tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/nz-green-party-94192/articlesNZ Green Party – The Conversation2023-11-16T01:09:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176482023-11-16T01:09:04Z2023-11-16T01:09:04ZLost voices: ethnic diversity in the New Zealand parliament will decline after the 2023 election<p>Since the dawn of the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system in 1996, New Zealand’s parliament has <a href="https://socialreport.msd.govt.nz/civil-and-political-rights/representation-of-ethnic-groups-in-government.html">become increasingly diverse</a>. The 2020 election saw a <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/25-years-of-mmp/a-more-diverse-parliament/">record number of female MPs</a> enter parliament and a <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/06-11-2023/a-national-act-nz-first-government-would-mean-a-whole-lot-of-men-in-charge-again">world record proportion</a> of MPs from the rainbow community. </p>
<p>Ethnic diversity also increased in 2020, with New Zealand having elected “one of the most diverse parliaments in the world” according to a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/16/asia/new-zealand-parliament-diverse-intl-hnk-dst/index.html">CNN report</a> at the time.</p>
<p>But the 2023 election saw a significant swing to the right, with a host of new MPs entering parliament. This inevitably changed the demographics. </p>
<p>Overall, New Zealand’s parliamentary representation has become less ethnically diverse, with a few exceptions, suggesting some parties need to look at the composition of their candidate lists and memberships. </p>
<h2>Changes since 2020</h2>
<p>The 2023 election result created a more complex picture of ethnic diversity in the country’s political representation. </p>
<p>The increase in the proportion of Māori MPs since the first MMP election has continued. Nearly 27% of MPs in parliament after the 2023 election identify has Māori, up from 22.5% in 2020, and more than double the proportion in 1996 (13%).</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="GL45C" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GL45C/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Prior to 1996, none of New Zealand’s MPs were of Asian decent, and only one (<a href="https://www.parliament.nz/mi/mps-and-electorates/former-members-of-parliament/field-phillip/">Taito Phillip Field</a>) came from the Pasifika community. In 2020, 11 Pasifika MPs were elected, accounting for 9% of all MPs. But after the 2023 election, this has dropped to 6%.</p>
<p>The proportion of MPs of Asian ethnicity has only marginally increased, from 6.5% in 2020 to 6.6% in 2023. It’s important to note that “Asian” includes people whose heritage is from the Indian subcontinent as well as East Asia. </p>
<p>In 2020, the first MPs with Middle Eastern, Latin American or African heritage were elected to parliament, making up 1.7% of MPs. In 2023, this increased to 2.5%.</p>
<h2>Parliament and society</h2>
<p>Parties across the political spectrum have different commitments to ethnic diversity. And some parties have do not have any MPs from certain ethnic groups.</p>
<p>For example, the centre-left (Labour, Greens and te Pāti Māori) has a higher proportion of Māori MPs. NZ First and te Pati Māori have no Asian MPs, and only Labour and the Greens have Pasifika MPs in their caucuses. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-green-party-is-filling-the-void-on-the-left-as-voters-grow-frustrated-with-labours-centrist-shift-213061">NZ's Green Party is 'filling the void on the left' as voters grow frustrated with Labour's centrist shift</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Along with having no Pasifika MPs, the National Party has the lowest proportion of Māori MPs of any political party, with just 10% of its caucus identifying as Māori. </p>
<p>Although the party has some MPs of Asian ethnicity in its caucus (6%), for the second term in a row it has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/indonz/501638/national-lacks-indian-representation-in-parliament-for-second-consecutive-term">no MPs of Indian heritage</a>. The Indian community comprises 6.1% of the general population, making it one of the largest Asian groups in New Zealand.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="vMnsx" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vMnsx/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Compared with the overall population, the next parliament also presents a varied picture. The proportion of Māori MPs, for instance, is notably higher than New Zealand’s Māori population. In 2023, 17.4% of the population and nearly 27% of elected MPs identify as Māori.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="dGnue" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dGnue/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>However, the proportion of Pasifika and Asian MPs elected in 2023 falls below their corresponding share of the population. The Pasifika population sits around 9%, but only 5.6% of MPs with Pacific descent were elected. </p>
<p>Similarly, Asian MPs will comprise only 6.6% of parliament, whereas the Asian population now stands at 18% of the total. </p>
<p>Despite this, New Zealand’s ethnic representation compares well with other industrialised democracies. Around 44% of New Zealand’s population and 40% of MPs belong to an ethnic minority group.</p>
<p>Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom have a greater disparity between the proportion of ethnic minority MPs and the proportion of their ethnic minority population. </p>
<p>In Canada, 15.7% of its lower house MPs and 26.3% of its population come from ethnic minority groups, whereas in Australia 6.6% of lower house MPs and 23% of the population belong to ethnic minorities. </p>
<p>The UK performs marginally better, with 10% of MPs in the House of Commons and 16% of the population coming from ethnic minority backgrounds.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="QFqR0" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QFqR0/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>Minority groups in the executive</h2>
<p>Some minority groups are better represented in parliament than others, but it remains to be seen whether the same can be said about ethnic representation in the cabinet.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="ohgWX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ohgWX/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>During the 2017-2020 government, 29% of all ministerial appointments were Māori, 13% were Pasifika and only <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/priyanca-radhakrishnan-becomes-new-zealands-first-ever-indian-origin-minister-6913522/">3% Asian</a>. In the 2020-2023 government, 40% of executive office holders were Māori, 14% Pasifika and 7% Asian.</p>
<p>While Māori and Pasifika MPs held high-level executive positions between 2017 and 2023, including Winston Peters and Carmel Sepuloni as deputy prime minister, the same could not be said for Asian MPs. The <a href="https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-06/ministerial-list-21-june-2023.pdf">highest-ranked</a> MP of Asian ethnicity was health minister Ayesha Verrall, who reached number seven in Chris Hipkins’ cabinet.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/500297/lack-of-pasifika-mps-in-govt-a-concern-for-community-reps">concern has already been expressed</a> about the lack of Pasifika representation in the new government, with none of the coalition parties having Pasifika MPs in their ranks.</p>
<h2>Representation and democracy</h2>
<p>As New Zealand continues to grow more ethnically diverse, the question of how this is reflected in political institutions becomes more crucial. </p>
<p>The health of a democratic system like New Zealand’s can be measured by the extent to which minorities participate in its democracy. Minority representation in a democracy is also a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227604270_Minority_Representation_Empowerment_and_Participation">good indicator</a> of other democratic values, such as inclusiveness and legitimacy of the political system. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-new-zealands-most-diverse-ever-cabinet-improve-representation-of-women-and-minorities-in-general-149273">Can New Zealand's most diverse ever cabinet improve representation of women and minorities in general?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Political parties have already been instrumental in improving the representation of women in politics. Both <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/women-together/labour-womens-council">Labour</a> and <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/greens-will-ensure-gender-balance-cabinet">the Greens</a> have policies to promote gender equity in parliament. </p>
<p>Similarly, parties can take a more active role and adopt strategies to enhance ethnic minority representation in politics, particularly from under-represented groups such as New Zealand’s Pasifika and Asian communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Tan is affiliated with the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs (IIPA), Christchurch. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neel Rajesh Vanvari is affiliated with the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs (IIPA) based in Christchurch, New Zealand. </span></em></p>While Māori have seen a steady increase in representation in parliament since the beginning of MMP, other ethnic minorities have experienced uneven growth. The new parliament will see a step back.Alexander Tan, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, University of CanterburyNeel Vanvari, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154302023-10-14T23:30:03Z2023-10-14T23:30:03ZFrom a red tide in 2020 to blood on the floor in 2023 – NZ slams the door on Labour<p>Close, but so far no “<a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/baubles-come-back-to-bite/T5AYOXKSVQLFAGDZDU7PVQLEPU/">baubles of office</a>” for Winston Peters and NZ First. “We have done the impossible,” he told supporters on election night. But as the old saying goes, politics is the art of the possible. </p>
<p>For the past two weeks, as the polls showed NZ First climbing towards and then past the 5% threshold for securing seats in parliament, all the talk was about how Peters – the great survivor of New Zealand politics – might exercise the balance of power.</p>
<p>In the event, many things now hang in the balance. New Zealanders will have to wait until the variables and peculiarities of the <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP electoral system</a> shake down once special votes are included in the final results.</p>
<p>But there’s no denying the laurels on the night went to Christopher Luxon’s National Party. It outperformed recent polling to secure 38.9% of the vote and 50 seats in the new parliament. All that, plus an <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby-world-cup-2023/300989415/rugby-world-cup-all-blacks-triumph-over-ireland-in-epic-quarterfinal-in-paris">All Blacks victory</a> the next morning too.</p>
<p>The ACT Party will reflect on a night which, if not quite as good as earlier polling might have delivered, still resulted in 8.9% of the vote and 11 seats.</p>
<p>For Chris Hipkins and the Labour Party, however, it was a terrible evening. Labour’s 26.9% of the vote is barely half what it achieved just three years ago, and its second worst performance since 1969. </p>
<p>Labour lost a slew of electorates – including seats such as Rongotai, Wellington Central and Mt Roskill – which have rarely not been red. The road back for Labour will be a long one, and it begins with a much-diminished caucus. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-934" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/934/5f2c068e69b52f8c105aa32c59e76b939a34152b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>End of an era</h2>
<p>Ironies abound in this election. Under MMP, the party vote determines the overall outcome, but the votes cast in constituencies have shaped the size of the next parliament. </p>
<p>The unfortunate death of an ACT candidate means NZ First’s leader may yet be kingmaker. Parties hostile to the very existence of Māori seats may have to work together because of what happened in those electorates.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-national-on-the-night-as-new-zealand-turns-right-2023-election-results-at-a-glance-214560">It’s National on the night as New Zealand turns right: 2023 election results at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But beyond those minutiae, something else happened last night. Three years ago, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party won the largest share of the popular vote since 1951, largely on the basis of the trust voters placed in her political leadership and her government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>Last night, a New Zealand that no longer wishes to be reminded of those dark times closed the door on the government that led the country through them.</p>
<h2>Not so ‘minor’ parties</h2>
<p>Behind the raw numbers lies another story. The combined two-party vote for National and Labour was just 65.9%, the lowest since 2002. It may soon be time to retire the “minor” shorthand used to refer to the other parties now embedded in the political landscape.</p>
<p>The Greens have real cause for celebration, adding four seats to the ten they secured in 2020. The party held the key urban seat of Auckland Central and also picked up Wellington Central, comfortably winning the party vote in that electorate too.</p>
<p>Te Pāti Māori’s performance in doubling the number of its parliamentary seats to four was striking: reward for confident, assertive leadership from Rawiri Waititi (the incumbent for the seat of Waiariki) and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (the new MP for Te Tai Hauāuru). </p>
<p>At just 21 years of age, new Waikato-Tainui MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke – who toppled foreign affairs minister Nania Mahuta – becomes the youngest representative ever elected in Aotearoa New Zealand.</p>
<p>NZ First, on the other hand, will be feeling frustrated. Yes, it is back in parliament with eight seats, after three years on the sidelines. But Winston Peters is not (yet) in the kingmaker position most major polls were predicting just days ago.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="1EJ2P" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1EJ2P/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>The maths of MMP</h2>
<p>Te Pāti Māori’s strong showing means the 54th Parliament will probably have 122 MPs, including the additional seat that will be added following the Port Waikato by-election to be held on November 25.</p>
<p>Crucially, this means at least 62 seats will be needed to form a government. National and ACT currently control 61. Assuming National holds Port Waikato, between them they will be able to cobble together a bare majority. </p>
<p>However, if either National or ACT lose seats when the official results are announced on November 3, Port Waikato would become irrelevant: if he hasn’t already done so by then, Christopher Luxon would have to pick up the phone and speak with Winston Peters.</p>
<p>And it’s worth pointing out National has routinely dropped seats once special votes have been counted at each of the past six elections: two in 2017 and 2020, and one in every election between 2005 and 2014. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-polls-understated-the-right-but-national-act-may-struggle-for-a-final-majority-215528">NZ Election 2023: polls understated the right, but National-ACT may struggle for a final majority</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Forming the next government</h2>
<p>It is possible, therefore, that the business of stitching together the next government will not be entirely straightforward.</p>
<p>That process is unusually permissive under New Zealand’s election rules. Parliament must meet within six weeks of the return of the writs (November 9), but there is no formal requirement that a government be in place at that point.</p>
<p>Moreover, the shape, substance and duration of the process is for the political parties to determine. The Governor-General steers clear of proceedings, and some of the arrangements that apply elsewhere – the appointment of a “formateur” to oversee the process, for instance, or the requirement that the largest party is included in the government – do not apply in New Zealand. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-pebble-in-the-shoe-to-future-power-broker-the-rise-and-rise-of-te-pati-maori-212089">From 'pebble in the shoe' to future power broker – the rise and rise of te Pāti Māori</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It’s all a <a href="http://briefingpapers.co.nz/how-mmp-works-freestyle-bargaining/">little freestyle</a>, which explains why the country has had such different government formation processes and outcomes since the first MMP election in 1996.</p>
<p>If National and ACT maintain the number of seats they won on election night, the only barriers they face to the formation of a government are internal ones. </p>
<p>Negotiations will likely have been concluded by December 22, the day the Governor-General will deliver the Speech from the Throne containing the incoming government’s policy priorities.</p>
<p>But any slippage and all bets will be off. NZ First’s support will be required to form a government. And if Winston Peter’s chequered history with the National Party is any guide, negotiations could quickly turn difficult. But for now, NZ First – and New Zealand itself – must wait.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The final outcome of the general election may not be known for two weeks. But one thing is clear: the country has resoundingly rejected the government that led it through the pandemic.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155282023-10-14T21:00:41Z2023-10-14T21:00:41ZNZ Election 2023: polls understated the right, but National-ACT may struggle for a final majority<p>While the tide well and truly went out on Labour on election night, there are still several factors complicating the formation of a National and ACT coalition government. Special votes are yet to be counted, with the official final result still three weeks away.</p>
<p>In past elections special votes have <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-final-polls-suggest-nz-first-likely-kingmaker-as-the-left-makes-late-gains-214462">boosted the left</a> parties. If that is the case this year, we won’t know by how much until November 3. Consequently, the preliminary results may be slightly skewed against the left. </p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023_preliminary">these figures</a>, National won 50 seats (up 17 since the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_New_Zealand_general_election">2020 election</a>), Labour 34 (down 31), the Greens 14 (up four), ACT 11 (up one), NZ First eight (returning to parliament), and Te Pāti Māori/the Māori party four (up two). There are 121 seats overall (up one from the last parliament).</p>
<p>While National and ACT currently have 61 combined seats, enough for a right majority, if past patterns hold they will lose one or two seats when the special votes are counted – and thus their majority.</p>
<p><iframe id="1EJ2P" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1EJ2P/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Several variables in play</h2>
<p>There are two other complications. First, there will be a November 25 by-election in Port Waikato after the death last Monday of an ACT candidate. The winner of that by-election will be added as an additional seat. National is almost certain to win the by-election.</p>
<p>Second, Te Pāti Māori won four of the seven Māori-roll electorates and Labour one. In the other two, <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-status.html">Labour is leading</a> by under 500 votes. If Te Pāti Māori wins both these seats after special votes are counted, it would win six single-member seats, three above its proportional entitlement of three.</p>
<p>The new parliament already has one overhang seat due to Te Pāti Māori’s electorate success. If it wins six, the new parliament will have 124 members (including the Port Waikato by-election winner). That would mean 63 seats would be needed for a majority.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-national-on-the-night-as-new-zealand-turns-right-2023-election-results-at-a-glance-214560">It’s National on the night as New Zealand turns right: 2023 election results at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>National, though, would be assisted if Te Pāti Māori’s party vote increases from the provisional 2.6% to around 3% after special votes are counted, but it wins no more single-member seats. That would increase Te Pāti Māori’s seat entitlement to four and eliminate the overhang. </p>
<p>Then, if the right drops only one seat after special votes and National wins the by-election, National and ACT would have a majority.</p>
<p>While National performed better than anticipated given the late trend to the left in the polls, National and ACT are unlikely to have a combined majority once all votes are counted, and National will likely depend on NZ First in some way.</p>
<h2>Polls understated the right</h2>
<p>Party vote shares on the night were 39.0% National (up 13.4%), 26.9% Labour (down 23.1%), 10.8% Greens (up 2.9%), 9.0% ACT (up 1.4%), 6.5% NZ First (up 3.9%) and 2.6% Te Pāti Māori (up 1.4%).</p>
<p>For the purposes of this analysis, the right coalition is defined as National and ACT, and the left as Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. NZ First has sided with both left and right in the past, and supported the left from 2017 to 2020, so it is not counted with either left or right.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-from-one-way-polls-to-threats-of-coalition-chaos-its-been-a-campaign-of-two-halves-213650">NZ Election 2023: from one-way polls to threats of coalition ‘chaos’, it’s been a campaign of two halves</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On the preliminary results, the right coalition won this election by 7.7 percentage points, enough for a majority despite NZ First’s 6.5%. In 2020, left parties defeated the right by a combined 25.9 points. But it’s likely the right’s lead will drop on special votes.</p>
<p>The two poll graphs below include a late <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9362-nz-national-voting-intention-september-october-2023">poll release from Morgan</a> conducted between September 4 and October 8. I have used September 22 as the midpoint. This poll gave the left parties a two-point lead over the right, a reversal of an 8.5-point right lead in Morgan’s August poll.</p>
<p>The current result is comparable to the polling until late September and early October when there was a late movement to the left.</p>
<p>Overall, it looks as if the polls <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election">overstated the Greens</a> and understated National. The polls that came closest to the provisional result were the 1News-Verian poll and the Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union. </p>
<p>In 2020, <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-election-year-nz-voters-should-beware-of-reading-too-much-into-the-political-polls-198508">polls greatly understated</a> the left; this time the right was understated. </p>
<p>It’s possible media coverage of the possibility of NZ First being the kingmaker drove voters back to National in the final days. By 48% to 26%, respondents in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/11/guardian-essential-new-zealand-poll-labour-picks-up-steam-days-out-from-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">Guardian Essential poll</a> thought NZ First holding the balance of power would be bad for New Zealand rather than good. For now, any such concerns are on hold.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With final results awaiting the inclusion of special votes, the shape of New Zealand’s next parliament hangs in the balance. Here are the variables in play.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145602023-10-14T11:06:43Z2023-10-14T11:06:43ZIt’s National on the night as New Zealand turns right: 2023 election results at a glance<p>From winning a single-party majority in 2020, Labour’s vote has virtually halved in 2023. Pre-election polls appear to have under-estimated support for National, which on the provisional results can form a government with ACT and won’t need NZ First, despite those same polls pointing to a three-way split.</p>
<p>While the Greens and Te Pāti Māori both saw big gains, taking crucial electorate seats, it has been at the expense of Labour. Special votes are yet to be counted, and Te Pāti Māori winning so many electorate seats will cause an “overhang”, increasing the size of parliament and requiring a larger majority to govern. </p>
<p>There will also be a by-election in the Port Waikato electorate on November 25, which National is expected to win. So the picture may change between now and November 3 when the official result is revealed. But on tonight’s count, the left bloc is out of power and the right is back. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-934" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/934/5f2c068e69b52f8c105aa32c59e76b939a34152b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>Big shift in the Māori electorates</h2>
<p>Te Pāti Māori has performed better than expected in the Māori electorates – taking down some titans of the Labour Party and winning four of the seven seats. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="This map shows the boundaries of Māori electorates" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553764/original/file-20231014-17-v2jj61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553764/original/file-20231014-17-v2jj61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553764/original/file-20231014-17-v2jj61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553764/original/file-20231014-17-v2jj61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553764/original/file-20231014-17-v2jj61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553764/original/file-20231014-17-v2jj61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553764/original/file-20231014-17-v2jj61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Māori electorate boundaries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The party vote remained at 2.5% – consistent with 2020.</p>
<p>One of the biggest upsets was 21-year-old Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke’s win over Labour stalwart Nanaia Mahuta in the Hauraki-Waikato electorate. Mahuta has represented the electorate since 2008 and has been in parliament since 1996. </p>
<p>This was a must-win race for Mahuta, the current foreign affairs minister, after she announced <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132366309/nanaia-mahuta-wont-stand-on-labour-list-goes-all-in-on-hauraki-waikato-seat#:%7E:text=Foreign%20Minister%20Nanaia%20Mahuta%20won,stand%20on%20the%20party%20list.">she would not be running</a> on the Labour party list. </p>
<p>Labour won all seven Māori seats in 2017 and six in 2020.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="1EJ2P" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1EJ2P/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>Advance voting</h2>
<p>In 2017, 1.24 million votes were cast before election day, more than the previous two elections combined.</p>
<p>In 2020, this rose to 1.97 million people – an extremely high early vote figure attributable to the <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/record-numbers-vote-early-in-2020-new-zealand-election-almost-2-million/XHBAMERHAXPH4MX5DLDPH3TMMU/">impact of the COVID-19 pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>This year, more than 1.3 million New Zealanders cast advance votes before election day – higher than 2017 but significantly lower than 2020. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="SbX7c" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SbX7c/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>The comeback kid</h2>
<p>After a dismal showing at the 2020 election, NZ First’s Winston Peters has yet again shown himself to be the comeback kid of New Zealand politics. Peters and his party have provisionally gained nearly 6.5% of the vote, giving them eight seats in parliament. </p>
<p>On the current numbers, the National Party will not need NZ First to help form the government. But the result is still a massive reversal of fortune for Peters, who failed to meet the 5% threshold or win an electorate seat in 2020. </p>
<h2>The heart of Wellington goes Green</h2>
<p>Urban electorates in Wellington have resoundingly shifted left, with wins for the Green Party’s Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central and Julie Anne Genter in Rangotai. Chlöe Swarbrick has retained her seat in Auckland Central. </p>
<p>The Wellington electorates had previously been Labour strongholds. But the decision by Grant Robertson to compete as a list-only MP opened Wellington Central to Paul, currently a city councillor. </p>
<p>Genter takes the seat from outgoing Labour MP Paul Eagle. </p>
<p>Both Wellington electorates have also seen sizeable chunks of the party vote – 30% in Rongotai and almost 36% in Wellington Central – go to the Greens. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="0EgpY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0EgpY/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
New Zealand has swung decisively back to the right at the 2023 general election. With official results pending, it seems National and ACT can still form a government without the help of NZ First.Veronika Meduna, Science, Health + Environment New Zealand Editor, The ConversationFinlay Macdonald, New Zealand Editor, The ConversationDebrin Foxcroft, Deputy New Zealand EditorMatt Garrow, Editorial Web DeveloperLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144622023-10-11T22:35:27Z2023-10-11T22:35:27ZNZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains<p>After political polls between March and August showed a <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-combined-poll-trends-now-show-a-clear-rightward-shift-since-june-213536">clear trend towards the right</a>, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling closely.</p>
<p>The emergence of NZ First as potential kingmaker has seen warnings, particularly from the National Party, of an indecisive result and even the possible need for a <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/08/national-warns-of-second-election-if-nz-first-talks-fail/">second election</a> if coalition negotiations broke down. </p>
<p>We’ll only have a clearer picture once <a href="https://vote.nz/2023-general-election/about/2023-general-election/key-dates/">polling booths close</a> at 7pm (5pm AEDT) on Saturday, when all ordinary votes cast at early voting centres or on election day will begin to be counted. </p>
<p>There are also “<a href="https://vote.nz/2023-general-election/about/2023-general-election/facts-about-new-zealand-elections/">special votes</a>”, usually cast by voters outside their home electorate (similar to absent votes in Australia). In the past, these have benefited parties on the left, which can take another one or two seats over the preliminary results.</p>
<p>If past practice is a guide, however, there will be no updates to the published results after election night until the official results (which include special votes) are released on November 3. </p>
<p>If NZ First is just above or just below the 5% threshold on election night, we’ll have to wait three weeks to know if it has made it into parliament – and what that means for the balance of power.</p>
<h2>Left and NZ First gain in final polls</h2>
<p>For the purposes of this analysis, the right coalition is defined as National and ACT, and the left as Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori/the Māori party. NZ First has sided with both left and right in the past, and supported the left from 2017 to 2020, so it is not counted with either left or right.</p>
<p>Although Te Pāti Māori is well under the 5% threshold normally required to enter parliament, it is expected to win single-member seats on the <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-an-electoral-roll/what-is-the-maori-electoral-option/">Māori electoral roll</a>. In fact, the party could benefit from an “overhang” (see below).</p>
<p>Since my <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-latest-poll-trends-show-the-left-regaining-some-ground-and-nz-first-as-possible-kingmaker-214460">previous analysis</a> two weeks ago, there have been two <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#Party_vote">1News-Verian polls</a>, a Newshub-Reid Research poll, a Guardian-Essential poll, a Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union, and a Talbot Mills poll.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-from-one-way-polls-to-threats-of-coalition-chaos-its-been-a-campaign-of-two-halves-213650">NZ Election 2023: from one-way polls to threats of coalition ‘chaos’, it’s been a campaign of two halves</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Other than the Talbot Mills poll (which appeared to have been a leftward outlier last time), there has been a clear trend of a fall in the right’s lead over the left. Essential and Reid Research now have the left just ahead.</p>
<p>But with NZ First between 6% and 8% in all recent polls – above the 5% threshold – neither right nor left are likely to have a majority, and so NZ First will be the kingmaker.</p>
<p>Two graphs illustrate these poll trends. The first, as before, shows all polls conducted since March. As the right made gains in July and August, the trends still suggest it is gaining.</p>
<p>The second graph only covers polls conducted since late August, showing a clear trend to the left in all except the Talbot Mills poll.</p>
<p>Fieldwork for the Verian and Reid Research polls ended Tuesday, four days from the election. Voting intentions can still change in these final days.</p>
<p>In international elections, there have sometimes been large poll errors. Where they have occurred, the right is often understated – such as at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_May_2023_Greek_legislative_election">Greek election</a> in May. But at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election">2020 New Zealand election</a>, the left was understated. The left parties in 2023 will hope the results are more favourable than polls imply.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-read-the-political-polls-10-things-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-the-nz-election-208738">How to read the political polls: 10 things you need to know ahead of the NZ election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Te Pāti Māori could benefit from an ‘overhang’</h2>
<p>In New Zealand’s mixed member proportional (<a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>) system, an “overhang” occurs when a party wins more single-member seats than its total seat entitlement would be on the party vote alone. If this occurs, that party is allowed to keep its extra seats and the size of parliament is increased.</p>
<p>There are seven Māori-roll single-member seats. At the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Zealand_general_election#Results">2020 election</a>, Labour won six and Te Pāti Māori one. But Labour’s vote has crashed since 2020, so it’s plausible Te Pāti Māori could win more single-member seats.</p>
<p>In 2020 the party won 1.2% of the party vote, but its one electorate victory entitled it to two of parliament’s 120 total seats. But if it picked up five single-member electorates and less than 2% of the party vote, for example, it would result in a three-seat overhang: parliament would be expanded to 123 seats, with Te Pāti Māori holding five.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-election-christopher-luxons-real-test-could-come-from-his-right-not-the-left-209393">After the election, Christopher Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Candidate’s death will help National</h2>
<p>To add to the uncertainty, there will be a November 25 by-election in Port Waikato after the death on Monday of an ACT candidate. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/10/what-act-candidates-death-could-mean-for-the-election-result/">electoral rules</a>, only the party vote in that seat will be counted on election night. The by-election will determine the electorate candidate, meaning parliament will be expanded to 121 seats (ignoring any other overhangs).</p>
<p>Saturday’s election will only allocate seats in proportion to the 120 total seats that will be elected at that time. The winner of the Port Waikato by-election will take the additional 121st seat.</p>
<p>Although the 2020 election was a Labour landslide, National held <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Waikato_(New_Zealand_electorate)">Port Waikato</a>, so it will almost certainly win the by-election, giving the party one seat more than it should be entitled to on the party vote. But current polls indicate this one seat won’t be enough for a National-ACT majority.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-makes-a-good-political-leader-and-how-can-we-tell-before-voting-214351">What makes a good political leader – and how can we tell before voting?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With two days of the campaign left, what had earlier seemed like a relatively predictable election has narrowed considerably, with several variables potentially influencing the outcome.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136502023-10-10T17:55:03Z2023-10-10T17:55:03ZNZ Election 2023: from one-way polls to threats of coalition ‘chaos’, it’s been a campaign of two halves<p>After weeks of policy debate, disputed fiscal plans, sloganeering and no small amount of <a href="https://theconversation.com/campaign-trail-threats-and-abuse-reinforce-the-need-to-protect-nzs-women-politicians-before-they-quit-for-good-214828">rancour</a>, the election campaign has come down to a single, uninspiring contest of negatives: use your vote to avoid uncertainty, “chaos” and even a second election.</p>
<p>On one level, this is a reaction from both National and Labour to the <a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/nz-first-needed-national-and-act-govern-poll">rise of NZ First</a> and the potential for difficult coalition arrangements on the right or (less likely) the left. But at another level it feels quite in keeping with the generally dour tone of the campaign so far.</p>
<p>Perhaps this partly reflects a kind of exhaustion in the electorate after a difficult few years, including the economic after-effects of a global pandemic. But much of it has to do with the nature of the party political leadership on offer.</p>
<p>The former British Conservative politician Rory Stewart <a href="https://shows.acast.com/these-times/episodes/rory-stewart-an-interview-with-the-man-who-still-wants-to-be">recently argued</a> that politics is a vocation. What people expect from its practitioners are commitment, principled behaviour, new and good ideas – vision even. </p>
<p>Whether you agreed with it or not (and plenty did in 2020, including many who <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/where-did-nationals-votes-go">voted for Labour</a> for the first and possibly last time), former prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s ability to articulate a vision of a better world set the emotional climate at the past two elections. </p>
<p>Neither of the men vying for the top job this time have had anything like the same galvanising impact on voters. </p>
<p>Any vision on offer from the major parties has been more of the bread-and-butter variety (to borrow a phrase): tax “relief”, cost-of-living adjustments, dental care and welfare-to-work incentives.</p>
<p>If voters have been looking for a bigger picture, they will likely have been drawn to other parties: the Greens, ACT, Te Pāti Māori and even The Opportunities Party (TOP). And with NZ First now polling as <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/498749/peters-returns-as-kingmaker-under-newshub-reid-research-poll">potential kingmaker</a>, Labour and National find themselves painted into their own corners, both promising “stability” but not a lot more.</p>
<h2>The old normal</h2>
<p>In certain respects, the 2023 campaign has been a reversion to type – the reassertion of patterns that become visible if we look back further than the 2020 or 2017 elections.</p>
<p>For a start, we are going to see the end of single-party majority government. In 2020, charisma and COVID <a href="https://theconversation.com/her-cabinet-appointed-jacinda-ardern-now-leads-one-of-the-most-powerful-governments-nz-has-seen-148984">propelled Ardern and Labour</a> past the 50% mark for the first time since the adoption of the mixed member proportional (<a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>) system in 1996 (even if they never really behaved like a ruling party).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/romantic-heroes-or-one-of-us-how-we-judge-political-leaders-is-rarely-objective-or-rational-214943">Romantic heroes or ‘one of us’ – how we judge political leaders is rarely objective or rational</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Such governments were all New Zealand knew under the previous first-past-the-post electoral system. Unlike Ardern’s Labour, of course, none of those governments won a majority of the popular vote after 1951. So a single-party majority administration is even harder to achieve under MMP.</p>
<p>That will be increasingly the case in future, given the <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/">slow decline</a> over recent decades in the numbers voting for either Labour or National. </p>
<p>Across the three elections held during the 1970s, the combined vote share captured by the two major parties was 85.7%. By the 1990s, that had tumbled to just over 71%. And although it rose to 75.7% across the 2010s, on <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-nz-first-in-powerful-position-as-act-support-crumbles-labour-s-catastrophe-continues.html">current polling</a> National and Labour look set to win just two-thirds of all party votes between them.</p>
<p>This tectonic process is opening up the electoral landscapes to the left of Labour and right of National. It is evident in both the composition of parliament (which is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/08/diversity-dilemma-worlds-most-inclusive-parliament-still-faces-battle-for-change-new-zealand">more diverse</a> than it once was) and in the process of <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496990/coalitions-confidence-and-supply-what-you-need-to-know">forming multi-party governments</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-nzs-farming-heartland-groundswell-act-and-the-changing-face-of-rural-politics-213979">The battle for NZ’s farming heartland: Groundswell, ACT and the changing face of rural politics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the longer term, however, there are questions about where this trend away from the political centre (at least as it is represented by Labour and National) is heading.</p>
<p>New Zealand hasn’t reached the levels of political <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/revealed-one-in-three-europeans-now-votes-anti-establishment">polarisation and radicalisation</a> apparent in other parts of the world. But last year’s <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/23-02-2022/divided-splintered-what-the-parliament-occupation-says-about-nz-now">occupation of parliament grounds</a>, and some of the <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brian-tamaki-disruption-campaign-church-and-political-leader-wants-to-break-parliament-apart/G5HVITZ6KBDMHFAODPZDWHQ3R4/">fringe movements</a> and nastier episodes during this year’s campaign, suggest we could see a further fracturing of what has, historically, been a relatively homogeneous populace.</p>
<h2>Turn off or turn out?</h2>
<p>A lot of what happens after Saturday’s election will depend on how many people choose to vote. </p>
<p>Turnout tends to spike when an electoral contest is tight, and drop away if voters think the outcome is done and dusted. For a while, the polling gap between left (Greens, Labour, Te Pāti Māori) and an ascendant right (ACT and National) suggested a low turnout might be on the cards.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-election-christopher-luxons-real-test-could-come-from-his-right-not-the-left-209393">After the election, Christopher Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The NZ First wildcard may alter things. And with recent polls showing 10% of voters undecided, there may be more uncertainty than was assumed just a couple of weeks ago. But either way, there has been a historical trend towards lower turnouts.</p>
<p>Between 2011 and 2017, voter numbers climbed from 69.6% of those eligible to vote (the lowest since the late 1800s) to 79.8% (still well down on the 92.3% achieved in 1938). But turnout dipped to 77.3% of age-eligible voters in 2020, and could continue to drop this year.</p>
<p>The risk is more pronounced for Labour, which has been polling at lows not seen since before Ardern became leader in 2017. But low turnout could also hurt the National Party if enough voters fail to heed Christopher Luxon’s call to give it a clear mandate.</p>
<p>That will see Luxon and National having to negotiate with both ACT and NZ First from a weaker position, dealing with NZ First’s mix of populism and economic nationalism, and ACT holding out the possibility of <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-labour-warns-of-us-style-government-shutdowns-if-national-nz-first-enter-confidence-only-deal-with-act.html">supporting National on confidence only</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-pebble-in-the-shoe-to-future-power-broker-the-rise-and-rise-of-te-pati-maori-212089">From 'pebble in the shoe' to future power broker – the rise and rise of te Pāti Māori</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The formation – much less the day-to-day management – of a three-party government would pose a challenge for a National leader with only three years of parliamentary experience under his belt.</p>
<p>Yet this is what MMP was intended to do: to blunt the ability of a single political party (generally elected with a minority of the vote) to impose its policy agenda, and to reflect – in the composition of both parliament and the government – our increasingly fluid voting behaviour and changing demography. </p>
<p>Elections are how governments are formed, and what governments do (and don’t do) has material consequences for people’s lives. So <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/atea/19-09-2023/lets-make-voting-sexy-again">this election matters</a> no less than any other, and it isn’t over until the polls close on Saturday night.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The final days of the campaign have seen both major parties warn of instability if the other wins. But behind the jockeying for power, other forces are shaping the future of New Zealand politics.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144602023-09-27T22:30:05Z2023-09-27T22:30:05ZNZ Election 2023: latest poll trends show the left regaining some ground and NZ First as possible kingmaker<p>Yesterday’s 1News-Verian poll, and the Newshub-Reid Research poll reported earlier in the week, both show flattening trend lines – but they are still moving to the right of the political spectrum.</p>
<p>For the purposes of this analysis, the National and ACT parties are counted as the right coalition; Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori/the Māori party are the left coalition. I am not counting NZ First towards either coalition, as they have supported both left and right in the past.</p>
<p>Since my <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-with-a-month-to-go-polls-point-to-a-right-wing-coalition-government-213353">previous analysis</a> two weeks ago, there have been <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election">three more polls released</a>. The two weekly 1News-Verian polls have given the right coalition two 7.1-point leads, after an 8.4-point lead in mid-September. </p>
<p>The most recent Verian poll was taken between September 23 and 26 from a sample of 1,002 people. The Reid Research poll was taken just before that, between September 17 and 23. More dramatically, it saw the right dip to a 5-point lead, down from 8.8 points in the previous poll in early September.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1706898100499960271"}"></div></p>
<h2>NZ First on the rise</h2>
<p>The graph below shows the right coalition’s lead or deficit against the left coalition in all polls conducted since March. While the left regained some ground in the latest polls, the trend to the right remains evident.</p>
<p>Significantly, NZ First has moved over the 5% threshold required to enter parliament without winning a single-member seat, with the latest Verian poll giving the party 6% and Reid Research 5.2%. </p>
<p>The Māori Party is expected to win single-member Māori-roll seats, giving it parliamentary representation with a vote share well under 5%.</p>
<p>If NZ First makes the 5% threshold, it may be in the “kingmaker” role. Reid Research gives all parties’ support to one decimal place, so the 5.2% for NZ First is greater than the right’s 5-point lead over the left in that poll.</p>
<p>Verian only gives decimal figures for parties below 5%. The right’s lead of 7.1 points implies it could do without NZ First’s 6%. </p>
<p>However, the pollster’s <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/673932153/1News-Verian-Poll-Report-Short-Version-September-23-26">seat totals</a> use the decimals. Using the decimal figures to project seats in parliament, the right would win 60 of the 120 seats, the left 52, and New Zealand First eight. In this case, the right would be one seat short of a majority.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-green-party-is-filling-the-void-on-the-left-as-voters-grow-frustrated-with-labours-centrist-shift-213061">NZ's Green Party is 'filling the void on the left' as voters grow frustrated with Labour's centrist shift</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Shift to the right</h2>
<p>Although New Zealand First supported the left from 2017 to 2020, it is unlikely to do so again. So it’s only a question of whether National and ACT can govern alone, or will need NZ First as well.</p>
<p>If there has been movement against the right recently, a plausible reason is voter anxiety over ACT having a larger voice in government. In the past, ACT has been a minnow party, with National dominating the conservative vote.</p>
<p>This election, however, has seen more voters signalling support for parties other than Labour or National. At the <a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2020/2020-general-election-official-results/">2020 election</a>, ACT won 7.6% of the party vote, up from just 0.5% in 2017, and is now mostly polling in the double digits. So is the Green Party, well up from 7.9% at the previous election.</p>
<p>Labour, meanwhile, has crashed from 50% in 2020 to the high 20s in recent polls, with National up from 25.6% to the high 30s. If National and ACT are able to form a two-party coalition government, ACT could drive New Zealand to the right.</p>
<p>What role NZ First and its leader Winston Peters might play remains (not for the first time) the great imponderable as the October 14 election draws near.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest political opinion polls confirm the rightward trend since mid-year. But with NZ First on the rise, the shape of the next government remains unpredictable.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130612023-09-26T17:58:10Z2023-09-26T17:58:10ZNZ’s Green Party is ‘filling the void on the left’ as voters grow frustrated with Labour’s centrist shift<p>The Green Party has run a strong campaign. With a 14.2% share in the <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/national-would-still-need-nz-first-on-current-polling">latest Newshub-Reid Research poll</a>, up by 1.9 percentage points since the previous poll, that is more than half the Labour Party’s 26.5%. </p>
<p>The gain seems to have come from voters unimpressed by Labour’s centrist shift under leader Chris Hipkins, which leaves the Greens to fill a wider void on the left. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1706373398475972821"}"></div></p>
<p>The party can claim policy success in several areas – environment and climate, housing quality, family and sexual violence prevention. But has it achieved the social and economic changes required for the climate resilient society it campaigns for? The answer has to be a categorical no.</p>
<p>One reason is that the party continues to battle internal tensions between idealism and pragmatism. </p>
<p>The Greens have been a continuous presence in parliament since the start of the MMP era in 1996. But the party’s policies appear too radical for some members, and not radical enough for those who want to see fewer compromises on issues such as climate action and social justice. </p>
<h2>Distinctive party rules</h2>
<p>These internal tensions spilled over last year when James Shaw initially failed to get the required 75% support to be reelected as co-leader before being <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/474500/james-shaw-re-elected-as-green-party-co-leader-by-delegates">reinstated</a>. </p>
<p>Changes to the party constitution in May last year scrapped the requirement for a male co-leader. Instead, there is now a requirement to have a Māori co-leader of any gender, along with a woman co-leader. </p>
<p>The Greens’ 2023 <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_unveils_its_list_for_the_2023_election">party list</a> reflects both new talent and greater ethnic diversity than in the past. </p>
<p>Far more than any other political party (save Te Pāti Māori), the distinctive leadership structure and decision-making rules allow the Greens to give effect to their commitments to te Tiriti o Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi, gender equity and grassroots democracy.</p>
<p>Their processes may look messy to those looking in from the outside, but it works. They keep leaders accountable and ensure they stay connected, with a driven and committed membership.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-pebble-in-the-shoe-to-future-power-broker-the-rise-and-rise-of-te-pati-maori-212089">From 'pebble in the shoe' to future power broker – the rise and rise of te Pāti Māori</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Policy success</h2>
<p>If getting the policy architecture in place to facilitate implementation is one measure of political success, then the Greens have achieved credible action on many fronts. </p>
<p>Getting the 2019 <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2019/0061/latest/LMS183736.html">Zero Carbon Act</a> across the line with cross-party support, with the subsequent setting up of the <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/">Climate Change Commission</a>, was certainly a success. So were the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/12/new-zealand-bans-all-new-offshore-oil-exploration-as-part-of-carbon-neutral-future">ban on new oil and gas exploration</a> and the establishment of <a href="https://www.araake.co.nz/">Ara Ake</a>, the “future energy centre” in New Plymouth. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-nz-was-hard-won-but-it-remains-politically-fragile-203396">The end of offshore oil and gas exploration in NZ was hard won – but it remains politically fragile</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These and many other <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/our_achievements">initiatives</a>, reflect much required movement. But despite ambition, implementation has fallen short.</p>
<p>For some party insiders, the Greens’ climate agenda has been hamstrung by the ministerial responsibilities they have had under a Labour government. As <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/459250/green-party-discontent-members-walk-ex-mps-criticise-leadership">critics pointed out</a> after the 2021 UN climate summit in Glasgow, the climate change ministerial portfolio headed by a Green MP failed to reform the emissions-heavy agribusiness sector, instead focusing on reducing carbon emissions through offshore carbon credits. </p>
<p>Ultimately, the Greens’ policy positions on a range of issues are more radical than the outcomes that have been achieved under the Labour government. </p>
<p>Even many of the gains made by the Greens in forging cross-party consensus on climate action are showing signs of shrivelling away during this election campaign, with a National-ACT coalition promising to <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/132895990/stuff-climate-election-survey-see-how-the-parties-compare">reverse most climate policy measures</a>. </p>
<h2>Ending poverty and tax reform</h2>
<p>Working within the market-led political system has been a disappointment for some party supporters loyal to core Green principles. However, there is no question the Greens have shifted the terms of the debate on poverty in Aotearoa. </p>
<p>Reminiscent of the Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen’s powerful argument that famines were caused not by natural disasters but by the absence of a functioning democracy, the Greens have positioned poverty as a political choice that no country needs to make. </p>
<p>The party’s <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/ending_poverty_together">Ending Poverty Together</a> policy proposes an income guarantee that would ensure everyone, including students, receives at least NZ$385 a week after tax. Its reconfigured tax structure claims to benefit an estimated 95% of all tax payers, a much broader group than National’s proposed tax cuts would affect. </p>
<p>To pay for these changes, the Greens want to introduce a wealth tax of 2.5% a year on assets above $2 million per individual.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1669985943464587264"}"></div></p>
<p>While the details of the Greens’ tax policy would undoubtedly need refining, the potential to eliminate poverty and ensure free dental care for all offers a glimpse of what truly transformational policy can look like. </p>
<p>The reluctance of New Zealand (the only wealthy country without any form of wealth tax) to impose fairer taxes has led to <a href="https://www.inequality.org.nz/understand/">deep inequality</a>, with devastating consequences for the poorest. As social commentator Max Rashbrooke points out in his latest book <a href="https://www.bwb.co.nz/books/too-much-money/">Too Much Money</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The wealthiest tenth own one quarter of the country’s assets, while the poorest half of the country has just 2%. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This situation did not just happen; it is the direct consequence of political decisions. Just as government policies previously kept inequality in check through taxes, regulations and a shared commitment to a well-funded welfare state, policy changes allowed the inequality we see now. And it is policy reform that can remedy it. </p>
<h2>Future direction</h2>
<p>The Green Party’s core voter base appears to be solid, ensuring it will continue its presence in parliament. </p>
<p>At 14.2% in the polls, the party is closing in on its highest ever level of 15%, reached in 2017 in a TVNZ poll. This was in the wake of then co-leader Metiria Turei’s revelations of misleading WINZ as a solo parent, though, and the party only achieved 6.3% in that year’s election.</p>
<p>If current polling holds up and translates into a significantly expanded caucus, it may allow the Greens to more actively pursue their ideals.</p>
<p>Even if they end up on the opposition benches, they can still remain the loudest voices on climate change and social justice. They can get issues on the parliamentary agenda, ask questions of ministers and introduce members’ bills.</p>
<p>They can also effectively shape public debate on unchecked economic growth – the default position of the major parties – and its resulting environmental degradation and social inequality. </p>
<p>The beating heart of the Green Party is their <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/charter">Green Charter</a>, with its four principles of ecological wisdom, social responsibility, appropriate decision making and non-violence. This underpins the moral voice the Greens bring to a wide range of issues.</p>
<p>Currently, both centrist parties are showing signs of moving towards the right – away from social justice and environmental issues, for example – although in varying degrees. This leaves a void on the left for the Greens to fill, while further eroding Labour’s base.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Priya Kurian has received funding from The Deep South National Science Challenge for research on climate adaptation, The Rockefeller Foundation for research on climate justice, and the Royal Society of New Zealand's Marsden Grant.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s Greens have undoubtedly succeeded in some policy areas, including climate and housing quality. But the party continues to battle internal tensions between idealism and pragmatism.Priya Kurian, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133532023-09-14T01:33:07Z2023-09-14T01:33:07ZNZ election 2023: with a month to go, polls point to a right-wing coalition government<p>The New Zealand general election to be held in one month, on October 14, will be the country’s tenth under the mixed member proportional system (<a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>).</p>
<p>Voters have two votes: one for their party of choice, the other for their electorate’s member of parliament. There are 72 single-member seats, including seven seats for electors on the Māori roll.</p>
<p>Parties must win at least 5% of the total vote to gain seats in parliament. The threshold is waived if a party wins one of the electorate seats.</p>
<p>The 48 “list” seats are used to ensure proportionality, so that parties that win many single-member seats win few list seats. It is the party vote that matters most as it determines the number of seats a party is entitled to. </p>
<p>Election for single-member seats is by a <a href="https://www.dia.govt.nz/diawebsite.nsf/wpg_URL/Resource-material-STV-Information-More-about-FPP?OpenDocument">first-past-the-post</a> system. There can be more than 120 MPs (an “overhang”) if a party wins more single-member seats than its total entitlement given its party vote. An overhang last occurred at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_New_Zealand_general_election">2014 election</a>.</p>
<h2>Coalitions and ‘kingmakers’</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election">current polls</a>, National, Labour, ACT and the Greens are well clear of the 5% threshold. The Māori party (also known as Te Pāti Māori) is expected to win Māori-roll single-member seats and will qualify for parliamentary representation even if its party vote is below 5%.</p>
<p>In the past, the populist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_First">New Zealand First</a> party has occasionally been the “kingmaker” and allied with both Labour and National governments. At the 2020 election, its party vote fell below the 5% threshold and it didn’t win any electorate seats, so was wiped out of parliament. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-election-christopher-luxons-real-test-could-come-from-his-right-not-the-left-209393">After the election, Christopher Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Some recent polls have New Zealand First above 5% and it’s unclear whether it will win representation after the election.</p>
<p>In a proportional representation system, we need to account for likely coalitions. The right coalition consists of National and ACT, while the left coalition consists of Labour, the Greens and Māori. </p>
<p>I am not counting New Zealand First towards either coalition as it’s unclear whether they will win representation. But the Labour Party has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496678/instability-and-chaos-labour-rules-out-a-partnership-with-nz-first">ruled out working with New Zealand First</a> in coalition. No other parties are likely to win representation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-read-the-political-polls-10-things-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-the-nz-election-208738">How to read the political polls: 10 things you need to know ahead of the NZ election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Clear trend to the right</h2>
<p>The graph below shows the right coalition’s lead or deficit over the left coalition as estimated by all New Zealand pollsters that have released at least two polls since March.</p>
<p>The election date is shown on the graph. I started this chart in March as it was shortly after Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as Labour leader and prime minister in January.</p>
<p>The graph has poll results and a trend line for every pollster. It is similar to a graph I have been using for <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872">Australian polls</a> on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, but uses the midpoint of polls’ fieldwork periods, not the endpoint. This is because Morgan’s New Zealand polls are taken over a whole month.</p>
<p>The pollster used by Television New Zealand’s 1News changed its name from <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/659466526/July-2023-1-NEWS-Verian-Poll-Report-No-Supplementary-Questions-Version-002#">Kantar Public to Verian</a> this year. I have used “Verian/Kantar” to designate this pollster.</p>
<p>From March to June, polls tended to have the left coalition ahead, but there has been a surge to the right in the past two months. The trend lines for all pollsters now have the right ahead. </p>
<p>The Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union has been the right’s best poll, while Talbot Mills has been the left’s best.</p>
<p>The six most recent polls show an 8.5-point lead for the right in Morgan, a 1.6-point lead in Talbot Mills, a 7.2-point lead in Curia, an 8.8-point lead in Reid Research, a 4.4-point lead in Essential and an 8-point lead in Verian/Kantar. The Talbot Mills poll looks like a left-favouring outlier.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1701839454384640349"}"></div></p>
<h2>Reversal of fortune for Labour</h2>
<p>With the right ahead in recent polls, the only realistic hope for the left would be that New Zealand First made it past the 5% threshold, which could give Labour, the Greens, Māori and New Zealand First enough seats to deny National and ACT a combined majority.</p>
<p>While Labour has ruled out working with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First were in a coalition government for the 2017–2020 term. If New Zealand First were again in a kingmaker role after the election, it’s plausible Labour would change its mind and make Peters an offer.</p>
<p>Essential and Talbot Mills both have New Zealand First above the 5% threshold and don’t have the right coalition ahead by enough to avoid needing it to form a government. </p>
<p>But in the other four most recent polls, the right is ahead by enough to form a government without New Zealand First, even if it makes the threshold.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-labour-national-consensus-on-family-support-means-the-election-wont-change-much-for-nzs-poorest-households-212450">The Labour-National consensus on family support means the election won’t change much for NZ’s poorest households</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Why has there been a recent surge to the right? I believe Hipkins’ honeymoon after he replaced Ardern has worn off. There have been ministerial scandals, including the July 24 resignation of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/24/kiri-allan-resigns-car-crash-new-zealand-justice-minister">Labour MP Kiri Allan</a> as justice minister after being charged with careless driving and refusing to accompany a police officer after a crash.</p>
<p>High inflation and cost-of-living stress will also be a contributor. <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/consumers-price-index-june-2023-quarter/">Inflation was 1.1%</a> in the June quarter, down slightly from 1.2% in March, and well below the peak of 2.2% in September 2022. </p>
<p>A loss for Labour would be a big reversal from its <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Zealand_general_election">landslide victory</a> at the 2020 election, in which the party won a one-party majority with 65 of the 120 seats. This was the first time since the current electoral system replaced first past the post in 1996 that a single party had won a parliamentary majority. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s success at keeping COVID out, as well as <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300137917/election-2020-the-complete-disarray-of-nationals-campaign-that-led-to-electoral-slaughter">leadership turmoil</a> within the National Party, likely contributed to that Labour victory. The 2023 election will not see the same pattern repeated on either the left or right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135362023-09-14T01:31:21Z2023-09-14T01:31:21ZNZ election 2023: combined poll trends now show a clear rightward shift since June<p>With exactly one month until New Zealand’s general election, all major polls are now showing a clear rightward trend since June.</p>
<p>With some recent polls showing New Zealand First on or above the 5% MMP threshold, the only real wildcard at this point is whether the party will be returned to parliament after October 14.</p>
<p>Otherwise, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election">current polls</a> show National, Labour, ACT and the Greens are well clear of the 5% threshold. The Māori Party/Te Pāti Māori is expected to win Māori-roll single-member seats, and will qualify for parliamentary representation even if its party vote is below 5%.</p>
<p>The graph below shows the right coalition’s lead or deficit over the left coalition in all New Zealand pollsters that have released at least two polls since March. The right coalition consists of National and ACT, while the left coalition consists of Labour, the Greens and Māori.</p>
<p>The election date is shown on the graph. I started this chart in March, shortly after Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as Labour leader and prime minister in January.</p>
<p>The graph has poll results and a trend line for every pollster. It is similar to a graph I have been using for <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872">Australian polls</a> on the Indigenous Voice to parliament referendum, but uses the midpoint of polls’ fieldwork periods, not the endpoint. This is because Morgan’s New Zealand polls are taken over a whole month.</p>
<p>(The pollster used by Television New Zealand’s 1News changed its name from <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/659466526/July-2023-1-NEWS-Verian-Poll-Report-No-Supplementary-Questions-Version-002#">Kantar Public to Verian</a> this year. I have used “Verian/Kantar” to designate this pollster.)</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-read-the-political-polls-10-things-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-the-nz-election-208738">How to read the political polls: 10 things you need to know ahead of the NZ election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>From March to June, polls tended to have the left coalition ahead, but there has been a surge to the right in the past two months. The trend lines for all pollsters now have the right ahead. </p>
<p>The Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union has been the right’s best poll, while Talbot Mills has been the left’s best.</p>
<p>The six most recent polls show an 8.5-point lead for the right in Morgan, a 1.6-point lead in Talbot Mills, a 7.2-point lead in Curia, an 8.8-point lead in Reid Research, a 4.4-point lead in Essential and an 8-point lead in Verian/Kantar. </p>
<p>The Talbot Mills poll looks like a left-favouring outlier.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1701839454384640349"}"></div></p>
<h2>The NZ First factor</h2>
<p>With the right ahead in all recent polls, the only realistic hope for the left would have been that New Zealand First made it past the 5% threshold, which could give Labour, the Greens, Māori and New Zealand First enough seats to deny National and ACT a combined majority.</p>
<p>However, Labour’s <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496678/instability-and-chaos-labour-rules-out-a-partnership-with-nz-first">decision</a> to rule out working with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters makes that impossible. Peters has also <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/13/possible-nats-act-nz-first-coalition-would-survive-steven-joyce/">ruled out</a> ever working with Labour again. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-election-christopher-luxons-real-test-could-come-from-his-right-not-the-left-209393">After the election, Christopher Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Essential and Talbot Mills polls have New Zealand First above the 5% threshold and don’t have the right coalition ahead by enough to avoid needing it to form a government. </p>
<p>To complicate things further, ACT leader David Seymour has ruled out working with Peters if ACT were to be given cabinet positions in a National-led coalition.</p>
<p>However, in the other four most recent polls, the right is ahead by enough to form a government without New Zealand First, even if it makes the threshold.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213536/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090392023-07-05T00:32:24Z2023-07-05T00:32:24ZNot all rent control policies are the same – the Green Party proposal deserves an open-minded debate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535676/original/file-20230704-25-96o30c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5428%2C3594&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ink was barely dry on the Green Party’s recently unveiled “<a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/02/green-party-pledges-landlord-register-rent-control-measures/">Pledge to Renters</a>” – which included annual rent increase limits, a rental warrant of fitness and a national register of landlords – before others were consigning it to the policy dustbin.</p>
<p>By Tuesday morning, the prime minister had emphatically <a href="https://www.teaomaori.news/pm-rules-out-greens-rental-cap">ruled out rent controls</a> as part of a potential Labour-Greens coalition after this year’s election: “International experience suggests […] a constraining effect on the number of rentals available,” he said.</p>
<p>The ACT Party housing spokesperson <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/02/greens-renters-policy-attacks-landlords-act/?cb_rec=contentv1_s_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_20_True_0">claimed the policy</a> “attacks landlords”, while the vice-president of the Property Investors Federation <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132464640/landlords-attack-logic-of-greens-proposed-3-cap-on-rent-rises">said</a> it would lead to a “black market” in rental deals. </p>
<p>Labelling the policy “economically illiterate”, National’s housing spokesperson Chris Bishop <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/02/greens-renters-policy-attacks-landlords-act/">said</a>: “Economists don’t agree on much but almost all agree rent controls […] are counterproductive.” </p>
<p>And it is true – social science research, and economics in particular, can be marshalled to argue against rent controls. One <a href="https://econjwatch.org/File+download/238/2009-01-jenkins-reach_concl.pdf">meta-analysis</a> of 60 studies, for example, found “economic research quite consistently and predominantly frowns on rent control”. </p>
<p>These arguments tend to converge around the notion that controls result in the opposite of their commonly stated objectives: reducing supply and lowering rather than increasing housing standards.</p>
<p>But some perspective is needed. Another <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/business/consulting/assets/documents/assessing-the-evidence-on-rent-control-from-an-international-perspective.pdf">international analysis</a> found the “strongly held but highly polarised views” about rent control are “rarely strongly evidence-based”. In fact, there is much more to the debate than many of the partisan arguments suggest.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1676129304521117696"}"></div></p>
<h2>The generation gap</h2>
<p>The research that exists tends to quibble with so-called “first generation” rent controls. These involve freezing rents, akin to the temporary measures put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>First generation rent control was especially popular in Europe and, to some extent, the United States during and shortly after the second world war. Some rent control dwellings from that time live on to this day, but they are rare.</p>
<p>Importantly, these measures involve sustaining rent freezes well below market levels – which is not something entertained by the Greens. </p>
<p>However, because the economic literature tends to focus on first generation rent controls – and because this highly partial focus comes to stand for all rent controls in public discussion – the Greens policy has been implicitly lumped in with only one kind of control.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-housing-market-drives-inequality-why-not-just-tax-houses-like-any-other-income-208003">NZ’s housing market drives inequality – why not just tax houses like any other income?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Research on second and third generation rent controls is less plentiful. But it contains more diversity of disciplinary perspectives – including public policy, sociology, geography and other research fields – and is more equivocal in its findings. </p>
<p>Mainstream economics is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/nz/universitypress/subjects/economics/history-economic-thought-and-methodology/behind-model-constructive-critique-economic-modeling?format=HB&isbn=9781107069664">famously enamoured with formal models</a> based on assumptions that lead to good theory, but which often run into trouble when applied to the complex social and political systems that shape us.</p>
<p>When we begin to incorporate those complexities in our analysis, the world of rent control looks more varied. As the same comparative study that found a lack of evidence-based perspectives put it: “the impact of rent control depends on its form and economic context […] plus crucially the nature of the welfare system in place”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1675342416352780288"}"></div></p>
<h2>Not a blunt instrument</h2>
<p>The Greens’ proposal most closely resembles second generation rent controls. These allow for rent increases, but within specified limits (a maximum 3% annual increase under the Greens’ proposal). And only under certain circumstances (such as making significant improvements to the dwelling) can landlords increase rents beyond those limits. </p>
<p>Third generation rent controls, by comparison, only apply <em>within</em> a single tenancy, whereas second generation controls apply <em>within and between</em> tenancies. So, a landlord cannot opportunistically increase the rent, above the specified limit, before a new tenancy begins. </p>
<p>Rent control need not be a blunt instrument. It can include any number of provisions to overcome or ameliorate anticipated perverse outcomes. </p>
<p>Around the world, there’s a range of locally tailored variations of rent control policies. <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/business/consulting/assets/documents/assessing-the-evidence-on-rent-control-from-an-international-perspective.pdf">Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands</a>, for example, each have different approaches to stabilising rent increases for part of their rental housing stock.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coming-storm-for-new-zealands-future-retirees-still-renting-and-not-enough-savings-to-avoid-poverty-179661">The coming storm for New Zealand’s future retirees: still renting and not enough savings to avoid poverty</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>More informed debate needed</h2>
<p>A big part of the problem with New Zealand’s rent control “debate” is that it misses these kinds of nuance. A better discussion would involve looking at what kind of rent control might work, for what purpose, and with what trade-offs.</p>
<p>This is especially important in the context of the country’s rental affordability problem and wealth distribution disparities underpinned by the current housing system. </p>
<p>As was reported earlier this year, <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/housing-affordability-more-challenging-for-renters-than-homeowners/">Stats NZ figures show</a> renters are experiencing the housing affordability crisis worse than homeowners. In the year to June 2022, one in four renting households were spending more than 40% of their disposable income on housing costs, compared with one in five mortgaged households.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-is-both-a-human-right-and-a-profitable-asset-and-thats-the-problem-172846">Housing is both a human right and a profitable asset, and that's the problem</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Average weekly rents also increased faster than mortgage payments over the past 15 years – by 93%, compared with 48.8%. Given these realities, some kind of policy response is surely logical.</p>
<p>A modest proposal such as the Greens’ policy deserves more than blank rejection. As a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02723638.2021.1958473">recent study</a> of the “mythology” of rent control put it, we ought “to take the trouble to look closely at different kinds of rent control”.</p>
<p>If it is understood as multidimensional, not monolithic, such a policy might at least be seen as one legitimate approach to improving renters’ lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209039/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Baker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the claims of landlords and politicians, there is no economic consensus against rent controls. A more nuanced debate would help, given the scale of New Zealand’s housing affordability problem.Tom Baker, Associate Professor in Human Geography, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071092023-06-06T18:45:06Z2023-06-06T18:45:06ZExtending the term of parliament isn’t a terrible idea – it’s just one NZ has rejected twice already<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530265/original/file-20230606-19-cso4oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5982%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among a host of other recommendations, the <a href="https://electoralreview.govt.nz/">Independent Electoral Review</a> has proposed a referendum on extending the term of parliament to four years (from the current three). I’ll admit from the outset to being torn over the issue – the policy wonk in me says four, the election junkie says three.</p>
<p>But there’s another problem. Even if it is a sound idea, why hold a referendum when two past referendums have already rejected the proposal? Parliament could make the change alone, but MPs would likely face a backlash from the people wanting a referendum.</p>
<p>Those previous polls in 1967 and 1990 were both defeated by more than two-thirds majorities. Without a strong sense of a public desire for change, it’s hard to see a third result being any different. </p>
<p>In fact, one can almost hear the social media arguments against it already: “We have more important things to think about”, “They just want to keep their noses in the trough for longer”. Given current levels of distrust in politics, getting this across the line feels like a stretch.</p>
<p>But we’re still at the initial review stage. Public consultation is open until July 17, and a final report goes to the government in November, after the election. Public opinion could still shift in the meantime.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1665875159490908160"}"></div></p>
<h2>Time to govern</h2>
<p>There are some good practical reasons for extending the parliamentary term. For starters, by the time a new government is sworn in after an election, it’s often nearly Christmas and the nation shuts down and heads to the beach. </p>
<p>Ideally, a new government should get cracking with making policy and legislation in its first and second years. But in the third, anticipation of the next election changes the priorities and the focus.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lowering-new-zealands-voting-age-to-16-would-be-good-for-young-people-and-good-for-democracy-145008">Lowering New Zealand's voting age to 16 would be good for young people – and good for democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To get a new law from a first cabinet paper to an act of parliament can take a couple of years – longer if there’s a lot of argument. So we’re not allowing much time for governments to really get things done. </p>
<p>When we account for the downtime before and after elections, they’re left with roughly two years of action out of every three. That slack could be reduced from roughly one-third to one-quarter if we moved to a four-year term.</p>
<p>On the other hand, many New Zealanders like having their say and holding their representatives to account through the ballot box. That’s not an argument for even shorter terms, but it is certainly a persuasive argument for the status quo.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530267/original/file-20230606-23-5q54gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ACT’s David Seymour: reform ‘doesn’t solve a single urgent problem that New Zealanders face’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>So, if not through a referendum, how would we change the length of the parliamentary term? It is possible if parliament were to pass an amendment to the Electoral Act. That requires a 75% majority. </p>
<p>Given Labour’s Jacinda Ardern and National’s Judith Collins <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427374/political-leaders-favour-four-year-parliamentary-term-but-many-voters-not-so-keen">both supported the idea</a> before the 2020 election, that super-majority may well exist. That’s bolstered by the fact the <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/democracy">ACT Party also supports</a> a four-year term. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theyre-nice-to-me-im-nice-to-them-new-research-sheds-light-on-what-motivates-political-party-donors-in-new-zealand-185574">'They're nice to me, I'm nice to them': new research sheds light on what motivates political party donors in New Zealand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And yet ACT leader David Seymour was <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/act-s-david-seymour-slams-electoral-recommendations-as-waste-of-everyone-s-time.html">quick to rubbish</a> the whole electoral review report. Before most people had even had a chance to read it, he’d declared it a “waste of everyone’s time” and “a major left-wing beat-up that doesn’t solve a single urgent problem that New Zealanders face”.</p>
<p>One explanation for such a negative reaction may lie in one of the report’s other recommendations, which is to eliminate the “coat-tailing” rule. This allows a party that wins at least one electorate seat to bring more MPs into the house, proportional to their party vote even if it’s below the 5% threshold. </p>
<p>The rule has undeniably created inequities. But ACT itself has benefited from it, notably in 2008, when it received just 3.65% of the party vote but took five seats on the back of winning the Epsom electorate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lobbying-regulations-are-vital-to-any-well-functioning-democracy-its-time-nz-got-some-203404">Lobbying regulations are vital to any well functioning democracy – it's time NZ got some</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Self-interest and stalemate</h2>
<p>It’s perhaps inevitable that partisan political self-interest will emerge whenever these electoral reform proposals are made. Those who stand directly to win or lose become the loudest voices in the subsequent debate. The issue itself is politicised before the average voter has even taken in the details.</p>
<p>And, let’s remember, extending the parliamentary term is only one of more than 100 draft recommendations, including lowering the party vote threshold from 5% to 3.5%, and lowering the age of eligibility to vote from 18 to 16. The review process can mean difficult technical, legal and constitutional debates and proposals become bogged down in politics as usual.</p>
<p>Much like the <a href="https://elections.nz/assets/2012-report-of-the-Electoral-Commission-on-the-review-of-mmp.pdf">2012 Electoral Commission review</a>, from which no substantive recommendation for change was ever adopted (the present review repeats some of them), the unintended consequence may be another round of talk, but little action. If there’s a change of government after October’s election, this review is unlikely to go anywhere, other than into the archives. That would be a shame. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s electoral and parliamentary systems aren’t perfect, but no such system is. It may be asking a bit much at present, but some consensus about making them work more democratically and effectively would still be a good thing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A referendum on changing New Zealand’s parliamentary term to four years would be the third such exercise in under 60 years. Why would the outcome be any different this time?Grant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1693512021-10-14T18:33:00Z2021-10-14T18:33:00ZAnniversary of a landslide: new research reveals what really swung New Zealand’s 2020 ‘COVID election’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426292/original/file-20211013-19-kc8jnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C0%2C4520%2C3113&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nine months out from the 2020 election, <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/409476/new-political-poll-shows-national-scraping-into-power-and-nz-first-out-of-parliament">opinion polls</a> suggested it would be a close race between Labour and National. But that all changed with the arrival of the global pandemic. </p>
<p>COVID came to dominate the policy and political agenda from March 2020, ensuring Labour focused its re-election campaign firmly on its pandemic response. As Jacinda Ardern said at the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-newzealand-election-ardern-idUSKCN254046">campaign launch</a>, “When people ask, is this a COVID election, my answer is yes, it is.” </p>
<p>The result was resounding. On October 17, Labour won an unprecedented victory, forming the first single-party majority government of the MMP era. It was the largest ever swing to an incumbent in the history of New Zealand politics.</p>
<p>So what does this result tell us about electoral politics in the context of a global crisis, and the role of incumbency, leadership, trust?</p>
<h2>The voters speak</h2>
<p>When it comes to analysing an election result, changes in party vote or seats give us an overall picture. But to understand why the electorate votes the way it does we need to consider the choices made by individuals. </p>
<p>The New Zealand Election Study (<a href="http://www.nzes.org/">NZES</a>) allows us to look at a random sample of individuals drawn from the electoral roll, and to test some of the factors we know influence voting behaviour. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-final-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The NZES has been conducted after every general election since 1990. In 2020, we surveyed 3,731 participants whose views and votes provide us with a unique insight into the complex interplay of variables that might determine an election result. </p>
<p>Here we highlight some of the topline numbers from our analysis of the 2020 NZES to cast light on what led to the historical election outcome 12 months ago. </p>
<h2>COVID overshadowed all</h2>
<p>The data reveal that 2020 was indeed a COVID election. For instance, we asked people to say what they thought was the most important issue of the election. As our word cloud below shows, COVID was clearly the most mentioned issue, and ranked above many issues traditionally seen as important during election campaigns. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426107/original/file-20211013-13-10qnxdy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No prizes for guessing which issue dominated the 2020 election, but the government cannot ignore others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NZES 2020</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Moreover, the public overwhelmingly supported the government’s response to COVID, with 84% of people approving or strongly approving, while only 6% disapproved. </p>
<p>Of those who approved or strongly approved of the response, 57% reported casting a vote for Labour (9% voted Green, 3% New Zealand First and 1% Māori Party), while only 19% voted for National. </p>
<p>The majority (50%) of people who disapproved of the government’s COVID response voted for National, and a further 19% for ACT, while only 8% voted for Labour.</p>
<h2>Strategic anti-Green voting unlikely</h2>
<p>National’s loss and Labour’s win sparked a number of speculative explanations. For example, Labour’s gains in provincial electorates were claimed to be a result of strategic voting by farmers anxious about Green Party policies and water reform. </p>
<p>Federated Farmers Mid-Canterbury president <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/428684/farmers-want-labour-to-govern-alone-fed-farmers">David Clark argued</a> that “plenty of farmers have voted Labour so they can govern alone rather than having a Labour-Greens government”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labours-single-party-majority-is-not-a-failure-of-mmp-it-is-a-sign-nzs-electoral-system-is-working-148328">Labour's single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ's electoral system is working</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But our analysis of the NZES data reveals only a small change in the farming vote between parties. A majority (57%) of those in farming occupations voted for National and 21% voted for Labour. These numbers contrast with 2017 when National received 67% of the farming vote and Labour just 8%. </p>
<p>On the other hand, ACT’s share of the farming vote increased from 2% to 16%, while the NZ First vote collapsed from 13% to less than 1%. </p>
<p>While these observations are based on a very small sample size of farmers, and should be interpreted with caution, our findings indicate the combined National-ACT vote was relatively unchanged – making the anti-Green argument a little far-fetched. </p>
<h2>The Ardern factor</h2>
<p>Looking at the responses of all voters in our study, we find that of those who switched from National in 2017 to Labour in 2020, 46% placed themselves at the centre of the political spectrum, compared with 25% of voters who voted for National in both the last two elections. </p>
<p>This suggests these centre voters may have always been open to switching from National to Labour, casting further doubt on the strategic voting claim. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/her-cabinet-appointed-jacinda-ardern-now-leads-one-of-the-most-powerful-governments-nz-has-seen-148984">Her cabinet appointed, Jacinda Ardern now leads one of the most powerful governments NZ has seen</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The popularity of Jacinda Ardern – and the lack of popularity of Judith Collins – is also highly likely to have contributed to Labour’s success. Of our NZES respondents, 65% said they most wanted Ardern to be prime minister on election day, compared to only 17% supporting Collins (no one else received over 2% support). </p>
<p>When asked to rate leaders from 0 (strongly dislike) to 10 (strongly like), 33% of people gave Ardern 10, and 69% gave her a 7 or above. In contrast, only 22% of people gave Collins a 7 or above, and 23% gave her 0.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Jacinda Ardern speaking at a COVID-19 briefing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426296/original/file-20211013-19-1t0l1zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426296/original/file-20211013-19-1t0l1zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426296/original/file-20211013-19-1t0l1zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426296/original/file-20211013-19-1t0l1zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426296/original/file-20211013-19-1t0l1zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426296/original/file-20211013-19-1t0l1zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426296/original/file-20211013-19-1t0l1zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Likability plus trust equals victory: the majority of voters approved of the Ardern government’s COVID response.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Labour’s new voters</h2>
<p>We found, unsurprisingly, that likeability and trust are highly correlated, but we also found trust in Ardern as leader was statistically significant in explaining the shift to Labour, even after controlling for how much people liked or disliked her, their prior vote, and their left-right positions. </p>
<p>This supports assessments from around the world that decisive and rapid responses to COVID-19, combined with clear communication, can lead to increased trust in political leaders. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-new-zealands-most-diverse-ever-cabinet-improve-representation-of-women-and-minorities-in-general-149273">Can New Zealand's most diverse ever cabinet improve representation of women and minorities in general?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We also know Labour won nearly half a million new voters compared to 2017. Where did this support come from? Around 16% of 2020 Labour voters reported voting for National in 2017, while 13% stated they did not vote in the previous election. </p>
<p>Of the new Labour voters, the majority (55.5%) were women and just over half (51%) were under the age of 40, with 33% Millennials and 18% Gen Z. When asked which party best represented their views, 58% chose Labour and just 11% chose National. </p>
<p>However, when asked if there was a party they usually felt close to, only 29% reported feeling close to Labour, while 53% did not feel close to any party.</p>
<h2>Non-COVID concerns a warning</h2>
<p>Our NZES data clearly show the 2020 New Zealand general election can indeed be thought of as a COVID election. Support for the government’s rapid public health and economic policy responses, and the popularity of Ardern, go a long way to explaining the outcome. </p>
<p>However, as the word cloud suggests, there are a number of policy issues that remain of concern to voters, including housing, health and the economy. These were issues that <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/populist-exception">featured in 2017</a> and may continue to matter through to the 2023 election. </p>
<p>Our preliminary analysis, then, is a reminder that Labour cannot take its new voters for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josh Van Veen is affiliated with Progress New Zealand Incorporated, a non-partisan group established to promote democratic citizenship. He is a former member of New Zealand First and worked as a researcher for the party from 2011 to 2013.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Vowles is a PI on the 2020 New Zealand Election Study which received funding from Victoria University of Wellington, the New Zealand Electoral Commission, the University of Auckland and the University of Otago.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Curtin is a PI on the 2020 New Zealand Election Study which received funding from the New Zealand Electoral Commission, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington and the University of Auckland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lara Greaves is a PI on the 2020 New Zealand Election Study which received funding from the New Zealand Electoral Commission, Victoria University of Wellington, Otago University, and the University of Auckland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Crawley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One year on, the NZ Election Survey crunches the numbers on what drove Jacinda Ardern’s unprecedented 2020 victory.Josh Van Veen, Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauJack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonJennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLara Greaves, Lecturer, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauSam Crawley, Postdoctoral fellow, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492732020-11-03T00:37:20Z2020-11-03T00:37:20ZCan New Zealand’s most diverse ever cabinet improve representation of women and minorities in general?<p>Two weeks after Labour’s landslide election win, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a ministry that is more diverse than any seen before in New Zealand. </p>
<p>Of those inside cabinet, 40% are women, 25% are Māori (two in five of those are women), 15% are Pasifika (two in three are women), and 15% are LGBTQI — one of whom is Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson. </p>
<p>Beyond the 20 cabinet ministers, there are four ministers outside cabinet and two undersecretaries. Of these six, three are women, two are Māori, one is Pasifika and one is Indian. Green Party co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw are also associate ministers outside cabinet. The diversity of Ardern’s new government runs deep.</p>
<p>There remain important voices missing from cabinet, however. As Jonny Wilkinson of disability support network <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/jonny-wilkinson-election-2020-results-good-for-diversity-but-disability-voice-missing/HA5G2SHS5GIQIEHIAHVWPIOAYQ/">Tiaho Trust</a> noted, disabled people are the largest minority group in New Zealand but they lack representation in parliament and cabinet. </p>
<h2>Greater diversity over time</h2>
<p>In 2017 Ardern set herself a target of a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/342022/ardern-vows-to-improve-cabinet-gender-balance">gender balanced</a> cabinet. She missed achieving this in 2020 despite demands for, and achievement of, increased <a href="https://www.iknowpolitics.org/en/learn/knowledge-resources/data-and-statistics/gender-parity-cabinets-are-rise">gender parity</a> in government executive branches globally in recent years.</p>
<p>As the proportion of women in parliament increases, it is argued, so too does the pool of eligible candidates from which the prime minister can select women ministers. </p>
<p>Some leaders have ignored this, including former Australian prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/16/women-cabinet-abbott">Tony Abbott</a>, who claimed there were insufficient women parliamentarians with the experience needed for cabinet. That position has become increasingly untenable over time. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/her-cabinet-appointed-jacinda-ardern-now-leads-one-of-the-most-powerful-governments-nz-has-seen-148984">Her cabinet appointed, Jacinda Ardern now leads one of the most powerful governments NZ has seen</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While large scale comparative studies suggest women leaders are no more likely than their male counterparts to select women ministers, in New Zealand we know that it was Labour’s Helen Clark who substantially increased the proportion of women promoted to cabinet (from 11% in 1996 to 35% in 1999). </p>
<p>National Party Prime Minister John Key followed her example, ensuring his cabinets comprised at least 30% women. Ardern has moved the bar higher by selecting 40% women. </p>
<h2>The gender quota debate</h2>
<p>That we have yet to reach gender parity may raise questions in New Zealand and elsewhere. However, our major parties have long resisted implementing strict gender quotas, meaning incremental progress is the norm. That said, our global gender ranking has gone from 50th equal to <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/women-in-politics-map-2020-en.pdf?la=en&vs=827">26th equal</a>.</p>
<p>This contrasts with Canada’s Justin Trudeau, who in 2015 made history when he selected his <a href="https://pacificoutlier.org/2015/11/05/matthew-kerby-and-jennifer-curtin-gender-parity-and-the-2015-canadian-federal-cabinet-trudeaus-first-history-making-moment/">first gender parity</a> cabinet. There had been criticism of the policy by pundits who argued diversity and merit could not co-exist, but Trudeau’s response was pithy: “Because it’s 2015.” </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-mp-ibrahim-omers-election-highlights-the-challenges-refugees-from-africa-face-in-new-zealand-148621">New MP Ibrahim Omer's election highlights the challenges refugees from Africa face in New Zealand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Five years on, Ardern may have anticipated similar resistance. Asked about the basis of her cabinet selection, she said it was based on “merit, talent and diversity”. Gender balance was the byproduct, in other words. </p>
<p>We also know that not all ministries are created equal. Globally it is finance, foreign affairs, defence and other highly resourced portfolios that are most prized. These usually make up the leader’s inner circle (remember former Labour Prime Minister David Lange’s all male “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_and_Chip_Brigade">fish and chip brigade</a>”). </p>
<p>However, the Interparliamentary Union’s annual maps of <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/women-in-politics-map-2020-en.pdf?la=en&vs=827">women in world politics</a> reveal these ministries continue to be allocated more often to men than women. </p>
<h2>Women inside the inner circle</h2>
<p>This is not the case in Labour’s new cabinet. Ardern’s inner circle (or top five if the photos are anything to go by) includes two women. The top ten positions in cabinet are shared equally between the sexes, with the portfolios alternating between women and men in order of seniority. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s first female foreign affairs minister is Nanaia Mahuta, former associate minister of trade and a senior member of Labour’s Māori caucus. Fourth ranked Megan Woods, who holds a number of big-budget portfolios, has been made associate minister of finance. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-equal-health-access-and-outcomes-should-be-a-priority-for-arderns-new-government-148421">Why equal health access and outcomes should be a priority for Ardern's new government</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are four new women ministers (one of whom has come straight into cabinet from outside parliament), who have portfolios of their own but who are also associate ministers working with other senior ministers. This is an important strategy — if those senior ministers take their roles seriously, it will ensure these more junior women are likelier to succeed. </p>
<h2>The challenge of wider diversity</h2>
<p>One <a href="https://www.genderjustice.nz/why_this_matters">question</a> that remains for women’s organisations, however, is whether this new-look ministry will enhance the substantive representation of women and other minorities. </p>
<p>Women workers (as well as the young, Māori and Pasifika) have borne the brunt of job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning we need gender and diversity analyses applied to all <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/what-the-budget-means-for-women">future economic recovery commitments</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, our <a href="https://nzfvc.org.nz/family-violence-statistics">family and sexual violence</a> rates remain high, although the cross-portfolio policy responses continue to be led by talented ministers from both Labour and the Greens. </p>
<p>Whether this will be a feminist-focused cabinet remains to be seen. But the diversity of expertise, perspectives and lived experiences among the women around the cabinet table offers an opportunity to bring more diversity into policy deliberations and decisions. As it should — after all, it’s 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Curtin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Half of Jacinda Ardern’s ten most senior ministers are now women, lifting NZ’s global gender ranking from 50th to 26th.Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489842020-11-02T02:14:32Z2020-11-02T02:14:32ZHer cabinet appointed, Jacinda Ardern now leads one of the most powerful governments NZ has seen<p>Jacinda Ardern’s new “<a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1309/482507295-Ministerial-List.pdf?1604279064">COVID cabinet</a>” is pretty much the same as — and completely unlike — every previous government under the mixed member proportional (MMP) system. </p>
<p>The similarity involves the political accommodation reached between Labour and the Greens. Every government formed since 1996 has rested on <a href="https://www.mcguinnessinstitute.org/civicsnz/obtaining-a-comprehensive-list-of-coalition-agreements-and-support-agreement-documents-since-1996/">such arrangements</a>. This one does too.</p>
<p>The difference lies in Ardern’s administration being the first single-party majority government since the electoral rules changed in the mid-1990s. Add to that the arrangement with the Greens and they have a massive 74-seat bloc in the House — 13 more than is needed to govern. </p>
<p>In brute political terms, Ardern is at the head of one of (and perhaps <em>the</em>) biggest parliamentary alliances in the nation’s history.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1323055498397011968"}"></div></p>
<h2>The Greens’ consolation prize</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300146558/election-2020-green-party-votes-to-be-part-of-next-government-with-labour">deal</a> announced over the weekend is a cooperation agreement. Think of it as the smallest of the consolation prizes, the thing you’re offered when your support is nice to have but not really necessary. </p>
<p>For the 15% of Green delegates who voted against it, perhaps it was just too small, and you can see their point. In the last government (when the party had eight rather than ten seats), the Greens held ten full or associate portfolios. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-final-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>None of their ministers sat in cabinet, true, but there were four in the executive. Now there are only two, holding four portfolios between them — and they’re still not sitting at the top table.</p>
<p>Look more closely at <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/the-full-proposed-cooperation-agreement-between-labour-and-the-greens.html">the detail</a>, though, and things get more interesting. </p>
<h2>A new kind of MMP</h2>
<p>The Green ministers will participate in relevant cabinet committees and informal ministerial groups, have access to officials’ papers, and get to meet with the prime minister at least every six weeks. Labour and the Greens’ respective chiefs of staff will also meet regularly.</p>
<p>What’s more, the party will chair one parliamentary committee and get the deputy’s slot on another. In non-portfolio areas of mutual interest, Green spokespeople will have access to Labour ministers and departmental advice. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>All that and they get to publicly disagree with the government on policies that fall outside Green portfolios. That is not a bad policy haul for a party Labour does not need to form a government.</p>
<p>And there is no way any of it would have happened under the single-party majority governments we used to see under the previous first-past-the-post system. So it may be a consolation prize, but in fact it’s not that small.</p>
<h2>A more diverse government</h2>
<p>As well as being the first single-party majority MMP government, it is also a diverse one. In her first term Ardern acknowledged the importance of having more women in cabinet. Nearly half (47%) of the new parliament — and a majority of Labour’s caucus (53%) — are women. </p>
<p>To some extent this is reflected in the makeup of the executive. Eight of the 20 full cabinet members are women; in total, women comprise 43% of the wider administration. There are more women in the ministry than in the National Party’s caucus.</p>
<p>The executive also contains a solid number of people of colour: perhaps as many as a quarter of all ministers and parliamentary under-secretaries are non-Pākehā.</p>
<p>On election night, Labour’s Māori caucus conveyed a direct message to the prime minister about the importance of a solid Māori presence in Cabinet. She appears to have listened. </p>
<p>Between them, Labour’s Māori MPs get five seats in cabinet. Add positions outside cabinet as well as the Greens’ Marama Davidson and Māori comprise 25% of all members of the executive. Perhaps most noteworthy is that Nanaia Mahuta becomes the country’s first female Minister of Foreign Affairs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labours-single-party-majority-is-not-a-failure-of-mmp-it-is-a-sign-nzs-electoral-system-is-working-148328">Labour's single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ's electoral system is working</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ardern has also looked carefully at her back bench and the clutch of incoming MPs, bringing some of them into the political executive. Jan Tinetti and Kiri Allan have been marked for higher things for some time, while the newly minted MP <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/121229439/the-story-behind-the-doctor-pushing-for-better-covid19-contact-tracing">Dr Ayesha Verrall</a> comes straight into cabinet as an associate health minister.</p>
<h2>Power and control</h2>
<p>Under certain circumstances a large parliamentary caucus can be a challenge. Thwarted egos, stifled ambitions, fits of pique — once the thrill of the election result has worn off, managing relations between those who are in government and the wider parliamentary party will be one of the chief challenges facing Labour’s whips. </p>
<p>The Green co-leaders aside, Ardern’s executive comprises 40% of the Labour party’s caucus. Given the conventions of collective cabinet responsibility, this means that members of the government have a near majority within caucus, so discipline shouldn’t be an issue — yet.</p>
<p>It is hard to overstate just how much control Ardern has over New Zealand’s 53rd parliament. Even before special votes are counted, the parliamentary arithmetic renders National, ACT and the Māori Party virtually irrelevant. </p>
<p>Labour dominates the executive, and between them Labour and the Greens will dominate the legislature and its committees. Voters have placed considerable power in Ardern’s hands. It’s time to see what she does with it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148984/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new cabinet may be diverse and inclusive, but Labour also has unprecedented executive and legislative control.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483302020-10-20T09:47:40Z2020-10-20T09:47:40ZThe 2020 NZ election saw record vote volatility — what does that mean for the next Labour government?<p>As the dust begins to settle after the 2020 election, a new electoral landscape becomes visible. It is remarkably different from the one before.</p>
<p>One way to put this in perspective is by measuring what we call “vote volatility” — the net vote shift between parties from one election to the next. By this calculation the 2020 election has ended a period of relative stability. </p>
<p>More significantly, unless reduced after the final count, the net vote shift will be the biggest in over a century. </p>
<p>The challenge will be for Labour to capitalise on this landmark in New Zealand electoral history — before the wheel inevitably turns again.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1317575063617548288"}"></div></p>
<h2>The first Labour landslide</h2>
<p>Vote volatility is calculated by adding the absolute changes in parties’ vote shares between elections, then dividing the sum by two. A score of 0 would mean parties all received the same vote shares as before. A score of 100 would mean a complete replacement of one set of parties by another.</p>
<p>Over the past century, New Zealand has had four elections in which net vote shifts have been well above the norm: 1919, 1935, 2005 and now 2020. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364413/original/file-20201020-15-1bsqkxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364413/original/file-20201020-15-1bsqkxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364413/original/file-20201020-15-1bsqkxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364413/original/file-20201020-15-1bsqkxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364413/original/file-20201020-15-1bsqkxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364413/original/file-20201020-15-1bsqkxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364413/original/file-20201020-15-1bsqkxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1919, the Labour Party broke through into the city electorates and destroyed an embryonic two-party system that had pitched the Reform Party against the Liberal Party at the 1911 and 1914 elections. This turned elections into three-way races, with Labour winning mostly major urban seats, the Liberals doing better in the provincial towns and cities, and Reform in the countryside. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labours-single-party-majority-is-not-a-failure-of-mmp-it-is-a-sign-nzs-electoral-system-is-working-148328">Labour's single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ's electoral system is working</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 1935, in a massive electoral landslide, Michael Joseph Savage’s Labour advanced further, <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/labour-party/page-2">forming</a> its first government. Three conservative parties merged to form the National Party, ushering in New Zealand’s second two-party system. </p>
<p>That lasted much longer, but began to decay as early as the 1950s. At the 1984 election, net vote shifts were higher than at any election since 1938. However, the <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/electoral-systems/page-3">first-past-the-post</a> system had prevented the emergence of a multi-party system from the 1970s onwards.</p>
<h2>An end to vote stability</h2>
<p>An upward vote volatility trend, beginning as long ago as the 1960s, continued after the introduction of MMP. Through the 1996, 1999 and 2002 elections, it reached a peak in 2005. After that, votes moved back in the direction of Labour and National. </p>
<p>As the pattern seemed to persist it led some observers to wonder whether the multi-party politics promised by MMP was a “mirage”. </p>
<p>ACT became a one-seat party, its Epsom electorate strategically gifted from National. New Zealand First dropped out of parliament in 2008, but returned in 2011. Only the Green Party prospered from one election to the next, eating into Labour’s vote share as the party languished in opposition during the John Key years. </p>
<p>Despite the change of government in 2008, vote shifts were modest, a pattern repeated in 2011. Indeed, in 2014 net vote shifts were the second lowest of any election over the previous century, only slightly higher than those of the “no change” election of 1963. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 2017, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour took office, <a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2017/new-zealand-2017-general-election-official-results/">reflecting</a> a real shift to the left, but relying on New Zealand First’s coalition choice more than the movement of votes (which was not enough for a left majority). It seemed party politics under MMP had stabilised after a brief period of experimentation that ended after the 2005 election.</p>
<p>The 2020 election breaks the mould. If the pattern holds after the counting of special votes, it will surpass even 1935, New Zealand’s hitherto most dramatic realigning election. </p>
<p>Moreover, <a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2020/preliminary-results-for-the-2020-general-election/">turnout was up</a>, another indicator of a big change. This was despite a widely predicted Labour win and a big margin between Labour and National in pre-election polls — expectation of a decisive result usually pulls turnout down. </p>
<h2>The challenge to create a legacy</h2>
<p>One might dismiss this as a one-off. COVID-19 and the government response created a perfect storm. When the crisis is over, things will return to normal. </p>
<p>But one could have said the same thing in 1935. The depression of the 1930s gave Labour the chance to win. Even if the economic recovery that followed was only partly an effect of Labour policy, the party reaped the rewards in 1938. </p>
<p>Like Michael Joseph Savage before her, Jacinda Ardern has demonstrated the leadership demanded by the times. But there is a difference. Labour in 1935 came to power with a big promise of a welfare state. Labour in 2020 has made no big promises, although many smaller ones. It faces huge challenges, arguably much more demanding than those of the 1930s. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>COVID-19 and a sustainable economic recovery will be the first priorities. Climate change, increased international tension, trade wars, internal cultural diversity and working through ongoing responsibilities under the Treaty of Waitangi — all of these will test the mettle of the Ardern government.</p>
<p>The 2020 election tells us the New Zealand party system is more prone to big shifts than expected after 2005. Periods of apparent two-party dominance may be temporary. Both Labour and National are prone to rise and fall, creating space for smaller parties to step into the gaps as they open, and fall back as they close. </p>
<p>The catalysts of change may be big external shocks or internal challenges. All else being equal, the 2020 election is likely to herald a period of Labour dominance, but eventually the tide will turn. Labour’s biggest challenge will be to establish a lasting policy legacy before that happens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As part of the New Zealand Election Study, Jack Vowles receives funding from Victoria University of Wellington and the New Zealand Electoral Commission.</span></em></p>If the pattern on election night holds, 2020 will be the most dramatic election in 100 years in terms of votes shifting between major parties.Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483282020-10-19T00:28:49Z2020-10-19T00:28:49ZLabour’s single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ’s electoral system is working<p>Even as the results rolled in on election night there were mutterings that a parliamentary majority controlled by one political party is somehow inconsistent with the spirit of <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>. The magnitude of the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party’s victory will no doubt encourage that view. </p>
<p>Wrong. In at least three respects the election result is exactly what electoral reform was about. </p>
<h2>The mandate</h2>
<p>For the better part of the 20th century single-party majority governments in Aotearoa New Zealand were formed by parties that won a minority of the popular vote. The best example (or worst, depending on your view) was in 1993, when Jim Bolger’s National Party wound up with a manufactured parliamentary majority based on just <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/historical-events/18901993-general-elections">35% of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>You need to go all the way back to 1951 to find the last time a governing party won a majority of the vote. </p>
<p>But you can’t get away with this under MMP. Ardern has already racked up Labour’s highest share of the vote since the 51.3% Peter Fraser’s Labour Party won in 1946. It’s also the best performance of any party under MMP. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-final-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>She’s done it at a time when voting for a party other than Labour or National is both possible and pretty normal. If, once special votes have been counted, Labour clears 50% of the vote Ardern will have achieved something no prime minister has done in 70 years. </p>
<p>MMP was designed to accurately translate people’s votes into parliamentary seats — and that is exactly what it has done.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/D20Agteh7U0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A government for all: Jacinda Ardern affirms her consensus credentials in her election victory speech.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Policy moderation</h2>
<p>Ardern is a centrist, a <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-vows-to-govern-for-every-new-zealander-in-victory-speech.html">self-avowed</a> consensus politician. Her single-party majority government will not behave as the Labour and National administrations of the 1980s and 1990s did. </p>
<p>New Zealanders <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/fpp-to-mmp/putting-it-to-the-vote">changed the electoral rules</a> because they were sick of <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/1st-term-4th-labour-government">radical swings</a> of the policy pendulum driven by single-party majority governments ruling on the basis of a minority of the vote. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If MMP was designed to do anything it was to lock in policy moderation. In fact, in the early 1990s, the Treasury was concerned to implement its favoured neo-liberal reforms before the electoral system changed, precisely because it knew policy radicalism would be next to impossible under MMP. </p>
<p>Where the David Lange-led Labour and Bolger-led National governments of the late 20th century were doctrinaire and divisive, Ardern will be pragmatic and focused on results. For better or worse, she knows exactly where the median voter lives.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1317964058172116992"}"></div></p>
<h2>Diversity of representation</h2>
<p>For reasonable people, one of the purposes of an electoral system is to produce legislatures that broadly reflect the people who choose them. On at least one count MMP is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123125481/incoming-parliament-set-to-be-our-most-inclusive-with-increase-in-women-people-of-colour-and-lgbtq-members">heading in the right direction</a>. </p>
<p>In 1996, the first MMP parliament doubled the presence of women in the House of Representatives. By 2017 the proportion of women parliamentarians stood at 40%. That figure got another bump on Saturday, pushing the number of women in the 120-member legislature from 49 to 56. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Nearly half (46.5%) of all parliamentarians are now women, the vast majority of them — 73% — members of the Labour or Green parties. This lifts New Zealand from 20th on the <a href="https://data.ipu.org/women-ranking?month=10&year=2020">international league table</a> to ninth (two spots behind Sweden).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1317898461342101505"}"></div></p>
<h2>MMP was the winner</h2>
<p>This election will change the way politics is done, discussed and practised in Aotearoa NZ due to three significant developments:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Labour has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428600/the-red-tide-labour-wins-15-seats-held-by-national">won big</a> in the towns and in the country. National can no longer claim to be the party of rural people, and Labour can no longer be painted as the party of urban élites. In fact, the fundamental question confronting National now is: what kind of party are we?</p></li>
<li><p>Once special votes are counted, it is possible Labour will have over 50% of the vote. Not only will it be the first time this has happened since 1951, it will also mean most New Zealanders have chosen a politics of communitarianism over a politics of individualism.</p></li>
<li><p>For the first time in our history more people <a href="https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics">voted before</a> polling day than on the day itself (a <em>lot</em> more — advance voting this year reached the equivalent of 70% of all of the votes cast in 2017). The very nature of elections has changed, meaning the laws banning political activity on polling day need to be revised. (In the process, the problem of setting an election date to avoid an All Blacks Test might be avoided.) </p></li>
</ul>
<p>There is more to be digested, including that this parliament contains no small-party tail to <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/stop-the-tail-from-wagging-the-dog">wag the big party’s dog</a>. But right now one thing is clear: MMP gets two ticks for its performance this year. It has done exactly what it was designed to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The people have spoken, and MMP has delivered the right result — even if it means Labour governs alone.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482452020-10-17T12:18:27Z2020-10-17T12:18:27ZJacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364050/original/file-20201017-23-9df57a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3982%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The pre-election polls suggested it might happen. But the fact that Labour and Jacinda Ardern have provisionally won an outright majority and the mandate to govern New Zealand alone is more than an electoral landslide — it is a tectonic shift. </p>
<p>You can see the full results and compare them with the 2017 election <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-at-a-glance-graphs-and-tables-147757">here</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1317399014371778560"}"></div></p>
<p>This is also not a result the mixed member proportional (<a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>) voting system was <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-polls-showing-labour-could-govern-alone-is-new-zealand-returning-to-the-days-of-elected-dictatorship-146918">designed to deliver</a>. The challenge for Ardern and Labour now will be to translate that mandate — and the fact that their natural coalition partner the Greens have performed strongly too — into the “transformational” agenda promised since 2017.</p>
<p>For now, there is much to digest in the sheer scale of the swing against National and the likely shape of the next parliament. Our panel of political analysts deliver their initial responses and predictions.</p>
<h2>Labour rewarded for its COVID response</h2>
<p><strong>Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka/Victoria University of Wellington</strong></p>
<p>It’s an historic MMP result, and that is down to one thing: COVID-19. Labour and Ardern made the right calls. Comparative analysis of COVID responses internationally shows it’s not just a matter of what you do, it’s a matter of whether you do it soon enough. Labour did that and have been rewarded electorally.</p>
<p>The polls were largely in line with what looks like the final result will be — the Greens have done a bit better, as has Labour, and National appreciably worse. It’s unlikely they can claw that back to where earlier polls had them. Special votes will be roughly 15% of the total and they are likely to go more in Labour’s and the Green’s direction, as they did in 2017.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-why-gender-stereotypes-still-affect-perceptions-of-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-as-leaders-147837">NZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The swing away from National is pretty dramatic. If it is indeed the first single party majority under MMP it’s very unlikely to happen again for a long time. The big question is whether Labour wants to do a deal with the Greens when they don’t have to. </p>
<p>It might be in their interests to do so in the long run — in 2023 Labour probably won’t be in such a strong position. If they have a good relationship with the Greens it might stand them in better stead, but it’s a tough strategic call.</p>
<p>As for New Zealand First, according to analysis of the Reid Research polls over the past months, most of their vote has gone to Labour. And that is simply another reflection of this being a COVID election. Labour was rewarded for protecting New Zealanders, particularly the most vulnerable — and that is in the traditions of the Labour Party.</p>
<h2>Labour win masks smaller victories</h2>
<p><strong>Bronwyn Hayward, Professor of Politics, University of Canterbury</strong></p>
<p>With a record 1.9 million people casting an early vote, this was always going to be an election with a difference. Younger voters also enrolled in historic numbers, with a significant increase in those aged 18 to 29 enrolling across the country. A generation’s hopes and aspirations now hang in the balance. </p>
<p>Labour’s victory offers the party command of the house, an unprecedented situation in an MMP government. But it masks some other remarkable achievements. The Māori Party’s fortunes have risen, with very little national media coverage. </p>
<p>ACT has been transformed from a tiny grouping of 13,075 party votes in 2017 to win an astonishing 185,723 party votes this year. </p>
<p>The Greens defied a dominant mantra that small parties who enter governance arrangements are eclipsed in the next election. They maintained their distinctive brand and should bring ten MPs into the House. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-promised-transformation-instead-the-times-transformed-her-142900">NZ election 2020: Jacinda Ardern promised transformation — instead, the times transformed her</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300135281/election-2020-greens-chle-swarbrick-takes-auckland-central-in-shock-win">epic struggle</a> for Auckland Central by Chlöe Swarbrick (Green) and Helen White (Labour) has pushed up both the Green and the Labour vote — a microcosm of the wider shift to a progressive left electorate bloc. </p>
<p>The challenge now is for Labour to decide to open this victory to support parties. What happens next matters as much as the election itself. Will a Labour government led by the most popular prime minister in New Zealand’s history be incrementalist or transformative in tackling the biggest challenges any government has faced in peacetime?</p>
<h2>The Māori Party returns</h2>
<p><strong>Lindsey Te Ata o Tau MacDonald, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Canterbury</strong></p>
<p>Tonight demonstrates that Māori voters continue to waver between the Māori Party via its electorate MPs and Labour via the party vote. </p>
<p>On one side there is the legacy of Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples, and the founding generation of “by Māori, for Māori, with Māori” in the post-settlement era. Rawiri Waititi, who may well take Tamiti Coffey’s seat in Waiariki, is the living embodiment of the success of that struggle. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1317387028091129862"}"></div></p>
<p>The other side is exemplified by Koro Wetere’s triumph in 1975 in creating the Waitangi Tribunal. These two stories — struggle via protest and gradual legislative change — were deeply intertwined in Labour’s grip on the Māori seats until 2003. Then, in one grand racist gesture, Labour proved itself a colonial government by taking the last Māori land, the foreshore and seabed, by statute. </p>
<p>Māori voters have not forgotten the deep betrayal of that removal of their property rights. Hence the close races tonight for those who truly inherit the mantle of the Māori party’s founders, such as Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. </p>
<p>John Tamihere’s close run in Tāmaki Makaurau is more just politics, Auckland style, as usual. He may be wondering why he didn’t go with ACT, which has brought in interesting new Māori talent.</p>
<h2>What happened to the ‘shy Tories’?</h2>
<p><strong>Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland</strong></p>
<p>Two aspects are interesting in this post-MMP history-making election. The first is that Labour has made significant gains in the regions. It is now not solely a party of the cities — it looks to have claimed seats that have long been forgotten as bellwethers (Hamilton East and West), as well as those provincial hubs in Taranaki, Canterbury, Hawkes Bay and Northland. </p>
<p>This suggests that while New Zealand First had been gifted the Provincial Growth Fund to deliver regional economic growth to the regions, it was Labour that reaped the rewards of this largesse. </p>
<p>While COVID-19 is definitely part of the reason for Labour’s success, the support is likely to have come from across the political spectrum, bringing its own challenges.</p>
<p>This leads into the second interesting point. Judith Collins reportedly did not share internal polling with her caucus, but public polls suggested National support was in the 30% region. Collins argued the result would be higher, that there were shy Tories who would turn out for National. </p>
<p>In fact, this result suggests it was “shy lefties” the polls had failed to capture. And it appears undecided voters decided National was not for them this time.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1317375318206812165"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-as-the-ultimate-political-survivor-judith-collins-prepares-for-her-ultimate-test-144488">NZ election 2020: as the ultimate political survivor, Judith Collins prepares for her ultimate test</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>With such a mandate, Ardern must deliver</h2>
<p><strong>Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey University</strong></p>
<p>The Prime Minister asked for a mandate and she got it. Final numbers won’t be known for a couple of weeks, but the headline result was one last seen in New Zealand in 1993: a political party in possession of a clear parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>All the same, Jacinda Ardern will be chatting with Green Party leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw (and perhaps the Māori Party, depending on events in Waiariki) about how Labour and the Greens might work together in the 53rd Parliament. Perhaps a formal coalition, but more likely a compact of some sort. </p>
<p>She doesn’t need the Greens to govern and their leverage is limited. But a lot of people who voted for Labour would not have done so under other circumstances (no Ardern, no COVID). At some point they will return home to National. Labour will already be thinking about 2023 and Ardern knows she will need parliamentary friends in the future.</p>
<p>But right now Ardern has a chance to consign the centre-right to the opposition benches for the next couple of electoral cycles. There is a chasm between the combined Labour/Green vote (57%) and National/ACT (35%). ACT had a good night but the centre-right had a shocker. National now has a real problem with rejuvenation. With a low party vote, and having lost so many electorates, their ranks will look old and threadbare in 2023.</p>
<p>This election is tectonic. Ardern has led Labour to its biggest victory since Norman Kirk, and enters the Labour pantheon with Savage, Lange and Clark. Once special votes are counted, Labour could be the first party since 1951 to win a clear majority of the popular vote. </p>
<p>It has won in the towns and in the country. It won the party vote in virtually every single electorate. Labour candidates, many of them women (look for a large influx of new women MPs), have won seats long held by National. </p>
<p>Tonight Labour is looking like the natural party of government in Aotearoa New Zealand. Ardern has her mandate — now she needs to deliver.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Jacinda Ardern and Labour are returned to power in a landslide, making New Zealand political history in the process.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityBronwyn Hayward, Professor of Politics, University of CanterburyJack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonJennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLindsey Te Ata o Tu MacDonald, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481822020-10-15T22:29:29Z2020-10-15T22:29:29ZNZ election 2020: how might record advance voting numbers influence the final outcome?<p>With under 48 hours until polls close in the 2020 election, 1,742,960 New Zealanders have already made an <a href="https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics/">advance vote</a>. This represents 67% of the total number of votes cast in the 2017 general election and is the most advance votes ever cast in a New Zealand general election. </p>
<p><iframe id="JDiaK" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JDiaK/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Is it possible to read the tea leaves in these numbers and predict what’s going to happen on Saturday? </p>
<p>Earlier this century and facing plummeting voter turnout, the Electoral Commission surveyed non-voters as to why they had not cast a vote. Respondents said they simply forgot or were otherwise busy on election day, away or overseas. </p>
<p>To mitigate these factors, the commission has <a href="https://vote.nz/">made it easier</a> for people to vote when and where it suits them. It has opened polling booths two weeks ahead of the election day in a range of locations, including school and church halls, mosques, marae, universities, clubrooms, libraries and pop-ups in retail spaces. </p>
<p>As a strategy to increase the total vote, this appears to have worked. Turnout <a href="http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-social-indicators/Home/Trust%20and%20participation%20in%20government/voter-turnout.aspx">has risen</a> from a record low of 74.2% of enrolled voters in 2011 to 77.9% in 2014 and 79.01% in 2017. </p>
<p>Advance voting is not the only factor in these statistics. Voter advice applications such as Massey University’s <a href="https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/10903"></a><a href="https://onthefence.co.nz">On The Fence</a> have helped first-time voters feel more confident about the voting process. This has led to higher youth voter turnout, contributing to the rise in overall turnout. </p>
<h2>Who benefits from advance voting?</h2>
<p>Our major political parties have cottoned on to the advantages they can gain by promoting advance voting. Core major party voters tend to decide their voting choices well before the official campaign period. It’s therefore in major party interests to lock those votes in before random campaign events shake voters’ confidence in their choices at the last minute. </p>
<p>Parties only have to look back at the 2002 election to see the impact of this. When Labour entered the campaign it was hovering around 53% support. Following a random <a href="https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/3-news-corngate-interview-with-helen-clark-2002">media storm</a> over genetically engineered corn, which blew over as quickly as it arrived, Labour’s vote dropped over ten points to 41.26% on election day. </p>
<p>It was therefore no surprise to see our major party leaders, Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-election-2020-pm-jacinda-ardern-one-of-first-to-vote-as-early-voting-begins/M64HO3OY4V27UEB4B256X2XUCE/">casting their votes</a> on the first weekend polls were open, projecting confidence and role-modelling the acceptability of advance voting. Green co-leader James Shaw and ACT leader David Seymour also voted that weekend, hopeful of locking in the opinion poll gains their parties had made in the middle of the campaign period.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-5-experts-on-the-final-debate-and-the-campaigns-winners-and-losers-ahead-of-the-big-decision-147982">NZ election 2020: 5 experts on the final debate and the campaign's winners and losers ahead of the big decision</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has said he will wait until tomorrow to cast his vote. On the grounds of “clanger after clanger after clanger being dropped every day now”, he has <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nz-first-leader-winston-peters-labels-push-for-early-voting-a-fear-campaign/H2UQUV2PBWQZBNKOJVCZPME6R4/">warned</a> “only a fool tests the water with both feet”. He has encouraged voters to wait until election day so they know all the facts before casting their votes. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1316776953337180161"}"></div></p>
<p>This isn’t just Peters playing amateur philosopher. Currently languishing in the polls, it has never been more important for New Zealand First to discourage advance voting. Peters will know that many of his supporters in previous elections have been protest voters who opted for New Zealand First as a matter of last resort because they liked neither of the major parties’ offerings or leaders. </p>
<p>Unfortunately for the party, some of the clangers this week are own goals. News about the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/428454/exclusive-the-secret-case-of-the-nz-first-foundation">financial scandal</a> concerning the New Zealand First Foundation is more likely to hurt than benefit the party’s election fortunes this close to election day. </p>
<h2>The impact of late strategic voting</h2>
<p>Plenty of voters are still to cast their votes today and tomorrow. History shows many will end up voting the same way they would have two months ago, irrespective of what has transpired during the campaign. </p>
<p>But a good proportion will also have been waiting for last night’s opinion poll to decide how to strategically cast their vote to influence the composition of the next parliament. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-why-gender-stereotypes-still-affect-perceptions-of-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-as-leaders-147837">NZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If it looks like their preferred party is “safe”, they may give their votes to a minor party to help them form part of a final coalition. If their preferred party is looking unsafe, they may give their votes to a minor party to send a message of disappointment for poor performance. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1316605018980540418"}"></div></p>
<p>Since the MMP system began, the minor party vote has been highest in the elections where the pre-election poll gap between the major parties has been widest. With last night’s gap between Labour and National remaining a <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-strong-lead-over-national-greens-climb">whopping 15 points</a>, it looks like the Greens and ACT will be the beneficiaries of late strategic voting, not either of the major parties. </p>
<p>This won’t be the result Ardern and Collins were hoping for when they cast their advance votes two weeks ago, but democracy in New Zealand will ultimately be stronger for it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Robinson is one of the leaders of the Design+Democracy Project at Massey University which has produced On The Fence.</span></em></p>With more votes cast before election day than on it, late strategic voting could make all the difference.Claire Robinson, Professor of Communication Design, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1475662020-10-08T22:56:02Z2020-10-08T22:56:02ZWith foreign policy largely missing from NZ’s election campaign, what global challenges face the next government?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362556/original/file-20201008-20-1fbbyrs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C11%2C3843%2C2573&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of the time, New Zealand looks outwards at the world. For the past three years, however, the world has watched New Zealand deal with a terror attack, a natural disaster and a global pandemic. </p>
<p>This reversal is reflected in the current election campaign. While refugees, trade deals and our military presence in Iraq were all in the mix in 2017, in 2020 foreign policy has been largely absent from political debate.</p>
<p>Given the focus on domestic safety and well-being, it’s understandable New Zealand is largely inward-looking. But the world will still be there after October 17, and the next government will face some serious foreign policy challenges.</p>
<h2>What to do with the WHO</h2>
<p>Perhaps most immediately crucial is what to do about the World Health Organisation. While New Zealand is supporting <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2007/S00013/nz-joins-global-facility-for-pre-purchase-of-covid-vaccine.htm">global efforts</a> to develop and distribute a COVID-19 vaccine, pressing for improved global preparedness for the next pandemic must be a priority. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hate-crimes-against-muslims-spiked-after-the-mosque-attacks-and-ardern-promises-to-make-such-abuse-illegal-147347">Hate crimes against Muslims spiked after the mosque attacks, and Ardern promises to make such abuse illegal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We should know more about whether political parties propose changes to the WHO, and whether they will increase (or decrease) our small <a href="https://open.who.int/2020-21/contributors/contributor">(0.1%</a>) contribution to its total budget.</p>
<p>This is doubly complicated by the United States <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53327906">withdrawing</a> from the WHO and cutting its funding (10.8% of the total budget), effectively abandoning a leadership role. </p>
<h2>Working with the US</h2>
<p>The broader global role of the US presents huge problems for an incoming government, too. The US elections taking place a month after New Zealand’s only heighten this — including the possibility of President Donald Trump being re-elected. </p>
<p>Although both Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins have <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-judith-collins-jacinda-ardern-dish-out-their-opinion-on-us-president-donald-trump.html">promised to work</a> with whoever wins, the nature of our relationship with the US is in the balance.</p>
<p>New Zealand was drawn into the Iraq conflict under a National-led government <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/john-key-the-price-of-being-part-five-eyes-is-joining-isis-fight-6221595">as part of the price</a> of being a member of the “<a href="https://www.gcsb.govt.nz/about-us/ukusa-allies/">Five Eyes</a>” security alliance. Despite reservations, the current Labour-led coalition maintained a troop presence until <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120683801/kiwi-soldiers-entirely-withdraw-from-iraqs-camp-taji-ending-a-fiveyear-deployment">early 2020</a>. </p>
<p>So far, though, the Labour-led government has steered away from other potential American adventures (such as with Iran). But it has kept New Zealand <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/08/china-deplores-rejects-statement-from-five-eyes-expressing-concern-at-events-in-hong-kong.html">broadly aligned</a> with its Five Eyes partners over China and Hong Kong. </p>
<h2>China and security</h2>
<p>Even with the recent revelations that Zhenhua Data was <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/426170/concerns-over-chinese-data-collection-on-influential-nzers">collecting information</a> on a number of prominent New Zealanders, both major party leaders avoided direct criticism of China.</p>
<p>Winston Peters was <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/426264/zhenhua-data-collection-disquieting-in-the-extreme-winston-peters">less diplomatic</a>, but the probability that Five Eyes carries out the same kind of data gathering means New Zealand’s position is highly sensitive.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-election-looming-and-new-zealand-first-struggling-in-the-polls-where-have-those-populist-votes-gone-147166">With the election looming and New Zealand First struggling in the polls, where have those populist votes gone?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Both <a href="http://community.scoop.co.nz/2019/05/national-ensuring-foreign-policy-delivers-for-kiwis/">National</a> and <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/foreign-affairs-policy">ACT</a> take a conventional line on maintaining and strengthening traditional alliances, while Labour’s election policy <a href="https://www.labour.org.nz/foreignaffairs">focuses more</a> on trade and climate change than security.</p>
<p>The Greens, however, are clear that New Zealand law <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/global_affairs_policy">should ensure</a> our armed forces never engage in overseas military action without United Nations sanction and the approval of parliament. </p>
<h2>The climate crisis</h2>
<p>The Greens are also more emphatic on climate change, <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/climate_change_policy">stressing</a> the need to halve New Zealand’s CO₂ emissions by 2030 under the <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/why-climate-change-matters/global-response/paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.labour.org.nz/environment">Labour</a>, <a href="https://www.national.org.nz/energy-and-resources">National</a>, <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/environment">ACT</a> and the <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/climate_change_policy">Greens</a> all commit to combating climate change at home (albeit with different policies and timelines), they diverge over international commitments. </p>
<p>It was the National Party that signed the <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/why-climate-change-matters/global-response/paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> in 2015, but New Zealand’s commitments under the agreement will take effect from 2021 — during the term of the next government.</p>
<p>The Ardern government also entered negotiations over the <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/climate/agreement-on-climate-change-trade-and-sustainability-accts-negotiations/">Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability</a>. Involving six small nations, the novel initiative affirms the importance of developing international trade rules that support and advance climate and broader sustainable development objectives.</p>
<p>The current coalition also significantly <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/contribution-agreement-new-zealand-gcf-1.pdf">increased</a> contributions to the Global Green Fund, the mechanism for supporting developing world efforts to reduce emissions. </p>
<h2>Our trade values</h2>
<p>Given New Zealand’s need to trade underpins a broad consensus by most political parties, the lack of debate is maybe not a great surprise. Trade negotiations begun by one government are often concluded by another when power changes hands.</p>
<p>For example, Helen Clark’s Labour government negotiated the free trade agreement with China, John Key’s National-led government cemented it in place, and the current Labour-led regime recently concluded an “<a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/nz-china-free-trade-agreement-upgrade/overview/">upgrade</a>”. </p>
<p>All the major parties have different names at the top of their dance cards, but in reality they all want new trade deals with Britain, Europe, Canada and America. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-survey-shows-voters-are-divided-on-climate-policy-and-urgency-of-action-146569">NZ election 2020: survey shows voters are divided on climate policy and urgency of action</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The debate — had there been any — lies in the values that underpin any future trade deals. Labour emphasises the importance of environmental and labour standards. National is more tepid, raising the question of whether parliament should approve trade deals before they are signed.</p>
<p>The Greens go further, <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/trade_and_foreign_investment_policy">calling for</a> trade to be environmentally sustainable and “fair” by respecting human rights, democracy and national sovereignty. </p>
<h2>NZ’s helping hand</h2>
<p>Beyond trade, there is broad consensus on New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/aid-and-development/our-approach-to-aid/where-our-funding-goes/our-planned-aid-expenditure/">overseas assistance</a> focus and <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/aid-and-development/our-approach-to-aid/our-priorities/">priorities</a>. The problem is, no-one is talking about the tiny amount we spend.</p>
<p>The United Nations target is for nations to spend 0.7% of GDP on overseas aid. New Zealand <a href="https://data.oecd.org/oda/net-oda.htm#indicator-chart">spends</a> just 0.278%. </p>
<p>Increasing foreign aid spending during an economic crisis is clearly a difficult proposition — as, apparently, is any substantive debate about international relations in general.</p>
<p>But sooner or later all of these issues will come back to the top of New Zealand’s political agenda. At which time voters will discover just how equipped the next parliament is to meet those challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>COVID-19 has all but wiped foreign policy from the election debate, but a world still in crisis awaits the winner of the general election.Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.