tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/pipelines-44766/articlesPipelines – The Conversation2024-01-08T21:40:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205192024-01-08T21:40:21Z2024-01-08T21:40:21ZCanada’s Impact Assessment Act must be both Constitutional and ensure a sustainable future<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadas-impact-assessment-act-must-be-both-constitutional-and-ensure-a-sustainable-future" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Behind closed doors in Ottawa, Canadian government officials are drafting amendments to their advanced but controversial 2019 <a href="https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/i-2.75/index.html">Impact Assessment Act</a>, the country’s main tool for assessing major projects that can include big dams, pipelines and mines.</p>
<p>It’s a difficult assignment. For practical and political reasons, they need to work quickly. But they face a longstanding dilemma — how to respect Canada’s venerable Constitution while also applying new knowledge and acting on new imperatives.</p>
<p>The law needs to be amended because, in an <a href="https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/20102/index.do">October 2023 ruling</a>, the Supreme Court of Canada found key components to be unconstitutional. </p>
<p>Proposed projects being reviewed under the Impact Assessment Act — <a href="https://iaac-aeic.gc.ca/050/evaluations/exploration?active=true&showMap=false&document_type=project">ranging from gold mines to an airport</a> — have often been <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/supreme-court-simpact-assessment-act-unconstitutional">lightning rods for controversy</a>. How they are assessed and what gets considered in decision-making — especially on whether projects are approved (usually with conditions) or rejected (rarely) — can have major consequences for generations to come.</p>
<p>But most of the projects identified for assessment under the federal law are undertaken in one or more provinces and can involve at least as much provincial as federal jurisdiction.</p>
<h2>Big concerns overlooked</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/">Constitution of Canada</a> was adopted in 1867 and updated modestly in 1982 with subsequent clarifications in high court rulings. </p>
<p>It divides powers and responsibilities, assigning some — like fisheries and navigation — to the federal government and others, including most natural resources, to the provinces. Areas of concern that overlap or weren’t recognized in either 1867 or 1982 — like the environment and sustainability, respectively — are problematic.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.scc-csc.ca/case-dossier/cb/2023/40195-eng.aspx">reference case decided in October 2023</a>, a majority of the Supreme Court justices concluded that important Impact Assessment Act provisions, including those on what matters are addressed in federal assessment decision-making, reach too far into provincial jurisdiction.</p>
<p>The amendments now being drafted are aimed at pulling back the overreach for cases involving major matters of provincial jurisdiction. </p>
<p>Unfortunately for the amendment drafters, the constitutionally focused approach outlined in the Supreme Court’s ruling is at odds with the core understandings and objectives of the current act. It also relies on a conception of assessment law that is no longer tenable. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-supreme-court-case-could-decide-the-future-of-canadian-climate-policy-202233">How a Supreme Court case could decide the future of Canadian climate policy</a>
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<h2>Favouring the old way</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court’s suggested approach has two core steps. </p>
<p>First, narrow the agenda of impact assessment to focus on mitigating the adverse environmental effects of proposed projects. </p>
<p>Second, assign responsibility for addressing particular effects according to whether they are within established federal jurisdiction or provincial jurisdiction. </p>
<p>The result would preserve what is, at least according to the court majority, the balanced division of federal and provincial powers and responsibilities set in the Constitution. But whatever the merits may be from a constitutional law perspective, the approach recommended by the Supreme Court would return assessment law and practice to a world that no longer really exists.</p>
<p>When assessment requirements were introduced in the 1970s, a focus on mitigating significant adverse environmental effects was defensible. In today’s world of worsening climate change and deepening unsustainability, mitigation is far from enough. </p>
<p>Canada and the rest of the world are wrestling with how to reverse the trajectories of global warming, biodiversity loss and conflict-inducing inequities. The core challenges are not merely to reduce additional damage, but to achieve long-term transformations to <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">non-fossil energy</a>, <a href="https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/">restorative ecology</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/circular_economy_14_march.pdf">a circular economy</a> and <a href="https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals/reduced-inequalities">equitable distribution</a>. </p>
<p>We also now know that unsustainable trajectories interact, as do all other assessment concerns and opportunities. All are <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1258832">linked in complex social-ecological systems</a> that influence each other continuously at multiple scales. </p>
<h2>The strengths of the existing law</h2>
<p>Splitting assessment components into constitutional silos is not viable in a world of these interactions. On the contrary, such an approach would return us to the pre-assessment world of piecemeal regulatory licensing.</p>
<p>In contrast to earlier federal assessment law, the Impact Assessment Act includes mitigation of adverse effects within a bigger, more demanding and realistic agenda. </p>
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<p>It moves the core objective of assessment from merely reducing additional damage to seeking positive contributions to sustainability. </p>
<p>It establishes a largely open process for integrated decision-making in the public interest, covering social, economic health and environmental impacts and their interactions. And it requires attention to Indigenous rights, environmental obligations and climate commitments. </p>
<p>All these overlap with provincial powers and responsibilities. They should be top priorities for all levels of government hoping to leave a viable world for our grandchildren. </p>
<p>They also come as a package. They are deeply entwined matters of concern and opportunity best understood and addressed together. </p>
<h2>What the amendments must prioritize</h2>
<p>For the drafters of amendments to the Impact Assessment Act, then, the challenge is not only to bring the law into constitutional compliance. It is to craft a constitutionally compliant law that also meets 21st-century needs for assessments and decision-making in the lasting public interest. </p>
<p>Accomplishing that may require some creativity. Certainly, it will entail reinforcing the law’s integrated sustainability agenda. </p>
<p>That requires allowing specified compromises only for decision-making on projects primarily in provincial jurisdiction, expanding collaborative assessments among federal, provincial and Indigenous authorities and increasing the emphasis on broader assessments that address regional and strategic issues and options. </p>
<p>Beyond any immediate changes, the lessons of this case should spur exploration of more positive ways to respect federal, provincial and Indigenous authority by favouring co-operation and empowering, rather than dividing and restricting, responsible decision-making.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert B. Gibson has funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada for work on next generation assessment. He is also a member of the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada's Technical Advisory Committee on Science and Knowledge.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that the federal Impact Assessment Act needs amendments for Constitutional compliance, but the court’s recommended approach is no longer viable.Robert B. Gibson, Professor of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089232023-08-16T12:26:33Z2023-08-16T12:26:33ZMichigan pipeline standoff could affect water protection and Indigenous rights across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542481/original/file-20230813-175390-x00yus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4446%2C2884&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A ferry arrives at Mackinac Island in the Straits of Mackinac, Michigan's largest tourist draw.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Travel-Trip-MackinacIsland/9896e61c897e4175ba9ce529bd127562/photo">AP Photo/Anick Jesdanun</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Should states and Indigenous nations be able to influence energy projects they view as harmful or contrary to their laws and values? This question lies at the center of a heated debate over <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/egle/about/featured/line5/overview">Enbridge Energy’s Line 5 pipeline</a>, which carries oil and natural gas across Wisconsin and Michigan. </p>
<p>Courts, regulatory agencies and political leaders are deciding whether Enbridge should be allowed to keep its pipeline in place for another 99 years, with upgrades. The state of Michigan and the <a href="http://www.badriver-nsn.gov/">Bad River Tribe</a> in Wisconsin want to <a href="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/MIEOG/2020/11/13/file_attachments/1600920/Notice%20of%20%20Revocation%20and%20Termination%20of%20%20Easement%20%2811.13.20%29.pdf">close the pipeline down immediately</a>.</p>
<p>My expertise is in Great Lakes water and energy policy, environmental protection and sustainability leadership. I have analyzed and taught these issues as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YKC4V5gAAAAJ&hl=en">sustainability scholar</a>, and I have worked on them as the National Wildlife Federation’s <a href="https://nwf.org/greatlakes">Great Lakes regional executive director</a> from 2015 until early 2023. </p>
<p>In my view, the future of Line 5 has become a defining issue for the future of the Great Lakes region. It also could set an important precedent for reconciling energy choices with state regulatory authority and Native American rights.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OCW6fiNSXjs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tribal leaders and Native community members explain what the Straits of Mackinac mean to their cultures.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A Canadian pipeline through the US Midwest</h2>
<p>Line 5, built in 1953, runs 643 miles from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario. It carries up to 23 million gallons of oil and natural gas liquids daily, produced mainly from <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/tar-sand">Canadian tar sands in Alberta</a>. </p>
<p>Most of this oil and gas goes to refineries in Ontario and Quebec. Some remains in the U.S. for propane production or processing at refineries in Michigan and Ohio.</p>
<p>Controversy over Line 5 centers mainly on two locations: the Bad River Band Reservation in Wisconsin, where the pipeline crosses tribal land, and the Straits of Mackinac (pronounced “Mackinaw”) in Michigan. This channel between Michigan’s upper and lower peninsulas connects Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the Line 5 route across Wisconsin and Michigan and through the Straits of Mackinac." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario, is part of a larger regional pipeline network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/line-5-michigan/about-line-5">Enbridge</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Line 5 crosses through the open water of the straits in twin pipelines that rest on the lake bottom in some stretches and are suspended above it in others. The route lies within an easement <a href="http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/michigan/files/201409/1953-04-23_Lakehead_Pipe_Line_Company_Easement_through_the_Straits_of_Mackinac.pdf">granted by the state of Michigan in 1953</a>. </p>
<p>The Straits of Mackinac are one of the most iconic settings in the Great Lakes. They include <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/the-straits-of-mackinac-connecting-people-places-and-so-much-more-msg20-nelson20">hundreds of islands and miles of shorelines</a> rimmed with forests and wetlands. Scenic Mackinac Island in Lake Huron, a <a href="https://www.michigan.org/city/mackinac-island">popular resort area</a> since the mid-1800s, is Michigan’s top tourist destination. </p>
<p>The straits also have long been <a href="https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/travel/michigan/2017/03/07/restoring-mackinac-islands-native-american-history/98809484/">spiritually important for Great Lakes tribes</a>. Michigan acknowledges that the Chippewa and Ottawa peoples <a href="https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2021/03/treaty-rights-line-5-oil-pipelines-controversial-history/">hold treaty-protected fishing rights</a> that center on the Mackinac region.</p>
<h2>The Line 6b spill</h2>
<p>In 2010, another Enbridge pipeline, Line 6b, <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/2020/07/10-years-ago-kalamazoo-river-oil-spill-was-an-awakening-in-pipeline-debate.html">ruptured near the Kalamazoo River in southern Michigan</a>, spilling over 1 million gallons of heavy crude. Line 6b is part of a parallel route to Line 5, and the cleanup continues <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/10-years-later-kalamazoo-river-spill-still-colors-enbridge-pipeline">more than a decade later</a>. </p>
<p>The spill, and Enbridge’s <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26062012/dilbit-diluted-bitumen-enbridge-kalamazoo-river-marshall-michigan-oil-spill-6b-pipeline-epa/">slow, bungled response and lack of transparency</a>, led to scrutiny of other Enbridge pipelines, <a href="https://www.nwf.org/%7E/media/pdfs/regional/great-lakes/nwf_sunkenhazard.ashx">including Line 5</a>.</p>
<p>In a 2014 analysis, University of Michigan oceanographer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wWTpqmEAAAAJ&hl=en">David J. Schwab</a> concluded that the Straits of Mackinac were the <a href="https://news.umich.edu/straits-of-mackinac-worst-possible-place-for-a-great-lakes-oil-spill-u-m-researcher-concludes/">“worst possible place</a>” for a Great Lakes oil spill because of high-speed currents that were unpredictable and reversed frequently. Within 20 days of a spill, Schwab estimated, oil could be carried up to 50 miles (80 kilometers) from the site into Lakes Michigan and Huron, fouling drinking water intakes, beaches and other critical areas.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This animated video created by David J. Schwab of the University of Michigan Water Center shows how an oil spill beneath the Straits of Mackinac could spread within the first 20 days.</span></figcaption>
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<p>This and other research intensified a burgeoning advocacy campaign by pipeline opponents, including <a href="https://www.oilandwaterdontmix.org/">regional and national environmental organizations</a>, <a href="https://earthjustice.org/feature/bay-mills-fighting-the-good-fight-to-protect-the-great-lakes-line-5-enbridge">Indigenous leaders and advocates</a>, and a newly formed network of <a href="https://glbusinessnetwork.com/">local and regional businesses</a>. </p>
<p>Pipeline supporters include the <a href="https://www.api.org/">American Petroleum Institute</a> and others in the fossil fuel industry, many <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/11/15/enbridge-line-5-shutdown-not-soon/6369707001/">conservative lawmakers</a>, several key <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-canada-pipelines-activists-idUSKBN2A11ED">labor unions</a> and the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-wisconsin-line-5-pipeline-1.6565809">government of Canada</a>. They argue that the current pipeline is safe, violates no federal laws and is a key piece of infrastructure that helps keep <a href="https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/line-5-michigan/about-line-5">energy costs low</a>.</p>
<h2>Michigan revokes its easement</h2>
<p>After years of scrutiny, including the formation of the <a href="https://mipetroleumpipelines.org/">Michigan Pipeline Safety Advisory Board</a> and two <a href="https://mipetroleumpipelines.org/document/independent-risk-analysis-straits-pipelines-final-report">expert reports</a> commissioned by the state, analyses showed that Enbridge was <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/2017/06/line_5_unsupported_spans.html">violating provisions of its easement</a>. Most notably, the section of Line 5 that ran under the straits lacked proper anchors and coating, <a href="https://michiganlcv.org/line5/">increasing the threat of a rupture</a>. The state concluded that the easement <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/public_trust_doctrine#:%7E:text=Public%20trust%20doctrine%20is%20a,waters%2C%20wildlife%2C%20or%20land.">violated the public trust doctrine</a> – the idea that government should protect certain natural resources, including waterways, for public use.</p>
<p>State reports concluded that the highest risk for rupture was from <a href="https://mipetroleumpipelines.org/document/independent-risk-analysis-straits-pipelines-final-report">anchor strikes</a>. Environmental nongovernment organizations found that Line 5 had already leaked <a href="https://www.nwf.org/-/media/Documents/PDFs/Press-Releases/2020/11-20-20-Line-5-Report">more than 1 million gallons</a> of oil and natural gas liquids. On April 1, 2018, a boat anchor struck the pipeline and <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/05/15/mackinac-enbridge-oil-pipeline-anchor-damage/3679013002/">nearly ruptured it</a>, temporarily shutting it down. </p>
<p>In 2019, Gov. Rick Snyder was succeeded by Gretchen Whitmer, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/14/gretchen-whitmer-enbridge-line-5-pipeline-mackinac-time-bomb/">who pledged in her campaign to close Line 5</a>. Seeking to avert a shutdown, Enbridge proposed building a tunnel beneath the lake bed to <a href="https://www.michiganradio.org/environment-science/2018-12-19/mackinac-straits-corridor-authority-approves-enbridge-tunnel-agreements">protect the pipeline</a>.</p>
<p>But after more analysis and <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/06/19/whitmer-line-5-shut-down-after-significant-damage-anchor-support/3225987001/">another anchor strike</a> that temporarily shut down the pipeline again, Whitmer issued an order in November 2020 <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/11/enbridge-line-5-ordered-shut-down-by-michigan-gov-whitmer.html">revoking Enbridge’s easement</a> and giving the company six months to close Line 5. The state <a href="https://casetext.com/case/michigan-v-enbridge-energy-ltd-pship">sought a court order</a> to support its decision.</p>
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<h2>Challenging state and tribal authority</h2>
<p>Instead of accepting state orders, <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/enbridge-michigan-we-wont-shut-down-line-5">Enbridge resisted</a>. The company argued that Michigan lacked authority to tell it how to manage the pipeline; that the project had not required an easement in 1953; and that building the tunnel would mitigate any risks. </p>
<p>Enbridge <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DJAw1cNSvCRGxOwJlFl5-U95VVr1jbSV/view">sued Michigan in federal court</a>, arguing that pipeline safety regulation was a federal issue and that the state had no authority to intervene in what was essentially <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMuK5LDlsF4">international commerce</a>.</p>
<p>Enbridge also faced pressure from the <a href="http://www.badriver-nsn.gov/">Bad River Tribe</a> in Wisconsin, where some 12 miles of the pipeline runs through the Bad River Band reservation and across the Bad River. Enbridge’s easement on parts of the reservation expired in 2013, and in 2017 the tribal council <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16012017/dakota-access-pipeline-standing-rock-enbridge-line-5-native-american-protest/">voted to evict Enbridge from their land</a>, calling the pipeline a threat to the river and their culture. </p>
<p>When Enbridge continued operating Line 5, the tribe <a href="https://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/7-23-19_lawsuit.pdf">sued the company in federal court</a> in 2019, charging it with trespass, unjust enrichment and other offenses, and sought to get the pipeline closed. </p>
<p>Today, Michigan’s case against Enbridge is <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/ag/news/press-releases/2023/03/03/attorney-general-nessel-asks-court-of-appeals-to-move-enbridge-case-back-to-michigan">bogged down in jurisdictional battles</a>. But on June 16, 2023, the federal judge overseeing the Bad River case <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/bad-river-vs-enbridge-pipeline-lawsuit-decision.pdf">ruled largely in favor of the tribe</a> and ordered Enbridge to stop operating the pipeline on tribal land within three years. Enbridge vowed to appeal the ruling, but is also seeking permits for a <a href="https://www.wpr.org/judge-orders-enbridge-shut-down-part-wisconsin-oil-pipeline-3-years">41-mile reroute</a> of Line 5 around the reservation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trudeau and Biden shake hands at the entrance to a stone building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, shown welcoming U.S. President Joe Biden to Ottawa on March 24, 2023, strongly supports Line 5, which carries Canadian oil and gas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenCanada/9c3b7f736a704947b4fc2b08c25532f6/photo">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A national precedent</h2>
<p>Line 5 is more than a Midwest issue. It has become a focus for <a href="https://narf.org/bay-mills-line5-pipeline/">national activism</a> and is a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-10/why-a-flowing-pipeline-has-canada-michigan-at-odds-quicktake?sref=Hjm5biAW">major diplomatic issue</a> between Canada and the U.S.
President Joe Biden, who has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/08/974365298/biden-faces-balancing-act-advancing-clean-energy-alongside-labor-allies">worked to balance</a> his ties with organized labor and his support for a clean energy transition, has avoided taking a side to date. </p>
<p>To continue operating Line 5, Enbridge will have to convince the courts that its interests and legal arguments outweigh those of an Indigenous nation and the state of Michigan. Never before has an active fossil fuel pipeline been closed due to potential environmental and cultural damage. </p>
<p>The outcome could set a precedent for other pipeline and fossil fuel infrastructure battles, from the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/27/supreme-court-mountain-valley-pipeline/">mid-Atlantic</a> to the <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2023/07/20/tcenergy-gtn-pipeline-expansion-northwest-climate-change/">Pacific Coast</a>. Ultimately, in my view, Line 5 is an under-the-radar but critical proxy battle for how, when and under what authority the phasing out of fossil fuels will proceed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Shriberg previously served from 2015-2022 as the Great Lakes Regional Executive Director for the National Wildlife Federation, where his position included grant and donor funding to work on issues related to the Line 5 pipeline. He also served as a gubernatorial appointee under former Gov. Rick Snyder to the Michigan Pipeline Safety Advisory Board.</span></em></p>A pipeline that has carried Canadian oil and gas across Wisconsin and Michigan for 70 years has become a symbol of fossil fuel politics and a test of local regulatory power.Mike Shriberg, Professor of Practice & Engagement, School for Environment & Sustainability, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071642023-06-08T12:30:43Z2023-06-08T12:30:43ZWill faster federal reviews speed up the clean energy shift? Two legal scholars explain what the National Environmental Policy Act does and doesn’t do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530445/original/file-20230606-19-c60dar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C3%2C2396%2C1589&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NEPA requires federal agencies to analyze environmental impacts of projects like interstate highway construction.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/big-dig-workers-work-in-the-area-of-ft-point-on-the-route-news-photo/114791218">John Bohn/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The National Environmental Policy Act, enacted in 1970, is widely viewed as a <a href="https://www.eli.org/land-biodiversity/national-environmental-policy-act-nepa">keystone U.S. environmental law</a>. For any major federal action that affects the environment, such as building an interstate highway or licensing a nuclear power plant, NEPA requires relevant agencies to analyze environmental impacts, consider reasonable alternatives and accept public input. It also allows citizens to sue if they believe government has not complied.</em> </p>
<p><em>Critics argue that NEPA reviews <a href="https://www.aei.org/articles/reform-of-the-national-environmental-policy-act/">delay projects and drive up costs</a>. In May 2023 negotiations over raising the federal debt ceiling, President Joe Biden agreed to certain <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/05/28/background-press-call-on-the-bipartisan-budget-agreement/">changes to NEPA reviews</a>, which both the White House and congressional Republicans said would streamline permitting for infrastructure projects. Legal scholars <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=x0K9avIAAAAJ&hl=en">J.B. Ruhl</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qD5L-u0AAAAJ&hl=en">James Salzman</a> explain these changes and what they mean for protecting the environment and expanding clean energy production.</em></p>
<h2>What kinds of projects typically require NEPA reviews?</h2>
<p>The statutory text of NEPA is quite sparse and open-ended. When people speak of what NEPA requires, they really are talking about how the White House <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ceq/">Council on Environmental Quality</a>, or CEQ, federal agencies and the courts have implemented the law over the past 50 years. </p>
<p>The simple requirement is for agencies to create a detailed statement on the impacts of any major federal action that significantly affects the environment. A whole body of law and policy creates filters that sort projects into different NEPA buckets. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">NEPA requires all federal agencies to analyze the environmental impacts of their major actions, consider alternatives and receive public comment.</span></figcaption>
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<p>First, only projects that will be carried out, funded or authorized by a federal agency are subject to NEPA. That’s a pretty big universe, but it also excludes a lot. For example, a wind farm built on private land by a private utility might not require any federal funding or approval. That means it wouldn’t be subject to NEPA. </p>
<p>If a project is subject to NEPA, the federal agency that has primary oversight assesses its impacts to decide how much analysis is needed. Many agencies use a classification known as <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/nepa-practice/categorical-exclusions.html">categorical exclusions</a> to winnow out minor actions that they know have no significant impacts, either individually or cumulatively. For example, the Interior Department categorically excludes planned burns to clear brush on <a href="https://bianepatracker2.doi.gov/doi_and_bureau_categorical_exclusions.pdf">areas smaller than 4,500 acres</a>. </p>
<p>If the expected impacts are more extensive, but it’s not clear by how much, the agency can prepare an environmental assessment. If that assessment finds the impacts to the human environment will not be significant, that’s the end of the NEPA process. </p>
<p>If the impacts are significant, the agency will prepare a <a href="https://cdxapps.epa.gov/cdx-enepa-II/public/action/eis/search;jsessionid=A75C26C6A17A75907053FA67AC41B7AE?search=&__fsk=2062199394#results">full-blown environmental impact statement</a>, or EIS, which is a far more intensive process. <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/laws-regulations/regulations.html">CEQ guidelines</a> establish an elaborate template of topics agencies must evaluate, and the public has opportunities to comment on a draft version. </p>
<p>A CEQ review of EISs prepared by all federal agencies from 2010 through 2018 found that, on average, it took <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/docs/nepa-practice/CEQ_EIS_Timeline_Report_2020-6-12.pdf">about four and a half years</a> to issue an EIS, not including added time if someone sued. The lengths of these reviews ranged widely but <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/docs/nepa-practice/CEQ_EIS_Length_Report_2020-6-12.pdf">averaged 575 pages</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Flow chart showing numerous steps in the NEPA process." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530618/original/file-20230607-15-xre1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A schematic of the NEPA process.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/agency/nepa/process.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If an agency conducts lots of the same actions under a particular program, such as timber leasing on federal land, it might conduct a high-level programmatic EIS to cover the large-scale issues and then follow up with individual NEPA analyses for specific projects. </p>
<p>Decisions not to issue an EIS can be challenged in court. So can the EIS itself if critics believe that it’s inadequate.</p>
<h2>What are NEPA critics’ central arguments?</h2>
<p>Critiques of NEPA come from many different interests. The law mainly affects land development, industry and resource extraction activities such as logging, mining and drilling for oil and gas, particularly on federal public lands. </p>
<p>NEPA requires an impact assessment, but it doesn’t prescribe any particular outcome. Still, it unquestionably can add substantial time and cost to any significant project. If a project is controversial, interested parties can submit public comments that get their views on the record. If opponents aren’t happy with the final EIS, they can sue the agency responsible for the decision in federal court. </p>
<p>Between agency review and litigation, NEPA can add many years to a project’s development timeline before it is “shovel ready.” For example, it takes <a href="https://www.perc.org/2022/06/14/does-environmental-review-worsen-the-wildfire-crisis/">roughly four to seven years</a> to complete environmental reviews for prescribed burns that the U.S. Forest Service carries out to reduce wildfire risks.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1651944242137145344"}"></div></p>
<p>Supporters argue that NEPA reviews have <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/resources/never-eliminate-public-advice-nepa-success-stories">avoided many bad decisions</a>. In our view, the NEPA process is an important feature of the country’s stewardship of its natural resources. But we also share the growing concern that it can be used to <a href="https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1654456917081595905">delay building renewable energy infrastructure</a> that the U.S. urgently needs to mitigate climate change. </p>
<h2>Did the debt ceiling agreement significantly change the NEPA process?</h2>
<p>Many of the changes are little more than tweaks. Others codify long-standing practices based on how the Council on Environmental Quality, agencies and courts implement the law. </p>
<p>One notable change is requiring a single lead agency and a single environmental impact statement for projects, even when those projects require multiple agency approvals. There also are some new time and page limits. For example, environmental impact statements will be required to be completed within two years and be no more that 150 pages long for most projects, and 300 pages for the most complex projects. </p>
<p>There also are some changes to definitions, such as what constitutes a “major federal action,” that narrow NEPA’s scope to some degree, although it will take time to sort out their meaning. Overall, we do not see these changes as a major overhaul of NEPA. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dredge deposits crushed shells off a floating platform." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530437/original/file-20230606-19-3i9hzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers places crushed shells in Maryland’s Tred Avon River as part of efforts to restore the Chesapeake Bay’s historic oyster reefs. After a 2009 NEPA review spotlighted risks associated with the proposed use of disease-resistant imported Chinese oysters, native oysters were used instead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/QosdpW">Sean Fritzges, U.S. Army/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will the changes speed up work on clean energy systems?</h2>
<p>Maybe, but not nearly as much as needed. First, NEPA applies to projects that need federal funding or approval, such as under the Endangered Species Act. Getting that money or agency green light can also involve delays and litigation independent of the NEPA review.</p>
<p>Second, many state and local laws can affect large renewable energy projects, and those statutes can also be used to slow projects down. The bottom line is that to move the needle, politicians will have to do more to reform the project review process.</p>
<p>The debt ceiling agreement left several big questions unaddressed. They include <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-needs-a-macrogrid-to-move-electricity-from-areas-that-make-it-to-areas-that-need-it-155938">where to build high-voltage electric transmission lines</a>; which <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-outlines-roadmap-continued-renewable-energy-progress-public-lands">federal public lands and offshore waters</a> can be used for power lines and renewable power production; and where to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-worried-about-its-critical-minerals-supply-chains-essential-for-electric-vehicles-wind-power-and-the-nations-defense-157465">mine for essential minerals</a>.
Beyond those immediate priorities, if carbon sequestration technology can be developed and scaled up, the U.S. will need an enormous <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-carbon-capture-and-storage-epas-new-power-plant-standards-proposal-gives-it-a-boost-but-ccs-is-not-a-quick-solution-205462">buildout of carbon capture and storage infrastructure</a> to meet net-zero goals. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">As renewable energy scales up in the U.S., local opposition could impede some utility-scale projects.</span></figcaption>
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<p>All of these involve incredibly complex permitting processes, and tweaking NEPA won’t change that. Other hot-button issues – including federal preemption of state and local laws, impacts on Native American cultural lands, and environmental justice – will make further permitting reforms politically difficult. </p>
<p>Even this first small measure was hotly contested, and happened now only because it was tied to the debt limit legislation. As the inclusion of federal approval for the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/31/debt-deal-mountain-valley-pipeline/">Mountain Valley gas pipeline</a> in the debt ceiling agreement shows, in politics you need a quid in exchange for a quo. We expect to see a lot more deal-making if Congress takes permitting reform seriously.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.B. Ruhl is Of Counsel to Smith-Robertson, a law firm located in Austin, Texas that occasionally provides Endangered Species Act, NEPA, and other environmental compliance counseling to infrastructure development projects, including wind power production facilities. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Salzman serves on the board of the Environmental Defense Center, an environmental advocacy group on the central coast of California.</span></em></p>Do environmental reviews improve projects or delay them and drive up costs? Two legal scholars explain how the law works and how it could influence the ongoing transition to renewable energy.J.B. Ruhl, Professor of Law, Director, Program on Law and Innovation, and Co-director, Energy, Environment and Land Use Program, Vanderbilt UniversityJames Salzman, Professor of Environmental Law, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022332023-04-13T21:14:26Z2023-04-13T21:14:26ZHow a Supreme Court case could decide the future of Canadian climate policy<p>On the heels of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report</a> declaring a “rapidly closing window of opportunity” to secure a liveable future, the Supreme Court of Canada recently <a href="https://scc-csc.ca/case-dossier/info/sum-som-eng.aspx?cas=40195">heard a case</a> that could decide the future of Canadian climate policy.</p>
<p>Late last year, the <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ab/abca/doc/2022/2022abca165/2022abca165.html?autocompleteStr=Impact&autocompletePos=2">Alberta Court of Appeal said</a> the federal <a href="https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/i-2.75/index.html">Impact Assessment Act</a> — which seeks to minimize the environmental impacts of major economic projects — was unconstitutional because it intruded into provincial jurisdiction over natural resources development.</p>
<p>The federal government, on March 21 and 22, asked the Supreme Court of Canada to overturn the Alberta Court of Appeal’s opinion.</p>
<p>While we have to wait a year for its decision, the Supreme Court’s position is already clear — a majority of the court is poised to overturn the Alberta court’s opinion and uphold the Impact Assessment Act. The implications of the Supreme Court’s decision for <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-new-climate-plan-is-reckless-but-a-better-way-forward-is-still-possible-180846">Canadian climate policy</a>, however, are more complicated.</p>
<h2>The politics of climate change</h2>
<p>The Impact Assessment Act became law in 2019. It replaced the controversial Canadian Environmental Assessment Act of 2012, which <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2104336">gutted the federal government’s ability to rigorously assess the adverse effects of economic projects</a> on the environment.</p>
<p>But the Impact Assessment Act has proven to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/kill-bill-c-69-it-undermines-efforts-to-tackle-climate-change-105118">no less controversial</a>. Its opponents have dubbed it the “<a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/alberta-ottawa-supreme-court-pipeline-law">no more pipelines law</a>” because of fears that the federal government will use it to block fossil fuel development. The express purposes of the law include fostering sustainability, mitigating climate change and incorporating Indigenous knowledge when assessing the impacts of major economic projects across Canada.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Woodland Cree First Nation backed the ruling that found Ottawa’s Impact Assessment Act ‘unconstitutional.’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2020, Alberta’s provincial government asked its Court of Appeal to provide an opinion on the constitutionality of the federal law. A 4:1 majority found it unconstitutional. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ab/abca/doc/2022/2022abca165/2022abca165.html?autocompleteStr=Impact&autocompletePos=2">The court accepted Alberta’s argument</a> that the law would allow the federal government to conduct far-ranging inquiries into matters assigned exclusively to the provinces, including oil and gas. </p>
<p>This means that if a proposed oil project impacted even just one area of federal jurisdiction, say migratory birds, the federal government could assess all of the project’s impacts well beyond migratory birds, including broad and controversial issues like greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability. </p>
<p>The Alberta court acknowledged the existential threat of climate change. But it insisted the Impact Assessment Act is an equally important “existential threat” to the federal-provincial division of powers in Canada. </p>
<h2>The hearing before the Supreme Court</h2>
<p>The crux of the case before the Supreme Court now is thus a federal-provincial dispute over which level of government will determine Canada’s response to climate change. It’s a public policy dispute in the guise of complex constitutional law.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1524252977070063618"}"></div></p>
<p>Judges on the court’s panel who are sympathetic to Alberta’s argument worry the federal government will use the law to regulate natural resources and greenhouse gas emissions, effectively overriding provincial control. </p>
<p>Even those judges who appear to favour the federal government worry the Impact Assessment Act is really just an end-run around the <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/18781/index.do">court’s recent decision on the federal government’s limited authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions via carbon pricing</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the majority of the Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-what-a-justices-leave-of-absence-reveals-about-politics-and-the/">panel of seven judges</a> suggested a number of ways to interpret the law more narrowly. For example, the court suggested a requirement that the federal government’s power under the law be proportional to the project’s impacts on defined areas of federal jurisdiction. This will help preserve the balance of shared federal and provincial responsibility over the environment. </p>
<h2>It’s all about politics</h2>
<p>There’s no single correct legal answer to this case. There are compelling — but incomplete — legal arguments in favour of both sides. The decision will boil down to politics.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court will be loath to give either the federal government or Alberta a complete victory. Five of the court’s seven judges presiding over this case clearly see a constitutional path to salvaging the federal Impact Assessment Act by limiting its scope. This would preserve the provinces’ role in regulating the natural resources within their borders. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-case-on-carbon-price-is-about-climate-change-not-the-constitution-146471">The Supreme Court has long held</a> that both levels of government must protect the environment. Its preference is for federal-provincial co-operation, not conflict. As promising as that sounds, it isn’t enough. We need to first understand whether the Impact Assessment Act will help Canada become more sustainable or not, a question that did not come up once during the Supreme Court hearing. </p>
<p>While several environmental groups supported the federal act, many of those same organizations gave it a “<a href="https://ecojustice.ca/news/environmental-groups-give-federal-impact-assessment-act-a-c-grade/">C- grade</a>” when it was introduced in 2018. </p>
<p>The law’s shortcomings included a failure to recognize Indigenous authority, the lack of any requirement to ensure that economic projects contribute to sustainability, a limited scope for assessing smaller projects and their cumulative effects and a lack of clear criteria and accountability for decision-making. It <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349150751_Regulatory_Capture_and_the_Role_of_Academics_in_Public_Policymaking_Lessons_from_Canada%27s_Environmental_Regulatory_Review_Process">hasn’t improved since</a>. </p>
<p>But a law’s ineffectiveness isn’t legally relevant to its constitutionality. A majority of the Supreme Court’s panel of judges will uphold a narrower interpretation of the federal government’s authority under the law to preserve shared federal-provincial jurisdiction over the environment.</p>
<p>Indeed, the court will remind Canadians that both levels of government are accountable for climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainability. But its role does not require it to say anything about how our governments choose to meet their responsibility.</p>
<p>In the end, only Canadians themselves can truly compel the federal and provincial governments to act immediately and effectively before our window of opportunity to secure a liveable future closes. To do so, they must actively participate in climate politics, collectively organize and demand governments to lead the way towards <a href="https://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1000&context=scholarly_works">ecological sustainability</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Jason MacLean is a member of the board of directors of the Pacific Centre for Environmental Law and Litigation (CELL), and East Coast Environmental Law (ECELAW). He is also an adjunct professor in the School of Environment and Sustainability at the University of Saskatchewan.</span></em></p>Canada’s federal Impact Assessment Act seeks to minimize the environmental impacts of major economic projects. Will the Supreme Court uphold the act?Jason MacLean, Assistant Professor of Law, University of New BrunswickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1987952023-02-13T19:12:08Z2023-02-13T19:12:08ZThe real price of gas: massive Santos pipeline would destroy rare native grasslands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509398/original/file-20230210-23-egg809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5455%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian oil and gas giant Santos wants to build an 833-kilometre gas pipeline stretching from southern Queensland to Newcastle in New South Wales. <a href="https://huntergaspipeline.com.au/pipeline-route/">Details</a> released by the company show the project would traverse highly productive farmland, as well as valuable native vegetation.</p>
<p>The pipeline would run underground. Even still, the proposed path is a real risk to threatened species and ecological communities, due to the need to <a href="https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=MP06_0286%2120200318T234610.975%20GMT">clear a 30m-wide corridor</a> to install the pipeline.</p>
<p>In January, the NSW government granted Santos <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-01/20230113_Santos_ATS_Instrument_inc_additional_conditions.pdf">authority to survey</a> land along the route, with or without permission from landholders. This brings this massive infrastructure project closer to construction.</p>
<p>Many landscapes along the pipeline’s path are already denuded of <a href="https://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/bd085f40-b435-484e-92f0-9a76640a774a/Cun114457Ben.pdf.aspx">native vegetation</a>. The threatened ecosystems that remain, including native grasslands, must be protected.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people hold sign reading 'no pipelines, no gas fields'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509393/original/file-20230210-28-flh1dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509393/original/file-20230210-28-flh1dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509393/original/file-20230210-28-flh1dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509393/original/file-20230210-28-flh1dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509393/original/file-20230210-28-flh1dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509393/original/file-20230210-28-flh1dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509393/original/file-20230210-28-flh1dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pipeline, opposed by many in the community, would traverse highly productive farmland and valuable native vegetation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Margaret Fleck/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Expanding the gas network across the Liverpool Plains</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map showing proposed pipeline route" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509403/original/file-20230210-16-hqjjws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the proposed pipeline route.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The proposed pipeline route passes close to Santos’ controversial Narrabri Gas Project. The <a href="https://www.santos.com/news/santos-acquires-hunter-gas-pipeline-pty-ltd-to-get-narrabri-gas-to-domestic-market-as-soon-as-possible/">company claims</a> the pipeline will help alleviate gas shortages along Australia’s east coast. </p>
<p>The preferred route for the pipeline runs through the fertile Liverpool Plains, which cover more than 1.2 million hectares of inland northern NSW, near the towns of Gunnedah, Quirindi and Boggabri.</p>
<p>The plains’ deep, alluvial clay soils are <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/cp/pdf/AR07138">renowned for high agricultural productivity</a>. Before European settlement, the plains supported extensive tracts of naturally <a href="https://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/getattachment/Science/Scientific-publications/Cunninghamia/Cunninghamia-10-3-407-Lang-407.pdf.aspx?lang=en-AU">treeless grasslands</a>, dominated by plains grass, native oatgrass and silky browntop.</p>
<p>Most of the grasslands have been cleared for agriculture. It’s estimated that <a href="https://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/bd085f40-b435-484e-92f0-9a76640a774a/Cun114457Ben.pdf.aspx">less than 5% remain</a>. </p>
<p>The grasslands were <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/threatenedspeciesapp/profile.aspx?id=10550">listed as endangered</a> in 2001 in NSW, and as <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicshowcommunity.pl?id=88">critically endangered</a> nationally in 2009. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508189/original/file-20230205-19-m63tuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Native grassland on Liverpool Plains, south-east of Gunnedah. The tall grass is plains grass (<em>Austrostipa aristiglumis</em>).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Curran</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Travelling stock routes and reserves</h2>
<p>The proposed pathway for the pipeline includes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00049182.2019.1682321">travelling stock routes and reserves</a> set aside in the late 1800s. <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/threatenedspeciesapp/profile.aspx?id=10550">Most surviving patches</a> of critically endangered Liverpool Plains grasslands are found along these stock routes.</p>
<p>Yet, Santos has nominated the Pullaming stock route – which runs 25km southeast from near Gunnedah – as a <a href="https://huntergaspipeline.com.au/pipeline-route/">preferred location</a> for the Hunter Gas Pipeline. </p>
<p>This would require <a href="https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=MP06_0286%2120200318T234610.975%20GMT">clearing a 30-metre wide strip</a> along one side of the road, removing 75ha of these critically endangered grasslands (almost 1% of the <a href="https://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/bd085f40-b435-484e-92f0-9a76640a774a/Cun114457Ben.pdf.aspx">estimated 8,000ha remaining</a>).</p>
<p>The extent of the potential damage is detailed in the map and caption below. The green line running southeast from Gunnedah is the narrow strip of native grassland along the Pullaming stock route.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508190/original/file-20230205-15-ix6lu9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=858&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of the Liverpool Plains grasslands prepared by scientists at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Sydney (Allen and Benson, 2012; used with permission). The outer black line shows Liverpool Plains catchment. Inner black line shows estimated naturally treeless grasslands. Grey shows estimated pre-European extent of grasslands. Known remnant stands of grassland are shown in green, purple, light blue, yellow and red. Note the linear nature of many of these stands, reflecting their presence along stock routes, reserves and roadsides.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261216605_Floristic_Composition_of_the_Liverpool_Plains_Grasslands_Report_for_printing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s not just the direct clearing that will impact these grasslands. Adjacent stands will suffer from weed invasion.</p>
<p>Stock routes also provide other cultural and ecological benefits, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>providing <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1442-8903.2011.00591.x">emergency stock feed</a></li>
<li>aiding the conservation of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167880911000922">birds</a>, <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/BT/BT17114">plant communities</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/AM18031">koalas</a></li>
<li><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-8903.2011.00585.x">protecting ecosystems</a> not commonly found in national parks, such as valley flats. </li>
</ul>
<h2>More than ‘minimal impacts’</h2>
<p>The NSW state government approved the pipeline in 2009, and this approval was modified in <a href="https://huntergaspipeline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Hunter-Gas-Pipeline-NSW-Consent.pdf">October 2019</a>. It requires the route to, where possible, avoid endangered ecological communities or have minimal impacts. Where damage does occur, this must be offset by biodiversity gains elsewhere. </p>
<p>The proposed clearing of critically endangered grasslands along the Pullaming stock route is hardly a minimal impact. </p>
<p>Biodiversity offsets involve improving biodiversity in one place to compensate for destruction elsewhere. However, offsets are a very <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/66/6/489/2754298">controversial tool</a> and are likely to lead to further biodiversity loss if <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/523401a">used improperly</a>. </p>
<p>It is much better to <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2822/Report%20No.%2016%20-%20PC%207%20-%20Integrity%20of%20the%20NSW%20Biodiversity%20Offsets%20Scheme.pdf">avoid the destruction of native vegetation</a> in the first place, especially if that vegetation is critically endangered and essentially irreplaceable. It is not yet known whether Santos plans to use biodiversity offsets for this project.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-contentious-nsw-gas-project-is-weeks-away-from-approval-here-are-3-reasons-it-should-be-rejected-144201">A contentious NSW gas project is weeks away from approval. Here are 3 reasons it should be rejected</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A project that’s hard to justify</h2>
<p>The likely destruction of endangered grasslands occurs along just 25km of the 833km pipeline. Other travelling stock routes and native vegetation will be affected elsewhere along the route, further impacting biodiversity. </p>
<p>Based on the preferred pipeline route through the Liverpool Plains, this massive infrastructure project will either extensively damage highly productive farmland, or harm endangered ecological communities, or both of these.</p>
<p>Given this, it’s difficult to see why the project should be allowed to proceed.</p>
<p><em>The Conversation approached Santos for comment but did not receive a statement before the publication deadline. However, the company’s web page about the Hunter Gas Pipeline route says Santos intends to <a href="https://huntergaspipeline.com.au/pipeline-route/">consider the environment</a> as well as landholder preferences and “potential constructability issues” before finalising the exact location of the pipeline and the permanent easement.</em> </p>
<p><em>The company says it is “committed to finding the right balance so that impacts to landholders are minimised, and sensitive areas are protected”.
Santos says the path of the pipeline can still be changed, under existing approvals, if certain conditions are met.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198795/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Curran receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), Fire and Emergency New Zealand, the Miss E L Hellaby Indigenous Grasslands Research Trust, Marlborough District Council, and the Lincoln University Argyle Fund. Tim is the Immediate Past President of the New Zealand Ecological Society.</span></em></p>Critically endangered grasslands and productive farmland in NSW would be cleared to lay the Hunter Gas Pipeline.Tim Curran, Associate Professor of Ecology, Lincoln University, New ZealandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1929182023-01-23T13:25:03Z2023-01-23T13:25:03ZCheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools – here’s how to lower the risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505650/original/file-20230120-26-n0sihx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=132%2C28%2C3201%2C2207&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With many CIPP repairs, this isn't just steam.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Whelton/Purdue University</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Across the U.S., children and adults are increasingly exposed to harmful chemicals from a source few people are even aware of. </p>
<p>It begins on a street outside a home or school, where a worker in a manhole is repairing a sewer pipe. The contractor inserts a <a href="https://youtu.be/rBMOoa2XcJI">resin-soaked sleeve</a> into the buried pipe, then heats it, transforming the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/awwa.1042">resin</a> into a hard plastic pipe. </p>
<p>This is one of the <a href="https://www.stratviewresearch.com/287/Cured-in-Place-Pipe-CIPP-Market.html">cheapest</a>, <a href="https://blogs.cdc.gov/niosh-science-blog/2017/09/26/cipp/">most common</a> pipe repair methods, but it comes with a serious risk: Heating the resin generates harmful fumes that can travel <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2019.02.097">through the sewer lines</a> and into surrounding buildings, sometimes several blocks away.</p>
<p>These chemicals have <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/CIPPSafety/resources/incidents">made hundreds of people ill</a>, forced building evacuations and even led to hospitalizations. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luYH4Vtnx_0">Playgrounds</a>, <a href="https://www.telegram.com/story/news/state/2011/10/28/worcester-day-care-center-evacuated/49854145007">day care centers</a> and schools in several states have been affected, including in <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/CIPPSafety/resources/incidents">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Nathan-Hale-evacuated-will-dismiss-from-Norwalk-14910380.php?_ga=2.128513420.1491261553.1673491226-2096328188.1671464695">Connecticut</a>, <a href="https://www.wickedlocal.com/story/saugus-advertiser/2011/10/26/veterans-school-reopens-thursday/40700819007/">Massachusetts</a>, <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/2011/10/foul_odor_sickens_students_lea.html">Michigan</a>, <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/local/east/2019/09/24/Propel-Schools-Pitcairn-construction-fumes-six-sick-evacuation/stories/201909240139?_ga=2.194591149.1491261553.1673491226-2096328188.1671464695">Pennsylvania</a>, <a href="https://www.columbian.com/news/2018/oct/10/odor-from-sewer-work-causes-teachers-to-get-sick-at-riverview-elementary/">Washington</a> and <a href="https://www.wpr.org/northern-wisconsin-school-remains-closed-after-odor-prompts-dozens-seek-medical-treatment?_ga=2.35917088.1491261553.1673491226-2096328188.1671464695">Wisconsin</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Steam and gases rise out of a sewer manhole." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505622/original/file-20230120-24-7mysjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505622/original/file-20230120-24-7mysjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505622/original/file-20230120-24-7mysjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505622/original/file-20230120-24-7mysjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505622/original/file-20230120-24-7mysjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505622/original/file-20230120-24-7mysjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505622/original/file-20230120-24-7mysjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With this sewer pipe repair method, the chemical waste is blown into the air and can enter buildings through buried sewer pipes, plumbing, foundation cracks, windows, doors and HVAC units.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pubs.acs.org/cms/10.1021/acs.estlett.7b00237/asset/images/large/ez-2017-00237j_0001.jpeg">Andrew Whelton/Purdue University</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the 2022 <a href="https://www.epa.gov/infrastructure/water-infrastructure-investments">Bipartisan Infrastructure Law</a> now sending hundreds of millions of dollars <a href="https://www.epa.gov/infrastructure/2022-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-clean-water-and-drinking-water-state-revolving">into communities across the U.S.</a> to fix broken pipes, the number of children and adults at risk of exposure will likely increase. </p>
<p>For more than a decade, my colleagues and I have worked to <a href="https://www.CIPPSafety.org">understand and reduce the risks</a> of this innovative pipe repair technique. In two new studies, in the <a href="https://www.neha.org/bystander-chemical-exposures-and-injuries">Journal of Environmental Health</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.2c00710">Environmental Science and Technology Letters</a>, we show that workers, and even bystanders, including children, lack adequate protection. </p>
<p>Our research also shows the technology can be used safely if companies take appropriate action.</p>
<h2>Fixing aging pipes with harmful chemicals</h2>
<p>As U.S. water infrastructure ages, communities nationwide are grappling with thousands of broken sewer pipes in their <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/wastewater-infrastructure/#:%7E:text=The%20nation%E2%80%99s%20wastewater%20footprint%20includes%20over%20800%2C000%20miles,sewers%20and%20500%2C000%20miles%20of%20private%20lateral%20sewers.">1.3 million-mile</a> inventory.</p>
<p>The new law <a href="https://www.epa.gov/infrastructure/bipartisan-infrastructure-law-resources-clean-water#:%7E:text=The%20Bipartisan%20Infrastructure%20Law%20is%20a%20once-in-a-generation%20investment,conveyance%2C%20and%20water%20storage%20infrastructure%20in%20American%20history.">provides US$11 billion</a> for sewer fixes, about <a href="https://www.epa.gov/archive/epa/newsreleases/epa-survey-shows-271-billion-needed-nations-wastewater-infrastructure.html">one-fifth of the EPA’s estimate</a> of the need.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A face-on view into a sewer pipe, with a blue lining visible within the outer gray wall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505487/original/file-20230119-22-en6jc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505487/original/file-20230119-22-en6jc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505487/original/file-20230119-22-en6jc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505487/original/file-20230119-22-en6jc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505487/original/file-20230119-22-en6jc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505487/original/file-20230119-22-en6jc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505487/original/file-20230119-22-en6jc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The blue cured-in-place pipe, or CIPP, can be seen inside this damaged storm sewer pipe. The CIPP was created by steam cooking the resin into the hard plastic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Whelton/Purdue University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The least expensive repair method is called <a href="https://youtu.be/rBMOoa2XcJI">cured-in-place pipe, or CIPP</a>. It avoids the need to dig up and replace pipes. Instead, contractors insert <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/awwa.1042">a resin-saturated sleeve</a> in the manhole and through the buried pipe. The resin is then “cooked,” <a href="https://www.stratviewresearch.com/287/Cured-in-Place-Pipe-CIPP-Market.html">typically with steam or hot water</a>, and transformed into a hard plastic.</p>
<p>One challenge is that the resin <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131803">safety data sheets</a> do not disclose all of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2019.02.097">chemicals</a>, and some entirely new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.2c00710">ones</a> are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D0EM00190B">created</a> during heating.</p>
<p>Chemical plumes rising from nearby manholes and contractor exhaust pipes are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.7b00237">not just “steam</a>.” These plumes contain highly concentrated chemical mixtures, uncooked resin, particulates and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41565-022-01219-9">nanoplastics</a> that can harm human health. When we examined the heating process in the lab, we found that as much as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131803">9% of the resin</a> was emitted into the air.</p>
<p>CIPP production is known to discharge about 40 chemicals. Some <a href="https://www.floridahealth.gov/environmental-health/hazardous-waste-sites/_documents/final_fdoh_cipp.pdf?_ga=2.229170844.1491261553.1673491226-2096328188.1671464695">cause</a> nausea, headaches and eye and nasal irritation. They can also lead to vomiting, breathing difficulties and other effects. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l9whaSz5rz0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Waste that contains chemicals, uncooked resin, particulates, and nanoplastics is discharged into the air during CIPP manufacture. This complex emission is not steam. Andrew Whelton/Purdue University.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Styrene, the most frequently documented chemical, is acutely toxic, and “<a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2014/07/styrene-reasonably-anticipated-to-be-a-human-carcinogen-new-report-confirms">reasonably anticipated” to cause cancer</a>, according to the National Research Council. Chemicals other than styrene can be responsible for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08958378.2019.1621966">plume toxicity</a>. </p>
<h2>CIPP-associated illnesses in nearby buildings</h2>
<p>So far, chemical exposures have been reported in at least <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.2c00710">32 states and seven countries</a>. In addition to schools, this process has contaminated <a href="https://www.bendbulletin.com/localstate/woman-plans-to-sue-bend-over-sewer-pipe/article_80382718-3191-57ad-864a-a28e2fb75b19.html">homes</a>, <a href="https://www.wtvr.com/2018/05/22/fan-residents-claim-they-fell-ill-because-of-fumes-from-city-project?_ga=2.112210884.1776755142.1673913806-2032358368.1673913806">restaurants</a>, <a href="https://herald-review.com/news/local/public_safety/cancer-care-center-of-decatur-evacuates-due-to-odor-caused/article_041e3218-81a6-5615-8723-99149edce72a.html">medical</a> <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/health-concerns-mount-as-more-old-sewer-pipes-are-lined-with-plastic1/">facilities</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/chemical-odour-leads-to-hintonburg-home-evacuations-1.2955145">other</a> <a href="https://helenair.com/news/smelly-gas-begins-to-dissipate/article_d305a00e-00d3-11df-8a80-001cc4c002e0.html">businesses</a>. Companies have been cited for exposing their workers to <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/CIPPSafety/resources/OSHA-Region5-CIPP-Fatality-Notification-of-Penalty-2018.pdf">unsafe levels of styrene</a>.</p>
<p>The earliest U.S. incident we know about was in 1993 at an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2019.02.097">animal shelter in Austin, Texas</a>. Seven people were overcome by fumes and transported to a hospital. In 2001, fumes entered a hospital inn <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/archive/2001/04/27/odor-forces-hospital-evacuation/">Tampa, Florida</a>, causing employee breathing problems. Since then, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.126832">hundreds more</a> people are known to have been exposed, and the numbers are likely much higher.</p>
<p>In our experience, exposures are rarely made public. Municipalities have encouraged people <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.estlett.7b00237">affected by the fumes</a> to only contact the CIPP contractor and pipe owner. In some cases, people were told the exposures were always harmless. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1485748694792257540"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"506865406435655680"}"></div></p>
<p>Chemicals <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.126832">can enter buildings</a> through sinks, toilets, foundation cracks, doors, windows and HVAC systems. The chemicals can even enter buildings that have water-filled plumbing traps. Anticipating this risk, bystanders have been told to <a href="https://blog.timesunion.com/bethlehem/9270/bethlehem-installing-new-sewer-lines-without-digging/">cover their toilets</a> and <a href="https://www.kron4.com/news/video-dublin-sewer-construction-project-causes-foul-smell-for-residents/?_ga=2.229692060.1491261553.1673491226-2096328188.1671464695">close all windows and doors</a>.</p>
<p>Wind can help dilute outdoor chemical levels. However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.126832">concentrated plumes</a> can rush through buried pipes into nearby buildings. Bathroom <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.126832">vent fans</a> may sometimes increase the indoor chemical levels. Levels that should prompt firefighters to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.126832">wear respirators</a> have been found in the buried pipes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration shows how fumes can move from the source into homes and buildings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504839/original/file-20230117-16-d5uwp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fumes generated during sewer line repair, on the right, can enter nearby homes, schools and other buildings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Whelton/Purdue University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/2126/">highest levels</a> have been found during and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131803">after the heating process</a>. </p>
<p>Hand-held air testing devices commonly used by some firefighters and contractors <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.2c00710">do not accurately identify</a> specific chemical levels. An <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2019.02.097">earlier study</a> showed the styrene levels were sometimes wrong by a thousandfold.</p>
<h2>How to protect public health</h2>
<p>With the wave of infrastructure projects coming, it’s clear that controls are needed to lower the risk that people will be harmed.</p>
<p>Our research points to several actions that residents, companies and health officials can take to keep communities safe.</p>
<p>We advise residents to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Close all windows and doors, fill plumbing traps with water and leave the building during pipe-curing operations, especially when children are in the building. </p></li>
<li><p>Report unusual odors or illnesses to health officials or call 911. Seek medical advice from health officials, not the contractors or pipe owners. Evacuate buildings when fumes enter. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Companies can minimize risks too. They can:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Stop the cooking process when fumes leave the worksite to lessen the spread of contamination and exposures.</p></li>
<li><p>Use resins that release <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131803">less</a> air pollution than standard resins. </p></li>
<li><p>Ask federal agencies to evaluate hand-held air testing device use.</p></li>
<li><p>Capture and treat air pollution from the process. While this has not yet been done at scale, it is straightforward and would be a fraction of the overall project cost. This waste will be <a href="https://www.epa.gov/rcra">hazardous</a> because of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.7b00237">its</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es5018637">toxicity</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Public health and environmental agencies should also get engaged. Federal agencies <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/CIPPSafety/resources/ATSDR-Contaminated-Office-Building-Investigation-2005.pdf">know</a> that the practice poses health <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/hhe/reports/pdfs/2019-0080-3379.pdf?id=10.26616/NIOSHHHE201900803379#:%7E:text=NIOSH.%20Evaluation%20of%20exposures%20and%20emissions%20during%20cured-in-place,during%20pipe%20repairs%20using%20hot%20water%20and%20steam.">risks</a> and can be <a href="https://www.ehstoday.com/archive/article/21911727/iowa-osha-issues-808000-fine-following-des-moines-drownings">fatal</a> to <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/CIPPSafety/resources/OSHA-Region5-CIPP-Fatality-Notification-of-Penalty-2018.pdf">workers</a>. <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/CIPPSafety/resources/CIPP-Safety-Alert-2020-Update-ADA.pdf">California</a> and <a href="https://www.floridahealth.gov/environmental-health/hazardous-waste-sites/_documents/final_fdoh_cipp.pdf?_ga=2.265943311.1491261553.1673491226-2096328188.1671464695">Florida</a> recognize in safety documentation that bystanders could be harmed. But, so far, few steps have been taken to protect workers’ and bystanders’ health.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"722452603880079360"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew J. Whelton receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Federal Highway Administration, and Purdue University. He was named in patent 11486530, which pertains to the technologies for capturing, identifying, analyzing, and addressing emissions that are potentially hazardous to the environment and humans. The invention was developed with support from the U.S. National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>A wave of infrastructure projects is coming as federal funds pour in. Cities and everyone in them needs to know the risks from the cheapest, most popular repair method and how to avoid harm.Andrew J. Whelton, Professor of Civil, Environmental & Ecological Engineering, Director of the Healthy Plumbing Consortium and Center for Plumbing Safety, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1965332022-12-15T13:06:46Z2022-12-15T13:06:46ZWhat social media regulation could look like: Think of pipelines, not utilities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500812/original/file-20221213-24281-u7oobq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C17%2C5946%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is the law coming for Twitter, Meta and other social media outlets?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/gavel-hammer-with-smartphone-on-blue-background-royalty-free-image/1351965013">new look casting/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter, and his controversial <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/business/musk-twitter-fauci.html">statements</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/13/techscape-twitter-files-elon-musk">decisions</a> as its owner, have fueled a new wave of calls for <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/12/04/elizabeth-warren-will-work-with-lindsey-graham-to-regulate-twitter-she-says/">regulating social media companies</a>. Elected officials and policy scholars have argued for years that companies like Twitter and Facebook – now Meta – have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/opinion/elon-musk-twitter.html">immense power</a> over public discussions and can use that power to <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2017/manipulating-social-media-undermine-democracy">elevate some views and suppress others</a>. Critics also accuse the companies of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/06/tech/instagram-fine-teens-privacy/index.html">failing to protect users’ personal data</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-instagram-is-toxic-for-teen-girls-company-documents-show-11631620739">downplaying harmful impacts</a> of using social media.</p>
<p>As an economist who studies the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yxN_35oAAAAJ">regulation of utilities</a> such as electricity, gas and water, I wonder what that regulation would look like. There are many regulatory models in use around the world, but few seem to fit the realities of social media. However, observing how these models work can provide valuable insights.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ItAseX1x_9o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Families across the U.S. are suing social media companies over policies that they argue affected their children’s mental health.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not really economic regulation</h2>
<p>The central ideas behind economic regulation – safe, reliable service at fair and reasonable rates – have been around for <a href="https://mises.org/library/great-depression-14th-century">centuries</a>. The U.S. has a rich history of regulation since the turn of the 20th century. </p>
<p>The first federal economic regulator in the U.S. was the Interstate Commerce Commission, which was created by the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/interstate-commerce-act">Interstate Commerce Act of 1887</a>. This law required railroads, which were <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/rise-of-industrial-america-1876-1900/railroads-in-late-19th-century/">growing dramatically</a> and becoming a highly influential industry, to operate safely and fairly and to charge reasonable rates for service. </p>
<p>The Interstate Commerce Act reflected concerns that railroads – which were monopolies in the regions that they served and provided an essential service – could behave in any manner they chose and charge any price they wanted. This power threatened people who relied on rail service, such as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1873/11/the-railroads-and-the-farms/630996/">farmers sending crops to market</a>. Other industries, such as bus transportation and trucking, would later be subjected to similar regulation.</p>
<p>Individual social media companies don’t really fit this traditional mold of economic regulation. They are not monopolies, as we can see from people leaving Twitter and jumping to alternatives like <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/06/business/after-trying-two-leading-twitter-alternatives-heres-what-we-found/">Mastodon and Post</a>.</p>
<p>While internet access is fast becoming an essential service in the information age, it’s debatable whether social media platforms provide essential services. And companies like Facebook and Twitter don’t directly charge people to use their platforms. So the traditional focus of economic regulation – fear of exorbitant rates – doesn’t apply.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1600873302443970560"}"></div></p>
<h2>Fairness and safety</h2>
<p>In my view, a more relevant regulatory model for social media might be the way in which the U.S. regulates <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/what-ferc-does">electricity grid and pipeline operations</a>. These industries fall under the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and <a href="https://www.naruc.org/">state utility regulators</a>. Like these networks, social media carries a commodity – here it’s information, instead of electricity, oil or gas – and the public’s primary concern is that companies like Meta and Twitter should do it safely and fairly.</p>
<p>In this context, regulation means establishing standards for safety and equity. If a company violates those standards, it faces fines. It sounds simple, but the practice is far more complicated.</p>
<p>First, establishing these standards requires a careful definition of the regulated company’s roles and responsibilities. For example, your local electric utility is responsible for delivering power safely to your home. Since social media companies continuously adapt to the needs and wants of their users, establishing these roles and responsibilities could prove challenging.</p>
<p>Texas attempted to do this in 2021 with <a href="https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=872&Bill=HB20">HB 20</a>, a law that barred social media companies from banning users <a href="https://www.protocol.com/policy/hb-20-fifth-circuit-questions">based on their political views</a>. Social media trade groups sued, arguing that the measure infringed upon their members’ First Amendment rights. A federal appellate court <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/5th-circuit-temporarily-blocks-texas-social-media-law-00061555">blocked the law</a>, and the case is likely headed to the Supreme Court. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a suit testifies before a congressional committee." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500817/original/file-20221213-21971-lciae2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Biden named Lina Khan, a prominent critic of Big Tech companies, as chair of the Federal Trade Commission in 2021. The agency investigates issues including antitrust violations, deceptive trade practices and data privacy lapses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SenateNASA/a870a635ef574724b21624c1397b0ebc/photo">AP Photo/Saul Loeb</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Setting appropriate levels of fines is also complicated. Theoretically, regulators should try to set a fine commensurate with the <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/PolicyStatementonEnforcement.pdf">damage to society from the infraction</a>. From a practical standpoint, however, regulators treat fines as a deterrent. If the regulator never has to assess the fine, it means that companies are adhering to the established standards for safety and equity.</p>
<p>But laws often inhibit agencies from energetically policing target industries. For example, the Office of Enforcement at the <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/enforcement">Federal Energy Regulatory Commission</a> is concerned with safety and security of U.S. energy markets. But under a 2005 law, the office can’t levy civil penalties higher than <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/civil-penalties">US$1 million per day</a>. In comparison, the cost to customers of the California power crisis of 2000-2001, fueled partially by energy market manipulation, has been estimated at approximately <a href="https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/content/pubs/report/R_103CWR.pdf">$40 billion</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022 the Office of Enforcement <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/fy2022-oe-annual-report">settled eight investigations</a> of violations that occurred from 2017 to 2021 and levied a total of $55.5 million in penalties. In addition, it opened 21 new investigations. Clearly, the prospect of a fine from the regulator is not a sufficient deterrent in every instance.</p>
<h2>From legislation to regulation</h2>
<p>Congress writes the laws that create regulatory agencies and guide their actions, so that’s where any moves to regulate social media companies will start. Since these companies are controlled by some of the wealthiest people in the U.S., it’s likely that a law regulating social media would face legal challenges, potentially all the way to the Supreme Court. And the current Supreme Court has a <a href="https://minnesotalawreview.org/article/a-century-of-business-in-the-supreme-court-1920-2020/">strong pro-business record</a>.</p>
<p>If a new law withstands legal challenges, a regulatory agency such as the <a href="https://www.fcc.gov/">Federal Communications Commission</a> or the <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/">Federal Trade Commission</a>, or perhaps a newly created agency, would have to write regulations establishing social media companies’ roles and responsibilities. In doing so, regulators would need to be mindful that changes in social preferences and tastes could render these roles moot.</p>
<p>Finally, the agency would have to create enforcement mechanisms, such as fines or other penalties. This would involve determining what kinds of actions are likely to deter social media companies from behaving in ways deemed harmful under the law. </p>
<p>In the time it would take to set up such a system, we can assume that social media companies would evolve quickly, so regulators would likely be assessing a moving target. As I see it, even if bipartisan support develops for regulating social media, it will be easier said than done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, none of which has editorial control of any of the content the Center produces.</span></em></p>The US government regulates many industries, but social media companies don’t neatly fit existing regulatory templates. Systems that deliver energy may be the closest analog.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1902272022-09-29T12:35:12Z2022-09-29T12:35:12ZRussia’s energy war: Putin’s unpredictable actions and looming sanctions could further disrupt oil and gas markets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487084/original/file-20220928-15-i1x1wa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C12%2C7980%2C5344&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The new Baltic Pipe natural gas pipeline connects Norwegian natural gas fields in the North Sea with Denmark and Poland, offering an alternative to Russian gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/compressor-station-of-the-new-baltic-pipe-natural-gas-news-photo/1428018416">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s effort to conscript 300,000 reservists to counter Ukraine’s military advances in Kharkiv has drawn a lot of attention from <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2022/09/flimsy-numbers-and-sparks-of-protest-how-putins-mobilization-may-end-up-another-miscalculation/">military</a> and <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/putin-wades-deeper-quagmire">political</a> analysts. But there’s also a potential energy angle. Energy conflicts between Russia and Europe are escalating and likely could worsen as winter approaches.</p>
<p>One might assume that energy workers, who provide fuel and export revenue that Russia desperately needs, are too valuable to the war effort to be conscripted. So far, banking and information technology workers have <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/men-white-collar-jobs-banking-163638140.html">received an official nod to stay in their jobs</a>. </p>
<p>The situation for oil and gas workers is murkier, including swirling bits of Russian media disinformation about whether the sector will or won’t be targeted for mobilization. Either way, I expect Russia’s oil and gas operations to be destabilized by the next phase of the war.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/27/1125401980/nord-stream-leaks-explosions-russia-natural-gas-sabotage">explosions in September 2022</a> that damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines from Russia to Europe, and that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/28/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/">may have been sabotage</a>, are just the latest developments in this complex and unstable arena. As an <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/amy-myers-jaffe">analyst of global energy policy</a>, I expect that more energy cutoffs could be in the cards – either directly ordered by the Kremlin to escalate economic pressure on European governments or as a result of new sabotage, or even because shortages of specialized equipment and trained Russian manpower lead to accidents or stoppages.</p>
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<h2>Dwindling natural gas flows</h2>
<p>Russia has significantly reduced natural gas shipments to Europe in an effort to pressure European nations who are siding with Ukraine. In May 2022, the state-owned energy company Gazprom <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/12/russias-gazprom-halts-gas-transports-to-europe-via-poland-pipeline-a77657">closed a key pipeline</a> that runs through Belarus and Poland. </p>
<p>In June, the company reduced shipments to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which has a capacity of 170 million cubic meters per day, to only 40 million cubic meters per day. A few months later, Gazprom announced that Nord Stream 1 needed repairs and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/02/nord-stream-1-gazprom-announces-indefinite-shutdown-of-pipeline">shut it down completely</a>. Now U.S. and European leaders charge that Russia <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/27/nord-stream-gas-pipelines-damage-russia/">deliberately damaged the pipeline</a> to further disrupt European energy supplies. The timing of the pipeline explosion coincided with the start up of a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/294e441d-7b24-4144-a51f-75bdf70d723c">major new natural gas pipeline from Norway to Poland</a>. </p>
<p>Russia has very limited alternative export infrastructure <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-reverse-leverage-gazprom-cant-shift-its-gas/">that can move Siberian natural gas to other customers, like China</a>, so most of the gas it would normally be selling to Europe cannot be shifted to other markets. Natural gas wells in Siberia may need to be taken out of production, or <a href="https://www.pecantreeog.com/blog/2020-5-29-what-does-it-mean-to-shut-in-a-well/">shut in</a>, in energy-speak, which could free up workers for conscription.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OPAOx-3CS6o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">European dependence on Russian oil and gas evolved over decades. Now, reducing it is posing hard choices for EU countries.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restricting Russian oil profits</h2>
<p>Russia’s call-up of reservists also includes workers from companies specifically focused on oil. This has led some seasoned analysts to question whether <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/capping-the-price-of-russian-oil-will-it-happen-will-it-succeed/">supply disruptions might spread to oil</a>, either by accident or on purpose.</p>
<p>One potential trigger is the Dec. 5, 2022, deadline for the start of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_2802">phase six of European Union energy sanctions against Russia</a>. Confusion about the package of restrictions and how they will relate to a cap on what buyers will pay for Russian crude oil has muted market volatility so far. But when the measures go into effect, they could initiate a new spike in oil prices.</p>
<p>Under this sanctions package, Europe will completely stop buying seaborne Russian crude oil. This step isn’t as damaging as it sounds, since many buyers in Europe have already shifted to alternative oil sources. </p>
<p>Before Russia invaded Ukraine, it exported roughly 1.4 million barrels per day of crude oil to Europe by sea, divided between Black Sea and Baltic routes. In recent months, European purchases have fallen below 1 million barrels per day. But Russia has actually been able to increase total flows from Black Sea and Baltic ports by redirecting crude oil exports to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-India-and-Turkey-to-siphon-more-Russian-oil-ahead-of-EU-ban">China, India and Turkey</a>. </p>
<p>Russia has limited access to tankers, insurance and other services associated with moving oil by ship. Until recently, it acquired such services mainly from Europe. The change means that customers like China, India and Turkey have to <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080122-tanker-switching-surges-for-russian-oil-as-moscow-turns-to-gray-market-playbook">transfer some of their purchases of Russian oil at sea</a> from Russian-owned or chartered ships to ships sailing under other nations’ flags, whose services might not be covered by the European bans. This process is common and not always illegal, but often is used to evade sanctions by obscuring where shipments from Russia are ending up.</p>
<p>To compensate for this costly process, Russia is discounting its exports by US$40 per barrel. Observers generally assume that whatever Russian crude oil European buyers relinquish this winter will gradually find alternative outlets.</p>
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<h2>Where is Russian oil going?</h2>
<p>The U.S. and its European allies aim to discourage this increased outflow of Russian crude by further limiting Moscow’s access to maritime services, such as tanker chartering, insurance and pilots <a href="https://www.transmountain.com/news/2015/oil-tanker-pilots-have-decades-of-local-experience">licensed and trained to handle oil tankers</a>, for any crude oil exports to third parties outside of the G-7 who pay rates above the U.S.-EU price cap. In my view, it will be relatively easy to game this policy and obscure how much Russia’s customers are paying.</p>
<p>On Sept. 9, 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued <a href="https://www.clearytradewatch.com/2022/09/u-s-treasury-department-issues-preliminary-guidance-on-russian-oil-price-cap-and-services-ban/">new guidance</a> for the Dec. 5 sanctions regime. The policy aims to limit the revenue Russia can earn from its oil while keeping it flowing. It requires that unless buyers of Russian oil can certify that oil cargoes were bought for reduced prices, they will be barred from obtaining European maritime services. </p>
<p>However, this new strategy seems to be failing even before it begins. Denmark <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-16/don-t-play-russian-roulette-with-oil-in-the-baltic-sea">is still making Danish pilots available</a> to move tankers through its precarious straits, which are a vital conduit for shipments of Russian crude and refined products. Russia has also found oil tankers that aren’t subject to European oversight to move <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/capping-the-price-of-russian-oil-will-it-happen-will-it-succeed/">over a third of the volume</a> that it needs transported, and it will likely obtain more. </p>
<p>Traders have been getting around these sorts of oil sanctions <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080122-tanker-switching-surges-for-russian-oil-as-moscow-turns-to-gray-market-playbook">for decades</a>. Tricks of the trade include blending banned oil into other kinds of oil, turning off ship transponders to avoid detection of ship-to-ship transfers, falsifying documentation and delivering oil into and then later out of major storage hubs in remote parts of the globe. This explains why markets have been sanguine about the looming European sanctions deadline.</p>
<h2>One fuel at a time</h2>
<p>But Russian President Vladimir Putin may have other ideas. Putin has already <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-blames-germany-west-nord-stream-1-shutdown-2022-09-07/">threatened</a> a larger oil cutoff if the G-7 tries to impose its price cap, warning that Europe will be “<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putin-quotes-russian-fairytale-villain-in-latest-threat-to-let-europe-freeze-without-nord-stream-1">as frozen as a wolf’s tail</a>,” referencing a Russian fairy tale. </p>
<p>U.S. officials are counting on the idea that Russia won’t want to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/capping-the-price-of-russian-oil-will-it-happen-will-it-succeed/">damage its oil fields</a> by turning off the taps, which in some cases might create long-term field pressurization problems. In my view, this is poor logic for multiple reasons, including Putin’s proclivity to sacrifice Russia’s economic future for geopolitical goals. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman walks past a billboard reading: Stop buying fossil fuels. End the war." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487101/original/file-20220928-7170-8pwyfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stand With Ukraine campaign coordinator Svitlana Romanko demonstrates in front of the European Parliament on Sept. 27, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/stand-with-ukraine-campaign-coordinator-svitlana-romanko-news-photo/1243540464">Thierry Monasse/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Russia managed to easily throttle back oil production when the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed world oil demand temporarily in 2020, and cutoffs of Russian natural gas exports to Europe have already greatly <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-reverse-leverage-gazprom-cant-shift-its-gas">compromised Gazprom’s commercial future</a>. Such actions show that commercial considerations are not a high priority in the Kremlin’s calculus.</p>
<p>How much oil would come off the market if Putin escalates his energy war? It’s an open question. Global oil demand has fallen sharply in recent months amid high prices and recessionary pressures. The potential loss of 1 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil shipments to Europe is unlikely to jack the price of oil back up the way it did initially in February 2022, when demand was still robust. </p>
<p>Speculators are betting that Putin will want to keep oil flowing to everyone else. China’s Russian crude imports surged as high as 2 million barrels per day following the Ukraine invasion, and <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/podcasts/oil/092222-asian-oil-demand-destruction-china-india-russia-europe-us-crude-gasoline-gasoil">India and Turkey</a> are buying significant quantities. </p>
<p>Refined products like diesel fuel are due for further EU sanctions in February 2023. Russia supplies close to 40% of Europe’s diesel fuel at present, so that remains a significant economic lever. </p>
<p>The EU appears to know it must kick dependence on Russian energy completely, but its protected, one-product-at-a-time approach keeps Putin potentially in the driver’s seat. In the U.S., local diesel fuel prices are highly influenced by competition for seaborne cargoes from European buyers. So U.S. East Coast importers could also be in for a bumpy winter.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to reflect conflicting reports about the draft status of Russian oil and gas workers.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190227/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Myers Jaffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russian President Vladimir Putin has not hesitated to use energy as a weapon. An expert on global energy markets analyzes what could come next.Amy Myers Jaffe, Research professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1886932022-08-19T07:31:54Z2022-08-19T07:31:54ZBig new incentives for clean energy aren’t enough – the Inflation Reduction Act was just the first step, now the hard work begins<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480001/original/file-20220819-22-99ur2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C37%2C5000%2C3285&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More wind turbines can increase renewable energy, but transmission lines are crucial, too.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/some-wind-power-plants-and-a-high-voltage-powerline-in-news-photo/1089383274">Frank Bienewald/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The new <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/15/by-the-numbers-the-inflation-reduction-act/">Inflation Reduction Act</a> is stuffed with subsidies for everything from electric vehicles to heat pumps, and incentives for just about every form of clean energy. But pouring money into technology is just one step toward solving the climate change problem.</p>
<p>Wind and solar farms won’t be built without enough power lines to connect their electricity to customers. Captured carbon and clean hydrogen won’t get far without pipelines. Too few contractors are trained to install heat pumps. And EV buyers will think twice if there aren’t enough charging stations.</p>
<p>In my new <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300251678/confronting-climate-gridlock/">book about climate solutions</a>, I discuss these and other obstacles standing in the way of a clean energy transition. Surmounting them is the next step as the country figures out how to turn the goals of the most ambitious climate legislation Congress has ever passed into reality.</p>
<p>Two outcomes matter: how deeply U.S. actions slash emissions domestically, and how effectively they cut the costs of clean technologies so that <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/21/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2021.pdf">other countries can slash their emissions</a> too.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure and obstacles</h2>
<p>Various <a href="https://repeatproject.org/docs/REPEAT_IRA_Prelminary_Report_2022-08-04.pdf">studies</a> <a href="https://rhg.com/research/inflation-reduction-act/">predict</a> <a href="https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf">that</a> the Inflation Reduction Act will cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to around 40% below their 2005 levels by 2030. That’s a cut of roughly 1 billion tons per year, far more than any other U.S. legislation has achieved. </p>
<p>But it still leaves a roughly 10 percentage point gap from President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">target</a> of at least a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030.</p>
<p><iframe id="wBF3a" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wBF3a/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>What will it take to close that gap? </p>
<p>The Inflation Reduction Act’s subsidies will make clean technologies cheaper, but the biggest need domestically is for more infrastructure and stricter environmental regulations.</p>
<p>For infrastructure, tax credits for electric cars will do little good without enough publicly available chargers. The U.S. has <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/15/gas-stations-prices-closing">around 145,000 gas stations</a>, but only about <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=dc_fast&country=US">6,500 fast-charging</a> stations that can power up a battery quickly for a driver on the go.</p>
<p>Over 1,300 gigawatts of wind, solar and battery projects – several times the existing capacity – are already waiting to be <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/queues">built</a>, but they’ve been delayed for years by a lack of grid connections and backlogged approval processes by regional grid operators.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text">Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> passed by Congress last year provides some funding for chargers, power lines and pipelines, but nowhere near enough. For example, it sets aside only a few billion dollars for high-voltage <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/transmission/infrastructure-bill-contains-less-transmission-funding-than-advertised">power lines</a>, a tiny share of the hundreds of billions of dollars <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/princeton-study-charts-a-2.5t-pathway-to-a-net-zero-carbon-u.s">needed</a> to chart a path toward net-zero emissions. Its $7.5 billion for chargers is just a third of what electric car advocates project will be <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/a37372003/federal-money-for-ev-charging-wont-be-enough/">needed</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map of US EV charging stations show large numbers in the Northeast and West Coast and US cities, but far fewer in less populated regions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480037/original/file-20220819-24-whcepg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480037/original/file-20220819-24-whcepg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480037/original/file-20220819-24-whcepg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480037/original/file-20220819-24-whcepg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480037/original/file-20220819-24-whcepg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480037/original/file-20220819-24-whcepg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480037/original/file-20220819-24-whcepg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=dc_fast&country=US">DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center • Data as of August 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even more important is to clear the regulatory obstacles to building clean energy infrastructure.</p>
<p>Democratic leaders of the Senate and House have <a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/senate-majority-leader-chuck-schumer-d-ny-and-sen-joe-manchin-d-wv-on-wednesday-announced-that-they-have-struck-a-long-awaited-deal-on-legislation-that-aims-to-reform-the-tax-code-fight-climate-change-and-cut-health-care-costs">pledged to pass</a> legislation to make it easier to obtain permits for power lines and pipelines, but doing so would require bipartisan support, and that <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/lets-get-real-gop-doubts-permitting-deal-will-pass/">remains in doubt</a>.</p>
<p>State and local governments and regional grid operators also play pivotal roles in approving new infrastructure and clean energy projects. They must overcome not-in-my-backyard opposition – some of it from policymakers themselves – to the power lines, pipelines and facilities that will be needed for clean energy, and simplify approval processes for rooftop solar panels. </p>
<h2>It can’t all be carrots: Sticks are needed, too</h2>
<p>We’ll also need regulatory sticks to supplement the Inflation Reduction Act’s carrot cake buffet.</p>
<p>By tightening emissions limits for greenhouse gases and other air pollutants under its Clean Air Act authority, the Environmental Protection Agency can spur the closure of old fossil-fueled power plants, require carbon capture at new ones and drive emissions reductions across a range of industries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Biden sits at a desk signing the legislation. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV.) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Reps. James Clyburn (D-SC), Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and Rep. Kathy Catsor (D-FL) look over his shoulder." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479981/original/file-20220818-6276-r9s5tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479981/original/file-20220818-6276-r9s5tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479981/original/file-20220818-6276-r9s5tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479981/original/file-20220818-6276-r9s5tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479981/original/file-20220818-6276-r9s5tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479981/original/file-20220818-6276-r9s5tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479981/original/file-20220818-6276-r9s5tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the nation’s most ambitious climate investment yet, on Aug. 16, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-signs-the-inflation-reduction-act-with-news-photo/1415247940">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Stricter emissions limits could force gasoline and diesel vehicles to become more efficient and accelerate the adoption of electric ones. Tougher reporting rules and better monitoring of methane leaks will be needed to back up the one stick in the Inflation Reduction Act – its tax on methane emissions.</p>
<p>States wield powerful regulatory sticks too. Ten states have already set 100% clean or renewable electricity <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx">standards</a>. <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/low-carbon-fuel-standard">California</a> and <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/deq/ghgp/cfp/Pages/CFP-Overview.aspx">Oregon</a> have set requirements for cleaner fuels, and states like <a href="https://climate.ny.gov/">New York</a> and <a href="https://www.governor.wa.gov/issues/issues/energy-environment">Washington</a> are implementing comprehensive climate strategies. The more states follow their lead, the more quickly emissions can be cut. The new federal subsidies will ease the path to doing so. </p>
<h2>Ramping up research and global impact</h2>
<p>All the new spending has the potential to achieve deep emissions cuts domestically, but they will have little impact abroad without further action.</p>
<p>Other countries will only adopt clean technologies if they’re affordable, but the Inflation Reduction Act’s subsidy buffet is only available to U.S. citizens and companies. Its rewards for domestic solar manufacturers may help them gain market share in the U.S., but they’ll likely do little to reduce prices in markets <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/a-decade-into-tariffs-us-solar-manufacturing-is-still-deep-in-asia-s-shadow-70236202">dominated</a> by low-cost Asian manufacturers.</p>
<p>More progress abroad may be driven in future decades by the boosts in funding for emerging technologies. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act provides billions of dollars for clean hydrogen and carbon capture technologies that are not yet commercially viable but could become so with greater deployment. Carbon capture should be targeted toward locking up carbon from difficult-to-decarbonize industries like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719695115">biofuel production</a>, rather than to prolong the use of coal power plants or subsidize oil and gas <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/16/opinion/climate-inflation-reduction-act.html">production</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china/">CHIPS and Science Act</a> Biden signed in early August 2022 authorizes <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/08/chips-act-climate-bill-biden/671095/">$67 billion</a> in funding for zero-carbon industries and climate research, although subsequent legislation will be needed to ensure that those funds are actually appropriated.</p>
<p>It would double the budget for the Department of Energy’s <a href="https://arpa-e.energy.gov/">ARPA-E program</a>, which funds research into the most cutting-edge energy technologies. As I discuss in my book, that could be especially important for making clean <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-shot">hydrogen</a> cheap, making <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geovision">geothermal</a> viable in more places, and developing new forms of energy <a href="https://arpa-e.energy.gov/technologies/programs/days">storage</a>. Together with the subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, that could jump-start the research, development and deployment needed to make these technologies affordable worldwide in the decades ahead.</p>
<p>After years of gridlock, there’s reason to celebrate Congress passing three bills that will do more to cut U.S. emissions than any legislation in history. But much more will be needed to reach the nation’s climate goals and to make clean energy more affordable at home and abroad.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188693/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Cohan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To put the $370 billion in subsidies to work, the US needs to build new infrastructure and manage a lot of regulatory hurdles.Daniel Cohan, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825022022-05-20T15:47:14Z2022-05-20T15:47:14ZEurope is determined to cut fossil fuel ties with Russia, even though getting Hungary on board won’t be easy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464324/original/file-20220519-12-spl9ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4495%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An oil tank at Hungary's Duna Refinery, which receives Russian crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/worker-takes-the-stairs-outside-a-giant-tank-at-the-duna-news-photo/1240503355">Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced Europe to rethink its energy policy – especially its deep dependence on Russia for about one-third of its fossil fuel imports. The European Union is negotiating among its members over a plan to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/10/hopes-raised-for-eu-oil-ban-on-russia-despite-hungary-comparing-plan-to-nuclear-bomb">ban imports of Russian oil</a>, although questions remain about issues such as the timing of an embargo and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/eu-drops-plan-to-stop-tankers-moving-russian-oil-to-other-buyers">what kinds of transactions it will cover</a>. The EU makes decisions by consensus, so all members must agree for the plan to be adopted.</p>
<p>Russia exports large quantities of natural gas, coal, oil and fuel for nuclear reactors, but oil provides the most revenue. That income is financing Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine. Energy analysts estimate that every day Russia receives <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/stop-financing-putins-war-with-energy-imports-ukrainian-ngo-pleads/">about 600 million euros (US$635 million) in income</a> from its oil exports to western European countries.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=feqeIB4AAAAJ&hl=en">studied post-Soviet energy</a> for over 20 years. For my recent book, “<a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/russian-energy-chains/9780231197496">Russian Energy Chains: The Remaking of Technopolitics from Siberia to Ukraine to the European Union</a>,” I traced the journey of single molecules of crude oil, natural gas and coal from production in Siberia to their final use in Germany. </p>
<p>With the May 18, 2022 release of its <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3131">RePowerEU plan</a> for quickly reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels, the EU has shown that it is determined to move forward. Yet from my research in oil trade in the region I know that important technical issues will affect Europe’s ability to quickly implement an embargo on Russian oil. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Russia’s oil network is focused on exports to Europe, so an EU embargo is a serious threat to its energy revenues.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Not all oil is interchangeable</h2>
<p>EU member states have been negotiating intensely over a proposed embargo for several months. Initially, Germany – the largest economy in the EU – opposed a ban. However, Germany <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-drops-opposition-to-russian-oil-embargo-11651155915">dropped its objections in late April</a>, and now says <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-15/germany-to-stop-russian-oil-imports-regardless-of-eu-sanctions?sref=Hjm5biAW">it will stop buying Russian oil</a> by the end of 2022 even if the EU is unable to agree on a wider embargo.</p>
<p>Germany’s agreement left <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/04/business/eu-russia-oil-ban/index.html">Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic</a> as the main holdouts. Some of this division reflects politics. </p>
<p>Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has long criticized what he sees as <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/viktor-orban-hungary-will-stick-by-eu-budget-veto-threat/a-55819430">excessive EU intervention</a> in his country’s domestic politics. Orban has used good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin <a href="https://hungarytoday.hu/szijjarto-orban-putin-meeting-hungary-russia-cooperation-paks-sputnik/">as a counterweight</a> to the EU, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/01/hungary-election-ukraine-a-key-issue-viktor-orban">has refused to support Ukraine in any real way</a> as it defends itself against Russian aggression.</p>
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<span class="caption">Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban arrives at an EU summit at Versailles, France, March 11, 2022. Hungary has complied with EU sanctions on Russia, but has remained neutral in Russia’s war on Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CORRECTIONRussiaUkraineWarEUSummit/e870f2708c454372b9dae2f4012e954a/photo">AP Photo/Michel Euler</a></span>
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<p>But Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic also have legitimate <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/europe-drafts-205-billion-plan-to-wean-itself-off-russian-fuels">energy and infrastructure concerns</a>. Since the Soviet Union started exporting large quantities of crude oil to EU member states in the 1980s, oil has created a close and highly dependent relationship between Europe and Russia, particularly the former Soviet bloc countries.</p>
<p>Oil is not a generic product. Some types are sour, meaning that they have a high sulfur content, or <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sourcrude.asp">sweet, meaning low in sulfur</a>. Oil is also graded as light, which flows easily because it’s thinner and has less wax content, or dark, which <a href="https://www2.southeastern.edu/orgs/oilspill/basics.html">contains more wax and is denser</a>.</p>
<p>Sulfur is undesirable in gasoline and diesel fuel because it <a href="https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards/gasoline-sulfur">increases air pollution</a> and makes vehicles’ catalytic converters less effective, so it needs to be removed during refining. Lighter oil with a low sulfur content, such as <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp">Brent crude oil from the North Sea</a>, is easier to refine and thus commands higher prices. </p>
<p>Refineries are usually designed to process a particular type of oil. Russia exports mainly Urals oil, also known as <a href="https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/glossary/russian-export-blend-crude-oil">Russian Export Blend Crude Oil or REBCO</a>, a medium-sulfur oil blend. Refineries built during the Cold War in Soviet-bloc countries were designed to use it as a feedstock. And these countries, especially Hungary, have voiced the <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil">strongest concerns about a blanket Russian oil ban</a>.</p>
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<h2>Cold War legacies</h2>
<p>Energy transportation networks in these countries, as well as the former East Germany, also were put in place during the Cold War. Each country was set up to receive crude oil exclusively from Russia via the <a href="https://www.iaot.eu/en/oil-transport/druzhba-pipeline">Druzhba pipeline</a>, which began operating in 1964.</p>
<p>When the Soviet bloc broke apart in 1989 and 1990, former communist bloc countries – especially the land-locked Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary – were slow to develop infrastructure for importing oil via tanker because pipeline supplies from Russia were significantly cheaper. Moreover, it would have been difficult to retrofit their refineries to handle different types of oil from sources such as Saudi Arabia or the U.S. </p>
<p>These nations’ industrial and transportation sectors rely on gasoline and diesel produced in local refineries from Russian oil. And without ports, they have no ready way to receive oil shipments from elsewhere. </p>
<p>Given these challenges, it’s not surprising that Slovakia and the Czech Republic are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-05/slovakia-backs-eu-ban-on-russian-oil-but-needs-until-end-of-2025?sref=Hjm5biAW">seeking extra time</a> beyond the end of 2022, the EU’s proposed deadline, for phasing out Russian oil imports. Bulgaria, citing similar refinery concerns, is also <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil">asking for an extension</a>. And Hungary has demanded 15 billion to 18 billion euros ($16 billion to $19 billion) from the EU in <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-price-what-will-it-take-to-get-hungary-to-ban-russian-oil/">economic compensation</a> to retool its oil infrastructure – a figure that EU officials say is inflated.</p>
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<h2>Losing their energy chains</h2>
<p>European dependence on Russian oil still runs deep. And even if EU countries agree on a ban, Russia will have other willing takers for this oil – notably India, the <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-country/">world’s third largest oil importer</a>, which is already <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60783874">stocking up on Russian oil</a> at significant discount prices relative to other oil types.</p>
<p>But the debate over a Russian oil embargo also has shown that the EU is not hostage to Russia. EU members have identified conventional and renewable energy sources that they can use to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3131">replace fossil fuels from Russia</a>, at a projected cost of 210 billion euros ($220 billion) over the next five years.</p>
<p>And the EU has also shown that it can devise and reach basic consensus on new policies in record time. Its RePowerEU blueprint was developed in less than three months, and in a recent survey conducted in all EU member states, 85% of respondents <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_2784">supported reducing reliance on Russian fossil fuels</a>. While it may be expensive to bring former Soviet bloc countries along, I expect this investment to pay off in the long term – not only in terms of increased independence from Russian fossil fuels, but, even more importantly, in terms of moving away from fossil fuels as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Margarita Balmaceda has received funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the European Consortium of Institutes of Advanced Studies and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She chairs the Academic Advisory Board of the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen and serves on the Scientific Advisory Board of the Centre for East European and International Studies in Berlin and the Board of the Schevchenko Scientific Society of the USA.</span></em></p>Former Soviet bloc nations have reason to worry about an embargo on Russian oil, but Europeans are finally recognizing the true costs of their longstanding energy dependence on Russia.Margarita Balmaceda, Professor of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1821022022-04-29T12:24:44Z2022-04-29T12:24:44ZRussia’s weaponization of natural gas could backfire by destroying demand for it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460368/original/file-20220428-12-itl2yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5607%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) with Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller at a launch ceremony for the Nord Stream gas pipeline, Sept. 6, 2011, in Vyborg, Russia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russian-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-listens-to-gazprom-news-photo/123930430">Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In December 2006, The Economist magazine <a href="https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2006-12-16">published a cover drawing</a> of Russian president Vladimir Putin, dressed like a 1930s gangster in a dark suit and fedora hat, under the headline “Don’t Mess with Russia.” Putin held a gasoline nozzle, gripping it like a machine gun. The target presumably was Europe, which relied heavily on Russia for oil and natural gas. </p>
<p>The cover story’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2006/12/13/dont-mess-with-russia">subheading</a> asserted, “Russia’s habitual abuse of its energy muscle is bad for its citizens, its neighbourhood and the world.” Today that assertion still rings true with Russia’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61237519">cutoff of natural gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria</a>.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RIxZX_cAAAAJ&hl=en">energy scholar</a> who has lived and worked in Europe, I know that gas is a precious commodity that is critical for industries, power generation and heating buildings – especially in northern Europe, where winters can be harsh and long. This explains why European nations import gas from many sources, but have grown to depend on Russian supplies to keep their homes warm and their economies humming. </p>
<h2>From oil embargoes to gas cutoffs</h2>
<p>The energy weapon can take many forms. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/06/05/the-1967-war-and-the-oil-weapon/">1967</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-oil-embargo">1973</a>, Arab nations cut off oil exports to the U.S. and other Western nations that supported Israel in conflicts against its Middle East neighbors. Withholding supply was a way to inflict economic pain on opponents and win policy concessions. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign reading " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460369/original/file-20220428-19-p8ypv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">To reduce oil consumption, the U.S. adopted a national speed limit of 55 mph in 1974 in response to the 1973 Arab oil embargo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-a-sign-indicating-a-maximum-speed-limit-of-55-miles-news-photo/1318483826">Warren K Leffler/US News & World Report Collection/PhotoQuest via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Today, an oil embargo might not work as well. Oil is a fungible commodity in a global market: If one source cuts off shipments, importing countries can just buy more oil from other suppliers, although they may pay higher prices on spot markets than they would have under long-term contracts. </p>
<p>That’s possible because more than 60% of the world’s daily oil consumption is <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints">delivered by ship</a>. At any given moment, a flotilla of seaborne vessels is carrying crude oil from one point to another around the globe. If there are disruptions, the ships can change direction and get to their destinations within a matter of weeks. </p>
<p>As a result, it’s hard for one oil-producing country to prevent a consuming country from buying oil on the global market.</p>
<p>By contrast, natural gas is moved primarily by pipeline. Only 13% of the world’s gas supply is delivered by <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20gas%20outlook%20to%202050/global-gas-outlook-2050-executive-summary.pdf">tankers carrying liquefied natural gas</a>. This makes gas more of a regional or continental commodity, with sellers and buyers who are physically connected to each other. </p>
<p>It is much harder for buyers to find alternative natural gas supplies than alternative oil sources because laying new pipelines or building new liquefied natural gas import and export terminals can cost billions of dollars and take many years. Consequently, gas disruptions are felt quickly and can last a long time.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">French and German experts debate how the European Union will respond to what leaders called energy blackmail.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The real cost of buying Russian gas</h2>
<p>European nations’ dependence on Russian energy, particularly natural gas, complicates their foreign policies. As many observers have pointed out since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, European consumers’ heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas over the decades has <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/08/europe-russia-energy-crisis-germany/">funded and emboldened Putin’s regime</a> and made European governments hesitant in the face of bad behavior. It was no accident that Russia invaded in February, when it’s coldest and European demand for gas for heating buildings is highest.</p>
<p>Because the European gas grid spans many countries, Russia’s shutoff of gas to Poland and Bulgaria doesn’t just affect those two countries. Prices will rise as gas pressures in the pipelines that run through those countries to other nations drop. The shortage will eventually ripple through to other countries further downstream, such as France and Germany. </p>
<p>If Europeans can reduce their gas consumption quickly as the heating season winds down and gas power plants are replaced with other sources, they can slow the onset of pain. Fuller use of liquefied natural gas imports from coastal terminals could also help. </p>
<p>In the longer run, the European Union is working to <a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-efficient-buildings_en">increase energy efficiency in existing buildings</a>, which are already efficient compared to U.S. buildings. It also aims to fill gas storage caverns to 90% capacity during the off-peak seasons when gas demand is lower, and ramp up local production of biomethane – which can substitute for fossil gas – derived from agricultural waste or <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1511">other organic, renewable sources</a>. </p>
<p>Building more import terminals to bring in liquefied natural gas from the U.S., Canada or other friendly nations is also an option. However, creating new fossil fuel infrastructure would conflict with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change.</p>
<p>Ramping up wind, solar, geothermal and nuclear power plants as quickly as possible to displace the continent’s natural gas power plants is a key priority for the EU. So is replacing natural gas heating systems with electric heat pumps, which can also provide air conditioning during the continent’s <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-fries-in-a-heat-wave-made-more-intense-by-climate-change/">increasingly frequent and intense summer heat waves</a>. These solutions align with the EU’s climate objectives, which suggests that Russia’s gas cutoffs might ultimately accelerate European nations’ efforts to shift to renewable energy and more efficient use of electricity.</p>
<p>All of these options are effective but take time. Unfortunately, Europe doesn’t have many options before next winter. Prospects are worse for energy customers in poorer regions, such as Bangladesh and sub-Saharan Africa, which will simply go without in the face of higher energy prices.</p>
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<h2>Will Russia’s cutoff backfire?</h2>
<p>While gas supply disruptions will undoubtedly inflict pain on European consumers, they also are hard on Russia, which badly needs the money. Currently, Putin is ordering “unfriendly” countries to <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/214515/russia-demands-payment-for-gas-in-rubles-explained">pay for Russian energy in rubles</a> to boost Russia’s currency, which has lost value under the weight of economic sanctions. Poland and Bulgaria had refused to pay in rubles.</p>
<p>Cutting off gas supplies in February would have been expensive for Russia and surely would have inspired even more backlash in Europe. By wielding natural gas as a weapon when the weather is mild, Russia can flex its petro-muscles without being too aggressive or losing too much money. The key question now is whether Europe needs Russian gas more than Russia needs revenue from European sales.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E. Webber is affiliated with The University of Texas at Austin, Energy Impact Partners (a cleantech venture firm), and IdeaSmiths LLC (a consulting company). </span></em></p>Has Putin hurt Russia by jolting Europe’s shift away from fossil fuels into high gear?Michael E. Webber, Josey Centennial Professor of Energy Resources, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1779032022-03-03T13:26:30Z2022-03-03T13:26:30ZWar in Ukraine is changing energy geopolitics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449620/original/file-20220302-21-1rntrlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=36%2C9%2C6002%2C4001&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman holds a blood-stained portrait of Russian President Vladimir Putin at a protest at the Russian Consulate in Montreal on Feb. 25, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-holds-a-portrait-of-russian-president-vladimir-putin-news-photo/1238761617">Andrej Ivanov /AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s war against Ukraine will change the landscape of global energy and its geopolitics in profound ways. Pieces of this terrain have already begun shifting. </p>
<p>As the world’s <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/country-and-regional-insights/russia.html">largest combined exporter of oil and gas</a>, Russia has direct energy relationships with more than two dozen European nations, as well as China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and others. If coal exports are added, a dozen more countries, including India, are relevant. Russia has <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-russia-hooked-europe-on-its-oil-and-gas-and-overcame-us-efforts-to-prevent-energy-dependence-on-moscow-174518">used these exports for political leverage since Soviet times</a>.</p>
<p>But invading Ukraine <a href="https://theconversation.com/international-law-says-putins-war-against-ukraine-is-illegal-does-that-matter-177438">in violation of international law</a> has made Russia a pariah. Its energy customers are not just concerned about sanctions; most are rethinking their reliance on Moscow itself. They see supermajors like BP, Shell, Equinor and ExxonMobil <a href="https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/596200-multinational-us-companies-flee-russia-amid-invasion">exiting Russia</a>, potentially abandoning billions of dollars in assets, after decades of investment. </p>
<p>Other Russian relationships may also be in trouble. Since 2016, Moscow has partnered with OPEC, the global oil producers’ cartel, to control world oil supply and prices against <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/opec-changing-world">competition from U.S. shale production</a>. This so-called OPEC+ partnership has had some success – but now, with sanctions forcing Russia into financial isolation, its future is uncertain.</p>
<p>The most pressing issue is Europe, Russia’s main market. Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly believes his country’s exports are too important to sanction and make Russia’s energy sector too valuable to attack. In my view, he is, at best, partly right. </p>
<p>This is because, besides the exodus of international oil firms, there has been a <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russian-Oil-Gas-Giants-Lose-95-of-Their-Market-Cap-On-London-Exchange.html">mass withdrawal of investor support</a> for Russia’s own energy companies. This suggests the private sector is doing some of the work of sanctions on its own. In any case, Putin’s strategy will fail for other reasons as well. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four men in suits turn a wheel, symbolically opening a pipeline" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449624/original/file-20220302-25-p4pn9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">From left, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic attend an inauguration ceremony of the new ‘TurkStream’ gas pipeline in Istanbul on Jan. 8, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/prime-minister-of-bulgaria-boyko-borisov-russian-president-news-photo/1192543563">Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By leaving, Western energy companies will deprive Russia’s energy sector of much-needed capital and expertise. Italy has <a href="https://www.arctictoday.com/italy-freezes-loan-for-russian-arctic-lng-2-plant-sources-say/">frozen a loan</a> for a new natural gas export terminal in the Russian Arctic. And in the longer term, the Ukraine war has kicked Europe’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/14/world/europe/climate-change-carbon-green-new-deal.html">transition away from fossil fuels</a> – especially Russian oil and gas – into high gear. </p>
<h2>Replacing Russia: Oil options</h2>
<p>In the short term, Russian oil will be hard for its European customers to replace. But options exist. For oil, three stand out. </p>
<p>– Restore the Iran nuclear deal, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/politics/iran-nuclear-deal-biden.html">foreign policy priority for U.S. President Joe Biden</a>. Reviving this agreement, which offered Iran relief from economic sanctions in return for limiting its nuclear weapons activities, would allow Iran to add <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/Iran/pdf/iran_exe.pdf">1.2 million to 1.5 million barrels of oil per day</a> to the global market this year. </p>
<p>Iran is already <a href="https://worldoil.com/news/2022/2/23/iran-moves-more-oil-onto-ships-in-preparation-for-a-nuclear-deal/">loading tankers in anticipation</a> of this happening. Not all of this oil would go to Europe, but just half of it could replace up to 30% of Europe’s Russian imports, which currently total around <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/RUS">2.4 million barrels per day</a>.</p>
<p>– Increase U.S. oil production and exports. This is already happening in response to prices over $90 per barrel. But companies have moved cautiously, seeking to avoid overproduction that could trigger a price collapse and possibly even bankruptcies. </p>
<p>Federal regulators could accelerate production increases by offering tax or royalty relief for wells on federal land. Based on <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40032">recent history</a>, I estimate that U.S. output could rise by 1 million to 1.2 million barrels per day over the next 12 months. Depending how much goes to Europe, this could replace another 30% of Europe’s Russian oil. </p>
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<p>– Pressure Saudi Arabia to raise output. This <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/02/15/saudi-arabia-gas-price-oil/">hasn’t worked</a> so far, but war in Ukraine may change things. Estimates suggest that OPEC, led by the Saudis, has between <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf">3.7 million</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2022">5 million barrels per day</a> of surplus oil production capacity available. A surge of 1.5 million barrels per day could offset another 40% of Europe’s dependence on Russia.</p>
<p>Since the fall of 2021, OPEC <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Gets-Further-Behind-Oil-Production-Quotas.html">has been restraining production</a> while claiming that it has increased its output. This strategy appears designed to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-officials-ask-saudi-boost-oil-production-russia-attack-fears-2022-2">keep prices high and not anger Russia</a>. OPEC’s calculus may shift, however, given Russia’s sinking status and the fact that persistent high prices create demand for alternatives to oil.</p>
<h2>Options for natural gas</h2>
<p>Europe is more dependent on Russia for natural gas than for oil, yet options exist here too. As recently as 2019, Russian gas deliveries to the European Union and the United Kingdom averaged about <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51258">16 billion cubic feet per day</a>, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51358">mostly by pipeline</a>.</p>
<p>Then Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned firm, started cutting supplies, causing an energy crunch in Europe. Russia aimed to pressure the EU into certifying the new <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/22/business/nord-stream-2-germany-russia/index.html">Nord Stream 2 natural gas export pipeline</a> and to deter energy sanctions.</p>
<p>To help alleviate the crunch, U.S. firms sent <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/18/now-is-not-the-time-to-limit-u-s-natural-gas-exports/">60 liquefied natural gas shipments</a> across the Atlantic. Absent an unexpected cold snap, Europe now <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-gas-storage-more-comfortable-after-mild-january-kemp-2022-02-02/">has enough gas in storage</a> to carry it into spring without relying heavily on Russia. Some help in the meantime might come from inter-EU exporters of electricity, if they are able to redirect power to neighbors with especially high reliance on Russian gas. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">World Bank President David Malpass describes options for replacing Russian natural gas exports within five years.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given its Asian natural gas contracts, the U.S. doesn’t have enough peak export capacity to replace Russia’s supply. But more is coming: U.S. peak capacity <a href="https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14222131/us-lng-export-capacity-to-become-worlds-largest-by-end-2022">is set to rise</a> to 13.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2022 and 16.3 billion cubic feet per day by 2024.</p>
<p>Growth plans also exist elsewhere. Qatar <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/qatar-and-global-lng-potential-pivot-asia-europe">aims to raise</a> its capacity substantially by 2027. Newly expanded gas reserves in East Africa, Papua New Guinea and the Eastern Mediterranean will underwrite new liquefied natural gas export terminals.</p>
<p>None of this bodes well for Russia, which sends 70% of its gas exports to EU countries. Going forward, European governments could use tariffs to raise the price. Meanwhile, although China has inked <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020422-russia-china-sign-new-energy-deals-following-ukraine-tension">new oil and gas deals with Russia</a>, leaders in Beijing are not about to become handmaidens to Putin’s energy plans. Instead, I expect the Chinese will continue to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/China/china.pdf">spread their energy dependence widely</a>.</p>
<h2>Long-term energy security through decarbonization</h2>
<p>The war in Ukraine has galvanized support for accelerating the EU’s <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en">European Green Deal</a>. This enormous project aims to make the continent climate neutral by 2050 by putting climate concerns at the center of energy policy. </p>
<p>Approved in 2020, it includes a package of measures known as “<a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-strategy/clean-energy-all-europeans-package_en">Clean Energy for All Europeans</a>,” designed for member nations to adopt into law. The plan covers every major domain of energy use, from buildings and efficiency to electricity markets, with a strong emphasis on shifting to carbon-free and low-carbon sources.</p>
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<p>Battles over national energy choices have slowed progress so far. Howls rose from some observers in 2021 when the EU agreed to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/02/18/why-europe-is-looking-to-nuclear-power-to-fuel-green-future-pub-86468">categorize nuclear power as “low-carbon clean energy</a>.” France, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Macron-says-France-will-construct-new-reactors">recently announced plans to build six to 14 new advanced reactors</a> to improve its energy security and maintain its low emissions status.</p>
<p>As I see it, the EU needs to move forward more aggressively with noncarbon sources, including renewable energy, nuclear power and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-green-hydrogen-but-not-grey-could-help-solve-climate-change-162987">green hydrogen</a>. Decarbonization offers a pathway to energy security and can benefit from Europe’s newfound unity in the face of war.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russian President Vladimir Putin has used his country’s massive energy reserves effectively for political influence. But with war in Ukraine, nations are looking for ways to cut those ties.Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer, Jackson School of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1780082022-03-01T13:41:55Z2022-03-01T13:41:55ZCan wealthy nations stop buying Russian oil?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448964/original/file-20220228-21-nxaw0q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C5018%2C3358&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oil tanks get filled on Russia's Mendeleev Prospect oil tanker in Primorsk on the Baltic Sea. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/filling-tanks-with-oil-at-the-mendeleev-prospect-oil-tanker-news-photo/1136154173">Alexander Ryumin\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>One option the U.S. and other nations have for ratcheting up pressure on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine is reducing their Russian energy purchases. U.K. Foreign Minister Liz Truss has proposed that the G7 nations – the U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan – <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/022722-uk-foreign-minister-truss-floats-idea-of-ceiling-on-russia-oil-and-gas-imports">impose limits on their Russian oil and gas imports</a>. Global energy policy expert <a href="http://www.amymyersjaffe.com/content/about.html">Amy Myers Jaffe</a> explains how this strategy might work and how it could affect international oil markets, which have already been roiled by the conflict.</em></p>
<h2>How important is Russia as a global oil supplier?</h2>
<p>Russia produces <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/RUS">close to 11 million barrels per day of crude oil</a>. It uses roughly half of this output for its own internal demand, which presumably has increased due to higher military fuel requirements, and exports 5 million to 6 million barrels per day. Today Russia is the second-largest crude oil producer in the world, behind the U.S. and ahead of Saudi Arabia, but sometimes that order shifts. </p>
<p>About half of Russia’s exported oil – roughly 2.5 million barrels per day – is shipped to European countries, including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria. Nearly one-third of it arrives in Europe via the <a href="https://www.iaot.eu/en/oil-transport/druzhba-pipeline">Druzhba Pipeline</a> through Belarus. These 700,000 barrels per day in pipeline shipments would be an obvious target for some kind of sanctions, either by banning financial payments or refusing deliveries via spur lines at the Belarus border. </p>
<p>In 2019, European <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-26/the-giant-soviet-pipeline-system-that-s-full-of-tainted-crude">stopped accepting deliveries for several months from the Druzhba line</a> when crude oil flowing through it became contaminated with organic chlorides that could have damaged oil refineries during processing. Russia’s oil shipments <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d87afb0c-88f9-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453">fell noticeably</a> as it redirected flows to avoid the Druzhba line. </p>
<p>The remaining export shipments of Russian crude oil to Europe come mainly by ship from various ports. </p>
<p>China is another large buyer: It imports 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil. Half comes via a special direct pipeline, the Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline, which also services other customers via a port at its end point, including Japan and South Korea. </p>
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<h2>How would Russia be affected if other nations reduce imports of its oil?</h2>
<p>Sanctions against Russia’s oil industry would have a greater impact than <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-us-find-enough-natural-gas-sources-to-neutralize-russias-energy-leverage-over-europe-175824">limiting natural gas flows</a> because Russia’s oil receipts are higher and more critical to its state budget. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/">Russia earned over US$110 billion in 2021 from oil exports</a>, twice as much as its earnings from natural gas sales abroad. </p>
<p>Since oil is a relatively fungible global commodity, much of Russia’s crude exports to Europe and other participating G-7 countries might wind up being sent somewhere else. That would free up other supplies from sources such as Norway and Saudi Arabia to be redirected back to Europe. </p>
<p>Russia’s oil has high sulfur and other impurities, so refining it requires specialized equipment – it can’t be sold just anywhere. But other Asian buyers can take it, including India and Thailand. And Russia has special supply arrangements with countries like Cuba and Venezuela. </p>
<p>It’s already clear, though, that Russia is having trouble redirecting its crude oil sales. At the start of the invasion of Ukraine, European refiners began shunning spot cargoes for fears that sanctions might be forthcoming. </p>
<p>India bought <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/indian-refiners-are-snapping-up-cheap-russian-oil">Russian crude cargoes that were already at sea, at a sharp discount</a>. Markets would likely respond to a G-7 oil ceiling by further discounting Russian crude. We saw the same pattern in the past when countries sanctioned <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-venezuela/sanctions-hit-venezuela-offers-big-discounts-as-oil-prices-collapse-traders-idUSKBN20X33X">Venezuelan</a> and <a href="https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/3/11/china-buying-record-volumes-of-iran-s-sanction-discounted-crude">Iranian oil</a>: Those nations still found buyers, but at reduced prices.</p>
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<h2>Can European nations get oil from other sources?</h2>
<p>Oil shipments are arguably easier to reroute than natural gas, which has to be super-chilled to liquefy it for ship transport, then <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-us-find-enough-natural-gas-sources-to-neutralize-russias-energy-leverage-over-europe-175824">converted back to gas at its destination port</a>. That means Russia’s crude oil may potentially be easier for European countries to replace and reroute than its natural gas, which relies more heavily on pipeline delivery, depending on market conditions. </p>
<p>To ensure replacement barrels are available, Europe and the U.S. could simultaneously increase crude oil sales from their national strategic stocks to lessen the blow of any restrictions on Russian crude oil imports to the G-7. The U.S. is already selling 1.3 million barrels per day from its <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-taps-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-what-is-it-where-did-it-come-from-and-does-the-us-still-need-it-172473">Strategic Petroleum Reserve</a>, and it could increase these flows. China has also <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-01-14/exclusive-china-agreed-with-u-s-on-oil-reserves-release-near-lunar-new-year-sources">released oil from its national strategic stocks</a> to help ease oil prices. </p>
<p>The U.S. and other G-7 members would also likely ask Middle East countries to relax <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/878ae010/the-future-of-saudi-price-discrimination-the-effect-of-russian-production.pdf">destination restrictions</a> on their crude oil shipments and press countries like China and India to redirect other oils of similar quality to Russian oil back to Europe if and when they increase their purchases from Moscow. Such steps would lower the chances of G-7 restrictions on Russian oil imports raising global prices. </p>
<p>It’s not certain that China and India would cooperate, but it would be in their interests to do so. They are major oil importers and would not want to see higher crude oil prices.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of crowds near Berlin's Brandenburg Gate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448985/original/file-20220228-25-veo3ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">More than 100,000 people marched in solidarity with Ukraine in Berlin on Feb. 27, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protesters-crowd-around-the-victory-column-and-close-to-the-news-photo/1238803071">Odd Anderson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>How would global oil prices be affected if G-7 nations buy less Russian oil?</h2>
<p>It would depend on what other steps governments take in response to rerouting of Russian oil exports. Nations are already acting to <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-us-find-enough-natural-gas-sources-to-neutralize-russias-energy-leverage-over-europe-175824">prepare global markets for shifts in liquefied natural gas flows</a> in case of reduced purchases from Russia. </p>
<p>G-7 energy diplomacy is likely to involve other oil capitals that might be willing to export more oil to alleviate disruption of crude oil sales from Russia. Most exporters are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/business/energy-environment/oil-prices-opec.html">maxed out in terms of crude oil production</a>, but a few of the largest Middle East producers could surge their output in the short term to put an extra 1 million barrels per day or more onto the market. </p>
<p>U.S.-Saudi relations could face a test. Riyadh has access to large stores of crude oil in its vast global tank system and its tankers that float at sea. In 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea, U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf held over 70 million barrels in storage near <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UAE-Expands-Strategic-Oil-Hub-To-Counter-Iranian-Threat.html">Fujairah</a> in the United Arab Emirates. They did this as a threat to Russia that a price war would ensue if Russian troops moved beyond that peninsula. Russia stayed in Crimea, so the oil was not released. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-150ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Saudi Arabia has instituted price wars that hurt Russia’s economy in <a href="https://www.rbth.com/history/331825-saudi-arabia-oil-crisis-ussr-collapse">1986</a>, <a href="https://money.cnn.com/1998/11/30/economy/oilprices/">1998</a>, 2009 and again briefly in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/23/saudi-arabia-is-launching-an-oil-price-war-thats-risky/">2020</a>. But today’s oil market conditions make a price war an unlikely outcome, given the existing tight balance between supply and demand. The only scenario that could trigger a price war now would be if global demand were to contract suddenly because of a recession.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Myers Jaffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russia is one of the world’s top three oil producers and a major oil exporter. How will it, and global oil markets, respond if its wealthiest customers turn off the tap?Amy Myers Jaffe, Research professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711822021-11-08T16:20:48Z2021-11-08T16:20:48ZThe new Global Methane Pledge can buy time while the world drastically reduces fossil fuel use<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430782/original/file-20211108-23-1bqzxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5673%2C3757&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. President Joe Biden and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry spoke at the announcement of the Global Methane Pledge.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ClimateCOP26Kerry/68da437c95e14a119b30e51bf56445f8/photo">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There were four big announcements during the first week of COP26, the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow: on <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-heres-what-it-would-take-to-end-coal-power-worldwide-171025">coal</a>, <a href="https://www.gfanzero.com/press/amount-of-finance-committed-to-achieving-1-5c-now-at-scale-needed-to-deliver-the-transition/">finance</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_21_5766">methane</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/deforestation-why-cop26-agreement-will-struggle-to-reverse-global-forest-loss-by-2030-170902">deforestation</a>. Of those four, the global methane pledge could have the most immediate impact on Earth’s climate – provided countries follow through on their pledges and satellite monitoring works as effectively as advertised.</p>
<p>More than 100 countries agreed to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_21_5766">cut their methane emissions 30% by 2030</a> under the Global Methane Pledge, an initiative launched by the U.S. and European Union. And major <a href="https://hewlett.org/20-philanthropies-join-to-provide-328m-to-dramatically-reduce-methane-emissions/">foundations and philanthropic groups pledged over US$325 million</a> to help countries and industry dramatically reduce methane emissions from multiple sources.</p>
<p>Methane is about <a href="https://unece.org/challenge">84 times more powerful</a> at warming the climate than carbon dioxide over the short term. Since it only stays in the atmosphere for <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases#methane">about 12 years</a>, compared to hundreds of years for carbon dioxide, reducing the amount of methane human activities are adding to the atmosphere can have a quick impact on global warming. </p>
<p>A 30% cut in methane emissions could reduce projected warming by <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_21_5766">0.2 degrees Celsius</a> (0.36 F), according to European Union estimates. That buys some time while countries are lowering their harder-to-cut carbon dioxide emissions, but it doesn’t mean other efforts can slow down.</p>
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<h2>How big of an impact could the pledge have?</h2>
<p>The increase in methane emissions is driven by three anthropogenic sources: leaks from fossil fuel infrastructure – methane is the primary component of natural gas and can leak from natural gas pipelines, drilling operations and coal mines – and also from agriculture, primarily livestock and rice fields, and from decaying waste in landfills. The <a href="https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RHG_UntappedPotential_April2015.pdf">technology exists</a> to locate and stop the leaks from pipelines and oil and gas operations, and many landfills already make money by <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/driving-down-methane-leaks-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry">capturing methane</a> for use as fuel.</p>
<p>Several recent analyses show the immense potential of the methane pledge to slow warming. In May 2021 the Climate and Clean Air Coalition and U.N. Environment Programme released the <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/content/benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions">Global Methane Assessment</a>, a landmark report that describes how reducing methane can change the climate trajectory within the next 20 years – a critical time frame for slowing warming enough to avoid passing dangerous tipping points. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report</a> concluded in August 2021 that methane mitigation has the greatest potential to slow warming over the next 20 years.</p>
<p>Human-caused methane emissions are growing at an alarming rate. <a href="https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2742/Despite-pandemic-shutdowns-carbon-dioxide-and-methane-surged-in-2020">Data released</a> by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 2021 shows global methane emissions surged in 2020. Over the last decade methane emissions have reached five-year growth rates not seen since the 1980s. </p>
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<h2>An ambitious start</h2>
<p>So, can the new global methane pledge work in time to help governments and industry limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C in the next two decades? </p>
<p>In short: yes, it can. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/content/benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions">Global Methane Assessment</a> determined that global human-driven methane emissions should be reduced by between 130 and 230 megatons per year by 2030 to be consistent with the Paris climate agreement goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial times. The Global Methane Pledge announced at COP26 would achieve approximately 145 megatons in annual reductions in 2030, an estimate extrapolated from the International Energy Agency’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2020">methane tracking reports</a>. </p>
<p>The Biden administration has proposed <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/US-Methane-Emissions-Reduction-Action-Plan-1.pdf">sweeping new rules</a> on methane emissions, particularly targeting oil and gas operations, to help reach its target. Missing from the pledge’s signers, however, are some large methane emitters, including China and Russia.</p>
<p><a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/people-partners/jeff-nesbit/">I worked</a> in both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations and have been involved in climate change issues for several years. I see the pledge as a strong first step as the first-ever global commitment to specifically reduce global methane emissions.</p>
<p>The 30% goal serves as an ambitious floor to start from while countries get better at reducing methane and technologies improve.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-methane-is-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-and-it-can-pay-for-itself-so-why-arent-more-companies-doing-it-160423">Reducing methane is crucial for protecting climate and health, and it can pay for itself – so why aren't more companies doing it?</a>
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</em>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world’s biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage of COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/cop26">Read more of our U.S.</a> and <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/">global coverage</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Nesbit does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Of the big pledges so far at the UN climate conference, cutting methane could have the most immediate impact.Jeff Nesbit, Research Affiliate, Yale Program on Climate Change Communications, Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1640522021-08-11T12:30:16Z2021-08-11T12:30:16ZWill NIMBYs sink new clean energy projects? The evidence says no – if developers listen to local concerns<p>As Congress debates billions of dollars in new infrastructure investments, advocates are touting the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/08/05/the-senate-infrastructure-bill-puts-america-closer-to-another-new-deal/">social and economic benefits</a> of building new high-voltage transmission lines, clean energy plants and electric vehicle charging stations, along with fixing aging roads and bridges. But when it’s time to break ground, will people accept these new projects in their communities? </p>
<p>Local public acceptance is critically important for siting and developing energy infrastructure. Strong opposition can delay project siting approval and permits. Sometimes it can <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-17/nimbys-shoot-down-green-projects-next-door-while-planet-burns">sink projects altogether</a>.</p>
<p>When communities oppose projects, some people are quick to point to NIMBY, or not-in-my-backyard, sentiments as a formidable and pernicious obstacle. While there’s no official definition of NIMBYism, a traditional definition frames it as someone saying that something is fine in the abstract, but not near me or my home.</p>
<p>But our close examination of opposition has not yielded much <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab875d/pdf">evidence</a> of such NIMBYism. First, when someone is generally supportive of an energy infrastructure project, we find no evidence that they are opposed to the same type of project near their home. Second, we find that opposing energy projects generally is not an irrational or knee-jerk response.</p>
<p>Rather, we find that public opposition to energy infrastructure projects tends to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfaa025">quite rational and understandable</a>. While there is local opposition to some projects, typically people oppose projects when they affect their property value or sense of place, when they are concerned about their local environment, and when they do not trust the energy company. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Jane Kleeb, executive director of the advocacy group Bold Nebraska, testifies at a U.S. State Dept. hearing on the proposed Keystone XL pipeline in Grand Island, Nebraska, on April 18, 2013.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The public gets a voice</h2>
<p>Giving the public a voice in decisions about new energy projects has been official U.S. policy since the 1970s. Laws such as the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/nepa/what-national-environmental-policy-act">National Environmental Policy Act</a> and state equivalents provide for public involvement in decisions about many major projects. For example, utilities that want to build or expand a power plant often have to <a href="https://queenseagle.com/all/nrg-astoria-power-plant-moves-forward-with-public-comment-period">invite and consider public comments</a> in order to obtain their permits.</p>
<p>Environmental laws such as the Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act and Endangered Species Act also can affect energy-related projects. <a href="http://www.pollutionissues.com/Br-Co/Citizen-Suits.html">Opponents may sue</a> to block new projects that they argue will violate the relevant laws.</p>
<p>People and groups also often mobilize outside formal channels to oppose major developments. Recent examples include the proposed <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004908006/developer-abandons-keystone-xl-pipeline-project-ending-decade-long-battle">Keystone XL oil pipeline</a> from Alberta, Canada, to the Gulf Coast, and the <a href="https://www.concordmonitor.com/northern-pass-eversource-hydroquebec-27284387">Northern Pass high-voltage transmission line</a> from Canada to southern New England, both of which were ultimately canceled. </p>
<p>Opponents argued that both projects threatened local resources – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/keystone-xl-pipeline-may-threaten-aquifer-that-irrigates-much-of-the-central-us/2012/08/06/7bf0215c-d4db-11e1-a9e3-c5249ea531ca_story.html">water supplies</a> in the case of the pipeline, and <a href="https://www.clf.org/making-an-impact/stopping-northern-pass/">scenic views</a> in the case of the transmissions lines. They also argued that there were better energy choices than the oil the pipeline would carry or the electricity from large-scale Canadian hydropower projects that the transmission line would deliver.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"468435136405831680"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why do people oppose energy projects?</h2>
<p>When news reports, project supporters and others assert that local resistance to energy infrastructure is due to NIMBY sentiments, the underlying assumption is that these residents are either irrational or selfish. </p>
<p>Yet, in surveys of over 16,000 people, including large numbers living near power plants, pipelines and transmission lines, we found no statistical evidence of NIMBYism. People who support energy infrastructure projects in general are likely also to support specific projects, regardless of whether they are nearby or farther away.</p>
<p>Projects like offshore and onshore wind turbines, pipelines and waste-to-energy facilities often meet significant local resistance. But often that resistance reflects a rational reaction to how a new infrastructure project affects residents’ property values or disrupts their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.101396">attachment to their local landscape</a> or community. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Large metal blade being transported on highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=141&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=141&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=141&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415524/original/file-20210810-15-1jutww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A truck carries a wind turbine blade in southern California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/66TTQS">Chuck Coker/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Our research shows that people are more favorable toward cleaner energy technology infrastructure, such as solar or wind farms, than they are toward fossil fuel-based infrastructure, such as natural gas power plants or oil and natural gas pipelines. This is true when people think about such technologies in the abstract and when they think about specific local projects. </p>
<p>These views are rooted in people’s perceptions of various energy sources’ <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/cheap-and-clean">economic costs and environmental impacts</a>. Simply put: Americans are more receptive in general to energy sources they perceive as cheap and clean.</p>
<p>It’s easier to apply these categories to renewable and fossil fuel energy sources, since they have distinctive carbon and cost attributes, than to delivery systems, such as electric transmission lines or pipelines. We have found that on average, people are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219066">fairly neutral toward power lines and pipelines</a>, but that acceptance grows significantly when the infrastructure is associated with a clean energy project and shrinks when connected to a fossil fuel power plant.</p>
<p>Our research and a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab875d">comprehensive review</a> we conducted of 30 years of studies show that people oppose energy projects due to specific factors, such as concern that the projects will alter their local environments, landscapes and economies. We also find that people who have higher levels of trust in energy companies are more likely to support all types of energy projects. Others who are concerned about climate change are generally more supportive of renewable energy projects and less supportive of fossil fuel projects. </p>
<p>Creating a 100% clean-energy economy and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">President Joe Biden has proposed</a> to slow climate change, will require massive deployment of cleaner energy sources, plus upgraded and expanded distribution and storage systems. Some of these projects will spark local opposition. </p>
<p>In our view, it is imperative for government agencies and energy companies to work with communities to build trust and open dialogue. The most effective way to address opposition is through genuinely addressing concerns about how energy projects affect the places where they are built.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164052/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sanya Carley has received funding for related research from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Konisky has received funding for related research from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.</span></em></p>Most Americans support clean energy in principle, but what will they do when wind turbines or high-voltage transmission lines come to town?Sanya Carley, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityDavid Konisky, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1525862021-02-03T13:24:43Z2021-02-03T13:24:43ZLiving with natural gas pipelines: Appalachian landowners describe fear, anxiety and loss<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380512/original/file-20210125-19-mykhz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C4595%2C2900&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pipeline construction cuts through forests and farms in Appalachia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by Erin Brock Carlson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/state-gas-pipelines.aspx">2 million miles of natural gas pipelines</a> run throughout the United States. In Appalachia, they spread like spaghetti across the region.</p>
<p>Many of these lines were built in just the past five years to carry natural gas from the Marcellus Shale region of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, where hydraulic fracturing has boomed. West Virginia alone has seen a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/na1160_swv_2a.htm">fourfold increase</a> in natural gas production in the past decade.</p>
<p>Such fast growth has also brought hundreds of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pipelines-etp-violations-insight/two-u-s-pipelines-rack-up-violations-threaten-industry-growth-idUSKCN1NX1E3">safety</a> and <a href="https://roanoke.com/business/environmental-regulators-seek-more-fines-against-mountain-valley-pipeline/article_31c30aa8-37d8-559a-8009-274ea19e00ae.html">environmental</a> violations, particularly under the Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">reduced oversight</a> and streamlined approvals for pipeline projects. While energy companies promise <a href="https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1322&context=bureau_be">economic benefits</a> for depressed regions, pipeline projects are upending the lives of people in their paths. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://english.wvu.edu/faculty-and-staff/faculty-directory/erin-brock-carlson">technical and professional communication scholar</a> focused on how rural communities deal with complex problems and a <a href="https://portal.research.lu.se/portal/en/persons/martina-angela-caretta(5bef3fe2-55eb-4cc8-9326-977f0fabb526).html">geography scholar</a> specializing in human-environment interactions, we teamed up to study the effects of pipeline development in rural Appalachia. In 2020, we surveyed and talked with dozens of people living close to pipelines in West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania.</p>
<p>What we found illuminates the stress and uncertainty that communities experience when natural gas pipelines change their landscape. Residents live with the fear of disasters, the noise of construction and the anxiety of having no control over their own land.</p>
<h2>‘None of this is fair’</h2>
<p>Appalachians are no strangers to environmental risk. The region has a long and complicated history with extractive industries, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.04.005">coal</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010147">hydraulic fracturing</a>. However, it’s rare to hear firsthand accounts of the long-term effects of industrial infrastructure development in rural communities, especially when it comes to pipelines, since they are the result of more recent energy-sector growth. </p>
<p>For all of the people we talked to, the process of pipeline development was drawn out and often confusing. </p>
<p>Some reported never hearing about a planned pipeline until a “land man” – a gas company representative – knocked on their door offering to buy a slice of their property; others said that they found out through newspaper articles or posts on social media. Every person we spoke with agreed that the burden ultimately fell on them to find out what was happening in their communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map shows U.S. pipelines carrying natural gas and hazardous liquids in 2018. More construction has been underway since then.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-19-48">GAO and U.S. Department of Transportation</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One woman in West Virginia said that after finding out about plans for a pipeline feeding a petrochemical complex several miles from her home, she started doing her own research. “I thought to myself, how did this happen? We didn’t know anything about it,” she said. “It’s not fair. None of this is fair. … We are stuck with a polluting company.”</p>
<h2>‘Lawyers ate us up’</h2>
<p>If residents do not want pipelines on their land, they can pursue legal action against the energy company rather than taking a settlement. However, this can result in the use of eminent domain.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/eminent_domain">Eminent domain</a> is a right given by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to companies to access privately held property if the project is considered important for public need. <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-5/just-compensation">Compensation</a> is decided by the courts, based on assessed land value, not taking into consideration the intangibles tied to the loss of the land surrounding one’s home, such as loss of future income.</p>
<p>Through this process, residents can be forced to accept a sum that doesn’t take into consideration all effects of pipeline construction on their land, such as the damage heavy equipment will do to surrounding land and access roads.</p>
<p>One man we spoke with has lived on his family’s land for decades. In 2018, a company representative approached him for permission to install a new pipeline parallel to one that had been in place since 1962, far away from his house. However, crews ran into problems with the steep terrain and wanted to install it much closer to his home. Unhappy with the new placement, and seeing erosion from pipeline construction on the ridge behind his house causing washouts, he hired a lawyer. After several months of back and forth with the company, he said, “They gave me a choice: Either sign the contract or do the eminent domain. And my lawyer advised me that I didn’t want to do eminent domain.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pipeline construction on a farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pipeline construction cuts through a farmer’s field.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by Erin Brock Carlson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There was a unanimous sense among the 31 people we interviewed that companies have seemingly endless financial and legal resources, making court battles virtually unwinnable. Nondisclosure agreements <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010147">can effectively silence</a> landowners. Furthermore, lawyers licensed to work in West Virginia who aren’t already working for gas companies can be difficult to find, and legal fees can become too much for residents to pay.</p>
<p>One woman, the primary caretaker of land her family has farmed for 80 years, found herself facing significant legal fees after a dispute with a gas company. “We were the first and last ones to fight them, and then people saw what was going to happen to them, and they just didn’t have – it cost us money to get lawyers. Lawyers ate us up,” she said. </p>
<p>The pipeline now runs through what were once hayfields. “We haven’t had any income off that hay since they took it out in 2016,” she said. “It’s nothing but a weed patch.”</p>
<h2>‘I mean, who do you call?’</h2>
<p>Twenty-six of the 45 survey respondents reported that they felt that their property value had decreased as a result of pipeline construction, citing the risks of water contamination, explosion and unusable land.</p>
<p>Many of the 31 people we interviewed were worried about the same sort of long-term concerns, as well as gas leaks and air pollution. Hydraulic fracturing and other natural gas processes can <a href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/hfstudy/recordisplay.cfm?deid=332990">affect drinking water resources</a>, especially if there are spills or improper storage procedures. Additionally, methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/controlling-air-pollution-oil-and-natural-gas-industry/basic-information-about-oil-and-natural-gas">volatile organic compounds</a>, which can pose health risks, are byproducts of the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42986.pdf">natural gas supply chain</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks through an oil spill near tanks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil spills are a major concern among land owners.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by Erin Brock Carlson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Forty years removed from this, are they going to be able to keep track and keep up with infrastructure? I mean, I can smell gas as I sit here now,” one man told us. His family had watched the natural gas industry move into their part of West Virginia in the mid-2010s. In addition to a 36-inch pipe on his property, there are several smaller wells and lines. “This year the company servicing the smaller lines has had nine leaks … that’s what really concerns me,” he said.</p>
<p>The top concern mentioned by survey respondents was <a href="https://pstrust.org/about-pipelines/state-by-state-incident-maps/">explosions</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fractracker.org/2018/12/pipeline-incidents-impact-residents/">According to data from 2010 to 2018</a>, a pipeline explosion occurred, on average, every 11 days in the U.S. While major pipeline explosions are relatively rare, when they do occur, they can be devastating. In 2012, a 20-inch transmission line exploded in Sissonville, West Virginia, damaging five homes and leaving four lanes of Interstate 77 looking “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/11/west-virginia-gas-explosion/1761757/">like a tar pit.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Flames on the interstate highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A gas line explosion near Sissonville, West Virginia, sent flames across Interstate 77.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GasLineExplosion/b1a50e758f164daeb5c40364aeb93037/photo">AP Photo/Joe Long</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Amplifying these fears is the lack of consistent communication from corporations to residents living along pipelines. Approximately half the people we interviewed reported that they did not have a company contact to call directly in case of a pipeline emergency, such as a spill, leak or explosion. “I mean, who do you call?” one woman asked.</p>
<h2>‘We just keep doing the same thing’</h2>
<p>Several people interviewed described a fatalistic attitude toward energy development in their communities.</p>
<p>Energy analysts <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-natural-gas-outlook/u-s-shale-firms-amp-up-natural-gas-output-as-futures-signal-more-gains-idUSKBN28A0GN">expect gas production to increase</a> this year after a slowdown in 2020. Pipeline companies <a href="https://www.hartenergy.com/news/proposed-rules-cloud-startup-mountain-valley-natural-gas-pipeline-191676">expect to keep building</a>. And while the Biden administration is <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/executive-order-protecting-public-health-and-environment-and-restoring-science-to-tackle-climate-crisis/">likely to restore some regulations</a>, the president has said he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WT6zHIXUsPs">would not</a> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whats-next-fracking-under-biden">ban fracking</a>. </p>
<p>“It’s just kind of sad because they think, once again, this will be West Virginia’s salvation,” one landowner said. “Harvesting the timber was, then digging the coal was our salvation. … And then here’s the third one. We just keep doing the same thing.”</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Carlson has received funding this project from the West Virginia University Humanities Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Caretta has received funding for this project from the Heinz Foundation and the West Virginia University Humanities Center. </span></em></p>Pipeline companies have run roughshod over several regions where they’re building, racking up safety and environmental violations. Many residents feel trapped, with no control over their property.Erin Brock Carlson, Assistant Professor of Professional Writing and Editing, West Virginia UniversityMartina Angela Caretta, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492202020-11-04T19:52:06Z2020-11-04T19:52:06ZA second Trump term? Or a Biden presidency? What it means for Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367574/original/file-20201104-19-1jbo21t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C17%2C5793%2C2578&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden put on brave faces in the hours after the U.S. election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photos)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After a surreal election campaign in the midst of a pandemic, we’re still not sure of the outcome — either Donald Trump won a second term, or Joe Biden will become the next president. Although pre-election polls showed Trump heading for certain defeat, he once again defied pollsters.</p>
<p>Viewed by many as a referendum on Trump’s first term, and indeed on the man himself, the election was one of the most tumultuous in American history. The outcome is still not clear because ballots are still being counted in key battleground states.</p>
<p>Like Hillary Clinton four years ago, Joe Biden positioned himself as the keeper of former president Barack Obama’s progressive ideology. In contrast, Trump promised an “America First” platform of limiting immigration and protecting United States trade interests — a stance that has included, at times, taking aim at Canada, the country’s closest trading partner.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-needs-to-see-the-u-s-and-its-trade-motives-clearly-136161">Canada needs to see the U.S. and its trade motives clearly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s ahead for Canada?</h2>
<p>For Canadians, a Trump victory would essentially mean more of the same but perhaps at a lower decibel level. </p>
<p>Justin Trudeau has managed his relationship with Trump as well as anyone could. Pipelines, steel, aluminum, agriculture and forestry products will continue to be on Trump’s agenda and will be trade irritants between the two countries. </p>
<p>The reality is that Canadian interests — whether on trade, global climate change, foreign affairs or other matters — don’t align with America’s, regardless of the president in power. </p>
<p>A President Biden, on the other hand, will mean a period of uncertainty as a new administration takes charge. But if Trump remains in power, there will be little ambiguity in the Canada-U.S. relationship.</p>
<h2>Canada and the battleground states</h2>
<p>As in 2016, this election will be decided by a trio of battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. The ballots are still being counted, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/04/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">but Biden has been declared the winner in Wisconsin</a>, though Trump is demanding a recount. Trump won all three states in 2016, which helped carry him to victory.</p>
<p>These swing states are critical because they routinely shift between voting for the Democratic presidential nominee and the Republican nominee. Most states vote for the same party election after election. California, for example, with its 55 electoral college votes (more than one-fifth all the electoral votes needed to become president), has overwhelmingly voted Democrat for decades. With little likelihood of that changing, both Biden and Trump did almost no campaigning in California.</p>
<p>In contrast, Ohio — one of the battleground states won handily by Trump this election — sways back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. And since 1944, the state has only once voted for the losing candidate, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/states/Ohio">choosing Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy in 1960</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy are seen debating in television studio." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367350/original/file-20201103-23-1wo3thy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this Oct. 21, 1960, photo, John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon debate in a New York studio.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These battleground states — some of them lining the Canadian border — played an outsized role in this campaign. Trump and Biden did most of their campaigning in these states during the past months knowing that every vote they could obtain counted. </p>
<p>Trump’s “America First” policies resonate with voters along the northern border, some living so close to Canada that they may imagine the loss of their assembly plant or farm to a foreign entity, as outlandish and unlikely as that may seem to Canadians.</p>
<p>Perhaps one day Trudeau will have the opportunity to remind Trump, if he wins re-election, that his second term was in large measure due to support from the states with the closest economic and cultural ties to Canada.</p>
<h2>Trump’s imprint on the U.S.</h2>
<p>Beyond his populist style, Trump will have four more years to leave deep marks on America should he win a second term. He is the only person ever elected president <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587532/donald-trump-no-experience">without prior government or military experience</a>. He is the oldest person to serve as president.</p>
<p>During his tenure, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/the-judicial-branch/">three Supreme Court justices</a> were confirmed, reshaping the court for a generation. Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton only had two justices confirmed during their eight-year terms. Likely more appointments could occur during a second term.</p>
<p>The question for Trump is whether to seek out new avenues to leave a legacy, or to solidify the shifts he has engineered so far. If the former, then working more closely with Canada on matters such as trade disputes with China or immigration policy would be reasonable options. This could certainly happen under a Biden presidency — Obama and Trudeau <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obama-trudeau-bromantic-moments/story?id=40206461">had a “bromance,”</a> and Biden could pick up where Obama left off in terms of a positive working relationship with his Canadian counterpart. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau walk down the Hall of Honour on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, flanked by Canadian and American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367559/original/file-20201104-23-t4bc6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367559/original/file-20201104-23-t4bc6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367559/original/file-20201104-23-t4bc6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367559/original/file-20201104-23-t4bc6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367559/original/file-20201104-23-t4bc6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367559/original/file-20201104-23-t4bc6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367559/original/file-20201104-23-t4bc6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden and Trudeau walk down the Hall of Honour on Parliament Hill in Ottawa in December 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Patrick Doyle</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Regardless, if he’s won re-election, Trump — perhaps for the first time in his life — may feel he has nothing more to prove. This may create openings for policy innovation. Canadian policy-makers would be wise to seek to present some of these to the White House, such as on tourism and regional development that are win-win for Canada and the U.S.</p>
<h2>Biden and the Democrats</h2>
<p>In some ways, Biden was an odd choice as standard bearer for Democrats eager to portray themselves as a party of new ideas and change. The last five Democratic presidents — Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Obama — were, on average, 30 years younger when they took office than Biden. </p>
<p>Many in Canada <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/how-much-do-canadians-dislike-donald-trump-a-lot/">prefer Biden to Trump</a>. Democratic presidents have historically had better personal relationships with Liberal prime ministers than Republican presidents have. A Biden presidency holds the promise that Canada could be treated with more respect and care, even if the underlying disagreements remain. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A teenaged Kamala Harris in her 1981 yearbook." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367357/original/file-20201104-17-4jc21i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kamala Harris is seen in a high school yearbook entry from the 1981 Westmount Secondary School, in Montréal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Stephane Blais</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Kamala Harris is also a bright spot for the U.S.-Canada relationship. </p>
<p>Regardless of whether Biden or Trump is the winner, she’ll have an excellent opportunity to become the Democratic presidential nominee in four years (should a President Biden opt not to run again). Having spent her teenage years in Montréal, Canadians dismayed at the prospect of four more years of Trump can seek solace that the next president may be someone with a personal Canadian connection.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149220/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether it’s a Biden or Trump presidency, the reality is that Canadian interests — on trade, global climate change, foreign affairs or other matters — don’t align with America’s.Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1320772020-08-06T15:56:45Z2020-08-06T15:56:45ZWhy scientists intentionally spilled oil into a Canadian lake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351162/original/file-20200804-22-1pmotza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=702%2C185%2C4444%2C3109&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oil from a ruptured pipeline is vacuumed from a creek near the near the Kalamazoo River in Michigan, July 2010.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada sits on the <a href="https://www.capp.ca/energy/canadas-energy-mix/">third-largest oil reserve in the world</a>. Most of it is in the Alberta oilsands, where companies extract bitumen, a crude oil with the consistency of peanut butter. </p>
<p>To get the oil to pass through pipelines, petroleum engineers mix the oil with lighter components — usually byproducts of natural gas production — to dilute and liquefy the bitumen. This mixture is called “diluted bitumen” or dilbit for short.</p>
<p>Alberta is landlocked. To reach refineries and the international market, dilbit is transported through a network of pipelines and railways over vast stretches of land, riddled with lakes, rivers and wetlands.</p>
<p>But oil pipelines can leak or rupture, and spill their contents into the environment. In July 2010, for example, an Enbridge pipeline in Marshall, Mich., <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-06/documents/enbridge_fs_201308.pdf">spilled at least three million litres of dilbit into the Kalamazoo River</a>, of which an estimated 680,000 litres sank.</p>
<p>The issues of inland spills aren’t new. They are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01813.x">more common than marine spills</a> but often overlooked or unreported. Generally, we know much less about how oil spills affect freshwater ecosystems than the ocean and, <a href="https://www.rsc-src.ca/sites/default/files/OIW%20Report_1.pdf">when it comes to dilbit spills, we know even less</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dragongly trapped in oil" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A captive adult dragonfly trapped in the sticky surface slick of Canadian diluted bitumen from a controlled experimental oil spill in a boreal lake located in Northwestern Ontario during the summer of 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jeffrey Cederwall)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To find out, our research team carefully spilled dilbit into mini-lakes to uncover the real-world responses of the oil and its impact on aquatic life. </p>
<h2>Recreating a freshwater oil spill</h2>
<p>We created mini-lakes with 1,400 litre tanks, filled with lake sediment, water and the natural community of microscopic plankton retrieved from a lake on the Canadian boreal shield. We then spilled a scaled-down volume of dilbit — less than two litres — into the “lake.” </p>
<p>We left the tanks exposed to sunlight, temperature changes and weather while we monitored the viscosity and density of the oil slick on the surface of the water. These parameters are important for understanding when the oil might sink and how it can be cleaned up. We also tracked the oil beneath the surface, its chemical composition and its impact on the plankton living there. </p>
<p>Crude oil floats because it is less dense than water, allowing spilled oil to be skimmed off the water surface. But this isn’t always true for heavy Canadian crude oil. </p>
<p>Dilbit can sink under certain conditions, such as a turbulent river with a lot of suspended sediment and other particles. These particles can bind to the oil and make it denser, as happened on the Kalamazoo River in 2010. </p>
<p>Past research using wave tanks has suggested <a href="https://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/050/documents/p21799/85785E.pdf">dilbit would not sink</a> in a lake. Other studies in test tubes have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2017.10.156">dilbit can sink</a>, but only when vigorously mixed with much more suspended sediment than what is typically experienced in nature.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4600">Our research</a> showed that after only one day, dilbit became too viscous for conventional cleanup methods to perform well. When it rained eight days after our experimental spill, the dilbit slicks broke up and about half of them sank to the sediment in these mini-lakes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Experimental oil spill containers on day 0 and day 8" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison of the dilbit surface slick on Day 0 (left) and Day 8 (right). Left: The freshly added dilbit initially covers the water surface as a smooth slick. Right: Overtime the dilbit slick grew thicker, developed a surface crust and changed colour. Following heavy rain, roughly half the oil sank to the bottom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(BOREAL Study 2017)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Implications for oil spill cleanup</h2>
<p>After an oil spill into water, cleanup crews use booms, skimmers and sometimes even fire to remove the spilled oil from the water’s surface. None of this is possible if the oil sinks.</p>
<p>To clean up sunken oil, the submerged oil and sediment must be dug up. This invasive removal is both expensive and may further harm an ecosystem by removing entire communities living in the sediment and re-suspending oil back to the water column. Sinking substantially <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20120626/dilbit-diluted-bitumen-enbridge-kalamazoo-river-marshall-michigan-oil-spill-6b-pipeline-epa">increases the cleanup costs</a> and timelines and reduces recovery.</p>
<p>If the spilled dilbit gets too viscous, conventional skimmers don’t work well, but if it gets too dense it sinks.</p>
<p>Our results show that dilbit can sink in lakes given enough time, and highlight the need to consider different weather scenarios in risk assessments.</p>
<h2>Life under an oil slick</h2>
<p>Plankton are microscopic organisms that form the base of the food web that supports fish populations. They are also quite sensitive to environmental changes, such as a dilbit spill, making them an ideal group to study.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0224">We found</a> that dilbit spills reduced the overall amount of the zooplankton and algae in the water, but not all species were affected to the same degree. </p>
<p>Some algae species showed signs of recovery after the dilbit sank, but zooplankton appeared more sensitive in the long-term. Larger zooplankton are an important food for fish, so if their numbers drop for a prolonged period, fish could starve. Our initial study lasted 11 days, so we don’t know if this would occur. </p>
<p>Bacterial abundance, on the other hand, increased following the dilbit spill. The composition of the bacterial community shifted to include more oil-eating microbes, which could help mitigate some of the impact of residue oil. </p>
<p>We have seen this before in the ocean. After marine oil spills, <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5b03333">bacterial blooms of oil-eating microbes are common</a>. </p>
<p>Oil breakdown by bacteria offers a promise for some remediation following spills but is likely not a silver bullet, especially for heavy oils such as dilbit. After a dilbit spill, most of the heaviest petroleum compounds comprising natural bitumen will still likely remain, as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.04.005">oil-eating microbes prefer</a> lighter, more accessible oil.</p>
<h2>Research coming down the pipeline</h2>
<p>We know that freshwater dilbit spills may have different implications for clean up and can dramatically affect aquatic life in the short-term, but we still need to understand the long-term impacts of dilbit in a variety of environments and spill sizes.</p>
<p>In 2018, we conducted a larger study using in-lake enclosures at the <a href="https://iisd.org/ela/about/who-we-are/">IISD-Experimental Lakes Area</a>, a research facility in northwestern Ontario that’s world-renowned for hosting experiments in whole lakes. Research from these experimental lakes has shaped water quality policies, such as acid rain and phosphates, by providing more accurate answers than those that come from a lab test tube.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers carefully add dilbit into a large in-lake enclosure in Lake 260 at the IISD Experimental Lakes Area in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jose Luis Rodriguez-Gil)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, unlike typical whole lake studies, we did not just release dilbit into a single lake. By using large in-lake enclosures, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20180625-the-oil-spill-experiment-in-a-canada-lake">we created</a> seven different spill sizes, using multiple levels of oil containment to prevent an intentional oil spill from becoming a terrible accident. </p>
<p>Last summer, a <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-slick-science-how-researchers-are-preparing-for-canadas-next-major/">follow-up study</a> evaluated different oil cleanup options in a freshwater lake using similar in-lake enclosures to figure out which methods work best. Combined, the results of these studies will help inform the risk assessments for dilbit spills, cleanup methods, environmental policy and hopefully mitigate the impacts of future spills.</p>
<p>No one wants an oil spill in their backyard, but sometimes recreating these accidents through small controlled spills is the best way to understand them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Cederwall receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) LEADERS-CREATE: Program for Leaders in Water and Watershed Sustainability.
This research as conducted as part of the Boreal-lake Oil Release Experiments by Additions to Limnocorrals (BOREAL) study funded by an NSERC Strategic Partnership Grant awarded to Dr. Jules Blais (uOttawa), Dr. Mark Hanson (uManitoba), and Dr. Diane Orihel (Queen’sU). Research funding was also received by a grant and in-kind contributions from Environment and Climate Change Canada through the Oceans Protection Plan, in-kind contributions from Fisheries and Oceans Canada, National Research Council of Canada, and the IISD - Experimental Lakes Area, as well as a Research Initiation Grant from Queen’s University awarded to Dr. Diane Orihel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sawyer Stoyanovich receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). This research was conducted as part of the Boreal-lake Oil Release Experiments by Additions to Limnocorrals (BOREAL) study funded by an NSERC Strategic Partnership Grant awarded to Dr. Jules Blais (uOttawa), Dr. Mark Hanson (uManitoba), and Dr. Diane Orihel (Queen’sU). Research funding was also received by a grant and in-kind contributions from Environment and Climate Change Canada through the Oceans Protection Plan, in-kind contributions from Fisheries and Oceans Canada, National Research Council of Canada, and the IISD - Experimental Lakes Area.</span></em></p>No one wants an oil spill in their backyard. Yet to understand the real-world fate and effects of diluted bitumen — a Canadian oil sands product — that’s exactly what some scientists did.Jeffrey Cederwall, PhD Student in Biology, Queen's University, OntarioSawyer Stoyanovich, PhD Candidate in Biology, Spec in Chemical and Environmental Toxicology, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311182020-02-07T20:59:19Z2020-02-07T20:59:19ZRaid of Wet’suwet’en part of Canada’s ongoing police violence against Indigenous Peoples<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314227/original/file-20200207-27533-1gl3mzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=56%2C30%2C3364%2C2436&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the RCMP look on as supporters of the Wet'suwet'en Nation block a road outside of RCMP headquarters in Surrey, B.C., on Jan. 16, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a pre-dawn raid on Feb. 6, <a href="https://www.straight.com/news/1356821/rcmp-begin-arrests-gidimten-spokesperson-molly-wickham-issues-declaration-wetsuweten">the RCMP arrested six land defenders</a> of the Gidimt'en clan of the Wet'suwet'en nation at a blockade protesting the Coastal GasLink pipeline project. They were released later the same day but <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/indigenous/people-at-wet-suwet-en-checkpoint-await-next-wave-of-rcmp-injunction-enforcement-1.5455521">protestors at the Gidimt'en checkpoint await another raid by RCMP</a>. Enforcing an injunction, the RCMP have said that they will use “<a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rcmp-will-use-least-amount-of-force-necessary-to-enforce-coastal-gaslink-injunction">the least amount of force necessary</a>.” But protesters and observers believe any action will result in police violence.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296574/original/file-20191010-188819-17iz6s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296574/original/file-20191010-188819-17iz6s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296574/original/file-20191010-188819-17iz6s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296574/original/file-20191010-188819-17iz6s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296574/original/file-20191010-188819-17iz6s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296574/original/file-20191010-188819-17iz6s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296574/original/file-20191010-188819-17iz6s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/ca/topics/focus-truth-and-reconciliation-in-canada-77341">Click here for more articles in our ongoing series about the TRC Calls to Action.</a></span>
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<p>The RCMP has been called “an occupying foreign army” by Indigenous blogger M. Gouldhawke, who does so based on the fact that the RCMP still maintain their own camp in Wet’suwet’en territory and “<a href="https://mgouldhawke.wordpress.com/2020/02/02/a-concise-chronology-of-canadas-colonial-cops/">continue to harass people at the long-running Unis’tot’en anti-pipeline camp</a>.” </p>
<p>As a young woman, 27 years ago, I stood on the line in Clayoquot Sound with land protectors trying to block logging trucks from taking down an old-growth forest. I witnessed the process of intimidation and <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/25-years-after-clayoquot-sound-blockades-the-war-in-the-woods-never-ended-and-its-heating-back-up/">systematic arrests by police</a>. However, most of the people on the line were Euro-Canadian, middle class or relatively privileged folks in fleece and wool. </p>
<p>They were not hit with billy clubs, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/indigenous/police-racial-bias-aboriginal-canada-1.3761884">or called derogatory names</a>, such as “squaw” or “chug.” To the state, Indigenous protesters represent a much greater threat than environmentalists demanding a park.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314088/original/file-20200206-43123-y7apzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314088/original/file-20200206-43123-y7apzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314088/original/file-20200206-43123-y7apzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314088/original/file-20200206-43123-y7apzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314088/original/file-20200206-43123-y7apzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314088/original/file-20200206-43123-y7apzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314088/original/file-20200206-43123-y7apzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-logging protestor is carried away by RCMP after being arrested for blocking Macmillan Bloedel logging trucks at the entrance to Clayoquot Valley in July 1993.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chuck Stoody</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Britain’s illegal rule</h2>
<p>Canada’s unlawful domination over Indigenous Peoples was articulated from the moment of the country’s inception. </p>
<p>Prior, imperial rule was enacted through imperial policies from Great Britain, <a href="https://indigenousfoundations.arts.ubc.ca/the_indian_act/">such as the Gradual Civilization Act</a>, the pre-cursor to the invasive and controlling Indian Act. </p>
<p>The Royal Canadian Mounted Police were established in 1873 as the North-West Mounted Police. They were the enforcers of the recently formed Anglo-settler state’s policies and to ensure that the Métis, Cree and Saulteaux did not take control in the northwest. </p>
<p>The Hudson’s Bay Company had recently closed shop and <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/trading-beyond-the-mountains">left behind a “European void”</a> in the former Rupert’s Land, an area <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/trading-beyond-the-mountains">soon reclaimed by the Métis</a>. Louis Riel was summoned to lead the Métis in their struggle to protect their community. He would later be hanged as a political prisoner, but he was not Canada’s first Indigenous political execution. </p>
<p>On Nov. 27, 1885, <a href="https://www.goodminds.com/loyal-till-death-indians-and-north-west-rebellion-paper-ed">eight Indigenous men were also hanged by the state</a> for their role in the Northwest Rebellion, <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=tcAikMMDA8sC&pg=PA92&lpg=PA92&dq=Cameron,+1926+resistance+blood+red+the+sun&source=bl&ots=OAEyxaKQpJ&sig=ACfU3U1dSZ2i-L4pnde0EyUhHeYTHayPBg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwis-9mp8L3nAhULH80KHYo2BKMQ6AEwBXoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=Cameron%2C%201926%20resistance%20blood%20red%20the%20sun&f=false">also known as the North-West Resistance, as written about in William Cameron’s 1926 book <em>Blood Red the Sun</em></a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314087/original/file-20200206-43128-94m61y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314087/original/file-20200206-43128-94m61y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314087/original/file-20200206-43128-94m61y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314087/original/file-20200206-43128-94m61y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314087/original/file-20200206-43128-94m61y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314087/original/file-20200206-43128-94m61y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314087/original/file-20200206-43128-94m61y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The North-West Resistance in 1885 was a five-month insurgency against the Canadian government, fought mainly by the Métis and their First Nations allies. Here Poundmaker, Big Bear, Big Bear’s son, Father Andre, Father Conchin, Chief Stewart, Capt. Deane, Mr. Robertson and the court interpreter in Regina, Sask.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(O.B. Buell/Library and Archives Canada/C-001872)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Imperial domination can be seen as a matter of class, gender and “race” with white ruling-class supremacy. Prompted by upper-class advisers such as Donald Smith (a.k.a. Lord Strathcona), John Macdonald, Canada’s first prime minister, sent an army west to kill the Métis and <a href="https://www.drawnandquarterly.com/louis-riel">take their lands</a>, making way for the national railway project.</p>
<p>With the assistance of police, the state decimated the Métis at Red River in 1870, again in 1885 and then subsequently flooded the area with Anglo, Protestant, anti-French and anti-Native settlers. In 1961, the RCMP reprinted a <em>Prince Albert Daily Herald</em> article in their magazine, <em>Quarterly</em>, which claimed that Louis Riel was “<a href="https://mgouldhawke.wordpress.com/2020/02/02/a-concise-chronology-of-canadas-colonial-cops/">mainly responsible for the unsettled conditions which led to the founding of the Force…</a>.” </p>
<p>According to a 2012 <em>Globe and Mail</em> article, strands of the rope used to hang Riel for treason were <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/material-history-the-rope-that-hanged-louis-riel/article4561006/">given to former Manitoba premier Duff Roblin</a> as well as to the RCMP who guarded Riel in his cell.</p>
<h2>Respecting sovereign Indigenous nations</h2>
<p>Many Indigenous Peoples seek the earlier nation-to-nation relationships spelled out in the <a href="https://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1379594359150/1379594420080">Royal Proclamation of 1763</a> and the British North America Act of 1867. And some Indigenous activists look forward to <a href="https://redpaper.yellowheadinstitute.org/">restoring sovereign and self-governing lands</a> in a way prior to the imposition of empire in Turtle Island, imagining how this could look today. </p>
<p>Today, Indigenous people own less than one per cent of all lands in Canada. This process has clearly been both unlawful and unethical.</p>
<p>Later in life, when I worked in the Yukon co-facilitating a racism-reduction project, “Together for Justice,” I came to understand a few things about the RCMP. I learned that some individual RCMP members wanted to be seen as kind human beings, which is challenging given that they work for a gun-carrying, para-military force with a history of violence against Indigenous Peoples. At that point, the organization was contending with its role in a number of Indigenous prison deaths, including that of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/we-failed-yukon-rcmp-says-of-in-custody-death-1.894466">Raymond Silverfox, who perished in his cell from pneumonia at the age of 43</a>. </p>
<p>The RCMP see themselves as having two roles: one of law enforcement and the other of community policing. It is through the second of these roles where their opportunity to be most helpful or humanitarian resides. If police were successful at addressing and stopping violence against women and keeping women and children safe, we would see a different kind of society. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314073/original/file-20200206-43128-1igz7t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=132%2C60%2C3687%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314073/original/file-20200206-43128-1igz7t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314073/original/file-20200206-43128-1igz7t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314073/original/file-20200206-43128-1igz7t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314073/original/file-20200206-43128-1igz7t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314073/original/file-20200206-43128-1igz7t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314073/original/file-20200206-43128-1igz7t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ta'Kaiya, front, and Sii-am Hamilton, holding a sign, are seen standing with Indigenous youth demonstrating support for the Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs in northwest B.C. opposing the LNG pipeline project, in front of the B.C. legislature in Victoria on Jan. 24, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Dirk Meissner</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The RCMP have long had the disdainful role of enforcing the Indian Act, restricting the movement of on-reserve status Indians, arresting Indigenous people for using ceremony, and for the kidnapping of Indigenous children from their families to the internment camps known as “residential schools.”</p>
<p>Here in Tiohtià: ke/Montreal, on the territory of the Kanien’kehá: ka, police are remembered for their role in the Oka Crisis/Mohawk resistance. </p>
<p>Last month, Indigenous young people occupied the B.C. Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum office in Victoria in solidarity with Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs who have opposed the Coastal GasLink pipeline in northern B.C. The occupation ended with arrests by Victoria police.</p>
<p>While we know that prejudice may be rooted in social attitudes, and can be transformed, those who work for the RCMP are required to perform social violence, maintain the status quo and do what folk-singer <a href="https://genius.com/Billy-bragg-the-marching-song-of-the-covert-battalions-lyrics">Billy Bragg</a> identified as “defend wealth.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131118/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Richardson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The RCMP have long been responsible for violence against Indigenous people.Catherine Richardson, Director, First Peoples Studies Program, Associate Professor, School of Community and Public Affairs, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1257152019-11-20T15:29:45Z2019-11-20T15:29:45ZClimate change causes sinkholes, unstable bridges and ruptured pipelines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302313/original/file-20191118-169364-f55egj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=96%2C114%2C3917%2C2891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A bus got caught in a sinkhole in downtown Pittsburgh on Oct. 28, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Darrell Sapp/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Roads, buildings and industrial facilities rely on the integrity of the ground they’re built upon. But when soils shift or are washed away after heavy rain, severe damage can occur. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/husky-energy-north-saskatchewan-river-pipeline-break-1.3855871">Ruptured pipes</a>, <a href="https://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/2-8-million-saskatchewan-crescent-sinkhole-fix-to-be-done-before-snow-flies">abrupt sinkholes</a>, <a href="http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/rail/2013/r13w0124/r13w0124.html">hanging railtracks</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4482513/geotech-study-sask-bridge-collapse-opening-day/">fallen bridges</a> can seriously compromise public safety and the environment. </p>
<p>Soils are like sponges with a network of pores that allows water and air to freely enter and escape. They can be quite stiff when they’re dry and soft when they’re wet. But some soils are more vulnerable to changes in water content than others. Alternate wetting and drying causes swelling and shrinkage in some clays, whereas freezing and thawing can weaken sandy silts.</p>
<p>In southern Saskatchewan, irregular weather patterns due to climate change affect soil moisture and adversely impact pipelines, roads and other utilities that run along the surface or are buried underground. Unless we find ways to shore up these soils or develop other alternative methods to make these grounds more stable, we face a future of interruptions and costly repairs.</p>
<h2>Problematic soils</h2>
<p>Geology, climate and environment govern the origin and evolution of soils. For example, Saskatchewan’s surface soils are made up of <a href="https://esask.uregina.ca/entry/glacial_deposition.jsp">particles deposited from glacial meltwater streams and lakes</a>. </p>
<p>Over the past 10,000 years or so, these soils have been broken down by glaciers, waters, temperatures and biological organisms (weathering) to the deposits we see today. Thick clay sediments and sandy, silty soils are common in the <a href="https://pubsaskdev.blob.core.windows.net/pubsask-prod/93756/93756-Surficial_Geology_Map_of_Saskatchewan.pdf">southern part of the province</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302309/original/file-20191118-169364-11zz4j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C693%2C521&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302309/original/file-20191118-169364-11zz4j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302309/original/file-20191118-169364-11zz4j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302309/original/file-20191118-169364-11zz4j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302309/original/file-20191118-169364-11zz4j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302309/original/file-20191118-169364-11zz4j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302309/original/file-20191118-169364-11zz4j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An embankment collapsed and derailed a VIA Rail train near Togo, Sask., in April 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes-investigations/rail/2013/R13W0124/R13W0124.html">(Transportation Safety Board of Canada)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Expansive soils, such as those found in Regina, contain tiny clay particles. These particles are also negatively charged, which means that when water droplets bond to the particles, they are pushed away from one another — similar to the way two magnets will repel one another when their similar poles face each other — causing the soil to expand. When the water evaporates, the particles become close again. Soils follow this cyclic behaviour during summer and fall. </p>
<p>A similar process occurs in sandy silts, like those around Saskatoon, during winter and spring. These soils are more porous and may be generally stable, but they can also form ice lenses (flat bodies of ice) when the water freezes. This causes heave since the volume of ice is about 10 per cent more than that of water. When these lenses melt, the amount of water locally increases and the soils weaken.</p>
<h2>Soils in the future</h2>
<p>The southern part of the Prairie provinces form the Palliser’s triangle — a semi-arid steppe once considered to be unfavourable for farming owing to its <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/drought-in-pallisers-triangle-feature">dry climate</a>. In recent times, the region has been dramatically affected by climate change. The severity of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/summer-rain-wetter-than-normal-1.5270355">extreme weather conditions, like recent wetter summers, in the area have increased</a> and it appears that the trend will continue in the future. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-floods-we-can-pay-now-or-later-96160">Urban floods: We can pay now or later</a>
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</em>
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<p>In the new norm of climate change, we need to understand the behaviour of soils in terms of more frequent and much wider variations in water content. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I look at several related factors in our research studies to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.10.004">tackle the issue of problematic soils</a>, including local geology, soil properties, seasonal weather variations and the impacts of climate change. We’ve gone on to develop models that can <a href="http://www.jeionline.org/index.php?journal=mys&page=article&op=view&path%5B%5D=201200205">forecast the behaviour of these soils under atmospheric conditions</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302680/original/file-20191120-467-rv7sa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302680/original/file-20191120-467-rv7sa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302680/original/file-20191120-467-rv7sa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302680/original/file-20191120-467-rv7sa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302680/original/file-20191120-467-rv7sa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302680/original/file-20191120-467-rv7sa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302680/original/file-20191120-467-rv7sa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A large sinkhole opened up in downtown Ottawa in June 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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<p>Our research helps others understand the different pressures various structures, such as storage tanks, residential basements, bridge piers and buried pipelines, are exposed to when they’re built into problematic soils.</p>
<p>We’re also planning to find ways to improve soil properties, using locally available and technically feasible additives. For instance, fly ash from coal burning and discarded glass bottles could be used to modify expansive soils.</p>
<p>The new backfill materials would be self-healing in the sense that they would be less vulnerable to swell-shrink and freeze-thaw cycles. Our aim is to modify soils near structures like storage tanks or pipelines so that they can withstand the harsh and exceedingly unpredictable climate now and in the future.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The author receives research funding from NSERC, MITACS, TransGas Limited and Clifton Associate Limited. He has also consulted with Clifton Associates Limited. </span></em></p>Irregular weather is destabilizing the soil that supports railroad tracks, roads, buildings and pipelines.Shahid Azam, Professor - Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, University of ReginaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1188642019-06-18T21:49:22Z2019-06-18T21:49:22ZHow the Trans Mountain green light could benefit First Nations<p>The Canadian government <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/breaking-news-b-c-reaction-to-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-decision">has announced it’s going to restart</a> the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. </p>
<p>There are several Indigenous groups hoping to purchase an equity interest in Trans Mountain. Project Reconciliation, an Indigenous-led consortium of all Western Canadian First Nations who would like to participate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-group-of-first-nations-wants-to-own-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-117302">is proposing to purchase a majority share of the Trans Mountain pipeline</a> and plans to invest 80 per cent of the income earned in an Indigenous sovereign wealth fund. The remaining 20 per cent would be distributed to communities as it is earned.</p>
<p>The federal Liberal government says it will now start meeting officially with Indigenous groups that are interested in buying the project, including Project Reconciliation.</p>
<p>Since mid-2018, Delbert Wapass — a former chief of the Thunderchild First Nation in Saskatchewan — and I have both been involved in <a href="https://www.projectreconcile.ca/">Project Reconciliation</a>. We are building an <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-first-nations-led-group-planning-bid-for-majority-stake-in-trans/">inclusive coalition of First Nations in Western Canada to purchase a 51 per cent stake of the Trans Mountain pipeline and its expansion</a>. All Indigenous communities in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan have been invited to join.</p>
<p>The $7.6 billion needed to acquire the stake would come from a syndicated bond — essentially a loan. There would be no taxpayer money or upfront costs to First Nations communities. </p>
<p>Since the pipeline and expansion already have long-term contracts in place to ship oil from Alberta to the marine terminal in Burnaby, B.C., it would generate profits to meet the communities’ high environmental standards — environmental monitoring, assessment and spill response — and provide income to build the Indigenous sovereign wealth fund.</p>
<p>The Indigenous sovereign wealth fund will be invested, like the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/national-today-newsletter-budget-ghana-peacekeepers-norway-1.4552553">oil export sovereign wealth funds of Norway</a> and the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East, in a professionally managed, diversified international portfolio for long-term returns to Indigenous communities.</p>
<p>The returns of the sovereign wealth fund would, in turn, be channelled to <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/community_investing.asp">a community investment fund</a> to finance Indigenous needs such as housing, health care, sports facilities, scholarships, Indigenous businesses and low-carbon energy — in perpetuity. </p>
<h2>What is a sovereign wealth fund?</h2>
<p>Sovereign wealth funds were introduced in the 1950s and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-800982-6.00017-2">were initially set up</a>
by commodity-rich countries that had accumulated substantial foreign exchange reserves from commodity exports. The Kuwait Investment Fund was the first sovereign wealth fund, set up in 1953 to invest the substantial revenues from its oil industry.</p>
<p>Sovereign wealth funds are characterized by ownership and control by a sovereign entity and involve investment, like pension funds and endowment funds, in a diversified portfolio of real and financial assets globally, <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Pioneering-Portfolio-Management-Unconventional-Institutional/dp/0684864436/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_14_t_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=5J65SJTFMAPWS87HSN67">including stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, airports and toll roads</a>.</p>
<p>Economists describe the aim of a sovereign wealth fund as converting physical natural resource wealth (usually oil wealth) <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-economics-080511-111003">into financial wealth and preserving it in a trust format for the benefit of multiple generations</a>. Of the 70 sovereign wealth funds listed by the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, the Top 3 funds, holding assets of US$2.04 trillion, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128009826000172">are all associated with oil-exporting countries, including Norway, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/norways-oil-fund-is-a-tarnished-gold-standard-for-sustainable-investment-75741">Norway's oil fund is a tarnished gold standard for sustainable investment</a>
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<p>Empirical studies show that, like pension and endowment funds, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.2.219">the objective for making sovereign wealth fund investments should be strictly commercial</a> — that is, to earn high financial returns, rather than investing for political motives, such as promoting certain industries or government policy objectives.</p>
<p>Such funds also focus on investment diversification beyond the country or industry from which the initial wealth was earned. Sovereign wealth funds that are subjected to political involvement <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.2.219">perform less well</a>.</p>
<p>Studies that I’ve co-authored show that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/14720700910998175">some pension funds, like the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan</a>, align their <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10551-009-0030-3">policy objectives</a> of supporting renewable energy companies <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227235755_Morals_or_Economics_Institutional_Investor_Preferences_for_Corporate_Social_Responsibility">and other socially responsible firms</a> when these investment opportunities meet <a href="https://www.otpp.com/investments/asset-groups/infrastructure/portfolio">the plan’s profitability requirements, which they increasingly do since they’re lower risk</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, the world’s largest and most profitable sovereign wealth fund, Norway’s, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-010-0534-x">is increasingly focusing on renewable energy as renewables become more profitable</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund-boosts-renewable-energy-divests-fossil-fuels-11560357485">the country seeks to diversify away from fossil fuels</a>, where it has derived its primary wealth. </p>
<p>That means, according to an international study on emerging pathways to energy transition that I also co-authored, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0186-9">pension funds and sovereign wealth funds play an important role in the global energy transition to lower carbon</a>. Canada’s Indigenous sovereign wealth fund intends to be part of this movement.</p>
<h2>Are Indigenous people sovereign?</h2>
<p>Although First Nations in Canada do not constitute a sovereign nation state with their own currency, central bank and foreign currency reserves, they do have strong aspirations of recognition of their political and economic sovereignty over their traditional territories as part of the reconciliation process. </p>
<p>These sovereignty aspirations <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.04.017">are increasingly recognized societally</a> and are the drivers behind the now conventional Canadian terminology of “First Nations,” rather than bands or tribes, and the <a href="https://ammsa.com/publications/windspeaker/federation-sovereign-indigenous-nations-will-replace-federation-saskatchewa">evolution of names of Indigenous organizations to those that include the words “sovereign” and “nation.”</a></p>
<p>Indigenous peoples were the first stewards, or owners, of the natural resources of their traditional territories. It is ethical to acknowledge this Indigenous ownership through material Indigenous ownership of the commodity wealth produced from these territories.</p>
<p>Anyone who spends any amount of time among First Nations leaders will recognize the primacy of the concept of sovereignty and independence of decision-making in communities and about their traditional territories. </p>
<p>The priority of First Nations leaders in the 21st century is to emerge from the yoke of the Canadian government’s Indian Act administration and to be masters of their own nations.</p>
<p>Successful oil company collaborations with <a href="https://doi.org/10.2118/0603-0036-JPT">Indigenous communities in the Amazon</a>, and their use of collaboration with intermediary organizations to bridge the divide between <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/jcorpciti.10.37.pdf">industry and communities</a>, acknowledged the sovereignty of Indigenous communities and the principle that the communities, not the company, should decide which developments they wanted.</p>
<p>A paper I co-authored with David Lertzman in the <em>Journal of Business Ethics</em> on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-004-3528-8">developing a model for resource industries to engage ethically with Indigenous peoples</a> also highlighted the need for industry to respect traditional Indigenous knowledge and Indigenous community sovereignty. And a United Nations Development Program project that I led in Latin America, where the <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1504/IJBIR.2013.052578">oil industry stimulated sustainable economic development for Indigenous communities</a>, emphasized the need for Indigenous community sovereign decision-making regarding their own development.</p>
<h2>Long-term income from wealth fund</h2>
<p>Sophisticated financial modelling by Project Reconciliation of the estimated income flows from the pipeline show annual income of $250 million. Of that, about $200 million annually would go to the Indigenous sovereign wealth fund to create long-term wealth and $50 million per year would be distributed directly to the community development fund to finance the needs of Indigenous communities. </p>
<p>The aim of the Indigenous sovereign wealth fund would be for it to grow into a significant base of assets under management for the long-term benefit of Indigenous communities. </p>
<p>Over the next 50 years, the sovereign wealth fund’s investments are expected to earn $12.5 billion. That means it would very likely permanently improve Canadian relations with its Indigenous peoples.</p>
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<p><em>Delbert Wapass, executive chairman of the Project Reconciliation group and former chief of Thunderchild First Nation, co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harrie Vredenburg is an executive board member of Project Reconciliation. He is also a member of the board of directors of Prairie Thunder Resources Ltd, representing Thunderchild First Nation's equity stake. He receives funding from the Suncor Foundation which sponsors his Suncor Chair in Strategy & Sustainability at the Haskayne School of Business at the University of Calgary. He has also received funding in the past from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and, while a professor at McGill University's Desautels Faculty of Management, from the Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies (FRQNT).</span></em></p>An Indigenous sovereign wealth fund would finance community needs such as housing, health care, sports facilities, scholarships, Indigenous businesses and low-carbon energy – in perpetuity.Harrie Vredenburg, Professor & Suncor Chair in Strategy & Sustainability, Haskayne School of Business; Research Fellow, School of Public Policy, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1185142019-06-17T22:00:05Z2019-06-17T22:00:05ZCanada: Is it really a country divided?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279676/original/file-20190616-158941-1epbt1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C89%2C3000%2C1895&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The media and politicians with a vested interest pit provinces against each other. But a study shows there are lots of differences of opinion within provinces, and geography doesn't matter much. Here Quebec residents protest against the government's Bill 21, which bans religious headgear, in April 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Is Canada a country divided? </p>
<p>Premiers claim equalization <a href="https://leaderpost.com/news/saskatchewan/moe-open-to-joining-forces-with-alberta-on-threatened-equalization-vote">is unfair</a> to their provinces. </p>
<p>British Columbia and Alberta fight <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5311260/bc-court-of-appeal-trans-mountain-ruling/">about pipelines</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-are-we-going-to-do-anything-to-protect-quebecs-minorities">English-Canadian critics</a> denounce Québec’s treatment of minorities and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-quebec-legislature-expected-to-pass-bill-21-late-sunday/">its passage of a law</a> that bans public servants from wearing religious symbols.</p>
<p>Tensions within our country seem to be running high. </p>
<p>And these are simply the most recent examples of our national conflicts. Since Confederation, premiers and pundits have claimed provincial mistreatment. Our history is rife with inter-provincial tension. </p>
<p>The political strife creates an impression of disunity. Canadians, it might seem, cannot agree on anything. But do Canadian citizens in different regions really have fundamental value differences? </p>
<p>The answer is both yes and no. Canadians’ attitudes towards policy issues are rarely the result of living in one region rather than another, <a href="https://irpp.org/research-studies/study-no65/">a 2017 study found.</a></p>
<p>There are some notable regional issues, to be sure. Economic interests matter to policy, and are reflected in the fact that some Alberta and Saskatchewan residents see pipelines and carbon taxes in a different light than do residents of other provinces. </p>
<p>Cultural preservation matters, and fears of cultural heritage erosion may <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/tale-of-two-liberalisms-attitudes-toward-minority-religious-symbols-in-quebec-and-canada/5AD9C90E736C781FBA513710411D35AA">contribute to</a> Québecois attitudes on religious freedom of expression.</p>
<h2>Geography matters less</h2>
<p>Yet these regional factors have modest effects. In the 2017 study, professors Éric Montpetit, Erick Lachapelle and Simon Kiss found that Canadians’ policy positions reflect a number of different underlying sets of values. Each set of values is found in every region of Canada. There are some variations in value distributions, but regional differences in values, and thus on issues, are modest. <a href="https://www.environicsinstitute.org/docs/default-source/project-documents/confederation-of-tomorrow-survey-2019/report-2---making-federalism-work/confederation-of-tomorrow-survey-2019---report-2-making-federalism-work---executive-summary-english.pdf?sfvrsn=b9523f44_2">Geography matters less than rhetoric suggests.</a></p>
<p>If Canadians from one region to the next are more similar than different, why do we seem so divided? </p>
<p>Part of the problem is the way that we talk about public attitudes. Commentators often slip into language that conflates “majority opinion” with “provincial opinion.” When majority public support (or opposition) is implied to reflect the entirety of provincial opinion, it is easy to lose sight of the range of attitudes present within a province. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-quebec-hurtling-towards-religious-symbols-ban-which-critics-say/">some Québeckers oppose the restriction of religious symbols</a> — just as some <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/january-2018/the-populism-risk-in-english-canada/">residents of other provinces support the same restrictions</a>. Indeed, the study showed that across 18 policy issues —including oil pipelines and religious symbols — there is a similar diversity of opinion within provinces and regions. Policy positions that are popularly associated with a single province actually have support from residents in other provinces too. Canada contains multitudes, to be sure — but so do the provinces.</p>
<p>On top of this, popular debates typically present highly polarized positions. More reasoned positions are ignored in favour of conflictual language. </p>
<p>Such sharply presented policy positions are easily interpreted on a personal level. When an Albertan hears a Québec politician’s hardline opposition to oil pipeline construction, she may assume that no one in Québec cares about her family’s economic fortunes. When an English Canadian critics argues that Québec’s religious symbol policies are intolerant, a francophone Québecker may interpret this as a statement that he himself is intolerant. </p>
<h2>Feelings of disrespect</h2>
<p>Such language contributes to feelings of disrespect across the country. Those feelings aren’t new within Canadian politics. What is new is how social media and fake news exacerbate knee-jerk simplification and demonization. </p>
<p>None of this is helped by the fact that the media and provincial politicians stand to gain from regional divisions. </p>
<p>Playing up regional tensions is a rational strategy that pays off. Media stories about regional friction generate needed attention for a media industry competing for audiences. Provincial politicians benefit from fuelling regional indignation. Premiers and individuals seeking the premiership can make significant political gains <a href="https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/premier-jason-kenney-we-will-never-be-afraid-to-stand-up-for-alberta">by “standing up”</a> for their province, as academic Jared Wesley argued with respect to the 2019 Alberta election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jason-kenney-won-by-portraying-himself-as-the-guardian-of-alberta-115791">Jason Kenney won by portraying himself as the Guardian of Alberta</a>
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<p>Overall, then, the differences between provinces are exaggerated in public discourse. Political rhetoric invokes feelings of disrespect, and politicians and the media gain by playing up these sentiments. It is no wonder that intergovernmental tensions are a permanent feature of Canadian politics. </p>
<p>But so what? Does it even matter? </p>
<p>We don’t think so. Sure, provincial conflict often feels uncomfortable. But the reality is that according to various measures, Canada is functioning just fine. Compared to other OECD countries, Canada does relatively well with respect to <a href="https://data.oecd.org/canada.htm">its economy</a> and several <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/latest.html">environmental sustainability indicators</a>. </p>
<p>Unlike many other countries, and without denying the difficulties, Canada has had some success protecting <a href="https://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/germany-allemagne/highlights-faits/2017/2017-09-26-diversity_fact-diversite_fait.aspx?lang=en#_ftn4">cultural</a> and <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/idees/506372/langue-francaise-savoir-lire-les-indicateurs-avant-de-partir-en-peur">linguistic</a> diversity.</p>
<p>Despite decades of bickering and hand-wringing, Canada continues on. National tensions, in and of themselves, are not leading us to poor policy outcomes. If provincial tensions turn into true separatism, then we have a clear problem. But without that, regional divisions are simply the natural byproduct of a pluralist society within a federal system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Loleen Berdahl receives funding from SSHRC and the Kule Institute for Advanced Studies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Éric Montpetit receives funding from SSHRC. </span></em></p>Despite decades of bickering and hand-wringing, Canada continues on. National tensions, in and of themselves, are not leading us to poor policy outcomes.Loleen Berdahl, Professor and Head, Department of Political Studies, University of SaskatchewanÉric Montpetit, Professor, Public Policy, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1111182019-02-26T14:09:46Z2019-02-26T14:09:46ZMexico is being held to ransom by oil thieves and systemic corruption<p>The equivalent of 1,145 truckloads of <a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/presidente-lopez-obrador-presenta-plan-conjunto-de-atencion-a-instalaciones-estrategicas-de-pemex-no-habra-tolerancia-para-nadie?idiom=es">oil is stolen in Mexico</a> per day from PEMEX – the state-owned petroleum company. That’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/mexico-oil-theft-shortages-motorists-1.4967883">146 billion Mexican Pesos</a> (USD$7.4 billion) in lost revenue since 2016 – a significant hit for a country where <a href="https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Mexico/Oil_revenue/">3.8% of GDP comes from oil exports</a>.</p>
<p>President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has introduced reforms to tackle the problem, including <a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/robo-de-combustible-sera-delito-grave-presidente-lopez-obrador-exhorta-a-familias-mexicanas-a-orientar-a-jovenes?idiom=es">defining oil theft as a serious felony</a> and releasing a new national strategy for oil production.</p>
<p>The new strategy includes <a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/en-ciudad-del-carmen-presidente-lopez-obrador-presenta-plan-nacional-para-la-produccion-de-hidrocarburos?idiom=es">shutting off several major pipelines</a> and working at reduced capacity until appropriate measures can be taken to protect them. While flow through the pipelines is halted, oil remains inside at a constant pressure. Theft causes pressure differences that actually help pipeline operators to detect where thieves are taking oil, but the stationary fuel has tempted more and more people to take risks. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-fuel-theft-blast/at-least-20-killed-in-pipeline-explosion-in-central-mexico-idUSKCN1PD033">pipeline exploded recently</a> after it was tapped by people trying to fill containers with oil. A spark ignited the fuel and killed more than 70 people. A few days later, on January 28, <a href="https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/huachicoleo-robo-combustible-amlo-pemex-toma-clandestina-hidalgo-vo-sot-grafico-perspectivas-mexico/">another pipeline exploded</a> although, thankfully, without casualties. The government has since enlisted the military to patrol pipelines.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46939165">Fuel shortages have gripped several areas of the country</a>, but illegal tapping by ordinary people can only be blamed for about <a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/presidente-lopez-obrador-presenta-plan-conjunto-de-atencion-a-instalaciones-estrategicas-de-pemex-no-habra-tolerancia-para-nadie?idiom=es">20% of total theft</a>. Corruption within the oil industry and organised crime make up the majority of the problem.</p>
<p>PEMEX has already fired 100 workers for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cartels-mexico-oil-theft-pemex-2018-4?r=US&IR=T">complicity in fuel theft schemes</a> and many more are under investigation for their ties to organised crime and for sharing information about the location of pipelines. </p>
<p><a href="http://structura.com.mx/energea/">A study from EnergeA</a>, a consultancy hired by the Mexican Energy Regulation Commission, looked at the hydrocarbon sector’s security and found that drug cartels, militias, petrol stations, PEMEX staff and police have all been implicated as profiteers from bribes or the direct illegal sale of oil. </p>
<p>Many sell the oil to petrol stations at lower prices than official distributors. Their activities go beyond tapping and include the theft of barrels at PEMEX facilities, before distributing it for sale to the black market.</p>
<h2>War on the black market</h2>
<p>People in Mexico have been <a href="https://www.forbes.com.mx/mexicanos-apoyan-amlo-contra-huachicol/">generally supportive</a> of the president’s measures to prevent theft, despite widespread shortages and explosions at pipelines where oil has stopped and tapping has occurred. However, political adversaries have tried to take advantage of the situation, such as former presidents <a href="https://www.proceso.com.mx/566798/calderon-sale-al-paso-ante-criticas-y-asegura-que-combatio-con-firmeza-el-huachicoleo">Felipe Calderon</a> and <a href="https://www.elsoldemexico.com.mx/mexico/politica/callate-chachalaca-vicente-fox-responde-a-amlo-presidente-ante-acusaciones-de-huachicoleo-twitter-2930324.html">Vicente Fox</a>, by demanding López Obrador change course.</p>
<p>The president’s enduring <a href="https://www.forbes.com.mx/mexicanos-apoyan-amlo-contra-huachicol/">public approval ratings of 57%</a> suggest many citizens support a hard line on halting the supply of oil and making oil theft a felony. But to tackle thieves throughout the oil supply chain, Mexican authorities can learn from India, where <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Prasanta_Dey3/publication/3076803_Decision_Support_System_for_Inspection_and_Maintenance_A_Case_Study_of_Oil_Pipelines/links/559d781f08ae76bed0bb3bae/Decision-Support-System-for-Inspection-and-Maintenance-A-Case-Study-of-Oil-Pipelines.pdf">theft has been substantially reduced</a>. </p>
<p>Pipelines in India are routinely patrolled to monitor unusual activities and new technologies have been developed which allow engineers to detect even small signs of theft. New pipelines are also routed near highways or railway tracks to keep pipelines under close vigilance and ensure emergencies can be quickly addressed. </p>
<p>One gadget used in India is a handheld system which identifies leaks and illicit tapping to pinpoint the location of a theft, allowing pipeline operators to coordinate with local police to catch thieves in the act. Portable data loggers can be deployed and installed on pipelines where leaks or thefts are suspected. </p>
<p>Thieves learn to counter traps quickly, so innovative approaches which combine technology and an understanding of why and how people are stealing oil could bring permanent solutions in Mexico.</p>
<p>Given the scale of the problem and how ingrained the “shadow supply” of oil is within Mexican society, focusing on social change is necessary too. The president has appealed to businesses, oil distributors and citizens to <a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/presidente-lopez-obrador-presenta-plan-conjunto-de-atencion-a-instalaciones-estrategicas-de-pemex-no-habra-tolerancia-para-nadie?idiom=es">boycott the black market in stolen fuel</a>, but transforming social practices will be challenging. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/robo-de-combustible-sera-delito-grave-presidente-lopez-obrador-exhorta-a-familias-mexicanas-a-orientar-a-jovenes?idiom=es">Young people</a> could be educated about the negative effects of oil theft for society and the economy. These include fluctuations in the price of fuel, the operational costs for a public utility and the significant personal risk to thieves. </p>
<p>All of this will need support from strong, credible and transparent institutions, as corruption currently limits the authority of state organisations and the police and excuses the participation of private businesses and citizens, such as petrol station owners.</p>
<p>There are many fixes for plugging leaks in the supply chain but stopping oil theft won’t happen without reliable governmental bodies. This includes regulators responsible for monitoring fuel production and organisations enforcing the legal supply of fuels to service stations.</p>
<p>Without transparency and accountability in organisations such as PEMEX, their role as enablers of a shadow supply chain will continue. This demands rethinking corruption as a systemic problem within Mexico, one that is costing lives and goes far beyond oil. Introducing mechanisms which can help identify and report corruption could be a step towards broader social change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111118/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent pipeline explosions have brought the problem of Mexico’s black market for oil into tragic relief.Prasanta Kumar Dey, Professor of Operations Management, Aston UniversityOscar Rodriguez-Espindola, Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1084612018-12-12T22:19:20Z2018-12-12T22:19:20ZIs the next Standing Rock looming in northern B.C.?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/250305/original/file-20181212-110240-u08u7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People march against pipelines in Smithers, B.C. in May 2014.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/leadnow/14170108362">Francois Depey/Office of the Wet'suwet'en</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ground zero in the global battle against climate chaos this week is in Wet'suwet'en territory, northern British Columbia. </p>
<p>As pipeline companies try to push their way onto unceded Indigenous territories, the conflict could become the next Standing Rock-style showdown over Indigenous rights and fossil fuel infrastructure.</p>
<p>On Dec. 14, the B.C. Supreme Court told the Unist'ot'en clan, members of the Wet'suwet'en First Nation, it had 72 hours to remove a barricade that was preventing Coastal GasLink, a subsidiary of TransCanada, from starting construction on a pipeline project. </p>
<p>Now other Wet'sewet'en clans have intervened and erected a checkpoint 44 kilometres down the road. “We will be here until there is no threat of trespass onto our territory by unwanted industry,” <a href="https://aptnnews.ca/2018/12/18/b-c-check-point-built-on-morice-river-road-in-support-of-unistoten-camp/">Molly Wickham from the Gidimt'en clan told APTN News</a>. </p>
<h2>Unceded lands</h2>
<p>Since 2010, the Unist'ot'en clan has been reoccupying and re-establishing themselves on their ancestral lands in opposition to <a href="https://www.vancouverobserver.com/news/what-you-need-know-about-unistoten-pipeline-standoff">as many as six</a> proposed pipeline projects.</p>
<p>One of those, the Coastal GasLink pipeline project, would run approximately 670 kilometres across northern B.C., bringing fracked gas from Dawson Creek to the Port of Kitimat. It is part of a recently approved $40 billion fracked-gas project, called LNG Canada, <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/update-3-massive-canada-lng-project-gets-green-light-as-asia-demand-for-fuel-booms">the single-largest private-sector investment in Canadian history</a>.</p>
<p>But the Unist'ot'en territory is in the pipeline’s path. Community members are committed to resisting pipelines through their unceded lands.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/250296/original/file-20181212-110228-1vzbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/250296/original/file-20181212-110228-1vzbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250296/original/file-20181212-110228-1vzbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250296/original/file-20181212-110228-1vzbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250296/original/file-20181212-110228-1vzbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250296/original/file-20181212-110228-1vzbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/250296/original/file-20181212-110228-1vzbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The proposed route for the Coastal GasLink pipeline project runs across British Columbia, from just outside Dawson Creek to the LNG Canada terminal in Kitimat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bcogc.ca/public-zone/major-projects-centre/coastal-gaslink">B.C. Oil and Gas Commission</a></span>
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<p>They have turned back TransCanada’s contractors by reviving their own traditions of “free, prior and informed consent,” where the community has established a protocol controlling who accesses their territory. As a result, no pipeline work has yet been done on their lands. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albertas-shameful-pipeline-politics-ignores-first-nations-93721">Alberta's shameful pipeline politics ignores First Nations</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>The threat of eviction has <a href="https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/news/local-news/rally-planned-friday-morning-to-support-unist-ot-en-camp-1.23522058">sparked outrage and support across Canada</a>. As a <a href="http://www.ejolt.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EJOLT-hi.116-126.pdf">visitor</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13549839.2018.1536698">researcher</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDR1l_Xw7ts">filmmaker</a>, I had the opportunity to visit the camp in 2012. The Unist'ot'en represent a powerful story of decolonization and transformation. </p>
<p>Their approach of asserting responsibility to the land and the fish rather than demanding rights from the state, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329083440_Blocking_pipelines_unsettling_environmental_justice_from_rights_of_nature_to_responsibility_to_territory">land-based healing of colonial trauma and re-invigoration of Indigenous laws and protocols</a> are an inspiration for land defenders and climate justice activists in Canada and around the world. </p>
<p>Bulldozing through their territory would lead to a major confrontation at a moment when the federal government has expressed a commitment to reconciliation with Indigenous communities. </p>
<h2>Hereditary leadership</h2>
<p>Coastal GasLink has <a href="http://www.coastalgaslink.com/coastal-gaslink-signs-agreements-with-100-per-cent-of-b-c-elected-indigenous-bands-along-the-pipeline-route/">negotiated agreements with the elected councils of all 20 First Nations on the route</a>. But the Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs, the leaders according to traditional governance and decided by consensus in the community, are the only authority that can legally sanction development in their territory.</p>
<p>The community says the Unist'ot'en camp is <a href="http://unistoten.camp/press-release-transcanada-litigation-threatens-unistoten-territory/">not a blockade, protest or demonstration</a>. It now houses a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDR1l_Xw7ts">pit-house</a> (a traditional dug-out dwelling), a permaculture garden, a solar-powered mini-grid and a healing lodge, where community members receive holistic and land-based treatment for substance abuse. The camp also defends the sacred headwaters of the Talbits Kwah (Gosnell Creek) and Wedzin Kwah (Morice River), spawning grounds for salmon.</p>
<p>The Unist'ot'en camp protects against encroaching industrial developments and creates a space for the community to “heal from the violence of colonization.” TransCanada’s attempt to enter their territory by force is an extension of this colonial violence, the community says. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-supreme-court-decisions-on-indigenous-consultation-82562">Lessons from Supreme Court decisions on Indigenous consultation</a>
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</em>
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<p>The Wet'sewet'en and the adjacent Gitxsan First Nations were plaintiffs in the ground-breaking <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/1569/index.do">Delgamuukw court case</a>, heard by the Supreme Court of Canada in 1997. The ruling recognized that the Wet'suwet'en rights and title to 22,000 square kilometres of northern B.C. had never been extinguished. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xA1dihXTjBU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This video explains Wet'suwet'en governance and why the chiefs oppose pipelines.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite this, federal and provincial governments <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/indigenous/trans-mountain-appeal-ruling-first-nations-duty-to-consult-1.4805694">continue to push through industrial and extractive projects without consent</a></p>
<h2>Informed consent</h2>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2015 federal election, Justin Trudeau promised a new <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/a-new-nation-to-nation-process/">nation-to-nation relationship</a> and said his government would “fully adopt and work to implement” the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP).</p>
<p>UNDRIP includes the provision that “<a href="https://biocultural.iied.org/un-declaration-rights-indigenous-peoples">Indigenous peoples have the right to determine and develop priorities and strategies for the development or use of their lands or territories and other resources</a>.” However, the Trudeau government has abandoned its commitment to informed consent, and requires only “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/globe-editorial-the-duty-to-consult-indigenous-canadians-and-its-limits/article35812555/">duty to consult and accommodate</a>.” </p>
<p>The government’s failure to respect internationally recognized Indigenous rights while pushing through projects such as Kinder Morgan is widely considered a <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/updates/trudeau-disappoints-generation-betrays-rights-and-title-indigenous-people-kinder">betrayal by Indigenous communities in Canada</a>.</p>
<p>TransCanada’s attempt to evict the camp must also be seen in a global context of <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/fr/campaigns/environmental-activists/defenders-earth/">increased threats</a> against Indigenous communities, who are often the <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/fr/campaigns/environmental-activists/their-faces-defenders-frontline/?accessible=true">frontline defenders</a> protecting life, water and land against devastating extractive projects. <a href="http://unsr.vtaulicorpuz.org/site/index.php/en/interviews/246-global-crisis">According to Victoria Tauli-Corpuz</a>, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The rapid expansion of development projects on Indigenous lands without their consent is driving a global crisis. These attacks — whether physical or legal — are an attempt to silence Indigenous Peoples voicing their opposition to projects that threaten their livelihoods and cultures.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The stakes here are high. If the provincial and federal governments evict the camp with a violent incursion into unceded territory, they do so at their own peril. It could become a showdown like the <a href="https://www.hcn.org/issues/49.1/whats-next-after-standing-rock">protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline that centred around the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation in North Dakota</a>. The outcome will reveal the sincerity of the Canadian government’s discourse on Indigenous sovereignty and reconciliation.</p>
<p>The camp has become a powerful symbol against extractive projects, and for Indigenous sovereignty and decolonization in practice across Canada and beyond. Communities across Canada have already begun responding to the Unist'ot'en <a href="https://www.facebook.com/UnistotenSolidarity/">call for support</a>. Protests have been held across Canada and <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdNtxbSahBWHsa9Wy_sEelq8BAEp1mOsiiOzkvq9dE7ryMnGA/viewform?fbclid=IwAR2w54zj5sB_sPkA5uKO5PBLgLDe5xqJG6oT_B4RkmKMmfKNuIIRRZTI524">more than 65 organizations and 2,771 individuals have said they stand</a> with the Unist'ot'en. </p>
<p>Many say they will travel to the camp to defend the Unist'ot'en if need be. What’s clear from these pipeline politics is that First Nations are not backing down and have pledged to continue to resist extractive projects and colonial incursions into their territories. The Wedzin Kwah may be the next battleground for the global movement for climate and environmental justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108461/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leah Temper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The We'suwet'en First Nation is fighting the Coastal GasLink pipeline project, which would stretch nearly 700 kilometres across northern B.C. through their unceded land.Leah Temper, Research Associate, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1046842018-10-11T21:58:16Z2018-10-11T21:58:16ZHow post-truth politics is sinking debate on environmental assessment reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240312/original/file-20181011-154549-409o7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Suncor's base plant with upgraders in the oil sands in Fort McMurray Alta., June 13, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The past few weeks have been characterized by a growing chorus of political and media voices, many from the West, decrying the Canadian government’s proposed environmental assessment legislation, Bill C-69.</p>
<p>The bill, known as the <a href="http://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/42-1/bill/C-69/first-reading">Impact Assessment Act</a>, is currently before the Senate. If adopted, the legislation would revise the rules for the review and approval of major projects such as mines, large hydroelectric projects and interprovincial energy infrastructure like pipelines and power lines. </p>
<p>The bill has been criticized by the Canada West Foundation, the federal Conservative opposition, the Alberta government, parts of the fossil fuel industry, as well as some columnists and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-globe-editorial-bill-c-69-kills-the-national-energy-board-but-keeps/">editorial boards</a>. In reading their commentary, one could come away with the impression the legislation proposes radical changes, to be recklessly imposed by a government ideologically opposed to the resource sector. </p>
<p>The reality of the bill’s contents is rather less dramatic. </p>
<h2>Marginal adjustments, not radical change</h2>
<p>Bill C-69 largely leaves the existing assessment and review process intact. That process was established in its current form by the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/budget-bill-gives-harper-cabinet-free-hand-on-environmental-assessments/article4105864/">Harper government’s 2012 omnibus budget bills (Bills C-38 and C-45)</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">About 100 people march in a demonstration in downtown Yellowknife in 2012. Idle No More organizers opposed the Harper government’s omnibus budget legislation, Bill C-45, and accused the Conservative government of trampling on treaty rights.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Bill Braden)</span></span>
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<p>The proposed legislation would make some marginal adjustments to that regime. It would widen participation in federal review processes beyond those who are directly affected by projects, allowing members of the public to file comments on projects and participate in hearings even if the projects are not “in their backyards.” It strengthens the requirements for the federal government to explain how it has arrived at its decisions under the act. </p>
<p>Bill C-69 also renames the National Energy Board the Canadian Energy Regulator. Final say in decision-making remains with the federal cabinet, as it did under the Bill C-38 amendments. </p>
<p>Contrary to <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-globe-editorial-bill-c-69-kills-the-national-energy-board-but-keeps/">some commentary</a>, the bill would actually widen the scope of the environmental assessment process. It would consider all effects of a major project, including economic, social, health and gender, both positive and negative, in addition to its environmental effects. </p>
<p>With respect to energy projects, the bill re-establishes some elements of the pre-2012 regime. For example, a commissioner from the newly formed Canadian Energy Regulator would participate in joint reviews with panelists that had relevant knowledge or experience. </p>
<p>And while acknowledging Indigenous rights, Bill C-69 does not come close to establishing the kinds of ongoing governance structures with Indigenous communities that would reflect federal and provincial governments’ commitments to implementing the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples.html">United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a>.</p>
<h2>A shadow of what existed before 2012</h2>
<p>The resource sectors that are now criticizing Bill C-69 functioned successfully for decades under the pre-Harper review and assessment regime. An overwhelming majority of development projects, including the Canadian portion of the Keystone XL pipeline, were assessed and approved under the pre-2012 system. </p>
<p>The review process that would be established through Bill C-69 would remain a shadow of what existed before 2012. Prior to that date, several thousand federal environmental assessments were conducted <a href="http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_201410_04_e_39851.html">each year.</a>Yet there was no discernible negative economic impact of these requirements and there were substantial improvements in the quality and acceptance of the resulting decisions. Under Bill C-69, the new impact assessment process would likely remain limited to a few dozen major projects per year. </p>
<p>Completely absent from the critical commentary is any acknowledgement that the 2012 revisions to the federal review process are widely seen as an abject failure. Rather than facilitating the approval of energy projects, they have led to deeper political, social and legal conflicts than ever, as evidenced by the successful court challenges to the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/northern-gateway-pipeline-federal-court-of-appeal-1.3659561">Northern Gateway</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trans-mountain-federal-court-appeals-1.4804495">Kinder Morgan/Trans Mountain</a> pipelines.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-quick-or-easy-resolution-to-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-question-103034">No quick or easy resolution to the Trans Mountain pipeline question</a>
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<p>The current regime fails to consider the broader implications of energy projects, such as whether Canada can meet its climate change commitments. Nor does it require any review for thousands of projects each year within federal jurisdiction that, cumulatively, contribute to significant environmental, health, social and economic impacts. </p>
<p>The attacks on Bill C-69 seem grounded in fundamental misunderstandings of the federal environmental assessment regime, past and present. Much of the accompanying rhetoric wildly exaggerates the bill’s likely effects on the existing processes and procedures. </p>
<h2>Environmental challenges remain</h2>
<p>Canada is facing numerous environmental challenges. According to a <a href="http://www.wwf.ca/about_us/lprc/">recent report</a> by the World Wildlife Fund Canada, half of the country’s monitored species (451 of 903) declined in abundance between 1970 and 2014. Half of those had an average decline of 83 per cent. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240314/original/file-20181011-154567-11yqtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240314/original/file-20181011-154567-11yqtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240314/original/file-20181011-154567-11yqtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240314/original/file-20181011-154567-11yqtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240314/original/file-20181011-154567-11yqtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240314/original/file-20181011-154567-11yqtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240314/original/file-20181011-154567-11yqtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In this 2015 photo, an orca whale breaches in view of Mount Baker, in the Salish Sea in the San Juan Islands, Wash.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)</span></span>
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<p>Marine wildlife is facing significant pressure on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, with a record number of <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/08/endangered-right-whales-are-dying-record-numbers-canada-raising-alarm">right whale deaths</a> in the Gulf of St. Lawrence in 2017 and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/low-orca-birth-rates-linked-to-lack-of-chinook-salmon-1.4183609">declining birth rates</a> among southern resident orcas in British Columbia’s coastal waters. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-fishing-rules-aim-to-protect-gulf-of-st-lawrence-right-whales-96158">New fishing rules aim to protect Gulf of St. Lawrence right whales</a>
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<p>In May, the <a href="https://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/speech_oped/2018/05/17/the-costs-of-climate-change-are-rising">Conference Board of Canada reported</a> that natural catastrophes are costing Canadian insurers roughly a billion dollars annually. This was before wildfires struck B.C. and Ontario this summer, and tornadoes set down in Québec and Ontario in September.</p>
<h2>Not the end of the world</h2>
<p>While the Impact Assessment Act is not perfect, it attempts to deal with some of these challenges at a more systemic level. The bill reflects the results of over two years of extensive engagement. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/conservation/assessments/environmental-reviews/environmental-assessment-processes/building-common-ground.html">Two</a> expert <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/19667">panels</a> travelled across Canada and published comprehensive reports. The House of Commons committee studying the bill heard testimony from <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/19667">more than 100 witnesses</a>. The bill now before the Senate represents incremental — not radical — changes to the regime that now exists. </p>
<p>The ugly face of post-truth politics is now becoming deeply embedded in political discourses in the United States. Canada needs to avoid the same path. </p>
<p>A calmer and better-informed debate over the details of Bill C-69 and their implications would be a good place to start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, and Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Curran is affiliated with the Environmental Law Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Olszynski received funding from the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency.</span></em></p>Canada’s proposed new environmental assessment law is facing heated, if not necessarily well-informed, opposition. The real question is whether it goes far enough.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaDeborah Curran, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law and School of Environmental Studies, University of VictoriaMartin Olszynski, Associate Professor, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.