tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/weather-357/articles
Weather – The Conversation
2024-03-20T21:24:09Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/222941
2024-03-20T21:24:09Z
2024-03-20T21:24:09Z
Water woes in southern Alberta could spell disaster for aquatic ecosystems, and the people who rely on them
<p>Freshwater will be an increasingly scarce resource as we head into spring and summer in Western Canada with implications for the livelihoods and economic prosperity of humans, and non-humans alike, in southern Alberta and the downstream Prairie provinces. </p>
<p>The Bow River — in addition to the Oldman and South-Saskatchewan sub-basins — play a vital role in Western Canada. These rivers also have <a href="https://albertawater.com/water-licences-transfers-and-allocation/">a large number of competing uses</a> including agricultural and irrigation needs, municipal uses, hydroelectric developments, industrial consumption and <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/after-the-flood">recreational and cultural uses</a> — including a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/rainbow-trout-bow-river-1.4921565">world-class sports fishery</a>. </p>
<p>The Rocky Mountains serve as Western Canada’s water towers and are the critical source of the snowpack which plays a major role in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/groundwater-recharge">groundwater recharge</a>. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020">diminishing winter snowpack</a>, combined with increasing frequencies of <a href="https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor">multi-year droughts in the Prairies</a> from below-average regional precipitation, is setting up the summer of 2024 as another year of <a href="https://www.aer.ca/regulating-development/rules-and-directives/bulletins/bulletin-2023-43">abnormally low volumes</a> of water flowing through the basin.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-report-shows-alarming-changes-in-the-entire-global-water-cycle-197535">New report shows alarming changes in the entire global water cycle</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Make no mistake, dwindling flows will have wide reaching social, environmental and economic impacts. Governments and policymakers must act quickly to avert a larger crisis.</p>
<h2>Compounding impacts</h2>
<p>In addition to impacting the water available for human use, low flows and water levels have direct and indirect impacts on the <a href="https://trivent-publishing.eu/books/engineeringandindustry/watershedandriverbasinmanagement/11.%20C.%20W.%20Koning%20et%20al..pdf">organisms that live in and rely on the aquatic ecosystem</a>. Limited water supplies raise serious concerns about the <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/commentary/doc/2006CanLIIDocs562#!fragment/zoupio-_Toc2Page1-Page10/BQCwhgziBcwMYgK4DsDWszIQewE4BUBTADwBdoAvbRABwEtsBaAfX2zgCYAFMAc0ICMjHvwEAGAJQAaZNlKEIARUSFcAT2gByTVIiEwuBMtUbtu-YZABlPKQBCGgEoBRADLOAagEEAcgGFnKVIwACNoUnYJCSA">long-term impacts on our aquatic ecosystems</a>.</p>
<p>Complicating matters is the <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/albertas-water-priority-system-tools-for-water-licence-holders">“first in time, first in right” (FITFIR) water governance</a> principle which emerged out of the Western United States and is essentially a first come, first served system of water allocation. To make matters worse, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3501079">new applications for water access have been closed since 2006</a>, a decision which will have a “significant effect on water supply strategies available to municipal water users, as many communities currently hold water licences that are not adequate for their projected growth.” </p>
<p>In <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/0778546209">2006 the government of Alberta</a> acknowledged that “the limits for water allocations have been reached or exceeded in the Bow, Oldman and South Saskatchewan River sub basins.” In the South Saskatchewan Basin, most of the water is allocated to a handful of license holders who have had licenses for high volumes of water for years. This is a substantial hurdle to overcome when trying to retain river water for aquatic ecosystems — a goal <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/er-2022-0126">often referred to as environmental flows or “e-flows”</a>.</p>
<p>Without substantial changes to the licensing program, aquatic ecosystem health will continue to be secondary to existing license holder uses. </p>
<p>Further complicating the matter is that allocations are looked at <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/62f582febb0b3104adabb617/t/6358b7a0bf6485031a91dc36/1666758567761/Final+Report+-+Review+of+the+Implementation+of+the+Approved+WMP+for+the+SSRB.pdf">annually and not seasonally</a>. This means that the system can’t adapt “on the fly” when low flows hit, unless there are specific government directives implemented to that effect. This is also true of current monitoring and reporting efforts across the country, with reporting and interpretation of data being done only after an <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/business/energy/survey-finds-oilsands-environmental-monitoring-ineffective-after-10-years">issue has occurred, if at all</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps most egregiously, the FITFIR approach has also long been criticized by Indigenous groups as disproportionately impacting their water rights and <a href="https://www.watercanada.net/feature/three-out-of-ten-odds-of-a-solution-to-first-nation-water-rights-in-alberta/">limiting water supplies in favour of competing industry and large agricultural needs</a>.</p>
<h2>Low-level impacts</h2>
<p>Alberta’s water regulations are generally not helping matters. Currently, regulations around pollution release are predominantly applied at the end-of-pipe, not throughout the river, meaning the impacts on the river will vary based on how much water is present. This often results <a href="https://doi.org/10.2166/wqrj.2019.033">in poor water quality events occurring in the summer,</a> when flow is lowest and the pollutants are less diluted. This has direct consequences on aquatic food webs and those that rely upon the river, especially in areas downstream of major sources of pollution.</p>
<p>Lower river flows and levels can result in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.11.010">increased water temperatures and</a> decreased oxygen availability for aquatic organisms. This can have harmful consequences on sensitive species like fish and their invertebrate food sources. The projected low flows in 2024 will likely lead to increased fish mortality.</p>
<p>There are numerous habitats around rivers that rely on certain levels of flow to be present for survival. Riparian areas (river banks) along the river run the risk of drying up and dying off if flow isn’t <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-020-01392-4">adequate</a>. While seasonal fluctuations in water levels are normal, the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/what-low-water-levels-in-edmonton-could-mean-for-fish-this-winter-1.7028203">uncharacteristically low flows this past fall and winter</a>, combined with expected lower water levels in the coming year may mean that these sensitive habitats are isolated for extended periods of time — not receiving the water and nutrients required for their survival.</p>
<p>The impacts aren’t restricted to organisms living directly in and around rivers in the region either. Low water flows affect the entire food web <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02705060.2023.2203728">from aquatic insects to apex predators</a> and with fewer prey available, larger fish populations may decline. These impacts also will only grow downstream as cumulative pressures on the river increase.</p>
<p>While rivers have seasonal flow patterns, low water flow isn’t just a seasonal issue. Climate change projections have been predicting more <a href="https://albertawater.com/climate-change-in-the-bow-basin/">frequent and severe droughts</a>, which will only exacerbate this issue.</p>
<h2>Preventing drought?</h2>
<p>2024 is likely the first of a series of years where we will see reduced snowpack, altered precipitation timing (and amounts) and increased water use pressures all combining to reduce river flows. </p>
<p>We have seen an initial reaction by <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=8971229900128-9793-C959-193E503D6C61CAD4">the provincial government</a> in Alberta; however, there has been a noticeable lack of acknowledgement from many governments and regulatory bodies across the country. This is a national issue and will be an ongoing issue as a result of climate change. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/02/19/Alberta-Brutal-Water-Reckoning/">tension between different water users has been predicted for over a decade</a>. Policy options to date have been limited and have lacked the inclusion of ecosystem-related considerations. There <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-parched-alberta-negotiating-with-water-holders-to-strike-share/">also has been discussion</a> around <a href="https://prism.ucalgary.ca/server/api/core/bitstreams/596932e4-12f8-46d6-90f6-7512479be965/content">increasing the allowance</a> of water which can be moved between basins. However, such systems could have major implications on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.1891">aquatic ecosystem health if utilized widely and must be done with great care.</a></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/johannesburgs-water-crisis-is-getting-worse-expert-explains-why-the-taps-keep-running-dry-in-south-africas-biggest-city-223926">Johannesburg's water crisis is getting worse – expert explains why the taps keep running dry in South Africa's biggest city</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As we move through what will be an unprecedented low water year, it will be critical that policymakers, regulators and all Canadians understand the far-reaching impacts. </p>
<p>Our existing approaches aren’t working. We must look beyond our current systems. This includes utilizing the knowledge of water quality experts as well as Indigenous Peoples who have relied on the river for centuries. </p>
<p>The management issue presenting itself is extremely complex and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2016.1238345">will require equally complex responses with input from all concerned parties</a>. But the costs of failure will be far greater than the costs of action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Barrett receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada and is involved in research projects in southern Alberta funded by the City of Calgary, Alberta Innovates, and the NSERC Alliance Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerry Black receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and is involved in research projects in southern Alberta funded by the City of Calgary, Alberta Innovates, and the NSERC Alliance Program.</span></em></p>
Declining precipitation, climate change and governance failures will drive water flow scarcity in 2024 with serious implications across Western Canada.
David Barrett, Research Associate, Faculty of Science, University of Calgary
Kerry Black, Assistant Professor and Canada Research Chair, Integrated Knowledge, Engineering and Sustainable Communities, University of Calgary
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/224902
2024-03-07T22:03:41Z
2024-03-07T22:03:41Z
Flood risk mapping is a public good, so why the public resistance in Canada? Lessons from Nova Scotia
<p>Flood risk maps are an essential public good. Indeed, many countries like the <a href="https://flood-map-for-planning.service.gov.uk/">United Kingdom already offer flood risk mapping</a>.</p>
<p>Canada committed to a public flood risk mapping portal in the <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap4-en.html#Raising%20Awareness%20of%20Flood%20Risks">2023 budget</a>. However, despite the <a href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/impacts/climate-water-is-the-new-fire">increasing frequency and impact of large, catastrophic floods</a>, we still have a sparse patchwork of flood risk maps at municipal and provincial scale. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://floodsmartcanada.ca/floodplain-maps/">flood mapping that does exist</a> is hard to find, of uncertain quality and currency, and often <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5206284/bad-flood-map-canada/">difficult for non-experts to understand and apply</a>. </p>
<p>The unacknowledged reason why there is a lack of flood risk mapping in Canada is because such maps generally face public resistance. Indeed, it is not uncommon in Canada to see flood or wetland mapping <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-withdraws-30-municipalities-from-contested-flood-zone-maps-1.4509236">withdrawn or modified</a> because of public pressure. </p>
<p>I led two survey-based studies recently with former graduate student Samantha Howard and post-doctoral fellow Brooke McWherter to understand how people in flood-prone areas of Nova Scotia perceive publicly available flood maps. We found wide agreement about the benefits of such maps — until we asked about the <a href="https://www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/treading-water-impact-of-catastrophic-flooding-on-canadas-housing-market/">impact on real estate value</a>. </p>
<h2>The case of Nova Scotia</h2>
<p>Nova Scotia faces some of the <a href="https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/8-0/">highest sea level rise in Canada</a> under current climate change projections. Yet last week, the Nova Scotia government <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-environment-tim-halman-climate-change-1.7125745">decided not to proceed with the long-awaited Coastal Protection Act (CPA)</a>, which had been passed with all-party assent in 2019. </p>
<p>Among other things, the act would have regulated how close people could build to the ocean based on assessments of sea level, storm projections and information about the elevation and erosion risk of each section of coast. This would have protected people and infrastructure, as well as sensitive coastal ecosystems, and left space for ocean dynamics. </p>
<p>In lieu of the act, the Nova Scotia government released a <a href="https://novascotia.ca/coastal-climate-change/">new website</a> featuring resources to help individual coastal property owners make decisions about their bit of coastline, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/municipalities-nova-scotia-coastal-protection-act-1.7021006">leaving dozens of rural coastal municipalities</a> in the lurch. One of those resources was a new <a href="https://nsgi.novascotia.ca/chm">coastal hazard map</a>. </p>
<p>The lengthy disclaimer you need to agree to before you can access the map immediately erodes its trustworthiness. Moreover, while people may trust any good news they see in its data, they may still be at risk due to the tool’s many data and design flaws. To supplement this tool, Nova Scotia has <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10317417/new-coastal-protection-plan-nova-scotia/">committed to finishing detailed flood line mapping by 2027</a>. </p>
<p>It is too soon to know how people are responding to this tool, but we know it does not take a lot of unhappy constituents to make a government nervous, especially if those constituents hold financial or political power. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-tim-halman-environment-climate-change-1.6959599">The public engagement associated with the CPA was, after all, overwhelmingly in support of proclaiming and regulating under the act</a>. Yet here we are. </p>
<h2>Drivers of resistance</h2>
<p>The first survey we ran in 2021 — through an online link sent via Canada Post to all residents in two towns in Southwestern Nova Scotia — showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">one in six people felt flood risk mapping presented too big a risk for real estate value</a>. Our second survey of about 1100 house residents around the Minas Basin, Nova Scotia, in 2022 found that <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10222/83004">one in three residents expressed concern about real estate value</a>. Both studies had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.</p>
<p>The first survey had a smaller response rate but represented the population demographics better. The second was biased toward older respondents and those with higher incomes. </p>
<p>Moving back to our original question — why doesn’t everyone see flood risk mapping as a public good?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-billion-dollar-disasters-list-shattered-the-us-record-with-28-big-weather-and-climate-disasters-amid-earths-hottest-year-on-record-220634">2023's billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth's hottest year on record</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We used slightly different questions in the two studies to understand the drivers of resistance to flood risk mapping based on perceived impact on real estate value. What emerged speaks to the challenge of inspiring long-term and collective thinking about climate change. </p>
<p>Firstly, being focused on oneself rather than others was a reliable predictor of resistance in both studies. </p>
<p>Resistance in the first study was associated with agreeing to the following statements: “I am not able to cope with the land changes required to deal with significant increases in flood risk at this point in my life,” and “flood management decisions I make do not have implications for others.” The latter is demonstrably untrue: shoreline armouring, for instance, can have negative effects for neighbours. In the second study, being focused on others and having descendants led to less resistance. </p>
<p>Self-orientation was a strong underlying driver of resistance. It reduced a person’s likelihood of focusing on others, the future or the biosphere. People already make decisions to suit their own situation, just as the Nova Scotia government is now <a href="https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/morning-file/the-houston-government-thinks-we-can-use-an-app-to-ward-off-storm-damage-and-sea-level-rise-individually-we-cant/#N1">encouraging coastal landowners to do</a>. Yet in these kinds of scenarios, collective and ecological interests are forgotten.</p>
<p>Secondly, the more vulnerable a person felt to flood risk, the more likely they were to oppose maps that would allow others to see their flood risk. This variable was only a strong signal of resistance in the second study when we used a combination of flood likelihood and vulnerability to measure it. This might also explain why resistance was twice as high in the 2022 survey than the one in 2021. It could be a regional difference based on actual differences in risk, or differences in survey method and thus respondent population, but it could also reflect increasing flood frequency and severity.</p>
<p>The second survey was still in the field when <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/weather-snoddon-fiona-recap-1.6976249">Hurricane Fiona</a> hit Atlantic Canada. This timing suggests that instead of becoming more open to climate adaptation information like flood maps as flooding events occur, we might become less open as we seek to protect the value of our biggest investments: our homes. </p>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>A clue to the path ahead may be found in our first study, where <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">those who had previously seen a flood map for their region</a> were slightly less likely to be resistant to public flood risk maps. This might indicate that such resistance is mostly borne of fear of the unknown. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wetlands-are-superheroes-expert-sets-out-how-they-protect-people-and-places-221995">Wetlands are superheroes: expert sets out how they protect people and places</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We urgently need high quality, public flood risk maps that the government stands by (including with planning regulations). Then we can focus on rethinking what it means to live a good coastal life in the face of climate change, and how we collectively support those who may face decreases in home or land value.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Sherren or her trainees received funding for this work from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the Nova Scotia Government. </span></em></p>
Public concerns for real estate value, and a focus on the self, make flood risk maps unpopular. However, these concerns should not dissuade governments from providing resources we can all trust.
Kate Sherren, Professor, School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/223153
2024-03-04T18:25:48Z
2024-03-04T18:25:48Z
Global warming may be behind an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold spells
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575431/original/file-20240213-30-h2gkre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bradford-uk-02-08-2024-electronic-2423109221">bennphoto / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global warming caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is already affecting our lives. Scorching summers, more intense heatwaves, longer drought periods, more extended floods, and wilder wildfires are consequences linked to this warming.</p>
<p>One less obvious consequence of global warming is also getting growing attention from scientists: <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/extreme-cold-snaps-could-get-worse-as-climate-warms/#:%7E:text=Many%20studies%20have%20shown%20that,and%20understood%20from%20physical%20reasoning.">a potential increase</a> in the intensity and frequency of winter cold snaps in the northern hemisphere.</p>
<p>Weather phenomena like the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/26/uk-braces-for-beast-from-the-east-as-met-office-warns-of-snow">Beast from the East in winter 2018</a>, the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-texas-freeze-february-2021">cold spell of Arctic air</a> that reached as <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/17/texas-winter-storm-2021-stories/">far South as Texas in February 2021</a>, or the storm that left <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/world/europe/spain-snow-storm-filomena.html">Madrid</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2021/feb/16/unusually-heavy-snow-blankets-athens-in-pictures">Athens</a> unusually covered in snow for days in early 2021 are becoming more common.</p>
<p>Some of the mechanisms that lead to their occurrence are strengthened by global warming. Key climate mechanisms, like exchanges of energy and air masses between different altitude ranges in the atmosphere, are evolving in ways expected to cause an increase in both the intensity and duration of cold snaps. These link to the behaviour of a region in the high atmosphere called the stratosphere.</p>
<p>Winter cold snaps have major societal impacts, from direct effects on health and loss of life, to effects on transport and infrastructure, surges in energy demand and damage to agricultural resources. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Acropolis in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Acropolis in Athens covered in snow in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/athens-greece-february-16-2021-acropolis-2258307795">Savvas Karmaniolas / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This winter, we have seen these effects over large parts of Europe and the US, with flight cancellations, airport closures, road queues and drivers trapped in extreme cold temperatures. There have also been sharp increases in energy demand to cope with indoor heating, an increase in cold-related hospital admissions and the activation of services needed to assist the most vulnerable.</p>
<p>We need to develop forecasting tools that can predict these events further in advance.</p>
<h2>Polar vortex</h2>
<p>Some of these cold snaps are linked to disruptions in a seasonal atmospheric phenomenon called the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). </p>
<p>In the northern hemisphere, this vortex consists of masses of cold air centred over the north pole, surrounded by a jet of very strong westerly winds between 15-50km above ground. These spinning winds act as a wall and keep cold air confined to the Arctic region, stopping it from travelling to lower latitudes. </p>
<p>Something that can disrupt the vortex is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), when the stratosphere experiences an abrupt increase in temperature due to energy and momentum being transferred from lower to higher altitudes. </p>
<p>When a major SSW occurs, the wall of strong winds around the polar stratosphere can break, allowing cold air to escape the polar vortex and travel down to lower atmospheric altitudes and lower latitudes. When that air approaches the Earth’s surface, significant cold spells can occur.</p>
<p>Even when SSWs are not strong enough to break the vortex, they can weaken it. This can cause polar air circulation patterns to meander further south into lower latitudes, reaching populated areas of North America and Eurasia, instead of staying nearer the north pole. Those areas can then experience temperatures tens of degrees lower than their winter average.</p>
<p>Under climate change, the transfer of energy from the lowest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere to the higher stratospheric layer is changing and seems to be disrupting the polar vortex to a greater degree. A <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/1259/2023/">study has shown</a> that the strength and duration of SSWs in the stratosphere have increased over the last 40 years. This increase is also expected to result in stronger winter cold snaps at surface levels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Polar Vortex" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The polar vortex is a crucial component in cold snaps affecting the Northern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/vortex_NH.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Forecasting challenge</h2>
<p>Accurately forecasting these cold snaps is crucial for helping society prepare appropriately for them. Developing computer-based forecasting tools that reproduce realistic interactions between the lower levels of the troposphere and the stratospheric region is an essential step towards this goal.</p>
<p>To correctly simulate the behaviour of the stratosphere and how it interacts with the troposphere, forecasting tools must include realistic descriptions of the abundance and distribution of stratospheric ozone. Ozone influences the interaction of air masses outside and inside the vortex, and therefore also the transport of colder air from higher to lower altitudes.</p>
<p>However, including all the chemical processes that ozone is involved in, at the resolution needed to predict these weather events, is prohibitive in terms of the computing power needed. This is even truer if we want to predict events one season ahead. </p>
<p>My research looks at ways to improve forecasting models to better capture the type of stratospheric behaviour that leads to these cold spells. To do this I have developed alternatives that can realistically simulate processes in the stratosphere, including aspects of ozone chemistry, using less computing power. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/4277/2022/">study I led</a>, we used these alternatives to simulate interactions between the ozone layer, temperature and solar radiation in the global computer model used to produce some of the best weather forecasts in the world.</p>
<p>The experiments we did with this model showed that including this realistic alternative representation of stratospheric ozone led to improvements in simulations of temperature distribution in the stratosphere. This means that it can help provide useful information about triggers of cold spells like SSWs.</p>
<p>Developing and using these alternatives in climate modelling is a significant milestone towards what we call seamless prediction: using the same computer modelling tools to predict both weather and climate. This allows for a more accurate establishment of causal links between climate change and extreme weather events.</p>
<p>A question many may be wondering is if this extreme cold could be counteracting global warming. Unfortunately, not. While this winter has brought days of extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfall in the northern hemisphere, the current summer in the southern hemisphere has seen some of the hottest days on record for populated areas of Australia, with temperatures of around 50ºC.</p>
<p>Global warming makes extreme weather more extreme, and scientific studies are starting to provide proof that this also applies to extreme winter cold spells. Developing the best possible modelling tools is essential to predict the evolution of extreme weather events in the coming years so that we can be better prepared for them.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatriz Monge-Sanz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Cold snaps can affect everyday services and infrastructure, putting lives at risk.
Beatriz Monge-Sanz, Senior Researcher, Department of Physics, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/222851
2024-02-26T13:38:23Z
2024-02-26T13:38:23Z
How is snow made? An atmospheric scientist describes the journey of frozen ice crystals from clouds to the ground
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576863/original/file-20240220-22-v6kq2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C5%2C3764%2C2055&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some parts of the U.S. see well over 100 inches (2.5 meters) of snow per year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/downhill-sledging-royalty-free-image/488074477?phrase=sledding+in+snow">Edoardo Frola/Moment Open via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>How is snow made? – Tenley, age 7, Rockford, Michigan</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>The thought of snow can conjure up images of powdery slopes, days out of school or hours of shoveling. For millions of people, it’s an inevitable part of life – but you may rarely stop to think about what made the snow.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.eaps.purdue.edu/people/profile/ablanch.html">professor of atmospheric and planetary sciences</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xClwTzUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I’ve studied how ice crystals floating</a> in the sky become the snow that coats the ground.</p>
<p>It all starts in the clouds.</p>
<p>Clouds form when air near the Earth’s surface rises. This happens when sunlight warms the ground and the air closest to it, just like the Sun can warm your face on a cold winter day. </p>
<p>As the slightly warmer air rises, it cools – and the water vapor in that rising air condenses to form liquid water or water ice. From that, <a href="https://climatekids.nasa.gov/cloud-formation/#:%7E">a cloud is born</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Cf6El0mI1fM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">You need just two things for snow to form.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Endless pathways</h2>
<p>When temperatures are well below freezing on the ground, the clouds are primarily made of water in the form of ice. Under 32 degrees Fahrenheit – that’s zero degrees Celsius – the frozen water molecules arrange themselves into a hexagonal, or six-sided, crystalline shape. As ice crystals grow and clump together, they become too heavy to stay aloft. With the help of gravity, they begin to fall back down through and eventually out of the cloud.</p>
<p>What these ice crystals look like once they reach land depends on the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere. As the humidity – or the amount of water vapor in the cloud – increases, some of the ice crystals will grow intricate arms at their six corners. That branching process creates what we think of as the <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g2/snowflake-science-g2-5-plus/?rl=en-500">characteristic shapes of snowflakes</a>. </p>
<p>No two ice crystals take the same path through a cloud. Instead, every ice crystal experiences different temperatures and humidities as it travels through the cloud, whether going up or down. The ever-changing conditions, combined with the infinite number of paths the crystals could take, result in a unique growth history and crystalline shape for each and every snowflake. This is why you’ve likely heard the saying, “<a href="https://www.willyswilderness.org/post/no-two-snowflakes-are-alike-it-s-actually-true">No two snowflakes are exactly alike</a>.” </p>
<p>Many times, these differences are visible to the naked eye; sometimes a microscope is required to tell them apart. Either way, scientists who study clouds and snow can examine a snowflake and ultimately understand the path it took through the cloud to land on your hand. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Snow crystals attached to a window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576901/original/file-20240220-23-n5kry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It takes approximately one hour for a snowflake to reach the ground.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/snowflakes-royalty-free-image/158720307?phrase=snowflakes">LiLi/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Liquid water as glue</h2>
<p>When snow falls from the sky, you don’t usually see individual ice crystals, but rather clumps of <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/storms/snowflakes">crystals stuck together</a>. One way ice crystals aggregate is through what’s called mechanical interlocking. When ice crystals bump into each other, crystals with intricate branches and arms intertwine and stick to others. </p>
<p>This mechanism is the main sticking process in cooler, drier conditions – what people call a “<a href="https://compuweather.com/the-important-difference-between-wet-snow-and-dry-snow/">dry snow</a>.” The result is a snow perfect for skiing, and easily picked up by the wind, but that won’t hold together when formed into a snowball. </p>
<p>The second way to stick ice crystals together is to warm them up a bit. When ice crystals fall through a region of cloud or atmosphere where the temperature is slightly above freezing, the edges of the crystals start to melt. Just a tiny bit of liquid water allows ice crystals that bump into each other to stick together very efficiently, almost like glue. </p>
<p>The result? Large clumps of ice crystals falling from the sky, what we call a “<a href="https://www.acurite.com/blog/types-of-snow.html">wet snow</a>” – less than ideal for hitting the slopes but perfect for building a snowman. </p>
<p>Snow formed in clouds typically reaches the ground only in winter. But almost all clouds, no matter the time of year or location, <a href="https://scijinks.gov/clouds/">contain some ice</a>. This is true even for clouds in warm tropical regions, because the atmosphere above us is much colder and can reach temperatures below freezing even on the warmest of days. In fact, scientists who study weather discovered that clouds containing ice produce more rain than those that don’t contain any ice at all.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
<p><em>And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandria Johnson receives funding from NASA. </span></em></p>
There are an infinite number of paths an ice crystal can take before you touch it.
Alexandria Johnson, Professor of Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/222329
2024-02-20T22:35:26Z
2024-02-20T22:35:26Z
How global warming is reshaping winter life in Canada
<p>As we begin to emerge out of yet another mild winter, Canadians are once again being reminded of just how acutely global warming has changed Canada’s winter climate. </p>
<p>The impacts of this mild winter were felt across the country and touched all aspects of winter culture. From <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-winter-carnival-closes-palais-de-bonhomme-due-to-warm-weather-1.6764453">melting ice castles at Québec’s winter carnival</a>, to a dismal lack of snow at <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-ski-resorts-struggle-with-lack-of-snow-as-warm-weather-persists/">many Western Canada ski resorts</a>, seemingly no part of Canada was unaffected. But the change that will likely be felt most keenly by many Canadians is the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014028">loss of a reliable outdoor skating season</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion-218019">COP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For the second year running, <a href="https://ncc-ccn.gc.ca/places/rideau-canal-skateway">Ottawa’s Rideau Canal Skateway</a> was closed for what should be the peak of the skating season. In 2022-2023, the Skateway did not open at all for the first time ever. This winter, a portion of the Skateway opened briefly in January, but continuing mild temperatures forced a closure again after only four days of skating. In Montréal, <a href="https://www.patinermontreal.ca/f/paysagee/patin-libre/sports-dequipe">fewer than 40 per cent of the city’s outdoor rinks were open</a> in the middle of February.</p>
<p>There is no obvious upside to this story. Outdoor skating in Canada is fast becoming the latest casualty of our failure to confront the reality of the climate crisis.</p>
<h2>On thin ice</h2>
<p>More than a decade ago, our research group published <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014028">our first analysis</a> of how outdoor skating was being affected by warming winter temperatures in Canada. We showed that even as of 2005, there was already evidence of later start dates, and shorter skating seasons across most of the country. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s89qXYP1DqE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on the management of the Rideau Canal Skateway in 2023, produced by the CBC.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These conclusions were echoed by <a href="https://www.rinkwatch.org">subsequent publications from the RinkWatch project</a>, which has reported <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12878">consistent declines in skating season length and quality</a> in many Canadian cities.</p>
<p>Meanwhile in Ottawa, skating days on the <a href="https://rideaucanalskateway.com/">Rideau Canal Skateway</a> have been trending downwards over the last 20 years. In this time, the typical skating season has decreased by almost 40 per cent, a trend that is clearly correlated with increasing winter temperatures over the same period. </p>
<h2>Moving in the wrong direction</h2>
<p>Climate mitigation progress continues to be far too slow. </p>
<p>Global CO2 emissions reached their <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-co2-emissions-at-record-high-in-2023/">highest level ever recorded in 2023</a>, and average global temperatures have now reached <a href="https://berkeleyearth.org">1.3 C above pre-industrial temperatures</a>. If these trends continue, we are on track to reach 1.5 C — the lower threshold of the Paris Agreement temperature target — in <a href="https://climateclock.net">less than seven years</a>.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12878">2012 paper</a>, we estimated that suitable rink flooding days could disappear across most of southern Canada by mid-century. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab8ca8">a more recent analysis of Montréal’s outdoor rinks</a>, we estimated that the number of viable skating days in Montréal could decrease to zero by as early as 2070. </p>
<p>In hindsight, these and other similar projections may have been far too optimistic. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2465">study of Rideau canal skating days published in 2015</a>, the authors projected declining but sustained skating conditions throughout this century, even in a high future emissions scenario. The reality of the past two seasons shows that skating conditions have deteriorated far more quickly than predicted. </p>
<p>Global temperatures in 2023 were the highest ever recorded, as were winter temperatures in December 2023 and January 2024. Since 1950, winter temperatures in Canada have increased by more than 3 C, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth-220997">which is about three times the rate of global warming over this same period</a>. </p>
<p>Outdoor rinks require at least three consecutive very cold days to establish a foundation of ice, followed by enough cold days to maintain a good ice surface. Temperatures above freezing are poorly tolerated by outdoor rinks, and rain is often disastrous. </p>
<p>A few degrees of warming in January and February temperatures can be the difference between a rink that is skatable and one that is not. As winters continue to warm, the case for building and maintaining outdoor municipal rinks will become harder to justify.</p>
<h2>A stark and still changing new reality</h2>
<p>As years go by without any real progress on climate mitigation, it is becoming increasingly difficult to imagine a future in which outdoor rinks will be widely available without artificial refrigeration. Other winter activities will also be affected by changing snow conditions, but outdoor skating will likely be hit first in direct response to warming winter temperatures.</p>
<p>Wayne Gretzky famously <a href="https://gretzky.com/bio.php">learned to skate and play hockey in Branford, Ont. in the 1960s on an outdoor rink built by his father</a>. Reliable winter skating conditions in southern Ontario are already mostly a thing of the past, and are becoming more and more scarce as global warming progresses. It is increasingly unlikely that current and future generations will be able to follow Gretzky’s path. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-good-news-story-about-the-ecological-crisis-be-the-collective-grief-we-are-feeling-215658">Could the good news story about the ecological crisis be the collective grief we are feeling?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This reality is both a tragic injustice for many young Canadians and an existential threat to a core aspect of the Canadian winter identity.</p>
<p>Preserving what remains of Canada’s winter skating culture will require that we rapidly step up our efforts to drive down CO2 emissions and stabilize global temperatures. Otherwise, Joni Mitchell’s “<a href="https://genius.com/Joni-mitchell-river-lyrics">river I could skate away on</a>” will become an increasingly wishful dream that soon will exist only in the lyrics of old songs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222329/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mitchell Dickau receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>
Global warming is melting away an iconic cornerstone of Canadian culture — outdoor skating.
H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Climate Scientist, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University
Mitchell Dickau, PhD Candidate, Geography, Planning, and Environment Department, Concordia University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221522
2024-02-09T10:35:24Z
2024-02-09T10:35:24Z
Weather v climate: how to make sense of an unusual cold snap while the world is hotter than ever
<p>Earlier this year, the UK’s weather and climate service, the Met Office, announced average global temperatures in 2023 were <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/2023-the-warmest-year-on-record-globally">1.46°C</a> above pre-industrial levels. This made it the hottest year on record, 0.17°C higher than the previous record in 2016. </p>
<p>However, shortly after that announcement, the Met Office also forecast a multi-day blast of cold Arctic air bringing sub-zero temperatures, snow and ice to many parts of the UK. When the cold snap arrived, temperatures dropped to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/18/more-snow-and-ice-warnings-as-uk-wakes-up-from-subzero-night">-14°C in the Scottish Highlands and -11°C even in England</a>. </p>
<p>Ten days later, a village in the Scottish Highlands reached <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-68119951">a balmy 19.9°C</a>, the warmest January temperature ever recorded anywhere in the UK – by a full degree Celsius. That might seem more in keeping with the global warming trend. Yet just ten days on from that record warmth, much of the UK has again been hit by unusually <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-latest-25cm-of-snow-forecast-in-places-as-weather-warnings-issued-across-uk-13066412">cold and snowy weather</a>. </p>
<p>It’s not just the UK. This winter, record-low temperatures have been observed right across <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/extreme-cold-climate-change-1.7087754">Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/15/us-weather-arctic-blast-extreme-cold">the US</a> and <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/parts-china-shanxi-hebei-liaoning-gripped-record-low-temperatures-icy-snap-3994976">China</a>.</p>
<p>This might seem confusing. Why are the weather and the climate producing such opposing signs? The reason is that they refer to atmospheric characteristics on substantially different timescales.</p>
<h2>You cannot sense the climate</h2>
<p>I do not think there is a person on Earth who can truly experience a “global annual average” of temperature. No one really knows what a degree of extra warmth over a century feels like, especially given temperatures might vary by 10°C between day and night in the UK, for example, or by 20°C and more between a hot summer day and a cold winter night. </p>
<p>This means we usually have a hard time feeling or recalling seasonal averages and how they change with passing years. We can spot climate changes in environmental shifts like receding glaciers or early flowering plants, and we can track changes with instruments. But it remains very hard to “feel” climate change.</p>
<p>In contrast, we feel and much better remember the weather on daily and weekly timescales – particularly extreme weather like a cold snap, heatwave or strong storm. </p>
<h2>Hot one day, cold the next</h2>
<p>Weather phenomena are very rapid and variable compared with climate properties that are defined and changing on longer time scales. The weather might be hot one day and cold the next, but an annual mean climate cannot suddenly slide from warm to cold. </p>
<p>The climate is essentially an accumulation of weather across a considerable amount of time. For example, weather information might refer to the local temperature at noon or 4pm, the daily minimum, average or maximum temperatures, or the weekly average. Whereas climate is much longer term. </p>
<p>Climate information might refer to, for example, average temperatures over a month, or averages over seasonal (three-month) periods, years or decades. In climate analysis, we usually look for anomalies with respect to the “baseline” – a longer-term average of perhaps 30 or 50 years of data. </p>
<h2>The line wiggles upwards</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two graphs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Left: global annual mean carbon dioxide (black curve) and air temperature (red curve) since 1850. Right: Average temperatures over central England in summer (red curve) and winter (curve). Temperatures relative to 1850–1900 average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neven Fuckar / Data: Met Office HadCRUT5 and HadCET</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We can use more than a century of data to spot patterns, such as the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change">close relationship</a> in the left graph (above) between global atmospheric CO₂ and near-surface temperatures. There are, of course, some variations of around 0.1°C or so – the wiggles in the red line – as the climate does not change perfectly smoothly. That’s why 2016 was exceptionally hot, and the years after were slightly cooler.</p>
<p>These variations become more pronounced when we zoom in and examine a smaller regional area or shorter time units. For example, the right-hand graph above shows data from the Central England Temperature (<a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/">HadCET</a>) record, the world’s longest-running instrumental temperature record which began in 1659. This graph, which shows both winter and summer mean temperatures for central England, picks up more substantial variability over the same period from 1850 by both measures – on the order of 1°C. The internal variability of these seasonal means in essence drowns out long-term climate change at this regional scale before 1960s.</p>
<p>Looking at the right-hand graph alone – 174 years of data – you’d struggle to spot recent climate change. But zoom out to the global annual mean data in the left graph, and the long-term trend becomes clear.</p>
<p>We can zoom in even further to look at daily winter weather variability <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid">in the English county of Oxfordshire (HadUK-Grid)</a>. The histograms below show daily minimum temperatures (the left panels 2.a and 2.c) and daily mean temperatures (the right panels 2.b and 2.d) from two distinct 21-year periods. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four histograms of winter (December-January-February: DJF) daily minimum and mean temperatures in Oxfordshire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How winters are changing in Oxfordshire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neven Fuckar / Data: Met Office HadUK-Grid</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They show that the chances of experiencing sub-zero weather is still significant even in the more recent 2002-2022 period. However, the “tail” of daily minimum temperatures to the left of the mean is thinner, so extreme cold temperatures are less common. The average daily minimum of 0.59°C (the number in blue) has increased by about 1°C to 1.6°C in the more recent period, while the daily mean increased by 1.29°C – both increases are greater than global warming over this time.</p>
<p>These are signs that Oxfordshire is warming over the long term, and its winters are warming slightly faster than the world as a whole. Global climate change makes high temperature extremes more likely, even in winter. It does not forbid winter cold snaps, but it does reduce their likelihood. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neven Fučkar receives funding from NIHR.</span></em></p>
It’s getting warmer, but there are bumps on the way.
Neven S. Fučkar, Senior Researcher, School of Geography and the Environmen, University of Oxford, and Lecturer, School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221709
2024-01-30T13:35:00Z
2024-01-30T13:35:00Z
Dog care below freezing − how to keep your pet warm and safe from cold weather, road salt and more this winter
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571552/original/file-20240125-22431-dyxkh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C0%2C4715%2C3067&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dogs get cold in the winter too, but there are things pet owners can do to help them feel comfortable. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NYColdWeather/de8019836ce9475e91bf816b1401fa3b/photo?Query=dog%20in%20snow&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=310&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=NaN&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/David Duprey</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Time outside with your dog in the spring, summer and fall can be lovely. Visiting your favorite downtown café on a cool spring morning, going to a favorite dog park on a clear summer evening or going on walks along a river when the leaves are changing color are all wonderful when the weather is favorable. But in much of the country, when winter rolls around, previously hospitable conditions can <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-winter-miserable-for-wildlife-108734">quickly turn chilly and dangerous</a> for people and pups alike. </p>
<p>Winter brings some unique challenges for dog owners, since dogs still need activity and socialization during colder seasons. Studies have shown that dog owners are almost 50% less likely to walk their dogs <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ani11113302">when the weather gets cold</a>. Knowing the basics of winter safety is critical to maintaining a healthy lifestyle for your dog. </p>
<p>I am an <a href="https://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/faculty/erik-olstad">assistant professor</a> at the University of California Davis School of Veterinary Medicine who weathered polar vortexes with my dog while living in Michigan early in my career. While I’ve since moved to sunny California, I’ve seen how quickly frigid temperatures can turn dangerous for pets.</p>
<h2>Breed and age differences</h2>
<p>Not all dogs have the same abilities to deal with cold weather. A short-coated dog like a Chihuahua is much more susceptible to the dangers of cold weather than a thick-coated husky. When the weather dips below 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), the well-acclimated husky may be comfortable, whereas the Chihuahua would shiver and be at risk of hypothermia. </p>
<p>Additionally, if your dog is used to warm weather, but you decide to move to a colder region, the dog will need time to acclimate to that colder weather, even if they have a thick coat. </p>
<p>Age also affects cold-weather resilience. Puppies and elderly dogs can’t withstand the chill as well as other dogs, but every dog is unique – each may have individual health conditions or physical attributes that make them more or less resilient to cold weather. </p>
<h2>When is my dog too cold?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A small dog wearing a thick, fluffy red coat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571548/original/file-20240125-29-dudlyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dog jackets can keep pets warm in the cold.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherTexas/b82392611da74eb69750dd2a12c73817/photo?Query=dog%20jacket&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=320&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=1&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pet owners should be able to recognize the symptoms of a dog that is getting too cold. Dogs will shiver, and some may vocalize or whine. Dogs may resist putting their feet down on the cold ground, or burrow, or try to find warmth in their environment when they are uncomfortable. </p>
<p>Just like people, <a href="https://vcahospitals.com/know-your-pet/frostbite-in-dogs">dogs can get frostbite</a>. And just like people, the signs can take days to appear, making it hard to assess them in the moment. The most common sites for frostbite in dogs are their ears and the tips of their tails. Some of the initial signs of frostbite are skin discoloring, turning paler than normal, or purple, gray or even black; red, blistered skin; swelling; pain at the site; <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/ulcer">or ulceration</a>.</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://vcahospitals.com/know-your-pet/frostbite-in-dogs">serious signs of hypothermia</a> include sluggishness or lethargy, and if you observe them, please visit your veterinarian immediately. A good rule to live by is if it is too cold for you, it is too cold for your dog. </p>
<p>Getting your dog a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/pets/best-winter-dog-coats-jackets">sweater or jacket</a> and <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/vets-corner/protect-dogs-paws-snow-ice-salt/">paw covers</a> can provide them with protection from the elements and keep them comfortable. Veterinarians also recommend closely monitoring your dog and limiting their time outside when the temperature nears the freezing point or drops below it.</p>
<h2>Road salt dangers</h2>
<p>Road salt that treats ice on streets and sidewalks <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/ice-salt-toxic-for-pets-1.5020088">can also harm dogs</a>. When dogs walk on the salt, the sharp, rough edges of the salt crystals can irritate the sensitive skin on their paws. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A fluffy dog sits in the snow wearing two cloth, polka dot paw covers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571542/original/file-20240125-19-4pvz2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Paw covers for dogs can keep their feet warm and protected from road salt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PetsColdFeet/711807120a854c5787e5dfdaba307a44/photo?Query=dog%20boots&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=379&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=12&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Jim Cole</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Dogs will often lick their feet when they’re dirty, wet or irritated, and if they ingest any salt doing that, they may face GI upset, dehydration, kidney failure, seizures or even death. Even small amounts of pure salt can <a href="https://www.petpoisonhelpline.com/pet-tips/my-dog-ate-road-salt-will-they-be-okay/">disrupt critical body functions</a> in dogs.</p>
<p>Some companies make pet-safe salt, but in public it can be hard to tell what type of salt is on the ground. After walking your dog, wash off their feet or boots. You can also keep their paw fur trimmed to prevent snow from balling up or salt collecting in the fur. Applying a thin layer of petroleum jelly or <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/lifestyle/how-to-make-your-own-paw-balm-for-winter/">paw pad balm</a> to the skin of the paw pads can also help protect your pet’s paws from irritation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A snowy sidewalk covered in tiny chunks of salt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571553/original/file-20240125-28-o148ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Road salt can be harmful to dogs’ sensitive paws.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Road_salt_in_Moscow_01.jpg">Stolbovsky/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Antifreeze risks</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/antifreeze-chemical-substance">Antifreeze, or ethylene glycol</a>, is in most vehicles to prevent the fluids from freezing when it gets cold out. Some people pour antifreeze into their toilets when away from their home to prevent the water in the toilet from freezing.</p>
<p>Antifreeze is an exceptionally dangerous chemical to dogs and cats, as it tastes sweet but can be deadly when ingested. If a pet ingests even a small amount of antifreeze, the substance causes a chemical cascade in their body that results in severe kidney damage. If left untreated, the pet may have <a href="https://www.petpoisonhelpline.com/pet-owner-blog/antifreeze-poisoning/">permanent kidney damage or die</a>.</p>
<p>There are safer antifreeze options on the market that use ingredients other than ethylene glycol. If your dog ingests antifreeze, please see your veterinarian immediately for treatment.</p>
<p>When temperatures dip below freezing, the best thing pet owners can do is keep the time spent outside as minimal as possible. Try some <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/lifestyle/great-indoor-games-to-play-with-your-dog/">indoor activities</a>, like hide-and-seek with low-calorie treats, fetch or even an interactive obstacle course. Food puzzles can also keep your dog mentally engaged during indoor time.</p>
<p>Although winter presents some unique challenges, it can still be an enjoyable and healthy time for you and your canine companion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Christian Olstad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Dogs might have furry coats, but they can still get cold when the temperature drops.
Erik Christian Olstad, Health Sciences Assistant Professor of Clinical Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221737
2024-01-24T03:26:11Z
2024-01-24T03:26:11Z
As another cyclone heads for Queensland, we must be ready for the new threat: torrential rain and floods
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571073/original/file-20240124-15-lfd1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3999%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We’ve long known cyclones are <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/46/a-look-inside-the-structure-of-a-tropical-cyclone/">heat engines</a>, fuelled by hot water. They also pump heat from the hot tropics into <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">cooler areas</a>. But they’re starting to behave differently. As the world heats up, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. When cyclones form, they can transfer significantly more water from oceans to land. </p>
<p>We saw this in December. Most of the damage done by Cyclone Jasper when it hit far north Queensland wasn’t from the intense winds. It was when the Category 2 storm stalled over Cape York, dumping huge amounts of rain – over 2 metres in some areas – and triggering devastating floods. </p>
<p>It’s likely to happen again this week, as a slow-moving tropical low heads for northern Queensland, carrying huge volumes of water and <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/cyclone-kirrily-updates-system-likely-to-bring-heavy-rain-and-destructive-winds-to-north-queensland/1df6528e-3028-40bc-8c32-868ba005488f">threatening new floods</a>. Authorities are warning people to prepare – not just on the coast but well inland. </p>
<p>The storm – likely to be named Cyclone Kirrily – will be the second to make landfall this season. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map of queensland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571074/original/file-20240124-17-olrpe6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rain from Cyclone Kirrily is likely to stretch well inland. This map shows the rainfall forecast for Friday January 26th.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cyclone Kirrily: Prepare for floods as well as winds</h2>
<p>The tropical storm has taken a long time to intensify and is moving very slowly. While it hasn’t yet reached cyclone status, it is expected to make landfall as a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-24/tropical-cyclone-kirrily-category-two-queensland-bom/103378666">Category 2 storm</a>.</p>
<p>What it is carrying, though, is water – enough to dump up to a metre of rain in some places, and a long way into central and western Queensland. </p>
<p>If you live in northern Australia, you’ll know about <a href="https://www.getready.qld.gov.au/getting-ready/cyclones">being prepared</a> for cyclones. When a warning arrives, people pack away or tie down loose objects, trim tree branches and fill up the bathtub in case water supplies are disrupted. </p>
<p>But often, we’re focused just on the damaging winds – when water can often do more damage. </p>
<p>If you live close to the sea, the storm surge – flooding from the sea – is often underestimated as a threat.</p>
<p>But the new major threat is terrestrial flooding. We are already starting to see <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01344-2">significantly more rainfall</a> linked to cyclones. Warmer air holds more moisture, and the world is steadily heating up. </p>
<p>This summer, sea surface temperatures have been unusually high off the east coast, all the way from Cape York down to Tasmania. Normally, in El Niño, we would expect lower sea surface temperatures and higher air temperatures. But this El Niño isn’t behaving as we’d normally expect. That’s one reason the east coast has had so much summer rain. </p>
<p>Normally, 75% of Australia’s cyclones hit the northwest of Western Australia, due to the high sea surface temperatures and the way the coast is oriented. But this year, the northwest region is sweltering in heatwaves – but no cyclones have yet made landfall. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The future has fewer cyclones, but more intense</h2>
<p>Climate change is expected to change tropical cyclone patterns. The overall number is expected to decrease, but their intensity will likely <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml">increase</a>, bringing stronger wind and heavier rain.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I have found the change is already happening. The low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12882#:%7E:text=There%20has%20been%20significantly%20less,22.42%2C%20P%20%3C%200.001">are unprecedented</a> over the past 550 to 1,500 years. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07234">More intense</a> tropical cyclones are expected because higher sea-surface temperatures will make the atmosphere more warm and moist. Cyclones thrive in such conditions.</p>
<p>But the general frequency of tropical cyclones is expected to <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/3cf983377b8043ff1ecf15709eebf298.pdf">reduce</a> under climate change in most ocean basins, including the Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>Tropical cyclones usually form when there’s a large difference between temperatures at Earth’s surface and the upper atmosphere. As the climate warms, this temperature difference is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation/">likely to narrow</a>.</p>
<p>As the heat in the oceans intensifies, cyclones will be able to form further down the east coast. Cyclones have hit Brisbane and even northern New South Wales in the past. These tropical storms form over warm water – between 26.5 and 30°C. The water along Kirrily’s track is at the higher end – around 30°C. Warm water produces warm, moist air, which is the energy-dense feedstock of cyclones. </p>
<h2>What should we do to prepare?</h2>
<p>In states such as Queensland, emergency response is a finely honed art. We’re excellent at dealing with the emergency when it’s happening and the immediate aftermath. </p>
<p>But we’ve still got a long way to go in mitigation. Houses are still being built in the path of flooding rivers or where they can be hit by storm surge. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anatomy-of-monster-storm-how-cyclone-ilsa-is-shaping-up-to-devastate-the-wa-coast-203678">Anatomy of monster storm: how Cyclone Ilsa is shaping up to devastate the WA coast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Nott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The new threat from cyclones can come from behind you – flooding from more intense rainfall.
Jonathan Nott, Professor of Physical Geography, James Cook University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221496
2024-01-23T18:59:54Z
2024-01-23T18:59:54Z
Did the BOM get it wrong on the hot, dry summer? No – predicting chaotic systems is probability, not certainty
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570789/original/file-20240123-15-btnti9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C6%2C4123%2C2763&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What happened to the <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/releases/1205/the-bureau-forecasts-an-unusually-warm-summer/">scorching El Niño summer</a> we were bracing for? Why has the east coast of Australia been drenched while the north and west gets the heat? </p>
<p>For beachgoers, a wrong weather forecast is annoying. For farmers, it can be very expensive. And for northern Queensland residents surprised by flooding after Cyclone Jasper, it can be devastating. Small wonder there’s <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/farmers-roast-bom-forecasts-but-it-says-its-top-five-in-the-world/news-story/c945a38830fd6ea189e253b91b03fd36">been plenty</a> of <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/12/20/bom-criticised-for-queensland-rain-forecasts/">criticism</a> levelled at the Bureau of Meteorology and other forecasting agencies this summer. </p>
<p>The criticism is understandable. But is it fair? No. The reason is that weather forecasting is inherently not about certainty but probability. Our atmosphere and oceans do not behave in simple, easily predictable ways. They are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230203-why-the-world-feels-so-unstable-right-now">non-linear, chaotic systems</a>. That means we can only predict large weather features such as highs and lows or bands of storms with relative certainty and even then only for a few days in advance. </p>
<h2>We want certainty – but we have to settle for probability</h2>
<p>Let’s say you check your weather app and see your location has a 60% chance of rain at midday. What does this actually mean? </p>
<p>It means if this forecast was issued 100 times, you should get wet 60 times and stay dry 40 times.</p>
<p>To forecast rainfall <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">for a whole season ahead</a>, meteorologists generally calculate the chance of exceeding average conditions, rather than stating that we will have a dry or wet summer with certainty. </p>
<p>So if we predict a 25% chance of above-average rain during an El Niño summer, we would expect that one out of every four times we make this prediction, we would observe higher rainfall than the average. </p>
<p>So how then do we know if we are making good forecasts? Given that a 60% chance of rain can mean wet or dry, albeit with different odds, we certainly won’t be able to judge the forecast quality based on a single event. Instead, we assess many forecasts of 60% rain made in the past to see if the 60 to 40 split of wet and dry eventuated. If it did for this and all other possible probabilities, the forecasts work well. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="storms entering sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570791/original/file-20240123-19-axi289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Big weather events such as bands of storms are easier to predict with some certainty. But other weather is much harder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This isn’t what we’d like. Many of us find probabilistic forecasts confusing. Intuitively, we would prefer to simplify them into absolute statements. </p>
<p>Take a picnic you have planned for tomorrow. If you read the statement “there will be thunderstorms at noon tomorrow at Picnic Spot,” you will feel confident it’s best to cancel the event. But the statement “there’s a 60% chance of thunderstorms at noon tomorrow at Picnic Spot” is far more accurate. The first gives false certainty, by vastly oversimplifying what we really know. </p>
<p>Let’s not forget, there is a 40% chance it will stay dry, which the first statement completely ignores. And if it does stay dry, how will your friends react to the cancelled picnic? How much risk are you willing to take?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-do-people-know-what-the-weather-will-be-108295">Curious Kids: how do people know what the weather will be?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When we criticise weather forecasts for their inaccuracy, we are usually being unfair. You can’t actually say a weather forecast was wrong if you experienced rain when the forecast was for a high chance of being dry. It’s simply not possible to tell from a single day or even a season how well our forecasts are working because of the nature of how our atmosphere and oceans behave. We’ve known about this <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/20/2/1520-0469_1963_020_0130_dnf_2_0_co_2.xml">for 60 years</a>. </p>
<p>That is why the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal forecasts come in likelihoods, such as the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20230928-outlook.shtml">rainfall outlook for October to December</a> issued on September 28th. It predicted that “October to December rainfall was likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for much of Australia excluding most of central and northwestern WA and south-west Tasmania.” Note that the forecast had a 20-40% chance for the wetter than usual conditions which some parts of Australia ended up experiencing. </p>
<p>But beware: We can’t declare the success or failure of a likelihood forecast from a single season. What the likelihood gives us is the ability to make better decisions based on the best information we have. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1747819013646987638"}"></div></p>
<h2>Less than certain but far better than nothing</h2>
<p>Given these constraints, how can we best use probabilistic forecasts in making decisions? </p>
<p>Here, weather and climate forecasting alone cannot provide the answers. The use and value of a particular forecast strongly depend on what decisions need to be made, our values, and what economic circumstances decisions are made in. </p>
<p>A very simple example is to <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49712757715">assess how much</a> it would cost to protect ourselves against, say, a flood, and the loss we would incur if we did not protect ourselves and then the event happened. </p>
<p>If the cost of protection is very low and the loss very large, the answer is simple: protect yourself all the time. High protection costs and low losses imply we should never protect ourselves. Both statements can be made without bringing in the forecast probability. But in the middle, it gets tricky. How much should you spend on a highly damaging event with a low probability of occurring? </p>
<p>Deterministic weather forecasts giving certainty are only possible for a week or two, and only for the large features of the weather. This means longer term forecasts and those for intense weather systems such as thunderstorms or tropical cyclones will only ever be possible by assessing how likely different outcomes are, and giving us a probability. </p>
<p>It’s fine to complain about the weather. But we can’t complain about the forecasting based on a single event. We want to know what’s coming our way, but the weather doesn’t work like that. We owe it to society to provide and use the best information we have to protect and save property and lives. There is too much at stake to keep it simple. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-is-outpacing-even-the-worst-case-scenarios-of-our-forecasting-models-216562">Extreme weather is outpacing even the worst-case scenarios of our forecasting models</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>
We crave certainty in our weather forecasts. But that’s only possible for big weather events such as cyclones and major storms. Everything else is probability.
Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/220997
2024-01-11T22:04:23Z
2024-01-11T22:04:23Z
2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth
<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In 2015, most countries, including Canada, signed on to the Paris Climate Agreement which set the objective of <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">“holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing the limit of 1.5 C to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change</a>.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/temperature-records-shattered-across-the-world-as-tourists-flock-to-experience-the-heat-210038">Temperature records shattered across the world as tourists flock to experience the heat</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On Jan. 9, 2024, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) announced that their <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">analysis confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record since 1850</a>, when humans began burning fossil fuels at a major scale. The global average temperature was 1.48 C warmer than pre-industrial levels and much warmer (0.17 C) than 2016, the previous warmest year.</p>
<p>The map of surface air temperature anomalies around the globe, compared to the 1991–2020 average, shows large geographical variations and that some of the warmest areas are in Canada.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A figure depicting global surface temperature anomalies in 2023." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A figure depicting global surface temperature anomalies in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(C3S/ECMWF)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rising temperatures</h2>
<p>Leading scientists are <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/planet-racing-toward-dead-end-3c-temperature-rise-un-chief-warns-13011891">predicting that 2024 will be even warmer</a> as the global mean temperature continues to rise.</p>
<p>These rising temperatures are leading to more extreme weather events that impact societies around the world and across Canada. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane have continued to increase and reached record levels in 2023, reaching 419 parts-per-million (ppm) of carbon dioxide concentrations, which was 2.4 ppm higher than in 2022.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">How 2023's record heat worsened droughts, floods and bushfires around the world</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The CCCS also noted that, in 2023, many extreme events were recorded across the globe, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/statistically-impossible-heat-extremes-are-here-we-identified-the-regions-most-at-risk-204480">heat waves</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">floods</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/faster-disaster-climate-change-fuels-flash-droughts-intense-downpours-and-storms-213242">droughts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-wildfires-an-area-larger-than-the-netherlands-has-been-burned-so-far-this-year-heres-what-is-causing-them-207577">wildfires</a>.</p>
<p>On Jan. 10, the World Economic Forum published its <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/global-risks-report-2024-live-press-conference/">2024 Global Risks Report</a>, ranking global risks by severity over the next ten years. Extreme weather events are ranked to be the highest risk, leading to loss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss.</p>
<h2>Canada’s unique climate</h2>
<p>Climate warming is <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR_FULLREPORT-EN-FINAL.pdf">not uniform due to a range of factors, including internal climate variability and regional variations</a> in climate feedback and heat uptake.</p>
<p>In general, warming has been strongest at high northern latitudes and stronger over land than oceans. Global average temperature is greatly influenced by the oceans, which cover about 70 per cent of the planet and have large heat capacity, so they warm much slower than land areas.</p>
<p>Since Canada has a large land mass, much of which is located at high northern latitudes, warming across Canada has been about twice the global average and in the Canadian Arctic, the warming has been about three times higher. Loss of snow and sea ice reduces the reflectivity of the surface, resulting in stronger warming of ecosystems and increased absorption of solar radiation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-canadian-courts-are-taking-on-climate-change-220090">How Canadian courts are taking on climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Surface temperatures are <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex">highly linked to the temperatures in the troposphere, which is the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere</a>. </p>
<p>The troposphere includes most of the clouds and weather and varies from 18–20 kilometres in depth at the equator to about six kilometres near the poles. This smaller depth in the Arctic can result in more warming due to the heat energy from solar radiation or other processes.</p>
<h2>Feedback processes</h2>
<p>Enhanced warming for Canada as a whole, and for the Canadian Arctic in particular, is part of a climate phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification.” The climate response to <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/radiative-forcing">radiative forcing</a> from greenhouse gases is determined by subsequent processes and feedback within the climate system. Climate feedback in the Arctic enhance the warming from greenhouse gas forcing.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A figure showing historical observations of annual mean surface temperature with Canada and the Canadian Arctic well-above the global average." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A figure showing historical observations of annual mean surface temperature with Canada and the Canadian Arctic well above the global average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Environment Canada Climate Research Division)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Feedback mechanisms make different contributions to warming, depending on the region of the world. Snow and ice reflect considerable solar energy back to space. When warming melts snow and ice, this causes the now-darker surface to absorb more solar radiation and heat. </p>
<p>Another issue is that atmospheric components radiate energy back to space, cooling the climate somewhat, but in the Arctic, this cooling effect is weaker and there is a relatively larger warming response at higher latitudes. Another factor is that in the Arctic, the increase in clouds enhances warming by trapping heat near the surface. </p>
<h2>Urgent action is needed</h2>
<p>The enhanced rates of warming over Canada and the Canadian Arctic are due to a unique combination of feedback mechanisms.</p>
<p>The year 2023 demonstrated the devastating impacts of the climate extremes that can and will occur in even the best case 1.5 C climate scenario hoped for by the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Canada, and particularly our north, will warm much faster than the global mean. This reality should have the effect of motivating governments at all levels — and citizens — to reduce the historic complacency displayed by most governments around the world.</p>
<p>The time is overdue to take comprehensive and strong actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to fully implement adaptation actions to make our societies and citizens less vulnerable and more resilient.</p>
<p>Through <a href="https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/geographypub/369">enabling communities across Canada to proactively advance climate resilience</a> we can effectively reduce the risk of adverse climate impacts and prevent losses and damages during the extremes that a warming climate will bring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gordon McBean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Canada, and particularly the Canadian Arctic, is warming at a considerably higher rate than the global average. The consequences for Canada could be devastating.
Gordon McBean, Professor Emeritus, Department of Geography and Environment, Western University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/220672
2024-01-09T19:17:25Z
2024-01-09T19:17:25Z
A heatwave in Antarctica totally blew the minds of scientists. They set out to decipher it – and here are the results
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568365/original/file-20240109-23-ijfvqy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3941%2C970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> DM Bergstrom</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate scientists don’t like surprises. It means our deep understanding of how the climate works isn’t quite as complete as we need. But unfortunately, as climate change worsens, surprises and unprecedented events keep happening.</p>
<p>In March 2022, Antarctica experienced an extraordinary heatwave. Large swathes of East Antarctica experienced temperatures up to 40°C (72°F) above normal, shattering temperature records. It was the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL104910">most intense</a> heatwave ever recorded anywhere in the world.</p>
<p>So shocking and rare was the event, it blew the minds of the Antarctic climate science community. A major global research project was launched to unravel the reasons behind it and the damage it caused. A team of 54 researchers, including me, delved into the intricacies of the phenomenon. The team was led by Swiss climatologist Jonathan Wille, and involved experts from 14 countries. The collaboration resulted in two <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/3/JCLI-D-23-0175.1.xml#:%7E:text=At%20the%20peak%20of%20the,possible%20under%20future%20climate%20projections.">groundbreaking papers</a> published today.</p>
<p>The results are alarming. But they provide scientists a deeper understanding of the links between the tropics and Antarctica – and give the global community a chance to prepare for what a warmer world may bring.</p>
<h2>Head-hurting complexity</h2>
<p>The papers tell a complex story that began half a world away from Antarctica. Under <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a020.shtml">La Niña conditions</a>, tropical heat near Indonesia poured into the skies above the Indian Ocean. At the same time, repeated weather troughs pulsing eastwards were generating from southern Africa. These factors combined into a late, Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season.</p>
<p>Between late February and late March 2022, 12 tropical storms had brewed. Five storms revved up to become tropical cyclones, and heat and moisture from some of these cyclones mashed together. A meandering jet stream picked up this air and swiftly transported it vast distances across the planet to Antarctica.</p>
<p>Below Australia, this jet stream also contributed to blocking the eastward passage of a high pressure system. When the tropical air collided with this so-called “blocking high”, it caused the most intense atmospheric river ever observed over East Antarctica. This propelled the tropical heat and moisture southward into the heart of the Antarctic continent. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/like-rivers-in-the-sky-the-weather-system-bringing-floods-to-queensland-will-become-more-likely-under-climate-change-176711">Like rivers in the sky: the weather system bringing floods to Queensland will become more likely under climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Luck was on Antarctica’s side</h2>
<p>The event caused the vulnerable Conger Ice Shelf to <a href="https://theconversation.com/conger-ice-shelf-has-collapsed-what-you-need-to-know-according-to-experts-180077">finally collapse</a>. But the impacts were otherwise not as bad as they could have been. That’s because the heatwave struck in March, the month when Antarctica transitions to its dark, extremely cold winter. If a future heatwave arrives in summer – which is more likely under climate change – the results could be catastrophic.</p>
<p>Despite the heatwave, most inland temperatures stayed below zero. The spike included a new all-time temperature high of -9.4°C (15.1°F) on March 18 near Antarctica’s Concordia Research Station. To understand the immensity of this, consider that the previous March maximum temperature at this location was -27.6°C (-17.68°F). At the heatwave’s peak, 3.3 million square kilometres in East Antarctica – an area about the size of India – was affected by the heatwave.</p>
<p>The impacts included widespread rain and surface melt along coastal areas. But inland, the tropical moisture fell as snow – lots and lots of snow. Interestingly, the weight of the snow offset ice loss in Antarctica for the year. This delivered a temporary reprieve from Antarctica’s contribution to global sea-level rise.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An ice shelf before (left) and after (right) a collapse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568364/original/file-20240109-25-o9q0sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These images, acquired by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites on January 30 2022 (left) and March 21 2022 (right), show the Conger ice shelf before and after the collapse, which was triggered by a shocking heatwave.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.copernicus.eu/en/media/image-day-gallery/collapse-conger-ice-shelf">European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite imagery</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learning from the results</h2>
<p>So what are the lessons here? Let’s begin with the nice bit. The study was made possible by international collaboration across Antarctica’s scientific community, including the open sharing of datasets. This collaboration is a touchstone of the Antarctic Treaty. It serves as a testament to the significance of peaceful international cooperation and should be celebrated. </p>
<p>Less heartwarmingly, the extraordinary heatwave shows how compounding weather events in the tropics can affect the vast Antarctic ice sheet. The heatwave further reduced the extent of sea ice, which was already at record lows. This loss of sea ice was exacerbated this <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastatingly-low-antarctic-sea-ice-may-be-the-new-abnormal-study-warns-212376">year</a> resulting in the lowest summer and winter sea ice ever recorded. It shows how disturbances in one year can compound in later years.</p>
<p>The event also demonstrated how tropical heat can trigger the collapse of unstable ice shelves. Floating ice shelves don’t contribute to global sea-level rise, but they acts as dams to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctic-tipping-points-the-irreversible-changes-to-come-if-we-fail-to-keep-warming-below-2-207410">ice sheets behind them</a>, which do contribute.</p>
<p>This research calculated that such temperature anomalies occur in Antarctica about once a century, but concluded that under climate change, they will occur more frequently. </p>
<p>The findings enable the global community to improve its planning for various scenarios. For example, if a heatwave of similar magnitude hit in summer, how much ice melt would there be? If an atmospheric river hit the <a href="https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-how-its-collapse-could-trigger-global-floods-and-swallow-islands-173940">Doomsday glacier</a> in the West Antarctic, what rate of sea level rise would that trigger? And how can governments across the world <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-moves-and-who-pays-managed-retreat-is-hard-but-lessons-from-the-past-can-guide-us-196038">prepare coastal communities</a> for sea level rise greater than currently calculated?</p>
<p>This research contributes another piece to the complex jigsaw puzzle of climate change. And reminds us all, that delays to action on climate change will raise the price we pay.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/record-smashing-heatwaves-are-hitting-antarctica-and-the-arctic-simultaneously-heres-whats-driving-them-and-how-theyll-impact-wildlife-179659">Record-smashing heatwaves are hitting Antarctica and the Arctic simultaneously. Here’s what’s driving them, and how they’ll impact wildlife</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article has been amended to correct an error in converting a 40°C temperature difference from Celsius to Fahrenheit.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dana M Bergstrom past position was at the Australian Antarctic Division. She is affiliated with the Pure Antarctic Foundation, a groups of scientists and artists interesting in communication science and knowledge to the broader community.</span></em></p>
A heatwave in 2022 redefined scientific expectations of the Antarctic climate. Now the global community must prepare for what a warmer world may bring.
Dana M Bergstrom, Honorary Senior Fellow, University of Wollongong
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/217255
2024-01-04T13:48:42Z
2024-01-04T13:48:42Z
The chickadee in the snowbank: A ‘canary in the coal mine’ for climate change in the Sierra Nevada mountains
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564542/original/file-20231208-19-uw3l7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C148%2C4139%2C2775&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mountain chickadees struggle with snow extremes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Benjamin Sonnenberg</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wet snow pelts my face and pulls against my skis as I climb above 8,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada of eastern California, tugging a sled loaded with batteries, bolts, wire and 40 pounds of sunflower seeds critical to our mountain chickadee research.</p>
<p>As we reach the remote research site, I duck under a tarp and open a laptop. A chorus of identification numbers are shouted back and forth as fellow behavioral ecologist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KfEtp4gAAAAJ&hl=en">Vladimir Pravosudov</a> and I program <a href="https://youtu.be/a69lKv65mZk?feature=shared">“smart” bird feeders</a> for an upcoming experiment.</p>
<p>I have spent the past six years <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PBLRszkAAAAJ&hl=en">monitoring a population of mountain chickadees</a> here, tracking their life cycles and, importantly, their memory, working in a system <a href="https://chickadeecognition.com/">Pravosudov established in 2013</a>. The long, consistent record from this research site has allowed us to observe how chickadees survive in extreme winter snowfall and to identify ecological patterns and changes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A ring of tall, rectangular metal bird feeders mounded high with snow on top." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564534/original/file-20231208-19-4f18vw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Snow piles up on the experiment’s bird feeders. Each chickadee has a radio frequency identification tag that opens its assigned feeder, allowing scientists to track its movements and memory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vladimir Pravosudov</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In recent history, intense winters are often followed by drought years here in the Sierra Nevada and in much of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95979-4">the U.S. West</a>. This teeter-totter pattern has been identified as one of the unexpected symptoms of climate change, and its impact on the chickadees is providing an early warning of the disruptions ahead for the dynamics within these coniferous forest ecosystems. </p>
<p>Our research shows that a mountain chickadee facing deep snow is, to borrow a cliche, like a canary in a coal mine – its survivability tells us about the challenges ahead.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chickadee sits on a man's finger as the two look at each other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564900/original/file-20231211-17-53wkl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564900/original/file-20231211-17-53wkl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564900/original/file-20231211-17-53wkl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564900/original/file-20231211-17-53wkl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564900/original/file-20231211-17-53wkl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564900/original/file-20231211-17-53wkl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564900/original/file-20231211-17-53wkl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author, Benjamin Sonnenberg, and one of his research subjects − a young chickadee with a transponder tag on its leg.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Benjamin Sonnenberg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The extraordinary memory of a chickadee</h2>
<p>As Pravosudov calls out the next identification number, and as my legs slowly get colder and wetter, a charming and chipper “<a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Mountain_Chickadee/sounds#">DEE DEE DEE</a>” chimes down from a nearby tree. How is it that a bird weighing barely more than a few sheets of paper is more comfortable in this storm than I am?</p>
<p>The answer comes down to the chickadees’ incredible spatial cognitive abilities.</p>
<p>Cognition is the processes by which animals acquire, process, store and act on information from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1006/anbe.2000.1606">their environment</a>. It is critical to many species but is often subtle and difficult to measure in nonhuman animals.</p>
<p>Chickadees are food-storing specialists that hide tens of thousands of individual food items throughout the forest under edges of tree bark, or even between pine needles, each fall. Then, they use their specialized spatial memory to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110512-135904">retrieve those food caches</a> in the months to come.</p>
<p>Conditions in the high Sierras can be harsh, and if chickadees can’t remember where their food is, they die.</p>
<p>We measure the spatial memory of chickadees using a classic associative learning task but in a very atypical <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2015.10.015">location</a>. To do this, we hang a circular array of eight feeders equipped with radio-frequency identification and filled with seed in several locations across our <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00257">field site</a>. Birds are tagged with “keys” – transponder tags in leg bands that contain individual identification numbers and allow them to open the doors of their assigned feeders to get a food reward.</p>
<p>The setup allows us to measure the spatial memory performance of individual chickadees, because they have to remember which feeder their key enables them to open. Over eight years, our findings demonstrate that chickadees with better spatial memory ability are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2019.01.006">more likely to survive</a> in the high mountains than those with worse memories. </p>
<p>However, chickadees may be facing increasing challenges that will shape their future in the high mountains. In 2017, a year with record-breaking snow levels, adult chickadees showed the lowest probability of survival <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00265-020-2817-2">ever measured at our site</a>. This exceptionally extreme winter came with recurrent storms containing cold weather and high winds, making it difficult for even the memory savvy chickadees to forage and survive. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, triumphant populations have persisted in high-elevation mountain environments, but their future is becoming uncertain.</p>
<h2>What’s the problem?</h2>
<p>“It’s weather whiplash,” says <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iEEye1UAAAAJ&hl=en">Adrian Harpold</a>, a mountain ecohydrologist. Harpold works to understand variations in climate patterns within forest environments, and one of his field sites lies alongside our chickadee research site. </p>
<p>The Sierra Nevada and other mountain ranges in western North America have been experiencing more <a href="https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/ca/">extreme snow years and drought years</a>, amplified by climate change. Extreme snow linked to global warming might seem counterintuitive, but it’s basic physics. Warmer air can hold more moisture – <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/">about 7% more for every degree Celsius</a> (every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) that temperatures rise. This can result in heavier snowfall when storms strike.</p>
<p><iframe id="VfiF9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VfiF9/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In 2023’s record winter, over 17 feet (5 meters) of snow covered the landscape that our chickadees were using every day. In fact, these intense storms and cold temperatures not only made it difficult for birds to survive the winter but made it almost impossible for them to breed the next summer: 46% of chickadee nests at our higher elevation site failed to produce any offspring. This was likely due to the deep snow that prevented them from finding emerging insects to feed nestlings or even reaching nesting sites at all until July.</p>
<h2>The cascading harms from too much snow</h2>
<p>Even in years of tremendous snowfall, chickadees can still use their finely honed spatial memories to recover food. However, severe storms can shorten their survival odds. And if they do survive the winter, their nesting sites – tree cavities – may be buried under feet of snow in the spring. </p>
<p>It doesn’t matter how smart you are if you can’t reach your nest.</p>
<p>Extreme snow oscillations also affect insects that are critical for feeding chickadee chicks. Limited resources lead to smaller chickadee offspring that are less likely to survive high in the mountains. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tiny baby chickadee sits in a man's hand. It's mouth below a still developing beak is bright yellow." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565552/original/file-20231213-15-r59z40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565552/original/file-20231213-15-r59z40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565552/original/file-20231213-15-r59z40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565552/original/file-20231213-15-r59z40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565552/original/file-20231213-15-r59z40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565552/original/file-20231213-15-r59z40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565552/original/file-20231213-15-r59z40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mountain chickadee chicks can struggle to survive during winters with extreme snow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Benjamin Sonnenberg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Snow cover is good for overwintering insects in most cases, as it provides an insulating blanket that saves them from dying during those freezing months. However, if the snow persists too long into the summer, insects can run out of energy and die before they can emerge, or emerge after chickadees <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12105">really need them</a>. Drought years also can drive insect population decline. </p>
<p>Extremes at both ends of the spectrum are making it harder for chickadees to thrive, and more and more we are seeing oscillations between these extremes.</p>
<p>These compounded effects mean that in some years chickadees simply don’t successfully nest at all. This leads to a decline in chickadee populations in years with worse whiplash – drought followed by high snow on repeat – especially at high elevations. This is especially concerning, as many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187">mountain-dwelling avian species are forecasted to move up in elevation</a> to escape warming temperatures, which may turn out to be hazardous. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Eight little chickadees in a circle in a wooden box, their tails all together in the center to keep their bodies warm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564540/original/file-20231208-17-vwxtfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564540/original/file-20231208-17-vwxtfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564540/original/file-20231208-17-vwxtfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564540/original/file-20231208-17-vwxtfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564540/original/file-20231208-17-vwxtfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564540/original/file-20231208-17-vwxtfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564540/original/file-20231208-17-vwxtfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Baby chickadees stay warm inside a wooden box.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Benjamin Sonnenberg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>Chickadees may be portrayed as radiating tranquil beauty on holiday cards, but realistically, these loud, round ruffians are tough survivors of harsh winter environments in northern latitudes.</p>
<p>Our long-term research following these chickadees provides a unique window into the relationships between winter snow, chickadee populations and the biological community around them, such as <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-007-9358-9">coniferous forests</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2023989118">insect</a> populations. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a69lKv65mZk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Benjamin Sonnenberg and Vladimir Pravosudov show how the feeders work to test birds’ memories in a video about the early stages of their research.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These relationships illustrate that climate change is a more complicated story than just the temperature climb – and that its whiplash and cascading effects can destabilize ecosystems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217255/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Sonnenberg receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>
These tiny songbirds have extraordinary memories for the tens of thousands of spots where they hide food. But that doesn’t help when heavy snow blocks their access.
Benjamin Sonnenberg, Ph.D. Candidate in Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Biology, University of Nevada, Reno
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/220027
2023-12-26T17:16:54Z
2023-12-26T17:16:54Z
How to jump-start your New Year with cold weather running
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567208/original/file-20231222-29-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=494%2C8%2C5497%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Checking the weather frequently can serve to preemptively avoid injury pitfalls from extreme cold or slippery surfaces.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pexels)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-to-jump-start-your-new-year-with-cold-weather-running" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As 2024 approaches, many people look to begin the year with resolutions to become more fit. Some people find it challenging to get enthusiastic about outdoor exercise during the winter. However, don’t discount the joys of running in a winter wonderland. It’s accessible, available to all and doesn’t involve gym fees or expensive equipment.</p>
<h2>Health benefits</h2>
<p>First off, exercising has immense physical health benefits such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1210/jc.2014-2440">increased heart and blood vessel health, increased metabolism</a>, favorable <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fhealthcare11162348">body composition</a> and enhanced immune function. <a href="https://www.miracle-recreation.com/blog/benefits-of-outdoor-exercise/?lang=can">Regular exercise can also help with mental health including reducing depression, anxiety and improving overall mood</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/exercise-can-help-prevent-and-treat-mental-health-problems-and-taking-it-outside-adds-another-boost-to-those-benefits-202343">Exercise can help prevent and treat mental health problems, and taking it outside adds another boost to those benefits</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In fact, there is some recent evidence to show that outdoor exercise may provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26093-2">additional improvements in well-being</a>. These improvements could also contribute to combating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09291010802067171">seasonal affective disorders</a> during the winter months and help to combat a slew of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2022-106644">seasonal illnesses</a>. So, what can we do to jump in and reap these health benefits in winter? </p>
<h2>Motivation 101</h2>
<p>Before you start running, think about what motivates you. <a href="https://theconversation.com/got-health-goals-research-based-tips-for-adopting-and-sticking-to-new-healthy-lifestyle-behaviours-173740">New year’s resolutions</a> are a great start, but there needs to be a consistent motivator — something that won’t <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/new-years-resolution-janine-hubbard-1.5412777">go away by February</a> — to get you out and running when the weather forecast begins with a minus sign. </p>
<p>If you’re looking for motivation, <a href="https://blog.mercy.com/staying-motivated-exercise-during-cold-weather/">start with these tips for pumping yourself up</a>. Once you’ve found your motivation, lacing up and taking the first (and next) steps, consistently, won’t be as tough. Here’s a few helpful hints to make that winter run a bit easier and much more enjoyable. </p>
<h2>Getting started</h2>
<p>The biggest injury concerns to cold weather running are slippery conditions and <a href="https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/frostbite">frostbite</a>. With that in mind, make sure you’re set with the right equipment. When out in the winter, think <strong>COLD</strong>. This is not only an assessment of the weather. <a href="https://lowellstrauss.com/stay-warm-with-c-o-l-d">It’s an acronym that stands for</a>: </p>
<ul>
<li><strong>CLEAN:</strong> Keeping your gear (clothing and shoes) clean, allows them to work properly. Mud and slush on your hands and feet can make you lose heat quickly.<br></li>
<li>Avoid <strong>OVERHEATING</strong>: If it’s your first time exercising in the cold, you might think you have to put on a snowsuit. However, with poorly chosen outfits, you run the risk of overheating.<br></li>
<li><strong>LAYERED</strong> clothing: Wearing a fitted and moisture-wicking base layer, a light but insulating middle layer, and a breathable, but wind- and water-repellent jacket will give you the best of all worlds. Cover the parts of your body most likely to be exposed such as your hands, neck, and face with running gloves, a neck gaiter or scarf, and toque to keep these sites warm. Consider running with a waist bag or backpack, to carry these items along with your phone for safety.<br></li>
<li>Keep your clothing <strong>DRY</strong>: Breathable, but wind and water repellant clothing will keep your clothes from becoming too damp with either sweat or the environmental conditions, which could suck your heat away.<br></li>
</ul>
<p>Finally, understand that clothing is a matter of personal preference. As a coach of local, national and international (Olympic) track and field athletes, Kurt Downes, co-author of this story, has coached athletes who run in shorts with mittens and others who can barely move with so many layers on. Experiment with what works for you, and makes you comfortable. </p>
<h2>Tips for success and safety</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A runner's shoes standing in snow" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567214/original/file-20231222-23-bsi02m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567214/original/file-20231222-23-bsi02m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567214/original/file-20231222-23-bsi02m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567214/original/file-20231222-23-bsi02m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567214/original/file-20231222-23-bsi02m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567214/original/file-20231222-23-bsi02m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567214/original/file-20231222-23-bsi02m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Keeping your gear (clothing and shoes) clean allows them to work properly. Mud and slush on your hands and feet can make you lose heat quickly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Make sure you have a clearly defined goal. Do you want to increase fitness, burn calories, enjoy some fresh air or just move your body? Whatever your goal, make it something that is <a href="https://health.clevelandclinic.org/smart-fitness-goals">short-term, sweet and attainable</a>. Leave room to adjust and scale up as you crush those running goals. </p>
<p><strong>Schedule and plan:</strong> Find a slot of time that works best for you and block it out. In winter, it is especially important to plan your runs. My sound advice is to start slow and follow a gradual progression. </p>
<p>Don’t skip ahead despite how well you may be doing. Think about your current level of fitness: you might set out with the intention of running 10 kilometres, but if you’re five kilometres from home and get tired or twist an ankle, the long walk (or hobble) home increases the risks of cold injuries like <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/staysafe/hypothermia.html">hypothermia and frostbite</a>, and may also mean you’re returning in the dark. </p>
<p><strong>Connect:</strong> Get to nature. Find a local well-lit and travelled trail, a riverfront, a park or take to your neighbourhood streets. Grab a partner, connect with people in your workplace, download a running app or join a running club. Meet at a local spot or pick a hang out spot after your running session. Make it a weekly social event. </p>
<p><strong>Weather check:</strong> Lastly for those of us who have smartphones connected to our hip, have a solid weather app on your home screen. Checking the weather frequently can serve to preemptively avoid injury pitfalls from extreme cold or slippery surfaces. </p>
<h2>Injury prevention</h2>
<p>Be mindful of the times that you head out for runs; if possible, find a time during sunlight hours. It will add a bit of warmth, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289%2Fehp.116-a160">positively affect mood and increase vitamin D production</a> for bone health and immune function. Run in well-lit areas and wear bright colours so you’re visible to others, especially if running on the road.</p>
<p><strong>Fix your eyes forward:</strong> Focus on what’s coming ahead. It’s easy to get into the zone and lose yourself in thoughts or your favourite tune, but judging the terrain ahead is important to prevent a misplaced step, a twisted ankle <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKZj2W2YyKY">or a slip</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Stride wise:</strong> First, focus on settling into a rhythm at a fixed tempo. This will allow you to create a stride pattern that’s neither too short nor too long to keep on moving. Shortening your stride length will provide more stability when ice and snow are present (this is not the time to work on an Olympic-level stride pattern). If you can’t avoid a snowy or icy patch, it’s probably best to stop and walk around it. </p>
<p><strong>Breathing:</strong> Check your breath. The effects of cold exposure can often impede normal physiological function. Specifically, inhaling cold dry air during physical activity can have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2012-091296">adverse health effects on breathing</a>. Especially true for those with compromised respiratory systems or those predisposed to asthma. </p>
<p><strong>Hydration:</strong> Even though it may not seem like an immediate need, it’s important to be well hydrated before and throughout your workouts. Cold and snow don’t mean the air is wet (much of the arctic is actually <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/cold-desert">classified as a desert</a> because of the lack of precipitation). Also, your body generates a lot of heat, even more when you’re exercising, causing heat loss from sweat. </p>
<p>If you’re just getting started with winter running, know that there are plenty of others out there too. In cities across North America, runners kick-start their year by hitting the streets to cover five-kilometre and 10-kilometre distances <a href="https://www.newyearsrun.com/">on New Year’s Day</a>, which could be a great inspiration to jump-start your winter exercising. Remember, as you get started, make a plan to do it safely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kurt Michael Downes is affiliated with The Border City Athletics Club, a not-for-profit athletics club.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Milne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Winter running has all the health benefits of aerobic exercise, as well as fresh air. However, be aware of the specific safety and injury-prevention concerns that come with cold weather.
Kurt Michael Downes, PhD Student, Kinesiology, University of Windsor
Kevin Milne, Associate professor, Kinesiology, University of Windsor
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218257
2023-12-08T00:14:27Z
2023-12-08T00:14:27Z
What does El Niño do to the weather in your state?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564399/original/file-20231207-23-isxdk1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C1702%2C6451%2C4787&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/surface-planet-earth-viewed-satellite-focused-1609386070">titoOnz, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You’ve probably heard El Niño brings hot and dry weather to the eastern states, but what about the rest of Australia? Are we all in for a scorcher this summer? </p>
<p>El Niño is what scientists call a <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/overview/climate-system/australian-climate-influences/">climate driver</a>. But it’s just one of many. </p>
<p>These climate drivers control year-to-year variations in the weather. Some years are hotter and drier, while others are cooler and wetter. </p>
<p>Australia is particularly prone to weather whiplash because our continent is buffeted by climate drivers to our north, south, east and west. The dominant driver in your state may be one of the lesser-known influences. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iVhi1wq2sTY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Understanding Climate Drivers (Bureau of Meteorology)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>East: El Niño Southern Oscillation</h2>
<p>The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the resident climate driver in the Pacific Ocean and the driver with the biggest influence over Australian weather. Differences in sea surface temperatures and winds across the Pacific determine whether we swing towards El Niño (the boy) or La Niña (the girl).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso">During the El Niño phase</a>, sea surface temperatures near South America are warmer than normal and they are cooler than normal off the coast of eastern Australia. Additionally, trade winds that blow from east to west across the Pacific weaken. </p>
<p>El Niño brings hotter daytime temperatures, but often <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=History">cooler nights</a>. That’s because reduced cloud cover allows more heat to escape into space overnight. So the same process that increases the chances of heatwaves can also raise the <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-weather/historical-frost-and-heat-maps-south-west-land-division">risk of frost</a> in Western Australia, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria.</p>
<p>Australia as a whole is typically drier during an El Niño event. In the tropical regions, El Niño can delay the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml">onset of the monsoon and reduce the likelihood of tropical cyclones</a>. In the southern states, the hot and dry conditions increase the chance of intense bushfires.</p>
<p>La Niña is the opposite phase. Waters off eastern Australia are warmer than usual, increasing the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=History&enso-impacts=La-Ni%C3%B1a-impacts">chance of tropical cyclones</a> and an earlier start to the monsoon for WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland.</p>
<p>So what does El Niño do to the weather in your state? Hover over your state in the interactive map to find out. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1008" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1008/7f37ae91389db072906b320ffd54d0fefd840c0d/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-an-el-nino-so-why-has-australia-been-so-wet-219111">We're in an El Niño – so why has Australia been so wet?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>West: Indian Ocean Dipole</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=iod">Indian Ocean Dipole</a> is like ENSO’s Indian Ocean cousin. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is declared when ocean temperatures near Africa are warmer than normal and ocean temperatures off the coast of Sumatra are cooler than usual.</p>
<p>A positive dipole tends to bring warmer and drier conditions, particularly to western and central Australia. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is the reverse and is associated with wetter than normal weather and an increase in <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/why-more-clouds-can-mean-less-rain-in-australia">northwest cloudbands</a>.</p>
<h2>North: Madden-Julian Oscillation</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden-Julian Oscillation</a> is a pulse of storms that start in the Indian Ocean, travel over Northern Australia and Indonesia and die in the Pacific Ocean. Ahead of the pulse, the air sinks, causing sunny and dry weather. Under the pulse is high storm activity and typically heavy rainfall.</p>
<p>We describe the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on whether the pulse of storms is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/">active or inactive</a> and where the storm activity is located on its path between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. As well as causing rainfall, the Madden-Julian Oscillation can control the timing of the monsoon onset and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=tc">tropical cyclone formation</a>.</p>
<h2>South: Southern Annular Mode</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=sam">Southern Annular Mode</a> controls the north and south position of the westerly winds that whizz around the globe in the Southern Ocean. When the winds are further north than usual, we call this the negative phase. But when the westerly wind move towards Antarctica, we call this the positive phase.</p>
<p>The phase of the Southern Annular Mode <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1370">affects how many weather systems</a>, like cold fronts, make landfall over southern Australia. A positive mode may also draw tropical moist air south, which happened in 2022 during the extensive flooding over eastern Australia.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1730116714686562507"}"></div></p>
<h2>Climate drivers control the odds, but not the result</h2>
<p>These four key climate drivers affect the weather on average (over months and seasons), but they do not dictate the exact day-to-day weather we experience. As the Gippsland region of Victoria <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/05/victoria-floods-flooding-warnings-gippsland-region-flood-and-fires-evacuation">saw in October</a>, heavy rainfall can still occur during an El Niño. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Australia showing the difference from normal rainfall during October 2023, with a large wet patch around Gippsland, Victoria." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Difference from normal rainfall during October 2023, showing defined wet area around Gippsland, Victoria surrounded by drier conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Climate drivers are like a football coach. They can select the best players and develop ingenious strategies, but that doesn’t guarantee a win every time. </p>
<p>Players can get injured on the field or simply have a bad game. These uncontrollable factors are challenging to predict and may change the result from what we would expect. Scientists call this stochasticity. The climate drivers are the football coach, but the day-to-day weather systems are the players.</p>
<p>The Bureau of Meteorology <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">releases an update</a> on all of these drivers every two weeks. The update explains which drivers are currently active and the forecast for the next few weeks.</p>
<p>So, if you are wondering why the weather is cooler during summer, or it’s raining in the middle of the dry season, perhaps take a look at which driver is steering Australia’s weather at the moment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberley Reid receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>
El Niño looms large as we head into the Australian summer. But can everyone expect hot and dry weather? What drives the weather in your state?
Kimberley Reid, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/215070
2023-12-07T23:43:16Z
2023-12-07T23:43:16Z
As the temperature rises, so do rates of domestic violence
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557389/original/file-20231103-17-6s620e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5982%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/heat-wave-extreme-sun-sky-background-2313962169">DStockgraphy/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Large <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/06/australia-heatwave-weather-temperatures-nsw-wa-qld-sa-nt">parts of Australia</a> are currently in the grip of a heatwave, and climate change means we’re in for more <a href="https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/impacts-climate-change/weather-and-oceans/heatwaves">frequent and intense heat events</a> into the future.</p>
<p>We know extreme heat can pose <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-heat-and-health">health risks</a>, especially for vulnerable groups. But increasingly, research is highlighting a relationship between <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1235367">hot temperatures and violence</a>. </p>
<p>Our team analysed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/12265934.2023.2209544">close to one million</a> reported incidents of domestic, non-domestic and sexual assaults over a 13 year period (2006-2018) in New South Wales. We examined trends related to season, temperature, and where the incidents occurred (inside or outside).</p>
<p>We found violence increased with warmer weather. But the effect of heat was greater on domestic violence than other types of violent crime. The reasons, and solutions, are complex. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/car-accidents-drownings-violence-hotter-temperatures-will-mean-more-deaths-from-injury-129628">Car accidents, drownings, violence: hotter temperatures will mean more deaths from injury</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Hot weather, hot tempers</h2>
<p>Rates of assault were higher in summer than in winter in most areas, except for a few places with snow tourism. Overall, domestic, non-domestic and sexual violence rose as temperatures increased from cool to warm. </p>
<p>On extreme heat days, non-domestic assaults outdoors declined, potentially because people move indoors seeking respite from the heat. However, domestic violence rates continued to increase with temperature, both inside and outside. </p>
<p>Sexual assaults both indoors and outdoors also increased in warm temperatures, but declined or plateaued in hot weather. </p>
<p><iframe id="R4H67" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/R4H67/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe id="DkwG8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DkwG8/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Why are violence and hot weather linked?</h2>
<p>You’ve probably experienced the uncomfortable effects of hot weather, such as sweating, dehydration, lethargy and restless sleep. These effects can make people feel irritated, which may increase the likelihood of <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1976-22279-001">acting more aggressively</a>.</p>
<p>Also, behavioural changes associated with hot weather may create more opportunities and motivation to act aggressively. For example, on warm and longer summer days we may be more likely to go out and socialise or <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8747501/">drink more alcohol</a>. </p>
<p>In extreme heat, we may retreat inside if we can, where there’s respite from the sun and potentially air conditioning. Given this, we might expect to see less of an association between violence and hot weather indoors. But our research found this wasn’t generally the case.</p>
<p>Domestic violence is more often experienced by women, at the hands of a family member or partner who they <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/domestic-violence/family-domestic-and-sexual-violence#risk">live with</a>. During extreme heat, offenders and victims may not have practical ways to avoid the heat. The house may remain hot without <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4602.0.55.001">access to air conditioning</a>, or it may be <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1071/HE11413">too expensive to run</a>. </p>
<p>Violence is also often said to occur “<a href="https://hrcak.srce.hr/237620">behind closed doors</a>”, where there are fewer witnesses to intervene, and potentially more social stressors. As an example, COVID lockdowns were often associated with higher rates of <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/special/special-11">intimate partner abuse</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman looking out a window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557391/original/file-20231103-17-5qmz9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557391/original/file-20231103-17-5qmz9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557391/original/file-20231103-17-5qmz9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557391/original/file-20231103-17-5qmz9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557391/original/file-20231103-17-5qmz9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557391/original/file-20231103-17-5qmz9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557391/original/file-20231103-17-5qmz9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Domestic violence rose in hotter weather.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/silhouette-woman-trapped-home-violent-man-1727153176">Yannick Martinez/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One limitation of our study is that we used outdoor ambient air temperature to represent heat exposure, regardless of where the crime occurred. However, heat will vary significantly by location on a given day. For example, an indoor location like a bakery or factory could be hotter than outside at a shady park, and may remain hot regardless of the weather. </p>
<h2>What about online?</h2>
<p>Our team was interested to know whether temperature-related aggression can be seen outside of crime statistics, so we considered how anger is expressed on Twitter (now known as X). </p>
<p>In a previous study, we analysed emotions captured from more than 74 million tweets, looking for words or phrases that expressed <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0013916520937455">rage or anger</a>. </p>
<p>We found that generally the number of angry tweets (and in fact, tweets in general) decreased as temperatures moved from cool to warm. This may be partly because we get off our screens and enjoy the weather.</p>
<p>However, in very hot weather that trend plateaued or even reversed, suggesting angry tweets may rise in extreme heat. Similarly, studies have found <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00173-5/fulltext">online hate speech</a> increases in extreme heat.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man outdoors on his smartphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557392/original/file-20231103-15-alzfdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557392/original/file-20231103-15-alzfdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557392/original/file-20231103-15-alzfdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557392/original/file-20231103-15-alzfdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557392/original/file-20231103-15-alzfdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557392/original/file-20231103-15-alzfdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557392/original/file-20231103-15-alzfdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hotter temperatures are also associated with aggression online.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/middle-age-greyhaired-man-using-smartphone-1828847783">Krakenimages.com/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reducing inequalities</h2>
<p>Neither heat nor violence affect everyone equally. Both are influenced by social determinants of health.</p>
<p>Domestic violence is more likely to occur in <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/when-violence-hits-home-how-economics-and-neighborhood-play-role-research">disadvantaged areas</a>. Likewise, lower socioeconomic populations tend to have <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3b99/meta">higher heat exposure</a>. This may be due to the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32461547/">urban heat island effect</a> (where a city experiences warmer temperatures than surrounding rural areas), less access to air conditioning or private cars, or working outdoors. </p>
<p>While the drivers behind temperature-related violence are complex, there are things we can do. First, we need to address the big issues <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2784629/">relating to domestic violence</a> such as cultural norms, <a href="https://www.respect.gov.au/">attitudes</a> and legal provisions.</p>
<p>In heatwaves, we can provide inexpensive and accessible cool areas for those who need them. So-called “<a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/informit.20220606068145">heat refuges</a>” offer a safe space for people to linger, like at a library, swimming pool or community centre, and provide air conditioning, cold water and other facilities. </p>
<p>Increasing the amount of green space in cities could have a dual benefit. More urban greening is associated with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717301754">lower urban heat island effect</a>, and studies have also shown a link between more green space and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/24/5119">less violent crime</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-is-landing-more-australians-in-hospital-and-heat-is-the-biggest-culprit-216440">Extreme weather is landing more Australians in hospital – and heat is the biggest culprit</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our findings add to growing evidence that shows <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/13/7855">extreme weather events</a> are <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abb266;">associated with</a> a range of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412021001586">poor health</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-020-03887-z">social outcomes</a>.</p>
<p>The effects of extreme weather in our communities demands more and stronger action on climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault. You can also text the service on 0458 737 732.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Beggs is affiliated with the Lancet Countdown.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heather R. Stevens and Petra Graham do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Hot temperatures seem to lead to aggression, both in real life and online.
Heather R. Stevens, Researcher - Environmental Science, Macquarie University
Paul Beggs, Associate Professor and Environmental Health Scientist, Macquarie University
Petra Graham, Associate Professor, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Macquarie University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218397
2023-11-27T20:33:32Z
2023-11-27T20:33:32Z
Québec’s hardwood trees could move north. Here’s how that could affect the boreal forest landscape
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561078/original/file-20231101-23-x790gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C2%2C994%2C663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The combined impact of increasing temperatures (2 to 8°C by 2100) and forest development in the mixed boreal forest could modify the growth and distribution of temperate species.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Québec, there are two distinct types of forest: the northern temperate forest in the south, and the boreal forest in the north.</p>
<p>These forest ecosystems provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf3903">many different and essential services</a> to the overall functioning of the planet, and to our economy. For example, the storage of large quantities of atmospheric carbon and habitats for many species, as well as a supply of raw materials to the wood industry, which is a pillar of the economies of both Québec and Canada.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>As a doctoral student at Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), I work on the colonization potential of sugar maple, yellow birch and red maple north of their range, in the mixed boreal forest. These three emblematic species of North American forests are of capital economic importance (for lumber, manufacture of plywood, pulp, or maple syrup for sugar maple) and contribute to the diversity of Québec’s forests.</p>
<h2>The mixed forest, between the temperate and boreal biomes</h2>
<p>The mixed forest is located in the transition zone (ecotone) between the boreal and temperate forests. </p>
<p>It refers to the region where these two forests meet, creating an area in which the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Quebecs-vegetation-zones-subzones-and-bioclimatic-domains_fig16_269095315">characteristics of these two types of forest intermingle</a>. This amalgam is characterized by a complex coexistence between temperate hardwood species and the conifers typical of the boreal forest. </p>
<p>It is in this ecotone that temperate hardwoods reach the northern limit of their distribution. </p>
<h2>An uncertain future for the mixed boreal forest</h2>
<p>The combined impact of rising temperatures (2-8°C by 2100) and forest management in the boreal mixedwood forest could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16014">alter the growth and distribution of temperate species</a>. The ecosystem services provided by these species could then be altered.</p>
<p>This transformation could be profound. Temperate hardwood species could migrate northwards and even become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06525">dominant species</a> in boreal mixedwood <a href="https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/terms/read/1106">stands</a>.</p>
<p>Such a change in the forest composition of the boreal mixedwood forest could have major consequences for the forest industry, natural disturbance regimes and the biodiversity associated with the dominant tree species in the forests. However, there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the factors that influence the successful establishment and growth of temperate hardwoods in the boreal mixedwood forest. </p>
<p>In order to get a complete picture of the future of the boreal mixedwood forest, it is essential to understand how the growth and establishment of temperate hardwoods within mixedwood stands is influenced by factors such as climate, soil characteristics and competitive interactions between trees.</p>
<h2>Hardwoods in the mixed boreal forest?</h2>
<p>As part of my doctoral work, we attempted to model competitive interactions between trees by taking into account the effects of climate change on their growth. This model simulates each tree in a stand. Each year, trees grow, reproduce and eventually die. The growth of each tree depends on the light the tree receives, competition for nutrients and space, and climate.</p>
<p>In our study, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06525">published in the journal <em>Ecography</em></a>, we used this model to evaluate the capacity of temperate deciduous trees to establish themselves within mixed species stands in the boreal forest. To do this, we modelled typical mixed stands of the boreal forest, then integrated temperate deciduous species into these, giving the trees the opportunity to colonize these stands.</p>
<p>We showed that the three species of temperate hardwoods could colonize the stand. Yellow birch had a better colonization capacity, with its more numerous and lighter seeds which can disperse further. Red maple and sugar maple had similar abilities when it came to colonizing boreal mixed stands. However, sugar maple showed a better ability to colonize older forests, due to its superior growth under a closed canopy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="snowy forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557904/original/file-20231106-27-ukk16g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Temperate hardwood species could migrate north and even become dominant species within the forest’s stands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The establishment capacity of temperate hardwoods in the boreal mixed forest was higher in the youngest stands, as well as in stands after clear-cutting. Therefore, forest management and forest fires, by rejuvenating boreal mixed forest landscapes, could accelerate the northward migration of temperate tree species.</p>
<p>Increased temperatures due to climate change are not expected to increase the ability of temperate hardwoods to colonize boreal mixedwood forest stands, either in the current climate or under high climate forcing scenarios. This means that climate would not be a factor influencing the northern limit of distribution of temperate hardwood species, and therefore, that climate change should not have an immediate effect on the northern distribution of temperate hardwoods.</p>
<p>The soil types of the boreal mixed forest could, however, be a limit to the growth of temperate hardwoods. In clay soils, the growth of red maple and sugar maple would be poor and would not allow them to be competitive with the species already present, which tolerate clay very well.</p>
<p>Factors governing tree growth such as climate, soil and competition interact together and can <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfr-2019-0319">make predictions about the future distribution of different tree species very complex</a>.</p>
<h2>Both positive and negative effects</h2>
<p>The establishment of temperate hardwoods in the boreal mixed forest could increase the complexity and diversity in stands. This could strengthen the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13257">resistance and resilience of the boreal mixed forest to disturbances</a>.</p>
<p>The presence of temperate deciduous trees in mixed boreal forests could, in particular, attenuate spruce budworm epidemics, because the proportion of fir and spruce trees would be lower and these species would be <a href="http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s004420050441">more dispersed in the stands</a>.</p>
<p>The establishment of temperate deciduous trees will cause an increase in the proportion of deciduous trees in the landscape. This phenomenon, known as enfoliation, has been observed in the mixed boreal forest for the last 100 years and is mainly due to forest management. This envelopment could make epidemics of <a href="https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/663c3ba7-9d26-4243-a6f4-de6866d1685b">forest livery</a> more severe. This defoliating insect attacks deciduous trees and especially aspen, paper birch and sugar maple.</p>
<p>Finally, wildfire regimes could be modified by the differences in flammability of hardwoods and conifers. The presence of temperate deciduous trees, which are less flammable than conifers, could lengthen fire cycles. This positive effect will, however, be associated with a major challenge for the forestry industry which manages the mixed boreal forest, since the industry is currently focused mainly on conifers.</p>
<h2>We can’t stop there</h2>
<p>Further modelling studies are needed to explore the impact of other factors that may influence the ability of temperate hardwoods to colonize boreal mixedwood forest.</p>
<p>In particular, we can think of the impact of soil and mycorrhizae (symbiosis between the roots of plants and fungi) on the germination and growth of trees, but also the effect of weather phenomena, such as late frosts, which can affect the survival and growth of young temperate trees.</p>
<p>Additionally, landscape scale modeling would be beneficial in order to be able to consider the topography of the land, a potentially influential factor on the ability of temperate hardwoods to establish further north.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218397/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabio Gennaretti received funding from the Canada Research Chair in Dendroecology and Dendroclimatology (CRC-2021-00368) and from the Ministère des Ressources Naturelles et des Forêts (contract no. 142332177-D), and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Discovery Grant no. RGPIN-2021-03553 and Alliance Grant no. ALLRP 557148-20, obtained in partnership with the MRNF and Resolute Forest Products).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxence Soubeyrand ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>
Research shows that the distribution of temperate hardwoods (sugar maple, red maple and yellow birch) could be shifting northward, which would have serious consequences for the boreal forest.
Maxence Soubeyrand, Doctorant en écologie forestière, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)
Fabio Gennaretti, Professeur en sciences forestière, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216739
2023-11-23T01:19:08Z
2023-11-23T01:19:08Z
Our new high-resolution climate models are a breakthrough in understanding Australia’s future
<p>Australia’s climate, already marked by <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/science-policy-and-analysis/reports-and-publications/risks-australia-three-degrees-c-warmer-world">extremes with bushfires, heatwaves, storms and coastal flooding</a>, is only set to worsen with the <a href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/941/2021/">growing effects of climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Disasters like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Black Summer bushfires</a> of 2019–20 and the 2022 eastern Australian floods are likely to become <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">more frequent and intense</a>. </p>
<p>If carbon emissions continue at the current rate, climate change may make Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">unbearable for future generations</a>. It’s a confronting outlook, and we need better tools to understand future impacts so we can adapt to them. </p>
<p>In our new research, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003548">published in the journal Earth’s Future</a>, we have “downscaled” the latest global climate models to a 10-kilometre resolution across Australia. Having such a high resolution significantly enhances current global projections, with great improvements in projecting temperature, precipitation and extreme weather patterns for Australia. </p>
<p>Our new dataset is very useful. It provides scientists, policymakers and stakeholders with a valuable tool for comprehensively evaluating the potential impacts of climate change across Australia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/every-australian-will-be-touched-by-climate-change-so-lets-start-a-national-conversation-about-how-well-cope-196934">Every Australian will be touched by climate change. So let's start a national conversation about how we'll cope</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why do we need high-resolution climate projections?</h2>
<p>Climate models are key tools for understanding future climate risks. Current global climate models have a coarse resolution of 50–200km. This makes them <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000426">less suitable for local adaptation</a>. Regional climate models add <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.8">locally relevant details</a>, such as mountainous, coastal and urban regions.</p>
<p>For example, a high-resolution photo of a city lets you zoom in on the small details, such as people and vehicles. Likewise, high-resolution climate projections enable climate scientists to better simulate specific details such as storms and urban heat. They also help to track weather events like tropical cyclones – a meaningful refinement to understand local impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>This is why the Australian Royal Commission has recommended that future natural disaster risks are informed by <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/natural-disasters">high-resolution climate projections</a>. </p>
<p>High-resolution models also match up much better with real-world local geographical features such as mountains. This is important, as mountains play a role in both temperature and rainfall. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing a detailed map versus a blurry one" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558275/original/file-20231108-17-y2ej8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Here, you can see how the level of real-world detail improves in our regional, high-resolution model compared to a global one. For every global model region (also known as ‘grid cell’), our regional models produce 150 different estimates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ralph Trancoso</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the new projections show for Australia</h2>
<p>To produce high-resolution projections for Australia, we tapped into the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained/">most up-to-date climate model dataset</a> that’s coordinated by climate scientists globally. This is known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP6 for short.</p>
<p>The full CMIP6 dataset comprises hundreds of model simulations. As climate modelling is computationally expensive, we can’t downscale them all. Instead, we evaluated them to find the models that best represent Australia’s climate but also retain nearly a full range of future climate impacts.</p>
<p>This resulted in a set of 15 downscaled models and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">three emissions scenarios</a> representing low, intermediate and high emissions trajectories in the future.</p>
<p>Ours is the largest downscaled set of projections produced for Australia to date. The range of emissions scenarios is important for studies evaluating the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>We evaluated our high-resolution projections by comparing their historical component (that is, the period between 1980 and 2010) to records measured at weather stations around Australia over that time. We examined temperature and precipitation (rain and snow), including their distribution, annual cycles and extremes.</p>
<p>Overall, we found our downscaling produced major improvements in how accurate the projections were. This was especially true for minimum temperature, which is important for looking at the impacts of heatwaves – high night-time temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/heatwaves">heat stress</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33195962/">even deaths</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A high up view of an azure ocean coast right next to a highrise city with mountains in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560923/original/file-20231121-4588-qj18u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projections are particularly improved in coastal, urban and mountain regions – where the Australian population is concentrated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-gold-coast-queensland-australia-142759546">zstock/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also looked at whether our models accurately represented day-to-day observations – that is, how well they matched up with actual weather recordings. The biggest difference came when looking at extremes (either very high or very low values), with a 142% improvement in representing minimum temperatures and an 87% improvement in representing winter maximum temperature. </p>
<p>Our models also worked well for precipitation. Predicting the number of days with no rain, as well as heavy rain days, is usually tricky for most models. Downscaling improved representation of dry days by 46% and extreme rain by 45%. This means we’ll have more reliable models when examining impacts from events like floods and droughts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/faster-disaster-climate-change-fuels-flash-droughts-intense-downpours-and-storms-213242">Faster disaster: climate change fuels 'flash droughts', intense downpours and storms</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How will this be useful?</h2>
<p>The new projections provide more accurate data across Australia, but particularly in the mountains and densely populated coastal areas. This is important for disaster planning, preparedness and response. For example, in South East Queensland the improvements reached an impressive 150%.</p>
<p>The new data is not only more accurate, but offers a significantly clearer picture of the climatic future for densely populated regions. We can now have future climate information for shires and towns – an important step towards adaptation.</p>
<p>Downscaled climate projections based on the previous global suite of models have been used in Australia to understand <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720340432">future heatwaves</a>, <a href="https://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0035/339299/QFES-Severe-Wind-Hazard-Exec-Summary.pdf">severe wind</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7302">drought</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170820306941">flood risks</a>. </p>
<p>Our new high-resolution dataset, based on the latest global models, provides scientists and stakeholders with a solid ground to support adaptation policies, inform communities, and build resilience and preparedness for future climate hazards in Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ralph leads the Queensland Future Climate Science Program - a collaborative program between the University of Queensland and Queensland's Department of Environment and Science undertaking applied climate science to support climate adaptation and natural disaster preparedness. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jozef Syktus is the Director of the University of Queensland and Department of Environment and Science (DES) collaborative research program. He was a science leader of the projects contributing the CSIRO Mk3.6 climate model simulations to the CMIP5 archive and dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 for Queensland. He led the development of the UQ-DES CMIP6 downscale projections for Australia. Jozef received funding from ARC, Queensland Government and CSIRO</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Chapman is a member of the Climate Projections and Services Team at the Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Government. </span></em></p>
Global climate models don’t let us zoom in on the fine details. A new set of high-resolution climate models for Australia is solving this problem.
Ralph Trancoso, Adjunct Associate Professor in Climate Change, The University of Queensland
Jozef Syktus, Professorial Research Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland
Sarah Chapman, Visiting Research Fellow, University of Leeds
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216933
2023-11-13T21:21:44Z
2023-11-13T21:21:44Z
Québec’s summer 2023 wildfires were the most devastating in 50 years. Is the worst yet to come?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557286/original/file-20231027-23-ya6je6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C2032%2C1066&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Forest fires were mostly started by lightning. Their spread was then exacerbated by a lack of precipitation and abnormally high temperatures.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Victor Danneyrolles)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After a summer of exceptional wildfires, the return of cooler temperatures and snowy conditions will provide Québec’s forests a brief respite. </p>
<p>But how long will it last? Are events like these <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/quebec-climate-change-wildfires-research-1.6943502">destined to become more frequent?</a></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>As experts in disturbance dynamics occurring in the boreal environment, we are assessing the fires that occurred in Québec in 2023 to provide insights into their causes and consequences.</p>
<h2>Millions of hectares affected</h2>
<p>According to Québec’s <a href="https://sopfeu.qc.ca/en/">Société de protection des forêts contre le feu</a> (Society for the protection of forests against fire, SOPFEU), nearly 700 fires have burned approximately 5.1 million hectares (equivalent to the territory size of Costa Rica), both north and south of the northern forest limit designated by the province — or the boundary that separates northern Québec forests from the southern forests, where logging is conducted.</p>
<p>At the beginning of October, fifteen of the fires that had started in the summer were still active in western Québec. Three of them, although contained, had burned a total of almost 700,000 hectares within the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/canadian-province-of-quebec-looks-for-international-support-to-fight-over-160-wildfires">intensive protection zone</a>, where the SOPFEU systematically fights all fires. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://sopfeu.qc.ca/lintervention-de-la-sopfeu-dans-les-differentes-zones-de-protection/">northern zone</a>, twelve fires were still under surveillance, some not exceeding 20 hectares, others covering more than a million hectares. Out of the total area burned in 2023 in Québec, three-quarters (3.8 million hectares) were in the northern zone. South of the 50th parallel, within the intensive protection zone, approximately 1.4 million hectares burned, which is more than 80 times the annual average of the past ten years.</p>
<p>When we compare the 2023 fire season to <a href="https://www.donneesquebec.ca/recherche/dataset/feux-de-foret">datasets available since the 1970s</a>, it becomes quite clear that this year was unusual compared to recent decades. Yet, although these fires are impressive and difficult to contain, they are still within the range of “natural variability” observed in previous centuries.</p>
<p>Several <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22090">studies</a> have shown that particularly intense fire cycles were common in Québec during the period from 1910-1920. These were even more common in the 18th and 19th centuries when warm and dry climatic conditions were particularly conducive to forest fires.</p>
<h2>Exceptional weather conditions</h2>
<p>Like historic forest fires, fire outbreaks in Québec in 2023 were fuelled by <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/">intense weather conditions</a>. Starting in June, after an already dry month of May, a significant increase in fires was observed in the intensive protection zone. The northern zone was affected throughout the three summer months.</p>
<p>These fires were mainly started by lightning. Their spread was then exacerbated by low precipitation and abnormally high temperatures. <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/climat/faits-saillants/2023/juin.htm">Temperatures exceeded the 1981-2010 average for the month of June by 2.3°C</a>, setting a record for the warmest June recorded in Québec in at least a hundred years.</p>
<p>These exceptional weather conditions were partly influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, a cyclical warming of the Pacific Ocean known for its impact on terrestrial weather conditions. The trend continued into July, which witnessed exceptionally high average temperatures, well above normal (+2.7°C).</p>
<h2>Multiple consequences</h2>
<p>The simultaneous outbreak of numerous fires and their rapid spread have had multiple effects on wildlife, forests, the climate, and human populations.</p>
<p>The fires have altered the structure and composition of vegetation, causing disruption to wildlife habitats as well as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-wildfires-destabilize-quebec-wildlife-1.6867744">displacement and mortality among animals</a>. As a result, the hunting, fishing and harvesting territories of Indigenous communities have been affected.</p>
<p>In addition to representing a direct threat to public safety, the smoke from the fires caused respiratory problems, leading to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9791853/quebec-wildfires-more-evacuations-ordered/">the evacuation of thousands of people in several regions of Québec</a>. The deterioration in air quality was felt not only across Canada and the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65828469">United States</a>, but also as far as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/nasa-quebec-fire-smoke-europe-1.6890108">Europe</a>. Fortunately, evacuations were carried out in time, and casualties were avoided. However, there was some material damage.</p>
<p>In terms of their impact on the climate, large fires released several megatons of carbon dioxide stored in trees and soils, <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/er-2013-0062">contributing to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases</a> (CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>).</p>
<p>While the fires have had significant consequences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/forest-fires-north-americas-boreal-forests-are-burning-a-lot-but-less-than-150-years-ago-201365">they can sometimes be beneficial for certain organisms</a>. We can consider tree species like jack pine, which depend on fires for regeneration, and numerous animal species that thrive in burned forests.</p>
<h2>What can we expect in the future?</h2>
<p>Québec’s forests have been burning and regenerating cyclically for millennia. However, it is imperative to recognize that these cycles can evolve over time.</p>
<p>The 2023 fire season highlights the urgency of preparing for significant changes in disturbance dynamics, including the possibility of such events recurring more frequently.</p>
<p>As climate change progresses, periods of drought could become more frequent if precipitation fails to compensate for rising temperatures, as observed in the 20th century.</p>
<p>This combination of factors increases the likelihood of an increase in the number, size, and intensity of wildfires.</p>
<p>Such changes threaten the natural regeneration of forests and could lead to the formation of treeless areas, victims of too frequent fires <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2024872118">for vegetation to have time to regenerate</a>.</p>
<p>These conditions could also be exacerbated by the continued expansion of logging. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-as-canadas-boreal-forests-burn-again-and-again-they-wont-grow-back-the/">Preliminary analyses</a> have shown that more than 300,000 hectares of forests burned in 2023 may not regenerate, mainly due to the effects of logging in recent decades.</p>
<p>The consequences of major forest fires highlight the climate challenges we face. They demonstrate the need to develop mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at protecting vulnerable forest ecosystems and their inhabitants.</p>
<p>It is therefore imperative to learn lessons from the 2023 fire season to strengthen the resilience of forests and communities to climate change and limit damages caused by fires. This involves reducing risk, protecting the most vulnerable areas, and raising awareness among local populations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216933/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yves Bergeron received funding from FRQNT, NSERC and MNRF.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorian M. Gaboriau, Jonathan Lesven et Victor Danneyrolles ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>
The forest fires of the summer of 2023 in Québec were devastating. It was the worst year in 50 years. But with climate change, the worst may be yet to come.
Dorian M. Gaboriau, Postdoctorant en paléoécologie, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)
Jonathan Lesven, Doctorant en paléoécologie, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)
Victor Danneyrolles, Professeur-chercheur en écologie forestière, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)
Yves Bergeron, Professeur écologie et aménagement forestier, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216923
2023-11-03T11:51:04Z
2023-11-03T11:51:04Z
Why Storm Ciarán’s winds were so strong
<p>Storm Ciarán made landfall in southern regions of the UK during the evening of <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/storm-ciaran-update">November 1, 2023</a>. The UK’s Met Office issued amber <a href="https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_8969b7d5-49c6-40b4-9f01-909795aed9bc/">weather warnings</a> for November 2 in specific areas in the south of the UK, cautioning about high winds. This amber alert represents the second-highest level in the Met Office’s three-tier system. </p>
<p>Yellow warnings were also in place for both wind and rain, extending over a broader area and timeframe. </p>
<p>Ciarán unleashed extremely strong and destructive winds in some areas. Gusts of up to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-67285052">102 mph</a> were recorded in Jersey, and there have been reports of an <a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/meteo/en-direct-vents-violents-pluies-abondantes-la-tempete-ciaran-va-deferler-sur-la-france-20231101">128 mph wind gust</a> in Brittany on France’s north-west coast. For comparison, the record wind gust in England <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2022/2022_02_storms_dudley_eunice_franklin.pdf">stands at 122 mph</a>, set in 2022. </p>
<p>But why were Storm Ciarán’s winds so strong? The explanation lies in the fact that Ciarán was not your typical extratropical cyclone (or windstorm); it was an explosively developing one. </p>
<h2>An explosive cyclone</h2>
<p>One notable characteristic of Storm Ciarán was the extreme depth of its low-pressure centre. The UK Met Office announced that the central surface pressure, when adjusted to the mean sea level value, dropped to 953.3 millibars (mb) – a <a href="https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1720055662888063363?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">new record</a> for England and Wales in the month of November. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1720055662888063363"}"></div></p>
<p>The rate at which Ciarán’s pressure dropped was also exceptional. In fact, it far exceeded the threshold of approximately 24 mb in 24 hours (with a slight adjustment based on latitude) required to classify a storm as an explosively deepening cyclone “<a href="https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Bomb_cyclone">bomb</a>”.</p>
<p>This rapid intensification occurred as Ciarán, initially fuelled by the ascent and condensation of air over warm waters, found itself positioned beneath the front-left side of a particularly intense jet stream. The jet stream, characterised by high winds approximately 6 miles above the Earth’s surface, reached speeds of up to <a href="https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-mslp-wind200?base_time=202311011200&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202311011200">200 mph</a> on November 1, making it an especially favourable environment for a storm to intensify in.</p>
<h2>Why is this important?</h2>
<p>One of the primary factors influencing the intensity of surface winds in a storm like Ciarán is the rate of change in surface pressure. On weather charts, you’ll often encounter lines of constant surface pressure, known as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zstcv9q/revision/5">isobars</a>. When isobars are closely spaced, they indicate the presence of strong winds. </p>
<p>To illustrate this concept, picture two columns of water, one deeper than the other. If these columns are connected near their bottom ends, water will naturally flow from the deeper column to the shallower one, resulting in a stronger flow when there’s a significant difference in water depth. Similarly, air in our atmosphere tends to move from areas of higher pressure to lower pressure. The greater the difference in pressure, the stronger the associated winds.</p>
<p>Because the Earth is rotating, these winds turn towards the right and <a href="https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-wind-100m?base_time=202311020000&projection=opencharts_central_europe&valid_time=202311020600">generally follow the direction of the isobars</a> rather than being directed towards the low pressure. Bomb cyclones obtain deep low-pressure centres, and the isobars are most tightly packed in the south-west quadrant of the storm, resulting in the strongest “gradient” winds in that region.</p>
<p>In Ciarán’s case, this arc-shaped north-eastward travelling region covered Brittany, the Channel Islands, the far south-west of England and eventually the country’s far south-east.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing how winds closely follow the direction of isobars." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557315/original/file-20231102-21-804lso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Storm Ciarán on Thursday November 1 at 06:00. Winds closely follow the direction of the isobars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-wind-100m?base_time=202311020000&projection=opencharts_central_europe&valid_time=202311020600">© [2023] European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Often, these storms also move rapidly. Fast travel speed further contributes to the strength of the surface winds. This was the case for Ciarán, which crossed the North Atlantic in just a couple of days.</p>
<h2>Did Ciarán have a sting jet?</h2>
<p>During some intense windstorms, there can be an additional airstream known as the “<a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sting-jet">sting jet</a>”. Sting jets originate from specific cloud regions within the cyclone and can generate brief (lasting a few hours) and relatively small (60 miles across) areas of extremely strong winds, which are accompanied by very intense gusts should they reach the ground. </p>
<p>Storms containing sting jets have a distinctive structure, often characterised by rapidly deepening clouds. The evolution of Storm Ciarán was consistent with that structure. </p>
<p>Satellite images before the storm hit revealed <a href="https://twitter.com/AmbroeusVolonte/status/1719820288500683217">narrow bands at the tip of the cloud</a> hooking round the storm centre, the region from which the sting jet descends. However, detailed analysis will be required after the event to confirm whether sting jets were present.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1719820288500683217"}"></div></p>
<p>Sting jets do have the potential to worsen the damage caused by storms. But it’s important to note that Ciarán was forecast to unleash strong winds even in the absence of a sting jet. </p>
<p>As a point of reference, <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.4402">Storm Eunice</a>, which gained notoriety in February 2022 for prompting the first ever Met Office red warning for wind in southern England, setting England’s current wind gust record, and damaging the roof of London’s O2 arena, featured a sting jet.</p>
<p>However, by the time the storm arrived London, it had reached a mature stage. And <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.4401">our own research</a> suggests that the damaging winds were the result of a combination of several different airstreams, including a sting jet.</p>
<p>In explosively developing cyclones such as Storm Ciarán, damaging winds can be caused by a number of different airstreams that include, but are not limited to, sting jets. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Suzanne Gray has previously received funding from the Natural Environmental Research Council and AXA Research Fund to work on sting jet storms. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ambrogio Volonté has received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and AXA Research Fund to work on sting jet storms. </span></em></p>
Storm Ciarán unleashed extremely strong and destructive winds in parts of the southern UK and northern France – here’s why.
Suzanne Gray, Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
Ambrogio Volonté, Senior Research Fellow, University of Reading
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216842
2023-11-02T16:55:44Z
2023-11-02T16:55:44Z
Storm Ciarán is breaking records – and research suggests more severe weather in future
<p>Storm Ciarán made landfall in south-west England and northern France overnight on November 1, with heavy rain and winds blowing up to <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/11/02/storm-ciaran-12-million-french-homes-without-electricity-including-780000-in-bretagne">180 kilometers per hour</a> (108 mph). </p>
<p>The UK Met Office names storms each winter season, which starts in early September, and has decided to name them after people working “to keep people safe in times of severe weather” for the duration of the 2023/24 winter storm season. In this case, Ciarán is a tribute to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2023/11/01/storm-ciaran-how-do-storms-get-their-names_6220220_8.html#:%7E:text=In%20the%20case%20of%20Ciaran,servant%20working%20in%20flood%20monitoring.">Ciarán Fearon</a>, a Northern Irish civil servant working in flood monitoring.</p>
<p>Storm Ciarán prompted amber and yellow weather warnings from the UK Met office and red weather warnings from Metéo France. High winds have disrupted travel, blocked roads and drains with debris and damaged overhead lines, leaving over a million people without electricity in both countries.</p>
<p>Given how early Ciarán arrived in the winter storm season, trees are still in leaf and <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-act-of-god-or-just-bad-management-why-trees-fall-and-how-to-prevent-it-162754">anchored in soil</a> that is waterlogged from recent wet weather, putting many trees at risk of being uprooted.</p>
<p><a href="https://riverlevels.uk/flood-map/current">Flood warnings</a> were issued across the south of the UK and some parts of the east coast as heavy rain has met with sodden ground and already swollen rivers.</p>
<p>Storm Ciarán is an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/extratropical-cyclone">extra-tropical cyclone</a> (in other words, a rotating storm which forms outside the tropics) and unusual among North Atlantic storms, which rarely produce both heavy rain and high winds over large areas. </p>
<p>Low pressure in the eye of the cyclone deepened rapidly as it moved over the UK, dropping by more than 24 millibars <a href="https://twitter.com/Fergaltierney/status/1719315567583125670">in 24 hours</a> to a near-record low of 953 millibars. This is what meteorologists call a bomb cyclone.</p>
<h2>Forming a sting jet</h2>
<p>Only two events with similarly low pressure have <a href="https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/1719338034129248668?t=2ujQ0An90VU8Ul_aOfl0nw&s=09">been recorded</a> this far south in the UK. Satellite images taken the day before the storm hit suggested a <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/what-is-a-sting-jet-and-how-could-it-make-storm-eunice-deadly-12544077">sting jet</a> (a stream of air that can form within a storm and produce extremely intense winds over a very small area) was forming that could strike the north of France.</p>
<p>Ciarán is the UK’s third named storm in a winter storm season that is shaping up to be exceptionally turbulent. The first named storm was in September (Agnes), which is very early. And the UK also had a named storm in August 2023 (Antoni), which is highly unusual.</p>
<p>Large parts of the UK saw twice the average amount of rainfall in <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2023/2023_08_storm_babet.pdf">October</a> too, largely due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/storm-babet-caused-dangerous-floods-as-the-dry-side-of-scotland-isnt-used-to-such-torrential-rain-216103">Storm Babet</a> that flooded parts of the north of England and Scotland and left around <a href="https://www.energynetworks.org/newsroom/update-on-storm-babet">100,000 people without electricity</a>. In the lead up to Storm Ciarán, severe flood damage was reported in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-67271233">Newry</a> in Northern Ireland and <a href="https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/flooding-hits-homes-in-wexford-as-further-heavy-rain-forecast/a2072734748.html">Wexford</a> in Ireland.</p>
<h2>Why autumn 2023 has been so stormy</h2>
<p>The succession of storms since August 2023 has been driven by an unusually strong <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/what-is-the-jet-stream">jet stream</a> that has shifted further south than is typical for this time of year. </p>
<p>The jet stream is a band of very strong wind high in the atmosphere that can extend across the Atlantic and bring storms to the UK. A stronger jet stream can make storms more powerful, and a more southerly position means that storms are warmer and carry more moisture and energy, making rapid intensification more likely. </p>
<p>Similar conditions were present for Storm Babet, though Babet became cut off from the jet stream instead, causing it to stall over the UK. Such slow-moving storms can produce more persistent rainfall over one region and cause flooding and are predicted to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL092361">become more common</a> in a warmer climate.</p>
<p>The strength and position of the jet stream is related to the temperature difference between cold polar air and warmer sub-tropical air. The jet stream is stronger when this south-to-north temperature difference is greater. </p>
<p>The boundary between polar and tropical air masses is further south than normal for this time of year due to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, coupled with anomalously cold conditions in the southeastern US. This has fuelled successive storms over northern Europe. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1719197668600127620"}"></div></p>
<p>The unusual strength and position of the jet stream is probably a result of the positive phase of the <a href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-event-advisory-noaa-forecast-winter-weather-atmospheric-response-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?swcfpc=1">El Niño southern oscillation</a>, a natural cycle in Earth’s climate which brings higher sea surface temperatures to the western Pacific. El Niño also contributed to the UK’s extremely wet and windy <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/96/12/bams-d-15-00118.1.xml?tab_body=pdf">2013/14 winter season</a> and often <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101008">causes</a> extremely low temperatures over North America and windy and wet conditions in Europe.</p>
<h2>More wet and windy conditions ahead?</h2>
<p>Winter storms that hit northern Europe will unleash heavier rainfall in future due to climate change, as warmer air holds more moisture. Scientists are less certain about how wind will differ in future storms, as the relevant processes, such as those causing changes in the jet stream, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-storm-eunice-was-so-severe-and-will-violent-wind-storms-become-more-common-177468">are more complicated</a>.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000038">research</a> suggests that storms which combine high winds and extreme rainfall, like Ciarán, will happen more often over northern Europe in future. This will <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3#Sec15">compound the risks</a> of climate change as the effects of flooding and wind damage accumulate. </p>
<p>Recent storms show that society has not adapted to worsening climate conditions. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will mitigate risks from extreme weather. But national emission pledges <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now">commit the world to more warming</a> and with it, more intense flooding and storm damage. </p>
<p>Alongside drastically cutting emissions, countries must build more resilient infrastructure to adapt to a more turbulent climate. This will be costly, but far less costly than doing nothing.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Manning has received funding from NERC and the European Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hayley J. Fowler has received funding from NERC and the European Research Council.</span></em></p>
Storm Ciarán is the UK’s third named winter storm since September.
Colin Manning, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Science, Newcastle University
Hayley J. Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/211015
2023-10-24T14:59:03Z
2023-10-24T14:59:03Z
Royal Charter storm of 1859: how an almighty tempest led to the birth of the UK’s shipping forecast
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551692/original/file-20231003-27-6msxku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1000%2C633&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Royal Charter was shipwrecked at Porth Alerth near Moelfre on Anglesey. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Oxley Library, State Library of Queensland</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>You can read this article in <a href="https://theconversation.com/storm-y-royal-charter-1859-a-chreur-rhagolygon-tywydd-i-forwyr-215368">Welsh</a></em>.</p>
<p>In British weather history, one storm stands out as a catalyst for change – the Royal Charter Storm of 1859. This devastating tempest off the west coast of Britain played a pivotal role in the founding of the shipping forecast and has had an enduring <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1970.tb04108.x">impact</a> on weather forecasting in the UK and beyond. </p>
<p>Winds gusted at 100 miles per hour between October 25 and 26 that year – <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspl.1859.0047">higher</a> than any previously recorded in the Mersey, in north-west England. And it’s considered to be the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/our-history/the-royal-charter-gale">most severe</a> Irish Sea storm of the 19th century. More than 800 lives were lost and the storm sank or badly damaged more than 200 ships. But it also paved the way for the creation of the shipping forecast. </p>
<p>The storm is named after the most famous of the ships lost to the waves, a steam and sailing ship called the <a href="https://blog.library.wales/a-helpless-ruin-on-the-shores-of-anglesea-the-royal-charter-and-the-rothsay-castle-shipwrecks/">Royal Charter</a>. After a two-month journey from Melbourne in Australia, the Royal Charter was heading towards Liverpool with its valuable cargo of gold. The ship was caught in the full fury of the storm off the coast of Anglesey, Wales. </p>
<p>Despite the crew’s valiant efforts to anchor the ship and cut its sails, the Royal Charter was driven onto the rocks in the early hours of October 26. With the help of villagers onshore, they succeeded in saving around 40 passengers. Other passengers had tried to swim to shore but were weighed down by the gold in their pockets and drowned. The ship eventually split in two and the waves claimed the lives of more than 450 passengers and crew members, including all the women and children aboard. </p>
<p>The tragic loss of life and property made the storm headline news. It even came to the attention of <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Shipwreck.html?id=oV_XAAAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">Charles Dickens</a>, who was working as a journalist in London at the time and visited the site of the wreck soon after the storm. </p>
<h2>The shipping forecast and the Met Office</h2>
<p>Weather observations had been collected from around the British coast <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/library-and-archive/archive-hidden-treasures/met-office-history">since 1854</a> by a part of the UK Met Office known then as the Meteorological Department of the Board of Trade. The Royal Charter Storm, however, highlighted a need for more accurate weather forecasting and a national storm warning system. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An old black and white photo of a man in a tailcoat" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551757/original/file-20231003-27-52l57b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551757/original/file-20231003-27-52l57b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551757/original/file-20231003-27-52l57b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551757/original/file-20231003-27-52l57b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551757/original/file-20231003-27-52l57b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1254&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551757/original/file-20231003-27-52l57b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551757/original/file-20231003-27-52l57b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1254&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice Admiral Robert Fitzroy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FitzRoy.jpg?uselang=en#/media/File:FitzRoy.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Vice Admiral <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Robert-Fitzroy">Robert Fitzroy</a>, founder of the Met Office, had been lobbying for the creation of such a storm warning system since the summer of 1859. Following the Royal Charter storm, Fitzroy was able to <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspl.1859.0111">demonstrate</a> that it could have been predicted. </p>
<p>In December of that year, the new storm warning system was approved and the first warning was issued in February 1861. This was delivered by telegraph to harbour towns, who then hoisted cones and drums on a mast to warn vessels in harbours and along the coast of the incoming storm.</p>
<p>The UK’s storm warning service – which later became known as the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qfvv">shipping forecast</a> – is the longest running national forecasting service in the world. Today, the Met Office <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/shipping-forecast">provides</a> the shipping forecast on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, and issues a forecast four times a day for the 31 areas of sea around the British Isles.</p>
<h2>A lasting legacy</h2>
<p>In addition to its <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo3534836.html">meteorological legacy</a>, the effects of the storm can still be seen around the Welsh coastline to this day. On Anglesey, the <a href="https://www.peoplescollection.wales/items/44470">graves</a> of those who died in the wreck can be found in many churches along the coast. Gold nuggets have also <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/gold-nugget-worth-50000-washed-11311063">washed ashore</a> in recent years.</p>
<p>Further south, in Cwmyreglwys, Pembrokeshire, stand the remains of Saint Brynach’s church, which was partially destroyed by the storm.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="One stone wall of a church stands on a beautiful coastline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551794/original/file-20231003-19-2458g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551794/original/file-20231003-19-2458g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551794/original/file-20231003-19-2458g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551794/original/file-20231003-19-2458g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551794/original/file-20231003-19-2458g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551794/original/file-20231003-19-2458g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551794/original/file-20231003-19-2458g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ruins of St Brynach’s Church in Cwmyreglwys, Pembrokeshire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/st-brynachs-church-cwm-yr-eglwys-141734476">Dr Morley Read/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/our-history">Since 1859</a>, the Met Office has made <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/met-office-and-forecasting-firsts/met-office-and-forecasting-firsts">significant strides</a> in the field of meteorology. In August 1861, the first public <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-14361204">weather forecast</a> was printed in The Times, then broadcast on the radio in 1922 and was eventually seen on television for the first time in 1936. </p>
<p>Step by step, the Met Office has pioneered new technologies by launching the world’s first meteorological satellite in 1960 and using the first forecast by a computer in 1965. It has continued to invest in state-of-the-art <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/technology/supercomputer">supercomputers</a> to improve severe weather and climate forecasting since then.</p>
<p>Today, the Met Office is a globally recognised authority in meteorology and climate science. Its expertise is invaluable for numerous sectors, from aviation and agriculture to emergency services and infrastructure planning. The Met Office is now responsible for providing the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice">National Severe Weather Warning Service</a>, which includes warnings for wind, rain, thunderstorms, lightning, ice, fog, snow and extreme heat.</p>
<p>Through the Met Office’s dedication to scientific research and accurate forecasting, the UK and the world have benefited from improved weather predictions and increased preparedness for extreme weather events. The legacy of the Royal Charter Storm lives on in the Met Office’s ongoing mission to provide essential weather and climate services, safeguarding lives and livelihoods in an ever-changing climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cerys Jones has previously received funding from the AHRC, EU's Ireland-Wales Programme 2014-2020, and the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol.</span></em></p>
More than 800 lives were lost in the Royal Charter storm but it also led to improvements in weather forecasting.
Cerys Jones, Geography Lecturer, Aberystwyth University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/213876
2023-10-18T00:49:51Z
2023-10-18T00:49:51Z
Climate change will affect solar power and grid stability across Australia – here’s how
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554431/original/file-20231017-15-sromml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=821%2C0%2C4486%2C2393&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/huge-solar-power-plant-panels-renewable-2142285649">Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Renewable electricity generation is at record levels in Australia. Renewables produced <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/Clean-Energy-Australia-Report-2023.pdf">36% of the nation’s electricity</a> in 2022. Solar photovoltaics (PV) had the highest renewable contribution (about 15%) and are expected to keep growing in coming years. </p>
<p>But the increase in the share of grid-connected renewables adds to the challenge of maintaining a stable electricity grid, given the impact of weather conditions on their output. </p>
<p>An increasingly important question is what impact will climate change have on weather-induced inconsistencies in solar generation? <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039">Our newly published research</a> is the first to quantify climate change’s impact on solar resource reliability in Australia over the next century.</p>
<p>We find that as the climate warms, in some regions of Australia there will be more weather-induced variability than in others. In particular, the eastern parts of Australia can expect fewer intermittent or lull periods of solar power generation by the end of the century. By contrast, some regions in the west will face prolonged periods of minimum-to-no power generation in the future. </p>
<p>Despite the changing climate, the good news is the future of solar power looks promising in most of Australia. Our research suggests solar resource reliability will increase in the regions where we have our existing solar farms. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-948" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/948/288b55303b284314a27a69ec97008bf5a1f567e8/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-successful-energy-transition-depends-on-managing-when-people-use-power-so-how-do-we-make-demand-more-flexible-213079">A successful energy transition depends on managing when people use power. So how do we make demand more flexible?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How does solar growth affect grid stability?</h2>
<p>The grid distributes electricity generated from coal and gas-fired power stations, large solar and wind farms, rooftop solar, hydropower and so on. </p>
<p>Unlike coal or gas-fired stations, the power renewables generate is not constant. It varies depending on the local weather. For example, the amount of solar power generated depends on the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a64/meta">amount of irradiance</a> (intensity of sunlight) and, most importantly, cloud cover at that location. </p>
<p>So, any changes in the weather affect the amount of energy supplied to the grid. These variable outputs can not only cause an imbalance between electricity supply and demand, but also lead to voltage fluctuations and blackouts. </p>
<p>Electrical equipment is designed to function at a specific frequency and voltage. If the voltage exceeds the threshold it can damage the equipment. At a larger scale, voltage changes or frequency instability can trigger safety mechanisms that take parts of the grid offline, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-38566-z">leading to blackouts</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="cOGin" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cOGin/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>How does climate change affect solar output?</h2>
<p>Using regional climate model projections, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039">our results</a> predict that under a higher emissions scenario known as <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/">RCP8.5</a>, often described as “business as usual”, the availability of solar resources will increase in most of Australia by up to 1% by 2099. We predict minor decreases of 0.25–0.5% near the west.</p>
<p>Similarly, the duration of extractable solar power (called “episode lengths”) will increase in the east by up to 30 minutes per year. We predict minor decreases in the west. This means the resource will be more reliable in the east and we can expect a more stable electricity supply from solar PV generation. This doesn’t take into account higher temperatures, which can <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a64/meta">decrease the PV yield</a>.</p>
<p>We also predict the times with no-to-minimum power generation (called “lulls”) will reduce in eastern Australia by about 25 minutes per year. We expect minor increases in lulls in the west. These changes are mainly due to an increase in the number of clear-sky days in the east. </p>
<h2>A less sunny outlook for world’s largest solar farm</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.suncable.energy/our-projects">Sun Cable</a> is developing the largest solar farm in the world in the Northern Territory. It will have a generation capacity of at least 14 gigawatts. Sun Cable plans to supply electricity to Darwin and Singapore.</p>
<p>Based on our simulations, we predict a 2% reduction in radiation at the Sun Cable solar farm by 2099. This could lead to a loss of about 280 megawatts in its total generation capacity by then. </p>
<p>We also predict reduced episode lengths for the Sun Cable farm. This points to shorter periods of reliable power output. Likewise, the power generated is predicted to be highly variable throughout the day due to an increase in lull periods.</p>
<p>Sun Cable will likely need to consider having energy storage systems and strategies to control voltage fluctuations to tackle intermittency. </p>
<h2>What else does Australia need to consider?</h2>
<p>The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">report</a> stresses the urgent need to prepare for extreme climate change and greatly reduce carbon emissions. One of the most efficient ways to do this is to develop more grid-connected renewable energy technologies world-wide. </p>
<p>Australia has an ambitious <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/advocacy-initiatives/renewable-energy-target">renewable energy target</a>, and we expect more grid-connected solar farms in the future. This means grid operators and distributors will have to manage future periods of high demand and variable supply. </p>
<p>One of the most efficient solutions is to use storage facilities to soak up energy at times of high output. These can then supply energy when renewable output stops or is intermittent. Batteries are an obvious choice, and Australia will have <a href="https://www.power-technology.com/data-insights/top-five-energy-storage-projects-in-australia/">several big battery storage plants</a> by 2025. </p>
<p>Before setting up large-scale solar plants, we should assess the impacts of climate change using a range of climate models and different future scenarios to minimise future risks. We should also consider installing hybrid renewable energy plants, such as solar and wind at the same site. This will help optimise the energy mix to reduce intermittency.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213876/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shukla Poddar is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
</span></em></p>
Solar power generation varies greatly depending on the weather. A new study suggests in some parts of Australia, solar has a bright future.
Shukla Poddar, Senior Research Fellow, School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/209921
2023-10-16T15:38:04Z
2023-10-16T15:38:04Z
Tornadoes in the UK are surprisingly common and no one knows why
<p>A small tornado recently passed through the town of Littlehampton on England’s south coast. Strong winds smashed windows, moved cars and left <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12530871/Trail-devastation-freak-mini-tornado-hit-West-Sussex-flying-debris-trashing-vehicles-homes-Atlantic-storm-battered-Britain.html">one person injured</a>.</p>
<p>You might associate tornadoes with the plains of the central US, but they’re surprisingly common in the UK too – albeit smaller and weaker. In fact, my former PhD student Kelsey Mulder found that the UK has about 2.3 tornadoes per year per 10,000 square kilometres. That’s a higher density than the US, which as a whole has just 1.3 per 10,000 square km.</p>
<p>The numbers are higher for American states in “Tornado Alley” such as Oklahoma (3.6) or Kansas (11.2). Nonetheless, a random location in the UK is more likely to experience a tornado than a random location in the US. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1703685163878596835"}"></div></p>
<p>The data isn’t perfect, however. Tornadoes cannot be observed by satellites and need to be close to weather radars, which can detect the rotation. Thus, most observations are made by humans who then have to report them to the relevant weather service. “Storm-chasers” follow most tornadoes on the American plains, but underreporting may be an issue elsewhere.</p>
<p>Most tornado research has focused on the US, where forecasting and early-warning systems are advanced. There is considerably less research on UK tornadoes. Over the past 12 years, my research group has tried to address this by shedding light on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00299.1">where and when UK tornadoes occur</a>, what causes the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0021.1">storms that produce them</a> and how we can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0131.1">better predict them</a>.</p>
<h2>England has three ‘tornado alleys’</h2>
<p>Whereas many tornadoes in the US plains occur within a few weeks during the spring, UK tornadoes can occur throughout the year. The UK’s tornado alley is really three regions, most in southern England: an area south of a line between Reading and London with a maximum near Guildford, locations southwest of Ipswich and a line west and south of Birmingham. </p>
<p>These regions have probabilities of experiencing a tornado within a 100 square km area of somewhere between 3% and 6% per year, meaning they could see one as often as every 15 to 30 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="annotated map of UK" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552505/original/file-20231006-30-nrbxqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tornadoes between 1980 and 2012, mapped by Dr. Kelsey Mulder and the author.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/6/mwr-d-14-00299.1.xml">Monthly Weather Review</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These tornadoes aren’t as violent as the more extreme ones in the US, but the damage can still be substantial. In July 2005, a large tornado in Birmingham caused £40 million in damages and <a href="https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/115203.pdf">injured 39</a>. Fortunately, no one was killed. People have died in the past though, for example a strong tornado in South Wales in 1913 <a href="https://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/1913.htm">killed three</a>.</p>
<p>Although the Birmingham tornado was the most damaging tornado on that day, two others were recorded across the British Isles. Indeed, around 70% of UK tornado days have at least two reports, and 13% produce three or more.</p>
<p>We refer to such days as tornado outbreaks, with the largest-ever UK tornado outbreak occurring on 23 November 1981, producing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0131.1">104 tornado reports</a> from Anglesey to Norwich.</p>
<h2>What causes tornadoes</h2>
<p>We still don’t know exactly why the UK has so many weak tornadoes. We do know that “supercells” – rotating thunderstorms tens of kilometres across – form the largest tornadoes in the US but occur less frequently in the UK. Instead, tornadoes in the UK tend to be formed from lines of storms along cold fronts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Disc shaped storm with lightning." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552541/original/file-20231006-17-342o3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The largest tornadoes are formed from supercell storms, like this one in Kansas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GSW Photography / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although millions of dollars have been spent researching supercell thunderstorms in the US, there is an increasing awareness that these linear storms also require investigation on both sides of the Atlantic. Our group has been trying to understand what causes some of these parent storms to begin to rotate and eventually spawn tornadoes. </p>
<p>So far, my former PhD student Ty Buckingham and I have been able to identify certain conditions where the wind direction changes abruptly. In such cases, an instability may develop where small perturbations grow into <a href="https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/investigating-vortexgenesis-from-quasi-linear-convective-systems-">rotating vortices a kilometre or more across</a>, regularly spaced along the front. Such vortices are thought to be the precursor for tornadoes.</p>
<p>Identifying the conditions for this so-called “horizontal shearing instability” should mean we can better predict when and where the parent storms that produce the tornadoes form. But understanding this instability is not the only answer. Other tornado-producing storms do not appear to be associated with this instability, so we still have more to learn.</p>
<p>The next step is understanding how the tornadoes themselves form. For that, we will need both fortuitous observations of such tornadoes forming close to Met Office radars and powerful computer programs that are able to model the atmosphere down to a scale of tens of meters.</p>
<p>Recent advances in computing and our collaborations with colleagues in engineering may yet reveal the secrets of UK tornadoes. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209921/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Schultz receives funding on this topic from the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) and has received funding from the Risk Prediction Initiative.</span></em></p>
Britain doesn’t have huge violent twisters like the US. But it does have lots of little tornadoes.
David Schultz, Professor of Synoptic Meteorology, University of Manchester
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/213779
2023-10-09T13:32:18Z
2023-10-09T13:32:18Z
Climate hazards aren’t restricted by borders – African countries have taken a big step to address this
<p>Climate risks can be complex to deal with because they don’t respect country borders. Hazards in one region can have negative repercussions in another. These are known as transboundary climate risks, and they’re a growing concern. They require coordinated, multinational responses, which can be a challenge given the different priorities and capabilities of each country.</p>
<p>A transboundary climate risk could be due to a shared ecosystem, such as a river basin. For instance the Nile river, which flows through 11 countries, can experience variations in water availability due to changes in the weather. This will affect the millions who depend on it. </p>
<p>Transboundary climate risks can also cross continents and oceans and <a href="https://adaptationwithoutborders.org/knowledge-base/adaptation-without-borders/an-african-perspective-on-transboundary-and-cascading-climate-risks">spawn crises</a> on the other side of the world. These could range from <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/drought-food-insecurity-greater-horn-of-africa">food and water shortages</a> to threats to <a href="https://www.sei.org/publications/impacts-on-global-food-trade-networks/">trade</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20221106-crisis-on-the-nile-global-warming-and-overuse-threaten-africa-s-longest-river">energy</a>, widening <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/09/climate-change-and-inequality-guivarch-mejean-taconet">inequalities</a>, forced <a href="https://adaptationwithoutborders.org/knowledge-base/human-mobility/addressing-the-land-degradation-migration-nexus">migrations</a> and even <a href="https://www.mistra-geopolitics.se/publications/climate-change-trade-and-global-food-security/">geopolitical conflicts</a>. </p>
<p>For instance a drought in East Africa could affect tea production in Kenya. This would lead to an increase in prices for tea drinkers in importing countries, like the UK. Likewise, a typhoon could affect manufacturers in south-east Asia. This could disrupt the supply of electronics to African markets and lead to price hikes or shortages.</p>
<p>Africa is particularly vulnerable. Trade routes, supply chains and shared ecosystems span across the continent. A climate-induced disruption in one country can easily ripple into cascading effects in its neighbours. The coordinated management of transboundary climate risks is both a challenge and a necessity.</p>
<p>At the recent <a href="https://africaclimatesummit.org/">Africa climate summit</a> in Kenya, the African Union and other African stakeholders presented the <a href="https://adaptationwithoutborders.org/knowledge-base/adaptation-without-borders/a-roadmap-for-african-resilience">Roadmap for African Resilience</a> to address this.</p>
<p>The roadmap contains a series of actions meant to enhance coordination between the regional economic communities and member states in addressing and managing transboundary and cascading climate risks. This is an objective of the African Union’s <a href="https://au.int/en/documents/20220628/african-union-climate-change-and-resilient-development-strategy-and-action-plan">Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan 2022–2032</a>.</p>
<p>Historically, adaptation efforts have largely addressed localised impacts, such as rising sea levels and coastal communities or frequent droughts and their impact on agricultural yields.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.sei.org/people/richard-j-t-klein/">expert</a> on adaptation to climate change, I believe that the significance of this roadmap lies in its comprehensive, continent-wide approach. It recognises that shared challenges require shared solutions. And it underscores Africa’s commitment to taking charge of its climate destiny. This makes the roadmap valuable in the evolving discourse on global climate resilience.</p>
<h2>Unified front</h2>
<p>The Roadmap for African Resilience outlines 25 crucial actions to fortify Africa’s resilience against transboundary climate risks. It has a focus on the risks posed to global supply chains, energy and food markets. </p>
<p>The roadmap’s actions can be grouped into four general plans:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Recognise the risks: this includes a pan-African transboundary climate risk assessment and the development of risk indicators.</p></li>
<li><p>Govern together: identify the transboundary risks that each country considers most important. These will be included in different areas of policy.</p></li>
<li><p>Implement Africa-wide adaptation: create a plan to find the best ways to strengthen communities against transboundary climate risks. Just resilience principles are embedded into this, such as prioritising the needs of the most vulnerable people and upholding human rights and cultural values. The roadmap also kickstarts a programme to put these ideas into action.</p></li>
<li><p>Mobilise resources for resilience: getting more money from multiple countries to support climate action, making sure private investments match public goals by emphasising systemic resilience, and building capacity to invest together.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The Roadmap for African Resilience thus offers a holistic, pan-African vision. It not only identifies transboundary climate risks but also proposes a structured approach for collective action. </p>
<p>Implementing the roadmap requires the active involvement of a range of African organisations. These include the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the African Union Commission, the African Union Development Agency – New Partnership for Africa’s Development, the African Group of Negotiators Expert Support and the Regional Economic Communities in Africa. In addition, national governments, the private sector, civil society and academia play crucial roles.</p>
<p>The challenge will lie in ensuring cohesive action among these entities. Especially when adaptation to climate risks is a relatively new endeavour for some of the above organisations.</p>
<h2>Significant step</h2>
<p>The inaugural Africa Climate Summit marked a significant step for Africa’s collective commitment to resilience. The roadmap acknowledges the reality of Africa’s intertwined destinies and the need for collaborative solutions to cross-border climate risks.</p>
<p>Given the borderless nature of climate risks, global cooperation must be at the heart of adaptation initiatives.</p>
<p><em>Brenda Ochola, communications and impact officer with the Stockholm Environment Institute, contributed to the writing of this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard J.T. Klein receives funding from the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and the Swedish research council for sustainable development Formas. He is a member of the steering committee of Adaptation Without Borders—a global partnership working to strengthen systemic resilience to cross-border climate impacts. </span></em></p>
Transboundary climate risks can cross borders, continents and oceans to affect communities on the other side of the world. Africa’s new roadmap seeks to address this.
Richard J.T. Klein, Senior Research Fellow and Team Leader, International Climate Risk and Adaptation, Stockholm Environment Institute
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/215140
2023-10-06T01:53:35Z
2023-10-06T01:53:35Z
6 reasons why global temperatures are spiking right now
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552428/original/file-20231006-27-7ho178.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C10%2C3424%2C2286&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/6gVvfQEnWtY">Jonas Weckschmied/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world is very warm right now. We’re not only seeing record temperatures, but the records are being broken by record-wide margins.</p>
<p>Take the preliminary September global-average temperature anomaly of 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, for example. It’s an incredible 0.5°C above the previous record.</p>
<p>So why is the world so incredibly hot right now? And what does it mean for keeping our Paris Agreement targets? </p>
<p>Here are six contributing factors – with climate change the main reason temperatures are so high.</p>
<h2>1. El Niño</h2>
<p>One reason for the exceptional heat is we are in a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean">significant El Niño</a> that is still strengthening. During El Niño we see warming of the surface ocean over much of the tropical Pacific. This warming, and the effects of El Niño in other parts of the world, raises global average temperatures by <a href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/01/2022-updates-to-the-temperature-records/">about 0.1 to 0.2°C</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">Explainer: El Niño and La Niña</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Taking into account the fact we’ve just come out of a triple La Niña, which cools global average temperatures slightly, and the fact this is the first major El Niño in eight years, it’s not too surprising we’re seeing unusually high temperatures at the moment.</p>
<p>Still, El Niño alone isn’t enough to explain the crazily high temperatures the world is experiencing.</p>
<h2>2. Falling pollution</h2>
<p>Air pollution from human activities cools the planet and has offset some of the warming caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. There have been efforts to reduce this pollution – since 2020 there has been an <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/imo-advances-measures-to-reduce-emissions-from-international-shipping/">international agreement</a> to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions from the global shipping industry.</p>
<p>It has been speculated this cleaner air has contributed to the recent heat, particularly over the record-warm <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-breaking-north-atlantic-ocean-temperatures-contribute-extreme-marine-heatwaves">north Atlantic</a> and Pacific regions with high shipping traffic.</p>
<p>It’s likely this is contributing to the extreme high global temperatures – but only on the order of hundredths of a degree. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/">Recent analysis</a> suggests the effect of the 2020 shipping agreement is about an extra 0.05°C warming by 2050.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A smog shrouded road with motorcycles, trucks and cars barely visible through the pollution" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552429/original/file-20231006-15-4t8dca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People pass through the rising pollution on the Delhi-Jaipur Expressway in Gurgaon, Haryana, India, on November 12 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/people-pass-through-rising-pollution-on-2073480677">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Increasing solar activity</h2>
<p>While falling pollution levels mean more of the Sun’s energy reaches Earth’s surface, the amount of the energy the Sun emits is itself variable. There are different solar cycles, but an 11-year cycle is the most relevant one to today’s climate.</p>
<p>The Sun is becoming <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/14/world/solar-maximum-activity-2024-scn/index.html">more active</a> from a minimum in late 2019. This is also contributing a small amount to the spike in global temperatures. Overall, increasing solar activity is contributing only hundredths of a degree at most to the recent global heat. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-solar-cycle-the-suns-activity-is-more-powerful-and-surprising-than-predicted-209955">This solar cycle, the sun's activity is more powerful and surprising than predicted</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Water vapour from Hunga Tonga eruption</h2>
<p>On January 15 2022 the underwater <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26006-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-eruption">Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano erupted</a> in the South Pacific Ocean, sending large amounts of water vapour high up into the upper atmosphere. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so increasing its concentration in the atmosphere in this way does intensify the greenhouse effect.</p>
<p>Even though the eruption happened almost two years ago, it’s still having a small warming effect on the planet. However, as with the reduced pollution and increasing solar activity, we’re talking about hundredths of a degree.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6oANPi-SWN0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>5. Bad luck</h2>
<p>We see variability in global temperatures from one year to the next even without factors like El Niño or major changes in pollution. Part of the reason this September was so extreme was likely due to weather systems being in the right place to heat the land surface.</p>
<p>When we have persistent high-pressure systems over land regions, as seen recently over places like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/01/autumn-heat-continues-in-europe-after-record-breaking-september">western Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/australia-weather-september-heat-records-tumble/102870294">Australia</a>, we see local temperatures rise and the conditions for unseasonable heat.</p>
<p>As water requires more energy to warm and the ocean moves around, we don’t see the same quick response in temperatures over the seas when we have high-pressure systems.</p>
<p>The positioning of weather systems warming up many land areas coupled with persistent ocean heat is likely a contributor to the global-average heat too.</p>
<h2>6. Climate change</h2>
<p>By far the biggest contributor to the overall +1.7°C global temperature anomaly is human-caused climate change. Overall, humanity’s effect on the climate has been a global warming of <a href="https://www.globalwarmingindex.org/">about 1.2°C</a>.</p>
<p>The record-high rate of greenhouse gas emissions means we should expect global warming to accelerate too.</p>
<p>While humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions explain the trend seen in September temperatures over many decades, they don’t really explain the big difference from last September (when the greenhouse effect was almost as strong as it is today) and September 2023.</p>
<p>Much of the difference between this year and last comes back to the switch from La Niña to El Niño, and the right weather systems in the right place at the right time.</p>
<h2>The upshot: we need to accelerate climate action</h2>
<p>September 2023 shows that with a combination of climate change and other factors aligning we can see alarmingly high temperatures.</p>
<p>These anomalies may appear to be above the 1.5°C global warming level referred to in the Paris Agreement, but that’s about keeping <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/understanding-the-paris-agreements-long-term-temperature-goal/">long-term global warming</a> to low levels and not individual months of heat.</p>
<p>But we are seeing the effects of climate change unfolding more and more clearly.</p>
<p>The most vulnerable are suffering the biggest impacts as wealthier nations continue to emit the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Humanity must accelerate the path to net zero to prevent more record-shattering global temperatures and damaging extreme events.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-by-2050-too-late-australia-must-aim-for-2035-213973">Net zero by 2050? Too late. Australia must aim for 2035</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>
The preliminary global-average temperature anomaly for September is a shocking 1.7°C. These are the drivers of current record-breaking heat.
Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.