tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/katters-australian-party-14450/articlesKatter's Australian Party – The Conversation2022-04-11T19:57:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795672022-04-11T19:57:26Z2022-04-11T19:57:26ZPopulism and the federal election: what can we expect from Hanson, Palmer, Lambie and Katter?<p>Populist politicians have been household names in Australian politics over the past decade, from Pauline Hanson to Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and Jacqui Lambie. </p>
<p>They tend to only get a small amount of the popular vote – between them, at the last election, they attracted 7% of first preferences in the House of Representatives and 8.32% of the Senate vote. Yet they can play a big role on the Senate crossbench and can get significant concessions regarding their pet issues.</p>
<p>They can also change the tenor of politics in Australia, and the way their preferences fall - or how they spend their advertising dollars - can make or break close electoral races.</p>
<p>But where do these populist parties – who all <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">claim to speak for “the people” against “the elite”</a> – sit as we begin the 2022 federal election? </p>
<h2>Who are the main players to watch out for?</h2>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Jacqui Lambie Network are all fielding candidates in the upper and lower house elections. </p>
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<img alt="Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie in the senate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie say on senate crossbench together during the last parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, two of these parties have sought to capitalise on anti-vaccination and anti-COVID vaccine mandate sentiments. </p>
<p>The United Australia Party has made this its core - maybe even single - issue. As you have surely seen on those yellow billboards, the party is promising “freedom” from the COVID restrictions and mandates of the past years. Meanwhile, party leader (and former Liberal MP) <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-craig-kellys-defection-leaves-government-with-razor-thin-majority-155897">Craig Kelly</a> spruiks <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013587.pub2/full">hydroxychloroquine</a>) and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ivermectin-is-a-nobel-prize-winning-wonder-drug-but-not-for-covid-19-168449">ivermectin</a> as COVID treatments, despite evidence showing they’re not effective.</p>
<p>He is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">tipped to spend</a> A$70 million on the campaign. In 2019, Palmer spent a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">record $84 million</a> without winning a seat, but claimed his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-2019-clive-palmer-says-uap-ads-gave-coalition-win/11128160">anti-Shorten ads</a> “shifted” voters away from Labor. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-spot-if-someone-is-trying-to-mislead-you-when-it-comes-to-science-138814">5 ways to spot if someone is trying to mislead you when it comes to science</a>
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<p>One Nation has also tried to capitalise on the anti-vaccination movement’s prominence. While it is pushing its usual anti-immigration talking points, it has supplemented these with anti-mandate messaging, with Hanson and senator Malcolm Roberts appearing at anti-vaccine rallies in Canberra.</p>
<p>The other two populist parties are relying on their regional appeal.</p>
<p>The Jacqui Lambie Network is hoping to extend the former independent’s appeal more widely across Tasmania. The party’s message is all about making life better for the “underdog” – combining an anti-corruption message with campaigns for better healthcare, education and opportunities for young people and workers in Tasmania.</p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party, meanwhile, portrays on a division between “the people” of rural Australia (particularly Far North Queensland) and the distant “elite” of Canberra and the big cities. As usual, it will be focusing on regional development, agricultural subsidies and ensuring FNQ gets fair treatment.</p>
<h2>What has changed since 2019?</h2>
<p>Coronavirus has markedly shifted the political, social and economic landscape since the last federal election.</p>
<p>Australia’s closed borders for much of 2020 and 2021 has made the anti-immigration position of One Nation less salient and effective, so it is no wonder they have pivoted to an anti-COVID mandate position to try and extend their appeal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-curtains-for-clive-what-covid-means-for-populism-in-australia-153101">Is it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia </a>
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<p>Meanwhile, the United Australia Party has completely rebuilt itself around the issue, moving from its almost singularly “Stop Bill Shorten” message in 2019.</p>
<p>Beyond this, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-government-misunderstands-the-role-of-the-public-service-130796">repeated rorts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-government-faces-battle-over-integrity-commission-it-doesnt-really-want-169473">integrity scandals</a> during the Morrison government have given fuel to populists (as well as numerous independent candidates) to push for more transparency in politics.</p>
<h2>What are the key races to watch?</h2>
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<img alt="Clive Palmer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer is vying to re-enter federal parliament as a Queensland senator.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Other than Katter, who has held the seat of Kennedy since 1993, it is highly unlikely populist parties are going to have any success in the House of Representatives (despite the United Australia Party’s <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/fastest-growing-political-party-in-australian-history/">claim</a> Kelly will be the next prime minister). </p>
<p>The Senate is where things will be interesting. The Queensland senate race is the big one for populists, with the two most prominent populist politicians in the country - Hanson and Palmer - running for what will likely be the sixth seat in the state. They also face competition from former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (running for the Liberal Democrats this time around).</p>
<p>The final seat in some other states will also be worth watching. In Tasmania, the Jacqui Lambie Network is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/from-lambies-loud-girl-to-ericmentum-tasmanias-fierce-senate-race-is-a-taste-of-whats-to-come">throwing its resources</a> behind the campaign of Tammy Tyrell, their lead Senate candidate. Tyrell is a long-time office manager and advisor to Lambie (who is not up for re-election this time). </p>
<p>The Tasmanian Senate contest could see either see Liberal Eric Abetz, Tyrell, the United Australia Party or newcomers the Local Party take the seat. There’s also a very slim (but possible) chance One Nation or United Australia Party could win the sixth seat in New South Wales and Western Australia.</p>
<h2>What are the key unknowns?</h2>
<p>There are two big questions about populism in 2022. </p>
<p>First, has the political potency of the anti-vaccination/anti-lockdown message passed? As we enter the so-called era of “COVID-normal”, where restrictions are wound back and lockdowns are supposedly a thing of the past, it is unclear whether the United Australia Party and One Nation have backed the right horse at the right time.</p>
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<img alt="Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bob Katter (pictured here with Pauline Hanson) has stepped down as leader of his party, but is re-contesting the seat he has held for almost 30 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Second, are voters sick of the mainstream parties, or sick of the Morrison government? Populists prosper when there is a widespread sense of political malaise, but time will tell if they want to punish the political class in general, thus leading to a populist upswing, or the Morrison government specifically – in which we can expect much of that frustration to filter to a vote for Labor and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wentworth-project-polling-shows-voters-prefer-albanese-for-pm-and-put-climate-issue-first-in-teal-battle-179839">“teal” independents</a>.</p>
<p>Whether this is going to be a good election for populist parties in Australia remains to be seen: stay tuned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Moffitt receives funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funding scheme and from the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.</span></em></p>Clive Palmer is back trying to win a Senate seat, while Jacqui Lambie is aiming to get a second senator elected.Benjamin Moffitt, Associate Professor, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1790282022-03-13T19:16:43Z2022-03-13T19:16:43ZResearch shows voters favour financial relief after disasters, but we need climate action too<p>Within two months, Australians will vote in a federal election. It comes after a political term marked by major societal challenges, including catastrophic drought, bushfires and floods.</p>
<p>Such natural hazards are expected to become worse under climate change. So how does a person’s experience of disasters affect the way they vote?</p>
<p>This is the question I set out to answer in my <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1ejrV3Qu6uX-0X">new research</a> into the last federal election. I found when people experienced drought, they tended to place more importance on economic security, not environmental policies, in deciding how to vote.</p>
<p>Crucially, on election day this translated to more votes for micro-parties and fewer votes for the incumbent Coalition. The findings may provide insight into how the current floods in southeastern Australia will influence the next election. </p>
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<img alt="two men talk in dry field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison talking to a drought-affected farmer. Such voters often prioritise economic security.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan PeledAAP</span></span>
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<h2>Cast your mind back</h2>
<p>Heading into the May 2019 election, much of Australia was gripped by heatwaves and drought. </p>
<p>The four months to April had been the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20190503.archive.shtml">hottest period</a> on record.
Dams were low and <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/abares/products/insights/2018-drought-analysis">farmers</a> were barely getting by.</p>
<p>The parched Murray–Darling Basin had experienced mass <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-wrote-the-report-for-the-minister-on-fish-deaths-in-the-lower-darling-heres-why-it-could-happen-again-115063">fish kills</a> and nationally, rainfall in Australia that year would be 40% below average, the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs70.pdf">lowest</a> on record.</p>
<p>In light of these conditions, political parties and candidates took drastically different drought strategies to the election.</p>
<p>Labor and the Greens promised significant cuts to Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, to varying degrees. Labor also <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/about/national-platform">pledged</a> to promote renewable energy and offered farmers climate adaption programs, and the Greens <a href="https://greens.org.au/policies/agriculture">promised</a> to help farmers implement sustainable agricultural systems.</p>
<p>In contrast, the Liberal-National government largely <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/our-plan-supporting-far%20mers-drought">offered</a> economic relief for rural communities, rather than pledging to mitigate climate change and future drought.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/just-because-both-sides-support-drought-relief-doesnt-mean-its-right-121744">Just because both sides support drought relief, doesn’t mean it's right</a>
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<p>Various micro-parties largely favoured the Coalition’s compensation approach. But importantly, they also tended to advocate strongly for local measures. </p>
<p>For example, Katter’s Australian Party <a href="https://www.kap.org.au/project/financial-assistance-grants">agitated</a> for more money to local councils. One Nation <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/farming-and-water">said</a> Australia should withdraw from international climate agreements and advocated for greater local ownership of water resources.</p>
<p>Research shows a local experience of abnormal weather tends to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab466a">increase</a> public belief in climate change, as does <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02900-5">low rainfall</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2020.25">In some cases</a>, extreme weather events lead to support for “green” policies and politicians. And incumbent governments that fail to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0735-2166.2006.00258.x">prepare for or remedy</a> harm from disasters can do worse in elections.</p>
<p>But belief in climate change does not always translate into political support for climate action. For example, previous research has shown how after a natural disaster, voters in the United States <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990104">favour politicians</a> who offer disaster relief spending over those who invest in disaster preparedness.</p>
<p>I wanted to discover whether the same dynamic played out in Australia. Specifically, how did voters affected by drought in 2019 change their voting patterns compared with the drought-free 2016 election?</p>
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<img alt="man in hat stands behind counter with two women" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In 2019, micro-party candidates such as Bob Katter promised voters economic relief and strong local advocacy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>What I found</h2>
<p>My research drew on the Australian Election Study’s first ever <a href="https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.26193/C2QIYA">panel survey</a> of Australian voters. The study surveyed the same 968 participants after both the 2016 and 2019 elections. </p>
<p>By matching the participants’ postcodes with rainfall maps from the Bureau of Meteorology, I separated voters into those who were impacted by drought in 2019, and those who were not.</p>
<p>I found that if voters experienced drought, they placed more importance on the management of the economy and government debt when deciding how to vote. In addition, counter to my expectations, they placed less importance on the environment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-tone-deaf-leadership-is-the-last-thing-traumatised-flood-victims-need-here-are-two-ways-he-can-do-better-178984">Scott Morrison's tone-deaf leadership is the last thing traumatised flood victims need. Here are two ways he can do better</a>
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<p>The Coalition is traditionally seen as better at economic management than other parties. And as the incumbents, the Coalition could credibly promise drought compensation and relief to Australians. </p>
<p>But this apparent advantage did not translate into voting patterns in 2019.</p>
<p>Compared with the 2016 election, the Coalition lost votes in drought-affected areas. I calculated that drought decreased first-preference vote share by 3% in the House of Representatives and 1.6% in the Senate, across 7,443 national polling places. </p>
<p>Support for local micro-parties in drought-exposed areas increased by almost 5%. Drought did not significantly impact the vote share of Labor or the Greens. </p>
<p>I looked for reasons, other than the drought, which might explain the trend.
These included a region’s employment profile and population density, climate scepticism, and rates of political disaffection such as the number of blank ballots cast. </p>
<p>But the voting patterns remained consistent across these variables.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="middle aged man and women walk holding hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A lot changed for the Liberal-Nationals between 2016 and 2019, including a fall in the party’s vote share in drought-affected areas. Pictured: Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce with then-wife Natalie in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Balancing short and long horizons</h2>
<p>So while drought-hit voters at the 2019 election were worried about economic security, they did not reward the Coalition for its promises of economic relief. Instead, they favoured smaller parties that emphasised both economic security and strong local leadership. </p>
<p>Minor party support may indeed bring local economic benefits. For example, analysis <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/grants-with-ministerial-discretion/">has found</a> since 2013, electorates represented by independents or minor parties received the most per-capita funding from national grant programs with ministerial discretion.</p>
<p>My research suggests in the aftermath of a natural disaster, voters place higher importance on economic security than climate solutions.</p>
<p>Yet, prioritising relief and recovery, without disaster prevention and preparation, is highly detrimental in the long run.</p>
<p>Climate change threatens to supercharge both droughts and heavy rain which leads to floods. And as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-ipcc-report-shows-australia-is-at-real-risk-from-climate-change-with-impacts-worsening-future-risks-high-and-wide-ranging-adaptation-needed-176691">latest report</a> by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows, Australia is on the frontline of these worsening disasters.</p>
<p>So what does all this mean for politicians and parties wanting to tackle climate change?</p>
<p>My research suggests they should pursue policies that not only reduce emissions and protect Australians from the effects of an unstable climate, but bring immediate and tangible economic benefits.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weather-forecasts-wont-save-us-we-must-pre-empt-monster-floods-years-before-they-hit-178767">Weather forecasts won't save us – we must pre-empt monster floods years before they hit</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179028/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Melville-Rea is affiliated with independent think tank the Australia Institute. </span></em></p>The findings indicates natural disasters such as the current floods in southeastern Australia can influence election results.Hannah Melville-Rea, Research Fellow, Environmental Arts & Humanities, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1475622020-10-15T19:09:33Z2020-10-15T19:09:33ZMeet North Queensland First, the party that wants to kill crocs and form a new state<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362876/original/file-20201012-14-1sv0eki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many of the minor parties vying for votes in the Queensland election will already be very familiar to Australians. </p>
<p>But Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer and the Katters are not the only minor party players worth watching in the lead up to October 31. </p>
<p>A new party has recently emerged in northern Queensland, with crocodiles and the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/preview">balance of power</a> on its mind. </p>
<p>It is also a prime example of how issues in northern Queensland can vary wildly from those in the south. </p>
<h2>North Queensland First</h2>
<p>North Queensland First was set up in October 2019 by member for Whitsunday, Jason Costigan. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Jason Costigan speaking in the Queensland Parliament." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362873/original/file-20201012-14-fo3bdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362873/original/file-20201012-14-fo3bdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362873/original/file-20201012-14-fo3bdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362873/original/file-20201012-14-fo3bdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362873/original/file-20201012-14-fo3bdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362873/original/file-20201012-14-fo3bdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362873/original/file-20201012-14-fo3bdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Jason Costigan has been the member for Whitsunday since 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Hunt/ AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Costigan was expelled from the Liberal National Party earlier last year, following harassment <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-won-t-apologise-for-kicking-mp-out-over-withdrawn-harassment-claims-20200415-p54jzd.html">allegations</a> (the woman who made the complaint has since <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-15/lnp-harassment-claim-withdrawn-jason-costigan-whitsundays-mp/12149892">withdrawn it</a> and apologised). </p>
<p>NQ First is aimed at appealing to voters disillusioned with the major parties. It lists establishing a <a href="https://www.nqfirst.com.au/our-party/">separate state</a> of “North Queensland” among its primary aims and is promoting itself as a possible balance of power holder. </p>
<h2>North Queensland’s history of feeling separate</h2>
<p>The north Queensland <a href="https://www.qhatlas.com.au/content/secession-movements">separatist movement</a> has a long history and separation remains a <a href="https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/townsville/state-mps-to-be-welcomed-with-ruckus-from-nq-separatists/news-story/40b2e551e66863b7c47408b5d57c84ac">popular cause</a> in the region. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remember-quexit-5-reasons-you-should-not-take-your-eyes-off-the-queensland-election-146926">Remember Quexit? 5 reasons you should not take your eyes off the Queensland election</a>
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<p>Some north Queenslanders feel every inch of their distance from the state government in Brisbane: the notion of resources being extracted by a negligent, remote government has featured in northern politics for <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/JCULawRw/2014/6.html">over a century</a>. </p>
<p>Separatism was promoted by Palmer at the <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/clive-palmer-pushes-for-north-queensland-independence/">2013 federal election</a> and remains a <a href="https://www.kap.org.au/project/north-queensland-separate-state/">Katter’s Australian Party</a> policy. </p>
<h2>Croc killing</h2>
<p>That sense of remoteness also manifests itself in policies against crocodiles. <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/you-won-t-come-out-alive-katter-crocodile-plan-resurfaces-20180321-p4z5ha.html">Katter’s Australian Party</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/croc-safari-why-selling-licences-to-rich-hunters-isnt-fair-65151">Bob Katter himself</a> periodically make announcements about killing crocodiles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Saltwater crocodile swimming in a river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362881/original/file-20201012-21-13ha457.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362881/original/file-20201012-21-13ha457.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362881/original/file-20201012-21-13ha457.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362881/original/file-20201012-21-13ha457.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362881/original/file-20201012-21-13ha457.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362881/original/file-20201012-21-13ha457.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362881/original/file-20201012-21-13ha457.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Anti-crocodile policies are common in north Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Last last month, NQ First sought to establish its northern credentials by announcing a “<a href="https://jasoncostigan.com.au/media-release/nq-first-commits-to-croc-culling-under-shoot-to-kill-policy/">shoot to kill</a>” policy.</p>
<p>This “croc culling” polling has a focus on “public safety”, according to Costigan. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If there is a crocodile on one of our beaches in a populated area, perhaps a tourist spot or in a swimming hole or where workers are at risk of being attacked, it’ll be shot by a licensed contractor whose job it will be to go in and deal with the problem as a matter of urgency.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Do Costigan’s crocodile proposals make sense?</h2>
<p>Costigan’s policy was triggered by a September 23 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-25/saltwater-crocodile-bites-man-on-head-in-far-north-queensland-r/12701322">crocodile attack</a> on a snorkeler off Lizard Island. </p>
<p>By the time Costigan released his policy, that crocodile had <a href="https://www.des.qld.gov.au/our-department/news-media/mediareleases/crocodile-euthanised-at-lizard-island">already been euthanised</a> by government wildlife officers. The current Queensland government <a href="https://environment.des.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/87711/wl-mp-croc-manage-plan.pdf">crocodile management plan</a> allows for the removal of crocodiles located near centres of population or that attack humans. So, further legislation, as proposed by Costigan, would not speed up that process. </p>
<p>In fact, NQ First’s enthusiasm for killing more large crocodiles might be counterproductive and increase the number of crocodile attacks. </p>
<p>Crocodiles are territorial and when large crocodiles are removed, other crocodiles move in. When the crocodile hierarchy is disturbed, it <a href="https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/news/2017/09/a-huge-52-m-crocodile-has-been-shot-dead-in-queensland/">increases the risks</a> to humans and livestock.</p>
<h2>Why do politicians want to kill crocodiles?</h2>
<p>Northern Australia is <a href="https://bie.ala.org.au/species/urn:lsid:biodiversity.org.au:afd.taxon:989a7126-df02-4f1f-a21f-feca59662947">crocodile country</a>, and saltwater crocodiles are capable of killing and eating humans. Australian crocodiles have been <a href="https://www.qhatlas.com.au/crocodile-hunting">fully protected</a> from hunting since 1974 and populations have recovered from heavy hunting after the second world war.</p>
<p>But living with crocodiles can be frightening. Costigan’s press release described crocodiles as “maneaters” and “monsters”, playing on <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/explore/collection/highlights/val-plumwood-canoe">primal human fears</a>. </p>
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Read more:
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<p>Politicians talking tough about crocodiles are speaking to residents of northern Australia’s <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-4382-1_6">suburban frontier</a>, which is pressing into crocodile habitat as urban areas expand. Crocodile sightings and attacks <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WR/WR17011">are increasing</a> as more humans spend time in regions where crocodiles have always lived. </p>
<p>Politicians also target crocodiles because hunting — of other animals, particularly pigs — is popular in the north and big game hunting is big business. Australia still has a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14443058.2015.1052833">safari hunting industry</a>, which started by hunting crocodiles, but now targets other species.</p>
<p>Politicians promoting crocodile shooting appeal to a sense of <a href="https://journal.media-culture.org.au/index.php/mcjournal/article/view/1285">rugged Australian individualism</a> and environmental competence among their constituents. </p>
<p>However, the reality of legal crocodile hunting in Australia is very different. Safari hunting tends to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/croc-safari-why-selling-licences-to-rich-hunters-isnt-fair-65151">restricted to the wealthy</a>. </p>
<h2>Will being tough on crocodiles help Costigan?</h2>
<p>Costigan has been elected to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/whit/">seat of Whitsunday</a> three times before, but all three times he was a member of the LNP and only won by slender margins (in 2017 he won by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/whit">372 votes</a>). In 2020, he faces numerous challengers. </p>
<p>Both major parties are fielding candidates in Whitsunday, as are the Greens, One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party and the United Australia Party. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Palm trees and umbrellas on a beach in the Whitsunday Islands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362884/original/file-20201012-16-7vaqc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362884/original/file-20201012-16-7vaqc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362884/original/file-20201012-16-7vaqc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362884/original/file-20201012-16-7vaqc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362884/original/file-20201012-16-7vaqc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362884/original/file-20201012-16-7vaqc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362884/original/file-20201012-16-7vaqc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Costigan faces numerous challengers to be re-elected on October 31.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those last three parties are all vying to occupy similar populist territory to Costigan. </p>
<p>Whether suggesting crocodiles should be shot will help Costigan retain his seat remains to be seen. One danger is NQ First’s policy may in fact alienate tourist operators and residents who live off the crocodile’s back. </p>
<p>However, promising even a limited ability to “shoot to kill” crocodiles will still resonate with some north Queenslanders. </p>
<p>Indeed, with a high profile as the sitting member and the LNP struggling with internal divisions and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/lnp-crisis-as-deb-frecklington-referred-to-election-watchdog/12748400">questions about donations</a>, NQ First may well be part of the next Queensland parliament.</p>
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Read more:
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Brennan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some north Queenslanders feel every inch of their distance from the state government in Brisbane. A new party is hoping to tap into that sentiment.Claire Brennan, Lecturer in History, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469272020-10-04T18:55:31Z2020-10-04T18:55:31ZQueensland’s unpredictable election begins. Expect a close campaign focused on 3 questions<p>The Queensland election campaign officially begins this week, with the government entering <a href="https://www.forgov.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/procurement/pan-22-caretaker-conventions.pdf?v=1599437891">caretaker mode</a> on Tuesday, and the election set for <a href="https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/election-events/2020-state-general-election">October 31</a>. </p>
<p>But the crystal ball for this election, which will see a number of significant firsts, is frustratingly cloudy. </p>
<h2>Palaszczuk vs Frecklington</h2>
<p>This is the state’s first election for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-05/four-year-fixed-parliamentary-term-referendum-declared-yes-ecq/7299386">four-year fixed term</a> of parliament since 1893. It’s also the first occasion at which the leaders of the two major parties — Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Liberal-National Party’s (LNP) Deb Frecklington — are women.</p>
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<img alt="People voting at polling booths in school hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Queenslanders will be voting in a government for four years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, apart from August’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-election-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-the-answer-to-a-struggling-economy-144274">Northern Territory election</a>, Queensland’s poll will be the first major electoral test of any Australian jurisdiction since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>All of this makes the election extremely difficult to forecast, especially given the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/yougov-poll-queensland-labor-governments-vote-shrivels/news-story/04e693d3de28af07ec51dad6d4b58728">marked difference</a> in how voters rate the parties, as opposed to their leaders. </p>
<p>That’s before you throw in the pull of four significant minor parties and their unpredictable preference flows.</p>
<h2>A change of government is possible</h2>
<p>Even so, we might say Labor is Queensland’s “natural” party of government, given it has held office for 26 of the past 31 years, and for 70 of the past 105 years (since the birth of the modern party system).</p>
<p>This stands in sharp contrast to Queenslanders’ predilection to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">back conservative parties </a> at federal elections. In 2019, for example, the state <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm">swung toward</a> the Morrison-led Coalition at a rate about four times the Australian average.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland to all those #Quexiteers: don't judge, try to understand us</a>
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<p>Heading into the election, Labor holds a razor-thin buffer, with just 48 seats in the 93-seat parliament. A tiny after-preference <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Labor">swing of 0.7%</a> would see Labor lose two seats and its majority. </p>
<p>The LNP, currently on 38 seats, must win nine additional seats, via a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Liberal%20National">3.4% swing</a> to form majority government. </p>
<p>Ironically, that’s virtually identical to the <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/northern-territory-election-analysis-of-results/">3.5% swing</a> against the NT Labor government last month.</p>
<p>In June, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">YouGov</a> poll had the LNP in front of Labor, 52% to 48%, two-party preferred. In July, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">Newspoll</a> had the LNP ahead, 51% to 49%. </p>
<p>The implications are clear: victory for the LNP is eminently possible. </p>
<h2>A hung parliament is also on the cards</h2>
<p>With polls putting Labor’s primary vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">as low as 32%</a>, preferences will be crucial and minor parties will once again play a significant role. </p>
<p>Because of recently introduced <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-18/political-donations-capped-queensland-lnp-labor-laws-elections/12368128">election spending caps</a>, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is expected to walk away empty-handed. This comes after Palmer donated <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">almost $84 million</a> to his own campaign during the 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>But with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation likely to maintain its lone seat, Katter’s Australian Party its three, and the Greens almost certain to double their representation to two, a hung parliament – a repeat of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">2015-17 term</a> – is also a real possibility.</p>
<h2>Referendum on three questions</h2>
<p>For these reasons and more, the political eyes of Australia will be on Queensland on October 31. And it will invariably be a referendum on three questions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk has been premier since 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first is whom Queenslanders trust more as their premier for the next four years. </p>
<p>In late July, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-maintains-newspoll-lead-federally-and-in-queensland-bidens-lead-over-trump-narrows-144193">Newspoll found</a> 81% of those surveyed approved of Palaszczuk’s handling of the pandemic, with 57% preferring her as premier. Just 26% preferred Frecklington. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland opposition leader Deb Frecklington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deb Frecklington took over as opposition leader in December 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a late September, Newspoll saw a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/twothirds-of-queenslanders-back-annastacia-palaszczuk-as-state-election-looms/news-story/46b9fb24eb42bf41a50719db7f132094">marked dip</a> in Palaszczuk’s ratings, with 69% of respondents saying the premier was performing well over coronavirus. </p>
<h2>Health vs economy</h2>
<p>A second question is which public policy frame — public health or economic buoyancy — do Queenslanders rate more highly? This comes down to simple arithmetic. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">Did someone say 'election'?: how politics met pandemic to create 'fortress Queensland'</a>
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</em>
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<p>If those angry at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/05/queensland-to-enforce-hard-border-closure-with-nsw-and-act-from-saturday">hard border closures</a> and damaged hospitality, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/tourism-industry-warns-second-queensland-lockdown-would-break-our-spirit-20200727-p55fsu.html">tourism</a> and other small businesses outweigh those grateful for a government that has overseen just <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics">1,160 coronavirus cases</a> and six deaths, then Palaszczuk has a problem. </p>
<p>But with border and pub relaxations <a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qld-announces-immediate-easing-of-restrictions-as-road-map-to-normal-is-released/news-story/34a2f6de1243a54cfc3b7d1abaf7db98">introduced last week</a>, even that anger might be quelled by election day. </p>
<h2>COVID recovery</h2>
<p>If not, these concerns would be compounded by a third question: which party do Queenslanders trust more to navigate the state out of the COVID-19 economic quagmire? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hand sanitisers on a table at a polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland will be voting in the middle of a pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor has reason to feel secure here, despite state debt <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-07/queensland-treasurer-delivers-fiscal-budget-outlook-coronavirus/12628358">nearing $100 billion</a> and an <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP%2FLFR_SAFOUR%2FLFR_UnemploymentRate">unemployment rate</a> above the national average. In June, a YouGov poll found Labor enjoyed an <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/06/06/yougov-galaxy-52-48-lnp-queensland/">11 point lead</a> on the question of preferred economic managers. That figure alone has panicked LNP strategists. </p>
<p>But since then, the LNP has come out with economic guns blazing. It has re-embraced the <a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/new-bradfield-scheme-will-supercharge-the-north/">1930s Bradfield Scheme</a> — a largely debunked populist dream to divert northern rivers westward. More pragmatically, the LNP also launched a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-27/lnp-promises-33-billion-spend-on-15-year-bruce-highway-plan/12708342">$33 billion plan</a> to upgrade the entire Bruce Highway from Gympie to Cairns. </p>
<p>Given more than half the state’s seats are outside Greater Brisbane, this policy pays the sort of regional homage that wins elections in Queensland. </p>
<h2>The Prime Minister will be watching</h2>
<p>Beyond Queensland, who will be watching the Queensland poll most closely? </p>
<p>Morrison found his <a href="https://news.griffith.edu.au/2020/07/07/how-qld-delivered-scott-morrisons-miracle-election/">way back to government</a> last year via regional Queensland, which is now torn between border closures and economic survival. He will certainly be keeping a close eye on the contest, even if it is <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/queensland-government-finally-sets-date-for-opening-of-nsw-border--but-theres-a-catch-c-1359240">impossible</a> to visit in person.</p>
<p>There are just four weeks to go.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146927/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is a Research Associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation</span></em></p>As Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the LNP’s Deb Frecklington vie for Queenslanders’ votes, leadership, COVID and economic recovery are set to dominate debate.Paul Williams, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1016112018-08-15T07:49:24Z2018-08-15T07:49:24ZView from The Hill: A ray of bipartisan good comes out of obscure senator’s hate speech<p>Immigration has become one of the most divisive issues in Australian politics. It has created open fractures within government ranks and sparked dog whistling; it’s being exploited to nefarious political ends by fringe and not-so-fringe players.</p>
<p>But an appallingly racist diatribe, by a senator who not one in a thousand Australians would have heard of, on Wednesday brought almost all the parliament together to reassert some core values of Australia’s policy.</p>
<p>Delivering his <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F3cee6e8f-15b4-468c-91dd-05ded6631e43%2F0136%22">maiden speech</a> on Tuesday, Fraser Anning called for a ban on all further Muslim immigration and invoked the words “final solution” – the term referring to the Nazi extermination of millions of Jews – when calling for a popular vote on immigration.</p>
<p>Anning arrived in parliament by chance, replacing the equally controversial Malcolm Roberts from One Nation, who fell foul of the citizenship crisis. But Anning immediately <a href="https://theconversation.com/hanson-loses-replacement-senator-before-he-is-even-sworn-in-87355">parted ways with</a> One Nation, and has recently joined Katter’s Australian Party.</p>
<p>Among much else, the Queensland senator told parliament on Tuesday that “the one immigrant group here and in other Western nations that has consistently shown itself to be the least able to assimilate and integrate is Muslims”.</p>
<p>“The first terrorist act on Australian soil occurred in 1915 – when two Muslim immigrants opened fire on a picnic train of innocent women and children in Broken Hill – and Muslim immigrants have been a problem ever since.”</p>
<p>Such are the rituals of first speeches that many Coalition senators and even crossbencher Derryn Hinch (who has been beating up on himself publicly ever since) went over to pay Anning the traditional congratulations afterwards.</p>
<p>But after that reactions were quick, and by Wednesday morning condemnation was raining down on Anning from almost everywhere.</p>
<p>Labor with the support of the government moved a motion in the Senate and the House; the leaders in both houses spoke.</p>
<p>The motion, which did not mention Anning by name, acknowledged “the historic action of the Holt Government, with bipartisan support from the Australian Labor Party, in initiating the dismantling of the White Australia Policy”.</p>
<p>It gave “unambiguous and unqualified commitment to the principle that, whatever criteria are applied by Australian Governments in exercising their sovereign right to determine the composition of the immigration intake, race, faith or ethnic origin shall never, explicitly or implicitly, be among them”.</p>
<p>The motion was the same (except for the addition of the word “faith”) as the one prime minister Bob Hawke moved in 1988 after opposition leader John Howard had suggested a slowing of Asian immigration. Then, the Liberals <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-lost-art-of-crossing-the-floor-20060812-gdo5rd.html">voted against</a> the motion, though with three defections. </p>
<p>In our frequently depressing and often toxic political climate, Wednesday’s bipartisanship was a small but significant and encouraging moment of unity on what we stand for as a nation.</p>
<p>Senate leader Mathias Cormann, an immigrant from Belgium, said: “This chamber in many ways is a true reflection of what a great migrant nation we are.”</p>
<p>“We have … representatives of our Indigenous community. We have in this chamber representatives of Australians whose families have been here for generations, who are the descendants of migrants to Australia of more than 100 years ago.</p>
<p>"We have in this chamber first-generation migrants from Kenya, Malaysia, Belgium, Germany and Scotland. What a great country we are. Where first-generation Australians can join First Australians and those Australians whose families have lived here for more than 100 years and all work together to make our great country an even better country.”</p>
<p>While the mainstream had its act together, on the fringe it was a wild ride.</p>
<p>Pauline Hanson denounced Anning’s speech. “I have always advocated you do not have to be white to be Australian,” she said. And “to actually hear people say now that, as Senator Hinch said, it is like hearing Pauline Hanson on steroids – I take offence to that”.</p>
<p>Never mind that in her own <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;db=CHAMBER;id=chamber%2Fhansards%2F16daad94-5c74-4641-a730-7f6d74312148%2F0140;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F16daad94-5c74-4641-a730-7f6d74312148%2F0139%22">maiden speech</a> as a senator Hanson had declared that further Muslim immigration should be stopped and the burqa banned. “Now we are in danger of being swamped by Muslims who bear a culture and ideology that is incompatible with our own,” she <a href="https://theconversation.com/pauline-hanson-20-years-on-same-refrain-new-target-65433">said</a> in September 2016.</p>
<p>Later on Wednesday Hanson introduced her private member’s <a href="https://www.senatorhanson.com.au/2018/08/15/australians-deserve-a-say-on-the-levels-of-migration/">bill</a> “to give voters a say on whether Australia’s immigration levels are too high by casting a vote at the next general election”.</p>
<p>Then there was that force of nature, Bob Katter, who said he supported his new recruit “1000% … I support everything he said”.</p>
<p>It is never easy to navigate one’s way through Katter speak – on Wednesday it was at times close to impossible.</p>
<p>“Fraser is dead right – we do not want people coming in from the Middle East or North Africa unless they’re the persecuted minorities. Why aren’t you bringing in the Sikhs? Why aren’t you bringing in the Jews?” he told a news conference in Cairns – he could not fly to Canberra and parliament because of a sinus procedure.</p>
<p>As for the “final solution” reference: “Fraser is a knockabout bloke, he’s owned pubs and he’s not stupid – he built his own aeroplane. But he hasn’t read all the history books.</p>
<p>"He didn’t go to university, he was out working building pipelines for the coal and the gas and the oil with a hard hat on. He’s a member of the hard left, not the lily pad left. He didn’t go to university to know the significance of all these words.</p>
<p>"Fraser would have no idea about what that meant. For those of us, like myself that are fascinated by history and have read the history books – it is one of the worst statements in all of human history.”</p>
<p>“He like myself, has had constant meetings and addressed Jewish groups around Australia. We are strongly behind the Jewish people.”</p>
<p>Hanson wasn’t the only one complaining of being insulted. Katter turned on a journalist who referred to his Lebanese grandfather. </p>
<p>“He’s not. He’s an Australian. I resent, strongly, you describing him as Lebanese. That is racist comment and you should take it back and should be ashamed … No prouder Australian than my grandfather.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In our frequently depressing and often toxic political climate, Wednesday’s bipartisanship was a small but significant and encouraging moment of unity on what we stand for as a nation.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/877552017-11-26T01:04:32Z2017-11-26T01:04:32ZWith result still in the balance, Labor likely to win Queensland and One Nation likely to take just one seat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196370/original/file-20171126-21838-1v6lcxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Queensland voters have punished the major parties, but Annastacia Palaszczuk is most likely to be returned as premier.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Glenn Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 70% of enrolled voters counted in yesterday’s Queensland election, the ABC is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/results/">calling 43 of the 93</a> seats for Labor, 34 for the LNP and two for Katter’s Australian Party (KAP). Fourteen seats have not yet been called, and Labor needs four of these seats to win a majority (47 seats).</p>
<p>The LNP is well ahead in three of the seats the ABC currently has as doubtful (Glass House, Theodore and Whitsunday). As postals favour the LNP, these are very likely to be won by them. In <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district5.html">Bonney</a>, Labor currently leads by ten votes, but 3,000 votes have had a primary count but not yet a two-candidate count. When included, the LNP will lead, and will probably win.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district70.html">Pumicestone</a>, the LNP leads by 263 votes, and will very likely win. In <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district27.html">Gaven</a>, Labor leads the LNP by 462 votes, and should win, especially as many LNP-friendly postals have already been counted.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/cook/">Cook</a>, Labor has 39% of the primary vote, with One Nation, the LNP and KAP clustered just below 19%. Labor is likely to defeat whoever is second. In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/maca/">Macalister</a>, Labor is thumping the LNP 60-40, but an independent could beat the LNP into third and benefit from their preferences. However, independents generally do badly on postals, and Labor should win.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/thur/">Thuringowa</a>, Labor leads One Nation 56-44, but primary votes are 32% Labor, 21% LNP, 20% One Nation and 16% Katter Party. One Nation could move ahead of the LNP on Katter preferences, but we have no Labor vs LNP count. Based on other results, Labor should win even if the LNP is second.</p>
<p>In Burdekin, Maiwar, Mirani, Hinchinbrook, Noosa and Rockhampton, the ABC’s preference counts are guesses as the wrong candidates were selected on election night, and the electoral commission will need to re-do the preference count. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/maiw/">Maiwar</a>, Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson appears to have been defeated by the Greens. In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/rock/">Rockhampton</a>, local mayor Margaret Strelow, who was backed as the Labor candidate by Palaszczuk but lost preselection, is likely to defeat the endorsed Labor candidate as an independent. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/mira/">Mirani</a> is likely to be the only One Nation win, gained from Labor on LNP preferences. <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district66.html">Noosa</a> has been gained from the LNP by an independent. KAP is well-placed to win <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district35.html">Hinchinbrook</a> from the LNP from third place on Labor then One Nation preferences. In <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district11.html">Burdekin</a>, Labor leads the LNP on primary votes, but the seat will be decided on One Nation preferences. One Nation put Labor ahead of the LNP on its how-to-vote card here.</p>
<p>If Gaven, Cook, Macalister and Thuringowa all go to Labor, and Labor holds the 43 seats the ABC is currently calling for it, Labor will win 47 seats, a bare majority. With Rockhampton and Maiwar likely to go to left-wing candidates, the result should be a clear left majority.</p>
<p>The most likely final seat outcome is Labor 47 of 93 seats, LNP 39, KAP three, independents two, Greens one and One Nation one. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/contradictory-polls-in-queensland-while-the-greens-storm-northcote-in-victoria-87516">pre-election pendulum</a> gave Labor 48 seats and the LNP 43 after assigning defectors to the party that would win the seat in 2015. So, if the seat result above occurs, Labor has lost one seat and the LNP four.</p>
<p>Statewide primary votes are currently 36.0% Labor (down 1.4% since 2015), 33.0% LNP (down 8.3%), 13.9% One Nation (up 13%) and 9.9% Greens (up 1.5%). Labor will probably decline slightly on additional votes, with the LNP and Greens slightly up. On current figures, Newspoll was the most accurate poll.</p>
<p>Comparing seat numbers with primary votes highlights the disproportional nature of single-member systems. KAP contested only ten seats, and appear to have won three on just 2.1% of the vote. With far higher vote shares, the Greens and One Nation each appear to have won just one seat.</p>
<p><a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/11/queensland-2017-live.html">Kevin Bonham</a> says Labor performed slightly worse in seat terms than expected given the statewide primary votes because southeast Queensland swings were uneven, and often occurred in seats Labor already held.</p>
<p>In seats the ABC <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/results/list/?selector=changing&sort=az">has called</a> as changing hands, Labor has gained Aspley and Redlands from the LNP, but lost Bundaberg. Labor gained Cairns from a defector, and the LNP gained Buderim from LNP defector Steve Dickson, who was One Nation’s state leader. </p>
<p>Labor crushed One Nation’s former senator Malcolm Roberts in <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district37.html">Ipswich</a>, and Deputy Premier Jackie Trad held off a Greens challenge in <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district76.html">South Brisbane</a>.</p>
<p>While Labor has probably won, this was an underwhelming performance, given it was a first-term government and the unpopularity of the federal Coalition. I think the defection of Cook MP Billy Gordon early in the last term damaged Labor, as it still needed his vote.</p>
<p>As I <a href="https://theconversation.com/qld-galaxy-52-48-to-labor-but-one-nation-up-why-labors-adani-support-a-vote-loser-86767">have argued before</a>, Labor’s attempt to play both sides of the Adani issue was not good political strategy, and they would probably have performed better had they rejected Adani early in the last term. Rejecting the Commonwealth’s A$1 billion loan to Adani just three weeks before the election would have been perceived by many as a cynical move.</p>
<p>While statewide polling was accurate, seat polls were as usual shocking. Newspoll <a href="https://theconversation.com/contradictory-polls-in-queensland-while-the-greens-storm-northcote-in-victoria-87516">had a large miss</a>, with One Nation ahead 54-46 in <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/district84.html">Thuringowa</a>; currently Labor leads One Nation 56-44.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87755/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor is still shy of the 47 seats it needs to form government in Queensland, but it is best placed to do so in the coming days.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/399112015-05-04T19:25:47Z2015-05-04T19:25:47ZNorth Queensland’s powerful trio will shake up the state<p>Three north Queensland MPs representing just 3% of the state’s population will wield huge power in Queensland’s parliament, which resumes on Tuesday for the first full sitting week since the January 31 state election.</p>
<p>In the weeks since <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/billy-gordon-statement-april-8-2015-20150407-1mgdbx.html">quitting the Labor Party</a> – after Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/annastacia-palaszczuk-sacks-mp-billy-gordon-from-the-alp-20150329-1ma92x.html">advised him to resign</a> – new independent Billy Gordon has said he has been “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/billy-gordon-i-have-never-laid-a-hand-on-a-woman/story-e6frgczx-1227330826361">forming an alliance</a>” with the two Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) MPs, <a href="http://robkatter.com.au/">Rob Katter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Shane-Knuth-MP/180764285343226">Shane Knuth</a>.</p>
<p>Gordon’s resignation left the Labor government with just 43 MPs in the 89-seat parliament, up against the Liberal Nationals’ 42 – though Palaszczuk can also count on the support of independent Speaker Peter Wellington. </p>
<p>That gives Gordon, Katter and Knuth – who represent the <a href="http://qspatial.information.qld.gov.au/State_Electoral_Image_Map_Series/Cook_opt.pdf">neighbouring</a> north Queensland seats of Cook, Mt Isa and Dalrymple – an unprecedented opportunity to trade their votes for a better deal for their regions, on everything from jobs to major infrastructure.</p>
<h2>New northern allies</h2>
<p>In a vast state governed from the south-east capital of Brisbane, north Queenslanders have historically struggled to have their concerns heard and taken seriously – so much so that federal MP Bob Katter and others have long pushed for north Queensland to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/bob-katter-wants-nth-queensland-to-be-its-own-state/story-fncynjr2-1226417426809">become its own state</a>.</p>
<p>But the new parliament could see the north gain greater influence. Gordon, Katter and Knuth all represent sprawling regional electorates in north Queensland. These jointly cover around half of the state’s land area, although they only have about 140,600 constituents (or about 3% of <a href="http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/pop-growth-highlights-trends-qld/pop-growth-highlights-trends-qld-2014.pdf">Queenslanders</a>) between them. </p>
<p>Quitting Labor last month, <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/billy-gordon-statement-april-8-2015-20150407-1mgdbx.html">Gordon said</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I will sit on the cross benches with members of Katter’s Australian Party, and will play a constructive role in allowing the Palaszczuk government to govern with confidence, while at all times ensuring that I represent my constituents.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/billy-gordon-i-have-never-laid-a-hand-on-a-woman/story-e6frgczx-1227330826361">More recently</a>, Gordon has said his expulsion from the ALP over his choice <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/annastacia-palaszczuk-sacks-mp-billy-gordon-from-the-alp-20150329-1ma92x.html">not to disclose information</a> about his <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BillyGordonforLeichhardt/posts/441928639306373">past</a> had given him “a tremendous amount of freedom to have a look at things differently”. In other words, Labor shouldn’t take Gordon’s vote for granted.</p>
<p>Gordon is facing domestic violence allegations, which are being <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/mischief-and-mayhem-await-new-queensland-parliament-20150504-1mzen0.html">investigated by the police</a>. The MP <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/billy-gordon-i-have-never-laid-a-hand-on-a-woman/story-e6frgczx-1227330826361">has denied</a> those allegations.</p>
<p>If those allegations lead to charges being laid and a successful prosecution, it <a href="https://theconversation.com/billy-gordons-past-shouldnt-end-the-queensland-government-39487">may</a> spell the end of his political career. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76522/original/image-20150331-1266-1cnz9ko.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New seats of power? Billy Gordon’s seat of Cook, in far north Queensland, borders the KAP-held seats of Mt Isa and Dalrymple.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/Profiles/Cook/map.pdf">Queensland Electoral Commission</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But, in the meantime, Gordon will take his seat on the cross-benches as the state’s first <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-08/billy-gordon-to-stay-on-as-mp-in-queensland/6377900">independent</a> Indigenous MP, representing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/cook/">Cook</a>, Queensland’s northernmost seat. Cook stretches from just inland of Cairns, taking in coastal communities such as Mossman, Port Douglas and Cooktown, north to the islands of the Torres Strait.</p>
<p>Rob Katter represents the north-west seat of <a href="http://robkatter.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/map-of-mount-isa-A4.pdf">Mt Isa</a>. It’s an electorate <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/misa/">bigger than Victoria and Tasmania combined</a>, reaching all the way from the Gulf of Carpentaria down to Birdsville and the South Australian border. Sitting alongside Katter will be former LNP MP Knuth, who represents the inland electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/dalr/">Dalrymple</a>, centred on Charters Towers.</p>
<p>So as parliament resumes and the cross-bench trio get their first chance to work together, what are their key demands likely to include? </p>
<h2>Key issues to watch</h2>
<p>Given the finely balanced numbers in parliament, both the Labor government and the LNP opposition will be looking to see how best to work with the north Queensland trio.</p>
<p>One of the first tests for all three will no doubt be whether the both major parties treat them with respect – something that the KAP considered was <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/lnp-slides-from-glory-to-chaos-with-one-mp-to-be-kicked-out-for-dissent-and-another-threatening-to-sue-a-colleague/story-fndo4ckr-1226526140813">lacking under the previous government</a> – and as legitimate political voices. </p>
<p>Key areas that the trio will likely demand greater action on include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Unemployment, especially youth unemployment, which <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/billy-gordon-statement-april-8-2015-20150407-1mgdbx.html">Gordon has pointed out</a> is at 22% in regional far north Queensland.</p></li>
<li><p>Increased spending on major infrastructure for the north, such as the Hann Highway <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/queensland-election-2015-katters-australian-party-undecided/story-fnr8rfrw-1227208759423">inland freight route</a> to cut travel times south from Cairns, and the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/billy-gordon-statement-april-8-2015-20150407-1mgdbx.html">Peninsula Development Road</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>More open processes for major project approvals in the region, particularly in the mining industry.</p></li>
<li><p>Greater equity in the allocation of human services, such as spending on hospitals.</p></li>
<li><p>Better access to natural resources including <a href="http://robkatter.com.au/katter-pursues-mount-isa-water-issue-with-minister/">water allocation</a>, energy and reform of vegetation management laws.</p></li>
<li><p>Greater investment in infrastructure and services for Indigenous communities, especially remote communities in the far north, along with more focus on enabling economic opportunities. Many people in the south may not know it, but there are deep connections between the Katter family and Indigenous communities across the north, with Bob Katter senior having once been Queensland’s mnister for Aboriginal affairs in the Bjelke-Petersen years.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Placing regional concerns at the heart of policy</h2>
<p>Perhaps the biggest challenge for both the Labor government and the LNP in dealing with the three north Queensland MPs will be the need for greater recognition of how centrally applied <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism">neo-liberal</a> policies can affect regional and remote communities differently to those living in big cities. </p>
<p>It’s easy for people in the southeast of Queensland or other parts of Australia to ridicule the policies of regionalist parties like the KAP. Yet regional MPs have often had good reason to challenge policies imposed from Brisbane or Canberra under successive governments, which, when not managed well, can have devastating impacts in regions like north Queensland.</p>
<p>For example, industry de-regulation, market reforms, business and environmental regulation, competitive tendering and grants allocation all have the potential to deliver state-scale efficiencies. But what may make economic sense at the state level can unfortunately have major impacts on particular local communities and enterprises, such as farms and factories. That’s why there should also be careful local, or “place-based”, strategies to minimise impacts and to facilitate new opportunities.</p>
<p>With continued pressures on the state budget and the essential need for Queensland to participate in the global and national economy, protectionism and isolationism could never again become the dominant forces within the state’s political system. </p>
<p>But that doesn’t mean that remote and regional concerns should not be heeded. And with regional MPs holding such crucial votes in this Queensland parliament, we can expect to hear far more about those regional concerns between now and the next state election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allan Dale researches a range of governance issues across the tropical world and receives funding research funding from a range of Commonwealth and State Government sources. He is also Chair of Regional Development Australia (Far North Queensland and Torres Strait).</span></em></p>Three north Queensland MPs representing just 3% of the state’s population will wield huge power in Queensland’s parliament when it resumes on Tuesday.Allan Dale, Professor in Tropical Regional Development, The Cairns Institute, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/365062015-01-22T19:01:44Z2015-01-22T19:01:44ZCould the Constitution protect farm water from coal seam gas?<blockquote>
<p>The Australian Constitution says residents have the right to water from the rivers for irrigation and conservation purposes but governments have brought in laws that are restricting this – One Nation’s <a href="http://m.qt.com.au/news/hanson-out-of-blocks-in-race-for-lockyer/2508779/">Pauline Hanson</a>, campaigning for the January 31 Queensland election.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Concern about <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/coal-seam-gas">coal seam gas</a> exploration and its impact on groundwater has become a crucial issue in many electorates across regional Australia, including in the current Queensland election. It’s one of the few issues in the campaign that unites minor parties and independents from across the right and left of politics, including <a href="http://www.kattersaustralianparty.com.au/policies/climate-and-environment.html">Katter’s Australian Party</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-18/palmer-uniter-party-launches-campaign/6023618">the Palmer United Party</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-17/greens-launch-solar-panel-strategy/6022918">the Greens</a>. </p>
<p>Queensland-born radio host <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/alan-jones-one-of-the-lefts-biggest-villains-has-suddenly-become-a-bit-of-a-hero-how-about-that-eh/story-fnj4alav-1227192242463">Alan Jones has also weighed into the campaign against coal seam gas projects</a>, encouraging Queensland voters to support “salt of the earth people with integrity” including <a href="http://www.2gb.com/article/dr-peter-wellington">independent MP Peter Wellington</a>.</p>
<p>Former federal MP Pauline Hanson is standing as the candidate for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/lock/">Lockyer</a>, currently a safe rural Liberal National seat west of Brisbane, where she has been <a href="http://m.qt.com.au/news/hanson-raises-csg-as-lockyer-election-issue/2505453/">campaigning on coal seam gas and water</a>.</p>
<p>But has Hanson got it right on the Constitution and landholders’ rights to water?</p>
<h2>Water rights in the Constitution</h2>
<p>Water rights are of particular concern to farmers who have farms close to coal seam gas mining operations, as they rely on the groundwater to irrigate their crops or for livestock. A commonly expressed fear is that coal seam gas extraction could <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-governments-control-of-coal-seam-gas-a-welcome-relief-12782">deplete groundwater supplies and contaminate the aquifer</a>.</p>
<p>Hanson’s claim that the Constitution provided some protection for farmers seems to rely on <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s100.html">section 100</a>, which contains the only reference to the rights of residents to water in the Constitution. It states: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Commonwealth shall not, by any law or regulation of trade or commerce, abridge the right of a State or of the residents therein to the reasonable use of the waters of rivers for conservation or irrigation.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Limits on constitutional protection for water</h2>
<p>Despite the fact that water is such a scarce resource in Australia, there have been very few legal cases involving section 100. Prior to the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/1983/21.html">Tasmanian Dam Case</a> in 1983, the wording of the section had not been considered directly by the High Court. Since that decision, the Court has only had examined section 100 on <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2010/3.html">one other occasion</a>.</p>
<p>There are a number of difficulties with relying on section 100 to protect farmers’ water rights and prevent any state government in Australia from allowing further coal seam gas exploration. </p>
<p>Among the reasons why the Constitution may not provide as much protection as Hanson hopes is that section 100 only applies to Commonwealth laws or regulations – and not to state laws or regulations. </p>
<p>Section 100 entitles a State or its residents to the reasonable use of “the waters of rivers”. In the case of coal seam gas mining, the primary concern is with the impact it could have on groundwater.</p>
<p>But in 2010, the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2010/3.html">High Court drew a distinction</a> between groundwater and rivers, and held that section 100 applied only to the water flowing in rivers, which further limits section 100. </p>
<h2>What other protections are there?</h2>
<p>In 2013, the Commonwealth Government amended the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (<a href="http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2014C00506">EPBC Act</a>) so that where a coal seam gas development will have or is likely to have a significant impact on a water resource, the development <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/epbc/what-is-protected/water-resources">will be subject to</a> federal assessment under the Commonwealth EPBC Act. </p>
<p>But for those hoping that Hanson is right, and that the Constitution might give them some extra protection against coal seam gas impacting on their water supplies, I have to say I think she’s being too optimistic. </p>
<p>The “right” that section 100 refers to is a “right” against the Commonwealth. And as I’ve just explained, the Commonwealth (meaning the federal government) has a more limited role when it comes to coal seam gas and water.</p>
<p>Instead, the power to legislate on these matters falls largely to the state Parliament and the government of the day.</p>
<p>If Queenslanders do have any concerns about water and coal seam gas, they should certainly have their say. But it’s an issue mainly to take up with your state MP or candidates, rather than counting on the Australian Constitution to provide the solution.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Webster is a member of Executive Committee of the Conservation Council of South Australia.</span></em></p>The Australian Constitution says residents have the right to water from the rivers for irrigation and conservation purposes but governments have brought in laws that are restricting this – One Nation’s…Adam Webster, Lecturer, Adelaide Law School, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359122015-01-18T19:20:44Z2015-01-18T19:20:44ZPalmer misses the party as PUPs struggle to be heard in Queensland<p>It’s been a surprisingly muted campaign from the Palmer United Party (PUP) ahead of Queensland’s January 31 poll – and on Sunday, the man who started it all couldn’t even make it to his own party.</p>
<p>At the 2013 federal election, you could hardly turn on your TV, go to your letterbox or drive up a major highway in southeast Queensland without seeing Clive Palmer’s beaming face on a bright yellow background. </p>
<p>Only a year-and-a-half later, Palmer and his PUPs have been largely missing in action in the snap Queensland election, while the Liberal National government and Labor opposition have run prominent primetime broadcast, print and social media campaigns.</p>
<p>Just like the federal campaign launch, PUP’s Queensland election launch was held at the <a href="http://palmercoolumresort.com.au/">Palmer Coolum Resort</a> on the Sunshine Coast. But unlike in 2013, when party founder Palmer <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ffd08bUGzZs">made a dramatic entrance</a> to the soundtrack of Eye of the Tiger, this time he made headlines for being a <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/palmer-no-show-pups-mcdonald-launches-qld-campaign/2514392/">“no-show”</a> with the flu.</p>
<p>Instead, it was left to John Bjelke-Petersen – who was only appointed as the <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/12/28/sir-johs-son-lead-qld-pup">new state party leader</a> several weeks ago and who is best known as the son of long-serving Queensland Premier Sir Joh – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-18/palmer-uniter-party-launches-campaign/6023618">to pledge</a> to abolish Queensland’s payroll tax and stop coal seam gas exploration until the water table is secured. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"556625484889350145"}"></div></p>
<h2>PUP’s prospects</h2>
<p>Polling currently suggests that PUP will <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-back-to-the-polls-if-hung-parliament-is-the-result-20150112-12mkjo.html">struggle to win any seats</a> in the next state parliament. </p>
<p>Only days after the early election was called, Queensland’s Courier-Mail newspaper <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/first-poll-of-queensland-election-campaign-shows-surging-support-for-lnp/story-fnr8vuu5-1227180188179">reported</a> a Galaxy poll showed PUP support falling from 12% of voters surveyed in August 2014 to just 3% this month. The newspaper’s state political editor, Steven Wardill, <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/first-poll-of-queensland-election-campaign-shows-surging-support-for-lnp/story-fnr8vuu5-1227180188179">declared</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Palmer United Party’s first Queensland election is now over before it officially began.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Other polling for Seven News Brisbane found the party’s support had dropped from 15% in July last year to 6% this month.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"552744405572927488"}"></div></p>
<p>But when asked last week what had gone wrong in Queensland, Palmer <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-14/palmer-predicts-pup-will-hold-balance-of-power-qld-election/6015706">replied</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Absolutely nothing. Our support’s increased in Queensland … I think we’ll achieve the balance of power in Queensland and stand as the last centurion of the gates to protect the sale of our schools and hospitals.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>From the main stage to a sideshow</h2>
<p>For Palmer, this state election is personal. Even though he’s not standing for election, the former LNP lifetime member had a spectacular falling out with the Newman government after its election in March 2012, sparking his decision to form <a href="https://theconversation.com/titanic-ambitions-palmers-federal-push-shouldnt-be-lightly-dismissed-13825">his own political party in April 2013</a>.</p>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2013 federal election, Palmer wasn’t shy about setting his sights high. </p>
<p>Offering himself as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8-3DHZw--E">“the next prime minister of Australia”</a>, Palmer declared in his TV ads and speeches: “Don’t you know, we’re talking about a revolution.” The leader of the new Palmer United Party was everywhere, blanketing not only Queensland but many other electorates nationwide with ads promising tax cuts and a better deal for pensioners.</p>
<p>Although he didn’t make it to the Lodge, in the 2013 election Palmer was elected in the lower house electorate of Fairfax on the Sunshine Coast, together with three PUP senators from Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.</p>
<figure>
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</figure>
<p>At the time, a significant number of Australians were attracted to the maverick value of the Palmer brand. Here was someone, a former insider, set to give the major parties a shake-up. </p>
<p>Since then, the PUP’s parliamentary performances have suggested a party still finding its feet, its organisation dominated by its leader’s personality. </p>
<p>Federally, Palmer has imposed himself far more than most first-time MPs, working with his senators to broker crucial deals on issues like the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-14/palmer-confirms-support-for-renewed-push-to-axe-carbon-tax/5593448">carbon tax repeal</a>. But more recently, the resignation of one of his three senators, Tasmanian Jacqui Lambie, and the chairing of a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-13/shaky-start-to-queensland-government-inquiry/5889922">Senate inquiry into the Queensland government</a> (which got off to a shaky start) haven’t helped Palmer’s cause.</p>
<p>In state politics, the party has a similarly mixed record. </p>
<p>Within the Queensland parliament, two government MPs (Alex Douglas from Gaven and Carl Judge from Yeerongpilly) quit the LNP to join the PUP – only to both resign from the PUP last year. </p>
<p>Douglas accused the party of a <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/alex-douglas-quits-palmer-united-party-20140811-102pxf.html">“jobs for the boys”</a> culture, while Judge <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/carl-judge-quits-palmer-united-party-20141008-113brv.html">said</a> he felt the fledgling party was better off focusing on federal issues.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=962&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=962&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69192/original/image-20150116-5198-jq4b8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=962&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2014 election results for Victoria’s upper house.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2014/Summary.html">Victorian Electoral Commission</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like Queensland, in the Northern Territory there has been interest in the PUP brand among restless members of the Legislative Assembly. But all <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_United_Party#Resignation_of_Alison_Anderson_and_Larisa_Lee">three members who defected to PUP</a> have since left the party to return to the Country Liberal Party or to sit on the crossbench.</p>
<p>And at the most recent state election before this Queensland campaign – Victoria’s poll last November – PUP candidates garnered a mere 1.95% of the votes for the upper house and failed to win a seat.</p>
<h2>Who else might Queensland’s protest voters support?</h2>
<p>Queensland is famous for producing political mavericks and eponymous political parties. </p>
<p>This election, Pauline Hanson is also back for <a href="https://theconversation.com/hanson-gets-the-band-back-together-can-she-make-an-impact-34747">another go</a>, in the seat of Lockyer.</p>
<p>In 2011, federal member Bob Katter has lent his name to a party aiming to capture some of the seats in the north of the state. Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) holds three of the 89 state seats, but its support has slipped since the 2012 election and pollsters have tipped the KAP may <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-back-to-the-polls-if-hung-parliament-is-the-result-20150112-12mkjo.html">hang on to only two of those</a>.</p>
<p>What about the Greens? I’d have to agree with <a href="https://theconversation.com/lnp-gains-in-two-new-queensland-polls-36101">Adrian Beaumont</a>, who’s noted elsewhere on The Conversation that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Queensland has never been a great state for the Greens, and on current polling they will probably do worse than their 7.5% at the 2012 election.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Queenslanders like their independents and a number <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-back-to-the-polls-if-hung-parliament-is-the-result-20150112-12mkjo.html">are tipped</a> to either hold or win their seats, including Peter Wellington in Nicklin, Chris Foley in Maryborough and Julie Boyd in Mackay. </p>
<p>Wellington, Foley and the KAP’s Robbie Katter and Shane Knuth have already held talks about <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/independents-prepare-for-hung-parliament-in-queensland-state-election/story-fnr8vuu5-1227181547502">an “informal coalition”</a> to block asset leases and wind back bikie laws – two of the LNP government’s signature policies.</p>
<p>After January 31, there’s a good chance Clive Palmer will continue to use his federal platform to niggle his LNP nemesis in Queensland. But it is looking less and less likely there will be a PUP member on board what promises to be a colourful state crossbench.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donna Weeks is presently chair of the Queensland chapter of the Australasian Study of Parliament Group. She is an associate of the Queensland public policy think tank TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>It’s been a surprisingly muted campaign from the Palmer United Party (PUP) ahead of Queensland’s January 31 poll – and on Sunday, the man who started it all couldn’t even make it to his own party. At the…Donna Weeks, Lecturer, Japanese Studies and International Relations, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.