tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/noaa-15304/articlesNOAA – The Conversation2024-03-26T12:40:09Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250612024-03-26T12:40:09Z2024-03-26T12:40:09ZPoliticians may rail against the ‘deep state,’ but research shows federal workers are effective and committed, not subversive<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584101/original/file-20240325-22-7ip3p7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2995%2C2043&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A worker at the National Hurricane Center tracks weather over the Gulf of Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/philippe-papin-hurricane-specialist-at-the-national-news-photo/1494908383">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s common for political candidates to disparage “the government” even as they run for an office in which they would be part of, yes, running the government. </p>
<p>Often, what they’re referring to is what <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=I_z924QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">we</a>, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=RW9itwwAAAAJ">scholars</a> of the inner workings of democracy, call “the administrative state.” At times, these critics use a label of collective distrust and disapproval for government workers that sounds more sinister: “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23276665.2023.2249142">the deep state</a>.”</p>
<p>Most people, however, don’t know what government workers do, why they do it or how the government selects them in the first place.</p>
<p>Our years of research about the people who work in the federal government finds that they care deeply about their work, aiding the public and pursuing the stability and integrity of government.</p>
<p>Most of them are devoted civil servants. Across hundreds of interviews and surveys of people who have made their careers in government, what stands out most to us is their commitment to civic duty without regard to partisan politics. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A drawing of a statue with a caricature of Andrew Jackson riding on a pig." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584107/original/file-20240325-23-c14rfc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Andrew Jackson was a proponent of the ‘spoils system’ in which new presidents could hire friends and supporters into government jobs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:In_memorium--our_civil_service_as_it_was.JPG">Thomas Nast, Harper's Weekly, via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>From spoils to merit</h2>
<p>From the country’s founding through 1883, the U.S. federal government relied on what was called a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/009539979802900606">spoils system</a>” to hire staff. The system got its name from the expression “to the victor goes the spoils.” A newly elected president would distribute government jobs to people who helped him win election.</p>
<p>This system had two primary defects: First, vast numbers of federal jobholders could be displaced every four or eight years; second, many of the new arrivals had no qualifications or experience for the jobs to which they were appointed. </p>
<p>Problems resulting from these defects were smaller than modern Americans might expect, because at that time the federal government was much smaller than it is today and had less to do with Americans’ everyday lives. This method had its defenders, including President Andrew Jackson, who <a href="https://search.worldcat.org/title/7597210">believed that government tasks were relatively simple</a> and anyone could do them.</p>
<p>But even so, the spoils system meant government was not as effective as it could have been – and as the people justifiably expected it to be.</p>
<p>In 1881, President James Garfield was assassinated by a <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/114423/destiny-of-the-republic-by-candice-millard/">man who believed he deserved a government job</a> because of his support for Garfield but didn’t get one. The assassination led to bipartisan passage in Congress of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/pendleton-act">Pendleton Act of 1883</a>. </p>
<p>The law brought sweeping change. It introduced for the first time principles of merit in government hiring: Appointment and advancement were tied to workers’ competence, not their political loyalties or connections. To protect civil servants from political interference, they were given job security: Grounds for firing now revolve around poor performance or misconduct, rather than being a supporter of whichever political party lost the last election.</p>
<p>Nearly <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001">3 million career civil servants</a> continue to have these protections today. New presidents still get to hire <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ppo/">roughly 4,000 political appointees</a> with fewer protections.</p>
<p>As a result of these changes and related reforms in the <a href="https://www.eeoc.gov/history/civil-service-reform-act-1978">Civil Service Reform Act of 1978</a>, the U.S. government is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12945">far more effective today</a> than it was prior to the Pendleton Act. </p>
<p>In fact, U.S. civil service institutions, built on merit-based appointments, merit-based advancement and security of employment, have become the <a href="https://doi.org/10.33545/26646021.2020.v2.i1b.40">standard for democratic governments</a> around the globe. U.S. federal workers are generally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23276665.2023.2249142">high-performing, impartial and minimally corrupt</a> compared with other countries’ civil servants.</p>
<h2>Increasing government responsibilities</h2>
<p>Since 1776, the U.S. population has increased <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/07/july-fourth-celebrating-243-years-of-independence.html">from about 2.5 million people to over 330 million today</a>. With its growing size and with technological advances, the federal government now provides a great many services, including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/opinion/trump-deep-state.html">protecting its citizens</a> from complex environmental, health and international threats.</p>
<p>Environmental Protection Agency employees help maintain clean air and water and clean up toxic waste dumps to protect human health. Department of Energy scientists and managers oversee the treatment and disposal of <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/The-Fifth-Risk/">radioactive nuclear waste</a> from our weapons program and power plants. National Park Service staff manage over <a href="https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/uploads/fy2021-bib-bh081.pdf">85 million acres of public land across all 50 states</a>. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecasters’ advance detection of potential weather emergencies enable early warnings and evacuations from high-risk areas, <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/The-Fifth-Risk/">which has saved countless lives</a>.</p>
<p>Federal Emergency Management Agency employees aid survivors of natural disasters. That agency also subsidizes flood insurance, making home insurance available in flood-prone areas. The U.S. government additionally provides <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/federal-government-pays-farmers-doesnt-mean-farmers-are-fans">billions of dollars in subsidies</a> per year to support farmers and maintain food security. </p>
<p>These programs are all administered by government employees: environmental scientists, lawyers, analysts, diplomats, security officers, postal workers, engineers, foresters, doctors and many other specialized career civil servants. Andrew Jackson’s idea of government work no longer applies: You do not want just anyone managing hazardous waste, sending a space shuttle into orbit or managing public lands constituting <a href="https://www.gao.gov/managing-federal-lands-and-waters">one-third of the country’s territory</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wearing white helmets and white jackets slice open meat carcasses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584104/original/file-20240325-26-idylq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Department of Agriculture food safety inspectors examine meat at a processing plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AgSecretaryFoodSafety/51f2053e7b3841c5b9343ebff015c7c3/photo">AP Photo/Nati Harnik</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A dedicated workforce</h2>
<p>Research, including our own, shows that these workers are not self-serving elites but rather dedicated and committed public servants.</p>
<p>That’s <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/the-new-case-for-bureaucracy/book238024">generally true</a> even of Internal Revenue Service staffers, postal service clerks and other bureaucratic functionaries who may not earn much public respect. Federal employees <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/phantoms-of-a-beleaguered-republic-9780197656945?cc=us&lang=en&">mirror demographics in the United States</a> and are hired, trained and legally obligated to uphold the Constitution and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/725313">serve the public interest</a>.</p>
<p>One of us, Jaime Kucinskas, with sociologist and law professor <a href="https://law.seattleu.edu/faculty/directory/profiles/zylan-yvonne.html">Yvonne Zylan</a>, tracked the experiences of dozens of federal employees across the EPA, Department of Health and Human Services, State Department, Department of Interior, Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security and various other agencies during the Trump administration. That research found these workers were dedicated to serving the public and the Constitution, upholding the missions of their agencies and democracy, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/725313">working to support leadership and the elected president</a>. </p>
<p>Even though 80% of the centrist and Democratic Party-leaning government workers they spoke with did not believe in the ideas behind the Trump presidency, they were careful to follow legal official orders from the administration.</p>
<p>They noted the importance of speaking up while leaders deliberated what to do. After political appointees and supervisors made their decisions, however, even the civil servants who most valued speaking truth to power acknowledged, “Then it’s time to execute,” as one State Department employee told Kucinskas. “As career professionals we have an obligation to carry out lawful instructions, even if we don’t fully agree with it.”</p>
<p>Another international affairs expert told Kucinskas, “People have voted and this is where we’re at. And we’re not going to change things. We don’t do that here.” He said if political appointees “want to do what you consider bad decisions … we do our best to give more information. … And if they still decide to do (it), then we say okay, that’s what we’re going to do.”</p>
<p>He was firm in this loyal and deferential position to the elected president and his administration in 2018 and again in a 2020 follow-up interview. “If you want to be an advocate, you can leave and work in a different sector,” he concluded. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wearing reflective safety vests stand in a clearing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584106/original/file-20240325-20-pr6w27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Environmental Protection Agency workers tour the site of an abandoned mercury mine in California slated for cleanup.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/environmental-protection-agency-remedial-project-manager-news-photo/2041454729">Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Some decided to do just that: More than a quarter of the upper-level government workers Kucinskas spoke with left their positions during the Trump administration. Although exits typically rise during presidential transitions, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jpart/article/31/2/451/5983893">they typically remain under 10%</a>, making this degree of high-level exits unusually high.</p>
<p>Even as many Americans express frustration with the president, Congress and the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/06/06/the-people-of-government-career-employees-political-appointees-and-candidates-for-office/">federal government as a whole</a>, however, we believe it is important not to take for granted what federal government workers are doing well. U.S. citizens benefit from effective federal services, thanks in part because the government hires and rewards civil servants because of their merit rather than loyalty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Years of research about the people who work in the federal government finds that most of them are devoted civil servants who are committed to civic duty without regard to partisan politics.Jaime Kucinskas, Associate Professor of Sociology, Hamilton CollegeJames L. Perry, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs Emeritus, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153952023-10-12T12:30:45Z2023-10-12T12:30:45ZWhat is a strong El Niño? Meteorologists anticipate a big impact in winter 2023-2024, but the forecasts don’t all agree<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553361/original/file-20231011-29-363wak.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C873%2C3211%2C2058&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The El Niño pattern stands out in the warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific in 2023</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/sst-enso-region-monthly-difference-average">NOAA Climate.gov</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Meteorologists have been talking for weeks about <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853">a snowy season ahead</a> in the southern Rockies and the Sierra Nevada. They anticipate <a href="https://www.powder.com/trending-news/el-nino-huge-snow-east">more storms</a> in the U.S. South and Northeast, and warmer, drier conditions across the already dry Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest.</em></p>
<p><em>One phrase comes up repeatedly with these projections: <a href="https://www.wcpo.com/weather/weather-101/a-strong-el-nino-expected-this-winter-heres-what-that-means-for-our-weather">a strong El Niño</a> is coming.</em></p>
<p><em>It sounds ominous. But what does that actually mean? We asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=z7CXcXkAAAAJ&hl=en">Aaron Levine</a>, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington whose research focuses on El Niño.</em></p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wVlfyhs64IY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NOAA explains in animations how El Niño forms.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is a strong El Niño?</h2>
<p>During a normal year, the warmest sea surface temperatures are in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, in what’s known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-016-0054-3">Indo-Western Pacific warm pool</a>.</p>
<p>But every few years, the trade winds that blow from east to west weaken, allowing that warm water to slosh eastward and <a href="https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/schematic-diagrams">pile up along the equator</a>. The warm water causes the air above it to warm and rise, fueling precipitation in the central Pacific and shifting atmospheric circulation patterns across the basin.</p>
<p>This pattern is <a href="https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-el-nino">known as El Niño</a>, and it can <a href="https://www.climate.gov/media/13628">affect weather around the world</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An animation shows how warm water builds up along the equator off South America. The box where temperatures are measured is south of Hawaii." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553048/original/file-20231010-23-c36xip.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553048/original/file-20231010-23-c36xip.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553048/original/file-20231010-23-c36xip.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553048/original/file-20231010-23-c36xip.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553048/original/file-20231010-23-c36xip.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553048/original/file-20231010-23-c36xip.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553048/original/file-20231010-23-c36xip.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The box shows the Niño 3.4 region as El Niño begins to develop in the tropical Pacific, from January to June 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/">NOAA Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A strong El Niño, in the most basic definition, occurs once the average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is at least 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) warmer than normal. It’s measured in an imaginary box along the equator, roughly south of Hawaii, known as the <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4695">Nino 3.4 Index</a>.</p>
<p>But El Niño is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, and the atmosphere also plays a crucial role.</p>
<p>What has been surprising about this year’s El Niño – and still is – is that the atmosphere hasn’t responded as much as we would have expected based on the rising sea surface temperatures.</p>
<h2>Is that why El Niño didn’t affect the 2023 hurricane season the way forecasts expected?</h2>
<p>The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is a good example. Forecasters often use El Niño as a predictor of <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ilx/swop-springtopics">wind shear</a>, which can tear apart Atlantic hurricanes. But with the atmosphere not responding to the warmer water right away, the impact on Atlantic hurricanes was lessened and it turned out to be a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/tropical-storm-sean-hurricane.html">busy season</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00097.1">The atmosphere is what transmits El Niño’s impact</a>. Heat from the warm ocean water causes the air above it to warm and rise, which fuels precipitation. That air sinks again over cooler water. </p>
<p>The rising and sinking creates giant loops in the atmosphere <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy">called the Walker Circulation</a>. When the warm pool’s water shifts eastward, that also shifts where the rising and sinking motions happen. The atmosphere reacts to this change like ripples in a pond when you throw a stone in. These ripples affect the jet stream, which steers weather patterns in the U.S.</p>
<p>This year, in comparison with other large El Niño events – such as <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-ni%C3%B1o-impacts-0">1982-83, 1997-98</a> and <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2015-state-climate-el-ni%C3%B1o-came-saw-and-conquered">2015-16</a> – we’re not seeing the same change in where the precipitation is happening. It’s taking much longer to develop, and it’s not as strong.</p>
<p>Part of that, presumably, is related to the whole tropics being very, very warm. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086182">this is still an emerging field of research</a>.</p>
<p>How El Niño will change with global warming is a big and open question. El Niño <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-oceanic-nino-index">only happens every few years</a>, and there’s a fair amount of variability between events, so just getting a baseline is tough.</p>
<h2>What does a strong El Niño typically mean for US weather?</h2>
<p>During <a href="https://www.climate.gov/enso">a typical El Niño winter</a>, the U.S. South and Southwest are cooler and wetter, and the Northwest is warmer and drier. The upper Midwest tends to be drier, while the Northeast tends to be a little wetter. </p>
<p>The likelihood and the intensity generally scale with the strength of the El Niño event.</p>
<p>El Niño has traditionally been good for the mountain snowpack in California, which the state relies for a large percentage of its water. But it is often not so good for the Pacific Northwest snowpack.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two maps showing wetter, cooler weather in the Southeast and drier warmer air in the north during El Nino." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553424/original/file-20231012-15-3wfvdw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The jet stream takes a very different path in a typical El Niño vs. La Niña winter weather pattern. But these patterns have a great deal of variability. Not every El Niño or La Niña year is the same.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/media/14484">NOAA Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/how-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-affect-winter-jet-stream-and-us-climate">jet stream plays a role</a> in that shift. When the polar jet stream is either displaced very far northward or southward, storms that would normally move through Washington or British Columbia are steered to California and Oregon instead.</p>
<h2>What do the forecasts show for the months ahead?</h2>
<p>Whether forecasters think a strong El Niño will develop depends on whose forecast model they trust.</p>
<p>This past spring, the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/climateservices/NWS%20Climate%20Forecast%20and%20Tools.pdf">dynamical forecast models</a> were <a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table">already very confident</a> about the potential for a strong El Niño developing. These are big models that solve basic physics equations, starting with current oceanic and atmospheric conditions. </p>
<p>However, statistical models, which use statistical predictors of El Niño calculated from historical observations, were less certain.</p>
<p>Even in the <a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table">most recent forecast model outlook</a>, the dynamical forecast models were predicting a stronger El Niño than the statistical models were.</p>
<p>If you go by just a sea surface temperature-based El Niño index, the forecast is for a fairly strong El Niño. </p>
<p>But the indices that incorporate the atmosphere are not responding in the same way. We’ve seen <a href="https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/enso.current.html">atmospheric anomalies</a> – as measured by cloud height monitored by satellites or sea-level pressure at monitoring stations – on and off in the Pacific since May and June, <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553327/original/file-20231011-15-kprvx9.png">but not in a very robust fashion</a>. Even in September, they were nowhere near as large as they were in 1982, in terms of overall magnitude.</p>
<p>We’ll see if the atmosphere catches up by wintertime, when El Niño peaks.</p>
<h2>How long do El Niños last?</h2>
<p>Often during El Niño events – particularly strong El Niño events – the sea surface temperature anomalies collapse really quickly during the Northern Hemisphere spring. Almost all end in April or May.</p>
<p>One reason is that El Niño sows the seeds of its own demise. When El Niño happens, it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054%3C0811:AEORPF%3E2.0.CO;2">uses up that warm water</a> and the warm water volume shrinks. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3C3551:OOWWVC%3E2.0.CO;2">Eventually, it has eroded its fuel</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="aOiS8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aOiS8/14/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The surface can stay warm for a while, but once the heat from the subsurface is gone and the trade winds return, the El Niño event collapses. At the end of past El Niño events, the sea surface anomaly dropped very fast and we saw conditions typically switch to La Niña – El Niño’s cooler opposite.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Levine receives funding from NOAA and has received funding in the past from the National Research Council. He is a member of the American Geophysical Union </span></em></p>An atmospheric scientist explains how El Niño works, this year’s oddities and why this phenomenon doesn’t last long.Aaron Levine, Atmospheric Research Scientist, CICOES, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1872342022-09-27T12:29:12Z2022-09-27T12:29:12ZHurricane hunters flew through Ian’s powerful winds to forecast intensity – here’s what happens when the plane plunges into the eyewall of a storm<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474652/original/file-20220718-24-9bzmk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C8%2C2802%2C1675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flying into Hurricane Harvey aboard a a P-3 Hurricane Hunter nicknamed Kermit in 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lt. Kevin Doreumus/NOAA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>As Hurricane Ian intensified on its way toward the Florida coast, <a href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/find/media/video/dropsonde-launch-and-flight-center-tropical-storm-ian-noaa-wp-3d-orion-miss-piggy-september-25-2022-credit-lt-cmdr-kevin-doremus-0">hurricane hunters were in the sky</a> doing something almost unimaginable: flying through the center of the storm. With each pass, the scientists aboard these planes take measurements that satellites can’t and send them to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.</em></p>
<p><em>Jason Dunion, a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BFiIdhQAAAAJ&hl=en">University of Miami meteorologist</a>, leads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2022 hurricane field program. He described the technology the team is using to gauge hurricane behavior in real time and the experience aboard a <a href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/aircraft/lockheed-wp-3d-orion">P-3 Orion</a> as it plunges through the eyewall of a hurricane.</em> </p>
<h2>What happens aboard a hurricane hunter when you fly into a storm?</h2>
<p>Basically, we’re take a flying laboratory into the heart of the hurricane, all the way up to Category 5s. While we’re flying, we’re crunching data and sending it to forecasters and climate modelers.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/about/hurricane-hunters">P-3s</a>, we routinely cut through the middle of the storm, right into the eye. Picture <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/video/dropsonde-animation-noaa">an X pattern</a> – we keep cutting through the storm multiple times during a mission. These might be developing storms, or they might be Category 5s.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="View out the aircraft window of the eyewall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486820/original/file-20220927-18-3ei8of.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486820/original/file-20220927-18-3ei8of.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486820/original/file-20220927-18-3ei8of.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486820/original/file-20220927-18-3ei8of.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486820/original/file-20220927-18-3ei8of.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486820/original/file-20220927-18-3ei8of.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486820/original/file-20220927-18-3ei8of.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the eye of Hurricane Teddy in 2020. The eye is the calmest part of the storm, but it’s surrounded by the most intense part: the eyewall.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/media/images">Lt. Cmdr. Robert Mitchell/NOAA Corps</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We’re typically flying at an altitude of around 10,000 feet, about a quarter of the way between the ocean surface and the top of the storm. We want to cut through the roughest part of the storm because we’re trying to measure <a href="https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/data/NGCS/lobjects/chp/structure/">the strongest winds</a> for the Hurricane Center. </p>
<h2>That has to be intense. Can you describe what scientists are experiencing on these flights?</h2>
<p>My most intense flight was Dorian in 2019. The storm was near the Bahamas and <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf">rapidly intensifying to a very strong Category 5</a> storm, with winds around 185 mph. It felt like being a feather in the wind.</p>
<p>When we were coming through the eyewall of Dorian, it was all seat belts. You can lose a few hundred feet in a couple of seconds if you have a down draft, or you can hit an updraft and gain a few hundred feet in a matter of seconds. It’s a lot like a rollercoaster ride, only you don’t know exactly when the next up or down is coming.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="View of Earth and a large hurricane from a portal on the space station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486822/original/file-20220927-12-shn7r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486822/original/file-20220927-12-shn7r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486822/original/file-20220927-12-shn7r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486822/original/file-20220927-12-shn7r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486822/original/file-20220927-12-shn7r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486822/original/file-20220927-12-shn7r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486822/original/file-20220927-12-shn7r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Dorian seen from the International Space Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145559/a-devastating-stall-by-hurricane-dorian">NASA Expedition 60</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At one point, we had G-forces of 3 to 4 Gs. That’s what <a href="https://www.spaceanswers.com/space-exploration/what-g-force-do-astronauts-experience-during-a-rocket-launch/">astronauts experience</a> during a rocket launch. We can also get <a href="https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1575179322599493632">zero G for a few seconds</a>, and anything that’s not strapped down will float off.</p>
<p>Even in the rough parts of the storm, scientists like myself are busy on computers working up the data. A technician in the back may have launched a dropsonde from the belly of the plane, and we’re checking the quality of the data and sending it off to modeling centers and the National Hurricane Center.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1575288070223630336"}"></div></p>
<h2>What are you learning about hurricanes from these flights?</h2>
<p>One of our goals is to better understand why storms <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-was-a-record-breaker-and-its-raising-more-concerns-about-climate-change-150495">rapidly intensify</a>. </p>
<p>Rapid intensification is when a storm increases in speed by 35 mph in just a day. That equates to going from Category 1 to a major Category 3 storm in a short period of time. <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ida-turned-into-a-monster-thanks-to-a-giant-warm-patch-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-heres-what-happened-167029">Ida</a> (2021), <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf">Dorian</a> (2019) and <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf">Michael</a> (2018) are just a few recent hurricanes that rapidly intensified. When that happens near land, it can catch people unprepared, and that gets dangerous fast.</p>
<p>Since rapid intensification can happen in a really short time span, we have to be out there with the hurricane hunters taking measurements while the storm is coming together.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pilot at the controls with the storm seen through the window" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486826/original/file-20220927-24-tc8raz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486826/original/file-20220927-24-tc8raz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486826/original/file-20220927-24-tc8raz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486826/original/file-20220927-24-tc8raz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486826/original/file-20220927-24-tc8raz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486826/original/file-20220927-24-tc8raz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486826/original/file-20220927-24-tc8raz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A hurricane hunter flies through Hurricane Ida in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/media/images">Lt. Cmdr. Kevin Doremus/NOAA Corps</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So far, rapid intensification is <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/why-scientists-had-trouble-predicting-hurricane-michael-s-rapid-intensification">hard to predict</a>. We might start to see the ingredients quickly coming together: Is the ocean warm to a great depth? Is the atmosphere nice and juicy, with a lot of moisture around the storm? Are the winds favorable? We also look at the inner core: What does the structure of the storm look like, and is it starting to consolidate?</p>
<p>Satellites can offer forecasters a basic view, but we need to get our hurricane hunters into the storm itself to really pick the hurricane apart.</p>
<h2>What does a storm look like when it’s rapidly intensifying?</h2>
<p>Hurricanes like to stand up straight – think of a spinning top. So, one thing we look for is alignment.</p>
<p>A storm that isn’t yet fully together might have low-level circulation, a few kilometers above the ocean, that isn’t lined up with its mid-level circulation 6 or 7 kilometers up. That isn’t a very healthy storm. But a few hours later, we might fly back into the storm and notice that the two centers are more lined up. That’s a sign that it could rapidly intensify.</p>
<p>We also look at the <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/planetary-boundary-layer-parametrization/">boundary layer</a>, the area just above the ocean. Hurricanes breathe: They draw air in at low levels, the air rushes up at the eyewall, and then it vents out at the top of the storm and away from the center. That’s why we get those huge updrafts in the eyewall.</p>
<p>So we might watch our dropsonde or tail doppler radar data for how the winds are flowing at the boundary layer. Is that really moist air rushing in toward the center of the storm? If the boundary layer is deep, the storm can also take a bigger inhale.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474543/original/file-20220718-18-7tvint.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474543/original/file-20220718-18-7tvint.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474543/original/file-20220718-18-7tvint.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474543/original/file-20220718-18-7tvint.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474543/original/file-20220718-18-7tvint.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474543/original/file-20220718-18-7tvint.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474543/original/file-20220718-18-7tvint.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cross-section of a hurricane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/tc_structure">National Weather Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also look at the structure. A lot of times the storm looks healthy on satellite, but we’ll get in with the radar and the structure is sloppy or the eye may be filled with clouds, which tells us the storm isn’t quite ready to rapidly intensify. But, during that flight, we might start to see the structure change pretty quickly.</p>
<p>Air in, up and out – the breathing – is a great way to diagnose a storm. If that breathing looks healthy, it can be a good sign of an intensifying storm.</p>
<h2>What instruments do you use to measure and forecast hurricane behavior?</h2>
<p>We need instruments that not only measure the atmosphere but also the ocean. The winds can steer a storm or tear it apart, but the ocean heat and moisture are its fuel.</p>
<p>We use <a href="https://www.eol.ucar.edu/content/what-dropsonde">dropsondes</a> to measure temperature, humidity, pressure and wind speed, and send back data every 15 feet or so all the way to the ocean surface. All of that data goes to the National Hurricane Center and to modeling centers so they can get a better representation of the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A scientist in a flight suit puts a device into a tube in the bottom of the plane to drop it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486828/original/file-20220927-12-391k29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486828/original/file-20220927-12-391k29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486828/original/file-20220927-12-391k29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486828/original/file-20220927-12-391k29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486828/original/file-20220927-12-391k29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486828/original/file-20220927-12-391k29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486828/original/file-20220927-12-391k29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A NOAA technician deploys an airborne expendable bathythermograph.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/media/images">Paul Chang/NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One P-3 has a laser – a <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/3_2021HFP_InstrumentDescriptions.pdf">CRL, or compact rotational raman LiDAR</a> – that can measure temperature, humidity and aerosols from the aircraft all the way down to the ocean surface. It can give us a sense of how juicy the atmosphere is, so how conducive it is for feeding a storm. The CRL operates continuously over the entire flight track, so you get this beautiful curtain below the aircraft showing the temperature and humidity.</p>
<p>The planes also have <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/real-time-doppler-radar/">tail doppler radars</a>, which measure how moisture droplets in the air are blowing to determine how the wind is behaving. That gives us a 3D look at the wind field, like an X-ray of the storm. You can’t get that from a satellite.</p>
<p>We also launch ocean probes call AXBTs – <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/axbt.php">aircraft expendable bathythermograph</a> – out ahead of the storm. These probes measure the water temperature down several hundred feet. Typically, a surface temperature of 26.5 degrees Celsius (80 Fahrenheit) and above is favorable for a hurricane, but the depth of that heat is also important. </p>
<p>If you have warm ocean water that’s maybe 85 F at the surface, but just 50 feet down the water is quite a bit colder, the hurricane is going to mix in that cold water pretty quickly and weaken the storm. But deep warm water, <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ida-turned-into-a-monster-thanks-to-a-giant-warm-patch-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-heres-what-happened-167029">like we find in eddies</a> in the Gulf of Mexico, provides extra energy that can fuel a storm.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map showing Ida's track and the depth of heat" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476567/original/file-20220728-27592-3cxnt3.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476567/original/file-20220728-27592-3cxnt3.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476567/original/file-20220728-27592-3cxnt3.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476567/original/file-20220728-27592-3cxnt3.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476567/original/file-20220728-27592-3cxnt3.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476567/original/file-20220728-27592-3cxnt3.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476567/original/file-20220728-27592-3cxnt3.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The depth of ocean heat as Hurricane Ida headed for a warm eddy boundary on Aug. 28, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Miami</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This year, we’re also testing a new technology – small drones that we can launch out of the belly of a P-3. They have about a 7- to 9-foot wingspan and are basically a weather station with wings.</p>
<p>One of these drones dropped in the eye could measuring pressure changes, which indicate whether a storm is getting stronger. If we could drop a drone in the eyewall and have it orbit there, it could measure where the strongest winds are – that’s another important detail for forecasters. We also don’t have a lot of measurements in the boundary layer because it’s not a safe place for a plane to fly. </p>
<h2>You also targeted the Cabo Verde islands off Africa for the first time this year. What are you looking for there?</h2>
<p>The Cabo Verde Islands are in the Atlantic’s hurricane nursery. The seedlings of hurricanes come off Africa, and we’re trying to determine the tipping points for theses disturbances to form into storms.</p>
<p>Over half the named storms we get in the Atlantic come from this nursery, including <a href="https://oceanweatherservices.com/blog/2022/03/20/what-should-we-expect-for-the-2022-hurricane-season/">about 80% of the major hurricanes</a>, so it’s important, even though the disturbances are maybe seven to 10 days ahead of a hurricane forming.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The plane on a runway at sunrise." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486821/original/file-20220927-16-bc6a7c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486821/original/file-20220927-16-bc6a7c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486821/original/file-20220927-16-bc6a7c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486821/original/file-20220927-16-bc6a7c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486821/original/file-20220927-16-bc6a7c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486821/original/file-20220927-16-bc6a7c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486821/original/file-20220927-16-bc6a7c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NOAA’s P-3 Orion nicknamed ‘Kermit’ prepares to take off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/media/images">Lt. Cmdr Rannenberg/NOAA Corps</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Africa, a lot of thunderstorms develop along the Sahara desert’s southern border with the cooler, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.510">moister Sahel region</a> in the summer. The temperature difference can cause ripples to develop in the atmosphere that we call tropical waves. Some of those tropical waves are the precursors for hurricanes. However, the <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/saharan-air-layer/">Saharan air layer</a> – huge dust storms that come rolling off Africa every three to five days or so – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0212.1">can suppress a hurricane</a>. These storms peak from June to mid-August. After that, tropical disturbances have a better chance of reaching the Caribbean.</p>
<p>At some point not too far in the future, the National Hurricane Center will have to do a seven-day forecast, rather than just five days. We’re figuring out how to improve that early forecasting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Dunion receives funding from NOAA, NASA, and the Office of Naval Research.</span></em></p>The meteorologist leading NOAA’s 2022 hurricane field program describes flying through eyewalls and the technology in these airborne labs for tracking rapid intensification in real time.Jason Dunion, Research Meteorologist, University of MiamiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1749082022-01-26T15:35:30Z2022-01-26T15:35:30ZMethane in the atmosphere is at an all-time high – here’s what it means for climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442758/original/file-20220126-17-19vy5kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4904%2C2759&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sunrise over a bog in Eastern Europe.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-beautiful-bog-estonian-nature-1798429729">Adamikarl/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Methane recently reached 1,900 parts per billion (ppb) of Earth’s atmosphere according to measurements taken by the <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a> (NOAA) in the US. This compares with about <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2020.0459">700 ppb</a> before the industrial revolution.</p>
<p>Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, but lasts <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2020.0440">around nine years</a> in the air. Including the knock-on effects it has on other gases, its total global warming impact since 1750 is roughly <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_06.pdf">half that of CO₂</a>.</p>
<p>After rising sharply in the 1980s and 1990s, atmospheric methane then stabilised. Growth resumed in 2007 and has <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2020.0440">accelerated in recent years</a> – the sharpest rise on record happened in 2020. This was not expected when world leaders signed the 2015 Paris Agreement. Methane is becoming the <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions">largest discrepancy</a> from emissions trajectories necessary for meeting the agreement’s target.</p>
<p>So what’s behind the recent surge – and is there a way to reverse it?</p>
<h2>Where methane comes from</h2>
<p>About 600 million tonnes of methane are released into the atmosphere each year. <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">Estimates</a> suggest two-fifths of these emissions come from natural sources, mainly rotting vegetation in swamps. The remaining three-fifths of emissions come from sources tied to human activity.</p>
<p>Emissions from the fossil fuel industry are well over 100 million tonnes a year and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003GL018126">grew rapidly in the 1980s</a>. Natural gas, which in the UK heats homes and generates <a href="https://grid.iamkate.com/">roughly half of electricity</a>, is mainly methane. Gas industry leaks are widespread at wells and pipelines and from distribution pipes under streets and home boilers. The coal industry was reponsible for up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">one-third of fossil fuel emissions</a> between 2000 and 2017 via ventilation shafts in mines and during the transportation and crushing of coal for power stations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A gas flare atop a metal structure." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442702/original/file-20220126-25-1rt6lsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4249%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442702/original/file-20220126-25-1rt6lsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442702/original/file-20220126-25-1rt6lsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442702/original/file-20220126-25-1rt6lsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442702/original/file-20220126-25-1rt6lsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442702/original/file-20220126-25-1rt6lsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442702/original/file-20220126-25-1rt6lsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane in the atmosphere increased as the fossil fuel sector expanded in the 1980s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-plant-flaring-terminal-1949988883">Alexisaj/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Agriculture, producing about <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">150 million tonnes a year</a>, is the largest overall source. As are urban landfills and sewage systems, contributing about <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">70 million tonnes annually</a>. </p>
<p>Scientists can identify sources of methane by studying the proportion of carbon-12 to carbon-13 in the atmosphere. These different forms of carbon – chemically similar but with different masses – are known as isotopes. Biogenic methane, made by microbes in rotting vegetation or in cow stomachs, is relatively rich in carbon-12, while methane from fossil fuels and fires has comparatively more carbon-13.</p>
<p>For two centuries, rapidly expanding gas, coal and oil industries steadily drove atmospheric methane richer in carbon-13. Since 2007, that trend has reversed, and the proportion of carbon-13 in atmospheric methane has <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GB006009">decreased</a>. Although fossil fuel emissions may still be growing, soaring methane emissions are now primarily the result of faster-growing biogenic sources. </p>
<h2>Why are biogenic emissions growing?</h2>
<p>Global monitoring shows that in many years since 2007, methane’s growth in the atmosphere has been led from sources in the tropics and sub-tropics. In some years, the high northern latitudes have also been important contributors.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A colourful chart depicting growth in methane emissions over time according to latitude." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441048/original/file-20220117-17-jellmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane growth rate by year and latitude. The tropics and sub-tropics are between 30°N and 30°S, while the Arctic is north of 66°N.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/figures/">NOAA</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From tropical swamps in the Amazon, Nile and Congo basins to tundra in Russia and muskeg bogs in Canada, wetlands emit roughly <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">200 million tonnes</a> of methane a year. As global temperatures increase, the rate at which wetlands generate and decompose biomass grows and these environments release more methane. Methane emissions accelerate climate change and climate change causes the release of more methane – a positive feedback of warming feeding more warming.</p>
<p>The microbes in the stomachs of ruminant animals like cattle, sheep, goats and camels are similar to wetland microbes. In effect, cows are walking wetlands. Ruminants produce nearly as much methane as fossil fuel emissions, roughly <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">115 million tonnes annually</a>. Globally, about <a href="https://www.fao.org/sustainability/news/detail/en/c/1274219/">two-thirds</a> of farmland is animal pasture.</p>
<p>While emissions from landfills have been <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/ch4-emissions-from-landfills-and#tab-chart_1">reduced</a> in many countries in Europe, western Europe emits a lot of methane from biodigesters which convert urban food and garden waste to fertiliser. In Africa and India, expanding cities are creating new landfills while rural areas burn vast quantities of crop waste and grass, causing widespread air pollution, but there is little research on their emissions.</p>
<h2>Mopping up methane</h2>
<p>Methane’s short lifetime means that cutting emissions <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-a-global-methane-pledge-is-great-but-only-if-it-doesnt-distract-us-from-co-cuts-171069">quickly reduces the greenhouse impact</a>. Gas leaks are obvious targets, both at wells and in leaky street pipes. <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-heres-what-it-would-take-to-end-coal-power-worldwide-171025">Ending the coal industry</a> is an urgent global priority, not just to cut methane but also CO₂ and air pollution.</p>
<p>In the short-term, removing methane from coal mine air ventilation and cattle barns can be done as easily as certain pollutants are <a href="https://www.durham.ac.uk/news-events/latest-news/2021/10/tackling-the-moothane-problem---cutting-greenhouse-gas-from-livestock/https://www.durham.ac.uk/news-events/latest-news/2021/10/tackling-the-moothane-problem---cutting-greenhouse-gas-from-livestock/">removed from car exhausts</a>. Emissions from biodigesters will need stricter government regulation.</p>
<p>Reducing emissions in tropical nations means ending crop waste burning. Landfills are likely to be fast-growing sources of both methane and pollution too, yet emissions can be cut by <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019RG000675">covering landfills with soil</a>.</p>
<p>Growing agricultural emissions are linked to rapid human population growth and the increasing global demand for a meat-rich diet. Population growth is slowed by improving access to education among women and girls.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A red cow licking a sampling rod with yellow wire attached." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442756/original/file-20220126-15-1bv4zzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C613%2C409&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442756/original/file-20220126-15-1bv4zzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442756/original/file-20220126-15-1bv4zzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442756/original/file-20220126-15-1bv4zzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442756/original/file-20220126-15-1bv4zzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442756/original/file-20220126-15-1bv4zzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442756/original/file-20220126-15-1bv4zzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demand for meat is fuelling methane emissions from converted tropical forests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.lucybroderickphotography.com/">Lucy Broderick</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Methane hitting 1,900 ppb is a fire alarm. We cannot stop natural wetland emissions. But human-caused emissions can be reduced, quickly. At COP26 in Glasgow – the most recent UN climate change summit in November 2021 – more than 100 nations signed <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-a-global-methane-pledge-is-great-but-only-if-it-doesnt-distract-us-from-co-cuts-171069">the Global Methane Pledge</a>, promising to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. </p>
<p>Getting started is simple: plug gas leaks, cover landfills, halt crop waste burning and remove methane from coal mine ventilation. All these actions will have wider benefits such as reducing air pollution, but large emitters, including China, India, Russia, Qatar and Australia, did not join. Absentee nations ultimately harm themselves and should sign the pledge.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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</figcaption>
</figure>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Nisbet receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council, the European Union and the United Nations. </span></em></p>Recent estimates put atmospheric methane at 1,900 parts per billion – close to triple its pre-industrial average.Euan Nisbet, Professor of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1745652022-01-10T16:25:44Z2022-01-10T16:25:44Z2021’s biggest climate and weather disasters cost the U.S. $145 billion – here’s what climate science says about them in 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439926/original/file-20220109-34059-orcudc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5503%2C3644&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Residents had to be rescued as Hurricane Ida flooded coastal Louisiana in August 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-react-as-a-sudden-rain-shower-soaks-them-with-water-news-photo/1234968513">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The disasters just kept coming in 2021, from Hurricane Ida’s destruction across Louisiana and the Northeast to devastating wildfires in the West and damaging storms, tornadoes and floods. Nearly half the U.S. was in drought, and extreme temperature spikes disrupted power supplies just when people needed cooling or heating most. </p>
<p>In all, the costliest U.S. weather and climate disasters of the year did an estimated <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/overview">US$145 billion in damage</a> and claimed at least 688 lives, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced on Jan. 10, 2022. </p>
<p>It was the third-most expensive year on record.</p>
<p>2021 was also <a href="https://theconversation.com/ocean-heat-is-at-record-levels-with-major-consequences-174760">one of the hottest</a> years globally and the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202112">4th hottest year in the U.S.</a> in 127 years of record-keeping. <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them-164919">Not every weather event</a> is caused by global warming, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588">rising temperatures affect the climate</a> in ways that <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/">amplify heat waves</a> and droughts and can supercharge storms. Much of that temperature rise <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change">is caused by greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of costliest U.S. weather and climate disasters of 2021" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440121/original/file-20220110-19-gmrzgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202112">NCEI/NOAA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>As the disasters unfolded, scientists explained the influence of climate change. Here’s what they said about some of the costliest disasters of 2021.</p>
<h2>Extreme rainfall in the east, drought in the west</h2>
<p>One characteristic that stood out during the disasters of 2021 was a sharp precipitation divide in the U.S.: While most of the west was in severe drought or worse, with the dry vegetation fueling fires, much of the eastern half of the country was getting soaked.</p>
<p>Extreme downpours in August triggered flash floods across Tennessee that swept away homes and vehicles and killed 20 people. A few days later, the remnants of Hurricane Ida crossed the country and hit New York City with <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ida-2-reasons-for-its-record-shattering-rainfall-in-nyc-and-the-northeast-long-after-the-winds-weakened-167252">record-shattering rainfall</a> that submerged subway stations and basement apartments, killing dozens more.</p>
<p>On the other side of the country, damage from the western drought was much harder to calculate. The extreme dryness <a href="https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2022/Hyatt-Powerplant-at-Oroville-Dam-Resumes-Operation">shut down a key hydroelectric power plant</a> in California for five months, <a href="https://www.fsa.usda.gov/Assets/USDA-FSA-Public/usdafiles/Disaster-Assist/Secretarials/2021-Secretarial-Disasters/ALL_Drought_CY2021.pdf">harmed farms and ranches</a> and led to the first federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-colorado-river-basin-states-confront-water-shortages-its-time-to-focus-on-reducing-demand-165646">water use restrictions for the Colorado River</a> as levels dropped in important reservoirs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of Lake Mead shows intake towers far above the water level and light rock around edges indicate low water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439920/original/file-20220109-13-12ynvgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439920/original/file-20220109-13-12ynvgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439920/original/file-20220109-13-12ynvgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439920/original/file-20220109-13-12ynvgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439920/original/file-20220109-13-12ynvgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439920/original/file-20220109-13-12ynvgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439920/original/file-20220109-13-12ynvgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hoover Dam intake towers and ‘bathtub ring’ along the edges of the Colorado River’s Lake Mead shows how far the water level has fallen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/intake-towers-for-water-to-enter-to-generate-electricity-news-photo/1234075907">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Global warming helps <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-colorado-fires-cap-a-year-of-climate-disasters-in-2021-with-one-side-of-the-country-too-wet-the-other-dangerously-dry-173402">fuel both kinds of precipitation extremes</a>, Dayton University climate scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eUrrnQkAAAAJ&hl=en">Shuang-Ye Wu</a> explained.</p>
<p>“Higher temperature increases evaporation from Earth’s surface, drying out vegetation and soils, which can fuel wildfires. It also increases the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture at a rate of about 7% per degree Celsius that the planet warms. With more moisture evaporating, global precipitation is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">expected to increase</a>, but this increase is not uniform,” Wu wrote.</p>
<p>As the planet warms, wet areas are likely to get wetter, and dry areas drier, she said.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-colorado-fires-cap-a-year-of-climate-disasters-in-2021-with-one-side-of-the-country-too-wet-the-other-dangerously-dry-173402">Devastating Colorado fires cap a year of climate disasters in 2021, with one side of the country too wet, the other dangerously dry</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>No. 1: Hurricane Ida</h2>
<p>Hurricane Ida, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ida-turned-into-a-monster-thanks-to-a-giant-warm-patch-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-heres-what-happened-167029">exploded from a weak hurricane to a Category 4 storm over warm water</a> in the Gulf of Mexico, was the most expensive disaster of 2021, with damage in Louisiana and then in the Northeast <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/2021">estimated at around $75 billion</a>.</p>
<p>University of Miami oceanographer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=48fm7gEAAAAJ&hl=en">Nick Shay</a> explained how the storm passed over a large pool of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico that had spun off from the Loop Current. That warm pool’s heat, extending <a href="http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php">down about 480 feet</a>, fueled its strength. </p>
<p>Hurricanes are fueled by warm water, so <a href="https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/sea-surface-temperatures">warming surface temperatures</a> will have an effect on them. Climate models suggest that Atlantic hurricane <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">rainfall and intensity will increase</a>, but there won’t necessarily be more of the storms. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ida-turned-into-a-monster-thanks-to-a-giant-warm-patch-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-heres-what-happened-167029">Hurricane Ida turned into a monster thanks to a giant warm patch in the Gulf of Mexico – here’s what happened</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map of surface temperatures" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439842/original/file-20220107-17-zfgn1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439842/original/file-20220107-17-zfgn1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439842/original/file-20220107-17-zfgn1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439842/original/file-20220107-17-zfgn1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439842/original/file-20220107-17-zfgn1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439842/original/file-20220107-17-zfgn1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439842/original/file-20220107-17-zfgn1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ida’s route to Louisiana passed over very warm water. The scale shows in meters the maximum depth at which temperatures were at least 78 F (26 C), considered a general threshold for hurricanes to develop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Miami</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No. 2: The Texas freeze</h2>
<p>In February, an Arctic blast sent ice, snow and freezing temperatures through the center of the country. In Texas, the cold blast quickly became a human disaster. The cold weather <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-texas-electricity-system-produced-low-cost-power-but-left-residents-out-in-the-cold-155527">overwhelmed Texas’ power grid</a>, <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/">freezing components</a> at natural gas plants and slowing natural gas supplies. An estimated <a href="https://uh.edu/hobby/winter2021/">69% of the state lost power</a>, and NOAA counted 226 deaths. State officials have attributed <a href="https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news/updates/SMOC_FebWinterStorm_MortalitySurvReport_12-30-21.pdf">246 deaths</a> to the storm.</p>
<p>That cold wave was the second-most expensive U.S. disaster of 2021, with costs estimated at around $24 billion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Shoppers, some bundled up against the cold, wait in line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439844/original/file-20220107-32935-1vp7z4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439844/original/file-20220107-32935-1vp7z4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439844/original/file-20220107-32935-1vp7z4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439844/original/file-20220107-32935-1vp7z4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439844/original/file-20220107-32935-1vp7z4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439844/original/file-20220107-32935-1vp7z4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439844/original/file-20220107-32935-1vp7z4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Temperatures in Texas plunged into the teens in February 2021, knocking out power for a population unaccustomed to cold.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/customers-wait-in-line-to-enter-frontier-fiesta-on-february-news-photo/1231221869">Thomas Shea / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While it may seem counterintuitive, <a href="https://doi.org/10.25923/gcw8-2z06">rapidly warming temperatures in the Arctic</a> can trigger this kind of southward dip of the jet stream, a strong band of winds at the boundary between colder and warmer air. Research by atmospheric scientists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=en">Mathew Barlow</a> at the University of Massachusetts Lowell and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kc2doosAAAAJ&hl=en">Judah Cohen</a> at MIT <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">shows how that can happen</a> as changes in the Arctic are followed by changes in the stratospheric polar vortex, which are followed by cold waves in North America and Asia. </p>
<p>“Our research reinforces two crucial lessons of climate change: First, the change doesn’t have to occur in your backyard to have a big effect on you. Second, the unexpected consequences can be quite severe,” they wrote.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">How Arctic warming can trigger extreme cold waves like the Texas freeze – a new study makes the connection</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>No. 3: Devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>The heat and dryness in the West contributed to more multibillion-dollar disasters. On Dec. 30, when Colorado would normally be blanketed in snow, a wildfire whipped by powerful winds tore through neighborhoods in <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-colorado-fires-cap-a-year-of-climate-disasters-in-2021-with-one-side-of-the-country-too-wet-the-other-dangerously-dry-173402">abnormally dry Boulder County</a>. Nearly 1,000 homes and several businesses were destroyed in a matter of hours.</p>
<p>The blaze followed devastating fires in California over the summer. Altogether, damage from the 2021 Western fires was estimated at $10.6 billion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fire moves through a neighborhood, burning around one house and into another." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439921/original/file-20220109-17-158cetw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439921/original/file-20220109-17-158cetw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439921/original/file-20220109-17-158cetw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439921/original/file-20220109-17-158cetw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439921/original/file-20220109-17-158cetw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439921/original/file-20220109-17-158cetw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439921/original/file-20220109-17-158cetw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fires that devastated parts of Boulder County, Colo., were moving so fast officials could do little more than evacuate homes in their path.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-marshall-fire-continues-to-burn-out-of-control-on-news-photo/1362007101">RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As rising global temperatures dry out vegetation, forest managers are dealing with increasing wildfire risks and costs. <a href="https://www.redding.com/story/news/local/fires/2021/08/12/how-much-california-spending-put-out-large-wildfires/8099097002/">Fighting huge wildfires</a>, like the Dixie and Caldor fires in California that destroyed much of <a href="https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7690/">Greenville</a> and <a href="https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7801/">Grizzly Flats</a> in 2021, depletes funds needed for fire prevention efforts, such as <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/8.2.21-USDA-letter.pdf">forest thinning and prescribed burns</a>, University of California forest and fire experts <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XRht7F0AAAAJ&hl=en">Susan Kocher</a> and <a href="https://celassen.ucanr.edu/Contact_Us/?facultyid=42299">Ryan Tompkins</a> wrote.</p>
<p>“To manage fires in an era of climate change, where drier, hotter weather creates ideal conditions for burning, experts estimate that the area treated for fuels reduction needs to increase by at least an <a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-beyond-americas-war-on-wildfire-4-ways-to-avoid-future-megafires-168898">order of magnitude</a>,” they said.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-beyond-americas-war-on-wildfire-4-ways-to-avoid-future-megafires-168898">Moving beyond America's war on wildfire: 4 ways to avoid future megafires</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What about the tornadoes?</h2>
<p>Tornadoes, like the deadly outbreak that created another multibillion-dollar disaster across Kentucky and nearby states in early December, haven’t been clearly connected to global warming, but climate models <a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-and-climate-change-what-a-warming-world-means-for-deadly-twisters-and-the-type-of-storms-that-spawn-them-173645">can still provide some insight</a>, as Central Michigan University meteorology professor <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8gw9cb8AAAAJ&hl=en">John Allen</a> explained.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man carries suitcases out of the shell of a splintered house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439922/original/file-20220109-19-1kxs3et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439922/original/file-20220109-19-1kxs3et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439922/original/file-20220109-19-1kxs3et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439922/original/file-20220109-19-1kxs3et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439922/original/file-20220109-19-1kxs3et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439922/original/file-20220109-19-1kxs3et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439922/original/file-20220109-19-1kxs3et.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tornadoes ripped a 250-mile path of destruction across Kentucky and neighboring states in December.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brad-purdy-salvages-items-from-his-home-after-it-was-news-photo/1359229906">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>“There are certainly signals pointing in the direction of a stormier future,” Allen said, “but how this manifests for tornadoes is an open area of research.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-and-climate-change-what-a-warming-world-means-for-deadly-twisters-and-the-type-of-storms-that-spawn-them-173645">Tornadoes and climate change: What a warming world means for deadly twisters and the type of storms that spawn them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives. It has been updated with NOAA’s disaster map.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174565/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A hurricane that wreaked havoc from Louisiana to New York City, the Texas freeze and devastating western wildfires topped NOAA’s list of billion-dollar disasters in 2021.Stacy Morford, Environment + Climate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1665422021-08-26T12:11:04Z2021-08-26T12:11:04ZScientists are using new satellite tech to find glow-in-the-dark milky seas of maritime lore<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418509/original/file-20210830-23-4gkx18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C248%2C1163%2C838&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For centuries, sailors have told tales of milky seas – huge swaths of ocean glowing on dark nights, seen in blue in this false–color satellite image. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven D. Miller/NOAA</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>“The whole appearance of the ocean was <a href="https://www.science-frontiers.com/sf086/sf086g12.htm">like a plain covered with snow</a>. There was scarce a cloud in the heavens, yet the sky … appeared as black as if a storm was raging. The scene was one of awful grandeur, the sea having turned to phosphorus, and the heavens being hung in blackness, and the stars going out, seemed to indicate that all nature was preparing for that last grand conflagration which we are taught to believe is to annihilate this material world.”<br>
– Captain Kingman of the American clipper ship Shooting Star, offshore of Java, Indonesia, 1854</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For centuries, sailors have been reporting strange encounters like the one above. These events are called milky seas. They are a rare nocturnal phenomenon in which the ocean’s surface emits a steady bright glow. They can cover thousands of square miles and, thanks to the colorful accounts of 19th-century mariners like Capt. Kingman, milky seas are a well-known part of maritime folklore. But because of their remote and elusive nature, they are extremely difficult to study and so remain more a part of that folklore than of science.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://www.cira.colostate.edu/staff/miller-steve/">professor of atmospheric science</a> specializing in <a href="https://www.cira.colostate.edu">satellites used to study Earth</a>. Via a stat-of-the-art generation of satellites, my colleagues and I have developed a new way <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94823-z">to detect milky seas</a>. Using this technique, we aim to learn about these luminous waters remotely and guide research vessels to them so that we can begin to reconcile the surreal tales with scientific understanding.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A glass beaker glowing with a bluish light." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417912/original/file-20210825-17175-1prypkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The bioluminescence in milky seas is caused by a type of bacteria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve. H. D. Haddock/MBARI</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sailors’ tales</h2>
<p>To date, only one research vessel <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0981(88)90152-9">has ever encountered a milky sea</a>.
That crew collected samples and found a strain of luminous bacteria called <em>Vibrio harveyi</em> colonizing algae at the water’s surface. </p>
<p>Unlike bioluminescence that happens close to shore, where small organisms called dinoflagellates flash brilliantly when disturbed, luminous bacteria work in an entirely different way. Once their population gets large enough – about 100 million individual cells per milliliter of water – a sort of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1128/AEM.72.4.2295-2297.2006">internal biological switch is flipped</a> and they all start glowing steadily. </p>
<p>Luminous bacteria cause the particles they colonize to glow. Researchers think the purpose of this glow could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081028">to attract fish that eat them</a>. These bacteria thrive in the guts of fishes, so when their populations get too big for their main food supply, a fish’s stomach makes a great second option. In fact, if you go into a refrigerated fish locker and turn off the light, you may notice that some fish emit a <a href="http://www.floridasportsman.com/2017/12/12/glow-dark-seafood/">greenish-blue glow</a> – this is <a href="https://seafood.oregonstate.edu/sites/agscid7/files/snic/glowing-seafood.pdf">bacterial light</a>. </p>
<p>Now imagine if a gargantuan number of bacteria, spread across a huge area of open ocean, all started glowing simultaneously. That makes a milky sea.</p>
<p>While biologists know a lot about these bacteria, what causes these massive displays remains a mystery. If bacteria growing on algae were the main cause of milky seas, they’d be happening all over the place, all the time. Yet, per surface reports, only about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0507253102">two or three milky seas occur per year</a> worldwide, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94823-z">mostly in the waters of the northwest Indian Ocean and off the coast of Indonesia</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image showing four different panels, with a swoosh shape apparent in all of them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417840/original/file-20210825-25-12ysz9o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers found a milky sea event off the coast of Somalia, seen here as a pale swoosh in the top left image. The other panels show sea surface temperature, ocean currents and chlorophyll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven D. Miller/NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Satellite solutions</h2>
<p>If scientists want to learn more about milky seas, they need to get to one while it’s happening. Trouble is, milky seas are so elusive that it has been almost impossible to sample them. This is where my research comes into play.</p>
<p>Satellites offer a practical way to monitor the vast oceans, but it takes a special instrument able to detect light around 100 million times fainter than daylight. My colleagues and I first explored the potential of satellites in 2004 when we used U.S. defense satellite imagery <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0507253102">to confirm a milky sea</a> that a British merchant vessel, the SS Lima, reported in 1995. But the images from these satellites were very noisy, and there was no way we could use them as a search tool.</p>
<p>We had to wait for a better instrument – the Day/Night Band – planned for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s new constellation of satellites. The new sensor went live in late 2011, but our hopes were initially dashed when we realized the Day/Night Band’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1207034109">high sensitivity</a> also detected <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/0034-4885/34/3/302">light emitted by air molecules</a>. It took years of studying Day/Night Band imagery to be able to interpret what we were seeing.</p>
<p>Finally, on a clear moonless night in early 2018, an odd swoosh-shaped feature appeared in the Day/Night Band imagery offshore Somalia. We compared it with images from the nights before and after. While the clouds and airglow features changed, the swoosh remained. We had found a milky sea! And now we knew how to look for them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A satellite image of a massive, question mark-shaped white area off the coast of a brightly lit island." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417845/original/file-20210825-15-oadtk1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This milky sea off the coast of Java was the size of Kentucky and lasted for more than a month.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven D. Miller/NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The “aha!” moment that unveiled the full potential of the Day/Night Band came in 2019. I was browsing the imagery looking for clouds masquerading as milky seas when I stumbled upon an astounding event south of the island of Java. I was looking at an enormous swirl of glowing ocean that spanned over 40,000 square miles (100,000 square km) – roughly the size of Kentucky. The imagery from the new sensors provided a level of detail and clarity that I hadn’t imagined possible. I watched in amazement as the glow slowly drifted and morphed with the ocean currents. </p>
<p>We learned a lot from this watershed case: how milky seas are related to sea surface temperature, biomass and the currents – important clues to understanding their formation. As for the estimated number of bacteria involved? Approximately 100 billion trillion cells – nearly the total estimated number of stars <a href="https://www.space.com/26078-how-many-stars-are-there.html">in the observable universe</a>!</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two satellite images of Java showing a large question mark-shaped area of light-colored sea surface." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417711/original/file-20210824-17640-s8f2g3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1010%2C1022&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417711/original/file-20210824-17640-s8f2g3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417711/original/file-20210824-17640-s8f2g3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417711/original/file-20210824-17640-s8f2g3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417711/original/file-20210824-17640-s8f2g3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417711/original/file-20210824-17640-s8f2g3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417711/original/file-20210824-17640-s8f2g3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The two images on the left were taken with older satellite technology while the images on the right show the high-definition imagery produced by the Day/Night Band sensor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven D. Miller/NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future is bright</h2>
<p>Compared with the old technology, viewing Day/Night Band imagery is like putting on glasses for the first time. My colleagues and I have analyzed thousands of images taken since 2013, and we’ve uncovered 12 milky seas so far. Most happened in the very same waters where mariners have been reporting them for centuries. </p>
<p>Perhaps the most practical revelation is how long a milky sea can last. While some last only a few days, the one near Java carried on for over a month. That means that there is a chance to deploy research craft to these remote events while they are happening. That would allow scientists to measure them in ways that reveal their full composition, how they form, why they’re so rare and what their ecological significance is in nature.</p>
<p>If, like Capt. Kingman, I ever do find myself standing on a ship’s deck, casting a shadow toward the heavens, I’m diving in! </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven D. Miller receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Office of Naval Research.</span></em></p>When conditions are just right in some parts of the Indian Ocean, a type of bacteria will multiply and start to glow. Satellites are helping scientists study these milky seas for the first time.Steven D. Miller, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1644632021-07-16T12:27:10Z2021-07-16T12:27:10ZAs coastal flooding worsens, some cities are retreating from the water<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411383/original/file-20210715-19-1kuf0na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4425%2C3005&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Storms hitting at high tide can quickly flood streets.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/local-resident-walks-her-dogs-on-a-flooded-street-in-news-photo/491275438">Mladen Antonov/AFP via Getty Image</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the tide gets exceptionally high in Charleston, South Carolina, coastal <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/rising-waters/a-sunny-day-in-charleston-and-a-flood-what-that-tells-us-about-climate-change/article_367fb068-f9b9-11ea-b881-4ff1fcafa0a9.html">streets start to run with seawater</a>. Some yards become ponds, and residents pull on rain boots.</p>
<p>The city also gets a lot of rain. After homes in one low-lying neighborhood flooded three times in four years, the city offered to buy out <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/news/charleston-begins-mass-demolition-of-32-frequently-flooded-west-ashley-townhomes/article_9378654e-a28a-11e9-9cdf-4b2aa9211e78.html">32 flood-prone town homes</a> and turn the land back into open space that can be used for managing future floodwater. It’s a strategy coastal cities from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2020/04/13/after-decades-waterfront-living-climate-change-is-forcing-communities-plan-their-retreat-coasts/">Virginia</a> to
<a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-24/marina-sea-level-rise">California</a> are contemplating more often as <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/4/-8900989.821357647/3864465.2930145906/15/satellite/146/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion">tidal flooding increases with sea level rise</a>.</p>
<p>Cities all along the U.S. coasts have seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-tide-flood-risk-is-accelerating-putting-coastal-economies-at-risk-164481">high-tide flooding days increase</a>. In 2021, the U.S. coasts are projected to see an average of three to seven high-tide flooding days, rising to 25-75 days by midcentury, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns in its <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/HighTideFlooding_AnnualOutlook.html">annual high-tide flooding outlook</a>, released July 14, 2021.</p>
<p>Low-lying Charleston saw a record-breaking <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/HighTideFlooding_AnnualOutlook.html">14 days of high-tide flooding in 2020</a>, and parts of the city <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/rising-waters/a-sunny-day-in-charleston-and-a-flood-what-that-tells-us-about-climate-change/article_367fb068-f9b9-11ea-b881-4ff1fcafa0a9.html">count even more flood days</a>. The city is <a href="https://abcnews4.com/news/local/billion-dollar-seawall-around-charleston-proposed-to-battle-future-hurricane-storm-surge">considering new sea walls</a> to protect against hurricanes, and other measures to try to keep tidal and storm flooding out of threatened neighborhoods. It is <a href="https://www.charleston-sc.gov/DocumentCenter/View/18518/BAR-Elevation-Design">elevating some homes</a>. And it has started helping resident relocate away from high-risk areas. It’s a strategy known as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abh1894">managed retreat</a> – the purposeful movement of people, buildings and other infrastructure away from highly hazardous places.</p>
<p><iframe id="wnpVc" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wnpVc/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Managed retreat is <a href="https://grist.org/climate/retreat-from-coastlines-politicians-dont-want-to-talk-about-it/">controversial</a>, particularly in the United States. But it isn’t just about moving – it’s about adapting to change and building communities that are safer, addressing long-overlooked needs and incorporating new technologies and thoughtful design for living and working in today’s world.</p>
<p>We argue in a <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6548/1274">special issue of the journal Science</a> that managed retreat is an opportunity to preserve the essential while redesigning high-risk areas in ways that are better for everyone.</p>
<h2>What managed retreat can look like</h2>
<p>U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Oliver P. Smith famously said of a retreat he led during the Korean War: “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_P._Smith">Retreat! Hell! We’re just advancing in a different direction</a>.” Like Gen. Smith’s maneuver, retreat from climate change-related hazards, at its core, is about choosing a new direction.</p>
<p>Managed retreat could involve turning streets into canals in coastal cities. It could mean purchasing and demolishing flood-prone properties to create open spaces for <a href="https://www.pilotonline.com/government/local/article_97835ce8-d869-11e8-8a88-3ff92071794b.html">stormwater parks</a> that absorb heavy rains or retention ponds and pumping stations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="5 illustrations of a coastal town showing different ways managed retreat and other tools can be combined to adapt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407290/original/file-20210618-30-b3psm3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Managed retreat is one part of an adaptation toolkit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/268277.php?from=506941">Elena Hartley</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In some cases, managed retreat may involve building denser, more affordable housing that’s designed to stay cool, while leaving open spaces for recreation or agriculture that can also reduce heat and absorb stormwater when needed.</p>
<p>Managing retreat well is challenging. It affects numerous people – the residents who relocate, their neighbors who remain, and the communities where they move – and each may be affected differently. <a href="http://soldiersgrove.com/history/the-floods/">Soldiers Grove, Wisconsin</a>, relocated its flood-prone business district in the late 1970s and used the opportunity to heat the new buildings with solar energy, earning the nickname “Solar Village.” The move reinvigorated the local economy; yet while the project is hailed as a success, some residents still miss the old town. For managed retreat to be a viable strategy, relocation plans must not only help people move to safer ground but also meet their needs. This may involve a wide range of social issues, including cultural practices, affordable housing, building codes, land use, jobs, transportation and utilities. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1157300079482613760"}"></div></p>
<p>Since high-risk areas are often home to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt9qggrp">low-income communities and Black, Indigenous and other communities of color</a>, addressing climate risk in these areas may also require addressing a national legacy of racism, segregation and disinvestment that has put these communities at risk and left many with few choices to address floods, fires and other hazards. </p>
<p>At its simplest, managed retreat can be a lifeline for families who are tired of the emotional and financial stress of rebuilding after floods or fires but <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/30/us/hurricane-harvey-flooding-canyon-gate.html">cannot afford to sell their home at a loss</a> or don’t want to sell and put another family at risk.</p>
<h2>Talking about managed retreat</h2>
<p>Even if an individual or community decides not to retreat, thinking critically and talking openly about managed retreat can help people understand why remaining in place is important, and what risks they are willing to face in order to stay.</p>
<p>The losses involved in moving can be obvious, including cost, but there are losses to staying in place, too: physical risk of future hazards, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03069-1">increased emotional and financial stress</a>, potential <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/10/09/768697825/how-a-proposal-to-reduce-flood-risk-in-ellicott-city-nearly-destroyed-the-commun">loss of community</a> if some residents or businesses leave to find safer ground, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10398560701701288">pain from watching the environment change</a> and lost opportunities to improve.</p>
<p>If people can articulate why it is important to remain in place, they can make better plans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A storm-battered home on stilts in Nags Head sits out over the water with sandbags below it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407292/original/file-20210618-26003-1tpnoiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407292/original/file-20210618-26003-1tpnoiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407292/original/file-20210618-26003-1tpnoiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407292/original/file-20210618-26003-1tpnoiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407292/original/file-20210618-26003-1tpnoiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407292/original/file-20210618-26003-1tpnoiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407292/original/file-20210618-26003-1tpnoiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Communities in North Carolina’s Outer Banks are deciding how much they’re willing to pay to continue rebuilding island roads after storms in high-risk areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nags-head-beach-house-on-stilts-surrounded-by-high-tide-news-photo/1277728431">John Greim/Loop Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Maybe it is important to stay because a building is historic and people want to protect that history. That opens up creative conversations about the ways people have <a href="https://www.achp.gov/success-stories/moving-flood-prone-houses-saves-history-and-engages-community">preserved risk-prone historic buildings</a> and sites. And it invites others to help <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912246117">document that heritage and educate the community</a>, perhaps though oral histories, video records or 3D models.</p>
<p>Maybe it is important for owners to stay because the land has been in the family for generations. That could kick-start conversations with the next generation about their goals for the land, which may include preservation but may also include changes. </p>
<p>Maybe a deep, emotional attachment to a community or home could make a person want to stay. Conversations could focus on moving nearby – to a new house that’s safer but still part of the community – or physically relocating the house to a safer place. It could also mean <a href="https://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/toolkits/managed-retreat-toolkit/life-estates-and-future-interests.html">finding strategies, like life estates, that allow people to stay in their home</a> as long as they want but would prevent a new family from moving in and putting their kids at risk.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>If the local economy depends on the beach, that could start a conversation about why <a href="https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/publications/Romine%20Fletcher%202013%20Oahu%20Armoring.pdf">moving back from the beach</a> can be the best way to save the beach and its ecosystem, to prevent walls from narrowing it and to maintain public access without homes on stilts hovering over the tide.</p>
<p>Thinking carefully about what parts of our lives and communities should stay the same opens space to think creatively about what parts should or could change. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-tide-flood-risk-is-accelerating-putting-coastal-economies-at-risk-164481">High-tide flood risk is accelerating, putting coastal economies at risk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on June 21, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>A.R. Siders has received funding on related projects from The Nature Conservancy. She consults with state and local governments on planning for climate change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharine Mach has received funding relevant to climate resilience through the Miami Foundation. She has consulted for local governments on planning for climate change and served in several advisory roles.</span></em></p>Done right, managed retreat redesigns communities to be better for everyone. Here’s how it’s evolving for the future.A.R. Siders, Assistant Professor, Disaster Research Center, University of DelawareKatharine Mach, Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Policy, University of MiamiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1596842021-05-07T12:43:31Z2021-05-07T12:43:31ZWarming is clearly visible in new US ‘climate normal’ datasets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399032/original/file-20210505-21-9lx20u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C0%2C6827%2C4582&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sunrise in Stone Harbor, New Jersey.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/summer-sunrise-royalty-free-image/1171419055">Robert D. Barnes via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Anyone who listens to weather reports has heard meteorologists comment that yesterday’s temperature was 3 degrees above normal, or last month was much drier than normal. But what does “normal” mean in this context – and in a world in which the climate is changing? </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a> has released updated “climate normals” – datasets that the agency produces every 10 years to give forecasters and the public baseline measurements of average temperature, rainfall and other conditions across the U.S. As the state climatologist and assistant state climatologist for Colorado, we work with this information all the time. Here’s what climate normals are, how they’ve changed, and how you can best make sense of them.</p>
<h2>What are the new normals?</h2>
<p>NOAA’s <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/noaa-delivers-new-us-climate-normals">National Centers for Environmental Information</a> released the new set of normals, covering 1991-2020, on May 4, 2021. Climatologists have been performing calculations on data from long-term observing stations around the country for a wide range of parameters, including high and low temperature, precipitation and snowfall. </p>
<p>The data also includes more detailed statistics, like the normal number of days below freezing or those with more than an inch of snowfall. NOAA puts data from individual stations onto a grid to enable the creation of useful maps for the entire country, even in places with relatively few observing stations. This provides a wealth of information for anyone interested in the climate of a specific area. </p>
<h2>Why are normals updated?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.wmo.int/datastat/wmodata_en.html">World Meteorological Organization</a> sets international standards for climatological normals, defined as a 30-year periods that are regularly updated. The idea is to have global consistency for analysis. The 30-year normals also create a benchmark that represents recent climate conditions and serves as a reference for assessing current conditions. </p>
<p>Climate change highlights the need for regularly updating these normals. For the past 10 years, weather professionals have used the 1981-2010 climate normals as our reference. But we’ve <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-and-1991-2020-us-climate-normals">observed above-average temperatures much more frequently</a> than below-average temperatures from 1991-2020 for much of the U.S. Updating the normals is a way to calibrate to our most recently observed climate. </p>
<p>And as the climate continues to change, the further away in time we get from the “normal” period, the less representative that period will become. Using a very long period of time, or not regularly updating the period, could lead to including observations that would be extremely unlikely in our climate today. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there are situations in which it makes sense to consider periods longer than 30 years – for example, to understand long-term changes to the climate or to monitor extremes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Most of the U.S. had more months in 1991-2020 that were warmer than the 1981-2010 average than months that were colder." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398197/original/file-20210430-13-ekujn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Difference in the number of months that had above-normal vs. below-normal temperature by county for the period 1991-2020, with respect to the 1981-2010 normals. Areas in red and brown had far more months that were were warmer than normal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Becky Bolinger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The concept of ‘normal’ in weather and climate</h2>
<p>An old saying, <a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/06/24/climate-vs-weather/">often attributed to Mark Twain</a>, asserts that “climate is what you expect, and weather is what you get.” Calculations of normal climate conditions for particular locations show how this works.</p>
<p>For example, data from the long-term weather and climate observing station in Fort Collins, Colorado, where we work, shows that precipitation in summer (June, July and August) over the 30 years from 1991 to 2020 varied significantly from year to year. The lowest summer rainfall was 1.48 inches in 2002 and the highest was 14.79 inches in 1997. Most years, it’s somewhere between 3 and 5 inches.</p>
<p>But few years match the average value, just shy of 5 inches. So even though we call this the “normal” amount of rainfall, in most years the total is higher or lower – sometimes by quite a bit. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Average summer precipitation in Fort Collins, Colorado, can vary by a factor of 10 from year to year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398195/original/file-20210430-16-17n2m8a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Summer precipitation at Fort Collins, Colorado, for the years 1991-2020. The black circle indicates the 30-year average precipitation of 4.97 inches.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Russ Schumacher and Becky Bolinger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Looking at summer temperatures from the same station, let’s compare the previous 30-year period, 1981-2010, with the most recent 30-year period, 1991-2020. The data shows a shift toward higher temperatures between the two time periods. The normal summer temperature increased by nearly 1 degree, from 69.6 to 70.4 F. This “new normal” for the past 30 years reflects climate warming that has occurred both locally and globally. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1562/test_transition.gif?1620247860">
<figcaption><span class="caption">Comparing the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 normals for Fort Collins, Colorado, shows how summers there are warming. The black circle indicates the average value for each time period. Credit: Russ Schumacher and Becky Bolinger.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the new normals show</h2>
<p>The key change that’s reflected in shifting from the 1981-2010 normals to the new 1991-2020 set is dropping the 1980s and adding the 2010s. The climate has been warming, so the new normals show <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-and-1991-2020-us-climate-normals">higher temperatures for most regions and most months of the year</a>. </p>
<p>Across the continental U.S., the temperature rose by about 0.5 F on average from the 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 period. The new average is 1.2 F warmer than that of the 20th century. A couple of exceptions are cooling observed in the spring over the Northern Great Plains and cooling over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in November. December shows the greatest amount of warming. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Average temperatures were higher across most of the U.S. in 1991-2020 than in 1981-2010." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398472/original/file-20210503-13-zktu9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Difference between 1991-2020 average and 1981-2010 average temperatures for each month, with annual change in the bottom panel. Oranges and reds show where the new normals are warmer; blues and purples show where the new normals are cooler.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Russ Schumacher and Becky Bolinger, data from NOAA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Precipitation is more variable than temperature from year to year and decade to decade. As a result, the changes in normal precipitation represent a mix of effects from long-term climate change and natural variations. </p>
<p>Overall, the 2010s were very wet in much of the central and eastern U.S. and dry in the west, and the normals reflect that. Average annual rainfall in Houston increased by over an inch, to 55.6 inches per year, while at Phoenix, Arizona, it dropped from an already dry 8.02 inches to a parched 7.22 inches per year. </p>
<p>On a monthly basis, some of the most notable patterns to emerge are widespread drying in November, particularly over the Gulf states and along the Pacific Coast, and a wetter pattern over the eastern half of the country in April. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Most of the Central and Eastern U.S. was wetter in 1991-2020 than in 1981-2010, while most Western states were drier." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398474/original/file-20210503-23-1wrjapr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Difference between 1991-2020 average and 1981-2010 average precipitation for each month, with the annual change in the bottom panel. Browns shading shows where the new normals are drier; green shading shows where the new normals are wetter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Russ Schumacher and Becky Bolinger, data from NOAA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shifting to new climate normals can have counterintuitive effects. For example, in the next few years there may be a better chance that you’ll see what are now described as cooler-than-normal temperatures in a given day or month. Using Fort Collins again as an example, before the update, a summer average temperature of 70 F would have been slightly warmer than normal. Now that same summer would go down as being slightly cooler than normal, even though it would still be warmer than around 100 of the 127 years in the history of that location. </p>
<p>Meteorologists and climatologists are already starting to incorporate these new normals into our work. But when you hear the term “normal,” keep in mind that it reflects a 30-year snapshot and represents a different reality today than it did 30, 60 or 100 years ago. </p>
<p>[<em>Get our best science, health and technology stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russ Schumacher receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Colorado Agricultural Experiment Station for research on and monitoring of Colorado's weather and climate.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Becky Bolinger receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Colorado Agricultural Experiment Station to monitor the climate of Colorado.</span></em></p>The US is shifting to a new set of climate ‘normals’ – data sets averaged over the past 30 years. But normal is a relative concept in a time of climate change.Russ Schumacher, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science and Colorado State Climatologist, Colorado State UniversityBecky Bolinger, Assistant State Climatologist and Research Scientist in Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1331212020-03-24T12:15:15Z2020-03-24T12:15:15ZTagging data show that blue sharks are true globalists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322015/original/file-20200320-22610-1butyn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1488%2C926&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A blue shark in the Channel Islands off California.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/cNchYY">NOAA SWFSC/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322014/original/file-20200320-22618-19xzk8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322014/original/file-20200320-22618-19xzk8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322014/original/file-20200320-22618-19xzk8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322014/original/file-20200320-22618-19xzk8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322014/original/file-20200320-22618-19xzk8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322014/original/file-20200320-22618-19xzk8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322014/original/file-20200320-22618-19xzk8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Blue sharks are among the widest-ranging shark species in the oceans. We know this partly because from 1962 to 2013, 117,962 blue sharks were tagged as part of the ongoing <a href="https://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/nefsc/Narragansett/sharks/tagging.html">Cooperative Shark Tagging Program</a>. </p>
<p>This partnership between the commercial fishing industry, the U.S. government, recreational fishermen and academic research scientists is the longest-running tagging program in the world. Since its launch in 1962, participants have tagged hundreds of thousands of sharks representing 35 different species. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322018/original/file-20200320-22636-1dph7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A dart tag, one type used in the Cooperative Shark Tagging Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/nefsc/Narragansett/sharks/tagging.html">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More than half (51%) of the animals tagged were <a href="https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/discover-fish/species-profiles/prionace-glauca/">blue sharks</a> (<em>Prionace glauca</em>) – a total of 117,962 individual sharks. This is probably because blues are abundant: They are found in all of the world’s oceans, as far north as Alaska and as far south as Chile, but rarely venture near shore.</p>
<p>Unlike some other sharks, blues are not a prized commercial species, likely because most people think they <a href="https://www.ifish.net/board/showthread.php?t=258823">taste disgusting</a>. That makes fishermen willing to tag and release them instead of harvesting them. </p>
<p>But blue sharks are often caught unintentionally as <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/node/251">bycatch</a> along with targeted fish. They are classified as <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/39381/2915850">near threatened</a>, and there is evidence that their <a href="https://www.mcsuk.org/30species/blue-shark">population is decreasing</a>. </p>
<p>Each tag attached to a shark carries an identification number and contact information, so that recaptures can be reported and matched to data collected during the initial tagging. The data show that these sharks really move. One traveled a record-breaking 3,997 nautical miles from waters off Long Island, New York, where it was first tagged, to the south Atlantic where it was recaptured – a distance longer than the Great Wall of China. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319717/original/file-20200310-61127-15jtekc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blue sharks range throughout the world’s tropical and temperate oceans (blue zones).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cypron-Range_Prionace_glauca.svg">IUCN Redlist/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The sharks were caught in all seasons throughout their range, in tropical waters warmer than 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) and temperate waters, which range from 50°-68°F (10°-20°C). In more tropical climates, blue sharks occupy waters as deep as 1,150 feet (350 meters), which are cooler than water near the surface. Their ability to inhabit a wide range of depths enables them to move around as seasons and water temperatures change. </p>
<p>Tagging data confirm that blue sharks migrate incredibly long distances, with some even crossing the equator from the North Atlantic to the South Atlantic. All of this movement allows them to mix and mingle with individuals throughout their range. This tells scientists that all blue sharks in the Atlantic Ocean are part of one mating pool, and can be considered one big population, rather than smaller separate groups. </p>
<p>The fact that blue sharks range so widely suggests that an event in one part of the Atlantic, such as an oil spill, could potentially affect the number of mating pairs across the population. This could reduce the number of blue sharks in the next generation and lead to a decline in their population throughout the Atlantic. It could also reduce their genetic diversity and make the survivors more prone to mortality from disease. </p>
<p>About 7% of the tagged blue sharks (8,213) were recaptured later, sometimes after more than a decade. One shark was recaptured nearly 16 years after it was first tagged. Scientists estimated that this shark was between 8 and 11 years old at the time it was tagged, based on its size. That original age estimate would have made the shark 24 to 27 years old when it was recaptured, which falls within the current estimated range of maximum age for the species. </p>
<p>Thanks to tagging data, scientists have learned a lot about the ecology of several species, including <a href="http://sedarweb.org/docs/wpapers/S39_DW_20_NEFSCmarkrecap.pdf">smooth dogfish</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1011017109776">sandbar sharks</a>. As a scientist pursuing a career in <a href="https://mote.org/staff/member/jasmin-graham">marine conservation</a>, I look forward to more wondrous discoveries about these marvelous animals. </p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jasmin Graham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You won’t see a blue shark near the beach, but thanks to 50 years of tagging data, scientists are learning about their wide-ranging lives at sea.Jasmin Graham, Ph.D. Candidate in Marine Science, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229102019-09-03T18:04:07Z2019-09-03T18:04:07ZDamage estimates for hurricanes like Dorian don’t capture the full cost of climate change-fueled disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290760/original/file-20190903-175691-osz1nv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cars sit submerged in water from Hurricane Dorian in Freeport, Bahamas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Bahamas-Tropical-Weather/c33e35acc57449a5b6a701b73564bf7c/3/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03092019/hurricane-dorian-climate-change-stall-record-wind-speed-rainfall-intensity-global-warming-bahamas">Scientists say climate change</a> is causing powerful hurricanes like Dorian to increasingly stall over coastal areas, which leads to heavy flooding. Officials in the Bahamas <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/damage-bahamas-will-be-unprecedented-storm-unleashes-massive-flooding-n1048856">feared “unprecedented” devastation</a> after Dorian hovered over the islands for two days, pummeling it with rain. </p>
<p>But beyond more intense and slow-moving hurricanes, the warming climate <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-climate-change-deaths_us_5c101e14e4b0ac5371799b1c">has been blamed</a> for <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28663496">causing a sharp uptick</a> in all types of extreme weather events across the country, from <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/climate-change-500-percent-increase-california-wildfires/594016/">explosive wildfires in California</a> to <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/this-springs-flooding-crisis-is-part-of-a-bigger-patter-1835092237">severe flooding across the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.climate.gov/USdrought2018">extensive drought</a> in the Southwest.</p>
<p>Late last year, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html">media blared</a> that these and other consequences of climate change <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/24/18109883/climate-report-2018-national-assessment">could cut U.S. GDP</a> by 10% by the end of the century – “more than double the losses of the Great Depression,” as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/23/climate/us-climate-report.html">The New York Times intoned</a>. That figure was drawn from a single figure in the U.S. government’s <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov">Fourth National Climate Assessment</a>. (Disclosure: I reviewed that report and was the vice chair on the third one, released in 2014.)</p>
<p>If that sounds scary, I have good news and bad news. The good news is that that figure was drawn incorrectly from a significant misreading of the report – which actually offered a range of a loss of GDP from as low as 6% to as high as 14% by 2090.</p>
<p>The bad news, however, is that a more meaningful assessment of the costs of climate change – using basic economic principles <a href="https://gyohe.faculty.wesleyan.edu">I teach to undergrads</a> – is a hell of a lot scarier.</p>
<h2>Tallying the costs</h2>
<p>First, let’s look at how government agencies, insurance companies and the media calculate and report on the economic costs of disasters. </p>
<p>According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2018 Hurricanes Michael and Florence each caused about US$25 billion in damages, <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2018-was-4th-hottest-year-on-record-for-globe">contributing to a total toll of $91 billion</a> from that year’s weather and climate disasters. In 2017, the NOAA’s total was even bigger: $306 billion, <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2017-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historic-year">due to the massive destruction</a> from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. </p>
<p>But these tallies are not really valid measures of economic damage. Instead, they simply reflect estimates of what people think will need to be invested to rebuild what was damaged or destroyed in the storms, floods or fires.</p>
<p>To really understand the economic costs of an extreme weather event, it’s important to consider all the investment that is being “crowded out” or lost to cover those rebuilding costs. Put another way, there’s only so much money to go around. And that $25 billion being used to rebuild means $25 billion is not being used for other public and private investment opportunities that are more forward-looking or more likely to promote growth.</p>
<h2>Accounting for growth</h2>
<p>Instead, I believe a fundamentally more sound way to do this is to use something called “growth accounting.”</p>
<p><a href="https://economics.mit.edu/files/7183">Growth accounting</a> incorporates the productive use of capital and innovation into the equation. The question we want to ask is what happens to GDP growth when recovery efforts from extreme events crowd out productive investments, like building new factories or roads and bridges.</p>
<p>Returning to NOAA’s estimated losses for 2017 and 2018, productive investment fell about $400 billion in total in those years as a result. That is, had those disasters not happened, investment would have been that much higher. And that diminished investment translates into less growth in gross domestic product – a measure of all an economy produces in a given period.</p>
<p>If similar experiences in extreme events occur for the next 10 years – which is not a bad assumption given that four of the most expensive years in history <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-201812">have occurred in the last five</a> – U.S. GDP in 2029 would be about 3.6% lower than it would have been otherwise, based on my calculations using growth accounting. </p>
<p>That amounts to an economy that’s $1 trillion poorer as result of these extreme weather events crowding out productive investment.</p>
<p>This is the real cost of a world in which these types of massively destructive disasters happen more frequently. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290753/original/file-20190903-175686-l8vwid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change costs may be unfathomable by the end of the century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Polar-Bear-Weight-Loss/c6edeba474164dc893b00c0263f13264/29/0">AP Images/Brian Battaile</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sooner and scarier</h2>
<p>Returning to our 10% figure, 3.6% is comparatively smaller, of course, but it’s much sooner, which makes it much scarier. </p>
<p>Why?</p>
<p>Because the number of extreme events and their destructive power keeps <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/state-of-climate-2018-shows-accelerating-climate-change-impacts">increasing at an accelerating rate</a>. If we can expect to take a $1 trillion hit over just the next decade, the costs by the end of the century are hardly fathomable.</p>
<p>So while I may disagree with the numbers The New York Times and others use in tallying disasters, they are right to try to spur readers to action. </p>
<p>The situation is just a lot more dire then anyone realizes. With any luck, the size of the figure will frighten us to do more to stave off the worst. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/108315/edit">article originally published</a> on May 31, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary W. Yohe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The usual way we calculate the economic damage of natural disasters underestimates their true toll – which is key to understanding the costs of climate change.Gary W. Yohe, Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Wesleyan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1194992019-07-22T10:55:31Z2019-07-22T10:55:31ZWaiting for an undersea robot in Antarctica to call home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281448/original/file-20190626-76705-w53a62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C310%2C5184%2C3135&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One of two underwater gliders is deployed from a research ship into Antarctic waters.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Call! Just call!” I think loudly in my head. “Did something happen? Are you okay?”</p>
<p>I might seem like a worried parent waiting for a teenager to report in from an unsupervised outing. Rather, I’m a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jenmariewalsh">research biologist</a> with the Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s late February 2019, and I am waiting for an autonomous underwater glider in Antarctica to surface and call me via satellite, so I can give it new diving instructions. The longest it’s supposed to go without surfacing is eight hours, and it’s now been nine.</p>
<p>Did it get stuck under an iceberg? An underwater ledge? I feel so helpless; I’m 9,000 miles away in San Diego and all I can do is chew my fingernails and think, “No. This can’t happen. We can’t lose this glider so close to the end.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281837/original/file-20190628-94720-cx387f.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The survey area where gliders measured Antarctic krill populations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our research team is two-and-a-half months into a three-month-long mission just north of the Antarctic Peninsula. This is our first time deploying gliders so far from home, and our hope for a successful field season – not to mention a great deal of research – depends on recovering the two gliders our group deployed in December 2018. The gliders are now full of oceanographic data that will help us provide scientific advice on how best to conserve the Antarctic ecosystem as the area around the peninsula warms faster than almost any other region on Earth, which may adversely affect the animals that live there.</p>
<h2>9 hours, 30 minutes: No call</h2>
<p>For over 30 years, the <a href="https://swfsc.noaa.gov/textblock.aspx?id=551&ParentMenuId=42">NOAA group I’m part of</a> has conducted studies to estimate how many Antarctic krill, small shrimp-like creatures that support the diverse Antarctic food web, live around the Antarctic Peninsula.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281449/original/file-20190626-76734-1ycpivt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Antarctic krill, <em>Euphausia superba</em>, can grow up to about 2.5 inches long.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Krill666.jpg">Uwe Kils/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Krill feeds penguins and seals that breed in this area every summer and whales and fishes that feed here year-round, while also supporting a major fishery. You may have seen bright-red dietary supplements made from krill oil prominently displayed at the pharmacy. Our data help establish catch limits for the krill fishery, ensuring enough krill remain in the ocean to maintain the population after all people and animals take what they need to make a living. Without good data to support fishery-management decisions, krill fishing could <a href="https://www.ccamlr.org/en/fisheries/krill-%E2%80%93-biology-ecology-and-fishing">undermine the food web</a> for which Antarctica is so well known, as demand for supplements and other <a href="https://bestmarketherald.com/krill-oil-market-demand-expected-to-raise-by-dietary-supplements-segment-in-upcoming-years/">krill products surges</a>.</p>
<h2>10 hours: No call</h2>
<p>Until three years ago, my program chartered a research vessel for a month each year to sail around the Antarctic Peninsula and <a href="https://swfsc.noaa.gov/contentblock.aspx?ID=14326&ParentMenuId=42">estimate the biomass of krill</a>. But after 2016, rising vessel costs eliminated our surveys. For our program to continue, we had to find a creative way to collect our data in Antarctica without actually going to Antarctica. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281776/original/file-20190628-94724-w5a3pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An autonomous glider in the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our solution was to use autonomous underwater gliders, which can be deployed in just a few hours by a small team from a ship in Antarctica, and then recovered months later. Gliders can dive to 3,000 feet, cover thousands of miles and follow commands from anywhere in the world with a laptop and an internet connection. Their batteries last six months, which means that they can collect much more data for much less money than a bunch of scientists on a research vessel. </p>
<p>The gliders resemble torpedoes in appearance, but contain three massive batteries and an array of scientific sensors that collect much of the same data we used to collect from a ship. Although the gliders are able to transmit small amounts of data via satellite throughout the deployment, the most valuable data are stored on the glider. If we lose a glider, which is always a possibility when you let something roam free in the ocean unattended for months, then we also lose the data.</p>
<p>We had effectively replaced ourselves with drones. But would they work?</p>
<h2>12 hours: No call</h2>
<p>For most of our team, the transition just a year ago from annual research voyages to the aquatic versions of C-3PO and R2-D2 was exciting. Secretly, though, I was terrified. I had spent my career as a scientist collecting krill samples from research vessels for biochemical analyses of their tissues. Suddenly I found myself ousted by oceanographic robots full of cables, wires, circuit boards and all sorts of other technological gadgetry.</p>
<p>These are not what you’d call smart robots. A bit like human toddlers, they have some degree of self-awareness, but would destroy themselves without semi-constant monitoring and instructions on how deep to dive or where to go. Outside supervision is especially important in the Southern Ocean, which is full of seamounts, canyons, strong currents and, most importantly, icebergs. </p>
<p>You can’t glider-proof the ocean the way you can baby-proof a house, so I had to forget everything I knew about biochemistry and learn as much as I could about glider piloting in 10 short months.</p>
<h2>13 hours: No call</h2>
<p>All that training and practice felt like 10 minutes by the time we finally packed up the gliders and shipped them to the Southern Hemisphere for their first Antarctic deployments. The commands for how deep to dive and where to go seemed simple enough, but the gliders responded as unpredictably as the ocean itself. </p>
<p>A near-disastrous practice deployment in San Diego revealed how slowly they maneuver, particularly in strong currents. Piloting them felt like trying to drive a remote-control semi-truck through a go-kart course, which reinforced our apprehension about driving these things through the ocean all the way across the planet, in one of the most remote and treacherous oceans on Earth.</p>
<p>Never mind the wind and the currents and the icebergs. What made this deployment far scarier was that if things started to go horribly wrong, we had no way to get the gliders back. It was like dropping a toddler off at college on another continent: What if he needs you and you can’t get to him?</p>
<h2>14 hours: No call</h2>
<p>Almost exactly 10 months from our first day of glider training, we carried the gliders across the Drake Passage on a research vessel bound for the Antarctic Peninsula. The deployments were flawless, and over the next few days, our confidence began to build. We quickly learned that icebergs were enemy number one, and they were formidable opponents. Satellite images of icebergs were <a href="https://www.polarview.aq/antarctic">available every couple of days</a>, and we overlaid maps of planned glider tracks onto those images so we could steer the gliders around any ice in their way. The trouble was, even the newest images we received were already a day old, and the ice had already moved.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281839/original/file-20190628-94708-1yfhkyg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On this chart of the South Shetland Islands, one intended glider path is marked in straight gray lines. Circled in red in the middle is the iceberg the researchers called ‘Yacu.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Smaller icebergs were usually avoidable, but around three weeks into the deployment, “Yacu” appeared on the scene. Inspired by a <a href="http://www.salem-news.com/articles/august162010/monster-amazon-ta.php">mythological South American snake</a> that eats everything in its way, that was the nickname we gave a 12.5-mile-wide iceberg from the Weddell Sea that drifted right into the path of one of the gliders. Yacu stuck around for the rest of the deployment, every few days spawning smaller (but still huge) icebergs that posed a constant and unpredictable threat to gliders already at the mercy of currents, tides and wind.</p>
<p>If a glider gets trapped under an obstacle and senses that it’s been underwater for too long, it drops an emergency weight to rocket itself to the surface for an immediate recovery. Once a glider drops its weight, it can’t dive anymore. So if it is trapped under ice, it’s likely to stay trapped under ice. And one way to know if a glider is trapped is that it stops calling in, because it can connect to satellites only when it’s at the surface.</p>
<h2>15 hours: No call</h2>
<p>And then…</p>
<p>Ding ding! Ding ding! My laptop screams at me after 16 long hours: The glider is at the surface.</p>
<p>It is well past 9 p.m., but every member of our five-person team has been glued to a computer since early afternoon, and we collectively sigh with relief. We now think the glider probably surfaced after the first eight hours, failed to connect to the satellite and resumed diving, which can occasionally happen. The reason for the gap is unimportant compared to our elation. A couple of weeks later, we successfully recovered both gliders on schedule and completed our first autonomous Antarctic field season. </p>
<p>One key finding is that we can, in fact, replace a vessel-based fishery assessment with a glider-based one in less than a year. With gliders, we can get krill biomass estimates comparable to those we would expect from a ship. That means we can use gliders to continue to provide critical data for managing the krill fishery.</p>
<p>This is a profound accomplishment for us and for NOAA, and it also has far-reaching promise for the future of fisheries research globally. The cost of science keeps going up, and autonomous instruments offer an affordable way to collect critical data for effectively managing ocean resources and conserving fragile marine ecosystems worldwide. </p>
<p>Our gliders are like toddlers in one final way: They’re advanced technology, yet they’re still in their infancy. Their ongoing usefulness to understand our changing planet in real time will depend on new sensors and instruments yet to be developed. What we accomplished is only the the tip of Yacu compared to what the future of autonomous oceanographic research holds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Walsh is employed and funded by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any views or opinions expressed herein, are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or the Department of Commerce.</span></em></p>Sending autonomous vehicles to the Southern Ocean can be fraught with anxiety, especially if one of them doesn’t make radio contact when it’s supposed to.Jennifer Walsh, Research Biologist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104152019-01-25T11:52:12Z2019-01-25T11:52:12ZUniversity scientists feel the pain of the government shutdown, too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255472/original/file-20190124-196235-lnw4qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal and university employees normally work side by side on many big science projects.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ITAE</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I am very fortunate. My work involves research on topics of interest and importance (OK maybe I’m biased) related to the climate and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-warm-blob-in-the-pacific-and-what-can-it-tell-us-about-our-future-climate-40140">oceanography of the North Pacific</a>, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest.</p>
<p>My primary office is at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, in Seattle, Washington, in a lovely setting on the shore of Lake Washington. My coworkers are an interesting bunch of folks doing a variety of work ranging from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14577">chemical oceanography of deep-sea volcanoes</a> to the causes and effects of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0323.1">declining sea ice in the Arctic</a>. This research involves the design and fabrication of innovative instrumentation, with most of this activity carried out in the laboratories and test benches on site.</p>
<p>It’s usually a bustling place. But these days, it’s been distressingly quiet.</p>
<p>The reason, of course, is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/us-government-shutdown-2018-48781">partial shutdown of the federal government</a>, which has resulted in the furlough of “non-essential” employees of NOAA, a branch of the Department of Commerce.</p>
<p>I’m actually an employee of the University of Washington, so in principle, I should not be affected by the shutdown. But that’s far from the case, and my situation is by no means isolated.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A UW research scientist works with two NOAA scientists on an instrument before heading out on a cruise to Mexico’s northern coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2016/05/10/uw-part-of-noaa-led-cruise-to-study-west-coast-ocean-acidification/">Simone Alin/NOAA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) at UW has about 115 employees – and 89 of them have a federal facility as their primary place of work. The JISAO contingent at the NOAA lab actually outnumbers the federal employees. And JISAO is just one of <a href="https://ci.noaa.gov">16 cooperative institutes at universities</a> in the U.S. through which academic and NOAA scientists collaborate.</p>
<p>As a principal investigator whose paycheck comes from the university, I’ve been more hampered than crippled by the shutdown. There remains a seemingly infinite amount of work that can be done: papers to read, current projects needing attention, proposals to prepare. Much of this kind of work can be done away from the office. And I must admit that I kind of enjoyed the first few days; if nothing else the phone hardly rings at the temporary office I’m using.</p>
<p>But now I am getting really peeved. I was counting on being able to make headway on a study of past cold-air outbreaks in the Pacific Northwest, and really need to use a web application maintained by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory. Some other research in my pipeline requires climate model data sets hosted by NOAA, but again, no dice.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot of what greets visitors to many NOAA websites during the shutdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://government-shutdown.noaa.gov">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One might suppose that a slowing of the research being conducted in my field is no big deal. But there are ramifications. </p>
<p>Take weather forecasting. Both day-to-day forecasts and seasonal projections rely on complex computer models. These models need care and feeding; there is continual development and improvement carried out by a cadre of federal and nonfederal (academic and contractor) types. All of this is basically on hold. To be sure, forecasts are still being produced by National Weather Service personnel temporarily working for free, but it is a setback. And this kind of pause is happening all over the country, in a variety of disciplines, at research centers that collaborate with federal agencies – when the government isn’t shut down.</p>
<p>The work not being done will have some lasting effects. For example, a research cruise in the Atlantic Ocean scheduled to begin in about a month was going to include instrumentation for measuring various chemical properties including pH. Now it looks like equipment will not be able to be prepped and shipped in time. This will constitute a serious gap in the record.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ongoing monitoring – like this time series of temperatures on the Bering Sea shelf – is necessary to track accurately how environmental conditions are changing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phyllis Stabeno/NOAA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It bears emphasizing that there are a variety of roles filled by JISAO personnel at NOAA, and the extent to which these individuals can roll with the punches associated with the shutdown also varies. </p>
<p>Support scientists employed by the university are in a particularly tough spot. These are the people who carry out the essential tasks of preparing and calibrating equipment, going to sea on research cruises – a duty generally less glamorous than the term suggests – analyzing samples in the lab, and processing and posting the precious data that we go to so much trouble to collect. There is not much glory here, but these folks are committed to what they are doing and take justifiable pride in their work.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workstations at NOAA/PMEL are now empty, even though many of the people who staff them are actually employed by the university.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jed Thompson/JISAO</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the shutdown has dragged on, and PMEL and other federal facilities remain closed, the options for these individuals have become increasingly limited. Those whose work directly involves equipment and instrumentation are especially in a bind. Many have been able to be productive by updating manuals or online training, but are running out of things to do. Those tasked with data processing and management often use specialized software on their desktop computers – this kind of work can’t be done on one’s laptop at the local Starbucks.</p>
<p>JISAO and federal employees work alongside one another, and the distinctions are usually blurred. In many cases, these folks have similar duties and tenures, and it’s not much more than a matter of chance whether one is a federal or nonfederal employee.</p>
<p>But now that distinction is important, because different rules are in play for the federal and nonfederal employees. Federal employees on furlough will be receiving back pay. This does not apply to JISAO employees, and for that matter, all their counterparts across the country associated with the different agencies being directly affected by the impasse.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At a certain point during the shutdown, people run out of work to do.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Washington</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If JISAO employees cannot carry out meaningful work benefiting the grant projects they’re working under, they must either find a project to which they can contribute (which is difficult to say the least), take vacation time, or worst of all in most cases, go on leave without pay.</p>
<p>Some individuals have already been forced to use leave or go without pay, with poor prospects for reimbursement, and I fear that their ranks will swell. JISAO is doing what it can on behalf of its employees, as are the other NOAA cooperative institutes, especially toward minimizing the “nuclear option” of forced leave without pay. Given the requirements accompanying university employees working on federal grants, that is proving to be no cinch.</p>
<p>Here’s a fervent plea for an agreement to be reached somehow so that we can get back to our regular work. I am chomping at the bit, and I expect that I speak for a lot of people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Bond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lots of academic scientists collaborate with federal employees and resources on their research projects. And at the moment they can’t. A climatologist explains the bind they’re in.Nicholas Bond, Washington State Climatologist and Associate Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1036662018-10-22T10:42:06Z2018-10-22T10:42:06ZDoes climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239836/original/file-20181008-72113-h0ksyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flooding due to climate change may make coastal homes less valuable.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Severe-Weather-NJ/2ee7e0acafb5418f82eb1614dd9eff87/31/0">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of two powerful hurricanes in the U.S. this fall, the scientific evidence <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/global-warming-limit-degrees-ipcc-climate-change">that climate change will raise the risk of severe weather events</a> continues to grow.</p>
<p>In some coastal areas such as Hawaii and Florida, roughly <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/climate-change-underwater-homes-12890/">one-tenth of all homes</a> are expected to be underwater if sea levels rise by six feet. <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/climate-change-underwater-homes-12890/">Zillow estimates</a> that the value of homes at risk of being underwater is US$882 billion. </p>
<p>However, not everyone in the general public seems to agree about the future effects of climate change: In a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/206030/global-warming-concern-three-decade-high.aspx">Gallup survey from last year</a>, 42 percent of Americans agreed that global warming will pose a serious threat to their way of life, while a hefty 57 percent disagreed. </p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3240200">Our recent research</a> suggests that beliefs about the effects of projected climate change may impact real estate prices decades before the projected damages are expected to occur.</p>
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<p>The valuation of a real estate asset depends on many parameters. The asset’s distance from the coast endows it with both scenic coastal views and inevitable exposure to coastal flooding. </p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3240200">Our study</a>, published online on Sept. 11, explored how residential real estate prices are impacted by beliefs about climate change. Using a novel set of data, we were able to uncover a relationship between differences in beliefs about the occurrence and the effects of climate change – that is, the change in the long-term likelihood of adverse weather events – and the real estate valuation of the homes exposed to those risks. </p>
<p>We used a comprehensive data set on coastal home transaction prices in the U.S. that maps individual homes to future inundation projections, employing proprietary data from Zillow and scientific forecast data on sea levels from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We matched this to survey data on <a href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/">U.S. population beliefs about climate change</a> from the Yale Program on Climate Change.</p>
<p>We discovered that homes projected to be underwater sell for more in counties with more climate change deniers, relative to believers. In other words, houses projected to be underwater in “believer” neighborhoods tend to sell at a discount compared to houses in “denier” neighborhoods. One standard deviation increase in the fraction of believers leads to a 7 percent difference in the price of a home projected to be underwater. </p>
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<p>With data like this, it’s important to figure out whether the results could have been influenced by other factors. What if beliefs about climate change are not correlated with other determinants of housing prices? For that reason, we controlled for a variety of house characteristics, including age, distance from the coast, lot size, number of bedrooms and parking, as well as regional characteristics such as average income, elevation and short-term flood risk. </p>
<p>Controlling for the distance from the coast is particularly important. All else being equal, most people prefer to live near the beach and will pay a premium to do so. That means houses more vulnerable to coastal flooding are more likely to have higher valuations due to their proximity to the coast. That can suggest a spurious relationship between homes being projected to be underwater and sales prices. But our analysis indicates there is a clear correlation.</p>
<p>Our study shows that disagreement about the occurrence and consequences of projected natural disasters may give rise to a valuation gap in U.S. real estate, decades before these disasters occur. This finding does not speak to whether climate change deniers or believers are wrong. But they cannot both be right. Whether their disagreement reflects expectations about climate risk or mitigation policies – such as coastal walls to prevent flooding – remains an open question.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103666/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lorenzo Garlappi receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Markus Baldauf receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Constantine Yannelis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Coastal real estate prices appear to be taking a hit, but mostly in neighborhoods with more climate change believers.Constantine Yannelis, Assistant Professor of Finance, University of ChicagoLorenzo Garlappi, Professor of Finance, University of British ColumbiaMarkus Baldauf, Assistant Professor of Finance, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/835992017-09-08T13:39:54Z2017-09-08T13:39:54ZAre catastrophic disasters striking more often?<p>No sooner had Hurricane Harvey’s record rains receded from Houston and neighboring cities than the <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/5/16254872/hurricane-irma-2017-caribbean-florida-keys-puerto-rico-wind-speed-record">residents of Florida began bracing</a> for a wallop from an even more powerful storm. And hurricane season hasn’t even peaked yet. </p>
<p>This begs the question: Is the number of major natural disasters striking the United States actually increasing, or does the media’s natural tendency to overhype conflict only make it seem so? </p>
<p>The federal government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration actually maintains a website that can help answer this question. <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions">Its list of billion-dollar disasters</a> goes back to 1980 and <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.pdf">records the date, location, number of deaths and total cost</a> of each one. </p>
<p>As an economist, I take a different approach from how a climate or environmental scientist might answer the question. Major disasters can wreak tremendous damage, such as destroying wild habitats, rerouting major rivers and killing innocent people. However, assigning specific values to these kinds of damages is difficult.</p>
<p>Assessing the direct economic damage of a disaster is comparatively simpler. Insurance companies and government agencies receive damage and loss claims for specific amounts. These figures are then adjusted to account for the uninsured to produce a total. </p>
<p>In my own analysis, I will start with these figures but make an additional adjustment which I believe more accurately answers whether catastrophic disasters are indeed occurring at a greater frequency.</p>
<h2>How the government tracks disasters</h2>
<p>The government has gone to great efforts to make <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/billions/docs/smith-and-katz-2013.pdf">sure its disaster data are reliable</a> by combining data from government agencies like FEMA, the USDA and private insurance claims.</p>
<p>And it doesn’t just track the hurricanes making headlines right now, but <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/billions/docs/lott-and-ross-2003.pdf">all kinds of large disasters</a>, from winter storms and heat waves to droughts and floods. The data also include winters when subfreezing temperatures destroy billions of dollars of crops and kill large numbers of livestock.</p>
<p>The government ensures the <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/billions/docs/smith-and-matthews-2015.pdf">costs are measured accurately</a>. The total cost of each event includes both losses covered and not covered by insurance. The losses include damage to buildings, roads and infrastructure, as well as items destroyed within buildings when a major disaster strikes. The figures also include some amounts lost by businesses because they were temporarily forced to shut down.</p>
<p>The figures, however, do not assign any value to lives lost. Even if a storm kills hundreds, no adjustment is made for these deaths.</p>
<p>Finally, the figures are adjusted for inflation. This is very important because US$1 billion in 1980 is actually equivalent to $3.15 billion today after adjusting for price changes. <a href="https://theconversation.com/latest-star-wars-film-may-be-biggest-movie-of-all-time-just-not-at-the-box-office-52406">Hollywood movies consistently break box office records</a> because the industry does not adjust ticket sales for inflation. Without an adjustment, disasters would consistently look more expensive over time and, like Hollywood films, seem to always shatter records for damage – even when they don’t.</p>
<h2>What the data show</h2>
<p>Since 1980 there have been 212 disasters, which NOAA calculates resulted in over <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/">$1.2 trillion in damage</a>.</p>
<p>My analysis of the NOAA data shows that the <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/time-series">number of billion-dollar disasters</a> has indeed been increasing over time. A typical year in the 1980s experienced on average 2.7 such disasters in the U.S. In the 1990s and 2000s, that average had climbed to 4.6 and 5.4 a year, respectively. </p>
<p>Since then, the frequency of costly disasters has soared. In this decade so far, each year has seen an average of 10.5 disasters. The scale of this increase amounts to one additional billion-dollar disaster every four years. </p>
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<h2>Do the numbers present a true picture?</h2>
<p>Even with the inflation adjustment, a key reason we have more costly disasters is simply that the economy is much bigger today than it was in the 1980s. </p>
<p>When the economy was smaller, <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NormalizedHurricane2008.pdf">disasters caused less economic damage</a>. There were fewer homes, factories and office buildings to destroy, so it was harder for a natural disaster to cause a billion dollars of damage. </p>
<p>Since 1980, the <a href="https://bea.gov/national/index.htm">U.S. economy has more than doubled</a>. The economy grew from $6.5 trillion back then to $17 trillion as measured by inflation-adjusted GDP. To account for this, the NOAA data should be adjusted for the <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">economy’s size</a>. In other words, a storm happening today will cause more damage than an identical one occurring decades earlier simply because there is more to destroy.</p>
<p>A simple adjustment that incorporates economic growth divides each year’s inflation-adjusted GDP figure by the 1980 value and multiplies the answer by $1 billion. This results in a figure, in each year, that equates to the minimum amount of damage needed to be economically equivalent to $1 billion of destruction in 1980. </p>
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<p>For example, the resulting figure for 2010 is $2.3 billion. Or put another way, a storm that caused $1 billion in damage in 1980 would have caused about $2.3 billion worth in 2010.</p>
<p>While this isn’t a perfect adjustment and assumes all parts of the economy grow at roughly the same rate, it creates a more accurate measure of meaningfully billion-dollar disasters than the official data. </p>
<p>Excluding storms under the adjusted cutoff and redoing the statistical analysis shows we gain an additional billion-dollar disaster about every 25 years, not every four years. So the frequency of these natural disasters is increasing, but not nearly as fast as the raw NOAA data suggest.</p>
<h2>Losing the lottery</h2>
<p>In general, people tend to <a href="http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/george.wu/research/papers/burns%20chiu%20wu%202010%20overweighting%20of%20small%20probabilities.pdf">overestimate the impact</a> of <a href="http://www.hec.edu/Knowledge/Strategy-Management/Micro-economics/Decision-making-Why-do-we-underestimate-rare-events">small-probability events</a>. For example, many people must think they have a pretty decent chance at <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mavis-wanczyk-powerball-winner-massachusetts-woman-claims-758-million-jackpot/">winning giant lotteries</a>; otherwise, no one would buy tickets.</p>
<p>Disasters are just like lotteries except people lose when their number comes up. While millions of people have been affected by Harvey, hundreds of millions more were not in the hurricane’s path. However, the news and dramatic live coverage make all of us worry that we are in danger.</p>
<p>Even still, given the number of costly disasters is rising – if slowly – policymakers and politicians should think about strengthening building codes and making other changes to ensure we’re better prepared and less at risk. If commercial and residential buildings are designed to handle a higher chance of being inundated by water, wind and fire the cost of cleaning up and time needed to recover from natural disasters will fall.</p>
<p>And what can you do? Be prepared. You never know when disaster might strike. <a href="https://emergency.cdc.gov/preparedness/plan/index.asp">Make a plan</a>. Have spare water, flashlights, food and your important papers accessible in one place in case it is time to flee.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83599/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Saturated media coverage of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma can make it seem like disasters happen all the time. Is the frequency of billion-dollar disasters really rising?Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/635112016-08-04T05:17:22Z2016-08-04T05:17:22ZState of the Climate 2015: global warming and El Niño sent records tumbling<p>The <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams">State of the Climate in 2015 report</a>, led by the <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/">US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a>, was released yesterday. Unfortunately, it paints a grim picture of the world’s climate last year.</p>
<p>For a second consecutive year the globe experienced its hottest year on record, beating the 2014 record by more than 0.1°C. From May 2015 onwards, each month set a temperature record for that particular month, a pattern that has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/20/june-2016-14th-consecutive-month-of-record-breaking-heat-says-us-agencies">yet to end</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133036/original/image-20160804-12230-1mxe66f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In all three global temperature series, 2015 stands out as the hottest year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UK Met Office</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The record-breaking temperature anomaly in 2015 (around 1°C higher, on average, than what would be expected in a world without humans) was in large part due to human-caused climate change. A small fraction of the heat was because of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/bom-were-calling-it-the-2015-el-nino-is-here-41598">major El Niño event</a>, which developed midway through 2015 and ran into this year.</p>
<p>During <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">El Niño events</a> we see warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A resulting transfer of heat from the ocean into the lower atmosphere causes a temporary warming effect. In La Niña seasons, the opposite happens.</p>
<p>Overall, about <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/2015-global-temp-record">0.05-0.1°C of the global temperature anomaly for 2015 was due to El Niño</a>. The bulk of the remainder was due to climate change. So even if we hadn’t had an El Niño last year, 2015 would still have been one of the hottest years on record. </p>
<p>Of the 16 hottest years ever recorded, <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-record-shattering-global-warm-temperatures-in-2015/">15 have happened this century</a>.</p>
<h2>Extreme events around the world…</h2>
<p>At regional scales we also saw many extreme events last year. The downward trend in Arctic sea ice continued, with the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/2015-arctic-sea-ice-maximum-annual-extent-is-lowest-on-record">lowest annual maximum extent on record</a>. Alaska’s winter was <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/%E2%80%9Cwinter%E2%80%9D-alaska">almost non-existent</a>, with many Arctic mammals and fish being forced to change their behaviour and shift their habitats.</p>
<p>Many extreme heatwaves occurred in 2015. These included a deadly hot spell in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Indian_heat_wave">India</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pakistan_heat_wave">Pakistan</a> and severe heat events in Europe and North America. Combined, these events <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2016/01/05/the-human-and-economic-cost-of-natural-disasters-in-2015">killed thousands of people</a>.</p>
<p>In Europe, various summer heat records were set in <a href="https://weather.com/forecast/news/europe-heat-wave-record-highs-june-july-2015">Spain, the Netherlands, France and Britain, while Germany posted an all-time record temperature</a>.</p>
<p>Seasonal-scale extreme heat occurred over many parts of the globe. There were many more warm days and nights than normal over much of Europe in summer, and in Russia and North America in spring.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133037/original/image-20160804-12230-11codkv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme events occurred around the world in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA NCEI</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Across the world there were more tropical cyclones than normal, mainly due to increased cyclone activity across the Pacific basin, and many significant flood events. On the other hand, large areas suffered severe drought (14% of the land surface, up from 8% in 2014). </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/ethiopia-hit-worst-drought-decades-151112154747151.html">Ethiopian drought</a> devastated crops and affected millions of people. Parts of South America experienced the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/earth/11242908/Brazils-worst-drought-in-80-years-from-the-air-in-pictures.html">worst drought in 80 years</a>. The <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-grim-consequences-of-california-drought-accelerating-in-2015-20151001-story.html">western US drought</a> continued, despite the fact that El Niño events usually bring this region some reprieve.</p>
<h2>…including in Australia</h2>
<p>In Australia, probably the most significant climate extreme we had was the record heat in October.</p>
<p>The country experienced its biggest monthly temperature anomaly on record – almost 3°C above the historical national average. The frequency of very warm days was also well above average. This unusual early heat triggered bushfires across the southeast. </p>
<p>Even given the El Niño event (which normally warms up Australia in spring and summer), the maximum temperature records that were set were, for example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-been-australias-hottest-ever-october-and-thats-no-coincidence-49941">at least six times more likely in Melbourne</a> than they would have been in the absence of human-caused climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133039/original/image-20160804-12201-j3b3oy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia experienced its hottest October on record in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For 2015 as a whole, Australia experienced its fifth-warmest year on record. Nine out of 12 months were warmer than average.</p>
<h2>A continuation of climate change trends</h2>
<p>Besides the record heat, the world saw many other unwanted records tumble in 2015, providing ever more extensive evidence for the effect that humans are having on the climate. Greenhouse gas concentrations (the primary cause of our changing climate) rose to record high levels, with carbon dioxide concentrations <a href="https://theconversation.com/february-carbon-dioxide-levels-average-400ppm-for-first-time-38417">passing the 400 parts per million mark</a> at many sites. The year’s margin of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations was also the largest on record.</p>
<p>Our influence on the climate can also be seen through <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams">record high globally-averaged sea levels</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams">highest globally-averaged sea surface and upper ocean temperatures on record</a>.</p>
<p>The trend towards more heat extremes and fewer cold ones also continued. In fact, 2015 had about <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2015-state-climate-extremely-warm-days">three times as many very warm days as very cold ones globally</a> compared with the historical average.</p>
<p>A plethora of records was broken, with a human fingerprint being clear in many cases.</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>We already know that 2016 is <a href="https://theconversation.com/2016-is-likely-to-be-the-worlds-hottest-year-heres-why-59378">very likely to overtake 2015 globally</a> as the hottest year on record. As the El Niño peaked earlier this year we saw many extreme events around the world and in Australia. This included the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-bleaching-taskforce-more-than-1-000-km-of-the-great-barrier-reef-has-bleached-57282">devastating coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef</a>, which would have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-would-be-almost-impossible-without-climate-change-58408">virtually impossible without human-caused climate change</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, in many ways, the climate of 2015 is not likely to stand out as especially unusual in a few years’ time. More record hot years are likely, with associated extreme weather events, as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to climb. </p>
<p>Only with rapid and substantial cuts to these emissions will it be possible to limit global warming to well below 2°C, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">key aim of the Paris climate agreement</a>, and reduce the likelihood of yet more climate records tumbling.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>2015 was the world’s hottest year on record. The US State of the Climate report has rounded up the litany of temperature and other records that were broken all over the globe.Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneSarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/384172015-03-08T19:03:05Z2015-03-08T19:03:05ZFebruary carbon dioxide levels average 400ppm for first time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74031/original/image-20150306-3281-74qz7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C73%2C3049%2C2221&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For the first time, the February monthly average carbon dioxide levels at the Mauna Loa Observatory have passed 400ppm.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA/Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The US government’s greenhouse gas monitoring site at Mauna Loa in Hawaii <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html">has confirmed</a> that its average recorded carbon dioxide levels for February topped 400 parts per million (ppm) – the first time that this has been seen in a northern winter month.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/as-carbon-dioxide-hits-a-new-high-theres-still-no-planet-b-14074">Back in May 2013</a>, the Hawaiian site recorded daily levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 400 ppm for the first time. Last year the average hit 400 ppm in April, and remained above this level for three months. </p>
<p>So this year, reaching 400 ppm as part of the seasonal ebb and flow of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as early as February is another milestone.</p>
<p>It is likely Mauna Loa’s yearly average will reach 400 ppm this year, as CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations climb upwards. </p>
<p>The unit of measurement for carbon dioxide is parts per million (molar) of dry air, or ppm for short. For every million molecules of the gas mixture that makes up dry air, about 400 of them presently are carbon dioxide molecules.</p>
<p>Mauna Loa is one of three key sites identified by the World Meteorological Organisation for long-term carbon dioxide measurements, with a record that started in 1956. The other northern hemisphere site is Alert in Nunavut, Canada (which has been recording since 1975). The third site is in the Southern Hemisphere, at the Cape Grim Air Baseline Air Pollution Monitoring Station in north-west Tasmania, Australia (see below).</p>
<h2>It’s all uphill from here</h2>
<p>As the graph below shows, CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations have climbed relentlessly over the past 200 years. Air and ice measurements allow us to trace the dramatic rise in carbon dioxide levels from about 280 ppm before the start of the industrial era around the year 1800, to a global average of 397 ppm in 2014. That’s an increase of 42%, largely due to human activities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73913/original/image-20150305-7469-ngznbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ice measurements show the rise of CO2 since 1800.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations also oscillate throughout the year, reaching a peak in mid-spring in both hemispheres. This is due to the terrestrial vegetation waxing and waning along with the seasons, and is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere due to a greater land mass. </p>
<p>During the productive growing phase from mid-spring through summer, vegetation removes considerable CO<sub>2</sub> from the atmosphere, while it returns CO<sub>2</sub> to the air during cooler months due to ongoing respiration and vegetation decomposition. This phenomenon creates the seasonal cycle in the atmosphere’s CO<sub>2</sub> concentration, which can be seen in the graph below showing the last five years of Mauna Loa CO<sub>2</sub> data.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73914/original/image-20150305-7453-o50r9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monthly mean Mauna Loa CO2 concentration for the last five years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What we are seeing at present in the Mauna Loa February measurements are observations fluctuating around 400 ppm. These will return to sub-400 ppm levels later this year (August) when the above-mentioned absorption by vegetation – what’s known as the “annual carbon dioxide drawdown” – will affect Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels. </p>
<p>However, by November 2015, Mauna Loa monthly average CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations will remain above 400 ppm for the foreseeable future.</p>
<h2>Down south</h2>
<p>In the Southern Hemisphere, average annual levels of carbon dioxide are measured at the Cape Grim Air Baseline Air Pollution Monitoring Station in north-west Tasmania. This is the third key site identified by the World Meteorological Organisation for long-term carbon dioxide measurements, with a record starting in 1976.</p>
<p>Cape Grim is a key international monitoring facility, operated by the Bureau of Meteorology, and is where much of CSIRO’s international global atmospheric research is centred. Measurements have been made here since 1976. </p>
<p>CSIRO has also measured Southern Hemispheric carbon dioxide over the past 2000 years in air trapped in Antarctic surface ice - called firn - and deeper ice cores, shown in the figure above.</p>
<p>While the northern hemisphere heads towards peak carbon dioxide levels in mid-spring, Cape Grim is heading towards the late-summer/autumn trough in concentrations so are currently recording daily values of around 396 ppm. We expect Cape Grim to reach the 400 ppm milestone for the first time during 2016, most likely around the middle of the year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73866/original/image-20150304-15252-1sddge1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cape Grim will likely record CO2 levels permanently above 400 ppm in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are southern hemisphere carbon dioxide levels lower?</h2>
<p>Carbon dioxide is currently rising at just over 2 ppm each year.</p>
<p>The annual mean carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa is expected to exceed 400 ppm in 2015, with Cape Grim expected to exceed 400 ppm in mid-2016 and stay above 400 ppm thereafter, although if the current growth rate of 2 ppm per year accelerates then Cape Grim may reach this milestone earlier.</p>
<p>Cape Grim baseline CO<sub>2</sub> measurements in Feb 2015 averaged almost 396 ppm for the month.</p>
<p>There is a clear difference between levels of carbon dioxide measured in the Southern and Northern hemispheres, because industrial and other population-based sources of carbon dioxide emissions are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere.</p>
<h2>From measurement to action</h2>
<p>Carbon dioxide is one of the primary greenhouse gases. Others include methane, nitrous oxide and synthetic gases, predominantly refrigerants.
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising mainly because of the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.</p>
<p>Increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to climate change. The amount of warming produced by a given rise in greenhouse gas concentrations depends on feedback processes in the climate system, such as the water vapour response. This both amplifies, by water vapour, and dampens, by cloud formation, the temperature increase due to these long-lived greenhouse gases.</p>
<p>Over half of the carbon dioxide input to the atmosphere is absorbed by natural sinks in the land plants and oceans.</p>
<p>Land and ocean carbon dioxide sinks respectively removed 30% and 24% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the period 2000-2008. This constitutes a massive natural ecosystem service helping to mitigate humanity’s emissions.</p>
<p>To have a 50:50 chance of keeping human-induced average global warming below 2C, it will be necessary to stop almost all carbon dioxide emissions before cumulative emissions reach one trillion tonnes of carbon.</p>
<p>The world has already emitted more than half of this quota since the industrial revolution. At current accelerating growth rates for the combustion of fossil fuels, the rest will be emitted by the middle of this century.</p>
<p>Cape Grim measurements of carbon dioxide are publicly available at <a href="http://www.csiro.au/greenhouse-gases/">http://www.csiro.au/greenhouse-gases/</a>.</p>
<p><em>Paul Krummel will be on hand for an Author Q&A session between 3pm and 4pm tomorrow (March 10). Post your questions about atmospheric carbon dioxide monitoring in the comments section below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Krummel receives funding from MIT, NASA, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Department of the Environment, & Refrigerant Reclaim Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Fraser receives funding from Refrigerant Reclaim Australia.</span></em></p>We have hit a new milestone in carbon dioxide levels: the average for February topped 400ppm. It’s the first time this has happened in the northern winter, when levels are typically lower than in summer.Paul Krummel, Research Group Leader, CSIROPaul Fraser, Honorary Fellow, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.