tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/kashmir-border-dispute-31795/articlesKashmir border dispute – The Conversation2022-04-14T17:55:50Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1811332022-04-14T17:55:50Z2022-04-14T17:55:50ZWant to know why India has been soft on Russia? Take a look at its military, diplomatic and energy ties<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458180/original/file-20220414-12-8s11rq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C68%2C3494%2C2347&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A close relationship based on strategic needs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russian-president-vladimir-putin-and-indian-prime-minister-news-photo/1165923211?adppopup=true">Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As global democracies <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/04/1090746192/russia-has-drawn-international-condemnation-for-alleged-war-crimes">lined up to condemn</a> the actions of Russia in Ukraine, one country was less forthcoming in its criticism – and it was the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/11/india-russia-ukraine-war-diplomacy/">largest democracy of them all: India</a>.</p>
<p>Throughout the ongoing crisis, the government in India has carefully avoided taking an unequivocal position. It has <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-abstains-6th-7th-time-in-un-vote-on-ukraine-crisis-resolution-122032401586_1.html">abstained on every United Nations resolution</a> dealing with the matter and refused to join the international community in economic measures against Moscow, prompting a <a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2022/mar/31/lavrovs-india-visit-us-warns-against-circumventing-sanctions-against-russia-uk-puts-emphasis-on-i-2436416.html">warning from the U.S.</a> over potentially circumventing sanctions. Even statements from India condemning the reported mass killing of Ukrainian civilians <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61006169">stopped short of apportioning blame</a> on any party, instead calling for an impartial investigation.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/faculty/ganguly-sumit.html">scholar of Indian foreign and security policy</a>, I know that understanding India’s stance on the war in Ukraine is complex. In considerable part, India’s decision to avoid taking a clear-cut position stems from a dependence on Russia on a host of issues – diplomatic, military and energy-related.</p>
<h2>Moscow as strategic partner</h2>
<p>This stance is not entirely new. On a range of fraught global issues, India has long avoided adopting a firm position based on its <a href="https://mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm?20349/History+and+Evolution+of+NonAligned+Movement">status as a nonaligned state</a> – one of a number of countries that is <a href="https://mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm?20349/History+and+Evolution+of+NonAligned+Movement">not formally allied to any power bloc</a>.</p>
<p>From a strategic standpoint today, decision-makers in New Delhi believe that they can ill afford to alienate Russia because they count on Moscow to veto any adverse United Nations Security Council resolution on the <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/conflict-unending/9780231123693">fraught question of the disputed region of Kashmir</a>. Since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-and-pakistan-fought-3-wars-over-kashmir-heres-why-international-law-falls-short-to-solve-this-territorial-dispute-164672#:%7E:text=India%20and%20Pakistan%20fought%20the,line%20went%20right%20through%20Kashmir.">three wars over Kashmir</a>, and the region continues to be a source of tension.</p>
<p>Harking back to the days of the Soviet Union, India has <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/six-times-when-the-soviet-veto-came-to-indias-rescue/articleshow/89941338.cms">relied on Russia’s veto</a> at the U.N. to protect itself from any adverse statement on Kashmir. For example, during the East Pakistani crisis of 1971 – which led to the creation of Bangladesh – the <a href="https://hindustannewshub.com/india-news/1957-to-1971-russia-imposed-veto-power-6-times-in-the-security-council-for-india-america-protested-every-time/">Soviets protected India from censure</a> at the U.N., vetoing a resolution demanding the withdrawal of troops from the disputed region.</p>
<p>In all, the Soviets and Russia have used their veto power <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/six-times-when-the-soviet-veto-came-to-indias-rescue/articleshow/89941338.cms">six times to protect India</a>. India has not had to rely on Russia for a veto since the end of the Cold War. But with tension over Kashmir still high amid sporadic fighting, New Delhi will want to ensure that Moscow is on its side should it come before the Security Council again.</p>
<p>In large part, India’s close relationship with Russia stems from Cold War allegiances. India drifted into the Soviet orbit mostly as a counter to <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1901531">America’s strategic alliance with Pakistan</a>, India’s subcontinental adversary. </p>
<p>India is also hopeful of Russian support – or at least neutrality – in its <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2022/02/21/the--lesser-known-border-disputechina-and-india/?sh=70567797192d">long-standing border dispute</a> with the People’s Republic of China. India and China share a border of more than 2,000 miles (near 3,500 km), the location of which has been contested for 80 years, including during <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/06/17/as-india-and-china-clash-jfks-forgotten-crisis-is-back/">a war in 1962</a> that failed to settle the matter.</p>
<p>Above all, India does not want Russia to side with China should there be further clashes in the Himalayas, especially since the border dispute has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/25/china-fm-india-surprise-trip-first-since-2020-border-clashes">again come to the fore since 2020</a>, with significant skirmishes between the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army. </p>
<h2>Russia as supplier of weapons</h2>
<p>India is also acutely dependent on Russia for a range of weaponry. In fact, 60% to 70% of India’s conventional arsenal is of <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">either Soviet or Russian origin</a>.</p>
<p>Over the past decade, New Delhi has sought to significantly <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2014/08/india-diversifying-arms-purchases/">diversify its weapons acquisitions</a>. To that end, it has purchased more than <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/us-looking-to-ramp-up-arms-sales-to-india-including-heavy-lifting-drones-report/articleshow/77363224.cms?from=mdr">US$20 billion worth of military equipment from the U.S.</a> over the past decade or so. Nevertheless, it is still in no position to walk away from Russia as far as weapons sales are concerned. </p>
<p>To compound matters, Russia and India have developed close military manufacturing ties. For nearly two decades, the two countries have <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/12/new-brahmos-manufacturing-center-in-india-to-produce-up-to-100-cruise-missiles-per-year/">co-produced the highly versatile BrahMos missile</a>, which can be fired from ships, aircraft or land.</p>
<p>India recently received its <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/01/28/philippines-signs-deal-for-brahmos-supersonic-anti-ship-missile/">first export order for the missile</a>, from the Philippines. This defense link with Russia could be severed only at considerable financial and strategic cost to India. </p>
<p>Also, Russia, unlike any Western country including the United States, has been willing to share certain forms of weapons technology with India. For example, Russia has <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2019/03/08/india-signs-3-billion-contract-with-russia-for-lease-of-a-nuclear-submarine/">leased an Akula-class nuclear submarine to India</a>. No other country has been willing to offer India equivalent weaponry, in part over concerns that the technology will be shared with Russia. </p>
<p>In any case, Russia is able to provide India with high-technology weaponry at prices significantly lower than any Western supplier. Not surprisingly, despite significant American opposition, India <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2018/10/5/india-signs-s-400-deal-with-russia-sidestepping-us-opposition">chose to acquire</a> the Russian S-400 missile defense battery.</p>
<h2>Energy reliance</h2>
<p>It isn’t just India’s defense industry that is reliant on Moscow. India’s energy sector is also inextricably tied to Russia.</p>
<p>Since the George W. Bush administration <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jul/23/india.nuclear">ended India’s status as a nuclear pariah</a> – a designation it had held for testing nuclear weapons outside the ambit of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty – India has developed a civilian nuclear program.</p>
<p>Although the sector <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/india.aspx">remains relatively small</a> in terms of total energy production, it is growing – and Russia has emerged as a key partner. After the U.S.-India civilian nuclear agreement of 2008 allowed India to participate in normal civilian nuclear commerce, Russia quickly signed an agreement to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-russia-nuclear/russia-signs-pact-for-six-nuclear-reactors-on-new-site-in-india-idUSKCN1MF217">build six nuclear reactors in the country</a>.</p>
<p>Neither <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/why-is-indiainvesting-in-nuclear-energy-when-the-whole-world-is-experiencing-a-nuclearmeltdown/articleshow/58094501.cms">the U.S. nor any other Western country</a> has proved willing to invest in India’s civilian nuclear energy sector because of a rather restrictive nuclear liability law, which holds that the manufacturer of the plant or any of its components would be liable in the event of an accident.</p>
<p>But since the Russian government has said it will assume the necessary liability in the event of a nuclear accident, it has been able to enter the nuclear power sector in India. Western governments, however, are unwilling to provide such guarantees to their commercial companies.</p>
<p>Away from nuclear power, India also has invested in Russian oil and gas fields. India’s state-run Oil and Natural Gas Commission, for example, has long been involved <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB981918172359077235">in the extraction of fossil fuels</a> off Sakhalin Island, a Russian island in the Pacific Ocean. And given that India imports close to 85% of its crude oil requirements from abroad – albeit only a small fraction from Russia – it is <a href="https://newsonair.com/2022/03/18/india-highly-dependent-on-imports-for-meeting-its-energy-requirements/">hardly in a position to shut off the Russian spigot</a>.</p>
<p>U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61042314">recently noted</a> that India’s “relationship with Russia has developed over decades at a time when the United States was not able to be a partner to India” and suggested that Washington was prepared now to be that partner. But given the diplomatic, military and energy considerations, it is difficult to see India deviating from its balancing act over Russia any time soon.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly has received funding from the US Department of State.</span></em></p>India has stood apart from other major democracies in failing to offer a full-throated condemnation of Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Here’s why.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1646722021-08-24T12:17:24Z2021-08-24T12:17:24ZIndia and Pakistan fought 3 wars over Kashmir - here’s why international law falls short to solve this territorial dispute<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415876/original/file-20210812-15866-en4zio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5303%2C3386&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The scene in Srinagar, in Indian-administered Kashmir, after an Aug. 10, 2021, grenade attack by militants that wounded at least nine civilians. Kashmir has experienced sporadic violence for more than seven decades, including three wars.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indian-government-forces-are-seen-through-a-broken-glass-of-news-photo/1234603051?adppopup=true">Yawar Nazir/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An armed conflict in Kashmir has thwarted all attempts to solve it for three quarters of a century. </p>
<p>Kashmir, an 85,806-square-mile valley between the snowcapped Himalaya and Karakoram mountain ranges, is a contested region between India, Pakistan and China. Both India and Pakistan lay claim to all of Kashmir, but each administers only part of it.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Kashmir." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415904/original/file-20210812-14-hduc4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of Kashmir.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/84/Kashmir_map_big.jpg">Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, 2002, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the British rule of India, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/kashmir-and-the-forgotten-history-of-indias-princely-states/">Kashmir was a feudal state with its own regional ruler</a>. In 1947, the Kashmiri ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, agreed that his kingdom would join India under certain conditions. Kashmir would retain political and economic sovereignty, while its defense and external affairs would be dealt with by India.</p>
<p>But Pakistan, newly created by the British, <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/india-pakistan-war">laid claim to a majority-Muslim part of Kashmir along its border</a>. India and Pakistan fought <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan">the first of three major wars</a> over Kashmir in 1947. It resulted in the creation of a United Nations-brokered “<a href="https://unmogip.unmissions.org/background">ceasefire line</a>” that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-263B-8246">divided Indian and Pakistani</a> territory. The line went right through Kashmir. </p>
<p>Despite the establishment of that border, presently known as the “Line of Control,” two more wars over Kashmir followed, in 1965 and 1999. An estimated <a href="https://uca.edu/politicalscience/dadm-project/asiapacific-region/indiakashmir-1947-present/">20,000</a> people died in these three wars.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/international_law">International law</a>, a set of rules and regulations created after World War II to govern all the world’s nation-states, is supposed to resolve <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1227&context=dlj">territorial disputes</a> like Kashmir. Such disputes are mainly dealt with by the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0962629895001115">International Court of Justice</a>, a United Nations tribunal that rules on contested borders and war crimes. </p>
<p>Yet international law has repeatedly failed to resolve the Kashmir conflict, as my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Tpv9XxcAAAAJ">research on Kashmir and international law</a> shows.</p>
<h2>International law fails in Kashmir</h2>
<p>The U.N. has made many failed attempts to restore dialogue after fighting between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, which today is home to a diverse population of <a href="https://www.populationu.com/in/jammu-and-kashmir-population">13.7 million</a> Muslims, Hindus and people of other faiths.</p>
<p>In 1949, the U.N. sent a <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/unmogip">peacekeeping mission to both countries</a>. U.N. peace missions were not as robust as its peacekeeping operations are today, and international troops proved unable to protect the sanctity of the borders between India and Pakistan.</p>
<p>In 1958, the <a href="http://web.stanford.edu/group/tomzgroup/pmwiki/uploads/2626-1952-10-K-a-AJG.pdf">Graham Commission</a>, led by a U.N.-designated mediator, Frank Graham, recommended to the U.N. Security Council that India and Pakistan agree to demilitarize in Kashmir and hold a referendum to decide the status of the territory. </p>
<p>India rejected that plan, and both India and Pakistan disagreed on how many troops would remain along their border in Kashmir if they did demilitarize. Another war broke out in 1965. </p>
<p>In 1999, India and Pakistan <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/all-you-need-to-know-about-kargil-war/kargil-vijay-diwas/slideshow/59772216.cms">battled along the Line of Control in the Kargil district of Kashmir</a>, leading the United States to intervene diplomatically, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/07/24/how-the-1999-kargil-conflict-redefined-us-india-ties/">siding with India</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45877">official U.S. policy</a> has been to prevent further escalation in the dispute. The U.S. government has offered several times to facilitate a <a href="https://www.american.edu/sis/faculty/upload/wanis-third-party-mediation-over-kashmir.pdf">mediation process over the contested territory</a>. </p>
<p>The latest U.S. president to make that offer was <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2019-07-30/united-states-cant-solve-kashmir-dispute">Donald Trump</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-conflict-is-not-just-a-border-dispute-between-india-and-pakistan-112824">conflict erupted in Kashmir in 2019</a>. The effort went nowhere. </p>
<h2>Why international law falls short</h2>
<p>Why is the Kashmir conflict too politically difficult for a internationally brokered compromise? </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Newspaper clipping from the Hindustani Times with headline 'KASHMIR ACCEDES TO INDIA'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414025/original/file-20210731-17-3305gi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The maharaja of Kashmir agreed to join India in 1947.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For one, India and Pakistan don’t even agree on whether international law applies in Kashmir. While Pakistan considers the Kashmir conflict an international dispute, India says it is a “<a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/kashmir-a-bilateral-issue-india-tells-us-after-trump-offers-help-1639126-2020-01-22">bilateral issue</a>” and an “internal matter.” </p>
<p>India’s stance narrows the purview of international law. For example, regional organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation cannot intervene on the Kashmir issue – by convening a regional dialogue, for example – because <a href="http://www.covid19-sdmc.org/sites/default/files/charter.pdf">its charter</a> prohibits involvement in “bilateral and contentious issues.”</p>
<p>But India’s claim that Kashmir is Indian territory is hotly debated. </p>
<p>In 2019, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49234708">the Indian government abolished</a> the <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5c06adb33c3a53e7dfe35baa/t/5e53eb9f1408117e3ba815ef/1582558112461/Mariya+SC+Kashmir.pdf">1954 law that gave Kashmir autonomous status</a> and militarily occupied the territory. At least <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/9/india-soldiers-kashmir-burhan-wani-anniversary">500,000 Indian troops</a> are in Kashmir today.</p>
<p>Pakistan’s government denounced the move as “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/article-370-what-is-happening-in-kashmir-india-revokes-special-status.html">illegal</a>,” and many Kashmiris on both sides of the Line of Control say India violated its 1947 accession deal with Maharaja Singh. </p>
<p>The U.N. still officially considers Kashmir a <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/kashmir-and-the-un-security-council/1971039">disputed area</a>. But India has held firm that Kashmir is part of India, under central government control, worsening already bad relations between India and Pakistan.</p>
<h2>Military coups and terror</h2>
<p>Another obstacle to peace between the two nations: Pakistan’s military. </p>
<p>In 1953, Indian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/columns/did-jawaharlal-nehru-mishandle-kashmir/story-Vvo1NBt6ZMbFT86wJ1dINP.html">Jawaharlal Nehru</a> and Pakistani Prime Minister Mohammad Ali Bogra agreed in principle to resolve the Kashmir problem through a U.N. mediation or with an International Court of Justice proceeding. </p>
<p>That never happened, because the Pakistani military overthrew Ali Bogra <a href="https://theprint.in/india/governance/as-pakistan-votes-today-theres-hope-that-finally-a-pm-will-complete-a-full-term/87962/">in 1955</a>.</p>
<p>Several more Pakistani military regimes have interrupted Pakistani democracy since then. India believes these non-democratic regimes lack credibility to negotiate with it. And, generally, Pakistan’s military governments have preferred the battlefield over political dialogue. </p>
<p>Terrorism is another critical factor making the Kashmir situation more complex. Several radical Islamist groups, including Lashkar-e-Toiba and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47249982">Jaish-e-Mohammed</a>, operate in Kashmir, based primarily on the Pakistani side. </p>
<p>Since the late 1980s the terrorist groups have conducted targeted strikes and attacks on <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/18/asia/india-kashmir-attack/index.html">Indian government and military facilities</a>, leading the Indian military to <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-conducted-surgical-strikes-on-terror-launch-pads-on-loc-significant-casualties-caused-dgmo/articleshow/54579855.cms?from=mdr">retaliate in Pakistani territory</a>. Pakistan then alleges that India has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/14/india-pakistan-repeat-war-of-words-over-cross-border">breached the borderline</a>, defying international treaties like the <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/its-time-for-india-and-pakistan-to-walk-the-talk/article28739436.ece">1972 Simla Agreement</a> to conduct its anti-terror attacks. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Soldiers stand in a military truck with big mountains in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415899/original/file-20210812-18-a5vp1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415899/original/file-20210812-18-a5vp1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415899/original/file-20210812-18-a5vp1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415899/original/file-20210812-18-a5vp1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415899/original/file-20210812-18-a5vp1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415899/original/file-20210812-18-a5vp1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415899/original/file-20210812-18-a5vp1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">India has increased its military presence in Kashmir to at least 500,000 troops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indian-army-convoy-carrying-reinforcement-and-supplies-news-photo/1228312306?adppopup=true">Yawar Nazir/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Intractable struggles</h2>
<p>In many cases, treaties and international court decisions <a href="https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/1/issue/1/enforcing-international-law">cannot be enforced</a>. There is no international police force to help implement international law. </p>
<p>If a country ignores an International Court of Justice ruling, the other party in that court case may have recourse to the Security Council, which can pressure or even <a href="https://www.un.org/en/our-work/uphold-international-law">sanction a nation to comply with international law</a>. </p>
<p>But that rarely happens, as such resolution processes are highly political and any permanent Security Council member can veto them. </p>
<p>And when conflicting parties are more inclined to view a conflict through the lens of domestic law – as India views Kashmir and Israel views the Palestinian territories – they can argue that international law simply does not apply. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Kashmir is not the only contested territory where international law has failed. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-world-stop-israel-and-hamas-from-committing-war-crimes-7-questions-answered-about-international-law-155105">Israeli-Palestinian conflict</a> over the Gaza and West Bank territories is another example. For decades, both the U.N. and the United States have repeatedly and unsuccessfully intervened there in an effort <a href="https://theconversation.com/apartheid-claim-israel-and-the-verdict-of-international-law-160069">to establish mutually acceptable borderlines</a> and bring peace. </p>
<p>International law has grown and strengthened since its creation in the 1940s, but there are still many problems it cannot solve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bulbul Ahmed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kashmir has been in conflict since 1947, despite repeated UN and US interventions. An expert in security studies explains why international law has failed to keep the peace.Bulbul Ahmed, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Security and Strategic Studies, Bangladesh University of ProfessionalsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1204122019-08-08T21:04:23Z2019-08-08T21:04:23ZCall the crime in Kashmir by its name: Ongoing genocide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287382/original/file-20190808-144888-d3v005.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C0%2C5184%2C3406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An Indian paramilitary soldier checks the bag of a Kashmiri man during curfew in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir. The lives of millions in India's only Muslim-majority region have been upended recently.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Dar Yasin)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/30/asia/kashmir-explainer/index.html">The Kashmir conflict</a>, referred to as a “territorial dispute,” has been central to tense relations in Asia for more than 70 years, particularly between the two nuclear powers of India and Pakistan.</p>
<p>Tensions have escalated between the countries many times in the past and have sometimes resulted in military confrontation.</p>
<p>Kashmiris are an Indigenous people living under colonial occupation who have been fighting for their right to practise sovereignty through self-determination and self-government. Multiple colonial borders run through the Kashmiri peoples’ territories (Indian, Pakistani and Chinese), separating families and friends. </p>
<p>Kashmir is the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/#5ff588423124">most militarized region in the world</a>, with more than half a million armed Indian troops deployed in the Indian-administered Kashmir over the past 30 years. </p>
<p>They are occupying Kashmir through use of colonial war measures acts, including the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/10/19/india-repeal-armed-forces-special-powers-act">Armed Forces Special Powers Act</a>, the <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6b52014.html">Public Safety Act</a> and martial laws that have given Indian troops complete impunity. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=/Documents/Countries/IN/DevelopmentsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf&action=default&DefaultItemOpen=1">Gross human rights violations</a> have occurred under their watch, according to a 2018 United Nations report. They include <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=/Documents/Countries/IN/DevelopmentsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf&action=default&DefaultItemOpen=1">gang rapes by military</a> and mass disappearances of approximately <a href="http://apdpkashmir.com/">8,000 to 10,000 people</a>. As many as <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-36624520081121">100,000</a> Kashmiris have been killed and several thousand <a href="http://jkccs.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/TORTURE-Indian-State%E2%80%99s-Instrument-of-Control-in-Indian-administered-Jammu-and-Kashmir.pdf">wounded, blinded and maimed, including through torture tactics in custody</a></p>
<p>As a result of the war, hundreds of thousands of Kashmiri (Muslims, as well as Sikhs and Pandits) have left Kashmir, and become internationally displaced and dispossessed following the 72-year Indian occupation.</p>
<h2>India’s latest invasion</h2>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/06/india-kashmir-crackdown-region-delhi-autonomy">Aug. 4, India ordered all tourists and outside students to leave Kashmir effective immediately</a>. They simultaneously implemented emergency measures to protect tourists and Indian Hindu <em>yathris</em> doing an annual Hindu pilgrimage. It also airlifted almost 10,000 more soldiers into Kashmir within a matter of two days. </p>
<p>Approximately 28,000 additional armed troops then invaded Kashmir Valley in trucks and tanks.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/india-abolishes-kashmir-special-status-rush-decree-190805061331958.html">Aug. 5</a>, the Indian Home Minister Amit Shah told parliament that the president had signed a decree abolishing Section 35a and Article 370 of the Indian constitution.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-revokes-kashmirs-autonomy-risking-yet-another-war-with-pakistan-121485">India revokes Kashmir’s autonomy, risking yet another war with Pakistan</a>
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<p>The Indian government eliminated Kashmir’s special status in an effort to assimilate the Kashmiri people, extinguish their unique Indigenous title to land and claim their land as federal territory. This obliterated any last set of rights Kashmiris enjoyed as a semi-autonomous people in the Indian union of states. </p>
<p>Jammu and Kashmir State <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/parliament-approves-bill-for-bifurcation-of-j-k-into-two-union-territories-1565067616715.html">has been bifurcated</a> into an Indian federal union territory. </p>
<p>These unilateral moves by the Indian state obliterate the rights Kashmiris had as citizens of India as well as their Indigenous rights. Under the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples.html">United Nations Rights of Indigenous People (UNDRIP)</a>, India is obligated to ensure decisions pertaining to Kashmiri are made with them, using the principle of <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/publications/2016/10/free-prior-and-informed-consent-an-indigenous-peoples-right-and-a-good-practice-for-local-communities-fao/">Free, Prior, Informed Consent (FPIC)</a> that recognizes Kashmiris as a sovereign Indigenous people.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples.html">UNDRIP</a> was <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples.html">adopted and signed</a> by India, China and Pakistan in 2007.</p>
<h2>Millions under house arrest</h2>
<p>Since Aug. 4, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/reason-fear-safety-kashmiri-india-190805143607160.html">India has eliminated all access to and communication with Kashmir</a>. The internet, mobile and landlines have been severed, and <a href="https://www.census2011.co.in/census/state/jammu+and+kashmir.html">14.7 million people</a> have no access to essentials like food and medical support while Indian advances to take full control of their land using military power.</p>
<p>Aside from extremely rare media, Kashmiris have not been able to communicate with each other or with the outside world. The entire Jammu and Kashmir region is essentially imprisoned under house arrest.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abebooks.com/9780199455263/Article-370-Constitutional-History-Jammu-0199455260/plp">Since 1949, Article 370</a> has granted the state of Jammu and Kashmir semi-autonomous constitutional status. Under its provisions, the region has its own legislative assembly, constitution, flag and independence in all matters except communications, foreign affairs and defence. </p>
<p>Revoking this status is the latest attempt to annihilate the Kashmiri people, extinguish their rights and eliminate their linguistic, social, cultural, economic and political existence as Indigenous people. The legality of dissolving the special status is being challenged by India’s <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/kashmir-article-370-scrapping-constitutional-expert-reacts-noorani_in_5d47e58de4b0aca341206135?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMZkO9yMPVYiRtn0IlbBjgvJRyJ-7UDrHxoR2feaA9nrwGwQbc-YkQpzl7OLAwLbYFuQVJVuc_PPzWk0d9f6D-e5zrEMNcDGCnHQXBYbz6WHAX5VGNMFiTKBpPUVZD5GA30TvXZ-r9vigm0w2_lJ1Q5T-TvBvjqJ2XL_lvGy5X1K">legal and constitutional experts</a>, and goes against the country’s Supreme Court rulings of recent years.</p>
<p>With these recent changes to Article 370 and Section 35a, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/05/indias-settler-colonial-project-kashmir-takes-disturbing-turn/?noredirect=on">India permits</a> the permanent <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/and-kashmiris-shall-immediately-cease-to-exist-28778">settlement</a> of non-Kashmiris in Kashmiri land. Membership and settlement had previously been determined by the Kashmiri constitution. Non-Kashmiris are now allowed to purchase, acquire and permanently settle on land in Kashmir. </p>
<p>Under these changes, the <a href="https://medium.com/@hotgossips/who-are-gujjar-bakarwals-a6b0b4c72ece">Gujjar-Bakarwal</a> people in Kashmir, for example, are immediately at greater risk. They migrate seasonally with animals on pastoral grounds, caring for both the animals and the land. India’s laws concerning land as individual property will not permit them to continue living on the land as they’ve historically done.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287349/original/file-20190808-144873-da5sl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287349/original/file-20190808-144873-da5sl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287349/original/file-20190808-144873-da5sl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287349/original/file-20190808-144873-da5sl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287349/original/file-20190808-144873-da5sl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287349/original/file-20190808-144873-da5sl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287349/original/file-20190808-144873-da5sl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Gujjar-Bakarwals are seen in this 2004 photo taken in Kashmir.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>These changes will also result in a reconfiguration of the population in Kashmir. Kashmiris have long speculated that India intends to settle military and paramilitary families in Kashmir. As a Kashmiri, I have personally already seen semi-permanent military colonies in Kashmir.</p>
<h2>Using an Indigenous framework</h2>
<p>Indigenous peoples in Asia like the Kashmiri have long faced threats to their existence and their inherent rights, <a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/land-and-cultural-survival-communal-rights-indigenous-peoples-asia">particularly “relational” land rights</a>, as colonizing relations between Indigenous peoples and settler nations make land encroachment profitable and treat Indigenous lives as disposable. </p>
<p>Media, academics, legal and policy analysts barely touch on Indigenous rights, as outlined in the UNDRIP, when discussing Kashmir. But the Indigenous rights framework is necessary to accurately assess the distinct set of rights abuses Kashmiris face. India is in violation of multiple international human rights conventions and declarations it’s signed that apply to Kashmir. </p>
<p>Under UNDRIP, India is obligated to consult with Indigenous people rather than make decisions that impact them unilaterally, and to grant them the greatest possible opportunity for self-government and self-determination. </p>
<p>This right of Kashmiris to determine their future was also affirmed by a <a href="https://www.abebooks.com/9780199455263/Article-370-Constitutional-History-Jammu-0199455260/plp">UN resolution on Kashmir in 1948</a>. But this resolution limited self-determination to a decision on whether to accede to India or Pakistan. </p>
<p>There has been a reluctance to use the term genocide to describe the events that have unfolded in Kashmir over the decades. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287437/original/file-20190808-144868-1jqbtid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287437/original/file-20190808-144868-1jqbtid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287437/original/file-20190808-144868-1jqbtid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287437/original/file-20190808-144868-1jqbtid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287437/original/file-20190808-144868-1jqbtid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287437/original/file-20190808-144868-1jqbtid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287437/original/file-20190808-144868-1jqbtid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In this May 2018 photo, supporters of separatist People’s Political Party (PPP) Leader Hilal Ahmad War hold banners and shout slogans during a protest against the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Srinagar in Indian-controlled Kashmir.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Dar Yasin)</span></span>
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<p>But the <a href="https://www.un.org/ar/preventgenocide/adviser/pdf/osapg_analysis_framework.pdf">legal definition of genocide</a> fits. The Kashmiri people have been targeted for a demographic transformation on their territory by an outsider group by introducing mass permanent settlements of outsiders. The outsider group is the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/06/asia/kashmir-india-modi-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html">Hindu nationalist</a> Indian state under the leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4b68c89c-711c-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5">Prime Minister Narendra Modi</a>.</p>
<h2>Targeted for being Muslim</h2>
<p>As a group, Kashmiris are additionally being targeted because they are predominantly Muslim as well as culturally and linguistically distinct. Muslims are <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/divisive-policies-india-hurt-economic-growth-190306214221486.html">treated as threats in India,</a> including in Kashmir. They have been targeted for elimination in part through military force and <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/jammu-and-kashmir-suffered-rs-16000-crore-loss-during-kashmir-unrest/articleshow/56446043.cms?from=mdr">economic oppression</a>.</p>
<p>Kashmiri youth have been <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/jk-cops-disguise-as-stone-pelters-to-catch-real-culprits/articleshow/65728947.cms">criminalized and put into state custody</a> for “reform” programming for throwing stones to protest <a href="https://books.google.co.in/books?id=BvpUCgAAQBAJ&pg=PA88&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">the injustices they face</a> and the impunity of the Indian military. This treatment is a violation of the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/crc.aspx">UN Convention on the Rights of a Child</a>.</p>
<p>Refusal to call out genocide has happened before, in Nazi Germany, Rwanda and elsewhere. The <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%2078/volume-78-i-1021-english.pdf">United Nations Convention on Genocide</a> states that it must never be permitted again. The convention also states that at-risk groups must be protected. </p>
<p>Instead, there has been an eerie silence from world leaders on naming the unfolding crime in Kashmir.</p>
<p>Kashmiris have been the guardians, gardeners and caretakers of Kashmiri land, water, each other and non-human life. Regardless of colonial borders, what is most fundamental is what Kashmiris, as a sovereign Indigenous people, want. </p>
<p>According to a popular Kashmiri protest chant that has reverberated through Kashmiri history:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“Jis Kashmir ko khoon se seencha! Woh Kashmir hamara hai!”</em> “The Kashmir that has been drenched in our blood! It belongs to us, the Kashmiris!” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120412/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Binish Ahmed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the world avoids calling the crime by its name, Kashmiris are facing an ongoing genocide.Binish Ahmed, PhD candidate, Public Policy, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1216572019-08-08T21:04:21Z2019-08-08T21:04:21ZIndia’s colossal blunder in Kashmir<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287409/original/file-20190808-144843-1cr9y9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=100%2C0%2C4912%2C3360&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indian paramilitary soldiers stand guard on a deserted street during curfew in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir, Aug. 8, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Dar Yasin)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a stunningly dangerous, undemocratic and secretive move, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/05/indias-settler-colonial-project-kashmir-takes-disturbing-turn/">repealed Articles 370 and 35a</a> of the Indian Constitution using a presidential order. The government failed to involve all stakeholders in the restive state of Jammu and Kashmir before making its move.</p>
<p>What’s known as <em>President’s Rule</em> in India — the suspension of state government and imposition of direct central government rule in a state — was imposed in Jammu and Kashmir in December 2018. It was used as the rationale to stealthily push through this latest policy in parliament.</p>
<p>Since there’s no legislative assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, the Modi government and Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah cleverly used Article 367 to make the argument that any changes to the status of the state <a href="https://thewire.in/politics/constitution-torn-to-shreds-as-rss-indulges-article-370-fantasy-in-kashmir">could be considered legitmate under presidential decree.</a></p>
<p>Article 370 was created to bind the state of Jammu and Kashmir to India in 1947, after Maharaja Hari Singh signed what was known as the Instrument of Accession. <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/understanding-articles-370-35a-jammu-kashmir-indian-constitution-5610996/">The article gave the region significant autonomy</a>. </p>
<p>The state could have its own constitution, flag and make laws. New Delhi had control over matters of foreign affairs, defence and communications. Article 370 states that Article 1 of the Indian Constitution applies to Kashmir. </p>
<p>However, under the Indian constitution Article 370 cannot be amended without the approval of the constitutent assembly. <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jammu-kashmir-trifurcation-article-370-1576852-2019-08-03">Article 370(3) states</a> that “ … the President may, by public notification, declare that this Article shall cease to be operative or shall be operative only with such exceptions and modifications and from such date as he may specify, provided that the recommendation of the Constituent Assembly of the State … shall be necessary before the President issues such a notification.”</p>
<p>Without any warning, India’s parliament in New Delhi increased troop levels, arrested elected representatives and effectively imprisoned approximately eight million Kashmiris. Indian parliament divided the state into two separate Union Territories — Ladakh, without a legislature, and Jammu and Kashmir, with a legislature. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-conflict-is-not-just-a-border-dispute-between-india-and-pakistan-112824">Kashmir conflict is not just a border dispute between India and Pakistan</a>
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<p>In the days since this draconian measure was passed, Kashmir remains under lockdown, effectively under siege, with a heavy military presence and no sign of normalcy. This development will likely have disastrous consequences for India and the region. </p>
<h2>Unilateral action</h2>
<p>This recent move was made without deliberating with Kashmir’s representatives. The Modi government’s decision to turn a state into a union territory in a single unilateral stroke, without seeking the approval of all Kashmiris, carries serious legal ramifications and constitutional questions. </p>
<p>Does revoking Article 370 make Jammu and Kashmir an independent state? And in that case, does it make India an occupier? Because as long as Article 370 was tied to the Indian Constitution, India could still maintain its legitimate claims to Kashmir. </p>
<p>Absent this article, there’s now a question mark on India’s legal claim to Kashmir. Another legal snag the government is likely facing is that Article 370 was considered a temporary provision only to be changed or amended by the Jammu and Kashmir Constituent Assembly. However, this assembly was dissolved in 1957, effectively <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/understanding-articles-370-35a-jammu-kashmir-indian-constitution-5610996/">making Article 370 permanent</a>. </p>
<p>In 2018, the Indian Supreme Court further stated that Article 370 had acquired permanent status, making its abolition almost impossible.</p>
<h2>Security</h2>
<p>Second, this terribly ill-conceived step emboldens Pakistan’s claims to Kashmir. It plays <a href="https://www.dailyo.in/politics/militancy-in-kashmir-isis-in-kashmir-hizb-ul-mujahideen-ansar-ghazwat-ul-hind/story/1/31724.html">right into the hands of terrorist groups</a> like Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba and al Qaida’s local unit, Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind, providing them with the ideal cause to radicalize Kashmiri youth. </p>
<p>By holding its own citizens hostage, the Modi government has turned previously pro-India Kashmiris against India. From a national security perspective, this is a stunningly ill-advised and appalling step.</p>
<p>Further, the Modi government has repealed Article 370 on grounds that “integration” of Jammu and Kashmir is the goal to bring peace, stability and economic prosperity in the region. Contrary to the stated objective, the evidence proves otherwise. </p>
<p>Now that Kashmir is a union territory of India, will it still be treated separately from the rest of India with a continued massive military presence remaining in the state? The case for integration, peace and prosperity cannot be made through brute force. </p>
<p>But that’s exactly what the Modi government has accomplished. As far as development is concerned, who will invest in a heavily militarized region? </p>
<h2>Hindu nationalism</h2>
<p>Fourth, <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jammu-kashmir-special-status-bjp-1577343-2019-08-05">revoking Article 370 has always been part of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) manifesto</a>. Essentially, the party’s intent to revoke Article 370 is to redress the wrongs done to Kashmiri Pandits, the Hindu minority that was <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/a-forgotten-ethnic-cleansing/218734">ethnically cleansed</a> at the start of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539071?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Kashmir insurgency against the Indian government</a> that began in the late 1980s. While Pandits are well within their rights to ask for resettlement, this latest order aims to accomplish the insidious goal of creating a predominantly Hindu majoritarian state. </p>
<p>Revoking Articles 370 and 35a will now allow any Indian to reside in the state. This will potentially change the demographics heavily in favour of India’s Hindu majority.</p>
<p>The failure to include Kashmiri Muslims in deliberations and discussions on the matter will prove costly, and there will likely be catastrophic consequences for India. There is no reason for Kashmiri Muslims to trust India ever again. Violence, rebellion, dark days and a war with Pakistan are, in all likelihood, on the near horizon as a result of India’s latest move against Kashmiris.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121657/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Ray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Violence, rebellion, dark days and a war with Pakistan are likely on the horizon as a result of India’s latest move against Kashmiris.Ayesha Ray, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, King's CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1157332019-04-23T15:45:55Z2019-04-23T15:45:55ZIndia Tomorrow part 3: Kashmir<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269984/original/file-20190418-28084-nqn8uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As campaigning was gearing up for the 2019 Indian elections, there was a dangerous escalation in the long-simmering conflict between India and Pakistan. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/indian-security-forces-killed-kashmir-blast-reports-190214110644498.html">An attack</a> on an Indian military convoy in Pulwama in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in February 2019 killed more than 40 security personnel. </p>
<p>After a Pakistani-based militant group <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47249982">claimed responsibility</a>, India responded by <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47366718">launching air strikes</a> against suspected militant targets across the border in Pakistan and the world worried about the risk of war between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The tension eventually diffused, but it was a stark reminder of the ongoing conflict and what it means for India. </p>
<p>In the third episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow</a>, a series from The Conversation’s podcast The Anthill, we focus on Kashmir: its history, the lives of its people, and the conflict over its future.</p>
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<p>Kashmir has been the cause of tension between Pakistan and India since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-partition-of-india-happened-and-why-its-effects-are-still-felt-today-81766">Partition of India</a> in 1947. Sarah Ansari, a historian at Royal Holloway, University of London, explains what happened during Partition and why Jammu and Kashmir became a source of conflict. We also explore the significance of Article 370, the part of the Indian constitution which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir – and why some Indians <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/bjp-manifesto-2019-no-article-370-article-35a-1496655-2019-04-08">want to scrap it</a>. </p>
<p>Ather Zia, an anthropologist at the University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, explains what Kashmir means to her, and what life is like for Kashmiris today. “It’s my homeland and it’s also a place which is an open prison currently because of the situation that is prevailing,” she says. “People are living, but it’s under heavy repression.” She explains how her research is showing many Kashmiris have a long-held desire for independence. </p>
<p>We also find out what has happened in Kashmir since 2014 when Narendra Modi became prime minister of India, and his BJP party entered into a ruling coalition in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Sita Bali, a lecturer in international relations at Staffordshire University, says she thinks that the escalation – and subsequent de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan – could <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-and-pakistans-escalating-conflict-will-benefit-narendra-modi-ahead-of-elections-112570">benefit Modi</a> in the 2019 elections. And she explains what the nuclear element of the ongoing conflict means for the region: “This Pakistan problem, or the Kashmir problem, whichever way you choose to look at it, has always stood in the way of India’s relations in the whole region.”</p>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-tomorrow-part-3-podcast-transcript-115732">transcript of this episode</a> here, and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266588/original/file-20190329-71003-uc9saw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>Credits</strong></p>
<p><em>The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and Annabel Bligh. Editing by Alex Portfelix. Thank you to City, University of London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record The Anthill.</em></p>
<p><em>Picture source: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-mountain-view-sonamarg-jammu-kashmir-657391570?src=iKqyP7mSQFggecLhR1fF8A-1-0">khlongwangchao via Shutterstock</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Music: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Living_With_Trauma/Lee_Rosevere_-_Living_With_Trauma_-_05_Intervention">Intervention by Lee Rosevere</a>, <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Tranko/VA_-_Clinical_Jazz_excerpt_3/Flying_Cat_amp_Sitar">Flying Cat & Sitar by Tranko</a>, and <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Jahzzar/Super_1222/07_Endeavour">Endeavour by Jahzzar</a> all via <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/">Free Music Archive</a>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Archive news clips:</strong></p>
<p><em>Hum kya chahty Azadi (Kahmir), <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGcBZVCBSDQ">Mohtsim Billah</a></em></p>
<p><em>Narendra Modi’s first visit to Jammu and Kashmir as PM, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBp9QVBdPFc">Times Now</a></em></p>
<p><em>Kashmir witnesses worst violence in six years, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQXa6VS3Dts">Al Jazeera English</a></em></p>
<p><em>India Cheers Return Of Air Force Pilot Abhinandan Varthaman, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxnMK3Xb73U">NDTV</a></em> </p>
<p><a href="https://pca.st/5Hul"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321533/original/file-20200319-22598-afljnr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1" alt="Listen on Pocket Casts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://castbox.fm/channel/The-Anthill-id2625863?country=gb"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321531/original/file-20200319-22632-t8ds9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="268" height="70"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL3VrL3BvZGNhc3RzL3RoZS1hbnRoaWxsLnJzcw%3D%3D"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/the-anthill"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> </p>
<p><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/The-Anthill-p877873/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a> <a href="https://radiopublic.com/the-anthill-GOJ1vz"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115733/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Indrajit Roy receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabel Bligh works for The Conversation.</span></em></p>We focus on Kashmir in the third part of our India Tomorrow podcast series: its history, the lives of its people, and the conflict over its future.Indrajit Roy, Lecturer in Global Development Politics, University of YorkAnnabel Bligh, Host of The Anthill Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1157322019-04-23T15:45:51Z2019-04-23T15:45:51ZKashmir: India Tomorrow part 3 podcast transcript<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270434/original/file-20190423-175524-3k25ny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-mountain-view-sonamarg-jammu-kashmir-657391570?src=iKqyP7mSQFggecLhR1fF8A-1-0">khlongwangchao via Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is a transcript of part three of The Anthill’s podcast series, India Tomorrow. <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-3-kashmir-115733">Listen to the full episode here </a> and also find out more about past and upcoming episodes in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">series episode guide</a>.</em></p>
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<p><strong>Gemma Ware</strong>: So what is Kashmir, what’s it like and what does it mean to you?</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ather-zia-725152">Ather Zia</a></strong>: Kashmir to me means home, which is where I was brought up. It’s my homeland. And it’s also a place which is an open prison currently because of the situation that is prevailing. And the situation is that of an occupation that Indian military has imposed on the region since 1947. And since 1989 what’s happened is that there is direct military violence that is exacerbated each year. People are living, but it’s under heavy repression.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: This is Ather Zia, an assistant professor of anthropology and gender studies at the University of Northern Colorado, Greeley. She spoke to our producer Gemma Ware.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong> When you walk the expanse of Kashmir, there is no road, there is no alley, there is no street where you cannot be stopped.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Since 1990, the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, which Ather calls Indian-administered Kashmir, has been under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. This is a law which was introduced after an insurgency began in 1989. Ather says the act gives the Indian military sweeping powers over property and life. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So anyone is a suspect at any point in time and can be killed, can be disappeared, can be arrested, can be tortured without any accountability and that is what has been happening.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Ather is a founding member of a group of scholars called the Critical Kashmir Studies Collective, which looks at Kashmir from the viewpoint of Kashmiris themselves. She studies daily life there.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So living in Kashmir is very very difficult because it’s not a regular, normal life. When you live under militarisation, you’re under constant surveillance. I might give you a small example that if guests come into your home, you have to declare who is coming and you have to go to the local police station. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Everyone is required to carry an ID card with them, and can be asked to produce it at any moment. There is no privacy, even in your home, Ather says. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: The government forces can barge into your home at any given point in time, say that you are under suspicion, or we suspect something, or there’s actually something happening. So there is no privacy. There is surveillance. And someone is watching you 24/7. And then also the limits and constraints to movement but also to life and to expression.</p>
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<p><em>India Tomorrow intro music</em></p>
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<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: You’re listening to India tomorrow, a series from The Anthill podcast, brought to you by The Conversation. I’m Annabel Bligh from The Conversation.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/indrajit-roy-312163">Indrajit Roy</a></strong>: And I’m Indrajit Roy, lecturer in politics at the University of York.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: In this episode, part 3 of our series on India, we’re going to be focusing on Kashmir. Its history, its people, and the conflict over its future. To follow this episode, you don’t need to have heard the first two parts of our India tomorrow series. But we do hope you’ll check them out – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-fake-news-and-the-battle-for-information-113579">first is on fake news and the battle over information in India</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">second is on the politics of hindu nationalism</a>, which has been central to the BJP government’s platform.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: We weren’t initially planning to do an episode on Kashmir. But as we were putting this series together, Kashmir hit international headlines after a suicide bomb attack there killed 40 Indian security forces, and the Indian military responded by bombing militant targets in Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Yes, we’ll be hearing more about that later. But first, we thought it was important to find out how we got here and where the conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir came from.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Kashmir is a region on the border with India and Pakistan, divided between the two countries, but claimed in full by both. To understand the roots of the Kashmir conflict, we need to go back to the 1940s and the violence, bloodshed and heartache of what’s known as the partition – the sudden and cataclysmic division of Britain’s Indian empire into the two separate independent states of India and Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-ansari-393469">Sarah Ansari</a></strong>: The speed with which independence took place had a lot to do with the changed position of Britain after the Second World War. But partition took place because of the inability of the main parties involved – the British, the Congress and the Muslim League – to reach a compromise solution that would keep India united at independence. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: This is Sarah Ansari, professor of history at Royal Holloway University of London, who researches the history and the legacy of partition. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: The decision to grant independence to British India was finally agreed in February 1947, with the proposed date by which this should have happened being June 1948. However, in June 1947 plans were speeded up considerably and the date for independence was brought forward to August 15 1947. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Decisions had to be made very quickly, Sarah says. Including where the dividing line between the two countries would be. A British judge called Cyril Radcliffe was brought out to India to draw it up, but he only had a few weeks to identify and secure agreement from all sides. And he later admitted he’d relied on out-of-date maps and census materials. The result was that two key provinces, Punjab and Bengal were each split in two. Sarah says that religious concerns were central to partition and what happened after it. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: Large numbers of Indian Muslims felt sufficiently concerned about what the future political arrangements in India would mean for them as a perpetual minority, let’s say, within this new political unit. And it was that concern that the Muslim League was able to tap into and win support from in its negotiations with the British and the Congress over what would happen at independence. However we must be careful that we don’t assume that firstly all Muslims in India before August 1947 supported partition. That was definitely not the case. And it was only very late in the day that the Muslim League was able to win support from majority Muslim provinces for this, I suppose, kind of negotiated outcome.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: So, Indrajit, it wasn’t simply a case of a Muslim-Hindu divide? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: No. As Sarah says, it was definitely not the case that all Muslims in India supported partition. It’s very hard of course to know the exact numbers that supported it. Many Muslims, chose to stay in India and not to migrate at all to Pakistan which is why today they make up such a substantial minority of about 14% of India’s population, according to the 2011 census. What we do know is that partition brought with it a huge amount of uncertainty and violence in a summer of intense confusion and human suffering. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: We don’t know how many people precisely migrated, but maybe as many as 14m people uprooted themselves and crossed what they thought were going to be the new borders in order to reach a place of greater safety. So that’s probably still the largest migration that the world has yet seen. And as part of that, large numbers of people died – maybe as many as a million. I mean the figures are not precise because of the, I suppose, confusion of the of the time itself.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: But what about Jammu and Kashmir? At the time of partition the area was a princely state. Under the plans drawn up by the British, princely states would initially have the right to remain independent, or to join India or Pakistan. It was up to each ruler to decide the future of their territory and its people. Sarah explains. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: In the main, this proved relatively unproblematic, especially where there was a clear, as people describe it, geographic compulsion. Or where the wishes of the ruler and his subjects were straightforwardly aligned in terms of religious identity. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Sarah says that, in the end, those princely states that had perhaps considered remaining independent, found it impossible in practice to do so. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: So the vast majority of princely states acceded to either India or to Pakistan by the agreed deadline. But problems arose where or when the ruler and his subjects disagreed. And so Jammu and Kashmir was one of a small number of princely states where this proved to be the case.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: The ruler at the time, Maharajah Hari Singh, was a Hindu, but the population of Jammu and Kahsmir had an overall Muslim majority. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: The Maharajah initially chose to remain independent, signed what was known as a standstill agreement, at least with Pakistan. It hadn’t managed to do that with India, which kind of paused the process until a decision had been made. But protest uprisings, combined with tribal military-backed incursions from Pakistan, or the Pakistani side of the new border, led him, the Maharajah that is, to request intervention from the authorities in Delhi. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: What happened next is controversial, says Sarah, because there is disagreement over whether the Maharajah signed what was called the instrument of accession to join with India before or after India sent in troops. In any case, Pakistan contested Kashmir’s accession to India and a war ensued. India’s prime minister at the time, Jawaharlal Nehru referred the Kashmir issue to the UN, which got involved to try and find a way through the conflict. A ceasefire was agreed in early 1949, which created the ceasefire line, later known as the “line of control”. That’s the dividing line between Pakistan and India in Kashmir that still exists today. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: The outcome was, in due course, that the western portions of his territory, Jammu Kashmir, came under Pakistani control – so today known as Azad Kashmir and also Gilgit-Baltistan – while the remainder constituted the Jammu and Kashmir state as it later came to be known that remained within the Indian framework.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Sarah says that the fact India and Pakistan found themselves fighting a war over Kashmir so soon after independence had significant long-term consequences for both countries. From the get go, they were on a war footing. </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Ansari</strong>: It meant on the one hand that right from the outset Pakistan spent a huge proportion of its of its revenue, its GDP, on military-related development which I think hindered all sorts of other kind of state building programmes. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The border tensions with Pakistan have also contributed to India’s rationale for keeping such a large army of around 1.4m active service personnel. In 2017, according to the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/india-worlds-biggest-defence-military-spender/">Stockholm International Peace Research Institute</a>, India spent US$63.9 billion on defence, making it the fifth-highest spending military budget in the world, behind the US, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: But what about Kashmiris? This is the question around which Ather Zia has focused her research. For Kashmiris, she says, history is ever present, and dominates the way they think about the future. A central issue, the bone of contention as it were, is India’s promise of a plebiscite, to the people of Jammu and Kashmir – a referendum on their future.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And the fact is that the plebiscite has not been conducted so far and people in every decade, in my field at least, Indian-administered Kashmir, have been seeking that plebiscite one way or the other. But what has happened since 1947 is that the dialogue or the narrative around plebiscite got has gotten really, really diluted.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: India’s offer of a plebiscite was subject to Pakistan withdrawing troops from the western portion of Jammu and Kashmir. The ceasefire terms mandated that both sides withdraw their troops from the state. Neither side agreed, effectively killing the idea of a plebiscite. Elections were held in 1951 to convene a constituent assembly for the state, something like its own local parliament.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And at that time you have evidence and you have the UN telling India that you cannot do this you can’t hold these elections because the case is sub judice. India responds saying that we are doing this for temporary governance and plebiscite is on the table still.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: As a matter of fact, journalists and academics covering that period suggest that those elections were completely rigged in favour of the Congress Party’s ally in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference, that was keen for the state to join India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Contrary to a wider Indian narrative, which argues that Kashmiris only began wanting independence in 1989 when the armed insurgency began, Ather stresses that Kashmiris had actually been resisting for decades – even before partition in 1947. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So we have to understand, while India was fighting for its independence, Kashmir was fighting for its own independence from local tyrannical monarchy. And Kashmiris were fighting what they at that time called “quit Kashmir”. So they were asking the monarch to quit Kashmir and to establish a sovereign democracy. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: But despite this much longer history of resistance, and despite Kashmiris’ desire for a referendum on their future, it has never happened. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: So India kind of has sidelined and it has pushed the idea of plebiscite and referendum on the backburner, saying you know we have been doing elections since 1951. So the plebiscite is gone now. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Ather is about to publish an edited volume of research on how Kashmiris in every decade since partition have kept on talking about the promise of a referendum. Today, that desire for independence has not abated, she says. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And what other colleagues of mine who work in the same area have found, and what also some surveys and different researchers who have worked for some media groups have found, is that more than 70% of the people of the region support independence and there is a section which supports a merger with Pakistan. And of course there are people who are collaborating with India currently and who are running the pro-India politics and who are also pushing for integration with India to the resistance of the masses. So what we find is that there is a lot of sentiment for independence or what Kashmiris call Azadi which is the Urdu and Kashmiri word for freedom. And freedom for Kashmiris means freedom from India on this side of the line of control, where I work, the Indian administered Kashmir. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Ather says history is very present in the everyday lives of Kashmiris. Even the children. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: If you ask any child across the world like, “What do you want?” They might want toys. But one of the major slogans in Kashmir is Hum Kya Chahte, which means, “What do you want?” And people say, “Azadi.” So that’s kind of a rhetorical thing. And even the little kids say like, “What do we want? We want Azadi.” So it’s become a cultural motif. The resistance in Kashmir is very, very cultural. It’s woven into the daily life.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: The tragedy is that no one really pays attention to the historic political struggle of Kashmiris and everything goes to this post-colonial idiom where you look at big countries and you think about their territorial dispute not thinking about whose territory are we talking about. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: In <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-2-the-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-115494">our last episode</a> we heard about the ideology of Hindutva, and how central the idea of a Hindu nation is to the BJP, the party of Narendra Modi and the family of organisations of which it is a part. Such Hindu nationalist ideology impacts the BJP’s position regarding Kashmir – and Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sita-bali-155071">Sita Bali</a></strong>: The BJP has its roots in a rightwing movement called the Jahn Sang which was present during just after partition and it also traces its roots back to some of the more right wing and the more stridently Hindu voices at the time of partition, like the Hindu Mahasabha.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: This is Sita Bali, a lecturer in international relations at Staffordshire University. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: So for the BJP and for that whole group of organisations, in a sense, partition is a kind of incomplete process because while most of the Muslims of India have not left to go live in Pakistan, most of the Hindus of Pakistan have come to live in India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: A particular issue is around what’s called Article 370, part of the Indian constitution which gives a special status to Kashmir. Indrajit, why is it so controversial to some Indians?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: That’s a tricky one actually. Article 370 of the Indian Constitution allows the state of Jammu and Kashmir a greater degree of autonomy compared to other Indian states. The article says that the Indian government has control over defence, external affairs, currency and communication, but on all other matters the state of Jammu and Kashmir can take its own decisions. Indian laws can only be applied to the state with the agreement of the state’s legislative assembly. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: For example, the Indian government cannot alter the boundaries of the state or make new provinces, as it can with other Indian states. Of course, in all this, we shouldn’t forget that people are constantly moving about. There’s a steady circulation of “ordinary” people, if you will, between Kashmir and the rest of India. Kashmiri students study in various Indian cities. Labour migrants work in Kashmir. As it happens, my own research on labour migration in India suggests that labourers from Bihar state in eastern India have never felt particularly discriminated against when they go to work in Jammu and Kashmir.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: So in terms of this, Article 370, gives Kashmir special status, do some people and politicians in India want to get rid of it altogether?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Kind of. Now, to be honest, the Indian government has been quietly eroding the special status provided under Article 370 for a long time, not just under the BJP but also under the Congress. But the BJP would like to see the article completely scrapped as it considers it to be a barrier to the complete integration of Jammu and Kashmir into India. And as you can imagine, political parties in the state are vehemently opposed to it. They say, and from a legal point of view they may have a point, that Article 370 is the link between India and Jammu and Kashmir. If you get rid of Article 370, then the legal basis of Jammu and Kashmir joining India is scrapped. That’s one reason most political parties in India tend to keep quiet about Article 370. Even one of the BJP’s own allies recently warned against removing the special status for the state. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: OK, so that’s the legal position. But what about feelings of security? How serious a security threat is Kashmir to India? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Look, Kashmir is not the only insurgency that the Indian government confronts. You know, there have been insurgencies in the north east, in central and eastern India where the Maoists have been operating for decades. But the situation in Kashmir presents a special threat because of the ways it has been linked to Islamic terrorism.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: And why’s that? Where’s this link to Islamic terrorism come from? </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Here we have to zoom out of Kashmir a bit and look at the region more broadly since the 1980s. Now you remember the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? And remember that Islamic freedom fighters were drafted by the United States to wage a jihad against the Soviets. Pakistan of course gladly hosted these guys because it meant aid and weapons. The Soviet defeat emboldened the jihadists, and Pakistan happily directed them towards its old friend India. The infiltration of the jihadi element was new and unprecedented. The Kashmiri struggle against Indian high-handedness had so far been peaceful. But it took a violent turn in 1988, after armed groups began to exploit local resentment – and make no mistake, there was enough grounds for local resentment – against what now came to be called Indian occupation. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Ok. So actually the last time the BJP was in power in India, under the prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, there was a considerable escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan. Sita Bali told us that when Vajpayee initially came to power, there had been some hope he may have been able to make peace. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: And there was a time when people really believed – both in India and Pakistan – that because the BJP were the more extreme element in India, in terms of their hard line on Pakistan and on Kashmir, that actually if peace was to be made between India and Pakistan on this matter that it was more likely to come from the BJP because they were the more extreme. I mean, if the Congress made some sort of peace, the BJP would come in and say it wasn’t good enough for them. Whereas a peace made by the more extreme right will likely satisfy everybody. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: When a bus service was opened between India and Pakistan, Vajpayee was on the first service. There was a lot of optimism. But Sita says all that soon dissipated after it emerged that Pakistan had been preparing for what’s been called the Kargil invasion, a border dispute high up in the mountains in an area called the Siachin Glacier. The Kargil conflict was made all the more dangerous because both countries had tested nuclear weapons in 1998, the year before. For India, it was a hard fight to win. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: This was in a sense India’s first TV war. And so you saw people being killed up there of course and then you saw the body bags come down and be put into boxes and boxes covered with the Indian flag then being dispatched to all corners of India. You know all over the place. And so there is a real kind of build up of nationalism in India.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The Kargil conflict started in May and ended in June 1999 when India’s military forced a withdrawal of Pakistani militants back across the line of control. But it left an uneasy sense of peace, and since then there have been continuous skirmishes across the line of control. </p>
<p>So let’s fast forward to 2014, and the election of Narendra Modi as prime minister of India. Sita says that Modi came to power saying he’d be much stronger on the Kashmir issue.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: So of course removing Article 370 was a key BJP manifesto promise because of, you know, the idea in the BJP that this article was a barrier to the state’s integration into India. But Modi also promised that he would defend the interests of Kashmiri Pandits, the valley’s Hindu minority that had been forced to flee to other parts of the country when militancy took over the state in 1989. Modi said that at the very least he would ensure the rehabilitation of the Pandits within the state. The BJP was of course exploiting the emotive issue of Kashmiri Pandits for its own electoral advantage because five years down the line, it has not had much to show for itself.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: After Modi was elected, he went to Kashmir, to see how people there would react to him. Kashmir went into shutdown. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: Because what he was suggesting essentially was that any problems in Kashmir were largely to do with Pakistan, that Kashmir was an integral part of India. There was no recognition for the fact that Kashmir has a special status in the Indian constitution; that it was India’s Muslim majority region. There was no other in India like this and that therefore the special status meant something to the, particularly, the Muslims of Kashmir.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: To be fair, Modi did seem to strike a chord with the electorate in Kashmir. The BJP made some noise about reviewing the act which gives the Indian military sweeping powers over people’s lives that Ather spoke of earlier. Elections to the state assembly were held in December 2014, soon after the BJP stormed to power in Delhi. Turnout was a record 65%, among the highest in India and certainly the highest in the state since militancy erupted in 1989. </p>
<p>As it happened, the BJP did rather well in these elections, especially in the Jammu region, which has a Hindu majority. Another state party called the People’s Democratic Party, or PDP, won the majority of seats in the Kashmir valley, which has a Muslim majority. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: And so then what happened?</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: The negotiations that followed were fun to watch. On the one side, you had the PDP, you see, which was committed to keeping Article 370; party leaders had sometimes been called “soft separatists”. On the other hand, you had the BJP, which you know, has always been in favour of scrapping Article 370. So, thanks to some skilful negotiations, and you know out-of-the-box thinking, you had these two parties with opposing ideologies tied together in a coalition. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: So people were quite optimistic, because you know with the BJP that if they’re in power at the centre and they’re in power at the state assembly level then you’ve got a better chance of getting things through from the state assembly to the centre and back. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: But Sita says it turned out the BJP didn’t really have a plan for Kashmir. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: The BJP’s plan was non-existent in that they decided that they would treat Kashmir purely as a law and order problem – as a security problem.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: In July 2016, mass demonstrations erupted in the Kashmir valley after the leader of an armed group was killed by Indian security forces. The protesters were met with force. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Today, Ather Zia says that daily human rights violations in Kashmir are at an all time high. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: In June 2018, the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/IN/DevelopmentsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf">published a report</a> on Indian-administered Kashmir as well as Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgut and Balistan talking about the human rights violations in the region. What the report established was that since 2016 the human rights record of the Indian Army has really touched an all time low.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The UN report was the first ever on human rights violations in Kashmir. It was carried out remotely as investigators weren’t given full access by either India or Pakistan. The authors cited civil society reports that 145 civilians were killed by security forces in Jammu and Kashmir between mid-July 2016 and the end of March 2018. Ather says that while cases of Kashmiris “disappearing” may have lessened in recent years, other human rights violations have increased. In particular, she points to large numbers of people being blinded by government forces.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: Basically the world’s first mass blindness happened in Kashmir because the government forces are using shotgun pellets, which is also erroneously called pellet guns and it kind of makes the Western audience think that it’s very small something like a BB gun of some sort, but this is actually a shotgun and it fires pellets very fast.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: The UN cited official figures reporting that 17 people were killed by these shotgun pellets between July 2016 and August 2017. And more than 6,000 people were injured by the pellets between 2016 and March 2017. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: In late 2017, the BJP coalition with Kashmir’s PDP collapsed, and the state was governed directly from Delhi. Ather says the BJP is now openly attacking those parts of the Indian constitution that protected Kashmir’s autonomy and special status. For instance, there’s currently a case before the Indian Supreme Court aimed at getting rid of Article 35a.</p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: That’s an article that kind of ensures Kashmir’s territorial autonomy which means that people who are not Kashmiri residents do not have the right to franchise, and they don’t have right to property inside Kashmir. So it looks like a very discriminatory act and it has also been portrayed as a gender discrimination act. But the fact is that this is a protection of a territorial sovereignty of a region to which you have a certain access. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Ather says Kashmiris are still anxiously waiting for news from the supreme court. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: And they are really really worried that it might be taken away from them. And there are political analysts inside Kashmir who have called this demographic terrorism. That if this is taken away and there is an influx of Indian businesses and Indian, you know, just citizens inside Kashmir and taking the property and you know all sorts of demographic changes it is going to change the situation inside Kashmir. And it is going to kind of tip the scales in favour of India. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: In early 2019, the situation in Kashmir suddenly made news around the world again. A suicide bomb attack in mid-February killed 40 Indian paramilitaries travelling in a convoy in Jammu and Kashmir at a place called Pulwama. A Pakistan-based military group, Jaish-e-Mohammed, claimed responsibility. A few days later, Indian planes launched strikes on what it said were Pakistani militant bases on the Pakistani side of the border in Balakot. An Indian pilot whose plane was shot down, was returned by the Pakistanis a few days later. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: Not only did it de-escalate the situation but it also, I think handed a bit of a publicity coup or made Pakistan look very much the more magnanimous, the more peace seeking, whereas it made India look like India was more gung-ho and warlike. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: We asked Sita Bali what this escalation – and subsequent de-escalation – of the conflict with Pakistan means for Modi politically, in the run up to the elections. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: I think that, there being a tense situation with Pakistan where Modi can stand up to them and can look tough and look hard and so on, is very helpful to his election prospects, because it plays into that sense that the BJP and Modi are the tough guys, the Congress is kind of weak and wimpy. And you know they’ve been in power for so many years and they’ve never sorted it out. So I think it’s going to help Modi if the situation in Kashmir is not peaceful or is not settled for the moment. And it isn’t.</p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: It’s worth remembering also that the nuclear issue is always there in the backdrop of the tension between India and Pakistan. Both countries have nuclear weapons, but while India has declared that it won’t use them in the first instance, Pakistan hasn’t. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: Well, logically it should actually rule out things like an Indian armed response to an act of terrorism within Kashmir. Because on one argument you could say that because Pakistan has not committed itself to no first use, it has increased its ability to do things that might annoy India, and to have some cover, because India will think very hard before responding militarily simply because Pakistan can escalate the problem at any time that it wants, without breaking any commitment that it has made in the past. So arguably this works to Pakistan’s advantage. </p>
<p>However, I also think that in the end if it came to it, a commitment that India has given to the international community, if we ever came to a point where India genuinely believed that it was in their interest to use that nuclear weapon first, never mind that it meant breaking a commitment, I think that they would probably do it, particularly under a BJP government. </p>
<p>So I think at the moment in a way what we’ve got is a situation where both sides’ nuclear weapons are cancelling each other out and we are going ahead with a conflict, or behaving in a conflict, very much like the nuclear weapons don’t exist. Except that both countries are quite careful not to escalate too much.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Sita says that while both sides are constrained by their nuclear capabilities, India is more constrained because it sees itself as a more responsible player on the international stage. But there is a wider regional dynamic at play too.</p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: This Pakistan problem, or the Kashmir problem, whichever way you choose to look at it, has always stood in the way of India’s relations in the whole region. Because in the whole region you have to think of, first, all the countries of South Asia. And India is surrounded by these countries. It has a common border with so many of the countries of south Asia, none of whom have a common border with each other, and all of whom are far far smaller than India. So India is already susceptible to the perception that because she is the biggest, which she is by a long shot, that she is a bully in the region. And that Pakistan, in the regional balance of power, Pakistan refusing to accept Indian hegemony is one of the things that, quietly, all of the other countries of South Asia would support. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: And then there is China. </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: China is an established, longstanding and close ally of Pakistan. And they have supported Pakistan. Even right now, for example, over the issue of declaring the Jaish-e-Mohammed a terrorist group and banning them and freezing their assets and all the usual things that happen in the UN when somebody is declared a terrorist group, China is resisting. And it’s taking Pakistan’s side in this argument.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Our producer Gemma Ware put one last question to Sita, about how concerned she is now, after the Pulwama attack and Indian air strikes. </p>
<p><strong>Gemma Ware</strong>: So in terms of where we are now, are you worried? Is this a very concerning moment for you? You’ve been studying this region for a long time. Is this just part of the ebb and flow of, unfortunately what the Kashmir and the India-Pakistan conflict are? Or is this a particularly worrying moment for you? </p>
<p><strong>Sita Bali</strong>: No, I think Kargil was more serious than this. Because it was the first time we had been skirmishing after the establishing of nuclear weapons on both sides. What is worrying about this is not so much to do with Pakistan and nuclear weapons and so on, what is worrying about this at the moment is the future of Indian Kashmir. Because ultimately if the people of Indian Kashmir decide that they do not want to be a part of India then all bets are off in terms of what Pakistan will do as well. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: For Ather, the international attention on Kashmir once again takes the focus away from the suffering of the Kashmiris. Her collective of Kashmiri scholars have been trying to fight the notion that the Kashmir conflict is merely a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: That is an aspect. But it is also an issue of democratic sovereignty of a certain people and political consciousness, which has not only strengthened, but it has evolved and emerged in different ways over the last 70 years. </p>
<p>I kind of like to see it as that the Kashmiris are doing all the dying. This has been noted by many people before. And all we are talking about is India and Pakistan. So we have to see the human cost. Who is paying the human cost when the strikes were happening from India and Pakistan? And all of that is going on very recently. We kind of forgot in the middle that it was a Kashmiri who became the human bomb. And the question was not asked like, what happened there? Why is Kashmir becoming a lab for making militants? Because there are no policies for a just peace.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: It’s their future, says Ather. </p>
<p><strong>Ather Zia</strong>: Kashmiris are the most canny and most political of peoples. And if you go to any street corner you will see the most evolved narrative and political narrative on Kashmir from everyone. Because that’s what they live every day. And after what happened very recently there was some interest in, “hey, let’s think about what’s happening to Kashmiris”. But then after a while everything went back to thinking about how can we bring the two countries to the table. And the Kashmiris again got snowed under that narrative because it’s a post-colonial reality that we are thinking about big nation states and we’re not thinking about peoples, we’re not thinking about cultures. So that’s something that we need to keep in mind. We need to have the Kashmiri vantage. Without that everything is incomplete.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: That’s it for this episode of India Tomorrow from The Anthill. In our next episode, we’ll be looking at the changing role of women in Indian society. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/charu-gupta-725231">Charu Gupta</a></strong>: Love Jihad was actually a jihad against love. It was a war against love you know it was this kind of mythical and violent campaign. It was emotive. It was a political fantasy.</p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: That’s in part 4 of this series from The Anthill, India Tomorrow. Do subscribe to The Anthill podcast so you don’t miss out. You can also sign up to our Anthill newsletter, by clicking the link in the show notes. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: You can read more of The Conversation’s coverage of India by academics around the world on <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk">theconversation.com</a> or follow us on social media. If you’ve got any questions about issues we’ve been discussing in this series, please do get in touch via email on podcast@theconversation.com or on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/anthillpod">@anthillpod</a>. We’ll be putting your questions to a panel of academics we’re lining up to discuss the election results at the end of May. And you can find a transcript of this episode, and other episodes in this series, on <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk">theconversation.com</a>. </p>
<p>A big thanks to all the academics who spoke to us for this episode and to the journalism department at City University for letting us use their studios. The Anthill is produced by Gemma Ware and me, Annabel Bligh. Sound by Alex Portfelix.
Lastly, an extra big thanks to my co-host, Indrajit Roy. </p>
<p><strong>Indrajit Roy</strong>: Thanks Annabel. See you next week. </p>
<p><strong>Annabel Bligh</strong>: Thanks for listening. Goodbye.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
This is a transcript of episode three of The Anthill podcast series India Tomorrow on Kashmir.Annabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UKGemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1128242019-03-04T20:41:43Z2019-03-04T20:41:43ZKashmir conflict is not just a border dispute between India and Pakistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261726/original/file-20190301-110150-tu6era.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indian soldiers arrive at the wreckage of an an Indian helicopter that crashed on the Indian side of Kashmir on Feb. 27, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/The-Week-That-Was-In-Asia-Photo-Gallery/cf3b18ffec9149f881f9ab25289b1812/28/0">AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tensions between India and Pakistan have diminished in recent days after <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/india-pakistan-tensions-latest-updates-190227063414443.html">repeated military clashes in Kashmir</a> led to fear that the two nuclear powers could be on the verge of war. </p>
<p>Kashmir is a disputed territory divided between India and Pakistan but claimed in its entirety by both sides.</p>
<p>The latest Kashmir standoff was triggered by a Feb. 14 suicide bombing by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47249982">Jaish-e-Muhammad</a>, a militant group with <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/profile-jaish-muhammad-190215061851082.html">links to al-Qaida</a> and founded by the Pakistan-based cleric Masood Azhar. More than 40 Indian soldiers died. </p>
<p>India blamed Pakistan for providing moral and material support to the terrorist organization, which is banned in Pakistan but <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/world/pakistan-didn-t-detain-masood-azhar-after-pathankot-attack-report/story-QlXZi7xMlPtaPNF1ZVg1NJ.html">operates openly there</a>. On Feb. 26, India launched <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-says-indian-jets-dropped-bombs-but-caused-no-damage-11551158468">air strikes</a> against Jaish-e-Muhammad’s training camps on the Pakistani side of Kashmir. </p>
<p>Pakistan retaliated, claiming to have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/27/india/india-pakistan-strikes-escalation-intl/index.html">shot down two Indian fighter jets</a> on Feb. 28. Indian sources said that just one Pakistani jet and one Indian jet had been downed, and an Indian pilot taken hostage by Pakistan.</p>
<p>Pakistan has since <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/28/world/asia/pakistan-india-pilot-kashmir.html">released the pilot</a>, soothing tempers – for now, at least. </p>
<h2>Why Kashmir?</h2>
<p>The Kashmir issue has caused tension and conflict in the Indian subcontinent since 1947, when independence from Britain <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/08/asia/india-pakistan-independence-timeline/index.html">created India and Pakistan</a> as two sovereign states.</p>
<p>Jammu and Kashmir – the full name of the princely Himalayan state, then ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh – <a href="https://theconversation.com/kashmir-india-and-pakistans-escalating-conflict-will-benefit-narendra-modi-ahead-of-elections-112570">acceded to India</a> in 1947, seeking military support after <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1947%E2%80%931948">tribal raids</a> from Pakistan into the state’s territory. </p>
<p>The two countries have fought <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/south-asian-history/kashmir-history-politics-representation?format=PB#K7iOgJparKKAsCkw.97">three wars</a> over the region since.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=686&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=686&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=686&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261917/original/file-20190304-92277-1fhmsei.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The internal divisions of Kashmir.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0e/Kashmir_map.jpg">Central Intelligence Agency</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first, which began in 1947, ended with the partition of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan under a <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/mission/past/unipombackgr.html">1949 United Nations-brokered ceasefire</a>. Wars in 1965 and <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/india/2009/07/26/how-should-we-celebrate-the-kargil-war/">1999</a> ended in stalemate. </p>
<p>But Kashmir is not simply a bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan. </p>
<p>As illustrated in my recent <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/south-asian-history/kashmir-history-politics-representation?format=PB#K7iOgJparKKAsCkw.97">edited volume on the history of this contested territory</a>, Kashmir is a multi-ethnic region with several internal subregions, whose inhabitants have distinct political goals.</p>
<p>Pakistani Kashmir consists of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, jurisdictions that want to become formal provinces of Pakistan to gain more political autonomy over their internal affairs. </p>
<p>Indian Kashmir includes Jammu, Ladakh and the Kashmir Valley. While the first two regions desire to remain part of India, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kashmir-poll/majority-in-kashmir-valley-want-independence-poll-idUSDEL29179620070813">Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley</a> wants independence from it.</p>
<h2>A many-sided conflict</h2>
<p>The desire for autonomy in different areas of Kashmir has led to repeated uprisings and independence movements. </p>
<p>The most prominent is a violent <a href="http://www.currenthistory.com/Article.php?ID=1400">insurgency against Indian rule in the Kashmir Valley</a> that began in 1989 and has continued, in ebbs and flows, over the past three decades. Thousands have been killed.</p>
<p>The Kashmir Valley has become a militarized zone, effectively occupied by Indian security forces. According to the United Nations, Indian soldiers have committed numerous <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/06/14/india-act-un-rights-report-kashmir">human rights violations there</a>, including firing on protesters and denying due process to people arrested. </p>
<p>The UN also cites Pakistan’s <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/IN/DevelopmentsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf">role in the violence in Kashmir</a>. Its government supports the movement for Kashmir’s independence from India by providing <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520274211/body-of-victim-body-of-warrior">moral and material support to Kashmiri militants</a> – allegations the Pakistani government <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/why-pakistan-has-not-been-able-to-rein-in-anti-india-militants/2019/03/01/7c3549a8-3ae1-11e9-b10b-f05a22e75865_story.html?utm_term=.ba60b89a081a">refutes</a>. Pakistan also <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/30/india-and-pakistan-arent-ready-for-another-terrorist-crisis/">tacitly supports</a> the operations in Kashmir of non-Kashmiri extremist groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad. </p>
<p>As a result, consecutive Indian governments have managed to write off unrest in the Kashmir Valley as a byproduct of its territorial dispute with Pakistan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261972/original/file-20190304-92298-thcsd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India’s Kashmir Valley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Kashmir.Valley.original.11730.jpg">Ishan Singal</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In doing so, India has avoided addressing the actual political grievances of Indian Kashmiris.</p>
<p>An entire generation of young Kashmiris have been raised during the 30-year insurgency. They are deeply alienated from India, research shows, and <a href="http://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15810.html">view it as an occupying power</a>.</p>
<p>Militant groups in the region tap into this discontent, recruiting young people to use violence in their quest for Kashmir’s freedom. Indeed, the man who under the auspices of Jaish-e-Muhmamad blew himself up in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/14/indian-paramilitaries-killed-in-suicide-car-bombing-in-kashmir">Feb. 14 suicide bombing</a> of the Indian military convoy was a young Kashmiri.</p>
<h2>Ending the conflict</h2>
<p>Tensions in Kashmir may have subsided, but the root causes of the violence there have not.</p>
<p>In my assessment, the Kashmir dispute cannot be resolved bilaterally by India and Pakistan alone – even if the two countries were willing to work together to resolve their differences. </p>
<p>This is because the conflict has many sides: India, Pakistan, the five regions of Kashmir and numerous political organizations.</p>
<p>Establishing peace in the region would require both India and Pakistan to reconcile the multiple – and sometimes conflicting – aspirations of the diverse peoples of this region. </p>
<p>Only when local aspirations are recognized, addressed and debated alongside India and Pakistan’s nationalist and strategic goals will a durable solution emerge to one of the world’s longest-running conflicts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chitralekha Zutshi has received funding from the American Institute of Indian Studies and the National Endowment for the Humanities. </span></em></p>India and Pakistan have been fighting for control over Kashmir, an 86,000-square-mile territory in the Himalayas, for seven decades. But the people of Kashmir have their own political goals too.Chitralekha Zutshi, Professor of History, William & MaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/852022017-10-25T14:28:12Z2017-10-25T14:28:12ZWhy Kashmir is still ensnared in conflict after 70 years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189523/original/file-20171010-17673-mayqq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Orakzai tribesmen on their way to fight in Kashmir, 1947.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Frank Leeson (with permission)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s 70 years since the first shots were fired in the still unresolved conflict over the status of Kashmir. The dispute is a legacy of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-partition-of-india-happened-and-why-its-effects-are-still-felt-today-81766">the partition that accompanied Britain’s withdrawal from India</a> in 1947. Both India and Pakistan claim the region, and both are now equipped with nuclear arsenals. Since 1947, they have fought four wars – the most recent being the Kargil conflict in 1999 – of which three have been fought principally in or about Kashmir. </p>
<p>Under the terms by which Britain brought an end to the Raj, it was up to princely rulers to decide whether to accede to India or Pakistan. Kashmir (or Jammu and Kashmir, to give its full title) was one of the few princely states adjoining both new dominions where there was a real decision to be made.</p>
<p>The state is <a href="https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-correct-map-of-Jammu-Kashmir-of-India">in the far north of India</a>, stretching into the foothills of the Himalayas. In 1947, its maharajah was a Hindu but more than three-quarters of his subjects were Muslims. He delayed signing up to either India or Pakistan, hoping that he might be able to achieve independence. But in October 1947, the princely state was invaded by fighters from the tribal areas in north-west Pakistan. They wanted to overthrow the maharajah and claim Kashmir for Pakistan, and were motivated by both jihad and the prospect of loot. They <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=vLwOck15eboC&lpg=PA80&ots=5wQV5gT36A&dq=pakistan%20support%20militia%20kashmir%201947&pg=PA80#v=onepage&q&f=false">received support</a>, including transport and weapons, from sections of Pakistan’s armed forces.</p>
<p>The maharajah appealed for Indian support in repulsing the tribesmen and fled from Srinagar to his heartland of Jammu. He also signed the <a href="https://thewire.in/76079/public-first-time-jammu-kashmirs-instrument-accession-india/">instrument of accession</a> by which his state became part of India. The official Indian account says this document was signed the day before troops landed in Kashmir; much of the evidence suggests it was signed a few hours after the airlift started.</p>
<p>The first Indian troops flew into the Kashmir Valley shortly after dawn on October 27 1947. The airfield at Srinagar, the Kashmiri capital, could only take small planes. At most, 300 Indian troops a day could land there, transported in planes requisitioned from commercial airlines. India’s military deployment had the backing of the maharajah’s principal opponent, a charismatic, left-leaning Kashmiri nationalist named <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0738jwb">Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah</a>, who became Kashmir’s dominant political figure. </p>
<p>Indian troops succeeded in repulsing the invaders from the Kashmir Valley, but not from all of the princely state, and the conflict escalated into the first war between India and Pakistan. The United Nations helped to delineate a ceasefire line, in effect a partition of Kashmir, and sent <a href="http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/unmogip/">military observers</a>. They are still there, and the plebiscite mandated in UN resolutions to give Kashmiris a choice between India and Pakistan has never been held.</p>
<p>Along with fighting occasional wars, Pakistani leaders have admitted <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/pakistan-trained-terror-groups-to-fight-in-kashmir-says-pervez-musharraf/">arming and training</a> groups to fight against Indian rule in Kashmir. The <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/Kashmir-insurgency-20-years-after/article16855296.ece">insurgency that erupted in 1989</a> was triggered by local factors, but Pakistan’s backing made it more formidable. Although India largely defeated the armed separatists by the late 1990s, a low-level insurgency continues to this day. A <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-anatomy-of-kashmir-militancy-in-numbers/story-UncrzPTGhN22Uf1HHe64JJ.html">recent report based on Indian official data</a> suggested that 41,000 lives have been lost; Kashmiri separatists often cite a higher figure.</p>
<h2>Step forward, step back</h2>
<p>When General Pervez Musharraf was in power in Pakistan from 2001 to 2008, progress was made towards a deal over Kashmir. The Pakistani leader greatly reduced support for insurgent groups and proposed that the ceasefire line (or line of control) <a href="http://kashmirreader.com/2017/03/05/musharrafs-four-point-formula-devil-details/">should become a permeable border</a>, along with steps towards greater autonomy and the withdrawal of troops. India was receptive, but the moment was lost when Musharraf <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93697460">resigned from office</a> in 2008.</p>
<p>While the Kashmir conflict is often seen as a dispute between India and Pakistan, there is another dimension to it: while Hindu-majority Jammu is more comfortable with Indian rule, the Indian authorities and the people of the Kashmir Valley are still at a stand-off. Although there’s an elected state government, separatists don’t contest the elections, while India’s repeated interventions mean that many Kashmiris feel they have little say in how they are governed.</p>
<p>The large military presence in the Kashmir Valley, along with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/12/indian-forces-kashmir-accused-human-rights-abuses-coverup">alleged human rights abuses</a>, has stirred disaffection. In 2010, thousands of young Kashmiris took to the streets to protest against Indian rule. They threw stones while the security forces responded with pellet guns and bullets. About 120 Kashmiris were killed over that summer, which contributed to the radicalising of a new generation. Last year, protests prompted by the killing of a young and popular armed separatist led to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-37062742">another upsurge of violence</a>.</p>
<p>In recent months, some prominent Indian public figures have warned of the scale of the disaffection. Palaniappan Chidambaram, a former home minister, <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/kashmir-is-sliding-into-disaster-4614675/">went so far as to say</a>: “The alienation of the people of the Kashmir Valley is almost complete. We are on the brink of losing Kashmir.” Wajahat Habibullah, once a senior official in Kashmir, <a href="https://scroll.in/article/846442/wajahat-habibullah-my-lifes-mission-to-win-over-kashmiris-for-india-is-irretrievably-lost">lamented</a> that “my life’s mission to win over the people of Kashmir for India is lost, irretrievably”. He described young Kashmiris as “educated, talented and consumed with hatred of the Indian state”. </p>
<p>The Indian government promises attention to Kashmiri concerns, but there’s no sign of genuine political initiative. Delhi seems to have decided it can simply contain the insurgency and ride out any political turbulence. The Kashmir issue does not sway many votes in Indian elections, and the level of international concern is low – meaning there’s no great pressure on India to resolve a problem which has festered ever since independence seven decades ago.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Whitehead does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Claimed by both India and Pakistan ever since the British left, Kashmir is still caught in the crossfire.Andrew Whitehead, Honorary Professor in Politics, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/663632016-10-03T06:18:16Z2016-10-03T06:18:16ZWhat escalating Kashmir attacks tell us about Modi’s changing foreign policy<p>Simmering tensions between India and Pakistan in the disputed state of Kashmir appear to have flared up again with an <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37536349">attack by militants on an Indian camp</a> coming three days after India announced it had undertaken “<a href="http://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/27446/Transcript_of_Joint_Briefing_by_MEA_and_MoD_September_29_2016">surgical strikes</a>” against militants in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. </p>
<p>Since the 2014 election of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-the-origins-of-todays-hindu-nationalism-55092">Hindu nationalist</a> government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), there have been <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/indiapakistan-diplomacy-a-pirouette-on-pakistan/article9136821.ece">several militant assaults</a> against Indian military targets in the state. </p>
<p>The deadliest attack in two decades took place on September 18, and reports at the time said <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37399969">at least 17 Indian soldiers</a> and all four attackers had been killed. India alleged the attack had been carried out by the Pakistan-based group <a href="https://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/jem.html">Jaish-e-Mohammad</a> (JEM). </p>
<p>The BJP’s <a href="http://www.bjp.org/manifesto2014">election manifesto</a> pledged “zero tolerance” for terrorism. And the party’s leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had condemned the 2004-2014 Congress Party-led government’s policy of “strategic restraint” toward militant attacks by Pakistan-backed groups.</p>
<p>Despite this, the government stuck to the Congress formula of responding with diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to clamp down on groups such as JEM. But this changed last week, when the Indian strikes signalled a change in approach from strategic restraint to limited, pre-emptive self-defence. </p>
<h2>The ongoing dispute</h2>
<p>The Kashmir conflict is the legacy of the subcontinent’s decolonisation and the partition of British India into a state for Muslims (East and West Pakistan), and the secular state of India in 1947. At the time, some 535 “princely states” that had treaties with the British Crown became independent and could choose to join either India or Pakistan. </p>
<p>Kashmir’s Hindu ruler signed <a href="http://www.jammu-kashmir.com/documents/instrument_of_accession.html">a treaty of accession</a> with India, but since the state has a Muslim majority, Pakistan has long claimed it as an essential part of the Pakistani nation.</p>
<p>India and Pakistan have fought several wars over Kashmir, including one in 1999 after both countries had become nuclear powers. The current de facto border dividing Kashmir into Pakistani and Indian-controlled regions – commonly known as the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/south_asia/03/kashmir_future/html/default.stm">Line of Control</a> – was established in 1972. It’s based on the ceasefire line resulting from Indian intervention in the war that led to the creation of Bangladesh in what had been East Pakistan. </p>
<p>But infiltration by Pakistan-based Islamist militant groups across the Line of Control <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/687021.stm">became common</a> in the 1990s as a separatist insurgency erupted in the Indian-controlled Kashmir. The uprising was fuelled by the Indian government’s unwillingness to uphold <a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198074083.001.0001/acprof-9780198074083">Article 370 of the Indian Constitution</a>, which guarantees autonomy for the state. </p>
<p>The current spate of militant attacks appears to take advantage of a new wave of unrest <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36762043">following the killing of Kashmiri militant leader</a>, Burhan Wani, by Indian security forces on July 8. <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37399969">More than 80 people</a>, mostly anti-government protesters, had been killed in the two months before the September 18 attack.</p>
<h2>Disrupted road to peace</h2>
<p>India and Pakistan came close to a negotiated solution to the Kashmir dispute during “<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/03/02/the-back-channel">back channel</a>” talks that lasted from 2005 to 2008. </p>
<p>These talks, which focused on building economic and people-to-people links, along with India’s strategic restraint policy, were the result of then-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s economics-focused foreign policy. <a href="http://archivepmo.nic.in/drmanmohansingh/speech-details.php?nodeid=102">Singh</a> believed that, in a globalised world, borders were less relevant and that a stable neighbourhood was necessary for India’s rise as an economic power.</p>
<p>But negotiations were suspended after the 2008 Mumbai attacks by the Pakistan-based group <a href="http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/790">Lashkar-e-Taiba</a>. The four-day <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-14662732">assault by ten members of the group</a> left 174 people dead and 308 wounded.</p>
<p>The Congress government responded to the Mumbai attacks with strategic restraint, focusing on diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to end its support of militant groups rather than using military force. Though <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/back-in-the-day-crossloc-hit-and-run-was-a-given/article9174532.ece?homepage=true">cross-border raids</a> by both the Indian and Pakistani armies continued after 2008, they went unacknowledged by the army. </p>
<h2>Balancing economics and militarism</h2>
<p>The Modi government has also placed economics at the centre of foreign policy. But important differences between the two governments reflect their disparate political ideologies and constituencies.</p>
<p>The Congress government was elected on a platform of “inclusive growth” that sought to address growing inequality. Its core voter base included the poor and minority groups. And its <a href="http://www.prembhatiatrust.com/lecture16.htm">foreign policy statements</a> often stressed its role in economic transformation and poverty alleviation within a <a href="http://www.rediff.com/news/report/upa-brought-fundamental-reset-in-foreign-policy-pm/20131104.htm">framework</a> of secularism and pluralism.</p>
<p>Modi’s key political constituency in the state of Gujarat, where he was chief minister before becoming a national leader, was what he calls the “neo-middle classes”. These are <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/modi-of-the-middle-class/">newly urbanised, religious, and aspirational Indians</a>, whom <a href="http://www.narendramodi.in/our-sankalp-for-a-bhavya-and-divya-gujarat-3084">Modi</a> views as the future of India’s entrepreneurship-driven economic growth. </p>
<p>In the BJP’s 2014 election manifesto, this group was highlighted as a key group requiring special attention at a national level. The emphasis on India as an “aspiring leading power” that began to appear in <a href="http://thewire.in/6903/india-wants-to-be-a-leading-power-rather-than-just-a-balancing-power/">foreign policy statements</a> from 2015 reflects both Modi’s nationalism and his desire to appeal to this neo-middle class constituency.</p>
<h2>Strategic restraint to preemptive self-defence</h2>
<p>But Modi’s focus on markets and economic liberalisation has also led to divisions in the Hindu nationalist movement. The grassroots organisation, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which finds its core support among the traditional Hindu nationalist constituency of small traders and farmers, has <a href="http://www.india.com/news/india/100-fdi-in-retail-is-anti-national-rss-affiliate-group-hits-out-at-narendra-modi-government-1274002/">opposed</a> several BJP policies that are seen as too much in favour of the corporate sector and foreign capital.</p>
<p>The BJP’s willingness to publicise the army’s latest cross-border raid signals an attempt to appeal to both the neo-middle class and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh by invoking traditional Hindu nationalist themes of teaching Pakistan “to behave”, as BJP leader <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/surgical-strikes-india-pkaistan-uri-attack-pathankot-attack-narendra-modi-nawaz-sharif-3056843/">Ram Madhav</a> has put it. </p>
<p>But the limited nature of the military response ensures the government’s economic priorities are not displaced, and that the international fall-out is not unmanageable. </p>
<p>This shift in policy is a significant gamble. As the latest attack on the Indian army camp shows, the government risks a serious escalation of violence if the Pakistani government and militant groups in that country respond with further attacks. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fighting-to-the-end-9780199892709?cc=us&lang=en&">fight for Kashmir</a> provides the glue for Pakistani nationalism. For this reason, neither the Congress Party’s approach of making borders irrelevant, nor a military response reliant on the threat of escalating force has previously worked to convince the Pakistani leadership to end its support to militants. </p>
<p>Ultimately, only a return to the negotiating table and addressing Kashmiri grievances is likely to achieve regional stability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Priya Chacko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the latest attack on an Indian army camp shows, India’s shift in policy from strategic restraint to preemptive self-defence is a serious gamble.Priya Chacko, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.