tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/gettysburg-college-3104/articlesGettysburg College2023-05-26T16:55:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064732023-05-26T16:55:19Z2023-05-26T16:55:19ZTurkey’s presidential runoff: 4 essential reads on what’s at stake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528620/original/file-20230526-23155-b6trtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C53%2C5858%2C3870&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu -- which one will be flying high after the runoff? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flags-fly-over-taksim-square-showing-turkeys-president-news-photo/1489812545?adppopup=true">Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Turkish voters will <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-election-2023-whats-stake-runoff-2023-05-26/">head to the polls on May 28, 2023</a>, for the second time in the month – this time facing a choice between a winnowed field of two candidates, each of whom is vowing to take the country in a very different direction.</p>
<p>The fact that the presidential vote has gone to a runoff is no great surprise – polls <a href="https://globeelectionshistorysociety.wordpress.com/2023/05/15/tr-pe2023-final-projection-r1/">had predicted</a> that none of the initial candidates would get above the 50% mark needed to be declared the outright winner. Nor is the binary choice in front of voters a shock. Turkish people have long known that the likely option would be between sticking with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogans-milestones-before-turkeys-election-2023-05-07/">incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a>, who has ruled the country for two decades, or throw their lot in with main <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1172704065/turkey-election-candidate-kemal-kilicsdaroglu-erdogan-challenger">opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu</a>.</p>
<p>But the fact that Erdoğan enters the runoff as the favorite, having secured more votes in the first round, is something that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-lags-election-rival-closely-watched-poll-2023-05-11/">earlier polls had not predicted</a>.</p>
<p>Here are four stories from The Conversation’s Turkish election coverage that help contextualize the choice in front of voters, and how it could impact the future direction of the nation.</p>
<h2>1. Erdoğan defies the polls</h2>
<p>How did Erdoğan enter the runoff weekend in such a strong position? </p>
<p>The assumption was that he might have sunk under the combined weight of a faltering economy, concerns about his authoritarian style and a widely held perception that he mishandled a devastating earthquake just months before the vote.</p>
<p>But as <a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/graduate-students/yasun-salih.html">Salih Yasun</a>, an expert on Turkish politics at Indiana University, noted, Erdoğan <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-presidential-election-how-erdogan-defied-the-polls-to-head-into-runoff-as-favorite-205719">had some things going for him</a> as the campaign took shape. First off, he was able to use state resources, and utilized control over a large section of the media to bolster his bid for reelection.</p>
<p>He has also mitigated falling support for his AKP party by adding smaller Islamist and nationalist parties to his coalition. </p>
<p>“By doing that, he has allowed his base to vote for coalition parties other than the AKP while maintaining their support for his own candidacy within the presidential race,” wrote Yasun. </p>
<p>Meanwhile his main opponent made several missteps, such as not agreeing to public debates and bypassing primary elections to secure his candidacy as opposition leader. In addition, under Kılıçdaroğlu, the opposition party has become more of a catchall organization at the cost of presenting a clear social democratic message, Yasun argued.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-presidential-election-how-erdogan-defied-the-polls-to-head-into-runoff-as-favorite-205719">Turkey's presidential election – how Erdoğan defied the polls to head into runoff as favorite</a>
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<h2>2. Claiming counterterrorism success</h2>
<p>There is another potential factor in Erdoğan’s outperforming of the polls in the first round: his political use of counterterrorism.</p>
<p>Just as it looked like the long-standing Turkish leader was struggling to achieve any momentum, events played into his hands. On April 30, 2023,
the suspected leader of the Islamic State group, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, was said to have been killed in an apparent Turkish strike in Syria.</p>
<p>Terrorism and political science scholars <a href="https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/graig-klein#tab-1">Graig Klein</a> and <a href="https://www.gettysburg.edu/academic-programs/political-science/faculty/employee_detail.dot?empId=011229447120013384&pageTitle=Scott+Simon+Boddery">Scott Boddery</a> noted how <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-erdogan-took-a-page-from-us-presidents-and-boosted-reelection-campaign-by-claiming-to-have-killed-a-terrorist-205369">Erdoğan claimed credit for the operation</a>, echoing a tried and tested tactic by leaders around the world.</p>
<p>“The targeted killing of al-Qurashi was announced three days after Erdoğan fell sick on national TV and the same day he returned to the campaign trail. The counterterrorism strike created an opportunity for Erdoğan to focus domestic attention on his national security credentials, his role in the anti-Islamic State coalition, and his abilities to be an authoritative and strong leader,” Klein and Boddery wrote.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-erdogan-took-a-page-from-us-presidents-and-boosted-reelection-campaign-by-claiming-to-have-killed-a-terrorist-205369">Turkey's Erdoğan took a page from US presidents and boosted reelection campaign by claiming to have killed a terrorist</a>
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<h2>3. Pushing science and tech credentials</h2>
<p>But it wasn’t only his self-proclaimed counterterrorism credentials that Erdoğan was pushing to the electorate. As <a href="https://www.lborolondon.ac.uk/about/staff/dr-merve-sancak/">Merve Sancak</a>, a lecturer in political economy at the U.K.’s Loughborough University, noted, the incumbent centered much of his campaign around what <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-framed-his-science-and-tech-great-achievements-as-part-of-election-campaign-206029">he framed as his “great achievements</a>” in putting Turkey firmly on the science and tech map.</p>
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<img alt="A man in suit and tie exits a red car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Erdoğan stands next to his Togg T10X, Turkey’s first domestically produced electric car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/turkeys-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-stands-next-to-his-news-photo/1250748150?adppopup=true">Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>As others pointed to soaring inflation and a sluggish economy, Erdoğan trumpeted a series of initiatives in the lead-in to the first-round vote. These included plans to send a Turkish astronaut to the International Space Station, the launching of an aerospace and technology festival, and state-of-the-art military projects. He even took to driving around in the first “Togg” car – the result of a project to produce a domestically made Turkish national car.</p>
<p>“Erdoğan clearly hoped that these announcements would boost his popularity by creating an image of Turkey becoming a world leader in science and technology,” wrote Sancak.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-framed-his-science-and-tech-great-achievements-as-part-of-election-campaign-206029">How Erdoğan framed his science and tech 'great achievements' as part of election campaign</a>
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<h2>4. After 100 years, what’s next for Turkey?</h2>
<p>Later in 2023, Turkey is set to celebrate its centenary as a modern republic. <a href="https://politicalscience.sdsu.edu/people/kuru">Ahmet Kuru</a>, a political scientist at San Diego State University, argued that <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-centennial-year-turkish-voters-will-choose-between-erdogans-conservative-path-and-the-founders-modernist-vision-202554">what is presented to the electorate</a> is two distinct visions ahead of that landmark occasion: a future in line with that of the country’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, or one that takes Turkey further down an autocratic, religious path.</p>
<p>“Erdoğan seeks to win the election to present himself as the founder of ‘a new Turkey,’ where populist Islamism prevails. Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, wants to revive Atatürk’s secular vision, with certain democratic revisions,” Kuru wrote.</p>
<p>Which way Turkish voters turn will have ripple affects across the world, Kuru added.</p>
<p>“An Erdoğan win will signal that the global rise of right-wing populists is still robust enough to dominate a leading Muslim-majority country. A victory for Kılıçdaroğlu, meanwhile, may be celebrated by democrats worldwide as a defeat of a populist Islamist leader, despite his control over the media and state institutions.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-centennial-year-turkish-voters-will-choose-between-erdogans-conservative-path-and-the-founders-modernist-vision-202554">In centennial year, Turkish voters will choose between Erdoğan’s conservative path and the founder’s modernist vision</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a second-round vote that will decide the future trajectory of Turkey’s politics.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2053692023-05-24T12:18:30Z2023-05-24T12:18:30ZTurkey’s Erdoğan took a page from US presidents and boosted reelection campaign by claiming to have killed a terrorist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527549/original/file-20230522-4578-qb5exw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C12%2C8013%2C5314&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Man on track: Turkish President Erdoğan, center, did better in his reelection campaign than predicted.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/turkish-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-attends-the-debut-of-news-photo/1252478070?adppopup=true">Emin Sansar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claimed credit on April 30, 2023, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/1/erdogan-says-turkey-has-killed-suspected-isil-leader">for killing</a> Islamic State group leader Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi in Syria, it may not have been simply a straightforward announcement of victory over the leader of a terrorist group. </p>
<p>History suggests the operation against al-Qurashi could have been an effort to boost Erdoğan’s reelection campaign.</p>
<p>When the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/5/15/turkey-election-results-live-run-off-likely-with-erdogan-leading">results from Turkey’s presidential election</a> on May 14, 2023, came in, they showed no clear winner. Neither long-serving President Erdoğan nor the main challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, won 50% of the votes. But Erdoğan came close and did better than predicted. Polls leading up to the election <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/14/turkey-opinion-poll-tracker-erdogan-vs-kilicdaroglu">had shown Kılıçdaroğlu consistently leading by 5 to 10 percentage points</a>. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-election-runoff-2023-what-you-need-know-2023-05-18/">A runoff is scheduled</a> for May 28.</p>
<p>So what changed and how did Erdoğan make up so much ground so quickly?</p>
<p>One answer is Erdoğan’s <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2380151">political use of counterterrorism</a>. </p>
<h2>Tough conditions for reelection</h2>
<p>Leading up to the election, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/overview">Turkey’s domestic economy was in decline</a>. Erdoğan’s tenure appeared uncertain because of a series of political missteps. It was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/erdogans-grip-on-power-tested-as-turkey-goes-to-the-polls">a difficult path to reelection</a>. </p>
<p>Adding to these hurdles, Erdoğan <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/28/1172836561/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-appearances-after-falling-ill">had to demonstrate he was healthy enough</a> to continue in office. He had <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65409951">fallen ill when he was on TV</a> on April 27 and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/29/erdogan-returns-from-three-day-campaign-absence-due-to-illness">suspended his campaign for three days</a>. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mX4CH8cAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientists</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=g0xQ--gAAAAJ&hl=en">who study</a> foreign policy decision-making, we know that, faced with such scenarios, elected leaders are often motivated to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111408">gamble for resurrection</a> by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3693556">demonstrating strength</a>, resolve and capability. They do this through a kind of aggressive foreign policy known in our field as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1958273">political use of force</a>, or <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111653">diversionary use of force</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large white building with rubble near it and farm fields behind it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The building in Syria where Turkey claims it killed the so-called leader of the Daesh/ISIS terrorist organization, al-Qurashi, in an operation carried out by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-aerial-view-of-the-building-where-the-so-called-leader-news-photo/1252469437?adppopup=true">Bekir Kasim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Ultimate diversion</h2>
<p>Leaders who undertake this kind of action hope a successful military endeavor will divert the public’s attention from the administration’s domestic shortcomings. </p>
<p>Such shortcomings come in a variety of forms – high unemployment, high inflation, a stalled legislative agenda or even political scandal. These leaders have little power to rectify the problems alone, and the incentive to use military force is heightened further by the uncertainty of an approaching election. </p>
<p>This is not only a theoretical argument. In the U.S., presidents are more likely to break covert mission protocol and claim credit from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2380151">successful drone strikes</a> when they have political incentives to distract the public from a weak economy or negative domestic debates.</p>
<p>Historically – and routinely – national leaders have attempted to garner political support through the use of military force that predictably boosts domestic sentiments of nationalism and patriotism. For example, President George H.W. Bush’s 1989 invasion of Panama aimed to “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/48608710">cure his political image problems at home</a>,” as political scientist Jane Kellett Cramer wrote. </p>
<p>At the height of his impeachment scandal in 1998, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45346926">President Bill Clinton ordered counterterrorism airstrikes</a> against al-Qaida. The 2011 U.S. <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/19/barack-obama-libya-airstrikes-1224550">airstrikes on Libya were ordered</a> by President Barack Obama in the depths of economic turmoil – high unemployment and a negative economic growth rate.</p>
<p>This phenomenon extends beyond the U.S. In May 1978, Belgium faced an economic crisis. Uniformed soldiers were protesting on the streets. Government was gridlocked. Prime Minister Leo Tindermans <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4621715">tried to overcome those problems by deploying soldiers</a> to evacuate Europeans threatened by fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo, then called Zaire. </p>
<p>In 1982, Argentina’s military junta was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410601028354">facing escalating public disorder and declining support</a>. President Leopoldo Galtieri announced the country’s invasion of the Falkland Islands and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804784931-006">crowds cheered on the streets</a>. </p>
<p>But the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2020.1693618">junta overlooked</a> British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s own domestic political turmoil. The British military quickly responded and retook the islands. Thatcher flaunted the successful operation, rallying the British public behind her government.</p>
<h2>A new frontier</h2>
<p>Studying political use of force is notoriously difficult for a variety of reasons. Not all presidents have the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/106591299604900306">opportunity</a> to use force abroad. And when political leaders are under pressure and most likely to seek a diversion with an attack, potential targets often de-escalate to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00123">avoid confrontation</a>.</p>
<p>But counterterrorism efforts have created a unique scenario in which there is always opportunity to strike. Successful operations against terrorist targets produce a comparatively pronounced increase in public support.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211019904">Our research</a> investigates modern-day counterterrorism tactics, which we find can generate a larger bump in approval than traditional military operations. </p>
<p>In an experiment, we asked a sample of Americans to evaluate their support for a president in office during a declining economy and increasing unemployment. The approval ratings were predictably quite low. </p>
<p>Approval ratings increased under those same domestic conditions when respondents were also informed that a successful counterterrorism operation had just occurred. And when the counterterrorism operation involved a drone strike, and thus little risk to service members, support was at its highest and changed from disapproval to approval of the president’s performance.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A huge crowd, with many carrying red flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Supporters wave flags and chant slogans while waiting for CHP Party presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to arrive at a campaign rally on April 30, 2023, in Izmir, Turkey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-wave-flags-and-chant-slogans-while-waiting-for-news-photo/1486600794?adppopup=true">Burak Kara/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>For Erdoğan, favorable timing and conditions</h2>
<p>Erdoğan’s claim of the targeted killing of the Islamic State’s al-Qurashi fits the profile of political use of counterterrorism in two important ways: Turkey’s domestic economic and political conditions and the strike’s timing. </p>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2023 presidential election, with the domestic economy in decline, his physical health questioned and a credible challenger, Erdoğan was faced with an extraordinarily tough reelection environment. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Recep-Tayyip-Erdogan">Erdoğan was first elected in 2014</a>. Since then, Turkey has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-election-runoff-2023-what-you-need-know-2023-05-18/">seesawed between economic expansion and decline</a>. Erdoğan championed Turkish nationalism and religious identity and escalated ethnic <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-turkey-and-armed-kurdish-groups">tensions with the Kurdish minority</a> – including conflict with and counterterrorism against the Kurdish groups known as PKK. Erdoğan has sometimes played an <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/13/turkey-erdogan-nato-crucial-corrosive-ally/">oversize role in international politics</a> and at others times has been a political pariah, particularly after <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/7/15/turkeys-failed-coup-attempt-all-you-need-to-know">his response to the 2016 coup</a> attempt.</p>
<p>Since May 2022, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/we-cant-afford-anything-turkeys-cost-of-living-crisis-threatens-erdogans-re-2023-05-08/">currency devaluation</a> has created a significant cost-of-living problem in Turkey. The Turkish lira has declined by nearly 27% against the euro and slightly over 22% against the U.S. dollar. The weak economy and socioeconomic struggles were <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/10/turkey-erdogan-economy-election-earthquake-recovery/">exacerbated by earthquakes in February 2023</a> that caused extraordinary human and physical destruction. </p>
<p>Erdoğan is the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/13/turkey-syria-earthquake-erdogan-elections-negligence/">face of government corruption</a> and inadequate oversight and regulation of construction contracts blamed for the devastation. </p>
<p>And the <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkish-president-erdogans-grip-on-power-threatened-by-devastating-earthquake-200033">government is criticized</a> for <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/01/turkey-erdogan-earthquake-apk-strongman-authoritarianism-democracy-military-disaster-relief/">slow and insufficient disaster response</a> and relief operations. </p>
<p>While Erdoğan is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-20-year-rule-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan-has-transformed-turkey-188211">criticized and lauded</a> for many <a href="https://apnews.com/article/turkey-elections-issues-erdogan-947c641990cb6a88d9c332fca184e062">domestic</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/turkeys-growing-foreign-policy-ambitions">international policies</a>, the domestic issues are potentially insurmountable and are difficult to solve through standard policymaking.</p>
<p>The targeted killing of al-Qurashi was announced three days after Erdoğan fell sick on national TV and the same day he returned to the campaign trail. The counterterrorism strike created an opportunity for Erdoğan to focus domestic attention on his national security credentials, his role in the anti-Islamic State coalition, and his abilities to be an authoritative and strong leader. </p>
<p>Counterterrorism has long played a pivotal role in Turkish politics. An <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2021.1940457">analysis of Turkey-PKK conflict data</a> from 2004 to 2018 shows that when the Turkish government was challenged by domestic economic decline and needed to generate political support, the number of Turkish Armed Forces operations against the PKK increased. </p>
<p><a href="https://dronewars.net/tag/turkey/">Turkey’s</a> <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592318.2020.1743488">rapid proliferation</a> and <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/world-drones/the-future-of-drone-warfare-striking-at-home/">use of weaponized drone technology</a> could usher in more political uses of counterterrorism. Indeed, al-Qurashi’s targeted killing in the midst of a looming, uncertain election fits this model perfectly. Erdoğan’s gambit could very well secure his reelection. And the May 14 election suggests it almost worked.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Invading, attacking and killing adversaries abroad can boost the political prospects of leaders doing poorly at home.Graig Klein, Assistant Professor of Terrorism & Political Violence, Leiden UniversityScott Boddery, Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Law, Gettysburg CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/784352017-08-15T01:20:39Z2017-08-15T01:20:39ZAre men seen as ‘more American’ than women?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172255/original/file-20170605-31028-11j2uv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters hold signs at the Chicago Women's March in January 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usachicago/31672543383">John W. Iwanski</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Women make up <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_14_5YR_DP05&src=pt">50.8 percent</a> of the U.S. population and have equal voting rights, yet are politically underrepresented. The country has never had a female president or vice president. Only 3.5 percent of Supreme Court justices have been women, and women make up only <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44762.pdf">20 percent of Congress</a>.</p>
<p>Studies have shown that within a country, groups with more power often <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2749514">feel greater ownership over it</a>. Because they control actual resources, like money, and symbolic resources, like writing history, they’re better able to shape the culture in their image. For example, because Christianity is the most prominent religion in the United States, Christmas is a federal holiday.</p>
<p>Because men hold more power than women in the United States, we wanted to explore a simple question: Would people tend to think of men as “more American” than women? And, if so, how does this influence the way American women identify with their country?</p>
<h2>A masculine national ethos</h2>
<p>We tested these questions in <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0361684317707710">two studies</a>. </p>
<p>First, we looked at the connection between national identity and gender-specific traits, asking 382 American adults the extent to which they thought of certain traits as “American.” Among these traits, some were stereotypically feminine (helpful, friendly) while others were stereotypically masculine (outgoing, ambitious). (We used results from <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0361684316634081">previous studies</a> to designate certain traits as “masculine” or “feminine.”)</p>
<p>We found that both men and women rated masculine traits – like “independent” and “competitive” – as significantly more American than feminine ones. </p>
<p>Because attaching gender stereotypes to certain traits can be relatively subjective, we also asked our subjects to simply tell us how central they thought masculinity and femininity were to American identity. Sure enough, people thought masculinity was more important than femininity. </p>
<p>Finally, participants listed five people they considered examples of Americans. They could include anyone, from celebrities (Oprah) to historical figures (George Washington) to family members (my dad). The participants were seven times more likely to list a man than a woman.</p>
<p>Building on the results of our first study, we asked participants questions about their identity: how important their gender was to them, and how important they felt it was to be an American. </p>
<p>Their answers revealed that the more men identified with their gender, the more they identified as American. This association wasn’t as strong for women.</p>
<h2>A roadblock to political power</h2>
<p>Our research suggests that group memberships – in this case, gender – play a big role in determining who is viewed as a “true” American. Yes, all citizens technically have equal standing under the law. But because the nation’s identity seems to elevate masculinity, the interests of women – even though they’re numerically equal with men – might not be adequately represented or addressed. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181832/original/file-20170811-14040-bgb9wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Can patriotism be aligned with femininity?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/patriotic-woman-holding-american-flag-saluting-484242937?src=L7V-NmT-b3dLtyuCOgNzLA-4-1">Everett Collection</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And because women identify with the nation less if they think they don’t fit a masculine representation of a U.S. citizen, it also might help explain why <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00069.x/full">they’re more hesitant to run for political office</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the country’s preference for masculine traits could explain why the female candidates who do run face an uphill battle. In order to demonstrate patriotism, women might feel the need to act masculine. But this creates a Catch-22, with female candidates <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Laurie_Rudman/publication/260794203_Reactions_to_vanguards_Advances_in_backlash_theory/links/0a85e5324bfbe463bf000000/Reactions-to-vanguards-Advances-in-backlash-theory.pdf">risking backlash</a> for acting in ways that violate stereotypical expectations. </p>
<h2>Can this change?</h2>
<p>One reason men might be viewed as more American is because <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/psp/53/3/451/">we see male political leaders representing the country in domestic and foreign affairs</a>. For citizens, this exposure connects “male” with “America.” But if more women appear as representatives of American policy and interests, ideas of national identity might accordingly shift.</p>
<p>Studies have shown that female politicians in the U.S. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/55/2/180/1810869/WOMEN-CANDIDATES-IN-THE-NEWS-AN-EXAMINATION-OF">receive less media coverage</a> than their male counterparts; those that do appear tend to be described and depicted through the lens of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/gender-candidate-portrayals-and-election-campaigns-a-comparative-perspective/8A5043A6EFB2D46A138874AB77793C22">gender stereotypes</a>: weak and emotional, with an emphasis on their <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002764202238491">role as a wife or mother</a> and on their <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10510970903109904">appearance</a>. Rarely do they appear as independent, strong leaders. </p>
<p>A national ethos that incorporates the positive traits that tend to be associated with each gender could create a stronger society, in which the needs of men and women are voiced, valued and addressed equally. </p>
<p>We’re already starting to see <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/emilys-list-expands-after-16000-women-reach-out-about?utm_term=.rbqEzdrdj&bftwnews#.qszE56862">more female candidates throw their hats into the ring</a>. If more win – which will increase the visibility of women in the public sphere – masculinity’s grip on national identity might loosen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78435/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the first study of the relationship between gender and national identity, the authors wonder if the answer might explain why the country still hasn’t had a female vice president or president.Laura Van Berkel, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of CologneLudwin Molina, Associate Professor of Psychology, University of KansasSahana Mukherjee, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Gettysburg CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.