tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/proportional-representation-7028/articlesProportional representation – The Conversation2024-02-28T12:32:11Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236892024-02-28T12:32:11Z2024-02-28T12:32:11ZGOP primary elections use flawed math to pick nominees<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578350/original/file-20240227-18-rw2ozs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C31%2C5311%2C3357&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How people vote isn't always reflected in how elections are decided.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/map-made-of-stickman-figure-with-patriotic-royalty-free-illustration/1281610356">bamlou/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Republicans around the country are picking a nominee to run for president. However, their process – designed and run by the party, not government officials – is a mess of flawed mathematics that can end up delivering a result that’s in conflict with the person most voters actually support.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://ivolic.wellesley.edu/">mathematics professor</a> and co-founder of the <a href="https://mathematics-democracy-institute.org/">Institute for Mathematics and Democracy</a>, I watched this contradictory process play out in 2016, shaping the political landscape ever since. Elements of it are visible again in 2024.</p>
<p>There are many ways bad mathematics interferes with our democracy, as I explain in my forthcoming book, “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691248806/making-democracy-count">Making Democracy Count: How Mathematics Improves Voting, Electoral Maps, and Representation</a>.” Here’s how the Republican primaries can manage to defy democratic ideals and deliver a nominee even though most voters prefer someone else:</p>
<h2>Splitting votes among many candidates</h2>
<p>In 2016, former President Donald Trump became the Republican choice, having <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R">won 44.9% of the votes</a> cast in primaries. That was nearly twice the share of votes won by the runner-up, Ted Cruz, who had 25.1% of the primary votes.</p>
<p>But during primary season, <a href="https://fairvote.org/new_polls_show_that_gop_split_vote_problem_continues/">polls suggested</a> that in head-to-head primaries, Trump would have lost not only to Cruz, but also to <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R">third-place Republican finisher John Kasich</a> and Marco Rubio, who placed fourth.</p>
<p>In other words, a majority of Republican voters preferred Cruz, Kasich and Rubio to Trump. But none of the three took the lead because of the party’s nomination system, which assigned <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R">Trump 58.3% of the delegates</a> at the Republican National Convention – the formal process by which the nominee is selected.</p>
<h2>An attempt at proportional representation</h2>
<p>The Republican Party says its primaries are meant to <a href="https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/docs/Rules_Of_The_Republican_Party.pdf">encourage proportional assignment</a> of delegates to candidates. So if a candidate wins, say, 40% of the votes, she should win as close to 40% of the delegates as possible. </p>
<p>This sounds reasonable, and it aligns with most people’s notion of fairness. For primaries taking place before March 15, the Republican Party mandates proportional allocation, but with lots of exceptions that can effectively turn the election into winner-take-all or winner-take-most. After March 15, the exceptions become the norm, pulling the outcome further from proportional representation.</p>
<p>The Democratic Party has a more centralized system and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024">mandates proportionality</a> for all its primaries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People stand at tables and raise their arms." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578351/original/file-20240227-24-2cce3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crowd members cheer at the 2020 Republican National Convention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2020RNC/b1f38c3935c94ade99728f71b15da1fd/photo">Travis Dove/The New York Times via AP, Pool</a></span>
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<h2>Allocation of delegates</h2>
<p>The process begins with the <a href="https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/media/documents/2020_RNC_Call_of_the_Convention_1575665975.pdf">states each receiving a number of delegates</a> that will later be assigned to candidates.</p>
<p>Each state gets 10 at-large delegates, and three delegates for each congressional district it contains. A state can also get additional delegates based on how Republican it is – depending on whether its people voted for a Republican presidential candidate in the previous general election, and on how much of its legislature is Republican.</p>
<p>These allocations can result in inequities. For instance, Massachusetts and Utah, two of the states voting on Super Tuesday, both get 40 delegates. That’s because Massachusetts has more congressional districts, while Utah is more Republican. </p>
<p>But Utah has roughly 960,000 <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_affiliations_of_registered_voters">registered Republican voters</a>, and Massachusetts has about 440,000. That means for any candidate to get a Utah delegate would require support from at least twice as many voters as that candidate would need to get a Massachusetts delegate.</p>
<h2>Assigning delegates to candidates</h2>
<p>There are as many as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-24954-9">seven different proportional methods</a> used to assign states’ at-large delegates, each with its own mathematical problems. And in 21 states, the delegates allocated because of each congressional district are also assigned by the same methods as the at-large delegates.</p>
<p>In other states, the three delegates in each congressional district are all allocated to the winner in that district. And in still other states, the district delegates are allocated with a 2-1 split: The top vote-getter in the district receives two delegates and the runner-up receives one.</p>
<p>Math makes clear that these methods are not proportional representation: Imagine that three candidates in a close race get 33.5%, 33.3% and 33.2% of the votes, respectively. The winner-take-all method would give all three delegates to the top scorer. And in the 2-1 split, the last-place candidate would get nothing. </p>
<p>In some states, the party’s rules also allow the method of counting to vary depending on how dominant a candidate’s win is. For instance, <a href="https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/08/california-primary-new-state-party-rules-could-accelerate-trump-nomination/72400693007/">California is the latest state to adopt the practice</a> in which a candidate who wins more than half the statewide vote gets all of the state’s delegates.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four people stand behind lecterns on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578358/original/file-20240227-24-2mcqmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican candidates for president appear at a debate in Milwaukee in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024Debate/876ea8c85d5048fea034a652dd1348bc/photo">AP Photo/Morry Gash</a></span>
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<h2>Two candidates doesn’t make the math clearer</h2>
<p>The GOP’s system offers other significant advantages to winners as well. </p>
<p>Suppose a state has eight districts with three delegates apiece and in each, Candidate Alice gets 51% of the votes and Candidate Bob gets 49%. If the allocation was 2-1, Alice would get 16 delegates and Bob would get eight.</p>
<p>Then there are the 10 at-large delegates the party assigns to each state. Most proportional methods would split these delegates evenly, with five given to each candidate. That would deliver a grand total for Alice of 21 delegates, and 13 for Bob.</p>
<p>In that situation, Alice would get 51% of the votes but 62% of the delegates. This “winner’s bonus” was evident in many states Trump won in the 2016 primary, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegates_from_Alabama,_2016">such as Alabama</a>, where his vote share was 43% but he collected 72% of the delegates. In the 2020 Democratic primary races, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Major_candidates">Joe Biden won 51.6% of the votes</a> and 68% of the delegates overall.</p>
<p>Winner-take-all is problematic too. Consider Utah and Massachusetts again. If a candidate won Utah by a landslide, and another narrowly won in Massachusetts, they would both get 40 delegates – based on vastly different numbers of actual votes cast by supporters.</p>
<h2>An additional barrier</h2>
<p>Most states also require candidates to get a certain percentage of voter support before being assigned any delegates at all. Under the Republican rules, some states set this bar as high as 20%. The Democratic Party mandates a 15% threshold for every state. </p>
<p>These thresholds are biased toward more popular candidates and can even cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-018-0608-3">mathematically counterintuitive delegate allocations</a>.</p>
<p>The combination of winner-take-all and complicated threshold structures is where all hope of proportionality and fairness vanishes. For example, in 2016, Trump won all of South Carolina’s 50 delegates by <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegates_from_South_Carolina,_2016#South_Carolina_primary_results">garnering 33% of the votes</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegates_from_Florida,_2016#Florida_primary_results">all of Florida’s 99 delegates</a> with 46% of the votes.</p>
<p>This phenomenon is occurring again in this cycle: In the 2024 South Carolina primary, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/24/us/elections/results-south-carolina-republican-primary.html">Trump won 60% of the vote</a> but landed 94% of the state’s delegates. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman stands on a stage holding a microphone in front of a U.S. flag and the South Carolina state flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578360/original/file-20240227-22-p8xqbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nikki Haley got 40% of the primary vote in her home state of South Carolina, but only 4% of the state’s Republican delegates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024MichiganWhattoWatch/9fc716699bf2449aa70ab90ee7956350/photo">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
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<h2>Picking a single winner</h2>
<p>Ultimately, the party delegate system has to arrive at a single winner. Somehow, one candidate must win a majority of the delegate votes that are cast at the summer convention. For this year’s Republican nomination, this is 1,215 of the 2,429 delegates. </p>
<p>Even if the delegate apportionment reflected Republican voters’ preferences in perfect proportion, the system has yet another inherent flaw. Suppose the process gave 35% of the delegates to one candidate, 30% to another, 20% to a third, and then split the remaining 15% between several others. Who should win the nomination?</p>
<p>In a sequential process often called a “<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Brokered_conventions">brokered convention</a>,” various candidates who recognize they cannot win the nomination free their delegates to vote for others. As its name suggests, this method more closely resembles a business deal than a fair election – and it’s very far from the eyes of the voters and even more distant from the rigor of mathematics.</p>
<p>There is no unbiased way to pick a single nominee using the GOP’s current primary structure. Voters are reluctant to risk wasting their votes by supporting less popular candidates. Candidates who appear weaker exit races earlier because they don’t think they can clear the hurdles in enough states. As a result, candidates with small but committed followings can rise to the top – even if most people prefer someone else.</p>
<h2>Some alternatives</h2>
<p>Math does offer some options for possible solutions that eliminate the flaws of winner-take-all, reduce divisiveness, ensure that each voter has an equal say, and enact the will of a majority.</p>
<p>One way could be using <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ranked-choice-voting-a-political-scientist-explains-165055">ranked-choice voting</a>, in which people rank all the candidates in their order of preference. A system that would be mathematically most representative and inclusive would involve nonpartisan primaries with some number of top vote-getters advancing to the general election. Both would be held with ranked-choice voting. Alaska and <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/state-primary-election-types">several other states</a> use this method in state elections, but not for the presidential race.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223689/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ismar Volić does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are many ways bad mathematics interferes with our democracy. Assigning delegates is just one example.Ismar Volić, Professor of Mathematics, Director of Institute for Mathematics and Democracy, Wellesley CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144522023-09-28T17:36:00Z2023-09-28T17:36:00ZSlovakia may be about to elect a government which plans to halt aid to Kyiv<p>Slovakians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/25/slovakian-elections-qa-country-votes-after-four-pms-in-five-years#:%7E:text=However%2C%20to%20be%20allocated%20parliamentary,with%20four%20members%20or%20more.">head to the polls</a> on September 30 to elect a new parliament. The result will not only have a huge impact on the domestic affairs of this small central European state but also, beyond its borders, on the balance of power in Europe and the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>After the outbreak of the illegal Russian war in Ukraine, Slovakia was one of the first states to <a href="https://www.mzv.sk/en/web/en/slovakia/blog/slovakia-understands-what-is-at-stake-in-the-war-in-ukraine">offer support</a> to its neighbour. Slovakians warmly welcomed <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/slovakia/slovakia-demonstrates-leadership-support-ukrainians-need-ministry-reintegration-temporary-occupied-territories">Ukrainian refugees</a> and its coalition governments have staunchly maintained <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-heger-scholz-ukraine-eu-membership-candidate/">political</a>, <a href="https://www.mzv.sk/en/web/en/slovakia/blog/slovakia-understands-what-is-at-stake-in-the-war-in-ukraine">economic</a> and <a href="https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/slovakia-approves-a-new-package-of-military-aid-to-ukraine/">military</a> aid for Kyiv. </p>
<p>But this could very well change after the election. There are 25 political parties <a href="https://www.volbysr.sk/sk/politicke_strany.html">fielding candidates</a> and, based on the two latest polls, <a href="https://volby.sme.sk/pref/1/politicke-strany/p/focus/2023-09-26">eight</a> or <a href="https://joj24.noviny.sk/volby/parlamentne-volby-2023/joj24-volebna-encyklopedia-slovenska/838980-exkluzivny-prieskum-agentury-ako-pre-tv-joj-24-progresivci-tesne-predbehli-smer-sme-pred-volebnym-patom?_gl=1*afwxdi*_ga*MTEyODk0MTMzNy4xNjk1ODExNDYw*_ga_RHR53MHYFE*MTY5NTgxMTQ2MC4xLjEuMTY5NTgxMTU1OC4wLjAuMA">nine</a> of them are likely to pass the threshold of 5% support required to be allocated seats in the country’s system of proportional representation. </p>
<p>This always results in coalition governments and – like anywhere else with this system – comes with inbuilt insecurity as coalition parties <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/slovak-coalition-government-collapses-after-losing-no-confidence-vote-in-parliament">fall out and collapse</a>. Hence Saturday’s election, which comes after only three years of a four-year term in which there have been three different prime ministers. </p>
<p>The party thought likely to win the most votes is Progressive Slovakia (PS), led by Michal Šimečka, a vice-president of the European parliament. Opinion polls suggest that PS, at 18%, has a slight lead over the Smer-SSD (Smer) party (17.7%), led by three-times former prime minister Robert Fico, who is outspoken in his support for Russia and has said he would halt all military aid to Ukraine, should he form a government.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1707304471011701182"}"></div></p>
<p>The key for both sides is being able to put together a stable enough coalition to form government, and <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/slovakias-elections-big-decisions-but-not-necessarily-decisive/">here’s where it gets complicated</a>. </p>
<h2>Pro-Kyiv bloc</h2>
<p>When it comes to the war in Ukraine, the pro-Kyiv bloc is a coalition of parties with very different ideologies which could find it hard to form a stable government. Two parties that were previously part of pro-Ukraine coalitions, the Democrats, led by former prime minister <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-caretaker-prime-minister-eduard-heger-quit-momentum-pro-russia-rival-robert-fico/">Eduard Heger</a>, and We Are Family, led by Boris Kollar, are <a href="https://volby.sme.sk/pref/1/politicke-strany/p/focus/2023-09-26">not expected</a> to win enough votes to gain representation in the new parliament.</p>
<p>Other pro-Ukraine parties include the liberal centre-right Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), which is polling at roughly 7.3% according to the <a href="https://joj24.noviny.sk/volby/parlamentne-volby-2023/joj24-volebna-encyklopedia-slovenska/838980-exkluzivny-prieskum-agentury-ako-pre-tv-joj-24-progresivci-tesne-predbehli-smer-sme-pred-volebnym-patom?_gl=1*afwxdi*_ga*MTEyODk0MTMzNy4xNjk1ODExNDYw*_ga_RHR53MHYFE*MTY5NTgxMTQ2MC4xLjEuMTY5NTgxMTU1OC4wLjAuMA..">latest numbers</a>, and the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH), whose leader, Milan Majersky, recently caused controversy by referring to what he called LGBTQ+ “ideology” as a <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/epp-backs-slovak-party-despite-leaders-anti%E2%80%90lgbt-remarks">“scourge” and a “plague”</a>. KDH is polling at 6.1%. </p>
<p>Another pro-Ukrainian party is Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (Olano), a populist centre-right, anti-establishment party which is polling at 9.4%. Olano is led by Igor Matovic, the prime minister from 2020 to 2021 who was forced to resign over his <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/04/slovakia-igor-matovic-resignation-coronavirus-pandemic-corruption/#:%7E:text=But%20by%20this%20April%2C%20Matovic,handling%20of%20the%20coronavirus%20pandemic.">handling of the COVID crisis</a>, when he bought Russia’s Sputnik vaccine against the wishes of his coalition partners. </p>
<p>So, these are the main parties that PS will be looking to deal with should it get the chance to form a coalition – and depending on which pass the threshold to gain seats in the new parliament. But the prospects of PS having the numbers to form a working coalition are far from certain as the campaign goes into its final day. </p>
<h2>Anti-Ukraine bloc</h2>
<p>Reflecting the growing sentiment among the Slovak population that favours Moscow, and even blames Ukraine for the outbreak of war, is a group of parties led by the centre-left populist party Smer.</p>
<p>Smer and its leader, Fico, supports Slovakia’s membership of the EU and Nato, but is opposed to allowing Ukraine to join either alliance. The party has said it would halt economic and military support to Ukraine. Fico’s party is supported in this position by the Slovak National Party (SNS), a right-wing, Eurosceptic, Russophilic party whose leader, Andrej Danko, is a <a href="http://duma.gov.ru/en/news/45516/">strong advocate of Moscow</a>. SNS is currently polling at 6%.</p>
<p>To form a government, Smer and SNS would also need to gain support from Republic (5.4%), an extremist, far-right party which <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/28/europe/slovakia-election-russia-supporter-intl-cmd/index.html">blames</a> “Nato’s expansion policy” and Kyiv’s “aggression towards the Russian minority in eastern Ukraine” for the war. </p>
<p>The kingmaker in all this may be Voice - Social Democracy (Hlas), a centre-left, pro-EU, pro-Nato party formed by a group of breakaway MPs from Smer and led by another former prime minister, Peter Pellegrini, who has also said he would <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/slovak-firebrand-s-push-to-block-help-for-ukraine-hits-trouble?leadSource=uverify%20wall">halt military aid to Ukraine</a>. But Hlas, which is polling at 15%, is opposed to forming a coalition with <a href="https://strana-hlas.sk/dokument/deklaracia-hodnotove-principy-povolebnej-spoluprace/">extreme right-wing parties</a>.</p>
<h2>Danger signs for Kyiv</h2>
<p>As it stands, Slovakia may be the first country to change its policy and stop supporting Ukraine. But there are signs other countries could follow suit. Ukraine’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/25/ukraine-grain-poland-election/">recent row</a> with Poland over grain exports has increased the prospect of a far-right, pro-Russia party winning the elections in Poland in mid-October – which <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-pis-faces-far-right-challenge-over-ukraine-support-2023-09-19/">could halt military aid to Ukraine as well</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile in the US, the prospect of Donald Trump winning a second term in November 2024 and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/17/trump-ukraine-bartiromo/">stopping aid to Ukraine</a> is a distinct possibility. </p>
<p>This “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/ukraine-tries-to-keep-allies-close-as-war-fatigue-and-concerns-set-in.html">Ukraine fatigue</a>”, especially if it spreads to other countries, could not only protract the war, but ultimately lead to Ukraine’s failure on the battlefield.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214452/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Veronika Poniscjakova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Slovakia has steadfastly supported Ukraine in the war, but there are signs this may change after the election.Veronika Poniscjakova, Senior Teaching Fellow, Military Education, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133532023-09-14T01:33:07Z2023-09-14T01:33:07ZNZ election 2023: with a month to go, polls point to a right-wing coalition government<p>The New Zealand general election to be held in one month, on October 14, will be the country’s tenth under the mixed member proportional system (<a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>).</p>
<p>Voters have two votes: one for their party of choice, the other for their electorate’s member of parliament. There are 72 single-member seats, including seven seats for electors on the Māori roll.</p>
<p>Parties must win at least 5% of the total vote to gain seats in parliament. The threshold is waived if a party wins one of the electorate seats.</p>
<p>The 48 “list” seats are used to ensure proportionality, so that parties that win many single-member seats win few list seats. It is the party vote that matters most as it determines the number of seats a party is entitled to. </p>
<p>Election for single-member seats is by a <a href="https://www.dia.govt.nz/diawebsite.nsf/wpg_URL/Resource-material-STV-Information-More-about-FPP?OpenDocument">first-past-the-post</a> system. There can be more than 120 MPs (an “overhang”) if a party wins more single-member seats than its total entitlement given its party vote. An overhang last occurred at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_New_Zealand_general_election">2014 election</a>.</p>
<h2>Coalitions and ‘kingmakers’</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election">current polls</a>, National, Labour, ACT and the Greens are well clear of the 5% threshold. The Māori party (also known as Te Pāti Māori) is expected to win Māori-roll single-member seats and will qualify for parliamentary representation even if its party vote is below 5%.</p>
<p>In the past, the populist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_First">New Zealand First</a> party has occasionally been the “kingmaker” and allied with both Labour and National governments. At the 2020 election, its party vote fell below the 5% threshold and it didn’t win any electorate seats, so was wiped out of parliament. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-election-christopher-luxons-real-test-could-come-from-his-right-not-the-left-209393">After the election, Christopher Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left</a>
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<p>Some recent polls have New Zealand First above 5% and it’s unclear whether it will win representation after the election.</p>
<p>In a proportional representation system, we need to account for likely coalitions. The right coalition consists of National and ACT, while the left coalition consists of Labour, the Greens and Māori. </p>
<p>I am not counting New Zealand First towards either coalition as it’s unclear whether they will win representation. But the Labour Party has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496678/instability-and-chaos-labour-rules-out-a-partnership-with-nz-first">ruled out working with New Zealand First</a> in coalition. No other parties are likely to win representation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-read-the-political-polls-10-things-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-the-nz-election-208738">How to read the political polls: 10 things you need to know ahead of the NZ election</a>
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<h2>Clear trend to the right</h2>
<p>The graph below shows the right coalition’s lead or deficit over the left coalition as estimated by all New Zealand pollsters that have released at least two polls since March.</p>
<p>The election date is shown on the graph. I started this chart in March as it was shortly after Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as Labour leader and prime minister in January.</p>
<p>The graph has poll results and a trend line for every pollster. It is similar to a graph I have been using for <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872">Australian polls</a> on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, but uses the midpoint of polls’ fieldwork periods, not the endpoint. This is because Morgan’s New Zealand polls are taken over a whole month.</p>
<p>The pollster used by Television New Zealand’s 1News changed its name from <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/659466526/July-2023-1-NEWS-Verian-Poll-Report-No-Supplementary-Questions-Version-002#">Kantar Public to Verian</a> this year. I have used “Verian/Kantar” to designate this pollster.</p>
<p>From March to June, polls tended to have the left coalition ahead, but there has been a surge to the right in the past two months. The trend lines for all pollsters now have the right ahead. </p>
<p>The Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union has been the right’s best poll, while Talbot Mills has been the left’s best.</p>
<p>The six most recent polls show an 8.5-point lead for the right in Morgan, a 1.6-point lead in Talbot Mills, a 7.2-point lead in Curia, an 8.8-point lead in Reid Research, a 4.4-point lead in Essential and an 8-point lead in Verian/Kantar. The Talbot Mills poll looks like a left-favouring outlier.</p>
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<h2>Reversal of fortune for Labour</h2>
<p>With the right ahead in recent polls, the only realistic hope for the left would be that New Zealand First made it past the 5% threshold, which could give Labour, the Greens, Māori and New Zealand First enough seats to deny National and ACT a combined majority.</p>
<p>While Labour has ruled out working with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First were in a coalition government for the 2017–2020 term. If New Zealand First were again in a kingmaker role after the election, it’s plausible Labour would change its mind and make Peters an offer.</p>
<p>Essential and Talbot Mills both have New Zealand First above the 5% threshold and don’t have the right coalition ahead by enough to avoid needing it to form a government. </p>
<p>But in the other four most recent polls, the right is ahead by enough to form a government without New Zealand First, even if it makes the threshold.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-labour-national-consensus-on-family-support-means-the-election-wont-change-much-for-nzs-poorest-households-212450">The Labour-National consensus on family support means the election won’t change much for NZ’s poorest households</a>
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<p>Why has there been a recent surge to the right? I believe Hipkins’ honeymoon after he replaced Ardern has worn off. There have been ministerial scandals, including the July 24 resignation of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/24/kiri-allan-resigns-car-crash-new-zealand-justice-minister">Labour MP Kiri Allan</a> as justice minister after being charged with careless driving and refusing to accompany a police officer after a crash.</p>
<p>High inflation and cost-of-living stress will also be a contributor. <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/consumers-price-index-june-2023-quarter/">Inflation was 1.1%</a> in the June quarter, down slightly from 1.2% in March, and well below the peak of 2.2% in September 2022. </p>
<p>A loss for Labour would be a big reversal from its <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Zealand_general_election">landslide victory</a> at the 2020 election, in which the party won a one-party majority with 65 of the 120 seats. This was the first time since the current electoral system replaced first past the post in 1996 that a single party had won a parliamentary majority. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s success at keeping COVID out, as well as <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300137917/election-2020-the-complete-disarray-of-nationals-campaign-that-led-to-electoral-slaughter">leadership turmoil</a> within the National Party, likely contributed to that Labour victory. The 2023 election will not see the same pattern repeated on either the left or right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2121312023-08-30T12:40:58Z2023-08-30T12:40:58ZZimbabwe’s election was a fight between men – women are sidelined in politics despite quotas<p>Zimbabwe’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65775996">2023 harmonised elections</a> have largely been depicted as a battle between the two “Big Men” – President <a href="https://apnews.com/article/zimbabwe-elections-emerson-mnangagwa-president-crocodile-56668e87d9459980b9d38b57175c31ce">Emmerson Mnangagwa</a> of the ruling Zanu-PF and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/who-is-nelson-chamisa-can-he-win-zimbabwes-election-2023-08-23/">Nelson Chamisa</a> of the leading opposition party, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC). Significant media attention focused on the <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/315335/zimbabwe-police-ban-92-ccc-opposition-party-campaign-rallies/">uneven playing field</a> between the ruling party and the opposition.</p>
<p>The election results announced on the 26 August are <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-embassy-joins-others-voicing-concern-about-zimbabwe-election/7242392.html">being disputed</a> due to <a href="https://www.sadc.int/slide-item/sadc-electoral-observation-mission-2023-harmonised-elections-zimbabwe-launched">reports</a> of delayed voting, voter intimidation and ballot paper irregularities. <a href="https://www.zec.org.zw/download-category/2023-presidential-elections-results/">Mnangagwa</a> has been announced as the official winner of the presidential poll, but the CCC has <a href="https://twitter.com/ccczimbabwe/status/1695576909839487050?s=46&t=knTMoeo4WZETacMv4PIpAw">rejected these results</a>. </p>
<p>Another concern distinct to this election was the stark decline in the number of women candidates nominated by the main political parties for direct election. </p>
<p>We are working on a three year research <a href="https://nai.uu.se/research-and-policy-advice/project/making-politics-safer---gendered-violence-and-electoral-temporalities-in-africa.html">project</a> with a focus on the representation of women in politics in Ghana, Kenya and Zimbabwe as well as gendered electoral violence. This project seeks to explore barriers to women’s participation in politics in Africa and pathways forward, initially researched in the book <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/gendered-institutions-and-womens-political-representation-in-africa-9781913441210/">Gendered Institutions and Women’s Political Representation in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Zimbabwe ranks low in measures of gender parity in southern Africa. South Africa, Namibia and Mozambique boast <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SG.GEN.PARL.ZS">46%, 44% and 42% women’s participation</a> in parliament, respectively. Zimbabwe’s political parties need to field more women for direct election, outside the confines of the quota, in order to reach gender parity. </p>
<h2>Gender quota</h2>
<p>Zimbabwe’s <a href="https://www.veritaszim.net/sites/veritas_d/files/Constitution%20Updated%20to%202021.pdf">constitution in 2013</a> introduced a gender quota to ensure the equitable representation of women in parliament. Zimbabwe’s parliament is composed of a National Assembly (lower house) and a Senate (upper house). The <a href="https://www.veritaszim.net/sites/veritas_d/files/Constitution%20Updated%20to%202021.pdf">quota requires</a> that the lower house reserve 60 of its 270 seats (22%) for women representatives. The upper house is to appoint 60 of its 80 senators from a list that alternates between female and male candidates, called the “zebra-list”. </p>
<p>The purpose of the quota is to push the country towards gender parity – 50/50 female/male representation – as directed by the <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/protocol-african-charter-human-and-peoples-rights-rights-women-africa">2003 Maputo Protocol</a> and the Southern African Development Community’s 2008 <a href="https://www.sadc.int/sites/default/files/2021-08/Protocol_on_Gender_and_Development_2008.pdf">Protocol on Gender and Development</a>.</p>
<p>However, women’s representation in Zimbabwe’s parliament has declined since 2013, in spite of the quota. <a href="https://wpp-africa.net/sites/default/files/2021-05/English%20Policy%20brief%20on%20women%20participation%20in%20politics%20in%20Zimbabwe.pdf">In 2013</a> women made up 33% of the National Assembly and 48% of the Senate. Only 12% of these women were elected directly. In <a href="https://wpp-africa.net/sites/default/files/2021-05/English%20Policy%20brief%20on%20women%20participation%20in%20politics%20in%20Zimbabwe.pdf">2018</a> the numbers in the National Assembly and Senate fell to 31% and 44%, respectively. </p>
<p>There was a significant decline in the number of women nominated to contest the 2023 elections. Only 68 (11%) of 633 aspiring parliamentarians for direct election were women. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/women-stand-up-comedians-in-zimbabwe-talk-about-sex-and-the-patriarchy-156052">Women stand-up comedians in Zimbabwe talk about sex - and the patriarchy</a>
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<p>In spite of these challenges, <a href="https://www.zec.org.zw/download-category/national_assembly/">23 women were elected into parliament</a> (against 26 in <a href="https://www.womenpoliticalleaders.org/women-make-up-more-than-one-third-of-zimbabwe-s-new-parliament-un-women-1447/">2013</a> and 25 in <a href="https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/gender-quotas/country-view/312/35">2018</a>). The 23 newly elected women will be added to the 60 women appointed through the quota, making a total of 83, or 30.7% representation of women, in the lower house. After the appointment of senators, as <a href="https://www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/laws/en/zw/zw038en.pdf#page=52">stipulated by the constitution</a>, the number of women in the full parliament will increase. Though commendable, this still places Zimbabwe below average within the region. </p>
<p>These gains may fail to go beyond the 31% representation achieved in <a href="https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/gender-quotas/country-view/312/35">2018</a>. The women in the National Assembly will still be less than 50% of parliamentarians and have limited decision making powers. Moreover, there is little indication of the substantive impact these women will have to empower Zimbabwean women, considering their limited numbers. The country’s record of democratic deficits is another important challenge. </p>
<p>The newly elected women MPs may have limited room for manoeuvre to promote gender equality in this political context. But they are still important as decision makers, legislators and role models for other women to enter politics. </p>
<h2>Looking beyond the quota</h2>
<p>A gendered audit of the <a href="https://www.zec.org.zw/download/government-gazette-extraordinary-vol-64-30-06-2023-electoral-act-2/">published list of nominated candidates</a> for direct elections reveals that Zimbabwe’s political parties did not field enough women to reach gender parity in 2023. </p>
<p>Data shows that 633 registered candidates contested 210 seats through direct election. Of these candidates only 68 were women. That is, only 11% of aspiring parliamentarians for direct election were women. Of these 68, Zanu-PF fielded 23 women (34%), the CCC fielded 20 (29%), and the remaining 25 women were from small minority parties (27%) and independent candidates (10%).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/animal-farm-has-been-translated-into-shona-why-a-group-of-zimbabwean-writers-undertook-the-task-206966">Animal Farm has been translated into Shona – why a group of Zimbabwean writers undertook the task</a>
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<p>Harare and Bulawayo provinces nominated the highest number of women candidates for election. In Mashonaland Central only one woman was nominated across 18 constituencies. Only two women were nominated in Matebeleland South across 12 constituencies.</p>
<p>It is important to ask why political parties are not fielding more women for direct election. And what this means for the future of representative politics in Zimbabwe. </p>
<h2>Gender bias within political parties</h2>
<p>The data above indicates a bias against woman candidates that permeates across political parties. Apart from the women nominated through the obligations of the quota, neither the CCC nor Zanu-PF fielded enough women to make gender parity a reality in the 2023 elections. </p>
<p>The active exclusion of women from politics is driven by gendered prejudices. These are informed by social, cultural and religious beliefs <a href="https://munin.uit.no/handle/10037/29600">rooted in patriarchal values </a> that view women as inherently weak and untrustworthy. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.zimbabwesituation.com/news/women-bear-brunt-of-political-violence/">threat and use of violence against women candidates</a> continues to be used to coerce and discourage women from contesting elections. As argued by Zimbabwean scholars <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0021909620986576?journalCode=jasa">Sandra Bhatasara and Manase Chiweshe</a>, </p>
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<p>patriarchy, intertwined with the increase in militarised masculinities, is producing exclusion with limited spaces for women’s participation. </p>
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<p>A negative perception is also linked to “quota women” as they were not elected by “the people”. These women are often subjected to <a href="https://core.ac.uk/reader/188770530">elite patriarchal bargaining</a>. They primarily serve the needs of their party, rather than representing Zimbabwean women.</p>
<h2>Gatekeeping</h2>
<p>The presence of a gender quota system provides a facade of progress. This conceals the stark reality that neither the CCC nor Zanu-PF is committed to increasing women’s representation outside the confines of the quota. Political parties function as “election gatekeepers”. They determine the level of women’s inclusion in representative politics, outside the quota system.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-informal-sector-organisations-in-zimbabwe-shape-notions-of-citizenship-180455">How informal sector organisations in Zimbabwe shape notions of citizenship</a>
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<p>The number of women elected indicates that, unlike in <a href="https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/gender-quotas/country-view/312/35">past elections</a>, Zimbabweans seem more willing to vote for women representatives. Political parties should build on these small gains and nominate more women for elections. This will allow the country to move closer to the goals of gender parity, gender equality and democratic plurality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Højlund Madsen is a project leader for the project 'Making Politics Safer - Gendered Violence and Electoral Temporalities in Africa' funded by the Swedish Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shingirai Mtero works for the Nordic Africa Institute on the project Making Politics Safer. This project receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. </span></em></p>Women’s representation in Zimbabwe’s parliament has declined in spite of a quota imposed in 2013.Diana Højlund Madsen, Senior Gender Researcher, Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, Sweden, The Nordic Africa InstituteShingirai Mtero, Postdoctoral Researcher, The Nordic Africa InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071092023-06-06T18:45:06Z2023-06-06T18:45:06ZExtending the term of parliament isn’t a terrible idea – it’s just one NZ has rejected twice already<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530265/original/file-20230606-19-cso4oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5982%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among a host of other recommendations, the <a href="https://electoralreview.govt.nz/">Independent Electoral Review</a> has proposed a referendum on extending the term of parliament to four years (from the current three). I’ll admit from the outset to being torn over the issue – the policy wonk in me says four, the election junkie says three.</p>
<p>But there’s another problem. Even if it is a sound idea, why hold a referendum when two past referendums have already rejected the proposal? Parliament could make the change alone, but MPs would likely face a backlash from the people wanting a referendum.</p>
<p>Those previous polls in 1967 and 1990 were both defeated by more than two-thirds majorities. Without a strong sense of a public desire for change, it’s hard to see a third result being any different. </p>
<p>In fact, one can almost hear the social media arguments against it already: “We have more important things to think about”, “They just want to keep their noses in the trough for longer”. Given current levels of distrust in politics, getting this across the line feels like a stretch.</p>
<p>But we’re still at the initial review stage. Public consultation is open until July 17, and a final report goes to the government in November, after the election. Public opinion could still shift in the meantime.</p>
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<h2>Time to govern</h2>
<p>There are some good practical reasons for extending the parliamentary term. For starters, by the time a new government is sworn in after an election, it’s often nearly Christmas and the nation shuts down and heads to the beach. </p>
<p>Ideally, a new government should get cracking with making policy and legislation in its first and second years. But in the third, anticipation of the next election changes the priorities and the focus.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lowering-new-zealands-voting-age-to-16-would-be-good-for-young-people-and-good-for-democracy-145008">Lowering New Zealand's voting age to 16 would be good for young people – and good for democracy</a>
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<p>To get a new law from a first cabinet paper to an act of parliament can take a couple of years – longer if there’s a lot of argument. So we’re not allowing much time for governments to really get things done. </p>
<p>When we account for the downtime before and after elections, they’re left with roughly two years of action out of every three. That slack could be reduced from roughly one-third to one-quarter if we moved to a four-year term.</p>
<p>On the other hand, many New Zealanders like having their say and holding their representatives to account through the ballot box. That’s not an argument for even shorter terms, but it is certainly a persuasive argument for the status quo.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">ACT’s David Seymour: reform ‘doesn’t solve a single urgent problem that New Zealanders face’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>So, if not through a referendum, how would we change the length of the parliamentary term? It is possible if parliament were to pass an amendment to the Electoral Act. That requires a 75% majority. </p>
<p>Given Labour’s Jacinda Ardern and National’s Judith Collins <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427374/political-leaders-favour-four-year-parliamentary-term-but-many-voters-not-so-keen">both supported the idea</a> before the 2020 election, that super-majority may well exist. That’s bolstered by the fact the <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/democracy">ACT Party also supports</a> a four-year term. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theyre-nice-to-me-im-nice-to-them-new-research-sheds-light-on-what-motivates-political-party-donors-in-new-zealand-185574">'They're nice to me, I'm nice to them': new research sheds light on what motivates political party donors in New Zealand</a>
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<p>And yet ACT leader David Seymour was <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/act-s-david-seymour-slams-electoral-recommendations-as-waste-of-everyone-s-time.html">quick to rubbish</a> the whole electoral review report. Before most people had even had a chance to read it, he’d declared it a “waste of everyone’s time” and “a major left-wing beat-up that doesn’t solve a single urgent problem that New Zealanders face”.</p>
<p>One explanation for such a negative reaction may lie in one of the report’s other recommendations, which is to eliminate the “coat-tailing” rule. This allows a party that wins at least one electorate seat to bring more MPs into the house, proportional to their party vote even if it’s below the 5% threshold. </p>
<p>The rule has undeniably created inequities. But ACT itself has benefited from it, notably in 2008, when it received just 3.65% of the party vote but took five seats on the back of winning the Epsom electorate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lobbying-regulations-are-vital-to-any-well-functioning-democracy-its-time-nz-got-some-203404">Lobbying regulations are vital to any well functioning democracy – it's time NZ got some</a>
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<h2>Self-interest and stalemate</h2>
<p>It’s perhaps inevitable that partisan political self-interest will emerge whenever these electoral reform proposals are made. Those who stand directly to win or lose become the loudest voices in the subsequent debate. The issue itself is politicised before the average voter has even taken in the details.</p>
<p>And, let’s remember, extending the parliamentary term is only one of more than 100 draft recommendations, including lowering the party vote threshold from 5% to 3.5%, and lowering the age of eligibility to vote from 18 to 16. The review process can mean difficult technical, legal and constitutional debates and proposals become bogged down in politics as usual.</p>
<p>Much like the <a href="https://elections.nz/assets/2012-report-of-the-Electoral-Commission-on-the-review-of-mmp.pdf">2012 Electoral Commission review</a>, from which no substantive recommendation for change was ever adopted (the present review repeats some of them), the unintended consequence may be another round of talk, but little action. If there’s a change of government after October’s election, this review is unlikely to go anywhere, other than into the archives. That would be a shame. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s electoral and parliamentary systems aren’t perfect, but no such system is. It may be asking a bit much at present, but some consensus about making them work more democratically and effectively would still be a good thing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A referendum on changing New Zealand’s parliamentary term to four years would be the third such exercise in under 60 years. Why would the outcome be any different this time?Grant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2048202023-05-30T14:18:10Z2023-05-30T14:18:10ZSouth Africa has changed its electoral law, but a much more serious overhaul is needed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527987/original/file-20230524-7504-ouwx5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hundreds of people stand in line to vote in South Africa's first democratic election in April 1994.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brooks Kraft LLC/Sygma via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African president Cyril Ramaphosa recently <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-signs-law-electoral-amendment-bill-2022-20-apr-2023-0000">signed into law</a> a change to the country’s electoral act to allow individuals to contest national and provincial elections independently of political parties. The change follows a <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">June 2020 constitutional court judgment</a> that the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act73of1998.pdf">Electoral Act</a> was unconstitutional because it didn’t allow independent candidates.</p>
<p>But in my view the change corrects one wrong by creating another, especially concerning the <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">principle of proportionality</a>. </p>
<p>For instance, it does not matter how many votes independent candidates get. Once they have reached the electoral threshold to secure a seat in the legislature, any extra votes would not count. For political parties, extra votes count towards securing another seat. (A trend that has emerged over the years has been that a party needs at least 40,000 to 45,000 votes to secure a seat in the national assembly.) </p>
<p>Thus various civil society formations have <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2023-04-19-strike-down-the-electoral-amendment-act-it-has-been-a-mess-from-the-beginning/">headed to court</a> to challenge the inherent injustice in the changed law. The existing electoral system is, by design since 1994, inherently biased towards a party system. </p>
<p>Based on <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/publications/journal-of-african-elections-special-issue-south-africas-2014-elections/">my work</a> on electoral democracy in South Africa, and <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/institutionalising_Democracy.html?id=c7ZRCwAAQBAJ">on the Electoral Commission of South Africa</a> (chapter 4), I think the legislated changes and much of the discussion about independent candidates miss the point. What’s needed is to completely overhaul the electoral system, lest it continues to churn out minute parties, resulting in intractable coalition politics. This is already in <a href="https://theconversation.com/multiparty-democracy-is-in-trouble-in-south-Africa-collapsing-coalitions-are-a-sure-sign-192966">evidence</a> through governance impasses in the country’s metropolises. </p>
<p>The constitutional court’s decision shows that electoral democracy is possible without parties. </p>
<p>The challenge is to design an electoral system that makes this possible. The court cannot prescribe this. It is a function that belongs to parliament. </p>
<h2>Barking up the wrong tree</h2>
<p>In much of the debate about electoral reform, the way local government representatives are elected is touted as a solution. But it is no better. Despite having an element of a constituency approach, which many supporters of electoral reforms want for provincial and national polls, is also driven by a party system. </p>
<p>That it is not also up for reform creates lopsidedness. This must be corrected, or South Africa could make the same mistake it made during the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa">negotiations to end apartheid</a> in the early 1990s. The transition from the apartheid-era local government system was handled separately from the national and provincial spheres. This is why the country has different systems of government at the local, provincial and national levels. And often this spawns <a href="https://theconversation.com/tumultuous-times-for-south-africa-as-it-enters-the-era-of-coalition-politics-64312">incoherence in the country’s system of governance</a>.</p>
<p>The fundamental problem is the country’s <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26798966">proportional representation system</a>. It is the reason coalition politics have <a href="https://theconversation.com/multiparty-democracy-is-in-trouble-in-south-africa-collapsing-coalitions-are-a-sure-sign-192966">become messy</a>.</p>
<p>Local government has been unstable since after the <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Downloadable-results/Detailed-results-data--2016-Municipal-Elections/">August 2016</a> local government elections saw the governing ANC lose major cities, heralding the era of coalition governments across the country. The unstable coalitions have had dire consequences for governance and service delivery. The fear is that this will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-votes-in-2024-could-a-coalition-between-major-parties-anc-and-eff-run-the-country-204141">repeated after the 2024 national elections</a>. </p>
<p>Because of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-voters-are-disillusioned-but-they-havent-found-an-alternative-to-the-anc-171239">loss of electoral support</a> over the years for the governing <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">African National Congress</a>, the poll is expected to result in the first national coalition government since democracy in 1994. This could also happen <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/234405/south-Africa-shock-poll-shows-anc-heading-towards-2024-coalition">in the provinces</a>. </p>
<h2>The proportional representation system</h2>
<p>In a proportional representation system, the allocation of seats in the legislatures for all three spheres of government is based on the electoral performance of parties. A winning party needs more than 50% of the votes to constitute a government. </p>
<p>Local government uses a ward system along with proportional representation. The total number of seats is halved, to be filled based on the electoral performance of the parties and candidates who get the most votes in their community. </p>
<p>Compared to proportional representation, a ward system is a <a href="https://jopa.wemasoft.co.za/public/portal/articles/published-article/id/1339">constituency electoral approach</a>, based on the <a href="https://dullahomarinstitute.org.za/multilevel-govt/local-government-bulletin/archives/volume-2-issue-2-june-2000/vol-2-no-2-2000-municipal-elections-where-pr-and-ward-representation-meet.pdf/view">first-past-the-post principle</a>. A candidate with the highest votes in a ward gets a seat in the municipal council as the community’s duly elected representative.</p>
<p>Many hail the mixed local government system as balancing party-list proportional representation with a constituency approach. They say it has <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/analysis/analysis-anton-van-dalsen-we-wont-see-any-reform-with-proposed-amendments-to-electoral-bill-20220916">lessons for the national and provincial spheres of government</a>. But this is <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/analysis/analysis-anton-van-dalsen-we-wont-see-any-reform-with-proposed-amendments-to-electoral-bill-20220916">only partially accurate</a>.</p>
<p>A ward system also allows candidates to contest elections as representatives of parties. This oddity does not end here. A vote for a ward candidate who represents a party adds to proportional voting of their party in allocating seats in the council. A ward system reinforces the party system. Its constituency disposition is a farce.</p>
<h2>Why proportional representation</h2>
<p>South Africa’s proportional representation came from noble intentions during the multiparty negotiation in the 1990s to end apartheid. It evolved as part of the political concessions to facilitate the transition “<a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230522749_25">from racial authoritarianism to multiparty democracy</a>” (p. 440-450).
This included enabling even the smallest parties a presence in parliament. </p>
<p>It has long outlived its contextual relevance. Its negative extremes abound in local government. The proliferation of smaller parties muddies the operating system of the multiparty democracy.</p>
<p>This has thrown governance into turmoil, as shown in the metropolises with their <a href="https://theconversation.com/turmoil-in-south-africas-capital-points-to-the-need-to-overhaul-local-democracy-139565">internecine coalition politics</a>. It is coming apart at the seams, to the <a href="https://jopa.wemasoft.co.za/public/portal/articles/published-article/id/1339">detriment of service delivery</a>.<br>
South Africa’s democracy is at a tipping point, and state capacity has been weakening. </p>
<h2>What needs to be done?</h2>
<p>Government has the responsibility to design a better electoral system. The objective should be to return power from political elites to the people. The existing system has spawned contestation among parties about sharing the spoils of state power rather than using this for the public good. </p>
<p>Different electoral systems exist across the globe. There is no perfect system for South Africa to choose. Each electoral system is a function of its political context, and when this changes, it also ought to change. </p>
<p>The distribution of seats for independent candidates must be thrashed out to ensure equity relative to political parties. When their electoral performance gives them more than a seat, they should be allowed to co-opt like-minded people to occupy them. </p>
<p>The possibility for ward councillors to contest elections as representatives of parties should be disallowed. They should only stand as direct community representatives. An overarching requirement for all who want to contest elections should be allegiance to the public interest, not party or personal interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mashupye Herbert Maserumule received funding from National Research Foundation(NRF). He is affiliated with the South African Association of Public Administration and Management(SAAPAM). </span></em></p>The proportional representation system has long outlived its relevance. Its negative extremes abound in local government.Mashupye Herbert Maserumule, Professor of Public Affairs, Tshwane University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946222023-01-02T19:44:54Z2023-01-02T19:44:54ZMMP in New Zealand turns 30 at this year’s election – a work in progress, but still a birthday worth celebrating<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499402/original/file-20221207-12-c8ddx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5607%2C3724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a tidy alignment of round numbers, this year’s general election will also mark the 30th anniversary of the <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/get-involved/features/25-years-since-mmp-referendum/">binding referendum</a> that ushered in the <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">mixed member proportional</a> (MMP) system of voting. It will also be the tenth election held under the proportional system, truly a generational milestone in New Zealand’s political history.</p>
<p>But the public disquiet that led to the country voting out the old first-past-the-post (FPP) system goes further back, at least as far as the 1978 and 1981 elections. Both saw the centre-left Labour Party lose, despite having won a higher percentage of the vote than the victorious centre-right National Party. </p>
<p>The winner-takes-all nature of FPP also sidelined popular minority parties. In 1981, for example, the Social Credit Party won 20.7% of the vote but only two seats. In fact, most parties’ seats in parliament rarely reflected their share of the vote. </p>
<p>In 1984, Labour commanded 60% of parliament, having won only 43% of the vote. Six years later, National owned 70% of the seats based on 47.8% of the vote. As Lord Hailsham famously put it, Westminster jurisdictions were (and are) effectively “<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-polls-showing-labour-could-govern-alone-is-new-zealand-returning-to-the-days-of-elected-dictatorship-146918">elected dictatorships</a>”. </p>
<p>FPP governments tended to deploy their parliamentary majorities with the kind of arrogance that eventually led to the vote for change. Moreover, FPP parliaments failed to reflect the country’s demographic diversity: 77 of the 99 members of the final FPP parliament were men, there were only eight Māori MPs, a single Pasifika MP, and no one of Asian heritage. Hardly a house of representatives.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499396/original/file-20221207-24-uc3eph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499396/original/file-20221207-24-uc3eph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499396/original/file-20221207-24-uc3eph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499396/original/file-20221207-24-uc3eph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499396/original/file-20221207-24-uc3eph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499396/original/file-20221207-24-uc3eph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499396/original/file-20221207-24-uc3eph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister David Lange in 1985: a TV blunder led to electoral change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<h2>Accidental reform</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/report-of-the-royal-commission-on-the-electoral-system/">Royal Commission on the Electoral System</a> (RCES) made an early case for change in 1986, but until the late 1980s electoral reform was a niche issue. It took a televised blunder from Labour prime minister David Lange to ignite the debate. </p>
<p>In the final leaders’ debate before the 1987 election, National’s Jim Bolger criticised Lange for ignoring the RCES recommentations. To his own colleagues’ surprise, Lange then went off-script and <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/video/35680/party-leaders-debate-1987">gave an undertaking</a> that Labour would stage a referendum if reelected. </p>
<p>Lange reneged on the promise, enabling Bolger to give his own commitment during the 1990 campaign that a National government would hold a single binding referendum on the electoral system.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labours-single-party-majority-is-not-a-failure-of-mmp-it-is-a-sign-nzs-electoral-system-is-working-148328">Labour's single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ's electoral system is working</a>
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<p>In the event, National strung the process out by legislating for two referendums. An indicative ballot in September 1992 was the first time in a Westminster parliamentary democracy that citizens were given the opportunity to change their electoral system – 84.7% of the 55% of eligible voters who turned out opted for change, and 70.5% indicated a preference for MMP. </p>
<p>That result triggered the second and binding referendum, a straight drag race between FPP and MMP, held in conjunction with the 1993 general election. The campaign leading up to the crucial decision was divisive and at times dirty.</p>
<p>On one side stood the pro-MMP Electoral Reform Coalition, supported by the minor political parties, Grey Power, some unions and the Māori Congress. On the other side, the Campaign for Better Government was backed by powerful corporate lobby group the Business Roundtable, the Employers Federation and a number of chambers of commerce. </p>
<p>Neither Labour nor National took an official position, but most MPs supported FPP. Indeed, Labour’s Helen Clark and National’s Simon Upton established the bi-partisan Campaign for First-Past-the-Post.</p>
<p>The second referendum was far closer than the first, with 53.9% ticking the box for MMP. But the result meant that when the country went to the polls in 1996, it was under a new electoral system. Contrary to some predictions, the sky did not fall.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499397/original/file-20221207-14-hci5se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499397/original/file-20221207-14-hci5se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499397/original/file-20221207-14-hci5se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499397/original/file-20221207-14-hci5se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499397/original/file-20221207-14-hci5se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499397/original/file-20221207-14-hci5se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499397/original/file-20221207-14-hci5se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">MMP in action: more women, more minorities in parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<h2>Moderation and compromise</h2>
<p>Fast forward three decades and the political landscape has changed considerably. Parliament is larger, with 120 members (<a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/get-involved/have-your-say/vote-in-elections/">occasionally one or two more</a>, depending on the electoral caclulus), and therefore better placed to scrutinise executive activity. </p>
<p>It’s also more diverse than its FPP predecessors: the current House of Representatives contains more or less equal numbers of female and male MPs, 25 Māori MPs (bearing out the hopes of those for whom MMP meant “more Māori parliamentarians”) and 18 members of Chinese, Cook Island Māori, Eritrean, Indian, Iranian, Korean, Maldivian, Mexican, Samoan, Sri Lankan and Tongan descent.</p>
<p>There are also wider lessons to be drawn. The arguments of naysayers notwithstanding, MMP has not led to government instability. We have learned how to form and maintain <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/10/what-is-confidence-and-supply-and-how-does-it-differ-from-a-coalition.html">multi-party and minority governments</a>, none of which has fallen to a confidence motion or failed to pass a budget. And, unlike <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/20/1130184234/liz-truss-prime-minister-resigns-uk-turmoil">the original Westminster jurisdiction</a>, New Zealand prime ministers have generally seen out multiple
parliamentary terms.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalitions-kingmakers-and-a-rugby-world-cup-the-calculations-already-influencing-next-years-nz-election-195010">Coalitions, kingmakers and a Rugby World Cup: the calculations already influencing next year’s NZ election</a>
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<p>MMP also tends towards <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300426130/mmp-at-25-mmp-has-changed-parliament-for-good-but-has-it-stopped-parliament-changing-new-zealand">policy moderation</a>. For some – including the senior public servants who hoped it would lock in the public financial management reforms of the 1980s and 1990s – that’s the point. Others argue it prevents decisive policy action. </p>
<p>Despite heading a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54582346">single party majority government</a> – the only one under MMP, and the first since 1951 to secure a majority of the vote – Jacinda Ardern has tended not to rule by virtual decree the way some of her FPP predecessors did. She has been cautious (<a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/co-governance-work-looks-set-to-be-put-on-hold">too much so for some</a>), mindful that more normal minority or coalition government <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/468165/political-poll-national-on-39-percent-while-labour-drops">will inevitably soon return</a>.</p>
<p>Ardern’s reluctance to throw her parliamentary weight around can be read another way, too. The imperative under MMP to build and maintain executive and legislative alliances also encourages political centrism. </p>
<p>Compromise can be frustrating, but over the long haul it can also help prevent the kind of <a href="https://inquirepublication.com/how-the-first-past-the-post-electoral-system-is-polarizing-the-us/">political division</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/28/boris-johnsons-move-to-prorogue-parliament-a-constitutional-outrage-says-speaker">constitutional chicanery</a> that have plagued nations with FPP electoral systems. Zero-sum games tend to apply in electoral politics: when winners take it all, others lose out. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499399/original/file-20221207-22-is41t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499399/original/file-20221207-22-is41t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499399/original/file-20221207-22-is41t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499399/original/file-20221207-22-is41t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499399/original/file-20221207-22-is41t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499399/original/file-20221207-22-is41t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499399/original/file-20221207-22-is41t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coalition and compromise: Deputy Prime Minister and NZ First leader Winston Peters with Jacinda Ardern in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A work in progress</h2>
<p>Not everything has changed under MMP. True, small parties are often central to the formation of governments, either as formal coalition partners or parliamentary support parties, but the two major players continue to dominate. </p>
<p>Their combined vote share has dropped – in the nine elections before 1996, National and Labour captured 82.5% of the vote between them, compared with 72% across all nine MMP elections. But under MMP they have provided all of the prime ministers, the overwhelming share of cabinet ministers, and the vast majority of budget commitments.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lowering-new-zealands-voting-age-to-16-would-be-good-for-young-people-and-good-for-democracy-145008">Lowering New Zealand's voting age to 16 would be good for young people – and good for democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>MMP also needs refining as it evolves. The increase in the number of constituency seats relative to list seats is eroding the system’s capacity to deliver true proportionality. </p>
<p>And the thresholds for securing parliamentary seats are under scrutiny as part of the <a href="https://electoralreview.govt.nz/">Independent Electoral Review</a>. The 5% party vote threshold is <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/debate-should-the-mmp-5-per-cent-party-vote-threshold-be-reduced/7MITXPCYZQXTHPHZFKJ2JZE3EU/">arguably too high</a>, while the ability to “coat tail” several MPs into parliament off a single constituency win <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/brian-rudman-cut-off-the-coat-tails-and-end-mmp-rorts/3EE5YIFEHX3Q6IOXJ2SCYWHUQ4/">unduly advantages small parties</a>. But those are details in which there are few, if any, devils. </p>
<p>Aotearoa New Zealand, as elsewhere, faces challenges to its democracy. But coalition governments and diverse parliaments are not among them. Most people won’t notice when MMP celebrates its tenth election this year – that alone is a sign of just how far we’ve come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It was the first time in a Westminster democracy that citizens were given the chance to change their electoral system. The rest is history.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1864782022-07-11T14:32:27Z2022-07-11T14:32:27ZA referendum on electoral reform in South Africa might stir up trouble<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472956/original/file-20220707-16-psr2t9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in Johannesburg queue to vote in South Africa's May 2019 national elections. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After 28 years of democracy, South Africa is having to reform its political party-based electoral system to make it fairer and in line with the constitution, by allowing independent candidates to <a href="https://perjournal.co.za/article/view/12746">contest national and provincial parliaments</a>. A <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">bill</a> to amend the country’s electoral law accordingly is before parliament.</p>
<p>The present electoral system has underpinned the governing African National Congresses’ (<a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">ANC</a>’s) <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-voters-are-disillusioned-but-they-havent-found-an-alternative-to-the-anc-171239">dominance of the political system since 1994</a>, not least by making individual MPs accountable to party bosses rather than the voters. This lack of accountability has facilitated the <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/statement-president-cyril-ramaphosa-handover-final-part-state-capture-commission-report%2C-union-buildings%2C-pretoria">stunning level of corruption</a> in the country.</p>
<p>Now there are calls for a <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/voices/standing-up-to-defend-our-democracy-is-the-only-option-20220702">national referendum</a> on the electoral system to define the way forward, and liberate it from the clutches of party barons. The intention seems to be to give the decision to “the people” rather than to parliament, which is the ordinary way for legislative change to be enacted.</p>
<p>But, this proposal would need to be handled carefully. </p>
<p>Referendums can be easily abused. Politicians often resort to them to avoid responsibility for making a difficult political decision, or to secure backing for a controversial policy and thus beat an opponent.</p>
<p>Examples abound.</p>
<p>British Labour prime minister Harold Wilson’s <a href="https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/britain-decides-the-first-european-referendum/">1975
referendum</a> on whether Britain should stay in the European common market was an example of the first. South African president FW de Klerk’s <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/1992-whites-only-referendum-or-against-negotiated-constitution">1992 referendum</a> among whites to secure backing for entering negotiations with the ANC to end apartheid – thereby scuppering the opposition <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Conservative-Party-political-party-South-Africa">Conservative Party</a> – was an example of the second.</p>
<p>Both Wilson and De Klerk received the answer they wanted and
expected. But politicians can also miscalculate badly. The most obvious example is British Conservative <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/David-Cameron">prime minister David Cameron</a>’s decision to call a referendum <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-five-years-after-the-referendum-here-are-five-things-weve-learned-162974">in 2016</a> on whether the UK should stay in the European Union.</p>
<p>He fully expected to win, but in the face of a scurrilous campaign by populist politicians like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/boris-johnson-exit-is-beginning-end-brexit-2022-07-07/">Boris Johnson</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/13/nigel-farage-hard-right-faction-brexit-net-zero-tory">Nigel Farage</a>, he lost. Today Britain is having to live with the consequences of Brexit: increased costs of imports from Europe, lower exports to Europe, constant supply chain problems, labour shortages and huge difficulties around Northern Ireland.</p>
<h2>Lessons to be drawn</h2>
<p>Britain’s history with referendums is worth noting. South Africa does not want to go the same way. Lessons need to be drawn from these and other examples around the world. </p>
<p>Care and rules are needed for how any referendum, on any question,
would be conducted. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Who would devise the question put to the electorate? Are they independent, or are they subordinated to the interests of particular politicians?</p></li>
<li><p>Are the questions posed neutrally phrased, or do they deliberately or otherwise point their respondents in a particular direction?</p></li>
<li><p>Would the government of the day be bound by the result of a referendum, or would it be advisory?</p></li>
<li><p>Would a government accept a result endorsed by a 50.1% majority,
or would it require a “special majority”, of say 55%, to pass?</p></li>
<li><p>What rules would have to be followed during a campaign, and how would the media be required to conduct themselves? </p></li>
<li><p>What sanctions would be imposed to limit the subversion of the campaign by lies by both sides of the electoral debate? </p></li>
<li><p>Would there be any rule outlawing a repeat of the referendum within any given period of time?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Without careful regulation, a referendum can be predisposed to securing a particular answer. Yet it is ostensibly designed to deepen democracy, not to subvert it.</p>
<h2>Proportionality</h2>
<p>Electoral systems can be highly complex. The great virtue of South Africa’s proportional representation <a href="https://hsf.org.za/publications/hsf-briefs/the-south-african-electoral-system">electoral system</a> is that it is simple. The voter has two votes, one for national level, one for provincial level. These votes contribute to the proportionate vote of the chosen party.</p>
<p>It is rather more difficult to explain to voters how <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272466990_The_Case_of_Lesotho's_Mixed_Member_Proportional_System">mixed member systems</a> ensure proportionality of party representation. These systems combine <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/first-past-the-post-voting-explained/">first-past-the-post</a> constituency elections with proportional representation. </p>
<p>This poses the issue of how members of parliament who are elected by constituencies would be balanced by those elected by <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/sou3.htm">proportional representation</a> to ensure an election result which, as the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a> requires, is overall, proportional. In other words, what proportion of MPs would be elected by constituencies as against those elected by proportional representation?</p>
<p>These complexities and other considerations suggest a way forward if much-needed electoral reform, beyond that presently ordered by the Constitutional Court, is to be achieved in South Africa.</p>
<p>The first step must be for the ANC to be pushed well below 50% in the <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/southafrica.htm">2024 election</a>. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas. The ANC is unlikely to hold a referendum which might lead to far-reaching electoral reform.</p>
<p>It is unlikely that the ANC will vote for radical electoral reform unless it is hard pushed to do so. It is at present working hard to <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-in-search-of-a-fairer-electoral-system-but-whats-been-tabled-is-flawed-184277">minimise the impact</a> of allowing independent candidates to stand in elections, as required by a ruling of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">Constitutional Court</a>.</p>
<p>Second, there needs to be a binding commitment by opposition parties to electoral reform and how to bring it about. Presuming that the ANC receives <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/05/20/jeff-radebe-warns-anc-could-get-below-50-of-votes-at-2024-national-elections">well below 50%</a> in the 2024 election, this commitment must be a condition of any coalition agreement formed between political parties forming a government.</p>
<p>Third, there should be a repeat of the 2003 <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">Van Zyl Slabbert Commission</a> to consider electoral alternatives. Such a commission should be composed in such a way to earn the trust of both politicians and voters.</p>
<p>Its deliberations need not take much time, as the commission has already discussed the fundamental principles involved. It also ran a survey which – rather than asking respondents directly what electoral system they favoured – asked them what values they wanted an electoral system to express, values like fairness, equality and accountability.</p>
<p>Fourth, the recommendations of such a commission would need to be
accepted and implemented by parliament. This is where any coalition
agreement should kick in. Perhaps such a coalition agreement might
require that, in the event of a serious disagreement about electoral reform, the matter should be referred to the Constitutional Court.</p>
<h2>What issues should the people decide?</h2>
<p>This leaves open the issue of whether, following the approval or
defeat of a bill to implement electoral reform, the outcome should be
referred to the electorate in a referendum.</p>
<p>It needs to be clear as to why, if parliament has made a decision, the
matter should be referred to a referendum. Perhaps it should. Perhaps this would be a way of making South Africa’s democracy more direct, and its politicians more accountable.</p>
<p>But if the form of an electoral system can be referred to the electorate in a referendum, why not capital punishment? And why not abortion? Or LGBTIQ rights? </p>
<p>Care is needed. A referendum may well have a place in the country’s
democracy, but beware – it may release a host of problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Referenda may well have a place in the country’s democracy, but if the form of an electoral system can be referred to a referendum, why not capital punishment, abortion or LGBT rights?Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842602022-06-09T13:55:02Z2022-06-09T13:55:02ZWhat Lesotho can teach Eswatini and South Africa about key political reforms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466793/original/file-20220602-22-zj686t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Basotho men wearing the traditional blankets during the annual horse race held on the king's birthday. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two southern African countries, South Africa and Eswatini, are undergoing important reforms. South Africa is reviewing its <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-ripe-for-electoral-reform-why-its-time-might-have-come-157149">electoral system</a> while Eswatini is revisiting the powers of the monarch through a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-11-15-the-king-is-still-bent-on-determining-the-tone-and-character-of-national-dialogue-in-eswatini/">national dialogue</a>. </p>
<p>South Africa and Eswatini can look to Lesotho for lessons. It’s a fellow member of the <a href="https://www.sadc.int/member-states/">Southern African Development Community</a> and has grappled with these issues for decades. The three countries share geographic, historical and economic ties. </p>
<p>The kingdom of Lesotho returned to electoral politics in 1993, after a long haul of <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/lesoverview6.htm">dictatorship capped by a military junta</a>. Since then, it has experienced <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10246029.1998.9627833?journalCode=rasr20">mutinies</a>, <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ_French/journals_E/Volume-08_Issue-3/benyera_e.pdf">coups</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02589001.2020.1749246">electoral violence</a>. </p>
<p>The advent of tumultuous <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/lesotho-after-may-2012-general-elections-making-the-coalition-work">coalition politics in 2012</a> laid bare the longstanding problems associated with the prime minister’s excessive powers. He compromised the security forces, the judiciary, civil service and even parliament, thereby <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00083968.2020.1834418">fuelling instability</a>.</p>
<p>The Southern African Development Community has intervened in Lesotho in <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/JAE14.2Weisfelder.pdf">almost every electoral cycle</a>. Its interventions have ranged from diplomatic to <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC16147">military</a>. The country is now effectively under the trusteeship of the regional bloc as it sails through a turbulent reform programme. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, there are certain aspects that Lesotho has handled quite well. Its successes offer lessons for other states that are undergoing reforms in similar areas. </p>
<p>First, it has made its electoral system more inclusive. Second, it has curbed the powers of the monarch in a constitutional democracy. </p>
<h2>South Africa’s electoral system</h2>
<p>South Africa faces a critical period in its electoral history. The country is <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">reviewing its electoral system</a> in the light of a debate that has raged since pre-constitution negotiations in the 1990s. The <a href="https://eisa.org/pdf/JAE2.1.pdf#page=76">contest</a> is between the proponents of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/proportional-representation">proportional representation</a>, and those favouring a <a href="https://www.etu.org.za/toolbox/docs/govern/elections.html">constituency-based</a> electoral system.</p>
<p>Under proportional representation, candidates contest elections as party candidates – not as individuals. In parliament, the <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajcr/article/view/39377/30302">representatives occupy proportional seats allocated to parties</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.etu.org.za/toolbox/docs/govern/elections.html">constituency-based electoral system</a> divides a country into relatively equal territorial units called constituencies. The system is often credited with <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/faure.pdf">increased accountability</a> to the voters by their representatives. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">Constitutional Court ruling heralds changes to South Africa's electoral system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>South Africa’s <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a> envisages an electoral system “that results, in general, in proportional representation”. The country has used this system for national and provincial elections since 1994.</p>
<p>But arguments over it have never been settled. Occasionally, the Constitutional Court is asked to intervene. </p>
<p>Its first major intervention was in 2002. The court had to decide whether floor-crossing – MPs switching parties – was in keeping with a proportional representation system. It found that floor-crossing at national, provincial and local government levels was <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2002/33media.pdf">consistent with the constitution</a>. </p>
<p>The second time was in 2020. Independent candidates had not been seen as having a place in an electoral system based on proportional representation of political parties. Then the court was asked to decide whether excluding independent candidates from contesting national and provincial elections <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">was constitutional</a>. </p>
<p>It decided that <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2020/11.html">excluding independents was unconstitutional</a>. This partly invalidated the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act73of1998.pdf">1998 Electoral Act</a>. The decision triggered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">search for an electoral system</a> that would allow independents to stand for election in an essentially proportional electoral system.</p>
<p>Lesotho grappled with the same questions following its <a href="http://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/jch/article/download/4110/3694">controversial 1998 elections</a>. In 2001, it adopted a <a href="https://www.academia.edu/download/72989383/j.electstud.2003.12.00520211017-17059-u63y2z.pdf">“mixed member proportional”</a> system, the <a href="https://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/es/annex/esy/esy_ls">first country in Africa</a> to do so. </p>
<p>It remains a species of proportional electoral system, but permits individuals to stand in constituencies, either as independents or sponsored by political parties. As a result, some MPs are elected as constituency representatives, others as proportional representatives of political parties. The system has performed relatively well. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://lesotholii.org/ls/legislation/act/2001/4/ls_amend_4th_2001_og.pdf">fourth amendment to the constitution of Lesotho</a> of 2001 can come in handy for the conversation <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/Bills/2022/B1_2022_Electoral_Amendment_Bill/B1_2022_Electoral_Amendment_Bill.pdf">under way in the South African parliament</a> regarding electoral reform. </p>
<p>The lesson is that independent candidates can be allowed to stand for elections in a system that results, by and large, in proportional representation as required by section 46 of the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a>. </p>
<h2>Eswatini’s monarchy</h2>
<p>The most recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lies-behind-uprisings-in-eswatini-the-unfinished-business-of-democratic-reform-171844">wave of discontent</a> in Eswatini reignited calls to reduce the powers of the only remaining absolute monarch in Africa. The king’s place in Eswatini’s democracy has been an issue since <a href="https://lib.ugent.be/catalog/ebk01:4100000009375057">independence from Britain in 1968</a>. At independence, the <a href="https://oxcon.ouplaw.com/view/10.1093/law:ocw/law-ocw-cd19.regGroup.1/law-ocw-cd19#law-ocw-cd19-miscMatter-1">constitution</a> provided for a constitutional monarch along the lines of Lesotho’s. </p>
<p>The independence constitutions of both countries were cast in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pa/article-abstract/36/2/218/1532256">classical Westminster moulds</a>. But, hardly five years into independence, in 1973, <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/recipient/king-sobhuza-ii-1899-1982">King Sobhuza II</a> of Swaziland (now Eswatini) suspended the constitution and claimed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10246029.2003.9627233?journalCode=rasr20">absolute powers</a>. This is still the position despite the new <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC53235">constitution of 2005</a>. The king has unlimited executive powers and political parties are prohibited. </p>
<p>Discontent over the king’s powers has been growing. There is now agreement in Eswatini that there must be <a href="https://www.google.co.za/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjhmqL4j474AhULXsAKHbSUAHsQwqsBegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D1M9EAOyMJgA&usg=AOvVaw3rKTXbS1bmmWTJG_24fKfW">candid dialogue</a> about the king’s powers, and greater democratisation. The <a href="https://www.sadc.int/news-events/news/statement-chairperson-sadc-organ-politics-defence-and-security-cooperation-his-excellency-matamela-cyril-ramaphosa-president-rep/">Southern African Development Community</a> is facilitating the dialogue. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-monarch-in-lesotho-should-be-given-some-powers-but-not-extreme-powers-165914">The monarch in Lesotho should be given some powers: but not extreme powers</a>
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</em>
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<p>Lesotho has been grappling with the question of the king’s powers since pre-independence negotiations. Temptations to have an executive monarch have occasionally thrown the country into <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-monarch-in-lesotho-should-be-given-some-powers-but-not-extreme-powers-165914">turmoil</a>. But it is now generally accepted that executive powers must vest in the democratically elected prime minister. The monarchy is <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2225-71602020000100011">ceremonial</a>.</p>
<p>Politicians have run Lesotho into many constitutional problems, but at least voters can replace them periodically. The monarch is cherished but within a democratic system based on multi-partyism. The people of Eswatini do not have this under an absolute monarchy.</p>
<p>The usual tendency to look to Europe and elsewhere to solve problems in Africa is not always helpful. This may be an opportune moment to find <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26890401?casa_token=18Uxn8Ll5WIAAAAA:xmqDg7YoIPrBXRUs1JN-wscLp124zhjdaZdAW3oE1nnHXHO5mTbuwu7qsjNm0mV_L3QJpUF9VCpCL9ER9Ge8DkgWWqPEBH8GYF_HAQJIEVkKxYVejjs9">African solutions to African problems</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184260/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hoolo 'Nyane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lesotho has done a good job of curbing the powers of its monarch and making its electoral system inclusive.Hoolo 'Nyane, Head of Department, Public and Environmental Law Department, University of LimpopoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842772022-06-08T13:56:49Z2022-06-08T13:56:49ZSouth Africa is in search of a fairer electoral system. But what’s been tabled is flawed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466954/original/file-20220603-15-ajvadi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman votes in South Africa's November 2021 local elections. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is amending its electoral law to make it fairer by enabling citizens to contest provincial and national elections without being forced to join political parties. </p>
<p>The follows a 2020 Constitutional Court <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2020/11.html">judgment</a> that found that excluding citizens from being elected as independent individuals was unconstitutional. The court gave parliament 24 months to amend the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act73of1998.pdf">1998 Electoral Act</a> accordingly.</p>
<p>South Africa’s <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a> prescribes an electoral system “that results, in general, in proportional representation”. The country has used this system for national and provincial elections since 1994.</p>
<p>But, in 2020, the New Nation Movement, a civil society body, <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutional-court-ruling-heralds-changes-to-south-africas-electoral-system-140668">challenged the electoral system</a> for unfairly excluding independent candidates. In their view, the act made it impossible for voters to have a direct link to national and provincial representatives who can be directly accountable to them. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">Electoral Amendment Bill</a> has been tabled before parliament. It allows for two categories of individual candidates: those who run purely as independents as well as those nominated by political parties. </p>
<p>The proposed new system is similar to the country’s local government electoral system. Under this system an equal number of proportional party representatives and individual ward councillors are elected. It is also similar to Lesotho’s <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ai/article/view/51012">mixed member proportional system</a>. This combines individually elected parliamentarians with proportionally elected party members.</p>
<p>In my view this arrangement would undermine the intention of the court judgement.</p>
<p>Firstly, they won’t meet the requirements of making the electoral system more responsive to local voters because party nominated candidates, who will still be able to run, will have an unfair advantage over independents. And, as the current system clearly shows, candidates who are part of party lists aren’t directly accountable to the electorate.</p>
<h2>Flaws</h2>
<p>There are flaws in the bill related to broader rights as set out in the constitution.</p>
<p>One relates to the right to belong to a political party. </p>
<p>The constitution guarantees every citizen the right to be a member of a party. But clause 31B(3)(f) in the <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/bill/2300397">bill</a> determines that one of the requirements for an independent candidate is that they should not have been a member of a political party for at least three months before their nomination date. This seemingly violates section 19(1)(b) of the constitution, which guarantees the right for everyone</p>
<blockquote>
<p>to participate in the activities of … a political party. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The right to be a member of a party can’t be denied, even temporarily.</p>
<p>The phrasing of this clause in the bill seems to be missing the point. From the public’s point of view, the emphasis is very much on seeking alternatives to candidates who are the products of internal party nomination processes. The minimum requirements for such an independent should, therefore, be that a candidate is not nominated by a party, and their nomination and campaign are not funded by a party. </p>
<p>Membership of a party – or any other organisation – cannot be restricted by legislation.</p>
<p>Another area of concern is what impact independent representatives will have on the proportional representation in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures. </p>
<p>Section 19 of the constitution has to be read together with section 46(1)(d), which states that the electoral system must “result, in general, in proportional representation”. It implies that the overall effect of the electoral system (allocation of seats) has to be proportional in terms of the votes received by all the parties. </p>
<p>The question, therefore, is what the impact of independent representatives on this proportionality is. </p>
<p>The proposed electoral system will meet this constitutional requirement only if the number of independent representatives among the 200 regional seat representatives is as low as possible, and the number of party-nominated individual representatives as high as possible. The table below shows how the level or percentage of proportionality declines in direct correlation to an increase in the number of independents. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=119&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=119&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=119&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=149&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=149&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466771/original/file-20220602-14-5fljzj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=149&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dirk Kotze</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It means that if all 200 regional seat representatives are independents, then the level of proportionality in the National Assembly will only be 50%. </p>
<p>The bill allows for what it calls compensatory seat representatives. These are designed to compensate for the difference that might exist between the number of individual seats a party gets and its proportion of the total votes in the election. </p>
<p>But the concept only has limited use. Only the PR compensatory seats plus each party’s regional seats will contribute to the proportionality of parties. It does not include the independents amongst the regional seats.</p>
<p>This will certainly not meet the minimum constitutional requirement of proportionality. </p>
<p>It is inconceivable that such a constitutional threshold could be lower than 75%, and therefore more than 100 independents. The implication is that allocating 50% of the National Assembly seats to the regional seats category is too high. </p>
<p>There is a solution: The 50/50% allocation should be reconsidered in favour of the proportional representation “compensatory” seats to meet the general PR requirement. </p>
<p>Another flaw in the bill is the system proposed when it comes to provincial lists. As currently set out, this has a built-in bias in favour of party-nominated individual candidates who can rely on their party’s financing and campaign infrastructure. </p>
<p>Here’s why.</p>
<p>The National Assembly is currently made up of 400 members – 200 from national lists and the other 200 from provincial proportional representation lists. The bill proposes replacing current provincial lists with regional seat members.</p>
<p>The implication of this approach is that South Africa will be demarcated into nine huge National Assembly constituencies (which are identical to the provinces). In contrast, most of the proposals made recently to the <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/ministerial-advisory-committee-electoral-system-hosts-first-consultative-meeting-24-mar">Ministerial Advisory Panel on the Electoral System</a>, and by the <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">Van Zyl Slabbert Task Team</a> on electoral reform in 2003, included more constituencies. </p>
<p>Using such large constituencies will make it very difficult for both categories of regional seat candidates to campaign effectively. They’re unlikely to have enough financial and other resources. </p>
<p>There’s another argument to be made against large constituencies – or, as the bill envisages, multi-member constituencies. </p>
<p>The whole idea behind independent candidates is the hope that their inclusion might improve the accountability of parliamentarians to the voters. And make them more accessible to the public.</p>
<p>But large constituencies cannot meet these expectations. If that was indeed possible, then the current provincial legislatures would have done it already. </p>
<p>A second implication of the envisaged multi-member constituencies is that their representatives will come from different parties and some may be independents. If a voter wants to approach a public representative with a problem, to whom will they go? Who’ll take responsibility for that issue and who’ll accountable for it?</p>
<h2>Radical changes, but not enough</h2>
<p>This amendment proposes radical changes in the electoral system, but whether it meets the main expectations of the Constitutional Court, is unlikely. The public will still not gain direct access to public representatives, who can individually be accountable for parliamentary decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dirk Kotze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The whole idea behind independent candidates is the hope that their inclusion might improve the accountability of parliamentarians to the voters. The bill doesn’t do that.Dirk Kotze, Professor in Political Science, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1781202022-03-06T12:15:10Z2022-03-06T12:15:10ZThe ‘freedom convoy’ protests point to a bigger problem with Canada’s democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450100/original/file-20220304-21-12nw4y4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5153%2C3381&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are indications that more and more Canadians feel the federal government doesn't represent their views. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The “freedom convoy” protests across the country revealed that many Canadians are angry at government and have a growing distrust of some democratic institutions. Even though the protesters’ actions may not represent how a majority of Canadians feel about vaccine mandates, there’s reason to believe their negative views about government are not unique.</p>
<p><a href="https://angusreid.org/canada-politics-government-division-disengagement/">A recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute</a> asked respondents if Canada could be accurately described as having a “good system of government” — 45 per cent said it could not. The poll also found no region of the country had a majority of residents who felt the federal government cared about issues important to them.</p>
<p>None of this is surprising in a country where <a href="https://centre.irpp.org/research-studies/the-persistence-of-western-alienation/">Western alienation is still a concern</a> and <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2021/03/24/federal-carbon-pricing-not-a-swing-issue-for-voters-mainstreet-poll/?doing_wp_cron=1646351983.7357358932495117187500">opinions are divided on federal government actions to battle climate change</a>.</p>
<p>A common refrain from politicians is that Canada is a democracy where everyone is entitled to vote, so if you don’t like what the government is doing, then you can vote it out of office. Implicit in that response is that everyone enjoys an equal opportunity to determine who forms government. But the refrain is also at odds with our current democratic process.</p>
<p>For quite some time, what’s united a majority of Canadians is that they don’t like the vision of the government in power, no matter what their political colours are. What’s needed to release tensions of growing divisions is a recalibration of our basic democratic institution.</p>
<p>Canada has had 12 elections since 1984, when the Progressive Conservatives under Brian Mulroney were the last party to enjoy the support of a majority of voters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449320/original/file-20220301-15-170268v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Results of federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.sfu.ca/%7Eaheard/elections/1867-present.html">In all 11 elections since 1984, a majority of Canadians</a> — most times in excess of 60 per cent — have not supported the government in power. What voters can’t agree upon is whose vision they prefer.</p>
<p>These figures have not been lost on the country’s political leaders. They have given up on seeking a true majority of voters and have designed their policies — often in very cynical fashion, such <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-transit-fund-1.5908346">as transport subsidies for urban voters</a> or <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/look-to-conservative-platform-to-fill-in-the-blanks-on-gun-policy-o-toole-1.5573803">gun law freedoms for rural voters</a> — to appeal only to what they consider their electoral base, believing this base can give them a shot at forming government.</p>
<p>Conservative leadership candidate <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-conservative-otoole-convoy-vaccine-mandate-1.6335286">Pierre Poilievre’s support of the “freedom convoy”</a> is the latest example of the “appeal to your base” strategy. It’s not the number of people you can attract to your party. It’s more important to focus on which electorate voters reside in.</p>
<p>For example, I live in the electoral riding of Windsor West. Herb Gray held the riding for the Liberal party from 1962 to 2002 — sometimes with 73 per cent of the popular vote, but most times around the 55 per cent mark. <a href="https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_part2_e.pdf">In a 2002 byelection</a>, Brian Masse was elected for the NDP with 42 per cent and <a href="https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/windsor-west-race-too-close-to-call">he still represents the riding</a>. In my riding, if you are a Conservative or Green voter, you may as well stay at home. </p>
<p>In the 12 federal elections held over the last 37 years, five resulted in minority governments. Obviously, we are not experiencing the electoral stability that supporters of <a href="https://www.samaracanada.com/samara-in-the-classroom/electoral-reform/first-past-the-post/">first-past-the-post system</a> have always argued as a strength of the current electoral process. </p>
<p>How then do we recalibrate our basic democratic system to ensure that everyone’s vote counts, that political leaders are incentivized to court every voter and construct policy aligned with that goal, and to ensure those who feel alienated are heard?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450101/original/file-20220304-21-7s65k8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A truck taking part in the ‘freedom convoy’ protests in Ottawa displays a sign calling for Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre to become Prime Minister. Poilievre was quick to offer his support to those opposed to vaccine mandates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The answer lies in moving to some form of proportional representational electoral system. This idea is not new, but now more than ever it is necessary to revitalize our democracy and provide a pathway for unity.</p>
<p>Among those alternative systems, <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system</a> has many advantages.</p>
<p>Canadians can’t leave electoral reform to mainstream politicians — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-electoral-reform-proportional-representation-1.5225616">and the current Liberal government has already reneged on a promise to eliminate the first-past-the-post system</a>. New Zealand’s system would require changes to be suitable for Canada, but some form of proportional representation is the best way to ensure that every vote counts and that we do truly get the government we deserve. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Parliament buildings stand in the central business district of Wellington, New Zealand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450103/original/file-20220304-25-96hau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parliament in New Zealand is represented by a more diverse group since that country reformed its first-past-the-post electoral system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo /Nick Perry)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In New Zealand, everyone has two votes — one for the candidate to represent their riding and one for the party of their choice. Riding candidates are elected on the basis of first past the post, but the composition of the parliament is also based on the popular vote share across the country. So if a party gets 35 per cent of the popular vote, but holds only 25 per cent of the seats in parliament, it’s allotted extra seats that are drawn from a list of candidates put forward by their party.</p>
<p>There are currently 75 electorate members and 45 list members in New Zealand. These lists have widened the diversity of candidates, providing an additional strength to a representative democracy. <a href="https://socialreport.msd.govt.nz/civil-and-political-rights/representation-of-ethnic-groups-in-government.html">Maori MPs in New Zealand have increased to 20 per cent from five per cent</a> (Maori make up 15 per cent of the population) and Pacific Islanders (seven per cent of the population) to seven per cent from one per cent. Gender parity has largely been obtained (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/asia/new-zealand-parliament-diverse-intl-hnk-dst/index.html">48 per cent of MPs are women and 11 per cent are from the LGBTQ+ community</a>). </p>
<p>In practice, <a href="https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz">New Zealand’s proportional system has resulted in several forms of government</a>. There have been true minority governments where a party has gained only 42 per cent of the popular vote and has held government with 45 per cent of the seats. There have been true majority governments — the <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/">current one elected in 2020 being one of them</a>.</p>
<p>But more often, there have been <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/mps-and-parliaments-1854-onwards/governments-in-new-zealand-since-1856/">true coalition governments</a> where parties have agreed on particular policy items, including holding ministerial portfolios, signed an accord and have governed accordingly. Their legitimacy comes from the fact that in coalition they represent a true majority of the voters. </p>
<p>Most New Zealand voters use their two votes for the same party but <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-10-2017/the-tick-splitters-how-new-zealanders-used-their-two-votes-a-visualisation">vote-splitting</a> does occur.</p>
<p>If this system was brought to Canada, I might want to vote NDP for my riding MP, but give more say to the Green party because I believe strongly in climate change and that’s where I would give my party vote. For a Conservative voter in Windsor West, under a proportional voting system, their party vote has the same value as everyone else in the country. That would dissuade parties from only appealing to their “base” with policies that alienate the majority of the electorate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178120/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Berryman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The wave of protests across Canada against vaccine mandates are signs of growing tensions that the federal government doesn’t represent the views of many people. It’s time for election reform.Jeff Berryman, Distinguished University Professor and Professor of Law, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1686482021-10-03T12:58:34Z2021-10-03T12:58:34ZCanada’s first-past-the-post electoral system highlights once again the need for reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423945/original/file-20210929-19-1r85tup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4409%2C2937&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Our first-past-the-post electoral system works poorly when there are lots of three-way races and even some four-way races. Seats can be won with far less than a majority, meaning it's time to revisit electoral reform. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pietro Mattia/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent federal election produced the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-minority-governments-have-been-good-and-sometimes-bad-for-canada-168018">second minority government</a> in a row — and the fifth since 2004. </p>
<p>Neither Conservatives nor Liberals <a href="https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e">received more than 34 per cent of the popular vote nationwide,</a> but parliamentary representation remains heavily distorted. </p>
<p>Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system works poorly when there are lots of three-way races and even some four-way races. Seats can be won with far less than a majority, and some regions are disproportionately represented by a single party. There is also a growing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-first-past-the-post-rural-urban-divide-1.6186799">rural-urban divide</a> in representation that is exacerbating political fault lines.</p>
<p>There is a compelling alternative used by many other nations: proportional representation, where seats in parliament reflect vote shares. There are three concerns, however: local representation, fringe parties and weak governments. Nonetheless, a smartly designed proportional system can overcome the first two concerns, and parliamentary protocol can address the third. </p>
<h2>A new idea for electoral reform</h2>
<p>The menu of electoral systems used to feature either proportionality, local representation or awkward combinations of the two.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.06.015">My own research</a> offers a new electoral system that can deliver proportionality and even enhance local representation. It combines provincial proportional representation with electoral districts represented by two members of Parliament instead of one.</p>
<p>People vote for parties instead of local candidates, and elected members from each party have to represent two districts each so that the most voters are represented by their preferred party choice from each riding. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman lines up outside a building to vote with yellow vote signs on either side of her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter queues at a polling station to cast their ballot in Toronto in the 2021 federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In almost all instances, the “senior” member who received more votes than the “junior” member in a riding will be from the same party as with our current system.</p>
<p>But because each district has two members of Parliament, there is better local representation overall, and there is more competition among parties for effective representation of each district. </p>
<p>Each parliamentarian has a bit more work than before, looking after two districts rather than one. Because voting patterns cluster locally, most parliamentarians will look after neighbouring districts. Dual representation makes it much more likely that districts are represented by someone from a party in government. Voters have two members of Parliament they can appeal to with their local concerns. </p>
<h2>Provinces keep same number of seats</h2>
<p>Proportionality is achieved separately for each province, reflecting Canada’s federal structure. Each province would maintain their current number of seats, while the three territories would continue to elect their member of Parliament directly. Provincial proportionality means that only Albertan parliamentarians would represent Alberta, and only Québecois parliamentarians would represent Québec.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bernier, in a blue suit, frowns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maxime Bernier speaks to supporters on election night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To prevent regional and fringe parties from gaining undue representation and influence, proportionality needs strong thresholds: a five per cent hurdle nationwide and for each province. In September’s election, this threshold would have applied to both the Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Maxime Bernier’s PPC came within a whisker of the first hurdle, receiving 4.94 per cent of the popular vote nationwide.</p>
<p>Some critics associate proportionality with fractious parliaments, instability, weak governments and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302753650346">fiscal profligacy</a>. But this outcome is unlikely in Canada because there are well-established major parties that will continue to vie for first place. </p>
<p>Parliamentary protocol already ensures that governments can’t be toppled too easily. The “<a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/about/procedureandpractice3rdedition/ch_02_2-e.html">confidence convention</a>” requires a government to enjoy the support and confidence of the majority in the House of Commons. The current system encourages premature parliamentary dissolution in a quest for majority government. But majority governments remain elusive.</p>
<h2>Parliamentary composition</h2>
<p>What would the electoral map look like under proportionality?</p>
<p>Conservatives would gain four seats (123 instead of 119), Liberals would lose 36 seats (123 instead of 159), the NDP would gain 40 seats (65 instead of 25) and the Bloc Québécois would lose six seats (27 instead of 33). </p>
<p>The Green Party and People’s Party would be shut out due to the five per cent hurdle. Parliament would retain a centre-left majority, but with a rather different composition. (Riding-by-riding results are on <a href="https://wernerantweiler.ca/blog.php?item=2021-09-24">my web page</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph shows the actual and hypothetical composition of the 44th Canadian Parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actual and hypothetical composition of the 44th Canadian Parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors' calculations</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Electoral reform creates winners and losers. In 2021, proportionality would have benefited New Democrats the most. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Liberals prefer milder versions of electoral reform such as ranked ballots. Conservatives prefer none at all.</p>
<p>After Liberals won a majority government in 2015, <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/fr/magazines/fevrier-2017/broken-trust-on-electoral-reform/">their appetite for electoral reform quickly vanished</a>. Ultimately, electoral reform may only come about if a smaller party — likely the NDP — holds the balance of power and makes electoral reform the price to pay for supporting a minority government.</p>
<p>The fact remains that <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/septembe-2021/too-many-canadians-vote-for-a-political-party-leaving-local-candidates-with-little-influence/">voters care more about parties than local candidates</a>. Proportionality would be fairer, but effective local representation is also needed and can actually be improved by maximizing preferred-party representation in each district.</p>
<p>My research shows that local representation does not need to be diluted to gain proportionality. Canada deserves a 21st-century electoral system that fits its unique political landscape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Werner Antweiler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research offers a new electoral system that can deliver proportionality and even enhance local representation.Werner Antweiler, Associate Professor, Strategy and Business Economics, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1666822021-08-25T15:10:58Z2021-08-25T15:10:58ZSouth Africa’s new Speaker of parliament has sparked controversy – for good reason<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417570/original/file-20210824-19-1xmi0kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's controversial new Speaker of Parliament, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ruvan Boshoff/Xinhua via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Thursday 19 August the members of South Africa’s National Assembly convened physically <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/national-assembly-elects-ms-nosiviwe-mapisa-nqakula-speaker">for the first time in a while</a>. They met in several locations in parliament to achieve sufficient distancing in the pandemic. And there was only one item on the order paper: the election of a Speaker. </p>
<p>This was duly done and the former minister of defence, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, was <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-08-19-new-national-assembly-speaker-nosiviwe-mapisa-nqakula-extends-hand-of-cooperation-to-all/">elected to the office</a>. </p>
<p>The Speaker in South Africa presides over proceedings in the National Assembly. They also are the titular head of parliament as a whole, including the <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/national-council-provinces">National Council of Provinces</a>. The Speaker is elected by a majority of members of the assembly, and may be removed in the same way. </p>
<p>The Speaker is responsible for providing political leadership and strategic direction to the National Assembly. And they should do so in a nonpartisan manner. </p>
<p>Why was this an important temperature check for the state of health of South Africa’s constitutional democracy?</p>
<p>This question must be answered against the background of the ingrained identity politics which characterise the country’s long history of racial oppression and its <a href="https://origins.osu.edu/sites/origins.osu.edu/files/origins-archive/Volume2Issue2Article3.pdf">relatively recent reversal</a>. It would, therefore, have been unrealistic in the first years of democracy to expect conscientious adherence to the unwritten rules and conventional spirit that ideally should prevail in parliament. But the expectation was that this would gradually be achieved. </p>
<p>Indeed, those who served in the position immediately after the country’s first democratic election <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-african-general-elections-1994">in 1994</a> did so with distinction. However, over most of the past 15 years the Speaker has been both weak and partisan, and was responsible for allowing the executive, particularly that of former president Jacob Zuma, to conduct themselves in ways that have brought the government into disrepute.</p>
<p>The election of the new Speaker was thus a significant moment for the governing African National Congress (ANC) to show that it was moving away from its <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-anc-itself-is-the-chief-impediment-to-ramaphosas-agenda-108781">“wasted years”</a> under Zuma.</p>
<p>It failed the test. Mapisa-Nqakula’s elevation to this significant constitutional office reflects extremely poorly on the party leadership. It contrasts starkly with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s oft-stated commitment to uncorrupt governance and to the <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2018-state-nation-address-16-feb-2018-0000">values of the constitution</a>.</p>
<h2>A brief history of the role</h2>
<p>The title given to the highest authority in parliament originated in the English parliament in the late 1300s. It then described the person who “spoke” on behalf of the monarch. After the <a href="https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-glorious-revolution-of-1688/">“Glorious Revolution” of 1688</a>, the Speaker became the presiding officer in the House of Commons. </p>
<p>South Africa inherited that office and title as a former British colony, together with almost all other members of the <a href="https://thecommonwealth.org/">Commonwealth</a>. </p>
<p>Any legislature needs someone to chair its proceedings, to manage and administer the support services, to oversee the exercise of discipline among its members, and to represent it in discussions with the executive and judicial arms of government.</p>
<p>Various approaches are taken towards the impartiality and independence of the office of Speaker. </p>
<p>In the UK, an MP is elected as Speaker immediately <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/speakers-election/">after a general election</a>. The person is generally a member of the governing party, but does not have to be. On election the MP ceases to be a member of the party caucus. </p>
<p>In the US the <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Office/Speakers-Intro/">Speaker of the House of Representatives</a> is drawn from the senior ranks of the majority party in the lower house of Congress. They play a partisan role, balanced with a degree of fair play towards all members of the house. </p>
<p>Most other national constitutions position their equivalent of the Speaker between these two approaches.</p>
<h2>What the job entails</h2>
<p>As the parliamentary <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/na-presiding-officers">website </a> provides, the Speaker’s responsibilities include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>preserving parliamentary integrity and the decorum of the house, </p></li>
<li><p>ensuring the smooth running of legislative business and the functioning of committees, </p></li>
<li><p>presiding impartially over sittings and maintaining order. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The Speaker represents parliament as a whole. Their responsibilities include ensuring sufficient budget for its activities, monitoring expenditure and the provision of support for all MPs, and initiating or responding to any litigation in the courts. </p>
<p>In terms of South Africa’s <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a>, the Speaker heads the legislative branch of government, and should act as its champion at all times, both nationally and internationally. This is particularly the case in its relationship with the executive.</p>
<p>Effective fulfilment of all these functions requires a highly efficient, dignified, respected and wise MP. The experience of the past 27 years has been patchy.</p>
<h2>Rollcall of speakers</h2>
<p>An exemplary start was made by <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/dr-frene-noshir-ginwala">Frene Ginwala</a>, who served for the first decade of democratic government. She ruled with a firm yet fair hand, and presided over many initiatives to transform parliament from its lapdog role under apartheid to the vision set in the constitution. The ideal is that parliament represents the electorate and also plays an effective role in regulating the exercise of executive power. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.za/speech-max-sisulu-mp-speaker-national-assembly-ceremonial-court-session-honour-late-former-chief">Max Sisulu</a> (2009-2014) and latterly <a href="https://www.pa.org.za/person/thandi-modise/">Thandi Modise</a> (2019-2021) broadly followed the Ginwala approach. </p>
<p>Regrettably, the double tenure (2004-2008 and 2014-2019) of <a href="https://www.gov.za/about-government/contact-directory/baleka-mbete-honourable">Baleka Mbete</a> fell far short of the expectations of the Speaker’s office. On her watch, particularly in her second term, she was frequently accused of treating opposition MPs less favourably than government MPs. She was also accused of <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/can-sas-parliament-redeem-itself-as-an-oversight-mechanism">blocking parliamentary investigations</a> into actions of the ruling ANC, in particular Zuma. </p>
<p>Indeed, in May this year, she testified at the Zondo Commission into state capture that she had <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2021-05-18-i-ignored-authorless-arms-deal-report-and-would-do-it-again-says-baleka-mbete/">ignored an anonymous whistle-blower’s report alleging corruption</a> in 2007. And, she said, if called upon to decide how to respond to any such report today, she would do so again.</p>
<h2>Flawed system</h2>
<p>The problems surrounding the role of the Speaker in South Africa are rooted in the autocratic racism of our past. The ability to transcend it is eroded by <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-ripe-for-electoral-reform-why-its-time-might-have-come-157149">the electoral system </a> and by the organising principle of the ANC. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">party-list proportional representation model</a> means that only loyal party members will be elected to any legislature in the country. This leads to the tendency to put party interests before those of the country. </p>
<p>This is substantially compounded by the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248962959_The_Lack_of_Internal_Party_Democracy_in_the_African_National_Congress_A_Threat_to_the_Consolidation_of_Democracy_in_South_Africa">“democratic centralist”</a> basis on which the ANC is modelled. This approach maintains that a degree of disagreement and debate is tolerated within closed party meetings, but that, once a decision or policy is adopted by the majority, every party member has to adhere uncritically to that line. </p>
<p>The consequences for any Speaker are self-evident.</p>
<p>By definition, someone who is appointed as Speaker will be a senior member of the ruling party, steeped in its history, culture and traditions. This is unacceptably reinforced when the Speaker remains an office bearer of the party, as was seen with Mbete, who was national shairperson of the ANC while serving as Speaker. </p>
<p>Mapisa-Nqakula was elected to serve as Speaker after being dropped from the cabinet following an utterly undistinguished period of 15 years <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/from-fired-minister-to-speaker-of-parliament-mapisa-nqakula-is-ancs-candidate-20210811">as a cabinet minister in three portfolios</a>.
She is herself the subject of investigation by a committee of Parliament for <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/investigations/exclusive-jets-hotels-and-wigs-mps-investigate-graft-allegations-against-nosiviwe-mapisa-nqakula-20210819">alleged unethical conduct</a>. And she’s been under a cloud for unaccountable and suspect misuse of her authority a number of times. </p>
<p>Parliament’s <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/opposition-parties-distance-themselves-from-thandi-modises-apology-to-zondo-commission-20210602">failure</a> to hold the Zuma administration to account has been graphically and repeatedly illustrated in evidence to the <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">Zondo commission</a>. Given this shockingly delinquent failure by parliament to fulfil its constitutional obligations, the prospects are at best bleak of the new Speaker tolerating, let alone initiating, any more active and effective scrutiny in the next few years. </p>
<p>The temperature check reveals an ailing system of public governance, unable to shift from the burdens of the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Corder is Professor Emeritus of Public Law at UCT. He has received funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa. He is a director of Freedom under Law and a member of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution. </span></em></p>The ANC’s choice of parliamentary Speaker reflects poorly on the party leadership and contrasts starkly with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s commitment to uncorrupt governance.Hugh Corder, Professor of Public Law, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1635282021-07-05T16:47:43Z2021-07-05T16:47:43ZAngola’s peculiar electoral system needs reforms. How it could be done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409458/original/file-20210702-19-1om5u4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) supporters at a campaign rally. The party has run the country since independence in 1975.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Osvaldo Silva / AFP) via Getty Images.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Angola has a unique electoral system. Its main <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2017/08/23/angola-electoral-system-how-parliamentary-seats-determines-the-president//">peculiarity</a> is that it involves voters electing the president, deputy president and members of parliament simultaneously with a single mark on a single ballot paper. </p>
<p>This has a negative impact on the quality of the country’s representative democracy. It prevents voters from voting differently for the president and members of parliament. And it reduces the ability of voters to hold elected representatives to account besides keeping them in office, or voting them out every five years. </p>
<p>Hence, the need for reform. </p>
<p>An alternative electoral system would have the following components. It should provide for the direct election of the president. And it should allow for the representation of Angolan communities abroad. In addition, seats in the legislature should be allocated through direct election of representatives from constituencies combined with compensatory seats for political parties in proportion to their overall outcome.</p>
<h2>How does the system work?</h2>
<p>Angola uses a <a href="https://www.idea.int/answer/ans1303551852622304">closed-list</a> proportional representation electoral system. Voters cast ballots for lists of candidates drawn up by political parties. Parties are then allocated seats in the legislature in proportion to the share of votes that they receive at the polls. </p>
<p>This electoral system is used widely elsewhere. Examples include South Africa and Portugal. </p>
<p>The specific variant used in Angola is outlined in the <a href="https://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/africa/AO/constitution-of-the-republic-of-angola-2010/view">country’s current constitution</a>. It was approved in 2010 to replace the interim constitution, which had been in effect since 1992. </p>
<p>The constitution states that the individual occupying the top position on the list of the political party or coalition of parties that receives the majority vote is appointed president. The individual next on the same list becomes the deputy president.</p>
<p>The 220-member National Assembly is elected on a two-level constituency: 130 candidates from a single national constituency and 90 candidates from 18 provincial constituencies (five per province). The national assembly is unicameral.</p>
<h2>Advantages and weaknesses</h2>
<p>There are several <a href="https://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/es/esd/esd02/esd02b">advantages</a> to the closed-list proportional representation system.</p>
<p>One is its simplicity. The design of ballot papers allows even illiterate voters to make effective choices. It is also fair in that political parties get seats according to the proportion of votes that they receive at the polls. </p>
<p>It also promotes inclusiveness. It ensures that political, gender, ethnic and other minorities are not excluded from the legislature.</p>
<p>But, as a <a href="https://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/es/esd/esd02/esd02b">political scientist</a> and a student of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-covid-19-cant-be-blamed-for-angolas-failure-to-have-local-governance-144685">Angolan politics</a>, I am of the view that the current system undermines voters’ ability to elect political representatives effectively.</p>
<p>Firstly, fusing executive and legislative elections prevents voters from splitting their votes for the presidency and parliament. This forces them to choose a president and a deputy president from the party with the majority in the national assembly. </p>
<p>Secondly, the electoral system prevents voters from electing the president directly. Yet Angola has a presidential system of government with an all-powerful presidency that exercises executive powers without effective checks and balances.</p>
<p>Here Angola deviates from the norm. In countries that adopt presidential systems of government, the executive does not get its legitimacy from the legislature. That is why it is elected directly by the voters.</p>
<p>Thirdly, voters cast ballots for party lists rather than individual candidates. This arrangement privileges political parties rather than individuals in the political process. This means that, once elected, representatives are not personally accountable to the electorate because they aren’t directly linked to any territorial constituency. Rather they are beholden to party leaders who hold the power to compile the party list. </p>
<p>This results in a massive accountability deficit in the political system.</p>
<p>In addition, the use of party lists bars independent candidates from standing for political office unless they are included in a party list that has been cleared to run in the elections. But giving effect to this is extremely difficult. Realpolitik prevents parties from choosing independent candidates at the expense of party members in good standing.</p>
<p>There is also the practical use of the two-level constituency – provincial and national – instead of a single national constituency. </p>
<p>The adoption of the 18 provincial constituencies, which goes back to 1992, is premised on the idea that all provinces need to be represented at the national assembly. But this does not make sense, as Angola is a unitary state, with a unicameral parliament. </p>
<p>Among Lusophone countries, which inherited this system from Portugal, Angola is the only country that introduced the national and provincial level constituency system.</p>
<p>There are no provincial legislatures and no functional or formal distinction between parliamentarians elected at the provincial level and those elected at the national level. They all represent the whole nation, and should all be be elected from a single national constituency.</p>
<h2>An alternative system</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://aceproject.org/ero-en/topics/electoral-systems/E6ElectoralSystemsHorowitz.pdf">broad</a> <a href="https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/chapters/electoral-system-design/electoral-system-design-the-new-international-idea-handbook-summary.pdf">literature</a> on electoral systems acknowledges that there is <a href="http://metisportals.ca/elec/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/choosing-electoral-systems.pdf">no single best electoral system</a>. </p>
<p>There are several types of electoral systems and each has advantages as well as disadvantages. </p>
<p>A system that best serves democracy in one country might not work in another country. Hence, the best electoral system for a country must be informed by its particular history, social cleavages and political realities. </p>
<p>In the case of Angola, this means breaking with the past to end the persistence of adverse practices. These include the unchecked executive power, concentration of state resources in the hands of a small politically connected elite, <a href="https://www.icij.org/investigations/luanda-leaks/">widespread corruption</a>, a culture of impunity in which those in authority get away without being punished, and a government that is not responsive to the needs of the population.</p>
<p>In my view, the best way to address these issues is reforming the current system. This would require a return to the direct election of the president by voters and the reinstatement of a constituency for the representation of Angolan communities abroad. This was <a href="https://publicofficialsfinancialdisclosure.worldbank.org/sites/fdl/files/assets/law-library-files/Angola_Constitutional%20Law_1992_en.pdf">stipulated</a> in the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Angola, an interim document revoked in 2010.</p>
<p>In addition, the 18 provincial-level constituencies should be scrapped. There is no practical reason for their existence. A constituency element should be added to ensure the direct election of deputies and compensatory seats introduced for the representation of political parties in proportion to their share of the votes. </p>
<p>The resulting mixed electoral system would promote accountability through the direct election of representatives from constituencies. It would also ensure the proportional representation of political parties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Albano Agostinho Troco receives funding from the National Research Foundation and the British Academy under the SA/UK Bilateral Chair in Political Theory.</span></em></p>Angola needs a mixed electoral system. This would promote accountability through the direct election of representatives from constituencies.Albano Agostinho Troco, NRF/British Academy Postdoctoral Research Fellow under the SA-UK Bilateral Chair in Political Theory, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572902021-06-10T14:56:29Z2021-06-10T14:56:29ZDutch elections show the promise and perils of proportional representation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405401/original/file-20210609-14971-szflz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6016%2C3413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People stand in line waiting to vote in the Hague in the Netherlands.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Dutch elections were <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/17/mark-rutte-s-party-wins-most-seats-in-dutch-general-election-exit-poll-suggests">held almost three months ago</a>, but it’s still unclear who will form the next government. This is normal in the Netherlands, <a href="https://www.expatica.com/nl/living/gov-law-admin/netherlands-political-system-100756/">where all governments are coalitions because no party ever wins a majority of the seats</a>. </p>
<p>After the March 2017 elections, the new government wasn’t installed until October, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government-idUSKBN1CV15D">record-setting 225 days after the elections</a>. That government included four parties; the new government now being negotiated is likely to include five or more.</p>
<p>With the single member plurality electoral system — known as “first past the post” — Canadians are used to quick results. On the rare occasions that no single party wins a majority of seats, the parties quickly determine if they can govern as a minority with support from other parties, as the current Liberal government is doing. </p>
<p>The first-past-the-post system, however, distorts the results. <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-election-frustrations-for-the-greens-highlight-electoral-system-flaws-again-125621">In the 2019 Canadian election</a>, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won 46 per cent of seats with only 33 per cent of the votes while the Conservatives won 36 per cent of seats with 34 per cent of the votes. </p>
<p>Despite winning more than twice as many votes as the Bloc Québecois, with nine per cent of seats at under eight per cent of the votes, the NDP won only seven per cent of seats, the Greens won only three seats despite winning almost seven per cent of the votes, and no other party won seats. </p>
<h2>Proportional representation</h2>
<p>By contrast, elections in the Netherlands operate with pure proportional representation, with no threshold. To win one of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament, a party needs only 1/150th of the votes — currently around 70,000. </p>
<p>Most countries using proportional representation have an electoral threshold, often five per cent, so parties winning less than that don’t win seats. Because so few votes are needed to win a seat in the Dutch parliament, <a href="https://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/verkiezingen/detail/TK20210317">37 parties ran candidates and 17 parties elected representatives</a>.</p>
<p>Had Canada used the Dutch system in 2019, the Conservatives would have had a few more seats than the Liberals (who would have had far fewer seats), the Bloc would have had fewer, the NDP and Greens would have had more, and even Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party would have won a few seats. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-canadian-election-results-would-have-looked-like-with-electoral-reform-125848">What the Canadian election results would have looked like with electoral reform</a>
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<p>This splintered political landscape in the Netherlands is relatively new. As recently as 2012, the government could be formed with only two parties: Mark Rutte’s conservative Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie party, known as VVD (41 seats) in coalition with Labour (38 seats). In earlier years, the largest party often won 50 or more seats. </p>
<p>The fact that every vote counts means that participation in Dutch elections is high: 79 per cent voted in March, a slight dip from the 82 per cent who voted in the previous elections — but far above the <a href="https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=turn&document=index&lang=e">67 per cent of Canadian voters who turned out in 2019 and the 59 per cent who voted in 2008</a>.</p>
<h2>New ideas, emerging trends</h2>
<p>Proportional representation also means that new ideas and societal trends quickly enter parliament. A Green party and an anti-immigration party both won seats as early as the 1980s, and the new Dutch parliament includes <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/02/caged-bunnies-budgies-may-outlawed-netherlands/">representatives of an animal rights party</a>, several religious parties, a party for pensioners, a farmer’s party and <a href="https://voltnederland.org/">three members of the pan-European party Volt</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in a suit and tie waves" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405390/original/file-20210609-14704-16vyxfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte arrives for an EU summit in Sweden in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)</span></span>
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<p>With proportional representation combined with a divided society, one might expect chaos and instability. Yet the opposite is often true: Rutte has been in office since 2010 and is widely expected to continue as prime minister, despite <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mark-rutte-netherlands-europe-elections-338dc3293ec7bf1ac206c9f3659caea1">parliament passing a motion of censure against him</a>.</p>
<p>Because VVD won the most votes, the party won’t drop him as leader. And the other potential governing parties do not appear to have the appetite or the numbers to cobble together the complex coalition required to govern without the VVD. </p>
<p>Similarly, it took a <a href="https://time.com/6053465/israel-netanyahu-coalition/">coalition of eight parties in Israel to oust prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu</a>, who had been prime minister since 2009. It’s common to see only incremental change rather than huge swings under proportional representation systems.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-12-years-of-netanyahu-heres-what-to-expect-from-a-new-coalition-government-in-israel-162054">After 12 years of Netanyahu, here's what to expect from a new coalition government in Israel</a>
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<p>By contrast, in first-past-the-post systems, small changes in vote share can lead to large swings. In the 2004 federal election, for example, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives dropped from 38 per cent to 30 per cent of votes, but <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=eim/issue16&document=p9&lang=e">actually increased their seats, from 78 to 99</a>. The Liberal vote share, meantime, dipped slightly from 41 per cent to 37 per cent but they fell dramatically, from 172 to 135 seats.</p>
<h2>Low-drama elections</h2>
<p>Elections under proportional representation tend to be less dramatic because the seats accurately reflect the vote share — though in the 2017 Dutch elections, Labour suffered a historic defeat.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Geert Wilders with a microphone in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405395/original/file-20210609-14856-121blza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders addresses the media at the Belgian federal parliament in Brussels in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)</span></span>
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<p>It dropped from 25 per cent of the votes (38 seats) to under six per cent (nine seats), which they repeated this year. </p>
<p>Geert Wilders dropped from 20 seats to 17 while the upstart Forum for Democracy party grew from two in the 2017 elections to eight seats with five per cent of the vote — a far cry from the results of the 2019 provincial elections, where Forum rocketed to first place with almost 15 per of the votes. </p>
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<img alt="Thierry Baudet casts a ballot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405396/original/file-20210609-15050-3jycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Thierry Baudet, leader of the populist party Forum for Democracy, casts his ballot in the European elections in 2019 in Amsterdam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
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<p>Forum leader Thierry Baudet’s <a href="https://more.bham.ac.uk/populism-in-action/2021/01/15/the-dutch-far-right-in-2021-a-view-from-the-ground/">controversial statements and conspiracy theories</a> dimmed his prospects. </p>
<p>But he won some votes by campaigning against COVID-19 lockdown measures, while also enabling a new right-wing party led by two former Forum members to win three seats.</p>
<h2>Low geographic representation</h2>
<p>Pure proportional representation does not ensure geographic representation. The Netherlands has a <a href="https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/dashboard-bevolking">population of over 17 million people</a> in an area smaller than Nova Scotia. Yet even in such a small country, there are regional differences, and the existing electoral rules do a poor job of translating those differences into seats. </p>
<p>For example, while every one of Canada’s 338 MPs represents a specific geographic constituency, the most recent Dutch elections resulted in only one representative each from two of its 11 provinces; most representatives come from the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Randstad">dominant Randstad</a>.</p>
<p>This problem inspired one of the recommendations of the <a href="https://www.staatscommissieparlementairstelsel.nl/actueel/nieuws/2019/07/18/download-the-english-translation-of-the-final-report-of-the-state-commission">parliamentary commission on the state of democracy in the Netherlands</a> — introducing a personal and regional component by assigning greater weight to preference votes. Dutch voters can vote for any candidate running for any party, but candidates now need one-quarter of the general threshold (approximately 17,500 votes) to jump ahead of their colleagues on the party list and win a seat.</p>
<p>The outgoing government supports the commission’s proposal, and if the new parliament agrees, it <a href="https://www.internetconsultatie.nl/burgerforum">could be in place in time for the 2023 elections</a>. By contrast, various proposals for proportional representation in Canada have so far failed to become law, despite considerable public support and a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-electoral-reform-proportional-representation-1.5225616">promise from Trudeau that the 2015 elections would be the last held under the first-past-the-post system</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157290/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Willem Maas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The March elections in the Netherlands, and the fact that a government still hasn’t been formed, illustrate both the benefits and problems with proportional representation.Willem Maas, Jean Monnet Chair and Professor of Political Science, Socio-Legal Studies, and Public & International Affairs, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1560012021-05-03T12:04:15Z2021-05-03T12:04:15ZWhy Trump is more likely to win in the GOP than to take his followers to a new third party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397440/original/file-20210427-21-1eefrnx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C51%2C5691%2C3776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of former President Trump gather outside of Trump Tower during a rare visit Trump made to his New York offices, March 8, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-former-president-trump-gather-outside-of-news-photo/1306020725?adppopup=true">Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former President Donald Trump has claimed at times that he’ll start a third political party called the Patriot Party. In fact, most Americans – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/329639/support-third-political-party-high-point.aspx">62% in a recent poll</a> – say they’d welcome the chance to vote for a third party. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.fairvote.org/proportional_representation_voting_systems">In almost any other democracy</a>, those Americans would get their wish. In the Netherlands, for instance, even a small “third” party called the <a href="https://www.partyfortheanimals.com/">Party for the Animals</a> – composed of animal rights supporters, not dogs and cats – won 3.2% of the legislative vote in 2017 and earned five seats, out of 150, in the national legislature. </p>
<p>Yet in the U.S., candidates for the House of Representatives from the Libertarian Party, the most successful of U.S. minor parties, won not a single House seat in 2020, though Libertarians got over a million House votes. Neither did the Working Families Party, <a href="http://ballot-access.org/2021/01/23/january-2021-ballot-access-news-print-edition/">with 390,000 votes</a>, or the Legalize Marijuana Now Party, <a href="https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/01/29/77-third-party-candidates-received-more-votes-than-the-winners-margin-of-victory-in-2020/">whose U.S. Senate candidate from Minnesota won 185,000 votes</a>. </p>
<p>Why don’t American voters have more than two viable parties to choose among in elections, when almost every other democratic nation in the world does?</p>
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<img alt="12 head shots of Trump and Biden voters are arrayed in a 4 by 3 grid, many wearing masks with political slogans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397441/original/file-20210427-19-xs8rxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397441/original/file-20210427-19-xs8rxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397441/original/file-20210427-19-xs8rxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397441/original/file-20210427-19-xs8rxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397441/original/file-20210427-19-xs8rxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397441/original/file-20210427-19-xs8rxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397441/original/file-20210427-19-xs8rxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">These voters supported either Biden or Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Yet 62% of Americans say they’d like the option of voting for a third-party candidate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-november-01-2020-news-photo/1229402211?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan, Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Plurality rules</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/faculty/hershey-marjorie.html">I’ve found in researching political parties</a>, the American electoral system is the primary reason why the U.S. is the sole major democracy with only two parties consistently capable of electing public officials. Votes are counted in most American elections using plurality rules, or “winner take all.” Whoever gets the most votes wins the single seat up for election.</p>
<p>Other democracies choose to count some or all of their votes differently. Instead of, say, California being divided into 53 U.S. House districts, each district electing one representative, the whole state could become a multi-member district, and all the voters in California would be asked to choose all 53 U.S. House members <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Proportional_representation">using proportional representation</a>. </p>
<p>Each party would present a list of its candidates for all 53 seats, and you, as the voter, would select one of the party slates. If your party got 40% of the votes in the state, then it would elect 40% of the representatives – the first 21 candidates listed on the party’s slate. This is the system used in <a href="https://www.fairvote.org/proportional_representation_voting_systems">21 of the 28 countries in Western Europe</a>, including Germany and Spain.</p>
<p>In such a system – depending on the minimum percentage, or threshold, a party needed to win one seat – it would make sense for even a small party to run candidates for the U.S. House, reasoning that if they got just 5% of the vote, they could win 5% of the state’s U.S. House seats. </p>
<p>So if the Legalize Marijuana Now party won 5% of the vote in California, two or three of the party’s candidates would become House members, ready to argue in Congress for marijuana legalization. In fact, until the 1950s, several U.S. states had multi-member districts. </p>
<p>Under the current electoral system, however, if the Legalize Marijuana Now party gets 5% of the state’s House vote, it wins nothing. It has spent a lot of money and effort with no officeholders to show for it. This disadvantage for small parties is also <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Electoral_College">built into the Electoral College</a>, where a candidate needs a majority of electoral votes to win the presidency – and no non-major-party candidate ever has.</p>
<h2>Parties run the show</h2>
<p>There’s another factor working against third-party success: State legislatures make the rules about how candidates and parties get on the ballot, and state legislatures are <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures">made up almost exclusively of Republicans and Democrats</a>. They have no desire to increase their competition. </p>
<p>So a minor-party candidate typically needs many more signatures on a petition to get on the ballot than major-party candidates do, <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2019/07/01/progress-stalls-for-minor-parties-to-get-on-state-ballots">and often also pays a filing fee</a> that major party candidates don’t necessarily have to pay. </p>
<p>Further, although many Americans call themselves “independents,” pollsters find that most of these “independents” actually lean toward either the Democrats or the Republicans, and their voting choices are <a href="https://theconversation.com/partisanship-runs-deep-in-america-even-among-independents-104884">almost as intensely partisan as those who do claim a party affiliation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people voting in a large public space." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397577/original/file-20210428-13-14u1efc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even though many Americans call themselves ‘independent,’ their voting choices are almost as intensely partisan as those who say they are Democrats or Republicans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-vote-at-a-polling-place-set-up-for-early-voting-news-photo/1283382520?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Party identification is the single most important determinant of people’s voting choices; <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">in 2020</a>, 94% of Republicans voted for Donald Trump, and the same percentage of Democrats voted for Joe Biden. </p>
<p>The small number of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/">true independents</a> in American politics are much less likely to show interest in politics and to vote. So it would not be easy for a third party to get Americans to put aside their existing partisan allegiance.</p>
<h2>Hard to get there from here</h2>
<p>The idea of a “center” party has great appeal – in theory. In practice, few agree on what “centrist” means. Lots of people, when asked this question, envision a “center” party that reflects all their own views and none of the views they disagree with.</p>
<p>That’s where a Trump Party does have one advantage. Prospective Trump Party supporters do agree on what they stand for: Donald Trump.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s newsletter explains what’s going on with the coronavirus pandemic. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=coronavirus-going-on">Subscribe now</a>.</em>]</p>
<p>Yet there’s an easier path for Trump supporters than fighting the U.S. electoral system, unfriendly ballot access rules and entrenched party identification. That’s to take over the Republican Party. In fact, they’re very close to doing so now.</p>
<p>Trump retains a powerful hold over the party’s policies. His adviser, Jason Miller, stated, “<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ex-rnc-chair-urges-trump-voters-leave-gop-form-new-party-theres-door-1571010">Trump effectively is the Republican Party</a>.” This Trump Party is very different from Ronald Reagan’s GOP. That’s not surprising; the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Party-Politics-in-America/Hershey/p/book/9780367472573">U.S. major parties have always been permeable and vulnerable to takeover by factions</a>.</p>
<p>There are good reasons for Americans to want more major parties. It’s hard for two parties to capture the diversity of views in a nation of more than 300 million people. </p>
<p>But American politics would look very different if the country had a viable multi-party system, in which voters could choose from among, say, a Socialist Party, a White Supremacist Party and maybe even a Party for the Animals. </p>
<p>To get there, Congress and state legislatures would need to make fundamental changes in American elections, converting single-member districts with winner-take-all rules into multi-member districts with proportional representation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156001/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjorie Hershey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The majority of Americans say they’d like to be able to vote for a third party. Donald Trump says he might start one. But neither is likely to happen.Marjorie Hershey, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483282020-10-19T00:28:49Z2020-10-19T00:28:49ZLabour’s single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ’s electoral system is working<p>Even as the results rolled in on election night there were mutterings that a parliamentary majority controlled by one political party is somehow inconsistent with the spirit of <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>. The magnitude of the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party’s victory will no doubt encourage that view. </p>
<p>Wrong. In at least three respects the election result is exactly what electoral reform was about. </p>
<h2>The mandate</h2>
<p>For the better part of the 20th century single-party majority governments in Aotearoa New Zealand were formed by parties that won a minority of the popular vote. The best example (or worst, depending on your view) was in 1993, when Jim Bolger’s National Party wound up with a manufactured parliamentary majority based on just <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/historical-events/18901993-general-elections">35% of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>You need to go all the way back to 1951 to find the last time a governing party won a majority of the vote. </p>
<p>But you can’t get away with this under MMP. Ardern has already racked up Labour’s highest share of the vote since the 51.3% Peter Fraser’s Labour Party won in 1946. It’s also the best performance of any party under MMP. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-final-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance</a>
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<p>She’s done it at a time when voting for a party other than Labour or National is both possible and pretty normal. If, once special votes have been counted, Labour clears 50% of the vote Ardern will have achieved something no prime minister has done in 70 years. </p>
<p>MMP was designed to accurately translate people’s votes into parliamentary seats — and that is exactly what it has done.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A government for all: Jacinda Ardern affirms her consensus credentials in her election victory speech.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Policy moderation</h2>
<p>Ardern is a centrist, a <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-vows-to-govern-for-every-new-zealander-in-victory-speech.html">self-avowed</a> consensus politician. Her single-party majority government will not behave as the Labour and National administrations of the 1980s and 1990s did. </p>
<p>New Zealanders <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/fpp-to-mmp/putting-it-to-the-vote">changed the electoral rules</a> because they were sick of <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/1st-term-4th-labour-government">radical swings</a> of the policy pendulum driven by single-party majority governments ruling on the basis of a minority of the vote. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election</a>
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<p>If MMP was designed to do anything it was to lock in policy moderation. In fact, in the early 1990s, the Treasury was concerned to implement its favoured neo-liberal reforms before the electoral system changed, precisely because it knew policy radicalism would be next to impossible under MMP. </p>
<p>Where the David Lange-led Labour and Bolger-led National governments of the late 20th century were doctrinaire and divisive, Ardern will be pragmatic and focused on results. For better or worse, she knows exactly where the median voter lives.</p>
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<h2>Diversity of representation</h2>
<p>For reasonable people, one of the purposes of an electoral system is to produce legislatures that broadly reflect the people who choose them. On at least one count MMP is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123125481/incoming-parliament-set-to-be-our-most-inclusive-with-increase-in-women-people-of-colour-and-lgbtq-members">heading in the right direction</a>. </p>
<p>In 1996, the first MMP parliament doubled the presence of women in the House of Representatives. By 2017 the proportion of women parliamentarians stood at 40%. That figure got another bump on Saturday, pushing the number of women in the 120-member legislature from 49 to 56. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
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<p>Nearly half (46.5%) of all parliamentarians are now women, the vast majority of them — 73% — members of the Labour or Green parties. This lifts New Zealand from 20th on the <a href="https://data.ipu.org/women-ranking?month=10&year=2020">international league table</a> to ninth (two spots behind Sweden).</p>
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<h2>MMP was the winner</h2>
<p>This election will change the way politics is done, discussed and practised in Aotearoa NZ due to three significant developments:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Labour has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428600/the-red-tide-labour-wins-15-seats-held-by-national">won big</a> in the towns and in the country. National can no longer claim to be the party of rural people, and Labour can no longer be painted as the party of urban élites. In fact, the fundamental question confronting National now is: what kind of party are we?</p></li>
<li><p>Once special votes are counted, it is possible Labour will have over 50% of the vote. Not only will it be the first time this has happened since 1951, it will also mean most New Zealanders have chosen a politics of communitarianism over a politics of individualism.</p></li>
<li><p>For the first time in our history more people <a href="https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics">voted before</a> polling day than on the day itself (a <em>lot</em> more — advance voting this year reached the equivalent of 70% of all of the votes cast in 2017). The very nature of elections has changed, meaning the laws banning political activity on polling day need to be revised. (In the process, the problem of setting an election date to avoid an All Blacks Test might be avoided.) </p></li>
</ul>
<p>There is more to be digested, including that this parliament contains no small-party tail to <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/stop-the-tail-from-wagging-the-dog">wag the big party’s dog</a>. But right now one thing is clear: MMP gets two ticks for its performance this year. It has done exactly what it was designed to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The people have spoken, and MMP has delivered the right result — even if it means Labour governs alone.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1406682020-06-12T16:46:52Z2020-06-12T16:46:52ZConstitutional Court ruling heralds changes to South Africa’s electoral system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341530/original/file-20200612-153867-1on1m41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Deaan Vivier/Netwerk24/Gallo Images/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ultimately, it took <a href="https://afternoonexpress.co.za/guests/princess-chantal-revell/3158">Chantal Revell</a>, a descendant of the Khoi and San royalty, to initiate a change in South Africa’s electoral system. This has been a contentious subject for almost 20 years. An official task team was set up to resolve it and it has gripped the attention of opposition parties, elevating the subject to an election campaign issue.</p>
<p>South Africa’s Constitutional Court <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2020/11.html">has ruled</a> that the country’s Electoral Act is unconstitutional on the grounds that it doesn’t allow citizens to be elected to the national and provincial legislatures as independent candidates. The case was brought by the New Nation Movement. This civil society group argued that the act infringed on the right to exercise individual political choices. Chantal Revell was the second applicant in the case. </p>
<p>Constitutional Court Justice Mbuyiseli Madlanga’s verdict is possibly a defining moment. By enabling independent candidates to contest provincial and national elections it promises to change various aspects of South Africa’s life. The ability of independent candidates to stand in national elections offers a wide choice that could entice apathetic eligible voters into the process and attract others away from established parties. The primacy of individuals over parties, however, might also weaken associational life built upon civic values in favour of divisive identities. </p>
<h2>A hotbed of controversy</h2>
<p>The controversy around South Africa’s electoral stemmed from the <a href="http://pmg-assets.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">recommendations made by the electoral task team</a>, led by former opposition leader <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/frederik-van-zyl-slabbert">Frederik Van Zyl Slabbert</a>, in January 2003. Previous elections were administered by interim legislation and permanent legislation was required in time for the next election in 2004. </p>
<p>The task team was mandated to probe whether the interim legislation, which prescribed voting for political parties – that is <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">proportional representation</a> – should be made permanent or revised.</p>
<p>Composed of various experts from government, South Africa’s electoral commission, the academy and the legal profession, the task team offered contrasting proposals. Most wanted the electoral system changed to a mixed one – providing for direct election of constituency representatives and for a political party. </p>
<p>Others wanted to retain the system of voting for parties, which then decide whom to send to parliament. Parliament adopted the minority proposal. Retaining the proportional representation system met all four principles that the constitution envisaged for an electoral system: fairness, inclusiveness, simplicity and accountability. </p>
<p>The majority view was unhappy that proportional representation fell short on enabling individual accountability. Nonetheless, it admitted that collective accountability was afforded through periodic elections.</p>
<p>Parliament was not the only interest group persuaded by the minority view. The public, too, was enamoured with voting for parties that decided who to send to parliament. Part of the electoral task team’s activities involved a public opinion survey undertaken by the Human Sciences Research Council. </p>
<p>The survey <a href="http://pmg-assets.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">showed</a> that between 74% and 81% of South Africans felt that the proportional representation system was fair. They thought it enabled equal representation and made sure that parliament was as inclusive as possible, especially in relation to gender and race.</p>
<p>But there was a feeling that members of parliament should be tied to particular constituencies. This was insignificant, though, in light of the general acceptance of the electoral system. </p>
<p>Consequently, there was hardly any popular outcry about the inappropriateness of the electoral system.</p>
<h2>The Zuma factor</h2>
<p>The brouhaha over the electoral system coincided with the election of Jacob Zuma as president <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/jacob-zuma-presidency-2009-2017-march">in 2009</a>. Implicated in corruption and fresh from a rape acquittal, Zuma was a perfect picture of notoriety. So long as parties provided a fairly acceptable slate of candidates, voters did not mind much that they didn’t elect them directly. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341538/original/file-20200612-153812-dis30z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341538/original/file-20200612-153812-dis30z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341538/original/file-20200612-153812-dis30z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341538/original/file-20200612-153812-dis30z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341538/original/file-20200612-153812-dis30z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341538/original/file-20200612-153812-dis30z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341538/original/file-20200612-153812-dis30z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Princess Chantal Revell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
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<p>It was the governing African National Congress’s (ANC’s) reaction to public disapproval of Zuma, and its consequent misuse of its parliamentary majority to stifle law enforcement agencies, that turned popular opinion against the proportional representation system. The ANC showed how powerless voters were under the system. It was also arrogant to the point of offending public sensibilities. </p>
<p>Zuma’s subsequent misconduct simply emboldened popular sentiment in favour of voters directly electing their own government leaders.</p>
<p>Enabling independent candidates to contest provincial and national elections promises to go some way towards this end. </p>
<h2>The impact</h2>
<p>One possible outcome is that a wider choice of contestants could reverse the declining interest in the electoral process.</p>
<p>For the 2019 election alone, for instance, more than 9 million eligible voters <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html">did not register to vote</a>. The 26,756,649 who registered represented only 74.6% of the total voting age population. Even among those who registered to vote, only 66% of them showed up to cast their ballot on the day. This was a significant drop in turn-out rate from 73.48% in the previous election. </p>
<p>New entrants into the electoral contest, therefore, could entice the uninterested eligible voters into the process.</p>
<p>As for the current parties, the entry of new contestants presents mixed fortunes. Their current voters could abandon them for new entrants. Some voters aren’t entirely happy with these parties, but vote for them because they lack alternatives. Electoral support for existing parties could drop. </p>
<p>Another possible outcome could be that parties that <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-03-14-the-ancs-electoral-list-a-k-a-the-usual-suspects/">sneak dishonourable candidates onto their lists</a> could be forced to improve their nomination process. This could be the trigger the ANC needs to prioritise moral rectitude in the selection of party candidates. </p>
<p>But it’s uncertain whether this will happen.</p>
<p>Independents could potentially tilt the balance of power. But the extent of that shift is unclear. As a result of Madlanga’s ruling the country is likely to have a mixed ballot – constituency and proportional representation – in the next national election. </p>
<p>This would simply be a replication of what currently happens at the local government level. </p>
<p>Independents won’t be able to contest the proportional representation ballots. These can only be cast for political parties. This means independents, assuming the 400 parliamentary seats are shared equally between constituency and proportional representation, will only contest 200 seats. </p>
<p>It’s highly unlikely therefore that independents will ever be in the majority to elect a president among them. Because they contest both ballots, parties are the only ones that could possibly get majority support, enabling them to elect a president from their midst.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341532/original/file-20200612-153817-ptuhwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341532/original/file-20200612-153817-ptuhwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341532/original/file-20200612-153817-ptuhwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341532/original/file-20200612-153817-ptuhwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341532/original/file-20200612-153817-ptuhwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341532/original/file-20200612-153817-ptuhwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341532/original/file-20200612-153817-ptuhwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The late Frederik Van Zyl Slabbert.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Porter/Fairfax Media via Getty Images</span></span>
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<p>It’s not guaranteed, however, that voters will cast both proportional and constituency ballots. If a voter chooses a constituency candidate on strength of character, it is unlikely that the same voter would vote blindly on the proportional representation ballot. Unless the party has an equally credible list of leaders, it is unlikely to get the proportional representation ballot. </p>
<p>While voting for a trustworthy party candidate, voters can spoil the proportional representation ballot as a statement of disapproval against the candidates on the party list.</p>
<h2>Hurdles to clear</h2>
<p>What might protect established parties against competition from independents is the likelihood of poor organisational infrastructure, inexperience and money. Their success is not guaranteed.</p>
<p>Equally worth noting is that this new beginning may herald even more divisiveness in South African politics. Political parties often bring together diverse individuals around common values. They transcend primordial identities and promote overarching civic identities. The applicant who instigated this victory at the Constitutional Court, Chantal Revell, hopes to mobilise her ethnic group into political support. </p>
<p>Rather than worry, perhaps one should welcome Revell’s potential candidature as a test of the salience of ethnic politics in the Western Cape. This ruling portends multiple possibilities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140668/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mcebisi Ndletyana receives funding from the National Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences. He is the author of the recently published book, Anatomy of the ANC in Power: Insights from Port Elizabeth, 1990 – 2019.</span></em></p>South Africa’s Constitutional Court verdict is possibly a defining moment for South Africa’s electoral system.Mcebisi Ndletyana, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1393202020-05-26T14:18:26Z2020-05-26T14:18:26ZLesotho’s new leader faces enormous hurdles ensuring peace and political stability<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337376/original/file-20200525-106823-ny354.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lesotho's former Prime Minister Tom Thabane, left, and his successor Moeketsi Majoro, at the latter's swearing in ceremony at the Royal Palace in Maseru.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Molise Molise/AFP-GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tom Thabane (81), the embattled veteran Lesotho politician, has finally bowed to pressure to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/world/africa/lesotho-thomas-thabane-resigns.html">resign</a> as the Prime Minister of the politically volatile southern African nation of 2.2 million. This comes at least two years before the end of his term. </p>
<p>But, will his replacement by <a href="https://www.gov.ls/people/honourable-dr-moeketsi-majoro/">Moeketsi Majoro</a> (58) enable Lesotho to move in a more progressive direction? Majoro is an economist, former executive at the International Monetary Fund as well as the country’s former finance minister. He was recently <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52707752">appointed to lead</a> the governing coalition of the majority <a href="https://www.facebook.com/All-Basotho-Convention-Page-713458675486895/">All Basotho Convention</a>, and the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/258295724248074/">Democratic Congress of Lesotho</a>, ahead of Thabane’s resignation.</p>
<p>The Thabane <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/will-ramaphosas-new-reform-timetable-save-thabanes-skin">saga</a>, revolving around allegations that he was party to a conspiracy to murder his then estranged wife, and that his new wife interferes in state matters, has been dragging on for more than a year. </p>
<p>These events have fed into a the raging political conflict within his ruling party, All Basotho Convention, and its governing coalition with the Democratic Congress of Lesotho. This has provided a major distraction to any attempt to address the country’s <a href="https://theodora.com/wfbcurrent/lesotho/lesotho_economy.html">massive developmental problems</a>. </p>
<p>But, setting Lesotho on a significantly different political trajectory will not be easy.</p>
<p>Majoro’s installation as Prime Minister is welcome. But it does not guarantee much needed political stability in an era of complex coalition politics in which none of Lesotho’s parties has a clear majority. Nor does it guarantee internal peace when the military and police both remain significant political players, with linkages to different political parties and actors.</p>
<p>Questions have correctly been posed whether Majoro, a technocrat with a great deal of international experience, has the political skills to hold his governing coalition together. For the moment, Thabane remains leader of the All Basotho Congress, and cannot be guaranteed to lend his support to the new government.</p>
<h2>Balancing act</h2>
<p>Thabane can be expected to use his position to try to secure <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lesothos-constitution-says-about-immunity-for-a-sitting-prime-minister-133089">immunity for himself from prosecution</a> for his alleged role in the murder of his estranged wife, Lipopelo Thabane (58). She was shot dead in <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2017-06-15-estranged-wife-of-lesothos-incoming-pm-shot-dead/">June 2017</a> - two days before he was sworn in as the Prime Minister. Maesaiah Liabiloe Ramoholi (42), the woman he was living with at the time, and eventually married, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-lesothos-constitution-says-about-immunity-for-a-sitting-prime-minister-133089">on trial for the murder</a>. Thabane was also later charged with the murder.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-efforts-to-stabilise-lesotho-have-failed-less-intervention-may-be-more-effective-137499">South Africa's efforts to stabilise Lesotho have failed. Less intervention may be more effective</a>
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<p>Majoro must know that if he concedes this immunity, he will lose a great deal of domestic and global credibility. But if doesn’t show some leniency he may lose the support of a disgruntled element of his party which continues to back Thabane.</p>
<p>How this plays out may influence whether Majoro can secure the leadership of the party at its next congress, expected in February 2021. </p>
<p>This may not be plain sailing. One of the big factors will be the willingness of the deputy leader of the party, Nqosa Mahao, to support him. </p>
<p>Mahao defeated Majoro for leadership position in the party in February 2020. Though both will now want Thabane out of the way (a conviction in court would be convenient), it’s not clear whether they will work cooperatively together.</p>
<h2>Key challenges</h2>
<p>Beyond the immediate political problems, there are three major issues which need to be confronted. One is whether the country’s electoral system can be restructured to render the political landscape more predictable. Another is whether a recent tendency for the judiciary to be politicised can be reversed. A third is whether the political entanglements of the police and military can be neutralised. </p>
<p>To appreciate how difficult this may be, it is necessary to
recall that Lesotho is governed by a small elite (military and judicial as well as political), whose members’ knowledge of each other and their families often goes back decades. </p>
<p>In a country where <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/12/18/lesotho-reduces-poverty-but-nearly-half-of-the-population-remains-poor">poverty is intense</a> and resources are so few, personal feuds can easily translate into political issues.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/will-ramaphosas-new-reform-timetable-save-thabanes-skin">National Dialogue process</a>, launched in 2015 under the auspices of the Southern African Development Community, has led to proposals for electoral reform. Introduced in 2002, Lesotho’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272466990_The_Case_of_Lesotho's_Mixed_Member_Proportional_System">Mixed Member Proportional electoral system</a> combines <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/first-past-the-post-voting-explained/">first-past-the-post</a> constituency elections with a national list <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">proportional representation system </a> to ensure proportionality of party representation.</p>
<p>But, its outcomes have been undermined by politicians crossing the floor for personal advantage, upsetting the intended proportionality and encouraging fragmentation of political parties. The Southern African Development Community has now proposed that such floor crossing should be banned, and parties should obtain a minimum proportion of the vote before they secure representation in parliament.</p>
<p>The real issue still to be resolved is how to form political parties which are genuinely constructed around political programmes rather than personal ambitions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/events-in-lesotho-point-to-poor-prospects-for-political-stability-130498">Events in Lesotho point to poor prospects for political stability</a>
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<p>Lesotho’s political parties have often sought to resolve their problems by directing them to the courts. Most recently, the battle for control of the All Basotho Convention led to Thabane throwing his weight behind Acting Chief Justice ‘Maseforo Mahase, whose curious rulings in Thabane’s favour were to be <a href="http://lestimes.com/court-of-appeal-slams-shocking-justice-mahase-conduct/">thrown out by the Court of Appeal</a>, amid popular accusations of her political bias.</p>
<p>It seems unlikely, with Thabane out of the way, that Mahase will now be
confirmed in her position. But, Majoro will need to avoid the temptation of securing the appointment of a crony as the Chief Justice. Prior to Thabane’s politicking, the judiciary had more or less been kept above the political fray. This neutrality now needs to be restored.</p>
<p>Yet the major problem confronting stability in Lesotho is presented by the military and police. They have been a <a href="https://media.africaportal.org/documents/The_Lesotho_Election.pdf">major factor</a> in the country’s politics, stretching back to 1970, when the then Police Mobile Unit backed Prime Minister Leabua Jonathan to <a href="https://uca.edu/politicalscience/dadm-project/sub-saharan-africa-region/lesotho-1966-present/">overthrow the adverse results</a> of the first post-independence election. </p>
<h2>Headache for new PM</h2>
<p>The military’s penchant for <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-lesotho-could-abandon-its-army-and-put-the-money-to-better-use-106179">direct intervention in the political</a> arena has been curtailed by the insistence of South Africa, Southern African the Development Community, and the African Union that <a href="https://theconversation.com/sudan-a-chance-for-the-au-to-refine-support-for-countries-in-crisis-118463">the legitimacy of coups will not be accepted</a>. But this has not stopped governments seeking protection from political opponents by forging strong links with the senior military. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-lesotho-could-abandon-its-army-and-put-the-money-to-better-use-106179">How Lesotho could abandon its army and put the money to better use</a>
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<p>In an era of unstable government coalitions, this has itself become a source of major tension, with incoming governments seeking to counter-balance military leaderships left over by the previous government by cosying up to the police. Determined efforts to neutralise the military have been made via training programmes carried out by, among others, South Africa, the Southern African the Development Community, India, Britain and Zimbabwe. None have yet succeeded.</p>
<p>For all that Majoro may want attend to tackling Covid-19 and the economy, his
biggest headache may yet turn out to be the army.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall has previously received research funding from the National Research Foundation</span></em></p>Moeketsi Majoro’s installation as Prime Minister is welcome. But it does not guarantee much needed political stability in an era of complex coalition politics.Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288082019-12-17T13:06:11Z2019-12-17T13:06:11ZWhat would the British parliament look like under proportional representation?<p>Perhaps the only thing on which Nigel Farage agrees with the Liberal Democrats and Green Party is the need for <a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/nigel-farage-tells-nick-ferrari-plans-post-brexit/">electoral reform</a> in British politics. </p>
<p>More and more politicians in the UK are pitching for a move to proportional representation (PR), an electoral system in which the overall vote share a party wins determines the number of seats in the legislature. This includes some <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-proportional-representation-corbyn-leader-polls-a9249196.html">within the Labour party</a> but not leaders in the Conservative Party, which is doing very well under the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, in which MPs are elected with a majority in local constituencies. </p>
<p>But how would the UK’s December 12 election have turned out under PR? My research has shown how <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269407976_It's_Just_Nice_to_Know_There's_Someone_Close_at_Hand_Representational_Distance_and_Satisfaction_with_Democracy_in_Europe">different electoral systems</a> create distance between the policies preferred by voters and those enacted by political parties that breeds dissatisfaction with democracy. I’ve now analysed the British election result to look at how it might have turned out differently under alternative voting systems. </p>
<p>Any exercise to model an alternative election outcome comes with the major caveat that we don’t know how a different electoral system would affect voting behaviour, especially in the long term. There are also plenty of different flavours of PR. Some, such as the single transferable vote system in Ireland and in local elections in Northern Ireland and Scotland, we can’t model because they would require too much information we don’t have about the different preferences of voters. </p>
<p>I focus here on two PR systems that contain some provisions that would address concerns in the UK about voting for candidates and not just parties: the Dutch and the German electoral system. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-are-disappointed-with-the-election-result-there-are-things-you-can-do-to-help-you-move-on-128883">If you are disappointed with the election result, there are things you can do to help you move on</a>
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<h2>Dutch versus German system</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190258658.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780190258658-e-44">Dutch system</a> is the most proportional because all voters choose from a single national list of candidates, rather than selecting representatives for their local district. Voters pick a party and then their chosen MP from that party. This allows voters to either vote for local candidates or nationally popular figures. Any candidate that receives a certain percentage of the vote wins a seat in the parliament.</p>
<p>In contrast, the German mixed-member system <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190258658.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780190258658-e-37">allocates half of the seats</a> to constituency candidates under FPTP, and the other half to regional lists of candidates.</p>
<p>To model what would have happened in the UK under each of these electoral systems, let’s assume that the number of seats remains as it is at 650. In the Dutch case, this would mean that a vote share of 0.154% translates into a seat, 15.4% into 10 seats, and so on. </p>
<p>Under the German system, we would need to redraw constituency boundaries to create 325 seats that would still be allocated under FPTP, and create another 325 seats elected from regional lists. A party gets its vote share from these lists translated into seats if it receives at least 5% of the votes, or if it wins three constituencies.</p>
<p>In the real German system, citizens have two votes, one for the constituency contest and one for the list vote. Here, we have to work out the results of both contests from the one vote people cast. My calculations are based on halving the number of seats each party won to give the constituency results, and using their final vote shares to give the list results.</p>
<p>The basic translation of the election result is presented in the graph below. The Conservatives would not have won an outright majority under either PR system, although they would have won more than 300 seats under the German mixed-member system. The Liberal Democrats do better and the Scottish National Party (SNP) worse under both systems. The Brexit Party and the Greens would only benefit under the Dutch system because both fail to reach the German electoral threshold of 5%.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307411/original/file-20191217-58292-1lhnano.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UK 2019 seat distribution, by electoral system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Heinz Brandenburg</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>There are some things that cannot be factored in. For example, as the Dutch system doesn’t use electoral districts, all parties are electable everywhere in the country. That means that English voters could vote for the SNP or Irish voters in Britain could vote for Irish nationalist parties. But also, Northern Irish voters could choose whether to stick with their traditional parties or instead get involved more directly in selecting the UK government by voting for one of the mainstream British parties. </p>
<h2>Searching for a stable majority</h2>
<p>The problem with such a simple comparison of seat allocations under different electoral rules is that it ignores even the most obvious flaw: under PR there are either no or very different needs for tactical voting. </p>
<p>Almost all the poll movement throughout the 2019 election campaign was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197">from smaller to larger parties</a>, from the Brexit Party to the Conservatives, from Liberal Democrats to Labour. This represents voters responding to a squeeze that was being applied by the electoral system.</p>
<p>Under a proportional system, there would have been no incentive for the Brexit Party to field a smaller number of candidates, or for Liberal Democrat or Green voters to contemplate lending their votes to Labour. The election result under PR may have looked much more like the polls a month before the election than like the result on December 12.</p>
<p>With this in mind, the second graph shows how the size and composition of different possible coalitions under the highly proportional Dutch system would have changed from the actual result to a more realistic vote share distribution taken from poll averages in early November. I calculated the averages from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/11/election-opinion-polls-uk-2019-latest-poll-tracker-tories-labour">all polls published</a> between October 30 when parliament voted for an early election to November 8, a couple of days after its dissolution. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307410/original/file-20191217-58302-1wfdkpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307410/original/file-20191217-58302-1wfdkpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307410/original/file-20191217-58302-1wfdkpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307410/original/file-20191217-58302-1wfdkpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307410/original/file-20191217-58302-1wfdkpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307410/original/file-20191217-58302-1wfdkpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307410/original/file-20191217-58302-1wfdkpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Possible coalitions in the UK parliament under Dutch-style PR list.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Heinz Brandenburg</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A Labour/LibDem/SNP/Green coalition would have been slightly weaker before tactical voting took effect – with 324 seats – than it would have been based on the final result at 330. However, such a coalition would have been very difficult to hold together because, while unified on their position on a second EU referendum, the parties would have been at odds over Scottish independence as well as social, economic and fiscal issues. The only solid majority under either scenario would therefore have been an unlikely comeback of the 2010 coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-labour-lose-in-the-north-of-england-128940">Why did Labour lose in the north of England?</a>
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<p>The German system would have produced similarly unstable outcomes, but there would have even been an outside chance of a majority for the two pro-Brexit parties if the Greens had come close but failed to reach a 5% electoral threshold.</p>
<p>No PR system would have been likely to produce a workable majority for any sustainable coalition, but that is a reflection of the highly fragmented multi-party political system in the UK. And with such high levels of fragmentation, some PR systems would not even robustly reflect the fact that the two pro-Brexit parties combined did not win 50% of the vote share.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heinz Brandenburg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A chorus of politicians are once again calling for electoral reform after the UK’s 2019 election.Heinz Brandenburg, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259152019-10-29T22:26:51Z2019-10-29T22:26:51ZWhat Canada can learn from New Zealand on electoral reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299276/original/file-20191029-183120-hpo9pv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C1679%2C1123&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
arrive at the Commonwealth Heads of Government 2018 meeting in Windsor, England, in April 2018. New Zealand moved from the first-past-the-post electoral system in 1993 to a system that helped put Ardern in power.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Frank Augstein)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results of the recent Canadian election don’t reflect the will of the people, and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-making-every-vote-count-its-time-for-electoral-reform/">the situation is reigniting calls</a> for proportional representation.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-canadian-election-results-would-have-looked-like-with-electoral-reform-125848">Some have outlined</a> what Canada’s House of Commons would have looked like under a proportional representation system.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-canadian-election-results-would-have-looked-like-with-electoral-reform-125848">What the Canadian election results would have looked like with electoral reform</a>
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<p>The result would be slightly different under different systems. But whichever way Canada opted to go, the biggest parties would have fewer seats and the smaller parties would have more. There wouldn’t be a single-party majority government. Minority governments, an aberration under Canada’s first-past-the-post system, would be the norm.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/content/Committee/421/ERRE/Brief/BR8555618/br-external/HarewoodWGlenn-e.pdf">One of the criticisms</a> of proportional representation is that it makes stable governments hard to form, and gives small parties too much influence.</p>
<p>But is this true? What actually happens in practice? What happens when a country makes the change from first-past-the-post to proportional representation?</p>
<h2>How the system changed in New Zealand</h2>
<p><a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/graph/35700/results-of-the-1993-referendum-on-the-electoral-system">New Zealand voted</a> to change its electoral system from first-past-the-post to a proportional system in 1993.</p>
<p><a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/fpp-to-mmp">Voters had become disillusioned with the country’s electoral system</a>. They couldn’t see that it provided enough checks and balances on single-party government, and thought it too easily allowed the executive — the goverment’s cabinet ministers — to dominate parliament. </p>
<p>In 1978 and 1981, more people had voted for the Labour party, similar to the Liberal Party in Canada, than for the National party, similar to the Canadian Conservative party. But National won more seats in parliament and formed government.</p>
<p>In 1984, Labour won government and established a <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/document/35678/towards-a-better-democracy">Royal Commission on the Electoral System</a>. The Royal Commission recommended change. Two referendums resulted in the switch to a mixed member proportional (MMP) system in New Zealand, the system recommended by the commission and the one used in Germany.</p>
<h2>Increased the size of parliament</h2>
<p>The first MMP election in New Zealand was held in 1996. The House of Representatives — New Zealand’s parliament has just one House — previously had 99 members elected from single-member geographic electorates, known as ridings in Canada.</p>
<p>To make proportionality mathematically possible under the new system, the size of the House was increased to 120 members.</p>
<p><a href="https://electionresults.org.nz/electionresults_1996/pdf/1.1%20Summary%20of%20overall%20results.pdf.">Sixty-five were elected from single-member first-past-the-post electorates</a>. Fifty-five were elected from national party lists. By 2017 the number of electorate members had gone up to 71 and there were 49 list members. Voters had two votes — one for their electorate member and one for the party list. Here’s how it works:</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8Uk44aykGg4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">New Zealand government.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The list vote determines a party’s overall entitlement to seats in parliament. If a party doesn’t get its proportionate share from its electorate seats, it receives whatever number it needs from the party list to bring it up to its entitlement.</p>
<p><a href="https://electionresults.org.nz/electionresults_1996/pdf/1.1%20Summary%20of%20overall%20results.pdf">In 1996</a>, the largest party, the National party, had an entitlement of 44 seats. It won 30 electorates, meaning it was entitled to an additional 14 members from the list made public before the election.</p>
<p>Parties must receive five per cent of the national list vote to enter parliament. The purpose is to provide proportionality, but not at all costs. The threshold protects against very small and extreme parties.</p>
<p>However, to recognize regional interests and the potential for geographic concentrations in party support, a party is exempt from the five per cent threshold if it wins an electorate seat.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/statistics/sainte-lague-formula.html">Sainte-Laguë Forumula</a> of allocating seats determines exactly how the support for parties who do not meet the five per cent threshold is reapportioned.</p>
<h2>Winston Peters dismissed</h2>
<p>There was a brief period of instability during the first MMP parliament. <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/dismissal-rt-hon-winston-peters">Prime Minister Jenny Shipley dismissed</a> the leader of her coalition partner, Winston Peters, as deputy prime minister for his “refusal to accept cabinet collective responsibility” and his party left the government. The prime minister was able to negotiate support elsewhere and the government served out its term. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299273/original/file-20191029-183120-3oap1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shipley is seen with Prime Minister Jean Chretien in 1999 in Ottawa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>No government since 1996 has lost the confidence of the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>No government has failed to pass its budget.</p>
<p><a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2017/new-zealand-2017-general-election-official-results/">In the last election</a> in 2017, the National party won 56 seats and Labour 46, both short of a majority in the 120-seat House of Representatives. The Green Party, with eight seats, was not willing to support a National-led government.</p>
<p>The New Zealand First Party won nine seats. It negotiated with both the National and Labour parties to see if a government could be formed. </p>
<p>A minority <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/pacific/labours-jacinda-ardern-wins-government-in-new-zealand-20171019-gz45yf">Labour/New Zealand First</a> coalition government was the result, and Jacinda Ardern of the Labour party became prime minister.</p>
<p>A majority for the government is assured through what is known as a <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/NZLP%20%26%20GP%20C%26S%20Agreement%20FINAL.PDF">Confidence and Supply Agreement</a> between the Labour and Green parties.</p>
<p>The Greens got three ministers outside cabinet and certain policy concessions in return for their support. But they’re not bound to support cabinet decisions except in their own portfolios.</p>
<h2>Women, Maori, ethnic minorities represented</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.aspg.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Session-2-Dr-Therese-Arseneau-The-Impact-of-MMP-on-Representation-in-New-Zealands-Parliament.pdf">MMP advocates</a> in New Zealand argued that in a system where every vote makes a difference, parties have an incentive to actively court the votes of people traditionally underrepresented in parliament — especially women, Maori and ethnic minorities. There would be an incentive to place them in winnable positions on the party lists.</p>
<p>This argument has proved correct. Women comprise <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/get-involved/features/new-zealand-women-mps-continuing-to-break-barriers/">40 per cent</a> of the parliament elected in 2017. <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2017/12/apo-nid127646-1170191.pdf">Twenty-two per cent</a> are Maori. And the parliament is <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2017/12/apo-nid127646-1170191.pdf">broadly representative</a> of New Zealand’s ethnic and age demographics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-new-zealands-vote-means-for-maori-and-potentially-first-nations-in-canada-84573">What New Zealand's vote means for Maori -- and potentially First Nations in Canada</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/">Twenty-seven</a> of the parliament’s 120 members are members of the executive. They don’t dominate parliament, which can then serve its proper function of holding the executive to account.</p>
<p>The parliament is large enough for its committees to properly scrutinize legislation. And the number of political parties is sufficient to ensure philosophical diversity on those committees.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3896%2C2659&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3896%2C2659&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299260/original/file-20191029-183142-y95pow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ardern are seen at a meeting at the official residence of the Canadian Ambassador in Paris in May 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the other hand, reducing the number of electorate seats to make space for list members has significantly increased the geographic size of the electorates. The ability of members to stay in close contact with their constituents may therefore be reduced.</p>
<p>List members are not directly accountable to the people. They owe their positions entirely to the parties. Voters cannot directly support or oppose the views of an individual list member at the ballot box. </p>
<p>This is especially important for democratic accountability on conscience votes in parliament — including votes on issues like abortion and euthanasia, when members vote according to conscience rather than according to a party line.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conscience-vote-on-euthanasia-bill-exposes-democratic-weakness-of-new-zealands-voting-system-90838">Conscience vote on euthanasia bill exposes democratic weakness of New Zealand's voting system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Unlike Canada’s newly elected House of Commons, New Zealand’s parliament does reflect the will of the voters. Demographically, its membership looks like New Zealand. It provides stable government and a parliamentary check on executive power. </p>
<p>So do other proportional representation systems. Canada has plenty of choice.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic O'Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Unlike Canada’s newly elected House of Commons, New Zealand’s parliament reflects the will of voters. So do other proportional representation systems. Canada has plenty of choice.Dominic O'Sullivan, Associate Professor of Political Science, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258482019-10-24T23:24:02Z2019-10-24T23:24:02ZWhat the Canadian election results would have looked like with electoral reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298615/original/file-20191024-170499-1jm6as2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=88%2C775%2C3720%2C1836&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes his way to a news conference at in Ottawa on Oct. 23, 2019. What would the election results look like if Canada had proportional representation? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2019 federal election results suggested a majority of Canadians preferred a minority government, but the one they got was different than the one they voted for.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party won what can be described as a “stable minority” with barely a third of the total votes while the NDP and Greens elected far fewer MPs than their share of the vote. As in past elections, our first-past-the-post electoral system distorted the electoral preferences of Canadians.</p>
<p>Canada pays a price for this distortion. Not only is the will of the people not reflected in our Parliament, but certain regions — such as Alberta, where 30 per cent of the population didn’t vote Conservative — will not be represented in government at all. In a proportional representation (PR) electoral system, the Liberals would have won 10 seats in the three Prairie provinces, and the NDP as many as nine.</p>
<p>The distortions in our voting system produce apathy among some voters. No doubt, there are other reasons why people don’t vote, but one is that they don’t feel that their vote will make any difference. In a first-past-the-post system, if you are an NDP voter in a riding where the overall NDP vote is marginal (say, less than 10 per cent), you may feel like voting doesn’t count for much.</p>
<p>The current electoral system also incentivizes “strategic voting,” especially on the political left, in order to prevent a Conservative Party breakthrough. This too is part of our voting system’s distortions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298609/original/file-20191024-170475-mqodez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298609/original/file-20191024-170475-mqodez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298609/original/file-20191024-170475-mqodez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298609/original/file-20191024-170475-mqodez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298609/original/file-20191024-170475-mqodez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298609/original/file-20191024-170475-mqodez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298609/original/file-20191024-170475-mqodez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada’s 2019 national election results.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rebecca Baxter and Matthew Hayes</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The voting results in 2019 using the first-past-the-post system distorted the Liberals’ results over much of the country. If we went only by national voter turnout, results from the election would look very different. </p>
<p>Supposing a five per cent cut-off for parties to be represented in the House of Commons, the seat totals using the total national vote would look like something close to this:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298610/original/file-20191024-170499-bhklsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298610/original/file-20191024-170499-bhklsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298610/original/file-20191024-170499-bhklsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298610/original/file-20191024-170499-bhklsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298610/original/file-20191024-170499-bhklsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298610/original/file-20191024-170499-bhklsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298610/original/file-20191024-170499-bhklsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A fictional scenario of Canada’s election result - with National Proportional Representation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rebecca Baxter and Matthew Hayes</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this scenario, eight remaining seats representing just over two per cent of the population who voted for other parties would have to be apportioned to the main parties, using an agreed-upon formula to make fractional numbers into whole seats. The numbers in the chart above round each party’s seat total to the nearest whole seat, but that leaves several parties with over- and under-votes that are fractional and not representative. </p>
<p>There are several formulas for resolving this, the most widely used is what’s known as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/dHondt-formula">D’Hondt method</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6CU3F3ToIIg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">BBC journalists explain the D'Hondt formula for proportional representation for the UK.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Regional differences</h2>
<p>In Canada, one could reasonably object that a national proportional representation system would distort regional differences. This might dilute strong regional parties, most obviously the Bloc Québécois, but possibly also the Conservatives, whose Western power base would be diluted by weaker support elsewhere.</p>
<p>Taking the election results and breaking them down by region that would each retain the same number of regional seats chosen proportionally (Atlantic Canada 32; Quebec 78; Ontario 121; Prairies 62; BC 42; the North 3), the results would look something like this:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298611/original/file-20191024-170481-1xg3g3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298611/original/file-20191024-170481-1xg3g3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298611/original/file-20191024-170481-1xg3g3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298611/original/file-20191024-170481-1xg3g3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298611/original/file-20191024-170481-1xg3g3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298611/original/file-20191024-170481-1xg3g3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298611/original/file-20191024-170481-1xg3g3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A fictional scenario of Canada’s election result - with Regional Proportional Representation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rebecca Baxter and Matthew Hayes</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That would mean reapportioning about 14 other seats, five of which represent Green votes in Québec and on the Prairies, where the Greens would have failed to make the five per cent cut-off for representation (they would have made a three per cent cut off in both regions). </p>
<p>Lower Conservative numbers in the Prairies are made up through higher representation in the Maritimes and Québec, where the Conservative Party would draw part of its caucus, giving it a much more national base.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-liberal-minority-government-2019-1.5331926">he will govern without a coalition partner</a>, and therefore not have to compromise with any other parties, is precisely what Canadians voted against when they elected a minority Parliament. </p>
<p>With a proportional representation electoral system, Parliament would require a lot more co-operation among major parties to pass legislation and stave off confidence votes. This could also make Parliament more stable and less divisive.</p>
<h2>Electing MPs to reflect our values</h2>
<p>As the outgoing prime minister, Trudeau would still have had the right to try to form a coalition government, but his options would have been more limited. The NDP would have had a much stronger voice, technically able to govern with either the Conservatives or Liberals. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298613/original/file-20191024-170493-cjiyjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298613/original/file-20191024-170493-cjiyjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298613/original/file-20191024-170493-cjiyjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298613/original/file-20191024-170493-cjiyjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298613/original/file-20191024-170493-cjiyjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298613/original/file-20191024-170493-cjiyjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298613/original/file-20191024-170493-cjiyjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and his wife Gurkiran Kaur wave to supporters on stage at NDP election headquarters in Burnaby, B.C. on election night. The NDP would likely have a much stronger voice with proportional representation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A slightly different vote, however, might have produced a Parliament where more than two parties would have had to work together. It would have also limited the overall size of the Bloc Québécois without completely sidelining them or Québec representatives in any governing coalition.</p>
<p>Minority parliaments require the large national parties to co-operate in order to turn electoral success into parliamentary influence — a feature singularly missing from our current first-past-the-post system. Parliamentary leaders best able to be diplomatic and create relationships across party lines would be the true power brokers — not the PMO alone — of the new parliamentary system. </p>
<p>There are other advantages to moving to proportional representation. The use of party lists would make it easier for parties to represent women, ethnic minorities and other under-represented groups. It would also enable them to draw MPs from a deeper talent pool, more representative of a party’s national support. </p>
<p>Rather than distorting our vote, we might be able to elect parliaments that reflects who we are.</p>
<p><em>A version of this article was first posted in the ‘NB Media Co-op.’</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Hayes receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Canada Research Chairs Program. </span></em></p>What would the Canadian election results have looked like with electoral reform?Matthew Hayes, Associate Professor, Sociology, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1163472019-05-02T00:32:25Z2019-05-02T00:32:25ZExplainer: how does preferential voting work in the Senate?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271917/original/file-20190501-142962-1uylkic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-australia-july-2-2016-ballot-446230945?src=DvOV4nLdTGF1WizqSifEzw-1-4">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version on an <a href="https://theconversation.com/senate-voting-changes-pass-so-how-do-we-elect-the-upper-house-now-55641">article</a> that was published in 2016 when the new Senate voting rules were first introduced.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The voting system for the Australian Senate combines both preferential voting and proportional representation counting. </p>
<p>This system produces an upper house comprised of eight electorates (six states and two territories), each represented by multiple senators. As a group, these senators much more fairly represent the diversity of opinions in their electorates than the system in the lower house, where each of 151 electorates is represented by only a single member. </p>
<p>The election for the Senate on May 18 will be the world’s largest-ever election using this system, known technically as “<a href="http://www.prsa.org.au/municip1.htm#definition">proportional representation using the single transferable vote</a>”. We will elect six senators in each of the states, and two senators in each territory.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-major-parties-indigenous-health-election-commitments-stack-up-115714">How the major parties’ Indigenous health election commitments stack up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The key features of Senate voting</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>you have one vote</p></li>
<li><p>you can express preferences for candidates in the order you prefer them, writing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and so on</p></li>
<li><p>if the candidate for whom you vote “1” is elected with more first preference votes than the <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/voting/counting/senate_count.htm">quota</a> needed for election, the surplus votes received are transferred to the next chosen candidate at a value that ensures as much as possible of your voting power of one vote counts towards electing a senator</p></li>
<li><p>a quota is the number of votes a candidate requires to be elected. In each of the states, in this half Senate election, the quota is 1/7 of all the formal votes plus 1 </p></li>
<li><p>if the candidate for whom you vote “1” fails to be elected, the full value of your vote passes to the candidate to whom you gave your “2”. And if that candidate fails to be elected, to your “3” and so on</p></li>
<li><p>the number of candidates elected for each party is, as closely as possible, directly proportional to the support that party’s candidates receive after preferences</p></li>
<li><p>a big majority of voters will be represented by either a senator they voted “1” for, or a senator they gave an early preference to.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-matter-of-mis-trust-why-this-election-is-posing-problems-for-the-media-116142">A matter of (mis)trust: why this election is posing problems for the media</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So, what do Australians need to know when they go to vote to choose their senators in this year’s federal election?</p>
<p>The ballot paper requires you to choose from one of two ways of marking it. Voting above-the-line means that you let your vote support parties’ candidates in the order on the ballot paper, whereas voting below-the-line means that you decide the order in which you support candidates. </p>
<p>The order is important because the chance of a candidate being elected decreases the later his or her name appears in that order of priority.</p>
<h2>Voting above-the-line</h2>
<p>The instructions on the ballot papers will tell you that a valid above-the-line ballot will show at least six party boxes, numbered 1 to 6, for at least six party groupings. However, your vote will have potentially more effect if you number more boxes. </p>
<p>In the example below, if you put a “1” in the Liberal box, the first Liberal to gain from your vote will be Malcolm Turnbull, then secondly Alexander Downer, then Tony Abbott, and so on. If you are a Liberal voter that wants to put Tony Abbott first, you can do this, but you have to vote below-the-line (read on for how to do that).</p>
<p>The example we show here is a formal (valid) vote that places the major parties last. This voter supported first the “Climate Sceptics”, but then ranked other minor parties and then the larger parties in the order: Liberal, Labor, Green.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271929/original/file-20190501-39945-18650rn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click to zoom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It could happen that when this voter’s preferences are finally transferred, all the candidates for the first six parties chosen had been elected or excluded. Their vote is then used to help decide the final contest, between Labor and the Greens – in this case favouring Labor. But if the voter had not numbered all the boxes, their vote would have become exhausted: in other words, not further counted towards the election of a candidate.</p>
<p>An above-the-line “<a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/faqs/Voting_Australia.htm#vote-saving">vote savings provision</a>” means that even if you mark only one box, your ballot will still be counted. But (for example) if you had marked “1” in the square for Climate Sceptics – and only that square – and the Climate Sceptics candidates had failed to get enough votes to remain in the count, your ballot would have become exhausted, meaning your vote did not count towards electing a senator.</p>
<p>That is why it is best to number as many squares as possible.</p>
<h2>Voting below-the-line</h2>
<p>Below-the-line voters rank individual candidates in the order such voters prefer. You will be instructed to number at least 12 boxes below-the-line.</p>
<p>Suppose you are a Liberal voter, but you don’t like the order of the Liberal candidates on the ballot paper. You may number the boxes of the six Liberal candidates in any order – provided the numbers are sequential and each numeral is different.</p>
<p>If you then want to preference the Shooters and Fishers candidates (numbering 7 to 12), then Palmer United candidates (numbering 13 to 18), but dislike the remaining parties, you may leave their candidates’ squares blank. Your ballot is still formal and will be counted – as in the mock voting paper below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271930/original/file-20190501-39938-15lx6xd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click to zoom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Suppose you want to support particular candidates from different parties – and want to rank Penny Wong, Sarah Hanson-Young and Jacqui Lambie ahead of all the other candidates. You may certainly do that – again provided your ballot includes 1 to 12 and those preferences are sequential.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271932/original/file-20190501-39956-d9wj2l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click to zoom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>You might want to rank everyone except the main parties first. Let’s say that you also prefer the Hemp Party and Socialist Alternative first, but then want to vote for the Shooters and Fishers. If you then think Labor is the least bad of the main parties, the best way to use your ballot is to preference all of the small parties’ candidates and then Labor’s. That way, even if all the smaller parties’ candidates are excluded from the count, your next choice gains the value of your vote.</p>
<p>Note that you can rank the candidates of a particular party in any order. In the example below, the voter prefers Donald Trump to the other Shooters and Fishers candidates.</p>
<p>The more genuine preferences you express, the more likely a candidate you favour will be elected rather than one you disfavour.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271933/original/file-20190501-39953-1pfvcd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click to zoom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/faqs/Voting_Australia.htm#vote-saving">rules allow</a> a vote to be counted provided that the first six consecutive numbers are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. If you omit or repeat a number, the ballot will still be counted. So a ballot that has the preferences 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13 would be formal – but only preferences one to nine would count.</p>
<p>Your vote is most effective when you express as many preferences as you can or want to – either below or above the line.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Morey is the Honorary National Secretary of the Proportional Representation Society of Australia (<a href="http://www.prsa.org.au">http://www.prsa.org.au</a>)</span></em></p>Senate voting is pretty complicated. Here’s how preferential voting and proportional representation work – and how to make sure your vote is counted on election day.Stephen Morey, Senior Lecturer, Department of Languages and Linguistics, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1154822019-04-23T08:33:26Z2019-04-23T08:33:26ZElectoral systems need urgent reform. South Africa is no exception<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269521/original/file-20190416-147499-xa2jpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africans go to the polls on 8 May, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The long running political soap opera unfolding in Westminster over a decision taken two years ago in a referendum to leave the European Union has been the top running news story for <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-is-not-just-theresa-mays-disaster-britains-whole-political-class-has-failed-a-nation-114463">months on end</a>. The UK finds itself at an impasse, with members of parliament unable to decide how to proceed. </p>
<p>The crisis has raised fundamental questions about the country’s democracy. The biggest is whether the two-party system is now dead on its feet.</p>
<p>This question is pertinent in the UK, as well for other countries, including South Africa where voters will go to the polls on <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/About-Us/IEC-Events/2019-National-and-Provincial-Elections/">8 May</a>. </p>
<p>South Africans may enjoy seeing the imperial lion becoming increasingly decrepit. Yet it has few reasons for feeling smug. Like the UK, questions continue to be asked about whether South Africa’s particular <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Election-types/">proportional representation</a> system is fit for purpose. </p>
<p>Under the system – designed to ensure inclusivity in the run up to the first democratic elections in 1994 – voters vote for party lists <a href="https://hsf.org.za/publications/hsf-briefs/the-south-african-electoral-system">selected by the parties </a>. As a result, members of parliament are wholly accountable to their parties, minimally accountable to the voters. <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/news/latest-news/in-their-own-words/2018/2018-10/sas-electoral-system-is-weak-on-accountability.html">Lack of accountability</a> results in the arrogance of power for which the African National Congress has become increasingly notorious. </p>
<p>South Africa should be alive to the reality that the failure of electoral systems to produce parliaments that adequately represent opinions on the ground can have disturbing consequences. One is the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt20krxdr.6?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">rise in right-wing populism</a> being seen in a number of countries across the world.</p>
<h2>Collapse of UK’s two parties</h2>
<p>British MPs have deserted both the Labour and Conservative parties to form the centrist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/14/stephen-dorrell-defection-change-uk-tory-poll-five-year-low">Change UK party</a>. This has increased the number of small parties which now congregate on the opposition benches, reinforcing the widespread view that the traditional support bases of the two major parties is splintering.</p>
<p>If, as is widely thought, an early election is called, there is no guarantee that it will not result in yet another hung parliament, in which no single party will secure a majority. Minority or coalition government may have arrived as a recurrent feature in a political system wherein politicians are more accustomed to adversarial politics.</p>
<p>The current crisis in British politics is in significant part the result of the failure of the first-past-the-post electoral system to reflect changes in British society. The electoral system systematically over-represents winning parties and under-represents minority parties. </p>
<p>Historically, the argument in favour of a first-past-the-post electoral system was that it produced governments with workable majorities in parliament, even though governing parties are regularly elected by considerably less than a majority of the voting electorate. </p>
<p>Today, the system in Britain is no longer guaranteed to result in governing parties having a working majority of MPs. Conservative leader David Cameron had to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/12/david-cameron-nick-clegg-coalition">forge a coalition</a> with the Liberal Democrats in order to form a majority government after the election of 2010. </p>
<h2>The quandry of coalitions</h2>
<p>South Africa’s national list proportional representation system was designed (wisely) to maximise representivity. </p>
<p>During the process of negotiation which preceded the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa">transition to democracy</a>, it was considered necessary to ensure that minority opinions should find voice in parliament, rather than being excluded. This, regardless whether they expressed interests of race, ethnicity, religion, region or ideology.</p>
<p>The country has avoided the complications of a national coalition government so far because the African National Congress (ANC) has consistently been elected with a majority of MPs. The results since 1994 have shown the party never getting <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/elections/results/2014-national-and-provincial-elections--national-results/">less than 60% of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>It’s probable that the ANC will secure another <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2018-11-07-undecided-voters-will-be-key-as-survey-shows-party-loyalties-are-waning/">majority in parliament</a> in the forthcoming election poll. </p>
<p>Yet if it does, it’s likely to have been elected by a <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/About-Us/News/Voters--Roll-Certified-for-National-and-Provincial-Elections-2019/">smaller proportion</a> of eligible voters than it was in <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/elections/results/2014-national-and-provincial-elections--national-results/">2014</a>. Then it was elected by <a href="https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief61_Aug14.pdf">just 35%</a> of the potential electorate. Large numbers of potential voters fail to register in the country.</p>
<p>Furthermore, each election brings predictions – which one day will be realised – that the ANC will fail to win an election at national level and will be forced to <a href="http://www.nb.co.za/Books/20247">govern in coalition</a> with a smaller party. Even in this year’s election, it is more than a little possible that the ANC might have to form coalitions if it wants to hang onto power in certain provinces. The most likely is the country’s economic hub, Gauteng. The ANC has already had to form coalitions for three big metropoles after local government elections in 2016 – Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane and Johannesburg.</p>
<p>Many would welcome the ANC being forced into coalition. This is because the monopoly of power the party’s enjoyed since 1994 has resulted in a lack of accountability.</p>
<p>This lack of accountability is hard-baked into the way the country’s electoral system is set up. </p>
<h2>The disproportionate power of parties</h2>
<p>Not surprisingly, there are constant calls for the electoral system to be <a href="https://www.thesouthafrican.com/mosiuoa-lekota-south-africa-private-members-bill/">reformed</a>. The most widely touted solution, favoured even from within some quarters of the ANC, is for members of parliament to be elected from <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-electoral-reform-but-presidents-powers-need-watching-88820">multi-member constituencies</a>. This was recommended in 2002 by a commission set up to <a href="http://pmg-assets.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/docs/Van-Zyl-Slabbert-Commission-on-Electoral-Reform-Report-2003.pdf">review the country’s electoral system</a>. But the commission’s recommendations were <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2017/08/10/van-zyl-slabbert-sa-parliament">turned down by the ANC</a>.</p>
<p>Notionally, the proposed change would have required MPs to look downwards to their constituents as well as upwards to their party bosses.</p>
<h2>Legitimacy</h2>
<p>South Africa is, once again, experiencing, a massively high level of <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/look-service-delivery-protests-snowball-as-politicians-shift-blame-21026190">social protest</a>. This shows that popular support for the country’s political system is steadily eroding. </p>
<p>Change in the electoral systems is needed. A failure to deal with the inadequacies of electoral systems – in South Africa as well as more broadly – will only perpetuate and exaggerate social crises.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall has received funding from the National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>The current crisis in British politics is significant for countries like South Africa where a change in electoral systems is needed.Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1100172019-02-04T21:21:31Z2019-02-04T21:21:31ZThe meme-ification of politics: Politicians & their ‘lit’ memes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255923/original/file-20190128-108364-hefbt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1347%2C4428%2C2649&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">B.C. Premier John Horgan created a meme when he said: 'If you were woke, you'd know that pro rep is lit.'</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In November, during a televised debate about electoral reform, British Columbia Premier John Horgan told the audience, “If you were woke, you’d know that pro rep is lit.” </p>
<p>By “pro rep,” he meant “proportional representation,” an alternative to the current first-past-the-post voting system. By “woke,” he meant socially conscious. By “lit,” he meant, according to the <a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lit">Urban Dictionary</a>, “Something that is f—ing amazing in any sense.” The B.C. NDP soon tweeted his remark, and a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/pro-rep-is-lit-1.4898546">meme was born</a>.</p>
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<p>This is a federal election year, so Canadians should be ready for a meme-filled 2019. Political memes are <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/world-made-meme">increasingly prominent</a> in political discourse, and politicians will be using this latest online strategy to attract, infuriate, persuade or bemuse voters. </p>
<p>It’s therefore worthwhile understanding how memes can shape the tone and perceptions of campaigns or policies. And it’s also useful to look at politicians’ recent attempts to use memes for good and ill.</p>
<h2>What is a political meme?</h2>
<p>A political meme is a purposefully designed visual framing of a position. Memes are a <a href="https://www.academia.edu/31297266/Digital_Dispatches_from_the_2016_US_Election_Popular_Culture_Intertextuality_and_Media_Power">new genre</a> of political communication, and they generally have at least one of two characteristics — they are inside jokes and they trigger an emotional reaction. </p>
<p>Memes work politically if they are widely — or virally — shared, if they help cultivate a sense of belonging to an “in-group” and if they make a compelling normative statement about a public figure or political issue. </p>
<p>Memes can spread rapidly online and into popular culture due to their shareability — they are easily created, consumed, altered and <a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/zm884j/where-do-memes-come-from-researchers-studied-reddit-4chan">disseminated</a>. They can quickly communicate the creator’s stance on the subject. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2013.04.016">stronger the emotional response</a> provoked by a post, the greater the intent to spread it.</p>
<p>Though memes may spread widely, they usually cater to a specific audience who inhabit a <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/memes-digital-culture">“shared sphere of cultural knowledge.”</a> That audience tends to have self-referential language, cultivating an in-group that can decipher the memes and get the “in joke” while those who aren’t in on the joke cannot. (For an excellent display of this, listen to one of the <a href="https://www.gimletmedia.com/reply-all/126-alex-jones-dramageddon">“Yes Yes No”</a> segments on the <a href="https://www.gimletmedia.com/reply-all">Reply All</a> podcast, in which the hosts explain complex, multi-layered memes to a confused non-digital native.) </p>
<p>A person who wants to successfully create or repurpose a meme therefore needs to have sufficient understanding of that shared sphere and its digital norms.</p>
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<p>By drawing on shared meanings, meme creators can compress complex ideas into simple visual packages. For instance, feminist memes both <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1464700115604136?casa_token=pqUyL9ZFfBIAAAAA:ZKohUgQwMEgngMqTd5xsF9sxNWwe8nXOWMHaYiTBMPBE09FoBgOQxaBWQGLJK1khY8oJEbNlCSBPWg">critiqued and lampooned</a> the 2012 claim by presidential candidate Mitt Romney that he had “binders full of women” that he could bring into his administration.</p>
<h2>‘I have a drone’</h2>
<p>Memes about former president Barack Obama’s administration ranged from silly emotions to ones <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/ejas/12158">that challenged</a> the dominant political discourse, such as the critique of his targeted drone program through the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1386/iscc.7.2.155_1">“I have a drone”</a> meme. </p>
<p>Similarly, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been the focus of many positive memes, particularly when he is <a href="https://www.bustle.com/p/13-trudeau-trump-memes-tweets-that-hilariously-describe-their-awkward-meeting-37852">compared to U.S. President Donald Trump</a>, but also negative memes, including those referencing Canada’s <a href="https://me.me/i/using-complex-calculations-trudeau-explains-how-its-possible-to-be-22302719">arms deal with Saudi Arabia</a>.</p>
<h2>The dark side of memes</h2>
<p>While memes can communicate nuanced ideas, generate a sense of cultural belonging and evoke strong emotions, they also have serious downsides as forms of political discourse. Political memes can offer deeper reflections on social issues, with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10510974.2015.1087414">persuasive effect</a> that risks creating “a self-convincing audience” that is motivated to engage with the messaging. </p>
<p>There is <a href="https://datasociety.net/research/media-manipulation/">serious concern</a> that memes are replacing the nuanced debate necessary in a healthy democracy. </p>
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<p>It is <a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/z4k549/trolling-scholars-debunk-the-idea-that-the-alt-rights-trolls-have-magic-powers">still debated</a> whether racist, “alt-right” memes, many <a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/zm884j/where-do-memes-come-from-researchers-studied-reddit-4chan">originating</a> on Reddit and 4Chan <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/NealRauhauser/the-fringe-insurgency-connectivity-convergence-and-mainstreaming-of-the-extreme-right">with an increasingly transnational reach</a>, were a <a href="https://datasociety.net/pubs/oh/DataAndSociety_MediaManipulationAndDisinformationOnline.pdf">deciding factor</a> in Trump’s 2016 election win.</p>
<p>Authoritarian regimes are also reported to have <a href="http://demokratizatsiya.pub/archives/22_1_B158221228502786.pdf">co-opted online political humorous content, especially memes,</a> both domestically <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90283167/russia-instagram-war-facebook-memes">and abroad</a> to advance their interests.</p>
<p>Furthermore, seemingly neutral memes can be <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611332/this-is-where-internet-memes-come-from/">“weaponized”</a>. An infamous example is <a href="https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/pepe-the-frog">Pepe the Frog</a>, which evolved from a sad frog cartoon into a symbol for the politically charged, racist and anti-Semitic messages of the so-called alt-right, a U.S.-based white nationalist movement.</p>
<p>Another means of weaponization is to link politically charged issues like immigration or climate change to unrelated but highly provocative issues like the spread of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2016.1260631">Zika virus</a>.</p>
<p>It can be difficult to counter these negative effects of memes. One problem is that they can rarely be fact-checked. Rather than making textual claims, they rely on a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10510974.2015.1087414">visual grammar</a>. After all, it would be silly to fact-check an electoral system equated to Oprah’s gift giveaways.</p>
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<p>Because memes are ambiguous and require interpretation of visual grammar, it is hard to hold their creators to account. For instance, when people are called out for creating or spreading memes that symbolise white nationalism, they <a href="https://datasociety.net/pubs/oh/DataAndSociety_MediaManipulationAndDisinformationOnline.pdf">can deny the given meaning, or state that it is a joke</a>.</p>
<h2>Should politicians meme?</h2>
<p>Politicians are therefore playing with fire when they try to get in on the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/09/technology/political-memes-go-mainstream.html">mainstreaming</a> of memes. They risk being perceived as making lame attempts to cater to a community to which they do not belong. Hillary Clinton’s attempt to engage young voters <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2015/08/12/news/hillary-clinton-tweet-emoji-reaction/index.html">backfired</a> when she tweeted out “How does your student loan debt make you feel? Tell us in 3 emojis or less.” It was criticized as condescending and a distraction from her actual policy proposal to make college more affordable. </p>
<p>Politicians can face ridicule and accusations of “inauthenticity” when they engage in this new form of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/politicians-are-live-streaming-videos-instagram/579490/">political performance</a>. </p>
<p>When politicians use memes, they must also surrender control over how they will be repurposed and interpreted over time.</p>
<p>Premier Horgan did not say “pro rep is lit” because it was a convincing argument, but because he knew it would get the internet’s attention. </p>
<p>Politicians need to connect with young voters, and use memes to signal to this particular demographic. Pro Rep advocates in B.C. created a <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/photo-contest/">meme contest</a> because they recognized <a href="https://dogwoodbc.ca/news/pro-rep-win-young-people-vote/">connecting with young voters is a top priority</a> as youth are more likely to be in favour of proportional representation.</p>
<p>More research is needed to understand the effect that political memes have on the quality of political debate. In the meantime, politicians should be cautious — or risk becoming this guy:</p>
<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/1Qdp4trljSkY8" width="100%" height="271" frameborder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/30-rock-sme-how-do-you-1Qdp4trljSkY8">A 55-year-old Steve Buscemi goes to high school and tries to fit in on an episode of ‘30 Rock.’ Via Giphy</a></p>
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<p><em>This article was co-authored with Grace Chiang, political science major at UBC</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Tenove receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>Politicians have been using memes to appear cool, plugged in, even ‘lit.’ Here’s why that’s not necessarily a smart idea.Chris Tenove, Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Political Science, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.