tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/ucl-1885/articlesUCL2024-03-28T12:21:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2266712024-03-28T12:21:08Z2024-03-28T12:21:08ZErdoğan’s party seeks advantage as Turkey’s local elections coincide with Ramadan<p>Millions of voters in Turkey will <a href="https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-local-elections-things-to-know-1cad0f209f0aed8c78f41307b52d4c2d">head to the polls</a> on March 31 to elect mayors in local elections. These elections are seen as crucial both for the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which has been in power since 2002, and the opposition.</p>
<p>The last time Turkey held local elections, in March 2019, Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost key cities such as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48739256">Istanbul</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/recep-tayyip-erdogan-loses-control-ankara-turkish-elections/">Ankara</a>. It will be looking to win them back. At the same time, retaining key cities would help revive Turkey’s opposition after it <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-held-onto-power-in-turkey-and-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206293">failed to defeat</a> Erdoğan in the 2023 national and presidential elections.</p>
<p>How will the elections pan out on March 31? Many things have happened since the last local elections, not least the COVID pandemic and the devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-earthquakes-one-year-on-the-devastation-has-exposed-deep-societal-scars-and-women-are-bearing-the-brunt-221819">earthquakes</a> that rocked the country in 2023. But one thing is clearly different this time. While the elections in 2019 happened before the holy month of Ramadan, the 2024 elections will happen at the height of Ramadan.</p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00031224221101204">Research</a> from 2022 that I co-authored with my colleague, Diego Gambetta, suggests that Ramadan can drive up the intensity of religious beliefs, bolster the success of religious organisations, and even influence the results of elections. </p>
<p>Erdoğan’s AKP has a strong base of support among people from the conservative tradition of Turkey. This could give the party an extra edge. However, the role Ramadan might play in the elections is intricate. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-held-onto-power-in-turkey-and-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206293">How Erdogan held onto power in Turkey, and what this means for the country's future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The Muslim holy month</h2>
<p>Ramadan is the holiest month of the Islamic year. It is a month where religious activities as well as charity and community services increase. Muslims abstain from drinking, eating, smoking and sexual intimacy from sunrise to sunset for a whole month.</p>
<p>Ramadan fasting is a physically and mentally demanding religious practice. Nevertheless, a very large majority of Muslims <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/dataset/the-worlds-muslims/">report</a> to be adhering to the full month of fasting.</p>
<p>A particular feature of Ramadan is that its start date is based on the lunar calendar. The lunar year is shorter than the solar year. Therefore, the whole month of Ramadan shifts back in the solar year by about 11 days each year. Because fasting happens between sunrise and sunset, this means that how long people must fast in a Ramadan day varies over the years. </p>
<p>How much day length changes over the years also varies by latitude. Take, for instance, London. When Ramadan falls in December (which happened during the late 1990s), a Muslim Londoner fasts for slightly less than eight hours. However, when Ramadan falls in June (which happened in 2015), the fasting duration is nearly 17 hours, a difference of nine hours. </p>
<p>In Antakya, the southernmost city in Turkey, the same difference between a winter and summer Ramadan day length is only about five hours (just below ten hours in winter and just above 14 hours in summer).</p>
<h2>Do religions defy the law of demand?</h2>
<p>The changing start date of Ramadan gives <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/130/2/615/2330341">researchers</a> a source of variation in the costliness of religious practice. This variation, in turn, helps researchers tackle the following longstanding social scientific puzzle.</p>
<p>As the cost of an activity increases (in this case, the physical and mental demands of fasting), people should, in theory, not be willing to spend as many resources on it, assuming all else remains equal. Economists call this the law of demand. In the religious domain, however, something different seems to happen. </p>
<p>Research, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00031224221101204">including my own</a>, shows that the more effort someone exerts in religious practice, the more religious they get, and subsequently the more successful religious organisations that require those practices become. </p>
<p>The mechanisms that give rise to this effect seem to involve adaptive preferences. This is where gradually increasing effort in a certain task raises a person’s commitment to the task. Indeed, the change in fasting duration over the years happens only gradually rather than abruptly.</p>
<p>If religiosity increases and religious organisations become more successful during and after Ramadans with long fasting days, we can, in principle, detect the effects of Ramadan on the electoral cycle. The longer people are fasting during Ramadan, the more votes Islamic political parties should get.</p>
<p>We tested this prediction in our research using data from Turkey, focusing on the parliamentary elections from 1973 to 2018. We found that a half-hour rise in the duration of Ramadan fasting increases the vote share of Islamist political parties by 11%. The sooner the election is after Ramadan, the stronger the effect of fasting duration on Islamic votes. </p>
<p>It seems that gradually exerting higher religious effort further intensifies religious beliefs and participation, which in turn drives up votes for political parties with religious connotations.</p>
<h2>What will happen on March 31?</h2>
<p>All else equal, which admittedly is never the case, the fact that Turkey’s local elections are taking place during Ramadan should help Islamist political parties gain ground, including Erdoğan’s AKP.</p>
<p>However, Ramadan day length in the northern hemisphere peaked in 2019 and has been decreasing since. This could mean that Islamic parties will face a steeper uphill struggle to keep their votes in the longer term. This is particularly true at northern latitudes (both within Turkey and beyond) where the decline in Ramadan day length is stronger. </p>
<p>It is difficult to tell which of these two opposing effects of Ramadan will dominate on March 31. But <a href="https://tr.euronews.com/2024/03/06/31-mart-yerel-secimleri-son-anketlere-gore-istanbulda-kim-onde-imamoglu-ve-kurumun-oyu-kac">polls</a> show that the race between AKP and the opposition is very close in many places. </p>
<p>In such close elections small factors could tip the balance. Time will soon tell who Ramadan will be most generous towards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ozan Aksoy receives funding from the British Academy (Grant no: SRG20\200045). </span></em></p>Research finds that Ramadan can bolster the success of religious organisations and even influence the results of elections.Ozan Aksoy, Associate Professor in Social Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234182024-03-26T12:50:07Z2024-03-26T12:50:07ZMeasuring emotional ‘emptiness’ could help manage this potentially life-threatening experience<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583273/original/file-20240320-26-46trqd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C12%2C4071%2C2287&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/emptiness-metaphorical-view-woman-struggle-trapped-2344696049">GoodIdeas/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine a hollowness deep in your chest, a vacant space where feelings should be. Imagine being numb and devoid of all emotion, happy or sad – with any sensations simply passing right through you. You are watching the world go by from behind a screen – so disconnected that you feel a million miles away from people you care about the most. </p>
<p>This is how <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09638237.2021.1922645">hundreds of people</a> have described the existential feeling of emotional “emptiness”. Perhaps some aspects may feel familiar to you. After all, research has repeatedly shown that emptiness is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09638237.2021.1922645">a common experience</a>, felt by many of us around the world. </p>
<p>For some, emptiness may be a fleeting experience during a time of immense difficulty in our lives, which passes. Following a period of feeling empty, we may be able to sense ourselves returning, feeling gradually more connected to our inner-self, other people, and the world around us.</p>
<p>But for some, emptiness is a chronic, debilitating experience which has been found to be strongly connected to numerous <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285484794_Emptiness_and_suicidal_behavior_An_exploratory_review">life-limiting</a> mental health difficulties such as depression, anxiety and experiences of hearing voices, including for people who receive a diagnosis of a personality disorder.</p>
<p>Recent developments including <a href="https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10156157/">new measurement tools</a>, however, are starting to shine a light on this elusive experience, enabling researchers and mental health professionals to better support people who feel this way.</p>
<h2>What is emptiness?</h2>
<p>In 2022, along with a colleague, I proposed a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09638237.2021.1922645">formal definition</a> of emptiness as: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>A feeling that one is going through life mechanically, devoid of emotions and purpose, and therefore is empty inside, with emptiness often being bodily felt in the form of a discomfort in the chest. This is coupled with feelings that one is disconnected from others, in some way invisible to others, and unable to contribute to a world that remains the same, but from which one is distant and detached.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Our research found that while emptiness is experienced by people who have mental health difficulties, it is also felt by those who have never suffered with their mental health before, and who may have never felt the need to seek help from professionals. </p>
<p>Despite this, across all of those who took part in the research, it was found that greater feelings of emptiness were related to poorer mental health and lower satisfaction with life.</p>
<h2>Emptiness and mental health</h2>
<p>People who feel empty often or all the time are more <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/sltb.12949">likely to have self-harmed</a>, <a href="https://guilfordjournals.com/doi/abs/10.1521/pedi_2021_35_510">thought about suicide</a>, or gone on to make an attempt to end their life. </p>
<p>These findings add to <a href="https://journals.lww.com/hrpjournal/abstract/2020/09000/the_feeling_of_emptiness__a_review_of_a_complex.1.aspx">previous research</a> showing that emptiness is related to harmful use of drugs, alcohol, and unsafe sex. Other <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-open/article/psychological-emptiness-scale-a-psychometric-evaluation/A47CFA3CA020FFA897ACA030241E29B9">studies show</a> that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09638237.2021.1922645">feelings of emptiness</a> seem to affect every aspect of a person’s individual and social world. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/many-of-us-feel-empty-understanding-what-it-means-is-important-for-improving-our-mental-health-163035">Many of us feel 'empty' – understanding what it means is important for improving our mental health</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Self-harm, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/cpp.2781">suicide</a> and use of substances or sex can be understood, then, as ways of coping with or distracting from the emotional <a href="https://journals.lww.com/hrpjournal/abstract/2020/09000/the_feeling_of_emptiness__a_review_of_a_complex.1.aspx">pain of feeling empty</a>.</p>
<h2>Measuring emptiness</h2>
<p>Thankfully, research in this much-needed area is progressing. Our 2022 definition has increased the understanding of emptiness among researchers and health professionals, and has led researchers to develop a new way of measuring and tracking it over time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582157/original/file-20240315-24-9wiaxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C998%2C664&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582157/original/file-20240315-24-9wiaxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582157/original/file-20240315-24-9wiaxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582157/original/file-20240315-24-9wiaxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582157/original/file-20240315-24-9wiaxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582157/original/file-20240315-24-9wiaxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582157/original/file-20240315-24-9wiaxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emptiness is commonly experienced but there’s been no way to measure it – until now.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/silhouette-depressed-anxiety-person-head-negative-1216075753">tadamichi/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38299317/">Psychological Emptiness Scale</a>, created in 2022 by clinical and social psychologists alongside statisticians, is a questionnaire consisting of 19 items. It asks people questions such as whether they feel emotionally numb, that they are going through the motions, and that they have no direction in life. </p>
<p>This tool is now available for researchers and mental health professionals to use to formally assess a person’s level of emptiness. It allows this complex, existential feeling to be accurately captured and quantified. </p>
<p>This will enable researchers to properly study emptiness, explore questions about how it develops, and how different therapeutic interventions may help people to manage and reduce this feeling.</p>
<p>Emptiness is a commonly experienced and potentially life-threatening feeling. Accurate measurement marks a significant step forward in our ability to identify, understand and provide support to people who feel this way, in the hope of ultimately reducing distress and saving lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shona Joyce Herron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For some, emptiness is a chronic, life-limiting issue. But how can we quantify such a complex feeling?Shona Joyce Herron, Senior Clinical Psychologist, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259422024-03-21T18:01:44Z2024-03-21T18:01:44ZUS election: turning off TikTok is a big risk for the Democrats<p>Popular social media platform TikTok <a href="https://www.risch.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2023/7/china-using-tiktok-as-indoctrination-machine-against-america-s-youth-gop-senator-warns">stands accused</a> of holding US data in China, fostering censorship, and spreading disinformation. Its popularity poses a dilemma for US politicians, but especially Democrats who have heavily relied on the app to reach its core base of young voters.</p>
<p>Is it “<a href="https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/china-watcher/times-up-for-tiktok/">time up</a>” for TikTok in the US? And will it be the Democrats’ own leader, President Joe Biden, who ultimately decides to close down the platform heading into the 2024 elections?</p>
<p>On March 13 the US House of Representatives <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/tiktok-ban-house-vote/">voted</a> 352 to 65 to order TikTok’s parent company, Beijing-based <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2024/03/18/tiktok-sale-ban-chinese-government-us-security/72988111007/#:%7E:text=Chinese%20government%20has%20seat%20on%20ByteDance%20board&text=The%20Chinese%20government%20doesn%27t,access%20to%20U.S.%20user%20information.">ByteDance</a>, to sell the app (which is believed to have 150 million US users) or else face prohibition in the US over its <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-tiktoks-parent-company-an-agent-of-the-chinese-state-in-china-inc-its-a-little-more-complicated-225749">alleged links to the Chinese Communist party</a>.</p>
<p>The bill follows <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/03/14/tiktok-may-split-with-china-based-bytedance-to-avoid-us-ban-report-says/?sh=1c0a7305423d">reports</a> that TikTok’s American executives are already exploring options for voluntarily splitting with ByteDance in a preemptive move to avoid regulatory scrutiny. </p>
<p>Although the bipartisan bill is by no means guaranteed to pass the Senate – where Democrat majority leader Chuck Schumer has <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4529110-schumer-non-committal-on-house-passed-tiktok-ban/">not committed</a> to bring it to a vote on the floor – Biden has said <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/biden-backs-effort-to-force-sale-of-tiktok-by-chinese-owners-ba989656">he would sign the proposal</a> if it comes to his desk.</p>
<p>The campaign implications of this loom large. Many Democrats fear that banning TikTok in the lead-up to the election would be a self-inflicted political disaster, particularly when it comes to courting young voters.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-is-investing-in-influencers-to-help-with-this-years-election-224912">Why Biden is investing in influencers to help with this year's election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>One consultant <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-tiktok-dilemma-a-ban-could-hurt-democrats-more-than-republicans-a74bcf2a">called</a> the Democrats “politically insane” for putting TikTok in jeopardy. And US commerce secretary Gina Raimondo <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/24/democrats-tiktok-ban-china-00088659">speculated</a> that blocking TikTok would lead to Democrats to “literally lose every voter under 35, forever”.</p>
<p>The impact of losing even a few marginal percentage points of votes from the under 35 crowd matters. </p>
<p>Young voters were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/07/joe-biden-youth-vote-gaza-climate-change">pivotal</a> in elevating Biden to the White House in 2020. However, some <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/number-public-polls-show-young-voters-turning-biden-rcna125794">polling</a> shows Biden lagging behind former president Donald Trump among gen-Z and young millenials. </p>
<h2>Investing in TikTok</h2>
<p>In recent months, Democratic party operatives have not-so-quietly invested enormously into voter outreach on TikTok, in the hopes of shoring up the youth vote. The Biden campaign account, @BidenHQ, has more than <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@bidenhq?lang=en">266,000 followers</a> and @thedemocrats has over <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@thedemocrats?lang=en">529,000</a>.</p>
<p>The overwhelmingly young, progressive user base is likely to resent the government taking away their favourite app. A ban could also severely limit the Democratic party’s ability to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-ban-tiktok-would-rob-biden-democrats-2024-election-tool-2024-03-14/">connect with younger voters</a> through advertising and other forms of engagement.</p>
<p>The Biden campaign, the Democratic National Committee and Democrat-aligned groups have spent millions of dollars <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-is-investing-in-influencers-to-help-with-this-years-election-224912">courting influencers</a> who appear on TikTok and other social media platforms such as YouTube, Facebook and Instagram. Recently, the White House even hosted a star-studded gala for hundreds of would-be digital leaders.</p>
<p>Beyond Biden, many of the Democratic party’s most visible rising stars – such as <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@aocinthehouse?lang=en">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a>, who has more than 900,000 followers on TikTok – use the app to communicate with their constitutents and fans. Similarly, US transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/14/media/pete-buttigieg-fox-news/index.html">has made a name for himself</a> on TikTok for his viral take-down videos of Fox News hosts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/">Data from non-partisan organisation Pew Research</a> shows that the number of voters aged 18-29 who get their news from TikTok has jumped to 32%, a more than threefold increase since the 2020 election. Additionally, a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-numbers-help-explain-bidens-camp-joined-tiktok-rcna138489">poll by NBC</a> found that young TikTok users skew Democrat over Republican by a margin of 47% to 30%.</p>
<h2>Trump makes a U-turn</h2>
<p>Biden’s position on TikTok has not gone unremarked on by his rival, who’s tried to exploit the controversy for political gain. In 2020, Trump proposed an executive order to outlaw the app in the US, which was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/09/27/tiktok-ban-injunction/">rejected</a> by a federal judge. But now the former president is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/12/trump-tiktok-ban-lobbying/">embracing it</a>.</p>
<p>According to reports, that could be partially due the lobbying efforts of <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-tiktok-ban-reversal-china-jeff-yass-why.html">influential Republican donor Jeff Yass</a>, whose investment firm owns an <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/jeff-yass-tiktok-bytedance-ban-congress-15a41ec4">estimated 15% of ByteDance</a>. Yet it’s also likely to be due to Trump perceiving an opportunity to peel off young voters from Democrats.</p>
<p>“Frankly, there are a lot of people on TikTok that love it,” Trump <a href="https://time.com/6900348/tiktok-ban-donald-trump-congress/">declared</a> in a recent interview. “There are a lot of young kids on TikTok who will go crazy without it.”</p>
<p>Even if Democrats have been more aggressive in leveraging TikTok, Republicans have made inroads in countering this appeal. This includes Trump <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-hosts-conservative-influencers-libs-tik-tok-babylon-bee-dinner-rcna67396">cosying up</a> to Libs of TikTok and the Babylon Bee, two popular pro-Trump social media influencers.</p>
<h2>Election timing</h2>
<p>A potential forced divestment of TikTok could land right in the heat of the 2024 election season. If Biden were to sign the legislation, ByteDance would be <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktoks-potential-buyers-2024-3">granted six months to identify a purchaser</a>. A ban could be put in place as early as October of this year, with the election slated for November 5.</p>
<p>Democrats may be calculating that the odds of a sale not going through are low. For example, former US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has already <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/former-treasury-secretary-mnuchin-is-putting-together-an-investor-group-to-buy-tiktok.html">announced</a> that he’s convening an investor group prepared to buy TikTok if it goes on the market.</p>
<p>Still, the mere act of putting at risk a platform that millions of young voters use for hours of every day can only have political downsides.</p>
<p>The closure of TikTok would boost demand for other social media platforms, as users search for substitutes. Trump, for example, has <a href="https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1767171638510964812">lamented</a> that banning TikTok would “make Facebook bigger”. </p>
<p>This would force Democrats to rethink their strategies, to build new followings, and to repackage their messaging for alternative apps. Yet divergent demographics of user bases would ensure that it wouldn’t be a perfect, one-to-one transition. </p>
<p>For instance, according to the research firm <a href="https://apnews.com/article/facebook-teenagers-tiktok-instagram-young-adults-fc9f6daa605e7c7f6fd5f4eaa90141fa">Insider Intelligence</a>, roughly a quarter of Facebook users are between the ages of 18 to 34. On TikTok it’s almost half. </p>
<p>Biden may well perceive that the national security threats posed by TikTok are too steep a price to accept its continuation as it is. But whether he will push ahead with closing down TikTok ahead of November is – like the election result – hard to call.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225942/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many Democrats fear that banning TikTok would lose them votes from young people.Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241142024-03-20T17:15:38Z2024-03-20T17:15:38ZEngland’s rural housing crisis could be solved by fixing land prices and bringing land into public ownership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582783/original/file-20240319-28-3673sk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/new-housing-development-building-houses-increased-2231267889">Richard Johnson|Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Young people are <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-house-prices-are-18-per-cent-higher-in-the-country-than-in-the-city-573lzgfbt">reportedly</a> being priced out of rural communities by soaring housing costs. Official statistics for England show that affordability in rural parts of the country is worse than in towns and cities, excluding London. In 2021, even the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/rural-housing/rural-housing#housing-affordability">cheapest houses</a> in rural areas cost around 9.2 times more than the earnings of the lowest paid workers. In urban areas, it was eight times more.</p>
<p>Since Brexit, there has been a rise in the number of landlords transferring long-term rental housing into short-term lettings on platforms like Airbnb, in a bid to cash in on the growing staycation market. COVID has increased the appeal of rural living, with more people buying second homes. Affordability has worsened since 2020. </p>
<p>These recent pressures have accentuated the decades-old trends of general counter-urbanisation and demand for rural homes that my colleagues and I discuss in our 2022 book, <a href="https://www.uclpress.co.uk/products/192317">Village Housing</a>. </p>
<p>A combination of planning constraint and external demand pressures, focused on the smallest villages and hamlets, is driving land price expectation and making it <a href="https://www.housing.org.uk/rural-exception-sites/">difficult to build affordable homes</a>. Land values <a href="https://www.henrygeorgefoundation.org/the-science-of-economics/a-savannah-story.html">belong</a> to the communities that create them. A way needs to be found of fixing the cost of land at a price that supports the delivery of affordable homes in rural locations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of stone village houses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582782/original/file-20240319-30-beu6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582782/original/file-20240319-30-beu6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582782/original/file-20240319-30-beu6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582782/original/file-20240319-30-beu6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582782/original/file-20240319-30-beu6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582782/original/file-20240319-30-beu6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582782/original/file-20240319-30-beu6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Houses in attractive villages across England are becoming investment opportunities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/a-stone-building-with-a-green-door-and-windows-XNKz57TDqVo">Lāsma Artmane|Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Upward pressure on land price</h2>
<p>Rural planning authorities largely operate according to the rationale that housing and service needs can more effectively be met in towns than in the countryside. They generally respond to increased housing demand in rural areas by allocating sites in service centres and larger towns for new development. They also fix policies in local plans that require the inclusion of affordable homes in market-led schemes. </p>
<p>Far less gets built in villages. There, the existing stock is gradually sold as investment opportunities to wealthier incomers or to seasonal and weekend residents. This dynamic places upward pressure on land prices. </p>
<p>In those few instances where sites for market development are allocated in smaller villages, land price soars. The resulting housing is high end and unaffordable to local people. </p>
<p>It is within this challenging market that <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/registered-providers-of-social-housing">registered providers of social housing</a> and <a href="https://www.communitylandtrusts.org.uk/">community land trusts</a>, formed by groups of concerned residents, try to secure affordable land for affordable housing through the so-called <a href="https://www.housing.org.uk/rural-exception-sites/">“rural exception site”</a> approach.</p>
<p>Since 1991, communities have been able to work with partners on securing exceptional planning permission for affordable homes on small parcels of unallocated land (sufficient for up to a dozen homes, depending on the scale of proven local need) on which permission for housing would not normally be granted.</p>
<p>Getting a landowner to accept that this is an “exception” to normal planning – and not a regular allocation – is a key hurdle. The landowner needs to agree to sell plots at a price that supports affordability.</p>
<h2>Affordable land supports affordable housing</h2>
<p>Since 2012, exception sites have been able to include market housing, whose role is to support project viability in a context of falling grant rates. Those grants are channelled to registered providers by <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/homes-england">Homes England</a>, a government agency sponsored by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities. Government has been targeting grant-free development, with the help of the market, although exception sites usually need some grants to achieve viability.</p>
<p>But the inclusion of market homes on rural exception sites comes at a cost. Landowners’ price expectations are raised, driving up the price paid for land, and meaning that an ever larger component of market housing is needed to cross-subsidise the affordable element. Bigger developments comprising more homes for sale, and relatively fewer affordable homes for local need, will not gain the same level of community support.</p>
<p>Threats to the viability of rural exception sites, largely because of rising land costs, means that communities stand to lose a critical source of affordable homes in otherwise unaffordable villages. The question is what can be done about this. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A view of fields and mountains." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582788/original/file-20240319-26-e34zz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582788/original/file-20240319-26-e34zz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582788/original/file-20240319-26-e34zz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582788/original/file-20240319-26-e34zz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582788/original/file-20240319-26-e34zz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582788/original/file-20240319-26-e34zz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582788/original/file-20240319-26-e34zz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agricultural land is valued significantly lower than full residential value.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/low-winter-sun-on-rural-hills-168107036">Mr Doomits|Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Raising grant rates would allow social housing providers (or taxpayers) to bear higher land costs. But our <a href="https://www.housing.org.uk/rural-exception-sites/">research</a> notes that this is unlikely to happen given public funding constraints and governments’ preference for market support. And in any case, the justice of such an approach (taxpayers effectively subsidising landowners’ rent extractions) is questionable. </p>
<p>A fairer approach would be to fix the cost of land at a price that supports a range of affordable housing types. That fix can be achieved by setting an advisory price for rural exception sites in <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65a11af7e8f5ec000f1f8c46/NPPF_December_2023.pdf">national planning policy</a> or, where an advisory price does not encourage sale, by using simplified and remodelled compulsory purchase powers to bring land into public ownership. Experience elsewhere in the UK shows that the prospect of compulsory purchase is often enough to encourage landowners to <a href="https://www.uclpress.co.uk/products/192317">sell</a>.</p>
<p>Our research has shown that the land price that typically supports affordability on rural exception sites is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374024892_Land_landowners_and_the_delivery_of_affordable_homes_in_rural_areas">£10,000 per plot</a>. Assuming a valuation density of 35 dwellings per hectare, this figure is far higher than agricultural value (£600 for a similarly-sized plot), but far lower than full residential value (£150,000, say, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/land-value-estimates-for-policy-appraisal-2019">in South Cambridgeshire</a>).</p>
<p>Some landowners will accept a price that supports affordability, motivated by a desire to help their communities. Others will resist sale at any price short of full residential value. Right now, however, too much is being left to the market. </p>
<p>Local authorities need the power to bring small plots of land into public ownership, quickly and at an affordable price. This would enable registered providers and community land trusts, and also local councils, to match their building programmes to the scale of need for rural housing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Gallent has received past research funding from charities and UKRI. He is a member of the RTPI, RICS, and a Trustee of the TCPA. </span></em></p>Rural planning authorities largely operate according to the rationale that housing and service needs can more effectively be met in towns than in the countryside.Nick Gallent, Professor of Housing and Planning, The Bartlett School of Planning, Faculty of the Built Environment, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259922024-03-19T14:03:12Z2024-03-19T14:03:12ZCocoa beans are in short supply: what this means for farmers, businesses and chocolate lovers<p><em>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/african-cocoa-plants-run-out-beans-global-chocolate-crisis-deepens-2024-03-13/">shortage</a> of cocoa beans has led to a near shutdown of processing plants in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, the two countries responsible for <a href="https://theconversation.com/cocoa-prices-are-surging-west-african-countries-should-seize-the-moment-to-negotiate-a-better-deal-for-farmers-214305">60% of global production</a>. With chocolate makers around the world reliant on west Africa for cocoa, there is significant concern about the impact on the prices of chocolate and the livelihood of farmers. Cocoa researcher Michael Odijie explains the reasons for the shortage.</em></p>
<h2>Why has cocoa production declined sharply in west Africa?</h2>
<p>Three factors are at play: environmental, economic cycle related and human. </p>
<p>One environmental factor is the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has caused drier weather in west Africa. It has contributed to problems on farms, such as the swollen shoot virus disease. As a result, Ghana has lost harvests from nearly <a href="https://thecocoapost.com/ghana-loses-over-500000-hectares-of-cocoa-farms-to-swollen-shoot-disease/">500,000 hectares</a> of land in recent years.</p>
<p>The economic cycle of cocoa production refers to the inherent patterns of expansion and contraction in cocoa farming. For example, as cocoa trees age, they become susceptible to diseases, requiring high maintenance costs. Historically, farmers have tended to abandon old farms and start anew in fresh forests. Unfortunately, finding new forests is now increasingly difficult. Perhaps the most severe issue of all is the lack of fair compensation for sustainable cocoa production</p>
<p>The human factor includes challenges such as illegal mining, which has overtaken numerous farms in Ghana. Sometimes, farmers lease their land to illegal miners in exchange for payment. These mining activities degrade the quality of the land, making it unsuitable for cocoa cultivation. </p>
<p>The global market for chocolate and chocolate products is on the <a href="https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/cocoa-and-chocolate-market-100075">rise</a>. It is projected to grow faster than <a href="https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/chocolate-market#:%7E:text=The%20global%20chocolate%20market%20size,key%20driver%20of%20the%20market.">4% annually</a> over the next few years. This growing demand for cocoa underscores the urgency in addressing the intertwined issues that relate to the industry’s sustainability.</p>
<h2>Have west African governments intervened to help cocoa farmers?</h2>
<p>In February 2024, the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod), regulator of the country’s cocoa sector, secured a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ghanas-cocobod-taps-200-mln-world-bank-loan-rebuild-disease-hit-cocoa-farms-2024-02-16/">World Bank loan</a> of US$200 million to rehabilitate plantations affected by the cocoa swollen shoot virus. The board will take over the disease-ridden farms, remove and replace the afflicted cocoa trees, and nurture the new plantings to the fruiting stage before returning them to the farmers.</p>
<p>This practice of Cocobod taking out loans to assist farmers is a longstanding one in Ghana. For instance, in 2018, Cocobod <a href="https://thecocoapost.com/cocobod-afdb-loan/">used part</a> of a $600 million loan from the African Development Bank to rehabilitate aging plantations and those hit by diseases. And at the start of the current harvest season in October, the <a href="https://www.cighci.org/ghana-announces-cocoa-producer-price-for-2023-24-crop-season/">producer price was raised</a>: farmers are paid more, a move made inevitable by the surge in global prices. Also, Ghana Cocobod has established a <a href="https://starrfm.com.gh/2024/03/cocobod-taskforce-arrests-illegal-mining-gang-leaders-in-atobrakrom/">task force</a> to shield cocoa farms from the harmful impacts of mining. It has cooperated with police to stem the smuggling of cocoa to neighbouring countries, particularly those that offer a stronger currency.</p>
<p>In Côte d'Ivoire, relatively little action has been taken. It appears the government is still assessing the situation. But there have been <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-02-16/ivory-coast-seizes-100-tons-of-cocoa-at-the-border-with-guinea">measures</a> to curb smuggling of cocoa, prompted by the fact that the shortage is driving up prices in neighbouring countries. Côte d'Ivoire does benefit from numerous sustainability programmes initiated by multinational corporations. The current shortage has accelerated these initiatives. Regrettably, some of the programmes do not disclose their data, making it difficult for academics to access and analyse their information.</p>
<p>African governments have yet to address significant structural issues in their interventions.</p>
<h2>How have cocoa farmers and cocoa-producing countries’ economies been affected?</h2>
<p>At the farm level, although the rise in prices may initially appear beneficial to farmers, the reality is not straightforward. A decrease in output leads to fewer harvests on average, which means that, overall, farmers are not earning more. This issue is compounded by recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghanas-economic-crisis-expert-insights-into-how-things-got-so-bad-and-what-the-fixes-are-193153">economic challenges in west Africa</a>, such as high inflation and currency devaluation, particularly in Ghana. These factors have resulted in farmers becoming poorer.</p>
<p>Another impact of the output decline is a reduction in local processing. Major African processing facilities in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana have either ceased operations or reduced their processing capacity because they cannot afford to purchase beans. This likely means that chocolate prices worldwide will surge. This, in turn, adversely affects the local production units that have been emerging in recent years. </p>
<p>However, the bargaining power of west African cocoa-producing countries seems to have increased. Now is an opportune moment for these nations to unite and negotiate more favourable terms for their cocoa farmers. </p>
<h2>Will chocolate makers eventually turn to cocoa alternatives?</h2>
<p>It’s inevitable because continuing to cultivate cocoa under current conditions is unsustainable. I don’t perceive this negatively; I hope it occurs sooner rather than later. In fact, it is already underway with the rise of cocoa butter equivalents, cocoa extenders and artificial flavours (synthetic or nature-identical flavours that mimic the taste of chocolate without the need for cocoa). </p>
<p>The German company Planet A Foods is a leader in this area. It produces cocoa-free chocolate, using technology to transform ingredients such as oats and sunflower seeds into substitutes for cocoa mass and butter. </p>
<p>Overall, this is beneficial for everyone. The demand for cocoa has <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-real-cost-of-your-chocolate-habit-new-research-reveals-the-bittersweet-truth-of-cocoa-farming-in-africas-forests-206082">resulted</a> in mass deforestation and significant carbon emissions, issues that are likely to worsen due to climate change. Moreover, the push for cultivation has led to various forms of labour abuses. Exploring cocoa alternatives is certainly part of the solution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E Odijie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Major African cocoa plants in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana have stopped or cut processing because they cannot afford to buy beans.Michael E Odijie, Research associate, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236062024-03-15T13:32:02Z2024-03-15T13:32:02ZChild health is in crisis in the UK – here’s what needs to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581689/original/file-20240313-18-eed233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3489%2C2331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hungry-child-big-clear-eyes-eating-210938179">Slava Samusevich/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/urgent-action-needed-on-failing-child-health">new report</a> from the Academy of Medical Sciences highlights the “appalling decline” in child health and a need for “urgent action”. In recent years, child vaccination rates have fallen well below World Health Organization target levels, creating a resurgence of outbreaks of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00265-8">serious disease</a> such as measles. </p>
<p>In England, more than one in five children are <a href="https://www.rcpch.ac.uk/news-events/news/rcpch-responds-latest-childhood-obesity-figures-england-202223">overweight or obese</a> by age five and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/oral-health-survey-of-5-year-old-children-2019">one in four</a> children have tooth decay. Demand for child mental health services <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/07/childrens-emergency-mental-health-referrals-in-england-soar-by-53">has surged</a>. Perhaps most worryingly, the rise in infant mortality means that UK is now <a href="https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/infant-mortality-rates.htm">ranked 30 out of 49</a> OECD countries – well behind other European countries except Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia.</p>
<p>One of the most important drivers of this crisis is the number of children in the UK living in extreme poverty, which <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/poverty-children-dwp-energy-bills-food-b2434506.html">tripled</a> between 2019-2022. </p>
<p>The early years, the period from pregnancy to the first five years of life, have historically been overlooked in research and policy. More recently, the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/605c5e61d3bf7f2f0d94183a/The_best_start_for_life_a_vision_for_the_1_001_critical_days.pdf">first 1,001 days</a> from conception to age two has been recognised as a critical period in which the building blocks for lifelong emotional and physical health are laid down.</p>
<p>Investing in the early years is one of the most important things we can do as a society to build a better future and promote the nation’s health, wellbeing and prosperity. There is clear evidence that such investment will be cost-effective in enabling future adults to live long and productive lives. </p>
<p>For example, data from the Royal Foundation and the London School of Economics has shown that the <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/qwnplnakca8g/2iLCWZESD2RLu24m443HUf/1c802df74c44ac6bc94d4338ff7ac53d/RFCEC_BCCS_Report_and_Appendices.pdf">cost to society</a> of addressing issues that might have been avoided through action in early childhood is more than £16 billion each year – <a href="https://centreforearlychildhood.org/report/#:%7E:text=This%20sum%20of%20%C2%A316.13,specialist%20perinatal%20mental%20health%20support.">nearly five times</a> the total annual spend in England on early education and childcare entitlements. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jhsfInLbbnM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>How to reverse the decline</h2>
<p>So what can be done to reverse these worrying trends? </p>
<p>The Academy of Medical Sciences’ report outlines several recommendations to improve the health and wellbeing of children in the UK and the adults they will become. </p>
<p>The first recommendation is to implement effective early years interventions. One example of such an intervention is the Family Nurse Partnership (FNP), an intensive early home visiting programme for first time teenage mothers. The FNP aims to improve birth outcomes, child health and development, and promote economic self-sufficiency among young mothers. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I recently <a href="https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/2/1/e000514">evaluated outcomes of 26,000 mothers</a> in England participating in the FNP from 2010-2019. We found some evidence to suggest that children born to mothers enrolled in FNP were more likely to achieve a good level of development at school entry (age five), supporting findings from a <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/2/e049960">previous trial</a>. Mothers were engaged in the programme, with the majority meeting fidelity targets (Figure 1). </p>
<p>However, in local areas where the FNP was offered, <a href="https://jech.bmj.com/content/76/12/991">only one in four mothers</a> are enrolled due to insufficient places on the programme. In areas with high numbers of teenage mothers, enrolment rates are even lower. More needs to be done to ensure that when interventions are implemented, they are offered to all those who could benefit from support. </p>
<p>A further recommendation is to address the decline in the child and family health workforce. Health visitors are trained nurses who are <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/960708/Commissioning_guide_2.pdf">uniquely placed</a> to influence and work with the whole family in the interests of children on social, psychological and health choices. Years of austerity, cuts and a depleted workforce have meant that since 2015, the health visiting workforce has <a href="https://ihv.org.uk/news-and-views/news/health-visitor-workforce-numbers-in-england-reach-an-all-time-low/">decreased by 37%</a> (from 11,193 to 7,030 in 2022). </p>
<p>The real term value of the public health grant from which health visiting is commissioned <a href="https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/public-health-grant-what-it-is-and-why-greater-investment-is-needed">has fallen by 27%</a>. In the context of this disinvestment, there is huge variation in how local areas are delivering their services. For example, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35193912/">our research</a> has shown that the number of children receiving their (mandated) 2 to 2½-year review ranges between 33%-97% depending on in which area they live (Figure 2).</p>
<p>Investment in targeted interventions and universal services in the early years is key to supporting the health and development of children and the wellbeing of their families in the critical period before school. </p>
<h2>Children need joined-up thinking</h2>
<p>However, such interventions and policies should be underpinned by high-quality research and evaluation. We need to consider the wider determinants of health and wellbeing across the lifecourse, such as education, social care income, criminal justice and the environment, to support a more joined up and cross-government approach to improving outcomes. </p>
<p>Historically, linking cross-sectoral data in this way has been challenging. However, there is promising progress in this area. One example of this is <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/child-health/echild">Echild</a>, a national resource linking together data from hospitals, schools and social care for 20 million children in England and their mothers (Figure 3). </p>
<p>This unique data set represents a significant step towards a more holistic approach to understanding the <a href="https://www.adruk.org/news-publications/news-blogs/how-administrative-data-can-uncover-the-relationship-between-childrens-health-and-education/">many factors influencing child wellbeing</a>, including maternal mental health, childhood chronic conditions and school absences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Harron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Children are bearing the brunt of austerity. From obesity to infant mortality, child health is affected by sustained under-investment. What can be done to reverse the decline?Katie Harron, Professor of Statistics and Health Data Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249122024-03-13T12:28:23Z2024-03-13T12:28:23ZWhy Biden is investing in influencers to help with this year’s election<p>Move over Taylor Swift. You’re not the only one with crowds of worshipping fans who can <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-maher-taylor-swift-biden-trump-presidential-election-super-bowl-2024-2">tip the 2024 election</a>. </p>
<p>Mega-celebrities like singers, athletes and Hollywood stars get the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jleo/article-abstract/29/2/355/914869">bulk of the attention</a> when it comes to their coveted political endorsements. But this year, it’s the online influencers who candidates, including President Joe Biden, are increasingly looking to court. </p>
<p>Social media personalities on platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram boast hundreds of thousands, and sometimes millions, of followers. These content creators <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8872418/">bankroll their curated lifestyles</a> by marketing everything from lipstick to watches. </p>
<p>The appeal of these influencers in the political sphere is obvious. Many have built up <a href="http://www.promotionalcommunications.org/index.php/pc/article/view/136">vast, admiring audiences</a>. They’ve developed close, intimate relationships that can be leveraged. Their word means something to their followers, whether that’s promoting a L'Oreal eyeliner, or a presidential ticket. </p>
<p>If <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/04/youre-about-spend-so-much-money-instagram/588373/#:%7E:text=The%20platform%20is%20allowing%20influencers,users%20directly%20through%20their%20posts.&text=Ever%20since%20Instagram%20first%20allowed,are%20getting%20their%20product%20recommendations.">“Instagram is the new mall”</a>, it might soon also be the new epicentre of political campaigning, particularly because influencers have a lot of credibility with young people. And, Biden needs young voters to turn out for him, particularly as polling suggests that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/">young Republicans</a> may be more enthusiastic about Trump than young Democrats about Biden. </p>
<p>Biden recently <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7fb6177c-30b7-4f30-b7ac-de89398ea350">rolled out the red carpet</a> at the White House for hundreds of influencers including actor Kalen Allen and artist Devon Rodriguez, hoping to persuade them to join his cadre of digital assets. Rodriguez has 9 million Instagram followers and Allen 2 million. Trump, too, has been cosy with conservative influencers <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-hosts-conservative-influencers-libs-tik-tok-babylon-bee-dinner-rcna67396">such as the head of “Libs of Tik Tok”</a> and Seth Dillon of Babylon Bee, a Christian news satire website.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee has constructed an online organising hub that reporter Makena Kelly <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/9/23298040/dnc-democrats-midterms-elections-tiktok-instagram-influencers">has described as</a> a “destination for influencers, surrogates, and supporters to receive party-sponsored talking points, messaging, and a wide variety of digital content to post on their own social media feeds”.</p>
<p>There are reports that the influential <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/01/biden-campaign-social-media-influencers-00136389">Democrat political action committee (Pac) Priorities USA</a> is paying US$1 million (£782,000) to around 150 influencers to encourage the publishing of pro-Biden posts. Pacs raise money for candidates independent of official campaigns and then spend cash to bolster their preferred candidates. </p>
<p>The rise of influencers in American politics marks the latest evolution in a stream of technological innovations adapted by candidates, from Barack Obama’s early embrace of the internet <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/nov/07/barackobama-uselections2008">and Facebook</a> in 2008 to Trump’s unvarished, shoot-from-the-hip <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-twitter-use-campaign-2016.html">communication on Twitter</a> in 2016.</p>
<p>Influencers, however, largely promise to be more subtle, more discreet, and more subliminal than conventional actors involved in electioneering. In fact, trend forecasters have suggested that not being in-your-face and overtly partisan can be the key to perceived <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2021/aug/12/being-too-aspirational-is-repellent-now-the-rise-of-the-genuinfluencers">“genuineness”</a>. </p>
<p>A Biden-Harris bumper sticker that “just happens” to find its way into the backdrop of a YouTube clip touting the health benefits of kale smoothies. An “off the cuff” reference to Trump’s plans to strip abortion rights amid a product review for the latest Chanel handbag. It’s not just about parroting back formal campaign slogans. </p>
<h2>Issues with influencers</h2>
<p>The use of influencers in politics raises big legal, ethical and policy quandaries. </p>
<p>Influencers are generally <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/plain-language/1001a-influencer-guide-508_1.pdf">required</a> by the US Federal Trade Commission to disclose any sponsorships and financial gain from sales. Yet the legal landscape surrounding political influencers is still inchoate, and many critics say that politicians and Pacs exploit influencers to circumvent campaign finance laws. </p>
<p>The US Federal Election Commission has <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/3881167-will-the-fec-finally-rein-in-political-influencers-on-social-media/">failed to offer regulatory clarity</a> regarding the rules that apply to influencers in campaigns. Additionally, while some social media companies like Facebook actually <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-socialmedia-sponsored/from-facebook-to-tiktok-u-s-political-influencers-are-paid-for-posts-idUSKBN27E1T9/">paused political ads</a> in the days immediately preceding the 2020 election, influencers were left untouched. </p>
<p>The possible problems don’t stop there. </p>
<p>Communications researchers Katie Joseff and Samuel C. Woolley, for example, have <a href="https://mediaengagement.org/research/social-media-influencers-and-the-2020-election/">argued</a> that the hiring of influencers in politics “amounts to a new and growing form of ‘inorganic’ information operations — elite-dictated propaganda through trusted social media spokespersons”.</p>
<p>Even worse, they say, top-down “propaganda from influencers are better able to evade detection systems built to detect political bots and sockpuppets and to defy regulators concerned with digital free speech”. </p>
<p>There’s <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.2.211">no shortage of consternation</a> about foreign nations and organisations, especially the Kremlin, wielding disinformation to meddle in US elections. While domestic influencers may not have nefarious aims, social media followers may be impressionable in thinking political endorsements are authentic. </p>
<p>The desire to court influencers might even distort public policy. As writer Katie Harbath has <a href="https://anchorchange.substack.com/p/will-2024-be-the-influencer-election">observed</a>, when it comes to debates like whether to ban TikTok over privacy or national security concerns: “Democrats are in a tricky spot because they want access to the younger user base that the app has but also recognise the challenges with the app.”</p>
<h2>Can influencers swing elections?</h2>
<p>If the name “influencer” implies anything, the answer is yes — at least on the margins. While rigorous, experimental evidence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20563051231177938">is hard to come by</a>, and the trend in politics is relatively new, it’s clear that Americans who increasingly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/15/news-trends-social/">get much of their news from digital sources</a> are <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-social-media-makes-us-more-polarized-and-how-to-fix-it/">shaped by online content</a>. </p>
<p>People First, a firm that specialises in influencer partnerships, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/elections/influencers-political-ads-tiktok-instagram.html">has found</a>, for example, that more than 40% of people surveyed “trusted influencers more than political campaigns themselves”. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, influencers are likely to disproportionately sway <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/85/2/725/6294224?redirectedFrom=fulltext">youth voters, who tend to lean Democrat</a>. Gen-Z and young millenial voters could turn out at higher rates as a result. </p>
<p>In a 2024 election that’s likely to be decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states, influencers could be influential. Biden, especially, can’t afford to lose the youth vote that supported <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/">Democrats at high rates in the 2022 midterms</a>. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theorists who think that Taylor Swift is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/02/taylor-swift-kelce-conspiracy-tariffs-immigration/">CIA asset aiming to upend American politics</a> are looking in the wrong place. For evidence of a more disruptive (and, potentially corruptible) form of politics, they need only fire up social media.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling suggests young Republicans may be more enthusiastic about Trump, than young Democrats are about Biden.Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254752024-03-13T06:19:20Z2024-03-13T06:19:20ZRedwood trees are growing almost as fast in the UK as their Californian cousins – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581046/original/file-20240311-22-169fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C23%2C3870%2C2560&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sequoias-73346425">Galyna Andrushko/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What can <a href="https://plants.ces.ncsu.edu/plants/sequoiadendron-giganteum/">live for over 3,000 years</a>, weigh over 150 tonnes and could be sitting almost unnoticed in your <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/visiting-woods/woods/havering-county-park/">local park</a>? Giant sequoias (known as giant redwoods in the UK) are among the tallest and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/redw/planyourvisit/upload/ThreeTrees-2014-508.pdf">heaviest</a> organisms that have ever lived on Earth, not to mention they have the potential to <a href="https://www.nps.gov/parkhistory/online_books/shirley/sec11.htm#:%7E:text=Sierra%20Redwood%E2%80%94the%20world's%20oldest,oldest%20living%20things%20in%20existence">live longer</a> than other species.</p>
<p>My team’s <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.230603">new study</a>
is the first to look at the growth of giant sequoias in the UK – and they seem to be doing remarkably well. Trees at two of the three sites we studied matched the <a href="https://arboretum.ucdavis.edu/sites/g/files/dgvnsk1546/files/inline-files/redwood_exhibits_0.pdf">average growth rates</a> of their counterparts in the US, where they come from. These remarkable trees are being planted in an effort to help absorb carbon, but perhaps more importantly they are becoming a striking and much-admired part of the UK landscape.</p>
<p>To live so long, giant sequoias have evolved to be extraordinarily resilient. In their <a href="https://www.visitsequoia.com/explore/spring-summer-fall-activities/redwoods-and-sequoias">native northern California</a>, they occupy an ecological niche in mountainous terrain 1400 – 2100 metres above sea level. </p>
<p>Their <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/x94-092">thick spongy bark</a> insulates against fire and disease and they can survive severe winters and arid summers. Despite these challenges these trees <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005546">absorb and store</a> CO₂ faster and in greater quantities than almost any other in the world, storing up to five times more carbon per hectare than even tropical rainforests. However, the changing climate means Californian giant sequoias <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/giant-sequoias-face-new-threats.htm">are under threat</a> from more frequent and extreme droughts and fires. More than 10% of the remaining population of around 80,000 wild trees were killed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/02/sequoias-destroyed-california-castle-fire">in a single fire</a> in 2020 alone.</p>
<h2>Tree giants from the US</h2>
<p>What is much less well-known is that there are an estimated <a href="https://www.forestryengland.uk/news/over-half-million-natures-giants-the-nations-forests#:%7E:text=With%20now%20over%20half%20a,species'%20long%2Dterm%20survival.">half a million sequoias</a> (wild and planted) in England, dotted across the landscape. So how well are the UK giant sequoias doing? To try and answer this, my team used a technique called <a href="https://info.vercator.com/blog/3-types-of-terrestrial-laser-scanners">terrestrial laser scanning</a> to measure the size and volume of giant sequoias. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman carrying baby stands next to base of giant trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581048/original/file-20240311-26-c1fdtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581048/original/file-20240311-26-c1fdtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581048/original/file-20240311-26-c1fdtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581048/original/file-20240311-26-c1fdtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581048/original/file-20240311-26-c1fdtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581048/original/file-20240311-26-c1fdtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581048/original/file-20240311-26-c1fdtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sequoia national park in California, USA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mother-infant-visit-sequoia-national-park-1175764084">My Good Images/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The laser sends out half a million pulses a second and if a pulse hits a tree, the 3D location of each “hit” is recorded precisely. This gives us a map of tree structure in unprecedented detail, which we can use to estimate volume and mass, effectively allowing us to estimate the tree’s weight. If we know how old the trees are, we can estimate how fast they are growing and accumulating carbon.</p>
<p>As part of a Master’s project with former student Ross Holland, and along with colleagues at Kew Royal Botanical Gardens, we measured giant sequoias across three sites - <a href="https://www.rbge.org.uk/visit/benmore-botanic-garden/">Benmore botanical gardens</a> in Scotland, <a href="https://www.kew.org/wakehurst">Kew Wakehurst</a> in Sussex and <a href="https://www.havering.gov.uk/info/20037/parks/723/havering_country_park">Havering Country Park</a> in Essex. These sites span the wettest (Benmore) and driest (Havering) climates in the UK, enabling us to assess how rainfall affects growth. </p>
<p>The fastest-growing trees we measured are growing almost as fast as they do in California, adding 70cm of height and storing 160kg of carbon per year, about twice that of a <a href="https://onetreeplanted.org/blogs/stories/how-much-co2-does-tree-absorb">native UK oak</a>. The trees at Benmore are already among the tallest trees in the UK at 55 metres, the current record-holder being a <a href="https://www.outdoorlook.co.uk/blog/post/record-breaking-tall-trees-in-the-uk">66 metre Douglas Fir</a> in Scotland. The redwoods, being faster growing, are likely to take that title in the next decade or two. And these trees are “only” around 170 years old. No native tree in the UK is taller than about 47 metres. We also found significant differences in growth rates across the UK. They grow fastest in the north where the climate is wetter.</p>
<p>So how did these trees get here? <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jhc/article/35/2/347/6651665">Exotic plant collecting</a> was big business in the 18th and 19th centuries, in large part as a display of wealth and taste. Giant sequoias were first introduced in 1853 by Scottish grain merchant and keen amateur collector <a href="https://www.giant-sequoia.com/gallery/scotland/">Patrick Matthew</a>, who gave them to friends. Later that same year commercial nurseryman <a href="https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/discover/nature/trees-plants/how-the-giant-sequoia-came-to-england">William Lobb</a> brought many more from California, along with accounts of the giant trees from which they came. </p>
<p>Giant sequoias quickly became a sensation and were planted to create imposing avenues, at the entrances of grand houses and estates, in churchyards, parks and botanic gardens. The letters about these trees helps us to accurately age planted trees, enabling us to calculate their growth rates. </p>
<p>Normally, you need to take samples <a href="https://www.nature.scot/sites/default/files/2018-09/Publication%202018%20-%20SNH%20Research%20Report%20789%20-%20A%20review%20of%20the%20theory%20and%20practice%20of%20tree%20coring%20on%20live%20ancient%20and%20veteran%20trees.pdf">from a tree’s core</a> to get an accurate age estimate but that can damage the tree. </p>
<h2>Imagine their potential</h2>
<p>UK sequoias are unlikely to grow as tall as their Californian counterparts, which tend to grow in forests, due to lightning strikes and high winds – always a risk when you’re the tallest thing in the landscape rather than one among many. More recently, there has been a <a href="https://press.royalsociety.org/Uploads/RSOS230603_Proof.pdf">resurgence in planting</a> giant sequoias in the UK, particularly <a href="https://news.hackney.gov.uk/hackney-plants-70-trees-to-commemorate-70th-day-of-the-70th-year-of-the-queens-reign/#:%7E:text=Hackney%20has%20planted%2070%20sequoia,the%20borough's%20Platinum%20Jubilee%20celebrations.">in urban settings</a>. This is because of their carbon storage potential and perhaps because people seem to <a href="https://press.royalsociety.org/Uploads/RSOS230603_Proof.pdf">really like them</a>. </p>
<p>We urgently need to understand how UK trees will fare in the face of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67845671">much hotter, drier summers</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/storm-ciaran-is-breaking-records-and-research-suggests-more-severe-weather-in-future-216842">stormier winters</a> and with <a href="https://nationalemergenciestrust.org.uk/wildfires-growing-risk/">increased risks of fire</a>. Global trade is also increasing <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-021-00639-z#:%7E:text=The%20economic%20and%20environmental%20threats,in%20recent%20years96%2C97.">the spread of disease</a> among plantlife. More work is needed to consider the impact of planting non-native species like giant sequoias on native habitats and biodiversity but our work has shown that they are apparently very happy with our climate, so far. </p>
<p>More importantly, we have to remember that trees are more than just stores of carbon. If we value trees only as carbon sticks we will end up with thousands of hectares of monoculture, which isn’t good for nature. </p>
<p>But these giant sequoias are here to stay and are becoming a beautiful and resilient part of our landscape. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225475/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mathias Disney receives funding from UKRI via NERC, the National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), European Space Agency, NASA and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.</span></em></p>Their incredible resilience means they are becoming part of the UK landscape.Mathias Disney, Reader in Remote Sensing, Department of Geography, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254932024-03-12T19:00:38Z2024-03-12T19:00:38ZWhat the Anthropocene’s critics overlook – and why it really should be a new geological epoch<p>Geologists on an international subcommission recently <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00675-8">voted down a proposal</a> to formally recognise that we have entered the Anthropocene, a new geological epoch representing the time when massive, unrelenting human impacts began to overwhelm the Earth’s regulatory systems. </p>
<p>A new epoch needs a start date. The geologists were therefore asked to vote on a proposal to mark the beginning of the Anthropocene using a sharp increase in plutonium traces found in sediment at the bottom of an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/crawford-lake-anthropocene-1.6902999">unusually undisturbed lake in Canada</a>, which aligned with many other markers of human impacts. </p>
<p>The entire process was <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00675-8">controversial</a> and the two us who are on the subcommission (chair Jan Zalasiewicz and vice-chair Martin Head) even <a href="https://www-riffreporter-de.translate.goog/de/wissen/streit-um-das-anthropozaen-fuehrender-forscher-haelt-abstimmung-fuer-ungueltig?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true">refused to cast a vote</a> as we did not want to legitimise it. In any case, the proposal ran into opposition from longstanding members.</p>
<p>Why this opposition? Many geologists, used to working with millions of years, find it hard to accept an epoch just seven decades long – that’s just one human lifetime. Yet the evidence suggests that the Anthropocene is very real. </p>
<p>Environmental scientist Erle Ellis was one critic who welcomed the decision, stating in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anthropocene-is-not-an-epoch-but-the-age-of-humans-is-most-definitely-underway-224495">The Conversation</a>: “If there is one main reason why geologists rejected this proposal, it is because its recent date and shallow depth are too narrow to encompass the deeper evidence of human-caused planetary change.”</p>
<p>It’s an oft-repeated argument. But it completely misses the point. When Paul Crutzen first proposed the term Anthropocene in a moment of insight at a scientific meeting in 2000, it was not from realisation that humans have been altering the functioning and geological record of the Earth, or to capture all their impacts under one umbrella term. He and his colleagues were perfectly aware that humans had been doing that for millennia. That’s nothing new.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/415023a">Crutzen’s insight</a> was wholly different. He said that the Earth system – that is, the really fundamental things like atmospheric composition, climate, all ecosystems – had recently sharply departed from the stability that they had shown for thousands of years during the Holocene epoch, a stability which allowed human civilisation to grow and flourish. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Huge cloud above city coming from large industrial chimney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581347/original/file-20240312-24-8p7qxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Humans have destabilised the Earth system in many ways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">mykhailo pavlenko / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It makes no sense, Crutzen said, to use the Holocene for present time. He conceived the Anthropocene as the time when human impacts intensified, suddenly, dramatically, enough to push the Earth into a new state. The science journalist Andrew Revkin (who thought up the name “Anthrocene” even before Crutzen’s inspiration) aptly called it the “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/04/great-debate-over-when-anthropocene-started/587194/">big zoom</a>”.</p>
<h2>Flesh on bones</h2>
<p>We’re part of the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">Anthropocene Working Group (AWG)</a> that has been gathering evidence to put geological flesh on the bones of Crutzen’s concept. The AWG had a mandate: to assess the Anthropocene as a potential geological time unit during which “human modification of natural systems has become predominant”. Thus, not just any impact but a decisive one. </p>
<p>There’s now no doubt about this decisive change – nor that it has left <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20530196221136422">sufficient marks in recent geological layers</a> to justify the description of the Anthropocene as a geological time unit (for such a unit must be able to be read in layers of rock millions of years from now, and not just sensed as a change in conditions). These layers abound in fallout from nuclear bomb tests, microplastics, pesticides, <a href="https://neilr053.wixsite.com/gloscape">fly ash</a>, the shells of invasive species and much else.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dawn-of-the-anthropocene-five-ways-we-know-humans-have-triggered-a-new-geological-epoch-52867">Dawn of the Anthropocene: five ways we know humans have triggered a new geological epoch</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But how can one show the difference between Crutzen’s idea and the “age of humans” Ellis wrote about, which he, with others, has proposed to call an “<a href="https://doi.org/10.18814/epiiugs/2021/021029">Anthropocene event</a>” extending over 50,000 years or more? We can use the very diagram they used:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How various human activities have affected the planet over the millennia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">Philip Gibbard, et al., 2022</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s a nicely laid out, easy-to-understand picture that summarises the changes caused by human activity over the last million years. All these things certainly happened. But what is lost here is any sense of the quantified rate and magnitude of change, other than by a little shading. Looking at it, you’d wonder what the fuss was all about.</p>
<p>That’s because there’s no Y-axis (the vertical one). It only has the X-axis, that of time. The Y-axis is what scientists use to show the magnitude of measurements such as temperature and mass. It’s absolutely crucial to get an objective, number-based understanding of <a href="https://www.episodes.org/journal/view.html?doi=10.18814/epiiugs/2022/022025">what really is happening</a>.</p>
<p>Now let’s see how things look when a Y-axis is added. This just shows the last 30,000 years, that includes all the Holocene, but doesn’t use a logarithmic scale (that is, it doesn’t squash up the big numbers) so it more clearly shows how things relate to time.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphs showing greenhouse gas and temperature change over last 30,000 years" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581344/original/file-20240312-22-ieabja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global atmospheric concentrations from ice core records of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) and global temperature over the past 30,000 years. There is a sharp, unprecedented uptick in values in the Anthropocene.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.18814/epiiugs/2023/023025">Adapted from Zalasiewicz et al al (2024)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The speed and magnitude of recent change jumps out at you. The sharp upturns are essentially Crutzen’s Anthropocene, representing the last 72 years of what has been called the “<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019614564785">great acceleration</a>” of population, consumption, industrialisation, technical innovation and globalisation (a more detailed way of expressing the “big zoom”). </p>
<p>Similar graphs can be drawn for species extinction and invasion rates, or the production and spread of fly ash, concrete, plastics, and a host of other things. They show that Crutzen’s Anthropocene is real, evidence based, and represents an epoch-scale change (at least). The significance for us all, of course, is that the near-vertical recent trends in these graphs are still, for the most part, rising, zooming us into a new kind of planet. The repercussions cannot fail to last for many thousands of years – and some will change the Earth for ever.</p>
<h2>Epoch vs event</h2>
<p>So the Anthropocene as an epoch is very different from the “event” of Erle Ellis and others, which encapsulates all human influence on the planet (and so is about a thousand times longer than the epoch, and differs in many other ways). They’re both valid concepts of course, and have some overlap, just like a mouse in some ways overlaps with a blue whale (they’re both mammals, and share a good deal of their genetic code). But they’re different. </p>
<p>It’s absurd, therefore, to give them the same name: to take Crutzen’s term and appropriate it for a wholly different purpose, and in doing so obscuring the real meaning of his insight and its significance. Under a different name (the Anthropolithic, perhaps?), it could perfectly well complement an Anthropocene epoch.</p>
<p>Humans have had a long and complex impact on the planet, true. For almost all that time, they left their marks on Earth – but did not utterly overwhelm it. Less than a century ago, processes that began during the Industrial Revolution swung into overdrive. That’s the Anthropocene as an epoch. It’s real, it’s already made geology, and it won’t go away. Best to acknowledge it, to help us cope with its consequences. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Turner is Secretary of the Anthropocene Working Group.
Simon Turner received funding (2020-2023) from Haus der Kulturen der Welt (HKW, Berlin) as Scientific Coordinator for 'Evidence & Experiment' and 'Anthropocene Curriculum' programmes (<a href="https://www.anthropocene-curriculum.org">https://www.anthropocene-curriculum.org</a>). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Waters is Chair of the Anthropocene Working Group. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Zalasiewicz is affiliated with Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy (Chair) and
Anthropocene Working Group. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Head is part of the Anthropocene Working Group and the Quaternary Subcommission.</span></em></p>Geologists recently voted down a proposal to formally recognise the Anthropocene.Simon Turner, Senior Research Fellow in Geography, UCLColin Waters, Honorary Professor, Department of Geology, University of LeicesterJan Zalasiewicz, Professor of Palaeobiology, University of LeicesterMartin J. Head, Professor of Earth Sciences, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209562024-03-08T17:30:05Z2024-03-08T17:30:05ZThe Turing scheme was supposed to help more disadvantaged UK students study abroad – but they may still be losing out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578679/original/file-20240228-8828-vvwi2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C25%2C2871%2C1888&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/youth-group-vacation-travel-city-329701265">Kichigin/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The loss of access for UK university students to the Erasmus+ scheme – a Europe-wide exchange programme that offers students the opportunity and funding to study or work abroad for up to a year – was a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/29/world/europe/brexit-erasmus-uk-eu.html">widely mourned</a> consequence of Brexit. </p>
<p>The UK government announced a replacement, the <a href="https://www.turing-scheme.org.uk/">Turing scheme</a>, in December 2020. This scheme funds education or training placements outside the UK – in theory, anywhere in the world. Unlike Erasmus+, though, it is not a reciprocal exchange scheme. It does not fund overseas students coming to the UK. </p>
<p>The first students took part in the academic year 2021-22, and the government published <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/turing-scheme-evaluation-of-year-1">an evaluation</a> of the first year the scheme in January 2024. It shows that while most student participants reported a positive experience, both the length of placements and the timeline of the application process may have penalised students from less well-off backgrounds. </p>
<p>When the UK government launched the Turing scheme, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10734-023-00995-0">widening participation</a> – making study abroad accessible to a more diverse group of students – was a <a href="https://bera-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/berj.3844">key objective</a>. The scheme was compared directly to Erasmus+ in this regard: it was argued by the UK government when they <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10734-023-00995-0">launched the scheme</a> that Erasmus+ had largely failed to attract more disadvantaged students. </p>
<p>According to the report, around 39% of Turing participants were from disadvantaged backgrounds. Directly comparable figures for Erasmus+ are difficult to attain, although there is a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0958928719899339#body-ref-bibr6-0958928719899339">widely held consensus</a> that the uptake of Erasmus+ placements by more disadvantaged young people was low.</p>
<p>A report by the <a href="https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publications/turing-scheme-understanding-impacts-and-implications/">British Academy</a>, published in November 2023, notes that significantly more students participated in the Turing scheme in 2021-2022 than had taken Erasmus+ placements each year. This may suggest some success in meeting the government’s widening participation objectives. </p>
<p>However, this report also observed that those from disadvantaged backgrounds in 2021-2022 received less funding from the Turing scheme average monthly stipend than they would have under Erasmus+. </p>
<p>What’s more, the application timeframe for the Turing scheme may have limited the ability of students from poorer backgrounds to take part. </p>
<p>The government’s report shows that students did not hear back about whether their applications for the Turing scheme and its associated funding had been successful until July. Many overseas placements required students to be in place by August, for the start of their academic year – less than a month later. Even those students starting their placement in September needed confirmation of funding before July. </p>
<p>This affected students from less affluent backgrounds, whose participation was wholly dependent on Turing funding. Some who could not afford upfront costs without the funding, or could not take the risk that funding would not be granted, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6583029523b70a0013234d29/Turing_Scheme_year_1_evaluation.pdf">dropped out</a> of the scheme. </p>
<h2>Shorter stays</h2>
<p>The government’s new evaluation provides a useful profile of participants on the scheme during its first year. It shows that 67% were studying, while 33% were on work placements. Europe and North America were the most common destinations. </p>
<p>The length of the placement varied considerably. University students’ Turing placements lasted 109 days, on average. Students at further education and vocational education colleges, and school students, were also eligible for the scheme, but their placements were much shorter: an average of 26 days for college students and only seven days for school pupils. </p>
<p>Students at further education and vocational institutions are likely to be <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-attainment-in-the-fe-and-adult-learning-sector/improving-attainment-among-disadvantaged-students-in-the-fe-and-adult-learning-sector-evidence-review-html#:%7E:text=Individuals%20from%20disadvantaged%20backgrounds%20are,to%20other%20post%2D16%20routes">less privileged</a> than those at universities. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/sites/default/files/field/downloads/2021-07/widening-participation-in-uk-outward-student-mobility.pdf">Research has suggested</a> that disadvantaged students are more likely to take shorter trips than longer stays. But shorter placements may not be as <a href="https://bera-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/berj.3844">valuable to students</a> as longer ones. </p>
<p>Length of placement <a href="https://bera-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/berj.3844">has been linked</a> to a better quality and value of experience, meaning that further education and vocational students may be further disadvantaged by the shorter placements on offer to them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1762070001291604228"}"></div></p>
<h2>Difficult process</h2>
<p>The government’s report on the first year of the scheme noted that 79% of universities had found the application process difficult, compared to the more straightforward Erasmus application. </p>
<p>They also reported that the timescale for submitting the application was too short. The short timeframe prevented institutions from thinking innovatively about international placements. </p>
<p>Most fell back on what one described as “business as usual”. This presumably indicates that universities, colleges and schools made use of pre-existing relationships with overseas institutions rather than seeking new ones. </p>
<p>Despite apparent difficulties with the application process, 86% of providers reapplied in the second year of the scheme.</p>
<p>These administrative issues may, over time, be ironed out with adjustments to the application process. However, more fundamentally, some universities expressed concerns about the lack of reciprocity under the Turing scheme. This may provoke questions about the sustainability of relationships with other institutions that are not reciprocal. </p>
<p>It also has potential <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/psp.2727">geopolitical ramifications</a>. The UK may appear insular, unwelcoming and uninterested in fostering two-way and meaningful international relationships through the scheme. </p>
<p>What’s more, making students wait for funding outcomes is likely to put off less privileged students. This means that the actual impact of the Turing scheme on social mobility in the longer term, remains uncertain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220956/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johanna L. Waters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The application timeframe for the scheme may have limited the ability of students from poorer backgrounds to take part.Johanna L. Waters, Professor of Human Geography, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252922024-03-08T11:34:27Z2024-03-08T11:34:27ZFlight MH370 is still missing after ten years – forensic experts explain what we know and why we haven’t found the plane<p>It has been ten years since Malaysian airlines flight MH370, carrying 239 passengers and crew on board, disappeared less than one hour after taking off from Kuala Lumpur on 8 March 2014. It has become one of the great unsolved mysteries of modern times and is a puzzle that has remained resolutely unsolved. </p>
<p>Theories abound on the flight’s disappearance and current location of the wreckage. Unusually, all communications aboard the plane were switched off shortly after take-off. </p>
<p>Intermittent satellite location information subsequently suggested <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2014/06/inmarsat-releases-data-showing-mh370-definitely-went-south.html">it was flown south on a very different flight path</a> than expected, to a remote and deep ocean area of the Southern Indian Ocean before contact was lost.</p>
<p>When actively searching for MH370, sophisticated international surveillance aircraft initially conducted over 300 flights to visually look for plane debris on the surface. Then surface and submersible vehicles conducted further surveys, searching over 120,000 sq km of ocean before ending the search in 2017. </p>
<p>The effort to find MH370 became one of the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10863605/MH370-search-becomes-most-expensive-aviation-hunt-in-history-yet-still-no-clues.html">most expensive aviation searches in history</a>. These surveys used both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonar">sonar</a> (active acoustic instruments to image the sea floor to locate the aircraft), and also listening devices to pick up the aircraft’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_recorder">flight data recorder</a>. </p>
<p>Confirmed MH370 plane debris were found on Reunion Island in July 2015, and off the coast of Mozambique in February 2016, which was consistent with what we know about ocean currents. In 2018, OceanInfinity, a private exploration company, <a href="https://oceaninfinity.com/ocean-infinity-to-continue-search-for-missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370/">also searched 25,000 sq km</a> but without success.</p>
<p>Since then, a mixture of highly trained experts and members of the public have sought to assist the <a href="https://www.mh370search.com/">search</a>. These efforts have varied from simple to really advanced data analysis. They have attempted to map the locations and timings of plane debris, and other maritime debris, as well as model drift currents. In doing so, they are attempting to reconstruct where these may have originated from, which is no small task. </p>
<p>Analysis of the MH370 flight path has been pieced together from two different types of radar – primary and secondary – as well as the intermittent data “pings” from the plane to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inmarsat">Inmarsat</a> satellite. The results suggest that it <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27870467">diverted south from its intended flight path</a>.</p>
<p>Another technique called weak signal propagation (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software)">WSPR</a> data (a way of using radio emission to track objects such as planes), had defined a specific but very large search area, some of which has already been searched.</p>
<p>Available hydroacoustic data (based on the way sound propagates in water) of the sea floor has also been analysed. However, only a relatively small area was covered and the marine sea floor in this region can be very rugged. There are deep <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S007966112200163X">submarine canyons</a> that can hide objects much bigger than a plane. </p>
<p>Lessons from studying past flight disasters also informed the search. These included the 2009 Yemenia plane crash in the Indian Ocean.</p>
<h2>Recovery operation</h2>
<p>For inland or coastal water searches, a phased investigation strategy is suggested as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.04.012">best practice</a>, where investigators look to identify water depths, major current strengths and directions, together with pre-existing site information, before specialist search teams are employed using methods, equipment configurations and personnel that have all been accredited.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-science-is-helping-the-police-search-for-bodies-in-water-73931">How science is helping the police search for bodies in water</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However this reliance on technology can be problematic. Even in small waterways, the presence of vegetation in the search area or a target buried by sediment can make these searches difficult.</p>
<p>Much of the Southern Indian Ocean sea floor is rugged and relatively unmapped, with <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/news/deepest-points-of-the-indian-ocean-and-southern-ocean-revealed/">water depths of up to 7.4km</a>. It’s away from regular shipping lanes and commercial flight patterns, with few fishing boats, no significant land masses and some of the worst winds and weather in the world. These factors also make it a very challenging area to search. </p>
<p>In deep water (more than 2km to 3km) deploying sonar is cumbersome and prohibitively expensive. It also takes a long time to generate data. A major challenge for scanning technologies is achieving accuracy at these kinds of depths due to the scattering of the signal caused by uneven, especially rocky substrates on the sea floor.</p>
<p>The development of more advanced autonomous submersible vehicles may hold the
key to finding MH370 in the Southern Indian Ocean, along with post-processing of
raw data which can clarify what can be attributed to rocks as well as sea-floor
hummocks and pockets. </p>
<p>This can distinguish between the sea floor and the objects being searched for. However, the area where MH370 disappeared is vast, meaning future searches will remain just as challenging as when the plane first went missing in 2014.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pringle receives funding from the HLF, the Nuffield Foundation, Royal Society, NERC, EPSRC and EU Horizon2020. He is affiliated with the Geological Society of London. Jamie works for Keele University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alastair Ruffell receives funding from: ProjectBoost (IntertradeIreland); Arts & Humanities Research Council; Natural Environment Research Council; Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Morgan has received funding from the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p>Despite advanced technology and search techniques the rugged seafloor can hide objects much larger than a plane.Jamie Pringle, Reader in Forensic Geoscience, Keele UniversityAlastair Ruffell, Reader, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University BelfastRuth Morgan, Vice Dean Engineering (Interdisciplinarity Entrepreneurship), Professor of Crime and Forensic Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250422024-03-07T13:35:00Z2024-03-07T13:35:00ZWhat is intersectionality and why does it make feminism more effective?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580154/original/file-20240306-25-2qvls8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C36%2C3464%2C1956&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/five-women-different-nationalities-cultures-standing-1708934329">Mary Long/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The way we talk about society and the people and structures in it is constantly changing. One term you may come across this International Women’s Day is “intersectionality”. And specifically, the concept of “intersectional feminism”. </p>
<p>Intersectionality refers to the fact that everyone is part of multiple social categories. These include gender, social class, sexuality, (dis)ability and racialisation (when people are divided into <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/508966">“racial” groups</a> often based on skin colour or features). </p>
<p>These categories are not independent of each other, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv11hpkdj">they intersect</a>. This looks different for every person. For example, a black woman without a disability will have a different experience of society than a white woman without a disability – or a black woman with a disability.</p>
<p>An intersectional approach makes social policy more inclusive and just. Its value was evident in <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Social+Policy:+A+Critical+and+Intersectional+Analysis-p-9781509540389">research</a> during the pandemic, when it became clear that women from various groups, those who worked in caring jobs and who lived in crowded circumstances were much more likely to die from COVID.</p>
<h2>A long-fought battle</h2>
<p>American civil rights leader and scholar Kimberlé Crenshaw <a href="https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1052&context=uclf">first introduced</a> the term intersectionality in a 1989 paper. She argued that focusing on a single form of oppression (such as gender or race) perpetuated discrimination against black women, who are simultaneously subjected to both racism and sexism.</p>
<p>Crenshaw gave a name to ways of thinking and theorising that black and Latina feminists, as well as working-class and lesbian feminists, had argued for decades. The <a href="https://www.blackpast.org/african-american-history/combahee-river-collective-statement-1977/">Combahee River Collective</a> of black lesbians was groundbreaking in this work. </p>
<p>They called for strategic alliances with black men to oppose racism, white women to oppose sexism and lesbians to oppose homophobia. This was an example of how an intersectional understanding of identity and social power relations can create more opportunities for action.</p>
<p>These ideas have, through political struggle, come to be accepted in feminist thinking and women’s studies scholarship. An increasing number of feminists now use the term “intersectional feminism”.</p>
<p>The term has moved from academia to feminist activist and social justice circles and beyond in recent years. Its popularity and widespread use means it is subjected to much <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781003089520/routledge-international-handbook-intersectionality-studies-kathy-davis-helma-lutz">scrutiny and debate</a> about how and when it should be employed. For example, some argue that it should always include attention to racism and racialisation.</p>
<h2>Recognising more issues makes feminism more effective</h2>
<p>In writing about intersectionality, Crenshaw argued that singular approaches to social categories made black women’s oppression invisible. Many <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780861043798/aint-i-a-woman">black feminists</a> have <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13504630.2013.789613">pointed out</a> that white feminists frequently overlook how racial categories shape different women’s experiences.</p>
<p>One example is hair discrimination. It is only <a href="https://www.erudit.org/en/journals/nw/2020-v10-nw05999/1076920ar.pdf">in the 2020s</a> that many organisations in South Africa, the UK and US have recognised that it is discriminatory to regulate black women’s hairstyles in ways that render their natural hair unacceptable.</p>
<p>This is an intersectional approach. White women and most black men do not face the same discrimination and pressures to straighten their hair.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="View from behind of a young, black woman speaking to female colleagues in an office" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580163/original/file-20240306-24-g6monm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580163/original/file-20240306-24-g6monm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580163/original/file-20240306-24-g6monm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580163/original/file-20240306-24-g6monm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580163/original/file-20240306-24-g6monm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580163/original/file-20240306-24-g6monm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580163/original/file-20240306-24-g6monm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intersectionality can lead to more inclusive organisations, activism and social movements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/african-american-female-empowering-other-colleagues-2038048970">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.marxists.org/history//etol/img/img-pamphlets/free-abortion-on-demand.pdf">“Abortion on demand”</a> in the <a href="https://wellcomecollection.org/works/zj8dz495">1970s and 1980s</a> in the UK and USA took no account of the fact that black women in these and many other countries needed to <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/1998-07820-005.pdf">campaign against</a> being <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520288201/reproductive-justice">given abortions</a> against their will. The fight for reproductive justice does not look the same for all women. </p>
<p>Similarly, the experiences of working-class women have frequently been rendered invisible in white, middle class <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/Entries/feminism-class/">feminist campaigns and writings</a>. Intersectionality means that these issues are recognised and fought for in an inclusive and more powerful way.</p>
<p>In the 35 years since Crenshaw coined the term, feminist scholars have analysed how women are positioned in society, for example, as black, working-class, lesbian or <a href="https://vc.bridgew.edu/jiws/vol5/iss3/8/">colonial subjects</a>. Intersectionality reminds us that fruitful discussions about discrimination and justice must acknowledge how these different categories affect each other and their associated power relations.</p>
<p>This does not mean that research and policy cannot focus predominantly on one social category, such as race, gender or social class. But it does mean that we cannot, and should not, understand those categories in isolation of each other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ann Phoenix does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The social categories that we belong to shape our understanding of the world in different ways.Ann Phoenix, Professor of Psychosocial Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2238892024-03-06T17:01:07Z2024-03-06T17:01:07ZTaxes aren’t just about money – they shape how we think about each other<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579923/original/file-20240305-30-oxcats.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7916%2C3808&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Whose contribution is 'worth' more?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/crowd-diverse-people-walking-city-street-2224776143">Stokkete/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Taxes – raising them, cutting them, creating them – are useful <a href="https://theconversation.com/jeremy-hunts-budget-the-problem-for-labour-explained-225030">political tools</a> in an election year (as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s decision to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68465603">cut national insurance</a> shows). But they are always pertinent, even if some people don’t think about taxes more than once or twice a year. </p>
<p>How do we raise money for the NHS? How much inheritance tax is fair to pay? What level of value-added tax (VAT) is right for our economy? And who benefits from these decisions? </p>
<p>These are not just questions of money, or even about who would or should get more or less of it. My <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/anthropology/research/sociality-tax">ongoing research</a> shows that tax systems have deep effects on our <a href="https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/MakovickyBeyond">social relationships</a>, shaping our understanding of <a href="https://www.anthroencyclopedia.com/entry/tax">who contributes to society</a>, and what “counts” as a contribution. </p>
<p>I have been exploring the social effects of tax since 2018, speaking with taxpayers, business owners, workers, tax officials and others in Bolivia, the UK and Sweden. </p>
<p>Research participants in the UK and Sweden, across different groups of taxpayers (pensioners, students, high earners and benefit recipients), perceive paying income tax and national insurance as contributing as a citizen. They view it as an act of sharing the wealth, produced through labour, for the purpose of common public good. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tax-cuts-in-an-election-year-they-can-boost-consumer-confidence-and-work-wonders-for-a-governing-party-224887">Tax cuts in an election year? They can boost consumer confidence and work wonders for a governing party</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meanwhile, VAT is not so strongly linked to being a contributing citizen, despite most parts of the world having some sort of VAT, or sales tax, that people pay as part of consuming goods and services. </p>
<p>It is often “less visible” than income tax because, in most places, it is not separated out from the price you pay for goods when shopping. In other words, there is no mention on your receipt of the VAT you have paid when you do your weekly food shop (the US being a notable exception).</p>
<p>This matters, because millions of people on low incomes (<a href="https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/output_url_files/BN253-Characteristics-and-Incomes-Of-The-Top-1%252525.pdf">43% of adults in the UK</a>) pay little to no income tax or national insurance due to the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/income-tax-rates">personal allowance</a>. VAT, on the other hand, is a <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/regressive-tax/">regressive tax</a>, because people on low incomes pay a proportionally larger amount of their incomes in VAT than people on higher incomes. </p>
<p>If we apply my research findings here, the result is that the contributions of people on lower incomes are not viewed as having the same social value as those paid by people on higher incomes. How contribution is “calculated” by the general population is not, then, about the amount of money paid in taxes, but about the ideas connected to different types of taxes. </p>
<h2>A global view</h2>
<p>Fiscal and tax systems have <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/gb/universitypress/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/taxation-and-state-building-developing-countries-capacity-and-consent?format=PB&isbn=9780521716192">different social effects</a> from country to country. In the UK and many <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0192512104043018">European countries</a> there tends to be a strong link between income tax and national belonging. But in other places, especially countries that were formerly occupied by colonial powers, the opposite is true.</p>
<p>In Bolivia, people have <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02757206.2017.1281266">historically associated</a> taxes paid with exploitation, rather than inclusion. This was because the indigenous population were forced to pay taxes on their land in the form of slave labour, while the middle classes of European descent were exempt. </p>
<p>This unpaid labour, called the <em>Mit'a</em>, was a tribute system established by the Incas and intensified by the colonial Spanish government for the purposes of collecting revenue for the respective empires. </p>
<p>My research participants <a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/social-analysis/64/2/sa640202.xml">in Bolivia</a> did not see paying income tax or even VAT as an act of contributing to society. Instead they preferred to contribute to non-state organisations, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0308275X221139154">such as unions or churches</a>, in order to build collective public goods (<a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/social-analysis/64/2/sa640203.xml">there are similar attitudes in places like Ghana</a>). </p>
<p>As the local tax authorities did not have the resources to enforce all taxes in rural areas and the outskirts of urban areas, people with incomes from formal and informal labour arrangements were able to avoid paying taxes. </p>
<p>However, their tax avoidance was not about just saving money (indeed, in their income brackets, the tax burden was low). Instead, it was motivated by what organisations they trusted to use that money best. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young woman sits at a desk looking at financial papers and her laptop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579927/original/file-20240305-26-knp60g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579927/original/file-20240305-26-knp60g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579927/original/file-20240305-26-knp60g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579927/original/file-20240305-26-knp60g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579927/original/file-20240305-26-knp60g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579927/original/file-20240305-26-knp60g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579927/original/file-20240305-26-knp60g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some taxes are viewed as contributing more than others, regardless of their actual value.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-busy-business-woman-manager-lawyer-2223351521">insta_photos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is taxable?</h2>
<p>Though most countries tax labour, consumption, profit and wealth in some combination and to some degree, views on what can (and should) be taxed vary between countries. </p>
<p>That helping a neighbour by walking their dog in return for babysitting could be considered a form of tax evasion might seem shocking to many. But this is the kind of debate that tax authorities and taxpayers in Sweden have been having since 1991, when economic reform <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1045235415000520#bbib0065">made barter taxable</a>, leaving it up to the tax authorities to interpret the law responsibly.</p>
<p>Such an example helps us think through the role that taxes play in society, how an activity or a product is taxable or not, and what happens when something is taxed for the first time or stops being taxed. </p>
<p>When Sweden scrapped inheritance tax in <a href="https://sweden.se/life/society/taxes-in-sweden">2005</a>, it transformed inherited property from being a profitable asset to being a personal or family belonging. This is not just a question of money paid or not paid, but about the value and meaning of that thing. </p>
<p>Tax systems are complex, and are often most beneficial to those who know how to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-tax-havens-57244">exploit them</a>. While it is easy to look at announcements like a national insurance cut as simply more money in your pocket, my research shows that taxes are about much more than money. How we implement them can cause harm or make positive change for how society works.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miranda Sheild Johansson receives funding from the UKRI, a Future Leaders Fellowship (Grant Ref: MR/V022261/1). </span></em></p>In the UK, taxpayers see paying income tax as part of contributing as a citizen.Miranda Sheild Johansson, Senior Research Fellow in Social Anthropology, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250022024-03-04T16:15:33Z2024-03-04T16:15:33ZJupiter’s moon Europa produces less oxygen than we thought – it may affect our chances of finding life there<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579561/original/file-20240304-24-hmeyeg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C0%2C1976%2C1000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Europa seen in true colour (left) and false colour (right).</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Jupiter’s icy moon Europa has long been thought of as one of the most habitable worlds in the Solar System. Now the Juno mission to Jupiter has directly sampled its atmosphere in detail for the first time. The results, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-024-02206-x">published in Nature Astronomy</a>, show that Europa’s icy surface produces less oxygen than we thought.</p>
<p>There are plenty of reasons to be excited about the possibility of finding microbial life on Europa. Evidence from the Galileo mission has shown that the moon <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9450749/">has an ocean</a> below its icy surface containing about twice the amount of water as Earth’s oceans. Also, models derived from Europa data show that its ocean floor is in contact with rock, enabling chemical water-rock interactions that <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasa-considers-sending-swimming-robots-to-habitable-ocean-worlds-of-the-solar-system-186228">produce energy</a>, making it the prime candidate for life.</p>
<p>Telescope observations, meanwhile, reveal a weak, <a href="https://europa.nasa.gov/news/18/hubble-finds-oxygen-atmosphere-on-jupiters-moon-europa/">oxygen-rich atmosphere</a>. It also looks as though <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/">plumes of water erupt</a> intermittently from the ocean. And there is some evidence of the presence of <a href="https://europa.nasa.gov/why-europa/ingredients-for-life/#:%7E:text=NASA%2FJPL%2DCaltech-,Europa's%20surface%20is%20blasted%20by%20radiation%20from%20Jupiter.,in%20Europa's%20extremely%20tenuous%20atmosphere.">basic chemical elements</a> on the surface – including carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus and sulphur – used by life on Earth. Some of these could seep down into the water from the atmosphere and surface.</p>
<p>The heating of Europa and its ocean is partly thanks to the moon’s orbit around Jupiter, which produces tidal forces to heat an otherwise frigid environment. </p>
<p>Although Europa boasts three basic ingredients for life – water, the right chemical elements and a source of heat – we don’t yet know if there has been enough time for life to develop.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Plumes seen on Europa." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579569/original/file-20240304-16-u47ybe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579569/original/file-20240304-16-u47ybe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579569/original/file-20240304-16-u47ybe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579569/original/file-20240304-16-u47ybe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579569/original/file-20240304-16-u47ybe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579569/original/file-20240304-16-u47ybe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579569/original/file-20240304-16-u47ybe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plumes seen on Europa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nasa</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The other prime candidate in our solar system is Mars, the Rosalind Franklin rover’s target in 2028. Life <a href="https://theconversation.com/perseverance-mars-rover-how-to-prove-whether-theres-life-on-the-red-planet-154982">might have started on Mars</a> at the same time as it did on Earth, but then probably stopped due to climate change. </p>
<p>A third candidate is Saturn’s moon Enceladus where the Cassini-Huygens mission discovered plumes of water from a sub-surface salty ocean, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05987-9">also in contact with rock</a> at the ocean’s floor. </p>
<p>Titan is the closest runner up in fourth place, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/aa7851">with its thick atmosphere</a> of organic compounds including hydrocarbon and tholins, born in the high atmosphere. These then float down to the surface coating it with ingredients for life.</p>
<h2>Losing oxygen</h2>
<p>The Juno mission boasts <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SSRv..213..547M/abstract">the best charged particle instruments</a> sent to Jupiter so far. It can measure the energy, direction and composition of charged particles on the surface. Similar instruments at Saturn and Titan <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/chem13-news-magazine/february-2017/chemistry/what-earth-are-tholins">found tholins</a> (a type of organic substance) there. But they also measured particles that suggested atmospheres at Saturn’s moons Rhea and Dione, in addition to those at Titan and Enceladus.</p>
<p>These particles are known as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/physics-and-astronomy/pickup-ions">pickup ions</a>. Planetary atmospheres consist of neutral particles, but the top of an atmosphere becomes “ionised” (meaning it loses electrons) in sunlight and via collisions with other particles, forming ions (charged atoms that have lost electrons) and free electrons. </p>
<p>When a plasma – a charged gas making up the fourth state of matter beyond solid, liquid and gas – flows past an atmosphere with newly formed ions, it disturbs the atmosphere with electric fields which can accelerate the new ions – the first part of an ion pickup process. </p>
<p>These pickup ions then spiral around the planet’s magnetic field and are usually lost from the atmosphere, while some hit the surface and are absorbed. The pickup process has rid the Martian atmosphere of particles after the red planet’s magnetic field was lost 3.8 billion years ago.</p>
<p>Europa also has a pickup process. The new measurements show the telltale signs of pickup molecular oxygen and hydrogen ions from the surface and atmosphere. Some of these escape from Europa, whereas some hit the icy surface enhancing the amount of oxygen at and under the surface. </p>
<p>This confirms that oxygen and hydrogen are indeed the main constituents of Europa’s atmosphere – in agreement with remote observations. However, the measurements imply that the amount of oxygen being produced – released by the surface to the atmosphere – is only about 12kg per second, at the lower end of earlier estimates from about 5kg to 1,100 kg per second. </p>
<p>This would indicate that the surface suffers very little erosion. The measurements indicate that this may amount to only 1.5cm of Europa’s surface per million years, which is less than we had thought. So Europa is constantly losing oxygen due to pickup processes, with only a small amount of additional oxygen being released from the surface to replenish it and ending up back on the surface.</p>
<p>So what does that mean for its chances of hosting life? Some of the oxygen trapped in the surface may find its way to the subsurface ocean to nourish any life there. But based on the study’s estimate of the overall loss of oxygen, this should be less than the 0.3kg-300kg per second estimated earlier. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether this rate, recorded on 29, September 2022, is usual. Perhaps it is not representative of the overall oxygen on the moon. It may be that the eruption of plumes, orbital position and upstream conditions increase and decrease the rate at certain times, respectively.</p>
<p>Nasa’s <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper">Europa Clipper mission</a>, to be launched later this year, and the Juice mission which will make two flybys of Europa on its way to orbit Ganymede, will be able to follow up these measurements, and provide much more information on Europa’s habitability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Coates receives funding from STFC and UKSA (UK). </span></em></p>Only about 12kg of oxygen is produced per second on Europa, which is on the lower side of previous estimates from about 5kg to 1,100 kg per second.Andrew Coates, Professor of Physics, Deputy Director (Solar System) at the Mullard Space Science Laboratory, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221942024-02-29T17:37:25Z2024-02-29T17:37:25ZBeing excluded or truant from school leads to mental health problems – and vice versa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577410/original/file-20240222-19-dlxx0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C3%2C2488%2C1837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/toned-photo-sad-teenager-sit-on-760921072">Sabphoto/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the aftermath of the pandemic there has been a <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-absence-rates-have-rocketed-the-whole-educational-experience-needs-to-change-222187">substantial increase</a> in the number of students who are absent from school in the UK, and children are reporting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/aug/15/number-children-mental-health-crisis-record-high-england">higher levels</a> of mental ill health than ever before. </p>
<p>Research has previously shown that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13632752.2014.945741">exclusion</a> (a child being removed from school) and <a href="https://acamh.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/camh.12322">truancy</a> are linked with poor mental health. </p>
<p>Now, I have <a href="https://acamh.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/camh.12681">carried out research</a> with colleagues to examine whether mental health leads to exclusion and truancy, or whether exclusion and truancy are in fact contributing to poor mental health in children and adolescents. </p>
<p>We found that the connection goes both ways. Children who struggled with their mental health were more likely to later be excluded from school and to truant. And we also found evidence that exclusion and truancy could increase their mental health difficulties.</p>
<h2>A vicious cycle</h2>
<p>Missing out on school <a href="https://educationhub.blog.gov.uk/2023/09/28/what-are-ghost-children-and-why-is-school-attendance-important/">is detrimental</a> not only to children’s educational achievement but also to their wellbeing and overall development. These children miss out on important formative interactions with their peers and teachers. </p>
<p>Being excluded from school can have a long-term – even life-long – impact. Research suggests that children who have been excluded are <a href="https://www.ippr.org/articles/making-the-difference">more likely</a> to be unemployed and to go to prison, as well as to have mental health difficulties. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://acamh.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/camh.12681">our study</a> we used nationally representative data from more than 15,000 children born in the UK <a href="https://cls.ucl.ac.uk/cls-studies/millennium-cohort-study/">between 2000 and 2002</a>. The survey collected extensive information on participants during their childhood and teenage years, including information on behavioural problems, such as aggressive behaviour, and emotional problems involving symptoms of anxiety and depression. It also included information on children’s experience of school exclusion and truancy.</p>
<p>Our analyses revealed that mental health difficulties in primary school left children more vulnerable to exclusion and truancy later when entering secondary school. More specifically, increases in emotional problems heightened a child’s chances of being excluded in their early adolescent years, and their chances of being truant from school.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young school children in uniform walking away from camera" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577416/original/file-20240222-28-5dkfbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577416/original/file-20240222-28-5dkfbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577416/original/file-20240222-28-5dkfbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577416/original/file-20240222-28-5dkfbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577416/original/file-20240222-28-5dkfbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577416/original/file-20240222-28-5dkfbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577416/original/file-20240222-28-5dkfbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mental ill-health in primary school is linked to exclusion later on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-diverse-kindergarten-students-walking-together-659275150">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Primary school children with worsening behavioural problems were also more at risk of being excluded when they reached secondary school. But, we found no evidence that behavioural problems increased children’s probability of truancy.</p>
<p>In our study, we also discovered that truancy and exclusion may in turn be exacerbating mental health problems. We showed that some of these detrimental effects differed according to the child’s gender. And while some affected mental health only in the short-term, others had a longer lasting impact.</p>
<p>For example, boys – but not girls – who had been excluded in secondary school went on to have higher levels of depression and anxiety, with effects lasting even into late adolescence after they had left school. Both boys and girls who had been excluded also went on to have worse behavioural problems in early adolescence but not later in adolescence. Truants went on to have greater long-term emotional problems, and short-term their conduct problems were also higher.</p>
<h2>Changing the pattern</h2>
<p>Our study very clearly demonstrates a cycle of disadvantage, where children who were struggling with their mental health went on to be truant or be excluded, but at the same time truancy and being excluded further exacerbated their problems, sometimes into late adolescence.</p>
<p>This new knowledge emphasises the need for prevention and intervention for child mental health problems. This could reduce the number of vulnerable children missing out on educational opportunities and also reduce further damage to their mental health. </p>
<p>School-based social and emotional learning programmes may have an <a href="https://srcd.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cdev.12864">important role to play</a> as these have shown success in reducing both behavioural and emotional problems. <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/41590/documents/205047/default/">Sports-based programmes</a> may be another promising avenue for keeping children connected to school. More awareness of child mental health is also vital, even as young as primary school age. Many children may <a href="https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mental-health-of-children-and-young-people-in-england/2017/2017">slip through the net</a>: they need better and early access to mental health services.</p>
<p>It is interesting that school exclusion was found to increase emotional symptoms in boys, but not in girls, in both early and late adolescence. These symptoms generally increase much more in girls during this <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0021-843X.112.2.179">developmental period</a>. Additional focus might be needed on finding alternatives to excluding boys from school.</p>
<p>It is particularly poignant that despite behavioural problems not leading to truancy, these types of problems increased following truancy. Children’s bond with their school seems key to reversing this trend. </p>
<p>Programmes that focus on transforming the school environment by developing student commitment to learning and creating a sense of belonging in the school, as these can <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/5/e031589">reduce truancy</a>, could make a significant difference here. And later mental health problems may also be avoided.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aase Villadsen receives funding from UK Economic and Social Research Council</span></em></p>Being excluded from school can have a life-long impact.Aase Villadsen, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Education, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247002024-02-29T09:50:59Z2024-02-29T09:50:59ZGaza war: Palestinian prisoners will be a key condition of any ceasefire deal – here’s why<p>As Israel and Hamas inch closer to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/details-40-day-gaza-truce-draft-proposal-being-studied-by-hamas-2024-02-27/">temporary ceasefire</a> in Gaza, one of the key <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/25/israel-hamas-cease-fire-deal/">sticking points</a> has been the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages, of which about 130 are still being held – although some are thought to have died.</p>
<p>Why is the prisoners’ ratio so crucial in the current negotiations? The answer lies in recognising the centrality of the prisoners’ issue when it comes to mediating the broader conflict.</p>
<p>As I have documented in my book, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Palestinian-Prisoners-Movement-Resistance-and-Disobedience/Norman/p/book/9780367749446">The Palestinian Prisoners Movement</a>, rates of Palestinian imprisonment are notably high. Approximately 40% of the Palestinian male population have been <a href="https://www.addameer.org/advocacy/briefings_papers/general-briefing-palestinian-political-prisoners-israeli-prisons-0">detained or imprisoned</a> at least once. At present, there are as many as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/21/more-than-8000-palestinians-in-israeli-jails-rights-groups-say">8,000</a> Palestinian prisoners and detainees in Israeli prisons, the highest number in more than 14 years.</p>
<p>There are two main ways that Palestinians become imprisoned in Israel. The first is via conviction in Israel’s <a href="https://www.btselem.org/topic/military_courts">military court system</a>. This is the main judicial mechanism for Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank. The <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/2011-11-29/ty-article/nearly-100-of-all-military-court-cases-in-west-bank-end-in-conviction-haaretz-learns/0000017f-e7c4-da9b-a1ff-efef7ad70000">conviction rate</a> in these courts is more than 99%, with the majority of convictions based on “confessions” given during interrogations before most detainees have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/28/israel-denies-lawyers-palestinian-prisoners">access to a lawyer</a>. </p>
<p>Yet even plea bargains can yield long sentences – throwing stones, for example, carries a minimum sentence of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/3/israel-passes-minimum-sentence-for-stone-throwers">three years</a> but can be punishable by up to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/7/21/palestinian-stone-throwers-face-up-to-20-years-in-jail">20 years</a>. </p>
<p>While a minority of prisoners have been convicted of armed violence or terrorism, other charges have included <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/6/ahed-tamimi-palestinian-activist-arrested-for-inciting">online incitement</a>, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org.uk/drop-charges-against-palestine-human-rights-defenders-israel">organisation of nonviolent protests</a> or demonstrations and, of course, affiliation with Hamas or other banned groups.</p>
<p>The second main mechanism by which Palestinians are held is through a policy called “administrative detention”, which Israeli human rights group <a href="https://www.btselem.org/topic/administrative_detention">B’tselem</a> describes as “incarceration without trial or charge, alleging that a person plans to commit a future offence”. No evidence is disclosed, and there is no time limit to the detention period. </p>
<p>Although some detainees are held for several days or weeks, nearly <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Palestinian-Prisoners-Movement-Resistance-and-Disobedience/Norman/p/book/9780367749446">80%</a> of those incarcerated under administrative detention historically have been held for more than six months. Some have been held for years. While <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.33_GC-IV-EN.pdf">international law</a> stipulates that administrative detention should be used sparingly, more than <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240117-israel-administrative-detention-rates-soar-after-october-7">3,000</a> Palestinians were being held in administrative detention as of January 2024.</p>
<h2>Why is the issue so important?</h2>
<p>Due to the widespread nature of detention and incarceration, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-hostages-ceasefire-9f57efb1a01afebb9a921cfbf01648bb">nearly all</a> Palestinians have a friend or relative who has been imprisoned. This is especially the case in rural areas and refugee camps, where <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/21/battle-on-third-front-palestinians-in-west-bank-vow-to-fight-on-after-israeli-raids">raids</a> by Israeli troops are common. </p>
<p>As I have <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Palestinian-Prisoners-Movement-Resistance-and-Disobedience/Norman/p/book/9780367749446">documented</a>, there is ample solidarity with prisoners among Palestinian communities – this crosses the lines of politics, class, religion and locale. Detainees are typically viewed by their communities as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-hostages-ceasefire-9f57efb1a01afebb9a921cfbf01648bb">heroes</a> who are resisting the occupation.</p>
<p>By contrast, most Israelis view all prisoners as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-hostages-ceasefire-9f57efb1a01afebb9a921cfbf01648bb">terrorists</a> and consider the state’s use of incarceration and detention as necessary for Israel’s security. Now – in the aftermath of the brutal Hamas October 7 attack – most Israelis reject any <a href="https://www.ajc.org/news/debunking-the-false-equivalency-between-israeli-hostages-and-palestinian-prisoners">moral equivalence</a> between Palestinian detainees and Israeli hostages, and a <a href="https://en.idi.org.il/articles/52496">majority</a> oppose a full prisoner release in exchange for the hostages.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Israel has demonstrated willingness to negotiate on prisoner releases in the past. In <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/17/world/meast/israel-prisoner-swap-explainer/index.html">2011</a>, Israel controversially freed over 1,000 prisoners in exchange for captured soldier Gilad Shalit. In <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/10/18/timeline-past-prisoner-swaps">1983 and 1985</a>, Israel released thousands of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli soldiers.</p>
<h2>Where do things stand now?</h2>
<p>In the November ceasefire, Hamas and Israel agreed to a <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/the-economist-explains/2023/11/27/who-are-the-palestinians-in-israels-prisons">three-to-one</a> ratio – three Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli (or international) hostage released. This has resulted in 240 detainees being freed for 80 hostages. More than 170 of these Palestinian prisoners were still <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/the-economist-explains/2023/11/27/who-are-the-palestinians-in-israels-prisons">awaiting trial</a> – <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/the-economist-explains/2023/11/27/who-are-the-palestinians-in-israels-prisons">90% of them were teenage boys</a> aged 16–18, and the other 10% were adult women.</p>
<p>In the current negotiations, Hamas has called for the release of <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hamas-demands-israel-release-fatah-leader-marwan-barghouti/7469446.html">all Palestinian prisoners</a>. Israel has refused this demand – but over the course of negotiations, the two sides have reportedly settled on a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/details-40-day-gaza-truce-draft-proposal-being-studied-by-hamas-2024-02-27/">ten-to-one</a> ratio. Consequently, under the proposed deal, 400 Palestinian prisoners will potentially be released in exchange for 40 Israeli hostages. </p>
<p>It is likely that Hamas will push for the release of high-profile prisoners in this exchange. These could include <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hamas-demands-israel-release-fatah-leader-marwan-barghouti/7469446.html">Marwan Barghouti</a>, a long-time prisoner who many Palestinians view as a potential <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/17/the-most-popular-palestinian-leader-alive-releasing-marwan-barghouti-could-transform-territories-politics">future president</a>.</p>
<p>Hamas and Israel have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/hamas-and-israel-pour-cold-water-on-bidens-hopes-of-imminent-ceasefire">yet to agree</a> to a final deal. But it’s clear the details of the prisoners’ release will be the linchpin of any agreement. </p>
<p>In many ways, the prisoners’ issue encapsulates the intangible elements that lie at the roots of the broader conflict: the need for security among Israelis, and the yearning for liberation among Palestinians. Negotiations on prisoner releases can open deep-seated tensions on how to balance between those priorities, but they also reveal rare opportunities for occasional compromise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie M Norman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The prisoner-hostage exchanges mean a huge amount to both sides of the conflict.Julie M Norman, Senior Associate Fellow on the Middle East at RUSI; Associate Professor in Politics & International Relations; Deputy Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228402024-02-21T17:44:12Z2024-02-21T17:44:12ZFuture graduates will pay more in student loan repayments – and the poorest will be worst affected<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575972/original/file-20240215-26-nsgaaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C12%2C8179%2C5444&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/frustrated-woman-shocked-by-bad-news-2391411187">IndianFaces/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lots of people are hoping to see a tax cut in their payslips after the British government announces its annual budget in March. The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has said he wants to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/07/rishi-sunak-says-he-wants-to-cut-workers-taxes-this-year-and-may-reduce-benefits">reduce the tax burden</a> on workers, at a time when the country is paying more of the money it makes to the Treasury than at any time since the second world war. </p>
<p>But in all the discussion about tax cuts, what’s rarely talked about is the fact that last year the government made a change to student loan conditions that means millions of future graduates will get less money in their pay packets – and pay much more to the government over their lifetimes. What’s more, this will affect mostly low and middle earners, while some of the highest earners will actually pay less.</p>
<p>In 2023, the <a href="https://educationhub.blog.gov.uk/2023/08/01/how-are-student-loans-changing-everything-you-need-to-know/">government introduced</a> the biggest reforms to the student loans system in England in over a decade, in order to increase the proportion of student loan debt that is eventually repaid.</p>
<p>Students starting university from August 2023 will have to make loan repayments for longer – 40 rather than 30 years. And they will start repaying when their salary reaches £25,000, rather than nearly £30,000 under the previous system. </p>
<p>How <a href="https://educationhub.blog.gov.uk/2023/08/01/how-are-student-loans-changing-everything-you-need-to-know/">interest is charged</a> has also changed. Previously, higher earners paid more interest, but now new borrowers will pay the same rate, which is linked to a measure of inflation (the rate at which prices go up). </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Quarter life, a series by The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/quarter-life-117947?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">This article is part of Quarter Life</a></strong>, a series about issues affecting those of us in our twenties and thirties. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.</em></p>
<p><em>You may be interested in:</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-young-workers-are-leaving-fossil-fuel-jobs-and-what-to-do-if-you-feel-like-climate-quitting-214759">Why young workers are leaving fossil fuel jobs – and what to do if you feel like ‘climate quitting’</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-challenge-toxic-behaviour-and-help-someone-being-bullied-or-harassed-at-work-214524">How to challenge toxic behaviour and help someone being bullied or harassed at work</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-is-important-if-you-want-to-succeed-at-work-heres-how-to-build-it-200095">Trust is important if you want to succeed at work – here’s how to build it</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://ifs.org.uk/articles/student-loans-england-explained-and-options-reform">Research from</a> the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that 79% of new borrowers will repay their student loans in full, compared with just 49% of those who took out their loans before August 2023.</p>
<p>Good news for the government, which will get more money back. But some economists have described the reforms as “<a href="https://londoneconomics.co.uk/blog/publication/alternative-options-for-higher-education-fees-and-funding-for-england-may-2023/">deeply regressive</a>” for penalising poorer graduates. </p>
<p><a href="https://ifs.org.uk/publications/student-loans-reform-leap-unknown">One analysis</a> estimates that low-to-middle earners could end up repaying on average around £30,000 more over their lifetimes due to the extended repayment period. Meanwhile, high earners could repay £20,000 less due to the lower interest rate and their ability to pay off their loans quicker.</p>
<h2>Things are getting worse</h2>
<p><a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01079/SN01079.pdf">Most students</a> in England borrow from the Student Loans Company to cover the cost of tuition fees and receive a maintenance loan to use towards their living costs. They later repay loans by having a certain amount taken out of their wages every month, meaning they experience repayments like a tax. </p>
<p>And, like tax, the amount they pay is calculated based on what they earn above a certain threshold. If they don’t earn enough, they don’t have to pay. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/previous-annual-repayment-thresholds">The threshold</a> at which repayments start used to rise every year in line with average earnings growth. But in 2021 it was frozen at £27,295. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I <a href="https://cls.ucl.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/CLS-Working-Papers-2024-1-Sample-representativeness-and-data-quality-in-the-linked-Next-Steps-survey-and-Student-Loans-Company-administrative-data.pdf">have estimated</a> that the repayment threshold would have been £29,860 this year if the freeze had not been implemented. And so those with loans are paying a higher proportion of their income in repayments each month. </p>
<p>For students starting university from August 2023 things look even worse, because the repayment threshold has been reduced to £25,000 and frozen for at least the next three years. With the repayment period extended to 40 years, this means borrowers will be forced to repay even more of their income each year and could be repaying student loans <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/articles/student-loans-england-explained-and-options-reform">into their sixties</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1058933/Higher_education_policy_statement_reform_consultation_-_Equality_analysis.pdf">government analysis</a> reported that those with lower lifetime earnings would be the most negatively affected, including more women and people from ethnic minority groups. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://cls.ucl.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/CLS-Working-Papers-2024-1-Sample-representativeness-and-data-quality-in-the-linked-Next-Steps-survey-and-Student-Loans-Company-administrative-data.pdf">new research</a>, suggests that those who will have to make repayments under the new system who wouldn’t have before, are more likely to be from marginalised groups or in precarious work.</p>
<p>The study, which has not yet been reviewed by other academics but released as part of UCL’s Centre for Longitudinal Studies working paper series, used data from the <a href="https://cls.ucl.ac.uk/cls-studies/next-steps/">Next Steps</a> study which, since 2004, has followed the lives of over 16,000 people born in 1989-90 up to the present day. We focused on data collected in 2015-16, when participants were aged 25. </p>
<p>We found that compared with higher earners, those drawn in to making repayments under the new system were more likely to be from an ethnic minority or a more disadvantaged background, such as those previously eligible for free school meals. They were much more likely to work part time or have a temporary or zero-hours contract, and were also more likely to be in education while also working.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>Some researchers have proposed a <a href="https://londoneconomics.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/London-Economics-Options-for-English-HE-fees-and-funding-03-05-2023.pdf">stepped repayment system</a>, similar to tax thresholds. Low and middle earners would repay a lower proportion of their income (for instance 3%-7%), while high earners would repay at the maximum rate of 9%. </p>
<p>However, they also recommend introducing a higher interest rate on student loans, in order to support the aim of increasing the proportion of student loan debt that is eventually repaid. This would slow down the rate at which high earners pay off their student loans, and could even fund the re-introduction of means-tested maintenance grants for students from poorer backgrounds attending university. </p>
<p>Another option would be to raise the income repayment threshold, at least in line with inflation. The threshold exists to protect borrowers with no or low income. But, especially given the recent rise in the cost of living, it is unclear whether the reformed threshold is serving this purpose. </p>
<p>As they currently stand, the recent reforms mean that new graduates will be losing a higher proportion of their income than before and will be paying back loans for much longer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlotte Booth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Forget tax cuts: students will pay more of their future income in loan repayments – and for up to a decade longer.Charlotte Booth, Research Fellow in Quantitative Social Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228092024-02-19T17:10:11Z2024-02-19T17:10:11ZPotassium in our soil is running low, threatening global food security – new study proposes a way out<p>Soils around the world are running low on potassium, a key nutrient needed for plants to grow. This ultimately means we may not be able to grow enough food for everyone. </p>
<p>But it’s not too late: we have just <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00929-8.epdf?sharing_token=qhRQ1iepxmbV7dxrbcIgGtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NCdnu7x8IwXr3USOl-E8-A5H2Nqj_gLRuSjtW7hxPh_hd72uJ4hiStFDWxhn_AyhCkX0KybktR6HIOHHgWMkTCyIwR-8GuUGO79NJZw-1ezaLJ7AzLGlkAWaP0TusHPhw%3D">published research</a> identifying six things we must do to safeguard potassium supplies and food production. </p>
<p>Potassium is required for plant growth alongside nitrogen and phosphorus (known as kalium in latin, potassium is the K in NPK fertilisers). While <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.12.016">nitrogen</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.17834.08645">phosphorus</a> sustainability issues are widely known, potassium remains in the shadows. Yet <a href="https://doi.org/10.5772/53185">around 20%</a> of agricultural soils worldwide grapple with potassium deficiency, especially in east Asia, south-east Asia, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>Globally, more potassium is being extracted in harvests – small quantities of potassium are essential for every crop we grow – than are being added to fields in fertilisers. This unsustainable phenomenon is known as soil-nutrient mining. </p>
<p>For instance around <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4242342/">75% of China’s rice paddy soils</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-010-0520-1">66% of southern Australia’s wheat belt</a> don’t have enough potassium. In India, a lack of potassium is already causing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59197-7">smaller crop yields</a>. </p>
<p>Although it may seem straightforward to address the issue by adding more potassium to the soil, the reality is far more complex.</p>
<h2>Supplies are concentrated in a few countries</h2>
<p>Potassium is generally extracted from potash, a crystal-like mineral found in layers of underground rocks. The world’s reserves are concentrated in a handful of countries which means most other countries rely on imports, making their food systems vulnerable to supply disruptions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Small reddish lump of potash." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576560/original/file-20240219-17940-h8efx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Potash collected from a mine in Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/small-sample-potash-collected-canadian-mine-1871645284">Wirestock Creators / shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Canada, Belarus and Russia collectively possess around 70% of the world’s potash reserves. Together with China, those four countries produce <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/potash-statistics-and-information">80% of the global output</a> and dominate a <a href="https://resourcetrade.earth/">US$15 billion (£12 billion) international market</a> for potassium fertiliser.</p>
<p>Potash prices are prone to volatility and there have been two big spikes since 2000. The first was in 2009, when prices <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">more than tripled</a>. Despite widespread concern about fertiliser-driven <a href="https://theconversation.com/further-food-price-rises-could-cause-up-to-1-million-additional-deaths-in-2023-199120">food price instability</a>, little action was taken to shield against future shocks. </p>
<p>In 2021 increased fertiliser demand, post-COVID-19 economic recovery, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and soaring fuel costs led to another <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1088776/full">rapid price escalation</a>. <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/soaring-fertilizer-prices-add-inflationary-pressures-and-food-security-concerns">Sanctions</a> on Belarus added to the disruption. By April 2022, potash was <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">six times more expensive</a> than it had been in January 2021.</p>
<p>Prices have since dipped a little. While this respite may be welcome, the volatility underscores the pressing need to fortify agriculture against unforeseen shocks.</p>
<p>Potash mining also has a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/mining3020011">considerable environmental impact</a>. For each tonne of potassium that is extracted, around three tonnes of mine waste is generated – mostly salt. This is generally left piled up in “salt mountains”. Without proper management that salt can be washed by rains into surrounding rivers and groundwaters where it can significantly damage ecosystems.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mine with large piles of wastes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576557/original/file-20240219-23-pi1lsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A potash mine in Belarus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Olga Maksimava / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also still don’t know exactly what impact increasing potassium concentrations from fertiliser use will have on life in rivers and lakes. Certainly in lab studies it has proven highly toxic to a range of animals. We need to know more about this before we support simply putting more potassium in soils.</p>
<h2>Six things we must do</h2>
<p>To address soil potassium deficiencies and guard against yield fluctuations, price volatility and environmental impacts, we propose <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00929-8.epdf?sharing_token=qhRQ1iepxmbV7dxrbcIgGtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NCdnu7x8IwXr3USOl-E8-A5H2Nqj_gLRuSjtW7hxPh_hd72uJ4hiStFDWxhn_AyhCkX0KybktR6HIOHHgWMkTCyIwR-8GuUGO79NJZw-1ezaLJ7AzLGlkAWaP0TusHPhw%3D">six targeted actions</a>:</p>
<p><strong>1. Review current potassium stocks and flows.</strong> We still don’t have a global assessment of potassium soil stocks which would identify at-risk countries and regions.</p>
<p><strong>2. Get better at predicting price fluctuations.</strong> With volatile potassium prices causing food price spikes, we’ll need to develop our monitoring and forecasting capabilities. An international scheme for reporting potassium resources would give us better data.</p>
<p><strong>3. Help for farmers.</strong> “Sufficient” potassium levels should be defined for each area, based on local assessments considering things like how much potassium was already in the soil and what crops are grown there. There could then be targeted fertiliser recommendations for local farmers.</p>
<p><strong>4. Evaluate the environmental effects.</strong> We need to synthesise all available evidence on environmental damage from potash mining, and a potential increase in potassium fertilisers. We especially need to know what it means for rivers and lakes. Potash alternatives such as polyhalite (a potassium mineral with a lower chloride content) should be considered.</p>
<p><strong>5. Develop a circular potassium economy.</strong> Potassium can be recycled and reused. Creating a circular potassium economy will mean capturing more potassium from human and animal sewage and adding it back on crops to grow more food, so we can eat it again, and so on. Promote diets with lower potassium footprints to reduce reliance on mined potassium sources.</p>
<p><strong>6. More cooperation between governments.</strong> Similar to actions on phosphorus and nitrogen, we need an intergovernmental mechanism to consolidate knowledge on potassium, set globally agreed targets and quantify economic benefits.</p>
<p>As phosphorus and nitrogen gain global attention, potassium must not be left behind. A proposal for a resolution on potassium at a future United Nations environment assembly holds the key to intergovernmental action, setting the stage for positive change and integrated nutrient management to achieve global biodiversity targets.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Brownlie receives funding from NERC, ESPRC and the GEF to conduct collaborative international science research projects. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is the UNFCCC designated point of contact for UCL. He is co-director of the London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is a member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board, Sheep Included Ltd, Lansons and NetZeroNow advisory boards. He has received grant funding from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, CIFF, Sprint2020, and British Council. He has received funding from the BBC, Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Alexander receives funding from ESRC, BBSRC, NERC, Innovate UK, European Commission, Wellcome Trust and Royal Society.</span></em></p>This key fertiliser ingredient is subject to sudden price spikes.Will Brownlie, Senior Science Project Manager, UK Centre for Ecology & HydrologyMark Maslin, Professor of Natural Sciences, UCLPeter Alexander, Senior Lecturer in Global Food Security, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237452024-02-19T13:59:08Z2024-02-19T13:59:08ZJo Brand translated my science. I’m certain that comedy can connect people to climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576323/original/file-20240218-16-rw2y22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mark Maslin and Jo Brand Climate Science Translated</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Science Breakthrough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A new comedy project pairing leading comedians with climate scientists presents a novel way to communicate the climate crisis.</p>
<p>“If people like me have to get involved, you know we are in deep shit,” says Jo Brand, renowned British comedian and The Great British Bake Off host. Why? Because she has joined the ranks of other notable comedians such as <a href="https://www.nishkumar.co.uk/">Nish Kumar</a>, <a href="https://www.kiripritchardmclean.co.uk/">Kiri Pritchard-McLean</a>, and <a href="https://www.jonathanpie.com/">Jonathan Pie</a> in <a href="https://www.climatesciencebreakthrough.com/">Climate Science Translated</a>, a project that translates complex climate science into accessible and funny content to spur millions of people into action.</p>
<p>Even though climate change is the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">greatest threat</a> humanity has ever faced, research by the Climate Science Breakthrough team shows that just 2% of the public can name a climate scientist. Nearly everyone knows Jo Brand. Getting famous comedians to translate what climate scientists are saying in a funny, ironic and often blunt way makes the science much more accessible.</p>
<p>And it works. Research shows that humour can be a transformative tool in <a href="https://jcom.sissa.it/article/pubid/JCOM_1804_2019_A07/">science communication</a> and have a positive impact on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13504622.2022.2113764">people’s understanding of climate change</a>. So far, my video with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA87n9jrWU0&t=33s">Jo Brand</a> has been viewed more than 3 million times and has gained mainstream attention, with celebrities like Ellie Goulding, Gary Lineker, Rainn Wilson and Thom Yorke retweeting the videos. Each time, that brings the core message to a broader audience.</p>
<p>It also works because comedians can say things that scientists cannot – for example, they can swear. Jo asked me in our chat after recording the main film, “was it time for scientists to be allowed to swear, as things are so bad?” My answer, which is in the video clip below, is no. Because the public expect scientists to be calm, rational and to stick to facts – as soon as we “become human” we lose credibility. So, in many ways, Jo Brand is my human side screaming at everyone to do something, now!</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9aSLibYhpiU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Jo Brand asks Mark whether it’s OK for scientists to swear when discussing the urgency of the climate crisis.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The video launch also caught the eye of <a href="https://www.itv.com/goodmorningbritain">Good Morning Britain</a> – Jo Brand and I were invited to appear on the show. Susanna Reed asked me why I had <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZGjEHxoDiQ">agreed to make the video</a> with Jo Brand. My answer was simple: “Would I be on national breakfast TV discussing climate change without the wonderful Jo Brand?” </p>
<p>Celebrities can access a much wider audience than a scientist. Just imagine if Taylor Swift was dating a climate scientist and not an American football player. </p>
<p>Later that morning, TV presenters Susanna Reed and Richard Medley asked the UK environment minister Steve Barclay one of my questions: “Why has the government granted new oil and gas licences when we already have enough reserves to push the climate way beyond 2˚C warming?” Because the new licenses will not be operational for ten to 15 years and will make no difference to the global cost, so consumers will still have very high energy prices. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, he avoided the question – but it was asked on breakfast TV because I was on a comedy video.</p>
<h2>Finding the funny</h2>
<p>Comic Relief is a great example of how effective comedy can be. In 2022, it passed a milestone of raising over £1.5 billion to support people worldwide by harnessing the power of comedy. It now stands out as a calendar moment in British culture. </p>
<p>In politics, comedy has been used in a largely satirical way to engage the public, proving its power. Spitting Image and The Thick Of It crystallised the essence of politics at the time in people’s minds. </p>
<p>Jo Brand’s involvement in the climate comedy project marks a significant step up in celebrities sounding the alarm about the accelerating environmental crisis. Others include Kevin McCloud, Mary Portas, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall and Chris Packham who featured in Channel 4’s <a href="https://www.channel4.com/press/news/channel-4-announces-climate-emergency-season">climate emergency season</a> last year. Even <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inPNxf00iUY">William Shatner</a>, the original Captain James T. Kirk, has added his voice saying we must act now to save our planet.</p>
<p>This trend signifies the increasing urgency of the climate crisis and its recognition across various sectors of society. The blend of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-little-humour-may-help-with-climate-change-gloom-125860">humour and science clarifies complex environmental issues</a>, making it more relatable to an everyday audience. It underscores comedy’s influence in driving change and awareness, presenting a potent strategy for addressing one of today’s most critical challenges and an alternative to the direct action activism of <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-stop-oil-attack-the-rokeby-venus-how-the-group-is-using-the-suffragettes-disruptive-tactics-to-shape-public-opinion-210018">Just Stop Oil</a> and other groups.</p>
<p>The irony, as Jo Brand would say, is that we have all the solutions at hand. Renewable energy is cheaper, safer, cleaner and more secure than fossil fuels. But globally, according to the International Monetary Fund, we subsidised fossil fuel use to the tune of <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies">US$7 trillion (£5.5 trillion)</a> in 2023 – up US$2 trillion on the previous year. As Brand said, “even the dinosaurs did not subsidise their own extinction”.</p>
<p>This is why the comedy films invite everyone to step up and act to pressure governments for urgent change, ending with a call to ban new fossil fuel investment and the rallying cry: “All hands on deck now.” </p>
<p>Even the climate summit <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-five-major-outcomes-from-the-latest-un-climate-summit-219655">COP28</a>, held in a major petrostate, the United Arab Emirates, called for a transition away from fossil fuels. But we are not moving anywhere near fast enough. And why should billions of people suffer just because a few people and countries want to make huge profits from selling us polluting fossil fuels? That is just not funny.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is the UNFCCC designated point of contact for UCL. He is co-director of the London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is a member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board, Sheep Included Ltd, Lansons and NetZeroNow advisory boards. He has received grant funding from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, CIFF, Sprint2020, and British Council. He has received funding from the BBC, Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.</span></em></p>Climate scientist Mark Maslin pairs up with comedian Jo Brand to explain the urgency of the climate crisis. Together, they find that humour cuts through in ways that plain facts just can’t.Mark Maslin, Professor of Natural Sciences, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232882024-02-19T12:48:32Z2024-02-19T12:48:32ZFive reasons why Trump’s Republican opponents were never going to beat him<p>Donald Trump’s inexorable march to the 2024 Republican presidential nomination has sparked plenty of second-guessing. What could his opponents, including former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Florida governor Ron DeSantis, have done differently to topple him? </p>
<p>The impulse to answer that question is understandable. The twice-impeached Trump started the primary season with <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/">less than 50% support from the Republican electorate</a>. The logic was if just one alternative could catch fire, a one-on-one matchup could at least spark a competitive race.</p>
<p>The reality? There is no answer. Much to the dismay of critics, hindsight tells us that Trump was right in framing 2024 as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-as-the-first-republican-primary-looms-a-trump-win-looks-inevitable-but-who-comes-second-matters-218473">coronation, not a primary</a>. His opponents ran far from flawless campaigns. But even if they’d been near-perfect, Trump’s <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-inevitable-republican-nominee-election-2024-5a8cfe91">nomination was inevitable</a>. </p>
<p>Here are five reasons why.</p>
<h2>1. Criminal prosecutions</h2>
<p>Nothing boosted Trump’s momentum — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/us/politics/desantis-trump-indictments-primary.html#:%7E:text=Ron%20DeSantis%20of%20Florida%20said,of%20this%20stuff%2C%E2%80%9D%20Mr.">upwards</a> — more than the cascade of criminal prosecutions he’s faced. The fact that the <a href="https://manhattanda.org/district-attorney-bragg-announces-34-count-felony-indictment-of-former-president-donald-j-trump/">first indictment to land</a>, a dubious charge for falsifying business records in New York, was also the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/02/trump-new-york-trial-first/">substantive “runt” of the litter</a> only helped his cause.</p>
<p>True to his brand of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/18/us/politics/trump-law-order-economy.html">“grievance politics”</a>, Trump effectively framed himself as the victim of a politically motivated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/02/donald-trump-escalate-attacks-against-manhattan-da">witch hunt</a> by a Democrat district attorney. That narrative only grew as more indictments — <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/10/13/trump-support-indictments/">91 in total</a>, spanning two federal cases and another felony case in Georgia — stacked up.</p>
<p>Trump didn’t get a bump in the polls after every successive indictment. Yet the first prosecution was more than enough to propel him. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump’s numbers <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/did-donald-trumps-indictments-boost-his-poll-numbers-1832694">rose about six percentage points</a> in the first week after he was charged. Since then, he’s not looked back. </p>
<h2>2. Ballot disqualifications</h2>
<p>Trump didn’t need even more help to make his case that Democrats were <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-indictment-republicans-say-biden-weaponizing-doj-rcna87962">“weaponizing”</a> the legal system against him. But he got it anyway in the form of two major efforts to disqualify him from running for office under the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv">14th Amendment</a> for allegedly engaging in “insurrection” on January 6 2021 (the attack on the Capitol). </p>
<p>In December, the Colorado Supreme Court handed Trump an early Christmas present by <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67768873">ruling</a> in a 4-3 decision on his ineligibility. Later that month, Maine’s Democrat secretary of state <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/maine-kicks-trump-off-ballot-under-14th-amendment-00133294">followed suit</a> in issuing a similar decree. </p>
<p>Right on cue, Trump doubled down by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/20/trump-response-colorado-disqualified-2024-ballot">decrying</a> the decision to disqualify him as “the most anti-democratic opinion I’ve seen in my lifetime”. He used <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/trump-fundraises-colorado-decision-legal-clashes-boosted-donations-rcna130651#:%7E:text=Charlie%20Neibergall%20%2F%20AP-,Trump%20fundraises%20off%20of%20Colorado%20decision%2C%20after%20past%20legal%20clashes,donations%20per%20campaign%20finance%20reports.">fundraising</a> to bolster his position in the polls, and cement his position as a martyr for the right-wing base. </p>
<h2>3. Electability, folks</h2>
<p>For Republican elites, a big strike against Trump was his supposed unelectability. Cue DeSantis, who’d <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/us/politics/desantis-wins-florida-governor.html">won the governorship in the swing state of Florida</a> by a whopping 19 percentage points in 2022. Also enter Haley, who’d enjoyed an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/17/why-nikki-haleys-endorsement-is-so-good-for-marco-rubio-and-so-devastating-for-jeb-bush/">80-plus percent approval rating</a> while governor of South Carolina in the mid-2010s. </p>
<p>The electability argument, however, failed to resonate with rank-and-file voters. Not for no reason. Republicans were told to go with the “electable” candidate in 2008 in John McCain. They lost. They were told to do the same with Mitt Romney in 2012. They lost. </p>
<p>Polls also never confirmed Trump was unelectable. Today, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/">most data</a> has Trump narrowly beating Biden in the national popular vote, albeit within the statistical margin of error. They also show Trump with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html">significant leads in key battleground</a> states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and elsewhere.</p>
<h2>4. Backing from the party machine</h2>
<p>Recent months have dispelled misplaced hopes among anti-Trumpers that Republican party leaders would throw their weight behind another candidate, or act as neutral power brokers in the primaries. Instead, the GOP party machine has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/two-contests-rnc-risks-putting-thumb-scale-trump-rcna135813">“put its thumb on the scale”</a> for Trump. </p>
<p>That’s true rhetorically. No sooner had Trump won his second primary in New Hampshire that Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-haley-rnc-republican-mcdaniel-99230edb3e2f5c41dc7ceb11a8a0ba6a">declared</a>: “We need to unite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump, and we need to make sure we beat Joe Biden.” </p>
<p>Party rule changes have also aided Trump. Take Nevada, for example, where the state GOP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/06/how-nevada-primary-caucus-works-vote">bucked</a> the scheduled primary and instead held a caucus where Trump was the only major candidate on the ballot. The result: Haley got trounced by <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/nikki-haley-loses-to-none-of-these-candidates-in-nevada-primary-as-trump-supporters-stage-protest-vote-13066011#:%7E:text=Presidential%20hopeful%20Nikki%20Haley%20has,members%20of%20the%20Republican%20Party.">“none of these candidates”</a> in the defunct primary. Trump captured <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/09/nevada-caucus-takeaway-trump-wins/72437364007/">all 26 official delegates</a> destined for the Republican National Convention. </p>
<h2>5. Craving the real deal</h2>
<p>Who wants a calorie-condensed version of Trumpism when Trump Ultra is on tap? More than anything, that sums up the average GOP voter’s response to speculation that a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/25/gop-2024-trump-471565">“Trump Lite”</a> candidate was what conservatives really craved.</p>
<p>Many experts theorised that a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/16/iowa-caucus-results-trump-biden-aftermath/">“less feral, more pastel”</a> alternative to Trump would be welcomed by a silent majority of Republicans who were turned off by Trump’s foul mouth, impulsiveness and “bull-in-a-china-shop” mentality.</p>
<p>That theory’s been debunked. Yes, Trump-backed candidates <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump">got trounced in the 2022 midterms</a>. Yes, the Make America Great Again (Maga) vote didn’t turn out to complete the expected <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63569850">“red wave” that everyone in the party expected</a>.</p>
<p>But Trump wasn’t on that ballot. He’s a singularly iconoclastic figure whose appeal can’t be measured through proxies or wannabes. </p>
<p>The reality: GOP voters never wanted Trumpism without Trump. Instead, they wanted Trumpism with Trump. Or more precisely, <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2024/01/22/ron-desantis-ends-his-campaign-in-the-face-of-a-republican-electorate-which-craves-donald-trump/">they just wanted Trump</a>. The fact that <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html">nearly 70% of Republican voters still believe the “Big Lie”</a> — that the 2020 was rigged — only added to the feeling that Trump was “owed” a second chance at the nomination. </p>
<p>Inevitably, they’ll get their wish.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump started his march towards election with less than 50% support from the Republican electorate.Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.