tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/fundacao-getulio-vargas-2100/articlesFundação Getulio Vargas2021-10-21T12:44:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1703322021-10-21T12:44:36Z2021-10-21T12:44:36ZBolsonaro faces ‘crimes against humanity’ charge over COVID-19 mishandling: 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427628/original/file-20211020-18921-1915pjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C91%2C5551%2C3609&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Reckless policies are to blame for Brazil's high death toll.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaro-gestures-during-the-news-photo/1235980576?adppopup=true">Evaristo Sa/AFP via Getty Image</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A Brazilian <a href="https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-crime-pandemics-homicide-covid-19-pandemic-1a1f8bf555e837c16dcfeaec111a7d3e">congressional panel has recommended</a> that President Jair Bolsonaro be charged with “crimes against humanity” over his alleged bungling of the country’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/world/americas/bolsonaro-covid-19-brazil.html">near-1,200 page report</a>, formally presented on Oct. 20, 2021, holds Bolsonaro culpable for worsening a crisis that has to date killed some 600,000 Brazilians, outlining how his <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-senator-says-bolsonaro-never-wanted-covid-19-vaccines-preferred-herd-2021-05-22/">failed policies</a> allowed the virus to spread among the population. The president denies any wrongdoing.</p>
<p>An earlier draft had called for Bolsonaro to be indicted for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/world/americas/bolsonaro-covid-19-brazil.html">homicide and genocide</a> as well, given how the ravages of the coronavirus have <a href="https://theconversation.com/judge-orders-brazil-to-protect-indigenous-people-from-ravages-of-covid-19-142356">disproportionately hit Brazil’s Indigenous groups</a>. But those charges were dropped from the final report.</p>
<p>Since the beginning of the pandemic, The Conversation’s authors have been chronicling the crisis in Brazil – and Bolsonaro’s role in letting it happen.</p>
<h2>1. In bad company</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro certainly doesn’t stand alone among world leaders when it comes to mishandling a health crisis that has now lasted more than 18 months. But he is one of the worst, according to a panel of scholars who put together <a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-worst-pandemic-leaders-5-presidents-and-prime-ministers-who-badly-mishandled-covid-19-159787">a rogues gallery of presidents and prime ministers</a> who stand accused of letting down their population.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://eaesp.fgv.br/en/faculty/elize-massard-fonseca">Elize Massard da Fonseca</a>, at Fundação Getulio Vargas, and <a href="https://sph.umich.edu/faculty-profiles/greer-scott.html">Scott L. Greer</a>, at University of Michigan, explained, the Brazilian president didn’t just fail to respond, he actively worsened the crisis.</p>
<p>“Bolsonaro used his <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.11927713.29">constitutional powers to interfere in</a> the Health Ministry’s administrative matters, such as clinical protocols, data disclosure and vaccine procurement. He <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">vetoed legislation</a> that would have both mandated the use of masks in religious sites and compensated health professionals permanently harmed by the pandemic, for example. And he obstructed state government efforts to promote social distancing and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">used his decree power to allow many businesses to remain open as ‘essential,’</a> including spas and gyms,” Massard da Fonseca and Greer write. But it doesn’t end there: “Bolsonaro also aggressively <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">promoted unproven medicines</a>, notably hydroxychloroquine, to treat COVID-19 patients.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-worst-pandemic-leaders-5-presidents-and-prime-ministers-who-badly-mishandled-covid-19-159787">World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19</a>
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<h2>2. Testing positive</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro backed up his disdain for masks and social distancing with personal action. While the virus spread throughout the early months of the pandemic, he could be seen pressing the flesh with supporters and campaigning without a face covering. He duly got COVID-19 in July 2020. As <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/anthony-pereira">Anthony Pereira</a>, at King’s College London, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-has-coronavirus-what-it-could-mean-for-him-politically-142232">wrote</a>: “The most surprising thing about Jair Bolsonaro’s positive test for coronavirus … was how long it took to happen.”</p>
<p>It could have been a pivotal moment; Bolsonaro could have used his personal experience to stress the risks of catching the virus and doubled down on efforts to contain the spread. He didn’t. Instead, he took hydroxychloroquine – an anti-malarial drug that has been found to have <a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or">no beneficial effects</a> in combating COVID-19 and which health experts warn could instead cause harm.</p>
<p>Worse, he “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">tried to push the drug</a> on state health services, despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-no-proof-these-anti-malarial-drugs-prevent-novel-coronavirus-in-humans-134703">concerns over its uses</a>.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-has-coronavirus-what-it-could-mean-for-him-politically-142232">Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro has coronavirus – what it could mean for him politically</a>
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<h2>3. Accused of genocide</h2>
<p>Of course, Bolsonaro had the benefit of having access to the best health care available in Brazil. Many, many others were not so fortunate.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.binghamton.edu/lacas/people/profile.html?id=nadia.rubaii">Nadia Rubaii</a>, co-director of the Institute for Genocide and Mass Atrocity Prevention and a professor at Binghamton University, and <a href="https://www.jota.info/autor/julio-jose-araujo-junior">Julio José Araujo Junior</a>
of Rio de Janeiro State University, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-bolsonaro-has-covid-19-and-so-do-thousands-of-indigenous-people-who-live-days-from-the-nearest-hospital-141506">note</a>: “Most of Brazil’s roughly <a href="http://www.funai.gov.br/index.php/indios-no-brasil/o-brasil-indigena-ibge">896,000 Indigenous people live in the Amazon region</a>, where the nearest hospital may be days away by boat and offer <a href="https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1809-43412019000100204">limited care</a>.”</p>
<p>Indigenous Brazilians also suffer from <a href="https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2014000400855">higher rates of malnutrition, anemia and obesity</a> – all of which puts them at a higher risk of death from COVID-19.</p>
<p>And in prescient words, given the discussion of charges against Bolsonaro, Rubaii and Araujo Junior lay out the argument that the right-wing leader’s policies – which had led to deforestation and the curtailment of Native land rights – had already amounted to “inciting genocide” against Indigenous Brazilians. </p>
<p>“While genocide often involves explicit killing, it can also include causing serious harm to a population and destroying their way of life,” the scholars write. There were already <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Confronting-Evil-Engaging-Responsibility-Genocide/dp/0199300704">warning signs</a> that this process was underway. COVID-19 “could be the final straw.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-bolsonaro-has-covid-19-and-so-do-thousands-of-indigenous-people-who-live-days-from-the-nearest-hospital-141506">Brazil's Bolsonaro has COVID-19 – and so do thousands of Indigenous people who live days from the nearest hospital</a>
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<h2>4. Poor, Black and vulnerable</h2>
<p>That the COVID-19 pandemic should hit minority groups should not come as too much of a surprise – it is a dynamic repeated the world over, including <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/health-equity/racial-ethnic-disparities/index.html">in the United States</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://aaad.unc.edu/faculty-staff/kia-caldwell/">Kia Lilly Caldwell</a> at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Edna-Araujo-3">Edna Maria de Araújo</a> of State University of Feira de Santana in Brazil explain how, just as in the U.S., <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-is-deadlier-for-black-brazilians-a-legacy-of-structural-racism-that-dates-back-to-slavery-139430">this is a result of structural racism</a> that stretches back to the days of slavery. It has resulted in economic and health disparities in Brazil that heightened the risk of the country’s Black population getting COVID-19 and suffering worse from the virus.</p>
<p>Caldwell and de Araújo noted that while Brazil’s coronavirus outbreak originated in wealthy neighborhoods, it quickly spread to poorer, densely populated urban locations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-is-deadlier-for-black-brazilians-a-legacy-of-structural-racism-that-dates-back-to-slavery-139430">COVID-19 is deadlier for black Brazilians, a legacy of structural racism that dates back to slavery</a>
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<h2>5. Spread from rich to poor</h2>
<p>A quirk of the early coronavirus outbreak in Brazil was that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-rio/a-brazilian-woman-caught-coronavirus-on-vacation-her-maid-is-now-dead-idUSKBN21B1HT">many victims were maids</a> who were infected by their employer.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.springer.com/br/book/9783030332952">Mauricio Sellmann Oliveira</a>, a visiting scholar at Dartmouth College, explains how this contributed to the spread of the virus among Brazil’s poorer, Black population.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-brazils-raging-pandemic-domestic-workers-fear-for-their-lives-and-their-jobs-138163">explains that after the abolition of slavery</a> in 1888, Black women were largely forced into taking menial jobs, many as domestic workers. Today, Black women still make up <a href="https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_2528.pdf">almost two-thirds</a> of Brazil’s “domésticas.” Most have only limited access to quality health care and have to commute long distances from the richer neighborhoods they serve to the poorer ones in which they live, and through which COVID-19 spread rapidly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-brazils-raging-pandemic-domestic-workers-fear-for-their-lives-and-their-jobs-138163">In Brazil's raging pandemic, domestic workers fear for their lives – and their jobs</a>
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<p>While COVID-19 spread among the population with devastating effect – especially for Brazil’s poor, Black and Indigenous people – Bolsonaro, it is alleged, ignored the growing evidence on masks, vaccines and other measures that would have slowed infections. Indeed, according to the report released Oct. 20, 2021, his policies can essentially be blamed for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/world/americas/bolsonaro-covid-19-brazil.html">more than half of Brazil’s total COVID-19 death toll</a> – some 300,000 people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
More than 600,000 Brazilians have died of COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. A new report says the policies of President Jair Bolsonaro are responsible for around half.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1614872021-06-01T17:45:11Z2021-06-01T17:45:11Z5 mandatarios reprobados en manejo de la pandemia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403227/original/file-20210527-19-uubwf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C3401%2C2259&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alexander Lukashenko, el líder autoritario de Bielorrusia, nunca ha reconocido la amenaza del COVID-19.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>COVID-19 es notoriamente difícil de controlar, y los líderes políticos son solo una parte del cálculo cuando se trata de la gestión de una pandemia. No obstante, algunos líderes mundiales actuales y anteriores han hecho pobres esfuerzos para combatir los brotes en su país, ya sea minimizando la gravedad de la pandemia; ignorando a la ciencia o intervenciones de salud críticas como el distanciamiento social y los cubrebocas. Todos los hombres de esta lista cometieron al menos uno de esos errores, y algunos los cometieron todos – con consecuencias mortales.</em></p>
<h2>Narendra Modi de la India</h2>
<p><strong>Escribe: Sumit Ganguly, Universidad de Indiana</strong></p>
<p>India es el nuevo epicentro de la pandemia, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">registrando unos 400.000 nuevos casos por día en algunos días de mayo</a>. Por muy sombría que sea, la estadística no capta el horror que se desarrolla allí. Los pacientes con COVID-19 están muriendo en los hospitales <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">porque los médicos no tienen oxígeno para administrar</a> ni <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">medicamentos que salvan vidas como el remdesivir</a>. Se rechaza a los enfermos de las clínicas que <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">no tienen camas disponibles</a>.</p>
<p>Muchos indios <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">culpan a un hombre por la tragedia del país</a>: el primer ministro <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>.</p>
<p>En enero pasado, Modi declaró en un <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">foro global</a> que la India había “salvado a la humanidad … al contener la corona de manera efectiva.” En marzo, su ministro de Salud proclamó que la pandemia <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">estaba llegando a su “final.”</a> En realidad, el COVID-19 estaba ganando fuerza en el país y en todo el mundo – pero su gobierno no hizo <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">preparativos para posibles contingencias</a>, como la aparición de una variante más mortal y más contagiosa.</p>
<p>Incluso cuando <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">importantes zonas del país</a> no habían suprimido por completo el patógeno, Modi y otros miembros de su partido llevaron a cabo mítines de campaña al aire libre antes de las elecciones de abril. Pocos <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">asistentes llevaban máscaras</a>. Modi también permitió que <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">un festival religioso que atrae a millones de personas se desarrollara</a> de enero a marzo. Los funcionarios de salud pública ahora creen que el festival pudo haber sido un evento de superpropagación y fue “<a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">un enorme error</a>.”</p>
<p>Como Modi promocionó sus éxitos el año pasado, la India – el <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">mayor fabricante de vacunas</a> del mundo – envió más de 10 millones de dosis de vacunas a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">los países vecinos</a>. Sin embargo, solo 1,9 por ciento de los 1.300 millones de personas de la India habían sido completamente vacunados contra el COVID-19 a principios de mayo.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi and Bolsonaro shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Narendra Modi y Jair Bolsonaro, acusados de cometer errores que agravaron la propagación del virus SARS-CoV-2 en Brasil y en la India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Jair Bolsonaro de Brasil</h2>
<p><strong>Escriben: Elize Massard da Fonseca, de la Fundação Getulio Vargas y Scott L. Greer, de la Universidad de Michigan</strong></p>
<p>El presidente brasileño, Jair Bolsonaro, no solo no respondió al COVID-19 – al que calificó de “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">pequeña gripe</a>” – sino que empeoró activamente la crisis en Brasil.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro usó sus <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.11927713.29">poderes constitucionales para interferir en</a> los asuntos administrativos del Ministerio de Salud, como protocolos clínicos, divulgación de datos y adquisición de vacunas. <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">Vetó la legislación</a> que habría ordenado el uso de cubrebocas en lugares religiosos y compensado a los profesionales de la salud perjudicados permanentemente por la pandemia, por ejemplo. Y obstruyó los esfuerzos del gobierno estatal para promover el distanciamiento social y usó su poder de decreto para <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">permitir que muchas empresas permanecieran abiertas como “esenciales”</a>, incluidos spas y gimnasios. Bolsonaro también <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">promovió agresivamente medicamentos no probados</a>, en particular la hidroxicloroquina, para tratar a los pacientes con COVID-19.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro usó su perfil público como presidente para dar forma al debate en torno a la crisis del coronavirus, fomentando <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">un falso dilema entre catástrofe económica y distanciamiento social</a> y <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">tergiversando la ciencia</a>. <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/esta-morrendo-gente-ta-lamento-mas-vai-morrer-muito-mais-se-economia-continuar-sendo-destrocada-diz-bolsonaro-1-24426281">Ha culpado</a> a los gobiernos estatales brasileños, a China y a la Organización Mundial de la Salud por la crisis, y nunca ha asumido la responsabilidad de gestionar el brote de su propio país.</p>
<p>En diciembre, Bolsonaro declaró que no se aplicaría la vacuna debido a los efectos secundarios. “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">Si te conviertes en cocodrilo, es tu problema</a>”, dijo.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11927713">La mala gestión pandémica de Bolsonaro</a> creó un conflicto dentro de su gobierno: Brasil pasó por cuatro ministros de salud en menos de un año. El brote incontrolado de Brasil dio lugar a varias variantes nuevas de coronavirus, incluida <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">la P.1, que parece más contagiosa</a>. La tasa de transmisión de COVID-19 de Brasil <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">finalmente está comenzando a caer</a>, pero la situación sigue siendo preocupante.</p>
<h2>Alexander Lukashenko de Bielorrusia</h2>
<p><strong>Escriben: Elizabeth J. King y Scott L. Greer, de la Universidad de Michigan</strong></p>
<p>Muchos países de todo el mundo han respondido al COVID-19 con políticas trágicamente inadecuadas. Sin embargo, sostenemos que los peores <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11927713/coronavirus_politics">líderes de una pandemia son los que eligieron el negacionismo total sobre la acción ineficaz</a>.</p>
<p>Alexander Lukashenko, el líder autoritario de Bielorrusia desde hace mucho tiempo, <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">nunca ha reconocido la amenaza del COVID-19</a>. Al comienzo de la pandemia, mientras otros países estaban imponiendo cierres, Lukashenko optó por no implementar ninguna medida restrictiva para evitar la propagación del COVID-19. En cambio, afirmó que el virus podría prevenirse <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">bebiendo vodka, visitando saunas y trabajando en los campos</a>. Este negacionismo esencialmente dejó las medidas preventivas y la ayuda pandémica <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">a las personas y las campañas de financiación colectiva</a>.</p>
<p>Durante el verano de 2020, Lukashenko afirmó que <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">le habían diagnosticado COVID</a>, pero que estaba asintomático, lo que le permitió seguir insistiendo en que el virus no era una amenaza grave. Supuestamente frustrar la enfermedad y visitar hospitales COVID-19 sin una máscara también respaldaba su imagen deseada de un hombre fuerte.</p>
<p>Bielorrusia acaba de comenzar los esfuerzos de vacunación, pero Lukashenko dice que no se vacunará. Actualmente, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">menos de 3% de los bielorrusos están vacunados contra el nuevo coronavirus</a>.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump, expresidente de Estados Unidos</h2>
<p><strong>Escribe: Dorothy Chin, Universidad de California, Los Ángeles</strong></p>
<p>Trump está fuera de su cargo, pero su mal manejo de la pandemia continúa teniendo devastadoras consecuencias a largo plazo en Estados Unidos – particularmente en <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">la salud y el bienestar de las comunidades de color</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump in front of a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump se recupero de COVID-19 en octubre 2020, lo que le permitió seguir insistiendo en que el virus no era una amenaza grave.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">negación temprana de Trump de la pandemia</a>; la propagación activa de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">información errónea sobre el uso de máscaras y tratamientos</a>, y un <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story?id=70160951">liderazgo incoherente</a> perjudicó al país en su conjunto – pero el resultado fue mucho peor para algunos grupos que para otros. Las comunidades de color <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">sufrieron enfermedades y muertes desproporcionadas</a>. Aunque los afroamericanos y los latinos representan solo 31% de la población de EEUU, representan <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">más de 55% de los casos de COVID-19</a>. Los indígenas estadounidenses <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">fueron hospitalizados 3,5 veces más y sufrieron 2,4 veces la tasa de mortalidad</a> de los blancos.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/?sh=485d6d39555e">Las tasas de desempleo también son desproporcionadas</a>. Durante lo peor de la pandemia de EEUU, se disparó a 17,6% para los latinoamericanos; a 16,8% para los afroamericanos, y a 15% para los asiáticoamericanos, en comparación con 12,4% para los estadounidenses blancos.</p>
<p>Estas <a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-COVID-pandemic">abrumadoras brechas</a> amplificaron las desigualdades existentes, como <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20200522&utm_term=4592697&utm_campaign=money&utm_id=44354750&orgid=">la pobreza</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">la inestabilidad de la vivienda</a> y <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">la calidad de la educación</a> – y probablemente <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">continuarán haciéndolo durante algún tiempo</a>. Por ejemplo, si bien la economía estadounidense en general muestra signos de recuperación, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh?srnd=premium&sref=x0fnd0v3">los grupos minoritarios no han logrado un progreso equivalente</a>.</p>
<p>Por último, la insistencia de Trump de culpar a China por la pandemia – que incluyeron expresiones raciales como llamar al <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kung-flu-phoenix_n_5ef3756fc5b6c5bf7c58ca7b">virus la ‘gripe kung’</a> – precedió inmediatamente a un aumento de casi el doble en los ataques contra <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">los estadounidenses de origen asiático y los isleños del Pacífico en el último año</a>. Esta inquietante tendencia <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">no muestra signos de disminuir</a>.</p>
<p>La administración de Trump apoyó el desarrollo inicial de la vacuna en el país, un logro que pocos líderes mundiales pueden reclamar, pero la desinformación y la retórica anticientífica que transmitió continúan <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/?ftag=MSF0951a18">comprometiendo el camino de Estados Unidos para salir de la pandemia</a>. Las últimas encuestas sugieren que 24% de todos los estadounidenses y 41% de los republicanos dicen que <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">no se vacunarán</a>.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador de México</h2>
<p><strong>Escribe: Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, del Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas</strong></p>
<p>Con 9,2% de sus pacientes con COVID-19 muriendo a causa de la enfermedad, <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">México</a> tiene la tasa de letalidad <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EITA%7EIND%7EMEX%7EARG%7EBRA">más alta</a> del mundo. <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">Estimaciones</a> recientes muestran que probablemente ha sufrido 617.00 muertes – a la par de Estados Unidos e India, ambos países con poblaciones mucho más grandes.</p>
<p>Una combinación de factores contribuyó a los brotes extremos y prolongados de la enfermedad en México. Y un liderazgo nacional inadecuado fue uno de ellos.</p>
<p>A lo largo de la pandemia, el presidente López Obrador buscó minimizar la gravedad de la situación. Al principio, <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">se resistió a los llamados para promulgar un bloqueo en todo el país</a> y continuó realizando <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">mítines</a> en todo el país antes de que finalmente, el 23 de marzo de 2020, México entró a confinamiento por dos meses. Con frecuencia <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">se negó</a> a usar cubrebocas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mexico's president speaks at a lectern on a stage with a small crowd of government officials sitting nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador, sin cubrebocas, anuncia ‘acciones extraordinarias’ como el confinamiento para combatir el virus SARS-CoV2, el 23 de marzo, 2020, tras semanas de rechazar que los mexicanos deberían quedarse en casa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Después de haber heredado un sistema de salud con fondos insuficientes cuando asumió el cargo en 2018, López Obrador aumentó los gastos relacionados durante la pandemia solo ligeramente. <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">Los expertos señalaron que los presupuestos de los hospitales son insuficientes</a> para la enorme tarea que enfrentan.</p>
<p>Incluso antes de que estallara la pandemia, la política de extrema austeridad fiscal de López Obrador – vigente desde 2018 – había dificultado mucho más el abordaje de una crisis de salud al <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">limitar significativamente</a> la ayuda financiera del COVID-19 disponible para ciudadanos y empresas. Eso, a su vez, agravó el shock económico causado por la pandemia, alimentando la necesidad de mantener la economía abierta durante todo el año pasado, bien entrada la feroz segunda ola invernal, de la que México apenas está comenzando a salir.</p>
<p>Finalmente, otro bloqueo se hizo inevitable. México volvió a cerrar brevemente en diciembre de 2020.</p>
<p>Hoy, <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">el uso de cubrebocas va en aumento</a> y <a href="https://elpais.com/mexico/2021-02-23/asi-avanza-la-vacunacion-contra-coronavirus-en-mexico.html.">México ha vacunado completamente a más de 10% de su población</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EMEX%7EGTM">en comparación con menos de 1% en la vecina Guatemala</a>. Las cosas están mejorando, pero el camino de la recuperación de México es largo.</p>
<p><em>Este artículo fue traducido por <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/mundo/2021/05/20/amlo-y-otros-cuatro-mandatarios-que-salen-reprobados-en-manejo-de-la-pandemia/">El Financiero</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly recibe fondos del US Department of State.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin recibe fondos del Heart, Blood, and Lung Institute de los National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca recibe fondos de la Sao Paulo Research Foundation y el National Research Council de Brasil.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado recibe fondos de CONACYT.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer ha recibido fondos del United States Army Engineer Research and Development Center, US National Science Foundation, y European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies.
</span></em></p>Estos líderes, en mayor o menor medida, subestimaron la gravedad de la pandemia – con consecuencias mortales.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1612102021-05-26T21:18:54Z2021-05-26T21:18:54ZCovid-19: Los cinco líderes que peor han gestionado la pandemia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402828/original/file-20210526-21-1u07eye.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3401%2C2279&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">El presidente de Bielorrusia, Alexander Lukashenko, sin máscarilla, visita un hospital de Minsk para pacientes del covid-19, el 27 de noviembre de 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS vía Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>La covid-19 es increíblemente difícil de controlar y, en este sentido, los líderes políticos son solo un elemento más dentro de la tarea que supone gestionar la pandemia. Pero algunos líderes actuales y pasados han hecho muy poco para combatir los brotes en sus respectivos países. Le han restado importancia a la gravedad de la pandemia, han despreciado a la ciencia o han ignorado indicaciones médicas fundamentales, como la distancia social o la obligatoriedad de las mascarillas. Todos los nombres de la siguiente lista cometieron al menos uno de estos errores, y algunos los cometieron todos (con trágicas consecuencias).</em> </p>
<h2>Narendra Modi (India)</h2>
<p><strong>Sumit Ganguly (Universidad de Indiana)</strong></p>
<p>India es el nuevo epicentro mundial de la pandemia, ya que en este mes de mayo está registrando <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">una cifra media de 400 000 nuevos diarios</a>. A pesar de lo nefasto de las cifras, estas no son capaces de reflejar todo el horror que se está viviendo allí. Los enfermos de covid-19 están muriendo en los hospitales porque <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">los médicos no pueden darles ni oxígeno</a> ni tampoco ninguna <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">medicina eficaz, como el remdesivir</a>. Los enfermos son abandonados en las puertas de las clínicas, donde ya <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">no hay camas libres</a>.</p>
<p>Muchos indios <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">culpan a un hombre de la tragedia</a> que vive el país: el primer ministro <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>.</p>
<p>En enero de 2021 Modi declaró en <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">un foro internacional</a> que India “había salvado a la humanidad conteniendo el coronavirus de forma efectiva”. En marzo, el ministro de Sanidad del país afirmó que la pandemia estaba <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">llegando a su “fin”</a>. En esos momentos, sin embargo, lo que estaba haciendo el covid-19 era ganar fuerza, tanto en India como en el resto del mundo (pero el Gobierno de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">Modi no se preparó para posibles contingencias</a>, como por ejemplo el surgimiento de una cepa del virus mucho más contagiosa y letal).</p>
<p>A pesar de que el virus aún no se había superado por completo <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">en muchas zonas del país</a>, Modi y otros miembros de su partido celebraron multitudinarios actos de campaña antes de las elecciones de abril; <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">muy pocos de los asistentes llevaban mascarilla</a>. Modi también <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">autorizó un festival religioso en el que participaron millones de personas</a> y que se celebró entre enero y marzo. Las autoridades sanitarias opinan que en ese festival se produjo una enorme expansión del virus, y ahora lo consideran “<a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">un inmenso error</a>”.</p>
<p>El año pasado, y mientras Modi proclamaba sus éxitos, India, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">el mayor productor mundial de vacunas</a>, envió <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">diez millones de dosis a sus países vecinos</a>. Sin embargo, a principios de mayo de este año, solo un 1,9 % de los 1 300 millones de habitantes del país tenía la pauta completa de la vacuna contra el virus.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi and Bolsonaro shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">El presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, y el primer ministro de la India, Narendra Modi, están acusados de gestionar mal los brotes de covid-19 de sus países.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jair Bolsonaro (Brasil)</h2>
<p><strong>Elize Massard da Fonseca (Fundación Getulio Vargas) y Scott L. Greer (Universidad de Michigan)</strong></p>
<p>El presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, no solo ha fracasado a la hora de hacer frente a la covid-19 (que él denominó burlonamente “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">gripecilla</a>”), sino que ha trabajado activamente para agravar la epidemia.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro usó <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.11927713.29">sus poderes constitucionales para interferir</a> en asuntos administrativos del ministerio de Sanidad, como por ejemplo la elaboración de protocolos clínicos, la divulgación de datos y la adquisición de vacunas. <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">Vetó leyes</a> como las que habrían hecho obligatorio el uso de mascarilla en los centros religiosos o las que habrían servido para compensar a los profesionales sanitarios, especialmente golpeados por la pandemia. También puso trabas a los esfuerzos de los gobernadores de los estados por impulsar el distanciamiento social, y del mismo modo se ha valido de su poder de imponer <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">decretos para permitir que muchos negocios pudieran seguir abiertos bajo la excusa de ser “esenciales”</a>, lo que incluyó a espás y gimnasios. Bolsonaro también hizo agresivas <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">campañas en favor de medicamentos</a> cuya eficacia contra la covid-19 aún no ha sido probada, sobre todo la hidroxicloroquina.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro se ha valido también de su imagen presidencial para condicionar los debates sobre la crisis del coronavirus. Así, <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">ha alentado el falso dilema entre la ruina económica y el mantenimiento de la distancia social</a>, y siempre <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">ha tergiversado lo que ha dicho la ciencia</a>. Ha <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/esta-morrendo-gente-ta-lamento-mas-vai-morrer-muito-mais-se-economia-continuar-sendo-destrocada-diz-bolsonaro-1-24426281">culpado de la situación a los gobiernos regionales</a>, a China y la OMS, y nunca ha asumido ninguna responsabilidad por la gestión de la pandemia en su propio país.</p>
<p>El pasado diciembre Bolsonaro declaró que no se pondría la vacuna por los efectos secundarios. “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">Si tú te quieres convertir en un cocodrilo, es tu problema</a>”, afirmó.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11927713">La mala gestión de la pandemia</a> por parte del presidente ha creado conflictos incluso dentro de su propio Ejecutivo, y es que el país ha tenido cuatro ministros de Sanidad en menos de un año. La gestión descontrolada del virus ha facilitado el surgimiento de nuevas cepas, incluida <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">la variante P.1, que parece ser muy contagiosa</a>. Y aunque la <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">tasa de contagio de COVID-19 en Brasil parece que por fin empieza a bajar</a>, la situación sigue siendo preocupante.</p>
<h2>Alexander Lukashenko (Bielorrusia)</h2>
<p><strong>Elizabeth J. King y Scott L. Greer (Universidad de Michigan)</strong> </p>
<p>Son numerosos los países que han respondido a la pandemia de covid-19 con políticas trágicamente equivocadas. Sin embargo, en nuestra opinión, los peores líderes están entre ese puñado que ni siquiera ha optado por medidas ineficaces, sino que en lugar de ello <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11927713/coronavirus_politics">se ha decantado por el negacionismo total</a>.</p>
<p>Alexander Lukashenko, el autoritario líder de Bielorrusia que lleva tantos años en el poder, <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">nunca ha reconocido la amenaza de la covid-19</a>. Al principio de la pandemia, y mientras otros países estaban decretando confinamientos, Lukashenko decidió no aplicar ninguna medida restrictiva para frenar la expansión del virus. En lugar de ello, afirmó que el virus podía evitarse <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">bebiendo vodka, yendo a la sauna y cultivando los campos</a>. Este negacionismo radical hizo que todas las medidas preventivas y de asistencia sanitaria recayeran <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">en los ciudadanos de a pie y en campañas de <em>crowdfunding</em></a>.</p>
<p>Durante el verano de 2020 Lukashenko afirmó que <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">había contraído covid-19</a>, pero que era asintomático, lo que le permitió seguir insistiendo en que el virus no era una amenaza seria. Esa supuesta superación de la enfermedad, junto con el hecho de que realizaba las visitas a los hospitales sin mascarilla, reforzaron su imagen de hombre fuerte.</p>
<p>Bielorrusia acaba de empezar con el esfuerzo de vacunación, pero Lukashenko ya ha afirmado que él no se vacunará. En este momento <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">menos del 5 % de los ciudadanos ha recibido alguna vacuna</a> contra la COVID-19.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump (Estados Unidos)</h2>
<p><strong>Dorothy Chin (Universidad de California en Los Ángeles)</strong></p>
<p>Trump ya no está en el poder, pero su mala gestión de la pandemia sigue teniendo devastadoras consecuencias a largo plazo para Estados Unidos (sobre todo para <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">la salud y en el bienestar de las comunidades de color</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump in front of a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intervención de Trump en un acto de campaña el 17 de octubre en Muskegon (Michigan) tras recuperarse del COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">negación inicial de la pandemia</a> por parte de Trump, la propagación activa de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">desinformación sobre la necesidad de ponerse la mascarilla y sobre los tratamientos contra la enfermedad</a> y, por supuesto, su <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story?id=70160951">liderazgo errático</a> dañaron al país en su conjunto. Pero las consecuencias fueron mucho peores para unos grupos que para otros. Las comunidades de color están sufriendo unas <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">tasas desproporcionadas de contagios y muertes</a>. Así, por ejemplo, a pesar de que afroamericanos y latinos suponen solo un 31 % de la población total del país, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">acumulan el 55 % de los casos</a> de covid-19. Los nativos americanos presentan una <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">tasa de hospitalización 3,5 veces mayor que los blancos, mientras que su tasa de mortalidad es 2,4 veces más alta</a>.</p>
<p>Las <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/?sh=485d6d39555e">tasas de paro tampoco guardan una correlación demográfica</a>. Durante lo peor de la pandemia en Estados Unidos, la tasa de desempleo de los ciudadanos de raíces latinas subió al 17,6 %, la de los afroamericanos al 16,8 % y la de los ciudadanos de ascendencia asiática al 15 %. Frente a ello, el nivel de desempleo entre los blancos fue del 12,4 %.</p>
<p>Estas <a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-COVID-pandemic">profundas diferencias</a> ampliaron las desigualdades que ya existían en términos de <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/">pobreza</a>, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">calidad de la educación</a> y dificultades relacionadas con el <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">acceso y disfrute de la vivienda</a>. Y lo más probable es que <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">estas desigualdades sigan aumentando</a> en el futuro. Por ejemplo, mientras que el conjunto de la economía estadounidense ya muestra signos de recuperación, el <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh">progreso económico de las minorías muestra menores niveles de pujanza</a>.</p>
<p>Por último, después de que Trump culpara a China de la covid-19 (lo que llevó aparejado términos racistas como “<a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kung-flu-phoenix_n_5ef3756fc5b6c5bf7c58ca7b">gripe kung fu</a>” –<em>kung flu</em>–) se produjo un aumento inmediato de las agresiones a <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">estadounidenses de origen asiático y a personas originarias de islas del Pacífico</a>, que se incrementaron en tasas de dos cifras. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">No hay indicios de que este tipo de ataques vaya a disminuir</a>.</p>
<p>La Administración Trump apoyó desde el principio el desarrollo de la vacuna, un logro que pocos líderes mundiales pueden apuntarse. Pero la desinformación que extendió el expresidente y la retórica anticientífica que exhibió siguen <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/?ftag=MSF0951a18">dificultando el camino de Estados Unidos hacia el fin de la pandemia</a>. Las últimas encuestas apuntan que el 24 % de los estadounidenses (y el 41 % de los republicanos) <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">se niega a vacunarse</a>.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador (México)</h2>
<p><strong>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas)</strong></p>
<p>El 9,2 % de los mexicanos infectados por covid-19 ha fallecido, lo que convierte a <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">México</a> en el país del mundo con la <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=OWID_WRL%7EMEX">tasa de mortalidad más alta</a> por esta enfermedad. Las últimas <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">estimaciones apuntan</a> a que el número de muertos asciende a 617 000, una cifra parecida a las de Estados Unidos e India, que sin embargo cuentan con poblaciones mucho mayores. </p>
<p>Una combinación de factores ha favorecido la incidencia prolongada y letal de la pandemia en México… Y un liderazgo inadecuado ha sido uno de ellos.</p>
<p>A lo largo de la pandemia, el presidente mexicano, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, buscó minimizar la gravedad de la situación del país. Al principio de la pandemia <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">se resistió a imponer un confinamiento</a> nacional y siguió <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">celebrando actos por todo el territorio</a> antes de que, finalmente, el 23 de marzo de 2020 México cerrara durante dos meses. López Obrador <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">rechazaba a menudo ponerse la mascarilla</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mexico's president speaks at a lectern on a stage with a small crowd of government officials sitting nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador anuncia sin mascarilla el confinamiento nacional el 23 de marzo de 2020 después de varias semanas durante las que animó a los mexicanos a seguir con sus rutinas cotidianas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>López Obrador, que heredó un mosaico de servicios de salud infrafinanciados cuando llegó al poder en 2018, incrementó sólo ligeramente el gasto sanitario durante la pandemia. Los expertos afirman que l<a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">os presupuestos de los hospitales son insuficientes</a> para hacer frente a la inmensa tarea a la que se enfrentan.</p>
<p>Antes incluso del estallido de la pandemia, desde el año 2018, López Obrador ha estado aplicando una política de austeridad fiscal extrema. Esto ha provocado que la gestión de la crisis sanitaria sea mucho más compleja, pues ha dejado <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">escaso margen para prestar ayuda financiera</a> a individuos y empresas. Se trata de una situación, por otro lado, que no solo agravó el impacto económico de la pandemia en sí, sino que además aumentó la necesidad de mantener la economía abierta durante todo el año pasado; de mantenerla abierta incluso durante la terrible segunda ola de invierno, de la que en este momento México solo se está empezando a recuperar.</p>
<p>Finalmente imponer otro confinamiento resultó inevitable, y México volvió a cerrar brevemente en diciembre de 2020.</p>
<p>Hoy <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">el uso de la mascarilla es voluntario</a>, y <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EMEX%7EGTM">México solo ha vacunado al 14 % de su población</a>, cifra que en la vecina Guatemala se reduce al 2 %. Las cosas están mejorando, pero a México aún le queda mucho camino por andar en la senda de la recuperación.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly recibe financiación del Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin recibe financiación del Instituto del Corazón, la Sangre y los Pulmones de los Institutos Nacionales de Salud.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca recibe financiación de la Fundación de Investigación de Sao Paulo y del Consejo Nacional de Investigación de Brasil (CNPq).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado recibe financiación del Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT).
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer ha recibido financiación del Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo de Ingeniería del Ejército de los Estados Unidos, de la Fundación Nacional de la Ciencia de los Estados Unidos y del Observatorio Europeo de Sistemas y Políticas de Salud.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p>La pandemia aún no ha terminado, pero estos líderes mundiales ya han ocupado su lugar en la historia por no haber combatido eficazmente el mortal coronavirus. Algunos de ellos ni siquiera lo intentaron.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1613782021-05-25T18:18:21Z2021-05-25T18:18:21ZVoici les cinq dirigeants qui ont le plus mal géré la Covid-19 dans leur pays<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402701/original/file-20210525-23-1kqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3401%2C2274&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Le président biélorusse Alexandre Loukachenko, sans masque, visite un hôpital pour les patients atteints de la Covid-19, à Minsk, le 27 novembre 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>La Covid-19 est extrêmement difficile à contrôler, et les dirigeants politiques ne représentent qu’une partie de l’équation lorsqu’il s’agit de gérer cette pandémie.</p>
<p>Mais certains dirigeants mondiaux, actuels ou sortants, ont fait peu d’efforts pour combattre les flambées de coronavirus dans leur pays, que ce soit en minimisant la gravité de la pandémie, en faisant fi de la science ou en ignorant les gestes sanitaires essentiels comme la distanciation sociale et le port du masque. Tous les hommes figurant sur cette liste ont commis au moins une de ces erreurs, et certains les ont toutes commises — avec des conséquences funestes.</p>
<h2>Narendra Modi, de l’Inde</h2>
<p><strong>Sumit Ganguly, Université de l’Indiana</strong></p>
<p>L’Inde est le nouvel épicentre de la pandémie mondiale, enregistrant au mois de mai quelque <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">400 000 nouveaux cas par jour</a>. Cette statistique, aussi terrible soit-elle, ne rend pas compte de l’horreur qui se déroule dans le pays. Les patients atteints du virus de la Covid-19 meurent dans les hôpitaux parce que les médecins <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">n’ont pas d’oxygène</a> ni de <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">médicaments comme le remdesivir</a> à leur offrir. Les malades sont refoulés dans les cliniques, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">faute de lits disponibles</a>.</p>
<p>De nombreux Indiens <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">accusent un homme d’être responsable</a> de la tragédie du pays : le Premier ministre <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>. En janvier 2021, Modi a déclaré lors d’un <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">forum mondial</a> que l’Inde avait « sauvé l’humanité… en contenant efficacement le coronavirus ». En mars, son ministre de la santé a proclamé que la <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">pandémie tirait à sa fin</a>. Dans les faits, la Covid-19 gagnait en intensité en Inde et dans le monde entier — mais son gouvernement n’a rien fait pour parer à <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">d’éventuelles résurgences des cas</a>, comme l’émergence d’un variant plus mortel et plus contagieux.</p>
<p>Alors même que d’importantes <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">zones du pays</a> n’avaient pas totalement supprimé le virus, Modi et d’autres membres de son parti ont organisé des meetings de campagne en plein air avant les élections d’avril. <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">Peu de participants portaient des masques</a>. Modi a également autorisé la tenue, de janvier à mars, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">d’un festival religieux qui attire des millions de personnes</a>. Les responsables de la santé publique pensent aujourd’hui que le festival a pu être un événement super-propagateur et qu’il s’agit d’une <a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">« énorme erreur »</a>.</p>
<p>Alors que Modi vantait ses succès l’année dernière, l’Inde — le <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">plus grand fabricant de vaccins</a> au monde — a envoyé plus de 10 millions de doses de <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">vaccins à des pays voisins</a>. Pourtant, seulement 1,9 % des 1,3 milliard d’habitants de l’Inde avaient été entièrement vaccinés contre la Covid-19 au début du mois de mai.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi et Bolsonaro se serrent la main" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Le président brésilien Jair Bolsonaro et le premier ministre indien Narendra Modi sont tous deux accusés d’avoir mal géré les épidémies de Covid-19 dans leur pays.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jair Bolsonaro du Brésil</h2>
<p><strong>Elize Massard da Fonseca, Fundação Getulio Vargas et Scott L. Greer, Université du Michigan</strong></p>
<p>Le président brésilien Jair Bolsonaro ne s’est pas contenté de ne pas réagir à la Covid-19 — qu’il qualifie de <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">« petite grippe »</a> — il a activement aggravé la crise au Brésil.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">a usé de ses pouvoirs constitutionnels pour s’immiscer</a> dans les affaires administratives du ministère de la Santé, telles que les protocoles cliniques, la divulgation des données et l’achat de vaccins. <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">Il a opposé son veto</a> à des textes de loi qui auraient, par exemple, rendu obligatoire le port du masque dans les sites religieux et indemnisé les professionnels de la santé ayant subi un préjudice permanent du fait de la pandémie. Il a également sapé les efforts du gouvernement de l’État pour promouvoir la distanciation sociale et a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">signé un décret pour permettre à de nombreux commerces de rester ouverts</a> en tant ‘qu’essentiels’, notamment les spas et les salles de sport. Bolsonaro a également fait la promotion agressive de <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">médicaments non éprouvés</a>, notamment l’hydroxychloroquine, pour traiter les patients atteints de la Covid-19.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro a utilisé son poste de président pour influencer le débat autour de la crise du coronavirus, créant un <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">faux dilemme entre la catastrophe économique et la distanciation sociale</a> et en <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">déformant la science</a>. Il a rendu les gouvernements des États brésiliens, la Chine et l’Organisation mondiale de la santé responsables de la crise de la Covid-19 et n’a jamais assumé la responsabilité de la gestion de l’épidémie dans son propre pays.</p>
<p>En décembre, Bolsonaro a déclaré qu’il ne recevrait pas le vaccin en raison de ses effets secondaires. « <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">Si vous vous transformez en crocodile, c’est votre problème »</a>, a-t-il déclaré.</p>
<p>La mauvaise gestion de la pandémie par Bolsonaro a créé des conflits au sein de son gouvernement. Le Brésil a vu défiler quatre ministres de la Santé en moins d’un an. Les flambées épidémiques incontrôlées au Brésil ont donné naissance à plusieurs nouveaux variants du coronavirus, dont le <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">variant P.1, qui semble plus contagieux</a>. Le taux de transmission de la Covid-19 au Brésil <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">commence enfin à baisser</a>, mais la situation reste préoccupante.</p>
<h2>Alexandre Loukachenko de la Biélorussie</h2>
<p><strong>Elizabeth J. King et Scott L. Greer, Université du Michigan</strong></p>
<p>De nombreux pays dans le monde ont affronté la Covid-19 avec des politiques tragiquement défaillantes. Cependant, selon nous, les pires dirigeants face à cette pandémie sont ceux qui ont choisi le déni total plutôt que l’action inefficace.</p>
<p>Alexandre Loukachenko, dirigeant autoritaire de longue date de la Biélorussie, n’a jamais <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">reconnu la menace</a> de la Covid-19. Au début de la pandémie, alors que d’autres pays imposaient des mesures de confinement, Loukachenko n’a mis en œuvre aucune mesure sanitaire pour empêcher la propagation du virus.</p>
<p>Au lieu de cela, il a affirmé que le virus pouvait être évité en <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">buvant de la vodka</a>, en allant au sauna et en travaillant dans les champs. Ce négationnisme a pratiquement laissé le fardeau des mesures préventives et l’aide à la pandémie <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">aux individus et aux campagnes</a> de financement participatif.</p>
<p>Au cours de l’été 2020, Loukachenko a déclaré <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">qu’il avait reçu un diagnostic de Covid-19</a> mais qu’il était asymptomatique, ce qui lui a permis de continuer à prétexter que le virus n’était pas une menace sérieuse. Le fait d’avoir prétendument déjoué la maladie et d’avoir visité des hôpitaux dédiés à la Covid-19 sans masque a également renforcé l’image d’homme fort qu’il souhaitait donner.</p>
<p>La Biélorussie vient de commencer sa campagne de vaccination, mais M. Loukachenko affirme qu’il ne se fera pas vacciner. Actuellement, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">moins de 3 % des Biélorusses</a> sont vaccinés contre la Covid-19.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump des États-Unis</h2>
<p><strong>Dorothy Chin, Université de Californie, Los Angeles</strong></p>
<p>Trump n’est plus en fonction, mais sa mauvaise gestion de la pandémie continuera d’avoir des conséquences dévastatrices à long terme sur les États-Unis — en particulier sur la <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">santé et le bien-être des minorités</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump face à une foule" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump lors d’un rassemblement de campagne le 17 octobre 2020 à Muskegon, Michigan, après s’être remis du Covid-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Le <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">déni précoce de la pandémie</a> par Trump, la <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">désinformation continue sur le port du masque</a> et les traitements, ainsi que <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story ?id=70160951">son leadership incohérent</a> ont nui au pays dans son ensemble — mais le résultat a été bien pire pour certains groupes que pour d’autres. Les communautés de couleur ont souffert <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">d’un nombre disproportionné de contaminations et de décès.</a> Bien que les Afro-Américains et les Latinos ne représentent que 31 % de la population américaine, par exemple, ils comptent <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">pour plus de 55 % des cas de Covid-19.</a> Les membres des communautés amérindiennes <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">ont été hospitalisés 3,5 fois plus et ont souffert d’un taux de mortalité 2,4 fois supérieur</a> à celui des Blancs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/ ?sh=485d6d39555%3Csup%3Ee%3C/sup">Les taux de chômage sont également disproportionnés</a>. Au plus fort de la pandémie aux États-Unis, ils ont grimpé à 17,6 % pour les Latino-Américains, 16,8 % pour les Afro-Américains et 15 % pour les Américains d’origine asiatique, contre 12,4 % pour les Américains blancs.</p>
<p><a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-Covid-pandemic">Ces écarts considérables</a> ont amplifié les inégalités existantes telles que la <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/">pauvreté</a>, la <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">précarité du logement</a> et la <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">qualité de l’enseignement</a> — et continueront probablement à le faire <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">pendant encore un certain temps</a>. Par exemple, alors que l’économie américaine dans son ensemble montre des signes de reprise, les <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh ?srnd=premium&sref=x0fnd0v3">groupes minoritaires n’ont pas fait de progrès</a> équivalents.</p>
<p>Enfin, le blâme de Trump à l’égard de la Chine pour la Covid-19 — qui comprenait des épithètes raciales telles que le fait de qualifier le virus de <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kellyanne-conway-coronavirus_n_5eeebc5dc5b6aac5f3a46b45">« kung flu »</a> — a immédiatement précédé une multiplication par près de deux des attaques contre les <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">Américains d’origine asiatique et les insulaires du Pacifique</a> au cours de l’année écoulée. Cette tendance inquiétante ne montre <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">aucun signe d’atténuation.</a></p>
<p>L’administration Trump a encouragé dès le début le développement du vaccin par les États-Unis, une réalisation dont peu de dirigeants mondiaux peuvent se prévaloir. Mais la désinformation et la rhétorique anti-scientifique qu’il a diffusées continuent de <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/ ?ftag=MSF0951a18">compromettre le chemin vers la sortie de la pandémie aux États-Unis.</a> Les derniers sondages indiquent que <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">24 % de tous les Américains et 41 % des républicains</a> disent qu’ils ne se feront pas vacciner.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador du Mexique</h2>
<p><strong>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (Centre de recherche et de documentation économique)</strong></p>
<p>Avec 9,2 % de patients atteints de la Covid-19 qui succombent à la maladie, le <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">Mexique</a> détient le <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer ?zoomToSelection=true& %3Btime=2020-03-01..latest& %3BpickerSort=asc& %3BpickerMetric=location& %3BMetric=Case+fatality+rate& %3BInterval=7-day+rolling+average& %3BRelative+to+Population=true& %3BAlign+outbreaks=false& %3Bcountry=USA%7EITA%7EIND%7EMEX%7EARG%7EBRA+ %22 %22">taux de mortalité le plus élevé au monde</a>. Des <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">estimations récentes</a> montrent que la pandémie y a fait près de 617 000 morts, soit autant que les États-Unis et l’Inde, deux pays dont la population est pourtant beaucoup plus importante.</p>
<p>Une combinaison de facteurs a contribué aux flambées épidémiques galopantes et prolongées de Covid-19 au Mexique. L’un d’eux est le manque de leadership national.</p>
<p>Tout au long de la pandémie, le président mexicain Andrés Manuel López Obrador a cherché à minimiser la gravité de la situation au Mexique. Au tout début, il a <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">résisté aux appels à décréter un confinement national</a> t a continué à organiser des <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">rassemblements</a> dans tout le pays avant de finir, le 23 mars 2020, par fermer le Mexique pendant deux mois. Il a <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">fréquemment refusé</a> de porter un masque.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Le président mexicain s’exprime sur une scène avec une petite foule de représentants du gouvernement assis à proximité" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador, sans masque, annonce un verrouillage national le 23 mars 2020, après avoir encouragé pendant des semaines les Mexicains à poursuivre leurs activités habituelles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ayant hérité d’une multitude de services de santé sous-financés lors de son arrivée au pouvoir en 2018, Lopez Obrador n’a que très peu augmenté les dépenses liées à la santé pendant la pandémie. Selon les experts, les <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">budgets des hôpitaux sont insuffisants</a> par rapport à l’énormité de la tâche qui leur incombe.</p>
<p>Avant même que la pandémie n’éclate, la politique d’austérité budgétaire extrême de Lopez Obrador — en place depuis 2018 — avait rendu la lutte contre la crise sanitaire beaucoup plus difficile en <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">limitant considérablement l’aide financière</a> liée à la Covid-19 disponible pour les citoyens et les entreprises. Cela a, dans la foulée, aggravé la grave crise économique causée par la pandémie, alimentant la nécessité de maintenir l’économie ouverte toute l’année dernière, en bonne partie pendant la féroce deuxième vague hivernale, dont le Mexique commence à peine à se relever.</p>
<p>Avec, comme résultat, une autre fermeture devenue inévitable : celle de décembre 2020.</p>
<p>Aujourd’hui, le <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">port du masque a gagné en popularité</a> et le Mexique <a href="https://elpais.com/mexico/2021-02-23/asi-avanza-la-vacunacion-contra-coronavirus-en-mexico.html.">a entièrement vacciné 10 % de sa population</a>, contre <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer ?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA %7EMEX %7EGTM">1 % au Guatemala voisin</a>. La situation s’améliore, mais le chemin de la guérison sera long pour le Mexique.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161378/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly reçoit un financement du Département d'Etat américain.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin reçoit un financement de l'Institut du cœur, du sang et des poumons du NIH.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca reçoit un financement de la Fondation de recherche de Sao Paulo et du Conseil national de la recherche du Brésil (CNPq).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado reçoit un financement du Conseil national de la science et de la technologie (CONACYT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer a reçu des fonds du Centre de recherche et de développement du génie de l'armée américaine, de la US National Science Foundation et de l'Observatoire européen des systèmes et des politiques de santé.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>La pandémie n’est pas terminée, mais ces dirigeants sont déjà entrés dans l’histoire pour avoir échoué à combattre efficacement la Covid-19. Certains d’entre eux n’ont même pas vraiment essayé.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1597872021-05-18T12:25:47Z2021-05-18T12:25:47ZWorld’s worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399550/original/file-20210508-19-1qkxfej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C3401%2C2259&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/belarus-president-lukashenko-visits-hospital-for-covid-19-news-photo/1229813959?adppopup=true">Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>COVID-19 is notoriously hard to control, and political leaders are only part of the calculus when it comes to pandemic management. But some current and former world leaders have made little effort to combat outbreaks in their country, whether by downplaying the pandemic’s severity, disregarding science or ignoring critical health interventions like social distancing and masks. All of the men on this list committed at least one of those mistakes, and some committed all of them – with deadly consequences.</em></p>
<h2>Narendra Modi of India</h2>
<p><strong>Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University</strong></p>
<p>India is the new epicenter of the global pandemic, recording some <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/">400,000 new cases per day by May 2021</a>. However grim, this statistic fails to capture the sheer horror unfolding there. COVID-19 patients are dying in hospitals <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/24-patients-die-at-hospital-in-karnataka-due-to-oxygen-shortage/story/438125.html">because doctors have no oxygen to give</a> and no <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210422-india-s-covid-19-shortages-spur-black-market-for-drugs-oxygen">lifesaving drugs like remdesivir</a>. The sick are turned away from clinics that <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-covid-hospitals-turn-patients-away/">have no free beds</a>.</p>
<p>Many Indians <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/995446333/this-government-has-failed-us-anger-rises-in-india-over-pm-modis-covid-response">blame one man for the country’s tragedy</a>: Prime Minister <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/modis-pandemic-choice-protect-his-image-or-protect-india-he-chose-himself/2021/04/28/44cc0d22-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html">Narendra Modi</a>.</p>
<p>In January 2021, Modi declared at a <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-address-the-world-economic-forum-s-davos-summit-at-5-30-pm-today-11611803181228.html">global forum</a> that India had “saved humanity … by containing corona effectively.” In March, his health minister proclaimed that the pandemic was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/asia/india-covid19-modi.html">reaching an “endgame.”</a> COVID-19 was actually gaining strength in India and worldwide – but his government made no <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/asia/india-covid-vaccine-variant.html">preparations for possible contingencies</a>, such as the emergence of a deadlier and more contagious COVID-19 variant.</p>
<p>Even as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565">significant pockets of the country</a> had not fully suppressed the virus, Modi and other members of his party held jampacked outdoor campaign rallies before April elections. Few <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/639526/">attendees wore masks</a>. Modi also allowed a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/08/india-coronavirus-kumbh-mela/">religious festival that draws millions to proceed</a> from January to March. Public health officials now believe the festival may have been a superspreader event and was “<a href="https://thewire.in/health/watch-karan-thapar-ashish-jha-kumbh-mela-shahi-snan-covid-19">an enormous mistake</a>.” </p>
<p>As Modi touted his successes last year, India – the world’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html">largest vaccine manufacturer</a> – sent over 10 million vaccine doses <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-starts-covid-19-vaccine-drive-to-neighboring-countries-11611234933">to neighboring countries</a>. Yet just 1.9% of India’s 1.3 billion people had been fully inoculated against COVID-19 by early May.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modi and Bolsonaro shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C15%2C3480%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399548/original/file-20210508-23-15af3jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are both accused of mishandling their countries’ COVID-19 outbreaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-jair-bolsonaro-and-indias-prime-minister-news-photo/1182256687?adppopup=true">Pavel Golovin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil</h2>
<p><strong>Elize Massard da Fonseca, Fundação Getulio Vargas and Scott L. Greer, University of Michigan</strong></p>
<p>Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro did not just fail to respond to COVID-19 – which he derides as a “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html">little flu</a>” – he actively worsened the crisis in Brazil.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro used his <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.11927713.29">constitutional powers to interfere in</a> the Health Ministry’s administrative matters, such as clinical protocols, data disclosure and vaccine procurement. He <a href="https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2020/08/04/Quais-os-vetos-de-Bolsonaro-a-medidas-de-combate-%C3%A0-pandemia">vetoed legislation</a> that would have both mandated the use of masks in religious sites and compensated health professionals permanently harmed by the pandemic, for example. And he obstructed state government efforts to promote social distancing and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-idUSKBN22N308">used his decree power to allow many businesses to remain open as “essential,”</a> including spas and gyms. Bolsonaro also aggressively <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro-chloroquine.html">promoted unproven medicines</a>, notably hydroxychloroquine, to treat COVID-19 patients. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro used his public profile as president to shape the debate around the coronavirus crisis, fostering a <a href="https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,bolsonaro-volta-a-chamar-crise-do-coronavirus-de-histeria,70003236546">false dilemma between economic catastrophe and social distancing</a> and <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/bolsonaro-sugere-cloroquina-ate-quinto-dia-apos-surgimento-de-sintomas-do-coronavirus-apesar-de-nao-haver-estudos-conclusivos-24360182">misrepresenting science</a>. He has <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/esta-morrendo-gente-ta-lamento-mas-vai-morrer-muito-mais-se-economia-continuar-sendo-destrocada-diz-bolsonaro-1-24426281">blamed</a> Brazilian state governments, China and the World Health Organization for the COVID-19 crisis, and has never taken responsibility for managing his own country’s outbreak. </p>
<p>In December, Bolsonaro declared that he would not take the vaccine because of side effects. “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00181-1">If you turn into a crocodile, it’s your problem</a>,” he said. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11927713">Bolsonaro’s pandemic mismanagement</a> created conflict within his government. Brazil cycled through four health ministers in less than a year. Brazil’s uncontrolled outbreak gave rise to several new coronavirus variants, including the <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext">P.1 variant, which appears more contagious</a>. Brazil’s COVID-19 transmission rate <a href="https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/BRA/">is finally starting to drop</a>, but the situation is still worrisome.</p>
<h2>Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus</h2>
<p><strong>Elizabeth J. King and Scott L. Greer, University of Michigan</strong> </p>
<p>Many countries around the world have responded to COVID-19 with tragically inadequate policies. However, we argue that the worse pandemic <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11927713/coronavirus_politics">leaders are those handful who chose total denialism over ineffective action</a>.</p>
<p>Alexander Lukashenko, the longtime authoritarian leader of Belarus, has <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/23/84461-krest-moschevik-vodka-i-traktor">never acknowledged the threat of COVID-19</a>. Early in the pandemic, as other countries were enforcing lockdowns, Lukashenko opted not to implement any restrictive measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Instead, he claimed the virus could be prevented by <a href="http://novayagazeta.ee/articles/30392/">drinking vodka, visiting the sauna and working in the fields</a>. This denialism essentially left preventative measures and pandemic aid <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543">to individuals and crowdfunding campaigns</a>. </p>
<p>Over the summer of 2020, Lukashenko stated that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-53570933">he had been diagnosed with COVID-19</a> but that he was asymptomatic, which allowed him to continue insisting that the virus was not a serious threat. Allegedly thwarting the disease and visiting COVID-19 hospitals without a mask also supported his desired image of a strong man.</p>
<p>Belarus has just started vaccination efforts, but Lukashenko says he won’t get vaccinated. Currently, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">fewer than 3% of Belarusians are inoculated against COVID-19</a>.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump of the United States</h2>
<p><strong>Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles</strong></p>
<p>Trump is out of office, but his mishandling of the pandemic continues to have devastating long-term consequences on the United States – particularly on the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">health and welfare of communities of color</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trump in front of a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399549/original/file-20210508-17-1y2wmij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump at a campaign rally on Oct. 17, 2020, in Muskegon, Michigan, after recovering from COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1281136162?adppopup=true">Rey Del Rio/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trump’s early <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html">denial of the pandemic</a>, active propagation of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/politics/trump-fact-check-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-.html">misinformation about mask-wearing and treatments</a> and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-stunning-reversal-total-authority-claim-governors-analysis/story?id=70160951">incoherent leadership</a> harmed the country as a whole – but the outcome was much worse for some groups than others. Communities of color suffered <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">disproportionate illness and deaths</a>. Although African Americans and Latinos make up only 31% of the U.S. population, for example, they account for <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32562416/">over 55% of COVID-19 cases</a>. Indigenous Americans were <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html">hospitalized 3.5 times more and suffered 2.4 times the mortality rate</a> of whites.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/06/28/pre-and-post-coronavirus-unemployment-rates-by-state-industry-age-group-and-race/?sh=485d6d39555e">Unemployment rates are also disproportionate</a>. During the worst of the U.S. pandemic, they soared to 17.6% for Latino Americans, 16.8% for African Americans and 15% for Asian Americans, compared with 12.4% for white Americans. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/inequities-job-loss-recovery-amid-COVID-pandemic">crushing gaps</a> amplified existing inequities such as <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2020/05/11/how-pandemics-leave-the-poor-even-farther-behind/?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20200522&utm_term=4592697&utm_campaign=money&utm_id=44354750&orgid=">poverty</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/01/housing-hardships-reach-unprecedented-heights-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">housing instability</a> and <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help">quality of schooling</a> – and will likely <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime">continue to do so for some time to come</a>. For example, while the overall U.S. economy shows signs of recovery, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/powell-says-economy-making-real-progress-but-disparities-weigh?srnd=premium&sref=x0fnd0v3">minority groups have not made equivalent progress</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, Trump’s blame of China for COVID-19 – which included such racial epithets as calling <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-kung-flu-phoenix_n_5ef3756fc5b6c5bf7c58ca7b">the virus the “kung flu”</a> – immediately preceded a nearly twofold increase in attacks on <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/national-report-through-march-2021/">Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in the past year</a>. This disturbing trend <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/asian-american-women-stabbed-san-francisco-attack-77497315">shows no signs of abating</a>. </p>
<p>The Trump administration supported the country’s initial development of the vaccine, an achievement few world leaders can claim. But the misinformation and anti-science rhetoric he broadcast continues to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/?ftag=MSF0951a18">compromise America’s path out of the pandemic</a>. Latest polling suggests 24% of all Americans and 41% of Republicans say they <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots">will not get vaccinated</a>.</p>
<h2>Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico</h2>
<p><strong>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas</strong></p>
<p>With 9.2% of its COVID-19 patients dying from the disease, <a href="https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/news/mexicos-response-covid-19-case-study">Mexico</a> has the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EITA%7EIND%7EMEX%7EARG%7EBRA">highest</a> case fatality rate in the world. Recent <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show">estimates</a> show that it has likely suffered 617,000 deaths – on par with the U.S. and India, both countries with much larger populations. </p>
<p>A combination of factors contributed to Mexico’s prolonged, extreme COVID-19 outbreaks. And inadequate national leadership was one of them.</p>
<p>Throughout the pandemic, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sought to minimize the gravity of the situation in Mexico. In the very beginning, he <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2020/03/no-dejen-de-salir-amlo-coronavirus-covid19/">resisted calls to enact a nationwide lockdown</a> and continued holding <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/politica/critican-amlo-por-besar-nina-pese-recomendaciones-por-coronavirus">rallies</a> nationwide before eventually, on March 23, 2020, Mexico shuttered for two months. He frequently <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2020/12/02/politica/reitera-amlo-que-descarta-cubrebocas-lo-mejor-es-la-sana-distancia/">refused</a> to wear a mask.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mexico's president speaks at a lectern on a stage with a small crowd of government officials sitting nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401105/original/file-20210517-13-1x9palm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">López Obrador, maskless, announces a national lockdown on March 23, 2020, after weeks of encouraging Mexicans to keep up their regular routines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrés-manuel-lópez-obrador-mexicos-president-speaks-during-news-photo/1214294932?adppopup=true">Adrián Monroy/Medios y Media/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Having inherited an underfunded patchwork of health services when he took office in 2018, López Obrador increased health-related expenditures during the pandemic only slightly. <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/mas-gasto-a-salud-pero-recorta-rubros-presupuesto-subio-apenas-36/1349412">Experts said hospital budgets are insufficient</a> to the enormous task facing them. </p>
<p>Even before the pandemic broke out, López Obrador’s policy of extreme fiscal austerity – in place since 2018 – had made tackling a health crisis much more difficult by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2bb141e2-4d0a-435f-9720-3f67b8077c28">significantly limiting</a> the COVID-19 financial aid available to citizens and businesses. That, in turn, aggravated the economic shock caused by the pandemic in Mexico, feeding the need to keep the economy open all last year, well into the ferocious winter second wave, from which Mexico is only beginning to emerge. </p>
<p>Eventually, another lockdown became inevitable. Mexico shut down again briefly in December 2020.</p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/aumenta-el-uso-de-cubrebocas-en-el-pais-y-la-mayoria-reprueba-que-amlo-no-los-utilice/">mask-wearing is up</a> and <a href="https://elpais.com/mexico/2021-02-23/asi-avanza-la-vacunacion-contra-coronavirus-en-mexico.html.">Mexico has fully vaccinated 10% of its population</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA%7EMEX%7EGTM">compared with 1% in neighboring Guatemala</a>. Things are improving, but Mexico’s road to recovery is long. </p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159787/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Ganguly receives funding from the US Department of State. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Chin receives funding from the Heart, Blood, and Lung Institute of the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elize Massard da Fonseca receives funding from the Sao Paulo Research Foundation and Brazil's National Research Council (CNPq). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salvador Vázquez del Mercado receives funding from the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Greer has received funding from the United States Army Engineer Research and Development Center, US National Science Foundation, and the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J King does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The pandemic’s not over yet, but these world leaders have already cemented their place in history for failing to effectively combat the deadly coronavirus. Some of them didn’t even really try.Sumit Ganguly, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Indiana UniversityDorothy Chin, Associate Research Psychologist, University of California, Los AngelesElizabeth J King, Associate Professor in Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health, University of MichiganElize Massard da Fonseca, Assistant Professor, Brazilian School of Public Administration, Fundação Getulio VargasSalvador Vázquez del Mercado, Conacyt Research Professor, National Laboratory of Public Policy, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasScott L. Greer, Professor, Global Health Management and Policy and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1064762018-12-05T11:40:57Z2018-12-05T11:40:57ZWhatsApp skewed Brazilian election, showing social media’s danger to democracy<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/18/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-whatsapp-fake-news-campaign">Misinformation via social media</a> played a troubling role in <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/12/fraude-com-cpf-viabilizou-disparo-de-mensagens-de-whatsapp-na-eleicao.shtml">boosting far-right Congressman Jair Bolsonaro</a> to into the Brazilian presidency. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro did not <a href="https://theconversation.com/bolsonaro-wins-brazil-election-promises-to-purge-leftists-from-country-105481">win 55 percent of votes</a> thanks to misinformation alone. A powerful desire for political change in Brazil after a yearslong corruption scandal and a court decision compelling the jailed front-runner <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-in-political-crisis-over-jailed-president-4-essential-reads-91143">Luis Inacio Lula da Silva</a> to withdraw from the race both opened the door wide for his win. </p>
<p>But Bolsonaro’s candidacy benefited from a powerful and coordinated disinformation campaign intended to discredit his rivals, according to <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/10/empresarios-bancam-campanha-contra-o-pt-pelo-whatsapp.shtml">the Brazilian newspaper Folha</a>. </p>
<p>Days before the Oct. 28 runoff between Bolsonaro and his leftist competitor, leftist Fernando Haddad, an investigation by Folha revealed that a conservative Brazilian business lobby had bankrolled the multimillion-dollar smear campaign – activities that may have constituted an illegal campaign contribution. </p>
<h2>Election scandal fallout</h2>
<p>Using WhatsApp, a Facebook-owned messaging service, Bolsonaro supporters delivered an onslaught of daily misinformation straight to millions of Brazilians’ phones. </p>
<p>They included doctored photos portraying senior Workers Party members celebrating with Communist <a href="https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/lupa/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Relat%C3%B3rio-WhatsApp-1-turno-Lupa-2F-USP-2F-UFMG.pdf">Fidel Castro</a> after the Cuban Revolution, audio clips manipulated to misrepresent Haddad’s policies and fake “fact-checks” discrediting authentic news stories.</p>
<p>The misinformation strategy was effective because WhatsApp is an essential communication tool in Brazil, used by <a href="http://www.digitalnewsreport.org/survey/2018/brazil-2018/">120 million of its 210 million citizens</a>. Since WhatsApp text messages are forwarded and reforwarded by friends and family, the information seems more credible. </p>
<p>The fallout from Folha’s front-page report compelled WhatsApp to issue an apologetic <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2018/10/como-o-whatsapp-combate-a-desinformacao-no-brasil.shtml">op-ed</a>.</p>
<p>“Every day, millions of Brazilians trust WhatsApp with their most private conversations,” wrote WhatsApp’s vice president, Chris Daniels, in Folha. “Because both good and bad information can go viral on WhatsApp, we have a responsibility to amplify the good and mitigate the harm.” </p>
<p>The company announced that it would <a href="https://newsroom.fb.com/news/h/how-whatsapp-is-fighting-misinformation-in-brazil/">purge</a> thousands of spam accounts in Brazil, clearly label messages to show that they had been forwarded, tighten rules on group messaging and partner with Brazilian fact-checking organizations to identify false news.</p>
<p>Brazil’s highest electoral court also created an <a href="http://www.tse.jus.br/imprensa/noticias-tse/2018/Outubro/conselho-consultivo-sobre-internet-e-eleicoes-discute-impacto-das-fake-news">advisory board on internet and elections</a> to investigate disinformation in Brazil’s 2018 election and propose regulations to limit its impact in future political processes.</p>
<h2>It’s a WhatsApp-defined world</h2>
<p>Brazil is only the latest country to learn that <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebook-is-killing-democracy-with-its-personality-profiling-data-93611">social media can undermine the democratic process</a>. </p>
<p>Numerous studies have confirmed that a toxic blend of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/25/facebook-fined-uk-privacy-access-user-data-cambridge-analytica">data mismanagement</a>, targeted advertisement and online misinformation also influenced the outcomes of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-post-truth-election-clicks-trump-facts-67274">2016 U.S. presidential race</a>.</p>
<p>Brazil’s WhatsApp election scandal should be a wake-up call particularly for other developing world democracies, as revealed in <a href="https://public.tableau.com/profile/zeroratingcts#!/vizhome/zeroratinginfo/Painel1">research I recently presented</a> at the United Nations’ Internet Governance Forum. </p>
<p>That’s because the conditions that allowed fake news to thrive in Brazil exist in many Latin American, African and Asian countries.</p>
<p>Internet access is very expensive in Brazil. A broadband connection can cost up to 15 percent of <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2017-02/brazils-national-average-household-income-capita-40016-2016">a household’s income</a> and mobile plans with unlimited data, common in rich countries, are rare.</p>
<p>Instead, mobile carriers entice users by offering “zero rating” plans with <a href="https://internet-governance.fgv.br/sites/internet-governance.fgv.br/files/publicacoes/belli_arcep_zero_rating_minitel_en.pdf">free access</a> to specific applications, typically Facebook, WhatsApp and Twitter. Nearly three-quarters of Brazilian internet users had these prepaid mobile-internet plans in 2016, according to the technology research center <a href="http://cetic.br/media/docs/publicacoes/2/TIC_DOM_2016_LivroEletronico.pdf">CETIC.br</a>.</p>
<p>Most Brazilians therefore have unlimited social media access but very little access to the rest of the internet. This likely explains why 95 percent of all Brazilian internet users say they mostly go <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/media/com_mediaibge/arquivos/c62c9d551093e4b8e9d9810a6d3bafff.pdf">online for messaging apps and social media</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the “rest of the internet” is precisely where Brazilians might have verified the political news sent to them on WhatsApp during the 2018 election. Essentially, fact-checking is <a href="https://www.cetic.br/noticia/acesso-a-internet-por-banda-larga-volta-a-crescer-nos-domicilios-brasileiros/">too expensive for the average Brazilian</a>.</p>
<h2>Concern over Africa’s elections</h2>
<p>Democracies in Africa, where more than a <a href="https://theconversation.com/taking-africas-democratic-temperature-as-a-dozen-countries-prepare-for-polls-107675">dozen countries will hold elections in 2019</a>, are vulnerable to the same kind of lopsided access to information that influenced Brazil’s presidential vote.</p>
<p>As in Brazil, many Africans get <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/27/facebook-free-basics-developing-markets">stripped-down internet access</a> through Facebook’s Internet.org and Free Basics platforms. But, worryingly, most African countries have little or no data protection and no <a href="http://www.networkneutrality.info/sources.html">net neutrality</a> requirements that internet providers treat all digital content equally, without favoring specific apps. </p>
<p>In my analysis, Facebook and a handful of tech companies are now racing to <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/luca-belli/scramble-for-data-and-need-for-network-self-determination">collect and monetize</a> the data gathered through sponsored apps, allowing them to profile millions of Africans. Lax government oversight means that <a href="http://fortune.com/2017/01/11/nir-eyal-hook-model/">people</a> may never be informed that they pay for these “free” apps by exposing their personal information to data mining by private companies. </p>
<p>Such personal information is exceedingly profitable to advertisers in Africa, where Western-style public polling and consumer surveys is still rare. It is easy to imagine how valuable targeted advertising would be for political candidates and lobbies in the lead-up to Africa’s 2019 elections. </p>
<h2>Move fast and break democracy</h2>
<p>Democracy cannot thrive when the electorate is intentionally misinformed about candidates, parties and policies. </p>
<p>Political debate driven by likes, shares and angry comments on social media increases <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-each-side-of-the-partisan-divide-thinks-the-other-is-living-in-an-alternate-reality-71458">polarization</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-there-are-costs-to-moral-outrage-78729">distorts healthy public discourse</a>. Yet evidence shows that <a href="https://theconversation.com/audiences-love-the-anger-alex-jones-or-someone-like-him-will-be-back-101168">insults, lies and polemics</a> are what best drive the user engagement that generates that precious personal data. </p>
<p>For over a decade, social networks have been associated with free communication, unfettered by gatekeepers like news editors or fact-checkers. Many in Silicon Valley and beyond saw this <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-internet-freedom-a-tool-for-democracy-or-authoritarianism-61956">innovative disruption</a> as broadly beneficial for society. </p>
<p>That can be true when social networks are just one of many ways that people can engage in open and pluralistic debate. But when just a handful of apps are available to the majority of users, serving as the sole channel for democratic dialogue, social media can be easily manipulated to poisonous ends. </p>
<p>Mark Zuckerberg’s longstanding motto was, “Move fast and break things.”
That <a href="https://mashable.com/2014/04/30/facebooks-new-mantra-move-fast-with-stability/">catchphrase was retired in April 2018</a>, perhaps because it is increasingly evident that democracy is among the things that Facebook and friends have left broken.</p>
<p><em>The headline of this story was changed slightly after publication.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106476/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luca Belli receives funding from the Open Society Foundations, the Council of Europe, the Internet Society. The views expressed in this article do not represent the opinions of any entity with which he is associated.</span></em></p>Facebook retired its ‘Move fast and break things’ slogan – perhaps because, as new research from Brazil confirms, democracy is among the things left broken by online misinformation and fake news.Luca Belli, Professor of Internet Governance and Regulation, School of Law, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/907942018-01-29T11:30:42Z2018-01-29T11:30:42ZPresidential corruption verdict shows just how flawed Brazil’s justice system is<p>On Jan. 24, a Brazilian appeals court <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/brazil-on-edge-as-appeals-decision-nears-in-ex-president-lula-corruption-case/2018/01/24/e34ecccc-ff9b-11e7-86b9-8908743c79dd_story.html">upheld a criminal conviction against former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva</a>, rocking Brazil’s already <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-crisis-is-a-graduation-dilemma-and-theres-no-easy-way-out-77849">turbulent</a> political scene. The verdict, which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/brazil-president-lula-convicted-corruption">confirms a 2017 ruling</a> against the wildly popular Workers’ Party leader on corruption charges, could carry a prison sentence of up to 10 years. </p>
<p>It may also make Lula <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-brazils-clean-record-law">ineligible to run</a> in Brazil’s October presidential election. The 72-year-old is currently his party’s nominee and a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/it-s-jail-or-the-presidency-for-lula-as-key-brazil-ruling-looms">favorite to win the race</a>.</p>
<p>Lula’s lawyer has <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-brazil-lula-sentence-20180124-htmlstory.html">deemed</a> the appeals court verdict “a legal farce masquerading as justice.” Many Lula supporters agree, saying the ruling amounts to a preemptive presidential coup by the right wing.</p>
<p>His opponents, on the other hand, call the ruling a major victory against political corruption.</p>
<p>It’s a complicated case, but in my analysis, neither side has it quite right. As a Brazilian constitutional law professor and <a href="http://direitosp.fgv.br/supremoempauta">Supreme Court researcher</a>, I see Lula’s trials as a marquee example of Brazil’s flawed and inconsistent justice system. It confirms that Brazilian judges are on a moral quest to “cleanse” politics – and they’re willing to bend the law to do it. </p>
<h2>Brazil behind Lula</h2>
<p>The Jan. 24 verdict has upended Brazilian politics. That’s because Lula is not simply a former president convicted of corruption. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lula for president?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/Gbhkk3">Agência Brasil Fotografias/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Lula left office in 2010 after two four-year terms with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-lula-poll/brazils-lula-to-leave-with-record-high-popularity-idUSTRE6BF4O620101216">an 80-percent approval rating</a>. In 2009, Barack Obama called him “<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/brazils-lula-most-popular-politician-earth-79355">the most popular politician on Earth</a>. </p>
<p>Eight years later, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/it-s-jail-or-the-presidency-for-lula-as-key-brazil-ruling-looms">polls show Lula leading by 18 points over his closest rival</a> in the 2018 presidential race, despite <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-lula-idUSKBN14421S">multiple recent indictments on graft charges</a>.</p>
<p>The loyalty derives largely from the Lula administration’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/dec/17/brazil-bolsa-familia-decade-anniversary-poverty-relief">success in markedly decreasing hunger and poverty in Brazil</a>. As president Lula launched the Bolsa Família program, which gave cash to millions of poor families. He also created tuition incentives helped working-class students go to college and improved access to electricity. </p>
<p>Recently, though, reputation has been tarnished somewhat. Since 2012, the Supreme Court has convicted <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-lula/brazils-supreme-court-convicts-lula-aides-of-corruption-idUSBRE8981ID20121010">four Lula allies</a> for orchestrating a sustained bribery scheme called ”<a href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/11/economist-explains-14">Mensalão</a>.“ The cabinet members and ministers paid members of congress 30,000 reais – roughly US$10,000 – each month in exchange for legislative support on key issues. </p>
<p>Lula was never charged in the Mensalão, and he claims <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21568722-historic-trial-those-guilty-legislative-votes-cash-scheme-draws-close">he knew nothing</a> about it. </p>
<h2>The justice system against Lula?</h2>
<p>He was not able to escape <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-massive-petrobras-corruption-scandal-is-upending-brazilian-politics-43939">Operation Car Wash</a>, a massive corruption investigation lead by the popular judge <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/world/americas/judge-sergio-moro-brazil-anti-corruption.html">Sérgio Moro</a>. Indeed, it was Moro who in 2017 convicted Lula of graft for receiving a free penthouse apartment from a construction company, OAS, which had benefited from <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39194395">illegal government contracts during Lula’s administration</a>.</p>
<p>The Jan. 24 appeals court ruling upheld that conviction unanimously. A three-judge panel found the former president guilty <a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/01/24/lula-brazil-corruption-conviction-car-wash/">on several grounds</a>, and bolstered some charges largely unsubstantiated in the original ruling. </p>
<p>Mainly, they found that early in his administration Lula had used his political power to influence the board and leadership of Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company. In 2003 and 2004, Petrobras went on to make <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/3/18/11260924/petrobras-brazil">numerous illegal infrastructure development</a> contracts, with OAS and other firms. </p>
<p>The appellate judges determined that there was no need to prove how, specifically, Lula helped OAS, since it’s reasonable to believe that a sitting president would have known about and endorsed his subordinates’ illegal contracts scheme. </p>
<p>The judges also agreed that Lula and his wife, Marisa Letícia Lula da Silva, had shown suspicious interest in an apartment owned by OAS. Though they never purchased it or even lived there, the couple suggested specific renovations to the space. Those projects were completed. </p>
<p>Essentially, Brazilian courts have now twice found Lula guilty of corrupt dealings with OAS beyond any reasonable doubt. In legal terms, though, the shaky evidence shows only that something fishy was going on with that OAS apartment. For many Brazilians, "fishy” seems insufficient to disqualify a presidential front-runner. </p>
<p>The decision looks more dubious considering that Brazil’s current president, Michel Temer, dodged criminal prosecution for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/world/americas/brazil-michel-temer-corruption.html">a September 2017 indictment</a> after his chief of staff was caught leaving a business lunch <a href="http://en.mercopress.com/2017/05/24/temer-running-out-of-special-aides-to-corruption-arrests-one-even-returned-a-bag-with-hush-money">with a briefcase full of hush money</a> allegedly meant for Temer. </p>
<h2>Brazil’s flawed judiciary</h2>
<p>That still doesn’t prove that Lula’s prosecution is political. Frankly, the Brazilian judiciary is prone to inconsistencies and to ignoring the due process of law. </p>
<p>Brazil has the world’s <a href="http://www.prisonstudies.org/highest-to-lowest/prison-population-total?field_region_taxonomy_tid=All">third highest prison population</a>, with some 660,000 incarcerated people. Around <a href="http://www.prisonstudies.org/country/brazil">35 percent of them have not yet been tried</a>, and the vast majority of prisoners are poor, young black men facing lengthy sentences for charges that <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/05/justice-poor-brazil-170511102159339.html">white defendants almost never see</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, there is a punitive streak among Brazilian prosecutors and judges. Historically, though, <a href="http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1806-64452007000100003&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en">the judiciary has gone easy</a> on rich defendants with the best defense attorneys money could buy. </p>
<p>In a way, what Lula’s verdict shows is that the judiciary’s instinct to punish – normally reserved for pickpocketers and low-level drug dealers – has now been unleashed on some of Brazil’s most powerful people. The contrast with Temer’s lack of prosecution is another example of unequal treatment under the law. </p>
<h2>Moralizing judges</h2>
<p>When the Mensalão scandal exposed Brazil’s pervasive corruption, many citizens came to see the judiciary as the last democratic bastion in a mostly rotten republic. In doing so, they ignored its many flaws. </p>
<p>Worse still, it seems that judges like Moro and others, too, believe the idea that the criminal justice system alone can clean up politics. </p>
<p>And since the wheels of <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/11/05/359830235/brazil-the-land-of-many-lawyers-and-very-slow-justice">justice turn slowly in Brazil</a> – where cases can take up to 12 years to conclude – judges as high as the Supreme Court have found ad hoc, unprecedented ways to rebuke politicians they believe to be corrupt. </p>
<p>They have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-lula/brazil-supreme-court-justice-upholds-barring-of-lula-from-post-idUSKCN0WO2MH">barred ministers</a> <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Brazil-New-Labor-Minister-Banned-For-Not-Paying-Chauffeurs-20180110-0035.html">from taking office</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/05/speaker-of-brazils-lower-house-eduardo-cunha-suspended">suspended congressmen</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36211526">imprisoned senators</a> and <a href="http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2017/09/1922148-brazils-supreme-court-suspends-aecio-neves-from-senate-and-orders-house-arrest-at-night.shtml">even put legislators under house arrest</a> – often without clear constitutional grounds or legal precedent for doing so. At bottom, the work of a judge is to apply established law or, when creating a new precedent, to do so with clear new rules.</p>
<p>These judicial interventions have unduly influenced Brazilian politics. So far, the Workers’ Party has seen more prosecution than other major parties, though <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/15/brazil-corruption-investigation-list-politicians-michel-temer">that seems to be changing</a>.</p>
<p>All of this has increased the popular perception that Brazil’s court system is just as politicized as politics itself. As a result, confidence in the judiciary has been <a href="https://portal.fgv.br/en/news/2017-confidence-brazilian-justice-index-public-confidence-institutions-drops">dropping steadily for years</a>. </p>
<p>Lula’s lost appeal is the perfect distillation of what ails the Brazilian legal system. It is one part judicial activism in the name of anti-corruption, one part judicial disregard for legal precedents and due process. With the good intention of “fixing” politics, Brazil’s judges may be breaking the rule of law. </p>
<p>What they are not doing, I would argue, is staging a partisan judicial coup against the Workers’ Party.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Lula’s case will be again appealed and eventually decided by a higher court. That process could take many months. In the meantime, an electoral court must determine whether to let Lula run for president in October. </p>
<p>To do so, Brazilian judges will again find themselves deciding a profoundly political question: Would Lula’s candidacy strengthen or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/world/americas/brazil-presidential-electionluiz-inacio-lula-da-silva.html">subvert Brazilian democracy</a>?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rubens Glezer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An appeals court ruling against popular Brazilian ex-president Lula has hotly divided Brazil. A legal scholar argues that this is a case of activist judges taking their anti-graft crusade too far.Rubens Glezer, Constitutional Law Professor, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/780142017-06-14T05:47:44Z2017-06-14T05:47:44ZBrazil’s biggest problem isn’t corruption — it’s murder<p>Somewhere between outraged and perplexed, Brazilians have been bombarded with news about their political underworld, covering everything from <a href="http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2032546-mas-de-4500-millones-debera-pagarle-odebrecht-al-estado-argentino">graft scandals</a> and political intrigues to, on June 10, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/10/brazilian-court-dismisses-corruption-case-againt-president-michel-temer">a narrow Supreme Court vote</a> to save Michel Temer’s presidency. </p>
<p>Recently, the Brazilian version of the Netflix series House of Cards even tweeted that it’s “hard to compete” with the country’s realpolitik.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"864992970994368512"}"></div></p>
<p>But rampant public corruption is not the only threat to Brazil’s democracy. It’s not even the most dangerous one. </p>
<h2>Social panic</h2>
<p>Brazil is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/10/28/as-crime-wave-hits-brazil-daily-death-toll-tops-syria/#5356a4d71b7f">one of the world’s murder capitals</a>, with 60,000 homicides every year in a population of almost 208 million. Fully 10% of all people killed globally each year are Brazilians. </p>
<p>As demonstrated during recent bloody <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-war-on-drugs-fuels-deadly-prison-riots-in-brazil-67337">prison uprisings</a> and police strikes in <a href="http://epoca.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2017/02/greve-dos-policiais-militares-no-espirito-santo-e-no-rio-de-janeiro.html">Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro</a>, the authorities seem incapable of dealing with the problem. </p>
<p>There have been some successful public safety initiatives over the past decade. Police reforms and anti-violence initiatives in <a href="https://news.vice.com/article/the-murder-rate-is-down-in-rio-but-its-cops-continue-to-kill">Rio de Janeiro</a> and <a href="http://www.academia.edu/7411867/Pact_for_Life_and_the_Reduction_of_Homicides_in_the_State_of_Pernambuco_-_Stability_International_Journal_of_Security_and_Development_3_1_18_pp._1-15_2014">Pernambuco</a> managed to reduce homicide rates by up to 50%, but only temporarily. In these places, too, murder is on the rise. </p>
<p>Almost 50 million Brazilians aged 16 or older – nearly a third of the adult population – know someone who has been murdered, according to research conducted for <em><a href="https://www.instintodevida.org">Instinto de Vida</a></em> (Life Instinct), an Open Society Foundations-funded campaign shedding light on Latin America’s homicide problem. </p>
<p>Almost 5 million have been injured by firearms and some 15 million know someone <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-brazilians-believe-that-criminals-have-no-rights-but-a-startling-number-do-75987">who was killed by the police</a>, one of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazilian-police-show-high-use-of-deadly-force-1415664824">the world’s deadliest forces</a>. </p>
<p>In Rio de Janeiro’s poor <em>favelas</em>, frequent <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-tanks-grenades-and-guns-police-wage-war-on-rio-de-janeiros-poorest-73182">military-style police operations </a> and extrajudicial police killings of alleged gang members are common. Locals live in daily panic. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://g1.globo.com/espirito-santo/noticia/2017/02/sem-policia-nas-ruas-es-tem-dia-de-roubos-saques-e-mortes.html">social hysteria</a> caused by Brazil’s homicide crisis, combined with growing disillusionment with politics, is giving rise to a markedly undemocratic strain of politics. </p>
<p>Today, public officials regularly invoke sexist, racist and xenophobic discourses to justify punitive policies that criminalise huge swaths of society, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-brazilians-believe-that-criminals-have-no-rights-but-a-startling-number-do-75987">gang members</a> to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39994177">drug users</a> and <a href="http://www.survivalinternational.org/news/10076">ethnic minorities</a>. </p>
<p>Like Donald Trump, France’s Marine Le Pen and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-history-of-dutch-populism-from-the-murder-of-pim-fortuyn-to-the-rise-of-geert-wilders-74483">Holland’s Geert Wilders</a>, who all use the threat of terrorism <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-is-still-a-threat-to-europe-heres-how-to-contain-it-78821">to stoke fear and intolerance</a>, Brazilian leaders, too, have determined that imposing order is more important than building a stronger society. Only here, fear is fuelled by unceasing violence and the clear incapacity of public security institutions to address the problem. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/handle/10438/6618">survey by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation</a>, 36% of the Brazilian population feels satisfied with the police; only 25% say they trust them. This distrust exacerbates perceptions of danger. </p>
<h2>Brazil’s authoritarian personality</h2>
<p>At this juncture, Brazilians might seek out leaders who reject violence and impunity. Instead, they seem inclined to dismantle the post-dictatorship-era rule of law heralded by the <a href="http://english.tse.jus.br/arquivos/federal-constitution">1988 Constitution</a>, signed after democracy was restored.</p>
<p>According to unpublished national survey by the NGO <a href="http://www.forumseguranca.org.br/">Brazilian Forum on Public Safety</a>, which interviewed 2,087 people across the nation, 69% of Brazilians aged 16 or older agree that “what this country needs, above all, before laws or political plans, is some brave leaders, tireless and dedicated in whom the people can deposit their faith”.</p>
<p>Fans of German philosophy may recognise that sentence; it’s a translation of a question from Theodor Adorno’s 1950 <a href="https://www.psychologistworld.com/influence-personality/authoritarian-personality">classic study on the authoritarian personality</a>. In it, Adorno sought to understand how Nazism had attracted so many Germans in the early 20th century, concluding that periods of crisis are fertile for the advance of authoritarianism. </p>
<p>Looking at Adorno’s study alongside the Brazilian Forum’s results makes for dire forecasts about Brazil’s democratic future. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173459/original/file-20170612-3104-16z1gqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173459/original/file-20170612-3104-16z1gqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173459/original/file-20170612-3104-16z1gqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173459/original/file-20170612-3104-16z1gqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173459/original/file-20170612-3104-16z1gqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173459/original/file-20170612-3104-16z1gqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173459/original/file-20170612-3104-16z1gqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bolsonaro, centre, openly longs for dictatorship.</span>
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<p>The national desire for authoritarian leadership is personified by Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain from Rio de Janeiro state who is expected to run for president in 2018. Bolsonaro, who openly calls for <a href="http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/03/1865771-nao-e-a-imprensa-ou-o-stf-que-vai-falar-o-limite-pra-mim-diz-bolsonaro.shtml">a return to military rule in Brazil</a>, draws large crowds to gymnasiums and schools across the country with speeches that denounce the “human rights agenda”. He has <a href="https://www.facebook.com/jairmessias.bolsonaro/">4.35 million Facebook followers</a>. </p>
<p>Police officers – the same force that, in theory, should be guardians of the law – are <a href="https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/678001695142580225?lang=en">quite taken with him</a>. For cops, who confront Brazil’s dangerously out-of-hand criminality every day, it seems becoming hardline on law and order is starting to sound pretty good. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"678001695142580225"}"></div></p>
<h2>A corrosive process</h2>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly for a country where evangelical Christianity <a href="http://www.alternet.org/belief/dramatic-religious-shift-brazil-evangelicals-are-rapidly-overtaking-catholics">is exploding in popularity</a>, the study found that 64% of respondents also believe that “we should all have absolute faith in a supernatural power, whose decisions we must abide by.”</p>
<p>As religiosity <a href="https://theconversation.com/rio-de-janeiros-new-evangelical-mayor-could-threaten-the-citys-famed-diversity-68138">infiltrates Brazil’s politics</a>, faith is becoming something of a new order, creating a complex symbiosis between state and religion that organically influences public opinion and policy-making.</p>
<p>When people believe that “the policeman is a warrior of God who must impose order and protect the good people” – an opinion held by 53% of Brazilians – it justifies two damaging behaviours. First, it condones <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-brazilians-believe-that-criminals-have-no-rights-but-a-startling-number-do-75987">widespread police brutality</a>, and, second it allows for tolerance of local rule by criminal organisations (because if you can overpower the agents of God, then you can definitely impose your will on the population). </p>
<p>Infusing public order with private morality to justify authoritarianism is both more subtle and powerful than than the more classic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/opinion/in-brazil-a-new-nostalgia-for-military-dictatorship.html">nostalgia for military rule</a> when times get tough. </p>
<p>Brazilians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/12/world-cup-brazil-democracy-dictatorship-human-rights-military-police">fought hard to regain civil and human rights</a> after two decades of a bloody military dictatorship. Now, 30 years later, paralysed by crime and violence, they’re again flirting with authoritarianism and intolerance. </p>
<p>In this corrosive process, <a href="http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/is-gang-war-brazil-behind-recent-violence-paraguay">organised crime has doubled down</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/facing-unemployment-austerity-and-scandal-brazil-struggles-to-keep-it-together-71663">corruption has multiplied</a>, and instability and danger have warped the nation’s politics. To save its democracy, Brazil urgently needs to find a new solution for public safety. Otherwise, fear, crime and homicide will win. </p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored by Samira Bueno, PhD candidate at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation and executive director of the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78014/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Renato Sérgio de Lima is associated with the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety. In that capacity, he has received funding from the Open Society Foundations.</span></em></p>Some 60,000 Brazilians are killed each year, accounting for 10% of all homicides worldwide. As terrorised voters look to authoritarian leaders to impose order, Brazil’s democracy hangs in the balance.Renato Sérgio de Lima, Professor, School of Business Administration (EAESP), Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/715072017-01-22T21:19:04Z2017-01-22T21:19:04Z2017 ou l’avènement de l’Homme fort<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153610/original/image-20170120-5227-po767j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1920%2C1040&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Qui est le plus fort ? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/donkeyhotey/28512617446/">DonkeyHotey/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>L’investiture de Donald Trump vendredi 20 janvier illustre parfaitement l’ampleur d’un phénomène qui pourrait bien donner le ton à la politique internationale dans les années à venir : la montée en puissance de l’Homme fort.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-erdogan-is-turning-into-a-strongman-1482494408">Le terme</a> est utilisé de façon assez générale pour décrire les candidats au profil autoritaire, très portés sur l’ordre et la sécurité, déterminés à affaiblir les institutions et à concentrer le pouvoir dans l’exécutif.</p>
<p>Ces dirigeants ont tendance à rejeter le pluralisme, soit l’idée même que le pouvoir politique est distribué entre plusieurs acteurs, gouvernementaux et non-gouvernementaux. À la place, ils se proclament souvent comme seuls et uniques représentants du « peuple ».</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/erdogan-la-guerre-tous-azimuts-64916">Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a> en Turquie, <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-fuite-en-avant-perpetuelle-du-populisme-russe-70774">Vladimir Poutine</a> en Russie et <a href="https://theconversation.com/comment-nicolas-maduro-se-maintient-au-pouvoir-au-venezuela-60751">Nicolás Maduro</a> au Venezuela sont des exemples classiques d’hommes forts.</p>
<p>Interpellant facilement leurs opposants pour les qualifier <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/08/erdogan-presidency-risky-gamble-20148284822695561.html">d’antipatriotiques</a>, ils les attaquent en les accusant de servir des <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/venezuela-breaking-point-food-shortages-protests-maduro">« intérêts étrangers »</a>. Ces politiciens entretiennent ainsi avec soin et constance une <a href="http://www.philomag.com/les-livres/notre-selection/quest-ce-que-le-populisme-definir-enfin-la-menace-19294">forme morale</a> d’antipluralisme.</p>
<p>Les hommes forts se repaissent de la polarisation du pouvoir : une fois élus, les trois dirigeants cités ont décrit l’opposition <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/venezuela-opposition-votes-put-maduro-trial-161025181844551.html">comme illégitime</a>, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-opposition-enough-signatures-recall-vote-maduro-223505009.html">immorale</a> et ont qualifié ses membres <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2015.1076214?src=recsys&journalCode=fdem20">d’« ennemis du peuple »</a>. Maduro a même appelé ceux qui ont voté contre lui des <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/06/01/Maduro-Venezuelas-opposition-committed-treason-for-urging-OAS-action/2141464793684/">traîtres</a>.</p>
<p>Cela ne vous rappelle-t-il pas un certain homme politique américain récemment élu ? Indice : en novembre 2016, Donald Trump a fait référence aux <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/27/us/politics/trump-adviser-steps-up-searing-attack-on-romney.html">« millions d’électeurs illégaux »</a> afin d’expliquer pourquoi il a perdu le vote populaire.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153594/original/image-20170120-5260-1e4pzws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153594/original/image-20170120-5260-1e4pzws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153594/original/image-20170120-5260-1e4pzws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153594/original/image-20170120-5260-1e4pzws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153594/original/image-20170120-5260-1e4pzws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153594/original/image-20170120-5260-1e4pzws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153594/original/image-20170120-5260-1e4pzws.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Le président Poutine offre un ouvrage sur Hugo Chavez à son homologue Nicolás Maduro.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/multimedia/">Kremlin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bien sûr, certains hommes forts sont plus autoritaires que d’autres, et un cadre institutionnel ferme peut limiter leurs champs d’action.</p>
<p>Trump a-t-il fait son entrée dans le grand club des populistes autoritaires, et donc aux côtés de Poutine et d’Erdoğan ? Nous le découvrirons bientôt.</p>
<h2>Une année de défis pour la démocratie</h2>
<p>2017 verra donc l’arrivée au pouvoir d’hommes forts à Washington, Budapest, Moscou, Manille et Caracas. Que signifie cette situation, inédite dans l’histoire récente, pour la scène politique internationale ?</p>
<p>Avant tout, elle symbolise une profonde <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/is-this-the-end-of-us-soft-power-in-asia">crise de la diplomatie</a>,
avec un risque réel de contagion. Sous leurs avatars les plus extrêmes, comme les leaders autoritaires du Venezuela et de la Russie, l’<a href="http://www.lecourrierderussie.com/politique/presidentielle-2012-actualites/2011/05/vladimir-ryjkov/">organisation d’élections libres</a> n’est même plus nécessaire puisque ces présidents savent déjà ce que veut vraiment « le peuple ».</p>
<p>Mais les hommes forts peuvent être aussi se montrer très combatifs électoralement quand les électeurs ont le sentiment que les acteurs politiques traditionnels ne répondent pas à leurs attentes, comme nous l’avons vu dans le <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-philippines-incomplete-people-power-revolution-paved-the-way-for-rodrigo-duterte-65972">cas des Philippines</a>.</p>
<p>La victoire de l’élan électoral populiste, illustré par le <a href="https://theconversation.com/Brexit-is-on-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-experts-respond-61576">Brexit</a> et l’élection de <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-wins-us-election-scholars-from-around-the-world-react-68282">Trump</a>, n’a pas eu lieu dans de petits pays à la visibilité limitée, mais, au contraire, s’est ancrée dans les deux plus anciennes et plus expérimentées des démocraties contemporaines. Or, ces dernières, malgré leur nombreux écueils, ont joué un rôle crucial dans l’exercice démocratique à travers le monde.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153604/original/image-20170120-5221-51qohg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153604/original/image-20170120-5221-51qohg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153604/original/image-20170120-5221-51qohg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153604/original/image-20170120-5221-51qohg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153604/original/image-20170120-5221-51qohg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153604/original/image-20170120-5221-51qohg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153604/original/image-20170120-5221-51qohg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Les pro-Brexit, juin 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/garryknight/27661060226">Garry Knight/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ainsi, l’une des conséquences de la conquête populiste de la Maison-Blanche marquera le déclin de l’influence américaine.</p>
<p>D’ailleurs, l’élection de Trump a déjà eu un <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-presidential-election-soft-power-by-shashi-tharoor-2016-11">impact négatif sur le soft-power américain</a>. Les États-Unis sont désormais moins capables d’attirer et de coopter (plutôt que de s’imposer par la force), affaiblissant la légitimité du pouvoir démocratique ailleurs dans le monde.</p>
<p>Cette tendance se révélera particulièrement vraie si Trump s’entête dans certaines de ses promesses de campagne, notamment dans son projet de discrimination à l’encontre des personnes de confession musulmane.</p>
<p>À mesure que se renforceront et se développeront les mouvements et courants <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2016/02/06/le-mouvement-anti-islam-pegida-appelle-a-manifester-dans-toute-l-europe_4860724_3214.html">islamophobes</a> dans les démocraties occidentales, les États-Unis, parmi d’autres, perdront toute légitimité dans leurs critiques des gouvernements chinois, birmans et d’autres, sur leur façon de traiter les minorités religieuses.</p>
<p>Sous le gouvernement Trump, il est fort probable que les États-Unis dépensent moins d’argent en soutien de différents groupes de défense des droits de l’homme et pour la démocratie.</p>
<p>S’il est sain et légitime de critiquer la politique étrangère américaine sur de nombreux dossiers, il faut également reconnaître l’investissement massif de Washington – <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/01/13/democracy-aid-at-25-time-to-choose-pub-57701">près de 10 milliards de dollars par an</a> depuis dix ans, auprès d’ONG, de journalistes et de groupes d’opposition au sein de régimes dictatoriaux à travers le monde.</p>
<p>Trump lui, a affirmé très clairement qu’il ne voit aucun intérêt à défendre ou promouvoir la démocratie à l’étranger, et il a <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/01/05/prospects-for-u.s.-democracy-promotion-under-trump-pub-66588?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWXpobE5tRXlPREJtWmpSaCIsInQiOiJ3OUxjZHlDQ2N5b21CM2RKQ3BLR2hnUTA5V3RcL0tSVkFCc2lObUtjRE5uTFZFdk9yZnJHZkdvWU1od0FUQWpYZnZWb2NwY04ySm1vNlZjXC9ORFNSWkJRT0V0bW1iTGRvZG4xSWZtS09lWkxLYWFFaytRVkUyZ1ByQU13T0w5WmMyIn0%3D">d’ailleurs vanté les mérites</a> d’hommes forts tels que Vladimir Poutin, Viktor Orbán et Rodrigo Duterte. Ces deux prises de position réduiront considérablement les possibilités de pression sur les gouvernements autoritaires dans le monde.</p>
<h2>Vérité, pluralité et stabilité en voie de disparition</h2>
<p>Le <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-poutine-erdogan-comment-expliquer-le-succes-des-cesars-du-xxi-siecle-71421">retour</a> à l’échelle mondiale des hommes forts a coïncidé avec l’ère de la <a href="https://theconversation.com/post-verite-la-raison-du-plus-fou-70712">post-vérité</a>.</p>
<p>Cette tendance menace l’avantage crucial des démocraties par rapport aux régimes autoritaires : l’usage de données disponibles, transparentes afin de formuler les politiques publiques et de bénéficier de débats justes afin d’élire des représentants et dirigeants bien informés et compétents. Elles sont certes bruyantes, mais au final relativement modérées et productrices d’une certaine stabilité.</p>
<p>La prolifération de <a href="https://theconversation.com/comment-la-gauche-liberale-a-invente-la-post-verite-69310">fausses informations</a> présente également un nouveau défi pour les démocraties.</p>
<p>Les organes de presse, luttant pour s’adapter à l’ère digitale, n’ont pas les moyens de financer le journalisme d’investigation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/without-local-papers-regional-voices-would-struggle-to-be-heard-26620">notamment au niveau local</a>. Pendant ce temps, les réseaux et médias sociaux contribuent à la <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/resource/fragmentation-social-media-reuters-institute-digital-news-report-2014">fragmentation sociale</a>. Aujourd’hui, seules quelques sources d’information concentrées diffusent auprès d’une large proportion de la société.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mauvais pour la démocratie, mais du pain béni pour les hommes forts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photo-1903774/">Pixabay</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>En résulte un environnement marqué par la méfiance, véritable cadeau du ciel pour les hommes forts de l’ère post-vérité tels que Trump ou Poutine.</p>
<p>Les démocraties tendent également à embrasser la diversité et la mondialisation, se faisant les chantres de l’intégration de migrants du monde entier. Dans la plupart des démocraties occidentales, le pourcentage de la population née à l’étranger est resté constant, <a href="https://data.oecd.org/fr/migration/personnes-nees-a-l-etranger.htm">aux environs de 10 % depuis plusieurs années</a>, au Canada et en Australie, <a href="https://data.oecd.org/fr/migration/personnes-nees-a-l-etranger.htm">cette proportion atteint même les 20 %</a>.</p>
<p>Le modèle de gouvernance de l’homme fort repose sur la division et la peur : Trump comme Poutine soulignent constamment les dangers que représentent l’Autre et l’étranger, qu’il s’agisse des <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-who-are-the-millions-of-bad-hombres-slated-for-us-deportation-68818">« bad hombres »</a> du Mexique pour Trump ou des ONG russes <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/11/russia-four-years-of-putins-foreign-agents-law-to-shackle-and-silence-ngos/">financées par l’étranger</a> pour Poutine. La plupart des observateurs s’attendent désormais à ce que les <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-trump-means-for-us-trade-and-globalisation-68692">États-Unis se retirent des accords d’échanges bilatéraux</a> engagés et même des <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/world/europe/donald-trump-nato.html">alliances</a> en terme de coopération militaire et de défense, réduisant d’autant plus le rôle des États-Unis sur la scène internationale.</p>
<p>Les démocraties sont désormais perçues comme des régimes plus créatrices d’instabilité économique que les régimes autoritaires, un fait impensable il y a quelques années. De plus, si l’on considère que les sondages <a href="https://theconversation.com/des-sondeurs-desarmes-face-a-la-zone-muette-68518">ont failli</a> à prédire le Brexit et Trump, les marchés seront désormais encore plus volatiles à chaque élection.</p>
<p>En soit, il s’agit d’une mauvaise nouvelle : les investisseurs ont avant tout besoin de stabilité et de prévisions crédibles. En même temps que l’ère de l’homme fort, l’année 2017 risque bien d’être celle d’une grande instabilité économique aux conséquences désastreuses.</p>
<p>Ce scénario, s’il se fige dans la durée au sein des démocraties, risque de mettre en danger l’essence même de la gouvernance démocratique, d’un point de vue moral, stratégique et économique.</p>
<h2>Trump et Poutine : un couple heureux ?</h2>
<p>Trump ne connaît pas Poutine, avait célèbrement déclaré <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-2nd-2016-presidential-debate/i-dont-know-putin-trump-says/?utm_term=.e17a4248e228">dans un débat en octobre 2016</a> le président américain en devenir.</p>
<p>Même s’ils devenaient amis, cela ne garantirait en rien une relation stable entre les deux pays. L’idée qu’une amitié personnelle entre deux hommes forts produirait une alliance forte est complètement fausse. Cette dernière dépend d’abord de leur capacité à s’entendre sur des accords institutionnels, lesquels sont en général bien plus pérennes.</p>
<p>Erdoğan était si proche du syrien Bashar Al Assad que leurs <a href="http://origin-www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-24/putin-has-misjudged-turkey-s-erdogan">familles partaient en vacances ensemble</a>. Ce qui ne les a pas empêchés de se déchirer et de produire l’une des inimitiés les plus importantes du Moyen-Orient.</p>
<p>Il semble qu’actuellement la Russie pourrait grandement bénéficier d’un changement d’air politique aux États-Unis. Trump a d’ailleurs parlé en termes très élogieux de <a href="http://ktla.com/2016/11/14/putin-calls-to-congratulate-trump-who-sees-strong-and-enduring-relationship-with-russia/">son homologue</a> russe, en mentionnant à peine l’<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/us/politics/trumps-press-conference-highlights-russia.html">immiscion du Kremlin</a> dans les élections américaines.</p>
<p>Mais l’un pourrait très rapidement <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/12/16/donald-trump-doesnt-know-it-yet-but-vladimir-putin-is-going-to-dump-him/?utm_term=.7bf193e772c7">lâcher l’autre</a>.</p>
<p>Bien que les hommes politiques savent généralement séparer leurs sentiments personnels de leurs actes politiques, Trump et Poutin, vains et endurcis l’un comme l’autre, seront certainement peu enclins au compromis ou à faire machine arrière si leur égo était menaçé.</p>
<p>De telles incertitudes, sans précédent, présagent de mauvais augures pour la croissance. Cependant, pour les populistes du monde entier, la présence d’hommes forts à Washington et à Moscou est un signal sans équivoque.</p>
<p>L’élection présidentielle en France, où Marine Le Pen est une <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/is-france-ready-for-marine-le-pen/a-37086518">candidate pressentie</a> déterminera si 2017 est vraiment l’année des hommes (ou de la femme) forts.
Sa victoire sonnerait le glas de l’Union européenne. Tandis que les électeurs français et allemands se préparent à voter, les enjeux n’ont jamais été aussi élevés.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Stuenkel ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>L’élection de Donald Trump comme 45ᵉ président des États-Unis marque un nouveau tournant en politique : l’ère assumée de l’homme fort.Oliver Stuenkel, Associate Professor of International Relations, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/708462017-01-20T07:20:14Z2017-01-20T07:20:14ZTrump’s inauguration ushers in 2017, the year of the strongman<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152967/original/image-20170117-9033-1sb0pin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who's stronger?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/KryBNw">DonkeyHotey/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 exemplifies a phenomenon that is likely to shape global politics for years to come: the rise of the strongman. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-erdogan-is-turning-into-a-strongman-1482494408">term</a> is broadly used to describe law-and-order candidates with authoritarian tendencies who weaken institutions and concentrate power in the executive. As leaders, they tend to reject pluralism (the idea that political power is distributed among many institutions, both governmental and nongovernmental). Instead, they often claim to be the exclusive representatives of “the people”.</p>
<p>Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro are classic strongmen. Calling their opponents “<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/08/erdogan-presidency-risky-gamble-20148284822695561.html">unpatriotic</a>” and implying they are guided by “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/venezuela-breaking-point-food-shortages-protests-maduro">foreign interests</a>”, these politicians consistently articulate a moral form of anti-pluralism. </p>
<p>Strongmen thrive on polarisation: once in office, all three of these world leaders have described their opposition as <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/venezuela-opposition-votes-put-maduro-trial-161025181844551.html">illegitimate</a>, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-opposition-enough-signatures-recall-vote-maduro-223505009.html">immoral</a> and “<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2015.1076214?src=recsys&journalCode=fdem20">enemies of the people</a>”; Maduro even called those who voted against him <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/06/01/Maduro-Venezuelas-opposition-committed-treason-for-urging-OAS-action/2141464793684/">traitors</a>. </p>
<p>Does this remind you of any recently triumphant American politician? Hint: in November 2016 Donald Trump referred to “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/27/us/politics/trump-adviser-steps-up-searing-attack-on-romney.html?_r=0">millions of illegal voters</a>” to explain why he lost the popular vote. </p>
<p>Of course, some strongmen are more authoritarian than others, and a firm institutional framework can help limit leaders’ room for manoeuvre. Is Trump in the populist big leagues, with the likes of Putin or Erdoğan? We’ll find out soon.</p>
<h2>A year of democratic challenges</h2>
<p>This year will see strongmen in power in Washington, Budapest, Moscow, Ankara, Manila and Caracas. What does this situation, unprecedented in recent history, mean for global politics? </p>
<p>Above all, it symbolises a profound <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/is-this-the-end-of-us-soft-power-in-asia/">crisis of democracy</a>, with a real risk of contagion. In their most extreme form, as in Venezuela or Russia, such leaders <a href="https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/will-russia-ever-have-free-elections-45264">no longer organise free elections</a>: they’re unnecessary because those presidents already know what “the people” really want.</p>
<p>But strongmen can also be electorally competitive when voters feel that traditional political institutions aren’t meeting expectations, as we’ve seen in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-philippines-incomplete-people-power-revolution-paved-the-way-for-rodrigo-duterte-65972">the Philippines</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-is-on-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-experts-respond-61576">Brexit</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-wins-us-election-scholars-from-around-the-world-react-68282">Trump</a> populist successes did not take place in small countries with limited visibility. Rather, they occurred in the world’s two most mature democracies, which — despite many missteps — have historically played an important role in the flourishing of democracy across the world. </p>
<p>So one consequence of a populist winning the White House will be a decline in American soft power. In fact, Trump’s election has already <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-presidential-election-soft-power-by-shashi-tharoor-2016-11">had a negative affect in this area</a>. The US is less able to attract and co-opt support, rather than to coerce by force. This makes the case for democracy elsewhere in the world much harder. </p>
<p>This will be particularly true if Trump moves forward with some of his campaign promises to discriminate against people of Muslim faith. The stronger <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/new-report-highlights-sharp-rise-in-anti-muslim-attacks-and-environment-of-hate-in-britain-a6739596.html">anti-Islam currents</a> grow in Western democracies, the less the US, among others, can criticise governments in China, Myanmar and elsewhere for how they treat their religious minorities.</p>
<p>Under Trump, the US can also be expected to spend less money on international human rights and democracy groups. One may rightly criticise US foreign policy on many fronts, but we must recognise the massive US government investment in NGOs, journalism and opposition groups living under dictatorships around the world – to the tune of <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/01/13/democracy-aid-at-25-time-to-choose-pub-57701">US$10 billion per year</a> over the past decade.</p>
<p>Trump, by contrast, has made clear that he thinks little of defending or promoting democracy abroad, and has <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/01/05/prospects-for-u.s.-democracy-promotion-under-trump-pub-66588?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWXpobE5tRXlPREJtWmpSaCIsInQiOiJ3OUxjZHlDQ2N5b21CM2RKQ3BLR2hnUTA5V3RcL0tSVkFCc2lObUtjRE5uTFZFdk9yZnJHZkdvWU1od0FUQWpYZnZWb2NwY04ySm1vNlZjXC9ORFNSWkJRT0V0bW1iTGRvZG4xSWZtS09lWkxLYWFFaytRVkUyZ1ByQU13T0w5WmMyIn0%3D">spoken highly</a> of strongmen such as Putin, Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte. Both stances will reduce pressure on authoritarian governments around the world.</p>
<h2>Endangered: truth, plurality and stability</h2>
<p>The global resurgence of strongmen has coincided with the rise of the “<a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21706498-dishonesty-politics-nothing-new-manner-which-some-politicians-now-lie-and">post-truth</a>” era. </p>
<p>This trend threatens to undermine democracies’ key advantage over authoritarian regimes: democracies make ample use of available data to determine public policy and enjoy the benefit of a relatively transparent debate to elect competent, prepared leaders. They are noisy but ultimately moderate and stability-producing. </p>
<p>The proliferation of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trump-dossier-and-verification-in-the-era-of-fake-news-71175">fake news</a> also creates an unprecedented challenge. News organisations, struggling to adapt to the digital era, lack funds for investigative journalism (particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/without-local-papers-regional-voices-would-struggle-to-be-heard-26620">on the local level</a>). Meanwhile, social media is contributing to <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/resource/fragmentation-social-media-reuters-institute-digital-news-report-2014">social fragmentation</a>; today, few news sources speak to large portions of society.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bad for democracy, good for strongmen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photo-1903774/">Pixabay</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The result is an environment marked by a high degree of distrust – easy fodder for post-truth strongmen like Trump and Putin to exploit. </p>
<p>Democracies also tend to embrace diversity and globalisation, with their capacity to integrate migrants from all over the world. In most western democracies, the percentage of the population born abroad has consistently been around <a href="https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-population.htm">10% in recent years</a>; in Canada or Australia it <a href="https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-population.htm">reaches 20%</a>.</p>
<p>The strongman’s governing model, on the other hand, requires a degree of polarisation and fear. Both Trump and Putin consistently point to dangers from abroad, be it “<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/just-who-are-the-millions-of-bad-hombres-slated-for-us-deportation-68818">bad hombres</a></em>” from Mexico (Trump), or foreign-funded <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/11/russia-four-years-of-putins-foreign-agents-law-to-shackle-and-silence-ngos/">NGOs</a> (Putin). Most observers now expect a US retreat from <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-trump-means-for-us-trade-and-globalisation-68692">trade agreements</a> and even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/world/europe/donald-trump-nato.html?_r=0">security alliances</a>, further reducing the United States’ role in global affairs.</p>
<p>Democracies are now seen as creating more economic unpredictability than authoritarian regimes. That would have been impossible to foresee a few years back. And considering that pollsters <a href="https://theconversation.com/eu-referendum-how-the-polls-got-it-wrong-again-61639">failed to predict</a> both Brexit and Trump, markets will be more volatile ahead of elections. That’s bad for the market: investors need, above all, predictability. So we can expect negative economic consequences during 2017, year of the strongman.</p>
<p>The longer such a scenario prevails in democracies around the world, the more endangered democratic governance becomes – morally, strategically and economically. </p>
<h2>Trump and Putin: a match made in heaven?</h2>
<p>Trump doesn’t know Putin, as he famously declared in an October 2016 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-2nd-2016-presidential-debate/i-dont-know-putin-trump-says/?utm_term=.e17a4248e228">debate</a>. But even if they become friends, it’s no guarantee that US-Russia relations will be stable. </p>
<p>The notion that personal friendships between strongmen produce stability is spurious: it depends on interpersonal chemistry over institutional agreements – and the latter are far more durable. </p>
<p>Turkey’s Erdoğan was so close to Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad that <a href="http://origin-www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-24/putin-has-misjudged-turkey-s-erdogan">their families vacationed together</a>. This did not prevent the two from falling out and producing one of the Middle East’s most profound enmities. </p>
<p>Right now, it seems that Russia will benefit greatly from the US’ political sea change, and Trump has <a href="http://ktla.com/2016/11/14/putin-calls-to-congratulate-trump-who-sees-strong-and-enduring-relationship-with-russia/">spoken positively</a> of Putin while barely acknowledging <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/us/politics/trumps-press-conference-highlights-russia.html">Russian interference</a> in the election. </p>
<p>But one could quickly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/12/16/donald-trump-doesnt-know-it-yet-but-vladimir-putin-is-going-to-dump-him/?utm_term=.7bf193e772c7">“dump” the other</a>. Politicians usually know how to separate policy-making from personal feelings. Trump and Putin, on the other hand, vain and thin-skinned, are unlikely to compromise or backtrack if their pride is threatened. </p>
<p>Such unprecedented uncertainty bodes badly for growth prospects in 2017. But strongmen in power in Washington and Moscow bodes well for future populists.</p>
<p>France, where Marine Le Pen is a <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/is-france-ready-for-marine-le-pen/a-37086518">strong contender for the presidency</a>, may be the test case of whether 2017 really is the year of the strongman (or strongwoman). If she wins, it could spell the end of the European Union. </p>
<p>As voters go to the polls in France and Germany later this year, the stakes have never been higher.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Stuenkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Populists now run the United States, Russia, Turkey, and the Philippines — as well as many Latin American and African nations. What does this mean for the world?Oliver Stuenkel, Associate Professor of International Relations, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/685842016-11-15T07:21:49Z2016-11-15T07:21:49ZAfter Trump’s win, can China dislodge Asian nations from the US orbit?<p>It will be in Asia – the economic centre of the 21st century – where the future of <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-western-decline-became-inevitable/256388/">Pax Americana</a> (the peace that has ensued as a result of US hegemony) will be decided. </p>
<p>This continued existence of this peace will depend, to a significant extent, on Washington’s capacity to show that it remains a vital actor in the region despite China’s ascendancy. And, above all, that it is still the <a href="http://www.cfr.org/japan/us-japan-security-alliance/p31437">provider of security guarantees</a> to several of China’s neighbours, such as Japan and South Korea.</p>
<p>If Beijing can bring its neighbours to accept its regional leadership (including its claims in the South China Sea), China could dramatically reduce US influence in a region that holds <a href="http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/asia-population/">more than half of the world’s population</a>.</p>
<p>That this desire would emerge in Beijing is far from surprising. No aspiring great power gains status or respect by ceding responsibility for security in its backyard to a far away foreign nation.</p>
<h2>Chinese initiative and US pushback</h2>
<p>To garner regional support, China has launched a series of high-profile initiatives that involve its neighbours in institutional setups: the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-aiib-investment-idUSKCN0UU03Y">Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a>, the <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2015/03/21/cica-american-security-architecture/">Conference on Confidence Building Measures in Asia</a> security architecture, and economic corridors through Pakistan and Myanmar to the Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>Beijing’s efforts have been derided as “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/abb35db2-a4cc-11e6-8b69-02899e8bd9d1">chequebook diplomacy</a>” and China has been accused of trying to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/23968248-43a0-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d">buy friends</a>. But if successful, the country’s endeavours will contribute to the creation of an increasingly <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2014/11/21/chinas-towards-sinocentric/">Sinocentric Asia</a>. </p>
<p>China’s most ambitious project is the New Silk Road Economic Belt, usually referred to as <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2016/11/06/political-economy-chinas/">One Belt One Road</a>. This proposed economic corridor will stretch across Eurasia to connect China not only to the Middle East and Europe but also embed it within the region. </p>
<p>One Belt One Road is said to <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2016/11/06/political-economy-chinas/">involve Chinese investments</a> of between US$800 billion and US$1 trillion, covering almost 900 projects in more than 60 partner countries – a truly monumental initiative. Several <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-07/china-s-marshall-plan">commentators have drawn parallels</a> between the policy and the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/marshall-plan">1948 US Marshall Plan</a> that helped rebuild postwar Europe. </p>
<p>The US reaction to China’s initiatives has been on two tracks. First, it sought to thwart the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2014/11/09/washingtons-opposition-development/">pressuring other countries not to join</a>. This effort failed spectacularly when the United Kingdom, the most important US ally, became <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2015/03/14/camerons-masterstroke-development/">the first to break ranks</a>. The bank now has 50 members, including many US allies from around the world. </p>
<p>US policymakers also promoted <a href="https://theconversation.com/tpp-revealed-at-last-we-have-the-details-and-a-democratic-deficit-to-be-fixed-50232">the Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> (TPP), a trade agreement linking the United States, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. If ratified by all participating countries’ legislatures, it will be the first real manifestation of President Barack <a href="https://theconversation.com/uncertainty-on-security-and-trade-worry-allies-in-asia-as-us-election-approaches-67868">Obama’s “pivot to Asia”</a>, which has so far consisted of little more than rhetoric.</p>
<p>China, which is excluded from the TPP, responded by promoting the <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2015/08/21/tussle-regional-influence/">Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</a> (RCEP), which excludes the United States, and which would promote rapprochement between Beijing and Tokyo. The RCEP includes a vast array of rules concerning investment, economic and technical cooperation, intellectual property, competition, dispute settlement, and government regulation.</p>
<h2>Exceptional allies</h2>
<p>This jostling between the US and China for influence in Asia explains why alarm bells started ringing in Washington when the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-separation-impression-americans-2016-10">announced a “separation” from the United States</a>. Indeed, quite a lot of Duterte’s rhetoric since his election has brought into question his nations’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/he-may-have-insulted-obama-but-duterte-held-up-a-long-hidden-looking-glass-to-the-us-65085">decades-long partnership with Washington</a>. </p>
<p>A month later, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-are-the-philippines-malaysia-doing-when-it-comes-china-18298">initiated what seemed like a rapprochement</a> with Beijing when he announced the purchase of coastal patrol ships from China. This is the first substantial defense contract between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing and a significant signal, given the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/76e53d98-a031-11e6-891e-abe238dee8e2">US had also hoped for a deal</a> with Malaysia.</p>
<p>These moves were particularly surprising because both the Philippines and Malaysia are claimants to disputed islands and reefs in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-the-legal-implications-of-the-south-china-sea-ruling-62421">South China Sea</a>. Washington had hoped that the tension there could be used to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/76e53d98-a031-11e6-891e-abe238dee8e2">build an alliance to contain Beijing</a> in the region and put international pressure on China.</p>
<p>The Philippines is the only South China Sea claimant that is <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-philippines-set-south-china-sea-dispute-aside-1476959210">also a US treaty ally</a>. The two countries recently concluded the <a href="http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/01/13/what-you-need-to-know-about-edca.html">Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement</a>, allowing Washington access to five Philippines military sites.</p>
<p>But there are several reasons why the Philippines and Malaysia can be seen as outliers. Their leaders have specific reasons to tilt towards Beijing that don’t apply to other US allies in the region. </p>
<p>Duterte’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/philippines-cannot-build-a-nation-over-the-bodies-of-100-000-dead-in-dutertes-war-on-drugs-64053">controversial “war on drugs”</a>, involving systematic human rights violations, has generated US criticism. And, in Malaysia, Najib has been under pressure after US investigations revealed a giant fraud committed by <a href="https://theconversation.com/malaysia-in-turmoil-as-pm-focuses-on-survival-45422">1MDB</a>, a state investment fund.</p>
<h2>Where to now?</h2>
<p>It’s important to also keep in mind that pro-China rhetoric doesn’t always match actions. Malaysia now conducts military exercises with Beijing, but its ties to the US <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/malaysia-is-not-pivoting-to-china-with-najibs-visit/">are still stronger</a>. With the exception of North Korea, Laos and Cambodia, China’s neighbours are all still closer to Washington than Beijin. </p>
<p>And the United States remains far more popular than China among Asian people, reflected by the far larger number of Asians who aspire to move to the United States than to the Middle Kingdom. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the US plan to maintain strong political influence in Asia and build alliances to contain China faces significant obstacles. Many US allies not trust each other (Japan and South Korea, for instance). And this may lead to collective action problems, such as what’s know in international relations theory as “<a href="https://blog.richmond.edu/fall10plsc250/2010/11/22/free-rider-problem-and-alliances/">free-riding</a>” – when actors benefit from public goods without making a contribution.</p>
<p>What’s more, many countries in the region are increasingly dependent on China’s economy, reducing their willingness to oppose Beijing. Even though, in principle, they are more likely to oppose China than support it, given its proximity and regional leadership ambitions.</p>
<p>As president-elect <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-presidency-could-be-a-disaster-for-the-global-economy-68551">Donald Trump’s support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> is very unlikely, and with China’s initiatives entangling the region’s economies with its own, time is clearly on Beijing’s side.</p>
<p>Countries in the region will <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/the-post-western-world-and-the-rise-of-a-parallel-order/">probably opt for a hedging strategy</a>: maintaining the United States as a security ally, but benefiting from broader economic integration with China. </p>
<p>Some of these, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, could emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of this dynamic, provided they play their cards right. Duterte, for instance, may <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/28eb69ca-99cc-11e6-b8c6-568a43813464">simply be trying to extract</a> stronger security guarantees from the United States, while obtaining more Chinese aid. </p>
<p>While mounting tensions between the West and Russia and continued instability in the Middle East remain relevant and will require US attention, it’s in China’s neighbourhood where the future of global order will be determined.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Stuenkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Beijing can bring its neighbours to accept its regional leadership, China would have successfully achieved a dramatic reduction of US influence.Oliver Stuenkel, Assistant Professor of International Relations, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/673492016-10-20T20:50:56Z2016-10-20T20:50:56ZL’importance des BRICS ne se dément pas<p>Depuis des années, les médias occidentaux qualifient la coalition des BRICS – le Brésil, la Russie, l’Inde, la Chine et l’Afrique du Sud – d’<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/352e96e8-15f2-11e1-a691-00144feabdc0">aberration, voire de menace</a>. Lorsque le Brésil et la Russie sont entrés en récession et, plus récemment, quand la croissance chinoise a ralenti, les <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/10/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-brics/?utm_term=.83192019f42b">observateurs américains</a> ont donc prédit la disparition rapide de cette initiative.</p>
<p>Ils se trompaient. Les 15 et 16 octobre à Goa (Inde), les chefs d’État et de gouvernement des pays concernés se sont réunis pour un <a href="http://brics2016.gov.in/content/innerpage/8th-summit.php">8ᵉ sommet</a> qui montre que cette coalition est non seulement toujours d’actualité, mais qu’elle est plus active que jamais.</p>
<h2>Vers une coopération renforcée</h2>
<p>Le groupe a commencé à institutionnaliser sa démarche, avec des réunions ministérielles régulières dans des domaines aussi divers que l’éducation, la santé ou la défense, des rencontres fréquentes entre les présidents des BRICS et les ministres d’autres pays, sans oublier la création d’une <a href="http://ndb.int/">banque du développement</a>, établie à Shanghai, et d’une <a href="http://brics.itamaraty.gov.br/media2/press-releases/220-treaty-for-the-establishment-of-a-brics-contingent-reserve-arrangement-fortaleza-july-15">réserve d’arrangement</a> assurant des liquidités aux autres membres de la coalition en cas de crise économique.</p>
<p>Certains observateurs avaient jugé que l’alternance politique au Brésil – où la <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer">procédure de destitution de Dilma Rousseff</a> a contraint le Parti des Travailleurs, membre de la coalition de centre-gauche, à céder le pouvoir au gouvernement centre-droit de Michel Temer – conduirait le pays à prendre ses distances avec les autres membres des BRICS. Mais Michel Temer, qui parle de la coalition des BRICS en <a href="http://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-37667750">termes élogieux</a>, s’est rendu deux fois en Asie au cours des premiers mois de son mandat.</p>
<p>Les pays des BRICS ont mis de côté leurs différences pour définir une politique commune. Lors du sommet de Goa, ils ont entériné la création de leur propre <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/brics-agree-to-set-up-credit-rating-agency-3086703/">agence de notation</a>, estimant que les agences existantes – Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s et Fitch – étaient biaisées vis-à-vis des sociétés occidentales.</p>
<h2>Pourquoi les BRICS ne sont pas près de disparaître</h2>
<p>L’avenir de la coalition des BRICS repose sur quatre éléments fondamentaux.</p>
<p>D’abord, et bien que la baisse de la croissance chinoise fasse actuellement les gros titres des journaux, l’ascendance des puissances émergentes, observable dans le monde entier, n’a rien de temporaire. Comme le <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/enduring-importance-of-brics-by-jim-o-neill-2016-10">soulignait</a> récemment Jim O’Neill, inventeur de l’acronyme BRIC en 2001 (avant que l’Afrique du Sud n’intègre la coalition en 2010) :</p>
<blockquote>
<p>« Il serait naïf de croire que l’importance des BRICS est exagérée. Les économies combinées des quatre membres originaux du BRIC correspondent à peu près aux prévisions que j’avais formulées il y a fort longtemps. »</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Deuxièmement, les membres de la coalition retirent des bénéfices importants de cette initiative, car elle permet aux décideurs de faire entendre leur voix. Ces pays, qui font face aux mêmes défis en matière d’urbanisme, de contre-terrorisme, de gestion des eaux, de coordination des politiques communes et d’enseignement supérieur, n’avaient jusqu’alors que peu de moyens de communiquer entre eux.</p>
<p>Aujourd’hui, les experts peuvent se réunir régulièrement dans des <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2016/09/04/brics-leader-hangzhou/88">groupes de travail</a>, et la Nouvelle Banque de développement aide à coordonner les discussions autour des <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2015/07/25/grouping-launches-development/">méthodes économiques les plus efficaces</a>.</p>
<p>On peut aussi envisager la coalition comme une première étape dans l’intégration de pays autrefois très éloignés les uns des autres. Les membres des BRICS, qui coordonnaient rarement leurs actions dans les réunions multilatérales – comme celles des Nations unies ou du Fonds monétaire international –, se mettent aujourd’hui d’accord avant le vote des résolutions.</p>
<p>Au vu du peu de rapports qu’entretenaient par le passé le Brésil et l’Inde, par exemple, l’importance de cette coordination ne doit pas être sous-estimée.</p>
<h2>Des désaccords réels</h2>
<p>Troisièmement, la place prépondérante des Occidentaux dans les affaires internationales est si profondément ancrée dans les mentalités qu’on la trouve aujourd’hui presque naturelle. Ceci nous empêche d’évaluer de manière objective les conséquences de son déclin. À l’avenir, les puissances émergentes continueront à assumer davantage de responsabilités, sans demander l’avis de leurs collègues occidentaux.</p>
<p>Les <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-is-china-investing-in-africa-evidence-from-the-firm-level/">investissements chinois en Afrique</a> et en Amérique latine, la <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/world/pakistan-very-concerned-at-india-s-military-modernisation/story-JOrnmwTnk8B6CJ3vfrGhnJ.html">montée en puissance de l’armée indienne</a> et les tentatives avortées du Brésil pour <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/world/middleeast/17iran.html?_r=0">négocier un accord nucléaire avec l’Iran</a> quand Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva était au pouvoir ne sont que quelques-uns des exemples de cette nouvelle réalité multipolaire.</p>
<p>L’influence grandissante des BRICS n’a rien à voir avec une quelconque tentative de renverser l’ordre établi. Au contraire, la Chine, l’Inde et les autres membres de la coalition sont résolument attachés aux institutions, et notamment aux Nations unies. Mais Beijing, Delhi et Brasília sont convaincus que ces institutions n’ont pas su s’adapter au nouveau contexte international, et qu’elles refusent d’accorder plus de latitude et de pouvoir aux pays émergents.</p>
<p>Ainsi, en dépit de promesses, réitérées depuis des années, visant à privilégier davantage le mérite dans le choix des dirigeants des institutions internationales, le président de la Banque mondiale est Américain, et le FMI est toujours dirigé par un(e) Européen(ne).</p>
<p>Les désaccords entre les membres des BRICS sont certes bien réels : le Brésil, l’Inde et l’Afrique du Sud sont des démocraties, alors que la Chine et la Russie sont des régimes autoritaires. Le Brésil et la Russie exportent des marchandises ; la Chine en importe. Le Brésil et l’Inde souhaitent devenir membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité, mais ils n’ont obtenu ni le soutien de la Chine, ni celui de la Russie.</p>
<h2>Des obstacles surmontables</h2>
<p>Néanmoins, il serait naïf de croire que ces différends empêchent toute coopération. Prenons le cas de l’Europe : même si les législateurs italiens s’opposent à la demande de l’Allemagne de devenir membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU, les deux pays continuent de s’entendre sur différents domaines. La Turquie a par ailleurs joué un rôle de premier plan au sein de l’OTAN, bien que ce pays ne soit pas une démocratie.</p>
<p>Les tensions entre membres des BRICS pourraient même accroître l’importance des réunions annuelles, car elles permettent la résolution de problèmes persistants.</p>
<p>Comme le disait en privé un conseiller du gouvernement russe avant le sommet de Goa :</p>
<blockquote>
<p>« Même si les sommets des BRICS ne permettent d’arracher qu’une seule chose dans les dix prochaines années dans le domaine de la réduction du risque de conflits potentiels entre l’Inde et la Chine, nous aurons réussi. »</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Pour les délégués brésiliens et sud-africains, ces réunions sont aussi l’occasion rêvée de s’adresser directement aux principaux législateurs et bureaucrates russes, indiens et chinois – ce qui peut rapporter gros dans un contexte de montée en puissance du continent asiatique.</p>
<p>En conclusion, la coalition des BRICS ne disparaîtra pas de sitôt. Pour les puissances occidentales, la transition vers une véritable multipolarité – où les nations en développement s’entendront sur des mesures économiques, mais aussi militaires, mondiales, et où elles définiront leur propre calendrier d’action – ne se fera pas sans heurts.</p>
<p>Mais un monde dirigé par les BRICS pourrait finir par être plus démocratique que jamais. En introduisant un véritable dialogue et en diffusant les savoirs à une plus grande échelle, nous pourrons trouver des solutions plus inventives et efficaces pour résoudre les problèmes planétaires auxquels nous serons confrontés.</p>
<p><em>Traduit de l’anglais par Bamiyan Shiff pour <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en/">Fast for Word</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67349/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Stuenkel ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Le 8ᵉ sommet des BRICS qui a eu lieu à Goa les 15 et 16 octobre montre que cette coalition est toujours d’actualité et plus active que jamais.Oliver Stuenkel, Assistant Professor of International Relations, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/672022016-10-18T07:41:04Z2016-10-18T07:41:04ZWhy the BRICS coalition still matters<p>For years, Western newspapers have depicted the BRICS grouping – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – as either <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/352e96e8-15f2-11e1-a691-00144feabdc0">nonsensical or threatening</a>. Indeed, after Brazil and Russia entered recession and growth in China slowed in recent years, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/10/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-brics/?utm_term=.83192019f42b">Washington-based observers</a> predicted the initiative’s imminent demise.</p>
<p>Well, they’re wrong. This past weekend, national leaders gathered in Goa for the <a href="http://brics2016.gov.in/content/innerpage/8th-summit.php">8th BRICS Summit</a>, showing that BRICS countries have not only continue to exist as a bloc but are, in fact, strengthening their cooperation.</p>
<h2>Towards stronger cooperation</h2>
<p>The group has begun to institutionalise, holding regular ministerial meetings in areas such as education, health and national security. And there are frequent encounters between BRICS presidents and foreign ministers. </p>
<p>Perhaps most notable is the creation of the BRICS-led <a href="http://ndb.int/">New Development Bank</a>, headquartered in Shanghai, and the contingent <a href="http://brics.itamaraty.gov.br/media2/press-releases/220-treaty-for-the-establishment-of-a-brics-contingent-reserve-arrangement-fortaleza-july-15">reserve agreement</a>, which creates a safety net for times of financial crisis. It will automatically provide liquidity for any member country facing financial distress.</p>
<p>Some had suggested that the political shift in Brazil – from the centre-left Workers’ Party to the centre-right administration of Michel Temer, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer">following the impeachment Dilma Rousseff</a> – would reduce the country’s commitment to the BRICS coalition. But Temer has spoken of the grouping in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-37667750">favourable terms</a>, and travelled to Asia twice in the first months of his mandate. </p>
<p>Putting political differences aside, the BRICS bloc is joining together to work on policy. During the recent meeting in Goa, leaders decided to move ahead with the creation of a BRICS-led <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/brics-agree-to-set-up-credit-rating-agency-3086703/">rating agency</a>, based on the notion that the existing institutions – Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch – unfairly favour Western countries and companies.</p>
<h2>Why BRICS will live on</h2>
<p>There are four key aspects to keep in mind when considering the future of the BRICS coalition.</p>
<p>First, while lower growth in China currently dominates headlines, it would be a mistake to believe that the global shift to emerging powers was temporary. As Jim O'Neill, who coined the term BRIC back in 2001 (South Africa was added in 2010), recently <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/enduring-importance-of-brics-by-jim-o-neill-2016-10">pointed out</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The suggestion that the BRICS’ importance was overstated is simply naïve. The size of the original four BRICs economies, taken together, is roughly consistent with the projections I made all those years ago.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Second, the BRICS grouping is producing significant benefits for its members by creating an important platform for policymakers. In areas such as urban planning, anti-terrorism measures, water management, coordination of policy positions and higher education, the countries face common challenges – but previously had few channels of communication with each other. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jim O'Neill is confident that his projection for the countries still holds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/Doc/RTR/Media/TR3/d/d/2/d/RTSP3FX.jpg">Pilar Olivares/Reuters</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, experts can regularly consult each other via <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2016/09/04/brics-leader-hangzhou/88">working groups</a>, and the New Development Bank helps coordinate debates about <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2015/07/25/grouping-launches-development/">best practices in development</a>.</p>
<p>The group can also be seen as the first step to connect previously distant countries. While in decades past, the BRICS countries rarely coordinated their actions in multilateral fora, such as the United Nations or the International Monetary Fund, they now regularly discuss each positions prior to voting. </p>
<p>Considering how limited relations between, say, Brazil and India have been historically, the significance of such coordinated action should not be overlooked.</p>
<p>Third, Western international leadership is so deeply rooted and ubiquitous that people think of it as somehow natural. And this limits citizens’ capacity to objectively assess the consequences of its decline. The fact is, in the future, non-Western powers will continue to take on greater responsibilities – and they’ll do so without their Western peers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-is-china-investing-in-africa-evidence-from-the-firm-level/">Chinese investment in Africa</a> and Latin America, <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/world/pakistan-very-concerned-at-india-s-military-modernisation/story-JOrnmwTnk8B6CJ3vfrGhnJ.html">India’s growing military capacity</a> and Brazil’s attempt to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/world/middleeast/17iran.html?_r=0">negotiate an Iran nuclear deal</a> under former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are all examples of this new multipolar reality.</p>
<p>The BRICS bloc did not emerge because China, India and others sought to overthrow existing order. On the contrary, they are firmly committed to institutions such as the UN. But there is a strong feeling in Beijing, Delhi and Brasília that existing institutions have failed to adapt to a new global context and have been unwilling to provide emerging actors with greater space and power. </p>
<p>For instance, despite years of promises about making the leadership selection process of international institutions more meritocratic, the head of the World Bank remains an American citizen, and the IMF is still lead by a European.</p>
<p>The differences and disagreements between the BRICS countries are real. Brazil, India and South Africa are democracies, while China and Russia have authoritarian leaders. Brazil and Russia export commodities, while China imports them. Brazil and India would like to join the UN Security Council as permanent members, but China and Russia are reluctant to support them. </p>
<h2>Surmountable obstacles</h2>
<p>But it would be naïve to believe that these differences preclude meaningful cooperation. Consider Europe: Italian policymakers oppose Germany’s ambitions to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but both countries still cooperate on a range of issues. And Turkey was a key NATO member even when it was non-democratic. </p>
<p>Indeed, tensions between BRICS members can even enhance the value of yearly summits, which provides a platform for problem-solving. </p>
<p>As one Russian government advisor privately pointed out before the Goa meeting:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If ten years from now the only thing the BRICS Summits have achieved is to reduce the risk of future conflict between India and China, it will have been a great success.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For Brazil and South Africa, the summits provide unique access to leading policymakers and bureaucrats in Moscow, Delhi and Beijing, which has the potential for ample benefits in the coming years as power continues to shift towards Asia.</p>
<p>All of this is to say that the BRICS coalition is here to stay. The transition to genuine multipolarity - of developing nations collaborating to have not just global economic impact but also military and agenda-setting capacity - will be disconcerting to Western powers. </p>
<p>But a world with BRICS leadership may, in the end, be more democratic than any previous world order. Allowing greater levels of genuine dialogue and a broader spread of knowledge, this will help us find more innovative and effective ways to address global challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Stuenkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite financial crises and political differences among these five emerging economies, the BRICS coalition is here to stay. And it may just change the world.Oliver Stuenkel, Assistant Professor of International Relations, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/441632015-07-20T05:21:22Z2015-07-20T05:21:22ZHow Brazil and Argentina defused their nuclear rivalry<p>In the 1970s and early 1980s, Brazil and Argentina sought to acquire or develop technologies to enrich and reprocess uranium. At the time neither country was a member of the global weapons control regime, and both were bent on building <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/19/weekinreview/tightening-the-reins-in-ballistic-missle-race.html">ballistic missiles</a>.</p>
<p>While there is no unequivocal evidence that either country ever worked concertedly towards a nuclear weapon, they certainly saw each other as major potential security threats, and both their military establishments had contingency plans in place for the event of war. </p>
<p>On top of that, both countries were governed by opaque authoritarian regimes that shrouded their official nuclear intentions under a veil of secrecy, meaning their nuclear programmes were poorly understood both at home and abroad. To make matters worse, there was very little high-level diplomatic contact between the two sides, with no major bilateral committees or working groups and very little social and economic interdependence. </p>
<p>It is no wonder, then, that many international observers at the time (including the CIA) estimated that when it came to Argentina and Brazil, spiralling nuclear security competition with serious geopolitical ramifications was a real possibility. And yet somehow, they managed to turn back from the brink.</p>
<h2>Face to face</h2>
<p>We set out to better understand how these two countries were able to navigate a new co-operative nuclear path. Our research team conducted archival research in Argentina, Brazil, and the US (a selection of which can be downloaded <a href="http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/collection/167/brazilian-nuclear-history">here</a>).
We also convened a conference that brought together former Argentine and Brazilian officials and diplomats to reflect on how the nuclear rapprochement became possible. </p>
<p>Building on the pioneering work of political scientists <a href="https://www.balsillieschool.ca/people/james-blight-janet-lang">Jim Blight and Janet Lang</a>, we have produced a book based on the transcript of the conference, which can be downloaded <a href="http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/activity/conflict-cooperation-security/news/2015/07/origins-of-nclear-cooperation.aspx">here</a>. It tells a unique and rich story about how two regional nuclear rivals de-escalated their nuclear rivalry, and averted what could have been a major crisis in regional and global security.</p>
<p>The transcript shows there was nothing inevitable about the de-escalation. There were several moments when one side appeared to be on the cusp of securing a major technological edge that could have triggered a competitive spiral of nuclear competition. This did not happen because at those crucial junctures, Argentine and Brazilian leaders chose to trust rather than distrust. </p>
<p>To be sure, there were powerful structural factors promoting co-operation over conflict. Both countries were transitioning to democracy, and both were keen to avoid bowing to US pressure and conform to the global non-proliferation regime. But the empathy and trust that developed at the highest levels of Argentine-Brazilian diplomacy was equally crucial. </p>
<p>The transcript reveals how, through a series of face-to-face meetings, a trusting relationship developed between the then-president of Brazil, José Sarney, and his Argentine counterpart, Raúl Alfonsín – and how their relationship paved the way for mutual nuclear inspections. Reflecting upon their personal connection in an interview with a Brazilian newspaper last Saturday, Sarney said that: ‘We established a trusting relationship between us. What we see happening now with immense difficulty with Iran, we did here in <a href="http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/2015/07/1657449-amizade-de-sarney-e-alfonsin-freou-corrida-nuclear-na-america-do-sul.shtml">South America</a> without international mediation’. </p>
<h2>Opening up</h2>
<p>In July 1985, Sarney received word that Alfonsín was secretly proposing that Brazil and Argentina set up a system of mutual nuclear inspections. This proposal seemed utterly implausible. These were two regional powers with a long history of diplomatic rivalry, both now bent on purchasing and developing indigenous uranium enrichment and ballistic missile technologies – all outside any international safeguarding regime.</p>
<p>Sarney was unconvinced, but Alfonsín insisted. Surely the two of them could use transparency to reassert civilian authority over their respective military establishments, which had run both nuclear policy and national politics for many years. Also, there was surely no better way to fend off US and wider international pressure to sign up to the 1968 <a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/1970/infcirc140.pdf">Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons</a> (NPT) and negotiate safeguards agreements with the <a href="https://www.iaea.org/">International Atomic Energy Authority</a>. </p>
<p>Alfonsín and Sarney were willing to increase the levels of transparency in their own nuclear programmes, but they never considered joining the NPT. On the contrary, both of them thought the treaty a discriminatory arrangement designed by the major nuclear powers to keep peripheral countries like Argentina and Brazil ensconced in the third world. They remained as wedded to the notion that nuclear technology is a sign of modernity as their predecessors. </p>
<p>But if only they could tell the world that there was no need to worry about their future nuclear intentions because each of them was reassured that the other side was developing nuclear technologies for peaceful purposes only.</p>
<p>When they met in person for the first time in November 1985, Alfonsín brought his proposal forward once more. Once again Sarney resisted, but Alfonsín kept pressing for more transparency and closer bilateral co-operation – and five years later to the day, on November 1990, the two countries set up a <a href="http://www.abacc.org.br/?page_id=5&lang=en">binational agency</a> to carry out the mutual inspections.</p>
<p>In the course of these five years, Argentine-Brazilian nuclear co-operation revolutionised the politics of South America. Nobody in the 1970s could have imagined that in two decades, the fractious relationship between Brazil and Argentina would have created a nascent security community – or that the risk of military competition between the continent’s two major states would be diminishing rather than growing.</p>
<h2>Lessons learned</h2>
<p>This case proves that face-to-face diplomacy and the interpersonal trust it builds between political leaders is <a href="https://securitydilemmas.wordpress.com/2014/06/10/from-distrust-to-trust-in-adversarial-relationships/#more-23">a crucial tool for defusing nuclear rivalry</a>, and even outright enmity.</p>
<p>As the Iranian government and the negotiating partners sign their historic nuclear agreement, the most important lesson of the Argentine-Brazilian case is the importance of <a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-crucial-in-high-stakes-nuclear-talks-with-iran-19170">not fixating on worst-case scenarios</a>. There were less co-operative trajectories open to Argentine and Brazilian leaders in the second half of the 1980s, but these paths were avoided. </p>
<p>What made the difference was the empathy and trust that developed among the key players – something that is still uncertain in the Iranian case. The deal between Iran and the West does not mean the end of the two sides’ trust deficit, and this is where the South American story of nuclear rapprochement is a valuable lesson.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44163/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas John Wheeler received funding from October 2009 until September 2012 from the ESRC and AHRC under RCUK's Global Uncertainties Programme which made possible the research and investigations detailed in this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matias Spektor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latin America’s two biggest players spent much of the 1980s in a low-grade arms race – and they both had nuclear aspirations. How did they manage to diffuse the tension?Nicholas John Wheeler, Professor of International Relations Director of the The Institute for Conflict, Cooperation and Security, University of BirminghamMatias Spektor, Associate Professor, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.