tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/hurricanes-9045/articles
Hurricanes – The Conversation
2024-03-04T13:36:31Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/224904
2024-03-04T13:36:31Z
2024-03-04T13:36:31Z
Tornadoes, wildfires and other disasters tell a story of vulnerability and recovery in America
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579274/original/file-20240301-48072-ldn4z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C66%2C6300%2C4121&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Recovering after tornadoes, particularly in small towns, has many challenges. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SevereWeatherMississippi/61b370c8d262411c808d90ce32510603/photo">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People often think of disasters as great equalizers. After all, a tornado, wildfire or hurricane doesn’t discriminate against those in its path. But the consequences for those impacted are not “one-size-fits-all.”</p>
<p>That’s evident <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/weather/indiana-ohio-storm-tornado-damage-friday/index.html">in recent storms</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/texas-fires-with-over-1-million-acres-of-grassland-burned-cattle-ranchers-face-struggles-ahead-to-find-and-feed-their-herds-224840">wildfire disasters</a> and in the <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/household-pulse-phase-feb22.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a>’s newly released results from its national household surveys showing <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data.html">who was displaced by disasters in 2023</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, the Census Bureau estimates that nearly 2.5 million Americans had to leave their homes because of disasters in 2023, whether for a short period or much longer. However, a closer look at demographics in the survey reveals much more about disaster risk in America and who is vulnerable.</p>
<p>It suggests, <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-ca/Disasters%3A+A+Sociological+Approach-p-9780745671017">as researchers have also found</a>, that people with the fewest resources, as well as those who have disabilities or have been marginalized, were more likely to be displaced from their homes by disasters than other people.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walking in thigh-deep water crosses a road carrying a large bag. A National Guard truck brought her to the home to retrieve medications four days after the hurricane." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disasters like hurricanes can cut electricity and running water to homes for weeks at a time, and can make access to retrieve medication and belongings for those displaced nearly impossible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HurricaneIdaPhotoGallery/2490e0f63dcf439cb612f8c1d2ce1c21/photo">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Decades of <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-ca/Disasters%3A+A+Sociological+Approach-p-9780745671017">disaster research</a>, including from our team at the University of Delaware’s <a href="https://www.drc.udel.edu/">Disaster Research Center</a>, make at least two things crystal clear: First, people’s social circumstances – such as the resources available to them, how much they can rely on others for help, and challenges they face in their daily life – can lead them to experience disasters differently compared to others affected by the same event. And second, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Social-Vulnerability-to-Disasters/Thomas-Phillips-Lovekamp-Fothergill/p/book/9781466516373">disasters exacerbate</a> existing vulnerabilities.</p>
<p>This research also shows how disaster <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/after-great-disasters/9781558443310">recovery</a> is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.4337/9781839100307.00009">social process</a>. Recovery is not a “thing,” but rather it is linked to how we talk about recovery, make decisions about recovery and prioritize some activities over others.</p>
<h2>Lessons from past disasters</h2>
<p>Sixty years ago, the recovery period after the destructive 1964 Alaskan earthquake was driven by a range of <a href="https://udspace.udel.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/49cb0325-3638-49ae-9687-3f3ca1aabf1b/content">economic and political interests</a>, not simply technical factors or on need. That kind of influence continues in disaster recovery today. Even disaster buyout programs can be based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2272-5">economic considerations that burden under-resourced communities</a>.</p>
<p>This recovery process is made even more difficult because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04463-1">policymakers often underappreciate</a> the immense difficulties residents face during recovery.</p>
<p>Following Hurricane Katrina, sociologist Alexis Merdjanoff found that property ownership status <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2013.04.004">affected psychological distress and displacement</a>, with displaced renters showing higher levels of emotional distress than homeowners. Lack of autonomy in decisions about how to repair or rebuild can play a role, further highlighting disparate experiences during disaster recovery.</p>
<h2>What the Census shows about vulnerability</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/household-pulse-phase-feb22.html">2023 census data</a> consistently showed that socially vulnerable groups reported being displaced from their homes at higher rates than other groups.</p>
<p>People over 65 had a higher rate of being displaced than younger people. So did Hispanic and Black Americans, people with less than a high school education and those with low household incomes or who were struggling with employment compared to other groups. While the Census Bureau describes the data as experimental and notes that some sample sizes are small, the differences stand out and are consistent with what researchers have found.</p>
<p>Low-income and marginalized communities are often in areas at higher risk of flooding from storms or may <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2021-hurricane-season-showed-us-isnt-prepared-as-climate-related-disasters-push-people-deeper-into-poverty-169075">lack investment in storm protection measures</a>.</p>
<p>The morass of bureaucracy and conflicting information can also be a barrier to a swift recovery. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a polo shirt with a shirt reading " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">FEMA typically sets up recovery centers near disaster sites to help residents apply for federal aid. But getting to centers like this one near Lahaina, Hawaii, where a fire destroyed much of the town in 2023, can be difficult for people displaced by disasters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEMA_-_7977434.jpg">Department of Homeland Security</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After Hurricane Sandy, people in New Jersey complained about complex paperwork and what felt to them like ever-changing rules. They bemoaned their housing recovery as, in researchers’ words, a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04463-1">muddled, inconsistent experience that lacked discernible rationale</a>”.</p>
<p>Residents who don’t know how to find information about disaster recovery assistance or can’t take time away from work to accumulate the necessary documents and meet with agency representatives can have a harder time getting quick help from federal and state agencies.</p>
<p>Disabilities also affect displacement. Of those people who were displaced for some length of time in 2023, those with significant difficulty hearing, seeing or walking reported being displaced at higher rates than those without disabilities.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05638-8">Prolonged loss of electricity or water</a> due to an ice storm, wildfire or grid overload during a heat emergency can force those with medical conditions to leave even if their neighbors are able to stay. </p>
<p>That can also create challenges for their recovery. Displacement can leave vulnerable disaster survivors isolated from their usual support systems and health care providers. It can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000116">isolate those with limited mobility</a> from disaster assistance.</p>
<h2>Helping communities build resilience</h2>
<p>Crucial research efforts are underway to better help people who may be struggling the most after disasters.</p>
<p>For example, our center was part of an interdisciplinary team that developed a <a href="https://www.copewellmodel.org/">framework to predict community resilience</a> after disasters and help identify investments that could be made to bolster resilience. It outlines ways to identify gaps in community functioning, like health care and transportation, before disaster strikes. And it helps determine recovery strategies that would have the most impact.</p>
<p>Shifts in weather and climate and a mobile population mean that people’s exposure to hazards are constantly shifting and often increasing. The <a href="https://www.drc.udel.edu/cheer/">Coastal Hazard, Equity, Economic Prosperity, and Resilience Hub</a>, which our center is also part of, is developing tools to help communities best ensure resilience and strong economic conditions for all residents without shortchanging the need to prioritize equity and well-being. </p>
<p>We believe that when communities experience disasters, they should not have to choose among thriving economically, ensuring all residents can recover and reducing risk of future threats. There must be a way to account for all three.</p>
<p>Understanding that disasters affect people in different ways is only a first step toward ensuring that the most vulnerable residents receive the support they need. Involving community members from disproportionately vulnerable groups to identify challenges is another. But those, alone, are not enough.</p>
<p>If we as a society care about those who contribute to our communities, we must find the political and organizational will to act to reduce the challenges reflected in the census and disaster research.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published March 4, 2024, has been updated with severe storms in mid-March.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tricia Wachtendorf is co-director of the University of Delaware Disaster Research Center.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Kendra is co-director of the University of Delaware Disaster Research Center.</span></em></p>
Census data and research show all things are not equal in disaster displacement, as two experts in disaster recovery explain.
Tricia Wachtendorf, Professor of Sociology and Director, Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware
James Kendra, Director, Disaster Research Center and Professor, Public Policy & Administration, University of Delaware
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/220031
2024-02-07T13:12:18Z
2024-02-07T13:12:18Z
Power outages leave poor communities in the dark longer: Evidence from 15M outages raises questions about recovery times
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573708/original/file-20240206-24-a4nh4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5168%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Low-income communities often have a longer wait for electricity to come back after outages.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/457a5faae7c84a23947a3e781c5ce4a3">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity is essential to just about everyone – rich and poor, old and young. Yet, when severe storms strike, socioeconomically disadvantaged communities often wait longest to recover.</p>
<p>That isn’t just a perception.</p>
<p>We analyzed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad295">data from over 15 million consumers</a> in 588 U.S. counties who lost power when hurricanes made landfall between January 2017 and October 2020. The results show that poorer communities did indeed wait longer for the lights to go back on.</p>
<p>A 1-decile drop in socioeconomic status in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s <a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/index.html">social vulnerability index</a> was associated with a 6.1% longer outage on average. This corresponds to waiting an extra 170 minutes on average for power to be restored, and sometimes much longer. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two maps of the southeastern U.S. show a correlation between outages and social vulnerability." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The top map shows the total duration of power outages over eight storms by county. The lower map is a comparison with socioeconomic status taken into account, showing that counties with lower average socioeconomic status have longer outages than expected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/2/10/pgad295/7286530">Ganz et al, 2023, PNAS Nexus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Implications for policy and utilities</h2>
<p>One likely reason for this disparity is written into utilities’ <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/Restoration_Best_Practices_Guidebook_2018.pdf">standard storm recovery policies</a>. Often, these polices prioritize critical infrastructure first when restoring power after an outage, then large commercial and industrial customers. They next seek to recover as many households as they can as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>While this approach may seem procedurally fair, these recovery routines appear to have an unintended effect of often making vulnerable communities wait longer for electricity to be restored. One <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218883">reason may be</a> that these communities are farther from critical infrastructure, or they may be predominantly in older neighborhoods where power infrastructure requires more significant repairs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A store in Austin, Texas, is closed during a widespread power outage amid a winter cold snap in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Commercial areas are often higher on the priority list for faster power recovery in an outage. This store was still closed for several days during Texas’ widespread outages in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-states-that-a-fiesta-mart-is-closed-because-of-a-power-news-photo/1231222415?adppopup=true">Montinique Monroe/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The upshot is that households that are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/hurricanes-hit-the-poor-the-hardest/">already at greater risk</a> from severe weather – whether due to being in flood-prone areas or in vulnerable buildings – and those who are least likely to have insurance or other resources to help them recover are also likely to face the longest storm-caused power outages. Long outages can mean refrigerated food goes bad, no running water and delays in repairing damage, including delays in running fans to dry out water damage and avoid mold.</p>
<p>Our study spanned 108 service regions, including investor-owned utilities, cooperatives and public utilities. The differential impact on poorer communities did not line up with any particular storm, region or individual utility. We also found no correlation with race, ethnicity or housing type. Only average socioeconomic level stood out.</p>
<h2>How to make power recovery less biased</h2>
<p>There are ways to improve power recovery times for everyone, beyond the necessary work of improving the stability of power distribution.</p>
<p>Policymakers and utilities can start by reexamining power restoration practices and power infrastructure maintenance, such as replacing aging utility poles and trimming trees, with disadvantaged communities in mind.</p>
<p>Power providers already have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.07.006">granular data on power usage</a> and <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=9913670">grid performance in their service regions</a>. They can begin experimenting with alternative recovery routines that consider the vulnerability of their customers in ways that do not substantially affect average recovery duration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men look at cell phones in the dark on a porch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People in some Fort Myers, Fla., neighborhoods still lacked water and electricity more than a week after Hurricane Ian in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-states-that-a-fiesta-mart-is-closed-because-of-a-power-news-photo/1231222415?adppopup=true">Montinique Monroe/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For socioeconomically <a href="https://atlas.eia.gov/pages/04021248819144108b36cbf27327d11c">vulnerable regions</a> that are likely to experience long outages because of their locations and possibly the aging energy infrastructure, utilities and policymakers can proactively ensure that households are well prepared to evacuate or have access to backup sources of power.</p>
<p>For example, the U.S. Department of Energy announced in October 2023 that it would invest in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/gdo/articles/keeping-lights-our-neighborhoods-during-power-outages">developing dozens of resilience hubs and microgrids</a> to help supply local power to key buildings within communities when the wider grid goes down. Louisiana plans several of these hubs, using solar and large-scale batteries, in or near disadvantaged communities.</p>
<p>Policymakers and utilities can also invest in broader energy infrastructure and renewable energy in these vulnerable communities. The U.S. Department of Energy’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov/justice/justice40-initiative">Justice40 program</a> directs that 40% of the benefit from certain federal energy, transportation and housing investments benefit disadvantaged communities. That may help residents who need public help the most.</p>
<p>Severe weather events are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">becoming more common</a> as <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-billion-dollar-disasters-list-shattered-the-us-record-with-28-big-weather-and-climate-disasters-amid-earths-hottest-year-on-record-220634">global temperatures rise</a>. That increases the need for better planning and approaches that don’t leave low-income residents in the dark.</p>
<p><em>Chenghao Duan, a Ph.D. student at Georgia Tech, also contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220031/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Researchers tracked power outages after 8 major storms to see how wealth corresponded to recovery time.
Chuanyi Ji, Associate Professor of Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Scott C. Ganz, Associate Teaching Professor of Business and Economics, Georgetown University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/222736
2024-02-05T23:46:49Z
2024-02-05T23:46:49Z
Is it time for a Category 6 for super cyclones? No – warnings of floods or storm surges are more useful
<p>When a tropical cyclone forms, people who live in its path anxiously monitor news of its direction – and strength. If a Category 5 storm with wind speeds of 250 kilometres per hour is heading for you, you prepare differently than you would for a Category 1 with wind speeds of 65 km/h. </p>
<p>In a hotter world, cyclones are expected to become less common but <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">more intense</a> when they do form. That, according to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308901121">new research</a>, means it might be time to consider introducing a Category 6 to the hurricane scale used in the United States to better communicate the threat. </p>
<p>But do cyclone scales need a new category for more severe storms? Only one hurricane in the Western Hemisphere has yet gone past the 309 km/h winds the researchers nominate for a Category 6. And the whole idea of storm scales, including Australia’s own <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">tropical cyclone scale</a>, is that Category 5 storms are those likely to do catastrophic damage. It’s hard to see what a Category 6 could offer. </p>
<p>What is worth exploring is how we can better communicate what specific threats a given storm poses. Is it carrying more water than average, making flooding a bigger risk? Or are unusually intense winds likely to bring more water ashore in storm surges? </p>
<p>In December, Cyclone Jasper made landfall as a Category 2 storm in northern Queensland. Despite being at the lower end of severity, it dumped huge volumes of water and triggered devastating floods. Residents and farmers criticised the Bureau of Meteorology for not fully conveying the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-22/bom-warning-far-north-queensland-cyclone-floods-analysis/103256552">size of the threat</a>. More specific warnings could help. </p>
<h2>What are storm scales for?</h2>
<p>The world’s <a href="https://community.wmo.int/en/tropical-cyclone-regional-bodies#:%7E:text=The%20six%20tropical%20cyclone%20Regional,tropical%20cyclones%2C%20hurricanes%2C%20typhoons%20everywhere">tropical cyclone warning centres</a> classify cyclones using simple intensity scale systems based on maximum wind thresholds. Cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are different names for the same tropical storms.</p>
<p>There are several different intensity scales in use. The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php">Saffir-Simpson scale</a> is used by the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">US National Hurricane Center</a> for hurricanes forming in the central and eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic basins. Different scales are used in the Australian, North Indian, Southwest Indian, and western North Pacific basins. Importantly, every scale in use is open-ended, meaning their final category is based on winds greater than a certain threshold – but with no upper limit.</p>
<p>Tropical cyclones can pose many threat to us while at sea, as they approach and make landfall, and even afterwards.</p>
<p>These threats include the intense winds near the eye of the tropical cyclone, the ring of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/education/natural-hazards/tropical-cyclone-and-severe-wind">damaging winds</a> which can extend hundreds of kilometres from the eye, wind-driven high seas, storm surge, heavy rainfall and associated flooding and mudslides. </p>
<p>We can’t say one of these is definitively more deadly or damaging than any other threat. Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a 2013 Category 1 storm, led to heavy rainfall and flooding through Queensland and New South Wales, while the 1992 Category 5 Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic wind damage – but little rain or storm surge damage when it hit Florida.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-ilsa-just-broke-an-australian-wind-speed-record-an-expert-explains-why-the-science-behind-this-is-so-complex-203835">Cyclone Ilsa just broke an Australian wind speed record. An expert explains why the science behind this is so complex</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So do we really need a Category 6?</h2>
<p>The researchers suggest a Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson scale would be for storms with winds over 86 metres per second (309 km/h). </p>
<p>They suggest five tropical cyclones have now passed that threshold since 2013. Certainly, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia.pdf">Hurricane Patricia</a> (2015) would meet that threshold. But this is the only one which meets their criteria in the last 40 years, as it was well observed by US aircraft missions. The other four were not in the Western Hemisphere – they were typhoons affecting Asia. In these areas, meteorologists do not use aircraft reconnaissance to confirm wind speeds. Estimates of wind speeds can vary substantially. That means the wind speeds of these four cannot be verified. </p>
<p>To make their case, the researchers also use the maximum possible intensity a tropical cyclone could reach in a given environment. It’s useful to scientists because it can be directly calculated from climate projections and is often used to explore how tropical cyclone intensity might change in the future. But it has an important limitation – tropical cyclones <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/128/4/1520-0493_2000_128_1139_asaotc_2.0.co_2.xml">rarely reach</a> their maximum potential intensity. </p>
<p>In their original formulation of the Saffir-Simpson scale, Herb Saffir and Bob Simpson described a Category 5 hurricane making landfall as one which would cause catastrophic destruction of all infrastructure. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale</a> has different thresholds but similar reasoning for a Category 5 storm. </p>
<p>Based on the understanding that winds at Category 5 and above lead to catastrophic outcomes, it’s hard to see how adding a Category 6 would help the public. If a Category 5 means “expect catastrophic consequences”, what would Category 6 mean? </p>
<h2>How can we best communicate cyclone threats?</h2>
<p>Scientists came up with tropical cyclone intensity scales as a way to clearly communicate the nature and size of the damage likely to occur. They are not intended to be comprehensive, as they’re based on a single wind speed valid only for the area near the eye, where the most intense winds occur. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, these scales are meant to measure how well our buildings and infrastructure can survive the wind force and also protect us. If our building codes, evacuation plans, and other protective strategies ever improved to the point where Category 5 storms no longer lead to catastrophic loss, it might make sense to introduce a Category 6. But we’re not at that point. The catastrophic loss from a Category 5 or Category 6 would look the same: catastrophic. </p>
<p>What we should do is explore whether we can improve the scale in different ways. Can we keep their simple, effective messages while also capturing the different threats a weather system like this can pose? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-weak-tropical-cyclones-have-grown-more-intense-worldwide-we-tracked-30-years-of-them-using-currents-194891">Even weak tropical cyclones have grown more intense worldwide – we tracked 30 years of them using currents</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222736/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Ritchie-Tyo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Cyclones and hurricanes are getting more intense. But introducing new categories of storm may not be the answer.
Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/217999
2023-11-28T17:03:43Z
2023-11-28T17:03:43Z
How a small Caribbean island is trying to become hurricane-proof
<p>When Hurricane Maria struck the eastern Caribbean island of Dominica in 2017, it caused the kind of devastation which is unthinkable to larger countries. The Category 5 hurricane damaged <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/IB25092017.pdf">98% of building roofs</a> and caused US$1.2 billion (£950 million) in damage. Dominica effectively <a href="https://www.gfdrr.org/en/dominica-hurricane-maria-post-disaster-assessment-and-support-recovery-planning">lost 226% of its GDP</a> overnight.</p>
<p>Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the Caribbean and for small islands such as Dominica (not to be confused with the much larger Dominican Republic) it is an existential threat. </p>
<p>Unlike larger islands like Cuba or Jamaica, a single storm hitting Dominica can damage the entire country – with its mountainous terrain and steep slopes everywhere, most of the country is prone to either landslides or flooding. The topography and small size of the island imposes hard limits on its ability to adapt. </p>
<p>That’s why Dominica ranked 11th most at risk out of 150 countries in the <a href="https://www.germanwatch.org/en/19777">2021 Global Climate Risk Index</a>, based on an analysis of extreme weather between 2000 and 2019.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Street with damaged buildings and rubble" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561560/original/file-20231124-24-q59k3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maria destroyed much of Dominica’s rainforests, left most of its residents without water, and damaged almost every building on the island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hurricane-maria-on-island-dominica-force-723858046">Jean-Francois Manuel / shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Reeling from Hurricane Maria, the island’s prime minister Roosevelt Skerrit set the bold ambition of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2023/09/26/dominica-s-journey-to-become-the-world-s-first-climate-resilient-country#:%7E:text=On%20September%2023%2C%202017%2C%20when,world's%20first%20climate%20resilient%20nation.">becoming the first climate-resilient nation</a>. In Dominica’s case, this means being able to handle more intense hurricanes and more frequent flooding. </p>
<p>There was no “climate blueprint” to pick up and follow – it had to be created from scratch. Dominica developed a clear set of targets and a roadmap, combining everything from building design to nature-based power sources and climate resilient crop systems.</p>
<p>I am a climate resilience researcher with particular expertise in small island developing states. Over the years I have worked with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-chain-of-tiny-pacific-islands-wants-an-international-court-opinion-on-responsibility-for-the-climate-crisis-193595">Pacific islands threatened by rising seas</a> and Caribbean countries devastated by hurricanes. </p>
<p>In 2019, I was brought in to serve as an adviser to Dominica’s newly established <a href="https://www.creadominica.org/">climate resilience agency</a>. I helped draft the country’s <a href="https://dominica.gov.dm/images/documents/CRRP-Final-042020.pdf">climate resilience plan</a> and in early 2023 went back to film a documentary <a href="https://climate-blueprint.info/">Climate Blueprint: Dominica</a>. </p>
<p>In the film, some of the architects of the country’s climate resilience strategy explain how Dominica is building back better and stronger in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. They reveal four critical principles.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/852524346" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Buy-in from everyone</h2>
<p>Government must work across silos and no single agency or department can be responsible for building resilience. It is about agriculture, housing, roads and critically – because Dominica has more than 300 rivers – bridges. </p>
<p>It’s thinking about how and where infrastructure is built in relation to slopes, rivers and the sea. It’s also about education and buy in, to ensure island residents can effectively play their part.</p>
<p>The country has 20 targets for resilience by 2030, including an aim for all communities to be self-sufficient for 14 days following a disaster. The aim is for 90% of all housing to be built or retrofitted to comply with resilient building codes.</p>
<h2>Natural resources are key</h2>
<p>About two thirds of Dominica is covered in natural vegetation and forest. These plants, and the coral reefs surrounding the island, provide a critical buffer against winds and waves and so need to be protected. </p>
<p>This is part of the resilience plan, which increases protected forest areas and maintains healthy coral reefs around the island through monitoring, restoration, sustainable fishing and by reducing runoff of pesticides from agriculture into the sea.</p>
<p>Dominica’s natural assets can also fuel its growth – literally. Dominica aims to become carbon neutral through 100% domestic renewable energy production, which includes investment in a geothermal plant that will produce enough energy to export to neighbouring Guadeloupe and Martinique. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Steamy lake with forest in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561554/original/file-20231124-26-6d4mm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dominica is a volcanic hotspot and has the world’s second largest hot spring.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/titaniumthedog/2497495311/in/photolist-6AdiJY-qKA2ec-dG2dRk-dG2cht-MFqFY-METNo-4NGjkZ-qb64Zs-4NLyrf-qdnnb6-pgo5g1-7H1LnF-h6Bxt-7H1v3D-7Gfgdp-7Gffiz-7GfeeZ-7Gj92o-4bVbdr-6AdjPS-7Gjg49-7GjcWu-7Gje3N-7GfoXa-7GfaQK-FwQ28j-dHVhgn-dJ1JAW-dHVd38-dJ1ENU-dHVh4Z-dHVff2-tvXdqc-h6DCo-7GjiWA-7GjmXL-7GfbYr-7Gfn1Z-7GjoZ7-7Gjf3m-4bVbdn-7GfmdD-dHVegg-dJ1FHE-dHVdYK-dHVfCT-4bVbdv-dJ1Hhu-Ygycbw-Xjp6FP">Titanium Hedgehog / flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learn from history and indigenous practices</h2>
<p>The plantation economy imposed on Dominica under British rule – which focused on one crop after another (sugar, cocoa, limes, then bananas) – was not well suited to the country’s difficult <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-019-0215-z">terrain and frequency of economic and environmental shocks</a>. Each crop failed, wiped out by hurricanes, disease and global food price rises. </p>
<p>Yet Dominica also has the Caribbean’s largest remaining indigenous community, and the Kalinago people have farming practices that combine crop diversification with planting methods that help stabilise slopes. </p>
<p>Applying <a href="https://unfoundation.org/blog/post/the-caribbeans-last-indigenous-community-is-living-proof-that-sustainability-is-survival/">lessons from history and indigenous practices</a> is key to building resilience in Dominica and a priority for environment minister Cozier Frederick, himself of Kalinago descent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Girl in pink dress with hair band" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561556/original/file-20231124-27-ql43t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kalinago people make up about 3,000 of Dominica’s 74,000 population.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/29574156@N04/14252390145/">Bart / flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A collective voice with other islands</h2>
<p>Dominica’s climate blueprint should be seen as an opportunity for donors and development partners to support a vision that already exists. But there is geopolitics at play here as well.</p>
<p>Rich nations have yet to fulfil the goal of US$100 billion in climate finance for poorer nations. Analysis colleagues and I carried out for the <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/a-fair-share-of-resilience-finance/">think tank ODI</a> found that small island developing nations received four times less finance for climate resilience than least developed countries, as a percentage of GDP. Nations like Dominica have found it a huge challenge to navigate bureaucracies to access this vital finance.</p>
<p>That’s why Caribbean heads of state are increasingly finding their voice on the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/11/cop27-un-climate-barbados-mottley-climate-finance-imf/">wider global financial system</a>, with Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley spearheading the Bridgetown Initiative, a set of financial reforms which would benefit highly indebted and climate-vulnerable Caribbean states and other developing countries.</p>
<p>Barbados’s leadership on finance and Dominica’s resilience story together show how small islands can have an outsized impact by taking leadership on the climate crisis. </p>
<p>As Skerrit, the Dominica prime minister, said in a <a href="https://resilientcaribbean.caricom.org/dominica-prime-minister-roosevelt-skerrit-addresses-the-un-general-assembly/">2017 address to the UN</a>: “We as a country and as a region did not start this war against nature. We did not provoke it. The war has come to us. […] We are in shock, but we will rise, because Dominican people are strong. Because Caribbean people are resilient.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217999/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ODI receives funding from the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and from UKRI.</span></em></p>
After Dominica was devastated by Hurricane Maria, it wanted a climate-resilient future.
Emily Wilkinson, Director, Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative at the ODI, and Co-director, Caribbean Resilience and Recovery Knowledge Network, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/217147
2023-11-07T13:36:33Z
2023-11-07T13:36:33Z
Acapulco was built to withstand earthquakes, but not Hurricane Otis’ destructive winds – how building codes failed this resort city
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557873/original/file-20231106-267225-w11vn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C3593%2C2246&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Acapulco's beachfront condo towers were devastated by Hurricane Otis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-damages-caused-by-the-passage-of-hurricane-news-photo/1750791993">Rodrigo Oropeza/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Acapulco wasn’t prepared when Hurricane Otis struck as a powerful Category 5 storm on Oct. 25, 2023. The short notice as the <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">storm rapidly intensified</a> over the Pacific Ocean wasn’t the only problem – the Mexican resort city’s buildings weren’t designed to handle anything close to Otis’ 165 mph winds.</p>
<p>While Acapulco’s oceanfront high-rises were built to withstand <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/strong-quake-rocks-mexicos-acapulco-damaging-airport-killing-one-2021-09-08/">the region’s powerful earthquakes</a>, they had a weakness. </p>
<p>Since powerful hurricanes are <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes">rare in Acapulco</a>, Mexico’s <a href="https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/247555/300617_EvaluacionEstructuras_02-Viento.pdf">building codes didn’t require</a> that their exterior materials be able to hold up to extreme winds. In fact, those materials were often kept light to help meet earthquake building standards.</p>
<p>Otis’ powerful winds ripped off exterior cladding and shattered windows, exposing bedrooms and offices to the wind and rain. The storm <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/death-toll-from-hurricane-otis-hits-48-with-36-missing-as-search-and-recovery-continues">took dozens of lives</a> and caused <a href="https://www.reinsurancene.ws/corelogic-pegs-hurricane-otis-insurable-loss-at-10bn-to-15bn/">billions of dollars in damage</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large glass tower with sloping sides, like a sliced egg, reflects the sunrise with the Pacific Ocean looking placid in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A US$130 million luxury condo building on the beach in Acapulco before Hurricane Otis struck on Oct. 25, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hamid Arabzadeh, PhD., P.Eng.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A stormy sky shows through the floors that were once apartments." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same Acapulco condo tower after Hurricane Otis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hamid Arabzadeh, PhD., P.Eng.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I have worked on engineering strategies to enhance disaster resilience for over three decades and recently wrote a book, “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781633888234/The-Blessings-of-Disaster-The-Lessons-That-Catastrophes-Teach-Us-and-Why-Our-Future-Depends-on-It">The Blessings of Disaster</a>,” about the gambles humans take with disaster risk and how to increase resilience. Otis provided a powerful example of one such gamble that exists when building codes rely on probabilities that certain hazards will occur based on recorded history, rather than considering the severe consequences of storms that can devastate entire cities.</p>
<h2>The fatal flaw in building codes</h2>
<p>Building codes typically provide “<a href="https://asce7hazardtool.online/">probabilistic-based” maps</a> that specify wind speeds that engineers must consider when designing buildings. </p>
<p>The problem with that approach lies in the fact that “probabilities” are simply the odds that extreme events of a certain size will occur in the future, mostly calculated based on past occurrences. Some models may include additional considerations, but these are still typically anchored in known experience. </p>
<p>This is all good science. Nobody argues with that. It allows engineers to design structures in accordance with a consensus on what are deemed acceptable <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019">return periods</a> for various hazards, referring to the likelihood of those disasters occurring. Return periods are a somewhat arbitrary assessment of what is a reasonable balance between minimizing risk and keeping building costs reasonable.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=13360">probabilistic maps</a> only capture the odds of the hazard occurring. A <a href="https://hazards.atcouncil.org/">probabilistic map</a> might specify a wind speed to consider for design, irrespective of whether that given location is a small town with a few hotels or a megapolis with high-rises and complex urban infrastructure. In other words, probabilistic maps do not consider the consequences when an extreme hazard exceeds the specified value and “all hell breaks loose.”</p>
<h2>How probability left Acapulco exposed</h2>
<p>According to the Mexican building code, hotels, condos and other commercial and office buildings in Acapulco must be <a href="https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/247555/300617_EvaluacionEstructuras_02-Viento.pdf">designed to resist 88 mph winds</a>, corresponding to the strongest wind likely to occur on average once every 50 years there. That’s a Category 1 storm.</p>
<p>A 200-year return period for wind is used for essential facilities, such as hospital and school buildings, <a href="https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/247555/300617_EvaluacionEstructuras_02-Viento.pdf">corresponding to 118 mph winds</a>. But over a building’s life span of, say, 50 years, that still leaves a 22% chance that winds exceeding 118 mph will occur (yes, the world of statistics is that sneaky). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of the Mexico area with lots of storm tracks offshore and a few crossing land in the southern part of the country." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mexico’s hurricane history in storm tracks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of the Acapulco area with lots of storm tracks offshore and a few crossing land." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A century of hurricane storm tracks near Acapulco show several offshore storms that brought strong winds and rain to the city, but few direct landfalls. Acapulco Bay is in the center of the map on the coast. Red, pink and purple lines are categories 3, 4 and 5, respectively.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The probability wind maps for both return periods show Acapulco experiences lower average wind speeds than much of the 400 miles of Mexican coast north of the city. Yet, Acapulco is a major city, with a metropolitan population of over 1 million. It also has <a href="https://skyscraperpage.com/cities/?cityID=586&offset=100&statusID=1">more than 50 buildings</a> taller than 20 stories, according to the SkyscraperPage, a database of skyscrapers, and it is the only city with buildings that tall along that stretch of the Pacific coast.</p>
<p>Designing for a 50-year return period in this case is questionable, as it implies a near 100% chance of encountering wind exceeding this design value for a building with a 50-year life span or greater. </p>
<h2>Florida faces similiar challenges</h2>
<p>The shortcomings of probabilistic-based maps that specify wind speeds have also been observed in the United States. For example, new buildings along most of Florida’s coast must be able to <a href="https://www.flrules.org/gateway/readRefFile.asp?refId=13160&filename=Florida_Building_Code_7thEdition_1609_3_Tables.pdf">resist 140 mph winds</a> or greater, but there are a few exceptions. One is the Big Bend area where <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2023/09/02/map-idalia-flooding-big-bend-surge/">Hurricane Idalia made landfall</a> in 2023. Its design wind speed is about 120 mph instead.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://codes.iccsafe.org/content/FLBC2023P1/chapter-16-structural-design#FLBC2023P1_Ch16_Sec1609">2023 update to the Florida Building Code</a> raised the minimum wind speed to approximately 140 mph in Mexico Beach, the Panhandle town that was <a href="https://mexicobeachfl.gov/uploads/2022/06/Wind-load-Ordinance-21919.pdf">devastated by Hurricane Michael</a> in 2018. The Big Bend exception may be the next one to be eliminated.</p>
<h2>Acapulco’s earthquake design weakness</h2>
<p>A saving grace for Acapulco is that it is located in one of <a href="https://mexicodailypost.com/2021/04/19/earthquake-map-30-of-mexico-under-high-seismic-risk/">Mexico’s most active seismic risk zones</a> – for example, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/07/world/mexico-earthquake">magnitude 7 earthquake struck nearby in 2021</a>. As a result, the lateral-load-resisting structural systems in tall buildings there are designed to resist seismic forces that are generally larger than hurricane forces.</p>
<p>However, a drawback is that the larger the mass of a building, <a href="https://www.wbdg.org/resources/seismic-design-principles">the larger the seismic forces</a> the building must be designed to resist. Consequently, light materials were typically used for the cladding – the exterior surface of the building that protects it against the weather – because that translates into lower seismic forces. This light cladding was not able to withstand hurricane-force winds.</p>
<p>Had the cladding not failed, the full wind forces would have been transferred to the structural system, and the buildings would have survived with little or no damage.</p>
<h2>A ‘good engineering approach’ to hazards</h2>
<p>A better building code could go one step beyond “good science” probabilistic maps and adopt a “<a href="https://michelbruneau.com/TheBlessingsOfDisaster.htm">good engineering approach</a>” by taking stock of the consequences of extreme events occurring, not just the odds that they will.</p>
<p>In Florida, the incremental cost of designing for wind speeds of 140 mph rather than 120 mph is marginal compared to total building cost, given that cladding able to resist more than 140 mph is already used in nearly all of the state. In Acapulco, with the spine of buildings already able to resist earthquake forces much larger than hurricane forces, designing cladding that can withstand stronger hurricane-level forces is likely to be an even smaller percentage of total project cost.</p>
<p>Someday, the way that design codes deal with extreme events such as hurricanes, not only in Mexico, will hopefully evolve to more broadly account for what is at risk at the urban scale. Unfortunately, as I explain in “<a href="https://michelbruneau.com/TheBlessingsOfDisaster.htm">The Blessings of Disaster</a>,” we will see more extreme disasters before society truly becomes disaster resilient.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michel Bruneau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The best science is not always the best engineering when it comes to building codes. It’s also a problem across the US, as an engineer who works on disaster resilience explains.
Michel Bruneau, Professor of Engineering, University at Buffalo
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216562
2023-10-30T16:58:07Z
2023-10-30T16:58:07Z
Extreme weather is outpacing even the worst-case scenarios of our forecasting models
<p>In the wake of the destructive Hurricane Otis, we find ourselves at a pivotal moment in the history of weather forecasting. The hurricane roared ashore with 165mph winds and torrential rainfall, slamming into the coastal city of Acapulco, Mexico and claiming the lives of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mexico-hurricane-otis-acapulco-50eb6a8fe677455428cbacfd3966e72c">at least 48 people</a>. </p>
<p>The speed at which Otis intensified was unprecedented. Within 12 hours it went from a regular tropical storm to a “category 5” hurricane, the most powerful category and one which might occur only a few times worldwide each year. </p>
<p>This rare and alarming event, described by the US National Hurricane Center as a “<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.012.shtml">nightmare scenario</a>”, broke records for the fastest intensification rate over a 12-hour period in the eastern Pacific. Otis not only caught residents and authorities off guard but also exposed the limitations of our current predictive tools.</p>
<p>I specialise in <a href="https://uel.ac.uk/about-uel/staff/ravindra-jayaratne">the study of natural disasters</a> with the goal of improving our ability to predict them and ultimately to save lives. It is critical that we address the pressing concerns related to the tools we use for forecasting these catastrophic events, all while recognising the significant influence of rapid climate change on our forecasting capabilities.</p>
<h2>The predictive tools we rely on</h2>
<p>At the core of weather forecasting are computer programs, or “models”, that blend atmospheric variables such as temperature, humidity, wind and pressure, with fundamental physics. </p>
<p>Since the atmospheric processes are nonlinear, a small degree of uncertainty in initial atmospheric conditions can lead to a large discrepancy in final forecasts. That’s why the general practice now is to forecast a set of possible scenarios rather than predict the single scenario most likely to occur.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite map of hurricane" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556342/original/file-20231027-19-pg87mf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Otis reaches its maximum intensity just as it hits Acapulco on October 25.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Otis_2023-10-25_0300Z.jpg">ABI / NOAA GOES-16 / wiki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But while these models are instrumental in issuing early warnings and evacuation orders, they have fundamental limitations and carry a significant degree of uncertainty, especially when dealing with rare or extreme weather. This uncertainty arises from various factors including the <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2011.0161">fundamentally chaotic nature of the system</a>.</p>
<p>First, the historical data is incomplete, since a hurricane such as Otis might occur only once in several millennia. We don’t know when an east Pacific storm last turned into a category 5 hurricane overnight – if ever – but it was certainly before modern satellites and weather buoys. Our models struggle to account for these “one in 1,000-year events” because we simply haven’t observed them before.</p>
<p>The complex physics governing the weather also has to be simplified in these predictive models. While this approach is effective for common scenarios, it falls short when dealing with the intricacies of extreme events that involve rare combinations of variables and factors.</p>
<p>And then there are the unknown unknowns: factors our models cannot account for because we are unaware of them, or they have not been integrated into our predictive frameworks. Unanticipated interactions among various climatic drivers can lead to unprecedented intensification, as was the case with Hurricane Otis. </p>
<h2>The role of climate change</h2>
<p>To all this we can add the problem of climate change and its impact on extreme weather. Hurricanes, in particular, are influenced by rising sea surface temperatures, which provides more energy for storms to form and intensify. </p>
<p>The connection between climate change and the intensification of hurricanes, coupled with other factors such as high precipitation or high tides, is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2">becoming clearer</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1717644354624299402"}"></div></p>
<p>With established weather patterns being altered, it is becoming even more challenging to predict the behaviour of storms and their intensification. Historical data may no longer serve as a reliable guide.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>The challenges are formidable but not insurmountable. There are a few steps we can take to enhance our forecasting and better prepare for the uncertainties that lie ahead.</p>
<p>The first would be to develop more advanced predictive models that integrate a broader range of factors and variables, as well as consider worst-case scenarios. Artificial intelligence and machine learning tools can help us process vast and complex datasets more efficiently. </p>
<p>But to get this additional data we’ll have to invest in more weather monitoring stations, satellite technology, AI tools and atmospheric and oceanographic research. </p>
<p>Since even world experts and their models can be caught out by sudden weather extremes, we also need to educate the public about the limitations and uncertainties in weather forecasting. </p>
<p>We must encourage preparedness and a proactive response to warnings, even when predictions seem uncertain. And of course we still have to mitigate climate change itself: the root cause of intensifying weather events. </p>
<p>Hurricane Otis provided a stark and immediate reminder of the inadequacies of our current predictive tools in the face of rapid climate change and increasingly extreme weather events. The urgency to adapt and innovate in the realm of weather forecasting has never been greater. </p>
<p>It is incumbent upon us to rise to the occasion and usher in a new era of prediction that can keep pace with the ever-shifting dynamics of our planet’s climate. Our future depends on it.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ravindra Jayaratne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
A deadly hurricane developed in just 12 hours.
Ravindra Jayaratne, Reader in Coastal Engineering, University of East London
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/213242
2023-09-12T06:59:23Z
2023-09-12T06:59:23Z
Faster disaster: climate change fuels ‘flash droughts’, intense downpours and storms
<p>The run of extreme weather events around the world seems to be never-ending. After the northern summer of extreme heat and disastrous fires, we’ve seen more exceptional autumn weather over Europe with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66743788">record-breaking heat</a> in the UK. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, record-breaking rain and intense flash floods <a href="https://theconversation.com/greeces-record-rainfall-and-flash-floods-are-part-of-a-trend-across-the-mediterranean-the-weather-is-becoming-more-dangerous-213164">struck Greece</a> before the same storm <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/powerful-storm-rolls-through-eastern-libya-killing-least-three-2023-09-11/">devastated Libya</a>, with thousands dead. </p>
<p>Almost 20% of Africa is estimated to be <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global-drought/202307">in drought</a>, and drought conditions <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/#:%7E:text=For%20the%204%2Dmonth%20period,area%20in%20south%2Deastern%20Queensland.">are returning</a> to parts of Australia. To top it off, we’ve seen several hurricanes intensify <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/hurricane-lees-hyper-intensification-in-atlantic-is-rewriting-rules-for-powerful-storms/3131529/">unusually quickly</a> in the Atlantic.</p>
<p>We know climate change underpins some of the more extreme weather we’re seeing. But is it also pushing these extreme events to happen faster? </p>
<p>The answer? Generally, yes. Here’s how.</p>
<h2>Flash droughts</h2>
<p>We usually think of droughts as slowly evolving extreme events which take months to form. </p>
<p>But that’s no longer a given. We’ve seen some recent droughts develop unexpectedly quickly, giving rise to the phrase “<a href="https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-can-dry-out-soil-in-weeks-new-research-shows-what-they-look-like-in-australia-161286">flash drought</a>”. </p>
<p>How does this happen? It’s when a lack of rainfall in a region combines with high temperatures and sunny conditions with low humidity. When these conditions are in place, it increases how much moisture the atmosphere is trying to pull from the land through evaporation. The end result: faster drying-out of the ground. </p>
<p>Flash droughts tend to be short, so they don’t tend to cause the major water shortages or dry river beds we’ve seen during long droughts in parts of Australia and <a href="https://time.com/cape-town-south-africa-water-crisis/">South Africa</a>, for example. But they can cause real problems for farmers. Farmers in parts of <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/drought-confronts-parts-of-australia-ecologists-are-back-on-alert">eastern Australia</a> are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-10/drought-conditions-in-hunter-valley-sees-farmers-destocking/102702548">already grappling</a> with the sudden return of drought after three years of rainy La Niña conditions. </p>
<p>As we continue to warm the planet, we’ll see more flash droughts and more intense ones. That’s because dry conditions will more often coincide with higher temperatures as relative humidity falls across many land regions.</p>
<h2>Flash floods and extreme rainfall</h2>
<p>Climate change can cause increased rainfall variability. Some parts of the world will get a lot wetter, on average, while others will get drier, increasing the variation in rainfall between different regions. For Australia, most locations are generally expected to have intensified downpours of rain, as well as intensified droughts. So we might be saying more often “it doesn’t rain, it pours!”.</p>
<p>We’re seeing exceptionally extreme rainfall in many recent events. The recent floods that submerged villages in Greece came from a sudden downpour of over 500 millimetres in a single day. Hong Kong was hit last week by the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66748239">heaviest rains</a> in 140 years, flooding subway stations and turning streets into rivers. </p>
<p>But why does it happen so quickly? </p>
<p>Sudden extreme rains fall when we have very moist air coupled with a weather system that forces air to rise. </p>
<p>We’ve long known human-caused climate change is increasing how much moisture the air can hold generally, rising by about 7% per degree of global warming. That means storms now have the potential to hold and dump more water. </p>
<p>Notably, the impact of climate change on rain-bearing weather systems can vary by region, which makes the picture <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-why-climate-change-isnt-always-to-blame-for-extreme-rainfall-206958">more complicated</a>. That means, for instance, climate change may lead to more extreme rain in some places, while other places may only see an intensification in really short extreme rain events and not for longer timescales.</p>
<p>We can safely say, though, that in most parts of the world, we’re seeing more intense storms and sudden extreme rainfall. Sudden dumps of rain drive flash floods. </p>
<p>More moisture in the air helps fuel more intense convection, where warm air masses rise and form clouds. In turn, this can trigger efficient, quick and intense dumps of rain <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05167-9">from thunderstorms</a>. </p>
<p>These short-duration rain events can be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0245-3">much larger</a> than you’d expect from the 7% increase in moisture per degree of warming. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/think-storms-are-getting-worse-rapid-rain-bursts-in-sydney-have-become-at-least-40-more-intense-in-2-decades-194159">Think storms are getting worse? Rapid rain bursts in Sydney have become at least 40% more intense in 2 decades</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Flash cyclones? Hurricanes are intensifying faster</h2>
<p>Last month, Hurricane Idalia caused <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-31/in-pictures-the-aftermath-of-hurricane-idalia-in-florida/102797050">major flooding</a> in Florida. As we write, Hurricane Lee <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/11/weather/hurricane-lee-path-monday-climate/index.html">is approaching</a> the US. </p>
<p>Both tropical storms had something odd about them – <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-rapid-intensification-of-hurricane-lee-is-a-warning/">unusually rapid intensification</a>. That is, they got much stronger in a short period of time. </p>
<p>Usually, this process might increase wind speeds by about 50 kilometres per hour over a 24-hour period for a hurricane – also known as tropical cyclones and typhoons. But Lee’s wind speeds increased by 129km/h over that period. US meteorological expert Marshall Shepherd <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/hurricane-lees-hyper-intensification-in-atlantic-is-rewriting-rules-for-powerful-storms/3131529/">has dubbed</a> the phenomenon “hyperintensification”, which could put major population centres at risk. </p>
<p>Rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones are strong and can be very hazardous, but they aren’t very common. To trigger them, you need a combination of very high sea surface temperatures, moist air and wind speeds that don’t change much with height. </p>
<p>While still uncommon, rapid intensification is potentially getting <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2">more frequent</a> as we heat the planet. This is because oceans have taken up so much of the heat and there’s more moisture in the air. There’s much more still to learn here. </p>
<h2>Australia’s El Niño summer in a warming world</h2>
<p>Spring and summer in Australia are likely to be <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/">warmer and drier</a> than usual. This is due to the El Niño climate cycle predicted for the Pacific Ocean. If, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#msdynttrid=XL3BpvuiPgehBoCurLyjEeIZ7o9Bhy1Tl2f7mfXiHzw">as predicted</a>, we also get a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, this can heighten the hotter, drier weather brought by El Niño. After three wet La Niña years, this is likely to be a marked shift. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-indian-ocean-and-el-nino-join-forces-things-can-get-hot-and-dry-48969">When the Indian Ocean and El Niño join forces, things can get hot and dry</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If it arrives as expected, El Niño would lower the risk of tropical cyclones for northern Australia and reduce chances of heavy rain across most of the continent. </p>
<p>But for farmers, it may help trigger flash droughts. Prevailing warm and dry conditions may rapidly dry the land and reduce crop yields and slow livestock growth.</p>
<p>Drier surfaces coupled with grass growth from the wet years could <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-spring-2023">worsen fire risk</a>. Grass can dry out much faster than shrubs or trees, and grass fires can start and spread very rapidly.</p>
<p>Climate change loads the dice for extreme weather. And as we’re now seeing, these extremes aren’t just more intense – they can happen remarkably fast. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-can-dry-out-soil-in-weeks-new-research-shows-what-they-look-like-in-australia-161286">'Flash droughts' can dry out soil in weeks. New research shows what they look like in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives research funding from the University of Melbourne. </span></em></p>
We all know climate change makes extreme weather more likely. But it’s also loading the dice for quick-forming drought, sudden and intense rainfall and fast-forming tropical storms.
Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne
Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/206483
2023-09-08T19:45:24Z
2023-09-08T19:45:24Z
Hurricane Lee: How studying hurricane Fiona’s legacy in Atlantic Canada can help us better prepare for future storms
<p>Atlantic Canada is bracing for hurricane Lee as the storm is <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/hurricane-lee-municipality-storm-prep-1.6967931">forecast to make landfall in the Maritimes on Saturday</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html">hurricane watch</a> is in effect on Friday for parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, including Halifax, with <a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/environment-canada-extends-hurricane-watch-to-halifax-as-very-large-lee-approaches-1.6562988">strong winds, heavy rain and widespread power outages expected</a>. </p>
<p>As hurricane Lee approaches, it provides a timely opportunity to reflect on hurricane Fiona, one year later.</p>
<p>The aftermath of <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9153571/photos-hurricane-fiona-eastern-canada-damage/">hurricane Fiona in Atlantic Canada</a> not only points to the importance of studying how storms affect our communities and their patterns, but also underscores Canada’s need to better prepare. It also raises an interesting question: can hurricane Fiona give us a hint about what future climate change might bring to Eastern Canada? </p>
<p>Unravelling this question could lie in understanding ancient storm records. </p>
<h2>An unprecedented hurricane</h2>
<p>Usually, hurricanes that reach Eastern Canada’s shores weaken into post-tropical cyclones as they enter Canada’s colder waters. Nevertheless, Fiona reached Nova Scotia with winds as strong as a Category 2 hurricane, thanks to an <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072022_Fiona.pdf">extraordinary low atmospheric pressure of 931.2 mb</a>. This led to widespread destruction and made Fiona <a href="https://www.ibc.ca/stay-protected/severe-weather-centre/hurricane-fiona">the most expensive extreme weather event in Atlantic Canada’s history</a>. </p>
<p>Eastern Canada’s coastline is no stranger to destructive hurricane force winds. Situated at the northern edge of the Atlantic hurricane track, the Maritimes region has faced several tropical storms and hurricanes like <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/3776504/a-look-back-at-hurricane-juan-14-years-after-it-tore-through-atlantic-canada/">hurricane Juan</a> in 2003, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/hurricane-igor-10-years-later-1.5729975">hurricane Igor</a> in 2010 and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/snoddon-dorianrecap-weather-1.5712159">hurricane Dorian</a> in 2019. </p>
<p>Between 1900 and 2019, the <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/cndn-dsstr-dtbs/index-en.aspx">Canadian Disaster Database</a> recorded 35 similar events that have totalled damages exceeding $300 million. Adding Fiona, with its <a href="https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/news/insured-damages-from-hurricane-fiona-now-over-800-million">$800 million in insured damages</a>, will almost quadruple that number. </p>
<p>By most aspects, hurricane Fiona proved to be a record-breaking event in Canada’s history, showing us how important it is for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-bill-blair-fiona-recovery-1.6662836">communities to think about long-term resilience</a>. The issue is that we do not have a very good idea of how much hurricanes might affect us in the future, making it harder for communities to prepare for such events.</p>
<h2>Challenges in predicting hurricane risks</h2>
<p>Estimating whether a hurricane will hit a specific location remains complex. Forecasts are mostly limited to short-term outlooks. For instance, Environment and Climate Change Canada predicted a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2023/05/environment-and-climate-change-canada-presents-the-2023-hurricane-season-outlook0.html">near-normal hurricane season for 2023</a>, but they cannot offer forecasts for the next decade.</p>
<p>While we may not predict exact hits, it’s possible to estimate the chances of a hurricane affecting a certain coastal area each year. A crucial part of this involves calculating <a href="https://noaa.gov/stories/what-are-chances-hurricane-will-hit-my-home">return periods for severe storms</a> — how often a hurricane of a certain strength is expected to happen. For example, if a major hurricane has a return of 50 years, we might expect about two of these storms in the next 100 years.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5m68_07Sav4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of how hurricanes form from Insider Decoded.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This method, however, assumes that storm frequency remains consistent over time, which isn’t always the case and will become increasingly untrue as global warming continues unabated. The climate isn’t stationary, meaning what’s extreme today might be normal tomorrow, and vice versa. </p>
<p>A hurricane with a 50-year return period today could have that period reduced in the future — perhaps to 20 years. This poses a challenge for communities. Structures and policies to protect communities from harmful storms are based on historical (the last 150 years) extremes, which may not align with future realities. </p>
<h2>Reconstructing storm history for resilience</h2>
<p>To understand future storms better, <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology/paleo-perspectives/global-warming">we can turn to paleo-tempestology, which examines past storms using natural archives like sediment cores</a>. Storm surges, for instance, can overcome sandy barriers and leave sediment layers in areas normally secluded from storm impacts, like a wetland or a coastal lake. By identifying and dating these layers, we can estimate the frequency of past storms. </p>
<p>With this technique, researchers have uncovered traces of pre-historic storms in various places, including in peat bogs, mineral deposits, blue holes, and even in tree rings. And these investigations often lead to the discovery of extremely powerful hurricanes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadians-are-unprepared-for-natural-hazards-heres-what-we-can-do-about-it-201863">Canadians are unprepared for natural hazards. Here's what we can do about it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For instance, the flooding magnitude of hurricane Sandy, which hit New York City in 2012, was previously thought to occur once in a thousand years. However, analysis from a Staten Island sediment core revealed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/srep07366">an even more intense hurricane related surge dating back to 1821</a>, significantly changing the perception of hurricane risk in that region. This hurricane is known only through historical accounts and had gone under the radar of research since it occurred before regularized data on tide levels became the norm.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021584">More recent research has likewise</a> yielded similar results in a study comparing the return period of a hurricane capable of generating a surge exceeding five metres in Appalachian Bay, Florida, using historical and paleo-storm records. The return period, initially estimated at 400 years based on historical data, was reduced by a factor of 10 to a 40-year return period when incorporating the longer paleo-storm record. </p>
<p>In Eastern Canada, a paleo-storm reconstruction from Nova Scotia showed that the region experienced <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2018.09.012">at least four hurricanes comparable to or more powerful than hurricane Juan between the 15th and 17th centuries</a>. </p>
<p>These studies tell us that relying solely on historical data for protecting our coastal communities can lead to a significant underestimation of hurricane risks. This approach might not provide sufficient long-term protection in an era of climate change.</p>
<h2>Canada’s window of opportunity</h2>
<p>Hurricane Fiona struck Canada during the federal government’s effort to establish a <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-urgently-needs-a-fema-like-emergency-management-agency-207400">comprehensive emergency management model</a>, an effort prompted by a rising frequency of disasters in the last 10 years. Although the resulting <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2023-nrp-pnr/2023-npr-pnr-en.pdf">National Risk Profile</a> doesn’t yet include hurricanes, it plans to in its next public release.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-federal-disaster-aid-fema-is-running-out-of-money-but-these-strategies-can-help-survivors-of-hurricane-idalia-and-the-maui-fires-get-aid-faster-212309">How to get federal disaster aid: FEMA is running out of money, but these strategies can help survivors of Hurricane Idalia and the Maui fires get aid faster</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The National Risk Profile is a promising initial step towards building resilience in the face of extreme events. To truly achieve this goal, developing accurate risk assessment tailored to our coastal communities is imperative. </p>
<p>To do so, Canada’s government has a responsibility to leverage research into long-term hurricane risks as part of its initial national-level risk assessment. Promoting paleo-storm research in Eastern Canada and integrating it into the National Risk Profile is one way to better protect and enhance the resilience of our coastal communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antoine Lachance receives funding from the Fond de recherche du Québec Nature and technologies. </span></em></p>
Can Hurricane Fiona give us a hint about what future climate change might bring to Eastern Canada? Unravelling this question could lie in understanding ancient storm records.
Antoine Lachance, PhD student, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212309
2023-08-31T12:20:32Z
2023-08-31T12:20:32Z
How to get federal disaster aid: FEMA is running out of money, but these strategies can help survivors of Hurricane Idalia and the Maui fires get aid faster
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545636/original/file-20230830-17-r1jp9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1077%2C817%2C1598%2C1064&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Idalia inundated parts of Tarpon Springs, Fla., and other coastal communities on Aug. 30, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/makatla-ritchter-wades-through-flood-waters-after-having-to-news-photo/1648494340">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As questions loom over the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fema-administrator-deanne-criswell-face-the-nation-transcript-08-20-2023/">ability to fund disaster recovery efforts</a>, people whose homes were damaged or destroyed by <a href="https://www.fema.gov/disaster/current">recent wildfires and storms</a> are trying to make their way through the difficult process of securing financial aid.</p>
<p>Residents in communities hit by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/florida-hurricane-idalia-2136985ceea53f5deb600c43aeea1138">Hurricane Idalia</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-maui-fires-human-health-risks-linger-in-the-air-water-and-even-surviving-buildings-211404">Maui fires</a> or other recent disasters have a long, tough journey ahead. Early estimates suggest Idalia caused <a href="https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2023/weekly-market-outlook-a-win-for-the-doves.pdf">US$12 billion to $20 billion in losses</a>, primarily in property damage, acccording to Moody’s Analytics. And rebuilding Lahaina, Hawaii, has been forecast at <a href="https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12683">over $5.5 billion</a>. </p>
<p>How well the initial disaster response meets residents’ needs has far-reaching consequences for community resilience, especially for <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-damage-harms-the-most-vulnerable-reveals-inequality-and-social-divides-159678">vulnerable residents</a>, as we saw after Hurricanes Katrina and Maria.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://engagedscholarship.csuohio.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4215&context=clevstlrev">law professor</a> who focuses on disaster recovery and preparedness and has created several legal clinics to assist survivors. Here’s what anyone facing losses after a federally declared disaster needs to know.</p>
<h2>Declaring a disaster</h2>
<p>The road to recovery starts with state and federal governments <a href="https://www.fema.gov/disaster/how-declared/preliminary-damage-assessments">identifying damages</a> – both property damage and economic damage. These assessments will shape the scope of federal assistance and how resources are allocated for each community and survivor. The level of damage will determine whether the president approves a major <a href="https://www.fema.gov/disaster/how-declared">disaster declaration or simply an emergency declaration</a>.</p>
<p>FEMA created a <a href="https://fema.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=41177835475243c488bbc55fd1df7c11">survey tool</a>, released in May 2023, to make these assessments more consistent. It is now used by officials to collect information about damage to residences, whether owners or renters live there, and the amount of insurance coverage, among other details. That information is then used to determine the extent of the disaster, its impact on infrastructure and the type of aid needed in the request for a federal disaster declaration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man wearing a T-shirt with the state seal of Hawaii speaks with reporters, standing next to a woman with 'FEMA' on her cap and shirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545566/original/file-20230830-29-zvfhx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545566/original/file-20230830-29-zvfhx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545566/original/file-20230830-29-zvfhx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545566/original/file-20230830-29-zvfhx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545566/original/file-20230830-29-zvfhx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545566/original/file-20230830-29-zvfhx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545566/original/file-20230830-29-zvfhx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hawaii Gov. Josh Green (center) and FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell (right) speak to reporters in Lahaina on Aug. 12, 2023, while surveying the wildfire damage there.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HawaiiFires/9468b72bea5f4a03ab897cd9cbaa2830/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once the federal government issues an emergency or major disaster declaration, individuals can apply for disaster recovery funding. </p>
<h2>Documenting the damage</h2>
<p>Step 2 is determining individual damages.</p>
<p>Amid the grief and the rush to find temporary housing and rebuild lives, it can be hard to focus on meticulously documenting what was lost and dealing with insurance. But federal aid has relatively short deadlines – people have 30 days from the formal disaster declaration to apply for <a href="https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/disaster.asp">disaster unemployment assistance</a> and 60 days for <a href="https://www.fema.gov/assistance/individual/program">individual and household assistance</a>, such as aid for housing, though that deadline is often extended.</p>
<p>As soon as possible, disaster survivors should take photos of the damage and record every affected area of their property. That includes capturing details of damage to structures, personal belongings, vehicles and any medical equipment. This documentation will help provide the evidence for insurance claims, requests for government assistance and potential tax savings.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing shorts, a T-shirt and face mask uses a pitch fork to dig through the ash of a home in Lahaina, Hawaii." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545568/original/file-20230830-21-doomuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545568/original/file-20230830-21-doomuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545568/original/file-20230830-21-doomuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545568/original/file-20230830-21-doomuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545568/original/file-20230830-21-doomuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545568/original/file-20230830-21-doomuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545568/original/file-20230830-21-doomuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even when everything is gone, as many homeowners discovered in Maui after the fires, there are ways to document the losses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HawaiiFires/49f2adaaf293475d931f4b0f2e8bb463/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/reconstructing-records-after-a-natural-disaster-or-casualty-loss">Internal Revenue Service</a> has a helpful guide for reconstructing records after catastrophic disasters that destroy everything. Government agencies can recover lost driving records, mortgage records, wills and vehicle sales records. Most of the costs for these searches can be waived after a disaster.</p>
<p>There are other sources, too. Title companies, property tax assessors and real estate brokers will have many documents related to a home’s value and possibly photos. Insurance policies typically list major assets. Credit card companies may have statements showing major purchases. Mobile phones, friends and social media accounts may have more photos of the property.</p>
<p>Keeping records such as repair invoices, receipts, leases, canceled checks and money orders can also help provide an overview of the losses. FEMA recently <a href="https://www.fema.gov/assistance/individual/after-applying/verifying-home-ownership-occupancy">amended its policy</a> to also allow affidavits to prove ownership of homes passed down through generations, known as <a href="https://www.deeds.com/articles/not-entitled-owners-of-heirship-properties-locked-out-of-disaster-relief/">heirship property</a>.</p>
<h2>Finding disaster aid</h2>
<p>People generally have four options for aid: insurance coverage, FEMA benefits, community or nonprofit funding, and private funding, including loans. Navigating this complex landscape can be hard. </p>
<p>Start with your insurance – homeowners insurance, renters insurance and insurance for vehicles, as well as medical, dental and health. Disaster survivors must apply for their relevant insurance payouts before FEMA will pay benefits. President Joe Biden made an exception to this rule to offer a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20230817/biden-harris-administration-provides-38-million-assistance-hawaii-residents">one-time $700 payment</a> for Maui residents to assist with critical needs, including shelter and transportation. </p>
<p>In cases where insurance coverage is denied or the person doesn’t have insurance, FEMA can become a lifeline.</p>
<p>FEMA’s <a href="https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/understanding-fema-individual-assistance-and-public-assistance">Individual Assistance</a> program offers benefits that include coverage for temporary lodging, home repair, transportation and medical needs. The agency provides <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/10/25/2022-23162/notice-of-maximum-amount-of-assistance-under-the-individuals-and-households-program">up to $41,000</a> for housing assistance after emergencies or disaster declarations. FEMA’s disaster relief fund is <a href="https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_disaster-relief-fund-report_082023.pdf">close to depleted</a>, however, after several <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2022-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historical">multibillion-dollar</a> disasters. Without <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Final-Supplemental-Funding-Request-Letter-and-Technical-Materials.pdf">additional funding</a> from Congress soon, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said some <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fema-administrator-deanne-criswell-face-the-nation-transcript-08-20-2023/">recovery funding may be delayed</a> to the next fiscal year, which starts in October.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man looks out a door that is blocked at the bottom. A sump pump is running next to it. The water is nearly up to the windows." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545637/original/file-20230830-29-jiubc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545637/original/file-20230830-29-jiubc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545637/original/file-20230830-29-jiubc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545637/original/file-20230830-29-jiubc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545637/original/file-20230830-29-jiubc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545637/original/file-20230830-29-jiubc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545637/original/file-20230830-29-jiubc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A store owner uses a sump pump to try to keep Hurricane Idalia’s rain and storm surge from flooding the building in Tarpon Springs, Fla., on Aug. 30, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/store-owner-uses-a-sump-pump-to-try-to-keep-water-out-of-news-photo/1648905661?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To cover the costs that go beyond FEMA’s limits, survivors may need to secure private loans or disaster loans, such as <a href="https://disasterloanassistance.sba.gov/ela/s/">Small Business Administration disaster loans</a>, to bridge the gap. Homeowners can apply for SBA loans to <a href="https://disasterloanassistance.sba.gov/ela/s/article/Home-and-Personal-Property-Loans">replace or repair their primary residence</a> or personal property, including cars, furniture and other items. Additionally, SBA loans can also cover business losses.</p>
<p>For those unwilling or unable to resort to loans, state and local governments often create housing recovery centers using <a href="https://www.hudexchange.info/programs/cdbg-dr/">Community Development Block Grants</a>. These grants can help survivors reestablish housing, but the funding also takes much longer to arrive. A CBDG grant in Baton Rouge provided <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/louisiana_flood_2016/heres-how-louisiana-programs-aim-to-rebuild-thousands-of-flooded-rentals-get-owners-over-the/article_8d7bead0-52c8-11e7-99ff-cb4057db2000.html">funding for rebuilding housing</a> and to mitigate future flood damage in housing and rental programs after the area flooded in 2016.</p>
<h2>Community partnerships are crucial</h2>
<p>Amid the complexities of disaster recovery, the importance of community planning and collaboration cannot be overstated.</p>
<p>A coordinated approach that involves local governments, relief organizations and community leaders serves as a catalyst for effective recovery and also makes it easier to identify vulnerable populations and ensure the equitable distribution of resources so no one is left behind. </p>
<p>Communities often set up centers where residents can find and speak to advisers from insurance companies, FEMA and other sources of support. These disaster recovery centers can be the cornerstone for long-term recovery groups that help a community both recover and build resilience.</p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/groups-helping-puerto-rico-hurricane-fiona/story?id=90151121">Five years after Hurricane Maria</a>, community groups were still on the ground in Puerto Rico providing aid and resources to the local community. <a href="https://matadornetwork.com/pulse/hurricane-katrina-orgs-working-equitable-new-orleans/">Ten years after Hurricane Katrina</a>, local housing groups were still providing support to New Orleans residents, especially those employed in the hospitality industry.</p>
<p>In the midst of this formidable journey to recovery, the indomitable spirit of communities banding together, combined with the concerted efforts of government agencies and organizations, can be uplifting. Each step forward represents a collective stride toward healing, renewal and a future marked by greater unity.</p>
<p><em>This articled was updated Sept. 1, 2023, with early damage estimates.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Latisha Nixon-Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
An expert in disaster law explains the steps for securing aid, what to do if everything is lost and the deadlines to watch.
Latisha Nixon-Jones, Associate Professor of Law, Jacksonville University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212410
2023-08-28T21:11:10Z
2023-08-28T21:11:10Z
Hurricane Idalia intensifies over extremely warm Gulf waters, on track for Florida landfall as a dangerous major hurricane
<p><em>Forecasters expected Hurricane Idalia to intensify into a <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov">major hurricane</a> as it headed over exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, on track for landfall in Florida on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023. <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?radii#contents">Hurricane warnings</a> were posted along a wide stretch of Florida’s Gulf coast, from near Sarasota to the Panhandle, including Tampa Bay.</em></p>
<p><em>Hurricane scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rkIN19EAAAAJ&hl=en">Haiyan Jiang</a> of Florida International University explains how two conflicting forces – <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">record-high ocean heat</a> and wind shear, the latter influenced by El Niño – were determining Idalia’s future, and how they have made the 2023 hurricane season overall <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-forecasters-increase-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction-to-above-normal">difficult to forecast</a>.</em></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1696457469852274994"}"></div></p>
<h2>What role is ocean temperature playing in Idalia’s forecast?</h2>
<p>Forecasters are watching several factors, but the biggest is the very high <a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif">sea surface temperature</a> in the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is typically warm in late August, and we <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/">often see hurricanes</a> this time of year. But this summer, the sea surface temperature has been extremely high, with record temperatures <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">far above average</a>.</p>
<p>Near Cuba, sea surface temperatures were close to <a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif">86 degrees Fahrenheit</a> (30 degrees Celsius) as Idalia passed by the island on Monday. As the storm moves north, it will pass over sea surface temperatures that are even warmer. By Wednesday morning, the storm is forecast to be over waters that are <a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif">around 88 F (31 C)</a> at the surface. That is very, very high.</p>
<p>The heat isn’t just at the surface – the ocean heat extends deep into the upper ocean layer, or the thermocline, which is roughly 150 feet (50 meters) to 500 feet (150 meters) deep.</p>
<p>That <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content">accumulated heat</a> provides fuel for the storm.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows dark red areas with the deepest ocean heat in the Caribbean and stretching up into the Gulf of Mexico." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545099/original/file-20230828-123419-9k4txk.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oceanic Heat Content measures how deep warm water goes, showing the depth from the sea surface to the 26 C (78.8 F) isotherm. Idalia’s forecast path, from west of Cuba on Aug. 28, 2023, toward the Florida Panhandle, follows some of the deepest heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://coastwatch.noaa.gov/cwn/products/oceanic-heat-content-mixed-layer-depth-and-depths-20degc-and-26degc-isotherms.html">NOAA Coast Watch</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the ocean temperature increases, the amount of water vapor available to the storm also increases. Physics show that <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-us-climate-disasters-from-storms-and-floods-to-heat-waves-and-droughts-196713">warmer air can hold more water vapor</a>. With more heat and water vapor in the atmosphere, clouds heat up and the storm can rotate faster. It can also bring more intense rainfall.</p>
<h2>Can wind shear weaken the hurricane?</h2>
<p>A few things will weaken a hurricane. One is if the storm encounters cold water. Without warm water as a fuel source, the hurricane can no longer strengthen. In this case, however, the Gulf is exceptionally warm.</p>
<p>Wind shear is another important factor. Wind shear is a difference in wind speed and direction at different heights in a storm. Strong <a href="https://theconversation.com/atlantic-hurricane-season-2023-el-nino-and-extreme-atlantic-ocean-heat-are-about-to-clash-204670">wind shear can tear apart</a> a tropical storm. That’s common in the Atlantic basin during El Niño years like 2023. The question everyone has been asking this year is whether the wind shear will be strong enough to counter the extreme heat, and that doesn’t appear to be happening with Idalia.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1696245604974768580"}"></div></p>
<p>The wind shear was around 16 knots on Monday morning. The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?">moderate wind shear</a> along Idalia’s path wasn’t expected to be strong enough to tear the hurricane apart – it’s still going to rapidly intensify because of the heat.</p>
<p>That wind shear is still beneficial for people in the storm’s path. Without it, a hurricane over water this warm could grow into a catastrophic Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Right now, Idalia is <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/291153.shtml">forecast to be a Category 3</a> or close to it, which is still dangerous.</p>
<h2>Does climate change play a role in hurricane intensification?</h2>
<p>Long term, research shows Atlantic hurricane intensity has an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028836">increasing trend as the climate warms</a>.</p>
<p>If you just look at wind speed, the average intensity of storms across all six major ocean basins isn’t increasing. But rainfall intensity is a different story.</p>
<p>My research shows that over the past 20 years, tropical cyclone-induced rainfall has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25685-2">increased by about 1.3% per year</a> on average across the world’s basins and by even more in the Atlantic, about 1.6% per year. We linked the increase in rainfall intensity to increasing sea surface temperature and water vapor. Other researchers have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22304-y">found the same thing</a>.</p>
<p>Each ocean basin is very different, and there are several reasons that the Atlantic may be seeing more intensification. One is that the Gulf is very warm, making it a source of strong hurricanes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart shows average global sea surface temperatures over time. 2023 is far above all other years, and 2022 was also high." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545101/original/file-20230828-170871-41k57r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean temperatures, including in the Atlantic, have been well above previous years. The middle dotted line shows the average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">Climate Reanalyzer/Climate Change Institute/University of Maine</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More intense rainfall can mean greater flooding potential, as large parts of Florida saw during <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-ians-path-of-destruction">Hurricane Ian in 2022</a>. Even if wind speed isn’t increasing in every basin, the damage can be higher because intense rainfall could also come from a storm’s rain bands, not just from the eyewall.</p>
<p>Florida residents need to be aware of that risk as they prepare for Idalia.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Aug. 28, 2023, was updated with Idalia strengthening into a hurricane.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212410/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Haiyan Jiang receives funding from NSF, NOAA, and NASA. </span></em></p>
A hurricane scientist explains the conflict between 2023’s abnormally high ocean heat and the storm-disrupting wind shear accompanying El Niño.
Haiyan Jiang, Professor of Earth and Environment, Florida International University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/211869
2023-08-18T21:50:54Z
2023-08-18T21:50:54Z
Tropical Storm Hilary pounds Southern California with heavy rain, flash flooding
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543534/original/file-20230818-19-oy7ob6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=975%2C10%2C2274%2C1368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Hilary was a powerful Category 4 storm as it headed for Baja California on Aug. 18, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/">NOAA NESDIS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Tropical Storm Hilary <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hilary-tropical-storm-flooding-california-mexico-f89aeddeb62d55c935699ac81ca85f1d">made landfall</a> on Mexico’s Baja peninsula, and its damaging wind and heavy rainfall moved <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS86-KLOX.shtml">into Southern California</a> on <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/204813.shtml?cone#contents">Aug. 20, 2023</a>. For the <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/1692564593132933367">first time ever</a>, the National Hurricane Center had <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep09/ep092023.public.011.shtml?">issued a tropical storm watch</a> for large parts of Southern California. Forecasters warned of a “<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep09/ep092023.discus.014.shtml?">potentially historic</a> amount of rainfall,” and the governors of <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/08/19/governor-newsom-proclaims-state-of-emergency-as-hurricane-hilary-approaches-california/">California</a> and <a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/08/20/2023/governor-lombardo-declares-state-emergency-across-nevada-due-hurricane-hilary">Nevada</a> declared states of emergency.</em></p>
<p><em>Hurricane scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5uEy_XoAAAAJ&hl=en">Nick Grondin</a> explained ahead of landfall why <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/HILARY.shtml?">the storm</a>, with help from El Niño and a heat dome over much of the country, could bring <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep09/ep092023.public.011.shtml?">flash flooding</a>, wind damage and mudslides to the region.</em></p>
<h2>How rare are tropical storms in the Southwest?</h2>
<p>California had only one confirmed tropical storm landfall in the past. It was in September 1939 and called <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/150-years/sd-me-150-years-september-26-htmlstory.html">the Long Beach Tropical Storm</a>. It caused <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/chenowethlandsea.pdf">about US$2 million dollars</a> in damage in the Los Angeles area – that would be about $44 million today. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-11-1689">hurricane in 1858</a> came close but didn’t make landfall, though its winds did significant damage to San Diego.</p>
<p>What the Southwest does see fairly regularly are the remnants of tropical cyclones, storms that continue on after a tropical cyclone loses its surface circulation. These remnant storms are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3389.1">more common</a> in the region than people might think. </p>
<p>Just last year, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122022_Kay.pdf">Hurricane Kay</a> took a similar track to the one Hurricane Hilary is on and brought significant rainfall to Southern California and Arizona. Famously, <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/nora1997.html">Hurricane Nora in 1997</a> made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California and kept moving north, bringing tropical storm-force winds to California and widespread flooding that caused <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/hazstat/sum97.pdf">hundreds of millions of dollars in damage</a>, particularly to fruit trees <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/hazstat/sum97.pdf">and agriculture</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows rainfall forecast across much of Southern California and into Arizona and Nevada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The National Hurricane Center’s three-day rainfall forecast issued Aug. 19, 2023, shows rainfall totals that are well above what some areas typically receive in a year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/175024.shtml?rainqpf#contents">National Hurricane Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A study led by atmospheric scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=rHHmqXgAAAAJ&hl=en">Elizabeth Ritchie</a> in 2011 found that, on average, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3389.1">about 3.1 remnant systems</a> from tropical cyclones affected the U.S. Southwest each year from 1992 to 2005. That’s a short record, but it gives you an idea of the frequency.</p>
<p>Typically, the remnants of tropical cyclones don’t go beyond California, Nevada and Arizona, <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcrainfall.html">though it wouldn’t be unprecedented</a>. In this case, forecasters expect the effects to extend far north. The National Hurricane Center on Aug. 18 projected at least a <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/175024.shtml?ero#contents">moderate risk of flooding</a> across large parts of Southern California, southern Nevada and far-western Arizona, and a high risk of flooding for regions east of San Diego.</p>
<h2>What’s making this storm so unusual?</h2>
<p>One influence is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño climate pattern</a> this year, which is showing signs of strengthening in the Pacific. Another, which might be less intuitive, is the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/17/heat-wave-texas-excessive-heat-warning/">heat dome over much of the U.S.</a></p>
<p>During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/hurricanes.html">at least 80 degrees</a> Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to maintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/spac.html">are much cooler</a>. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to survive the cooler water.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1691594717115335132"}"></div></p>
<p>The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=16yNCisAAAAJ&hl=en">Kimberly Wood</a> published a fantastic thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the <a href="https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1691956790144155962">large-scale pattern around similar storms</a> that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure system, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure system like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1691594717115335132">winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward</a> into California.</p>
<p>Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm’s formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.</p>
<h2>What are the risks?</h2>
<p>The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to issue its <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/1692564593132933367">first-ever tropical storm watch</a> for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.</p>
<p>When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142018_Lane.pdf">Hurricane Lane in Hawaii</a> in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, effects, such as the west coast of Mexico.</p>
<p>That can mean dangerous flash flooding from the runoff. It can also have a secondary hazard – mudslides, <a href="https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/1692596995330814311">including in areas recovering from wildfires</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1692596995330814311"}"></div></p>
<p>In dry areas, heavy downpours can also trigger flash flooding. Forecasts showed Death Valley likely to get <a href="https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1692550601677390298">more rain from the storm</a> than <a href="https://www.nps.gov/deva/planyourvisit/weather.htm">its average</a> for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of <a href="https://www.nps.gov/deva/planyourvisit/conditions.htm">flash flooding through Aug. 22</a> and closed its visitor centers and campgrounds. </p>
<p>Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain setting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local <a href="http://www.hurricanes.gov">National Weather Service</a> offices in the United States and <a href="https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/">Servicio Meteorológico Nacional</a> in Mexico.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Aug. 18, 2023, was updated with Tropical Storm Hilary making landfall.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Grondin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Forecasters warned of ‘potentially historic rainfall’ and ‘dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.’ A hurricane scientist explains what El Niño, a heat dome and mountains have to do with the risk.
Nicholas Grondin, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Tampa
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/211393
2023-08-11T12:39:08Z
2023-08-11T12:39:08Z
Wildfires are a severe blow to Maui’s tourism-based economy, but other iconic destinations have come back from similar disasters
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542235/original/file-20230810-19-tqcvzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=61%2C24%2C8181%2C5450&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Destroyed homes and buildings in Lahaina on Aug. 10, 2023, in the aftermath of wildfires on western Maui, Hawaii.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-aerial-image-taken-on-august-10-2023-shows-destroyed-news-photo/1590312358">Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Major wildfires on the Hawaiian island of Maui have <a href="https://www.facebook.com/countyofmaui/posts/pfbid0PKT2oPbjEdM7bAQM2JtEGeCSd7rumG3yQ7YbFcQ95pnnzyYHBDFLNrPBFPGTDz7Jl">killed dozens of people</a> and caused heavy damage, particularly in the historic town of Lahaina, as of Aug. 10, 2023. The state has <a href="https://beatofhawaii.com/hawaii-asks-all-visitors-to-leave-maui/">asked all visitors to leave Maui</a> and those planning to travel there to reschedule their trips – a harsh blow to a destination whose economy relies heavily on tourism. University of South Carolina research professor <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-sW8SYIAAAAJ&hl=en">Rich Harrill</a>, an expert on hospitality and tourism, explains how such events affect places like Maui in the short and long terms.</em></p>
<h2>How tourism-dependent is Hawaii compared to other popular destinations?</h2>
<p>Compared to other destinations, Hawaii is very reliant on tourism – it comprises <a href="https://seagrant.soest.hawaii.edu/rebooting-hawaiis-visitor-industry/">about 25% of the state’s economy</a>. According to the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, <a href="https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/23-24/#">visitor spending</a> was projected to be US$20.8 billion in 2023 and $23.4 billion in 2026.</p>
<p>Tourism plays an even greater role on Maui. Maui County has the state’s <a href="https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/5414/maui-county-tourism-industry-stragetic-plan-volume-1.pdf">highest reliance on tourism</a>, with 51% of its jobs falling into sectors directly associated with tourism. That means household incomes and purchasing power there are strongly influenced by the tourism economy.</p>
<h2>What are the main steps that tourist-related businesses on Maui will have to take in the coming days and weeks?</h2>
<p>The first step any business owner should take is to ensure that their business opens in line with all state protocols and laws related to the safety, health and welfare of residents and visitors. </p>
<p>In the short term, the top priorities are helping visitors get flights home, handling cancellations and assessing damage to facilities and property. Then, in the weeks that follow, businesses will clean up and make repairs. They will have various aid sources, including the county, state and federal governments, nonprofits and private insurers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People standing, sitting and lying down around an airport departure gate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542236/original/file-20230810-25-virl9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Passengers crowd a terminal at Kahului Airport, waiting for delayed and canceled flights off Maui after wildfires, on Aug. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/passengers-try-to-rest-and-sleep-after-canceled-and-delayed-news-photo/1589107233">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As we saw during the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/26/hawaii-coronavirus-tourism-economy-impact">COVID-19 shutdowns</a>, downtime can give business owners an opportunity to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/07/travel/hawaii-covid-tourism.html">reflect on their product or service and how they market it</a>. Some business owners decided to close up shop and retire. Others redoubled their efforts to accommodate the <a href="https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/23-18/">post-pandemic rebound</a> in visitor demand.</p>
<h2>Maui is asking visitors to leave and to delay planned trips – will a lot of tourism-related jobs be lost?</h2>
<p>Individual businesses and corporations may offer some types of worker protection. But historically, many jobs in the tourist sector get cut in the short term when a crisis shuts down business. Then, as conditions improve, companies gradually hire employees back. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/75atiYAMcaE?wmode=transparent&start=3" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Hawaii has weathered other major disasters, including Hurricane Iniki, which devastated the island of Kauai in September 1992.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How do local governments decide when to start inviting visitors back?</h2>
<p>This is a process that’s led by groups known in the travel industry as <a href="https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Government/destination-marketing-organizations-From-marketing-to-managing">destination marketing and management organizations</a>. They often have names like tourist boards, or convention and visitors bureaus, and they help promote and market local attractions.</p>
<p>Working with their local destination marketing organization, local governments should make decisions carefully about inviting visitors back. First and foremost, they need to consider the health, safety and welfare of everyone who’s involved – residents, visitors and hospitality providers. All of those groups should be involved in the decision, and it needs to be communicated through carefully crafted marketing messages to reach globally diverse audiences. </p>
<p>Once the needs of the community and its residents have been met, a new marketing campaign takes place that typically presents a revitalized destination that is open and ready for visitors. This message may emphasize new and improved aspects of the destination, or simply show that its beloved and iconic qualities are still there to enjoy. That includes making sure that transportation is available to reach the destination and that there’s quality lodging and dining readily available for all price points. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1666262131052802051"}"></div></p>
<h2>In your experience, does interest in top destinations like Hawaii usually bounce back to pre-disaster levels?</h2>
<p>Globally, tourism revenues are projected to grow by <a href="https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/travel-tourism/worldwide">almost 5% yearly through 2027</a>. Unlike other forms of economic development, travel and tourism have shown resilience through many different types of crises. </p>
<p>Even destinations that have been massively damaged can regain their markets, although rebuilding may be a multi-year process. New Orleans was a major destination <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/28/new-orleans-tourism-booms-10-years-after-hurricane-katrina.html">within a decade</a> after it was flooded by Hurricane Katrina. The same was true for the <a href="https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/19516425/hurricane-iniki-kauais-road-to-recovery/">Hawaiian island of Kauai</a> after Hurricane Iniki ravaged it in 1992.</p>
<p>Tourism is a experience that is unique to the human condition. It sustains our hopes and dreams, and offers relaxation and tranquility, or excitement and adventure, through good times and bad.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rich Harrill has collaborated with the U.S. Travel Association and the U.S. Department of Commerce's Office of Travel and Tourism Industries. He has received grants from more than 30 different government, business and industry clients, and has produced strategic tourism plans and development studies for multiple counties in South Carolina.</span></em></p>
Wildfires on Maui are a crippling blow to the island’s tourism industry, which generates half of its jobs. But New Orleans and Kauai show that comebacks are possible.
Rich Harrill, Research Professor of Hospitality and Tourism and Director, International Tourism Research Institute, University of South Carolina
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/211384
2023-08-10T23:31:02Z
2023-08-10T23:31:02Z
Maui wildfires: Extra logistical challenges hinder government’s initial response when disasters strike islands
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542173/original/file-20230810-21-irkvno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=126%2C338%2C3899%2C2432&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A wildfire burns in Kihei, Hawaii, on Aug. 9, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaii-Fires/d209c3dc32c6419999f9885ad573a48b/photo?Query=hawaii&mediaType=photo,video,graphic,audio&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=42701&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Ty O'Neil</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Wildfires destroyed the Hawaiian tourist town of Lahaina</a> on Aug. 8 and 9, 2023, leaving many of its <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/lahainacdphawaii">roughly 13,000 residents</a> <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-11/maui-hawaii-fires-devastate-lahaina-biden-declares-disaster/102716562">homeless</a>. Fires also <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/10/us/maui-wildfires-hurricane-dora-thursday/index.html">burned in other areas on Maui</a>, Hawaii’s second-largest island, and its <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/maui-wildfires-08-10-23/index.html">Big Island</a>. President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/08/10/president-joseph-r-biden-jr-approves-hawaii-disaster-declaration-3/">issued a disaster declaration on Aug. 10</a>, which authorizes federal aid for communities in harm’s way.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Ivis García, an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=x45RIOYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">urban planner who has researched disaster recovery efforts</a> in Puerto Rico, to explain how the U.S. government responds to disasters like these and how Maui’s geography could interfere with aid delivery.</em></p>
<h2>Is it harder for aid to reach an island than the US mainland?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20230502/fact-sheet-fema-101-how-federal-disaster-aid-works">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a>, which delivers emergency assistance after disasters, has to deal with big transportation challenges in cases like this. Initially, FEMA will be focused on bringing food, generators, cots, meals and anything else people need, and that aid will be arriving on planes and boats rather than by road.</p>
<p>Later, FEMA might bring temporary homes – often called trailers – but only if there’s enough suitable land to accommodate them. There were not a lot of FEMA-supplied trailers in Puerto Rico after <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-puerto-ricos-death-toll-from-hurricane-maria-is-so-much-higher-than-officials-thought-97488">Hurricane Maria struck in 2017</a>. On islands, like Maui, there’s usually not a lot of room to set up trailer parks, whether or not a disaster has just occurred.</p>
<p>Likewise, it will be harder to deploy emergency personnel. Aid workers will have more trouble getting to Maui than they would have arriving in North Carolina, for example. And there could be few places for them to stay. It’s not clear if that’s going to be a problem on Maui, where there <a href="https://mauinow.com/2019/01/29/maui-has-26-of-states-visitor-accommodation-units/">were about 26,000 hotel rooms</a> before the wildfires broke out.</p>
<p>Everything about the immediate response to a disaster in places like Hawaii and Puerto Rico is more expensive than on the mainland. That includes food, shelter and transportation. You can’t just drive there or go rent a car when you arrive. There’s typically little public transportation available, and there are few roads even if an aid worker can obtain a vehicle.</p>
<p>When aid does arrive by boat, unloading it can be hard and take a long time. The disaster may have damaged the local harbors and ports, and the <a href="https://www.fleetmon.com/ports/lahaina_uslhn_9696/?language=en">harbors in places like Lahaina</a> are usually small and not suited for cargo. Reports don’t indicate that <a href="https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ports/12266?name=KAHULUI&country=USA">Kahului, Maui’s cargo port</a>, was damaged.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.hawaiistar.com/is-hawaii-closer-to-japan-or-usa/">Hawaii is closer to California</a> than Japan but thousands of miles away from both places. Because of U.S. laws, all <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46748">government-paid assistance needs to originate in the United States</a>. The same is largely true as well for private aid because of the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/jones-act-explained-waiving-means-puerto-rico">Jones Act, a 1920 law</a> that requires goods shipped between U.S. ports to be transported by vessels that belong to Americans and are primarily U.S.-operated.</p>
<p>The government has the power to issue a waiver of the Jones Act during disasters. Former President <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/27/all-about-the-jones-act-an-obscure-shipping-law-thats-stalling-puerto-ricos-recovery/">Donald Trump issued</a>, <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/research/policy-briefs/jones-act-revisited">a 10-day waiver</a> after Hurricane Maria.</p>
<p>Some members of Congress have sought for years to <a href="https://www.ajot.com/insights/full/ai-cato-congressional-allies-propose-dismantling-the-jones-act">repeal the Jones Act</a>, at least for shipping to remote places like Hawaii, Alaska, Guam and Puerto Rico, without success.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Houses in a sunny place with their roofs blown off and replaced temporarily by tarps." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542219/original/file-20230810-27-ulusk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These Puerto Rican homes, photographed on Oct. 19, 2017, were covered with FEMA tarps in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HurricaneFailedHelp/21cf951fe557439484bd2943d08566b7/photo?Query=fema%20puerto%20rico&mediaType=photo,video,graphic,audio&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=109&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Carlos Giusti</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can Maui residents expect from FEMA?</h2>
<p>Residents of a disaster area may qualify for FEMA’s <a href="https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/critical-needs-assistance-0">critical needs assistance</a> – one-time payment that in recent disasters has been for $700.</p>
<p>On top of emergency aid, food and clothing, FEMA will help residents apply for housing aid as needed. FEMA’s housing aid <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-fema-can-prioritize-equity-in-disaster-recovery-assistance/">rarely exceeds $35,000</a>; <a href="https://www.hudexchange.info/programs/cdbg-dr/">other government agencies</a> sometimes provide further funding.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/recovery-from-a-disaster-like-hurricane-ian-takes-years-and-nonprofits-play-many-pivotal-roles-before-and-after-fema-aid-runs-out-191725">FEMA usually sets up an assistance center</a> for this, often in coordination with local nonprofits. This process could take several months to get underway, and <a href="https://www.fema.gov/assistance/individual">FEMA also accepts online applications</a> from individuals. In the meantime, displaced residents may get money or vouchers to cover short-term hotel stays.</p>
<p><a href="https://championtraveler.com/price/cost-of-a-trip-to-maui-hi-us/">Lodging costs are very high</a> on Maui, even in normal circumstances. So it’s likely that many local residents will find it nearly impossible to cover their short-term housing costs with their FEMA assistance. That means large numbers of <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricanes-and-other-extreme-weather-disasters-prompt-some-people-to-move-and-trap-others-in-place-129128">displaced people are likely to relocate to another Hawaiian island or another state</a> with cheaper housing and hotels. Most likely, many of them won’t return.</p>
<p>That’s what happened in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>Researchers have estimated that of the <a href="https://centropr-archive.hunter.cuny.edu/sites/default/files/RB2017-01-POST-MARIA%20EXODUS_V3.pdf">nearly 400,000 people who left in 2017 and 2018</a> after Maria, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-020-00356-4">maybe 50,000 had returned by 2019</a>. It’s worth noting that regardless of whether one resides in Maui or elsewhere, FEMA only provides <a href="https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/rental-assistance-available-getting-it-and-keeping-it-going">housing support for up to 18 months</a>.</p>
<p>Residents at that point might be making their own houses habitable again. Often, nonprofits pitch in with this work. If residents were homeowners, rather than renters, and had insurance, they’ll eventually get <a href="https://www.iii.org/article/settling-insurance-claims-after-a-disaster">money from their policies</a> to rebuild or, depending on state laws, relocate.</p>
<p>FEMA’s housing aid primarily benefits homeowners, and there’s evidence that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/29/1004347023/why-fema-aid-is-unavailable-to-many-who-need-it-the-most">low-income people can struggle</a> to get the housing help they need from the agency. Renters sometimes qualify for FEMA grants to cover losses not insured by an insurance policy, such as furniture and other personal belongings.</p>
<p>Renters, business owners, nonprofits and homeowners located in disaster areas can also apply for <a href="https://www.thebalancemoney.com/average-fema-payments-and-claims-info-4160005">Small Business Administration disaster loans</a>.</p>
<h2>What about tourism?</h2>
<p>There were many <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/tears-of-joy-as-people-trapped-by-hurricane-maria-return-from-puerto-rico/">tourists in Puerto Rico who got stranded</a> after Maria. Their hotels were damaged, and they were evacuated, along with local residents, to shelters. That’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/hawaii-travel-plans-fires/index.html">happening in Hawaii now</a>, with the wildfires. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Large numbers of people, dressed for warm weather, mill about with luggage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542221/original/file-20230810-25-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People gather at the Kahului Airport in Hawaii while waiting for flights on Aug. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HawaiiFires/083139f34aa242c8b50c69d421a4b0ec/photo?Query=hawaii%20fire&mediaType=photo,video,graphic,audio&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=385&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once those tourists leave, the hotels damaged by wildfire will need to rebuild before the local tourism industry can recover. Many of the people who work in smaller tourism operations will be busy building their own homes before they can focus again on restoring their businesses. </p>
<p>Larger hotels that were damaged, such as the historic <a href="https://www.travelmarketreport.com/News/articles/Maui-Fire-Update-Evacuations-Hotel-Closures-and-Airline-Changes">Best Western Pioneer Inn</a>, will probably wait for their insurance policies to pay out before rebuilding. </p>
<p>In Puerto Rico, which like <a href="https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/4167/hta-tourism-econ-impact-fact-sheet-december-2019.pdf">Hawaii depends heavily on the revenue</a> it gets as a popular travel destination, it <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/puerto-rico-reflects-on-2022-as-strongest-year-in-tourism-history-this-national-plan-for-vacation-day-301734786.html">took at least two years for tourism to bounce back</a> because the island’s <a href="https://europe.mercycorps.org/en-gb/blog/facts-hurricane-maria-puerto-rico">recovery was so slow and complex</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ivis García does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
An expert on Puerto Rico’s recovery from Hurricane Maria explains why it’s hard for the US to deliver disaster aid in places like Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
Ivis García, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/201863
2023-08-09T19:53:09Z
2023-08-09T19:53:09Z
Canadians are unprepared for natural hazards. Here’s what we can do about it
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524785/original/file-20230507-95951-vgybjx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C0%2C8198%2C5533&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damaged buildings sit in the water along the shore following Hurricane Fiona in Rose Blanche-Harbour Le Cou, N.L. in September, 2022. Fiona left a trail of destruction across much of Atlantic Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadians-are-unprepared-for-natural-hazards-heres-what-we-can-do-about-it" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Over the last year, Canada has made important progress toward making it easier for people to determine if they’re at risk from natural hazard disasters. But many people across the country still lack awareness about the risks they face and the steps they can take to prepare for them. </p>
<p>The summer of 2023 has been marked by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federl-wildfire-record-worst-summer-1.6898955">record-breaking wildfires</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/23/americas/nova-scotia-canada-rain-floods/index.html">floods</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/how-hot-is-it-around-the-world-millions-sweat-in-record-breaking-heat-waves-as/article_1424fc18-77e2-51cb-9b0d-42a20db7cf8c.html">heat waves</a> across Canada.</p>
<p>As natural hazards and extreme weather events <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9091585/canada-climate-disasters-damage-report/">increase in frequency and severity</a> across the country, there’s no shortage of educational initiatives aimed at helping Canadian households and communities learn about and prepare for these risks. </p>
<p>The 2023 federal government budget proposed $15.3 million to create a <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap4-en.html#Raising%20Awareness%20of%20Flood%20Risks">publicly accessible online portal</a> where Canadians can access information about their exposure to floods. <a href="http://floodsmartcanada.ca/floodplain-maps/">Flood maps</a> are already available for most provinces and territories. </p>
<p>The investment came on the heels of the release of Natural Resource Canada’s <a href="https://riskprofiler.ca/">RiskProfiler</a>, an online platform that provides information about Canadians’ potential risk from earthquakes. In anticipation of the 2023 wildfire season, FireSmart Canada published an updated <a href="https://firesmartcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Begins-at-Home-Guide-WEB.pdf">fire safety home guide</a>.</p>
<p>But it remains unclear whether — and which types of — initiatives are effective at raising awareness. Recent research shows that Canadians’ awareness and preparedness for natural hazard disasters is <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2021/sp-ps/PS4-280-2021-1-eng.pdf">consistently low</a> and <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2015001/article/14234-eng.htm">unevenly distributed</a> among different segments of the population. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="an aerial view of a neighborhood of burned down buildings along a road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Much of the town of Lytton, B.C. was destroyed by wildfires in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Inclusive resilience</h2>
<p>There is insufficient research exploring how factors like the language, gender or socioeconomic status of at-risk Canadians influence disaster awareness and preparedness.</p>
<p>This is a significant blind spot in Canada’s disaster management. Studies from around the world show an individual’s decision to protect their home and family from hazards is mediated by an array of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.03.011">social</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9500-2">cultural</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.013">economic</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01783.x">cognitive</a> factors. </p>
<p>People’s cognitive biases might explain why, for example, people who live on a flood plain might <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/partners-for-action/past-projects/canadian-voices-flood-risk-2020">not be aware of their flood risk</a>. Moreover, having resources, time and money can also dictate whether those who are in flood-prone areas take steps to reduce their risk.</p>
<p>Understanding what drives and deters people to protect themselves will help governments and emergency management practitioners when engaging with the public, and ultimately give people the tools they need to become more resilient to disasters. Insights about the barriers and enablers to preparedness are also critical for advancing equitable and effective risk communication aimed at reaching specific demographic groups.</p>
<p>We are researchers with the <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/inclusive-resilience/">Inclusive Resilience project</a> led by the Canadian Red Cross. Our research provides insights into disaster awareness and preparedness among at-risk Canadians, as well as their preferences for risk communications. </p>
<p>The project’s goals are to identify the most effective means to increase awareness of hazards and to promote practical tools and actions that foster inclusive resilience among five at-risk groups: women, older adults, people with low income, Indigenous Peoples and newcomers to Canada.</p>
<p>The Canadian Red Cross worked with <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/partners-for-action/">Partners for Action (P4A)</a>, a University of Waterloo research initiative focused on flood risk and resilience, to support the goals of the project. Inclusive resilience is an approach that ensures all people have an opportunity to make meaningful contributions to decision-making, planning and response efforts to natural hazard risks.</p>
<h2>Need for varied disaster preparedness</h2>
<p><a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/inclusive-resilience/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/crc-p4a-finalreport-en.pdf">Through 500 telephone surveys and a total of 15 online interviews and focus groups</a>, our team at P4A engaged with people belonging to one or more of the five at-risk groups living in flood, wildfire and/or earthquake hazard zones. </p>
<p>Participants reflected on their knowledge of and opinions about natural hazards; shared feedback on educational materials on natural hazards preparedness; and explained the challenges they face in protecting their families and communities from these hazards.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men sifting through the rubble of a damaged building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People clear out a damaged home in Burnt Island, N.L. following Hurricane Fiona in September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Across all demographic groups, awareness of and preparedness for natural hazards were generally low. </p>
<p>However, we did find some patterns. People who shared demographic characteristics or lived in similar areas shared common viewpoints and behaviours about natural hazards. They also had common preferences for how they learned about the risks they face from natural hazards.</p>
<p>For example, women listed social media as their preferred risk communication channel. Residents of Richmond, B.C. were more aware of and prepared for their local hazard risks (flood and earthquake) than any other communities in our sample.</p>
<p>Participants with low incomes were less prepared for emergencies than others and consistently cited the cost of preparing as their greatest hurdle. Additionally, newcomers also expressed a lack of awareness, how to prepare and who to turn to for information as their top barriers to preparedness.</p>
<h2>Clear and tailored resources</h2>
<p>The ability for demographics and place to unify people’s attitudes about natural hazards indicates that communications, programs and resources need to be tailored to local contexts.</p>
<p>Participants in our study expressed a desire for varied disaster preparedness advice, such as strategies for tenants and tailored resources for apartments and highrises, as opposed to single-family homes. </p>
<p>They also saw value in preparing for natural hazards with their communities, such as at local cultural events, in the workplace and schools, in addition to their individual households. Bringing together people who already know each other further <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102060">strengthens those connections and boosts motivation</a> to continue building momentum for preparedness as a community.</p>
<p>The study was limited by the relatively small number of participants. That reduces our ability to make generalizations based on our findings. Nevertheless, the research offers guidance on how disaster prevention efforts can be shaped to reduce risk and enhance the resilience of communities.</p>
<p>In this new era of heightened natural hazard risk, practitioners need to engage the populations they wish to reach, and collaborate with communities to ensure that interventions are effective in reducing disaster risk and enhancing resilience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva Angelyna (Evalyna) Bogdan receives research funding from Canada's Tri-agency funding programs, York University and the Government of Alberta. Her work for P4A on the Inclusive Resilience project received funding from Public Safety Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Krueger's work for P4A on the Inclusive Resilience project received funding from Public Safety Canada.</span></em></p>
As extreme weather events increase in frequency and severity, many Canadians are still unaware of how to prepare for a natural disaster.
Eva Angelyna (Evalyna) Bogdan, Assistant Professor, Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, Canada
Rachel Krueger, Research Assistant, Partners for Action, University of Waterloo
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/210788
2023-08-08T03:20:28Z
2023-08-08T03:20:28Z
In the future, we could snuff out cyclones. But weather control comes with new risks
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541403/original/file-20230807-20-nxav4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C19%2C2533%2C1682&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Right now, people in coastal China <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-66400905">are fleeing</a> successive typhoons. Parts of the Philippines are awash. </p>
<p>Typhoons are intense circular storms, which Australians know as tropical cyclones and Americans call hurricanes. Damage from cyclones <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8df884dbd4e849c89d4b1128fa5dc1d6">has increased sevenfold</a> since the 1980s, even as death tolls <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/economic-costs-of-weather-related-disasters-soars-early-warnings-save-lives">fell dramatically</a>. In the 2010s, tropical cyclones did A$872 billion worth of damage globally.</p>
<p>Why? Our world has more heat in the oceans and atmosphere, which can <a href="https://news.sciencebrief.org/cyclones-mar2021">supercharge cyclones</a>. A cyclone is a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/44287">heat engine</a>, transferring heat from warm ocean water up into colder layers of the atmosphere. More heat in the system means more intense heat engines. </p>
<p>No wonder there’s been renewed interest in Cold War era experiments in weather control. While early efforts had little success, our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100535">new research</a> evaluates other methods of weakening these storms by pumping up cold water from the depths or spreading particles in the lower atmosphere to reduce incoming heat and encourage early rainfall. But these techniques could have unexpected – or even dangerous – side effects. </p>
<h2>Why are researchers even looking into this?</h2>
<p>Tropical cyclones are lethal. In 1970, an <a href="http://www.hurricanescience.org/history/storms/1970s/greatbhola/">enormous cyclone</a> struck Bangladesh (then East Pakistan). Meteorologists knew it was coming, but they had no way to communicate to people in its path. The storm killed up to 500,000 people. </p>
<p>Since then, we’ve invested in far better <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/climate/weather-warnings-climate-change.html">early warning systems</a>. Deaths have <a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-05-early-disaster-deaths-plunging.html">fallen substantially</a> now that people have time to evacuate. </p>
<p>But in developing countries in particular, deaths still happen. And then there’s the damage to farms, houses, roads and livestock. You may well survive the storm only to be forced into poverty. </p>
<p>Scientists are exploring ways of <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-fuelled-disasters-warning-people-is-good-but-stopping-the-disaster-is-best-here-are-4-possible-ways-to-do-it-194916">preventing natural disasters</a>, from bushfires to floods to hailstorms. So why not cyclones? </p>
<h2>Can we really turn a cyclone into a normal storm?</h2>
<p>It is certainly possible. But it’s not easy. </p>
<p>In the 1960s, the United States explored the use of cloud seeding to stop hurricanes from forming. During <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/stormfury_era.html">Project STORMFURY</a>, planes flew high above cyclones out at sea and sprayed them with silver iodide, a chemical which could encourage water droplets to clump together and fall as rain. This, the theory ran, would disrupt the hurricane from forming. While some seedings seemed to correlate with weaker hurricanes, the link was never adequately found and the project was eventually abandoned. </p>
<p>Instead, researchers are exploring two new options.</p>
<p>Cyclones need hot sea surfaces to form. If we could cool the surface – such as by piping chilled water from depths <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/temp-vary.html#:%7E:text=This%20results%20in%20less%20warming,C%20(39%C2%B0F).">below 200 metres</a> – we could prevent the cyclone from ever forming. </p>
<p>The problem is it’s expensive. Norwegian cyclone-busting startup OceanTherm estimates it <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90549749/this-norwegian-startup-thinks-it-can-stop-hurricanes-with-bubbling-underwater-pipes">would cost</a> about A$750 million to develop the technology, and another $105 million every year to keep it going. </p>
<p>And worse, cooling one area of the sea does nothing to stop cyclones from forming elsewhere. <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-09-artificial-ocean-cooling-weaken-hurricanes.html">Models suggest</a> ocean cooling will, at best, have only a limited dampening effect on cyclones. </p>
<p>There’s a more likely option – aerosol injection. Scientists already know that dust blown from the Sahara into the Atlantic <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059918">reduces cyclone formation</a>. We could use planes or drones to inject hygroscopic (water-attracting) particles into the lower atmosphere, where they would reflect and scatter sunlight and trigger rainfall and energy release. </p>
<p>This method has a stronger scientific pedigree, given it already occurs naturally. But we don’t know what side-effects it would have and we still aren’t sure what happens to energy redistributed by the intervention.</p>
<p>Other research <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/939099">has found</a> aerosols could reduce cyclone intensity while boosting rainfall on the rotating outer edges of cyclones. More intense rain could still cause substantial damage.</p>
<p>As you’d expect, it’s easier and more effective to intervene early in a cyclone’s life, before too much energy builds up. Making the call to try to stop a cyclone means taking decisions early. That’s a challenge, because <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/09/29/ian-hurricane-rapid-intensification-climate">cyclones can become stronger</a> faster in a hotter world. </p>
<h2>Difficult politics, difficult policy</h2>
<p>Cyclone control missions might conjure up the image of <a href="https://www.salon.com/2023/07/04/armageddon-is-25-years-old-scientists-agree-this-problematic-blockbuster-aged-like-warm-milk/">Hollywood action heroes</a> off to save the world. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, it’s more complicated than that. </p>
<p>Let’s say the Philippine government spots a extremely dangerous cyclone forming and decides to disrupt it. But the heat doesn’t magically go away. It just moves. Suddenly, another storm reappears, heading straight for China, a country you have a testy relationship with, and who may blame you for weather manipulation. </p>
<p>Far-fetched? Not at all. When Cuban dictator Fidel Castro heard of Project STORMFURY, he <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/10/riders-on-the-storm/306177">feared it was an attempt</a> to turn the weather into a weapon. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="tropical storm dorothy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541436/original/file-20230807-4145-jerwkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Project STORMFURY researchers seeded tropical storm Dorothy over the eastern Caribbean in 1970 and believed they had succeeded. But future efforts did not succeed and the project was abandoned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tropical_storm_dorothy_recon_(1970).jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Only three years ago, China’s neighbours sounded the alarm about the Middle Kingdom’s plans to reroute an atmospheric “sky river” to dry northern regions. This, according to nations like India, could <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/03/china-vows-to-boost-weather-modification-capabilities">take water away</a> from their rivers. </p>
<p>So who would decide how or when to snuff out a cyclone? How would they decide? Should private companies be allowed to run their <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/01/09/make-sunsets-solar-geoengineering-climate/">own field tests</a> or should these large-scale interventions be government-only? Who would be responsible for any side-effects? </p>
<p>There are more thorny questions. If cyclone control is perfected, what would stop a country trying to redirect cyclones towards a rival? Could cyclone technologies be misused, following similar fears with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378023000407?via%3Dihub">large-scale geoengineering</a>? Most importantly, are these technological risks worth the potentially reduced risks of cyclones? </p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>We’ll need to find answers for questions like these. As cyclones get stronger, we will urgently need new institutions to help tackle scientific uncertainties, develop monitoring capabilities and find ways of making collaborative decisions at speed. That won’t be easy – most international agreements move slowly, and most <a href="https://www.democracywithoutborders.org/23344/most-existing-international-treaties-do-not-work-study-concludes">don’t meet</a> their intended goals. </p>
<p>Technologies like particle injection are promising, but not ready for deployment. As the technology matures, so should our institutions. It’s why we’re researching the science and policy of these interventions. We must hash out how and when to use technologies like these – before we need to respond urgently. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trying-to-cool-the-earth-by-dimming-sunlight-could-be-worse-than-global-warming-175455">Trying to cool the Earth by dimming sunlight could be worse than global warming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210788/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Miller was formerly employed as a research assistant by the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at The Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Howden is the Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at The Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roslyn Prinsley is the Head of Disaster Solutions at the ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thao Linh Tran is a Research Fellow at the ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions and Research School of Earth Sciences. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Tang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
It may soon be possible to reduce cyclone formation and intensity by spraying particles into the atmosphere above a forming storm. But the technology opens up a can of worms
Aaron Tang, PhD Scholar in Climate Governance, Australian National University
Jack W. Miller, Research assistant, Australian National University
Mark Howden, Director, ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National University
Roslyn Prinsley, Head, Disaster Solutions, Australian National University
Thao Linh Tran, Research Fellow, Australian National University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/208761
2023-07-10T20:11:22Z
2023-07-10T20:11:22Z
Does the direction water rotates down the drain depend on which hemisphere you’re in? Debunking the Coriolis effect in your sink
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534774/original/file-20230629-15-plnypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=581%2C1032%2C4218%2C2604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The idea that the Coriolis force influences how water drains frequently appears in popular culture and urban legends.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/jet-water-flows-into-sink-concept-1399159301">frantic00 / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In countries near the Earth’s equator, tourists are often dazzled by a demonstration of a mysterious physical phenomenon. A presenter will position three buckets of water – one in the Northern Hemisphere, one in the Southern Hemisphere, and one directly on the equator – and let the water drain out.</p>
<p>Tourists are shown that, as the water drains, the water in the northern bucket rotates in one direction, the water in the southern bucket rotates in the other direction, and the water at the equator doesn’t rotate at all.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pb69HENUZs8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tourists in countries near the equator, like Uganda and Ecuador, are amazed by attractions that claim to demonstrate the Coriolis effect.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The demonstrator might claim that this strange phenomenon is governed by physics, that it’s an example of the <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/coriolis-effect/">Coriolis effect</a>.</p>
<p>The intriguing nature of the Coriolis effect has led to its frequent appearances in urban legends and popular culture, from <a href="http://www.lghs.net/ourpages/users/dburns/ScienceOnSimpsons/Clips_files/Coriolis.m4v">TV shows</a> to <a href="http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/939217-call-of-duty-4-modern-warfare/43834255/480093367">video games</a>.</p>
<p>The Coriolis effect is based on the idea that the spinning of the Earth introduces a physical force, known as the Coriolis force, which affects the way objects appear to move to us Earthbound observers. The Coriolis force causes objects on the Earth’s surface to be deflected in different directions depending on whether they are above or below the equator. The effect is strongest near the poles and weakest at the equator.</p>
<p>The Coriolis effect is legitimately responsible for the behavior of some natural phenomena, like hurricanes, that meterologists and physical oceanographers like <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YdRRHIQAAAAJ">the two</a> <a href="https://0-scholar-google-com.brum.beds.ac.uk/citations?user=cQOa614AAAAJ&hl=fr">of us</a> study. But in domestic settings, the spinning of the Earth actually has very little effect on how water behaves. Math can explain how this works – or doesn’t work – in a kitchen sink.</p>
<h2>The math behind the phenomenon</h2>
<p>Geophysicists use certain mathematical equations, known as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Navier-Stokes-equation">Navier-Stokes equations</a>, to describe the behavior of fluids. Roughly, the Navier-Stokes equations relate the change of fluid velocity – how the fluid moves – to the forces acting on the fluid, subject to a few physical constraints. For example, the equations assume that the overall amount of fluid in the system doesn’t change over time.</p>
<p>But just because physicists and mathematicians can write down these equations, it doesn’t mean we can solve them. In fact, these equations are so difficult to solve that you would <a href="https://theconversation.com/millennium-prize-the-navier-stokes-existence-and-uniqueness-problem-4244">win a Millennium Prize and US$1 million</a> if you could do it.</p>
<p>Although there is no known complete solution to Navier-Stokes equations, meteorologists and physical oceanographers can still obtain useful partial solutions. One way to obtain these partial solutions is to compare various terms in the Navier-Stokes equations to determine which ones are most important. </p>
<p>These comparisons are often recorded as ratios and have no associated physical unit, thereby earning them the name “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/dimensionless-number">dimensionless numbers</a>.”</p>
<h2>What happens in your sink?</h2>
<p>In the context of the Coriolis effect, perhaps the most important dimensionless number is the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/rossby-number">Rossby number</a>, named for the early 20th-century meteorologist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Carl-Gustaf-Arvid-Rossby">Carl-Gustav Rossby</a>. The Rossby number compares the dynamics of the fluid with the Earth’s rotation rate, taking into account how big the system is and how fast it’s moving. </p>
<p>A small Rossby number indicates that the Coriolis force has a strong effect on the system, while a large Rossby number signifies that the Coriolis force has a negligible effect. For example, the Rossby number for an average hurricane is of the order of 1, indicating that the dynamics of the fluid and the Earth’s rotation rate are of similar relevance. It is <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/coriolis-effect-1/">true that hurricanes</a> tend to rotate clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere.</p>
<p>The same math that applies to large-scale phenomena like hurricanes also applies to the water in your bathroom sink. In this setting, the system is relatively small, and so the Rossby number will be much larger than 1 – more than 10,000 times larger. This observation indicates that the Coriolis force is negligible on water draining in a bathroom sink.</p>
<p>In fact, the Rossby number predicts that the water would need to move at an almost imperceptible speed for the Coriolis force to become significant. So even though the way water swirls down the drain may be consistent, that isn’t due to the Coriolis effect.</p>
<h2>So what did the tourists see?</h2>
<p>The same logic applies to the equatorial attractions. Given the size of the system, physical oceanographers can comfortably conclude that the Coriolis force is not responsible for what the tourists see in those buckets or bowls. </p>
<p>This conclusion is also supported by examining the same kind of presentation in different countries. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/z9JRL0YIu18?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Different videos of the Coriolis effect show the water spinning in different directions in the same hemisphere.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The water in the Northern Hemisphere rotates counterclockwise in one video but clockwise in another video. If the rotation were due to the Coriolis effect, the result would be the same in both videos. </p>
<p>Although physical oceanographers can’t deny what the tourists see, we know that the magic trick isn’t due to the Coriolis effect at such a small scale.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.</span></em></p>
This physical effect does explain how some massive natural phenomena like hurricanes behave. But on the scale of water in your sink – not so much.
Francisco José Machín Jiménez, Profesor Titular de Universidad. Oceanógrafo Físico, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
Borja Aguiar González, Personal Docente e Investigador, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/206920
2023-06-20T18:25:21Z
2023-06-20T18:25:21Z
Hurricanes push heat deeper into the ocean than scientists realized, boosting long-term ocean warming, new research shows
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532027/original/file-20230614-23-paym8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1182%2C376%2C2629%2C1747&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite data illustrates the heat signature of Hurricane Maria above warm surface water in 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3181/a-force-of-nature-hurricanes-in-a-changing-climate/">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When a hurricane hits land, the destruction can be visible for years or even decades. Less obvious, but also powerful, is the effect hurricanes have on the oceans. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301664120">recent study</a>, we show through real-time measurements that hurricanes don’t just churn water at the surface. They can also push heat deep into the ocean in ways that can lock it up for years and ultimately affect regions far from the storm.</p>
<p>Heat is the key component of this story. It has long been known that hurricanes <a href="https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/did-you-know/how-does-the-ocean-affect-storms/">gain their energy from warm sea surface temperatures</a>. This heat helps <a href="https://youtu.be/wPDoIrGUrEc">moist air near the ocean surface rise</a> like a hot air balloon and form clouds taller than Mount Everest. This is why hurricanes generally form in tropical regions.</p>
<p>What we discovered is that hurricanes ultimately help warm the ocean, too, by enhancing its ability to absorb and store heat. And that can have far-reaching consequences.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Schematic showing the formation of a hurricane, which gains its energy from warm ocean surface water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531237/original/file-20230611-186962-ohn2oi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531237/original/file-20230611-186962-ohn2oi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531237/original/file-20230611-186962-ohn2oi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531237/original/file-20230611-186962-ohn2oi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531237/original/file-20230611-186962-ohn2oi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531237/original/file-20230611-186962-ohn2oi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531237/original/file-20230611-186962-ohn2oi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How hurricanes draw energy from the ocean’s heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane-en.svg">Kelvin Ma via Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When hurricanes mix heat into the ocean, that heat doesn’t just resurface in the same place. We showed how underwater waves produced by the storm can push the heat <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301664120">roughly four times deeper</a> than mixing alone, sending it to a depth where the heat is trapped far from the surface. From there, deep sea currents can transport it thousands of miles. A hurricane that travels across the western Pacific Ocean and hits the Philippines could end up supplying warm water that heats up the coast of Ecuador years later.</p>
<h2>At sea, looking for typhoons</h2>
<p>For two months in the fall of 2018, we lived aboard the research vessel Thomas G. Thompson to record how the Philippine Sea responded to changing weather patterns. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c9pivSIAAAAJ&hl=en">ocean</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kAGkuGgAAAAJ&hl=en">scientists</a>, we study turbulent mixing in the ocean and hurricanes and other tropical storms that generate this turbulence.</p>
<p>Skies were clear and winds were calm during the first half of our experiment. But in the second half, three major typhoons – as hurricanes are known in this part of the world – stirred up the ocean. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A photo of an instrument being lowered into the ocean. It's a long thin line with sensors attached." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531240/original/file-20230611-22144-y4s1b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531240/original/file-20230611-22144-y4s1b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531240/original/file-20230611-22144-y4s1b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531240/original/file-20230611-22144-y4s1b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531240/original/file-20230611-22144-y4s1b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531240/original/file-20230611-22144-y4s1b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531240/original/file-20230611-22144-y4s1b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Microstructure profilers are used to measure ocean turbulence. This one is designed and built by the Ocean Mixing Group at Oregon State University.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sally Warner</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That shift allowed us to directly compare the ocean’s motions with and without the influence of the storms. In particular, we were interested in learning how turbulence below the ocean surface was helping transfer heat down into the deep ocean.</p>
<p>We measure ocean turbulence with an instrument called a microstructure profiler, which free-falls nearly 1,000 feet (300 meters) and uses a probe similar to a phonograph needle to measure turbulent motions of the water. </p>
<h2>What happens when a hurricane comes through</h2>
<p>Imagine the tropical ocean before a hurricane passes over it. At the surface is a layer of warm water, warmer than 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius), that is heated by the sun and extends roughly 160 feet (50 meters) below the surface. Below it are layers of colder water. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://youtu.be/H5-ZW8sH9ws">temperature difference</a> between the layers keeps the waters separated and virtually unable to affect each other. You can think of it like the division between the oil and vinegar in an unshaken bottle of salad dressing.</p>
<p>As a hurricane passes over the tropical ocean, its strong winds help stir the boundaries between the water layers, much like someone shaking the bottle of salad dressing. In the process, cold deep water is mixed up from below and warm surface water is mixed downward. This causes surface temperatures to cool, allowing the ocean to absorb heat more efficiently than usual in the days after a hurricane.</p>
<p>For over two decades, scientists <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2010/hurricane-thermostate-0304">have debated</a> whether the warm waters that are mixed downward by hurricanes could heat ocean currents and thereby shape global climate patterns. At the heart of this question was whether hurricanes could pump heat deep enough so that it stays in the ocean for years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Schematic with five stages showing the ocean's warm surface layer mixing during a hurricane, heat continuing to be pushed down after the hurricane passes and remaining there for months." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531238/original/file-20230611-82779-r41xfk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These illustrations show what happens to ocean heat before, during, after and many months after a hurricane passes over the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sally Warner</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By analyzing subsurface ocean measurements taken before and after three hurricanes, we found that underwater waves transport heat roughly four times deeper into the ocean than direct mixing during the hurricane. These waves, which are generated by the hurricane itself, transport the heat deep enough that it cannot be easily released back into the atmosphere.</p>
<h2>Implications of heat in the deep ocean</h2>
<p>Once this heat is picked up by large-scale ocean currents, it can be transported to distant parts of the ocean. </p>
<p>The heat injected by the typhoons we studied in the Philippine Sea may have flowed to the coasts of Ecuador or California, following current patterns that carry water from west to east across the equatorial Pacific. </p>
<p>At this point, the heat may be mixed back up to the surface by a combination of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-005-0115-1">shoaling currents</a>, <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html">upwelling</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12363">turbulent mixing</a>. Once the heat is close to the surface again, it can warm the local climate and affect ecosystems. </p>
<p>For instance, coral reefs are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heat stress. El Niño events are the typical culprit behind <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044451388-5/50020-5">coral bleaching in Ecuador</a>, but the excess heat from the hurricanes that we observed may contribute to stressed reefs and bleached coral far from where the storms appeared.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Schools of striped tropical fish swim through a coral reef." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531242/original/file-20230611-26322-dj1p3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531242/original/file-20230611-26322-dj1p3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531242/original/file-20230611-26322-dj1p3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531242/original/file-20230611-26322-dj1p3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531242/original/file-20230611-26322-dj1p3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531242/original/file-20230611-26322-dj1p3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531242/original/file-20230611-26322-dj1p3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coral reefs are essential habitat for fish and other sea life, but they are threatened by rising ocean temperatures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/marine-life/coral-reef-ecosystems">James Watt via NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is also possible that the excess heat from hurricanes stays within the ocean for decades or more without returning to the surface. This would actually have a mitigating impact on climate change. </p>
<p>As hurricanes redistribute heat from the ocean surface to greater depths, they can help to slow down warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by keeping the heat sequestered in the ocean. </p>
<p>Scientists have long thought of hurricanes as extreme events fueled by ocean heat and shaped by the Earth’s climate. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301664120">Our findings</a>, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, add a new dimension to this problem by showing that the interactions go both ways — hurricanes themselves have the ability to heat up the ocean and shape the Earth’s climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noel Gutiérrez Brizuela receives funding from the Mexican Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Warner has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research.</span></em></p>
Currents can carry that deep ocean heat hundreds of miles to surface again at distant shores.
Noel Gutiérrez Brizuela, Ph.D. Candidate in Physical Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
Sally Warner, Associate Professor of Climate Science, Brandeis University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/206590
2023-06-15T11:29:12Z
2023-06-15T11:29:12Z
When homes flood, who gets FEMA buyouts and where do they go? We mapped thousands of moves and found distance and race both play a role
<p>After <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092021_Ida.pdf">Hurricane Ida</a> hit New Orleans in 2021, Kirt Talamo, a fourth-generation Louisianan, decided it was time to go. He sold his flooded home, purchased his grandmother’s former house on New Orleans’ west bank, which hadn’t flooded, and moved in. It felt good to be back within its familiar walls, but his mind was on the future.</p>
<p>“My other house wasn’t supposed to flood, and now insurance costs are going through the roof; it’s bad,” he told us. “I wanted to keep my grandma’s place in the family, but I don’t know how much longer I can stay. I’d love to, but it’s unsustainable.”</p>
<p>When hurricanes and other disaster strike, they often trigger presidential <a href="https://www.fema.gov/disaster/declarations">disaster declarations</a>, opening the way for large sums of <a href="https://www.fema.gov/disaster/how-declared">taxpayer money to flow to affected communities</a>. Some of that money will go immediately to help people in need. Some will go to rebuild public infrastructure, like roads and levees. And some of it will go to buy and demolish flooded homes through a policy known as <a href="https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/fema-efforts-advancing-community-driven-relocation">managed retreat</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman stands in a coat and boots with her hands on her hips, staring at the flattened roof and walls of her former home. It was demolished after the owner agreed to a FEMA buyout. Bright orange X's marked it for demolition." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529895/original/file-20230602-17-a9mwd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529895/original/file-20230602-17-a9mwd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529895/original/file-20230602-17-a9mwd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529895/original/file-20230602-17-a9mwd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529895/original/file-20230602-17-a9mwd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529895/original/file-20230602-17-a9mwd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529895/original/file-20230602-17-a9mwd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The owner of this home, which was demolished after being damaged by flooding in Mosby, Mo., accepted a $45,000 buyout and moved to a nearby community.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FloodBuyouts/5cdfe461b91c49db8810c26c224d5b38/photo">AP Photo/Charlie Riedel</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Officials call it “retreat” because the aim is to pull property back from areas of growing risk, whether that risk comes from major hurricanes, rising seas, heavy inland rains or other climate hazards. It is managed in the sense that government officials use cost-benefit formulas to determine where it makes the most financial sense to spend taxpayer money to tear down at-risk homes.</p>
<p>What officials do not assess is where departing homeowners move, or if those moves actually reduce the homeowner’s future risks. That is not the government’s central concern – nor is the risk level at which different homeowners participate or how that might vary across the nation’s racially segregated housing markets. These are the other unknowns of hurricane season and, with them, America’s rising flood risk more generally.</p>
<p>We are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vu9kFXEAAAAJ&hl=en">a sociologist</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=D2HKg10AAAAJ">a geographer</a> at Rice University who study environmental hazards and recovery. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd654">In a new study</a>, we investigated these unknowns and found both distance and race play outsized roles.</p>
<h2>Tracking where people go in managed retreat</h2>
<p>To visualize where people go after taking a home buyout, we built a nationwide database of nearly 10,000 U.S. homeowners who voluntarily sold their homes and moved through the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s <a href="https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/hazard-mitigation">Hazard Mitigation Grant Program</a> between 1990 and 2017 and <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529911/original/file-20230603-64885-dr6a04.png">mapped their relocations</a>.</p>
<p>That FEMA program is the largest managed retreat, or buyout, program in the country, by far. It pays homeowners a (pre-disaster) “fair market” price to acquire and demolish their flood-prone homes. To date, officials have implemented the program in more than 500 cities and towns in every state but Hawaii. Records for participating property owners were recently released through a petition filed under the Freedom of Information Act. NPR <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/696995788/search-the-thousands-of-disaster-buyouts-fema-didnt-want-you-to-see">published that data</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="VjtZR" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VjtZR/8/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>After tracking down where homeowners moved, we attached flood risk scores to their origin and destination addresses. These <a href="https://riskfactor.com/">flood factors</a> come from the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit source of flood risk ratings that are now integrated <a href="https://www.redfin.com/guides/climate-change-housing-impact/flood-risk">into online realtor websites such as Redfin</a>. We also attached local census data.</p>
<h2>Most homeowners who retreat stay close</h2>
<p>Regardless of location, we found that most retreating homeowners <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd654">do not move far</a>. </p>
<p>Nationwide, the median driving distance between people’s old and new homes in our database is just 7.4 miles (11.9 kilometers). Nearly three-quarters, 74%, stayed within a 20-mile (32-kilometer) drive. Jobs, friends and family can all play a role.</p>
<p>Notably, these short-distance moves go missing in most publicly available databases of residential mobility, such as Census migration files. When illuminated, they reveal that most retreating homeowners are not moving long distances to safer towns, states and regions; they are churning in and between nearby neighborhoods. </p>
<p>A good example is the 84 homeowners who retreated with the help of FEMA’s buyout program from a single neighborhood in Middlesex, New Jersey, following Superstorm Sandy in 2012. The vast majority moved within a 5-mile (8-kilometer) drive, and many moved toward the shoreline, not away from it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of Middlesex, N.J., and the surrounding area shows most moves were within a 10-mile radius." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529474/original/file-20230531-25771-xts2tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where homeowners from a single census tract in Middlesex, N.J., retreated following Superstorm Sandy in 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zheye Wang</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These local moves are good news for local tax bases because ongoing demand for local housing maintains its value and may even stimulate new development. </p>
<p>They are also good news for local flood control efforts. Nationwide, 70% of participants lowered their flood risk score through retreat, while only 8% increased it. The average decrease was 63%, from 5.6 on First Street’s flood factor to 2.1 at destination.</p>
<p>These findings show that sustained community attachment and risk reduction can go together.</p>
<h2>Race plays a role</h2>
<p>Across the U.S., <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd654">our analysis</a> also shows that the best predictor of retreating homeowners’ risk tolerance before selling is not whether they live in a coastal or inland area, or whether they live in a big city or a small town. It is the racial composition of their immediate neighborhood.</p>
<p>We found that retreating homeowners in majority-white neighborhoods are willing to endure 30% higher flood risk before selling to the government and relocating than homeowners in majority-Black neighborhoods.</p>
<p>Prior research suggests several reasons why this might be so. One is the heightened social status of predominantly white neighborhoods, which can encourage <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spy016">significant public and private investment after major disasters</a>. These investments make it physically as well as financially safer to stay in properties at higher risk or to sell through the market rather than engage in government-funded retreat.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The map shows relocation routes from northwest Houston suburbs to locations primarily farther north and west, away from the city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529671/original/file-20230601-25-ztoir7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529671/original/file-20230601-25-ztoir7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529671/original/file-20230601-25-ztoir7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529671/original/file-20230601-25-ztoir7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529671/original/file-20230601-25-ztoir7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529671/original/file-20230601-25-ztoir7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529671/original/file-20230601-25-ztoir7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where homeowners from a former majority-white census tract in Houston’s Inwood neighborhood retreated in the years after Tropical Storm Allison shows people moving primarily away from downtown Houston, but not far.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zheye Wang</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another likely reason involves who is actually retreating from flood-prone communities of color. In Houston, for example, one of the strongest predictors of retreat is not the current racial and ethnic composition of one’s neighborhood but the extent to which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2329496518797851">white residents have left in recent decades</a>, sometimes referred to as “white flight.” Meanwhile, homeowners of color in historically <a href="https://doi.org/10.2458/v24i1.20977">nonwhite communities often resist retreating</a> for reasons that can include a general distrust in government, deep attachments to place and lack of affordable housing nearby.</p>
<h2>Lessons for future buyout programs</h2>
<p>Our results offer an important lesson to policymakers: Unless homeowners can stay close, find communities similar to those they’re leaving or once lived in and reduce their household flood risk, most will not relocate voluntarily. Retreat, it seems, is shaped not just by rising environmental threats, increasing insurance premiums and government cost-benefit assessments, but also by community ties that racially segment who retreats where and at what risk thresholds.</p>
<p>The week of June 19, 2023, hundreds of scholars, planners and community organizers will be discussing these and related complexities of managed retreat at a national <a href="https://adaptation.ei.columbia.edu/retreat/home">conference in New York</a>. Like Kirt Talamo, their minds will be on what happens next in a world where past housing decisions seem to be increasingly unsustainable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James R. Elliott has received funding for this line of research from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zheye (Jay) Wang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
FEMA runs the largest managed retreat program in the country, Two disaster response experts looked at the demographics of who gets those buyouts and where they go.
James R. Elliott, Professor of Sociology, Rice University
Zheye (Jay) Wang, Senior Spatial Research Analyst, Kinder Institute for Urban Research, Rice University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/205974
2023-06-09T12:28:55Z
2023-06-09T12:28:55Z
El Niño is back – that’s good news or bad news, depending on where you live
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531003/original/file-20230608-17-s154j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1183%2C300%2C2231%2C1465&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Warm water along the equator off South America signals an El Niño, like this one in 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/el-nino">NOAA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>El Niño is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/june-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-here">officially here</a>, and while it’s still weak right now, federal forecasters expect this global disrupter of worldwide weather patterns to gradually strengthen. </p>
<p>That may sound ominous, but El Niño – Spanish for “the little boy” – is not malevolent, or even automatically bad.</p>
<p>Here’s what forecasters expect, and what it means for the U.S.</p>
<h2>What is El Niño?</h2>
<p>El Niño is a climate pattern that starts with warm water building up in the tropical Pacific west of South America. This happens every three to seven years or so. It might last <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531150/original/file-20230609-686-qbp36v.png">a few months or a couple of years</a>.</p>
<p>Normally, the trade winds push warm water away from the coast there, allowing <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/ElNino">cooler water to surface</a>. But <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html">when the trade winds weaken</a>, water near the equator can heat up, and that can have all kinds of effects through what are known as teleconnections. The ocean is so vast – covering approximately one-third of the planet, or about 15 times the size of the U.S. – that those sloshings of warm water have knock-on effects around the globe.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_Tuou_QcgxI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains teleconnections and the impact of El Niño.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That warming at the equator during El Niño leads to the warming of the stratosphere, starting about 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) above the surface. Scientists are still studying how exactly this teleconnection occurs. </p>
<p>At the same time, the lower tropical stratosphere cools.</p>
<p>That combination can shift the upper-level winds known as the jet stream, which blow from west to east. Altering the jet stream can affect all kinds of weather variables, from temperatures to storms and winds that can <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023-hurricane-forecast-get-ready-for-a-busy-pacific-storm-season-quieter-atlantic-than-recent-years-thanks-to-el-nino-204526">tear hurricanes apart</a>.</p>
<p>Basically, what happens in the Pacific doesn’t stay in the Pacific.</p>
<p><iframe id="aOiS8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aOiS8/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>So, what does all that mean for you and me?</h2>
<p>With apologies to Charles Dickens, El Niño tends to create a tale of two regions: the best of times for some, and the worst of times for others.</p>
<p>On average, <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/past-eight-years-confirmed-be-eight-warmest-record">El Niño years are warmer globally</a> than La Niña years – El Niño’s opposite. Globally, a strong El Niño can boost temperatures by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.4 Celsius). But in North America, there is a lot of local variation. </p>
<p>El Niño years tend to be warmer across the northern part of the U.S. and in Canada, and the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are often drier than usual in the winter and fall. The Southwest, on the other hand, tends to be <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html">cooler and wetter than average</a>.</p>
<p>El Niño typically shifts the jet stream farther south, so it blows pretty much due west to east over the southern U.S. That shift tends to block moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the fuel for thunderstorms in the Southeast. La Niña, conversely, is associated with a more wavy and northward-shifted jet stream, which can enhance severe weather activity in the South and Southeast.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows warmer, drier air over the northern U.S. and Canada; wetter conditions across the Southwest and dry in the Southeast. The jet stream shifts southward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530984/original/file-20230608-12369-joi210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">El Niño’s typical effects in winter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/ElNino_winter_flat_Feb2016update_large_1.png">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>El Niño also affects hurricanes, but in <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023-hurricane-forecast-get-ready-for-a-busy-pacific-storm-season-quieter-atlantic-than-recent-years-thanks-to-el-nino-204526">different ways in the Atlantic and Pacific</a>.</p>
<p>Over the Atlantic, El Niño tends to <a href="https://theconversation.com/atlantic-hurricane-season-2023-el-nino-and-extreme-atlantic-ocean-heat-are-about-to-clash-204670">increase wind shear</a> – the change in wind speed with height in the atmosphere – which can tear apart hurricanes. But El Niño has the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where it can mean more storms. The ocean heat can also raise the <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-coming-and-ocean-temps-are-already-at-record-highs-that-can-spell-disaster-for-fish-and-corals-202424">risk of marine heat waves</a> that can devastate corals and ecosystems fish rely on.</p>
<p>In the middle of the U.S., El Niño is generally associated with warmer and drier conditions that can mildly increase the <a href="https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/el-nino-makes-its-grand-return-heres-what-it-tells-us-about-summer">chances of a bountiful corn crop</a>. </p>
<p>In contrast, El Niño can wreak havoc <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.509914">on crops in Southern Africa</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-possible-consequences-of-el-nino-returning-in-2023-198105">Australia</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml">increase Australia’s fire risk</a> with dangerously dry conditions. Brazil and northern South America also tend to be drier, while parts of <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/ElNino">Argentina and Chile tend to be wetter</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A stockman stands in the dry bed of a creek on his property in Australia in 2005 during a severe drought that coincided with El Nino." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531030/original/file-20230608-19-ey0ms3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531030/original/file-20230608-19-ey0ms3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531030/original/file-20230608-19-ey0ms3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531030/original/file-20230608-19-ey0ms3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531030/original/file-20230608-19-ey0ms3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531030/original/file-20230608-19-ey0ms3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531030/original/file-20230608-19-ey0ms3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia endured its worst drought in decades in 2005 with the combined effect of increasing temperatures and an El Niño.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/stockman-gordon-litchfield-from-wilpoorinna-sheep-and-news-photo/53030639">Ian Waldie/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, just because this is normally what happens doesn’t mean it happens every time. Witness California’s record rainfalls from <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/more-heavy-rain-snow-and-wind-hitting-western-us">multiple atmospheric rivers</a> at the end of the last La Niña, which normally would mean dry conditions. </p>
<p>Every weather event is somewhat different, so the influence of El Niño is a matter of probability, not certainty. How El Niño and La Niña will be <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.941055">influenced over time by climate change</a> isn’t yet clear.</p>
<h2>The forecasts don’t all agree</h2>
<p>Is 2023 going to be a record-breaking year? That’s the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">multibillion-dollar</a> question. </p>
<p>The National Weather Service declares the onset of El Niño when water temperatures are at least 0.9 F (0.5 C) above normal for a three-month period in what’s known as the <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4695">Niño3.4 region</a>. That’s a large imaginary rectangle south of Hawaii along the equator.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An animation shows satellite images of how temperatures headed up in the equatorial pacific, with a warm streak developing and intensifying west of South America." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530987/original/file-20230608-26-8kc8u1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530987/original/file-20230608-26-8kc8u1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530987/original/file-20230608-26-8kc8u1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530987/original/file-20230608-26-8kc8u1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530987/original/file-20230608-26-8kc8u1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530987/original/file-20230608-26-8kc8u1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530987/original/file-20230608-26-8kc8u1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Watching El Niño develop in the tropical Pacific, January to June 2023. The box shows the Niño3.4 region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/">NOAA Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For a strong El Niño, the Niño3.4 region needs to warm by 2.7 F (1.5 C) for three months. It’s not clear as of right now whether this El Niño will meet that threshold this year.</p>
<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first El Niño advisory of the year, released on June 8, sees an 84% chance of El Niño being greater than moderate by winter and a 56% chance that it will be strong.</p>
<p>Those forecasts can change, though, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/05/el-nio-forecast-climate-chaos/">different forecasting methods</a> offer <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1663949801015197697">different forecasts of the magnitude</a>.</p>
<p>“Dynamical” models, similar to the models used for typical weather forecasts, have projected a very strong El Niño, whereas “static” or statistical models are far less optimistic. Personally, <a href="https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/robert.j.leamon">I’m a statistical modeler</a>, and my own model doesn’t suggest a strong El Niño in 2023. Rather, my model – like other static models – predicts that 2023 will fizzle out, and after a couple of quiet, or neutral, years, we will see a strong El Niño in 2026. I did get the recent unusual <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150691/la-nina-times-three">“triple dip” La Niña</a> right, but I’m willing to be proved wrong by observations, as any good scientist should be.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a raincoat stands under a big umbrella watching his backyard fill with rainwater in California in 2023. California saw record rain from atmospheric rivers in early 2023." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531029/original/file-20230608-26-5nz4h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531029/original/file-20230608-26-5nz4h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531029/original/file-20230608-26-5nz4h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531029/original/file-20230608-26-5nz4h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531029/original/file-20230608-26-5nz4h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531029/original/file-20230608-26-5nz4h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531029/original/file-20230608-26-5nz4h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">El Niño often means winter rain for California. While it’s needed, it’s sometimes too much.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-watches-over-his-backyard-where-mud-is-beginning-to-news-photo/1246694514">Watchara Phomicinda/MediaNews Group/The Press-Enterprise via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But no computer model of any flavor has had experience with the globally super-high ocean temperatures that are occurring right now. The Atlantic <a href="https://theconversation.com/atlantic-hurricane-season-2023-el-nino-and-extreme-atlantic-ocean-heat-are-about-to-clash-204670">is unusually warm</a>, and that could offset some of the usual forces that come with El Niño.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205974/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Leamon receives funding from NASA.</span></em></p>
The official forecast calls for a strong El Niño by winter, but other models suggest it might dip in and out. An atmospheric scientist explains.
Bob Leamon, Associate Research Scientist, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/206922
2023-06-08T12:31:17Z
2023-06-08T12:31:17Z
Republicans’ anti-ESG attack may be silencing insurers, but it isn’t changing their pro-climate business decisions
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530508/original/file-20230607-19-fldsij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C6%2C3995%2C2661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Insurers are facing rising costs from effects of climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/aerial-view-of-new-york-city-skyline-at-night-royalty-free-image/1368629737">© Marco Bottigelli/Moments via Getty Imagse</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over recent months there has been an orchestrated pushback against investors and insurers who integrate the risks of climate change into their business models. That pushback – emanating from Republican-led states – is having an impact on how companies speak publicly. But whether it will affect their efforts to respond to climate change is less clear.</p>
<p>The latest targets have been global insurance companies, and their responses offer some insight. </p>
<p>Under pressure, several major insurers, including <a href="https://www.reinsurancene.ws/axa-and-allianz-have-announced-their-exit-from-the-nzia/">AXA, Allianz</a>, <a href="https://www.reinsurancene.ws/lloyds-becomes-the-10th-major-player-to-mark-its-exit-from-nzia/">Lloyd’s</a> and <a href="https://www.reinsurancene.ws/swiss-re-joins-other-major-re-insurers-in-leaving-net-zero-insurance-alliance/">Swiss Re</a>, have pulled out of a United Nations-organized alliance committed to a global goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century. There’s a word for companies going quiet in the face of orchestrated attacks: “<a href="https://twitter.com/Ros_Rodriguez_/status/1663806010538983426">greenhushing</a>.”</p>
<p>But while the insurers’ departures from the alliance might look like a victory for politicians and political donors who want to delay action on climate change, the companies say leaving doesn’t change their business decisions.</p>
<p>I have worked with businesses globally on sustainable development for <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/staff/rachel-kyte">over 20 years</a> and follow both what they say and what they do. The insurance industry has obvious reasons to care about climate change and efforts to slow it, starting with the fact that disasters cost them money and the risks are rising.</p>
<h2>The assault on protecting the climate</h2>
<p>Republicans began <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/industry-targets-us-republicans-anti-esg-efforts-2023-04-22/">targeting ESG investors</a> – those who incorporate environmental, social and governance performance standards in making investment decisions – a few years ago as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/esg-may-surpass-41-trillion-assets-in-2022-but-not-without-challenges-finds-bloomberg-intelligence/">ESG-managed assets grew</a> into the tens of trillions of dollars. Texas led the way in 2021 <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/24/texas-boycott-companies-fossil-fuels/">with a law</a> prohibiting state entities from investing with firms that cut their investments in fossil fuel industries. </p>
<p>In 2022, Republican state attorneys general began to go after the <a href="https://www.gfanzero.com/">Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero</a>, or GFANZ, an umbrella body for insurers, banks, asset owners and asset managers. The influential group had a starting membership of over 400 financial institutions representing over US$130 trillion of assets under management. </p>
<p>One line of attack accuses GFANZ members of <a href="https://judiciary.house.gov/media/press-releases/judiciary-republicans-woke-companies-pursuing-esg-policies-may-violate">breaking antitrust rules</a>, claiming that when companies participate in groups committed to lowering greenhouse gas emissions, competitors are cooperating in ways that affect prices in violation of U.S. law.</p>
<p><iframe id="A9b1v" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A9b1v/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>“Net-zero” is shorthand for taking steps to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, an international goal to prevent increasingly severe climate damage that is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">fueling severe storms</a>, <a href="https://www.drought.gov/news/study-shows-climate-change-main-driver-increasing-fire-weather-western-us">heat and wildfires</a>. Clubs have formed across the financial value chain to find solutions. Among them is the U.N.-convened <a href="https://www.unepfi.org/net-zero-insurance/">Net-Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA)</a>, a group of some of the world’s leading insurers and reinsurers. Members commit to transitioning their insurance and reinsurance underwriting portfolios to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>In a letter on May 15, 2023, <a href="https://www.propertyinsurancecoveragelaw.com/files/2023/05/2023-05-15-NZIA-Letter.pdf">23 Republican attorneys general</a> took their criticism further and attempted to blame the insurance alliance – rather than the rising cost of disasters like wildfires and hurricanes – for economic ills from rising insurance premiums, fuel prices and inflation.</p>
<p>Facing the threat of lawsuits, whether viable or not, and the potential for reputational harm, several mainly European-based insurers and reinsurers with substantial investments in the U.S. left the group.</p>
<p>The attacks have dampened the public discussion on evolving practices in net-zero pathways and ESG investing, even for those who stay. Fewer firms are keen to draw attention to their progress because, in a global market, the backlash from the U.S. threatens any of them. </p>
<p>GFANZ has stated that the “political attacks are now <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/political-attacks-are-damaging-insurers-climate-efforts-gfanz-2023-05-26/">interfering with insurers’ independent efforts</a> to price climate risk, which will harm policyholders, main street investors and local economies.”</p>
<h2>Silencing climate voices, but not actions</h2>
<p>However, while the insurers might not be speaking out, their assessment of climate trends hasn’t changed, nor has the impact of those trends on their businesses.</p>
<p>When Lloyd’s pulled out of the alliance in late May 2023, the London-based insurance and reinsurance company made clear that it remains “committed to delivering our sustainability strategy including supporting the global economy’s transition.” It said it <a href="https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insights/news/lloyds-has-decided-to-withdraw-from-the-nzia">continues to</a> support the U.N.’s <a href="https://www.unepfi.org/insurance/insurance/">Principles for Sustainable Insurance</a> and <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a>.</p>
<p>Swiss Re also stressed that it has kept its sustainability strategy the same and that its pullout doesn’t reflect a lesser commitment to climate policies. It remains a member of the <a href="https://www.unepfi.org/net-zero-alliance/">Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance</a>.</p>
<p>Swiss Re Group’s data clearly shows the reason why. In 2021, some <a href="https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/sigma-2022-01.html">$270 billion in losses</a> were attributable to natural catastrophes worldwide. The $111 billion of those losses that were insured represented the fourth highest payout since Swiss Re Institute, the insurer’s research arm, began keeping records in 1970.</p>
<p>The World Meteorological Organization reports that weather and climate disasters such as floods, heat waves and forest fires have <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1098662">increased fivefold in the past 50 years</a>. These disasters have caused environmental harm, the loss of <a href="https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21930">more than 2 million lives</a> and more than $3.64 trillion in economic damage.</p>
<p>Not talking about these risks doesn’t help homeowners and businesses that rely on insurance, and doing nothing to stop climate change <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">worsens the threats</a>. Some consultants and auditors have started sounding the alarm that increasing natural catastrophes could <a href="https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/financial-services/library/insurance-industry-trends.html">collapse the insurance market model</a> we know today.</p>
<h2>An economy-wide problem</h2>
<p>The insurance industry plays a crucial role in the overall functioning of economies. It promotes resilience by providing a safety net against unexpected events, helping individuals and businesses to recover more quickly. It facilitates commerce and trade; for instance, marine insurance covers the risks of shipping goods, ensuring that trade flows smoothly. It also encourages risk-management practices.</p>
<p>Without insurance, disaster costs would fall heavily on individuals and businesses, hindering economic growth and stability.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with a tape measure on his belt and camera looks at debris piles left between buildings after Hurricane Michael hit Florida. The siding of the building is also ripped off." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530512/original/file-20230607-28-g6nfvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530512/original/file-20230607-28-g6nfvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530512/original/file-20230607-28-g6nfvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530512/original/file-20230607-28-g6nfvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530512/original/file-20230607-28-g6nfvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530512/original/file-20230607-28-g6nfvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530512/original/file-20230607-28-g6nfvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An insurance adjuster reviews a property in Mexico Beach, Fla., after Hurricane Michael in 2018. The storm caused about $25 billion in damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-insurance-adjuster-looks-over-damage-to-the-home-of-news-photo/1052458328?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Already, as climate risks increase, some regions are becoming increasingly uninsurable. State Farm and Allstate cited wildfire risks when they recently announced they would <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-insurance-companies-are-pulling-out-of-california-and-florida-and-ways-to-fix-the-problem-207172">stop selling new home insurance policies in California</a>, putting pressure on outdated regulation of the insurance industry.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>As the United States heads into its long election season, the ESG backlash risks pushing more companies’ transition pathways into the quiet zone and slowing much-needed regulation.</p>
<p>The world is at an inflection point in its climate transition efforts. Capital is <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-low-carbon-energy-technology-investment-surges-past-1-trillion-for-the-first-time/">shifting to low-emissions technologies</a> and, in some cases, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/05/17/energy-transition-who-wants-to-become-a-heat-pump-billionaire/393c2a9e-f46a-11ed-918d-012572d64930_story.html">reshaping industries</a> faster than imagined. </p>
<p>Insurers have the ability to accelerate the transition through their underwriting practices and promoting risk mitigation through their substantial investment portfolios. They also recognize that, to protect their balance sheets and for the sake of the planet, society needs to pick up the pace in the transition to net zero.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206922/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
A ‘greenhushing’ campaign is targeting insurers, who have the power to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy in how they write policies and invest.
Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/204670
2023-05-30T13:32:14Z
2023-05-30T13:32:14Z
Atlantic hurricane season 2023: El Niño and extreme Atlantic Ocean heat are about to clash
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525823/original/file-20230512-27-skp3ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=500%2C808%2C4292%2C2892&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Florence, seen from the International Space Station in 2018. Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-scientists-available-for-interviews-throughout-hurricane-season">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">Atlantic hurricane season</a> starts on June 1, and forecasters are keeping a close eye on rising ocean temperatures, and not just in the Atlantic. </p>
<p>Globally, warm sea surface temperatures that can fuel hurricanes have been <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">off the charts</a> in the spring of 2023, but what really matters for Atlantic hurricanes are the ocean temperatures in two locations: the North Atlantic basin, where hurricanes are born and intensify, and the eastern-central tropical Pacific Ocean, where El Niño forms.</p>
<p>This year, the two are in conflict – and likely to exert <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00687.1">counteracting influences</a> on the crucial conditions that can make or break an Atlantic hurricane season. The result could be good news for the Caribbean and Atlantic coasts: a near-average hurricane season. But forecasters are warning that that hurricane forecast hinges on El Niño panning out.</p>
<h2>Ingredients of a hurricane</h2>
<p>In general, hurricanes are more likely to form and intensify when a tropical low-pressure system <a href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/tc">encounters an environment</a> with warm upper-ocean temperatures, moisture in the atmosphere, instability and weak vertical wind shear.</p>
<p>Warm ocean temperatures provide energy for a hurricane to develop. Vertical wind shear, or the difference in the strength and direction of winds between the lower and upper regions of a tropical storm, disrupts the organization of convection – the thunderstorms – and brings dry air into the storm, inhibiting its growth.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LlXVikDkyTg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How hurricanes form. National Geographic.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Atlantic Ocean’s role</h2>
<p>The Atlantic Ocean’s role is pretty straightforward. Hurricanes draw energy from warm ocean water beneath them. The warmer the ocean temperatures, the better for hurricanes, all else being equal.</p>
<p>Tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures were unusually warm during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-so-intense-it-just-ran-out-of-storm-names-146506">most active Atlantic hurricane seasons</a> on recent record. The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl">2020 Atlantic hurricane season</a> produced a record 30 named tropical cyclones, while the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2005&basin=atl">2005 Atlantic hurricane season</a> produced 28 named storms, a record 15 of which became hurricanes, including Katrina.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two maps showing tropical cyclone tracks. The tracks correspond with warmer water temperatures in the sea surface temperature maps below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525807/original/file-20230512-19-vlw6cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The top images show where Atlantic tropical storms traveled in 2005, on the left, and in 2020, on the right. The lower images show the corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies for the August-October peak of the hurricane season compared with the August-October 1991-2020 average in degrees Celsius.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How the Pacific Ocean gets involved</h2>
<p>The tropical Pacific Ocean’s role in Atlantic hurricane formation is more complicated.</p>
<p>You may be wondering, how can ocean temperatures on the other side of the Americas influence Atlantic hurricanes? The answer lies in teleconnections. A teleconnection is a chain of processes in which a change in the ocean or atmosphere in one region leads to large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature that can influence the weather elsewhere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Sea surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius observed during three El Niño events show differences in location and strength of ocean warming." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525798/original/file-20230512-19-ts6p2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525798/original/file-20230512-19-ts6p2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525798/original/file-20230512-19-ts6p2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525798/original/file-20230512-19-ts6p2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525798/original/file-20230512-19-ts6p2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525798/original/file-20230512-19-ts6p2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525798/original/file-20230512-19-ts6p2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three examples of of how sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific change during El Niño events.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christina Patricola</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One recurring pattern of tropical Pacific climate variability that initiates teleconnections is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">El Niño-Southern Oscillation</a>.</p>
<p>When the tropical eastern-central Pacific Ocean is unusually warm, El Niño can form. During El Niño events, the warm upper-ocean temperatures change the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy">vertical and east-west atmospheric circulation</a> in the tropics. That initiates a teleconnection by <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg">affecting the east-west winds</a> in the upper atmosphere throughout the tropics, ultimately resulting in stronger vertical wind shear in the Atlantic basin. That wind shear can tamp down hurricanes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two illustrations of Walker Circulation patterns. El Niño reverses direction and strength compared with a neutral ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525801/original/file-20230512-11356-c42xch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How El Niño conditions affect the Walker Circulation’s air flow, which can affect weather around the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy">Fiona Martin/NOAA Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s what forecasters are expecting to happen this summer. The latest forecasts show <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/may-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-knocking-door">a 90% likelihood</a> that El Niño will develop by August and stay strong through the fall peak of the hurricane season.</p>
<h2>A tug of war between Atlantic and Pacific influences</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GZwohvoAAAAJ&hl=en">My research</a> and work by other atmospheric scientists has shown that a warm Atlantic and a warm tropical Pacific tend to counteract each other, leading to near-average Atlantic hurricane seasons. </p>
<p>Both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00687.1">observations and climate model simulations</a> have shown that outcome. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook">2023 forecast</a> calls for a near-average 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. An earlier outlook from <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html">Colorado State University</a> forecasters anticipates a slightly below-average season, with 13 named storms, compared with a climatological average of 14.4. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map showing warmer than normal temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean south of the Virginia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525796/original/file-20230512-12302-prwz4c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525796/original/file-20230512-12302-prwz4c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525796/original/file-20230512-12302-prwz4c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525796/original/file-20230512-12302-prwz4c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525796/original/file-20230512-12302-prwz4c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525796/original/file-20230512-12302-prwz4c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525796/original/file-20230512-12302-prwz4c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius forecast for August to October 2023 shows a warm season relative to the 1991-2020 average for the same months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html">Based on NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The wild cards to watch</h2>
<p>Although tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperatures often inform skillful seasonal hurricane forecasts, there are other factors to consider and monitor.</p>
<p>First, will the forecast El Niño and Atlantic warming pan out? If one or the other does not, that could tip the balance in the tug of war between the influences.</p>
<p>The Atlantic Coast should be rooting for El Niño to develop as forecast, since such events often reduce hurricane impacts there. If this year’s expected Atlantic Ocean warming were instead <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season">paired with La Niña</a> – El Nino’s opposite, characterized by cool tropical Pacific waters – that could have led to a record-breaking active season instead.</p>
<p>Two other factors are also important. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00483.1">Madden-Julian Oscillation</a>, a pattern of clouds and rainfall that travels eastward through the tropics on a time scale of 30 to 90 days, can either encourage or suppress tropical storm formation. And dust storms from the <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/saharan-air-layer/">Saharan air layer</a>, which contains warm, dry and dusty air from Africa, can suppress tropical cyclones.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Patricola receives funding from the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>
Current forecasts suggest a warm tropical Pacific will be interfering with what could otherwise be a ferocious Atlantic hurricane season.
Christina Patricola, Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/204526
2023-05-25T19:14:42Z
2023-05-25T19:14:42Z
2023 hurricane forecast: Get ready for a busy Pacific storm season, quieter Atlantic than recent years thanks to El Niño
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526058/original/file-20230514-129248-2f6227.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1615%2C5%2C1960%2C1281&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Twenty years of storm tracks in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_track#/media/File:Global_tropical_cyclone_tracks-edit2.jpg">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The official <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528409/original/file-20230525-15023-h40sij.png">2023 hurricane season forecasts</a> were just released, and while the Atlantic may see <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook">an average storm season</a> this year, a busier-than-normal season is <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html">forecast in the eastern Pacific</a>, meaning heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii.</p>
<p>A big reason is El Niño. </p>
<p>El Niño typically means trouble for the Pacific and a break for the Atlantic coast and Caribbean. But while this climate phenomenon is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/may-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-knocking-door">highly likely to form</a> this year, it isn’t a certainty before hurricane season ramps up this summer, and that makes it harder to know what might happen.</p>
<p>It’s also important to remember that even in quiet years, a single storm can cause enormous destruction.</p>
<p><iframe id="WRlId" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WRlId/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe id="0wVv8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0wVv8/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As climate scientists, we study how climate patterns related to the frequency and intensity of hurricanes – information that is used to develop seasonal forecasts. Here is a quick look at how El Niño affects storms and why it tends to <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season">cause opposite effects</a> in two basins separated only by a narrow stretch of land. </p>
<h2>A tale of two basins</h2>
<p>It’s helpful to start by visualizing where tropical storms develop in each ocean.</p>
<p>In the North Atlantic, tropical storms typically form over the warm waters west of Africa. As they move westward, they often hit Caribbean islands before making landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, or they curve off into the Atlantic. </p>
<p>Those tropical storms and hurricanes have caused over <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/hurricane-costs.html">a trillion dollars in damage</a> in the U.S. since 1981. <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/2022-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historical-context">That damage</a> is expected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1357">continue to increase</a>, both because warming global temperatures fuel <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0338.1">stronger storms</a> and because more people are building homes and businesses in harm’s way.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showings location of storm formation and direction of movement." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524702/original/file-20230505-21-zw0ali.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where tropical storms form in each basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/tc">National Weather Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the eastern North Pacific, tropical storms tend to form closer to land, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900533">between Mexico and Clipperton Island</a> off Central America. They typically move to the northwest before turning westward out to sea, sometimes inundating the Mexican coast known as the Mexican Riviera. Longer-tracked Pacific storms that move into the central Pacific can affect shipping and hit Hawaii, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/28/us/hawaii-tropical-storm-lane-flooding-wxc/index.html">Hurricane Lane did in 2018</a>.</p>
<p>While the Atlantic gets the most attention, largely because it gets more damage with more people and property in the way, the Pacific tends to get more storms, especially during El Niño years. It’s often a <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528413/original/file-20230525-25-4e6pk1.png">seesaw pattern</a>, with a busy year in one basin and a quieter season in the other.</p>
<p><iframe id="p0KsO" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p0KsO/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>El Niño creates a seesaw pattern</h2>
<p>That <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season">seesaw pattern</a> is largely driven by the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/enso">El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO</a>, which includes varying strengths of El Niño and its opposite, La Niña.</p>
<p><a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html">During El Niño</a>, the trade winds that blow from east to west weaken, allowing warm ocean water to build up at the equator, west of South America. This causes a shift in the jet streams – strong upper-level winds – which affects rainfall and temperature patterns.</p>
<p>In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño causes an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere known as a trough and stronger upper-level winds, resulting in increased vertical wind shear – a change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. Wind shear can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053%3C2076:TEOVSO%3E2.0.CO;2">tilt and stabilize</a> storms, allowing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112%3C1649:ASHFPI%3E2.0.CO;2">fewer hurricanes</a> to form.</p>
<p>Conversely, El Niño typically causes an upper-level ridge, or area of high pressure, and decreased vertical wind shear in the eastern North Pacific basin, and often results in an active hurricane season.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing where El Niño heat forms and impact on Atlantic and Pacific" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524703/original/file-20230505-27-wjdirr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Impacts of El Niño.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season">NOAA Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La Niña – El Niño’s opposite, with cooler water in the tropical Pacific – reverses this pattern. The <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-takes-infamous-top-spot-for-busiest-on-record">record 2020</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/11/30/atlantic-hurricane-season-2021-recap/">destructive 2021</a> Atlantic hurricane seasons were both during strong La Niña years.</p>
<p>On longer time scales, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a fluctuation of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, affects hurricane activity in <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/stories/atlantic-high-activity-eras-what-does-it-mean-for-hurricane-season">cycles that span several decades</a>. The AMO’s current warm phase, which began in 1995, has hosted seven of the 10 busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons. Hurricane activity often lessens in a cool phase of the AMO, during which the Atlantic is on average about <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php">1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 Celsius) cooler</a>. </p>
<h2>Who faces the greatest risk in the Pacific?</h2>
<p>El Niño also changes who is at risk in the Pacific.</p>
<p>During El Niño events, storms in the eastern North Pacific <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900533">tend to form farther to the west</a>. With these events, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3538.1">environmental conditions in the western portion</a> of the basin tend to become more conducive than normal to tropical cyclones, such as having reduced environmental vertical wind shear and warmer ocean temperatures. That <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3C2683:TCOITV%3E2.0.CO;2">places Hawaii and the central Pacific at greater risk</a> from damaging storms than normal.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three people stand under umbrellas on a bridge watching a rushing river below. It's clearly well beyond its banks, with a tree in the middle of the water, and moving so fast spray is coming up." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528405/original/file-20230525-19-834g4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528405/original/file-20230525-19-834g4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528405/original/file-20230525-19-834g4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528405/original/file-20230525-19-834g4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528405/original/file-20230525-19-834g4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528405/original/file-20230525-19-834g4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528405/original/file-20230525-19-834g4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Lane brought more than a foot of rain and flash flooding to Hawaii in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-watch-the-wailuku-river-flood-waters-on-the-big-news-photo/1022108102">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The highly destructive Hurricanes <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132013_Manuel.pdf">Manuel in 2013</a> and <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP242018_Willa.pdf">Willa in 2018</a> show the immense impact Pacific storms can have in the region. Both triggered widespread flooding and mudslides in Mexico, and together led to over 125 deaths. In Hawaii, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/iniki1.pdf">Hurricane Iniki</a>’s storm surge and winds in 1992 destroyed over 1,400 homes on Kauai and damaged thousands more.</p>
<p>El Niño years also increase the viability of storms affecting the southwestern U.S. In 1997, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127%3C2440:ENPHSO%3E2.0.CO;2">multiple storms affected California and Arizona</a>, including some that moved into the region after landfall in Mexico. Famously, in 2014, rough surf and swells associated with Hurricane Marie caused <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132014_Marie.pdf">over US$16 million in damage</a> at the Port of Long Beach. </p>
<h2>Why 2023 hurricane forecasts are so uncertain</h2>
<p>Forecasting the 2023 hurricane seasons is proving to be challenging for another reason: The Atlantic has abnormally warm sea surface temperatures this year, and that can power hurricanes – if storms are able to form. </p>
<p>Will the warm waters of the Atlantic overcome the unfavorable conditions brought by the El Niño? We’ll soon know. </p>
<p>The eastern Pacific hurricane season started May 15, and the Atlantic season starts June 1, with both running through Nov. 30. </p>
<p>In its <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook">2023 Atlantic hurricane outlook</a> released in late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. In the <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html">eastern Pacific, NOAA forecasts</a> 14 to 20 named storms, seven to 11 hurricanes and four to eight major hurricanes. For the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-near-or-above-normal-2023-central-pacific-hurricane-season">central Pacific</a>, including Hawaii, NOAA’s forecast includes four to seven cyclones, also above or close to average.</p>
<p>Surprisingly, the Atlantic has already seen its first storm of the year – a storm in January was recently <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/PNSNHC/2023/PNSNHC.202305111500.txt">classified as a subtropical cyclone</a>. This is rare. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03734-6">Our research</a> shows the median date of the first named tropical cyclone is May 30 in the Pacific and June 20 in the Atlantic, though Atlantic storms have been occurring, on average, earlier each year. We should expect the next named Atlantic and Pacific storms – <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml">Arlene and Adrian</a>, respectively – in the coming weeks.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated May 30, 2023, to corrects reference to storms forming off Africa.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204526/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelsey Ellis receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Grondin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
El Niño years put Hawaii and the Mexican Riviera on alert for destructive tropical storms and hurricanes.
Kelsey Ellis, Associate Professor of Geography, University of Tennessee
Nicholas Grondin, Recent PhD Graduate in Geography, University of Tennessee
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/199637
2023-02-10T17:01:52Z
2023-02-10T17:01:52Z
Bahamas songbird is under threat of extinction – but preserving old pine forests will help save it
<p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahama_warbler">Bahama warbler</a>, a small songbird found exclusively on Grand Bahama and Abaco, two islands in the north-east <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucayan_Archipelago#/media/File:Map_of_the_Caribbean-Lucayan_Archipelago.png">Bahama archipelago</a> only “became” a species in 2010. But due to its <a href="https://academic.oup.com/auk/article/127/4/932/5148703">limited range</a> and increasingly <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/John-Lloyd-15/publication/228394066_Taxonomy_and_population_size_of_the_Bahama_Nuthatch/links/0912f50d45df51b40d000000/Taxonomy-and-population-size-of-the-Bahama-Nuthatch.pdf">fragmented habitat</a>, the warbler was immediately treated as a species of conservation concern.</p>
<p>In 2016, these islands were devastated by a category five storm called <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142016_Matthew.pdf">Hurricane Matthew</a>. Storms of this strength pose a serious threat to the Bahamas’s unique <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-dorian-was-also-a-catastrophe-for-the-bahamas-unique-birds-123493">birdlife</a>. So as conservation biologists, we wanted to determine how well the warbler had fared.</p>
<p>In 2018, our University of East Anglia Masters’ students, David Pereira and Matthew Gardner, spent three months <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bird-conservation-international/article/abs/distribution-and-habitat-requirements-of-the-bahama-warbler-setophaga-flavescens-on-grand-bahama-in-2018/2068B09FA0293A394DCF7A80F2F04376">researching</a> birds on Grand Bahama island. They chose Grand Bahama because this island was the sole home of another newly recognised species, the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/William-Hayes-9/publication/238112811_Grand_Bahama's_Brown-headed_Nuthatch_A_Distinct_and_Endangered_Species/links/02e7e52c27788d6b43000000/Grand-Bahamas-Brown-headed-Nuthatch-A-Distinct-and-Endangered-Species.pdf">Bahama nuthatch</a>. Both species are tied closely to the native Caribbean pine forests that cover (or covered) the islands.</p>
<p>Matthew and David played a recording of the nuthatch’s call in order to attract and observe it. They covered all of the island this way and measured habitats everywhere to work out what particular characteristics are preferred by the two species. The fieldwork went well for the warbler, but much less so for the nuthatch. </p>
<h2>Preferred habitat</h2>
<p>The Lucayan estates, an area in the middle of the island where there are the most remaining pine trees, proved to be the best place for both birds. They recorded 233 warblers there and 94 further east. But at the island’s west and east extremities, where the pines were smallest and their condition poor, they found none. They only recorded a nuthatch on six separate occasions.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Grand Bahama's pine forests." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509424/original/file-20230210-14-kicqoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daniel Pereira carrying out fieldwork in Grand Bahama’s pine forests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Gardner</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On analysing their data, Matthew and David found that the warbler was most likely to be encountered in areas of forest where fewer pines had lost their needles. Pine trees losing their needles is a sign of environmental stress and is induced by wind damage and saltwater penetration. The warbler also lived where <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrinax_radiata">thatch palms</a>, a small tree but the largest beneath the forest canopy, were taller.</p>
<p>The warbler forages among pine needles, on thatch palms, and also on tree bark. So naturally, bigger pines and palms will have larger areas in which the species can forage.</p>
<p>Areas that had suffered a degree of burning were also favoured by the Bahama warbler. Pinewoods in the Americas tend to burn every few years. This often occurs when lightning strikes following a period of drought.</p>
<p>Yet these fires are usually “cool”, meaning they affect tree bark and surrounding undergrowth, but rarely the canopy. The larger pine trees and thatch palms survive these fires well.</p>
<p>Bark that has been damaged by fire cracks and lifts. This offers a niche habitat for insects to hide in and breed, meaning there are probably more insects per foraging patch in these areas than elsewhere on the island. This is how David explains the warbler’s use of areas where fires have created such conditions.</p>
<h2>Species under threat</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite image of a large hurricane in the Caribbean Sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509410/original/file-20230210-27-rcvo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509410/original/file-20230210-27-rcvo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509410/original/file-20230210-27-rcvo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509410/original/file-20230210-27-rcvo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509410/original/file-20230210-27-rcvo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509410/original/file-20230210-27-rcvo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509410/original/file-20230210-27-rcvo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Dorian in the Caribbean Sea on its way to US mainland in August 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hurricane-dorian-carribean-sea-on-way-1492317566">lavizzara/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a year after the survey, another category five storm completely obliterated Grand Bahama’s forests with winds of up to 185 mph. This storm, called <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf">Hurricane Dorian</a>, was one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to make landfall on the Bahama’s and inflicted <a href="https://nypost.com/2019/11/16/damaged-caused-by-hurricane-dorian-totals-3-4b-in-the-bahamas/">US$3.4 (£2.8) billion</a> in damage.</p>
<p>Since the hurricane, there have been no reports of Bahama warblers or nuthatch on Grand Bahama. The <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2215361-hurricane-dorian-may-have-made-a-species-of-bird-go-extinct/">Bahama nuthatch</a> may now be extinct. But birders have more recently reported sightings of the warbler on the neighbouring island of Abaco. We predict that the warbler now only survives there.</p>
<p>Our research may help to conserve the remaining Bahama warbler populations on Abaco. Ensuring habitats include large old pines and tall thatch palms, preferably managed for fire, will be crucial to ensuring the species’ survival.</p>
<p>But climate models show that global warming is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34321-6">increasing</a> hurricane frequency and raising the probability that tropical storms grow into intense, damaging hurricanes in just a few hours. Other <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo779">research</a>, carried out in 2010, indicates that tropical storms may become stronger and 2–11% more intense by 2100.</p>
<p>Abaco’s pine forest habitats could be affected by these more intense hurricanes in the future. Surveying the Abaco population of Bahama Warblers is now a matter of urgency to determine the species’ status on the island.</p>
<p>What this sad episode tells us is that conservationists will have to move warblers to other pine islands to establish reserve populations in case the next hurricane makes landfall on Abaco. This has saved other island bird species in the past.</p>
<p>In 2011, 59 <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David-Wright-60/publication/264309452_Translocation_of_the_Seychelles_warbler_Acrocephalus_sechellensis_to_establish_a_new_population_on_Denis_Island_Seychelles/links/53d7d7da0cf2631430bfc5b6/Translocation-of-the-Seychelles-warbler-Acrocephalus-sechellensis-to-establish-a-new-population-on-Denis-Island-Seychelles.pdf">Seychelles warblers</a> were captured on Cousin Island and released on Frégate Island. By 2013, the population of the Seychelles warbler on Frégate had increased to 80 individuals including 38 of the original birds. However, this method is expensive as it must be determined whether the new region is a suitable host for the new species and would require significant funding and support in the Bahamas.</p>
<p>But time must not be wasted as the threat of extinction to the Bahama Warbler grows with each passing hurricane season. We must now try to secure the most threatened species from extinction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199637/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The Bahama warbler favours large pine trees and palms, fieldwork shows.
Diana Bell, Professor of Conservation Biology, University of East Anglia
Nigel Collar, Honorary Professor of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/196470
2023-02-07T13:34:48Z
2023-02-07T13:34:48Z
Hurricane Harvey more than doubled the acidity of Texas’ Galveston Bay, threatening oyster reefs
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507440/original/file-20230131-4643-5mjeyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5400%2C3564&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Seabirds forage on an oyster shell island on the Texas Gulf Coast.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-american-oystercatcher-haematopus-palliatus-foraging-on-news-photo/1449679985">Jon G. Fuller/VW Pics/ Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most people associate hurricanes with high winds, intense rain and rapid flooding on land. But these storms can also change the chemistry of coastal waters. Such shifts are less visible than damage on land, but they can have dire consequences for marine life and coastal ocean ecosystems. </p>
<p>We are oceanographers who study the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=u7D6sQgAAAAJ&hl=en">effects of ocean acidification</a>, including on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MOYxO9MAAAAJ&hl=en">organisms like oysters and corals</a>. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">recent study</a>, we examined how stormwater runoff from Hurricane Harvey in 2017 affected the water chemistry of Galveston Bay and the health of the bay’s oyster reefs. We wanted to understand how extreme rainfall and runoff from hurricanes influenced acidification of bay waters, and how long these changes could last. </p>
<p>Our findings were startling. Hurricane Harvey, which generated massive rainfall in the Houston metropolitan area, delivered a huge pulse of fresh water into Galveston Bay. As a result, the bay was two to four times more acidic than normal for at least three weeks after the storm.</p>
<p>This made bay water corrosive enough to damage oyster shells in the estuary. Because oyster growth and recovery rely on many factors, it is hard to tie specific changes to acidification. However, increased acidification certainly would have made it harder for oyster reefs damaged by Hurricane Harvey to recover. And while our study focused on Galveston Bay, we suspect that similar processes may be occurring in other coastal areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite photo of Houston and the gulf coast immediately after Harvey." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507436/original/file-20230131-5037-8ovozq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This satellite image, taken six days after Harvey made landfall, shows Galveston Bay and other rivers and bays around Houston filled with brown sediment-laden floodwaters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90866/texas-waters-run-brown-after-harvey">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vast quantities of water</h2>
<p>Scientists predict that climate change will make hurricanes stronger and <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3184/a-force-of-nature-hurricanes-in-a-changing-climate/">increase the amount of rain they produce</a> over the next several decades. Changes in ocean chemistry, caused by runoff from these storms, are becoming an increasing threat to many marine ecosystems, especially coastal reefs built by oysters and corals. </p>
<p><a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/estuary.html">Coastal estuaries</a> like Galveston Bay, where rivers meet the sea, are some of the most productive ecosystems in the world. Galveston Bay is the largest bay on the Texas coast and one of the largest in the U.S.; it covers about 600 square miles, roughly half the size of Rhode Island. Its extensive oyster reefs provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145132">about 9% of the national oyster harvest</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/reviewing-hurricane-harveys-catastrophic-rain-and-flooding">Hurricane Harvey</a>, the wettest tropical cyclone in U.S. history, made landfall on the Texas coast as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 26, 2017. Harvey stalled at the coast for four days, sitting over both land and ocean. </p>
<p>Maintaining contact with warm Gulf of Mexico waters fueled the storm with both energy and rainfall, allowing it to persist and drop extreme amounts of rain directly onto Houston and surrounding areas – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-made-the-rain-in-hurricane-harvey-so-extreme-83137">up to 50 inches in four days</a>. All of that rain and floodwater had to go somewhere, and much of it flowed into Galveston Bay. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YzQGgyrxXiI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">These videos show the scale of flooding across Houston from Hurricane Harvey.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change and ocean acidification</h2>
<p>The ocean acidification issues that we study are a <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warmings-evil-twin-ocean-acidification-19017">well-known effect related to climate change</a>. Human activities, mainly burning fossil fuel, emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The ocean absorbs about one-third of these emissions, which alters ocean chemistry, making seawater more acidic. </p>
<p>Acidification can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ocean-acidification/effects-ocean-and-coastal-acidification-marine-life">harm many forms of marine life</a>. It is especially dangerous for animals that build their shells and skeletons out of calcium carbonate, such as oysters and corals. As seawater becomes more acidic, it makes these structures harder to build and easier to erode. </p>
<p>Oysters fuse together as they grow, creating large rocklike underwater reefs that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbFQ5EndLso">protect shorelines from wave erosion</a>. These reefs <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/habitat-conservation/oyster-reef-habitat">provide habitat</a> for other creatures, such as barnacles, anemones and mussels, which in turn serve as food sources for many fish species. </p>
<p>Rising atmospheric CO₂ levels are acidifying oceans worldwide. As our study shows, local events like tropical cyclones can add to global acidification. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"661924520496922624"}"></div></p>
<h2>Stormwater from Harvey caused extreme coastal acidification</h2>
<p>The main cause of the unprecedented acidification that occurred after Hurricane Harvey was the excessive amount of rainfall and runoff that entered Galveston Bay. To help manage large-scale flooding in the Houston area, the city released large volumes of water from reservoirs for more than two months after Harvey. These releases extended the time during which stormwater entered Galveston Bay and increased its acidity. </p>
<p>Scientists use the pH scale to measure how acidic or basic (alkaline) water is. A pH value of 7 is neutral; higher values are basic, and lower values are acidic. The pH scale is logarithmic, so a decrease of one full unit – say, from 8 to 7 – represents a tenfold increase in acidity. </p>
<p>Rainwater is more acidic than either river water or seawater, which pick up minerals from soil that are slightly basic and can balance out absorbed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Rainwater’s pH is around 5.6, compared with <a href="https://datastream.org/en/guide/ph">between 6.5 and 8.2 for rivers</a> and <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification">about 8.1 for seawater</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Th pH scale with values for common substances." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508452/original/file-20230206-25-fdap84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pH scale shows how acidic or basic substances are.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.epa.gov/acidrain/what-acid-rain">USEPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Galveston Bay contains a mix of fresh water from rivers and salty seawater from the Gulf of Mexico – oysters’ preferred habitat. We collected water samples in the bay two weeks after Harvey and found that the bay was made up almost entirely of river water and rainwater from the storm. </p>
<p>Since rainwater, river water and seawater all have different chemistries, we were able to calculate that rainwater made up almost 50% of the water in the bay. This means that acidic rainwater from Harvey replaced the basic seawater within the bay after the storm. The average bay water pH had dropped from 8 to 7.6, a 2.5-fold increase in acidity. Some zones had pH even as low as 7.4 – four times more acidic than normal. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar charts showing combinations of seawater, river water and rainwater in Galveston Bay before and after Hurricane Harvey." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507432/original/file-20230131-24-p6tcnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These charts show how rainfall and runoff from Hurricane Harvey altered the composition of Galveston Bay after the storm made landfall on August 25, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">Tacey Hicks, modified from Hicks et al., 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This extreme acidification lasted for more than three weeks. Bay waters became corrosive not only to more sensitive larval and juvenile oyster shells, but to adult oyster shells as well. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20378">Scientists had predicted</a> that increasing CO₂ could cause this scale of coastal acidification but did not expect to see it until around the year 2100. </p>
<p>The fresh water from Harvey also caused a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145132">severe oyster die-off</a> in the bay because oysters need slightly salty water to survive. Harvey struck in the middle of oyster spawning season, and acidification may have slowed reef recovery by making it harder for young oysters to form new shells. Officials at the <a href="https://tpwd.texas.gov/">Texas Parks and Wildlife Department</a> have told us that four years later, in late 2021, some Galveston Bay oyster reefs still showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00608-1">very low additions of new oysters</a>. </p>
<h2>Other coastal areas at risk</h2>
<p>Only a few studies, including ours, have analyzed how tropical cyclones affect coastal acidification. In our view, however, it is highly possible that other storms have caused the kind of extreme acidification that we detected in the wake of Harvey. </p>
<p>We reviewed the 10 wettest <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcmaxima.html">tropical cyclones in the U.S. since 1900</a> and found that nine, including Harvey, caused large amounts of rain and flooding in coastal areas with bay or estuary ecosystems. Other storms didn’t produce as much rainfall as Harvey, but some of the affected bays were much smaller than Galveston Bay, so less rain would have been needed to replace seawater in the bay and cause a similar level of acidification to what Harvey produced.</p>
<p>We think that this likely has already occurred in other places struck by hurricanes but went unrecorded because scientists weren’t able to measure acidification before and after the storms. As climate change continues to make tropical cyclones larger and wetter, we see storm-induced acidification as a significant threat to coastal ecosystems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tacey Hicks received funding from Texas Sea Grant to support the publication of this study. Tacey Hicks is currently affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Texas Sea Grant as part of the John A Knauss Marine Policy Fellowship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Shamberger receives funding from the National Science Foundation, US Department of Energy, and US Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>
Climate change is making oceans more acidic globally. Now, scientists are finding that large storms can send pulses of acidic water into bays and estuaries, further stressing fish and shellfish.
Tacey Hicks, PhD Candidate in Oceanography, Texas A&M University
Kathryn Shamberger, Associate Professor of Oceanography, Texas A&M University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/197524
2023-01-10T23:26:47Z
2023-01-10T23:26:47Z
2022’s billion-dollar disasters: Climate change helped make it US’s 3rd most expensive year on record
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503919/original/file-20230110-20-9wzimt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C3375%2C2228&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Several areas were hit with 1,000-year floods in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-homes-submerged-under-flood-waters-from-the-news-photo/1242170051">Leandro Lozada/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. weather disasters are <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/2022?disasters%5B%5D=all-disasters">getting costlier</a> as more people <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-so-many-people-have-moved-to-florida-and-into-harms-way-191733">move into vulnerable areas</a> and climate change <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202212">raises the risks</a> of extreme heat and rainfall, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials warned as they released their annual billion-dollar disasters report on Jan. 10, 2023.</p>
<p>Even with an average hurricane season, 2022 had the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/time-series">third-highest number</a> of billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. since 1980.</p>
<p>In all, there were 18 disasters that each caused more than US$1 billion in damage in the U.S. The list included three hurricanes, two tornado outbreaks, a destructive fire season, several extreme storms and a drought that disrupted sectors across the economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing disasters, including several severe storms" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2022 had 18 disasters that exceeded $1 billion each in damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">NCEI/NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was also the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">third-costliest year</a>, with past years adjusted for inflation, due primarily to Hurricane Ian’s widespread damage in Florida. Together, the 2022 disasters topped $165 billion, with damage still being tallied from December’s winter storms. </p>
<p>Several scientists wrote about the year’s U.S. weather disasters and connections to climate change. Here are three essential reads from The Conversation’s archive:</p>
<h2>1. Hurricane Ian</h2>
<p>The most expensive U.S. weather disaster of 2022 was Hurricane Ian, which grew into a monster of a storm over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico in late September. </p>
<p>Ian hit the barriers islands off Fort Myers, Florida, with 150-mph winds, tying for the fifth-strongest wind speed at U.S. landfall on record. Its storm surge swept through coastal neighborhoods, where the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/12/florida-fastest-growing-state.html">population has boomed</a> in recent years, and its rainfall caused flooding across a large swath of the state. Twenty inches of rain fell in Daytona Beach, triggering <a href="https://theconversation.com/dreaming-of-beachfront-real-estate-much-of-floridas-coast-is-at-risk-of-storm-erosion-that-can-cause-homes-to-collapse-as-daytona-just-saw-194492">erosion, with devastating consequences</a>. </p>
<p>At least <a href="https://www.fdle.state.fl.us/News/2022/December/Update-Florida-Medical-Examiners-Commission-Hu-(1)">144 deaths</a> were attributed to the storm in Florida alone, and the total damage neared $113 billion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Houses on a road, now underwater, are torn apart, with water on both sides." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503930/original/file-20230110-24-zh28b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503930/original/file-20230110-24-zh28b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503930/original/file-20230110-24-zh28b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503930/original/file-20230110-24-zh28b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503930/original/file-20230110-24-zh28b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503930/original/file-20230110-24-zh28b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503930/original/file-20230110-24-zh28b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Ian’s wind and storm surge tore up homes and roads on the Gulf Coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-wreckage-left-in-the-wake-of-hurricane-news-photo/1429418028">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Did <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ian-capped-2-weeks-of-extreme-storms-around-the-globe-heres-whats-known-about-how-climate-change-fuels-tropical-cyclones-191583">global warming play a role</a>? </p>
<p>In some ways, yes, but there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to hurricanes, explained climate scientists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=en">Matthew Barlow of UMass-Lowell</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=w8sSgzcAAAAJ&hl=en">Suzana Camargo of Columbia University</a>.</p>
<p>For example, “it is clear that climate change increases the upper limit on hurricane strength and rain rate, and that it also raises the average sea level and therefore storm surge,” Barlow and Camargo wrote.</p>
<p>Less clear is global warming’s influence on hurricane frequency, though research points to an uptick in the strength of storms that do form. “We expect more of them to be major storms,” the scientists wrote. “Hurricane Ian and other recent storms, including the 2020 Atlantic season, provide a picture of what that can look like.”</p>
<p>Globally, 2022 was the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202212">fifth or sixth warmest</a> year in over 140 years of record-keeping, according to data sets from NASA and NOAA. The last <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2022-was-year-climate-extremes-record-high-temperatures-and-rising-concentrations">eight years have been the warmest</a> on record. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2">Ocean temperatures were also at record highs</a> in 2022.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ian-capped-2-weeks-of-extreme-storms-around-the-globe-heres-whats-known-about-how-climate-change-fuels-tropical-cyclones-191583">Hurricane Ian capped 2 weeks of extreme storms around the globe: Here's what's known about how climate change fuels tropical cyclones</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. The drought</h2>
<p>The second-costliest disaster, at over $22 billion, was the widespread drought across much of the U.S. West and parts of the Midwest. It left reservoirs <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-water-strategy-for-the-parched-west-have-cities-pay-farmers-to-install-more-efficient-irrigation-systems-185820">near record lows</a>, disrupted farming in several states and temporarily <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-low-water-levels-on-the-mississippi-river-in-2022-show-how-climate-change-is-altering-large-rivers-193920">shut down barge traffic on the Mississippi River</a>. </p>
<p>At one point, 2,000 barges were backed up along the river, where 92% of U.S. agriculture exports travel.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MM-menv6EJA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Mississippi River drought in October 2022.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rivers the size of the Mississippi can be slow to respond to droughts, but during the flash drought of 2022, the river fell 20 feet in less than three months – even though its major tributaries were flowing at normal levels, wrote earth scientists <a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1052-8530">Ray Lombardi</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Anzhelika-Antipova">Angela Antipova</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kT86crsAAAAJ&hl=en">Dorian Burnette</a> of the University of Memphis.</p>
<p>They described the dramatic drop in the river’s water levels as a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/record-low-water-levels-on-the-mississippi-river-in-2022-show-how-climate-change-is-altering-large-rivers-193920">preview of a climate-altered future</a>.”</p>
<p>“Warmer atmospheric temperatures have the potential to evaporate more water, causing drought, and to hold more water, causing extreme rainfall,” the scientists wrote. “Over the past 100 years, year-to-year changes from very dry to very wet in the Mississippi River Valley have become more frequent. We expect this trend to continue as global temperatures continue to rise because of climate change.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/record-low-water-levels-on-the-mississippi-river-in-2022-show-how-climate-change-is-altering-large-rivers-193920">Record low water levels on the Mississippi River in 2022 show how climate change is altering large rivers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Extreme storms and flooding</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A girl in rain boots walks through a mud-filled yard. Damaged mattresses and other belongings from a flooded house are piled nearby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flash flooding swept through mountain valleys in eastern Kentucky in July 2022, killing more than three dozen people. It was one of several destructive floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/local-fire-chief-and-his-daughter-drop-off-goods-for-a-news-photo/1242236541">Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of 2022’s billion-dollar disasters involved extreme storms, including hail, <a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-climate-change-and-why-dixie-is-the-new-tornado-alley-178863">deadly tornado outbreaks</a>, and a derecho that damaged property from Wisconsin to West Virginia. </p>
<p>It was also a <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-on-americas-summer-of-heat-floods-and-climate-change-welcome-to-the-new-abnormal-190636">summer of flooding</a>, beginning with rain falling on snow that turned the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">Yellowstone River</a> into a record-shattering torrent. St. Louis, Dallas, eastern Kentucky, southern Illinois and Death Valley were all hit with 1,000-year floods. Storms in the South knocked out <a href="https://theconversation.com/intense-heat-and-flooding-are-wreaking-havoc-on-power-and-water-systems-as-climate-change-batters-americas-aging-infrastructure-189761">Jackson, Mississippi’s fragile water supply</a> for weeks.</p>
<p>Climate models have consistently shown that <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-on-americas-summer-of-heat-floods-and-climate-change-welcome-to-the-new-abnormal-190636">extreme rainfall events will become more common</a> as the climate warms, wrote University of Dayton <a href="https://udayton.edu/directory/artssciences/geology/wu_shuang-ye.php">climate scientist Shuang-Ye Wu</a>.</p>
<p>Some of that is basic physics – warmer air increases the amount of moisture that the atmosphere can hold by about 7% per degree Celsius. Increased humidity can enhance latent heat in storms, increasing their intensity and leading to heavier rainfall, Wu explained.</p>
<iframe title="US billion-dollar disasters by year" aria-label="Stacked Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-RYI24" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RYI24/10/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="470" data-external="1"></iframe>
<p>Even though humans are becoming more adept at managing climate risks, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04917-5">research published in 2022</a> found that extreme flooding and droughts are still getting deadlier and more expensive, and the costs are likely to continue to rise.</p>
<p>“This past summer might just provide a glimpse of our near future as these extreme climate events become more frequent,” Wu wrote. “To say this is the new ‘normal,’ though, is misleading. It suggests that we have reached a new stable state, and that is far from the truth.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-on-americas-summer-of-heat-floods-and-climate-change-welcome-to-the-new-abnormal-190636">Looking back on America’s summer of heat, floods and climate change: Welcome to the new abnormal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was updated with NOAA’s release of global temperature data on Jan. 12, 2023. It is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A monster hurricane, destructive storms and a drought that disrupted businesses across the economy led the list of the year’s costliest disasters.
Stacy Morford, Environment + Climate Editor
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.