tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/eastern-ghouta-50454/articlesEastern Ghouta – The Conversation2018-04-09T13:22:18Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/946682018-04-09T13:22:18Z2018-04-09T13:22:18ZSyria’s latest chemical massacre demands a global response<p>Seven years into its catastrophic conflict, Syria has witnessed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/08/syria-aid-workers-tell-of-apocalyptic-scenes-douma-alleged-chemical-attack">yet another major chemical strike</a>. This time the target was the rebel-held city of Douma in Eastern Ghouta, just outside Damascus. The death toll currently stands at <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43686157">around 70</a> – making the attack as deadly as the infamous sarin strike at <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39500947">Khan Sheikhoun</a> almost exactly a year ago to the day. It is thought the number of confirmed fatalities could <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-attack/trump-says-big-price-to-pay-for-syria-chemical-attack-idUSKBN1HE0RR">rise to 150</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-syrias-white-helmets-and-why-are-they-so-controversial-66580">White Helmets</a> have reported that most of the victims were women and children. A <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/syria-chemical-attack-most-of-them-were-going-to-die-1.3454861">local journalist</a> said the scene “was like judgement day … the situation, the fear, and the destruction are indescribable”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-syrias-white-helmets-and-why-are-they-so-controversial-66580">Who are Syria's White Helmets, and why are they so controversial?</a>
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<p>Like previous incidents, the attack has been widely blamed on Bashar al-Assad’s government. The agent used has not been confirmed. Witnesses say they smelled chlorine, but the sheer level of destruction suggests that something more lethal may have been used as well. There are allegations that the regime used a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-chemical-weapons-attack-latest-sarin-douma-eastern-ghouta-nerve-agent-chlorine-russia-us-uk-a8294741.html">sarin barrel bomb</a>.</p>
<p>Whatever the precise details, no-one should be surprised by what has happened. Horrified, yes – but Assad has <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Activity">repeatedly used</a> chemical weapons in the civil conflict since 2012, and clearly he is not inclined to stop.</p>
<p>As per usual, the incident has attracted condemnation from Assad’s enemies around the world. US President Donald Trump <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982966315467116544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">tweeted</a> that there will be a “big price” to pay for the attack, and derided Assad as an “animal”. The European Union <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-gouta-eu/eu-calls-for-response-to-yet-another-chemical-attack-in-syria-idUSKBN1HF0PQ">called</a> for “an immediate response by the international community”. <a href="http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/World/Pope-Francis-condemns-use-chemical-weapons-Syria/688340-4378246-d6vaqtz/index.html">Pope Francis</a> weighed in too: “Nothing, nothing can justify the use of such devices of extermination against defenceless people and populations.”</p>
<p>Tough talk indeed. But whether or not this turns into decisive action is another story. After all, we have been here many times before.</p>
<h2>Enough is enough</h2>
<p>This isn’t to say the world hasn’t responded at all. After Khan Shaykhun last year, for example, Trump ordered <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-strikes-in-syria-illegal-ineffective-and-dangerous-75936">missile strikes</a> against a Syrian airbase with 59 Tomahawk missiles. His reference to a “big price” suggests there could be a similar move in the offing. Asked how the US might respond to the latest attack, White House homeland security adviser <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-syria-bossert/white-house-official-says-wont-take-anything-off-the-table-in-response-to-syria-attack-idUSKBN1HF0IN">Tom Bossert</a> was asked whether a US response was coming and replied, “I wouldn’t take anything off the table”.</p>
<p>But previous measures, including Trump’s missile strikes, have achieved little. Many at the United Nations have worked hard to bring Assad and his allies to account, but they have been stymied by Russia’s Security Council veto. Former US president, Barack Obama, succeeded in getting Assad to the negotiating table and – together with the support of Russia – he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/10/russia-un-syrian-chemical-weapons">agreed to accede Syria</a> to the <a href="https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/">Chemical Weapons Convention</a>, the main international agreement that bans and eliminates chemical arms. But Assad still continues to use chemical arms.</p>
<p>Even if these moves have limited the scale of the Syrian government’s chemical attacks, they have continued. Trump and his administration have repeatedly said Trump will <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/daily-press-briefing-press-secretary-sean-spicer-041017/">observe the red line</a> against chemical warfare set by his Obama – but the line is still being crossed, again and again and again.</p>
<p>As well as the big attacks that make headlines, Assad has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/24/syria-regime-accused-of-using-chlorine-bombs-on-civilians">repeatedly overseen smaller chlorine strikes</a>. In 2017, Trump was asked in an interview about Assad’s use of chlorine – and <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/DCPD-201700615/pdf/DCPD-201700615.pdf">Trump didn’t even know</a> that Assad was still using chemical weapons. This doesn’t suggest the president is treating this as a priority. The world is acting, but it isn’t doing enough.</p>
<h2>Securing the future</h2>
<p>Failing to act decisively now could set off a domino effect. Allowing anyone to carry out chemical strikes with impunity sends a dangerous message. If Assad is not held to his account for his actions, why should anyone else stop short of chemical violence for fear of the world’s wrath? </p>
<p>Punishing violators in itself reinforces, supports and promotes the convention’s ideals. Leaving them unpunished weakens the norm that chemical warfare is wrong – and failing to make an example of Assad threatens the entire weapons control regime. Some <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/07/after-syria-is-there-still-a-taboo-against-the-use-of-chemical-weapons/?utm_term=.5f74b9469573">argue</a> that violations will not necessarily bring down the Chemical Weapons Convention, but their arguments assume that those who do violate it will be punished somehow. </p>
<p>The world’s progress in controlling chemical weapons should not be underestimated, and the admittedly limited measures such as Trump’s missile strikes that have been taken against Assad deserve credit. Still, it’s incumbent on all those with the power to intervene to ask themselves how many times we have to see horrific and traumatic images of chemical warfare before stronger action is taken.</p>
<p>It’s very easy to sit in front of a computer and type this. It’s hardly an easy problem to solve, especially while Russia continues to support Assad’s government and its forces. But there are severe implications if Assad is not stopped.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/syria-could-a-new-foreign-military-intervention-be-illegal-94838">Syria: could a new foreign military intervention be illegal?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Bentley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nothing the world has done has stopped Bashar al-Assad’s regime from using chemical weapons – but it’s imperative to keep trying.Michelle Bentley, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/926432018-03-21T10:46:51Z2018-03-21T10:46:51ZBombed and gassed into oblivion: The lost oasis of Damascus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211197/original/file-20180320-31605-thmu7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Syrians go on a picnic on Friday, March 14, 2008 in Ghouta, before the destruction of the region. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP/Bassem Tellawi)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dozens of people, including children, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-chemical-weapon-attack-douma-leaves-dozens-dead-opposition-says-04-08-2018/">were killed</a> this past weekend by an alleged chemical weapons attack in the eastern Ghouta city of Douma. The attack is the latest reminder that Ghouta, the one-time oasis of Damascus, is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-ghouta/damascus-sees-some-ghouta-rebels-accepting-deals-soon-idUSKBN1GV1NG">being destroyed</a>. Every day brings with it news of renewed <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43154146">bombing</a>, deadly <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/syria-chemical-attack-suspected-eastern-ghouta-siege-180226142923247.html">gassing</a> and starved or crushed <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/28/17057736/syria-eastern-ghouta-attack-assad">bodies</a>, accompanied by desperate scenes of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-ghouta/thousands-flee-in-first-mass-exodus-from-syrias-besieged-eastern-ghouta-idUSKCN1GR0VM">mass exodus</a>. </p>
<p>Located a mere seven miles from Bashar Al Assad’s palace, Ghouta is the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/17/middleeast/syria-ghouta-evacuations-afrin-hospital/index.html">last surviving rebel enclave</a> close to Syria’s capital, where the Assad family’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/14/dictator-son-assad-grip-power">dictatorial regime</a> has ruled <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/hands-power-rise-syrias-assad-family">for 47 years.</a></p>
<p>The Syrian revolution that began seven years ago has failed, and the death rattles out of Eastern Ghouta are among its tragic dying gasps. But the political facts, while somber and tragic, fail to tell the full story of Ghouta – the story of its history and beauty.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="http://boisestate.academia.edu/KarenPinto">scholar</a> of Islamic cartography who studies the depiction of geographical places in history. I have visited Ghouta, which now contains suburbs of Damascus as well as agricultural land. I have met its people and enjoyed its sights, sounds, smells and tastes. As the world watches the daily news of the destruction of the once majestic city, it is important to remember this city’s exalted past, when it was hailed as the green halo of Damascus.</p>
<h2>An abundant oasis</h2>
<p>Ghouta ( غوطة دمشق / Ghūṭat Dimashq) was once Damascus’s fertile beltway. For millennia, its lands produced vegetables and fruits and <a href="https://www.syrianef.org/assets/estimate_position/english/agriculture_en.pdf">fed Damascus</a>. It was especially well-known for its delicious pomegranates. </p>
<p>Without Ghouta to feed it, Damascus would not have survived and achieved its distinction as one of the oldest continuously occupied cities in the world. Dating back to 10,000-8,000 B.C., <a href="http://www.learn.columbia.edu/ma/htm/dj_islam/ma_dji_gloss_damascus.htm">Damascus lies</a> along the southern terrace of Mount Qasiyun in the foothills of the mountains on Syria’s border with Lebanon. Watered by the Barada River, the green zone of Ghouta is Damascus’ final frontier before the Great Syrian Desert. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210903/original/file-20180318-104663-mrta4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210903/original/file-20180318-104663-mrta4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210903/original/file-20180318-104663-mrta4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210903/original/file-20180318-104663-mrta4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210903/original/file-20180318-104663-mrta4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210903/original/file-20180318-104663-mrta4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210903/original/file-20180318-104663-mrta4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">1903 photo of Damascus with Ghouta’s gardens in the distance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Keystone-Mast Collection, UCR/California Museum of Photography, University of California at Riverside</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>So famous was Ghouta that its name ( غوطة / Ghūṭa) has morphed into the generic name in Arabic for <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=zHxsWspxGIIC&pg=PA117&lpg=PA117&dq=%22abundantly+irrigated+areas+of+intense+cultivation+surrounded+by+arid+land.%22&source=bl&ots=1R3hvltcdN&sig=V3CiDn4orKoLCOnWixFNwaE2gu4&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi6t8ag3_vZAhWiuFkKHa5PADEQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=%22abundantly%20irrigated%20areas%20of%20intense%20cultivation%20surrounded%20by%20arid%20land.%22&f=false">“abundantly irrigated areas of intense cultivation surrounded by arid land.”</a> </p>
<p>Indeed, this special space has had such an impact on the Arab psyche that it has mapped itself onto the language as the word for greenery. Edward Lane, in his classic <a href="https://lanelexicondotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/lane-an-arabic-english-lexicon.pdf">“Arabic-English Lexicon of 1877</a>,” says the word stands for “a place comprising water and herbage.” He specifically references the “Ghūṭa of Dimashq” – in English, “Ghouta of Damascus” – as “a place abounding with water and trees.” </p>
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<span class="caption">1588 stylized map from Georg Braun’s ‘Civitates orbis terrarum’ showing Damascus surrounded by the green fields of Ghouta, creating the visual impression of a green halo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Georg Braun, via Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
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<p>The geographer al-Muqaddasi, who visited the area in the late 10th century, ranked Ghouta as one of the three most delightful places in the Muslim world, alongside the valley of Samarqand and the <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Best_Divisions_for_Knowledge_of_the.html?id=C2JO9m01lFMC">estuary of the Tigris</a>. Indeed Muslim tradition considers Damascus’s Ghouta to be one of the few paradises on Earth. </p>
<h2>Ghouta as protector</h2>
<p>History tells us that the lush lands of Ghouta served another purpose too. Mentioned by Arab chroniclers from the time of the earliest Muslim conquests during the period of the <a href="http://www.softschools.com/timelines/rashidun_caliphate_timeline/333/">Rashidun (Rightly-Guided) Caliphate</a> of the mid-seventh century, the orchards acted as a moat of trees that protected Damascus from attack. This was yet another way in which Ghouta made it possible for Damascus to survive and flourish for three millennia. Ghouta’s role in war as protector of Damascus was memorialized in a story of the Prophet:</p>
<p>“The Prophet (ﷺ) said: The place of assembly of the Muslims at the time of the war will be in al-Ghutah near a city called Damascus, <a href="https://sunnah.com/abudawud/39/8">one of the best cities in Syria</a>.” </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210905/original/file-20180318-104676-1xa6y7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210905/original/file-20180318-104676-1xa6y7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210905/original/file-20180318-104676-1xa6y7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210905/original/file-20180318-104676-1xa6y7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210905/original/file-20180318-104676-1xa6y7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210905/original/file-20180318-104676-1xa6y7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210905/original/file-20180318-104676-1xa6y7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">View of Ghouta and Al Kiswah farms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAlsaiad</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Many travelers passed through Ghouta on their way to Damascus and were inspired to write about it. Ibn Jubayr, the 12th-century Andalusi who made a pilgrimage from Cordoba to Mecca, returned home via Syria and Sicily in 1184 and described the gardens of Ghouta as <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/title/travels-of-ibn-jubayr-translated-by-rjc-broadhurst-with-an-introduction-and-notes-with-maps/oclc/562843820">“beauty beyond description.”</a> Ghouta encircled Damascus, he wrote, “like the halo round the moon,” containing it as if “it were the calyx of a flower.”</p>
<p>The famous Syrian scholar, historian and poet, Muhammad Kurd Ali, who lived from 1876 to 1953, devoted <a href="https://www.revolvy.com/main/index.php?s=Muhammad%20Kurd%20Ali&item_type=topic">an entire book to celebrating Ghouta in verse.</a> And there is a popular myth that Ghouta was originally located in heaven and <a href="http://www.esyria.sy/edamascus/index.php?p=stories&category=literature&filename=201409060917363">brought down to Earth by God at Adam’s request.</a></p>
<p>As a cartographer watching the destruction from afar, I see it as if Damascus is destroying one of its own arms. Such is the unspeakable tragedy of Ghouta as the death toll continues to rise, and paradise long lost comes to a terrible <a href="https://www.journalducameroun.com/en/syria-regime-captures-half-of-ghouta-enclave-as-death-toll-climbs-3/">end</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Pinto previously received funding from National Endowment of the Humanities NEH, American Philosophical Society APS.
2013 NEH Fellowship; 2016 Franklin Grant from APS.</span></em></p>Ghouta, Syria is being destroyed. The latest news tells of at least 40 residents killed in a chemical weapons attack. But Ghouta’s past was all about beauty, and its very name meant “green oasis.”Karen Pinto, Assistant Professor of History, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/923502018-03-01T19:18:54Z2018-03-01T19:18:54ZThe Syrian ‘hell on earth’ is a tangle of power plays unlikely to end soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208190/original/file-20180227-36693-1802hqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Until the jihadist rebel groups are wiped out, there will be more civilian casualties, like this man and young boy in Eastern Ghouta.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Bassam Khabieh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Once again, unfortunate civilians are trapped in the “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/eastern-ghouta-syria-civilians-deaths-trapped-damascus-siege-assad-regime-rebels-killed-a8229211.html">hell on earth</a>” that the Syrian civil war has become. This time it is the turn of the 400,000 residents of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/eastern-ghouta-happening-180226110239822.html">Eastern Ghouta</a>, ten kilometres east of the capital Damascus. Latest reports put civilian casualties at 520 and thousands wounded under the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/24/syria-death-toll-nears-500-as-eastern-ghouta-bombing-continues">heavy assault</a> launched by President Bashar al-Assad’s ground forces supported by Russian air strikes.</p>
<p>It seems conditions in Syria are getting worse, and there is no end to the conflict.</p>
<p>The end to any violent conflict comes when either the warring sides realise the devastation they cause and make peace; outside intervention sways the warring parties to end the conflict; or there are clear winners delivering a crushing defeat to their enemies.</p>
<p>None of the warring factions seem to care about the devastation of the seven-year civil war. Almost the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/syria">entire country is rubble</a> – more than 400,000 people have died, there are 5 million Syrian refugees and more than 6 million displaced. Unfortunately, the peace option seems highly unlikely.</p>
<p>There had been international intervention through peace initiatives since 2013, when the then US secretary of state, John Kerry, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24628442">lamented that Syria</a> “heads closer to an abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos”. It was a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23927399">chemical attack in Eastern Ghouta</a> that prompted the United Nations to pass a resolution in 2013 demanding the destruction of chemical stockpiles and giving impetus to <a href="http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2118.pdf">peace talks in Geneva</a>. All efforts to make progress on these talks were continually stalled. The parties failed to meet even <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/02/23/give-peace-no-chance-syrian-talks-doomed-to-fail-in-geneva">as late as 2017</a>, painfully expediting Kerry’s apocalyptic prediction.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/stakes-are-high-as-turkey-russia-and-the-us-tussle-over-the-future-of-syria-90454">Stakes are high as Turkey, Russia and the US tussle over the future of Syria</a>
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<p>The Geneva talks were paralleled by a Russian-led peace initiative in Kazakhstan and later in Sochi. These talks could not have been expected to succeed, given that Russia’s unconditional and active support of the Assad regime hampered any attempt at brokering a peace deal.</p>
<p>Apart from the vested interests and insincerity, the biggest stumbling block has been disagreement over who to include in the peace process. The US <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-tillerson/no-role-for-assad-in-syrias-future-tillerson-idUSKBN1CV2GY">does not want Assad or Iran</a> involved; Turkey does not want the Kurdish People’s Defence Unit (YPG); and Russia does not want any of the jihadist rebel groups.</p>
<p>The sheer number of rebel groups is another issue. In the relatively small area of Eastern Ghouta alone, there are <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/who-are-the-rebel-groups-fighting-in-syria-s-eastern-ghouta">three rebel groups</a>, which often bicker with one another.</p>
<p>Since the conflict began in 2011, nearly 200 separate rebel groups have sporadically emerged. Although most of these later <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003">merged into larger entities</a>, there are still too many groups. Their inclusion in any peace process has been problematic, because it is unclear who actually represents the Syrian opposition, not to mention the groups’ refusal to sit at the same table.</p>
<p>Then there is the thorny issue of ideological and religious differences. Shiite Syrians and a segment of secular Sunni Muslims support the Assad regime, whereas the largest chunk of the rebel groups are Salafi jihadists. The exceptions are the Kurdish YPG and the largely weakened Free Syrian Army.</p>
<p>All along, Assad’s regime has been claiming it is fighting IS, Al-Qaeda and other Salafi jihadist groups to keep Syria a modern secular state. Putin is pushing Assad to wipe out these groups, spurred by the deep fear they could mobilise radical Muslim groups <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-war-in-syria-and-the-possibility-of-removing-assad-76006">within Russia’s borders</a>.</p>
<p>The US and Europe are in the cognitive dissonance of wanting neither Assad nor jihadist groups to gain control in Syria. They don’t want Assad, but they like his argument of protecting a modern secular Syria. The unspoken preference is for Assad over any Jihadi rebel group.</p>
<p>So, the lack of an effective peace intervention and the impossibility of parties sitting down to negotiate leaves only the option of fighting it out until clear victors emerge.</p>
<p>This leaves the Assad regime with a free run to assert itself as the only feasible and legitimate government in Syria, a possibility that may indeed eventuate.</p>
<p>This is the strategic line the Assad regime has drawn thick on the ground. It explains why Assad forces <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/25/world/middleeast/syria-united-nations-ceasefire-ghouta.html">have ignored</a> the UN’s 30-day ceasefire resolution. Putin’s disregard for the resolution, by reducing it to a farcical <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/27/middleeast/putin-ceasefire-syria-intl/index.html">five-hour window</a>, shows that neither Assad nor Putin wants the rebels to regroup and gain strength. They want a quick and absolute victory, even if it is a bloodbath.</p>
<p>Just as it is almost certain that the rebels of Eastern Ghouta will fall, it is equally certain Assad forces will next intensify <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-civil-war-eastern-ghouta-assad-regime-rebels-talks-artillery-air-strikes-a8224701.html">the siege of Idlib</a>, a northeastern city held by the Salafi jihadist rebel group Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This pattern will continue until all rebel groups are wiped out.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/syria-is-a-mess-but-the-solution-is-complicated-too-76214">Syria is a mess, but the solution is complicated too</a>
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<p>It is unlikely there will be any fighting between Assad forces and the Kurdish YPG, as that would mean an open confrontation between Russia and the US. After the US supported the YPG, it successfully ended Islamic State’s presence in eastern Syria. The US has made it clear it is there to stay, establishing a 30,000-strong <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/world/middleeast/syria-kurds-force.html">border security force</a> as a deterrent against IS regrouping, but more importantly to stop Assad attacking Kurdish regions once he clears the ground of rebel groups in his territory.</p>
<p>The wild card in Syria is Turkey’s unpredictable president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He aims to establish Turkey in northeastern Syria as a third major player along with Russia and the US, by <a href="https://theconversation.com/stakes-are-high-as-turkey-russia-and-the-us-tussle-over-the-future-of-syria-90454">fighting alongside</a> elements of the Free Syrian Army to capture the Kurdish-controlled district of Afrin. </p>
<p>Whether Russia and the US will allow Erdogan to realise his objectives remains to be seen. He may find he is out of his league when <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/turkey-united-states-syria-manbij-bargain.html">things get tough on the ground</a>, forcing him out of Syria.</p>
<p>The Syrian conflict will end only if the Russian-supported Assad regime wipes out all Salafi jihadist rebel groups and regains control of western Syria and its most important cities. This may be before the end of 2018. In the meantime, the international community should be prepared to lament more civilian casualties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mehmet Ozalp is affiliated with Islamic Sciences and Research Academy of Australia (ISRA). </span></em></p>Despite a devastating toll in the seven-year conflict, which has seen 400,000 people killed and six million displaced, there is no end in sight for the people of Syria.Mehmet Ozalp, Associate Professor in Islamic Studies, Director of The Centre for Islamic Studies and Civilisation and Executive Member of Public and Contextual Theology, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.