tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/london-mayor-2016-26116/articlesLondon mayor 2016 – The Conversation2016-10-26T09:08:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/675832016-10-26T09:08:22Z2016-10-26T09:08:22ZHeathrow airport may have government approval, but it’s a long way from take off<p>Theresa May’s cabinet has endorsed the proposal <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-decides-on-new-runway-at-heathrow">to build a third runway at Heathrow</a>. It follows 15 years of deliberations over where to expand the UK’s airport capacity. But the decision is less the beginning of the end than the end of the beginning.</p>
<p>The government “approval” still has to be voted through parliament – not scheduled until late next year – and plans for the new runway must also go through a rigorous planning approval process. </p>
<p>There has been much agonising, mainly on account of the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/environmental-audit-committee/news-parliament-2015/airports-commission-report-15-16/">environmental impact</a> – noise and local air pollution – of adding capacity to an already large airport within the bounds of London. MPs that represent affected constituencies are generally opposed, including foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, and education secretary, Justine Greening. </p>
<p>They have been given freedom to object to the decision for a limited time – in aberration of the ministerial code of collective responsibility, which requires cabinet ministers to support government positions. London mayor, Sadiq Khan, is also opposed, preferring expansion at Gatwick, well away from his domain.</p>
<p>But Heathrow is the decision favoured by big business. It was also the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/440316/airports-commission-final-report.pdf">recommendation of the Airports Commission</a> – the independent report commissioned by the government to propose the best solution to the country’s airport capacity problem. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>The process for delivering planning consent for airport expansion will involve an airports “national policy statement”. This is the process that all big infrastructure projects must go through whereby the government sets out its case for the project, followed by public consultation and parliamentary scrutiny, before the policy statement is finalised.</p>
<p>These <a href="https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/legislation-and-advice/national-policy-statements/">national policy statements</a> are a statutory requirement. They provide the framework within which planning inspectors make their recommendations, and are intended to prevent national issues being reopened at a later stage.</p>
<p>Consultation on the Heathrow policy statement would probably take around a year, given the range and contention of the issues involved, and would allow all parties to have their say. Concerns about local air pollution will be prominent. Expect there to be debate, for example, over unpublished (and disputed) <a href="http://www.aef.org.uk/2016/10/06/%e2%80%8bheathrow-air-pollution-research-challenged-by-aviation-environment-federation/">research</a> by the University of Cambridge, which finds that the marginal increase in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) pollution associated with airport expansion would be against the background of reduced NO₂ from other traffic, if Heathrow was expanded.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143260/original/image-20161026-11256-uv6nxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143260/original/image-20161026-11256-uv6nxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143260/original/image-20161026-11256-uv6nxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143260/original/image-20161026-11256-uv6nxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143260/original/image-20161026-11256-uv6nxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143260/original/image-20161026-11256-uv6nxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143260/original/image-20161026-11256-uv6nxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Aerial view of Heathrow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Airport#/media/File:London_-_Heathrow_(LHR_-_EGLL)_AN1572653.jpg">Konstantin Von Wedelstaedt</a></span>
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<p>There are also questions about the affordability of a third runway at Heathrow. Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways, has questioned the costs of expansion <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/05/cheaper-heathrow-expansion-plan-willie-walsh-third-runway">and the impact on landing charges</a>. He said: “I honestly can’t see how you can spend that much money on an airport and not discourage people from flying there.”</p>
<p>Gatwick – the alternative option – is unlikely to cease campaigning in the meantime. It <a href="http://www.gatwickobviously.com/debate">has argued vigorously</a> that it should be allowed to add another runway, which would be built faster, be less costly and have less of an f an environmental impact than Heathrow. </p>
<p>An issue for the draft national policy statement is whether Gatwick should have the option of expanding, as well as Heathrow, to achieve more competition. This, however, could lead to the owners of Stansted Airport <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/14/heathrow-gatwick-runways-theresa-may-manchester-airports-group">launching a legal challenge</a>, on the grounds that it has not been given the opportunity to present its own case for expansion.</p>
<h2>A long way to go</h2>
<p>When it is scrutinised in parliament, the Heathrow expansion plans will face probing questions, not least from the <a href="http://www.heathrowappg.com/heathrow-expansion-a-risk-assessment-press-release/">All Party Parliamentary Group on Heathrow</a>, which has already identified 16 serious risks that could stop or delay expansion. As well as the pollution issue, these include concerns about excessive noise, and a whole variety of likely legal challenges. It will then face a vote, which is likely to be a free one to allow dissenting Conservative MPs to register the unhappiness of their constituents – so no assured outcome here.</p>
<p>Evidently, there is a long way to go before construction could start at Heathrow. The timeline includes publication of the draft airports national policy statement, public consultation, the government’s response, parliamentary scrutiny and endorsement (all of which could take a year), a public examination by a planning inspector of the detailed plans (which could take another year), the inspector’s report, and the final decision of the secretary of state for transport. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the finances would need to be agreed, including the necessary increase in airport landing charges to recover the costs, as well as the issue of who pays for surface transport provision.</p>
<p>It is worth recalling that planning consent for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/hinkley-point-c-13861">Hinkley Point C nuclear power station</a> was originally given in 1990, following a year-long public inquiry. Agreement to begin construction was reached only in September 2016. The delay was mainly due to difficulties about financing a plant that generates high cost electricity, but it is a salutary warning of the length of time it can take for large and contentious infrastructure proposals to even get to the point of starting construction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Heathrow’s bid for a third runway is not over yet. Political wrangling, environmental concerns, planning and financing must all be overcome.David Metz, Honorary Professor of Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/616212016-06-27T14:09:37Z2016-06-27T14:09:37ZLondon: three reasons why calls for more autonomy should be taken seriously<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128198/original/image-20160626-28395-1lh7car.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">City Hall: London's new Westminster?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lulek/10324612954/sizes/l">Maciej Lulko/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the UK begins its tortuous path to leave Europe, <a href="https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu">many are asking</a> whether it might not be time for London to leave the UK. While the Scottish Nationalist Party gears up to push for <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/scottish-independence-has-nearly-60-per-cent-support-poll-finds/">another independence referendum</a>, and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-united-martin-mcguinness-a7099276.html">similar considerations</a> emerge in Northern Ireland, the possibility of a poll in Greater London doesn’t actually seem too absurd. </p>
<p>The capital is one of the world’s most prominent global cities and a truly cosmopolitan hub, with a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31082941">population of 8.6m</a> (compared with <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/PopulationMigration">Scotland’s 5.3m</a>). So, could London secede and stand on its own merits as a new city-state? There are a number of reasons to think so. </p>
<h2>1. It’s popular with Londoners</h2>
<p>The notion of an independent London already seems to be enjoying significant popular support. The capital <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/">voted to remain</a> in the EU by a significant margin: roughly 2.3m people (almost 60%) voted to stay in, with only five of London’s 32 boroughs preferring to leave.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tens-of-thousands-expected-to-protest-brexit-result-at-london-stays-rally-in-trafalgar-square-a7102866.html">protests in Trafalgar Square</a> and <a href="https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu">160,000 signatures</a> on a petition in favour of “#Londependence”, seem to confirm the public support for a city-state.</p>
<p>An independence vote by London residents – not just British citizens – might yield even more convincing results. The <a href="http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/london-census-profile">3m foreign-born residents</a> of Greater London make up 36.7% of the city’s population, and they are unlikely to sympathise with the nationalism and isolationism of the Leave campaign. </p>
<p>Indeed, they recently helped to elect <a href="https://theconversation.com/sadiq-khan-british-dream-now-a-reality-for-londons-first-muslim-mayor-58945">London’s first Muslim mayor</a>, Sadiq Khan, who is decidedly pro-Europe. In the wake of the Brexit vote, Khan rushed to address the city’s European residents <a href="https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1176236902429095&id=275283499191111">via social media</a>, saying: “To every European resident living in London: you are very welcome here.” </p>
<h2>2. There’s a strong financial incentive</h2>
<p>London is tightly intertwined with Europe: the EU is London’s biggest trading partner, responsible for <a href="http://londonfirst.co.uk/our-focus/londons-relationship-with-europe/">30% to 40%</a> of its exports. At the same time, London also attracts the most foreign direct investment of any city in Europe and <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21693610-many-britons-think-london-too-big-it-really-too-small-gotham-thames">some argue</a> that it should grow even bigger. So, Brexit could have very real consequences for the status and sustainability for a global city like London. </p>
<p>Indeed, just hours after the results came in, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/24/global-markets-ftse-pound-uk-leave-eu-brexit-live-updates">signs of damage</a> started to surface. Finance giant JP Morgan Chase look set to follow through on <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/23d576b0-386a-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f">previous warnings that</a> as many as 4,000 of its 16,000 UK personnel could lose their jobs, while HSBC could relocate 1,000 roles to Paris.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128197/original/image-20160626-28388-17y0yt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128197/original/image-20160626-28388-17y0yt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128197/original/image-20160626-28388-17y0yt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128197/original/image-20160626-28388-17y0yt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128197/original/image-20160626-28388-17y0yt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128197/original/image-20160626-28388-17y0yt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128197/original/image-20160626-28388-17y0yt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dark days for the City.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
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<p>With London’s title as the preeminent global hub for foreign exchange and insurance under threat, the <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/23d576b0-386a-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f">FT suggested</a> it might be time for bankers to “dust off the bowler hat and rolled umbrella uniform of 30 years ago”. And the drain on non-British talent and services will “almost certainly” make for a less international City of London. </p>
<h2>3. It would support the creative industries</h2>
<p>London’s enormous creative class has a huge influence over the city’s fortunes. According to the Greater London Authority (GLA), creative and high-tech industries have increased their gross domestic value by 16% since 2009, and now contribute <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adi-gaskell/londons-leading-role-as-a_b_9367478.html">over £35bn a year</a> to the city. </p>
<p>Education and research might suffer too. London is also home to some of the world’s major universities – some of the few international institutions that can compete with the US giants. Since 2007, UK research has benefited from its connections with Europe <a href="http://www.researchresearch.com/news/article/?articleId=1361132">to the tune of £8.8bn</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128326/original/image-20160627-28366-16ohhd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128326/original/image-20160627-28366-16ohhd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128326/original/image-20160627-28366-16ohhd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128326/original/image-20160627-28366-16ohhd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128326/original/image-20160627-28366-16ohhd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128326/original/image-20160627-28366-16ohhd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128326/original/image-20160627-28366-16ohhd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">At risk of relegation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ofey/93594364/sizes/l">ofey/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>As many as <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/student/news/eu-referendum-result-brexit-leave-remain-higher-education-sector-students-a7100106.html">380,000 jobs</a> rely on the income of up to £3.7bn from EU students, funding from the European Research Council and programmes such as Horizon2020. As several commentators have <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brain-drain-brexit-universities-science-academics-referendum-eu-a7100266.html">already noted</a>, Brexit could have a substantial impact on this, inducing a “brain drain” from the UK. </p>
<h2>A word of caution</h2>
<p>So far, it sounds like a Scottish-style referendum in London could end up in a city-state landslide. And with 23% of the UK’s population and a third of its economic output, London certainly looks like a credible candidate for independence. </p>
<p>But there are grounds for caution. For one thing, decoupling London from the rest of the country would be no small feat. A whole suite of new treaties and concessions would need to be negotiated. It would have <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=URISERV%3Al14536">to apply</a> to join the EU all over again – though Greater London would score well on the <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:12012M002">EU’s dignity, freedom and democracy accession principles</a>. </p>
<p>Certainly, London’s <a>track record in city diplomacy</a> can sustain some degree of international collaboration. Yet the city’s current structures of government, including the GLA, would need to be upgraded to uphold and legitimise London’s sovereignty. And, of course, the UK would need a new capital outside of London – perhaps in the pro-Leave cities of Blackpool or Lancaster.</p>
<h2>Urban connections</h2>
<p>Even under former mayor and vociferous Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson, London’s international diplomatic record was one of cooperation and integration. As EU nation states squabble over national interests and renegotiations, many cities the world over <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/04/around-the-world-mayors-take-charge/275335/">are demonstrating</a> an increasingly convincing track record of collaboration and joint action on matters such as climate change, security and disaster prevention. </p>
<p>Across the world, cities are becoming engines of prosperity. Indeed, many of the UK’s major cities – including Bristol, Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds – voted to remain. So, perhaps, the people and leaders of London should be thinking of ways to salvage the urban characteristics that make cities prosperous: their openness and connections with other places<a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/parag_khanna_how_megacities_are_changing_the_map_of_the_world?language=en">link text</a> . This could require special legal and economic arrangements for UK’s core cities and, not least, London. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128199/original/image-20160626-28373-641skx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128199/original/image-20160626-28373-641skx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128199/original/image-20160626-28373-641skx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128199/original/image-20160626-28373-641skx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128199/original/image-20160626-28373-641skx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128199/original/image-20160626-28373-641skx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128199/original/image-20160626-28373-641skx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Hong Kong does autonomy without sovereignty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dhilung/8415162891/sizes/l">Dhilung/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>Khan has made it quite clear that he’s invested in pursuing this agenda. In <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c19b93f2-3a31-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html#axzz4Cm1Aqjkq">a joint statement</a>, he and Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo committed to “build far stronger alliances between cities across Europe and around the world”. To do so, Khan needs the authority and capacity to spearhead collaborative international efforts. This means securing a place at the table during Brexit negotiations, to ensure cultural and legal tolerance for the millions of foreigners that make London’s success a reality on a daily basis. </p>
<p>There are a couple of options to explore. London could establish itself within a <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2341/638440PUB0Exto00Box0361527B0PUBLIC0.pdf">special economic zone</a>, a la Hong Kong. Or, it could rethink the <a href="http://www.citymayors.com/government/london_corp.html">urban enterprise zone</a> – which defines the City of London – to create a European link for the capital. Neither of these options are unprecedented, and they could salvage the city from a Brexit-induced decline.</p>
<p>There won’t be a referendum on London’s independence. But if measures to safeguard the city’s global role are not taken, many might simply vote with their feet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michele Acuto receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the World Bank Group.</span></em></p>It’s critical to protect London’s European connections from Brexit’s isolationism - could independence be the way forward?Michele Acuto, Professor of Diplomacy and Urban Theory, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/595422016-05-31T10:55:32Z2016-05-31T10:55:32ZHow hyperlocal journalists plug the democratic gap in regional elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124151/original/image-20160526-22038-1vyzdcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Without community journalists, many constituents would be uninformed about local issues.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Community Journalism, Cardiff University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of people voted in the UK’s local and national elections in May, but who can say how well informed they were about local issues? Some <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/london-mayoral-election-results-what-time-will-the-votes-be-coun/">45% of London voters</a> turned out for the mayoral elections, 55.6% voted in the Scottish Parliament election and 45% at the Welsh Assembly elections, but it is near impossible to ascertain what they knew about their nominee’s policies.</p>
<p>The UK’s local <a href="https://theconversation.com/depleted-local-media-threatens-ability-to-hold-those-in-power-to-account-58322">news landscape has been decimated</a> due to mergers, cuts and closures. This has amounted to a steady and widespread withdrawal of professional journalism from our cities, towns and villages – and a resulting drop in information. But all is not lost just yet: at the same time a new generation of “hyperlocal” or community news outlets have emerged.</p>
<p>Often run by volunteers or a small team of professional journalists, these local news websites, papers and magazines are dedicated to the communities in which they are based. The hyperlocal sector is financially precarious, however – a survey I conducted which was published in 2014 indicated that only a <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/research/the-state-of-uk-hyperlocal-community-news-a-survey/">third of community news publishers</a> make any money and those who do are usually making modest amounts. <a href="https://www.journalism.co.uk/news/success-with-mixed-funding-models-brings-optimism-to-community-websites/s2/a604846/">Funded by a mixture</a> of donations, advertising, membership fees, crowdfunding and grants – to survive, this new media sector relies heavily on the dedication of its readers to survive. In order to continue, the hyperlocal outlets need support from their communities from the get-go, drawing local people – and businesses – in not only as consumers but as funders and champions of the cause.</p>
<h2>Grassroots engagement</h2>
<p>Community journalists have a close connection with the areas they cover, routinely reporting on local events and being more likely to quote ordinary people than <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21670811.2014.965932">established newspaper publishers</a>. Many also cover local politics very closely, often reporting on council meetings and supplying electoral information at a grassroots level.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124147/original/image-20160526-22038-1isd0ql.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124147/original/image-20160526-22038-1isd0ql.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124147/original/image-20160526-22038-1isd0ql.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124147/original/image-20160526-22038-1isd0ql.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124147/original/image-20160526-22038-1isd0ql.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124147/original/image-20160526-22038-1isd0ql.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124147/original/image-20160526-22038-1isd0ql.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Community Journalism, Cardiff University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The strong relationships that local outlets build with communities often make for very engaged audiences. The producers of Welsh town website Wrexham.com, for example, <a href="http://www.wrexham.com/news/leader-circulation-drops-a-further-15-with-leaderlive-website-down-4-108573.html">recently wrote about differences</a> between their output and that of the established online news outlet in the area, the Trinity Mirror-owned Wrexham Leader newspaper and accompanying website <a href="http://www.leaderlive.co.uk/">Leader Live</a>. Wrexham.com, which is run by only two full-time journalists, publishes considerably less news than Leader Live – but, by some measures, it claims that its audience engagement far outstrips the paper.</p>
<p>Traditional local publishers continue to retreat from communities, moving from town centres to regional hubs and <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4c85b58-2c75-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.html">closing local offices</a> which used to provide a valuable point of contact with readers. By contrast, hyperlocal journalists typically live and work in the communities they serve and many are committed to engaging with audiences in real life, as well as digital contexts. </p>
<p>In north London, strong engagement with community news service <a href="https://twitter.com/WHampstead">@WHampstead on Twitter</a> translated into a high turnout for its <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/blog/2015/04/17/hosting-a-hustings/">general election hustings event</a>, where the constituency’s candidates were grilled in front of a local audience. Indeed, in hyperlocal news it is now quite common to see this kind of mutually reinforcing real-world and online engagement with politics and community life.</p>
<h2>Encouraging democracy</h2>
<p>Electoral information does not always make for the sexiest of news, and is sometimes downplayed or ignored by local newspaper websites which prioritise clicks over the public interest. To combat this, for this year’s National Assembly for Wales elections, constituency-based website <a href="https://mycardiffnorth.com">My Cardiff North</a> provided information about how to register to vote, who was standing for election locally and details of previous election results for the constituencies in order to inform residents about local issues that the national failed to cover.</p>
<p>During the 2015 general election, community journalists around the country responded to audience questions – around the clock when it came to polling day – on issues such as voter eligibility and the opening times of polling stations. They provided information which could have made the difference between people bothering to vote or not. There was also a commitment to covering even very local <a href="http://alittlebitofstone.com/2015/04/28/stafford-borough-council-elections-walton-ward/">community or borough council elections</a>, explaining issues clearly and in ways that were eye-catching and engaging.</p>
<p>As well as attempting to address the democratic deficit, hyperlocal media has also produced some of the UK’s most innovative electoral coverage. Often finding new ways to engage with audiences and present information, such as organising Twitter hustings and broadcasting <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/blog/2015/05/06/hyperlocal-teams-up-with-the-bbc-and-local-newspaper-for-general-election-debate/">candidate interviews on Periscope</a>.</p>
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<p>The Bristol Cable, an <a href="https://thebristolcable.org/membership/">audience-owned media cooperative</a> with a focus on local investigations, <a href="https://thebristolcable.org/2016/04/mayoral-race/">produced an interactive video</a>, YouTube interviews, and interviews with voters for the 2016 Bristol mayoral elections. It even memorably got the city’s UKIP candidate to <a href="https://thebristolcable.org/2016/04/watch-shock-statement-by-ukip-mayoral-candidate/">call for the resignation</a> of party donor Aaron Banks over tax avoidance issues. Likewise, <a href="http://www.theedinburghreporter.co.uk">The Edinburgh Reporter</a> used smartphone app Replay for the May voting period to <a href="https://twitter.com/EdinReporter/status/727913908275712000">film short interviews with electoral candidates</a>, overlaid with text and graphics.</p>
<p>The efforts of hyperlocal reporters are not going unnoticed either: last year <a href="http://thelincolnite.co.uk">The Lincolnite</a> featured alongside big media behemoths Sky News and The Telegraph in industry website journalism.co.uk’s round-up of <a href="https://www.journalism.co.uk/news/how-have-the-uk-press-innovated-in-their-general-election-coverage-/s2/a565048/">innovative general election coverage</a>. This led to the Lincoln site joining forces with BBC Radio Lincolnshire during the 2016 Police and Crime Commissioner elections, for a <a href="http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/05/candidates-reactions-lincolnshire-pcc-debate/">debate followed by live candidate reactions</a>.</p>
<p>With the EU referendum on the horizon, hyperlocal journalists will no doubt be readying themselves to help local audiences understand just what is going on. Though on a national scale the work of hyperlocals do not entirely fill the widening “news gap” left by retreating traditional publishers, these community news providers are amply demonstrating the value of democratic engagement at a grassroots level.</p>
<p><em>This article was written in collaboration with project officer Hannah Scarbrough from <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/en/">Cardiff University’s Centre for Community journalism</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Williams sits on the steering board of the Centre for Community Journalism at Cardiff University and has received funding from The Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).</span></em></p>Community media is ensuring society stays informed at all political levels.Andy Williams, Lecturer (teaching and research), Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/594912016-05-18T12:48:05Z2016-05-18T12:48:05ZNew mayor Sadiq Khan bodes well for London’s global financial status<p>Promoting economic development and “wealth creation” is one of the London mayor’s <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/29/section/30">three main functions</a> – alongside taking care of the city’s social and environmental development. The fact that London regularly tops major <a href="http://www.longfinance.net/global-financial-centre-index-19/992-gfci-19.html">rankings of global financial centres</a> is a key pillar of the city’s wealth. It’s a reason why international companies establish headquarters in London, providing jobs and wealth to the UK capital. And the election of Sadiq Khan as mayor bodes well for maintaining London’s status as a global financial centre.</p>
<p>Khan’s manifesto gave some insights into his plans for London’s economic development. He emphasised infrastructure as <a href="http://www.sadiq.london/a_modern_and_affordable_transport_network">his main priority</a> – the need to work closely with Westminster to secure big projects and improve the transport networks that will be key for London’s expansion and economic growth.</p>
<p>London’s connectivity has been a key factor in its historic success as a financial hub. Its transport links with the rest of the UK and internationally have enabled it to export its skills and wares to new markets, as they have emerged. Keeping this transport system up-to-date is crucial for accessing both markets and talent. It is fundamental to creating and supporting jobs, enabling the capital to continue to spearhead the UK’s economic growth.</p>
<p>London’s international air links are <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-heathrow-got-the-nod-from-the-airports-commission-report-44149">critical to the capital’s financial health</a>, and indeed for the UK’s, economic success. London is currently at a competitive disadvantage as a result of its increasingly poor connections with growing markets in Asia and Latin America. The city’s airports are operating very close to capacity and expansion is something that the new mayor must oversee.</p>
<p>Where this expansion takes place, however, is still being debated. Khan is opposed to the business consensus of a third runway at Heathrow. On the one hand, his victory could make it easier for the government <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/09/sadiq-khans-victory-gives-heathrow-a-surprise-boost/">to force through a Heathrow expansion</a>. On the other, it could provide a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/12/sadiq-khan-urges-jeremy-corbyn-back-gatwick-expansion">united front</a> that challenges the government and gets a second runway at Gatwick airport built. Either way, expansion is imperative for the city’s economic well-being.</p>
<h2>Business backing</h2>
<p>Tellingly, the wider business community of the UK as a whole and specifically London has shown full faith in Khan as mayor. The Confederation of British Industry, the voice of big business, has said it looked forward to working with him on the issues required <a href="http://realbusiness.co.uk/article/33686-british-business-community-reacts-well-to-london-mayor-nod-for-sadiq-khan">to retain London’s global financial competitiveness</a>. </p>
<p>As well as the backing of big business, Khan <a href="http://www.sadiq.london/business_prosperity_and_opportunity">has also pledged</a> to foster a friendly environment for start-ups, particularly in the fields of financial technology (or fintech). The momentum of London’s FinTech ecosystem over the past few years has played a huge role in putting the capital’s tech scene on the global map, bringing more financial startups to the country. This kind of innovation plays an important role in London retaining its strong position <a href="http://www.cityam.com/238235/fintech-helps-london-to-keep-global-finance-title-but-concerns-about-brexit-housing-and-airport-capacity-must-be-addressed">in global financial competitive rankings</a> </p>
<p>Of course a major challenge that Khan must immediately weather is the EU referendum. A Brexit vote is projected to majorly dampen the UK economy and London’s in particular, in light of its reliance on the City and foreign investment. </p>
<p>Two in five of the 250 largest companies in the world with a main or European headquarters have it in London, <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/london-is-pick-of-europe-for-world-s-biggest-companies-for-headquarters-9238130.html">according to a study by Deloitte</a>. That is five times as many as pick Paris, the second most popular business city in Europe. And the gap grows even larger when looking at just the non-European companies, with 60% of them having their European headquarters in London. But there is no guarantee they will stay if Britain votes to leave the EU.</p>
<p>So the Khan victory is important for the campaign to stay in the EU and, ultimately, the capital’s economy. The new mayor is unashamedly in the remain camp. He pledged to “stand up for the City and financial services – starting by playing a leading role in the fight to keep Britain in Europe”.</p>
<p>A wider economic issue that Khan must tackle is housing and, specifically, affordable housing for all Londoners. Housing has become one of the city’s biggest problems in recent times – not just because of soaring prices and rents, but also because much of the stock being built is luxury flats. Khan has pledged that half of new housing construction in London <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/aa45341e-ef87-11e5-aff5-19b4e253664a">should be affordable to people on average incomes</a>. </p>
<p>London has the distinction of being a global financial centre – it is the business capital not just of Britain, but of Europe and in many ways the wider world. As the new mayor recognised:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Retaining our place at the top is not a given. We need to work hard together to stay competitive, to increase productivity, and to make the most of opportunities for growth in our traditional and new industries. And we need to make it possible for all Londoners to reach the top, regardless of their background, race, religion or gender. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>If Khan delivers on his promises to improve the city’s infrastructure, allow new industries like fintech to flourish and increase the affordable housing that’s available, London will succeed in retaining its status as the go-to global financial centre.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nafis Alam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pro-infrastructure and pro-enterprise, the newly-elected mayor has the policies to keep London a global financial centre.Nafis Alam, Associate Professor of Finance, Director- Centre for Islamic Business and Finance Research (CIBFR), University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/589452016-05-06T20:05:25Z2016-05-06T20:05:25ZSadiq Khan: British dream now a reality for London’s first Muslim mayor<p>In Pakistan, the chances that the son of a bus or rickshaw driver could secure a high-ranking political position in the country’s capital city are minuscule. But now, the people of London <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sadiq-khan-wins-london-mayor-election-result-2016-zac-goldsmith-a7017106.html">have elected Sadiq Khan</a> – the son of an immigrant Pakistani bus driver – to be their first Muslim mayor. </p>
<p>While unable to influence the nation’s foreign or economic policy, Khan will <a href="http://www.london.gov.uk/WHAT-WE-DO">have responsibility</a> for key areas in London, such as transport, housing, policing and the environment. And being directly elected gives the London mayor <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-the-main-contenders-for-london-mayor-and-what-do-they-stand-for-57391">a personal mandate</a> which no other parliamentarian in Westminster – including those in the cabinet – enjoy. </p>
<p>Khan’s father was one of hundreds of Pakistani men who migrated to Britain in the 1950’s and 1960’s, seeking the UK’s version of the American dream: stable employment, social mobility and opportunities for a better future for themselves and their families. One of eight children, Khan grew up on a council estate in the capital. He went to university to study law and practised as a solicitor in human rights cases before becoming a member of parliament. </p>
<p>Now, at the age of 45, he is mayor of London: the economic and cultural heart of the UK, the largest city in western Europe and one of the most important cities in the world. He is the immigrant success story – for him, the British dream has become a reality. </p>
<h2>Race and religion</h2>
<p>Khan’s Islamic faith catapulted the city’s mayoral contest into the international limelight, at a time when Muslims are facing growing hostility in the West. In the US, presidential hopeful Donald Trump <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/07/donald-trump-ban-all-muslims-entering-us-san-bernardino-shooting">has said</a> that he will ban Muslims from entering the country; while in Europe, the far right is gaining traction by campaigning on <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-protests-germany-idUSKCN0VF0P4">explicitly anti-Muslim platforms</a>. </p>
<p>During the mayoral campaign, Khan’s “Muslimness” was viewed as a liability by some – including members of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/01/moderate-sadiq-khan-london-mayor-muslim-labour">his own party</a>. His Conservative rival, Zac Goldsmith, accused Khan of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/sadiq-khan-unfit-to-be-london-mayor-says-zac-goldsmith/">sharing platforms</a> with Islamic extremists – the implication was clear: that the public should be wary of his “radical” views. Goldsmith’s highly controversial campaign has been heavily criticised – notably by senior Conservative <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/06/zac-goldsmith-attacked-by-senior-tory-over-tactics-in-london-mayor-election?CMP=share_btn_tw">Andrew Boff</a> – for its divisive <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/03/deafening-dogwhistle-zac-goldsmith-s-london-mayoral-campaign-leaflets">“dog-whistle” politics</a>. </p>
<p>Khan’s victory supports what a number of Muslim commentators <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/01/moderate-sadiq-khan-london-mayor-muslim-labour">have argued all along</a>: that having a Muslim mayor could help defeat Islamist ideology, by showing that the West is not anti-Islam – and that Muslims can “make it” there. Khan himself <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/02/a-muslim-mayor-of-london-would-send-message-to-the-haters-says-sadiq-khan">has spoken</a> about the symbolic value of becoming the first Muslim mayor of a city which experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-weve-learned-about-radicalisation-since-7-7-bombings-a-decade-ago-44338">terrorist attacks</a> in 2005, perpetrated in the name of Islam. </p>
<h2>Power and privilege</h2>
<p>But Khan’s victory says as much about social mobility as it does about race and religion. Had Khan’s father stayed in Pakistan, it is inconceivable that his son would have succeeded in that country’s political system, where privilege and connections <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/power-and-privilege-146857?rm=eu">win elections</a>. There, political office is often viewed as the birth right of the elite. Indeed, the UK has educated a great many of Pakistan’s political leaders: Mohammad Ali Jinnah – the founder of Pakistan – studied in England in the late 19th century. And Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was educated at Oxford, went on to serve as both as prime minister and president.</p>
<p>By contrast, many Pakistanis who migrated to the UK in the post-war era were <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137275158">subsistence farmers and manual labourers</a>. In many cases, they were illiterate in their own mother tongue. They took up positions in the service industries of the south, the factories and foundries of the Midlands and the mills of northern England. And while some succeeded in pulling themselves out of poverty, the UK’s Pakistani community still has some of the <a href="http://www.ethnicity.ac.uk/medialibrary/briefingsupdated/Ethnic%20inequalities%20in%20labour%20market%20participation.pdf">highest levels of unemployment</a> and underachievement in the UK. Many British Pakistanis live in some of <a href="http://www.ethnicity.ac.uk/medialibrary/briefingsupdated/ethnicity-and-deprivation-in-england-how-likely-are-ethnic-minorities-to-live-in-deprived-neighbourhoods%20(1).pdf">the UK’s most deprived neighbourhoods</a>. </p>
<p>And of course, British politics is also now dominated by an “old boys’ network”: the cliques of Etonions and Bullingdon club members, personified by the prime minister, David Cameron, the chancellor, George Osborne – and indeed London’s outgoing mayor, Boris Johnson. Yet the working-class Khan managed to win out against a Conservative rival with family pedigree, wealth and friends in powerful political, media and business circles. </p>
<p>For many, this is a triumph of meritocracy over privilege – a sign that the political establishment is becoming more inclusive and representative of the ethnic, religious and socioeconomic diversity of the wider population. And Khan is not the only second-generation Pakistani to have entered high political office in the UK. Sajid Javid, the current secretary of state for Business, Innovation and Skills, is the son of a Pakistani immigrant who worked in the mills of the north before becoming a bus driver. So too did the father of Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, who rose to become a member of David Cameron’s cabinet, and was the first Muslim woman to sit at the highest table in the land. In the 2015 general election alone, ten individuals of Pakistani heritage were elected to the British parliament. </p>
<p>And now, in London, the son of a Pakistani immigrant bus driver is in charge. He has become Europe’s most powerful Muslim politician. Khan’s victory has shown us that the British dream can become a reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58945/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parveen Akhtar is the recipient of British Academy and Economic and Social Research Council research grants. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p>The working-class son of a bus driver has been elected to one of the most important roles in UK politics.Parveen Akhtar, Lecturer in Political Science, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/586852016-05-06T09:30:52Z2016-05-06T09:30:52ZLondon’s new mayor needs to lobby for more powers – or risk being left behind<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121427/original/image-20160505-13461-1tdmmif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the new mayor of London, Sadiq Khan will gain command of <a href="https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/what-mayor-london-and-london-assembly-do">a budget worth £17 billion</a> to be spent mainly on fire services, transport and policing. He will also take on responsibilities for culture and the environment, addressing health inequalities, urban regeneration and development. The mayor also has a duty to issue strategy documents covering each of these fields, as well as performing the function of London’s police commissioner. </p>
<p>The mayor is an important symbolic figure: holders of this position have achieved a high profile in the capital and beyond. Both of London’s previous mayors have introduced some attention-grabbing policies: Ken Livingstone brought in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-21451245">congestion charge</a>, while Boris Johnson saw the iconic <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/27/london-boris-bikes-painted-red-santander-sponsorship-deal">“Boris bike” sharing scheme</a> through to completion. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121425/original/image-20160505-32474-kq3gnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121425/original/image-20160505-32474-kq3gnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121425/original/image-20160505-32474-kq3gnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121425/original/image-20160505-32474-kq3gnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121425/original/image-20160505-32474-kq3gnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121425/original/image-20160505-32474-kq3gnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121425/original/image-20160505-32474-kq3gnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Boris bikes (launched by Livingstone).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we should not exaggerate the extent of the London mayor’s powers. The delivery of key local services remains the responsibility of the 32 London boroughs. And alongside the mayor, Londoners have elected a 25-member <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/about-us/london-assembly/about-london-assembly">London Assembly</a>, which helps to hold the mayor to account for his or her activities (though its ability to do so is circumscribed <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/give-london-assembly-more-power-or-get-rid-of-it-says-tory-andrew-boff-7681376.html">to a worrying extent</a>).</p>
<p>Although the capital’s devolved powers have grown modestly over time, they are slight compared with other territories. For example, the devolved parliaments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland all have primary law-making powers across a wide range of fields including education, health and the environment. What’s more, they’re in the process of gaining further autonomy: Scotland is to take on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-income-tax-control-threatens-big-trouble-across-uk-43569">large additional responsibility for tax-raising</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, London is only a city, while Scotland and Wales are nations (the status of Northern Ireland is <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/4172307.stm">more complicated</a>). Yet the population of Greater London stands at slightly under <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31082941">9m people</a>: it far exceeds that of Scotland (<a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/PopulationMigration">about 5m</a>); and is larger than that of Wales (<a href="http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/mid-year-estimates-population/?lang=en">about 3m</a>) and Northern Ireland (<a href="http://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/default.asp10.htm">about 1.8m</a>) combined. And (for better or for worse) the financial and economic importance of London is greater still. </p>
<p>It would certainly not be out of keeping with international democratic practice if a city-region of the scale and significance of London were to enjoy much more autonomy than it does at present. Berlin, for instance, has the status of a state within the German Federal Republic. Though it is not a panacea, the potential advantages of this kind of empowerment are numerous. It enables an area to plan for its own needs, and decide how to raise the money to meet them. And it carries democratic advantages, since policy and services are devised, delivered and held to account much closer to the public they are intended to serve.</p>
<h2>England’s powers evolve</h2>
<p>Until recently, one could argue that – although the powers devolved to the mayor and the Greater London Authority are not extensive – the city was nonetheless in a stronger position than the remainder of England. This is because, while the other parts of the UK obtained and expanded on their devolved authority from the late 1990s onwards, England was left behind. </p>
<p>Initially, the Labour government which instigated devolution had intended to introduce directly-elected assemblies to a group of nine English regions, including Greater London. In 2004, the first referendum was held on the issue of establishing a devolved system in England’s north east. It was thought that there was a greater chance of achieving popular support for devolution in this region, but the proposition was decisively defeated. </p>
<p>Advocates of devolution failed to convince a sceptical north east electorate that a new tier of governance was needed, the “no” campaign proved very effective and the package on offer was perhaps too modest to appear attractive. The Labour government responded by dropping plans for regional devolution, and to many, the whole idea seemed dead.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121428/original/image-20160505-19848-bhriw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121428/original/image-20160505-19848-bhriw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121428/original/image-20160505-19848-bhriw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121428/original/image-20160505-19848-bhriw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121428/original/image-20160505-19848-bhriw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121428/original/image-20160505-19848-bhriw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121428/original/image-20160505-19848-bhriw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sparking the ‘devolution revolution’?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alfmelin/15268726781/sizes/l">alf.melin/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But since Scotland’s referendum on independence in 2014 triggered proposals to extend devolution – especially in Wales and Scotland – the coalition government and its Conservative successor have brought forward plans to bring more devolution to England. The resulting “devolution deals” have been made with individual local authorities such as Cornwall, and with groups of local authorities, such as the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. </p>
<p>The powers on offer still fall well short of those available in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Furthermore, some of the proposals are highly controversial, with critics regarding them as detrimental to local government, rather than an enhancement to it. Nonetheless, it is conceivable that a new progression towards more expansive English devolution could take hold. In such a circumstance, London’s new mayor will want to press for more powers to be placed at their disposal. Otherwise, the city risks missing out on powers in areas such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/health-devolution-deal-is-a-key-moment-for-manchester-and-england-57152">health and social care</a>, as they become available to other authorities in England. </p>
<p>If we follow this process far enough into the future, we could see regions and nations covering the whole of the UK with extensive autonomy, with authorities possessing primary law-making and wide tax-raising powers. Admittedly, we are some way from such an outcome, and may never reach it. But if we do, then the UK will have come more clearly to resemble a federation, in which a series of “states” rest below a single “federal”, UK tier of governance. </p>
<p>London could participate at the level of the UK parliament, alongside the other nations and regions of the UK. It could be a fully-blown city state. To be directly elected mayor of such an entity would then be a great political prize indeed.</p>
<p><em>Andrew Blick launches <a href="http://fedtrust.co.uk/events/forthcoming-events/12-may-federalism-the-uks-future/">his new pamphlet</a> on the possibility of a federal UK on 12 May in Westminster.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blick was an expert adviser to the Inquiry into Better Devolution for the Whole UK; and is Senior Research Fellow, Federal Trust. The views expressed here are his own.</span></em></p>Everywhere else in the UK is getting more devolved powers – so why not the nation’s capital?Andrew Blick, Lecturer in Politics and Contemporary History, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/588292016-05-04T14:47:06Z2016-05-04T14:47:06ZGender balance is back on the agenda but can women get elected in 2016?<p>UK voters are heading to the polls to vote in an unprecedented number of elections outside a general election year. Chief among these are the devolved elections in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London. And since the establishment of these regional bodies between 1998 and 2000, gender equality has been <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/women-representation-westminster-stirbu/">a key theme</a>.</p>
<p>The road towards a gender balanced House of Commons has been a long and slow one, but devolved parliaments were an opportunity for a fresh start for female representation in British politics. The <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP12-43.pdf">first London Assembly in 2000 comprised 48% women</a>, and in 2003 the Welsh Assembly became the first national elected body in the world to achieve <a href="http://www.clickonwales.org/2016/03/how-feminist-is-the-welsh-assembly/">gender parity among its members</a>. The Scottish Parliament also saw close to 40% women in Holyrood in 2003. </p>
<p>These early successes proved to be a high water mark, however, and since 2003 the number of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/mar/15/women-in-scottish-welsh-parliaments">women elected to the devolved bodies has either stalled or fallen</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fig.1: Proportion of female representatives over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Cullinane</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, in 2016, as revealed by our research for the <a href="http://democraticdashboard.com/">LSE’s Democratic Dashboard</a>, the proportion of female candidates standing for election <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Gender-and-the-2016-Elections-Data-Briefing.pdf">has risen substantially</a> in all four jurisdictions, ranging from four percentage points in Wales to more than ten percentage points in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In the case of Wales and London, increases largely compensate for past falls, however the proportion of female candidates have reached all time highs in the Scottish Parliament and Northern Ireland Assembly elections.</p>
<p>In Northern Ireland, the number of women running has in fact doubled from 38 to 76 since 2011. This jump is particularly significant, as the proportion of female candidates running for Stormont has been both historically low in comparison to other elected bodies in the UK, and also stagnant, hovering between 17 and 19%. And the Northern Ireland Assembly <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-assembly-urged-to-end-gender-imbalance-31053610.html">has been described</a> as “one of the most unequal legislatures in Western Europe”. </p>
<p>This year’s increase to over 27% marks a significant juncture for female political participation in the province. Research has identified the increasing <a href="http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/knowledge_exchange/briefing_papers/series5/matthews-briefing.pdf">centralisation of the candidate selection process</a> as a source of progress, as the previous dominance of the grassroots in candidate selection had traditionally disadvantaged women. While Sinn Féin remains the only party to employ formal gender balance mechanisms, more women are running in 2016 in parties across the political spectrum.</p>
<p>Likewise, Scotland has seen significant progress in terms of female candidate selection, with several major parties, most notably Labour and the SNP, employing all women shortlists, along with “zipping” tactics – where men and women are alternated on party lists – to balance the regional lists. Placement in party list is a crucial issue, and <a href="https://genderpoliticsatedinburgh.wordpress.com/gender-and-candidate-selection-2016/">Labour and the SNP have achieved balance</a> (or very close to it) in their top three candidates in each region.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fig. 2: Proportion of female candidates, 2011-2016 (London Assembly 2012-2016)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Cullinane</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Translating into gains</h2>
<p>However, indications are that the increase in female candidates may not translate into equivalent increases in women elected. In London and Wales the number of women elected is likely to be either stagnant, or increase by a very small amount. In Wales, the Electoral Reform Society Cymru recently published an in-depth exploration of the picture for the Welsh Assembly, and found that while all women shortlists and zipping are used – in particular by the Labour Party – women are significantly more likely than men <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/sites/default/files/files/publication/Women-in-the-National-Assembly-of-Wales.pdf">to be defending “marginal” seats</a>. Of the 11 battleground constituencies, ten are being defended by women.</p>
<p>This picture is to an extent repeated elsewhere. There are two main mechanisms where more female candidates may not translate into more seats. One is intra-party competition, where women are selected to contest seats, or are allocated list positions, that are less likely to result in victory. </p>
<p>The second is inter-party variation in the proportion of women selected. There are drastic differences in gender balance between parties, with Labour, the SNP, the Greens and the Lib Dems achieving significant advances towards parity in the jurisdictions where they field candidates, while the Conservatives, UKIP and the DUP lag substantially behind, due to a lack of willingness to adopt the often internally unpopular all women shortlists and other such policies. Much of the increase in female candidates in 2016 is being driven by smaller parties less likely to win seats, in particular the Greens, the Women’s Equality party, along with RISE and Solidarity in Scotland.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fig. 3: Gender balance between parties in 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Cullinane</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nonetheless, it is clear that gender balance is back on the agenda in these devolved elections. Northern Ireland stands on the cusp of change for female representation in Stormont, while Scotland could well bear out the <a href="http://www.democraticauditscotland.com/has-the-tide-turned-for-womens-representation-in-scotland/">prediction that the tide has turned for women</a> in politics there, led by women at the forefront of party leadership in Holyrood. Though the mixed electoral systems across the devolved nations make it very hard to predict, the prospects for women in Wales and London will likely to come down to fine margins. Regardless, this year is likely to see a step forward, even if a modest one, and, as the years since 2003 have shown, this isn’t something to take for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Cullinane receives funding from LSE HEIF5 Innovation Fund, Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, and Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils or other public funders.</span></em></p>More candidates mean a change in politics, but it’s not as easy as creating policies such as all women shortlists.Carl Cullinane, Research Manager for Democratic Audit, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/586232016-05-03T14:07:34Z2016-05-03T14:07:34ZLondon’s recycling crisis – and how the next mayor can fix it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120992/original/image-20160503-19557-dxv2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maybe Sesame Street could help out City Hall.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/clurr/376444203/">claire rowland</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>All the candidates for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/london-mayor-2016">2016 London mayoral elections</a> have talked about their ideas for dealing with the housing crisis, air pollution, congestion, terrorism and extremism. But what has often been forgotten about in the media coverage is that London also has a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/local-government-network/2013/nov/27/boris-johnson-london-waste-crisis-recycling-rates">waste crisis</a>.</p>
<p>The capital is the worst performing region in England when it comes to <a href="http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/household-waste-recycling-rates-borough">household recycling</a>. (Waste policy for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is devolved.) In 2015, the recycling rate in England as a whole was 44% – London was the only region with a rate below 40%. Out of 33 boroughs, 25 have household recycling rates between 20% and 40%.</p>
<p>This means that, as far as the capital’s waste is concerned, more is sent to landfill or is incinerated, compared to other English regions.</p>
<p>There is no obvious reason why London should be doing particular badly compared to the rest of the country. Certainly there are reasons that are not specific to London but this can be put down to the differences between the household collection services offered by different local councils. </p>
<p>It is often perceived that housing density and income levels are the main influences on whether people recycle. It is more difficult to provide individual household collection services for people in flats, who may have to take their waste to a communal collection point. Those with a higher income are able to buy more, so may have more to throw away as a result. </p>
<p>However, in a <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/Recycling%20Rates%20Final%20Report.pdf">review of research by the Greater London Authority (GLA)</a>, it was found that there is a clear correlation between deprivation in an area and lower recycling rates. Local councils may receive less in council tax from those in deprived areas and, <a href="http://londonist.com/2015/05/why-is-london-rubbish-at-recycling">with public funding cuts</a>, there is less money to spend on other council services. </p>
<p>The GLA study shows that even deprivation does not have to be a barrier, if there is local political leadership and better negotiation of contracts with waste management companies. Contracts have been criticised as <a href="http://londonist.com/2015/05/why-is-london-rubbish-at-recycling">incentivising</a> landfill and incineration over recycling. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121002/original/image-20160503-19554-ge4d6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some councils, like this one, ask for all recyclable goods in the same bin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alanstanton/6827525266/">Alan Stanton</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Councils are required to provide a waste and recycling collections service. However, this comes in many forms, and <a href="https://www.academia.edu/22946941/Law_as_a_Regulator_Steering_Waste_Management_by_Steering_Itself_through_its_Relationship_with_the_Environment">my own research</a> has found the general consensus is that the type of recycling collection – unsorted (or “co-mingled”) or sorted by households into different bins – does have an impact. Co-mingled collections are more convenient for households but the risk of contamination and rejection by recycling processing companies is higher. On top of that, since local authorities can use many different waste collection companies, it isn’t always clear what actually counts as recyclable.</p>
<p>It also depends on whether councils <a href="https://theconversation.com/bingate-how-rubbish-can-lose-votes-and-alienate-people-58254">offer rewards to motivate households or penalise households with fines</a> for not disposing of waste properly. As Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler famously <a href="http://nudges.org/">pointed out</a>, decisions taken by local authorities can shape the environment that “nudges” human behaviour. </p>
<h2>London needs common recycling standards</h2>
<p>Two of the main mayoral candidates, <a href="https://backzac2016.com/policy">Zac Goldsmith</a> (Conservative) and <a href="http://www.sianberry.london/the-power-of-good-ideas/manifesto-for-london/">Sian Berry</a> (Green) have suggested working with local councils to develop a consistent or common minimum approach for recycling collection. </p>
<p>There is potentially already a mechanism to do this through the <a href="http://www.lwarb.gov.uk/">London Waste and Recycling Board</a>, but this body does not have the power to set rules. Its funding comes from the government and the Greater London Assembly. Until 2010, it was chaired by Boris Johnson directly but since then he has been represented by an assembly member, and the current chair steps down this month. This means it is still up to local authorities to decide how to collect waste and they have <a href="http://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/node/23729">resisted the idea</a> of a single, London waste authority in the past. </p>
<p>It is perhaps for this reason that <a href="http://www.sadiq.london/a_greener_cleaner_london">Sadiq Khan</a> (Labour) does not think that a common standard for London is <a href="http://www.letsrecycle.com/news/latest-news/khan-pledges-to-reinvigorate-londons-recycling/">realistic</a>. Khan does not elucidate anything more than a vague recognition of the need to meet European Union targets. <a href="http://www.londonlibdems.org.uk/a_greener_london">Caroline Pidgeon</a>, the Liberal Democrat candidate, wants to work with councils to set tougher targets. However, without further lawmaking powers, it isn’t clear how such non-binding targets would help, however tough they are.</p>
<p>Yet if Goldsmith or Berry were to be elected they would have a democratic mandate for change, and would find themselves working with a Defra minister in Rory Stewart who is <a href="http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2436111/rory-stewart-pledges-to-tackle-uks-crazy-recycling-systems">sympathetic</a> to the idea of a unified waste policy. A solution for London’s recycling crisis may be possible – but don’t get your hopes up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pravin Jeyaraj does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The British capital is more wasteful than anywhere else in England.Pravin Jeyaraj, Fellow, Law and Theory Lab, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/586222016-04-29T15:06:09Z2016-04-29T15:06:09ZTen academics tell you everything you need to know about the May elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120692/original/image-20160429-10500-1ysi2zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been just one year since Britain’s general election, but all around the UK, people are preparing to go to the polls once more. Mayors will be chosen, councils will be formed and Scotland and Wales will elect new parliaments. </p>
<p>Such elections can be marred by low turnouts – and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/depleted-local-media-threatens-ability-to-hold-those-in-power-to-account-58322">diminished offering from local media</a> isn’t helping. If you’re lacking a motive to vote, let these experts convert you to the democratic cause with their valuable insights, specialist knowledge and sharp (sometimes even scathing) analysis.</p>
<p>Here you’ll find smart summaries of all the key election issues, written by the UK’s brightest minds. </p>
<h2>Why should you care?</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120698/original/image-20160429-10500-19p73dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120698/original/image-20160429-10500-19p73dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120698/original/image-20160429-10500-19p73dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120698/original/image-20160429-10500-19p73dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120698/original/image-20160429-10500-19p73dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120698/original/image-20160429-10500-19p73dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120698/original/image-20160429-10500-19p73dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Get there.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Turner Photography/Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>These polls have been somewhat overshadowed by the hue and cry over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/eu-referendum-2016">EU referendum</a>, but they’re still pretty important. Alistair Clark (Newcastle University) <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-local-elections-58263">explains what’s at stake</a> during England’s local elections; there are more than 2,700 seats up for grabs, for starters. </p>
<h2>Your report from the north</h2>
<p>In Scotland, the election seems a foregone conclusion: the SNP is expected to dominate. But if you think that’s all there is to say about it, you’re dead wrong – according to politics and policy expert Paul Cairney (Stirling), there are at least <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-six-things-you-need-to-know-57993">six things you should know</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120694/original/image-20160429-10493-17ednkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120694/original/image-20160429-10493-17ednkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120694/original/image-20160429-10493-17ednkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120694/original/image-20160429-10493-17ednkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120694/original/image-20160429-10493-17ednkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120694/original/image-20160429-10493-17ednkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120694/original/image-20160429-10493-17ednkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bonnie Scotland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/24354425@N03/15134270922/sizes/l">sjrankin/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>And with an impending SNP victory at hand, many are wondering whether the possibility of Scottish independence will increase again – especially with the EU referendum looming. Would a Brexit break Britain? Michael Keating (Aberdeen) <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-or-out-of-the-eu-britain-faces-more-scottish-upheaval-58606">talks us through</a> the likely scenarios. </p>
<h2>And what about Wales?</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, Stephen Cushion and Roger Scully (Cardiff University) use four graphs to show that <a href="https://theconversation.com/british-media-is-failing-to-give-voters-the-full-picture-ahead-of-elections-57020">Wales is woefully neglected</a> by the national media. </p>
<p>Labour looks set to win the lion’s share of Senedd seats. But the race for second place is heating up, with a surprise last-minute entry: UKIP. Jac Larner (Cardiff Universtiy) explains how the Welsh electoral system will give it a chance to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-welsh-voting-system-could-secure-nine-assembly-seats-for-ukip-55185">turn local support into seats</a>.</p>
<h2>The march of the mayors</h2>
<p>Voters in London, Salford, Liverpool and Bristol will be asked which candidate they want to be mayor of their cities. If you’re somewhat stymied about the point of elected mayors, you’re not alone: Peter Wynne Rees (UCL) is convinced that London would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/does-london-really-need-an-elected-mayor-58533">better off without one</a>. </p>
<p>Fortunately, Paula Keaveney (Edge Hill University) <a href="https://theconversation.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-mayoral-elections-58319">can explain</a> what mayors do, why we have them and – perhaps most importantly – how to vote for them. </p>
<p>Expect more mayoral elections next year, as George Osborne’s city devolution deals take effect. But in some ways, the role is old news – as John Godwin (University of Bristol) points out, <a href="https://theconversation.com/echoes-of-the-distant-past-in-englands-modern-battles-to-be-mayor-57767">it’s been 900 years</a> since England’s first mayor was appointed. </p>
<h2>The low-down from London town</h2>
<p>Finally, for those in the country’s capital, we’ve got you covered. If you only read one article about the London mayoral elections, make it Tom Quinn’s (University of Essex) <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-the-main-contenders-for-london-mayor-and-what-do-they-stand-for-57391">no-nonsense introduction</a> to the two main candidates. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120696/original/image-20160429-10474-18wuaul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120696/original/image-20160429-10474-18wuaul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120696/original/image-20160429-10474-18wuaul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120696/original/image-20160429-10474-18wuaul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120696/original/image-20160429-10474-18wuaul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120696/original/image-20160429-10474-18wuaul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120696/original/image-20160429-10474-18wuaul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Be enlightened.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Our experts have also picked apart the key contenders’ pledges on <a href="https://theconversation.com/public-transport-is-part-of-the-london-mayors-raison-detre-but-both-main-candidates-fail-to-impress-58390">public transport</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-london-mayoral-candidate-does-most-to-make-cycling-mainstream-58001">cycling</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-heathrow-problem-and-how-london-mayoral-candidates-can-handle-it-58008">airports</a>. Oh, and Michael Carmona (UCL) has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/unlocking-small-spaces-could-be-the-key-to-solving-londons-housing-crisis-57392">solution to the housing crisis</a>. </p>
<p><em>For the latest updates about the elections, make sure you follow us on <a href="https://twitter.com/ConversationUK">Twitter</a>. If you have any feedback about our coverage, please feel free to post it in the comments.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Scotland and Wales are getting new parliaments, major cities are electing their mayors and there are over 2,700 local seats up for grabs.Emily Lindsay Brown, Editor for Cities and Young People, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/585332016-04-29T12:55:07Z2016-04-29T12:55:07ZDoes London really need an elected mayor?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120391/original/image-20160427-30973-1xfeup7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>London has experienced 16 years of elected mayoralty, and soon a third incumbent (or encumbrance) will be elected to this office. So, what are elected mayors good for? </p>
<p>You’d be forgiven for thinking that their main power lies in needlessly reinventing existing public transport infrastructure: Ken Livingstone liked his buses continental and bendy, while Boris Johnson prefers them with a hint of nostalgia. The last of Livingstone’s road-blockers <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/bendy-buses-sent-from-london-to-malta-taken-off-their-roads-after-three-burst-into-flames-8788929.html">immolated themselves</a> under Maltese sunshine, while Johnson’s are being <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/davehillblog/2016/feb/03/london-mayor-cut-price-deal-could-signal-end-of-boris-bus">quietly supplanted</a> with a more practical hybrid lookalike. Both projects carry the stamp of mayoral ego, and have rather less to do with the position’s actual remit: the necessary improvement of public services. </p>
<p>Indeed, vanity projects, with their high profile and short lead time, seem to fascinate elected mayors. The <a href="https://londonist.com/2015/12/cable-car-still-has-no-regular-users">underused cable cars</a> of the Emirates Air Line frame the Thames like the fairy lights from yesterday’s party, providing a prelude to other high visibility, low utility, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/thank-goodness-the-garden-bridge-is-metaphorically-collapsing-lets-now-build-a-bridge-east-london-a6699981.html">cross-river projects</a> to come. It’s as if someone were trying to divert attention from the crucial issues which need to be addressed, in order to safeguard London’s future as a world city. </p>
<p>Providing affordable and well-located homes for the bright 20-somethings that put this metropolis at the cutting edge of global creativity and keep the nighttime economy burning brightly seem to <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bb707cf8-df10-11e5-b67f-a61732c1d025.html#axzz472Rb0JfG">fall far down</a> the mayoral agenda. Instead, the development industry has charmed both previous post holders into approving the construction of luxury tower blocks, which act as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/dec/26/londoners-miss-out-as-foreign-investors-buy-up-home-sites">safe-deposit boxes</a> for the world’s uber rich. </p>
<p>Ever since it ceased to be a “square mile”, London has had difficulty finding a suitable mechanism of governance. The <a href="http://www.20thcenturylondon.org.uk/london-county-council-l-c-c">London County Council</a> boundary, which was in place from 1889 to 1965, probably encompassed the most coherent urban metropolis to represent a governable capital city. </p>
<p>In 1965, having achieved an enviable reputation for the provision of affordable housing and public transport, it gave birth to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-35716693">Greater London Council</a> or the GLC. This bloated creation was too large to be a city and too small to be a region – an uneasy combination of urban metropolis and sprawling suburban hinterland, girdled by a green belt. </p>
<h2>The rise of ‘Red Ken’</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120394/original/image-20160427-30967-6lhx3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120394/original/image-20160427-30967-6lhx3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120394/original/image-20160427-30967-6lhx3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120394/original/image-20160427-30967-6lhx3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120394/original/image-20160427-30967-6lhx3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120394/original/image-20160427-30967-6lhx3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120394/original/image-20160427-30967-6lhx3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ken Livingstone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/brisbanecitycouncil/11199082744/sizes/l">Brisbane City Council/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>In spite of this handicap, the GLC managed to continue the good practice of its predecessor in the fields of strategic planning and public housing, until the early 1980s. Then, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-margaret-thatcher-invented-the-modern-british-election-campaign-39885">under the Thatcher government</a>, it discovered personality politics. Livingstone was crowned head of the GLC by a victorious Labour party following the 1981 elections. </p>
<p>Livingstone tasked the organisation with disrupting the Conservative government from office, and thereby signed the GLC’s death warrant. The inevitable threat to national power posed by a Greater London leader had been demonstrated, and Thatcher <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-35716693">made it her mission</a> to disband the council. </p>
<p>The GLC’s eventual demise in 1986 was followed by one of the most creative and successful periods of London’s governance. The capital was run by the 33 municipalities via collaborative boards, such as the London Planning Advisory Committee. Personality politics disappeared and activity was focused, through consensus, on key strategic planning issues such as London’s role as a “world city”, and the location of tall buildings. </p>
<p>Civic collaboration saw off the extremes of left and right wing politics, and the stultifying conflicts which had marked the previous decade. This interlude of harmony witnessed the creation of the strategic policies which formed the basis of <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/the_london_plan_2004.pdf">the London Plan</a>, first published under Livingstone – a comprehensive masterplan for the city’s future, covering everything from tourism, to travel, to tackling climate change. These were the essential ingredients for the subsequent strategies, which have been rebranded by the elected mayors. </p>
<h2>Making a mayor</h2>
<p>In spite of the unexpected success and stability enjoyed during this period of “strategic governance by consensus”, Tony Blair couldn’t resist the temptation to reimpose a formal structure when he came to power. In 1998, Blair put it to the people of London that they should be governed by a new “slim-line” Greater London Authority, and an elected mayor, in <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_report/1998/london_referendum/89327.stm">a referendum</a>. The vast majority (72%) of a small turnout (34%) <a href="http://www.politics.co.uk/reference/mayor-of-london">agreed</a>. </p>
<p>When it came to the first mayoral election in 2000, the PM should not have been surprised when his preferred candidate for the role – Frank Dobson – <a href="http://www.londonelects.org.uk/download/file/fid/176">was supplanted</a> by the familiar figure of Livingstone, who ran as an independent candidate against the wishes of his party (and was <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/699204.stm">expelled for it</a>). Personality politics – and government by conflict – were back. </p>
<p>London’s elected mayors control a budget of <a href="https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/what-mayor-london-and-london-assembly-do">around £17 billion</a> – a small sum, relative to total public expenditure across the capital. However, when it comes to development projects and London’s skyline, they hold enormous power through their role in the planning system. Whereas borough councils debate development applications at planning committees of up to 30 elected councillors, the City Hall development control committee has one member only. This places the mayor in a vulnerable position, exposed to pro-development pressure and perhaps even <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35784880">compromising planning procedures</a>. </p>
<p>It is no coincidence that more than <a href="http://newlondonarchitecture.org/news/2016/march-2016/survey-reveals-more-tall-buildings">400 high-rise developments</a> have been approved – or <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3483571/The-future-London-capital-s-skyline-transformed-400-high-rise-towers-set-built.html">are likely to be</a> – under the supervision of the two elected mayors so far. Developers now have an easy ride through a planning system that has been continually degraded, first by Livingstone and John Prescott (as Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions), and latterly by Johnson and Eric Pickles (as Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government) – although it may well have been the Treasury that was really pulling the strings.</p>
<p>In the face of all these shortcomings, I had begun to believe that elected mayors held no attraction for London, until I saw the pictures of Johnson suspended, stationary, on a zip-wire over Victoria Park. It was then that I was forced to admit that they do, at least, make wonderful Christmas decorations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Wynne Rees is affiliated with University College London (Professor); British Council for Offices (Director); Architecture Foundation (Trustee); Council for Tall Buildings & Urban Habitat (London Chapter Board Member). Formerly City Planning Officer for the City of London (1985-2014). This article does not reflect the views of the research councils, or any of the organisations mentioned here. </span></em></p>There’s an argument to be made for the old way of doing things.Peter Wynne Rees, Professor of Places and City Planning, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/585972016-04-29T12:00:59Z2016-04-29T12:00:59ZHow London’s next mayor could fix air pollution – and save lives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120516/original/image-20160428-28029-89ydfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Bures / Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each year, <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/HIAinLondon_KingsReport_14072015_final_0.pdf">nearly 9,500 people die</a> due to London’s air pollution. It’s one of the biggest challenges for the capital’s next mayor – literally a matter of life and death.</p>
<p>The problem has been around for decades. In fact, this year marks the 60th anniversary of the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Eliz2/4-5/52/enacted">Clean Air Act 1956</a>, passed by parliament in response to London’s Great Smog of December 1952. London was well known for its “pea-souper” fogs, but when the “Great Smog” fell over the city the effects were unprecedented: <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/great-smog">4,000 immediate deaths</a> with a further 8,000 dying in the following weeks and months.</p>
<p>The act aimed to control domestic sources of smoke pollution by introducing smokeless zones. In these areas, coal had to be ditched in favour of smokeless alternatives such as coke or charcoal, power stations were moved to rural areas and tall chimneys were built for industry to disperse pollutant at height.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120517/original/image-20160428-28053-2bhrr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal-burning Battersea Power Plant only closed in the 1980s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eric2x/shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Air pollution in London is very different today, and yet the same health issues exist. Gone are the polluting factories and the coal burning and in its place are a newer breed of contaminants. One of the primary causes is the old favourite, the combustion engine. Diesel exhausts include carbon monoxide, nitrous oxides, and microscopic specs of “particulate matter”, the smaller fractions of which penetrate the deep lung and pass across into the blood stream. </p>
<p>All of the above are seriously bad for your health. Air pollution has been linked to cancer, asthma, stroke and heart disease, diabetes, obesity, and even <a href="http://grist.org/climate-energy/meet-the-scientist-connecting-the-dots-between-air-pollution-and-dementia/">dementia</a>. The damage begins during a baby’s first weeks in the womb and continues <a href="https://www.rcplondon.ac.uk/projects/outputs/every-breath-we-take-lifelong-impact-air-pollution">across an entire lifetime</a> through to old age. Consequently, any air quality improvements made now will have long-lasting benefits.</p>
<h2>Air pollution picks on the weak and needy</h2>
<p>The effects aren’t distributed evenly, or randomly. Older people and adults with long-term conditions are <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/environment/pollution-and-air-quality/air-quality-and-health">particularly vulnerable</a>, for instance, and improving air quality will help them to stay independent and well, easing the pressure on NHS and social services.</p>
<p>Children are also particularly <a href="http://www.who.int/ceh/risks/cehair/en/">at risk</a>, as their lungs are still developing. We know <a href="https://www.asthma.org.uk/advice/triggers/pollution/">traffic-related air pollution causes asthma</a> so, given London has more than a thousand schools close to busy roads it’s perhaps no surprise a recent poll found parents in the capital now see air pollution as the <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-parents-see-toxic-air-as-the-biggest-health-threat-to-their-children-a3208221.html">biggest health threat</a>.</p>
<p>It’s a social issue too, as pollution exacerbates inequality. Research shows exposure varies a great deal from place to place even within the city, and London’s low income households <a href="http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/low-income-households-are-more-likely-to-suffer-from-poor-indoor-air-quality/#.VyHybzYrK-l">tend to be in more polluted areas</a> while wealthier people live on leafy side streets.</p>
<h2>What the next mayor can do about it</h2>
<p>The capital’s next mayor will have the power to make dramatic improvements to London residents’ health. Looking over the manifestos of front runners Sadiq Khan (Labour) and Zac Goldsmith (Conservative), as well as Sian Berry (Green) and Caroline Pidgeon (Liberal Democrat), it’s clear there’s a lot of <a href="http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/media-centre/blogs/category/item/at-a-glance-how-do-the-mayoral-candidates-air-pollution-proposals-stack-up">agreement</a>. </p>
<p>Where they differ is in their methods of dealing with these important issues and the timing of their interventions. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120537/original/image-20160428-28029-fwra4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Driving in central London costs £11.50 a day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/30998987@N03/8431816810/">mariordo59</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Greens would bring in a <a href="https://london.greenparty.org.uk/elections/london-green-party-manifesto-2016.html">smart road-charging system</a>, while the Lib Dems would <a href="http://www.londonlibdems.org.uk/ban_diesels">ban diesel vehicles</a> within the city centre by 2024. Goldsmith wants to <a>retrofit all existing buses</a> by 2020, while Berry wants to move the entire bus fleet to hybrid/electric by that year.</p>
<p>Air pollution isn’t solely caused by transport, of course. Gas burning, often from domestic boilers, also <a href="http://www.cleanerairforlondon.org.uk/londons-air/air-pollution-london">adds to the problem</a> and all candidates have ideas for reducing boiler emissions or boosting energy efficiency – Khan wants further investment in older homes, for instance. Goldsmith’s pledge that all <a href="http://www.planningresource.co.uk/article/1379828/goldsmith-would-keep-zero-carbon-homes-programme">new homes will meet the zero carbon standard</a> would actually revive a policy the current national government <a href="http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2417282/government-demolishes-zero-carbon-goal-for-new-homes">has scrapped</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, you have to ask, are all these policies realistic? Will they be followed through? While air quality is only one of many issues in this election, it is an extremely important one. Five decades on from the Great Smog, we need another clean air revolution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive Shrubsole is a Research Associate at UCL. He receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant EP/I02929X/1. He is affiliated with the United Kingdom Indoor Environments Group (UKIEG), is Associate Editor of 'Indoor and Built Environment' a peer-reveiwed research journal is a member of the Green Party.</span></em></p>The main mayoral candidates agree air quality is a huge issue, but disagree on policies.Clive Shrubsole, Research Associate, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/583902016-04-29T08:54:28Z2016-04-29T08:54:28ZPublic transport is part of the London mayor’s raison d'être – but both main candidates fail to impress<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120529/original/image-20160428-28044-1kxmwol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each week, the equivalent of <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/tube-improvements/the-future-of-the-tube">two busy tube carriages</a> of people move to London. As London’s population grows, so does the strain on its public transport system. On May 5, the <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/sadiq-khan-leads-20-london-mayoral-race/">polls predict</a> that London will elect either Labour’s Sadiq Khan or the Conservative’s Zac Goldsmith as the next mayor – and in doing so, endorse the winner’s vision for the capital’s public transport network.</p>
<p>Transport is the area that the mayor has the most say over – indeed, two thirds of the mayor’s annual budget goes towards it (<a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/how-we-work/how-we-are-funded">£11.5bn</a> in 2015/16). But even with such significant powers to play for, both of the key mayoral candidates have largely failed to come up with a visionary, coherent plan to cope with the capital’s major transport issues. </p>
<h2>Freezing fares</h2>
<p>Sadiq Khan’s <a href="http://www.sadiq.london/a_modern_and_affordable_transport_network">headline pledge</a> to freeze public transport fares at 2016 prices for the whole of the mayor’s four-year term is an eye-catching policy (they currently increase <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/how-we-work/how-we-are-funded">in line with inflation</a>, plus 1%). It’s aimed at reducing the transport cost burden for low-income families. Khan estimates the policy’s price tag at £450m for the term – much less than the Transport for London (TfL) estimate of <a href="http://www.london.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/b13740/Minutes%20-%20Appendix%201%20-%20Transcript%20Transport%20for%20London%20Wednesday%2010-Feb-2016%2010.00%20London%20Assemb.pdf?T=9">£1.5bn</a>. Khan also proposes to overhaul the bus fare structure: A one-hour bus pass – unlimited bus trips for an hour instead of paying for each bus separately. </p>
<p>He proposes to pay for it by finding efficiencies within TfL, and reducing the use of consultants and contractors. He would also lease TfL land for development, have TfL bid to run services outside London and sell TfL’s expertise – much like London Transport International, transport consultancy trading arm of TfL’s predecessor, which advised metros around the world from the <a href="http://content.tfl.gov.uk/research-guide-no-10-development-of-organised-transportation-in-london.pdf">mid-1970s to mid-1990s</a>. </p>
<p>It <a href="http://www.london.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/b13740/Minutes%20-%20Appendix%201%20-%20Transcript%20Transport%20for%20London%20Wednesday%2010-Feb-2016%2010.00%20London%20Assemb.pdf?T=9">will be difficult</a> for TfL to absorb the fare freeze cost just by being thrifty, because any efficiencies are already earmarked to bridge the national government’s <a href="http://www.london.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/b13740/Minutes%20-%20Appendix%201%20-%20Transcript%20Transport%20for%20London%20Wednesday%2010-Feb-2016%2010.00%20London%20Assemb.pdf?T=9">£2.8bn cut</a> to TfL’s grants, for the period up to 2020. Any failure to bridge these budget gaps with money-saving measures will mean raising fares, scaling back programmes or striking projects altogether. </p>
<p>Offering concessionary fares to those who struggle to pay for public transport could be a more targeted intervention, without such a high price tag. </p>
<h2>Train take-over</h2>
<p>Both candidates are calling for TfL to take over management of the railways in London. They want to replicate <a href="http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/sites/default/files/research-files/Going%2520Local%2520web_2.pdf">the success</a> of the London Overground; the orbital network created between 2007 and 2012, after TfL took over underused railway routes. The model, which promises more frequent services, greater connectivity and safer, cleaner stations is popular. Last year the <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/devolving_rail_services_to_london-final-report.pdf">Greater London Assembly</a> called for the Overground model to be adopted across South London. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120590/original/image-20160428-28209-1xh0xrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120590/original/image-20160428-28209-1xh0xrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120590/original/image-20160428-28209-1xh0xrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120590/original/image-20160428-28209-1xh0xrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120590/original/image-20160428-28209-1xh0xrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120590/original/image-20160428-28209-1xh0xrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120590/original/image-20160428-28209-1xh0xrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Great success.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK government’s Department for Transport (DfT) holds the keys to greater rail devolution. Only it can transfer responsibility for managing the routes to TfL. A recent <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/493754/dft-tfl-rail-prospectus.pdf">joint DfT and TfL publication</a> suggests a move to more TfL involvement in managing London rail services. In theory, Transport for London could adopt the first South London routes in 2018, as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/478018/nov-2015-rail-franchise-schedule.pdf">franchises expire</a>.</p>
<p>But the success of the London Overground orbital hinged on large scale capital investment. There has been little to no discussion of how these levels of investment might be secured for the south London venture – undermining its potential to be a success from the the outset.</p>
<h2>Crossrail 2</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120203/original/image-20160426-1327-5fuozz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120203/original/image-20160426-1327-5fuozz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120203/original/image-20160426-1327-5fuozz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120203/original/image-20160426-1327-5fuozz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120203/original/image-20160426-1327-5fuozz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1075&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120203/original/image-20160426-1327-5fuozz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1075&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120203/original/image-20160426-1327-5fuozz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1075&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed route for Crossrail 2, as of autumn 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tflpress/21543524163/">Transport for London</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both Khan and Goldsmith have also pledged to work with government to build <a href="http://crossrail2.co.uk/why-crossrail-2/">Crossrail 2</a> – a rail link running through the centre of London from the South West to the North East. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/transport-for-a-world-city-a-national-infrastructure-commission-report">National Infrastructure Commission</a> recently concluded that without it, London “would grind to a halt”. The project is already being jointly developed by TfL and Network Rail. The government just has committed <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/080d2e62-ea01-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8">£80m of funding</a> towards planning the project. There is widespread support for Crossrail 2 in principle from stakeholders, in particular the <a href="http://londonfirst.co.uk/our-focus/londons-transport-infrastructure/crossrail-2/">business community</a> and <a href="https://consultations.tfl.gov.uk/crossrail/june-2014">the public</a>. </p>
<p>It’s estimated to cost between <a href="http://crossrail2.co.uk/funding/">£27bn and £32bn</a> – double the cost of the first Crossrail project. Neither of the candidates have put forward a coherent plan for funding. </p>
<h2>Serving the south</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=810&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120204/original/image-20160426-1339-yv3hzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed Bakerloo line extension.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tflpress/15389199511/sizes/l">Transport for London</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Khan also promises to secure funding for the Bakerloo tube line extension to south London. TfL are already developing a technically detailed case, after it found that <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2015/december/bakerloo-line-extension-to-improve-transport-links-in-south-london-by-2030">96% of Londoners</a> supported further extension southwards from the current terminus at Elephant and Castle.</p>
<p>Goldsmith promises to start planning the extension, but will prioritise new trains and signalling across the network in the shorter term. But he does commit to extending the tram in south London (Khan considers this a project for the longer-term). TfL has already committed <a href="http://www.london.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/b13740/Minutes%20-%20Appendix%201%20-%20Transcript%20Transport%20for%20London%20Wednesday%2010-Feb-2016%2010.00%20London%20Assemb.pdf?T=9">£100m</a>, but the project has been stalled as contributions of <a href="http://www.london.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/b13740/Minutes%20-%20Appendix%201%20-%20Transcript%20Transport%20for%20London%20Wednesday%2010-Feb-2016%2010.00%20London%20Assemb.pdf?T=9">£200m</a> from the local borough have not yet been secured. Goldsmith does not say whether he would push forward without local contributions. </p>
<h2>Night tube</h2>
<p>London was to get its first <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2014/september/-historic-new-night-tube-service">all-night weekend tube</a> services in <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/news-articles/night-tube-launch-deferred">September 2015</a>. This failed following <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2015/august/lu-decides-to-defer-launch-of-night-tube-to-allow-successful-conclusion-of-union-talks">disputes between unions and management</a>, which led to strikes. A new start date has not been set, but both candidates have committed to delivering the night tube. Khan pledges to work with the unions, while Goldsmith takes a harder line, saying he’ll clamp down on the unions’ ability to strike if necessary. </p>
<p>Goldsmith’s manifesto proposes to expand the transport services on weekend nights to include the London Overground in 2017 and the Docklands Light Railway by 2021. But – you guessed it – <a href="http://content.tfl.gov.uk/fit-for-the-future.pdf">TfL has already outlined </a> that it seeks to extend the night tube to the Circle, Hammersmith and City, District and Metropolitan line once the modernisation programme is complete. London Overground and the DLR are also set to have night time services at weekends in <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/tube-improvements/the-future-of-the-tube/night-tube">2017 and 2021 respectively</a>. </p>
<p>It’s clear that both candidates are playing it safe by taking their lead from TfL. They are both promising to progress popular investment projects, which are already in the works. Neither has outlined a coherent plan on how to meet growing pressure on the network and finances. Without such a strategy, TfL grant cuts will translate into fare rises, service cuts and deteriorating infrastructure. The hollow rhetoric of efficiency and portfolio development falls short of offering a plan to “keep London moving”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>For her doctoral research at UCL Nicole receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council via the research programme Transforming the Engineering of Cities. Nicole works on the MacArthur funded research project New Urban Governance looking at transport governance in different cities across the world. This project is hosted at the urban research centre LSE Cities at the London School of Economics. Nicole is also currently supporting the project CREATE, which is looking at the evolution of sustainable transport policies in cities. CREATE is funded by the EU via Horizon 2020.
Nicole is a non-active student member of the Labour party. This article does not reflect the views of any research organisation. </span></em></p>With a fast-growing population, London needs a mayor with a clear vision for public transport. Will it get one?Nicole Badstuber, Researcher in Urban Transport Governance at LSE Cities at the London School of Economics and the Centre for Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/580082016-04-27T12:24:42Z2016-04-27T12:24:42ZThe Heathrow problem – and how London mayoral candidates can handle it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120216/original/image-20160426-1330-y1bs9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ooomz/4993058859/sizes/l">ooomz/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With Heathrow already operating at 98% capacity, airport expansion will be one of the biggest issues facing the next mayor of London. Whoever is elected to the position won’t have the final say – that power lies with the UK government – but their opinion carries the weight of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-the-main-contenders-for-london-mayor-and-what-do-they-stand-for-57391">largest electoral mandate</a> of any UK politician. Given that neither of the two main contenders – Labour’s Sadiq Khan and the Conservatives’ Zac Goldsmith – support the expansion of Heathrow airport, both will need to think carefully about how they’d like to address the problem. </p>
<p>Airport capacity has been an issue in London at least since the government initiated a consultation in 2000. In 2012, the government set up the Airports Commission to evaluate the evidence on the matter and propose a way forward. The commission rejected outgoing mayor <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11069851/Boris-Island-airport-plan-pros-and-cons.html">Boris Johnson’s proposal</a> for a whole new airport in the Thames Estuary as too costly. </p>
<p>Instead, when giving <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/airports-commission-final-report">its final report</a> in July 2015, the Airports Commission plumped for an additional runway at Heathrow, believing that noise and air pollution could be adequately mitigated. </p>
<p>Since then, the government has <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-confirms-support-for-airport-expansion-in-the-south-east">decided that</a> further work was needed to ensure that the environmental impacts of a third runway could be managed – effectively delaying a decision on the proposal until after the mayoral election, and the UK’s referendum on EU membership. </p>
<h2>Under pressure</h2>
<p>The House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmselect/cmenvaud/389/38902.htm">later argued</a> that the government should not approve Heathrow expansion unless the project can be reconciled with legal air pollution limits, and would be less noisy than a two-runway airport. </p>
<p>There is a strong demand from business organisations – notably <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35038073">the CBI</a> – for a commitment to Heathrow, and the government has been criticised for flip flopping. Meanwhile, Gatwick Airport has energetically <a href="http://www.gatwickobviously.com/debate">pressed its case</a> for the additional runway to be located there, on grounds of environmental acceptability and lower cost. </p>
<p>The new mayor would make his views felt ahead of the government’s announcement. If the go-ahead is given for Heathrow, the new mayor may also intervene in the public inquiry to address local impacts that would precede the granting of detailed planning consent.</p>
<h2>Wait and see</h2>
<p>Both the main mayoral candidates are against more runway capacity at Heathrow. Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmth is MP for Richmond and North Kingston – a constituency under Heathrow’s flightpath. As such, he has long <a href="http://www.zacgoldsmith.com/campaigns/opposing-heathrow-expansion">campaigned against expansion</a>. Labour’s Sadiq Khan <a href="http://www.sadiq.london/a_modern_and_affordable_transport_network">opposes</a> a third runway at Heathrow too. Instead, Khan advocates a second runway at Gatwick, and he has also pledged to improve rail links to Stansted airport. </p>
<p>It would be easier for a Conservative government to resist the opposition of a Labour mayor to a Heathrow expansion. But Conservative MPs for West London constituencies affected by noise and air pollution would put up a vocal challenge to the plans, too. </p>
<p>Alternatively, there is a respectable case for deferring this difficult political decision, to see how a very competitive aviation sector copes with the growth of demand for air travel. As I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-solution-to-londons-airport-capacity-crisis-do-nothing-37866">suggested previously</a>, market forces would likely mean that priority would be given to business travellers at Heathrow, displacing leisure travellers to other airports – such as Stansted – which have plenty of spare capacity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p>Both Goldsmith and Khan oppose the Heathrow expansion – so how will they solve the air capacity crisis?David Metz, Honorary Professor of Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/580012016-04-27T12:21:30Z2016-04-27T12:21:30ZWhich London mayoral candidate does most to make cycling mainstream?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120332/original/image-20160427-30976-y5unes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In London, cycling is starting to be seen as a key part of the solution to the city’s looming transport problems. We simply <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/human_streets_0.pdf">can’t go on in the old way</a> – if we don’t cut car use, the city will choke and traffic will grind to a halt. With <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/15/nearly-9500-people-die-each-year-in-london-because-of-air-pollution-study">nearly 10,000 Londoners killed each year by air pollution</a>, clean modes of transport such as cycling will be vital to creating a more liveable city. What’s more, London is experiencing <a href="http://www.palmersgreencommunity.org.uk/pgc/images/2016/documents/cycling_conference/The_economic_case_for_cycling.pdf">unprecedented population growth</a>, so unless we can get more people on their bikes, we’ll see strained public transport systems and worsening congestion. </p>
<p>The city desperately needs a mayor who will bring cycling into the mainstream, rather than considering it a fringe form of transport. The main thing people say stops them taking up cycling is their <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-010-9284-y">unwillingness to mix with motor traffic</a>. So, can the candidates who are currently leading the polls commit to the changes we need? I took a look at the manifestos of Labour’s Sadiq Khan and the Conservatives’ Zac Goldsmith, to find out. </p>
<p>If London is truly to become a city of mass cycling, the next mayor will need to invest in a dense network of direct routes, which entail little or no mixing with motor traffic. This network would be comprised of three key elements: protected tracks on busy roads; routes through parks and other green spaces; and quieter streets with little motor traffic. In London, these have been called <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/cycling/routes-and-maps/cycle-superhighways">cycle superhighways</a>, <a href="http://content.tfl.gov.uk/greenways-final-annual-monitoring-report.pdf">greenways</a> and <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/travel-information/improvements-and-projects/quietways">quietways</a> respectively. </p>
<p>Infrastructure is not the only issue – for instance, better traffic enforcement will also be important. But the priority is creating an <a href="http://www.citylab.com/cityfixer/2012/01/8-80-problem-designing-cities-young-and-old/959/">“8-80” network</a> – accessible for users of all ages – situating the bike as the default mode of transport for many short trips. London’s still a long way from this goal, despite some high-quality, high-profile new schemes. So, what would Khan and Goldsmith do to bring cycling into the mainstream? </p>
<h2>What’s Goldsmith got?</h2>
<p>Goldsmith’s <a href="https://issuu.com/conservativeparty/docs/zac_transport_manifesto">transport manifesto</a> promises “a new deal for cyclists”. This may sound promising – but to make cycling a mass mode of transport, we need to focus less on “cyclists” and more on people who aren’t yet cycling. </p>
<p>The first three sections of the manifesto only mention cycling briefly, to criticise pedicabs. Goldsmith leaves the cycling pledges to the fourth section, on air pollution. It’s disappointing that he seems to view cycling as only an environmental issue, as important as that is. Cycling’s potential to keep London moving or reduce congestion goes unmentioned – even though bikes are much more space efficient than cars. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"692144294556254208"}"></div></p>
<p>Instead, the Conservative candidate’s focus is on extending cycle hire, making safety requirements for trucks more rigorous and extending Transport for London’s junction review process. What about new bike routes? It needs “community consent”, implying that – unlike some other major schemes Goldsmith proposes – usual consultation processes are not enough. If “residents’ fears about congestion are borne out”, cycle superhighway schemes could be scrapped.</p>
<h2>Khan’s contribution</h2>
<p>Sadiq Khan’s <a href="http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/themes/569cb9526a21db3279000001/attachments/original/1457451016/x160668_Sadiq_Khan_Manifesto.pdf?1457451016">manifesto</a> includes a section on “a modern and affordable transport network”, which contains pledges on cycling and walking, with a strong focus on safety. Again, it’s a shame not to see cycling discussed as a way of “keeping London moving” – if delays to motorists harm “business competitiveness”, isn’t the same true for delays to pedestrians and cyclists? </p>
<p>Nevertheless, cycling infrastructure features prominently, with promises to increase spending and build more separated routes on main roads. Mention is made of completing and extending “town-centre improvement plans”, which outgoing mayor Boris Johnson called <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases-6084">mini-Hollands</a>. These have potential to overcome the <a href="http://road.cc/content/news/178524-failure-ambition-london-quietways">delivery problems that beset quietways</a>, by focusing on improving local areas rather than just cycle routes. Although Khan still hasn’t really made cycling mainstream in his manifesto, the content is better. </p>
<p>Still, both main candidates are arguably outshone by the Green Party’s <a href="https://london.greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/londonfiles/London_Green_Party_Manifesto_2016_Final_Web_Single_Pages.pdf">Sian Berry</a>, and the Liberal Democrats’ <a href="http://www.markpack.org.uk/138648/caroline-pidgeon-london-mayor-lib-dem-manifesto/">Caroline Pidgeon</a>. Berry’s manifesto shows the strongest grasp of the scale of change needed, while Pidgeon’s pledges 3% of TfL’s budget for cycling. Whoever wins, I suspect <a href="https://cyclingworks.wordpress.com/">continued pressure</a> from Londoners, businesses, health organisations and others will be needed to ensure that cycling is seen as a core part of London’s future – not just something for “cyclists”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58001/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article is written in a personal capacity and is not intended to represent the opinions of any organisation listed below.
Rachel Aldred has conducted research for or has been funded by relevant stakeholder organisations - Transport for London, British Cycling, the Chartered Institute for Logistics and Transport, and the Department for Transport. She has conducted cycling research funded by research councils (ESRC and AHRC via its Creative Exchange programme, with funder Blaze). She is an Elected Trustee of the London Cycling Campaign and chairs its Policy Forum.</span></em></p>Cycling could be a major part of the solution to London’s transport problems – it’s a shame the main mayoral candidates don’t see it that way.Rachel Aldred, Senior Lecturer In Transport, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/573912016-04-26T09:59:40Z2016-04-26T09:59:40ZWho are the main contenders for London mayor and what do they stand for?<p>London’s mayoral election has struggled to get itself noticed as the EU referendum campaign has dominated the airwaves. Yet the post offers the largest single mandate to any politician in Britain – Boris Johnson won <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17946742">more than one million votes</a> in 2012. The mayor may lack powers, but he can use his position as a platform to become an important national political player, as Johnson has done. Being mayor of London matters.</p>
<p>A host of hopefuls are vying for the job but only two – Labour’s Sadiq Khan and the Conservatives’ Zac Goldsmith – have a realistic chance of winning. Neither has yet captured the imagination of Londoners in the way that Johnson, or his predecessor, Ken Livingstone, did. The <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/sadiq-khan-leads-20-london-mayoral-race/">polls currently put Khan ahead 31% to 20%</a> on first preferences, rising to 48% to 32% when “don’t knows” are excluded, and 60% to 40% when second preferences are allocated. But with a quarter of voters still undecided, there’s all to play for.</p>
<h2>Meet Sadiq</h2>
<p>The son of Pakistani immigrants, Khan trained in the law and made his name as a human-rights lawyer before becoming chairman of Liberty. He got involved in politics, being elected as Labour MP for Tooting in 2005. He quickly made his mark, joining Gordon Brown’s government as minister of state for transport in 2008. In opposition, Khan ran Ed Miliband’s successful leadership campaign in 2010 and joined the shadow cabinet, where Miliband gave him the justice brief.</p>
<p>After Labour’s election defeat in 2015, Khan announced he would run for the party’s nomination for the London mayoralty. Tessa Jowell was the early favourite, but Khan benefited from the large influx of new Labour members and supporters enthused by Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership bid. By <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/how-sadiq-khan-won-labour-london-mayoral-nomination">tilting to the left</a> – Khan also nominated Corbyn for the leadership – he was able to secure the votes of a decidedly left-wing London Labour Party, <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/sadiq-khan-beats-favourite-tessa-jowell-to-become-labour-s-candidate-for-mayor-a2945356.html">defeating Jowell</a> in a membership ballot.</p>
<p>The manner of this victory, alongside his human rights background, ensured that Khan was seen by some as a radical left-winger. In reality, he belongs firmly in Labour’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/davehillblog/2016/feb/01/a-sadiq-khan-win-in-london-would-expose-the-failings-of-jeremy-corbyn">“moderate” soft-left</a> camp – and his nomination success is a classic case of a candidate moving to the flanks to secure the endorsement before <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/02/sadiq-khan-london-mayor-jeremy-corbyn-labour">distancing himself from Corbyn</a> and returning to the centre. That has seemingly left some Labour MPs hoping that, with Khan as London mayor, they would have a figurehead for internal opposition to Corbyn. </p>
<p>But while, as mayor, Khan would enjoy an independent powerbase, he would need to tread cautiously. In an atmosphere where talk of deselection is rife, any open challenge to Corbyn could lead to an attempt by London activists to replace Khan as Labour’s candidate in 2020. He might decide he has more than enough on his plate dealing with London’s housing crisis and transport problems, without getting involved in national politics.</p>
<h2>Get to know Goldsmith</h2>
<p>Zac Goldsmith’s background is very different. He is the son of the billionaire financier, Sir James Goldsmith, who formed the Referendum Party in the 1990s. Prior to becoming the Conservative MP for Richmond Park in 2010, Goldsmith worked in journalism, editing <a href="http://www.theecologist.org/magazine/">The Ecologist</a> magazine, reflecting his longstanding interest in the environment. After Johnson decided not to contest the mayoralty in 2016, Goldsmith easily secured the Tory nomination.</p>
<p>Goldsmith has relatively fewer difficulties than Khan in relation to his party leader – although he has backed Brexit and would likely oppose any decision to build a third runway at Heathrow. If Goldsmith wins the contest, these tensions are likely to escalate. But for the duration of the campaign, the contrast with Johnson is a greater problem. Quite simply, Goldsmith’s personality pales in comparison with his ebullient predecessor. Personal appeal is important in London’s mayoral election, where a high-profile post has tended to attract big personalities. Goldsmith is not one (although neither is Khan). </p>
<p>But the problem is more acute for Goldsmith because politically, London is a left-leaning city, with liberal values and a large ethnic minority population. As in previous elections, the Tories will try their “doughnut” strategy – winning the outer ring of affluent boroughs while Labour focuses on the inner boroughs.</p>
<p>However, Johnson’s success was partly down to support from what the pollster, Peter Kellner, called “<a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/05/03/boris-course-victory/">Boris Labour</a>”. In 2012, Kellner reckoned that one-in-ten Labour voters backed Johnson for mayor, partly because they liked the Tory candidate and partly because they disliked Livingstone. Goldsmith needs some cross-over support if he is to win.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/119988/original/image-20160425-22387-12bzis6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/119988/original/image-20160425-22387-12bzis6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119988/original/image-20160425-22387-12bzis6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119988/original/image-20160425-22387-12bzis6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119988/original/image-20160425-22387-12bzis6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119988/original/image-20160425-22387-12bzis6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119988/original/image-20160425-22387-12bzis6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Campaigning in Johnson’s shadow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/53797600@N04/7079752387/sizes/l">BackBoris2012/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>But Goldsmith lacks Johnson’s charisma. Neither does he have the advantage of facing Livingstone, who was unpopular and discredited by 2012. Goldsmith’s only hope is to go after Khan. His Labour opponent’s legal past and history of sharing platforms with unsavoury characters has created a small opening in what has otherwise been a lacklustre campaign. </p>
<p>The Conservatives have been accused of <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/racial-politics-zac-goldsmith-s-london-mayoral-campaign">politicising Khan’s Muslim background</a> by “dog-whistling” with references to him being “radical” and “divisive”, and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/sadiq-khan-unfit-to-be-london-mayor-says-zac-goldsmith/">linking him to extremists</a>. Much like his <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-political-campaigns-that-target-ethnic-minority-groups-can-go-horribly-wrong-56946">targeted campaign leaflets</a>, this tactic could be aimed at winning the votes of working-class white voters and largely middle-class Hindus. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/19/sadiq-khan-regrets-giving-impression-he-shared-extremists-views">Realising the danger</a>, Khan has sought to reassure voters that he is an implacable opponent of Islamism.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the contest may be decided by turnout, which tends to be low in London mayoral elections – between 35% and 45%. The question then is which candidate can coax more of his supporters to the polls. At the moment, it looks as though Khan will do it. But if Goldsmith convinces enough voters that his Labour opponent represents a threat, he might pip him to the post.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57391/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p>An expert introduces Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan, and considers their chances of securing one of the most coveted positions in politics.Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/573922016-04-13T10:19:31Z2016-04-13T10:19:31ZUnlocking small spaces could be the key to solving London’s housing crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118391/original/image-20160412-15895-1fil5vt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/luc-mechelen/10881629305/sizes/l">Luc Mercelis</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Politicians are finally waking up to the fact that London has a housing crisis. Everyone, from the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/davehillblog/2016/mar/29/which-london-mayor-candidate-will-fix-the-capitals-housing-crisis">candidates for London mayor</a> to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35217418">prime minister</a>, has been talking about the urgent need to address the shortfall. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that London’s population is growing dramatically with some estimates suggesting that it could reach around 11m within 25 years. To meet the growing demand – as well as the current backlog – we now need to build somewhere between <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/mdag_agenda_growing_london.pdf">49,000 and 62,000 homes a year</a>. Last year, we built <a href="http://data.london.gov.uk/housingmarket/">just over 24,000</a>.</p>
<p>There are plenty of theories as to why London’s housing market is so dysfunctional. Many blame poor planning which takes too long and fails to allocate enough land. Others blame opportunistic developers who hoard land and speculate on its increasing value rather than developing it. Some suggest that the problem stems from international investors buying up housing in London and leaving it empty. But the reality is, we’ve simply been building too few homes for far too long. </p>
<p>There are several reasons for this. For one thing, we no longer have a viable public-led housing programme – instead, we leave it almost entirely to the market. Within the market, we rely on a very small number of large private housebuilders, whose primary interest (understandably) is in delivering value for their shareholders – not in solving the housing crisis. </p>
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<span class="caption">London living: St George’s Wharf development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mariano-mantel/10697037364/sizes/l">Miradortigre/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>Moreover, we don’t do enough to seek out and encourage the development of small sites across the city. Instead, we rely on the development of a small number of much larger sites. And finally, we have allowed our small builders – who once built vast swathes of post-war suburban London – <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldbuilt/100/100.pdf">to wither</a> in the face of the perverse lending practices. It seems that banks no longer wish to take the “risk” on housebuilding – despite the huge amounts of money that those international investors seem to be making.</p>
<h2>Thinking small</h2>
<p>So what is the solution? My research has shown that the very ordinary local mixed streets that form the connective tissue weaving its way across London also contain, within 500m of their frontages, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305900614000439">75% of London’s developable brownfield land</a>. </p>
<p>Although these sorts of sites are small and complex, they are also sustainable; well-connected to public transport and well-serviced by local facilities and amenities. Such sites are often in need of a new purpose as retail declines, and they are already part and parcel of London’s existing communities. </p>
<p>These should be the first places we look to develop – not the last. But they are not always immediately obvious and viable development propositions. Instead they are often hidden behind existing activities, partially utilised, or even in full use but at a very low level: for example, for single storey developments.</p>
<p>Many of these are also sites which provide a wealth of temporary and long-term employment and other opportunities. Simply clearing all such backland sites for housing would be hugely damaging. So what other choices do we have? </p>
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<span class="caption">Greenbelt: no houses here, please.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wheatfields/2177111999/sizes/l">allispossible.org.uk</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>London is surrounded by the greenbelt – an area of open land on which building activity is restricted. But the greenbelt is a popular device to constrain the capital’s growth, and there seems to be little political will to challenge that. To export the city’s growth (as we did in the post-war era) also no longer seems viable, given that almost everywhere else in the south-east of England has its own challenges of housing undersupply and population growth to deal with. </p>
<h2>Getting dense</h2>
<p>So, there’s only one viable option left: the city needs to become denser. With around <a href="http://www.demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf">14,600 people per square mile</a>, London is a low density city by international standards: by comparison, Lima – capital of Peru – has a similar population to London, but is almost twice as dense. </p>
<p>This would mean bringing forward development of the sorts of small viable brownfield sites already described above. It means making use of the acres of land which run alongside, over and occasionally under the city’s roads and rail infrastructure. It means better utilising the voluminous quantities of space dedicated solely to parking, and the low grade spaces within and surrounding many of our public housing estates. It means making use of all the wasted “spaces left over after planning” that are liberally sprinkled across the city offering us maintenance headaches but no real amenity value. </p>
<p>Once you start looking, the opportunities are vast. In London’s town centres alone, increasing density and proactively tackling problems of complex multiple ownerships could release capacity for <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/AccommodatingGrowthInTownCentres2014_2.pdf">220,000 new homes</a> over the next decade.</p>
<p>But making the city denser will not be an easy task. Public authorities will need to work much harder on planning and design strategies which engage with existing uses and communities. They will need to optimise the local opportunities, and avoid stripping out the sorts of marginal uses that still have tremendous value to London such as some of its small scale manufacturing and production businesses. </p>
<h2>Rising to the challenge</h2>
<p>This will certainly not be achieved by cutting back on the role of the public sector and deregulating planning either. Instead, to stand any chance of bringing forward the legions of smaller sites across the city we will require renewed investment in these vital functions of the state. In particular, we’ll need to free up planners from the reactive development management that typically dominates their lives to make space for the creative and proactive planning that will be required to deliver the sorts of sites and development opportunities described above. </p>
<p>We will also need to convince communities that this strategy could work. All too often residents are highly sceptical of any attempts to increase density. They tend to associate it with the discredited high rises of the past, rather than with the sorts of terraces of townhouses and mansion blocks that characterise the highest density – and highest value – parts of London today, places such as Kensington and Chelsea.</p>
<p>If we’re going to solve a problem as big as London’s housing crisis, we will need to think small to think big. We need to unleash the city’s dynamic and entrepreneurial spirit – not only among the smaller developers, but also within local communities, housing associations and the public sector – all of whom will need to be part of this effort. The next generation will not thank us if we fail to deal with this issue. London has always risen to such challenges in the past, and will do so now. We owe it to all future Londoners – from wherever they hail.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Carmona does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s capacity for 220,000 new homes where many people least expect it.Matthew Carmona, Professor of Planning and Urban Design, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/569462016-04-07T14:42:45Z2016-04-07T14:42:45ZWhy political campaigns that target ethnic minority groups can go horribly wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117850/original/image-20160407-16254-kt9ebj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cul-de-Zac?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The issue of ethnicity was always going to come up ahead of London’s mayoral elections: if Labour candidate Sadiq Khan wins, he will become London’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/london-mayor-election/mayor-of-london/12079857/Why-Sadiq-Khan-will-beat-Zac-Goldsmith-and-what-that-would-mean.html">first Muslim mayor</a>, and the first minority ethnic person to hold the office. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, his Conservative rival, Zac Goldsmith, <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/racial-politics-zac-goldsmith-s-london-mayoral-campaign">has been criticised</a> for running a racially divisive campaign to gain the votes of some British Indians, who make up <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/articles/ethnicityandnationalidentityinenglandandwales/2012-12-11#differences-in-ethnicity-across-local-authorities">6.6% of the city’s population</a>. </p>
<p>The campaign targeted the largely Hindu and Sikh Indian population – in particular, the Gujurati and Punjabi communities – setting them apart from the largely Muslim Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities, of which Sadiq Khan is a member. Leaflets <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/16/zac-goldsmith-leaflet-british-indians-heirlooms">describing Goldsmith</a> as “standing up for the Indian community” were considered <a href="https://twitter.com/nuclear_pavlova/status/711187041070018560">bizarre</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/lml7890/status/712615082799284224">cringe-worthy</a> by some, and <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/next-time-you-contact-me-zac-goldsmith-remember-that-im-more-ethnic-name-1552651">patronising and downright offensive</a> by others. </p>
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<p>What Goldsmith and his team failed to realise is that ethnic identity is a complex social and psychological concept. Rather than a rigid category based on ancestry, language or religion, ethnic identity <a href="https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/files/iser_working_papers/2008-26.pdf">is self-defined</a>. What it means to be a member of an ethnic community is constantly being challenged and changed over time, by both individuals and groups. There is no one definition of the “British Indian community”, so we can’t really claim to know about their shared political interests. </p>
<p>A great deal of study has been done on the political attachments of different classes, genders and ethnicities. For example, <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/labour-losing-ethnic-minority-vote">many have noted</a> the strong connection that ethnic minorities in the UK have historically had the Labour party. This doesn’t necessarily tell us that ethnic minorities have a specific political agenda – just that they are <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Race_and_party_competition_in_Britain.html?id=q_NvAAAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">generally loyal to the Labour party</a>. </p>
<p>Besides, the idea that ethnic minority groups support Labour has been undermined in recent years by a <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/">shift towards the centre-right</a> – among the British Indian middle classes in particular. The Conservative party has made efforts to increase its proportion of ethnic minority MPs, and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/joint-press-conference-david-cameron-and-prime-minister-narendra-modi">publicly demonstrate</a> their appreciation, as it were, of UK-Indian ties. </p>
<p>So, given the diverse and changing nature of British South Asian groups, how much can we really tell about what they want from their elected representatives? Well, in 2010, the <a href="http://www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/research/embes-the-ethnic-minority-british-election-study.html">Ethnic Minority Survey</a> – carried out as part of the <a href="http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/">British Election Study</a> – investigated the political views of the five main ethnic minority groups in the UK: Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black Caribbean and Black African. </p>
<h2>Love lost</h2>
<p>Participants were asked whether they agreed that parties were only interested in the votes of black and Asian groups, rather than their opinions. A large proportion of the Bangladeshi, Indian and Pakistani samples agreed. </p>
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<p>They were also asked about their feelings towards each of the main UK political parties. In 2010, the three largest South Asian groups in the UK saw Labour as the best party to help improve life for ethnic minorities, as well as the party that best represented their views. </p>
<p>Although this was more pronounced among the Bangladeshi and Pakistani groups – 74.2% and 67% respectively – nearly 60% of the Indian group still opted for Labour, against 27.5% who opted for the Conservatives. </p>
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<p>If we subdivide the Indian group by religion, we can see that almost three quarters of the Indian Sikh sample believed that Labour was the best party for ethnic minorities, with 52.4% of Indian Hindus in agreement. So even if the Indian Hindu group is less supportive of Labour than the other ethno-religious South Asian groups in the UK, the majority are still less likely to extol the virtues of the Conservative party. </p>
<p>From the results of the May 2010 local and general elections, we can see that party attitude aligned closely with voting outcomes: 64% of the Bangladeshi group voted for Labour in the local elections and 70% in the general election. In each case, less than 20% of their vote went to the Conservative party. This was mirrored by the Indian and Pakistani groups, albeit to a slightly lesser degree.</p>
<h2>A super-diverse city</h2>
<p>About a quarter of London residents are of full or mixed Asian descent, according to <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/articles/ethnicityandnationalidentityinenglandandwales/2012-12-11">2011 census data</a> and over 15% are of full or mixed black descent. London is an exceptionally diverse city, which explains why mayoral candidates may have thought that targeted campaigning was a good idea.</p>
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<p>When South Asian respondents from London were asked about their feelings towards the parties, the Conservative party registered far more feelings of dislike than like, compared to Labour. There was an average 14 percentage point difference across those who stated that they “strongly like” Labour, compared with the Conservatives. </p>
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<p>Taken together, this data shows that British South Asian groups are pretty cynical about parties’ attempts to court their vote. Coupled with the fact that South Asian voters – including the Indian group – still take a chilly attitude towards the Conservative party, the survey suggests that targeted campaigning is unlikely to be well received. In a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870701599465#.VwJIEq32a70">super-diverse city</a>, <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=12165">superficial attempts</a> to cosy up to ethnic minority groups are ultimately misguided.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56946/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rima Saini receives PhD funding from the Nuffield Foundation, HEFCE and the ESRC through the Q-Step Programme. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils or any other public funder.</span></em></p>The Conservative candidate for London mayor – Zac Goldsmith – is in hot water for “patronising” the British Indian community with targeted campaign.Rima Saini, PhD Teaching Assistant in Quantitative Sociology, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/568412016-03-29T12:19:30Z2016-03-29T12:19:30ZExplainer: what are rent controls – and who benefits from them?<p>New York, San Francisco and Stockholm have them. And now some Londoners are calling for them to curb rising rents. But what are rent controls and how do they work?</p>
<p>Rent controls can come in many flavours but they are all a form of <a href="http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/price-ceiling.php">price ceiling</a> to cap the level of rent that landlords can charge. Generally, price ceilings lead to underproduction and black markets. Producers, where possible, switch their efforts to alternative goods that fetch better prices. Shortages and illegal trading of the regulated goods often follow.</p>
<p>Housing is a durable good, however, and most renters do not live in new homes. So it is tempting to think of the rental stock as rather fixed and therefore largely immune to the normal pernicious effects that price controls have on supply. </p>
<p>To some extent, this is true in the short run. But over the long run, it is generally not. Shortages in quantity and quality will eventually occur, though their manner and degree depends very much on the particulars of the rent control policy. The particulars also determine who wins and who loses. </p>
<h2>Different types</h2>
<p>Rent controls must grant renters greater security over their tenancy and also regulate the rents that they pay. Both are necessary, as otherwise landlords could force tenants to leave in spite of any security by raising their rents prohibitively. </p>
<p>Typically, the rents are controlled by a local rent board which decides on an annual basis how much a tenant’s rent may permissibly be increased. Almost always, these increases are lower than the growth rate of unregulated, market rents in the area. This keeps rents, for existing tenants at least, “affordable”. </p>
<p>It would be arduous (and boring) to create a taxonomy of all rent controls. But rent control is one of the few policies in economics where there is little disagreement over their unintended consequences – the effects are readily observable in the many markets where rent control has been enacted.</p>
<p>A key issue is whether rents are regulated for existing tenants only – or for new tenants as well. In <a href="http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2015/08/25/the-best-and-worst-of-san-franciscos-rent-control/">San Francisco</a>, rents are unregulated for new tenants, but incumbents have the right to renew at a regulated increase in rents. In <a href="http://www.nycrgb.org/html/resources/faq/rentcontrol.html">New York City</a> or <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/17538271111137903">Stockholm</a>, apartments themselves are regulated; rents are more or less determined by a board and are (more or less) independent of the length of current tenancy. </p>
<p>This difference in approach is reflected in the market. In San Francisco, rents for new tenants are very high, in part because landlords know that they may not be able to increase them later. In NYC and Stockholm, rents for regulated apartments are quite low. And in NYC only a fraction of the rental stock falls under rent control. Many rentals are completely unregulated.</p>
<h2>Finders keepers</h2>
<p>Both approaches heavily disincentivise renters from relocating. In San Francisco, for example, a tenant who has been living in their apartment for years would likely have to pay a substantially higher rent should they move to a different apartment and begin a new lease. </p>
<p>In Stockholm and New York City, rent controls have had unintended knock-on effects on the market as a whole. For different reasons, in both cities there is a shortage of rent controlled apartments. In Stockholm, apartments are rationed by the government. Waiting lists for apartments <a href="http://www.smartgrowthseattle.org/letter-stockholm-rent-control/">are long</a>. In New York, landlords have greater autonomy over who they rent a controlled apartment to: it is “finders-keepers”, <a href="http://www.criticalcommons.org/Members/Ghent/clips/the%20apartment_rent%20control.mp4">and the finding is very tough</a>.</p>
<h2>Disrepair</h2>
<p>Shortages are not always immediately apparent. Suppose a city, London, were to impose controls on all rentals. At first, there wouldn’t be much of a change in the rental stock; perhaps a slight reduction in the number of buy-to-lets. </p>
<p>Over time, though, the rental stock would decrease. From the beginning, regulated rentals will be under-maintained. Because landlords are poorly compensated for any improvements under rent control, they lack the incentive to upgrade or even perhaps make repairs. In fact, disrepair may help them get rid of an incumbent tenant – an attractive option under San Francisco-style controls. </p>
<p>There are also knock-on effects for the owner-occupied housing market, which is not regulated. If rent is capped, the buy-to-let market would likely cool down. Owner-occupiers, because of the value they get from living in their home, would be willing to pay more than prospective landlords. Rental homes, where and when possible would be sold into owner-occupancy as a result.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116619/original/image-20160329-13688-1apltcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116619/original/image-20160329-13688-1apltcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116619/original/image-20160329-13688-1apltcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116619/original/image-20160329-13688-1apltcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116619/original/image-20160329-13688-1apltcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116619/original/image-20160329-13688-1apltcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116619/original/image-20160329-13688-1apltcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NYC has long rent control waiting lists.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottdavies/5614406098/in/photolist-9y8ik9-6DDZRV-mzFP4D-a4GUD1-6L2GiN-hqU253-6DJbwU-4cfszn-PfZbf-fmof8a-6bAvRa-aBMgsj-ri9gB4-8Ufj9d-pGJgFM-PyQpT-6NofQw-dMps9f-4dUAch-dnoEXb-hEMz6X-pYrnDH-5JeD4b-9CuJAC-5pvNxY-2k9kJY-9nov6M-8UeRQW-oJNt46-4EwYx4-8UeTV7-9YChQR-NN1Yy-nNDy5j-ahhEJY-5pvXkS-zyRaq-82BnaR-3J4FFn-8UeRD5-5vWMjw-7DiK5X-7YvCYn-8UfhhW-6De6T7-2u3mae-h2f1n-8wPNuM-3yrd8K-5epd66">Scott Davies</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In NYC and Stockholm, where much of the regulated rental stock is in multi-storey buildings owned by a single legal entity, conversion to owner-occupancy is relatively rare. In London, however, where much of the rental stock <a href="http://www.countrywide.co.uk/news/2014/countrywide-quarterly-lettings-index-q1-2014/">is individually owned</a>, homes would move rather easily into the owner-occupied sector. This may be good for renters who are willing and able to buy a similar home, as house prices will generally be lower. But it will be much tougher for those not ready to buy.</p>
<h2>Fewer options</h2>
<p>The consequences of rent control are not as simple as: “Renters win, landlords lose.” This is sort of true initially. But would-be landlords (investors who have not yet bought) lose nothing. They can move their money to alternative investments if the return on being a landlord is not high enough. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, future renters lose. Investors have many choices over assets to invest in but renters have fewer options; they either rent or own. For many renters, switching to owning is not possible or would be financially difficult. And so they will end up bearing the costs of the price ceiling.</p>
<p>Of course, rent control need not lead to scarcity if the government is willing to step in and subsidise construction. But then it becomes the public purse that bears the costs of rent regulation.</p>
<p>There are times and places where rent control may nevertheless be good policy. It may be warranted in war time, particularly if other parts of the economy, such as housing construction, are being simultaneously regulated. In fact, both NYC and London had rent controls <a href="http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1583&context=clr">during World War II</a>. But this may lead to those renters that enjoy the controls during the war becoming a vocal constituency for maintaining the policy, with the long-term unintended consequences this brings.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56841/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Halket is supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council through the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (CeMMAP grant number ES/I034021/1) and through an ESRC transformative research grant, grant number ES/M000486/1. He is affiliated with the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils, the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice or the Institute for Fiscal Studies.</span></em></p>Why putting a price ceiling on rent is not the answer to a city’s housing problems.Jonathan Halket, Lecturer in Economics, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.