tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/asian-institute-of-technology-2751/articlesAsian Institute of Technology2017-04-28T06:22:02Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/756192017-04-28T06:22:02Z2017-04-28T06:22:02ZYes, climate change matters: international scientists appeal to Trump on his first 100 days<p>US President Donald Trump has called global warming a “<a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jun/03/hillary-clinton/yes-donald-trump-did-call-climate-change-chinese-h/">hoax</a>” perpetrated by the Chinese and appointed a <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/epa-chief-scott-pruitt.html">foe</a> of environmental regulations to head up America’s Environmental Protection Agency.</p>
<p>On April 22, which annually marks Earth Day, thousands of scientists around the globe <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/22/science/march-for-science.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0">marched</a> to defend the role of science, research and facts in society today against repeated <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/stephen-hawking-donald-trump_us_58d016cee4b00705db51828d">attacks</a> from the White House. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166552/original/file-20170424-25594-1yvskqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166552/original/file-20170424-25594-1yvskqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166552/original/file-20170424-25594-1yvskqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166552/original/file-20170424-25594-1yvskqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166552/original/file-20170424-25594-1yvskqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166552/original/file-20170424-25594-1yvskqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166552/original/file-20170424-25594-1yvskqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">New York’s March for Science drew an estimated 20,000 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephan Schmidt</span></span>
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<p>As the US president rounds the bend of his first 100 days, The Conversation Global has invited scientists from Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Europe to explain why climate change is real, and how it’s impacting life where they live.</p>
<h2>Maty Konte - Climate change is ‘not gender neutral’</h2>
<p>The UN goal of achieving inclusive and sustainable development across the world by 2030 will be <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/genderequalityandwomensempowerment">impossible without the participation of women</a> in developing nations, including in Africa. But empowering women will be impossible if we don’t do something to mitigate the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>Climate change hinders the empowerment of many poor women and girls from rural areas. First, women represent more than half the workers <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-myths-and-facts/publication/women-agriculture-and-work-in-africa">in the agricultural sector in Africa</a>, where insufficient infrastructure is exacerbated by the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Women also spend a considerable number of <a href="http://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2017/3/experts-take-subhalakshmi-nandi-unpaid-work">unpaid hours walking</a> long distances to bring firewood and clean water for drinking and bathing home on a daily basis. Climate change makes both water and firewood scarce, forcing these women and girls to trek further to reach the few areas where fresh water and wood can still be found.</p>
<p>On these vital journeys, they risk being <a href="http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/47a6ebaba.pdf">raped or kidnapped</a>; the longer the trip, the greater the risk.</p>
<p>Climate change thus also impacts girls’ education in rural regions of the developing world. Because girls must fetch household necessities before class in the morning, harder-to-find water and wood <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/education-plus-development/2016/09/20/is-climate-change-the-weakest-link-in-girls-education-programming/">increases school absenteeism</a>. That slows down their learning, as does the fatigue engendered by increasingly arduous morning and weekend routines, which makes it harder to concentrate on math and language lessons.</p>
<p>All of these impede the potential achievement of girls and women. School dropouts and loss of female human capital due to climate change consequences will have negative repercussions on <a href="http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/hdr/2016-africa-human-development-report.html">the economy and on the next generation</a>.</p>
<p>Climate change is not gender neutral. It reduces economic opportunities for the <a href="http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2012/women-vulnerable-climate-change.aspx">most vulnerable people in the world</a>, who are more often than not women and children.</p>
<p>Failing to act goes against women’s empowerment and is yet another handicap for all the efforts that have been put forward for inclusive development. </p>
<h2>Shobhakar Dhakal - Asia has hotter days and warmer nights</h2>
<p>Asia already alternates <a href="https://theconversation.com/droughts-and-floods-indias-water-crises-demand-more-than-grand-projects-60206">from one extreme to another</a>. Heatwave frequency has increased in many regions, as evidenced by <a href="https://theconversation.com/droughts-and-flooding-rains-climate-change-models-predict-increases-in-both-5470">droughts during the monsoon season</a>, but we’re also seeing <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">wetter conditions across Central Asia</a> and frequent flooding in eastern Asia and India.</p>
<p>Across Southeast Asia, temperatures have been increasing at a rate 0.14°C to 0.2°C per decade since the 1960s, coupled with a rising number of hot days and warm nights and a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2">decline</a> in cooler weather. Today, scientists are projecting temperature rises of 3°C to 6°C in Asia if no action is taken. </p>
<p>Seas are also projected to rise by 0.4m to 0.6m by the year 2100, while growing warmer <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1">and more acidic</a>.</p>
<p>All of this would be dangerous for the people who live in impacted areas. Due to projected sea-level rise and extreme climate events, millions of people along the coasts of South and Southeast Asia will likely be at risk from coastal and river flooding, with the potential for <a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/178615/sea-economics-global-climate-stabilization.pdf">widespread damage to human settlements</a>. We can also anticipate heat-related deaths and water and food shortages <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2">resulting from drought</a>. </p>
<p>Southeast Asia has begun responding to these threats <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2">to a certain extent</a>, developing early-warning systems for climatic events, reforesting mangrove forests, managing water resources better and protecting coasts from flooding.</p>
<p>This region is also <a href="http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/will-asean-nations-cope-climate-change-challenge/">actively cooperating to pursue</a> the ambitious renewable energy target set by the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>If the current US administration reverses Obama-era environmental efforts and pushes fossil fuels domestically, it will set Asia and the world on a dangerous, possibly irreversible path. It will also erode the credibility of the United States when it makes international commitments and damage much-needed American leadership in science and the environment. </p>
<p>Climate change is anthropogenic, and changes are already evident. Business as usual is a scientifically well-stated concern. We have a chance to keep global temperatures at under 2°C from pre-industrial levels <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-chair-hoesung-lee-we-can-meet-2-c-global-warming-target-if-we-act-fast-65418">if we act fast and stick together</a>. I sincerely hope the Trump administration will give this crisis more serious thought.</p>
<h2>Sandrine Maljean-Dubois - It’s a ‘race against the clock’</h2>
<p>The message from science is clear: we are in a race against the clock. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-enters-into-force-international-experts-respond-68124">adopting the Paris Agreement</a>, states around the world agreed on clear and ambitious targets to contain global warming and to limit global temperature increases. They outlined a trajectory of progressive decarbonisation of our societies by the end of the century. </p>
<p>It was the signal the markets were waiting for after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-deal">years of chaotic negotiations</a>. Businesses, banks, investment funds, local authorities, individuals – so many economic actors – are <a href="http://climateaction.unfccc.int">following world leaders down this path</a>. Pushed to innovation, they are advancing ahead of their competitors. They will create the technologies and jobs of tomorrow.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"729753441459945474"}"></div></p>
<p>The fact is, undoing Barack Obama’s 2015 <a href="https://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/clean-power-plan-existing-power-plants">Clean Power Plan</a>, as Trump <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/26/politics/pruitt-trump-clean-power-order/">has recently done</a> with the swipe of a pen, will produce only a limited environmental effect. Reactivating coal plants can be detrimental in the long run but coal is no longer competitive, so the move is impracticable and short-sighted.</p>
<p>But it sends a very negative signal to the world. The US is <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2.html">the world’s second-biggest producer</a> of greenhouse gasses, and it had previously exercised <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/us-china-joint-presidential-statement-climate-change">decisive leadership in the COP process</a> along with top-producer China. Considering the importance of American financial contributions to international bodies such as the secretariat of the <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/">UN climate action</a> branch, the <a href="http://www.greenclimate.fund/home">Green Climate Fund</a> and the <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/">Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, American disengagement threatens to undermine this fragile and too-timid dynamic. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166550/original/file-20170424-12640-5cntlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166550/original/file-20170424-12640-5cntlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166550/original/file-20170424-12640-5cntlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166550/original/file-20170424-12640-5cntlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166550/original/file-20170424-12640-5cntlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166550/original/file-20170424-12640-5cntlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166550/original/file-20170424-12640-5cntlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coal will sink this ship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephan Schmidt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The individual commitments of states are insufficient to achieve the objectives they have collectively set themselves. The Paris Agreement contains the tools needed to push countries to progressively up the ante on their national contributions, but without political will they will likely go unheeded. And it is precisely this that the US is now undermining.</p>
<p>For the American economy and for the world, for environmental, health and economic reasons, for present and future generations, we must immediately repudiate coal. History will frown on you for doing otherwise, President Trump!</p>
<h2>Joice Ferreira - Brazil alone cannot save the Amazon</h2>
<p>The Brazilian Amazon – the largest rainforest in the world and a region of national, regional and global importance – already faces an existential threat from raging wildfires and extreme flooding engendered by climate change. </p>
<p>Further global warming may push the forest’s biome beyond the point of no return. </p>
<p>Given the importance of the 6.9 million km² the Amazon for biodiversity and ecosystem services, that would bring unprecedented problems not just to Brazil or the Amazon region but the entire world. </p>
<p>In the last decade, the Amazon has experienced <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/amazon_climate_change.html&sa=D&ust=1492814332431000&usg=AFQjCNF_kqciTlwECEwduED2JVyzyhwuww">three intense droughts</a> (2005, 2010 and 2015), interspersed with <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-28123680&sa=D&ust=1492814332429000&usg=AFQjCNGiRC8Nk8SCP44QcgpLdnhSiKrAdA">extreme flooding</a> events. The droughts saw rivers run dry, killing <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://amazoniaextrema.webflow.io/en&sa=D&ust=1492814332429000&usg=AFQjCNEEFuY3eUl0L2W4pfkuZZ37ffwvAg">millions of fish</a> and isolating rural communities that rely on rivers to get around. </p>
<p>On land, huge tracts of forests burned as never before. In 2015 alone, fire ravaged some 9,500 km² – an area the size of the US state of Vermont. Millions of people suffered severe impacts from those events, as they saw their livelihoods and health endangered, crops ruined, transportation imperilled, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/12/photogalleries/101206-freshwater-amazon-drought-pictures/&sa=D&ust=1492814332430000&usg=AFQjCNFOLrmN_p-BkERhdqVD57KU5sb3_Q">hydropower disabled</a>. All this affects the wider general economy, of course. </p>
<p>Such changes can trigger cascading effects on the region. Droughts, for example, render the forest more vulnerable to fire; lack of rainfall also leads to a massive loss of carbon absorption capacity due to reduced plant growth and tree death. After the 2005 drought, for example, about <a href="https://phys.org/news/2011-02-severe-amazon-droughts-years-alarms.html">five billion extra tonnes of carbon dioxide</a> were emitted into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>The end of the seasonal monsoon rains that the Amazon generates across the region would spell disaster for South American breadbaskets such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/reshaping-nafta-could-be-good-for-mexicos-economy-and-brazils-and-argentinas-too-76204">Argentina and Brazil</a>. </p>
<p>Brazil cannot deal with this global threat alone. We need strong action from developed countries in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from the United States. </p>
<p>Governments must take immediate measures to avoid further degradation of this delicate, critical biome. If the US reneges on its leadership and refuses to enforce environmental regulations and international agreements to curb climate change, the world will pay the price.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joice Ferreira works for the Brazilian government research organisation, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shobhakar Dhakal has closely worked with many international scientific communities (IPCC, Future Earth, Global Carbon Project, Global Energy Assessment, Urban Climate Change Research Network and others), and to some extent with the policy communities. He has received funding for research and capacity building activities from many organizations in the past but all of his activities are on scholarly domain.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maty Konte and Sandrine Maljean-Dubois do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scientists from Africa, Asia, Latin America and Europe take on the White House with facts from the ground they stand on.Maty Konte, Research Economist, United Nations UniversityJoice Ferreira, Researcher in Ecology, Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA)Sandrine Maljean-Dubois, Directrice de recherche CNRS au Centre d’études et de recherches internationales et communautaires (CERIC), Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Shobhakar Dhakal, Associate Professor, Asian Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/674992016-12-01T07:29:07Z2016-12-01T07:29:07ZWe can cut emissions in half by 2040 if we build smarter cities<p>As a planet, we have some serious climate targets to meet in the coming years. The <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a>, signed by 192 countries, set an aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5ᵒC. The <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300">United Nations Sustainable Development Goals</a>, set to be achieved by 2030, commit the world to “<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg13">take urgent action</a>” on climate change.</p>
<p>All this will require ridding our economies of carbon. If we’re to do so, we need to completely rethink our cities.</p>
<p>The UN’s peak climate body showed in its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/">most recent report</a> that cities are crucial to preventing drastic climate change. Already, cities contribute <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/sbsta40/140610_urban_environment_Christ.pdf">71% to 76% to energy-related carbon emissions</a>. </p>
<p>In the Global South, energy consumption and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">emissions in urban areas tend to be way higher than those in rural areas</a>. Future population growth is expected to take place <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">almost entirely in cities and smaller urban settlements</a>. Unfortunately, those smaller centres generally lack the capacity to properly address climate change. </p>
<p>China’s “<a href="http://www.bjreview.com.cn/quotes/txt/2015-08/21/content_631043.htm">New-type Urbanisation Policy</a>” aims to raise its city populations from 54.2% in 2012 to 60% in 2020. This will mean building large urban infrastructure projects, and investing trillions of dollars into new developments. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/india-needs-250-b-investment-for-urban-infrastructure-venkaiah/article6478338.ece">India’s sheer volume of urbanisation and infrastructure needs are phenomenal</a>. </p>
<h2>The problem with infrastructure</h2>
<p>Infrastructure contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in two ways: through construction (for example, the energy footprints of cement, steel and aluminium used in the building process) and through the things that go on to use that infrastructure (for example, cars or trains using new roads or tracks). </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nclimate3169">recent study</a>, my colleagues and I have shown that the design of today’s transportation systems, buildings and other infrastructure will largely determine tomorrow’s CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.</p>
<p>But by building climate-smart urban infrastructure and buildings, we could cut future emissions in half from 2040 onwards. We could reduce future emissions by ten gigatonnes per year: almost the same quantity currently being emitted by the United States, Europe and India <a href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2016/">put together (11 gigatonnes)</a>. </p>
<p>We assessed cities’ potential to reduce emissions on the basis of three criteria: the emissions savings following upgrades to existing infrastructure; emissions savings from using new, energy-efficient infrastructure; and the additional emissions generated by construction. </p>
<p>In established cities, we found that considerable progress can be made through refurbishment of existing infrastructure. But the highest potential is offered by construction of new, energy-efficient projects from the beginning. </p>
<p>The annual reductions that could be achieved by 2040 by using new infrastructure is three to four times higher than that of upgrading existing roads or buildings. </p>
<p>With this in mind, governments worldwide must guide cities towards low-carbon infrastructure development and green investment. </p>
<h2>Urbanisation is about more than megacities</h2>
<p>Significant opportunities exist to promote <a href="http://news.berkeley.edu/2014/01/06/suburban-sprawl-cancels-carbon-footprint-savings-of-dense-urban-cores/">high-density living</a>, build urban set-ups that mix residential, work and leisure in single spaces, and create better connectivity within and between cities. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">existing window of opportunity</a> to act is narrowing over time, as the <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Archive/Files/studies/United%20Nations%20(2001)%20-%20The%20Components%20of%20Urban%20Growth%20in%20Developing%20Countries.pdf">Global South develops rapidly</a>. It should not be missed. </p>
<p>Besides global megacities such as Shanghai and Mumbai, smaller cities must also be a focus for lowering emissions. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">Studies</a> have shown a paradox for these places: the capacity for governance and finance are lower in the smaller cities, despite the fact that the majority of future urban populations will grow there, and they will expand quicker than their larger cousins. </p>
<p>We must give up on our obsession with megacities. Without building proper capacity in mid- and small-sized cities to address climate solutions, we cannot meet our climate goals. </p>
<p>Perhaps most important is raising the level of ambition in the existing climate policies in cities of all sizes, making them far-reaching, inclusive and robust. Despite the rhetoric, the scale of real change on ground from existing cities climate actions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-chair-hoesung-lee-we-can-meet-2-c-global-warming-target-if-we-act-fast-65418">unproven and unclear</a>. </p>
<p>Existing cities’ climate mitigation plans and policies, such as in Tokyo, London, Bangkok, and activities promoted by networks such as <a href="http://www.iclei.org/">ICLEI</a>, <a href="http://www.c40.org/">C40</a>, <a href="http://www.covenantofmayors.eu/index_en.html">Covenant of Mayors for Energy and Environment</a> are a good start; they must be appreciated but further strengthened. </p>
<p>But, to further support these good ideas, the world urgently needs support measures for urban mitigation from local to global levels together with a tracking framework and agreed set of indicators for measuring the extent of progress towards low-carbon future. </p>
<p>Only if we start with cities, big and small, will we manage to limit warming to 1.5°C.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shobhakar Dhakal has closely worked with many international scientific communities (IPCC, Future Earth, Global Carbon Project, Global Energy Assessment, Urban Climate Change Research Network and others), and to some extent with the policy communities. He has received funding for research and capacity building activities from many organizations in the past but all of his activities are on scholarly domain. </span></em></p>Future population growth is expected to take place almost entirely in cities. We won’t fight climate change without them.Shobhakar Dhakal, Associate Professor, Asian Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/654182016-09-26T06:47:47Z2016-09-26T06:47:47ZIPCC chair Hoesung Lee: we can meet 2°C global warming target if we act fast<p>Hoesung Lee was elected chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change just one month before the landmark Paris climate talks of 2015. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">agreement</a> that emerged from that meeting committed the world’s governments to keeping global warming below 2°C, with an aspiration of a 1.5°C temperature limit. </p>
<p>As the race accelerates for individual countries to ratify the Paris agreement, and hence bring it into effect, Lee and the IPCC have been charged with <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">assessing the science</a> behind the 1.5°C goal. </p>
<p>At this crucial point for climate action worldwide, we asked eight scholars from around the world – some of them previous IPCC authors – to put their questions to the world’s most important climate expert. </p>
<p>In a wide-ranging conversation, Lee talks about how to get more scientists from the Global South involved in the work of the IPCC, what we do and don’t know about climate change, and how the world can meet its ambitious warming targets.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Sandrine Maljean-Dubois, Université Aix-Marseille:</strong> <em>The objective of the Paris Agreement was to keep global temperature to “well below 2°C”. Is this still attainable? And what about limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C?</em></p>
<p>Yes, 2°C is still attainable, if the world acts fast. The IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/">last comprehensive assessment</a> established a carbon budget for 2ºC and higher ranges. It also found that to have a two in three chance of holding warming to 2ºC, it would be necessary to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf">reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40-70%</a> by 2050 compared to 2010, and to net zero by the end of the century. </p>
<p>The longer this is delayed, the harder and costlier it will be to achieve.</p>
<p>Governments have now set an aspirational target of <a href="https://theconversation.com/turning-up-the-heat-how-the-diplomatic-push-for-1-5-unfolded-in-paris-52465">holding warming to 1.5ºC</a>. That is why they asked the Climate Panel to prepare a report on the impacts of 1.5ºC warming and related emissions pathways to take us there. We have started the preparations, and the report will be delivered in 2018.</p>
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<p><strong>Ina Islam, Independent University of Bangladesh:</strong> <em>What measures would you recommend governments and relevant institutions take to allow women to play their critical role in meeting the many challenges associated with climate change?</em></p>
<p>The vulnerable are often the most exposed to climate change and, in many societies, women are among the vulnerable groups. </p>
<p>The IPCC found in its <a href="http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf">special report</a> on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation that social, economic and environmental sustainability can be enhanced by disaster risk management and adaptation approaches. </p>
<p>A prerequisite for sustainability in the context of climate change is addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability, including the structural inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain access to resources.</p>
<p>But I should make it clear that the IPCC doesn’t make recommendations. What we do is assess the scientific literature relevant to climate change to inform policymakers about the state of knowledge on these issues. That might include laying out policy options arising from the literature, but we wouldn’t make our own recommendations.</p>
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<p><strong>Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University:</strong> <em>National leaders in Paris committed to keeping emissions to below 2°C to reduce the vulnerability of their citizens, but many were also vocal about expanding economic activities to keep those same people employed, and with higher standards of living. What gives you hope that economic growth ambitions, higher standards of living, and climate stabilisation can all be delivered?</em></p>
<p>Our last assessment report found that the integration of adaptation and mitigation into planning and decision-making can create synergies with sustainable development. </p>
<p>Article two of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf">Paris agreement</a> aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.</p>
<p>We know that climate change responses can reinforce development, for instance through co-benefits – the additional advantages that come with actions to control climate change. To put co-benefits into perspective, a recent <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25013/108141.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y">World Bank study</a> found that air pollution deaths cost the global economy US$5 trillion annually, with 5.5 million lives lost to related diseases in 2013.</p>
<p>In our last report, the IPCC started to get a sense of the economics of the response to climate change. But it would be misleading simply to contrast a supposed “business as usual” involving continuing growth for years with the costs of ambitious mitigation. </p>
<p>Business will be far from usual in a world of four, five or six degrees of warming. It is hard to envisage such a world, and the related costs. But a decarbonised economy will provide new jobs and opportunities as green technology develops. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, renewable energy excluding large hydropower now employs <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Jobs_Annual_Review_2016.pdf">8.1 million people</a>, up 5% from a year ago.</p>
<p>So one of the key tasks for our next assessment will be to understand not only the costs of responding to climate change, but the benefits of new opportunities and the costs of inaction and ignored opportunities.</p>
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<p><strong>Chukwumerije Okereke, University of Reading:</strong> <em>Many in developing countries, especially those in rural communities, have complained that they do not get sufficient information about the IPCC’s assessments and the implications for their livelihood. Does the chair have any concrete plans to make the output of IPCC assessments more widely available to the world’s poor?</em></p>
<p>This is a very important question. One of the best ways we can tackle it is by getting scientists from developing countries more closely involved in our work. We are looking at various ways to enhance the participation of developing countries in the work of the IPCC.</p>
<p>We also have an <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/outreach.shtml">outreach programme</a> where we bring authors from the IPCC to different countries to present our findings, and work with policymakers, scientists and other local stakeholders. The emphasis is on developing countries, and we have covered most regions in the world. We hope to get to West Africa next year.</p>
<p>But there are limits to what we can do with our own very limited resources. We therefore rely on third parties to act as multipliers, spreading information about the IPCC. We are looking at ways of working with some of those people who produce reports based on our assessments that target particular audiences in different countries, to help ensure their accuracy.</p>
<p>We would greatly welcome advice and suggestions on how we can reach more people in developing countries.</p>
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<p><strong>Shobhakar Dhakal, Asian Institute of Technology:</strong> <em>Science is loud and clear on global climate change. Yet our knowledge of risks and solutions of climate change at the local level – in the cities, regions and nations where actions must take place – are weak. How can a global organisation such as the IPCC address locally relevant climate change science and action?</em></p>
<p>You’ve raised an issue we are well aware of at the IPCC. Governments want the panel to pay special attention to regional questions in our next assessment. After all, local impacts are most relevant to policy makers. We will do so, but exactly how will be determined when the panel scopes the outlines and structure of the report early next year.</p>
<p>With <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">more than half the world’s population</a> living in urban areas, we know that cities offer particular challenges and opportunities for mitigation and adaptation. In our last comprehensive assessment, we introduced dedicated chapters on <a href="http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap8_FINAL.pdf">urban areas</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf">human settlements</a>, but we can increase this focus.</p>
<p>So in the assessment cycle starting in 2023, the panel will produce a special report on climate change and cities. To encourage research on this topic, we have <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/apps/eventmanager/documents/40/210920160851-Doc.9-WorkshopCities.pdf">proposed</a> to co-sponsor an international conference on climate change and cities in 2018. We will also pay special attention to this topic in our next assessment.</p>
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<p><strong>Michel Damian, Université Grenoble Alpes:</strong> <em>In 2015, <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/350/6264/1007.full">you wrote</a>: “The focus on solutions will be a major component of my tenure at the IPCC”. Does this focus on “solutions” represent a major reorientation of the work of the IPCC?</em></p>
<p>It’s a change in emphasis rather than a major reorientation. The IPCC has always looked at solutions – our <a href="http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/">Working Group II</a> considers adaptation, and <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/">Working Group III</a> is devoted to the mitigation of climate change. </p>
<p>There is plenty more to learn about climate science, especially impacts at the regional level. But with our last comprehensive assessment, the basic facts of climate change are now well understood. The Paris agreement drew on the findings of that report. </p>
<p>With the agreement now in place, it’s natural that policymakers turn to implementation, hence an increased interest in solutions. For that reason, the panel will be turning increasingly to social science, political science, economics and similar disciplines in our next assessment.</p>
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<p><strong>Angelina Davydova, St Petersburg State University:</strong> <em>How can we attract more scientists from the Global South to work with the IPCC on further Assessment Reports?</em></p>
<p>This is a priority for us, and we are looking at different ways to facilitate this. One thing we already do is when we hold an outreach activity in a country, we always include a session with young scientists, where IPCC authors and the scientific leadership explain to them what is involved in working as an author on an assessment.</p>
<p>Another step we have just taken is to develop a <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/apps/eventmanager/documents/37/170320160515-Doc.13_LibraryFacility.pdf">library facility</a> with the help of UN Environment, to give our authors access to the relevant scientific literature.</p>
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<p><strong>Joice Ferreira, Federal University of Pará:</strong> <em>The Amazon rainforest is facing alarming threats from deforestation and climate change. As an ecologist working in the Brazilian Amazon, I would like to know where you think the scientific community needs to most urgently prioritise its efforts to strengthen understanding of the critical role that this, and other major <a href="http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/glossary/gloss5/biome/">biomes</a> play in shaping the Earth’s future climate?</em></p>
<p>There were a number of research and knowledge gaps identified in our last report. The incorporation of interactive components of the carbon cycle – including terrestrial and oceanic sources and sinks – into analyses and models is a growing need.</p>
<p>The fifth assessment report also identified a substantial gap in the literature on how climate change may affect the food system beyond production, such as food availability, quality, and food stability. Indeed, we have learned more (and with greater confidence) about the impact of climate changes on food production – crop yields, fisheries and livestock – but we know comparatively little about how climate change will affect the post-harvest stages. Since global food production is the result of hundreds of millions of farming households responding to diverse economic incentives, estimating the long-run implications remains difficult, but critical to identifying potential policy interventions.</p>
<p>Increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change will involve increasingly complex interactions, particularly at the intersection of water, energy, land use and biodiversity. But tools to understand and manage these interactions remain limited. Though there has been an increased focus on policies to integrate multiple objectives, increase co-benefits and reduce adverse side effects, the analytical and empirical underpinnings of many of the interactive effects are under-developed.</p>
<p>Regional aspects are very important, especially for extreme events, yet some major data gaps in observations have been identified in Africa, South America and Asia, as well as for complex topographies and major river basins. The overall perspective from the <a href="http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/">latest adaptation report</a> is that producing the required regional climate information for those who need it is still an ambitious target. Until we produce scale-relevant information to inform decisions, science will have minimal immediate value to society.</p>
<p>Ecologists and economists need to collaborate closely to improve data and methodology for estimating the economic value of ecosystem services. This will help improve our understanding of climate damage and facilitate investment for sustainable development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sandrine Maljean-Dubois has received funding from the National Research Agency. She is a member of the French Society for Environmental Law and Ecolo-Ethik.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angelina Davydova is the director of the NGO, German-Russian Office of Environmental Information. She also works with German-Russian Exchange, Bellona, and n-ost. She does contract work for the German Development Agency (GIZ). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chukwumerije Okereke has received funding from the United Nations Development Programme, the Leverhumle Trust, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network and the UK Department for International Development. He was lead author of AR5 WGIII Chapter 4 on sustainable development and equity for the IPCC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joice Ferreira is a senior researcher with the Brazilian Agricultural Research Agency. Her research has been developed mainly with funds from The Brazilian Agricultural Research Agency, The Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development and The Natural Environment Research Council, UK.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joyashree Roy has received funding from the Asia Pacific Network, South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics, the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, the Indian Ministry of Environment and Forests, the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the University Grants Commission Government of India, the Indian Council of Social Science and Research, IIASA Global Energy Assessment, the Indo-US Science Technology Forum, CICERO, the Indo-German-Dutch Government Collaboration Fund for Network Building, the State Pollution Control Board and the University of California, Berkeley. She was one of the two Coordinating Lead Authors of the Industry chapter of the IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shobhakar Dhakal is a visiting researcher for National Institute for Environment Studies Japan. He was IPCC Coordinating Lead Authors in 5th Assessment Report, which was a voluntary contribution.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ina Islam and Michel Damian do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lee: ‘Business will be far from usual in a world of four, five or six degrees of warming.’Sandrine Maljean-Dubois, Directrice de recherche CNRS au Centre d’études et de recherches internationales et communautaires (CERIC), Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Angelina Davydova, Senior Lecturer, St Petersburg State UniversityChukwumerije Okereke, Associate Professor of Environment and Development, University of ReadingIna Islam, Deputy Director, Independent University, BangladeshJoice Ferreira, Researcher in Ecology, Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA)Joyashree Roy, Professor of Economics, Sylff-JU Project Director, Coordinator Global Change Programme-JU, Jadavpur UniversityMichel Damian, Professeur émérite, Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)Shobhakar Dhakal, Associate Professor, Asian Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.