tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/joyce-banda-37109/articlesJoyce Banda – The Conversation2019-05-20T13:36:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1174172019-05-20T13:36:40Z2019-05-20T13:36:40ZWhat to expect from Malawi’s sixth poll since one-party rule ended<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275420/original/file-20190520-69209-1hvopg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eight candidates are running for president in Malawi’s election.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Malawi <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/mec-announces-malawi-tripartite-election-date-may-21-2019/">is going to the polls</a> to elect a new president, new members of Parliament and local government representatives. Newly elected officials will serve for the next five years. This is the sixth nationwide election Malawi has held since it became a multiparty democracy in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43101816?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">1994</a>. It is the first poll since the introduction of a <a href="https://malawilii.org/mw/legislation/act/2018/1">new law</a> last year designed to regulate the registration, funding and functioning of political parties. Thabo Leshilo asked Chris Changwe Nshimbi to explain what to expect.</em></p>
<p><strong>How many people and parties are registered to vote?</strong></p>
<p>Overall, the <a href="https://mec.org.mw/">Malawi Electoral Commission</a> registered about <a href="https://www.mec.org.mw/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Final-Voter-Registration-Figures-With-Transfers-and-Youth-Statistics-.pdf">6.86 million</a> voters for the elections. This number is down from the <a href="https://www.mec.org.mw/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Final-Voter-Registration-Figures-With-Transfers-and-Youth-Statistics-.pdf">7.5 million</a> registered voters in the previous elections, in 2014. There are <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi-population-hits-17-5-million-females-still-a-majority-census-results-show-35-percent-growth-rate/">17,5 million people</a> in Malawi, of whom <a href="http://www.nsomalawi.mw/images/stories/data_on_line/demography/census_2018/2018%20Population%20and%20Housing%20Census%20Preliminary%20Report.pdf">8,6 million, representing 49%</a> of the total population, are 18 years or older, and <a href="http://aceproject.org/regions-en/countries-and-territories/MW">eligible to vote</a>.</p>
<p>The voters have 1331 candidates across the country from which to choose 193 MPs. Thirteen of the country’s 50 registered political parties are contesting the elections. </p>
<p>Following the <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN1QW0UK-OZATP">withdrawal</a> from the presidential race of the only woman candidate, former president Joyce Banda, the electorate now has <a href="https://mec.org.mw/2019/02/14/approved-candidates-for-may-21-presidential-elections/">eight men</a>, from which to choose its next President. </p>
<p><strong>Who are the main contenders?</strong></p>
<p>Incumbent president, <a href="http://mawila.com/peter-mutharika-biography-net-worth/">Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika</a>, is seeking a <a href="http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/malawis-president-makes-final-plea-for-re-election-in-tight-race/">second </a> and, hopefully, final term. He faces opposition from Saulos Chilima, from the United Transformation Movement; Lazarus Chakwera, of Malawi Congress Party; Cassim Chilumpha, of Tikonze People’s Movement; Atupele Muluzi, of United Democratic Front; John Chisi, of Umodzi Party, Peter Kuwani Mbakuwaku, of Movement for Development and Reverend Kaliya, an independent candidate.</p>
<p>Of the seven other presidential aspirants, Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party face two main contenders in Saulos Chilima, his Deputy President and leader of the newly-formed United Transformation Movement; and Lazarus Chakwera, leader of the Malawi Congress Party, a former pastor.</p>
<p>Chakwera, whose party is the second largest in Malawi’s parliament, has promised <a href="https://malawi24.com/2019/05/04/mutharika-has-failed-mcp-only-hope-for-malawians-chakwera/">inclusive development</a> if voted into office.</p>
<p>Chilima, Mutharika’s onetime ally and presidential running mate in the 2014 elections, shocked Mutharika in 2018 when he quit the governing party <a href="https://punchng.com/malawis-vice-president-sets-up-own-party-attacks-president/">to form UTM</a>. The former corporate executive is calling for change in the way in which Malawi is governed. Chilima says his candidacy represents a generational shift that will <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi-is-at-a-crossroads-it-needs-change-chilima/">reverse the downward trend</a> in Malawi’s environmental, economic, social and political trends, which seems to be “business as usual” to Mutharika.</p>
<p><strong>What are the issues in the elections?</strong></p>
<p>Both Chilima and Chakwera have made corruption a major issue in their campaigns, accusing Mutharika of nurturing it. Malawi has indeed witnessed scandalous high-profile corruption in the past decade. The <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-14-malawi-in-midst-of-100m-cashgate-scandal">2013 “Cashgate” scandal</a>, for example, saw donors <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/malawi-donors-withhold-aid-over-cashgate-scandal/1786120.html">withdraw financial support</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-25912652">aid</a> to the country, whose national budget is 40% donor-funded.</p>
<p>Interestingly, corruption was a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/29/malawian-president-joyce-banda-faces-electoral-humiliation-possibly-jail">major issue</a> that contributed to Joyce Banda losing to Mutharika in the 2014 elections. Ironically, it’s Mutharika who is being accused of corruption this time around. Whether the accusations will stick and, consequently, see history repeat itself remains to be seen after the elections. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Malawian President Arthur Peter Mutharika (79) wants a second term.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Jason Szenes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For his part Mutharika has been highlighting improvements in infrastructure and the <a href="https://mwnation.com/huge-maize-output-to-lower-inflation/">lower inflation</a> rates Malawi has seen during his first term. He also takes the credit for having stabilised the economy, which he found in shambles in 2014, and for improvements in the country’s agricultural output. </p>
<p>He has promised to continue improving Malawi’s infrastructure and to subsidise agriculture, if he retains power. He has gone as far as promising to develop Malawi to the <a href="https://malawi24.com/2019/05/04/mutharika-has-failed-mcp-only-hope-for-malawians-chakwera/">levels of Europe</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Can the elections be free and fair?</strong> </p>
<p>Apart from the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/malawi-s-election-preparations-impacted-by-cyclone-idai-flooding/4907201.html">devastating effect Cyclone Idai</a> has had – some people lost their voter registration certificates to flooding and some candidates could not reach people trapped in evacuation camps – not many complaints have been raised by contenders about the fairness of the playing field in this year’s election. </p>
<p>A worrying factor is the decline in the number of voters registered for the elections. But, such apathy is <a href="https://africacheck.org/fbcheck/yes-more-than-9-million-eligible-voters-arent-registered-for-south-africas-2019-elections/">not unique</a> to Malawi. Several factors are normally cited for this, including disappointment with politicians who fail to deliver on campaign promises.</p>
<p>Some people have raised concerns about the 79-year-old Mutharika’s <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/mutharika-tells-bbc-he-has-clean-bill-of-health-i-am-not-sick-but-100-well/">health</a>. They doubt his ability to effectively lead Malawi for another five years, given the country’s socio-economic challenges. The landlocked country is one of the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/malawi/overview">poorest</a> and least developed in the world. </p>
<p>These challenges actually apply to whoever emerges victorious after this poll.</p>
<p>Two cases in point are agriculture and employment. The Malawian economy is predominantly based on subsistence agriculture, which is crucial for food security. The majority of people who practice this type of agriculture also live in rural area. </p>
<p>And that’s where most of the vote comes from. Whoever wins the hearts of rural voters will most likely carry the day in Malawi. The same applies to the candidate who offers a better promise to the nation’s many jobless young people.</p>
<p><strong>Will the elections help Malawi consolidate democracy?</strong></p>
<p>It’s an achievement in itself that Malawi is holding its sixth multi-party national elections since its transition from its era of dictatorship under former President <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hastings-Kamuzu-Banda">Kamuzu Banda</a>. Banda ruled the country with an iron fist for the first three decades after independence.</p>
<p>But beyond free and fair elections, democratic consolidation entails fulfilling electoral promises, especially those that relate to citizens’ rights to basic services like water and education. The country also needs to provide decent work for its citizens.</p>
<p>The eight candidates contesting for the presidency and the 13 political parties that are vying for Parliament clearly show that Malawi’s election is open. But, more could be done to promote the participation of women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Changwe Nshimbi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s an achievement in itself that Malawi is holding its sixth multi-party national elections since its transition from dictatorship under former President Kamuzu Banda.Chris Changwe Nshimbi, Director & Research Fellow, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/899802018-01-22T15:43:51Z2018-01-22T15:43:51ZStability in southern Africa hinges on how leaders gain and lose power<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202402/original/file-20180118-29900-1tmlu4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters demand Congolese President Joseph Kabila step down.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Thomas Mukoya</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While each country in Southern Africa has its own politics, recent developments involving presidents provide interesting contrasts across the region. Which presidents gain and lose power in 2018 – and how they do so – will have significance for the region as a whole, not least in helping determine its continued stability.</p>
<p>As 2018 begins, Joseph Kabila is clinging to the presidency of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), claiming that there is insufficient funding to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/16/delayed-drc-elections-could-be-put-back-further-by-cash-shortage">hold an election</a>, amid <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/53-protesters-killed-over-six-months-in-drc-report-20171121">growing protests</a> against him in Kinshasa and elsewhere. It remains to be seen if he will fulfil the undertaking he has made that elections will be held in <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/kabila-at-un-pledges-drc-elections-but-still-no-date-20170923">December this year</a>.</p>
<p>Other countries in the region start 2018 on a much more promising footing. In Botswana, President Ian Khama, approaching the end of his two presidential terms, is expected to step down in an <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/11/09/botswana-president-says-he-will-step-down-at-the-end-of-his-term-in-april//">orderly succession</a> in April and will be suceeded by the vice-president.</p>
<p>In both Zimbabwe and Angola autocratic presidents who had been in power for almost four decades lost power in 2017 in very different ways.</p>
<h2>Military intervention in Zimbabwe</h2>
<p>In the case of Zimbabwe the country’s army intervened in November 2017 to force Robert Mugabe to <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe-beware-the-military-is-looking-after-its-own-interests-not-democracy-87712">give up power</a>. This came after he had, under the influence of his wife Grace, sacked Emmerson Mnangagwa <a href="https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2017/11/07/vp-mnangagwa-fired">as vice-president</a>. The Southern African Development Community did not need to intervene, and even the mediation mission it planned wasn’t required.</p>
<p>Instead, the Zimbabwe military acted, with the ruling party, Zanu-PF, to replace Mugabe with Mnangagwa. It did so peacefully, denying during the entire process that a coup was underway. The 93-year-old Mugabe, in office since 1980, initially refused to step down, but was finally removed both as president of the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2017-11-21-breaking--zimbabwes-president-robert-mugabe-has-resigned/">country and of the ruling party</a>.</p>
<p>The country will go to the polls in <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2017/05/earliest-election-date-july-23-2018/">mid-2018</a>, and Mnangagwa, who was confirmed in December 2017 as Zanu-PF’s presidential candidate, has said that the election will be credible, <a href="http://nehandaradio.com/2017/12/16/mnangagwa-promises-free-fair-elections/">free and fair</a>, but he has yet to confirm that he will allow international and other observers.</p>
<p>With the military more obviously involved in government than anywhere else in the region, Zimbabwe’s opposition parties divided, and with Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/morgan-tsvangirai-seriously-ill-11532872">seriously ill</a>, there is little likelihood that Zanu-PF or Mnangagwa will lose power.</p>
<h2>Angola</h2>
<p>In Angola José Eduardo dos Santos, suffering from ill-health, agreed in early 2017 to step down as president of the country. He nominated a man he thought would be a trusted successor, hoping to continue to wield influence as president of the ruling MPLA.</p>
<p>After elections for the National Assembly in August, <a href="https://theconversation.com/angolas-ruling-party-regains-power-but-faces-legitimacy-questions-83983">João Lourenço duly succeeded Dos Santos</a> as president. To widespread surprise, he began sacking the heads of some of the country’s key institutions. These included Dos Santos’s daughter, Isabel dos Santos, who was <a href="https://qz.com/1130420/africas-richest-woman-has-been-fired-from-angolas-state-oil-firm-by-the-new-president/">CEO of the state oil company Sonangol</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202404/original/file-20180118-29885-i4krt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, left, and his successor Joao Lourenco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Manuel de Almeida</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And in early 2018 her brother José Filomeno dos Santos, was removed as head of Angola’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42638761">sovereign wealth fund</a>. Their father’s influence was rapidly slipping away.</p>
<p>In Angola, as in Zimbabwe, a change of leader to one with a more reformist approach probably means that the ruling party has consolidated itself in power.</p>
<h2>South Africa</h2>
<p>In South Africa in December 2017 the leadership of the governing African National Congress (ANC) passed <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1762486/breaking-cyril-ramaphosa-is-the-new-anc-president/">from Jacob Zuma to Cyril Ramaphosa</a>, who thus became heir apparent to the presidency of the country. While there is no two-term limit for ANC presidents, Zuma had brought the ANC into discredit and Ramaphosa, despite having worked closely with Zuma as deputy president, was seen as the one who would curtail the corruption and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-threat-to-south-africas-democracy-runs-deeper-than-state-capture-78784">“state capture”</a>.</p>
<p>For now, Zuma remains president of the country until general elections due to be held by June 2019. The country waits to see whether, how and when Ramaphosa can <a href="https://theconversation.com/ramaphosa-should-end-the-presidential-merry-go-round-in-south-africa-90116">arrange to take over</a> as president of the country as well as of the ruling party.</p>
<h2>A presidential challenge defeated</h2>
<p>In Namibia, <a href="http://links.org.au/node/4190">Hage Geingob</a> had to meet a challenge to his continuing as leader of Swapo, the governing party, in <a href="https://www.newera.com.na/2017/07/10/swapo-elders-endorse-geingob-as-swapo-presidential-candidate/">November last year</a>. He was, however, confirmed in his position and will therefore be Swapo’s presidential candidate for the election scheduled to take place in November 2019.</p>
<p>Geingob supporters now fill all the key posts in his government, enabling him to make policy as he wishes. This is very different from South Africa, where the new ANC leadership remains divided and where Ramaphosa, when he becomes president of the country, will find it difficult to <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/when-will-zuma-go-its-a-matter-of-time-20171224-3">adopt new policies</a>.</p>
<h2>Malawi and Zambia</h2>
<p>Malawi must hold elections <a href="http://www.mec.org.mw/category/Steps_towards_2019.html">in 2019</a> and the contest for the presidency then has already begun. It is not known whether Joyce Banda, the former president and leader of one of the country’s leading political parties, will <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2015/12/30/malawi-why-wont-joyce-banda-come-home-2/">return from self-imposed exile</a> abroad to stand again. In 2017 she was formally charged with having been involved in the massive <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/malawi-issues-warrant-of-arrest-for-former-president-banda-20170731">“Cashgate’ corruption scandal”</a> that was uncovered while she was president.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202406/original/file-20180118-29888-1qdqaf3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zambian President Edgar Lungu.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters//Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Zambia, by contrast, where the next election is not due until 2021, the question is how Edgar Lungu, who took over the presidency after narrowly winning the presidential election in August 2016, will try to consolidate his power. </p>
<p>In 2017 Lungu became <a href="https://theconversation.com/lungu-tries-to-have-his-cake-and-eat-it-a-state-of-emergency-in-all-but-name-80628">more authoritarian</a>. Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of the main opposition United Party for National Development, was arrested on what were clearly trumped-up charges. These were only <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/08/16/knew-hhs-treason-charge-trumped-antonio-mwanza/">dropped in August</a> after interventions by the Secretary-General of the Commonwealth and inside Zambia by the <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/09/20/real-reasons-hh-released-jail/">local Catholic Archbishop</a>.</p>
<p>Lungu wants to serve a <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/11/05/no-third-term-president-lungu-gbm/">third term as president</a>, and the country’s Constitutional Court has been asked to <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/africa/2017-11-10-is-zambia-headed-for-a-constitutional-crisis/">rule on the matter</a>.</p>
<h2>Regional perspective</h2>
<p>Too often developments in one country are seen in isolation from similar ones elsewhere. Given that South Africa is the most important country in the region, how the Ramaphosa-Zuma poser is resolved will be significant for the region. Elsewhere, how presidents gain and lose, and try to consolidate their power, will help shape the continued stability of the region. </p>
<p>Will political tensions be managed internally, as in Zimbabwe in late 2017? Or will they require some kind of intervention by the Southern Africa Development Community, in the DRC and perhaps elsewhere, to prevent them from escalating? Throughout the region, contests for presidential power are likely to keep political passions on the boil.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89980/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Saunders does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Too often developments in one country are seen in isolation. In southern Africa events in one affect others in the region.Chris Saunders, Emeritus Professor, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/748542017-03-27T14:19:28Z2017-03-27T14:19:28ZMalawi’s plans for major electoral reform are way overdue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162343/original/image-20170324-12129-1rw3dmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malawi faces the biggest overhaul in its electoral system since the 1990s.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Malawi is set for a major overhaul of its winner-takes-all electoral system with far-reaching implications for the country, if ongoing efforts to reform the system bear fruit.</p>
<p>Any changes in the voting system will represent the biggest overhaul of the country’s electoral system since it became a multiparty state in <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.498.1503&rep=rep1&type=pdf">the mid 1990s</a>. This followed the end of one-party dictatorship under Kamuzu Banda, the country’s first post-colonial leader and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-drives-corruption-in-malawi-and-why-it-wont-disappear-soon-48183">“president for life”</a>. </p>
<p>A special Malawi Law Commission was given the task of reforming the country’s electoral laws. Following a year of investigation, it recently held a two-day multi-stakeholder conference to discuss the <a href="http://www.mesnmw.org/national-conference-on-electoral-reforms-in-malawi/">planned reforms</a>. Its main proposal is that the current <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11452839/What-is-the-First-Past-The-Post-voting-system.html">first-past-the-post (FPTP)</a> system of electing the president should be abolished.</p>
<p>I believe that the proposed new system would help reduce the toxic politics of regionalism in Malawi. It would also enhance national stability, which is the bedrock of any successful nation. But it isn’t without challenges, and would need the serious allocation of state resources to bring it about.</p>
<h2>Proposed changes</h2>
<p>The proposed new system - absolute majority - to replace the FPTP will require the winning candidate for president to get at least 51+ percent threshold of the national vote. </p>
<p>Political scientist at Catholic University, Nandini Patel, a participant at the conference, has <a href="http://mwnation.com/law-commission-proposes-scrapping-electoral-system">explained the proposal thus:</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In a situation where no presidential candidate secures the threshold, the recommendation is that there should be a runoff or double ballot where the top two candidates contest in the second round and the one who secures more votes is declared winner.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On the face of it, the proposal is straightforward and makes logical sense. Yet, this is complex than it appears and if adopted it would revolutionise the way local politics is done.</p>
<p>The FPTP has been been in place since <a href="http://mwnation.com/electing-a-president-by-majority-hard-options/">1994</a>, when Malawi embraced multiparty politics after doing away with Kamuzu Banda’s 30 years of dictatorship. Since then, a presidential candidate from a high-populated region is more or less assured of electoral victory because the FPTP system. </p>
<p>In the case of Malawi, the country’s Southern Region <a href="https://www.citypopulation.de/Malawi.html">has always had a higher population</a> than the Central and Northern administrative regions. Thus, all the country’s presidents since the dawn of democracy have come from that region; <a href="http://www.statehouse.mw/bakili-elson-muluzi/">Bakili Muluzi</a> (1994 - 2004), <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-erosion-of-democracy-in-malawi-president-bingu-wa-mutharikas-unholy-conversion/">Bingu wa Mutharika</a> (2004 - 2012), <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/04/201247163726657558.html">Joyce Banda</a> (2012 - 2014) and the incumbent, <a href="http://politicoscope.com/2015/10/29/malawi-arthur-peter-mutharika-biography-and-profile/">Peter Mutharika</a>, Bingu’s young brother, from 2014.</p>
<p>This may yet be a coincidence given that there is no study to back the hypothesis. But, the fact that the sitting President, Peter Mutharika, won the election with only <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/06/11/why-malawis-election-surprised-us-even-if-the-outcome-was-unsurprising/?utm_term=.e5137d7cf850">35%</a> of the national threshold strengthens the hypothesis.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>All things being equal, it should not matter where the state president comes from. Yet, as I have <a href="http://www.nyasatimes.com/reconditioning-the-national-psyche-for-a-better-malawi">previously argued</a>: the trend in Malawi is for the incumbent president to concentrate government development efforts in their own regions and districts of origins. </p>
<p>This makes those from other parts of the country feel aggrieved and short-changed. It’s for this reason that some members of the political elite in the country lodged serious calls for <a href="http://mwnation.com/elections-and-government-system/">federal system</a> of government, barely two months after Mutharika’s electoral victory in 2014.</p>
<p>Of course the late President, Bingu wa Mutharika initially came into office in 2004 <a href="http://africanelections.tripod.com/mw.html#2004_Presidential_Election">with only 36%</a> of the national threshold but managed to get a <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/109595/AfrobriefNo75.pdf">63%of the national threshold in 2009</a> to win his second term.</p>
<p>He got votes in all regions other than only the Southern Region where he comes from. </p>
<p>The proposals to end the advantage the FPTP gives to candidates from highly populated districts are already facing resistance from some in the governing party. Heatherwick Ntaba, President Mutharika’s special advisor has argued ca the proposed new system of electing the president is <a href="http://mwnation.com/law-commission-proposes-scrapping-electoral-system/">“unrealistic and wasteful.”</a>. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>there is no way we can attain legitimacy of people are talking about. Let us talk about the costs. In reality we are already struggling to conduct by-elections [in areas where MPs and local government councillors have died].</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Challenges</h2>
<p>The proposed absolute majority system will certainly have its own problems. But, Ntaba’s fears are self-serving as the current system benefits his political party. Given the country’s regionalism voting pattern, the new 51+ winning threshold would require presidential candidates to reach out to regions beyond their own regions in order to win the presidency. No single region can produce enough votes for 51+ winning threshold.</p>
<p>Presidential candidates will thus be forced to consider forming alliances with candidates from other regions. This would have a good unintended consequence as politicians would be forced to extend government developmental programmes beyond their owns regions. </p>
<p>This would also introduce Malawi to the dynamics of alliance politics, with all its unpredictability and possible infighting within the governing alliance, given that it leaves a room for alliances of convenience, that are not necessarily in the interest of the country. </p>
<p>Yet, the bigger picture is that the new policy would reduce grievances and the feelings of unfairness. In the past, these fuelled calls for the country to adopt a federal system of government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jimmy Kainja does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The proposed change to Malawi’s electoral system is straightforward and makes logical sense. Yet it’s more complex and if adopted would revolutionise local politics.Jimmy Kainja, Lecturer in Media and Communications, University of MalawiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.