tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/centro-de-investigacion-y-docencia-economicas-2755/articlesCentro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas2021-06-01T17:45:11Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1614872021-06-01T17:45:11Z2021-06-01T17:45:11Z5 mandatarios reprobados en manejo de la pandemia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403227/original/file-20210527-19-uubwf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C3401%2C2259&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alexander Lukashenko, el líder autoritario de Bielorrusia, nunca ha reconocido la amenaza del COVID-19.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>COVID-19 es notoriamente difícil de controlar, y los líderes políticos son solo una parte del cálculo cuando se trata de la gestión de una pandemia. No obstante, algunos líderes mundiales actuales y anteriores han hecho pobres esfuerzos para combatir los brotes en su país, ya sea minimizando la gravedad de la pandemia; ignorando a la ciencia o intervenciones de salud críticas como el distanciamiento social y los cubrebocas. Todos los hombres de esta lista cometieron al menos uno de esos errores, y algunos los cometieron todos – con consecuencias mortales.</em></p>
<h2>Narendra Modi de la India</h2>
<p><strong>Escribe: Sumit Ganguly, Universidad de Indiana</strong></p>
<p>India es el nuevo epicentro de la pandemia, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">registrando unos 400.000 nuevos casos por día en algunos días de mayo</a>. Por muy sombría que sea, la estadística no capta el horror que se desarrolla allí. Los pacientes con COVID-19 están muriendo en los hospitales <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">porque los médicos no tienen oxígeno para administrar</a> ni <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">medicamentos que salvan vidas como el remdesivir</a>. Se rechaza a los enfermos de las clínicas que <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">no tienen camas disponibles</a>.</p>
<p>Muchos indios <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">culpan a un hombre por la tragedia del país</a>: el primer ministro <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>.</p>
<p>En enero pasado, Modi declaró en un <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">foro global</a> que la India había “salvado a la humanidad … al contener la corona de manera efectiva.” En marzo, su ministro de Salud proclamó que la pandemia <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">estaba llegando a su “final.”</a> En realidad, el COVID-19 estaba ganando fuerza en el país y en todo el mundo – pero su gobierno no hizo <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">preparativos para posibles contingencias</a>, como la aparición de una variante más mortal y más contagiosa.</p>
<p>Incluso cuando <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">importantes zonas del país</a> no habían suprimido por completo el patógeno, Modi y otros miembros de su partido llevaron a cabo mítines de campaña al aire libre antes de las elecciones de abril. Pocos <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">asistentes llevaban máscaras</a>. Modi también permitió que <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">un festival religioso que atrae a millones de personas se desarrollara</a> de enero a marzo. Los funcionarios de salud pública ahora creen que el festival pudo haber sido un evento de superpropagación y fue “<a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">un enorme error</a>.”</p>
<p>Como Modi promocionó sus éxitos el año pasado, la India – el <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">mayor fabricante de vacunas</a> del mundo – envió más de 10 millones de dosis de vacunas a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">los países vecinos</a>. Sin embargo, solo 1,9 por ciento de los 1.300 millones de personas de la India habían sido completamente vacunados contra el COVID-19 a principios de mayo.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi and Bolsonaro shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Narendra Modi y Jair Bolsonaro, acusados de cometer errores que agravaron la propagación del virus SARS-CoV-2 en Brasil y en la India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Jair Bolsonaro de Brasil</h2>
<p><strong>Escriben: Elize Massard da Fonseca, de la Fundação Getulio Vargas y Scott L. Greer, de la Universidad de Michigan</strong></p>
<p>El presidente brasileño, Jair Bolsonaro, no solo no respondió al COVID-19 – al que calificó de “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">pequeña gripe</a>” – sino que empeoró activamente la crisis en Brasil.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro usó sus <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.11927713.29">poderes constitucionales para interferir en</a> los asuntos administrativos del Ministerio de Salud, como protocolos clínicos, divulgación de datos y adquisición de vacunas. <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">Vetó la legislación</a> que habría ordenado el uso de cubrebocas en lugares religiosos y compensado a los profesionales de la salud perjudicados permanentemente por la pandemia, por ejemplo. Y obstruyó los esfuerzos del gobierno estatal para promover el distanciamiento social y usó su poder de decreto para <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">permitir que muchas empresas permanecieran abiertas como “esenciales”</a>, incluidos spas y gimnasios. Bolsonaro también <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">promovió agresivamente medicamentos no probados</a>, en particular la hidroxicloroquina, para tratar a los pacientes con COVID-19.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro usó su perfil público como presidente para dar forma al debate en torno a la crisis del coronavirus, fomentando <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">un falso dilema entre catástrofe económica y distanciamiento social</a> y <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">tergiversando la ciencia</a>. <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/esta-morrendo-gente-ta-lamento-mas-vai-morrer-muito-mais-se-economia-continuar-sendo-destrocada-diz-bolsonaro-1-24426281">Ha culpado</a> a los gobiernos estatales brasileños, a China y a la Organización Mundial de la Salud por la crisis, y nunca ha asumido la responsabilidad de gestionar el brote de su propio país.</p>
<p>En diciembre, Bolsonaro declaró que no se aplicaría la vacuna debido a los efectos secundarios. “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">Si te conviertes en cocodrilo, es tu problema</a>”, dijo.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11927713">La mala gestión pandémica de Bolsonaro</a> creó un conflicto dentro de su gobierno: Brasil pasó por cuatro ministros de salud en menos de un año. El brote incontrolado de Brasil dio lugar a varias variantes nuevas de coronavirus, incluida <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">la P.1, que parece más contagiosa</a>. La tasa de transmisión de COVID-19 de Brasil <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">finalmente está comenzando a caer</a>, pero la situación sigue siendo preocupante.</p>
<h2>Alexander Lukashenko de Bielorrusia</h2>
<p><strong>Escriben: Elizabeth J. King y Scott L. Greer, de la Universidad de Michigan</strong></p>
<p>Muchos países de todo el mundo han respondido al COVID-19 con políticas trágicamente inadecuadas. Sin embargo, sostenemos que los peores <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11927713/coronavirus_politics">líderes de una pandemia son los que eligieron el negacionismo total sobre la acción ineficaz</a>.</p>
<p>Alexander Lukashenko, el líder autoritario de Bielorrusia desde hace mucho tiempo, <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">nunca ha reconocido la amenaza del COVID-19</a>. Al comienzo de la pandemia, mientras otros países estaban imponiendo cierres, Lukashenko optó por no implementar ninguna medida restrictiva para evitar la propagación del COVID-19. En cambio, afirmó que el virus podría prevenirse <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">bebiendo vodka, visitando saunas y trabajando en los campos</a>. Este negacionismo esencialmente dejó las medidas preventivas y la ayuda pandémica <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">a las personas y las campañas de financiación colectiva</a>.</p>
<p>Durante el verano de 2020, Lukashenko afirmó que <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">le habían diagnosticado COVID</a>, pero que estaba asintomático, lo que le permitió seguir insistiendo en que el virus no era una amenaza grave. Supuestamente frustrar la enfermedad y visitar hospitales COVID-19 sin una máscara también respaldaba su imagen deseada de un hombre fuerte.</p>
<p>Bielorrusia acaba de comenzar los esfuerzos de vacunación, pero Lukashenko dice que no se vacunará. Actualmente, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">menos de 3% de los bielorrusos están vacunados contra el nuevo coronavirus</a>.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump, expresidente de Estados Unidos</h2>
<p><strong>Escribe: Dorothy Chin, Universidad de California, Los Ángeles</strong></p>
<p>Trump está fuera de su cargo, pero su mal manejo de la pandemia continúa teniendo devastadoras consecuencias a largo plazo en Estados Unidos – particularmente en <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">la salud y el bienestar de las comunidades de color</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump in front of a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Trump se recupero de COVID-19 en octubre 2020, lo que le permitió seguir insistiendo en que el virus no era una amenaza grave.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>La <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">negación temprana de Trump de la pandemia</a>; la propagación activa de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">información errónea sobre el uso de máscaras y tratamientos</a>, y un <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story?id=70160951">liderazgo incoherente</a> perjudicó al país en su conjunto – pero el resultado fue mucho peor para algunos grupos que para otros. Las comunidades de color <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">sufrieron enfermedades y muertes desproporcionadas</a>. Aunque los afroamericanos y los latinos representan solo 31% de la población de EEUU, representan <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">más de 55% de los casos de COVID-19</a>. Los indígenas estadounidenses <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">fueron hospitalizados 3,5 veces más y sufrieron 2,4 veces la tasa de mortalidad</a> de los blancos.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/?sh=485d6d39555e">Las tasas de desempleo también son desproporcionadas</a>. Durante lo peor de la pandemia de EEUU, se disparó a 17,6% para los latinoamericanos; a 16,8% para los afroamericanos, y a 15% para los asiáticoamericanos, en comparación con 12,4% para los estadounidenses blancos.</p>
<p>Estas <a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-COVID-pandemic">abrumadoras brechas</a> amplificaron las desigualdades existentes, como <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20200522&utm_term=4592697&utm_campaign=money&utm_id=44354750&orgid=">la pobreza</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">la inestabilidad de la vivienda</a> y <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">la calidad de la educación</a> – y probablemente <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">continuarán haciéndolo durante algún tiempo</a>. Por ejemplo, si bien la economía estadounidense en general muestra signos de recuperación, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh?srnd=premium&sref=x0fnd0v3">los grupos minoritarios no han logrado un progreso equivalente</a>.</p>
<p>Por último, la insistencia de Trump de culpar a China por la pandemia – que incluyeron expresiones raciales como llamar al <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kung-flu-phoenix_n_5ef3756fc5b6c5bf7c58ca7b">virus la ‘gripe kung’</a> – precedió inmediatamente a un aumento de casi el doble en los ataques contra <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">los estadounidenses de origen asiático y los isleños del Pacífico en el último año</a>. Esta inquietante tendencia <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">no muestra signos de disminuir</a>.</p>
<p>La administración de Trump apoyó el desarrollo inicial de la vacuna en el país, un logro que pocos líderes mundiales pueden reclamar, pero la desinformación y la retórica anticientífica que transmitió continúan <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/?ftag=MSF0951a18">comprometiendo el camino de Estados Unidos para salir de la pandemia</a>. Las últimas encuestas sugieren que 24% de todos los estadounidenses y 41% de los republicanos dicen que <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">no se vacunarán</a>.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador de México</h2>
<p><strong>Escribe: Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, del Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas</strong></p>
<p>Con 9,2% de sus pacientes con COVID-19 muriendo a causa de la enfermedad, <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">México</a> tiene la tasa de letalidad <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EITA%7EIND%7EMEX%7EARG%7EBRA">más alta</a> del mundo. <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">Estimaciones</a> recientes muestran que probablemente ha sufrido 617.00 muertes – a la par de Estados Unidos e India, ambos países con poblaciones mucho más grandes.</p>
<p>Una combinación de factores contribuyó a los brotes extremos y prolongados de la enfermedad en México. Y un liderazgo nacional inadecuado fue uno de ellos.</p>
<p>A lo largo de la pandemia, el presidente López Obrador buscó minimizar la gravedad de la situación. Al principio, <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">se resistió a los llamados para promulgar un bloqueo en todo el país</a> y continuó realizando <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">mítines</a> en todo el país antes de que finalmente, el 23 de marzo de 2020, México entró a confinamiento por dos meses. Con frecuencia <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">se negó</a> a usar cubrebocas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mexico's president speaks at a lectern on a stage with a small crowd of government officials sitting nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador, sin cubrebocas, anuncia ‘acciones extraordinarias’ como el confinamiento para combatir el virus SARS-CoV2, el 23 de marzo, 2020, tras semanas de rechazar que los mexicanos deberían quedarse en casa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Después de haber heredado un sistema de salud con fondos insuficientes cuando asumió el cargo en 2018, López Obrador aumentó los gastos relacionados durante la pandemia solo ligeramente. <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">Los expertos señalaron que los presupuestos de los hospitales son insuficientes</a> para la enorme tarea que enfrentan.</p>
<p>Incluso antes de que estallara la pandemia, la política de extrema austeridad fiscal de López Obrador – vigente desde 2018 – había dificultado mucho más el abordaje de una crisis de salud al <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">limitar significativamente</a> la ayuda financiera del COVID-19 disponible para ciudadanos y empresas. Eso, a su vez, agravó el shock económico causado por la pandemia, alimentando la necesidad de mantener la economía abierta durante todo el año pasado, bien entrada la feroz segunda ola invernal, de la que México apenas está comenzando a salir.</p>
<p>Finalmente, otro bloqueo se hizo inevitable. México volvió a cerrar brevemente en diciembre de 2020.</p>
<p>Hoy, <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">el uso de cubrebocas va en aumento</a> y <a href="https://elpais.com/mexico/2021-02-23/asi-avanza-la-vacunacion-contra-coronavirus-en-mexico.html.">México ha vacunado completamente a más de 10% de su población</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EMEX%7EGTM">en comparación con menos de 1% en la vecina Guatemala</a>. Las cosas están mejorando, pero el camino de la recuperación de México es largo.</p>
<p><em>Este artículo fue traducido por <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/mundo/2021/05/20/amlo-y-otros-cuatro-mandatarios-que-salen-reprobados-en-manejo-de-la-pandemia/">El Financiero</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly recibe fondos del US Department of State.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin recibe fondos del Heart, Blood, and Lung Institute de los National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca recibe fondos de la Sao Paulo Research Foundation y el National Research Council de Brasil.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado recibe fondos de CONACYT.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer ha recibido fondos del United States Army Engineer Research and Development Center, US National Science Foundation, y European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies.
</span></em></p>Estos líderes, en mayor o menor medida, subestimaron la gravedad de la pandemia – con consecuencias mortales.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1612102021-05-26T21:18:54Z2021-05-26T21:18:54ZCovid-19: Los cinco líderes que peor han gestionado la pandemia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402828/original/file-20210526-21-1u07eye.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3401%2C2279&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">El presidente de Bielorrusia, Alexander Lukashenko, sin máscarilla, visita un hospital de Minsk para pacientes del covid-19, el 27 de noviembre de 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS vía Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>La covid-19 es increíblemente difícil de controlar y, en este sentido, los líderes políticos son solo un elemento más dentro de la tarea que supone gestionar la pandemia. Pero algunos líderes actuales y pasados han hecho muy poco para combatir los brotes en sus respectivos países. Le han restado importancia a la gravedad de la pandemia, han despreciado a la ciencia o han ignorado indicaciones médicas fundamentales, como la distancia social o la obligatoriedad de las mascarillas. Todos los nombres de la siguiente lista cometieron al menos uno de estos errores, y algunos los cometieron todos (con trágicas consecuencias).</em> </p>
<h2>Narendra Modi (India)</h2>
<p><strong>Sumit Ganguly (Universidad de Indiana)</strong></p>
<p>India es el nuevo epicentro mundial de la pandemia, ya que en este mes de mayo está registrando <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">una cifra media de 400 000 nuevos diarios</a>. A pesar de lo nefasto de las cifras, estas no son capaces de reflejar todo el horror que se está viviendo allí. Los enfermos de covid-19 están muriendo en los hospitales porque <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">los médicos no pueden darles ni oxígeno</a> ni tampoco ninguna <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">medicina eficaz, como el remdesivir</a>. Los enfermos son abandonados en las puertas de las clínicas, donde ya <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">no hay camas libres</a>.</p>
<p>Muchos indios <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">culpan a un hombre de la tragedia</a> que vive el país: el primer ministro <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>.</p>
<p>En enero de 2021 Modi declaró en <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">un foro internacional</a> que India “había salvado a la humanidad conteniendo el coronavirus de forma efectiva”. En marzo, el ministro de Sanidad del país afirmó que la pandemia estaba <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">llegando a su “fin”</a>. En esos momentos, sin embargo, lo que estaba haciendo el covid-19 era ganar fuerza, tanto en India como en el resto del mundo (pero el Gobierno de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">Modi no se preparó para posibles contingencias</a>, como por ejemplo el surgimiento de una cepa del virus mucho más contagiosa y letal).</p>
<p>A pesar de que el virus aún no se había superado por completo <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">en muchas zonas del país</a>, Modi y otros miembros de su partido celebraron multitudinarios actos de campaña antes de las elecciones de abril; <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">muy pocos de los asistentes llevaban mascarilla</a>. Modi también <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">autorizó un festival religioso en el que participaron millones de personas</a> y que se celebró entre enero y marzo. Las autoridades sanitarias opinan que en ese festival se produjo una enorme expansión del virus, y ahora lo consideran “<a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">un inmenso error</a>”.</p>
<p>El año pasado, y mientras Modi proclamaba sus éxitos, India, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">el mayor productor mundial de vacunas</a>, envió <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">diez millones de dosis a sus países vecinos</a>. Sin embargo, a principios de mayo de este año, solo un 1,9 % de los 1 300 millones de habitantes del país tenía la pauta completa de la vacuna contra el virus.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi and Bolsonaro shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">El presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, y el primer ministro de la India, Narendra Modi, están acusados de gestionar mal los brotes de covid-19 de sus países.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jair Bolsonaro (Brasil)</h2>
<p><strong>Elize Massard da Fonseca (Fundación Getulio Vargas) y Scott L. Greer (Universidad de Michigan)</strong></p>
<p>El presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, no solo ha fracasado a la hora de hacer frente a la covid-19 (que él denominó burlonamente “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">gripecilla</a>”), sino que ha trabajado activamente para agravar la epidemia.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro usó <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.11927713.29">sus poderes constitucionales para interferir</a> en asuntos administrativos del ministerio de Sanidad, como por ejemplo la elaboración de protocolos clínicos, la divulgación de datos y la adquisición de vacunas. <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">Vetó leyes</a> como las que habrían hecho obligatorio el uso de mascarilla en los centros religiosos o las que habrían servido para compensar a los profesionales sanitarios, especialmente golpeados por la pandemia. También puso trabas a los esfuerzos de los gobernadores de los estados por impulsar el distanciamiento social, y del mismo modo se ha valido de su poder de imponer <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">decretos para permitir que muchos negocios pudieran seguir abiertos bajo la excusa de ser “esenciales”</a>, lo que incluyó a espás y gimnasios. Bolsonaro también hizo agresivas <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">campañas en favor de medicamentos</a> cuya eficacia contra la covid-19 aún no ha sido probada, sobre todo la hidroxicloroquina.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro se ha valido también de su imagen presidencial para condicionar los debates sobre la crisis del coronavirus. Así, <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">ha alentado el falso dilema entre la ruina económica y el mantenimiento de la distancia social</a>, y siempre <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">ha tergiversado lo que ha dicho la ciencia</a>. Ha <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/esta-morrendo-gente-ta-lamento-mas-vai-morrer-muito-mais-se-economia-continuar-sendo-destrocada-diz-bolsonaro-1-24426281">culpado de la situación a los gobiernos regionales</a>, a China y la OMS, y nunca ha asumido ninguna responsabilidad por la gestión de la pandemia en su propio país.</p>
<p>El pasado diciembre Bolsonaro declaró que no se pondría la vacuna por los efectos secundarios. “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">Si tú te quieres convertir en un cocodrilo, es tu problema</a>”, afirmó.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11927713">La mala gestión de la pandemia</a> por parte del presidente ha creado conflictos incluso dentro de su propio Ejecutivo, y es que el país ha tenido cuatro ministros de Sanidad en menos de un año. La gestión descontrolada del virus ha facilitado el surgimiento de nuevas cepas, incluida <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">la variante P.1, que parece ser muy contagiosa</a>. Y aunque la <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">tasa de contagio de COVID-19 en Brasil parece que por fin empieza a bajar</a>, la situación sigue siendo preocupante.</p>
<h2>Alexander Lukashenko (Bielorrusia)</h2>
<p><strong>Elizabeth J. King y Scott L. Greer (Universidad de Michigan)</strong> </p>
<p>Son numerosos los países que han respondido a la pandemia de covid-19 con políticas trágicamente equivocadas. Sin embargo, en nuestra opinión, los peores líderes están entre ese puñado que ni siquiera ha optado por medidas ineficaces, sino que en lugar de ello <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11927713/coronavirus_politics">se ha decantado por el negacionismo total</a>.</p>
<p>Alexander Lukashenko, el autoritario líder de Bielorrusia que lleva tantos años en el poder, <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">nunca ha reconocido la amenaza de la covid-19</a>. Al principio de la pandemia, y mientras otros países estaban decretando confinamientos, Lukashenko decidió no aplicar ninguna medida restrictiva para frenar la expansión del virus. En lugar de ello, afirmó que el virus podía evitarse <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">bebiendo vodka, yendo a la sauna y cultivando los campos</a>. Este negacionismo radical hizo que todas las medidas preventivas y de asistencia sanitaria recayeran <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">en los ciudadanos de a pie y en campañas de <em>crowdfunding</em></a>.</p>
<p>Durante el verano de 2020 Lukashenko afirmó que <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">había contraído covid-19</a>, pero que era asintomático, lo que le permitió seguir insistiendo en que el virus no era una amenaza seria. Esa supuesta superación de la enfermedad, junto con el hecho de que realizaba las visitas a los hospitales sin mascarilla, reforzaron su imagen de hombre fuerte.</p>
<p>Bielorrusia acaba de empezar con el esfuerzo de vacunación, pero Lukashenko ya ha afirmado que él no se vacunará. En este momento <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">menos del 5 % de los ciudadanos ha recibido alguna vacuna</a> contra la COVID-19.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump (Estados Unidos)</h2>
<p><strong>Dorothy Chin (Universidad de California en Los Ángeles)</strong></p>
<p>Trump ya no está en el poder, pero su mala gestión de la pandemia sigue teniendo devastadoras consecuencias a largo plazo para Estados Unidos (sobre todo para <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">la salud y en el bienestar de las comunidades de color</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump in front of a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intervención de Trump en un acto de campaña el 17 de octubre en Muskegon (Michigan) tras recuperarse del COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">negación inicial de la pandemia</a> por parte de Trump, la propagación activa de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">desinformación sobre la necesidad de ponerse la mascarilla y sobre los tratamientos contra la enfermedad</a> y, por supuesto, su <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story?id=70160951">liderazgo errático</a> dañaron al país en su conjunto. Pero las consecuencias fueron mucho peores para unos grupos que para otros. Las comunidades de color están sufriendo unas <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">tasas desproporcionadas de contagios y muertes</a>. Así, por ejemplo, a pesar de que afroamericanos y latinos suponen solo un 31 % de la población total del país, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">acumulan el 55 % de los casos</a> de covid-19. Los nativos americanos presentan una <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">tasa de hospitalización 3,5 veces mayor que los blancos, mientras que su tasa de mortalidad es 2,4 veces más alta</a>.</p>
<p>Las <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/?sh=485d6d39555e">tasas de paro tampoco guardan una correlación demográfica</a>. Durante lo peor de la pandemia en Estados Unidos, la tasa de desempleo de los ciudadanos de raíces latinas subió al 17,6 %, la de los afroamericanos al 16,8 % y la de los ciudadanos de ascendencia asiática al 15 %. Frente a ello, el nivel de desempleo entre los blancos fue del 12,4 %.</p>
<p>Estas <a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-COVID-pandemic">profundas diferencias</a> ampliaron las desigualdades que ya existían en términos de <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/">pobreza</a>, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">calidad de la educación</a> y dificultades relacionadas con el <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">acceso y disfrute de la vivienda</a>. Y lo más probable es que <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">estas desigualdades sigan aumentando</a> en el futuro. Por ejemplo, mientras que el conjunto de la economía estadounidense ya muestra signos de recuperación, el <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh">progreso económico de las minorías muestra menores niveles de pujanza</a>.</p>
<p>Por último, después de que Trump culpara a China de la covid-19 (lo que llevó aparejado términos racistas como “<a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kung-flu-phoenix_n_5ef3756fc5b6c5bf7c58ca7b">gripe kung fu</a>” –<em>kung flu</em>–) se produjo un aumento inmediato de las agresiones a <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">estadounidenses de origen asiático y a personas originarias de islas del Pacífico</a>, que se incrementaron en tasas de dos cifras. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">No hay indicios de que este tipo de ataques vaya a disminuir</a>.</p>
<p>La Administración Trump apoyó desde el principio el desarrollo de la vacuna, un logro que pocos líderes mundiales pueden apuntarse. Pero la desinformación que extendió el expresidente y la retórica anticientífica que exhibió siguen <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/?ftag=MSF0951a18">dificultando el camino de Estados Unidos hacia el fin de la pandemia</a>. Las últimas encuestas apuntan que el 24 % de los estadounidenses (y el 41 % de los republicanos) <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">se niega a vacunarse</a>.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador (México)</h2>
<p><strong>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas)</strong></p>
<p>El 9,2 % de los mexicanos infectados por covid-19 ha fallecido, lo que convierte a <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">México</a> en el país del mundo con la <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=OWID_WRL%7EMEX">tasa de mortalidad más alta</a> por esta enfermedad. Las últimas <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">estimaciones apuntan</a> a que el número de muertos asciende a 617 000, una cifra parecida a las de Estados Unidos e India, que sin embargo cuentan con poblaciones mucho mayores. </p>
<p>Una combinación de factores ha favorecido la incidencia prolongada y letal de la pandemia en México… Y un liderazgo inadecuado ha sido uno de ellos.</p>
<p>A lo largo de la pandemia, el presidente mexicano, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, buscó minimizar la gravedad de la situación del país. Al principio de la pandemia <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">se resistió a imponer un confinamiento</a> nacional y siguió <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">celebrando actos por todo el territorio</a> antes de que, finalmente, el 23 de marzo de 2020 México cerrara durante dos meses. López Obrador <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">rechazaba a menudo ponerse la mascarilla</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mexico's president speaks at a lectern on a stage with a small crowd of government officials sitting nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador anuncia sin mascarilla el confinamiento nacional el 23 de marzo de 2020 después de varias semanas durante las que animó a los mexicanos a seguir con sus rutinas cotidianas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>López Obrador, que heredó un mosaico de servicios de salud infrafinanciados cuando llegó al poder en 2018, incrementó sólo ligeramente el gasto sanitario durante la pandemia. Los expertos afirman que l<a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">os presupuestos de los hospitales son insuficientes</a> para hacer frente a la inmensa tarea a la que se enfrentan.</p>
<p>Antes incluso del estallido de la pandemia, desde el año 2018, López Obrador ha estado aplicando una política de austeridad fiscal extrema. Esto ha provocado que la gestión de la crisis sanitaria sea mucho más compleja, pues ha dejado <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">escaso margen para prestar ayuda financiera</a> a individuos y empresas. Se trata de una situación, por otro lado, que no solo agravó el impacto económico de la pandemia en sí, sino que además aumentó la necesidad de mantener la economía abierta durante todo el año pasado; de mantenerla abierta incluso durante la terrible segunda ola de invierno, de la que en este momento México solo se está empezando a recuperar.</p>
<p>Finalmente imponer otro confinamiento resultó inevitable, y México volvió a cerrar brevemente en diciembre de 2020.</p>
<p>Hoy <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">el uso de la mascarilla es voluntario</a>, y <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EMEX%7EGTM">México solo ha vacunado al 14 % de su población</a>, cifra que en la vecina Guatemala se reduce al 2 %. Las cosas están mejorando, pero a México aún le queda mucho camino por andar en la senda de la recuperación.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly recibe financiación del Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin recibe financiación del Instituto del Corazón, la Sangre y los Pulmones de los Institutos Nacionales de Salud.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca recibe financiación de la Fundación de Investigación de Sao Paulo y del Consejo Nacional de Investigación de Brasil (CNPq).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado recibe financiación del Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT).
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer ha recibido financiación del Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo de Ingeniería del Ejército de los Estados Unidos, de la Fundación Nacional de la Ciencia de los Estados Unidos y del Observatorio Europeo de Sistemas y Políticas de Salud.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p>La pandemia aún no ha terminado, pero estos líderes mundiales ya han ocupado su lugar en la historia por no haber combatido eficazmente el mortal coronavirus. Algunos de ellos ni siquiera lo intentaron.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1613782021-05-25T18:18:21Z2021-05-25T18:18:21ZVoici les cinq dirigeants qui ont le plus mal géré la Covid-19 dans leur pays<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402701/original/file-20210525-23-1kqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3401%2C2274&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Le président biélorusse Alexandre Loukachenko, sans masque, visite un hôpital pour les patients atteints de la Covid-19, à Minsk, le 27 novembre 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>La Covid-19 est extrêmement difficile à contrôler, et les dirigeants politiques ne représentent qu’une partie de l’équation lorsqu’il s’agit de gérer cette pandémie.</p>
<p>Mais certains dirigeants mondiaux, actuels ou sortants, ont fait peu d’efforts pour combattre les flambées de coronavirus dans leur pays, que ce soit en minimisant la gravité de la pandémie, en faisant fi de la science ou en ignorant les gestes sanitaires essentiels comme la distanciation sociale et le port du masque. Tous les hommes figurant sur cette liste ont commis au moins une de ces erreurs, et certains les ont toutes commises — avec des conséquences funestes.</p>
<h2>Narendra Modi, de l’Inde</h2>
<p><strong>Sumit Ganguly, Université de l’Indiana</strong></p>
<p>L’Inde est le nouvel épicentre de la pandémie mondiale, enregistrant au mois de mai quelque <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">400 000 nouveaux cas par jour</a>. Cette statistique, aussi terrible soit-elle, ne rend pas compte de l’horreur qui se déroule dans le pays. Les patients atteints du virus de la Covid-19 meurent dans les hôpitaux parce que les médecins <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">n’ont pas d’oxygène</a> ni de <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">médicaments comme le remdesivir</a> à leur offrir. Les malades sont refoulés dans les cliniques, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">faute de lits disponibles</a>.</p>
<p>De nombreux Indiens <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">accusent un homme d’être responsable</a> de la tragédie du pays : le Premier ministre <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>. En janvier 2021, Modi a déclaré lors d’un <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">forum mondial</a> que l’Inde avait « sauvé l’humanité… en contenant efficacement le coronavirus ». En mars, son ministre de la santé a proclamé que la <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">pandémie tirait à sa fin</a>. Dans les faits, la Covid-19 gagnait en intensité en Inde et dans le monde entier — mais son gouvernement n’a rien fait pour parer à <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">d’éventuelles résurgences des cas</a>, comme l’émergence d’un variant plus mortel et plus contagieux.</p>
<p>Alors même que d’importantes <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">zones du pays</a> n’avaient pas totalement supprimé le virus, Modi et d’autres membres de son parti ont organisé des meetings de campagne en plein air avant les élections d’avril. <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">Peu de participants portaient des masques</a>. Modi a également autorisé la tenue, de janvier à mars, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">d’un festival religieux qui attire des millions de personnes</a>. Les responsables de la santé publique pensent aujourd’hui que le festival a pu être un événement super-propagateur et qu’il s’agit d’une <a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">« énorme erreur »</a>.</p>
<p>Alors que Modi vantait ses succès l’année dernière, l’Inde — le <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">plus grand fabricant de vaccins</a> au monde — a envoyé plus de 10 millions de doses de <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">vaccins à des pays voisins</a>. Pourtant, seulement 1,9 % des 1,3 milliard d’habitants de l’Inde avaient été entièrement vaccinés contre la Covid-19 au début du mois de mai.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi et Bolsonaro se serrent la main" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Le président brésilien Jair Bolsonaro et le premier ministre indien Narendra Modi sont tous deux accusés d’avoir mal géré les épidémies de Covid-19 dans leur pays.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jair Bolsonaro du Brésil</h2>
<p><strong>Elize Massard da Fonseca, Fundação Getulio Vargas et Scott L. Greer, Université du Michigan</strong></p>
<p>Le président brésilien Jair Bolsonaro ne s’est pas contenté de ne pas réagir à la Covid-19 — qu’il qualifie de <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">« petite grippe »</a> — il a activement aggravé la crise au Brésil.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">a usé de ses pouvoirs constitutionnels pour s’immiscer</a> dans les affaires administratives du ministère de la Santé, telles que les protocoles cliniques, la divulgation des données et l’achat de vaccins. <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">Il a opposé son veto</a> à des textes de loi qui auraient, par exemple, rendu obligatoire le port du masque dans les sites religieux et indemnisé les professionnels de la santé ayant subi un préjudice permanent du fait de la pandémie. Il a également sapé les efforts du gouvernement de l’État pour promouvoir la distanciation sociale et a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">signé un décret pour permettre à de nombreux commerces de rester ouverts</a> en tant ‘qu’essentiels’, notamment les spas et les salles de sport. Bolsonaro a également fait la promotion agressive de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">médicaments non éprouvés</a>, notamment l’hydroxychloroquine, pour traiter les patients atteints de la Covid-19.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro a utilisé son poste de président pour influencer le débat autour de la crise du coronavirus, créant un <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">faux dilemme entre la catastrophe économique et la distanciation sociale</a> et en <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">déformant la science</a>. Il a rendu les gouvernements des États brésiliens, la Chine et l’Organisation mondiale de la santé responsables de la crise de la Covid-19 et n’a jamais assumé la responsabilité de la gestion de l’épidémie dans son propre pays.</p>
<p>En décembre, Bolsonaro a déclaré qu’il ne recevrait pas le vaccin en raison de ses effets secondaires. « <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">Si vous vous transformez en crocodile, c’est votre problème »</a>, a-t-il déclaré.</p>
<p>La mauvaise gestion de la pandémie par Bolsonaro a créé des conflits au sein de son gouvernement. Le Brésil a vu défiler quatre ministres de la Santé en moins d’un an. Les flambées épidémiques incontrôlées au Brésil ont donné naissance à plusieurs nouveaux variants du coronavirus, dont le <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">variant P.1, qui semble plus contagieux</a>. Le taux de transmission de la Covid-19 au Brésil <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">commence enfin à baisser</a>, mais la situation reste préoccupante.</p>
<h2>Alexandre Loukachenko de la Biélorussie</h2>
<p><strong>Elizabeth J. King et Scott L. Greer, Université du Michigan</strong></p>
<p>De nombreux pays dans le monde ont affronté la Covid-19 avec des politiques tragiquement défaillantes. Cependant, selon nous, les pires dirigeants face à cette pandémie sont ceux qui ont choisi le déni total plutôt que l’action inefficace.</p>
<p>Alexandre Loukachenko, dirigeant autoritaire de longue date de la Biélorussie, n’a jamais <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">reconnu la menace</a> de la Covid-19. Au début de la pandémie, alors que d’autres pays imposaient des mesures de confinement, Loukachenko n’a mis en œuvre aucune mesure sanitaire pour empêcher la propagation du virus.</p>
<p>Au lieu de cela, il a affirmé que le virus pouvait être évité en <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">buvant de la vodka</a>, en allant au sauna et en travaillant dans les champs. Ce négationnisme a pratiquement laissé le fardeau des mesures préventives et l’aide à la pandémie <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">aux individus et aux campagnes</a> de financement participatif.</p>
<p>Au cours de l’été 2020, Loukachenko a déclaré <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">qu’il avait reçu un diagnostic de Covid-19</a> mais qu’il était asymptomatique, ce qui lui a permis de continuer à prétexter que le virus n’était pas une menace sérieuse. Le fait d’avoir prétendument déjoué la maladie et d’avoir visité des hôpitaux dédiés à la Covid-19 sans masque a également renforcé l’image d’homme fort qu’il souhaitait donner.</p>
<p>La Biélorussie vient de commencer sa campagne de vaccination, mais M. Loukachenko affirme qu’il ne se fera pas vacciner. Actuellement, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">moins de 3 % des Biélorusses</a> sont vaccinés contre la Covid-19.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump des États-Unis</h2>
<p><strong>Dorothy Chin, Université de Californie, Los Angeles</strong></p>
<p>Trump n’est plus en fonction, mais sa mauvaise gestion de la pandémie continuera d’avoir des conséquences dévastatrices à long terme sur les États-Unis — en particulier sur la <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">santé et le bien-être des minorités</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump face à une foule" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump lors d’un rassemblement de campagne le 17 octobre 2020 à Muskegon, Michigan, après s’être remis du Covid-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Le <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">déni précoce de la pandémie</a> par Trump, la <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">désinformation continue sur le port du masque</a> et les traitements, ainsi que <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story ?id=70160951">son leadership incohérent</a> ont nui au pays dans son ensemble — mais le résultat a été bien pire pour certains groupes que pour d’autres. Les communautés de couleur ont souffert <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">d’un nombre disproportionné de contaminations et de décès.</a> Bien que les Afro-Américains et les Latinos ne représentent que 31 % de la population américaine, par exemple, ils comptent <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">pour plus de 55 % des cas de Covid-19.</a> Les membres des communautés amérindiennes <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">ont été hospitalisés 3,5 fois plus et ont souffert d’un taux de mortalité 2,4 fois supérieur</a> à celui des Blancs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/ ?sh=485d6d39555%3Csup%3Ee%3C/sup">Les taux de chômage sont également disproportionnés</a>. Au plus fort de la pandémie aux États-Unis, ils ont grimpé à 17,6 % pour les Latino-Américains, 16,8 % pour les Afro-Américains et 15 % pour les Américains d’origine asiatique, contre 12,4 % pour les Américains blancs.</p>
<p><a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-Covid-pandemic">Ces écarts considérables</a> ont amplifié les inégalités existantes telles que la <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/">pauvreté</a>, la <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">précarité du logement</a> et la <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">qualité de l’enseignement</a> — et continueront probablement à le faire <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">pendant encore un certain temps</a>. Par exemple, alors que l’économie américaine dans son ensemble montre des signes de reprise, les <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh ?srnd=premium&sref=x0fnd0v3">groupes minoritaires n’ont pas fait de progrès</a> équivalents.</p>
<p>Enfin, le blâme de Trump à l’égard de la Chine pour la Covid-19 — qui comprenait des épithètes raciales telles que le fait de qualifier le virus de <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kellyanne-conway-coronavirus_n_5eeebc5dc5b6aac5f3a46b45">« kung flu »</a> — a immédiatement précédé une multiplication par près de deux des attaques contre les <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">Américains d’origine asiatique et les insulaires du Pacifique</a> au cours de l’année écoulée. Cette tendance inquiétante ne montre <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">aucun signe d’atténuation.</a></p>
<p>L’administration Trump a encouragé dès le début le développement du vaccin par les États-Unis, une réalisation dont peu de dirigeants mondiaux peuvent se prévaloir. Mais la désinformation et la rhétorique anti-scientifique qu’il a diffusées continuent de <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/ ?ftag=MSF0951a18">compromettre le chemin vers la sortie de la pandémie aux États-Unis.</a> Les derniers sondages indiquent que <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">24 % de tous les Américains et 41 % des républicains</a> disent qu’ils ne se feront pas vacciner.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador du Mexique</h2>
<p><strong>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (Centre de recherche et de documentation économique)</strong></p>
<p>Avec 9,2 % de patients atteints de la Covid-19 qui succombent à la maladie, le <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">Mexique</a> détient le <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer ?zoomToSelection=true& %3Btime=2020-03-01..latest& %3BpickerSort=asc& %3BpickerMetric=location& %3BMetric=Case+fatality+rate& %3BInterval=7-day+rolling+average& %3BRelative+to+Population=true& %3BAlign+outbreaks=false& %3Bcountry=USA%7EITA%7EIND%7EMEX%7EARG%7EBRA+ %22 %22">taux de mortalité le plus élevé au monde</a>. Des <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">estimations récentes</a> montrent que la pandémie y a fait près de 617 000 morts, soit autant que les États-Unis et l’Inde, deux pays dont la population est pourtant beaucoup plus importante.</p>
<p>Une combinaison de facteurs a contribué aux flambées épidémiques galopantes et prolongées de Covid-19 au Mexique. L’un d’eux est le manque de leadership national.</p>
<p>Tout au long de la pandémie, le président mexicain Andrés Manuel López Obrador a cherché à minimiser la gravité de la situation au Mexique. Au tout début, il a <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">résisté aux appels à décréter un confinement national</a> t a continué à organiser des <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">rassemblements</a> dans tout le pays avant de finir, le 23 mars 2020, par fermer le Mexique pendant deux mois. Il a <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">fréquemment refusé</a> de porter un masque.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Le président mexicain s’exprime sur une scène avec une petite foule de représentants du gouvernement assis à proximité" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador, sans masque, annonce un verrouillage national le 23 mars 2020, après avoir encouragé pendant des semaines les Mexicains à poursuivre leurs activités habituelles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ayant hérité d’une multitude de services de santé sous-financés lors de son arrivée au pouvoir en 2018, Lopez Obrador n’a que très peu augmenté les dépenses liées à la santé pendant la pandémie. Selon les experts, les <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">budgets des hôpitaux sont insuffisants</a> par rapport à l’énormité de la tâche qui leur incombe.</p>
<p>Avant même que la pandémie n’éclate, la politique d’austérité budgétaire extrême de Lopez Obrador — en place depuis 2018 — avait rendu la lutte contre la crise sanitaire beaucoup plus difficile en <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">limitant considérablement l’aide financière</a> liée à la Covid-19 disponible pour les citoyens et les entreprises. Cela a, dans la foulée, aggravé la grave crise économique causée par la pandémie, alimentant la nécessité de maintenir l’économie ouverte toute l’année dernière, en bonne partie pendant la féroce deuxième vague hivernale, dont le Mexique commence à peine à se relever.</p>
<p>Avec, comme résultat, une autre fermeture devenue inévitable : celle de décembre 2020.</p>
<p>Aujourd’hui, le <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">port du masque a gagné en popularité</a> et le Mexique <a href="https://elpais.com/mexico/2021-02-23/asi-avanza-la-vacunacion-contra-coronavirus-en-mexico.html.">a entièrement vacciné 10 % de sa population</a>, contre <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer ?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA %7EMEX %7EGTM">1 % au Guatemala voisin</a>. La situation s’améliore, mais le chemin de la guérison sera long pour le Mexique.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161378/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly reçoit un financement du Département d'Etat américain.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin reçoit un financement de l'Institut du cœur, du sang et des poumons du NIH.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca reçoit un financement de la Fondation de recherche de Sao Paulo et du Conseil national de la recherche du Brésil (CNPq).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado reçoit un financement du Conseil national de la science et de la technologie (CONACYT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer a reçu des fonds du Centre de recherche et de développement du génie de l'armée américaine, de la US National Science Foundation et de l'Observatoire européen des systèmes et des politiques de santé.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>La pandémie n’est pas terminée, mais ces dirigeants sont déjà entrés dans l’histoire pour avoir échoué à combattre efficacement la Covid-19. Certains d’entre eux n’ont même pas vraiment essayé.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1597872021-05-18T12:25:47Z2021-05-18T12:25:47ZWorld’s worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399550/original/file-20210508-19-1qkxfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C3401%2C2259&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>COVID-19 is notoriously hard to control, and political leaders are only part of the calculus when it comes to pandemic management. But some current and former world leaders have made little effort to combat outbreaks in their country, whether by downplaying the pandemic’s severity, disregarding science or ignoring critical health interventions like social distancing and masks. All of the men on this list committed at least one of those mistakes, and some committed all of them – with deadly consequences.</em></p>
<h2>Narendra Modi of India</h2>
<p><strong>Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University</strong></p>
<p>India is the new epicenter of the global pandemic, recording some <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">400,000 new cases per day by May 2021</a>. However grim, this statistic fails to capture the sheer horror unfolding there. COVID-19 patients are dying in hospitals <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">because doctors have no oxygen to give</a> and no <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">lifesaving drugs like remdesivir</a>. The sick are turned away from clinics that <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">have no free beds</a>.</p>
<p>Many Indians <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">blame one man for the country’s tragedy</a>: Prime Minister <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>.</p>
<p>In January 2021, Modi declared at a <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">global forum</a> that India had “saved humanity … by containing corona effectively.” In March, his health minister proclaimed that the pandemic was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">reaching an “endgame.”</a> COVID-19 was actually gaining strength in India and worldwide – but his government made no <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">preparations for possible contingencies</a>, such as the emergence of a deadlier and more contagious COVID-19 variant.</p>
<p>Even as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">significant pockets of the country</a> had not fully suppressed the virus, Modi and other members of his party held jampacked outdoor campaign rallies before April elections. Few <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">attendees wore masks</a>. Modi also allowed a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">religious festival that draws millions to proceed</a> from January to March. Public health officials now believe the festival may have been a superspreader event and was “<a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">an enormous mistake</a>.” </p>
<p>As Modi touted his successes last year, India – the world’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">largest vaccine manufacturer</a> – sent over 10 million vaccine doses <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">to neighboring countries</a>. Yet just 1.9% of India’s 1.3 billion people had been fully inoculated against COVID-19 by early May.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi and Bolsonaro shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are both accused of mishandling their countries’ COVID-19 outbreaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil</h2>
<p><strong>Elize Massard da Fonseca, Fundação Getulio Vargas and Scott L. Greer, University of Michigan</strong></p>
<p>Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro did not just fail to respond to COVID-19 – which he derides as a “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">little flu</a>” – he actively worsened the crisis in Brazil.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro used his <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.11927713.29">constitutional powers to interfere in</a> the Health Ministry’s administrative matters, such as clinical protocols, data disclosure and vaccine procurement. He <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">vetoed legislation</a> that would have both mandated the use of masks in religious sites and compensated health professionals permanently harmed by the pandemic, for example. And he obstructed state government efforts to promote social distancing and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">used his decree power to allow many businesses to remain open as “essential,”</a> including spas and gyms. Bolsonaro also aggressively <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">promoted unproven medicines</a>, notably hydroxychloroquine, to treat COVID-19 patients. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro used his public profile as president to shape the debate around the coronavirus crisis, fostering a <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">false dilemma between economic catastrophe and social distancing</a> and <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">misrepresenting science</a>. He has <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/esta-morrendo-gente-ta-lamento-mas-vai-morrer-muito-mais-se-economia-continuar-sendo-destrocada-diz-bolsonaro-1-24426281">blamed</a> Brazilian state governments, China and the World Health Organization for the COVID-19 crisis, and has never taken responsibility for managing his own country’s outbreak. </p>
<p>In December, Bolsonaro declared that he would not take the vaccine because of side effects. “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">If you turn into a crocodile, it’s your problem</a>,” he said. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11927713">Bolsonaro’s pandemic mismanagement</a> created conflict within his government. Brazil cycled through four health ministers in less than a year. Brazil’s uncontrolled outbreak gave rise to several new coronavirus variants, including the <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">P.1 variant, which appears more contagious</a>. Brazil’s COVID-19 transmission rate <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">is finally starting to drop</a>, but the situation is still worrisome.</p>
<h2>Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus</h2>
<p><strong>Elizabeth J. King and Scott L. Greer, University of Michigan</strong> </p>
<p>Many countries around the world have responded to COVID-19 with tragically inadequate policies. However, we argue that the worse pandemic <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11927713/coronavirus_politics">leaders are those handful who chose total denialism over ineffective action</a>.</p>
<p>Alexander Lukashenko, the longtime authoritarian leader of Belarus, has <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">never acknowledged the threat of COVID-19</a>. Early in the pandemic, as other countries were enforcing lockdowns, Lukashenko opted not to implement any restrictive measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Instead, he claimed the virus could be prevented by <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">drinking vodka, visiting the sauna and working in the fields</a>. This denialism essentially left preventative measures and pandemic aid <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">to individuals and crowdfunding campaigns</a>. </p>
<p>Over the summer of 2020, Lukashenko stated that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">he had been diagnosed with COVID-19</a> but that he was asymptomatic, which allowed him to continue insisting that the virus was not a serious threat. Allegedly thwarting the disease and visiting COVID-19 hospitals without a mask also supported his desired image of a strong man.</p>
<p>Belarus has just started vaccination efforts, but Lukashenko says he won’t get vaccinated. Currently, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">fewer than 3% of Belarusians are inoculated against COVID-19</a>.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump of the United States</h2>
<p><strong>Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles</strong></p>
<p>Trump is out of office, but his mishandling of the pandemic continues to have devastating long-term consequences on the United States – particularly on the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">health and welfare of communities of color</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump in front of a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump at a campaign rally on Oct. 17, 2020, in Muskegon, Michigan, after recovering from COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trump’s early <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">denial of the pandemic</a>, active propagation of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">misinformation about mask-wearing and treatments</a> and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story?id=70160951">incoherent leadership</a> harmed the country as a whole – but the outcome was much worse for some groups than others. Communities of color suffered <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">disproportionate illness and deaths</a>. Although African Americans and Latinos make up only 31% of the U.S. population, for example, they account for <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">over 55% of COVID-19 cases</a>. Indigenous Americans were <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">hospitalized 3.5 times more and suffered 2.4 times the mortality rate</a> of whites.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/?sh=485d6d39555e">Unemployment rates are also disproportionate</a>. During the worst of the U.S. pandemic, they soared to 17.6% for Latino Americans, 16.8% for African Americans and 15% for Asian Americans, compared with 12.4% for white Americans. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-COVID-pandemic">crushing gaps</a> amplified existing inequities such as <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20200522&utm_term=4592697&utm_campaign=money&utm_id=44354750&orgid=">poverty</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">housing instability</a> and <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">quality of schooling</a> – and will likely <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">continue to do so for some time to come</a>. For example, while the overall U.S. economy shows signs of recovery, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh?srnd=premium&sref=x0fnd0v3">minority groups have not made equivalent progress</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, Trump’s blame of China for COVID-19 – which included such racial epithets as calling <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kung-flu-phoenix_n_5ef3756fc5b6c5bf7c58ca7b">the virus the “kung flu”</a> – immediately preceded a nearly twofold increase in attacks on <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in the past year</a>. This disturbing trend <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">shows no signs of abating</a>. </p>
<p>The Trump administration supported the country’s initial development of the vaccine, an achievement few world leaders can claim. But the misinformation and anti-science rhetoric he broadcast continues to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/?ftag=MSF0951a18">compromise America’s path out of the pandemic</a>. Latest polling suggests 24% of all Americans and 41% of Republicans say they <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">will not get vaccinated</a>.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico</h2>
<p><strong>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas</strong></p>
<p>With 9.2% of its COVID-19 patients dying from the disease, <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">Mexico</a> has the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EITA%7EIND%7EMEX%7EARG%7EBRA">highest</a> case fatality rate in the world. Recent <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">estimates</a> show that it has likely suffered 617,000 deaths – on par with the U.S. and India, both countries with much larger populations. </p>
<p>A combination of factors contributed to Mexico’s prolonged, extreme COVID-19 outbreaks. And inadequate national leadership was one of them.</p>
<p>Throughout the pandemic, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sought to minimize the gravity of the situation in Mexico. In the very beginning, he <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">resisted calls to enact a nationwide lockdown</a> and continued holding <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">rallies</a> nationwide before eventually, on March 23, 2020, Mexico shuttered for two months. He frequently <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">refused</a> to wear a mask.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mexico's president speaks at a lectern on a stage with a small crowd of government officials sitting nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador, maskless, announces a national lockdown on March 23, 2020, after weeks of encouraging Mexicans to keep up their regular routines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Having inherited an underfunded patchwork of health services when he took office in 2018, López Obrador increased health-related expenditures during the pandemic only slightly. <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">Experts said hospital budgets are insufficient</a> to the enormous task facing them. </p>
<p>Even before the pandemic broke out, López Obrador’s policy of extreme fiscal austerity – in place since 2018 – had made tackling a health crisis much more difficult by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">significantly limiting</a> the COVID-19 financial aid available to citizens and businesses. That, in turn, aggravated the economic shock caused by the pandemic in Mexico, feeding the need to keep the economy open all last year, well into the ferocious winter second wave, from which Mexico is only beginning to emerge. </p>
<p>Eventually, another lockdown became inevitable. Mexico shut down again briefly in December 2020.</p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">mask-wearing is up</a> and <a href="https://elpais.com/mexico/2021-02-23/asi-avanza-la-vacunacion-contra-coronavirus-en-mexico.html.">Mexico has fully vaccinated 10% of its population</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EMEX%7EGTM">compared with 1% in neighboring Guatemala</a>. Things are improving, but Mexico’s road to recovery is long. </p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159787/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly receives funding from the US Department of State. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin receives funding from the Heart, Blood, and Lung Institute of the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca receives funding from the Sao Paulo Research Foundation and Brazil's National Research Council (CNPq). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado receives funding from the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer has received funding from the United States Army Engineer Research and Development Center, US National Science Foundation, and the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The pandemic’s not over yet, but these world leaders have already cemented their place in history for failing to effectively combat the deadly coronavirus. Some of them didn’t even really try.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1533752021-01-21T19:57:57Z2021-01-21T19:57:57ZUS could face a simmering, chronic domestic terror problem, warn security experts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379815/original/file-20210120-21-1rz7y7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C5507%2C3644&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some 25,000 National Guard troops protected Joe Biden's presidential inauguration due to fears of a far-right extremist attack.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-national-guard-gather-near-the-u-s-capitol-news-photo/1297445025?adppopup=true">Stephanie Keith/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/us/politics/biden-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">President Joe Biden took office on Jan. 20, 2021</a> without any violent incidents, many in the United States and worldwide breathed a sigh of relief. </p>
<p>The respite may be brief. The ingredients that led an incensed pro-Trump mob to break into the Capitol and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-joe-biden-inaugurations-capitol-siege-8828a6a920198d0ea1ee0c73a49d8847">plant pipe bombs</a> at other federal buildings on Jan. 6 remain. </p>
<p>Several U.S. security experts say they now consider <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/domestic-terrorism-has-superseded-the-threat-of-international-terrorism-warns-ex-nyc-police-commissioner.html">domestic extremism a greater threat to the country than international terror</a>. According to my <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.031607.094133">research on political violence</a>, the U.S. has all the elements that, combined, can produce a low-intensity terrorist conflict: extreme polarization and armed factions willing to break the law, in a wealthy democracy with a strong government.</p>
<h2>Terror can thrive in affluent democracies too</h2>
<p>Chronic domestic terror is not the same as civil war. </p>
<p>In the modern era, civil wars usually take place in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303">poor countries where the government is too weak and unstable to maintain control over a sprawling, often mountainous territory</a>. Rebels take over swaths of the country and seek to replace the authorities in those areas. This is happening in Afghanistan, India and Nigeria, to name a few places. </p>
<p>In the United States, one of the world’s more powerful nations, armed factions have a hard time permanently seizing land. Several dramatic standoffs between fringe extremists and American authorities – including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-capitol-siege-recalls-past-acts-of-christian-nationalist-violence-153059">1993 Waco siege</a> and the Bundy family’s 41-day <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2021/01/armed-occupation-of-malheur-refuge-was-dress-rehearsal-for-violent-takeover-of-nations-capitol-extremist-watchdogs-say.html">occupation of an Oregon wildlife refuge</a> in 2016 – ended <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-deaths-of-76-branch-davidians-in-april-1993-could-have-been-avoided-so-why-didnt-anyone-care-90816">poorly for the extremists</a>. </p>
<p>A huge asymmetry of power between the state and armed factions prevents militants from openly battling to usurp its authority, as rebel groups like the Taliban do and the American Confederates did. It <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002711431800">forces armed groups to act underground</a>, hiding among the general population. Because democratic states cannot, at least on paper, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546559408427271">openly violate human rights by systematically persecuting militants or torturing prisoners</a>, underground armed rebels can thrive in democracies. </p>
<p>But operating in secret <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1059103">imposes heavy logistical constraints</a>, my research shows.</p>
<p>It limits the number of operations they can sustain, meaning thinner ranks than full-fledged insurgencies and fewer overall fatalities than in civil wars. And although all rebels may dream of <a href="https://theconversation.com/fidel-castro-and-the-revolution-that-almost-wasnt-69659">Che Guevara-style guerrilla adventures</a> – heroically liberating “the people” from tyranny – in practice, militants working underground cannot avoid resorting to quintessential terrorist tactics such as bombs, shootings, bank robberies and kidnappings. </p>
<p>Take Italy’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Red-Brigades">Red Brigades</a>, for example. In the 1970s, this far-left organization aimed at overthrowing the capitalist system, but the Italian state was too strong. So the group resorted to terrorism. For two decades, the Red Brigades carried out a low-intensity campaign that killed perhaps 500 people, mainly with bombings and assassinations. They used violence <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/historical-roots-of-political-violence/67C092F25F02FFF74C7DC88CD1499D74">as a strategy to raise consciousness about communism and provoke an insurrection</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black-and-white image of a crowd looking at a bullet-riddled car with shatters windshields and windows" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A crowd surveys the damage after a Red Brigades attack in Rome, May 3, 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-police-car-hit-by-the-bullets-of-the-red-brigades-news-photo/935698506?adppopup=true">Stefano Montesi - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In reaction to this communist violence, far-right groups like Nuclei Armati Rivoluzionari responded with indiscriminate attacks, including a <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/02/italy-remembers-the-victims-of-the-bologna-massacre-40-years-on">no-warning 1980 train bombing in Bologna that killed 85 civilians</a>. They sought to create a level of disruption so high that it would <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343310392890">justify military intervention against the “enemies of the state”</a> – a fascist coup d'etat.</p>
<p>Both sides lost. There was no insurrection, no intervention. Italian democracy prevailed.</p>
<h2>Lone wolf terror</h2>
<p>The U.S, too, has experience with coordinated domestic terror. </p>
<p>Throughout the early 20th century, the Ku Klux Klan waged vicious campaigns against Black Americans in the South. As the <a href="https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1986.tb00852.x">tide of the civil rights movement</a> ebbed in the late 1960s, radical Marxists like the <a href="https://time.com/4549409/the-weather-underground-bad-moon-rising/">Weather Underground</a> and the <a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/s/sclead/umich-scl-bla?view=text">Black Liberation Army</a> emerged, using violence to oppose American military intervention in Vietnam and push for racial equality. </p>
<p>Between 1969 and 1981, these two groups – one predominately white, the other Black – conducted some 200 attacks, from bank robberies to prison breaks. Fifteen people were killed, most of them security officers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two Black men in handcuffs in a paddy wagon smile at the camera" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alleged Black Liberation Army member Henry Brown, center, was arrested in the slayings of two New York City police officers, Oct. 4, 1973. He was later acquitted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/black-liberation-army-member-henry-brown-left-accused-in-news-photo/540674374?adppopup=true">Vic DeLucia/New York Post Archives /(c) NYP Holdings, Inc. via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The FBI engaged in heavy-handed repression, particularly against Black militants. And Americans had scant interest in far left-wing goals like helping the oppressed peoples of the world. Both groups dwindled without much fanfare. </p>
<p>U.S. history has also featured a smattering of fringe, <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-age-of-lone-wolf-terrorism/9780231181747">lone wolf terrorists</a>, from the Unabomber on the left to the Atlanta Olympics bomber Eric Rudolph on the right. This trend has recently accelerated, with a deadly new massacre each year. Individual white supremacists, in particular, have attacked immigrants and people of color, in Charleston, South Carolina, El Paso, Texas and beyond.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.adl.org/media/14107/download">According to the Anti-Defamation League</a>, which tracks hate crimes, 2019 was one of the deadliest years for “domestic extremist-related killings” since 1970, with 42 victims in 17 separate incidents.</p>
<h2>Trump’s militias</h2>
<p>Attacks characterized by lone wolf perpetrators have the advantage of limiting legal scrutiny on the extremist milieu. But <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-abstract/58/2/336/2963248">with coordination, armed campaigns can scale up to do much more damage</a>.</p>
<p>To overcome the lone wolf stage, disparate militant groups must organize around a common theme that gives coherence to their violence. <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-yorkers-knew-donald-trump-first-and-they-spurned-him-before-many-american-voters-did-148303">Trump’s electoral defeat</a> gave his <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-supporters-seeking-more-violence-could-target-state-capitols-during-inauguration-heres-how-cities-can-prepare-153285">armed followers a big one</a>: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-twitter-feed-shows-arc-of-the-hero-from-savior-to-showdown-152888">myth of a stolen election</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3735%2C2480&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in militia gear lies face down on the ground in handcuffs with police standing over" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3735%2C2480&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police arrest a far-right protester during a pro-Trump rally on Sept. 7, 2020 in Salem, Ore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-arrest-a-far-right-protester-after-a-clash-with-news-photo/1228394654?adppopup=true">Nathan Howard/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Trump presidency emboldened a <a href="https://theconversation.com/police-soldiers-bring-lethal-skill-to-militia-campaigns-against-us-government-153369">cabal of armed groups with a far-right agenda</a>. Seeing their leader out of power will only grow this feeling of frustration. So will new repression of the far right, in the form of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-extremists/u-s-intelligence-reports-warn-of-extremist-threat-around-election-idUSKBN26K2J7">arrests, surveillance</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/does-deplatforming-work-to-curb-hate-speech-and-calls-for-violence-3-experts-in-online-communications-weigh-in-153177">social media clampdowns</a>.</p>
<p>With Democrats controlling Washington and elections perceived as rigged, American far-right groups may believe further violence is the only way to counter what they see as federal overreach. </p>
<p>If they pursue terrorism, <a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2006.31.2.42">history shows</a> their chances of succeeding are negligible. But this won’t stop them from trying.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis De la Calle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Far-right extremists in the US have the potential to mount a coordinated, low-intensity campaign of political violence. It wouldn’t be the country’s first experience with domestic terror.Luis De la Calle, Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University and Associate Professor in Political Science, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1112022019-02-18T15:18:23Z2019-02-18T15:18:23ZMexican war on drugs has, in places, decreased life expectancy<p>Most countries in the world have experienced sizeable improvements in health, living standards and life expectancy since the second half of the 20th century. In Mexico, life expectancy increased for more than six decades – but as we found in our <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304878">new research</a>, this rate slowed down between 2005 and 2015, and in some states even reversed.</p>
<p>This slow-down coincides with an unprecedented rise in violence. The number of homicides for men increased by more than 50% between 2005 and 2015, from <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304878">20.4 to 31.2</a> per 100,000 men. There were 262,459 registered murders in that period. As a result, gains in life expectancy for young men due to reductions in other causes of death, such as infectious and respiratory diseases, floundered.</p>
<p>Life expectancy is generally used to monitor population health. But this indicator doesn’t tell the whole story, as it masks substantial variation in length of life. Inequality in length of life is the <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/362/6418/1002">most fundamental of all inequalities</a>: after all, every other type of inequality depends on being alive. </p>
<p>Greater uncertainty about life expectancy obviously impacts negatively on quality of life. Since 2005, this question has become more difficult to answer for Mexican males, such as ourselves, and current conditions do not suggest that this will get better. From a public health perspective, a larger lifespan inequality implies a vulnerable society.</p>
<p>At the state level, the strongest effect occurred in Guerrero, a state in the south of the country, where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/05/world/americas/mexico-43-missing-students-investigation.html">43 students disappeared</a> in 2014. Here, life expectancy was reduced by two years over the period and lifespan inequality increased substantially. </p>
<p>Chihuahua and Sinaloa, in the north, also experienced reversed life expectancy trends, with losses of one year each. To put these figures in perspective, in 2010, men aged 15 to 50 years in Chihuahua (which borders the US state of Texas) had a mortality rate that was three times higher than the US troops in Iraq between <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0068">2003 and 2006</a>.</p>
<h2>The war on drugs</h2>
<p>The sudden increase of violence in Mexico is associated with military interventions to decrease illicit drug operations and organised crime since 2006, when president Felipe Calderón launched a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/dec/08/mexico-war-on-drugs-cost-achievements-us-billions">war</a>” against drugs and criminals. This, along with the so-called kingpin strategy of apprehending or killing the most prominent leaders in organised crime, increased competition and violence within criminal organisations. The persistent dispute led to the fragmentation of criminal organisations, which fed the violent cycle.</p>
<p>At the same time, drug trade flows changed with a boom in the contraband of opiates and opioids to make up for a reduction in the price of cocaine and the decrease of marijuana exports due to its legalisation in parts of the US. But criminals also engaged in other illicit activities, such as protection rackets, migrant kidnappings, oil theft, extortion, and the illegal trade of weapons and persons. The so-called war on drugs has become an unfinished violent cycle that has decimated the country’s social fabric.</p>
<p>Mexico has also systematically failed to recognise and correct the detrimental consequences for health and human rights that drug prohibition policies have had on the population. </p>
<p>Now, the new government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/149508/radical-amnesty-plan-mexicos-next-president">has promised</a> to take care of the deep causes of violence. New social programs focused on creating job and education opportunities for the young and other vulnerable groups are at the heart of his strategy. Nevertheless, he insists on asking Congress to reform the Constitution to legalise the use of the armed forces for public security and investigative tasks against crime. And this despite the fact that it was their intervention that contributed to the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17440572.2017.1354520?journalCode=fglc20">violent competition</a> among organised criminals in the first place.</p>
<p>The Mexican government’s new focus on improving social and human capital through education, community support and employment programs should of course be celebrated. Whereas the state used to see drugs mainly as a national security problem, it has begun to recognise its violent consequences as a social justice challenge.</p>
<p>But there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that inequality is the main cause of violent behaviour, even though it is a <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25920/210664ov.pdf">great factor of vulnerability</a>. So this new approach may be shortsighted. Meanwhile, the evidence that punitive and prohibitionist drug policies have helped trigger the current <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022002715587048">violence</a>, as well as <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/56706/">economic</a>, <a href="http://www.politicadedrogas.org/PPD/index.php/site/documento/id/100.html">human rights</a> and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)00619-X/fulltext">health crises</a> piles up.</p>
<p>The Mexican government’s new policy of combating poverty and inequality is well-intended, but drug policy reform really needs to be the top priority. The new president has promised to end to the “war” on drugs. Substantiating this promise by regulating marijuana and poppy is a step towards ending the cycle of violence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Froylan Enciso is Executive Secretary of the Mechanism of Evaluation and Monitoring of the Program of Human Rights in Mexico City. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>José Manuel Aburto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Mexican slow-down in life expectancy improvements coincides with an unprecedented rise in violence.José Manuel Aburto, PhD Candidate, Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern DenmarkFroylan Enciso, Faculty Member, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1078562018-12-04T11:38:56Z2018-12-04T11:38:56ZMarijuana in Mexico: how to legalise it effectively, fairly and safely<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248468/original/file-20181203-194941-miw6i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.shutterstock.com%2Fgatekeeper%2FW3siZSI6MTU0Mzg3NDUyMiwiYyI6Il9waG90b19zZXNzaW9uX2lkIiwiZGMiOiJpZGxfMTA3MTA2NTM1MSIsImsiOiJwaG90by8xMDcxMDY1MzUxL21lZGl1bS5qcGciLCJtIjoxLCJkIjoic2h1dHRlcnN0b2NrLW1lZGlhIn0sImlaZldjdThPdmhnUjVBVTdpZW1SbEQyV3FMRSJd%2Fshutterstock_1071065351.jpg&pi=33421636&m=1071065351&src=-mq1Qvxua6_NLsvJS83gig-1-50">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, there is a steady shift towards the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45806255">legalisation of marijuana</a>. But how should governments considering such a move ensure it is done effectively, fairly and safely?</p>
<p>Mexico is a good test case. The Mexican Supreme Court recently ruled that the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/01/mexicos-supreme-court-overturns-countrys-recreational-marijuana-ban/?utm_term=.0f285842768b">prohibition of marijuana was unconstitutional</a>, but the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/08/mexico-amlo-marijuana-cannabis-legalization-rollback">new government supports legalisation</a>, so the question no longer is if Mexico should legalise cannabis, but how.</p>
<p>President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s incoming administration <a href="http://www.senado.gob.mx/64/gaceta_del_senado/documento/85686">has presented an initiative</a> to regulate cannabis from seed to smoke. Legal cannabis would be accessible for recreational, medicinal and industrial uses through a commercial market, non-profit associations, so-called “cannabis clubs”, and home cultivation; all overseen by the establishment of an Instituto Mexicano de Regulación y Control del Cannabis.</p>
<p>But how good is this proposal, how can we tell – and is it a good model for other countries to follow? We analyse the proposal according to the “Ten Ps of marijuana legalisation”, a list of issues <a href="https://clas.berkeley.edu/research/drugs-10-ps-marijuana-legalization">developed by drug policy expert Beau Kilmer</a> that should be considered when legalising marijuana. They are: production, profit motive, promotion, prevention, policing and enforcement, penalties, potency, purity, price and permanency.</p>
<h2>The Facts</h2>
<p><strong>Production:</strong> The number of producers and the quantity they can produce determine the functioning of a market. Although the initiative limits home cultivation and cannabis clubs to 480g or 20 plants per person, supply levels for the commercial market are not set. But the necessity to obtain a license ensures eventual state control over who can produce how much marijuana.</p>
<p><strong>Profit motive:</strong> Entrepreneurs want to maximise their profits and will seek to expand their customer base. But this is at odds with the <a href="http://consejomexicano.org/multimedia/1537888545-44.pdf">public health objective of limiting cannabis consumption</a>. To resolve this tension, the government’s initiative intends to employ several regulatory tools to find “an equilibrium between absolute prohibition and the free market”. For example, licensing requirements prevent companies from exercising too much control over either the whole value chain or one part of it.</p>
<p><strong>Promotion:</strong> As with alcohol or tobacco, advertising is key for enticing new users to try out a substance. That is why it is important to decide whether, or to what extent, to allow the promotion of cannabis. The initiative currently prohibits “all direct or indirect publicity that has the goal of promoting cannabis use”.</p>
<p><strong>Prevention:</strong> To minimise problematic use, information and prevention are vital. While the initiative requires dispensaries, cannabis clubs and the regulatory agency to run information and prevention campaigns, where the funding for them will come from has not yet been determined.</p>
<p><strong>Policing and Enforcement:</strong> To be effective, established limits need to be policed. For example, the initiative states that driving under the influence of cannabis will be sanctioned. Although it requires that “the detection method must be based on scientific evidence and disregard discretion”, currently there is no good way to determine <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/researchers-race-to-devise-a-roadside-test-for-driving-while-high/">if someone is driving while high</a>. Unfortunately, Mexican police tend to take advantage of such uncertainties <a href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0188-76532014000200004">to exact bribes</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Penalties:</strong> Those who break rules have to face consequences. The initiative foresees that administrative sanctions, such as fines, community service or temporary arrest will apply to those who do not play by the rules established by cannabis regulation.</p>
<p><strong>Potency:</strong> As with alcohol, the varying potency of marijuana results in varying degrees of harm. The initiative establishes that the Instituto Mexicano de Regulación y Control del Cannabis will set both the potency levels and the ratio of the main psychoactive components of the cannabis sold.</p>
<p><strong>Purity:</strong> As with any other legally sold product, marijuana should undergo testing to ensure it isn’t contaminated with adulterants, pesticides or other impurities – and that it is what it claims to be. The initiative establishes that the cannabis regulation institute will also oversee quality control for both the production process and the product.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248470/original/file-20181203-194938-y6gu9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248470/original/file-20181203-194938-y6gu9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248470/original/file-20181203-194938-y6gu9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248470/original/file-20181203-194938-y6gu9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248470/original/file-20181203-194938-y6gu9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248470/original/file-20181203-194938-y6gu9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248470/original/file-20181203-194938-y6gu9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pricing is a key issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/135687047?src=A4nmePwV0odqfdIRuTpXyg-1-27&size=medium_jpg">Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong>Price:</strong> Setting the right price for legal cannabis is probably the most vexing problem the legalisation process faces. <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/marijuana-legalization-9780190262402?q=Marijuana%20Legalization&lang=en&cc=mx">What we know</a> is that if the price is too low, consumption increases, while if the price is too high, dealers will continue to sell marijuana illegally. So there is a tension between the two objectives of protecting public health and attacking black markets. Although the initiative pretends to achieve both goals, it does not elaborate on how to establish the right price point.</p>
<p><strong>Permanency:</strong> Once established, rules, regulations and institutions tend to be sticky. They persist even if they are ineffective or outdated. Consequently, it is important to establish mechanisms that will allow the law to be evaluated and, if necessary, updated. The initiative contemplates this point and empowers the cannabis institute to periodically evaluate how well legalisation is working.</p>
<h2>Will it work?</h2>
<p>The choices made in designing cannabis legalisation are central for determining the costs and benefits of legally available cannabis. As our analysis shows, the proposal to legalise marijuana in Mexico is generally both well thought out and comprehensive, touching on all of the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3109/00952990.2014.894047">crucial issues identified by Kilmer</a>. While <a href="https://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=28051">some points require elaboration</a>, this can be easily done in legislative deliberations and subsequent regulations.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.letraslibres.com/mexico/politica/los-retos-la-regulacion-la-cannabis">Proceeding with caution might be advised</a>, but would-be reformers should not be discouraged from legalising marijuana in Mexico. They can draw on existing international experiences and the domestic expertise of academics and civil society. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/11/14/mexico-is-not-uruguay-or-canada-before-pot-legalization-we-must-consider-our-violent-reality/?utm_term=.ab5be45d4c93">Marijuana legalisation is not just a risk</a> but also an opportunity for Mexico to create drug policies that are more fair, inclusive, respectful of human rights and protective of public health. This initiative is an indispensable first step in the right direction and a solid foundation to build on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonas von Hoffmann receives funding for his PhD from the UK Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raúl Bejarano Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mexico’s new president is backing an initiative to regulate cannabis from seed to smoke. Here’s how legalisation would work, and why it’s a good proposal.Jonas von Hoffmann, DPhil Candidate in Politics, University of OxfordRaúl Bejarano Romero, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/997292018-07-11T15:33:30Z2018-07-11T15:33:30ZNicaragua intenta derrocar a un dictador (de nuevo)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227026/original/file-20180710-70039-h15lds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nicaragua derrotó su ultimo dictador violento en 1979. Es el único pais en America Latina desde Cuba hacer una revolución exitosa. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Nicaragua-Protests/441871cc26944e5cbbeb3ca1f27608d2/104/0">AP Photo/Alfredo Zuniga</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/nicaraguans-try-to-topple-a-dictator-again-98123">Read in English</a></em>.</p>
<p>Después de meses de protestas casi constantes en Nicaragua, al menos <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44779257">300 personas han muerto</a>, incluidos en esta cifra cuatro policías, mil personas resultaron heridas, y el presidente Daniel Ortega —líder autoritario que en su momento parecía invencible— está a punto de perder el poder.</p>
<p>Los ciudadanos salieron a las calles de Managua a <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2018/04/tropical-spring-land-lakes-volcanoes/">principios de abril</a> después de que el gobierno de Ortega tardara en responder a un incendio forestal masivo en Indio Maiz, la segunda reserva natural del país. Cuando el gobierno decidió gravar los impuestos sobre las pensiones de los jubilados e incrementar los costos del seguro de los empleadores, una semana después, a lo largo de esa nación <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44398673">las marchas de protesta se fortalecieron</a>. </p>
<p>Pronto la policía pronto comenzó <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/4159175/student-protesters-dead-in-nicaragua-as-clashes-with-police-continue">a asesinar a los manifestantes</a>. Y lo que había comenzado en forma de manifestaciones organizadas, se transformó rápidamente en un <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicaragua-protests-threaten-an-authoritarian-regime-that-looked-like-it-might-never-fall-95776">movimiento</a>. El objetivo: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/world/americas/nicaragua-uprising-protesters.html">desplazar al presidente Daniel Ortega</a> y a su familia del poder.</p>
<h2>Nicaragua vs. Goliat</h2>
<p>¿Acaso puede Nicaragua <a href="http://www.humanosphere.org/basics/2016/12/nicaraguas-economy-is-growing-but-the-poor-may-be-falling-behind/">el segundo país más pobre de América Latina</a>, derrocar a su poderoso régimen con la sola negativa de salir de las calles? La historia de ese país así lo sugiere.</p>
<p>Soy un <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Benjamin_Waddell">académico especializado en América Latina</a>, asentado en Managua, Nicaragua, hasta que la violencia me obligó a evacuar. </p>
<p>Mi análisis sobre el terreno indica que los presidentes de esta región que se enfrentan a protestas masivas son derrocados con mucha más frecuencia de lo que se podría imaginar. </p>
<p>La mayoría de los líderes electos en América Latina, una región muy democrática, arriban al término de su mandato. <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0192512115604904">De acuerdo con Christopher Martinez</a>, profesor de ciencias políticas en la Universidad Católica de Temuco, en Chile, solo el 16 por ciento de los presidentes sudamericanos han renunciado o han sido imputados desde 1979. </p>
<p>Sin embargo, esto cambia cuando los líderes se ganan la ira de sus ciudadanos. Entre 1985 y 2011, el 70 por ciento de los líderes sudamericanos que enfrentaron protestas callejeras masivas <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23040829">fueron destituidos de sus funciones</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="DEb9X" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DEb9X/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Los manifestantes nicaragüenses se enfrentan a un genuino Goliat en Daniel Ortega. En el único país, después de Cuba, que orquestó una <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/230097">revolución armada exitosa</a> en América Latina, Ortega —ex guerrillero del frente sandinista que derrocó en Nicaragua al dictador Anastasio Somoza en 1979— es un coloso.</p>
<p>Ortega ha sido la persona más poderosa en Nicaragua por casi 40 años y presidente por 16 de esos años. Mientras no estuvo en funciones presidenciales, de 1990 a 2006, Ortega tuvo control del país de forma efectiva como poderoso delegado sandinista en la Asamblea Nacional. </p>
<p>Aun cuando los sandinistas eran minoría, Ortega lograba detener al país organizando protestas masivas, como lo hizo en innumerables ocasiones entre <a href="http://www.envio.org.ni/articulo/3418">1990 y 2006</a>. Y no cabe la menor duda de que esta ironía no escapará a los actuales manifestantes en contra de Ortega.</p>
<p>Pero, tal como asegura Malcolm Gladwell en su último libro “<a href="https://www.amazon.com.mx/David-Goliat-Desvalidos-inadaptados-gigantes-ebook/dp/B00G9K6NB0">David y Goliat: Desvalidos, inadaptados y el arte de luchar contra gigantes (edición en español)</a>”, “Los gigantes no son exactamente como creemos. Las mismas cualidades que parecen darles fuerza son a menudo la fuente de su inmensa debilidad”. </p>
<p>Es decir, los dictadores no son derribados, sino que tropiezan por sus propios pies. En el caso de Ortega, su mayor fortaleza —su gran audacia— ahora ha fomentado una peligrosa autocomplacencia. </p>
<h2>Cómo derrocar a un dictador</h2>
<p>La académica Kathryn Hochstetler, especialista en América Latina <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20434009">ofrece</a> una fórmula básica para predecir si los presidentes latinoamericanos caerán en medio de una protesta masiva. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222664/original/file-20180611-191947-j8tocs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222664/original/file-20180611-191947-j8tocs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222664/original/file-20180611-191947-j8tocs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222664/original/file-20180611-191947-j8tocs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222664/original/file-20180611-191947-j8tocs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222664/original/file-20180611-191947-j8tocs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222664/original/file-20180611-191947-j8tocs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ortega.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Alfredo Zuniga</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Si los manifestantes callejeros cuentan con el apoyo de la legislatura, pero no hay una sangrienta represión —dice ella—, las probabilidades de que un presidente permanezca son altas”. Así es como el ex presidente nicaragüense Enrique Bolaños, que gobernó Nicaragua de 2002 a 2007, logró mantenerse en su cargo <a href="https://www.latinnews.com/component/k2/item/2124-nicaragua--protests-take-bola%C3%B1os-administration-to-the-brink.html">a pesar de las reclamaciones de los manifestantes para que renunciara</a>.</p>
<p>Cuando los líderes optan por usar la fuerza contra manifestantes pacíficos, entran en un camino peligroso, según todo parece indicar. Desde principios de la década de 1990, casi todos los presidentes latinoamericanos que llegaron al poder a través de elecciones libres y justas, pero que luego utilizaron la violencia para sofocar levantamientos callejeros, fueron derrocados muy pronto. </p>
<p>La excepción es Venezuela. El presidente Hugo Chávez estuvo en el poder durante 11 años, aún después de utilizar la fuerza letal contra los manifestantes durante un <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/the-big-picture/2018/02/hugo-chavez-coup-happened-180207062954307.html">intento de golpe de Estado en 2002</a>. </p>
<p>Su sucesor, Nicolás Maduro, ha permanecido en el cargo a pesar de que <a href="https://www.observatoriodeconflictos.org.ve/sin-categoria/venezuela-6-729-protestas-y-157-fallecidos-desde-el-1-de-abril-de-2017">asesinaron a 163 manifestantes en el 2017</a>, aunque opino que cuando Maduro llegó al poder <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/americas/venezuela/report-venezuela/">Venezuela ya no era una verdadera democracia</a>.</p>
<h2>¡Que se vayan los dictadores!</h2>
<p>En una región con una <a href="http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/democracies-and-dictatorships-latin-america">historia de violentos dictadores</a>, la represión del estado provoca la ira de los ciudadanos. </p>
<p>Nicaragua ha sufrido un gran conflicto político. En 1979, los rebeldes sandinistas protagonizaron una insurrección de siete años para liberar al país del gobierno militar. A continuación, se produjo una guerra civil de 11 años entre el gobierno sandinista y <a href="https://www.brown.edu/Research/Understanding_the_Iran_Contra_Affair/timeline-nicaragua.php">los Contras respaldados por Estados Unidos</a>. </p>
<p>Está claro que en este momento hay <a href="https://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/nacionales/464323-cid-gallup-ortega-pierde-apoyo/">poca tolerancia</a> lo que provoca más derramamiento de sangre. Es probable que la determinación de los manifestantes se haya endurecido por el hecho de que la mayoría de los muertos son <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/world/americas/nicaragua-protests-killings.html">jóvenes estudiantes</a>.</p>
<p>Aislado por décadas de poder, Ortega parece haber subestimado el grado en que <a href="https://www.cenidh.org/recursos/57/">la violencia y la represión del estado</a> reuniría facciones que él había dividido tan hábilmente por tanto tiempo. Actualmente, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-44283106">estudiantes</a>, <a href="https://confidencial.com.ni/ortega-principal-responsable-violacion-derechos-humanos/">grupos de derechos humanos</a>, <a href="http://www.nicaraguadigital.com/cosep-ortega-debe-irse-lo-mas-pronto-posible/">el sector empresarial</a> y la <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2018/05/12/america/1526083994_942099.html">Iglesia Católica</a> se han unido para alcanzar un objetivo: destituir al presidente. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2018/05/13/5af87a04e5fdea52458b467d.html">El ejército</a> ha dicho públicamente que no abandonará el cuartel para reprimir a los ciudadanos. Si los generales mantienen su palabra, creo que los días de Ortega están contados.</p>
<h2>Una caída rápida del poder</h2>
<p>El colapso de Ortega ha sido vertiginoso. </p>
<p>En el 27 aniversario de la Revolución Sandinista, en 2006, Ortega cabalgó un caballo blanco entre multitudes frenéticas en la Plaza de La Paz, en el centro de Managua. Más tarde, ese mismo año, sería <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6117704.stm">reelegido como presidente de Nicaragua</a>.</p>
<p>En los años siguientes, el gobierno comenzó a colocar <a href="https://cronkite.asu.edu/buffett/nicaragua/love-him-or-hate-him-few-doubt-ortegas-political-skill/">innumerables pancartas y carteles con la imagen de Ortega a lo largo del país</a>. El presidente centralizó el poder en la rama ejecutiva, tomó el control de la Asamblea Nacional y la Corte Suprema de Nicaragua, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2014/01/nicaragua-scraps-presidential-term-limits-201412951043190534.html">abolió los límites de mandato</a>, y en 2017, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/07/nicaragua-elects-worlds-first-husband-and-wife-pair-as-president/">nombró a su esposa</a> como vicepresidenta de Nicaragua.</p>
<p>Ortega fue reelegido en el 2016 para su tercer mandato con <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/07/nicaragua-president-daniel-ortega-reelected-landslide-vote-rigging">el 72 por ciento de los votos</a>. Pero solo <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/07/nicaragua-president-daniel-ortega-reelected-landslide-vote-rigging">el 30 por ciento de la población de Nicaragua votó</a> en las elecciones presidenciales de ese año, y los partidos de la oposición alegaron que hubo fraude.</p>
<p>Tal vez su legitimidad ya estaba en duda en aquel momento. Ahora, el colapso de Ortega parece tan inevitable como lo fue su ascenso al poder.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Waddel no trabaja para ninguna compañía u organización que se beneficie de este artículo; tampoco consulta ni posee acciones ni recibe fondos por este concepto; ni ha divulgado afiliaciones relevantes más allá de su posición académica.</span></em></p>La historia demuestra que los presidentes latinoamericanos no duran mucho después de usar la violencia para reprimir las protestas masivas. ¿Será Daniel Ortega el próximo en caer?Benjamin Waddell, Associate Professor of Sociology, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/876612017-12-13T11:24:15Z2017-12-13T11:24:15ZStudy reveals racial inequality in Mexico, disproving its ‘race-blind’ rhetoric<p>For centuries, the United States has been engaged in a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/01/the-wholly-misunderstood-emancipation-proclamation/266741/">thorny, stop-and-go conversation about race and inequality</a> in American society. And from <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-macdonald-claremont-speech-disrupted-20170408-story.html">Black Lives Matter demonstrations</a> to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/09/why-the-nfl-is-protesting/540927/">NFL players protesting police violence</a>, public discussions on racism continue in full force today.</p>
<p>That’s not the case in Mexico. Mexicans have divergent ancestry, including Spanish, African, indigenous and German. And while skin color in Mexico <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/26/world/americas/negro-prieto-moreno-a-question-of-identity-for-black-mexicans.html?_r=0">ranges from white to black</a>, most people – <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/data-access.php">53 percent</a> – identify as mestizo, or mixed race. </p>
<p>In Mexico, inequality, though <a href="https://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/newsletterarticles/inequality-in-mexico/">rampant</a>, has long been viewed as a problem related to ethnicity or socioeconomic status, not race.</p>
<p>Our new report suggests that assumption is wrong. Published in November, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights2017.php">“Is Mexico a Post-Racial Country?”</a> reveals that in Mexico darker skin is strongly associated with decreased wealth and less schooling. Indeed, race is the single most important determinant of a Mexican citizen’s economic and educational attainment, our results show. </p>
<h2>Unequal in every way</h2>
<p>The study, published last month by the <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/about-americasbarometer.php">Latin American Public Opinion Project at Vanderbilt University</a>, or LAPOP, drew on data from the university’s Americas Barometer, a poll of 34 nations across North, Central and South America, as well the Caribbean. </p>
<p>To capture information on race, which is often <a href="http://www.crhoy.com/archivo/piden-incluir-la-raza-en-el-censo-para-evitar-la-invisibilidad-de-los-afrodescendientes/mundo/">not reflected in Latin American census data</a>, the pollsters themselves categorized respondents’ face skin tone on a <a href="https://perla.princeton.edu/perla-color-palette/">standardized</a> 11-point scale that ranges from darkest to lightest.</p>
<p>We were fascinated to see that the Mexico data clearly showed people with white skin completing more years of schooling than those with browner skin – 10 years versus 6.5. That’s a stunning 45 percent gap in educational achievement between the darkest- and lightest-skinned Mexicans. </p>
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<p>Darker-skinned Mexicans surveyed had also completed fewer years of schooling than the survey’s average nationwide finding of <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/data-access.php">nine years</a>. </p>
<p>Wealth, we found, similarly correlates to skin color. The average Mexican household income in the LAPOP study was about US$193 a month. Citizens with lighter skin reported bringing in more than that – on average, $220 a month. Darker-skinned citizens, on the other hand, earned just $137 – 41.5 percent less than their white compatriots. </p>
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<p>Overall, populations identified as having the lightest skin fall into the highest wealth brackets in Mexico, while those with the darkest skin are concentrated at the bottom. These dynamics, <a href="http://movilidadsocial.colmex.mx/images/promoviendo-la-movilidad-rc.pdf">other studies have found</a>, seem to persist across generations.</p>
<p>Similar disparities emerged when we examined other measures of economic well-being, such as material possessions – like refrigerators and telephones – and basic amenities. </p>
<p>For example, only 2.5 percent of white Mexicans surveyed by Vanderbilt’s pollsters don’t have running water, while upwards of 11 percent of dark-skinned citizens said they lack this basic necessity. Likewise, just 7.5 percent of white Mexicans reported lacking an in-home bathroom, versus 20 percent of dark-skinned Mexicans.</p>
<h2>Not a post-racial nation</h2>
<p>Our findings complicate the results of <a href="http://www.politicalsciencenow.com/the-mexican-color-hierarchy-how-race-and-skin-tone-still-define-life-chances-200-years-after-independence">numerous prior studies</a> showing that Mexicans <a href="http://racism.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1341:mexico01&Itemid=254">do not perceive skin color</a> as a meaningful source of prejudice in their lives. </p>
<p>According to a 2010 <a href="http://www.conapred.org.mx/userfiles/files/ENADIS-2010-Eng-OverallResults-NoAccss.pdf">national survey on discrimination</a>, Mexicans believe that age, gender and social class have a greater impact on their daily lives than race. </p>
<p>This perception likely relates to the country’s tradition of celebrating its raza mestiza, or multiracial heritage. Just last September, President Enrique Peña Nieto declared el mestizaje – racial mixing – as “<a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/hoy/ct-hoy-8713534-mestizaje-futuro-de-la-humanidad-dice-pena-nieto-story.html">the future of humanity</a>.”</p>
<p>The data paints a much less rosy picture. Race, it turns out, has a greater impact on a Mexican’s human development and capital accumulation than any other demographic variable. Our results show that Mexico’s “skin-color gap” is two times the achievement gap documented between northern and southern Mexicans, which is <a href="http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/informes-periodicos/reportes-sobre-las-economias-regionales/%7BF88DFFC0-499D-D23B-BB92-E8D9539B76D1%7D.pdf">an inequality more often cited in Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>It is also five times greater than <a href="http://www.inegi.org.mx/eventos/2013/desigualdades/doc/p-borisgraizbord.pdf">the urban-rural divide</a> reported in the poll. We even found that skin color has a significantly greater impact on wealth and education than does ethnicity – that is, indigenous versus white or mixed-race Mexican. </p>
<h2>Not an isolated case</h2>
<p>Our results add to a growing body of <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122410378232">academic research</a> highlighting a reality the government doesn’t want to admit: <a href="http://movilidadsocial.colmex.mx/images/promoviendo-la-movilidad-rc.pdf">Racism</a> exists in Mexico.</p>
<p>Racial and ethnic biases have so far been documented in Mexico’s <a href="http://www.politicalsciencenow.com/the-mexican-color-hierarchy-how-race-and-skin-tone-still-define-life-chances-200-years-after-independence/">allocation of public resources</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296775355_The_Tones_of_Democratic_Challenges_Skin_Color_and_Race_in_Mexico">politics</a> and, notably, the <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.5.376">labor market</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.inegi.org.mx/saladeprensa/boletines/2017/mmsi/mmsi2017_06.pdf">recent report</a> from the National Institute of Statistics, for example, finds that white people comprise 27 percent of all white-collar workers and just 5 percent of the agricultural sector.</p>
<p>Occasionally, some high-profile incident will bring Mexico’s racism to light. For example, there was outcry in 2013 when Aeromexico, Mexico’s most important airline, issued a commercial casting call saying that “nadie moreno” – <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/16/world/americas/mexico-dark-skinned/index.html">no dark-skinned people</a> – need to audition.</p>
<p>More often, though, racism is <a href="http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2005/11/19/mas-gargallo.html">ignored</a> or explained away. Many Mexicans, for example, argue that dark-skinned Mexicans tend to belong to ethnic, cultural and linguistic minorities and live in historically disadvantaged areas, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/twin-earthquakes-expose-mexicos-deep-inequality-84012">the rural south</a> and the heavily indigenous high mountains. </p>
<p>Since this is the case, <a href="http://www.milenio.com/tribunamilenio/que_tan_racistas_somos_los_mexicanos/clasistas-racistas-sociedad_mexicana-discriminadora-Alejandro_Rosas_13_376892308.html">they reason</a>, data that appears to show race-based inequality in Mexico is actually capturing class, ethnic and regional inequalities. </p>
<p>Although the premise of this argument holds true, the conclusion is incorrect. Our study accounted for gender, age, region of residence and ethnic origin – and still skin color emerged as a powerful determinant of wealth and education levels.</p>
<h2>Worst in show</h2>
<p>A second critique of racism in Mexico is that yes, it exists, but it is not as bad as in other places in the region, <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/05/brazils-new-problem-with-blackness-affirmative-action/">like Brazil</a> or <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/29/views-of-racism-as-a-major-problem-increase-sharply-especially-among-democrats/">the United States</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights2017.php">Our study</a> runs contrary to that argument. Among nations surveyed in the Americas Barometer, Mexico ranks fourth in terms of the negative impact of skin-tone on an individual’s wealth, behind Bolivia, Uruguay and Ecuador. </p>
<p>On the relationship between race and lower levels of education, Mexico moves up one spot to trail only Ecuador and Trinidad and Tobago. Indeed, the sole place in the Americas where people of color seem to fare worse overall than in Mexico is Ecuador, where Americas Barometer data shows that having dark skin reduces educational achievement by one year more than it does in Mexico. </p>
<p>This is in stark contrast to countries like Chile and Costa Rica, where race appears to have only a minor impact on wealth and education. </p>
<p>Our analysis unambiguously disprove the notion that Mexico is somehow so mixed race – so mestizo – as to be race-blind. Quite to the contrary: Racism is <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/06/29/mexico/1498692599_341796.html">a severe social challenge</a> that people in society and government would do well to take more seriously. </p>
<p>Going forward, our research will focus on examining the origins of this problem, from employer discrimination to access to health care. That should help lawmakers design policies to reduce inequalities based on skin color.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Zizumbo Colunga collaborates with the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iván Flores Martínez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mexico may celebrate its mixed-race heritage, but a new study shows that racism is powerful there. Darker-skinned Mexicans earn less and finish fewer years of schooling than white citizens.Daniel Zizumbo-Colunga, Assistant Professor of Drug Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia (CIDE) and Research Assistant Professor, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/860402017-11-08T11:17:11Z2017-11-08T11:17:11ZAs angry voters reject major parties, Mexico’s 2018 presidential race grows chaotic<p>Mexico’s 2018 campaign season has not officially begun, but the race for the presidency is already a nail-biter, featuring a powerful ruling party, dozens of independent aspirants – <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/nacion/politica/2016/10/16/zavala-da-la-bienvenida-anaya-rumbo-al-2018">including two women</a> – and very strange bedfellows. </p>
<p>In my two decades analyzing Mexican elections as both an <a href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/pyg/v23n2/1665-2037-pyg-23-02-00243-en.pdf">academic</a> and a pollster, I have never seen such a crowded and unstable presidential field this early on. </p>
<p>For years, the country’s three mainstream parties have seen <a href="http://consulta.mx/index.php/estudios-e-investigaciones/elecciones-mexico/item/765-identidad-partidista-baja">falling support</a>. Now alternatives are popping up left and right, fracturing old alliances and creating new ones. Sometimes, more options are good for democracy. Other times, they portend chaos. </p>
<p>So is Mexico’s democracy thriving or struggling?</p>
<h2>Mergers and defections</h2>
<p>The first sign of trouble in this presidential campaign season came on Sept. 5, when the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party <a href="http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/pan-prd-y-mc-presentan-el-frente-ciudadano-por-mexico.html">struck an unusual deal</a> with a conservative rival, the National Action Party, and the smaller Citizen’s Movement. The three parties would join forces to run a single candidate under the banner of the so-called “<a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2017/11/05/1199271">Citizen’s Front for Mexico</a>.”</p>
<p>While acknowledging that their coalition is ideologically incoherent, party leaders hope that the Citizen’s Front will seem like a palatable alternative to the <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/12/world/la-fg-mexico-pri-comeback-20120612">ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party</a>, or PRI – Mexico’s oldest political party. The beleaguered PRI, which has a 20 percent approval rating and has not yet nominated its candidate for 2018, denounced the Citizen’s Front as illegal and <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/impugna-pri-creacion-del-frente-ciudadano-ante-el-tepjf">sought an injunction</a> against it. </p>
<p>Reactions across the political spectrum were equally strong. <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-mexico-a-firebrand-leftist-provokes-the-powers-that-be-including-donald-trump-78918">Andrés Manuel López Obrador</a>, a populist former Mexico City mayor and ex-member of both the PRI and the rival Democratic Revolutionary Party, denounced the Front as a <a href="http://www.proceso.com.mx/502953/frente-ciudadano-simulacion-preservar-regimen-corrupcion-amlo">stunt</a>. </p>
<p>López Obrador, who is now making his third presidential run – this time as leader of the left-leaning Morena Party, which he <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/07/morena-mexico-obrador-df-nieto-pri-oaxaca">founded</a> after splitting from the Democratic Revolutionary Party in 2014 – is also angling for the anti-PRI vote. With the election still nine months away, this consummate insider <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-mexico-a-firebrand-leftist-provokes-the-powers-that-be-including-donald-trump-78918">rebranded as a disruptive outsider</a> is <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article149708314.html">currently favored to win</a>.</p>
<p>Resistance to the Citizen’s Front was fierce even within participating parties. In one spectacular retort, Margarita Zavala, a 33-year National Action Party veteran and wife of former president Felipe Calderón, <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/10/margarita-zavala-renuncia-pan-anaya/">quit the party</a> to run for president as an independent. </p>
<p>Zavala’s defection was unexpected but understandable. People were <a href="https://www.forbes.com.mx/margarita-zavala-quiere-ser-la-primera-mujer-presidenta-en-2018/">already buzzing</a> that she could become <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/manuel-hernndez-borbolla/tiene-margarita-zavala-los-meritos-suficientes-para-ser-preside_a_21622843/">Mexico’s first viable female presidential candidate</a>. </p>
<p>Without the National Action Party, or PAN, her odds of winning against López Obrador <a href="https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/opinion/Que-pretende-Margarita-Zavala-20171009-0129.html">seem longer</a>, but early <a href="http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/salida-del-pan-de-margarita-manda-al-frente-al-tercer-lugar.html">polling</a> is fairly promising. Zavala could come in second, stealing some of the Citizen’s Front base and bumping its candidate into third place but leaving López Obrador his eight-point lead.</p>
<h2>A crowded field</h2>
<p>Zavala is not the only independent throwing her hat in the ring for 2018. To date, <a href="http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2017/10/14/se-registran-59-aspirantes-independientes-a-la-presidencia-9350.html">dozens</a> of people without national party affiliations have preregistered to run next July. </p>
<p>Politicians likely to make the cut include Jaime “el Bronco” Rodriguez, the cowboy boot-wearing <a href="http://www.milenio.com/politica/jaime_rodriguez-el_bronco-candidato_independiente-presidencia-ine-milenio_0_1043895656.html">governor of Nuevo León state</a>, and Armando Ríos Piter, a <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2017/10/05/1192523">centrist senator</a> from Guerrero state who has <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2017/05/08/esta-es-la-razon-por-la-que-castaneda-ve-a-rios-piter-como-el-ma_a_22076246/">drawn comparisons</a> with French President Emmanuel Macron. </p>
<p>The crowded field of independents might also include another woman: María del Jesús Patricio, <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2017/10/08/1193212">nominee of the National Indigenous Council</a>.</p>
<p>These presidential aspirants must still overcome several hurdles to get on the ballot, among them gathering 850,000 <a href="https://www.ine.mx/actores-politicos/candidatos-independientes/">signatures</a> across 17 of Mexico’s 33 states. As of today none is quite <a href="https://twitter.com/segasi/status/927229201287122944">on track</a> to do so. </p>
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<p>But even if the 2018 campaign turns out to be an eight-person horse race – three big-tent coalitions each running one consensus candidate, plus the top five independents – recent <a href="http://www.buendiaylaredo.com/publicaciones/431/Reporte_Independientes_Nac.pdf">surveys</a> still put López Obrador just barely out in front. </p>
<h2>A continental perspective</h2>
<p>Shifting coalitions and independent candidacies are a new phenomenon in Mexico, a relatively young democracy that was ruled by one party – the PRI – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-election-pri/chronology-checkered-history-of-the-pris-rule-in-mexico-idUSBRE85R12C20120628">for most of the 20th century</a>. </p>
<p>But traditional political systems elsewhere in Latin America have long since splintered under similar pressures, sometimes with devastating results. In Venezuela and Peru in the 1990s, for example, plummeting public support for long-established parties ushered in the rise of two “disruptive” outsiders, Hugo Chávez and <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Legacy-of-a-Dictator-Alberto-Fujimoris-Long-Lasting-Impact-20160407-0032.html">Alberto Fujimori</a>. </p>
<p>Both won the presidency with a strong mandate <a href="http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/fellows/venezuela0803/2.html">to upend democratic institutions</a>, and neither party system has fully recovered from the violent upheaval and power grabs that followed. </p>
<p>Such was the disruption that in Peru’s 2016 presidential race, <a href="http://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-peru-2016-estos-son-los-candidatos-a-la-presidencia-noticia-951234">10 “parties”</a> – some of them less than a year old – competed in the first round after a long stretch of political instability. Meanwhile, Venezuela has, in effect, <a href="https://theconversation.com/venezuelas-opposition-is-on-the-verge-of-collapse-86187">just one party</a> today: the authoritarian regime of Nicolás Maduro. </p>
<p>That’s because political fragmentation creates the potential for <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/8402589/latin_american_voter">political gridlock and social instability</a>. Convulsions in party systems like those brewing in Mexico blur the lines connecting voter choice to politician behavior. </p>
<p>This deteriorates <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-031710-103823">already diffuse</a> electoral accountability: When parties appear and disappear at random, and outsiders promise to “disrupt” the system, citizens are hard-pressed to correctly identify which party will act in their best interest.</p>
<p>In the worst case scenario, these shifts can lead to the collapse of democracy itself. </p>
<h2>Party system collapse?</h2>
<p>In my assessment, there’s a chance that the Mexican politics could meet the same fate.</p>
<p>For a country’s citizens to <a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=16821">abandon their habitual parties en masse</a>, studies show, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2014.916690?journalCode=fdem20">three factors</a> must be in place: a huge corruption scandal involving a mainstream party; an electorate alienated by politics as usual; and a social crisis that diminishes support for the ruling government. </p>
<p>Mexico has all of these puzzle pieces in place. Under president Enrique Peña Nieto, the PRI has been plagued by <a href="https://theconversation.com/governors-gone-wild-mexico-faces-a-lost-generation-of-corrupt-leaders-76858">corruption</a> and <a href="http://aristeguinoticias.com/0911/mexico/la-casa-blanca-de-enrique-pena-nieto/">scandal</a>. Now, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/es/2017/08/15/odebrecht-mexico-emilio-lozoya-pemex-corrupcion/">Oderbrecht</a> bribery scheme – which has caused chaos in Brazil, <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-120-days-into-his-term-ecuadors-new-president-is-already-undoing-his-own-partys-legacy-85651">Ecuador</a> and Peru – is hitting Mexico, too. </p>
<p>Additionally, polling shows that voter identification with all three major parties has <a href="http://consulta.mx/index.php/estudios-e-investigaciones/elecciones-mexico/item/765-identidad-partidista-baja">eroded markedly</a> over the past decade. And as for a profound social crisis, how about the <a href="http://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2017/09/13/mexico-el-pais-donde-hay-mas-de-32-000-desaparecidos/">32,000 missing people</a> who’ve “disappeared” during the country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-murder-and-grief-mexicos-drug-war-turns-ten-70036">decade-long drug war</a>?</p>
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<p>In theory, then, Mexico could see its political system splinter in 2018. If López Obrador ekes out a plurality of the vote – say, 30 percent – and numerous other parties and independents split the rest, the president would have a weak mandate and questionable legitimacy. This would mean six years of political stalemate at best and system failure at worst. </p>
<p>Before I get too dire, there’s one critical backstop to party collapse in Mexico: the PRI itself. In the turbulent 1990s Argentina’s political system survived significant changes because the <a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=16821">well-branded Peronista Party</a> gave out goods and service to ensure that voters didn’t forget it at the polls. </p>
<p>The PRI is one of Latin America’s most powerful party machines. In that sense, its extensive <a href="https://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=18989">patronage networks</a> could have the unexpected upshot of protecting Mexican democracy. The PRI is ailing, but it has a long history of political survival. It’ll probably adapt to these tough times, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86040/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mexico’s 2018 presidential race hasn’t even begun, but it’s already a nail-biter, featuring two women, a left-wing firebrand, party defections, strange bedfellows and no small dose of scandal.Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/710672017-01-13T07:23:43Z2017-01-13T07:23:43ZHow will Mexico deal with The Donald?<p>What is Mexico’s plan for facing incoming US president Donald Trump, whose presidential campaign included heated <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-who-are-the-millions-of-bad-hombres-slated-for-us-deportation-68818">anti-Mexican rhetoric</a>? How is the country’s government preparing for threatened changes to the US-Mexico relationship in terms of policy, immigration and trade? </p>
<p>If they’re any insight into Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s strategy for the coming years, two key decisions in this realm have been disconcerting to say the least. </p>
<h2>Rolling out the red carpet</h2>
<p>The first, in August, was <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/01/opinions/donald-trump-pena-nieto-mexico-sanchez/">to invite</a> then-candidate Donald Trump to Mexico, responding to his hostility with conciliatory gestures and goodwill. </p>
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<p>The results were not good. Rather than moderating his views, Trump jumped on the occasion to imply that the Mexican president actually supported his positions. After the meeting with Peña Nieto, in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/us/politics/donald-trump-mexico.html?_r=0">speech</a> made later that night in Phoenix, Arizona, Trump told supporters: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’ve just landed having returned from a very important and special meeting with the president of Mexico, a man I like and respect very much. […] We will build a great wall along the southern border. And Mexico will pay for the wall. One hundred percent. They don’t know it yet, but they’re going to pay for it. And they’re great people and great leaders but they’re going to pay for the wall. We will use the best technology, including above and below ground sensors that’s the tunnels….Towers, aerial surveillance and manpower to supplement the wall, find and dislocate tunnels and keep out criminal cartels and Mexico you know that, will work with us. I really believe it. Mexico will work with us. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This episode did not play out well in Mexico. According to the <a href="http://gruporeforma-blogs.com/encuestas/?p=6642">Reforma newspaper</a>, 81% of Mexicans disagreed with Trump’s visit. The daily <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/nacion/politica/2016/09/12/fue-una-mala-decision-invitar-trump-encuesta">El Universal found</a> that 74% of citizens felt offended that the government had invited him to Mexico.</p>
<p>The stunt also ended badly for <a href="http://www.proceso.com.mx/453319/reunion-pena-trump-fue-idea-videgaray-revelan-video">its mastermind</a>, Luis Videgaray, a <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-ties-emerge-between-mexico-government-and-builder-1418344492">scandal-tainted</a> confidante of president Peña Nieto since his days as governor of the State of Mexico (2005-2011); he was forced to resign his post as Secretary of Treasury. </p>
<p>The Mexican government’s second move to prepare for Trump, just a few days ago, was to <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2016/09/01/1114523">sack</a> Secretary of Foreign Relations Claudia Claudia Ruíz Massieu. Mexico’s top diplomat for only 16 months, she had recently shown herself <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mexicos-top-diplomat-calls-trumps-policies-ignorant-and-racist/2016/02/27/fabbb5f0-dd65-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html?utm_term=.b2cba2585bbb">reluctant to work</a> with Trump. So, on the eve of the inauguration, Peña Nieto decided to put in her place <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-ties-emerge-between-mexico-government-and-builder-1418344492">none other than Luis Videgaray</a>.</p>
<p>Given the new secretary’s admitted lack of international diplomacy experience, the press has <a href="http://fusion.net/story/378869/mexicos-president-extends-olive-branch-to-trump-with-new-foreign-minister-pick/">speculated</a> that his alleged relationship with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is his main “qualification” for the job. <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/nacion/politica/2017/01/5/videgaray-regresa-mas-fuerte-gabinete">Some commentators</a> are also suggesting that this high-profile appointment reveals Videgaray as Peña Nieto’s preferred Revolutionary Institutional Party successor for the presidency in 2018. </p>
<h2>Why not play a two-level game?</h2>
<p>So what’s going on here? And what does it mean for Mexico, just days away from four years of President Donald Trump? </p>
<p>To start with, it shows that the Mexican government does not, for whatever reason, find it necessary to correct its course or to recruit new personnel in order to regain some of the <a href="https://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/why-mexicos-image-failing">credibility it has lost</a> both nationally and internationally. </p>
<p>In this delicate moment, when Mexico will require the talent and experience of the best men and women its foreign service has to offer, the president’s most recent appointment leaves no doubt: Luis Videgaray is Mexico’s response to Donald Trump. The man is the policy. </p>
<p>Here the government has squandered an opportunity to take diplomatic advantage of the Mexican people’s disregard for Trump to strengthen the relative power of Los Pinos, Mexico’s presidential palace, vis-a-vis the White House. </p>
<p>As Robert Putnam outlined in his <a href="http://www.guillaumenicaise.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Putnam-The-Logic-of-Two-Level-Games.pdf">classic study</a> on diplomacy, domestic and international politics can interact as a “two-level game”. Just as external events and pressures can help impel national policies, governments can also leverage internal pressure to strengthen their stance in foreign negotiations. </p>
<p>That is, Peña Nieto could have used Mexicans’ repudiation of Trump to place hard and very credible limits on what Mexico will – and won’t – accept from the US going forward. But he didn’t do it. Picking a figure so friendly toward his American counterpart, and <a href="http://gruporeforma-blogs.com/encuestas/?p=6988">so disliked at home</a>, Mexico’s president missed his chance to put domestic discontent to good use. Instead, he made the government even more vulnerable. </p>
<p>Finally, there’s the issue of the so-called “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Changing-Politics-Foreign-Policy/dp/0333754239/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1484119688&sr=8-1&keywords=The+changing+politics+of+foreign+policy">constituencies of foreign policy</a>”. In reiterating his position of collaborating instead of confronting, Peña Nieto turned his back on a multitude of potential American allies of Mexico’s cause. </p>
<p>Numerous American <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/27/us/houses-of-worship-poised-to-serve-as-trump-era-immigrant-sanctuaries">churches</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4578847/sanctuary-city-mayors-donald-trump-immigration/">cities</a> and <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/11/21/college-presidents-call-continuation-obama-administration-program-protecting">universities</a> have declared that they will defend undocumented immigrants. There are <a href="http://naresearchpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Competitive-Border-Communities_-Final-Report-HR.pdf">border states</a> whose economies are deeply integrated with Mexico’s and <a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/16/13641944/trump-nafta-mexico-canada-recession-trade-warren-sanders-tpp">industries</a> that would collapse without NAFTA. And hundreds of <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/01/news/economy/mexico-peso-money-transfer-trump-remittance/">communities and hometown associations</a> send remittances to Mexico. Peña Nieto’s government could coordinate with these actors to look after their shared interests and present a united front against Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant, anti-NAFTA agenda. </p>
<p>Instead of building relationships and alliances, however, Peña Nieto’s administration seems determined to isolate itself – to give up. It’s as if the only constituency for Mexican foreign policy were one person: The Donald.</p>
<p>The threat that Trump represents to Mexico is, or could be, an extraordinary platform for demonstrating political leadership. But based on the disquieting decisions that President Peña Nieto has made thus far, it is impossible not to ask: who is Mexico’s government working for?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Bravo Regidor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant, anti-NAFTA rhetoric has targeted Mexico and Mexicans.Carlos Bravo Regidor, Associate Professor, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/677572016-11-04T07:37:47Z2016-11-04T07:37:47ZDear Donald Trump, this is what a rigged election looks like<p>Throughout the 2016 campaign, Republican Party nominee Donald Trump has consistently claimed the US election will be rigged. Trump has said he will accept the outcome of the vote on November 8, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/21/us/politics/campaign-election-trump-clinton.html">if he wins</a>. But he has not confirmed whether he will accept a Hillary Clinton victory as valid.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/can-you-rig-a-us-presidential-election-experts-say-its-basically-impossible/2016/10/18/7bcc4390-9557-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html">Experts agree</a> that it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hard-is-it-to-rig-an-election-67374">almost impossible to rig a US election</a> due to the complex, distributed electoral system, and the sheer number of people involved in overseeing it. </p>
<p>But that’s not the case everywhere. In many parts of the world, ballot boxes are routinely stuffed, opposition parties silenced and voters intimidated. </p>
<p>The Conversation asked scholars from countries where electoral fraud has happened, from Kazakhstan to Mexico, to explain what a rigged election really looks like. </p>
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<h2>Kazakhstan</h2>
<p>Kazakhstan is a long way from the centre of the global politics. It is largely known for British comedian Sacha Baron Cohen’s Kazakhstani alter-ego, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20161028-what-kazakhstan-really-thought-of-borat">Borat</a>, as well as the vast amounts of oil it produces, or perhaps its nuclear weapons <a href="http://thebulletin.org/kazakhstans-nuclear-ambitions">withdrawal in the 1990s</a>. </p>
<p>But there is a connection between the Republican nominee and the Central Asian oil state: the Financial Times has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/33285dfa-9231-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923">published an investigation</a> into links between ex-officials of Kazakhstan and the building of Trump Tower.</p>
<p>Kazakhstan does hold elections: to local authorities, to the lower chamber, to the parliament and to the presidency. In theory, we are not an absolute kingdom or <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0263493022000010062?journalCode=ccas20">khanate</a>. At least not yet.</p>
<p>But the elections that take place are often rigged. Elections are held not to provide the people with representatives, but to create a façade of democracy for the West. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe regularly observes elections in Kazakhstan, and its reports are damning. In their assessment of the 2015 presidential election, <a href="http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/174811?download=true">observers stated</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Serious procedural deficiencies and irregularities were observed throughout the voting, counting and tabulation processes, including indications of ballot box stuffing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a result, the ruling party, Nur Otan, won <a href="http://www.rferl.org/a/qishloq-ovozi-kazakhstan-parliamentary-elections-analysis/27626143.html">81% of the parliamentary vote</a> in 2016, and President Nursultan Nazarbayev won with <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/28/world/asia/nursultan-a-nazarbayev-kazakhstan-re-elected.html">97.7% of the vote</a> in the 2016 presidential election. </p>
<p>The current president doesn’t participate in TV debates. The <a href="http://www.parlam.kz/en/constitution#_Toc150237531">constitution</a>, meanwhile, conveniently states that presidents can only serve two terms – except the first president. Nazarbayev has been in power since 1989, and was elected the country’s first president following Kazakh independence in 1991.</p>
<p>In addition to fraud on election day, parliaments are <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/russian/reports/kazakh/1999/october/topic11.html">often dissolved</a> or declare voluntary dissolution. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that the people of Kazakhstan have lost trust in the electoral system. But still we have hopes for honest elections in the future. </p>
<h2>Gabon</h2>
<p>A self-fulfilling prophecy, Gabon’s presidential election on 27 August 2016 resulted in chaos. After the proclamation of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/24/gabon-court-rules-president-ali-bongo-rightful-winner-of-september-election">victory of incumbent president Ali Bongo</a> with <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/10/africa/gabon-election-ping-court-challenge/">49.8% of the vote</a>, over his rival, Jean Ping, who had 48.2%, the country descended into serious riots. </p>
<p>The National Assembly was partially burned, shops were looted, barricades were set up. Throughout the country, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37252778">1,000 people were arrested</a>; the headquarters of Jean Ping were attacked by security forces and three people were killed in the capital, Libreville.</p>
<p>This violence was a reaction to the insurmountable paradox of the Gabonese state. It showed how fed up Gabonese people had become, having been confronted yet again by routine systemic fraud, which is understood locally as “electoral adjustment”. This is at its worst in the region of Haut-Ogouué, Bongo’s family’s stronghold, where turn-out was a suspicious 99.9%. </p>
<p>The riots have highlighted the lack of transparency in the electoral process and the widespread hatred for Bongo. </p>
<h2>Malaysia</h2>
<p>In Malaysia, general elections have been rigged since the 1970s, through <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00358533.2013.857146">gerrymandering and malapportionment</a>, to keep the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional (BN), in power. This is mainly done by the Electoral Commission, the body established to conduct the elections. The BN has not lost an election since independence.</p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-22422172">most recent general election</a>, in 2013, the opposition <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2013.857145?scroll=top&needAccess=true">won the popular vote</a> with 52% versus the BN’s 47%. But under the first-past-the-post system, this mean the opposition only held 40% of the seats in the Malaysian parliament and the BN was returned to power.</p>
<p>Several <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00358533.2013.857146?journalCode=ctrt20">academic studies</a> confirmed what is widely known: without the gerrymandering, the opposition would have won government with a clear parliamentary, as well as popular, majority.</p>
<p>After the result, the opposition organised mass rallies around the country, hoping to build a “<a href="https://www.academia.edu/7483939/Electoral_Reform_Movement_in_Malaysia_Emergence_Protests_and_Reform">people power</a>” movement to push out the government. In the first few weeks, thousands turned out for the rallies. But after three months, people were no longer interested in the rallies when it was clear the BN was unwilling to give up power. </p>
<p>Another significant factor was a lack of support from rural people. Most of the demonstrators were from the young, urban population. The biggest factor in voter apathy towards the rigged results was, simply, apathy and indifference. The BN’s long history, more than half of century, of rigging elections was now considered commonplace. In other words, the governing party’s cheating was considered “normal”. </p>
<p>Looking ahead, it will take a new generation of Malaysians to demand a fairer electoral system. Whether this will happen remains uncertain given the political culture. The rise of <a href="https://www.academia.edu/12016374/Malaysia_Pseudo-democracy_and_the_making_of_a_Malay-Islamic_State_James_Chin">political Islam</a> has added a complication – many Muslims who are disheartened by the present system are willing to consider an Islamic system to replace the current system.</p>
<h2>Mexico</h2>
<p>Electoral fraud has <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-fraud-accusations-may-hurt-his-endgame-just-ask-mexico-67687">not been a problem in Mexico</a> for many years. But that was not always the case. </p>
<p>Mexico’s 1988 presidential election is widely seen as fraudulent – both in terms of how the then-hegemonic party, the Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) outspent its two main competitors and in <a href="http://www.elsevier.es/es-revista-revista-mexicana-opinion-publica-109-articulo-elecciones-1988-mexico-crisis-del-S1870730014709044?redirectNew=true.">how the votes were counted and the results reported</a>. </p>
<p>Politicians from the PRI had won every senate, gubernatorial, and of course, presidential race since its founding in 1929, many of these with huge margins. But due to a severe economic crisis and painful economic restructuring in the decade of the 1980s, Mexican voters were angry at what they deemed a corrupt and inefficient system.</p>
<p>On the night of the 1988 elections, the district results began to flow in from district counting centres to the Federal Electoral Commission, then a non-autonomous federal agency whose head was the Minister of Governance, a position appointed by the president.</p>
<p>These first set of results did not favour the PRI’s presidential candidate, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, so the Secretary of Governance apparently made a decision to halt the reception of the results and reported that the FEC’s computer had gone down (<em>“se cayó el sistema”</em>), rendering it impossible to continue giving <a href="http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2008/07/03/index.php?section=politica&article=013n1pol.">preliminary vote counts</a>. </p>
<p>When the computer came back online several hours later, the PRI’s candidate was <a href="http://www.planeacionestrategica.net/comentarios-a-%20la-noticia/fraude-electoral-%20de-1988-%20en-mexico/.">declared the victor</a> with a majority of votes (50.36% versus 31.12% for the candidate of the left coalition and 17.07% for the center-right opponent). </p>
<p>Under Mexican electoral law at that time, the newly elected legislature had the right to determine whether the presidential elections were binding, and since the PRI won the majority in the House, Salinas was declared the victor. When opposition deputies claimed fraud and demanded that the presidential votes be recounted, the PRI majority (with many members of the center-right opposition party acceding) ordered the ballots to be burned, so it impossible to know who won the presidential election of 1988.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump is wrong: the US election can’t be rigged. But it’s a different story in Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Gabon and Mexico.Nygmet Ibadildin, Assistant Professor, KIMEP UniversityJames Chin, Director, Asia Institute & Prof of Political Science, University of TasmaniaJoseph Tonda, Professeur de sociologie et d'anthropologie, Université Omar Bongo (UOB)Joy Langston, Professor, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/667052016-10-13T06:11:13Z2016-10-13T06:11:13ZWhy is Mexico lagging so badly on human rights?<p>The international community began creating a <a href="http://www.ijrcenter.org/ihr-reading-room/overview-of-the-human-rights-framework/#THE_INTERNATIONAL_HUMAN_RIGHTSFRAMEWORK">framework for promoting and protecting human rights</a> 70 years ago. It’s efforts included the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and declarations or binding treaties specific to both Europe and the Americas. </p>
<p>In principle, this international human rights regime and the intense global activism around it <em>should</em> have had a positive and significant effect on the levels of respect for human rights around the world. Sadly, that hasn’t been the case.</p>
<h2>The case of Mexico</h2>
<p>The difference between a commitment to human rights and practical compliance is evident in the case of Mexico. Since the early 1990s, the human rights situation in the country has been closely scrutinised from abroad. </p>
<p>In 1994, the human rights situation in the country began to deteriorate in the context of the government’s response to the indigenous rebellion of the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-25550654"><em>Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional</em></a> (EZLN) in the southern state of Chiapas. The rebellion was characterised by the militarisation of indigenous territory, forced displacement and severe violations of human rights. Among the most significant was the execution of 45 civilians (mostly women and children) in the <a href="http://acteal.blogspot.mx/p/english.html">Acteal massacre</a>, perpetrated by a paramilitary group in the winter of 1997. </p>
<p>Ever since, human rights organs and regional bodies have produced many critical reports on the human rights situation in Mexico. And they have made more than <a href="http://recomendacionesdh.mx/inicio">2,000 concrete recommendations</a> about how to address it.</p>
<p>The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has decided against Mexico in many <a href="http://www.oas.org/en/iachr/decisions/merits.asp">individual cases</a> and has issued two reports <a href="http://www.oas.org/en/iachr/reports/country.asp">dealing especially with the country</a>. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights has adopted <a href="http://www.corteidh.or.cr/cf/Jurisprudencia2/busqueda_casos_contenciosos.cfm?lang=en">seven condemnatory rulings</a>. </p>
<p>Along with other expert groups, the Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts appointed by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights <a href="http://media.wix.com/ugd/3a9f6f_e1df5a84680a4a8a969bd45453da1e31.pdf">investigated</a> the disappearance of 43 students from Ayotzinapa teacher training college in Guerrero state in 2014. It found the government had not performed due diligence in its handling of the case. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/americas/mexico/report-mexico/">Amnesty International</a>, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2016/country-chapters/mexico">Human Rights Watch</a> and the <a href="https://www.wola.org/format/publication/?filter=true&s=&year=0&people=0&regions=mexico">Washington Office on Latin America</a>, among others, have persistently exerted pressure through campaigns, letters, and press releases. Then there are the many highly critical reports on rights violations from police torture to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2015/10/stop-torture-mexico/">Amnesty International has reported</a> that there were more than 2,400 torture complaints in the country in 2014, but no data to indicate that anyone was charged.</p>
<p>Despite the adoption of binding international legal commitments (Mexico has ratified all international human rights treaties) and enduring international pressure, the country has <a href="http://www.libreriacide.com/?P=producto&PRODfamily=libros&PRODclassification=82&PRODproduct=30#.V_0QHGdFCUk">not progressed</a> in its compliance with human rights norms.</p>
<h2>The compliance gap</h2>
<p>Why has this happened? Since the 1990s, <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100369430">international relations scholars</a> have paid close attention to the influence of international norms and transnational activism on the human rights practices of individual countries. </p>
<p>Their <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/international-relations-and-international-organisations/power-human-rights-international-norms-and-domestic-change">basic argument</a> used to be that through the effective distribution of reliable (and often shocking) information about human rights violations, advocates could persuade rights-violating governments to change their behaviour. </p>
<p>But as research has accumulated and evolved, we have come to a <a href="http://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/14319.html">different conclusion</a>. While transnational activism has had an influence on the adoption of commitments to human rights by all kinds of governments, the levels of compliance have <a href="http://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/28937/copyright/9781107028937_copyright_info.pdf">remained mostly unchanged</a>.</p>
<p>The gap between what nations sign up to with regard to human rights, and what they actually do in practice, is called the “compliance gap”.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141278/original/image-20161011-12017-ov8qca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141278/original/image-20161011-12017-ov8qca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141278/original/image-20161011-12017-ov8qca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141278/original/image-20161011-12017-ov8qca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141278/original/image-20161011-12017-ov8qca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141278/original/image-20161011-12017-ov8qca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141278/original/image-20161011-12017-ov8qca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Universal Declaration of Human Rights: worth the paper it’s written on?</span>
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</figure>
<p>Researchers have <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/428442">found</a> that compliance with international human rights norms <a href="http://press.georgetown.edu/book/georgetown/protecting-human-rights">does not depend</a> on the ratification of treaties, but on domestic institutional and social factors. These include regime type, the independence of the judiciary and <a href="http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/49/6/925.full.pdf+html">the strength of civil society</a>. </p>
<p>So now, we are interested in the desired but difficult transition from commitment to compliance, and on the conditions that might make this more likely.</p>
<h2>What makes a difference?</h2>
<p>Mexico is a highly globalised country, with aspirations of being part of the club of modern, democratic states.</p>
<p>It is a transitioning democracy with highly active civil society groups that have been mobilising and litigating in favour of human rights for a long time. All of these are conditions associated with a <a href="http://assets.cambridge.org/97805218/85102/copyright/9780521885102_copyright_info.pdf">higher likelihood of compliance</a> with international norms.</p>
<p>What, then, is causing the gap? Researchers are <a href="http://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/28937/copyright/9781107028937_copyright_info.pdf">now exploring</a> whether some domestic factors – including poor institutional capacities, such as insufficient, poorly trained and under-resourced police forces, criminal investigators, prosecutors or judges – have “blocked” the effects of otherwise positive human rights influences and conditions.</p>
<p>Another reason might be that international commitments and pressure have not worked the way they should, and have failed to generate the necessary will to change behaviour. </p>
<p>I am working on this precise area of research right now, and the results remain to be seen. But the most likely answer lies in the combination of both factors.</p>
<p>Mexican authorities have not tried very hard to alter the patterns that result in the systematic violation of human rights, and when they have, they’ve lacked the means necessary to achieve significant change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alejandro Anaya Muñoz receives funding from Mexico's National Council on Science and Technology, CONACYT. He is a member of the board of the Comisión Mexicana de Defensa y Promoción de los Derechos Humanos. </span></em></p>Mexico has signed every international human rights treaty, but abuses are still rife.Alejandro Anaya Muñoz, Professor, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/664622016-10-04T06:17:32Z2016-10-04T06:17:32ZIs that really how you see us? A Mexican response to US election season<p>During the 2012 US presidential election, Mexico – or rather, the idea of Mexico – wasn’t an issue. Romney and Obama may have mentioned it during discussions on immigration reform, the border separating the two countries, or drug policy, but this was in passing, offhand. </p>
<p>Mexico itself as a country was <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/debates.php">not a topic of conversation</a>. Back then, some of my compatriots <a href="http://expansion.mx/economia/2012/10/15/mexico-el-olvido-en-la-eleccion-e">lamented the irrelevance of Mexico</a> in the political platforms and public debates of their northern neighbour, sad to see that Mexico – <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/obama-romney-care-latin-america-mexico-brazil-cuba/story?id=17508488">indeed, seemingly all of Latin America</a> – had simply fallen off the US radar.</p>
<p>Looking back from 2016, maybe irrelevance wasn’t such a bad thing after all.</p>
<h2>Anti-Mexican sentiment</h2>
<p>Over the past year, Donald Trump has made anti-Mexican sentiment a primary driver of his presidential campaign. He has characterised Mexican immigrants as <a href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/06/25/exp-presidential-candidate-donald-trump-immigration-intv-erin.cnn">criminals and rapists</a> and proposed <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/jul/26/how-trump-plans-build-wall-along-us-mexico-border/">the construction of a border wall</a> that would stop “illegals” from entering the US. </p>
<p>He has threatened to <a href="http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Donald_Trump_Free_Trade.htm">roll back the North American Free Trade Agreement</a> (NAFTA) to stop Mexico and Mexicans from “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/615866741994954752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">killing us on jobs and trade</a>.” </p>
<p>Trump’s assertions aren’t just offensive - they’re also empirically wrong. On the connection between immigration and criminality, for example, it turns out immigrants are <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w13229">less likely</a> to commit crimes than those born in the US. In fact, immigration may actually <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/sp.2009.56.3.447">contribute to reducing crime rates</a> and have a <a href="http://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/dbassesite/documents/webpage/dbasse_174349.pdf">positive effect on economic growth</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, the supposedly unstoppable flow of “illegals” across the border has actually <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/20/what-we-know-about-illegal-immigration-from-mexico/">been declining</a> for several years. In fact, the migratory balance between Mexico and the United States is now negative: <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/">more people are returning to Mexico</a> than emigrating to the US. </p>
<p>But what about free trade? Well, it’s complicated, but factually, not all the benefit has <a href="http://cepr.net/documents/nafta-20-years-2014-02.pdf">gone to Mexico</a>. Nor are the bulk of US jobs lost since the 1990s attributable to NAFTA but rather to <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906.pdf">competition from China</a> and <a href="https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/nafta-20-misleading-charges-and-positive-achievements">other factors</a>. </p>
<h2>Lack of vision</h2>
<p>How Mexico is portrayed in and by the United States is, to me, a rich subject. </p>
<p>Mexico and the United States are profoundly integrated - the <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/growing-together-economic-ties-between-the-united-states-and-mexico">depth</a> and <a href="https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf">intensity of the ties</a> that bind the two countries are unarguable. But the everyday experience of this relationship stands in stark contrast with the way many Mexicans and Americans still see each other, more through their alleged “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40204191?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">civilisational differences” than through their actual common history</a>. </p>
<p>North America might be many things — a geographic expression, a commercial bloc, a cultural laboratory — but it is not, alas, what Walter Lippman called “<a href="http://xroads.virginia.edu/%7Ehyper/lippman/ch01.html">a picture inside our heads</a>”. Data abounds on the actual existence of North America as real place, but Mexico and America nonetheless lack a vision to provide it with meaning, a story to make it intelligible to average citizens in both countries. </p>
<p>In other words, North America is a big phenomenon without a narrative to speak for it. </p>
<p>On the other side of the Atlantic, there has been, as part and parcel of their process of integration, an idea of Europe. But on this side of the Atlantic, there’s been no such effort. We have lacked the intellectual and cultural infrastructure to know how to think of ourselves as belonging to a region that is larger than the sum of its national parts. </p>
<p>The absence of this North American narrative has paved the way for someone like Donald Trump to mobilise anti-Mexican sentiments among sectors of the American populace who feel threatened by diversity, for whom Mexico and Mexicans have become scapegoats for their economic and cultural anxieties.</p>
<h2>Vacuum of political leadership</h2>
<p>But beyond xenophobia, the fact that Trump’s attacks have gone mostly unchallenged shows an alarming vacuum of political leadership on an issue of critical importance to both countries. Apparently, the North American project has no one to champion it anymore. </p>
<p>As Roberto Suro observed recently at a binational seminar at the <a href="https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/portalcolef/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/PROGRAMA_Seminario-27-y-28-de-septiembre-El-Colef-21.09.2016_10.59h.pdf"><em>Colegio de la Frontera Norte</em> in Tijuana</a>, there has not been a clear and strong response to openly defend NAFTA – not in the Republican party, certainly, but neither have Democrats, the Mexican government, civil society organisations on either side of the border, or the Mexican-American community responded to the attacks. </p>
<p>Trump’s falsehoods have been met, largely, with silence. </p>
<p>This, despite the fact that most Americans <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/22/us/politics/who-hates-trade-treaties-surprisingly-not-voters.html?_r=0">don’t seem to agree</a> with Trump’s tirades against free trade, or even with his anti-Mexican rhetoric. Though public opinion of the United States’ neighbour to the south saw a gradual decline between 2005 and 2013, in the past three years <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/1624/perceptions-foreign-countries.aspx">Mexico’s image has been slightly on the rise</a>.</p>
<p>In that sense, whatever happens in November, Donald Trump has already won. His campaign has successfully hushed the voices that could have spoken about the actual benefits of NAFTA. </p>
<p>In previous electoral cycles, immigration reform was still a matter of proposals and debate; after Trump, it’s become such a toxic subject that it is simply no longer on the table. In all likelihood, the reputation of Mexico in American public opinion will go down again, as will NAFTA. </p>
<p>In the end, Trump has brought anti-Mexican sentiment into the political mainstream and shown how electorally profitable it can be. </p>
<p>Let us not entertain false hopes: this phenomenon is not going to go away after November. Even if Hillary Clinton is the next president of the United States, Trumpism - with or without Trump - will be a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Bravo Regidor has received funding from the Mexican government's National Council for Science and Technology, Fullbright, Ford, Hewlett and from the Carso Center for the Study of Mexican History. None of these grants are current nor relevant for the subject matter of this article.</span></em></p>The facts contradict Donald Trump’s anti-Mexican rhetoric, but US mischaracterisation of its southern neighbor isn’t new to this election season - nor will it end in November.Carlos Bravo Regidor, Associate Professor, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/652042016-09-30T01:18:25Z2016-09-30T01:18:25ZHow trade and immigration are colliding with our two-party system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139794/original/image-20160929-27047-jq8q7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are drawbridge issues challenging our two-party system?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/en/door-goal-drawbridge-castle-1022148/">pixabay.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, much interest is focused on what The Economist calls <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21702748-new-divide-rich-countries-not-between-left-and-right-between-open-and">drawbridge politics</a>. </p>
<p>Voters who believe in leaving the drawbridge down, so to speak, see opportunities in open borders for immigrants and trade. Voters who believe in pulling the drawbridge up see these as threats. </p>
<p>During the first presidential debate, on Sept. 26, Donald Trump <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/us/politics/transcript-debate.html?_r=0">said</a>, “NAFTA is the worst trade deal, maybe ever signed anywhere.”</p>
<p>Free trade skeptics such as <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/trump-win-is-the-only-way-to-stop-tpp-catastrophe">Trump</a> and <a href="https://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/the-trans-pacific-trade-tpp-agreement-must-be-defeated?inline=file">Bernie Sanders</a> view imports from low-cost production countries as a menace to American jobs.</p>
<p>Isolationists, nationalists and ethnocentrists seek to protect the nation from immigrants, foreign dilution, terrorism and other threats, real or imagined. As my <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.00268/abstract">research shows</a>, the relationship between party politics and these emerging issues is fraught with problems.</p>
<p>Global issues such as these are gaining importance, in contrast to the more familiar tax-and-spend issues. The fact that they cut across the traditional left-right political spectrum makes them unsettling. There are deep schisms within both the Democratic and Republican parties on issues of migration, and especially trade. This shift is making it harder for voters to know which political party will best represent their views. </p>
<h2>Big tent parties</h2>
<p>Popular sentiments against immigrants and imports can easily be fueled by the democratic process. Politicians have strong incentives to play on the fears of voters and blame external forces such as trading partners and immigrants for the perceived vulnerability of the nation.</p>
<p>This “democratic nationalism” is fanned by a vigorous media intent on <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/26/immigration-officers-endorse-trump-over-clintons-radical-plan-for-open-borders/">exploiting voter fears</a>. While democratic nationalism affects many Western countries, it seems to be especially prominent in the U.S. Why is that so?</p>
<p>A clue is in the party system. </p>
<p>The U.S. has had “big tent” or “catch-all” political parties for much of its existence. They are two broad mainstream parties, each capturing a wide variety of opinion on all kinds of issues. Big tent parties had an easier time consolidating views among their members and producing unified platforms during the 20th century, when the focus was on domestic questions of social welfare and redistribution versus deregulation and market freedoms.</p>
<p>However, when the issues shift to drawbridge topics like immigration and trade, the parties are less stable. Like a sticky weathervane, they are buffeted by crosswinds in which party members who are poles apart cannot unite behind a single policy. Within the Democratic Party, the left of the party is <a href="https://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/the-trans-pacific-trade-tpp-agreement-must-be-defeated?inline=file">opposed to free trade</a> because of the effect on workers. Within the Republican Party, the right is <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/immigration-reform">opposed to immigration</a> because of the effect on national security, jobs and public services. For different reasons, both of these groups want the drawbridge up.</p>
<p>In the center are drawbridge-down politicians across both parties. On the Democratic side, they include President Obama and Hillary Clinton, prior to the current campaign. On the Republican side, they include most members of Congress, who voted in <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/confused-coalitions-republicans-democrats-free-trade-14257">overwhelming numbers</a> in favor of the many trade agreements the U.S. has signed since 2001. On questions of trade, drawbridge-down politicians - across both parties - have more in common with each other than with anti-free trade members of their own party.</p>
<h2>Effects of global issues</h2>
<p>Fear of trade and immigration affects big tent parties in at least three ways.</p>
<p>First, politicians who believe in pulling the drawbridge up run for office in big tent parties because they have little chance of being elected if they run in small nonmainstream parties. For example, in the 2014 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, small parties gained upwards of 20 percent of the votes in <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014#Election_results">some districts</a>. Yet, they ended up with zero seats. If you actually want to be elected to Congress, your chances are better if you run as Republican or Democrat, whatever your views on immigration and trade.</p>
<p>Second, because big tent parties contain politicians with a wide variety of ideological positions on trade and migration, debate within the parties is a lot more polarized than it would be otherwise. Highly divergent opinion is destabilizing because it makes the process of forming policy on international issues more difficult. </p>
<p>Third, there is a lot of leeway for candidates to change positions during the course of campaigns without renouncing party affiliation, as Hillary Clinton <a href="http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Hillary_Clinton_Free_Trade.htm">has done</a> on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Sensing a shift in public opinion, her instincts led her to reject TPP.</p>
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<h2>Drawbridge politics in Europe</h2>
<p>Like the U.S., we can see the impact of political parties on drawbridge politics in the United Kingdom, which also has a two-party system with the Labour and Conservative parties. In my 2004 <a href="https://books.google.com.mx/books?id=WMfLHkzKSRkC&pg=PR3&lpg=PR3&dq=aspinwall+rethinking+britain+manchester+university+press&source=bl&ots=Jo95pvpLiN&sig=CxVHIfmMZWk67864nErwkQqJA9Q&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjmr5az8YTPAhXDFj4KHUGsDxoQ6AEIIzAC#v=onepage&q=aspinwall%20rethinking%20britain%20manchester%20university%20press&f=false">book on U.K. policy</a> toward the European Union, I showed how the two main parties contain politicians with highly divergent positions on European integration, and how that creates headaches for party leaders. </p>
<p>The most recent example is David Cameron. The EU was blamed for high levels of immigration in the U.K., which anti-immigrant politicians exploited. Many of these anti-immigrant politicians are members of the Conservative Party, precisely because of the electoral incentives mentioned above. In an effort to settle the question of British membership of the EU, he put the issue to a referendum. Several prominent members of his own party, notably Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, campaigned to leave, despite his own position that Britain should remain a member. </p>
<p>The U.K., like the U.S., struggles with the politics of immigration and trade in part because its big-tent parties are themselves so divided and polarized. Back home in the U.S., as issues of immigration and trade become more relevant to national debate, big tent parties will increasingly contribute to confusion and polarization among voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Aspinwall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Debate over trade and immigration have caused rifts within parties this year. An international relations expert explains how these global issues will continue to challenge our two-party system.Mark Aspinwall, Professor of International Relations, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.