tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/air-university-4060/articlesAir University2023-12-12T13:22:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168082023-12-12T13:22:22Z2023-12-12T13:22:22ZScientists and space agencies are shooting for the Moon – 5 essential reads on modern lunar missions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556958/original/file-20231031-19-egoy20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=72%2C21%2C4734%2C3293&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Moon, shot from Pakistan during a lunar eclipse. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PakistanLunarEclipse/78b42ec6aa9f40218389cd06b938b1ff/photo?Query=moon&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=41215&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Fareed Khan</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2023 proved a big one for lunar science. <a href="https://theconversation.com/indias-chandrayaan-3-landed-on-the-south-pole-of-the-moon-a-space-policy-expert-explains-what-this-means-for-india-and-the-global-race-to-the-moon-212171">India’s Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft landed</a> near the south pole of the Moon, a huge accomplishment for a country relatively new to the space scene, especially after its <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/mission/chandrayaan-2/">Chandrayaan-2 craft crashed</a> in 2019. </p>
<p>At the same time, NASA’s been gearing up for a host of Moon-related missions, including its <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/">Artemis program</a>. In 2023, the agency gained nine signatories to the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/artemis-accords/">Artemis Accords</a>, an international agreement for peaceful space exploration, for a total of 32 countries that have signed so far. </p>
<p>As Georgia Tech’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/returning-to-the-moon-can-benefit-commercial-military-and-political-sectors-a-space-policy-expert-explains-209300">Mariel Borowitz explains</a>, the U.S. now has widespread bipartisan political support for spacefaring – for the first time since the 1970s – and returning missions to the Moon is the first natural target. </p>
<p>Here are five stories that The Conversation U.S. has published over the past year about lunar exploration, including why people want to go back to the Moon, what Chandrayaan-3 found during its initial foray across the lunar surface and the ever-growing problem of lunar space junk. </p>
<h2>1. Why shoot for the Moon?</h2>
<p>Missions to the Moon <a href="https://theconversation.com/returning-to-the-moon-can-benefit-commercial-military-and-political-sectors-a-space-policy-expert-explains-209300">hold potential benefits</a> for a variety of sectors, including commercial, military and geopolitical. </p>
<p>“Ever since humans last left the Moon in 1972, many have dreamed about the days when people would return. But for decades, these efforts have hit political roadblocks,” <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aESo-coAAAAJ&hl=en">wrote Borowitz</a>. “This time, the United States’ plans to return to the Moon are likely to succeed – it has the cross-sector support and the strategic importance to ensure continuity, even during politically challenging times.”</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ocDzndmmE8I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NASA is planning to return to the Moon with Artemis missions. This video describes where on the Moon it may land and how it will decide.</span></figcaption>
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<p>While some of these <a href="https://theconversation.com/back-to-the-moon-a-space-lawyer-and-planetary-scientist-on-what-it-will-take-to-share-the-benefits-of-new-lunar-exploration-podcast-202415">potential uses</a> are incredibly far off – from <a href="https://theconversation.com/mining-the-moon-110744">mining the Moon for resources</a> to sending out <a href="https://www.airandspaceforces.com/raymond-foresees-cislunar-space-as-key-terrain-guardians-going-to-space/">military satellites</a> to orbit around the Moon – missions to the Moon in the near term will help inform scientists and stakeholders of future possibilities. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/returning-to-the-moon-can-benefit-commercial-military-and-political-sectors-a-space-policy-expert-explains-209300">Returning to the Moon can benefit commercial, military and political sectors – a space policy expert explains</a>
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<h2>2. Searching for sulfur</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/indias-chandrayaan-3-landed-on-the-south-pole-of-the-moon-a-space-policy-expert-explains-what-this-means-for-india-and-the-global-race-to-the-moon-212171">India’s Chandrayaan-3 lander touched down</a> on the Moon’s surface, just a few miles away from the lunar south pole, in late August 2023. </p>
<p><a href="https://robotsguide.com/robots/pragyan">Its rover, called Pragyan</a>, took measurements of the lunar surface and found the <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/publications/books/lunar_sourcebook/pdf/Chapter07.pdf">soil near the south pole</a> contains <a href="https://www.isro.gov.in/LIBSResults.html">a surprise – sulfur</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rrTtLze5Ydk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">India’s lunar rover Pragyan rolls out of the lander and onto the surface.</span></figcaption>
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<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wKuEBj0AAAAJ&hl=en">Jeffrey Gillis-Davis</a>, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/chandrayaan-3s-measurements-of-sulfur-open-the-doors-for-lunar-science-and-exploration-212950">physicist at Washington University in St. Louis, wrote</a>, future Moon missions or a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/nasa-s-artemis-base-camp-on-the-moon-will-need-light-water-elevation">future Moon base</a> could use lunar sulfur as an ingredient in everything from <a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19980001900/downloads/19980001900.pdf">fuel and fertilizer to concrete</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chandrayaan-3s-measurements-of-sulfur-open-the-doors-for-lunar-science-and-exploration-212950">Chandrayaan-3's measurements of sulfur open the doors for lunar science and exploration</a>
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<h2>3. Water in ice</h2>
<p>But <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-suspect-theres-ice-hiding-on-the-moon-and-a-host-of-missions-from-the-us-and-beyond-are-searching-for-it-216060">sulfur’s not the only resource</a> the lunar south pole could have to offer. For several years, scientists have predicted that the lunar south pole <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/ice/ice_moon.html">might have water</a> in the form of ice. And Chandrayaan-3’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/chandrayaan-3s-measurements-of-sulfur-open-the-doors-for-lunar-science-and-exploration-212950">sulfur discovery</a> gives scientists more insight into how and how recently ice might have formed on the surface.</p>
<p>Comets or <a href="https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac649c">volcanic activity</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemer.2021.125858">could have brought water</a> to the Moon years ago. If volcanic activity is the culprit for water’s appearance, scientists would also expect to see sulfur in higher levels, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kgXwvksAAAAJ&hl=en">wrote Paul Hayne</a>, an assistant professor of astrophysical and planetary sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder.</p>
<p>A host of future missions to the Moon, including <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/mission/viper/in-depth/">NASA’s VIPER mission</a> planned for 2024, will continue to investigate where ice could be hiding on the Moon. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-suspect-theres-ice-hiding-on-the-moon-and-a-host-of-missions-from-the-us-and-beyond-are-searching-for-it-216060">Scientists suspect there's ice hiding on the Moon, and a host of missions from the US and beyond are searching for it</a>
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<h2>4. Moon debris</h2>
<p>With all the Moon missions, <a href="https://www.jhuapl.edu/NewsStory/221205-apl-cislunar-traffic-management">both current and upcoming</a>, some experts have raised concerns about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-a-satellite-falls-on-your-house-space-law-protects-you-but-there-are-no-legal-penalties-for-leaving-junk-in-orbit-160757">increased space junk</a> in the “<a href="https://www.afrl.af.mil/Portals/90/Documents/RV/A%20Primer%20on%20Cislunar%20Space_Dist%20A_PA2021-1271.pdf?ver=vs6e0sE4PuJ51QC-15DEfg%3D%3D">cislunar space</a>” – or the space between Earth and the Moon and around the Moon. </p>
<p>NASA doesn’t currently track the space junk left behind from its missions, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-junk-in-earth-orbit-and-on-the-moon-will-increase-with-future-missions-but-nobodys-in-charge-of-cleaning-it-up-212421">this lack of oversight</a> has many people worried. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large, black telescope." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=997&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=997&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508150/original/file-20230203-7549-e3xoli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=997&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A team of students and professors at the University of Arizona built a telescope to track objects near the Moon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vishnu Reddy/University of Arizona</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>One team at the University of Arizona has started <a href="https://news.arizona.edu/story/75m-effort-seeks-prevent-lunar-traffic-jams">building a catalog of debris</a> left in this space. Team members started off by identifying a few large objects, and as their methods got better, they <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-lunar-missions-means-more-space-junk-around-the-moon-two-scientists-are-building-a-catalog-to-track-the-trash-196645">were able to see objects</a> as small as a cereal box. The team hopes this work will one day improve the sustainability of future lunar missions. </p>
<p>“While there is still a long way to go, these efforts are designed to ultimately form the basis for a catalog that will help lead to safer, more sustainable use of cislunar orbital space as humanity begins its expansion off of the Earth,” <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XCYhJqcAAAAJ&hl=en">writes Vishnu Reddy</a>, a professor of planetary science at the University of Arizona. </p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-lunar-missions-means-more-space-junk-around-the-moon-two-scientists-are-building-a-catalog-to-track-the-trash-196645">More lunar missions means more space junk around the Moon – two scientists are building a catalog to track the trash</a>
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<h2>5. Future flyers</h2>
<p>Early this year, <a href="https://spacenews.com/nasa-announces-crew-for-artemis-2-mission/">NASA announced</a> who will make up the crew of their <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/">Artemis II mission</a>. Set for late 2024, Artemis II will fly by the Moon and test the technology and equipment planned for use in future missions. It will also mark the <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-next-four-people-headed-to-the-moon-how-the-diverse-crew-of-artemis-ii-shows-nasas-plan-for-the-future-of-space-exploration-203214">first time people are close to the lunar surface</a> in over 50 years. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four astronauts in orange space suits with their helmets off." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Crew members of the Artemis II mission are NASA astronauts Christina Hammock Koch, Reid Wiseman and Victor Glover and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-astronauts-to-next-moon-mission-first-crew-under-artemis">NASA</a></span>
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<p>Three of the four crew members <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-next-four-people-headed-to-the-moon-how-the-diverse-crew-of-artemis-ii-shows-nasas-plan-for-the-future-of-space-exploration-203214">have spent time in space</a>, with the fourth having spent lots of time in spaceflight simulations. Each started their careers as a military pilot, just like all the astronauts of the Apollo missions. But this crew represents more racial and gender diversity than the astronauts of the Apollo era. </p>
<p>“Unlike the Apollo program of the 1960s and 1970s, with Artemis, NASA has placed a heavy emphasis on building a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/science/nasa-launch-artemis-1.html">politically sustainable lunar program</a> by fostering the participation of a diverse group of people and countries,” <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en">wrote Wendy Whitman Cobb</a>, a professor of strategy and security studies at Air University.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-next-four-people-headed-to-the-moon-how-the-diverse-crew-of-artemis-ii-shows-nasas-plan-for-the-future-of-space-exploration-203214">Meet the next four people headed to the Moon – how the diverse crew of Artemis II shows NASA's plan for the future of space exploration</a>
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<p><em>This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Chandrayaan-3’s successful landing on the Moon made 2023 a big year for lunar exploration, and future years will come with even more discoveries.Mary Magnuson, Assistant Science EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108592023-08-03T05:42:56Z2023-08-03T05:42:56ZApa itu UFO? Amerika Serikat menembak tiga objek misterius di tengah adanya kekhawatiran terhadap pesawat tak dikenal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540520/original/file-20230801-19-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Apakah itu burung? Sebuah pesawat? Balon udara yang dicurigai sebagai mata-mata Tiongkok?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinese-spy-balloon-flies-over-the-myrtle-beach-sc-united-news-photo/1246809673?phrase=balloon&adppopup=true">Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Menyusul <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-us-is-going-take-care-of-chinese-balloon-2023-02-04/">penembakan jatuh balon udara milik Cina pada 4 Februari 2023</a> yang dicurigai memata-matai Amerika Serikat (AS), pesawat-pesawat jet tempur AS telah menembak jatuh <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/military-shoots-high-altitude-object-lake-huron-officials/story?id=97068247">tiga objek lainnya</a> di dalam atau di dekat wilayah udara AS.</p>
<p>Ketika media bertanya kepada Glen VanHerck, jenderal Angkatan Udara yang bertanggung jawab untuk mengawasi wilayah udara Amerika Utara, tentang kejadian-kejadian ini, dia <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ruling-out-aliens-senior-us-general-says-not-ruling-out-anything-yet-2023-02-13/">menolak untuk mengesampingkan</a> adanya kekuatan asing yang bermain. Pejabat militer lainnya <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html">kemudian mengklarifikasi</a> bahwa asal-usul dunia lain bukanlah pertimbangan serius, tetapi komentar tersebut menyoroti kurangnya pengetahuan pemerintah Amerika Serikat tentang objek-objek ini.</p>
<p>Sebagai seorang <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en">pakar kebijakan luar angkasa</a>, saya sering dihadapkan pada pertanyaan-pertanyaan mengenai UFO dan makhluk hijau kecil. Namun, seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh beberapa kejadian baru-baru ini, UFO jauh lebih mungkin dibuat oleh manusia, daripada berasal dari suatu tempat yang jauh di alam semesta.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tangkapan layar dari video Angkatan Laut yang diambil oleh seorang pilot yang menunjukkan pesawat putih misterius di langit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pada 2020, Angkatan Laut AS merilis beberapa video tentang fenomena udara yang tidak dikenal, yang memicu ketertarikan publik dan pemerintah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/documents">U.S. Navy</a></span>
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<h2>Apa yang dimaksud dengan UFO?</h2>
<p>Benda terbang tak dikenal, atau disingkat UFO, adalah istilah yang secara historis digunakan untuk menggambarkan pesawat terbang yang tidak mudah diidentifikasi atau dijelaskan. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/unidentified-flying-object">Kegemaran UFO modern</a> di AS dimulai pada akhir tahun 1940-an dan awal 1950-an, bertepatan dengan perkembangan teknologi baru seperti roket dan rudal.</p>
<p>Saat ini, pemerintah AS menggunakan istilah fenomena udara tak dikenal, atau <em>unidentified aerial phenomena</em> (UAP). Perubahan ini sebagian untuk <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/space/aliens-ufos/uaps.htm">mencoba memisahkan</a> istilah tersebut dari alien fiksi ilmiah. Istilah ini juga mendorong studi ilmiah yang lebih besar dan mencerminkan fakta bahwa banyak dari “objek” ini yang akhirnya merupakan fenomena atmosfer yang aneh atau trik peralatan kamera.</p>
<h2>Memperhatikan dengan serius</h2>
<p>Ada ribuan penampakan UAP yang belum dikonfirmasi oleh publik tiap tahunnya, tetapi hingga saat ini tidak ada cara resmi bagi Amerika Serikat untuk melacak penampakan tersebut. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-intelligence-report-on-ufos-no-aliens-but-government-transparency-and-desire-for-better-data-might-bring-science-to-the-ufo-world-163059">Kurangnya minat tersebut mulai berubah</a> pada 2020 ketika Pentagon <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/politics/pentagon-ufo-videos/index.html">secara resmi merilis</a> tiga video yang diambil dari kokpit jet tempur yang menunjukkan objek tak dikenal yang bergerak secara misterius. </p>
<p>Tahun berikutnya, di 2021, Kongres <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">mengamanatkan pembuatan penilaian tentang UAP</a>. Sebagai bagian dari laporan ini, direktur intelijen nasional mengidentifikasi 144 laporan langsung tentang UAP dari penerbang militer dan sensor pemerintah antara 2004 dan 2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">Laporan tersebut</a> mengidentifikasi beberapa penjelasan potensial untuk UAP, termasuk gangguan - istilah umum yang mencakup, misalnya, burung, balon udara, dan pesawat tak berawak. Penjelasan lain termasuk fenomena atmosfer alami seperti kristal es dan fluktuasi termal, serta teknologi rahasia yang sedang dikembangkan oleh AS atau negara lain.</p>
<p>Kategori terakhir inilah yang telah menarik perhatian, dengan militer AS menembak <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pentagon-memo-says-object-shot-down-over-canada-was-a-small-metallic-balloon/ar-AA17rbnG">sejumlah balon udara</a> dan objek tak dikenal dalam seminggu terakhir. Negara-negara seperti Cina dan Rusia dapat mengumpulkan sejumlah besar informasi intelijen dengan menggunakan satelit, tetapi balon - dan kemungkinan teknologi lain yang belum diketahui oleh publik Amerika - merupakan cara lain untuk mengumpulkan data sensitif. Jika militer atau pemerintah AS tidak dapat mengidentifikasi teknologi baru, maka akan mudah untuk mengklasifikasikan sebuah objek sebagai UAP.</p>
<p>Pada 2022 saja, Pentagon <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/13/1149019140/ufo-report">menerima 247 laporan UAP baru</a>, sekitar setengahnya pada akhirnya dikaitkan dengan balon atau “entitas seperti balon.”</p>
<p>Pada saat yang sama, UAP juga mudah terlewatkan jika orang tidak tahu apa yang harus dicari, seperti yang terjadi pada <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64572324">balon mata-mata sebelumnya</a> yang telah dikirim Cina ke seluruh dunia.</p>
<p>Terlepas dari apakah UAP di masa depan berupa balon, teknologi rahasia, atau yang lainnya, tetap saja akan ada fokus nasional yang lebih besar untuk mempelajari UAP dan peningkatan kemampuan untuk mendeteksinya. Kemungkinan besar laporan akan terus berdatangan dan pesawat AS akan terus melacaknya.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Rahma Sekar Andini dari Universitas Negeri Malang menerjemahkan artikel ini dari bahasa Inggris</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy N. Whitman Cobb berafiliasi dengan Sekolah Studi Udara dan Antariksa Tingkat Lanjut Angkatan Udara AS. Pandangannya adalah pandangannya sendiri dan tidak mencerminkan pandangan Departemen Pertahanan atau komponennya.</span></em></p>Ada ribuan penampakan UFO - atau ‘fenomena udara tak dikenal’ sebagaimana pemerintah AS lebih suka menyebutnya - setiap tahun. Sebenarnya, apakah UFO itu? Apakah berasal dari luar angkasa?Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042482023-04-20T19:59:23Z2023-04-20T19:59:23ZSpaceX launches most powerful rocket in history in explosive debut – like many first liftoffs, Starship’s test was a successful failure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522218/original/file-20230420-1011-46fy37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6403%2C4204&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Starship, the most powerful rocket ever built, launched from a spaceport in Texas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SpaceXStarshipTestFlight/1b6cc6f972fc40678d74b21ec7aae320/photo?Query=starship%20spacex%20launch&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=69&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Eric Gay)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 20, 2023, a new SpaceX rocket called Starship exploded over the Gulf of Mexico three minutes into its first flight ever. SpaceX is calling the test launch a success, despite the fiery end result. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en">space policy expert</a>, I agree that the “rapid unscheduled disassembly” – the term SpaceX uses when its rockets explode – was a very successful failure.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large rocket standing next to a tower." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522219/original/file-20230420-25-atilr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The full Starship stack comprises a Starship spacecraft (in black) on top of a rocket dubbed Super Heavy (in silver) and is nearly 400 feet (120 meters) tall.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/195131646@N04/51912424446">Hotel Marmot/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The most powerful rocket ever built</h2>
<p>This launch was the first fully integrated test of SpaceX’s new Starship. Starship is the <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/">most powerful rocket ever developed</a> and is designed to be fully reusable. It is made of two different stages, or sections. The first stage, called Super Heavy, is a collection of 33 individual engines and provides <a href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/04/17/how-spacexs-starship-stacks-up-to-other-rockets/">more than twice the thrust</a> of a Saturn V, the rocket that sent astronauts to the Moon in the 1960s and 1970s.</p>
<p>The first stage is designed to get the rocket to about 40 miles (65 kilometers) above Earth. Once Super Heavy’s job is done, it is supposed to separate from the rest of the craft and land safely back on the surface to be used again. At that point the second stage, called the Starship spacecraft, is supposed to ignite its own engines to carry the payload – whether people, satellites or anything else – into orbit.</p>
<h2>An explosive first flight</h2>
<p>While parts of Starship have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/16/science/spacex-starship-rocket-launch.html">tested previously</a>, the launch on April 20, 2023, was the <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-rocket-super-heavy-launch-what-time">first fully integrated test</a> with the Starship spacecraft stacked on top of the Super Heavy rocket. If it had been successful, once the first stage was spent, it would have separated from the upper stage and crashed into the Gulf of Mexico. Starship would then have continued on, eventually crashing 155 miles (250 kilometers) off of Hawaii.</p>
<p>During the SpaceX livestream, the team stated that the primary goal of this mission was to get the rocket off the launch pad. It accomplished that goal and more. Starship flew for <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-space-launch">more than three minutes</a>, passing through what engineers call “max Q” – the moment at which a rocket experiences the most physical stress from acceleration and air resistance.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A cloud of fire and smoke in the sky with pieces falling Earthward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522220/original/file-20230420-1377-gg5xm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Starship spacecraft and Super Hheavy rocket were unable to separate during the flight, so engineers blew up the full rocket.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SpaceXStarshipTestFlight/d9babe8dbe424e19869d3283a61fc199/photo?Query=starship%20spacex%20launch&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=69&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Eric Gay</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to SpaceX, a few things went wrong with the launch. First, <a href="https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1649122093391282197">multiple engines went out</a> sometime before the point at which the Starship spacecraft and the Super Heavy rocket were supposed to separate from each other. The two stages were also unable to separate at the predetermined moment, and with the two stages stuck together, the rocket began to tumble end over end. It is still unclear what specifically caused this failure.</p>
<p>Starship is almost 400 feet (120 meters) tall and weighs 11 million pounds (4.9 million kilograms). An out-of-control rocket full of highly flammable fuel is a very dangerous object, so to prevent any harm, SpaceX engineers triggered the self-destruct mechanism and blew up the entire rocket over the Gulf of Mexico. </p>
<p>All modern rockets have mechanisms built into them that allow engineers to <a href="https://www.patrick.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2666657/new-flight-termination-system-improves-launch-tempo/">safely destroy the rocket in flight</a> if need be. SpaceX itself has <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5Vw2ZDe-G0">blown up many of its own rockets</a> during testing. </p>
<h2>Success or failure?</h2>
<p>Getting to space is hard, and it is not at all unusual for new rockets to experience problems. In the past two years, both <a href="https://www.space.com/south-korea-nuri-rocket-launch-failure">South Korea</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/japan-space-rocket-h3-failure-observation-satellite-dc137cb55bb4b72537508f1319989ce1">Japan</a> have attempted to launch new rockets that also failed to reach orbit. Commercial companies such as <a href="https://spacenews.com/virgin-orbit-elaborates-on-potential-cause-of-launcherone-failure/">Virgin Orbit</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/23/science/relativity-space-launch-terran.html">Relativity Space</a> have also lost rockets recently. None of these were crewed missions, and in most of these failed launches, flight engineers purposefully destroyed the rockets after problems arose.</p>
<p>SpaceX’s approach to testing is different from that of other groups. Its company philosophy is to <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/elon-musk-says-spacex-driving-toward-orbital-starship-flight-in-2020/">fail fast</a>, find problems and fix them with the next rocket. This is different from the more <a href="https://280group.com/product-management-blog/behind-the-product-nasa-sls-vs-spacex-starship/#:%7E:text=SLS%20has%20a%20payload%20capacity,known%20as%20the%20waterfall%20method.">traditional approach</a> taken by organizations such as NASA that spend far more time identifying and planning for possible problems before attempting a launch.</p>
<p>The traditional approach tends to be slow. The development of NASA’s Space Launch System – the rocket that will <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-next-four-people-headed-to-the-moon-how-the-diverse-crew-of-artemis-ii-shows-nasas-plan-for-the-future-of-space-exploration-203214">take astronauts to the Moon</a> as part of the Artemis program – took more than 10 years before its <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasas-artemis-1-mission-to-the-moon-sets-the-stage-for-routine-space-exploration-beyond-earths-orbit-heres-what-to-expect-and-why-its-important-189447">first launch this past November</a>. SpaceX’s method has allowed the company to move much faster but can be costlier because of the time and resources it takes to build new rockets. </p>
<p>SpaceX engineers will look to identify the specific cause of the problem so that they can fix it for the next test launch. With this approach, launches like this first Starship test are successful failures that will help SpaceX reach its eventual goal of sending astronauts to Mars.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components.</span></em></p>The launch of a new rocket is always an exciting event. SpaceX’s ‘go fast and fail’ approach means that even though the test ended with engineers blowing up the rocket, it was a valuable first flight.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034732023-04-12T12:11:31Z2023-04-12T12:11:31ZIs the US in a space race against China?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520344/original/file-20230411-24-ym4ttx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C90%2C4898%2C2937&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both the U.S. and China have plans to establish bases on the Moon in the near future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/two-astronauts-on-the-moon-an-american-flag-in-royalty-free-image/103405591?phrase=two%20flags%20on%20moon&adppopup=true">Caspar Benson/fStop via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Headlines proclaiming the rise of a new “space race” <a href="https://theweek.com/space/1019765/the-new-space-race#:%7E:text=The%20original%20space%20race%20was,with%20a%20new%20competitor%3A%20China.">between the U.S. and China</a> have become common in news coverage following many of the exciting launches in recent years. Experts have pointed to China’s <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/584314-us-china-space-cooperation-is-up-in-the-air-more-than-ever/">rapid advancements</a> in space as evidence of an emerging landscape where China is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/01/we-better-watch-out-nasa-boss-sounds-alarm-on-chinese-moon-ambitions-00075803">directly competing</a> with the U.S. for supremacy.</p>
<p>This idea of a space race between China and the U.S. sounds convincing given the broader narrative of China’s rise, but how accurate is it? As a professor who <a href="https://faculty.af.edu/esploro/profile/svetla_benitzhak">studies space and international relations</a>, my research aims to quantify the power and capabilities of different nations in space. When I look at various capacities, the data paints a much more complex picture than a tight space race between the U.S. and China. At least for now, the reality looks more like what I call a complex hegemony – one state, the U.S., is still <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97711-5_14">dominating in key space capabilities</a>, and this lead is further amplified by a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2021.101444">strong network of partners</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A rocket taking off." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SpaceX rockets carry hundreds of private satellites into orbit each year from the seven active U.S. spaceports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-carrying-a-batch-of-56-starlink-news-photo/1249311447?adppopup=true">SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A clear leader makes for a boring race</h2>
<p>Calling the current situation a race implies that the U.S. and China have roughly equal capabilities in space. But in several key areas, the U.S. is far ahead not only of China, but of all other spacefaring nations combined.</p>
<p>Starting with spending: In 2021, the U.S. space budget was roughly <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/resources/government-space-spending-increases-19-from-2020-to-2021/">US$59.8 billion</a>. China has been investing heavily in space and rocket technology over the last decade and has doubled its spending in the last five years. But with an estimated budget of <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/resources/government-space-spending-increases-19-from-2020-to-2021/">$16.18 billion</a> in 2021, it is still spending less than a third of the U.S. budget.</p>
<p>The U.S. also leads significantly in the number of active satellites. Currently, there are <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database">5,465 total operational satellites</a> in orbit around Earth. The U.S. operates 3,433, or 63% of those. In contrast, China has 541.</p>
<p>Similarly, the U.S. has more <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/spaceports-of-the-world/">active spaceports</a> than China. With <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/spaceports-of-the-world/">seven operational launch sites at home and abroad</a> and at least <a href="https://www.faa.gov/space/spaceports_by_state">13 additional</a> spaceports <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/worlds-rocket-launch-sites-fullsize.html">in development</a>, the U.S. has more options to launch payloads into various orbits. In contrast, China has only <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/data/spaceports-of-the-world/">four operational spaceports</a> with <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/worlds-rocket-launch-sites-fullsize.html">two more planned</a>, all located within its own territory.</p>
<h2>Parity with nuance</h2>
<p>While the U.S. may have a clear advantage over China in many areas of space, in some measures, the differences between the two countries are more nuanced.</p>
<p>In 2021, for instance, China attempted <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/register/the-space-report-2021-quarter-4-pdf-download/">55 orbital launches</a>, four more than the U.S.’s 51. The total numbers may be similar, but the rockets carried very different payloads to orbit. The vast majority – 84% – of Chinese launches had government or military payloads intended mostly for electronic intelligence and optical imaging. Meanwhile, in the U.S., 61% of launches were for nonmilitary, academic or commercial use, predominantly for Earth observation or telecommunications.</p>
<p>Space stations are another area where there are important differences hiding beneath the surface. Since the 1990s, the U.S. has worked with <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/cooperation/index.html">14 other nations</a>, including Russia, to operate the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/facts-and-figures">International Space Station</a>. The ISS is quite large, with 16 modules, and has driven <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/iss-20-years-20-breakthroughs">technological and scientific breakthroughs</a>. But the ISS is now 24 years old, and participating nations are planning to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-provides-updated-international-space-station-transition-plan">retire it in 2030</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram of the Tiangong space station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Construction of China’s Tiangong space station began in 2021, and the small, three-module station opened for research in December 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tiangong_Space_Station_config_2022_EN.jpg#/media/File:Tiangong_Space_Station_config_2022_EN.jpg">Shujianyang/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Chinese <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/science/tiangong-space-station.html">Tiangong space station</a> is the new kid on the block. Construction was only <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-new-space-station-opens-for-business-in-an-increasingly-competitive-era-of-space-activity-195882">completed in late 2022</a>, and it is much smaller – with only three modules. China has built and launched all of the different parts and remains the sole operator of the station, despite <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/29/c_137213186.htm">having invited others to join</a>.</p>
<p>China is undoubtedly expanding its space capabilities, and in a report published in August 2022, the Pentagon <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/08/china-could-overtake-us-space-without-urgent-action-report/376261/">predicted that China would surpass U.S. capabilities</a> in space as early as 2045. However, it is unlikely that the U.S. will remain stagnant, as it continues to increase funding for space.</p>
<h2>Allies as force multipliers</h2>
<p>A major point of difference between the U.S. and China is the nature and number of international collaborations. </p>
<p>For decades, NASA has been fruitfully cultivating <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/oiir/nasa-partners-worldwide">international</a> and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/subject/3124/commercial-partners/">commercial</a> partnerships in everything from developing specific space technologies to flying humans into space. The U.S. government has also <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/spacecom-expands-allied-industy-cooperation-gen-dickinson/">signed 169 space data sharing agreements</a> with 33 states and intergovernmental organizations, 129 with commercial partners and seven with academic institutions.</p>
<p>China also has allies that help with space – most notably <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-26/china-russia-alliance-in-space-stumbles-in-bid-to-surpass-the-us">Russia</a> and members of the <a href="http://www.apsco.int/">Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization</a>, including Iran, Pakistan, Thailand and Turkey. China’s collaborators are, however, fewer in number and have far less developed space capabilities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man signing a document with a Brazilian and American flag on the desk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In just two years, 24 nations, including Brazil, have joined the U.S.-led Artemis Accords. This international agreement outlines the goals of space exploration in the near future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Assinatura_de_termo_de_coopera%C3%A7%C3%A3o_-_Programa_Artemis_BR_US_(50720570051).jpg#/media/File:Assinatura_de_termo_de_coopera%C3%A7%C3%A3o_-_Programa_Artemis_BR_US_(50720570051).jpg">Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Efforts to return to the surface of the Moon excellently highlight this difference in ally support and synergy. Both the U.S. and China have plans to send people to the surface of the Moon and to establish lunar bases in the near future. These competing lunar aims are often <a href="https://time.com/longform/race-to-the-moon/">cited as evidence of the space race</a>, but they are very different in terms of partnerships and scope.</p>
<p>In 2019, <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-to-cooperate-on-lunar-orbiter-landing-missions/">Russia and China agreed</a> to jointly go to the Moon by 2028. Russia is contributing its Luna landers and Oryol crewed orbiters, while China is improving its Chang’e robotic spacecraft. Their future International Lunar Research Station is “<a href="https://www.space.com/russia-china-moon-research-station-agreement">open to all interested parties and international partners</a>,” but, to date, no additional countries have committed to the Chinese and Russian effort.</p>
<p>In contrast, since 2020, 24 nations have joined the U.S.-led <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Artemis Accords</a>. This international agreement outlines shared <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">principles of cooperation</a> for future space activity and, through the Artemis Program, specifically aims to return people to the Moon by 2025 and establish a Moon base and lunar space station soon after.</p>
<p>In addition to the broad international participation, the Artemis Program has contracted with a staggering <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/solicitations/tipping_points/2020_selections">number of private companies</a> to develop a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-announces-partners-to-advance-tipping-point-technologies-for-the-moon-mars">range of technologies</a>, from <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-selects-five-us-companies-to-mature-artemis-lander-concepts">lunar landers</a> to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-icon-advance-lunar-construction-technology-for-moon-missions">lunar construction methods</a> and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/centennial_challenges/nasa-announces-newest-winners-in-break-the-ice-lunar-challenge.html">more</a>.</p>
<h2>China is not the only game in town</h2>
<p>While China may seem like the main competitor of the U.S. in space, other countries have space capabilities and aspirations that rival those of China.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64002977">India</a> spends billions on space and plans to <a href="https://in.mashable.com/science/44883/india-is-returning-to-the-moon-chandrayaan-3-mission-will-launch-this-year">return to the Moon</a>, possibly <a href="https://www.secretsofuniverse.in/lunar-exploration-mission-isro-jaxa/">with Japan</a>, in the near future. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01252-7">South Korea, Israel, Japan, the United Arab Emirates</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/turkey-sets-sights-on-moon-mission-in-2023">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/27263-germany-plans-moon-mission">Germany</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-told-to-aim-for-a-moon-mission/">the European Union</a> are also planning independent lunar missions. Japan has developed impressive technological space capabilities, including rendezvous proximity technology to send a <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/hayabusa-2/in-depth/">spacecraft to an asteroid and bring samples back to Earth</a>, that rival and even surpass <a href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-shijian-21-spacecraft-docked-with-and-towed-a-dead-satellite/">those of China</a>.</p>
<p>In the past, the space race was about who could reach the stars first and return home. Today, the goal has shifted to surviving and even thriving in the harsh environment of space. I believe it is not surprising that, despite its decisive lead, the U.S. has partnered with others to go to the Moon and beyond. China is doing the same, but on a smaller scale. The picture that emerges is not of a “race” but of complex system with the U.S. as a leader working closely with extensive networks of partners.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Defense, or of any organization the author is affiliated with, including the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Space Force</span></em></p>China has invested massively in its space capabilities in recent years and is now a major competitor with the US. But according to a space policy expert, the US still dominates space by most measures.Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032142023-04-03T20:37:33Z2023-04-03T20:37:33ZMeet the next four people headed to the Moon – how the diverse crew of Artemis II shows NASA’s plan for the future of space exploration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519113/original/file-20230403-14-8kpwds.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=80%2C304%2C3950%2C3024&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Artemis II mission will send four astronauts on a flyby of the Moon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/as11-44-6552.jpeg">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 3, 2023, <a href="https://spacenews.com/nasa-announces-crew-for-artemis-2-mission/">NASA announced</a> the four astronauts who will make up the crew of Artemis II, which is scheduled to launch in late 2024. The Artemis II mission will send these four astronauts on a 10-day mission that culminates in a flyby of the Moon. While they won’t head to the surface, they will be the first people to leave Earth’s immediate vicinity and be the first near the Moon in more than 50 years. </p>
<p>This mission will test the technology and equipment that’s necessary for future lunar landings and is a significant step on NASA’s planned journey back to the surface of the Moon. As part of this next era in lunar and space exploration, NASA has outlined a few clear goals. The agency is hoping to <a href="https://www.khou.com/article/tech/science/space/artemis-1-scrubbed-launch/285-480cc9b4-ddbd-40f4-a1c1-192c1effe75d">inspire young people</a> to get interested in space, to make the broader Artemis program more economically and politically sustainable and, finally, to continue encouraging international collaboration on future missions. </p>
<p>From my perspective as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en">space policy expert</a>, the four Artemis II astronauts fully embody these goals.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four astronauts in orange space suits with their helmets off." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519114/original/file-20230403-16-y1n19n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crew members of the Artemis II mission are NASA astronauts Christina Hammock Koch, Reid Wiseman and Victor Glover and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-astronauts-to-next-moon-mission-first-crew-under-artemis">NASA</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Who are the four astronauts?</h2>
<p>The four members of the Artemis II crew are highly experienced, with three of them having flown in space previously. The one rookie flying onboard is notably representing Canada, making this an international mission, as well.</p>
<p>The commander of the mission will be <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/astronauts/biographies/g-reid-wiseman/biography">Reid Wiseman</a>, a naval aviator and test pilot. On his previous mission to the International Space Station, he spent 165 days in space and completed a record of 82 hours of experiments in just one week. Wiseman was also the chief of the U.S. astronaut office from 2020 to 2023.</p>
<p>Serving as pilot is <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-team/">Victor Glover</a>. After flying more than 3,000 hours in more than 40 different aircraft, Glover was selected for the astronaut corps in 2013. He was the pilot for the Crew-1 mission, the first mission that used a SpaceX rocket and capsule to bring astronauts to the International Space Station, and served as a flight engineer on the ISS.</p>
<p>The lone woman on the crew is mission specialist <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/astronauts/biographies/christina-hammock-koch/biography">Christina Hammock Koch</a>. She has spent 328 days in space, more than any other woman, across the three ISS expeditions. She has also participated in six different spacewalks, including the first three all-women spacewalks. Koch is an engineer by trade, having previously worked at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.</p>
<p>The crew will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadian-astronaut-jeremy-hansen-will-be-among-the-next-humans-to-fly-to-the-moon-201633">rounded out by a Canadian</a>, <a href="https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/astronauts/canadian/active/bio-jeremy-hansen.asp">Jeremy Hansen</a>. Though a spaceflight rookie, he has participated in space simulations like <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NEEMO/index.html">NEEMO 19</a>, in which he lived in a facility on the ocean floor to simulate deep space exploration. Before being selected to Canada’s astronaut corps in 2009, he was an F-18 pilot in the Royal Canadian Air Force.</p>
<p>These four astronauts have followed pretty typical paths to space. Like the Apollo astronauts, three of them began their careers as military pilots. Two, Wiseman and Glover, were trained test pilots, just as most of the Apollo astronauts were. </p>
<p>Mission specialist Koch, with her engineering expertise, is more typical of modern astronauts. The position of <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/AUPress/Book-Reviews/Display/Article/1869653/come-fly-with-us-nasas-payload-specialist-program/">mission or payload specialist</a> was created for the space shuttle program, making spaceflight possible for those with more scientific backgrounds.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An artist's impression of a spacecraft flying over the surface of the Moon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1200&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1200&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519116/original/file-20230403-22-qw7kfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The crew will make a single flyby of the Moon in an Orion capsule.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasaorion/32125696615/">NASA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<h2>A collaborative, diverse future</h2>
<p>Unlike the Apollo program of the 1960s and 1970s, with Artemis, NASA has placed a heavy emphasis on building a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/science/nasa-launch-artemis-1.html">politically sustainable lunar program</a> by fostering the participation of a diverse group of people and countries.</p>
<p>The participation of other countries in NASA missions – Canada in this case – <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/03/24/remarks-by-president-biden-and-prime-minister-trudeau-at-gala-dinner/">is particularly important</a> for the Artemis program and the Artemis II crew. International collaboration is beneficial for a number of reasons. First, it allows NASA to lean on the strengths and expertise of engineers, researchers and space agencies of U.S. allies and divide up the production of technologies and costs. It also helps the U.S. continue to provide international leadership in space as <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasas-head-warned-that-china-may-try-to-claim-the-moon-two-space-scholars-explain-why-thats-unlikely-to-happen-186614">competition with other countries</a> – notably China – heats up. </p>
<p>The crew of Artemis II is also quite diverse compared with the Apollo astronauts. NASA has often pointed out that the Artemis program will send the first woman and the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/">first person of color to the Moon</a>. With Koch and Glover on board, Artemis II is the first step in fulfilling that promise and moving toward the goal of inspiring future generations of space explorers.</p>
<p>The four astronauts aboard Artemis II will be the first humans to return to the vicinity of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/apollo-17/">the Moon since 1972</a>. The flyby will take the Orion capsule in one pass around the far side of the Moon. During the flight, the crew will monitor the spacecraft and test a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/scan/opticalcommunications/o2o/">new communication system</a> that will allow them to send more data and communicate more easily with Earth than previous systems.</p>
<p>If all goes according to plan, in late 2025 Artemis III will mark humanity’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/artemis-iii/">return to the lunar surface</a>, this time also with a diverse crew. While the Artemis program still has a way to go before humans set foot on the Moon once again, the announcement of the Artemis II crew shows how NASA intends to get there in a diverse and collaborative way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components.</span></em></p>The Artemis II mission is scheduled for launch in late 2024 and is a critical step towards NASA’s goals of establishing a permanent human presence on and near the Moon.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998552023-02-15T16:29:36Z2023-02-15T16:29:36ZWhat is a UFO? The US shot down three mysterious objects as interest and concern increase over unidentified craft<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509884/original/file-20230213-409-8uo0gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C393%2C6211%2C3906&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is it a bird? A plane? A suspected Chinese spy balloon?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinese-spy-balloon-flies-over-the-myrtle-beach-sc-united-news-photo/1246809673?phrase=balloon&adppopup=true">Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the heels of the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-us-is-going-take-care-of-chinese-balloon-2023-02-04/">Feb. 4, 2023, shooting down of a Chinese balloon</a> suspected of spying on the U.S., American fighter jets have shot down <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/military-shoots-high-altitude-object-lake-huron-officials/story?id=97068247">three additional objects</a> in or near U.S. airspace.</p>
<p>When the media asked Glen VanHerck, the Air Force general responsible for overseeing North American airspace, about these events, he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ruling-out-aliens-senior-us-general-says-not-ruling-out-anything-yet-2023-02-13/">refused to rule out</a> extraterrestrial forces at play. Other military officials <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html">later clarified</a> that otherworldly origins aren’t a serious consideration, but the comment highlighted the U.S. government’s lack of knowledge about these objects.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en">space policy expert</a>, I’m often confronted with questions about UFOs and little green people. However, as these recent episodes have shown, a UFO is far more likely to be human-made, rather than originating from some faraway place in the universe.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot from a Navy video taken by a pilot showing a white, mysterious craft in the sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509908/original/file-20230213-16-w5i76x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, the U.S. Navy released multiple videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking interest in the public and government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/documents">U.S. Navy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does UFO mean?</h2>
<p>Unidentified flying object, or UFO for short, is the term that has historically been used to describe aircraft that aren’t easily identified or explained. The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/unidentified-flying-object">modern UFO craze</a> in the U.S. dates to the late 1940s and early 1950s, coinciding with the development of new technology like rockets and missiles.</p>
<p>Today, the U.S. government uses the phrase unidentified aerial phenomena, or UAPs. This change is partially to <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/space/aliens-ufos/uaps.htm">try to disassociate</a> the term from science fiction aliens. The term also encourages greater scientific study and reflects the fact that many of these “objects” end up being strange atmospheric phenomenon or tricks of camera equipment.</p>
<h2>Taking a serious look</h2>
<p>There are thousands of unconfirmed UAP sightings by the public each year, but until recently there was no formal way for the U.S. to track these sightings. That <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-intelligence-report-on-ufos-no-aliens-but-government-transparency-and-desire-for-better-data-might-bring-science-to-the-ufo-world-163059">lack of interest began to change</a> in 2020 when the Pentagon <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/politics/pentagon-ufo-videos/index.html">officially released</a> three videos taken from the cockpits of fighter jets showing unidentified objects moving in mysterious ways. </p>
<p>The following year, in 2021, Congress <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">mandated the creation of an assessment on UAPs</a>. As part of this report, the director of national intelligence identified 144 firsthand accounts of UAPs from military aviators and government sensors between 2004 and 2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf">The report</a> identifies several potential explanations for UAPs, including clutter – an umbrella term that includes, for example, birds, balloons and drones. Other explanations include natural atmospheric phenomena such as ice crystals and thermal fluctuations, as well as secret technologies being developed by the U.S. or other nations.</p>
<p>It is this last category that has drawn attention, with the U.S. military shooting down a <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pentagon-memo-says-object-shot-down-over-canada-was-a-small-metallic-balloon/ar-AA17rbnG">number of balloons</a> and unidentified objects in the last week. Countries like China and Russia can gather a significant amount of intelligence using satellites, but balloons – and potentially other technologies as yet unknown by the American public – represent another way to collect sensitive data. If the U.S. military or government can’t identify a new technology, it is easy to classify an object as a UAP.</p>
<p>In 2022 alone, the Pentagon <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/13/1149019140/ufo-report">received 247 new UAP reports</a>, about half of which were eventually attributed to balloons or “balloon-like entities.”</p>
<p>At the same time, it’s also easy to miss UAPs if people don’t know what to look for, as appears to be the case with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64572324">previous spy balloons</a> that China has sent around the world. </p>
<p>Whether future UAPs are balloons, secret technology or something else, there will continue to be a greater national focus on studying UAPs and an increasing ability to detect them. It is likely that reports will continue to pour in and U.S. aircraft will keep tracking them down.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199855/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy N. Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components.</span></em></p>There are thousands of sightings of UFOs – or ‘unidentified aerial phenomena’ as the US government prefers to call them – every year.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1908882022-09-20T19:02:43Z2022-09-20T19:02:43ZNASA is crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to test a plan that could one day save Earth from catastrophe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485384/original/file-20220919-2878-9zxomf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C172%2C4764%2C2522&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Double Asteroid Redirection Test is the first planetary defense experiment ever attempted.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/stay-tuned-for-dart">NASA/JHUAPL/Steve Gribben</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Sept. 26, 2022, NASA plans to change an asteroid’s orbit. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/asteroids/didymos/in-depth/">large binary asteroid Didymos</a> and its moonlet Dimorphos currently pose no threat to Earth. But by crashing a 1,340-pound (610-kilogram) probe into Didymos’ moon at a speed of approximately 14,000 mph (22,500 kph), NASA is going to complete the world’s first full-scale planetary defense mission as a proof of concept. This mission is called the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/dart">Double Asteroid Redirection Test</a>, or DART.</p>
<p>I am a scholar who <a href="https://svetlabenitzhak.com/2017/07/10/about/">studies space and international security</a>, and it is my job to ask what the likelihood really is of an object crashing into the planet – and whether governments are spending enough money to prevent such an event.</p>
<p>To find the answers to these questions, one has to know what near-Earth objects are out there. To date, NASA has tracked only an estimated <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">40% of the bigger ones</a>. Surprise asteroids have visited Earth in the past and will undoubtedly do so in the future. Experiments like the DART mission may help prepare humanity for such an event.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing thousands of blue orbits overlapping with Earth's own orbit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The orbits of thousands of asteroids (in blue) cross paths with the orbits of planets (in white), including Earth’s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210829.html">NASA/JPL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The threat from asteroids and comets</h2>
<p>Millions of cosmic bodies, like asteroids and comets, orbit the Sun and often crash into the Earth. Most of these are too small to pose a threat, but some can be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/16/opinion/16iht-edschweick.4929643.html">cause for concern</a>. Near-Earth objects include asteroids and comets whose orbits will bring them <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/neo_groups.html">within 120 million miles</a> (193 million kilometers) of the Sun.</p>
<p>Astronomers consider a near-Earth object a threat if it will <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/neo_groups.html">come within 4.6 million miles</a> (7.4 million kilometers) of the planet and if it is at least 460 feet (140 meters) in diameter. If a celestial body of this size crashed into Earth, it could destroy an entire city and cause extreme regional devastation. Larger objects – 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) or more – could have global effects and even cause mass extinctions.</p>
<p>The most famous and destructive celestial impact took place 65 million years ago when an asteroid with a 6-mile (10-kilometer) diameter <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691169668/t-rex-and-the-crater-of-doom">crashed into what is now the Yucatán Peninsula</a>. It <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177265">wiped out most plant and animal species</a> on Earth, including the dinosaurs.</p>
<p>But smaller objects can also cause significant damage. In 1908, an approximately 164-foot (50-meter) celestial body exploded over the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0019103518305104?via%3Dihub">Podkamennaya Tunguska River</a> in Siberia. It <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/the-tunguska-event-1.742329">leveled</a> more than 80 million trees over 830 square miles (2,100 square kilometers). In 2013, an asteroid only 65 feet (20 meters) across burst in the atmosphere 20 miles (32 kilometers) above Chelyabinsk, Russia. It released the equivalent of 30 Hiroshima bombs’ worth of energy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1242642">injured over 1,100 people</a> and caused US$33 million in damage.</p>
<p>The likely next asteroid of substantial size to potentially hit Earth is asteroid 2005 ED224. When the 164-foot (50-meter) asteroid passes by on March 11, 2023, there is roughly a <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2005%20ED224">1 in 500,000 chance of impact</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="lWCut" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lWCut/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Watching the skies</h2>
<p>While the <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/NEO-Impact-Threat-Protocols-Jan2021.pdf">chances of a larger cosmic body striking Earth are small</a>, the devastation <a href="http://mpainesyd.com/idisk/Public/rocks_from_space/chapman4oecd.pdf">would be enormous</a>.</p>
<p>Congress recognized this threat, and in <a href="https://archive.org/details/nasa_techdoc_19920025001">the 1998 Spaceguard Survey</a>, it tasked NASA to find and track 90% of the estimated total of near-Earth objects 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) across or bigger within 10 years. NASA <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/WISE/multimedia/gallery/neowise/pia14734.html">surpassed the 90% goal</a> in 2011. </p>
<p>In 2005, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-119/pdf/STATUTE-119-Pg2895.pdf">Congress passed another bill</a> requiring NASA to expand its search and track at least 90% of all near-Earth objects 460 feet (140 meters) or larger by the end of 2020. That year has come and gone and, mostly because of <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12842/defending-planet-earth-near-earth-object-surveys-and-hazard-mitigation">a lack of financial resources</a>, only <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">40% of those objects have been mapped</a>. </p>
<p>As of Sept. 18, 2022, <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/totals.html">astronomers have located 29,724</a> near-Earth asteroids, of which 10,189 are 460 feet (140 meters) or larger in diameter and 855 are at least 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) across. About <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">30 new objects</a> are added each week.</p>
<p>A new mission <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5503/text#toc-HB5A37F19BF1E40DC8CF66F29EAE2DD66">funded by Congress in 2018</a> is scheduled in 2026 to launch an infrared <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-approves-asteroid-hunting-space-telescope-to-continue-development">space-based telescope</a> – NEO Surveyor – dedicated to <a href="https://neos.arizona.edu/">searching for potentially dangerous asteroids</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Yl2f46L5DJ4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Smaller asteroids, like the one that exploded over Russia in 2013, can strike Earth without warning, but larger, more dangerous objects have surprised astronomers too.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cosmic surprises</h2>
<p>We can prevent a disaster only if we know it is coming, and asteroids have sneaked up on Earth before. </p>
<p>A so-called “city-killer” asteroid the size of a football field passed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/07/26/it-snuck-up-us-city-killer-asteroid-just-missed-earth-scientists-almost-didnt-detect-it-time/">less than 45,000 miles</a> (72,420 kilometers) from Earth in 2019. An asteroid the size of a 747 jet <a href="https://www.jpost.com/science/747-sized-asteroid-skimmed-by-earth-and-scientists-didnt-see-it-coming-680052">came close</a> in 2021, as did an <a href="https://www.space.com/16263-asteroid-2012lz1-size-earth-flyby.html">asteroid</a> 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) wide in 2012. Each of these was discovered only <a href="https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Asteroid_s_surprise_close_approach_illustrates_need_for_more_eyes_on_the_sky">about a day</a> before it passed Earth. </p>
<p>Research suggests that Earth’s rotation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2021.114735">creates a blind spot</a>, hiding some asteroids from detection or making them appear stationary. This may be a problem, as some surprise asteroids do not miss us. In 2008, astronomers spotted <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/2008tc3.html">a small asteroid</a> only 19 hours before it crashed into rural Sudan. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/astronomers-have-discovered-a-surprise-asteroid-orbiting-between-mercury-and-venus">recent discovery</a> of an asteroid 1.2 miles (2 kilometers) in diameter suggests that there are still big objects lurking.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A massive crater in the desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485432/original/file-20220919-13086-xyu71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This crater near Flagstaff, Arizona, was created when an asteroid estimated to be 160 feet (50 meters) across crashed into Earth around 50,000 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Barringer_Crater_aerial_photo_by_USGS.jpg#/media/File:Barringer_Crater_aerial_photo_by_USGS.jpg">USGS/D. Roddy via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>To protect the planet from cosmic dangers, early detection is key. At the 2021 Planetary Defense Conference, scientists recommended a minimum of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-asteroid-simulation-reveals-need-years-of-warning-2021-5">five to 10 years’ preparation time</a> to mount a successful defense against hazardous asteroids. </p>
<p>If astronomers find a dangerous object, there are <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12842/defending-planet-earth-near-earth-object-surveys-and-hazard-mitigation">four ways</a> to mitigate a disaster. The first involves regional first-aid and evacuation measures. A second approach would involve sending a spacecraft to fly near a small- or medium-sized asteroid; the gravity of the craft would slowly change the object’s orbit. To <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12842/defending-planet-earth-near-earth-object-surveys-and-hazard-mitigation">change a bigger asteroid’s path</a>, we can either crash something into it at high speed or detonate a nuclear warhead nearby. </p>
<p>The DART mission will be the first-ever attempt to deflect a large asteroid. But this will not be the first time humanity has sent something to an asteroid. NASA’s Deep Space Impact mission <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/main/index.html">crashed a probe into the comet 9P/Tempel</a> in 2005 to take scientific measurements of the comet, and in 2018 Japan’s Hayabusa2 mission collected samples from the asteroid Ryugu and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hayabusa2-spacecraft-is-about-to-drop-a-chunk-of-asteroid-in-the-australian-outback-151280">brought them back to Earth</a>, but neither of these was designed as a planetary defense test.</p>
<p>The DART mission should generate a lot of useful information. This data will come from a <a href="https://civspace.jhuapl.edu/destinations/instruments/draco">camera aboard the DART spacecraft</a> that will <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/dart-gets-its-wings-spacecraft-integrated-with-innovative-solar-array-technology-and-camera">send images back to Earth</a> up until the time of impact. In addition, a <a href="https://www.space.com/liciacube-readies-to-observe-dart-hit-asteroid">tiny satellite called LICIACube</a> that was deployed from DART on Sept. 11, 2022, will take photos of the impact. A follow-up mission from the European Space Agency, called Hera, will <a href="https://www.heramission.space/">launch in 2024 and rendezvous with Didymos</a> in 2026 to begin collecting data.</p>
<h2>Spending on planetary defense</h2>
<p>In 2021, NASA’s planetary defense budget was <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/updated_fy_2021_spend_plan_june_2021.pdf">$158 million</a>, just <a href="https://www.planetary.org/articles/nasas-planetary-defense-budget-growth">0.7%</a> of NASA’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/fy2022_budget_summary.pdf">total budget</a> and 0.02% of the roughly <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/FY2021-Defense-Budget/">$700 billion U.S. defense budget</a>.</p>
<p>Is this the right amount to invest in monitoring the skies, given the fact that some <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">60% of all potentially dangerous asteroids remain undetected</a>? This is an important question to ask when one considers the potential consequences.</p>
<p>Investing in planetary defense is akin to buying homeowners insurance. The likelihood of experiencing an event that destroys your house is small, yet people buy insurance nonetheless.</p>
<p>If even a single object larger than 460 feet (140 meters) hits the planet, the devastation and loss of life would be extreme. A bigger impact could quite literally wipe out most species on Earth. Even if no such body is expected to hit Earth in the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-very-real-effort-to-track-killer-asteroids-and-comets-180979206/">next 100 years</a>, the chance is not zero. In this low-likelihood-versus-high-consequences scenario, investing in protecting the planet from dangerous cosmic objects may give humanity some peace of mind and could prevent a catastrophe.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-asteroid-impact-could-wipe-out-an-entire-city-a-space-security-expert-explains-nasas-plans-to-prevent-a-potential-catastrophe-177023">story</a> originally published on March 1, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190888/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Defense, or of any organization the author is affiliated with, including the Air University, Air War College, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Space Force.</span></em></p>Crashing the 1,340-pound DART probe into the small moonlet orbiting the asteroid Didymos should redirect its trajectory – and could be a model for how to save Earth in the future.Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1877542022-07-26T21:25:08Z2022-07-26T21:25:08ZRussia’s withdrawal from the International Space Station could mean the early demise of the orbital lab – and sever another Russian link with the West<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476148/original/file-20220726-31544-rh7onh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C63%2C2613%2C1713&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russia controls six modules aboard the International Space Station.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mpancha/2313255888/in/photolist-4wq3od-2heowP4-yZai28-No1b1u-9dhUXT-RDUpCe-8dquHT-2k7WkqK-qidpLg-2mX3oLj-aiC5e9-2gMR9DP-amD2x7-2hiaRL4-xBup8b-262DKJQ-eQSRqB-ziYYxJ-2m9JpNP-2hicya6-2juYpEE-2jjYUbn-2eJ6PzR-evAsDN-2k7YSTf-6QrytD-2jZaQ9i-TqKGfS-pmhY5p-2ne4gx6-ePndu4-bmiANe-7VJGfF-2iYUmVy-2j5uUX8-6W9vnt-oqVWyd-2mHJWc9-2keVJfy-aoBZjL-2hyV6eZ-pRnkN2-eFxVqy-rYeiG7-eR8QeS-Huf5j8-9YZKbM-czvDGG-2n3Mixa-2kniv3u">STS-122 Shuttle Crew, NASA via flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editors note: On July 26, 2022, Russia announced its plan to withdraw from the International Space Station “after 2024.” This article was published on that same day based on the statement from the head of Russia’s space agency. But since then, Russia <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/07/russia-were-not-leaving-the-space-station-until-our-own-is-ready/">appears to have changed its stance</a>. A video posted by the Russian space agency and statements from a NASA official both indicated that Russia intends to continue operating the ISS with current partners until its own space station is complete. That station is scheduled to be operational sometime in 2028.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/science/russia-space-station.html">Russia intends to withdraw</a> from the International Space Station after 2024, according to an <a href="http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69062">announcement from Yuri Borisov</a>, the new head of the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, in a meeting with Vladimir Putin on July 26, 2022. Borisov also said future efforts will focus on a new a Russian space station. </p>
<p>Current agreements on the ISS have it operating through 2024, and the station needs Russian modules to stay in orbit. The U.S. and its partners have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-extends-us-support-international-space-station-through-2030-2021-12-31/">seeking to extend</a> the station’s life to 2030. Russia’s announcement, while not a breach of any agreement or an immediate threat to the station’s daily operation, does mark the culmination of months of political tensions involving the ISS. </p>
<p>Over its 23-year lifetime, the station has been an important example of how Russia and the U.S. can work together despite being former adversaries. This cooperation has been especially significant as the countries’ relationship has deteriorated in recent years. While it remains unclear whether the Russians will follow through with this announcement, it does add significant stress to the operation of the most successful international cooperation in space ever. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar who studies space policy</a>, I think the question now is whether the political relationship has gotten so bad that working together in space becomes impossible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo of sections of the ISS showing large solar panels sticking out from a central column." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476154/original/file-20220726-37535-r36mpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Zvezda module, at the far bottom left in this photo, is one of six Russian segments of the ISS and houses the engines used to keep the station in orbit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://archive.org/details/STS097-702-061">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What would this withdrawal look like?</h2>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station">Russia operates six</a> of the 17 modules of the ISS – including Zvezda, which houses the main engine system. This engine is vital to the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/international-space-station-frequently-asked-questions">station’s ability to remain in orbit</a> and also to how it <a href="https://www.techspot.com/news/92227-international-space-station-had-make-evasive-maneuver-avoid.html">moves out of the way of dangerous space debris</a>. Under <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-threatens-international-collaboration-in-space-and-shows-how-power-structures-are-changing-podcast-181997">the ISS agreements</a>, Russia retains full control and legal authority over its modules.</p>
<p>It is currently unclear how Russia’s withdrawal will play out. Russia’s announcement speaks only to “after 2024.” Additionally, Russia did not say whether it would allow the ISS partners to take control of the Russian modules and continue to operate the station or whether it would require that the modules be shut down completely.</p>
<p>Given that the Russian modules are necessary to station operations, it’s uncertain <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-run-iss-solo-russia-pull-out-space-station-cosmonauts-1684600">whether the station would be able to operate</a> without them. It’s also unclear whether it would be possible to separate the Russian modules from the rest of the ISS, as the entire station was designed to be interconnected.</p>
<p>Depending on how and when Russia decides to pull out of the station, partner countries will have to make tough choices about whether to deorbit the ISS altogether or find creative solutions to keep it in the sky.</p>
<h2>A continuation of political tensions</h2>
<p>The announcement of the withdrawal is the latest in a series of events concerning the ISS that have occurred since Russia first invaded Ukraine in February. Russia’s decision to leave should not have a significant effect on the daily function of ISS. Like a number of minor incidents that have happened over the previous months, it is more of a political action. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people holding a teal, blue and red flag aboard the ISS." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476155/original/file-20220726-23-utgfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NASA accused Russia of staging an anti-Ukrainian propaganda photo on the ISS after Russia’s space agency posted this photo of three cosmonauts holding a flag of the Luhansk People’s Republic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/5556">Roscosmos via Telegram</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first incident occurred in March, when three Russian cosmonauts <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/science/russian-astronauts-yellow-blue-flight-suits-ukraine.html">emerged from their capsule</a> in yellow and blue flight suits that were similar in color to the Ukrainian flag. Despite the resemblance, Russian officials never spoke about the coincidence. Then, on July 7, 2022, <a href="https://spacenews.com/nasa-criticizes-russia-for-using-space-station-to-promote-invasion-of-ukraine/">NASA publicly criticized Russia</a> for apparently staging a propaganda photo. In the photo, the three Russian cosmonauts pose with flags associated with regions in eastern Ukraine occupied by Russian forces.</p>
<p>There have been no disruptions to the operation of the station itself. Astronauts on the station continue to perform dozens of experiments every day, as well as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/tech/spacewalk-iss-esa-russia-scn/index.html">carrying out joint spacewalks</a>. But one substantial effect of the increasing tensions was the <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/russia-just-axed-joint-experiments-on-the-international-space-station-due-to-sanctions">end of Russian participation in joint experiments</a> with European nations aboard the ISS.</p>
<p>With little information available about how Russia’s withdrawal will affect the use of its modules, in the short term, it seems likely that the largest effects will be on scientific experiments. </p>
<h2>Why now?</h2>
<p>It’s unclear why Russia made this announcement now. </p>
<p>Tensions surrounding the ISS have been high since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. At the time, Dmitry Rogozin, then head of Roscosmos, <a href="https://gizmodo.com/dmitry-rogozin-roscosmos-us-sanctions-iss-crash-into-ea-1848599213">insinuated that Russia’s leaving the ISS might be a possibility</a>. However, Rogozin was recently fired, and NASA and Roscosmos announced a <a href="https://gizmodo.com/nasa-roscosmos-seat-swap-agreement-space-station-1849189842">seat swap for the ISS</a>. Under this deal, an American astronaut would launch to the station on a future Soyuz mission while a cosmonaut would launch on an upcoming SpaceX Dragon launch. The two moves together suggested that the two sides might still be able to find ways to work together in space. But it seems those impressions were misleading.</p>
<p>The announcement also comes as the U.S. is considering the future beyond the ISS. NASA is currently in the first phase of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-selects-companies-to-develop-commercial-destinations-in-space">development of a commercial space station</a> as a replacement for the orbiting lab. While accelerating the development of this new space station would be difficult, it does signal that the ISS is nearing the end of its productive and inspirational life, no matter what Russia does.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components.</span></em></p>The head of the Russian space agency announced that the country will withdraw from the International Space Station after 2024. A space policy expert explains what this means and why it’s happening now.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1866142022-07-08T12:19:01Z2022-07-08T12:19:01ZNASA’s head warned that China may try to claim the Moon – two space scholars explain why that’s unlikely to happen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473092/original/file-20220707-20-99hlqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C177%2C6560%2C3942&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China and the U.S. both have big plans for the Moon, but there are a number of reasons why no country could actually claim ownership of any land there.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/astronauts-set-an-chinese-flag-on-the-moon-royalty-free-image/1060095534?adppopup=true">3dScultor/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>NASA Administrator Bill Nelson recently expressed concerns over China’s aims in space, and in particular, that China would, in some way, claim ownership over the Moon and stop other countries from exploring it. In an <a href="https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/nasa-chef-schlaegt-alarm-chinesen-wollen-den-mond-besetzen-80490242.bild.html">interview with a German newspaper</a>, Nelson cautioned, “We must be very concerned that China is landing on the Moon and saying: ‘It’s ours now and you stay out.‘” China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/china-slams-nasa-administrator-bill-nelson-as-race-to-the-moon-gets-heated">immediately denounced the claims as a “lie”</a>. </p>
<p>This spat between the administrator of NASA and Chinese government officials comes at a time when both nations are <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/china-confirms-its-joining-russia-to-build-a-moon-base-by-2035/ar-AATfsk4">actively working</a> on <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">missions to the Moon</a> – and China has not been shy about its lunar aspirations. </p>
<p>In 2019, China became the first country <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/01/03/china-lands-spacecraft-far-side-moon-historic-first/">to land a spacecraft</a> on the far side of the Moon. That same year, China and Russia announced <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-to-cooperate-on-lunar-orbiter-landing-missions/">joint plans</a> to reach the South Pole of the Moon by 2026. And some Chinese officials and <a href="http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202201/28/content_WS61f35b3dc6d09c94e48a467a.html">government documents</a> have expressed intentions <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-enter-mou-on-international-lunar-research-station/#:%7E:text=China%20and%20Russia%20have%20previously%20signed%20agreements%20for,signed%20an%20MoU%20with%20NASA%20on%20the%20Gateway">to build</a> a permanent, crewed International Lunar Research Station <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3161324/china-speeds-moon-base-plan-space-race-against-us">by 2027</a>.</p>
<p>There is big difference between China – or any state for that matter – setting up a lunar base and actually “taking over” the Moon. As two scholars who study space security and China’s space program, we believe that neither China nor any other nation is likely to take over the Moon in the near future. It is not only illegal, it is also technologically daunting – the costs of such an endeavor would be extremely high, while the potential payoffs would be uncertain. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large room with many seats and a large dais." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473091/original/file-20220707-22-1o5luf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, signed into law by the United Nations, seen here, says that the Moon cannot be claimed by any nation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/19473388@N00/336920038">Patrick Gruban/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>China is limited by international space law</h2>
<p>Legally, China cannot take over the Moon because it is against current international space law. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-law-hasnt-been-changed-since-1967-but-the-un-aims-to-update-laws-and-keep-space-peaceful-171351">Outer Space Treaty</a>, adopted in 1967 and signed by 134 countries, including China, <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/STSPACE11E.pdf">explicitly states</a> that “Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means” (<a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">Article II</a>). Legal scholars have <a href="https://iislweb.space/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/The-NonAppropriation-Principle-A-Roman-Interpretation.pdf">debated the exact meaning of “appropriation”</a>, but under a literal interpretation, the treaty indicates that no country can take possession of the Moon and declare it an extension of its national aspirations and prerogatives. If China tried to do this, it would risk international condemnation and a potential international retaliatory response.</p>
<p>While no country can claim ownership of the Moon, <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">Article I</a> of the Outer Space Treaty allows any state to explore and use outer space and celestial bodies. China will <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-lines-of-power-on-earth-180221">not be the only visitor</a> to the South Pole of the Moon in the near future. The U.S.-led <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Artemis Accords</a> is a group of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/france-signs-artemis-accords-as-french-space-agency-marks-milestone">20 countries</a> that has plans to return humans to the Moon by 2025, which will include the establishment of a research station on the lunar surface and a supporting space station in orbit called the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/gateway/overview">Gateway</a> with a planned launch in <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-northrop-grumman-finalize-moon-outpost-living-quarters-contract">November 2024</a>.</p>
<p>Even if no country can legally claim sovereignty over the Moon, it is possible that China, or any other country, would attempt to gradually establish de facto control over strategically important areas through a strategy known as “<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2014/02/america-has-no-answer-to-chinas-salami-slicing/">salami slicing</a>.” This practice involves taking small, incremental steps to achieve a big change: Individually, those steps do not warrant a strong response, but their cumulative effect adds up to significant developments and increased control. China has recently been using this strategy <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2014/02/america-has-no-answer-to-chinas-salami-slicing/">in the South and East China seas</a>. Still, such a strategy takes time and can be addressed.</p>
<h2>Controlling the Moon is difficult</h2>
<p>With a surface area of nearly 14.6 million square miles (39 million square kilometers) – or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-is-the-moon-let-me-compare-118840">almost five times the area of Australia</a> – any control of the Moon would be temporary and localized. </p>
<p>More plausibly, China could attempt to secure control of specific lunar areas that are strategically valuable, such as lunar craters with higher concentrations of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1802345115">water ice</a>. <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/ice/ice_moon.html">Ice on the Moon</a> is important because it will provide water to humans that wouldn’t need to be shipped from Earth. Ice can also serve as a vital source of oxygen and hydrogen, which could be used as rocket fuel. In short, water ice is essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability and survivability of any mission to the Moon or beyond. </p>
<p>Securing and enforcing control of strategic lunar areas would require substantial financial investments and long-term efforts. And no country could do this without everyone noticing.</p>
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<h2>Does China have the resources and capabilities?</h2>
<p>China is investing heavily in space. In 2021, it led in number of orbital launches with <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/register/the-space-report-2021-quarter-4-pdf-download/">a total of 55</a> compared to the U.S.’s 51. China is also in the <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/register/the-space-report-2021-quarter-4-pdf-download/">top three</a> in spacecraft deployment for 2021. China’s state-owned StarNet space company is planning a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/space/spacex-amazon-oneweb-starlink-collision-chicken-b1850644.html">megaconstellation</a> of <a href="https://www.newspace.im/constellations/gw">12,992 satellites</a>, and the country has nearly <a href="https://www.space.com/china-big-plans-tiangong-space-station">finished building the Tiangong space station</a>. </p>
<p>Going to the Moon is <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasa-artemis-moon-program-biden-budget-2023/">expensive</a>; “taking over” the Moon would be much more so. China’s space budget – an <a href="https://landingpage.spacefoundation.org/the-space-report-q2-se-es">estimated US$13 billion in 2020</a> – is only around half that of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nasa_fy2020_afr_508_compliance_v4.pdf">NASA’s</a>. Both the U.S. and China increased their space budgets in 2020, the U.S. by 5.6% and China by 17.1% compared to the previous year. But even with the increased spending, China does not seem to be investing the money needed to carry out the expensive, daring and uncertain mission of “taking over” the Moon. </p>
<p>If China assumes control over some part of the moon, it would be a risky, expensive and extremely provocative action. China would risk further tarnishing its international image by breaking international law, and it may invite retaliation. All this for uncertain payoffs that remain to be determined.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Defense, or of any organization the authors are affiliated with, including the Air University, Air War College, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Space Force. </span></em></p>A comment by Bill Nelson, the NASA administrator, sparked a strong public response from the Chinese government. But due to legal and practical reasons, no country could take over the Moon anytime soon.Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Air UniversityR. Lincoln Hines, Assistant Professor, West Space Seminar, Air University, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822482022-04-29T11:39:55Z2022-04-29T11:39:55ZIs current space law equipped to handle a new era of shifting power structures in space? The Conversation Weekly podcast transcript<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460527/original/file-20220429-26-9ouui9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C58%2C2974%2C1931&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ukraine invasion has increased tensions surrounding the International Space Station. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/international-space-station-astronaut-outer-over-410458099">Andrey Armyagov via Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is a transcript of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast episode: <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-threatens-international-collaboration-in-space-and-shows-how-power-structures-are-changing-podcast-181997">Ukraine invasion threatens international collaboration in space – is current space law equipped to handle a new era of shifting power structures?</a>, published on April 27, 2022.</em></p>
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<p><em>NOTE: Transcripts may contain errors. Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.</em></p>
<p>Gemma Ware: Hello, and welcome to The Conversation Weekly.</p>
<p>Dan Merino: This week, we’re diving into space politics and space law. To start, how the Russian invasion of Ukraine is affecting international collaboration in space.</p>
<p>David Kuan-Wei Chen: Nobody wants to see Russia, which has been such an instrumental partner in the ISS withdrawal</p>
<p>Gemma: We talk to two space experts to understand how space is entering a new era of international competition – and whether existing space law is ready for what comes next.</p>
<p>Svetla Ben-Itzak: We are actually at the very beginning of how power relations in space are being formed and developed.</p>
<p>Dan: I’m Dan Merino in San Francisco.</p>
<p>Gemma: And I’m Gemma Ware in London. You’re listening to The Conversation Weekly, the world explained by experts.</p>
<p>Gemma: So Dan, the war in Ukraine has been a massive political and economic story for the whole world. But how is it touching science?</p>
<p>Dan: It’s touching science in a bunch of ways. There’s a huge technology angle, a big environmental angle — but as someone who covers space a lot, there’s also a pretty interesting space angle to this whole thing.</p>
<p>Gemma: In what way?</p>
<p>Dan: Well, for the most part, space has traditionally been a place of collaboration in science, and this insulation from tensions and conflict on the ground <a href="https://www.space.com/news/live/russia-ukraine-invasion-space-impacts-updates">is under threat right now.</a></p>
<p>Gemma: What do you mean?</p>
<p>Dan: Well, the first thing that happened is that <a href="https://www.space.com/22724-roscosmos.html">Russia cancelled its Soyuz rocket </a>launches from a European spaceport in French Guiana and this meant a lot of missions needed to figure out how to get their stuff up into orbit.</p>
<p>Newsclip: The Russians also cut off sales and support for Russian rocket engines used in US spacecraft.</p>
<p>Dan: Following that, the European space agency suspended its work with Russia on the ExoMars project to get a new rover on mars.</p>
<p>Newsclip: In a statement the European space agency has said and I quote “while recognising the impact of scientific exploration of space, the ESA – that is the European Space Agency – is fully aligned with the sanctions that have been imposed in Russia by its member states.”</p>
<p>Dan: Europe cancelled cooperation with Russia on a bunch of moon missions and of course there was all this hullabaloo about the International space station.</p>
<p>News clip: This morning the international space station in political cross-hairs as Russia retaliates against American sanctions.</p>
<p>Gemma: I heard about this – I saw a <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/off-duty/military-culture/2022/03/16/russia-says-video-of-us-astronaut-abandoned-in-space-is-just-a-joke/">spoof video</a> that the Russian Space Agency put together reporting to show what would happen if the Russians detached their module from the international space station.</p>
<p>Dan: Yes, there were videos, there were tweets from the head of Roscosmos – this guy Dmitry Rogozin. He’s a bit of a Twitter hot head but he <a href="https://www.space.com/russia-threatens-leave-international-space-station-program-rogozin">threatened to let the ISS crash down to earth</a>. That threat is a bit empty and NASA kinda confirmed that really quickly but Russia did threaten to pull out of the ISS completely and said that the restoration of normal relations is possible only with the complete unconditional lifting of illegal sanctions. So that’s kind of a big shot across the bow of international collaboration in space.</p>
<p>Gemma: So, what would happen if Russia did actually pull out of the international space station?</p>
<p>Dan: Well, it’s pretty complicated and it definitely wouldn’t happen overnight. And to understand it, you really need to understand both the technical operations of the ISS and also the legal framework.</p>
<p>David: My name is David Kuan-Wei Chen</p>
<p>Dan: David is the executive director of the McGill Center for Research in Air and Space Law in Canada and he’s really an expert in all things space law. I asked him to explain how the ISS really operates on a day-to-day basis.</p>
<p>David: Construction started in 1998 when the Russians sent the first elements up into space and then from there on, different states added their own elements. Right? So, this is part of the reason behind the controversy if Russia were to pull out completely from the space station, because the Russian element is quite essential to what they call station keeping. Right? So the Russian element has the propulsion system that maintains the space station so that it doesn’t come crashing down to earth, because you know, the earth’s gravity would naturally just pull every single object down towards earth. </p>
<p>And it’s also Russia, which is obligated to provide a permanent escape capsule which is docked to the ISS in case, whatever emergency that the astronauts on board need to escape and evacuate. And there are other elements that are contributed by the other partners, such as the Europeans have a science module. The Japanese also have a science and research module. Canada contributed the Canada arm, which is very instrumental in the construction and the maintenance of the space station itself.</p>
<p>Dan: So what laws actually govern the International Space Station in all these different modules from different countries?</p>
<p>David: There’s one overarching agreement between the governments of the US, Russia, Canada, Japan and 11 of the participant states of the European space agency. So this intergovernmental agreement, or the IGA, is a legally binding international treaty which lays down the basic rules on the joint development and use of the ISS. The agreement also lays down that, each module, each element of the partner, what they would contribute to the collaborative project.</p>
<p>Dan: You mentioned there’s a Russian module, there’s the Canada Arm, there’s the Japanese science branch. Is this like a little piece of sovereign soil up in space or what’s the actual rules here? Are we talking flags and border checkpoints or anything like that?</p>
<p>David: Yeah so in a sense, yes. So, according to basic space law and this is reflected in the intergovernmental agreement of the ISS, every module belongs to and is operated by that state, right? So the US module obviously is operated and maintained by the US, through its space agency, NASA, and ditto with the Russian module operated and maintained through its space agency, Roscosmos. And the law is, for instance, if there were an invention created aboard the US module, then intellectual property law of the US would apply to that creation and then there are also laws dealing with customs and immigration and so on and so on.</p>
<p>Dan: Oh, interesting. So like there is in fact some “customs”, on the space station. Like you don’t have to check in or anything but like if something passes through one branch to the other technically there’s the shift in laws.</p>
<p>David: Technically, there is a shift in law and the interesting fact is, because of the unique nature of the space station, the IGA actually has a provision dealing with criminal jurisdiction, right? If say, a crime were committed on board, what kind of laws would govern? What is unique to the ISS is that, the states have agreed they would have criminal jurisdiction over their own nationals. So, for example, if a US national were to commit a crime on board the space station then US law would apply to this US national.</p>
<p>Gemma: Dan, has this ever actually happened, has there ever been a crime on board the space station?</p>
<p>Dan: Well, somebody was accused of a crime.</p>
<p>Newsclip: NASA’s reportedly investigating what may be the first crime committed in space.</p>
<p>Dan: A couple years ago, a US astronaut, Anne McLain, was accused of using a NASA computer to access the bank account of her wife who she was divorcing at the time.</p>
<p>News clip: McLain’s wife reportedly filed a complaint accusing her of identity theft.</p>
<p>Gemma: So was it the first space crime?</p>
<p>Dan: Well, some people investigated and the case was actually later dropped and McLain was cleared of any wrongdoing. In a funny twist, it’s now actually McLain’s former wife who’s facing trial this year and is accused of <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdtx/pr/woman-charged-falsely-claiming-officer-accessed-her-bank-account-international-space">lying to federal authorities.</a></p>
<p>Gemma: OK, so it sounds complicated! But we’ve digressed a little bit here… so back to the International Space Station. We’ve had these threats from the head of the Russian Space station, Roscosmos to withdraw from the ISS, but what has actually happened? Like, how is everything going for the astronauts up there orbiting earth.</p>
<p>Dan: Things seem to be going alright up in space. Russian cosmonauts just the other day did a space walk and connected a control panel to a European owned robotic arm. End of March, a NASA astronaut named Mark Vande Hei returned to earth on a Russian Soyuz space capsule with his Russian colleagues.</p>
<p>News clip: Touchdown! Mark Vande Hei and Pyotr Dubrov back home one year after leaving the planet.</p>
<p>Dan: Rogozin had actually said his return could be under threat, but you know the guy’s kinda full of hot air.</p>
<p>News clip: Even as tensions rise here between America and Russia, over the war in Ukraine, the crew shared a hug.</p>
<p>David: It just shows despite these tensions on earth, cooperation continues and the heads of NASA and the Canadian space agency have all written to their Russian counterpart to say, you know, cooperation in the ISS is independent of any geopolitical issue, and the US government and Canadian government continue to support the ISS and to ensure its success. And I think astronaut Vande Hei said it best when you said “I’ve heard about these tweets and threats, I kinda laughed it off and I moved on.”</p>
<p>Dan: Yeah, yeah, yeah.</p>
<p>David: And you know, these threats have been made before these sanctions. Actually, the Roscosmos chief Rogozin – they were actually in place at the time, the 2014 invasion of Crimea – when he was the deputy prime minister, there were sanctions imposed on him personally. And at the time, also we saw these threats that were being issued to cease the co-operation on the ISS but NASA came out and assured the world that cooperation would continue as usual and nothing has changed. And hopefully this is going to be the same as well.</p>
<p>Dan: So, you talked about the intergovernmental agreement that kind of governs the laws regarding ISS, from Crimea, from the invasion of Ukraine, do you feel like the laws in place are doing their job aboard the ISS? Are they strong? Are they robust? Are they involved in keeping the stability?</p>
<p>David: Yeah, I think so, I think so. I mean nobody wants to see Russia, which has been such an instrumental partner in the ISS, withdraw from the ISS, right? And you know, the IGA, like with any agreement, it’s not as easy as you think they “Oh, We’re gonna stop cooperation, we’re gonna withdraw from this”, because there is actually built in provision, which says, if you do want to withdraw, there is a one year period. And I think they negotiated it into this because they wanted to make sure that it’s not just a sudden withdrawal, whereby all the other partners are left in the lurch. </p>
<p>So, this one year withdrawal period allows them to kind of negotiate, discuss what would happen, you know, who will take over and so on and so on. And there are also provisions in the IGA, which deals with what happens when there’s this dispute. So clearly, right now, there is a dispute, and there are mechanisms in place to initiate consultation and negotiation to hopefully resolve any issues. </p>
<p>Like all international agreements, these provisions are in place to prevent the unnecessary escalation of political disputes or tensions which threaten to completely derail 20-30 years of unprecedented cooperation in space, right? This again, despite these tensions, the ISS has continued to operate and space has really has always been an arena that’s kind of, isolated from tensions on earth and we hope this continues to be the case with the ISS.</p>
<p>Gemma: You know, David mentioned there was this long history of scientific collaboration in space … but that wasn’t always the case, right? I mean, I, in my head, I think of the space race between the US and the Soviets during the cold war and lots of competition – it was a tense period.</p>
<p>Dan: Yes, it certainly was a time of tension. There was a lot of competition to become the space dominant player but there was a surprising amount of collaboration too. Notably, there was the 1975 Apollo-Soyuz test, where an American Apollo spacecraft, carrying three US astronauts, docked with a Russian Soyuz spacecraft carrying a couple Russian cosmonauts. They not only docked in orbit – first time that ever happened – but they shook hands.</p>
<p>Gemma: Friendly!</p>
<p>Dan: Friendly… during the middle of the cold war when the United States and Russia all thought they were gonna nuke each other. There’s also been a bunch of kinda more international efforts. There was the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, the 1979 Moon Agreement and we’re gonna hear a lot more about those later.</p>
<p>Gemma: So this was a moment of real tension on earth and yet in space things were you know not so hostile?</p>
<p>Dan: It wasn’t and it was actually really both in the US and the Soviet Union’s strategic interests to restrain themselves in space in a sense. Space is such a global good, and at that time there was so much room for technological growth and advancement. It was more of a rising tide lifts all boats and not so much a zero sum game. At least back then.</p>
<p>Gemma: So the US and the Soviets started collaborating in space – what happened from there?</p>
<p>Dan: Well, slowly as other countries gained their own space abilities they got in the game too. France became the third country to put a satellite in space in 1965. In the 70s, a group of European nations formed the European Space Agency. This is the ESA. And now they’ve got 22 member states. But the European Space Agency was the first side of things to come. As more and more nations gained access to space and especially in the last couple decades alliances, treaties, collaboration, have gotten a lot more complicated. And to understand what’s been happening to get us where we are today and what might happen next – I called up someone who studies power itself and how it’s divided in space.</p>
<p>Svetla: My name is Svetla Ben-Itzak.</p>
<p>Dan: Svetla is an assistant professor of space and international relations at Air University in the US, where she works with and trains senior members of the US space force.</p>
<p>Svetla: And I teach courses on space security, international security, and the like. However, I would like to say that the views that I express here are my own.</p>
<p>Dan: Today, more than 70 countries have an official space agency of some sort. An additional roughly 26 or so have at least one satellite in orbit. But as Svetla explained, some countries are still clear leaders.</p>
<p>Svetla: We can say the top five leading space faring countries are the US, China, Russia, Japan, and India. And of course the European Space Agency is up there among the top six.</p>
<p>Dan: So with all these newcomers entering the space game, how has the nature of international collaboration changed?</p>
<p>Svetla: So, in the past, we had individual countries leading in space, however, nowadays, more often than not, in space, they’re not acting alone. So the trend has been that countries that partner on the ground also come together in space to accomplish specific missions in space. <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-lines-of-power-on-earth-180221">So I call such formation space blocs.</a> So it makes sense for countries to come together to pool their resources, manpower, expertise, and know-how, to accomplish more. Right. So those space blocs have most of them formed over the last five to 10 years, right?</p>
<p>Dan: So, this is super recent?</p>
<p>Svetla: Very recent. Especially the ones that actually have specific missions to accomplish in space.</p>
<p>Dan: Who are these space blocs? What are the kinds of big players and who’s in them?</p>
<p>Svetla: We have the <a href="http://www.apsco.int/">Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization</a> also known as APSCO. This one was formed back in 2005. We have the <a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/en/articulos/signing-of-the-convention-establishing-alce-the-latin-american-and-caribbean-space-agency-283235?idiom=en">Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency</a> kind of bloc. That was from just last year in 2021 and currently has seven countries led by Argentina. We have the <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-launches-arab-space-collaboration-group">Arab Space Coordination Group</a>, formed in 2019 by the United Arab Emirates. Currently it has about ten Arab countries. And of course you have the <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/statute-african-space-agency">African Space Agency</a>.</p>
<p>Dan: The race to the moon and in particular a moon base, this is a pretty good example where these blocs are kind of in play. So can you describe what’s going on there?</p>
<p>Svetla: Yes. On one hand we have the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Artemis Accords</a>, an international agreement signed in October 2020, initiated and led by the United States.</p>
<p>News clip: We’re going to the moon sustainably – in other words this time when we go to the Moon we’re gonna stay at the Moon for long periods of time.</p>
<p>Svetla: The main objective is to put a man and a woman back on the Moon by 2025 with the ultimate goal of expanding space exploration to Mars and beyond, right. We have 18 countries signatories to the accords. The last two to join were Bahrain and Singapore and also the Isle of Man, actually.</p>
<p>News clip: Ushering in a new era of space cooperation between Russia and China – the two countries have signed a memorandum that sets in motion plans to join the space station, either on the Moon’s surface or in its orbit.</p>
<p>Svetla: On the other hand, we have another space bloc formed by an agreement between Russia and China, that dates back to 2019 when both countries actually affirmed their intent to work together and established an international lunar space station by 2026, again, on the south pole of the Moon.</p>
<p>Dan: Why aren’t they working together? Right. Like what’s going on here?</p>
<p>Svetla: Well, my argument is that this separation reflects actually strategic interests and uncertainties about the security intentions on the ground that have been kind of transposed to space and one supporting evidence to that is that although the Artemis Accords, are open to any nation to join in – anybody can join in – Russia and China have been reluctant, they have not become signatories. And some argue not only Russia and China, but also some scholars argue that those accords are an effort to expand US-centered and US-defined order to outer space. Right? </p>
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<p>So through space blocs actually countries consolidate their sphere of influence. Not only on the ground, but also in space. Right, so on our side, we’re also are not running into kind of joining the Sino-Russian space bloc. I mean, I argue that, for example, the Asia Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, the APSCO led by China that was established back in 2005 and currently has eight members namely Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mongolia, Peru, Thailand and Turkey. So China is using this bloc to expand its influence in the area via its space, satellite services that it provides to the members. </p>
<p>So my argument here is that countries actually use those space blocs to consolidate and expand their sphere of influence both on the ground and in space. The question is how many such space blocs will develop? Whether there will be some connection between the blocs based on scientific interests? And whether those blocs will actually consolidate even further and exclude anybody who would be interested in joining? So we are actually are at the very beginning of how power relations in space are being formed and developed.</p>
<p>Dan: And that certainly makes things interesting. So, how do the commercial actors play into this whole world?</p>
<p>Svetla: So let me just kind of like set the stage a little bit because over the last 15 years, thanks to federal deregulation specifically in the United States, commercial activity in space, more than tripled. In 2020, commercial activity accounted for about 80% of the total global space economy. And some scholars see that this is the future of international cooperation in space, through commercial entities and shared commercial interests, right? Because commercial companies will actually decrease this inherent uncertainty as to what we think the others will do. Right? I argue personally that although important, I think commercial entities will remain subject to state actors, because states dictate what goes in space.</p>
<p>They dictate the rules in space. And one example for that is the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which provides the basic legal framework of international space law. So the Outer Space Treaty gives states full responsibility, liability and ownership of any commercial entity that operates in space.</p>
<p>Dan: Can you explain what you mean by that? As in, SpaceX launches a rocket – it’s technically the US launching a rocket, right?</p>
<p>Svetla: Yes, absolutely. Actually, nothing flies into outer space without registering with a state first and being allowed by the state to fly. And of course, to return, because states are responsible and liable for any object or person that happens in space. And they also own it, in terms of the rules of states that apply on that specific spacecraft as well as people, right.</p>
<p>Dan: I want to move on to the invasion of Ukraine and would you say that this recent event is kind of that first test of the new kind of order of space, the first big shock to the system, if you will? And if so, how’s it playing out?</p>
<p>Svetla: It is not the first and it won’t be the last. It happened many times in the past. The war in Crimea was very similar to what’s happening right now. But what is happening now really evidences what I’ve been arguing, namely the primacy of states over commercial actors in space affairs. Right? </p>
<p>So for example, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, western countries imposed a number of sanctions against Russia. And as a result of those sanctions, many commercial companies actually stopped collaborating with Russia’s space agency Roscosmos. So, the British satellite company, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60602512">OneWeb, suspended all launches from Russia’s Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan</a>. Scientific collaboration with Russia in space also ceased. For example, Germany discontinued their scientific collaboration with Russia on the International Space Station.</p>
<p>Dan: Do you think the invasion of Ukraine and all these actions that are being imposed sanctions, lack of scientific collaboration. Is this further ossifying space blocs or what is it kind of doing to the trend line?</p>
<p>Svetla: The unfortunate effect in this particular case is that tensions on the ground for now seem to have kind of rigidified the system even further in space, right? Have had negative consequences on scientific collaboration in space and commercial collaboration. Now in the past, what happened in space actually weathered storms on the ground, and collaborations survived, and even thrived despite tensions on the ground. So we’ll just have to wait and see if those will have some long-term effects on the pace blocs in general or on specific scientific missions.</p>
<p>Dan: Are there risks to this? Are there any parallels you can draw to some historical places on land, perhaps?</p>
<p>Svetla: Yes, absolutely. So, if history is to serve us as any kind of warning precedent or lesson? I would say we should be reminded of what happened just before world war one. The lesson there that the more rigid alliances become, an inflexible alliances become, such as the growing rigidity of the two alliances, the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of 20th century. The growing rigidity of the two alliances is often cited as a triggering cause of world war one at the systemic level, right? And also cited as the war was inevitable, right? So I think we can draw a lesson that as long as existing space blocs remain flexible, open to all, willing to accommodate very often diverging interests – cooperation will continue and, we may avoid an open conflict in space.</p>
<p>Dan: So, given all of these trends, Svetla, are you optimistic about the future of space or are these space blocs that are emerging potentially a bad thing?</p>
<p>Svetla: I want to be optimistic about the future, but I also can see that things may develop into a different kind of, not so optimistic pathway. So, if we manage to keep the uncertainty about the intentions of others at bay and focus on the scientific missions at hand – actually pooling our resources together in those space blocs will help us accomplish this faster and will help us go further for the benefit of all. The bad news here is that, if security interests that are usually based on the fact that we are uncertain as to what the other side is trying to accomplish, override current space mission objectives – this may lead to further rigidity of the existing space blocs, which will limit our options and it will spiral us down into an undesired path of confrontation and conflict.</p>
<p>Gemma: So, Dan, a space war sounds like science fiction but also very scary … how did you leave your conversation with Svetla? Did you feel like it was going to happen any time soon?</p>
<p>Dan: Gosh, I certainly hope not. But it’s hard to predict. So I’m not going to go on the record books here. But I do think it’s very interesting how the structures of power and the structures of relations in space are shifting towards a place that might in fact be more conducive to conflict and that’s scary.</p>
<p>Gemma: And is there anything preventing us from having a war in space?</p>
<p>Dan: I guess the one thing kind of preventing it is sort of space law but that’s a really big grey area.</p>
<p>Gemma: We heard a little bit about the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. Is that not going to help?</p>
<p>Dan: Well it might and David Kuan-Wei Chen actually talked about this a little bit.</p>
<p>David: That treaty together with a series of other UN treaties were adopted in the 1960s and 70s, at the height of the cold war and it’s quite miraculous that the Soviet Union and United States came together at the UN to lay down the basic principles, what you can and cannot do. They agreed that you cannot own space or own celestial bodies such as the moon or asteroids and so on and so on. Even then they agreed on the fundamental principle that you cannot use nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction in space. And there’s also, a very general consensus on the fact that the exploration and use of outer space should be for so-called peaceful purposes. So, even at the time they recognised that outer space is not a lawless, wild west domain, where anyone can do anything.</p>
<p>Dan: Things have changed a lot. Do you think that space law is well-equipped to deal with today’s problems? Especially with all the ways different countries and companies are aligning themselves and using space?</p>
<p>David: Yeah, so I think one major problem is the possibility and the fear of an extension of conflict into outer space. So yes, when they were drafting the space law treaties at the UN, they made sure that there’ll be no military manoeuvres, no testing of any kind of weapons on the Moon. But then there’s a legal vacuum because that doesn’t address the testing of weapons in outer space. And so we saw unfortunately it was Russia that tested a weapon in November 2021.</p>
<p>News clip: The US has condemned Russia for conducting a dangerous and irresponsible missile test that it says endangered the crew aboard the International Space Station.</p>
<p>David: So they <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59299101">tested what they call an anti-satellite weapon</a>, basically using a missile to destroy its own satellite. And that created a whole bunch of debris that really threatened, potentially, the space objects of other states.</p>
<p>News clip: Station Houston on space to ground two, for an early wake up. Astronauts aboard the international space station were awakened overnight by NASA flight controllers in Houston.</p>
<p>David: Astronauts on board the International Space Station had to temporarily evacuate into the capsule, you know, in case they had to flee oncoming space debris.</p>
<p>Dan: When there’s clear laws in place if an actor does something that breaks international law or violates something, response is justified, right? My worry is that without clear guidance, there’s a little more leeway, right? Like Russia can rattle, a sabre in space, and what is the response? Because it isn’t breaking any laws. So is this kind of like grey area a problem that people are thinking about?</p>
<p>David: Yeah. it is. And so my background is in law. So, you know, I see the world in terms of law of rights and obligations and, what, what we’re seeing right now is increasing recognition of threats to space activities and space objects. Which is a great thing, but there’s also a shift from how to address these threats, right? </p>
<p>So in the 60s and 70s, we adopted a series of UN space law treaties, which are legally binding. And there are consequences if you were to violate such legal principles and norms, then now the dialogue is increasingly moving towards the adoption of so-called guidelines for the long-term sustainable use of outer space and more recently, states are discussing about norms and rules and principles of responsible behaviour, which are based on, you know, shared values and expectations of what is appropriate behaviour. But what happens when someone breaks a norm or does not behave responsibly?</p>
<p>Dan: Sure, sure, Sure.</p>
<p>David: I mentioned earlier the Russian ASAT test in November. Many states came out and condemned the action as irresponsible behaviour. That’s it.</p>
<p>Dan: But then what? You can’t do anything else, right? Yeah.</p>
<p>David: Exactly! I’m not singling out Russia.</p>
<p>Dan: Sure, sure, sure.</p>
<p>David: You know, the United States, China, India they have all conducted ASAT tests in space. But there’s a big difference between calling someone an irresponsible actor and calling someone a law breaker. Because when someone is a law breaker, there are potential obligations, potentially – if you were to cause damage, then you may have to compensate. And there are legal consequences. There are also potential political fallout of being cast as an outlaw. And so, this is something that we are quite concerned with.</p>
<p>Dan: Do you think that law can play a role in maintaining cooperation and flexibility as space changes and as technologies improve?</p>
<p>David: Yeah, I think so. I mean, again, you know, really the testament and the legacy of the Outer Space Treaty and the series of UN space law treaties is that they remain relevant til this day.</p>
<p>Dan: And you do think that? Like I like cause that that’s there so old what it’s crazy that we are actually still relevant.</p>
<p>David: Yeah, but you know, you can say the same about the laws of war, right? The laws of war were developed on Earth, originally in the 1800s, ironically in the Crimea, because the founder of the International Committee of the Red Cross saw such devastation and tragedy happening to the civilian population that, you know, you said there must be basic principles of what we cannot do in an armed conflict situation. That’s over a hundred years ago, but those still remain relevant to this day; remain relevant to the conflict situation in Ukraine, in Afghanistan, in Yemen and so on. </p>
<p>So, even though laws may be old, that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily outdated. And I think the strength of the space law treaties is that perhaps with foresight, they were drafted in such a way that you can interpret them and apply them to new contexts and new situations.</p>
<p>Dan: David and his colleagues at <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/milamos/">McGill are currently putting together a new manual</a> – the goal to actually clarify a lot of the grey areas in space law and turn some of the unwritten rules of space into actual written rules.</p>
<p>Gemma: And is some of this about who owns space as well? Because Svetla talked about these two kinds of slightly competing missions going to the south pole of the Moon – what if they find water there, or minerals or something they want to exploit?</p>
<p>Dan: It’s less a question of if they will find it because we know it’s there. It’s more of a question who’s got the rights to do what with it? And that’s exactly why these two missions are going there – to see what they can do to exploit these resources and David actually talked about this a lot too.</p>
<p>David: I think what would be very interesting to see, especially as countries return to the Moon, is how they interpret international law. So we have the United States, especially, rallying countries around the world to sign up to the Artemis Accords, which, which lays down the basic, political commitments. They’re not actually legal obligations, they’re political commitments of what they’re going to do on the Moon. Which includes the exploration and exploitation of space resources. Now, how does, for example, going to the Moon and extracting resources square with that international legal obligation established very clearly in 1967? And there are a number of countries, Japan being the latest one, in addition to Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates and the United States, which have passed national legislation saying, we recognise that private actors can go and exploit space resources, and have rights over such space resources.</p>
<p>Dan: Oh, so the rights is the important part there, right?</p>
<p>David: Right! Yeah. So, how does that square with the overarching concept of non-appropriation under international space law? One of the UN space law treaties is called the Moon Agreement, which was adopted in 1979, which envisions the establishment of an international regulatory body to deal with the extraction and the sharing of lunar resources. To date, there are only 18 states that are parties to the Moon Agreement – none of which are major space-faring countries.</p>
<p>Dan: So we’ve talked about the Moon and missions to establish bases there, but what about further out into space, like Mars for example or maybe moons of Saturn, eventually?</p>
<p>David: Yeah. So, the Moon Agreement, even though the name is Moon Agreement, it actually applies to celestial bodies in the solar system. Technically the Moon Agreement would apply to activities in the exploration and use of resources on Mars. And that’s, that’s something that I think, you know, Elon Musk has been saying, you know, it may happen in the 2030s and so on. Again, not many countries have signed up to the Moon Agreement so therefore those obligations under Moon Agreement do not apply to them. And so I think the big question with the next steps of space exploration and habitation is how do you make sure that these laws that were drafted on Earth apply and are enforceable in extra terrestrial contexts?</p>
<p>Dan: So not only do we have the grey area kind of hole, we’ve got the enforcement hole, which certainly, you know, a law doesn’t matter if it’s not enforced.</p>
<p>David: Yeah. And, you know, there was, again, I’m not trying to single out, Elon Musk, but <a href="https://www.iflscience.com/space/people-are-not-keen-on-elon-musks-plan-for-workers-on-mars/%20https://twitter.com/vfx_starship/status/1217991463503446016">he floated this idea</a>, people can sign up for missions to Mars and basically work to pay back there…</p>
<p>Dan: Oh gosh.</p>
<p>David: And that sounds like something, unfortunately sounds like indentured servitude.</p>
<p>Dan: Yeah, we’ve got plenty of history and plenty of sci-fi shows to warn us against this.</p>
<p>David: That’s right. So, I think, it’s great that we are seeing more private and commercial investment in space which means, you know, governments do not have to dedicate so much of their financial resources to space exploration because you know, these billionaires are willing to spend their money and fortunes, hopefully for the benefit of humankind. But you know, it may also then raise the concerns of whether again, looking back at history, we’ve seen the history of privateers; people going to new territories and new worlds and saying, well, we’re going to exploit. We’re going to colonise. What does that mean? Again, it comes down to what impact will that have on the international binding laws that the states have agreed on for so many decades.</p>
<p>Gemma: When you think about it, it’s actually the richest countries in the world who have the resources to go to space. So it’s the richest countries that are gonna benefit from it. So really finding a way to make sure those laws are enforced is incredibly important to equity to space resources in the future.</p>
<p>Dan: Absolutely and again it’s all about resources. To kinda close the loop on this episode. I really was shocked when all this stuff started bubbling up about tensions between Russia and the United States in space. I had this kind of naive bubble that space was some happy-go-lucky place of collaboration and science and that it was in some way insulated from the realpolitik of earthly tensions. the invasion of Ukraine and all the fallout from that has really kind of shattered that bubble for me and as Svetla explained this has not been a surprise for those who have been paying attention for it and that’s because of the technology changes and because there so many people going into space, and because there’s this competition and so, space needs laws.</p>
<p>Gemma: It definitely does.</p>
<p>Gemma: If you want to learn more about how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected scientific collaboration, including in space, we’ve been publishing a few articles about that on The Conversation including from Svetla and David.</p>
<p>Dan: We’ll put some links to their stories in the show notes as well as a few others.</p>
<p>Gemma: Before we go, Australians are going to the polls on the 21 May in a federal election. And a new podcast from The Conversation is digging into some of the political issues ahead of the vote.</p>
<p>Jon Faine: Hello I’m Jon Faine, former ABC Melbourne presenter and now a vice chancellor’s fellow at the University of Melbourne. If you’ve been enjoying The Conversation Weekly I hope you’ll love our new podcast <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/podcasts/below-the-line">Below the Line</a> from The Conversation, Australia and La Trobe University covering the Australian federal election campaign 2022. </p>
<p>Amid the global headwinds of COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and local crisis here, the devastating floods, the government of prime minister Scott Morrison is behind in the polls. Can he turn things around or will the Labor Party take back power in our election in May. I’ll be joined by political scientists Anika Gauja and Simon Jackman from the University of Sydney and La Trobe University’s Andrea Carson. Around twice a week we’ll try to do it to unpack the party lines and policies that matter. To listen and subscribe, search for<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/podcasts/below-the-line"> Below the Line on The Conversation</a> or your favourite podcast app.</p>
<p>Gemma: That’s it for this week. Thanks to all the academics who’ve spoken to us for this episode. And thanks to the conversation’s Nehal el-Hadi and Stephen Khan and to Alice Mason for our social media permission.</p>
<p>Dan: You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. Don’t forget to sign up for our free daily email as well and hey – tell a friend if you liked this episode.</p>
<p>Gemma: The Conversation Weekly is co-produced by Mend Mariwany and me Gemma Ware with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. </p>
<p>Dan: I’m Dan Merino, thank you for listening!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kuan-Wei (David) Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Svetla Ben-Itzhak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This is a transcript of The Conversation Weekly podcast episode published on April 29 2022.Daniel Merino, Assistant Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationGemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1819972022-04-28T10:13:15Z2022-04-28T10:13:15ZUkraine invasion threatens international collaboration in space and shows how power structures are changing – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460247/original/file-20220428-20-b5cnai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=98%2C108%2C6412%2C4307&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russia threatened to withdraw from the International Space Station over sanctions imposed on the country following its invasion of Ukraine. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/international-space-station-spacecraft-background-rising-729066739">3Dsculptor via Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is challenging the structures of international collaboration in space. In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast, we talk to two experts about how space is entering a new era of international competition – and whether the existing laws are ready for what comes next. </p>
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<p>Space has historically been a surprisingly collaborative place. Even during the height of the cold war, the Soviet Union and the US made decisions that were mutually beneficial to both nations. As more nations developed their own space agencies in the last decades of the 20th century, the era of international collaboration in space put forth its crown jewel, the International Space Station (ISS). </p>
<p>A remarkable system of <a href="https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/International_Space_Station/International_Space_Station_legal_framework">agreements and laws</a> allow more than a dozen different countries to run such a complicated feat of science in orbit. But as David Kuan-Wei Chen, the executive director of the Center for Research in Air and Space Law at McGill University in Canada, explains, the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is putting this cooperation to the test, with <a href="https://www.space.com/russia-threatens-leave-international-space-station-program-rogozin">Russia threatening to withdraw</a> from the ISS. “Like all international agreements, these provisions are in place to prevent the unnecessary escalation of political disputes which threaten to completely derail 20 to 30 years of unprecedented cooperation in space,” he says.</p>
<p>The ISS may be the most high-profile recent dispute in space, but in the last decade or two, there’s been a subtle yet important shift in how nations approach missions in space. Svetla Ben-Itzhak is a professor of space and international relations at Air University in the US and has a name for the emerging system. “In the past, we had individual countries leading in space. However, now most countries are not acting alone. The trend has been that countries that partner on the ground also come together to accomplish specific missions in space. I call these formations <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-lines-of-power-on-earth-180221">space blocs</a>,” she says.</p>
<p>Instead of individual countries collaborating on big scientific missions, now groups of allied nations are competing against each other.</p>
<p>In the full episode of the podcast, we talk to Ben-Itzhak about how space blocs emerged, why they are likely to be the main avenue of power in the future and what this means for the prospects of war in space. Then, with Chen we explore whether existing space law is adequate to meet the challenges in space today and how two future missions to the Moon highlight all the gray areas of what is legal and what isn’t once you leave Earth.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-lines-of-power-on-earth-180221">Space Blocs: The future of international cooperation in space is splitting along lines of power on Earth</a>
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<p>This episode of The Conversation Weekly was produced by Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also sign up to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_campaign=PodcastTCWeekly&utm_content=newsletter&utm_source=podcast">free daily email here</a>.</p>
<p>Newsclips in this episode are from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4uJ1cVInJA">WION</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GiTn-5wnCQ">BBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7rbw19a130">CBS</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6JhfOvZg7M">News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aA6VGasjIA">ABC</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eaxfKvPyQA&t=43s">News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZYG4R94zhM">France24 English</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HMC7BsRI1s">CBS Evening News</a> and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tNTgMN4-A0">Associated Press</a>. </p>
<p>You can listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a>, or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kuan-Wei (David) Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Svetla Ben-Itzhak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Listen to two space experts discuss how the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens international collaboration in space on The Conversation Weekly podcast.Daniel Merino, Assistant Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationGemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1814542022-04-26T12:35:06Z2022-04-26T12:35:06ZGoing underground: Ukraine’s subterranean fighters highlight the benefit – and long history – of tunnels in warfare<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459531/original/file-20220425-26-z10wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C51%2C3431%2C2229&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ukrainian fighters entering a tunnel.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ukrainian-soldiers-walk-through-a-tunnel-of-a-trench-on-the-news-photo/1239919477?adppopup=true">Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Faced with the prospect of sending Russian troops into subterranean combat, Vladimir Putin demurred. “There is no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground,” he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-cancels-russian-plans-storm-mariupol-steel-plant-opts-blockade-instead-2022-04-21/">told his defense minister on April 21, 2022</a>, ordering him to cancel a planned storming of a steel plant in the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.</p>
<p>While Putin’s back-up plan – to form a seal around trapped Ukrainian forces and wait it out – is no less brutal and there are reports that Russians <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-presidential-adviser-says-russian-forces-trying-storm-azovstal-plant-2022-04-24/">may still have mounted an offensive on the site</a>, Putin’s hesitancy to send his forces into a sprawling network of tunnels under the complex hints at a truth in warfare: Tunnels can be an effective tool in resisting an oppressor.</p>
<p>Indeed since the war began in February, reports have emerged of Ukrainian defenders <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10714221/Ukrainian-tunnel-fighters-Mariupol-hellish-stand-Stalingrad-esque-steel-plant.html">using underground tunnel networks</a> in efforts to deny Russian invaders control of major cities, as well as <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/preparing-odesas-catacombs-for-a-russian-assault">to provide sanctuary</a> <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-invasion-kyiv-underground-shelter-russia/31721685.html">for civilians</a>.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/ACSC/Display/Article/2480528/department-of-research/">expert in military history and theory</a>, I know there is sound thinking behind <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/190444/springer_-_tunneling_in_warfare.pdf">using tunnels as both a defensive and offensive tactic</a>. Such networks allow small units to move undetected by aerial sensors and emerge in unexpected locations to launch surprise attacks and then essentially disappear. For an invader who does not possess a thorough map of the subterranean passages, this can present a nightmare scenario, leading to massive personnel losses, plummeting morale and an inability to finish the conquest of their urban objective – all factors that may have factored in Putin’s <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mariupol-ukraine-putin-russia-plans-cancel/">decision not to send troops underground</a> in Mariupol.</p>
<h2>A history of military tunneling from ancient roots</h2>
<p>The use of tunnels and underground chambers in times of conflict is nothing new.</p>
<p>The use of tunnels has been a <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2015/04/fighting-under-the-earth-the-history-of-tunneling-in-warfare/">common aspect of warfare for millennia</a>. Ancient besieging forces used tunneling operations as a means to weaken otherwise well-fortified positions. This typically required engineers to construct long passages under walls or other obstacles. Collapsing the tunnel weakened the fortification. If well-timed, an assault conducted in the immediate aftermath of the breach might lead to a successful storming of the defended position. </p>
<p>One of the earliest examples of this technique is <a href="https://blog.britishmuseum.org/introducing-the-assyrians/">depicted on Assyrian carvings</a> that are thousands of years old. While some attackers climb ladders to storm the walls of an Egyptian city, others can be seen digging at the foundations of the walls. </p>
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<img alt="An engraving shoes Assyrian fighters climbing ladders, engaged in combat and digging tunnels under a fortification." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459477/original/file-20220425-12-1manao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459477/original/file-20220425-12-1manao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459477/original/file-20220425-12-1manao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459477/original/file-20220425-12-1manao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459477/original/file-20220425-12-1manao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459477/original/file-20220425-12-1manao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459477/original/file-20220425-12-1manao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Assyrian engraving of the siege of an Egyptian fort.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://blog.britishmuseum.org/introducing-the-assyrians/">The Trustees of the British Museum</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.warhistoryonline.com/ancient-history/roman-sieges-used-mining-operations.html">Roman armies</a> relied heavily upon sophisticated engineering techniques such as putting arches into the tunnels they built during sieges. Roman defenders also perfected the <a href="https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2014/07/21/history-tunnel-warfare">art of digging counter-tunnels</a> to intercept those used by attackers before they presented a threat. Upon penetrating an enemy tunnel, they flooded it with caustic smoke to drive out the enemy or launched a surprise attack upon unsuspecting miners.</p>
<p>The success of tunneling under fortifications led European engineers in the Middle Ages to design ways to thwart the tactic. They built castles on bedrock foundations, making any attempt to dig beneath them much slower, and <a href="https://www.exploring-castles.com/castle_designs/medieval_castle_defence/">surrounded walls with moats</a> so that tunnels would need to be far deeper. </p>
<p>Although tunneling remained an important aspect of sieges through the 13th century, it was eventually replaced by the introduction of gunpowder artillery – which proved a more effective way to breach fortifications. </p>
<p>However, by the mid-19th century, advances in mining and tunnel construction led to a resurgence in subterranean approaches to warfare.</p>
<p>During the Crimean War in the 1850s, British and French attackers attempted to tunnel under Russian fortifications at the <a href="https://historyofyesterday.com/hell-on-earth-the-siege-of-sevastopol-d9c5b1a5f757">Battle of Sevastopol</a>. Ten years later, Ulysses S. Grant authorized an attempt to tunnel <a href="https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/calamity-crater">under Confederate defenses</a> at the siege of Petersburg, Virginia. In both cases, large caches of gunpowder were placed in chambers created by tunneling under key positions and detonated in coordination with an infantry assault. </p>
<h2>Tunneling in the age of airpower</h2>
<p>With warfare increasingly relying on aircraft in the 20th century, military strategists again turned to tunnels – undetectable from the skies and protected from falling bombs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black and white photo shows two soldiers in the First World War listening to a device while sat in a tunnel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459556/original/file-20220425-13-obg0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459556/original/file-20220425-13-obg0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459556/original/file-20220425-13-obg0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459556/original/file-20220425-13-obg0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459556/original/file-20220425-13-obg0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459556/original/file-20220425-13-obg0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459556/original/file-20220425-13-obg0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Listening in under enemy lines during the First World War.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-war-i-listening-in-a-tunnel-under-the-enemy-lines-in-news-photo/526496610?adppopup=true">adoc-photos/Corbis via Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In World War I, tunneling was attempted as a means to launch surprise attacks on the Western Front, potentially bypassing the other side’s system of trenches and remaining undetected by aerial observers. In particular, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1296207416304216">Ypres salient</a> in war-ravaged Belgium was the site of hundreds of tunnels dug by British and German miners, and the horrifying stories of combat under the earth provide one of the most terrifying vignettes of that awful war.</p>
<p>During World War II, Japanese troops in occupied areas in the Pacific <a href="https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/japanese-tunnels-of-baguio">constructed extensive tunnel networks</a> to make their forces virtually immune to aerial attack and naval bombardment from Allied forces. During amphibious assaults in places such as the Philippines and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iwo-jima-world-war-ii-battle-photo-marines-japan-backstory-2018-2">Iwo Jima</a>, American and Allied forces had to contend with a warren of Japanese tunnel networks. Eventually they resorted to using high explosives to collapse tunnel entrances, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1995/03/15/world/iwo-jima-journal-a-pacific-isle-that-can-t-quite-rest-in-peace.html">trapping thousands</a> of Japanese troops inside. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war/cu-chi-tunnels">Viet Cong tunnel networks</a>, particularly in the vicinity of Saigon, were an essential part of their guerrilla strategy and remain a popular tourist stop today. Some of the tunnels were large enough to house hospital and barracks facilities and strong enough to withstand anything short of nuclear bombardment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A drawing depicts men and women crawling along a tunnel structure in Vietnam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459553/original/file-20220425-2721-wwyj5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459553/original/file-20220425-2721-wwyj5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459553/original/file-20220425-2721-wwyj5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459553/original/file-20220425-2721-wwyj5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459553/original/file-20220425-2721-wwyj5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459553/original/file-20220425-2721-wwyj5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459553/original/file-20220425-2721-wwyj5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diagram of typical tunnel structure in Cu-Chi, Vietnam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cu-chi-tunnels-vietman-asie-news-photo/947633266?adppopup=true">Didier Noirot/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The tunnels not only protected Vietnamese fighters from overwhelming American airpower, they also facilitated hit-and-run style attacks. Specialized “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/opinion/vietnam-war-tunnel-rat.html">tunnel rats</a>,” American soldiers who ventured into the tunnels armed only with a knife and pistol, became adept at navigating the tunnel networks. But they could not be trained in sufficient numbers to negate the value of the tunnel systems.</p>
<h2>Tunnels for terrorism</h2>
<p>In the 21st century, tunnels have been used to facilitate the activities of terror organizations. During the American-led invasion of Afghanistan, military operatives soon discovered that al-Qaida had fortified a series of tunnel networks connecting naturally occurring caves in the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CPRT-111SPRT53709/html/CPRT-111SPRT53709.htm">Tora Bora</a> region.</p>
<p>Not only did they hide the movement of troops and supplies, they <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CPRT-111SPRT53709/html/CPRT-111SPRT53709.htm">proved impervious to virtually every weapon</a> in the U.S.-led coalition’s arsenal. The complexes included air filtration systems to prevent chemical contamination, as well as massive storerooms and sophisticated communications gear allowing al-Qaida leadership to maintain control over their followers.</p>
<p>And tunneling activity <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/04/1003387937/civilians-paid-a-steep-price-for-destroyed-tunnels-in-israeli-hamas-conflict">in and around Gaza</a> continues to provide a tool for Hamas to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/07/21/how-hamas-uses-its-tunnels-to-kill-and-capture-israeli-soldiers/">get fighters into Israeli territory</a>, while at the same time allowing Palestinians to circumvent Israel’s blockade of Gaza’s borders.</p>
<h2>Soviet tunnels and Ukraine</h2>
<p>Many of the tunnels being utilized today in Ukrainian efforts to defend the country were built in the Cold War-era, when the United States <a href="https://www.airforcemag.com/article/0601overfly/">routinely engaged in overflights</a> of Soviet territory.</p>
<p>To counteract the significant air and satellite advantage <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293174/nato-russia-military-comparison/">held by the United States and NATO</a>, the Soviet military dug underground passages under major population centers. </p>
<p>These subterranean systems offered a certain amount of shelter for the civilian population in the event of a nuclear attack and allowed for the movement of military forces unobserved by the ever-present eyes in the sky. </p>
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<p>These same tunnels serve to connect much of the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220413-mariupol-s-tunnel-warriors-seek-to-slow-russian-onslaught">industrial infrastructure</a> in Mariupol today – and have become a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mariupol-ukraine-putin-russia-plans-cancel/">major asset</a> for the outnumbered Ukrainian forces.</p>
<p>Other Ukrainian cities have similar systems, some dating back centuries. For example, Odesa, another key Black Sea port, has a <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44745/odesas-massive-maze-like-catacombs-could-be-bad-news-for-russian-invaders">catacomb network</a> stretching over 2,500 kilometers. It began as part of a limestone mining effort – and to date, there is <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44745/odesas-massive-maze-like-catacombs-could-be-bad-news-for-russian-invaders">no documented map</a> of the full extent of the tunnels. </p>
<p>In the event of a Russian assault on Odesa, the local knowledge of the underground passages might prove to be an extremely valuable asset for the defenders. The fact that more than 1,000 entrances to the catacombs have been identified should surely give Russian attackers pause before commencing any attack upon the city – just as the tunnels under a steelworks in Mariupol forced Putin to rethinks plans to storm the facility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul J. Springer is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. His comments represent his own opinion and do not reflect the official policy of the United States Government, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. Air Force.</span></em></p>Ukrainian fighters are utilizing a maze of tunnels in Mariupol and other key cities. The use of the underground in conflict has a rich history.Paul J. Springer, Professor of Comparative Military Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1802212022-04-21T18:38:29Z2022-04-21T18:38:29ZSpace Blocs: The future of international cooperation in space is splitting along lines of power on Earth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458928/original/file-20220420-20-i1aamw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=305%2C224%2C5604%2C3440&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In the next decade, both a U.S.-led group and a collaboration between Russia and China aim to set up bases on the Moon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/russia-and-china-chess-standoff-royalty-free-image/934301722?adppopup=true">Theasis/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz190">during times of conflict</a> on the ground, space has historically been an arena of collaboration among nations. But trends in the past decade suggest that the nature of cooperation in space is shifting, and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted these changes. </p>
<p><a href="https://svetlabenitzhak.com/">I’m an international relations scholar</a> who studies power distributions in space – who the main players are, what capabilities they possess and whom they decide to cooperate with. Some scholars predict a future in which <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-International-Politics-of-Space/Sheehan/p/book/9780415399173?source=igodigital">single states</a> pursue various levels of <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Astropolitik-Classical-Geopolitics-in-the-Space-Age/Dolman/p/book/9780714681979">dominance</a>, while others foresee a scenario in which <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Security-and-Stability-in-the-New-Space-Age-The-Orbital-Security-Dilemma/Townsend/p/book/9780367432072?source=igodigital">commercial entities bring nations together</a>.</p>
<p>But I believe that the future may be different. In the past few years, groups of nations with similar strategic interests on Earth have come together to further their interests in space, forming what I call “space blocs.”</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A logo of the ISS surrounded by the flags of all the countries that support it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458934/original/file-20220420-24727-sjkw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The International Space Station is the quintessential example of international collaboration in space.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ISS_emblem.png#/media/File:ISS_emblem.png">NASA via WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From state-led space efforts to collaboration</h2>
<p>The U.S. and the Soviet Union dominated space activities during the Cold War. Despite tensions on the ground, both <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=31357">acted carefully to avoid causing crises</a> and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz190">cooperated on a number of projects</a> in space. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://space.oscar.wmo.int/spaceagencies">more countries</a> developed their own space agencies, several international collaborative groups emerged. These include the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/index.html">United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs</a>, the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/index.html">United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space</a> and the <a href="https://public.ccsds.org/default.aspx">Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems</a>. </p>
<p>In 1975, 10 European nations founded the <a href="https://www.esa.int/">European Space Agency</a>. In 1998 the U.S. and Russia joined efforts to build the International Space Station, which is now <a href="https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/blog/the-20-most-frequently-asked-questions-about-the-international-space-station">supported by 15 countries</a>. </p>
<p>These multinational ventures were primarily focused on scientific collaboration and data exchange.</p>
<h2>The emergence of space blocs</h2>
<p>The European Space Agency, which now includes 22 nations, could be considered among the first space blocs. But a more pronounced shift toward this type of power structure can be seen after the end of the Cold War. Countries that shared interests on the ground began coming together to pursue specific mission objectives in space, forming space blocs.</p>
<p>In the past five years, several new space blocs have emerged with various levels of space capabilities. These include the <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/statute-african-space-agency">African Space Agency</a>, with 55 member states; the <a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/en/articulos/signing-of-the-convention-establishing-alce-the-latin-american-and-caribbean-space-agency-283235?idiom=en">Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency</a>, with seven member states; and the <a href="https://trends.aeroexpo.online/project-75745.html">Arab Space Coordination Group</a>, with 12 Middle Eastern member states. </p>
<p>These groups allow for nations to collaborate closely with others in their blocs, but the blocs also compete with one another. Two recent space blocs – the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Artemis Accords</a> and the <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-to-cooperate-on-lunar-orbiter-landing-missions/">Sino-Russian lunar agreement</a> – are an example of such competition.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Buzz Aldrin in a spacesuit on the surface of the Moon next to the U.S. flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=761&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=761&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458935/original/file-20220420-22-vcz8q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=761&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No human has been on the Moon in 50 years, but in the next decade, both the U.S.-led Artemis Accords and a Chinese-Russian mission aim to establish Moon bases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Buzz_salutes_the_U.S._Flag.jpg">NASA/Neil Armstrong via WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Race to the Moon</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Artemis Accords</a> were launched in October 2020. They are led by the U.S. and currently include 18 country members. The group’s goal is to return people to the Moon by 2025 and establish a governing framework for exploring and mining on the Moon, Mars and beyond. The mission aims to build a research station on the south pole of the Moon with a supporting lunar space station called <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/gateway/overview">the Gateway</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, in 2019, Russia and China agreed to collaborate on a <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-to-cooperate-on-lunar-orbiter-landing-missions/">mission to send people</a> to the south pole of the Moon by 2026. This joint Sino-Russian mission also aims to eventually build a <a href="https://www.space.com/russia-china-moon-research-station-agreement">Moon base and place a space station</a> in lunar orbit. </p>
<p>That these blocs do not collaborate to accomplish similar missions on the Moon indicates that strategic interests and rivalries on the ground have been transposed to space.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Any nation can join the Artemis Accords</a>. But Russia and China – along with a number of their allies on Earth – have not done so because some perceive the accords as an effort <a href="https://theconversation.com/artemis-accords-why-many-countries-are-refusing-to-sign-moon-exploration-agreement-148134">to expand the U.S.-dominated international order</a> to outer space.</p>
<p>Similarly, Russia and China plan to open their future lunar research station <a href="https://www.space.com/russia-china-moon-research-station-agreement">to all interested parties</a>, but no Artemis country has expressed interest. The European Space Agency has even <a href="https://www.esa.int/Newsroom/Press_Releases/Redirecting_ESA_programmes_in_response_to_geopolitical_crisis">discontinued several joint projects</a> it had planned with Russia and is instead expanding its partnerships with the U.S. and Japan.</p>
<h2>The impact of space blocs on the ground</h2>
<p>In addition to seeking power in space, countries are also using space blocs to strengthen their spheres of influence on the ground.</p>
<p>One example is the <a href="http://www.apsco.int/">Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization</a>, which was formed in 2005. Led by China, it <a href="https://spacewatch.global/2018/11/asia-pacific-space-cooperation-organisation-members-celebrate-tenth-anniversary/">includes</a> Bangladesh, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand and Turkey. </p>
<p>While its broad goal is the development and launch of satellites, the organization’s <a href="https://trends.aeroexpo.online/project-75745.html">major aim</a> is to expand and normalize the use of the Chinese BeiDou navigation system – the Chinese version of GPS. Countries that use the system could become dependent on China, as is the <a href="https://spacewatch.global/2016/11/irans-growing-dependency-on-chinas-beidou-satellite-navigation/">case of Iran</a>. </p>
<h2>The role of private space companies</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Falcon9 rocket launching off." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458936/original/file-20220420-17-5lvolu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Private companies are now major players in space, but launches – like SpaceX’s many missions – are still under the jurisdiction of the companies’ home nations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasakennedy/49420609803/in/photostream/">NASA/Tony Green</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There has been tremendous <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space">growth of commercial activities in space</a> in the past decade. As a result, some scholars see a future of space cooperation defined by <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Security-and-Stability-in-the-New-Space-Age-The-Orbital-Security-Dilemma/Townsend/p/book/9780367432072">shared commercial interests</a>. In this scenario, commercial entities act as intermediaries between states, uniting them behind specific commercial projects in space.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters?nl=science&source=inline-science-corona-important">Get The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a science newsletter</a></em>]</p>
<p>However, commercial enterprises are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/11/companies-are-commercializing-outer-space-do-government-programs-still-matter/">unlikely to dictate future international cooperation in space</a>. According to current international space law, any company that operates in space does so <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html#:%7E:text=Article%20VIII,or%20on%20a%20celestial%20body">as an extension of</a> – and under the jurisdiction of – its home nation’s government.</p>
<p>The dominance of states over companies in space affairs has been starkly exemplified through the Ukraine crisis. As a result of state-imposed sanctions, many commercial space companies have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/uk-satellite-company-oneweb-suspends-baikonur-launches-2022-03-03/">stopped collaborating</a> with Russia.</p>
<p>Given the current legal framework, it seems most likely that states – not commercial entities – will continue to dictate the rules in space. </p>
<h2>Space blocs for collaboration or conflict</h2>
<p>I believe that going forward, state formations – such as space blocs – will serve as the major means through which states further their national interests in space and on the ground. There are many benefits when nations come together and form space blocs. Space is hard, so pooling resources, manpower and know-how makes sense. However, such a system also comes with inherent dangers.</p>
<p>History offers many examples showing that the more rigid alliances become, <a href="https://wcfia.harvard.edu/publications/understanding-global-conflict-and-cooperation-introduction-theory-and-history">the more likely</a> conflict is to ensue. The growing rigidity of two alliances – the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance – at the end of 19th century is often cited as the <a href="https://wcfia.harvard.edu/publications/understanding-global-conflict-and-cooperation-introduction-theory-and-history">key trigger</a> of World War I.</p>
<p>A key lesson therein is that as long as existing space blocs remain flexible and open to all, cooperation will flourish and the world may yet avoid an open conflict in space. Maintaining the focus on scientific goals and exchanges between and within space blocs – while keeping political rivalries at bay – will help to ensure the future of international cooperation in space.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Svetla Ben-Itzhak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the past 10 years, international alliances on Earth have begun to expand into space. Nations with similar interests collaborate with one another while competing with other space blocs.Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1770232022-03-01T13:37:02Z2022-03-01T13:37:02ZAn asteroid impact could wipe out an entire city – a space security expert explains NASA’s plans to prevent a potential catastrophe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447109/original/file-20220217-25-11g19ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C158%2C5097%2C3275&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A giant asteroid struck Earth and wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/chicxulub-asteroid-impact-royalty-free-illustration/713781277?adppopup=true">Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Earth exists in a dangerous environment. Cosmic bodies, like asteroids and comets, are constantly zooming through space and often crash into our planet. Most of these are too small to pose a threat, but some can be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/16/opinion/16iht-edschweick.4929643.html">cause for concern</a>.</p>
<p>As a scholar who <a href="https://svetlabenitzhak.com/2017/07/10/about/">studies space and international security</a>, it is my job to ask what the likelihood of an object crashing into the planet really is – and whether governments are spending enough money to prevent such an event.</p>
<p>To find the answers to these questions, one has to know what near-Earth objects are out there. To date, NASA has tracked only an estimated <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">40% of the bigger ones</a>. Surprise asteroids have visited Earth in the past and will undoubtedly do so in the future. When they do appear, how prepared will humanity be?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing thousands of blue orbits overlapping with Earth's own orbit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447112/original/file-20220217-1111-ukmxoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The orbits of thousands of asteroids (in blue) cross paths with the orbits of planets (in white), including Earth’s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210829.html">NASA/JPL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The threat from asteroids and comets</h2>
<p>Millions of objects of various sizes orbit the Sun. Near-Earth objects include asteroids and comets whose orbits will bring them <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/neo_groups.html">within 120 million miles</a> (193 million kilometers) of the Sun.</p>
<p>Astronomers consider a near-Earth object a threat if it will <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/neo_groups.html">come within 4.6 million miles</a> (7.4 million km) of the planet and is at least 460 feet (140 meters) in diameter. If a celestial body of this size crashed into Earth, it could destroy an entire city and cause extreme regional devastation. Larger objects - 0.6 miles (1 km) or more - could have global effects and even cause mass extinctions.</p>
<p>The most famous and destructive impact took place 65 million years ago when a 6-mile (10-km) diameter <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691169668/t-rex-and-the-crater-of-doom">asteroid crashed into what is now the Yucatán Peninsula</a>. It <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177265">wiped out most plant and animal species</a> on Earth, including the dinosaurs.</p>
<p>But smaller objects can also cause significant damage. In 1908, an approximately 164-foot (50-meter) celestial body exploded over the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0019103518305104?via%3Dihub">Tunguska</a> river in Siberia. It <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/the-tunguska-event-1.742329">leveled</a> more than 80 million trees over 830 square miles (2,100 square km). In 2013, an asteroid only 65 feet (20 meters) across burst in the atmosphere 20 miles (32 km) above Chelyabinsk, Russia. It released the equivalent of 30 Hiroshima bombs worth of energy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1242642">injured over 1,100 people</a> and caused US$33 million in damage.</p>
<p>The next asteroid of substantial size to potentially hit Earth is asteroid 2005 ED224. When the 164-foot (50-meter) asteroid passes by on March 11, 2023, there is roughly a <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2005%20ED224">1 in 500,000 chance of impact</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing the number of known large, medium and small near-Earth objects." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447113/original/file-20220217-25-4n6zxf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NASA has been steadily finding and tracking near-Earth objects since the 1990s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/totals.html">NASA/JPL-Caltech</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Watching the skies</h2>
<p>While the <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/NEO-Impact-Threat-Protocols-Jan2021.pdf">chances of a larger cosmic body impacting Earth are small</a>, the devastation <a href="http://mpainesyd.com/idisk/Public/rocks_from_space/chapman4oecd.pdf">would be enormous</a>.</p>
<p>Congress recognized this threat, and in <a href="https://archive.org/details/nasa_techdoc_19920025001">the 1998 Spaceguard Survey</a>, it tasked NASA to find and track 90% of near-Earth objects 0.6 miles (1 km) across or bigger within 10 years. NASA <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/WISE/multimedia/gallery/neowise/pia14734.html">surpassed the 90% goal</a> in 2011. </p>
<p>In 2005, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-119/pdf/STATUTE-119-Pg2895.pdf">Congress passed another bill</a> requiring NASA to expand its search and track at least 90% of all near-Earth objects 460 feet (140 meters) or larger by the end of 2020. That year has come and gone and, mostly due to <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12842/defending-planet-earth-near-earth-object-surveys-and-hazard-mitigation">a lack of financial resources</a>, only <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">40% of those objects have been mapped</a>. </p>
<p>As of Feb. 14, 2022, <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/totals.html">astronomers have located 28,266</a> near-Earth asteroids, of which 10,033 are 460 feet (140 meters) or larger in diameter and 888 at least 0.6 miles (1 km) across. About <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">30 new objects</a> are added each week.</p>
<p>A new mission, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5503/text#toc-HB5A37F19BF1E40DC8CF66F29EAE2DD66">funded by Congress in 2018</a>, is scheduled to launch in 2026 an infrared, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-approves-asteroid-hunting-space-telescope-to-continue-development">space-based telescope</a> – NEO Surveyor – dedicated to <a href="https://neos.arizona.edu/">searching for potentially dangerous asteroids</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Yl2f46L5DJ4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Smaller asteroids, like the one that exploded over Russia in 2013, can strike Earth without warning, but larger, more dangerous objects have surprised astronomers, too.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cosmic surprises</h2>
<p>We can only prevent a disaster if we know it is coming, and asteroids have sneaked up on Earth before. </p>
<p>An asteroid the size of a football field – dubbed the “City-killer” – passed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/07/26/it-snuck-up-us-city-killer-asteroid-just-missed-earth-scientists-almost-didnt-detect-it-time/">less than 45,000 miles</a> from Earth in 2019. An asteroid the size of a 747 jet <a href="https://www.jpost.com/science/747-sized-asteroid-skimmed-by-earth-and-scientists-didnt-see-it-coming-680052">came close</a> in 2021 as did a 0.6-mile (1-km) wide <a href="https://www.space.com/16263-asteroid-2012lz1-size-earth-flyby.html">asteroid</a> in 2012. Each of these was discovered only <a href="https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Asteroid_s_surprise_close_approach_illustrates_need_for_more_eyes_on_the_sky">about a day</a> before they passed Earth. </p>
<p>Research suggests that one reason may be that Earth’s rotation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2021.114735">creates a blind spot</a> whereby some asteroids remain undetected or appear stationary. This may be a problem, as some surprise asteroids do not miss us. In 2008, astronomers spotted a small <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/2008tc3.html">asteroid</a> only 19 hours before it crashed into rural Sudan. And the recent <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/astronomers-have-discovered-a-surprise-asteroid-orbiting-between-mercury-and-venus">discovery</a> of an asteroid 1.2 miles (2 km) in diameter suggests that there are still big objects lurking.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A drawing of a spacecraft approaching two asteroids." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447115/original/file-20220217-15-mq01h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NASA’s DART mission will crash a small spacecraft into the double asteroid Didymos to see if it will change the asteroid’s orbit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/stay-tuned-for-dart">NASA/JHUAPL/Steve Gribben</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>To protect the planet from cosmic dangers, early detection is key. At the 2021 Planetary Defense Conference, scientists recommended a minimum of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-asteroid-simulation-reveals-need-years-of-warning-2021-5">five to 10 years’ preparation time</a> to mount a successful defense against hazardous asteroids. </p>
<p>If astronomers find a dangerous object, there are <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12842/defending-planet-earth-near-earth-object-surveys-and-hazard-mitigation">four ways</a> to mitigate a disaster. The first involves regional first-aid and evacuation measures. A second approach would involve sending a spacecraft to fly near a small- or medium-sized asteroid; the gravity of the craft would slowly change the object’s orbit. To <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12842/defending-planet-earth-near-earth-object-surveys-and-hazard-mitigation">change a bigger asteroid’s path</a>, we can either crash something into it at high speeds or detonate a nuclear warhead nearby.</p>
<p>These may seem like far-fetched ideas, but in November 2021, NASA launched the world’s first full-scale planetary defense mission as a proof of concept: the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/dart">Double Asteroid Redirection Test</a>, or DART. The <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/asteroids/didymos/in-depth/">large asteroid Didymos</a> and its small moon currently pose no threat to Earth. In September 2022, NASA plans to change the asteroid’s orbit by crashing a 1,340-pound (610 kg) probe into Didymos’ moon at a speed of approximately 14,000 mph (22,500 kph). </p>
<p>Learning more about what threatening asteroids are made of is also important, as their composition may affect how successful we are at deflecting them. The <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/bennu-top-ten">asteroid Bennu</a> is 1,620 feet (490 meters) in diameter. Its orbit will bring it dangerously close to Earth on Sept. 24, 2182, and there is a <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=101955">1 in 2,700</a> chance of a collision. An asteroid of this size could wipe out an entire continent, so to learn more about Bennu, NASA launched the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/osiris-rex">OSIRIS-Rex</a> probe in 2016. The spacecraft arrived at Bennu, took pictures, collected samples and is due to return to Earth in 2023. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=weekly&source=inline-weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>Spending on planetary defense</h2>
<p>In 2021, NASA’s planetary defense budget was <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/updated_fy_2021_spend_plan_june_2021.pdf">$158 million</a>. This is just <a href="https://www.planetary.org/articles/nasas-planetary-defense-budget-growth">0.7%</a> of NASA’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/fy2022_budget_summary.pdf">total budget</a> and just 0.02% of the roughly <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/FY2021-Defense-Budget/">$700 billion 2021 U.S. defense budget</a>.</p>
<p>This budget supports a number of missions, including the NEO Surveyor at <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSngWs2AJa9KoPByrpX-XUgqD6UcMdjl3IW1xAW-m3yCvjreNM6d9KFWkshhxE_sPW9JmgmsaV0NwbG/pubhtml">$83 million</a>, DART at <a href="https://www.planetary.org/space-policy/cost-of-dart">$324 million</a> and Osiris Rex at around <a href="https://www.planetary.org/space-policy/cost-of-osiris-rex">$1 billion</a> over several years.</p>
<p>Is this the right amount to invest in monitoring the skies, given the fact that some <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq">60% of all potentially dangerous asteroids remain undetected</a>? This is an important question to ask when one considers the potential consequences.</p>
<p>Investing in planetary defense is akin to buying homeowners insurance. The likelihood of experiencing an event that destroys your house is very small, yet people buy insurance nonetheless.</p>
<p>If even a single object larger than 460 feet (140 meters) hits the planet, the devastation and loss of life would be extreme. A bigger impact could quite literally wipe out most species on Earth. Even if no such body is expected to hit Earth in the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-very-real-effort-to-track-killer-asteroids-and-comets-180979206/">next 100 years</a>, the chance is not zero. In this low likelihood versus high consequences scenario, investing in protecting the planet from dangerous cosmic objects may give humanity some peace of mind and could prevent a catastrophe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177023/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Defense, or of any organization the author is affiliated with, including the Air University, Air War College, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Space Force.</span></em></p>NASA has only mapped 40% of the potentially dangerous asteroids that could crash into Earth. New projects will boost that number, and upcoming missions will test tech that could prevent collisions.Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, West Space Seminar, Air War College, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1778912022-02-25T13:46:03Z2022-02-25T13:46:03ZRussian invasion of Ukraine and resulting US sanctions threaten the future of the International Space Station<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448437/original/file-20220224-63392-1p400w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C45%2C1701%2C1128&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The International Space Station is run collectively by the U.S., Russia, the European Space Agency, Japan and Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasamarshall/3907196583/in/photolist-6Xgpqk-yHjaMW-NqxNon-QYAfVi-MCJ5Tj-LGPFNe-vGWF4r-PXaMxc-oN3xdH-MSPRQ2-oMroEb-MbfSPh-9bTgAP-ak8Nkt-eHSdwp-9pzSDn-QsVrt3-6Xsffx-MAv2L4-6UuDmQ-Pah2Lr-PcLPc9-bfqNSX-Rv7qri-QZW9op-aBP3J4-QjfUiS-RgvHvr-QPTBJs-zj5VZD-9e8hcg-Na7Ypm-KZKmEP-fWFARy-B8kHmM-QoZztJ-QRonqA-MMZDtA-P4SLt7-aqUi9F-2kAugx4-2mCoQsh-MVyhL3-2mU6HBN-amD2x7-LTnpKt-2kW4xoj-2n5118N-H9HKsz-2mGbPm8">NASA Marshall Spaceflight Center/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New U.S. sanctions on Russia <a href="https://spacenews.com/biden-sanctions-will-degrade-russian-space-program/">will encompass Russia’s space agency</a>, Roscosmos, according to a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8jA2LyBBxY">speech U.S. President Joe Biden gave</a> on Feb. 24, 2022.</p>
<p>In response to these sanctions, the head of Roscosmos on the same day <a href="https://spacenews.com/biden-sanctions-will-degrade-russian-space-program/">posted a tweet saying</a>, among other things, “If you block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled deorbit and fall into the United States or Europe?”</p>
<p>The International Space Station has often stayed above the fray of geopolitics. That position is under threat.</p>
<p>Built and run by the U.S., Russia, Europe, Japan and Canada, the ISS has shown how countries can cooperate on major projects in space. The station has been continuously occupied for over 20 years and has <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/visitors-to-the-station-by-country/">hosted more than 250 people</a> from 19 countries.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As a space policy expert</a>, the ISS represents, to me, a high point of cooperation in space exploration. But for <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/index.html">the current crew</a> of two Russians, four Americans and one German, things may be getting worrisome as tensions rise between the U.S. and Russia. </p>
<p>Several agreements and systems are in place to make sure that the space station can function smoothly while being run by five different space agencies. As of Feb. 24, there were no announcements of unusual actions aboard the station despite the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the Russian government has brought the ISS into geopolitics before and is doing so again.</p>
<h2>Managing the ISS</h2>
<p>What came to be known as the International Space Station was first conceived on NASA drawing boards in the early 1980s. As costs rose past initial estimates, <a href="https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1524&context=jalc">NASA officials invited international partners</a> from the European Space Agency, Canada and Japan to join the project. </p>
<p>When the Soviet Union collapsed at the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, the Russian space program <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/soviet-space-program-history-4140631">found itself in dire straits</a>, suffering from lack of funding and an exodus of engineers and program officials. To take advantage of <a href="https://www.space.com/19650-mir-space-station.html">Russian expertise in space stations</a> and foster post-Cold War cooperation, the NASA administrator at the time, Dan Goldin, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.07.003">convinced the Clinton administration</a> to bring Russia into the program that was rechristened the International Space Station. </p>
<p>By 1998, just prior to the launch of the first modules, Russia, the U.S. and the other international partners of the ISS entered into <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/partners_agreement.html">memorandums of understanding</a> that spelled out how major decisions would be made and what kind of control each nation would have over various parts of the station.</p>
<p>The body that <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/nasa_rsa.html">governs the operation of the space station</a> is the Multilateral Coordination Board. This board has representatives from each of the space agencies involved in the ISS and is chaired by the U.S. The board operates by consensus in making decisions on things like a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8677856_The_Code_of_conduct_for_International_Space_Station_crews">code of conduct for ISS crews</a>. </p>
<p>Even among international partners who want to work together, consensus is not always possible. If this happens, either the chair of the board can make decisions on how to move forward or the issue can be elevated to the NASA administrator and the head of the Russian space agency, Roscosmos.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing the different parts of the ISS." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448439/original/file-20220224-64024-f723h2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The International Space Station is built of many individual modules that are fully under the control of the countries or agencies that built them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ISS_configuration_2021-11_en.svg#/media/File:ISS_configuration_2021-11_en.svg">NASA / Colds7ream, Fritzbox, Johndrinkwater, Ras67, Chepry via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Territories in space</h2>
<p>While the overall operations of the station are run by the Multilateral Coordination Board, things are more complicated when it comes to the modules themselves. </p>
<p>The International Space Station is made of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/space-station-assembly">16 different segments</a> constructed by different countries, including the U.S., Russia, Japan, Italy and the European Space Agency. Under the ISS agreements, each country maintains control over how its modules are used. This includes the Russian <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/zarya-cargo-module">Zarya</a>, which provides electricity and propulsion to the station, and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/zvezda-service-module.html">Zvezda</a>, which provides all of the station’s life support systems like oxygen production and water recycling.</p>
<p>The result is that ISS modules are treated legally as if they are <a href="https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/International_Space_Station/International_Space_Station_legal_framework">territorial extensions</a> of their countries of origin. While all crew onboard can theoretically be in and use any of the modules, how they are used must be approved by each country.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white Soyuz rocket lifting off from a launch pad." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1232&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1232&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448438/original/file-20220224-17-n5pr3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1232&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For nearly 10 years, the Russian Soyuz rocket was the only way for astronauts to get to the ISS.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Soyuz_TMA-13_Edit.jpg#/media/File:Soyuz_TMA-13_Edit.jpg">NASA/Bill Ingalls via WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>International tensions and the ISS</h2>
<p>While the ISS has functioned under this structure remarkably well since its launch more than 20 years ago, there have been some disputes. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine.html">When Russian forces annexed</a> the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014, the U.S. imposed economic sanctions on Russia. As a result, Russian officials <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/5/13/5714650/russia-just-evicted-nasa-from-the-international-space-station">announced that they would no longer launch</a> U.S. astronauts to and from the space station beginning in 2020. Since NASA had retired the space shuttle in 2011, the U.S. was entirely dependent on Russian rockets to get astronauts to and from the ISS, and this threat could have meant the end of the American presence aboard the space station entirely.</p>
<p>While Russia did not follow through on its threat and continued to transport U.S. astronauts, the threat needed to be taken seriously. The situation today is quite different. The U.S. has been relying on private SpaceX rockets to transport astronauts to and from the ISS. This makes potential Russian threats to launch access less meaningful. </p>
<p>But the invasion of Ukraine does seem to have upped the intensity of geopolitical maneuvering involving the ISS. </p>
<p>The new U.S. sanctions are designed to “<a href="https://spacenews.com/biden-sanctions-will-degrade-russian-space-program/">degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program</a>.” The <a href="https://twitter.com/Rogozin/status/1496933548372209669?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496933548372209669%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fspacenews.com%2Fbiden-sanctions-will-degrade-russian-space-program%2F">tweet in response</a> from Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Roscosmos, “explained” that Russian modules are key to moving the station when it needs to dodge <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-space-debris-cleanup-might-be-a-national-security-threat-105816">space junk</a> or adjust its orbit. He went on to say that Russia could either <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-space-agency-head-suggests-sanctions-may-lead-to-iss-plummeting/ar-AAUgEIH">refuse to move the station when needed or even crash it into the U.S., Europe, India or China</a>. </p>
<p>Though dramatic, this is likely an idle threat due to both political consequences and the practical difficulty of getting Russian cosmonauts off the ISS safely. But I am concerned about how the invasion will affect the remaining years of the space station.</p>
<p>In December 2021, the <a href="https://spacenews.com/other-iss-partners-start-planning-for-extension-to-2030/">U.S. announced its intention to</a> extend operation of ISS operations from its planned end date of 2024 to 2030. Most ISS partners expressed support for the plan, but Russia will also need to agree to keep the ISS operating beyond 2024. Without Russia’s support, the station – and all of its scientific and cooperative achievements – may face an early end.</p>
<p>The ISS has served as a prime example for how nations can cooperate with one another in an endeavor that has been relatively free from politics. Increasing tensions, threats and more aggressive Russian actions – including its <a href="https://theconversation.com/russian-anti-satellite-weapon-test-what-happened-and-what-are-the-risks-172016">recent test of anti-satellite weapons</a> – are straining the realities of international cooperation in space going forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components. </span></em></p>What happens to the International Space Station when tensions on Earth rise? A space policy expert explains how the ISS is run and how Russian aggression has threatened its operation in the past – and now.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1720162021-11-16T23:58:54Z2021-11-16T23:58:54ZRussian anti-satellite weapon test: What happened and what are the risks?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432281/original/file-20211116-25-1uty5z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=120%2C0%2C1796%2C948&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If a satellite is destroyed, the debris fans out in orbit and poses serious threats to other satellites or crewed spacecraft. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_break-up_ESA375611.tiff#/media/File:Satellite_break-up_ESA375611.tiff">ESA/ID&Sense/ONiRiXEL via WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On Nov. 15, 2021, U.S. officials announced that they had detected a dangerous new debris field in orbit near Earth. Later in the day, it was confirmed that Russia had destroyed one of its old satellites in a test of an anti-satellite weapon. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ">Wendy Whitman Cobb is a space security researcher</a>. She explains what these weapons are and why the debris they create is a problem now – and in the future.</em></p>
<h2>What do we know?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.spacecom.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2842957/russian-direct-ascent-anti-satellite-missile-test-creates-significant-long-last/">Russia launched an anti-satellite test</a> that destroyed one of its older satellites. The satellite broke up and created thousands of pieces of debris in orbit, ranging in size from tiny specks up to pieces a few feet across. This space junk will linger in orbit for years, potentially colliding with other satellites as well as the International Space Station. The <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-administrator-statement-on-russian-asat-test/">space station crew has already had to shelter</a> in place as they passed near the debris cloud.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A long white and red missile on display." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432283/original/file-20211116-19-enwd7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many anti-satellite weapons are missiles launched from the ground, like this U.S. ASM-135 ASAT.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Asat_missile_20040710_150339_1.4.jpg#/media/File:Asat_missile_20040710_150339_1.4.jpg">Lorax via WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s an anti-satellite weapon?</h2>
<p><a href="https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/210331_Harrison_SpaceThreatAssessment2021.pdf?gVYhCn79enGCOZtcQnA6MLkeKlcwqqks">Anti-satellite weapons</a>, commonly referred to as ASATs, are any weapon that can temporarily impair or permanently destroy an orbiting satellite. The one that Russia just tested is known as a <a href="https://www.spacecom.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2842957/russian-direct-ascent-anti-satellite-missile-test-creates-significant-long-last/">direct ascent kinetic anti-satellite weapon</a>. These are usually launched from the ground or from the wings of an airplane and destroy satellites by running into them at high speeds.</p>
<p>A similar weapon type, called <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/aerospace101/counterspace-weapons-101/">co-orbital anti-satellite weapons</a>, are first launched into orbit and then change direction to collide with the targeted satellite from space. </p>
<p>A third type, <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/aerospace101/counterspace-weapons-101/">non-kinetic anti-satellite weapons</a>, use technology like lasers to disrupt satellites without physically colliding with them.</p>
<p>Space agencies have been <a href="https://swfound.org/counterspace/">developing and testing anti-satellite weapons</a> since the 1960s. To date, the <a href="https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4198/1">U.S.</a>, <a href="https://www.spacecom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/Article/2285098/russia-conducts-space-based-anti-satellite-weapons-test/">Russia</a>, <a href="https://swfound.org/media/9550/chinese_asat_fact_sheet_updated_2012.pdf">China</a> and <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-05/news/indian-asat-test-raises-space-risks">India</a> have demonstrated the ability to attack satellites in orbit that support services like GPS, communications and weather forecasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image of the Earth with many red lines surrounding it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432284/original/file-20211116-23-1bg1lxk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Debris from a single destroyed satellite can spread out rapidly, as seen in this image showing the orbits of debris from a Chinese satellite one month after it was destroyed in 2007.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fengyun-1C_debris.jpg">NASA Orbital Debris Program Office via WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is debris a problem?</h2>
<p>Regardless of the cause, space debris is a serious problem. </p>
<p>Larger pieces are easier to track and avoid but it’s difficult to track pieces smaller than 4 inches (10 centimeters). Even small debris can still pose a major threat though. Space debris <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html">is often traveling faster than 17,000 mph</a> around the Earth. At that speed, pieces of debris could destroy any spacecraft or satellite it collided with. In the 1980s, <a href="https://www.thespacereview.com/article/2520/1">a Soviet satellite broke up</a> as a result of a suspected debris strike. </p>
<p>More worrisome is the danger debris poses to crewed space missions. In July 2021, one of the International Space Station’s <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/space-junk-damages-international-space-stations-robotic-arm-rcna1067">robotic arms was struck</a> by a piece of debris that put a 0.2-inch (0.5 cm) hole clean through a part of the arm. While the damage did not need to be fixed, officials characterized it as a lucky strike – if it had struck a different part of the station, the situation could have been a lot worse.</p>
<p>Space debris is also a significant threat to people on Earth. Satellites play a vital role in the global economy through GPS, communications and weather data. If services such as these were disrupted, there would be <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Privatizing-Peace-How-Commerce-Can-Reduce-Conflict-in-Space/Cobb/p/book/9780367337834">significant economic cost</a>. One study found that a GPS outage could <a href="https://www.space.commerce.gov/doc-study-on-economic-benefits-of-gps/">cost the U.S. up to $1 billion a day</a>.</p>
<p>There are currently <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html">thousands of pieces of space junk</a> circling the Earth, with sources as varied as old rocket bodies, dead satellites, debris from previous collisions and tests, and lost items from astronauts. The problem – like with the environment – is that there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-a-satellite-falls-on-your-house-space-law-protects-you-but-there-are-no-legal-penalties-for-leaving-junk-in-orbit-160757">little incentive for individual countries</a> to avoid generating debris or clean it up.</p>
<p>The amount of space debris has only increased over time. For years, scientists have been warning about the possibility of a collision cascade. <a href="https://www.space.com/kessler-syndrome-space-debris">As the amount of debris increases</a>, the chance of collisions between it and other satellites and debris also goes up. More collisions might then leave certain orbits completely unusable. While this could take decades to play out, events like the Russian test will only make such an outcome more likely.</p>
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<h2>What to do now?</h2>
<p>In the short term, little can be done to mitigate this new cloud of space debris, but anyone with anything in space is on high alert to avoid it.</p>
<p>The U.S. government and commercial companies are tracking the new debris, and the crew on the International Space Station have been <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/satellite-debris-space-station-crew-take-shelter/">ordered to keep certain modules closed off</a> as they continue to pass through the debris cloud. As the new debris spreads out and the pieces are tracked, station controllers will have a better understanding of the danger posed to the crew.</p>
<p>In the long run, <a href="https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Global_experts_agree_action_needed_on_space_debris">experts recommend</a> working on global solutions to remove debris. This includes taking measures to prevent debris in the first place and removing debris that is already in space. Several governmental and international organizations have <a href="https://spacenews.com/u-s-interagency-panel-to-update-rd-strategy-to-tackle-orbital-debris/">proposed ways to prevent new debris</a>, but these are informal and not legally binding.</p>
<p>Remediation is a tougher challenge. Technology to remove debris has not yet been fully developed, but even still, its <a href="https://swfound.org/news/all-news/2019/07/analysis-of-the-potential-misuse-of-commercial-dual-use-technologies-for-satellite-servicing/">deployment is a sensitive subject</a>. The same technology that might be used to remove a piece of space junk could also be used for attacking a satellite. This dual-use technology poses challenges, as it can raise suspicions that <a href="https://www.space.com/china-launches-military-space-junk-satellite">countries are testing</a> anti-satellite weapons under the cover of debris removal. </p>
<p>Despite the difficulties, there is growing international recognition that space debris is a dangerous problem. A consortium of private companies recently created the <a href="https://spacenews.com/space-companies-forge-alliance-to-reduce-in-orbit-debris-by-2030/">Net Zero Space charter</a> to reduce debris, and the <a href="https://spacenews.com/space-force-launches-orbital-prime-program-to-spur-market-for-on-orbit-services/">U.S. Space Force is looking for ways</a> to combat the problem as well. While the world still does not yet have a full understanding of Russia’s actions, this event is a wake-up call on the importance of efforts to reduce pollution in Earth’s orbit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components.</span></em></p>Russia destroyed one of its old satellites during a successful test of an anti-satellite weapon. A space security expert explains what this weapon was and the dangers of the expanding debris field.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1676112021-09-10T12:26:08Z2021-09-10T12:26:08ZSpaceX Inspiration4 mission sent 4 people with minimal training into orbit – and brought space tourism closer to reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420346/original/file-20210909-17-15tww6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C210%2C4058%2C2612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Four people – none of them trained astronauts – launched into orbit aboard a SpaceX Dragon capsule on Sept. 15, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa2explore/8530582531/in/photolist-dZVaGL-dZVaEJ-dZPsZa-2j34sP1-2k5dwqg-2ih9wyp-2k5dwrd-2jsKxeR-2k7E9ZN-WHwz7z-2k5VEYS-2kVWxe5-2kVWsvN-2k7yNbd-2k7DYVJ-2k7vqNA-2dGyCqB-2j8rivC-2k7YwjW-2k7zrHo-2dGyCpe-2f1MeNC-2f1MeNY-2j6kLfz-2k7YAXy-2k7UeMw-2k7ySXh-2k7yXom-2k7urC3-6EK8CM-2kc9oZc-2dGyCsa-2jsJfFm-2k7Echy-2k7DQWD-2k7uKC6-2k7uNCz-2j8sAnT-b86SYZ-2kVSpM1-2f1MePj-2k7uGoL-2k7zwgX-2k7uDjQ-2k7zeLr-2jsJfQj-2gTsp44-2j6jfPB-2k7EdsE-2k7uUGJ/">NASA Johnson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just after 8 p.m. EST on Sept. 15, 2021, the next batch of space tourists lifted off aboard a SpaceX rocket. Organized and funded by entrepreneur <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/jared-isaacman/?sh=c09ad2548698">Jared Isaacman</a>, the <a href="https://inspiration4.com/">Inspiration4 mission</a> touts itself as “the first all-civilian mission to orbit” and represents a new type of space tourism.</p>
<p>The four crew members are not the first space tourists this year. In the past few months, the world witnessed billionaires Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos launching themselves and a lucky few others into space on brief <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-a-suborbital-flight-an-aerospace-engineer-explains-164279">suborbital trips</a>.</p>
<p>While there are similarities between those launches and Inspiration4 – the mission is being paid for by one billionaire and is using a rocket built by another, Elon Musk – the differences are noteworthy. From my perspective as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">space policy expert</a>, the mission’s <a href="https://www.inverse.com/innovation/inspiration4-spacex-netflix">emphasis on public involvement</a> and the fact that Inspiration4 put regular people into orbit where they will stay for three days make it a milestone in space tourism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four people standing in front of a rocket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420348/original/file-20210909-13-1n1m13x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The four crew members of the Inspiration4 mission are a physician assistant, a data engineer, a geoscientist and billionaire Jared Isaacman, left.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/inspiration4photos/51258513164/">Inspiration4/John Kraus via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why Inspiration4 is different</h2>
<p>The biggest difference between Inspiration4 and the flights performed earlier this year is the destination. </p>
<p>Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic took – and in the future, will take – their passengers on <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-a-suborbital-flight-an-aerospace-engineer-explains-164279">suborbital launches</a>. Their vehicles go only high enough to reach the beginning of space before returning to the ground a few minutes later. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and crew Dragon vehicle, however, are much more powerful and have taken the Inspiration4 crew all the way into orbit, where they will circle the Earth for three days.</p>
<p>The four-person crew is also quite different from those on the other launches. Led by Isaacman, the mission features a somewhat diverse group of people. One crew member, <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-science/2021/03/30/arizona-educator-sian-proctor-set-join-1st-spacex-private-flight/4804984001/">Sian Proctor</a>, won a contest among people who use Isaacman’s online payment company. Another unique aspect of the mission is that one of its goals is to raise awareness of and funds for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. As such, Isaacman selected <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/22/science/spacex-hayley-arceneaux.html">Hayley Arceneaux</a>, a physician assistant at St. Jude and childhood cancer survivor, to participate in the launch. The final member, <a href="https://www.geekwire.com/2021/everett-engineer-arizona-prof-join-billionaires-crew-charity-space-trip/">Christopher Sembroski</a>, won his seat when his friend was chosen in a charity raffle for St. Jude and offered his seat to Sembroski.</p>
<p>Because none of the four participants had any prior formal astronaut training, the flight has been called the first all-civilian space mission. While the rocket and crew capsule are both fully automated – no one on board needed to control any part of the launch or landing – the four members still needed to go through much more training than the people on the suborbital flights. In less than six months, <a href="https://www.axios.com/spacex-astronaut-training-inspiration4-b3378a9a-88f9-4fb3-94a4-0e402453488c.html">crew members have undergone</a> hours of simulator training and lessons in flying a jet aircraft and spent time in a centrifuge to prepare them for the G-forces of launch.</p>
<p>Social outreach has also been an important aspect of the mission. While Bezos’ and Branson’s flights brought on <a href="https://theconversation.com/billionaire-space-race-the-ultimate-symbol-of-capitalisms-flawed-obsession-with-growth-164511">criticism of billionaire playboys in space</a>, Inspiration4 has tried – <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/08/1035219/netflix-spacex-docuseries-inspiration4-countdown/">with mixed results</a> – to make space tourism more relatable. The crew recently appeared on the <a href="https://time.com/6083977/jared-isaacman-inspiration4-profile/">cover of Time magazine</a> and is the subject of an ongoing <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/81441273">Netflix documentary</a>.</p>
<p>There have also been other fundraising events for St. Jude, including a <a href="https://inspiration4miler.com/">4-mile virtual run</a> and the planned <a href="https://www.space.com/inspiration4-space-beer-hops-auction">auction of beer hops</a> that will be flown on the mission. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Colorful green and pink hues in the atmosphere of Earth with the blackness of space in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420350/original/file-20210909-13-v16k6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Inspiration4 mission is a step toward giving more people access to views like this – the aurora borealis seen from the International Space Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/aurora-australis-lights-up-the-sky">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future of space tourism?</h2>
<p>Sending a crew of amateur astronauts into orbit is a significant step in the development of space tourism. However, despite the more inclusive feel of the mission, there are still serious barriers to overcome before average people can go to space.</p>
<p>For one, the cost remains quite high. Though three of the four are not rich, Isaacman is a billionaire and <a href="https://time.com/6083977/jared-isaacman-inspiration4-profile/">paid an estimated $200 million</a> to fund the trip. The need to train for a mission like this also means that prospective passengers must be able to devote significant amounts of time to prepare – time that many ordinary people don’t have.</p>
<p>Finally, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/hrp/5-hazards-of-human-spaceflight">space remains a dangerous place</a>, and there will never be a way to fully remove the danger of launching people – whether untrained civilians or seasoned professional astronauts – into space.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 110,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Despite these limitations, orbital space tourism is coming. For SpaceX, Inspiration4 is an important proof of concept that demonstrated the safety and reliability of their autonomous rocket and capsule systems. Indeed, SpaceX has <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/spacex-signs-blockbuster-deal-to-send-space-tourists-to-the-iss/">several tourist missions planned in the next few months</a>, even though the company isn’t focused on space tourism. Some will even includes stops at the International Space Station.</p>
<p>Even as space remains out of reach for most on Earth, Inspiration4 is an example of how billionaire space barons’ efforts to include more people on their journeys can give an otherwise exclusive activity a wider public appeal.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Sept. 10, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components.</span></em></p>The Inspiration4 mission sent four civilians to space for three days. Though still funded by a billionaire, the mission is a step forward in the nascent space tourism industry.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1605102021-05-07T12:44:42Z2021-05-07T12:44:42ZSpace tourism is here – 20 years after the first stellar tourist, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin plans to send civilians to space<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399324/original/file-20210506-17-zm3v4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4114%2C2792&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Astronaut Tracy Caldwell Dyson on the International Space Station with a view many more are likely to see soon. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tracy_Caldwell_Dyson_in_Cupola_ISS.jpg#/media/File:Tracy_Caldwell_Dyson_in_Cupola_ISS.jpg">NASA/Tracy Caldwell Dyson/WIkimediaCommons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most people, getting to the stars is nothing more than a dream. But on May 5, 2021, the 60th anniversary of the first suborbital flight, that dream became a little bit more achievable. </p>
<p>The space company Blue Origin announced that it would <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-auction-seat-space-tourism-flight-rcna828">start selling tickets for suborbital flights to the edge of space</a>. The first flight is scheduled for July 20, and Jeff Bezos’ company is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/science/blue-origin-space-jeff-bezos.html">auctioning off one single ticket to the highest bidder</a>. </p>
<p>But whoever places the winning bid won’t be the first tourist in space.</p>
<p>On April 28, 2001, Dennis Tito, a wealthy businessman, <a href="https://www.space.com/11492-space-tourism-pioneer-dennis-tito.html">paid US$20 million for a seat on a Russian Soyuz</a> spacecraft to be the first tourist to visit the International Space Station. Only <a href="https://spaceadventures.com/experiences/space-station/">seven civilians have followed suit</a> in the 20 years since, but that number is poised to double in the next 12 months alone.</p>
<p>NASA has long been <a href="http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=304">hesitant to play host to space tourists</a>, so Russia – looking for sources of money post-Cold War in the 1990s and 2000s – has been the only option available to those looking for this kind of extreme adventure. However, it seems the rise of private space companies is going to make it easier for regular people to experience space.</p>
<p>From my perspective as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">a space policy analyst</a>, recent announcements from companies like Blue Origin and SpaceX are the opening of an era in which more people can experience space. Hoping to build a future for humanity in space, these companies are seeking to use space tourism as a way to demonstrate both the safety and reliability of space travel to the general public.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three men floating in the International Space Station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dennis Tito, on the left beside two Russian astronauts, was the first private citizen to ever go to space – and he spent more than a week on the International Space Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ISS-02_Soyuz_TM-32_Taxi_crewmembers.jpg#/media/File:ISS-02_Soyuz_TM-32_Taxi_crewmembers.jpg">NASA/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The development of space tourism</h2>
<p>Flights to space like Dennis Tito’s are expensive for a reason. A rocket must burn a lot of costly fuel to travel high and fast enough to enter Earth’s orbit.</p>
<p>Another cheaper possibility is a suborbital launch, with the rocket going high enough to reach the edge of space and coming right back down. This is the kind of flight that Blue Origin is now offering. While passengers on a suborbital trip experience weightlessness and incredible views, these launches are more accessible.</p>
<p>The difficulty and expense of either option has meant that, traditionally, only nation-states have been able to explore space. This began to change in the 1990s as a series of entrepreneurs entered the space arena. Three companies led by billionaire CEOs have emerged as the major players: Blue Origin, SpaceX and Virgin Galactic. Though none have taken paying, private customers to space, all anticipate doing so in the very near future.</p>
<p>British billionaire Richard Branson has built his brand on not just business but also his love of adventure. In pursuing space tourism, Branson has brought both of those to bear. He established <a href="https://www.virgingalactic.com/">Virgin Galactic</a> after buying <a href="https://www.space.com/16769-spaceshipone-first-private-spacecraft.html">SpaceShipOne</a> – a company that won the <a href="https://www.xprize.org/prizes/ansari">Ansari X-Prize</a> by building the first reusable spaceship. Since then, Virgin Galactic has sought to design, build and fly a larger <a href="https://www.virgingalactic.com/learn/">SpaceShipTwo</a> that can carry up to six passengers in a suborbital flight.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A silvery ship that looks like a fighter plane with elongated tail fins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The VSS Unity spacecraft is one of the ships that Virgin Galactic plans to use for space tours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirginGalactic/c699fbc80ae44738a66a899dffd37b6a/photo?Query=virgin%20AND%20galactic&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=375&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Matt Hartman</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The going has been harder than anticipated. While Branson <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm">predicted opening the business</a> to tourists in 2009, Virgin Galactic has encountered some significant hurdles – including the death of a pilot in <a href="https://www.space.com/30073-virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-crash-pilot-error.html">a crash in 2014</a>. After the crash, engineers found significant problems with the design of the vehicle, which required modifications.</p>
<p>Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, respective leaders of SpaceX and Blue Origin, began their own ventures in the early 2000s.</p>
<p>Musk, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-mars-trip-2024">fearing that a catastrophe</a> of some sort could leave Earth uninhabitable, was frustrated at the lack of progress in making humanity a multiplanetary species. He founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of first developing reusable launch technology to decrease the cost of getting to space. Since then, SpaceX has found success with its <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/">Falcon 9</a> rocket and <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/dragon/">Dragon spacecraft</a>. SpaceX’s ultimate goal is human settlement of Mars; sending paying customers to space is an intermediate step. Musk says he hopes to show that space travel can be done easily and that tourism might provide a revenue stream to support development of the larger, Mars-focused Starship system.</p>
<p>Bezos, <a href="https://medium.com/@lynwerkledges/the-oneill-cylinder-jeff-bezos-vision-for-an-incredible-civilisation-in-space-fef75b499710">inspired by the vision of physicist Gerard O’Neill</a>, wants to expand humanity and industry not to Mars but to space itself. <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/">Blue Origin</a>, established in 2004, has proceeded slowly and quietly in also developing reusable rockets. Its <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/">New Shepard</a> rocket, first successfully flown in 2015, will be the spaceship taking tourists on suborbital trips to the edge of space <a href="https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/blue-origin-begin-space-tourism-ticket-sales-wednesday-2021-05-05/">this July</a>. For Bezos, <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/christian-davenport/the-space-barons/9781610398305/">these launches represent</a> an effort at making space travel routine, reliable and accessible as a first step to enabling further space exploration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large silvery rocket standing upright on a launchpad." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SpaceX has already started selling tickets to the public and has future plans to use its Starship rocket, a prototype of which is seen here, to send people to Mars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Starship_SN9_Evening_Rays.jpg#/media/File:Starship_SN9_Evening_Rays.jpg">Jared Krahn/WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Outlook for the future</h2>
<p>Blue Origin is not the only company offering passengers the opportunity to go into space and orbit the Earth. </p>
<p>SpaceX currently has two tourist launches planned. The first is <a href="https://spacenews.com/inspiration4-announces-crew-for-private-spacex-crew-dragon-mission/">scheduled for as early as September 2021</a>, funded by billionaire businessman Jared Isaacman. The other trip, planned for 2022, is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/axiom-space-unveils-ax-1-crew-for-fully-private-spacex-mission-to-iss.html">being organized by Axiom Space</a>. These trips <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/science/axiom-space-station.html">will be costly</a> for wannabe space travelers, at $55 million for the flight and a stay on the International Space Station. The high cost has led some to warn that <a href="https://spacenews.com/foust-forward-space-tourisms-image-problem/">space tourism</a> – and private access to space more broadly – might reinforce inequality between rich and poor.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white domed capsule with windows in the Texas desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first tourist to fly on a privately owned spaceship will ride in Blue Origin’s New Shepard Crew Capsule, seen here after a test flight in Texas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blue_Origin_M7.jpg">NASA Flight Opportunities/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While Blue Origin is already accepting bids for a seat on the first launch, it has not yet announced the cost of a ticket for future trips. Passengers will also need to meet several physical qualifications, including weighing 110 to 223 pounds (50 to 101 kg) and measuring between 5 feet and 6 feet, 4 inches (1.5 to 1.9 meters) in height. Virgin Galactic, which continues to test SpaceShipTwo, has no specific timetable, but its tickets are expected to be <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/26/space-tourism-how-spacex-virgin-galactic-blue-origin-axiom-compete.html">priced from $200,000 to $250,000</a>.</p>
<p>Though these prices are high, it is worth considering that Dennis Tito’s $20 million ticket in 2001 could potentially pay for 100 flights on Blue Origin soon. The experience of viewing the Earth from space, though, may prove to be priceless for a whole new generation of space explorers.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-tourism-20-years-in-the-making-is-finally-ready-for-launch-159606">article originally published</a> on April 28, 2021. It has been updated to include the announcement by Blue Origin.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Defense Department or any of its affiliates. </span></em></p>The first space tourist left Earth 20 years ago aboard a Russian rocket. Now, private companies like Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin are offering trips to the stars for those who can pay.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1596062021-04-28T12:15:09Z2021-04-28T12:15:09ZSpace tourism – 20 years in the making – is finally ready for launch<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397411/original/file-20210427-21-1cpclid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=414%2C176%2C6979%2C5759&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Space tourism has been slow to get off the ground. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/space-tourism-concept-a-young-male-asian-royalty-free-illustration/1300171457?adppopup=true">Nadia Bormotova/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most people, getting to the stars is nothing more than a dream. On April 28, 2001, Dennis Tito achieved that lifelong goal – but he wasn’t a typical astronaut. Tito, a wealthy businessman, <a href="https://www.space.com/11492-space-tourism-pioneer-dennis-tito.html">paid US$20 million for a seat on a Russian Soyuz</a> spacecraft to be the first tourist to visit the International Space Station. Only <a href="https://spaceadventures.com/experiences/space-station/">seven people have followed suit</a> in the 20 years since, but that number is poised to double in the next 12 months alone.</p>
<p>NASA has long been <a href="http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=304">hesitant to play host to space tourists</a>, so Russia – looking for sources of money post-Cold War in the 1990s and 2000s – has been the only option available for those looking for this kind of extreme adventure. However, it seems the rise of private space companies is going to make it easier for regular people to experience space.</p>
<p>From my perspective as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">a space policy analyst</a>, I see the beginning of an era in which more people can experience space. With companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin hoping to build a future for humanity in space, space tourism is a way to demonstrate both the safety and reliability of space travel to the general public.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three men floating in the International Space Station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dennis Tito, on the left beside two Russian astronauts, was the first private citizen to ever go to space – and he spent more than a week on the International Space Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ISS-02_Soyuz_TM-32_Taxi_crewmembers.jpg#/media/File:ISS-02_Soyuz_TM-32_Taxi_crewmembers.jpg">NASA/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The development of space tourism</h2>
<p>Flights to space like Dennis Tito’s are expensive for a reason. A rocket must burn a lot of costly fuel to travel high and fast enough to enter Earth’s orbit. </p>
<p>Another cheaper possibility is a suborbital launch, with the rocket going high enough to reach the edge of space and coming right back down. While passengers on a suborbital trip experience weightlessness and incredible views, these launches are more accessible.</p>
<p>The difficulty and expense of either option has meant that, traditionally, only nation-states have been able to explore space. This began to change in the 1990s as a series of entrepreneurs entered the space arena. Three companies led by billionaire CEOs have emerged as the major players: Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and SpaceX. Though none have taken paying, private customers to space, all anticipate doing so in the very near future.</p>
<p>British billionaire Richard Branson has built his brand on not just business but also his love of adventure. In pursuing space tourism, Branson has brought both of those to bear. He established <a href="https://www.virgingalactic.com/">Virgin Galactic</a> after buying <a href="https://www.space.com/16769-spaceshipone-first-private-spacecraft.html">SpaceShipOne</a> - a company that won the <a href="https://www.xprize.org/prizes/ansari">Ansari X-Prize</a> by building the first reusable spaceship. Since then, Virgin Galactic has sought to design, build and fly a larger <a href="https://www.virgingalactic.com/learn/">SpaceShipTwo</a> that can carry up to six passengers in a suborbital flight. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A silvery ship that looks like a fighter plane with elongated tail fins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The VSS Unity spacecraft is one of the ships that Virgin Galactic plans to use for space tours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirginGalactic/c699fbc80ae44738a66a899dffd37b6a/photo?Query=virgin%20AND%20galactic&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=375&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Matt Hartman</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The going has been harder than anticipated. While Branson <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm">predicted opening the business</a> to tourists in 2009, Virgin Galactic has encountered some significant hurdles – including the death of a pilot in <a href="https://www.space.com/30073-virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-crash-pilot-error.html">a crash in 2014</a>. After the crash, engineers found significant problems with the design of the vehicle, which required modifications.</p>
<p>Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, respective leaders of SpaceX and Blue Origin, began their own ventures in the early 2000s.</p>
<p>Musk, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-mars-trip-2024">fearing that a catastrophe</a> of some sort could leave Earth uninhabitable, was frustrated at the lack of progress in making humanity a multiplanetary species. He founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of first developing reusable launch technology to decrease the cost of getting to space. Since then, SpaceX has found success with its <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/">Falcon 9</a> rocket and <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/dragon/">Dragon</a> spacecraft. SpaceX’s ultimate goal is human settlement of Mars – sending paying customers to space is an intermediate step. Musk says he hopes to show that space travel can be done easily and that tourism might provide a revenue stream to support development of the larger, Mars-focused Starship system. </p>
<p>Bezos, <a href="https://medium.com/@lynwerkledges/the-oneill-cylinder-jeff-bezos-vision-for-an-incredible-civilisation-in-space-fef75b499710">inspired by the vision of physicist Gerard O’Neill</a>, wants to expand humanity and industry not to Mars, but to space itself. <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/">Blue Origin</a>, established in 2004, has proceeded slowly and quietly in also developing reusable rockets. Its <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/">New Shepard</a> rocket, first successfully flown in 2015, will eventually offer tourists a suborbital trip to the edge of space, similar to Virgin Galactic’s. For Bezos, <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/christian-davenport/the-space-barons/9781610398305/">these launches represent</a> an effort at making space travel routine, reliable and accessible to people as a first step to enabling further space exploration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large silvery rocket standing upright on a launchpad." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SpaceX has already started selling tickets to the public and has future plans to use its Starship rocket, a prototype of which is seen here, to send people to Mars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Starship_SN9_Evening_Rays.jpg#/media/File:Starship_SN9_Evening_Rays.jpg">Jared Krahn/WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Outlook for the future</h2>
<p>Now, SpaceX is the only option for someone looking to go into space and orbit the Earth. It currently has two tourist launches planned. The first is <a href="https://spacenews.com/inspiration4-announces-crew-for-private-spacex-crew-dragon-mission/">scheduled for as early as September 2021</a>, funded by billionaire businessman Jared Isaacman. The other trip, planned for 2022, is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/axiom-space-unveils-ax-1-crew-for-fully-private-spacex-mission-to-iss.html">being organized by Axiom Space</a>. These trips <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/science/axiom-space-station.html">will be costly</a>, at $55 million for the flight and a stay on the International Space Station. The high cost has led some to warn that <a href="https://spacenews.com/foust-forward-space-tourisms-image-problem/">space tourism</a> – and private access to space more broadly – might reinforce inequality between rich and poor.</p>
<p>Blue Origin’s and Virgin Galactic’s suborbital trips are far more reasonable in cost, with both <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/26/space-tourism-how-spacex-virgin-galactic-blue-origin-axiom-compete.html">priced between $200,000 and $250,000</a>. Blue Origin appears to be the nearest to allowing paying customers on board, <a href="https://spacenews.com/blue-origin-aces-dress-rehearsal-for-new-shepard-crewed-flights/">saying after a recent launch</a> that crewed missions would be happening “soon.” Virgin Galactic continues to test SpaceShipTwo, but no specific timetable has been announced for tourist flights.</p>
<p>Though these prices are high, it is worth considering that Dennis Tito’s $20 million ticket in 2001 could pay for 100 flights on Blue Origin soon. The experience of viewing the Earth from space, though, may prove to be priceless for a whole new generation of space explorers.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 104,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p><em>An updated version of this article was published on May 7, 2021. <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-tourism-is-here-20-years-after-the-first-stellar-tourist-jeff-bezos-blue-origin-plans-to-send-civilians-to-space-160510">Read it here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its affiliates.</span></em></p>The first space tourist left Earth 20 years ago aboard a Russian rocket. Now, private companies are on the cusp of offering trips off Earth for those who can pay.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1552652021-02-19T13:20:06Z2021-02-19T13:20:06ZSpace Force sounds like a joke thanks to pop culture – that could be a problem for an important military branch<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385111/original/file-20210218-19-tg9lx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C98%2C4939%2C3259&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With little else to draw from, people turn to science fiction when thinking about the Space Force. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/robot-royalty-free-illustration/97232241?adppopup=true">CSA Images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Space Force has a serious role to play in the modern world. Its stated mission is to train and equip personnel to defend U.S. interests in space. Given the increasing military and economic importance of space, the USSF is likely to grow in importance. </p>
<p>But a quick internet search shows that for most people, the Space Force is more a meme than a military branch. It has been the subject of jokes on “Saturday Night Live,” and Netflix was working on a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/16/steve-carrell-reportedly-to-get-millions-for-netflix-space-force.html">comedy show</a> before the service was officially formed. None other than Captain Kirk himself, actor William Shatner, has weighed in, arguing for the <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/commentary/2020/08/26/what-the-heck-is-wrong-with-you-space-force/">use of Navy ranks over Air Force ranks</a> in the Space Force – after all, he wasn’t Colonel Kirk. </p>
<p>Given this relationship between science fiction and the USSF, <a href="https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/polls-america-is-meh-about-space-force/">few people take it seriously</a>. Modern pop culture depictions of the Space Force as a joke are distracting from the serious responsibilities the USSF is taking on. I am a space policy analyst who has studied the <a href="https://spaceforcejournal.org/its-a-trap-the-pros-and-mostly-khans-of-science-fictions-influence-on-the-united-states-space-force/">USSF’s relationship with science fiction</a>, and my research shows this is creating a problem for the force.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The official seal of the U.S. Space Force" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385112/original/file-20210218-13-8qplbn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people have compared the U.S. Space Force seal to the insignia from Star Trek.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Space_Force#/media/File:Seal_of_the_United_States_Space_Force.svg">US Space Force</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sci-fi goes in, jokes come out</h2>
<p>There are two things to think about in the relationship between today’s pop culture and the Space Force: how existing sci-fi entertainment warps perceptions of the new military branch, and how those misconceptions lead to a comedic framing of the Space Force in culture today.</p>
<p>Science fiction has long had a strong influence on how people perceive space, and this has carried over to the Space Force. Social media and news coverage of Space Force often include references to “<a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a30677263/star-trek-space-force/">Star Trek</a>,” “<a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/new-space-force-uniforms-mocked-by-star-wars-fans/">Star Wars</a>,” “<a href="https://www.space.com/us-space-force-personnel-guardians">Guardians of the Galaxy</a>” and “<a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a35034184/space-force-guardians/">Starship Troopers</a>.” This isn’t surprising. People naturally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004355215177">use analogies to understand new concepts</a>; it’s easier to understand new phenomena in terms of something you already know. Because the Space Force is a new service, people are turning to what they already know about fighting in space. The problem is that science fiction is far from the reality of what missions in space look like today.</p>
<p>A lot of research has explored how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqx053">fiction can influence people’s thoughts and opinions</a>. One way this can happen is through something called a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592715003229">priming effect</a>, where exposure to an idea in one situation influences how people think about the same idea in an entirely different situation.</p>
<p>People can also become so cognitively and emotionally invested in a fictional story that it begins to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Psychology-of-Entertainment-Media-Blurring-the-Lines-Between-Entertainment/Shrum/p/book/9781138110601">subconsciously feel real</a> to them. When this happens, it’s much easier for the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqx053">fictional ideas to influence their thinking in the real world</a>.</p>
<p>The result of science fiction’s influence, then, is that people have absorbed incorrect ideas about the Space Force – for instance, that it has its own astronauts or is building military bases on the Moon – without questioning the accuracy of these ideas. This leads to the second aspect of USSF’s relationship to pop culture today: Online commentary, media coverage and entertainment have focused on humor at the expense of substantive discussion.</p>
<p>Jokes about <a href="https://www.space.com/us-space-force-personnel-guardians">“Guardians of the Galaxy”</a> or <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51160547">camouflage in space</a> abound on Twitter and create the impression that the Space Force is inconsequential. The Netflix show “Space Force” has also perpetuated myths that the Space Force is sending astronauts into combat on the Moon. And this joking extends to the highest levels of government, too – even the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/2/5/22268047/jen-psaki-space-force">White House has cracked jokes at the expense of Space Force</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An Atlas-V rocket lifting off the launch pad." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385113/original/file-20210218-26-1qku4rg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first mission to space under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Space Force, a communications satellite launch, was not a ‘Star Trek’-style adventure, but it was still important.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Space_Force#/media/File:Launch_of_Atlas_V_carrying_AEHF-6_(200326-F-KD758-1007).jpg">U.S. Air Force/Joshua Conti</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Problems and potential</h2>
<p>Despite the attention all this brings to the Space Force, if people are so deeply influenced by fiction that they find the USSF funny or absurd, it could lead to a disconnect between public expectations and what the Space Force is actually doing, and ultimately, reduce public support.</p>
<p>While missions like surveillance and tracking satellites and space debris may not be as interesting as stories from “Star Wars,” they are fundamental to the global economy and national security.</p>
<p>While the Space Force has fed these perceptions to an extent – for example, using the name <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a32466077/space-force-star-trek-kobayashi-maru/">Kobayashi Maru</a> from “Star Trek” for one of its software programs – there are ways in which science fiction can be helpful for the new military branch. Science fiction can be inspiring, as it was during the <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/681490/summary">space race of the 1960s</a> and is for <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/christian-davenport/the-space-barons/9781610398299/">space leaders today</a>. </p>
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<p>Modern pop culture interest in space can also be used to leverage interest in the Space Force. While it is not engaging in any “Star Trek” sort of exploration, its duties are important and inspiring nonetheless. Without the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/everyday-mysteries/item/what-is-gps-how-does-it-work/">GPS satellites</a> the Space Force is now in charge of, we wouldn’t be able to get money from an ATM, coordinate financial transactions or monitor such episodes as volcanoes or earthquakes.</p>
<p>The reality portrayed in “Star Trek” is hundreds of years in the future. While the Space Force might be an early step toward that reality; it is merely the first of many. As Gen. Mark Naird in the Netflix comedy series “Space Force” famously intones, “Space is hard.” Though not as glamorous as Hollywood, the hard work defending U.S. national interests in space is important.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Whitman Cobb is affiliated with the US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Her views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its components. </span></em></p>Science fiction has often had an inspirational and positive relationship with space endeavors. But the new US Space Force is struggling with a pop culture public relations problem.Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.