tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/intelligence-753/articlesIntelligence – The Conversation2024-03-20T13:59:13Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223032024-03-20T13:59:13Z2024-03-20T13:59:13ZConspiracy theorists seem to favour an intuitive thinking style – here’s why that’s important<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580680/original/file-20240308-26-fcuzuc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5982%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wrapped-mouth-forefinger-sign-conspiracy-1238620543">Ralf Geithe/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I have been researching the psychology of conspiracy beliefs for seven years now and people often ask me why people believe in them. This is not a simple question. </p>
<p>There <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12568">are many reasons</a> people might endorse conspiracy theories. Something that stands out to me, though, is how our thinking styles can influence the way we process information and therefore <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/11/11/207">how prone we can be</a> to conspiracy beliefs.</p>
<p>A preference for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/acp.2995">intuitive thinking</a>, over <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/acp.3790">analytical thinking styles</a> seems to be linked to endorsement of conspiracy theories. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/11/11/207">Intuitive thinking</a> is a thinking style reliant on immediate and unconscious judgments. It often follows gut feelings, whereas analytical thinking is about slower, more deliberate and detailed processing of information. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/intelligence-doesnt-make-you-immune-to-conspiracy-theories-its-more-about-thinking-style-220978">I’ve written before</a> about how we can develop a more effortful, analytical thinking style to reduce our predisposition to conspiracy beliefs. </p>
<p>Research has shown critical thinking skills have many life benefits. For example, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1871187116300384?casa_token=HdOYh26XhEgAAAAA:HYLmEBNeaggtWPqyvt94Mhhi4nNOvzPfji6tud3HPHB2Okhz4mEpzJ9HyX7Hmgal1jl8PkyJew">a study from 2017</a> found that people who scored higher in critical thinking skills reported fewer negative life events (for instance, getting a parking ticket or missing a flight). Critical thinking was a stronger predictor than intelligence for avoiding these types of events. It’s not clear why this is. </p>
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<img alt="Girl thinking with arms resting on a table, arrows in different directions above her head" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580683/original/file-20240308-26-xrwt5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580683/original/file-20240308-26-xrwt5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580683/original/file-20240308-26-xrwt5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580683/original/file-20240308-26-xrwt5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580683/original/file-20240308-26-xrwt5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580683/original/file-20240308-26-xrwt5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580683/original/file-20240308-26-xrwt5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Analytical thinking can make you less likely to believe in conspiracy theories.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/thinking-girl-solving-problem-135457706">Marijus Auruskevicius/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/11/11/207">intuitive thinking</a> has been linked to thinking errors. For example, intuitive thinking styles can lead to over-reliance on mental shortcuts, which can also increase susceptibility to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/acp.2995">conspiracy theories</a>. </p>
<p>This can lead to dangerous consequences. For example, greater intuitive thinking has been linked to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08870446.2019.1673894?casa_token=pJXUleitfAQAAAAA:mgqoHZ9oqgTvliAYLVRwbCJET1kDYFE6P3tOsN3jIJjnVvnZq-a1beoHacw67dqGgzZR6hm3KpmY">anti-vaccine conspiracy beliefs</a> and vaccine hesitancy.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/29/steve-jobs-and-albert-einstein-both-attributed-their-extraordinary-success-to-this-personality-trait.html">extremely successful people</a>, such as Albert Einstein and Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, argued the importance of using their intuition and attributed their achievements to intuitive thinking. </p>
<h2>The value of intuitive thinking</h2>
<p>One benefit of <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/MD-04-2017-0333/full/html">intuitive thinking</a> is that it takes little or no processing time, which allows us to make decisions and judgments quickly. And, in some circumstances, this is vital. </p>
<p>People working in <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/MD-04-2017-0333/full/html">crisis environments </a>(such as the fire service) report the need to use intuitive thinking styles. During crises, it can be unrealistic to consistently use analytical thinking. </p>
<p>Experienced crisis managers often rely on intuitive thinking in the first instance, as their default strategy, but as the task allows, draw on more analytical thinking later on. Critical and intuitive thinking styles can be used in tandem. </p>
<p>What is important also is that this type of intuition develops through years of experience, which can produce <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/MD-04-2017-0333/full/html">expert intuition</a>. </p>
<p>Intuition can be crucial in other areas too. <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01420/full">Creativity</a> is often seen as a benefit of intuitive thinking styles. A review <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01420/full">conducted in 2016</a> of research into idea generation found that creativity is positively linked to intuitive thinking. </p>
<p>Although creativity is difficult to define, it can be thought of as similar to problem solving, where information is used to reach a goal, in a new or unexpected way. </p>
<p>However, it is also important to note that the 2016 review found that combining intuitive and analytical thinking styles was best for idea evaluation. </p>
<h2>What is the solution?</h2>
<p>Now, research often focuses on developing ways to improve analytical thinking in order to reduce endorsement of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0010027714001632?casa_token=EczBVWzrbWsAAAAA:Hq12hyS1txB3Ia_eM5yCVuReXqoVyGafhz2CTrq5U2JkTDsJs7Wl-LKm7Op_H3JVXWF9K5YQLQ">dangerous conspiracy theories</a> or reduce <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fstl0000188">thinking errors and misconceptions</a>. </p>
<p>However, we often consider analytic and intuitive thinking styles as an either-or, and when making decisions or judgments we must choose one over the other. However, a 2015 <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/bdm.1903">meta-analysis</a> (where data from multiple studies are combined and analysed) of 50 years of cognitive style research found evidence that these thinking styles could happen at the same time. </p>
<p>Rather than two opposing ends of a spectrum, they are separate constructs, meaning that these thinking styles can happen together. Research in decision-making also suggests that <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01088/full">thinking style is flexible</a> and the best decisions are made when the thinking style a person uses aligns with the situation at hand. </p>
<p>Some situations are more suited to analytical thinking styles (such as number tasks) while some are more suited to using intuition (such as understanding facial expressions). An adaptive decision-maker is skilled in using both thinking styles.</p>
<p>So perhaps one way to reduce susceptibility to conspiracy theories is improving adaptive decision-making. <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258985">My 2021 study</a> found that when people were confronted with the misconceptions they had previously made, overestimating the extent to which others endorse anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, they re-evaluated their decisions. This could suggest that thinking styles can depend on the situation and information at hand. </p>
<p>Although in many situations <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1871187116300384?casa_token=HdOYh26XhEgAAAAA:HYLmEBNeaggtWPqyvt94Mhhi4nNOvzPfji6tud3HPHB2Okhz4mEpzJ9HyX7Hmgal1jl8PkyJew">analytical thinking is better</a>, we shouldn’t dismiss the intuitive thinking style conspiracy theorists seem to favour as unworkable or inflexible. The answer could lie in understanding both thinking styles and being able to adjust our thinking styles when needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darel Cookson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The pros and pitfalls of this type of thinkingDarel Cookson, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2242162024-02-28T22:42:24Z2024-02-28T22:42:24ZMounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain, including with significant drops in IQ scores<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577796/original/file-20240226-16-yg36tj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C4985%2C3585&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Research shows that even mild COVID-19 can lead to the equivalent of seven years of brain aging.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/brain-fog-conceptual-illustration-royalty-free-illustration/1740384064?phrase=brain+fog&adppopup=true">Victor Habbick Visions/Science Photo Library via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From the very early days of the pandemic, <a href="https://www.everydayhealth.com/emotional-health/brain-fog/guide/">brain fog</a> <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/what-is-covid-19-brain-fog-and-how-can-you-clear-it-2021030822076">emerged as a significant health condition</a> that many experience after COVID-19. </p>
<p>Brain fog is a colloquial term that describes a state of mental sluggishness or lack of clarity and haziness that makes it difficult to concentrate, remember things and think clearly.</p>
<p>Fast-forward four years and there is now abundant evidence that being infected with SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-02001-z">can affect brain health in many ways</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to brain fog, COVID-19 can lead to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02521-2">an array of problems</a>, including headaches, seizure disorders, strokes, sleep problems, and tingling and paralysis of the nerves, as well as <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj-2021-068993">several mental health disorders</a>. </p>
<p>A large and growing body of evidence amassed throughout the pandemic details the many ways that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl0867">COVID-19 leaves an indelible mark</a> on the brain. But the specific pathways by which the virus does so are still being elucidated, and curative treatments are nonexistent.</p>
<p>Now, two new studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine shed further light on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMe2400189">profound toll of COVID-19 on cognitive health</a>. </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DtuRVcUAAAAJ">physician scientist</a>, and I have been devoted to studying <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html">long COVID</a> since early patient reports about this condition – even before the term “long COVID” was coined. I have testified before the U.S. Senate as <a href="https://www.help.senate.gov/hearings/addressing-long-covid-advancing-research-and-improving-patient-care">an expert witness on long COVID</a> and have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=search_authors&hl=en&mauthors=label:long_covid">published extensively</a> on this topic.</p>
<h2>How COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain</h2>
<p>Here are some of the most important studies to date documenting how COVID-19 affects brain health: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Large epidemiological analyses showed that people who had COVID-19 were at an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-02001-z">increased risk of cognitive deficits</a>, such as memory problems.</p></li>
<li><p>Imaging studies done in people before and after their COVID-19 infections show <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04569-5">shrinkage of brain volume</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-mild-cases-of-covid-19-can-leave-a-mark-on-the-brain-such-as-reductions-in-gray-matter-a-neuroscientist-explains-emerging-research-178499">altered brain structure after infection</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>A study of people with mild to moderate COVID-19 showed significant prolonged inflammation of the brain and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2217232120">changes that are commensurate with seven years of brain aging</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>Severe COVID-19 that requires hospitalization or intensive care may result in cognitive deficits and other brain damage that are <a href="https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3818580/v1">equivalent to 20 years of aging</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>Laboratory experiments in human and mouse brain <a href="https://hsci.harvard.edu/organoids">organoids</a> designed to emulate changes in the human brain showed that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg2248">fusion of brain cells</a>. This effectively short-circuits brain electrical activity and compromises function. </p></li>
<li><p>Autopsy studies of people who had severe COVID-19 but died months later from other causes showed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05542-y">the virus was still present in brain tissue</a>. This provides evidence that contrary to its name, SARS-CoV-2 is not only a respiratory virus, but it can also enter the brain in some individuals. But whether the persistence of the virus in brain tissue is driving some of the brain problems seen in people who have had COVID-19 is not yet clear.</p></li>
<li><p>Studies show that even when the virus is mild and exclusively confined to the lungs, it can still provoke inflammation in the brain and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2022.06.008">impair brain cells’ ability to regenerate</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>COVID-19 can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41593-024-01576-9">disrupt the blood brain barrier</a>, the shield that protects the nervous system – which is the control and command center of our bodies – making it “leaky.” Studies using imaging to assess the brains of people hospitalized with COVID-19 showed disrupted or leaky blood brain barriers in those who experienced brain fog.</p></li>
<li><p>A large preliminary analysis pooling together data from 11 studies encompassing almost 1 million people with COVID-19 and more than 6 million uninfected individuals showed that COVID-19 <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4716751">increased the risk of development of new-onset dementia</a> in people older than 60 years of age.</p></li>
</ul>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Autopsies have revealed devastating damage in the brains of people who died with COVID-19.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Drops in IQ</h2>
<p>Most recently, a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2311330">assessed cognitive abilities</a> such as memory, planning and spatial reasoning in nearly 113,000 people who had previously had COVID-19. The researchers found that those who had been infected had significant deficits in memory and executive task performance. </p>
<p>This decline was evident among those infected in the early phase of the pandemic and <a href="https://theconversation.com/delta-variant-makes-it-even-more-important-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-even-if-youve-already-had-the-coronavirus-164203">those infected when the delta</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-omicron-the-new-coronavirus-variant-of-concern-be-more-contagious-than-delta-a-virus-evolution-expert-explains-what-researchers-know-and-what-they-dont-169020">omicron variants</a> were dominant. These findings show that the risk of cognitive decline did not abate as the pandemic virus evolved from the ancestral strain to omicron.</p>
<p>In the same study, those who had mild and resolved COVID-19 showed cognitive decline equivalent to a three-point loss of IQ. In comparison, those with unresolved persistent symptoms, such as people with persistent shortness of breath or fatigue, had a six-point loss in IQ. Those who had been admitted to the intensive care unit for COVID-19 had a nine-point loss in IQ. Reinfection with the virus contributed an additional two-point loss in IQ, as compared with no reinfection.</p>
<p>Generally the average IQ is about 100. An IQ above 130 indicates a highly gifted individual, while an IQ below 70 generally indicates a level of intellectual disability that may require significant societal support.</p>
<p>To put the finding of the New England Journal of Medicine study into perspective, I estimate that a three-point downward shift in IQ would increase the number of U.S. adults with an IQ less than 70 from 4.7 million to 7.5 million – an increase of 2.8 million adults with a level of cognitive impairment that requires significant societal support.</p>
<p>Another study in the same issue of the New England Journal of Medicine involved more than 100,000 Norwegians between March 2020 and April 2023. It <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2311200">documented worse memory function</a> at several time points up to 36 months following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. </p>
<h2>Parsing the implications</h2>
<p>Taken together, these studies show that COVID-19 poses a serious risk to brain health, even in mild cases, and the effects are now being revealed at the population level. </p>
<p>A recent analysis of the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps.html">U.S. Current Population Survey</a> showed that after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/13/upshot/long-covid-disability.html">additional 1 million working-age Americans</a> reported having “serious difficulty” remembering, concentrating or making decisions than at any time in the preceding 15 years. Most disconcertingly, this was mostly driven by younger adults between the ages of 18 to 44. </p>
<p>Data from the European Union shows a similar trend – in 2022, 15% of people in the EU <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240129-1">reported memory and concentration issues</a>.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, it will be critical to identify who is most at risk. A better understanding is also needed of how these trends might affect the educational attainment of children and young adults and the economic productivity of working-age adults. And the extent to which these shifts will influence the epidemiology of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease is also not clear. </p>
<p>The growing body of research now confirms that COVID-19 should be considered a virus with a significant impact on the brain. The implications are far-reaching, from individuals experiencing cognitive struggles to the potential impact on populations and the economy. </p>
<p>Lifting the fog on the true causes behind these cognitive impairments, including brain fog, will require years if not decades of concerted efforts by researchers across the globe. And unfortunately, nearly everyone is a test case in this unprecedented global undertaking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224216/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ziyad Al-Aly receives funding from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. </span></em></p>Two new high-profile studies add to the increasingly worrisome picture of how even mild cases of COVID-19 can have detrimental effects on brain health.Ziyad Al-Aly, Chief of Research and Development, VA St. Louis Health Care System. Clinical Epidemiologist, Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235702024-02-23T12:57:13Z2024-02-23T12:57:13ZIQ tests: the danger of reading too much into them – and the crucial cognitive skills they don’t measure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576998/original/file-20240221-30-c7urzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=56%2C28%2C6190%2C4139&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/female-pupil-desk-taking-school-exam-541632589">SpeedKingz/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people object to intelligence tests. Some say IQ test scores are too often abused. They says it’s unfair that when children “fail” these tests it can mean they receive a worse secondary education than their more successful peers – sentencing them to a lifetime of disadvantage.</p>
<p>Some object to IQ tests for quite personal reasons and remember how stressed they were by sitting a test. Many doubt their result was a fair reflection of their future potential. But how useful are IQ tests really – and what skills and qualities do they miss?</p>
<p>More than 30 years ago, I discovered a <a href="https://homepages.abdn.ac.uk/j.crawford/pages/dept/pdfs/Intelligence_2000_Stability_IQ.pdf">half-forgotten, unique archive</a> of more than 89,000 IQ-type tests from 1932. This comprised a near-complete national sample of Scottish children born in 1921 who – at the time – would have been about 76 years old.</p>
<p>My aim was simple: to find local people to match with the archive and compare their current mental ability with their test result from 1932. A picture <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.322.7290.819">quickly emerged</a> linking lower IQ scores with earlier than expected age at death and earlier onset dementia.</p>
<p>The second world war yielded some strong unexpected anomalies. Young men with higher childhood IQ scores more often died on active service. Girls with higher scores more often moved away from the area.</p>
<p>I cycled around Aberdeen to learn more about its social history, becoming familiar with the primary schools where the children had sat their tests in 1932. Average IQ scores often differed substantially between schools. Those pupils attending schools in overcrowded districts tended to perform less well on the test.</p>
<p>Our later research showed that people with higher IQ were engaging in <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/363/bmj.k4925">more intellectually stimulating activities</a>, such as reading complex novels or learning musical instruments. But we can’t know whether having a high IQ leads people to seek out such activities or whether intellectually curious people develop higher IQ because they engage in cognitively complex tasks throughout life.</p>
<p>And that’s an important question. People from poorer backgrounds, such as the disadvantaged neighbourhoods in the city of Aberdeen, may not have the opportunity to pursue intellectual interests due to a lack of time and resources.</p>
<p>To better inform my work, I sought out local residents with long experience of teaching in Aberdeen. Their views were echoed by current workers in public health and psychology.</p>
<p>Teachers warned me not to forget that IQ tests have been used over the years to advance “<a href="https://via.library.depaul.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1270&context=law-review">scientific racism”</a> and that they feared that before too long, right-wing advocates of IQ testing would want to use these rediscovered Scottish data to search for the genetic basis of intelligence. Alarmed and now forewarned, I looked back at the reasons for undertaking the 1932 survey of the mental ability of Scottish schoolchildren. </p>
<p>The survey was funded by the Eugenics Society (eugenics is the science of improving the human race through the selection of “good” hereditary traits) with some help from the Rockefeller Foundation. Their shared priority was to show a link between large family size and below average mental ability. </p>
<p>At the time, this negative relationship between a mothers’ IQ and having children was easy to show. But post-1945 educational reforms, which led to more girls completing higher education, produced much more complex relationships between maternal IQ, educational achievements, age at first childbirth and lifetime fertility. </p>
<p>This fed into contemporary public concerns that the average mental ability of the general population was lowered by the loss of so many young men of presumed above average ability during the first world war war. Newspapers argued that schoolboys would need to be assessed and selected to better educate those most likely to benefit. </p>
<p>This only goes to show that while IQ tests can tell us something about academic success or dementia risk, they miss a lot of a nuance. There’s no denying they have long been used for murky reasons – often as an excuse to direct less funding to certain types of school, thereby creating a two-tier system. </p>
<p>The majority of children, those who do not take or pass IQ-style entrance exams to private or grammar schools, will have many qualities not measured on an IQ test. They may also just be late developers.</p>
<h2>What IQ tests don’t measure</h2>
<p>So what do IQ tests miss? Research suggests that IQ scores <a href="https://theconversation.com/iq-tests-are-humans-getting-smarter-158837">rose by about 3 points per decade</a> over much of the 20th century, but <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2012-26835-000">may have dropped</a> over the past 30 years or so.</p>
<p>Some experts argue this reflects changes in the school curriculum or maybe just the complexity of modern life. The acquisition of “content knowledge” (reading and memorising) once formed a cornerstone of public examinations and is related to IQ test performance. </p>
<p>We know for example that working memory <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608002000493">is related to</a> IQ test performance. But research has since uncovered that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01641.x">self-discipline is actually better predictor</a> of exam results than IQ.</p>
<p>Nowadays, children in the west are taught collective scientific problem-solving, combined with interpersonal skills and teamwork, which requires less memorisation (rote learning). This may actually make students less likely to score highly on IQ tests, even though these methods are helping humanity as a whole get smarter. Knowledge keeps growing, often as a result of giant research collaborations. </p>
<p>This type of “procedural learning” leads to mature self-awareness, emotional stability, recognition of the thoughts and feelings of others and an understanding of an individual’s impact on the performance of a group. Critically, a lack of these skills can hinder rational thinking. Research shows that when we ignore or fail to understand our feelings, <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/31984/#:%7E:text=We%20conclude%20that%20emotions%20and,for%20trader%20behavior%20and%20performance.">we are more easily manipulated by them</a>.</p>
<p>High IQ doesn’t necessarily protect against bias or error either. In fact, research shows that people with high IQ can be <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/review-the-intelligence-trap-why-smart-people-do-stupid-things-and-how-to-make-wiser-decisions-by-david-robson-impressive-and-readable-tgr72mshs/">particularly vulnerable to mistakes</a> such as spotting patterns even when there aren’t any, or they are irrelevant. </p>
<p>This may lead to confirmation bias and difficulty giving up on an idea, solution or project even when it is no longer working. This can also get in the way of rational reasoning. But such weaknesses are missed by IQ testing.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Image of Albert Einstein." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577001/original/file-20240221-30-nfj86z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577001/original/file-20240221-30-nfj86z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577001/original/file-20240221-30-nfj86z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577001/original/file-20240221-30-nfj86z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577001/original/file-20240221-30-nfj86z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577001/original/file-20240221-30-nfj86z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577001/original/file-20240221-30-nfj86z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Einstein valued creativity and intuition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Many great leaps in human ingenuity were driven by creativity, collaboration, competition, intuition or curiosity rather than just individual IQ. Take Albert Einstein, who is often hailed as a genius. </p>
<p>He never took an IQ test, but people are constantly <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/parenting/moments/5-genius-kids-who-have-an-iq-score-higher-than-albert-einstein/photostory/99929937.cms">speculating about his IQ</a>. Yet he <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/08/albert-einstein-quotes-inspiring-clever-funny-famous/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20important%20thing%20is%20not,of%20this%20mystery%20every%20day.%E2%80%9D">often credited curiosity and intuition</a> as the core driving forces of scientific success – and these are not qualities measured by an IQ test.</p>
<p>The ethos of a modern school is rightly not driven by a preference to educate only those children who on selection meet a minimum standard on a mental test. Schools acknowledge that educational outcomes are not determined solely by any innate ability but are equally affected by all prior experiences that affect emotional competences, motivation, intellectual curiosity, insightfulness and intuitive reasoning. </p>
<p>When local participants in the 1932 survey were interviewed in late life, they spoke warmly of their schooldays – particularly about friendships. They rarely mentioned their education though. The learning of content knowledge, with threats of physical punishments, simply weren’t well regarded. Some remembered sitting the IQ test in 1932 and were pleased most schools no longer test children that way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223570/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lawrence Whalley received funding from Scottish Government, Henry Smith Charity, BBSRC, MRC, Alzheimer's Research Trust, The Wellcome Trust.</span></em></p>The majority of children who do not take or pass IQ-style entrance exams to private- or grammar schools, will have many qualities not measured on an IQ test. They may also just be late developers.Lawrence Whalley, Emeritus Professor of Mental Health, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233112024-02-13T19:06:47Z2024-02-13T19:06:47ZAI tools produce dazzling results – but do they really have ‘intelligence’?<p>Sam Altman, chief executive of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, is reportedly trying to find <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-dollars-to-reshape-business-of-chips-and-ai-89ab3db0">up to US$7 trillion</a> of investment to manufacture the enormous volumes of computer chips he believes the world needs to run artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Altman also recently said <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-ceo-altman-says-davos-future-ai-depends-energy-breakthrough-2024-01-16/">the world will need more energy</a> in the AI-saturated future he envisions – so much more that some kind of technological breakthrough like nuclear fusion may be required.</p>
<p>Altman clearly has big plans for his company’s technology, but is the future of AI really this rosy? As a long-time “artificial intelligence” researcher, I have my doubts.</p>
<p>Today’s AI systems – particularly generative AI tools such as ChatGPT – are not truly intelligent. What’s more, there is no evidence they can become so without fundamental changes to the way they work.</p>
<h2>What is AI?</h2>
<p>One definition of AI is a computer system that can “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/artificial-intelligence">perform tasks commonly associated with intelligent beings</a>”. </p>
<p>This definition, like many others, is a little blurry: should we call spreadsheets AI, as they can carry out calculations that once would have been a high-level human task? How about factory robots, which have not only replaced humans but in many instances surpassed us in their ability to perform complex and delicate tasks?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-everything-we-call-ai-is-actually-artificial-intelligence-heres-what-you-need-to-know-196732">Not everything we call AI is actually 'artificial intelligence'. Here's what you need to know</a>
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<p>While spreadsheets and robots can indeed do things that were once the domain of humans, they do so by following an algorithm – a process or set of rules for approaching a task and working through it.</p>
<p>One thing we can say is that there is no such thing as “an AI” in the sense of a system that can perform a range of intelligent actions in the way a human would. Rather, there are many different AI technologies that can do quite different things.</p>
<h2>Making decisions vs generating outputs</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most important distinction is between “discriminative AI” and “generative AI”. </p>
<p>Discriminative AI helps with making decisions, such as whether a bank should give a loan to a small business, or whether a doctor diagnoses a patient with disease X or disease Y. AI technologies of this kind have existed for decades, and bigger and better ones are <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90927119/why-discriminative-ai-will-continue-to-dominate-enterprise-ai-adoption-in-a-world-flooded-with-discussions-on-generative-ai">emerging all the time</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-is-everywhere-including-countless-applications-youve-likely-never-heard-of-222985">AI is everywhere – including countless applications you've likely never heard of</a>
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<p>Generative AI systems, on the other hand – ChatGPT, Midjourney and their relatives – generate outputs in response to inputs: in other words, they make things up. In essence, they have been exposed to billions of data points (such as sentences) and use this to guess a likely response to a prompt. The response may often be “true”, depending on the source data, but there are no guarantees. </p>
<p>For generative AI, there is no difference between a “hallucination” – a false response invented by the system – and a response a human would judge as true. This appears to be an inherent defect of the technology, which uses a kind of neural network called a transformer. </p>
<h2>AI, but not intelligent</h2>
<p>Another example shows how the goalposts of “AI” are constantly moving. In the 1980s, I worked on a computer system designed to provide expert medical advice on laboratory results. It was written up in the US research literature as <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0394.1986.tb00192.x">one of the first four</a> medical “expert systems” in clinical use, and in 1986 an Australian government report described it as the most successful expert system developed in Australia. </p>
<p>I was pretty proud of this. It was an AI landmark, and it performed a task that normally required highly trained medical specialists. However, the system wasn’t intelligent at all. It was really just a kind of look-up table which matched lab test results to high-level diagnostic and patient management advice. </p>
<p>There is now technology which makes it very easy to build such systems, so there are thousands of them in use around the world. (This technology, based on research by myself and colleagues, is provided by an Australian company called Beamtree.)</p>
<p>In doing a task done by highly trained specialists, they are certainly “AI”, but they are still not at all intelligent (although the more complex ones may have thousands and thousands of rules for looking up answers).</p>
<p>The transformer networks used in generative AI systems still run on sets of rules, though there may be millions or billions of them, and they cannot easily be explained in human terms. </p>
<h2>What is real intelligence?</h2>
<p>If algorithms can produce dazzling results of the kind we see from ChatGPT without being intelligent, what is real intelligence?</p>
<p>We might say intelligence is insight: the judgement that something is or is not a good idea. Think of Archimedes, leaping from his bath and shouting “Eureka” because he had had an insight into the principle of buoyancy.</p>
<p>Generative AI doesn’t have insight. ChatGPT can’t tell you if its answer to a question is better than Gemini’s. (Gemini, until recently known as Bard, is Google’s competitor to OpenAI’s GPT family of AI tools.)</p>
<p>Or to put it another way: generative AI might produce amazing pictures in the style of Monet, but if it were trained only on Renaissance art it would never invent Impressionism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="an Impressionist painting of water lilies on a pond." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575175/original/file-20240213-28-zm7k3i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Nympheas (Waterlilies)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://artsandculture.google.com/asset/0gEk3X6Bn40QKg">Claude Monet / Google Art Project</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Generative AI is extraordinary, and people will no doubt find widespread and very valuable uses for it. Already, it provides extremely useful tools for transforming and presenting (but not discovering) information, and tools for turning specifications into code are already in routine use. </p>
<p>These will get better and better: Google’s just-released Gemini, for example, appears to try to <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/12/07/google-launches-deepmind-ai-gemini-chatgpt-openai-factuality-hallucination/">minimise the hallucination problem</a>, by using search and then re-expressing the search results. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, as we become more familiar with generative AI systems, we will see more clearly that it is not truly intelligent; there is no insight. It is not magic, but a very clever magician’s trick: an algorithm that is the product of extraordinary human ingenuity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223311/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Compton was a founder of Pacific Knowledge Systems, later renamed Beamtree, but no longer has any involvement
with the company.</span></em></p>Existing AI systems learn patterns from very large piles of data – but they have no insight.Paul Compton, Emeritus professor in Computer Science and Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221652024-02-05T14:19:18Z2024-02-05T14:19:18ZSurveillance and the state: South Africa’s proposed new spying law is open for comment – an expert points out its flaws<p>In early 2021, the South African Constitutional Court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllowed=y">found</a> that the country’s <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/">State Security Agency</a>, through its signals intelligence agency, the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-06-21-00-spy-wars-south-africa-is-not-innocent/">National Communication Centre</a>, was conducting <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/827/how-bulk-interception-works">bulk interception of electronic signals</a> unlawfully. </p>
<p>Bulk interception <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/827/how-bulk-interception-works">involves</a> the surveillance of electronic signals, including communication signals and internet traffic, on a very large scale, and often on an untargeted basis. If intelligence agents misuse this capability, it can have a massive, negative impact on the privacy of innocent people. </p>
<p>The court found that there was no law authorising the practice of bulk surveillance and limiting its potential abuse. It ordered that the agency cease such surveillance until there was. </p>
<p>In November 2023, the South African presidency responded to the ruling by tabling a bill to, among other things, plug the gaps identified by the country’s highest court. The <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/B40-2023_General_Intelligence_Laws.pdf">General Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill</a> sets out how the surveillance centre, based in Pretoria, the capital city, should be regulated.</p>
<p>I have researched intelligence and surveillance for over a decade and also served on the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">2018 High Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency</a>. <a href="https://intelwatch.org.za/2023/11/17/briefing-note-general-intelligence-laws-amendment-bill-gilab/">In my view</a>, the bill lacks basic controls over how this highly invasive form of surveillance should be used. This compromises citizens’ privacy and increases the potential for the state to repeat previous abuses. I discuss some of these abuses below. </p>
<h2>The dangers</h2>
<p>Intelligence agencies use bulk interception to put large numbers of people, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/03/everyone-is-under-surveillance-now-says-whistleblower-edward-snowden">even whole populations</a>, under surveillance. This is regardless of whether they are suspected of serious crimes or threats to national security. Their intention is to obtain strategic intelligence about <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Signals-Intelligence/Overview/">longer term external threats</a> to a country’s security, and that may be difficult to obtain by other means. </p>
<p>Former United States National Security Agency contractor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistleblower-surveillance">Edward Snowden’s</a> leaks of classified intelligence documents showed how these capabilities had been used to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN25T3CJ/">spy on US citizens</a>. The leaks also showed that British intelligence <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/12/08/british-spying-tentacles-reach-across-africa-s-heads-of-states-and-business-leaders_5045668_3212.html">spied on African</a> trade negotiators, politicians and business people to give the UK government and its partners unfair trade advantages.</p>
<p>In the case of South Africa, around 2005, rogue agents in the erstwhile <a href="https://irp.fas.org/world/rsa/index.html">National Intelligence Agency</a> misused bulk interception to <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/igreport0.pdf">spy on</a> senior members of the ruling African National Congress, the opposition, business people and civil servants. This was despite the agency’s mandate being to focus on foreign threats. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-new-intelligence-bill-is-meant-to-stem-abuses-whats-good-and-bad-about-it-220473">South Africa's new intelligence bill is meant to stem abuses – what's good and bad about it</a>
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<p>These rogue agents were able to abuse bulk interception because there was no law controlling and limiting how these capabilities were to be used. A 2008 commission of inquiry, appointed by then-minister of intelligence <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/ronald-ronnie-kasrils">Ronnie Kasrils</a>, <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/Assets/Documents/PDFs/csrc-background-papers/Intelligence-In-a-Constitutional-Democracy.pdf">called</a> for this law to be enacted. The government refused to do so until it was forced to act by the Constitutional Court ruling. </p>
<p>The government <a href="https://www.anchoredinlaw.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Answering-Affidavit-DG-State-Security-Agency.pdf">justified</a> its refusal to act by claiming that the National Communication Centre was regulated adequately through the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act39of1994.pdf">National Strategic Intelligence Act</a>. The court rejected this argument because the act failed to address the regulation of bulk interception directly. </p>
<h2>What the Constitutional Court said</h2>
<p>The 2021 Constitutional Court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllowed=y">judgment</a> did not address whether bulk interception should ever be acceptable as a surveillance practice. However, it appeared to accept the <a href="https://www.anchoredinlaw.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Answering-Affidavit-DG-State-Security-Agency.pdf">agency’s argument</a> that it was an internationally accepted method of monitoring transnational signals. But the legitimacy of this practice is <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3115985-APPLICANTS-REPLY-to-GOVT-OBSERVATIONS-PDF.html">highly contested internationally</a>. That’s because this form of surveillance usually extends far beyond what is needed to protect national security.</p>
<p>The court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllow">indicated</a> that it would want to see a law authorising bulk surveillance that sets out “the nuts and bolts of the Centre’s functions”. The law would also need to spell out in</p>
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<p>clear, precise terms the manner, circumstances or duration of the collection, gathering, evaluation and analysis of domestic and foreign intelligence.</p>
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<p>The court would also be looking for detail on</p>
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<p>how these various types of intelligence must be captured, copied, stored, or distributed.</p>
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<h2>What the amendment bill says</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/B40-2023_General_Intelligence_Laws.pdf">amendment bill</a> provides for the proper establishment of the National Communication Centre and its functions. This includes the collection and analysis of intelligence from electronic signals, and information security or cryptography. A parliamentary <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee/335/">ad hoc committee</a> has set a <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/media-statement-ad-hoc-committee-general-intelligence-laws-amendment-bill-extends-deadline-written-submissions#:%7E:text=Unfortunately%2C%20the%20timeline%20to%20process,over%206%20000%20written%20submissions.">deadline</a> of 15 February 2024 for public comment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-agency-needs-speedy-reform-or-it-must-be-shut-down-200386">South Africa's intelligence agency needs speedy reform - or it must be shut down</a>
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<p>The bill says, in vague terms, that the centre shall gather, correlate, evaluate and analyse relevant intelligence to identify any threat or potential threat to national security. But it doesn’t provide any of the details the court said it would be looking for. This is a major weakness.</p>
<p>The bill has one strength, though. It states that the surveillance centre needs to seek the permission of a retired judge, assisted by two interception experts, before conducting bulk interception. The judge will be appointed by the president, and the experts by the minister in charge of intelligence. The position is <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/AboutUs">located in the presidency</a>.</p>
<p>However, it does not spell out the bases on which the judge will take decisions. The fact that the judge would be an executive appointment also raises doubts about his or her independence.</p>
<h2>Inadequate benchmarking</h2>
<p>The bill fails to incorporate international benchmarks on the regulation of strategic intelligence and bulk interception in a democracy. These require that a domestic legal framework provide what the European Court of Human Rights <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">has referred to</a> as “end-to-end” safeguards covering all stages of bulk interception.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-watchdog-is-failing-civil-society-how-to-restore-its-credibility-195121">South Africa's intelligence watchdog is failing civil society. How to restore its credibility</a>
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<p>The European Court <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">has stated</a> that a domestic legal framework should define</p>
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<li><p>the grounds on which bulk interception may be authorised</p></li>
<li><p>the circumstances</p></li>
<li><p>the procedures to be followed for granting authorisation </p></li>
<li><p>procedures for selecting, examining and using material obtained from intercepts</p></li>
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<p>The framework <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">should also set out</a> </p>
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<li><p>the precautions to be taken when communicating the material to other parties</p></li>
<li><p>limits on the duration of interception </p></li>
<li><p>procedures for the storage of intercepted material</p></li>
<li><p>the circumstances in which such material must be erased and destroyed </p></li>
<li><p>supervision procedures by an independent authority</p></li>
<li><p>compliance procedures for review of surveillance once it has been completed.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The bill does not meet these requirements. </p>
<p>Incorporating these details in regulations would not be adequate on its own, as the bill gives the intelligence minister too much power to set the ground rules for bulk interception. These rules are also unlikely to be subjected to the same level of public scrutiny as the bill. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zondo-commissions-report-on-south-africas-intelligence-agency-is-important-but-flawed-186582">Zondo Commission's report on South Africa's intelligence agency is important but flawed</a>
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<p>The fact that the presidency is attempting to get away with the most minimal regulation of bulk interception raises doubt about its <a href="https://www.stateofthenation.gov.za/assets/downloads/State%20Capture%20Commission%20Response.pdf">stated commitment</a> to intelligence reform to limit the scope for abuse, and parliament needs correct the bill’s clear deficiencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Duncan receives funding from the British Academy and is a director of the non-governmental organisation Intelwatch. </span></em></p>The fact that the presidency is attempting to get away with minimal regulation of bulk interception raises doubt about its commitment to ending intelligence abuse.Jane Duncan, Professor of Digital Society, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209782024-01-30T15:37:47Z2024-01-30T15:37:47ZIntelligence doesn’t make you immune to conspiracy theories – it’s more about thinking style<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571914/original/file-20240129-29-jer3n7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C31%2C5145%2C3414&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The QAnon conspiracy theory has many powerful supporters. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-united-kingdom-august-29-2020-1805067589">I T S/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the last two decades, and in particular over the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44159-022-00133-0">last five years</a>, there has been a growing scientific interest in conspiracy theories and people who believe in them. Although, some may think belief in such stories is linked to intelligence, research is beginning to show that how people think could be more important.</p>
<p>Scientists agree that having a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44159-022-00133-0">measure of skepticism</a> about official accounts of events is healthy and important, but conspiracy theorising can lead to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352250X22000823">dangerous consequences</a> for the individual and for society. </p>
<p>Some conspiracy theories, for example <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/53498434">the QAnon conspiracy</a>, can be considered a minority belief, <a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Globalism21_ConspiracyTheories_AllCountries.pdf">with a 2021 YouGov poll</a> showing that 8% of those polled in the UK endorsed this conspiracy theory. However, some beliefs are more widespread. A 2018 survey of people from around Europe found <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/23/study-shows-60-of-britons-believe-in-conspiracy-theories">60% of British participants</a> endorsed at least one conspiracy theory. So, who are the people who are more susceptible to conspiracy theorising? </p>
<p>There is a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44159-022-00133-0">dramatically growing</a> body of research endeavouring to understand this question. First, let’s re-examine those assumptions about who engages with conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>People with <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/article-abstract/2808358">high education levels</a>, such as doctors and nurses, have been reported to propagate conspiracy theories. So it’s not just about intelligence – education won’t necessarily make you immune. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-morbid-curiosity-can-lead-people-to-conspiracy-theories-214532">How morbid curiosity can lead people to conspiracy theories</a>
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<h2>Critical thinking</h2>
<p>Research shows that our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/11/11/207">thinking style</a> can be predictive of susceptibility to conspiracy theories. The <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/11/11/207">dual processing theory of cognitive style</a> suggests that we have two routes which we can use to process information. </p>
<p>One route is the fast, intuitive route which leans more on personal experiences and gut feelings. The other route is a slower, more analytical route which instead relies on elaborative and detailed processing of information.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man protesting alone wearing yellow shirt with graph chart and the word fake" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571915/original/file-20240129-23-sux9qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571915/original/file-20240129-23-sux9qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571915/original/file-20240129-23-sux9qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571915/original/file-20240129-23-sux9qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571915/original/file-20240129-23-sux9qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571915/original/file-20240129-23-sux9qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571915/original/file-20240129-23-sux9qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Conspiracy theory belief seems to be linked to thinking style.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hannover-germany-0805-conspiracy-theorist-demonstrating-1729104664">philippgehrke.de/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>What you tend to see is that people who are not necessarily smarter but who favour the more effortful, analytical thinking style are more resistant to conspiracy beliefs. For example, a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0010027714001632?casa_token=EczBVWzrbWsAAAAA:Hq12hyS1txB3Ia_eM5yCVuReXqoVyGafhz2CTrq5U2JkTDsJs7Wl-LKm7Op_H3JVXWF9K5YQLQ">British 2014 study</a> found that those who scored highly for questions such as “I enjoy problems that require hard thinking” were less likely to accept conspiracy beliefs. It also found those who were less likely to engage in effortful thinking styles and more likely to use intuitive thinking showed a higher belief in conspiracy theories. </p>
<p>Similarly, a 2022 study across 45 countries used a cognitive reflection test, which measured engagement in analytical thinking in three questions. It found that participants who engaged in the labour intensive thinking style were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886922001702">less likely to endorse</a> COVID 19 conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>Critical thinking is a valuable skill, particularly within education, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0010027714001632">has been shown</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-talk-to-someone-about-conspiracy-theories-in-five-simple-steps-197819">buffer susceptibility to</a> conspiracy beliefs. This is probably because this more arduous thinking style allows people time to identify inconsistencies in theories and look to additional resources to verify information.</p>
<h2>Thinking style is not the same as intelligence</h2>
<p>A 2021 <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886920305134">meta-analysis study</a> indicates that an intuitive thinking style is unrelated to intelligence. So, even really smart people could be susceptible to conspiracy beliefs – if they are more inclined to revert to faster, intuitive thinking styles. </p>
<p>Research shows that belief in conspiracy theories is predicted by cognitive biases that come from a reliance on mental shortcuts when processing information. First, conspiracy beliefs seem to be predicted by the flawed belief that <a href="http://www.ask-force.org/web/Discourse/Van-Prooijen-When-consequnce-size-predicts-belief-2014.pdf">big events must have big consequences</a>. </p>
<p>This is known in psychology as <a href="https://www.thebehavioralscientist.com/glossary/proportionality-bias">proportionality bias</a>. It is difficult to accept that events which have such world-changing consequences (for example, the death of a president or the COVID-19 outbreak) can really be caused by comparably “small” causes (for example, a lone gunman or a virus). This is how thinking styles reliant on gut feelings and intuition can lead people to endorse conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>Another example of intuitive thinking styles influencing conspiracy beliefs is the conjunction fallacy. A <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1984-03110-001">conjunction fallacy</a> is the erroneous belief that the likelihood of two independent events occurring together is higher than the probability of the events occurring alone. Have a try at the Linda Problem:</p>
<p><em>Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable?</em></p>
<p>a) Linda is a bank teller.</p>
<p>b) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.</p>
<p>The most probable is a) Linda is a bank teller as, statistically, the probably probability of one event occurring is always higher than the combination. However, research shows that <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/acp.2995">higher conjunction fallacy errors</a> are associated with stronger conspiracy beliefs. So people prone to conspiratorial thinking would be more likely to say b.</p>
<p>Exposure to conspiracy beliefs have also <a href="https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjop.12018?casa_token=r4JDrnxTCu8AAAAA%3A-Pcye9myJ9Wo0npNCXco7jIsoT-_JUrv1K07NwRqZF8_a15-qg6nCx-jKKzaQ-SHaMtEJJUrTyNzAy8w">consistently been shown</a> to increase people’s susceptibility to them, even if they don’t realise that they have had a <a href="https://kar.kent.ac.uk/18928/">change in belief</a>. </p>
<p>It may sound concerning that anyone could be susceptible to conspiracy beliefs. However, these studies are helping researchers find interventions which can increase analytical and critical thinking styles and so buffer against susceptibility to such beliefs. A <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0280902&s=03">2023 review</a> of 25 different studies found these types of interventions were a promising tool to tackle the dangerous consequences of conspiracy beliefs. </p>
<p>The more we understand about the psychology behind conspiracy theories, the better equipped we are to tackle them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220978/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darel Cookson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Being smart won’t protect you from falling down conspiracy rabbit holes.Darel Cookson, Lecturer in Psychology, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204732024-01-11T15:54:30Z2024-01-11T15:54:30ZSouth Africa’s new intelligence bill is meant to stem abuses – what’s good and bad about it<p>When South Africa became a constitutional democracy <a href="https://www.britannica.com/question/How-did-apartheid-end">in 1994</a>, it replaced its apartheid-era intelligence apparatus with a new one aimed at serving the country’s new democratic dispensation. However, the regime of former president Jacob Zuma, 2009-2018, deviated from this path. It <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">abused</a> the intelligence services to serve his political and allegdly corrupt ends. Now the country is taking steps to remedy the situation.</p>
<p>In November 2023, the presidency published the <a href="https://pmg.org.za/bill/1197/">General Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill</a>. It proposes overhauling the civilian intelligence agency, the <a href="http://www.ssa.gov.za/">State Security Agency</a>, to address the <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">abuses</a>.</p>
<p>The bill is extremely broad in scope. It intends to amend 12 laws – including the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act39of1994.pdf">main</a> <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/a65-020.pdf">intelligence</a> <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/120224oversight_0.PDF">laws</a> of the democratic era. </p>
<p>Parliament has set itself a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/38063/">1 March deadline</a> to complete work on the bill before it dissolves for the national election expected between <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/elections/whats-new-in-the-2024-elections-electoral-amendment-act">May and August</a>. </p>
<p>I have researched intelligence and surveillance for over a decade and also served on the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">2018 High Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency</a>.</p>
<p>In my view, some of the proposals in the bill risk replacing the old abuses with new ones. The bill seeks to broaden intelligence powers drastically but fails to address <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/38207/">longstanding weaknesses in their oversight</a>. </p>
<h2>Ending abuse</h2>
<p>The bill is meant to respond to major criticisms of the State Security Agency during Zuma’s presidency. The critics include the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">High Level Review Panel</a> and the <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">Commission of Inquiry into State Capture</a>. </p>
<p>The main criticism of the panel appointed by Zuma’s successor Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 was that under Zuma, the executive <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">repurposed</a> the agency to keep him in power, along with his supporters and others dependent on his patronage. In 2009, he merged the erstwhile domestic intelligence agency, the National Intelligence Agency, and the foreign agency, the <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/AboutUs/Branches">South African Secret Service</a>, by <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/security/national-security/ssa-takes-shape-legislation-to-follow/">presidential proclamation</a>, to centralise intelligence. This made it easier for his regime to control intelligence to achieve nefarious ends. The state capture commission made <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">similar findings</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-surveillance-law-is-changing-but-citizens-privacy-is-still-at-risk-214508">South Africa’s surveillance law is changing but citizens’ privacy is still at risk</a>
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<p>The most important proposal in the bill is to abolish the <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/42/state-security-agency-ssa">State Security Agency</a>. It is to be replaced by two separate agencies: one for foreign intelligence, and the other for domestic. The proposed new South African Intelligence Service (foreign) and the South African Intelligence Agency (domestic) will have separate mandates.</p>
<p>Abolishing the State Security Agency would be an important step towards accountability, as set out in the 1994 <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/white-papers/intelligence-white-paper-01-jan-1995#:%7E:text=The%20goal%20of%20this%20White,relevant%2C%20credible%20and%20reliable%20intelligence.">White Paper on Intelligence</a>. </p>
<p>The proposed names of the envisioned new agencies have symbolic importance. They suggest a shift away from a focus on state security, or protection of those in positions of power. Instead, it puts the focus back on human security. This is the protection of broader society, as <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/white-papers/intelligence-white-paper-01-jan-1995#:%7E:text=The%20goal%20of%20this%20White,relevant%2C%20credible%20and%20reliable%20intelligence.">required</a> by the 1994 White Paper.</p>
<h2>The dangers of over-broad definitions</h2>
<p>However, the new mandates given to the two new agencies, and the definitions they rely on, are so broad that abuse of their powerful spying capabilities is almost a foregone conclusion.</p>
<p>The bill says the new agencies will be responsible for collecting and analysing intelligence relating to threats or potential threats to national security in accordance with <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/chp11.html#:%7E:text=198.,to%20seek%20a%20better%20life.">the constitution</a>.</p>
<p>The bill defines national security as</p>
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<p>the capabilities, measures and activities of the state to pursue or advance any threat, any potential threat, any opportunity, any potential opportunity or the security of the Republic and its people …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This definition is extremely expansive. It allows the intelligence services to undertake any activity that could advance South Africa’s interests. This is regardless of whether there are actual national security threats. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-watchdog-is-failing-civil-society-how-to-restore-its-credibility-195121">South Africa's intelligence watchdog is failing civil society. How to restore its credibility</a>
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<p>This creates the potential for overlap with the mandates of other state entities. However, unlike these, the intelligence agencies will be able to work secretly, using their extremely invasive <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-06-21-00-spy-wars-south-africa-is-not-innocent/">surveillance</a> <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-28-the-awful-state-of-lawful-interception-in-sa-part-two-surveillance-technology-thats-above-the-law/">capabilities</a>.</p>
<p>Such capabilities should only be used in exceptional circumstances when the country is under legitimate threat. To normalise their use in everyday government functions threatens democracy.</p>
<p>Intelligence overreach has happened elsewhere. Governments are increasingly requiring intelligence agencies to ensure that policymakers enjoy <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/national-security-surveillance-in-southern-africa-9780755640225/">decision advantages</a> in a range of areas. These include bolstering trade advantages over other countries.</p>
<p>For example, whistleblower <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistleblower-surveillance">Edward Snowden’s</a> leaks of classified US and UK intelligence documents showed how the countries misused broad interpretations of national security to engage in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/25907502">industrial espionage</a>.</p>
<p>The UK government used its powerful <a href="https://www.gchq.gov.uk/">signals intelligence capability</a> to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/12/08/british-spying-tentacles-reach-across-africa-s-heads-of-states-and-business-leaders_5045668_3212.html">spy on</a> African politicians, diplomats and business people during trade negotiations. These abuses mean intelligence mandates should be narrowed and state intelligence power should be reduced.</p>
<h2>Human security definition of national security</h2>
<p>The State Security Agency used its presentation to parliament on the bill to seek broad mandates. Its <a href="https://pmg.org.za/files/231129Presentation_of_GILAB_Final.pptx">presentation</a> says it seeks to give effect to the national security principles in <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/chp11.html#:%7E:text=198.,to%20seek%20a%20better%20life.">section 198</a> of the constitution. The section states that:</p>
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<p>national security must reflect the resolve of South Africans, as individuals and as a nation, to live as equals, to live in peace and harmony, to be free from fear and want and to seek a better life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This principle is actually based on the human security definition of national security. The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ga/">United Nations General Assembly</a> calls this freedom from fear and freedom from want. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/surveillance-laws-are-failing-to-protect-privacy-rights-what-we-found-in-six-african-countries-170373">Surveillance laws are failing to protect privacy rights: what we found in six African countries</a>
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<p>In its broadest sense, human security protects individuals from a wide range of threats and addresses their underlying drivers. These include <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231962570_Critical_Human_Security_Studies">poverty, underdevelopment and deprivation</a>. State security, on the other hand, is about protecting the state from threats. </p>
<p>If social issues are <a href="https://www.libraryofsocialscience.com/assets/pdf/Waever-Securitization.pdf">securitised</a> – or treated as national security issues requiring intervention by the state’s security services – it becomes difficult to distinguish the work of these agencies from the social welfare arms of the state.</p>
<h2>What needs to happen</h2>
<p>International relations scholar Neil MacFarlane and political scientist Yuen Foong Khong <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000147585">suggested</a> in 2006 that it was possible to address this conundrum by maintaining the focus on broader society as the entity that needs protection, rather than the state. </p>
<p>Legislators need to take a <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000147585">similar approach</a> when debating the bill. They should narrow the focus of the envisaged two new agencies to domestic and foreign threats of organised violence against society, such as genocide or terrorism. By doing so, they would still be recognising the best of what human security has to offer as an intelligence doctrine, while providing a much more appropriate focus for civilian intelligence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Duncan receives funding from the British Academy and is a director of Intelwatch, a non-governmental organisation devoted to strengthening democratic oversight of state and private intelligence. </span></em></p>The bill seeks greater intelligence powers but neglects oversight.Jane Duncan, Professor of Digital Society, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196692023-12-13T19:01:44Z2023-12-13T19:01:44ZHuman intelligence: how cognitive circuitry, rather than brain size, drove its evolution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565513/original/file-20231213-20-grbqn0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C33%2C2779%2C1837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">wikipedia/Foley</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s one of the great paradoxes of evolution. Humans have demonstrated that having <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-humans-have-such-large-brains-our-study-suggests-ecology-was-the-driving-force-96873">large brains</a> are key to our evolutionary success, and yet such brains are extremely rare in other animals. Most get by on tiny brains, and don’t seem to miss the extra brain cells (neurons). </p>
<p>Why? The answer that most biologists have settled on is that large brains are costly in terms of the energy they require to run. And, given the way natural selection works, the benefits <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9234964/">simply don’t exceed the costs</a>. </p>
<p>But is it just a matter of size? Does the way our brains are laid out also affect their costs? A new study, <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi7632">published in Science Advances</a>, has produced some intriguing answers. </p>
<p>All our organs have running costs, but <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2744104">some are cheap and others expensive</a>. Bones, for example, are relatively cheap. Although they make up around 15% of your weight, they only use 5% of your metabolism. Brains are at the other end of the spectrum, and at about 2% of typical human body weight, running them uses around 20% of our metabolism. And this without doing any conscious thinking – it even happens when we’re asleep.</p>
<p>For most animals, the benefits of serious thinking are simply not worth it. But for some reason – the greatest puzzle in human evolution, perhaps – humans found ways to overcome the costs of having a larger brain and reap the benefits.</p>
<p>All this is fairly well known, but there is a more tantalising question. Certainly humans have to bear the greater costs of our brains because they are so large, but are there different costs because of the special nature of our cognition? Does thinking, speaking, being self-conscious or doing sums cost more than typical day-to-day animal activities?</p>
<p>It’s not an easy question to answer, but the team behind the new study, led by Valentin Riedl of the Technical University of Munich, Germany, have risen to the challenge. </p>
<p>The authors had a number of known points to start with. The basic design and structure of neurons is much the same across the brain – and across species. The neuronal density is also the same for humans and other primates, so these are unlikely to be the driver of intelligence. If they were, some animals with large brains such as orcas and elephants would likely be smarter than humans.</p>
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<img alt="Elephant and woman in village Surin Thailand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Elephants have larger brains than humans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">venusvi/Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>They also knew that across human evolution, the neocortex – the largest part of the outermost layer of the brain, known as cerebral cortex – has expanded at a greater rate than other parts. This region, which involves the prefrontal cortex, is responsible for tasks involving attention, thought, planning, perception and episodic memory – all needed for higher cognitive function.</p>
<p>These two observations led them to investigate whether there are different costs of signalling across different regions of the brain.</p>
<p>The team scanned the brains of 30 people using a technique that could simultaneously measure glucose metabolism (a measure of energy consumption) and the level of signalling across the cortex. They could then look at the correlation between these two elements and see whether different parts of the brain used different levels of energy – and if so how. </p>
<h2>Surprising findings</h2>
<p>Neurobiologists will surely ponder and explore the fine details of the results, but from an evolutionary point of view, they are thought-provoking. What they found is that the difference in energy consumption between different areas of the brain is big. Not all bits of the brain are equal, energetically speaking.</p>
<p>Not only that, but the parts of the human brain that have expanded most had higher costs than expected. The neocortex in fact demanded around 67% more energy than sensorimotor networks per gram of tissue. </p>
<p>This means that during the course of human evolution, not only did the metabolic costs of our brains go up as they became larger, but they did so at an accelerating rate as the neocortex expanded faster than the rest of the brain. </p>
<p>Why should that be the case? A neuron is a neuron, after all. The neocortex relates directly to higher cognitive function. </p>
<p>The signals sent across this area are mediated through brain chemicals such as serotonin, dopamine and noradrenaline (neuromodulators), which create circuits in the brain to help maintain a general level of excitement (in a neurological sense of the word meaning being awake, not having fun). These circuits, which regulate some brain areas more than others, control and modify the ability of neurons across the brain to communicate with each other.</p>
<p>In other words, they keep the brain active for memory storage and thinking – a generally higher level of cognitive activity. Not surprisingly, perhaps, the higher level of activity involved in our advanced cognition comes at a higher energetic cost.</p>
<p>Ultimately then, it seems the human brain evolved to such advanced levels of cognition not just because we have large brains, nor even just because certain areas of our brain grew disproportionately big, but because – at a cost – the connectivity improved.</p>
<p>Many animals with large brains, such as elephants and orcas, are highly intelligent. But it seems it is possible to have a large brain without developing the “right” circuitry for human-level cognition.</p>
<p>The results help us understand why larger brains are so rare. A larger brain can enable more complex cognition to evolve. It is not just a matter of scaling up brains and energy at the same rate though, but taking on additional costs.</p>
<p>This doesn’t really answer the ultimate question – how did humans manage to break through the brain-energy ceiling? As so often in evolution, the answer must lie in ecology, the ultimate source of energy. To grow and maintain a large brain – whatever social, cultural, technological or other things it is used for – <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.1991.0111">requires a dependable and high quality diet</a>.</p>
<p>To learn more, we need to explore the last million years, the period when our ancestors’ brains really expanded, to investigate this interface between energy expenditure and cognition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The human brain uses up 20% of the energy we consume.Robert Foley, Emeritus Professor of Human Evolution, University of CambridgeMarta Mirazon Lahr, Professor of Human Evolutionary Biology & Director of the Duckworth Collection, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193462023-12-07T17:28:17Z2023-12-07T17:28:17ZWhy Israel’s intelligence chiefs failed to listen to October 7 warnings – and the lessons to be learned<p>Shortly after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, when an estimated 2,000 Hamas fighters breached the Israel-Gaza border in <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/10/30/hamas-attack-october-7-a-day-of-hell-on-earth-in-israel_6213560_4.html">29 different places</a>, the Israeli security establishment allowed a narrative to form that it had very little or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-israel-underestimated-hamass-intelligence-capabilities-an-expert-reviews-the-evidence-215646">no intelligence</a> about the invasion. </p>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/timeline-surprise-rocket-attack-hamas-israel/story?id=103816006">the invasion </a>, where <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-revises-death-toll-oct-7-hamas-attack-around-1200-2023-11-10/">1,200 people</a> were killed, this seemed surprising, particularly because of the reputation of Israel’s <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01495933.2020.1772624?casa_token=WgSU_xi4_J0AAAAA:VYpfBNJT176K0CP_edTfIMaF_s5B9aAKGMzEu1hhYVw3x2BBhTXoF7p3UbGbgVCaKhAzNrpwKQEH">intelligence services</a>. </p>
<p>An intelligence agency’s failure to collect information on an enemy’s specific intentions can have huge consequences. These <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02684527.2012.661646?casa_token=TkFcx9MuzEAAAAAA:z3OZ1b4-arc0evJEiiDc1xJMpgJaV6c3oTVWapnyU_LM7vyFvKdXbjV8_bV8hNhiEfgerUoZSzJR">failures</a> can be excusable when the hostility between the two sides is so stark that it hinders collection and makes it vulnerable to misdirection. </p>
<p>However it is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html">becoming clear</a> that Israeli military intelligence had collected <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-had-a-blueprint-of-the-oct-7-attacks-a-year-ago-officials-dismissed-it.html">specific information</a> on how Hamas could invade. Additionally, they had evidence of what assets and techniques Hamas were likely to use, and what Israeli facilities and possessions would be targeted. From, observing rehearsals, they also had information about the level of violence Hamas terrorists were willing to inflict. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests that about a year ago Israeli analysts had a copy of the Hamas attack playbook, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/world/middleeast/hamas-israel-attack-gaza.html">Jericho Wall </a> document. This detailed how Hamas fighters would breach the border using paragliders, drones and rockets, and what they would seek to attack. The October 7 invasion was a very close copy of this plan.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-hamass-web-of-allies-in-the-october-7-attacks-makes-ending-the-conflict-much-harder-for-israel-218861">Gaza war: Hamas's web of allies in the October 7 attacks makes ending the conflict much harder for Israel</a>
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<p>An intelligence unit had also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/podcasts/the-daily/israel-hamas.html">observed</a> a rehearsal <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinian-war-hamas-attack-border-wall-aa0b0f5f3613b6c6882cf37168e8e8ed">exercise</a> in Gaza City, and drawn the document and exercise together to correctly assess the relevance of both. The analyst had shown remarkable insight when she suggested to her superiors that the rehearsal was not for a raid, but an invasion, according to evidence collected by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/podcasts/the-daily/israel-hamas.html?showTranscript=1">New York Times</a>. </p>
<h2>Why was the correct assessment overlooked?</h2>
<p>The assessment about Hamas appears to have been dismissed for three key reasons.</p>
<p>First, a belief that Hamas did not have the capabilities to carry out the attack, nor the intention to do so because it would fall outside of their historic pattern of behaviour.</p>
<p>Second, these beliefs about Hamas were not thoroughly <a href="https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan/kan-actual/p-591147/628830/">challenged</a> within Israeli intelligence nor through sharing the assessment with international partners who might have had useful intelligence on this.</p>
<p>Third, Israeli defences, be they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/10/how-hamas-entered-israel/">deeply buried sensors</a>, walls, or automatically defended sections of the border, were considered to be too strong for Hamas.</p>
<p>It is not clear from the information that has come to light so far whether the accurate intelligence assessment about Hamas was <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/01/no-indicators-israel-shared-hamas-war-plans-with-u-s-00129667">shared</a> with the prime minister’s office, or with international allies, such as the US.</p>
<h2>What can intelligence agencies learn from this?</h2>
<p>This Israeli failure will be relatable for intelligence agencies around the world. Intelligence analysis is difficult to do accurately, and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2009967.pdf?casa_token=s9f8Ve87-y0AAAAA:F3HC_ebaZFnKHC0auma3NCZQim3e5MEl2WhnWfoZPuCIeefK-6J7YymSTK51wlqK_VnrTJ47kTFElyhUqNgD_rqCQuDA_FiRqnMBKuOlqjv9EBliZNk">failures</a> can have huge consequences. </p>
<p>Assumptions and biases need to be constantly challenged. The question that needs to be asked is: under what circumstances could this group mount such an attack? </p>
<p>This form of oppositional thinking is both basic and essential. Historical examples, such as Stalin’s rejection of clear intelligence around Germany’s imminent invasion (known as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23739770.2020.1840187?casa_token=fzl85ybTPSwAAAAA:RvGeLn_y1hgwnU5dmpAg27iN6oo-aOSestTKgOXN9zU2C7oaXR9cbfV5RsAGcudkCPtzItx3bAOJ">Barbarossa</a>), or US groupthink around the attempt to unseat Fidel Castro, known as the <a href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">Bay of Pigs</a>, are prominent cases.</p>
<p>There are two elements of an intelligence <a href="https://idp.springer.com/authorize/casa?redirect_uri=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-017-0119-8&casa_token=THSvLf2VUQQAAAAA:dFvzsZHC4PsHGnM7Fc7y7lu_gut9PGIobb-Fy3_ST3EJOfAA7RH_1qkhdS-mM644JhDrM5LiHPKPRICB">assessment</a>: the first is what people, skills, finance and equipment does the adversary possess (capabilities) and, second, what does the adversary want to do with these assets (intentions). </p>
<p>If analysts believed that Hamas could not behave in this way, they would tend to look for intelligence that reinforced that view, and exclude intelligence that refuted it. Some of this “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Avner-Barnea/publication/338541395_Groupthink_Through_the_Prism_of_Competitive_Intelligence_Expertise/links/5e1b030b92851c8364c6a4a4/Groupthink-Through-the-Prism-of-Competitive-Intelligence-Expertise.pdf">groupthink</a>” might have been diluted if Israel’s intelligence had been shared with allies who have larger groups of analysts and different intelligence sources. </p>
<p>The Five Eyes intelligence <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ncsc-how-we-work/217-about/organization/icig-pages/2660-icig-fiorc">network</a> (security information shared by Australia, New Zealand, US, UK and Canada) was formed to provide this challenge function. </p>
<h2>Over confidence?</h2>
<p>Intelligence failures often rest on human and technological frailties. Israel’s border defence provided analysts with too much confidence in their ability to defend, regardless of whether of they could identify the threats ahead of time. Similarly, failing to see that an <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.7591/9780801458859/html">adversary</a> is adapting and evolving, and what that might mean for a threat is a large threat to national security.</p>
<p>Getting too comfortable with biases and assumptions is dangerous. There are well-worn <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/structured-analytic-techniques-for-intelligence-analysis/book255432">methods</a> that create systems to ensure constant challenge. It is not clear whether these were not employed in this case, but the lesson is worth rehearsing regardless. </p>
<p>The purpose of intelligence is to provide <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08850600903348887?casa_token=IYyrGM5COGAAAAAA:l1rc2fbMSYrrh5Rl1ismpatOzo7Xk_WyN7tzaNVwSIJ7KxKm_tM3ToiPGtsrpz9VpS31TyurxnWe">support</a> to decision makers. Good intelligence is clear and provides strong evidence for decisions. Failures occur often through lack of coordinated information across agencies (this was the case in 9/11).</p>
<p>The response in the US, UK and western security organisations has been to create intelligence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0967010609350314?casa_token=3TiEdU5e0wwAAAAA:1AdpxgruZR9tg1wfZolyHXMtFz7wq6lVfIlE_85ZPHHrcqsVvxzolect24YyUxYwiU76R9bZygFD">fusion centres</a>, where representatives from all the relevant agencies work in one umbrella organisation. This overcomes the problem of coordinating information between agencies. </p>
<p>There is no suggestion that this is only a problem in the Israeli intelligence community – quite the opposite – but is an issue in the world of intelligence generally. </p>
<p>Intelligence failures can show where agencies have invested too much resource, while under-investing in human intelligence or analytical techniques. These lessons are hard won, and it is a sad reality of intelligence history that <a href="https://www.academia.edu/download/70546587/FJSS_LR_3-52.pdf">strategic failures</a> often act as drivers of reform and improvement. </p>
<p>All intelligence agencies seek to avoid intelligence failures ahead of time with considerable investment in recruitment, training and techniques. It remains the case that the “<a href="https://www.matthewsyed.co.uk/book/black-box-thinking-the-surprising-truth-about-success/">black box thinking</a>” – which seeks to make improvements from systematically understanding failures – is a feature of intelligence and security, even in the most capable agencies today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert M. Dover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Israel’s intelligence services had collected and dismissed some detailed evidence about a possible Hamas attack.Robert M. Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144732023-10-19T00:20:46Z2023-10-19T00:20:46ZIn our first major intelligence review since COVID, here are 7 key priorities to be ready for the next pandemic<p>It may have gone unnoticed with the Voice to Parliament referendum and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-disability-royal-commission-recommendations-could-fix-some-of-the-worst-living-conditions-but-thats-just-the-start-213466">disability royal commission report</a>, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also recently announced a major independent review of Australia’s intelligence communities. It’s the first since the COVID pandemic. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/international-policy-and-national-security/national-security/2024-independent-intelligence-review">2024 Independent Intelligence Review</a> will consider how well our intelligence agencies are prepared for emerging security challenges. </p>
<p>Though the terms of reference do not explicitly mention the pandemic, the response of our intelligence communities to the health crisis should be a major focus. The review will run alongside the government’s much-anticipated <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/improving-future-preparedness-inquiry-response-covid-19-pandemic">COVID-19 inquiry</a>, announced last month.</p>
<p>Both reviews will be vital to how Australia rethinks its intelligence services to meet the changing needs of national security in a post-COVID world.</p>
<h2>The big changes since the last review</h2>
<p>Reviews into Australia’s intelligence community are rather routine. We’ve had them in <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2004-07/apo-nid2889.pdf">2004</a>, <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/2011-iric-report.pdf">2011</a> and <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/2017-Independent-Intelligence-Review.pdf">2017</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources/2024-independent-intelligence-review-terms-reference">terms of reference</a> for the new review focus largely on how well the intelligence community has implemented the 23 recommendations from 2017. </p>
<p>The chief recommendation was to create a new intelligence agency, the <a href="https://www.oni.gov.au">Office of National Intelligence</a> (ONI). The agency, similar to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, was founded in 2018. It reports directly to the prime minister. </p>
<p>ONI’s mandate is to improve governance and capabilities across <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-the-australian-intelligence-community-works-94422">Australia’s nine other agencies that do intelligence work</a>. (This includes the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Secret Intelligence Service and Home Affairs, just to name a few.) </p>
<p>The 2024 review will specifically examine the agency’s progress on this front, particularly during the pandemic. This was when the strength and co-ordination of our public health and national security systems were tested like never before. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Shearer, director-general of the Office of National Intelligence, appears before Senate Estimates in February 2023.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Intelligence challenges during the pandemic</h2>
<p>Nearly four years on from the start of the pandemic, there has been no independent review of the role the intelligence agencies played during the crisis. </p>
<p>This is concerning because there are many lessons to be learned from a once-in-a-lifetime health emergency. We have identified <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2023.2231196">three key challenges</a> the intelligence community faced:</p>
<ul>
<li>finding the cause of the pandemic </li>
<li>providing our leaders with enough advance warning on the severity of the health emergency</li>
<li>combating the large amounts of misinformation and disinformation that impeded the government’s ability to communicate with the public.</li>
</ul>
<p>But there are likely more. Such challenges underscore concerns about whether Australia’s intelligence community is generally fit for purpose, given how rapidly the security environment has <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/sharper-choices-how-australia-can-make-better-national-security-decisions#heading-6973">changed</a> since 2017. </p>
<p>We need to assess how our intelligence agencies can improve their collection and assessment of information related to emerging health threats. And we need to know if our agencies have the right kind of leadership and technological and health-related knowledge to be better prepared for the next health emergency.</p>
<p>At the height of the pandemic, the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/174531-covid-impact-on-intelligence-agencies-to-be-examined/">noted</a> the difficulties that six of the intelligence agencies faced in dealing with disinformation, misinformation, propaganda and the growing threats of extremism and espionage. </p>
<p>It also emphasised the national security implications that should compel the intelligence community to adapt quickly. </p>
<p>We have also <a href="https://theconversation.com/disputes-over-covids-origins-reveal-an-intelligence-community-in-disarray-here-are-4-fixes-we-need-before-the-next-pandemic-201166">written</a> about how the pandemic demonstrated a need for the “Five Eyes” partners (Australia, Canada, the US, UK and New Zealand) to improve their intelligence collection methods and analysis of health security threats.</p>
<p>The government’s COVID-19 inquiry will likely only address the public health shortcomings of the pandemic, not the national security implications of a future health emergency. This is why the intelligence review must make this a priority. </p>
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<h2>7 key points the review should not miss</h2>
<p>In particular, the intelligence review needs to do seven things:</p>
<p>1) Interview key ONI leaders and other heads of intelligence agencies to understand where their capabilities were tested and where there were gaps in their expertise and training during the pandemic. </p>
<p>2) Interview the small group of intelligence analysts responsible for bio-defence and health security issues to determine their capability gaps. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2023.2231196">Our research</a> shows this expertise in Australia and our Five Eyes partners is narrow and superficial.</p>
<p>3) Recommend establishing a health security intelligence group in ONI to better co-ordinate the collection and analysis of both classified and open-source health-related intelligence.</p>
<p>4) Recommend establishing a new committee in ONI to co-ordinate the sharing of information between public health officials and national security agencies. </p>
<p>5) Recommend ONI commission an independent inquiry into intelligence workforce planning for future health security threats. This could consider <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9781315265933-7/human-resources-patrick-walsh?context=ubx&refId=1a4a0c4e-31e0-4f4f-b0c2-5d4725826544">recruitment, retention and attrition</a> of those with health security expertise.</p>
<p>6) Recommend ONI develop an expert group of scientists, government officials, private sector experts and academics with expertise on health security to advise the intelligence community. </p>
<p>7) Recommend the government develop a national health security strategy similar to the national cyber security strategy. This would clearly articulate roles for all agencies in managing future health security threats. The UK’s <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1173779/UK_Biological_Security_Strategy.pdf">Biological Security Strategy 2023</a> might be a good model to follow.</p>
<p>It is vital we don’t miss the opportunity to better prepare our intelligence communities for the next pandemic or bio-security emergency. We need to be ready for the future threats our country may face. It’s no longer a question of if another health emergency will occur, but when. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disputes-over-covids-origins-reveal-an-intelligence-community-in-disarray-here-are-4-fixes-we-need-before-the-next-pandemic-201166">Disputes over COVID's origins reveal an intelligence community in disarray. Here are 4 fixes we need before the next pandemic</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nearly four years on from the start of the pandemic, there has been no independent review of the role the intelligence agencies played during the crisis.Patrick F Walsh, Professor, Intelligence and Security Studies, Charles Sturt UniversityAusma Bernot, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156462023-10-18T14:48:48Z2023-10-18T14:48:48ZHow Israel underestimated Hamas’s intelligence capabilities – an expert reviews the evidence<p>Israel has a cutting-edge security technology <a href="https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/hjy8kobdn">industry</a> and was (and still should be) considered to be the leading nation for national <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231013-former-israeli-security-chief-the-military-can-defend-us-it-cannot-secure-us">security</a>. </p>
<p>The controversial electronic intelligence platform <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/apple-pushes-out-significant-security-update-to-protect-against-nsos-pegasus-spyware/">Pegasus</a> was developed in Israel, and the border between Israel and Gaza was considered – before <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/hamas-israel-nova-music-festival-massacre-1234854306/">the October 7 attack</a> – to be a leading example of using sensors and machine learning to reduce the need for human guards while not reducing the strength of the security. </p>
<p>But when Hamas fighters descended on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/09/how-the-hamas-attack-on-the-supernova-festival-in-israel-unfolded">Supernova</a> music festival on October 7, they had used <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/09/how-hamas-leveraged-cheap-rockets-and-small-drones-to-ambush-israel/">drones</a> to disable Israeli communication towers and remote-controlled machine guns. They also used unexpected tactics to breach the border. These included flooding the <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/palestine-israel/2023/10/09/israels-finite-iron-dome-unable-to-deal-with-scale-of-hamas-attack/">Iron Dome</a> air defences with rockets, arriving on hang-gliders and demolishing the border with bulldozers (a likely echo of Israel’s use of <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230829-bulldozers-demolish-homes-of-palestinian-citizens-of-israel/">bulldozers</a> in occupied territories). </p>
<p>Despite the sophistication of Israel’s border control technology, it remains <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinian-war-hamas-attack-border-wall-aa0b0f5f3613b6c6882cf37168e8e8ed">vulnerable</a> to an enemy who understands how it works and how to compromise it. The lesson for all security agencies after the Hamas attack is to assess what secondary protection there is in their security systems and processes. </p>
<p>The Israelis also seem to have committed a fundamental intelligence error, which is to view the enemy through a set perspective. In assuming that Hamas was incapable and disinterested in attacking using targeted and coordinated force from the land, sea and sky (via missiles and <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/moment-hamas-fighters-seen-paragliding-31129872">hang-glider</a> fighters) they discounted these tactics. </p>
<h2>Misunderstanding Hamas’s capabilities</h2>
<p>In the months before the attack, the Israelis had begun to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/">view Hamas</a> as not actively hostile, and more focused on the economy.</p>
<p>Hamas’s intelligence and security capability has been dangerously <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231009-israeli-intelligence-totally-misunderstood-hamas-experts-say">underestimated</a>. </p>
<p>It is now clear that Hamas had intelligence about the Iron Dome air defence system, the technology on the border, and how it would alert the Israel Defense Forces if it was attacked. This unknown intelligence advantage allowed Hamas to attack over the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-security-failure.html">Israeli border virtually unopposed</a> on October 7, killing more than 1,000 Israelis, including soldiers, and abducting 199 <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/16/at-least-199-people-being-held-captive-by-hamas-israel-says">people</a>. </p>
<p>This misunderstanding of Hamas’s capabilities is probably the product of a mix of poor raw intelligence (basic intercepts that have not been verified, for instance), sophisticated misdirection and overconfidence in prior assessments of Hamas that were not shown to be wrong. Which of these reasons is accurate will only become clear in the official inquiries that will follow the conflict. </p>
<p>Israel is also expert in human intelligence (known as <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/what-is-intelligence">Humint</a>). Humint is convincing someone on the other side to betray their country or their cause. People who do this are often seeking money, sex, prestige, revenge or are motivated by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08850607.2020.1747830?casa_token=yrzoS4vchTYAAAAA:0arieUe-6ngZRIiKcYlDh0s_cUCJKaOfK41EFi_inGTOwqfje_-cBNRmyjlHJShD_VeWt-v4Ovk">disaffection</a>: they are disappointed by how their side has behaved.</p>
<p>Human intelligence also includes “walk-ins”. These are people from the other side offering their information. Reports from Gaza suggest that Palestinian locals would be at extreme risk if caught providing information to Israeli intelligence <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-could-israeli-intelligence-miss-hamas-invasion-plans">officers</a>. </p>
<p>The loss of human <a href="https://www.iwp.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/20170830_LackofHUMINTaRecurringProblem.pdf">intelligence</a> – over time – seems to have degraded Israel’s understanding of the amount of weaponry entering Gaza, what the capabilities of Hamas had become and - most importantly - what Hamas’s intentions were. The enduring lesson for all governments is that to defeat an enemy, you have to separate them from the society they sit in. Effective campaigns are often founded on having secured the hearts and minds of a population. </p>
<p>An important lesson in all intelligence is to be prepared to think in <a href="https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/how-israel-lost-sight-of-its-enemies/">opposites</a>. Rather than assuming that Hamas would avoid attacking Israel in this way because of the strength of the Israeli response it should have also thought that Hamas might attack precisely to secure a strong <a href="https://theconversation.com/hamas-has-achieved-what-it-wanted-by-attacking-israel-terror-escalation-and-disruption-to-the-international-order-215236">response</a>. </p>
<p>In securing that response, Hamas could reasonably predict that Israel’s negotiations with Saudi Arabia would end, and that second and third fronts would open via Syria and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/16/middleeast/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-border-clashes-intl/index.html">Lebanon</a> placing Israel under significant pressure. </p>
<h2>Historical parallels</h2>
<p>A major intelligence failure in the run-up to 9/11 was in not stitching the intelligence together. But it was also in not seeing that individuals taking flying lessons that did not include a <a href="https://www.rusi.org/publication/could-11-september-have-been-prevented">takeoff</a> or landing might suggest a suicide attack: it was beyond the imagination of analysts. </p>
<p>This has its analogy in Hamas’s attack on Israel, where components of the attack like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/">hang-glider</a> mounted attacks, and bulldozers being used to destroy the border fence and guard posts, were not fully contemplated by Israeli officials. </p>
<p>Similarly, the intelligence failure in the 2005 attacks on London was an over-reliance on a thought that became accepted as fact within British intelligence, that Islamist terrorists were only interested in attacking targets <a href="https://irp.fas.org/world/uk/july7review.pdf">abroad</a>. Consequently, the perpetrators of 7/7 were not disrupted in time.</p>
<p>The lesson for all intelligence agencies is to keep challenging their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/jul/14/butler.iraq">assumptions</a> and to assess what the multiple and plausible alternatives are. </p>
<p>Intelligence failures like those of <a href="https://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf">9/11</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/report-into-the-london-terrorist-attacks-on-7-july-2005">July</a> 2005 attacks in London are often because of new terrorist tactics that analysts have failed to imagine could be possible.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hamas-has-achieved-what-it-wanted-by-attacking-israel-terror-escalation-and-disruption-to-the-international-order-215236">Hamas has achieved what it wanted by attacking Israel: terror, escalation, and disruption to the international order</a>
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<hr>
<p>Ultimately, intelligence is about avoiding surprises. But it is also about humans. And humans are unpredictable. There will never be perfect intelligence, only <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt32bxwh">“best truths”</a>. </p>
<p>All any intelligence agency can do is try to eliminate glaring errors. Only time will tell if the Israeli agencies had looked the wrong way, were distracted, or were simply outmatched by an enemy that was helped by a capable outsider and had chosen an unfortunately opportune moment to strike. </p>
<p>But the lessons for national security advisers everywhere are to maintain a system where all assessments are challenged, where opposites are explored and to never rule out what has never happened before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert M. Dover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Israeli intelligence missed signs that might have warned Hamas were about to attack.Robert M. Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147212023-10-16T19:05:07Z2023-10-16T19:05:07ZAI is closer than ever to passing the Turing test for ‘intelligence’. What happens when it does?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553931/original/file-20231016-17-wzq8rn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C113%2C3916%2C3880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels/Google Deepmind</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1950, British computer scientist Alan Turing proposed an experimental method for answering the question: can machines think? He suggested if a human couldn’t tell whether they were speaking to an artificially intelligent (AI) machine or another human after five minutes of questioning, this would demonstrate AI has human-like intelligence.</p>
<p>Although AI systems remained far from passing Turing’s test during his lifetime, he speculated that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“[…] in about fifty years’ time it will be possible to programme computers […] to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70% chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Today, more than 70 years after Turing’s proposal, no AI has managed to successfully pass the test by fulfilling the specific conditions he outlined. Nonetheless, as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02361-7">some headlines</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/06/17/google-ai-lamda-turing-test/">reflect</a>, a few systems have come quite close.</p>
<p><a href="https://browse.arxiv.org/pdf/2305.20010.pdf">One recent experiment</a> tested three large language models, including GPT-4 (the AI technology behind ChatGPT). The participants spent two minutes chatting with either another person or an AI system. The AI was prompted to make small spelling mistakes – and quit if the tester became too aggressive. </p>
<p>With this prompting, the AI did a good job of fooling the testers. When paired with an AI bot, testers could only correctly guess whether they were talking to an AI system 60% of the time. </p>
<p>Given the rapid progress achieved in the design of natural language processing systems, we may see AI pass Turing’s original test within the next few years. </p>
<p>But is imitating humans really an effective test for intelligence? And if not, what are some alternative benchmarks we might use to measure AI’s capabilities?</p>
<h2>Limitations of the Turing test</h2>
<p>While a system passing the Turing test gives us <em>some</em> evidence it is intelligent, this test is not a decisive test of intelligence. One problem is it can produce "false negatives”. </p>
<p>Today’s large language models are often designed to immediately declare they are not human. For example, when you ask ChatGPT a question, it often prefaces its answer with the phrase “as an AI language model”. Even if AI systems have the underlying ability to pass the Turing test, this kind of programming would override that ability.</p>
<p>The test also risks certain kinds of “false positives”. As philosopher Ned Block <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2184371">pointed out</a> in a 1981 article, a system could conceivably pass the Turing test simply by being hard-coded with a human-like response to any possible input.</p>
<p>Beyond that, the Turing test focuses on human cognition in particular. If AI cognition differs from human cognition, an expert interrogator will be able to find some task where AIs and humans differ in performance.</p>
<p>Regarding this problem, Turing wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This objection is a very strong one, but at least we can say that if, nevertheless, a machine can be constructed to play the imitation game satisfactorily, we need not be troubled by this objection.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, while passing the Turing test is good evidence a system is intelligent, failing it is not good evidence a system is <em>not</em> intelligent.</p>
<p>Moreover, the test is not a good measure of whether AIs are conscious, whether they can feel pain and pleasure, or whether they have moral significance. According to many cognitive scientists, consciousness involves a particular cluster of mental abilities, including having a working memory, higher-order thoughts, and the ability to perceive one’s environment and model how one’s body moves around it.</p>
<p>The Turing test does not answer the question of whether or not AI systems <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.08708">have these abilities</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-pioneer-geoffrey-hinton-says-ai-is-a-new-form-of-intelligence-unlike-our-own-have-we-been-getting-it-wrong-this-whole-time-204911">AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton says AI is a new form of intelligence unlike our own. Have we been getting it wrong this whole time?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>AI’s growing capabilities</h2>
<p>The Turing test is based on a certain logic. That is: humans are intelligent, so anything that can effectively imitate humans is likely to be intelligent.</p>
<p>But this idea doesn’t tell us anything about the nature of intelligence. A different way to measure AI’s intelligence involves thinking more critically about what intelligence is. </p>
<p>There is currently no single test that can authoritatively measure artificial or human intelligence. </p>
<p>At the broadest level, we can think of intelligence as the <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12712.pdf">ability</a> to achieve a range of goals in different environments. More intelligent systems are those which can achieve a wider range of goals in a wider range of environments. </p>
<p>As such, the best way to keep track of advances in the design of general-purpose AI systems is to assess their performance across a variety of tasks. Machine learning researchers have developed a range of benchmarks that do this.</p>
<p>For example, GPT-4 was <a href="https://openai.com/research/gpt-4">able to correctly answer</a> 86% of questions in massive multitask language understanding – a benchmark measuring performance on multiple choice tests across a range of college-level academic subjects. </p>
<p>It also scored favourably in <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.03688.pdf">AgentBench</a>, a tool that can measure a large language model’s ability to behave as an agent by, for example, browsing the web, buying products online and competing in games.</p>
<h2>Is the Turing test still relevant?</h2>
<p>The Turing test is a measure of imitation – of AI’s ability to simulate the human behaviour. Large language models are expert imitators, which is now being reflected in their potential to pass the Turing test. But intelligence is not the same as imitation.</p>
<p>There are as many types of intelligence as there are goals to achieve. The best way to understand AI’s intelligence is to monitor its progress in developing a range of important capabilities.</p>
<p>At the same time, it’s important we don’t keep “changing the goalposts” when it comes to the question of whether AI is intelligent. Since AI’s capabilities are rapidly improving, critics of the idea of AI intelligence are constantly finding new tasks AI systems may struggle to complete – only to find they have jumped over <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/the-mechanical-muse">yet another hurdle</a>. </p>
<p>In this setting, the relevant question isn’t whether AI systems are intelligent — but more precisely, what <em>kinds</em> of intelligence they may have.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Turing test, first proposed in 1950 by Alan Turing, was framed as a test that could supposedly tell us whether an AI system could ‘think’ like a human.Simon Goldstein, Associate Professor, Dianoia Institute of Philosophy, Australian Catholic University, Australian Catholic UniversityCameron Domenico Kirk-Giannini, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Rutgers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059132023-09-21T22:33:14Z2023-09-21T22:33:14ZWhat is intelligence? For millennia, western literature has suggested it may be a liability<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548552/original/file-20230915-21-gi9749.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C52%2C3152%2C1968&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Asking if computers will be more intelligent than humans distracts us from grasping the underlying ethical problem with the humans who create and use them. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/what-is-intelligence-for-millennia-western-literature-has-suggested-it-may-be-a-liability" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In the age of <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/anthropocene/">the Anthropocene</a>, humanity appears poised to destroy itself. </p>
<p>Each day brings a reminder of another threat to our peace and security. War, political instability and climate change send <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/what-we-do/build-better-futures/environment-disasters-and-climate-change/climate-change-and">migrants and refugees across national borders</a>. Cybercriminals <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckbrooks/2023/03/05/cybersecurity-trends--statistics-for-2023-more-treachery-and-risk-ahead-as-attack-surface-and-hacker-capabilities-grow/?sh=1a0179419dba">hack networks of</a> public and private institutions. Terrorists use trucks and planes <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/vehicles-becoming-favored-terrorist-attack-weapon-1490215358">as weapons</a>. </p>
<p>And hanging grimly above us all, like the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/what-was-the-sword-of-damocles">sword of Damocles</a>, lurks the threat of total <a href="https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/">nuclear annihilation</a>.</p>
<p>At the root of these threats is a problem that is as old as humanity itself. </p>
<p>In the domain of survival and reproduction, human intelligence stands out for one specific reason. We are the only species on earth for whom intelligence is also an ethical liability. As the anthropological critic Eric Gans has argued, we are the only species for whom the <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=10442">problem of our violence is also our greatest existential threat</a>. </p>
<p>Insights from western literature and myth point to the ethical problem at the core of human intelligence. How we understand the role of humans’ symbolic communication, including language in establishing ethical relations, has profound consequences for our society. </p>
<h2>An ethical liability</h2>
<p>For most of human history, <a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/2986/violence-and-sacred">controlling human conflict has been the task of religion</a>.
For example, among hunting and foraging societies, carefully prescribed rituals must be followed <a href="https://www.asiabookroom.com/pages/books/176465/signe-howell/society-and-cosmos-chewong-of-peninsular-malaysia">when meat is distributed after a successful hunt</a>. </p>
<p>Animals are difficult to track and kill. Meat is rare and highly valued. Consequently, the possibility of violence breaking out during distribution is more likely. Religion provides an ethical guide to the peaceful distribution of meat. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Image of a mask seen on the cover of a book." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534453/original/file-20230627-27-1summh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534453/original/file-20230627-27-1summh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534453/original/file-20230627-27-1summh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534453/original/file-20230627-27-1summh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534453/original/file-20230627-27-1summh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534453/original/file-20230627-27-1summh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534453/original/file-20230627-27-1summh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shakespeare and other writers examined the origins of human violence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Stanford University Press)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ethical problem of human violence has also been explored by literature. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=35000">my work on Shakespeare</a> examines his plays as a systematic attempt to understand the origin of human conflict. Shakespeare’s plays depict in exquisite detail humanity’s penchant for self-destruction.</p>
<p>Before Shakespeare, Homer’s epic poem the <em>Iliad</em> treated similar themes. Homer’s focus was not simply the war between Greeks and Trojans but, more precisely, Achilles’s <a href="https://anthropoetics.ucla.edu/views/vw378/">resentment of his king</a>, Agamemnon, who has used his authority to appropriate Achilles’s war captive, Briseis. </p>
<p>Achilles is by far the better fighter, but if the Greeks are to win the war, Achilles must learn to defer his resentment of his superior. </p>
<h2>Monster as metaphor</h2>
<p>In the scientific and technological revolutions of the modern era, this lesson receives a peculiar twist in science fiction, beginning with <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/84/84-h/84-h.htm">Mary Shelley’s <em>Frankenstein</em></a>. </p>
<p>In Mary Shelley’s novel, the protagonist Victor Frankenstein succeeds in creating a being that is capable of thinking for itself. But Victor’s creature very quickly becomes Victor’s hated rival, which is why Victor refers to his creation as a hideous monster. Victor has what his rival wants, namely, a wife and, therefore, the prospect of children. Victor’s monster is a metaphor for the violence humans inflict on one another. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Frankenstein novel seen with a clock and against printed pages." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538337/original/file-20230719-23-uncvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538337/original/file-20230719-23-uncvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538337/original/file-20230719-23-uncvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538337/original/file-20230719-23-uncvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538337/original/file-20230719-23-uncvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538337/original/file-20230719-23-uncvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538337/original/file-20230719-23-uncvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frankenstein’s monster is a metaphor for the violence humans inflict on one another.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, all animals compete for scarce resources. In this Darwinian competition, violence between rivals is inevitable. Other social animals, like chimpanzees, have well-developed pecking orders that allow conflict over disputed objects to be defused or constrained. The beta animal may challenge the alpha in a fight. If it wins, it takes the alpha position. </p>
<p>But these challenges for dominance are never <a href="https://wwnorton.co.uk/books/9780393317541-the-symbolic-species">represented symbolically</a> as existential threats to the social order. </p>
<p>Only humans represent their <a href="https://www.google.ca/books/edition/The_End_of_Culture/TZ5sQgAACAAJ?hl=en">capacity for violence symbolically in religion, myth and literature</a> because humans are the only animals for whom the greatest danger is themselves. </p>
<h2>Establishing mutual attention: an ethical task</h2>
<p>The dominant view today is that human intelligence is measured by <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/sam_harris_can_we_build_ai_without_losing_control_over_it">how fast an individual brain can process information</a>. This picture of the human brain as an “information processor” is itself a product of the belief that the most important thing about speech <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/logical-empiricism">is to communicate facts about the world</a>. </p>
<p>But what this picture misses is a more fundamental task of language: establishing mutual attention.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A mother and child seen looking at blossoms." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548070/original/file-20230913-25-c67v1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548070/original/file-20230913-25-c67v1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548070/original/file-20230913-25-c67v1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548070/original/file-20230913-25-c67v1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548070/original/file-20230913-25-c67v1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548070/original/file-20230913-25-c67v1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548070/original/file-20230913-25-c67v1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A fundamental task of language is establishing mutual attention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Michael Tomasello, a professor of psychology and neuroscience who specializes in social learning, notes that at around nine months of age, children engage in what he calls <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674005822">joint attentional scenes</a>. </p>
<p>The child’s mother may point to some flowers and say, “Pretty flowers!” What is significant is not merely that the mother has uttered words, but that the child is being invited to engage in joint attention with the mother. The flowers are being made present to the child as an object of shared collective and aesthetic attention.</p>
<h2>An ethical social order</h2>
<p>These insights demonstrate that establishing a human sense of the world depends on our relationships with other people. An ethical social order depends on ethical relationships. </p>
<p>In the age of social media, the rapid rise of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hitler-conspiracies-and-other-holocaust-disinformation-undermine-democratic-institutions-191116">extreme ideologies and conspiracy theories</a> has underscored the ineffectiveness of focusing on empirical truth alone to combat extremism. Many people remain enthralled by charged and incendiary speech or ideologies.</p>
<p>This fact ought to remind us that before we can communicate a concept, we must establish a scene of joint attention. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trumps-words-work-and-what-to-do-about-it-147255">Why Donald Trump's words work, and what to do about it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The view that language is mostly about communicating concepts has consequences beyond encouraging us to underestimate the threat posed by polarizing, divisive or hate speech. This view also encourages us to see people as discrete storehouses of information, who are valuable to us for our own use, instead of in their own right.</p>
<h2>Forgetting our ethical responsibilities</h2>
<p>Increasingly, our conversations are mediated by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-problem-with-online-learning-it-doesnt-teach-people-to-think-161795">ubiquitous digital screen</a>. This is convenient, of course, but convenience comes with a cost. </p>
<p>The cost could be that we forget our ethical responsibility to others. </p>
<p>When technologists assert that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ai-godfather-google-geoffery-hinton-fa98c6a6fddab1d7c27560f6fcbad0ad">computers may soon be smarter than humans</a> and that <a href="https://www.safe.ai/statement-on-ai-risk">artificial intelligence represents an existential threat to humanity</a>, they distract us from grasping the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-is-an-existential-threat-just-not-the-way-you-think-207680">underlying ethical problem</a>, which lies not in the computer but with the humans who create and use it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205913/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard van Oort does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Humanity is the only species on earth for whom intelligence is also an ethical liability.Richard van Oort, Professor of English, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093052023-08-14T12:23:35Z2023-08-14T12:23:35ZThe same people excel at object recognition through vision, hearing and touch – another reason to let go of the learning styles myth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542202/original/file-20230810-22046-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C2%2C1432%2C895&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Teachers want to connect with students in ways that help them learn.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/MPreq6">Government of Prince Edward Island</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The idea that individual people are visual, auditory or kinesthetic learners and learn better if instructed according to these learning styles is <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2023.1147498">one of the most enduring neuroscience myths in education</a>.</p>
<p>There is no proof of the value of learning styles as educational tools. According to experts, believing in learning styles amounts to believing in astrology. But this “neuromyth” keeps going strong.</p>
<p>A 2020 review of teacher surveys revealed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2020.602451">9 out of 10 educators believe students learn better</a> in their preferred learning style. There has been no decrease in this belief since the approach was debunked as early as 2004, despite efforts by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6053.2009.01038.x">scientists</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/the-myth-of-learning-styles/557687/">journalists</a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-problem-with-learning-styles/">popular science magazines</a>, <a href="https://poorvucenter.yale.edu/LearningStylesMyth">centers</a> <a href="https://cft.vanderbilt.edu/guides-sub-pages/learning-styles-preferences/">for teaching</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/rhgwIhB58PA">YouTubers</a> over that period. A <a href="https://www.worklearning.com/2006/08/04/learning_styles/">cash prize</a> offered since 2004 to whomever can prove the benefits of accounting for learning styles remains unclaimed. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, licensing exam materials for teachers in 29 states and the District of Columbia <a href="https://www.educationnext.org/stubborn-myth-learning-styles-state-teacher-license-prep-materials-debunked-theory/">include information on learning styles</a>. Eighty percent of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1475725719830301">popular textbooks</a> used in pedagogy courses mention learning styles. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-90792-1_6">What teachers believe can also trickle down to learners</a>, who may falsely attribute any learning challenges to a mismatch between their instructor’s teaching style and their own learning style. </p>
<h2>Myth of learning styles is resilient</h2>
<p>Without any evidence to support the idea, why do people keep believing in learning styles?</p>
<p>One possibility is that people who have <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2023.1147498">incomplete knowledge about the brain</a> might be more susceptible to these ideas. For instance, someone might learn about distinct brain areas that process visual and auditory information. This knowledge may increase the appeal of models that include distinct visual and aural learning styles. But this limited understanding of how the brain works misses the importance of multisensory brain areas that integrate information across senses. </p>
<p>Another reason that people may stick with the belief about learning styles is that the evidence against the model mostly consists of studies that have failed to find support for it. To some people, this could suggest that enough good studies just haven’t been done. Perhaps they imagine that finding support for the intuitive – but wrong – notion of learning styles simply awaits more sensitive experiments, done in the right context, using the latest flavor of learning styles. Despite scientists’ efforts to improve the reputation of <a href="https://www.insidescience.org/news/when-scientists-find-nothing-value-null-results">null results</a> and encourage their publication, <a href="https://frontlinegenomics.com/a-negative-result-is-positive-for-science/">finding “no effect” may simply not capture attention</a>.</p>
<p>But our recent research results do in fact contradict predictions from learning styles models.</p>
<p><a href="http://gauthier.psy.vanderbilt.edu/isabel-gauthier/">We are</a> <a href="https://jasonc.how/">psychologists</a> who study individual differences in perception. We do not directly study learning styles, but our work provides evidence against models that split “visual” and “auditory” learners. </p>
<h2>Object recognition skills related across senses</h2>
<p>A few years ago, we became interested in why some people become visual experts more easily than others. We began measuring individual differences in visual object recognition. We tested people’s abilities in performing a variety of tasks like matching or memorizing objects from several categories such as birds, planes and computer-generated artificial objects.</p>
<p>Using statistical methods historically applied to intelligence, we found that almost 90% of the differences between people in these tasks were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000129">explained by a general ability we called “o”</a> for object recognition. We found that “o” was distinct from general intelligence, concluding that <a href="https://theconversation.com/people-vary-a-lot-in-how-well-they-recognize-match-or-categorize-the-things-they-see-researchers-attribute-this-skill-to-an-ability-they-call-o-182100">book smarts may not be enough to excel in domains</a> that rely heavily on visual abilities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="images of abstract objects, a chest X-ray, four versions of a prepared food and four imaginary robots" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469066/original/file-20220615-9175-6vr9hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Examples of tasks that tap into object recognition ability, from top left: 1) Are these two objects identical despite the change in viewpoint? 2) Which lung has a tumor? 3) Which of these dishes is the oddball? 4) Which option is the average of the four robots on the right? Answers: 1) no 2) left 3) third 4) fourth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Isabel Gauthier</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Discussing this work with colleagues, they often asked whether this recognition ability was only visual. Unfortunately we just didn’t know, because the kinds of tests required to measure individual differences in object perception in nonvisual modalities did not exist.</p>
<p>To address the challenge, we chose to start with touch, because vision and touch share their ability to provide information about the shape of objects. We tested participants with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1167/jov.22.14.3260">a variety of new touch tasks</a>, varying the format of the tests and the kinds of objects participants touched. We found that people who excelled at recognizing new objects visually also excelled at recognizing them by touch.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="images of hand touching 3D printed spaceships" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542197/original/file-20230810-15-gp9ykf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a task measuring haptic object recognition ability, participants touch pairs of 3D-printed objects without looking at them and decide if they are exactly the same.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Isabel Gauthier</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Moving from touch to listening, we were more skeptical. Sound is different from touch and vision and unfolds in time rather than space. </p>
<p>In our latest studies, we created a battery of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105542">auditory object recognition tests</a> – <a href="https://jasonc.how/oa_demo/">you can test yourself</a>. We measured how well people could learn to recognize different bird songs, different people’s laughs and different keyboard sounds.</p>
<p>Quite surprisingly, the ability to recognize by listening was positively correlated with the ability to recognize objects by sight – we measured the correlation at about 0.5. A correlation of 0.5 is not perfect, but it signifies quite a strong effect in psychology. As a comparison, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ">mean correlation of IQ scores</a> between identical twins is around 0.86, between siblings around 0.47, and between cousins 0.15.</p>
<p>This relationship between recognition abilities in different senses stands in contrast to learning styles studies’ failure to find expected correlations among variables. For instance, people’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.98.1.238">preferred learning styles do not predict performance</a> on measures of pictorial, auditory or tactile learning.</p>
<h2>Better to measure abilities than preferences?</h2>
<p>The myth of learning styles is resilient. <a href="https://advances.asee.org/opinion-uses-misuses-and-validity-of-learning-styles/">Fans stick with the idea</a> and the perceived possible benefits of asking students how they prefer to learn.</p>
<p>Our results add something new to the mix, beyond evidence that accounting for learning preferences does not help, and beyond evidence supporting better teaching methods – like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.edurev.2020.100314">active learning</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.13047">multimodal instruction</a> – that actually do foster learning.</p>
<p>Our work reveals that people vary much more than typically expected in perceptual abilities, and that these abilities are correlated across touch, vision and hearing. Just as we can expect that a student <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/00346543042003359">excelling in English is likely also to excel in math</a>, we should expect that the student who learns best from visual instruction may also learn just as well when manipulating objects. And because cognitive skills and perceptual skills are not strongly related, measuring them both can provide a more complete picture of a person’s abilities.</p>
<p>In sum, measuring perceptual abilities should be more useful than measuring perceptual preferences, because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ase.1777">perceptual preferences consistently fail to predict student learning</a>. It’s possible that learners may benefit from knowing they have weak or strong general perceptual skills, but critically, this has yet to be tested. Nevertheless, there remains no support for the “neuromyth” that teaching to specific learning styles facilitates learning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209305/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isabel Gauthier receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Chow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The idea that each person has a particular learning style is a persistent myth in education. But new research provides more evidence that you won’t learn better in one modality than another.Isabel Gauthier, David K. Wilson Professor of Psychology, Vanderbilt UniversityJason Chow, Ph.D. Student in Psychological Sciences, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052002023-06-13T04:14:38Z2023-06-13T04:14:38ZEavesdroppers, code-breakers and digital snoops: a deep dive into one of the most secret branches of Australian intelligence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529950/original/file-20230604-23-i0ywe5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C101%2C4809%2C3113&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Peter Dutton walks past a screen outlining cyber attacks around the world while visiting the Australian Signals Intelligence Directorate in March last year.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The intelligence industry is habitually accused of being too embedded in its own protective culture, trade-craft and jargon. </p>
<p>As an antidote to the murky world of intelligence, <a href="https://unsw.press/books/revealing-secrets/">Revealing Secrets</a>, by academic John Blaxland and distinguished national security expert Clare Birgin, provides a highly comprehensive, well-researched and captivating account of the history and role of Australian Signals intelligence in national security. </p>
<p>Succinct and accessible, it is pitched for readers who care about transparency and security alike, with enough insight into matters such as cyber security developments and digital war games to satisfy computer and technology geeks. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Review: Revealing Secrets:
An unofficial history of Australian Signals intelligence & the advent of cyber – John Blaxland and Clare Birgin (UNSW Press)</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Signals intelligence or Sigint is about eavesdropping on messages and data. It is the intelligence (or information) gained by the collection and interception of communications and electronic systems that comprise a wide range of “signals” – such as radios, radars, telephone systems and computer networks. It can involve code-breaking and interpretation. </p>
<p>The Australian Signals Directorate, established in 1947 as a signals intelligence and security agency, intercepts communication from countries around the world, learning about the threats and intentions of targets abroad. Its modern-day capabilities – both defensive and offensive – also play an important role in trying to head off cyber attacks against Australia by disrupting offshore, cyber-enabled crime.</p>
<hr>
<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-the-australian-intelligence-community-works-94422">Explainer: how the Australian intelligence community works</a>
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<p>But the book, which traverses the two world wars and post-war national and international Sigint arrangements, points out that the directorate is only a part of Australia’s Sigint (and electronic warfare) history.</p>
<p>Such a broad scope provides the reader with an insightful journey through the management and methods of national security affairs. The book unpacks the switch from analogue to digital technology, to the so-called fifth dimension of cyber in modern warfare (which exists alongside sea, land, air and space). </p>
<p>It covers controversies such as the value of Pine Gap’s shared intelligence arrangements with the United States (Pine Gap is a joint Sigint facility located in central Australia) and explores the government’s ongoing efforts to understand or assess the capabilities, intentions or activities of foreign adversaries. </p>
<p>Revealing Secrets commemorates past intelligence accomplishments (and reflects on failures) while stimulating debate on modern-day intelligence systems in an information age. Subjects explored include crypt-analysis – the study of encrypted text and messages – and the evolution of machinery to aid such deciphering. </p>
<p>There is also an acknowledgement of gender biases in this field. In the 1940s, for instance, there was a reluctance to employ skilled female telegraphists in the army despite the shortage of code-breaking male counterparts. </p>
<h2>Poorly understood</h2>
<p>Broadly speaking, the intelligence function involves the collection, analysis and dissemination of information to support decision-making. This intelligence may have been intercepted from the electronic signals and systems of a particular target, such as a coded enemy message. </p>
<p>Yet as Blaxland has previously noted, signals intelligence has repeatedly been portrayed as the “poor cousin” of human intelligence and other forms of data.</p>
<p>One persistent dilemma is the role and impact of signals intelligence is highly tricky for the general public to access or comprehend. Much of what the directorate does, for instance, is highly classified. Yet the provision of signals intelligence is often mooted by policymakers and defence planners as an indispensable secret asset for tactical and strategic intelligence.</p>
<p>In short, much of the history of Sigint intelligence – revealing secrets and protecting one’s own – is tacit and poorly understood. Indeed, for a long time, the role and increasingly intrusive powers of Sigint tended to be overlooked, or the subject of speculation.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-spy-balloons-here-are-7-kinds-of-intelligence-spies-want-and-how-they-get-it-199289">Beyond spy balloons: here are 7 kinds of intelligence spies want, and how they get it</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>In 2013, whistle-blower Edward Snowden <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-23123964">notoriously exposed</a> the existence of previously classified mass intelligence-gathering surveillance programs run by the US National Security Agency. </p>
<p>The authors of this book acknowledge the intelligence dump about agency’s surveillance net did “cast a long shadow” and caused “great citizen concern about the trustworthiness of national security institutions with vast and potentially intrusive powers”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529951/original/file-20230605-25-m8u1s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Whistleblower Edward Snowden in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras/AP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Paradoxically, the Snowden leaks may have inadvertently coaxed many Western governments to be more secret and less open – although such an instinct could also attributed to other concurrent political happenings.</p>
<p>Even so, one area in which this book excels is in “opening the door” to a deeper appreciation of Australia’s role in global events. Operations <a href="https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/102425324">have included sabotaging enemy communications</a> and denying the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) the ability to connect to the internet – from a base in Canberra – to give cover to Iraqi and partner troops in the Middle East.</p>
<p>Revealing Secrets also reveals how signals intelligence has influenced major diplomatic actions and defence design.</p>
<p>For instance, the decoding of the German Zimmerman telegram by British cryptographers in 1917 helped to draw the US into the first world war. In the 1930s, Sigint was used to tackle Germany’s Enigma code – the breaking of German communication messaging within their armed forces by Allied parties. Signals intelligence was valuable during military campaigns in second world war and Cold War–era operations in locations like Malaya, Borneo and Vietnam.</p>
<p>The book is filled with noteworthy Australian historical characters, such as electrical engineer <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/mckenzie-florence-violet-15485">Florence Violet McKenzie</a>, who, along with her husband Cecil, founded the Women’s Emergency Signalling Corps in 1939 to provide signals training to women. </p>
<h2>Controversies</h2>
<p>Clearly UK and US ties have significantly helped shape Australia’s Sigint capabilities, albeit with benefits and pitfalls. The authors shrewdly capture various controversial aspects of the use and goals of intelligence. They include the Australian government’s A$9.9 billion REDSPICE project, announced last year, which pledged to double the directorate’s workforce and increase its <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2022-9-9-billion-towards-cyber-security-aims-to-make-australia-a-key-offensive-cyber-player-180321">protective and offensive cyber capabilities</a> as part of Australia’s “cyber deterence” posture.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2022-9-9-billion-towards-cyber-security-aims-to-make-australia-a-key-offensive-cyber-player-180321">Budget 2022: $9.9 billion towards cyber security aims to make Australia a key 'offensive' cyber player</a>
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<p>Whether Australia should use <a href="https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023/03/offensive-cyber-and-the-responsible-use-of-cyber-power/">offensive cyber capabilities</a> against other actors and, if so, against who, remains highly contentious. This ambitious project has raised many unanswered questions about what “offensive” digital capabilities and “cyber-hunt activities” might entail. There are potential ramifications with regard to domestic and international law, as well as the norms of good international behaviour.</p>
<p>The authors conclude there are considerable advantages to retaining a joint facility such as Pine Gap. It can assist with arms control verification and provide early warning of missile launches. But the overall pros and cons of Australia’s investment in intelligence infrastructure shared with the US feed into debates about sovereignty, dependency and how future security goals with the US might differ. </p>
<p>The book guides readers through a shadowy side of government, reflecting on legal implications and ethical dilemmas. Australia’s regulation of electronic surveillance remains highly complex and convoluted. Intelligence functions and powers are often blurred within a hyper-legislative context and are declared, the authors write, without “[…] a clear explanation of what is being done and why it is being done”. </p>
<p>The expansion of covert surveillance and data interception within law enforcement and various intelligence agencies has sparked debate about <a href="https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/australias-mounting-mass-surveillance-regime-must-be-reined-in/">human rights implications </a> here. Australia does not have a Bill of Rights, unlike most other similar liberal democracies.</p>
<h2>‘Not all Australians are the good guys’</h2>
<p>The book shows various misinterpretations and misconstructions of Sigint can be explained, in part, due to its highly specialised nature and the concealment necessary to maintain operational effectiveness. </p>
<p>There has also been a reluctance by outsiders to write about Sigint because they do not have access to all the facts about the rationale and workings of electronic eavesdropping, the breakneck speed of technology and intricacies of communications in statecraft. </p>
<p>The authors hope that their book will act as “[…] a preview, or ‘taster’, pointing to where further research is needed […]”.</p>
<p>Such a framing is timely given the directorate’s director-general, Rachel Noble, has defended the need to collect intelligence on Australians for Sigint and cyber security operations. “Not all Australians,” she <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/not-all-australians-are-good-guys-says-new-spy-chief-20200831-p55qwq">has said</a>, “are the good guys”. Noble has clarified that the directorate cannot, under law, conduct mass surveillance on Australians.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529952/original/file-20230605-21-6sj5ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Director-General of the Australian Signals Directorate Rachel Noble.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Koch/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Intelligence does play a substantial role in efforts to better identify and investigate potential threats, avoiding strategic surprise and defending core national interests. And by explaining various facets of Australian Sigint, the book advances the logic that security-planners need to be prepared and forward-thinking in dealing with threat assessments. The history of Sigint itself does reveal the quality and usefulness of the intelligence to support foreign policy and defence preparedness. </p>
<p>It is by no means unreasonable for intelligence agencies to wish to preserve sensitive technical capabilities. But conversely the public do except a high standard of apolitical conduct in “speaking truth to power”. The actions of all agencies must be properly scrutinised. </p>
<p>Digital spying and privacy intrusions should be proportionate and justifiable, balanced with democratic safeguards and adequate checks and balances. In short, snooping on everyone because you can does not mean you should. At its heart, the book is both a reminder of the merits and virtues of actionable intelligence and arguments for checks and balances on government error and excess.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529953/original/file-20230605-25-xegvc3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Despite the inherent vulnerabilities of interconnected cyber-space networks to hacking and exploitation, cloak-and-dagger policies make it hard to know if we are prioritising astute budget commitments and directing resources to the right strategies. </p>
<p>Interestingly, Revealing Secrets was originally commissioned (at a cost of $2.2 million) by the former head of the directorate. It was abruptly shelved due to what Noble <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/history-of-australian-signals-directorate-goes-ahead-without-official-blessing/news-story/bbb883f858150f9adeceb5339f4e9b87%20It%20thus%20became%20an%20unofficial%20history">later described as “the balance of the content”</a>.</p>
<p>Despite not having privileged access to official secret records, Revealing Secrets is a comprehensive deep-dive, bringing to life to previously unmapped archival information and drawing upon both an impressive quantity of associated open-source material. </p>
<p>Blaxland and Bergin have produced a high quality and clear-eyed piece of scholarship, offering a sweeping authoritative historical perspective on one of the most secret branches of Australian intelligence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205200/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Baldino does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Much of the history of signals intelligence in Australia – revealing secrets and protecting one’s own – is tacit and poorly understood. A new book lifts the lid on this world.Daniel Baldino, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2069912023-06-09T11:04:40Z2023-06-09T11:04:40ZKenya’s new spy chief will lead the national intelligence service – what the job is all about<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530379/original/file-20230606-21-9adq4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenya’s President William Ruto recently nominated a <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/return-to-spy-roots-ruto-nominates-noordin-haji-for-top-nis-role-4237026">new national intelligence chief</a>. Breaking with tradition, the president picked a <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/weekly-review/noordin-haji-the-kenyan-spy-who-came-from-the-cold-4260316">career intelligence officer</a>, Noordin Haji. </p>
<p>But what is national intelligence and what work does it do, particularly in Kenya? Since <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20071222015716/http://www.nsis.go.ke/about.php">1999</a>, the country’s spy chiefs have been picked from <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000132285/major-general-philip-wachira-kameru-is-president-uhuru-choice-for-gichangi-successor-at-nis">the military</a>. Haji was previously the director of public prosecutions. </p>
<p>Parliament vetted Haji, in keeping with the <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/sites/default/files/2017-05/PublicAppointmentsParliamentaryApprovalAct_No33of2011.pdf#page=6">law on public appointments</a>. Legislators <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/former-dpp-noordin-haji-sworn-in-as-nis-director-general-4269530">approved</a> his nomination to the <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/index.html">National Intelligence Service</a> as director-general. </p>
<p>Ruto’s choice reflects his <a href="https://africacheck.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/2022-08/Kenya%20Kwanza%20UDA%20Manifesto%202022.pdf#page=62">election pledges</a> on security sector reforms. He said he would end political interference, extrajudicial killings, ineffective oversight and poor accountability in the sector. </p>
<p>In my view as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=6iQ6w3MAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">political scientist</a> who has studied Kenya’s counter-terrorism policies and strategies, Haji could improve civilian oversight and accountability in the intelligence service. Civilian leadership could also help establish a service that adheres to the law and respects human rights. Its covert operations <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/03/24/investigation-highlights-transparency-need-us-uk-roles-kenyan-counterterrorism">haven’t always</a> fallen within the law.</p>
<h2>What is intelligence?</h2>
<p>Intelligence is information that can avert threats to national security or promote national interests. </p>
<p>Intelligence services are state agencies that <a href="https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/DCAF_BG_12_Intelligence%20Services.pdf#page=2">produce</a> reports to help maintain national security. These reports also provide strategic information relevant to a country’s economic growth. </p>
<p>By providing <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenya-terror-alerts-political-scientist-unpacks-the-intelligence-behind-them-176072">reliable information</a> about potential threats to national security, intelligence agencies contribute to peace and stability. This supports a country’s social, economic and political development.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kenya-terror-alerts-political-scientist-unpacks-the-intelligence-behind-them-176072">Kenya terror alerts: political scientist unpacks the intelligence behind them</a>
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<p>The information such agencies gather is classified as counter-intelligence, domestic intelligence or external intelligence. Kenya’s <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/structure.html">National Intelligence Service</a> has three primary divisions responsible for these different kinds of information. </p>
<p>In the Kenyan context, <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/downloads/THE%20NATIONAL%20INTELLIGENCE%20SERVICE%20ACT,%202012.pdf#page=7">counter-intelligence</a> aims to prevent attacks from foreign powers. It also counters subversion, sabotage and espionage. This covers any hostile activity that targets Kenya’s people, institutions, installations or resources. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/downloads/THE%20NATIONAL%20INTELLIGENCE%20SERVICE%20ACT,%202012.pdf#page=7">Domestic intelligence</a> is information about internal threats to national security. <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/downloads/THE%20NATIONAL%20INTELLIGENCE%20SERVICE%20ACT,%202012.pdf#page=8">External intelligence</a> covers any threats to national security from foreign powers.</p>
<p>In Kenya, credible intelligence has foiled several Al-Shabaab <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenya-terror-alerts-political-scientist-unpacks-the-intelligence-behind-them-176072">terror attacks</a>.</p>
<h2>What are the functions of intelligence?</h2>
<p>The National Intelligence Service <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/downloads/THE%20NATIONAL%20INTELLIGENCE%20SERVICE%20ACT,%202012.pdf#page=13">functions</a> to detect actual and potential national security threats. </p>
<p>It then advises Kenya’s president and government on these threats. It also recommends security intelligence measures for other state agencies to adopt. It advises Kenya’s 47 county governments on security matters. </p>
<p>The intelligence service provides confidential security reports on people who apply for state positions that require vetting. It promotes national interests within and outside Kenya. It supports law enforcement agencies in detecting and preventing serious crimes. </p>
<p>By law, the National Intelligence Service <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/downloads/THE%20NATIONAL%20INTELLIGENCE%20SERVICE%20ACT,%202012.pdf#page=16">isn’t allowed</a> to undertake paramilitary activities. It can’t commit acts of violence against individuals or take part in activities that promote a political organisation. The service falls under the office of the presidency.</p>
<p>It’s a <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/faqs.html">civilian agency</a>. This means it is not legally permitted to carry out police functions, such as <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/faqs.html">search, arrest and prosecution</a>. </p>
<p>Some of the threats it detects, for example terrorism, have criminal implications. In such cases, the <a href="https://www.cid.go.ke/index.php/aboutus/our-functions.html">Directorate of Criminal Investigations</a>, which falls under the National Police Service, investigates and sets the appropriate charge. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-agency-needs-speedy-reform-or-it-must-be-shut-down-200386">South Africa's intelligence agency needs speedy reform - or it must be shut down</a>
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<p>There’s an important <a href="https://www.icct.nl/publication/intelligence-failures-france-complex-reality-information-sharing">difference</a> between collecting intelligence for national security and gathering evidence for criminal investigations. </p>
<p>For intelligence services, <a href="https://www.icct.nl/publication/intelligence-failures-france-complex-reality-information-sharing">the secrecy of sources</a> is essential. In criminal investigations, there must be <a href="https://www.icct.nl/publication/intelligence-failures-france-complex-reality-information-sharing">public access to the evidence</a> to deliver a fair trial. </p>
<p>As a former director of public prosecutions, Haji gained experience in gathering information for criminal investigations. This adds to his experience as an intelligence officer. This background could have a positive impact on the service’s intelligence-gathering role. </p>
<h2>How is intelligence gathered?</h2>
<p>This is done through a process known as the <a href="https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/DCAF_BG_12_Intelligence%20Services.pdf#page=4">intelligence cycle</a>. It includes: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>planning and allocation of resources based on threat assessments</p></li>
<li><p>collecting information on individuals, places, events and activities</p></li>
<li><p>processing and analysing this information</p></li>
<li><p>sharing information with decision-makers </p></li>
<li><p>feedback to intelligence agencies. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/DCAF_BG_12_Intelligence%20Services.pdf#page=4">feedback</a> begins a new cycle.</p>
<p>Kenya’s National Intelligence Service gathers information by working with individuals and organisations. It also cooperates with foreign governments and intelligence agencies, such as the <a href="https://www.mi5.gov.uk/">MI5</a> in the UK. </p>
<p>During his vetting, Haji <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2023-06-01-haji-outlines-vision-to-reform-nis-bolster-security/">spoke</a> about the value of information from agents, informers and diplomatic attachés.</p>
<p>The service also <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/downloads/THE%20NATIONAL%20INTELLIGENCE%20SERVICE%20ACT,%202012.pdf#page=14">monitors and records</a> data <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenya-terror-alerts-political-scientist-unpacks-the-intelligence-behind-them-176072">transmitted</a> electronically. This could be via email, instant messaging and mobile phones. </p>
<p>It uses physical tapping or eavesdropping, but must have a <a href="https://www.nis.go.ke/downloads/THE%20NATIONAL%20INTELLIGENCE%20SERVICE%20ACT,%202012.pdf#page=44">warrant</a> issued by a judge to do so.</p>
<h2>Going forward</h2>
<p>During his vetting, Haji listed <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2023-06-01-haji-outlines-vision-to-reform-nis-bolster-security/">several proposals</a> to make the service more accountable and efficient. They included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>revising recruitment policies to represent the country’s social diversity, particularly gender</p></li>
<li><p>using modern technology</p></li>
<li><p>improving public relations and employee welfare</p></li>
<li><p>strengthening regional partnerships to address transnational crimes. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>In my view, such efforts could succeed if the country’s leadership commits to them. The state needs to give the service the financial, technological and human resources it requires to be more autonomous.</p>
<p><em>Note: the article was updated to reflect Noordin Haji’s confirmation as director-general of the National Intelligence Service.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206991/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oscar Gakuo Mwangi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Intelligence reports offer information that can avert threats to national security or promote national interests.Oscar Gakuo Mwangi, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of RwandaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2056942023-06-01T14:11:44Z2023-06-01T14:11:44ZAre rich people more intelligent? Here’s what the science says<p>From <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13406094/">White Lotus</a> to <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7660850/">Succession</a>, there’s high demand for television dramas about the super rich. The characters on these shows are typically portrayed as entitled, hollow and sad. But they aren’t necessarily depicted as unintelligent. So are rich people rich because they are smart? </p>
<p>In the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, this question goes beyond scientific curiosity and touches something deeper.</p>
<p>If people’s net worth were only the consequence of their intelligence, the gigantic <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/economy-99">wealth gap</a> we see in our society might be perceived as less intolerable – at least by some. Inequality would be the price to pay for having the smartest lead us all to a better future.</p>
<p>There is little doubt that intelligence contributes to one’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289613000263#bb0060">economic and professional success</a>. Take self-made billionaires Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Ray Dalio, just to name a few. It would be surprising if top innovators in advanced fields such as tech and finance turned out to be average. </p>
<p>In fact, intelligence is the best predictor of both <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289606000171">educational achievement</a> and <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/buy/2003-11198-011">work performance</a>. And academic and professional success is, in turn, a fairly good forecaster of income. But that’s not the whole story.</p>
<p>Not all highly intelligent people are primarily driven by a desire for wealth – they <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092656612001572">often have a thirst for knowledge</a>. Some may instead opt for comparatively less well paying jobs that are more intellectually rewarding, such as architecture, engineering or research. A recent Swedish study showed that cognitive test scores of the top 1% of earners <a href="https://academic.oup.com/esr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/esr/jcac076/7008955?login=false">were not significantly different</a> to the scores obtained by those who earned slightly less. </p>
<p>But to what extent does intelligence boost wealth? Before diving into the evidence, we must clarify what researchers mean by “intelligence”. <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2019-01683-001.html">Intelligence</a> can be defined as the ability to perform a wide range of cognitive tests successfully. And these seem to be linked. If someone is good at resolving a particular cognitive test, they will probably perform well in other cognitive tests too.</p>
<p>Intelligence is not a monolithic trait, though. In fact, it consists of at least two broad constructs: <a href="https://www.simplypsychology.org/fluid-crystallized-intelligence.html">fluid intelligence and crystallised intelligence</a>. Fluid intelligence taps into core cognitive mechanisms, such as the speed of processing stimuli, memory capacity and abstract reasoning. Conversely, crystallised intelligence refers to those skills developed in a social environment, such as literacy, numeracy and knowledge about specific topics.</p>
<p>This distinction matters because these two types of intelligence develop <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09567976231156793">in different ways</a>. Fluid intelligence can be <a href="https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2044-8279.1980.tb00809.x">inherited</a>, <a href="https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/102168/1/Cognitive_Training_Does_Not_Enhance_General_Cognition_FINAL.pdf">cannot be boosted</a> and decreases fairly quickly with age. By contrast, crystallised intelligence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1529100620920576">increases throughout most adulthood</a> and starts declining only after about 65 years.</p>
<p>But fluid intelligence helps build up crystallised intelligence. Fluid intelligence represents the brain’s capacity of acquiring and elaborating information. Crystallised intelligence is, to a large extent, acquired information.</p>
<p>This means that if your reasoning skills are sharp, then you will process new information quickly. You will integrate novel information with old information accurately. Ultimately, this will speed up learning of any discipline and contribute to your academic and financial success.</p>
<h2>Education is a factor</h2>
<p>That said, innate capabilities are not the only thing that matters. Another significant factor is education.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0956797618774253?casa_token=nOeXqIgTR84AAAAA:nTPBsRJuKNWtCO3F2vNoK0t2m-N1BQZ_5wm4EHp0pg0qN_dDqDXbn3dOgohDyKFwhRMMYMkZmsKUOko">quantitative review</a> has established that the more years of schooling, the higher students’ intelligence scores. Crucially, these improvements stem from training in <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2015-11424-001.html">specific skills</a> rather than enhancing general intellectual ability. So school teaches you useful stuff for both professional success and performing intelligence tests. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, education in turn is affected by family socioeconomic status. For example, expensive schools and private tutors provide the student highly efficient <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloom%27s_2_sigma_problem">personalised instruction</a>. Access to top quality education may therefore make a huge difference in future income.</p>
<p>Of course, the influence of family socioeconomic status on wealth does not operate solely through education. Inheritance and networks are among the most obvious mechanisms. This is particularly true for entrepreneurs, whose investing potential and connections are fundamental for business success.</p>
<h2>The role of luck</h2>
<p>So intelligence, education and socioeconomic status all affect one’s income. However, these factors alone are unlikely to fully account for the individual differences in wealth. In fact, a <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068">recent study</a> suggests that luck exerts a significant impact.</p>
<p>This study highlights that the statistical distribution of wealth differs from the distribution of intelligence. Intelligence is “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/normal-distribution">normally distributed</a>”, with most individuals being around average. By contrast, wealth follows a “<a href="https://mathworld.wolfram.com/ParetoDistribution.html">pareto distribution</a>”, a formula which shows that 80% of a country’s wealth is in the hands of only 20% of the population. </p>
<p><strong>Intelligence versus wealth distribution</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing the distribution of intelligence (left panel) and wealth (right panel; values in log scale)" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528684/original/file-20230527-69553-pgqw7o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The distribution of intelligence (left panel) and wealth (right panel; values in log scale). The data are simulated and are shown only for exposition purposes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This means intellect alone cannot account for the disproportionate disparities between rich and poor in our society.</p>
<p>The study does not downplay the role of intelligence (or talent in general). A fine intellectual ability improves the chances of getting rich. Nonetheless, intelligence is no guarantee of getting rich. Furthermore, a series of fortunate events can clearly turn unremarkable individuals into high earners.</p>
<p>That is, when it comes to getting rich, intelligence is neither sufficient nor necessary. But it does help.</p>
<p>“I’d rather be lucky than good,” says the character Chris Wilton (Jonathan Rhys Meyers) in Woody Allen’s film <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0416320/">Match Point</a>. In the light of the evidence we have just reviewed, he may be right. </p>
<p>Being born into a wealthy and highly educated family is a fortunate event. Likewise, random strokes of luck (like winning the lottery) do not come from years of hard work. We may even push the argument a bit further and conclude that being intelligent is a form of luck itself. </p>
<p>Many things that contribute to achieving financial success are beyond our control. Most, if not all, extremely wealthy people have been blessed by Lady Luck somehow. </p>
<p>Conversely, making the most of what luck brings us certainly matters. Granted, a good deal of individuals merely cash in the benefits of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-meritocracy-is-a-smokescreen-for-inherited-privilege-70948">inherited privilege</a>. </p>
<p>Regardless, many small and big fortunes stem from an intelligent use of the resources we are lucky to have been gifted with – whether they are intellectual, educational or socioeconomic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Education, contacts and luck can play a considerable role when it comes to building up wealth.Giovanni Sala, Lecturer in Psychology, University of LiverpoolFernand Gobet, Professorial Research Fellow of Psychology, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2045482023-05-04T04:20:34Z2023-05-04T04:20:34ZCould using open-source information online get you arrested for foreign interference?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523751/original/file-20230502-265-t0wg6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=181%2C0%2C5544%2C3828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two weeks ago, 55-year-old Sydney businessman Alexander Csergo was arrested on charges of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-17/sydney-businessman-alexander-csergo-accused-foreign-interference/102230648">“recklessly” engaging in foreign interference</a>. </p>
<p>Csergo’s case reads like a spy novel. He allegedly met two Chinese people he knew as “Ken” and “Evelyn” in empty cafes in Shanghai, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-15/alexander-csergo-charged-national-security-information/102227128">taking cash and agreeing to write reports</a> for them about Australian defence, economic and security arrangements.</p>
<p>Csergo’s barrister, Bernard Collaery, has <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nothing-sinister-about-sydney-businessman-selling-public-documents-to-china-court/news-story/eabd8b15e837ee4d975d60160fed9b52">argued</a> that he is innocent. </p>
<p>Collaery has some skin in the national security game. In 2018, he was charged with conspiring to release classified information after he allegedly asked a client (an ex-spy known only as Witness K) for information regarding an Australian spying operation. It wasn’t until last year that Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-07/attorney-general-orders-charges-dropped-against-bernard-collaery/101217272">dropped those charges</a>.</p>
<p>Csergo’s defence is that he <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/man-accused-of-foreign-interference-used-public-documents-court-hears-20230417-p5d126">only accessed publicly available material</a>. He claims he cooperated with police, and even turned over his devices to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) to prove his innocence. </p>
<p>Putting aside Csergo’s guilt or innocence, his case does raise an interesting question: what does Australia’s raft of new foreign interference laws mean for people who deal in open-source information, for example, academics, analysts or journalists? </p>
<p>Could you be breaking the law by doing the “wrong” Google search and posting your results online?</p>
<h2>What does the law say?</h2>
<p>In 2018, the federal government overhauled Australia’s <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2018C00506">national security laws</a> in an attempt to address the growing threat posed by foreign actors. This overhaul included the introduction of nine novel offences for foreign interference. </p>
<p>The new offences include a crime of “<a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cca1995115/sch1.html">reckless foreign interference</a>” - the crime Csergo has been charged with. Csergo is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/world/australia/di-sanh-duong-chinese-austrailia.html">only the second person</a> to be charged since the new laws were introduced in 2018. He faces up to 15 years in prison if convicted.</p>
<p>Reckless foreign interference prohibits covert, deceptive or threatening conduct on behalf of, or in collaboration with, a “foreign principal”. The person must also have been reckless as to whether the conduct will:</p>
<ul>
<li>influence a political or governmental process or right, </li>
<li>support intelligence activities of a foreign principal, or</li>
<li>prejudice Australia’s national security. </li>
</ul>
<p>Many of the terms used in this offence are wide-reaching or have not been clearly defined. This means the offence has the capacity to capture innocent people. </p>
<p>For example, covert or deceptive conduct could arise in relation to <em>any</em> part of a person’s actions, even if it only plays a minor role. So, for instance, an <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1037969X221095915">investigative journalist</a> who uses hidden cameras or goes undercover to investigate a public interest story could be deemed as having acted covertly under the law. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australias-tough-national-security-laws-cannot-stop-foreign-interference-in-our-elections-177451">Why Australia’s tough national security laws cannot stop foreign interference in our elections</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And a “foreign principal” could not only include foreign governments, but also entities that are owned, directed or controlled by foreign governments (such as <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/3898598/01-Ananian-Welsh,-Kendall-and-Murray-764.pdf">media organisations</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/370445039_The_Erosion_of_Academic_Freedom_How_Australian_Espionage_Law_Impacts_Higher_Education_and_Research">public universities</a> or businesses). This means the offence has the capacity to capture, for example, Australian journalists, academics, researchers and businesspeople who work for or collaborate with an entity like this or its staff.</p>
<p>Lastly, the “recklessness” part of the law makes it extremely broad, criminalising people with a much lower level of personal culpability compared to offences that require an “intention” to commit a crime. </p>
<p>It is this element of the reckless foreign interference offence that could catch out people using open-source information online. </p>
<h2>Could I inadvertently break the law?</h2>
<p>It’s not a simple question to answer, but you might.</p>
<p>Ostensibly, this offence could be applied to anyone using open-source research to write an academic paper or policy report, provided it satisfies the other requirements under the law. </p>
<p>Even more at risk is “<a href="https://www.upguard.com/blog/open-source-intelligence">open source intelligence</a>”, or the use of public information for intelligence assessments (think “market research” for spies). This is being used everywhere from the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-11/how-countries-spy-espionage-china-balloon-ukraine-war/101950650">war in the Ukraine</a> to <a href="https://www.upguard.com/blog/open-source-intelligence">combating hackers and identity thieves</a>. Csergo’s case could set a precedent here. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amid-warnings-of-spy-hives-why-isnt-australia-using-its-tough-counter-espionage-laws-more-200440">Amid warnings of 'spy hives', why isn't Australia using its tough counter-espionage laws more?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>One of the biggest pieces missing from Australia’s <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about-us/our-portfolios/national-security/countering-foreign-interference/cfi-strategy">counter foreign interference strategy</a> is an awareness and education effort on how these laws work in practice, as well as the “red flags” we should all look out for.</p>
<p>Individually, Australians also need to wake up to the reality that foreign interference is happening more often than we think. </p>
<p>Foreign interference, espionage and covert action aren’t abstract concepts. They’re real, and they’re happening in Australia. It is no coincidence the head of ASIO said our spy agencies are in “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-21/mike-burgess-asio-annual-threat-assessment/102003692">hand-to-hand combat</a>”. </p>
<p>To be better protected, Australians should be alert, but not alarmed, and be more careful who they share information with. Just think like a spy: if I wanted to do something illegal with this information, what could I do?</p>
<p>The government also needs to consider whether these laws need to be clarified, reformed or even replaced. We will continue to need laws that prohibit other countries from interfering in our affairs. However, in doing so, we need to be careful we aren’t undermining the very freedoms Australia is known for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Walker-Munro receives funding from the Australian Government through Trusted Autonomous Systems, a Defence Cooperative Research Centre funded through the Next Generation Technologies Fund. This article reflects the author's view, and not those of any organisation, agency, or government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article was written in the author's personal capacity as a PhD Candidate at The University of Queensland School of Law. It does not reflect the views of any organisation with which the author is affiliated.</span></em></p>A Sydney man has been arrested under Australia’s foreign interference laws for sharing what he claims was open-source information. It could be a test case for the new laws.Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandSarah Kendall, PhD Candidate in Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1992662023-04-23T14:54:08Z2023-04-23T14:54:08ZDoes our DNA really determine our intelligence and health?<p>In a recent article <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-022-01242-5">from Nature Genetics_</a>, scientists raise concerns over the social impacts of recent advances in genomics - i.e. the study of genomes, or in other words, the genetic material of an individual or species. In passages bringing to mind the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_KruQhfvW4">dystopian sci-fi film <em>Gattaca</em></a>, they describe a near future in which one’s DNA could foretell one’s physical and intellectual abilities and near-perfect children be conceived <em>in vitro</em>.</p>
<p>Indeed, on the surface, it would appear reality is catching up with fiction. We now live in a world where it is now possible to look at the entire genome in a bid to identify the genetic causes of complex diseases. Recent research in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) claims to have pinned down the genetic variants responsible for developing diseases or traits such as drug addiction, antisocial behaviour or intellectual aptitudes.</p>
<p>However, these views are flawed because they are based on a series of errors and misunderstandings; we will now proceed to unpacking them. </p>
<h2>What is a GWAS?</h2>
<p>GWAS seek to highlight differences in allele frequency of markers depending on the expression of the studied trait. The markers can be considered as small flags planted along the genome, each flag having two possible colours (the alleles). The idea behind GWAS is that an association between a marker and a trait allows for the detection of genetic factors independently of environmental factors. This can be done both on quantitative traits (such as height) and diseases.</p>
<p>In the latter case, scientists compare markers between groups of affected and healthy individuals. Each identified marker is then assigned a coefficient that is supposed to represent the strength of its association with the disease. An overall score - known as the <em>Polygenic Risk Score</em> - is finally calculated to represent the level of risk of developing the disease in question.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W_KruQhfvW4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The trailer of the 1997 American dystopian science fiction thriller film, <em>Gattaca</em>.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new market</h2>
<p>As early as 2007, companies began selling disease risk predictions based on saliva samples. Located in South San Francisco, the biotech and genomics company 23andMe collected over a million DNA samples before being ordered by the FDA in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fda-sends-warning-letter-to-23andme-2013-11?r=US&IR=T">2013</a> to cease its activities for want of clinical evidence.</p>
<p>23andMe managed to keep its doors open by changing its approach and collecting DNA to map out the geographical origins of people’s ancestors. An important part of these DNAs has been made available to scientific teams, allowing them to perform and publish GWAS on huge samples. Initially carried out on hundreds of individuals, GWAS rapidly expanded to millions of people. In the past fifteen years, many studies have claimed to have detected genetic factors that could predict not only our risk of disease, but also our intellectual abilities or social adaptation.</p>
<p>For example, a 2018 <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0152-6">study</a> on the educational achievements of nearly 270,000 individuals said it had identified more than a thousand genetic factors responsible for “intelligence”. Four years later, a study based on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-022-01016-z">3 million individuals</a> found the number of genetic factors multiplied by 4. In this spirit, a simple DNA swab would be enough to predict the number of years we were destined to study or <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05477-4">whether we would end up as serial smokers or alcoholics</a>.</p>
<h2>The mistaken assumptions behind Polygenic Risk Scores</h2>
<p>The problem is that these conclusions are based on erroneous assumptions and misinterpretation of associations between the traits to be predicted and genetic markers.</p>
<p>Indeed, Polygenic Risk Scores are specifically based on assumptions put forward in 1965 by <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-1809.1965.tb00500.x">Douglas Scott Falconer</a>. Among these hypotheses, it is excluded from the outset that an environmental factor can play an important role in the expression of the trait, even though we know how much lifestyle choices can impact our health. Environmental factors are also thought to impact the individual at random - regardless of their family, social and professional conditions. Last but not least, it is assumed that the pathological processes at the root of the disease are the same for all, when we know that all diseases are very heterogeneous.</p>
<h2>Misinterpretations of the GWAS studies</h2>
<p>Another problem is that Polygenic Risk Scores are based on a flawed interpretation of the GWAS studies. For if the link between a trait and genetic marker could indeed indicate a genetic factor, this remains to be confirmed by subsequent family and functional studies. Associations could just as well reflect environmental or cultural factors.</p>
<p>For example, a GWAS study comparing people in France who consume salted butter with those who consume unsalted butter would show a large number of genetic markers associated with this trait. Not because it would reveal genetic factors conferring a particular taste for salted butter, but because these markers differ between Brittany and other French regions. The problem of interpreting associations also arises for traits that are due to complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. For example, associations observed between markers and body mass index (BMI) may reflect sociocultural differences, particularly differences in eating habits. This will also be the case for all diseases associated with BMI (diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, breast cancer etc.).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507620/original/file-20230201-14-eonm5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507620/original/file-20230201-14-eonm5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507620/original/file-20230201-14-eonm5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507620/original/file-20230201-14-eonm5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507620/original/file-20230201-14-eonm5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507620/original/file-20230201-14-eonm5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507620/original/file-20230201-14-eonm5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example of a graphical representation of a GWAS study of kidney stones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Manhattan_plot_from_a_GWAS_of_kidney_stone_disease.png">Sarah A. Howles/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These false conclusions have serious consequences, as clinicians increasingly turn to risk calculation tools based on these scores.</p>
<h2>Sociological consequences</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1198102">Already denounced in 1975 by Marcus Feldman and Richard Lewontin</a> and in 1978 <a href="https://eudml.org/doc/198864">by Albert Jacquard</a>, the fanciful interpretations of the Intelligence Quotient (IQ) have resurfaced with the idea that your IQ can be predicted from birth based on your DNA.</p>
<p>The IQ variable was originally thought out as a tool to measure the adequacy of a child to a given school programme. It is not a universal and timeless measure of cognitive abilities, or even of intelligence. Even if we restrict ourselves to France, we cannot compare the mental arithmetic performance of children aged 9 today with those of a century ago, for the simple reason that they were not trained in the same way.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, many so-called “socio-genomic” studies are advancing the idea that we are genetically predetermined to perform well or poorly in school. These ideas are widely disseminated by the scientific press, the mainstream media and books by psychologists such as <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190808/the-genetic-lottery">Paige Harden</a> and <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262039161/blueprint/">Plomin</a>. In light of these ideas, we would be forgiven for asking ourselves about the point of promoting education for all when some are, so to speak, “genetically impervious”.</p>
<h2>Ethical implications</h2>
<p>Polygenic scores are also used by some to differentiate populations according to traits such as intelligence, thereby justifying racist views or eugenic behaviour.</p>
<p>For example, in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289615001087">journal “Intelligence ”</a> , after comparing IQ score of different geographical areas, the author concluded that the genetic factors contributing to intelligence had been subjected to selection pressure during migration and would explain a higher intelligence in the European population than in the African population.</p>
<p>In his presidential address to the American Society of Human Genetics in 2015 [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26942276/ref], geneticist Neil Risch mischievously commented the approach and conclusions. He calculated the scores of Craig Venter (pioneer of human genome sequencing) and James Watson (co-discoverer of the DNA structure). The result was that both have a score below the European average. Risch humorously concluded that a below-average score was enough to land a Nobel Prize or the Medal of Science.</p>
<h2>A flawed genetic model</h2>
<p>In addition to Nature Genetics, journals such as <a href="https://gwern.net/doc/genetics/selection/artificial/2023-meyer.pdf">Science</a>, or <a href="https://www.ashg.org/">societies devoted to human genetics</a> appear rightly concerned about the slippery slope toward genetic determinism we find ourselves on. But they merely raise ethical issues, failing to stress, in the process, that the root of the problem remains an inappropriate genetic model and the misinterpretation of associations with genetic markers.</p>
<p>It would be easy to caricature the scientific debate by labelling those who question the validity of genetic predictions as ‘environmentalists’. Yet to deny the validity of genetic predictions of complex traits is not to deny the effect of genetic factors on these traits. Rather, it is to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/12/8/1266">challenge the assumptions on which these predictions are based</a>.</p>
<p>On a more positive note, these concerning developments should not obscure the valuable contribution of these new technologies when deployed correctly. In particular, studies described as “ post-GWAS ” have made it possible to highlight the role of certain genes or gene networks in diseases whose causes remain difficult to pin down <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34689168/">(cancers, neurological diseases…)</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>New genetic studies claim to be able to foretell our intelligence or predisposition to certain diseases. But two scientists beg to disagree, reminding us that not everything is written in our DNA.Françoise Clerget-Darpoux, Directeur de recherches émérite en génétique statistique, InsermEmmanuelle Genin, Directrice de Recherche en génétique statistique et des populations, InsermLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023662023-03-28T15:28:33Z2023-03-28T15:28:33ZPaul Mashatile, South Africa’s new deputy president, has a critical task: to bring back a sense of stability<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517666/original/file-20230327-20-x9uext.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Paul Mashatile, the deputy president of South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Foto24/Gallo Images/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a recent <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/statement-president-cyril-ramaphosa-changes-national-executive">cabinet reshuffle</a> President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed Paul Mashatile, the deputy president of South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), as the country’s deputy president. The tradition in the ANC since democracy in 1994 has been for its elected deputy president to ascend first to the deputy presidency of the country, and eventually to become head of state. So Mashatile, an <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-has-a-new-deputy-president-in-paul-mashatile-what-he-brings-to-the-table-200089">experienced politician</a>, may also be destined for top office.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa’s cabinet reshuffle took place in a climate of growing <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-has-been-warned-that-it-faces-an-arab-spring-so-what-are-the-chances-187634">restlessness</a> across the nation about the many failures of the state, high levels of corruption and <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-between-crime-and-politics-in-south-africa-raises-concerns-about-criminal-gangs-taking-over-198160">organised crime</a>. </p>
<p>As a political scientist and researcher on security governance matters, I have been considering the role Mashatile could play in responding to the security crisis. </p>
<p>He will serve on two cabinet structures that are crucial to safety and security in the country. Through this he could contribute to rebuilding <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-have-low-trust-in-their-police-heres-why-178821">trust</a> that the public has lost in the law enforcement and criminal justice system. </p>
<h2>Justice, crime prevention and security</h2>
<p>One of Mashatile’s <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2023-03-14-ramaphosa-appoints-mashatile-to-chair-cabinet-security-cluster/">tasks</a> is to chair the <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/resource_centre/publications/naidoo_makananisa_integrated_presentation.pdf">Justice, Crime Prevention and Security</a> cabinet committee. This committee coordinates the work of the ministers who are collectively charged with ensuring safety and stability in the country. During the devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-deadly-july-2021-riots-may-recur-if-theres-no-change-186397">July 2021 unrest</a>, the ministers contradicted each other. They also failed to show a united front against the violence that engulfed several provinces, particularly KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.</p>
<p>With deft leadership, Mashatile can assist Ramaphosa to address the legacy of poorly coordinated security services. The former minister in the presidency, <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/politics/security-cluster-needs-unity-gungubele-20220730">Mondli Gungubele</a>, acknowledged this problem on the anniversary of the deadly July 2021 riots. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-has-a-new-deputy-president-in-paul-mashatile-what-he-brings-to-the-table-200089">South Africa has a new deputy president in Paul Mashatile: what he brings to the table</a>
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<p>The Justice, Crime Prevention and Security cluster was among several cabinet “clusters” established during former president Thabo Mbeki’s tenure. This has cemented a tradition of intergovernmental cooperation ever since. It oversees the work of the following core ministries and departments:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>police</p></li>
<li><p>state security</p></li>
<li><p>justice and correctional services </p></li>
<li><p>home affairs</p></li>
<li><p>defence and military veterans</p></li>
<li><p>finance.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Mashatile will have to contend with a labyrinth of structures responsible for safety. The operational work of the cluster is coordinated by the directors-general of these departments through the National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (<a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/national-joint-operational-and-intelligence-structure-natjoints-0700-update-20-mar-2023">NATJOINTS</a>). </p>
<p>While the NATJOINTS operates at national level, its activities are decentralised to provincial structures (<a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/all-hands-on-deck-w-cape-saps-sandf-metro-police-on-high-alert-amid-planned-national-shutdown-20230319">PROVJOINTs</a>). They coordinate security operations at a provincial level. They work with municipal law enforcement and emergency services, and advise the provincial governments on measures they are taking to keep the public safe. </p>
<h2>The National Security Council</h2>
<p>Mashatile will also serve on the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/notices/2020/20200310-gg42482proc13-COnstitution-NSC.pdf">National Security Council</a>, which is chaired by the president.</p>
<p>The entity is mandated to coordinate a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-03-01-sas-proposed-national-security-strategy-more-hot-air-or-a-potential-democratic-opening/">national security strategy</a>. It also oversees the annual formulation of a budget and priorities by the country’s <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-01-27-the-ssa-can-improve-but-misconceptions-about-the-role-of-intelligence-services-need-to-be-cleared-up/">intelligence services</a>. It is responsible for coordinating the work of the security services, law enforcement agencies and relevant organs of state to ensure national security. In addition, it receives coordinated, integrated intelligence assessments from the national security structures, and mandates these structures to attend to matters of national security as required.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-strategic-leadership-to-weather-its-storms-its-presidents-have-not-been-up-to-the-task-194296">South Africa needs strategic leadership to weather its storms. Its presidents have not been up to the task</a>
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<p>There is a significant <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/notices/2020/20200310-gg42482proc13-COnstitution-NSC.pdf">overlap of the membership</a> of the Justice, Crime Prevention and Security cluster of ministers, and the National Security Council. Besides the president and deputy president, the council includes all the ministers who are part of the Police, State Security and Justice cabinet committee, as well as the ministers of home affairs, defence and military veterans, international relations, and cooperative governance and traditional affairs. </p>
<h2>How Mashatile could bring stability</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa has entrusted important functions to his deputy. This suggests a level of confidence and cooperation between the two men, rather than a <a href="https://sundayworld.co.za/news/politics/block-mashatile-ramaphosa-warned/">rivalry</a>. Neither can afford to let the ANC fail in government, as this would augur badly for its <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2023/02/09/anc-crisis-polls-steep-loss-support-elections">prospects</a> in the 2024 general elections. </p>
<p>Mashatile should prioritise getting a few key systems in place. The visibility and effectiveness of the police in day-to-day policing must improve. He must oversee strategies to combat organised crime, which is strangling so many areas of public life. He must also work to secure the resources to implement the recommendations of the <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">Zondo Commission on state capture</a>. </p>
<p>With confidence in the state <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/migrated/files/publications/Dispatches/ad474-south_africans_trust_in_institutions_reaches_new_low-afrobarometer-20aug21.pdf">as low as it is</a>, and the public deeply traumatised by high levels of <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-02-09-sona-2023-sas-soaring-murder-rate-underscores-need-for-ramaphosa-to-ensure-better-leadership-in-policing/">violent crime</a>, Mashatile must put in extra effort to boost public confidence in the justice, crime prevention and security sector. </p>
<p>He can do this by listening to what key stakeholders have to say about the security of the country. Young people bear the brunt of the epidemic of violence – physical and structural. Attending to their security and <a href="https://theconversation.com/idle-and-frustrated-young-south-africans-speak-about-the-need-for-recreational-facilities-176921">wellbeing</a> is crucial for the country’s future.</p>
<p>He also needs to be more strategically visible than his predecessor, David Mabuza, who <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/government/david-mabuza-the-man-from-mpumalanga-who-quit-as-deputy-president-before-some-argue-ever-starting-20230304">resigned</a> from the position. Mabuza’s job description was almost identical to that of Mashatile’s. Yet he <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/ramaphosa-urged-to-appoint-a-competent-deputy-president/">left office with many questioning</a> if he had made any impact. </p>
<h2>New broom</h2>
<p>Mashatile could be the new broom that sweeps clean. Ramaphosa’s apparent confidence in him suggests that he has some latitude to do so. </p>
<p>It is said the job of a deputy president, in practically any country, is <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2021-01-20/what-does-the-vice-president-do">waiting</a> to replace the president. While Mashatile waits in the wings, he has the opportunity to make a difference and make South Africa a more secure place for the public.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sandy Africa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mashatile could be the new broom that sweeps clean. Ramaphosa’s apparent confidence in him suggests that he has some latitude to do so.Sandy Africa, Associate Professor, Political Sciences, and Deputy Dean Teaching and Learning (Humanities), University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2025282023-03-28T09:52:54Z2023-03-28T09:52:54ZICC arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin: a king-size dilemma for South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517651/original/file-20230327-27-lar6a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Presidents Cyril Ramaphosa and Vladimir Putin at the first Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi, Russia, in 2019.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photos: GCIS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The International Criminal Court (ICC) <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and">has issued an international arrest warrant</a> for Russian president Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes regarding the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia. Such acts are war crimes under two articles of the <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf">Rome Statute</a>, which established the court.</p>
<p>ICC arrest warrants against <a href="https://theconversation.com/putin-and-the-icc-history-shows-just-how-hard-it-is-to-bring-a-head-of-state-to-justice-202247">sitting heads of state are rare</a>. </p>
<p>Putin faces arrest if he sets foot in any of the <a href="https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties">123 signatory states</a> to the statute. Of these, 33 are African states. The issue could come to a head in August when South Africa is set to host the 15th summit of the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) bloc in <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-9-mar-2023-0000#:%7E:text=South%20Africa%20is%20chairing%20the,22%20to%2024%20August%202023">Durban</a>.</p>
<p>As the head of a member state Putin has been invited to attend. But as a member of the court, South Africa is obliged under Article 86 of the ICC statute and <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/acts/2002-027.pdf">domestic law</a> to cooperate fully by arresting the Russian president. </p>
<p>This is not the first time the country has faced such a dilemma. </p>
<p>In 2015 Sudanese president <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33125108">Omar Al Bashir visited the country</a> to attend a summit of <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/25th-african-union-summit-7-15-jun#:%7E:text=South%20Africa%20is%20hosting%20the,5%20June">African Union heads of state</a>. In terms of South Africa’s ICC obligations, it was obliged to arrest Al Bashir, who had been <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/darfur/albashir">indicted</a> for violations of international humanitarian law and human rights law in Sudan’s Darfur region. The government, then under the presidency of Jacob Zuma, refused to arrest him, <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/clutching-at-straws-sas-reasons-for-not-arresting-al-bashir">citing immunity from prosecution for sitting heads of state under international law</a>.</p>
<p>The arrest warrant for Putin has put President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government between a rock and a hard place. Complying with its domestic and international obligations by executing the arrest warrant would alienate Russia. This would have bilateral consequences – the country is still considered a friend by the ruling African National Congress based on the Soviet Union’s support during the struggle against apartheid – as well as ramifications within the BRICS, given <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html">Moscow’s strong ties with Beijing</a>. </p>
<p>It is not unreasonable to argue that Ramaphosa’s government would want to tread carefully to avoid any such tensions. </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-essential-reads-on-russia-africa-relations-187568">Five essential reads on Russia-Africa relations</a>
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<p>On the other hand, welcoming Putin, thus <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-africas-indulgence-of-putin-is-unsustainable/2023/02/03/e0b461b8-a381-11ed-8b47-9863fda8e494_story.html">underscoring South Africa’s independent foreign policy</a>, would see the country lose international credibility. </p>
<p>One likely effect is that South Africa might lose preferential trade terms. For example, it could jeopardise its treatment of exports to the US under the <a href="https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/trade-development/preference-programs/african-growth-and-opportunity-act-agoa">African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)</a>. AGOA has been used recently as a punishing tool against Ethiopia, The Gambia and Mali for “unconstitutional change in governments” and <a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2022/january/us-terminates-agoa-trade-preference-program-ethiopia-mali-and-guinea">“gross violations of internationally recognised human rights</a>”.</p>
<p>Importantly, <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/opinion/2023-03-16-francois-fouche-trading-down-south-africas-game-of-russian-roulette/">South Africa’s trade with the US far exceeds that with Russia</a>.</p>
<h2>The dilemma</h2>
<p>When the Zuma administration refused to arrest Al Bashir, it landed the government in judicial hot water. South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA/2016/17.html">found</a> that it had violated both international and domestic law.</p>
<p>Following the ruling of the Supreme Court of Appeal, Zuma’s government notified the United Nations secretary general of its intention <a href="https://www.pgaction.org/news/stand-against-impunity-south-africa.html">to withdraw from the Rome Statute</a>. This ill advised move was challenged in the High Court in Pretoria. It <a href="https://hsf.org.za/publications/hsf-briefs/withdrawal-from-icc-high-court-judgment">ruled</a> that the notice of withdrawal was unconstitutional due to the absence of prior parliamentary approval. Consequently, the government <a href="https://www.pgaction.org/ilhr/rome-statute/south-africa.html">“withdrew from the withdrawal”</a>.</p>
<p>In 2017, the <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/court-record/icc-02/05-01/09-302">ICC found</a> that South Africa had failed in its obligations under the Rome Statute towards the court by not arresting and surrendering Al Bashir. The court, however, decided not to pursue the matter further for <a href="https://theconversation.com/icc-ruling-on-south-africa-and-al-bashir-pragmatism-wins-the-day-81500">pragmatic reasons</a>. It also reasoned that to refer South Africa to the United Nations Security Council for noncompliance <a href="https://www.southernafricalitigationcentre.org/2017/07/07/news-release-icc-finding-on-south-africas-non-compliance-falls-short/">“would not be an effective way to foster future cooperation”</a>.</p>
<p>In the event that Putin attended the upcoming BRICS summit and Ramaphosa’s government did not arrest him, it would mean that South Africa was flouting domestic legislation as well as its own constitution. Article 165 (5) of the country’s <a href="https://www.concourt.org.za/images/phocadownload/the_text/Slimline-Constitution-Web-Version.pdf">constitution</a> makes it clear that the government is bound by court orders and decisions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/al-bashir-what-the-law-says-about-south-africas-duties-43498">Al-Bashir: what the law says about South Africa's duties</a>
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<p>How should South Africa respond to the dilemma?</p>
<p>At present the government’s response is not clear. On the one hand, Ramaphosa’s spokesperson <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-aware-legal-obligations-regarding-putin-visit-2023-03-19/">said</a> that the country was aware of its obligations to arrest Putin and surrender him to the ICC. </p>
<p>On the other hand, Naledi Pandor, the foreign relations minister, confirmed the <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-03-23-russias-vladimir-putin-invited-to-attend-brics-summit-in-sa-pandor-confirms/">invitation to Putin to attend the BRICS meeting</a>. She noted that cabinet would have to decide on how to respond in view of the ICC warrant.</p>
<p>The government would want to balance its ICC obligations, domestic responsibilities and its historically friendly relations with Russia carefully. Unless it is hellbent on defying its own court decisions and laws, there are options available to avoid another round of international condemnation, and that would help it avoid potential court battles by civil society for noncompliance with the country’s own laws and court decisions. </p>
<h2>Options</h2>
<p>Firstly, South Africa should continue to extend an invitation for Russia to attend the summit. But, through diplomatic channels, request that the Russian delegation be led by its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. Lavrov has in essence become the face of Russia on the <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-foreign-minister-sergei-lavrov-western-leaders-militarize-southeast-asia-asean-g20-bali-indonesia/">international stage</a> since the start of the war in Ukraine. </p>
<p>Secondly, during the COVID pandemic, it became clear that physical presence at international gatherings for heads of states could be substituted with virtual attendance. The UN General Assembly set a good benchmark for this when heads of state <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/20/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-unga-summit">submitted video statements due to pandemic restrictions</a>. Putin could attend the BRICS summit virtually. </p>
<p>The need to sign summit documentation by the heads of state is not an impediment to virtual attendance. Putin can sign the documents electronically or after the summit, if a non-electronic signature is required.</p>
<p>The ball is now in the South African government’s court. The hope is that it makes the right decision, one which is in the best interests of the country and its people – not Russia or the likes of the US, especially as neither major power is a signatory to the ICC’s statute. Neither should prescribe to South Africa what it should decide. </p>
<p>Most importantly, the government must not trample on its own laws and court decisions. Compliance with the constitution must be the priority. Making a decision that is in the interests of South Africa and its people would also provide guidance to the other 32 African ICC signatory states, should they ever be faced with a similar dilemma in the future.</p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored with Sasha-Lee Stephanie Afrika (LLD), Attorney of the High Court of South Africa and former lecturer at Stellenbosch University and University of Johannesburg.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government must not trample on its own laws and court decisions. Compliance with the constitution must be the priority.Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann, Professor in Law and Co-Convener National Security Hub (University of Canberra) and Research Fellow (adjunct) - The Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa, Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University- NATO Fellow Asia-Pacific, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2016562023-03-17T17:26:20Z2023-03-17T17:26:20ZThe Iraq war’s damage to public trust in experts has consequences right up to today<p>Twenty years after the invasion of Iraq, politicians continue to repeat the errors of the past by taking information from security briefings that they want to hear.</p>
<p>Ahead of the 2003 invasion and subsequent occupation, US and UK politicians used some of the intelligence gathered by western security agencies to suggest that the local population would predominantly welcome external military powers as liberators. But it quickly became apparent <a href="https://www.leadingtowar.com/war_rosecolored.php#as6">this was a mistake</a> and that the fighting capability of those who would resist had been underestimated. A <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/iraq-without-a-plan">long and bloody insurgency</a> followed.</p>
<p>Fast forward to 2022 and we saw Russian president Vladimir <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-believed-his-own-propaganda-and-fatally-underestimated-ukraine/">Putin</a> acting under the apparent belief that his conquest of Ukraine would also be simple, and meet with little resistance from a weak defence force. Western intelligence reports have since highlighted how Putin and his advisers significantly underestimated Ukraine and <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-invasion-ukraine-intelligence-putin/31748594.html">made poor judgements</a> about their own intelligence information.</p>
<p>The public, however, at least in western countries, appears to have become much more sceptical of politicians armed with intelligence from experts. As well as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/iraq-20-years-on-death-came-from-the-skies-on-march-19-2003-and-the-killing-continues-to-this-day-201988">thousands of deaths</a>, trillions of dollars of expense and irreversible changes to national and international politics, this arguably remains one of the legacies of the Iraq war.</p>
<p>The conflict taught the public valuable lessons about intelligence. A review by <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61171/wmdreview.pdf">Lord Butler</a> and the <a href="https://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/">Chilcot inquiry</a> that followed the war showed that intelligence is never certain. Intelligence agencies provide “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt32bxwh">best truths</a>” to politicians, who then take decisions. </p>
<p>The Iraq war made secret intelligence a topic for discussion in homes across the world. A publicly accessible version of the intelligence picture was presented to the public by UK prime minister <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/02/uk_dossier_on_iraq/pdf/iraqdossier.pdf">Tony Blair</a>. This was a groundbreaking decision and one that defined Blair’s career. </p>
<p>The weaknesses in the intelligence <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110614090401/http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/layout/set/print/content/view/full/100?id=10215&lng=en&ord588=grp2&ots591=0C54E3B3-1E9C-BE1E-2C24-A6A8C7060233">dossiers</a>, once exposed, also appeared to undermine public support for the conflict. In contrast, the public continued to strongly support the armed forces and particularly those injured and killed in <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0095327X13516616">action</a>.</p>
<p>In parallel a public narrative developed that experts were often wrong, and politicians could not be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00138380701771025">trusted</a>. The idea that experts are not to be trusted has become ever more repeated in recent years, through the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3be49734-29cb-11e6-83e4-abc22d5d108c">Brexit debates</a> and governmental responses to the <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/matt-hancock-isabel-oakeshott-whatsapp-leak-scandal-lockdown-files-b1064185.html">pandemic</a>. </p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-been-20-years-since-the-us-invaded-iraq-long-enough-for-my-undergraduate-students-to-see-it-as-a-relic-of-the-past-199460">It's been 20 years since the US invaded Iraq – long enough for my undergraduate students to see it as a relic of the past</a>
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<p>However, the failings in the communication and use of intelligence data does not mean security services were to blame for the war.</p>
<p>True, some of the vulnerabilities in western intelligence reporting seemed farcical when exposed to public scrutiny. The information from an informant known as Curveball – an Iraqi expatriate – was used by the US in making the case for war in the UK, despite German and British reservations. Curveball’s information later emerged to be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/24/AR2006062401081_pf.html">inaccurate</a>. </p>
<p>But in other areas it appears intelligence services provided nuanced information and accurate warnings. For example, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jul/20/chilcot-mi5-boss-iraq-war">UK intelligence chiefs</a> warned ministers that the conflict would increase the terrorist threat. </p>
<p>Others within <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200405/cmselect/cmdfence/65/6506.htm">defence intelligence</a> warned that once the first phase of the conflict against regular Iraqi armed forces were complete that a long-running insurgency would follow. Commanders in the British army warned that without direct investment into the Iraqi city of Basra and surroundings that this area would become <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2003/06/02/basra/crime-and-insecurity-under-british-occupation">radicalised</a>.</p>
<p>Some key assumptions around Iraq’s chemical weapons programme were clearly unhelpful. But the agencies were arguably also right to feel bruised that the blame for the war landed with them, when they had no way of changing government policy.</p>
<h2>The rise of conspiracy theories</h2>
<p>The leaks and publication of intelligence related to Iraq brought with them the era of the armchair expert and the conspiracy theorist. Many academics argued that this <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02684520500268897?casa_token=p5QSeVc4Qx8AAAAA:ZflrGCpLRHBF3w4c595W8uYDHRcMpf2etc83HqSip8QsRL-R2sSV1dnPvKHcymS0ZVCtMscLGmMj">openness</a> in intelligence would produce a mature public debate. But the weaknesses in the intelligence undermined the idea that governments are a source of <a href="https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/blog/how-iraq-war-led-legacy-public-mistrust-intelligence/">truth</a>. </p>
<p>Deep dive investigations and conspiracies have surrounded the death of biological weapons expert and UK government advisor David Kelly in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jul/16/david-kelly-death-10-years-on">2003</a>. Kelly’s untimely death has been the subject of official and unofficial investigations and spurred a cottage industry in speculation. </p>
<p>Kelly died after he was publicly revealed to be a confidential source for BBC journalist Andrew Gilligan’s assertion that part of the government’s intelligence dossier on “weapons of mass destruction” was <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43828472">fabricated</a>. His death was officially ruled a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110515030509/http://www.the-hutton-inquiry.org.uk/content/report/huttonreport.pdf">suicide</a>. </p>
<p>This was confirmed by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2004/feb/06/huttonreport.davidkelly">Hutton inquiry</a> and again by a later inquiry by the attorney general. But <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/iraq-whistleblower-dr-kelly-was-murdered-to-silence-him-says-mp-6644896.html">public suspicion</a> about Kelly’s death persist with books and a <a href="https://www.channel4.com/press/news/government-inspector">TV drama </a>.</p>
<p>More broadly, Iraq resulted in a loss in public support for British involvement in <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1467-9256.12073">war</a>, which was seemingly conditional on how people viewed the purpose of the conflict and prospects of victory. </p>
<p>This view will in part be shaped by their trust in the initial intelligence and in whether they believe governments tell the truth. As debates around <a href="https://www.oecd.org/governance/trust-in-government/">the pandemic</a> have shown, once <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2020/03/17/perception-government-handling-covid-19">trust</a> has gone it is hard to get back. </p>
<p>Intelligence agencies did change the way they operate in response to criticisms over Iraq. Agencies spent more time and resource on ensuring they had more evidence for their claims and were more careful with wording claims. This was a necessary change for the intelligence community, but did not address how politicians use intelligence. Without that change, the world is still vulnerable to misread and misunderstood intelligence assessments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201656/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert M. Dover received funding from the ESRC for a series of seminars examining the role of intelligence in public policy making and from the AHRC for a project examining the lessons that could be drawn from successful intelligence operations. </span></em></p>Agencies may make more checks, but they can’t prevent politicians misusing intelligence information, says an expert.Robert M. Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011662023-03-08T19:08:13Z2023-03-08T19:08:13ZDisputes over COVID’s origins reveal an intelligence community in disarray. Here are 4 fixes we need before the next pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514090/original/file-20230308-1271-geniim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=296%2C40%2C3585%2C2467&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Koki Kataoka/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A recent <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a">Wall Street Journal article</a> reported on new, classified intelligence from the US Department of Energy about the origins of COVID. It concluded with “low confidence” that the pandemic may have been due to a lab leak in Wuhan, China, rather than a natural disease transmission from animal to human. </p>
<p>The report is the latest chapter in a long saga about the origins of the pandemic, involving conflicting assessments from intelligence, policy and scientific communities around the globe.</p>
<p>The debate over the origins of COVID began early in the pandemic, with a lot of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/us/politics/trump-administration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html">pressure</a> being placed on the intelligence community by then-US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to lay blame on the Chinese government. </p>
<p>In May 2021, the Biden administration tried to resolve some of the conflicting intelligence and data points about the origins of COVID by <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/26/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-investigation-into-the-origins-of-covid-19/">tasking</a> the US intelligence community to do a 90-day review on the available information. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2021/item/2263-declassified-assessment-on-covid-19-origins">unclassified version of this review</a> was then released in October 2021. It was published by the peak body within the US intelligence community – the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. </p>
<p>The report shows a consensus among eight US intelligence agencies and the National Intelligence Council (which provides longer-term strategic analysis for the president) that COVID was not a bioterrorism incident. </p>
<p>However, there was disagreement among the agencies around the two most probable origins of COVID: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>it was the result of animal-to-human transmission</p></li>
<li><p>it was the result of an accidental laboratory leak, likely from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>No agency was named in the unclassified report, though four agencies, as well as the National Intelligence Council, have reportedly concluded (also with low confidence) that the origins were from natural transmission. Two others (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/covid-lab-leak-house-hearing.html">the FBI and Department of Energy</a>) have now assessed it as a lab leak. Two agencies remain undecided, including, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/27/politics/intel-community-covid-origins/index.html">reportedly, the CIA</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514093/original/file-20230308-16-awr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514093/original/file-20230308-16-awr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514093/original/file-20230308-16-awr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514093/original/file-20230308-16-awr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514093/original/file-20230308-16-awr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514093/original/file-20230308-16-awr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514093/original/file-20230308-16-awr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Wuhan seafood market that many scientists believe was the epicentre of the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dake Kang/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Why is intelligence conflicting?</h2>
<p>This lack of consensus among intelligence agencies and low levels of confidence on their assessments are due to many factors. </p>
<p>The variations in analytical judgements are mostly due to how each agency interprets what are, at best, fragmented intelligence sources. There’s also the question of how intelligence analysts comprehend complicated scientific research. </p>
<p>Several <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715">scientific studies</a> that examined environmental testing for COVID at the live animal and seafood market in Wuhan and early patient cases living nearby have provided strong evidence of a natural transmission of the virus. That is, the scientific evidence leads to the market as the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8">probable epicentre of the epidemic</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-covid-lab-leak-theory-is-dead-heres-how-we-know-the-virus-came-from-a-wuhan-market-188163">The COVID lab leak theory is dead. Here's how we know the virus came from a Wuhan market</a>
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<p>Yet, the scientific and epidemiological data itself is also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/26/science/covid-virus-wuhan-origins.html">incomplete</a>. In particular, analysts haven’t identified which animal the virus likely “jumped from” to infect humans. More genetic data and a better understanding of how coronaviruses are transmitted naturally are required to fill the information gaps, notably in the initial cases in Wuhan.</p>
<p>According to US officials, Beijing has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-covid-origins-lab-leak-bc0a2eda898c22219e57921ac700d4ec">not been willing to provide</a> full access to data requests from Western governments – or to the World Health Organization.</p>
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<h2>What needs to change before the next pandemic</h2>
<p>The Department of Energy report highlights an even greater issue that has received less attention. The US intelligence community and its other “Five Eyes” partners (Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and New Zealand) must improve their intelligence collection methods and analysis of health security threats and dangers, including from potential pandemics.</p>
<p>Four things will help improve the capabilities of the intelligence community and hopefully bring greater confidence in their assessments of the causes of future health emergencies and pandemics.</p>
<p><strong>1. Better health intelligence collection and analysis</strong></p>
<p>As pandemics become more frequent, our intelligence agencies need better risk, threat and hazard assessment methodologies to drive more robust, evidence-based collection and analysis of intelligence. </p>
<p>This means improving ways to combine traditional intelligence sources (often qualitative in nature) with scientific evidence to better assess the potential intent, capability and impact of threats and health hazards.</p>
<p><strong>2. Fostering stronger ties with the scientific community</strong></p>
<p>The intricacy of future pandemic threats and possible weaponisation of biotechnology will require intelligence agencies to foster a more purposeful and consistent interaction with the scientific community. </p>
<p>The US intelligence community has a track record here, but it and other Five Eyes countries will require even more strategic, coordinated outreach from the relatively closed intelligence world to the scientific community. </p>
<p>Greater workforce expertise in microbiology, genetics, virology and public health is also required within the intelligence community.</p>
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<p><strong>3. Creating a robust national health security strategy</strong></p>
<p>Each agency cannot feasibly develop the capabilities to improve its intelligence collection and analysis on its own. A whole-of-government approach is required to iron out each agency’s roles, functions and mandates for future health security risks. </p>
<p>We advocate for a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340850814_Intelligence_and_National_Security_Improving_'Five_Eyes'_health_security_intelligence_capabilities_leadership_and_governance_challenges_Improving_'Five_Eyes'_health_security_intelligence_capabilities_">national health security strategy</a>, much like the national cybersecurity strategies in each Five Eyes country, to improve governance and coordination across intelligence agencies in the health security space. </p>
<p><strong>4. Conducting a 9/11 commission-style review</strong></p>
<p>Lastly, to develop stronger post-COVID national health security measures, we need full independent reviews of how the intelligence community and key public health agencies worked throughout the pandemic in the US and its allies. </p>
<p>Such reviews could include what was done well and lessons to be learned that can be fed into national health security strategies. </p>
<p>Ideally, a review would also examine any evidence of politicising intelligence. Politics have always influenced intelligence gathering and analysis, not just during COVID.</p>
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<p>For example, the assessment of whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 shows how politics can negatively affect the ability of intelligence agencies to provide independent, non-biased advice to policy makers. </p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/3883819-the-time-has-come-for-a-9-11-like-commission-on-covid-19/">calls</a> for the equivalent of a 9/11 commission into COVID so far have not gone anywhere in Washington. It is not too late for such a review to take place. But realistically, given the fractured political climate in the US, the possibility of establishing an independent commission seems more difficult than in the other Five Eyes countries. </p>
<p>What this means is that we’re missing an opportunity to improve our intelligence agencies, which is acutely needed before the next global pandemic event.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-getting-harder-for-scientists-to-collaborate-across-borders-thats-bad-when-the-world-faces-global-problems-like-pandemics-and-climate-change-184800">It's getting harder for scientists to collaborate across borders – that's bad when the world faces global problems like pandemics and climate change</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Without a review of what went wrong with intelligence gathering and analysis during the pandemic, we’re missing a golden opportunity to improve our intelligence agencies.Patrick F Walsh, Professor Intelligence and Security Studies, Charles Sturt UniversityAusma Bernot, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2003862023-02-24T11:29:29Z2023-02-24T11:29:29ZSouth Africa’s intelligence agency needs speedy reform - or it must be shut down<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512012/original/file-20230223-2271-8qc43o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mondli Gungubele, former minister in the Presidency, was in charge of intelligence.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Siyabulela Duga/GCIS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/intelligence-white-paper">civilian intelligence service</a>, the State Security Agency, is a broken institution. It is meant to provide intelligence to forewarn the country about national security threats. </p>
<p>Powerful individuals aligned to former president <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/profiles/president-jacob-zuma-0">Jacob Zuma</a>, presumably at his behest, repurposed the institution to help him maintain his grip on <a href="http://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">power</a>. It was one of many institutions that were repurposed for improper personal or political gain during his tenure (May 2009 to February 2018): a process that has become known as <a href="http://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">state capture</a>. </p>
<p>His successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa, <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/10/24/ramaphosa-vows-to-overhaul-ssa-as-per-zondo-commission-recommendations">promised</a> in 2022 to reform the agency so it would serve its original mission. He committed to returning it to the pre-2009 era of having separate domestic and foreign branches, each led by its own director-general. </p>
<p>This decision is a major positive development. The Zuma administration <a href="http://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">merged the two branches</a> and abused the centralised model to protect the president from criticism. </p>
<p>Dismantling this architecture of abuse is happening too slowly, however, with no transitional plan having been announced publicly. Such a plan should include appointing interim heads for the domestic and foreign branches, rather than relying on people in acting positions. The government’s underestimation of the time needed to restructure the intelligence agency could have potentially serious, even dangerous, consequences. </p>
<h2>What went wrong</h2>
<p>The government under Zuma established the State Security Agency in 2009 as an <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/merger-of-spy-agencies-led-to-cabinet-ministers-giving-ssa-operatives-illegal-instructions-20210915">amalgamation</a> of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Intelligence_Agency_(South_Africa)">National Intelligence Agency</a>, the domestic intelligence service, and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_Secret_Service">South African Secret Service</a>, the foreign service.</p>
<p>At that stage, the directors general and other intelligence entities <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LCm2Ds5V0I">reported directly</a> to the Minister of Intelligence. A coordinating mechanism ensured overall coherence. But in 2021 Ramaphosa <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/ramaphosa-does-away-with-intelligence-ministry-ssa-to-report-directly-to-him-20210805">dissolved</a> the ministry. The agency now reports to the Minister in the Presidency.</p>
<p>The intelligence agency during the Zuma era concentrated too much power in one entity, specifically a super director-general. Hence, it took very little to capture the entire entity for abusive purposes. Officials loyal to the former president used this merged structure to turn the agency into a <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency-9-mar-2019-0000">protective service</a> for him and those close to him politically.</p>
<p>Testimony before the state capture commission showed how the agency’s resources were <a href="http://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">used</a> to improve the fortunes of the governing African National Congress under Zuma’s leadership, by providing his supporters with resources to campaign on his behalf. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zumas-abuse-of-south-africas-spy-agency-underscores-need-for-strong-civilian-oversight-154439">Zuma's abuse of South Africa's spy agency underscores need for strong civilian oversight</a>
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<p>Despite his administration’s stated objective of integrating the two services, they continued to operate on separate tracks. In fact, the merger <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency-9-mar-2019-0000">eroded</a> the very essence of the intelligence mandate – of forewarning the state of national security threats. The failure of intelligence ahead of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-deadly-july-2021-riots-may-recur-if-theres-no-change-186397">July 2021 riots</a> is a glaring example.</p>
<p>During the Zuma years, the focus on protecting the president led to the intelligence agency <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency-9-mar-2019-0000">prioritising</a> domestic intelligence by spying on citizens at the expense of foreign intelligence. Officials with ill intent also undermined the agency’s intelligence gathering <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency-9-mar-2019-0000">capacity</a>.</p>
<h2>The plan to fix it</h2>
<p>Following Ramaphosa’s promises, then Minister in the Presidency Mondli Gungubele had <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-mondli-gungubele-state-nation-address-debate-14-feb-2023-0000">committed the presidency</a> to ongoing reforms.</p>
<p>He highlighted the unbundling into foreign and domestic branches. This was one of the key recommendations of the 2018 High-Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency-9-mar-2019-0000">report</a>. </p>
<p>This would be done through an intelligence laws amendment bill that the intelligence agency intends to introduce to parliament by the end of the current financial year.</p>
<p>This was not the first time Gungubele had made this promise. He did so in May 2022, <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/address-minister-presidency-responsible-state-security%2C-mondli-gungubele%2C-occasion-2022-23-budget-vote-debate%2C-parliament%2C-cape-town">saying</a> that the bill had been finalised and would be submitted to parliament in September of that year. So it should surprise no one if the new timeline isn’t followed once again.</p>
<p>A new bill should ensure that the new heads of domestic and foreign intelligence have more discretionary power, reducing the power of the director-general. Doing so should make it more likely that this person will confine themselves to an oversight role rather than becoming involved in operational matters.</p>
<h2>The problem with the plan</h2>
<p>The fact that the State Security Agency has been absorbed into the presidency – which is also <a href="https://salaamedia.com/2023/02/19/analysis-ramaphosa-is-building-a-super-presidency-while-ministers-sit-at-home/">accumulating</a> other government entities and functions – could be a gift to any president intent on repeating the abuses of the Zuma administration.</p>
<p>One of the biggest dangers is a delay in appointing leaders of the domestic and foreign intelligence branches. They need direction. The head of the foreign branch was <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/security/national-security/mcbride-suspended-as-ssa-foreign-branch-head/">suspended</a> in July 2021 and the head of the domestic branch <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/ssa-without-a-head-of-domestic-intelligence-after-mahlodi-sam-muofhe-leaves-20210804">left</a> after his contract expired at the end of the same month.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-provides-fertile-ground-for-funders-of-terrorism-heres-why-194282">South Africa provides fertile ground for funders of terrorism. Here's why</a>
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<p>The agency told me that they cannot appoint permanent heads until the bill to restructure the agency becomes a law, and its disestablishment is complete.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/b25a-2011-130416a.pdf">2011 bill</a> that established the amalgamated agency took <a href="https://pmg.org.za/bill/184/">20 months</a> to be signed into law. It would make sense to have a transitional plan, appointing individuals on two-year contracts.</p>
<p>The Zuma administration was characterised by many <a href="https://www.ru.ac.za/perspective/2013archive/zumathekingofacting.html">acting appointments</a> in key positions across government, including the State Security Agency and the <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/zuma-to-appoint-npa-head-by-end-of-august-20150429">National Prosecuting Authority</a>. Relying so heavily on acting appointments weakened the government structures, to enable state capture.</p>
<p>People in acting positions are unable to take strong positions as they lack the security of tenure to do so. But the domestic and foreign branches need strong positions to safeguard South Africa’s security and stability.</p>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>The result of an intelligence service that is not fit for purpose is that the country is vulnerable to security threats from within and without. South Africans are living with the disastrous consequences – such as <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-09-21-south-africas-organised-crime-climbs-to-italys-levels-racing-past-mexico-somalia-and-libya/">rising organised crime</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sandton-terror-alert-time-for-south-africa-to-improve-its-intelligence-sharing-channels-with-the-us-194542">Sandton terror alert: time for South Africa to improve its intelligence sharing channels with the US</a>
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<p>Going back to separate foreign and domestic services is the last chance civilian intelligence has to re-establish its credibility. </p>
<p>The current round of restructuring the State Security Agency cannot fail. If it does it will have to be shut down and restarted from scratch. </p>
<p>The South American country Colombia did just that. In 2011, the government there <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/colombias-troubled-intelligence-agency-shuttered/2011/11/28/gIQA7mnzTO_story.html">shut down</a> the Administrative Department of Security (DAS), after it went rogue and engaged in criminal activities under the guise of fighting the war on drugs. </p>
<p>Unless the Ramaphosa administration expedites the State Security Agency’s restructuring, then the Colombian option will be the only one that makes sense for the agency. </p>
<p>*This story has been updated to reflect that Mondli Gungubele has since been appointed as Communications Minister in the SA cabinet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:jane.duncan@glasgow.ac.uk">jane.duncan@glasgow.ac.uk</a> receives funding from the British Academy and Luminate.</span></em></p>Having an intelligence service that is not fit for purpose means the country is vulnerable to security threats from within and outside the country.Jane Duncan, Professor of Digital Society, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999182023-02-14T18:24:57Z2023-02-14T18:24:57ZSpy balloons: modern technology has given these old-fashioned eyes in the sky a new lease of life<p>The US military has now <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64632378">shot down four high-altitude objects</a> that had entered American and Canadian airspace, raising questions about their purpose and origin.</p>
<p>The first of these objects, a Chinese balloon, was downed by a fighter jet on 4 February. While China says it was for weather monitoring, US officials say it was being used for surveillance. A knowledge of technology in this area throws up some clues about what may have been going on.</p>
<p>The balloon is believed to have supported a signals intelligence collection payload, although this has yet to be confirmed. Debris has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/13/biden-ufo-shot-down-michigan-flying-objects">now been retrieved</a> from US territorial waters off the coast of South Carolina and will be transported ashore for analysis. </p>
<p>A further three objects were downed between February 10 and 12 over Deadhorse in Alaska, near Yukon in Canada and over Lake Huron close to the US-Canada border.</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signals_intelligence">Signals intelligence, or “sigint”</a>, refers to electronic data, which could consist of conversations, written messages or data from weapons or radar systems. Sigint is normally collected by satellites, but can also be gathered from aircraft flying in international airspace.</p>
<p>Normally, satellites that collect sigint are positioned in <a href="https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Types_of_orbits">low-Earth orbit (LEO)</a> – say at 500 to 1,000km altitude – or at geostationary orbit, at the much higher altitude of 36,000km. Although the collection of this type of intelligence by satellites is efficient and reasonably effective, there are some limitations. </p>
<p>A satellite in LEO will complete an orbit around the Earth in 70 to 100 minutes but it will not pass the same point on the Earth again for 14 to 20 hours depending on its altitude. This is because our planet is also moving. Even then, it will only be visible to a point on Earth for a maximum of 20 minutes; which is called its “dwell time”. Increasing the number of satellites helps, but there will still be large time gaps in coverage. </p>
<p>In theory, a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostationary_orbit">geostationary satellite</a> could have a permanent dwell time. But, because it is positioned at around 36,000km from the Earth’s surface, it could miss the collection of important but weak signals. </p>
<p>The US military has been developing signals – electronic data transmissions – with a low probability of intercept. This is making sigint collection by both Chinese and Russian spy satellites difficult. There will be large gaps in a 24-hour period when collection is not possible – a silent time. </p>
<p>China has attempted to close the gaps. In 2020, the country launched, to a 600km orbit, <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-launches-latest-trio-of-yaogan-30-remote-sensing-satellites/">three new reconnaissance (spy) satellites</a> from the Yaogan-30 series, as part of a wider network, or “constellation”, called <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=2020-021C">Chuangxin-5 (CX-5)</a>, bringing the number of satellites in the network to 21.</p>
<h2>Steering ability</h2>
<p>Enter the high-altitude “objects” that have been shot down over the US. Let’s take the balloon that was shot down on February 4. By tracing this object’s path over the US, it can be seen to have passed several highly sensitive defence installations, including silos for nuclear-capable <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intercontinental_ballistic_missile">intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)</a> in Montana, US. </p>
<p>The balloon travelled across the US at an altitude of 20 to 30km and had the ability to steer in the upper atmosphere jet streams. Clearly, the advantage for sigint collection was that its dwell time was likely to be several hours, and its closeness to the surface of the Earth ensured that it could, if it were spying, collect very weak signals. </p>
<p>Thus, a balloon that can remain undetected would be an ideal platform to augment the collection of sigint by both satellites and aircraft. Many countries have been employing balloons for intelligence gathering for <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-spy-balloon-inflatable-eyes-in-the-sky-have-been-used-in-war-for-centuries-199268">at least 200 years</a>, so the idea is not new and the advantages are well known.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-spy-balloon-inflatable-eyes-in-the-sky-have-been-used-in-war-for-centuries-199268">China's spy balloon: inflatable eyes in the sky have been used in war for centuries</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The E-3 Sentry" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510115/original/file-20230214-28-5ecehz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510115/original/file-20230214-28-5ecehz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510115/original/file-20230214-28-5ecehz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510115/original/file-20230214-28-5ecehz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510115/original/file-20230214-28-5ecehz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510115/original/file-20230214-28-5ecehz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510115/original/file-20230214-28-5ecehz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The E-3 Sentry is an airborne warning and control system, or AWACS, aircraft. Planes like this form a vital component of US air defences.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104504/e-3-sentry-awacs/">US Air Force</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Today’s technologies have given this method of intelligence collection a new lease of life, as we’ve also seen from the use of small aerial vehicles – or “micro drones”. Remaining undetected for a significant period is a key requirement to success. As to how this was possible in the US is an interesting question, given that the country has one of the best air defence systems anywhere. </p>
<p>One possible answer lies in the design of ground-based and airborne early warning system (AEW) radars. To reduce clutter on the radar, objects that are static such as mountains and towers are removed from the radar returns by making use of a natural effect known as “Doppler shift”. When a train travels past you, the pitch of its whistle seems to change as it moves away from you. This is an everyday demonstration of the Doppler shift in sound waves.</p>
<p>The Doppler capability is common to all defence radars as they are focused on an aircraft and missile threat. A balloon or inflatable object, could be travelling at a velocity slower than the Doppler threshold and thus remain undetected. </p>
<h2>Radar clutter</h2>
<p>This shortfall in detection capability was recognised by <a href="https://www.norad.mil">NORAD (North American Air Defense Command)</a> and radars have been reset to see very low velocity objects. However, the clutter will increase –- perhaps fulfilling one of China’s aims to reduce the effectiveness of air defence radars. </p>
<p>A further difficulty with detection is the material used for balloons or objects. Plastics and synthetic inflation fabrics have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/materials-science/radar-absorbing-material">no or very low radar reflectivity</a>, thus adding another notch to their covert credentials. The balloon that started the current controversy in the US was first discovered visually and reported, rather than detected by air defence systems.</p>
<p>But the more recent discoveries over Canada and Alaska resulted from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html">high-intensity surveillance</a>. It has not yet been revealed what they are. Once that has been ascertained, the key question will be whether the objects were designed to penetrate the US defence system to gather better signals intelligence, or whether they were a test of US air defence systems.</p>
<p>It could, alternatively, be just a nuisance ploy. We shall know when the results of the balloon debris analysis are made known.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Stupples does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Balloons can still be useful for gathering intelligence when used alongside satellites and aircraft.David Stupples, Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering and Director of Electronic Warfare Research, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.