tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/in-english/articlesIn English – The Conversation2024-03-04T11:12:13Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2091932024-03-04T11:12:13Z2024-03-04T11:12:13ZIndonesia can expand its gastrodiplomacy via plant-based meals in Europe: Research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579226/original/file-20240301-28-qahxj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C0%2C8021%2C5369&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Raw vegetable and lettuce salad with Indonesian fried tempeh. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/raw-vegetable-lettuce-salad-organic-capsicum-528577267">Gekko Gallery/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429465543-25/guide-gastrodiplomacy-paul-rockower">Gastrodiplomacy</a> as the practice of a country’s diplomacy by promoting its cuisine, is now gaining popularity in several countries across the globe, including <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/pb.2012.17">South Korea and Thailand</a>.</p>
<p>South Korea, for example, has introduced its so-called “<a href="https://journal.ugm.ac.id/v3/JWTS/article/view/3607#:%7E:text=Gastrodiplomacy%20is%20a%20form%20of,carried%20by%20people%20to%20people.">Kimchi Diplomacy</a>” in the world for the past years as part of the country’s soft power in promoting culinary culture. Thailand, meanwhile, has been <a href="http://repository.umy.ac.id/bitstream/handle/123456789/17182/5.%20BAB%20I.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y">spreading the influence of Thai food</a> and expanding Thai restaurants around the globe, attracting the global communities to <a href="https://www.foodrepublic.com/1318428/how-gastrodiplomacy-brought-thai-food-world-stage/">eat authentic Thai cuisine</a>. </p>
<p>Indonesia, <a href="https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=_SFFBAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT13&dq=indonesia+famous+with+food+and+spices&ots=TIq5f366aX&sig=HkjmJjl9Sv2Pj1OMq7F3xmSlccY&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=indonesia%20famous%20with%20food%20and%20spices&f=false">with diverse food and beverages as well as indigenous spices,</a> has also started to resort to this strategy to promote the country in the global forum. </p>
<p>Our unpublished observation based on fieldwork in May 2023 and <a href="https://journalofethnicfoods.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s42779-023-00207-1">literature reviews</a> <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/hjd/18/4/article-p558_4.xml?language=en">since mid-2021</a> resulted in a recommendation for the Indonesian government to take advantage of its diverse menu for its gastrodiplomacy agenda. </p>
<p>We recommend Indonesia emphasise plant-based dishes for its gastrodiplomacy strategy in Europe, given <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00394-021-02630-z">the region’s rising trend of plant-based food consumption</a>.</p>
<h2>Why plant-based food</h2>
<p>A growing number of people are increasingly considering plant-based food as a dietary alternative to maintain their health following <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13959">global concerns </a> on the negative impacts of processed foods on health, society and the environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579227/original/file-20240301-26-hwas8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579227/original/file-20240301-26-hwas8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579227/original/file-20240301-26-hwas8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579227/original/file-20240301-26-hwas8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579227/original/file-20240301-26-hwas8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579227/original/file-20240301-26-hwas8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579227/original/file-20240301-26-hwas8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gado-gado (Indonesian authentic salad with peanut dressing).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gadogado-typical-jakarta-dish-containing-boiled-2156866411">Endah Kurnia P/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Indonesia has a lot of ingredients and spices to create plant-based menus that have <a href="https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Yqy-EAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA185&dq=indonesia+plant+based+food+healthy+standard&ots=OTjGTuKvri&sig=YfkFGxR_OhqUcpnGzGZUbFxQJ7g&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=indonesia%20plant%20based%20food%20healthy%20standard&f=false">met global healthy standards</a>. </p>
<p>Among them are <em>tempeh</em>, a traditional Indonesian food made from fermented soybeans. The fermentation <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/10/11/2865">increases its nutritional quality</a>. <em>Tempeh</em> has been known <a href="https://dcapub.au.dk/djfpublikation/djfpdf/DCArapport180.pdf">in the Netherlands</a> and already has consumers <a href="https://dcapub.au.dk/djfpublikation/djfpdf/DCArapport180.pdf">in Europe</a>. However, it is not widespread yet in the whole continent.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/food-and-drink/gado-gado-a-summery-indonesian-dish-so-good-they-named-it-twice-1.4870370"><em>Gado-gado</em></a>, the famous Indonesian salad with its authentic peanut butter dressing, has also seen an <a href="https://openresearch.ocadu.ca/id/eprint/1361/7/de_Jong_Janice_2016_MDes_SFI_MRP.pdf">emerging popularity in the global market</a>. From our fieldwork, we have learned that almost all Indonesian restaurants worldwide, such as in The Hague and Amsterdam, the Netherlands, usually have <em>gado-gado</em> on their menus.</p>
<p>Other plant-based cuisines that have potential to gain popularity abroad are <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10017684/"><em>asinan</em></a> (fruit salad preserved with vinegar) and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s42779-022-00134-7"><em>gudeg</em></a> (jackfruit stewed in coconut milk). </p>
<p>However, our observation shows that Indonesian vegan menus have yet to be widely known in Europe and other continents. Indonesia should promote them in the global market.</p>
<h2>Why Europe</h2>
<p>Plant-based food trend has been currently growing <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10408398.2020.1793730">in many industrialised countries</a>, especially <a href="https://gfieurope.org/blog/plant-based-sales-in-europe-22-growth/">in Europe</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579229/original/file-20240301-30-nd1uzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579229/original/file-20240301-30-nd1uzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579229/original/file-20240301-30-nd1uzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579229/original/file-20240301-30-nd1uzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579229/original/file-20240301-30-nd1uzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579229/original/file-20240301-30-nd1uzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579229/original/file-20240301-30-nd1uzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gudeg, a traditional Javanese dish from Indonesia’s Yogyakarta, is made from young unripe jack fruit stewed for several hours with palm sugar, and coconut milk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gudeg-traditional-javanese-dish-yogyakarta-central-2390068845">Ricky_herawan/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Europe, the value of plant-based food sales <a href="https://smartproteinproject.eu/wp-content/uploads/Smart-Protein-Plant-based-Food-Sector-Report-2.pdf">increased by 49%</a> between 2018 and 2020. This includes <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211912421000407">an expansion </a>in the market for plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy.</p>
<p>In the Netherlands, for example, sales rose by 50% during the same period. Germany and Poland have also witnessed a notable surge in the sales of plant-based food products, with an increase of 97% and 62%, respectively.</p>
<p>With the change in people’s food consumption habits, Europe can be a significant, promising market for Indonesia to expand the promotion of its plant-based food products.</p>
<h2>Taking advantage of current presence</h2>
<p>The fact that Indonesia’s culinary presence in Europe is already evident, particularly in the Netherlands, should benefit Indonesia.</p>
<p><a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/hjd/aop/article-10.1163-1871191x-bja10167/article-10.1163-1871191x-bja10167.xml">Based on our finding</a>, no less than 392 Indonesian restaurants are operating in West and South Europe, majority of which (295) is in the Netherlands. They have become popular since <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203037164-10/chinese-indonesian-restaurants-taste-exotic-food-netherlands-anneke-van-otterloo">the 1970s.</a></p>
<p>For hundreds of years, the Netherlands <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.cat-vn1116533">colonised</a> parts of what is now Indonesia. The colonial history between the two nations has created a sense of romanticism, including what and how they ate in the past.</p>
<p>Many Indonesian citizens living in European countries own Indonesian cuisine restaurants, and recently, they have started to develop plant-based menus in their kitchens.</p>
<p>The Netherlands offers a promising hub for introducing Indonesian foods and establishing Indonesian restaurants in other parts of Europe.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579230/original/file-20240301-24-rw9ry9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579230/original/file-20240301-24-rw9ry9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579230/original/file-20240301-24-rw9ry9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579230/original/file-20240301-24-rw9ry9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579230/original/file-20240301-24-rw9ry9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579230/original/file-20240301-24-rw9ry9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579230/original/file-20240301-24-rw9ry9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tofu is an Indonesian traditional food made from soybean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tahu-tofu-popular-traditional-indonesian-food-1719768151">Erly Damayanti/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As part of our observation, we visited some Indonesian restaurants in the Netherlands that are developing plant-based menus in their kitchens for <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/325478#veganism">vegans</a> and <a href="https://www.nhsinform.scot/healthy-living/food-and-nutrition/special-diets/vegetarian-and-vegan-diets/#:%7E:text=Vitamin%20B12-,Overview,including%20dairy%20products%20and%20eggs.">vegetarians</a>, in response to the <a href="https://gfieurope.org/blog/plant-based-sales-in-europe-22-growth/">rising popularity of plant-based food in European society</a>. </p>
<p>Among them were <a href="https://www.devegetarischetoko.nl">De Vegetarische Toko</a>, <a href="https://www.tokokalimantan.com/en/">Toko Kalimantan</a>, <a href="https://www.balibrunch.com">Bali Brunch 82</a> and <a href="https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-g188633-d26355683-Reviews-Praboemoelih_Indonesian_Food-The_Hague_South_Holland_Province.html">Praboemoelih</a>. They serve <em>gado-gado</em>, variants of <em>tempeh</em> and tofu and <em>tumis buncis</em> (vegetable stir-fry).</p>
<p>De Vegetarische Toko, for example, has creatively transformed some authentic Indonesian foods into vegan and vegetarian-friendly versions. They replace the meats in menus like <em>rendang</em> (slow-cooked beef stew in coconut milk and spices) and <em>semur</em> (beef stew) with <em>tempeh</em>, tofu, beans and peanuts.</p>
<p>With these creative innovations, these restaurants may have an excellent opportunity to extend and promote Indonesian plant-based meals more widely to other parts of Europe, thus supporting Indonesia’s gastrodiplomacy. </p>
<h2>More support needed</h2>
<p>Indonesia has acknowledged its gastrodiplomacy potential through several programs. </p>
<p>In 2021, Indonesia launched <a href="https://www.indonesia.travel/id/en/trip-ideas/3-things-you-need-to-know-about-indonesia-spice-up-the-world">“Indonesia Spice Up the World”</a>. It becomes the country’s first-ever concrete initiative to promote Indonesian cuisine and attract investment opportunities in local spices and herbs.</p>
<p>The initiative aims to <a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/179794/ministry-unveils-program-for-promoting-indonesian-spices-globally">increase Indonesian spice exports to US$2 billion</a>, <a href="https://www.kemenparekraf.go.id/hasil-pencarian/indonesia-spice-up-the-world-kenalkan-rempah-nusantara-ke-mancanegara">launch approximately 4,000 Indonesian restaurants abroad by 2024</a> and <a href="https://indonesia.go.id/kategori/kuliner/3599/tekad-indonesia-membumbui-dunia?lang=1">make Indonesia a culinary destination in the future.</a></p>
<p>To support this kind of initiative, the Indonesian government should regularly and intensively communicate with all stakeholders involved in the Indonesian culinary industry. The partnership should aim to support Indonesian diaspora entrepreneurs looking to start businesses in the food sector abroad. </p>
<p>One example is offering soft loans to these food entrepreneurs.
Bank BNI, Indonesia’s <a href="https://www.bni.co.id/id-id/perseroan/tentang-bni/sejarah#:%7E:text=BNI%20kini%20tercatat%20sebagai%20Bank,maupun%20total%20dana%20pihak%20ketiga.">fourth-largest bank</a>, has begun offering this kind of loan.</p>
<p>It is time for Indonesia to strengthen its international existence through gastrodiplomacy by taking advantage of the rising consumption of plant-based meals among global communities. <em>Tempeh</em>, <em>gado-gado</em>, <em>asinan</em> and <em>gudeg</em> can become a powerful weapon of Indonesia’s soft diplomacy on the global stage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meilinda Sari Yayusman receives funding by the Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andika Ariwibowo receives funding by the Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prima Nurahmi Mulyasari receives funding by the Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ahmad Nuril Huda tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>The recent surge of plant-based food consumers in Europe, particularly the Netherlands, can be a promosing further Indonesia’s gastrodiplomacy strategy of Indonesia Spice Up the World (ISUTW).Meilinda Sari Yayusman, Researcher in International Relations and European Studies, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Ahmad Nuril Huda, Lecturer, Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan LampungGregorius Andika Ariwibowo, Researcher in Research Center of Area Studies, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Prima Nurahmi Mulyasari, Researcher, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239742024-02-27T02:12:02Z2024-02-27T02:12:02ZThe biggest threat to Indonesia’s democracy? It’s not Prabowo, it’s the oligarchy<p>The day before Indonesia’s general election on February 14, former journalist and Indonesian political observer Ben Bland <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/indonesia/indonesias-democracy-stronger-strongman">argued</a> front-runner former army general Prabowo Subianto would not turn Indonesia into an autocracy if he was elected to succeed President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/prabowos-likely-victory-jokowis-effect-and-a-test-for-indonesias-democracy-223468">Prabowo’s likely victory: Jokowi’s effect and a test for Indonesia’s democracy</a>
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<p>This is because Indonesia, according to Bland, has established democratic norms that would eventually constrain Prabowo’s authoritarian tendencies. </p>
<p>As a civil society researcher and political journalist, I find his argument problematic. Bland is giving the wrong answer to the wrong question about Indonesian politics today.</p>
<p>This is not the beginning of a battle between Indonesia’s democracy and Prabowo. It is the last nail in the coffin of whatever is left of Indonesia’s <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/20-years-after-soeharto-is-indonesia-s-era-reformasi-over">reform era</a>, a period of democratic consolidation after the downfall of Suharto in 1998. </p>
<p>It has come under severe pressure from the oligarchic powers revolving around Jokowi. </p>
<h2>Civil power loses to oligarchs</h2>
<p>Prabowo’s electoral victory is, in fact, only the latest instance in a series of painful <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/03/16/indonesias-democracy-is-on-the-line-its-defenders-are-stuck-in-a-sisyphean-loop.html">defeats</a> suffered by democracy supporters.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.routledge.com/Reorganising-Power-in-Indonesia-The-Politics-of-Oligarchy-in-an-Age-of/Hadiz-Robison/p/book/9780415332538">Oligarchy</a> is <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5728/indonesia.96.0033">defined</a> as a </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“system of power relations that enables the concentration of wealth and authority and its collective defence”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In Indonesia, the modern oligarchy was formed during <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5728/indonesia.96.0033">the expansion of market capitalism</a> under the authoritarian rule of Suharto (1966-1998), which paved the way for the alliance of powerful bureaucrats and big businesses to amass wealth and power.</p>
<p>Pro-democracy activists and academics have repeatedly sounded <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2019/09/25/reformcorrupted-1569384427.html">the alarm bell</a> about the oligarchic subversion of Indonesia’s democracy. </p>
<p>But things have deteriorated under Jokowi – the so-called democratic and reformist candidate who defeated Prabowo in the <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/04/editorial-endorsing-jokowi.html">2014</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48331879">2019</a> national elections. </p>
<p>Jokowi has presided over various attempts by the oligarchy to undermine, if not dismantle, Indonesia’s democratic institutions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-requiem-for-reformasi-as-joko-widodo-unravels-indonesias-democratic-legacy-125295">A requiem for Reformasi as Joko Widodo unravels Indonesia's democratic legacy</a>
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<p>In 2019, the Indonesian parliament <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-requiem-for-reformasi-as-joko-widodo-unravels-indonesias-democratic-legacy-125295">passed a law</a> that rendered its anti-corruption body irrelevant. Considering the body a threat to their interests, the oligarchs <a href="https://360info.org/oligarchs-weaken-indonesias-fight-against-corruption/">sponsored the issuance of the controversial law</a>. </p>
<p>In 2020, it <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/whats-stake-with-indonesias-controversial-jobs-creation-law-2022-06-09/">approved an omnibus law on jobs creation</a> that <a href="https://www.newmandala.org/indonesias-omnibus-law-is-a-bust-for-human-rights/">rolled back</a> the legal achievements made by supporters of the reform movement after Suharto’s downfall. </p>
<p>Mining oligarchs — some of them are <a href="https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Booklet-Lap-bhs.ing-final-new.pdf">members of Jokowi’s cabinet</a> — supported the law because <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/10/indonesia-coal-mining-energy-omnibus-deregulation-law-oligarch/">it accommodates their interests</a>.</p>
<p>These setbacks prompted local and international scholars to say Indonesia is suffering from “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26798854">a democratic regression</a>” and facing “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00472336.2019.1637922">an illiberal turn</a>”. </p>
<p>What is more concerning is not Prabowo’s <a href="https://theintercept.com/2024/02/10/indonesia-election-results-prabowo-fraud-stolen-election/">authoritarian tendency or dislike of democracy</a> but the predatory interests of oligarchs who have put a strain on Indonesia’s democratic institutions to further their political and economic powers. </p>
<h2>Democratic decline under Jokowi</h2>
<p>Jokowi’s political shenanigans before the February election showed how fragile Indonesia’s democratic institutions are under oligarchic pressures.</p>
<p>The president has been <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/02/02/president-jokowi-accused-of-bias-interference-in-presidential-election.html">accused of interfering</a> in the election to ensure that Prabowo, who ran with Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, could win <a href="https://majalah.tempo.co/edisi/2692/2024-02-11">the race in a single round</a>.</p>
<p>For instance, the Constitutional Court <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2023/11/08/a-judicial-disgrace.html">made a controversial ruling</a> last year to allow Gibran to be Prabowo’s running mate despite the fact he was below the mandated age for running for president or vice president. The court was led by Jokowi’s brother-in-law, Anwar Usman. He was later found guilty of <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/07/breaking-ethics-council-removes-chief-justice-anwar.html">ethics breach</a> for not recusing himself from the case despite clearly having a conflict of interest.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-twist-in-indonesias-presidential-election-does-not-bode-well-for-the-countrys-fragile-democracy-216007">heavily criticised court decision</a> sparked public protests over the apparent conflict of interest.</p>
<p>Jokowi’s government was also accused of <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/02/05/president-jokowi-denies-politicizing-social-assistance.html">doling out food aid and cash handouts</a> to the public, as well as <a href="https://magz.tempo.co/read/cover-story/41561/a-clandestine-operation-for-gibran">mobilising</a> the police, military and government officials to tip the balance for the Prabowo-Gibran ticket <a href="https://magz.tempo.co/read/cover-story/41561/a-clandestine-operation-for-gibran">by pressuring village heads to support the pair</a>.</p>
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Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-crucial-issues-casting-a-shadow-over-prabowo-gibrans-likely-indonesian-election-victory-223640">7 crucial issues casting a shadow over Prabowo-Gibran's likely Indonesian election victory</a>
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<p>This does not necessarily mean Prabowo would do much worse than Jokowi in subverting democracy. Prabowo will also be constrained by the same architecture of power relations that had shaped the political choices of his predecessor. The extent to which he can rule as an autocrat depends on the power struggle among the elites.</p>
<p>Jokowi is widely seen by many as a <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/indonesia-president-jokowi-effective-democratic-governance-model-by-kishore-mahbubani-2021-10">cunning politician</a>. But still, he cannot escape the oligarchic system of power that constrains his choices. He failed to get a third term not because the idea contradicted the Constitution, but because <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2022/03/21/pdi-p-puts-brakes-on-plan-to-amend-constitution.html">the proposal for a Constitutional amendment was blocked by Megawati Sukarnoputri</a>, the leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the country’s largest political party.</p>
<p>So, it was, in fact, an intra-elite struggle and not institutional democratic safeguards that put the proposal to rest.</p>
<h2>The oligarch’s hands</h2>
<p>Jokowi’s acrobatic political manoeuvrings to help Prabowo win the election were also only made possible by the fact that the oligarchs, <a href="https://www.mongabay.co.id/2024/02/10/oligarki-tambang-dan-energi-di-balik-capres-cawapres-apa-yang-rawan-tersandera/">mainly those from the mining industry</a>, considered him a political force who can best accommodate their interests.</p>
<p>Garibaldi Thohir, a <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20240123135148-17-508309/ini-deretan-saham-milik-boy-thohir-yang-siap-dukung-pemilu-1-putaran">coal businessman</a> and the brother of State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir (a member of the Prabowo campaign team), <a href="https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-7155865/boy-thohir-sebut-djarum-sampoerna-hingga-adaro-siap-menangkan-prabowo">boasted</a> a group of businesspeople would help the Prabowo-Gibran ticket win the election in a single round. One of them through campaign fund supports.</p>
<p>These businesspeople, Garibaldi claimed, are among Indonesia’s wealthiest families, including owners of the country’s largest cigarette firms, such as <a href="https://www.techinasia.com/companies/djarum-group">the Djarum group</a>(<a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/r-budi-michael-hartono/?sh=6bed671c2cbe">owned by the Hartono family</a>). The companies <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2024/01/25/adaro-djarum-hm-sampoerna-deny-backing-prabowo-campaign.html">have denied Garibaldi’s controversial claim</a> that they backed Prabowo’s campaign.</p>
<p>This is not to say that no elements of the oligarchy were backing the other two election tickets. </p>
<p>One of Prabowo’s rivals in the presidential race, Anies Baswedan, who is also a former Jakarta governor, was mainly backed by <a href="https://projectmultatuli.org/di-balik-timnas-amin-tambang-unicorn-dan-mantan-koruptor/">media mogul Surya Paloh</a>, the leader of the NasDem Party, who also has businesses in the mining and property industries. </p>
<p>Several big names in the mining industry, such as <a href="https://swa.co.id/swa/capital-market/ini-daftar-portofolio-saratoga-milik-sandiaga-uno">Saratoga Investama Sedaya co-founder Sandiaga Uno</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20230906071931-17-469677/jadi-ketua-pemenangan-ganjar-ini-profil-arsjad-rasjid">Indonesia’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry chairman Arsjad Rasjid</a>, meanwhile, were <a href="https://projectmultatuli.org/tpn-ganjar-mahfud-mogul-media-tambang-dan-perusahaan-cangkang/">supporting another presidential candidate, Ganjar Pranowo</a>. </p>
<p>But the Jokowi-Prabowo alliance had <a href="https://projectmultatuli.org/jejaring-pengusaha-tambang-hingga-media-di-lingkaran-tkn-prabowo-gibran/">the largest support from members of the oligarchy</a>. The Prabowo campaign’s initial campaign fund at Rp 31.4 billion (US$2 million) was <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/12/22/prabowo-leads-initial-campaign-finance-data-with-2-million.html">31 times higher</a> than his main competitor Anies. It is suspected that oligarchs are <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14672715.2015.1079991">one of the main sources of political financing in Indonesia</a>. </p>
<p>It is only natural for foreign observers to be anxious about the fate of Indonesia under Prabowo. However, the real question is what the oligarchs are up to now that Prabowo is in charge. </p>
<p>At this point, Indonesia’s democracy is already in tatters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223974/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ary Hermawan tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Soeharto’s oligarchy, not Prabowo, is subverting Indonesia’s democracyAry Hermawan, Graduate Researcher, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236402024-02-16T08:18:19Z2024-02-16T08:18:19Z7 crucial issues casting a shadow over Prabowo-Gibran’s likely Indonesian election victory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575773/original/file-20240215-16-h3v0f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C3%2C666%2C400&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shinta Saragih/The Conversation Indonesia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former general Prabowo Subianto is on the verge of victory in Indonesia’s presidential election, as vote counting continues. After four election attempts and three presidential races, the 72-year-old Defence Minister is set to succeed President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who has been in power for a decade.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20240214192018-4-514376/quick-count-csis-90-lsi-denny-ja-95-prabowo-menang-1-putaran">Almost all quick count results</a> of Wednesday’s election by pollsters showed Prabowo and his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, leading at 58%, far ahead their rivals, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, who look to have obtained around 25% and 16% of votes respectively.</p>
<p>The quick counts also show Prabowo-Gibran won in 36 out of 38 provinces in Indonesia, indicating that the pair won outright in the first round. As of Friday afternoon, the pollsters have counted up to 99% of total votes.</p>
<p>We summarised the views of nine academics on seven crucial issues that have become public discussions following recent presidential and vice-presidential debates. All experts conclude Prabowo-Gibran’s ideas and work programs carry several weaknesses, posing significant risks for Indonesia’s future.</p>
<h2>1. Human rights and freedoms on the line</h2>
<p>Eka Nugraha Putra, a research fellow from the National University of Singapore and a lecturer in law at the Merdeka University of Malang, East Java, said Prabowo had been the most troubling presidential hopeful, given his poor record of human rights violations. </p>
<p>Prabowo had <a href="https://medan.tribunnews.com/2023/07/27/prabowo-subianto-akui-penculikan-aktivis-1998-ke-budiman-sudjatmiko-sudah-dikembalikan-semua">admitted his involvment</a> in the kidnapping of pro-democracy activists in May 1998 riots, but said he released them. Such a confession should not necessarily make the legal process against the case <a href="https://pbhi.or.id/mereka-yang-diculik-belum-kembali-komnas-ham-harus-panggil-prabowo-subianto-dan-budiman-sujatmiko">be dismissed</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, Prabowo’s admission should trigger the authorities to step up investigative and judicial processes to reveal the truth for the families of victims of past human rights violations who have been seeking justice for 26 years. But in fact, Prabowo seems to enjoy legal impunity.</p>
<p>Eka said it was concerning that Prabowo did not include any commitment to resolve past human rights violations in his election platform.</p>
<p>“Hoping for Prabowo to resolve the past human rights cases seems impossible. It is difficult to expect Prabowo to be able to fully protect human rights, including civil, political, economic and socio-cultural rights of the entire community,” Eka said.</p>
<p>In the context of freedom of speech and freedom of the press, a crucial part of civil liberties, Prabowo does not have a clean record.</p>
<p>Eka pointed out how in 2018, <a href="https://mediaindonesia.com/politik-dan-hukum/202418/prabowo-tuding-jurnalis-antek-penghancur-nkri">Prabowo said</a> journalists were “agents of state destruction”. He made this statement due to a lack of coverage of him coming to the <a href="https://jakartaglobe.id/news/understanding-212-movement">212 rally</a>, a massive protest by thousands of people from Muslim conservative communities against then-Chinese-Christian Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama. At that time, Prabowo’s Gerindra Party endorsed Anies, who ran in the Jakarta election backed by Muslim groups.</p>
<p>With Prabowo’s apparent one-round victory in this election, Indonesians now face the risk of seeing their freedom, and access to dialogue and criticism of laws and policies, jeopardised.</p>
<p>“Prabowo will likely extend Jokowi’s attitudes: not listening to criticism and ignoring scientific studies from academics and civil society, as well as producing legal products without in-depth studies and transparent process,” Eka concluded.</p>
<h2>2. The New Capital’s funding challenge</h2>
<p>Prabowo-Gibran’s victory means the development of the New Capital city in East Kalimantan, one of Jokowi’s signature projects, <a href="https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2024/01/04/17153061/anggaran-ikn-capai-rp-400-t-prabowo-jangan-termakan-brain-wash-pemimpin#google_vignette">will continue as planned</a>.</p>
<p>Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, argued it would be financially difficult to carry out this ambition, at least in the first year of Prabowo’s administration. </p>
<p>With many of Prabowo-Gibran’s campaign programs requiring substantial funding, including the free lunch and internet programs, money will be tight.</p>
<p>“There is still a burden from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cek-fakta-benarkah-utang-luar-negeri-indonesia-akan-jadi-warisan-yang-membebani-generasi-berikutnya-223416">debt inherited by the Jokowi administration</a>, and the interest is also very high. This burden limits the fiscal space,” explained Bhima. Fiscal space refers to the flexibility of the government in its spending choices.</p>
<p>According to him, Prabowo should set some priorities amid his many ambitious promises. </p>
<p>The New Capital project is estimated to require <a href="https://www.ikn.go.id/ksp-pembangunan-ibu-kota-baru-perlu-anggaran-rp-466-t-tak-semua-ditanggung-apbn">an investment of Rp466 trillion</a> (US$29.84 billion), with the state budget covering around 19% of the total financial needs. It will be challenging to rely on debt financing in <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/10/10/resilient-global-economy-still-limping-along-with-growing-divergences">the current global conditions</a>, with the trend in government bonds being disrupted and investors in developed countries cautious about investing.</p>
<p>“On the other hand, if we reallocate the social assistance and education budgets (to fund the new capital project), it will impede the performance of other equally important outputs,” he added.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, a doctoral candidate from the University of Manchester’s Global Development Institute in the UK, Sandy Nofyanza, said the new capital would affect the sustainability of conservation forests in the Bukit Suharto Grand Forest Park, Sungai Wain Protection Forest and industrial plantation forests in eastern Kalimantan. </p>
<p>As a result, forest cover will decrease and carbon emissions will increase. This does not include the risk of biodiversity loss due to the reduction in cover.</p>
<p>“The government might not register deforestation [in plantation forests]. However, it will show in the global data,” he explained.</p>
<h2>3. Food estate’s risk of failure</h2>
<p>Prabowo’s victory also increases the chances of continuing Jokowi’s problematic food estate project. </p>
<p>Angga Dwiartama, an expert in agricultural sociology at the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), West Java, said mass agricultural projects started in the 1950s promised lucrative food productivity. However, amid a changing climate and the risk of extreme weather, the food estate project is at high risk of failure.</p>
<p>Prabowo must reconsider the food estate project, Angga said, because Indonesia had already experienced two losses by forcing itself to boost mass agriculture: <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722068012">the Suharto-era million-hectare rice field project in Central Kalimantan</a> and the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/235/1/012086/pdf">food estate project in Merauke in Papua</a>. The latter was developed in 2010 under the administration of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Jokowi’s predecessor.</p>
<p>“With the current environmental conditions and climate change, (any project in) the agriculture sector is very vulnerable (to failure),” Angga said</p>
<h2>4. Strategies for nickel and other industries</h2>
<p>According to Krisna Gupta, a senior fellow at the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies, it seems clear Prabowo-Gibran will continue the Jokowi regime’s downstream policies, especially on the nickel industry. This has been explicitly shown in their platform and public statements.</p>
<p>Krisna said it was necessary to observe whether the pair could actually execute the strategy, because after successfully luring billion dollars of investment to support downstreaming, Indonesia’s nickel industry <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/10/14/reassessing-indonesias-nickel-downstreaming-policy/">is losing its charm</a>. </p>
<p>Jokowi’s dream to make Indonesia the world’s battery centre by maximising its nickel reserves is now facing challenges from a shift in interest from electric vehicle manufacturers to use <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/10/14/reassessing-indonesias-nickel-downstreaming-policy/">lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries</a>. </p>
<p>Additionally, given its status as one of the world’s biggest nickel producers, Indonesia’s export ban on raw nickel and the flood of semi-finished nickel products in the international market <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/ekonomi/2024/01/29/banjirnya-produk-nikel-dan-disorientasi-hilirisasi">has seen global nickel prices plummet</a>.</p>
<p>Krisna said the downstream aspirations echoed by Prabowo-Gibran were not only about nickel, but also crude palm oil, coal and digital downstreaming. One often encouraged strategy is maximising the domestic component policy to absorb these processed commodities in the domestic market.</p>
<p>However, according to Krisna, more is needed.</p>
<p>“Some of these industries are varied, and many require a wide scale that may not be sufficient if they only rely on the domestic market. This is the challenge ahead because <a href="https://unctad.org/news/global-trade-expected-shrink-nearly-5-2023-amid-geopolitical-strains-and-shifting-trade">globalisation is not going well at the moment</a>,” he explained.</p>
<h2>5. Improving teacher and lecturer welfare</h2>
<p>Hariyadi, a lecturer at Jenderal Soedirman University in Purwokerto, Central Java, said Prabowo-Gibran did include <a href="https://prabowogibran2.id/17-program-prioritas/">education</a> as one of their 17 priority programs.</p>
<p>Although the pair has pledged to improve the welfare of teachers and lecturers whose status is as a civil servant, they did not specify which aspect of welfare they wanted to improve – whether it was the certification allowance component, basic salary, other components, or adding a new element to the educators’ wage structure.</p>
<p><a href="https://jurnal.iain-bone.ac.id/index.php/mappesona/article/download/1801/952#:%7E:text=Welfare%20is%20important%20for%20teachers%20then%20teachers%20will%20be%20motivated%20to%20develop">One study</a> found increased welfare could encourage educators to improve the quality of the teaching and learning process. <a href="http://e-journal.iakntarutung.ac.id/index.php/areopagus/article/view/227/pdf">Another study in 2019</a> showed the fulfilment of adequate welfare for teachers would increase teachers’ enthusiasm when working.</p>
<p>However, <a href="http://www.jurnalalqalam.or.id/index.php/Alqalam/article/view/204/187">a quantitative study</a> showed certification allowances to improve welfare were not directly related to improved performance, because teachers spend their allowances on personal expenses rather than enhancing teaching quality.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="http://ap.fip.um.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Yulia-Triana-Ratnasari.pdf">another study</a> found the need to look at the urgency of improving the competencies of educators themselves.</p>
<p>Hariyadi concluded that although necessary, improving welfare was not the only component needed to enhance the quality of public services, especially in the education sector. </p>
<p>The welfare of teachers and lecturers is not only related to salary but also to their wellbeing, pension, social welfare, family support, and time allocated to improve professionalism, without being burdened by too much administration.</p>
<p>“Improving the professionalism of educators, both teachers and lecturers, which also needs to be done, is not mentioned in the work programs of Prabowo-Gibran,” he said.</p>
<p>Prabowo also failed to mention topics such as the appointment of contract teachers, teacher certification and the administrative burden of teachers and lecturers. Their programs also tend to favour civil servants without considering private and contract teachers.</p>
<h2>6. Protecting independent research and academic freedom</h2>
<p>Masduki, a professor of Media and Journalism from Universitas Islam Indonesia (UII), Yogyakarta, said Prabowo would extend the intervention of academic freedom in higher education institutions that Jokowi had implemented. Intellectual autonomy, he said, had so far only covered institutional matters.</p>
<p>In the presidential debates, Prabowo and his two competitors did not explain their understanding of academic freedom. The discussion about the political environment, academic autonomy and the legal environment determining academic freedom was nowhere to be found.</p>
<p>Masduki said Prabowo should acknowledge academic autonomy from the very beginning: from planning research topics and building the research environment to receiving funding not flavoured with political messages. Academics should also be free from any pressure when presenting their research results.</p>
<p>“Our task is to ensure that the agendas of academic freedom are not reduced. How, for example, professors who are now experiencing resistance, maybe not directly from the government, but from influencers and buzzers, which is typical in the Jokowi era and will certainly continue in the Prabowo era, will not happen again,” Masduki said.</p>
<p>A lecturer in international relations at Bina Mandiri University Gorontalo, Ayu Anastasya Rachman, added universities that experienced authoritarian intervention from the government often <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/184563/">faced challenges</a> in maintaining academic freedom and independence in research, resources and curriculum. </p>
<p>Without academic freedom, she said, the public will question the capacity of scientists and educators and the credibility of their work. </p>
<p>State intervention in universities can also ignite fears and encourage silence among lecturers and students. “This inhibits critical thinking and creativity in the university environment,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/demi-merawat-demokrasi-universitas-mesti-bebas-dari-intervensi-pemimpin-negara-yang-otoriter-222287">Ayu said</a>.</p>
<h2>7. Progress on helping children grow</h2>
<p>The government has targeted reducing the prevalence of <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/72#:%7E:text=Child%20stunting%20refers%20to%20a,their%20physical%20and%20cognitive%20potential.">stunting</a> (when a child who is short for their age due to malnutrition) to <a href="https://kesmas.kemkes.go.id/assets/uploads/contents/attachments/ef5bb48f4aaae60ebb724caf1c534a24.pdf">14%</a> this year. </p>
<p>However, the 2022 Survey on the Status of Nutrition Indonesia (SSGI) shows the figure is still at <a href="https://stunting.go.id/hasil-perhitungan-ikps-nasional-dan-provinsi-tahun-2022/#:%7E:text=Based%20on%20the%20Survey%20on%20Status%20of%20Nutrition,%25%20to%2021%2C6%25.">21.6%</a> – which makes this year’s target seemingly out of reach.</p>
<p>Public Health expert from Airlangga University, Ilham Akhsanu Ridlo, said that under a likely Prabowo administration, nothing much would change if he kept the “top-down” approaches as Jokowi did. “Such an approach is outdated. The collaboration aspect is less visible,” Ilham said.</p>
<p>The prevalence of stunting cannot go down quickly in only one leadership period, as it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/angka-stunting-naik-di-6-provinsi-tiga-strategi-untuk-menurunkannya-hingga-level-desa-181514">caused by many factors</a>. Reducing it will require sustainable solutions.</p>
<p>“The Health Ministry has a program for the first 1000 days of a child’s life, starting during pregnancy. Just run it, it’s a good program,” said Ilham.</p>
<p>However, Ilham added the president-elect could influence the speed of handling the problem of stunting – whether it is faster, slower, or the same as the previous government.</p>
<p>Although Prabowo included programs to improve the quality of nutrition, clean water and community sanitation to reduce stunting, his flagship program focuses more on providing free meals and milk at schools, which he called <a href="https://va.medcom.id/2023/pemilu/others/PRABOWOGIBRAN_VISI_MISI.pdf">Gerakan EMAS (Emak-Emak and Anak-Anak Minum Susu)</a>.</p>
<p>“The target (of the program) is unclear, whether (it is) to overcome stunting, malnutrition or other nutrition. They say it is for stunting, but if the child has entered school, it no longer counts as the first thousand days of life,” said Ilham. </p>
<p>Prabowo has also not set a figure on how much he wishes to reduce stunting.</p>
<p>Ultimately, budget allocations may hinder the efforts to reduce stunting, as Jokowi government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/uu-kesehatan-baru-apakah-penghapusan-anggaran-wajib-minimal-5-apbn-dan-10-apbd-tepat-saat-ini-209875">eliminated the mandatory spending for health</a>.</p>
<p>Whether stunting will be a budget priority or not will depend on the political will and interests of the elected president and the regional heads.</p>
<p><em>Rahma Sekar Andini translated this article from Bahasa Indonesia</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka look set to win the presidential election. What are the crucial issues to watch, based on their campaign promises?Ahmad Nurhasim, Health+Science Editor, The ConversationRobby Irfany Maqoma, Environment EditorAnggi M. Lubis, Business + Economy EditorNurul Fitri Ramadhani, Politics + Society Editor, The Conversation IndonesiaHayu Rahmitasari, Education & Culture EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234682024-02-14T16:06:29Z2024-02-14T16:06:29ZPrabowo’s likely victory: Jokowi’s effect and a test for Indonesia’s democracy<p>Voters in the world’s third-largest democracy, Indonesia, have elected former army general Prabowo Subianto as its eighth president, despite his campaign being dogged by accusations of human rights violations and electoral fraud. According to the <a href="https://pemilu.antaranews.com/berita/3964449/kedaikopi-prediksi-pilpres-2024-satu-putaran">latest reliable polling</a>, Prabowo – Indonesia’s defence minister – secured almost 60% of the votes in what is considered as the largest and most complex single-day election in the world. This will likely mean that there will be no second round. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-will-hold-the-worlds-biggest-single-day-election-here-is-what-you-need-to-know-208673">Indonesia will hold the world's biggest single day election: here is what you need to know</a>
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<p>More than 200 million eligible voters in more than 17,000 islands cast their votes at more than 820,000 polling stations. The one-day voting process involved 5.7 million election workers, almost the size of Singapore’s population</p>
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Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/200-million-voters-820-000-polling-stations-and-10-000-candidates-indonesias-massive-election-by-the-numbers-222604">200 million voters, 820,000 polling stations and 10,000 candidates: Indonesia's massive election, by the numbers</a>
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<p>Given the complexity of the election, General Elections Commission will announce the official result <a href="https://www.kompas.tv/lifestyle/485104/kapan-pengumuman-hasil-pilpres-dan-pileg-pemilu-2024-ini-jadwalnya-dari-kpu?page=all">on March 20</a>. But since its first direct presidential election in 2004, Indonesia has relied on quick counts to know their new president on the election day.</p>
<p>According to these preliminary results Prabowo defeated other candidates – former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who is backed by Muslim conservatives, and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, who is supported by the country’s largest political party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP).</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575625/original/file-20240214-22-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C374%2C249&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575625/original/file-20240214-22-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575625/original/file-20240214-22-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575625/original/file-20240214-22-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575625/original/file-20240214-22-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575625/original/file-20240214-22-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575625/original/file-20240214-22-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Workers pass a poster featuring three presidential candidates in the 2024 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Prabowo’s victory is a long time in the making. This is his fourth attempt to run for the country’s top jobs. He first ran as the vice presidential candidate for Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDIP chairwoman, in the 2009 presidential election. The pair lost to the Democrat Party’s chairman, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, Prabowo ran against the incumbent president, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. He lost in close elections on both occasions as Jokowi had the backing of Megawati’s party.</p>
<p>It was after his 2019 election defeat that Prabowo <a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20230912225853-617-998201/cerita-prabowo-terima-tawaran-jokowi-jadi-menhan-tak-lebih-dari-1-jam">accepted the offer</a> of a job as Jokowi’s defence minister. </p>
<p>In this year’s election Prabowo teamed up with Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, after a <a href="https://www.liputan6.com/regional/read/5267482/jokowi-tinggalkan-rumah-di-solo-jelang-deklarasi-ganjar-pranowo-capres-pdip?page=2">dispute between Jokowi and Megawati</a> over their choice of candidates. It’s an example of how unpredictable the manoeuvres by politicians in Indonesia can be to stay in power and retain their dignity.</p>
<h2>Jokowi’s factor</h2>
<p>It is amazing to see how Jokowi rose from an unknown politician back in 2005 when he <a href="https://news.detik.com/berita/d-2723501/begini-perjalanan-politik-jokowi-si-capres-kerempeng">ran as a mayor</a> of a small city of Solo in Central Java province, to become a kingmaker in the current election.</p>
<p>The Prabowo-Gibran ticket was organised with substantial involvement from Jokowi throughout. Gibran was ruled eligible to stand as a vice-presidential candidate after the constitutional court, led by Jokowi’s brother-in-law Anwar Usman, overturned a requirement that the candidates must be at least 40 so that his 36-year-old son could run. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575622/original/file-20240214-28-r46n3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575622/original/file-20240214-28-r46n3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575622/original/file-20240214-28-r46n3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575622/original/file-20240214-28-r46n3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575622/original/file-20240214-28-r46n3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575622/original/file-20240214-28-r46n3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575622/original/file-20240214-28-r46n3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Joko Widodo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Not surprisingly, the opposition cried foul. Many declared that the election was no longer about continuing Jokowi’s legacy but about <a href="https://twitter.com/msaid_didu/status/1756987736316322005/photo/1">saving democracy</a>. </p>
<p>Three days before the election, a film exposing alleged electoral fraud involving Jokowi went viral. The film alleged that Jokowi painstakingly rigged the election so Prabowo and his son could win. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Dirty Vote by activist Dandhy Dwi Laksono.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Three leading academics – Bivitri Susanti, Zainal Arifin Mochtar and Feri Amsari – who were interviewed for the movie revealed what they said were Jokowi’s various strategies. These ranged from distributing government funds to potential voters before the election to planting supporters in numerous key provinces. The film’s director, Dandhy Dwi Laksono, and the three academics <a href="https://www.liputan6.com/pemilu/read/5527648/sutradara-dan-3-pemeran-di-film-dirty-vote-dipolisikan-mahfud-paling-untuk-imbangi-situasi">have been reported to the police</a>. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for Indonesia’s democracy?</h2>
<p>Many critics <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/14/indonesia-elections-democracy-backsliding-prabowo-widodo/">are saying</a> that Prabowo’s likely victory is proof of Indonesia’s democratic backsliding. But it remains too early to make any judgements about any real democratic threat from the election. </p>
<p>But Prabowo’s chequered past has been widely discussed. He is the son-in-law of Indonesia long-term autocratic leader Suharto and has been accused of complicity in the <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20231213135152-4-496927/disinggung-ganjar-ini-13-aktivis-yang-hilang-tahun-1997-1998">disappearances</a> of 13 activists during Suharto’s presidency.</p>
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Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/on-election-eve-all-3-of-indonesias-presidential-candidates-have-troubling-human-rights-records-223326">On election eve, all 3 of Indonesia's presidential candidates have troubling human rights records</a>
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<p>Democratic safeguards introduced after the fall of Suharto’s authoritarian regime in the late 1990s and the onset of what became known as the reform era are thought likely to prevent Prabowo from becoming an autocratic ruler of Indonesia.</p>
<p>First, Prabowo is not as popular as Jokowi. </p>
<p>Unlike Jokowi, whose <a href="https://jakartaglobe.id/news/jokowi-enters-final-year-in-presidency-with-80-job-approval-poll">stratospheric approval rating of 80%</a> gave him a lot of leeway to test the limit of his power, Prabowo is not that popular. Until Jokowi gave him tacit support, Prabowo consistently placed second behind Ganjar at around 20% of the vote. It’s unlikely that Prabowo could have even achieved the runner’s up position had the election been held a year ago. Prabowo’s political party, Gerindra, sits in third place, according to the quick count, behind the PDIP and Golkar. </p>
<p>Further, Prabowo’s reputation as a strongman may have attracted many people to support him – but is has simultaneously meant that many voters are wary of him. Regardless of how <a href="https://www.globalasia.org/v18no4/feature/jokowis-complex-legacy-and-the-future-of-democracy-in-indonesia_yohanes-sulaiman">corruptible political parties are</a>, it is difficult to see that they will be willingly giving up the hard-won power that they gained in the aftermath of Suharto’s dictatorship to Prabowo.</p>
<p>And, importantly, the military does not necessarily support Prabowo. As an institution, the military has always prided itself on following the rule of law and constitution, especially after the reform era. It is difficult to see that the military may want to risk its hard-won reputation and public trust to support any moves Prabowo might make if elected to undermine democracy. </p>
<p>And the experience of Myanmar next door should give them a pause:<a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/2021-Myanmar-coup-d-etat"> the 2021 military coup in Myanmar</a> has ended up plunging the entire country into a civil war. Myanmar’s powerful military, the Tatmadaw, is losing ground steadily to armed ethnic and opposition groups. </p>
<p>The other factor to bear in mind is Jokowi’s enduring popularity. There are those who think that he might be tempted by the extent of his popular support to continue to interfere in politics via his son Gibran’s vice-presidency. There are those who feel he used non-democratic means to influence the election and secure Gibran a place on the ticket. </p>
<p>Weeks before the election, civil society organisations as well as <a href="https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2024/02/04/08381211/gelombang-kritik-para-guru-besar-soal-pemilu-2024-dan-tanda-tanya-sikap?page=all">academics</a> and activists spoke out against Jokowi for what they saw as his his political manoeuvring to retain political influence. </p>
<p>Perhaps Prabowo’s victory is a blessing in disguise for Indonesian democracy if it means people will start seriously agitating for democracy – and no longer take it for granted.</p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yohanes Sulaiman tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Based on quick counts, Prabowo Subianto and his pair Gibran Rakabuming Raka won the majority of votes at almost 60%Yohanes Sulaiman, Associate Lecturer, School of Government, Universitas Jendral Achmad YaniLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233262024-02-13T15:07:04Z2024-02-13T15:07:04ZOn election eve, all 3 of Indonesia’s presidential candidates have troubling human rights records<p>Indonesians are heading to the polls on Wednesday February 14, to vote in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-will-hold-the-worlds-biggest-single-day-election-here-is-what-you-need-to-know-208673">world’s biggest single-day election</a>. After nearly three months of campaigning, the three pairs vying for presidential and vice presidential seats are now in the cooling-off period.</p>
<p>Now the world’s third largest democracy, Indonesia has experienced the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230285910_4">past trauma of authoritarianism</a>, up until the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14434318.2021.1934780">May 1998 protests and riots</a>. That past is why the commitments of candidates to resolve human rights violations always come up during Indonesian elections.</p>
<p>Initiatives regarding human rights protection offered by the three candidates – Anies Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo – have been highly debated between voters and their supporters.</p>
<p>The debates circulate about which candidates have offered better protection for human rights. However, it is essential to note that all three candidates have poor track records on human rights issues.</p>
<h2>Anies: concerns about his backers</h2>
<p>US-graduated professor in politics Anies Baswedan, along with his running mate Muhaimin Iskandar, <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/02/08/anies-election-dark-horse-who-opposes-moving-capital.html">appears to be the dark horse</a> in the presidential race, as the pair’s electability in opinion polls has climbed to second place.</p>
<p><a href="https://mmc.tirto.id/documents/2023/10/20/1241-amin-visi-misi-program.pdf?x=2676">Their programs</a> related to human rights underlines Anies’ pledges to strengthen national human rights institutions, resolve past human rights cases and provide socio-economic recovery for victims of human rights violations.</p>
<p>Anies is the candidate with the most comprehensive details on his plans to revise regulations hindering press freedom and civil liberties.</p>
<p>However, the track records of political parties in his coalition raise questions about their human rights commitments.</p>
<p>Nasdem Party and National Awakening Party (PKB), Anies’ two most prominent endorsers, voted to pass the controversial Criminal Code. </p>
<p>An Islamic party in his coalition, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), was <a href="https://theconversation.com/conservative-rejection-of-indonesias-anti-sexual-violence-bill-misplaced-111683">the most vocal opponents</a> of an anti-sexual violence bill, the long-awaited regulation criminalising rape, including marital rape, and provides protection and supports of victims of sexual violence.</p>
<p>Anies was associated with <a href="https://ejournal.mandalanursa.org/index.php/JUPE/article/view/677">identity politics</a> when he ran in the 2017 election for Jakarta Governor, which resulted in <a href="https://www.dw.com/id/anies-korbankan-demokrasi-demi-menangkan-pilkada-dki/a-42419515">religion and race discrimination against minorities</a>.</p>
<h2>Prabowo: haunted by deadly human rights allegations</h2>
<p>Frontrunner Prabowo Subianto, who is running with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, <a href="https://mmc.tirto.id/documents/2023/10/26/1276-visi-misi-indonesia-maju-2024-final.pdf?x=2676">has pledged</a> to strengthen democracy by protecting human rights for citizens. </p>
<p>The pair have also <a href="https://mmc.tirto.id/documents/2023/10/26/1276-visi-misi-indonesia-maju-2024-final.pdf?x=2676">promised</a> to eliminate discriminatory practices, including protecting the fundamental rights of communities and vulnerable groups. </p>
<p>However, only Prabowo-Gibran have not included any program to resolve past human rights violations among all candidates.</p>
<p>Similar to the 2014 and 2019 elections, the presidential race this year is surrounded by the re-emergence of memories of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3351448">traumatic May 1998 riots</a>. Prabowo was the commander of the Indonesian army’s special force and was strongly suspected of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/indonesia-44949790">being involved in the abduction of pro-democracy activists</a> in 1998. Prabowo also ran as a presidential candidate in the past two elections.</p>
<p>A number of former members of the force’s Mawar Team, an elite team that was alleged to have <a href="https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2022/01/07/15400401/deretan-eks-tim-mawar-yang-kini-tempati-jabatan-penting?page=all">masterminded</a> the kidnapping operation, are now <a href="https://wartakota.tribunnews.com/2023/11/01/eks-anggota-tim-mawar-ketuk-palu-dukung-prabowo-gibran-di-pemilu-2024">in Prabowo’s campaign team</a>.</p>
<p>Prabowo’s political party has a crucial role in supporting the passing of the country’s controversial new Criminal Code. </p>
<p>The law is <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/08/indonesia-new-criminal-code-disastrous-rights">deemed disastrous for civilians</a>, as it forbids insulting the president, as well as <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Indonesia-s-new-criminal-code-spurs-democracy-business-concerns">banning extramarital and premarital sex and contraception</a>. </p>
<p>Legal controversy also mars Prabowo-Gibran’s candidacy through <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-judges-receive-reprimand-over-ruling-that-allowed-presidents-son-run-2023-11-07/">the breaching of constitutional ethics</a>. The country’s constitutional court ruling has been called as in favour to Gibran, President Jokowi’s son. The ruling led to a change in the minimum age requirement in the 2017 election law, which <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Indonesia-court-removes-barrier-for-Jokowi-son-s-VP-candidacy">make way for his son to run in the race</a>.</p>
<h2>Ganjar: unresolved agrarian disputes</h2>
<p>Candidate Ganjar Pranowo and his running mate, Mahfud MD, have pledged to <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-olOvmrwXLJjjlE9B_oTnCMMRVQYSuse/view">guarantee civil liberties</a>, including the freedom to express an opinion and disseminate information. However, they do not expressly state what kinds of programs they will have to achieve this.</p>
<p>Ganjar has a <a href="https://www.walhi.or.id/chronology-of-event-and-analysis-of-legal-and-human-rights-violation-of-agrarian-conflict-in-wadas">poor record on agrarian conflicts</a> during his tenure as the former governor of Central Java. </p>
<p>In 2018, he issued an environmental permit to construct the Bener Dam in Purworejo, Central Java, as part of a mining site. This triggered massive rejections from residents, who then staged protests over concerns about environmental damage for years.</p>
<p>In February 2022, as many as 60 residents (including minors) of Wadas Village, one of the villages in Purworejo, <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1559004/police-arrest-64-wadas-villagers-10-of-them-are-minors">were arrested by police</a> for allegedly rejecting the measurement of the land to be used for the mining.</p>
<p>In 2016, Ganjar issued <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/12/10/kendeng-farmers-disappointed-with-new-cement-factory-permit.html">an environmental permit</a> to build a cement factory in Rembang, Central Java. This sparked protests from farmers over concern for agricultural damages. </p>
<p>Both cases reflect <a href="https://wartaekonomi.co.id/read495827/soroti-kendeng-dan-wadas-walhi-pertanyakan-keberpihakan-ganjar-pranowo-utamakan-rakyat-atau-korporasi">his alleged favouritism to corporations</a>, rather than guaranteeing the environmental rights of the citizens.</p>
<p>Another fact is that Ganjar is endorsed and a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), now the largest party in the country. </p>
<p>The party <a href="https://kabar24.bisnis.com/read/20160216/16/519552/revisi-uu-kpk-pdip-anggap-kpk-perlu-pengaturan-agar-tak-abuse-of-power">initiated</a> the revision of the country’s anti-corruption law. The revision once <a href="https://antikorupsi.org/taxonomy/term/445">sparked massive protests</a> as it was deemed to weaken Indonesia’s corruption eradication body.</p>
<h2>No candidate is clean</h2>
<p>The three presidential and vice-presidential pairs and their supporters have yet to be entirely assertive on the issue of civil liberties and human rights protection.</p>
<p>Additionally, on the first Presidential debate held in December 2023, the candidates failed to provide substantive policies on human rights issues, <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/12/13/en-isu-ham-dinilai-masih-sebatas-komoditas-di-debat-capres">left out specific steps that would be taken if they were elected</a>.</p>
<p>Given their track records, Indonesian voters face a challenge to vote for the candidate with the clearest <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/02/08/indonesia-candidates-speak-out-human-rights">position on human rights issues</a>, given no one is thoroughly “clean” from human rights controversies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223326/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eka Nugraha Putra tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>On February 14, Indonesia’s 204 million eligible voters face a challenge in voting for the candidate with the clearest position on human rights issues.Eka Nugraha Putra, Research Fellow at Centre for Trusted Internet and Community, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226112024-02-13T07:32:48Z2024-02-13T07:32:48ZHow Muslim teachings support political dynasties in Indonesia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575147/original/file-20240212-22-xlmztf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C374%2C250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gibran Rakabuming Raka, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's oldest son (right)</span> </figcaption></figure><p>President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is the latest high-profile political figure in Indonesia to attempt to build a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20185086?seq=20">political dynasty</a>, loosely defined as a concentration of political power involving family members.</p>
<p>Jokowi’s efforts have become more evident with his first-born son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, now running as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-joko-widodo-paving-the-way-for-a-political-dynasty-in-indonesia-219499">vice presidential candidate</a> in the upcoming election this week, despite public outcry over his candidacy. </p>
<p>Gibran, who is 36 years old, entered the race after the Constitutional Court, led by Jokowi’s in-law, allowed a candidate under the age of 40 to run for president or vice president, as long as they had previously held public office. The previous age requirement for presidential and vice presidential candidates was at least 40. </p>
<p>This example is just the tip of the iceberg in the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20578911231195970">post-Suharto era</a> of Indonesian politics. The practice is entrenched within all political levels in Indonesia, especially in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZDcCewGRxs">political parties</a>. </p>
<p>As observers with a deep interest in politics and religion, we have also seen how political dynasties have become associated with public misperceptions about the values of leadership based on religious teachings. </p>
<h2>Tendency towards empire style</h2>
<p>Starting in the seventh century, monarchies like the Sriwijaya Kingdom on Sumatra island ruled in Indonesia. Islamic kingdoms then emerged in the 13th and ruled until the early 20th century.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575153/original/file-20240212-18-kmzng7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575153/original/file-20240212-18-kmzng7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575153/original/file-20240212-18-kmzng7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575153/original/file-20240212-18-kmzng7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575153/original/file-20240212-18-kmzng7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575153/original/file-20240212-18-kmzng7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575153/original/file-20240212-18-kmzng7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Muara Takus Temple is a cultural heritage, a legacy from the era of the Sriwijaya kingdom, located in Riau Province.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transitioning from a monarchical to democratic society was challenging for Indonesia because it required a mindset shift from traditional Indonesian culture to modernity.</p>
<p>Indonesians’ reluctance to accept a secular state shows the critical role of <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/bki/174/4/article-p498_9.xml?language=en">religion in politics</a>. Muslims, which comprise approximately 87% of the country’s population, are the greatest advocates for religion’s continued role in politics.</p>
<p>With religious piety in Indonesia <a href="https://ejournal.uin-suka.ac.id/isoshum/sosiologireflektif/article/view/132-03/0">increasing</a> in the last decade, the role of religion in politics and governance has only grown stronger.</p>
<p>Some Muslims still view their leaders as those who gain authority from God to rule them. Muslims are obliged to pledge loyalty in accordance with the concept of <em><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20788349">bay'ah</a></em> posed by Muslim scholars. </p>
<p>Indeed, the <em>bay'ah</em> concept is inconsistent with a modern, secular state model because the pledge can only be invalidated if a ruler resigns or dies – not with the transfer of power through elections.</p>
<p>For instance, a pledge to Sultan Daud Shah, the last sultan of Aceh, became invalid for just two causes: his death or his resignation from the Dutch colonial government. If anyone attempted to elect another ruler while the sultan was still living, it would conceptually be considered an unlawful rebellion. </p>
<p>Some Indonesian Muslims also believe that in politics, blood relations are an important determining factor for leadership.</p>
<figure class="align- centre ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575155/original/file-20240212-18-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575155/original/file-20240212-18-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575155/original/file-20240212-18-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575155/original/file-20240212-18-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575155/original/file-20240212-18-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575155/original/file-20240212-18-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575155/original/file-20240212-18-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A preacher delivers a sermon after the Eid prayer in Palembang, South Sumatra.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Muslim preachers often describe ideal leaders through parables, such as <em>Ratu Adil</em> (a messianic, just ruler in to Javanese folklore) or <em>Khulafa’ Rashidun</em> (the first four rulers in Islamic civilisation). </p>
<p>Among the leadership qualities typically highlighted by these narratives: absolute justice, enduring reigns, flawless personalities, religiosity, and facing little resistance or enjoying easy domination over adversaries. Someone who has these qualities is then seen as a good leader.</p>
<p>Since Indonesians still view leaders within this historical kingship framework, the descendants of a leader are assumed to inherit these qualities. </p>
<p>One example comes from Ustadz Adi Hidayat, a famous preacher affiliated with Muhammadiyah, the country’s second-largest Muslim organisation. He lists <a href="https://rejogja.republika.co.id/berita/rs3rmz291/lima-karakter-pemimpin-amanah-menurut-ustaz-adi-hidayat">five key traits</a> for a ruler. Three of them would not work in a republican setting, yet are entirely fitting for a pious king: religious faith, perfect morality and being divinely guided. </p>
<p>Another example is Gus Baha from <em>Nahdhiyyin</em> (affiliated with Nahdhatul Ulama, Indonesia’s biggest Muslim organisation), who frequently tells <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVhwyiwHIQQ">stories of ideal</a> rulers from the past, namely the prophet Sulaiman. He replaced his father as king and was not democratically elected. </p>
<h2>Religious influence</h2>
<p>This sort of teaching provides greater understanding of Indonesians’ beliefs around democratic government. Some cannot move on from the monarchical dynasties because they will always see the need for a leader who resembles King Sulaiman, rather than a democratically elected leader, for instance.</p>
<p>These preachers inadvertently reinforce the tendency to dynastic politics in the country. </p>
<p>In recent elections, followers of the preacher’s groups justified their votes with narratives of <a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180414183724-20-290838/ketum-mui-jokowi-jadi-presiden-atas-kehendak-allah">divine guidance</a>, emphasising a leader’s sacred rule. </p>
<p>Leaders at all levels – but especially the president – are expected to embody moral perfection and excellent charisma. Even those with strong political visions can see their support wane if they lack the right persona. People also expect these qualities to persist in a leader’s family, forming a perceived dynasty.</p>
<p>Religion will always hold a crucial role in Muslim life and politics in Indonesia. Without proper education on how democratic leadership can work through a religious lens, dynasty politics will remain morally and culturally accepted in Indonesian political circles in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>The public approval of political dynasties, especially among Muslims, is fuelled by Muslim preachers and their beliefs around what constitutes a good leader.Anggi Azzuhri, PhD candidate, Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia (UIII)Musa Alkadzim, Mahasiswa, Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia (UIII)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2119102024-02-13T02:09:32Z2024-02-13T02:09:32ZWhy has it been so difficult to create smoke-free areas in Indonesia? The answer lies in the way laws are made<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568384/original/file-20240109-23-38gv4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C12%2C4180%2C2921&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Illustration of cigarette ban. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/front-view-cigarette-bad-habit-concept_8153684.htm#query=no%20smoking%20area&position=5&from_view=search&track=ais">Freepik</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Indonesia has one of the <a href="https://www.who.int/indonesia/news/detail/30-05-2020-statement-world-no-tobacco-day-2020">highest smoking rates globally</a>. In 2021, the Ministry of Health estimated there are <a href="https://www.badankebijakan.kemkes.go.id/perokok-dewasa-di-indonesia-meningkat-dalam-sepuluh-tahun-terakhir/">69.1 million smokers</a>, the third largest number in the world behind only China and India.</p>
<p>For the past decade, the Indonesian government has introduced policies to try and address this. In 2012, it issued <a href="https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/5324/pp-no-109-tahun-2012">a regulation</a> to reduce smoking rates in the country. This included a mandatory to create smoke-free areas in all local districts. But to enact this, local authorities are required to make laws to set up smoke-free areas.</p>
<p>As of 2018 only <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32317061/">345 out of 514 districts in Indonesia</a> had issued laws on smoke-free areas in 2018. In June 2023, more than ten years after the regulation was issued nationally, <a href="https://sehatnegeriku.kemkes.go.id/baca/umum/20230608/3043211/tahun-2023-seluruh-daerah-ditargetkan-miliki-kawasan-tanpa-rokok/">13% of districts</a> were still yet to create local smoke-free area laws. </p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/18681034231185159">Our recent study</a> shows the challenges local governments face translating national laws into local laws as well as the role of local politics.</p>
<h2>Smoke-free area challenges in three provinces</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.who.int/europe/health-topics/tobacco/driving-the-creation-of-smoke-free-public-places#tab=tab_1">Smoke-free areas</a> are public places where smoking is forbidden. Breaking this rule can result in various punishments, including fines or imprisonment, depending on the local regulations.</p>
<p>We analysed smoke-free area regulations in three provinces: Aceh, Malang, East Java and Bandung, West Java, to understand how local contexts influence the trajectory of law-making.</p>
<p>Each site represents a different socio-cultural and political context in Indonesia. </p>
<p>Aceh has <a href="https://www.bps.go.id/indicator/30/1435/1/persentase-merokok-pada-penduduk-umur-15-tahun-menurut-provinsi.html">one of the highest smoking rates in Indonesia</a> and smoking plays an <a href="https://www.insideindonesia.org/forbidden-smoke">important social role</a>. Aceh also has a unique legal system based on Sharia law, requiring laws to have Islamic justifications. </p>
<p>Malang is considered one of the leading “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327701629_The_Dynamics_of_Clove_Cigarette_Industrial_Clusters_In_Indonesia">industrial clusters</a>” of cigarette manufacturing in Indonesia. </p>
<p>Bandung is neither a manufacturing hub for the cigarette industry nor part of Indonesia’s tobacco heartland. Still, it did not have a mayor who was very <a href="https://news.detik.com/berita-jawa-barat/d-2877174/ridwan-kamil-bandung-menuju-bebas-reklame-rokok">committed to reducing smoking</a>. </p>
<h2>Local differences</h2>
<p>In all three cases, there was a large gap between when the central government issued the initial national regulation in 2012 and the issuance of local laws. </p>
<p>Malang took six years to enact local regulations for smoke-free areas. At the same time, Aceh and Bandung did not issue these laws until 2021, 11 years after the initial policy was enacted.</p>
<p>Each local government must go through the formal law-making process, which requires time, money and resources to research and draft the law. </p>
<p>We found the main reason for the delay was a lack of local legislative support. Local governments are also required to discuss the proposed laws with relevant stakeholders to ensure the local community’s needs are met.</p>
<p>While some local leaders ardently championed the cause, their ability to influence local parliaments* is limited.</p>
<p>For instance, Bandung’s mayor, Ridwan Kamil, fervently endorsed anti-smoking regulations. He introduced a mayoral decree in 2017 and established a smoke-free area task force. Still, the local parliament was not keen, delaying finalising the law until 2021.</p>
<p>In Aceh, before 2019, there was little discussion of the issue, unsurprising given a considerable proportion of the province’s politicians were smokers.</p>
<p>There were also differences in the way that the laws were justified.</p>
<p>In Aceh, with the legal system based on Sharia Law, legislators had to find religious justifications for the smoke-free areas. Even though they were required to implement the law in accordance with national regulations, politicians still had to provide a religious rationale.</p>
<p>In the end, they settled on the concept of <em>Hibunnas</em>, which states humans are obligated to take care of themselves and remain healthy and capable. Through this, the law was drafted with the underlying view to protect Aceh’s citizens. </p>
<p>Laws in Bandung and Malang did not require any religious justification.</p>
<p>The case studies also suggested industry interests were also at play. For example, the drafting process in Malang was opaque, pandering to tobacco company interests and excluding stakeholders representing tobacco control concerns.</p>
<h2>Political dynamics and patchwork laws</h2>
<p>Our study also showed how making local laws is intertwined with local political dynamics. The commitment of local government politicians is crucial for steering the trajectory of regulations, often shaping the pace and nature of their inception. </p>
<p>Elections often serve as a turning point, altering the course of legislative trajectories. The 2014 national elections shifted the narrative in Malang with the rise of political parties more supportive of smoke-free areas. </p>
<p>Similar patterns were observable in Bandung and Aceh following the 2019 national elections. The election result shifted the composition of the local government towards political parties that were more pro-tobacco control.</p>
<p>Activists and bureaucrats also played a crucial role in passing smoke-free area regulations by keeping the issue on the political agenda in regions. </p>
<p>Health authorities also kept nudging local politicians to do their jobs. For example, in Malang, the municipal health office formally appealed to the local parliament, advocating for the creation of laws. </p>
<p>In Bandung, a collaboration between regional health office personnel and academics led to drafting a comprehensive law proposal. </p>
<p>In Aceh, a medical doctor, the head of the smoke-free area task force, was pivotal in pushing for the required smoke-free area laws.</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Local law-making is complex due to the legacy of political decisions made decades ago, perhaps without a complete understanding of the consequences of deregulation. </p>
<p>Our study highlights the cumbersome process of law creation. Giving local politicians responsibility for creating local laws based on pre-existing national regulations creates multiple issues, especially if they do not see it as a priority. </p>
<p>The system could be more efficient. Taking steps to delineate which laws require local consideration and which can simply be enacted nationally would save time and resources, creating more consistency across Indonesia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elisabeth Kramer receives funding from Sydney Southeast Asia Centre (SSEAC) at University of Sydney for conducting this research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anastasia Maria Sri Redjeki, Eni Maryani, Lestari Nurhajati, Masduki, dan Rizanna Rosemary tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Our recent study shows that the creation of local smoke-free areas has faced numerous challenges due to the complexities involved in translating national laws into local laws.Elisabeth Kramer, Scientia Senior Lecturer in Politics and Public Policy, UNSW SydneyAnastasia Maria Sri Redjeki, Dosen, London School of Public Relation (LSPR) JakartaEni Maryani, Dr/Head of Centre for Study of Communication, Media and Culture, Universitas PadjadjaranLestari Nurhajati, Dosen dan Peneliti Kajian Media, London School of Public Relation (LSPR) JakartaMasduki, Pengajar dan Peneliti Kebijakan Media di Program Studi Ilmu Komunikasi, Universitas Islam Indonesia (UII) YogyakartaRizanna Rosemary, PhD Candidate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223812024-02-09T06:38:56Z2024-02-09T06:38:56ZWhoever wins the presidential election, Indonesia will remain close to China<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574378/original/file-20240208-28-768nmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C2%2C374%2C239&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>The world’s third-largest democracy, Indonesia, eagerly awaits the outcome of the presidential election on Feb. 14. </p>
<p>Speculations are <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3848517/pakar-politik-gibran-efektif-meningkatkan-elektabilitas-prabowo">rife</a> that former general Prabowo Subianto and his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of the current President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, will secure the largest number of votes, despite the possibility of a runoff later this year.</p>
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Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-presidential-election-may-go-to-run-off-despite-what-the-polls-say-222380">Indonesia's presidential election may go to run-off, despite what the polls say</a>
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<p>. </p>
<p>Prabowo is running against Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo for the presidency. With the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-twist-in-indonesias-presidential-election-does-not-bode-well-for-the-countrys-fragile-democracy-216007">controversy over Gibran’s nomination</a> as Prabowo’s running mate, including <a href="https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/indonesia-66531834">accusations his father is abusing his power</a>, the former general is expected to face fierce competition from both Anies (who is backed by Muslim conservatives) and Ganjar (who is supported by the country’s biggest political party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle). </p>
<p>Regardless of the election outcome, as experts in China-Indonesia relations, we believe Indonesia’s stance towards China will likely remain steady, albeit with some minor variations depending on the victor.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574379/original/file-20240208-20-uvpmav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574379/original/file-20240208-20-uvpmav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574379/original/file-20240208-20-uvpmav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574379/original/file-20240208-20-uvpmav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574379/original/file-20240208-20-uvpmav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574379/original/file-20240208-20-uvpmav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574379/original/file-20240208-20-uvpmav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stacks of election ballot papers at a polling station in Aceh during the 2019 election.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why China will remain a vital partner</h2>
<p>Economically, China is a significant trading partner and source of investment for Indonesia, offering considerable development funds and economic opportunities. </p>
<p>In 2022, China’s investment in Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, <a href="https://nswi.bkpm.go.id/data_statistik">surged</a> to US$5.18 billion – the highest level in the past decade. While the number of Chinese-sponsored projects in Indonesia <a href="https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/01/11/investasi-tiongkok-di-indonesia-melonjak-63-pada-2022">dropped</a> from 1,800 in 2021 to around 1,580 in 2022, the monetary value of these investments skyrocketed by almost <a href="https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/01/11/investasi-tiongkok-di-indonesia-melonjak-63-pada-2022">64%</a>. </p>
<p>China’s major infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also aligns with Indonesia’s development goals, offering opportunities for infrastructure development and economic cooperation. According to <a href="https://docs.aiddata.org/reports/belt-and-road-reboot/Belt_and_Road_Reboot_Full_Report.pdf">a recent report</a>, Indonesia is one of the top recipients of BRI funding in the world, with its total debt to China now reaching $54.8 billion.</p>
<p>So, whoever wins the upcoming election will not drastically depart from Indonesia’s current foreign policy stance. Continuing the country’s friendly relations with China is both plausible and strategic. </p>
<p>Our latest <a href="https://celios.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CELIOS%20-%20Policy%20Brief%20Kandidat%20Calon%20Presiden%202024%20dan%20China.pdf">report</a> provides insight into the candidates’ potential approaches to China if elected, based on their engagements with Chinese officials in the past.</p>
<p>Prabowo has notably engaged extensively with China, meeting several times with Xiao Qian, the former Chinese ambassador to Indonesia, between <a href="https://celios.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CELIOS%20-%20Policy%20Brief%20Kandidat%20Calon%20Presiden%202024%20dan%20China.pdf">2018 and 2022</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574380/original/file-20240208-22-2pyfww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574380/original/file-20240208-22-2pyfww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574380/original/file-20240208-22-2pyfww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574380/original/file-20240208-22-2pyfww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574380/original/file-20240208-22-2pyfww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574380/original/file-20240208-22-2pyfww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574380/original/file-20240208-22-2pyfww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prabowo Subianto.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He intends to continue this engagement and seek Chinese investment in the infrastructure and food security sectors. </p>
<p>His running mate, Gibran, has had limited interactions with China himself. However, he would be associated with his father’s close ties to China, which have taken precedence during his time in office.</p>
<p>Since Jokowi became president, China has evolved into Indonesia’s largest trading partner and investor, with Chinese exports to Indonesia surging to <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports/indonesia">$71.32 billion</a> in 2022, up from less than <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20240114164004-128-505495/besok-diumumkan-bukti-jokowi-ri-bisa-kalahkan-china">$40 billion</a> in 2014. </p>
<p>Ganjar, when he was still the Governor of Central Java, discussed a number of investment cooperation, particularly in his region, with Chinese officials. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, his running mate, Mahfud MD, the coordinating minister for political, legal, and security affairs under Jokowi, has focused on sensitive geopolitical issues in his job, including legal and human rights. However, he has been <a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/business/indonesia-election-matters-for-china-relations-environment/">critical</a> of China’s policies. </p>
<p>While Chinese investments bring opportunities for development, they have also <a href="https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/articles/cw4m1k0j7vro">raised concerns</a> among some communities about environmental degradation, cost overruns and labour issues.</p>
<hr>
<p>
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<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/accidents-on-chinese-projects-are-rampant-but-why-does-indonesias-economy-still-depend-on-china-197798">Accidents on Chinese projects are rampant, but why does Indonesia's economy still depend on China?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/report-says-southeast-asias-first-high-speed-train-project-in-indonesia-is-not-friendly-for-people-with-disabilities-what-should-the-government-do-184150">$8 billion</a> high-speed railway project in the capital Jakarta, <a href="https://bandung.kompas.com/read/2022/06/17/151631078/proyek-kereta-cepat-sebabkan-banjir-dan-rusak-sekolah-pt-kcic-minta-maaf">for instance</a>, has prompted fears over increased risks of landslides and impacts on water supplies. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574381/original/file-20240208-30-bnynb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574381/original/file-20240208-30-bnynb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574381/original/file-20240208-30-bnynb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574381/original/file-20240208-30-bnynb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574381/original/file-20240208-30-bnynb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574381/original/file-20240208-30-bnynb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574381/original/file-20240208-30-bnynb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An officer stands beside a high-speed train linking Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, and Bandung in West Java.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several Chinese nickel mining projects in Central Sulawesi have also encountered opposition due to <a href="https://celios.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/CELIOS-Debt-Trap-China-in-Indonesia-report-ENGLISH.pdf">reported</a> environmental damage and adverse effects on local communities. </p>
<p>Concerns have also been raised about the <a href="https://www.mongabay.co.id/2020/03/06/nasib-orangutan-tapanuli-dengan-kehadiran-proyek-plta-batang-toru/">Batang Toru hydropower project</a> in Sumatra, which threatens the habitat of the critically endangered Tapanuli orangutan.</p>
<p>In contrast, Anies has primarily interacted with Western countries, with limited engagement with China. His vice presidential candidate, Muhaimin Iskandar, has had more interactions with Chinese officials recently, potentially compensating for Anies’ lack of experience. </p>
<p>It is expected that leaders like Anies or Ganjar may place greater emphasis on sustainable development and community engagement in Chinese-funded projects, aiming to balance economic growth with environmental protection and social welfare.</p>
<h2>Modification of China-friendly policy</h2>
<p>Given China’s rising global power status and presence in Southeast Asia, Indonesia recognises the strategic importance of engaging with China.</p>
<hr>
<p>
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<hr>
<p>.</p>
<p>However, Indonesia must maintain a delicate balance between its relations with China and its alliances with other major powers, such as the United States and regional partners like Japan and Australia. </p>
<p>By engaging with China, Indonesia aims to navigate the complexities of regional geopolitics while safeguarding its sovereignty and national interests. Striking a balance between economic development and sustainable practices will also be important in shaping its future relations with China. </p>
<p>Whoever is elected must acknowledge Indonesia’s bargaining power with China.</p>
<figure class="align- centre ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574383/original/file-20240208-26-ttbnrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574383/original/file-20240208-26-ttbnrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574383/original/file-20240208-26-ttbnrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574383/original/file-20240208-26-ttbnrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574383/original/file-20240208-26-ttbnrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574383/original/file-20240208-26-ttbnrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574383/original/file-20240208-26-ttbnrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Panoramic cityscape of Indonesia’s capital city Jakarta at sunset.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indonesia boasts the largest economy in Southeast Asia. It also has a significant position as a member of the G20 group of major economies, reflecting international confidence in its economic strength. In addition, Indonesia’s strategic location makes it a crucial part of China’s BRI ambitions.</p>
<p>By leveraging its strategic position and engaging in meaningful dialogue with China, Indonesia can pave the way for mutually beneficial cooperation that promotes sustainable development and prosperity for both nations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222381/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Indonesia’s stance towards China is poised to remain steady, albeit with nuanced variations depending on the victor.Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Researcher, Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS)Yeta Purnama, Researcher, Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223802024-02-06T05:21:58Z2024-02-06T05:21:58ZIndonesia’s presidential election may go to run-off, despite what the polls say<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573264/original/file-20240204-29-8abu5j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C374%2C210&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>In less than two weeks, Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, will simultaneously hold presidential and general elections. Held on Valentine’s Day, it is being touted as the world’s biggest single-day election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
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Baca juga:
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</p>
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<p>With three presidential candidates running, the current electoral rules <a href="https://www.hukumonline.com/berita/a/ini-skenario-bila-pilpres-2024-digelar-dua-putaran-lt659d67651a12f/">require</a> a candidate to win at least 50% of the national vote and at least 20% of the vote in each province to avoid a runoff.</p>
<p>The country’s various polling institutions <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20240129132122-4-509823/18-hasil-survei-terbaru-pilpres-2024-anies-vs-prabowo-vs-ganjar">have forecast</a> that the frontrunner, former general Prabowo Subianto, and his vice-presidential candidate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, will likely win the first round. But whether they will get enough votes to win the election outright or be forced into a runoff is still unclear. </p>
<p>They are competing against two other pairs of candidates – Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor, and his running mate, Muhaimin Iskandar; and Ganjar Pranowo, the former Central Java governor, and his running mate Mahfud MD. </p>
<p>A credible polling institute, Lingkaran Survei Indonesia (LSI), <a href="https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2024/01/31/08364751/survei-lsi-denny-ja-anies-muhaimin-22-persen-prabowo-gibran-507-persen">predicts</a> Prabowo could squeak out an outright victory in the first round with 50.7% of the vote. This was based on a survey of
1,200 respondents.</p>
<p>Another well-respected pollster, Indikator, shows Prabowo <a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20240201161340-617-1057271/survei-indikator-politik-prabowo-gibran-unggul-562-persen-di-jatim">garnering 56.2% of the votes in East Java</a>, the electorate with the second-highest number of voters in the country. </p>
<p>Indikator’s latest projection has also slightly revised an earlier national poll showing that Prabowo is <a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20240121164034-617-1052398/8-hasil-survei-terbaru-elektabilitas-anies-prabowo-ganjar-januari">very close to winning the election outright</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573265/original/file-20240204-23-au9rhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573265/original/file-20240204-23-au9rhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573265/original/file-20240204-23-au9rhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573265/original/file-20240204-23-au9rhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573265/original/file-20240204-23-au9rhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573265/original/file-20240204-23-au9rhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573265/original/file-20240204-23-au9rhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman casts her vote in an election in Pekalongan, Central Java.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite the major pollsters’ predictions, it is still too early to declare he will definitely win the presidency in the first round for at least two reasons.</p>
<p><strong>First</strong>, a poll is simply a poll – a sampling of a tiny number of people to predict the entire population’s preferences. </p>
<p>Based on their performances so far, it is doubtful that credible polling institutes like Indikator and LSI have gotten their methods wrong. Far from it, they have done everything possible to get the most accurate results. </p>
<p>But they may fail to accurately capture the bigger picture simply due to the variable nature of voters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
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Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-third-of-indonesian-voters-bribed-during-election-how-and-why-100166">A third of Indonesian voters bribed during election – how and why</a>
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<p>In contrast to what <a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20230607141641-617-958782/rocky-gerung-sentil-survei-tipu-tipu-bos-smrc-indikator-buka-suara">conspiracy theorists</a> may insinuate about the credibility of polling institutes in Indonesia, a national survey is merely a representative snapshot based on a sampling of a limited number of voters. This is why there is a margin of error. </p>
<p>Take, for example, Indikator’s prediction of the support for the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in the 2019 legislative election. A few weeks before the election, Indikator predicted the PKS <a href="https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2019/03/26/09451171/elektabilitas-parpol-menurut-survei-terbaru-tiga-lembaga#google_vignette">would receive</a> 6% of the vote nationally. In reality, <a href="https://www.kominfo.go.id/content/detail/18852/kpu-tetapkan-rekapitulasi-perolehan-suara-nasional-pilpres-2019/0/berita">the party received 8.21%</a>. </p>
<p>Indikator’s prediction was still within the margin of error of 2.9%, meaning the the model worked as it should. </p>
<p>In this year’s election, PKS is supporting Anies. With PKS’s voters concentrated in several areas, Anies’ share of the votes may actually be higher than what is reflected in the polls. Thus, the total votes received by Prabowo may vary enough to prevent him from winning the election outright.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573266/original/file-20240204-19-utn1on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573266/original/file-20240204-19-utn1on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573266/original/file-20240204-19-utn1on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573266/original/file-20240204-19-utn1on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573266/original/file-20240204-19-utn1on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573266/original/file-20240204-19-utn1on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573266/original/file-20240204-19-utn1on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anies Baswedan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Furthermore, even at this point, there are still a significant number of voters (<a href="https://indikator.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/RILIS-INDIKATOR-JAWA-TIMUR-01-FEBRUARI-2024.pdf">about 5.78% nationally</a> and <a href="https://indikator.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/RILIS-INDIKATOR-18-JANUARI-2024.pdf">12.1% of voters in East Java</a>) whose preferences remain unclear.</p>
<p><strong>Second,</strong> it’s still too early to declare Prabowo the winner is the fact that candidates may still make blunders in the final two weeks, which could impact their chances.</p>
<p><a href="https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2023/12/23/16020291/debat-cawapres-kuatnya-mahfud-asertifnya-gibran-dan-muhaimin-tak-meyakinkan?page=all">In the latest vice-presidential debate</a>, for instance, Gibran faced a significant backlash from the public after disrespecting Mahfud MD, a seasoned professor much older than him. Being disrespectful towards older people is still frowned upon in conservative Indonesia. </p>
<p>While it is unclear how many votes Prabowo may have lost due to this show of disrespect, <a href="https://m.jpnn.com/news/spanduk-penolakan-terhadap-gibran-ramai-di-jatim-madura-ternyata-ini-penyebabnya?page=2">anecdotal evidence</a> suggests there is a growing dislike of Gibran among some voters – especially ethnic Maduranese, Mahfud MD’s ethnic group.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/12/18/prabowo-in-hot-water-for-mocking-anies-at-gerindra-gathering.html">The question of ethics</a> surrounding the Prabowo-Gibran pairing also continues to dog their reputation among the public. </p>
<p>Gibran, the 36-year-old son of current President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, secured his candidacy following a controversial decision by the <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/10/16/breaking-constitutional-court-opens-door-for-jokowis-son-to-run-in-presidential-poll.html">Indonesian Constitutional Court</a> to lower the age limits for both presidential and vice-presidential candidates to below 40. The court was led at the time by Jokowi’s in-law, Anwar Usman, who was demoted over the controversial ruling following a public protest. </p>
<p>There are also <a href="https://twitter.com/faridgaban/status/1753594174144966978?s=20">growing concerns that Jokowi is abusing his powers</a> to support his son. For example, Jokowi <a href="https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/articles/cy7wvegjydvo">increased</a> the salaries of civil servants and military officers in late January in what some believe to be an attempt to sway their votes. The military officers cannot vote, but their families can. </p>
<p>Some analysts have also questioned <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00074918.2018.1549918">Jokowi’s apparent authoritarian turn</a> in recent weeks, prompting Prabowo’s opponents to see this election as an important choice between democracy and authoritarianism. </p>
<p>Anies <a href="https://www.viva.co.id/berita/politik/1667046-prabowo-ke-anies-kalau-jokowi-otoriter-anda-tak-mungkin-jadi-gubernur">even brought this issue up in the first debate</a> as a way to frame this election – obviously to his benefit. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ypBgjIL_nP4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Universitas Islam Indonesia rector Fathul Wahid shares his concerns on President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s latest stunts to support his son running as a vice presidential candidate. Fathul’s protest was followed by other universities across the archipelago.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Professors at universities across Indonesia <a href="https://kabar24.bisnis.com/read/20240203/15/1738013/deretan-perguruan-tinggi-tuntut-jokowi-netral-jelang-pilpres-2024">have also conveyed</a> their grave concerns on these recent political moves by Jokowi. </p>
<p>Considering none of the latest polls are strongly indicating an outright Prabowo victory, a runoff in the presidential election is still likely. This would be even more likely if Prabowo or Gibran commit another blunder in the coming days. </p>
<p>With an election this close, Prabowo and his team should be far more concerned about winning the election in round one than being overly confident and perhaps losing in a runoff months down the road.</p>
<p><em>The article has been updated to add details about the voting rights of Indonesian military personnel and their families.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yohanes Sulaiman tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Pollsters are pointing to a Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming victory in round one, but it remains to be seen whether they have enough votes to avoid a second round.Yohanes Sulaiman, Associate Lecturer, School of Government, Universitas Jendral Achmad YaniLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196012024-02-05T02:02:39Z2024-02-05T02:02:39ZIndonesia’s plan to ban seaweed exports could backfire – hurting its own industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566788/original/file-20231220-27-gfkjl5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C11%2C3814%2C1614&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Farmers bringing seaweed to shore in Nusa Tenggara Timur in December 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zannie Langford</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Indonesia, <a href="https://fppn.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s43014-022-00103-2">the world’s second-largest seaweed producer</a>, plans to introduce a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesias-jokowi-push-domestic-seaweed-processing-including-fuel-2023-11-02/">nationwide export ban</a> on seaweed, following a ban <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105561">at a provincial level</a> in 2022. </p>
<p>President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo argued in November that the ban would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesias-jokowi-push-domestic-seaweed-processing-including-fuel-2023-11-02/">encourage investment in domestic seaweed processing</a>, as part of a larger suite of export restrictions.</p>
<p>However, my <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860">research on seaweed value chains in Indonesia</a> suggests that an export ban on Indonesian seaweed would adversely impact domestic seaweed production. Seaweed farming is <a href="https://www.fao.org/fishery/en/knowledgebase/150">Indonesia’s largest marine aquacultural activity</a>, representing US$1.89 billion of the total $2.05 billion Indonesian marine aquaculture production annually. Over the last twenty years, it has grown rapidly and now supports the livelihoods of around <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860-1">62,000 farmers</a>, as well as many more people in coastal communities who work as <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860-11">casual wage labourers</a> in the industry. </p>
<p>An export ban is likely to lead to lower commodity prices, turning some of those farmers to other sources of income and reducing national production. It also would not ultimately support domestic processors to compete with large foreign companies operating in Indonesia to access seaweed supplies. </p>
<h2>The threat to prices and production</h2>
<p>Over the last decade, the Indonesian government has considered export bans to prevent the sale of unprocessed seaweed to the global market. So far, these policies have yet to be implemented nationally. </p>
<p>However, Nusa Tenggara Timur implemented a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105561">provincial ban</a> on seaweed exports in 2022. </p>
<p>Governments usually introduce export bans to support domestic value-adding by protecting industries from international competition.</p>
<p>Just <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860">one-third</a> of Indonesia’s seaweed production is processed domestically, with the remainder being shipped internationally. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://pair.australiaindonesiacentre.org/research/seaweed-industry/">collaborative multidisciplinary research</a> on seaweed value chains since 2020 has explored how international and national industry and policy dynamics affect farmer livelihoods. The research involved a detailed examination of seaweed value chains in Indonesia to understand what global and regional factors influence pricing and farmer livelihoods.</p>
<p>When export restrictions are introduced, farmers can no longer sell to international buyers at the world market price. Instead, they must sell at the price set by domestic demand. </p>
<p>With fewer buyers competing for products, Indonesian seaweed prices would immediately reduce from the higher world price (shown as 1 in the diagram below) to the price set by local Indonesian demand (shown by 2).</p>
<p>As seaweed farmers are very responsive to changes in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2021.737828">prices</a>, they can easily choose not to grow any more seaweed if prices are low. This means that when prices drop, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860-10">production drops too</a>, since farmers aren’t motivated to produce as much seaweed. </p>
<p>They can take their profits from seaweed and invest them in other activities, such as marine fishing or farming of shrimp and fish in ponds. They may produce seaweed only in more favourable areas and seasons, and are less likely to persist when yields are low. </p>
<p>If that happens, over time seaweed production would decrease, competition for seaweed would increase, and prices would rise again – but not to the same level as before the ban.</p>
<p>The effects of this are shown below: prices would at first drop significantly, then rise again as production falls. Price and production would then stabilise at lower levels.</p>
<p>As a result, an export ban is likely to lower the prices seaweed farmers receive, as well as shrink Indonesia’s total seaweed production.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-is-the-worlds-largest-seaweed-producer-but-why-are-prices-so-volatile-171961">Indonesia is the world’s largest seaweed producer but why are prices so volatile?</a>
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<h2>Competition from within Indonesia</h2>
<p>The export ban is proposed to support domestic value-adding by reducing competition for raw materials. However, ultimately, Indonesian seaweed processors will still have to compete with large, foreign-owned companies based in Indonesia. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860-3">Seaweed processing</a> in Indonesia is dominated by large, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10811-023-03004-0">Chinese-owned companies</a>, which have many staff and high costs. </p>
<p>Foreign-owned companies control around half of all seaweed processing in Indonesia. These companies are, on average, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860">four times larger than domestic companies</a>. They cannot easily stop production, so they will try to keep buying seaweed as supply drops, and usually will be willing to pay more than smaller, local companies. </p>
<p>These factors suggest that a ban on raw seaweed exports may not help domestic processors to compete with foreign-owned businesses. Any companies pursuing alternative uses for seaweed – such as bioethanol, biostimulants or bioplastics – would also need to compete with these large Chinese-owned processors. </p>
<h2>Alternative ways to grow seaweed production</h2>
<p>Instead of implementing restrictive agricultural trade policies, the Indonesian government could consider other ways of encouraging the sector’s growth – such as by helping farmers become more productive and sustainable. </p>
<p>For instance, the government can support domestic processors in upgrading to more efficient processing technologies. They can also invest in research and development in the sector.</p>
<p>The Indonesian government already does this in several ways: for example, by <a href="https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/108806/perpres-no-33-tahun-2019">supporting research into alternative products</a> from seaweed, like bioethanol. </p>
<p>However, many of these technologies are currently still too expensive to be implemented. To make bioethanol, it is necessary to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121763">break down the tough cell wall of seaweed</a>. This is energy-intensive and often expensive. This means that it is cheaper to produce bioethanol from products other than seaweed. </p>
<p>Developing economically viable alternative products from seaweed will need sustained investment in improving processing economics, not short-term market intervention.</p>
<p>There are other ways to support the growth and efficiency of the seaweed industry. For example, implementing <a href="https://koneksi-kpp.id/en/developing-applications-of-satellite-imagery-for-modelling-environmental-and-social-impacts-of-climate-change-on-seaweed-farming-in-indonesia/">a national system</a> for satellite monitoring of marine aquaculture could help us understand <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104431">how farmers respond</a> to long-term and seasonal changes to better support farmer production and resilience to climate change. </p>
<p>Digital technologies may provide opportunities to improve the productivity and resilience of smallholder seaweed farming, but need to be designed to benefit seaweed farmers and coastal communities.</p>
<p>Seaweed farming plays an important role in supporting coastal community livelihood and adaptation to climate change, as well as in the Indonesian government’s rural development and blue economy initiatives.</p>
<p>Maintaining sustainable growth of the Indonesian seaweed industry will require a nuanced understanding of seaweed <a href="https://pair.australiaindonesiacentre.org/research/increasing-incomes-in-carrageenan-seaweed-value-chains-in-takalar-south-sulawesi/">supply and demand</a>, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Globalisation-and-Livelihood-Transformations-in-the-Indonesian-Seaweed/Langford/p/book/9781032025469">farmer livelihoods</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-01-2023-0011">farmer technology uptake</a>, as well as <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003183860-3">the global market</a>. This is not a short path, but a more sustainable one in the long term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zannie Langford receives funding from the Australian Government through the KONEKSI (Collaboration for Knowledge, Innovation, and Technology Australia and Indonesia) program, Australia’s flagship program in the Indonesia knowledge and innovation sector funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) Australia. KONEKSI supports partnerships between Australian and Indonesian organisations to increase the use of knowledge-based solutions for inclusive and sustainable policies and technologies.
Her research in Indonesia has also been supported by the Australian Government through the Australia-Indonesia Centre's Partnership for Australia Indonesia Research, and by the ANU Indonesia Project and SMERU research institute.</span></em></p>Instead of supporting Indonesia’s seaweed industry, an export ban could lower prices and reduce supply, without helping domestic processors to compete with foreign-owned companies.Zannie Langford, Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183572024-02-02T02:17:39Z2024-02-02T02:17:39ZHow will Indonesia’s presidential election reshape its foreign policy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572714/original/file-20240201-27-dr6t1r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C374%2C250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-professor-the-general-and-the-populist-meet-the-three-candidates-running-for-president-in-indonesia-217811">The three candidates</a> running in Indonesia’s presidential election – Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto – are in the last week of campaigning before the February 14 poll. </p>
<p>As current President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo approaches the end of his second term in office, questions about the trajectory of Indonesia’s foreign policy have also emerged, particularly whether his successor will continue or change the country’s relations with China, the US and its neighbours.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-professor-the-general-and-the-populist-meet-the-three-candidates-running-for-president-in-indonesia-217811">The professor, the general and the populist: meet the three candidates running for president in Indonesia</a>
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<p>Continuing the tradition of his predecessors, Jokowi has emphasised Indonesia’s “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20030977">free and active</a>” foreign policy, a peace-promoting and non-alignment approach introduced in 1948 by the country’s first vice president, Mohamad Hatta.</p>
<p>In 2022, Jokowi attempted to be a <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2022/06/19/jokowi-set-to-play-an-unexpected-global-role-as-peacebroker.html">peacebroker</a> in the Russia–Ukraine war. He <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/explainer-why-indonesia-s-leader-is-visiting-kyiv-moscow/6640961.html">visited</a> both countries and <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/ukraines-zelenskyy-says-indonesian-president-invited-him-to-g20-meet/">invited Ukraine</a> to attend the G20 summit in Bali.</p>
<p>At a regional level, the ASEAN bloc, under Indonesia’s chairmanship this year, is trying to <a href="https://j-innovative.org/index.php/Innovative/article/view/5471/3918">maintain a neutral relationship</a> between the United States and China, continuing to prevent any potential conflicts from arising and ensuring regional stability.</p>
<p>So far, the three presidential candidates running in this year’s election have said they will maintain Indonesia’s <a href="https://kemlu.go.id/washington/en/pages/kebijakan_luar_negeri_ri/716/etc-menu">“free and active” foreign policy</a> tradition. But are there any areas where they differ?</p>
<h2>Anies: no more pragmatism</h2>
<p>Anies is an academic-turned-politician and former governor of Jakarta, who was widely believed to be <a href="https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=LVe_DwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA155&dq=anies+back+by+muslim+conservative&ots=vcx09GNI0P&sig=MEkFmYsmvDu4O667ui-YRmKuGNk&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">backed by Islamist conservative groups</a> during his governorship election campaign. </p>
<p>When <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISfjRiXASX8">presenting his foreign policy platform</a>, he criticised the government’s current approach, calling it “<a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/08/indonesias-diplomacy-must-be-value-led-not-transactional-says-anies.html">excessively pragmatic and transactional</a>”.</p>
<figure class="align- centre ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572717/original/file-20240201-17-pcdk1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572717/original/file-20240201-17-pcdk1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572717/original/file-20240201-17-pcdk1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572717/original/file-20240201-17-pcdk1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572717/original/file-20240201-17-pcdk1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572717/original/file-20240201-17-pcdk1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572717/original/file-20240201-17-pcdk1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Billboard showing the presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 election.</span>
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<p>After Jokowi secured the presidency in 2014, he <a href="https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/a-retreat-from-multilateralism-foreign-policy-restructuring-under-jokowi/">departed from his predecessor’s policy of embracing multilateralism</a>, which he believed had brought little benefit to the Indonesian economy. </p>
<p>This is why he decided not to attend <a href="https://www.voaindonesia.com/a/sidang-umum-pbb-kenapa-presiden-jokowi-selalu-absen-ke-new-york/7281995.html">several prestigious international forums</a> and focused more on <a href="https://intermestic.unpad.ac.id/index.php/intermestic/article/view/223">economic diplomacy</a> and improving <a href="https://www.scitepress.org/Papers/2018/102758/102758.pdf">bilateral relationships</a> with countries, thinking this would bring more economic benefits to Indonesia. </p>
<p>In contrast to Jokowi’s pragmatic approach, Anies wants to “globalise” Indonesia by taking more leadership roles in addressing global issues. His foreign policy would focus on elevating Indonesia’s role and participation in international affairs and the global order.</p>
<p>For example, Anies wants Indonesia to be a front-line leader in ASEAN to ensure a <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/08/indonesias-diplomacy-must-be-value-led-not-transactional-says-anies.html">peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific</a> region for the long term and make ASEAN the centre of dialogue between major powers.</p>
<h2>Prabowo: good-neighbour policy</h2>
<p>Prabowo was a general in the Indonesian military during former President Suharto’s authoritarian era. He was Jokowi’s rival during the 2014 and 2019 elections, but they have since become allies. Prabowo is running with Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, in next month’s contest.</p>
<p>Under his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpZdLC2tRRI">foreign policy platform</a>, Prabowo has pledged to sustain Indonesia’s <a href="https://kemlu.go.id/washington/en/pages/kebijakan_luar_negeri_ri/716/etc-menu">“free and active” foreign policy</a> while strengthening the country’s defence.</p>
<p>This foreign policy direction may have been widely expected, given his military background and current position as minister of defence.</p>
<p>But similar to Anies, Prabowo’s approach also focuses on Indonesia’s role in regional stability. He wants Indonesia to be “a good neighbour” and maintain stable relationships with its neighbours in Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>He would also likely continue Jokowi’s foreign affairs approach of <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/jokowi-2-0-indonesia-amid-us-china-competition/">being reluctant</a> to choose sides in the global superpower rivalry.</p>
<p>Prabowo has emphasised how Indonesia must respect the US and its western allies, as well as China. He has also <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpZdLC2tRRI">mentioned</a> how India and Russia are important partners for Indonesia, as well as African countries that share the same colonisation experience.</p>
<figure class="align- centre ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572720/original/file-20240201-15-htfoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572720/original/file-20240201-15-htfoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572720/original/file-20240201-15-htfoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572720/original/file-20240201-15-htfoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572720/original/file-20240201-15-htfoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572720/original/file-20240201-15-htfoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572720/original/file-20240201-15-htfoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Frontrunner and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto (right) and Joko Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, registering themselves as candidates for the election.</span>
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<p>Prabowo is the only candidate who deliberately and openly discusses the importance of being a good neighbour. Under his leadership, Indonesia would therefore need to show that its presence in the region is non-threatening to neighbouring countries.</p>
<h2>Ganjar: redefining a ‘free and active’ foreign policy</h2>
<p>Ganjar is the former governor of Central Java, Indonesia’s second-largest province, and is endorsed by the country’s largest political party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).</p>
<p>Ganjar’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HNhR1ZYjl4">foreign policy platform</a> focuses on <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-olOvmrwXLJjjlE9B_oTnCMMRVQYSuse/view">four pivotal global issues</a>: the regression of democracy, global inequality, economic decline and escalating conflicts in certain regions. </p>
<p>He specifically draws attention to the intensifying tensions in Asia, pinpointing the worsening relations between North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and the South China Sea dispute.</p>
<p>Ganjar also aims to maintain Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy, but with a slight revamp to align it with the current geopolitical situation and make it more effective. This includes formulating strategies on how Indonesia can be more proactive – not passively responsive – in international affairs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572722/original/file-20240201-19-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572722/original/file-20240201-19-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572722/original/file-20240201-19-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572722/original/file-20240201-19-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572722/original/file-20240201-19-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572722/original/file-20240201-19-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572722/original/file-20240201-19-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ganjar Pranowo on the campaign trail.</span>
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</figure>
<p>The platforms of each candidate have provided a glimpse into Indonesia’s future foreign policy trajectory. A continued “free and active” foreign policy will likely prevail, regardless of the upcoming election outcome. However, each contender has also emphasised certain priorities that set them apart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hangga Fathana tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>The three presidential candidates share a similar approach to Indonesia’s foreign relations, but there are key differences.Hangga Fathana, Assistant Professor in International Relations, Universitas Islam Indonesia (UII) YogyakartaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118962024-01-28T18:03:45Z2024-01-28T18:03:45ZHate speech is likely to intensify on social media ahead of Indonesia’s election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549262/original/file-20230920-21-z0r5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C5576%2C2650&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Illustration of online hate speech.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fake-news-sharing-cyber-bullying-hate-2257240445">winnond/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Indonesia’s general election draws closer, the spread of hate speech targeting political figures is expected to intensify, similar to <a href="https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/iccd-19/125919037">what happened in the 2019 election</a>.</p>
<p>The UN defines <a href="https://www.un.org/en/hate-speech/understanding-hate-speech/what-is-hate-speech#:%7E:text=To%20provide%20a%20unified%20framework,person%20or%20a%20group%20on">hate speech</a> as any communication that attacks an individual or uses pejorative or discriminatory language against an individual based on their religion, ethnicity, nationality, race, colour, descent or gender.</p>
<p>During the 2019 election, there were more than <a href="https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1039&context=jsgs">200,000 mentions on X</a> containing hate speech targeted at the presidential, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, in addition to their vice presidential candidates.</p>
<p>That accounted for around <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/in_id/topics/events/2019/124-juta-tweet-seputar-pemilihan-umum-2019">0.2%</a> of the total election-related tweets in 2019. By comparison, hate speech accounted for between <a href="https://csmapnyu.org/news-views/news/did-hate-speech-on-twitter-rise-during-and-after-trump-s-2016-election-campaign">0.1% and 0.3%</a> of the one billion total election-related tweets during the US presidential election in 2016.</p>
<p>As part of my role as a fellow researcher for the <a href="https://greaterinternetfreedom.org/">Greater Internet Freedom (GIF) Harmful Speech Monitoring project</a>, which is backed by the independent media nonprofit <a href="https://internews.org/areas-of-expertise/disinformation-misinformation/">Internews</a>, I believe a similar pattern will emerge before next month’s Indonesia election based on my observations of social media platforms last June and July.</p>
<p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/183yUIXhncG2P3sGaEyG5JN70HL1fa1Zl6Epwzs2lYhE/edit#gid=0">My research</a> found at least 60 instances of hate speech (predominantly on X, formerly Twitter), with 45 of these messages containing political overtones. Several offensive comments were directed at the three presidential hopefuls – Prabowo, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. This happened even before the three were officially named as candidates by Indonesia’s election commission.</p>
<h2>Hate speech against presidential contenders on X</h2>
<p>My research focuses on X because according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies’ <a href="https://mediaindonesia.com/politik-dan-%20Hukum/622252/publik-masih-beli-information-sesat-di-media-social">National Survey Report</a>, it contains the most disruptive information compared to other social platforms.</p>
<p>I used <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336094446_Using_keywords_analysis_in_CDA_evolving_discourses_of_the_knowledge_economy_in_education#fullTextFileContent">keyword and contextual analysis</a> to identify hate speech in my research. </p>
<p>I used keywords like the politicians’ names (“anies baswedan”, “anies”, “prabowo subianto”, “prabowo”, “ganjar pranowo”, “ganjar”), as well as other common phrases like “pilpres” or “pemilihan presiden” (presidential election) and “pemilu 2024” (election 2024).</p>
<p>By August 31, 2023, the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/183yUIXhncG2P3sGaEyG5JN70HL1fa1Zl6Epwzs2lYhE/edit#gid=0">60 hate speech posts</a> I had identified had been shared 6,827 times on X, YouTube and TikTok.</p>
<p>One pseudonym account, for instance, posted <a href="https://twitter.com/MJOEJOEF/status/1683403332214456321">hateful content</a> about Ganjar being a liar and pornography addict. It was in response to Ganjar’s <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/12/04/happy-happy-husbands-central-java-governor-says-porn-ok-for-married-men.html">statement</a> in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksbAAktR27U">a YouTube podcast</a> in 2019 that “there is nothing wrong with watching porn” and “I like it”. The majority of Indonesians <a href="https://www.neliti.com/publications/63228/pornography-manifestation-in-internet-media-content-analysis-on-popular-local-po">consider</a> watching porn as morally unacceptable.</p>
<p>Another anonymous account spread <a href="https://twitter.com/roby_bakar3000/status/1674627710214340608">negative sentiments</a> about Prabowo, a former army general and the current defence minister, regarding his role in the purchase of used fighter jets, which lately <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-confirms-buying-used-fighter-jets-800-million-after-deal-criticised-2023-06-14/">sparked public criticism</a>.</p>
<p>The posts used hashtags like #Prabohong #Bahaya (Prabowo is a liar and dangerous). Platform X then suspended the account because it violated the platform’s <a href="https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/hateful-conduct-policy">hateful profile policy</a>.</p>
<p>Anies, a popular former governor of Jakarta, was also targeted by hate speech on X. He was <a href="https://talenta.usu.ac.id/politeia/article/view/1083">endorsed</a> by <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2019_49.pdf">hardline Islamist groups</a> in his 2017 race for the governorship, which <a href="https://journal.uinsgd.ac.id/index.php/jispo/article/view/8923">helped him</a> win.</p>
<p>In July, a troll account with nearly 42,000 followers posted a one-minute video of Anies with several Muslim religious leaders at an event. The religious leaders mentioned Anies was the only governor in the world who received 65 awards in a year, which the account user said was a lie, using the hashtag #GubernurTukangNgibul (a lying governor). </p>
<p>The post received 42 comments, mostly expressing hate towards Anies.</p>
<h2>Offline harms</h2>
<p>What makes hate speech dangerous in Indonesia is it can lead to <a href="http://repository.umi.ac.id/3179/2/Similarity%20Check%20ANALYSIS%20OF%20HATE.pdf">excessive acts of offline harm</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://transparency.fb.com/en-gb/policies/community-standards/dangerous-individuals-organizations/">This can go as far</a> as instigating or advocating for violence against civilians or engaging in other criminal operations.</p>
<p>In 2016, for example, hateful and religious-themed posts on social media against Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, who is a Christian, <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/gr2p/15/2-3/article-p135_004.xml">turned into a massive rally</a> in Jakarta by conservative Islamic groups. They demanded Ahok be jailed for defaming Islam. He was later <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/ahok-jakartas-former-governor-released-after-jail-term-for-blasphemy">sentenced</a> to two years in prison for just that.</p>
<h2>What we can do</h2>
<p>Users can report posts and accounts violating X’s violent and <a href="https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/violent-entities">hateful content policies</a>.</p>
<p>However, the platform must review and evaluate posts that are reported before acting. By the time X finally removes content, some content has already gone viral and gained public attention.</p>
<p>The government, civil rights organisations, nongovernmental organisations and social media platforms must work closely together to drive awareness of the issue in the lead-up to Indonesia’s election next month.</p>
<p>To tackle hate speech and disinformation, they must cooperate in monitoring and analysing such content when it is flagged, identify the actors and root causes behind such content and formulate stronger regulations that protect victims.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Greater Internet Freedom Harmful Speech Monitoring Fellowship 2023 was funded by the USAID and implemented by Internews.</span></em></p>My research found at least 60 instances of hate speech in a two-month span last year targeting presidential hopefuls.Jati Savitri Sekargati, PhD Candidate in Media and Journalism, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209452024-01-23T05:10:48Z2024-01-23T05:10:48ZNavigating algorithmic bias amid rapid AI development in Southeast Asia<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer an emerging technology in Southeast Asia. </p>
<p>Countries across the region are aggressively adopting AI systems for everything from <a href="https://www.frontier-enterprise.com/ai-in-public-safety-a-southeast-asia-perspective/">smart city surveillance</a> to <a href="https://fintechcircle.com/insights/data-ai-lending-in-south-east-asia/">credit scoring apps</a>, promising more financial inclusion. </p>
<p>But there are growing rumblings that this headlong rush towards automation is outpacing ethical checks and balances. Looming over glowing promises of precision and objectivity is the spectre of algorithmic bias. </p>
<p>AI bias refers to cases where automated systems produce <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/3457607?casa_token=6zTVIyYKU6QAAAAA:SHw5alyYksbmGu4NDhHk98Pz7CSnbZSZccSRhQXbN4LhJK1s3wY_NnCliBreXKZ5oc02255ZQeSCRw">discriminatory results</a> due to technical limitations or issues with the underlying data or development process. This can propagate unfair prejudices <a href="https://unu.edu/macau/blog-post/developing-inclusive-ai-policy-southeast-asia">against vulnerable demographic groups</a>.</p>
<p>For instance, a facial recognition tool trained <a href="https://nonprofitquarterly.org/facial-recognition-technologys-enduring-threat-to-civil-liberties/#:%7E:text=Problematically%2C%20the%20faces%20used%20to,and%20especially%20women%20of%20color.">predominantly on Caucasian faces</a> may have drastically lower accuracy at identifying Southeast Asian individuals. </p>
<p>As Southeast Asia attempts to navigate the new terrain of automated decision-making, this article delves into the swelling chorus of dissent questioning whether Southeast Asia’s AI ascent could leave marginalised communities even further behind.</p>
<h2>How bias creates discrimination</h2>
<p>In Southeast Asia, the prevalence of AI bias is evident in various forms, such as flawed speech and image recognition, as well as <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Southeast+Asia+skewed+credit+risk+assessments+AI&oq=Southeast+Asia+skewed+credit+risk+assessments+AI&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRiPAjIHCAQQIRiPAtIBCDU2NjhqMGo5qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#:%7E:text=The%20Prospects%20and,uploads%20%E2%80%BA%202021/01">biased credit risk assessments</a>.</p>
<p>These algorithmic biases often lead to unjust outcomes, disproportionately affecting minority ethnic groups. </p>
<p>A notable example from Indonesia demonstrates this. An AI-based job recommendation system <a href="https://kr-asia.com/the-ethics-of-ai-navigating-the-moral-landscape-in-southeast-asia">unintentionally excluded women</a> from certain job opportunities, a result of historical biases ingrained in the data. </p>
<p>The diversity of the region, with its array of languages, skin tones and cultural nuances, often gets overlooked or inaccurately represented in AI models that rely on Western-centric training data. </p>
<p>Consequently, these AI systems, which are often perceived as neutral and objective, inadvertently perpetuate real-world inequalities rather than eliminating them.</p>
<h2>Ethical implications</h2>
<p>The rapid evolution of technology in Southeast Asia presents significant ethical challenges in AI applications, due in large part to the breakneck pace at which automation and other advanced technologies are being adopted. </p>
<p>This rapid adoption <a href="https://asean.org/asean-initiates-regional-discussion-on-generative-ai-policy/">outpaces the development of ethical guidelines</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regulatory frameworks lag behind the swift pace of technological implementation in Southeast Asia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Limited local involvement in AI development sidelines critical regional expertise and widens the democracy deficit</p>
<p>The “democracy deficit” refers to the lack of public participation in AI decision-making – facial recognition rolled out by governments without consulting impacted communities being one case. </p>
<p>For example, Indigenous groups like the <a href="https://theculturetrip.com/asia/philippines/articles/the-aeta-the-first-philippine-people#:%7E:text=In%20the%20Philippines%2C%20Aetas%20as,slash%2Dand%2Dburn%20farming.">Aeta in the Philippines</a> are already marginalised and could face particular threats from unchecked automation. Without data or input from rural Indigenous communities, they could be excluded from AI opportunities. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, biased data sets and algorithms risk exacerbating discrimination. The <a href="https://commons.princeton.edu/mg/the-high-colonial-age-1870-1914/">region’s colonial history</a> and continuous marginalisation of Indigenous communities casts <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/report-asia-and-the-pacific/">a significant shadow</a>. </p>
<p>The uncritical implementation of automated decision-making, without addressing underlying historical inequalities and the potential for AI to reinforce discriminatory patterns, presents a profound ethical concern. </p>
<p>Regulatory frameworks lag behind the swift pace of technological implementation, leaving vulnerable ethnic and rural communities to deal with harmful AI errors without recourse.</p>
<h2>Geopolitical dynamics</h2>
<p>Southeast Asia finds itself at a crucial juncture, strategically positioned at the heart of <a href="https://engagemedia.org/2022/excerpt-geopolitics-ai-southeast-asia/">AI advancements and geopolitical interests</a>. </p>
<p>Both the United States and China seemingly leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to expand their influence in the region. </p>
<p>During President Biden’s 2023 trip to Vietnam, the US government revealed initiatives for increased collaboration and investment by American corporations, <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/planetary-politics/blog/what-will-ai-mean-for-asean/">including Microsoft, Nvidia and Google</a>, in Southeast Asian countries to gain access to data and engineering talent. This data and talent is seen as crucial for training advanced AI systems. </p>
<p>At the same time, China has been rapidly investing in digital infrastructure projects in the region through its <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/05/how-has-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-impacted-southeast-asian-countries-pub-91170">Belt and Road Initiative</a>, sparking concerns about <a href="https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2022/12/digital-silk-road-introduction/">technological colonialism</a>. </p>
<p>There are also worries that Southeast Asia may become a battleground for <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Southeast-Asia-s-digital-battle-Chinese-and-U.S.-Big-Tech-face-off-over-1tn-market">US–China AI competition</a>, escalating security tensions and risks of an AI arms race. </p>
<p>With major powers vying for economic, military and ideological influence, Southeast Asian nations face complex challenges in managing these multifaceted interests around AI. </p>
<p>Crafting policies that balance benefits and risks, while maintaining autonomy, will be critical.</p>
<h2>The path ahead: caution mixed with optimism</h2>
<p>Considering Southeast Asia’s immense diversity of ethnicity, languages and socio-cultural traditions, the region has both <a href="https://unu.edu/macau/blog-post/developing-inclusive-ai-policy-southeast-asia">unique vulnerabilities but also tremendous opportunities</a> regarding AI ethics. </p>
<p>Constructing more inclusive technological futures requires sustained collaboration across governments, companies and community groups. </p>
<p>No single prescription can “solve” algorithmic bias, but emphasising representation, accountability and transparency will point the way. </p>
<p>In Southeast Asia, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/ai-explosion-merits-regulation-rein-threats-experts-say-3625266">civil society groups</a> and <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/artificial-intelligence-disinformation-and-the-2024-indonesian-elections/">scholars</a> are increasingly vocal about the need for guardrails on AI adoption, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/new-research-initiative-aims-to-build-large-language-ai-model-for-southeast-asia/">better representation in datasets</a> and protections against automated discrimination. </p>
<p>While there are growing number of local start-ups contributing to regional specific AI-based technologies, such as <a href="https://kata.ai/">Kata.AI</a> in Indonesian language, the first natural language processing algorithms in Indonesia, or <a href="https://bindez.com/">Bindez</a> in Myanmar, more is needed to ensure local experts contribute to nuanced AI system tailored for Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>To support this vision, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/singapore-urged-to-fund-support-for-ai-adoption-and-decarbonization/">more funding</a> and collaboration should be fostered not only between ASEAN members, but also with global experts on AI technology. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, the path ahead necessitates vigilance. Technologies do not stand apart from the societies shaping them. </p>
<p>Therefore, in questioning pervasive assumptions encoded in AI systems, perhaps we move closer towards the emancipatory promise of automation. Ensuring all voices are heard, not just the privileged and powerful, remains vital even in our algorithmic age.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220945/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nuurrianti Jalli tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>How should Southeast Asian countries manage algorithmic biases that often unfairly affect minority ethnic groups and women?Nuurrianti Jalli, Assistant Professor of Professional Practice, School of Media and Strategic Communications, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2178112023-11-24T08:41:46Z2023-11-24T08:41:46ZThe professor, the general and the populist: meet the three candidates running for president in Indonesia<p>In just over two months, Indonesia will hold one of the biggest one-day elections anywhere on Earth. More than 200 million eligible voters will take part across Indonesia’s 6,000 inhabited islands – along with 1.75 million people in the diaspora – to elect a new president, vice president and members of the People’s Consultative Assembly at both the national and regional levels.</p>
<p>The Election Commission <a href="https://apnews.com/article/indonesia-presidential-election-candidates-457845138892d5de371bcc8ee95c7bc6">has announced three pairs of candidates</a> for president and vice president who will contest the election on February 14. The campaign period kicks off Tuesday. </p>
<p><a href="https://mediaindonesia.com/politik-dan-hukum/576423/demokrasi-indonesia-bakal-lebih-sehat-dengan-3-capres">A number of political observers</a> have said the presence of three presidential candidates, instead of the usual two, would be good for Indonesia’s political stability as it could prevent <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep26920.8.pdf">deepening polarisation among the main parties’ supporters</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2014 and 2019 elections, which featured only two candidates, Indonesia witnessed <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep26920.8.pdf">great polarisation</a> between the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03068374.2019.1672400">two camps</a>. Next year, the voters will have more alternatives.</p>
<p>On the other hand, some scholars have warned the 2024 presidential election will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-alasan-mengapa-pilpres-2024-bisa-jadi-ancaman-bagi-demokrasi-indonesia-216437">a test for the country’s democracy</a> because the contenders have either all run for office before or are backed by established power players. As a result, Indonesians do not really have many new candidates with fresh ideas to choose from.</p>
<p>Here is a brief rundown of the current field of candidates, and who backs them.</p>
<h2>1. Anies Baswedan, the professor</h2>
<p>Anies is the only presidential hopeful who does not represent a single political party. However, his candidacy has been endorsed by the National Democratic Party, Indonesia’s fifth-largest party, the Islamist-based National Awakening Party (PKB) and the conservative Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).</p>
<p>Prior to his political career, Anies was a well-known, US-educated scholar with a doctorate in political science. He was <a href="https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/2024-elections-the-third-candidate-anies-baswedan/">born into an academic family</a> – both of his parents are professors. He then became a lecturer himself, as well as a rector. After President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was elected in 2014, he was appointed minister of education.</p>
<p>In 2017, Anies won the Jakarta governor election with the support of hardline Islamist groups. Anies <a href="https://theconversation.com/manuver-koalisi-anies-baswedan-apa-untungnya-memilih-cak-imin-dan-akan-kemana-ahy-212697">is known</a> for <a href="http://www.ejurnal.ubk.ac.id/index.php/communitarian/article/view/316">using religious identity issues</a> to attract support from conservative Muslim groups.</p>
<p>In an attempt to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XN6TusC1E9Y">shed</a> the label of “identity politician”, though, Anies has chosen Muhaimin Iskandar as his running mate in next year’s election.</p>
<p>Muhaimin is the chairman of PKB, which has strong affiliations with Indonesia’s largest Muslim organisation, Nahdlatul Ulama. This group has <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3233481/indonesia-presidential-poll-can-anies-baswedan-and-running-mate-win-total-opposite-ideals">a decades-long reputation</a> as a moderate Islamic entity that promotes pluralism and tolerance.</p>
<p>A study has shown a majority of Indonesians view Anies positively, thanks to sympathetic <a href="https://ijmmu.com/index.php/ijmmu/article/view/3460">media coverage</a>. He is framed as intelligent, polite, firm and, of course, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-9811-9_3">religious</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Prabowo Subianto, the military man</h2>
<p>Prabowo, a former army general, is the current chairman of the Gerindra Party, the second-largest in parliament. He is also the minister of defence.</p>
<p>Prabowo <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mohamad-Rosyidin/publication/316164742_Democracy_without_justice_transitional_justice_in_Indonesia_after_the_fall_of_Suharto/links/58f44daf0f7e9b6f82e7d054/Democracy-without-justice-transitional-justice-in-Indonesia-after-the-fall-of-Suharto">has long been linked</a> to the <a href="https://griffithlawjournal.org/index.php/gjlhd/article/view/663">kidnapping</a> and <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/fora102&div=18&id=&page=">disappearance</a> of students and activists who opposed former <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/jrnatila14&div=7&id=&page=">dictator Suharto’s authoritarian regime</a> in the late 1990s, as well as other <a href="https://repository.um-surabaya.ac.id/1741/">alleged human rights abuses</a>, including in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00472336.2019.1584636">East Timor</a> and <a href="https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=xtWSDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA213&dq=prabowo+human+rights+abuse+papua&ots=jAIExEyK-3&sig=9sQKyGq3izuy28k8FznmJAtjwPw&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">Papua</a>. At that time, he was the commander of the Indonesian Army special forces.</p>
<p>Prabowo, the former son-in-law of <a href="https://theconversation.com/soeharto-the-giant-of-modern-indonesia-who-left-a-legacy-of-violence-and-corruption-164411">Suharto</a>, has repeatedly denied all of the allegations.</p>
<p>The 2024 race will be Prabowo’s third attempt at winning the presidency; he previously lost twice to Jokowi. He also lost in the 2009 vice presidential race as the running mate of Megawati Sukarnoputri, who won the presidency.</p>
<p>Prabowo was once Jokowi’s rival; now he is <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-twist-in-indonesias-presidential-election-does-not-bode-well-for-the-countrys-fragile-democracy-216007">his ally</a>. In a surprise, he has picked Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s eldest son and the mayor of Surakarta, as his running mate. </p>
<p>The decision followed a controversial Constitutional Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-twist-in-indonesias-presidential-election-does-not-bode-well-for-the-countrys-fragile-democracy-216007">ruling</a> in October on the 2017 Election Law. The law says candidates for presidential or vice presidential office must be at least 40 years old, but the court ruled there could be an exception if the candidate has previously held elected office as a regional head. </p>
<p>This ruling paved the way for Gibran, who is just 36 years old, to run for vice president. He has been a mayor for nearly three years.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/indonesia-elections-frontrunners-pick-of-presidents-son-as-running-mate?utm_referrer=https://www.google.com">Analysts argue</a> this is part of an agenda by Jokowi to establish a political dynasty. The Constitutional Court is led by Justice Anwar Usman, Jokowi’s brother-in-law, and Gibran’s uncle. Since the ruling, he has been <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/11/08/en-anwar-usman-dicopot-syarat-batas-usia-diuji-lagi">dismissed dishonorably</a> for breaching the court’s ethics.</p>
<p><a href="https://katadata.co.id/ameidyonasution/berita/653e61b745907/rangkuman-hasil-survei-terbaru-capres-cawapres-siapa-unggul?page=all">Prabowo has risen in the polls</a> since picking the president’s son as his running mate.</p>
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<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-twist-in-indonesias-presidential-election-does-not-bode-well-for-the-countrys-fragile-democracy-216007">A twist in Indonesia's presidential election does not bode well for the country’s fragile democracy</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>3. Ganjar Pranowo, the populist</h2>
<p>Ganjar Pranowo is a former governor of Central Java, Indonesia’s third most-populous province. He is a member of the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the country’s largest political party. </p>
<p>He will be contesting next year’s election with <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/10/18/breaking-mahfud-md-tapped-as-ganjars-running-mate.html#google_vignette">Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin</a> (commonly known as Mahfud MD), who is currently a minister in Jokowi’s government and the former chief justice of the Constitutional Court.</p>
<p>Months ago, many predicted Jokowi would throw his support to Ganjar as his successor. This is because Jokowi and Ganjar are from the same political party, come from the same hometown and have both embraced Javanese culture. <a href="https://sr.sgpp.ac.id/post/widodo-and-indonesias-changing-political-culture">In Indonesian politics</a>, the elites are usually strong defenders of their culture, and Javanese have dominated the country’s politics since colonial times.</p>
<p>Political communication scholars have also noted the populist Ganjar is the only political figure with <a href="https://news.republika.co.id/berita/rav2um384/rajin-blusukan-ganjar-dinilai-mirip-jokowi">a similar</a> “<a href="https://eudl.eu/pdf/10.4108/eai.21-10-2020.2311832">down-to-earth</a>” leadership style as Jokowi.</p>
<p>However, there’s been a twist in the plot. With his son now running with Prabowo, Jokowi is widely believed to back the former general.</p>
<p>Ganjar has consistently <a href="https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1626254/capres-2024-simak-peringkat-ganjar-pranowo-dalam-3-survei">polled</a> among the top candidates running for president in recent years, but has never been a clear favourite.</p>
<p>In March, Ganjar sparked a public outcry after <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/03/23/ganjar-calls-for-ban-on-israel-soccer-team-for-upcoming-fifa-u-20-cup.html#google_vignette">strongly opposing</a> the participation of the Israeli soccer team in the FIFA U-20 World Cup that was supposed to be held in Indonesia, citing his support for Palestinian statehood. This caused <a href="https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/organisation/media-releases/fifa-removes-indonesia-as-host-of-fifa-u-20-world-cup-2023-tm">FIFA to strip</a> the tournament hosting rights from Indonesia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Indonesians will go to the polls on February 14 to elect a new leader. Here are the three leading candidates and their running mates.Dadang I K Mujiono, Faculty member of International Relations Department, Universitas MulawarmanTriesanto Romulo Simanjuntak, Dosen, Universitas Kristen Satya WacanaWawan Kurniawan, Peneliti di Laboratorium Psikologi Politik Universitas Indonesia, Universitas IndonesiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124492023-10-24T04:11:28Z2023-10-24T04:11:28ZIndonesia needs to triple its funding to control tuberculosis – here’s where to start<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552901/original/file-20231010-24-za7ydt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Image of a tuberculosis patient.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#/media/File:Depiction_of_a_tuberculosis_patient.png">Myupchar/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Indonesia is still <a href="https://tbindonesia.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Factsheet-Country-Profile-Indonesia-2022.pdf">struggling to fight tuberculosis (TB)</a>, with the second-highest number of cases worldwide.</p>
<p>In 2021, one study estimated Indonesia had a staggering incidence rate of TB <a href="https://rdi.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Increasing-Financing-for-Tuberculosis-Programs-in-Indonesia.pdf">759 cases per 100,000 people</a> – more than double the World Health Organization’s 2021 estimate <a href="https://data.who.int/indicators/i/C288D13">354 cases per 100,000 Indonesians</a>. That compares with a global average of <a href="https://data.who.int/indicators/i/C288D13">134 per 100,000 people</a>.</p>
<p>Undeterred by the challenges posed by TB, Indonesia has set ambitious targets of reducing TB cases to <a href="https://tbindonesia.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/NSP-TB-2020-2024-Ind_Final_-BAHASA.pdf">190 per 100,000 individuals</a> by 2024 and to 65 per 100,000 by 2030. </p>
<p>With a staggering number of TB cases and those ambitious targets, the country urgently requires increased funding to combat this potentially deadly but preventable communicable disease. </p>
<p>Currently, insufficient funding is a significant obstacle in Indonesia to fight against TB. <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/digital/global-tuberculosis-report-2021/financing">Sustained adequate funding</a> would ensure the availability of essential resources, diagnostic tools, medications and healthcare services necessary to prevent, diagnose and treat TB effectively. </p>
<h2>Lack of funding risks more people getting sick</h2>
<p>Known as the <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240013131">TB financing gap</a>, lack of funding can lead to inadequate diagnostic tools and equipment provision, resulting in delayed or inaccurate diagnoses. These delays have grave consequences.</p>
<p>Studies <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7558533/">have shown</a> delayed treatment of TB increases disease transmission, posing a greater risk to individuals and communities.</p>
<p>Worldwide, 1.6 million people died from TB in 2021, making it the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis#:%7E:text=A%20total%20of%201.6%20million,(above%20HIV%20and%20AIDS).">13th leading cause of death</a> – and the second leading infectious killer after COVID-19.</p>
<p>According to Indonesia’s national strategy, the country needs to spend <a href="https://tbindonesia.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/NSP-TB-2020-2024-Ind_Final_-BAHASA.pdf">Rp47.3 trillion (US$3 billion)</a> from 2020 to 2024 to control TB. However, the budget availability for that period is only around Rp15.7 trillion ($990 million). </p>
<p>Indonesia also lacks access to financing help pay for those extra control measures.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240013131">WHO Global Tuberculosis Report</a> said Indonesia needs US$429 million for TB prevention, diagnosis and treatment and US$87 million for tuberculosis care – a total of US$516 million. But it has only secured only US$111 million. </p>
<p>In fact, WHO data shows that since 2009, Indonesia has consistently <a href="https://rdi.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Increasing-Financing-for-Tuberculosis-Programs-in-Indonesia.pdf">failed to meet the necessary TB financing requirements</a>, financing only 41% of the needed TB programs each year, on average.</p>
<p>This financing gap restricts the availability of essential medications for TB treatment. This issue is particularly concerning, as drug-resistant strains of TB are emerging, further complicating treatment efforts.</p>
<h2>The pandemic hit TB funding</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the TB financing gap in Indonesia. </p>
<p>The government had to change its priorities during the pandemic, reallocating its health budget for COVID-19 treatment and mitigation efforts. </p>
<p>WHO said Indonesia’s TB funding decreased <a href="https://www.who.int/indonesia/news/campaign/tb-day-2022/fact-sheets">around 8.7% between 2019 and 2020</a>. </p>
<p>Upon closer examination,<a href="https://rdi.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Increasing-Financing-for-Tuberculosis-Programs-in-Indonesia.pdf">Two significant reasons emerge</a> related to factors contributing to the funding gap. </p>
<p>First, the lack of adequate fund to cover the costs of TB services. This limits the reach and impact of programs. </p>
<p>There is also a tendency among patients to seek diagnosis and treatment at hospitals, rather than local primary healthcare centres and clinics. This leads to a heavier financial burden on the National Health Insurance system, because treatment costs in hospitals are more expensive.</p>
<p>Second, the lack of private sector involvement in diagnosis, reporting and treatment further compounds the problem, hindering progress. </p>
<h2>What should we do now?</h2>
<p>Increasing domestic financing for TB programs is crucial. </p>
<p>The Indonesian government should allocate a higher proportion of the national budget to prevent and control TB, as well as to conduct TB-related research. </p>
<p>Integrating externally-funded TB programs into the National Health Care system would ensure sustainability and align them with the national healthcare framework. </p>
<p>Strengthening the healthcare system is paramount, including bolstering the capacity and infrastructure of local health centres and clinics, training healthcare professionals, and improving diagnostic and treatment services. </p>
<p>Additionally, exploring innovative financing pathways – such as engaging the private sector through public-private partnerships and leveraging international funding mechanisms – could provide the necessary resources to drive progress.</p>
<p>Closing the TB financing gap is essential, not only to improve patients’ health, but to also safeguard the well-being and socioeconomic stability of communities as a whole. </p>
<p>Indonesia must pursue <a href="https://rdi.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Increasing-Financing-for-Tuberculosis-Programs-in-Indonesia.pdf">strategic actions to overcome these challenges</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212449/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Indonesia has the world’s second-highest rates of TB – but lack of funding means not enough people are being diagnosed and treated fast enough.Rahmah Aulia Zahra, Children, Social Welfare, and Health Research Officer, Resilience Development Initiative (RDI)Wewin Wira Cornelis Wahid, Program Officer, Resilience Development Initiative (RDI)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102812023-10-10T02:50:05Z2023-10-10T02:50:05ZIndonesian urban poor suffer the most in extreme weather caused by climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547394/original/file-20230911-22-ceblp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C10%2C3551%2C2655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Condition of suburban residents in Samarinda, East Kalimantan, in the face of flooding.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Bramanyuro/Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Extreme weather as a result of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">climate change</a> has caused disasters and catastrophes around the globe.</p>
<p>In mid-2023, flash floods inundated roads and displaced millions in <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/2023/7/11/23791452/vermont-flooding-climate-change">the US, South Korea, Pakistan and Turkey</a>. Asia has seen <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66197937&ust=1692313800000000&usg=AOvVaw3GIEwLSF7ljmYqWrBntVC_&hl=en&source=gmail">more than 100 deaths</a> during this year’s extreme monsoon season. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/10/india-floods-new-delhi-rain-record-deaths">In Northern India,</a> fatal floods following heavy rains resulted in the deaths of 22 people. </p>
<p>In Indonesia, severe floods in April 2023 struck <a href="https://floodlist.com/asia/indonesia-floods-central-kalimantan-april-2023">Central Kalimantan Province,</a> impacting 16,234 people. Numerous homes and public buildings were also affected.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://arc.ui.ac.id/riset/resilient-indonesian-slums-envisioned-rise-building-an-inclusive-governance-with-people-and-water-to-make-socialecological-interactions-for-resilient-to-aquatic-disasters/">our research</a>, we looked at how extreme weather had impacted urban areas. </p>
<h2>Urban poor and water-related problems</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://arc.ui.ac.id/riset/resilient-indonesian-slums-envisioned-rise-building-an-inclusive-governance-with-people-and-water-to-make-socialecological-interactions-for-resilient-to-aquatic-disasters/">studied</a> three flood-prone cities in Indonesia: Pontianak (West Kalimantan Province), Bima (West Nusa Tenggara Province) and Manado (West Sulawesi Province). </p>
<p>We used fieldwork visits, observations, interviews and document analysis. We interviewed 57 informants during the data collection process, including government actors, community leaders, civil society organisation activists, and business people.</p>
<p>Our research aimed to understand how urban development contributed to urban water problems within the wider context of extreme weather change.</p>
<p>It found climate-related problems such as flooding, drought, and heat stress may affect the whole city, regardless of rich or poor neighbourhoods. However, urban poor populations suffer more severely due to some reasons. </p>
<p>While the rich has resources to live in well-planned residential areas, urban poor have to live in <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/floods-neighborhood-mapping-poverty-and-flood-risk-indonesian-cities">parts most vulnerable</a> to floods.</p>
<p>In addition to that, they also live in crowded and impoverished neighbourhoods with limited access to clean water. </p>
<p>Marginalised from formal water services, the urban poor are accustomed to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.08.023">relying on their own creativity for survival</a>. They drill boreholes, make wells, build wet ponds or install rainwater catchment. </p>
<p>The same goes when dealing with flooding. They swiftly store valuables in high places, monitor the rise of water level in the nearby drains, creeks or rivers. They also establish communication channels through digital platforms to be informed as soon as possible when flood risks emerge to organise mitigating measures. </p>
<p>However, those are merely reactive measures that have nothing to do with addressing the underlying problems. </p>
<h2>Results from unequal development</h2>
<p>We found water-related problems in Indonesia, such as <a href="https://water.org/our-impact/where-we-work/indonesia/">flooding and water shortage</a> are closely tied <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/36181">to unequal development</a> across different parts of the city. All the cities we studied showed common patterns.</p>
<p>In certain parts of the city, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/publication/augment-connect-target-realizing-indonesias-urban-potential">the economy has experienced significant growth</a> giving rise to upscale neighbourhoods with tall buildings, thriving business districts and real estates with large shopping centres nearby. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Urban slum in Bandung" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547399/original/file-20230911-23-rgy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547399/original/file-20230911-23-rgy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547399/original/file-20230911-23-rgy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547399/original/file-20230911-23-rgy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547399/original/file-20230911-23-rgy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547399/original/file-20230911-23-rgy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547399/original/file-20230911-23-rgy6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The urban slum area in Bandung, West Java, primarily results from inadequate city planning and unequal development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ikhlasul Amal/Flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, this rapid development has led to surges in land prices, housing rents and the cost of essentials like water and electricity. As a result, these areas have become inaccessible to the urban poor.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, in rural and less developed areas, people have converted forests into agricultural lands to meet the increasing demands of city inhabitants, causing disruption of the natural water cycle. </p>
<p>As a result, when extreme weather strikes, the urban area struggles to cope. Heavy rainfall increases the risk of flooding, while during droughts they struggle to find clean water.</p>
<h2>What can we do?</h2>
<p>Our findings show that profit-seeking activities by developers combined with poor policies have exacerbated water disasters which affected urban poor the most. These communities find it hard to adjust and improve their lives in the midst of urgent water-related issues.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547408/original/file-20230911-28-p2o2yl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547408/original/file-20230911-28-p2o2yl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547408/original/file-20230911-28-p2o2yl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547408/original/file-20230911-28-p2o2yl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547408/original/file-20230911-28-p2o2yl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547408/original/file-20230911-28-p2o2yl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547408/original/file-20230911-28-p2o2yl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Community planning to ensure just city development in Kampung Akuarium, Jakarta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Rujak Center for Urban Studies)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, our study recommended measures that can improve the conditions of urban poor in facing water-related disasters, and not just the reactive ones.</p>
<p>The first step is making sure water management practices support the resilience of communities.</p>
<p>It’s important to consider and tackle inequalities across various areas. For instance, we can integrate the built environment to reconnect people with rivers within urban life. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-loss-and-damage-fund-how-can-indonesia-use-it-to-boost-climate-adaptation-efforts-201004">The Loss and Damage Fund: How can Indonesia use it to boost climate adaptation efforts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The second step is to consider the risks of climate change when making decisions about water-related institutions and services. We need to find ways to fund preventive measures and disaster response in a sustainable and responsive manner.</p>
<p>Lastly, it’s crucial to plan our infrastructure carefully. We should include strong and repairable options in our plans. To do this, we need to involve the community in decision-making processes and raise awareness about these issues.</p>
<p>In the long run, these recommendations will integrate actions into the whole water cycle to protect services, the environment and public health.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210281/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Rifqi Damm is affiliated with the Asia Research Centre University of Indonesia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cindy Rianti Priadi is affiliated with the Environmental Engineering Study, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Indonesia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Inaya Rakhmani is affiliated with the Asia Research Centre, University of Indonesia. The data in this article was obtained from the RISE (Resilient Indonesian Slums Envisioned) collaborative research funded by NWO-WOTRO/RISTEK-BRIN.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Irvan is affiliated with the Asia Research Centre University of Indonesia.</span></em></p>Urban development exacerbates urban water issues in the broader context of extreme weather changes.Muhammad Rifqi Damm, PhD Student, University of GothenburgCindy Rianti Priadi, Assistant Professor in Environmental Engineering, Universitas IndonesiaInaya Rakhmani, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Universitas IndonesiaMuhammad Irvan, Deputi Operasional ARC UI, Universitas IndonesiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085902023-09-22T12:28:07Z2023-09-22T12:28:07ZAsian women are still a minority in diplomatic positions: this is how we can fix this<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534261/original/file-20230627-7336-wfx2kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C44%2C4992%2C3682&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women in diplomacy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/illustration-international-diverse-people_3207233.htm#query=women%20across%20country&position=7&from_view=search&track=ais">Freepik</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://investinginwomen.asia/knowledge/global-gender-gap-report-2022/">2022 Global Gender Gap Report</a> showed Asian countries have managed to narrow the gender gap in economic, education and health sectors. But when it comes to political participation, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0192512120935517">the gap persists</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-9426-5_1">Studies</a> have shown in most Asian countries, women are still marginalised in the field of international relations. They are underrepresented in <a href="https://www.sfpa.sk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ulicna-intempl-final-kopie-kopie.pdf">ambassadorial positions</a> and their low involvement <a href="https://dcollection.ewha.ac.kr/public_resource/pdf/000000201749_20230919130428.pdf">during negotiation processes</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://ieomsociety.org/proceedings/2022malaysia/495.pdf">Studies</a> about representation of women in modern diplomacy also assert that in general, Asian women continue to be the minority in this field, with very low percentage.</p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.sfpa.sk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ulicna-intempl-final-kopie-kopie.pdf">some progress</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-9426-5_11">efforts</a> to achieve gender parity, Asian women are still <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-9426-5_11">in constant conflict</a> with cultural dynamics that hamper their advancement in foreign affairs.</p>
<p>Here’s how we fix it. </p>
<h2>Women are not represented</h2>
<p>As of 2023, the global share of women serving as cabinet ministers globally is just 22.8%, according to the <a href="https://www.ipu.org/resources/publications/infographics/2023-03/women-in-politics-2023">the Inter-Parliamentary Union</a>. Asian countries (Central and Southern Asia) rank the second lowest of the world regions or at <a href="https://www.ipu.org/news/press-releases/2023-03/women-in-power-in-2023-new-data-shows-progress-wide-regional-gaps">10.1%</a>.</p>
<p>Most of the women (84%) in the cabinet ministers in Asia are assigned in ministries or institutions related to women’s issues, gender equality and children. Meanwhile, the number of women serving in traditionally <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/history-of-education-quarterly/article/abs/lady-astors-campaign-for-nursery-schools-in-britain-19301939-attempting-to-valorize-cultural-capital-in-a-maledominated-political-field/C7F81D3D2296C8AC47F4208908401E5D">male-dominated fields</a>, such as defence, energy and transportation, remains small – less than 12%. </p>
<p>Globally, out of 193 countries, the portion of women who serve in ministerial positions at the ministries of foreign affairs is only around 20%.</p>
<p>In Asia, the proportion of women as ambassadors and permanent representatives in United Nations (UN) organisations is just <a href="https://www.agda.ac.ae/docs/default-source/2023/women-diplomacy.pdf?sfvrsn=6189673b_3">12%</a>, far less than the global average of 20.54%. The Maldives has the greatest ratio of female ambassadors among Asian countries – at 50%, while Cambodia with 25% share is the lowest in Asia.</p>
<p>Right now, only <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-58682-3_2">17 Asian nations</a> that currently have ever had female foreign ministers. In Southeast Asia, it is only Philippines, Timor Leste, Myanmar and Indonesia.</p>
<p>During President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo term, Indonesian female ambassadors made up <a href="https://theconversation.com/data-bicara-keterwakilan-perempuan-indonesia-sebagai-duta-besar-kurang-dari-6-strategi-pengarusutamaan-gender-perlu-diperkuat-197033">13.46%</a> from the <a href="https://kemlu.go.id/portal/id/page/29/kedutaan_konsulat">total 95 embassies and three permanent missions</a>, that is higher than the previous administration which stood at 9.55%.</p>
<h2>The challenges</h2>
<p>There are three challenges behind the low representation of women in Asian foreign affairs. </p>
<p><strong>First</strong>, the dearth of representation of women in international affairs is inextricably linked to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/16/here-s-why-closing-foreign-policy-gender-gap-matters-pub-68325">the notion</a> in most Asian nations that males still dominate this field. Historically, diplomacy has been a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/13/3/521/2625550">male-dominated domain</a> with <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-9426-5_7">very few provisions</a> for women.</p>
<p><strong>Second</strong>, in <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00219096231176738">most Asian countries</a>, there are still <a href="https://download.e-bookshelf.de/download/0010/5370/59/L-G-0010537059-0024446644.pdf">unequal cultural and structural power relations</a> inside internal organisations. <a href="https://www.diplomacy.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/IC-and-Diplomacy-FINAL_Part16.pdf">Patriarchal views and gender preconceptions</a> about the function of female ambassadors still exist.</p>
<p><strong>Third</strong>, female diplomats are also affected more disproportionately because they <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/abs/work-and-family-balance-in-top-diplomacy-the-case-of-the-czech-republic/CA79AA24B75D006C2D0A601966A65F32">carry double burden</a> in balancing work and personal life.</p>
<p>While they hold public positions, most of them still carry domestic responsibilities. It is still more difficult for women, compared to men, to deal with frequent job rotations, long working hours and placements abroad.</p>
<h2>Promoting gender-responsive policies</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nyu.edu/washington-dc/dc-dialogues/women-in-and-of-the-world/broad-influence--how-women-are-changing-the-way-america.html">Research</a> has shown that if women achieved critical mass –somewhere between 20-30% – within an organisation they can <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-a-critical-mass-of-women-can-change-an-institution">wield power and influence</a> in public life and the workforce. </p>
<p>But it is not enough to only ensure women receive fair representation in organisations. After achieving critical mass, the next step is to include a gender perspective in foreign policy approaches, formulation and implementation.</p>
<p>In recent years, several governments in Asia <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/Brief-Feminist-foreign-policies-en_0.pdf">have recognised</a> the needs of <a href="https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/16/2/143/5781199">gender mainstreaming</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26760832">feminist foreign policy</a>.</p>
<p>Indonesia, for example, has issued <a href="https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Home/Details/163046/permenlu-no-21-tahun-2020">a ministerial regulation</a> that facilitates gender-related concerns in ministries, including facilities for female employees.</p>
<p>Other Asian countries are also beginning to implement gender-responsive foreign policy. Several Asian countries have developed <a href="https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2020/10/women-peace-and-security-in-asia-pacific-20-years-on-progress-achieved-and-lessons-learned">National Action Plans</a> on women, peace and security. These include Indonesia (2014), the Philippines (2010 and 2017), South Korea (2014) and Timor Leste (2016). </p>
<p>Sending more female ambassadors to regional and global forums is another way for achieving gender balance and equality.</p>
<p>Efforts have been started but much more is needed. All stakeholders must keep echoing the necessity of gender equality in the work place through better and wider <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10357718.2021.1893653?journalCode=caji20">attempts to normalise gender equality</a> in foreign policy institutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Although there have progress to achieve gender equality, women are still under-represented in diplomacy in Asia.Athiqah Nur Alami, Researcher at Research Center for Politics, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Ganewati Wuryandari, Professor, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Mario Surya Ramadhan, Researcher, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2127002023-09-14T02:50:47Z2023-09-14T02:50:47ZHealthy soil can help grow more food and cut emissions – but government inaction means too much soil is being degraded<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546150/original/file-20230904-29-iz3bq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Volodymyr Shtun/Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The soil beneath our feet is a living entity. It is home to many microbes on Earth responsible for crucial processes such as decomposition and supporting plant health.</p>
<p>Organic compounds in the soil, such as humus – made from decomposed plant and animal matter – play a crucial role in maintaining soil’s structure, by acting as a bonding agent between soil particles. Similar to the walls of a building, healthy soil acts as a structure that allows water to flow, prevents erosion and provides habitats for organisms.</p>
<p>Healthy soil also helps people get safe and nutritious food, and is especially important for people including farmers and indigenous communities in developing nations.</p>
<p>Yet, more than a third of the soil worldwide is <a href="https://www.fao.org/about/meetings/soil-erosion-symposium/key-messages/en/">now degraded</a>, or facing issues such as hardening, erosion, nutrient degradation and increased salinity.</p>
<p>Degraded soil <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/soil-degradation">can result</a> in lower crop yields and poorer food quality. It also reduces water supply and increases drought risks. It may also increase the risks for floods, as the soil loses its ability to hold and filter water.</p>
<p>This article will share major factors behind soil degradation, and why we need governments worldwide to do more to take better care of our soil. </p>
<h2>Soil destroyers</h2>
<p>The global agriculture industry’s excessive use of fertiliser seriously damages the microbiological ecosystem in soil. This in turn makes the industry more dependent on expensive fertiliser and pesticides.</p>
<p>Modern ways of growing crops such as corns and potatoes often prioritise maximising high yields by using more nitrogen fertiliser than necessary. This releases nitrous oxide – a greenhouse gas <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210603-nitrous-oxide-the-worlds-forgotten-greenhouse-gas">300 times more potent</a> than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>In addition, aggressive soil cultivation practices – such as deep plowing with heavy machinery – have risen significantly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/05/us/deep-plowing-is-halted-by-many-to-protect-soil.html">over recent decades</a>. These practices crush organic matter hidden within soil clumps, resulting in serious loss of biodiversity.</p>
<p>Human activities are putting too much stress on soil resources, and we are reaching a point where the soil can <a href="https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2018-06/17.%20Threats%2Bto%2BSoils__Pierzynski_Brajendra.pdf">no longer sustain us</a>. This not only endangering biodiversity but also disrupting food supplies, potentially pushing millions into poverty.</p>
<h2>The global significance of healthy soil</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/ecosystem-management/202009/farmers-could-substantially-boost-productivity-conserving-soil-biodiversity-iucn-report">A 2020 study</a> by the International Union for Conservation of Nature found that healthy soils and landscapes can enhance crops’ ability to withstand the detrimental effects of climate change, such as drought or flood. </p>
<p>Improving our understanding of soil can also advance economic and climate goals.</p>
<p><a href="https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/49094">The IUCN report</a> found that increasing soil organic carbon by 0.4% annually in the first 30-40cm of soil may increase global production of major food crops, such as corn, rice and wheat, in some cases between 20-40% per year. </p>
<p>Boosting soil organic carbon in the world’s agricultural land by that much could increase carbon capture by croplands and grasslands by approximately <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/49094">1 gigatonne</a> per year over the next 30 years. That would be equivalent to capturing 10% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions from human activity in 2017. </p>
<p>However, enhancing soil fertility is not as simple as pouring fertiliser out of a bag. Governments need to work together at the global, regional, and national levels to collectively improve soil health.</p>
<h2>Better policies to soil museums: how governments can help</h2>
<p>There are many existing soil initiatives around the world that governments can learn from. </p>
<p><strong>First,</strong> governments need to create policies that encourage farmers or land managers to implement environmentally friendly practices.</p>
<p>One example is the <a href="https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/common-agricultural-policy/cap-overview/cap-glance_en">“carbon farming” policy</a> implemented by the European Union, which provides financial incentives to farmers or land managers who adopt eco-friendly practices. These practices include diversifying crops, planting leguminous plants, such as peanuts or lentils, and practising agroforestry (integrating trees and shrubs with crops or livestock).</p>
<p>These actions help to increase carbon sequestration in soils and support a healthy ecosystem with beneficial organisms, such as bacteria, fungi, protozoa and nematodes.</p>
<p>Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Thailand <a href="https://web.kominfo.go.id/sites/default/files/G20%20Bali%20Leaders%27%20Declaration%2C%2015-16%20November%202022%2C%20incl%20Annex.pdf">have led globally</a> in reducing chemical fertiliser subsidies. To improve soil fertility and biodiversity, governments need to direct subsidies towards a biological solution that involves using bio-fertilisers and science-based composting.</p>
<p><strong>Second,</strong> governments can participate in global initiatives aimed at improving soil quality.</p>
<p>International organisations, such as the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, bring together experts, governments, the private sector and environmental organisations to emphasise critical environmental issues, including the significance of soil health. </p>
<p>The upcoming UN SDG Summit and UN Climate Change Conference (<a href="https://unfccc.int/cop28">COP28</a>) later in the year present opportunities for governments to recognise the feasibility and economic viability of large-scale soil ecosystem restoration.</p>
<p><strong>Third</strong>, educating the general public about soil science is also essential.</p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0065211320301024">soil museums</a> – located in various regions around the world – serve as an effective means of educating people about different types of soil, how they are formed, their uses and threats, as well as ways to protect it.</p>
<p>Nurturing the symbiotic relationship between human and life in soil requires a mindset change. Doing so will improve citizens’ understanding and respect for the nutrient recycling mechanisms that nature itself has developed and relies on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yuen Yoong Leong, Director of Sustainability Studies, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN); Professor, Sunway University, and Michael James Platts (1945-2022), University of Cambridge</span></em></p>From policies to support carbon farming, to setting up local ‘soil museums’, governments need to do much more to protect the soil we rely on for growing food and a healthier life on Earth.Yuen Yoong Leong, Director of Sustainability Studies, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN); Professor, Sunway University, Sunway UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2121332023-09-04T02:30:53Z2023-09-04T02:30:53ZSharing benefits from the UN’s deforestation reduction program remains challenging, here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544499/original/file-20230824-23-mjs8wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C2048%2C1336&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A view of primary rainforest in Honitetu village, West Seram regency, Maluku province, Indonesia on August 23, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/36827390986/in/photostream/">(Ulet Ifansasti/CIFOR)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>REDD+ is the United Nations’ <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/about/about-redd">deforestation and forest degradation reduction program</a>. It was established nearly 20 years ago and is still active in more than 65 countries.</p>
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Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-indonesia-improve-redd-to-stop-deforestation-181435">How can Indonesia improve REDD+ to stop deforestation?</a>
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<p>REDD+ allows people who protect local forests to receive payments, usually from developed countries. The intention is to make saving forests more economically attractive than destroying the forests.</p>
<p>The total value of its activities is about <a href="https://climatefundsupdate.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/CFF5-REDD-Finance_ENG-2021.pdf">US$2.9 billion</a>. This includes nations with vast rain forests as recipients like Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Brazil.</p>
<p>To ensure equity, the distribution of REDD+ benefits must consider various factors, including who receives the funds and how they are distributed.</p>
<p>After nearly twenty years, allocating REDD+‘s limited funds remains a challenging task. Why is this so? And how could it be improved?</p>
<h2>Who should get benefits from REDD+?</h2>
<p>REDD+ implementation involves the work of a diverse range of actors with various roles and responsibility, from the highest level of governments down to the grassroots level. As such, there is disagreement over who should get the payments.</p>
<p>Some argue that actors who hold legal rights to the land and actively participate in emission reduction efforts should receive the benefits. One example from this category is farmers who own the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Indigenous forest in Kenya." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544702/original/file-20230825-17-62awuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An elder explains sacred hills’ map In Londiani, Kenya. As forest stewards, natives merit fair REDD+ pay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Violet Atieno/CIFOR)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>Others think indigenous communities who have a historical connection with their forest land should receive the benefits.</p>
<p>Others argue payments should go to the poorest members of society so that REDD+ can help reduce poverty and promote sustainable development.</p>
<p>There are also groups who believe that institutions (including governments) acting as <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss4/art52/#rationaleV">REDD+ facilitators</a> should receive the payment, simply because REDD+ cannot be implemented without their involvement.</p>
<p>These different opinions complicate REDD+ fund distribution.</p>
<p>The government-led REDD+ program in <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/606071637039648180/pdf/Indonesia-East-Kalimantan-Project-for-Emissions-Reductions-Results-Benefit-Sharing-Plan.pdf">East Kalimantan Province</a>, Indonesia, shows how many people need to be involved. All stakeholders ranging from national to village-level governments, local and customary community groups and even private companies, have specific roles in reducing emissions.</p>
<p>Under this REDD+ program, the government and community groups receive an agreed-upon share of the payment, while the private sector gets non-monetary benefits, like enhancing their sustainable practices through capacity building.</p>
<h2>Different distribution justifications</h2>
<p>There at least three ways how REDD+ funds are being distributed.</p>
<p><strong>1. Direct cash based on performance</strong></p>
<p>Paying households or individuals based on their efforts to protect or restore forests is <a href="https://www.cifor.org/knowledge/publication/7045">the best option of REDD+</a>. However, it is also the rarest and hardest one to implement so far.</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.cifor.org/redd-case-book/case-reports/peru/redd-project-brazil-nut-concessions-madre-de-dios-peru/">One example</a> is a forest restoration project initiated by private company Bosques Amazonicos SAC with Federation of Brazil nut producers in Madre de Dios, Peru. Prior to 2021, the company distributed 30% of the carbon sales revenue to the participating landholders. </p>
<p>However, from 2021 onwards, the company reported revenue will be distributed <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2021.624724/full">equally between all parties</a> once the project is able to sell more carbon credits, meaning the landholders will get more portion of payment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fire drills in Indonesia forests." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544703/original/file-20230825-17-rtg0gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Villagers use stick to fire during fire drills at Garantung village Palangkaraya, Indonesia. Combating forest fires is one of REDD+ goals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Achmad Ibrahim/CIFOR)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102135">A study</a> conducted in 2020 by the Vietnam National University of Forestry discovered the Payment for Forest Environmental Services program brought significant positive changes to a local community who guarded the forest and prevented forest fire in Vietnam. This program offers money based on how well forests are taken care of.</p>
<p>However, the effect of payment on people’s livelihoods varies based on the local situation. In places like Lam Dong province, where there’s a substantial forest area, it notably <a href="https://www.cifor.org/knowledge/publication/4247">boosts household incomes</a>. Yet, in areas like Dak Lak province, the payments are <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/10/1383">less appealing</a> compared to other options like coffee farming.</p>
<p><strong>2. Non-cash/in-kind, but also based on performance</strong></p>
<p>This is the most common benefit generated and distributed by REDD+. </p>
<p>Non-cash payment in REDD+ is a form of payment that does not involve money. The project administrator will provide these rewards once certain conditions, like successful forest conservation activities or meeting specific environmental goals, are fulfilled.</p>
<p>The reason behind it is REDD+ should impact both forests and local communities. It’s not only about saving trees or stopping deforestation; it also aims to improve people’s lives by meeting their social and economic needs. So, the benefits go beyond just money – they address important community concerns as well.</p>
<p>One REDD+ project in Jambi (an Indonesian province located in central Sumatra), for example, distributes payments to the community in accordance with their <a href="https://www.cifor.org/knowledge/publication/8867">aspirations,</a> be it for food provision or funding religious activities of the communities’ choosing. </p>
<p>In Central Kalimantan, a <a href="https://rimba-raya.com/our-initiatives/">REDD+ project</a> partnered with the local government to provide a floating health clinic, which now regularly visits and provides basic healthcare services in multiple remote village areas along the river.</p>
<p><strong>3. Pre-payments to induce performance</strong></p>
<p>Pre-payments are upfront expenses paid by donor or government to help individuals overcome the potential losses from choosing a different way to use land.</p>
<p>These pre-payments may seem not ideal but in some places, this arrangement might be necessary otherwise they would not be able to participate in REDD+. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scientist examine bird population." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544707/original/file-20230825-29228-ejx9fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientist examines a African Pygme Kingfisher (Ispidina picta) on Yoko forest reserve, Democratic Republic of Congo. REDD+ project also encourage local communities in saving biodiversity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ollivier Girard/CIFOR)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>In Democratic Republic of Congo, <a href="https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/system/files/documents/BSP%20ER%20program%20Mai%20Ndombe_15%20June%202018_CLEAN.pdf">the government-led Maï-Ndombe REDD+ program</a> receives financial support from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility – a global partnership of governments and non-government organisations for REDD+. </p>
<p>The partnership will provide a minimum of $5.3 million to help cover start-up costs and an additional amount of up to $1.9 million if the program successfully reduces emissions.</p>
<p>Similarly in <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099084503102316232/pdf/P1626050c673020320adf60bbaaf0f53be4.pdf">Vietnam’s</a> REDD+ program, the government has committed to allocate $1.8 million (3.5% of the total net payment of $51.5 million) to fund REDD+ preparation activities at the national level.</p>
<p>The activities include establishing new regulations, strengthening law enforcement and monitoring capacities. Donors will distribute the rest of the funds to the government and organisation, community and eligible individuals once the program has achieved emission reduction targets. </p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>It’s important to have an equitable process to distribute REDD+ funds that takes into account different goals and the interests of all stakeholders involved.</p>
<p>We should ensure fair and equal sharing of benefits in REDD+ design by <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss4/art52/">following clear principles</a> and implementing strong social safeguards. These principles include considering contributions of all actors, meeting needs, and promoting equality.</p>
<p>The world must continuously <a href="https://www.cifor-icraf.org/gcs/knowledge-tree">learn, adapt and refine REDD+</a> implementation. We hope to see it implemented more efficiently in many locations, on a bigger scale.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research is part of CIFOR's Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (<a href="http://www.cifor.org/gcs">www.cifor.org/gcs</a>). The funding partners that have supported this research include the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad, Grant No. QZA-21/0124 ), International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU, Grant No. 20_III_108), and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (CRP-FTA) with financial support from the CGIAR Fund Donors.</span></em></p>REDD+ is a UN program to fight deforestation. But, have local and indigenous communities received their equitable benefits?Sandy Nofyanza, Researcher, Centre for International Forestry ResearchBimo Dwisatrio, Senior Research Officer, Centre for International Forestry ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111252023-09-01T02:01:52Z2023-09-01T02:01:52ZRefugee children have a right to be educated in Indonesia – our research shows the barriers in their way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542098/original/file-20230810-27-1fhmc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C0%2C5979%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Illustration of refugee children.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/concept-refugee-silhouette-hungry-children-refugees-369286484">Prazis Images/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Indonesia is a major refugee transit country in Southeast Asia. As of May 2023, Indonesia <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/id/wp-content/uploads/sites/42/2023/08/Indonesia-Fact-Sheet-May-2023.pdf">hosted at least 12,704 refugees</a>, primarily from Afghanistan, Somalia, Myanmar, Iraq and Sudan. Almost 30% are children. </p>
<p>Most of them stay for <a href="https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1245&context=ilrev">more than four years</a> in Indonesia without knowing when will the transit period will end. Considering the period of time that can be wasted, especially for refugee children, we argue that the <a href="https://aseas.univie.ac.at/index.php/aseas/article/view/7561">refugee children need to access education</a> while they are waiting. Regardless of their residential status, they have a fundamental <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1477878515622703">right to education</a>, to prepare them for their future and to provide a sense of normalcy and stability.</p>
<p>Prior to the pandemic, Indonesia <a href="https://indonesia.iom.int/news/indonesian-city-admits-migrant-children-public-schools">had made progress</a> in providing access to education for hundreds of refugee children. It allowed refugee children to attend Indonesian schools, as long as they had <a href="https://lpmpdki.kemdikbud.go.id/pendidikan-bagi-anak-pengungsi-di-indonesia/">documentation</a> from the UNHCR, an immigration detention centre and a letter of financial guarantee from a sponsoring institution, such as from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://aseas.univie.ac.at/index.php/aseas/article/view/7561">our research</a> conducted in the cities of Batam in Riau Islands province and Makassar in South Sulawesi province in June 2022 showed the pandemic has hindered this progress.</p>
<h2>Our research</h2>
<p>We collected our data through observations and in-depth interviews with six refugee parents from different nationalities (Afghanistan, Sudan, Sri Lanka, and Somalia) and five refugee children enrolled in primary and secondary schools.</p>
<p>We also interviewed principals and teachers of the schools, government officials at local and national levels and local United Nations officials.</p>
<p>We have found four problems hindering refugee children’s access to education.</p>
<h2>1. Information sharing</h2>
<p>“Before the government issued a circular letter, we thought public schools could only be accessed by Indonesian citizens, so we looked for private schools for the refugee children. After the presence of the circular letter, there is an opportunity for refugee children to enrol in public schools, and the process is quite fast,” a IOM Staff in Batam said during an online interview. </p>
<p>The Circular Letter is a letter from the Secretary General of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Research and Technology Number 752553/A.A4/HK/2019 dated on 10 July 2019 that enables access to education for refugee children in Indonesia.</p>
<p>However, poor communication between the central government, local authorities and schools prevents refugee children from enrolling the school despite the existence of the circular letter. </p>
<p>The central government relied on the local authorities to share information and strategies about the Circular Letter to the local education service providers. </p>
<p>But, the local authorities relied on international organisations, mainly the IOM, to bridge communication with and provide information to the refugee community, rather than proactively delivering such information themselves.</p>
<p>However, these international organisations websites mainly provide Jakarta-centric information, means that most of the information only covers Jakarta areas and is not helpful for refugees children based in other provinces in Indonesia. They also had limited financial capacities and had little capacity to provide assistance and communicate with refugee populations in person during the pandemic.</p>
<p>The poor coordination between the central government, local government and organisations like IOM led to locals schools hesitate to accept refugee children, refugee parents could not get schools information, and in the end, refugee children could not enrol. </p>
<h2>2. Lack of technological access</h2>
<p>To conduct remote learning during the pandemic, schools mostly used assignments and online classes. The assignment system needed contact via instant messaging apps (such as WhatsApp), whilst virtual classes used Zoom or Google Meet. This meant students needed access to the internet and a computer.</p>
<p>This was an issue for refugee children. </p>
<p>“Everything is becoming more expensive, but the allowance is the same and we cannot work,” said AJ, a refugee parent during our interview in Makassar.</p>
<p>While the Indonesian government provided free internet access for every Indonesian student, this did not apply to refugee children.</p>
<p>There were also language barriers between the teachers and students when communicating assignment through messaging apps.</p>
<h2>3. Involvement of various stakeholders</h2>
<p>If refugee children are going to be included in the Indonesian school system, many stakeholders need to be involved. </p>
<p>This includes the government authorities (particularly Ministry of Education), state authorities, schools and teachers, local education offices and international organisations</p>
<p>However, Indonesia still lacks a comprehensive and long-term regulatory framework to serve as a basis for partnerships involving different stakeholders.</p>
<p>This includes ways to overcome language barriers, low financial capabilities and a lack of technology tools that some refugee parents still found it difficult to support their children’s enrolment in Indonesian schools.</p>
<h2>4. Motivation to go to school</h2>
<p>Our research also found children’s motivation to go to school was a key factor. </p>
<p>There are two crucial factors that affect refugee children’s motivation: local students’ receptiveness and school teachers’ language ability. </p>
<p>Both factors must be present in the child’s learning to ensure the stability of the refugee children’s motivation. </p>
<p>In Batam and Makassar, many refugee children did not attend schools because their parents were afraid the school would not accept their children, who are already behind with learning, due to racial differences and language barriers. </p>
<p>They were also doubt about the long-term benefits of obtaining education with the Indonesian-specific compulsory subjects such as Pancasila and local arts that will not be used in third countries.</p>
<h2>What to expect next</h2>
<p>Looking ahead, we need to help schools welcome refugee students – and make refugee families aware of the support available. </p>
<p>National and local government also need to provide regulatory frameworks to enable refugee children’s access to educational services so that it aligns with Indonesia’s national interests and global commitments to refugees.</p>
<p>We also need international organisations to maintain their partnerships with the Indonesian government to bridge the communication gap on how to access education during their transit time in Indonesia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rizka Fiani Prabaningtyas menerima dana dari menerima dana dari Organisasi Riset Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial dan Humaniora (OR IPSH) - BRIN dalam skema Rumah Program tahun 2022.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Athiqah Nur Alami menerima dana dari Organisasi Riset Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial dan Humaniora (OR IPSH) - BRIN dalam skema Rumah Program tahun 2022</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Faudzan Farhana menerima dana dari Organisasi Riset Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial dan Humaniora (OR IPSH) - BRIN dalam skema Rumah Program tahun 2022.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tri Nuke Pudjiastuti menerima dana dari Organisasi Riset Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial dan Humaniora (OR IPSH) - BRIN dalam skema Rumah Program tahun 2022.</span></em></p>Research shows that despite Indonesia progress in providing education access for refugee children, the pandemic has made several barriers for the implementation.Rizka Fiani Prabaningtyas, Peneliti dalam bidang Hubungan Internasional dan Isu Migrasi, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Athiqah Nur Alami, Researcher, Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Faudzan Farhana, Peneliti (researcher), Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Tri Nuke Pudjiastuti, Researcher of international migration at Research Canter for Politics (PRP-BRIN), Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122582023-08-31T23:40:36Z2023-08-31T23:40:36ZJokowi is right not to join ‘BRICS’ for now – but the alliance is still important for Indonesia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544728/original/file-20230825-19-lhyfct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C7%2C1595%2C838&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">BRICS leaders announce the outcomes of the XV BRICS Summit, at the Sandton Convention Centre, Johannesburg, 24 August 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/197960982@N04/53138459169/">Official media of 15th BRICS Summit</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo travelled to Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 24 to attend <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/08/24/en-indonesia-masih-kaji-keanggotaan-di-brics">the 15th BRICS summit</a>, an informal grouping of five major emerging nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.</p>
<p>Just before the summit, the BRICS group <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/24/five-brics-nations-announce-admission-of-six-new-countries-to-bloc">announced</a> Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, would become members as of January 1 next year.</p>
<p>There had been speculation Indonesia might join.</p>
<p>There were <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/south-africa-announces-67-countries-invited-to-brics-not-fra">67 countries invited</a> to attend the summit and Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-brics-who-are-its-members-2023-08-21/">reported</a> more than 40 countries, including Indonesia, had expressed interest in joining BRICS.</p>
<p>As Southeast Asia’s largest economy, some experts <a href="https://theconversation.com/jokowi-akan-hadiri-ktt-brics-apa-manfaatnya-untuk-indonesia-210070">argue Indonesia</a> should join the BRICs grouping.</p>
<p>However, Jokowi says Indonesia still needs to consider its position.</p>
<p>As an international relations scholar focusing on diplomacy and international development, I suggest not joining BRICS, at least not today, is an appropriate decision for Indonesia. As a country that does not want to be aligned <a href="http://119.40.116.186/resources/files/Pertanika%20PAPERS/JSSH%20Vol.%2029%20(2)%20Jun.%202021/09%20JSSH-7368-2020.pdf">with super powers</a>, joining BRICS could put Indonesia in a complicated situation in terms of diplomatic relations.</p>
<h2>Avoiding an anti-Western interests ‘trap’</h2>
<p>Historically, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/definition/brics">BRICS</a> aims to promote cooperation between countries in the so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-global-south-is-on-the-rise-but-what-exactly-is-the-global-south-207959">Global South</a> and enhance cooperation with other developing countries in economy, trade, politics and social development.</p>
<p>Russia initiated BRICS in 2009 to <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/how-brics-was-born-how-it-overtook-g7-and-where-it-is-headed/articleshow/102913989.cms?from=mdr">balance the economic power)</a> of developed countries grouped in Group of 7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544729/original/file-20230825-26-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544729/original/file-20230825-26-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544729/original/file-20230825-26-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544729/original/file-20230825-26-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544729/original/file-20230825-26-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544729/original/file-20230825-26-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544729/original/file-20230825-26-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indonesian President Joko Widodo arrives at OR Tambo International Airport, ahead of the XV BRICS Summit in Sandton from 22-24 August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/197960982@N04/53137363322/">Official media of 15th BRICS Summit</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, both BRICS and G7 cannot resist expanding their own agenda towards wider global political and security issues, with <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/why-brics-summit-could-be-big-deal">China and Russia</a> trying to position BRICS as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/40f7cd4d-66f2-4e4d-876d-a0c7aa7097e1">a counterweight to the G7</a> and other <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/brics-nations-meet-south-africa-seeking-blunt-western-dominance-2023-08-17/">Western-led alignments</a>.</p>
<p>In the Russia-Ukraine war, for example, the blocs have shown obvious opposing stances.</p>
<p>For example, during the BRICS summit, BRICS leaders issued a <a href="https://www.gov.br/mre/pt-br/canais_atendimento/imprensa/notas-a-imprensa/declaracao-de-joanesburgo-ii-sandton-gauteng-africa-do-sul-23-de-agosto-de-2023">joint statement</a> expressing their concern about the current war, calling for an immediate ceasefire.</p>
<p>Despite the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the summit, due to an <a href="https://time.com/6307033/vladimir-putin-brics-summit-icc-warrant/">arrest warrant</a> over war crime allegations, South Africa, China and India <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-urges-brics-expansion-at-summit-of-emerging-economies/7237463.html">did not condemn</a> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Brazil <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-urges-brics-expansion-at-summit-of-emerging-economies/7237463.html">has refused</a> to join Western countries in sending arms to Ukraine or imposing sanctions on Moscow. </p>
<p>This is in contrast to the <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/05/22/summit-concludes-with-full-support-for-ukraine">G7 summit</a> in March, which imposed heavier sanctions on Russia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544730/original/file-20230825-21-4n04v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544730/original/file-20230825-21-4n04v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544730/original/file-20230825-21-4n04v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544730/original/file-20230825-21-4n04v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544730/original/file-20230825-21-4n04v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544730/original/file-20230825-21-4n04v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544730/original/file-20230825-21-4n04v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese President Xi Jinping in the plenary session of the 15th BRICS Summit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/197960982@N04/53136401944/">Official Media of 15th BRICS Summit</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This could mean BRICS provides room for its members to counter and challenge the US-led Western dominance. But this kind of anti-Western sentiment contradicts the principles of Indonesia’s <a href="https://kemlu.go.id/washington/en/pages/kebijakan_luar_negeri_ri/716/etc-menu">free and active foreign policy</a>, meaning it does not side with world powers or bind to any military pact.</p>
<p>Indonesia was one of the <a href="https://kemlu.go.id/portal/en/read/142/halaman_list_lainnya/gerakan-non-blok-gnb">pioneering countries</a> of the Non-Aligned Movement. So it always upholds the principle of noninterference in the great power rivalries and only wants to focus on achieving world peace and social justice. </p>
<p>Indonesia <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-indonesia-as-g20-host-can-be-a-mediator-between-russia-and-ukraine-180128">tried to be a peacebroker</a> between Russia and Ukraine during its 2022 G20 presidency. So joining BRICS would only put Indonesia in unnecessarily complicated situations.</p>
<p>Moreover, if Indonesia joins BRICS, the West will probably see it as a signal of alignment towards Russia and China, and this could affect Indonesia’s diplomatic relations with the US and other Western countries.</p>
<h2>Personal interests of old members</h2>
<p>It appears some of the existing BRICS members stand to gain the most from increasing membership of the group. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544731/original/file-20230825-22-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544731/original/file-20230825-22-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544731/original/file-20230825-22-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544731/original/file-20230825-22-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544731/original/file-20230825-22-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544731/original/file-20230825-22-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544731/original/file-20230825-22-byibkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, chairs the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/197960982@N04/53136652961/">Official Media of 15th BRICS Summit</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/08/18/brics-expansion-would-be-a-sign-of-chinas-growing-influence-says-oliver-stuenkel">China</a>, as the largest economy in BRICS, seems to be in favour of adding members to bolster its own global influence. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-putin/russias-putin-says-sanctions-violate-principles-of-wto-idUSKBN0HD17V20140918">Russia</a>, isolated and unfairly sanctioned, also needs new allies because of the protracted war in Ukraine. South Africa as the group’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-brics-who-are-its-members-2023-08-21/#:%7E:text=South%20Africa%2C%20the%20smallest%20member,quarter%20of%20the%20global%20economy.">smallest economy</a>, meanwhile, wants more African members to join BRICS in order to strengthen the influence of the Africa continent.</p>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3226537/why-india-wary-chinas-brics-expansion-push-indonesia-saudi-arabia-egypt-and-others-seek-join">India and Brazil</a> chose to be more careful in taking any approaches as they would not want to get caught up in polarisation. </p>
<h2>But BRICS remains important for Indonesia</h2>
<p>Although the Indonesian government has not joined BRICS, it is fully aware of the importance of BRICS as a strategic partner, especially economically.</p>
<p>President Jokowi, Foreign Affairs Minister Retno Marsudi and Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan all went to Johannesburg. This showed Indonesia’s bilateral and regional interests as 2023 ASEAN Chair. With <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/internasional/2023/08/21/peluang-tiwikrama-brics">an economic value of 33.6%</a> of global Gross Domestic Product and being home to <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/08/21/intra-brics-trade-and-analysis-2023/">45% of the world’s total population</a>, BRICS is clearly a significant partner for the ASEAN bloc. </p>
<p>For developing economies such as ASEAN countries, BRICS can help bring exchanges of technology, knowledge and trade, which is mutually beneficial.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544732/original/file-20230825-19-4v4rcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544732/original/file-20230825-19-4v4rcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544732/original/file-20230825-19-4v4rcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544732/original/file-20230825-19-4v4rcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544732/original/file-20230825-19-4v4rcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544732/original/file-20230825-19-4v4rcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544732/original/file-20230825-19-4v4rcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Family photo of BRICS leaders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/197960982@N04/53137049345/">Official Media of 15th BRICS Summit</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition, BRICS countries are currently promoting “<a href="https://www.indmoney.com/articles/brics-2023-summit-countries-discuss-de-dollarization-and-bloc-expansion">de-dollarisation</a>”, with the aim of moving away from global dependency on the US dollar as an international currency. The establishment of <a href="https://www.ndb.int">BRICS New Development Bank</a> in funding various projects has marked an integral part of the bloc’s economic development step.</p>
<p>This is in line with Indonesia’s mission to <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/ekonomi/2023/04/19/indonesia-lanjutkan-dedolarisasi">intensify the use of rupiah currency</a> and avoid further depression of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. In this case, the BRICS New Development Bank can perhaps <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-23/brics-bank-aims-to-increase-local-currency-borrowing-to-30">help strengthen the rupiah</a> in international transactions.</p>
<p>Although BRICS is starting to focus more on <a href="http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/150709-partnership-strategy-en.html">a development and trade agenda</a>, the possibility of it becoming a proxy battleground between China/Russia and the West remains.</p>
<p>So Indonesia’s decision to stay out of BRICS for now is wise. If it Indonesia wants to focus on expanding cooperation, investment and technology development, and this all needs to be done with all parties, both the Global North and the Global South.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayu Anastasya Rachman tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Indonesia has taken a good decision by not joining BRICS, but still needs to be aware that this bloc remains important for the country, and ASEAN.Ayu Anastasya Rachman, Head of International Relations Department, Universitas Bina Mandiri GorontaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2072112023-08-29T01:06:49Z2023-08-29T01:06:49ZTo stop hoaxes on WhatsApp, Line and Telegram, fact-checking must go beyond social media<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543924/original/file-20230822-27-ztla0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C39%2C6597%2C4375&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/extreme-close-female-finger-using-digital-1027541557">Bits And Splits/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our #FightHoax2024 series.</em></p>
<p>Ahead of Indonesia’s 2024 general election, fact checks in Indonesia are expected to save the public from misinformation.</p>
<p>Media organisations and activists in Indonesia still heavily <a href="https://time.com/5567287/social-media-indonesia-elections-kawal-pemilu/">focus on social media</a> for fact-checking activities to eradicate misinformation.</p>
<p>This is understandable, given social media is still <a href="https://weblama.amsi.or.id/download/research-report-fact-check-audience-in-indonesia-2022/">the platform used the most</a> by the public to access fact-check contents and to clarify any news they see. Not to mention that <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-06/Digital_News-Report_2022.pdf">most mobile phone users (68%)</a> in Indonesia turn to social media to access information.</p>
<p>Yet we seem to almost forget that our personal conversations can also contribute to the spread of false information.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1253240/indonesia-leading-android-social-media-apps-by-monthly-hours-used/">A report</a> by the Indonesian Anti-Slander Society (MAFINDO) on the spread of misinformation in Indonesia has placed WhatsApp – currently the <a href="https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1144489/whatsapp-users-in-indonesia">most popular communication app</a> in the country – as a platform for spreading <a href="https://www.mafindo.or.id/blog/2022/03/07/when-politics-and-religion-become-disaster-an-annual-mapping-of-hoax-in-indonesia/">misinformation</a>.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://weblama.amsi.or.id/download/research-report-fact-check-audience-in-indonesia-2022/">latest research</a>, which I conducted with my research team from the Digital Journalism Department at the Multimedia Nusantara University (UMN) in Indonesia, shows people rarely refer to messaging apps as their main source for finding facts.</p>
<p>Maybe it is the time for Indonesian press and fact-check communities to intensify their fact-checking dissemination strategy by targeting instant messaging apps, like Whatsapp, Line and Telegram.</p>
<h2>Misinformation in personal messaging apps</h2>
<p>The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism’s <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2021-06/Digital_News_Report_2021_FINAL.pdf">Digital News Report 2021</a> shows that the people of Global South, including Indonesia, considers WhatsApp a medium for spreading misinformation.</p>
<p>This means our instant messaging activities are not really safe from hoaxes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530507/original/file-20230607-15-jn50bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530507/original/file-20230607-15-jn50bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530507/original/file-20230607-15-jn50bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530507/original/file-20230607-15-jn50bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530507/original/file-20230607-15-jn50bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530507/original/file-20230607-15-jn50bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530507/original/file-20230607-15-jn50bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fact check platform (AMSI, 2022, reproduced with permission)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, from total of 1,596 respondents from <a href="https://weblama.amsi.or.id/download/research-report-fact-check-audience-in-indonesia-2022/">our research</a>, only 379 of them use messaging apps – WhatsApp, Telegram, Line – to seek fact-check contents. </p>
<p>The majority of respondents (1,335) still prefer to access fact-check content via social media. Other platforms they prefer to use are news websites (769), search engines (731) and television (388).</p>
<p>We argue that personalised fact-checking –- through WhatsApp or other messaging apps –- is important to complement existing fact-checking strategies targeting social media.</p>
<h2>What can fact-check communities do?</h2>
<p>To begin with, journalists can integrate the fact-check contents they publish on social media or news websites with messaging services, especially WhatsApp. </p>
<p>Integration with messaging apps will increase engagement with audiences and, at the same time, expand the distribution of fact checks to combat misinformation.</p>
<p>Press institutions and fact-checkers can also use chat features to engage audiences. <a href="https://wa.me/6285921600500">MAFINDO</a> and Indonesia media organisation <a href="https://wa.me/6281315777057">Tempo</a> have done this. Both organisations collaborate with Whatsapp to integrate fact-checks using a chatbot technology.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tempo’s chatbot for fact-checking activities.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chatbots will work or respond only after receiving messages from the users. Through this feature, all users can choose to read fact-check articles or report suspicious information.</p>
<p>Tempo and MAFINDO’s chatbots are a good first step. </p>
<p>However, both are a passive technology, because they only receive fact-checking messages from readers and then respond accordingly by sending the same fact-check articles for all users. In addition, only users who have the numbers of the two chatbots can access this technology.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lA7yu2_RcZQ?wmode=transparent&start=14" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">MAFINDO’s chatbot for fact-checking activities.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Based on the evidence I’ve seen , I believe we need to strengthen this approach with two strategies: <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21670811.2019.1655462">push notifications</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0020025516322617">personalisation</a>.</p>
<p>Push notifications use technology to automatically deliver notifications and digital content to audiences. Personalisation is an effort to map audience preferences or characteristics that can then be used as a basis to send relevant content or notifications.</p>
<h2>Personalised push notifications</h2>
<p>News media companies and fact-check communities could start by <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003099260-5/selling-news-audiences-qualitative-inquiry-emerging-logics-algorithmic-news-personalization-european-quality-news-media-bal%C3%A1zs-bod%C3%B3">mapping their audience database</a>, based on gender, occupation or location, as well as people’s reading time online.</p>
<p>Fact-check consumption patterns are closely related to audience characteristics. So, media companies could create databases to map different audiences’ interests in fact-checking different topics. </p>
<p>After mapping their audience, the press company could send notifications on fact-check content using the personalisation and push notification strategies. </p>
<p>It means newsrooms would send notifications via WhatsApp to the relevant audiences. “Relevant” means that the notification contains a number of fact-checking content on topics liked by that audience.</p>
<p>However, we should note that push notification strategy could make errors at times. For instance, media organisations could distribute content that is irrelevant to that audience’s interests, and at the wrong time. These <a href="https://blogs.brighton.ac.uk/sm657/2016/05/09/the-ups-and-downs-of-push-notifications-on-apps/">unguided push notifications</a> could be very annoying to some audiences.</p>
<p>Therefore, personalisation and push notifications need to be present simultaneously. I call it “personalisation-based push notifications”. This would ensure users only receive content relevant to their interests.</p>
<h2>Consent and privacy protections</h2>
<p>But before starting any audience mapping work, media organisations should first secure consent from their users by asking them to opt in or out of having their data included.</p>
<p>Media companies must also guarantee that any personalised fact-checking databases or notifications would protect their audience’s personal data.</p>
<p>To avoid privacy breaches, news organisations and fact checkers need to invest in creating subscription systems using reliable technology.</p>
<p>This strategy would require investments in human resources and technology. If we could successfully implement it, our digital fortress against misinformation and misinformation will be strengthened. </p>
<p>It would be better if users could easily interact via chat with different newsrooms to ask for fact-checks about any issues they are interested in. </p>
<p>With this, more Indonesians could go from potentially spreading false information to their family and friends through personal chats, to helping share more factual, better quality information ahead of future elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Research on the fact-checking audience in 2021 supported by the Indonesian Cyber Media Association (AMSI).</span></em></p>Most fact-checking focuses on social media, yet misinformation can also spread quickly through messaging apps like Whatsapp. Personalised push notifications – sent directly to your phone – could help.F.X. Lilik Dwi Mardjianto, PhD Candidate at the News and Media Research Centre, University of Canberra. Researcher in journalism, Universitas Multimedia NusantaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099662023-08-18T06:20:10Z2023-08-18T06:20:10ZWhy Indonesia needs a long-term plan beyond subsidies to electrify its transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541705/original/file-20230808-29-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric vehicle charging station in Malang City in Indonesia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ari Bowo Sucipto/Antara)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sales of electric vehicles in Indonesia grew by an astonishing <a href="https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/06/20/setelah-ada-insentif-penjualan-mobil-listrik-naik-lagi-pada-mei-2023">680% in May 2023</a> compared to the year before, following the recent implementation of <a href="https://policy.thinkbluedata.com/node/4175#:%7E:text=Presidential%20Regulation%20No.-,55%2F2019%20on%20Accelerating%20Programs%20of%20Battery%20Electric%20Vehicles%20for,at%20expanding%20the%20charging%20infrastructure.">government subsidies</a>.</p>
<p>Since March this year, different ministries have been issuing regulations on <a href="https://money.kompas.com/read/2023/03/20/235100926/sri-mulyani-rogoh-rp-7-triliun-apbn-untuk-subsidi-motor-listrik">Rp7 trillion</a> (about US$456 million) worth of subsidies for people <a href="https://www.kemenkeu.go.id/informasi-publik/publikasi/berita-utama/Dorong-Pemanfaatan-KBLBB">buying</a> or <a href="https://ebtke.esdm.go.id/post/2023/03/31/3457/telah.terbit.permen.esdm.nomor.3.tahun.2023.tentang.pedoman.umum.bantuan.pemerintah.dalam.program.konversi.sepeda.motor.dengan.penggerak.motor.bakar.menjadi.sepeda.motor.listrik.berbasis.baterai">converting</a> electric motorbikes in 2023 and 2024, as well as <a href="https://setkab.go.id/pemerintah-luncurkan-insentif-pembelian-kendaraan-listrik-roda-empat-dan-bus/">reduced taxes for electric car purchases</a>.</p>
<p>While those booming sales seem like good news, I believe the subsidy program is a temporary solution to push for widespread electric vehicle adoption. </p>
<p>In the long run, I – as a researcher in energy system analysis with more than ten years of experience in the energy sector – argue Indonesia must set a long-term plan to electrify its transport sector with much higher renewable energy.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segy.2023.100102">My research</a> concludes that Indonesia will benefit in at least two ways from setting a long-term plan. First, the country can significantly decrease energy subsidies by reducing fossil fuel consumption in both the transport and electricity sectors. Second, it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions from both sectors.</p>
<h2>We need more renewables to power electric vehicles</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.255">A research review</a> showed subsidy programs are an effective tool to boost electric vehicle ownership in select countries, such as the USA and Norway. </p>
<p>That 2017 review suggested one effective approach was to provide upfront grants or exemptions from value-added tax or purchase taxes. These incentives can encourage the ownership of emerging vehicles and promote their adoption in the market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An electric car at Toyota Indonesia’s booth at Indonesia International Motor Show 2022, JiExpo Kemayoran Jakarta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Toto Santiko Budi/Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Subsidising private electric vehicles is considered “low-hanging fruit” (an easily achieved task) for the Indonesian government to cut carbon dioxide emissions. That’s because private road vehicles <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112135">consumed more than 70%</a> of the total oil consumption in Indonesia’s transport sector. </p>
<p>In addition, electric vehicles are generally <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021">2-3 times more energy-efficient</a> than conventional vehicles. Electric vehicles have more efficient powertrains, using electric motors that convert a higher percentage of battery energy into useful power for driving. In contrast, conventional vehicles experience energy losses through heat and friction during combustion.</p>
<p>The problem is that Indonesia’s electricity sector still heavily relies on coal, which accounted for <a href="https://www.esdm.go.id/id/publikasi/handbook-of-energy-economic-statistics-of-indonesia">62% of total electricity generation in 2022</a>, meaning that electric vehicles on Indonesia’s streets are still dominantly powered by fossil fuels. </p>
<p>That’s why it is important for the Indonesian government to ensure subsidies for electric vehicles align with wider plans for Indonesia’s energy transition in the transport sector. </p>
<p>This includes plans to electrify all transport means and to use alternative fuels, such as hydrogen and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/electrofuels">electro fuels.</a></p>
<p>To achieve wider plans in the transport sector, Indonesia needs to do more to boost renewable energy in its electricity sector. </p>
<p>At the moment, the government is still struggling to meet <a href="https://gatrik.esdm.go.id/assets/uploads/download_index/files/38622-ruptl-pln-2021-2030.pdf">the country’s target of 23% renewable energy share by 2025</a>.</p>
<h2>Subsidy debates</h2>
<p>Indonesia’s subsidies for electric vehicles has sparked debate. One of the main arguments against such subsidies is its <a href="https://money.kompas.com/read/2023/03/20/235100926/sri-mulyani-rogoh-rp-7-triliun-apbn-untuk-subsidi-motor-listrik">Rp7 trillion cost</a> to the Indonesian government’s tight budget.</p>
<p>Any new subsidy is always an additional cost for any government. In addition to that, <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/ekonomi/2023/05/21/sebagian-masyarakat-tolak-pemberian-subsidi-untuk-pembelian-mobil-listrik">the subsidy only targets high-income groups</a> as they are the ones who can afford buying this kind of vehicle.</p>
<p>Such subsidies can also disrupt the market by artificially increasing demand for electric vehicles. </p>
<p>It is important to note that there was already a high demand for electric vehicles in Indonesia even before subsidies were distributed, as <a href="https://jelajahekonomi.kontan.co.id/ekonomihijau/news/diserbu-pembeli-daftar-tunggu-pesan-mobil-listrik-hyundai-ioniq-5-semakin-panjang">indicated by the long waiting list</a> of customers eager to purchase them. </p>
<h2>3 pillars of a long-term plan</h2>
<p>We should not view subsidies as an effective and sustainable solution in the long run for the transport sector’s energy transition.</p>
<p>Instead, Indonesia should create its long-term plan based on <a href="https://www.transformative-mobility.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ASI_TUMI_SUTP_iNUA_No-9_April-2019-Mykme0.pdf">three pillars</a>.</p>
<p><strong>1) Avoid:</strong> Indonesia should make its transportation sector more efficient by making residential, work and leisure areas in every city closer to each other. Therefore, the need for motorised travel and the trip length can be reduced.</p>
<p><strong>2) Shift:</strong> Indonesia must encourage the public to use more eco-friendly transportation, by promoting public transportation or active transport such as cycling and walking.</p>
<p>Several studies across the globe, such as in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153872">Poland</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123048">China</a>, show bus electrification can greatly reduce carbon dioxide emissions in big cities. Furthermore, electric buses will be more cost-effective than conventional buses in the medium and long-term. </p>
<p><strong>3) Improve:</strong> Indonesia should refine its public transportation to be more environmentally friendly and attractive. Transport electrification is the key in this pillar.</p>
<p>Using renewable energy-based electricity to power the transport sector will play a crucial role in a fully decarbonised Indonesian energy system. This will also be for the greater good of the Indonesian people and the environment. </p>
<p>Providing subsidies for electric vehicles should be only the first small step in a long-term plan to
electrify Indonesia’s transport – driven increasingly by renewables, not coal-fired electricity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yudha Irmansyah Siregar is affiliated with Europa-Universität Flensburg. He receives funding from DAAD (German Academic Exchange Service).</span></em></p>Subsidies for electric motorbikes and cars should be just the first small step in a long-term plan to electrify Indonesia’s transport – driven increasingly by renewables, not coal-fired electricity.Yudha Irmansyah Siregar, PhD Candidate, Europa-Universität FlensburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108902023-08-11T01:53:09Z2023-08-11T01:53:09ZWallacea is a living laboratory of Earth’s evolution – and its wildlife, forests and reefs will be devastated unless we all act<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542090/original/file-20230810-19-oxt4s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C287%2C5184%2C3018&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A family of Spectral Tarsiers captured on a towering ficus tree in Tangkoko National Park, Sulawesi, Indonesia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ondrej Prosicky/Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of a series of analyses presented by The Conversation Indonesia to celebrate the 2023 Wallacea Science Symposium at Hasanuddin University in Makassar, South Sulawesi Province, from 13th to 15th August.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/wallacea-a-living-laboratory-of-evolution-85602">Wallacea</a> is a fascinating region of both land and sea. Spanning approximately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102710-145001">338,000 square kilometres</a> within Indonesia, it is home to a rich diversity of animals and plants, with hybrid species from both Asia and Australia/Papua regions.</p>
<p>There you will find hundreds of bird species, small to medium-sized mammals, primates, reptiles, and various plants – some of which are unique and found nowhere else on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Babirusa is a native species of the Wallacea region." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542091/original/file-20230810-24-z0l1ej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542091/original/file-20230810-24-z0l1ej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542091/original/file-20230810-24-z0l1ej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542091/original/file-20230810-24-z0l1ej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542091/original/file-20230810-24-z0l1ej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542091/original/file-20230810-24-z0l1ej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542091/original/file-20230810-24-z0l1ej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babirusa, a wild pig native to Sulawesi’s rainforests in Wallacea region, use fights to catch the attention of females.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Meldy Tamenge/Wikimedia Commons)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Take a look at incredible species such as the komodo dragon, anoa, tarsier, babirusa, and giant bees. These animals are native to the scattered islands of Wallacea. That’s before you even start to explore Wallacea’s marine wonders as a part of <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/okeanos/explorations/10index/background/biodiversity/biodiversity.html">the Coral Triangle</a>, an area well known for its extraordinary marine biodiversity.</p>
<p>I have been researching this unique region of Earth for decades – and I am deeply concerned about how increasing human activities from mining, agriculture and infrastructure development threaten its delicate ecosystems.</p>
<h2>How the region got its name</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map of Wallacea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542092/original/file-20230810-19-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542092/original/file-20230810-19-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542092/original/file-20230810-19-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542092/original/file-20230810-19-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542092/original/file-20230810-19-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542092/original/file-20230810-19-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542092/original/file-20230810-19-z0l1ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of Wallacea region in Indonesia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Conservation International/Wikimedia Commons)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wallacea stretches from the islands of Lombok and Sulawesi in the west to the Maluku islands in the east. Its northern boundary begins at the Talaud Islands (North Sulawesi) and reaches down to Rote Ndao Regency in the south – in East Nusa Tenggara Province, near Australia. This imaginary line defining its boundaries is known as the “Wallacea line.”</p>
<p>Alfred Russel Wallace, the British naturalist, was the first western scientist to explore the biodiversity in this region. He documented his journey alongside <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-am-ali-wallace-the-malay-assistant-of-alfred-russel-wallace-an-excerpt-85738">hundreds of assistants</a> through his magnum opus <a href="https://books.google.com/books/download/The_Malay_Archipelago.pdf?id=FbhEJ00K_I4C&output=pdf">“The Malay Archipelago”.</a> This year marks the celebration of 200 years since Wallace’s birth in January 1823.</p>
<p>Two centuries have passed since Wallace’s work, and the Wallacea region has drastically changed from what the naturalist once observed. </p>
<h2>The impact of global demand for palm oil and batteries</h2>
<p>For the past four decades, I’ve conducted numerous studies in the Wallacea region. I explore the lives of <a href="https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=6LOMLkYAAAAJ&cstart=200&pagesize=100&sortby=pubdate&citation_for_view=6LOMLkYAAAAJ:pyW8ca7W8N0C">primates</a> and the tiniest of mammals, <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/186616">the tarsiers</a>, scattered across both large and small islands.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black Crested Macaque in Tangkoko - Dua Saudara National Park," src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542094/original/file-20230810-17-18m6y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542094/original/file-20230810-17-18m6y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542094/original/file-20230810-17-18m6y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542094/original/file-20230810-17-18m6y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542094/original/file-20230810-17-18m6y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542094/original/file-20230810-17-18m6y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542094/original/file-20230810-17-18m6y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A juvenile Black Crested Macaque (Macaca nigra), locally known as Yaki, is one of Sulawesi’s native primates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Lip Kee/Flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back then, the forests around Sulawesi, Maluku, and the surrounding islands were relatively untouched. During that time, deforestation was more prevalent in Sumatra and Kalimantan. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837716305348">It occurred primarily</a> due to foreign investments in Indonesia for forest logging concessions and the establishment of oil palm plantations.</p>
<p>However, eventually, Wallacea was also affected. </p>
<p>From <a href="https://regional.kompas.com/read/2010/04/08/12495516/%7ERegional%7EIndonesia%20Timur">palm oil plantations</a> in West Sulawesi to land clearing and development, changes driven by human activities continue to flourish in the region.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989420307460">My research has found</a> Sulawesi lost approximately 10.89% of its forests during the period from 2000 to 2017 — equivalent to around 2.07 million hectares. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542095/original/file-20230810-21-i6hwim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542095/original/file-20230810-21-i6hwim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542095/original/file-20230810-21-i6hwim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542095/original/file-20230810-21-i6hwim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542095/original/file-20230810-21-i6hwim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542095/original/file-20230810-21-i6hwim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542095/original/file-20230810-21-i6hwim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A surviving area of ancient native trees, Dracontomelon Mangiferum, in Ranjuri forests, Sigi, Central Sulawesi Province. Forests like these in some parts of Wallacea have been heavily logged.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Basri Marzuki/Antara)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During that time, West Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi experienced the highest rates of deforestation, losing both 13.41% and 13.37% of the forest cover.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/deforestation-on-indonesian-island-of-sulawesi-destroys-habitat-of-endemic-primates-147189">Deforestation on Indonesian island of Sulawesi destroys habitat of endemic primates</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Over the past ten years, numerous companies have flocked to small islands in Maluku and around Sulawesi. These companies have cleared forests and other ecosystems to make way for palm oil, cocoa and chocolate plantations. </p>
<p>Nickel mining also became a prevalent industrial activity in these areas, due to growing demand for nickels as a raw material for electric vehicle batteries. Wallacea is home to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S037567421300023X?via%3Dihub">the world’s largest reserve of nickel</a>.</p>
<p>While nickel mining has been taking place for many decades, it used to be limited to specific regions, such as the eastern part of South Sulawesi Province.</p>
<p>Nowadays, miners are excavating lands in many parts of Sulawesi and its neighbouring islands without adequate environmental measures. Some miners even dispose of their <a href="https://globaltailingsreview.org/about-tailings/">tailings</a> – waste materials leftover after mining – <a href="https://ejatlas.org/conflict/indonesia-morowali-industrial-park-imip1">into the ocean</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NJfds4ds9jg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Dreams to Dust recounts the journey of Pola, an Indonesian nickel miner in Sulawesi and devoted family man. Through Pola’s perspective, we witness the hidden underbelly of green technology in the world’s nickel mining hotspot.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Tarsiers, birds and reefs are all at risk</h2>
<p>Alongside mining and plantations, the Wallacea is buzzing with National Strategic Projects — infrastructure projects prioritised by the Indonesian government.</p>
<p>There are more than <a href="https://cdn.indonesia-investments.com/documents/List-of-National-Strategic-Projects-Infrastructure-Development-Indonesia-Investments.pdf">40 infrastructure projects underway,</a> including dams, roads, railway systems, oil and gas initiatives, and many others.</p>
<p>The pace of development is truly striking and its effects to environment is so apparent. </p>
<p>In the ocean, valuable ecosystems like coral reefs have suffered extensive damage as a result of overfishing and destructive practices. </p>
<p>On land, massive deforestation has caused a reduction in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecog.05990">bird species diversity</a> as well as put <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989420307460">monkey and tarsier populations at risk</a> due to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac15cd">massive deforestation.</a> Furthermore, deforestation has contributed to a decline in plant biodiversity.</p>
<h2>Working together for a better future</h2>
<p>The world must pay careful attention to the future of the ecosystems in Wallacea. Without serious conservation efforts, millions of hectares of forests in this region could transform into desolate wastelands. The vibrant coral reef ecosystems may become underwater graveyards, abandoned by marine life. </p>
<p>Apart from curbing deforestation, Indonesia and the world must work together to tackle climate change, which triggers rising sea levels that can put the low-lying islands of Wallacea <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X22004900">at risk of submergence.</a></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-may-threaten-indonesias-status-as-an-archipelagic-country-195217">Sea level rise may threaten Indonesia’s status as an archipelagic country</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To ensure the future of Wallacea, all stakeholders – including the Indonesian government, scientists, mining and plantation companies, tourism industries and local communities – must collaborate. </p>
<p>Aiming to facilitate the collaboration, we are organising the 2023 <a href="https://aipi.or.id/frontend/news/read/654c2f2f476b58676a2f77736537417350665943324c76466262576732716d4c36583779514c324d7332422f386a465a417a545a3338472f4f4178514c306c546e42544f57416e5034345464675453504966377179513d3d">Wallacea Science Symposium in mid-August in Makassar,</a> South Sulawesi Province.</p>
<p>This symposium has two main goals: to highlight the wonders and distinctiveness of Wallacea, and to facilitate strategic planning for sustainable development to protect this amazing ecosystem. We’re hoping this event grabs more public interest and gets everyone working together to come up with fresh ideas for keeping it all preserved.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jatna is a member Indonesian Academy of Sciences (AIPI) and also Steering Committee of the Wallacea Science Symposium 2023.</span></em></p>I have spent decades researching this unique region. Without serious conservation, millions of hectares of its forests could transform into desolate wastelands, risking wildlife like the tiny tarsier.Jatna Supriatna, Professor of Conservation Biology, Universitas IndonesiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095982023-07-29T02:55:01Z2023-07-29T02:55:01ZASEAN ministerial meeting: another failed attempt to address Myanmar issue - what’s next?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537453/original/file-20230714-21-e17pa4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1022%2C682&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Menteri Luar Negeri negara-negara ASEAN.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://gallery.asean2023.id/d/7494ce63538a4a8d9355/?p=%2F11%20July%202023%2F04%2056th%20ASEAN%20Foreign%20Ministers’%20Meeting%20(Plenary)&mode=list">Committee of the 56th AMM/PMC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Foreign ministers of ASEAN countries met earlier this month in Jakarta. This brought together top diplomats from Southeast Asian countries and partner countries outside the region, including the United States (US), China, Australia, Japan and South Korea.</p>
<p>This year’s chair, Indonesia, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-crisis-south-china-sea-tensions-loom-over-asean-meet-2023-07-10/">wants to focus on</a> how ASEAN can foster collaboration amidst regional and global changes. </p>
<p>But there is still a long way to go to <a href="https://asean.org/what-we-do#fundamental-principles">ASEAN’s mission</a> to create regional stability and security and accelerate economic growth.</p>
<p>This is because ASEAN has not been able to meaningfully address the situation in Myanmar. </p>
<p>The conflict in Myanmar has been going since February 2021, after the military Junta overthrow the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. </p>
<p>Since then, a bloody civil war has erupted not only between the Junta and the civil opposition but also involving various ethnic groups in the country. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60144957">It is estimated</a> 12,000 people have been killed and millions of people displaced.</p>
<h2>Why Myanmar matters</h2>
<p>Peace in Myanmar is important to ASEAN for two reasons. </p>
<p>The first is through socio-economic. ASEAN is having <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilema-asean-bagaimana-prinsip-noninterferensi-jadi-justifikasi-pengabaian-terhadap-myanmar-dan-menghambat-mea-207018">difficulties</a> to fully implement equity in economic growth and integration throughout the region through its ASEAN Economic Community ambition. The ASEAN Economic Community ambition <a href="https://investasean.asean.org/index.php/page/view/asean-economic-community/view/670/newsid/755/about-aec.html#:%7E:text=The%20AEC%20is%20the%20realisation,integrated%20into%20the%20global%20economy.">envisions</a> ASEAN as a single market and production base, a highly competitive region, with equitable economic development, and fully integrated into the global economy.</p>
<p>The increasingly volatile political situation in Myanmar contributes as one of the factors that hamper the effectiveness of the community and in turn limited its implementation. Not only that, but the current crisis in Myanmar has created a refugee flow of people fleeing the conflict between the Junta and the Opposition. According to the United Nations, more than one million Myanmar people <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/06/1120292">has been internally displaced</a>.</p>
<p>The second reason, arguably more important for ASEAN as an institution, is political. The failure to solve the Myanmar crisis will have a huge impact on unity and threatens ASEAN’s credibility in the long run.</p>
<h2>Continuous failure</h2>
<p>Several months after the coup, ASEAN members and the Myanmar Junta agreed upon the Five Point Consensus. </p>
<p>This included an immediate end to violence in the country, dialogue among all parties, the appointment of a special envoy, humanitarian assistance by ASEAN and visit to Myanmar by the envoy to meet with all parties. </p>
<p>This has become <a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/288084/56th-amm-indonesia-emphasizes-asean-credibility-five-point-consensus">the primary reference</a> for ASEAN’s conflict resolution approach in Myanmar.</p>
<p>However, until now, the Junta has <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/22/myanmar-aseans-failed-5-point-consensus-year">largely ignored</a> the consensus, leading to a rift within ASEAN over how to further engage the Junta.</p>
<p>The four-day high-level conference still resulted in no significant progressing in resolving Myanmar crisis except calling for “<a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/07/16/en-penyelesaian-krisis-myanmar-buntu-apa-yang-bisa-dilakukan-indonesia">inclusive dialogue in Myanmar</a>”. There is no clear time frame and outputs achieved during the conference.</p>
<p>This has raised doubts over the ASEAN’s capability to make visible peace progress in resolving the conflict especially during Indonesia’s time as chair.</p>
<p>Last month, Thailand and Laos held a closed informal meeting with the Junta in Thailand to explore “alternative solutions.” </p>
<p>The meeting received <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-seeking-re-engage-myanmar-junta-with-asean-meeting-letter-sources-2023-06-16/">mixed receptions</a> from other ASEAN member states. Some <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-19/thailand-hosts-talk-with-myanmar-junta/102497120">accused</a> the Thai government of sabotaging Indonesia’s efforts.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Myanmar’s opposition group <a href="https://progressivevoicemyanmar.org/2023/07/07/press-statement-myanmar-springs-young-revolutionaries-meet-with-head-of-the-asean-special-envoy-office-and-express-concern-over-aseans-continued-failure-to-address-myanmar-crisis/">released a statement</a> criticising ASEAN’s “continued” failure to resolve the crisis.</p>
<h2>Engaging countries outside region</h2>
<p>ASEAN urgently needs to demonstrate its relevance in contemporary international politics. </p>
<p>Perhaps this is the time for ASEAN to acknowledge it cannot resolve the Myanmar conflict alone and to coordinate more with <a href="https://asean.org/our-communities/asean-political-security-community/outward-looking-community/treaty-of-amity-and-cooperation-in-southeast-asia-tac/">ASEAN partner countries</a>.</p>
<p>The US and Western allies, for example, have imposed economic sanctions on the regime and restricted the Myanmar’s government and officials access to the international financial system.</p>
<p>These sanctions could push the Junta towards the negotiation table, which ASEAN, due to its “non-interference policy principle” cannot provide. The principle forbids ASEAN countries from interfering in each other internal affairs. Imposing sanctions would be a breach of this principle.</p>
<p>But ASEAN can link its consensus efforts with the West’s sanctions. It could offer to lift the sanctions if the Junta can show progress in negotiations with ASEAN. Of course, this step also needs a mutual consent and commitment by the West. This is just one example on further cooperation between ASEAN and its partner countries to solve the Myanmar conflict.</p>
<p>There is still time for Indonesia to use its time as chair and its strong diplomatic clout to initiate further steps with partner countries to try and improve the situation in Myanmar.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Rifqi Daneswara tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>It is the time for ASEAN to reevaluated the implementation of 5 Points of Consensus and explore more effective measures that could put pressure on Myanmar’s military junta.Muhammad Rifqi Daneswara, Research Fellow, Indonesian Institute of Advanced International Studies (INADIS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.