tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/india-elections-2019-71373/articlesIndia elections 2019 – The Conversation2019-05-27T17:13:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1177942019-05-27T17:13:47Z2019-05-27T17:13:47ZIndia’s Prime Minister Modi pursues politics of Hindu nationalism – what does that mean?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276474/original/file-20190526-187143-1591cv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is garlanded after winning the elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/India-Elections-Fresh-Mandate/084e245a09ec4254860de8ec291ad491/19/0">AP Photo/Manish Swarup</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Almost immediately after winning a second term in office on May 23, India’s Prime Minister Modi gave a speech <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/23/asia/india-election-modi-gandhi-bjp-congress-intl/index.html">making light</a> of parties and individuals who had espoused secularism over the past five years. </p>
<p>During the five years while the Indian government has been led by Modi and the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party – or BJP – several <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2019/02/18/violent-cow-protection-india/vigilante-groups-attack-minorities">Muslims were lynched</a> on allegations of eating beef or even just transporting cattle for slaughter. As the number of attacks on Muslims grew, Modi mostly remained <a href="http://time.com/5586415/india-election-narendra-modi-2019/">silent</a>. </p>
<p>The consumption of beef in India has long been a divisive issue because many Hindus believe that <a href="https://theconversation.com/hinduism-and-its-complicated-history-with-cows-and-people-who-eat-them-80586">the cow is a sacred animal</a>. <a href="http://ijlpp.com/cow-slaughter-in-india/">Cow slaughter</a> and <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2088866/why-world-needs-sit-and-take-notice-indias-war-meat">consumption of beef</a> have long been banned in 24 out of 29 states across India. </p>
<p>Despite this concession to orthodox Hindu sentiments, India has a constitutional commitment to secularism. Unlike in the West, where secularism calls for a strict separation of church and state, Indian secularism is based on the premise of respect toward all faiths. </p>
<p>However, Modi and the political party he represents are adherents of Hindutva. What exactly is Hindutva and how is it different from the beliefs and practices of Hinduism?</p>
<h2>Colonial roots</h2>
<p>Hindutva is an ideology that states that India is the homeland of the Hindus. According to believers, those who profess other faiths can live in the country only at the sufferance of Hindus. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/faculty/ganguly-sumit.html">scholar of contemporary Indian politics</a>, I find this proposition to be profoundly disturbing and deeply antithetical to the the central tenets of Hinduism. </p>
<p>The roots of this ideology can, in considerable part, be traced to the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7s415">growth of Hindu anxieties</a> in colonial India. In 1906, a Muslim political party – the <a href="http://www.oxfordislamicstudies.com/article/opr/t125/e1646">All-India Muslim League</a> – was created. Later, a charismatic politician, Mohammed Ali Jinnah, became its standard-bearer and subsequently the <a href="http://www.pakistan.gov.pk/Quaid/governor_general.html">first governor-general of the state of Pakistan</a> following the British partition of India in 1947. Partition led to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-indias-partition-82432">division of the former British India</a> into the two independent states of India and Pakistan. </p>
<p>The creation of the All-India Muslim League caused some serious misgivings on the part of some segments of the Hindu population, leading to their political mobilization along religious lines, pitting Hindus against Muslims. In 1921, an organization emerged in northern India called the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/hindu-nationalism-and-indian-politics/2E218CFDC1A1052F511A311C45D5A3D2">Hindu Mahasabha</a>. </p>
<p>It brought together people who opposed the secular outlook of the major political party at the time, the Indian National Congress, led by Mahatma Gandhi and others. The Mahasabha’s ideology <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/hindu-mahasabha-the-waning-fringe-outfit-shouting-to-stay-politically-relevant-5563082/">espoused the education and uplift of Hindus</a> and also the conversion of Muslims to Hinduism.</p>
<p>The ideology has its roots in the ideas of an important but controversial Indian nationalist, <a href="http://www.open.ac.uk/researchprojects/makingbritain/content/vinayak-damodar-savarkar">Vinayak Damodar Savarkar</a>, who was not only ardently opposed to British rule in India, but advocated violence to end colonial domination and argued that India was the sole preserve of Hindus. </p>
<p>His ideas were fundamentally at odds with the principals of the Indian nationalist movement, Mahatma Gandhi and his disciple Jawaharlal Nehru, who would become the first prime minister of a free India. Gandhi, though deeply religious, had advocated Hindu-Muslim amity. Nehru, a staunch secularist, had supported religious pluralism. He died at the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2230807516633617">hands of a fanatic</a>, Nathuram Godse, a member of the Hindu Mahasabha, in 1948. </p>
<h2>Growth of the BJP</h2>
<p>The Hindu nationalists sought to make Hinduism, an ancient religion which has no common holy text, no overarching set of beliefs and no single place of pilgrimage, into a homogeneous, organized faith based upon a set of common religious tenets. </p>
<p>During the early years of the Indian republic, following its independence from British colonial rule in 1947, the ideology of Hindutva and its adherents found little appeal among the Indian electorate. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276476/original/file-20190526-187157-18hpwu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276476/original/file-20190526-187157-18hpwu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276476/original/file-20190526-187157-18hpwu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276476/original/file-20190526-187157-18hpwu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276476/original/file-20190526-187157-18hpwu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276476/original/file-20190526-187157-18hpwu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276476/original/file-20190526-187157-18hpwu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">BJP gained in strength since the 1990s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/India-Elections/a08957f2b0ee482f8622012a6c34c751/39/0">AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, since the 1990s the <a href="https://www.orfonline.org/research/44401-understanding-the-rise-of-the-bharatiya-janata-party/">BJP has gathered strength</a> in both the electoral and social arenas. Electorally, it was in power as the dominant partner in a coalition regime from 1998 to 2004. Later, in 2014, it emerged as a majority party in Parliament. </p>
<p>It has also attracted substantial numbers of followers. In considerable part their disaffection stems from the willingness of secular governments to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-modis-india-shrinking-space-for-muslims/2019/05/12/7e6e47e2-5bb1-11e9-98d4-844088d135f2_story.html">pander to the Muslim minority</a>.</p>
<p>The Indian National Congress, on a number of occasions, especially in the 1980s, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3174402?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">made a series of concessions</a> to orthodox Muslim sentiment in its quest for their votes. Among other matters, a Congress government <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-19566894">banned</a> Salman Rushdie’s “The Satanic Verses,” even before Iran had issued the fatwa against Rushdie. On another occasion, it overturned an Indian Supreme Court judgment that had <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/who-really-influenced-rajiv-gandhi-to-act-against-shah-bano-judgment/87263/">granted alimony to a Muslim woman</a>. Members of the Muslims orthodoxy were outraged with the decision, as they deemed it to be an affront to their religious beliefs.</p>
<p>The BJP deftly dealt with the myriad concessions made to sectarian Muslim demands. They argued that the majority Hindu community was being short-changed and that only the BJP would adequately protect the interests of the majority Hindu population. </p>
<p>These sentiments, it appears, struck a resonant chord with significant segments of the electorate and played a not inconsiderable role in propelling the BJP to victory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly receives funding from the following: The Smith Richardson Foundation, the US Department of State, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.</span></em></p>Modi and the political party he represents are adherents of Hindutva, an ideology. It is fundamentally different from the faith, Hinduism.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations., Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1178022019-05-26T13:52:20Z2019-05-26T13:52:20ZNarendra Modi’s victory speech delivers visions of a Hindu nationalist ascetic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276479/original/file-20190526-20851-17rysyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=509%2C107%2C3176%2C1528&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses party supporters, standing next to his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah at their headquarters in New Delhi, India, May 23, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP/Manish Swarup)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the recently concluded Indian parliamentary elections, the electorate gave a thumping majority to current Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Hindu right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/awaits-india-narendra-modi-sweeping-victory-190525104312697.html">to lead the nation for another five years</a>. In his victory speech at the BJP headquarters, Modi <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/world/asia/india-election-results.html">addressed the nation</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout his speech, <a href="https://www.apnews.com/d551f9335136428ab1abd22ad7cb5b6c">Modi crafted an image of himself as a Hindu ascetic</a> who renounces worldly possessions, not for personal liberation but to serve the nation’s needy — a <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/society/faith/faith-column-jamadagni-speaks-on-the-essence-of-karma-yoga/article19365340.ece"><em>karmayogi</em></a>. This image of the selfless Hindu ascetic devoted to the nation has been carefully <a href="https://www.postcolonial.org/index.php/pct/article/view/446/841">cultivated over decades by the Hindu right.</a></p>
<p>The creation of this figure is partly a response to the British colonial <a href="https://www.forgottenbooks.com/en/books/TheCrownofHinduism_10002254">denigration of Hindu ascetics</a> as <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo25135790.html">wilfully idle, otherworldly, apathetic and apolitical</a>. It is also a response to the secular middle class derision of monks in saffron robes entering politics. </p>
<p>India has seen a remarkable public resurgence of Hindu ascetics in politics since the 1980s, with the ascendance of the Hindu right. Notable political figures include the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, MP Sakshi Maharaj and MP Uma Bharati, among others. </p>
<p>Although not dressed in saffron robes like his compatriots, Modi’s biography speaks to nationalist ascetic virtues: celibacy, renunciation of family and service for the nation. He left his home in his teenage years and <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news/story/narendra-modi-humans-of-bombay-interview-part-2-1427633-2019-01-10">wandered the Himalayas for two years</a>, <a href="https://www.biography.com/political-figure/narendra-modi">joined the militant Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the parent organization of the BJP,</a> and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/narendra-modi-admits-he-has-a-wife-but-says-he-knows-little-about-her-9251870.html%20to%20work%20for%20the%20national%20good">abandoned his wife</a> for the nation. </p>
<p>Symbolically, Modi chose <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Varanasi">Varanasi</a>, one of Hinduism’s holiest cities and the spiritual home for Hindu ascetics, <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/politics/narendra-modi-chose-varanasi-in-2014-lok-sabha-election-in-2019-the-holy-city-returns-the-favour-6689551.html">as the constituency to represent at the close of his election</a>.</p>
<p>Nationalist asceticism is valourized by the Hindu right, but it also holds appeal for a broad section of Hindus. Modi’s victory speech impresses the audience with the popular image of the Hindu ascetic devoted to the nation’s cause.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276442/original/file-20190525-187179-5gp0xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276442/original/file-20190525-187179-5gp0xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276442/original/file-20190525-187179-5gp0xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276442/original/file-20190525-187179-5gp0xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276442/original/file-20190525-187179-5gp0xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276442/original/file-20190525-187179-5gp0xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276442/original/file-20190525-187179-5gp0xq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers celebrate outside BJP headquarters in New Delhi India on May 23, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP/Altaf Qadri)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Performance of ascetic humility</h2>
<p>Amit Shah, national president of the BJP, set the stage for the prime minister’s address with a heart-pumping, chest-thumping victory speech offering data on states, towns and personalities that had suffered unprecedented losses for the Congress party. Rejoicing over the BJP’s continued supremacy in the Hindi heartland in the 2019 elections, Shah was exuberant about the party’s electoral successes in eastern India. </p>
<p>Following these high-pitched, triumphalist accounts of electoral victories, which the audience greeted with thunderous applause, Modi took the podium to address his supporters as the crowd chanted “Modi-Modi.”</p>
<p>What ensued was a spectacular public performance of humility. Reminding the masses of his <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/25/from-chaiwallah-to-chief-minister-modis-eventful-journey/">humble origins</a>, Modi repeatedly applauded the generosity of the voters for filling his <em>fakir’s jholi</em> (ascetic’s bag). In sharp contrast to Shah, he instructed his supporters to move ahead with humility. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276441/original/file-20190525-20851-18uy0er.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276441/original/file-20190525-20851-18uy0er.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276441/original/file-20190525-20851-18uy0er.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276441/original/file-20190525-20851-18uy0er.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276441/original/file-20190525-20851-18uy0er.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276441/original/file-20190525-20851-18uy0er.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276441/original/file-20190525-20851-18uy0er.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Narendra Modi is blessed by his 90-year-old mother, Hiraben, in the western Indian state of Gujarat. Modi, who worked in his father’s tea shop at the local railway station, began his political rise as a teenager after he joined the militant Hindu organization Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ajit Solanki, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Modi made <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC3ooUmAkqg">three promises</a> and asked the people to hold him accountable on these promises for the tenure of his public office. First, he said he would not do anything with ill intent. Second, he vowed not do anything for himself. That is, he would not make any personal gains from his public office. Third, he promised he would dedicate every moment of his time and every cell in his body to serving the country.</p>
<p>Modi’s self-deprecating speech — replete with references to Hindu mythology (god of clouds), Hindu practices (cleansing oneself with a bath in the river Ganga) and the Hindu epic <em>Mahabharata</em> — speaks to a receptive Hindu majority. </p>
<h2>Using Hindu religious texts in politics</h2>
<p>Modi’s three promises consolidate the image of the <em>karmayogi</em> — articulated in one of Hinduism’s primary texts, the <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Bhagavad_Gita/"><em>Bhagavad Gita</em></a> — without having to name it. </p>
<p>The <em>Bhagavad Gita</em> is the Hindu right’s religious text of choice. The book starts at the beginning of an epic war and reveals a battlefield discussion between prince Arjun and his charioteer Lord Krishna. Arjun feels squeamish going to war against his own family. Lord Krishna encourages him to think of himself as a <em>karmayogi</em>: someone who works with detachment without anticipating the fruits of his labour. </p>
<p>In his speech, Modi informed his listeners that he had a busy day. Therefore he did not have the opportunity to look through the poll results and would look later that night. Thus, he put forth himself as a detached and selfless worker for the nation.</p>
<p>As Modi publicly rededicates himself to serve the nation at the beginning of his second five-year political mandate, this coded messaging will appeal to his <a href="https://thewire.in/politics/election-results-2019-narendra-modi-new-india">Hindu sympathizers</a>. Many of them are fed up with corrupt politicians and feel marginalized by privileged liberal elites. A humble, Hindi-speaking prime minister elicits their trust. Others feel encouraged to uphold their religious identity. </p>
<p>Many of these same people believe that secularism is an <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/04/04/fate-of-secularism-in-india-pub-78689">unmanly appeasement of religious minorities, especially Muslims</a>. </p>
<h2>Crafting images of devotion</h2>
<p>A few days before the election results were declared, images of Modi draped in a saffron shawl <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/prime-minister-narendra-modi-offers-prayers-at-kedarnath/article27175547.ece">meditating in a cave</a> emerged. His election victory speech fleshed out this <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-bc-as--india-elections-modi-20190524-story.html">self-representation as an ascetic</a>. Modi presents himself as a Hindu ascetic walking from door to door seeking alms (votes), thankful for the generosity of the masses.</p>
<p>In an ironic twist, the voter becomes the kind benefactor, rather than the prime minister, who can improve the lives of the poor. Such skillful use of imagery also tells the Indian public that while Modi may be the prime minister of India, he continues to be one of them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276478/original/file-20190526-187153-7eewg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276478/original/file-20190526-187153-7eewg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276478/original/file-20190526-187153-7eewg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276478/original/file-20190526-187153-7eewg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276478/original/file-20190526-187153-7eewg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276478/original/file-20190526-187153-7eewg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276478/original/file-20190526-187153-7eewg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves to the crowd during a political campaign road show in Varanasi, India on April 25, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP / Rajesh Kumar Singh])</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/alms">This alms-seeking</a> ascetic narrative invokes Modi’s humble origins. It emphasizes his strong personal virtues of dedication and hard work. This is what allowed him to climb through the ranks of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh to become the leader of the largest democracy in the world. </p>
<p>It’s a reminder to those frustrated with the Congress Party’s dynastic politics that this humble son of the soil, with limited English fluency, has proven his ascendancy over the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48391041">privileged, English-speaking Gandhis</a>. </p>
<p>More so, it offers assurances to his supporters, many of whom speak a variety of vernacular tongues — but especially to his Hindi speakers — that the days of the liberal, English-educated elite are over.</p>
<p>Modi’s carefully crafted, religiously coded public enactment of unabashed patriotic loyalty is a dog whistle that those who support his vision of a Hindu majoritarian “new India” can hear loud and clear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chandrima Chakraborty receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>India’s re-elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a victory speech that presented himself as a selfless and humble ascetic. This vision goes far to promote a Hindu nationalist ‘new’ India.Chandrima Chakraborty, Professor of English and Cultural Studies, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1177692019-05-24T18:32:51Z2019-05-24T18:32:51ZIndia Tomorrow part 7: what Narendra Modi’s landslide victory means for India<p>After the world’s largest ever democratic exercise, Narendra Modi has been re-elected as prime minister of India for another five year term. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured an <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-election-how-narendra-modi-won-with-an-even-bigger-majority-117476">even bigger majority</a> than in 2014. </p>
<p>In this, the final part of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a> series from The Anthill podcast, we analyse the results with a panel of academics to find out what such a large majority – of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/indian-general-elections-2019-latest-updates-190521080547337.html">more than 300 seats</a> – means for India.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b90c?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p>Mujibur Rehman, assistant professor at the Centre for the Study of Social Exclusion and Inclusive Policy at Jamia Milia Islamia University in New Delhi, says the size of the victory has taken many analysts in the media by surprise. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The question is not about winning 300 seats, but the huge margin through which the BJP candidates defeated their nearest rivals … that is a huge, huge surprise.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nikita Sud, associate professor of development studies at the University of Oxford, says the fact that Modi ran an almost presidential campaign, harks back to the slogans of the 1970s, when prime minister Indira Gandhi ran on the slogan, “Indira is India and India is Indira”.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is to be commended on the part of the BJP that we are back to this very, person-centric politics where (in) every constituency people are talking about Modi … In 2014, people were testing him, but now that he’s a known entity, I think this personality-centricness can go both ways … because everything now centres even more on him, especially after this thumping victory. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The opposition Congress Party, suffered a crushing defeat at the polls, winning fewer than 50 seats and its leader Rahul Gandhi <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/rahul-gandhi-loses-amethi-seat-biggest-upset-2019-polls-190523134545989.html">even lost his own parliamentary seat</a> in Amethi, a traditional stronghold of India’s Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and the Congress in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. Rehman said the defeat was “massive” for Gandhi and the Congress party:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It signals that they are almost a non-entity today in the northern India politics, the heartland of Indian politics. Because he has a huge victory in (the southern state of) Kerala, but in the north they are almost a non-entity now.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indrajit Roy, co-host of The Anthill’s India Tomorrow series and lecturer in politics at the University of York, says that while Modi’s victory is an example of populism, it also a victory for what he calls a “politics of passion”. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think if you look at the results, you just look at the huge majorities that the BJP has won, not only at the country level, but in the constituencies that they’ve won … that’s not possible unless you’ve touched people’s hearts.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He stresses how different Modi’s journey to power is from that of US President Donald Trump, or Jair Bolsonaro, the newly elected president of Brazil – though he says there are similarities with Reccip Tayip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Like Erdoğan, Modi very much belongs to the political system. He’s not an outsider. He was a chief minister of a state, he’s a fully fledged member of the party. He was groomed by the RSS [Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh], which is the ideological mentor of the BJP, so he’s very much a part and parcel of the political system. I do think that these elections were of course about Modi, but it was also about the ideas that Modi holds and that the ideas that he expressed, which is something which his party and the RSS have been working on for nearly 90 years – the ideas of India being a Hindu nation. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">Subscribe to The Anthill podcast.</a></em></p>
<p>To find out more about the big issues facing India as Modi settles into his second term as prime minister, check out our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">episode guide</a> for this series. Do get in touch with any questions via podcast@theconversation.com or reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/anthillpod">@anthillpod</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: BJP handout/EPA</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a> via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>News clips:</em></p>
<p><em>India PM Modi wins landslide victory in world’s largest election, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odvN_nuJTzI&t=31s">France 24</a></em></p>
<p><em>Election Results: Total BJP Sweep, India Chooses Modi 2.0, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuYpojVJirM">NDTV</a></em></p>
<p><em>Narendra Modi thanks voters for ‘historic mandate’, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48389130">BBC News</a></em></p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A panel of academic experts assess Narendra Modi's victory in the final episode of our India Tomorrow series.Annabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UKGemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1177102019-05-23T16:36:44Z2019-05-23T16:36:44ZIndian election: Modi win delivered thanks to faith in economic growth pledges<p>India’s electoral colossus has <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-election-how-narendra-modi-won-with-an-even-bigger-majority-117476">re-elected Narendra Modi’s BJP party</a>, following the largest democratic exercise in the world. India has united <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/23/india-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-victory">to put Modi back in office</a>. This is the second time since 1971 that a majority incumbent government has returned to power with majority in India. </p>
<p>Over the past five years, Modi’s government projected an image of working non-stop to advance the cause of those on the fringes of India’s economy. The BJP’s policy initiatives included a controversial demonetisation move <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nusbusinessschool/2018/09/01/indias-demonetization-drive-a-necessary-jolt-towards-a-more-digital-economy/#1ccb37113dc3">to stop corruption</a>, which created bank accounts for 356 million poor people. He also provided cooking gas connections <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=187007">to nearly 60 million households</a> and brought electricity to nearly 16,000 villages, covering more than 40 million households that didn’t have it before, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47499917">making all of India electrified</a>. </p>
<p>Health coverage was extended <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/ayushman-bharat-scheme-averaged-5000-claims-per-day-in-first-100-days/story/306180.html">to the country’s poorest citizens</a> and more than <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/over-9-crore-toilets-constructed-under-swachh-bharat-kovind/articleshow/67773723.cms">90 million toilets were built</a>. Modi introduced <a href="https://www.mudra.org.in/">the MUDRA scheme</a> to give collateral-free micro loans for self-employed entrepreneurs and a unified goods and service tax for the entire country, which <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gst-collection-scales-record-high-of-rs-1-13-lakh-crore-in-april/articleshow/69128518.cms">accelerated tax collections</a>. </p>
<h2>Diverse electorate</h2>
<p>Since Modi was first nominated as a prime ministerial candidate in 2014, a debate over his government fuelling intolerance <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-34943206">against certain groups in Indian society</a> has deflected attention from the good work on the ground. Recently, Time magazine <a href="http://time.com/5586415/india-election-narendra-modi-2019/">called Modi</a> the “divider in chief”. But Modi successfully united the most diverse electorate in the world to come together to vote in his favour and advance his vision of developing the Indian economy. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276180/original/file-20190523-187147-wr7yo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276180/original/file-20190523-187147-wr7yo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276180/original/file-20190523-187147-wr7yo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276180/original/file-20190523-187147-wr7yo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276180/original/file-20190523-187147-wr7yo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1002&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276180/original/file-20190523-187147-wr7yo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1002&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276180/original/file-20190523-187147-wr7yo7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1002&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seemingly not, according to India’s electorate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://time.com/5586415/india-election-narendra-modi-2019/">Time | Illustration by Nigel Buchanan for TIME</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is no small achievement. India’s diversity, the presence of numerous regional parties that command local influence as well as religious and social groups that have preferred candidates and parties and a private media that has an anti-Modi bias make this victory an incredible achievement. </p>
<p>Two weeks before the elections began, the main opposition party – the Indian National Congress – released its manifesto with a promise to give a universal basic income to the <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/the-nyay-scheme-is-a-game-changer/article26822386.ece">poorest 20% of the Indian households</a>. This became the core campaign message of Congress, which it believed to be a game changer. </p>
<p>But the promise to remove poverty from India – one that Congress has kept making since India gained independence, without managing to deliver on it when in power – did not inspire trust in the electorate. The Indian voter watched with disbelief when Modi was accused of corruption by parties (including Congress) which have histories that are riddled <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/infighting-in-congress-corruption-cost-us-dear-rahul-gandhi-1822305">with scandal and corruption issues</a>.</p>
<h2>Development for one and all</h2>
<p>Modi pitched the contest as one between a dynast and an incorruptible deliverer – and the Indian voter believed the track record of Modi over the previous five years, along with his message of “<em>sabka sath and sabka vikas</em>” (development for one and all). And the 2019 campaign was centred around the phrase “<em>mein bhi chowdikar</em>” (I too am a watchman) emphasising his anti-corruption credentials and presenting him as an upholder of justice.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-5-economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-116678">Listen to our podcast episode on India’s economy in our India Tomorrow series.</a></em></p>
<p>India’s opposition parties have to rethink the strategy they have adopted over the last five years. Arguing that Modi is a divisive leader has not cut ice with the Indian voter. In Modi, the country has found a development messiah. </p>
<p>Over the next five years, his government will have to deliver on the long list of campaign promises. These include ensuring that every Indian family has a home of its own by the 75th year of Indian independence in 2022, doubling farmers’ incomes, developing world-class infrastructure and accelerating support to entrepreneurs and start-ups – all the while retaining the focus on inclusive development to accomplish the 75 milestones for India at 75 that the party has put forth in its election <a href="https://www.bjp.org/en/manifesto2019">manifesto</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jagannadha Pawan Tamvada is affiliated with the Centre for India and Global Business, University of Cambridge, and India Global, a think-tank based in US and India.</span></em></p>In Narendra Modi, India has found a development messiah.Jagannadha Pawan Tamvada, Associate Professor in Strategy and Innovation, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1174762019-05-23T16:08:27Z2019-05-23T16:08:27ZIndia election: how Narendra Modi won with an even bigger majority<p>The stunning majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 Indian election is a massive political achievement for its leadership: the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and the party’s president, Amit Shah. Early results from the world’s biggest democratic exercise show the BJP is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48347081">likely to win</a> more than 300 seats in India’s parliament, the Lok Sabha, more than the 282 it won in 2014 and the 272 needed for a majority. </p>
<p>In early 2019, such a result had looked uncertain in the wake of state election <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/modi-bjp-election-defeats-hindi-heartland-rajasthan-chhattisgarh-madhya-pradesh">defeats</a> in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – part of the Hindi heartland that had helped Modi to victory in 2014. Opponents of the BJP dared to think that the Congress Party – the former “Grand Old Party of India” which had been reduced to only 44 seats in 2014 – was sufficiently revitalised to mount a credible challenge in 2019. </p>
<p>As the early months of 2019 dawned, scandals about the allocation of a defence contract as well as rising unemployment figures – and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-india-tomorrow-part-5-podcast-transcript-116688">suppression of these figures</a> – made a bad start to the campaign. The <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/web-exclusive/story/20190204-motn-poll-nda-seat-share-lok-sabha-election-2019-1439262-2019-01-25">Mood of the Nation</a> survey conducted in December 2018 and January 2019 concluded that the National Democratic Alliance, the coalition the BJP heads, would not win a majority in the general elections. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">Read our episode guide for India Tomorrow, a podcast series from The Anthill.</a></em></p>
<h2>Security</h2>
<p>We will have to wait for results from post-election surveys to get detailed analysis of the segments of society that voted for the BJP, but several points are clear about Modi’s victory.</p>
<p>Modi benefited tremendously from the fallout from a suicide attack in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47302467?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cgmkz7g3xn0t/pulwama-attack&link_location=live-reporting-story">Pulwama</a> in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 40 Indian soldiers in February 2019. Although responsibility for the attack was claimed by a Pakistani terrorist group, it was carried out by a local Kashmiri. One reading of this could have been that Modi’s policies in the Kashmir valley, such as the increase <a href="http://time.com/longform/pellet-gun-victims-kashmir/">in the use of pellet guns</a>, <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/IN/DevelopmentsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf">blinding hundreds</a> and killing at least 14, had led to the attack. But Modi swiftly turned it to his advantage. </p>
<p>Not only did he pursue an aggressive course of action with airstrikes against militants on Pakistani territory, he also successfully sold it as a huge success, <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indias-strike-on-balakot-a-very-precise-miss/">despite some evidence</a> that the fighters had missed their target. The national security narrative took centre stage in the 2019 election, something that the opposition parties were unable to counter. </p>
<h2>Opposition failings</h2>
<p>The second factor was the Congress campaign. The party’s leader, Rahul Gandhi, has come a long way since his debut in a national election in 2014. But the Congress campaign failed on two fronts. The first was the messaging: it was a mistake to try and attack Modi on <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/congress-vs-bjp-on-rafale-deal-four-key-questions-answered">allegations of corruption</a> rather than focusing on the economic failures of his first term. Focusing on corruption only served to remind the electorate of the Congress party’s involvement in previous (very large) corruption scandals. </p>
<p>Yet, even had Congress focused solely on the economy, this may not have led to a very different result. The BJP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/12/bjp-landslide-in-uttar-pradesh-a-boost-for-india-prime-minister-narendra-modi">swept the board</a> in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh state elections, held only a few months after Modi’s disastrous demonetisation policy which saw <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/08/india-withdraws-500-1000-rupee-notes-fight-corruption">the withdrawal of 86%</a> of India’s currency. The second failure was the high-handedness with which Congress approached the formation of its own political alliances. The BJP was extremely accommodating of its alliance partners in states such as Bihar and Maharashtra, but Congress did not manage to agree a deal with its potential partners in <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/arvind-kejriwal-rahul-gandhi-congress-aap-alliance-failed-inside-story-1511415-2019-04-27">Delhi</a> and in <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/congress-out-of-sp-bsp-alliance-in-up-but-theres-little-reason-for-bjp-to-cheer">Uttar Pradesh</a>.</p>
<h2>NaMo appeal</h2>
<p>The third factor was the presidential nature of the campaign. Modi successfully portrayed the campaign as Modi v Rahul. Such a framing benefited Modi – a fantastic campaigner. He built on the national security narrative by framing himself as a <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1131539657794183168"><em>Chowkidar</em>, or watchman</a>, who would protect India. This built on his reputation as someone who would make India great – something that played extremely well in the campaign. </p>
<p>Modi’s profile in India is huge – he takes personal credit for all initiatives, and his picture appears multiple times in the same editions of the daily newspapers when government initiatives are flagged.</p>
<p>But curiously, for such an effective campaigner, he held his first <a href="https://thewire.in/media/narendra-modi-press-conference">press conference</a> as prime minister in the final weeks of the 2019 campaign. And even then it was dominated by Shah – and Modi didn’t <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-the-narendra-modi-press-conference-that-really-wasnt/330509">answer a single question</a>.</p>
<p>The BJP has had extraordinary control of the political narrative during this election, aided by its extremely <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/india-election-spending-bjp-congress/modis-war-chest-leaves-india-election-rivals-in-the-dust-idUSKCN1S7390">large war chest</a> which has helped it penetrate even deeper into traditional and social media. While only a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9fe88fba-6c0d-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84">quarter of Indians</a> use WhatsApp – still 300m people – the creation of promotional material <a href="https://qz.com/india/1553765/bjps-whatsapp-ops-is-what-cambridge-analytica-can-only-dream-of/">specifically targeted</a> at different segments of society has played a huge role in advancing a particular political narrative. </p>
<p>In addition, the Election Commission has been criticised <a href="https://scroll.in/article/924268/the-silent-army-10-reasons-why-public-trust-in-the-election-commission-stands-eroded">for clearing</a> BJP leaders of many alleged election code violations, and only <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/news/election-commission-bans-screening-of-biopic-on-pm-modi-during-election-period/articleshow/68810315.cms">belatedly banning</a> the showing of a biopic about Modi on the eve of the elections. It also allowed the BJP’s TV channel, NaMo TV, to run without challenge <a href="https://thewire.in/media/as-polls-draw-to-a-close-namo-tv-slips-off-air">throughout the campaign</a>. It has now gone off air. </p>
<h2>Concerns for minorities</h2>
<p>The final point to make relates to the opinions of voters. The BJP ran a very <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/modi-party-chief-raises-anti-muslim-rhetoric-as-polls-kick-off">polarising campaign</a>. In 2014, 51% of those who responded to India’s <a href="https://www.lokniti.org/media/PDF-upload/1536130357_23397100_download_report.pdf">National Election Studies</a> said they believed that democracy meant that the will of the majority community should prevail – a steep rise from 2009. This demonstrates a move towards the right and an acceptance of <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">Hindu majoritarianism</a> in Indian politics – a position that questions whether religious minorities, particularly Muslims, should have special rights within India. This trend of Hindu majoritarianism is higher among the young – a growing demographic within India – who have grown up in an era in which the BJP has been a national player. </p>
<p>This does not bode well for religious minorities in the world’s largest democracy, 20% of whom are non-Hindu. Although Modi <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1131488026247323648">tweeted</a> after the results that “together we will build a strong and inclusive India”, the attacks on Muslims, both <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/what-is-the-citizenship-amendment-bill-2016/article23999348.ece">political</a> and <a href="https://www.indiaspend.com/2017-deadliest-year-for-cow-related-hate-crime-since-2010-86-of-those-killed-muslim-12662/">actual</a> during his first term cast doubt over the second part of this promise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117476/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharine Adeney has received funding from the Leverhulme Trust and the Economic and Social Research Council for her work on India in the past.</span></em></p>The Bharatiya Janata Party of Narendra Modi has claimed victory in the world’s biggest democratic exercise.Katharine Adeney, Professor of Politics and Director of the Asia Research Institute, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1161602019-05-20T19:47:33Z2019-05-20T19:47:33ZTampering with history: how India’s ruling party is erasing the Muslim heritage of the nation’s cities<p>For centuries many millions of Hindus have gathered at the confluence of the rivers Ganges, Yamuna and Sarswati in northern India for the festival of <em>Kumbh Mela</em>. Their pilgrimage, which ends with a sacred bath in the Ganges, takes them through the historic city of Allahabad. </p>
<p>Allahabad is no longer on the map of India. In October 2018, officials of the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/prayagraj-divides-allahabad/article25274402.ece">changed its name to Prayagraj</a>. Allahabad was founded by the Mughals, Muslim rulers from Central Asia who governed India from the 16th to the 19th centuries. This name change emphasises the primacy of the Hindu gathering over the city’s Mughal heritage.</p>
<p>This renaming is part <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46191239">of a growing trend</a> in the lead-up to India’s current general election, which is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48328259">expected to return the BJP government</a>. To appeal to its voter base of Hindu nationalists, the BJP is attempting to erase India’s Mughal legacy both from the landscape and from the <a href="https://thewire.in/history/maharashtra-education-board-removes-traces-mughals-history-textbooks">history books</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indias-elections-will-be-the-largest-in-world-history-114968">India's elections will be the largest in world history</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>India and the Mughals</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273245/original/file-20190508-183089-ft04hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273245/original/file-20190508-183089-ft04hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273245/original/file-20190508-183089-ft04hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273245/original/file-20190508-183089-ft04hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273245/original/file-20190508-183089-ft04hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273245/original/file-20190508-183089-ft04hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273245/original/file-20190508-183089-ft04hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emperor Akbar the Great.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Emperor_Akbar_the_Great.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Mughals had a more than 300-year presence on the subcontinent and exerted a significant influence on Indian art, architecture, language and cuisine.</p>
<p>Allahabad’s Mughal history begins with the Emperor Akbar (1542-1605). Akbar was struck by the natural setting and serenity of Prayag and commissioned the old settlements on either side of the Ganges and their adjoining villages to erect a new city. He named it <em>Illahabas</em>, adding the Hindustani word <em>basa</em> (home or abode) to <em>ilahi</em>, the Arabic word for “divine”. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273756/original/file-20190510-183106-f0boqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273756/original/file-20190510-183106-f0boqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273756/original/file-20190510-183106-f0boqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273756/original/file-20190510-183106-f0boqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273756/original/file-20190510-183106-f0boqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273756/original/file-20190510-183106-f0boqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273756/original/file-20190510-183106-f0boqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Allahabad Fort on the banks of the Yamuna river.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/allahabad-india-14-january-2019-view-1318061237?src=bKj5vBNfGPhNVG8miNzNOw-1-3">Arun Sambhu Mishra/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Akbar secured the city with an imposing fort overlooking the sacred waterway and put an end to the long-established practice of ritual suicide by penitent Hindus. They would typically jump into a well or into the torrents of the river from a giant and auspicious banyan tree. The tree was now placed inside the fort in a chamber that became known as the Patalpuri Temple, where Hindu pilgrims continued to offer their devotions.</p>
<p>During the reign of Akbar’s grandson, Shah Jahan, best known for building the Taj Mahal, the city became popularly known as Allahabad.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273241/original/file-20190508-183086-17sbro9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273241/original/file-20190508-183086-17sbro9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273241/original/file-20190508-183086-17sbro9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273241/original/file-20190508-183086-17sbro9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273241/original/file-20190508-183086-17sbro9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273241/original/file-20190508-183086-17sbro9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273241/original/file-20190508-183086-17sbro9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Taj Mahal is the most iconic example of Mughal architecture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/taj-mahal-india-1331431931?src=gVL5w4ywwx4x5WsryinHBQ-1-6">JTang/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The rise of Hindu nationalism</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273757/original/file-20190510-183109-a94711.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273757/original/file-20190510-183109-a94711.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273757/original/file-20190510-183109-a94711.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273757/original/file-20190510-183109-a94711.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273757/original/file-20190510-183109-a94711.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273757/original/file-20190510-183109-a94711.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273757/original/file-20190510-183109-a94711.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yogi Adityanath.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=yogi+adityanath&title=Special%3ASearch&go=Go&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:The_Uttar_Pradesh_Chief_Minister,_Shri_Yogi_Adityanath_meeting_the_President,_Shri_Ram_Nath_Kovind,_at_Rashtrapati_Bhavan,_in_New_Delhi_on_February_10,_2018.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The campaign to rename Allahabad was led by the Hindu priest and activist Yogi Adityanath, who rose to fame as the founder of a militant Hindu youth-wing group. Adityanath is now chief minister of Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s most populous northern state. </p>
<p>As one of the most outspoken members of the ruling party, he has repeatedly <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/taj-mahal-india-hindu-nationalism/546374/">indulged in vitriol against religious minorities, especially Muslims</a>. According to Adityanath, the identity, history and traditions of India must be salvaged from the taint of alien, Muslim invaders. </p>
<p>The rechristening of Allahabad reflects a strident demand of Hindu militants at the helm of Indian politics <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/renaming-india-saffronisation-public-spaces-181012113039066.html">to reclaim towns, streets, airports and railway stations which are seen as reminders of India’s “Muslim” past</a>. These calls have grown louder and more insistent during Narendra Modi’s tenure as prime minister and leader of the BJP.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-giant-statues-of-hindu-gods-and-leaders-are-making-muslims-in-india-nervous-112818">Why giant statues of Hindu gods and leaders are making Muslims in India nervous</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rewriting history</h2>
<p>Another notable case is the recent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44721655">renaming of the British-era railway junction of Mughalsarai</a>. The word <em>sarai</em> denotes a rest house or inn. Mughalsarai, less than 20km from the sacred Indian city of Varanasi, is one of the busiest railway yards in the country. It is located along the historic Grand Trunk Road, one of the oldest roads in Asia, which connects Northern India to Central Asia. </p>
<p>The Indian government’s nod to the proposal to rename the station came, again, from Adityanath who wanted to claim it in the name of <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/2016/09/27/who-was-deen-dayal-upadhyay-and-why-his-thinking-will-now-be-fro_a_21480007/">Deendayal Upadhyaya</a> (1916 –1968). Upadhyaya, a leader of the Jan Sangh Party, was an early ideologue of Rashtrya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the parent organisation of the BJP.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274551/original/file-20190515-60560-v9o07p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274551/original/file-20190515-60560-v9o07p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274551/original/file-20190515-60560-v9o07p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274551/original/file-20190515-60560-v9o07p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274551/original/file-20190515-60560-v9o07p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274551/original/file-20190515-60560-v9o07p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274551/original/file-20190515-60560-v9o07p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Narendra Modi pays tribute to the memory of Deendayal Upadhyaya.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Deendayal_Upadhyaya#/media/File:Prime_Minister_Narendra_Modi_pays_tributes_to_Deendayal_Upadhyaya.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The move led to an uproar in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament. Opponents of this proposal argued that Upadhyaya was not a “freedom fighter” or a truly national figure. Other critics see this move to commemorate an early proponent of right-wing Hindu nationalism as the <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/congress-slams-ram-nath-kovind-for-equating-deen-dayal-with-gandhi-4767230/">BJP’s attempt to elevate its leaders to national prominence</a>.</p>
<p>In the popular imagination, the early leaders of the Congress Party (the BJP’s main opposition) are still seen as the key architects of India’s freedom struggle. The memory of Congress leaders such as Mahatma Gandhi and Jawarhalal Nehru is honoured throughout India in the form of public monuments and landmarks. The BJP’s move to elevate Upadhyaya is an attempt to insert one of the founders of its political creed into the public memory of India’s independence struggle. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">India Tomorrow part 2: the politics of Hindu nationalism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>From decolonisation to erasure</h2>
<p>What we are witnessing is not simply a facile attempt by a majoritarian government to strip facets of the popular memory of the northern Indian plains and its shared, historical landscape. It is also the extension of a patriotic animus once directed at the historic markers of the British colonial era that found recompense and solace in changing place names such as Bombay to Mumbai and Madras to Chennai. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274554/original/file-20190515-60570-12655c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274554/original/file-20190515-60570-12655c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274554/original/file-20190515-60570-12655c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274554/original/file-20190515-60570-12655c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274554/original/file-20190515-60570-12655c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274554/original/file-20190515-60570-12655c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274554/original/file-20190515-60570-12655c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Decolonising Mumbai. In 1996, the Victoria Terminus in Mumbai was renamed Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus after a local warrior king.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/chatrapati-shivaji-terminus-earlier-known-victoria-424513195?src=L9Jl_Et84T1_wIkz7LCNCg-1-7">Mazur Travel/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The new dispensation targeting places like Allahabad and Mughalserai sends clear signals to multitudes of the Indian nation that, much like the British, the Mughals who shaped more than 300 years of Indian history were also outsiders and should not feature in the story of India’s one true national heritage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116160/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sudipta Sen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>India has always been a nation of multiple faiths but the BJP government, which is favoured to be returned this week as winner of the general election, is eroding the country’s Muslim heritage.Sudipta Sen, Professor of History, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1170242019-05-14T12:38:51Z2019-05-14T12:38:51ZIndia Tomorrow part 6: what young Indians want<p>Like many young people around the world, young Indians have big dreams for their future. But for a lot of people in India in their 20s and 30s, there is a large gap between their aspirations and the jobs and opportunities available to them. </p>
<p>In part six of <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a>, a series from <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">The Anthill podcast</a>, we’ll examine the concerns and demands of these young Indian voters. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b90d?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p>One in eight people in the world is an Indian under the age of 30. It’s an astonishing statistic – and the reason, according to Craig Jeffrey, why India’s young people are such an important demographic for the future of Asia and the world. </p>
<p>In this episode of India Tomorrow, we feature an interview that Jeffrey, the director of the Australia India Institute and professor of development geography at the University of Melbourne, did with Bageshri Savyasachi, an editorial intern at The Conversation Australia, for their podcast <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/trust-me-podcast">Trust Me I’m An Expert</a>. </p>
<p>Jeffrey says that jobs, education and healthcare will be driving the decisions of India’s young people as they vote in the 2019 elections.</p>
<p>In this episode, we also hear some examples of what young Indians want their future to look like. Sneha Krishnan, assistant professor in human geography at the University of Oxford, explains that many of the young women going through college who she’s interviewed wanted a “sophisticated” life. She said this largely referred to a desire to: “Being able to live a life where they felt kind of able to make their own choices.”</p>
<p>And we hear from Suryakant Waghmore, associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay, about the organisations working to turn caste into community for young people moving into large urban environments. Waghmore also explains what he found during a research project on inter-caste marriage which analysed the preferences of 2,000 profiles on marriage dating websites. </p>
<p>You can listen to a longer version of Savyasachi’s interview with Jeffrey on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-election-2019-millions-of-indian-youth-are-underemployed-and-going-to-the-polls-113563">May 6 edition of Trust Me I’m An Expert</a>, a podcast from The Conversation Australia, available wherever you get your podcasts from.</p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-young-indians-want-india-tomorrow-part-6-podcast-transcript-117045">transcript of this episode here</a>, and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</p>
<p>This is the last episode of our India Tomorrow series before the results of the 2019 election results are due to be announced on May 23. Stay tuned for our special results episode in which a panel of academic experts will discuss the results. Do get in touch with any questions for the panel via podcast@theconversation.com or reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/anthillpod">@anthillpod</a>. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">Subscribe to our Anthill podcast newsletter to hear about new episodes as soon as they drop.</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill, and to Sunanda Creagh at The Conversation Australia for her production help.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: Sanjeev Gupta/EPA.</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a> all via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p>Part six of The Anthill podcast's India Tomorrow series focuses on the concerns of young Indians.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkAnnabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1170452019-05-14T12:38:48Z2019-05-14T12:38:48ZWhat young Indians want: India Tomorrow part 6 podcast transcript<p><em>This is a transcript of part six of The Anthill podcast series, India Tomorrow. <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-6-what-young-indians-want-117024">Click here to listen to the full episode</a> and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b90d?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/craig-jeffrey-114246">Craig Jeffrey</a>:</strong> One in eight people in the world is an Indian under the age of 30. It’s worth repeating that. One in eight people in the world is an Indian young person. Someone under the age of 30. Now that’s an extraordinary statistic. And it gives a sense of the importance of that demographic for the future of Asia and of the world. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> This is Craig Jeffrey, director of the Australia India Institute and a professor of geography at the University of Melbourne. He’s done decades of research on young Indians and social change. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Now, unlike the same generation 25 years ago, that set of young people are very well aware of events in other parts of the world, which are streamed to them via their mobile phones or on the internet. They are increasingly in secondary school, including young women. And in school they’re learning to obviously dream big. And the government is also encouraging those young people to see themselves as part of a new India, that’s modern, in which people are based often in urban areas doing kind of what historically has been described as middle class work, service work.</p>
<p>And where you’ve got that situation of both demographic growth and a rapid revolution of rising aspirations, you need an outlet for young people so that they feel, as they move into their 20s and 30s, that they’re achieving the goals that they desire. And that’s not happening. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> From The Conversation’s Anthill podcast, this is India Tomorrow. I’m Annabel Bligh from The Conversation. And I’m joined by my co-host, Indrajit Roy, lecturer in politics from the University of York. Hi Indrajit. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Hello Annabel. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> In this, the sixth part of our podcast series India Tomorrow, we’re going to be focusing on young Indians, the concerns they face as they go about their lives and the key issues they’re likely to be thinking about as they head to the polls in 2019. We’ll also be hearing about their views on caste and marriage – and about their aspirations for the future. </p>
<p>For this episode, we’ve teamed up with our colleagues at <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-election-2019-millions-of-indian-youth-are-underemployed-and-going-to-the-polls-113563">Trust Me I’m An Expert</a>, a podcast from The Conversation Australia. It was Bageshri Savyasachi, a multimedia intern at The Conversation, who spoke to Craig Jeffrey about his research. You can actually hear a longer version of their conversation on the Trust Me I’m an Expert podcast, available wherever you get your podcasts from. </p>
<p>So, there will be an estimated 84m first time voters going to the polls in 2019. Here’s Bageshri. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> What do you think India’s young voters want? What are the overarching political imperatives and demands of India’s huge generation Z? </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> I think it’s a great question. Those numbers are astonishing aren’t they? And it’s very difficult I think for pundits to predict what precisely they’ll do in terms of the elections. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Craig says there are three things which are crucial in the minds of these voters. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> One is jobs. So young people across India and particularly in parts of India where the economy’s been less successful at creating jobs. So some of the northern states, for example, are going to be really concerned with the capacity of the government to provide better employment opportunities.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> The second is education. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> They’ll be looking to see which political parties and politicians are promising to improve higher education, tertiary education more generally, the skills environment, and school education. Because for a lot of young people who aren’t part of the elite in India there is a mismatch often between the educational opportunities they obtain in school or university and then the employment market and the demands of key private sector firms. </p>
<p>A third area that’s perhaps less obvious is the issue of healthcare and public health. And my own observations as an anthropologist and human geographer working in mainly Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the past 25 years on social change is that young people are often demanding access to health services that are poorly provisioned in provincial India, particularly in relation to issues like sexual health, mental health, reproductive health. And that’s an area where I think young people are looking to government for more action. And I think that will also be in young people’s minds in the lead up to the elections. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> As we heard about <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-5-economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-116678">in the last episode of this series</a>, jobs and unemployment are a key election issue. And particularly so for young people. In rural India, 17% of men and 14% of women under 30 are looking for jobs. And, in urban India it’s 19% for men and 27% for women, according to data leaked <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47068223">from the official statistics office</a>. And there is also a big problem of underemployment, where young people are doing jobs for which they’re overqualified. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> What jobs are available to young people? And do they want to do those jobs?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well I think one of the stories of Indian economic growth since 1990 is its failure to create large numbers of what might be regarded as white collar, or middle class jobs for the increasing numbers of young people who are getting high school matriculation certificates or degrees in India. Now India’s not especially unusual in that regard, particularly since the global financial crisis in the late 2000s economies around the world often found it difficult to create secure employment opportunities for people. Of course automation, mechanisation is changing the nature of work throughout the world. So this isn’t specific to India. But India is a almost, a very condensed or intense example of the failure of economic growth to create lots of good quality jobs. That long predates 2014 and the coming to power of the BJP. It’s a structural feature of the Indian economy since 1990 and especially since the mid-2000s period. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> But what does this mean for the jobs that are available for young people? </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> In many cases what we’re seeing in India is that people are having to realign their expectations of what work they’re going to do in that five or ten year period after they graduate from high school or university. This is not new. Ronald Dore wrote in his book <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED153584">The Diploma Disease</a> in 1970 that India was the country of the BA bus conductor. So that sense of having to downplay your expectations in light of circumstances is quite old in India. But now I would argue that a lot of people with bachelor’s degrees in India would be very keen to have a job on a state roadway as a bus conductor, so intense and cutthroat has the employment market become.</p>
<p>So you’re seeing people with master’s degrees, with PhDs having to do very small scale, entrepreneurial business work. You’re seeing them especially having to go back into agriculture, not as large scale agricultural innovators making large amounts of money and employing other people, but rather working on quite small plots of land in an environment where they didn’t imagine that they would go back into farming.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So young Indians in their 20s and 30s are struggling to achieve the goals they’ve set themselves. But just how big a problem is that for the country? </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well obviously for the young people concerned it’s a big problem and for their families. And young people are not passive in that situation. They actively and creatively seek ways to make do. That may be entering into fallback work in agriculture. It may be finding jobs that perhaps that they weren’t aspiring to originally, but which provide a means for establishing a family and getting by, in areas like sales and marketing.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> But, Craig says, it also means there is a lot of disappointment among young people who are living their lives in limbo – something he wrote about back in 2010 in a book called <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=17650">Timepass</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> What’s surprising perhaps is that that sense of social suffering hasn’t led to more unrest in India. And I think there are several reasons for that. I think partly because India is a democracy, people have an outlet for frustration, through the political system, through voting, through demonstrating on the streets. I think the second reason why there haven’t been more political mobilisation is that people often perceive this as a personal failure rather than a failure of government or of society, or as a structural failure, as social scientists would put. They see it as, “well I didn’t try hard enough” or “I wasn’t successful enough in that examination”. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> He says that quite often this failure is personalised, people blame themselves rather than the structural problems with India’s economy or its institutions. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> There’s a whole history of commentators on India talking about the country as being poised to sort of fall into unrest. I’m not going to do that. I think India, it holds together. And as I said people, young people are actively finding ways to make do. But I do think it’s a major social issue at the moment – the lack of capacity for young people to realise their aspirations. It should be and will remain an absolutely critical issue for government in India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So what do young Indians, going through college, want their future to look like?</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sneha-krishnan-431019">Sneha Krishnan</a>:</strong> By and large what they want to do is find a way to live a life that feels to them, I would say “dignified”. And I think how they would put it is “sophisticated”.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> This is Sneha Krishnan, an associate professor in geography at the University of Oxford. You may remember her from <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-4-women-gender-and-love-116115">part four of this series on women</a>, where we heard about the fascinating research she’s done with young Indian women, many of whom live in student hostels or dorms under strict curfews. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Sneha’s research is ethnographic, meaning her work focuses on particular examples or case studies. She pointed to one from her research that illustrated young people mean by a sophisticated life. </p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> So there was one young woman who emphatically told me she didn’t want a job. Right. She was going to college. She was studying something like computer programming which you know is applicable across a range of industries and so on. So she could easily find herself some kind of job in the future. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> But, Sneha says this young woman didn’t really want to work. </p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> She had a boyfriend who had really wanted to study art and she threw a fit. And so he ended up in an engineering college because she was really upset at the idea that she might end up with a poor artist. And she did not fancy herself living like that. Right. So she was very emphatic that what she wanted was a husband with a well-paying job. She wanted them to be able to own a three bedroom house that she and her husband would have a room, the children they had would have a room and there would be a third room in which her parents or his parents could stay when they came to visit. And the reason she had this idea was that she had grown up herself in a one bedroom house and had shared a bedroom with her parents her whole life. And any visiting relatives ended up in the same room.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> She didn’t want that to be her future. She wanted something different. </p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> So sophistication is a word that I think meant different things to different people. But, by and large, I think what it referred to was being able to live a life where they felt kind of able to make their own choices. Whether it was choices like not working and having a highly paid engineer for a husband. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> I also asked Sneha whether she felt young people in India were actually becoming more liberal in their views – by which I meant more progressive rather than more economically liberal.</p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> So I want to cautiously say that maybe young people are getting, as you said in the English language colloquial sense of it, more liberal. And the reason I say that is because when I left field work when I initially did it in 2013, right, before the elections happened, I was seriously disappointed during that time and I wasn’t surprised at all with the BJP victory.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Sneha points to the national debates going on at the time about rape, which took place after the high-profile gang rape and fatal assault of a 23-year-old woman, Jyoti Singh in Delhi in 2012. This helped foster a conservative narrative which emphasised the need to protect women.</p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> A lot of upper caste, middle class young women seemed to subscribe to that sort of view and it left me feeling sort of quite negative at that point.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> While Sneha says she hasn’t done any more direct fieldwork since then, she believes there has been a shift in thinking.</p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> From the sort of smaller interactions I’ve had, that doesn’t seem to be the case this time. In that there are a lot of reasons for young people to be very disappointed with this government. One of them was demonetisation. What a fiasco.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> We heard about Modi’s demonetisation policy <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-5-economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-116678">in our last episode</a>, in which the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes were scrapped overnight in an effort to combat corruption. Sneha says it was really inconvenient for young people. </p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> A lot of young people are incredibly busy people trying to sort of make careers in a bad economy. And they just don’t have the kind of time that that moment required for them to stand in queues and still not get the money they needed. To be running around and helping you know elderly relatives stand in queues and still not get the money they needed.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> She says that the growing number of attacks in India on ex-untouchables or Dalits, and Muslims in recent years, which we heard about earlier in this series, hasn’t created a backlash against far-right Hindu nationalism. But it has given some young people pause for thought. </p>
<p><strong>Sneha Krishnan:</strong> I do think that the sort of enormous scale at which that’s happened in the last few years has kind of gotten through to people, in that I am sensing a certain sort of exhaustion with the way things are. And you know, again, urban middle class young people really like their personal rights. Right? And there’s a lot of talk about, you know, if I can’t marry a Muslim without people hounding me. If I can’t make out with the Dalit boy on the beach without someone hounding me. Do you know what I’m saying? So I think there’s a lot of anxiety that their rights to a certain sort of global lifestyle where they make choices, which are unfettered, is somehow under threat.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Bageshri also asked Craig Jeffrey for his thoughts on this issue. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> Do you think there is a growing shift towards illiberalism among India’s youth?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> I think that’s a really interesting question. First one has to think about well what is liberalism. And if we define that relatively narrowly in terms of a commitment to formal equality and individual freedoms, then I think there’s evidence both ways. There’s evidence of young people contesting those visions of formal equality and individual freedom. For example through their views on on areas like sexuality. So there was a recent <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/2017/04/04/young-india-is-conservative-opposed-to-homosexuality-likes-to_a_22025362/?guccounter=1">Centre of the Study of Developing Societies survey</a> that showed that the majority of young Indians didn’t approve of homosexuality. So there’s some evidence there of a certain kind of inverted commas “illiberalism”. </p>
<p>There’s evidence of young people’s involvement in societies or organisations that are policing people’s right to eat certain foods – again which would suggest the rise of a certain form of illiberalism. But there’s also of course a great deal of evidence the other way that young people are very active in nongovernmental organisations that are seeking to protect people’s formal equality, protect people’s freedoms. The number of youth NGOs in India is growing very very quickly.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Craig says there is also an interesting debate going on about the relationship between the individual and liberalism in India. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> An argument that’s mean made by several people is that actually liberalism in India is organised around a sense of group rights, rather than around individual rights. So it’s perfectly possible to be part of a caste organisation or religious organisation that’s about equality and freedom, but nevertheless is articulating those notions of equality and freedom through reference to caste and religion. So that would be an argument that I think lots of Hindu nationalists would make, is that even though Hindus are the majority and even though they’re making an argument in Hindu terms, it’s an argument about tolerance and about liberalism, rather than about violence or exclusion or limiting people’s freedoms.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> We asked Suryakant Waghmore, associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, to help explain more about the caste organisations that Craig mentions here. You may remember Suryakant from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">second episode on Hindu nationalism</a>. His research looks at the way different types of caste associations work in different cities, particularly Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Suryakant explains why caste associations for so-called higher castes began. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/suryakant-waghmore-719872">Suryakant Waghmore</a>:</strong> The caste associations of the pure and privileged groups, you know, when most of these came up during the colonial rule, with cities becoming important hub of economy, of society, of politics. And these castes associations kind of negotiated this urban space for several of these rural inhabitants from the privileged caste to come to city and negotiate urbanism; especially gain education and you know become mobile so that they could kind of mimic the Western way of life. But, this was rooted in caste.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Today, Suryakant says, associations for higher castes, such as those for Brahmins, remain important, but for different reasons.</p>
<p><strong>Suryakant Waghmore:</strong> In fact quite a few of these castes associations are also finding it difficult to attract youth in these associations. And most of the volunteers who kind of work in these associations are about 50 and are trying to attract the youth to kind of root them again in caste as their primary identity. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> He tells us they have an anxiety of people “losing their caste”. And in cities like Mumbai, which are large, cosmopolitan, urban environments, these associations are trying to turn caste into community. </p>
<p><strong>Suryakant Waghmore:</strong> And the most important fear for these castes associations and these volunteers is that the female members of the caste marrying outside the caste or falling in love outside the caste.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Only around 7% or 8% of marriages are considered inter-caste marriages, according to Suryakant. In another research project on inter-caste marriage, he studied 2,000 profiles on marriage dating websites to look in more detail at how ideas of caste and marriage interact. </p>
<p><strong>Suryakant Waghmore:</strong> So what a typical profile, you know, would have your caste. Then your income, then your skin colour and then your preference about the person who you’re going to marry. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> By that he means stating your caste preference. In the past, he says some of these dating profiles would state that caste was no issue, except for two important exceptions: the ex-untouchables or Dalits, and people from scheduled tribes, known as Adivasis. Now, Suryakant has found, some people say caste doesn’t matter at all. </p>
<p><strong>Suryakant Waghmore:</strong> Now, what is interesting is that, when they say caste does not matter, it’s just a way of saying that they would not necessarily marry outside caste. But there are some who really mean caste does not matter. What they do is that they list out castes they would be open to marry into.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Suryakant looked at who was listing what. </p>
<p><strong>Suryakant Waghmore:</strong> Now what we saw in this preference was that, that the middle castes want to marry in the middle range and upwards. The upper castes would want to marry upper range and a little to the middle order.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So even if the ex-untouchables are not specifically mentioned or barred, Suryakant says there is still an unwritten inclination to avoid them. </p>
<p><strong>Suryakant Waghmore:</strong> Whoever is kind of trying to move beyond caste, even then there is this line of purity and pollution and those castes that are considered kind of permanently polluted, that would be the ex-untouchable caste, are not really preferred to be married. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> But he stresses that this also depends on which cities people live in. </p>
<p><strong>Suryakant Waghmore:</strong> Quite a few youngsters tend to think beyond caste, you know, especially in Mumbai. This is not the case in Ahmedabad, you know, there is a general kind of belief that one can not marry the ex-untouchable castes and so forth. But in Mumbai what we see is that there’s definitely adventure in the space of friendship and love. So people transgress these boundaries and do not necessary think so much about the caste. In Ahmedabad, also, it’s there too at some extent, but it is lesser.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So Indrajit, I found this idea of a post-caste society really interesting, especially in light of everything we’ve been talking about on this series. It seems that some parts of Indian society may feel threatened by a future in which caste no longer mattered, whereas others think it’s a long overdue idea? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> That’s quite right. I think people who have been privileged by the caste hierarchy would obviously see its disappearance as a threat. But for those who’ve been oppressed under the caste system, or those who’ve found themselves being marginalised or stigmatised by it, would certainly want caste to disappear. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So is this particularly pertinent with Modi being up for re-election? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Oh I think so. Remember a number of the people who voted for Modi actually wanted him in power because they thought he would preserve Hinduism, preserve the caste hierarchies that came with it. Others saw him as – because he was a low-caste person himself, or at least he claimed to be from one of the lower castes – they thought him being at the top position of the country would actually challenge the caste hierarchy and contribute to its dissolution. So in a way you have both groups, those who believe that caste should not matter any more, as well as those who believe that caste is disappearing too fast and it should be preserved. Both groups have ironically vested a lot in Modi and his up for re-election actually shows the contests between these two groups. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So whatever future they want for themselves, it’s clear that young Indians are a political force to be reckoned with. And Indian students have found themselves at the forefront of national politics in recent years, with a couple of high profile controversies over the way some student protesters have been treated. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> The Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, or ABVP, a student youth organisation associated with the Hindu nationalist RSS that we heard about in <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">episode two</a>, has become an ever more powerful political force on some campuses. But all of India’s political parties have strong youth wings, which are key to their electoral efforts. </p>
<p>Back in 2014, Modi’s BJP was successful at winning the support of young people. According to the National Elections Survey – that’s a survey done with people as soon as they’ve left the booth, after casting their vote – 44% of upper-class 18 to 22-year-old first time voters preferred the BJP. This compared to 40% of middle-class voters from the same age group, 35% for lower-class voters and 24% for the poor. But the support varied widely by state – from 65% in Madhyar Pradesh, to 32% in Maharasthra. Bageshri asked Craig Jeffrey whether this is still the case going into 2019. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> Is young people support for Modi on the wane? My impression based on the conversations I have with my friends and what I read is that Modi doesn’t have a lot of support among the youth. A lot of young people supported him when he was first running for prime minister, but now a lot of young people are feeling disappointed with how he has handled Hindu nationalists and violence. What do you think?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> I should do that classic academic thing of saying that I’m not an expert on contemporary views of young people in India. Where I’ve done …</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Craig explains that it’s been some time since he did the bulk of his research, and most recently it’s been focused on a village in a remote part of Uttarakhand in northern India. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> … I try to pick up on the streets a sense of the mood but in that regard I’m an armchair or amateur interpreter of young people’s political views at the moment. And with those caveats in mind, my sense is that young people may not support Modi as much as they did five years ago, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t vote for him.</p>
<p>So one needs to maybe distinguish between support and how people will actually behave in the ballot booth. I think lots of people that I speak to recognise that given the high pitch to which Modi raised people’s aspirations in 2014 there was always going to be a sense of disappointment. That skilling hundreds of millions of people quickly was going to be a very tough ask and that the vision of new India while attractive in certain respects is not borne out in social reality for those outside of the elite and particularly in provincial parts of India, in small town and rural India. So people see on the social and economic side a kind of mismatch between promise and actuality. And I think that’s undermined a certain enthusiasm for the ruling BJP government.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> There are only a few more weeks now to find out what does happen. The final round of voting in the 2019 elections is on May the 19th, with the results announced a few days later on the 23rd. We’ll be taking a pause in this series until then, when we’ll be back with a panel discussing the election results, and answering any questions you might have. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Until then, thanks very much to everyone who’s been in touch so far about our series. And do keep those questions coming. You can get in touch via email on podcast@theconversation.com or on twitter @anthillpod.</p>
<p>You can read more of The Conversation’s coverage of India <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/indian-elections-2019-68064">by academics around the world on theconversation.com</a> or follow us on social media. And you can also find a transcript of this episode, and other episodes in this series, on The Conversation.com. </p>
<p>Don’t forget you can hear a longer version of Bageshri’s interview with Craig Jeffrey on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-election-2019-millions-of-indian-youth-are-underemployed-and-going-to-the-polls-113563">Trust Me I’m An Expert</a> podcast from The Conversation Australia. Find a link to it in our show notes too. </p>
<p>And if you’re looking for some other podcasts to listen to in the meantime, check out Pasha from our colleagues at The Conversation Africa. Pasha means ‘to inform’ in Swahili and each week features a short interview with an academic expert. Recent episodes have focused on the health impacts of cyclone Idai in southern Africa, and the social stigma facing women in Ghana who don’t have children. Search for Pasha from The Conversation Africa wherever you get your podcasts. </p>
<p>A big thanks to all the academics who spoke to us for this episode and to the journalism department at City University for letting us use their studios. The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and me, Annabel Bligh. Sound by Alex Portfelix. And an extra big thanks to my co-host Indrajit Roy. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Thanks Annabel. See you soon. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Thanks for listening. Goodbye!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117045/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
This is a transcript of part 6 of India Tomorrow, focusing on India’s huge population of young people.Annabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UKGemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1164852019-05-08T10:26:13Z2019-05-08T10:26:13ZNarendra Modi’s performance on the Indian economy – five key policies assessed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273148/original/file-20190507-103085-8kfzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">India's new ₹2,000 note.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brand-new-indian-currency-notes-2000-532726012">Shutterstock / Santhosh Varghese</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Narendra Modi became India’s prime minister in spring 2014 the Indian economy was in the doldrums. There was a clear policy paralysis in India’s central government, in large part due to the high profile corruption cases that involved the central government bureaucracy and politicians at the time. Modi <a href="https://www.narendramodi.in/be/narendra-modi-addresses-rally-in-jharkhand-questions-the-congress-disruptive-practises-that-have-ruined-the-nation-6094">promised</a> Indians that “<em>acche din</em>” (good days) were coming. And there was expectation that the Indian economy would do well under a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-election/indias-pro-business-modi-storms-to-historic-election-win-idUSBREA4E0XG20140516">pro-business political regime</a>, headed by a politician known for <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2014/05/22/indias-strongman">acting strongly and decisively</a>.</p>
<p>Modi has had mixed successes in delivering on his promises. Here’s a breakdown of some of Modi’s key policies and how he has performed.</p>
<h2>1. Demonetisation</h2>
<p>India’s economic growth has not recovered to the high levels that were witnessed in the first decade of the 2000s. One important reason for the slow recovery was to do with the Modi government’s demonetisation policy. On November 8 2016, the government withdrew all 500 and 1000 rupee notes from circulation, announcing the issuance of new 500 and 2,000 rupee banknotes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW0a8VWQhfw">in exchange for the now-defunct old ones</a>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-5-economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-116678">Listen to part five of The Conversation’s podcast series, India Tomorrow, which explores Modi’s record on the economy further.</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The aim of demonetisation was to deal a death blow to the black economy by reducing the perceived use of illicit cash to fund terrorism and illegal activities. Instead, the policy led to a <a href="https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/money-finance/consequences-of-the-demonetisation-shock.html">contraction of the Indian economy</a>, and economic growth slowed down <a href="http://theasiadialogue.com/2019/04/30/indias-general-elections-2019-the-potential-electoral-consequences-of-demonetisation/">to a four-year low in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>Further, by 2018, around 99% of the bank notes that were made invalid <a href="https://qz.com/india/1373030/modis-demonetisation-did-nothing-for-india-shows-rbi-report/">had been deposited with the banking system</a>, suggesting that a large proportion of the 500 and 1000 rupee notes in circulation were not counterfeit notes or black money, as the government thought. Thus, demonetisation led to a large economic loss without any clear benefits in terms of reducing the role of the black economy or corruption.</p>
<h2>2. Goods and services tax (GST)</h2>
<p>The Modi government’s second bold policy step was to launch the goods and services tax (GST) in July 2017. The aim of the GST policy was to create a common market in India, as opposed to the many different sales taxes that existed in different Indian states. The initial effect of the introduction of the GST was negative on the economy. This was especially the case for India’s large informal sector – which employs the vast majority of people <a href="https://www.ilo.org/newdelhi/areasofwork/informal-economy/lang--en/index.htm">outside of agriculture</a>.</p>
<p>The initial implementation of the GST was not handled well – small businesses in particular were confused about onerous reporting requirements, which placed a large compliance burden on them. At the same time, the GST policy could be seen as one of the most important policy initiatives since the country’s landmark 1991 economic reforms and as the one of the <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/indian-eonomic-reforms-institutionalisation-of-the-gst-regime-a-constitutional-adventure-2956335/">most significant constitutional innovations since 1950</a>. While the initial effect of the GST policy on the Indian economy was a negative shock, the long-term impact is likely to be strongly positive.</p>
<h2>3. Delivery of public goods</h2>
<p>Modi delivered on a large number of important public goods schemes, which built on the initiatives of the previous government. For example, toilet coverage in rural India <a href="http://mofapp.nic.in:8080/economicsurvey/pdf/001-031_Chapter_01_ENGLISH_Vol_01_2017-18.pdf">increased from 47% of all households in 2015 to 74% in 2017</a>, in large part due to the Modi government’s sanitation programme. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273150/original/file-20190507-103071-di5nok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273150/original/file-20190507-103071-di5nok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273150/original/file-20190507-103071-di5nok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273150/original/file-20190507-103071-di5nok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273150/original/file-20190507-103071-di5nok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273150/original/file-20190507-103071-di5nok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273150/original/file-20190507-103071-di5nok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modi’s modernisation plan has included building more than 90m toilets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bikaner-india-mar-4-pictures-indicate-275325071?src=S1HITle4lLdFAxbSAUjuUg-1-0">Radiokafka / Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As part of the <em>Pradhan Mantri Awaz Yojana</em> initiative, the number of rural houses built increased threefold from 2014 to 2016. There was also a large push on rural electrification to ensure all villages had an electricity connection by 2018.</p>
<h2>4. Agriculture</h2>
<p>Around 50-60% of India’s population have some form of economic reliance on agriculture. This sector has experienced <a href="https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/farm-crisis-runs-deep-higher-msps-and-cash-handouts-are-not-enough">a prolonged period of decline in rural incomes since 2011</a>, leading to what may has been termed an agrarian crisis. </p>
<p>While the roots of this crisis are deep seated, it could also be attributed to the Modi government’s reluctance to increase minimum support prices for staple crops such as rice, wheat and pulses – something he promised to do in his 2014 campaign. This would have prevented the return of food price inflation, which was a major source of discontent with the previous government.</p>
<h2>5. Jobs</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most disappointing feature of the Modi government has been its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/01/opinion/india-unemployment-jobs-blackout.html">lack of success in creating jobs</a> for the large proportion of India’s labour force who are unskilled and poor. <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/unemployment-rate-at-five-decade-high-of-6-1-in-2017-18-nsso-survey-119013100053_1.html">Unemployment rose to a 45-year high</a>, according to a leaked report from India’s National Sample Survey Organisation. </p>
<p>The Modi government’s weak record in job creation was particularly surprising, given its original intention to rejuvenate the manufacturing sector as a source of job creation, with the much-heralded <a href="http://www.makeinindia.com/about">Make in India programme</a>. Here, as in the case of agriculture, the roots of India’s manufacturing malaise run deep. They can be linked to India’s inability to foster the kind of labour-intensive industrialisation <a href="https://indiaincgroup.com/indias-inclusivity-challenge-is-to-provide-productive-jobs-india-global-business/https:/indiaincgroup.com/indias-incluhttps:/indiaincgroup.com/indias-inclusivity-challenge-is-to-provide-productive-jobs-india-global-business/https:/indiaincgroup.com/indias-inclusivity-challenge-is-to-provide-productive-jobs-india-global-business/sivity-challenge-is-to-provide-productive-jobs-india-global-business/">that has taken place in China and other East Asian countries</a>. </p>
<p>The reasons for why this has been the case is complex, and can be linked to the low levels of skills among India’s workers, poor infrastructure and India’s antiquated labour laws. But, for all its reformist credentials, the Modi government made little headway in providing the jobs that India’s aspirational youth so desperately seek. This could prove crucial in the country’s 2019 national elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116485/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kunal Sen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Modi has had mixed successes in delivering on big promises to transform India’s economy.Kunal Sen, Professor and Director, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1166882019-05-07T12:44:36Z2019-05-07T12:44:36ZEconomic growth, inequality and jobs: India Tomorrow part 5 podcast transcript<p>This is a transcript of part five of The Anthill’s podcast series, India Tomorrow. <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-5-economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-116678">Listen to the full episode here</a> and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">our series episode guide</a>.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b90e?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Hello and welcome to India Tomorrow, a series brought to you by The Conversation’s Anthill podcast. I’m Annabel Bligh from The Conversation.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> And I’m Indrajit Roy, lecturer in politics at the University of York. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> In this episode of India Tomorrow, we’re going to be taking a look at India’s economy.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi rode to power in 2014 promising economic changes. It was a key plank of his election campaign. We’re going to explore how he has succeeded – and failed – to transform the Indian economy. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> We’ll also hear how some constituents feel let down by Modi’s failure to deliver on some of the major reforms that were promised. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kunal-sen-95492">Kunal Sen:</a></strong> So Narendra Modi promised quite a few things when he won the elections in 2014.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> That’s Kunal Sen, director of the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research and professor of development economics at the University of Manchester. </p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> The first thing he promised was to create jobs, especially because of the sense there was a bit of a problem with jobs being created in the previous years.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> We’ll examine India’s jobs situation a bit later. It’s safe to say at the moment, though, that this is a very hot topic when it comes to India’s economy.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> But first, it’s worth noting that India’s economic growth on the whole is very impressive. According to the IMF, India is the world’s fastest growing major economy. Its growth even outpaced China’s in 2018. </p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> Growth has recovered perhaps not back to the levels that India saw in around the first decade of the 2000s. Around the first decade of the 2000s economic economic growth rate in India was around 9% per annum which was very high, the highest ever India had actually seen in terms economic growth.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> But the economy has grown a lot more under Modi than before he came to power in 2014.</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> So there’s been some recovery and that is certainly something that has happened in the last few years, since Modi came to power.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Kunal says that another big promise of Modi’s was around reforming the Indian state and its ability to deliver public goods like infrastructure, health and education.</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> On the question of reforming the Indian state, this was a very ambitious promise and some of this has been achieved. For example in electrification, there has been quite a major drive in rural electrification in many villages in India. We have now electricity being provided that wasn’t the case before. They also see significant achievements in sanitation, for example, infrastructure provision, roads and so on, particularly rural roads, which has happened in the last four-five years or so. So on that I would say that we have seen some delivery in terms of public goods. But there have also been big challenges. There have been big challenges around reforming the Indian public sector, which really hasn’t happened. Maybe that was something that was always very difficult to do.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So that’s a kind of overview of how Modi has performed. One of the major policies that he implemented and that has dominated discussion of his time in office was demonetisation. Here’s Kunal again:</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> What he did was quite dramatic and perhaps not something that people expected, which was that on 8th November 2016 the government decided to essentially withdraw 500 rupee note and 1,000 rupee notes, the two major currency denominations, from the money supply and introduce a new 500 rupee note, along with a new 2,000 rupee note – we didn’t have 2,000 rupee notes denomination prior to this policy initiative. And that was done at a stroke of a pen.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Overnight, this demonetisation policy made 86% of the country’s cash worthless. Everyone in India was given 50 days to exchange their old bank notes for the new ones.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Indrajit, can you give those listening outside of India an idea of how much 500 rupees is worth?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> So, 500 Rupees could get you two decent meals in a place like Delhi. It’s slightly more than what a reasonably paid construction worker would be paid per day. So, wage rates in the sector are fixed at about Rs 350 per day, and 500 rupees is slightly more. So, construction workers would probably be paid a week’s wages in a bunch of 500 rupee notes. So these are bank notes are commonly used by people everyday and demonetisation therefore really was a dramatic move. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So, yeah, demonetisation was geared toward delivering Modi’s campaign promise to stamp out corruption and, in particular, to remove black money and counterfeit notes from the Indian economy. Kunal says, however, that this isn’t exactly what transpired.</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> Now what actually was surprising was, now we have the estimates from the Indian central bank, is 99% of those notes have been returned to the banking system, which meant actually there were very few counterfeit notes. So therefore the rationale that the government had, that this was a way to get rid of counterfeit notes, didn’t seem to really work in practice.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Not only did demonetisation not achieve its intended outcome, it gave the Indian economy quite a big shock.</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> When you withdraw money like that, in an economy which is quite reliant on cash, it can be a huge negative shock to the economy. And particularly in the sectors which are cash intensive, which is obviously the agricultural sector and the informal sector, for those sectors they face the brunt of this particular policy initiative because suddenly you’re in a situation when essential day-to-day activities need money, need cash, there wasn’t any cash. And that cash came back to the system quite late. It took a long time for the government and central banks, banking system to supply the new notes that were in, came into circulation after November 8.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Kunal says that it’s hard to say exactly how much of a shock demonetisation had on the economy – largely because economists don’t have accurate data on the informal sector in India, which is a sector that includes the numerous micro and small-medium enterprises, and roughly comprises at least 80% of India’s workforce.</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> The estimates on the loss in GDP is around 1.5% of GDP, which is quite a bit. And given that that loss seems to have been concentrated in the informal sector, the agricultural sector, which is where most of the poor are, that would mean that not only did we see a big loss in GDP but we particularly saw a big loss in incomes of the working poor. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> But, Kunal told us, despite hurting the economy, demonetisation was not altogether unpopular with people he spoke to as part of his fieldwork.</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> Many people felt that Modi did a very brave thing, a very bold thing and many people felt that, “OK, we suffered” – and this is my own interviews with lots of poor villagers in different parts of eastern India. When I was talking to them, a couple of months after this particular demonetisation happened, their argument to me was, “Well, OK, you know we’ve lost some income, some ways to ways to maintain our livelihoods. But we think that the rich person in our village suffered more. And we feel that’s actually good that that person suffered more than I did and therefore I feel that this policy, as much as I think I got hurt from this particular policy, I think I support it.” </p>
<p>The perception that was there was that, “yes, we suffered”. But perhaps this particular policy was needed for the national interest and for that very important objective of trying to curb black money and to control corruption. And because we think that this particular policy is going to particularly affect those who are corrupt and those who have lots of money that they gain from illicit means, we actually think the policy is a good thing.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Kunal was also quick to point out, however, that this is what people were saying in the immediate aftermath of the demonetisation policy and once the longer term effect of it began to kick in, people may have gone on to change their minds.</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> So for example there was elections in Uttar Pradesh not not very long after the demonetisation policy initiative that, where the BJP government did pretty well. But in the subsequent by-elections that we saw in Uttar Pradesh and other parts in India, the BJP government didn’t do so well. So it could well be that the initial perception was fairly positive. But as things turned out for those who are affected by this policy in a negative way their views might have changed over the over over the course of a year or so.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> The reason demonetisation caused an economic slowdown is because India is a cash intensive economy. Lots of people don’t have bank accounts and lots of workers will get paid in cash. Jens Lerche, reader in development studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies, explains how demonetisation affected all these people.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jens-lerche-733564">Jens Lerche</a>:</strong> It meant a huge cash crunch because, of course, there weren’t enough new currency to go around. So, any sector or any people relying on cash had a problem. That meant small businesses, any cash-in-hand jobs. So construction, street vendors, people working in brick kilns, and so on, couldn’t get paid. So small businesses suffered and so did people in low-end jobs.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Jens was also in India doing field work in villages just after the demonetisation policy was introduced and then again 18 months later. </p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> I work mainly in villages. What I saw there was that many of the low caste, Dalit construction workers, that normally would be working in Delhi, Mumbai, the big cities, were back home because there was simply no work for them in the towns any longer.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Jens also points to the lack of accurate data but says it’s clear that demonetisation, along with another Modi policy, the goods and services tax that was introduced in July 2017, had negative effects on a number of businesses.</p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> But we know that this, together with what came the year after, namely the Goods and Services Tax, which is VAT, that was introduced. Which means that you pay the VAT as a small business but then you get it refunded afterwards, led to even more of an economic crunch on small businesses. Altogether, those two initiatives are estimated to have cost three to four million jobs. Some organisations claim that demonetisation led to a continued loss of jobs of around 1.5m. But these are tricky figures. Together there’s no doubt that both of them led to significant job loss.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Jobs – the lack of them – has been one of the major disappointments of the Modi government. One of his key promises in 2014 was to create millions of jobs for young people and reverse what he called decades of “jobless growth”. Here’s economist Kunal Sen again:</p>
<p><strong>Kunal Sen:</strong> In fact, if anything, it seems that Indian unemployment rates in India have increased in the last few years. The most recent estimate we have which has been leaked from the National Statistical survey organisation is that India has the highest unemployment rate ever in its history since independence. Obviously since we do not have access to the actual report, we can’t be sure about this information. But the general sense is that we haven’t seen the kind of jobs growth that was promised by Modi when he came to power in 2014.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> The Modi government has been accused of withholding jobs data in the run up to the election because of how bad the official figures are. But the latest employment survey, which was approved by India’s national statistics commission, was leaked to the Indian newspaper the Business Standard in late January and showed unemployment was at a record high of 6.1%. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> By a lot of standards 6.1% is not a bad unemployment rate. But for India it’s very significant, according to Jens Lerche, because there isn’t strong welfare provision in the country. And the unemployment rate was just 2.2% in the 2011-2012 financial year. </p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> Now unemployment is uncommon in a country such as India because poor people have to work. So, people being without jobs to some extent is people that can afford not to work – educated people that have a family background that they can live off for a while. But, what we have seen here is jobs that have disappeared also within the agricultural sector and low end of manufacturing sector. So it does appear as if poor people are also losing their jobs here. </p>
<p>In fact for the first time ever we are seeing a fall in employment over a year in the Indian economy. I mean, there’s a huge population growth and the issue is normally whether job growth can keep up with the population growth. But, India has, in the words of Manmohan Singh, the ex-prime minister, gone from “jobless growth to job loss growth”. That is a problem. We haven’t got official data but data compiled by a reputable non-governmental research institute argues that employment has fallen 11m jobs in the last year.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> The leaked jobs data shows that the unemployment rate is much higher for people under 30 – something we’re going to hear more about in our next episode which is focused on India’s huge population of young people. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> It goes to show how India’s economic growth is not benefiting everyone. Now, all the blame for this cannot be laid at Modi’s feet. There are deep-rooted issues with the Indian economy which predate his tenure. But, Jens says, that demonetisation and the Goods and Services tax have not helped because they hurt so many businesses.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> More generally speaking, inequality is a big issue. Jens points to research which shows how India’s impressive economic growth has not benefited everyone.</p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> Oxfam produces wonderful Oxfam inequality reports every year. Their view is that it’s only the top 10% of the population that really has benefited from that growth. Poverty has decreased in India. But proportionately it is the top part of society that benefits from this.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> And things are getting worse.</p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> And so so the situation today is that if you take the top 1% of the population, they own more than half of all the wealth. And if you take the top nine billionaires, their wealth is equivalent to that of the bottom 50% of the population. So a very very tiny elite that owns the bulk of the wealth.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> A lot of this inequality falls along caste and regional lines, with poverty rates much higher among so-called lower castes, the ex-untouchables or Dalits and the scheduled tribes, who are also referred to as Adivasis.</p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> There are certain sectors where the lowest, where the groups that are discriminated against, the Dalits and the Adivasis, will work. And that is in brick kilns, where you have appalling conditions; it is construction where you work very long hours and it’s very hard work; it is sanitation work, anything to do with human waste; and, it is also low-end factory jobs. If you are from a slightly better background, you are more likely to also have better education and you are more likely to have certificates that will mean you can gain access to proper industrial work. And if you are from higher caste, you may may end up in better jobs. So, there’s a clear hierarchy in the kind of jobs you get.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Jens says the relationship between caste and inequality is incredibly stark.</p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> Low-caste people earn just only a tiny bit more than half of what high-caste people do. They earn 56% of what high caste people do. That means that the caste-based earnings gap is actually worse than the gender-based earnings gap. Women earn less than men but low-caste people earn even less.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> The scheduled tribes, or Adivasis, make up a large pool of India’s migrant workforce who move to wherever there are work opportunities.</p>
<p><strong>Jens Lerche:</strong> They end up in the worst jobs across sectors. We’ve seen that, we have, together with my colleague, Alpa Shah, we have done a major study of work at the bottom of the hierarchy in the modern sector. And it’s clear that wherever you go in India you will find Adivasis right at the bottom as migrant labourers. They will not speak the local language, they will not have access to the local social services, such as subsidised food. They will not have any political say because local politicians do not care about the migrant labourers. So, they can be treated much more harshly than the local can be.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Actually a lot of migrant workers may not be able to vote in the upcoming elections because you can only vote where you are registered. And many will be registered in their home towns or villages – and it’s too far and too expensive for them to travel back to vote.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So I know you’ve been working on a research project about India’s migrant workers, Indrajit. What have you found? How have they fared in recent years?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> So we’ve spoken to lots of people from Bihar state in India’s east who move to other parts of the country looking for better opportunities and what they would consider dignified work – you know, what they call <em>ijjat ka kaam</em>. A lot of what they find is precarious work and many people end up moving back to their villages where much of the work is in agriculture. But here too there are problems.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Farmers make up a significant proportion of India’s population.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nitya-rao-733568">Nitya Rao:</a></strong> So when India got freedom 70 years ago it was almost 50-60% of the gross domestic product, was the contribution of agriculture.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Nitya Rao is professor of gender and development at the University of East Anglia and she is an expert in India’s agricultural sector.</p>
<p><strong>Nitya Rao:</strong> Now it’s about 15% or 10-15%. So it has come down, so there is a transition there with development. However, 50-60% of the population of India is still rural and still partly dependent on agriculture.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> So a lot of people are partly dependent because family members are leaving farming to try and find other jobs. Some in cities as we heard before, others in what is becoming a very diverse rural economy.</p>
<p><strong>Nitya Rao:</strong> So that means they would still have some kind of backup within farming, at least 50 to 60% of the population, even though some member of the household may be diversifying into other occupations.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> In the last couple of years there have been a number of protests involving tens of thousands of farmers marching on the capital and other major cities.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> India’s agricultural crisis predates Modi. But, Nitya says, that farmers have been especially frustrated because in 2014 Modi promised to implement a number of reforms that had been recommended by the National Farmers Commission, a group that was set up in 2004 to identify the reforms necessary to alleviate the suffering of farmers.</p>
<p><strong>Nitya Rao:</strong> So over the last decade or so, actually, the agrarian crisis has been building up because of both these factors – climate variability, which is of course beyond the control of the government. But also, of the lack of certainty about prices.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Nitya points out that farmers’ fortunes are dependent on both the climate and the market. While they might not be able to control the climate, the government can help farmers when it comes to the market. They can do a lot to alleviate the suffering of farmers such as guaranteeing certain prices for crops or compensating farmers when harvests are bad and waiving the big loans that they have to pay for seeds and fertiliser.</p>
<p><strong>Nitya Rao:</strong> The protests started escalating in 2017, about one and a half years or two years ago, over the summer, when, in the north Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, they had a very good harvest of pulses, which is a high value crop. And it was not procured by the government at minimum prices. So farmers, which required a lot of investment for growing pulses, they had to literally leave a lot of the pulses on their fields because it was a loss even to spend extra money for transportation, to take it to the markets, since they were getting a lower price, a price below their cost of input.</p>
<p>And thereafter, there was a series of such, crops specific in different parts of India. So there was tomato harvest in Uttar Pradesh State. And last year in Maharashtra, in November, there was a very big protest of about 10,000 farmers who came to the city of Mumbai, from all parts of the state, protesting for three things really. One is a minimum support price; second thing was drought compensation, because it had been a drought so they wanted compensation payments for drought; and the third thing was that they had all taken loans for inputs and they wanted a waiver of these loans.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> These protests have attracted a lot of attention – not least because of the visceral imagery that farmers have used to reflect the struggles they face.</p>
<p><strong>Nitya Rao:</strong> I’ve seen also some protesters, farmers, actually from where I am, from the state of Tamil Nadu, when they went to Delhi, they were I think bearing skulls and so on, to symbolise that, you know, a lot of people were dying and they were almost like dead to people. So I think there was a lot of symbolism around death.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So there is definitely anger toward the Modi government for failing to deliver on the reforms that were promised. But we’ll have to see how this anger from farmers plays out in the 2019 national elections. As with other sections of Indian society that we’ve heard about in this series so far, farmers are a diverse group. Religion, caste, class, and gender will all influence how farmers feel about the incumbent government and what kind of future they want. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Before voting began in April, many thought that the issue of Kashmir, and the recent flare up of tensions with Pakistan, <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-3-kashmir-115733">about which we heard in episode 3</a>, might dominate the political debate. But actually, attentions are turning back to the economy, how it’s performed and what it’s done for different groups such as the farmers and young people.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Yes, there are a whopping 84m first time voters in this election and these young people are the focus of our next episode:</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Now unlike the same generation 25 years ago, that set of young people are very well aware of events in other parts of the world, which are streamed to them via their mobile phones, on the internet. They are increasingly in secondary school, including young women. And in school they’re learning to obviously dream big.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Do subscribe to The Anthill podcast, if you haven’t already, so you don’t miss out on that. That’s in part 6 of India Tomorrow. You can read more of The Conversation’s coverage of India by academics <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/indian-elections-2019-68064">from around the world on theconversation.com</a> or follow us on social media. If you’ve got any questions relating to what we’ve been discussing in this series, please do get in touch via email on podcast@theconversation.com or on twitter @anthillpod. We’ll put these to a panel of academics we’ve got lined up to discuss the election results at the end of May. And if you’re looking for a transcript of this episode, and other episodes in this series, it will also be available soon on theconversation.com. </p>
<p>Thank you to all the academics who spoke to us for this episode and to the journalism department at City University for letting us use their studios. The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and me, Annabel Bligh. Sound by Alex Portfelix. And an extra big thanks to my co-host Indrajit Roy. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Thanks Annabel. See you next week. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Thank you for listening. Goodbye!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, rode to power in 2014 promising economic transformation.Annabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UKGemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1166782019-05-07T12:42:02Z2019-05-07T12:42:02ZIndia Tomorrow part 5: economic growth, inequality and jobs<p>Part five of India Tomorrow takes a look at India’s economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi rode to power in 2014 promising economic transformation. It was a key plank of his election campaign and this episode explores how he succeeded – and failed – to deliver on this front. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b90e?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p>We hear how India’s economy grew during Modi’s time in office. Kunal Sen, professor of development economics at the University of Manchester, tells us how Modi succeeded in reforming the Indian state and its ability to deliver public goods like sanitation, electricity and other important infrastructure.</p>
<p>Despite these successes, however, inequality is on the rise. Jens Lerche, reader in labour and agrarian studies at SOAS, says “if you take the top 1% of India’s population, they own more than half of all the wealth”. We discover which sections of society are not benefiting from India’s impressive growth figures.</p>
<p>We also find out how two major new policies – demonetisation and the goods and services tax – hurt a number of businesses. The withdrawal of all 500 and 1,000 rupee notes from circulation (demonetisation) and the bureaucracy that came with the new tax, led to some serious cash flow problems, with lots of people losing their jobs as a result. And when it comes to jobs, controversy over the country’s employment figures (the official data has been withheld) is a really hot topic in the national elections.</p>
<p>Last, we find out why tens of thousands of India’s farmers have been protesting. Nitya Rao, professor of gender and development at UEA, explains the background to India’s agrarian crisis. It long predates Modi’s tenure, but many farmers are angry at the current government for not delivering on reforms promised in the 2014 election campaign.</p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/indias-economy-india-tomorrow-part-5-podcast-transcript-116688">transcript of this episode here</a>, and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">Subscribe to our Anthill podcast newsletter to hear about new episodes as soon as they drop.</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: EPA-EFE/Divyakant Solanki</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a> all via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>In Depth - Demonetisation, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDaHumiaoNE">Rajya Sabha TV
news clip</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Long Queues Continue In Banks & ATMs After One Month Of Demonetization, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLe4rK5Y8JI">India Today news clip</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Protesting India farmers: ‘We want what we were promised’, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ1Z2_gHVTQ">BBC News clip</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>What’s Ailing Rural India: Farmers Hold Mega March In Delhi, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQGKcn2oQXk">CNBC-TV18 clip</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Farmers Go On 10-Day Protest, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDxDF2Jizk0&feature=youtu.be&t=27">ET Now clip</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Thousands Of Farmers Walk To Delhi, Mission Parliament Today <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q18w426Xssg&t=25s">NDTV clip</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>Part five of India Tomorrow takes a look at India’s economy.Annabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationIndrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1135632019-05-06T05:59:25Z2019-05-06T05:59:25ZIndia election 2019: millions of Indian youth are underemployed and going to the polls<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264565/original/file-20190319-28471-1ymzat4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4679%2C2927&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indian general elections begin April 11.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-putting-ballot-box-during-elections-92687854">vepar5/shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Here’s an astonishingly large number. Around 900 million Indians are heading to the polls to decide if they want to reelect the current government of Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641">India Tomorrow</a> is a seven-part podcast series by The Anthill (produced by The Conversation UK), exploring some of the major issues facing India – identity politics, the rise of Hindu nationalism, Kashmir, the role of caste and gender in shaping Indian society, and how women and young people experience these phenomena.</p>
<p>Part one, <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-fake-news-and-the-battle-for-information-113579">an episode on India’s information wars and how fake news fuels violence</a>, launched on April 9. You can sign up to The Anthill newsletter to stay up to date and send questions via podcast@theconversation.com or via Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthillPod">@AnthillPod</a>. The producers will be putting your questions to academics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-should-engage-with-the-unemployment-crisis-affecting-indian-youth-113034">Why Australia should engage with the unemployment crisis affecting Indian youth</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Today on Trust Me, I’m An Expert, we’re hearing from an academic featured on <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641">India Tomorrow</a>. Craig Jeffrey is the director and CEO of the Australia India Institute and Professor of Development Geography at the University of Melbourne. </p>
<p>He explains what issues are front of mind for India’s millions of first-time voters delivering their verdict on the performance of the BJP government, led by Narendra Modi.</p>
<p>“Two things are really crucial. One is jobs. Young people across India and particularly in parts of India where the economy’s been less successful at creating jobs - so some of the northern states, for example, are going to be really concerned with the capacity of the government to provide better employment opportunities,” Professor Jeffrey told The Conversation’s editorial intern Bageshri Savyasachi.</p>
<p>“The second issue, I think, that they’ll be very concerned about is education. So they’ll be looking to see which political parties and politicians are promising to improve higher education […] Because for a lot of young people who aren’t part of the elite in India, there is a mismatch, often, between the educational opportunities they obtain in school or university and then the employment markets and the demands of key private sector firms.”</p>
<p>“A third area that’s perhaps less obvious is the issue of health care and public health. And my own observations, as an anthropologist and human geographer working in mainly Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the past 25 years on social change, is that young people are often demanding access to health services that are poorly provisioned in provincial India, particularly in relation to issues like sexual health, mental health, reproductive health and that’s an area where I think young people are looking to government for more action.”</p>
<p>Join us as Professor Jeffrey explains what implications this enormous election will have for the world’s second most populous nation, and for the rest of the globe as well. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow: a podcast series from The Anthill – episode guide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="https://pca.st/VTv7">here</a> to listen to Trust Me, I’m An Expert on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear us on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed and click on the icon to find Trust Me, I’m An Expert.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/trust-me-im-an-expert/id1290047736?mt=2&ign-mpt=uo%3D8"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3RydXN0LW1lLXBvZGNhc3QucnNz"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/trust-me-im-an-expert"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Trust-Me-Im-An-Expert-p1035757/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-Wa3E5A"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7myc7drbLJVaRitAMXLB7V"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Transcript</h2>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Those numbers are astonishing, aren’t they? And it’s very difficult, I think, for pundits to predict what precisely they’ll do in terms of the elections. What’s slightly easier to say, though, I think, is what’s in the minds of those voters. And I think two things are really crucial, one is jobs. So young people across India and particularly in parts of India where the economy’s been less successful at creating jobs - so some of the northern states, for example - are going to be really concerned with the capacity of the government to provide better employment opportunities. The second issue, I think, that they’ll be very concerned about is education. So they’ll be looking to see which political parties and politicians are promising to improve higher education, tertiary education more generally, the skills environment and school education. Because for a lot of young people who aren’t part of the elite in India, there is a mismatch, often, between the educational opportunities they obtain in school or university and then the employment market and the demands of key private sector firms. </p>
<p>So I think jobs and education are going to be at the top of young people’s minds as they go into the polling booths. What are parties and politicians promising in those areas? </p>
<p>A third area that’s perhaps less obvious is the issue of health care and public health. And my own observations, as an anthropologist and human geographer working in mainly Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the past 25 years on social change, is that young people are often demanding access to health services that are poorly provisioned in provincial India particularly in relation to issues like sexual health, mental health, reproductive health and that’s an area where I think young people are looking to government for more action. And I think that will also be in young people’s minds in the lead up to the elections. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-podcast-transcript-fake-news-and-the-battle-for-information-115077">India Tomorrow part 1 podcast transcript: Fake news and the battle for information</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> What jobs are available to young people and do they want to do those jobs?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think one of the stories of Indian economic growth since 1990 is its failure to create a large number of what might be regarded as white collar or middle class jobs for the increasing numbers of young people who are getting high school matriculation certificates or degrees in India. Now, India’s not especially unusual in that regard. Particularly since the global financial crisis in the late 2000s, economies around the world have often found it difficult to create secure employment opportunities for people. Of course, automation, mechanisation is changing the nature of work throughout the world. So this isn’t specific to India but India is an almost very condensed or intense example of the failure of economic growth to create lots of good quality jobs, that long predates 2014 and the coming to power of the BJP. It’s a structural feature of the Indian economy since 1990 and especially since the mid-2000s period. </p>
<p>So to get to your question of what jobs actually exist, in many cases what we’re seeing in India is people having to realign their expectations of what work they’re going to do in that five to 10 year period after they graduate from high school or university. This is not new. Ronald Dore wrote in his book The Diploma Disease in 1970 that India was the country of the BA bus conductor. So that sense of having to downplay your expectations in light of circumstances is quite old in India. But now, I would argue, that a lot of people with bachelors degrees in India would be very keen to have a job on state roadways as a bus conductor, so intense and cut-throat has the employment market become. So you’re seeing people with masters degrees, with PhDs having to do very small scale entrepreneurial business work, you’re seeing them especially having to go back into agriculture – not as large-scale agricultural innovators making large amounts of money and employing other people but rather working on quite small plots of land in an environment where they didn’t imagine that they would go back into farming. So one of the alarming statistics, I think, is that while in most of the period between 2000 and 2010 the number of young people in agriculture was declining, as you would expect in a country that’s undergoing a structural transformation from agriculture into manufacturing and services, in the 2010s and particularly since 2014 there has been an increase in young people in agriculture. Now that is quite worrying for India and reflects the point that jobs in the modern economy are not becoming available quickly enough, young people are not finding the infrastructural and institutional environment conducive to moving into successful medium-scale entrepreneurship where they employ other people and find an outlet for their talents. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> How crucial has mobilising young people been to the electoral successes of the ruling party, the BJP?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> That’s an easy question to answer because of the demographic structure of India and the figures for voting in 2014 in particular show that of course the BJP has been very successful at mobilising people generally in India to vote for them and that includes young people. It’s done so through making a series of important statements about its approach to social and economic change. And it has done so also through tapping into, I think, a sense of national identity that’s important to young people. So the BJP has been pretty successful. Not just the BJP but also various organisations connected to the party at the grassroots level. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> Is young people’s support for Modi on the wane? A lot of young people supported him when he was first running for prime minister but now a lot of young people are feeling disappointed. What do you think?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> I should do that classic academic thing of saying that I’m not an expert on the contemporary views of young people in India. Where I’ve done most of my research has been in particular pockets of India, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and the bulk of that research was done in the period between 1995 and 2010. Since 2010, my work has been mainly in a village in quite a remote part of Uttarakhand, in Chamoli district, and I’ve written quite a lot about the social and political attitudes of young people in that village. Now, those are quite particular to one part of India. Like you and like lots of people, I read the newspapers, I talk to friends in different parts of India, I try to pick up on the streets a sense of the mood. But in that regard, I’m an armchair or amateur interpreter of young people’s political views at the moment. </p>
<p>With those caveats in mind, my sense is that young people may not support Modi as much as they did five years ago but that doesn’t mean that they won’t vote for him. So one needs to maybe distinguish between support and how people will actually behave in the ballot booth. I think lots of people that I speak to recognise that given the high pitch to which Modi raised people’s aspirations in 2014 there was always going to be a sense of disappointment, that skilling hundreds of millions of people quickly was going to be a very tough ask. And that the vision of New India, while attractive in certain respects, is not borne out in social reality for those outside of the elite and particularly in provincial parts of India, in small town and rural India. So people see on the social and economic side a kind of mismatch between promise and actuality. And I think that’s undermined a certain enthusiasm for the ruling BJP government. I’m really not in a position to be able to adjudicate on the extent to which people have sort of fallen out of love with a particular vision of the nation as primarily Hindu or driven by a Hindu civilisational push. That’s, I think, more difficult to ascertain. It’s tricky. The question, I suppose, is: is 2019 to be like 2004, where there was a bit of a surprise that actually the Indian population, including the young population, did move away from the BJP? And it was partly because they didn’t feel that they were sharing in the social gains associated with economic growth. And it was partly, as you just observed, that some of the aspects of the sort of rhetoric of Hindu nationalism were not anymore particularly attractive. So it is possible that the same kind of cocktail will still exist in 2019, of sort of a sense of social and economic exclusion and a sense of being a little bit tired of the same message coming out from the government. But it’s very very difficult to tell. As I said, one has to distinguish between support and enthusiasm on the one hand and the actual decision to vote on the other. Because one thing you see again and again in elections in India is people putting their votes in for politicians or parties that they don’t actually very much like but they feel like they ought to. Ultimately, it’s the least bad choice that they want to make, which is of course it’s not distinctly Indian, it’s an aspect of how people vote across the world. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641">India Tomorrow podcast series from The Anthill – trailer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> We’ll just have to wait and watch. What is the state of youth unemployment in India? My impression is that for young people, it’s hard to get a job if you don’t have a masters or a bachelor’s degree. And even then you may not get a job in your chosen field. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Oh, that’s absolutely right. The recent NSSO figures show that youth unemployment in India is something around 16 or 17%. Now those figures are contested but my view is that they are fairly robust. And, of course, beyond that problem of outright unemployment, there’s a very large problem of underemployment where people are working in part-time insecure work that doesn’t reflect their skills, ambitions and credentials. So both outright unemployment and underemployment are becoming increasing problems in India. In 2010, I wrote a book called Timepass which drew attention to this problem based on fieldwork work in Western Uttar Pradesh. I talked about the emergence of a generation of young people who described themselves as people with nothing to do. Who were doing nothing but also in some sense saw themselves as being nothing. A very intense form of social suffering associated with a prolonged period of unemployment or underemployment. </p>
<p>When I talk to young people in the same area now they say that actually that book is more relevant in 2019 than it was in 2010. Someone told me when I visited India two weeks ago “I felt like it had been written yesterday” and this reflects the way this problem of unemployment and underemployment to young people has intensified over the past nine years rather than dissipated. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> In her recent book, Dreamers: how young Indians are changing the world, the prominent Indian journalist Snigdha Poonam writes, “the world’s future depends on young Indians meeting their aspirations but it’s a pipe dream at this point”. How big of a problem is this disconnect between young Indians’ aspirations and their reality?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think it’s a huge problem and I think that the book Dreamers is very successful in setting that out. It’s worth again going back to the point about demographics. One in eight people in the world is an Indian under the age of 30. It’s worth repeating that: one in eight people in the world is an Indian young person, someone under the age of 30. Now, that’s an extraordinary statistic and it gives a sense of the importance of that demographic for the future of Asia and of the world. Now unlike the same generation 25 years ago, that set of young people are very well aware of events in other parts of the world which are streamed to them via their mobile phones or on the internet. They are increasingly in secondary school, including young women, and in school they’re learning to obviously dream big. And the government is also encouraging those young people to see themselves as part of a new India that’s modern, in which people are based often in urban areas doing what historically has been described as sort of middle class work, service work. And now where you’ve got that situation of both demographic growth and the rapid sort of revolution of rising aspirations, you need an outlet for young people so that they feel as they move into their 20s and 30s that they’re achieving the goals that they desire. And that’s not happening. And the question then is, how much of a problem is that? Well, obviously for the young people concerned it’s a big problem for their families. Young people are not passive in that situation, they actively and creatively seek ways to make do. That may be entering into fallback work in agriculture. It may be finding jobs that perhaps they weren’t aspiring to originally but which provide a means for establishing a family and getting by, in areas like sales and marketing. But there is also a lot of just disappointment, I think, and a sense of stuckedness and limbo that, again, I wrote about in detail in my book Timepass. What’s surprising, perhaps, is that that sense of social suffering hasn’t led to more unrest in India and I think there are several reasons for that. I think partly because India is a democracy people have an outlet for frustration through the political system, through voting, through demonstrating on the streets. I think a second reason why there hasn’t been more political mobilisation is that people often perceive this as a personal failure rather than a failure of government or of society or as a structural failure, as social scientists would put it. They see it as “Well, I didn’t try hard enough” or “I wasn’t successful enough in that examination”. So it’s quite a lot of this failure I think often is personalised rather than seen as a reflection of the structural features of the Indian economy and the wider institutional environment in which people may be trying to start businesses. There’s a whole history of commentators on India talking about the country as being poised to sort of fall into unrest. I’m not going to do that. I think India, it holds together and as I said people are, young people are actively finding ways to make do. But I do think it’s a major social issue at the moment, the lack of capacity for young people to realise their aspirations and it should be and will remain an absolutely critical issue for government in India. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> How has national politics played out in Indian universities under Modi? </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, the information that leaks out on this issue tends to come from a small number of the very well-known universities in India. So universities like Jawaharlal Nehru University, Hyderabad University, Delhi University and that there has been, over the past few years as you’ll be well aware, a series of controversies over the government’s treatment of student protesters in those universities and of the ideological, the role of government in shaping how universities operate ideologically through, for example, the appointment of particular vice-chancellors with particular views on politics that then shape those institutions. Now, that’s a very important debate and it’s one that people can follow through a whole series of articles in magazines and newspapers in India. What interests me more is what’s happening outside of those well known central universities. What is happening actually in universities like the one that I worked in quite a bit 15 years ago. Chaudhary Charan Singh University which is the sixth largest university in the world if one excludes universities that provide distance education. And is actually, according to some sources, the second largest university in India after Indira Gandhi National Open University, which of course is largely a distance university, distance education university. So what’s happening in those big state universities that are affiliating other colleges. And that’s an area which desperately requires consideration. I think it would repay close social research. You’re seeing the emergence of different types of student politics to that which existed 15 years ago and some of those forms of student politics are linked to a Hindu nationalist agenda. Some are not. There’s a great deal of foment in those sort of more provincial universities that operates under the radar on which commentators and social scientists know very little about but which is really important in terms of shaping the environment in which the vast majority of students in India study, which is in colleges, not actually in universities. It’s in colleges affiliated to universities like Chaudhary Charan Singh University. I’d be really interested in hearing from anyone who’s listening to this podcast about their views or experiences of the curricular, of student action in India’s colleges where most people study. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> Do you think there is a growing shift towards illiberalism among India’s youth?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think that’s a really interesting question. First, one has to think about, well, what is liberalism? And if we define that relatively narrowly in terms of a commitment to formal equality and individual freedoms then I think there’s evidence both ways. There’s evidence of young people contesting those visions of formal equality and individual freedom, for example through their views on areas like sexuality. So there was a recent Centre for the Study of Developing Societies survey that showed that the majority of young Indians didn’t approve of homosexuality. So there’s some evidence there of a certain kind of “illiberalism”. There’s evidence of young people’s involvement in societies or organisations that are policing people’s right to eat certain foods, again which would suggest the rise of a certain form of illiberalism. But there’s also of course a great deal of evidence the other way, that young people are very active in nongovernmental organisations that are seeking to protect people’s formal equality, protect people’s freedoms. The number of youth NGOs in India is growing very, very quickly. There’s also, I think, a very interesting debate about the relationship between the individual and liberalism in India. So an argument that’s been made by several people is that actually liberalism in India is organised around a sense of group rights rather than around individual rights. So it’s perfectly possible to be part of a caste organisation or a religious organisation that’s about equality and freedom but nevertheless is articulating those notions of equality and freedom through reference to caste and religion. So that would be an argument that I think lots of Hindu nationalists would make, is that even though Hindus are the majority and even though that they’re making an argument in Hindu terms, it’s an argument about tolerance and about liberalism rather than about violence or exclusion or limiting people’s freedoms. So it’s a very complicated question. There’s evidence both ways. There’s also a tangled set of debates about whether you could have a kind of liberalism based on a sense of group rights and whether so-called Western visions of liberalism can really be applied to a place like India, where notions of religion and caste and family are so strong. That might be a more detailed answer than you wanted but it’s one that really interests, this is a question that really interests me. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> What do young people think now in 2019 that their parents or grandparents may not have thought at the same age?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think one of the effects of more young people studying in secondary school is that they’ve often absorbed notions of citizenship and good government that are communicated in school textbooks. So in one of the villages where I work, I was sitting working with a young person who was doing an English lesson recently and one of the English exercises was to write a letter to the local district magistrate in English complaining about the state of the drains in their neighbourhood. And this was obviously an attempt not only to learn English but to inculcate a particular vision of the citizen and of the state. And I think the effect of having large numbers of young people in school, being exposed to these narratives is actually that many more people have accepted and appreciate that kind of vision of rights and citizenship than in the 1990s when I started doing fieldwork in north India. So you see that’s reflected, for example, in young people’s support for anti-corruption movements. You see it in terms of young people’s questioning of forms of malpractice that exist in certain bureaucracies in India. Another point I’d really like to stress is the revolution that’s been happening in India with reference to women’s and especially young women’s rights and capacities. And that’s, I think, really a major success story in the last 20 years in India or 30 years, is that women and young women have achieved a much greater degree of autonomy and voice at all levels of society and in cities as well as in villages. Now, that comes, of course with all sorts of caveats about the continued problems of gender violence, of disparities in terms of pay and access to schooling and social goods. Nevertheless, I think that is a really important point to stress about the achievements of India in the period since 2000.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p>Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from <a href="https://www.elefanttraks.com/">Elefant Traks</a></p>
<h2>Image:</h2>
<p>Shutterstock</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The world's largest democracy will see its biggest young voter turnout since gaining independence 72 years ago, with millions delivering their verdict on Narendra Modi's BJP government.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorBageshri Savyasachi, Editorial InternLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1161152019-04-30T11:25:54Z2019-04-30T11:25:54ZIndia Tomorrow part 4: women, gender and love<p>This episode of India Tomorrow, a series from <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">The Anthill podcast</a>, digs into what life is like for women in India. We look at how much they are represented among the country’s lawmakers and whether they might even be considered an electoral group in Indian politics.</p>
<p>Like lots of countries around the world, India suffers from gender inequality. But in terms of global rankings, it scores pretty low – India comes in at number 130 out of 188 countries on the <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/data">UN Development Programme’s Gender Inequality Index</a>. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b90f?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p>India is also pretty low down when it come to global rankings of violence against women. The gang rape of a 23-year-old student in Delhi in 2012 <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-revolution-for-indias-urban-women-must-start-at-home-22427">sparked international outrage</a> and led to huge campaigns in India to deal with its rape culture. Nonetheless, you’ll regularly see cases of rape and sexual violence against women of all ages in the local news. India’s National Crime Records Bureau reported <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-has-a-sexual-assault-problem-that-only-women-can-fix-101366">more than 300,000 crimes against women</a> – including nearly 40,000 rapes – in 2016, the most recent government data available.</p>
<p>We find out how women in India deal with the day-to-day threat of sexual violence. Sneha Krishnan from the University of Oxford shares stories from her time spent researching the experiences of young women in the city of Chennai. She tells us how women deal with societal expectations to appear “respectable” and limitations like 4pm curfews that are put in place for their own safety. We hear tales of daytime clubbing and how people’s love lives get policed when they strike up relationships across caste and religious lines.</p>
<p>We learn about the phenomenon of “love jihad” from Delhi University historian Charu Gupta. This is the idea that Muslim men are seducing Hindu women to convert them to Islam. But, as Gupta explains, the idea has been proliferated by Hindu nationalists to politically mobilise people and is part of a conservative backlash against women asserting their freedom to love who they want. </p>
<p>We also find out the extent that gender inequality extends to the political sphere. Carole Spary from the University of Nottingham, who’s <a href="https://india.oup.com/product/performing-representation-9780199489053?searchbox_input=spary">written a book on women in the Indian parliament</a>, tells us how increasing numbers of women are engaging with politics but many are put off from running for office. </p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/women-india-tomorrow-part-4-podcast-transcript-116197">transcript of this episode here</a>, and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">Subscribe to our Anthill podcast newsletter to hear about new episodes as soon as they drop.</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: Piyal Adhikary/EPA</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a> all via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Kerala Love Jihad Case, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovd0iQhtMHA&feature=youtu.be&t=4">WION news clip</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p>🎧 Part 4 of India Tomorrow digs into what life is like for women in India.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkAnnabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158792019-04-30T10:43:50Z2019-04-30T10:43:50ZHow the world’s largest democracy casts its ballots<p><a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-india-election-explainer-20190401-story.html">About 600 million Indian citizens</a> are expected to cast their votes over <a href="https://eci.gov.in/general-election/general-elections-2019/">a period of 39 days</a> ending May 19, in the ongoing election for their country’s parliament. There are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/16/asia/india-election-numbers-intl/index.html">roughly 900 million eligible voters</a>, and the country has typically seen <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-23/biggest-round-of-voting-to-see-bjp-chief-make-debut-india-votes">about two-thirds</a> of them turn out to polling places. </p>
<p>I have been working on the security of electronic voting systems for more than 15 years, and, along with other colleagues, have been interested in understanding how a nation can tally that many votes cast over such a long period. India uses a <a href="https://eci.gov.in/files/file/8756-status-paper-on-evm-edition-3">domestically designed and manufactured electronic voting machine</a> – as many as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/04/13/world/asia/ap-as-india-remote-voting.html">4 million of them</a> at <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2019/04/indian-elections-190410185739389.html">1 million polling places</a>, at least some in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/election-workers-in-india-traveled-300-miles-over-4-days-to-set-up-a-polling-booth--for-one-voter/2019/04/17/44b4eb46-5bb1-11e9-98d4-844088d135f2_story.html">extremely</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/04/23/world/asia/23reuters-india-election-lone-voter.html">remote</a> locations. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=687&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=687&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=687&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=863&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=863&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271220/original/file-20190426-194637-a2b27o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=863&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Different areas of India vote on seven different days, over the course of a 39-day election period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2019_Lok_Sabha_Election_Schedule.svg">Furfur, translated by RaviC/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first version of the Indian electronic voting machine debuted in the <a href="https://eci.gov.in/faqs/evm/general-qa/electronic-voting-machine-r2/">state election in Kerala</a> in 1982. Now they’re used in elections throughout the country, which happen on different days in different areas.</p>
<h2>How does it work?</h2>
<p>When a voter arrives at the polling place, she presents a <a href="https://eci.gov.in/files/file/9367-photo-voter-slips-not-to-be-valid-as-stand-alone-identification-document-for-voting/">photo ID</a> and the poll officer checks that she is on the electoral roll. When it’s her turn to vote, a polling official uses an electronic voting machine’s control unit to unlock its balloting unit, ready to accept her vote.</p>
<p>The balloting unit has a very simple user interface: a series of buttons with candidate names and symbols. To vote, the voter simply presses the button next to the candidate of her choice.</p>
<p>After each button press, a printer <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/what-is-vvpat/articleshow/68683682.cms">prints out the voter’s choice on paper</a> and displays it to the voter for a few seconds, so the person may verify that the vote was recorded correctly. Then the paper is dropped into a locked storage box.</p>
<p><a href="https://eci.gov.in/faqs/evm/general-qa/electronic-voting-machine-r2/">The whole system</a> runs on a battery, so it does not need to be plugged in.</p>
<p>When it’s time for the polling place to close at the end of the voting day, each electronic voting machine device and paper-record storage box is sealed with wax and tape bearing the signatures of representatives of the various candidates in that election, and stored under armed guard.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270504/original/file-20190423-175510-1kusqa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman tests an electronic voting machine in India in advance of that country’s national elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/India-Elections/dd6866c05c9948b596536dc91d5a99db/4/0">AP Photo/Manish Swarup</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After the election period is over and it’s time to tally the votes, the electronic voting machines are brought out, the seals opened and the vote counts for each control unit are read out from its display board. Election workers hand-tally these individual machine totals to obtain the election results for each constituency.</p>
<h2>Security protections – and concerns</h2>
<p>The Indian electronic voting machine primarily runs on specialized hardware and firmware, unlike the voting machines used in the U.S., which are software-intensive. It is intended for the single purpose of voting and specially designed for that, rather than relying on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/aging-voting-machines-threaten-election-integrity-54523">standard operating system like Windows</a>, which needs to be regularly updated to patch detected security vulnerabilities.</p>
<p>Each machine requires only a connection between a balloting unit and a control unit; there are no provisions to connect an electronic voting machine to a computer network, much less the internet – including wirelessly.</p>
<p>This design does offer some protections against possible tampering with how votes are recorded and tallied. The Election Commission of India has repeatedly claimed that the <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/evms-tamper-proof-machines-used-for-local-body-polls-not-our-responsibility-eci/articleshow/58092072.cms">electronic voting machines are tamper-proof</a>. However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/1866307.1866309">a scholarly study has demonstrated</a> there are ways to rig the machines. In particular, the simplicity of the design allows for simple attacks, such as <a href="http://amaldev.blog/hacking-indian-evms/">intercepting and modifying the signal</a> carried over the machine’s cable.</p>
<p>The Election Commission has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46987319">not made public any independent security evaluations</a>, so it’s unclear exactly what is – or isn’t – possible. Parties that <a href="https://scroll.in/article/832003/the-great-evm-debate-convincing-the-losers-that-they-lost">lose elections</a> often <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/election-integrity/266878">suspect malfeasance</a> and <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/first-evm-experiment-fiasco-led-to-ban-in-india-728958.html">question the equipment</a>.</p>
<h2>Manufacturing the machines</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://scroll.in/article/834553/hacking-evms-the-ec-has-issued-a-challenge-it-must-first-accept-the-challenge-it-faces">I and others have observed</a>, when the machines are being made, there are a number of opportunities for someone to physically tamper with an electronic voting machine in ways that preelection device testing might not detect. The machines’ software is designed, written and tested at <a href="https://eci.gov.in/files/file/8756-status-paper-on-evm-edition-3/">two electronics companies owned by the government of India</a>: Bharat Electronics Limited and Electronics Corporation of India Limited. The chips for the machines are manufactured outside India. In earlier versions of the machine, the chip manufacturer also wrote the machine code into the chip; today the electronics companies do it themselves.</p>
<p>At any time during manufacture, testing and maintenance, it may be possible to <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/interview-with-george-washington-university-professor-poorvi-vora-on-evm-security/article18451662.ece">introduce counterfeit chips</a> or swap out other components that could let hackers alter the results.</p>
<p>The Election Commission of India argues that any manipulation or error would be detected because the electronic voting machine is tested frequently and candidate representatives have opportunities to <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/how-safe-is-an-evm-election-commissions-10-step-process-to-secure-voting-machines/articleshow/58611014.cms">participate in mock elections</a> immediately before a machine is used in a real election. However, it is possible to make changes that will not be detected. Testing can reveal only some problems, and the absence of problems during testing does not mean that problems do not exist.</p>
<h2>Auditing the machines’ results</h2>
<p>There is, however, a mechanism for detecting attacks – that printed-out paper bearing the vote and stored securely with the electronic equipment. A <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/north/story/supreme-court-asks-election-commission-to-introduce-paper-trail-in-evms-213615-2013-10-08">2013 Supreme Court directive</a> asked the Election Commission to create that process to <a href="https://theconversation.com/paper-trails-and-random-audits-could-secure-all-elections-dont-save-them-just-for-recounts-in-close-races-94243">protect the integrity of the balloting</a> process. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270524/original/file-20190423-175524-1iowuif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Indian election official displays a sample paper record of an electronic ballot during a demonstration of how the equipment works.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/India-Elections/afda1b6a8547489a946a6d63242a2955/26/0">AP Photo/Manish Swarup</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/supreme-court-election-commission-increase-vvpat-verification-evm-1496819-2019-04-08">In each constituency, five electronic voting machines</a> will have their results audited by comparing a manual count of the printouts with the electronic tallies. (This means about 1% or 2% of each constituency’s machines will be tested.) Opposition parties have asked the Supreme Court to order <a href="https://indianexpress.com/elections/opposition-comes-together-on-vvpat-says-will-go-to-supreme-court-again-5675583/">audits of half of all electronic voting machines</a>, but that may not happen with this year’s election.</p>
<p>While the electronic voting machine system is useful and functional, officials and observers shouldn’t assume there’s no way to tamper with the results. The Election Commission should certainly continue to improve testing and provide public reports of independent testing. However, because no technology can be tamper-proof, each election outcome should be <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.03108">verified by a manual audit</a>, to ensure that the results are correct, whatever they may be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Poorvi Vora receives funding from the National Science Foundation and has received funding from the Maryland Procurement Office in the past. She is affiliated with Verified Voting and the Election Verification Network. </span></em></p>Explaining the equipment and the process by which hundreds of millions of ballots are collected and counted in India.Poorvi Vora, Professor of Computer Science, George Washington UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1157332019-04-23T15:45:55Z2019-04-23T15:45:55ZIndia Tomorrow part 3: Kashmir<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269984/original/file-20190418-28084-nqn8uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As campaigning was gearing up for the 2019 Indian elections, there was a dangerous escalation in the long-simmering conflict between India and Pakistan. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/indian-security-forces-killed-kashmir-blast-reports-190214110644498.html">An attack</a> on an Indian military convoy in Pulwama in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in February 2019 killed more than 40 security personnel. </p>
<p>After a Pakistani-based militant group <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47249982">claimed responsibility</a>, India responded by <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47366718">launching air strikes</a> against suspected militant targets across the border in Pakistan and the world worried about the risk of war between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The tension eventually diffused, but it was a stark reminder of the ongoing conflict and what it means for India. </p>
<p>In the third episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a>, a series from The Conversation’s podcast The Anthill, we focus on Kashmir: its history, the lives of its people, and the conflict over its future.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b910?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p>Kashmir has been the cause of tension between Pakistan and India since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-partition-of-india-happened-and-why-its-effects-are-still-felt-today-81766">Partition of India</a> in 1947. Sarah Ansari, a historian at Royal Holloway, University of London, explains what happened during Partition and why Jammu and Kashmir became a source of conflict. We also explore the significance of Article 370, the part of the Indian constitution which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir – and why some Indians <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/bjp-manifesto-2019-no-article-370-article-35a-1496655-2019-04-08">want to scrap it</a>. </p>
<p>Ather Zia, an anthropologist at the University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, explains what Kashmir means to her, and what life is like for Kashmiris today. “It’s my homeland and it’s also a place which is an open prison currently because of the situation that is prevailing,” she says. “People are living, but it’s under heavy repression.” She explains how her research is showing many Kashmiris have a long-held desire for independence. </p>
<p>We also find out what has happened in Kashmir since 2014 when Narendra Modi became prime minister of India, and his BJP party entered into a ruling coalition in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Sita Bali, a lecturer in international relations at Staffordshire University, says she thinks that the escalation – and subsequent de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan – could <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-and-pakistans-escalating-conflict-will-benefit-narendra-modi-ahead-of-elections-112570">benefit Modi</a> in the 2019 elections. And she explains what the nuclear element of the ongoing conflict means for the region: “This Pakistan problem, or the Kashmir problem, whichever way you choose to look at it, has always stood in the way of India’s relations in the whole region.”</p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-tomorrow-part-3-podcast-transcript-115732">transcript of this episode</a> here, and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">Subscribe to our Anthill podcast newsletter to hear about new episodes as soon as they drop.</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-mountain-view-sonamarg-jammu-kashmir-657391570?src=iKqyP7mSQFggecLhR1fF8A-1-0">khlongwangchao via Shutterstock</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a> all via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Archive news clips:</strong></p>
<p><em>Hum kya chahty Azadi (Kahmir), <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGcBZVCBSDQ">Mohtsim Billah</a></em></p>
<p><em>Narendra Modi’s first visit to Jammu and Kashmir as PM, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBp9QVBdPFc">Times Now</a></em></p>
<p><em>Kashmir witnesses worst violence in six years, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQXa6VS3Dts">Al Jazeera English</a></em></p>
<p><em>India Cheers Return Of Air Force Pilot Abhinandan Varthaman, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxnMK3Xb73U">NDTV</a></em> </p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115733/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p>We focus on Kashmir in the third part of our India Tomorrow podcast series: its history, the lives of its people, and the conflict over its future.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkAnnabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1157322019-04-23T15:45:51Z2019-04-23T15:45:51ZKashmir: India Tomorrow part 3 podcast transcript<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270434/original/file-20190423-175524-3k25ny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-mountain-view-sonamarg-jammu-kashmir-657391570?src=iKqyP7mSQFggecLhR1fF8A-1-0">khlongwangchao via Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is a transcript of part three of The Anthill’s podcast series, India Tomorrow. <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-3-kashmir-115733">Listen to the full episode here </a> and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b910?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Gemma Ware</strong>: So what is Kashmir, what’s it like and what does it mean to you?</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ather-zia-725152">Ather Zia</a></strong>: Kashmir to me means home, which is where I was brought up. It’s my homeland. And it’s also a place which is an open prison currently because of the situation that is prevailing. And the situation is that of an occupation that Indian military has imposed on the region since 1947. And since 1989 what’s happened is that there is direct military violence that is exacerbated each year. People are living, but it’s under heavy repression.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: This is Ather Zia, an assistant professor of anthropology and gender studies at the University of Northern Colorado, Greeley. She spoke to our producer Gemma Ware.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong> When you walk the expanse of Kashmir, there is no road, there is no alley, there is no street where you cannot be stopped.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Since 1990, the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, which Ather calls Indian-administered Kashmir, has been under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. This is a law which was introduced after an insurgency began in 1989. Ather says the act gives the Indian military sweeping powers over property and life. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So anyone is a suspect at any point in time and can be killed, can be disappeared, can be arrested, can be tortured without any accountability and that is what has been happening.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Ather is a founding member of a group of scholars called the Critical Kashmir Studies Collective, which looks at Kashmir from the viewpoint of Kashmiris themselves. She studies daily life there.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So living in Kashmir is very very difficult because it’s not a regular, normal life. When you live under militarisation, you’re under constant surveillance. I might give you a small example that if guests come into your home, you have to declare who is coming and you have to go to the local police station. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Everyone is required to carry an ID card with them, and can be asked to produce it at any moment. There is no privacy, even in your home, Ather says. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: The government forces can barge into your home at any given point in time, say that you are under suspicion, or we suspect something, or there’s actually something happening. So there is no privacy. There is surveillance. And someone is watching you 24/7. And then also the limits and constraints to movement but also to life and to expression.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>India Tomorrow intro music</em></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: You’re listening to India tomorrow, a series from The Anthill podcast, brought to you by The Conversation. I’m Annabel Bligh from The Conversation.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/indrajit-roy-312163">Indrajit Roy</a></strong>: And I’m Indrajit Roy, lecturer in politics at the University of York.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: In this episode, part 3 of our series on India, we’re going to be focusing on Kashmir. Its history, its people, and the conflict over its future. To follow this episode, you don’t need to have heard the first two parts of our India tomorrow series. But we do hope you’ll check them out – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-fake-news-and-the-battle-for-information-113579">first is on fake news and the battle over information in India</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">second is on the politics of hindu nationalism</a>, which has been central to the BJP government’s platform.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: We weren’t initially planning to do an episode on Kashmir. But as we were putting this series together, Kashmir hit international headlines after a suicide bomb attack there killed 40 Indian security forces, and the Indian military responded by bombing militant targets in Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Yes, we’ll be hearing more about that later. But first, we thought it was important to find out how we got here and where the conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir came from.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Kashmir is a region on the border with India and Pakistan, divided between the two countries, but claimed in full by both. To understand the roots of the Kashmir conflict, we need to go back to the 1940s and the violence, bloodshed and heartache of what’s known as the partition – the sudden and cataclysmic division of Britain’s Indian empire into the two separate independent states of India and Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-ansari-393469">Sarah Ansari</a></strong>: The speed with which independence took place had a lot to do with the changed position of Britain after the Second World War. But partition took place because of the inability of the main parties involved – the British, the Congress and the Muslim League – to reach a compromise solution that would keep India united at independence. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: This is Sarah Ansari, professor of history at Royal Holloway University of London, who researches the history and the legacy of partition. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: The decision to grant independence to British India was finally agreed in February 1947, with the proposed date by which this should have happened being June 1948. However, in June 1947 plans were speeded up considerably and the date for independence was brought forward to August 15 1947. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Decisions had to be made very quickly, Sarah says. Including where the dividing line between the two countries would be. A British judge called Cyril Radcliffe was brought out to India to draw it up, but he only had a few weeks to identify and secure agreement from all sides. And he later admitted he’d relied on out-of-date maps and census materials. The result was that two key provinces, Punjab and Bengal were each split in two. Sarah says that religious concerns were central to partition and what happened after it. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: Large numbers of Indian Muslims felt sufficiently concerned about what the future political arrangements in India would mean for them as a perpetual minority, let’s say, within this new political unit. And it was that concern that the Muslim League was able to tap into and win support from in its negotiations with the British and the Congress over what would happen at independence. However we must be careful that we don’t assume that firstly all Muslims in India before August 1947 supported partition. That was definitely not the case. And it was only very late in the day that the Muslim League was able to win support from majority Muslim provinces for this, I suppose, kind of negotiated outcome.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: So, Indrajit, it wasn’t simply a case of a Muslim-Hindu divide? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: No. As Sarah says, it was definitely not the case that all Muslims in India supported partition. It’s very hard of course to know the exact numbers that supported it. Many Muslims, chose to stay in India and not to migrate at all to Pakistan which is why today they make up such a substantial minority of about 14% of India’s population, according to the 2011 census. What we do know is that partition brought with it a huge amount of uncertainty and violence in a summer of intense confusion and human suffering. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: We don’t know how many people precisely migrated, but maybe as many as 14m people uprooted themselves and crossed what they thought were going to be the new borders in order to reach a place of greater safety. So that’s probably still the largest migration that the world has yet seen. And as part of that, large numbers of people died – maybe as many as a million. I mean the figures are not precise because of the, I suppose, confusion of the of the time itself.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: But what about Jammu and Kashmir? At the time of partition the area was a princely state. Under the plans drawn up by the British, princely states would initially have the right to remain independent, or to join India or Pakistan. It was up to each ruler to decide the future of their territory and its people. Sarah explains. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: In the main, this proved relatively unproblematic, especially where there was a clear, as people describe it, geographic compulsion. Or where the wishes of the ruler and his subjects were straightforwardly aligned in terms of religious identity. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Sarah says that, in the end, those princely states that had perhaps considered remaining independent, found it impossible in practice to do so. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: So the vast majority of princely states acceded to either India or to Pakistan by the agreed deadline. But problems arose where or when the ruler and his subjects disagreed. And so Jammu and Kashmir was one of a small number of princely states where this proved to be the case.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: The ruler at the time, Maharajah Hari Singh, was a Hindu, but the population of Jammu and Kahsmir had an overall Muslim majority. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: The Maharajah initially chose to remain independent, signed what was known as a standstill agreement, at least with Pakistan. It hadn’t managed to do that with India, which kind of paused the process until a decision had been made. But protest uprisings, combined with tribal military-backed incursions from Pakistan, or the Pakistani side of the new border, led him, the Maharajah that is, to request intervention from the authorities in Delhi. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: What happened next is controversial, says Sarah, because there is disagreement over whether the Maharajah signed what was called the instrument of accession to join with India before or after India sent in troops. In any case, Pakistan contested Kashmir’s accession to India and a war ensued. India’s prime minister at the time, Jawaharlal Nehru referred the Kashmir issue to the UN, which got involved to try and find a way through the conflict. A ceasefire was agreed in early 1949, which created the ceasefire line, later known as the “line of control”. That’s the dividing line between Pakistan and India in Kashmir that still exists today. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: The outcome was, in due course, that the western portions of his territory, Jammu Kashmir, came under Pakistani control – so today known as Azad Kashmir and also Gilgit-Baltistan – while the remainder constituted the Jammu and Kashmir state as it later came to be known that remained within the Indian framework.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Sarah says that the fact India and Pakistan found themselves fighting a war over Kashmir so soon after independence had significant long-term consequences for both countries. From the get go, they were on a war footing. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: It meant on the one hand that right from the outset Pakistan spent a huge proportion of its of its revenue, its GDP, on military-related development which I think hindered all sorts of other kind of state building programmes. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The border tensions with Pakistan have also contributed to India’s rationale for keeping such a large army of around 1.4m active service personnel. In 2017, according to the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/india-worlds-biggest-defence-military-spender/">Stockholm International Peace Research Institute</a>, India spent US$63.9 billion on defence, making it the fifth-highest spending military budget in the world, behind the US, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: But what about Kashmiris? This is the question around which Ather Zia has focused her research. For Kashmiris, she says, history is ever present, and dominates the way they think about the future. A central issue, the bone of contention as it were, is India’s promise of a plebiscite, to the people of Jammu and Kashmir – a referendum on their future.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And the fact is that the plebiscite has not been conducted so far and people in every decade, in my field at least, Indian-administered Kashmir, have been seeking that plebiscite one way or the other. But what has happened since 1947 is that the dialogue or the narrative around plebiscite got has gotten really, really diluted.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: India’s offer of a plebiscite was subject to Pakistan withdrawing troops from the western portion of Jammu and Kashmir. The ceasefire terms mandated that both sides withdraw their troops from the state. Neither side agreed, effectively killing the idea of a plebiscite. Elections were held in 1951 to convene a constituent assembly for the state, something like its own local parliament.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And at that time you have evidence and you have the UN telling India that you cannot do this you can’t hold these elections because the case is sub judice. India responds saying that we are doing this for temporary governance and plebiscite is on the table still.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: As a matter of fact, journalists and academics covering that period suggest that those elections were completely rigged in favour of the Congress Party’s ally in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference, that was keen for the state to join India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Contrary to a wider Indian narrative, which argues that Kashmiris only began wanting independence in 1989 when the armed insurgency began, Ather stresses that Kashmiris had actually been resisting for decades – even before partition in 1947. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So we have to understand, while India was fighting for its independence, Kashmir was fighting for its own independence from local tyrannical monarchy. And Kashmiris were fighting what they at that time called “quit Kashmir”. So they were asking the monarch to quit Kashmir and to establish a sovereign democracy. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: But despite this much longer history of resistance, and despite Kashmiris’ desire for a referendum on their future, it has never happened. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So India kind of has sidelined and it has pushed the idea of plebiscite and referendum on the backburner, saying you know we have been doing elections since 1951. So the plebiscite is gone now. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Ather is about to publish an edited volume of research on how Kashmiris in every decade since partition have kept on talking about the promise of a referendum. Today, that desire for independence has not abated, she says. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And what other colleagues of mine who work in the same area have found, and what also some surveys and different researchers who have worked for some media groups have found, is that more than 70% of the people of the region support independence and there is a section which supports a merger with Pakistan. And of course there are people who are collaborating with India currently and who are running the pro-India politics and who are also pushing for integration with India to the resistance of the masses. So what we find is that there is a lot of sentiment for independence or what Kashmiris call Azadi which is the Urdu and Kashmiri word for freedom. And freedom for Kashmiris means freedom from India on this side of the line of control, where I work, the Indian administered Kashmir. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Ather says history is very present in the everyday lives of Kashmiris. Even the children. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: If you ask any child across the world like, “What do you want?” They might want toys. But one of the major slogans in Kashmir is Hum Kya Chahte, which means, “What do you want?” And people say, “Azadi.” So that’s kind of a rhetorical thing. And even the little kids say like, “What do we want? We want Azadi.” So it’s become a cultural motif. The resistance in Kashmir is very, very cultural. It’s woven into the daily life.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: The tragedy is that no one really pays attention to the historic political struggle of Kashmiris and everything goes to this post-colonial idiom where you look at big countries and you think about their territorial dispute not thinking about whose territory are we talking about. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: In <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">our last episode</a> we heard about the ideology of Hindutva, and how central the idea of a Hindu nation is to the BJP, the party of Narendra Modi and the family of organisations of which it is a part. Such Hindu nationalist ideology impacts the BJP’s position regarding Kashmir – and Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sita-bali-155071">Sita Bali</a></strong>: The BJP has its roots in a rightwing movement called the Jahn Sang which was present during just after partition and it also traces its roots back to some of the more right wing and the more stridently Hindu voices at the time of partition, like the Hindu Mahasabha.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: This is Sita Bali, a lecturer in international relations at Staffordshire University. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: So for the BJP and for that whole group of organisations, in a sense, partition is a kind of incomplete process because while most of the Muslims of India have not left to go live in Pakistan, most of the Hindus of Pakistan have come to live in India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: A particular issue is around what’s called Article 370, part of the Indian constitution which gives a special status to Kashmir. Indrajit, why is it so controversial to some Indians?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: That’s a tricky one actually. Article 370 of the Indian Constitution allows the state of Jammu and Kashmir a greater degree of autonomy compared to other Indian states. The article says that the Indian government has control over defence, external affairs, currency and communication, but on all other matters the state of Jammu and Kashmir can take its own decisions. Indian laws can only be applied to the state with the agreement of the state’s legislative assembly. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: For example, the Indian government cannot alter the boundaries of the state or make new provinces, as it can with other Indian states. Of course, in all this, we shouldn’t forget that people are constantly moving about. There’s a steady circulation of “ordinary” people, if you will, between Kashmir and the rest of India. Kashmiri students study in various Indian cities. Labour migrants work in Kashmir. As it happens, my own research on labour migration in India suggests that labourers from Bihar state in eastern India have never felt particularly discriminated against when they go to work in Jammu and Kashmir.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: So in terms of this, Article 370, gives Kashmir special status, do some people and politicians in India want to get rid of it altogether?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Kind of. Now, to be honest, the Indian government has been quietly eroding the special status provided under Article 370 for a long time, not just under the BJP but also under the Congress. But the BJP would like to see the article completely scrapped as it considers it to be a barrier to the complete integration of Jammu and Kashmir into India. And as you can imagine, political parties in the state are vehemently opposed to it. They say, and from a legal point of view they may have a point, that Article 370 is the link between India and Jammu and Kashmir. If you get rid of Article 370, then the legal basis of Jammu and Kashmir joining India is scrapped. That’s one reason most political parties in India tend to keep quiet about Article 370. Even one of the BJP’s own allies recently warned against removing the special status for the state. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: OK, so that’s the legal position. But what about feelings of security? How serious a security threat is Kashmir to India? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Look, Kashmir is not the only insurgency that the Indian government confronts. You know, there have been insurgencies in the north east, in central and eastern India where the Maoists have been operating for decades. But the situation in Kashmir presents a special threat because of the ways it has been linked to Islamic terrorism.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: And why’s that? Where’s this link to Islamic terrorism come from? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Here we have to zoom out of Kashmir a bit and look at the region more broadly since the 1980s. Now you remember the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? And remember that Islamic freedom fighters were drafted by the United States to wage a jihad against the Soviets. Pakistan of course gladly hosted these guys because it meant aid and weapons. The Soviet defeat emboldened the jihadists, and Pakistan happily directed them towards its old friend India. The infiltration of the jihadi element was new and unprecedented. The Kashmiri struggle against Indian high-handedness had so far been peaceful. But it took a violent turn in 1988, after armed groups began to exploit local resentment – and make no mistake, there was enough grounds for local resentment – against what now came to be called Indian occupation. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Ok. So actually the last time the BJP was in power in India, under the prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, there was a considerable escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan. Sita Bali told us that when Vajpayee initially came to power, there had been some hope he may have been able to make peace. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: And there was a time when people really believed – both in India and Pakistan – that because the BJP were the more extreme element in India, in terms of their hard line on Pakistan and on Kashmir, that actually if peace was to be made between India and Pakistan on this matter that it was more likely to come from the BJP because they were the more extreme. I mean, if the Congress made some sort of peace, the BJP would come in and say it wasn’t good enough for them. Whereas a peace made by the more extreme right will likely satisfy everybody. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: When a bus service was opened between India and Pakistan, Vajpayee was on the first service. There was a lot of optimism. But Sita says all that soon dissipated after it emerged that Pakistan had been preparing for what’s been called the Kargil invasion, a border dispute high up in the mountains in an area called the Siachin Glacier. The Kargil conflict was made all the more dangerous because both countries had tested nuclear weapons in 1998, the year before. For India, it was a hard fight to win. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: This was in a sense India’s first TV war. And so you saw people being killed up there of course and then you saw the body bags come down and be put into boxes and boxes covered with the Indian flag then being dispatched to all corners of India. You know all over the place. And so there is a real kind of build up of nationalism in India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The Kargil conflict started in May and ended in June 1999 when India’s military forced a withdrawal of Pakistani militants back across the line of control. But it left an uneasy sense of peace, and since then there have been continuous skirmishes across the line of control. </p>
<p>So let’s fast forward to 2014, and the election of Narendra Modi as prime minister of India. Sita says that Modi came to power saying he’d be much stronger on the Kashmir issue.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: So of course removing Article 370 was a key BJP manifesto promise because of, you know, the idea in the BJP that this article was a barrier to the state’s integration into India. But Modi also promised that he would defend the interests of Kashmiri Pandits, the valley’s Hindu minority that had been forced to flee to other parts of the country when militancy took over the state in 1989. Modi said that at the very least he would ensure the rehabilitation of the Pandits within the state. The BJP was of course exploiting the emotive issue of Kashmiri Pandits for its own electoral advantage because five years down the line, it has not had much to show for itself.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: After Modi was elected, he went to Kashmir, to see how people there would react to him. Kashmir went into shutdown. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: Because what he was suggesting essentially was that any problems in Kashmir were largely to do with Pakistan, that Kashmir was an integral part of India. There was no recognition for the fact that Kashmir has a special status in the Indian constitution; that it was India’s Muslim majority region. There was no other in India like this and that therefore the special status meant something to the, particularly, the Muslims of Kashmir.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: To be fair, Modi did seem to strike a chord with the electorate in Kashmir. The BJP made some noise about reviewing the act which gives the Indian military sweeping powers over people’s lives that Ather spoke of earlier. Elections to the state assembly were held in December 2014, soon after the BJP stormed to power in Delhi. Turnout was a record 65%, among the highest in India and certainly the highest in the state since militancy erupted in 1989. </p>
<p>As it happened, the BJP did rather well in these elections, especially in the Jammu region, which has a Hindu majority. Another state party called the People’s Democratic Party, or PDP, won the majority of seats in the Kashmir valley, which has a Muslim majority. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: And so then what happened?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: The negotiations that followed were fun to watch. On the one side, you had the PDP, you see, which was committed to keeping Article 370; party leaders had sometimes been called “soft separatists”. On the other hand, you had the BJP, which you know, has always been in favour of scrapping Article 370. So, thanks to some skilful negotiations, and you know out-of-the-box thinking, you had these two parties with opposing ideologies tied together in a coalition. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: So people were quite optimistic, because you know with the BJP that if they’re in power at the centre and they’re in power at the state assembly level then you’ve got a better chance of getting things through from the state assembly to the centre and back. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: But Sita says it turned out the BJP didn’t really have a plan for Kashmir. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: The BJP’s plan was non-existent in that they decided that they would treat Kashmir purely as a law and order problem – as a security problem.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: In July 2016, mass demonstrations erupted in the Kashmir valley after the leader of an armed group was killed by Indian security forces. The protesters were met with force. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Today, Ather Zia says that daily human rights violations in Kashmir are at an all time high. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: In June 2018, the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/IN/DevelopmentsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf">published a report</a> on Indian-administered Kashmir as well as Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgut and Balistan talking about the human rights violations in the region. What the report established was that since 2016 the human rights record of the Indian Army has really touched an all time low.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The UN report was the first ever on human rights violations in Kashmir. It was carried out remotely as investigators weren’t given full access by either India or Pakistan. The authors cited civil society reports that 145 civilians were killed by security forces in Jammu and Kashmir between mid-July 2016 and the end of March 2018. Ather says that while cases of Kashmiris “disappearing” may have lessened in recent years, other human rights violations have increased. In particular, she points to large numbers of people being blinded by government forces.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: Basically the world’s first mass blindness happened in Kashmir because the government forces are using shotgun pellets, which is also erroneously called pellet guns and it kind of makes the Western audience think that it’s very small something like a BB gun of some sort, but this is actually a shotgun and it fires pellets very fast.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The UN cited official figures reporting that 17 people were killed by these shotgun pellets between July 2016 and August 2017. And more than 6,000 people were injured by the pellets between 2016 and March 2017. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: In late 2017, the BJP coalition with Kashmir’s PDP collapsed, and the state was governed directly from Delhi. Ather says the BJP is now openly attacking those parts of the Indian constitution that protected Kashmir’s autonomy and special status. For instance, there’s currently a case before the Indian Supreme Court aimed at getting rid of Article 35a.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: That’s an article that kind of ensures Kashmir’s territorial autonomy which means that people who are not Kashmiri residents do not have the right to franchise, and they don’t have right to property inside Kashmir. So it looks like a very discriminatory act and it has also been portrayed as a gender discrimination act. But the fact is that this is a protection of a territorial sovereignty of a region to which you have a certain access. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Ather says Kashmiris are still anxiously waiting for news from the supreme court. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And they are really really worried that it might be taken away from them. And there are political analysts inside Kashmir who have called this demographic terrorism. That if this is taken away and there is an influx of Indian businesses and Indian, you know, just citizens inside Kashmir and taking the property and you know all sorts of demographic changes it is going to change the situation inside Kashmir. And it is going to kind of tip the scales in favour of India. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: In early 2019, the situation in Kashmir suddenly made news around the world again. A suicide bomb attack in mid-February killed 40 Indian paramilitaries travelling in a convoy in Jammu and Kashmir at a place called Pulwama. A Pakistan-based military group, Jaish-e-Mohammed, claimed responsibility. A few days later, Indian planes launched strikes on what it said were Pakistani militant bases on the Pakistani side of the border in Balakot. An Indian pilot whose plane was shot down, was returned by the Pakistanis a few days later. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: Not only did it de-escalate the situation but it also, I think handed a bit of a publicity coup or made Pakistan look very much the more magnanimous, the more peace seeking, whereas it made India look like India was more gung-ho and warlike. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: We asked Sita Bali what this escalation – and subsequent de-escalation – of the conflict with Pakistan means for Modi politically, in the run up to the elections. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: I think that, there being a tense situation with Pakistan where Modi can stand up to them and can look tough and look hard and so on, is very helpful to his election prospects, because it plays into that sense that the BJP and Modi are the tough guys, the Congress is kind of weak and wimpy. And you know they’ve been in power for so many years and they’ve never sorted it out. So I think it’s going to help Modi if the situation in Kashmir is not peaceful or is not settled for the moment. And it isn’t.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: It’s worth remembering also that the nuclear issue is always there in the backdrop of the tension between India and Pakistan. Both countries have nuclear weapons, but while India has declared that it won’t use them in the first instance, Pakistan hasn’t. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: Well, logically it should actually rule out things like an Indian armed response to an act of terrorism within Kashmir. Because on one argument you could say that because Pakistan has not committed itself to no first use, it has increased its ability to do things that might annoy India, and to have some cover, because India will think very hard before responding militarily simply because Pakistan can escalate the problem at any time that it wants, without breaking any commitment that it has made in the past. So arguably this works to Pakistan’s advantage. </p>
<p>However, I also think that in the end if it came to it, a commitment that India has given to the international community, if we ever came to a point where India genuinely believed that it was in their interest to use that nuclear weapon first, never mind that it meant breaking a commitment, I think that they would probably do it, particularly under a BJP government. </p>
<p>So I think at the moment in a way what we’ve got is a situation where both sides’ nuclear weapons are cancelling each other out and we are going ahead with a conflict, or behaving in a conflict, very much like the nuclear weapons don’t exist. Except that both countries are quite careful not to escalate too much.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Sita says that while both sides are constrained by their nuclear capabilities, India is more constrained because it sees itself as a more responsible player on the international stage. But there is a wider regional dynamic at play too.</p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: This Pakistan problem, or the Kashmir problem, whichever way you choose to look at it, has always stood in the way of India’s relations in the whole region. Because in the whole region you have to think of, first, all the countries of South Asia. And India is surrounded by these countries. It has a common border with so many of the countries of south Asia, none of whom have a common border with each other, and all of whom are far far smaller than India. So India is already susceptible to the perception that because she is the biggest, which she is by a long shot, that she is a bully in the region. And that Pakistan, in the regional balance of power, Pakistan refusing to accept Indian hegemony is one of the things that, quietly, all of the other countries of South Asia would support. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: And then there is China. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: China is an established, longstanding and close ally of Pakistan. And they have supported Pakistan. Even right now, for example, over the issue of declaring the Jaish-e-Mohammed a terrorist group and banning them and freezing their assets and all the usual things that happen in the UN when somebody is declared a terrorist group, China is resisting. And it’s taking Pakistan’s side in this argument.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Our producer Gemma Ware put one last question to Sita, about how concerned she is now, after the Pulwama attack and Indian air strikes. </p>
<p><strong>Gemma Ware</strong>: So in terms of where we are now, are you worried? Is this a very concerning moment for you? You’ve been studying this region for a long time. Is this just part of the ebb and flow of, unfortunately what the Kashmir and the India-Pakistan conflict are? Or is this a particularly worrying moment for you? </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: No, I think Kargil was more serious than this. Because it was the first time we had been skirmishing after the establishing of nuclear weapons on both sides. What is worrying about this is not so much to do with Pakistan and nuclear weapons and so on, what is worrying about this at the moment is the future of Indian Kashmir. Because ultimately if the people of Indian Kashmir decide that they do not want to be a part of India then all bets are off in terms of what Pakistan will do as well. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: For Ather, the international attention on Kashmir once again takes the focus away from the suffering of the Kashmiris. Her collective of Kashmiri scholars have been trying to fight the notion that the Kashmir conflict is merely a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: That is an aspect. But it is also an issue of democratic sovereignty of a certain people and political consciousness, which has not only strengthened, but it has evolved and emerged in different ways over the last 70 years. </p>
<p>I kind of like to see it as that the Kashmiris are doing all the dying. This has been noted by many people before. And all we are talking about is India and Pakistan. So we have to see the human cost. Who is paying the human cost when the strikes were happening from India and Pakistan? And all of that is going on very recently. We kind of forgot in the middle that it was a Kashmiri who became the human bomb. And the question was not asked like, what happened there? Why is Kashmir becoming a lab for making militants? Because there are no policies for a just peace.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: It’s their future, says Ather. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: Kashmiris are the most canny and most political of peoples. And if you go to any street corner you will see the most evolved narrative and political narrative on Kashmir from everyone. Because that’s what they live every day. And after what happened very recently there was some interest in, “hey, let’s think about what’s happening to Kashmiris”. But then after a while everything went back to thinking about how can we bring the two countries to the table. And the Kashmiris again got snowed under that narrative because it’s a post-colonial reality that we are thinking about big nation states and we’re not thinking about peoples, we’re not thinking about cultures. So that’s something that we need to keep in mind. We need to have the Kashmiri vantage. Without that everything is incomplete.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: That’s it for this episode of India Tomorrow from The Anthill. In our next episode, we’ll be looking at the changing role of women in Indian society. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/charu-gupta-725231">Charu Gupta</a></strong>: Love Jihad was actually a jihad against love. It was a war against love you know it was this kind of mythical and violent campaign. It was emotive. It was a political fantasy.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: That’s in part 4 of this series from The Anthill, India Tomorrow. Do subscribe to The Anthill podcast so you don’t miss out. You can also sign up to our Anthill newsletter, by clicking the link in the show notes. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: You can read more of The Conversation’s coverage of India by academics around the world on <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk">theconversation.com</a> or follow us on social media. If you’ve got any questions about issues we’ve been discussing in this series, please do get in touch via email on podcast@theconversation.com or on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/anthillpod">@anthillpod</a>. We’ll be putting your questions to a panel of academics we’re lining up to discuss the election results at the end of May. And you can find a transcript of this episode, and other episodes in this series, on <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk">theconversation.com</a>. </p>
<p>A big thanks to all the academics who spoke to us for this episode and to the journalism department at City University for letting us use their studios. The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and me, Annabel Bligh. Sound by Alex Portfelix.
Lastly, an extra big thanks to my co-host, Indrajit Roy. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Thanks Annabel. See you next week. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Thanks for listening. Goodbye.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
This is a transcript of episode three of The Anthill podcast series India Tomorrow on Kashmir.Annabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UKGemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1156732019-04-23T10:42:23Z2019-04-23T10:42:23ZIn India, WhatsApp is a weapon of antisocial hatred<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270156/original/file-20190419-28116-15hgsdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3699%2C2273&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smartphones are a conduit for misinformation about the Indian election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/India-Elections-Fake-News/1d566136267e44f8af5ed6ad5a5d967e/5/0">AP Photo/Manish Swarup</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A general election in India, the world’s most populous democracy, seems a theoretical impossibility. Collecting the votes of nearly a billion people across a staggeringly diverse subcontinent has for more than half a century faced challenges of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/election-workers-in-india-traveled-300-miles-over-4-days-to-set-up-a-polling-booth--for-one-voter/2019/04/17/44b4eb46-5bb1-11e9-98d4-844088d135f2_story.html">logistics</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/21/india-has-a-lesson-for-trump-national-emergencies-are-a-disaster-for-democracy/">politics</a>, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/10/inequality-in-india-oxfam-explainer/">economics</a>, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/1365317/Indias-brutal-history-of-assassinations-and-conflict.html">violence</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/opinion-why-criminalisation-of-politics-is-unlikely-to-stop-2985601.html">law</a>. </p>
<p>This year, a new challenge has arisen in the form of social media – specifically the text messaging app WhatsApp, owned by Facebook. Hate speech, disinformation and scary rumors on the platform are already responsible for violence and deaths in India. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270154/original/file-20190419-1403-o0op9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A line of people wait to vote in the Indian election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-India-Kashmir-Elections/0ba2c4a16ada4952b1828367012c07bd/3/0">AP Photo/Dar Yasin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I have been <a href="https://www.scu.edu/cas/communication/faculty/rohit-chopra/">studying the impact of the internet</a> on Indian political, cultural and social life for the better part of two decades. Under the strict protocols of the <a href="https://eci.gov.in/">Election Commission of India</a>, voting has proved one of the more <a href="https://scroll.in/article/911757/how-former-chief-election-commissioner-tn-seshan-tamed-the-criminalisation-of-indian-politics">robust signs of Indian democracy</a>. Voters turn out in large numbers, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-012-9115-6">particularly the poorer segments of the electorate</a>, making the process and its results a fascinating study and experiment in Indian politics. </p>
<p>The 2019 parliamentary elections, now underway, will show how social media affects Indian democratic life. They will also provide additional information about the nature of technological threats to democracy in general.</p>
<h2>Indian social media in 2014</h2>
<p>Two years before <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-russian-government-used-disinformation-and-cyber-warfare-in-2016-election-an-ethical-hacker-explains-99989">Russian troll farms infiltrated Facebook</a> in an attempt to <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/01/how-russia-helped-to-swing-the-election-for-trump">tilt the 2016 U.S. presidential election</a>, social media played a critical role in Indian politics. It helped the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/hindu-nationalist-narendra-modi-sworn-in-as-indias-prime-minister/2014/05/26/d6f9ba54-25a6-48ac-9693-932132416cf6_story.html">hard-line candidate for prime minister</a>, Narendra Modi, come to power, though in a different way than the U.S. experienced. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270164/original/file-20190419-28106-1vi53gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bharatiya Janata Party supporters rallied passionately in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/India-Elections/bbe95d58de234c30b711f095576c7283/4/0">AP Photo/Channi Anand</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In India, the Bharatiya Janata Party ran a <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/social-media-emerges-as-a-key-tool-in-indias-election/1931238.html">formidable social media campaign</a> on Facebook and, to a lesser extent, Twitter. The party’s online efforts complemented and supplemented its equally well-orchestrated campaign on the ground. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s trained social media teams, and a veritable army of enthusiastic volunteers, ensured that <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bjp-way-ahead-of-competition-on-social-media-in-2014-says-stanford-university-study/story-6Uq81HOwstzCwgCmiSyMWI.html">the party’s online presence</a> was much more active than its rivals.</p>
<p>The Bharatiya Janata Party’s information technology group, as well as the party’s supporters, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Congress-vs-BJP-The-curious-case-of-trolls-and-politics/articleshow/23970818.cms">exploited the political power of social media</a>. They unleashed an often abusive barrage of criticism at the Congress Party, then-incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other Bharatiya Janata Party opponents.</p>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2019 election, social media is being used in a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/11/tech/india-election-whatsapp-twitter-facebook/index.html">far uglier and more dangerous fashion</a>. The Bharatiya Janata Party even <a href="https://medium.com/disfact/narendra-modi-app-has-a-fake-news-problem-d60b514bb8f1">has its own official app</a>, which is <a href="https://qz.com/india/1534754/modis-namo-app-spreads-pro-bjp-fake-news-before-indian-elections/">rife with disinformation</a> and <a href="https://qz.com/india/1461262/indias-bjp-supporters-share-more-fake-news-than-others-says-bbc/">inflammatory propaganda</a> about non-Hindus, posted by party members and supporters. More broadly, WhatsApp is being used to disseminate rumors and disinformation to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/17/opinion/modi-india-election.html">spark fear among the populace</a>, particularly about people who are perceived as outsiders. </p>
<p>This connects with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s main message that Hindus should have first claim over India and that India should be a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/india-modi-culture/">culturally Hindu nation</a>, rather than a secular state governed by a diverse range of voices. The chief opposition, the Congress Party, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/fighting-whatsapp-disinformation-india-kerala-floods/569332/">seems to lack the Bharatiya Janata Party’s level</a> of reach and skills at weaponizing social media.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-fake-news-and-the-battle-for-information-113579">India Tomorrow part 1: fake news and the battle for information</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Threats of violence</h2>
<p>Online, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s <a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/india/bjps-troll-army-bullies-abuses-and-fights-dirty-with-narendra-modi-as-the-general-1.1541941374832">volunteer army of internet trolls</a> blurs lines between troublemakers, genuine supporters and party officials. Their collective intensity, especially about Hindu nationalism, has <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/ahead-of-general-election-possibility-of-communal-violence-in-india-us-spymaster-119012901238_1.html">put everyone on edge</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2019-election-crucial-india-history-181120160323155.html">about violence</a> – including social media platforms, law enforcement officials and ordinary citizens. </p>
<p>The danger is real. By one count, the use – or misuse – of WhatsApp has already <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/society/article/2187612/whatsapp-rumours-have-led-30-deaths-india-social-media">resulted in 30 deaths</a> in India. Many of these are not political events, but rather because of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44435127">fear of outsiders</a> spread through WhatsApp messages carrying <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/society/article/2154436/indias-lynching-app-who-using-whatsapp-murder-weapon">fabricated warnings about strangers</a> allegedly coming to rural communities to kidnap children. </p>
<p>It’s not clear yet whether WhatsApp’s remedial measures, such as <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/21/18191455/whatsapp-forwarding-limit-five-messages-misinformation-battle">blocking users from forwarding any single message more than five times</a>, will effectively counter the dissemination of dangerous and fake information. Earlier restrictions – including <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/20/17595478/whatsapp-message-forwarding-end-violent-lynching-india">limiting forwarding to 20 times</a> – did not.</p>
<h2>Getting benefits but avoiding responsibility</h2>
<p>Of course, media technologies do not make anything happen by themselves. Their effects depend on how they’re used. In the Indian context, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition government and its digital allies have <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/on-religion/the-violent-toll-of-hindu-nationalism-in-india">legitimized an unusually high degree of bigotry</a> and virulence against minorities, particularly Muslims and the members of the lowest caste, called Dalits. </p>
<p>As a result, it’s easy for party members and social media volunteers to use digital platforms like WhatsApp and Facebook to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/technology/india-elections-facebook.html">inflame sectarian sentiments</a>. In the run-up to the election, they have created a climate of <a href="https://www.newsmax.com/t/world/article/909746/162">general distrust</a>, fear and paranoia in which <a href="https://qz.com/india/1563318/indias-2019-election-is-threatened-by-fake-news-on-whatsapp/">disinformation</a> cannot be distinguished from credible facts.</p>
<p>My own research, <a href="https://harpercollins.co.in/book/the-virtual-hindu-rashtra/">explained in my forthcoming book</a>, suggests that the decentralized nature of online networks has allowed the Bharatiya Janata Party government to benefit from hateful and violent messages sent out by other hardline Hindu nationalist groups, while being able to avoid accountability or responsibility for those messages. It also enables the Bharatiya Janata Party to benefit politically from religious violence while at the same time diverting blame to WhatsApp or Facebook.</p>
<p>These developments in India raise deeper questions about the nature of social media communications. In particular, these abuses of social media may cause people to rethink the relationship between free speech – including forwarding messages from others – and violence. The outcome of the Indian election will be just one signal of how one society is beginning to wrestle with how new technologies are letting people reshape their lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115673/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rohit Chopra is affiliated with Avaaz.org (as a consultant).</span></em></p>India’s parliamentary elections, now underway, will show how social media is affecting Indian society and government.Rohit Chopra, Associate Professor of Communication, Santa Clara UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1154942019-04-16T12:20:08Z2019-04-16T12:20:08ZIndia Tomorrow part 2: the politics of Hindu nationalism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269295/original/file-20190415-147502-18q1mpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>When Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to victory in India’s 2014 elections, <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-05-16/its-landslide-hindu-nationalism-indias-election">much was made</a> of its Hindu nationalist agenda. After five years in office, some commentators now worry that the secular nature of Indian democracy is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-indias-hindu-nationalists-worship-israels-nation-state-model-111450">being eroded</a>. </p>
<p>In this, the second episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a>, a series from The Conversation’s podcast The Anthill, we look at the history of Hindu nationalism, its role in India today, and its influence on the politics of the BJP.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b911?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p>We speak to Shalini Sharma, a historian at Keele University, about the history of Hindu nationalism and the ideology of Hindutva. We find out about the family of Hindu nationalist organisations, including the powerful volunteer group called the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, or RSS. Radha d’Souza, a reader in law at the University of Westminster, helps explain the RSS’s opposition to the secular nature of India’s constitution. </p>
<p>We call up Ajay Gudavarthy, associate professor at the Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi in India, to discuss the appeal of Hindu nationalist politics to voters, the role it had in Modi’s election victory in 2014 and its importance in the 2019 polls. </p>
<p>We also take a look at the intersection of caste politics and Hindu nationalism – particularly around the thorny issue of caste reservations, a form of positive discrimination for certain groups. We hear about the dynamics of caste politics today from Suryakant Waghmore, an associate professor at the department of humanity and social sciences at the Indian Insitute of Technology-Bombay, who has done research on caste violence in different parts of India. He says it would be misplaced to attribute an increase in violence totally to the rise of the BJP, but that it’s part of a much longer power struggle within Indian society. </p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-of-hindu-nationalism-india-tomorrow-part-1-podcast-transcript-115505">transcript of this episode</a> here, and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">Subscribe to our Anthill podcast newsletter to hear about new episodes as soon as they drop.</a></em></p>
<p><em>Clarification: It’s asserted in the podcast that when the Congress Party fought its first elections, its electoral symbol was the the cow. In fact the party’s symbol from 1959 to 1972 was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_National_Congress#/media/File:Election_symbol_two_oxen.svg">two bullocks</a>. After 1969, the faction led by Indira Ghandi used <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/research/congress-cow-politics-elections-manifesto-2018-5446682/">a symbol of a cow and suckling calf</a>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kolkata-december-20-om-signed-flags-277358366?src=6vEj6Yq_Et7oIfpQSrenFg-1-10">arindambanerjee via Shutterstock</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a> all via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>. Plus, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrdzK5l25dw">RSS Coimbatore Route March</a> via YouTube.</em></p>
<p><strong>Archive news clips:</strong></p>
<p><em>Election Results 2014: Modi wins India, NDA crosses 300 seats, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so7IvcXC7FQ&feature=youtu.be&t=119">NDTV</a></em></p>
<p><em>Dramatic shift in Indian politics with Modi set to win landslide election victory, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuzR6HUdCsc">euronews</a></em></p>
<p><em>Mediation For Ayodhya Dispute: Is This The Best Way Forward?, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cPgyPSpS3o">NDTV</a></em></p>
<p><em>Modi Govt Approves 10% Reservation For Economically Weak In Upper Castes | India Development Debate, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELjUqUFDYiQ&feature=youtu.be&t=16">ET Now</a></em></p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p>The second part of this series from The Anthill podcast looks at the trajectories of Hindu nationalism in India.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkAnnabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1128182019-04-11T10:44:10Z2019-04-11T10:44:10ZWhy giant statues of Hindu gods and leaders are making Muslims in India nervous<p>Statues – big statues, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/31/world/asia/india-worlds-tallest-statue.html">largest in the world</a> – are being built all across India. </p>
<p>Like many public monuments, they attempt to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/688696?mobileUi=0+%3F&">convey history in a concrete form</a>. But India’s new statues convey something else, too: the power and vision of one dominant group – and the vulnerability of others.</p>
<p>That’s because India’s biggest new public monuments all <a href="https://thewire.in/politics/narendra-modi-statue-of-unity-sardar-patel">pay tribute to Hindu gods and leaders</a>. </p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/bitstream/handle/2152/38723/PRASAD-DISSERTATION-2016.pdf?sequence=1">social change in India</a>, I see statues as a projection of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-history-of-iconoclasm-tells-us-about-the-confederate-statue-controversy-82878">nation’s values</a> at a particular moment in time. For many Muslims and other religious minorities, then, these hulking public monuments of Hindu icons send an ominous message about their status in society.</p>
<h2>Rising Hindu nationalism</h2>
<p>The mammoth public shrines to Hindu nationalism are a <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/kXqmnXhYbJMdFwEn4IUhzI/Narendra-Modi-lays-foundation-of-Shivaji-statue-off-Mumbai-c.html">pet project of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi</a> and his right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party.</p>
<p>Since taking office in 2014, Modi has used his power to promote Hindu nationalism, a polarizing ideology that sees <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/india-modi-culture/">Hindus as India’s dominant group</a>. Yet India is a constitutionally multicultural country with the world’s second largest population of Muslims – comprising over 170 million people. </p>
<p><a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-census-religion-idUKKCN0QV0G520150826">Twenty percent of its 1.3 billion people</a> are Muslim, Christian or another religion. </p>
<p>By 2021 India, which is already home to the tallest statue in the world – Gujarat state’s 597-foot-tall “Statue of Unity,” commemorating <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/india-and-pakistan-win-independence">Indian independence hero</a> Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel – plans to unveil two more record-breaking monuments, both portraying icons idolized by Hindu rightists.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/26/india-plans-725ft-monument-hindu-god-ram-would-break-record/">725-foot bronze likeness of the god Ram</a> planned for Uttar Pradesh state will soon surpass the Statue of Unity in size. And in Mumbai construction has been halted on a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/14/india-to-break-record-for-worlds-largest-statue-twice">695-foot-tall likeness of the medieval Hindu warrior Shivaji</a>, pending the results of an <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/shivaji-memorial-after-supreme-court-notice-pwd-asks-contractor-to-stop-work-5540490/">environmental review</a>.</p>
<p>Guinness World Records also recently judged Tamil Nadu state’s 112-foot depiction of the face of the Hindu god <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/maha-shivratri-pm-modi-to-inaugurate-112-ft-shiva-statue-in-coimbatore-today/story-vxGITzzZoqu1N9yRAD4wXK.html">Shiva</a> as the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/adiyogi-shiva-statue-in-tamil-nadu-declared-largest-bust-by-guinness-world-records/set-the-record/slideshow/58681001.cms">world’s largest bust statue</a>. </p>
<p>All this is happening under Modi, who is up for re-election in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/15/asia/india-election-what-to-know-intl/index.html">monthlong general elections that start on April 11</a>. </p>
<p>He was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/narenda-modi-bjp-sweep-power-indian-elections">voted into office in 2014 on a platform</a> of “development for all.” Promising to boost the economy in a country where nearly 22% of people live in poverty and millions <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/india.html">go hungry</a>, Modi and the BJP won an historic parliamentary majority over the center-left Indian National Congress, its main competitor.</p>
<p>Since then, India has improved in international “<a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/behind-indias-leap-in-ease-of-doing-business/article25469900.ece">ease of doing business</a>” rankings, passing regulations that improve commerce and the protection of property rights. </p>
<p>But some of Modi’s boldest moves to improve cash flow and boost public revenues, including a <a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/india/india-after-goods-and-services-tax-hundreds-of-thousands-lose-jobs-small-businesses-shut-down-1.2275204">2017 tax reform initiative</a> and a ban on <a href="https://theconversation.com/modis-bank-note-ban-has-inflicted-pointless-suffering-on-indias-poorest-69157">saving in certain high-value currencies</a>, have failed. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/31/world/asia/india-unemployment-rate.html">Unemployment</a> has risen under BJP rule, <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/rural-distress-deepens-wage-growth-dips-non-farm-jobs-hit-5619766/">particularly in rural areas</a>, and the national economy <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/30/india-demonetisation-drive-fails-uncover-black-money">suffered during the “demonetization” process</a>.</p>
<p>Over the last five years, under Modi’s administration, India has also seen a startling rise of <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/on-religion/the-violent-toll-of-hindu-nationalism-in-india">Hindu vigilante violence</a>. </p>
<h2>Indian vigilante ‘cow killings’</h2>
<p>The attacks – often called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/holy-cow-as-hindu-nationalism-surges-in-india-cows-are-protected-but-minorities-not-so-much-76632">cow protection</a>” – are sometimes deadly assaults that target Muslims and other Indians who, unlike many Hindus, do not consider cows to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/hinduism-and-its-complicated-history-with-cows-and-people-who-eat-them-80586">sacred</a>. </p>
<p>Hindu militants <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-20/cow-vigilantes-in-india-killed-at-least-44-people-report-finds">killed at least 44 Indians and injured 280 in about 100 attacks</a> between May 2015 and December 2018, according to <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/02/18/india-vigilante-cow-protection-groups-attack-minorities">the international not-for-profit Human Rights Watch</a>. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/india-politics-religion-cows/">Most of the dead were Muslims</a> in states run by Modi’s political party.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/world/asia/narendra-modi-indias-leader-condemns-vigilante-cow-protection-groups.html">prime minister and his BJP have faced criticism</a> for being slow to condemn anti-Muslim violence and for <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/2018/12/05/bulandshahr-yogi-adityanath-wants-action-against-cow-slaughter-but-silent-on-cops-killers_a_23608835/">prioritizing legislation to safeguard cows, not the victims of vigilantism</a>. Cow protection violence has also crippled India’s <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/world/india-cattle-trade-hindu-anti-muslim-cows-narendra-modi-a8453216.html">beef</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-politics-religion-insight/cattle-slaughter-crackdown-ripples-through-indias-leather-industry-idUSKBN1951OE">leather</a> industries, since they are primarily Muslim-run. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/11/asia/india-love-jihad-intl/index.html">Muslim men who date Hindu women</a> are another common target of vigilante violence, as are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-court-sedition/indian-police-charge-student-leader-nine-others-in-sedition-case-idUSKCN1P82A8">students</a>, <a href="https://www.cjr.org/special_report/gauri-lankesh-killing.php">journalists</a>, <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/04/12/scholars-who-study-hinduism-and-india-face-hostile-climate">academics</a> and artists perceived to be critical of Modi’s leadership. </p>
<p>The Hindu nationalists’ crusade against pluralism takes place even as the Modi administration cracks down on civil liberties. Between 2014 and 2016, <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sedition-case-punishment-convictions-kanhaiya-kumar-jnu-5543891/">179 people were arrested</a> on charges of sedition for protests, critical blogs or anti-government posts on Facebook, according to government crime statistics. </p>
<h2>Fears of religious minority groups</h2>
<p>This is the cultural context that has Muslims worried over India’s statue-building spree.</p>
<p>The BJP is not the first party to build public monuments celebrating only one segment of Indian society.</p>
<p>From 2007 to 2012, a top politician named Mayawati built numerous memorials and parks across Uttar Pradesh state commemorating <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-18394914">leaders from India’s marginalized Dalit class</a>, formerly known as the “untouchables.” Mayawati, a Dalit, commissioned statues of herself, her political mentor Kanshi Ram and other Dalit icons <a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/a/ars/13441566.0044.006/--monumental-pride-mayawatis-memorials-in-lucknow?rgn=main;view=fulltext">who fought against India’s caste system</a>. </p>
<p>It was the first time such grand homage had been paid to the Dalit leaders who crusaded against India’s deep-rooted caste system.</p>
<p>But the <a href="http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/mayawati-memorials-cost-rs-5919-cr-says-lda/951755/">US$800 million</a> price invited scrutiny, and the courts have asked Mayawati <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/mayawati-has-to-pay-for-statues-supreme-court/articleshow/67897118.cms">to repay</a> some of those funds. </p>
<p>India’s election commission also insisted that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-16464502">Mayawati’s statues be shrouded ahead of state elections in 2012</a>, saying the visibility of the then-chief minister and her party symbol might sway voters. </p>
<p>In contrast, resistance to India’s giant new statues has been muted. And Hindu nationalists are pushing for more public commemoration of their faith. </p>
<p>In November 2018, tens of thousands of Hindus gathered to demand the construction of a Hindu temple <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46318505">in the Indian city of Ayodhya</a> – at the same spot where, in 1992, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/12/07/world/hindu-militants-destroy-mosque-setting-off-a-new-crisis-in-india.html">Hindu zealots demolished an ancient Muslim-built mosque</a>. </p>
<p>The proposal to build instead an enormous statue of Ram in Ayodhya is widely seen as an effort to placate Hindu nationalists in their decades-long quest for a Ram temple.</p>
<p>Fearing a repeat of the deadly violence that destroyed the ancient mosque, some local Muslims <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/ayodhya-muslims-india-hindu-nationalists-sunday-violence-a8650166.html">fled the city</a> last November.</p>
<h2>Indian elections</h2>
<p>Indians will decide whether to give Modi another five years when they vote this spring in the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/interactive/india-elects-2019">world’s biggest election</a>.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://indianexpress.com/elections/pm-modis-popularity-back-to-peak-levels-on-air-strike-survey-says-5662728/">polls</a> show Modi and his BJP leading in a race in which several competitor parties have allied to defeat him. </p>
<p>The prime minister’s public approval got a <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/post-pulwama-pm-narendra-modis-ratings-rise-by-7-to-52-poll/articleshow/68350217.cms">7% boost</a>, to 52%, after India’s brief but sharp escalation of recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-conflict-is-not-just-a-border-dispute-between-india-and-pakistan-112824">tension with neighboring Pakistan</a>, a majority Muslim state.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-election/india-to-go-to-polls-from-april-11-pakistan-tension-may-boost-modi-idUSKBN1QR0FD">Border disputes</a> are a classic move for a strongman leader during election season. Paying homage to Hindu nationalist icons in the form of giant public monuments, however, is something different. Modi is transforming secular India, one statue at a time.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: Two citations have been added to this piece to acknowledge the scholarship of Kajri Jain.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indulata Prasad received funding from the American Institute of Indian Studies for her research on land rights and India's Dalits. </span></em></p>Colossal public monuments to Hinduism are going up across India, sending an ominous message to the country’s 260 million religious minorities.Indulata Prasad, Assistant Professor, Women and Gender Studies, School of Social Transformation, Tempe Campus, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1149682019-04-10T20:12:15Z2019-04-10T20:12:15ZIndia’s elections will be the largest in world history<p>The world’s largest democratic election is set to take place in India. Voting <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/election-commission-live-updates-lok-sabha-elections-to-be-conducted-in-7-phases/articleshow/68343581.cms">will take place in seven phases</a> from April 11 to May 19, and the result will be announced May 23.</p>
<p>An extraordinary 900 million people are eligible to vote, 130 million for the first time. Not only is it the “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f86c036e-43f0-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3">largest democratic exercise</a>” in history, it is among <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-11/why-india-s-election-is-among-the-world-s-most-expensive">world’s most expensive</a>. In 2014, the Lok Sabha (lower house) elections cost the Election Commission of India <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/asia/indian-elections-world-s-biggest-democratic-exercise-explained-24877">half a billion US dollars</a>. </p>
<p>Several key issues are emerging in this election that will prove decisive in voter decision-making behaviour. Unsurprisingly, economic development is front and centre. Despite having one of the world’s highest economic growth rates, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/28/economy/india-gdp-q3-2019/index.html">growth slowed</a> to 6.4% in the final quarter of 2018, down from a peak of 8.2% in mid-2018. </p>
<p>Unemployment rates are at their <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/india-unemployment-rate-highest-45-years-report-190131144720377.html">highest since</a> the 1970s, as the economy struggles to create jobs for rural migrants moving to cities and a large youth cohort now entering the labour market. Unemployment and inflation, which directly affect household incomes, are widely seen as the <a href="https://www.pewglobal.org/2019/03/25/a-sampling-of-public-opinion-in-india/pg_2019-03-25_public-opinion-in-india_0-02/">biggest concerns</a> for Indians in the lead up to the election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indias-whatsapp-election-political-parties-risk-undermining-democracy-with-technology-111699">India's WhatsApp election: political parties risk undermining democracy with technology</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The spread of “fake news” and misinformation is also an important electoral complication. WhatsApp in India is tackling the spread of misinformation through a verification centre called <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/02/tech/whatsapp-india-tip-line-election/index.html">Checkpoint</a>. Indian users of the Facebook owned social networking service, of which there is 200 million, can send pictures, messages, and videos to be fact-checked.</p>
<p>This comes as Facebook removed hundreds of pages that shared misleading content about India and Pakistan following a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/technology/india-elections-facebook.html">suicide bombing in Kashmir</a>. How to deal with these increasing tensions between India and Pakistan are a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/bihar/statements-made-by-opposition-are-making-enemies-smile-pm-narendra-modi/articleshow/68248699.cms?from=mdr">key feature</a> of the political campaign.</p>
<h2>How India’s electoral system works</h2>
<p>India has a Westminster system of government, a legacy of the British Raj. In the Lok Sabha (lower house) there are 543 seats up for grabs. An additional two seats for the Anglo-Indian community are nominated by the president. These 545 seats will form the 17th Lok Sabha. The Prime Minister is selected from the members of the largest party or coalition.</p>
<p>There is no direct election for the Rajya Sabha (upper house). Rather, the current <a href="https://rajyasabha.nic.in/rsnew/about_parliament/rajya_sabha_introduction.asp">233 Rajya Sabha members</a> are elected by the Legislative Assembly in each of the states and the two union territories, with an additional 12 members nominated by the president. The Rajya Sabha may have up to 250 members, but it doesn’t reach this quota at present.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-and-pakistans-escalating-conflict-will-benefit-narendra-modi-ahead-of-elections-112570">Kashmir: India and Pakistan's escalating conflict will benefit Narendra Modi ahead of elections</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi</h2>
<p>There are two distinct personalities leading the major parties in this election. Both have taken advantage of the Representation of the People Act 1951 during their career, which allows candidates to contest an election from two seats – what the Wall Street Journal calls the “<a href="https://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2014/03/10/why-india-allows-candidates-to-contest-from-two-seats/">political equivalent of spread betting</a>”.</p>
<p>Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/11/what-is-secret-to-success-of-india-s-bharatiya-janata-party-bjp-pub-77477">a Hindu nationalist party</a>. Modi won both of the seats he nominated for in the 2014 elections, Vadodara in his home state of Gujarat, and Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. He chose the seat of Varanasi and <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha-2019/narendra-modi-gets-varanasi-again-amit-shah-replaces-lk-advani-in-gandhinagar/article26600874.ece">will recontest</a> this seat in 2019. It is unknown whether he will contest a second seat, but there is speculation he might in the south of the country.</p>
<p>Leader of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi, leads the secular Indian National Congress (Congress). Gandhi has already declared that he will contest two seats in 2019, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/news/lok-sabha-elections-rahul-gandhi-to-contest-from-wayanad-in-kerala/articleshow/68653530.cms?">Amethi in Uttar Pradesh, as well as Wayanad in the southern state of Kerala</a>. </p>
<p>Gandhi is latest generation of Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty, which has played a decisive role in Indian politics since independence in 1947. In keeping with family tradition, Gandhi <a href="https://www.inc.in/en/aicc-office-bearers/general-secretaries">recently appointed his sister Priyanka Gandhi as the All India Congress Committee</a> secretary responsible for Uttar Pradesh. The All India Congress Committee is responsible for the Congress’ decision making.</p>
<h2>Uttar Pradesh is the primary battleground</h2>
<p>It’s no coincidence that both Modi and Gandhi will contest seats in Uttar Pradesh. Commentators often describe Uttar Pradesh as “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/48f512bf-864d-3fc1-9446-2dd28e634532">the battleground state</a>” of Indian elections. With a population size of roughly <a href="http://censusindia.gov.in/Census_Data_2001/Projected_Population/Projected_Population.pdf">230 million</a> people, Uttar Pradesh sends more members to the Lok Sabha than any other state; it holds 80 seats, followed by Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42) and Bihar (40).</p>
<p>The BJP won the 2014 election with an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. The only time a party won by a larger majority was in 1984 <a href="http://www.elections.in/parliamentary-constituencies/1984-election-results.html">following Indira Gandhi’s assassination</a>, when Rajiv Gandhi led the Congress to win <a href="http://www.elections.in/parliamentary-constituencies/1984-election-results.html">78% of seats</a>. But an absolute majority is more of an anomaly than the norm in recent Indian electoral history.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-government-continues-to-suppress-citizens-right-to-information-ahead-of-election-108225">India: government continues to suppress citizens' right to information ahead of election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This means that in 2019, <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/is-it-time-for-the-return-of-coalition-politics-in-india/story-QxhYNLwigtbVslDCB7TmXJ.html">both the major parties are courting and negotiating with minor parties</a>. Reports on the status of party alliances have the BJP <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabha-elections/lok-sabha-elections-2019-nda-becoming-stronger-mahagathbandhan-coming-undone-says-javdekar/story-rQfaJhzSo6krSOlFvVYOMM.html">performing strongly</a> with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while Congress is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-election/indias-congress-struggles-to-build-alliance-giving-modi-an-edge-idUSKCN1R31PW">struggling</a> to build their opposition coalition.</p>
<p>It’s hard to predict whether Modi or Gandhi will emerge victorious in the election. Opinion polls are presently split. Modi and the BJP benefit from the advantages of incumbency, but recent deterioration in economic performance poses an opportunity for opposition parties. </p>
<p>Although it’s shaping up more like elections of the past, where the result will depend on negotiating party alliances, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections will still go down in history as the world’s biggest election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Watson-Lynn is a member of the Liberal Party of Australia. </span></em></p>Can India’s current prime minister Narendra Modi win the upcoming election? It’s hard to say. India has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but growth has slowed and fake news is rife.Erin Watson-Lynn, Head of Programs, Perth USAsia Centre, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1146542019-04-09T11:13:36Z2019-04-09T11:13:36ZIndia Tomorrow: a podcast series from The Anthill – episode guide<p>India Tomorrow is a seven-part series by The Anthill, a podcast from The Conversation. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-whats-at-stake-in-the-2019-elections-114648">India heads to the polls</a> in April and May for the world’s biggest democratic exercise, we’ll explore, in weekly instalments, the ways in which nationalism and populism are playing out in the Indian context.</p>
<p>The topics we’ll investigate in this series are wide-ranging, and we’ll be hearing from academics around the world about their research into some of the key issues facing Indian society in the 21st century. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=AnthillHeaderBanner2114648">Click here to listen to the India Tomorrow trailer from The Anthill</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Our first episode</strong>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-information-wars-113579">Fake news and the battle for information</a>, examines the role that fake news has played in fuelling violence against certain groups in India. We speak to academic experts about what motivates online trolls who spread misinformation. And we find out who is winning the battle to shape the public debate. <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-information-wars-113579">Listen here</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-info-wars-transcript-115077">read the transcript</a>.</strong></p>
<p><strong>In part two</strong>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">The politics of Hindu nationalism</a>, we’ll work our way through the trajectories of Hindu nationalism in India and the ways in which it interacts with and responds to claims of caste emancipation. <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">Listen here</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-of-hindu-nationalism-india-tomorrow-part-2-podcast-transcript-115505">read the transcript</a>.</strong> </p>
<p><strong>Part three</strong> will take us to the valley of Kashmir, the site of confrontation between India and its neighbour Pakistan, both nuclear-armed. We’ll explore the history of the conflict, what it means for ordinary Kashmiris and what the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-and-pakistans-escalating-conflict-will-benefit-narendra-modi-ahead-of-elections-112570">recent escalation</a> of tensions means for the upcoming elections. <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-3-kashmir-115733">Listen here</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-tomorrow-part-3-podcast-transcript-115732">read the transcript</a>.</strong> </p>
<p><strong>In part four</strong>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-4-women-gender-and-love-116115">Women, gender and love</a>, we dig into what life is like for women in India, including the social pressures facing young women. We’ll explore the extent to which they make up an electoral group in Indian politics, and find out how well they are represented among the country’s lawmakers. <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-4-women-gender-and-love-116115">Listen here</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/women-gender-and-love-india-tomorrow-part-4-podcast-transcript-116197">read the transcript</a></strong>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268159/original/file-20190408-2921-5tuk6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268159/original/file-20190408-2921-5tuk6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268159/original/file-20190408-2921-5tuk6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268159/original/file-20190408-2921-5tuk6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268159/original/file-20190408-2921-5tuk6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268159/original/file-20190408-2921-5tuk6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268159/original/file-20190408-2921-5tuk6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An estimated 900m Indians will cast their votes in April and May.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/aljazeeraenglish/3528881444/sizes/l">Al Jazeera English via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Part five</strong> will focus on the ups and downs of the Indian economy during the first term of prime minister Narendra Modi, with special attention to the spectacular policy of banning high-denomination currency notes that shocked the country and that’s implications continue to be debated. <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-5-economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-116678">Listen here</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/economic-growth-inequality-and-jobs-india-tomorrow-part-5-podcast-transcript-116688">read the transcript</a></strong>. </p>
<p><strong>In the sixth part</strong>, we’ll examine the role of young people in Indian politics and the concerns and aspirations of the estimated 135m first-time voters in the 2019 elections. <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-6-what-young-indians-want-117024">Listen here</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-young-indians-want-india-tomorrow-part-6-podcast-transcript-117045">read the transcript</a></strong>.</p>
<p><strong>The final, seventh episode</strong>, our panel of academic experts guide us through the Indian election results and their implications – not just for India’s future but also the global future of democracy. <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-7-what-narendra-modis-landslide-victory-means-for-india-117769">Listen here</a></strong>.</p>
<p><em>You can <a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">sign up to The Anthill newsletter</a> to get an email about each new episode. Listen to The Anthill podcast via The Conversation’s website, or you can subscribe wherever you get your podcasts from, including <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002">iTunes</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D">Google Podcasts</a>, <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill">Stitcher</a> and <a href="https://pca.st/5Hul">PocketCasts</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114654/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation. </span></em></p>Listen to academics from around the world in this seven-part podcast series on India ahead of the 2019 Indian elections.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkAnnabel Bligh, Co-host, The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1150772019-04-09T11:08:47Z2019-04-09T11:08:47ZIndia Tomorrow part 1 podcast transcript: Fake news and the battle for information<p><em>This is a transcript of part one of The Anthill’s podcast series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a>. Click here to listen <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-information-wars-113579">to the full episode</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b912?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amogh-dhar-sharma-546097">Amogh Sharma</a>:</strong> In the last few days, after the Pulwama bomb attack, we have seen Kashmiri students in different parts of India who have actually been attacked for being Kashmiri. So this is really the nature of violence which fake news can engender in India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Amogh Sharma is a PhD researcher at the University of Oxford. We spoke to him in the wake of the recent escalation of the long simmering conflict in Kashmir. He told us how India’s fake news problem has a tendency to stoke existing tensions. Amogh says that fake images, which went viral after the Pulwama bomb attack, were just the latest example in a long line of fake news stories that have led to violence in India in recent years.</p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> I think the impact that fake news can have in leading to violence and any sort of misinformation speaks to a number of things that really say something about the social and political landscape of what’s happening in India. I think the fact that a single WhatsApp message can often incite people into violence, into taking someone’s life, really says something about the kind of polarisation that is hiding right beneath the surface of of Indian social life.</p>
<p><em>India Tomorrow intro music</em></p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Hello. You’re listening to <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">The Anthill podcast</a> from The Conversation. This is the first episode in a new seven-part series we’re running called India Tomorrow. I’m Annabel Bligh, an editor at The Conversation. And joining me to guide us through this series is Indrajit Roy from the University of York. Indrajit, welcome.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/indrajit-roy-312163">Indrajit Roy</a>:</strong> Hi, it’s great to be here.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Indrajit, before we launch into our series, maybe you could tell us a bit about who you are and what you do. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> I teach at the Department of Politics at the University of York. My research focuses on the politics of development and democracy around the world. I was born and brought up in Delhi and worked several years with the development sector in different parts of India before coming to the UK to do my PhD at oxford.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So, 900m Indians are going to the polls throughout April and May, with charismatic and somewhat controversial prime minister Narendra Modi up for reelection. Instead of focusing on the minutiae of the election itself, we’ve decided to take a wider look at the big issues facing India today, with a view to seeing where it is headed – whether that’s with Modi at the helm or not. From your perspective, Indrajit, why do you think everyone should be intrigued to find out more about what’s going on in India at the moment?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Well, India is fascinating in and of itself. Not only is it the world’s largest democracy but also defies the conventional wisdom that development is a prerequisite for democracy. Impoverished by colonialism, Indians nevertheless introduced universal adult suffrage as far back as 1950, a full 15 years before economic superpowers such as the United States lifted literacy and tax qualifications for voting. India thus presents a very moving story of the ways in which some of the poorest people on the planet have sought to – against enormous odds – construct and sustain democracy. You know, for several decades after India’s independence from colonial rule, observers widely speculated that India would not survive, much less as a democracy. But we see that – warts and all – India not only survived but also emerged as one of the world’s most thriving democracies. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> And to what degree is this under threat today and for India going forward?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Oh, it’s absolutely under threat. And this is why the forthcoming elections next month are so crucial. India illustrates poignantly the global challenges faced by democracy underpinned by the emergence of right-wing populism and an exclusive form of nationalism. India today faces these challenges alongside people in Brazil, Turkey, the United States, Russia, China and several European countries. Prime minister Narendra Modi joins a galaxy of strongmen politicians such as Bolsonaro, Trump, Erdogan, Putin and Xi Jinping who are accused of presiding over the roll-backing the democratic achievements of the last few decades. Of course, these gentlemen (and they are all men!) are a symptom of the problem rather than the cause. Nevertheless, how Indians navigate the political challenges before them holds key lessons for the world as it confronts the global backsliding of democracy. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So, I have to admit I didn’t know a great deal about India before we started researching this series. But it’s been really fascinating to learn how issues like populism and nationalism are playing out there and the parallels we see in India with trends that are sweeping countries around the world. Then, of course, there’s this issue of fake news, which we’re digging into in this episode.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> That’s right. Fake news is a problem facing societies across the world, and has been a key contributor to the global backsliding of democracy. The rise of social media platforms allows people to disseminate information freely. Stories can go viral, even if they’re not true. And there have been a number of cases where they have stoked fears and fuelled violence in India. In this episode, we are going to explore how fake news and the battle for information shapes politics in India. </p>
<p>But first, here’s Amogh Sharma again, outlining the extent of India’s fake news problem.</p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> So here are some cold hard numbers: since 2012, there have been 125 incidents of mob-lynchings in India. These are just simply cow-related, bovine related mob lynchings which are taking place. There are far much more which have happened under the pretext of let’s say something called Love Jihad, or these concerns on child kidnappings which have also taken place.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> This phenomenon called Love Jihad is all to do with the controversy that surrounds relationships between Hindus and Muslims. It’s something we’re going to explore more in a future episode. But perhaps Indrajit, you could just explain the significance of cows in Indian culture to help us understand how fake news stories about cows can lead to mob lynchings.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> See, cows are considered sacred in Hinduism. While historians and social scientists debate the origins of the cow’s sacredness, the fact is that many Hindus don’t eat beef and in some Indian states cattle slaughter is illegal. But beef is eaten by others, such as Muslims and Dalits, a group of people who have historically been oppressed as “untouchables”. In recent years, there have been a rise of cow-protection squads called <em>gau rakshaks</em> in Hindi. Such squads have brought together hardline Hindus who see it as their duty to uphold the law and stop the transportation of cattle for slaughter and indeed even to physically ban people from eating beef. </p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> I think what really happens in a general scenario is that on WhatsApp or even maybe on Twitter or on general SMS, some rumour will start in some village where a community, usually Muslims or Dalits, will be accused of smuggling cattle or consuming beef. And once this information enters the public domain it gets shared and disseminated widely. And this whips up a frenzy and leads to attacks on these communities or a certain set of families who are often residing in some particular part of the city.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So just to clarify, in the cases that this happens, Indrajit, these Muslims and Dalits, are they not necessarily breaking the law when they are attacked by cow-protection squads?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> They may or may not be. The cow protection squads take matters into their own hands and administer vigilante justice with impunity. Much of the time, they act on rumours and speculation. And such messages are often shared via WhatsApp, which has end-to-end encryption, and so it’s impossible to track. </p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> So simply, those which have been on cow-related incidents, there’ve been two 297 victims with approximately 46 deaths. What is quite interesting with the statistics is that of all the people who were attacked in these cases of mob lynchings, 57% of them have been Muslims and 10% of them have been Dalits. And 90% of all these cases have taken place under the BJP rule ever since they took power in 2014. And more than half of them have taken place in those states where BJP is in power. So those are the kind of numbers we’re looking at. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Of course, here it is important to remember the deeper social roots of the violence. The rumours stoke existing fears and mutual suspicions among members of different groups. The BJP didn’t invent these antagonisms.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gurpreet-mahajan-298255">Gurpreet Mahajan</a>:</strong> I think one should realise that we have had communal violence in the past, all through at the time of the partition of the country and the years after. So we’ve had many communal clashes. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> That’s Gurpreet Mahajan, a politics professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in New Delhi.</p>
<p><strong>Gurpreet Mahajan:</strong> So this has been an old problem. The difference now really is that you have more incidents of what will be called isolated events, random events. The worry really is that once you allow individuals to be able to be vigilantes of various kinds, you are really creating a society in which nobody’s safe. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> We’re going to hear more from Gurpreet later about the wider context of populist politics at play in India. But first, we wanted to find out where the rumours that fuel a lot of this violence come from. Amogh Sharma has spoken to a number of India’s internet trolls, including those from a prominent group known as the “Internet Hindus”, to find out what it is that they want. </p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> Internet Hindus are self-confessed Hindu nationalists who belligerently defend their ideology on online social media and they also attack, what we call troll, people who are seen to be critics of Hindu nationalism.
Broadly speaking, they envision India as a Hindu Rashtra, that is a Hindu nation. And they believe in the ideology of Hindu nationalism as the basis of the cultural life of the nation. But, I think in terms of answering the question what they want, I think there is something far more immediate in their politics. And by that I mean that, what they’re looking for, is to, in the immediate, in the present, to capture the public sphere and for the ideology of Hindu nationalism to become the ideological commonsense of all Indians. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> The Internet Hindus are often linked to the party that’s in power, the BJP, whose leader is the current prime minister, Narendra Modi and has a Hindu nationalist platform. But, when we asked Amogh what these internet trolls want, we found it’s not quite clear cut.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Yep, he said the majority of these supporters are not simple agents of the BJP. They have a more complex relationship with the party.</p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> In fact, I remember quite clearly one sentence which one of these self-confessed Internet Hindus told me. He said that: “When I’m on the internet my goal is not to make Modi or someone else as prime minister, my goal is to restore glory to the Hindu nation.” Now this sounds like a really hyperbolic sentence, but I think it really goes at the heart of what’s happening with these Internet Hindus and the role social media is playing. It is certainly true that BJP and other parties have these high tech social media cells which generate the propaganda that becomes so virulent during election season and these Internet Hindus are also helping them in the process. But I think ordinary social media users have taken on to social media to engage in a certain form of politics which political parties cannot fully control. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Nonetheless, the BJP is widely seen as being incredibly skilled at digital campaigning and way ahead of other parties on this front. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/subir-sinha-125936">Subir Sinha</a>:</strong> My name is Subir Sinha and I am a senior lecturer in the Department of Development Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Subir explained how the BJP’s landslide victory in the 2014 national elections was partly down to its effective marketing strategies and dominance of social media. </p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> So they basically got early advice about the use of social media and by sort of 2010, 2011, not only had they established a very large presence on Facebook, but also they had dedicated channels on YouTube. By the time the 2014 elections came round they also had full dominance over Twitter. And if you count the comments pages of newspapers, where people write comments anonymously under newspaper articles, they also had complete dominance over that as well. Even sort of question and answer platforms like Quora begin to see a lot more BJP-oriented content around that point in time. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> If 2014 was India’s first social media election, the 2019 elections are widely anticipated to be the “WhatsApp elections”, thanks to the messaging app’s popularity and track record of being used to influence voters and disseminate fake news.</p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> And once again you know the BJP has to be credited for the fact that they were able to recognise the political potential of WhatsApp both in terms of creating closed discussion groups and also in terms of mobilisation of people not only for electoral purposes, but because I think one of the hallmarks of Modi’s politics is the kind of continuous mobilisation of the population. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So in the same way that we were hearing earlier – about how fake news stories can spread like wildfire and whip up emotions – this can also be used for political purposes. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Absolutely, you get stories spread about political leaders such as Rahul Gandhi, leader of the main opposition party, the Congress. For example, after the Kashmir attack, a story went viral of a photoshopped image of him standing next to the suicide bomber and questions over whether the Congress party was behind the attack. </p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> But also you know comments about the fact that the Gandhi family is probably not entirely Hindu. They have Italian blood. That makes them even more alien to the people of India and so on and so forth.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> As Amogh emphasised, these kinds of stories don’t necessarily come from the BJP headquarters. The party relies on a very wide network of supporters around the country. Perhaps at the other end of the spectrum to the Internet Hindus are a new group called Academics for NaMo – which is shorthand for Narendra Modi. I spoke to Swadesh Singh from Delhi University who’s one of the group’s organisers.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/swadesh-singh-715354">Swadesh Singh</a>:</strong> We are vouching for thought leaders, intellectuals, research scholars, academics, thinkers, columnists, panellists. These are the set of people who disseminate information, knowledge, in different forms. Whether they give lectures, they teach students, or they write columns, or they appear on TV or they participate in public debate. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> They recognise the importance of shaping public debates over how the prime minister has done over the last five years in office. And they set up recently ahead of the 2019 elections.</p>
<p><strong>Swadesh Singh:</strong> It is not just a battle of votes, it is also a battle of narratives. It is also a battle of ideas, that which ideas should prevail. Which narrative is for the betterment of the country? So we think the narrative propounded by prime minister Narendra Modi, the narrative of new India, is the best narrative available today. That’s why everyone should come forward and through their words, through their action, through their dissemination of knowledge, information, they should support prime minister Narendra Modi in this general election. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Swadesh is absolutely right. It’s a battle of narratives. And it’s not just the BJP that has online support. India’s other parties have woken up to the need to fight this war of information. And it often doesn’t make for a particularly high level of public debate. There are trolls working on behalf of the Congress, for example, engaging in a large amount of online abuse. We asked Amogh Sharma about some of their motivations.</p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> I think it’s about attacking people who are Internet Hindus for their politics and engaging in an endless stream of vicious abuse. So for every Internet Hindu that calls someone a “libtard” which is a portmanteau for “liberal” and, I’m sorry to use the word, “retard”, they will call someone a “sanghi”, they will call someone a “bhakt”, and a bhakt is a loyal devout follower of someone. So they’ll engage in these sort of you know word plays, these, spin new words. And that is really I think goes at the heart of the politics of presence on social media that these internet Hindus and other trolls really occupy.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> So it’s not a one-way fight and I expect we’ll see spin and fake news from all sides in India’s elections. The BJP certainly seems to be the most effective party, though, when it comes to online campaigns.</p>
<p><strong>Amogh Sharma:</strong> I think one can state quite unequivocally that BJP is taking the lead in this sphere. I think the range of misinformation and fake news that all Hindu nationalist groups, including the BJP, indulge in, far outnumbers those of all other parties put together.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Subir Sinha is keen to emphasise not just the size of the BJP’s online presence, but the emotions the party effectively taps into.</p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> So the idea of you can’t just be nationalist you’ve got to be hyper nationalist. You can’t just be upset with Pakistan’s actions you’ve got to be enraged by Pakistan’s actions. And again we see that you know this is a fairly global phenomenon. And to that extent we have to acknowledge that you know while Modi and the BJP’s politics are hyper nationalist, it shares with the current hyper nationalist moment which is sweeping across the world. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Another hallmark of the BJP is the popularity of the party’s leader, Narendra Modi. He has successfully cultivated an image as a strong and charismatic leader. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Totally. Modi remains the BJP’s star campaigner and performer. He is absolutely popular among the masses and leads in most opinion polls about who should be India’s next prime minister. Modi’s humble origins as a chaiwallah – a tea-seller – has enormous appeal. His meteoric rise from small-town Gujarat to the highest office in the country resonates with lots of Indians. Here’s Subir again. </p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> So this is a very much a Modi-oriented thing. Unlike any other political party, there is very strong identification among supporters of the BJP with Modi personally. That he is someone whose word must be taken beyond any kind of demand for evidence or proof because he is the leader who is an unparalleled great man.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> And, Subir says, this support for Modi takes on religious proportions. </p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> I have written about this in a <a href="https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/24533/1/sinha-fragile-hegemony-modi-social-media-competitive-electoral-populism-india-%20IJoC.pdf">paper</a> in which I have provided links to videos in which you can see that someone is in a temple and is praying to the God Shiva. And as the prayer becomes more and more frenetic, the face of Shiva gets replaced by that of Modi. But it is not just the people who think of him as God. There is a very strong element of “well-educated people” who just believe that you know nations need very strong leaders from time to time to take them on an upward trajectory. This is obviously something we’ve seen across the world in previous decades as well. And that he is the man. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Modi even has his own app, the NaMo app, through which he broadcasts his views and stays in touch with his adoring fans.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Yes, I asked Subir about this. He said even the way it’s branded NaMo has religious undertones.</p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> NaMo is not just an acronym for Narendra Modi. But also Namo, in many Hindi or many Hindu religious chants, they might end with “<em>namo nama</em>” which means you know I bow before the God kind of thing. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Indrajit, are you familiar with the NaMo app? Is it something you have on your phone or know people who subscribe to?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> I don’t unfortunately have the app on my phone. But I know of people who’ve subscribed to this app. And Subir is right, they aren’t the religious sorts at all, they are successful businessmen, well-trained professionals, people who you wouldn’t usually associate with religion or religious ideas. So yes, there is a wider appeal than just the religious Hindu.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> And here’s Subir to explain what it is that they’re getting through this app.</p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> So you can basically get his statements and his speeches many of whom may or may not be shown on national television in the same degree of length or detail that you as a Modi fan might want to see them. You can also get the archive of his monologues, which are twice a month on national radio. You might be sent content to then use to disseminate across your different social media platforms that you might be using. You can also buy Modi merchandise on that. So if you wanted to get a Modi mask for your child or a Modi doll for your child or something of that sort, or a t-shirt, you could buy those things. But I think that the most important element of that is that he solicits advice for his monologues via the app.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> So this is the thing. It’s a two-way process. Through his app, Modi is able to stay in touch with his supporters and display how engaged he is with the people. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> The huge focus on Modi as a political personality and his method of interacting with people through his own social media app, is not dissimilar to how US president Donald Trump uses Twitter.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Modi’s direct appeal to the public and ability to tap into and stir up the mood of the nation has had him branded a populist in a similar vein to not just Trump, but Brazil’s new president Bolsonaro, and president Duterte of the Philippines. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> To talk us through how Modi fits into this global trend, here’s Professor Gurpreet Mahajan.</p>
<p><strong>Gurpreet Mahajan:</strong> There seem to be three kinds of conditions that invariably create conducive conditions for the emergence of such kind of politics. One of course is economic conditions that prevail. Then there is the context and anxieties generated by terrorism that affects large numbers of people, more than just the globalisation losers as it were. So you play on those anxieties to say who is the enemy within or whom should we be careful about? So you can have, you know, “us” and “them” kind of politics. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> These are areas we’re going to be exploring in future episodes. </p>
<p><strong>Gurpreet Mahajan:</strong> And then you have a force and technology triggered new social media. So you can bypass the old which seems to be the voice of the past or the elite and allow yourself to really connect with people who think and who can understand and share these anxieties and appeal to them directly.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> In many ways, as we’ve heard, the BJP and Narendra Modi are winning this battle to connect with people – through appealing to their emotions and through Modi’s personal appeal to many of his followers. But it seems that the Congress party recognises this and is opting for a different approach. Here’s what Subir Sinha has found.</p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> What is interesting is that if you speak with Congress social media people, they will tell you that they cannot and therefore will not try to replicate the BJP’s strategies on social media. In other words, yes there will be fake news from time to time, but they actually don’t own 25 or 30 fake news factories, that they say the BJP does. Secondly, they know that there is no identification with Rahul Gandhi in the same fanatical way that there is with Modi. So they are not going for a strong leader kind of a platform. So what they seem to be doing much more is to actually take it back to the policy side of populism.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Subir says populism takes two forms: one is all about style and the other relates to substance – or policies.</p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> Which is to make pro-poor statements. If they’ve written off loans for farmers in states that they have recently won, then to say, “hey listen, you know we make promises that we keep. Recently they have also returned land taken from tribal populations for handing over to corporations for megaprojects. So they basically want to steer away to some extent – because they can’t win by becoming another Modi – to try to think of populism in a slightly different way. By downplaying the populist style and the concept of the great leader and think much more of populism as a set of policies which provides benefits and support to those who need it. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Subir also talked about a certain level of public wariness that has set in when it comes to fake news stories because there have been so just many of them.</p>
<p><strong>Subir Sinha:</strong> I think there is also a kind of fatigue also on WhatsApp, on how much fake news the BJP has produced and also the close connections between certain television channels and those people who are so-called social media influencers. People who were once quoting those television channels on WhatsApp kind of conversations to make their point will no longer want to do so. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> When it comes to fake news, it’s certainly interesting times we live in. I think it’s the way it appeals to people’s emotions that makes it so hard to combat. And that we can be quite lazy when we see a news headline that we agree with – it’s so easy to retweet or forward it to friends on a WhatsApp group.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> It’s definitely a key issue to watch out for in the Indian elections, as with all elections these days. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> That’s it for this episode. We’ll be exploring the issue of Hindu nationalism in part two of India Tomorrow. </p>
<p><strong>Shalini Sharma:</strong> Hindutva basically claimed that a Hindu is somebody whose religion was born in the territory that we now know as pre-partition India. So Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists and Hindus of all different sort of sects within Hinduism, they are Hindus. People whose religion was not born in India, so Christians and Muslims do not constitute Hindus and are thus outside of Hindutva. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> That’s in part two of this series from The Anthill, India Tomorrow. Do subscribe to The Anthill so you don’t miss out. A big thanks to my co-host Indrajit Roy. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Thanks Annabel. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> You can read more of The Conversation’s coverage of India by academics around the world on <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/indian-elections-2019-68064">theconversation.com</a> or follow us on social media. If you’ve got any questions relating to what we’ve been discussing in this series, please do get in touch via email on podcast@theconversation.com or on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthillPod">@anthillpod</a>. We’ll put these to a panel of academics we’ve got lined up to discuss the election results at the end of May. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> A big thanks to all the academics who spoke to us for this episode and to the journalism department at City University for letting us use their studios. The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and me, Annabel Bligh. Sound by Alex Portfelix. And thanks to our intern Salome Pkhaladze for her editing help. Thanks for listening. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy:</strong> Goodbye.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh:</strong> Goodbye!</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can listen to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-from-the-anthill-trailer-for-new-podcast-series-114641">trailer for India Tomorrow</a> here, and also <a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">sign up to The Anthill newsletter</a> to get an email about each new episode. Do get in touch with any questions via podcast@theconversation.com or reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthillPod">@anthillpod</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
This is a transcript of part one of The Anthill’s podcast series, India Tomorrow, on fake news and information wars.Annabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UKGemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1135792019-04-09T11:08:45Z2019-04-09T11:08:45ZIndia Tomorrow part 1: fake news and the battle for information<p>Fake news is a problem facing society across the world. The rise of social media platforms allows people to disseminate information freely. Stories can go viral, even if they’re not true. And there have been a number of cases where they have stoked fears and fuelled violence in India. </p>
<p>In this, the first episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a>, a series from The Conversation’s Anthill podcast, we explore how fake news and the battle for information shapes politics in India. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e3bf1111a6e452f6380a7bc/episodes/5e3bf133659d595770f8b912?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-anthill/id1114423002?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321534/original/file-20200319-22606-q84y3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=182&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/265Bnp4BgwaEmFv2QciIOC?si=-WMr1ecDTsO_6avrkxZu8g"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321535/original/file-20200319-22606-1l4copl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<hr>
<p>We speak to Amogh Sharma, a PhD researcher at the University of Oxford, about the way that fake news stokes existing tensions in Indian society. We also find out what motivates the internet trolls fighting for and against current prime minister, Narendra Modi.</p>
<p>Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP, is extremely effective at digital campaigning. Subir Sinha, Indian politics expert at SOAS, University of London, outlines how the party won the battle for information in the 2014 elections and why it is well placed to do so again in 2019. He explains how Modi successfully taps into people’s emotions and has cultivated an image as a strong and charismatic leader.</p>
<p>Gurpreet Mahajan, a politics professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in New Delhi, tells us how Modi’s politics plays into the global trend of populism. And how the violence that has been fuelled by fake news in recent years has deeper social roots.</p>
<p>We also speak to Swadesh Singh from the University of Delhi. He heads up Academics for Namo, which brings together academics and thought leaders who believe Modi is the best candidate for leading India into a better future. </p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/battle-for-india-part-1-info-wars-transcript-115077">transcript of this episode here</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">Subscribe to our Anthill podcast newsletter to hear about new episodes as soon as they drop.</a></strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Credits</h2>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: EPA-EFE/Harish Tyagi.</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a>. All via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>News clips from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrbctIt79pQ">CNN-News18</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>India Tomorrow part 1 explores how fake news and the battle for information shapes Indian society.Annabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationIndrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1145252019-04-08T08:35:09Z2019-04-08T08:35:09ZIndia elections: who are Narendra Modi’s main rivals – and can they beat him?<p>India is heading to the polls in the world’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-here-is-whats-at-stake-in-the-2019-elections-114648">biggest democratic election</a> and a number of different figures could emerge as India’s next prime minister in May.</p>
<p>The incumbent, Narendra Modi, and his main opponent, the Congress Party president, Rahul Gandhi, are obviously the most likely candidates. But if they both fail to gain sufficient seats to form a government, they could be displaced from within their own parties. It is also possible that, in a fragmented parliament, another politician from one of the regional parties could stitch together a coalition.</p>
<p>In 2014, the electorate delivered Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the first absolute majority gained by any party since 1984. Tired of a Congress Party-led government mired in corruption scandals and rampant inflation, voters embraced Modi’s promise to clean up politics, cut red tape, create jobs, and restore confidence. They also embraced Modi himself, despite his controversial past as a Hindu nationalist firebrand, responding positively to his claim that he had matured into a <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/narenda-modis-transformation-international-outcast-indias-prime-minister/">selfless vikas purush</a> (“development man”).</p>
<p>But the Modi government’s failure to deliver what it promised has tarnished that image. Anti-corruption efforts have caused pain, with small businesses hit by the sudden decision in late 2016 to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shock-of-indian-demonetisation-a-failed-attempt-to-formalise-the-economy-93328">withdraw large denomination banknotes</a> from circulation. Economic growth has flagged, and jobs are scarce. </p>
<p>Despite this, in February, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-an-expert-assesses-the-risk-112892">terrorist attack in disputed Kashmir</a> and a retaliatory Indian air strike on Pakistan have made <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/opinion/india-terror-attack-modi-election-politics.html">national security the salient election issue</a>, handing Modi another chance to reinvent himself. In response, he has assumed the mantle of a <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha-2019/narendra-modi-urges-supporters-to-take-main-bhi-chowkidar-pledge/article26555745.ece">chowkidar</a> (“watchman”), asserting in a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/narendramodi/videos/main-bhi-chowkidar/320532898653008/">slick media campaign</a> that in these troubled times, he and his supporters are best suited to defend India from its enemies both inside and outside the country.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=AnthillHeaderBanner2114641">Click here to listen to India Tomorrow</a></em></p>
<h2>The dynasty</h2>
<p>Modi’s principal opponent, Gandhi, has been caught flatfooted by this shift. The scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, related to three of India’s former prime ministers, Gandhi is 20 years Modi’s junior, and ought to be more in tune with India’s youthful voters. But he <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/19/the-last-gandhi/">struggled to connect with the electorate</a>, including first time voters, in 2014, when his Congress Party secured just 44 out of 543 contestable parliamentary seats. Since then, he has also struggled to capitalise on the Modi government’s apparent failures to boost economic growth, create jobs, and address rural poverty.</p>
<p>In 2019, the Congress Party should nevertheless do better, if <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/02/05/as-uttar-pradesh-goes-so-goes-india-pub-78247">opinion polls and seat projections are any guide</a>. Gandhi will be supported by his popular, if enigmatic, sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Her striking resemblance to her former prime minister grandmother, Indira Gandhi, appeals to some Congress voters, and her apparent savvy to party officials. She has not yet announced that she will stand for a seat, however, and the <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/robert-vadra-appears-before-ed-in-money-laundering-case/article26193529.ece">allegedly murky real estate dealings</a> of her husband, Robert Vadra, makes her vulnerable to BJP attacks.</p>
<p>The Gandhis have considerable assets – instant name recognition and an established, nationwide party organisation – but also significant weaknesses. Rahul Gandhi’s abilities and commitment remain in doubt.</p>
<p>The Congress campaign has been often negative, summed up in its slogan “<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/bihar/rahul-gandhi-mocks-pm-modis-chowkidar-campaign/articleshow/68535638.cms">Chowkidar Chor Hai</a>” (“The watchman is a thief”). And the fact that the Congress Party is still run by a dynasty – however distinguished – alienates some voters.</p>
<h2>Powerbrokers and rivals</h2>
<p>It is unlikely that either the BJP or the Congress Party will come close to winning a majority in parliament. To rule, they will need the support of a number of regional allies, especially from the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, which account for almost half the seats. This may hand power to regional powerbrokers, such as West Bengal’s mercurial chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, who will be able to direct their MPs to support one or other leader.</p>
<p>These powerbrokers could deliver either main party into government, albeit it at a price, in terms of both cabinet positions and modified policies. Alternatively – in an admittedly improbable scenario – they could even come together to form a <a href="https://thewire.in/politics/mahagathbandhan-seat-sharing-formula-bihar-left-parties">Mahagathbandhan</a> or “grand alliance”, with one of their number as prime minister, should either Modi or Gandhi fail. </p>
<p>It is also possible that the BJP could emerge as the largest party and in a position to form government, but with a disappointingly low number of seats, leading to a challenge to Modi’s position. So far, he has been fortunate that some of his potential rivals within the BJP, such as external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, have been unwell or unwilling to challenge his leadership. </p>
<p>Recently, however, the names of potential successors have been canvassed more openly, including that of roads and railway minister <a href="https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/politics/nitin-gadkari-the-man-many-reckon-could-emerge-an-alternative-to-modi/cid/1681572">Nitin Gadkari</a>. Should the BJP lose more than a 100 seats, <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/why-nitin-gadkari-could-be-indias-next-prime-minister/174251/">some speculate</a> that an alternative leader, with a less autocratic style better suited to managing a delicate coalition, could well be sought out by the party.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can listen to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641">trailer for India Tomorrow here</a>, and also <a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">sign up to The Anthill newsletter</a> to get an email about each new episode. Get in touch with any questions about the Indian elections via podcast@theconversation.com or reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthillPod">@anthillpod</a>.</em></p>
<p>
<section class="inline-content">
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249586/original/file-20181210-76983-1azl8ax.png?h=128">
<div>
<header>Ian Hall is the author of:</header>
<p><a href="https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/ian-hall">Modi and the Reinvention of Indian Foreign Policy</a></p>
<footer>Bristol University Press provides funding as a content partner of The Conversation UK</footer>
</div>
</section>
</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114525/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Hall receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>India’s general election, held over six weeks in April and May, pits the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s Narendra Modi against a varied band of opponents, including Rahul Gandhi.Ian Hall, Deputy Director (Research), Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1146482019-04-02T12:53:14Z2019-04-02T12:53:14ZIndia: what’s at stake in the 2019 elections<p>Indians are about to start voting in the world’s largest democratic exercise. The country’s 900m registered voters will vote in national elections between April 11 and May 19 across 1m polling stations in 543 constituencies. India has a Westminster-style parliamentary democracy with voters electing their representatives to India’s lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. Voting has been staggered <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/election-commission-live-updates-lok-sabha-elections-to-be-conducted-in-7-phases/articleshow/68343581.cms">over seven phases</a> to ensure that the electoral process is provided the necessary security. The results will be declared on May 23. </p>
<p>India’s current prime minister, Narendra Modi, is up for re-election as the head of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies the National Democratic Alliance. A polarising figure, opinions diverge sharply over Modi’s record in government and his legacy. </p>
<p>Supporters insist that Modi has ushered in economic development, military strength, national pride and a sense of confidence among the country’s Hindu majority. Critics challenge such claims, pointing to soaring unemployment (the worst in <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-s-unemployment-rate-hit-45-year-high-in-2017-18-report/story-1MYf1tFZ0thkz1UGfKp1BP.html">45 years</a>), agrarian distress, reassertion of caste privilege and social polarisation. </p>
<p>Modi faces a range of opposition forces. The principle opposition is provided by the Congress Party and its allies, the United Progressive Alliance. Other opponents include regional parties in different states, such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, as well as leftist parties in the state of Kerala. The BJP and its allies enjoy a <a href="http://164.100.47.194/Loksabha/Members/StatisticalAnalysis.aspx">crushing majority in the Lok Sabha</a>, controlling 336 of the 543 seats: the BJP alone has 268 seats. </p>
<p>Fears abound that Modi’s re-election will rent asunder India’s constitutional values and social fabric. Since the BJP’s ascension to power, lynchings of social minorities, especially Dalits and Muslims, have <a href="https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/1/12005/Cow-Lynching-Timeline-Steady-Increase-Under-BJP-With-A-Spike-in-2017">been on the rise</a>. Leaders of India’s historically oppressed Dalit communities <a href="https://www.news18.com/news/politics/rss-bjps-main-agenda-is-to-remove-reservation-for-sc-st-says-jignesh-mewani-2000939.html">remain anxious</a> that the BJP seeks to dismantle the affirmative actions for oppressed populations guaranteed by the Indian constitution. The very idea of India is at stake.</p>
<h2>A thriving democracy</h2>
<p>When India became independent in 1947, few people expected the country to survive. Nevertheless, Indians introduced universal adult suffrage soon after obtaining independence and adopted a republican constitution in 1950, a full 15 years before economic superpowers such as the US lifted literacy and tax qualifications for voting. </p>
<p>Throughout the 1950s and 1960s international observers <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=9jbWCgAAQBAJ&pg=PA338&lpg=PA338&dq=The+odds+are+wholly+against+the+survival+of+freedom&source=bl&ots=Mu7cg_K4Yr&sig=ACfU3U1IJ_KU5W-o_oNBkv6aoLU2a_0anQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwib6Lvc2K7hAhXMRxUIHTfMB4cQ6AEwA3oECAcQAQ#v=onepage&q=The%20odds%20are%20wholly%20against%20the%20survival%20of%20freedom&f=false">remained sceptical</a> of India surviving as <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/thehindu/mag/2005/07/17/stories/2005071700140300.htm">a democracy</a>, given its huge levels of poverty and illiteracy. Yet, India not only survived but also emerged – warts and all – as one of the world’s most thriving democracies. The country presents a very moving story of the ways in which some of the poorest people on the planet have sought to construct and sustain democracy against enormous odds. Their achievements are under threat today.</p>
<p>India poignantly illustrates the global challenges posed to democracy by the rise of nationalism and populism. Identity politics, or a politics that focuses on people’s particular social identities, permeates political narratives in India as elsewhere in the world in 2019. Indians are faced with an idea of nationalism that seeks to exclude significant sections of their own population from its ambit. And they have borne the brunt of right-wing populism, as shown by the growth of <a href="https://theconversation.com/holy-cow-as-hindu-nationalism-surges-in-india-cows-are-protected-but-minorities-not-so-much-76632">cow-protection squads</a> administering vigilante justice over the last few years. </p>
<p>Social identity provides the basis of political mobilisation. India today faces these challenges alongside countries such as Brazil, Turkey, the US and various European countries. Modi joins a galaxy of strongmen politicians such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the US’s Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, accused of rolling back democratic achievements of the last few decades.</p>
<p>How Indians respond to the challenges of exclusionary nationalism, right-wing populism and supremacist identity politics in the 2019 elections holds key lessons for the world as it confronts the global backsliding of democracy. After all, elections provide a window onto the hopes harboured by citizens, the anxieties they confront and the possibilities they imagine. The narratives that emerge prior to, during, and immediately after any elections offer unique insights into ongoing processes of social change. </p>
<h2>India Tomorrow</h2>
<p>It is into these imaginations, narratives and social processes, rather than the machinations of the different political parties, that The Conversation will delve over the next few weeks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=AnthillHeaderBanner2114648">Click here to listen to the India Tomorrow trailer from The Anthill</a></em></p>
<p>In a seven part series, India Tomorrow, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">The Anthill podcast</a>, The Conversation will explore the ways in which nationalism and populism are playing out in India as the country heads to polls. We will be speaking to academics from around the world to help illuminate the topics that are not only key to the forthcoming elections but offer an insight into the social upheaval Indians are experiencing in the 21st century.</p>
<p>You can listen to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-from-the-anthill-trailer-for-new-podcast-series-114641">trailer for India Tomorrow</a> here, and also <a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/r/23816052A5FFA0842540EF23F30FEDED">sign up to The Anthill newsletter</a> to get an email about each new episode. Do get in touch with any questions via podcast@theconversation.com or reach out on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthillPod">@anthillpod</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>India heads to the polls in April and May for the world’s biggest democratic exercise. Why the world should be watching this election.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.