tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/all-blacks-21502/articlesAll Blacks – The Conversation2023-10-26T21:36:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164192023-10-26T21:36:55Z2023-10-26T21:36:55ZA red card could ruin the Rugby World Cup final – the game needs fairer, safer rulings on the field<p>In the 46th minute of the 2023 <a href="https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023">Rugby World Cup</a> (RWC) pool match between contenders France and pretenders Namibia, with the rampaging Europeans ahead by a thumping 54 points to nil, the wilting <a href="https://www.rugby-heaven.co.uk/collections/namibia">Welwitschias</a> forfeited a player to a yellow card. </p>
<p>Within eight minutes, the card had bled to red. The mismatch worsened. Close to the final whistle, with France now up 96-0, the Namibian desert turned yellower still. Now 15 cats chased 13 mice for the dying embers of a farce.</p>
<p>What’s the point? </p>
<p>As a legal specialist in conflict resolution and mediation, I argue there has to be a better way. Rugby rules are <a href="https://www.world.rugby/the-game/laws/law/1">rightly known</a> as the “laws” of the game, and they are essentially designed to resolve the conflicts inherent in a physical contest over an oval ball. There is substantial crossover with systems for conflict resolution in other areas of life and work.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.world.rugby/news/885413/wayne-barnes-to-referee-rugby-world-cup-2023-final">Wayne Barnes</a>, who will referee the RWC final between New Zealand and South Africa this weekend, is also a barrister by trade. As such, he will know where the onus should lie when critical decisions need to be taken in a trial between two elite teams.</p>
<h2>Unfair and unsafe</h2>
<p>To be a riveting spectacle, the power sport of rugby must be as safe and fair as possible for each of a match’s 80 minutes. That means 15 playing 15 at all times. The spectacle is lost whenever there is a mismatch in numbers. </p>
<p>In a collision contest, 14 against 15 hurts the game; 13 against 15 is unwatchable – and dangerous. </p>
<p>As one would expect, it is generally the weaker of the two teams, already struggling to put up a defence, that concedes penalties and haemorrhages players. A valiant team can hold out against greater numbers, but only exceptionally. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-will-win-the-2023-rugby-world-cup-this-algorithm-uses-10-000-simulations-to-rank-the-contenders-212598">Who will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup? This algorithm uses 10,000 simulations to rank the contenders</a>
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<p>Commonly, the game dynamics are blighted and the depleted team has points racked up against them. Game over, fun over.</p>
<p>It is also unsafe. Rugby is an impact sport, with bodies being put on the line. It promotes physical resilience in the face of what are essentially authorised assaults. Players competing at the top level are playing at their limit.</p>
<p>To oblige them to overextend is to invite bodily collapse. That is not a good idea. Heart failure ranks with brain trauma as a risk.</p>
<h2>Bad rules mean bad results</h2>
<p>Some sendoffs are indisputable, such as for the <a href="https://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/report/_/gameId/596171/league/164205">dangerous tackle</a> on French captain Antoine Dupont during the Namibia game. It meant a barely recovered Dupont faced off against South Africa in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/oct/15/france-south-africa-rugby-world-cup-quarter-final-match-report">quarterfinal</a>, a factor that may have accounted for France’s knife-edge loss in that game.</p>
<p>But many yellow cards are hotly disputed. Knowledgeable rugby commentators, coaches, players and former referees often assert – with evidence – that a call at the <a href="https://passport.world.rugby/injury-prevention-and-risk-management/breakdown-ready/breakdown-explained/">breakdown</a> could just as well have gone the other way. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/school-rugby-should-not-be-compulsory-and-tackling-needs-to-be-outlawed-heres-the-evidence-196993">School rugby should not be compulsory and tackling needs to be outlawed – here's the evidence</a>
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<p>Some yellow card offences are risible. If they are specified in the rules, the rules need revisiting. Attempted intercepts of passes are a case in point: if they result in a knock-on, it warrants a scrum, not a sending off. The attacking team must learn to pass better.</p>
<p>Dubious referee calls resulting in sendoffs and mismatches – even when made in good faith – can and do ruin matches. Sometimes there is redemption as the game rolls on. Mostly there is not.</p>
<p>Essentially, good refereeing is about good dispute resolution. Yes, rules are central to the integrity of the game. When calls are marginal and the impacts disproportionate, however, the rules need to change. </p>
<p>Balance in competition needs to be maintained. Justice in sport for the players and fans demands that no one be robbed in the result.</p>
<h2>Rugby can learn from other codes</h2>
<p>The Australian Football League (AFL) – “Aussie Rules” – <a href="https://resources.afl.com.au/afl/document/2022/03/28/6d92ed7c-efc2-44dc-86bc-9fa1d9b338ad/2022-Laws-of-the-Game-Booklet.pdf">does it better</a>: 18 play 18 at all times, across four quarters. Players are cited for fouls. Territory is awarded in real time to those offended against. </p>
<p>Each week of the playing season the AFL tribunal assesses the citations and dishes out penalties where warranted – typically suspensions – based on thorough, defended inspection. </p>
<p>Umpires are spared the curse of making poor calls that could unduly affect game outcomes. Fans are not given more cause to be apoplectic.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/professional-mens-rugby-has-major-financial-issues-which-need-to-be-tackled-207376">Professional men's rugby has major financial issues which need to be tackled</a>
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<p>Rugby union would be improved if sendings off were reserved for genuinely bad actors. Yellow and even red cards may may well be warranted – called in real time by the referee, assistant referees and the television match official (<a href="https://www.rugbyworld.com/tournaments/rugby-six-nations/tmo-television-match-official-explained-88934">TMO</a>).</p>
<p>But to preserve safety and the spectacle, those exiled should immediately be replaced from the reserves bench. Always 15 on 15.</p>
<p>If the yellow card offence occurs in the <a href="https://www.rugbycoachweekly.net/rugby-drills-and-skills/attack/red-zone-madness-rugby-coaching-session">attacking red zone</a>, a penalty try should be awarded, with the conversion kick to be taken from the touchline. If the offence occurs elsewhere, rugby could borrow from AFL, with a penalty given 50 metres closer to the offending team’s goal line (up to the five-metre line).</p>
<p>Where a red card offence is adjudged, the player should be ejected and have to face a post-match tribunal. A replacement is, of course, needed on the field. No matter where on the field the crime occurred, a penalty try should be awarded between the posts.</p>
<h2>Hopes for a fair final</h2>
<p>Until there is reform, however, the onus of proof is always on the prosecution – in this case the match officials – just as it is in a courtroom. </p>
<p>This will be especially important at the Stade de France in Paris this weekend when the All Blacks and South Africa both go for a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/500877/all-blacks-and-springboks-chase-history-in-rwc-final">record fourth Rugby World Cup title</a>.</p>
<p>In the event of an “incident” – and there will be several – we must hope the benefit of the doubt applies, and 15 continue to play 15. Only if the case is beyond doubt on the visible evidence should there be an unlevel playing field for ten or more minutes.</p>
<p>Let the show go on, intact. For rugby heaven’s sake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216419/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A conflict resolution expert – and rugby fan – explains how the game can restore spectacle and avoid farcical and dangerous mismatches due to players being sent off.Clive Thompson, Research Fellow, Labour, Development & Governance Unit, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133832023-09-13T08:46:11Z2023-09-13T08:46:11ZConcussion: what it is and how sports science is making rugby safer<p><em>Two decades ago there were only two criteria used to diagnose concussion. Jon Patricios, a sport and exercise medicine physician and co-lead author of the latest international consensus statement on concussion in sport, discusses the science of head injuries and some of the protocols adopted by World Rugby to make the game safer.</em></p>
<h2>What is concussion?</h2>
<p>Concussion is a traumatic brain injury that occurs as a result of a force that’s transmitted to the brain. It manifests as a functional change in the way the brain operates. Most are transient and resolve completely if recognised and managed appropriately. </p>
<p>Usually, we don’t see structural changes in the brain in the case of a concussion. In other words the brain scans look normal. And so what we have available to us, what I call the visible wound, is the changes in brain function. </p>
<p>That’s what we as medical professionals treating concussion look for, what we assess and what we manage. </p>
<h2>What are the obvious signs of concussion?</h2>
<p>Things like loss of consciousness, or a seizure, clear disorientation, or inability to walk or poor coordination. </p>
<p>When I started working with professional rugby players in 1995 as a rugby team doctor there were only two criteria which classified you as concussed. One was a loss of consciousness, and the other was amnesia (memory loss). We now have over 20 criteria that we look for including irritability, nausea, inability to concentrate, poor balance, emotional changes and heart rate. </p>
<p>The one thing medical science still doesn’t have for concussion is what we call biomarkers – like a blood test, or a saliva test, or an appropriate brain scan. Once developed, these would be able to tell you if there’s a concussion, how bad it is and whether it’s resolving. Research in these fields is increasing exponentially and I think we will see these commercially available in the next five years.</p>
<h2>What are the less obvious signs?</h2>
<p>Much of the time the signs are subtle. Things like changes in movement. There may be symptoms which you rely on the patient reporting. We break those symptoms and signs down into what we call domains, which means we look at various aspects of brain and body function.</p>
<p>Those include physical symptoms, like headaches and nausea. They also may include changes in balance, emotional changes, anxiety, concentration – those sorts of things. </p>
<p>They often include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/psychology/cognitive-change">cognitive changes</a> like an inability to concentrate. Also what we call autonomic functions like heart rate, which might not be regulated properly, and blood pressure changes. </p>
<p>If one doesn’t take the athlete through a systematic approach one might miss some of the changes. </p>
<p>The other important thing is to “know the athlete” – understand what they are like before and injury. Evaluating the player before the season starts so you have a better understanding of how that player normally operates.</p>
<h2>A player is knocked out cold on the field. What are the next steps?</h2>
<p>The first thing is to treat it as you would any serious injury. And that’s to make sure the player is still <a href="https://www.physoc.org/explore-physiology/what-is-physiology/">functioning physiologically</a>: the airways are open, they are breathing and their circulation is adequate. That’s the “ABC” of emergency medicine.</p>
<p>The second thing is to see if there are any serious injuries. For example, if the player has a neck injury. So you protect the airway and you protect the neck.</p>
<p>The next important aspect is to remove the player from further danger. You get them off the field where you can better assess them and monitor recovery, in an ordered, controlled, quieter medical space. </p>
<p>From there, you will work through your systematic evaluation, and assess which areas are most likely to have been affected. </p>
<p>You will repeat that evaluation within an hour or two and then within another day to see how they are improving (or not).</p>
<h2>Often long rest periods are prescribed. Why?</h2>
<p>As with every injury, there’s a spectrum of concussions and probably every one is slightly different. </p>
<p>You might have had a more severe injury, a high impact, with a player who is highly symptomatic, and has a number of domains that manifest. Not just their physical symptoms, but their concentration, their emotions and their balance.</p>
<p>Long periods of rest might not necessarily be appropriate. So what we’ll talk about is longer periods of relative rest, where you don’t cocoon them but allow them to continue with activities of daily living and then purposefully incorporate exercise within 72 hours. We actually expose them to exercise gradually but early, but at a lower intensity. It has been shown to actually speed recovery if you introduce gradual exercise in an appropriate way, early in the recovery stage.</p>
<h2>Do the rules make the game safer now? Is it safe enough?</h2>
<p>The rules <a href="https://www.world.rugby/the-game/player-welfare">have changed</a> to improve identification of concussions and player safety.</p>
<p>In most collision sports, a player is obliged to go through a specific process before being allowed to return to the field. And these processes in the professional game have to be documented, and submitted before that player is allowed back. </p>
<p>The laws have been driven by the science behind concussion, which is encouraging. </p>
<p>Is it safe enough? Well, in collision sports you can never take concussions out of the game. Because as long as there’s a potential to be involved in a tackle or to be hit by a fist there’s the risk of injury. But safety awareness is higher than it’s ever been, and our protocols are evidence-based and more robust.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Patricios is a Board member of the Concussion in Sport group and medical advisor to SA Rugby, World Rugby, UEFA and the NFL (all unremunerated)</span></em></p>Rugby players risk serious injury due to the game’s sheer physicality. Sports scientists have worked with international rugby bodies to improve safety.Jon Patricios, Professor of Health Sciences, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125982023-09-05T18:55:31Z2023-09-05T18:55:31ZWho will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup? This algorithm uses 10,000 simulations to rank the contenders<p>Despite New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/66622196">record loss</a> to South Africa in August, All Blacks fans can take heart from statistical modelling that has them as favourites to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC).</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.rugbyvision.com/">Rugby Vision</a>, a well-tested algorithm I developed to predict outcomes for major rugby competitions, New Zealand has a 33.5% chance of winning their fourth RWC title. The next most likely champions are South Africa (26.2%), followed by France (20.6%) and Ireland (11.9%). </p>
<p>Evaluation of the model’s <a href="https://www.significancemagazine.com/sports/637-how-well-did-an-algorithm-perform-at-the-2019-rugby-world-cup">predictions at previous RWCs</a> indicate it is well calibrated. And while the system has some similarities with the official <a href="https://www.world.rugby/rankings/mru?lang=en">world rugby rankings</a>, it is less sensitive to the outcome of any particular game.</p>
<p>The Rugby Vision model uses three key components: a rating system for international teams; estimation of expected outcomes for each RWC game using those ratings; and 10,000 simulations of the tournament to account for uncertainty around expected outcomes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545652/original/file-20230830-15-fd91hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.rugbyvision.com/">Rugby Vision</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<h2>Global rugby rankings</h2>
<p>The Rugby Vision rankings are a custom “points exchange” system based on past game results and home advantage (if applicable). </p>
<p>After each of those games, the team that performed better than expected will gain rating points, and the team that performed worse than expected will lose rating points.</p>
<p>These rankings and ratings points for the 20 teams that have qualified for the 2023 RWC are displayed below. New Zealand is the top ranked team, followed by South Africa, Ireland and France. </p>
<p>The same four teams make up the top four in the official rankings, but the seedings are different. Currently, the official world rankings have Ireland at the top, followed in order by South Africa, France and New Zealand.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545679/original/file-20230831-29-vp9dea.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.rugbyvision.com/">Rugby Vision</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<h2>Predicting game results</h2>
<p>In the Rugby Vision rankings, differences between rating points for any two teams equal the predicted score margin for a game played at a neutral venue. Home advantage (if applicable) is worth 5.5 points. </p>
<p>This means that in the opening game of this year’s RWC – between France and New Zealand in Paris – New Zealand is expected to win by three points. This is based on the difference in the teams’ rating points (128 minus 119.5) plus 5.5 for the France home advantage. </p>
<p>This estimate means that if the game was played 100 times, New Zealand would win by three points on average. According to the model, in those hypothetical 100 matches, New Zealand would win 57 games, France would win 40, and three games would be drawn.</p>
<h2>RWC simulations</h2>
<p>World Cup teams are initially separated into four pools, with the top two teams in each pool qualifying for the quarterfinals. </p>
<p>In pool games, four competition points are awarded for a win, two points for a draw, and two types of bonus points are offered (one point can be earned for losing by seven or fewer points, and one point is awarded for scoring four or more tries). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/long-range-goals-can-the-fifa-world-cup-help-level-the-playing-field-for-all-women-footballers-205213">Long-range goals: can the FIFA World Cup help level the playing field for all women footballers?</a>
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<p>Accordingly, the Rugby Vision framework includes a model that estimates the expected number of tries scored by each team in each game.</p>
<p>To account for uncertainty in game outcomes, the system simulates the RWC 10,000 times in accordance with tournament rules. For each of these simulated tournaments, the framework estimates game results and bonus points for each pool game, pool finishing positions, knockout matches, and the winner of each knockout game.</p>
<p>Estimated probabilities of each team reaching various stages of the 2023 RWC are shown below. These are influenced by team rating points (including home advantage for France), and the draw (which pool each team is in, and rules for allocating teams to knockout games).</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545680/original/file-20230831-19-uxyx75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.rugbyvision.com/">Rugby Vision</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<h2>Pool predictions and beyond</h2>
<p>In Pool A, heavyweights New Zealand (98.9%) and France (97.9%) are highly likely to qualify for the quarterfinals. South Africa and Ireland are the likely quarter-finalists from Pool B, but there is a 26.3% chance Scotland will send one of those teams home early.</p>
<p>Pool C appears to be the most even group. Australia (87.2%) and Wales (68.3.2%) are the most likely teams to progress, but Fiji (37.3%) also has a reasonable chance of qualifying for the quarterfinals. </p>
<p>In Pool D, England and Argentina are favourites to make the quarterfinals, with Japan and Samoa possible spoilers.</p>
<p>After the initial round, Pool A teams will play opponents from Pool B in the quarterfinals. Because these are strong pools, semifinalist probabilities for these teams are relatively low. </p>
<p>For example, Ireland has an 81.2% chance of being a quarterfinalist but only a 33.1% probability of making the semifinals. </p>
<p>Teams in Pools B and C will have easier quarterfinal opponents. Consequently, despite relatively low rankings, England is the second most likely team to make the semifinals.</p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-pacific-rugby-league-stars-are-opting-to-play-for-their-homelands-over-australia-or-nz-thats-good-for-the-game-200437">More Pacific rugby league stars are opting to play for their homelands over Australia or NZ – that's good for the game</a>
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<h2>Towards the final whistle</h2>
<p>In the semifinals, teams from Pool A and/or B will play teams from Pool C and/or D. As teams from Pools A and B are heavily favoured to win those games, their finalist probabilities are only slightly lower than their semifinalist probabilities. </p>
<p>Conversely, Pool C and D teams with high semifinalist chances have relatively low finalist probabilities. For example, England has a 55.0% chance of playing in a semifinal but only a 9.7% chance of being a finalist.</p>
<p>The RWC draw makes it easier for Pool C and D teams to qualify for the semifinals, but these teams are all but guaranteed to play strong semifinal opponents. In short, the draw helps Pool C and D teams go deeper into the tournament, but does not increase their chances of winning.</p>
<p>Finally, while the Rugby Vision predictions provide a reliable forecast, <a href="https://www.economist.com/game-theory/2015/10/07/not-so-surprising?">upsets do happen</a> – we just don’t know when. That’s what makes sport so interesting, after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Niven Winchester does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Rugby World Cup kicks off this weekend with hosts France playing New Zealand. Here’s why the All Blacks are still favourites to win the tournament, despite not being the official top team.Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1902382022-09-14T02:34:17Z2022-09-14T02:34:17ZIf rugby is still a religion in New Zealand, how should its high priesthood respond to a crisis of faith?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484444/original/file-20220913-4826-tyuzik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4642%2C3094&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>Rugby football was the best of all our pleasures: it was religion and desire and fulfilment all in one.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>– John Mulgan, Report on Experience (1947)</strong></p>
<p>Since failing to win the 2019 Rugby World Cup, the way the All Blacks have played – and often lost – has caused much anguish about a “crisis” in New Zealand rugby. It reached <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/300677663/crisis-what-crisis-this-is-not-all-black-apocalypse-the-rugby-brains-trust-says">boiling point</a> after the recent series loss to Ireland and first Test loss to Argentina.</p>
<p>Is the game’s administrative body, New Zealand Rugby (NZR), not up to the task? Have they and the All Blacks lost their way? Clearly something profound – existential even – is going on. In which case, maybe it’s time NZR turned to another kind of expert for answers.</p>
<p>Given it’s still common to talk of the “religion of rugby” in New Zealand, maybe the sociology of religion would be a good place to start.</p>
<p>The French sociologist Emile Durkheim (1858-1917), for example, would be deeply worried – for the All Blacks and for New Zealand society – even after the All Blacks’ second Test redemption against Argentina. </p>
<p>Durkheim founded “functionalism”, the view that society is divided into parts and sub-parts that fit together. Each institution and social group has its own function to perform for the benefit of society – even rugby. </p>
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<h2>Anomie and the ABs</h2>
<p>For Durkheim, society is more than the sum of parts. If all the parts function well and are connected, then a new society occurs. If they don’t function and aren’t connected, then society and the individuals within it can suffer a breakdown in morals, values and meaning. </p>
<p>He called this “anomie”, where the collective consciousness of society fails to hold together and provide meaning. So the Bledisloe Test series beginning this week will be crucial for keeping that growing rugby anomie under control as we head toward the 2023 World Cup. </p>
<p>The notion of rugby as a religion first arose in 1908 following the Anglo-Welsh rugby tour of New Zealand. Durkheim viewed religion and society as interrelated; to worship your god is to worship your society, and so society is the real object of religious veneration. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-40-of-elite-sport-coaches-we-surveyed-suffered-mental-ill-health-they-need-our-support-not-stigma-188728">More than 40% of elite sport coaches we surveyed suffered mental ill-health. They need our support, not stigma</a>
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<p>But because society is abstract and complex, we create “totems” as expressions of its identity and values. These become the objects of veneration and the expression of the collective consciousness. </p>
<p>Durkheim was also concerned that if the totems fail, the religion fails. The society then goes into decline. He would recognise the central totemic importance of the All Blacks for New Zealand society, and their role in the religion of rugby. </p>
<p>He would also identify the importance of the two central totemic figures: captain Sam Cane and head coach Ian Foster. Under them, New Zealand rugby has been suffering a totemic crisis. More losses will mean the loss of their totemic value, too.</p>
<p>In turn, those who find meaning and value through the totemic role of the All Blacks risk suffering a crisis of faith and meaning. In other words, they will suffer anomie. And when one section of a society suffers anomie, it can weaken the wider social glue. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484443/original/file-20220913-3906-q6sjkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484443/original/file-20220913-3906-q6sjkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484443/original/file-20220913-3906-q6sjkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484443/original/file-20220913-3906-q6sjkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484443/original/file-20220913-3906-q6sjkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484443/original/file-20220913-3906-q6sjkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484443/original/file-20220913-3906-q6sjkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Embattled totem: All Blacks head coach Ian Foster during the second test against Argentina on September 3.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The charisma deficit</h2>
<p>Maybe NZR might now look to sociologist Max Weber (1864-1920), who would immediately identify the root cause of the problem as a lack of charismatic leadership – the source of authority, able to inspire others. </p>
<p>Distinguishing between the “priestly” and the “prophetic”, Weber would say Cane and Foster were appointed as priestly leaders to maintain the practices of the religious cult, yet neither has the required charisma. He might identify Crusaders coach Scott Robertson as the right prophetic leader to challenge the status quo.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fostering-a-fear-based-environment-coach-behaviour-needs-to-change-in-high-performance-sport-188563">Fostering a fear-based environment: Coach behaviour needs to change in high-performance sport</a>
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</em>
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<p>Turning to sociologist Peter Berger (1929-2017), NZR would learn that the decline in belief in the social function of rugby, and in its All Black totems, is perhaps inevitable due to New Zealand slowly becoming a properly modern society. </p>
<p>Weber would call this the “secularisation” of rugby and the All Blacks, most evident in the declining attendances at services in the churches and cathedrals of rugby (otherwise known as the National Provincial Championship and the Super Rugby competition). </p>
<p>He might link this to NZR’s own “rationalising bureaucracy”, which has seen contests and teams change, plus the effects of COVID restrictions and the impact of televising matches at nights. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-manly-pride-jersey-furore-is-not-as-simple-as-a-choice-between-inclusivity-and-homophobia-187859">The Manly pride jersey furore is not as simple as a choice between inclusivity and homophobia</a>
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<h2>A new rugby religion</h2>
<p>At this point, Berger might offer a glimmer of hope by reminding the board that, while it was believed religion would inevitably die out, the past 30 years have seen its return in many new ways and places. </p>
<p>His concept of a single, sacred “canopy” – the collective universe we use to give sense, meaning and order to our lives – has given way to a series of smaller, varied canopies to live under and between.</p>
<p>So, it’s not too late for NZR to restore rugby’s broken sacred canopy and give it meaning. The rise of schoolboy rugby as a new focus of meaning and identity, and the success of women’s rugby and sevens, all suggest a new pluralism within the game. </p>
<p>Rugby’s priesthood just needs to be open to a new, modern, meaningful order (what Berger would call “nomos”) where the secular non-rugby world and this new pluralistic rugby religion can coexist. </p>
<p>But Durkheim and Weber would both still stress the need for new totems and renewed charismatic leadership. If the rugby congregation slips into anomie, the effect can spread. After all, as has been said so often about rugby in New Zealand, it’s more than just a game.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Grimshaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the All Blacks again fail to fire against Australia in the first Bledisloe Test, perhaps the game’s administrators should take advice from another group of experts entirely.Mike Grimshaw, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1586102021-04-27T04:45:51Z2021-04-27T04:45:51ZWas Phar Lap killed by gangsters? New research shows which conspiracies people believe in and why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397271/original/file-20210427-13-1uxkdfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=139%2C44%2C2811%2C2209&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Apollo moon landings <a href="http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1860871_1860876_1860992,00.html">were faked</a>, Lee Harvey Oswald <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/165893/majority-believe-jfk-killed-conspiracy.aspx">did not act alone</a> to assassinate JFK, governments are <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/science/articles-reports/2019/07/03/UFOs-government-secret-americans-poll">hiding the existence of UFOs</a>. </p>
<p>These are some classic conspiracy theories that almost everyone has heard about, and a sizeable number of people agree with. But little research has investigated “homegrown” conspiracy theories in Australia and New Zealand, and what drives people in these countries to believe in conspiracies. Are we much different from conspiracy believers elsewhere?</p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author/RGSXEZNJYVJBJFZEDGFD?target=10.1111/pops.12746">Our new research published in the journal Political Psychology</a> delved into “homegrown” conspiracy beliefs of everyday Aussies and Kiwis, shedding light on which ones we buy into and which we put in the “tin foil hat” basket.</p>
<h2>What conspiracies do Aussies and Kiwis believe?</h2>
<p>When it comes to specifically Australian and New Zealand conspiracies, we found a majority of people in both countries (56.7% of Aussies and 50.1% Kiwis) endorsed at least one of the ones we asked about.</p>
<p>Sporting conspiracy theories were the most believed. For instance, almost one third of Aussies believed the racehorse Phar Lap’s <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/explore/collection/highlights/phar-lap-collection">sudden death in San Francisco in 1932</a> was the result of poisoning by US gangsters.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sport-is-full-of-conspiracy-theories-chris-froomes-horrific-cycling-crash-is-just-the-latest-example-118918">Sport is full of conspiracy theories – Chris Froome’s horrific cycling crash is just the latest example</a>
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<p>The most popular conspiracy theory amongst Kiwis was the <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/all-blacks-deliberately-poisoned-at-1995-rugby-world-cup-says-nelson-mandelas-bodyguard/AZOWJNWGCVALROTY3COJHVXSNI/">All Blacks were deliberately poisoned</a> prior to the 1995 Rugby World Cup final, which they narrowly lost to hosts South Africa. </p>
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<img alt="The All Blacks lost the 1995 final in extra time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397274/original/file-20210427-21-dlgtvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397274/original/file-20210427-21-dlgtvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397274/original/file-20210427-21-dlgtvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397274/original/file-20210427-21-dlgtvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397274/original/file-20210427-21-dlgtvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397274/original/file-20210427-21-dlgtvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397274/original/file-20210427-21-dlgtvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The All Blacks were stricken by a diarrhoea and vomiting bug two days before the final, a 15-12 loss in extra time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Parkin/AP</span></span>
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<p>These are relatively innocuous narratives that perhaps are not all that surprising, given how central sports are to national identity.</p>
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<p>But there was also a sizeable minority of people (8-12%) who believed in darker and more sinister conspiracies, such as the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/3/28/australian-senator-suggests-worst-gun-massacre-was-a-conspiracy">Port Arthur</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/christchurch-attack-was-a-false-flag-conspiracy-theorists-claim-20190318-p5150a.html">Christchurch</a> massacres were false flag operations by government agents with the aim of further restricting gun ownership.</p>
<p>Also, troublingly, 20% of Australian respondents and 16% of New Zealanders believed their governments were covering up the health risks of the new 5G cellular network.</p>
<h2>Why do people believe in conspiracies?</h2>
<p>Conspiracies are found to be true on occasion, which renders them no longer “theories”. For example, in the 1960s and 70s, the CIA really did engage in secretive experiments to identify drugs to force confessions (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/09/758989641/the-cias-secret-quest-for-mind-control-torture-lsd-and-a-poisoner-in-chief">Project MKUltra</a>). </p>
<p>But what is surprising is the degree to which people seem to believe in unfounded conspiracies, especially given the lack of evidence.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721417718261">Previous research</a> has highlighted three potential motives for why people buy into conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>First, people may latch onto conspiracy theories as a way of understanding and explaining a chaotic world, drawing links between unconnected events to create a sense of certainty. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2014.08.006">studies</a> show people who prefer an intuitive style of thinking — “going with their gut” — are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories, while those who engage in more deliberative, analytic thinking are less convinced.</p>
<p>Second, for some people, believing in conspiracy theories gives them a greater sense of safety and control over the unknown. Central to this is a distrust of the “other” — as in, different types of people or groups. </p>
<p>Some researchers have pointed to this being <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691618774270">evolutionary</a> — a psychological mechanism that aims to minimise the risk of threats from enemies and maintain a safe environment for one’s “tribe”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-defence-of-conspiracy-theories-and-why-the-term-is-a-misnomer-101678">In defence of conspiracy theories (and why the term is a misnomer)</a>
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<p>Lastly, conspiracy theories may serve as a way for people to maintain a positive sense of self and their identity as a member of a social group. This meets a fundamental human need for belonging. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2016.10.003">those who felt socially excluded</a> have been found to be more likely to engage in conspiracies.</p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author/RGSXEZNJYVJBJFZEDGFD?target=10.1111/pops.12746">In our research</a>, we found evidence for all three motives being associated with belief in conspiracy theories. </p>
<p>We asked participants a series of validated questions and looked at their associations with beliefs in conspiracies. Those who were more likely to endorse conspiracy theories were less analytical in their thinking, less trusting of others, or felt alienated from mainstream society. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for combating conspiracies?</h2>
<p>Research has shown that belief in conspiracy theories, on balance, is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/spanish-journal-of-psychology/article/abs/are-conspiracy-theories-harmless/FA0A9D612CC82B02F91AAC2439B4A2FB">harmful to society</a>. Climate change conspiracy theories can <a href="http://doi.org/10.1177/0096340215571908">motivate people away from social action</a>, while conspiracy theories about 5G telecommunications have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12394">associated with support for violent tendencies</a>.</p>
<p>Also, research shows people who believe in one conspiracy theory <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00206">tend to believe in others</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-misinformation-about-5g-is-spreading-within-our-government-institutions-and-whos-responsible-139304">How misinformation about 5G is spreading within our government institutions – and who's responsible</a>
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<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/QSWE8JP8YA4ATBEFFTAS/full">Our other recent research</a> shows people who engage in some kinds of conspiratorial thinking are also more likely to reject beneficial scientific innovations. </p>
<p>For example, those who believe in criminal conspiracies within governments and conspiracies related to restrictions on personal health practices and liberties are more likely to reject childhood vaccinations.</p>
<p>Trying to extricate friends and family from these webs of conspiracies can be difficult. But appealing to why they believe in them — rather than just what they believe — <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0040437">may be more effective at countering these beliefs</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ConspiracyTheoryHandbook.pdf">Research</a> suggests avoiding ridicule, showing empathy, affirming critical thinking and appealing to trusted message sources can help when talking to someone who believes in conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>We are currently planning and conducting further research to track people’s beliefs over time so we can pinpoint the key ingredients to their continued endorsement of conspiracies — and what convinces them to climb out of the rabbit hole. </p>
<p>We hope this will help counter the pernicious effects conspiracy theories have on societal cohesion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158610/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At least half of Australians and New Zealanders in a recent study believed in one major conspiracy theory.Mathew Marques, Lecturer in Social Psychology, La Trobe UniversityJames (Jim) McLennan, adjunct professor, School of Psychology & Public Health, La Trobe University, La Trobe UniversityJohn Kerr, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Department of Psychology, University of CambridgeMathew Ling, Lecturer in Psychology, Deakin UniversityMatt Williams, Lecturer in Psychology, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1262262019-10-31T14:44:32Z2019-10-31T14:44:32ZRugby World Cup: can England cope with the ‘favourites’ tag?<p>After six weeks of exciting clashes between the best rugby players on the planet, the <a href="https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/?lang=en">2019 World Cup in Japan</a> has come down to one final game on Saturday November 2 between England and South Africa. England go into the match as clear favourites against South Africa. What does this mean for both teams? </p>
<p>Before England’s semi-final defeat of New Zealand on October 26, the team’s head coach Eddie Jones focused on being the underdog, given the All Blacks’ recent dominance of world rugby. But he can’t do that this week.</p>
<p>Jones had a consistent message in the lead up to the semi-final:</p>
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<p>No one thinks we can win. There’s no pressure on us, we’ve just got to have a great week, enjoy it, relax.</p>
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<p>In one <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_1NHF96FHc">press conference</a>, Jones even challenged journalists in the room to “Put up your hand if you think we can win”. No one did, and Jones took this response as confirmation that there were no expectations on England to be successful. The team had no pressure, they had nothing to lose.</p>
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<h2>Underdog spirit</h2>
<p>It’s not surprising Jones took advantage of the “underdog” tag in the lead-up to the semi-final. New Zealand had won the two previous world cups in 2011 and 2015 and have been heralded by many as the <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/rugby/are-the-all-blacks-the-greatest-international-team-in-the-history-of-sport/news-story/f61ad2d65623a9586929bbfba386b157">greatest sporting team</a> ever. In the mind games before the match, Jones had to find whatever edge he could get.</p>
<p>Being an underdog can be <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167207307488">a motivating factor</a>. The thought of exceeding expectations against a superior opponent and proving others wrong will often spurs players on. Meanwhile, the favourites are seen to be under more pressure because of expectations to win.</p>
<p>While saying England were under no pressure, mischievously, Jones took the chance to turn it round on New Zealand, at one point saying: “They’re looking for their third world cup, that does bring pressure.”</p>
<p>Highlighting the underdog status supported the findings of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1747954117727684">our study</a> which examined leader communication in the <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1526333/">1997 Lions tour</a> of the then world champions South Africa. We found that “embracing and reinforcing the underdog status” had been a key aspect in inspiring players.</p>
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<p>For example, in the famous “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kM0dx0h2xsw">Everest speech</a>” by assistant Lions’ coach Jim Telfer from the 1997 tour, he said people: “Don’t rate us, don’t respect us”. It was before the first match of what was to be a hard series. South Africa were well known for their powerful forward pack, and were strong favourites to beat the Lions. </p>
<p>But people are inspired by these ideas of proving people wrong, and achieving in such situations. The Lions, against the odds, went on to win the first test match and ultimately the series, two matches to one. </p>
<h2>Change of strategy</h2>
<p>With England now favourites against South Africa’s Springboks, the coach has changed his underlying message. In <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9raiUfnkvo">his press conferences</a> since the semi-final, Jones has listened to the questions about being favourites and has performed a little side-step, choosing to talk about “being excited to be here, and the challenge that lies ahead”. He also focused on how the side were <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgoM8Oc4gQo&feature=youtu.be">ready for the challenge</a> ahead, saying: “There’s a nice relaxed feeling because they know they’ve done the work … we’ve had such good preparation, we can go out and play without fear.”</p>
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<p>The previous week, while claiming there was no pressure against the All BLacks, Jones’ message had been subtly different: “We’re going to have a great week, relax, train hard, enjoy this great opportunity.”</p>
<p>Ahead of the final, while the headline message is different, the underlying philosophy is the same: to take the pressure off the team, and to allow them be relaxed and play to their full potential. Maybe times are changing in the way coaches speak to their players ahead of big matches. If so, Jones’ calm approach certainly marks this change.</p>
<h2>How to inspire players</h2>
<p>The Hollywood-style depictions of inspirational speeches – possibly exemplified by Al Pacino in his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b7bgtu2O4E">“Inches” speech</a> in the 1999 American Football film Any Given Sunday (“We can climb out of hell one inch at a time”) or the passionate speeches we saw delivered on the 1997 Lions tour – may be a thing of the past.</p>
<p>It seems as if this deeply emotional appeal to players has been replaced by clear, calm approaches from the coach. When our team researched <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1469029216300115">inspiration in sport</a> in 2016 what we found supports the benefits of such an approach. We found that to inspire players, coaches should show them the way forward and provide clear messages on how they can be successful. They must demonstrate a calm belief in their players to achieve such success.</p>
<p>Jones is likely to be focusing on these key messages, such as working with the England team on strategies to overcome South Africa and reinforcing the players’ belief they have the skills and abilities to put those strategies into practice and emerge victorious.</p>
<p>A more recent research project that I was involved in, which also <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/sms.13513">examined inspirational coach leadership</a> and was published in June 2019, suggested that the players’ trust in their coach is at the heart of the process. Whatever Jones’ message, it appears the England team have full trust in their coach and the systems put in place to be successful. This may be key to why Jones is proving to have such an inspirational impact on the English side.</p>
<p>All England fans will be hoping that England approach the final with the right attitude and without feeling the pressure that might restrict the way they play and the intensity of their performance. They will be hoping that their team come out on Saturday, play with skill, flair and without fear – and justify their favourites tag.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126226/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How sports coaches can inspire their team to defy the odds and win.Matthew Smith, Senior Lecturer in Sport and Exercise Psychology, University of WinchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/872072017-11-15T13:29:16Z2017-11-15T13:29:16ZCape Crusaders: why some South Africans (still) support the Kiwis, not the Springboks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194590/original/file-20171114-27635-vu78ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The All Blacks after beating the Springboks 57-0 in New Zealand on September 16, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nigel Marple/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Politics and sport are inseparable. To paraphrase the famous military thinker <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2017-06-21-battle-lines-war-is-the-continuation-of-politics-by-other-means/#.WgrBsluCwdU">Carl von Clausewitz</a>, sport could be politics – or even warfare – by other means. This is even truer of sport at a national level: teams represent the political entity of a nation-state. This close relationship between sport and politics has always been apparent in South Africa, during apartheid and after.</p>
<p>An example with its roots in apartheid still plays itself out during every southern hemisphere rugby season. It occurs during <a href="http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugby/">Super Rugby</a> when South African club/ provincial teams play against their New Zealand, Australian, Argentinian and Japanese counterparts, and also when the former three teams’ national teams <a href="http://www.sanzarrugby.com/therugbychampionship/">play</a> against South Africa’s Springboks.</p>
<p>It happens specifically when New Zealand’s <a href="https://crusaders.co.nz/">Canterbury Crusaders</a> or its national team, the <a href="http://www.allblacks.com/">All Blacks</a>, play against their local opposition at Cape Town’s Newlands Stadium. These matches invariably scratch open old political wounds as the so-called <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/why-i-support-the-crusaders-1494658">“Cape Crusaders”</a> – wearing the Crusaders’ red or All Blacks’ black replica shirts – support the Kiwi team.</p>
<p>The debate around the Cape Crusaders prominently came into the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sport/rugby/2011-06-19-why-i-turned-my-back-on-the-boks/">public eye</a> in 1996 when Trevor Manuel, then South Africa’s Finance Minister, said he supported the All Blacks when they play the Springboks. </p>
<h2>Political and personal choice</h2>
<p>The Cape Crusaders are a sub-culture of South Africans of mixed race, also called <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/race-and-ethnicity-south-africa">coloureds</a>, mainly in the Western Cape province. They started supporting the Springboks’ opposition during apartheid: a deeply political and personal choice. </p>
<p>The apartheid government treated coloured people as inferior human beings. The white government brutally <a href="http://overcomingapartheid.msu.edu/multimedia.php?id=65-259-6">evicted</a> them from neighbourhoods around the country, <a href="http://www.saha.org.za/news/2010/February/district_six_recalling_the_forced_removals.htm">moving</a> them far afield from the white areas.</p>
<p>This policy of apartheid manifested in a number of other hurtful, discriminatory <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/reservation-separate-amenities-act-no-49-commences">ways</a>. At Newlands for example, coloured people were <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/10580588/Ghost-of-apartheid-haunts-Cape-Town-rugby">not allowed</a> to sit with whites. They were allocated their own stand behind the poles; the worst seats at the field.</p>
<p>Some started to support the opposition of the white and mostly Afrikaans-speaking Springboks, who represented and resembled their oppressors. This started with tours by the British and Irish Lions in the 1960s and 1970s. But ultimately the main team to support were the All Blacks, who came to be the Springboks’ big foes in the latter half of the twentieth century.</p>
<p>The support for the All Blacks and also the Crusaders (with eight titles the most successful team in Super Rugby) still <a href="http://www.rugby365.com/article/53012-cape-crusaders-cause-new-row">remains</a> to this day for many coloured people, despite apartheid officially ending in 1994 with South Africa’s first democratic election.</p>
<p>Talk to Cape Crusaders at an All Blacks vs Springboks test match – as I did during the Soweto test in 2012 – and you will hear that their decision is rooted in a personal history of discrimination and oppression. Their decision to support the Crusaders or All Blacks is more often than not rooted in past trauma, such as violence or intense racism perpetrated against their family or community by big, burly white Afrikaans policemen. </p>
<h2>The fatherland begins at home</h2>
<p>The Cape Crusaders’ choice is therefore usually rooted in two reasons: Firstly, because their father or grandfather supports them. The support of a national team is about patriotism for many; but for others, loyalty to your father is more important. This is a motivation for support of sport teams in general. The fatherland begins at home.</p>
<p>Secondly, the Springboks still carry the same symbolic baggage of white Afrikaans oppression to Cape Crusaders. The racial composition of the Springbok squad has <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/international/south-african-rugby-still-a-black-and-white-issue-1.2608188">changed</a>. But the rub of the matter is that most men in the team still resemble the former oppressors, even if only physically. </p>
<p>The political but especially the psychological import of this baggage brings back painful memories: of the policemen who came to your door during apartheid and dragged a bloodied family member away in handcuffs, or of the government bulldozers that came to flatten your house.</p>
<p>There is usually a <a href="http://www.sarugbymag.co.za/blog/details/the-cape-crusaders-debate">public outcry</a> in the media about the Cape Crusaders’ continuing support of Kiwi teams. The main gripe is that they are being unpatriotic by not supporting the South African team involved. They are even branded as <a href="https://www.news24.com/MyNews24/Why-South-Africans-support-the-Crusaders-and-the-All-Blacks-20130402">traitors</a>; some say that they should put the past behind them and <a href="http://www.thebounce.co.za/articles/sports/hey-cape-crusaders-it039s-time-to-move-on/3710">just move on</a>.</p>
<p>Statements like these reveal ignorance of the Cape Crusaders’ choice being rooted in a violent and unjust past. It is also too convenient to make such a statement if you or your kin was the former oppressor. And the idea that being South African means you support South African sport teams is far too thin a definition. This kind of talk also treats history as a series of stops and starts, with the view that the end of apartheid in 1994 brought an end to oppression and injustice.</p>
<p>History is a process that continues in the present and many facets of apartheid still continue albeit in a different guise. The past that people speak of is still very much with South Africans, especially in terms of the poverty and domestic trauma found in many coloured communities. A hasty judgement about the Cape Crusaders reveals historical amnesia and simply reinforces racial prejudices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Villet does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africans supporting visiting New Zealand rugby teams took root in a tumultuous time as an expression of defiance against apartheid.Charles Villet, Philosophy Lecturer, Faculty of Social and Health Sciences, Monash South Africa, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800122017-07-06T15:44:20Z2017-07-06T15:44:20ZWhat the All Blacks can teach athletes about accepting mental vulnerability<p>You probably know the New Zealand All Blacks – one of greatest and most successful of all sporting team identities – for their impressive on-pitch skills, or their practice of performing the traditional war cry, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiKFYTFJ_kw">the <em>haka</em></a>, before each rugby match. The team of bulky, imposing men stamping their feet and slapping their arms is one that few would forget.</p>
<p>What you may not know is that the team is as strong in mental health as they are in physical: a culture of acknowledgement, disclosure and acceptance of vulnerability is actively encouraged <a href="http://cardiffstudentmedia.co.uk/gairrhydd/how-sport-is-tackling-the-taboo-surrounding-mental-health/">from all players</a>. </p>
<p>“People tend to think vulnerability and high performance culture don’t mix. And that’s false … Accepting your vulnerability and having comfort in uncertainty is one method of managing stress,” Gilbert Enoka, mental skills coach to the All Blacks, <a href="https://www.gameplan-a.com/2017/03/make-mental-strength-your-strongest-skill/">recently said</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.the42.ie/red-heads-all-blacks-mental-skills-gazing-3055185-Oct2016/">All Blacks attitude</a> is one of “thriving” through and not merely “surviving” mental health challenges. This approach emphasises strength through adversity, and mental health vulnerability is seen as manageable, not as a defining character flaw of the athlete. By framing mental health issues in this way, it is an acknowledgement that everyone shares a vulnerability to mental health issues – regardless of societal position, or how “tough” a person may be perceived to be.</p>
<h2>Acceptance is not weakness</h2>
<p>In New Zealand, sporting body New Zealand Rugby (NZR) <a href="https://www.headfirst.co.nz/">plays an active role</a> in promoting mental health to its community, encouraging players, coaches, support staff, and their families, to take care of their own well-being and that of others. </p>
<p>Echoing Enoka, NZR education manager, <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11819721"> Nathan Price, believes</a>:
“There is a perception that rugby players are tough and asking for help is a sign of weakness. Our campaign is explicitly about breaking that down. Asking for help is actually incredibly courageous and very tough.” </p>
<p>However, while Rugby Union is making significant headway in tackling mental health issues <a href="https://therpa.co.uk/lifttheweight/">across the world</a>, not all sporting communities take the same approach, and disclosing mental health is still a significant challenge for many athletes.</p>
<h2>Mind the empathy gap</h2>
<p>For athletes, there are extra barriers to disclosing mental health issues on top of those one might experience outside sport. <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/health/2015/03/03/high-school-athletes-need-more-help-with-mental-health-issues.html">Margot Putukian</a>, director of athletic medicine, at Princeton University, has said that there is a prevailing assumption that “athletes should be able to ‘push through’ psychological obstacles as they do physical ones”. </p>
<p>“Suck it up, push through, brush it off. That becomes who you are and how you interact with the world,” former NFL football player <a href="http://www.apa.org/monitor/2017/01/nfl-playbook.aspx">Dwight Hollier</a> has said.</p>
<p>This is not just about “tough” sports like American football or rugby, however. Athletes at all levels can <a href="https://theconversation.com/super-human-athletes-are-at-risk-from-the-post-olympic-blues-heres-why-64266">face the same obstacles</a> when it comes to mental health, and this can dissuade professional athletes from expressing any sense of vulnerability. </p>
<p><a href="http://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2015/11/30/bjsports-2015-095570">Recent research</a> found that the incentives for athletes to ask for help and potentially get better are essentially outweighed by the negative consequences of appearing mentally weak. In 2016, top British jockey <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/depression-torments-riders-at-every-level/">Graham Lee</a> took some time away from the track due to what he and his agent said at the time was a virus. The reality was that he was suffering from crippling depression to the point where he began to hate the sport. </p>
<p>“I didn’t want to say I wasn’t riding because I was depressed, because it was a sign of weakness, so the best that my agent and I could think was to tell everyone I had a virus,” Lee has said.</p>
<p>Perhaps many working in professional sport all too readily turn a blind eye to the harsh reality that players’ and athletes’ participation is <a href="https://theconversation.com/elite-athletes-like-aaron-lennon-deserve-career-long-help-from-sport-psychologists-77190">inherently damaging</a> to mental health. </p>
<p>Sporting communities, and society in general, expect athletes to be <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/sport/carlisle-football-must-do-more-to-fight-depression-w38mf6gx5">superhuman</a>. But the truth is that they are <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/34452139">just as vulnerable</a> (and in some sports more so) to mental health issues than members of the general public. </p>
<h2>Vulnerability isn’t a weakness</h2>
<p>Sporting bodies do frequently encourage athletes to “just ask” if they ever need help, but still athletes are reluctant to do so out of risk of exposing themselves. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/34452139">Clarke Carlisle</a>, Professional Football Association (PFA) chairman, has suggested that in order to cope with ill mental health, sportsmen seek relief through drink, drugs, sex or gambling instead – all of which can lead to further mental disorder.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that great things aren’t being done in all sports to promote awareness and discussion around mental health. The PFA for example now provides a <a href="https://www.thepfa.com/wellbeing/sportingchance">24-hour helpline</a>, and funds residential treatment at the <a href="https://www.sportingchanceclinic.com">Sporting Chance clinic</a>. With such initiatives the industry is getting better at providing the necessary support – but it can only be accessed if the athlete feels able to disclosure their problem. </p>
<p>The fact is that not enough sporting teams or bodies are following a tactic of thriving, like the All Blacks. Elite athletes will only talk if those involved in sport demonstrate an empathy that permits such discussions. Everyone working in sport has a responsibility to help close the “empathy” gap, and show players and fans that disclosing mental health is not a weakness, it’s a sign of strength.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mikel Mellick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sport has a mental health problem, but rugby might have the answer.Mikel Mellick, Senior Lecturer in Athlete Mental Health, Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/746692017-05-23T13:27:05Z2017-05-23T13:27:05ZWhy the British and Irish Lions tour of New Zealand could be a roaring success<p>On Saturday June 3, the British and Irish Lions will play the first match of their <a href="http://www.lionsrugby.com/2017tour/index.php#.WSLbLoTsJto">2017 rugby tour of New Zealand</a>. It is the first of a gruelling ten match schedule which includes games against each of the five Super Rugby sides, the Maori All Blacks and three test matches against the reigning world champions, New Zealand. </p>
<p>This will be the 12th series for the Lions in New Zealand since the first in 1904, with just one series victory back in 1971. This time, the Lions squad face an All Blacks team ranked number one in the world, who have won their past 36 Tests at Eden Park, where two-thirds of the series will take place. New Zealand has only lost four times to teams from England, Ireland, Wales or Scotland since rugby union turned professional in 1995. Bookmakers are <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/rugby-union-lions-odds-idUKL3N1HR3YM">offering strong odds</a> for New Zealand to win the series 3-0. It seems unlikely then that the “best” players of British and Irish rugby will have much to roar about when they head back home.</p>
<p>However there should be a level of optimism for the team from the Northern Hemisphere. The <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2017/04/19/british-irish-lions-2017-squad-announcement-watch-live-updates/">precise selection</a> of the 41 players named in the 2017 squad (comprising of three Scotsmen, 15 Englishmen, 11 Irishmen and 12 Welshmen) illustrates the meticulous planning that has been put into defeating the world champions in their own backyard. </p>
<p>The forwards in particular, are an impressive blend of size, physicality and pace, while the decision to include seven recognised goal kickers represents the emphasis that head coach Warren Gatland places on scoring when opportunities arise. Players, coaches and supporters should be quietly confident in a squad which represents the pick of players from <a href="http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings/mru?lang=en">nations that are ranked</a> second, fourth, fifth and eighth in the world, and have a memorable <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/23210389">series victory over Australia</a> in 2013 as credit in the bank. Yet still the odds remain heavily stacked against the northern hemisphere side.</p>
<p>While rugby union has a history that dates back to the 19th century, it is only since the introduction of the Rugby World Cup that the southern hemisphere sides have noticeably dominated their northern hemisphere counterparts. Of the eight Rugby World Cups that have taken place, only once – England in 2003 – has a northern nation been successful. The most <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/32430465">recent tournament in 2015</a>, won by New Zealand, saw the semi-finals contested by only southern hemisphere countries.</p>
<p>Since 2010, New Zealand (32 wins in 34 games), South Africa (25 in 31) and Australia (27 in 39) have significantly superior records against their northern hemisphere rivals. </p>
<h2>Catching up with the southern sides</h2>
<p>However… The 2016 autumn internationals saw Ireland defeat New Zealand for the first time. England continued their resurgence under the tutelage of Eddie Jones by defeating South Africa, and notching up a fourth successive victory over Australia following a 3-0 series win during the previous summer tour. </p>
<p>An injury-hit Wales defeated Argentina, while Australia were fortunate to defeat Scotland. And while it could be argued that New Zealand, Australia and South Africa are going through a programme of rebuilding for the Rugby World Cup in 2019, the successes of 2016 suggests that the northern hemisphere teams are developing faster.</p>
<p>By the time of the first test match against the Lions on June 24, New Zealand will not have played as a team for seven months. Their opponents by contrast, will have played practice matches against six full strength domestic teams. </p>
<p>And although the single defeat by Ireland does not signify that troubled times are ahead for New Zealand, it does illustrate that New Zealand’s programme of rebuilding is a work in progress. The absence of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith, who all retired from international rugby after the 2015 Rugby World Cup, may be keenly felt in the weeks to come. </p>
<p>New Zealand will be under more pressure this summer than they have been in recent history. And if this Lions squad was visiting Australia or South Africa, they would surely be the bookies’ favourites. But with rugby fans around the world eagerly anticipating the challenge ahead, this could be an almighty chance for the Lions to show they have claws.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Rayner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Taking on the All Blacks is a daunting task – but there is hope for the visitors.Mike Rayner, Senior Lecturer in Sports Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/509382015-11-19T15:41:24Z2015-11-19T15:41:24ZExplainer: what is the kidney disorder that Jonah Lomu had?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102517/original/image-20151119-18418-1ms6r53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rugby legend Jonah Lomu had a rare kidney disorder</span> </figcaption></figure><p>All Blacks rugby player Jonah Lomu <a href="https://theconversation.com/legend-hero-gentleman-jonah-lomu-changed-the-face-of-rugby-50940">has died</a>, aged 40. Lomu died of a heart attack, thought to have been a complication of the rare kidney disorder he’d been suffering from for most of his adult life. </p>
<p>The disorder, nephrotic syndrome, is a fairly rare disease with just two or three new cases <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2394708/">per 100,000 of the population</a> each year. But what exactly is it?</p>
<p>A nephron is a functioning unit within the kidney. Each nephron has a filter (called a glomerulus) and a drainpipe (a tubule), and there are about a million nephrons in a kidney, each acting in concert to clean the blood and regulate the body’s salt and water content. </p>
<p>The kidney cleans the blood over and over, at an incredible rate <a href="http://www.worldkidneyday.co.uk/kidney-facts/">of 180 litres a day</a>. Most of us have two kidneys which normally allows a lifetime’s worth of blood filtering to be performed.</p>
<h2>Nephrotic syndrome</h2>
<p>There are several diseases of the kidney where the filters of the nephron become damaged. This leads to a loss of large amounts of protein in the urine (when there should normally be very little), which leads to low blood protein levels and body swelling, known as oedema. It is this combination of symptoms and signs that is called nephrotic syndrome. It was first described in 1821, yet we are still learning new features of this condition.</p>
<p>There may be many different underlying causes, which include rare inherited forms, specific diseases of the glomerulus and secondary causes due to other medical conditions, such as diabetes, and drugs, <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2218757/">such as Gold</a>, which is used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. </p>
<p>The consequences of nephrotic syndrome are severe. Complications that commonly occur include blood clotting problems (due to urinary loss of key proteins that prevent blood clotting), risk of serious infections (due to low blood protein levels) and kidney failure. </p>
<p>There are treatments for nephrotic syndrome, but no cure. Treatment often includes high dose steroid therapy and anticoagulants to prevent blood clots as well as diuretic tablets to control body swelling.</p>
<h2>Dialysis</h2>
<p>Certain underlying causes of nephrotic syndrome will eventually lead to complete kidney failure. This has devastating consequences and often means the patient has to rely on renal dialysis - where a machine does the job of the kidneys - until a kidney transplant can be performed. People can survive for many years on dialysis, but survival is often a long way from full health. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102482/original/image-20151119-18413-1fkge46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102482/original/image-20151119-18413-1fkge46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102482/original/image-20151119-18413-1fkge46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102482/original/image-20151119-18413-1fkge46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102482/original/image-20151119-18413-1fkge46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102482/original/image-20151119-18413-1fkge46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102482/original/image-20151119-18413-1fkge46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People can survive for many years on dialysis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=L-tprIwabOA-H-CENhNYUw&searchterm=kidney%20dialysis&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=photos&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=172564250">www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>Dialysis may be performed by cleaning the blood three times a week using an artificial kidney (haemodialysis) or by using the abdominal cavity on a daily basis (peritoneal dialysis). Both treatments can be performed at home with the support of a healthcare professional.</p>
<p>However, life expectancy of a dialysis patient is severely limited, with the average being <a href="https://www.kidney.org/atoz/content/dialysisinfo">just five to ten years</a>. It is possible to live for 20 or more years on dialysis but this is the exception rather than the rule.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Kidney-transplant/Pages/Introduction.aspx">kidney transplant</a> is the best treatment for kidney failure. A transplant returns life expectancy to <a href="https://www.kidneyresearchuk.org/health-information/kidney-transplantation">near normal values</a>. But transplanted kidneys tend to wear out faster than the kidneys you were born with and sometimes the original cause of nephrotic syndrome can recur after the kidney transplant. Often a second kidney transplant is needed when this happens. </p>
<p>It seems that, over several years, Lomu’s own kidneys failed and he received a transplant at the age of 29, which went on to function for the next seven years before failing. </p>
<h2>Understanding the genetic causes</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4310431/pdf/sfu129.pdf">Research at Newcastle University</a> aims to understand the genetic causes of nephrotic syndrome. This is where an inherited change in a gene predisposes patients to kidney disease resulting in a protein leak. Although we are born with our set of genes, often it isn’t until adult life that these conditions appear. Knowing the underlying genetic condition can allow early detection of the disease in other family members and allow treatments to be developed. It also gives information about whether the condition will recur in a kidney transplant. </p>
<p>The Genomics England <a href="http://www.genomicsengland.co.uk/">100,000 genomes project</a>, which has been piloted at our university over the past few years, is a platform to study inherited kidney conditions such as nephrotic syndrome. Here, the genome is sequenced and analysed to identify disease causing variants. It was through this project that whole genome sequencing successfully identified the underlying genetic cause <a href="http://www.genomicsengland.co.uk/first-patients-diagnosed-through-the-100000-genomes-project/">in a Newcastle family</a> with an inherited form of nephrotic syndrome and kidney failure. </p>
<p>Knowing the underlying genetic predisposition for rare kidney disorders such as nephrotic syndrome is the starting point for developing a better understanding of the disease and developing treatments that can prevent the ongoing kidney damage that leads to kidney failure and all its devastating consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50938/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:john.sayer@ncl.ac.uk">john.sayer@ncl.ac.uk</a> receives funding from MRC, Kidney Research UK, Kids Kidney Research, Northern Counties Kidney Research Fund and Newcastle Hospitals Healthcare Charity. </span></em></p>All Blacks legend, Jonah Lomu, suffered from nephrotic syndrome for most of his adult life. Here is what we know about the rare condition.John Sayer, Senior clinical lecturer in nephrology, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/490132015-10-13T12:12:01Z2015-10-13T12:12:01ZRugby World Cup: how referee profiling became vital part of match preparation<p>As the whistle blew on Japan’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2015/oct/11/usa-japan-rugby-world-cup-2015-live">28-18 victory</a> over the USA in the Rugby World Cup on October 11, the curtain came down on the group stages. So began a six-day gap before the quarter finals get underway – starting with South Africa v Wales at Twickenham on Saturday October 17. </p>
<p>Don’t be surprised if referees take the limelight. England’s <a href="http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/story/_/id/13794800/stuart-lancaster-england-knocked-2015-rugby-world-cup-defeat-australia">early exit</a> opens the way for an interesting appointment, for instance, since English officials will now count as neutrals in all remaining games. Wayne Barnes is regarded as the best match official in England, but New Zealanders would prefer he didn’t officiate in the latter stages. They recall <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2007/oct/09/rugbyunion.rugbyworldcup20074">his error</a> in their <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2007/oct/08/rugbyunion.rugbyworldcup200714">2007 quarter final</a>, missing a key illegal forward pass by France. But with another quarter-final clash between the two nations lined up for Cardiff on October 17, Barnes is <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/international/72914560/wayne-barnes-a-possibility-to-ref-the-all-blacks-cardiff-rugby-world-cup-rematch">being touted</a> as the possible referee. </p>
<p>Then there was 2011. Twenty minutes into the highly charged <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/15307018">semi-final between Wales and France</a>, with Wales leading by a single penalty, their captain Sam Warburton was penalised for a dangerous tackle on the French winger. As commentators debated whether it was accidental and whether a yellow card and ten minutes in the “sin bin” would follow, the officials deemed it a red-card offence. Sending Warburton off effectively ended the game. </p>
<p>The referee also took stick in the final between France and New Zealand. The game was won by New Zealand – but instead of focusing on the poor play, many headlines were about the <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11509686">performance of</a> Craig Joubert, the South African referee, who appeared to favour the All Blacks at key moments. </p>
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<h2>How top referees think</h2>
<p>Sport psychology has focused less on referees than players, coaches and teams, but certainly top officials are not ten a penny. The <a href="http://collections.crest.ac.uk/177/1/fulltext.pdf">limited research suggests</a> the best ones excel at organising their knowledge and experience – in ways similar to top chess players or musicians. Rather than reacting to apparently random sequences of information, they perceive organised “whole” patterns which they can then interpret more efficiently. </p>
<p>They speed up decision making with mental rules of thumb. An example is scrums, one of the most difficult areas to officiate. Top referees will avoid the thankless task of focusing on the many reasons for a scrum to fail, some legal and some illegal. Instead they will decide the main cause and award a sanction or not on that basis. The best referees must also cope with the fatigue of sprinting around for 80 minutes, while managing complex and volatile on-field relationships. </p>
<p>In an era of marginal gains, teams who can predict their official’s behaviour will have a potential advantage. Long before the World Cup began, you can be sure they were analysing the past performances of the officials with whom they would be sharing the field – just like with opposing players and coaches. They will want to know officials’ patterns of behaviour around things like refereeing set pieces; whether they are more prone to award penalties in the final few minutes of each half; and their willingness to play advantage. This allows teams to adjust their tactics and game management accordingly. </p>
<p>I see differences between refereeing nationalities, for example. French referees are very tuned into things like scrums and <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/rules_and_equipment/4205664.stm">line outs</a>, due to the emphasis on forward power in the <a href="http://www.scorespro.com/rugby-union/france/top-14/">Top 14 league</a> in France. On the other hand, southern hemisphere referees are generally better at open play. </p>
<p>One of the <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/scourge-scrum-wales-top-referee-8451864#ICID=sharebar_twitter">hardest referees to profile</a> is Nigel Owens, possibly the best-known official in the tournament. The Welshman is highly regarded by players and spectators because he allows the game to flow, but unpredictable because he tends to be more collaborative than authoritarian, responding to how players respond to him. He certainly operates with the rules of thumb that you see in top referees, but very flexibly. He is also a great communicator who “sells” decisions to players, often with humour – undoubtedly helped by his sideline in stand-up comedy. </p>
<h2>The new whistle</h2>
<p>Savvy teams will also have done their homework on the TMO (television match official), an acronym the tournament will have introduced to many sports fans. First used in the World Cup in 2011, the TMO is a shadowy figure, often sitting in a mobile video suite in the car park of the playing venue. He is rarely seen, but heard by the millions of viewers to provide ultimate judgement on the key decisions. </p>
<p>Consulting with the TMO has become integral to the refereeing process, but it can get out hand. The first game of the current tournament, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/rugby-world-cup/11870090/England-vs-Fiji-Rugby-World-Cup-live.html">England v Fiji</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2015/sep/19/tmo-england-fiji-referee-jaco-peyper-wales-uruguay-rugby-world-cup">took over</a> 100 minutes rather than the allotted 80, due to six lengthy TMO referrals by referee Jaco Peyper. This pattern has been repeated. Very few referees now appear willing to back their own real-time decision making, backed up by their touch judges on the sidelines. </p>
<p>Rugby has always had a tradition of ultimate respect for its match officials. Players still call the referee “sir”, and any criticism of a decision is severely sanctioned (witness England hooker Dylan Hartley’s 11-week ban in 2013 for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/may/26/leicester-northampton-dylan-hartley-lions">accusing</a> an official of being a “fucking cheat”). The TMO may undermine this unquestioning respect. Captains appear to be requesting that the TMO is involved in cases which may favour their team. By embracing this technology, rugby union risks loses something very precious – <a href="http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/cricket/drs-spells-undermining-of-respect-for-the-game-s-umpires-1-2317212">we have seen</a> cricket develop a similar authority issue due to the decision review system, for instance. </p>
<p>While many fret about how TMOs will affect rugby union in the long term, we shall see if the closing stages of this tournament add anything to the debate. In the meantime, we can all cross our fingers for the best possible refereeing. An outstanding example might be Nigel Owens at the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/oct/05/south-africa-new-zealand-rugby-championship">Rugby Championship finale of 2013</a>, where South Africa needed to beat the All Blacks to win the competition (and failed): he played a blinder but no one noticed. You can’t ask for anything more.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Westbury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Controversial refereeing decisions dogged the later stages of the last couple of World Cups. Little wonder that teams are doing their homework on officials like never before.Tony Westbury, Lecturer in Sport Psychology, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.