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Articles on Polling

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A prominent GOP poll said Democratic U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire would lose her re-election bid to a Republican. Hassan won by 9 percentage points. AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Some midterm polls were on-target – but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging

Polling for the 2022 midterms was more accurate than the dramatically wrong predictions of 2016 and 2020, leading one pollster to boast, ‘The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.’
A young voter fills out her ballot at a polling site in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Nov. 8, 2022. Public polling underestimated the strength of the youth vote in the recent U.S. midterms. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Young U.S. voters reduced the ‘Red Wave’ to a ‘Pink Splash’ in the midterm elections — why didn’t polls predict it?

The U.S. midterms revealed a generational shift away from youth voter apathy. The apathetic, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion using outdated methods.
In Maine’s 2020 Senate race, not one poll showed the GOP incumbent, Susan Collins, in the lead. But she trounced her Democratic challenger by 9 points. AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

With memories of embarrassments still fresh, election pollsters face big tests in 2022 midterm elections

Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.

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