tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/sweet-briar-college-5262/articlesSweet Briar College2023-10-04T12:34:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822692023-10-04T12:34:15Z2023-10-04T12:34:15ZThe Green Revolution is a warning, not a blueprint for feeding a hungry planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551417/original/file-20231002-15-em8fkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5310%2C3540&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A farmer spreads fertilizer in a wheat field outside Amritsar, India.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-spreads-fertiliser-in-a-wheat-field-amid-foggy-news-photo/1231155968">Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Feeding a growing world population has been a serious concern for decades, but today there are new causes for alarm. Floods, heat waves and other weather extremes are making agriculture increasingly precarious, especially in the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/what-is-global-south-19fa68cf8c60061e88d69f6f2270d98b">Global South</a>. </p>
<p>The war in Ukraine is also a factor. Russia is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-russia-pulled-out-of-its-grain-deal-with-ukraine-and-what-that-means-for-the-global-food-system-210046">blockading Ukrainian grain exports</a>, and <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-ukraine-war-after-year-impacts-fertilizer-production-prices-and-trade-flows">fertilizer prices have surged</a> because of trade sanctions on Russia, the world’s leading fertilizer exporter.</p>
<p>Amid these challenges, some organizations are renewing calls for a <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/green-revolution/">second Green Revolution</a>, echoing the introduction in the 1960s and 1970s of supposedly high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice into developing countries, along with synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Those efforts centered on India and other Asian countries; today, advocates focus on <a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/initiative/alliance-for-a-green-revolution-in-africa/">sub-Saharan Africa</a>, where the original Green Revolution regime never took hold.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In this Oct. 25, 2000, episode of the television drama ‘The West Wing,’ president Josiah Bartlet invokes the standard account of Green Revolution seeds saving millions from starvation.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But anyone concerned with food production should be careful what they wish for. In recent years, a <a href="https://www.sbc.edu/live/files/2598-stone2019greenrevpdf">wave of new analysis</a> has spurred a critical rethinking of what Green Revolution-style farming really means for food supplies and self-sufficiency.</p>
<p>As I explain in my book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Agricultural-Dilemma-How-Not-to-Feed-the-World/Stone/p/book/9781032260457">The Agricultural Dilemma: How Not to Feed the World</a>,” the Green Revolution does hold lessons for food production today – but not the ones that are commonly heard. Events in India show why.</p>
<h2>A triumphal narrative</h2>
<p>There was a consensus in the 1960s among development officials and the public that an overpopulated Earth was heading toward catastrophe. Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 bestseller, “<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/">The Population Bomb</a>,” famously predicted that nothing could stop “hundreds of millions” from starving in the 1970s. </p>
<p>India was the global poster child for this looming Malthusian disaster: Its population was booming, drought was ravaging its countryside and its imports of American wheat were climbing to levels that <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBSH">alarmed government officials in India and the U.S</a>. </p>
<p>Then, in 1967, India began distributing new wheat varieties bred by Rockefeller Foundation plant biologist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Norman-Borlaug">Norman Borlaug</a>, along with high doses of chemical fertilizer. After famine failed to materialize, observers credited the new farming strategy with <a href="https://thewire.in/agriculture/food-security-green-revolution">enabling India to feed itself</a>.</p>
<p>Borlaug received the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/biographical/">1970 Nobel Peace Prize</a> and is still widely credited with “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/globalcitizen/2023/07/23/oppenheimer-and-the-man-who-saved-1-billion-lives-tale-of-two-geniuses/?sh=397873936b26">saving a billion lives</a>.” Indian agricultural scientist M.S. Swaminathan, who worked with Borlaug to promote the Green Revolution, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2023/09/28/ms-swaminathan-india-famine-dead/">received the inaugural World Food Prize in 1987</a>. Tributes to Swaminathan, who died on Sept. 28, 2023, at age 98, have reiterated the claim that his efforts brought India “<a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/he-was-the-face-of-the-green-revolution-101695908903502.html">self-sufficiency in food production</a>” and independence from Western powers. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a suit at a podium, speaking and gesturing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Plant scientist M.S. Swaminathan, often called the father of India’s Green Revolution, speaks at a world summit on food security in Rome on Sept. 10, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-unesco-ecotechnology-director-known-as-the-father-of-news-photo/90539380">Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Debunking the legend</h2>
<p>The standard legend of India’s Green Revolution centers on two propositions. First, India faced a food crisis, with farms mired in tradition and unable to feed an exploding population; and second, Borlaug’s wheat seeds led to record harvests from 1968 on, replacing import dependence with food self-sufficiency. </p>
<p>Recent research shows that both claims are false. </p>
<p>India was importing wheat in the 1960s <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674725812">because of policy decisions</a>, not overpopulation. After the nation achieved independence in 1947, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru prioritized developing heavy industry. U.S. advisers encouraged this strategy and <a href="https://thewire.in/agriculture/green-revolution-borlaug-food-security">offered to provide India with surplus grain</a>, which India accepted as cheap food for urban workers.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the government urged Indian farmers to grow nonfood export crops to earn foreign currency. They switched millions of acres from rice to jute production, and by the mid-1960s India was <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674725812">exporting agricultural products</a>.</p>
<p>Borlaug’s miracle seeds were <a href="https://upittpress.org/books/9780822947349/">not inherently more productive</a> than many Indian wheat varieties. Rather, they just responded more effectively to high doses of chemical fertilizer. But while India had abundant manure from its cows, it produced almost no chemical fertilizer. It had to start spending heavily to import and subsidize fertilizer. </p>
<p>India did see a wheat boom after 1967, but there is evidence that this expensive new input-intensive approach was not the main cause. Rather, the Indian government established a new policy of paying higher prices for wheat. Unsurprisingly, Indian farmers <a href="https://rajpatel.org/2014/08/29/every-factoid-is-a-mystery-how-to-think-more-clearly-about-the-green-revolution-and-other-agricultural-claims/">planted more wheat</a> and less of other crops.</p>
<p>Once India’s 1965-67 drought ended and the Green Revolution began, wheat production sped up, while production trends in other crops like rice, maize and pulses <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Agricultural-Dilemma-How-Not-to-Feed-the-World/Stone/p/book/9781032260457">slowed down</a>. Net food grain production, which was much more crucial than wheat production alone, actually <a href="https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Previous_AT_Glance.htm">resumed at the same growth rate as before</a>. </p>
<p>But grain production became more erratic, forcing India to resume importing food by the mid-1970s. India also became dramatically <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Agricultural-Dilemma-How-Not-to-Feed-the-World/Stone/p/book/9781032260457">more dependent on chemical fertilizer</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing grain production in India from 1952-1982 and intensifying fertilizer use." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">India’s Green Revolution wheat boom came at the expense of other crops; the growth rate of overall food grain production did not increase at all. It is doubtful that the ‘revolution’ produced any more food than would have been produced anyway. What increased dramatically was dependence on imported fertilizer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Davis Stone; data from India Directorate of Economics and Statistics and Fertiliser Association of India</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>According to data from Indian <a href="https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Previous_AT_Glance.htm">economic</a> and <a href="https://www.faidelhi.org/statistics/statistical-database">agricultural</a> organizations, on the eve of the Green Revolution in 1965, Indian farmers needed 17 pounds (8 kilograms) of fertilizer to grow an average ton of food. By 1980, it took 96 pounds (44 kilograms). So, India replaced imports of wheat, which were virtually free food aid, with imports of fossil fuel-based fertilizer, paid for with precious international currency.</p>
<p>Today, India remains the world’s second-highest fertilizer importer, spending <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-fertilizers-imports-by-country/">US$17.3 billion in 2022</a>. Perversely, Green Revolution boosters call this extreme and expensive dependence “<a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/india-at-75/overcoming-food-emergencies-through-imports-from-us-via-pl480/article65753881.ece">self-sufficiency</a>.” </p>
<h2>The toll of ‘green’ pollution</h2>
<p>Recent research shows that the environmental costs of the Green Revolution are as severe as its economic impacts. One reason is that fertilizer use is astonishingly wasteful. Globally, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo325">only 17% of what is applied</a> is taken up by plants and ultimately consumed as food. Most of the rest washes into waterways, where it creates <a href="https://theconversation.com/dead-zones-are-a-global-water-pollution-challenge-but-with-sustained-effort-they-can-come-back-to-life-96077">algae blooms and dead zones</a> that smother aquatic life. Producing and using fertilizer also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18773-w">generates copious greenhouse gases</a> that contribute to climate change.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excess nutrients are creating dead zones in water bodies worldwide. Synthetic fertilizer is a major source.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In Punjab, India’s top Green Revolution state, heavy use of fertilizers and pesticides has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jul/01/the-indian-state-where-farmers-sow-the-seeds-of-death">contaminated water, soil and food</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/as.2019.1010101">endangered human health</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, African countries where the Green Revolution has not made inroads should consider themselves lucky. Ethiopia offers a cautionary case. In recent years, the Ethiopian government has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-16/wheat-farming-drive-in-ethiopia-gathers-pace-as-shortages-bite#xj4y7vzkg">forced farmers to plant</a> increasing amounts of fertilizer-intensive wheat, claiming this will achieve “<a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202306230565.html">self-sufficiency</a>” and even allow it to <a href="https://borkena.com/2023/02/27/wheat-selling-as-smuggled-commodity/">export wheat worth $105 million</a> this year. Some African officials hail this strategy as an <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202306230565.html">example for the continent</a>.</p>
<p>But Ethiopia has no fertilizer factories, so it has to import it – at a cost of <a href="https://newbusinessethiopia.com/agribusiness/ethiopia-spent-one-billion-usd-for-fertilizers-import/">$1 billion just in the past year</a>. Even so, many farmers face <a href="https://addisstandard.com/analysis-fertilizer-shortage-amidst-widespread-illicit-trade-cripples-farmers-threatens-productivity/">severe fertilizer shortages</a>.</p>
<p>The Green Revolution still has many boosters today, especially among biotech companies that are eager to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150903498754">draw parallels</a> between genetically engineered crops and Borlaug’s seeds. I agree that it offers important lessons about how to move forward with food production, but actual data tells a distinctly different story from the standard narrative. In my view, there are many ways to pursue <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.03.004">less input-intensive agriculture</a> that will be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2018.05.002">more sustainable</a> in a world with an increasingly erratic climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn Davis Stone receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation.</span></em></p>Did the Green Revolution, which brought high-tech agriculture to developing nations in the 1960s, prevent famine? Recent research takes a much more skeptical view.Glenn Davis Stone, Research Professor of Environmental Science, Sweet Briar CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1635042021-06-28T15:09:58Z2021-06-28T15:09:58ZEngland players suffer from stereotype they can’t win penalty shootouts, research suggests<p>It’s one of the strongest stereotypes in world sport: England’s national football team is bad at <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/10843004/Why-are-England-so-bad-at-penalty-shoot-outs.html">penalty shootouts</a>. Trotted out whenever England find themselves in the knockout phases of an international tournament, this time-worn stereotype always seems most pronounced when England are to face <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/25/football/england-germany-euro-2020-rivarly-cmd-spt-intl/index.html">historic rivals</a> Germany. </p>
<p>That rivalry has featured two agonising penalty shootouts, both of which have ended with English heads in English hands as the Germans wheel off in celebration. With England set to take on Germany once more on June 29, in the round of 16 knockout phase of <a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/match/2024484--england-vs-germany/prematch/background/">Euro 2020</a>, it appears parts of the country have already breathed a collective sigh of resignation. If the game’s to be decided on penalties, the stereotype dictates, England will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/24/lothar-matthaus-england-germany-penalties-euro-2020">inevitably lose</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fspy0000247">Our research</a> suggests that the notion that England are poor at penalties may have an effect on England’s players, making them perform worse when it comes to taking a spot-kick. This means that perpetuating this stereotype isn’t just inconsequential pundits’ patter – it may actually prevent England’s players from performing well when they step up to the spot.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-take-a-penalty-like-a-pro-96573">How to take a penalty like a pro</a>
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<p>It’s true that, across the World Cup and the Euros, England are poor and Germany are impressive at <a href="https://sports.stackexchange.com/questions/5349/football-penalty-shootouts-germany-wins-71-of-the-time-england-17-only-any">penalty shootouts</a>. England have won just two of the eight shootouts they’ve encountered, while Germany have won six of the seven they’ve participated in. England’s tally is one of the worst in world football, while Germany’s is one of the best.</p>
<p>And of course, there’s history here too. England lost to Germany on penalties in the semi-final of <a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/match/52916--germany-vs-england/postmatch/report/">Euro 1996</a>, just six years after England met the same fate, against the same adversaries, at the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/27455029">1990 World Cup</a>. England have never beaten Germany when their knockout clashes have been decided from the penalty spot.</p>
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<p>The stark contrast in fortunes between the two sides has fuelled the stereotype that England are terrible at penalties, and that facing Germany from the spot is particularly perilous. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/57603972">Pundits</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f32c2ac6-ec4a-11e3-ab1b-00144feabdc0">journalists</a> and even <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02640410802509144">academics</a> have helped cement this stereotype into footballing folklore. </p>
<h2>Stereotype threats</h2>
<p>Far from harmless melodrama, research suggests this stereotype may hurt England’s chances in future penalty shootouts. That’s because of what’s called a “<a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199732449.001.0001/acprof-9780199732449">stereotype threat</a>” – the fear people have that their performance will confirm negative stereotypes about the group to which they belong.</p>
<p>When girls are solving maths problems, for instance, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11199-011-0051-0">studies</a> have shown that they perform worse if they’re reminded of negative stereotypes about women’s maths abilities beforehand. The fear that they’ll conform to that stereotype takes up some of the brain’s bandwidth, reducing <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0963721409359292">working memory capacity</a> and limiting their ability to solve the problem. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2570773/">Research</a> has shown that those who are highly skilled and highly invested in their performance see the most impairment from a stereotype threat. </p>
<p>In sporting tasks, though, stereotype threats seem to operate differently. That’s because expert sporting skills become highly automatic with practice, and are likely optimised when they’re performed outside of conscious control. The <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/england-players-on-the-spot-with-penalty-practice-in-preparation-for-euros-6bfh7ldgb">penalty kick</a> is one such skill.</p>
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<img alt="A player taking a penalty kick" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408644/original/file-20210628-21-13tae53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408644/original/file-20210628-21-13tae53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408644/original/file-20210628-21-13tae53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408644/original/file-20210628-21-13tae53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408644/original/file-20210628-21-13tae53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408644/original/file-20210628-21-13tae53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408644/original/file-20210628-21-13tae53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">For elite footballers, the penalty kick is an automatic, well-drilled skill.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-young-soccer-player-taking-penalty-304629680">Bigandt.com/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Penalty-taking appears to be disrupted by a stereotype threat because athletes divert their attention to monitoring their step-by-step performance, interrupting the automatic execution of the skill. So, in contrast to the working memory notion above, stereotype threats in sport may actually affect performance – not because they shift attention away from executing the skill, but because they encourage too much attention on it.</p>
<h2>Sporting stereotypes</h2>
<p>Stereotype threats have been studied across various sports, including <a href="https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/jsep/34/1/article-p3.xml">basketball</a>, <a href="https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fspy0000047">golf</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1469029213000861?via%253Dihub">tennis</a>, and even <a href="https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/jsep/41/4/article-p242.xml">endurance</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02701367.2019.1668518">strength</a> tasks. </p>
<p>For example, white men competing in basketball see their performance suffer when they’re reminded of a stereotype that “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1207/s15324834basp1903_2">white men can’t jump</a>”. Women perform worse than men at <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1469029213000861?via=ihub">tennis serving</a> when reminded of a gender stereotype about natural athletic ability. And in football, studies have found that female players perform worse at <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1469029216300772?via%253Dihub">dribbling</a> and <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01963/full">shooting</a> when they’re told beforehand that women are bad at football. </p>
<p>Adding to this body of research, we’ve <a href="https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fspy0000247">examined</a> the national stereotype that England are awful at penalty shootouts. Our research participants unanimously agreed that “compared to the rest of the men’s football world, England are terrible at penalty shootouts”. </p>
<p>The English footballers in our studies scored fewer penalties when they were reminded of this national stereotype. But when players were encouraged to question the stereotype, they performed better – they worried less about “messing up” and were able to take their penalties unburdened by England’s years of penalty woes.</p>
<h2>Quashing the stereotype</h2>
<p>Our findings suggest that questioning the penalty stereotype could prove key if the current England team are to overcome their poor record in penalty shootouts. To do this, fans and the media should resist perpetuating the stereotype that England are uniquely terrible at penalty shootouts. </p>
<p>The media should avoid the constant mention of penalties, and fans should avoid groaning at the thought of a shootout. If the players believe that “everyone thinks we’re going to lose on penalties”, this negative stereotype may well encourage the players to explicitly monitor their performance, with a subsequent breakdown of their natural, automatic skill.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, it’s important that players and coaches actively question and resist the negative stereotype. Players could, for instance, remind each other that they score penalties all the time when playing for their club teams, so there’s no reason to believe they can’t do the same in international football. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/euro-2020-penalty-shootouts-can-be-won-or-lost-on-a-coin-toss-163039">Euro 2020: penalty shootouts can be won or lost on a coin toss</a>
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<p>There’s one potential positive to the penalty stereotype. Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022103113000048?via%253Dihub">earlier work</a> has shown that negative feedback from an opposing side can often motivate athletes, who are driven to “prove them wrong”. With <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/24/lothar-matthaus-england-germany-penalties-euro-2020">Germany’s supporters</a> more than happy to reference England’s poor penalty shootout record, the England team could harness this feedback, showing that a loss on penalties – if it comes to that – isn’t inevitable after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163504/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>England players may be affected by the negative stereotype that they’re terrible in a penalty shootout.Tim Rees, Professor in Sport, Bournemouth UniversityJessica Salvatore, Associate Professor of Psychology & STEM Division Head, Sweet Briar CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1299562020-02-07T13:50:43Z2020-02-07T13:50:43ZThe Philippines has rated ‘Golden Rice’ safe, but farmers might not plant it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313835/original/file-20200205-149747-1qd8v3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C5%2C3573%2C2382&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Golden rice, right, compared to white rice, left.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_rice#/media/File:Golden_Rice.jpg">IRRI/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://www.goldenrice.org/">“Golden Rice</a>” is probably the world’s most hotly debated genetically modified organism (GMO). It was intended to be a beta carotene-enriched crop to reduce Vitamin A deficiency, a health problem in very poor areas. But it has never been offered to farmers for planting.</p>
<p>Why not? Because Golden Rice has an activist problem, according to its proponents. They insist that the rice would have prevented millions of child deaths by now had it not been blocked by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/26/gm-golden-rice-delay-cost-millions-of-lives-child-blindness">anti-science activists</a>. </p>
<p>In particular, they single out <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/01/us/stop-bashing-gmo-foods-more-than-100-nobel-laureates-say.html">Greenpeace</a>, which has <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/planet4-international-stateless/2013/10/08786be5-458-golden-illusion-ge-goldenrice.pdf">campaigned against approval</a> of Golden Rice as part of its broader opposition to GMOs. Greenpeace responds that its actions <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/6866/nobel-laureates-sign-letter-on-greenpeace-golden-rice-position-statement/">are not what has kept Golden Rice from reaching the market</a>.</p>
<p>We study <a href="https://anthropology.wustl.edu/people/glenn-davis-stone">developing-world agriculture</a>, including <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dominic_Glover">use of genetically modified crops</a>, and are conducting ongoing research on Golden Rice, originally funded by the <a href="https://www.templeton.org/">Templeton Foundation</a>. We advocate <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1086/341532">keeping an open mind</a> about Golden Rice, which may eventually have some nutritional potential in limited cases. But our view, based on numerous scientific studies, is that the rice is still beset by problems that have little to do with activists.</p>
<h2>Filling a nutritional gap?</h2>
<p>Vitamin A is one of many nutrients lacking in the diets of the world’s poorest children. Vitamin A deficiency, or VAD, can cause <a href="https://www.merckmanuals.com/professional/nutritional-disorders/vitamin-deficiency,-dependency,-and-toxicity/vitamin-a-deficiency">blindness and even premature death</a>. </p>
<p>The vitamin comes directly from animal products and indirectly from <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/252758.php">beta carotene</a> in plants, which the human body can convert to Vitamin A. Plant scientist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingo_Potrykus">Ingo Potrykus</a>, who co-developed Golden Rice, has claimed that “VAD often occurs where <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11627-001-0019-9">rice is the major staple food</a>.” White rice grains contain no beta carotene. </p>
<p>But it’s not rice’s job to provide vitamins. Most diets across Asia and Africa consist of a carbohydrate core such as rice or maize, which provides calories and bulk, and a sauce, stew or soup for flavor and nutrients. </p>
<p>Since rice is a <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/318699.php#7">poor source of vitamins and minerals</a>, any child eating a rice-only diet will be sick. Genetically modifying rice to contain beta carotene is at best a band-aid for extreme cases of VAD, not a corrective for a widespread problem.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312561/original/file-20200129-92977-1mnsd0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimated prevalence of vitamin A deficiency in children aged 6 to 59 months by country in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00039-X">Stevens et al, 2015</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Decades of development</h2>
<p>Potrykus and colleagues devised a strategy for producing Golden Rice in 1992, and announced in 2000 that they had <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5451.303">developed an experimental prototype</a>. Potrykus appeared on the <a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,997586,00.html">cover of Time magazine</a> with his rice, which the cover proclaimed “could save a million kids a year.”</p>
<p>The biologists were on to something, but the prototype was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-016-9696-1">nowhere near ready for farmers or consumers</a>. The beta carotene concentration was far too low, and researchers did not know if the plants would grow well. The prototype was also a rice variety that farmers in VAD areas would not grow. </p>
<p>In 2002 Golden Rice research moved to the <a href="https://www.irri.org/">International Rice Research Institute</a> (IRRI) in the Philippines to be developed for Filipino farmers. Meanwhile scientists at the global agricultural company Syngenta, which had <a href="http://www.goldenrice.org/Content1-Who/who4_IP.php">acquired commercial rights to the rice</a>, began to develop a new package of genes to improve the beta carotene levels. By 2005 they unveiled Golden Rice 2, which accomplished this.</p>
<p>Next, researchers inserted these GR2 genes into multiple plants, with the goal of introducing them without disrupting other genes. Each insertion is called an “event.” IRRI breeders took the most promising event and began breeding the trait into two trusty lowland rice varieties.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313839/original/file-20200205-149742-2aj307.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Packets of different rice breeds stored in a refrigerated room at the International Rice Research Institute Rice Germplasm Bank, Laguna, Philippines, Nov. 27, 2003.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tens-of-thousands-of-packets-of-different-rice-breeds-are-news-photo/2769505?adppopup=true">Joel Nito/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>But there was a problem. Field trials showed that the introduced genes had indeed <a href="http://www.goldenrice.orwww.goldenrice.org/PDFs/Dubock-The_present_status_of_Golden_Rice-2014.pdf">disrupted other genes and lowered the rice’s productivity</a>, so breeders turned to a different event. By 2017 field trials showed that this rice <a href="https://www.irri.org/golden-rice-faqs">grew adequately</a>. The rice was submitted to the Philippine Bureau of Plant Industry, which <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2228793-gm-golden-rice-gets-landmark-safety-approval-in-the-philippines/">designated it as safe</a> in December 2019.</p>
<p>However, Golden Rice still has to be approved for commercial sale and still needs a company to grow marketable quantities of seed. Proponents’ claim that the rice would be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbt.2010.07.012">given free to farmers</a> is false: No one has offered to produce and distribute the rice seed for nothing. And even if someone were to grow marketable quantities of seed for sale, two crucial problems remain.</p>
<h2>Unanswered questions</h2>
<p>First, the claim that Golden Rice will remedy Vitamin A deficiency remains unproven. As <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150813165459/http://irri.org/blogs/item/clarifying-recent-news-about-golden-rice">IRRI scientists themselves stressed in 2013</a>, “It has not yet been determined whether daily consumption of Golden Rice does improve the vitamin A status of people who are vitamin A deficient.”</p>
<p>Vitamin A is fat-soluble, and children with VAD rarely have fats in their diet. Moreover, they usually suffer from gut parasites and infections that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0002-8223(01)00073-6">make it harder to convert beta carotene to vitamin A</a>. </p>
<p>A 2012 study, which has been cited over 70 times – despite being <a href="https://doi.org/10.3945/ajcn.114.093229">retracted in 2015</a> for breaching research ethics – seemed to show that Golden Rice would <a href="https://doi.org/10.3945/ajcn.111.030775">raise children’s vitamin A levels</a>. But children in the study were fed balanced meals that included fats, thus demonstrating only that Golden Rice worked in children who did not need it. </p>
<p>Even the latest analysis of Golden Rice’s safety points out that research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57669-5">has yet to show that it will mitigate VAD</a>. And by the time Golden Rice gets to undernourished children, its beta carotene level may be very low, since the compound <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodchem.2018.11.121">deteriorates fairly quickly</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4dxnw4MMfoQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Fortifying foods like rice with micronutrients is an established strategy for reducing malnutrition. But Golden Rice is the first effort to do this through genetic engineering.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Second, there is no clear way for the rice to get to the children who need it. Projections of the benefits of Golden Rice assume that farmers will immediately grow it, but families poor enough to be affected by VAD often lack land to grow rice for themselves. VAD in the Philippines has been highest in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Province">Mountain Province</a>, where farmers are unlikely to plant lowland rice varieties, and in part of metro Manila where no rice farming occurs.</p>
<p>To reach undernourished kids in areas like these, Golden Rice would have to be grown by commercial farmers and sold in markets. We examined whether farmers would plant Golden Rice in a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X19304804?via%3Dihub">new study of seed selection practices</a> in a “rice bowl” area of the Philippines.</p>
<p>Farmers choose from a large and rapidly changing array of rice seeds, based on agronomic performance, market demands and local trends. Their choices show that varieties containing the “Golden” trait are out of fashion, overtaken by newer and better performing varieties.</p>
<p>Some might adopt Golden Rice if it could fetch a premium in the market, but extremely poor customers are unlikely to pay it. Farmers may need subsidies to plant Golden Rice, but it is unclear who would pay them to plant it.</p>
<h2>An oversold solution</h2>
<p>The old claim, repeated again in a <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/golden-rice">recent book</a>, that Golden Rice was “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/golden-rice-genetically-modified-superfood-almost-saved-millions/">basically ready for use in 2002</a>” is silly. As recently as 2017, IRRI made it clear that Golden Rice still had to be “successfully developed into rice varieties suitable for Asia, approved by national regulators, and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170217145954/http://irri.org/golden-rice/faqs/what-is-the-status-of-the-golden-rice-project-coordinated-by-irri">shown to improve vitamin A status in community conditions</a>.”</p>
<p>The Philippines has managed to cut its childhood VAD rate in half with <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140731160310/https://www.irri.org/golden-rice/faqs/why-is-golden-rice-needed-in-the-philippines-since-vitamin-a-deficiency-is-already-decreasing">conventional nutrition programs</a>. If Golden Rice appears on the market in the Philippines by 2022, it will have taken over 30 years of development to create a product that may not affect vitamin levels in its target population, and that farmers may need to be paid to plant. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129956/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn Davis Stone has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the Wenner-Gren Foundatioin for Anthropological Research, the John Templeton Foundation, and the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic Glover has received funding from various sources to support different pieces of work on the spread and impacts of transgenic crop technologies in the global South, including the John Templeton Foundation, the UK's Economic and Social Research Council and the United Nations High Commission on Human Rights (UNHCHR, on behalf of the UN's Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food).</span></em></p>Golden Rice – a controversial genetically modified product designed to combat malnutrition – has been approved as safe in the Philippines. But key questions remain unanswered.Glenn Davis Stone, Research Professor of Environmental Science, Sweet Briar CollegeDominic Glover, Research Fellow, Institute of Development StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.