tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/underemployment-4349/articlesUnderemployment – The Conversation2024-01-22T22:32:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205372024-01-22T22:32:59Z2024-01-22T22:32:59ZYoung Black men in Canada face racism, ageism and classism when looking for work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569965/original/file-20240117-19-skld11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5372%2C3581&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Black people in Canada continue experiencing oppression and dehumanization because of how their skin colour is viewed and represented.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/young-black-men-in-canada-face-racism-ageism-and-classism-when-looking-for-work" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Youth employment in Canada continues to be a concern. Young people between the ages of 15 and 30 <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/42-28-0001/2021001/article/00002-eng.htm">are less likely to find and sustain employment compared to an older population of Canadians</a>.</p>
<p>According to Statistics Canada, around 11 per cent of youth aged 15-24 are unemployed. Among young Black Canadians that number is around <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240105/dq240105a-eng.htm">17.5 per cent</a>.</p>
<p>Black people in Canada continue experiencing oppression and dehumanization <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cars.12400">because of how their skin colour is viewed and represented</a>.</p>
<p>Impoverished Black male youth in particular encounter racism, ageism, classism and gender biases when looking for work. These are stereotypes which encourage many Canadian employers to view them as not good for business and unemployable.</p>
<h2>Intersecting oppressions</h2>
<p>As a sociocultural anthropologist who is dedicated to uncovering the nuances in Black youth un(der)employment, I have found that impoverished Black youths’ inability to find employment is due to <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/intersectionality-as-critical-social-theory">intersectional oppressions</a> such as ageism and classism, which is also tied to their Blackness. </p>
<p>The challenges they face vary among different Canadian cities. In my <a href="https://repository.library.carleton.ca/concern/etds/xg94hq41j">doctoral study</a> about impoverished Black male youth in Montréal, Ottawa and Toronto, I found these youth are denied employment opportunities for multifaceted reasons. These include discrimination based on a person’s address, age, classism and gender biases — particularly about the negative stereotypical ideas that surround Black manhood. </p>
<p>The sociological study focused on Black male youth between the ages of 15 to 29 who live in low income areas between Montréal, Toronto and Ottawa. The qualitative study gathered data from 21 young Black men through semi-structured interviews and focus groups. </p>
<p>Political philosopher <a href="https://groveatlantic.com/book/toward-the-african-revolution/">Frantz Fanon</a> warned us of the dangers of recognizing Black people’s experiences as one. Black people have differences that contribute to their humanness, which the colonizer has denied.</p>
<p>Similarly, when we presume all youth have the same experiences, we fail to take diversity seriously and may be falsely interpreting the lived experiences of many youth. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young Black man working on a laptop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569950/original/file-20240117-21-xa58hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Young Black men face overlapping forms of discrimination based on racist and classist views of Black masculinity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>There was never one reason, such as anti-Black racism, which was the cause of employment barriers among these young people. The reality is these youth experience overlapping discrimination that are tied to anti-Black racism, such as classism, which varied based on different encounters with various employers.</p>
<p>My study found that impoverished Black male youth are tied to a socially manufactured hierarchical system that considers race, gender, sexuality, ability, age, social class and education. Unfortunately, employers excluded them because of the many intersections that make up their identities.</p>
<p>Although the Canadian government recognizes Black youth face barriers to employment, <a href="https://www.miragenews.com/minister-marci-ien-supports-black-youth-955894/">few politicians recognize that more needs to be done to create inclusivity in the workplace</a>. The lived experiences of impoverished Black male youth and their ability to access employment are not the same nationwide. </p>
<h2>Secularism laws impact opportunities</h2>
<p>My study also found that many Black male youth in Montréal are also at the mercy of Québec’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-supposed-benefits-of-quebec-secularism-bill-dont-outweigh-the-costs-114907">secularism law</a>. Black male youth in the city must deal with classism and constantly being tied to the unworthy idea that they do not serve many employees’ needs. This is based on the stereotypical ideas of what their Black masculinity represents. </p>
<p>Some of these young people adorn religious clothing, which has complicated their job-seeking strategies. Many young Black men living in the province <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/february-2023/elghawaby-quebec-double-standard/">face discrimination based on their religious values</a> and their clothing or attire was a reason they were overlooked for employment.</p>
<p>These secularism laws are an added issue for impoverished Black male youth seeking employment, as many of them do not feel a sense of belonging, and are constantly faced with intersecting social oppressions where they are overlooked for employment opportunities. </p>
<p>We must realize that some laws and policies may be suitable for some Canadians. But in an effort to create legislation, there is a disregard for the social concerns of those who have been othered. Creating laws without considering them adds to a sense that they do not belong in this country.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Black teenage boy carrying a backpack poses for a photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570411/original/file-20240119-17-moluuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Black men and boys must continuously confront racist narratives that impact their future prospects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>Thinking through Black masculinity</h2>
<p>For years, Black Canadian scholars such as <a href="https://edu.yorku.ca/edu-profiles/index.php?mid=2196">Carl James</a>, <a href="https://brocku.ca/social-sciences/sociology/people/tamari-kitossa/">Tamari Kitossa</a> and myself have discussed Black masculinities in Canada and how Black men are seen as dangerous, untrustworthy men undeserving of a sense of belonging in the white settler nation-state. </p>
<p><a href="https://ualbertapress.ca/9781772125436/appealing-because-he-is-appalling/">These historical narratives continue to inform our present day society</a>, which has complicated how impoverished young Black men seek and obtain employment. Failing to recognize these tensions among young Black men is distancing ourselves from the lived experiences rooted in history, which are playing out in our contemporary moments.</p>
<p>The young Black men I spoke to courageously shared what it means to seek employment while having to negotiate your right to be treated fairly. When these young men do eventually obtain employment, they are often trapped in low-paying, menial labour positions reflective of unfair stereotypes about Black masculinity.</p>
<p>This type of work degrades their humanity and selfhood. The dehumanization faced by these youth when they attempt to seek employment demonstrates how they are othered not solely by their race.</p>
<p>For there to be equitable hiring practices, governments and employers must understand anti-Black racism in light of the intertwined forms of discrimination that often accompany it. </p>
<p>Homogenizing the lived experiences of Black youth can cause harm and promote misconceptions about their lived experiences. I urge people to refrain from thinking about racialized people based on their race alone. Instead, we should intentionally focus on the individuality of people. We must practice cultural competency which invites us to appreciate people and their different lived experiences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Warren Clarke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Young Black men are being denied employment for multifaceted reasons, and when they do find work, are often trapped in low-paying jobs.Warren Clarke, Assistant Professor, Anthropology, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1812422022-04-14T07:59:08Z2022-04-14T07:59:08ZTechnically unemployment now begins with a ‘3’. How to keep it there?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458112/original/file-20220414-14-nti9wg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=213%2C112%2C3497%2C1433&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The official employment figures say the unemployment rate for March was <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">4.0%</a>, exactly the same as a month earlier. </p>
<p>But if you’re prepared to download the spreadsheet and work it out, you’ll find that expressed to two decimal places the rate actually fell, from 4.04% to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release#data-downloads">3.95%</a>. </p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics confirms this by saying on its website that the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points between February and March while also (apparently inconsistentlly) saying it was 4.0% in both months.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a></span>
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<p>This result, clearly below 4%, is the lowest rate of unemployment Australia has seen since the monthly series of labour force statistics began in February 1978, and the lowest since the November quarter of 1974, almost 50 years ago, when the figures were quarterly.</p>
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<p>After the decade up to March 2020 in which the rate hardly moved above 6% or below 5%, the new rate of 3.95% is an enormous step in the right direction.</p>
<p>But we need to worry about more than unemployment. Workers can be underemployed (getting less hours than they would like) and people who would like to work but think they won’t get work, may stop searching and not get recorded as unemployed.</p>
<p>There’s good news on both counts.</p>
<h2>Less underemployment, fewer hidden unemployed</h2>
<p>The proportion of workers underemployed has fallen from 9.3% prior to COVID in March 2020 to 6.6%. And rather than people withdrawing from the labour force and not looking for work, the rate at which people are either working or looking is up half a percentage point on before COVID.</p>
<p>As well, in an instance of the adage that a rising tide lifts all boats, young Australians who in the 2010s lost out as the economy slowed, now seem to be benefiting most from the pick-up. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-the-election-gaffes-australias-unemployment-rate-is-good-news-and-set-to-get-even-better-by-polling-day-181141">Forget the election gaffes: Australia's unemployment rate is good news – and set to get even better by polling day</a>
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<p>The proportion of young Australians who are employed is an extraordinary 4.6 percentage points higher than in March 2020. </p>
<p>This compares with an improvement of 1.9 percentage points for Australians aged 25 to 64 years, and 0.4 percentage point for Australians aged 65 years and over.</p>
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<p>A rate of unemployment below 4% is certainly a positive. It means more of the nation’s productive resources are being used. It has improved the living standards of the 170,000 people employed today who would have not been, had unemployment remained where it was before COVID. </p>
<p>But those benefits will only stay in place as long as unemployment remains low. Our objective ought to be to keep it as low as possible for as long as possible. </p>
<h2>How can we keep unemployment below 4%?</h2>
<p>Unemployment fell below 4% because more of the population found work.</p>
<p>The economic stimulus the government provided to respond to COVID was built for a worst case that didn’t materialise – people generally kept their jobs. As a result it added to employment growth, and established that it was easier to get unemployment down than had been generally realised.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-cut-unemployment-faster-than-predicted-why-stop-now-177124">Australia cut unemployment faster than predicted – why stop now?</a>
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<p>This suggests that keeping unemployment below 4% will depend on being committed to that goal. </p>
<p>Much of the COVID stimulus has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/wednesdays-gdp-numbers-are-impressive-but-they-are-for-the-december-quarter-when-we-were-bouncing-back-from-delta-177821">saved</a> and has yet to make its way into spending. This, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2022-frydenberg-has-spent-big-but-on-the-whole-responsibly-180122">new spending measures</a> in the 2022 budget, are likely to maintain the impetus needed to keep unemployment low for the months ahead.</p>
<p>Beyond that, what happens to unemployment will depend on the next government’s decisions. </p>
<h2>That 1.3 million extra jobs pledge</h2>
<p>All this must mean the Coalition’s pledge to create <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/12/13-million-new-jobs-pledged">1.3 million</a> extra jobs in the next five years is what’s needed. Well, maybe. </p>
<p>Certainly, employment has to grow for the rate of unemployment to stay low. But the absolute number of jobs only has relevance for the rate of unemployment when we also know what is happening to the number of people who want to work. </p>
<p>Depending on whether the keenness of Australians to get jobs (<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/unemployment-its-measurement-and-types.html">participation</a>) increases at a faster or slower rate than employment, 1.3 million extra jobs could either cut the rate of unemployment or be insufficient to stop it climbing.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-record-vacancies-australians-shouldnt-expect-big-pay-rises-soon-180416">Despite record vacancies, Australians shouldn't expect big pay rises soon</a>
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<p>Suppose 1.3 million jobs are created in the next five years as the Coalition has <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/12/13-million-new-jobs-pledged">pledged</a>, and all of them increase employment. And suppose also that the labour force participation rate grows at the same pace as for the past five years and the working age population at the rate projected by the Bureau of Statistics. </p>
<p>Then Australia’s rate of unemployment in five years time will be about 4.4%, which is higher rather than lower than it is today.</p>
<p>Ultimately what we care about is the <em>proportion</em> of the population that is in work, rather than the number of jobs created, which can be related to population.</p>
<p>A more meaningful pledge would be to keep unemployment at the lowest possible rate below 4% without causing excessive wage inflation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Even the government’s pledge of 1.3 million extra jobs might not be enough to keep unemployment below 4%. The pledge ought to be the unemployment rate itself.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1628622021-06-17T04:09:41Z2021-06-17T04:09:41ZAustralia’s 2.5% minimum wage rise: there’s something in it for you, and the economy<p>Australia has a serious wage problem. Over the past decade wages for all but the top 20% of income earners have flat-lined. </p>
<p>This is part of the longer-term problem concerning productivity and wages identified by groups like the OECD – namely, workers have not shared in productivity gains, with “labour market flexibility” experiments mostly to blame.</p>
<p>So the decision of the Fair Work Commission – the guardian of what’s left of Australia’s historical approach to ensuring decent pay – to increase the minimum wage by 2.5% is significant.</p>
<p>The commission reviews the <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/awards-and-agreements/minimum-wages-conditions/annual-wage-reviews">minimum wage annually</a>. Last year it granted a 1.7% increase – the lowest in 12 years. This year’s 2.5% is less than the 3.5% wanted by unions, but more than the 1.1% sought by employer groups.</p>
<p>The increase directly affects only about a fifth of Australian employees. It will, however, have indirect benefit for workers earning more, and aid economic renewal.</p>
<h2>Higher wages are good for employment</h2>
<p>The 2.5% increase is more than what Treasury and the Reserve Bank forecast for average wages over the coming year, but also something these conservative institutions would welcome. </p>
<p>Sluggish wage growth does not just result in greater wage inequality. It effectively retards demand, a key determinant of employment. </p>
<p>Unemployment and underemployment have affected about one Australian worker in eight (12-13%) for more a decade. Only expansive monetary, fiscal and wages policy offer any hope of boosting employment.</p>
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<p><strong>Unemployment and underemployment in Australia</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401832/original/file-20210520-23-um1zu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Per cent, seasonally adjusted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release#key-statistics">ABS Labour Force</a></span>
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<p>Most immediately, the decision will benefit up to 200,000 workers paid the national minimum wage rate (which will increase to $20.33 an hour) and about 2.2 million employees that rely on awards whose conditions reflect the minimum conditions (that is, they aren’t covered by an enterprise agreement or other contract that guarantees them more). </p>
<p>The commission has ruled the increases won’t apply to most retail workers before September, and for those in aviation, tourism, fitness and a few retail sectors before November. </p>
<p>With these exceptions, the flow-on will be immediate for workers employed by reputable employers subject to union scrutiny. It may be slower in more informal enterprises where award compliance is more variable. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/resistance-to-raising-the-minimum-wage-reflects-obsolete-thinking-158622">Resistance to raising the minimum wage reflects obsolete thinking</a>
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<h2>Indirect impacts</h2>
<p>There will be flow-on affects to other workers, though less than in the past.</p>
<p>Up to the early 1990s, movements in one part of the award system rippled through to other job classifications in a very direct way. This has not been the case since workers – especially those on middle and upper incomes – have been required to bargain at enterprise level for wages. </p>
<p>Such “bargaining”, however, has been supressed for more than a decade, due to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>chronic and significant unemployment and underemployment</p></li>
<li><p>the crippling of union bargaining capacity through restraints on collective industrial action entrenched in the Fair Work Act</p></li>
<li><p>the imposition of legislated caps on wage increases for public-sector workers since the early 2010s, which have also helped suppress private-sector wages. </p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Quarterly change in the Australian Bureau of Statistics' wage price index, seasonally adjusted." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394424/original/file-20210412-13-vqbrie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>That said, having a publicly defined wages norm of 2.5% is helpful to all workers. It provides a benchmark for what is reasonable to claim in enterprise bargaining or negotiating an individual contract. </p>
<h2>A hint of prices and wages accord</h2>
<p>The Fair Work Commission tacitly noted it could have granted more. </p>
<p>Its decision, it said, was influenced by legislated changes to income tax that have benefited low and middle income earners. It also acknowledged the importance of the Superannuation Guarantee Levy increasing by 0.5% from July. </p>
<p>In weighing these factors there are elements of a tacit incomes policy – something Australia hasn’t had since the Hawke-Keating era of the 1980s and early 1990s.</p>
<p>During that period the federal government made agreements (known as prices and incomes accords) with the trade union movement to explicitly coordinate “industrial wages” (that is, actually wages) and the “social wage” (that is, provisions such as Medicare and superannuation that effectively increased living standards). In exchange for increases in the social wage, unions curbed their demands for industrial wage rise, which helped the government tackle inflation.</p>
<p>There are echoes of those ideas in this decision. Indeed Fair Work Commission president Ian Ross, who was in charge of the wage review, was a key official at the Australian Council of Trade Unions in the last years of the accords.</p>
<h2>Getting the balance right</h2>
<p>Institutions like the Fair Work Commission and its annual wages review are rare globally. It is the legacy of Australia’s pioneering system of regulated wages and employment conditions that began in 1904 with the Commonwealth Court of Conciliation and Arbitration. The court’s first landmark decision in 1907 (known as the Harvester decision) was to define and set a “living wage”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-national-living-wage-is-on-the-table-now-lets-talk-about-a-global-living-wage-112300">A national living wage is on the table. Now let's talk about a global living wage</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Over the decades this arbitration system has adjusted wages in light of changes to economic and social conditions. More often than not it has got the balance right – ensuring improved labour standards for workers in economically sustainable ways. </p>
<p>Even with the push for “labour market flexibility” since the 1980s, things – especially at the bottom of labour market – would certainly be worse were it not for the award system and its current custodian, the Fair Work Commission. </p>
<p>This decision reveals the commission can still provide important leadership in supporting recovery from a deep economic crisis. More will be needed if we are to “build back better”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162862/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Buchanan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Fair Work Commission has shown it can still provide important economic leadership.John Buchanan, Professor, Discipline of Business Information Systems, University of Sydney Business School, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1562962021-03-07T19:07:49Z2021-03-07T19:07:49ZAustralia has a long history of coercing people into work. There are better options than ‘dobbing in’<p>After heated criticism from several quarters, the federal government last month announced a meagre rise in the JobSeeker payment for people looking for work. But at just $25 more a week, the subsidy remains the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-50-boost-to-jobseeker-will-take-australias-payment-from-the-lowest-in-the-oecd-to-the-second-lowest-after-greece-155739">second-lowest in the OECD</a>.</p>
<p>The government also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-breaks-my-heart-jobseekers-hit-back-at-25-a-week-dole-increase-20210225-p575p9.html">announced a hotline</a> for employers to “dob in” unemployed people who reject “suitable work”. These reports will contribute evidence that may be used to reduce or stop payments to JobSeeker recipients.</p>
<p>As many have observed, it is a policy with all-too-familiar resonances. A pallet of punitive and stigmatising measures have been rolled out in liberal economies <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/fast-policy">worldwide</a> over the past 40 years. These include drug testing, cashless welfare cards, mandatory job training and a variety of “mutual obligation” requirements.</p>
<p>As many <a href="https://onlinelibrary-wiley-com.ezproxy.library.sydney.edu.au/doi/epdf/10.1002/ajs4.101">academics</a> have argued, these measures have done much to inflict misery, and little to create jobs or foster a genuine sense of mutuality. They have also propped up the myth that individuals are overwhelmingly responsible for their own wagelessness, regardless of wider labour market conditions.</p>
<p>Has it always been this way?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/first-lift-jobseeker-then-add-on-fully-funded-unemployment-insurance-155383">First lift JobSeeker, then add on fully funded unemployment insurance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A long history of coercing people into work</h2>
<p>The idea that it is desirable to use the law to coerce people into employment relationships they do not wish to be in has a long history around the world. </p>
<p>To understand it, we need to look to the origins of both labour law and welfare law. The English parliament passed the <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100046308">1351 Statute of Labourers</a> in the wake of another plague – the Black Death. It required any able-bodied person below the age of 60 to accept any offer of work. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.familysearch.org/wiki/en/England_Old_Poor_Law,_1601_through_1833_(National_Institute)">Old Poor Laws</a>, introduced some 250 years later, were a landmark in the early history of welfare provision. They granted parishes the power to offer support to able-bodied people on the condition they could demonstrate they were “deserving”: that is, neither idle, dissolute, lazy, of poor character nor prone to vice. Together, these feudal and early modern laws reflected and encoded the practice of scrutinising the “unwillingness” of the wageless to work. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387919/original/file-20210305-19-b5axoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387919/original/file-20210305-19-b5axoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387919/original/file-20210305-19-b5axoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387919/original/file-20210305-19-b5axoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387919/original/file-20210305-19-b5axoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387919/original/file-20210305-19-b5axoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387919/original/file-20210305-19-b5axoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After the Black Death, the Statute of Labourers was used to coerce people into work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pierart dou Tielt/Wikicommons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the historian John Murphy <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Decent-Provision-Australian-Welfare-Policy-1870-to-1949/Murphy/p/book/9781138268296">has argued</a>, lawmakers in the Australian colonies were adamant the Australian “new world” would not reproduce the injustices of the old. The colonies vigorously rejected enacting any equivalent of the Poor Law. However, in the context of a sparsely inhabited continent afflicted by labour shortages, colonial laws concerning work were nevertheless highly coercive.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-finding-boosting-jobseeker-wouldnt-keep-australians-away-from-paid-work-150454">New finding: boosting JobSeeker wouldn't keep Australians away from paid work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>British <a href="https://reviews.history.ac.uk/review/1085">master and servant legislation</a>, which granted employers sweeping powers over employees for absconding, disloyalty and desertion, backed by criminal sanctions, were adopted with even harsher penalties in Australia than in the UK. </p>
<p>The NSW <a href="https://jade.io/j/?a=outline&id=444024">1828 Servants and Laborers Act</a> provided for up to six months’ imprisonment for absenteeism or desertion: double the penalty of the equivalent UK legislation. In the 19th century, employers didn’t “dob” on workers who declined a job. Rather, they dobbed on workers who left without permission. </p>
<p>In the early 20th century the state intervened in labour markets with a very different objective: to enshrine the pre-conditions of “civilisation”. Justice Higgins’ <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/harvester-judgement">famous Harvester Judgment</a> required minimum wages calculated on the basis of “the needs of the average employee, regarded as a human being living in a civilised community”, rather than the “higgling of the market”.</p>
<p>In addition to establishing the legal and economic institutions for a “wage earners’ welfare state”, the imperative to break with stigmatising traditions was expressed through campaigns to entrench welfare systems in Australia that did not depend on people proving their poverty and good character as a precondition to accessing collective funds.</p>
<p>Instead, reformers argued welfare should be organised around the principle of contributory insurance. This involved workers, employers and the state compulsorily saving for future needs. Under such a model (which Australia later embraced on a national scale for superannuation) funds could be accessed in times of need without the taint of “charity”. </p>
<h2>Enter the Great Depression</h2>
<p>These interwar campaigns failed on the whole, with Queensland the only state to pass an <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/887668">Unemployed Workers Insurance Act in 1922</a> under the leadership of “Red Ted” Theodore. As unemployment rates soared over 30%, the plausibility of insurance models as solution to large-scale social need, or a panacea for welfare stigma, faded and the spectre of “deservedness” in welfare provision returned.</p>
<p>Depression-era systems enabled Unemployment Relief Councils to offer “sustenance work” to men below the basic wage. They also offered forms of “relief” that hinged on proof they had not only applied for work but had moved across the district in pursuit of it. Where the master and servant laws had once functioned to keep workers in place, in the 1930s “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Decent-Provision-Australian-Welfare-Policy-1870-to-1949/Murphy/p/book/9781138268296">track rations</a>” policies kept workers on the move.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387918/original/file-20210305-22-127riym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387918/original/file-20210305-22-127riym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387918/original/file-20210305-22-127riym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387918/original/file-20210305-22-127riym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387918/original/file-20210305-22-127riym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387918/original/file-20210305-22-127riym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387918/original/file-20210305-22-127riym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During the Great Depression, ‘sustenance work’ was offered to men below the basic wage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Museum of Australia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The passage of wartime emergency laws added a new dimension to the state’s willingness and powers to intervene in individual employment relationships. These laws were aimed at securing the production of munitions and essential supplies and services. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.naa.gov.au/learn/learning-resources/learning-resource-themes/war/world-war-ii/requirement-teenage-identification-cards-amended-national-security-manpower-regulations">Manpower Directorate</a>, <a href="http://workers.labor.net.au/14/c_historicalfeature_bev.html#:%7E:text=Rather%2C%20the%20Government%20chose%20a,workers'%20relative%20efficiency%20and%20productivity."> Women’s Employment Board</a> and <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C1942L00034/Download">National Security (Employment) regulations</a> were used to scrutinise and curtail the movement of skilled workers between jobs. They were also used to keep “desirable” employees with particular employers and in jobs deemed essential.</p>
<p>These initiatives were introduced against a backdrop of <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2014/09/basics.htm">Keynesian economics</a>, which would expand after the war and drive a commitment to full employment as an economic objective. They would also engender more generous welfare systems, funded from general revenue, which required the needy to show they were “capable and willing to undertake suitable work” with no time limit on benefits or property means test.</p>
<h2>‘Dobbing in’ may not have the desired effect</h2>
<p>The notion of enlisting employers to “dob in” people unwilling to enter an employment relationship is likely to be ineffective, given the levels of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/may/19/the-unemployment-rate-gets-the-headlines-but-its-underemployment-we-should-look-out-for">under-employment</a> in the labour market and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/25/jobdobber-hotline-may-lead-to-bogus-claims-and-undermine-work-prospects-retail-body-says">negative</a> response the measure received from some employer groups.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-people-arent-unemployed-because-theyre-lazy-we-should-stop-teaching-children-myths-about-work-153643">No, people aren’t unemployed because they’re lazy. We should stop teaching children myths about work</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is likely, too, to deepen social division and increase the potential for exploitation of already vulnerable people. It is an illiberal policy, philosophically at odds with the notion that the parties in labour markets should be free to enter and withdraw from contracts as they see fit. </p>
<p>By placing the policy within the longer context of Australia’s 20th-century history of flawed “bold experiments” in regulating work and welfare, though, we can also see there are alternatives to coercing people into employment relationships. </p>
<p>States can actively intervene in labour markets on a principled basis to promote secure work that meets human need. They can pass policies that are designed to ameliorate, rather than inflame, ideas of “deservedness”. They can actively intervene in labour markets on the basis of the pursuit of a wider social “<a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/mission-economy-9780241435311">mission</a>”.</p>
<p>It is important not to romanticise these policy initiatives in Australian history. Each one of them simultaneously deepened processes of exclusion for some, while reconfiguring new possibilities of fair treatment for others. Nevertheless, in an age of rising inequality, social fragmentation and climate change, it is worth remembering these experiments, if only as a stimulus to boldly proposing new ones for our times.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Flanagan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia has a long history of making unemployment support contingent on the idea of “deservedness”. JobSeeker rules are an extension of that.Frances Flanagan, Sydney Fellow, Discipline of Work and Organisational Studies, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1546952021-02-05T13:07:42Z2021-02-05T13:07:42ZLatest jobs report shows why the unemployment rate needs fixing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382619/original/file-20210204-20-1hhf1e4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=203%2C0%2C5154%2C3094&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The number of people seeking jobless benefits has soared during the pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreak-AidLapses/9bd2db11e6844b25a520c99c34438d3e/photo?Query=unemployment&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=11163&currentItemNo=44">AP Photo/John Locher</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382762/original/file-20210205-24-ert14e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382762/original/file-20210205-24-ert14e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382762/original/file-20210205-24-ert14e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382762/original/file-20210205-24-ert14e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382762/original/file-20210205-24-ert14e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382762/original/file-20210205-24-ert14e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382762/original/file-20210205-24-ert14e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/10/24/773161382/is-the-unemployment-rate-broken">Many economists</a> <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Unemployment.html">would agree</a> that the official U.S. unemployment rate <a href="https://www.epi.org/blog/the-unemployment-rate-is-not-the-right-measure-to-make-economic-policy-decisions-around-the-coronavirus-driven-recession/">is an inadequate measure</a> of actual labor market conditions. </p>
<p>Although this is one of the most cited pieces of data on the economy as a whole, not many people understand how this indicator is calculated and who is and – more importantly – who isn’t included in it. The latest data, which found that <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">joblessness fell</a> from 6.7% in December to 6.3% in January, shows why.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GyTN5PYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">labor economist</a>, I believe it’s important for more Americans to take a closer look under the hood to get a more accurate view of U.S. unemployment.</p>
<h2>Vanishing act</h2>
<p>The unemployment rate that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-05/u-s-payrolls-rise-less-than-forecast-after-bigger-december-drop?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">newspapers commonly cite</a> is known as the U-3. But one of its biggest shortcomings is that it doesn’t include people who have given up looking for work. </p>
<p>To see this, let’s examine the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">latest figures</a>. At first glance, the drop in the unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage point seems like good news. A rise or fall of just 0.1 percentage point in the rate translates roughly to 160,000 people, which is equivalent to the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities">population of a medium-sized U.S. city</a>, so that would suggest over 600,000 people were no longer unemployed. </p>
<p>But the rate didn’t fall because more people, on net, found jobs. It fell because over 400,000 people “vanished” from the labor force – the vast majority of them women. The data show that yes, about 606,000 people were no longer considered unemployed in January, but only 201,000 people actually found jobs. </p>
<p>This is because to be <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed">classified as unemployed</a> by the Bureau of Labor Statistics a person must be without a job, currently available to work and actively looking for work in the previous four weeks. This excludes a lot of people who used to be gainfully employed but essentially got discouraged. In total, there were about 4.4 million fewer people in the labor force last month compared with a year earlier. That gives us a <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART">participation rate of 61.4%</a> – the lowest it’s been since 1975, excluding the worst months during the pandemic. </p>
<p>But even as the issue excludes some people who arguably should be included, the rate also <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#employed">includes people</a> it probably shouldn’t, such as people who worked for no pay and part-time workers working as little as a few hours a week. </p>
<h2>A search for solutions</h2>
<p>Fortunately, there is a published version of the unemployment rate intended to address some of these issues. It’s called the U-6, or the <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate-3306198">“real” unemployment rate</a> by the media, and <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE">shows joblessness was 11.1% in January</a>. That represents a difference of over 7 million jobs.</p>
<p><iframe id="6MQ3r" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6MQ3r/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>But even that one may be underestimating the true depths of unemployment because it assumes furloughed workers are employed and the self-employed are never without a job. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3467994">2019 paper aimed to remedy these issues</a> by classifying part-time workers as “62.7% employed” and those who have been furloughed as unemployed. It tries to incorporate the self-employed by assuming they are unemployed at the same rate as of the rest of the work force. The resulting unemployment rate is not updated, but would <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635178">put joblessness at 24.4%</a> just after the peak of the COVID-19 crisis in May – compared with 13.3% according to U-3 and 21.2% for U-6.</p>
<p><iframe id="kTEFT" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kTEFT/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Correctly estimating how many people are without work is hard. Besides these issues, rates that appear in headlines obscure significant variations such as race, education level and gender. </p>
<p>Finding a way to accurately reflect what’s really going on in the economy is pivotal to making good policy and fueling a recovery that lifts all boats. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154695/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Veronika Dolar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The widely reported unemployment rate – currently 6.3% – doesn’t fully reflect the reality of joblessness in the US economy.Veronika Dolar, Assistant Professor of Economics, SUNY Old WestburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1534442021-01-18T19:03:08Z2021-01-18T19:03:08ZThe economy can’t guarantee a job. It can guarantee a liveable income for other work<p>When the coronavirus pandemic hit Australia in March 2020, the Morrison government took bold and imaginative action. </p>
<p>The most notable examples were its income support programs – JobKeeper, paying a A$750 weekly subsidy to employers to keep workers on the payroll, and JobSeeker, which doubled unemployment benefits relative to the Newstart allowance, frozen in real terms for nearly 30 years. </p>
<p>These measures were announced as temporary. The government has already begun winding them back as the economy recovers from the worst impacts of the pandemic. On January 1 the JobSeeker supplement (being paid to about 1.3 million Australians) was cut from A$250 to A$150 a fortnight. It will cease in March.</p>
<h2>JobKeeper should end</h2>
<p>There are good reasons to phase out JobKeeper. It was designed specifically to assist businesses forced to scale back their activities due to COVID-19 and the restrictions introduced to control it. Eligibility is, therefore, tied to the impact of the lockdowns that took place nationally in the first half of 2020, and again in Victoria from August to October. </p>
<p>With those emergency times behind us, many businesses have returned to something like business as usual, while some have closed for good. Others have been brave enough to start new businesses. JobKeeper isn’t relevant to any of these. </p>
<p>It has been partially replaced by JobMaker, a wage subsidy for employers intended to encourage the employment of younger workers, which is scheduled to be wound back in March and completely phased out by October.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-defence-of-jobmaker-not-perfect-but-much-to-like-147898">In defence of JobMaker: not perfect, but much to like</a>
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</em>
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<p>The success of JobKeeper might lead to more consideration to temporary wage subsidies in response to future economic crises, perhaps along the lines of Germany’s <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/11/na061120-kurzarbeit-germanys-short-time-work-benefit">Kurzarbeit scheme</a>, which will run at least to the end of the year. But designing such a scheme would take a lot of time. Winding down JobKeeper in the meantime makes sense.</p>
<h2>JobSeeker is another matter</h2>
<p>The situation is very different with JobSeeker. </p>
<p>The inadequacy of the Newstart payment was widely recognised long before the pandemic. Organisations as disparate as the Australian Council of Social Service, the Business Council of Australia and the OECD have <a href="https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2019/11/a-sad-and-sorry-history-of-newstart/">endorsed an increase</a>. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has said raising Newstart said would <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/rba-boss-says-raising-newstart-more-effective-than-tax-cuts-for-the-wealthy">do more for the economy</a> than cutting taxes for high income earners.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379180/original/file-20210118-17-1v2aqqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wages and allowance expressed in real terms, expressed in 2018 dollars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/wage-reviews/2018-19/submissions/acoss-sub-awr1819.pdf">Australian Council of Social Service</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<hr>
<p>The system of unemployment benefits in place before JobSeeker worked on the assumption there were jobs aplenty for anyone willing and able. Unemployment was seen as reflecting personal defects or, more charitably, a lack of particular skills needed for “job readiness”. </p>
<p>This assumption was clearly untrue even before the pandemic. As the long history of booms, busts and economic crises have shown us, all workers are vulnerable (some more than others) to losing their job through no fault of their own. The pandemic has reinforced that lesson.</p>
<p>The failure of Australia’s labour market to provide full employment is evident from high and increasing levels of underemployment, particularly among young people. Even before the the pandemic an unacceptably high proportion of workers struggled with stringing together part-time “gigs”. </p>
<h2>Newstart is not enough</h2>
<p>Returning to the poverty levels of the former Newstart allowance as Jobkeeper winds down is a terrible option. We should restore parity between unemployment benefits and other social security benefits such as the age pension. </p>
<p>Until the 1990s these benefits were roughly equal in value. Since then the age pension and similar benefits have been increased in line with average earnings. Unemployment benefits, however, have been frozen in real terms since 1994.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing Newstart against poverty lines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379186/original/file-20210118-19-1wqmtly.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<hr>
<p>Compounding the increasing financial hardship, life for the unemployed has been made harder by the steady intensification of compliance and reporting requirements. </p>
<p>While the controversial “robodebt” scheme – in which many welfare recipients were hounded to <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-makes-changes-to-error-prone-robo-debt-collection-127324">repay money they did not owe</a> – has been abandoned, more fundamental change is needed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robodebt-was-a-fiasco-with-a-cost-we-have-yet-to-fully-appreciate-150169">Robodebt was a fiasco with a cost we have yet to fully appreciate</a>
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<hr>
<h2>A liveable income guarantee</h2>
<p>In an economy that cannot provide full-time work for everyone who wants it, we need to take a broader view of the way people can contribute. </p>
<p>To respond to the post-pandemic era, we should adopt the concept of a Liveable Income Guarantee (LIG). </p>
<p>The LIG is closely linked to the “participation income” proposed by <a href="https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Participation_Income">British economist Anthony Atkinson</a>. It starts from the principle that everyone has a right to a liveable income and the opportunity to contribute to society. It’s similar to a universal basic income but requires recipients to participate in socially useful activities.</p>
<p>The narrow measure of “formal employment” largely obscures the fact that many people without paid work productively contribute to society in other ways.</p>
<p>Unpaid work of parents, carers and volunteers has been estimated as equal to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/4a256353001af3ed4b2562bb00121564/fcac2b648f550b74ca257a75002adec9!OpenDocument">almost half of Australia’s GDP</a>.</p>
<p>While the contributions of carers has been partly recognised through the Carer’s Payment, other forms of unpaid work have not.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-liveable-income-guarantee-a-budget-ready-proposal-that-would-prevent-unemployment-benefits-falling-off-a-cliff-146990">Meet the Liveable Income Guarantee: a budget-ready proposal that would prevent unemployment benefits falling off a cliff</a>
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<p>What other contributions might be acknowledged under the LIG? There are many possibilities, most of which have some precedent but have not been considered as part of a comprehensive program of social participation, including volunteering, ecological care projects and artistic and creative activity.</p>
<p>As the year of JobSeeker and JobKeeper draws to a close, it’s time for the Morrison government to show some of the same boldness and imagination it had a year ago.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The inadequacy of the Newstart payment was recognised long before the pandemic. We shouldn’t go back to it.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1387182020-05-17T19:58:20Z2020-05-17T19:58:20ZSelf-employed Australians’ hours have fallen 32% since coronavirus hit – double the impact on all employees<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335326/original/file-20200515-138610-15zytln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5607%2C3396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia Bureau of Statistics data has confirmed the massive economic hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, with total hours worked across the economy officially <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-it-not-for-jobkeeper-unemployment-would-be-11-7-up-from-5-2-in-one-month-heres-how-the-numbers-pan-out-138268">falling 9%</a> between early March and early April 2020. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-it-not-for-jobkeeper-unemployment-would-be-11-7-up-from-5-2-in-one-month-heres-how-the-numbers-pan-out-138268">Were it not for JobKeeper, unemployment would be 11.7%, up from 5.2% in one month. Here's how the numbers pan out</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Our analysis, using data from the quarterly <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/hardship-distress-and-resilience-initial-impacts-covid-19-australia">ANUpoll</a>, suggests the self-employed have been hit harder, with average weekly hours dropping by almost a third between February and April 2020. More than eight out of 10 self-employed Australians say their profits have taken a significant hit. </p>
<h2>Decline in hours worked for the self employed</h2>
<p>The ANUpoll is an important economic and social barometer in Australia because it is a longitudinal survey – polling the same group of people multiple times throughout the year. This enables a more accurate snapshot of how individuals are being affected. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll">data we are releasing today</a> was collected from 3,155 Australians between April 14 and April 27. </p>
<p>It shows the 32% drop in hours worked by the self-employed (from 35.2 to 23.8 hours) was about double that of all employees, whose hours declined by 16% (from 35.5 to 29.7 hours).</p>
<p>The following infographic illustrates the degree of decline for all the self-employed in the poll (about 240 people). The blue dots above the red line show those working more hours in April; those below the line show those working less. Note the number at or near zero.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparing weekly hours worked by the self-employed in February to April 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Almost a third said their business would be unviable if financial trends continued for two months. If trends persisted for six months, 40% doubted they could survive. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-crisis-has-produced-many-negatives-but-some-positives-too-including-confidence-in-governments-anu-study-138018">COVID crisis has produced many negatives but some positives too, including confidence in governments: ANU study</a>
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<hr>
<h2>The impact on savings and wellbeing</h2>
<p>The proportion of self-employed saying they were finding it difficult or very difficult to survive on their current income increased from 29% to 36%.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proportion of people finding it difficult or very difficult on their current income, by employment type.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>This contrasts with an aggregate improvement among employees, most likely due to higher payments for those on lower incomes, such as the A$750 given to social security recipients. </p>
<p>21% of self-employed respondents said they had accessed retirement savings or superannuation early, compared with 7% of employees.</p>
<p>Among those thinking their business was unviable, 69% reported feeling anxious and worried, compared with 59% of those thinking their business was viable. Life satisfaction was also lower (5.6 out 10 compared to 7.0). </p>
<h2>What does this mean for the self-employed in 2020?</h2>
<p>Current policies includes a large amount of targeted assistance for the self-employed. Without that assistance, the outcomes summarised above would be far worse.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whatll-happen-when-the-moneys-snatched-back-our-looming-coronavirus-support-cliff-138527">What'll happen when the money's snatched back? Our looming coronavirus support cliff</a>
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<p>As physical distancing restrictions are eased, it will be important to continue to monitor how the self-employed are faring to ensure the level of government support is sufficient and well-targeted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Gray has received funding from many Commonwealth, State and Territory governments and a range of other organisations.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than eight out of 10 self-employed Australians have taken a significant financial hit from COVID-19, new ANUpoll data shows.Matthew Gray, Director, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityNicholas Biddle, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1226332019-09-02T19:52:45Z2019-09-02T19:52:45ZMost of us who work long hours like the jobs we are in. Those who don’t, change jobs quickly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290481/original/file-20190902-175710-2zvbdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=700%2C200%2C1884%2C1001&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Few Australians keep working long hours for long, unless they really, really like their jobs.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We are forever being told that we work long hours, many of them not formally paid. And we do. Nearly a quarter of working Australians say they work more than 50 hours per week. Around half of them say they would like to work less.</p>
<p>We are told long hours are bad for mental health, bad for families, and bad for the environment. But if they are really so bad, why do we work them? </p>
<p>One explanation is that we have no choice – many of us are trapped in jobs that require excessive hours from which we can’t escape.</p>
<h2>Trapped?</h2>
<p>But in Australia, these claims have been rarely tested.</p>
<p>We’ve done so in a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ssqu.12648">new paper</a> which makes use of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-reason-youre-feeling-no-better-off-than-10-years-ago-heres-what-hilda-says-about-well-being-121098">HILDA</a> Household Labour and Income Dynamics in Australia survey, and found them wanting.</p>
<p>Overall job satisfaction among overworkers is quite high, at an average of 7.1 out of 10. This is less than the level of satisfaction of workers in similar or identical jobs, who are working as many hours as they would like. Their overall satisfaction averages 7.9 out of 10. But nonetheless, overworkers like their jobs.</p>
<p>HILDA includes useful questions about the components of job satisfaction, including satisfaction with hours, pay, flexibility, security, and work itself. </p>
<p>Overworkers have relatively low satisfaction with hours and flexibility, at 5.1 and 6.1, respectively, compared with 7.9 and 7.8 for matched workers.</p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/go-home-on-time-working-long-hours-increases-your-chance-of-having-a-stroke-119388">Go home on time! Working long hours increases your chance of having a stroke</a>
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<p>But overworkers are compensated for these unwelcome hours with higher pay, better job security, and more interesting work. Their levels of satisfaction on these metrics are on par with those of matched workers or even exceed them in the case of satisfaction with the work itself.</p>
<p>The findings align with our findings about who is most likely to overwork. Managers are 10% more likely to work long hours than average workers, and professionals 5% more likely.</p>
<h2>It gets better</h2>
<p>HILDA follows the same people year after year, allowing us to track changes in work patterns over time. We use this remarkable feature to track dissatisfied overworkers (those reporting less than 5 on the satisfaction scale) to see whether they are are indeed “trapped” in unhappy jobs.</p>
<p>Every year, 28% of dissatisfied overworkers change jobs. On average their situation improves. Their wages are typically A$6 per hour higher and they work 11 hours per week fewer than dissatisfied overworkers who stay.</p>
<p>Those overworkers who don’t change jobs also typically see improvements.</p>
<h2>Hours shrink over time</h2>
<p>Over time, usually within two years, their hours fall back to the point at which they are no longer dissatisfied. We cannot see why in the data, but we can speculate that they are able to negotiate with their employers for fewer work hours or better pay or conditions.</p>
<p>What about those overworkers who remain dissatisfied after two years, don’t enjoy improvements in their conditions, and don’t change jobs – the ones who are trapped.</p>
<p>They are extremely rare. </p>
<p>Across the 15 years of HILDA data we examined, we found 13,069 cases of overwork and 1,929 cases of dissatisfied overwork. Only 139 did not change jobs within 24 months.</p>
<p>The number of cases is so small that we have to be be cautious when speculating about why they seem to be trapped. </p>
<p>We have identified two associations that deserve further investigation. </p>
<h2>Very few have nowhere to go</h2>
<p>First, 14% were hospitality, retail, or service managers; 10% were farm managers or agricultural workers; 8% were road and rail drivers. Each of these industries is characterised by rigid and often long work hours.</p>
<p>Second, very few of the trapped overworkers were educated to a university level. That makes them reliant on experience to command high wages. It means that changing jobs or industries to get fewer hours can cost them a lot in wages because they lose their job-specific and industry-specific experience. </p>
<p>Overall, becoming trapped in overwork is uncommon in Australia, meaning in this respect Australia’s labour market works well. </p>
<p>Incidentally, this is even more true for underwork. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-you-burnt-out-at-work-ask-yourself-these-4-questions-118128">Are you burnt out at work? Ask yourself these 4 questions</a>
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<p>Workers who say they want to increase their working hours can usually do it within 12 months. </p>
<p>Part-time work is important for parents and others trying to juggle caring responsibilities and employment. It will also become increasingly important for older Australians who might want to stay employed but work fewer hours as they near retirement. It is wrong to see part-time work as a problem. </p>
<p>Indeed, a fixation on restoring the 38- or 40-hour week might be linked to traditional, patriarchal views of men working full-time and women staying at home. It would impede new and creative ways of sharing caring and employment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-put-the-15-hour-work-week-back-on-the-agenda-106754">It's time to put the 15-hour work week back on the agenda</a>
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<p>Intervening in labour markets to support the traditional working week would have large (negative) economic effects. People typically resolve concerns about working hours by themselves, usually to their satisfaction.</p>
<p>If we remain concerned about overwork – notwithstanding that most of those doing it don’t see it as a problem for long – it would be wisest to tackle it by tackling our culture (things such as the protestant work-ethic) rather than by doing anything to impede the workings of labour market.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ve tested the claim that overworkers have no choice, and found it wanting.Mark Fabian, Lecturer, Australian National UniversityRobert Breunig, Professor of Economics and Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1182412019-07-08T20:36:30Z2019-07-08T20:36:30ZHow universities can really help PhD grads get jobs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279574/original/file-20190614-158921-4itgz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Explicitly teaching graduate students project management - a skill set they typically learn through trial and error - could mean better research and employability. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A rising tide floats all boats.</em> Until recently this has been Canada’s attitude towards the fact that there are <a href="https://www.universityaffairs.ca/opinion/margin-notes/the-problem-with-phd-training-in-canada/">are more PhD students than there are academic jobs</a>. Some in the sciences have warned that graduate training <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/111/16/5773">should be restricted</a>: for example, fewer students could be trained in specialized programs, and then they could move onto professional scientist positions inside universities. But in Canada, compared to the United States, the small scale of grants means there are fewer opportunities for university science researchers.</p>
<p>Where will the surplus of science researchers go? How are universities responding to the fact that a <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/dt-td/Rp-eng.cfm?TABID=2&LANG=E&A=R&APATH=3&DETAIL=0&DIM=0&FL=A&FREE=0&GC=48&GL=-1&GID=1334862&GK=1&GRP=1&O=D&PID=110930&PRID=10&PTYPE=109445&S=0&SHOWALL=0&SUB=0&Temporal=2017&THEME=123&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF=&D1=13&D2=0&D3=0&D4=0&D5=17&D6=0">majority of graduate student alumni are unemployed, sub-employed or have to receive training from a college</a> in order to procure a good-paying job? </p>
<p>The broader political climate and ideologies that have an impact on post-secondary funding may be changing, placing graduate schools at odds: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-doug-ford-university-college-post-secondary-grants-1.5121844">Ontario, for example, is now advising universities</a> that funding will be more tied to <a href="http://www.heqco.ca/SiteCollectionDocuments/Formatted%20Metrics%20for%20the%2021st%20Century_FINAL.pdf">skills and jobs outcomes</a>. </p>
<p>In addition to my stem cell research as a <a href="https://www.ucalgary.ca/bmb/profiles/dr-derrick-rancourt">professor in the Cumming School of Medicine</a> at the University of Calgary, I’ve begun <a href="https://taylorinstitute.ucalgary.ca/teaching-scholars/recipients/embedding-professional-development-education">research as a teaching scholar</a> to look at how better teaching and support for science graduate students can enhance student learning, growth and employability. </p>
<h2>Interviews aren’t just for facts</h2>
<p>As part of my research, I’ve developed an informational interview assignment for the courses I teach — largely popular among the 200 students I’ve assigned this to. </p>
<p>In this assignment, students need to talk to an established person in the health sciences working beyond the university. Through these interviews, students also learn that often professionally established people generous with their time, investing themselves in student aspirations. Amongst professionals, students gain tacit skills, learn to read social cues and have constructive conversations. They imagine themselves in a professional role, which motivates them to focus on their <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0894845317727616">career development</a>.</p>
<p>Students also gain an awareness that talking to people and soliciting their input — stakeholder engagement — is not only relevant to good science research, but also to finding a job.</p>
<p>In the next phase of research — with Beth Archer-Kuhn in the Faculty of Social Work, co-author of this article — we will examine how informational interviews help students map their careers and realize the educational benefits of <a href="https://ojs.lib.uwo.ca/index.php/tips/article/view/3645">inquiry-based learning</a>. </p>
<p>We’ll also look at how assigning these interviews are part of broader teaching strategies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0013161X06290650">that support transformational learning</a> supported by quality relationships. This means there would be a greater focus on students supporting and encouraging dialogue <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1541344608322678">and inviting critical self-reflection</a> through active learning, assessment and helpful critique, both in students’ classes or with research mentors or supervisors.</p>
<p>We are interested both in students’ holistic growth as learners, and their career development. </p>
<h2>Amplify and name existing skills</h2>
<p>Part of a better science graduate education is also about learning to articulate and tease out the marketability of existing skills that are already being learned.</p>
<p>Graduate students have much to offer the non-academic workplace, based upon their superior critical thinking and problem-solving skills. Employment challenges after graduate school may be partially due to an inability to explain or translate these skills into the broader workforce: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ryancraig/2017/03/17/the-skills-gap-is-actually-an-awareness-gap-and-its-easier-to-fix/#4c4b920a3ff4">a skills awareness gap</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282949/original/file-20190707-51273-1baamp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282949/original/file-20190707-51273-1baamp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282949/original/file-20190707-51273-1baamp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282949/original/file-20190707-51273-1baamp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282949/original/file-20190707-51273-1baamp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282949/original/file-20190707-51273-1baamp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282949/original/file-20190707-51273-1baamp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Students must learn to communicate the value they could bring to prospective employers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Alongside learning disciplinary knowledge and skills, students need to learn how to reflect on what they are learning as research collaborators and how it is connected to broader <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/full/10.1108/ET-08-2018-0186">employable skills</a> (such as self management, communication and teamwork) and existing employment gaps. </p>
<p>In a survey we recently conducted of Alberta biomedical companies with a graduate student, our preliminary findings suggested that project management skills are in need. The survey asked the companies and recruiters for their perspective about graduate student employability by asking four questions: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>What non-technical skills do graduate employees struggle with?</p></li>
<li><p>What non-technical skills do graduate employees excel at?</p></li>
<li><p>What skills link most to graduate employee success?</p></li>
<li><p>What’s the biggest change new graduates have to make?</p></li>
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<p>Out of the 235 emails that were delivered to biomedical companies, 93 usable replies were returned. </p>
<p>We heard the No. 1 skill that hiring managers said graduate students lacked (at 68 per cent) was project management. Project management is experiencing <a href="https://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/learning/job-growth-report.pdf?sc_lang_temp=en">significant growth</a>. The Anderson Economic Group, a firm that analyzes industries, developed a report for the Project Management Institute that Canada is expected to need 90,000 new project management jobs by 2027, a significant number of them in health care. </p>
<p>Project management is relatively new for medicine and is expected to help address <a href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ecpe/a-primer-on-project-management-for-health-care/">costs and quality</a>. For example, project managers can help implement changes in process and procedures ensuring that all team members are following new guidelines. </p>
<p>The second skill the Alberta biomedical companies said graduate students need (at 32 per cent) was customer interaction — being skilled and knowledgeable in how to have a service-oriented disposition attuned to customer needs. In medicine, <a href="https://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/Fulltext/2018/10001/A_Novel_Stakeholder_Engagement_Approach_for.12.aspx">stakeholder management skills</a> are particularly important based on how many different specialists, services or units can be involved in patient care, in addition to family members! </p>
<h2>Preparing students</h2>
<p>Parallels exist between <a href="https://grad.wiscweb.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/329/2017/11/2017-Project-Management-Workbook.pdf">the graduate thesis and project management</a>. But while students are practising the skills of project management, they aren’t typically equipped to connect these skills and their best practices to the wider workforce. </p>
<p>This is unfortunate because formal project management training would both help graduate students complete tasks on time, produce <a href="https://www.heliyon.com/article/e01447">higher quality research</a> and better launch graduate students into professional opportunities.</p>
<p>Likewise, stakeholder interaction could be easily made explicit in graduate studies by getting students outside the ivory tower when they formulate their research ideas and write their theses. </p>
<p>Governments have called for <a href="https://academic.oup.com/rev/article-abstract/24/1/51/1542639?redirectedFrom=fulltext">greater research impact</a> by translating an awareness of needs in society into research and development — in other words, acting in response to the <a href="http://designkmg.weebly.com/technology-push--market-pull.html">pulls of the market</a>. For example, in the field of health science research, a consideration of “market pulls” could <a href="https://academic.oup.com/fampra/article/25/3/154/470718">include needs of service users, patients, or those who care for people who use services early in a research process</a>. </p>
<p>Graduate students must think more about both their research and their professional profiles to position them to fill societal needs. Part of learning about that means engaging potential customers — project stakeholders — early in their research training. Informational interviews are just one part of doing so.</p>
<p>When students learn to pay attention to both critical thinking and relationships in the classroom, when they build connections to the world through inquiry-based and experiential learning and when they learn skills to engage stakeholders in their research, we hope to show their <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-help-students-overcome-setbacks-they-need-to-develop-academic-buoyancy-113469">chances of success — and their buoyancy — increases</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derrick Rancourt receives funding from Canadian Institutes for Health Research and Natural Sciences and Engineering Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beth Archer-Kuhn receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities research council of Canada (SSHRC) as a co-investigator for a connection grant, Reigniting curiosity and inquiry in higher education: a working conference. </span></em></p>Graduate students have much to offer the non-academic workforce based on critical thinking and problem-solving skills. Universities need to help them articulate these skills for employers.Derrick Rancourt, Professor, Cumming School of Medicine, University of CalgaryBeth Archer-Kuhn, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Social Work, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1169732019-05-24T05:24:29Z2019-05-24T05:24:29ZUber drivers’ experience highlights the dead-end job prospects facing more Australian workers<p>Being an Uber driver doesn’t seem like a great job. Conditions <a href="http://www.twu.com.au/home/campaigns/rideshare-drivers/">aren’t great</a> and the rate of pay, already typically <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/subsidising-billionaires-simulating-net-incomes-uberx-drivers-australia">less than the minimum wage</a>, is <a href="https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/institute/report-ope-2018.htm">declining</a>. </p>
<p>So why do Uber drivers keep driving? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uber-drivers-strike-organizing-labour-in-the-gig-economy-115911">Uber drivers strike: Organizing labour in the gig economy</a>
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<p>When we asked them, they <a href="https://social-science.uq.edu.au/files/9015/Flexibility%20%20Insecurity_An%20Insight%20into%20the%20Experiences%20of%20Uber%20Drivers%20in%20Brisbane%20%28April%202019%29%20The%20University%20of%20Queensland.pdf">told us</a> the job was better than any others they had. </p>
<p>That’s something that should concern us all. </p>
<p>Across the world the proportion of people in “insecure” jobs is creeping upwards. <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/theausinstitute/pages/2807/attachments/original/1528337971/Insecure_Work_Factbook.pdf?1528337971">Less than half</a> of all Australian workers now have permanent full-time jobs.</p>
<p>As the “gig-economy” grows, casuals and contractors without protections such as paid leave and job security may become the new normal. So too may be the experiences of those who end up driving for Uber.</p>
<h2>The best of a bad situation</h2>
<p>Our team interviewed 24 Uber drivers in Brisbane. Most had worked in hospitality or service sectors. These drivers were earning A$10 to A$17.50 an hour. Almost all reported some form of economic insecurity working for Uber. </p>
<p>Yet most said they were satisfied working as a “driver-partner” because their other options were awful. Many turned to Uber because of chronic underemployment, with their current job not giving them enough hours. </p>
<p>According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/business-law/underemployment-epidemic-federal-budget-needs-address">8.1%</a> of Australian workers are underemployed, up from 2.5% in the 1970s. The graph below shows Australians want more work but aren’t finding it. </p>
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<p><iframe id="osGLJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/osGLJ/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Surprisingly this was an experience related to us by drivers who had been working in areas such as advertising, business management and finance. They told us about “commission only” jobs, and having to “win” projects from potential employers, which meant they always felt insecure and didn’t have reliable income. </p>
<p>Uber was essential to them in making up the difference. In fact, for many Uber became their primary income.</p>
<p>Others told us about even worse working conditions at their old jobs. Former hospitality workers struggled with too few hours, unpaid work outside of shifts and terrible managers. </p>
<p>While they earned less per hour driving than working at a restaurant, they were free to work as long as they wanted. That flexibility meant they could do things such as pick up their children from school without having to take time off. </p>
<p>So in many ways Uber has been a step up for these workers. </p>
<h2>Driving into uncertainty</h2>
<p>While Uber drivers have greater flexibility and earn extra income, should workers have to choose between bad and worse? </p>
<p>This points to a bigger problem than just ride-sourcing: precarious, insecure and non-standard work with uncertain job length, few benefits and unpredictable pay is becoming an issue for more and more Australians. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/1033868/insecure-work_final-18052018-final.pdf">Australian Council of Trade Unions</a> regards Australia as a “global pacesetter in creating precarious jobs”. It says about 4 million people now work on short-term contracts, for labour hire companies and as so-called independent contractors, as is the case with Uber drivers. </p>
<p>The proportion of Australian workers in some type of non-standard employment is the third-highest in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (behind the Netherlands and Switzerland), according to a 2015 <a href="https://www.oecd.org/social/in-it-together-why-less-inequality-benefits-all-9789264235120-en.htm">report</a>.</p>
<p>Non-standard work includes any job that is not full-time and permanent. It is less likely to have the same rights and entitlements, such as sick leave and paid holidays. </p>
<p>This type of employment was historically common in industries such as hospitality and retail. But our interviews with skilled workers turning to Uber presents evidence that non-standard work is spreading to other industries. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sugar-daddy-capitalism-even-the-worlds-oldest-profession-is-being-uberised-109426">Sugar daddy capitalism: even the world's oldest profession is being uberised</a>
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<h2>Closing legal loopholes</h2>
<p>Businesses such as Uber use legal loopholes to avoid responsibilities as employers. As more companies try to “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12290-015-0378-y">uberise</a>” their workforce, the future of work becomes more precarious.</p>
<p>Worker organisations are important for protecting <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/policy/industrial-relations/uber-settling-unfair-dismissal-claims-for-deactivated-drivers-20170629-gx0z2e">individual workers</a>. But federal and state governments must do more to close the legal loopholes and protect all workers. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-power-is-finally-making-the-gig-economy-fairer-101309">People power is finally making the gig economy fairer</a>
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<p>The most important change is ensuring workplace laws cover non-standard workers. The law should ensure contractors such as Uber drivers are protected from unfair dismissal, minimum wage violations and safety violations.</p>
<p>Non-standard forms of employment can be useful for entrepreneurs, primary carers and students. But without basic guarantees of income and regular work, contractors are at the mercy of whoever pays their bill. </p>
<p>If almost half of Australians are precariously employed, we need a change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many Uber drivers do their job because the alternatives are worse. It’s an unhappy work choice faced by an increasing number of Australians.Peter "PJ" Holtum, Postdoctoral research fellow, The University of QueenslandGreg Marston, Head of School, School of Social Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1170242019-05-14T12:38:51Z2019-05-14T12:38:51ZIndia Tomorrow part 6: what young Indians want<p>Like many young people around the world, young Indians have big dreams for their future. But for a lot of people in India in their 20s and 30s, there is a large gap between their aspirations and the jobs and opportunities available to them. </p>
<p>In part six of <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a>, a series from <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">The Anthill podcast</a>, we’ll examine the concerns and demands of these young Indian voters. </p>
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<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b90d?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
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<p>One in eight people in the world is an Indian under the age of 30. It’s an astonishing statistic – and the reason, according to Craig Jeffrey, why India’s young people are such an important demographic for the future of Asia and the world. </p>
<p>In this episode of India Tomorrow, we feature an interview that Jeffrey, the director of the Australia India Institute and professor of development geography at the University of Melbourne, did with Bageshri Savyasachi, an editorial intern at The Conversation Australia, for their podcast <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/trust-me-podcast">Trust Me I’m An Expert</a>. </p>
<p>Jeffrey says that jobs, education and healthcare will be driving the decisions of India’s young people as they vote in the 2019 elections.</p>
<p>In this episode, we also hear some examples of what young Indians want their future to look like. Sneha Krishnan, assistant professor in human geography at the University of Oxford, explains that many of the young women going through college who she’s interviewed wanted a “sophisticated” life. She said this largely referred to a desire to: “Being able to live a life where they felt kind of able to make their own choices.”</p>
<p>And we hear from Suryakant Waghmore, associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay, about the organisations working to turn caste into community for young people moving into large urban environments. Waghmore also explains what he found during a research project on inter-caste marriage which analysed the preferences of 2,000 profiles on marriage dating websites. </p>
<p>You can listen to a longer version of Savyasachi’s interview with Jeffrey on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-election-2019-millions-of-indian-youth-are-underemployed-and-going-to-the-polls-113563">May 6 edition of Trust Me I’m An Expert</a>, a podcast from The Conversation Australia, available wherever you get your podcasts from.</p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-young-indians-want-india-tomorrow-part-6-podcast-transcript-117045">transcript of this episode here</a>, and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</p>
<p>This is the last episode of our India Tomorrow series before the results of the 2019 election results are due to be announced on May 23. Stay tuned for our special results episode in which a panel of academic experts will discuss the results. Do get in touch with any questions for the panel via podcast@theconversation.com or reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/anthillpod">@anthillpod</a>. </p>
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<p><em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">Subscribe to our Anthill podcast newsletter to hear about new episodes as soon as they drop.</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill, and to Sunanda Creagh at The Conversation Australia for her production help.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: Sanjeev Gupta/EPA.</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a> all via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p>Part six of The Anthill podcast's India Tomorrow series focuses on the concerns of young Indians.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkAnnabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1133602019-03-21T18:54:09Z2019-03-21T18:54:09ZJobs but not enough work. How power keeps workers anxious and wages low<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265063/original/file-20190321-93039-1ihvak9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=138%2C36%2C1500%2C866&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The unemployment rate is 4.9%, but the underemployment rate is 8.1%</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is the third in a three-part mini-symposium on Wages, Unemployment and Underemployment presented by The Conversation and the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. Read the other pieces in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/assa-symposium-67964">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>For the moment, Australia’s unemployment rate has a “4” in front of it. The rate for February, released on Thursday, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">came in at 4.9%</a>. It’s the first time the rate has begun with a four since the Rudd/Gillard government when it dipped below 5% several times, and since the Howard and Rudd governments in the leadup the global financial crisis when it usually began with a four and at one point dipped to 3.9%.</p>
<p>It’d be good news were it not for another, almost as important, indicator - the underemployment rate. </p>
<p>Workers are underemployed when they are working fewer hours than they want to. They might be working part-time instead of full-time, or part-time for 10 hours a week instead of 20, or full-time at 35 hours instead of 40.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265049/original/file-20190321-93051-e32m42.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265049/original/file-20190321-93051-e32m42.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265049/original/file-20190321-93051-e32m42.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265049/original/file-20190321-93051-e32m42.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265049/original/file-20190321-93051-e32m42.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265049/original/file-20190321-93051-e32m42.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265049/original/file-20190321-93051-e32m42.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">ABS Labour Force</a></span>
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<hr>
<p>Over the past five years the proportion of the workforce underemployed has climbed from 7.2% to 8.1% while the unemployment rate has climbed from 5.2%, then fallen, hitting 4.9%.</p>
<p>The underemployed are disproportionately women (60%), and are concentrated in the retail, health care and hospitality industries. Their jobs are more likely to be insecure, with inadequate hours often accompanied by unpredictable or uncertain hours. </p>
<p>They are in industries that have seen growth in temporary migrant workers and the systematic underpayment of workers, reflecting changes in the temporary visa system as well as <a href="https://doi.org/10.20851/wages-crisis-04">weaknesses in the enforcement of wage laws</a>. </p>
<p>Wages are the other side of the bad news. No one who has made a regular appearance at the plethora of parliamentary inquiries that have accompanied the rewriting of Australia’s industrial relations system over the past 23 years would be surprised that wage growth is bumping along at historic lows.</p>
<p>The reworked industrial relations system - and the social, cultural, economic and labour market context in which it sits - has reshaped power at work. Wave after wave of change has had the end result of shifting power to employers. And it is that change in power that, more than anything, explains the stalling of wages growth.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=869&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1093&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1093&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265055/original/file-20190321-93060-qtde5w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1093&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Open letter in Tuesday’s Financial Review.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://ppesydney.net/open-letter-on-the-benefits-of-promoting-faster-wage-growth/">AFR</a></span>
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<p>As 124 labour market experts said in their <a href="http://ppesydney.net/open-letter-on-the-benefits-of-promoting-faster-wage-growth/">open letter in support of wages growth</a> published in the Australian Financial Review this week, we are witnessing the longest sustained rate of slow wage growth since the end of the Second World War. </p>
<p>It certainly isn’t the result of falling productivity, which has actually climbed 39% in the past two decades while real wages have climbed only 14%. </p>
<p>The feminisation of employment has also helped shift the power balance at work. Women’s share of the total workforce climbed from 43% to 47% between 1999 and 2019.</p>
<p>Research in many countries tells us that women are no less inclined to join a union and have no less an appetite to improve their working conditions than men. However, women’s caring responsibilities and the practical demands they face, along with the nature of the industries in which they work, often make it harder for them to bargain or to take industrial action.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265052/original/file-20190321-93044-12f77y7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0">ABS wage price index</a></span>
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<hr>
<p>Analysts focus on the causes of this historic wages stall. Reserve Bank Governors caution about its consequences for the economy. But in thousands of households across Australia, a five-year stall in wages growth exacts a high human cost. It particularly affects those already on low pay, for whom a few dollars a week mean the difference between making rent, paying for school excursions or filling the fridge. ‘Frugal comfort’ of the kind promised by Justice Higgins in 1906 (to full-time men at least), is a long way from the anxiety that flatlining wages mean for many Australians.</p>
<p>The wage system shapes the fortunes of Australian households. Its reverberations have become more powerful with the growing number of two-earner households and a retirement incomes system that increasingly mirrors wage earnings. </p>
<p>The growing awareness of wage inequality and unevenly rewarded productivity, in combination with increasing job insecurity and weakening protections at work, is likely to feed into the election campaign. </p>
<p>Redressing the basic and widening power imbalance that underlies the employment and wage statistics has become a public necessity that has supporters in some surprising places. It is overdue. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The <a href="https://www.assa.edu.au">Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia</a> is one of Australia’s four learned academies. The ASSA coordinates the promotion of research, teaching and advice in the social sciences, promotes scholarly cooperation across disciplines, comments on national needs and priorities in the social sciences, and provides advice to government on issues of national importance.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Pocock has received funding from the Australian Research Council, various government and industry bodies, and from trade unions. She is running for the Greens in the seat of Adelaide in the forthcoming federal election.</span></em></p>We’ve the lowest unemployment rate in eight years, but little to celebrate.Barbara Pocock, Emeritus Professor University of South Australia, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1130342019-03-12T19:07:41Z2019-03-12T19:07:41ZWhy Australia should engage with the unemployment crisis affecting Indian youth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263269/original/file-20190311-86690-ryxpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C13%2C3102%2C2049&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mumbai, India. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">sladkozaponi/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Loki Singh is a 28-year-old living in the west of Uttar Pradesh, India. He has three university degrees from the local college, but despite persisting, he has not been able to get a government job. </p>
<p>“Degrees here are useless,” he told me. “A university is a place where the professors don’t teach and the students don’t learn.”</p>
<p>For every eight people in the world, one is an Indian youth. This global demographic is facing a set of converging crises.</p>
<p>Statistics have recently emerged regarding the scale and nature of India’s youth unemployment problem. Outright unemployment has historically been low in India, but figures from a <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-shape-of-the-jobs-crisis/article26252357.ece">recent survey</a> (which has not been <a href="https://thewire.in/labour/labour-bureau-unemployment-data-nsso">made public</a>) show 17.4% of India’s rural men and 13.6% of rural women between the ages of 15 and 29 are unemployed. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-and-india-some-way-to-go-yet-76085">Australia and India: some way to go yet</a>
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<p><a href="https://thewire.in/economy/india-worsening-employment-crisis">According to</a> Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Professor Santosh Mehrotra, the number of people who are not in employment, education or training (NEET) rose from 70 million in 2004 to an estimated 116 million in 2018 in India.</p>
<p>The underlying problem of underemployment is even more worrying. Throughout the 2000s, the number of young people in agriculture in India decreased, as you would expect in a modernising economy. But in the 2010s, the number increased. Most are unable to run viable farms and are effectively stuck in an occupation they may have hoped to escape.</p>
<p>This crisis cannot be attributed to the recent policies of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Indeed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made the issue of youth unemployment a <a href="https://www.narendramodi.in/pm-modi-s-interaction-with-youngsters-from-the-world-of-start-ups-innovation-540400">major focus</a> for policy. Widespread unemployment and underemployment is instead a product of India’s colonial history and the inability of successive post-colonial regimes to generate employment growth or the conditions required for entrepreneurship.</p>
<h2>A cluster crisis</h2>
<p>The problem of unemployment and underemployment is a cluster crisis with three components. </p>
<p>First, it reflects the inability of the state to develop a form of economic growth that creates jobs. Jobless growth has become a hallmark of India’s experience of economic liberalisation since the early 1990s.</p>
<p>Second, youth unemployment and underemployment results from a crisis in tertiary education. There are some excellent universities and colleges in India. But they are rare. The state universities and their affiliated colleges are starved of funds. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-its-the-right-time-for-australia-and-india-to-collaborate-on-higher-education-76011">Why it's the right time for Australia and India to collaborate on higher education</a>
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<p>The university to which Loki Singh’s college is affiliated has more than half a million students - it is one of the largest universities in the world. But students are rarely taught by research active staff and the facilities are poor. Like most universities and colleges in India, the university <a href="https://www.natureasia.com/en/nindia/article/10.1038/nindia.2018.107">faces major governance challenges</a>. </p>
<p>Third, the wider environment is inimical to enterprise in many parts of India. In many northern states of India in particular, problems in obtaining institutional credit; poor quality policing; an atrophied local and regional legal system; weak road infrastructure; and poor public health care provision militate against youth starting businesses that employ others and reflect their ambitions and talents. </p>
<h2>Why should Australians care?</h2>
<p>This is the point in the discussion where an Australian audience might ask what all this has to do with them, and why they should care. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-report-provides-important-opportunity-to-rethink-australias-relationship-with-india-100319">Government report provides important opportunity to rethink Australia's relationship with India</a>
</strong>
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<p>Australians and Australian universities are increasingly connected to people like Loki Singh through the flow of information and ideas. There are routes to developing joint projects, such as partnerships with socially-minded NGOs (<a href="http://www.ozgreen.org/">OzGreen</a>) and universities in India seeking to address the problem of unemployment and poor educational provision.</p>
<p>For too long, Australian universities have taken a narrow view of international engagement, summed up by student recruitment plus some research facilitation. Their interaction with higher education is often restricted to a tiny minority of elite institutions. There is a need to profoundly widen our circles of interest and action to engage with the issues facing the majority of India’s youth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113034/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Jeffrey receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is Director of the Australia India Institute which receives funding from the Commonwealth Government of Australia and Victorian Government.</span></em></p>India’s youths, an eighth of the world’s population, are facing a growing unemployment crisis. Australia must engage with this global demographic, for our own benefit and theirs.Craig Jeffrey, Director and CEO of the Australia India Institute; Professor of Development Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1006682018-08-02T20:23:50Z2018-08-02T20:23:50ZSelf-employment and casual work aren’t increasing but so many jobs are insecure – what’s going on?<p>That <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-has-the-level-of-casual-employment-in-australia-stayed-steady-for-the-past-18-years-56212">casualisation</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-jobs-arent-becoming-less-secure-99739">self-employment</a> rates are not increasing is often trotted out to dispute perceptions that workplace insecurity is growing.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-jobs-arent-becoming-less-secure-99739">Australian jobs aren't becoming less secure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>But retorts like this miss a few key points.</p>
<p>First, the real causes of growing insecurity aren’t the type of contracts people are on. While these things matter, the real causes of insecurity are the way organisations are being structured these days. This is designed to minimise costs, transfer risk from corporations to employees, and centralise power away from employees.</p>
<p>Second, aggregate data mask variations between industries. </p>
<p>Third (and least importantly) there are some measurement issues. </p>
<h2>Reducing cost and risk</h2>
<p>Large corporations want to minimise their costs and risks, avoid accountability when things go wrong and ensure products have the features they want.</p>
<p>This partially explains the <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wh1.thewebconsole.com/wh/1401/images/FranchisingAustralia2014_webversion.pdf">dramatic increase</a> in franchised businesses – the franchisee bears responsibility for scandals such as <a href="https://www.mybusiness.com.au/human-resources/4156-7-eleven-wages-scandal-snares-more-operators">underpaying workers</a>. </p>
<p>Other corporations <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/policy/industrial-relations/baiada-to-pay-500000-to-underpaid-contractors-20151025-gkhzg7">call in labour hire companies</a> to take on responsibility for their workers. This cuts costs and transfers risk down the chain – which means jobs are more insecure. </p>
<p>Some set up spin-offs or subsidiaries. Some just outsource to contracting firms.</p>
<p>Most people working for franchises, spin-offs, subsidiaries and labour hire firms are still <em>employees</em>. It’s more efficient for capital to control workers through the employment relationship than to pay them piece rates as contractors. That would run the risk of worker desertion or of shortcuts affecting quality. </p>
<h2>Is casualisation the same as insecurity?</h2>
<p>Even employees at the bottom of the supply chain might get annual and sick leave. Offering leave helps attract labour and might be cheaper than paying <a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/about-us/news-and-media-releases/newsletter/august-2014/understanding-casual-penalty-rates">casual loading</a>. </p>
<p>And there’s no need to hire someone on a casual contract if you can make them redundant when the work dries up — if, for example, you lose your contract with the main parent firm. If your firm can go bankrupt, then you often won’t even have to pay redundancy benefits. </p>
<p>There are also the measurement issues. The Australian Bureau of Statistics counts the number of “<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%5Cabs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/A4A44798D68CAFB9CA257EEA000C5421?Opendocument">employees without paid leave entitlements</a>”. People take this to mean “casuals”. On this measure, the share of casuals in the workforce has shifted little in a decade, after growing substantially earlier.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-has-the-level-of-casual-employment-in-australia-stayed-steady-for-the-past-18-years-56212">FactCheck: has the level of casual employment in Australia stayed steady for the past 18 years?</a>
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<p>If we take the liberty of labelling people without leave as “casuals”, then the number of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&63330do001c_201708.xls&6333.0&Data%20Cubes&FCE52FD7598B96D7CA25823D0018F76F&0&August%202017&26.02.2018&Latest">“casual” full-timers grew by 38%</a> between 2009 and 2017. Labour hire workers are usually casual full-time workers. </p>
<p>“Permanent” full-timers (those with annual leave) grew by just 10%. </p>
<p>On the other hand, some organisations have found relying on part-time casuals counterproductive, as workers had no commitment and became unreliable. Some large retailers now use “permanent” part-timers rather than casuals. </p>
<p>So-called “casual” part-timers <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/productsbyCatalogue/A8CAED8E5F9FB2E1CA257F1F00044E8C?OpenDocument">grew by just 13%</a> between 2009 and 2016. “Permanent” part-timers grew by 36%.</p>
<p>A lot of variation between industries and periods is hidden by aggregate figures. Franchising has grown in retailing. Labour hire in mining. Outsourcing in the public sector. Second jobs in manufacturing. Spin-offs in communications. Casualisation in education and training. Global supply chains send jobs overseas to low-paid, often dangerous workplaces in a number of industries.</p>
<p>The ABS doesn’t measure the precarity of work experienced by people who now work in franchises, spin-offs, subsidiaries or contractor firms. But as their continued employment depends on the fortunes of their direct employer, more than the firm at the top of the chain, precarity is real.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/precarious-employment-is-rising-rapidly-among-men-new-research-94821">Precarious employment is rising rapidly among men: new research</a>
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<h2>Underemployment has grown</h2>
<p>Many “permanent” part-time jobs may be good jobs. But the continuing growth of part-time employment is linked to another form of insecurity – underemployment.</p>
<p>Between 2010-11 and 2016-17, the number of hours sought, but not worked, by underemployed people <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/SUBSCRIBER.NSF/log?openagent&6150055003do022_2016201706.xls&6150.0.55.003&Data%20Cubes&C0AC682CFBB6D9C6CA2582CC001FF16C&0&September%202017&17.07.2018&Latest">grew by 31%</a>. This is five times the total growth in hours worked. </p>
<p>Large firms don’t even need to spin off workers to smaller business units to make use of underemployment.</p>
<p>There are other important sources of worker insecurity. In Australia, for example, firms <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/08/29/streets-look-to-cut-workers-pay-and-ice-cream-fans-are-furious_a_23187395/">can seek to have enterprise agreements terminated</a>, or get a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-28/esso-protest-marks-12-months-with-union-gathering-at-longford/9918668">handful of workers</a> to sign new agreements, to cut pay and conditions. </p>
<p>Some firms seek to put employees onto <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/factory-workers-strike-over-contract-plan-20050503-ge0344.html">contrived</a> arrangements that make them out to be contractors. Often that’s <a href="https://www.business.gov.au/people/contractors/independent-contractors/unfair-contracts-and-sham-contracts">illegal</a>. </p>
<p>The growing insecurity and hence low power of workers – even those with leave entitlements – helps explain why <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2018/05/12/the-truth-about-wage-stagnation/15260472006221">wage growth is stagnating</a>. </p>
<p>Indeed, the successful “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/war-on-wages-australians-are-working-harder-and-going-backwards-20170803-gxoh9c.html">war on wages</a>” may be the biggest sign of worker insecurity. </p>
<h2>And what about the gig economy?</h2>
<p>The gig economy, or more accurately the platform economy, is a big challenge to the employment relationship. This is because virtual platforms provide a new, cheap form of control that may replace the need for the employment relationship. </p>
<p>But there are still limits to the use of cost cutting and of platform control. The gig economy will grow, but it won’t overtake the employment relationship.</p>
<p>Gig work is one form of self-employment and we should remember that, overall, self-employment is not increasing. Self-employment declined between 2000 and 2014 in 26 countries for which data were available, and increased in only 11 (see chart below).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Changes in self-employment, 2000-2014, various countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">OECD</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>What’s more, even the relative importance of large firms in total employment is not decreasing. That’s probably because of another trend — the <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/andrew-leigh-and-adam-triggs/2017/17/2017/1495011536/few-big-firms">concentration</a> of <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/03/24/corporate-concentration">markets</a> in the hands of those firms.</p>
<p>In short, large powerful firms are getting more powerful, but their directly employed workforces are not getting larger. The result is a lot of workers with insecure incomes and a lot of insecure small-business owners as well.</p>
<p>This means insecurity gnaws away, even while the employment relationship remains the dominant mode for deploying labour, and employment with leave entitlements remains its main form.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100668/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Peetz has received funding over the years from the Australian Research Council and a range of public and private sector organisations. This article does not directly arise from any of those projects.</span></em></p>Most workers are still employees, not casuals or gig workers. So what has changed to increase the insecurity of workers?David Peetz, Professor of Employment Relations, Centre for Work, Organisation and Wellbeing, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/901042018-01-16T19:13:51Z2018-01-16T19:13:51ZThe problem isn’t unskilled graduates, it’s a lack of full-time job opportunities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202022/original/file-20180116-53289-12i0rsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The problem doesn't appear to be with the relevance of qualifications and skillsets to employment, but rather with the scarcity of employment. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Coalition government’s position on young people is best captured by the phrase <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/glossy/welfare/html/welfare_03.htm">“earning or learning”</a>. If you are under 30, the government expects you to be studying in an educational institute or working for a living. </p>
<p>Leaving the politics aside, the relationship between education and employment is usually a good indicator of labour market health: generally speaking, the more educated you are, the more earning potential you have.</p>
<p>So what happens when this relationship comes undone? Unfortunately, young people have been finding this out the hard way.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/gen-y-1496">“Gen Y”</a> (born in the 1980s and 1990s), it seems being the most educated generation does not necessarily translate to being the most employed generation. Recently, this fact has been highlighted by the release of the <a href="https://www.qilt.edu.au/docs/default-source/gos-reports/2017/2017_gos_national_report_final_accessiblea45d8791b1e86477b58fff00006709da.pdf?sfvrsn=ceb5e33c_4&_cldee=c29waGllLmhlaXplckB0aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uZWR1LmF1&recipientid=contact-09dc957fbd87e7118120e0071b66a691-0930c8235d7d4a10bd63a0fdd8972b65&esid=f8ef3ba5-1cf7-e711-8134-e0071b68f7c1">Graduate Outcomes Survey</a> and <a href="https://www.qilt.edu.au/docs/default-source/ess/ess-2017/2017_ess_national_report_final.pdf?sfvrsn=19b2e33c_10">Employer Satisfaction Survey</a>. Together, these reports capture the mood of the current labour market. </p>
<h2>The transition from study to work</h2>
<p>The Graduate Outcomes Survey, canvasses graduates four months after graduation, asking them a range of questions. This includes asking graduates about the type of work they do, how much they earn, and how satisfied they are with their employment. It also covers more complex issues, like skills utilisation, demographic inequalities and how much study prepares graduates for work.</p>
<p>The good news is the overall number of undergraduates in full-time employment has risen to 71.8%, up from 68.1% in 2014. The bad news is this is still well below the pre-<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/pdf/the-global-financial-crisis.pdf">Global Financial Crisis</a> employment level of 85.2% in 2008. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/walking-the-line-on-gfc-times-17153">Walking the line on GFC times</a>
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<p>Worse still, the latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey <a href="http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2437426/HILDA-SR-med-res.pdf">data</a> shows graduate wages are shrinking over time. For those who graduated between 2006-09, the average weekly wage was A$947.31 in their first year of graduate employment. For those who finished university between 2012-13, the graduate wage shrunk to A$791.58 a week - and that’s before factoring in inflation.</p>
<p>There are also uneven rates of employment, as some areas of study provide better employment prospects than others.</p>
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<p>Some of this is unsurprising. Medicine continues to provide full-time employment, while creative arts offers less in the way of traditional employment outcomes. But despite the emphasis on <a href="http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/STEMstrategy290713FINALweb.pdf">STEM</a> graduates in the government’s <a href="https://www.innovation.gov.au/page/national-innovation-and-science-agenda-report">innovation agenda</a>, businesses are failing to utilise the existing scientific workforce.</p>
<p>The question of skills utilisation proves to be similarly troublesome. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-educated-and-underemployed-are-we-building-a-nation-of-phd-baristas-53104">Young, educated and underemployed: are we building a nation of PhD baristas?</a>
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<p>Two out of three graduates with full-time work reported they took a job unrelated to their study area, due to external labour market factors. These factors include employment relevant to their study not being available and employers wanting graduates to have more work experience, as well as graduates only being able to find part-time or casual work. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, part-time work is becoming a more likely employment pathway for graduates. Given that over a third of undergraduates are working part-time, it might be tempting to assume this shift away from full time work reflects a choice made by young people. </p>
<p>Contrary to claims young people want or need “flexibility” (like those made by business leaders such as Myer’s <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/economy/employment/workforce-and-productivity-summit-regulation-lags-millennials-flexibility-20151208-gliza9">David Umbers</a> and PwC’s <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/just-graduated-dont-know-what-luke-sayers/?trk=prof-post">Luke Sayers</a>), recent
<a href="http://education.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1624532/LifePatterns_10YearFollowingGenY_FINAL_webversion.pdf">research</a> shows Gen Y continue to desire full-time, secure employment just like previous generations. </p>
<h2>The view from the board room</h2>
<p>Turning to the Employer Satisfaction Survey, 84% of supervisors reported overall satisfaction with the quality of graduates who worked for them. While 42% of graduates reported their skillset wasn’t relevant to their employment, 64% of their supervisors saw relevant skillsets in graduates. Similarly, 93% of supervisors believed the degrees obtained by their employees prepared them well for employment.</p>
<p>But employers felt some aspects of undergraduate qualifications prepared graduates for employment more than others.</p>
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<p>Domain specific knowledge is the most valuable skill qualifications offer employers. Conversely, it appears employers don’t see qualifications as offering much in the way of technical, adaptive, or foundational skills.</p>
<p>Interestingly, none of the elite <a href="https://go8.edu.au/">Group of 8</a> universities placed in the top five for employer satisfaction. This honour went to James Cook University, University of Notre Dame, University of the Sunshine Coast, Bond University and the University of Wollongong. Only the University of Queensland and the University of Melbourne made it into the top ten.</p>
<p>It appears prestige is not rated as highly by employers as technical skillsets and domain specific knowledge.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>While there are certainly areas universities could improve to increase employer satisfaction, employers seem happy with the quality of graduates. The problem doesn’t appear to be with the relevance of qualifications and skillsets to employment, but rather with the scarcity of employment. </p>
<p>So, if <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-29/university-students-dropping-out-in-record-numbers/9203636">young people are learning</a>, whose responsibility is it to make sure they’re earning?</p>
<p>More and <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-many-graduates-not-enough-jobs-universities-profits-and-clinical-need-13482">more students are graduating every year</a>, but businesses and the public service aren’t providing enough graduate level opportunities. </p>
<p>Given the commitment Education Minister Simon Birmingham has shown to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/education-minister-says-uni-cuts-wont-hit-fees-funding/news-story/bcbbd18993586f4ce253b9c1ffe7092f">cutting university funding</a>, it seems universities will have to do more with less. If this <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r5869">legislation</a> comes into effect, the government could reinvest those savings in graduate programs that offer more technical training and vocational experience. </p>
<p>Particularly given the lack of opportunities offered to science and maths graduates, an <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-do-something-about-jobs-for-young-people-in-a-world-of-automation-68342">increase in funding</a> to the CSIRO and research institutes could provide for greater utilisation of STEM graduates.</p>
<p>Ultimately, we need to learn from both reports and design policy that gives young people a chance to start earning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90104/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shirley Jackson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, the National Tertiary Education Union and the Australian Labor Party.</span></em></p>The government claims university degrees are failing businesses, but analysis of the latest graduate outcome and employer satisfaction surveys tells us the problem is with underemployment.Shirley Jackson, PhD Candidate in Political Economy, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/858242017-10-19T19:00:36Z2017-10-19T19:00:36ZVital Signs: economics can’t explain why unemployment and inflation are both low<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190938/original/file-20171019-32355-t99s6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Image sourced from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.</em></p>
<p><em>This week: an explanation of why central banks can’t deal with simultaneous low unemployment and inflation.</em></p>
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<p>The financial data this week were largely centred on inflation in Australia and China, and what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) thought about those things at their last board meeting.</p>
<p>This gives us the chance to focus on what is the most important issue in macroeconomics at the moment, and will govern the behaviour of the RBA, the US Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank in coming years.</p>
<p>A key question in thinking about how central banks should set interest rates is the relationship between economic output and inflation. Too much inflation is bad, as is too little, so policymakers want to balance stable inflation with as much output (GDP growth, employment, etc) as possible.</p>
<p>But how to do this?</p>
<p>A tantalising candidate answer to this was offered by New Zealand economist A.W.H. Phillips. Looking at data in the United Kingdom from 1861 to 1957, he noted that when unemployment was high, wages increased slowly; when unemployment was low, wages rose rather quickly.</p>
<p>If this were a stable, predictable, relationship, this would be great news for policymakers. Pick where you want to position yourself on the inflation-output tradeoff and <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/phillipscurve.asp">the Phillips Curve</a> tells you the answer.</p>
<p>Alas, it has long been know that this relationship is rather less clear than in Phillips’s data.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rationaltheoryofexpectations.asp">rational-expectations</a> revolution, ushered in by <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1995/lucas-bio.html">Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas</a>, showed that a relationship like the Phillips Curve would depend on what people thought policymakers were going to do. In other words, you can’t rely on historical data when making policy, if those policies affect the data (as they always do). This is known as the “Lucas Critique”. And it’s right.</p>
<p>The thing is that policymakers need to make decisions, now. And being “right” is all well and good, but being practical is pretty important, too.</p>
<p>So for a long time, policymakers fudged things by using what they called the “expectations-augmented Phillips Curve”. Basically a hack.</p>
<p>But now, even that has broken down. Neither the Fed nor the RBA can understand within any framework how it can be that both inflation and unemployment are so low. Take the US: 4.2% unemployment and 1.4% inflation. It should be, according to basic economic theory, that when workers are so scarce one has to pay them more to work, so inflation goes up.</p>
<p>But not according to the data. The big and important question is: why not?</p>
<p>The cheap answer is that we are not measuring things correctly. For example, there is a lot of “underemployment” so that 4.2% isn’t really right – these folks aren’t working all the hours they want.</p>
<p>There is probably some truth in that, but it’s hard to believe there has been a dramatic shift in the proportion of those underemployed in the last decade. Even if it is true, it still begs the question: why?</p>
<p>I think it’s safe to say that not only does nobody know for sure, nobody has a good conjecture. Or, to quote the celebrated US baseball player Yogi Berra when a high-school teacher asked him: “don’t you know anything?”, Berra replied “I don’t even suspect anything”.</p>
<p>A wild guess is that it’s not mismeasurement, but technology.</p>
<p>A lot of employment relationships are now determined through online matching. There are fewer intermediaries – including unions. That has diminished the bargaining power of most workers, limiting their ability to extract higher wages when labour-market conditions are tighter.</p>
<p>In addition to this, central banks like the Fed and the RBA have now established a strong reputation for being tough on inflation. That has taken time to take hold, so it is reasonable to think that if there was an expectations-augmented Phillips Curve it would have changed over time – perhaps getting to where we are now.</p>
<p>The real test, of course, will be if central banks abandon inflation targeting in favour of more output-focused policies. That might well be the right thing to do. But I, for one, would be surprised if the relationship between unemployment and inflation didn’t change as a result of that.</p>
<p>Or to put it a different way: Lucas was right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden is an ARC Future Fellow.</span></em></p>The economic models we used in the past haven’t adjusted for the realities of today, like diminished union power and underemployment.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839652017-09-21T19:41:29Z2017-09-21T19:41:29ZThis is what the lives of Big Issue sellers tell us about working and being homeless<p>The “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/12/crisis-measures-wont-solve-homelessness-australian-governments-warned">homelessness crisis</a>”, particularly in <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/citys-rough-sleepers-more-common-in-the-suburbs--and-just-tip-of-the-iceberg-20170913-gygu3n.html">Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/29/second-sydney-homeless-camp-dismantled-by-nsw-government">Sydney</a>, has attracted renewed attention in recent months. While there are higher rates of unemployment for people who are homeless, many are <a href="http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/2202865/Scutella_et_al_Journeys_Home_Research_Report_W6.pdf">working and homeless</a>. </p>
<p>For the past two decades, the growing numbers of Big Issue sellers on city streets across Australia have perhaps been the most visible and public of the “working homeless”. </p>
<p>While The Big Issue is based on the idea of “<a href="https://www.thebigissue.org.au/support-the-big-issue/donate/">a hand up, not a hand out</a>”, little research has been carried out on its impact and sellers’ experiences. <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137594822">My research findings</a> reveals the long-lasting effects of inequality and poverty and the impact of <a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/349417/lives_on_hold.pdf">precarious employment and working conditions</a>. </p>
<p>There is a need for more co-ordinated and comprehensive policy responses to – and resources for – homelessness, entrenched disadvantaged and long-term unemployment.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/supportive-housing-is-cheaper-than-chronic-homelessness-67539">Supportive housing is cheaper than chronic homelessness</a></em></p>
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<h2>Australia’s first social enterprise</h2>
<p>The Big Issue – a homeless street press publication – was launched in 1991 in London and in 1996 in Melbourne. Premised on the importance of creating work for those who are homeless and long-term unemployed, its motto is “<a href="https://www.bigissue.com/about/">working, not begging</a>”. </p>
<p>The Big Issue is part of a much larger global network of “homeless street press”, which has its historical roots in activist groups in the US. The Big Issue took the grassroots activist model and merged it with a business imperative to create arguably the first social enterprise: a business with a social purpose.</p>
<p>Social enterprises, a fast-growing sector in Australia, aim to respond to social problems with market-based business ideas and practices. </p>
<p>The Big Issue aims to be a self-sustaining business that engages sellers in “genuine” work. Sellers buy The Big Issue magazine for half the market price (at the moment A$3.50) and sell it on for full price ($7), thereby making $3.50 per sale.</p>
<p>As a model of social engagement it is incredibly popular politically. Every year, politicians and business leaders help raise the profile of the organisation by spending a few hours selling The Big Issue. </p>
<p>But what is it really like being a Big Issue seller? Does it provide a pathway out of homelessness and poverty? Do market-based solutions to homelessness and poverty work? </p>
<p>I spent some 18 months alongside 40 Melbourne sellers (and one ex-seller) to answer these questions. Most had been homeless at some point. Some were still homeless, while others had managed to secure private rentals or social housing. Most sellers remained hopeful of a pathway out of poverty, but few realised this. </p>
<h2>What do sellers say about their work?</h2>
<p><strong>Money helps, but not enough</strong></p>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly, Big Issue sellers welcomed the chance to work. Many had injuries, disabilities or other health conditions that meant more formal employment was out of reach. Others simply could not find work. </p>
<p>Being able to top up <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/newstart-not-enough-to-afford-basic-needs/8835678">meagre Centrelink payments</a> to help pay for rent, everyday basics, medical expenses, or even to save a little was welcome and in some cases life changing. </p>
<p>Sellers spoke of the dignity that working gave them – as a chance to demonstrate their commitment to working – and were grateful for the opportunity. </p>
<p>Yet, apart from a slim few, most sellers made very limited income. Some sold only two or four copies a day, thus earning no more than $14 for five to eight hours’ work. The most successful sellers scraped closer to the minimum wage, but only on the best hours of the best days. </p>
<p>The income from The Big Issue is very precarious – sellers can never be sure of what they’ll get. To make ends meet, many worked rain, hail or shine and through illness or painful medical conditions. </p>
<p><strong>Relationships: good and bad</strong></p>
<p>Sellers spoke powerfully of social relationships they made with regular customers, The Big Issue staff, and their local community. Having meaningful and positive interactions was central to the significance of their work. </p>
<p>However, sellers also spoke of the difficulty of the visible and public nature of their work. Sellers were aware people were judging them, their appearance and actions. Sellers sometimes struggled to put on a “smiley face” while managing the challenges and disadvantage of being homeless and poor. </p>
<p>At times, sellers had to manage negative interactions with the public, from sneers of “get a real job” to feeling lonely and ignored. They might just have one of the hardest sales jobs in the country. </p>
<h2>What can we learn from Big Issue sellers’ experiences?</h2>
<p>These experiences reveal the flimsy basis of the “lifters and leaners” rhetoric, which still persists in recent government welfare policy changes. </p>
<p>Punitive approaches such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/expansion-of-cashless-welfare-card-shows-shock-tactics-speak-louder-than-evidence-82585">welfare cards</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/helping-drug-users-get-back-to-work-not-random-drug-testing-should-be-our-priority-77468">drug tests</a> have little grounds in research evidence, and do much to stigmatise and blame people for society’s inequalities. </p>
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<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-history-can-challenge-the-narrative-of-blame-for-homelessness-80617">How history can challenge the narrative of blame for homelessness</a></em></p>
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<p>Sellers’ experiences certainly do not support the presumption of “work-shy” benefit dependency. Many work five, sometimes seven, days a week in spite of their difficulties.</p>
<p>Sellers recounted multiple experiences of inequality. These range from waiting years for public housing and being moved on when homeless, to struggling to manage family and medical budgets on Centrelink payments and feeling dismissed by society as not contributing. </p>
<p>Their experiences offer a powerful insight into the everyday challenges of living in poverty and long-term unemployment in Australia. The effects of stigmatisation, social exclusion and disenfranchisement are powerful. </p>
<p>While homelessness is a complex phenomenon, its recent <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/national-obscenity-still-a-blight--homelessness-continues-to-increase-20170411-gviegb.html">growth</a> in Australia cannot be disassociated from broader social inequalities and poverty. This includes recent <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features20Sep+2011#2">rises in long-term unemployment</a>, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Media%20Release1Aug%202017?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=Aug%202017&num=&view=">underemployment</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-a-casual-job-are-now-outweighing-any-pay-benefits-82207">precarious working conditions</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861">need for more affordable housing</a>. </p>
<p>My research indicates that being a Big Issue seller may provide avenues for meaningful work and social interactions, but does not offer secure pathways out of poverty and homelessness or into waged work. Market-based business initiatives are not an effective replacement for comprehensive government policy when it comes to structural inequality. </p>
<p>The experiences of Big Issue sellers tell us there is an urgent need to address inequality, unemployment and homelessness in Australia. A significant part of this is tackling the unequal and precarious labour market. Current policy responses to are not enough, and many serve to deflect the structural basis of poverty. </p>
<p>As a starting point, government can do much more through resourcing social and public housing, women’s refuges and homeless services and by increasing the Disability Support Pension and Newstart Allowance, which has <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-it-true-australias-unemployment-payment-level-hasnt-increased-in-over-20-years-59250">not increased in real terms in 20 over years</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond this, there is a need to address the lack of opportunity for meaningful social engagement, dignity and work for those excluded from formal employment.</p>
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<p><em>Jessica Gerrard is author of <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137594822">Precarious Enterprise on the Margins</a>: Work, Poverty and Homelessness in the City.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Gerrard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Big Issue sellers get social contact and dignity out of their work, but it’s not a secure pathway out of poverty and homelessness. Social enterprises enable small steps; governments can do much more.Jessica Gerrard, Senior Lecturer in Education, Equity and Politics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/805362017-07-10T03:44:55Z2017-07-10T03:44:55ZWhat we miss when we focus on the gender wage gap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177457/original/file-20170710-20299-w1do4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beyond the gender wage gap there is a problem of persistent underemployment.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The gender pay gap currently <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/80653_2015-16-gender-equality-scorecard.pdf">stands at 23%</a> in Australia, but this statistic alone does not capture the full problem. If you don’t have a job, the opportunity to work enough hours, or good working conditions, then wage parity is a secondary issue. </p>
<p>The latest data show <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4125.0August%202016?OpenDocument">9.4% of the female workforce</a> had insufficient hours of work, compared to just 5.7% of the male workforce.</p>
<p>Around 400,000 women of working age are unemployed in Australia and <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/Stats_at_a_Glance.pdf">71.6% of all part-time employees</a> are women.</p>
<p>And since women of all working ages in Australia <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/Stats%20at%20a%20Glance%20FEB2017.pdf">have attained higher qualifications than men</a>, we are not maximising the potential of our workforce. There is now <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1310.pdf">plenty</a> of <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/the-economic-benefits-of-gender-parity">research</a> showing that fully utilising the female workforce leads to higher economic growth.</p>
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<p>According to the <a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/349417/lives_on_hold.pdf">Independent Inquiry into Insecure Work</a>, there has been a significant increase in insecure work over the past 30 years. Insecure work includes working conditions with unpredictable pay, inferior rights and entitlements, limited or no access to paid leave, irregular or unpredictable working hours, and uncertainty over the length of a job.</p>
<p>And as women make up the majority of both <a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/349417/lives_on_hold.pdf">casual</a> and <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/Stats_at_a_Glance.pdf">part-time</a> workers, insecure work disproportionately affects women. </p>
<p>As we have seen in both <a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/349493/cpsu-csa-wa.pdf">the public sector</a> and in <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13583883.2013.783617?src=recsys">higher education</a>, many women are forced into part-time work because organisations are trying to reduce costs. Budget cuts in government agencies led to caps on full-time and permanent positions. Hiring on casual or fixed-term contracts makes it easier for the public sector to cut back and react to government restructuring. </p>
<p>The Australian higher education sector <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13583883.2013.783617?needAccess=true">has one of the highest rates of casual employment</a> of any industry. The increase in casual academic staff coincided with simultaneous cuts in government funding and increases in student numbers. </p>
<p>Women made up 61% of the respondents in a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13583883.2013.783617?needAccess=true">survey of casual employees in the higher education sector</a>. An inability to plan finances and the unpredictability of work were major concerns for casual employees. But the survey also revealed that there is little on-the-job training or oversight, and job opportunities mainly came about due to personal relationships. </p>
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<h2>What to do about it</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/BCEC%20WGEA%20Gender%20Pay%20Equity%20Insights%202017%20Report.pdf">Research shows</a> that more than 10% of women working part-time would like to work more hours. Those who wish to return to permanent work after childcare can find they are <a href="http://www.ianwatson.com.au/pubs/watson_bridges_traps_casualisation_jir_sept2012.pdf">trapped</a> in a cycle of casual jobs, with limited pathways to better employment.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Linda_Carli/publication/5957753_Women_and_the_labyrinth_of_leadership/links/0046351eeab13a8f9b000000.pdf">number of things</a> can be done to improve women’s outcomes in the workforce. For companies, these include having more women in executive positions, recruiting employees through agencies rather than personal networks, and making workplaces more flexible by allowing for job sharing, flextime and telecommuting etc. But we should <a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/349471/australian-council-of-social-services.pdf">also ensure</a> there is better access to leave, stronger anti-discrimination laws, as well as policies to ensure equal representation of male and females in part-time work. </p>
<p>These may reduce not only gender equity issues, but also help <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-0432.00206/full">improve overall workplace participation rates</a>.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/BCEC%20WGEA%20Gender%20Pay%20Equity%20Insights%202017%20Report.pdf">increasing insecure work</a>, ensuring balanced quotas for males and females in part-time roles may result in more work and equity for all. If part-time or flexible work is here to stay, we need to ensure it is for all. Doing so would boost economic growth and gender equality at the same time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80536/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Petrina Coventry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Focusing on the gender wage gap means we don’t address increasing insecure work. Women face both higher unemployment and underemployment rates than men.Petrina Coventry, Professor, Business School, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/771352017-05-05T06:28:50Z2017-05-05T06:28:50ZParaguay’s population is booming, but where are all the jobs?<p>In recent weeks, Paraguay <a href="https://theconversation.com/paraguay-in-flames-protests-rage-as-president-seeks-to-remove-term-limits-75765">has been shaken</a> by a fierce parliamentary debate about a bill – <a href="https://theconversation.com/seeking-to-quell-civil-unrest-paraguays-president-says-he-will-not-seek-reelection-75765">recently killed</a> off in the House of Representatives – that would have allowed presidents to be re-elected. </p>
<p>And although photographs of the Congress building in flames and the murder of a young protester by security forces <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-paraguay-allow-its-presidents-to-be-reelected-68464">drew international attention</a> and clearly demonstrated the limits of Paraguay’s democratic system, political turbulence is just the most visible aspect of the deep economic and social problems facing this South American country.</p>
<h2>Paraguay’s boom</h2>
<p>The country’s situation could, in theory, be favourable. Paraguay is in the midst of a <a href="http://paraguay.sociales.uba.ar/files/2011/07/P_Cano_2010.pdf">demographic boom</a> that is transforming the shape of its <a href="http://revistascientificas.una.py/index.php/RE/article/view/761/pdf_72">population</a>.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.dgeec.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/proyeccion%20nacional/Estimacion%20y%20proyeccion%20Nacional.pdf">official projections</a>, almost 60% of the country’s almost seven million people are between 15 and 64 years old. That means an extraordinary proportion of Paraguayans are of working age, and a relatively small segment, consisting of children and the elderly, is dependent. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, these statistical data do not imply an upsurge in productivity and economic growth; the country’s current economic structure does not have room for so many new workers. The Paraguayan government has yet to create a plan for integrating th, much less for putting in place differentiated pathways to employment for young people and vulnerable groups.</p>
<p>Without such policies, Paraguay’s demographic bump, which is projected to continue through to 2025, will have the opposite effect to creating an economic boom. It will deepen inequality and poverty, boost the informal economy and actually spur emigration.</p>
<h2>Strong growth, weak fundamentals</h2>
<p>After recovering from a deep crisis in 2012, the Paraguayan economy has actually been growing at a steady clip, with GDP rising by <a href="https://www.bcp.gov.py/cuentas-nacionales-anuales-i406">4.7% in 2014 and 5.2% in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>But structural weaknesses are apparent. The mainstays of the Paraguayan economy are commodities and hydropower, which <a href="https://www.bcp.gov.py/cuentas-nacionales-anuales-i406">accounted for 25.6% and 24.9% of its GDP, respectively, in 2015</a>. After that comes the underground economy, Paraguay’s third most important economic sector, according to one Treasury Ministry official in an interview conducted by the author in 2010. This mainly comprises smuggling activities on different scales.</p>
<p>Despite a reduction in poverty, which <a href="http://www.dgeec.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/eph2015/Presentacion%20Pobreza.pdf">dropped from 32% in 2011 to 22% in 2015</a>, Paraguay is still one of the poorest countries in Latin America. It ranks fourth in extreme poverty, after Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua, according to <a href="http://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/40972/4/S1601037_mu.pdf">a 2016 ECLAC report</a>. </p>
<p>Inequality is also widespread. Though the country’s GINI coefficient, which indicates economic inequality, has dropped <a href="http://www.dgeec.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/eph2015/Presentacion%20Pobreza.pdf">from 0.5124 to 0.4714</a>, there’s still a significant gap between rich and poor Paraguayans. According to the <a href="http://www.dgeec.gov.py/">General Statistics Surveys and Census Bureau</a> (DGEEC), the poorest 40% of Paraguayans pocket only 12.5% of the nation’s revenues, while the richest 10% earn 37.1% of all income.</p>
<p>Finally, there’s underemployment, which hovers at 19% (only 5.34% of Paraguayans are fully unemployed). Among the 3.3 million people nationwide who have jobs, 664,000 either work less than 30 hours per week “but would like to work more, and are available to do so”, according to the above-mentioned DGEEC bureau. Or they work 30-plus hours but are paid less than <a href="http://www.dgeec.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/eph-2015/Boletin%20Empleo%20EPH%202015.pdf">minimum wage</a>“.</p>
<h2>Rural exodus</h2>
<p>In rural parts of the country, these economic weaknesses are magnified. Unemployment for urban men can reach 55.12% in some areas, but it’s 64.19% in rural zones. Wages are also notoriously lower in rural areas – even bosses earn less. </p>
<p>The rural-urban economic gap is the result of large-scale agriculture steadily eating away <a href="http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/ess/documents/meetings_and_workshops/IICA_2009/ppt/ESS-ALSLAC-09-15_E_Paraguay.pdf">at small-scale farming</a> in Paraguay. And it is increasingly prioritising high-tech monoculture enterprises.</p>
<p>Today, 90% of the land belongs to just 5% of landowners.</p>
<p>Thanks to a surge in inflows of <a href="http://www.baseis.org.py/mas-agroquimicos-para-paraguay-con-la-liberacion-de-su-23cultivo-transgenico/">transgenic crops</a> since 2012, agri-business revenues have multiplied in Paraguay.</p>
<p>In late March, about a thousand farmers <a href="http://www.efe.com/efe/america/sociedad/marcha-campesina-exige-reforma-agraria-para-la-distribuir-de-tierras-en-paraguay/20000013-3222554">converged on Asunción in an annual march</a>, demanding across-the-board agrarian reform. The protesters called for debt forgiveness for small farmers and condemned the widespread concentration of rural resources. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.seer.ufms.br/index.php/AlbRHis/article/view/2156">Studies have confirmed</a> that between 1991 and 2008, when the last National Agricultural Census was conducted, the total amount of productive land in Paraguay fell by some 5.7%. The number of farms and homesteads covering less than 100 hectares has shrunk, while those between 100 and 500 hectares has risen by almost 35%, and massive plantations covering more than 500 hectares are up by almost 57%.</p>
<p>Farmers’ deepening marginalisation in the countryside has made city living more attractive.</p>
<p>Asunción, the capital, has grown steadily, from <a href="http://www.dgeec.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/Web%20Paraguay%20Total%20Pais/3%20Diagnostico%20poblacion.pdf">388,958 people in 1972</a> to 515,587 <a href="http://www.dgeec.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/anuario2012/anuario%202012.pdf">in 2012</a>. Some 37% of the nation’s population is now concentrated in the city and the surrounding Central Department area.</p>
<p>Although complete official accounting of informal settlements are not available, the National Housing Bureau, SENAVITAT, estimates that the region now has some <a href="http://www.senavitat.gov.py/minurvi-py/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2016/05/INFORME-PY-HA%CC%81BITAT-III.pdf">around 1,000 slum areas</a>.</p>
<p>Though wages are higher in the city, Paraguay’s labour market usually makes it hard for rural migrants to find jobs, so new arrivals often face underemployment, temporary joblessness or longer-term unemployment.</p>
<h2>The democratisation debate</h2>
<p>Underemployment and rural poverty are fuelling Paraguay’s current turbulent politics, highlighting a critical question that was first debated during South America’s democratic transitions in the 1980s: can political democracy truly exist in countries that haven’t also attained economic and social democracy?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41479656?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Some thinkers</a> claim that economics and politics are independent dimensions, and that the social rights can be enshrined after democracy is established. </p>
<p>More critical – <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Transitions-Authoritarian-Rule-Conclusions-Democracies/dp/1421410133">or less optimistic – political scientists</a> contend that, to the contrary, <a href="http://www.redalyc.org/pdf/960/96016546007.pdf">there can be no real democracy</a> if it’s not accompanied by the steady spread of social and economic equality.</p>
<p>For Paraguay, the latter hypothesis has won out. </p>
<p>Paraguayan democracy is so lacking in social components that it has become a shrunken version of government. It consists almost exclusively to ensure that institutions function, elections are held regularly and transparently, ballot-box outcomes are accepted and, above all, that the population accepts the nation’s entrenched economic structure.</p>
<p>This is not really democracy. </p>
<p>What’s more, a steady stream of scandals has revealed widespread <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/judiciales-y-policiales/echan-a-comisarios-por-fraude-en-la-academia-y-el-colegio-de-policia-1567776.html">fraud</a> and <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/paraguay-los-ultimos-percepcion-corrupcion-n1058062.html">corruption</a>, and there are deep-rooted processes of political and economic exclusion.</p>
<p>No matter who runs in the 2018 election, it will be merely a fiction of democracy – a mechanism that serves to continue the systematic uprooting of farm families for the benefit of agribusiness and bolstering an urban economy that pushes workers into underemployment or into the informal sector.</p>
<p>Until social justice, equality and rights are brought into politics, Paraguay’s turbulence can be expected to continue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magdalena López receives funding from Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas-CONICET.</span></em></p>Too many able-bodied Paraguayans are underemployed, fuelling frustration and entrenching inequality.Magdalena López, Researcher at CONICET. Coordinator of the Group of Social Studies on Paraguay at the Institute of Latin American and Caribbean Research, Universidad de Buenos AiresLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/757772017-04-20T02:46:53Z2017-04-20T02:46:53ZBudget explainer: if you want to know about the economy, look past the budget forecasts<p>When the federal government releases its annual budget it provides an economic outlook that includes forecasts and key indicators of the state of the economy. But we should be critical of some of these numbers. Many either don’t tell the entire story or provide more of an indication of where we have been rather than where we are heading.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate is a <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2016-17/content/bp1/download/bp1.pdf">key figure in the federal budget</a>, but it doesn’t capture the full extent of slack in the labour force. The rate of growth of Gross domestic product (GDP) is <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2016-17/content/bp1/download/bp1.pdf">another important figure</a>, but it also doesn’t really say much about the state of the economy.</p>
<p>Here are some things behind these broad indicators that you would need to get a fuller picture of the economy.</p>
<h2>The labour force</h2>
<p>According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate is currently <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/pdf/06-economic-outlook.pdf">5.9%</a>. This <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/0/FBE517ECA9B07F63CA257D0E001AC7D4?OpenDocument">means</a> that 5.9% of people in the labour force did not work for more than one hour in the week the survey was conducted. </p>
<p>The labour force consists of those older than 15 who actively looked for work in the four weeks prior to the survey, were available to work during the survey week, or were waiting to start a new job and could have worked sooner if the job had been available.</p>
<p>The last budget <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2016-17/content/bp1/download/bp1.pdf">forecast</a> that the unemployment rate would remain steady over the next four years.</p>
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<p>There is a problem with this very tight definition of unemployment. It excludes part-time workers who would like more hours of work. This group are called <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/pdf/box-b-underemployment-and-labour-market-spare-capacity.pdf">underemployed</a> workers. The underemployment rate is currently <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Feb%202017?OpenDocument">8.8%</a> of the labour force. Underemployment isn’t an indicator highlighted in the budget documents. </p>
<p>Altogether, 14.7% (the 5.9% unemployed plus the 8.8% underemployed) of the labour force is underutilised. This is arguably a more accurate picture of the labour market than the unemployment rate. </p>
<p>What makes this distinction even more important is that the trends are diverging. Since 2014 the underemployment rate has been trending up while the unemployment rate has been trending down. This difference is in part explained by the <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/pdf/box-b-underemployment-and-labour-market-spare-capacity.pdf">rise in the share of part-time workers</a> working fewer hours than they would have liked, which pushes unemployment down but underemployment up.</p>
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<p>On top of this, the unemployment rate tells us where the economy has been more accurately than where it is going – it is a lagging indicator. In Australia, changes in employment growth lag changes in output of goods and services <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/featurearticlesbytitle/09CA2BE34A12A670CA2570EE00193A49?OpenDocument">by six to nine months</a>. </p>
<p>So by itself at least, the unemployment rate also doesn’t tell us much about the state of the labour market or where it is heading.</p>
<h2>Economic growth</h2>
<p>Australia is <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/pdf/06-economic-outlook.pdf">currently growing at 2%</a> per annum and this is forecast to increase to 3% by the end of this year. </p>
<p>But as with the unemployment rate, there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-and-why-we-are-moving-beyond-gdp-as-a-measure-of-human-progress-68672">shortcoming in GDP growth as a measure of economic progress</a> and the importance of growth to our national living standards is overplayed. The prices of our commodity exports have a bigger impact on fluctuations in our living standards than growth in GDP.</p>
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<p>The prices of our commodity exports <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/pdf/06-economic-outlook.pdf">doubled</a> during the mining boom from early 2000’s to 2010, driving up the nation’s income, boosting the stock market and government’s revenue. Commodity prices have since <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/commodity-prices/2017/icp-0317.html">fallen substantially</a>. These fluctuations swamp any effect of changes in growth on our living standards – and the fluctuations are entirely out of our hands.</p>
<p>We need to look behind the growth number at the drivers of GDP to get a better picture of the state of the economy, as well as where it is headed.</p>
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<p>Consumption activity is one such driver and has a range of indicators. One of them is retail turnover, which <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8501.0">has recently been flat</a> in real terms (adjusted for inflation). Retail turnover is another measure not found in the budget documents, but shows revenue from a survey of large and small businesses and gives an idea of the demand in the economy. </p>
<p>Another good indicator is sales of new motor vehicles, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9314.0">which have also been flat</a> recently. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-and-how-do-we-measure-what-consumers-feel-68804">Consumer confidence</a> is also a good indicator of consumption. This attempts to measure optimism (or pessimism) about the state of the economy. Depending on which indicator you consult, consumer confidence has either <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/consumer-confidence/roy-morgan-business-confidence">declined</a> or <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/consumer-confidence">increased</a> slightly over the past few months.</p>
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<p>As consumer confidence relates to consumption, business confidence is a good leading indicator of investment in the economy. This is often <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2009/dec/pdf/bu-1209-3.pdf">driven by</a> expectations about future profitability, which is in turn driven by expectations of demand by households, firms and foreign buyers. </p>
<p>There are a few business confidence indicators to choose from, and they have been <a href="http://business.nab.com.au/nab-monthly-business-survey-december-2016-2-22311/">steady</a> in recent months, indicating that investment will be flat in the coming three to six months. </p>
<p>Finally, export expenditure is driven by both growth in our major trading partners and Australia’s competitiveness, the latter being determined by our costs of production and the Australian dollar. Growth of our trading partners has <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/pdf/statement-on-monetary-policy-2017-02.pdf">picked up</a> in recent months, particularly in China, and is around 4% on average.</p>
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<p>Flat investment and government expenditure means that the predicted 3% GDP growth would have to come from consumption and export expenditure. Consumption currently is flat and exports tend to be volatile and uncertain. So take this number with a grain of salt.</p>
<p>In the end, if you are looking for a picture of the economy, the data in the federal budget is not much help. The data behind the forecasts of broad macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and unemployment are too aggregated to be of much use as indicators of future interest rates, household living standards or prospects for employment and growth in particular industry sectors.</p>
<p>When the budget is released, place the forecasts in the context of the other indicators we have about the economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Guest has previously received funding from the ARC but has no current ARC projects.</span></em></p>The budget is full of forecasts about where the economy is going, but other indicators are often more helpful.Ross Guest, Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/747892017-04-10T05:10:24Z2017-04-10T05:10:24ZInside the world’s largest higher education boom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161684/original/image-20170320-9144-9rwite.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Graduation day</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A record-breaking <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-12/01/content_27533725.htm">8m students</a> will graduate from Chinese universities in 2017. This figure is nearly ten times higher than it was in 1997 and is more than double the number of students who will graduate this year in the US.</p>
<p>Just two decades ago, higher education in China was a rare privilege enjoyed by a small, urban elite. But everything changed in 1999, when the government launched a program to massively expand university attendance. In that year alone university admissions increased by <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexeh.htm">nearly 50%</a> and this average annual growth rate persisted for the next 15 years, creating the largest influx of university educated workers into the labour market in history. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161615/original/image-20170320-9136-grqc8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161615/original/image-20170320-9136-grqc8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161615/original/image-20170320-9136-grqc8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161615/original/image-20170320-9136-grqc8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161615/original/image-20170320-9136-grqc8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161615/original/image-20170320-9136-grqc8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161615/original/image-20170320-9136-grqc8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annual enrolment of new students in higher education institutions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Growth in the number of <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2015/indexeh.htm">engineering students</a> has been particularly explosive as part of the government’s push to develop a technical workforce which can drive innovation. But overall student numbers have increased in all subjects – even in the humanities and social sciences. New universities have sprung up and student enrolment numbers have rocketed. The second most popular subject major is in fact <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2015/indexeh.htm">literature – and the fastest growing is law</a>.</p>
<h2>Underemployment</h2>
<p>In 2013, Chinese citizens started blogging about the “<a href="http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2013-05-30/174927268909.shtml">hardest job hunting season in history</a>” – and each year it seems to get harder for Chinese graduates. In 2017 there will be 1m more new graduates than there were in 2013. And yet, the graduate unemployment rate has remained relatively stable – according to <a href="http://www.mycos.com.cn/index.php/Index/service_info/nav/2/i/4">MyCOS Research Institute</a>, only 8% of students who graduated in 2015 were unemployed six months after graduating.</p>
<p>But if you delve a little deeper it’s clear that unemployment rates mask the more subtle issue of “underemployment”. While most graduates eventually find work, too many end up in part-time, low-paid jobs. </p>
<p>Six months after graduating, one in four Chinese university students have a salary that is below the average <a href="http://www.clb.org.hk/content/wages-and-employment">salary of a migrant worker</a>, according to MyCOS data.
History, law and literature have some of the lowest starting salaries, and also the lowest employment rates. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161644/original/image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161644/original/image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161644/original/image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161644/original/image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161644/original/image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161644/original/image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161644/original/image-20170320-9129-3km3bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graduation day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sandyxuxinxi/4626904438/in/photolist-83S6us-eFjdRr-3ype1j-q2xF9s-Mm5MA-eFnUkc-3yps1j-pMiDHC-89U88i-89Xovw-t6o8B1-cEsUbC-pMgYD4-eFm9vt-nJtiQn-ssQby-84QyYB-q2xF2o-2p81X1-eChMNS-vsC14r-k5Gty-65mVbU-eChLSN-Nf9b9-4eNtXE-4ui3M-4eNnru-4eJuCg-sr95S4-4uhU1-ATRCw-yDDfub-6sucKV-u8tb5D-t6wqNR-tkCWMj-t6vsi6-bRjkQ8-ckhh7q-DNpwVS-f9erBF-2TLE6k-s4Kf2s-RHTtdQ-7C1Sz9-2TRbjA-6KuDQ8-eX3xY5-6JHmCB">Xinxi Xu/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And for students who choose arts and humanities subjects in high school, the average starting salary after university is lower than that of their classmates who didn’t go to university, according to <a href="https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/series/243">survey data</a>. Of the 50 most common graduate occupations, 30% are low-skilled and don’t require a degree. For these students, low starting salaries and limited career progression call into question the value of their degree. </p>
<p>The high cost of living, particularly in big cities, has also forced millions of graduates into “<a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2009/11/05/chinas-graduates-an-ants-life/">ant tribes</a>” of urban workers living in squalid conditions – often in basements – working long hours in low-paid jobs.</p>
<h2>The big divide</h2>
<p>But for a different group of graduates, the contrast is striking. Engineering, economics and science majors in China all enjoy high starting salaries and the top employment rates. These graduates fill the highest-paid entry positions in the most attractive employment sectors of IT, operations, real estate and finance. Chinese tech graduates do particularly well. In 2015 the <a href="http://www.mycos.com.cn/index.php/Index/service_info/nav/2/i/4">top five highest paying graduate jobs</a> were all IT related. </p>
<p>The government’s “<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/made-china-2025">Made in China 2025</a>” strategy to become a global high-tech leader in industries such as advanced IT and robotics has created plenty of opportunities for graduates in these fields. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161616/original/image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161616/original/image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161616/original/image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161616/original/image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161616/original/image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161616/original/image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161616/original/image-20170320-9124-3fp9tu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top highest paying graduate jobs.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not only are the starting salaries high, but long-term earnings follow a starkly different trajectory. Three years after graduating, <a href="http://www.mycos.com.cn/index.php/Index/service_info/nav/2/i/4">the top 15%</a> of engineering, economics and science graduates earn more than double the median salary for other graduates. </p>
<h2>Wrong types of skills</h2>
<p>Despite the rapid increase in the number of university graduates, <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/assessing-china-s-skills-gap-and-inequalities-in-education_5js1j1805czs-en?crawler=true">Chinese companies complain</a> of not being able to find the high-skilled graduates they need. The main deficit is in so-called “soft skills” such as strong communication, analytical and managerial skills. According to <a href="http://mckinseyonsociety.com/downloads/reports/Education/china-skills-gap.pdf">research by McKinsey</a>, there is a short supply of graduates with these assets.</p>
<p>Chinese universities have a great track record of teaching students “hard skills”, but the test-focused education system has placed little emphasis on the development of anything else. So while graduates from technical or quantitative majors find employment because they have the necessary “hard skills”, graduates from less technical majors are hampered by their lack of both types of skills. </p>
<h2>Two types of graduates</h2>
<p>It seems then that the problem is not the rising number of students attending university, but that there is a mismatch between the skill composition of graduates and the skills employers need. </p>
<p>Demand for graduates with technical or quantitative skills has in fact risen faster than supply, resulting in attractive employment opportunities for graduates with these skills. </p>
<p>But for the rest, their education leaves them badly prepared for the jobs that are available. Until this changes, the polarisation in the graduate job market is likely to continue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Stapleton receives funding from the ESRC.</span></em></p>What happens to China’s millions of university graduates.Katherine Stapleton, PhD student, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/733412017-02-22T19:19:00Z2017-02-22T19:19:00ZPush for longer hours makes headlines, but more Australians want to work less<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157833/original/image-20170222-1364-gf3vud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite the prominence given to underemployment, 'overemployment' is more pervasive in Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian Tax Office (ATO) <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-20/ato-admit-working-hours-are-below-community-standards/8284384">abandoned plans</a> requiring its staff to work 37.5 hours per week following an employee backlash. This would have been an increase of 45 minutes per week, or nine minutes per day, over what’s currently required.</p>
<p>At face value the notion that ATO workers in full-time positions should be expected to work a minimum of 37.5 hours per week seems entirely reasonable. But arguably a more interesting question is just how close this award standard is to the hours Australian workers actually devote to paid employment.</p>
<h2>What’s the norm?</h2>
<p>While a 37.5-hour work week is the norm in industry awards and agreements, most employed Australians typically work shorter or longer hours. Only a minority of Australians actually report working 37.5 hours per week. This is reflected in data the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collects from households as part of its monthly <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/ABS@Archive.nsf/log?openagent&6291010.xls&6291.0.55.001&Time%20Series%20Spreadsheet&AA3CDBE574CC1B32CA2580B1001ED44E&0&Dec%202016&24.01.2017&Latest">Labour Force Survey</a>.</p>
<p>In the public service a 36.75-hour work week, as currently applies to ATO staff, is relatively unusual – 37.5 hours is more common.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&63060do014_201605.xls&6306.0&Data%20Cubes&A7D63B1F6A5C2AFDCA2580AC001377CA&0&May%202016&19.01.2017&Latest">Data collected</a> from employers by the ABS indicate that, in May 2016, the average weekly hours of ordinary-time work (that is, not including overtime) for full-time non-managerial adult employees on award rates of pay was 37.4 hours.</p>
<p>This number rises to 37.8 hours for those on enterprise agreements, and to 38.5 for those whose pay is determined by individual agreements.</p>
<h2>There’s wide diversity</h2>
<p>A great many Australians are employed in part-time jobs. <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.001Dec%202016?OpenDocument">According to the ABS</a>, about 19% of men and 48% of women in paid employment report usually working less than 35 hours per week.</p>
<p>At the other end of the spectrum, a considerable proportion work long hours each week. Around 30% of employed men and 11% of employed women report usual working hours of 45 or more each week.</p>
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<p>The available evidence also suggests this diversity in working hours is more marked in Australia than in any other industrial nation. <a href="http://stats.oecd.org/">OECD data</a> suggests that the part-time employment share in Australia in 2015 was the third-highest among the 34 OECD member countries. </p>
<p>And, after adjusting for differences in definitions – in other countries part-time employment is based on hours worked in the main job, whereas in Australia it is based on hours worked in all jobs – Australia would almost certainly move to second, exceeded only by the Netherlands. </p>
<p>At the same time, Australia ranks ninth among OECD nations for its share of long-hours workers. This is defined as employees reporting that they usually work more than 50 hours each week.</p>
<h2>How many hours do Australians want to work?</h2>
<p>The long-term trend in average working hours, however, is downwards. While this trend was halted, if not reversed, in the 1980s and 1990s, the downward path was resumed in the 2000s. Mean usual weekly hours of work <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.001Dec%202016?OpenDocument">fell from</a> 36.9 in 2002 to 35.7 in 2016.</p>
<p>This has been driven by both continued growth in the share of part-time employment and a decline in the share of people working long hours. Very little if any of this decrease is due to any decline in agreed full-time ordinary hours of work.</p>
<p>Another important feature of working time is the extent to which hours worked are consistent with worker preferences. In recent years, for example, underemployment has increased. Underemployed workers, as measured by the ABS, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.NSF/log?openagent&6202022.xls&6202.0&Time%20Series%20Spreadsheet&6A4F6FC040B95DE3CA2580C80013FEB2&0&Jan%202017&16.02.2017&Latest">now represent</a> about 9% of all employed workers, compared to less than 3% in the late 1970s.</p>
<p>Similarly, concerns have long been expressed about the potential adverse consequences of the encroachment of work time on family and personal time.</p>
<p>According to data collected in 2015 in the <a href="http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/hilda/default.html">HILDA Survey</a>, about 16% of all employed persons would prefer to work more hours each week and about 26% would prefer to work fewer hours. As expected, the proportion seeking more hours is highest among the part-time employed (about 33%), while the proportion seeking fewer hours is highest among long-hours workers (about 50% of those reporting working 45 hours or more per week). </p>
<p>Thus, despite the prominence given to underemployment, “overemployment” is more pervasive in Australia.</p>
<p>But not all of those seeking more hours desire full-time work, nor do all of those seeking fewer hours desire a job offering that would traditionally be described as standard hours – a 35-to-40-hour work week. </p>
<p>The proportion of the employed workforce that prefers different working hours (either more or less) in the range of 35 to 40 is just 15%. </p>
<p>While the working hours of many Australians are not in line with their preferences, the proportion of workers who both prefer more or less hours and prefer a standard work week is not large. The Australian labour market thus appears to do a relatively good job of accommodating the preferences of the majority of workers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73341/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Wooden is Director of the HILDA Survey, which is funded by the Australian Government of Social Services. He is also a recipient of Australian Research Council funding. </span></em></p>Australia’s labour market does a relatively good job of accommodating the preferences of the majority of workers. But that’s not to say there’s no-one who wouldn’t prefer to work more – or less.Mark Wooden, Professorial Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/603142016-06-19T20:10:55Z2016-06-19T20:10:55ZMajor parties are behind the times – and strangely silent – on social policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126672/original/image-20160615-22398-59aa8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many Australians who rely on welfare support have been let down by the major parties.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As we enter the business end of the election campaign, with pre-polling underway, there is a profound lack of any social welfare policies on offer from either major party. The Greens have now put up proposals, mainly to raise the levels of some of the basic welfare payments in line with wide recommendations, including from the <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/bca-steps-up-newstart-campaign-20130611-jhpfu">Business Council of Australia</a>.</p>
<p>The bipartisan silence suggests that neither Labor nor the Coalition are keen to engage in this area, despite their frequent promises of fairness and trust. Their focus on working families or agile entrepreneurs fails to tackle the needs of those who are not contributing paid work hours. </p>
<p>There are signs of seriously disengaged voters, both here and overseas. For example, voters in the US and EU are rejecting major centrist parties because they are concerned about possible market failures. Even the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42986.0">International Monetary Fund</a> is suggesting the need to tackle increasing inequalities. </p>
<p>As anxieties about growth and the damaging limits of trickle-down wealth theories are becoming more apparent, it becomes more urgent that financial poverty be addressed. The erosion of social cohesion around the world is creating more populism and rejection of centrist parties, which happened most alarmingly in the 1930s.</p>
<p>In Australia, neither major party seems willing to engage with positive changes to welfare policy and income support, assuming instead that these will be fixed by more jobs and growth. Electorally, this is also shortsighted, as more than one-third of the more than 15 million registered voters are not in the paid workforce. </p>
<p>Many of these voters depend on full- or part-income support payments for a range of reasons: they care for others, there are no jobs for them, or they are excluded by the prejudices of others. Despite these barriers, many also meet a wide range of unpaid needs and support community well-being. </p>
<p>Both major parties, when in power this century, have failed to tackle the increasing gap between the jobs available and the number of job seekers. Now, in what is deemed to be full employment, there are still far more job seekers than jobs: 165,600 <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6354.0">listed vacancies</a> earlier this year were followed by the listing of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">726,600 active job seekers</a>.</p>
<p>We need to add to these numbers estimates of perhaps more than a million to account for the “discouraged workers”, many of whom have been on benefits for more than 12 months. These are people that employers won’t employ, the single parents whose incomes Labor reduced in 2011, who still can’t fit together work and care.</p>
<p>This number also includes the extra Newstart recipients, formerly deemed disabled, now dealing with personal limits and employer discrimination.</p>
<p>Both major parties only specifically address the voters who are not substantially in the paid workforce. They exhort them to start or increase their paid activities so they are not deemed to be drains on public funds. This creates long-term damage and undermines social cohesion. </p>
<p>Scaring people about welfare costs is a classic conservative tactic, overlaid with self-interest. This is despite much evidence that Australia has one of the tightest-targeted, and often inadequate, income-support systems. St Vincent de Paul, the Salvation Army and the Australian Council of Social Service are all asking for voters and parties to remember the “poor” and make sure their need are considered. </p>
<p>The Salvos’ Economic and Social Impact Survey showed how:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… children are hugely impacted by welfare inadequacies, moving house multiple times a year, moving schools and missing out on medications, dental checks and even access to the internet due to extreme poverty with some single parent families living off less than $16 a day after accommodation expenses.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So far these pleas have had little serious attention – except from the Greens. Labor has suggested another review, which delays any action and is as unlikely to create action as the <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/02_2015/dss001_14_final_report_access_2.pdf">two earlier inquiries by Patrick McClure</a>.</p>
<p>Welfare dependency is usually framed as the result of people’s sins and failure to try. But there is little doubt that they also encounter structural barriers. Many lower-level jobs are gone or going, with technology replacing workers and slowing demand for market goods. </p>
<p>These changes suggest the need to reconsider income-support policies, which is recognised in other developed societies. There have recently been <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-a-universal-basic-income-wont-solve-poverty-20160531-gp8o65.html">a number of articles</a> in <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/basic-income-to-cover-for-digital-revolution-job-loss-rejected-in-switzerland-20160605-gpc796.html">Fairfax Media</a> on overseas debates on possibilities of introducing new payment types, such as a universal income. Some EU and US trials are underway, and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2016/s4476319.htm">a recent plebiscite in Switzerland</a> showed nearly 25% of people agreed on such a payment without any formal or official support. </p>
<p>The idea has a long history, but recognition that there may not always be enough adequately paid jobs for everyone has given it renewed momentum. So, the question is how we design universal payments that offer stability and well-being while accommodating change and mobility.</p>
<p>Unfortunately there are no signs of such enlightened views from either major party – in fact, quite the opposite. The only signs of change are backwards moves that impose more controls over recipients. </p>
<p>Despite the lack of any evidence that most of those on welfare benefits are either incompetent or irresponsible, in 2007 the Coalition started trials of the <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/enablers/about-basicscard">BasicsCard</a>, which initially controlled 50% of income in some Indigenous communities. These trials were continued and extended by Labor. </p>
<p>A further “refinement” is being trialled now as the <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/families-and-children/programmes-services/welfare-conditionality/cashless-debit-card-trial-overview">Cashless Welfare Card</a>, despite none of the evaluations finding significant benefits. </p>
<p>It seems neither major party recognises the structural causes of unemployment and so cannot solve the social problems associated with it. This makes it unlikely that they will explore ideas for universal payments that could reduce the ill-effects of structural poverty and fix the structural inequity problems that create divisive societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Neither major party seems to understand the structural causes of unemployment, or how to adapt welfare policy to meet those needs.Eva Cox, Professorial Fellow, Jumbunna IHL, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/607092016-06-13T20:14:47Z2016-06-13T20:14:47ZElection FactCheck: have 50,000 full-time jobs been lost this year and are over a million people underemployed?<blockquote>
<p>On their watch… 50,000 full-time jobs have been lost this year alone. Over one million Australians are underemployed. – Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, <a href="https://www.laborherald.com.au/politics/hard-work-and-fiscal-discipline-defines-the-labor-alternative/">speech</a> to Queensland Labor Business Breakfast, June 8, 2016.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As he launched Labor’s economic plan in Brisbane, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said that under the Coalition government, 50,000 full-time jobs have been lost this year and over one million Australians are underemployed.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support Shorten’s statement, a Labor spokesperson told The Conversation that the source for 50,000 figure is from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Apr%202016?OpenDocument">Labour Force</a> data set. That data showed that between December 2015 and April 2016, full-time employment declined by 49,800 (seasonally adjusted).</p>
<p>For the statement that “over one million Australians are underemployed”, the spokesman directed The Conversation to Table 22 of the same <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Apr%202016?OpenDocument">data set</a>, which showed the number of underemployed persons totalled 1.06 million.</p>
<p>You can read the Labor spokesman’s full response <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-labor-spokesman-60860">here</a>. </p>
<h2>Have 50,000 full-time jobs have been lost this year alone?</h2>
<p>As shown by the response above, recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) labour force figures do show that there has been a decline in the number of Australians employed full-time since the start of the year. However, the size of the decrease depends on which numbers are selected. And Shorten’s speech selectively zeroed in on a period that showed a big decline. </p>
<p>The ABS collect <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Apr%202016?OpenDocument">labour force statistics</a> on a monthly basis, but adjustments are made to these estimates to take into account seasonality and previous trends. </p>
<p>Many economists would argue that the better figures to use to judge the underlying behaviour of the labour market are <em>trend estimates</em>. These estimates smooth out volatility in the seasonally adjusted estimates and are <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/6202.0Media%20Release1Dec%202015?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=Dec%202015&num=&view=">preferred by the ABS</a>. </p>
<p>This chart below shows both the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates data for full-time employees in Australia over the year from April 2015 to April 2016.</p>
<h3>Number of full-time employees – April 2015 to April 2016</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126066/original/image-20160610-10700-1a194cv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As you can see above, Shorten was right to say that between December 2015 and April 2016, there was a fall of just under 50,000 full-time employees (using the seasonally adjusted data, shown in red).</p>
<p>But looking at the trend estimates, shown in yellow, you can see that there was a smaller decrease of around 12,900 in the number of people employed full-time between December 2015 and April 2016.</p>
<p>There is also more to the story than that.</p>
<h2>Overall, full time employment has risen ‘on the Coalition’s watch’</h2>
<p>To say that “50,000 full-time jobs have been lost this year <em>alone</em>” may suggest to some that the decline is the continuation of a longer term trend. This wouldn’t be correct. </p>
<p>The 50,000 figure is the decrease in full-time employment between December 2015 and April 2016. But if you change the parameters slightly, a different picture emerges.</p>
<p>For example, there has been a net <em>increase</em> in full-time employment between April 2015 and April 2016 of around 83,800 using seasonally adjusted figures, or 89,100 using trend estimates.</p>
<p>Extend back to September 2013 when the Coalition government came to power, and we see that full-time employment up to April 2016 has increased by 166,700 on seasonally adjusted figures or 200,500 on a trend measure. </p>
<h3>Number of full-time employees – September 2013 to April 2016</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126072/original/image-20160610-2603-wnlxqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The change in the number of people employed full-time is a net figure that captures the difference between the number of people moving into full-time employment, and the number leaving full-time employment. And those who leave full-time work may move either into part-time work, unemployment, or withdraw from the labour force altogether. </p>
<p>Between December 2015 and April 2016, the number of people employed part-time grew by 75,800 using seasonally adjusted figures, or 47,600 using the trend measure. </p>
<p>An alternative labour force indicator that captures the combined effects of changes in the full-time and part-time workforce is the total monthly hours worked in all jobs. </p>
<p>This indicator shows both the number of people working and how much they work. We have seen a decline of 14.5 million hours per month since December 2015 on this measure. This represents a fall of just under 1% - albeit after an earlier period of growth.</p>
<p>A government’s influence over the labour market is constrained by what is happening in the wider global economy. Taking credit for positive jobs growth or alternatively, laying blame when the labour market pulls back, is valid only to a certain degree. Employment over time can increase because of growth in the economy and the population, rather than through specific government action.</p>
<h2>Are more than one million Australians underemployed?</h2>
<p>Shorten’s statement that underemployment currently stands at more than one million Australians is correct. According to ABS trend estimates, the total number of underemployed people is currently 1,063,800, around 58% of whom are women.</p>
<p>Underemployment is problematic as it represents lost economic potential, with people currently in part-time employment who would actually like to work more hours but are unable to do so.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-4932.12219/abstract">recent research:</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>underemployment is associated with job insecurity, increased casualisation and lower savings, and from a macroeconomic standpoint, underemployment is a signal of inefficiency in the use of skilled labour.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Examining the rate of underemployment, which compares the number of people that are underemployed to the total number of people in the labour force, is a useful assessment of the current state of underemployment in Australia. </p>
<h3>Underemployment rate - 1996 to 2016</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126015/original/image-20160610-5861-y3thc1.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Underemployment is higher now than it has been in the last 20 years, higher even than during the Global Financial Crisis. Underemployment is particularly problematic for women, with more than 10% of women working part-time saying that they would like to work more hours.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Shorten’s statement is correct – but he has cherry-picked the data.</p>
<p>His claim that 50,000 full-time jobs have been lost this year is correct if one looks at the ABS seasonally adjusted labour force figures between December 2015 and April 2016. But trend estimates are a better data source and they show a lower fall across the same period. </p>
<p>Overall, full-time employment “on the Coalition government’s watch” has grown by 166,700 on seasonally adjusted figures or 200,500 on a trend measure.</p>
<p>Whichever party is in power, job figures are usually more heavily influenced by global factors than by specific government action. </p>
<p>Shorten’s statement that there are over one million Australians underemployed in Australia is correct. The underemployment rate is the highest that it has been in the last 20 years.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>The author has done a good job on this FactCheck and points out the difficulties in comparing monthly Labour Force Survey statistics.</p>
<p>The Australian economy creates and destroys hundreds of thousands of jobs every year. The creation and destruction of jobs result from changes in consumer tastes and technological progress. It also results from the successes and failures of entrepreneurs in responding to the opportunities and challenges of shifting consumer tastes and technological change. The volume of job creation and job destruction helps explain why, during most years, the typical person who loses a job is unemployed for a relatively brief period of time.</p>
<p>When the Australian Bureau of Statistics announces each month the increases or decreases in the number of persons employed and unemployed, these are net figures. That is, the change in the number of persons employed is equal to the total number of jobs created minus the number of jobs eliminated. In <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.NSF/log?openagent&6202001.xls&6202.0&Time%20Series%20Spreadsheet&5220EF9489727EBBCA257FB7001D0359&0&Apr%202016&19.05.2016&Latest">April 2016, the trend estimate of unemployment</a> was 726,600 people or 5.7% of the labour force.</p>
<p>The shortcomings of the unemployment rate as an estimate of excess supply of labour are well known to labour economists but not widely understood by the community as a whole – or even among those regarded as informed commentators. </p>
<p>For instance, in the Labour Force Survey (from which the unemployment estimates are derived) it is only necessary to have worked for one hour in the survey week to be classified as “employed”. In order to be classified as “unemployed”, respondents must pass a number of tests regarding their readiness for work and their efforts to actively seek work. </p>
<p>“Underemployed” means people who are employed part-time but who would like to and are ready to work more hours, including full-time. It also includes those who normally work full-time but at the time of the survey, because of economic circumstances, are working part-time.</p>
<p>In April 2016 an estimated 1.063 million people, or 8.4% of the labour force, were underemployed. </p>
<p>The sum of the unemployed rate and the underemployed rate is the <em>underutilisation</em> rate, which in April 2016 was 14.2%, or about 1.8 million people.</p>
<p>So the extent of the unemployment problem is somewhere between about 700 thousand and 1.8 million people.</p>
<p>This might be interpreted as strengthening Bill Shorten’s argument but the degree of labour market underutilisation is not a new phenomenon. It has been of this order of magnitude for decades under governments of both persuasions. </p>
<p>A combination of external shocks, globalisation, structural and technical change has significantly changed the nature of demand for labour. Meanwhile, inflexibilities in the labour market have prevented adjustment to these demand changes. The month by month fluctuations in the labour market are of little significance compared to these large scale structural problems in the Australian labour market. <strong>– Phil Lewis</strong></p>
<hr>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Duncan is the Director of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Cassells is Principal Research Fellow at the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phil Lewis does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. He also has no relevant affiliations. During his career he has received funding from many private and public sector organisations including most recently the ARC, NCVER, DEEWR, the AFPC, ABLA and CPA Australia.
</span></em></p>Was Opposition Leader Bill Shorten right about full time job losses and underemployment under the Coalition government?Alan Duncan, Director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre and Bankwest Research Chair in Economic Policy, Curtin UniversityRebecca Cassells, Associate Professor, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/531042016-01-14T19:21:15Z2016-01-14T19:21:15ZYoung, educated and underemployed: are we building a nation of PhD baristas?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108101/original/image-20160113-10394-1qdivqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's not because they really like coffee.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a looming fear among <a href="https://theconversation.com/graduating-into-a-weak-job-market-why-so-many-grads-cant-find-work-45222">young people</a> in the Australian labour market that they will <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-graduating-from-university-is-no-longer-enough-to-get-a-job-36906">not find jobs</a> commensurate with their educational levels because they are <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/hilda/Bibliography/Working_Discussion_Research_Papers/2011/Quintini_Over_Qualified_or_Under_Skilled.pdf">“overqualified”</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci20-1.pdf">economics</a> suggests these <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-whacking-stick-is-not-enough-to-get-young-people-into-work-38710">apprehensions</a> are <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/features/a-phd-with-your-coffee-barista-serving-your-drink-might-be-better-educated-than-you-are-8895053.html">well-founded</a>. In 2013, <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/7/11/education/overqualified-and-underemployed-meet-australias-graduates">26% of young graduates</a> in Australia were “underutilised”.</p>
<p>Policymakers cannot take this situation lightly for, at its worst, it leads to “<a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rp/2002-03/03rp07.pdf">intergenerational inequity</a>” – a <a href="http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-1-4039-8266-7_7">breaking of the social contract</a> between two generations. It is worrying for <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1016/S0192-0812%2806%2914004-0">students</a>, <a href="https://www.empoweringparents.com/article/worried-sick-about-your-childs-future-how-to-stop-the-anxiety/">parents</a> and <a href="http://library.bsl.org.au/jspui/bitstream/1/503/1/The%20Extent%20and%20Consequences%20of%20Underemployment.pdf">broader stakeholders</a> in society in equal measure. </p>
<p>A sizeable <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/1829945?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">educational investment</a>, in <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/1831177">terms of both money and time</a>, is finding <a href="http://www.moneyunder30.com/is-student-loan-debt-worth-it">unfulfilled returns</a> in mundane work that requires none of the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225798093_Sunk_Cost_Emotion_and_Commitment_to_Education">sunk investment</a> in <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303939404579530230397152314">intellectual capital</a>. This has given rise to an idea disparagingly called “<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/the-new-normal-for-young-workers/393560/">the era of the overeducated barista</a>”.</p>
<p>The pernicious tendency towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/youth-unemployment-crisis-more-about-job-quality-45231">precarious low-quality jobs</a> for youth that offer neither <a href="http://newsroom.melbourne.edu/news/generation-y-struggling-job-security">income security</a> nor <a href="http://education.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1624532/LifePatterns_10YearFollowingGenY_FINAL_webversion.pdf">professional development</a> is growing. Cognisant of this fear, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned that, globally, an <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_212423.pdf">entire generation is being lost</a> to underemployment.</p>
<h2>Lessons from Canada</h2>
<p>Canada, a country with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-malcolm-turnbull-can-learn-from-justin-trudeaus-spending-plans-52136">similar economic</a> and demographic profile, might provide new and somewhat disconcerting lessons for us. Recent labour market analysis by the Canadian <a href="http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/files/Documents/Reports/2015/Labour%202015/Labour_Market_Assessment_2015_EN.pdf">Parliamentary Budget Office</a> (PBO), building on previous work by <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/Statcan/11-621-M/11-621-MIE2006039.pdf">Statistics Canada</a>, paints <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pbo-jobs-1.3317890">a grim picture</a> relevant to our concerns about Australian youth underemployment.</p>
<p>The PBO’s labour market <a href="http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/files/Documents/Reports/2015/Labour%202015/Labour_Market_Assessment_2015_EN.pdf">assessment</a> points to a severe mismatch among young Canadians between their level of education and the quality of jobs available to them. In fact, our northern cousin’s situation is much worse than our own, which is why it can offer a cautionary tale with several important lessons.</p>
<p>First, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pbo-jobs-1.3317890">40% of young Canadian graduates</a> are overqualified for the work they do, up from 36% barely five years ago. This points to a worrying trend that exacerbates the mismatch for graduates between their skills and opportunities. </p>
<p>In Australia, while the levels are not as bad (26% underutilisation in 2013), the trend is <a href="http://education.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1624532/LifePatterns_10YearFollowingGenY_FINAL_webversion.pdf">expected to get worse</a>. A key reason is that more than <a href="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/11/aussie-youth-overqualified-and-underemployed/">70% of entry-level jobs</a> for young Australians are at risk of automation in the future. The problem worsens with levels of education, with PhDs and masters students <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-phd-graduates-expecting-too-much-11854">even more at risk</a> of underutilisation.</p>
<p>Second, some fields are worse affected than others: business, management, law and humanities are the worst hit in Canada. We are observing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/charging-22-000-for-a-graduate-position-wont-solve-the-problem-of-law-graduate-oversupply-45158">similar problem</a> in Australia for specific fields such as <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/legal/too-many-law-graduates-and-not-enough-jobs-20151020-gkdbyx">law</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/the-venture/are-mbas-worth-the-paper-theyre-written-on-20130304-2fhon.html">business</a>.</p>
<p>Third, labour mismatches are worsening across sub-national regions. This has <a href="http://www.cjrs-rcsr.org/archives/18-3/Lipshitz.pdf">troubling consequences</a> for regional development, as <a href="http://spacing.ca/national/2014/10/08/moving-millennials-generation-changing-mobility/">young people flock</a> to prosperous pockets at the expense of the <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/how-the-maritimes-became-canadas-incredible-shrinking-region/article23554298/">needy areas</a> they are fleeing. In Australia, the differences between regions in terms of youth underemployment <a href="http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_SAFOUR">are worsening</a>.</p>
<p>Fourth, Canada and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/aug/13/is-australia-stuck-in-a-new-normal-of-low-wages-growth">Australia</a> are both struggling with <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-malcolm-turnbull-can-learn-from-justin-trudeaus-spending-plans-52136">a “new normal” of economic growth</a>. This considerably increases the difficulty of creating high-quality <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-better-education-doesnt-lead-to-a-better-job-41384">jobs commensurate</a> with an educated young workforce.</p>
<p>Although Canada’s youth underemployment rate is much worse than our own, these points of similarity should raise concerns in both countries about the futures of highly educated youth who are unable to find avenues to realise their lives’ vocations. Overqualification creates <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/underemployment-driving-excessive-anxiety-among-young-workers/article4907041/">frustration and disappointment</a>, which leads to <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/apl/62/2/237/">higher employee turnover</a>. And that visibly impacts <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Unemployment-Macroeconomic-Performance-Labour-Market/dp/0198284349">national economic productivity</a>.</p>
<p>The level of full-time youth labour participation in Australia is <a href="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/11/aussie-youth-overqualified-and-underemployed/">lower today</a> than it was a decade ago, by a frightening difference of ten percentage points.</p>
<p>Youth underemployment also has fiscal policy effects, especially in terms of the terrible consequences of students laden with high debt but low incomes. Unlike Australia, where a <a href="http://studyassist.gov.au/sites/studyassist/helppayingmyfees/hecs-help/pages/hecs-help-welcome">HECS-debt system</a> exists (although it certainly isn’t <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-09/senate-passes-legislation-requiring-expats-to-repay-hecs-debts/6925936">immune to abuse</a>), there is <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/another-day-smarter-but-deeper-in-debt/article14157421/">far less support</a> for new graduates in Canada. In the US, the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/15/the-high-economic-and-social-costs-of-student-loan-debt.html">US$1.3 trillion student debt</a> is referred to as an unmitigated “<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/11/25/are-student-loans-a-ticking-time-bomb/#2715e4857a0b2ace2a743e4d">time-bomb</a>”.</p>
<p>Oscar Wilde may have quipped that one can “never be overdressed or overeducated”, but Wilde did not live in our era of overeducated baristas. Addressing the productivity impacts, fiscal policy consequences, mental health effects and lost returns on educational investments should continue to be a core policy priority. </p>
<p>Cyclical (<a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/sep/pdf/bu-0915-4.pdf">commodity busts</a>) and structural forces (<a href="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/11/aussie-youth-overqualified-and-underemployed/">automation</a>) portend increasing overqualification rates among new graduates in Australia. But before we reach the severity of Canada’s predicament, we can <a href="https://theconversation.com/frozen-wages-insecure-jobs-struggling-youth-rising-inequality-shrinking-unions-join-the-dots-50981">address</a> the issue with <a href="http://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/evidence_based_youth_employment_strategy_needed_not_more_ad_hoc_policy_idea/">evidence-based</a> targeted approaches. </p>
<p>Policymakers suggest differing methods, but some of the more promising ones include greater <a href="https://www.atn.edu.au/siteassets/publications/atninnovateprosper.pdf">industry-education partnerships</a>, job-oriented training and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-whacking-stick-is-not-enough-to-get-young-people-into-work-38710">tax incentives</a>. We should also provide greater counselling and guidance to <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/368546/lifting_our_stem_skills_13.pdf">prospective university students</a> in choosing their fields.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53104/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Usman W. Chohan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are some sage lessons from Canada on what happens when an educated young workforce can’t find work.Usman W. Chohan, Doctoral Candidate, Policy Reform and Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.