tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/mengistu-hailemariam-55771/articlesMengistu Hailemariam – The Conversation2021-09-23T14:11:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1681932021-09-23T14:11:39Z2021-09-23T14:11:39ZTigray war antagonists are reluctant to talk peace: why and what’s next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422843/original/file-20210923-21-csb2bp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is almost a year since the war in Ethiopia’s northern state of Tigray broke out. It all begun with a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2d4WAtbhBc">“pre-emptive strike”</a> on the North Command of the federal army by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front on the 4 November 2020. The central government responded with what it described as a brief <a href="https://eritreahub.org/progress-of-the-tigray-war">“surgical operation”</a> to bring to justice the Front’s leadership. Since then, the war has expanded outside Tigray to Afar and Amhara regional states.</p>
<p>With the benefit of hindsight, it is safe to conclude that this war was riddled with miscalculations and strategic blunders. It was a blunder for the TPLF to think it would gain the military upper hand by decapitating the Northern Command – the most equipped branch of the national army. Its act of provocation, however, generated national condemnation and an even more forceful reaction from the government. </p>
<p>On the goverment’s side, the belief that its counter-offensive would be brief was a significant miscalculation. Prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s government underestimated the strength of its foe and the unpredictable nature of war. </p>
<p>The results have been tragic. Ordinary people are paying the heaviest price. They face unlawful executions, rape, displacement, and uncertain futures. In recent weeks, schools have been destroyed, hospitals and health-care centres looted and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tigray-forces-killed-120-civilians-amhara-village-ethiopia-officials-2021-09-08/">civilians are executed</a>. Those displaced because by conflict face starvation of biblical magnitude.</p>
<p>The Ethiopian rainy season has ended with the start of the Ethiopian New Year. Ethiopians are craving for a more hopeful new beginning. However, the improvement of the weather and dry roads might open up yet another opportunity for a further bloodshed. Calls for ceasefire and dialogue have so far fallen on deaf ears. The big question is: Why?</p>
<h2>Entrenched positions</h2>
<p>In June, the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew its troops from the regional capital. The Tigrayan forces used the opportunity to expand the conflict to Afar and Amhara regions – two regions that share a border with Tigray. Their goal is either to open a corridor to Sudan through Amhara region to get supplies in, or block the Djibouti–Addis Ababa road in Afar – an important economic life-line to Ethiopia. </p>
<p>This shows that the TPLF’s ultimate goal is to choke the economy and target the governent’s ability to govern. The ultimate aim would be regime change in Addis Ababa.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the central government’s position is to defeat the TPLF <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopias-premier-urges-civilians-to-join-fight-against-tigrayan-forces/a-58822214">once and for all</a>. In practice, this is extremely complicated as the enemy is an entity which is, for better or worse, ingrained within the people of Tigray. In other words, so long as the people of Tigray are willing to embrace TPLF, any effort to eliminate the TPLF is bound to pit the central government against Tigrayans.</p>
<p>Rather than seeking peaceful ways out, both sides have entrenched their positions as the conflict has progressed. </p>
<p>There are a number of important factors at play. In Abiy Ahmed’s case, the population is solidly behind him over his firm stance on the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam. Public sentiment was strongly in favour of their leader standing up to Egypt and its <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/48311/gerd-despite-trumps-reckless-remarks-us-can-play-significant-role-in-nile-dispute/">international backers</a> who oppose the project. The prime minister did not blink in the face of significant <a href="https://www.foreignbrief.com/africa/the-enduring-diplomatic-struggles-of-ethiopias-dam-plan/">diplomatic pressure</a>. </p>
<p>The war in Tigray is another political event that helped him garner support. </p>
<p>There was popular hesitation in the build-up to the war because of fear that internal conflict would put unnecessary strain on the already weakened social fabric and economy. However, TPLF’s attack on the North Command dramatically shifted <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H68aDa9je0k">popular perception</a> and entrenched a feeling that defeat was a necessary measure to save the nation from a potential balkanisation. </p>
<p>The Prime Minister, therefore, seems to carry the burden of demonstrating that he is made for leadership in such difficult times by defeating the TPLF. His recent speech explaining to the nation that fighting TPLF is just a preparatory <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrGsSPVc2lI">exercise for more formidable enemies</a> confirms that ceasefire and dialogue with TPLF is not in his mind.</p>
<p>On the TPLF side, their support was waning even among the Tigrayan following their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/25/rise-and-fall-of-ethiopias-tplf-tigray-peoples-liberation-front">ouster from the centre of power</a> in 2017 after three decades in power. Tigrayans paid a heavy price in the civil war that deposed the communist regime headed by Mengistu Hailemariam. However, there was a growing feeling that the leaders they put in power have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnm67DAg3OQ">lost their sense of service</a> to their people. </p>
<p>It is the current war, therefore, that helped the Tigrayan elite to regain their position as the voice of the Tigrayan people. However, if they have to opt for ceasefire, it might create a condition where they might face some difficult questions. They would also be under pressure to map out a political future the people deserve and deliver services. And that would be a mammoth task to tackle after immense loss and destruction. </p>
<p>That’s why, instead of opting for ceasefire, the TPLF might decide to prolong the conflict as a means of keeping itself relevant to Tigrayans until they find a favourable orientation.</p>
<h2>What must be done</h2>
<p>Can peace be achieved? In principle, most conflict ends with peace negotiations. In Ethiopian situation, it is a matter of when, not if. Prolonging the war, however, comes with heavy human cost and economic burden. For the antagonists, cutting the human cost requires a dramatic mindset shift from ego-driven politics to a politics that puts people at the centre. </p>
<p>People in Tigray are facing severe starvation. Citizens in Wollo and Gondar of Amhara region and Afar are facing unlawful <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210826-shell-shocked-survivors-describe-brutal-tigray-rebel-advance">killings and mass displacement</a>. If the leaders are hell-bent on ignoring the plights of the suffering, they also need to be accountable for loss and destruction.</p>
<p>The question is, where should the process of the restoration of peace start?</p>
<p>I would argue that peace efforts should be two pronged. At the high political level, African countries – especially, South Africa, Rwanda and Ghana – should play a role in securing ceasefire and dialogue. There are a number of reasons these three countries are best-placed to play this role.</p>
<p>The leaders of all three have strongly spoken against the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy1jCdoPwHM">perpetuation of Africa’s dependence</a> on outside forces. They also supported the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIAp9CEgGMc">revitalisation of the African agency</a> both economically and politically. In addition, they are more likely to play a mediator role that doesn’t involve inserting their own political interests. Lastly, they have a better understanding of cultural and political nuances of the conflict compared to western counterparts. </p>
<p>At the grassroots level, traditional elders, religious leaders and civic organisations should be equipped and empowered to work on improving people-to-people relationship. This should not be limited to Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions. </p>
<p>The sanctions imposed by the West are very unlikely to yield a positive result in restoring peace. Instead, they might be used by both sides to galvanise their support base. Even if the US manages to secure ceasefire through sanctions, it is almost doomed to fail because it cannot generate conviction and trust between the warring sides. </p>
<p>Peaceful culture is created by those who are humble enough to listen from both sides, not by those flex their muscles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammed Girma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In principle, most conflicts end with peace negotiations. In the Ethiopian situation, it is a matter of when, not if.Mohammed Girma, Visiting Lecturer, University of RoehamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1006782018-07-31T13:38:43Z2018-07-31T13:38:43ZEthiopians want love and forgiveness. But they want justice too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229576/original/file-20180727-106527-n0kht0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed replaced aloofness with authenticity.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/STR</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In its long history, Ethiopia has seen a few political contours. These range from politics based on alleged <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/powers-mengist-and-peasants-in-rural-ethiopia-the-may-2005-elections/3ED7674AF8F19EA12CB9B8B959D3A558#">divine will</a> to <a href="https://hts.org.za/index.php/hts/article/view/4878">scientific materialism</a> – as a rejection of divine ascription – and to ethno-linguistic politics. While political personalities greatly differed from one another, one can legitimately argue that <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/105/419/173/15028">authoritarianism</a>, the use of force and fear as a means of governing was common to all of them.</p>
<p>Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed so far has shown that he is a different breed. It’s as though he came already conscious of the abject failure of displays of strength, aloofness and fear in leadership role. He replaced aloofness with authenticity and went as far as acknowledging that his party was committing <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/abiy-ahmed-transforming-ethiopia-face-adversity-180622112645741.html">terrorist acts</a>. People found him easy to trust. Instead of strength and force, he deployed a rather vulnerable alternative – love. People across ethnic and religious boundaries reciprocated the affection. </p>
<p>Former leaders administered justice by killing or putting their predecessors and opponents behind the bars. But he opted to pardon the incarcerated politicians, activists and journalists. Abiy <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJnC2aX4jP8">said</a>,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Emperor Haile Selassie did this to Lij Eyasu, Mengistu Hailemariam did it to Haile Selassie. This cycle has to be stopped by means of forgiveness, because it didn’t help. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Forgiveness, therefore, captures his sense of justice so far. And love. A keen student of religions and traditional systems of knowledge, he understood that Ethiopians, for a long time, were negotiating their coexistence by means of love and forgiveness. </p>
<p>His narrative world, albeit utopian, is accessible and enchanting. Despite the imminent dangers, many who turned up to the recent <a href="https://qz.com/1314460/the-ethiopia-rally-bomb-will-test-the-prime-ministers-reform-agenda-and-internal-party-conflicts/">support rallies</a>, were defending not only their new leader, but also a narrative world in which Abiy and people are finding common ground. Instead of demanding them to come to him, his narrative found the people where they were.</p>
<p>The language of love and reconciliation also colours his diplomatic agenda. His positive message of togetherness has won <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/25180/how-peace-in-the-horn-of-africa-can-transform-u-s-ethiopia-relations">friendship</a> with Djibouti, Sudan, South Sudan, Somaliland and even Eritrea.</p>
<p>Doubtless, this approach is his greatest strength. Because of it, he has amassed political capital both at home and abroad. But, it could be his greatest weakness too. There are those who oppose him and are prepared to use violence to stop his reform agenda, and render the country ungovernable. Besides sporadic ethnic clashes, there have been some high profile assassinations (and an attempted assasination) that remained shrouded in mystery. The country manager of Dangote Cement was <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/ethiopia-probes-death-of-dangote-country-manager-two-others">killed</a> in Oromia region. It’s not yet known who committed the atrocity. Another <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/world/africa/ethiopia-dam-manager.html">shocking incident</a> was the murder of Simegne Bekele, the manager of Grand Renaissance Dam. While there is no evidence to show that these two individuals were his allies, the killings seem to be intended to create confusion and chaos. There was also an <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/assassination-attempt-on-new-ethiopian-leader-kills-supporters-at-peace-rally-0pfbjrwdz">attempted assasination</a> targeting the prime minister himself. </p>
<p>Despite his hesitation to name the culprits, the demand for justice is growing louder. Here are the reasons.</p>
<h2>Love and forgiveness not enough</h2>
<p>Firstly, Abiy’s conciliatory tone has played a soothing role in the nation that was reeling from a variety of injustices including <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e6819126-2535-11e8-b27e-cc62a39d57a0">economic marginalisation</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/01/ethiopia-ethnic-nationalism-gondar-protests-170102081805528.html">ethnic discrimination</a>, arbitrary incarcerations, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2018/05/ethiopia-police-unit-unlawfully-killing-people-must-be-stopped/">unlawful killing</a>. It has eased the collective anxiety, injected hope and brought a sense of togetherness in a way that transcends ethnic and religious differences.</p>
<p>But the politics of love should not be taken as a replacement for justice. It should rather be seen as complementary. The plight of those who are still living through the pain of being wronged should be addressed to ensure sustainable peace. </p>
<p>Abiy runs the only institution – the state – with coercive power and tools to maintain order. The military, police and judiciary arms of the government, among others, are directly accountable to him. Abiy needs to channel his energy on the strength of his office, and use his power to ensure these institutions administer justice.</p>
<p>Secondly, the state needs to work with organisations which are better positioned to promote his agenda of social harmony. Abiy is already aware of this. He has talked about the critical roles of the <a href="http://unpo.org/article/19701">Gada System</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137403285_4">Shimglina</a> – traditional means of moderation, adjudication and peacemaking - and religious institutions. </p>
<p>Thirdly, people who have been wronged need answers. Unaddressed injustice could breed anger - a recipe for revenge. When justice is delayed or goes unaddressed, it provides a justification for those who want to sort things out on their own. </p>
<p>For example, there has been an attempt to destroy the properties of Tigrayans in Amhara region as a response to the unjust <a href="http://addisstandard.com/commentary-increasing-accounts-displacement-violence-ethnic-amharas-solving-priority/">displacement</a> of Amhara residents in Benishangul Gumuz. Another example is the <a href="https://addisstandard.com/news-standoff-debre-markos-city-army-enters-calm-residents-target-veteran-andm-member-bereket-simon/">damage to property</a> in Debre Markos when people decided to deliver mob justice by capturing a member of old guards of the ruling coalition. </p>
<p>These incidents show the direction things could take if Abiy’s administration fails to make justice part of his reform effort. Justice needs to run its course before victims are transformed into perpetrators.</p>
<p>Fourthly, there are still dark places in nation’s political landscape. Despite his best effort of setting a conciliatory tone, some are still <a href="http://aigaforum.com/article2018/Justice-to-the-people-of-Tigray.htm">bitter</a>, because they feel they are on the losing side. In Somali region, shocking reports of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/07/04/ethiopia-torture-somali-region-prison">human rights abuses</a> are surfacing. </p>
<h2>Rare pastoral quality</h2>
<p>As it stands, Abiy’s Ethiopia is taking strides in the right direction, but there is a long way to go. It is endearing to have a political leader with a rare pastoral quality. But his premiership will be judged by how safe he keeps the nation, by how he protects the weakest from those who have political and economic muscle, and by the degree of economic progress and fairness of its distribution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammed Girma is affiliated with British and Foreign Bible Society.</span></em></p>Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed needs to strike a balance between forgiveness and justice.Mohammed Girma, Visiting Lecturer at London School of Theology and Research associate, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/988392018-06-25T12:33:03Z2018-06-25T12:33:03ZExplosion at rally proves that Ethiopia isn’t out of the woods yet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224659/original/file-20180625-19385-1ik7ts2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed minutes before an explosion.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/STR</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>At least two people died and 156 were wounded in a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/06/police-officials-arrested-ethiopia-grenade-attack-180624133728775.html">grenade attack</a> at a political rally in Addis Ababa addressed by reformist Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Abiy was a surprise guest on the day and, moments after sitting down once he’d made his speech, there was an explosion metres away. He was not hurt, but the rally’s organisers have claimed he was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/world/africa/ethiopia-explosion-abiy.html">the main target</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation Africa spoke to Ethiopian scholar Mohammed Girma to analyse the impact of the attack.</em></p>
<p><strong>Was this an unprecedented moment in Ethiopia’s history?</strong></p>
<p>The attempted assassination on a national leader isn’t entirely new to Ethiopia. There was, at least, one such attempt in 1976 targeting <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=vCHtAAAAMAAJ&q=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&dq=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjDsK2ewu7bAhVLZlAKHTOkA_wQ6AEIKzAA">Mengistu Hailemariam</a>, a former leader who now lives in Zimbabwe as a fugitive. He survived with slight injuries. </p>
<p>That attack was interpreted by many as the incident that triggered horrendous political violence known as <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5jcsAQAAMAAJ&q=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&dq=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjDsK2ewu7bAhVLZlAKHTOkA_wQ6AEIOzAD">“Red Terror”</a>, which <a href="https://study.com/academy/lesson/red-terror-in-ethiopia.html">left thousands</a> of young people dead. </p>
<p>But the scale and the audacity of this attack is unprecedented. It appears that those who planned it couldn’t deliver on the scale they might have wanted. Had they succeeded, the human cost and its political implications would have been immense. </p>
<p><strong>What is the current political context?</strong></p>
<p>The ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front which has been in power <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-strong-opposition-is-the-only-solution-to-dislodging-ethiopias-ruling-coalition-89698">for nearly 30 years</a>, is decaying. It lacks the political will to introduce fundamental <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/11/ethiopia-is-falling-apart/">reforms</a> which would address issues like endemic corruption, the incarceration of journalists and political opponents and widespread economic marginalisation. </p>
<p>These concerns precipitated protests from various segments of society and forced <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/15/ethiopia-prime-minister-hailemariam-desalegn-resigns-after-mass-protests">former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn to resign</a>. </p>
<p>Abiy emerged from within the ruling <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-survival-ruling-eprdf-180528082306152.html">party</a> amid this disarray. His message was markedly different. He spoke the language of the people and tapped into society’s aspirations and fears. While it was expected that he’d be a safe pair of hands for ordinary people as well as the ruling elites, nobody expected him to be as direct and decisive as he has turned out to be in his reform efforts. </p>
<p>These have met with resistance, particularly from the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, which is the dominant wing of the ruling coalition. It’s started to act as an <a href="https://www.africaintelligence.com/ion/corridors-of-power/2018/06/15/the-tplf-gives-abiy-ahmed-ali-a-rocky-political-ride,108313827-bre">opposition from within</a> to Abiy’s work. </p>
<p>The rally at which the attack occurred was called to disentangle Abiy from the establishment and give him a unambiguous mandate to run the country. </p>
<p>People are enchanted with his message of “medemer”, or togetherness, as opposed to ethnic compartmentalisation. They support his systematic and nonviolent removal of corrupt leaders who thrived on spreading fear and using violence to cling to power. </p>
<p><strong>The Prime Minister immediately laid blame on anti-peace forces. Who is he referring to and what is their agenda?</strong></p>
<p>It’s not entirely clear who he had in mind. There are all sorts of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c10e0ae8-752e-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601">theories swirling around</a>. It’s not only unfruitful, but also dangerous, to point fingers at this or that entity. It would be wise to wait until justice runs its course. </p>
<p>However, one can say with some level of justification that whoever made this attempt must have felt threatened by Abiy’s popularity, message and reform efforts. Ethiopians are accustomed to fearing their leaders. But Abiy is loved. </p>
<p>Instead of deploying the usual tactics of violence, he has used a message of love and togetherness. As a result, he has garnered support across ethnic, religious and ideological boundaries. Even in the aftermath of the explosions, the message coming out of his office was one of <a href="https://twitter.com/fitsumaregaa/status/1010400524460613633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.opride.com%2F2018%2F06%2F23%2Flive-blog-mass-rally-in-support-of-ethiopias-new-pm-abiy-ahmed-reforms%2F">love, healing and solidarity</a>, not revenge.</p>
<p>Regardless of who the “anti-peace forces” might be, their agenda seems to be to subvert the new rhetoric and render Ethiopia ungovernable.</p>
<p><strong>What does this attack say about Abiy’s authority and the country’s stability?</strong></p>
<p>The implications can be looked at in two different ways. On the one hand, overwhelming support for what he’s doing lessens the chances of the “anti-peace” forces using the people to instigate a major conflict. On the other, the attack shows that such anti-peace elements still carry enough venom to disrupt Abiy’s narrative and hamper the progress of his reform. </p>
<p><strong>What happens next?</strong></p>
<p>Under Abiy’s leadership Ethiopia has taken a few steps forward. He has started the right conversation, injected hope and managed to change the national mood. He has made some <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/05/27/ethiopia-pm-hints-of-visa-free-entry-for-all-africans/">clever diplomatic moves</a>, and he is not afraid to make bold and even edgy decisions. </p>
<p>But the country isn’t out of woods yet. Social cohesion and economy are his biggest challenges. </p>
<p>The ramifications of the latest violence are still unknown. The investigation might open a can of worms and, if poorly handled, might deepen suspicion between dissenting groups. The support and the understanding of the masses are of critical importance for Abiy to steer the country out of turbulence. </p>
<p>There is also good reason to question whether or not he is producing supporters who would see him as a cult hero rather than someone who can be criticised, questioned and held to account when he crosses the line.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammed Girma is affiliated with British and Foreign Bible Society. </span></em></p>The grenade attack shows that opponents are threatened by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s progress.Mohammed Girma, Visiting Lecturer at London School of Theology and Research associate, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.