tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/hankuk-university-of-foreign-studies-3677/articlesHankuk University of Foreign Studies2019-04-18T10:44:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1156172019-04-18T10:44:41Z2019-04-18T10:44:41ZBolsonaro’s approval rating is worse than any past Brazilian president at the 100-day mark<p>Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was elected last year on a wave of popular anger at the country’s stagnant economy and political chaos, promising voters a “<a href="https://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/politica/noticia/7144371/desanimado-com-politica-economist-aponta-quem-pode-ser-esperanca-melhor">better future</a>.”</p>
<p>After just over 100 days in office, many Brazilians <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/04/09/world/americas/ap-lt-brazil-bolsonaro-100-days.html">feel this right-wing former congressman has not delivered</a> on that promise. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s approval rating, which began dropping immediately after he took office on Jan. 1, has declined from <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/03/20/governo-bolsonaro-tem-aprovacao-de-34-e-reprovacao-de-24-diz-pesquisa-ibope.ghtml">49% in January to 34% in late March</a>, according to the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics. That’s the lowest ever recorded for a Brazilian president at the 100-day mark.</p>
<h2>Nepotism, hate speech and mismanagement</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro’s rise to <a href="https://theconversation.com/bolsonaro-wins-brazil-election-promises-to-purge-leftists-from-country-105481">lead Latin America’s biggest country</a> after 13 years of leftist leadership was made possible by years of overlapping political, economic and crime crises that created widespread <a href="https://theconversation.com/disillusioned-brazilians-choose-bolsonaro-haddad-after-a-tense-and-violent-campaign-104224">disillusionment</a> across Brazil.</p>
<p>Capitalizing on voter frustrations, Bolsonaro, a longtime lower house representative, ran a polarizing outsider campaign not unlike the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-divided-country-gets-a-divisive-election/2016/01/09/591bfccc-b61f-11e5-a842-0feb51d1d124_story.html">2016 presidential campaign of Donald Trump</a>, now a close <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/us/politics/bolsonaro-trump.html">ally</a>. He demonized women and minorities, attacked democratic institutions and, according to a Brazilian court, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/14/world/americas/brazil-president-candidate-hate.html">incited hate and violence</a>. </p>
<p>Still, he won the presidency last October with <a href="https://theconversation.com/bolsonaro-wins-brazil-election-promises-to-purge-leftists-from-country-105481">55% of the vote</a>, less than the more than 60% received by the leftist former president <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/29/world/americas/30brazilcnd.html">Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva</a>, who won the 2002 and 2006 elections in a landslide. In Brazil, voting is compulsory.</p>
<p>Many Brazilians expressed hope that, once in office, Bolsonaro would set the demagogy and bigotry aside to focus on addressing the huge challenges facing Brazil. These include a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-brazil-go-from-rising-bric-to-sinking-ship-57029">long-stagnant economy</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-in-political-crisis-over-jailed-president-4-essential-reads-91143">rampant government corruption</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/caught-between-police-and-gangs-rio-de-janeiro-residents-are-dying-in-the-line-of-fire-83016">record-setting urban violence</a>.</p>
<p>That hasn’t happened.</p>
<p>Hours after taking office, Bolsonaro issued an executive order that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/02/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-amazon-rainforest-protections">decreased environmental protections of the Amazon</a>, outraging environmentalists worldwide and endangering the indigenous Brazilians who live in the world’s biggest rainforest. </p>
<p>On a recent visit to the Holocaust Museum in Israel, Bolsonaro made headlines for claiming that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-brazil/brazils-president-calls-nazis-leftists-after-israel-holocaust-museum-visit-idUSKCN1RF1QD">Germany’s Nazi Party was a leftist regime</a>. His foreign affairs minister only made things worse when he defended his boss’s comments by explaining that both Nazis and socialists are “<a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/ernesto-araujo-volta-defender-que-nazismo-foi-um-fenomeno-de-esquerda-23562729">anti-capitalist, anti-religion, collectivist [and] against individual freedom</a>.”</p>
<h2>Picking unnecessary fights</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro has demonstrated a lack of mastery of the legislative process, despite having been a lawmaker for nearly three decades.</p>
<p>Reforming Brazil’s expensive, ailing pension system was one of Bolsonaro’s main <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics/bolsonaros-economic-guru-urges-quick-brazil-pension-reform-idUSKCN1N41EB">electoral promises</a> to boost the economy. But his mismanagement of negotiations around a bill to save Brazil <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-pensions-factbox/factbox-pension-reform-brazils-uphill-battle-to-save-1-trillion-reais-idUSKCN1RH1VY">$US270 billion over the next 10 years</a> by raising the retirement age and increasing individual contributions has frustrated the fragile, cross-party coalition of lawmakers working to pass his plan.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro has <a href="http://www.brazilmonitor.com/index.php/2019/03/23/bolsonaro-and-maia-hangs-a-duel-with-statements-about-pension-reform-voting/">picked fights</a> with supporters of the bill, including the speaker of the lower house. And he has failed to explain <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-politics/brazils-bolsonaro-signals-weaker-pension-reform-concern-over-boeing-deal-idUKKCN1OY0UN">critical aspects of the proposed reform</a>. </p>
<p>Pension reform, which requires three-fifths congressional support to pass, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-pensions/update-1-brazil-aims-to-pass-pension-reform-by-mid-year-source-idUSL1N1ZN1Y1">now seems unlikely to happen</a> before the June deadline Bolsonaro set – if it happens at all. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269847/original/file-20190417-139104-fvhkiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pension reform also eluded Bolsonaro’s predecessor, former President Michel Temer, who was indicted on charges of money laundering in March.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Brazil-Corruption-Probe/dfc5bdb74a994cb098c5fe9ca571e9e2/4/0">AP Photo/Leo Correa</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bolsonaro’s controversial cabinet</h2>
<p>Concerns over corruption have likewise clouded Bolsonaro’s first 100 days.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro has failed to take seriously repeated corruption allegations against <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/12/world/americas/brazil-women-candidates-money.html">numerous aides</a>. That’s risky in Brazil, where a multi-year judicial investigation still underway has sent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/21/brazils-former-president-michel-temer-arrested-in-corruption-investigation">two presidents</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/brazils-corruption-fallout">several lawmakers</a> and dozens of corporate executives to jail for bribery.</p>
<p>And Bolsonaro recently raised eyebrows by suggesting that he’d like to appoint his son Carlos, a far-right Rio de Janiero city councilman who manages the president’s Twitter feed, <a href="https://jovempan.uol.com.br/programas/os-pingos-nos-is/merecia-um-cargo-de-ministro-ele-me-colocou-aqui-diz-bolsonaro-sobre-filho-carlos.html">to join his cabinet</a>. All three of the president’s sons play an unusually active role in their father’s government.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s frequent positive references to military dictatorship as a form of governance also has critics worried.</p>
<p>Protests erupted in early April after Bolsonaro <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190401-bolsonaro-coup-anniversary-brazil-protest-dictator">called on Brazilians</a> to honor the anniversary of the <a href="http://oxfordre.com/latinamericanhistory/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-623">1964 coup</a> that ushered in military rule in Brazil. Brazil’s 24-year military dictatorship claimed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/10/brazil-president-weeps-report-military-dictatorship-abuses">191 lives</a>, “disappeared” 210 dissidents and tortured several thousand people, according to a <a href="https://libya360.wordpress.com/2014/12/11/brazilian-commission-report-details-murder-and-torture-by-us-backed-dictatorship/">2014 government report</a>. </p>
<p>“Liberty and democracy only exist when the armed forces want them to,” Bolsonaro has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics/brazils-bolsonaro-says-democracy-liberty-depend-on-military-idUSKCN1QO2AT">since commented</a>.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro served in Brazil’s armed forces. His vice president, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuf1N5bY1Hs">Hamilton Mourão</a>, is a retired general. And eight out of the 22 ministers in Bolsonaro’s cabinet are military officers. </p>
<p>That’s a higher proportion of military men in government than any prior democratic administration in Brazil – higher even than <a href="https://veja.abril.com.br/politica/bolsonaro-supera-geisel-medici-e-figueiredo-em-ministros-militares/">some of its authoritarian regimes</a>.</p>
<p>Some of Bolsonaro’s civilian cabinet ministers are equally controversial. </p>
<p>Damares Alves, the evangelical pastor picked to lead Brazil’s Ministry of Women, Family and Human Rights, has made it her mission to promote “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/06/outcry-over-bolsonaros-plan-to-put-conservative-in-charge-of-new-family-and-women-ministry">family values</a>,” which entails promoting traditional values and combating abortion as well as gender equality.</p>
<p>“It’s a new era in Brazil: Boys wear blue and girls wear pink!” she <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6myjru-e81U">announced</a> on her first day in office.</p>
<p>Historically, the human rights ministry has worked to improve the lives of minorities in Brazil and ensure their legal protection.</p>
<p>And Bolsonaro’s first minister of education, Ricardo Vélez Rodríguez – <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/bolsonaro-fires-brazils-controversial-education-minister/a-48257072">who has since been fired for mismanagement</a> – outraged teachers when he ordered all public schools to submit to the ministry a video of schoolchildren singing the national anthem on the first day of the new school year.</p>
<p>Brazil’s literacy rate is among the lowest in Latin America, <a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/education/country/brazil">at 92%</a>. And its school dropout rate is among the region’s highest: <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.CMPT.LO.ZS?locations=BR">28% of students never graduate</a>.</p>
<p>His demand may also have been illegal, since Brazilian law prohibits the recording of minors without parental consent.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro was elected to snap Brazil out of a deep slump. After three months in office, the “better future” he promised looks a lot like the crisis that came before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115617/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helder do Vale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bolsonaro was elected to bring Brazil a ‘better future.’ Instead, his first months in office have been marked by mismanagement, legislative gridlock and protest.Helder do Vale, Associate Professor, Graduate School of International and Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1054812018-10-29T00:52:23Z2018-10-29T00:52:23ZBolsonaro wins Brazil election, promises to purge leftists from country<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242634/original/file-20181028-7056-1yv865l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bolsonaro supporters celebrate outside his home in Rio de Janeiro after exit polls on Oct. 28 declared him the preliminary winner of Brazil's 2018 presidential election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Brazil-Elections/8c0877c5b3174268a3bc7f834be5a083/2/0">AP Photo/Leo Correa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After the most <a href="https://theconversation.com/mapping-brazils-political-polarization-online-96434">polarized</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/brazil-election-all-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-the-vote.html">divisive campaign</a> in its modern history, Brazil has <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/noticia/2018/10/28/jair-bolsonaro-e-eleito-presidente-e-interrompe-serie-de-vitorias-do-pt.ghtml">elected as its next president</a> a right-wing politician who openly disdains human rights and admires military dictators.</p>
<p>Jair Bolsonaro, a 63-year-old congressman who had <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-evangelicals-swinging-hard-to-the-right-could-put-a-trump-like-populist-in-the-presidency-96845">strong evangelical backing</a> for his law-and-order stance on policing, support for gun rights and opposition to abortion, won 55 percent of votes. Bolsonaro’s leftist competitor, Fernando Haddad, a former education minister and ex-mayor of São Paulo, received 45 percent of the roughly 100 million ballots cast. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s angry, populist campaign rhetoric led many newspapers and public figures worldwide to declare his candidacy a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/25/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-democracy-rights">threat to democracy</a>. But 57.8 million Brazilians on Sunday showed less concern about Bolsonaro’s message.</p>
<p>Haddad, his opponent, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20180911-brazil-workers-party-selects-fernando-haddad-presidential-candidate-drops-lula">joined Brazil’s presidential race</a> less than a month before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/disillusioned-brazilians-choose-bolsonaro-haddad-after-a-tense-and-violent-campaign-104224">first round of voting</a>. The Workers Party, which has run Brazil since 2002, tapped Haddad to replace front-runner Inacio Lula de Silva, a wildly popular former president <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-in-political-crisis-over-jailed-president-4-essential-reads-91143">jailed on corruption charges in July</a>. Haddad was unable to retain Lula’s lead. </p>
<h2>Brazil’s politics of disillusionment</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro’s victory will likely worsen an already acute crisis in Brazil, the second-most populous nation in the Western Hemisphere.</p>
<p>Once a <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-economy-why-i-was-wrong-to-be-an-optimist-101685">rising star in the developing world</a>, Brazil has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/facing-unemployment-austerity-and-scandal-brazil-struggles-to-keep-it-together-71663">mired in severe recession</a> and political turmoil since 2015. Hundreds of politicians, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-in-political-crisis-over-jailed-president-4-essential-reads-91143">former President Lula</a>, have been arrested and jailed in a judicial investigation that has exposed corruption at the highest levels of government.</p>
<p>That corruption has consequences: A survey conducted in August by the <a href="http://www.ibopeinteligencia.com/noticias-e-pesquisas/confianca-do-brasileiro-nas-instituicoes-e-a-mais-baixa-desde-2009/">Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics</a> showed that only 25 percent of citizens trusted their federal government and 18 percent trusted Congress. </p>
<p>In such circumstances, Bolsonaro’s win as an anti-establishment candidate was predictable – and not just because Bolsonaro had maintained a clear lead in the polls ever since Lula withdrew in September. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242635/original/file-20181028-7068-mxzwnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242635/original/file-20181028-7068-mxzwnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242635/original/file-20181028-7068-mxzwnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242635/original/file-20181028-7068-mxzwnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242635/original/file-20181028-7068-mxzwnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242635/original/file-20181028-7068-mxzwnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242635/original/file-20181028-7068-mxzwnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brazil’s next president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Brazil-Elections/efee31dae3e24db782c3da83aef19893/4/0">AP Photo/Silvia izquierdo</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>When voters don’t believe in their politicians or government institutions, candidates who tap into voter disdain for the political system can find success. In my scholarly research on democratization, <a href="http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3034146">this is what I call</a> the “politics of disillusionment.”</p>
<p>This phenomenon helped conservative outsiders to win in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-wins-us-election-scholars-from-around-the-world-react-68282">United States</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/its-the-right-wings-italy-now/562256/">Italy</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/09/viktor-orban-re-election-hungarys-anti-immigrant-leader-major-challenge-for-eu">Hungary</a>.</p>
<p>Now, disillusionment in Brazil has handed victory to a right-wing populist who promises to purge the country of his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/22/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-says-he-would-put-army-on-streets-to-fight">leftist opponents</a>.</p>
<p>“Either they go overseas, or they go to jail,” he told a huge crowd in São Paulo in one of his last appearances before Sunday’s vote. </p>
<h2>Inflammatory rhetoric and militarism</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro has been in Congress for three decades. But to harness popular rage against the system, his campaign offered an outsider’s scathing critique of Brazilian society.</p>
<p>In response to rampant political corruption and extreme violence in Brazil, Bolsonaro defended <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d7df60cc-b7c4-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe">military dictatorships</a> like the one that ran Brazil from 1964 to 1985. The only problem with Brazil’s former authoritarian leaders, Bolsonaro said, was that they “<a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/bolsonaro-harnesses-disillusion-with-brazil-s-traditional-politics-1.3634572">tortured rather than killed</a>” dissenters. </p>
<p>Critics say his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/21/world/americas/brazils-election-military.html">adulation of the military</a> raises serious doubts about the future of Brazil’s 33-year-old democracy.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro, a former army captain, regularly uses <a href="http://time.com/5375731/jair-bolsonaro/">homophobic, misogynistic and racist rhetoric</a> against large swaths of Brazil’s population. He has said that he would “never allow” his children to get <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/wtf/is-this-the-worlds-most-repulsive-politician/news-story/926a4a59cf6132f770dfdbd46f610e97">romantically involved with a black person</a> and that he was “incapable of loving a homosexual son.” </p>
<p>Bolsonaro also once told a fellow congressional representative that she “did not deserve to be raped” by him because she was “terrible and ugly.”</p>
<p>His candidacy was met by outrage and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/30/huge-protests-in-brazil-as-far-right-presidential-hopeful-jair-bolsonaro-returns-home">mass protest by women</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hundreds of thousands of women across Brazil marched against Bolsonaro, who is known for his disparaging remarks about women, on Sept. 29.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Brazil-Elections-Bolsonaro/8f6c1736aacb43c4b251a2a6827d7cba/32/0">AP Photo/Andre Penner</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The president-elect’s ambiguous policy agenda</h2>
<p>Beyond his inflammatory rhetoric, Bolsonaro has offered <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/blog/are-brazilians-ready-bet-bolsonaro">few specifics</a> about how he would govern Brazil.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election/brazil-right-winger-to-skip-debates-cannot-campaign-aide-idUSKCN1MQ12N">skipped presidential debates</a> and <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/brazil-election/brazil-presidential-candidate-bolsonaro-avoids-tv-debate-question-idUKE6N1U603T">avoided tough questions</a> about whether he would make economic and political reforms to help get Brazil out of its three-year-long crisis.</p>
<p>To tackle record-high crime, the president-elect has said he will ease gun laws and reduce the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16. He is a staunch proponent of <a href="https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/opinion-editorial/opinion-brazils-informal-death-penalty/">restarting the death penalty</a> in Brazil, saying he would “volunteer to kill <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW_3PW5QxJ8">those on death row</a>” himself.</p>
<p>Brazil has the world’s third-largest prison population. <a href="https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-politics/brazil-has-worlds-third-largest-prison-population/">Sixty-four percent of those incarcerated are black</a>. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro also wants to end <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/eleicoes-2018/por-que-nao-estudam-diz-bolsonaro-sobre-cotas-para-negros">affirmative action at Brazilian public universities</a>.</p>
<p>He considers abortion to be <a href="https://www.pragmatismopolitico.com.br/2018/08/bolsonaro-contra-o-aborto.html">murder</a>. The procedure is banned in Brazil, but in recent years women’s groups have been pushing to liberalize abortion laws. That is unlikely to happen under Bolsonaro. </p>
<p>Some analysts have <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/region/latin_america/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-election-economy-populist-politics-latin-america-news-51621/">suggested</a> that Congress may rein in Bolsonaro’s more radical tendencies. But evidence from the United States and elsewhere suggests that in the politics of disillusion, presidents who campaign as extremist govern as extremists. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro takes office on Jan. 1. Brazil’s political institutions, already weakened by corruption and public outrage, will face great pressure to show that they can withstand the new president’s populist ambitions and militaristic instincts. </p>
<p>It is a daunting challenge for Brazil’s young and, I fear, faltering democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105481/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helder do Vale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing congressman and former army captain, is Brazil’s next president, with 56 percent of votes. Critics see a threat to democracy in his scathing attacks on Brazilian society.Helder do Vale, Associate Professor, Graduate School of International and Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1042242018-10-08T14:53:08Z2018-10-08T14:53:08Z‘Disillusioned’ Brazilians choose Bolsonaro, Haddad after a tense and violent campaign<p>After a tense, violent and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/brazil-election-all-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-the-vote.html">polarized campaign</a>, Brazilians have voted to advance two candidates from opposite sides of the ideological spectrum to a presidential runoff on Oct. 28.</p>
<p>Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right congressman who enjoys <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-evangelicals-swinging-hard-to-the-right-could-put-a-trump-like-populist-in-the-presidency-96845">strong evangelical backing</a> for his law-and-order stance on policing, support for gun rights and opposition to abortion, won 46 percent of the valid votes. </p>
<p>Fernando Haddad, a leftist candidate of the Brazilian Workers Party and former mayor of São Paulo, came in second place with 29 percent, his portion of the vote split with the other left-of-center presidential candidates, Ciro Gomes and Marina Silva. </p>
<p>Nine other presidential candidates shared the remaining 12 percent of the vote.</p>
<p>In addition to choosing their top two picks for president, Brazil’s 147 million voters also <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2018/09/brazil-elections-2018-glance-180926180151595.html">voted on Oct. 7 for two-thirds of the Senate and more than 500 congressional representatives</a>, races that featured a <a href="https://theconversation.com/sexism-racism-drive-more-black-women-to-run-for-office-in-both-brazil-and-us-104208">historic number of black women candidates</a> running for local office. </p>
<p>Congress will remain highly fragmented, <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2018/10/08/pt-perde-deputados-mas-ainda-tem-maior-bancada-da-camara-psl-de-bolsonaro-ganha-52-representantes.ghtml">with no political party controlling a majority of seats</a>. But maintaining a pattern seen in previous elections, conservative caucuses – which represent the evangelical, agribusiness and crime-fighting interests – have increased their influence.</p>
<p>Despite electing right-of-center candidates to Congress, Sunday’s vote also show the <a href="https://epoca.globo.com/expresso/pesquisas-sugerem-derrotas-de-seis-ex-ministros-de-temer-23135744">loss of support for traditional parliamentarians</a>. Several influential Brazilian politicians were not reelected. The results for state governors’ races paint a more complex picture. Left-wing candidates won in the first round in <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/apuracao/brasil/">seven of Brazil’s 27 states</a>, showing progressive parties’ continues popularity at the state level.</p>
<h2>Disinterested voters</h2>
<p>The stakes of this year’s election are extremely high.</p>
<p>Once a <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-economy-why-i-was-wrong-to-be-an-optimist-101685">rising star in the developing world</a>, Brazil has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/facing-unemployment-austerity-and-scandal-brazil-struggles-to-keep-it-together-71663">mired in severe recession</a> and political turmoil since 2015. </p>
<p>Hundreds of politicians, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-in-political-crisis-over-jailed-president-4-essential-reads-91143">former President Lula</a>, have been arrested and jailed in a judicial investigation that has exposed corruption at the highest level of government.</p>
<p>Now, as the country prepares for its presidential runoff, public trust in Brazil’s politicians and political institutions has never been lower. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239526/original/file-20181005-72100-1yjeras.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hundreds of thousands of women across Brazil marched against presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who is known for his disparaging remarks about women, on Sept. 29.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Brazil-Elections-Bolsonaro/8f6c1736aacb43c4b251a2a6827d7cba/32/0">AP Photo/Andre Penner</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A survey conducted in August by the <a href="http://www.ibopeinteligencia.com/noticias-e-pesquisas/confianca-do-brasileiro-nas-instituicoes-e-a-mais-baixa-desde-2009/">Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics</a> showed that only 25 percent of citizens trusted their federal government and 18 percent trusted Congress. </p>
<p>Other public opinion polling has put faith in Brazil’s government <a href="http://cms.cnt.org.br/Imagens%20CNT/PDFs%20CNT/Pesquisa%20CNT%20MDA/resultados_relatorio_cnt_mda_136.pdf">closer to zero</a>.</p>
<p>The 2018 campaign did little to reassure the electorate.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro, who trailed the popular former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva by a wide margin throughout the campaign, saw a boost in the polls after he was <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/09/08/jair-bolsonaro-is-stabbed-at-a-rally">stabbed at a campaign rally on Sept. 6</a>. His attacker appears to suffer from mental health problems, but the attacker’s Facebook posts also showed <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45451473">outrage</a> at both Bolsonaro and Brazil’s political system in general.</p>
<p>The election was thrown into further disarray a few days later when front-runner Lula – who was <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-in-political-crisis-over-jailed-president-4-essential-reads-91143">jailed on corruption charges in July</a> – was forced to withdraw from the presidential bid after an electoral commission ruled he could not stand for office. </p>
<p>With less than a month to go before election day, the Workers Party chose <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20180911-brazil-workers-party-selects-fernando-haddad-presidential-candidate-drops-lula">Fernando Haddad</a>, education minister under Lula, to replace Lula on the ticket. </p>
<p>Lula had been in first place with 37 percent of voter support, but his forced withdrawal put Bolsonaro into the lead.</p>
<p>Yet nearly <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/09/ataque-a-bolsonaro-ajudou-a-conquistar-eleitores-indecisos-diz-mourao.shtml">20 percent of voters were still undecided</a> in the final days of the race – a sign of the general lack of interest in the electoral process this year. </p>
<h2>Politics of disillusionment</h2>
<p>The fact is that Brazilians, who are required by law to vote, will return to the polls on Oct. 28 with very little expectation either Bolsonaro or Haddad will do much to improve their lives – despite the country’s instability and troubles. Both candidates in the latest polls had more than <a href="https://exame.abril.com.br/brasil/alta-rejeicao-a-bolsonaro-e-haddad-impoe-dificuldades-de-governo-em-2019/">40 percent rejection rates</a>.</p>
<p>Such situations tend to favor <a href="http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3034146">what I call</a> the “politics of disillusionment.”</p>
<p>When voters don’t believe in their politicians or government institutions, candidates who tap into voter disdain for the political system can find success. In my opinion, this phenomenon helped lead right-wing outsiders to triumph in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-wins-us-election-scholars-from-around-the-world-react-68282">United States</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/its-the-right-wings-italy-now/562256/">Italy</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/09/viktor-orban-re-election-hungarys-anti-immigrant-leader-major-challenge-for-eu">Hungary</a>.</p>
<p>Over the last eight months, the politics of disillusionment have driven Brazil’s presidential race. </p>
<p>The two front-runners – Bolsonaro and Lula – may sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they both espoused an openly anti-establishment agenda throughout the campaign. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203589/original/file-20180126-100902-17ti9q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=885&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even from jail, former President Lula has loomed large over Brazil’s election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/Gbhkk3">Agência Brasil Fotografias/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rather than make concrete proposals for pulling Brazil out of the crisis that grips it, Lula – who <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-lula-poll/brazils-lula-to-leave-with-record-high-popularity-idUSTRE6BF4O620101216">left office in 2010</a> with 80 percent approval – spent much his campaign attacking the country’s political institutions. </p>
<p>He depicted Brazil’s judiciary as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/presidential-corruption-verdict-shows-just-how-flawed-brazils-justice-system-is-90794">corrupt institution</a> in the thrall of powerful right-wing politicians who use Congress to persecute their enemies. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rACx1sDDL9w">campaign video</a> released a week before he was deemed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election/brazils-jailed-former-leader-lula-ends-presidential-bid-idUSKCN1LR08N">ineligible to run for president</a>, Lula said he was a victim of Brazil’s broken political system.</p>
<p>“I am an innocent,” he said. “These judges are trying to prevent an innocent man from once again running a government that’s good for Brazil.”</p>
<h2>Racism, misogyny and anger</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro’s rightist critique of Brazilian society is far more scathing.</p>
<p>To capitalize on Brazilian voters’ frustration with political corruption and extreme violence, the former army captain <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d7df60cc-b7c4-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe">defends Brazil’s military dictatorship</a> which ran the country from 1964 to 1985, saying that the only problem with the authoritarian leaders was that they “tortured rather than killed” dissenters.</p>
<p>He also regularly uses <a href="http://time.com/5375731/jair-bolsonaro/">homophobic, misogynistic and racist rhetoric</a> to stigmatize, sideline or criminalize large swaths of Brazilian society. Critics point to Bolsonaro’s often violent messages as one explanation for the Sept. 6 knife attack against him.</p>
<p>When asked why he wants to roll back affirmative action at Brazilian public universities, Bolsonaro replied with a <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/eleicoes-2018/por-que-nao-estudam-diz-bolsonaro-sobre-cotas-para-negros">question</a>: “Why don’t they [minorities] just study?”</p>
<p>He has also said that he would “never allow” his children to get <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/wtf/is-this-the-worlds-most-repulsive-politician/news-story/926a4a59cf6132f770dfdbd46f610e97">romantically involved with a black person</a>. He told a fellow congressional representative that she “did not deserve to be raped” by him because she was “terrible and ugly.”</p>
<p>Bolsonaro also considers abortion to be <a href="https://www.pragmatismopolitico.com.br/2018/08/bolsonaro-contra-o-aborto.html">murder</a>. His candidacy was met by outrage and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/30/huge-protests-in-brazil-as-far-right-presidential-hopeful-jair-bolsonaro-returns-home">mass protest by women</a>.</p>
<p>To tackle Brazil’s record-high violence, Bolsonaro says he would ease gun laws and reduce the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16. He is a staunch proponent of reactivating the death penalty in Brazil, saying that he would “volunteer to kill <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW_3PW5QxJ8">those on death row</a>” himself. </p>
<p>Brazil has the world’s third-largest prison population. <a href="https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-politics/brazil-has-worlds-third-largest-prison-population/">Sixty-four percent of those incarcerated are black</a>.</p>
<h2>The triumph of radicalism</h2>
<p>The outcome of Brazil’s first-round presidential election reveals a <a href="https://theconversation.com/mapping-brazils-political-polarization-online-96434">deeply polarized</a>, angry and alienated electorate.</p>
<p>In such a political climate, my experience shows that the most radical candidate – in this case Bolsonaro – is likely to triumph.</p>
<p>Haddad has <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/noticia/2018/10/07/haddad-comemora-ida-ao-segundo-turno-e-diz-que-quer-unir-os-democratas-no-brasil.ghtml">softened the kind of anti-establishment discourse</a> Lula used, hoping to attract moderate voters, and he may well have more concrete proposals for reforming and improving a democracy that’s frayed at the edges.</p>
<p>But in the politics of disillusionment, that will give him no advantage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104224/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helder do Vale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After four years of economic crisis and corruption, Brazilians have never trusted their government less. They showed their frustration Sunday, voting for two ideologically opposed candidates.Helder do Vale, Associate Professor, Graduate School of International and Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.