tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/benedict-college-1613/articlesBenedict College2023-12-13T10:44:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191052023-12-13T10:44:30Z2023-12-13T10:44:30ZMadagacar : la réélection d'Andry Rajoelina ouvre une nouvelle phase politique<p>La réélection d'Andry Rajoelina à la présidence de Madagascar a été confirmée par la <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2023/12/01/a-madagascar-la-reelection-andry-rajoelina-confirmee_6203341_3212.html*">Haute cour constitutionnelle</a>. Ainsi, Andry Rajoelina a obtenu 58.96 % des suffrages exprimés, contre 14,39 % pour Siteny Randrianasoloniako et 12,09 % pour Marc Ravalomanana. En fait, on pourrait aussi dire que <a href="https://theconversation.com/madagascar-une-election-presidentielle-a-haut-risque-216327">cette élection a été jouée d'avance</a> du moment que la grande majorité des candidats (10 sur 13), y compris le concurrent qui aurait le plus de chance de gagner, c'est-à-dire Marc Ravalomanana, ont décidé finalement de ne pas y participer, laissant ainsi le champ tout à fait libre à Andry Rajoelina. </p>
<p>Le président sortant est ainsi réélu dès le premier tour, malgré un taux de participation de 46,35 % plutôt bas à cause du boycott par les dix candidats de l’opposition. </p>
<p>J'ai étudié la politique malgache pendant plusieurs années, en me focalisant sur le processus de démocratisation, les conflits et transitions politiques. Cet article analyse les résultats de l'élection, le taux de participation, les contestations de l'opposition et examine les perspectives post-électorales dans un contexte de polarisation politique.</p>
<h2>Un faible taux de participation</h2>
<p>La violence électorale, tant redoutée par de nombreux acteurs politiques et observateurs quelques jours avant l’élection n’a pas eu lieu finalement. Tout au contraire, l’élection s’est déroulée dans le calme le plus absolu. Cette crainte de la violence aurait justifié la <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2023/11/13/election-a-madagascar-la-presidente-de-l-assemblee-nationale-fait-appel-a-la-sadc-pour-sortir-de-la-crise_6199925_3212.html">tenue d’urgence d’une “négociation” </a>sous la houlette de la présidente de l’Assemblée nationale, Christine Razanamahasoa et du Conseil œcuménique des églises chrétiennes (FFKM).</p>
<p>Les dix candidats membres du collectif <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2023/11/16/a-madagascar-jour-de-vote-sous-tension-pour-l-election-presidentielle_6200527_3212.html">se sont opposés</a> à cette élection. ils avaient en outre donné la consigne à leurs partisans de ne pas voter. Par conséquent, il y avait très peu de monde dans les rues, surtout dans la capitale, et aux alentours des bureaux de vote le jour de l’élection. </p>
<p>Dès lors, le faible taux de participation est descendu jusqu’à 31,65% dans la capitale et ses environs. Il est devenu le plus important sujet de conversation aussi bien pour l'opposition que pour les observateurs nationaux et internationaux. Par contre, on a noté l’enthousiasme des électeurs dans les régions périphériques, comme à Toliara où le taux de participation a atteint 62,03 %, ou comme à Fianarantsoa, 55,06 %. </p>
<p>De plus, il faut rappeler que le taux de participation du premier tour de l’élection présidentielle en 2018 était de 53,95 %. Au second tour, qui avait marqué la victoire d'Andry Rajoelina, il n'avait atteint que de 48,09 %. Ainsi, le taux de participation <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2023/12/01/a-madagascar-la-reelection-andry-rajoelina-confirmee_6203341_3212.html">de 46,35 % selon les résultats définitifs</a> de l’élection du 16 novembre 2023 n’a rien de catastrophique. </p>
<p>Au lendemain du scrutin, malgré les conditions calmes du vote et ce taux de participation officiel plutôt correct, l'Organisation internationale de la francophonie (OIF)<a href="https://www.francophonie.org/elections-presidentielles-madagascar-loif-prend-acte-des-resultats-provisoires-3008">a pris une position forte en conseillant aux acteurs malgaches de privilégier la discussion et le dialogue</a>. Elle les a ainsi invités “à privilégier la concertation et le dialogue en vue de créer les conditions d’un retour à une vie politique plus apaisée, gage de la préservation de la paix, de la stabilité et du développement intégral et durable de Madagascar”.</p>
<h2>Une victoire contestée</h2>
<p>D’ores et déjà, les membres du Collectif de candidats ont déclaré qu’ils rejetaient ces résultats en bloc et qu’ils considèrent que “cette élection n’a même pas eu lieu”, selon les mots de leur porte-parole et président du parti Malagasy Miara Miainga (MMM), Hajo Andrianainarivelo. Ils réclament l'organisation d'une nouvelle élection. </p>
<p>Transparency International – Initiative Madagascar <a href="https://www.transparency.mg/communiques-de-presse/presidentielles-2023-le-triomphe-de-la-corruption-de-largent-et-de-la-complaisance-sur-la-democratie/">a accusé la communauté internationale d’être complaisante envers Andry Rajoelina</a>. Elle a cependant noté que les observateurs internationaux seraient “unanimes” en affirmant que l’élection présidentielle du 16 novembre à Madagascar s’était déroulée “sans incident majeur”. </p>
<p>L'ONG souligne aussi la position générale de la communauté internationale qu'elle considère inquiétante, selon laquelle “les quelques manquements et imperfections constatés çà et là ne peuvent remettre en cause de façon globale le bon déroulement et la crédibilité de cette élection”. </p>
<p>Ceci laisse déjà présager que la communauté internationale, dans son ensemble, ne va pas s’opposer à l’investiture d’Andry Rajoelina en tant que nouveau président se succédant à lui-même. En effet, les félicitations de la part des grandes puissances telles que les États-Unis, la Chine et l'Inde n'ont cessé de parvenir à Antananarivo dès la proclamation des résultats officiels. </p>
<p>De son côté, sans qu'il soit encore investi officiellement de ses fonctions, Andry Rajoelina s'est déjà permis de faire le déplacement à Dubai pour assister à la COP 28. Il a reçu les félicitations de ses pairs africains et arabes dont les présidents des Comores, Azali Assoumani, du Sénégal, Maki Sall, du Congo, Denis Sassou Nguesso, et des Seychelles, Wavel Ramkalawan. Cependant, la France est curieusement restée muette jusqu'à maintenant. Paris se garde bien de féliciter ou de rejeter <a href="https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/madagascar-la-nationalite-francaise-presumee-du-president-andry-rajoelina-provoque-une">le “Français” Andry Rajoelina</a>!</p>
<p>L'après-élection s'annonce donc positif pour Andry Rajoelina sur le plan international. Mais au niveau national, des combats acharnés avec l'opposition se profilent déjà à l'horizon. En effet, au cours de son premier mandat, Andry Rajoelina (2018-2023) a déjà fait face à des attaques de la part de l'opposition, et en particulier de Marc Ravalomanana lui-même, visant à renverser son pouvoir. </p>
<p>Des associations regroupant tous les opposants ont été créées et des slogans (voire “cris de guerre”) ont été lancés. Quelques mois seulement après son investiture en janvier 2019, Andry Rajoelina devait ainsi affronter un “rodoben'ny mpanohitra” (<a href="https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20220723-%C3%A0-madagascar-les-forces-de-l-ordre-emp%C3%AAchent-un-rassemblement-de-l-opposition">rassemblement de tous les opposants</a>), ensuite une opération <a href="https://www.madagascar-tribune.com/Affaire-Appollo-21-Des-hauts-politiciens-impliques-selon-Andry-Rajoelina.html">“Appolo 21” (une tentative d'assassinat qui impliquait des hauts responsables de son gouvernment et des ressortissants Francais)</a>, et finalement une plateforme dénommée “<a href="https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20230202-madagascar-la-plateforme-d-opposition-c-lera-f%C3%A9d%C3%A9r%C3%A9e-par-le-rejet-du-pouvoir-avant-la-pr%C3%A9sidentielle-2023">Lera</a>” (“l'heure de renverser Andry Rajoelina est venue”). Cependant, l'une après l'autre, ces attaques ont échoué. Et au début de cette année, l'opposition n'avait plus le choix que d'affronter Andry Rajoelina dans une élection présidentielle pour tenter de le bouter hors du pouvoir. </p>
<h2>Une nouvelle phase politique</h2>
<p>Toutefois, au lieu de jouer le jeu et accepter ses règles, biaisées ou non (ce qui est encore discutable), l'opposition a misé sur la disqualification d'Andry Rajoelina lui-même et le contrôle des institutions avant l'élection et elle a perdu. </p>
<p>Aujourd'hui, malgré sa défaite électorale, l'opposition ne s'avoue pas encore vaincue. Une “cellule de crise” pour continuer la lutte est déjà mise sur pied. Les réunions et déclarations se succèdent.</p>
<p>En définitive, l'élection présidentielle de 2023 a commencé avec des batailles juridiques, politiques, et même physiques dans les rues d'Antananarivo. Elle s'est terminée dans un calme relatif avec la victoire d'Andry Rajoelina au premier tour. La question est maintenant de savoir si Andry Rajoelina parviendra à se maintenir au pouvoir pour son second mandat, ou bien si l'opposition réussira cette fois-ci à le renverser. C'est en effet comme si “les alternances, à Madadagascar, devaient toujours se faire en dehors des cadres constitutionnels”, pour <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2023/10/16/a-madagascar-toutes-les-alternances-se-sont-faites-en-dehors-des-regles_6194827_3212.html">paraphraser un collègue</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrien Ratsimbaharison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>La victoire d'Andry Rajoelina ouvre une nouvelle phase politique. Les défis persistants et les perspectives incertaines nécessitent la restauration de la confiance entre les acteurs.Adrien Ratsimbaharison, Professor of Political Science, Benedict CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166482023-11-12T10:58:35Z2023-11-12T10:58:35ZÉlection présidentielle de Madagascar : comprendre les stratégies et risques pris par les candidats<p>Initialement prévue le 9 novembre 2023, l’élection présidentielle à Madagascar a été <a href="https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/madagascar-lelection-presidentielle-est-reportee-dune-semaine-2671181">reportée au 16 novembre</a> à cause d’une blessure qui a handicapé l'un des candidats. Treize candidats sont en lice, dont le président sortant, Andry Rajoelina, qui a dû démissionner conformément aux dispositions de la Constitution.</p>
<p>Onze (mais finalement dix) d'entre eux, regroupés sous le nom de “Collectif des candidats”, contestent le déroulement du processus électoral. Ils exigent la disqualification d'Andry Rajoelina en tant que candidat en raison de sa <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2023/06/15/madagascar-le-president-rajoelina-est-bien-francais_6177722_3212.html">nationalité française qui aurait entraîné la perte de sa nationalité malgache</a>. Ils exigent aussi le remaniement (sinon le remplacement) de l'actuelle Commission électorale nationale indépendante (Ceni), de la Haute cour constitutionnelle (HCC) et du gouvernement collégial dirigé par le Premier ministre Christian Ntsay. Ils sont en effet convaincus que ces institutions sont biaisées et soutiennent officieusement la candidature de Rajoelina. </p>
<p>Enfin et surtout, ils demandent une négociation (une “discussion sur table ronde”, comme ils disent) pour résoudre le conflit et répondre à leurs demandes. Pour le moment, la Fédération des églises chrétiennes (FFKM) et la présidente de l'Assemblée nationale, Christine Razanamahasoa, essayent d'offrir en vain leur médiation.</p>
<p>Je suis un enseignant-chercheur en science politique. J'ai étudié la politique malgache pendant plusieurs années, en me focalisant sur <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RLyAnTAAAAAJ&hl=en">le processus de démocratisation, les conflits et transitions politiques</a>. Je pense que cette élection présidentielle est cruciale pour l'avenir du pays, et il convient d'analyser les stratégies et les risques pris par chacun des candidats.</p>
<h2>Les revendications de l'opposition</h2>
<p>L'analyse des revendications du “Collectif des dix candidats” suggère qu'il est impossible de les satisfaire compte tenu du contexte actuel. D'une part, forcer Andry Rajoelina à participer à une négociation qui pourrait aboutir à sa propre disqualification en tant que candidat est tout à fait inconcevable. D'ailleurs, il a été révélé dernièrement qu'au moins deux autres candidats ont aussi une double nationalité franco-malgache : <a href="https://www.madagascar-tribune.com/Jean-Jacques-Ratsietison-interpelle-a-ete-libere.html">Jean Jacques Ratsietison</a> et Sendrison Raderanirina.</p>
<p>Deuxièmement, l’actuel gouvernement collégial, la Ceni et la HCC n’accepteront jamais de cautionner une telle négociation, ni de se dissoudre et de céder le pouvoir à un nouveau gouvernement de consensus, à de nouvelles Ceni et HCC rebaptisée <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20130813-madagascar-nouvelle-cour-electorale-speciale-prete-serment">“Cour électorale spéciale” comme en 2013</a>. La satisfaction de ces revendications suppose qu'une nouvelle crise politique grave ou guerre civile survient. Ce qui pourrait justifier une implication de la communauté internationale, en particulier des institutions régionales telles que la Communauté de développement de l'Afrique australe (SADC) et l’Union africaine, pour faciliter <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442272354/The-Political-Crisis-of-March-2009-in-Madagascar-A-Case-Study-of-Conflict-and-Conflict-Mediation">une transition</a> similaire à celle de 2009 à 2013 afin de résoudre le conflit et sortir le pays de la crise politique.</p>
<p>Le Collectif des candidats a entamé ses <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2023/10/02/a-madagascar-l-opposition-a-andry-rajoelina-descend-dans-la-rue-a-un-mois-de-la-presidentielle_6192052_3212.html">manifestations de rue le 2 octobre 2023.</a> Il entend les poursuivre jusqu'à ce que ses revendications soient satisfaites. </p>
<p>Cependant, de leur côté, Andry Rajoelina et deux autres candidats, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko et Sendrison Raderanirina, ont lancé leur campagne électorale. Bien que les manifestations du Collectif soient généralement pacifiques, dès le début, les autorités locales et nationales ont recouru à des moyens sévères (particulièrement, l’utilisation à outrance des gaz lacrymogènes) et à <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/fr/madagascar-lonu-sinquiete-de-la-repression-de-manifestations-lapproche-des-elections">des arrestations pour les réprimer</a>. </p>
<h2>Une situation volatile</h2>
<p>Dès lors, la question qui se pose à l'heure actuelle est de savoir si l'élection présidentielle aura lieu, comme prévu, au 16 novembre. Jusqu’à maintenant, rien n’est sûr car la situation est très volatile et la tension entre les deux camps risque de dégénérer à tout moment, surtout à l’approche de la date fatidique. Malgré tout, une chose est sûre : le gouvernement en place, la Ceni et la HCC, qui soutiennent dans une certaine mesure leur ancien patron, Andry Rajoelina, sont déterminés à ce que l’élection présidentielle se tienne à la date prévue. Reste à savoir alors s’ils réussiront dans cette entreprise.</p>
<p>Une autre question qui mérite d’être examinée est de savoir si une élection, qui risque de se dérouler dans un contexte de manifestations massives de rue et peut-être de violences, sera considérée comme “libre, équitable et acceptée par tous”. Cela dépendra des évaluations des différents observateurs électoraux et surtout des partenaires financiers dont le pays dépend pour sa survie économique. Plusieurs organisations de la société civile et la <a href="https://midi-madagasikara.mg/sadc-pour-lapaisement-a-madagascar/">SADC ont déjà annoncé leur participation en tant qu'observateurs</a>. </p>
<p>D'autres organisations nationales et internationales sont aussi attendues. De plus, la plupart des partenaires financiers ont contribué aux <a href="https://www.madagascar-tribune.com/Les-premiers-fonds-du-Basket-Fund-arrivent.html">fonds de financement de l’ élection</a>. </p>
<p>Pourtant, cette élection comporte des risques importants aussi bien pour Andry Rajoelina et son équipe que pour les membres du Collectif des candidats. Pour les premiers, s’ils s’entêtent à organiser l’élection dans de telles conditions, sans essayer de diminuer la tension, ils risquent de faire face à un durcissement du mouvement de l’opposition et éventuellement à une guerre fratricide. De plus, même s’ils réussissent à tenir l’élection dans ces conditions, ils pourraient finalement aboutir à des résultats qui ne seront reconnus ni au niveau national, ni à l’échelle internationale. Dans ce cas, le <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442272354/The-Political-Crisis-of-March-2009-in-Madagascar-A-Case-Study-of-Conflict-and-Conflict-Mediation">scénario de 2009</a> pourrait encore réapparaitre.</p>
<p>Pour les membres du Collectif des candidats, le risque le plus apparent serait de perdre l’élection sans y participer, c’est-à-dire que ses membres se seront disqualifiés eux-mêmes au lieu de disqualifier Andry Rajoelina. </p>
<p>Le Collectif et ses partisans doivent être convaincus de la légitimité de leurs revendications pour risquer leur santé, leur liberté, et même leur vie dans les manifestations de rue. Ils doivent aussi avoir à leur disposition les moyens (matériels, financiers, et autres) nécessaires pour faire face à un gouvernement déterminé à tout faire pour tenir l’élection. </p>
<p>En définitive, les risques sont énormes pour toutes les parties impliquées. Il est important de peser attentivement les actions de chaque camp dans cette situation tendue. La stabilité politique et sociale du pays et son avenir dépendent, en grade partie, de la manière dont ces défis seront relevés.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrien Ratsimbaharison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pour l'opposition malgache, le risque serait de perdre l’élection sans y participer, c’est-à-dire que ses membres se seront disqualifiés eux-mêmes au lieu de disqualifier Andry Rajoelina.Adrien Ratsimbaharison, Professor of Political Science, Benedict CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166462023-11-06T15:16:24Z2023-11-06T15:16:24ZMadagascar’s 2023 presidential election is crucial for the island’s future, but it’s off to a rocky start<p>Madagascar is set to elect its president <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-court-orders-one-week-postponement-presidential-election-2023-10-12/">on 16 November 2023</a>, for the next five years. </p>
<p>There’s a lot at stake. I’ve studied Madagascar’s politics – focusing on <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2764469">democratisation</a> and <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442272354/The-Political-Crisis-of-March-2009-in-Madagascar-A-Case-Study-of-Conflict-and-Conflict-Mediation">political transitions</a> – and believe that this election is crucial for the consolidation, or deepening, of democracy. </p>
<p>Democratic consolidation is vital. It fosters political stability, protects individual rights, and ensures that power is exercised by elected representatives who are accountable to the people. </p>
<p>Madagascar has, over the past couple of decades, struggled to consolidate its democracy. The so-called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Madagascar/Power-struggle">2009 coup d'état</a> – in which the military transferred power to Andry Rajoelina – reverted governance to an outright autocracy. Madagascar eventually returned to electoral politics in 2013 and is <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/madagascar/freedom-world/2023">now considered</a> a “partly free country”, or “hybrid regime”. </p>
<p>American political scientist Samuel P Huntington argues that <a href="https://www.iwp.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/The-third-wave-democratization-in-the-late-twentieth-century-by-Samuel-P.-Huntington-Ch.1.pdf">two consecutive peaceful transfers of power</a> are the most important measure of democratic consolidation. I share this view.</p>
<p>If this election is successful it would be the second peaceful transfer of power since the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Madagascar/Power-struggle">2009 coup d'état</a>. The first peaceful transfer of power occurred in 2019, when Hery Rajaonarimampianina (2014 to 2018), handed power to Rajoelina after a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/1/8/madagascar-court-declares-rajoelina-as-election-winner">bitterly contested</a> election. </p>
<p>The election is also important for the improvement of the economic and social conditions of Madagascar’s population. Today, the large island nation is <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/how-madagascar-can-break-vicious-cycle-poverty">ranked among the poorest countries</a> in the world. </p>
<p>If the country fails to have a successful power transition, and is engulfed in another political crisis (maybe even a civil war), the situation will get worse. </p>
<p>It would also mean another lengthy process of transition. A new constitution and electoral law would have to be drafted and ratified, and a government of consensus set up before another presidential election could be held. In other words, the process of democratisation would have to be restarted, just like in 2009-2013. </p>
<h2>Uncertainty ahead</h2>
<p>Thirteen candidates are running, including the incumbent president Rajoelina. Rajoelina has held this office twice, as the president of the High Transitional Authority of Madagascar (2009–2014) and president (2019-2023). He <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-president-resigns-ahead-polls-november-2023-09-10/">resigned in September</a> as the constitution requires that the incumbent president transfer power to the president of the Senate if they run for reelection. </p>
<p>The election has gotten off to a rocky start. </p>
<p>Eleven opposition candidates (now 10) – who call themselves the “Collectif des Candidats” (group or coalition of the candidates) – have been protesting against the election’s organisation.</p>
<p>They demand the disqualification of Rajoelina as a candidate due to his <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20230621-uproar-as-leaked-documents-reveal-madagascar-s-president-rajoelina-is-french">acquisition of French citizenship in 2014</a>. Only Malagasy citizens can run for office. And, according to <a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4f5473682.pdf#page=8">Article 42 of the 1960 law on citizenship</a>, an adult loses Malagasy citizenship if they voluntarily acquire a foreign citizenship. </p>
<p>Madagascar’s Ministry of Justice and High Constitutional Court <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-court-orders-one-week-postponement-presidential-election-2023-10-12/">dismissed</a> this demand, refusing to declare Rajoelina’s candidacy void over his dual nationality. </p>
<p>The Collectif des Candidats also <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_lf-q0KmD4">call for</a> the reshuffling (if not replacement) of the Independent National Electoral Commission, the High Constitutional Court, and the current government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Christian Ntsay. They make these demands because they believe that these <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/10/22/madagascar-opposition-denounce-illegitimate-electoral-process//">institutions are biased towards supporting Rajoelina</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, they want a negotiation involving all political parties to resolve these issues before 16 November.</p>
<h2>Demands unlikely to be met</h2>
<p>The Collectif des Candidats started mass street protests on 2 October. They’ve generally been peaceful, but the authorities have used all means, including <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/us-eu-worried-over-political-tensions-in-madagascar-afb15e00">violence</a>, to suppress them. The coalition aims to continue these protests until its demands are met. But it doesn’t look like they will be. </p>
<p>For one, forcing Rajoelina to participate in a negotiation that would result in his own disqualification as a candidate is not likely to happen. </p>
<p>Secondly, it’s unlikely that the current government, electoral commission and constitutional court will enter into negotiations regarding their reshuffle or dissolution. </p>
<p>My concern is that the only likely situation for the Collectif’s demands be met would be another severe political crisis. This could necessitate the involvement of the international community – including regional institutions such as the Southern African Development Community and the African Union – to mediate the conflict and lead the country out of crisis. This is what happened during the 2009-2013 transition.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Rajoelina and the other two presidential candidates – Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko and Sendrison Raderanirina – have continued with their electoral campaigns. </p>
<h2>Free and fair election?</h2>
<p>Because of all these tensions, there are doubts over whether the presidential election will go ahead on 16 November. There are concerns that the tensions between the two camps could escalate. </p>
<p>I believe that one thing is certain: the current government, electoral commission and high court are, to an extent, supporting their former boss, Rajoelina. It’s in his interests for the election to go ahead. </p>
<p>Another critical question is whether this election will be considered “free and fair” and the results accepted by all. </p>
<p>As Winston Churchill <a href="https://richardlangworth.com/worst-form-of-government">said</a>, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” This is not to mean that democracy is a bad system of government, but only that it is a complex system which is difficult to manage. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the alternatives to democracy can be far worse. And so all eyes are on the elections, with the hope that Madagascar can peacefully pass this test.</p>
<p><em>Note: some links in this article, like the law of Malagasy citizenship, are in French.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrien Ratsimbaharison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A peaceful power transition would be a sign of a maturing democracy.Adrien Ratsimbaharison, Professor of Political Science, Benedict CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1430172021-03-30T07:51:38Z2021-03-30T07:51:38ZDidier Ratsiraka: the legacy of Madagascar’s “Red Admiral”<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392072/original/file-20210328-17-dg5cxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Madagascar's former president, Didier Ratsiraka.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Francois LOCHON/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Didier Ratsiraka, who was Madagascar’s president twice for a combined period of 21 years, <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20210328-ex-madagascar-leader-didier-ratsiraka-dies-at-84-socialist-revolution-ravalomanana">has died</a> at the age of 84. </p>
<p>Ratsiraka was a controversial figure. Nicknamed the “Red Admiral” for his socialist policies, he was a national hero and great patriot for some, for others a ruthless dictator with policies that led to the ruin of the national economy and the country’s cultural heritage.</p>
<p>His ascent to power was largely due to his military career. He was a naval officer and instrumental in the creation of the national navy. In 1972, he was appointed as the Minister of Foreign Affairs. </p>
<p>When Ratsiraka became Madagascar’s leader in 1975, it was a time of socio-political upheaval. After independence from France in 1960, the First Malagasy Republic was led by the Social Democratic Party and its leader, Philibert Tsiranana. Tsiranana was forced to resign and hand over power to the military, led by General Gabriel Ramanantsoa, in 1972. <a href="https://www.britishpathe.com/video/VLVAAYGNA67PGQUCPRRDUZO2QGOOZ-THE-MALAGASY-REPUBLIC-STATE-FUNERAL-IS-HELD-FOR-ASSASSINATED/query/States">Colonel Richard Ratsimandrava</a> replaced Ramanantsoa, but was assassinated after just six days in office. Ratsiraka was then appointed leader. </p>
<p>Ratsiraka went on to rule the island nation for 17 years as president of the socialist regime he created from 1975 to 1992. He returned to power four years later as the second president of the Third Republic from 1997 to 2001. </p>
<p>Ratsiraka had a strong socialist ideology. When he became president in 1975, he wrote a new <a href="https://www.axl.cefan.ulaval.ca/afrique/madagascar-malgachisation.htm">socialist constitution and a book known as the <em>Boky Mena</em></a> – the “Red Book”. Madagascar’s development was to be <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/madoverview5.htm">guided by</a> the socialist principles <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Charter-Malagasy-socialist-revolution-all-directional/dp/B0006WMA1E">laid out</a> in the <em>Boky Mena</em>. </p>
<p>Madagascar has had more than 10 presidents since attaining independence from France, but none have dominated the political landscape of the country more than Ratsiraka. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RLyAnTAAAAAJ&hl=en">specialist</a> on Madagascar’s politics, I argue that Madagascar today is in many ways the product of Ratsiraka’s political decisions and actions.</p>
<h2>Ratsiraka’s two important legacies</h2>
<p>Despite all the good things Ratsiraka might have done for the country, there are two legacies that stand out. </p>
<p>First is the country’s deep poverty. While Madagascar was among the most advanced African countries at independence, it is now ranked among <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/madagascar/overview">the poorest in the world</a>. The World Bank <a href="http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/726431608065032400/pdf/Madagascar-Economic-Update-Setting-a-Course-for-Recovery.pdf#page=14">estimates</a> that 77.4% of the population lived below the international poverty line of $1.90 a day in 2020. It was 46.1% in 1980 and increased to 70% in 1992, when Ratsiraka left power for the first time.</p>
<p>Second is the lack of education (or miseducation) of its young people. After two decades of socialism and “Malgachisation” (use of the Malagasy language as an educational language) under Ratsiraka, Madagascar had <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/umrj/article/view/134617/124250">one of the worst</a> education systems in the world.</p>
<p>These two legacies overshadow any others – positive or negative – that could be credited to Ratsiraka’s 21-year rule. </p>
<h2>Road to poverty</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329267534_The_puzzle_of_Madagascar%27s_economic_collapse_through_the_lens_of_social_sciences">Madagascar’s economic decline</a> started in the early 1970s. This was caused by a variety of factors including political instability, an oil crisis in 1973 and also capital flight due to nationalisation of the economy.</p>
<p>Under his socialist regime, Ratsiraka <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45193514">promised</a> to make Madagascar a self-sufficient country. Instead, there was scarcity and basic necessities were heavily rationed. The <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gross-national-income-gni.asp">gross national income per capita (GNI per capita)</a>, a measure of a country’s wealth but which ignores how that wealth is distributed across the population, dropped from its peak of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/madagascar">$858 in 1971 to $762 in 1975</a>. The decline continued under Ratsiraka’s government, it <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/madagascar">stood at</a> US$484 when Ratsiraka left office for the first time in 1992. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://countrystudies.us/madagascar/5.htm">nationalisation of economic sectors</a> that had been held by the French started with the previous military regime, but it was intensified under Ratsiraka’s socialist regime. Key sectors were nationalised included banking and agriculture. This led to massive capital flight that worsened the economic situation. To compensate for the flight of capital, Ratsiraka’s government had to borrow heavily in order to make <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/madoverview5.htm">massive investments</a>, which were for the most part unproductive. As a result, the national debt also increased exponentially.</p>
<p>Less than three years after taking power, there was growing popular opposition to Ratsiraka’s government. In 1977, anti-government demonstrations <a href="http://countrystudies.us/madagascar/5.htm">erupted</a> in the capital city, Antananarivo, because of severe shortages, including food and essential commodities. </p>
<h2>Education legacy</h2>
<p>Under Ratsiraka, there was a determined push for “Education for All”, but it was an experiment without proper planning or resources. He tried to achieve, in a few years, what had not been done for generations. </p>
<p>Within a couple of years, Ratsiraka <a href="https://cice.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/4-2-71.pdf">wanted</a> to build one primary school in each <em>fokontany</em> (neighborhood), one middle school in each <em>firaisana</em> (an administrative unit between a neighborhood and a county), one high school in each <em>fivondronana</em> (county), and one university in each <em>faritany</em> (province). But there weren’t enough financial resources to build these schools or enough staff and teachers to run them.</p>
<p>Instead of educating everyone, they ended up with students who did not know what they were supposed to know at the grade levels they were in. Several generations of Malagasy – especially those completing their secondary education from the 1970s to the 1990s – had a very poor education. They are widely known as the <a href="https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu:253821/datastream/PDF/view">“Sacrificed Generation”</a>.</p>
<p>One contributing factor to this was “Malgachisation” – replacing French with Malagasy as the language of instruction. French had been the only language of instruction since the colonial period. The problem was that there weren’t enough books or educational programs in Malagasy. </p>
<p>The economic and political elites flooded private schools. <a href="https://www.k12academics.com/Education%20Worldwide/Education%20in%20Madagascar/performance-education-madagascar">In the 1991 academic year</a>, about 5,800 students were enrolled in private French-sponsored schools, the most prestigious of the education system. Another 199,000 students were enrolled in private Roman Catholic schools. The vast majority (an estimated 1.5 million students) found themselves trapped in the public school system.</p>
<h2>Transitions of power</h2>
<p>The regime started to buckle under the weight of a growing opposition voice. Several thousand people <a href="https://uca.edu/politicalscience/dadm-project/sub-saharan-africa-region/malagasy-republicmadagascar-1960-present/">demonstrated</a> against the government in 1991. Security forces opened fire on the crowds outside the presidential palace, <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/feature/2002/04/09/independent-years">about</a> 130 people were killed.</p>
<p>Under pressure of these demonstrations, Ratsiraka introduced democratic reforms. And, in 1992 elections, Ratsiraka was defeated by Albert Zafy in the country’s first multiparty elections.</p>
<h2>The return</h2>
<p>Ratsiraka managed to be democratically re-elected once more in 1997, when Zafy was impeached due to alleged political corruption.
He now described himself <a href="https://newint.org/features/1999/06/05/profile">as a</a> “humanist and environmentalist”. </p>
<p>Ultimately, it was Marc Ravalomanana (president from 2002 to 2009) who brought an end to his political career. The presidential election of 2001, which pitted the veteran Ratsiraka against the new comer and wealthy businessman, Ravalomanana, was highly contested and ended up in another political crisis and even a low level civil war. </p>
<p>Despite all of the mediation deployed by the Council of Christian Churches in Madagascar, the African Union, and other entities, the electoral conflict was not resolved. Ratsiraka eventually lost in court and fled to France in 2002. </p>
<p>Ratsiraka returned to run for office one last time, in 2018, but he was no longer a major political actor. He <a href="https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/2638/">didn’t</a> even garner more than 1% of the vote.</p>
<p>Throughout his life, Ratsiraka fought hard to lead Madagascar. But what kind of country did he leave behind? One of the poorest in the world with an education system in tatters.</p>
<p>Ratsiraka will be remembered as a national hero for his supporters, and as the president who ruined his country by his opponents.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrien Ratsimbaharison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ratsiraka was a national hero and great patriot for some, for others a ruthless dictator.Adrien Ratsimbaharison, Professor of Political Science, Benedict CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1019832018-09-02T07:48:27Z2018-09-02T07:48:27ZMadagascar’s next president must put public safety and job creation first<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233894/original/file-20180828-86150-12srrbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Since independence in 1960, Madagascar has experienced a handful of political crises.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Madagascar is gearing up for presidential elections in November this year. The Conversation Africa spoke to Adrien Ratsimbaharison about how the elections might unfold and what challenges Madagascar’s new president will face.</em></p>
<p><strong>How many presidents has Madagascar had since the coup in 2009 and have these transitions been peaceful?</strong></p>
<p>Since independence in 1960, Madagascar has experienced a handful of political crises. Most presidential elections have been rigged by the incumbent and rejected by the opposition. The most disputed election was in 2001 when Marc Ravalomanana ran against the long-time dictatorial president, Didier Ratsiraka, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/29/2">won</a>. The post-electoral conflict between the two men quickly escalated to a tense political crisis and a low-level civil war in early 2002. </p>
<p>Since Ravalomanana was <a href="https://globaljournals.org/GJHSS_Volume17/2-The-Politics-of-Labeling-in-International.pdf">controversially removed</a> from office in 2009 the country has had two presidents. While many considered it a coup, he himself signed the ordinance of his resignation and the “coup”
leader —- opposition figure Andry Rajeolina —- was allowed to stay in power and negotiate a peace agreement. </p>
<p>A series of peace negotiations between the major political parties <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3022451">were held</a> over the next couple of years to prevent escalating unrest. </p>
<p>Rajoelina led the country until the next presidential election four years later. Neither Ravalomanana nor Rajoelina were allowed to run, but one of Rajoelina’s allies, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, was democratically elected. This political transition was peaceful, even though Rajoelina kept pushing back the election dates and despite staunch opposition by supporters of Marc Ravalomanana.</p>
<p>Rajonarimampianina’s first term in office was a rocky one, but generally peaceful. During his tenure, there were two attempts to have him impeached and he fell out with Rajoelina.</p>
<p><strong>What are the prospects for peaceful elections?</strong></p>
<p>Many observers fear that the next presidential election will be accompanied, if not followed, by violence. Mainly because the former three leaders —- Ravalomanana, Rajoelina and Rajaonarimampianina —- are the main contenders. </p>
<p>The stakes are really high for all three. </p>
<p>Rajaonarimampianina’s government has tried to engineer some <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/madagascar-scraps-part-of-contested-electoral-law-statement-20180504">controversial electoral laws</a> over the last two years. But these backfired and he was almost impeached. </p>
<p>In fact, the latest impeachment attempt led to the High Constitutional Court’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-madagascar-protests/madagascar-opposition-calls-for-government-to-resign-after-court-ruling-idUSKBN1I51E9">decision</a> that an election must take place in November. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, I believe that following years of political fatigue, the general will is to have free, fair and peaceful elections.</p>
<p><strong>Who are the other candidates in the upcoming elections?</strong></p>
<p>There are <a href="http://www.hcc.gov.mg/decisions/d3/decision-n26-hcc-d3-du-22-aout-2018-arretant-la-liste-definitive-des-candidats-au-premier-tour-de-lelection-presidentielle-du-7-novembre-2018/">36 candidates</a> running for president in this years’ elections. This number is about the same as the last presidential election five years ago, but a lot more than previous presidential elections. </p>
<p>But the main contenders come down to Ravalomanana, Rajoelina and Rajaonarimampianina —- the only candidates who can mobilise significant financial and human resources to win. The other candidates really don’t stand a chance. They include former President Didier Ratsiraka, former prime ministers, university professors, business people, lawyers and artists. </p>
<p>Some of these candidates will just run for the fame of being a former presidential candidate —- a title they will always have. Others will also run in the hope that they could demonstrate popular support and negotiate a position in future governments. </p>
<p><strong>What are the challenges Madagascar’s new president will face</strong>?</p>
<p>The newly elected president will have a huge job on his shoulders. The main challenges include public safety, job creation and raising more money for the government budget. </p>
<p>Over the last few years, there’s been a rise in violence and violent acts. In urban areas the number of armed robberies and kidnappings – <a href="https://www.a2globalrisk.com/analysis/sub-saharan-africa/madagascar-growing-trend-of-kidnap-for-ransom-targeting-business-owners">particularly</a> of Indian and Pakistani business people – has increased. Between 2010 and 2017 there were <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2018/03/12/a-madagascar-la-difficile-lutte-contre-le-kidnapping_5269710_3212.html">more than</a> 100 kidnappings, and these are on the rise with 15 taking place last year alone. </p>
<p>In rural areas, the number of attacks by cattle raiders and other bandits <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/9kzyga/meeting-the-armed-bandits-of-madagascar">has also</a> increased. Hundreds of people die and thousands of cattle are stolen every year in the country. </p>
<p>Though most complain about this increasing insecurity, the government has not been able to mitigate it. This is because it’s caused by poverty and high unemployment levels. </p>
<p>Largely owing to the political instability that Madagascar has experienced, it is now <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/madagascar">ranked</a> among the five poorest countries in the world, with a population of 25 million and a gross national income per capita of USD$400. </p>
<p>It has a dysfunctional <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/madagascar">economy</a>. The industrial sector is very weak, contributing on 16% to GDP. The bulk of the population – more than 80% – live in rural areas but only contribute to 26% of the GDP. </p>
<p>The service sector is deceptively large (with 58% of the GDP), but much of it is in the informal sector. The majority of people are poor – 70% live on less than $1.90 a day. Officially, the unemployment rate is low (1.8%), but this doesn’t take into account the insecurity of the informal economy and underemployment in the rural areas. </p>
<p>A major challenge for the new president will be to create jobs, especially in the industrial and service sectors. </p>
<p>Finally, Madagascar relies on a great deal of foreign aid to function, particularly when it comes to health care and education. <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/27-november-2017-plague-madagascar/en/">According</a> to some reports, foreign aid accounts for up to 70% of its annual budget. Consequently, the future president must be able to raise funds from the private sector of the economy through different schemes such as special economic zones to attract foreign investment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101983/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrien Ratsimbaharison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A major challenge for Madagascar’s new president will be to create jobs, especially in the industrial and service sectors.Adrien Ratsimbaharison, Professor of Political Science, Benedict CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/310902014-09-02T05:29:47Z2014-09-02T05:29:47ZWithout better public health systems, Ebola will be difficult to contain<p>With a high fatality rate and a terminal phase that causes bleeding <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-happens-to-your-body-when-you-get-ebola-28116">and haemorrhagic fever</a>, the Ebola virus has always attracted grisly fascination, yet funding and action against it have never been particularly high. The current outbreak in West Africa is unprecedented – it has now killed more than 1,500 people – and it appears to have stimulated a chain reaction, from treatment using experimental drugs and fast-tracking human trials, to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p025ql1v">mapping the genomes</a> of the virus in order to gain better understanding of the species involved. </p>
<p>But what has prevented this outbreak from being easily contained is the lack of public health infrastructure in the region.</p>
<h2>Preparedness</h2>
<p>The current outbreak in West Africa should stimulate a complete shift in public health policy. If future occurrences of this and other emerging diseases are to be prevented or their impact minimised, we need to learn a great lesson now. An effective treatment for Ebola would be good, a vaccine to prevent the disease even better, but the best thing that could come out of this is a more organised and trusted public health system. </p>
<p>First and foremost, none of the developing countries that have been hit, including Liberia, and Sierra Leone, were prepared nor had the capacity to manage the outbreak. For this you need trained personnel and a good public health infrastructure. For example, it was only after the outbreak that many hospitals saw the need to create quarantine units or holding centres, despite Ebola being a real health risk. Getting people to come forward to be immediately isolated has been a problem. </p>
<h2>Communication</h2>
<p>The publicity given to the outbreak has also been unprecedented – thanks to the 24/7 news cycle, the internet and affordable mobile phones. Good communication is crucial, but it’s clear that media can be used to spread bad as well as good messages. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57924/original/ysvjdm94-1409593147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57924/original/ysvjdm94-1409593147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57924/original/ysvjdm94-1409593147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57924/original/ysvjdm94-1409593147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57924/original/ysvjdm94-1409593147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57924/original/ysvjdm94-1409593147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57924/original/ysvjdm94-1409593147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monrovian mobile phone repairer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/themepap/7703202830/sizes/l">Themepap</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Nigeria, which thankfully has not seen a full-blown outbreak, panic as well as the rumour that drinking or bathing in salt water can prevent Ebola infection has <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/health/phony-ebola-cures-spread-online-article-1.1905855">led to at least two deaths</a>. In Liberia, where a national curfew was set up, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/world/africa/quarantine-for-ebola-lifted-in-liberia-slum.html?_r=0">violent clashes</a> took place in the West Point slum area of Monrovia after a quarantine was ordered. While tension is perhaps inevitable, the situation could have been managed better.</p>
<p>Without being able to drive home alternative messages to build trust, counter the stigma of the disease and tell people what symptoms to look out for and what to do, then there will be a problem. </p>
<p>Mobile phones are now affordable for many in African countries and are an asset for disseminating useful health education, particularly during emergencies. However, the information must come from trained public health officials with an appropriate background in risk communication – rather than those only interested in sensational news broadcast. These skills could better assist politicians, the press and government officials in communicating appropriately. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57925/original/4ntqdkmk-1409593565.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57925/original/4ntqdkmk-1409593565.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57925/original/4ntqdkmk-1409593565.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57925/original/4ntqdkmk-1409593565.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57925/original/4ntqdkmk-1409593565.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57925/original/4ntqdkmk-1409593565.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57925/original/4ntqdkmk-1409593565.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bush meat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jbdodane/10707257254/sizes/l">JB Dodane</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are also cultural issues around the eating of game meat (bush meat), a delicacy in most West African cultures and the likely origin of the Ebola virus. Ebola virus, like plague, rabies, psittacosis, Lyme disease and others, are zoonotic diseases or infections transmitted between vertebrate animals and humans. </p>
<p>It should follow, then, that avoiding or protecting the species that harbour them would be one plausible approach for preventing future outbreak. This would mean beginning a process of reconciling the protection of the species for biodiversity with that of zoonotic disease prevention. In other words, some wildlife species known to harbour pathogens that are transmitted to humans such as monkeys, bats, chimpanzees, should be regulated. </p>
<h2>Firmer commitments</h2>
<p>There is the need for national governments in Africa to start or improve their public health infrastructure and health staffing to address future outbreaks of infectious diseases which are inevitable – particularly in view of climate change effects and the resulting shift in disease spread.</p>
<p>Despite a commitment in <a href="http://www.who.int/healthsystems/publications/abuja_declaration/en/">the Abuja Declaration</a> to allocate at least 15% annual budgets to health care by 2015, <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/report/98459/african-governments-still-underfunding-health">only six countries</a> in Africa – including Liberia – have met this goal. According to World Health Organisation figures about a quarter of African Union member states were spending less on health now that they were in 2001. Now is the perfect time to push for countries to make good on their promises. And it will also impact other big problems such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.</p>
<p>Public health is all about preventing diseases before they happen and in poorer countries, the need is even greater. Moving forward, individual African nations and in collaboration with the African Union, should formulate public health policies and statutes for training, research and developing infrastructure in line with what obtains in more technologically advanced nations. </p>
<p>This must come in addition to the clinical research around the Ebola virus itself. By so doing, the WHO and Centers of Disease Control in the US and the respective ministries or departments of health in West Africa can share data and best management practices for addressing these emergencies in the future. </p>
<p>There are other issues such as the enormous economic losses and ratings agency <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1318646/economies-at-significant-risk-from-ebola">Moody’s has already warned</a> of the potential impact of the virus on the region. So when it comes to costs, it is better for African counties to avoid being penny wise and pound foolish by investing more in preventive rather curative measures that may or may not exist in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isoken Tito Aighewi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a high fatality rate and a terminal phase that causes bleeding and haemorrhagic fever, the Ebola virus has always attracted grisly fascination, yet funding and action against it have never been particularly…Isoken Tito Aighewi, Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Health, Benedict CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.