tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/nyu-shanghai-2749/articlesNYU Shanghai2023-07-17T12:26:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2086472023-07-17T12:26:53Z2023-07-17T12:26:53ZWhat the US can learn from affirmative action at universities in Brazil<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537512/original/file-20230714-20840-9sb46u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C31%2C5252%2C3491&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Affirmative action for college students in Brazil led to better employment prospects for those who benefited from the policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/brazilian-students-royalty-free-image/623768390?phrase=brazil+college+&adppopup=true">Cesar Okada via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Brazil <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/world/americas/brazil-enacts-affirmative-action-law-for-universities.html">implemented affirmative action</a> at its federal universities in 2012, the policy prompted a public debate that largely resembles the debate over affirmative action in the United States.</p>
<p>Brazil’s affirmative action policy requires every federal university to reserve at least half of all seats for students from certain groups. Out of that half, about half of the seats go solely to Black, mixed and Indigenous Brazilians. The other half go to low-income public-school students. Other universities are free to set their admissions policies. </p>
<p>Like many Americans, some Brazilians worried that affirmative action would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/world/americas/brazil-enacts-affirmative-action-law-for-universities.html">reduce the quality of education in public universities</a>. Some were concerned that only <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/op/a/QyKvRBhmPkKc5f8v7LHFWbg/?lang=pt">the more privileged members in the targeted groups would benefit</a> and that affirmative action wasn’t worth it. Others doubted that beneficiaries could keep up academically and feared that their <a href="https://ojs.ufgd.edu.br/index.php/movimentacao/article/viewFile/5113/3957">peers would suffer</a> as a result.</p>
<p>As researchers who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ma37cqEAAAAJ&hl=en">college admissions</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=V6FhDu4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">economics</a> and the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AfGX7nYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">equity of social interventions and policies</a>, we took a critical look at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12564">effects of affirmative action in Brazil</a>. To do this, we examined prior research, as well as the effects of affirmative action on student learning and future earnings. In America, these outcomes are difficult to study because, prior to the use of race being banned in college admissions, schools implemented affirmative action as they saw fit. In Brazil, all federal universities had to implement affirmative action the same way.</p>
<h2>Unfounded fears</h2>
<p>Brazilian federal universities are some of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-has-tuition-free-college-but-it-only-serves-a-portion-of-its-citizens-2015-6">best in the country</a>. Even more importantly, they are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-has-tuition-free-college-but-it-only-serves-a-portion-of-its-citizens-2015-6">tuition-free</a>. They are the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/04/brazil-where-free-universities-largely-serve-the-wealthy/389997/">preferred universities</a> for most high school students and their families. Historically, mostly well-off students attended these universities.</p>
<p>Through our research, we concluded not only that Brazilians’ fears about affirmative action lowering the quality of the nation’s universities were largely unwarranted, but also that across most measures the policy has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12564">proved to be quite beneficial</a>. </p>
<p>Specifically, we found that:</p>
<p>• Those admitted to universities via affirmative action performed quite well in their studies. By the time they graduated, their grade-point averages were not much different from the GPAs of other students. In the most selective majors, the disparities in GPAs that existed when students began their studies <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joes.12564">had largely disappeared by graduation</a>. </p>
<p>• Students admitted through affirmative action <a href="https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.47.3.754">did not hamper the learning of their peers</a>. Sometimes, they outperformed peers who entered college the regular way without affirmative action. This is a reminder that traditional admissions processes may not be as meritocratic as some people may think.</p>
<p>• Students admitted via affirmative action were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.017">7% more likely</a> to work as managers or directors later in their careers than if the policy were not in effect. Such students also end up with many more years of education than they would otherwise. This means that many of these students would not pursue a higher education degree at all if these places were not reserved for them.</p>
<h2>Implications for the United States</h2>
<p>As elite colleges and universities in the U.S. grapple with how to achieve diversity after the Supreme Court banned the use of race in college admissions, we believe our findings bear particular relevance.</p>
<p>Some Americans argue that schools can achieve diversity <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104839">through race-neutral policies</a>. At least in the Brazilian context, we found that race-neutral policies were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12564">ineffective for achieving racial diversity</a>.</p>
<p>We found that race-targeted policies were associated with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2019.101931">significant increase in Black students</a>, whereas race-neutral policies didn’t affect the percentage of Black, mixed and Indigenous Brazilian students in college. Part of the reason is because a large share of candidates, white and nonwhite, compete under income-based quotas. Thus, income-based quotas do not effect the racial composition of university students because these quotas benefit students from all racial backgrounds.</p>
<p>Race-based affirmative action seems necessary to achieve racial diversity, according to the Brazilian evidence. This is consistent with at least one other study from the U.S., where race-neutral policies have been shown to be <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20161290">less effective than those explicitly considering race</a>. </p>
<p>By almost every measure studied, affirmative action in Brazil worked to generate a more diverse student body without reducing the quality of education. Even so, the inequality in Brazil’s higher education system remains. </p>
<p>In 2000, out of the 853,000 students enrolled in tuition-free public universities, around 596,000 were white and 239,000 were Black. By 2010, the system had expanded to 1,788,000 places, <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/cp/a/tttVNfkLTtGXpmB8JDFcdnD/?lang=pt#ModalFigf4">with white students numbering 1,063,000 and Black students 689,000</a>. Brazil’s congress successfully made affirmative action mandatory in part because of the large impact of the many-but-scattered initiatives by public universities in the 2000s. </p>
<p>As the U.S. grapples with issues of equity and access to higher education, Brazil’s experience imparts valuable lessons. There, race-based affirmative action policies promote diversity and the values of equal opportunity that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01339-1">American universities like to espouse</a>. Race-based affirmative action can effectively increase enrollment of underrepresented minorities without compromising academic performance. This is something that income-based quotas may not be able to accomplish. Further, the Brazilian experience shows that these policies do not negatively impact other students.</p>
<p>Now that the U.S. courts have banned the use of race in college admissions, college and university leaders must find and adopt new ways to make their campuses more diverse. How to achieve that may be a challenge, but it seems to remain a worthwhile pursuit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research has found that race-neutral policies were not enough to achieve diversity in Brazil’s higher education system. Three scholars probe what that means for the United States.Neil Lewis Jr., Associate Professor of Communication and Social Behavior, Cornell UniversityInácio Bó, Associate Professor of Economics, University of MacauRodrigo Zeidan, Professor of Practice, NYU Shanghai and Fundação Dom Cabral, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/803072017-07-10T06:12:46Z2017-07-10T06:12:46ZWhy China’s currency manipulation isn’t a problem<p>US President Donald Trump was right to accuse China of manipulating its currency – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/12/trump-says-he-will-not-label-china-currency-manipulator-reversing-campaign-promise/?utm_term=.f56e96d17275">before changing his mind</a>.</p>
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<p>The same charge, however, could have been levelled from anywhere in the world. </p>
<p>Whether directly or indirectly, every country manipulates its money to a certain degree. Even among the one in three countries with floating currencies, about half consistently intervene to create stronger or weaker exchange rates. </p>
<p>The US has a floating currency, which means that the value of the dollar changes daily in response to the supply and demand for the greenback around the world. </p>
<p>But the central bank can affect the exchange rate as well, albeit indirectly. The US dollar rises and falls on pronouncements from the Federal Reserve about <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/13/dollar-on-tenterhooks-as-investors-await-fed-policy-clues.html">interest rates</a>. </p>
<p>What really matters is not the manipulation but if it has deleterious effects on the rest of the world. Today, there are no such effects from China. Here is why. </p>
<h2>Price control scheme</h2>
<p>In a fixed exchange-rate regime (known as a peg), a country determines the price of its local currency and, as needed, buys or sells foreign currency to maintain that price. </p>
<p>This is analogous to any price-control scheme. If a gallon of gasoline cost US$1, for example, the government would have to supply extra fuel if demand increased. Conversely, if gas were US$5 per gallon, and fewer people than expected were buying, the government would have to pick up the slack. </p>
<p>Fixed rates require a country to correct any mismatch between supply and demand.</p>
<p><strong>Figure 1: Number of countries per exchange rate regime</strong></p>
<table>
<tbody><tr>
<td>
<p><b>EXCHANGE RATE REGIME</b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p><b>NUMBER OF COUNTRIES</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p><b>No separate legal tender</b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p>13</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p><b>Currency Board</b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p>12</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p><b>Conventional peg¹ </b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p>66</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p><b>Crawling peg² </b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p>17</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p><b>Other managed arrangements</b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p>18</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p><b>Floating</b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p>36</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p><b>Free Floating</b></p>
</td>
<td>
<p>29</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/2014/areaers/ar2014.pdf">IMF</a>.</p>
<p>¹ Stabilised arrangements were added to the conventional peg classification.</p>
<p>² incorporates both crawling and crawling-like pegs.</p>
<p>When market agents stop believing that the government will step in to keep prices stable, then we have what is called a speculative attack. Domestic and foreign investors start to sell off a country’s currency assets.</p>
<p>A “shadow” price is then estimated, in the absence of government intervention. A government can maintain a peg whose fixed exchange-rate is different from its shadow price only if it is able or willing to undergo massive interventions in the foreign-currency market. </p>
<h2>Undervalued currency</h2>
<p>An undervalued currency was the norm in China in <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2005/september/a-look-at-china-new-exchange-rate-regime">the mid 2000s</a>, when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set 8 yuan per US$1. </p>
<p>With a shadow price well below that exchange rate, the inflow and the outflow of foreign currency went out of whack. </p>
<p>An undervalued peg creates an artificially weak exchange rate; demand is higher for foreign currency. For American exports this is bad, as it inflates the costs of companies buying American goods. China rode an undervalued peg during the 1990s and 2000s, keeping exports relatively cheap and imports artificially expensive. </p>
<p>An overvalued peg, on the other hand, makes local currency stronger than it should be. Many Latin American countries, including, <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/411111468768684008/129529322_20041117151102/additional/wps3322.pdf">famously, Argentina</a>, had an overvalued peg in the 1990s, <a href="http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2882/currency/problems-of-overvalued-exchange-rate/">and their export companies suffered</a>. </p>
<p>The best and the easiest way to estimate the shadow price in the case of the evolving Chinese peg is through changes in the country’s foreign reserves. </p>
<p>When the peg was undervalued, the PBOC bought foreign currency to keep the yuan undervalued. This is how China accumulated its large foreign holdings of mainly American treasury and other government bonds.</p>
<p><strong>Figure 2: Foreign Reserves of China (in USD trillion)</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176288/original/file-20170629-5925-1d8wyqc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176288/original/file-20170629-5925-1d8wyqc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176288/original/file-20170629-5925-1d8wyqc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176288/original/file-20170629-5925-1d8wyqc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176288/original/file-20170629-5925-1d8wyqc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176288/original/file-20170629-5925-1d8wyqc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176288/original/file-20170629-5925-1d8wyqc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Why Chinas Currency Manipulation Isnt a Problem eb.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PBOC</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Speculative attack</h2>
<p>This all changed in mid-2014. A global recession and the fear of a hard landing by the Chinese economy shifted the peg from undervalued to overvalued. </p>
<p>In other words, the shadow price of the yuan was devalued. Because the PBOC kept the yuan peg relatively unchanged, the Chinese central bank had to start <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/19/china-is-working-hard-to-support-its-currency--it-sold-us-government-bonds-for-six-straight-months.html">selling foreign currency</a> to investors and companies that wanted to take their money out of the country. </p>
<p>Chinese reserves stood at about US$4 trillion in 2014, when capital started moving out of the country. This process accelerated in January 2015, a month after the US Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/17/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html">increased</a> its interest rate for the first time in almost a decade. Eventually, net outflows reached almost US$100 billion per month. </p>
<p>A slow burning speculative attack on the Chinese currency was underway. Faced with the assault, Chinese authorities had several options. </p>
<p>They could make capital controls tighter, impeding or even prohibiting different types of outflows; increase the interest rate to try to bring in more foreign capital; ride the crisis out, until its reserves were close to exhausted; or accede to the attack. </p>
<p>They chose the fourth option. </p>
<p>On two days in August 2015, the PBOC allowed the yuan to devalue by 3%, and it started a process of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/12/china-yuan-slips-again-after-devaluation">mini-devaluations</a> until there were no more incentives for net capital outflows. In doing this, China slowly brought the fixed yuan closer to its shadow price.</p>
<p>In 2016, after the equivalent of US$1 trillion was spent on thwarting the speculative attack and keeping the volatility of the yuan low, the Chinese economy stabilised. </p>
<p>The fears of a crisis were averted. Investors <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-20/china-ends-year-of-stabilization-on-high-note-as-consumers-spend">stopped sending</a> huge amounts of money abroad. Things came back to normal. </p>
<p>Capital outflows or inflows were minuscule, and confidence rebounded. Now, Chinese foreign holdings stand <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-surprise-china-foreign-exchange-reserves-vault-back-above-3-trillion-1488875417">at around $US3 trillion</a>. </p>
<h2>A new normal</h2>
<p>This is the new normal. </p>
<p>The yuan is much closer to a floating currency than ever. The main reason that the PBOC does not allow the currency <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-official-says-chinese-yuan-no-longer-undervalued-1432634534">to completely float</a> is to keep a hold on volatility. </p>
<p>In the new normal, China continues to manipulate its currency, but without real economic effects on the rest of the world. The yuan is still subject to PBOC’s control, but its value does not impact world exporters negatively. </p>
<p>In the past, the cheap yuan boosted Chinese exporters at the expense of the world’s. Today, its price is fair. And it should continue to be fair, as Chinese authorities have learnt the lesson of trying to artificially prop its currency. </p>
<p>This could be a big step towards full liberalisation of capital movement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80307/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodrigo Zeidan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China manipulates its currency, but without real economic effects on the rest of the world.Rodrigo Zeidan, Associate Professor, NYU Shanghai and Fundação Dom Cabral, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781052017-05-29T06:39:34Z2017-05-29T06:39:34ZTrans Pacific Partnership to forge ahead without the US – at least for now<p>Free trade used to be a rallying cry for mainstream North American politicians. Back in the 1980s, Canada’s then prime minister, Brian Mulroney, campaigned successfully on the idea that <a href="https://books.google.com.hk/books?id=0Ol3Otvbuw0C&pg=PA413&lpg=PA413&dq=Brian+Mulroney,+%E2%80%9Cjobs,+jobs,+jobs%22&source=bl&ots=ZYi1_XjTbC&sig=2vKgUegwm2sm7JMpjKSvuc4ioS0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiD_JfE14XUAhWLpo8KHU5zDS8Q6AEINDAD#v=onepage&q=Brian%20Mulroney%2C%20%E2%80%9Cjobs%2C%20jobs%2C%20jobs%22&f=false">trade agreements</a> would <a href="https://www.socialism.com/drupal-6.8/articles/dateline-canada-proof-positive-nafta-kills-jobs">create</a> “<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/brian-mulroney-campaigning-for-a-parliamentary-seat-in-central-nova">jobs, jobs, jobs</a>”. </p>
<p>Today, such a slogan could well be political suicide. Indeed, during last year’s US presidential campaign, the only common ground among <a href="https://berniesanders.com/press-release/sanders-the-only-candidate-who-fought-job-killing-trade-deals/">Bernie Sanders</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/hillary-clinton-abandons-obama-on-trade/409546/">Hillary Clinton</a> and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/11/tpps-death-wont-help-the-american-middle-class/507683/">Donald Trump</a> was their contempt for the “<a href="https://berniesanders.com/candidates-must-take-a-firm-stand-on-the-job-killing-tpp-deal/">job killing</a>” Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal among American and Asian countries.</p>
<p>And within a few days of reaching office, President Trump <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sanders-mccain-trump-trans-pacific-partnership-2017-1">pulled the US out of the agreement</a>. But it now seems that news of the deal’s demise was premature. </p>
<p>At least for now, the 11 other countries party to the agreement – Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam – are <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/39990686?ocid=global_bbccom_email_21052017_business">forging ahead</a>, even without the participation of the world’s largest economy.</p>
<h2>Understanding free trade</h2>
<p>Often lost in the fiery rhetoric about free trade agreements, such as the TPP, is their true economic benefit. Trade deals aren’t meant to be about jobs in this or that industry. They’re about raising a country’s overall productivity and prosperity.</p>
<p>In the short term, tariffs may seem beneficial as they allow less efficient homegrown companies to hire more and produce more. And, with free trade, <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/trade.htm">foreign competition dislodges local suppliers</a> and <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2015/june/how-international-trade-affects-the-us-labor-market">employment in certain industries falls</a>.</p>
<p>But what’s overlooked in these simple scenarios is the longer-term price of protectionism. While tariffs prop up some businesses, they <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2006548?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">limit the international flow of resources</a> to most others.</p>
<p>Free trade, on the other hand, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-0262.00467/full">bolsters productivity</a>. Once countries enter an agreement, resources naturally move around to the more efficient industries at home and abroad. </p>
<p>All countries tend to benefit from this shared increase in productivity – and, yes, from job creation in the long run.</p>
<p>Equally important, productivity usually rises for all countries in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/75/1/295/1629450/Market-Size-Trade-and-Productivity">direct proportion to the size of the common market</a>. The larger the scope of the trade agreement and the more countries involved, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp091906a">the better for everyone</a>. The reason is simple: an exporting industry now has access to many more markets, with the associated economies of scale reducing costs and increasing profits.</p>
<p>Without the US in the TPP, scale effects will certainly be much smaller. But the productivity effects of new markets remain attractive. Unless, that is, the US exit prompts TPP members to consider that agreement redundant because of the <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/tpp-vs-rcep-america-china-battle-control-pacific-trade-14021">Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</a> (RCEP). </p>
<p>This partnership was first conceived as a regional trade agreement to enhance economic ties <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-rcep-idUSKCN0S500220151011">between the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations</a> (ASEAN): Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia. It then expanded to include China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. And <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/china/global-times/20161123/281487865946077">China has strongly backed the RCEP</a> since the TPP was announced.</p>
<p>Over time, the agreement’s design evolved to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-rcep-idUSKCN0S500220151011">become an alternative</a> to the TPP, serving as a proxy for a political battle between the US and China. No more.</p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>Most TPP signatories are already part of the RCEP. That agreement comprises 16 countries and the TPP now has 11. Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru belong to the TPP but not the RCEP. China, India and South Korea are in the RCEP but not the TPP. Meanwhile, China and South Korea are <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/14/china-south-korea-join-tpp-members-in-trade-talks.html">having talks</a> with the other countries in the TPP.</p>
<p>For the Latin American countries, access to the Chinese and South Korean markets through the RCEP would be significant. After all, the US already has lower tariffs on average than emerging markets; Mexico and Canada are part of NAFTA; Chile has had an agreement with the US <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/chile-fta">since 2004</a>; and while Peru does not have an exclusive trade agreement with the US, it has had a promotion agreement to liberalise the services trade <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/peru-tpa">since 2009</a>. </p>
<p>Even with the US departure from the TPP, Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru are well positioned for US trade through other agreements.</p>
<p>For the Asian countries, losing privileged access to the American market is certainly a blow, since geographical proximity and other economic ties already give them access to the Chinese and South Korean markets.</p>
<p>The reason trade agreements are not more plentiful is because <a href="https://theconversation.com/redesigning-nafta-is-not-a-bad-idea-if-workers-rather-than-vested-interests-win-76861">vested interests usually fight</a> tooth and nail to maintain their privileged position in local markets. Local companies tend to play the nationalist card – we create jobs! – and advance only a myopic view to convince politicians to abandon free trade deals. </p>
<p>Importing industries are <a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/26285/1/559514182.PDF">less productive than exporting industries</a>. This is intuitive. If an importing industry were more efficient than the rest of the world, it would not be an importing industry in the first place.</p>
<h2>More than trade</h2>
<p>What is also lost in discussion is that the TPP is much more than a simple trade agreement. It also covers services and intellectual property. </p>
<p>While the US trade deficit in the first quarter of 2017 was approximately <a href="https://www.bea.gov/international/">US$65 billion a month</a>, the surplus in services offset a third of it. US exports in the service sector include <a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2017/trad0317.htm">over US$10 billion in royalties</a> on the use of American intellectual property. </p>
<p>The TPP would have been highly beneficial to the interests of the US software, publishing and financial firms. But to try to recapture the way of life of the 1950s, American politicians are forgetting about the industries of the 21st century. </p>
<p>At any rate, a zero trade deficit is a mirage in the case of the US. The country does not lose by importing more than it exports. It just means that it’s productive in other sectors. The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/trump-trade-friction-overlooks-america-s-huge-surplus-in-services">American financial sector is particularly strong</a> worldwide. </p>
<p>By withdrawing from the TPP, the US left a significant gap, as the total size of the trade agreement shrunk considerably. </p>
<p>The RCEP may fill it, or the countries may forge ahead without the US. It won’t be the same without the American market, but it should still bring enough benefits for the remaining countries to make it worthwhile to go through the trouble of enacting it.</p>
<p>While it may have been politically expedient, candidate – and now President – Trump was absolutely wrong when he said that “<a href="http://time.com/4386335/donald-trump-trade-speech-transcript/">trade reform</a> and the negotiation of great trade deals is the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country”. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.apec.org/Press/News-Releases/2017/0516_tran">Globalisation is inevitable</a> and irreversible, as Vietnam’s president recently mentioned. </p>
<p>Most economists agree that free trade generates wider and greater benefits, and that’s why the US used to be a big promoter of deals such as the TPP. </p>
<p>The current US flip-flop is bad for the World Trade Organisation, which is likely to <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news17_e/anti_10may17_e.htm">see more anti-dumping cases</a> (a dispute when <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/19-adp_01_e.htm">a country accuses another</a> of exporting goods at less than their normal value) by and against the US; for multilateral agreements, such as the TPP; and for the world, as protectionist talk increases the probability of trade wars.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodrigo Zeidan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The TPP should still bring enough benefits for the remaining countries to make it worthwhile to go through the trouble of enacting it.Rodrigo Zeidan, Associate Professor, NYU Shanghai and Fundação Dom Cabral, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/738622017-05-15T06:40:20Z2017-05-15T06:40:20ZTwo Swedish economists foresaw the backlash against globalisation – here’s how to mitigate it<p><strong><em>The first article in our series <a href="https://theconversation.com/global/topics/globalisation-under-pressure-38722">Globalisation Under Pressure</a> looks at work from the 1930s that anticipated the backlash against globalisation.</em></strong></p>
<hr>
<p>Economists <a href="http://policonomics.com/eli-heckscher/">Eli Heckscher</a> (1879-1952) and <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1977/ohlin-bio.html">Bertil Ohlin</a> (1899-1979) died more than three decades ago. But it’s fair to assume that neither would have been surprised by the underlying causes of <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-wins-us-election-scholars-from-around-the-world-react-68282">Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States</a>, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-is-on-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-experts-respond-61576">Brexit</a> for that matter. </p>
<p>Their <a href="http://internationalecon.com/Trade/Tch60/T60-0.php">Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) model of international trade</a> – developed at the Stockholm School of Economics in the 1930s – clearly predicted today’s middle-class discontent bellowing at the ballot box. </p>
<p>The two Swedes recognised the simple but too-often-overlooked soft underbelly of global trade and growth: prosperity doesn’t distribute evenly. And workers in bustling export industries benefit at the expense of those who face foreign competition.</p>
<h2>Inherent inequality</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169269/original/file-20170515-3675-5f45fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169269/original/file-20170515-3675-5f45fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169269/original/file-20170515-3675-5f45fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169269/original/file-20170515-3675-5f45fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169269/original/file-20170515-3675-5f45fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1017&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169269/original/file-20170515-3675-5f45fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1017&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169269/original/file-20170515-3675-5f45fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1017&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eli Heckscher’s work predicted today’s middle-class discontent bellowing at the ballot box.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AEli_Heckscher.jpg">Slarre via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Building on the H-O model, academic economist <a href="https://www.gc.cuny.edu/stonecenter/Branko-Milanovic">Branko Milanovic</a> has described in an elegant chart how income around the world changed from 1988 to 2008. Only one income bracket failed to get significantly richer: those around the 80% percentile. That’s the middle class in the developed world and the upper class in poor countries. </p>
<p>Ironically, Milanovic’s graphic both resembles and reflects the proverbial elephant in the room that carried Trump to victory in regions such as the US Rust Belt, which are populated by those he <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/kass/ct-donald-trump-inauguration-kass-0122-20170120-column.html">characterised as forgotten Americans</a>. </p>
<p>It supports Heckscher and Ohlin’s fundamental premise about the unequal consequences of economic growth – rare is the tide that lifts all boats. Milanovic demonstrates the disparities of our era of globalisation: the rich get richer, the poor get much less poor, and a big chunk of the middle class gets left behind. </p>
<p>The argument is relatively easy to understand. Assume that in a country there are only two industries, divided into high-skilled and low-skilled workers who produce high-tech content (product H) and low-tech content (product L). </p>
<p>Country A (say the United States) has proportionally more high-skilled individuals than country B (let’s call it China). Let’s further assume that both the Chinese and Americans have similar tastes for products. That’s a lot of assumptions, but the intuition should be straightforward: countries with a higher proportion of more educated workers have an advantage in producing more technologically advanced goods. It’s as simple as that. </p>
<p>In the absence of trade, the United States would produce more goods and services that use high-skilled workers than China. A simple demand and supply graph illustrates this: </p>
<p>Without trade, the United States produces more high-tech goods and consumers pay a lower relative price for them than in China. But here is the important point: in the US, the wages of high-skilled workers are lower than in China. Not lower in absolute but in relative terms. </p>
<p>Great programmers in the US are handsomely rewarded because the country can export the goods and services they produce. If Apple, Uber or Facebook could sell and operate only in the US, the demand for high-skill workers would be much lower than it is today, and the country’s lower-skilled labor force would not face such strong competition from abroad. </p>
<p>With trade, low-tech goods become relatively cheaper in the US. But, critically, people who work in low-tech industries there face the prospect of lower wages, even if the overall price of goods and services in the economy falls, because there is less demand for their jobs. Trade increases job growth in the US economy, but <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.704.6665&rep=rep1&type=pdf">in some industries there are job losses</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169273/original/file-20170515-3672-1ry4jsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169273/original/file-20170515-3672-1ry4jsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169273/original/file-20170515-3672-1ry4jsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169273/original/file-20170515-3672-1ry4jsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=862&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169273/original/file-20170515-3672-1ry4jsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1083&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169273/original/file-20170515-3672-1ry4jsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1083&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169273/original/file-20170515-3672-1ry4jsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1083&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bertil Ohlin was Eli Heckscher’s student and collaborator.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Bertil_Ohlin.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The argument is relatively easy to understand. Countries with a higher proportion of more educated workers have an advantage in producing more technologically advanced goods.</p>
<h2>Mitigating harm</h2>
<p>There’s plenty of other evidence that trade has an impact on income inequality. <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2233969?seq=1#fndtn-page_scan_tab_contents">Reviews from 1990</a> and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1573440405800061">1995 describe the old evidence</a> on the relationship between trade and inequality; there’s a 2003 exploration of the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387803001172">link between opening up to trade and inequality</a> in Argentina; and a <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6880972.pdf">review of cross-country studies</a> with data from the 1990s and early 2000s. </p>
<p>More recently, <a href="http://www.ide.go.jp/Japanese/Publish/Download/Report/2015/pdf/B110_ch01.pdf">a 2015 update of the H-O model</a> has extended the empirical evidence to show how trade increases the technology level in all partners and a <a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/69344/1/733994415.pdf">2012 paper has examined</a> urban wage distribution in China. </p>
<p>But all the empirical evidence on the importance of trade to income distribution <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Farzana_Munshi2/publication/259556838_Globalisation_and_Inter-occupational_Inequality_Empirical_Evidence_from_OECD_Countries/links/5658557608ae1ef9297dab5b.pdf">comes to fruition in a 2014 paper</a> that finds clear evidence that openness to trade increases wage inequality at lower levels of income (within the OECD). It also found there was no significant effect at higher levels of income. </p>
<p>The H-O model sharpens focus on the realities of our modern world. Inflation has been strikingly absent in the rich world during the 21st century due largely to the growth and efficiency of international trade. This has made products cheaper for the average American but, at the same time, globalisation has significantly spurred income inequality. </p>
<p>The model provides a direct link between the Chinese internal migrant working long hours in a Shenzhen factory and the Silicon Valley employee enjoying an elitist’s workday, replete with healthy snacks.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.nathaninc.com/sites/default/files/Developing_Country_Labor_Market_Adjustment.pdf">economists had mistakenly expected</a> Heckscher and Ohlin’s canon to become less relevant, but that’s changing. </p>
<p>Recent work from MIT has provided <a href="http://www.ddorn.net/papers/Autor-Dorn-Hanson-ChinaShock.pdf">the first and timely systematic evidence</a> that the inequality effects of the H-O framework are much more profound and longer lasting than previously thought. </p>
<p>The fact is that <a href="https://economics.mit.edu/files/12751">too few people acquire better skills</a> as quickly as needed; <a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/106917/1/812609026.pdf">too few disenfranchised families relocate</a> to more promising regions; <a href="http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/CognitiveSkills_2014/quintini_g3259.pdf">and the combination</a> of decaying skills and lack of mobility generates a downward spiral of discontent. </p>
<p>But all is not lost. <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Open-Skies-Published.pdf">Trade lifts all countries</a> and contributes to improvement in productivity and the range of products at our disposal, and engenders myriad innovations that make modern life easier. Increased trade has <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100860000">even helped improve human rights</a> and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/smj.2307/full">made companies more socially responsible</a>. </p>
<p>And we have <a href="http://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=economicscsier_wp">known the optimal policy regarding trade agreements</a> for a long time but failed to implement it effectively. Free trade has a necessarily distributive effect. And the correct path is to have trade agreements with specific programs to diminish its negative impact on certain levels of income. </p>
<p>In NAFTA, for instance, the Transitional Adjustment Assistance (<a href="https://www.doleta.gov/programs/factsht/nafta.cfm">NAFTA-TAA</a>) program had as its primary goal to assist workers who lost their jobs or whose hours of work and wages were reduced as a result of trade with – or a shift in production to – Canada or Mexico. </p>
<p>We should concentrate on designing programs complementary to trade agreements, such as the TAA, especially as we now know some of the distributive effects of free trade <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199615001543">don’t dissipate easily as previously thought</a>. </p>
<p>Ignoring Heckscher and Ohlin’s prescient wisdom has cost many people their livelihoods. The best path for society is to increase trade agreements but only if accompanied by fail-safes for the segments of society most likely to be adversely affected. </p>
<p>Policymakers and researchers forgot this for too long and we are now facing the backlash.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73862/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodrigo Zeidan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A fundamental insight into the distributive effects of free trade from almost 90 years ago.Rodrigo Zeidan, Associate Professor, NYU Shanghai and Fundação Dom Cabral, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/768612017-05-01T06:50:22Z2017-05-01T06:50:22ZRedesigning NAFTA is not a bad idea if workers rather than vested interests win<p>Late April saw an odd few days for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the 23-year-old deal between the United States, Canada and Mexico. </p>
<p>At the start of Thursday April 27, President Donald Trump’s advisers were said to be working on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/us/politics/trump-says-he-will-renegotiate-nafta-or-terminate-it.html?emc=edit_mbae_20170427&nl=&nlid=64524812&te=1">an executive order withdrawing from the trade deal</a>. During his election campaign, he had blamed NAFTA for American job losses, calling it the “<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/15/news/economy/trump-what-is-nafta/">worst trade deal in history</a>”. </p>
<p>But, by the next morning, having spoken to the presidents of other signatory countries, Trump announced that he would merely be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/us/politics/trump-says-he-will-renegotiate-nafta-or-terminate-it.html?emc=edit_mbae_20170427&nl=&nlid=64524812&te=1">seeking a renegotiation of the deal</a> – with the caveat that he would pull the US out of the deal if that effort wasn’t satisfactory. </p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>Trade agreements benefit everybody but have two distinct classes of losers: inefficient companies from industries that compete with imports, and some of the workers in those industries. </p>
<p>In the past, economists and politicians didn’t pay very much attention to the losers of international trade. The rationale was as follows: companies that went under were relatively inefficient, and eventually the laid-off workers would retool, migrate or adjust. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167351/original/file-20170501-8912-798w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167351/original/file-20170501-8912-798w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167351/original/file-20170501-8912-798w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167351/original/file-20170501-8912-798w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167351/original/file-20170501-8912-798w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167351/original/file-20170501-8912-798w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167351/original/file-20170501-8912-798w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Recent research demonstrates that local unemployment is much more persistent than previously thought.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ckrahe/8062535631/in/photolist-dhsAX2-9k51LG-mEgZc2-m4t57u-49FTQQ-nTkBUX-ScELtc-q7EuN7-pRHDDF-SqLqzS-Rmwiof-q4eKJ6-6aZ9n-kXsb58-CeFNrq-mbc1LF-mgn8Uv-jBkXaH-oXiptK-Suregp-7eZ3p5-6K4ZT-qhjqkL-7eWA8r-RUsJA5-pw5Uxq-kZjPMD-nQR7K3-RN1Vob-miP44o-T3gf8V-Gqv17w-hsdnj8-PEwzs-m4s5Pc-BFMeA7-meeVAC-p2aZg4-jo31zo-8eCR45-kXqx1a-7wgw4P-jDccg2-QPwXaN-oZ65dm-qvHMfQ-qvoRuZ-pBMYXN-psVLQi-oDTmFW">Chris Kahe/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In other words, in the short term there might be losers, but the overall economy would get stronger. It was assumed that no one would be left behind after an adjustment period. </p>
<p>Economists were almost correct. Free trade created better economies, but the deleterious effects of trade on workers did not dissipate relatively easily. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906.pdf">Recent research</a> demonstrates that <a href="https://seii.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Autor-Dorn-Hanson-The-China-Syndrome-Local-Labor-Market-Effects-of-Import-Competition-in-the-United-States-American-Economic-Revi.pdf">local unemployment is much more persistent</a> than previously thought. Even decades later, some displaced workers cannot find equivalent jobs. </p>
<p>Hence, it may well be time to renegotiate some clauses in trade agreements, without lowering the benefits to society.</p>
<p>In addition to the displacement issue, the perception of trade deals as static agreements that once enacted change little is erroneous. NAFTA, which lowered trade barriers between the United States, Mexico and Canada, is already an evolving deal. </p>
<h2>Inherent flexibility</h2>
<p>In 2009, the Mexican government <a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2010/august/statement-ambassador-ron-kirk-regarding-announcemen">applied a first round of tariffs on 89 US products</a>. In every deal, countries retain some power to tinker with tariffs and other trade barriers to temporarily protect industries while they adjust to more intense international competition. </p>
<p>Another example, from 2016, comes from the joint efforts of the <a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2016/april/north-american-governments-call-effective-immediate-commitments-address-global-excess-steel-capacity">US, Canada and Mexico</a> to curb the global glut in steel production, out of concern about its effects on domestic producers.</p>
<p>That is just as well. Knowledge advances: we know much more about the impacts of trade deals today than when NAFTA was put into effect on January 1 1994. Unfortunately, the previous changes to NAFTA did not truly address the deleterious effects of this otherwise beneficial trade agreement. </p>
<p>Trade deals are created because countries realise that the diffuse benefits for society outweigh the interests of those who lose from free trade. In the past, <a href="http://netclass.csu.edu.cn/jpkc2011/CSU/WTO%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%88%E5%8F%8C%E8%AF%AD%EF%BC%89/WebEditor/uploadfile/20110411200509466.pdf">the majority of complaints about free trade</a> came not from workers, but from the few companies that lost the most. These are the kind of vested interests that make international agreements much harder to negotiate. </p>
<p>The political difficulty of confronting such interests has been known since the dawn of economics as a discipline. In 1776, the forefather of economics, Adam Smith, criticised local <a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/smith-adam/works/wealth-of-nations/book01/ch11c-3.htm">companies that wanted to impede international trade</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always in the interest of the dealers … The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order, ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The right focus</h2>
<p>There’s ample space to renegotiate some terms from the original agreement that would improve social welfare across the region. But the proposed changes, such as the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/24/us-to-impose-20-pct-duties-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-ross.html">new tariffs imposed by the US government</a> on Canadian soft lumber, focus on inefficient companies instead of affected workers.</p>
<p>What we are seeing is protectionism – barriers to imports to protect specific national industries – rearing its ugly head.</p>
<p>The US, Mexico and Canada all want barriers to protect some of their industries; <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-u-s-mexico-canada-want-from-nafta-talks-1493332183">US officials want to require</a> rules of origin, in which most of a product would have to be made in North America to be traded duty-free. </p>
<p>Mexico would like new rules to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-u-s-mexico-canada-want-from-nafta-talks-1493332183">defend its car industry</a> against Asian auto makers and part makers. Canada is looking to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-u-s-mexico-canada-want-from-nafta-talks-1493332183">defend its domestic dairy industry</a> while maintaining dispute-resolution mechanisms that allow its government and companies to defend against actions <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-u-s-mexico-canada-want-from-nafta-talks-1493332183">by the US and Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>Renegotiation isolated to vested interests renegotiation is not confined <a href="https://www.rt.com/business/386313-trump-nafta-canada-mexico/">to NAFTA</a>. The Trump administration’s intention is to “renegotiate or terminate” <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8ad8f420-2bc8-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7">the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement</a> by protecting certain American industries, while simultaneously launching an investigation into <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-order-study-abuses-u-010000180.html">abuses of US trade agreements</a>.</p>
<p>The path forward is not to protect inefficient industries that have political clout; the focus should be on workers. And, for this, mechanisms already exist. </p>
<h2>Transitional adjustment</h2>
<p>As a result of the negative short-run effects of trade agreements, NAFTA and other free trade deals have some measure of transitional adjustment assistance (TAA). TAA <a href="https://www.doleta.gov/tradeact/factsheet.cfm">is supposed to provide a path for employment</a> growth and opportunity to aid workers who have lost their jobs as a result of foreign trade. </p>
<p>In the case of the impact of NAFTA on the United States, by 2010, the American government had <a href="https://www.doleta.gov/tradeact/factsheet.cfm">dispersed approximately US$1 billion</a> through NAFTA’s TAA, benefiting roughly 250,000 workers.</p>
<p>The problem is that every TAA is comparatively underfunded when compared to the long-term impacts of trade on employment because those impacts are often vastly underestimated. The best-case scenario for a trade policy is for commerce to be as free as possible, while maintaining some measure of support for displaced workers. </p>
<p>Protectionism, on the other hand, is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/01/24/sure-protectionism-can-save-jobs-but-whats-the-cost-per-job-saved/#1785afaf2ee9">extremely costly</a>. </p>
<p>Take the example of the luggage industry: in the early 1990s the United States had significant tariffs on imported luggage. American society <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1993/11/12/business/the-high-price-of-protectionism.html?pagewanted=all">lost more than US$1 billion</a> because of it – and all of it was to protect roughly 1,000 jobs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167349/original/file-20170501-8903-1rcc9in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167349/original/file-20170501-8903-1rcc9in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167349/original/file-20170501-8903-1rcc9in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167349/original/file-20170501-8903-1rcc9in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167349/original/file-20170501-8903-1rcc9in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167349/original/file-20170501-8903-1rcc9in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167349/original/file-20170501-8903-1rcc9in.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the early 1990s, the United States had significant tariffs on imported luggage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/udim/114353214/in/photolist-b76e9-5KWA4u-cv9dfq-rdZ8Ph-9C9ZmE-4F9JSG-nNYQxY-2FXAsm-5Q7M9U-sRSZK-6WuaTj-3zHBy-5Sn3n6-42962B-QZRVPd-9aibv7-pWiqbj-9tPCWy-5sF3bN-a7Yz1i-ajJMM1-6WUaY4-2goRbp-4R1xBu-42dehm-wUH7m-2gthY9-omb9cs-54G7uB-NtrjR-7weQDc-adXVXQ-9gADAC-5vL2j6-RyyhLt-5v9Rb8-6XnMTy-935gst-eoXj7B-6RtpVL-2WXcdH-6C7Waf-96oAg-p67yu6-8CJrd-qnDGLp-83pscf-WnNNG-7AxMSQ-8U1LH6">udim/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In effect, each job cost American consumers <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1993/11/12/business/the-high-price-of-protectionism.html?pagewanted=all">over US$1 million</a>, which in current terms is more than twice that amount.</p>
<p>Instead of protecting the dairy industry in Canada, the car companies in Mexico, or manufacturing firms in the US, these countries should design improved transitional adjustment assistance programs, targeted at the disfranchised, with support for workers to adjust to the 21st-century labour market. </p>
<p>TAAs should be funded adequately; technology may be a bigger driver of displacement than trade, but we should still fund TAAs regardless of the initiator of long-term unemployment. </p>
<p>Let trade be free, help the people, and forget about the vested interests of inefficient companies that cry for the return of “Made in America” – or Mexico, or anywhere really. </p>
<p>That’s the best way forward. The world is much better because of globalisation, and protectionism will make everything worse. But it’s time that we start caring about the workers left behind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76861/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodrigo Zeidan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s ample space to renegotiate some terms from the original agreement that would improve social welfare across the region.Rodrigo Zeidan, Associate Professor, NYU Shanghai and Fundação Dom Cabral, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/685922017-01-27T07:33:52Z2017-01-27T07:33:52ZPity China’s ‘bare branches’: unmarried men stuck between tradition and capitalism<p>Chinese New Year, or the Spring Festival, is a highlight in Chinese society. But for many young people, the joy of vacation and family reunion is mixed with questions from parents and relatives about their achievements in the past year, including about their relationships. </p>
<p>This is a particularly stressful occasion for single men who – unless they choose to <a href="http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/families/article/2065400/lunar-new-year-spike-price-chinas-fake-boyfriends-and-girlfriends">rent a fake partner</a> or have a stroke of luck at the <a href="http://news.cntv.cn/2015/02/07/VIDE1423320475955908.shtml">local marriage “market”</a> - are forced to face the miserable fate of singlehood. </p>
<p>These <a href="http://www.belfercenter.org/publication/bare-branches-security-implications-asias-surplus-male-population">involuntary bachelors, who fail to add fruit to their family tree</a> are often referred to as “bare branches”, or <em>guanggun</em>. And the <a href="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2016-03/07/content_23769165.htm">Chinese state has recently started to worry</a> about the dire demographic trend posed by the growing number of bare branches. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/6rp/indexch.htm">2010 national census data</a> suggests that 24.7% Chinese men above the age of 15 have never been married, while 18.5% of women in the same age group remain unwed. </p>
<p>The disparity in marital status between the sexes is particularly large in younger age groups. According to the same data source, 82.44% of Chinese men between 20 and 29 years of age have never been married, which is 15% more than women of the same age. The gap is approximately 6% among those in their 30s and less than 4% for those in their 40s or older. </p>
<h2>Hiding in plain sight?</h2>
<p>China’s surplus of men is attributed, at least in part, to the family planning policy implemented in the country since 1979. The One Child Policy, coupled with the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22319769/">patriarchal tradition of son preference</a>, has led many families to give up on their daughters. This has happened through <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7828766/">gender-selective abortion</a>, infanticide or by <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1881324/pdf/bmj00063-0009.pdf">giving away girl children</a>. </p>
<p>The bitter fruit of the preference for sons is a <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6042/581">female deficit of 20 million people</a> in the coming decades for men of marrying age. </p>
<p>But there is an argument that the sex birth ratio might not be as skewed as all that. It points out that many of the “missing” girls were <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4302763/">unregistered at birth in official records</a>. By examining multiple waves of census data, for example, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/china-quarterly/article/delayed-registration-and-identifying-the-missing-girls-in-china/0759987A48A37E3D2CFE157778747E33/core-reader">researchers</a> have found that millions of “hidden girls” turned up in later statistics. </p>
<p>That being said, the extreme 118:100 sex birth ratio still points to huge pools of bachelors in China in the decades to come. </p>
<p>What alarms the state is not the singleton status of these men, but their socioeconomic characteristics. China’s wealth is <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Poverty%20documents/Inequality-In-Focus-0813.pdf">unequally distributed across the population</a>, with particularly huge income gaps between urban and rural populations. </p>
<p>As in most countries, men are expected to be the head and main provider for the family, and women are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3992877/">allowed and encouraged to “marry up” to males with resources</a>. Caught between the patriarchal tradition and the widening social gap, Chinese men on the lower end of the socioeconomic ladder have a particularly hard time attracting brides. </p>
<p>The “marriage squeeze” would not be so devastating for these bachelors had the Chinese government been thorough and persistent with its gender equality policy. <a href="http://e-chaupak.net/database/chicon/1954/1954bilingual.htm">Gender equality has been written in the constitution since 1954</a> and has been proudly promoted by the socialist state. </p>
<p>New generations of Chinese women, <a href="http://english.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2015/09/22/content_281475195668448.htm">who now make up 45% of the country’s workforce</a> and are almost on par with their male compatriots in education enrolments, no longer need to be financially dependent on future husbands. They have the potential to shake rigid gender roles that require men to shoulder the economic burden alone. </p>
<p>But the translation from educational attainment to earning power and equal status is not at all straightforward. The labour market in China has <a href="http://www.clb.org.hk/content/workplace-discrimination#gender">become increasingly hostile towards women in recent years</a> and <a href="http://www.un.org.cn/uploads/kindeditor/file/20160311/20160311114613_1571.pdf">the gender gap in employment rate and income have expanded</a>. </p>
<p>Many young women – especially those without promising career prospects – are looking again to marriage as their once-in-a-lifetime chance for upward social mobility. This is reflected in the <a href="http://en.people.cn/90882/8177007.html">increasing dating costs</a> and <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1081602X.2011.640544">rocketing “bride wealth”</a> that women request from their male partners, which further disadvantage impoverished men. </p>
<p>Young men – economically disadvantaged and sexually frustrated – might eventually vent their anger through violence against others, thereby threatening public security and social stability. At least, that’s what the Chinese government fears. </p>
<p>The conviction is not ungrounded. Social scientists argue that long-term bachelorhood not only <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534714000251">compromises men’s well-being</a>, but also puts hormone-fuelled, underprivileged men at <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/103/36/13271.full">risk of gravitating towards aggression</a>, as already <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1138110/deadly-demographics-women-face-grim-odds-male-heavy-societies-china-india">observed in historical China and contemporary India</a>. </p>
<h2>Easy targets</h2>
<p>Social gaps are so difficult to close that the Chinese authorities are firing at the easier target: women. </p>
<p>Over the years, the Chinese state has tolerated <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/02/25/chinas-feminists-stand-up-against-misogynistic-tv-gala/?utm_term=.281590c6a307">sexist representations of women in high-profile media outlets</a>, put derogatory labels on unmarried women by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/opinion/global/chinas-leftover-women.html">calling them “leftover”</a> and describing them as <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/25/asia/china-state-media-xinhua-attacks-tsai-ing-wen-single-sexism/">“emotional” and “extreme”</a>, and
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/24/chinese-women-equality-laws-land-housing">curtailed women’s rights after divorce</a>.</p>
<p>But little is discussed in official channels about abandoned girls, domestic and international human trafficking, and supporting women in workplaces. </p>
<p>Of course, not all “bare branches” are disadvantaged because of socioeconomic reasons. <a href="http://www.asia-pacific.undp.org/content/dam/rbap/docs/Research%20&%20Publications/hiv_aids/rbap-hhd-2014-blia-china-country-report.pdf">Homosexuality was formally decriminalised</a> in China as recently as 1997 and removed from the list of mental illness in 2001. </p>
<p>Still excluded from the institution of marriage or any civil union, many Chinese gay men either have to stay legally single or form a sham union - <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/04/for-gay-chinese-getting-married-means-getting-creative/274895/">often with lesbians who have the same problem</a>. But some <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2016-04/22/content_24759830.htm">choose to or have had to marry straight women</a>, causing tremendous distress to both parties.</p>
<p>No longer wanting to spend their lives alone or to deceive innocent straight women, Chinese gay men are starting on the long, hard fight for marriage equality. Victory is still a long way away; China abstained from voting on the <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Discrimination/Pages/LGBTUNResolutions.aspx">UN resolution on the rights of LGBT people in 2011</a>. And in June 2016, a Chinese court <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/13/china-court-refuse-gay-marriage-landmark-case">dismissed a gay couple’s lawsuit</a> for their right to marriage. </p>
<p>Despite the conservative stance of the government and the dominating power of capital, there are signs of progress. In a <a href="https://wj.qq.com/article/single-66.html">recent survey on relationship values conducted by Tencent.com,</a> – one of the leading internet companies in China – both male and female respondents listed “individual space” (32.8%) and “real connections” (24.6%) as their top requirements for starting a marriage. Only 9.3% males and 16.6% females put “house and car” as a requirement, suggesting a rejection of the purely materialistic model of marriage. </p>
<p>Similarly, in <a href="https://journalofchinesesociology.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40711-016-0034-1">study on dating attitudes and expectations among Chinese college students</a>, both sexes put “kind”, “loving”, “considerate” as the most desirable qualities in a romantic partner. </p>
<p>If they play nice and work with women to push for gender equality, perhaps there’s hope for the bare branches yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xuan Li does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Involuntary bachelors, who fail to add fruit to their family tree are often referred to as “bare branches”. And the Chinese state has recently started to worry about them.Xuan Li, Assistant Professor of Psychology, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/660272016-10-11T06:45:04Z2016-10-11T06:45:04ZChina’s marriage rate is plummeting – and it’s because of gender inequality<p>One of the greatest fears of Chinese parents is coming true: China’s young people are turning away from marriage. The trend is also worrying the government.</p>
<p>After a whole decade of increases in the national marriage rate, China witnessed its second year of decline in <a href="http://www.mca.gov.cn/article/sj/tjgb/201607/20160700001136.shtml">the number of newly registered unions in 2015</a>, with a <a href="http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=C01">6.3% drop from 2014 and 9.1% from 2013</a>. This was accompanied by a rise in the age of marriage, which <a href="http://www.echinacities.com/news/Love-and-Marriage-in-Modern-China-Survey-Reveals-Latest-Trends">has increased by about a year and a half</a> in the first ten years of this century.</p>
<p>The decline and delay of marriage in China is part of a global trend. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/23/144-years-of-marriage-and-divorce-in-the-united-states-in-one-chart/">United States</a>, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/els/family/SF_3_1_Marriage_and_divorce_rates.pdf">most OECD nations</a>, and <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21526350">Japan</a>, have all undergone a similar process in recent years, as have other major Chinese societies. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_at_first_marriage">Hong Kong and Taiwan</a>, for instance, both have much higher ages of first marriage than mainland China. </p>
<p>But in a culture that puts great value on family, parents are alarmed by even the tiniest likelihood that their offspring will remain unmarried and childless. They fear the breaking of family lineage, or that there will be no one to look after their unmarried children when they’re gone. </p>
<h2>Causing worry</h2>
<p>While the traditional practice of arranged marriage has been <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/english/2000/Nov/4419.htm">illegal in China since the 1950s</a>, parents <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/02/11/new-study-casts-skeptical-eye-on-parental-matchmaking-in-china/">remain heavily involved</a> in their children’s marital decisions. Many Chinese parents relentlessly try to persuade their children to enter wedlock through <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-01/25/content_23238821.htm">much-dreaded interrogations during festive family gatherings</a>. </p>
<p>Some go to “<a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/chinas-marriage-market/">matchmaking corners</a>” where parents gather to exchange information about their single children and arrange blind dates - often without the knowledge of or against the will of children themselves. </p>
<p>The Chinese government hasn’t sat idly by either. In 2007, the Ministry of Education publicly shamed women who were 27 years or older as <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21320560">“leftover women”</a>, urging them to lower “unrealistic” standards during their search for a partner. While still alive and well in the public discourse to refer to both genders, the term “leftover” has been criticised <a href="http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/chinas-leftovers-are-rejects-in-a-mans-world">by scholars</a> and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/18/world/asia/on-china-single-women-leta-hong-fincher/">resisted by young women</a>.</p>
<p>In 2016, the government <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/964661.shtml">cancelled the extra seven-day honeymoon leave</a> that had been granted to couples who married “late” (older than 25 years for men, and 23 years for women). The hope was that this would spur young people to marry (and eventually, bear children) as soon as possible. </p>
<p>The state is especially worried about the <a href="http://en.people.cn/90882/8177007.html">millions of surplus men</a> in China, who were born after the 1970s <a href="http://www.china.com.cn/chinese/zhuanti/250870.htm">as a result of gender-selective abortion</a> and are now looking for brides.</p>
<p>The number of these “leftover” men varies depending on the age group, and whether one talks about the current situation or the future. According to state media, it may be <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-01/20/content_23167904_2.htm">24 million</a> or <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/870492.shtml">33 million</a>.</p>
<p>Typically rural and impoverished, these unwed men – upset “bare branches” who are not able to add offshoots to their family tree – are <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1138110/deadly-demographics-women-face-grim-odds-male-heavy-societies-china-india">considered a threat</a> to social stability because of the financial, social and sexual frustration they face. </p>
<p><a href="http://en.people.cn/n/2015/1001/c90882-8957640.html">People’s Daily</a> recently stressed that “leftover” men constitute a more pressing crisis than women in a similar situation, quoting a survey on unmarried rural men that found some of them engage in criminal activities such as gambling, prostitution, and human trafficking. </p>
<h2>A different path</h2>
<p>But young people follow their own mind. And while romance and coupledom are much endorsed by both men and women in their 20s and 30s, marriage as a legal institution is no longer a must. </p>
<p>Growing up with more diverse values than previous generations, Chinese youth born in the 1980s and 1990s see options beyond the linear life path leading up to the baby carriage. Many <a href="http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/article/1636650/pressure-young-mainlanders-marry">prioritise work over partnership</a> - either willingly or with reluctance. </p>
<p>Government statistics also suggest that more than <a href="http://www.clb.org.hk/content/migrant-workers-and-their-children">85% of both male and female migrant workers</a> – a third of whom are at marrying age – work more than 44 hours a week, which leaves them little time and energy to build relationships. </p>
<p>Others are simply exploring alternative lifestyles – with or without a romantic partner. Cohabitation is increasingly commonplace. And thanks to affordable technology, casual sex is also easier to access than ever. </p>
<p>Then, there’s the sea of books, films and television series that portray other ways to live. For young, professional Chinese urbanites who have access to modern entertainment, a cool, an enriched life can well be spouse-free. </p>
<h2>Gender disparity</h2>
<p>Young Chinese women are particularly vocal about the institution of marriage. An advertisement by cosmetic company SK-II, showing young women voicing their protest against parental and social pressure, for instance, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35994366">went viral in China</a>.</p>
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<p>It’s not that single women are uninterested in having a love life – many are actually keen to get married – but too much is at stake. In a country where <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-gender-gap-report-2015/tracking-the-gender-gap-over-time/">gender equality has been stalling</a>, if not deteriorating, over the past decade, women <a href="https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/features/no-women-need-apply">face enduring discrimination</a> in education and the workplace. </p>
<p>The Chinese government <a href="http://china.org.cn/china/third_plenary_session/2013-11/15/content_30615243.htm">relaxed its one-child policy in October 2015</a>, allowing all couples to have a second child. But the state didn’t take account of the change in welfare policies for families or employers. So <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-05/09/content_25144103.htm">the majority of career women said no</a> to the offer out of fear of being further devalued on the job market. </p>
<p>Unlike their counterparts in the developed world, Chinese women <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/world/asia/08iht-letter08.html">receive no effective protection from the law</a> in case their marriage dissolves. Knowing that bleak career prospects and a non-existent safety net await them, these women have every reason not to trade their career or personal freedom for a wedding. </p>
<p>Empowered urban Chinese women have a tough choice to make between intimacy and autonomy - but at least they still have a choice. Behind them are their rural sisters, who have much less control over their own fates. </p>
<p>Deprived of educational and social resources by patriarchal tradition and a capitalist economy, rural women have <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/5086754.stm">little bargaining power</a> compared to their urban counterparts against unwanted marriages, <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/141286.htm">inequality between spouses</a>, or <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/935613.shtml">even violence</a> within or for the sake of marriage. </p>
<p>Chinese state media are certainly aware of marriage decline as a potential social problem, although most of their sympathetic attention has been <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/970102.shtml">channelled towards bachelors</a> who cannot exercise their “right” to acquire a wife. Their <a href="http://en.people.cn/102774/8177014.html">struggles</a> are <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/870492.shtml">vividly depicted</a>, and are often attributed to <a href="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-02/25/content_23645867.htm">women’s rising demands</a> for bride wealth (money that the groom’s family pays the bride’s family); the rise in economic disparity; and sometimes<a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2014-05/05/content_17483217.htm">to the nation’s skewed gender ratio</a>. </p>
<p>Poverty relief programs or allowing women to have more than one husband (<a href="http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/china-polyandry-gender-ratio-bachelors/">polyandry</a>) have been suggested as possible solutions to their difficulties.</p>
<p>But there’s no discussion of what could be done for the urban women who might face the glass ceiling at work, or for rural ones who are <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-women2jan02-story.html">married but suffering</a> as the result of patriarchal traditions. </p>
<p>A better way to enhance the lure of marriage could start with the underprivileged in Chinese society. That means giving the decision to marry or not back to young people; promoting family-friendly workplace policies; and finally, securing women’s rights.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xuan Li does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chinese parents and the state are concerned about the declining marriage rate in the country. But the focus on single men ignores the root of the problem.Xuan Li, Assistant Professor of Psychology, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.