tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/lockdown-rules-85578/articlesLockdown rules – The Conversation2022-02-02T19:52:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1762062022-02-02T19:52:33Z2022-02-02T19:52:33ZOrder, order! A guide to ‘partygate’ and the UK’s rambunctious Parliament<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444079/original/file-20220202-17-3gma09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C5%2C3538%2C2149&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The speaker has spoken.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-of-commons-sir-lindsay-hoyle-asks-snp-news-photo/1238099242?adppopup=true">House of Commons/PA Images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Even by the usual rough-and-tumble standards of U.K. politics, the recent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/31/world/boris-johnson-party">hauling over the coals</a> of Prime Minister Boris Johnson inside the House of Commons was a remarkable spectacle.</em> </p>
<p><em>For almost two hours on Jan. 31, 2022, he faced opposition politicians – and even some <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60204842">from within his own ranks</a> – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pm-johnson-receives-report-into-potential-downing-street-lockdown-breaches-2022-01-31/">scolding him for his role</a> in a scandal over <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/boris-johnsons-lockdown-partygate">partying in the prime minister’s official residence on Downing Street</a> during the COVID-19 lockdown. One party leader <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ian-blackford-ejected-commons-boris-b2004309.html">was ejected</a> and another <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-jimmy-savile-starmer-b2004788.html">slurred by a third</a> over a false claim propagated by online conspiracy theorists.</em></p>
<p><em>Viewers in the U.S. may have been curious over some of the seemingly arcane and unruly goings-on. So The Conversation called on <a href="https://www.american.edu/sis/faculty/garretm.cfm#:%7E:text=Additional%20Information-,Garret%20J.,of%20the%20Transatlantic%20Policy%20Center.">Garret Martin from American University’s Transatlantic Policy Center</a> to help provide some answers.</em></p>
<h2>What exactly is ‘partygate’?</h2>
<p>Boris Johnson has had a bit of a rough time of late. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/19/boris-johnson-and-staff-pictured-with-wine-in-downing-street-garden-in-may-2020">series of leaks to the media</a> revealed that at the same time his government was <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/covid-downing-street-party-england-rules-b2004046.html">telling the British public to observe strict social-distancing rules</a>, members of his staff were holding what appeared to be boozy parties at No. 10 Downing St., the prime minister’s official residence, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59930733">as well as in its garden</a>.</p>
<p>Under pressure from an outraged public, Johnson ordered an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/27/britain-sue-gray-boris-johnson-report/">inquiry to be carried out by Sue Gray</a>, a senior member of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/civil-service">the civil service</a> – the nonpartisan bureaucratic arm that supports the government.</p>
<p>Her full report <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/sue-gray-report-whats-missing/">could not be released</a> as a result of U.K. police <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-60177669">initiation of a criminal investigation</a> into potential rule-breaking as a result of the gatherings.</p>
<p>Under the cloud of this criminal investigation – and with an update from Gray indicating <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/report-into-partygate-highlights-serious-failures-of-government-calls-for-boris-johnson-to-resign/">serious failings</a> on the government’s part – Johnson was forced to face elected politicians in the House of Commons for a grilling on Jan. 31, and again <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/">two days later at the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions</a>, at which Members of Parliament get to direct questions directly at the premier.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Former Prime Minister Theresa May challenges Boris Johnson.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Who was the guy shouting ‘order, order!’ and why?</h2>
<p>That was the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/commons/the-speaker/">speaker of the House of Commons</a>, Sir Lindsay Hoyle. </p>
<p>The role of the speaker in the main chamber of the U.K. Parliament has a long history <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/parliamentwork/offices-and-ceremonies/overview/the-speaker/">dating back to the 14th century</a>. It shares some similarities with the position of the <a href="https://www.speaker.gov/#:%7E:text=Speaker%20Nancy%20Pelosi%20%7C%20U.S.%20House%20of%20Representatives">speaker of the House of Representatives</a> in the U.S., but there are also noticeable differences. In particular, speakers in the U.K. are supposed to be impartial figures – they resign from their party upon appointment. </p>
<p>Speakers run the debates in Parliament, in a role that is somewhat, in the words of the U.K. think tank Institute for Government, “<a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/speaker-house-commons">part chair, part referee, and part symbolic representative of the Commons as whole</a>.”</p>
<p>This role includes deciding which Members of Parliament can speak during debates and which amendments should be considered for vote.</p>
<p>The speaker is supposed to remain impartial, but that is sometimes easier said than done. During the height of the Brexit saga – the process by which the U.K. left the European Union – then-Speaker <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/world/europe/british-parliament-speaker-john-bercow-resigns.html">John Bercow made several controversial rulings</a> when it came to parliamentary debates. This made him a <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-drama-john-bercow-resignation/">divisive figure</a>: celebrated by many as a champion of parliamentary oversight, and suspected by many others of trying to undo the results of the 2016 Brexit referendum.</p>
<h2>Why did the speaker eject a politician in the partygate debate?</h2>
<p>Along with their other roles, speakers are expected to keep an eye on the tone of the debates in Parliament. During the Jan. 31 session, the leader of the Scottish National Party in Westminster, Ian Blackford, was <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/31/ian-blackford-kicked-out-of-commons-over-boris-johnson-claims-16022326/">kicked out of the Commons</a> for calling Boris Johnson a “liar” over the lockdown parties. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">SNP leader in the Commons calls Boris Johnson a ‘liar.’</span></figcaption>
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<p>There is no set list of unacceptable words. But speakers, in charge of maintaining civility in Parliament, can ask MPs to withdraw words deemed impolite. This has included in the past words such as “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48445464">liar,” “traitor,” “hooligan” and “stool pigeon.”</a> Blackford was given a number of chances to withdraw his “liar” comment, but he declined, leading to the speaker’s ejecting him from the chamber.</p>
<h2>So why were other slurs allowed in the debate?</h2>
<p>Aside from refraining from incivility, Members of Parliament still receive significant protection over what they can say as a result of something called “parliamentary privilege.” </p>
<p>This shields them from being sued or prosecuted, such as for defamation, if the libelous statement is made <a href="https://guidetoprocedure.parliament.uk/articles/szEQlFBF/freedom-of-speech">in the chamber, Westminster Hall or a committee of the House of Commons</a>.</p>
<p>This protection dates back to the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/british-history/english-bill-of-rights#:%7E:text=The%20English%20Bill%20of%20Rights%20was%20an%20act%20signed%20into,Parliament%20power%20over%20the%20monarchy.">1689 Bill of Rights</a>. Its initial purpose was <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt199899/jtselect/jtpriv/43/4306.htm">to protect Parliament members from being brought before the courts by the crown and accused of seditious libel</a>. </p>
<p>On Feb. 2, the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-jimmy-savile-starmer-speaker-b2005010.html">speaker issued a statement that seemed to condemn</a> an earlier slur – apparently <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/boris-johnson-has-nothing-to-apologise-for-over-jimmy-savile-comments-083320344.html">originating from online conspiracy theorists</a> – directed by Boris Johnson to opposition leader Keir Starmer. But he could not take any further action because it did not contravene parliamentary rules; likewise, even if it were deemed to be defamatory, there is nothing Starmer could do about it.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The speaker comments on language in the House.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What happens next – could Boris Johnson be forced out?</h2>
<p>Partygate, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/23/nusrat-ghanis-allegations-reignite-claims-that-tory-party-is-islamophobic">and other recent reports that reflect badly on Boris Johnson and his party</a>, has left the prime minister vulnerable. He could even lose his job, since U.K. prime ministers can be ousted by their own party members.</p>
<p>U.K. political parties follow different rules on how they can remove a leader, with the threshold for holding a vote of no confidence low for Johnson’s Conservatives. It only requires the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-conservative-lawmaker-says-will-call-confidence-vote-pm-2022-02-02/">support of 15% of sitting Conservative Members of Parliament</a>, which equates to 54 out of the current 359 Conservative members. Members can send letters of no confidence at any time to the head of the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/1922-committee-the-22/">1922 Committee</a>, which represents the “backbenchers” – the more junior members of the party. </p>
<p>The leader of that committee keeps the tally secret until the 15% threshold has been reached. After that, the confidence vote can happen rather quickly. The last leadership challenge, against Theresa May <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/world/europe/brexit-theresa-may-vote.html">in December 2018</a>, took place within hours of the threshold being reached.</p>
<p>Triggering the vote is easy, but <a href="https://www-economist-com.proxyau.wrlc.org/the-economist-explains/2022/01/19/how-does-a-leadership-challenge-work-in-britains-conservative-party">unseating the incumbent prime minister is a more difficult thing to do</a>. To save his job, Boris Johnson simply needs to get the backing of a majority of the current Conservative Members of Parliament in a secret ballot. He would also receive immunity from any new leadership challenge in the following 12-month period. </p>
<p>Conversely, a failure to gain majority support would mean the automatic ouster of Johnson, and a quick election within the Conservative party to elect a new leader. That person would, in turn, become the new prime minister. </p>
<p>Finally, even if Boris Johnson survived the vote, he could choose to resign if he believed the margin of victory was not decisive enough. That was Margaret Thatcher’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-trouble-is-boris-johnson-in-lessons-from-the-fall-of-margaret-thatcher-173949">fate in 1990</a>.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garret Martin receives funding from the European Union for the Transatlantic Policy Center, that he co-directs.</span></em></p>Why will calling someone a liar get you thrown out of the UK parliamentary debates, but using defamatory language might not?Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1690822021-10-06T12:28:20Z2021-10-06T12:28:20ZAs American independence rang, a sweeping lockdown and mass inoculations fought off a smallpox outbreak<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424543/original/file-20211004-15-1sh5x21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C48%2C2106%2C3266&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The first reading of the Declaration of Independence in Boston, July 18, 1776.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ark.digitalcommonwealth.org/ark:/50959/wh246s47c">Tichnor Brothers Collection, Boston Public Library via Digital Commonwealth</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans of the founding era denounced government tyranny, celebrated the Declaration of Independence – and favored lockdowns and mass inoculations to combat a viciously contagious disease.</p>
<p>Unchecked, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox">smallpox</a> kills more than one in 10 of its victims, leaving many of the rest blind, disfigured and sometimes sterile. Many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/jmh.2004.0012">historians</a> say the reason George Washington never had children was his near-fatal bout of smallpox in 1751.</p>
<p>The summer of 1776 was a time of crisis for the budding republic. A <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/pox-americana-the-great-smallpox-epidemic-of-1775-82/oclc/872598533">smallpox outbreak in the Continental Army</a> killed hundreds. And as the soldiers came home from a failed invasion of Canada, they brought the disease to Boston.</p>
<p>Yet the country badly needed healthy men: <a href="http://www.ouramericanrevolution.org/index.cfm/page/view/p0217">The British landed on Staten Island on July 2</a>, the same day <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-the-declaration-of-independence-is-officially-signed">Congress declared independence</a>. </p>
<p>A perfect solution beckoned: <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/pox-americana-the-great-smallpox-epidemic-of-1775-82/oclc/872598533">inoculation</a>, the 18th-century precursor to vaccination. As <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/pox-americana-the-great-smallpox-epidemic-of-1775-82/oclc/872598533">historian Elizabeth Fenn explains</a>, the physician would make small incisions in the patient’s skin, then introduce scabs or pus from a person with smallpox. The inoculee would then contract a mild form of the virus, only one-tenth as lethal as the accidentally acquired version.</p>
<p>It would be 20 years before English scientist <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/">Edward Jenner</a> pioneered the practice of immunizing people against smallpox with the similar cowpox virus, which is harmless to humans. Since the Latin word for cow is “vacca,” that process became known as vaccination.</p>
<p>In Colonial times, people who got inoculated generally did so in groups in order to keep down the cost and logistical complications. For the several weeks that they remained contagious, they would take over a home or tavern and proclaim it a <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/pox-americana-the-great-smallpox-epidemic-of-1775-82/oclc/872598533">smallpox hospital</a>: off-limits to everyone but inoculees.</p>
<h2>Imposing a lockdown</h2>
<p>Boston and other towns required people undergoing inoculation to remain indoors and post <a href="https://boston1775.blogspot.com/2007/04/newspapers-on-flag-at-liberty-tree.html">red warning flags</a> around the immunization site. Sometimes, though, restless individuals would slip out, endangering neighbors who either could not afford the expensive procedure or chose not to undergo it. Even when inoculees remained indoors, townspeople so feared catching this horrific disease that they often <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25652028">rioted</a> against doctors who set up inoculation sites.</p>
<p>But by early summer 1776, the majority of not-yet-inoculated Bostonians were eager for the procedure – and so were many out-of-towners. Abigail Adams, famous today for imploring the Continental Congress to “<a href="https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc?id=L17760331aa&bc=%2Fdigitaladams%2Farchive%2Fbrowse%2Fdate%2Fall_1776.php">Remember the Ladies</a>,” acted quickly to inoculate herself and her children. Traveling from the nearby town of Braintree to Boston for the treatment, she wrote her husband, future president John Adams, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/12/12/abigail-adams-smallpox-coronavirus-vaccine/">Our Little ones stood the operation Manfully</a> … The Little folks are very sick then and puke every morning, but after that they are comfortable.”</p>
<p>Still, others refused, and Boston’s selectmen (city council) could not just let everyone decide for themselves. A patchwork of families, some undergoing and some refusing inoculation, would assuredly have set off an epidemic. So Massachusetts legislators made a <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=umn.31951002355939u&view=1up&seq=557&skin=2021">bold decision</a>. Since most Bostonians wanted to be inoculated, they would not, per usual, have to confine themselves to smallpox hospitals. </p>
<p>Instead, they would have the run of Boston, and the anti-inoculators would be the ones who had to either <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=umn.31951002355939u&view=1up&seq=557&skin=2021">lock down or get out of town</a> before inoculation began. </p>
<p>Until the city was deemed safe, guards would be posted at the sole road and several ferry landings connecting Boston to the wider world. Only those who had already had smallpox would be allowed in, and no one could leave until the selectmen deemed them smallpox-free.</p>
<p>By July 18, when Col. Thomas Crafts stepped out onto the balcony of the Massachusetts State House to read the just-received Declaration of Independence, no one in attendance needed to fear either catching smallpox or giving it to someone else.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A painting of a woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=993&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=993&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424545/original/file-20211004-15-79s80p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=993&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abigail Adams remarked upon the cheering crowds in a locked-down Boston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Abigail_Adams.jpg">Benjamin Blyth via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Abigail Adams was among the “<a href="https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc?id=L17760721aa">Multitude</a>” who attended the reading. As Crafts finished the Declaration of Independence and shouted, “God Save our American States,” Adams reported, “<a href="https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc?id=L17760721aa">the Bells rang … the cannon were discharged, the platoons followed and every face appeard joyfull</a>.” </p>
<p>As late as August 26, Boston leaders were still trying to stamp out vestiges of the smallpox virus, but their bold action had prevented an epidemic. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/07/02/we-can-repeat-bostons-1776-freedom-summer/">Nearly 5,000 people</a> had been inoculated. That was equivalent to a <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/largest-cities-in-the-united-states-in-1776-and-in-2076">third of Boston’s population</a>, though about half of the inoculees were actually out-of-towners like the Adams family.</p>
<h2>Conflicting notions of freedom</h2>
<p>At the time, Boston had five newspapers, but no one used their pages to complain about the lockdown and other enforcement measures.</p>
<p>Some people took their belief in the individual’s responsibility to the community to extremes. The claim that “<a href="https://archive.csac.history.wisc.edu/Benjamin_Rush.pdf">Every man in a republic is public property</a>” came not from some crazed utopian but from Benjamin Rush, a signer of the Declaration of Independence. And Benjamin Franklin, in a Christmas 1783 letter advocating federal taxes to pay off the Revolutionary War debt, conceded that citizens have the right to retain enough property for their survival and for “the Propagation of the Species.” But he added: “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Franklin/01-41-02-0231">all Property superfluous to such purposes is the Property of the Publick</a>.”</p>
<p>Few Americans today would go as far as Rush and Franklin, but their comments, like Boston’s July 1776 decision to turn itself into one giant immunization site, remind us of the American Revolutionaries’ provocative conviction that communities have rights, too.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169082/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Woody Holton received funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities Henry E. Huntington Library, and Newberry Library.</span></em></p>In the summer of 1776, Boston offered smallpox inoculation to everyone and required those who declined to leave town or stay in their homes.Woody Holton, Professor of History, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1577212021-03-24T10:43:29Z2021-03-24T10:43:29ZWhat we learned from tracking every COVID policy in the world<p>In March 2020, as COVID-19 swept around the globe, my colleagues and I began debating the bewildering new measures popping up around the world with our master’s students in a politics of policymaking class at the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University. </p>
<p>We had a lot of questions. Why were governments doing different things? Which policies would work? We didn’t know. And to answer those questions, we needed comparable information on these new policies, including school closings, stay at home orders, contact tracing and more. </p>
<p>A few weeks later, we launched the <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker">Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker</a> to help find these answers. It has now become the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01079-8">largest repository</a> of global evidence relating to pandemic policies. </p>
<p>To date, more than 600 data collectors from around the world have helped us track 20 different categories of coronavirus response, including lockdown, health, economic, and now vaccine policies in 186 countries.</p>
<p>We then group those policies into a number of indices, including the stringency index, which records the number and intensity of closure and containment policies on a scale of zero to 100. Fifteen countries reached 100 on the stringency index, while seven never surpassed 50. The countries with the highest average stringency were Honduras, Argentina, Libya, Eritrea and Venezuela. Those with the lowest were Nicaragua, Burundi, Belarus, Kiribati and Tanzania.</p>
<p>A year on, what else have we learned about how governments have handled the largest health crisis in memory?</p>
<p>One surprising observation is that similarities can actually outweigh differences. During the first months of the pandemic, governments mostly adopted similar policies, in mostly the same sequence, at mostly the same time – the <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/variation-government-responses-covid-19">two middle weeks of March 2020</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map showing the relative strictness of COVID-19 measures in each country in March 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391182/original/file-20210323-15-1lb0y2g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker">Our World in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>This policy convergence contrasts with the uneven spread of COVID-19 around the world. In March 2020, though the disease was already prevalent in some parts of Asia, and rapidly spreading in parts of Europe and North America, it had yet to reach a wide scale of transmission in many parts of the world. The global lockdown rush therefore contrasted with the varying epidemiological situations countries faced. This meant that some countries locked down too late, and others arguably too soon.</p>
<p>But as the pandemic progressed, countries – and, in some parts of the world, <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/variation-us-states-responses-covid-19">states</a> and <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/variation-canadian-provincial-and-territorial-responses-covid-19">regions</a> – began to vary considerably.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map showing the relative strictness of COVID-19 measures in each country in March 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391181/original/file-20210323-12-1aimhi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/covid-19-government-response-tracker">Our World in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Some governments were able to contain the first wave and then preserve those gains with a mix of targeted closure and containment measures, extensive testing and contact tracing, and firm international border controls. </p>
<p>Places like <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/china">China</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/taiwan">Taiwan</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/vietnam">Vietnam</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand">New Zealand</a> all managed not just to flatten the curve but to keep it flat, albeit with a few small flare-ups. In our data, we count 39 countries that have only experienced one wave of disease, though limited testing and reporting systems, or government suppression of information, make it hard to determine the true number.</p>
<p>Other countries have had less success, seeing second, third, or even fourth waves of disease. Some of these have been relatively small outbreaks, controllable with test and trace measures and targeted restrictions. For example, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/south-korea">South Korea</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/finland">Finland</a>, though not able to eliminate the virus, have largely kept it from stressing health systems. </p>
<h2>Rollercoaster countries</h2>
<p>Too many countries have been on a veritable rollercoaster of rising and falling infections with corresponding policy whiplash and tragic death tolls. The <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states">United States</a>, <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/variation-response-covid-19-across-four-nations-united-kingdom">United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/south-africa">South Africa</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/iran">Iran</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil">Brazil</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/france">France</a> have seen successive waves of disease and have phased in and out of restrictive policies.</p>
<p>Though initially debated, the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0">scientific literature</a> is now clear: COVID-19 restrictions work to break the chain of infection, with timely, sharper restrictions having greater effect than slower, weaker ones. </p>
<p>But while clearly true on average, there is no guarantee this recipe will always work. Countries like <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/peru">Peru</a> suffered rising disease despite restrictive policies, perhaps showing that compliance and trust are also key to effectiveness. Some evidence also suggests that <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3621693">stronger economic support makes COVID-19 restrictions more effective</a>.</p>
<h2>Money isn’t everything</h2>
<p>While we can identify patterns of successful response, it is also evident that none of the country characteristics that were <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3774252">expected to provide an advantage</a> before the pandemic, such as wealth or autocracy, have clearly done so. </p>
<p>If you divide the world into countries with above average and below average deaths, robust government responses and weak ones, you will find in both groups plenty of rich countries and poor countries, democracies and dictatorships, those ruled by populists and those governed by technocrats.</p>
<p>Success and failure are moving targets. As the pandemic has evolved, so have government responses. According to our data, vaccines are now available in 128 countries and rising. Notably, some of the countries most swiftly rolling out vaccination – Israel, the UK, the United States, the UAE – are places that have previously struggled to control the virus through restrictions and test-and-trace systems.</p>
<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>One year on, the pandemic is by no means over, but already our data suggests some <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3774252">implications and lessons</a> for governments.</p>
<p>First, old ideas about what contributes to pandemic preparedness need to be updated. Some countries with formidable scientific and healthcare capacity <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/variation-government-responses-covid-19">stumbled mightily</a>. At the same time, places with less capacity, including <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/mongolia">Mongolia</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand">Thailand</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/senegal">Senegal</a> have managed to largely keep people healthy and the economy running.</p>
<p>Second, learning from others, or even from past experience, cannot be taken for granted. In March 2020 eastern European countries like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-central-and-eastern-european-countries-seem-to-be-running-out-of-luck-146349">Czech Republic, Hungary, and Bulgaria</a> saw what happened to their western neighbours and imposed restrictions before community transmission became widespread. They largely avoided the death tolls many western European countries experienced in the first wave. </p>
<p>But then just a few months later some of the same eastern European countries did the exact opposite, waiting too long to reimpose measures as cases rose in the autumn, with all too predictable consequences.</p>
<p>Finally, while our work has tracked individual governments’ responses, it is clear that exiting the pandemic will require global cooperation. Until transmission is curtailed throughout the world with restrictions and vaccinations, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-variants-how-did-they-evolve-and-what-do-they-mean-153405">risk of new variants</a> sending us back to square one cannot be ignored. </p>
<p>In the first year of the pandemic we saw little cooperation between governments. In the next, we will need to work together to control this disease.</p>
<p><em>Noam Angrist, Emily Cameron-Blake, Lucy Dixon, Laura Hallas, Saptarshi Majumdar, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, Helen Tatlow, Andrew Wood, and Yuxi Zhang contributed to this article. It is published in collaboration with the <a href="https://covidandsociety.com/">International Public Policy Observatory</a>, of which The Conversation is a partner organisation.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Hale receives funding from UKRI's Economic and Social Research Council through a project titled the International Public Policy Observatory, of which The Conversation is also a partner. </span></em></p>For one year, 600 people tracked 20 types of coronavirus restriction in 186 countries – here’s what they found out.Thomas Hale, Associate Professor in Public Policy, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1558902021-03-14T09:05:22Z2021-03-14T09:05:22ZWhose mental health suffered the most during COVID-19 lockdown in Nigeria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388262/original/file-20210308-20-fy6myu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some Nigerians took to mass looting of warehouses containing COVID-19 food palliatives that were not distributed six months into lockdown.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The toll of the <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019">coronavirus</a> pandemic on physical health and <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si">lives</a> worldwide is enormous. But the disease and the lockdown measures have had an impact on mental health too. </p>
<p>Some of the mental <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7448734/">health issues</a> that have been reported due to COVID-19 include anxiety, depression, anger, confusion, insomnia, post-traumatic disorders, boredom, loneliness and adjustment problems. </p>
<p>The phases of <a href="https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=afefb8de-48be-4808-b6e4-37e3bf8c7639">COVID-19 lockdown</a> in Nigeria spanned between early May 2020 and the end of July 2020. Movement was restricted during this period. Gradually, lockdown was eased but a curfew of 8pm to 6am was introduced across major cities in the country to curtail the spread of the virus. </p>
<p>As far as we knew, no previous research had examined the influence of socio-demographic characteristics on mental health among Nigerians during COVID-19 lockdown. So we set out to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13548506.2020.1865548">study</a> the effects of some of these variables on successful coping, stress and self-esteem.</p>
<p>The findings about which categories of people struggled most with their mental health under lockdown could inform interventions to make sure their needs are met. </p>
<h2>Demographic variables and aspects of mental health</h2>
<p>The socio-demographic variables that we considered in the study were gender, marital status, religion, ethnic group, education attainment and employment status. The facets of mental health we looked at were coping, stress and self-esteem. </p>
<p>We collected information for the study through an online questionnaire across Nigeria. Most of the 353 people, aged 18 to 65, who responded were from the southwestern parts of the country, and they had access to smart phones and social media. </p>
<p>This means the findings may not represent people from lower income groups or other geopolitical areas of the country. Most of our respondents (63%) were men and most were from the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria: Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa.</p>
<p>The questionnaire asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with or were undecided about 12 statements relating to their mental health. These were statements such as “I lose much sleep over worry”, “I have been feeling unhappy and depressed” and “I have been losing confidence in myself”. </p>
<h2>Who adjusted better and in what ways</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13548506.2020.1865548">We found</a> that different categories of people reported psychological impacts during the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7490626/">COVID-19 lockdown</a>. The Yoruba ethnic group, in the southwest region of Nigeria, adjusted better to the situation than other ethnic groups. The Igbo people, in the southeast region, were not that worried when compared to other ethnic groups. But the Yoruba had more positive views of themselves than other ethnic groups did.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240307181_Barriers_to_mental_health_services_utilization_in_the_Niger_Delta_region_of_Nigeria_service_user%27s_perspective">accessibility</a> of quality mental healthcare services differs by region, which is why we regarded ethnicity as relevant in our investigation. </p>
<p>We also analysed educational attainments. We found that individuals who had attained postgraduate education adjusted better and had a more positive view of themselves compared to others. We found that people who had completed secondary school appeared to worry less during this period. Those who were self-employed in Nigeria were able to adjust well, while the unemployed were more worried and had poor views of themselves.</p>
<p>Married people adjusted well; they were less worried and had more positive views of themselves than the unmarried. The married women coped better than married men. The single men adjusted better than single women. </p>
<p>In terms of employment status, salary earners were less worried and had more positive views of themselves than the self-employed or unemployed. Self-employed men adjusted better to the situation than both men and women who earned salaries, as well as unemployed men and women and self-employed women.</p>
<p>Self-employed singles were more anxious than unemployed married and unmarried people, single or married salary earners, and married self-employed individuals.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Generally, our research findings led to some interesting revelations. We found that men and women suffered mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic – which contradicts findings from <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09738-7">studies</a> conducted elsewhere. In line with <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2136550?seq=1">other studies</a>, individuals’ mental health differed based on their marital status, education and employment status. </p>
<p>As Nigeria continues to battle with the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343662833_Intrigues_and_Challenges_Associated_with_COVID-19_Pandemic_in_Nigeria">challenges</a> of COVID-19, it is worth noting that the categories of individuals who are most susceptible to psychological problems under these circumstances are the unmarried, the unemployed, the less educated and those from the northern parts of the country. These people should receive due attention in intervention programmes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Abiodun Musbau Lawal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In Nigeria, the unmarried, the unemployed, the less educated and those from the northern parts of the country were most susceptible to psychological challenges associated with COVID-19 lockdown.Dr Abiodun Musbau Lawal, Lecturer, Department of Psychology , Federal University, Oye EkitiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1545942021-02-10T10:13:39Z2021-02-10T10:13:39ZBanning safe home-use abortion pills will leave more women in crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383496/original/file-20210210-15-k9za8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2516%2C1706&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-young-woman-taking-prescription-pill-1234681048">Kierferpix/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/home-use-of-both-pills-for-early-medical-abortion/home-use-of-both-pills-for-early-medical-abortion-up-to-10-weeks-gestation">English</a> and <a href="https://gov.wales/termination-pregnancy-arrangements-wales">Welsh</a> governments are consulting the public about whether they should revoke temporary rules which allow women to terminate early pregnancies in their own homes with the use of two pills. The rules were brought in to reduce the need for face-to-face <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-abortion-women-telemedicine-nhs-a9424461.html">appointments</a> as COVID-19 swept through the population.</p>
<p>It is vital that women are continued to be allowed access to these drugs for use at home for early medical abortions. This method of termination is <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3742277">safe</a> and allows women to manage their reproductive health privately and respectfully.<br>
Despite <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/08/permanently-legalising-home-abortions-terrible-idea/">concerns</a> being raised by anti-choice campaigners that allowing women to obtain early abortions at home will lead to misuse of the medication, the evidence so far does not support those allegations. </p>
<p>A small number of cases have been reported in the media of women accessing the medication from abortion providers, such as the <a href="https://www.bpas.org">British Pregnancy Advisory Service</a> and <a href="https://www.msichoices.org.uk">MSI Reproductive Choices</a>, when they were over 10 weeks pregnant. This included one reported case of a woman who was <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8349739/Police-investigate-death-unborn-baby-woman-took-abortion-drugs-home-28-weeks-pregnant.html">28 weeks pregnant</a> when she took the medication.</p>
<p>In England, Wales and Scotland it is illegal to <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Vict/24-25/100/section/58">end a pregnancy</a> at any time, unless the abortion is conducted by a registered <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1967/87/section/1">medical practitioner</a>. The only circumstances in which it is legal to end a pregnancy that has reached the 24th week of gestation is if there is a severe threat to the woman’s physical or mental health or due to foetal abnormalities. </p>
<p>The temporary law allows the abortion medication – <a href="https://bnf.nice.org.uk/drug/mifepristone.html">mifepristone</a> and <a href="https://bnf.nice.org.uk/drug/misoprostol.html">misoprostol</a> – to be dispatched to a woman’s home following a telephone or video consultation with a medical professional. If a woman purposefully misleads abortion providers about the gestational stage of her pregnancy to obtain medication, she could theoretically be jailed for life, thanks to the Victorian legislation which <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Vict/24-25/100/section/58">still applies</a>.</p>
<h2>Less than 1% over 10 weeks</h2>
<p>But before people jump to the conclusion that home-use equals misuse, other important elements must be considered. These cases are just a handful of the early medical abortions that have taken place at home in England and Wales. Between April and June 2020, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/abortion-statistics-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-january-to-june-2020/abortion-statistics-for-england-and-wales-during-the-covid-19-pandemic">23,061</a> abortions took place at home, making up 43% of all legal abortions that occurred.</p>
<p>One study has shown that drugs dispatched to women over 10 weeks pregnant constitutes just <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3742277">0.04%</a> of the requested medicines. </p>
<p>The fact is that 86% of terminations reported in the 2020 data took place before the 10th week of pregnancy – with <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/abortion-statistics-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-january-to-june-2020/abortion-statistics-for-england-and-wales-during-the-covid-19-pandemic">50%</a> performed before seven weeks gestation. With easier access to medication, it is likely that that percentage of “early” terminations will continue to remain higher than before.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/protest-against-the-home-abortion-pill-in-scotland-is-about-judging-women-not-ensuring-their-safety-91416">Protest against the 'home abortion' pill in Scotland is about judging women, not ensuring their safety</a>
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<p>It also unclear whether women who requested the medication when over 10 weeks pregnant knew the developmental stage of their pregnancy. Women can continue to bleed while pregnant. This is known as “<a href="https://www.nhs.uk/pregnancy/related-conditions/common-symptoms/vaginal-bleeding/">spotting</a>” and it can be interpreted as a period. So it takes some women who experience this longer to realise they are pregnant.</p>
<p>Whether home-use continues or not, a very small number of women will continue to illegally access medication to end a pregnancy of a viable foetus. Abortion medication is relatively easy to obtain illegally via the internet. In 2015 and 2016, 645 abortion pills were <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/abortion-pill-access-online-illegal-decriminalise-woman-british-pregnancy-advisory-service-danger-prison-a7580566.html">seized</a> en-route to addresses across Britain. It is likely that far more made it to their destination. </p>
<p>Home-use will reduce some women’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0010782417304353">desperate need</a> for this illegal trade.</p>
<h2>Crisis pregnancies</h2>
<p>Women who are in desperate circumstances are distinct from the vast majority of abortion cases that occur. And those who do find themselves in the position of needing to end a late-term pregnancy are incredibly vulnerable. My research shows that women in this situation experience what is known as a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10691-019-09401-6">“crisis” pregnancy</a>. An unwanted pregnancy is not necessarily a crisis pregnancy, if a woman has access to safe and legal abortion services.</p>
<p>The crisis arises because of difficult life circumstances these women are enduring, such as living in violent and abusive relationships or living poverty with limited social support. </p>
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<img alt="Woman holding a pregnancy test." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383234/original/file-20210209-17-1sl8hty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=310%2C232%2C5190%2C3276&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383234/original/file-20210209-17-1sl8hty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383234/original/file-20210209-17-1sl8hty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383234/original/file-20210209-17-1sl8hty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383234/original/file-20210209-17-1sl8hty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383234/original/file-20210209-17-1sl8hty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383234/original/file-20210209-17-1sl8hty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Not all unwanted pregnancies are crisis prengancies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/single-sad-woman-complaining-holding-pregnancy-1104503756">Shutterstock/AntonioGuillem</a></span>
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<p>Considering the stage of the pregnancy, the dire context that surrounds them and the steps women take to end them, these crisis cases need to be seen as <a href="https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1275&context=mjgl">distinct</a> from “regular” abortions, which generally occur very early in the pregnancy – with just <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891405/abortion-statistics-commentary-2019.pdf">0.1% </a> taking place at or after 24 weeks, according to national data from 2019. Most of these post-24 weeks terminations will be of wanted pregnancies following a diagnosis of foetal abnormalities. </p>
<p>My research has shown that crisis pregnancy cases are, in fact, more akin to newborn infanticide. This is when a newborn baby is killed with the child’s mother being the most likely suspect. In these cases the woman often acts out of fear, shame and a belief that their pregnancy <a href="https://theconversation.com/murder-or-infanticide-understanding-the-causes-behind-the-most-shocking-of-crimes-79808">cannot exist</a>. There needs to be a debate about whether it is right to criminalise these women, considering their levels of vulnerability. I do not believe it is.</p>
<p>Whether or not home-use for early medical abortion is legally permitted, women in crisis will find means to end their pregnancy – they have in the past and they will again. </p>
<p>Governments do not ban alcohol because some people drink and drive. Why should they ban home-use abortion pills because a very small number of women will knowingly be over 10 weeks pregnant when they request the medication? </p>
<p>These vulnerable women need support. And they should not be used to prevent all women from easily accessing <a href="https://obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1471-0528.15684">safe</a> and compassionate abortion care at home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154594/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Milne received funding to support this research from the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AH/L503861/), the Socio-Legal Studies Association Research Grants Scheme 2018, and Durham Law School.
Since 2020 Emma has been a trustee of the Socio-Legal Studies Association, a charitable incorporated organisation (registered charity number 1186333).</span></em></p>English and Welsh governments are consulting the public about whether they should revoke temporary abortion rules.Emma Milne, Assistant Professor in Criminal Law and Criminal Justice, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1442052020-10-19T19:00:42Z2020-10-19T19:00:42ZBeyond the police state to COVID-safe: life after lockdown will need a novel approach<p>As second-wave outbreaks of COVID-19 around the world demonstrate, it’s a tricky transition from hard lockdowns to more relaxed, but still effective, measures. </p>
<p>The responses of different nations (Sweden and Taiwan, for example) have their champions, but the truth is there no shining example to follow on how to keep the coronavirus in check while returning, as much as possible, to living life as before.</p>
<p>Right now the government of Victoria, Australia’s second most populous state, is involved in just such an experiment. Its success in moving beyond lockdown to a sustainable “COVID-normal” will hold lessons for nations still on the upward curve of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/second-wave-of-coronavirus-continues-to-sweep-across-europe-20200914-p55v8x.html">their own second waves</a> (such as Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Britain). </p>
<p>There are also lessons for <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-now-has-a-good-roadmap-out-of-covid-19-restrictions-new-south-wales-should-emulate-it-145393">other Australian states</a>, which have relied (perhaps too much) on hard borders to keep the virus out rather than new social norms to manage the virus. </p>
<p>The Victorian response will prove to be a template to emulate. Or dissected for pitfalls to avoid.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-a-second-wave-of-covid-looms-in-the-uk-australia-is-watching-closely-146744">As a second wave of COVID looms in the UK, Australia is watching closely</a>
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<p>As behavioural economists, we’re interested in what drives cooperative, and non-cooperative behaviour. We’re particularly interested in how rules, and law enforcement, shape social norms, as well how they can inadvertently lead to greater resistance and rule-breaking.</p>
<p>One clear point evident from the Victorian experience is how blunt the tools of lockdown and law enforcement are to achieve social conformity to new behavioural norms. Moving to “COVID-normal” will require looking for other, less punitive ways to get people to do the right thing.</p>
<h2>Policing the rules</h2>
<p>Till now the approach of the Victorian government has been very blunt indeed. Its stage 4 rules have been among the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-melbourne-now-under-one-of-the-strictest-lockdowns-in-the-world/news-story/0d341224aed9b5f94d5f81327cd499de">more severe</a> imposed in any democracy in the world. These rules have been criticised as excessive or unnecessary, but they have been simple and straightforward. Both to follow and to enforce. </p>
<p>This the Victorian police force has done with zeal, empowered by harsh fines for breaches of public health directives. Though their job has undoubtedly been made harder by rule breakers emboldened by conspiracy theories, videos of police forcefully arresting resisters have both confirmed protesters’ paranoia about living in a police state, and eroded community support. </p>
<p>Polling by Roy Morgan in mid-September showed just <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8523-reasons-for-trust-distrust-of-police-vic-2020-202009280644">11% of Victorians</a> now rate the Victorian police very highly for honesty and ethical standards, compared to 37% in 2017. Overall approval has fallen from 76% to 42%. </p>
<p>This loss of trust reflects scandals such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-lawyer-x-scandal-is-a-massive-blow-to-the-criminal-justice-system-heres-why-111342">Lawyer X case</a> (which led to a royal commission). But “heavy-handedness” enforcing COVID-19 rules was the next most cited concern, with the poll taken after the circulation of videos including police forcibly removing a woman from her car and arresting a pregnant woman in her home for promoting protests on social media. Community support for <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8531-stage-4-restrictions-victoria-week-6-october-1-2020-202009300945">restrictions is also fraying</a>.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-right-lockdowns-should-be-short-and-sharp-here-are-4-other-essential-covid-19-strategies-148175">WHO is right: lockdowns should be short and sharp. Here are 4 other essential COVID-19 strategies</a>
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<h2>Deterrence, permission, resistance</h2>
<p>Laws are necessary, but philosophers since Plato have told us that societies only function when people comply with social norms when no one is looking. It is impossible to maintain social order solely through the deterrent effect, by detecting and punishing wrongdoers.</p>
<p>Gary Becker, winner of the Nobel prize for economics in 1992, was the first to apply economic theory to why people obey or break laws. In his seminal 1968 paper <a href="https://www.nber.org/chapters/c3625.pdf">Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach</a>, he explained how a “rational” individual weighs up the expected gains or losses from committing a crime and compares them to gains or losses of <em>not</em> committing a crime. That calculation includes judging the probability of being caught.</p>
<p>This framework assumes most people have an aversion to risk and that penalties (such as a large fine) therefore have a deterrent effect. </p>
<p>The problem is humans aren’t necessarily rational. Driven by <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0033-2909.127.2.267">feelings rather than cognitive assessments</a>, most of us inaccurately assess probabilities. Behavioural research suggests <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982211011912">80% of us are prone to optimism bias</a> when assessing personal risk. We tend to underestimate the likelihood of experiencing bad events such as divorce, being in a car accident, contracting a disease or getting caught breaking the rules. </p>
<p>While it’s impossible to know the motivations of the more than 20,000 Victorians so far fined for breaking lockdown rules, the anecdotal evidence suggests most have simply underestimated the chance of being caught, such as breaking the 5 km travel limit to buy a <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/victoria-police/victoria-police-give-man-buying-ps4-controller-covid-fine-in-maribyrnong-c-1356574">PlayStation controller</a>, or curfew <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/victoria-police-fine-223-people-for-breaking-virus-rules/news-story/a13ffa89e8c31257caa7431a0556f3e6">to buy cigarettes</a>.</p>
<h2>The limits of perception</h2>
<p>Yet as the Victorian government moves to relax its restrictions, its main solution to ensuring adherence to the more complicated rules for “COVID-normal” social interactions appears to be increasing penalties for breaches. The fine for breaching social gathering restrictions, for example, has been increased from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-28/victoria-police-wont-use-discretion-coronavirus-gathering-fine/12710184">A$1,652 to A$4,957</a>.</p>
<p>While these will have some effect, research suggests “deterrence perceptions” depend on an individual’s <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1477370811416415?journalCode=euca">pre-existing “crime propensity”</a>. That is, most people have no inclination to commit crimes like theft, vandalism and assault, so “deterrence perceptions are largely irrelevant”.</p>
<p>This make Victoria’s next stage of norm-enforcement highly problematic, given behaviour now outlawed isn’t criminal per se, but what used to be normal socialising. As questions asked at Victorian premier Danial Andrew’s press conference on Sunday indicate, there’s a much greater likelihood of confusion about rules – and therefore breaches. </p>
<h2>Encouraging intrinsic motivation</h2>
<p>The big question is how to move beyond external (or extrinsic) incentives and encourage intrinsic motivations. According to psychologists Richard Ryan and Edward Deci, who studied <a href="https://mmrg.pbworks.com/f/Ryan,+Deci+00.pdf">extrinsic and intrinsic motivations in school students</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Because extrinsically motivated behaviours are not inherently interesting and thus must initially be externally prompted, the primary reason people are likely to be willing to do the behaviours is that they are valued by significant others to whom they feel (or would like to feel) connected, whether that be a family, a peer group, or a society.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Economists Raymond Fisman and Edwards Miguel illustrate the power of non-punitive “nudges” to encourage these motivators in their book <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7s5tw">Economic Gangsters (2010)</a>. A classic example comes from Bogota, the capital of Columbia, where in the 1990s new mayor Antanas Mockus decided to tackle crime and problems such as traffic fatalities using “cultural persuasion” rather than more law enforcement.</p>
<p>Rather than employing more police to patrol the roads, the city instead employed hundreds of mime artists to mimick and ridicule drivers and pedestrians doing the wrong thing. As <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/opinion/the-art-of-changing-a-city.html">Mockus explained</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The idea was that instead of cops handing out tickets and pocketing fines, these performers would “police” drivers’ behaviour by communicating with mime – for instance, pretending to be hurt or offended when a vehicle ignored the pedestrian right of way in a crosswalk. Could this system, which boiled down to publicly signalled approval or disapproval, really work?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The evidence is it did. Within a decade <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2004/03/academic-turns-city-into-a-social-experiment/">traffic deaths were halved</a>. Other novel strategies helped cut Bogota’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2013/oct/28/antanas-mockus-bogota-mayor">homicide rate by 70%</a>.</p>
<h2>Finding a new normal</h2>
<p>These are obviously long-term results. They don’t provide a perfect template for governments seeking immediate society-wide adherence to new COVID-safe behavioural norms. There are no easy solutions, particularly given a small segment of the population is convinced flouting the rules is a noble stand against tyranny.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-is-almost-out-of-lockdown-its-time-to-trust-melburnians-to-make-their-own-covid-safe-decisions-148316">Melbourne is almost out of lockdown. It's time to trust Melburnians to make their own COVID-safe decisions</a>
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<p>But with Victorian courts already facing a huge backlog of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/only-a-fraction-of-lockdown-fines-in-victoria-have-been-paid/12760192">unpaid or contested fines</a>, and the high likelihood we will need to practice “COVID-safe” behavioural norms for at least a year, it’s time to start thinking about other ways to promote social cooperation other than the long arm of the law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Law enforcement is a blunt tool to achieve social conformity with COVID-safe rule. It’s time to start thinking about other strategies to promote new norms.Meg Elkins, Senior Lecturer with School of Economics, Finance and Marketing and Behavioural Business Lab Member, RMIT UniversityRobert Hoffmann, Professor of Economics and Chair of Behavioural Business Lab, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1427102020-07-16T20:02:52Z2020-07-16T20:02:52ZVital Signs: the cost of lockdowns is nowhere near as big as we have been told<p>As a second COVID-19 lockdown looms in New South Wales, there is much discussion about the economic costs of doing so.</p>
<p>But since the start of this pandemic there has been profound confusion in many quarters about the economic cost of the <em>virus</em> compared to the economic cost of <em>lockdowns</em>.</p>
<p>It should come as no surprise that having a highly contagious virus with a significant fatality rate running through the community is bad for the economy. </p>
<p>People are afraid to congregate in public or catch public transport or taxis. People don’t want to spend much money when they have debts to pay and their job might be at risk.</p>
<p>This leads to what I have called a “self-lockdown”. No matter what the government mandates, people cut back on economic activity.</p>
<p>Of course, government-coordinated lockdowns entail an extra short-term cost to the economy. Closing pubs and restaurants means those businesses, for a time, have zero revenue.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-evidence-that-lockdowns-work-may-not-be-gold-standard-but-its-good-137540">Vital Signs: The evidence that lockdowns work may not be gold standard, but it's good</a>
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<p>But how much of the reduction in economic activity is due to the virus, and how much to government lockdowns?</p>
<p>It is crucial to understand this. Because it is the incremental cost of the lockdowns that represents the investment we make in the economy of the future by getting the virus under control. If we think the cost of lockdowns is higher than it really is, we won’t enact them in cases where on balance we should.</p>
<h2>Evidence from the United States</h2>
<p>The best evidence to date on this matter comes from <a href="https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=142095081069090014096119085070120113014042095000089091121085082094073011121024011092119034022008009024050127003069097000121031006007037073081009103121095116024127104037082049074090104087126017115007025064089065124031065071117096107083092105097031119123&EXT=pdf">a remarkable paper</a> circulated in June by University of Chicago economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson.</p>
<p>To analyse the causal effect of government policy on the US economy during the initial spread of COVID-19, they used mobile phone data to measure foot traffic at 2.25 million individual businesses across 110 industries in the US. </p>
<p>To estimate what proportion of lower foot traffic was due to self-lockdown rather than government-imposed lockdown, they looked at differences between businesses with customer “<a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/commuting-zones-and-labor-market-areas/">commuting zones</a>” spanning state or county jurisdictions with different legal restrictions. As they put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This leverages two related types of variation: businesses in border-spanning commuting zones where jurisdictions impose shelter-in-place orders at different times (e.g., northern Illinois when Illinois placed a sheltering order on March 20th while Wisconsin waited until the following week), and businesses in commuting zones where a jurisdiction never imposed an order (e.g., the Quad Cities area, where the Illinois towns of Moline and Rock Island faced stay-at-home orders but bordering Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa, did not).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Goolsbee and Syverson found total consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, but legal restrictions accounted for just 7 percentage points of this. That is, it caused less than 12% of the total effect. </p>
<p>Breaking down the data further, they show fear of infection largely drove individual decisions to reduce activity.</p>
<p>In fact, foot traffic “started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly influenced by the number of COVID deaths reported in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from busier, more crowded stores toward smaller, less busy stores in the same industry”.</p>
<p>Strikingly, US states that decided to repeal shutdown orders witnessed recoveries of a similar, symmetric size. This is further evidence of the modest incremental impact of lockdowns relative to the larger impact of the virus itself.</p>
<h2>Lessons for Australia</h2>
<p>We need to stop thinking about lockdowns as representing the total economic hit we take from COVID-19. The virus itself is hugely damaging. Lockdowns add to that, but come with an important benefit – getting the virus under control.</p>
<p>Early in the pandemic, the Australian Treasury estimated Australia’s GDP would fall 10-12% in the June quarter.</p>
<p>Since Treasurer Josh Frydenberg cited this estimate in his <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/speeches/address-national-press-club">National Press Club address</a> on May 5, many have used it to calculate the the cost of a national lockdown at A$4 billion a week.</p>
<p>That is, Australia’s GDP is about A$2 trillion annually, so a 10% contraction is $200 billion a year, or about $4 billion a week.</p>
<p>But is this really the cost of the lockdown? How much of the estimated 10% drop in GDP for the June quarter is due to the virus and self-lockdown, not government lockdowns? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303">The costs of the shutdown are overestimated -- they're outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit</a>
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<p>If the Goolsbee-Syverson numbers translate to Australia, then the lockdown cost is closer to A$450 million a week.</p>
<p>That’s still a lot, but a six-week nationwide investment of $2.7 billion to get the virus under control and boost consumer and business confidence was money well spent.</p>
<h2>Berejiklian’s dilemma</h2>
<p>NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said she doesn’t want to enact a second lockdown because of the hit to economy.</p>
<p>If the current outbreak can be dealt with through rapid contract tracing, testing and isolation, this may be wise.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-were-testing-50-000-australians-a-day-for-covid-19-should-it-be-6-5-million-142255">Vital Signs: We're testing 50,000 Australians a day for COVID-19. Should it be 6.5 million?</a>
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<p>But if the number of daily cases gets beyond a manageable point, a lockdown might be the only way to stop the spread of the virus.</p>
<p>The best evidence to date shows we cannot have a well-functioning economy with COVID-19 running rampant. That leads to a very costly self-lockdown, regardless of what the government does.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden was formerly a faculty member at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.</span></em></p>Research suggests the coronavirus pandemic’s greatest impact is due to people changing their behaviour voluntarily. So we may be overestimating the costs of government restrictions.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1426412020-07-15T20:01:10Z2020-07-15T20:01:10ZCan Australian businesses force customers to wear a mask? Here’s what the law says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347509/original/file-20200715-27-herz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=128%2C149%2C2636%2C1670&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Loren Elliott/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Victorians are now being asked to <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/face-masks-covid-19">wear a mask in public</a> if they can’t socially distance. </p>
<p>It is possible this practice may be encouraged more widely across Australia, amid a push from health professionals to <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorians-and-anyone-else-at-risk-should-now-be-wearing-face-masks-heres-how-to-make-one-141980">increase mask-wearing</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorians-and-anyone-else-at-risk-should-now-be-wearing-face-masks-heres-how-to-make-one-141980">Victorians, and anyone else at risk, should now be wearing face masks. Here's how to make one</a>
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<p>People will of course still want to visit private spaces, including offices, GP clinics and churches. They will want to go shopping and visit cafes. </p>
<p>So, can businesses refuse entry to customers who are not wearing a mask? Similarly, can they refuse entry to anyone not sanitising their hands? </p>
<p>What are our rights and obligations when it comes to mask wearing?</p>
<h2>Business owners can set the rules</h2>
<p>Australian law, quite simply, says that private landowners or occupiers can take reasonable steps to protect themselves, their employees and people <a href="https://www.australianacademicpress.com.au/books/details/250/Professional_Practice_in_Crime_Prevention_and_Security_Management">on their property</a>. </p>
<p>So it would be legal for businesses - including cafes and supermarkets - to make it a condition of entry that customers wear a mask and sanitise their hands. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347512/original/file-20200715-17-1m4grqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347512/original/file-20200715-17-1m4grqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347512/original/file-20200715-17-1m4grqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347512/original/file-20200715-17-1m4grqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347512/original/file-20200715-17-1m4grqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347512/original/file-20200715-17-1m4grqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347512/original/file-20200715-17-1m4grqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supermarkets and other shops can take ‘reasonable steps’ to keep people safe on their premises.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Loren Elliott/ AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It makes little difference whether the business is a GP clinic rather than, say, a greengrocer, in establishing their right to exclude patrons. However, in practical terms, people should realise the increased potential for catching/transmitting COVID-19 in a healthcare facility makes it even more important for the business owner to exclude those failing to wear a mask.</p>
<h2>Entry conditions are nothing new</h2>
<p>Entry rules and safety requirements are concepts we are already very familiar with in Australia.</p>
<p>We know and accept that nightclubs and private bars can enforce dress codes without fear of running afoul of the law. Indeed, you cannot board a plane or enter big public arenas without a bag check. </p>
<p>Schools have been instructing students’ families to accept “no hat, no play” for years due to the dangers of children being sunburnt.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-face-mask-should-i-wear-142373">Which face mask should I wear?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Moreover, the law mandates seatbelts in cars and helmets for cyclists. These infringements on personal liberty are seen as acceptable - in both practice and law - because they protect both individuals and community safety.</p>
<h2>It’s also about occupational health and safety</h2>
<p>When it comes to businesses making customers wear a mask, there are important occupational health and safety considerations as well. The <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/cescr.aspx">International Covenant</a> on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights notes employees have a right to “safe and healthy working conditions”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347518/original/file-20200715-29-1y2tip5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347518/original/file-20200715-29-1y2tip5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347518/original/file-20200715-29-1y2tip5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347518/original/file-20200715-29-1y2tip5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347518/original/file-20200715-29-1y2tip5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347518/original/file-20200715-29-1y2tip5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347518/original/file-20200715-29-1y2tip5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Victorians under ‘stage 3’ restrictions have been encouraged to wear a mask in public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scott Barbour/ AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The United Nation’s 2011 <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/documents/publications/guidingprinciplesbusinesshr_en.pdf">Protect Respect and Remedy Framework</a> also emphasises the need for businesses to take adequate preventive measures to ensure the health and safety of workers. </p>
<p>Following a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/R2002-001_Law_Neg_Final.pdf">major 2002 report</a> to the federal government on negligence law reform, civil liability amendments were enacted in all jurisdictions across Australia.</p>
<p>South Australia’s <a href="https://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/LZ/C/A/CIVIL%20LIABILITY%20ACT%201936/CURRENT/1936.2267.AUTH.PDF">Civil Liability Act</a> provides a useful example of the scope of the reforms. It says when examining “standard of care”, a court must take into account, among other matters,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the measures (if any) taken [by the building occupier] to eliminate, reduce or warn against the danger; and the extent (if at all) to which it would have been reasonable and practicable for the occupier to take measures to eliminate, reduce or warn against the danger.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>We don’t need ‘mask rage’ here</h2>
<p>In the United States - where the political and COVID-19 situations are admittedly quite different from Australia’s - there is a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53378439">heated debate</a> about mask wearing. This has involved multiple cases of “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/10/coronavirus-surges-republican-territory-so-does-rage-over-masks/5411981002/">mask rage</a>”, featuring full-on scuffles in shops over people’s refusal to wear a mask. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mask-resistance-during-a-pandemic-isnt-new-in-1918-many-americans-were-slackers-141687">Mask resistance during a pandemic isn't new – in 1918 many Americans were 'slackers'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This ongoing mask conflict recently gave rise to a sign, <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/bar-praised-best-sign-ever-22333922">reportedly</a> put up by a Portland bar, that was then shared widely on social media. It captures the essence of the legal position here in Australia, too. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1281041562420383746"}"></div></p>
<h2>We can also use common sense</h2>
<p>It is also important to note that that businesses, in setting their rules, cannot act in a discriminatory way. The law protects us against a range of discriminatory behaviours. The potential for, say, <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2018C00125">disability</a> or <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/cohrara2006433/s14.html">religious</a> discrimination might allow a person to legitimately refuse to wear a mask. </p>
<p>In that event, the shop would need to make alternative arrangements for that customer.</p>
<p>Ultimately, however, when it comes to taking protective action, as a community we need to rely as much on commonsense and common courtesies as anything else.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142641/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre is a member of the ALP State Council (SA).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juliette McIntyre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Melburnians are encouraged to wear masks in public, shops and cafes around Australia can already make mask-wearing a condition of entry.Rick Sarre, Adjunct Professor of Law and Criminal Justice, University of South AustraliaJuliette McIntyre, Lecturer in Law, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1421622020-07-07T11:36:26Z2020-07-07T11:36:26ZMelbourne’s lockdown came too late. It’s time to consider moving infected people outside the home<p>From midnight Wednesday, all of Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire will return to Stage 3 lockdown for six weeks. There are only four reasons for residents to leave their homes: shopping for essentials, care-giving, exercise, and work and study if it can’t be done from home.</p>
<p>But it should have happened weeks ago.</p>
<p>It’s now time to consider measures aimed at stemming the spread among families, by admitting infected people to hospitals or other health facilities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/metropolitan-melbourne-and-mitchell-shire-return-to-lockdown-this-is-just-how-vigilant-we-have-to-be-until-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-found-142165">Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire return to lockdown: this is just how vigilant we have to be until a COVID-19 vaccine is found</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<iframe title="Victoria's COVID-19 case curve - July 7" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-uID2E" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uID2E/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="543"></iframe>
<h2>Victoria was a slowly boiling frog</h2>
<p>The problem with watching daily numbers is small numbers do not show a clear pattern until it’s too late. To choose a larger period to observe a pattern, epidemiologists usually use the length of time an average person takes to become infected (the incubation period). If you use 14 days (roughly twice the incubation period) this approach is a classic epidemiological method to tell if an outbreak is getting out of control. </p>
<p>Using this method, the two weeks up to June 18 suggested the spread was becoming out of control. From June 5 to June 18 the total number of cases was 102. Then the subsequent 14-day periods doubled to 224 cases and doubled again to 441 cases. </p>
<p>As these numbers show, controlling the outbreak becomes extremely difficult once this number hits 100.</p>
<p>The cumulative number of cases from the last 14 days in Victoria is now 1,048. This is similar to the numbers seen Australia-wide in late March, near the peak of Australia’s pandemic so far.</p>
<p>Victoria will likely see even greater increases in the next few days, especially as people who don’t realise they’re infected spread the virus further.</p>
<p>Ultimately, governments around the world face the tough choice of being proactive or reactive during the pandemic. Being proactive to small spikes might be perceived as being heavy-handed, especially economically. Victoria, so far, has been more reactive than proactive — but the time has come to consider different approaches.</p>
<h2>Admitting infected people to hospital</h2>
<p>We know many people pick up the virus in their own homes from another family member, even if the infected individual isolates in one room. This is partially because indoor environments often have crowding and poor ventilation. It’s also quite difficult to practice good sanitation, cleaning high-touch surfaces properly with detergent or bleach.</p>
<p>The best option is to relocate an infected family member to reduce the risk of spread to the rest of the family. An option is to relocate them to hospitals or other suitable purpose-built health facilities. Victoria’s numbers will get worse unless infected individuals are relocated. This is a particular risk for crowded high-rise housing.</p>
<p>Victorians should also be wearing masks in all public places. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9.pdf">Recent evidence</a> suggests wearing masks reduces the risk of catching and spreading the virus. The World Health Organisation released <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak">updated guidelines</a> on June 5 acknowledging masks can reduce transmission when physical distancing can’t be maintained or in places of high prevalence. Metropolitan Melbourne is now a place of high prevalence.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorians-and-anyone-else-at-risk-should-now-be-wearing-face-masks-heres-how-to-make-one-141980">Victorians, and anyone else at risk, should now be wearing face masks. Here's how to make one</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Ring-fencing didn’t work</h2>
<p>Ring-fencing is an effective control method when the pattern of infection is not the same across regions. Recently, China lifted lockdown of Wuhan and then ring-fenced hotspots to effectively repress a spike in case numbers.</p>
<p>As of July 1, hotspots in Melbourne were ring-fenced, which gave other regions with very low or zero cases a reprieve from unnecessary restrictions.</p>
<p>But we’ve since seen cases <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/from-hope-to-hotspots-how-coronavirus-cases-are-surging-in-the-suburbs-20200704-p558z5.html">leaking out of these hotspots</a> and rising rates of community transmission. This forced the government to apply a wider lockdown.</p>
<p>Further, ring-fencing is an effective control method when people’s needs — food, heating and internet access — are well looked after. If we get that wrong, we lose people’s collective good will and cooperation. The “hard lockdown” of public housing towers in Melbourne’s north and northwest hasn’t been done in a compassionate manner that meets people’s immediate needs, which erodes trust in the process. </p>
<p>It also lacks epidemiological sense. Forcing people into even closer quarters creates a pressure cooker environment where family outbreaks are even more likely.</p>
<p>A pandemic is a long term project, so it’s essential trust is built and maintained over time. Building trust is an investment in resilience that enables our community to continue to respond well during this extended outbreak. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/metropolitan-melbourne-and-mitchell-shire-return-to-lockdown-this-is-just-how-vigilant-we-have-to-be-until-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-found-142165">Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire return to lockdown: this is just how vigilant we have to be until a COVID-19 vaccine is found</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Important lessons</h2>
<p>All is not lost. To prevent the virus spreading further all Melburnians should wear a mask when in public places.</p>
<p>It’s widely hoped the lockdown will help to reduce case numbers but this must be done with compassion and ethics.</p>
<p>Victoria’s experience should be a lesson to governments everywhere that it’s crucial to act quickly and early when flareups occur. Don’t wait until the moment of crisis arrives. </p>
<p>It’s also time for the Victorian government to closely consider how to reduce transmission among families, and part of that may be housing infected people outside the home until they are well again. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is supported by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/partners/judith-neilson-institute">Judith Neilson Institute for Journalism and Ideas</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142162/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary-Louise McLaws is affiliated with The World Health Organization Infection Prevention and Control Guidance Development Group for COVID-19 </span></em></p>The best option is for infected people to be admitted to hospitals or other suitable health facilities. This will help prevent transmission within families.Mary-Louise McLaws, Professor of Epidemiology Healthcare Infection and Infectious Diseases Control, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1417052020-06-30T07:48:56Z2020-06-30T07:48:56ZThese 10 postcodes are back in Stage 3 coronavirus lockdown. Here’s what that means<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344723/original/file-20200630-103683-1oruxrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C247%2C3115%2C2891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Scheuerle/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has announced ten “hotspot” postcodes in the state will return to Stage 3 lockdown measures from 11:59pm on Wednesday night, in an effort to control a resurgence of COVID-19 in the state.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345154/original/file-20200702-2640-7jk13b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>“These ‘hot zones’ will be required to return to Stage 3 Stay at Home restrictions – until at least 29 July,” the premier <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-from-the-premier-47/">told</a> reporters, adding that if you live in these locations, there will again only be four reasons to be out:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Shopping for food and supplies, care and caregiving, exercise, and study or work – if you can’t do it from home.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Here’s what that means in practice for people in those areas — and what this development tells us about the bigger picture.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-i-visit-my-boyfriend-my-parents-can-i-go-fishing-or-bushwalking-coronavirus-rules-in-nsw-queensland-and-victoria-explained-135308">Can I visit my boyfriend? My parents? Can I go fishing or bushwalking? Coronavirus rules in NSW, Queensland and Victoria explained</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Caregiving, exercise and work</h2>
<p>On caregiving, the inference is people in these areas should only be leaving home to care for another person if it is somebody who truly needs care (although in previous lockdown announcements, authorities did <a href="https://twitter.com/VictorianCHO/status/1245228717351170048">ease</a> their approach when it comes to seeing a boyfriend or girlfriend). </p>
<p>On exercise, it means no working out in big groups or in fitness classes.</p>
<p>And the message with work is if you can work from home, you must.</p>
<p>Andrews said today businesses that have recently begun to reopen, such as beauty parlours, gyms, libraries and swimming pools – will again be restricted. Dine-in is off the menu in these areas; it will be take-away or delivery only for cafes and restaurants.</p>
<p>“And regular police patrols, both in these zones and outside them, will make sure people are abiding by the restrictions,” he said. </p>
<h2>Three key messages</h2>
<p>From a public health perspective, there are three key messages infectious disease experts are very keen to get across.</p>
<p>The first is to stay home if you are unwell. This cannot be stressed enough. As the premier said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We know close personal contact has been the source of the spread. That’s why we need local residents to do the right thing: assume you may be infectious – and act accordingly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The number two priority is physical distancing — that means keeping more than 1.5 metres apart from other people (with whom you do not live) wherever possible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344726/original/file-20200630-103653-tfep86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344726/original/file-20200630-103653-tfep86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344726/original/file-20200630-103653-tfep86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344726/original/file-20200630-103653-tfep86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344726/original/file-20200630-103653-tfep86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344726/original/file-20200630-103653-tfep86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344726/original/file-20200630-103653-tfep86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And the third key message is: get tested. We know that, when asked, around a thousand Victorians have refused testing and this is really unhelpful. If you have any of the signs of COVID-19 — such as cough, fever, sore throat or any of the symptoms listed <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-long-does-it-take-to-get-sick-how-infectious-is-it-will-you-always-have-a-fever-covid-19-basics-explained-132963">here</a> — you should be getting tested. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344725/original/file-20200630-103653-1didudl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344725/original/file-20200630-103653-1didudl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344725/original/file-20200630-103653-1didudl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344725/original/file-20200630-103653-1didudl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344725/original/file-20200630-103653-1didudl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344725/original/file-20200630-103653-1didudl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344725/original/file-20200630-103653-1didudl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents of these suburbs will have to work from home when possible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Infection control measures only work when they’re followed</h2>
<p>Andrews said today a number of recent cases are “linked to an infection control breach in the hotel quarantine program”, the operation of which will be the subject of an inquiry led by a former judge. </p>
<p>A lot of these recent cases can be what’s called “genomically-related”. That means we can identify the source and then track the spread of the virus from case to case. In this case, it’s been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/30/melbourne-hotspot-lockdowns-announced-as-victoria-battles-coronavirus-outbreaks">reported</a> it may have been a breach in infection control precautions at the quarantine hotels. Had those precautions (such as meticulous hand hygiene, physical distancing, and not working when symptomatic and isolating when unwell) been followed, then we likely wouldn’t be seeing this outbreak.</p>
<p>So it’s a good reminder that it’s one thing to have guidelines on infection control but they are useless if people aren’t following them. </p>
<h2>A marathon, not a sprint</h2>
<p>What’s encouraging is authorities have acted quickly and we have the testing and response infrastructure in place to manage surges if and when they occur. </p>
<p>A spike in COVID-19 cases in certain areas is worrying but not entirely unexpected. Public health experts have long expected cases may surge in pockets, and lockdown-style measures may have to be reintroduced and eased in response to local outbreaks. </p>
<p>Australia-wide, it’s reasonable to expect we will have clusters here and there along the way. We still have issues with people who are asymptomatic – people who feel fine but are still carrying and spreading the virus. And there will occasionally be breaches in recommendations and guidelines. It’s not ideal but it’s human nature. </p>
<p>These developments serve as a reminder we are still very much in a pandemic. This is a marathon, not a sprint and, in fact, we don’t know where we are in the marathon – we may not even be halfway yet. </p>
<p>We need to come to terms with the fact we will need to follow the basics of infection control for some time – to practise good hand hygiene, some degree of physical distancing, stay home if unwell and get tested if symptoms arise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Russo is the President of the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. He is a member of the COVID Evidence Taskforce Steering Committee, the Infection Control Expert Group to the Department of Health, the Australian Strategic and Technical Advisory Group on AMR, the Healthcare Associated Infection Advisory Committee to the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, and a member of the Australian College of Nursing. He is also the recipient of a NHMRC Early Career Fellowship, and has received research funding from the Rosemary Norman Foundation, Cardinal Health, Australian College of Nursing and the Cabrini Institute.</span></em></p>The Victorian spike serves as a reminder that we are still very much in a pandemic. We need to come to terms with the fact we will need follow the basics of infection control for some time.Philip Russo, Associate Professor, Director Cabrini Monash University Department of Nursing Research, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1412872020-06-30T05:21:05Z2020-06-30T05:21:05ZCoronavirus spike: why getting people to follow restrictions is harder the second time around<p>With residents in ten Melbourne postcodes <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-30/victoria-coronavirus-hotspot-local-lockdowns-in-melbourne/12407138">banned from non-essential travel</a> until at least July 29, the need for continued vigilance is clear.</p>
<p>Across Victoria, the ongoing spike in coronavirus cases means a <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-victoria?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvo3Ui6io6gIVTA4rCh2UrwHKEAAYASAAEgK8CfD_BwE">range of restrictions</a> are still in place, yet for people outside the worst-affected areas these restrictions may seem more like guidelines than rules. </p>
<p>There may be many different interpretations of the reinstated restrictions. Also, having been granted some freedoms after the initial lockdown period, people will be reluctant to go back.</p>
<p>Together, this makes compliance even more difficult to enforce. During the
initial stages of lockdown in April, we carried out a survey to find out what factors motivated public attitudes towards compliance. Our findings will be particularly pertinent in the coming weeks. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1277537764515262464"}"></div></p>
<h2>Should I stay or should I go?</h2>
<p>You could be forgiven for feeling like the messaging around coronavirus restrictions <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-27/rural-doctors-association-mixed-covid-19-messages-concerns/12291664">has been mixed</a>. </p>
<p>Even during early lockdown, when there was less <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-ethnic-clusters-due-to-cultural-confusion/news-story/70322fbb0a5268c7ca67c617d63dfbd8">confusion</a> about what constituted non-compliance, people were either misunderstanding or flouting the rules. Police issued thousands of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-state-rakes-in-millions-fines-restriction-breaches/d33bf9f0-9f41-4e1f-918c-a238c15487d7">infringement notices</a> around the country.</p>
<p>To what extent can we now “trust” Australians to comply with the latest advice from health authorities? Will complacency creep in? Early evidence in Victoria suggests this is a fragile situation.</p>
<h2>A rule-breaking trend</h2>
<p>Even before <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-08/black-lives-matter-protest-heightens-coronavirus-fears/12331680">mass protests for the Black Lives Matter</a> movement, there was a great deal of commentary regarding the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-really-rely-on-people-to-isolate-when-theyre-told-to-experts-explain-134027">public’s compliance</a> during the early stages of the pandemic. </p>
<p>In response, our team at the Griffith Criminology Institute carried out <a href="https://blogs.griffith.edu.au/gci-insights/2020/06/02/morals-duty-or-risk-examining-predictors-of-compliance-with-covid-19-social-distancing-restrictions/">a nationwide survey</a>) of 1,595 Australians.</p>
<p>The survey began five weeks after mandatory social distancing restrictions were introduced. It asked participants to report their level of compliance with social distancing restrictions during the past week. It found a substantial proportion of participants were not adhering to mandatory social distancing rules. Specifically:</p>
<ul>
<li>50.3% of respondents said they socialised in person with friends and/or relatives they didn’t live with in the past week</li>
<li>45.5% said they left the house “without a really good reason”</li>
<li>39.6% said they travelled for leisure </li>
<li>5.95% said they went shopping for essential or non-essential items with COVID-19 symptoms, and</li>
<li>57.2% said they went shopping for non-essential items when healthy.</li>
</ul>
<p>The rate of non-compliance with restrictions increased as time passed.</p>
<h2>Who is culpable?</h2>
<p>The research also examined factors that predicted who was most likely to comply with restrictions.</p>
<p>The two primary predictors were feelings of “duty to obey the government” and “personal morality”. Simply, people were most compliant if they felt a stronger duty to obey government instructions, and if they thought it was morally wrong to flout the rules. These findings suggest social norms, rather than fear of COVID-19, motivated compliance the most. </p>
<p>The findings also revealed age and gender both had a bearing, with older participants and women being more likely to comply.</p>
<p>Those who perceived a greater health risk from COVID-19 were also more willing to follow the rules, as well as those who felt there was a higher risk of being caught and fined for breaking them. However, these factors were nowhere near as important as feelings of duty to obey or personal morality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-lockdown-rules-will-not-be-obeyed-by-everyone-134600">Why coronavirus lockdown rules will not be obeyed by everyone</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does this mean for the future?</h2>
<p>Compared with the rest of the world, Australia has had early success in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. A major reason for this has been people’s willingness to observe restrictions.</p>
<p>But ensuring continued compliance with measures that limit personal liberties is a tenuous game. Australia has so far had <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-11/what-is-community-transmission-of-coronavirus-covid-19/12142638">few instances of community transmission</a>, and this knowledge may make people complacent.</p>
<p>During the H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic of 2009, <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/339/bmj.b2651">UK researchers</a> found a majority of people surveyed were negligent about social distancing measures. Only 26% reported feeling anxious about contracting the disease, and 72% said they had not adopted the recommended hygiene measures such as hand washing. </p>
<p>Moreover, only 5% said they avoided large crowds or public transport during the pandemic. And those not adhering to social distancing requirements also tended to think the outbreak had been purposely exaggerated by authorities. </p>
<h2>Is enforcement the answer?</h2>
<p>Simply, no. It’s hard to enforce compliance with personal hygiene habits, and it’s almost impossible to detect people who leave their house when unwell.</p>
<p>Our survey indicated fear of punishment played little role in motivating Australians to observe social distancing rules during lockdown. Personal morality and feeling obligated to abide by recommendations were more important deciders.</p>
<p>Therefore, as uncertainty spreads among Victorians, authorities should focus on educating citizens and reminding them of COVID-19’s potential dangers. Given the <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-clinicians.pdf">highly infectious nature of the virus</a>, even minor transgressions could have disastrous consequences. It’s too soon to “relax”. </p>
<p>Importantly, the best strategy would be to persuade citizens it’s their moral responsibility to follow the rules, as this will help protect the most vulnerable among us.</p>
<p>To an extent we’re already seeing this, as businesses encourage patrons to use hand sanitiser before entering stores, set limits on the number of people allowed inside and remind patrons to maintain their distance. </p>
<p>A helpful tactic may be to remind the public to regularly ask friends and family to maintain their personal hygiene, and restrict their movements when possible. It’s important to reiterate we are “all in this together”. It may also help if businesses are more motivated to work closely with authorities.</p>
<p>That said, effectively marketing “moral responsibility” will likely prove a public relations challenge, involving a fine balance between citizens’ freedom with state mechanisms for compliance. Only time will tell whether we can pull this off and keep COVID-19 transmission under control.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-really-rely-on-people-to-isolate-when-theyre-told-to-experts-explain-134027">Can we really rely on people to isolate when they're told to? Experts explain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristina Murphy receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harley Williamson, Jennifer Boddy, and Patrick O'Leary do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A survey conducted in April revealed more than half the participants flouted social distancing rules to go shopping for non-essential items, and visit friends or family.Kristina Murphy, Professor and ARC Future Fellow, Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith UniversityHarley Williamson, PhD candidate, Griffith UniversityJennifer Boddy, Associate Professor and Deputy Head of School (Learning and Teaching), Griffith UniversityPatrick O'Leary, Professor and Director of Violence Research and Prevention Program, Griffith Criminology Institute and School of Human Services and Social Work, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1412862020-06-24T20:15:41Z2020-06-24T20:15:41ZGiving your details to restaurants and cafes: your rights, their obligations and privacy concerns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343669/original/file-20200624-132988-168jsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C16%2C2732%2C1849&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While lockdown restrictions have eased in many places, the coronavirus threat isn’t over yet. The number of cases globally has surpassed <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-largest-single-day-jump-in-covid-19-cases-recorded-worldwide-global-cases-pass-nine-million-20200623-p55567.html">9 million</a>, and infections have slowly crept back <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-largest-single-day-jump-in-covid-19-cases-recorded-worldwide-global-cases-pass-nine-million-20200623-p55567.html">for Victoria</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-many-countries-the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-accelerating-not-slowing-141238">In many countries the coronavirus pandemic is accelerating, not slowing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Restaurants, pubs and cafes have been among the first places to which people have flocked for some respite from social isolation. In many cases, diners must provide their personal details to these venues for potential contact tracing later on. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, there’s a lack of clarity regarding what the best options are for businesses, and many aren’t following official guidelines. </p>
<h2>Keeping records</h2>
<p>In the rush to reopen while also abiding by government requirements, many businesses are resorting to collecting customer information using pen and paper. </p>
<p>This entails sharing the stationery, which goes against the basic principles of social distancing. Your written details can also be seen by other diners and staff, triggering <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-14/covid-confusion-as-cafes-warned-about-privacy-dangers/12351314">privacy concerns</a>. </p>
<p>You wouldn’t normally leave your name, phone number, email, address or any combination of these on a piece of paper in public – so why now?</p>
<p>Businesses collecting personal information (that don’t fall within the <a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/privacy-for-organisations/small-business/">small business exemption</a>) must abide by the <a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/australian-privacy-principles">Australian Privacy Principles</a>, under the Privacy Act 1988. This requires they “take reasonable steps to protect the personal information collected or held”.</p>
<p>The federal government has also released a <a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/guidance-and-advice/guidance-for-businesses-collecting-personal-information-for-contact-tracing/">guide</a> to collecting personal information for contact tracing purposes. This must be used in conjunction with individual Directions or Orders from certain states and territories. </p>
<p>The Privacy Act 1988 and the guide generally don’t apply to businesses that fall within the small business exemption. So while these establishments may be obliged to collect and securely handle contact details under an applicable Direction or Order, they are not legally bound by the Privacy Act. </p>
<p>Below are some examples of state-specific Directions or Orders. </p>
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<td> <br><span>QLD </span></td>
<td> <br>Must keep contact information about all guests and staff including name, address, mobile phone number and the date/time period of patronage for a period of 56 days. <br> <br><a href="https://www.health.qld.gov.au/system-governance/legislation/cho-public-health-directions-under-expanded-public-health-act-powers/business-activity-undertaking-direction" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">More details here.</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <br><span>ACT </span></td>
<td> <br>Businesses should ask for the first name and contact phone number of each attendee.<br> <br><a href="https://legislation.act.gov.au/View/ni/2020-332/current/PDF/2020-332.PDF" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">More details here.</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <br><span>SA </span></td>
<td> <br>Only real estate agents, wedding and funeral businesses should collect personal information from customers. But not restaurants. <br> <br><a href="https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/emergency-declarations/business-closures" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">More details here:</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <br><span>NSW </span></td>
<td> <br>Keep the name and mobile number or email address for all staff and dine-in customers for at least 28 days.<br><br><a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/industry-guidelines/restaurants-and-cafes-including-food-courts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">More details here</a>. </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The guidance also outlines how businesses should handle customers’ contact information. The relevant parts are:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>you should only collect the personal information required under the Direction or Order</p></li>
<li><p>you should notify individuals before you collect personal information</p></li>
<li><p>you should securely store this information once you have collected it.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>One point specifically notes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Do not place the names and phone numbers or other details in a book or on a notepad or computer screen where customers may see it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Thus, many establishments are clearly not sticking to official guidance. So could you refuse to give your details in such cases? </p>
<p>Venues are <a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/guidance-and-advice/guidance-for-businesses-collecting-personal-information-for-contact-tracing/">required by law</a> to collect the necessary details as per their state or territory’s Direction or Order. Venues can deny entry to people who refuse.</p>
<h2>What would a comprehensive solution look like?</h2>
<p>For contact tracing to work effectively, it should be implemented systematically, not in a piecemeal way. This means there should be a system that securely collects, compiles, and analyses people’s data in real time, without impinging on their privacy. </p>
<p>It’s perhaps too much to ask hospitality businesses to take the lead on this. Ideally, government agencies should have done it already. </p>
<p>The COVIDSafe app could have provided this service, but with it being optional — and contact tracing by businesses being mandatory — it’s not a viable option. That’s not to mention the issues with the running of the app, including Bluetooth requirements, battery life drainage, and history of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/technology/the-covidsafe-app-is-not-fit-for-purpose-on-iphones-20200506-p54qjk.html">problems</a> with iPhones. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-safe-is-covidsafe-what-you-should-know-about-the-apps-issues-and-bluetooth-related-risks-137894">How safe is COVIDSafe? What you should know about the app's issues, and Bluetooth-related risks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Nonetheless, there are some free technologies that can offer better alternatives to the manual collection of customers’ details. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.google.com.au/forms/about/">Google Forms</a></li>
<li><a href="https://forms.office.com/">Microsoft Forms</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cognitoforms.com/">Cognito Forms</a> and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/australia/">Survey Monkey</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>All these tools have a similar set up process, and provide similar services. Let’s take a look at one of the most popular ones, Google Forms. </p>
<h2>Using Google Forms</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com.au/forms/about/">Google Forms</a> is a tool that comes free with a Google account. The “contact information template” is a good starting point for businesses wanting to make a secure log of visitor details. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343419/original/file-20200623-188926-g48091.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343419/original/file-20200623-188926-g48091.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343419/original/file-20200623-188926-g48091.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343419/original/file-20200623-188926-g48091.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343419/original/file-20200623-188926-g48091.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343419/original/file-20200623-188926-g48091.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343419/original/file-20200623-188926-g48091.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Google Forms, you can create a workable contact tracing form within minutes.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once you create a form to collect customers’ information, you just have to share a URL, and customers can fill the form on their own device.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343420/original/file-20200623-188936-1r40o39.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343420/original/file-20200623-188936-1r40o39.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343420/original/file-20200623-188936-1r40o39.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343420/original/file-20200623-188936-1r40o39.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343420/original/file-20200623-188936-1r40o39.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343420/original/file-20200623-188936-1r40o39.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343420/original/file-20200623-188936-1r40o39.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You can generate a shareable URL for your Google form.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Data gathered via Google Forms is stored securely on the Google Drive account and can only be accessed through the same login that was used to create the form. The transmission of data from the customer’s device to Google Drive (where the data is then stored) is <a href="https://policies.google.com/privacy?hl=en-GB&gl=au#infosecurity">also secure</a>.</p>
<h2>Or use a QR code</h2>
<p>If you want to make the whole process even easier, and not use a clunky URL, then using a QR code (linked to the URL of your Google form) is a great option. For this, you can use <a href="http://goqr.me/">any</a> <a href="https://www.qr-code-generator.com">free</a> external QR code generator. These will generate a QR code which, when scanned by a smartphone, will direct the user to your URL. </p>
<p>This code can also be printed and hung on a wall, or stuck to tables where it’s easy to access without any human-to-human contact. A comprehensive guide to creating and accessing Google Forms <a href="https://zapier.com/learn/google-sheets/how-to-use-google-forms/">can be found here</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343422/original/file-20200623-188911-60rf3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343422/original/file-20200623-188911-60rf3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343422/original/file-20200623-188911-60rf3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343422/original/file-20200623-188911-60rf3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343422/original/file-20200623-188911-60rf3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343422/original/file-20200623-188911-60rf3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343422/original/file-20200623-188911-60rf3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">QR code created using the website https://www.qr-code-generator.com/</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That said, although the process of setting up and using such tools is very simple, there may still be people who are too mistrusting of the way their data is used, and may refuse to hand it over. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: this article was amended to specify businesses within the small business exemption are not bound by the Australian Privacy Principles under the Privacy Act 1988, even though they may be following a specific Direction or Order for their state or territory.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mahmoud Elkhodr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Official government guidelines say businesses should not collect customer details in a book or notepad where other customers can see them. But many establishments haven’t heeded the advice.Mahmoud Elkhodr, Lecturer in Information and Communication Technologies, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1408432020-06-16T07:27:52Z2020-06-16T07:27:52Z2 new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand, but elimination of community transmission still stands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342059/original/file-20200616-23213-1n76uz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=119%2C133%2C4562%2C2983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Asiandelight/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand is one of a handful of countries where community transmission of COVID-19 has been <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31097-7/fulltext">eliminated</a>. </p>
<p>But with <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/419134/two-new-covid-19-cases-in-nz-visited-dying-parent-bloomfield">two new cases announced</a> on June 16, we have learned that elimination is not the end – rather, it’s the start of the next phase. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339638/original/file-20200603-130912-1uddp1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339638/original/file-20200603-130912-1uddp1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339638/original/file-20200603-130912-1uddp1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339638/original/file-20200603-130912-1uddp1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339638/original/file-20200603-130912-1uddp1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339638/original/file-20200603-130912-1uddp1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339638/original/file-20200603-130912-1uddp1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Probability of elimination of COVID-19 community transmission.</span>
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<p>After 23 consecutive days with no new cases, the June 16 announcement that two people returning from overseas have tested positive does not mean New Zealand’s elimination strategy has failed. Just two weeks ago, we <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-a-95-chance-of-eliminating-coronavirus-but-we-predict-new-cases-will-emerge-139973">estimated</a> we were likely to see one or two cases a week at New Zealand’s border.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-a-95-chance-of-eliminating-coronavirus-but-we-predict-new-cases-will-emerge-139973">New Zealand hits a 95% chance of eliminating coronavirus – but we predict new cases will emerge</a>
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<p>The two travellers in question came from the UK, where the disease is still <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/coronavirus-uk-map-the-latest-deaths-and-confirmed-covid-19-cases">very active</a>. </p>
<p>The two women arrived in New Zealand on June 7, via Doha and Brisbane, and stayed in a managed isolation hotel in Auckland. But they were granted an exemption on compassionate grounds on June 12 to travel to Wellington to visit their dying parent. </p>
<p>Such compassionate exemptions from managed isolation have now been <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/compassionate-exemptions-temporarily-suspended">temporarily suspended</a>.</p>
<p>This development shows how important our border controls are. Currently, all new arrivals must remain in quarantine for at least 14 days, unless they receive an exemption. It’s unlikely someone is still infectious after 14 days without showing symptoms, so this should minimise the chances of spread from overseas arrivals. </p>
<p>But as these cases show, this doesn’t mean the risk is zero. Whether from an exemption on compassionate grounds as in this case, people working at the border, or from people getting infected shortly before leaving quarantine, it is inevitable that new cases will make it across the border. </p>
<p>As we explained in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-a-95-chance-of-eliminating-coronavirus-but-we-predict-new-cases-will-emerge-139973">previous article</a>, to stop the virus coming back, we need more than just good border controls. New Zealanders will need to keep avoiding the <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/japan-ends-its-covid-19-state-emergency">three Cs</a> of possible infection – closed spaces, crowded places and close contact – as best they can. And it’s crucial we keep meticulously tracking where we’ve been and who we’ve been in contact with.</p>
<p>It also shows the importance of getting tested. One of the travellers reported mild symptoms, but didn’t associate these with COVID-19. Anybody with symptoms should get tested and stay home until the results come through, especially if they have had contact with someone who has been overseas or work in a high-contact job. </p>
<p>Now that New Zealand is at alert level 1 and 40,000 people can <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/419027/first-weekend-at-level-1-draws-crowds-to-rugby-and-emergency-rooms">go to the rugby</a>, it’s more than important than ever that we don’t let our guard down.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Hendy receives funding from Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems, and is on the Council of the New Zealand Association of Scientists.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex James is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Audrey Lustig is affiliated with Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research and receives funding from Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Steyn is affiliated with Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachelle Binny is affiliated with Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research and receives funding from Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p>Two new cases of COVID-19 have been announced in New Zealand, after 23 consecutive days with no new cases. But that doesn’t mean that the country’s elimination efforts have failed.Shaun Hendy, Professor of Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauAlex James, Associate professor, University of CanterburyAudrey Lustig, Research scientist, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare ResearchMichael Plank, Professor in Mathematics, University of CanterburyNicholas Steyn, Research assistant, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauRachelle Binny, Research scientist, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1404792020-06-12T11:31:57Z2020-06-12T11:31:57ZLockdown crime trends: why antisocial behaviour is up<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341192/original/file-20200611-80778-18m5e8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=64%2C7%2C868%2C622&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-7th-march-2020-rear-1678193143">Shutterstock/JohnGomez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Understanding what has happened to crime during lockdown is challenging. We are in uncharted territory and it’s proving very hard to draw definitive conclusions from the latest police recorded crime data. But a few trends, like a spike in antisocial behaviour and an increase in drug offences, are beginning to emerge.</p>
<p>Changes in people’s <a href="https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-05-29_GB_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf">movements and activities</a> can impact on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-crime-changes-during-a-lockdown-134948">opportunities</a> available to potential offenders and, in turn, the volume and types of crime being committed. As a case study, we can look at <a href="https://data.police.uk/data/">Greater London</a> and consider crimes recorded by the Metropolitan Police Service before and after the nationwide lockdown.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-crime-changes-during-a-lockdown-134948">Coronavirus: how crime changes during a lockdown</a>
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<p>Using this data, I have visualised how the Met recorded antisocial behaviour and different crime types on a month-by-month basis. Importantly, there is enough open data to compare trends across years. This is useful for studying crime because many offence types are seasonal. </p>
<p>For instance, bicycle theft tends to increase in spring (around when the lockdown began) so looking at 2020 in isolation would be uninformative, or even misleading. This mimics the approach taken when <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441">visually tracking</a> coronvirus fatalities due to the seasonality of death rates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341178/original/file-20200611-80766-4gnm1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341178/original/file-20200611-80766-4gnm1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341178/original/file-20200611-80766-4gnm1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341178/original/file-20200611-80766-4gnm1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341178/original/file-20200611-80766-4gnm1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341178/original/file-20200611-80766-4gnm1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341178/original/file-20200611-80766-4gnm1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">End of month counts by offence type as recorded by the Metropolitan Police Service.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Samuel Langton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Crimes such as burglary, shoplifting, robbery and theft all experienced remarkably sudden declines during April in comparison to previous years. Although we cannot differentiate individual days and weeks, some of these declines were already evident in March. </p>
<p>This aligns with what many will have expected. With most people spending so much time at home, shopping limited to essentials, and movement restricted to necessary travel and exercise, the opportunities available to commit such offences were severely curtailed.</p>
<h2>Antisocial behaviour</h2>
<p>One of the starkest trends observed is antisocial behaviour. Even by the end of March, recorded incidences were unusually high. But between March and April, the number of cases skyrocketed by over 270%. An increase at this time of year is expected, but a rise of this magnitude is unprecedented.</p>
<p>It is plausible that the lockdown resulted in a genuine shift in “traditional” antisocial behaviour, such as nuisance noise from neighbours. But the National Police Chiefs’ Council has said that this increase can largely be attributed to people <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52298016">breaching lockdown guidelines</a>. </p>
<p>The picture is not so clear for criminal offences. There has not yet been any discernible impact on public order or the possession of weapons. Violence and sexual offences appear to have declined more steeply than usual. </p>
<p>However, using these charts in isolation, it is difficult to definitively attribute these changes to the lockdown. Even during less remarkable times, police recorded crime patterns can be subject to <a href="https://the-sra.org.uk/SRA/Blog/whyyoucantidentifychangesincrimebycomparingthismonthtolastmonth.aspx">short-term blips</a>. Indeed, visualising the long-term trend for violence and sexual offences demonstrates that similarly volatile changes have occurred before.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341180/original/file-20200611-80770-adswf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341180/original/file-20200611-80770-adswf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341180/original/file-20200611-80770-adswf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341180/original/file-20200611-80770-adswf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341180/original/file-20200611-80770-adswf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341180/original/file-20200611-80770-adswf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341180/original/file-20200611-80770-adswf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Long-term trend of violent and sexual offences as recorded by the Metropolitan Police Service.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Samuel Langton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drug offences appear to have gone up in comparison to previous years. Addiction experts have speculated that the lockdown could result in an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/03/coronavirus-crisis-could-increase-users-drug-habits-report">increase in drug usage</a> among recreational users. At the same time, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-52344249">some police forces</a> have suggested that the demand for drugs has remained the same, but that drug dealers now stick out on otherwise empty streets, increasing the number of arrests. </p>
<p>In other words, these changes may not necessarily reflect actual changes in criminal behaviour. The long-term picture, visualised below, demonstrates that April’s increase might also be part of a wider upward trend in Greater London. The rise in recent years might be partly attributable to action taken over <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52892907">county lines</a> drug networks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341182/original/file-20200611-80746-j0s7fz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341182/original/file-20200611-80746-j0s7fz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341182/original/file-20200611-80746-j0s7fz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341182/original/file-20200611-80746-j0s7fz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=180&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341182/original/file-20200611-80746-j0s7fz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341182/original/file-20200611-80746-j0s7fz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341182/original/file-20200611-80746-j0s7fz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=226&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Long-term trend of drug offences as recorded by the Metropolitan Police Service.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Samuel Langton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Exercising caution</h2>
<p>Some have labelled the nationwide lockdown as an ideal natural experiment to study how a shift in the opportunities available to offenders might impact on crime. But of course, it is <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/no-the-coronavirus-crisis-isnt-a-cool-natural-experiment">not that simple</a>.</p>
<p>Numerous parameters have changed. Recording practices for lockdown breaches have had to be adapted overnight. The willingness and ability of people to report crimes to the police, particularly for <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-murders-media-narrative-about-domestic-abuse-during-lockdown-is-wrong-and-harmful-137011">domestic offences</a>, will have changed in ways that cannot yet be quantified. Calls to a national domestic abuse helpline have <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52433520">increased</a>, but open police records do not flag which violent and sexual offences, for instance, were domestic. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lockdown-crimes-in-the-home-are-on-the-up-new-measures-are-needed-to-alert-the-authorities-139607">Lockdown: crimes in the home are on the up – new measures are needed to alert the authorities</a>
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<p>Policing priorities have also had to be adjusted in response to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52618005">vague</a> government guidelines and there has been considerable <a href="https://www.polfed.org/gmp/news/2019/gmp-federation-chairman-stu-berry-reacts-to-the-latest-government-announcements-on-covid-19/">strain</a> on officers as a result.</p>
<p>One way of overcoming shortcomings in police data is by using victimisation surveys such as the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforhouseholdsandindividuals/householdandindividualsurveys/crimesurveyforenglandandwales">Crime Survey for England and Wales</a> that can capture crimes not reported or identified by the police. This largely resolves issues around under-reporting and includes additional crime types such as cybercrime which <a href="http://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/digital-futures/2020/03/profiting-from-pandemics-covid-19-changing-routines-and-cyber-crimes/">might have increased</a> during the lockdown. However, the survey data is not month-by-month and will not be released for some time. </p>
<p>For now, open data in the UK represents a unique opportunity to track police recorded crime – as long as it is used with a degree of caution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140479/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Langton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Antisocial behaviour has skyrocketed but that could be due to people breaching lockdown rules.Samuel Langton, Research associate in Sociology, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1385622020-05-29T00:30:06Z2020-05-29T00:30:06ZJourney to the land of lockdown dreams<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335841/original/file-20200518-83384-a0n5eh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C1597%2C926&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Still from the film _Dreams_ by Japanese director Akira Kurosawa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Warner Bros.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the Covid-19 crisis has unfolded, <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/21240/enforced-covid-19-lockdowns-by-people-affected-per-country/">billions of people in the world</a> have learned just what the word “lockdown” means. As the days stretched into weeks and even months, sleep was one of the rare escapes from confinement – but maybe not even then. Ask around and you will probably find that others in your circle of friends and family feel the same way: while locked down, our dreams can seem more intense, and even more troubling. But why should this be? </p>
<p>Throughout our lives, sleep provides the brain with crucial time needed to rebuild, repair, and prepare for the next day. Hippocrates himself thought that a good night’s sleep was key to good health, along with a healthy diet, exercise and a fulfilling sex life. Our current knowledge substantiates this: sleep plays a role in many major physiological processes, including eliminating waste, boosting immunity, consolidating memory and even maintaining positive mood. A good night’s sleep really does wonders.</p>
<p>Yet our obligations – our pastimes, even – are often detrimental to our sleep. Those who must get up early each day to drive an hour to work frequently miss out on some sleep. Massive amounts of screen time lead to chronic sleep restriction, with longer-term consequences, including raising rates of obesity, diabetes risk and high blood pressure. Even a small daily sleep deficit affects our concentration and attention, and this deficit is only partially offset by sleeping more over the weekend.</p>
<h2>Longer nights, deeper sleep</h2>
<p>The residents of France emerged from the country’s lockdown on May 11, many having spent 55 straight days inside. They emerged to find a city streets strangely quiet, as if in a dream. Under lockdown, many had been able to savour a pleasure usually reserved for weekends or retirement: an extra hour of sleep. Those able to work from home no longer have a daily commute, and could rest a little longer. Nights in the city were also quieter, with fewer cars and motorbikes to disturb the silence – in the morning, you can even hear birdsong in the heart of Paris. And the less interrupted our sleep is, the better we remember of our dreams.</p>
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<p>The extra hour of morning sleep we have during lockdown is chiefly rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, where the bulk of dreaming takes place. The longest episodes of REM sleep occur at the end of the night, and can last between 30 and 60 minutes. This means people living under lockdown dream more, as they might when on holiday, and their dreams are longer, <a href="https://presse.inserm.fr/en/why-does-the-brain-remember-dreams/11156/">as was shown recently by Perrine Ruby</a>, a research fellow at the Lyon Neuroscience Research Centre.</p>
<p>But is there anything unusual about these dreams?</p>
<h2>The stuff our dreams are made of</h2>
<p>Outside of lockdown, what are our REM-state dreams like? Large surveys of dreams show that the content of our night-time adventures is fairly ordinary, visual and auditory. Dreams are filled with emotions, but they are more often negative (fear, anger, sadness) than positive. Although we frequently have human interactions, they’re only rarely of a sexual nature. The content of our dreams is largely sourced from our daily lives: we see our loved ones and colleagues, move through familiar settings, go about our work and rehash our day-to-day worries.</p>
<p>Ordinary events from the previous day or two feature heavily, but in a troubled and somewhat dramatized form. The majority of our dreams follow this continuity between the dream and the real world, although we sometimes dream of worlds we’ve never seen and actions we’ve never taken. Who hasn’t experienced the thrill of flying in dreams? These eccentricities are rare, yet they make a lasting impression and lend the word “dream” its extraordinary connotation.</p>
<p>According to Freud, dreams in lockdown should feature the things we lack. Deprived our of freedom of movement and our loved ones, we might dream of open spaces, social events or the kinds of food we can no longer eat. Research has shown that this may not be the case, however. For example, in a 1970s study, California researcher Bill Dement restricted subjects’ water intake for 48 hours to see if they would start <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/13563767">dreaming of fountains</a>. They did not.</p>
<p>So, what do we dream of in lockdown?</p>
<h2>What we dream of in lockdown</h2>
<p>It’s important to note up front that we are in the realms of anecdote and clinical experience rather than hard science. For that, we will have to wait for the results of properly regulated studies currently underway.</p>
<p>As can be expected, the content of dreams in lockdown varies. Recent daily life and those close to us have always been an intrinsic part of our dreams, and while dreams in lockdown sometimes feature idyllic countryside escapes, the threat of the virus has invaded our days (and, for doctors, our work in the hospital) and so has also invaded our dreamscapes.</p>
<p>Over the course of the lockdown, the masked faces and blue scrubs of hospital staff have started to appear in our patients’ dreams. Many people – and by no means just those experiencing the most stress – wake up suddenly at night feeling as if they’re choking, have a fever, or have barely escaped some catastrophe. Bad dreams are common in stressful situations, and lend credibility to a recent theory that one of the purposes of dreams is to virtually simulate threats so as to be able to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18325788">better face them during the day</a>.</p>
<p>Almost all medical students at the Sorbonne University dream of failing their competitive exams the day before. In their dreams, they show up late, are suddenly struck with appendicitis, can’t find their way to the exam room, can’t understand the questions, or don’t know the answers. Yet we have demonstrated that the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108280">more they fail in dreams, the better they perform on the exam</a>. It is if, after such a nightmare, students were less stressed under real conditions, or were able to anticipate, like chess players, the twists fate might have in store.</p>
<p>Dreams of difficulties and failure abound in all professions: before an important stage debut, actors dream of forgetting their lines; the day before the Olympics, athletes dream of losing their running shoes; taxi drivers find themselves on unknown streets, or far from destinations.</p>
<p>And when a virus threatens humanity, we dream of the virus. In this way, too, we are fighting it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isabelle Arnulf received funding from Plan National Maladies Rares, Fondation Kleine-Levin syndrome, Académie des Sciences, IHU@ICM, Société Française de Médecine et de Recherche sur le Sommeil, FUI Banque Publique France, and UCB Pharma.</span></em></p>Dreams that are more vivid, more frequent and more striking… Lockdown seems to trouble our nights as well as our days, and there’s reason to believe that’s not just a figment of our imagination.Isabelle Arnulf, Neurologue, professeur de médecine, Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière - U1127, InsermLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1387582020-05-28T11:09:00Z2020-05-28T11:09:00ZMobile data shows which European countries took lockdown seriously<p>A substantial part of humanity is slowly emerging from weeks of lockdown. What we have experienced is truly rare: a real global threat, menacing to all wherever we lived. But how did humanity respond to this pandemic? Did people consistently stay at home as most governments asked them to? And if they didn’t, where did they go?</p>
<p>We can answer these questions thanks to Google. It has <a href="https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/">released data on people’s movements</a> gathered from millions of mobile devices that use its software (Android, Google Maps and so on). Never before has this level of detail been available. For infamous pandemics in history even basic facts are disputed (for example the number of deaths from the Black Death). The Google dataset seems to be of such quality that several scientific questions can finally be resolved. </p>
<p>Across Europe, the picture the data paints is varied. Some of the difference can be attributed to the lockdown strategies of different countries. But some, seemingly, cannot. This may be useful when considering future lockdowns.</p>
<h2>How the data reveals behaviour</h2>
<p>Google first divided where people spent their time into six location categories: homes; workplaces; parks; public transport stations; grocery shops and pharmacies; and retail and recreational locations. </p>
<p>It then released aggregated data on time spent at each of the six location types for the past several months, compared to a baseline: the five-week period between January 3 and February 6 2020. To the extent that no special events happened during this time, the change from the baseline after this reflects people’s collective response to the pandemic and the lockdowns.</p>
<p>Using the Google data, we then created the following graphs, comparing the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Greece between mid-February and early May. To get a smoother image, we calculated a seven-day moving average. Countries are also ranked and coloured in the graph legends according to their average reaction over the whole period (meaning a country’s colour can differ between graphs).</p>
<h2>What were the differences between countries?</h2>
<p>Let’s start with people staying at home. </p>
<p>For a good part of April, all these countries except for Sweden were officially in some form of lockdown, with <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-compared/">measures</a> in place banning non-essential movement. However, behaviour varied substantially.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337698/original/file-20200526-106853-1t0ygbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337698/original/file-20200526-106853-1t0ygbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337698/original/file-20200526-106853-1t0ygbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337698/original/file-20200526-106853-1t0ygbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337698/original/file-20200526-106853-1t0ygbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337698/original/file-20200526-106853-1t0ygbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337698/original/file-20200526-106853-1t0ygbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>In Spain, Italy and France, time spent at home rose early in the pandemic by 30-35%. Even the most outdoorsy people must have stayed home for at least 10-12 hours before the lockdown, so this means at least three-to-five extra hours were spent at home per person – for most even more. This reflects these countries’ strict lockdowns: they banned all events, limited outdoor exercise, and in France’s case, required documentation to go outside. </p>
<p>Germany and Denmark were more relaxed; the rise in staying home was about 15%, reflecting their partial lockdowns. Sweden’s increase was even lower at 8-10%. </p>
<p>The UK was somewhere in between, reacting late but then strongly, with a rise of about 20-25%. The delay reflects its lockdown beginning later – on March 23 – though it is interesting that some people were already staying home before its lockdown began. </p>
<p>Greece is an interesting case, as it reacted relatively early and strongly, but started relaxing in late March, with a strong effect by mid-April, long before its non-essential movement measures were lifted on May 3. This might indicate that compliance is a matter of perceived risk. Greece kept its COVID-19 cases and deaths <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/">remarkably low</a>, which may have caused people to relax. </p>
<p>The mix of how people spent their outdoor time also differed. For example, the next graph presents the park visit data. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336800/original/file-20200521-102682-1s26w66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336800/original/file-20200521-102682-1s26w66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336800/original/file-20200521-102682-1s26w66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336800/original/file-20200521-102682-1s26w66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336800/original/file-20200521-102682-1s26w66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336800/original/file-20200521-102682-1s26w66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336800/original/file-20200521-102682-1s26w66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>For most of April, Sweden, Denmark and Germany saw a rise in the time people spent in parks (including national and local parks, public gardens and beaches). At the same time, Italy and Spain saw 80% drops. Greece and the UK are again somewhere in the middle, seeing a drop initially but coming back to the benchmark in early May. In Greece’s case we actually see a rise of almost 50% lately compared to the benchmark – again suggesting that fatigue may have set in, in combination with good weather and a lack of perceived risk.</p>
<p>Germany’s park visit data is further evidence that lockdown measures do not fully determine behaviour, and that people have their own motives. Its graph line is somewhat similar to Denmark’s and Sweden’s, countries with less strict official policies; the country with the most similar policy on going outdoors was the UK, whose line shows a decrease instead of an increase.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336802/original/file-20200521-102671-wdo7ge.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336802/original/file-20200521-102671-wdo7ge.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336802/original/file-20200521-102671-wdo7ge.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336802/original/file-20200521-102671-wdo7ge.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336802/original/file-20200521-102671-wdo7ge.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336802/original/file-20200521-102671-wdo7ge.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336802/original/file-20200521-102671-wdo7ge.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Lastly, let us look at time spent at workplaces. Again, in some countries people were going to work almost as much as before, while in others there were drops of 70-80%. Spain and Italy banned all non-essential work – a measure that went beyond the restrictions of all other countries – so it is not a surprise to see these at the bottom of the graph. We can see, though, the effect of Spain allowing some sectors to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-spain-lifts-some-lockdown-measures-fewer-deaths-in-italy.html">open up again on April 14</a>.</p>
<h2>What should we do with this data?</h2>
<p>Behavioural fatigue, a much-maligned term during the UK government’s handling of the crisis, is now an issue that can be discussed properly. While lockdown measures were still in place, people around Europe started leaving their homes more. It’s clear that adherence to lockdown decreased over time.</p>
<p>Governments now need to investigate whether this affected the spread of disease. Is staying at home a solution? And if people do not stay at home, does it matter where they go? Answering these questions might allow governments to design an optimal lockdown policy mix that, say, allows people to go to parks, but not mingle in shops and railway stations.</p>
<p>As the threat of the virus is not eliminated, and second waves are expected around the world, gaining these answers will be very important.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sotiris Georganas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By tracing the location of millions of devices, Google has mapped the pandemic response at a scale never seen before.Sotiris Georganas, Reader in Behavioural Economics, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1393402020-05-25T17:22:09Z2020-05-25T17:22:09ZDominic Cummings: powerful people are the most likely to break the rules – even if they make them<p>A very large number of people in the UK have been complying with coronavirus lockdown rules and staying at home, according to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3598221">recent study</a>. That, in part, explains the outrage that has followed the revelation that Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s chief adviser, was not among them.</p>
<p>Cummings has admitted travelling across the country in April to stay at a property owned by his parents, during which time he experienced symptoms of COVID-19.</p>
<p>But the fact that a person in a position of such power appears to have ignored his own rules is not a coincidence or even an exception. In fact, there is a large body of research that shows that it is people in positions of power that are most likely to take excessive risks. Their very nature seems to be to break rules, act hypocritically, overlook questions of justice and ignore the perspective of others. </p>
<p>Powerful people are more likely to under-estimate risks and engage in reckless behaviour. One series of studies, for example, found that people who were made to feel powerful were much more likely to downplay the risks of a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ejsp.324?casa_token=8GbueW5wN7oAAAAA:jhlGn1gKh0CX6E8AjrbqVDsN7iJOSjmspGg19EIyt850b7ElTIt7KkCZI9gsbKZzqUYqladcc9xD5A">particular course of action</a>. Powerful people were also more likely to engage in risky behaviour such as having unprotected sex. Another study in the US financial industry found that particularly powerful CEOs were more likely to have engaged with the risky <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-8683.2011.00903.x?casa_token=e1I99abCFFwAAAAA%3AXlYGNxDekRzbmVXo3OWuWiRth_XK-wI0zV98li1xlbIQJtFphksW7_KDYfH2eK1yC-Mwc60fdKDRFw">sub-prime lending market</a>.</p>
<p>People who are put in a position of power are more likely to bend or break the rules and <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/312367/the-power-paradox-by-dacher-keltner/">commit unethical actions</a>. For instance, one study found that people with more expensive cars were more likely violate rules of the road, such as cutting off other cars at an intersection or cutting off pedestrians at a crossing. And when people were made to feel powerful in a lab setting they were more likely to dip into a jar of candy that was <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/109/11/4086.full.pdf">meant for children</a>.</p>
<h2>It’s just not fair</h2>
<p>As well as being more likely to break the rules, people who are put in powerful positions are more likely to act in a hypocritical way by strongly enforcing a set of rules they don’t comply with themselves. In one study, a group of Dutch students were given a task that <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0956797610368810?casa_token=tDkOl6R1pXYAAAAA:8uE3DD0ZAk3ZkJ2Xt-wUBTlXHJyhUo1U8H_bOBMo0rj5mOP10UHalxDYitSuvM4eeRvO4YTLCss">made them feel more or less powerful</a>. After that task, they were either asked to play a game (which was easy to cheat on) or rank whether it was right for someone to cheat on their travel expenses. They found that students who were made to feel powerful were both more likely to cheat in the game and give a harsh punishment to the person fiddling their expenses. The researchers also found that people who were made to feel they had low levels of power tended to judge their own cheating much more harshly than they judged other people cheating. </p>
<p>Being put in a position of power also tends to make people less concerned about questions of fairness and justice. One study found that people who were made to feel powerful were <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fa0026651">less likely to treat other people in a just way</a>. In another study, researchers found that the higher up an organisation a person was, the less concerned they were about <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749597802000341?casa_token=Y-ISf_A5DjsAAAAA:7lq7NYKRud7b9la64ZJGSmH0UxQAHTdCXVdkXwFM7Iew6MEaMcnMcnssQQeHigrliEd5K_AY">just procedures in that organisation</a>. This suggests justice is something which occupies the minds of the weak and slips the minds of the powerful. </p>
<p>Putting someone in a position of power also means they are less likely to be able to see the perspective of others. In a series of experiments, people who were made to feel powerful were <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01824.x?casa_token=upe9iyvOcxsAAAAA%3AmHqezSP9bq4xHmRfk5vVbJXddqHU0I_45CgEzJtGk69MdJXAEJZZU3T6lXp9AtEkr0fOzeLIUU4">more fixed in seeing the world from their own perspective</a>. When asked to draw on an E on their forehead, powerful people drew it so it was legible to them but not another person. The researchers interpreted this an indicator that the powerful literally see the world from their own perspective. They also found powerful people assumed others had the information they had (even when they didn’t), and they were less good at reading the emotion of others. </p>
<h2>Bring the powerful into line</h2>
<p>Having power can make you more likely to misbehave, but there are things which can be done to curb its abuse. Dachner Keltner who has been studying the negative impact of power for decades <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/10/dont-let-power-corrupt-you?utm_campaign=harvardbiz&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social">has some suggestions</a>. These include spending time working on self awareness and understanding how others see the world. This can break through their tendency to see the world in a self serving way. They can also try to nurture a sense of empathy by investing time in experiencing the lives and concerns of the less powerful.</p>
<p>Encouraging the powerful to become more empathetic and mindful is usually not enough. When scandals hit, people usually search for scapegoats. A public apology, a resignation, an inquiry and some new rules usually makes the public feel like something has been done. But in my own <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/amr.2014.0208">research on the topic</a>, we found that hasty actions often detract attention and leave the system of power in place which caused the problems in the first place. Often the only way to remember the lessons of irresponsible behaviour is to change underlying institutions in a way which creates limitations on the powerful and reminds them that they too are bound by the rules.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andre Spicer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Do people at the top think there is one rule for them and one rule for others? Bluntly, yes, they do.Andre Spicer, Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Cass Business School, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1380832020-05-07T15:45:06Z2020-05-07T15:45:06ZWhy Boris Johnson’s Sunday statement is a conveniently timed press exercise<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333375/original/file-20200507-49573-6fm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C3%2C1264%2C714&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Boris Johnson has signalled that some lockdown measures will be eased on Monday,</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">BBC</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Boris Johnson chose a “day of rest” – Sunday May 10 2020 – to broadcast to UK citizens about the government’s plans for the next stage in its COVID-19 measures. The broadcast comes days after announcements by <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-sets-out-plan-to-reopen-germany-from-coronavirus-lockdown/">Angela Merkel in Germany</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200501-life-won-t-return-to-normal-after-lockdown-ends-macron-warns-in-may-day-address">Emmanuel Macron in France</a> of their plans to rollback lockdown. </p>
<p>Why choose Sunday? Johnson attempted to explain why in the most recent <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2020-05-06/debates/4D4A836F-EBB7-4255-B84C-1537BDE1DCC4/Engagements">Prime Minister’s Questions</a> on Wednesday May 6, when he said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The reason is very simple. We have to be sure that the data is going to support our ability to do this (coming out of lockdown), but that data is coming in continuously over the next few days. </p>
<p>We will want, if we possibly can, to get going with some of these measures on Monday, and I think it will be a good thing if people have an idea of what is coming the following day. </p>
<p>That is why I think Sunday – the weekend – is the best time to do it, but of course the House will be fully informed and will have the full opportunity to debate and interrogate me or the Government on that matter. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This doesn’t answer the question fully. If a bit more time were needed, why not choose Monday for example? If organisations are literally meant to start on Monday, isn’t Sunday a bit too close?</p>
<h2>Why Sunday?</h2>
<p>For the government a Sunday announcement has several advantages, many of them to do with the news agenda. As a general rule, there is less news on a Sunday and so fewer events to fight with for attention. Making an announcement directly to the public also removes some of the immediate opportunities for opposition politicians to negatively comment on any changes.</p>
<p>But the televised address is just part of the communications package. It is normal for governments, and for that matter oppositions, to selectively brief the press with aspects of a statement or a launch early to get Sunday newspaper front pages. And, as first editions prepared on Saturday evening, that means the Johnson speech can be just one part of a larger communications exercise with messaging throughout the 24-hour news cycle and critics struggling to catch up.</p>
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<p>While televised government press conferences and direct addresses by the prime minister are relatively rare in this country (outside the controlled mechanisms of election broadcasts) they are more common elsewhere. </p>
<p>In the US, for example, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s <a href="http://docs.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/firesi90.html">“fireside chats”</a> morphed into a weekly radio address, a tradition continued by many presidents.
George Bush, for example, <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/radio/">introduced a podcast</a>, while Barack Obama used a <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/weekly-address">weekly video address</a> during his presidential transition period. Donald Trump continued the weekly address via video for the first nine months of his administration, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/us/politics/kayleigh-mcenany-white-house-briefing.html">then put it on hiatus</a>.</p>
<p>Here though, the concept of the UK prime minister speaking directly to the nation is less usual and so carries more weight. </p>
<h2>Crisis comms</h2>
<p>Generally prime ministerial addresses come at times of crisis or highly significant news. They are there to tell us we are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ww2peopleswar/stories/21/a4894121.shtml">“at war with Germany”</a> or that the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34kvEQfpwHo">war with Iraq was starting</a>. Theresa May’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2019/3/21/18275752/brexit-theresa-may-parliament-speech-delay">televised address</a> in 2019, ahead of requesting a Brexit extension, was widely seen as misguided – but it is clear she felt she needed to appeal to an audience outside the Commons.</p>
<p>The government’s need to communicate – and the volume of questions coming from all sides – has led to the daily televised press conference, which is an odd mix of direct address, with speakers talking to camera using visual aids, and interactions with journalists. </p>
<p>This in turn has sparked a subset of comments, including those from former Blair communications chief <a href="https://twitter.com/campbellclaret">Alastair Campbell</a> and TV presenter and former tabloid editor <a href="https://twitter.com/piersmorgan">Piers Morgan</a>, on style, content and delivery. This may lead in turn to pressure to make the “peacetime” Downing Street briefings more visible. </p>
<p>At the moment these are rather behind closed doors and one of them – in pre-COVID times – was even referred to by journalists as the “huddle”. Of course journalists in the lobby (effectively a self-policing group who get special access) have an interest in opportunities beyond the camera’s gaze.</p>
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<p>Johnson has a difficult tightrope to walk. His natural presenting style is ebullient and often slips into humour. But these are dark times which call for a serious approach which informs rather than confuses.</p>
<p>His announcements won’t be news for many groups. We already know that draft plans have been <a href="https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/government-consults-on-draft-return-to-work-guidelines/">circulating business and trade union organisations</a>. And that there have been conversations about what might be possible. </p>
<p>Many organisations will already have been given advance information. So Johnson’s main task is to convince the rest of us and to answer some of those hanging questions about school re-openings, shops, workplaces and travel.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138083/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats</span></em></p>For the government a Sunday announcement has several advantages, many of them to do with the news agenda.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1362232020-05-06T12:20:25Z2020-05-06T12:20:25ZExit from coronavirus lockdowns – lessons from 6 countries<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332541/original/file-20200504-83764-a66qa1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4486%2C2997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People, some wearing masks, enjoy a walk in a park in Rome as Italy, the first nation to impose a nationwide lockdown against the coronavirus, begins to reopen – slowly.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-walk-at-the-pineto-park-during-the-first-day-after-news-photo/1222825264">Franco Origlia/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It has been less than two months since the world scrambled to go into the “<a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/">Great Lockdown</a>” to slow the spread of COVID-19. Now, many countries are considering their exit strategies. Some have already eased up.</p>
<p>The push is largely economic. There is a lot <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/what-we-dont-know-about-covid-19">scientists don’t yet understand</a> about the novel coronavirus, and there is no known cure or vaccine. Many countries are <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/emerging-lockdown-46-days-house-70476335">still experiencing a rise</a> in infections. But the lockdowns have played havoc with people’s livelihoods. Entire economies are in meltdown: The International Monetary Fund <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/">predicts the worst economic downturn</a> since the Great Depression.</p>
<p>Just as each nation chose a <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker">different route into lockdown</a>, each is likely to choose its own exit path. I have launched a research initiative, “Imagining a Digital Economy for All 2030,” with a focus on the post-pandemic global economy. We have been <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/04/which-countries-were-and-werent-ready-for-remote-work">studying the characteristics of 40 countries</a> that help explain how governments and citizens have acted to contain the COVID-19 outbreak and their preparedness to take an economy online. Our analysis offers ways to gauge which countries are best prepared for a safe exit.</p>
<p>It seems clear that the safest idea is to reopen slowly, in phases, while remaining ready to reenter lockdown in case of new outbreaks. By looking at how well a nation managed the first wave of the pandemic, and how ready it is to work remotely by falling back onto the online economy, we now understand how prepared nations are to restart economic activity without triggering fresh rounds of public health disasters.</p>
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<h2>Public health and technology</h2>
<p>Not every country is well equipped to ease itself out of a lockdown safely. </p>
<p>A nation’s ability to manage the outbreak relies on many factors: the willingness of governments to take decisive action; citizen compliance in staying home and social distancing; and capacity for adequate testing for the disease, including “contact tracing” – tracking down the people who have been in contact with those infected. Those characteristics are also key to managing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer.html">future outbreaks</a>. </p>
<p>In parallel, not every country is ready to shift much of its economic activity online. Around the world, not everyone has affordable, reliable internet service; or the jobs, devices and digital apps that would let them work productively from home; or ways to make payments and get public services online. In some countries – though not all – workers who can’t do their jobs remotely can reduce their in-person contact by using digital transactions, whether it is for carry-out food, e-commerce or receiving bailout checks and unemployment benefits.</p>
<p>Countries such as Germany, New Zealand and South Korea are strong in both disease-fighting and digital-economy preparedness. Their economic activity isn’t as dependent on in-person interactions, and authorities can respond quickly if loosened rules result in a spike in cases. In contrast, the U.S., Italy and Japan face different challenges before they can safely lift lockdowns.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332542/original/file-20200504-83779-ylhrzk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Japanese residents enjoy a beach while wearing masks and staying apart from each other, as Japan’s emergency lockdown continues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-wearing-a-face-mask-runs-along-the-beachfront-during-news-photo/1211596653?adppopup=true">Carl Court/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Difficulties ahead for the US</h2>
<p>Compared to countries worldwide, the U.S. is <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/04/which-countries-were-and-werent-ready-for-remote-work">more prepared to operate parts of its economy online</a>, but its response to the outbreak indicates there may be difficulties after reopening. States were <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-which-states-stay-at-home-order-trnd/index.html">inconsistent in issuing</a> stay-at-home orders, and <a href="https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/">citizens’ compliance</a> with the rules has varied widely.</p>
<p>Officials have been <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing">unable to test in large numbers</a>, and only <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/28/846736937/we-asked-all-50-states-about-their-contact-tracing-capacity-heres-what-we-learne">four states meet, or are on track to meet</a>, the contact-tracing required to control future outbreaks.</p>
<p>The results are evident in the mortality rates in the U.S. and other, better-prepared countries: On May 5, the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=USA+KOR+NZL+DEU">key statistic</a> shows the U.S. death rate was more than three times that of Germany, nearly 200 times those in New Zealand and South Korea.</p>
<h2>What made the difference?</h2>
<p>The countries that more efficiently managed this first outbreak and its consequences capitalized on their public health preparation to get a grip on the infection quickly. Germany has a <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6">high volume of infections but low mortality</a>. The country only knows this because it had tested extensively – at a rate of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21225916/coronavirus-in-germany-angela-merkel-lifting-lockdown">21 people per 1,000</a>, as compared with 9.8 per 1,000 in the U.S.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s government proved willing to rapidly <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker">impose severe restrictions on movement</a> and found the public <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/08-04-2020/almost-90-of-new-zealanders-back-ardern-government-on-covid-19-poll/">largely supportive</a> and ready to <a href="https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/">comply</a>.</p>
<p>South Korea, while among the earliest countries affected, kept its mortality <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus">among the lowest in the world</a> through <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/test-trace-contain-how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve">widespread testing</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.html">deploying technology</a> for widespread contact tracing. Infected individuals’ interactions were <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/how-surveillance-technology-powered-south-koreas-covid-19-response/">retraced</a> using cellphone location data, surveillance camera footage and credit card records. Websites and apps offer details on infected people’s travel and exposure risks.</p>
<p>These approaches may prove hard for the U.S. to replicate. The country is <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/495956-most-states-fall-short-of-basic-coronavirus">far from having testing rates</a> like Germany’s. New Zealand has a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/28/united-states-presidential-leadership-polarization-and-coronavirus-pub-81643">much less polarized citizenry and far more trust</a> in its national leadership than the U.S. The South Korean technology-intensive approach to contact tracing <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-could-be-abused-privacy-experts-take-cautious-approach-to-apple-and-googles-coronavirus-contact-tracing-technology-2020-04-16">would be considered too intrusive</a> on individual privacy for the U.S.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332543/original/file-20200504-83725-1pnq6id.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A thermal camera monitor shows the body temperatures of passengers as they wait in line before boarding airplanes at an airport in Seoul, South Korea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-South-Korea/a98782252811437dbae7513bb35e4ca4/42/0">AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Troubles for other nations, too</h2>
<p>Italy <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/05/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-reopen.html">initially underestimated</a> the severity of its outbreak, but then imposed a strict lockdown with high citizen compliance and widespread testing and tracing. However, we found in our study that <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/04/which-countries-were-and-werent-ready-for-remote-work">Italy is among the least prepared</a> European Union members for a shift to a digital economy. Germany, New Zealand and South Korea all have higher levels of internet access and service, digital payments and public services, and employers ready to handle remote work. </p>
<p>Japan’s situation is <a href="https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/how-shinzo-abe-has-fumbled-japans-coronavirus-response/">particularly challenging</a> because it eased up its restrictions too early and then <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52313807">had to impose an emergency</a> to stem additional outbreaks. It is also relatively unprepared in digital terms because of a <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/22/national/social-issues/coronavirus-remote-work-not-option-for-all/#.XrGVbBNKigQ">host of factors</a>, ranging from peer pressure to come into the office, to security concerns, transactions that require a paper trail, often requiring <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/business/japan-coronavirus-telework.html">official corporate seals</a>, missing digital infrastructure and a continued <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fdbdb92c-a6ea-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04">aversion to digital payments</a>.</p>
<p>Each of these countries is a wealthy, developed nation, so the differences are not due to affordability. Our research has found that preparedness requires not just funding but also farsighted, credible and transparent leadership and citizens’ trust in that leadership. The first leads to timely and firm decisions, and the second contributes to citizens’ willingness to cooperate with those decisions.</p>
<p>For instance, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s background as a trained scientist gave her <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html">powerful credibility</a> when facing a scientific crisis. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern clearly explained her “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-new-zealand-jacinda-ardern-cases-deaths-leadership-a9460591.html">go early, go hard</a>” approach to lockdown restrictions, and her citizens agreed. In South Korea, authorities controlled the virus through “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/test-trace-contain-how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve">decisive and transparent leadership based on data, not emotion</a>.” </p>
<p>As governments seek their own exit pathways, and aim to strengthen areas where they are weak, there’s no way to be completely certain or fully prepared for what might happen next. </p>
<p>In our research, we’ve found one principle that governments might find useful to guide them through the uncertainty. It’s from a former New Zealand prime minister, Helen Clark: “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand-ardern/new-zealands-lockdown-contained-coronavirus-now-comes-the-hard-part-idUSKBN2230XW">Economies can recover; the dead can’t</a>.”</p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136223/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bhaskar Chakravorti has founded and directs the Institute for Business in the Global Context at Fletcher/Tufts that has received funding from Mastercard, Microsoft, the Gates Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation and the Onassis Foundation. He is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Brookings India and a Senior Advisor on Digital Inclusion at the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth.</span></em></p>It’s possible to evaluate countries’ readiness to lift their lockdowns, based on how well they managed the first wave of the pandemic, and how ready they are for a digital economy.Bhaskar Chakravorti, Dean of Global Business, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1369422020-04-23T08:04:55Z2020-04-23T08:04:55ZWhy coronavirus emerges in clusters, and how New Zealand plans to eliminate outbreaks after lockdown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329981/original/file-20200423-47784-23k0ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C118%2C6567%2C3170&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After four weeks of some of the <a href="https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/">world’s strictest lockdown conditions</a>, New Zealand now records much higher numbers of people who have recovered from COVID-19 than new infections.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases">April 23 update</a>, the Ministry of Health <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/414950/covid-19-three-new-cases-in-nz-two-further-deaths-reported">reported</a> only three new cases – though another two people died, taking the death toll to 16. The <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases">total number of cases is 1451</a>, with more than a thousand people having now recovered from the illness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329993/original/file-20200423-47841-1lovqdt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases">April 23 update, New Zealand's Ministry of Health</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>As New Zealand prepares to <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/alert-level-3-restrictions-announced">ease lockdown</a> conditions <a href="https://theconversation.com/delight-relief-and-caution-six-experts-on-new-zealands-move-to-ease-its-coronavirus-lockdown-136715">from April 28</a>, it can expect new clusters of infections to emerge, as has been happening in <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/586759/covid-19-resurges-northeast-china">northeast parts of China</a>.</p>
<p>But it plans to continue using a combination of testing and contact tracing to stamp out the spread of COVID-19.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-weekly-as-virus-numbers-peak-governments-are-charting-the-path-out-of-lockdown-136712">Coronavirus weekly: as virus numbers peak, governments are charting the path out of lockdown</a>
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<h2>How new clusters can emerge – even with closed borders</h2>
<p>New Zealand moves on to <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/latest-updates/new-zealand-be-at-alert-level-3-from-tuesday-28-april/">two weeks of level 3 lockdown</a> from Tuesday, and people who cannot work from home will start returning to their workplaces, if they can maintain social distancing measures.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-border-controls">Border controls</a> will remain in place indefinitely to avoid new introductions of coronavirus.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said New Zealand will continue to pursue its goal of elimination with a strategy that differs from most other countries.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Success doesn’t mean zero COVID-19 cases. It means zero tolerance, which means that as soon as we know we have a case, we go in straight away, we’re testing around that person, we’re isolating them […] we do our interviews and contact trace to find all the people who have been in contact with them while they may have passed it on, and we ask them to isolate. That’s how we keep stamping out COVID cases. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>New Zealand now has <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters">16 significant clusters</a>, with more than 90 people associated with the two largest of them. People in each cluster are from different households, but they are connected through transmission. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=728&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=728&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329994/original/file-20200423-47784-1s9tqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=728&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The location of identified COVID-19 cases across New Zealand, shown by district health board area, as of April 23.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329995/original/file-20200423-47847-lspcj1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As of April 23, 1,065 of New Zealand’s 1,451 COVID-19 cases had recovered, while 16 people had died. This shows total cases by district health board area.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clusters are the starting points of epidemics or local outbreaks. Epidemiologists think of clusters like networks through which an infection can propagate. If different networks are connected by one or more common members who can travel from one network to another, clusters can join and grow. </p>
<p>Likewise, if networks are kept isolated from each other, the chain of transmission is broken. This is how lockdowns work. Each of our household bubbles is a small network, and as long as we can maintain that bubble without connecting with others outside of our own, we prevent new clusters. </p>
<p>But new cases have continued to emerge because:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>even under stringent lockdown conditions and self-isolation, people still need to access public places such as supermarkets where they are at risk of exposure</p></li>
<li><p>COVID-19 has a variable <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses">infectious period</a> and many people don’t show symptoms but can still infect others </p></li>
<li><p>some people within clusters were infected before lockdown started, and continued to infect others within small networks. </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Why contact tracing is crucial beyond lockdown</h2>
<p>When lockdown conditions ease, people who return to work and children who go back to school will move between networks. This will increase the risk of new infections, but testing has ramped up significantly during the weeks under level 4 conditions and will continue to increase to capture new infections. In some regions, <a href="https://www.countiesmanukau.health.nz/news/covid-19-sentinel-community-testing-undertaken-in-auckland/">sentinel community testing</a> was carried out to identify any symptom-free cases.</p>
<p>Testing laboratories now process <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#lab">thousands of COVID-10 tests</a> every day, with a record 6480 tests carried out on April 22. The total number of tests is now 101,277.</p>
<p>At the same time, contact tracing has also increased to identify different network structures and clusters. Contact tracers start with an “index” person and track everyone who was connected to that individual to interrupt any forward transmission as the contacts are isolated. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-contact-tracing-apps-most-of-us-wont-cooperate-unless-everyone-does-135959">Coronavirus contact-tracing apps: most of us won’t cooperate unless everyone does</a>
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<p>When the COVID-19 outbreak began in New Zealand, the capacity for <a href="https://yournz.org/2020/04/21/audit-of-contact-tracing-for-covid-19-in-new-zealand/">contact tracing was limited</a>, but rapid case detection, contact tracing and isolation now has over <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/rapid-audit-contact-tracing-covid-19-new-zealand">90% efficacy against COVID-19 at the population level</a>.</p>
<p>Contact tracing is important for mapping the networks of infected people. “Super spreaders” – individuals who move between clusters – can be identified quickly and their movements tracked. This will help to contain any new clusters. </p>
<p>Manual contact tracing for an outbreak on the scale of COVID-19 needs to be supplemented with digital tools such as <a href="https://info.flutracking.net/">Flutracker</a>. The Ministry of Health is also considering a contact tracing app like Singapore’s <a href="https://www.tracetogether.gov.sg/">TraceTogether</a> to prevent large clusters. </p>
<p>With continued contact tracing, we expect the number of new cases to remain low and with border controls preventing imported cases, any emerging new clusters should be able to be detected and contained rapidly. This intervention is central to COVID-19 elimination in New Zealand.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136942/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arindam Basu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As New Zealand prepares to ease its lockdown from April 28, new COVID-19 clusters are likely to emerge – but a combination of testing and contact tracing should be able to stamp out major outbreaks.Arindam Basu, Associate Professor, Epidemiology and Environmental Health, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1367152020-04-20T07:07:57Z2020-04-20T07:07:57ZDelight, relief and caution: six experts on New Zealand’s move to ease its coronavirus lockdown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328977/original/file-20200420-152581-h9johi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C205%2C4889%2C2800&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand will begin easing its national lockdown from next Tuesday, but only after a five-day extension of some of the <a href="https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/">world’s strictest</a> COVID-19 restrictions.</p>
<p>New Zealand will then remain at <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/latest-updates/new-zealand-be-at-alert-level-3-from-tuesday-28-april/">alert level 3</a> for two weeks, before a further government review and decision on May 11 about whether to relax restrictions further.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announcing that New Zealand will stay at level 4 until midnight on Monday.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Prime Minister <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/prime-minister%E2%80%99s-remarks-covid-19-alert-level-decision-%E2%80%93-april-20">Jacinda Ardern said</a> the sacrifice New Zealanders have made to date has been huge, but the short extension of level 4 conditions – to cover a public holiday long weekend – locks in the gains made and provides added certainty. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Waiting to move alert levels next week cost us just two more business days but gives us much greater long-term health and economic returns down the track. It means we are less likely to have to go backwards. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>She also reiterated New Zealand’s goal of eliminating COVID-19.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Elimination doesn’t mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases. It means when a case emerges, and it will, we test, we contact trace, we isolate, and we do that every single time with the ambition that when we see COVID-19, we eliminate it. That is how we will keep our transmission rate under 1, and it is how we will keep succeeding.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As of <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases">Monday April 20</a>, New Zealand has had 1,440 cases of COVID-19. 12 people have died from COVID-19 in New Zealand, while 974 people have recovered. </p>
<p>Below, New Zealand experts in public health, psychology, economics and politics give their take on the government’s decision.</p>
<h2>A cautious welcome from a leading elimination advocate</h2>
<p>Today’s announcement about stepping down the response levels is a welcome one. Last month New Zealand made the big decision to adopt an elimination goal in response to COVID-19 and go into a very tight lockdown. That move has achieved much in terms of reducing virus transmission and giving us time to get key systems working to ensure we can sustain elimination. </p>
<p>The discussion now is all about coming out of alert level 4 in a way that provides a high level of certainty we will achieve elimination. This is very different to coming out of lockdown in most countries, where the goal is just to suppress transmission rather than achieve elimination.</p>
<p>There are reasons we need to be cautious. The modelling work conducted by <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/">Te Pūnaha Matatini</a> suggests we need two more weeks in lockdown to improve the chances of virus elimination. There are also concerns about partial opening of schools and early childhood centres at alert level 3 when there is uncertainty about the role of children in COVID-19 transmission. </p>
<p>That said, the move to level 3 on April 28 is probably a manageable compromise. We need to get businesses working again for the health of people and the economy.</p>
<p><strong>– Professor of public health at the University of Otago <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-baker-169808">Michael Baker</a></strong></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/overjoyed-a-leading-health-expert-on-new-zealands-coronavirus-shutdown-and-the-challenging-weeks-ahead-134395">'Overjoyed': a leading health expert on New Zealand's coronavirus shutdown, and the challenging weeks ahead</a>
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<h2>New clusters will emerge, but COVID-19 is under control</h2>
<p>As Prime Minister Ardern stated today, the effective reproduction number is now less than 0.5 (~0.48). If you contrast this to the situation roughly one month back, this number was around 2, and the infection was taking on an exponential growth.</p>
<p>In the absence of a vaccine, New Zealand have been successful in containing the epidemic using strong public health measures. When you combine this with increasing numbers of tests and contact tracing, the claim that community transmission is under control and transmission rate is low is fully justified.</p>
<p>Contact tracing works best during the “tail” of the epidemic, either during the first phase when the epidemic is “rising” or situations such as this in New Zealand when the infection is “dying out”.</p>
<p>We have ramped up our contact tracing at this stage and this will be sure to interrupt the chain of transmission of new outbreaks, as contact tracing and isolation will quickly bring the effective reproduction number under control. We may continue to see some new clusters emerge but they can be quickly addressed and mitigated.</p>
<p><strong>– Associate professor of epidemiology and environmental health at the University of Canterbury <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/arindam-basu-93395">Arindam Basu</a></strong></p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-herd-immunity-route-to-fighting-coronavirus-is-unethical-and-potentially-dangerous-133765">The 'herd immunity' route to fighting coronavirus is unethical and potentially dangerous</a>
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<h2>Relief and a renewed sense of purpose</h2>
<p>Many New Zealanders will likely feel a sense of relief about the government’s announcement that we will come out of level 4 lockdown next Monday night. Most seemed to be hoping for this response and to have stayed at Level 4 for any longer may have prompted exhaustion and frustration. </p>
<p>However, we are now on the home straight and the finish line is in sight. Moving out of level 4 with too little warning could have increased panic again, with schools and businesses rushing to prepare themselves and in doing so risking tripping up before the race is completed.</p>
<p>The allowance for businesses and schools to be restocked and cleaned this week may give people a sense of purpose and some level of control over their situation, perhaps cleverly diverting any restless energy into something productive. The timeline for when we might move out of level 3 further helps us psychologically, as clear expectations and boundaries assist us to feel calm and stick to the limits for one more week.</p>
<p><strong>– Clinical psychologist at Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dougal-sutherland-747623">Dougal Sutherland</a></strong></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychology-of-lockdown-suggests-sticking-to-rules-gets-harder-the-longer-it-continues-135927">The psychology of lockdown suggests sticking to rules gets harder the longer it continues</a>
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<h2>How every Kiwi can help catch future outbreaks</h2>
<p>One key aspect of our response to COVID-19 continues to be understanding where the virus is being transmitted. Regardless of how the decision could have turned out today, we really do need to keep track of our movements. </p>
<p>This means we should keep a diary of where we’ve been and who we’ve been with for the foreseeable future. If we ever become infected with COVID-19 or a close contact of someone who has the virus, tracing 80% of all our close contacts within three days is the “gold standard”. </p>
<p>We can all help speed this up by tracking our movements. To remind us where we’ve all been, we could use social media check-ins, Google location history, or, if we have been shopping, we can look at our receipts or credit card and EFTPOS records.</p>
<p>There has also been discussion about technology and apps as one solution to controlling the pandemic. But, let’s not forget, we need COVID-19 testing for any apps to work. No tests, no point in an app, because these apps rely on testing. The apps are only ever a support to the hard work of testing and contact tracing.</p>
<p><strong>– Associate professor in health and medical geography at the University of Canterbury <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/malcolm-campbell-158395">Malcolm Campbell</a></strong></p>
<h2>Protecting lives as well as livelihoods</h2>
<p>I am delighted with the decision of our government to extend the level 4 restrictions by only five days. The prime minister noted that our estimate of the transmission rate of the virus dropped to 0.48. This is not only far less than elsewhere in the world, but also less than the assumptions made by some modellers. It highlights how rigorously most Kiwis adhere to level 4 restrictions.</p>
<p>Political realities aside – and noting that the key coalition partner obviously had to be taken on board – the decision gives us the ability to take sufficiently good control of the epidemic before allowing some 400,000 New Zealanders to return to some form of paid employment, which is essential for their well-being. </p>
<p>I am particularly delighted the prime minister was again able to find the middle ground and balance the protection of our lives and livelihoods.</p>
<p><strong>– Professor of macroeconomics at Massey University <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-berka-387355">Martin Berka</a></strong></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/protecting-lives-and-livelihoods-the-data-on-why-new-zealand-should-relax-its-coronavirus-lockdown-from-thursday-136242">Protecting lives and livelihoods: the data on why New Zealand should relax its coronavirus lockdown from Thursday</a>
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<h2>The politics of uniting a coalition government</h2>
<p>The prime minister made it clear today’s decision was based on the recommendation of the director-general of health. So there is science in here – but there is politics too. </p>
<p>Jacinda Ardern heads a coalition government containing ministers from three different parties. The challenges of holding a multi-party government together in the best of times are formidable, and call for a range of political <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-jacinda-arderns-coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-crisis-leadership-135541">leadership skills</a> that are not always required of single party governments. These are not the best of times, of course, so the fact no one in Ardern’s government has – so far – publicly broken ranks on the government’s approach to the COVID-19 crisis speaks volumes for the way the government is being run.</p>
<p>One other advantage of coalition governments is they can bring a wider range of perspectives and voices to policy decision making than is sometimes possible under single party government. When three parties govern together they necessarily bring a significant swathe of public opinion into the process. Decisions, therefore, are likely to be supported and to endure in ways that do not always occur when there is just one party at the cabinet table.</p>
<p>But no matter how many parties there are in government, there can only be one government and one message. The prime minister’s job today was to ensure each of the governing parties’ perspectives contributed to the final decision to come out of alert level 4. </p>
<p>It is still too soon to tell, but the early indications are that she got the call right.</p>
<p><strong>– Professor of politics at Massey University <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-shaw-118987">Richard Shaw</a></strong></p>
<p><em>Stay in touch with The Conversation’s coverage from New Zealand experts by signing up for our <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/newsletters/new-zealand-weekly-58">weekly NZ newsletter</a> – delivered to you each Wednesday.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dougal Sutherland works for Victoria University of Wellington and is an Associate of Umbrella Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Baker is a member of the Technical Advisory Group, established as part of the Ministry of Health’s response to COVID-19. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arindam Basu, Malcolm Campbell, Martin Berka, and Richard Shaw do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand will begin easing its national lockdown from next Tuesday, after an extra five days of some of the world’s strictest COVID-19 restrictions. Six NZ experts give their take on the news.Dougal Sutherland, Clinical Psychologist, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonArindam Basu, Associate Professor, Epidemiology and Environmental Health, University of CanterburyMalcolm Campbell, Associate Professor in Health and Medical Geography; Deputy Director GeoHealth Laboratory, University of CanterburyMartin Berka, Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance, Massey UniversityMichael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoRichard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1362422020-04-17T06:02:12Z2020-04-17T06:02:12ZProtecting lives and livelihoods: the data on why New Zealand should relax its coronavirus lockdown from Thursday<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328584/original/file-20200417-192715-fjvizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=87%2C219%2C4801%2C3027&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand has the most stringent COVID-19 policy restrictions in the world, matched only by Israel and India, according to Oxford University’s <a href="https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/">coronavirus government response tracker</a>. </p>
<p>The current level 4 restrictions have brought the number of cases down, and I am delighted the government acted <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120731509/coronavirus-how-hard-how-early-the-numbers-behind-new-zealands-quick-lockdown">quickly</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/overjoyed-a-leading-health-expert-on-new-zealands-coronavirus-shutdown-and-the-challenging-weeks-ahead-134395">strongly</a>. But the <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/alert-level-3-restrictions-announced">newly announced level 3 conditions</a> remain stringent, with ongoing border controls, limited domestic travel, and continued closures in many business sectors, including retail and hospitality. </p>
<p>On Monday, the government will announce whether New Zealand will remain in level 4 lockdown for longer, or move to level 3. The obvious trade-off lies between the loss of economic opportunities and the preservation of life. </p>
<p>Based on a combination of international and local data, I argue that New Zealand should go ahead and step back its restrictions from Thursday, because level 3 provides sufficient health outcomes without the worst economic impacts of level 4.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-coronavirus-elimination-strategy-has-united-a-nation-can-that-unity-outlast-lockdown-135040">New Zealand's coronavirus elimination strategy has united a nation. Can that unity outlast lockdown?</a>
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<h2>NZ’s world-leading COVID-19 death rate</h2>
<p>As the table below shows, New Zealand boasts the lowest mortality rate (0.1%, as of April 8) and ranks among the lowest on the number of confirmed cases per 100,000 people. New Zealand’s government can be proud of these health outcomes. </p>
<p>The Oxford tracker calculates a policy stringency index by combining 13 policy indicators, including school and workplace closures, travel bans, as well as fiscal policy measures. </p>
<iframe title="Government response to COVID-19" aria-label="Table" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EEBz9/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="1125"></iframe>
<p>The links between the stringency index, the number of confirmed cases and case mortality, are complex. In the case of New Zealand, good health outcomes are largely the result of stringent policy. In Italy, the reverse is the case as policy stringency followed rapidly deteriorating health outcomes. </p>
<p>From an economic point of view, the key difference is that while many countries required workplaces to shut down, New Zealand went further; its closures during level 4 have extended to every non-essential business, leaving only supermarkets and pharmacies open.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-new-zealanders-lives-and-liberties-will-be-heavily-controlled-even-after-lockdown-eases-136237">Five ways New Zealanders' lives and liberties will be heavily controlled, even after lockdown eases</a>
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<h2>Scenarios of COVID-19 impacts</h2>
<p>This week, the New Zealand Treasury released a <a href="https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/tr/treasury-report-t2020-973-economic-scenarios-13-april-2020">report</a> with <a href="https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2020-04/c19-4265378-t2020-973-economic-scenarios-v3.pdf">five different scenarios of economic impacts</a> from COVID-19. </p>
<p>In one of the worst case scenarios, in which New Zealand stays at level 4 lockdown for six months, followed by another six months of level 3 restrictions, treasury forecast an unemployment rate of around 26% and a drop in GDP by 37%. This would be unprecedented in New Zealand history (the worst real annual GDP growth rate since 1860 was -7.07% in 1932, and the highest unemployment since 1970 at 11% in 1991). This scenario is very unlikely to happen, given no one in the government has been talking about staying at level 4 for that long.</p>
<p>In the most positive scenario, New Zealand would end its current level 4 lockdown after one month, followed by another month of level 3 and ten months at levels 2 and 1. In this case, treasury estimates GDP would drop by around 5% and unemployment would peak at around 8%, but only because of the government’s <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/feature/covid-19-economic-response-package">NZ$12 billion rescue package</a>. This may seem more palatable, but is still far worse than the recession that followed the 2008 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/the-global-financial-crisis.html">global financial crisis</a>, when New Zealand’s GDP declined by 2.2% and unemployment peaked at 6.9%.</p>
<p>The government’s unprecedented fiscal response will protect employment, but it offers limited protection from a drop in GDP. This is because the government is effectively paying workers to <em>not</em> work. This protects incomes, but because most aren’t actually allowed to work, GDP drops more than employment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychology-of-lockdown-suggests-sticking-to-rules-gets-harder-the-longer-it-continues-135927">The psychology of lockdown suggests sticking to rules gets harder the longer it continues</a>
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<h2>Putting a value on lives lost</h2>
<p>We rightfully feel repulsed by the notion of putting a price tag on life. But <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/mortality-risk-valuation-in-environment-health-and-transport-policies_9789264130807-en">every government uses estimates</a> of a “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3379967">value of statistical life</a>” in designing its health care policies and decisions about which life-saving drugs to fund. </p>
<p>There are hundreds of such estimates in the academic and policy literature. For example, the US <a href="https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/report-epa-work-group-vsl-meta-analyses-2006">Environmental Protection Agency</a> uses a value estimate of around US$10 million per life, the Australian government indicates A$3.5 million, and the European Commission estimates €1-2 million. </p>
<p>If we assume value of statistical life of NZ$5 million (similar to the estimates in <a href="https://fireandemergency.nz/assets/Documents/Research-and-reports/Report-79-Value-of-Statistical-Life.pdf">this report for the New Zealand Fire Service Commission</a>), a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the policies in the tougher treasury scenario outlined above – of staying at level 4 lockdown for six months – would need to save at least 16,800 lives, statistically speaking, to have been worth it. </p>
<p>These unpalatable “trade-offs” are nevertheless what government officials consider when deciding when to open up the economy, aware that moving to level 3 will likely cost lives. </p>
<h2>Additional costs of level 4 restrictions</h2>
<p>Having the most stringent policy stance has resulted in an enviable decline in new confirmed coronavirus cases in New Zealand and prevented overloading the healthcare system.</p>
<iframe title="Total active and recovered COVID-19 cases in New Zealand" aria-label="Stacked Column Chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WofOB/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="365"></iframe>
<p>But treasury estimates that if level 4 were to continue for a year, GDP would drop by 15% compared to level 3. In nominal terms, this means around NZ$45.5 billion per year. </p>
<p>The drop in GDP may seem surprising as the differences between the two levels is minor. At level 3, borders remain tightly controlled, people have to keep working from home if possible, and only companies that can implement physical distancing measures are allowed to resume production. Hospitality, retail, tourism and entertainment sectors remain largely closed, except for digital transactions. But these and other services comprise most of the GDP in advanced economies.</p>
<p>This cost also ignores long-term effects of unemployment. Young people will likely be on permanently worse-off earnings paths if we head into a multi-year recession. Poor people will be harder hit because they lack an economic “cushion”. </p>
<h2>The clearest path forward from next week</h2>
<p>I think a strong economic and humane case can be made to relax the rules to level 3 at the end of the current four-week level 4 lockdown, starting from next Thursday.</p>
<p>International <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793">epidemiological policy models</a> of COVID-19 predict that <a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77735">countries will go through cycles</a> of easing and tightening restrictions. </p>
<p>It is practically impossible to eliminate COVID-19 in the short term without major social upheaval caused by an economic depression. Level 4 is no longer an optimal policy because it ignores the livelihoods of almost the entire New Zealand population. Nobody is suggesting to open up the economy completely, but I argue that level 3 restrictions are strict enough to protect lives, while also helping people recover their livelihoods.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s level 3 rules are more stringent than Singapore, Hong Kong or South Korea, and could still cause an unprecedented recession. New Zealand shouldn’t return to level 4 unless there’s a threat of our health system being overrun.</p>
<p><em>* This article is an edited version of a longer original submission; the full 1700 word version <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxtYmVya2F8Z3g6NDI5NGJlZTJmMzU1MzhlMQ&urp=gmail_link">is available here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Berka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Monday, New Zealand will announce if it’s ready to relax some of its COVID-19 restrictions – among the strictest in the world. Based on international and local data, I argue it’s time; here’s why.Martin Berka, Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.