tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-cambridge-1283/articlesThe University of Cambridge2024-03-22T16:20:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254062024-03-22T16:20:58Z2024-03-22T16:20:58ZIndustrialisation is still vital to economic development but some countries are struggling to reap its benefits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581880/original/file-20240314-28-tax1ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5920%2C4642&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industrial-worker-factory-welding-closeup-218715772">SvedOliver/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Alexander Hamilton, one of the founding fathers of the US, wrote a wealth of reports that served as building blocks for the country’s economic system. In 1791, during his time as secretary of the Treasury, Hamilton published one of his most important: the <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-10-02-0001-0007">Report on the Subject of Manufactures</a>. </p>
<p>It argued that the US needed to develop its manufacturing sector through the use of industrial and trade policy to grow its economy, bolster its military, increase its productivity, and catch up with the industrial and technological powerhouse of the time, Great Britain. </p>
<p>Hamilton died in 1804. But US policymakers, led by Henry Clay, followed Hamilton’s advice. Throughout the 19th century, the US succeeded in its mission of catching up with Great Britain and eventually became the world’s technological superpower.</p>
<p>It’s important that we remember Hamilton’s report. It’s a reminder of how thinking and strategising for economic growth and international competitiveness was changing. It was changing to a mindset that national sovereignty, economic development, international competitiveness and productivity growth are achieved through industrialisation. </p>
<p>But this long-established relationship between economic prosperity and industrialisation is now starting to change. So-called “megatrends” (technological, economic, societal and ecological trends that have a global impact) are changing traditional ideas of technological progress and, as a result, the way countries look to develop their economies. </p>
<p>My book <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-future-of-the-factory-9780198861584?cc=gb&lang=en#">The Future of the Factory</a> investigates how four megatrends are changing (and not changing) industrialisation and manufacturing-led growth. These megatrends are: the rise of services, digital automation technology, globalisation of production and ecological breakdown.</p>
<h2>Digital technology</h2>
<p>In some ways, megatrends are not changing or diminishing the importance of manufacturing-led development. </p>
<p>Digital services are increasingly seen as an alternative to manufacturing in boosting economic development. But they are not replacing the manufacturing sector as the engine of innovation and productivity growth. The manufacturing sector still scores <a href="https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/155731631771398616/at-your-service-the-promise-of-services-led-development">substantially higher</a> than the service sector on tradeability, innovation potential and spillovers to other parts of the economy.</p>
<p>Digital automation technology has also undoubtedly been disruptive in some sectors and countries. But they are not a significant threat to overall job displacement. This is primarily because automation technology tends to create more jobs than it displaces. </p>
<p>The introduction of the personal computer (PC) is a great example. In the US, the PC <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages">created</a> 15.8 million more jobs than it displaced between 1980 and 2015. Research has also <a href="https://www.oecd.org/els/what-happened-to-jobs-at-high-risk-of-automation-10bc97f4-en.htm">found</a> that the countries who faced a higher overall automation risk in the early 2010s experienced higher employment growth than other countries in subsequent years. </p>
<p>It seems we are excessively hyping up the expected impact of new technology on economic organisation, as we have done so many times in the past. Industrialisation and factory-based production remain crucial for economic development and innovation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People sat at desks using computers in an office." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581762/original/file-20240313-16-fvu77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581762/original/file-20240313-16-fvu77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581762/original/file-20240313-16-fvu77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581762/original/file-20240313-16-fvu77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581762/original/file-20240313-16-fvu77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581762/original/file-20240313-16-fvu77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581762/original/file-20240313-16-fvu77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The PC has created many more jobs than it has displaced.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/diverse-multiracial-workers-sitting-desk-working-1295892817">fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Uneven opportunities</h2>
<p>Power asymmetries in the world economy are, however, creating uneven opportunities to reap the benefits from industrialisation. At worst, they are making it harder for developing countries to industrialise altogether. </p>
<p>Transnational corporations based in high-income countries are more powerful than ever. And they often use this power to prevent countries, firms and workers in developing countries from getting a fair share of profits in global production systems. </p>
<p>Apple, for example, doesn’t actually “make” the iPhone. It outsources the production of every single component. But Apple still somehow manages to walk away with over 50% of the final retail price.</p>
<p>By contrast, the firms and workers in developing countries who assemble the iPhone (the most labour intensive part of the process) get <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-future-of-the-factory-9780198861584?cc=gb&lang=en#">less than 1.5%</a> of the final price. Large corporations like Apple also use their power to lobby for international trade agreements to work in their interests. </p>
<p>Additionally, high-income countries refuse to take their fair share of blame for ecological breakdown. They preach green industrial policy to developing countries before putting their own house in order. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00044-4/fulltext">study</a> found that high-income countries were responsible for 74% of global excess resource use between 1970 and 2017, despite accounting for only 15% of the world’s population. By contrast, low-income and lower-middle income countries, which make up around 50% of the world’s population, accounted for a mere 1% of global excess resource use over this period. </p>
<p>Given these developments, our system of international trade needs to be reformed so that it is fair rather than “free”. And developing countries should also have more ecological policy space in their implementation of industrial policy. The burden to deal with ecological breakdown should fall mainly on high-income countries, as these are the countries that got us into this mess.</p>
<h2>The return of industrial policy</h2>
<p>In many ways, Alexander Hamilton’s insights are still timely. Hamilton stressed the urgent need for policymakers to build up manufacturing capabilities to achieve economic growth and development. </p>
<p>This is what the US government is currently doing in an effort to re-industrialise its economy and especially to become more competitive with China. In July 2022, the US Senate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/senate-chips-china.html">passed</a> a historic US$280 billion (£222 billion) industrial policy bill — the largest industrial policy bill in history. </p>
<p>And the US is not the only country actively revamping industrial policy. The global use of industrial policy is at an <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/12/23/The-Return-of-Industrial-Policy-in-Data-542828">all-time high</a> as the world grapples with geopolitical tension and shocks to global supply chains. Although megatrends are changing industrialisation in some ways, they are not changing its importance. </p>
<p>We can also use Hamilton’s insights to understand the nature of competition in the modern world economy. The world economy is vastly different today, but we need to understand, like Hamilton understood, that industrialisation is a competitive game that involves power, politics, dirty play – and even warfare. </p>
<p>If the playing field is level, competition isn’t all that bad. But the global playing field today certainly isn’t level when it comes to the distribution of industrial and technological capabilities. This is one of the main obstacles to economic development in the 21st century.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225406/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jostein Hauge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In an era of transformation, manufacturing still matters.Jostein Hauge, Assistant Professor in Development Studies, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261502024-03-22T10:15:52Z2024-03-22T10:15:52ZWilliam Blake’s Universe: making a European out of the poet and artist who never left England<p>William Blake’s Universe, the new (free) <a href="https://www.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk/plan-your-visit/exhibitions/william-blakes-universe">exhibition</a> at the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge, is a celebration of work by the <a href="https://www.tate.org.uk/art/art-terms/romanticism">Romantic artist</a>, writer and visionary. </p>
<p>Famous now but little known in his lifetime, Blake (1757-1827) has been given star billing by <a href="https://www.tate.org.uk/whats-on/tate-britain/william-blake-artist">Tate Britain</a> recently. But at the Fitzwilliam, he is made to share the spotlight with fellow artists from Britain and Germany, notably <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Philipp-Otto-Runge">Philipp Otto Runge</a> (1777-1810), whose luminous <a href="https://online-sammlung.hamburger-kunsthalle.de/de/objekt/HK-1016/der-morgen-erste-fassung?term=&filter%255Bobj_actuallocation_s%255D%255B0%255D=19.%2520Jahrhundert&filter%255Bfacet_obj_artistName%255D%255B0%255D=Philipp%2520Otto%2520Runge&context=default&position=9">The Small Morning</a> hangs in the exhibition’s final room.</p>
<p>The approach of exhibition curators David Bindman and Esther Chadwick is quietly provocative. Blake is known tb as a poet, he never left Britain, and he never met Runge. He was also a contrarian, with broadly anti-establishment views. So what is at stake in reframing Blake as a European artist, and does the exhibition convince?</p>
<h2>Blake’s universe</h2>
<p>The exhibition’s title and the life-sized cast of Blake’s head that greets you as you enter, suggest its aim will be to present a trip inside his mind. And to an extent, it does. The bulk of work on display is by Blake himself, much of it drawn from the Fitzwilliam Museum’s own magnificent collection.</p>
<p>Particular highlights are Blake’s glowing drawing <a href="https://www.britishmuseum.org/collection/object/P_1856-0209-417">Albion Rose</a> and the mysterious <a href="https://blakearchive.org/copy/europe.k?descId=europe.k.illbk.01">Ancient of Days</a>, his beautifully coloured, hand-printed poems <a href="https://blakearchive.org/copy/america.o?descId=america.o.illbk.02">America</a> and <a href="https://blakearchive.org/work/europe">Europe</a>, and his energetic re-interpretations of ancient Greek sculptures like the <a href="https://data.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk/id/image/media-6749">Laocoön</a>.</p>
<p>Also on display are spectacular works by other artists, including Benjamin West’s <a href="https://www.royalacademy.org.uk/art-artists/work-of-art/death-on-the-pale-horse-1">Death on the Pale Horse</a> and Caspar David Friedrich’s series of seven sketches in sepia, <a href="https://www.museothyssen.org/en/collection/artists/friedrich-caspar-david">Ages of Man</a> (Die Lebensalter).</p>
<p>Evidently this “universe” does not belong to Blake alone. It is rather a shared imaginative and cultural space, inhabited by Blake and other Romantic artists across Europe from the 1770s to the 1820s. </p>
<p>Portraits of the main players appear in the exhibition’s ante-room. First Runge, whose soulful self-portrait is twinned with Blake’s life mask at the entrance. Then John Flaxman, James Barry, and Henry Fuseli, whom Blake knew personally, and Asmus Jacob Carstens and Caspar David Friedrich, whom he did not. </p>
<h2>Blake the artist?</h2>
<p>It is revelatory to see Blake in the company of artists like these. Poems like The Tyger, London and the verse <a href="https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/54684/jerusalem-and-did-those-feet-in-ancient-time">And did those feet</a> (better known as the hymn Jerusalem, after it was set to music by Hubert Parry in 1916), mark Blake out as a poet.</p>
<p>In fact he was this and more. The online <a href="https://www.blakearchive.org">William Blake Archive</a> hints at the range of his work rendered in text, engraving, printmaking, drawing and painting. </p>
<p>It was rare for Blake to write a poem without illustrating it. Working with his wife Catherine, he hand-engraved, hand-coloured and hand-printed “illuminated books” of his verses, releasing dozens of copies over his lifetime essentially as small press editions. </p>
<p>However, he made his living creating and selling visual art – engravings and book illustrations – to commercial publishers. He also produced single and serial works of art for private patrons. </p>
<p>Blake aspired to be better known as an artist (and writer too), and to share his work with a larger audience. But his career floundered, hampered by the precariousness of the art market during the Napoleonic wars, the low social status of his commercial engraving, and his contrary views.</p>
<h2>The exhibition</h2>
<p>The bold exhibition design ensures there is a strong central narrative. Each room focuses on the engagement by European artists with the past, present and future. </p>
<p>The past is that of classical antiquity and the old masters, whose works were copied and repurposed by artists across Europe as they honed their skills in academy schools. The present is that of war and revolution, in America, France and Haiti. The future is that of spiritual renewal, conceived of variously in mystical, Christian, pantheistic and nationalist terms. </p>
<p>Within this historical narrative are clustered smaller scenes which reward attentive viewing. Sketches after Michelangelo, visits to a leper hospital, and the mystical Christian philosophy of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jakob-Bohme">Jakob Böhme</a> are just some of the themes identified and shown to be common concerns among what initially may seem like a disparate group of artists.</p>
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<p>The exhibition architecture invites active engagement too. Separated pages of Blake’s illuminated book, Europe, are displayed on a corrugated screen zig-zagging across the central room, jagged as a bolt of lightning – a phenomenon associated with political revolution. </p>
<p>Early on in the exhibition, a window is cut from the “past” to the “future”, complicating the historical narrative. Is it true that we always progress, that things always get better?</p>
<h2>Blake the European?</h2>
<p>Blake never had the funds to travel to mainland Europe, nor was he sponsored by one of his patrons to go to Rome. He also never read German, although he did learn Italian later in life, and illustrated Dante. </p>
<p>He was not, like <a href="https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poets/samuel-taylor-coleridge">Samuel Taylor Coleridge</a>, influenced by German idealist philosophy. But to be schooled at the Royal Academy, as Blake was from 1779 to 1785, was to learn from European models. And to have a <a href="https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/display/document/obo-9780199730414/obo-9780199730414-0029.xml">Moravian</a> (a type of Protestant) mother may have included learning German songs and hymns in childhood.</p>
<p>The Bible, Dante, Shakespeare, the mystics Böhme and Emanuel Swedenborg were all favourites of Blake’s, and commonly read across continental Europe. Add to this the reverberations of revolution, war, trade, imperialism – all of which sound in Blake’s art and poetry – and it’s clear that Blake was not insular in his outlook.</p>
<p>The question of Blake’s Europeanness is posed everywhere in this exhibition, but never overtly. The working title “Blake in Europe”, was lost along the way. Never quite asked are further questions about the limits of the shared European Romantic culture that the exhibition promotes. Which culture, or cultures, you could ask, and whose?</p>
<p>As <a href="https://blakesociety.org/open-letter-to-the-guardian/">Sibylle Erle, Chair of the Blake Society</a> has said: “For us, Blake is for everybody.” Go to William Blake’s Universe if you can, and see what you think.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226150/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Haggarty works for the University of Cambridge, to which the Fitzwilliam Museum belongs. Sarah Haggarty wrote an essay for the exhibition catalogue for William Blake's Universe. </span></em></p>A subtle and thoughtful show, full of shimmering connections that put Blake back in touch with European art figures and influences.Sarah Haggarty, Associate Professor in English, University of Cambridge, and Fellow and Director of Studies in English, Queens' College, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252472024-03-10T21:14:22Z2024-03-10T21:14:22ZAdiós al Antropoceno: la geología concluye que no habitamos en una época humana<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580696/original/file-20240308-18-jut003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C456%2C2859%2C1739&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Los radionucleidos esparcidos tras las detonaciones de bombas termonucleares fueron propuestos como marcador para fijar el comienzo del Antropoceno.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/x-ray_delta_one/3812795111/in/photolist-6NVz9K-2opLrbg-2opHHHB-2opHHqx-2mBbXio-EnMPfs-2nAmi4n-2nAkSGF-2nZqj36-DsohWo-2nAHMmz-2nAzgFA-2eryfu1-2oRCjhr-9NH9LR-aShDft-2kLVsmD-dMgsJe-2kLRMmw-2n8bW9i-2n3MnRe-2o9u7BA-Lkwred-2m6zpqo-2o9zfE5-2kU6bsn-2iJ7FcS-2nXerdn-2nAjZ4o-2nXdtu2-2ndE51B-RVGKZP-9M2DZZ-LSL9K-2nXdtyA-2nXer4K-2gGUuiX-2m6EJwy-2o9xYgm-2o9u7uX-MxynM-a5FqzJ-2jjASJJ-2iJ7FgK-2nAKkwn-2n3Qj38-2nXeQHm-2ocQwkk-2jjzFJt-2ocPBPD">x-ray delta one/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Durante las últimas dos décadas, el término “<a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antropoceno">Antropoceno</a>” ha aparecido en múltiples titulares, documentales, pódcast y revistas de investigación, <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-antropoceno-cuando-ciencias-y-letras-convergen-124186">tanto de ciencias naturales como de humanidades y ciencias sociales</a>. A menudo se ha utilizado informalmente como una nueva “época geológica” donde el ser humano es el principal agente de transformación del planeta. El cambio climático antropogénico, la acidificación de los océanos y la pérdida de biodiversidad son algunos síntomas que lo ilustran.</p>
<p>Sin embargo, nunca estuvo claro cuándo y dónde comenzaron estos efectos sobre el planeta desde el punto de vista <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estratigraf%C3%ADa">estratigráfico</a>, es decir, cuál era su huella en los sedimentos. De ahí que, después de 15 años de investigación no exenta de crítica, el <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">Grupo de Trabajo sobre el Antropoceno</a> propusiera fijar formalmente su comienzo en el año 1952. La elección de esta fecha específica se basó en la posibilidad de identificar los <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiois%C3%B3topo">radionucleidos</a> esparcidos por las bombas de hidrógeno detonadas en aquel momento como un marcador quimioestratigráfico fiable.</p>
<p>Pues bien, dicha propuesta fue rechazada el pasado 4 de marzo de 2024. Doce de los dieciocho miembros de la <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/">Subcomisión de Estratigrafía del Cuaternario</a>, comité encargado de aceptar modificaciones en el ordenamiento del periodo más reciente de la Tierra, votaron en contra, según informó el <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/climate/anthropocene-epoch-vote-rejected.html"><em>New York Times</em></a>. Su conclusión ha sido clara: con los estándares utilizados para definir unidades de tiempo geológico no se puede dar por terminado el <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holoceno">Holoceno</a> y considerar estar viviendo una época diferente. </p>
<p>Como filósofo e historiador de la ciencia, he investigado de cerca la labor del Grupo de Trabajo sobre el Antropoceno desde su establecimiento en 2009 hasta el presente. En mis <a href="https://www.academia.edu/82522021/El_Antropoceno_como_concepto_cient%C3%ADfico_un_enfoque_integrativo_de_su_historia_y_axiolog%C3%ADa">estudios</a>, he mostrado cómo este proyecto ha generado tensiones en la comunidad estratigráfica. Muchos sostienen que la propuesta de formalizar una época que abarca apenas 75 años tendría un impacto negativo tanto en el ámbito científico como en el social, político y cultural.</p>
<h2>Los orígenes del término</h2>
<p>Uno de los aspectos que ha causado mayor controversia es el hecho de que el Antropoceno no fuera propuesto desde la geología, como podría imaginarse, sino que fue mencionado espontáneamente por el químico atmosférico <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_J._Crutzen">Paul Crutzen</a> en el año 2000. </p>
<p>Este científico holandés fue galardonado con el Premio Nobel de Química por sus contribuciones al entendimiento de la destrucción de la capa de ozono estratosférico y además fue uno de los líderes científicos de la nueva <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciencia_del_sistema_Tierra">ciencia del sistema Tierra</a>. </p>
<p>Este nuevo paradigma trajo como novedad la comprensión de la Tierra como un único sistema autorregulado, integrando los distintos subsistemas que venían estudiándose por separado –la atmósfera, hidrosfera, biosfera, etc.– y estudiando los fenómenos que emergen en sus interacciones. </p>
<p>Desde ese momento, el término comenzó a popularizarse encapsulando una idea disruptiva: el sistema Tierra había entrado en un estado de funcionamiento no análogo a ningún tiempo anterior, incluyendo hechos como la alteración de ciclos biogeoquímicos, el aumento de la contaminación por plástico y otros residuos sólidos y la contaminación del aire, agua y suelo debido a la actividad industrial y urbana, entre otros. Todo quedó sintetizado en la <a href="http://www.igbp.net/about/history/2001amsterdamdeclarationonearthsystemscience.4.1b8ae20512db692f2a680001312.html#:%7E:text=Anthropogenic%20changes%20to%20Earth's%20land,in%20their%20extent%20and%20impact.">Declaración de Amsterdam</a> en 2001 sobre la recién constituida ciencia del sistema Tierra.</p>
<p>Mientras tanto, para la geología –disciplina que tradicionalmente se encarga de ordenar la historia de la Tierra– los seres humanos hemos estado viviendo en el <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holoceno">Holoceno</a> desde que finalizó la última glaciación, es decir, alrededor del año 9700 a. e. c. Esta época se ha caracterizado por un clima relativamente estable y un entorno propicio para el desarrollo de la civilización humana tal como la conocemos hoy en día.</p>
<p>Crutzen propuso, no obstante, que un nuevo tiempo humano había comenzado con la Revolución Industrial a finales del siglo XVIII –hecho evidenciado bajo el paradigma de la ciencia del sistema Tierra– y cuyo inicio quizás podría fijarse con eventos como la <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A1quina_de_vapor_de_Watt">invención de la máquina de vapor en 1769 por James Watt</a>. </p>
<p>La propuesta se hizo tan popular que pocos años después, en 2008, <a href="https://rock.geosociety.org/net/gsatoday/archive/18/2/pdf/i1052-5173-18-2-4.pdf">llamó lo suficiente la atención a la comunidad estratigráfica</a> como para iniciar un proyecto para convertir el Antropoceno de un término informal a una época geológica formal con todas las letras. </p>
<h2>En busca de un límite estratigráfico</h2>
<p>Desde su formación, el grupo ha investigado distintas opciones para fijar el comienzo exacto del Antropoceno, siendo alrededor de 1950 la alternativa finalmente más respaldada, una idea que fue promovida inicialmente con la publicación de los gráficos de la llamada “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Acceleration#:%7E:text=The%20Great%20Acceleration%20is%20the,and%20continuing%20to%20this%20day.">gran aceleración del siglo XX</a>”. </p>
<p>Estos gráficos reflejaban la abrumadora evidencia del punto de inflexión tras la finalización de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, donde el impacto humano en el sistema Tierra aumentó de forma exponencial en múltiples variables.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Gráfica que muestra el aumento de diferentes variables entre 1750 y 2010." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580650/original/file-20240308-18-vwhdii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evolución de variables del sistema Tierra entre 1750 y 2010 mostrando la ‘gran aceleración’ del Antropoceno.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ca.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitxer:Anthropocene-GreatAccelerationEarthSystemTrends-1750-2010.png">Bryanmackinnon / Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>En este momento histórico, <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiois%C3%B3topo">radioisótopos</a> como el plutonio-239, el cesio-137 o el estroncio-90 fueron dispersados por todo el planeta debido a las pruebas de bombas termonucleares realizadas a principios de la década de 1950. Estos isótopos radiactivos se depositaron en sedimentos marinos, suelos, plantas y otros registros geológicos. </p>
<p>De hecho, <a href="https://theconversation.com/un-lago-canadiense-sera-el-enclave-que-marque-el-inicio-del-antropoceno-199522">el pico de plutonio en los sedimentos del lago Crawford cerca de Toronto, Canadá, fue seleccionado como el “clavo dorado” para marcar el inicio del Antropoceno</a>, proporcionando inicialmente una evidencia bastante clara para formalizar un cambio de época.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580493/original/file-20240307-22-mxk09h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ejemplo de <em>clavo dorado</em> para la base del piso Luteciense –la etapa temporal de hace 48,6 millones de años–, localizado cerca del acantilado marino de Gorrondatxe, Getxo (Bizkaia).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">José Luis Granados</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Entonces, ¿por qué se ha descartado formalizarlo?</h2>
<p>A pesar de que el Grupo de Trabajo sobre el Antropoceno <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170323105745.htm">ha argumentado que hay cambios irreversibles a escala geológica causados por la actividad humana en la superficie terrestre</a>, fuera del rango de variablidad natural del Holoceno, varios expertos de la subcomisión encargada de evaluar la proposición afirman que su definición es demasiado limitada. </p>
<p>Según Philip Gibbard, geólogo de la Universidad de Cambridge, la proposición “sugiere que, en el lapso de mi propia vida, los cambios que están afectando al planeta aparecieron de repente”. En una reunión interna, ha afirmado que ha sido rechazada porque “de hecho, los humanos han estado influyendo en el medio ambiente natural durante 40 000 años”.</p>
<p>Otro tanto <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/climate/anthropocene-epoch-vote-rejected.html">da a entender Jan A. Piotrowski</a>, miembro del comité, para quien lo sugerido “limita, confina y estrecha toda la importancia del Antropoceno”. En concreto, se pregunta: “¿Qué estaba ocurriendo durante el inicio de la agricultura? ¿Qué hay de la Revolución Industrial? ¿Qué pasa con la colonización de América, de Australia?”.</p>
<p>Además, suponiendo que esta primera evaluación hubiera sido superada, aún hubieran quedado obstáculos difíciles de superar. Stanley C. Finney, secretario general de la Unión Internacional de Ciencias Geológicas y quien ya había calificado la propuesta de <a href="https://rock.geosociety.org/net/gsatoday/archive/26/3/article/i1052-5173-26-3-4.htm">más política que científica</a>, critica que desde el principio se asegurara una categorización como “época” y se ignoraran o contrarrestaran propuestas para una designación menos formal del Antropoceno. </p>
<p>Si hubieran hecho su propuesta formal antes, podrían haber evitado mucho tiempo perdido, <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/anthropocene-dead-long-live-anthropocene">agrega Finney</a>: “Habría sido rechazada 10 años antes si no hubieran evitado presentarla a la comunidad estratigráfica para su consideración cuidadosa”. </p>
<p>En resumidas cuentas, algunas de las principales razones del rechazo tienen relación con tratar de establecer un inicio en una fecha tan reciente y con muestras demasiado superficiales como para representar ampliamente el impacto humano en los estratos y equipararlo a los grandes cambios epocales que ha experimentado la Tierra en millones de años.</p>
<p>De todas maneras, las discusiones sobre un posible tiempo geológico de impronta humana aún no han terminado, aunque los defensores del Antropoceno ahora tendrán que esperar una década antes de que su propuesta pueda ser considerada nuevamente. Es probable que el término siga siendo utilizado informalmente. También es posible que se acepte el concepto en la categoría de “<a href="https://www.episodes.org/journal/view.html?doi=10.18814/epiiugs/2021/021029">evento geológico</a>”, como se ha sugerido últimamente al ser una opción menos comprometida. </p>
<p>Pero lo que es bastante improbable es que en un futuro próximo se declare oficialmente que habitamos en la época geológica del Antropoceno.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>José Luis Granados Mateo recibe fondos del Programa Posdoctoral de Perfeccionamiento de Personal
Investigador Doctor del Gobierno Vasco.</span></em></p>Recientemente, doce de los dieciocho miembros de la Subcomisión de Estratigrafía del Cuaternario, el comité encargado de aceptar modificaciones en el ordenamiento del periodo más reciente de la Tierra, votaron en contra de aceptar el fin del Holoceno y el inicio de una época diferente.José Luis Granados Mateo, Researcher, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217842024-03-10T06:42:49Z2024-03-10T06:42:49ZNigeria’s ancient Ilorin city - archaeologist uncovers over 1,000 years of history<p>Ilorin, the capital of Kwara State, is a Nigerian city with a long and rich history. However, much of its distant past is not well known. Archaeology is now uncovering more of this history and the relationships of Ilorin to other ancient parts of the Yoruba world.</p>
<p>Situated in north-central Nigeria and predominantly Yoruba-speaking, Ilorin <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1848903.The_History_of_the_Yorubas">gained prominence</a> in the late 1700s. It was a significant northern province of the Oyo empire, which was active <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9781032617077-13/decline-fall-old-oyo-robert-smith">between the 1500s and early 1800s</a>. </p>
<p>Thanks to its strategic location between savannah and forest regions of present-day Nigeria and its connection to the Oyo empire, Ilorin <a href="https://openlibrary.org/works/OL2676045W/The_economic_history_of_Ilorin_in_the_nineteenth_and_twentieth_centuries?edition=">evolved</a> into a centre of inter-regional trade networks, craft production and cultural exchanges by the 1800s. The city was renowned for trade in horses, agricultural produce, and crafts such as lantana stone beads, textiles and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1160631">pottery</a> within the Yoruba-Edo worlds and across west Africa. Ilorin also served as a <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Power_Relations_in_Nigeria.html?id=uA6Sk8X00qoC&redir_esc=y">trading hub for enslaved people</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, in the 1800s, Ilorin <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=sYkuAQAAIAAJ&source=gbs_book_similarbooks">became integrated into the Islamic emirate system</a> under the Sokoto caliphate. This integration resulted in significant socio-political changes and contributed to the expansion of the city. </p>
<p>While oral traditions and written sources have preserved much of Ilorin’s history, the longer-term occupation of the city before the 1800s remained largely unknown until recent archaeological research. This contrasts with the situation in Ilorin’s surrounding communities like <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1025673401280">Igbominaland</a>, Ede and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43916859">Osogbo</a>, where archaeological studies have provided insights into their settlement histories.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/92542/">doctoral research on Ilorin archaeology</a> sheds new light on this period. It uncovers over 1,000 years of human occupation in the city before the 1800s. This research started the process of unravelling the city’s previously unknown settlement history and its connections to wider Yoruba worlds. The material evidence from this research takes various forms, including material technology, settlement patterns, architecture, rituals and food. </p>
<p>My research investigated 10 units of various sizes, seven of which were excavated. It documented a diverse suite of material culture, including abundant potsherds of various types, potsherd pavements, rock-based or stone tools, animal remains, shell and metal. I compared these findings from Ilorin with those from the wider Yorubaland, focusing particularly on the major centres of Ile-Ife and Oyo. </p>
<p>Ile-Ife <a href="https://search.worldcat.org/title/31069933">occupies</a> a central place in Yoruba history and civilisation. Claimed to be <a href="https://search.worldcat.org/title/134236">the harbinger of Yoruba civilisation</a>, it is <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2237309">associated with important material evidence</a>, including terracotta, early glass making and potsherd pavements. Oyo <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1179/jfa.1990.17.3.367">served</a> as the capital of the Oyo empire, which collapsed in the early 1800s.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-found-the-earliest-glass-production-south-of-the-sahara-and-what-it-means-142059">How we found the earliest glass production south of the Sahara, and what it means</a>
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<h2>Potsherds and potsherd pavements</h2>
<p>My research on early Ilorin centred mainly on potsherds. In archaeology, potsherds tell us a lot about the characteristics of past societies and how they interacted with their environment. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.africabib.org/rec.php?RID=064978893">Potsherd pavements</a> stand out as an ancient architectural feature linked to the social complexities of west Africa. Potsherds are broken pieces of ceramic materials and potsherd pavements are paved ways, floors or courtyards made of potsherds. They are sometimes combined with stones, pebbles or cobbles. They can be laid flat or on edge in a pattern. Potsherds and potsherd pavements provide <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305440308001763">insights</a> into past technology, innovation, economy, social identity, architecture and rituals. They can also expand understanding of social interactions on a regional scale.</p>
<p>Ilorin potsherd pavements present an ideal case study of regional interactions. </p>
<p>The Oyo empire’s capital was about 60km north-west of Ilorin. Despite their connections, the two societies had different kinds of potsherd pavements. The Oyo kingdom featured flat-laid potsherd pavements while Ilorin’s were edge-lain in herringbone patterns. This could strongly indicate a disconnection between the two centres during prehistoric times. The varied patterns observed in potsherd pavements suggest variations in technological choices among the artisans responsible for crafting these architectural structures. Patterns may also be determined by the culture responsible for the innovation. Ilorin’s edge-laid patterns are similar to those found widely in the Ile-Ife area, about 235km to the south-west. Evidence in Ilorin of buried pot remains, potentially used for ritual purposes, is also suggestive of finds at Ile-Ife and some of its surrounding towns.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-city-of-ile-if-has-survived-and-thrived-for-1-000-years-heres-how-204569">Nigeria’s city of Ilé-Ifẹ̀ has survived and thrived for 1,000 years: here’s how</a>
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<h2>My findings</h2>
<p>My research used archaeology as its prime source of data to investigate the development of the Ilorin cultural landscape, focusing on Okesuna, one of the city’s early quarters. I chose Okesuna because of the concentration of archaeological remains there, particularly potsherds and potsherd pavements. </p>
<p>The excavations also yielded rock-based or stone tools, animal remains, shell and metal objects. A combination of radiocarbon dates and potsherds analysis from Ilorin produced chronological information spanning from the mid-sixth to the pre-16th centuries AD. This covered around 1,000 years of human occupation in the area before the west Africa Atlantic contact. </p>
<p>The research in Ilorin is the first to document a first millennium AD pottery assemblage outside significant known centralised polities of Yorubaland such as Old Oyo, Ile-Ife and Benin. It is the first record of people living in the area such a long time ago.</p>
<p>The dates also suggest that the early Ilorin area was more developed than previously believed. It must have served as a significant socio-political unit at the same time as or even earlier than some important Yorùbáland centres, including Ile-Ife and Old Oyo. </p>
<p>Early Ilorin may have been a centre of innovation which facilitated free-flowing interactions across regional borders, uninhibited by pressure from major centres. </p>
<h2>Ancient politics</h2>
<p>My research demonstrates how archaeological evidence continually reshapes our understanding of the ancient politics in areas situated on the borders of major centres. </p>
<p>It shows that the settlement patterns of modern societies are an inadequate yardstick for defining pre-modern societies. This highlights the fluid and transient nature of culture. It also underscores the complexity and significance of these areas as contact zones of social interactions and cultural exchanges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bolaji Owoseni is currently affiliated with McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research Cambridge and is an Alumna of The Sainsbury Research Unit, University of East Anglia UK where she obtained her PhD. </span></em></p>New research on Ilorin in Nigeria provides insights into regional socio-political developments prior to the 19th century.Bolaji Owoseni, Research Fellow in Black Heritage, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233922024-02-15T15:58:50Z2024-02-15T15:58:50ZDisinformation threatens global elections – here’s how to fight back<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575950/original/file-20240215-22-at0x1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=180%2C90%2C5826%2C3890&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some Republicans still believe the 2020 election was "stolen" from Donald Trump.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/helena-montana-nov-7-2020-protesters-1849449790">Lyonstock/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With over half the world’s population heading to the polls in 2024, disinformation season is upon us — and the warnings are dire. The World Economic Forum <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf">declared</a> misinformation a top societal threat over the next two years and major news organisations <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/disinformation-unprecedented-threat-2024-election-rcna134290">caution</a> that disinformation poses an unprecedented threat to democracies worldwide. </p>
<p>Yet, some scholars and pundits have <a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-is-often-blamed-for-swaying-elections-the-research-says-something-else-221579">questioned</a> whether disinformation can really sway election outcomes. Others think concern over disinformation is just a <a href="https://undark.org/2023/10/26/opinion-misinformation-moral-panic/">moral panic</a> or merely a <a href="https://iai.tv/articles/misinformation-is-the-symptom-not-the-disease-daniel-walliams-auid-2690">symptom</a> rather than the cause of our societal ills. Pollster Nate Silver even thinks that misinformation “<a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1745556135157899389">isn’t a coherent concept</a>”.</p>
<p>But we argue the evidence tells a different story.</p>
<p>A 2023 study showed that the vast majority of academic <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/a-survey-of-expert-views-on-misinformation-definitions-determinants-solutions-and-future-of-the-field/">experts</a> are in agreement about how to define misinformation (namely as false and misleading content) and what this looks like (for example lies, conspiracy theories and pseudoscience). Although the study didn’t cover disinformation, such experts generally agree that this can be defined as intentional misinformation.</p>
<p>A recent paper <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44271-023-00054-5">clarified</a> that misinformation can both be a symptom and the disease. In 2022, nearly 70% of Republicans still <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jun/14/most-republicans-falsely-believe-trumps-stolen-ele/">endorsed</a> the false conspiracy theory that the 2020 US presidential election was “stolen” from Donald Trump. If Trump had never floated this theory, how would millions of people have possibly acquired these beliefs?</p>
<p>Moreover, although it is clear that people do not always act on dangerous beliefs, the January 6 US Capitol riots, incited by false claims, serve as an important reminder that a <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jun/30/misinformation-and-jan-6-insurrection-when-patriot/">misinformed</a> crowd can disrupt and undermine democracy. </p>
<p>Given that nearly 25% of elections are decided by a margin of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1419828112">under 3%</a>, mis- and disinformation can have important influence. One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379418303019">study</a> found that among previous Barack Obama voters who did not buy into any fake news about Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential election, 89% voted for Clinton. By contrast, among prior Obama voters who believed at least two fake headlines about Clinton, only 17% voted for her. </p>
<p>While this doesn’t necessarily prove that the misinformation caused the voting behaviour, we do know that <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/revealed-trump-campaign-strategy-to-deter-millions-of-black-americans-from-voting-in-2016">millions</a> of black voters were targeted with misleading ads discrediting Clinton in key swing states ahead of the election. </p>
<p>Research has shown that such micro-targeting of specific audiences based on
variables such as their personality not only influences <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1710966114">decision-making</a> but also impacts <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0093650220961965">voting intentions</a>. A recent <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae035/7591134">paper</a> illustrated how large language models can be deployed to craft micro-targeted ads at scale, estimating that for every 100,000 individuals targeted, at least several thousand can be persuaded.</p>
<p>We also know that not only are people bad at <a href="https://www.cell.com/iscience/pdf/S2589-0042(21)01335-3.pdf">discerning</a> deepfakes (AI generated images of fake events) from genuine content, studies find that deepfakes do influence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1940161220944364">political</a> attitudes among a small target group. </p>
<p>There are more indirect consequences of disinformation too, such as eroding public <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1461444820943878">trust</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2115900119">participation</a> in elections.</p>
<p>Other than hiding under our beds and worrying, what can we do to protect ourselves?</p>
<h2>The power of prebunking</h2>
<p>Many efforts have focused on fact-checking and debunking false beliefs. In contrast, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10463283.2021.1876983">“prebunking”</a> is a new way to prevent false beliefs from forming in the first place. Such “inoculation” involves warning people not to fall for a false narrative or propaganda tactic, together with an explanation as to why. </p>
<p>Misinforming rhetoric has clear <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09579265221076609">markers</a>, such as scapegoating or use of false dichotomies (there are many others), that people can learn to identify. Like a medical vaccine, the prebunk exposes the recipient to a “weakened dose” of the infectious agent (the disinformation) and refutes it in a way that confers protection. </p>
<p>For example, we created an online <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy8vzm/homeland-security-funded-this-game-about-destabilizing-a-small-us-town">game</a> for the Department of Homeland Security to empower Americans to spot foreign influence techniques during the 2020 presidential election. The weakened dose? <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-cybersecurity-agency-uses-pineapple-pizza-demonstrate-vulnerability-foreign-n1035296">Pineapple pizza</a>.</p>
<p>How could pineapple pizza possibly be the way to tackle misinformation? It shows how bad-faith actors can take an innocuous issue such as whether or not to put pineapple on pizza, and use this to try to start a culture war. They might claim it’s offensive to Italians or urge Americans not to let anybody restrict their pizza-topping freedom.</p>
<p>They can then buy bots to amplify the issue on both sides, disrupt debate – and sow chaos. Our <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/breaking-harmony-square-a-game-that-inoculates-against-political-misinformation/">results</a> showed that people improved in their ability to recognise these tactics after playing our inoculation game. </p>
<p>In 2020, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/28/1132021770/false-information-is-everywhere-pre-bunking-tries-to-head-it-off-early">Twitter</a> identified false election tropes as potential “vectors of misinformation” and sent out prebunks to millions of US users warning them of fraudulent claims, such as that voting by mail is not safe. </p>
<p>These prebunks armed people with a fact — that experts agree that voting by mail is reliable — and it worked insofar as the prebunks inspired confidence in the election process and motivated users to seek out more factual information. Other social media companies, such as <a href="https://medium.com/jigsaw/prebunking-to-build-defenses-against-online-manipulation-tactics-in-germany-a1dbfbc67a1a">Google</a> and <a href="https://sustainability.fb.com/blog/2022/10/24/climate-science-literacy-initiative/">Meta</a> have followed suit across a range of issues. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/5/2293/files/2024/02/voter-fraud-corrections-e163369556a2d7a4.pdf">paper</a> tested inoculation against false claims about the election process in the US and Brazil. Not only did it found that prebunking worked better than traditional debunking, but that the inoculation improved discernment between true and false claims, effectively reduced election fraud beliefs and improved confidence in the integrity of the upcoming 2024 elections. </p>
<p>In short, inoculation is a <a href="https://futurefreespeech.org/background-report-empowering-audiences-against-misinformation-through-prebunking/">free speech</a>-empowering intervention that can work on a global scale. When Russia was looking for a pretext to invade Ukraine, US president Joe Biden used this approach to “<a href="https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2022/3/2/22955870/opinion-how-the-white-house-prebunked-putins-lies-disinformation-joe-biden-donald-trump-russia">inoculate</a>” the world against Putin’s plan to stage and film a fabricated Ukrainian atrocity, complete with actors, a script and a movie crew. Biden declassified the intelligence and exposed the plot.</p>
<p>In effect, he warned the world not to fall for fake videos with actors pretending to be Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil. Forewarned, the international community was <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/02/26/deploying-reality-against-putin">unlikely</a> to fall for it. Russia found another pretext to invade, of course, but the point remains: forewarned is forearmed.</p>
<p>But we need not rely on government or tech firms to build <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/mental-immunity-infectious-ideas-mind-parasites-and-the-search-for-a-better-way-to-think-andy-norman?variant=39295503597646">mental immunity</a>. We can all <a href="https://interventions.withgoogle.com/static/pdf/A_Practical_Guide_to_Prebunking_Misinformation.pdf">learn</a> how to spot misinformation by studying the markers accompanying misleading rhetoric.</p>
<p>Remember that polio was a highly infectious disease that was eradicated through vaccination and herd immunity. Our challenge now is to build herd immunity to the tricks of disinformers and propagandists. </p>
<p>The future of our democracy may depend on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sander van der Linden consults for or receives funding from the UK Government's Cabinet Office, The U.S. State Department, the American Psychological Association, the US Center for Disease Control, the European Commission, the Templeton World Charity Foundation, the United Nations, the World Health Organization, Google, and Meta. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee McIntyre advises the UK Government on how to fight disinformation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Lewandowsky receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC Advanced Grant 101020961 PRODEMINFO), the
Humboldt Foundation through a research award, the Volkswagen Foundation (grant ``Reclaiming individual autonomy and democratic discourse online: How to rebalance human and algorithmic decision making''), and the European Commission (Horizon 2020 grants 964728 JITSUVAX and 101094752 SoMe4Dem). He also receives funding from Jigsaw (a technology incubator created by Google) and from UK Research and Innovation (through EU Horizon replacement funding grant number 10049415). He collaborates with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre.</span></em></p>Scientists estimate that for every 100,000 people targeted with specific political ads, several thousand can be persuaded.Sander van der Linden, Professor of Social Psychology in Society, University of CambridgeLee McIntyre, Research Fellow, Center for Philosophy and History of Science, Boston UniversityStephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2158152024-02-15T01:53:26Z2024-02-15T01:53:26ZCan we be inoculated against climate misinformation? Yes – if we prebunk rather than debunk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575202/original/file-20240213-24-2257zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=239%2C58%2C4606%2C2971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/montreal-canada-september-27-2019-woman-1547586671">Adrien Demers/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last year, the world experienced the hottest day <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/05/hottest-day-ever-recorded">ever recorded</a>, as we endured the first year where temperatures were 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial era. The link between extreme events and climate change is <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/#:%7E:text=July%202023%20saw%20extreme%20heatwaves,China%20(CNN%2C2023).">clearer than ever</a>. But that doesn’t mean climate misinformation has stopped. Far from it. </p>
<p>Misleading or incorrect information on climate still spreads like wildfire, even during the angry northern summer of 2023. Politicians falsely claimed the heatwaves were “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/09/phoenix-heat-wave-republicans-00110325">normal</a>” for summer. Conspiracy theorists claimed the devastating fires in Hawaii were ignited by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/08/11/conspiracy-theorists-go-viral-with-claim-space-lasers-are-to-blame-for-hawaii-fires/?sh=1d46579e4529">government lasers</a>. </p>
<p>People producing misinformation have shifted tactics, too, often moving from the old denial (claiming climate change isn’t happening) to the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/16/climate/climate-denial-misinformation-youtube/index.html">new denial</a> (questioning climate solutions). Spreading doubt and scepticism has hamstrung our response to the enormous threat of climate change. And with sophisticated generative AI making it easy to generate plausible lies, it could become an <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/download/18.889aab4188bda3f44912a32/1687863825612/SRC_Climate%20misinformation%20brief_A4_.pdf">even bigger issue</a>.</p>
<p>The problem is, debunking misinformation <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01623-8">is often not sufficient</a> and you run the risk of giving false information <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-024-05651-z">credibility</a> when you have to debunk it. Indeed, a catchy lie can often stay in people’s heads while sober facts are forgotten. </p>
<p>But there’s a new option: the <a href="https://interventions.withgoogle.com/static/pdf/A_Practical_Guide_to_Prebunking_Misinformation.pdf">prebunking method</a>. Rather than waiting for misinformation to spread, you lay out clear, accurate information in advance – along with describing common manipulation techniques. Prebunking often has a better chance of success, according to <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/foolproof-why-we-fall-for-misinformation-and-how-to-build-immunity-sander-van-der-linden?variant=39973011980366">recent research</a> from co-author Sander van der Linden. </p>
<h2>How does prebunking work?</h2>
<p><a href="https://engineering.stanford.edu/magazine/article/how-fake-news-spreads-real-virus">Misinformation spreads</a> much like a virus. The way to protect ourselves and everyone else is similar: through vaccination. Psychological inoculation via prebunking acts like a vaccine and reduces the probability of infection. (We focus on misinformation here, which is shared accidentally, not <a href="https://frontline.thehindu.com/news/what-is-climate-misinformation-and-why-does-it-matter-disinformation-opponents-of-climate-science-greenwashing/article67771776.ece">disinformation</a>, which is where people deliberately spread information they know to be false). </p>
<p>If you’re forewarned about dodgy claims and questionable techniques, you’re more likely to be sceptical when you come across a YouTube video claiming electric cars are dirtier than those with internal combustion engines, or a Facebook page suggesting offshore wind turbines will kill whales. </p>
<p>Inoculation is not just a metaphor. By exposing us to a weakened form of the types of misinformation we might see in the future and giving us ways to identify it, we reduce the chance false information takes root in our psyches. </p>
<p>Scientists have tested these methods with some success. In <a href="https://publichealth.jmir.org/2022/6/e34615/">one study</a> exploring ways of countering anti-vaccination misinformation, researchers created simple videos to warn people manipulators might try to influence their thinking about vaccination with anecdotes or scary images rather than evidence. </p>
<p>They also gave people relevant facts about how low the actual injury rate from vaccines is (around two injuries per million). The result: compared to a control group, people with the psychological inoculation were more likely to recognise misleading rhetoric, less likely to share this type of content with others, and more likely to want to get vaccinated. </p>
<p>Similar studies have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/gch2.201600008">been conducted</a> on climate misinformation. Here, one group was forewarned that politically motivated actors will try to make it seem as if there was a lot of disagreement on the causes of climate change by appealing to fake experts and bogus petitions, while in fact <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-97-climate-consensus-is-over-now-its-well-above-99-and-the-evidence-is-even-stronger-than-that-170370">97% or more</a> of climate scientists have concluded humans are causing climate change. This inoculation proved effective. </p>
<p>The success of these early studies has spurred social media companies <a href="https://sustainability.fb.com/blog/2022/10/24/climate-science-literacy-initiative/">such as Meta</a> to adopt the technique. You can now find prebunking efforts on Meta sites such as Facebook and Instagram intended to protect people against common misinformation techniques, such as cherry-picking isolated data. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/youtube-how-a-team-of-scientists-worked-to-inoculate-a-million-users-against-misinformation-189007">YouTube: how a team of scientists worked to inoculate a million users against misinformation</a>
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<h2>Prebunking in practice</h2>
<p>A hotter world will experience increasing climate extremes and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020RG000726">more fire</a>. Even though many of the fires we have seen in recent years in Australia, Hawaii, Canada and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/10/chile-wildfires-vina-del-mar-achupallas">now Chile</a> are the worst on record, climate misinformation actors routinely try to minimise their severity. </p>
<p>As an example, let’s prebunk claims likely to circulate after the next big fire. </p>
<p><strong>1. The claim: “Climate change is a hoax – wildfires have always been a part of nature.”</strong></p>
<p>How to prebunk it: ahead of fire seasons, scientists can demonstrate claims like this rely on the “<a href="https://newslit.org/tips-tools/news-lit-tip-false-equivalence/">false equivalence</a>” logical fallacy. Misinformation falsely equates the recent rise in extreme weather events with natural events of the past. A devastating fire 100 years ago does not disprove <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/spreading-wildfire-rising-threat-extraordinary-landscape-fires">the trend</a> towards more fires and larger fires. </p>
<p><strong>2. Claim: “Bushfires are caused by arsonists.”</strong> </p>
<p>How to prebunk it: media professionals have an important responsibility here in fact-checking information before publishing or broadcasting. Media can give information on the most common causes of bushfires, from lightning (about 50%) to accidental fires to arson. <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/bushfires-firebugs-fuelling-crisis-as-national-arson-toll-hits-183/news-story/52536dc9ca9bb87b7c76d36ed1acf53f#:%7E:text=Victoria's%20Crime%20Statistics%20agency%20told,older%20men%20in%20their%2060s.">Media claims</a> arsonists were the main cause of the unprecedented 2019-2020 Black Summer fires in Australia were used by climate deniers worldwide, even though arson was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australias-fires-reveal-arson-not-a-major-cause/11855022">far from the main cause</a>.</p>
<p><strong>3. Claim: “The government is using bushfires as an excuse to bring in climate regulations.”</strong> </p>
<p>How to prebunk it: explain this recycled conspiracy theory is likely to circulate. Point out how it was used to claim COVID-19 lockdowns were a government ploy to soften people up for <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/climate-lockdowns-became-new-battleground-conspiracy-driven-protest-mo-rcna80370">climate lockdowns</a> (which never happened). Show how government agencies can and do communicate openly about why climate regulations <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/strategies">are necessary</a> and how they are intended to stave off the worst damage. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="firefighter putting out bushfire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575160/original/file-20240212-26-6ztcl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">False information on bushfires can spread like a bushfire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/australia-bushfires-fire-fueled-by-wind-1566620281">Toa55/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Misinformation isn’t going away</h2>
<p>Social media and the open internet have made it possible to broadcast information to millions of people, regardless of whether it’s true. It’s no wonder it’s a golden age for misinformation. Misinformation actors have found effective ways to cast scepticism on established science and then sell a false alternative. </p>
<p>We have to respond. Doing nothing means the lies win. And getting on the front foot with prebunking is one of the best tools we have. </p>
<p>As the world gets hotter, prebunking offers a way to anticipate new variants of lies and misinformation and counter them – before they take root. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-ways-to-avoid-becoming-a-misinformation-superspreader-157099">7 ways to avoid becoming a misinformation superspreader</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Turney receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a scientific adviser and holds shares in cleantech biographite company, CarbonScape. Chris is affiliated with the virtual Climate Recovery Institute, is a volunteer firefighter with the New South Wales Rural Fire Service (the NSW RFS), and is a Non-Executive Director on the boards of the NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA) and deeptech incubator, Cicada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sander van der Linden consults for or has received funding from Google, the EU Commission, the United Nations (UN), the World Health Organization (WHO), the Alfred Landecker Foundation, Omidyar Network India, the American Psychological Association, the Centers for Disease Control, UK Government, Facebook/Meta, and the Gates Foundation.</span></em></p>When we see false information circulating, we might move to debunk it. But prebunking lies and explaining manipulation techniques can work better.Christian Turney, Pro Vice-Chancellor of Research, University of Technology SydneySander van der Linden, Professor of Social Psychology in Society, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221002024-02-08T21:32:00Z2024-02-08T21:32:00ZSecrets of soil-enriching pulses could transform future of sustainable agriculture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574321/original/file-20240208-20-86knbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Root nodules of legumes such as soybeans help fix nitrogen into the soil. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/development-soybean-root-1248864754">Lidiane Miotto/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From lentils to chickpeas, and even the humble baked bean, pulses are perhaps best known as an alternative, plant-based source of protein. These plants are environmental heroes: they work together with soil microbes to “fix” nitrogen from the air, enriching the soil with nutrients to allow them to thrive.</p>
<p>As their nitrogen-fixing capacity is becoming better understood, scientists are hoping to find ways to increase productivity, and eventually apply some of these effective soil-enriching characteristics to other crops such as cereals. With the ability to fix nitrogen, crops would need less nitrogen fertiliser and soil health would simultaneously improve.</p>
<p>Pulses, the edible dry seeds of legume plants, are staple foods in the diets of both people and livestock around the world. Across Europe and the US, they are <a href="https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/grains-pulses-oilseeds/dried-beans/market-potential">commonly eaten</a> as tinned beans, chickpeas and lentils, while in sub-Saharan Africa, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7794592/">cowpea</a> is among the most important legumes. </p>
<p>High in protein, carbohydrates, dietary fibres, vitamins and minerals, pulses play a fundamental role in <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.878269/full">nutritious healthy diets</a>. Both the seeds and leaves are also used as <a href="https://www.un-ilibrary.org/content/books/9789210472579">feed for livestock</a>. For smallholder farmers in developing nations, nutritious pulses are a cost-effective substitute for animal protein and make up a large proportion of typical diets.</p>
<p>In Western Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi, people eat <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/121077">more than 30kg beans a year</a> on average, while many African countries recommend pulses as a meat alternative in <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9370574/">dietary guidelines</a>. Pulses can also be stored for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022474X14000496">extended periods</a> without affecting their nutritional content.</p>
<h2>The magic inside root nodules</h2>
<p>Some <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jplph.2022.153765">100 million years ago</a>, legumes developed the natural ability to house beneficial bacteria inside dedicated structures called root nodules. Here, bacteria convert gaseous nitrogen from the air and soil into a form that’s accessible to the plant as nutrients.</p>
<p>So, legumes need less nitrogen fertiliser than cereal and other vegetable crops. A high-performing legume can fix up to <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2021.767998/full">300kg of nitrogen per hectare</a>, which would otherwise cost farmers around $1 per kg in fertiliser to meet the nutrient needs of the plant. </p>
<p>At the <a href="https://www.ensa.ac.uk/">Enabling Nutrient Symbioses in Agriculture</a> project, we are trying to understand how exactly legumes do this. We are exploring how these nitrogen-fixing root nodules evolved in only legumes in the first place. With that knowledge, we hope to find ways to increase the efficiency of nitrogen fixation inside the root nodules and maximise the growth and yield of legume crops.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="microscopic image of pink cells - bacteria inside root nodules close up" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574454/original/file-20240208-18-zvrb8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574454/original/file-20240208-18-zvrb8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574454/original/file-20240208-18-zvrb8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574454/original/file-20240208-18-zvrb8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574454/original/file-20240208-18-zvrb8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574454/original/file-20240208-18-zvrb8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574454/original/file-20240208-18-zvrb8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under the microscope, the nitrogen-fixing bacteria inside root nodules of a bean plant can be seen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/root-bacteria-nodules-bean-under-microscope-1114612907">ChWeiss/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Beneficial bacteria</h2>
<p>My research group is investigating how legumes can engage with beneficial bacteria and avoid disease-causing microbes. While bacteria like the rhizobia in these root nodules help plants source nutrients, other soil microbes including bacteria and fungi could cause disease and prevent plants from converting as much nitrogen. So the plant must have a defence mechanism that keeps disease-causing microbes at bay. This may also prevent it from fully engaging with beneficial bacteria. </p>
<p>Our team of researchers has identified potential factors that limit nitrogen fixation in the nodules of <em>Medicago</em>, also known as barrel medic or barrel clover. This legume is frequently used for research and not grown for consumption. By studying these limiting factors, we hope to improve the efficiency of nitrogen fixation without affecting the crop’s in-built defence mechanisms to protect it from disease.</p>
<p>Having studied this mechanism in the research legume, researchers are now studying a few relevant crop legumes such as soybean and cowpea to understand how widespread and applicable the underlying biological mechanisms are, and whether they can be harnessed to improve other pulses in the future.</p>
<p>Despite being some of the oldest domesticated crops, many legumes are much less adapted to farming and so have significant potential for further improvement through breeding and genetic engineering, making them more suitable and sustainable for modern food systems.</p>
<p>The benefits of more efficient nitrogen fixing in legumes would include greater growth and biomass and, we hope, higher protein content in the seeds or pulses. This would increase the nutritional value per crop, meaning more high-quality nutrient-rich food could be produced per hectare.</p>
<p>Higher yields would create new opportunities for small-scale and subsistence farmers to grow and benefit from legumes – such as soybean – as cash crops to improve rural livelihoods. More productive legumes could be more effective as a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41130-018-0063-z">rotation crop</a> that improves soil health, which is especially important for farmers dealing with degraded soil, such as those found across sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>The more we know about this unique ability of legumes, the greater our chance of successfully developing other crops with a similar ability. Such a development, though some years away, could transform sustainable agriculture, especially in areas where access to synthetic fertiliser is already limited by cost and availability.</p>
<p>Extending nitrogen fixing to other crops has long been an ambition of crop scientists around the world and as the study of plant biology advances, the pulse of progress is quickening.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Schornack receives funding from Bill and Melinda Gates Agricultural Innovations. He is also listed as an inventor on a patent filed by the University of Cambridge on a gene that seems to limit nitrogen fixation.</span></em></p>New technology could unlock the soil-enriching nitrogen-fixing ability of legumes…and one day apply this to other crops too.Sebastian Schornack, Senior research group leader in the Enabling Nutrient Symbioses in Agriculture (ENSA) project, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215792024-01-26T17:57:55Z2024-01-26T17:57:55ZDisinformation is often blamed for swaying elections – the research says something else<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571138/original/file-20240124-29-k5hu7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C175%2C5575%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/color-image-some-people-voting-polling-435657658">Alexandru Nika/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many countries <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024">face general elections</a> this year. Political campaigning will include misleading and even false information. Just days ago, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/fake-biden-robocall-message-in-new-hampshire-alarms-election-experts?leadSource=uverify%20wall">it was reported</a> that a robocall impersonating US president Joe Biden had told recipients not to vote in the presidential primary. </p>
<p>But can disinformation significantly influence voting? </p>
<p>There are two typical styles of election campaigning. One is positive, presenting favourable attributes of politicians and their policies, and the other is negative – disparaging the opposition. The latter <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41253-019-00084-8;">can backfire</a>, though, or lead to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00618.x?casa_token=kG3-EyUhaHYAAAAA:UydVoChML-dFiFC370Su8gRQmPSAMV1E0cqg0cZ2owdl-NSw4uvQvHsjXIpdxpebgYZXAYb5aDWX">voters disengaging</a> with the entire democratic process. </p>
<p>Voters are already <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.071905.101448?casa_token=a0oggffzdCkAAAAA:61ee1-KZtnN5OvUoordIlQChJwegerDlKfg6q5bCJZXUy-ND70U_4ZcapONNd1mibsDPVD8jjSvHYw">fairly savvy</a> – they know that campaigning tactics often include distortions and untruths. Both types of tactics, positive and negative, <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/innovation/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Factsheet-4.pdf">can feature misinformation</a>, which loosely refers to inaccurate, false and misleading information. Sometimes this even counts as disinformation, because the details are deliberately designed to be misleading. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, recent research shows that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-why-it-may-not-necessarily-lead-to-bad-behaviour-199123">lack of clarity in defining</a> misinformation and disinformation is a problem. There is no consensus. Scientifically and practically, this is bad. It’s hard to chart the scale of a problem if your starting point includes <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/17456916221141344">vague or confused</a> concepts. This is a problem for the general public, too, given it makes it harder to decipher and trust research on the topic.</p>
<p>For example, depending on how inclusive the definition is, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=hB5sEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA173&dq=public+perceptions+negative+election+campaigning+%22propaganda%22&ots=i47RTsBtju&sig=JYS30Bjr6Hu17xdxRn50HXlsAPY">propaganda</a>, <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rcybxx/v5y2020i2p199-217.html">deep fakes</a>, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.2.211">fake news</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35039654/">conspiracy theories</a> are all examples of disinformation. But <a href="https://edisciplinas.usp.br/pluginfile.php/4948550/mod_resource/content/1/Fake%20News%20Digital%20Journalism%20-%20Tandoc.pdf">news parody or political satire</a> can be too. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, researchers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2020.03.014">often fail to provide clear definitions</a>, and do not carefully compare different types of disinformation, adding uncertainty to evidence examining its effect on voting behaviour. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, let’s investigate the research on disinformation so far, which is generally viewed as more serious than misinformation, to see <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/explaining-beliefs-in-electoral-misinformation-in-the-2022-brazilian-election-the-role-of-ideology-political-trust-social-media-and-messaging-apps/">how much influence it can really have</a> on the way we vote. </p>
<h2>Unconvincing findings</h2>
<p>Consider <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733322001494">a study published in 2023</a>, investigating the role of fake news in the Italian general elections in 2013 and 2018. It used debunking websites to help create a fake news score for articles published in the run-up to the election.</p>
<p>Then the researchers analysed populist parties’ pre-election Facebook posts containing such news content. This also generated an engagement score based on the number of likes and shares of the posts. </p>
<p>Finally, scores were combined with actual electoral votes for populist parties to gauge the possible influence of fake news on such votes. The researchers estimated that fake news added a small but statistically significant electoral gain for populist parties. But the researchers suggested that fake news could not be the sole cause of the overall increase in vote share for populist parties – it only seemed to add a small amount to the overall increase in vote share.</p>
<p>Similar studies showing <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aau2706">low effects</a> of fake news on persuading voters has led some researchers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0833-x">to argue</a> that the panic about fake news is overblown. </p>
<p>Other recent studies have looked at the potential influence of disinformation by asking people how they intended to vote and whether they believed specific pieces of disinformation. This was examined in national or presidential elections in <a href="https://www.martenscentre.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/15.pdf">the Czech Republic in 2021</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23743670.2020.1719858?casa_token=G5kslUWsQRkAAAAA:ZW_ghmhO0phxYhgElEnuToqcAK_f_3o2BLrzew-RW0tlNZBX9_UuXgricYyuzZ-qgvZVQUgfoycKXw">Kenya in 2017</a>, <a href="https://www.ajpor.org/article/12982-analysis-of-fake-news-in-the-2017-korean-presidential-election">South Korea in 2017</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23743670.2020.1719858">Indonesia in 2019, Malaysia in 2018</a>, <a href="https://www.martenscentre.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/15.pdf">Philippines in 2022</a> and <a href="https://www.ajpor.org/article/12985-does-fake-news-matter-to-election-outcomes-the-case-study-of-taiwan-s-2018-local-elections">Taiwan in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>The general finding among all these studies was that it is hard to establish a reliable causal influence of fake news on voting. One reason was that who people say they vote for and how they actually vote can be vastly different. </p>
<p>In fact, research has gone into understanding the reasons for dramatic failures of traditional pollsters to predict elections and referendums <a href="https://journalofbigdata.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40537-021-00525-8">in Argentina in 2019</a>, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/abs/quebec-2018-a-failure-of-the-polls/97380BA7567B11B95E88FAA2149BDC51">Quebec in 2018</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319982710_Collective_failure_Lessons_from_combining_forecasts_for_the_UK's_referendum_on_EU_membership">UK in 2016</a> and <a href="https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/sociologyfacpub/543/">US in 2016</a>. People didn’t, for many reasons, reveal their actual voting intentions to pollsters and researchers. </p>
<h2>Who is susceptible?</h2>
<p>What about specific groups of voters, though? Might there be some that are more influenced by disinformation than others? Political affiliation doesn’t seem to matter. People tend <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2020.03.014">to rate fake news as accurate</a> when it’s in line with their own political beliefs. For instance, in the 2016 US presidential elections, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump supporters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12233">were equally likely</a> to rate fake news about their opposition as accurate. </p>
<p>How about undecided voters? Some studies show that undecided voters are more likely than decided voters to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2021.1883706">consider fake news headlines as credible</a>. But the opposite has also been shown – that they are <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.2.211">less susceptible to political fake news</a>. </p>
<p>Still, to maximise the influence of disinformation in an election, undecided voters would be the obvious target, especially in close-run elections. But accurately profiling undecided voters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12414">is difficult</a> – especially since people are cautious in revealing their voting intentions and the reasons behind them.</p>
<p>And if politicians or campaign staff use <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1369148119842038">disinformation in aggressive negative campaigning</a> to sway undecided voters, they can end up increasing disengagement in the election process – making some people even more undecided.</p>
<p>Ultimately, most research suggests that fake news <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/17456916221141344">is more likely to enhance existing beliefs</a> and views rather than <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-00980-6">radically change voting intentions</a> of the undecided. </p>
<p>Another issue that often gets ignored is a phenomenon known in psychology as <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2001-16230-004">the third-person effect</a> – that we think that others are more persuadable, and even gullible, than ourselves. </p>
<p>So when it comes to who is susceptible to disinformation, it is likely that those studying it, as well as those participating in the studies, <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-presumed-influence-of-election-misinformation-on-others-reduces-our-own-satisfaction-with-democracy/">assume they are immune</a>, but that anyone else, such as supporters of the opposing political party, are not – making the evidence harder to interpret. </p>
<p>It would be naive to say that disinformation, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Politics_and_Propaganda.html?id=FTrgh74moswC">such as political propaganda</a>, doesn’t have any influence on voting. But we should be careful not to assign disinformation as the sole explanation for election results that go against predictions.</p>
<p>If we assign disinformation such a high level of influence, we ultimately deny people’s agency in making free voting choices. And studies show that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375301055_Folk_beliefs_about_where_manipulation_outside_of_awareness_occurs_and_how_much_awareness_and_free_choice_is_still_maintained">we are aware</a> that manipulative methods are used on us. Still, we all judge that we can maintain <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2023-13856-001">an ability to make our own choice</a> when voting.</p>
<p>It’s important to take this seriously. Our belief in free will is ultimately a reason so many of us back democracy in the first place. Denying it can arguably be more damaging than a few fake news posts lurking on social media.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magda Osman receives funding from Research England, ESRC, Wellcome Trust, and Turing Institute. </span></em></p>Most studies suggests that fake news is more likely to enhance existing beliefs and views rather than radically change voting intentions of those who are undecided.Magda Osman, Principal Research Associate in Basic and Applied Decision Making, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216162024-01-23T13:29:43Z2024-01-23T13:29:43ZEducation has a huge role to play in peace and development: 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570556/original/file-20240122-20-g5icoh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children's education is frequently disrupted in conflict-fraught areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Beloumou Olomo/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nelson Mandela was a famous advocate for the value of education. In 1990, the man who would become South Africa’s first democratically president four years later <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/06/24/us/the-mandela-visit-education-is-mighty-force-boston-teen-agers-are-told.html">told a high school in Boston</a>: “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.”</p>
<p>The United Nations agrees. In 2018 its General Assembly adopted a resolution that proclaimed 24 January as the <a href="https://www.unesco.org/en/days/education">International Day of Education</a>. It’s an annual opportunity to shine a spotlight on the role that education can and should play in promoting peace and development. This year the theme is “learning for lasting peace” – a critical focus in a world that, the UN points out, is “seeing a surge of violent conflicts paralleled by an alarming rise of discrimination, racism, xenophobia, and hate speech”.</p>
<p>To mark the occasion, we’re sharing some of the many articles our authors have contributed since we launched in 2015 that examine the intersection of education and conflict – and how to wield this powerful “weapon” for positive change.</p>
<h2>Education under attack</h2>
<p>Education systems in a number of African countries <a href="https://protectingeducation.org/wp-content/uploads/GCPEA_NSAG_ScopingPaper.pdf">have been identified</a> by international advocacy groups as “very heavily affected” by conflict. These include Sudan, Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Central Sahel, which includes Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, is another region of high concern. In 2020 alone (and before COVID lockdowns), 4,000 schools in the Central Sahel <a href="https://protectingeducation.org/wp-content/uploads/Central-Sahel-Paper-English.pdf">closed because of insecurity</a>. </p>
<p>Craig Bailie <a href="https://theconversation.com/education-is-both-the-victim-and-the-best-weapon-in-central-sahel-conflict-148472">explains</a> what drives armed groups to attack schools in the Central Sahel, leaving hundreds of thousands of students high and dry.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/education-is-both-the-victim-and-the-best-weapon-in-central-sahel-conflict-148472">Education is both the victim and the best weapon in Central Sahel conflict</a>
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<h2>Long-term effects</h2>
<p>Education systems, of course, do not exist in a vacuum. Where conflict meets long-term governance failures, poor resourcing and other societal issues, schooling comes under even more pressure. Ethiopia, for instance, has not only had to reckon with <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-tigray-war-parties-agree-pause-expert-insights-into-two-years-of-devastating-conflict-193636">internal conflict since 2020</a>; it’s also grappling with deeply rooted systemic crises.</p>
<p>Tebeje Molla and Dawit Tibebu Tiruneh <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-education-system-is-in-crisis-nows-the-time-to-fix-it-217817">unpack</a> how these crises are colliding to leave Ethiopian children and teenagers floundering.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-education-system-is-in-crisis-nows-the-time-to-fix-it-217817">Ethiopia’s education system is in crisis – now’s the time to fix it</a>
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<h2>Rebuilding is possible</h2>
<p>That’s not to say education systems can’t bounce back after conflict. During Somalia’s civil war in the late 1980s more than 90% of schools were destroyed. In the wake of the war the north of the country declared itself as the Republic of Somaliland. </p>
<p>Tobias Gandrup and Kristof Titeca <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-schools-are-kept-afloat-in-somaliland-121570">examine how</a>, together, the state, NGOs and the diaspora have succeeded in rebuilding the education system.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-schools-are-kept-afloat-in-somaliland-121570">How schools are kept afloat in Somaliland</a>
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<h2>Solutions exist</h2>
<p>Researchers also have a role to play in strengthening education systems. All over the continent, projects that aim to keep children learning even amid devastating conflicts are being developed, rolled out and tested.</p>
<p>One example comes from north-eastern Nigeria, which has been beset by Boko Haram attacks. Margee Ensign and Jacob Udo-Udo Jacob <a href="https://theconversation.com/disasters-interrupt-schooling-regularly-in-parts-of-africa-heres-a-solution-156345">used</a> a combination of radio and tablet computers to improve the literacy and numeracy skills of 22,000 children forced out of school.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disasters-interrupt-schooling-regularly-in-parts-of-africa-heres-a-solution-156345">Disasters interrupt schooling regularly in parts of Africa: here's a solution</a>
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<h2>In the classroom</h2>
<p>Conflicts seem inevitable in a world racked by many “wicked problems” like climate change, inequality and poverty. But what’s taught in Africa’s classrooms could play a role in solving them. The ability to think critically, and to engage with facts rather than fiction, is key. </p>
<p>To this end, Ayodeji Olukoju <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-studying-history-at-school-can-do-for-nigerians-165339">explains</a> why it was so important that Nigeria reintroduced history as a school subject in 2019, a decade after scrapping it from the curriculum. Understanding history, he argues, helps to explode myths and stereotypes, leading to a more cohesive society.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-studying-history-at-school-can-do-for-nigerians-165339">What studying history at school can do for Nigerians</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Education can spur peace and development. Here are five essential reads on the topic.Natasha Joseph, Commissioning EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209592024-01-16T09:20:57Z2024-01-16T09:20:57ZWhy the Post Office was able to bring private prosecutions in the Horizon IT scandal<p>The UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/10/rishi-sunak-announces-plan-to-pass-law-quashing-horizon-post-office-scandal-convictions">has announced</a> that is government will introduce blanket legislation to clear sub-postmasters convicted of wrongdoing as a result of the Post Office Horizon scandal . </p>
<p>Between 1999 and 2015 – and potentially <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/07/post-office-suspected-of-more-wrongful-prosecutions-of-operators-over-horizon#:%7E:text=The%20Post%20Office%20is%20suspected,the%20Guardian%20has%20been%20told.">much earlier</a> – <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-post-office-scandal-is-possibly-the-largest-miscarriage-of-justice-in-uk-history-and-its-not-over-yet-211217">more than 700 sub-postmasters</a> were convicted of fraud, theft or false accounting. </p>
<p>Legal experts have long highlighted the Post Office’s litigious attitude and its cases relying, often exclusively, on evidence from the faulty IT system itself. Many victims <a href="https://evidencebasedjustice.exeter.ac.uk/false-guilty-pleas-and-the-post-office-scandal/">pleaded</a> guilty simply on advice that this was their best chance of avoiding prison. </p>
<p>That the Post Office was able to bring so many prosecutions – and to conduct them so appallingly – is because the company was not supervised. As a private company, and not a statutory body, it isn’t subject to government oversight. Just as any other public company or private citizen might, the Post Office brought private prosecutions. </p>
<p>As co-directors of the Criminal Law Reform Now Network, we have been working on a review of private prosecutions since 2019. Some do in fact serve the public interest, especially in areas where the police and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) have effectively retreated under budget cuts. But when large companies and organisations such as the Post Office prosecute, they are not subject to accreditation and inspection or any other oversight.</p>
<h2>How private prosecutions are brought</h2>
<p>To bring a private prosecution, a person or company asks a magistrate to issue a summons against the accused person. If the applicant can show there is evidence, the magistrate generally will do so. </p>
<p>The magistrate does not assess that evidence, however, nor the likelihood of conviction. They do not decide whether there is any public interest in bringing the case. They do not ask why the police and CPS have not been involved. And they do not usually invite representations from the accused person. </p>
<p>When the accused person answers the summons, an ordinary criminal case ensues – not a civil case. The magistrate decides whether the charges are serious enough to be tried in the Crown Court. If convicted, the defendant risks prison. </p>
<p>Whoever brings the prosecution has the same statutory duties imposed on anyone who prosecutes, including disclosing evidence in their possession which might assist the case for the accused. This is one duty which the Post Office manifestly declined to perform, <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/news/sir-wyn-gives-determination-post-office-disclosure-failings">as has been highlighted </a> by statutory inquiry into the Post Office Horizon scandal.</p>
<h2>Safeguards for private prosecutions</h2>
<p>There has long been the possibility for the director of public prosecutions (DPP) – who, since 1986, is the head of the CPS – to take over a private prosecution or discontinue it. Since 2009, the policy has been to discontinue private prosecutions which do not meet the same core standards (that there be a realistic prospect of prosecution or that a prosecution is in the public interest) with which the CPS must comply.</p>
<p>However, it would normally be up to the accused person themselves to ask that the DDP or CPS should take it over, and the decision would still be made on the basis of the files in the possession of the private prosecutor. </p>
<p>We know of no case where any sub-postmaster actually asked the DPP to intervene. And even if they had, there is no particular reason to suppose that they would have intervened. Any case presented by the Post Office (which would likely have said nothing of its problems with the Horizon software) would have looked perfectly reasonable. </p>
<p>Crucially, because only one sub-postmaster would have approached the DPP at any given time, the CPS would have had no way of knowing the industrial scale on which sub-postmasters were being prosecuted across the country, almost all on the basis of contested evidence arising from the Horizon software (which, one hopes, would then have raised alarm bells). </p>
<p>As with the magistrates’ summons, the safeguard may be relatively effective in the case of an amateur prosecutor who doesn’t know what they are doing. But it is likely ineffective when, unknown to others, a large and reputable company is not acting properly but its case is well represented. </p>
<h2>Private prosecutions should be reformed, not abolished</h2>
<p>It is important not to look at private prosecutions entirely through the prism of the Post Office scandal. There are many crimes, including complex frauds and those involving infringement of copyright, where the police lack the resources or expertise to <a href="https://barristermagazine.com/private-prosecutions-the-quiet-battle-against-illegal-streaming/">investigate effectively</a>. Much the same can be said of the CPS. </p>
<p>Where wealthy and determined victims have the means to investigate and prosecute effectively, they may, in fact, be doing a public service. <a href="https://www.emmlegal.com/news/emm-secures-confiscation-order/">Some succesful private prosecutions</a> have led to confiscation orders being made against convicted defendants that have resulted in millions of pounds being handed over to the Treasury. </p>
<p>In recent years, many legal firms specialising in private prosecutions have formed their own Private Prosecutors’ Association. This has a <a href="https://private-prosecutions.com/code-for-private-prosecutors/">voluntary code of conduct</a>. </p>
<p>The justice select committee has recommended that anybody who is the subject of a private prosecution should at least be told this in clear terms and informed of their right to ask the DPP to consider taking over the prosecution. A broader problem is that the CPS is not at all equipped to review anywhere near the bulk of cases which could be referred to it.</p>
<p>The committee has also proposed that the government should consider a system for inspections. After all, both the CPS and the Serious Fraud Office are subject to statutory inspection. </p>
<p>This relates to a fundamental aspect of the scandal: no one had any power to compulsorily inspect the Post Office’s practices. For too long, those who were rightly suspicious of the Post Office – including several MPs – could not call upon anyone with power in the criminal justice system to take action. This vacuum should surely now be addressed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Private prosecutions can serve the public interest but the system needs better oversight and inspection.John Child, Professor of Criminal Law, University of BirminghamJonathan Rogers, Associate Professor in Criminal Law, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181972024-01-15T17:52:26Z2024-01-15T17:52:26ZSix ways inequality holds back climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568897/original/file-20240111-21-cneto0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5615%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rear-view-rich-woman-walking-towards-173767196">Tyler Olson/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Are improvements to green technologies, like better batteries and more efficient solar panels, enough on their own to tackle climate change? Unfortunately not. Our behaviour and lifestyles must change too.</p>
<p>Rolling out the solutions to climate change (electric vehicles, solar power, heat pumps) will require confronting the enormous gulf in wealth and resources separating the richest and poorest people – both within countries and between them.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01900-4">In our recent article</a> for Nature Climate Change, we explain why inequality remains one of the biggest barriers to the net zero transition.</p>
<h2>1. The very rich are very big polluters</h2>
<p>Oxfam recently shone a spotlight on the gap in emissions between the richest and poorest people globally. According to <a href="https://www.oxfam.org.uk/media/press-releases/richest-1-emit-as-much-planet-heating-pollution-as-two-thirds-of-humanity-oxfam/">their latest analysis</a>, the richest 1% emit as much CO₂ as the poorest 66% combined.</p>
<p>To limit warming to 1.5°C, each person has a yearly carbon budget of about <a href="https://wir2022.wid.world/chapter-6/">1 tonne</a>. However, the top 1% of emitters currently burn through more than one hundred times the sustainable amount, emitting on average a staggering <a href="https://wir2022.wid.world/chapter-6/">110 tonnes of carbon</a> a year each. </p>
<p>If we want to transition to net zero fairly and in time to avoid the worst effects of the climate crisis, we need to slash emissions from the biggest sources.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1746862406322549055"}"></div></p>
<h2>2. Political solutions are limited</h2>
<p>The political power of the rich prevents measures that could otherwise distribute emissions and energy use more fairly. This is because wealthy people can shape government policy to suit their interests. </p>
<p>Billionaires who have made their fortunes through investments in the fossil fuel industry have donated to groups that campaign against <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/fighting-climate-chaos/climate-deniers/koch-industries/">policy solutions to climate change</a>, obstructing and delaying efforts to decarbonise.</p>
<p>With the ability to successfully lobby against climate policies, the super-wealthy have no compulsion to curb their highly polluting behaviour. For example, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/22/ban-private-jets-to-address-climate-crisis-says-thomas-piketty">private jet travel remains legal</a> despite it being the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-people-still-flying-to-climate-conferences-by-private-jet-218459">most polluting</a> transport mode of all and useful to just a tiny minority.</p>
<h2>3. Carbon taxes could be more effective</h2>
<p>No price attached to carbon emissions, in any country, accounts for their full damage to the Earth and to human health. This means that it is often cheaper for industries to pollute than switch to clean alternatives. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two smokestacks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568915/original/file-20240111-17-t01y0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568915/original/file-20240111-17-t01y0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568915/original/file-20240111-17-t01y0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568915/original/file-20240111-17-t01y0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568915/original/file-20240111-17-t01y0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568915/original/file-20240111-17-t01y0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568915/original/file-20240111-17-t01y0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emitting carbon is still relatively cheap.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-on-two-smoke-flues-power-2093276599">Dmitry Danilenko/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Carbon taxes are supposed to increase the price of emitting greenhouse gases and pollution so that the greenest option is also the cheapest one. For example, taxing diesel and petrol vehicles (and investing the revenue in public transport) could make it cheaper for families to travel by train and bus instead of by car. If such taxes were widely introduced, research indicates they could be effective at <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joes.12531">reducing emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, carbon taxes tend to disproportionately affect poorer people and countries by increasing the prices of goods and services that remain highly polluting, while wealthier people can afford to keep emitting. More equal societies, without extreme poverty or wealth, could introduce carbon taxes that enable everyone to decarbonise. </p>
<h2>4. Green options aren’t in reach for all</h2>
<p>While carbon emissions are not priced at their true cost, some lifestyle changes (such as replacing a gas boiler with <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-heat-pumps-work-in-the-uks-climate-an-expert-answers-your-low-carbon-heating-questions-211150">a heat pump</a>) require a hefty upfront investment. If you’re one of the many people on a low income then you may not be able to afford them.</p>
<p>In the UK, subsidies for energy-efficiency improvements like home insulation tend to be restricted to homeowners, leaving renters with little control over <a href="https://www.generationrent.org/2023/08/03/fuel-poor-private-renters-miss-out-on-home-insulation-grants/">the building they live in</a> – including its emissions. Similarly, tax breaks or grants to buy electric bikes are largely restricted to those in stable jobs which pay <a href="https://help.cyclescheme.co.uk/article/263-i-earn-national-minimum-or-living-wage-how-can-i-participate">above the minimum wage</a>.</p>
<p>Ensuring that subsidy schemes specifically support those on lower incomes could allow everyone to make the changes necessary for reaching net zero.</p>
<h2>5. People need free time to go green</h2>
<p>Beyond wealth and income, there are also inequalities in available time to consider.</p>
<p>Some low-carbon options take longer or are less convenient than the polluting alternatives, such as travelling long distances by train instead of flying. Learning new skills, like how to cook plant-based recipes to cut down on your meat consumption, can take time which wealthy people can more readily afford by working part-time, retiring early or paying others to take care of cleaning and childcare. </p>
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<img alt="A crowded platform for Eurostar at St. Pancras station in London, UK." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568912/original/file-20240111-28-zxcrw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568912/original/file-20240111-28-zxcrw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568912/original/file-20240111-28-zxcrw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568912/original/file-20240111-28-zxcrw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568912/original/file-20240111-28-zxcrw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568912/original/file-20240111-28-zxcrw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568912/original/file-20240111-28-zxcrw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More free time would help more people travel by train over long distances.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-august-16-2019-people-1976601530">Alena Veasey/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>More equality in free time, such as a <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/story/could-a-4-day-working-week-help-reduce-emissions-and-our-carbon-footprint/">four-day working week</a>, can help people make lifestyle changes that benefit the planet.</p>
<h2>6. Public services cannot meet their potential</h2>
<p>Providing high-quality public services to all makes low-carbon choices easier for everyone. Universally available amenities also meet basic standards of human wellbeing while <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000662">using less energy overall</a>.</p>
<p>In the UK, London boasts the cheapest bus fares and the most comprehensive public transport network. Although rent and property prices can be lower in rural areas than in cities, the deregulation and subsequent privatisation of the UK bus network in the 1980s – as well as austerity since 2010 – has led to <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1024529420964933">more unequal access</a> to public transport. </p>
<p>Fare increases and axed bus routes have put low-carbon public transport <a href="https://chrgj.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Report-Public-Transport-Private-Profit.pdf">out of reach</a> for many and made it harder to get around without a car.</p>
<p>The planet’s dwindling resources are being squandered by a rich minority. Reining in their emissions and redistributing their power and influence would help everyone live more sustainably so that the planet can support a decent life for all.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cutting wealth inequality could curb the super-rich’s disproportionate share of emissions.Emma Garnett, Researcher in the Health Behaviours Team, University of OxfordCharlotte A. Kukowski, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Climate Change Mitigation, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206162024-01-11T12:50:05Z2024-01-11T12:50:05ZInequality is dividing England. Is more devolution the answer?<p>Twenty-five years ago, when new institutions of national government were created in <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/about/history-of-the-scottish-parliament/the-scottish-parliament-reestablished#topOfNav">Scotland</a> and <a href="https://senedd.wales/how-we-work/history-of-devolution/">Wales</a>, they reflected the widely held view that the Welsh and Scots should have more control over their economies, aspects of welfare provision and key public services. Yet at that time, hardly anyone thought devolution might be applied to England – despite it being the largest, wealthiest and most populated part of the UK.</p>
<p>Today, things look rather different. The notion of English devolution has morphed from being of interest only to constitutional experts to being a preoccupation of Britain’s politicians as we approach the next general election – many of whom have lost confidence in the capacity of central government to tackle the country’s most deeply-rooted problems.</p>
<p>A historic <a href="https://www.sunderland.gov.uk/article/29488/4-2bn-North-East-devolution-deal-gets-local-approval">£4.2bn devolution deal</a>, which will bring together seven councils under an elected <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_North_East_mayoral_election">mayor of the North East</a> in May 2024, is the latest attempt to address some of the deep geographical inequalities that disfigure and disenfranchise large areas of England.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, much of English local government is experiencing immense financial pressures, with large councils such as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-67053587">Birmingham</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/nov/29/nottingham-city-council-wasnt-reckless-it-was-hollowed-out-by-austerity">Nottingham</a> declaring themselves at risk of bankruptcy while others <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/economic-growth/regional-development/2023/07/council-rescue-package-finance-bankruptcy">teeter on the edge of a financial cliff</a>. In many parts of England, it is <a href="https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/devolving-english-government/">increasingly unclear</a> who local residents should hold accountable for public service provision – in part due to the amount of outsourcing to the private sector that has become routine.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
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<p>“Take Back Control” was the slogan of the Vote Leave campaign leading up to the Brexit referendum of September 2016. It may not be a coincidence that the country which played the key arithmetical role in determining its outcome – England – was the only one where devolution had not been introduced, and where many non-metropolitan residents felt their views and interests counted for little in the citadels of democratic government. </p>
<p>Since then, more years of political turbulence, economic shocks intensified by the COVID pandemic, and the government’s <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/17/levelling-up-housing-and-communities-committee/news/195434/levelling-up-policy-will-fail-without-longterm-substantive-funding-for-councils-say-mps/">failure to “level up”</a> as pledged, have combined to erode the allegiance and goodwill of many of its citizens. What this means for the future of a UK union-state model that has rested, to a considerable degree, upon English assent is likely to become one of the key political – and constitutional – issues of our time.</p>
<h2>What is English devolution for?</h2>
<p>In fact, the idea of establishing a new layer of government between Whitehall and England’s complicated network of local councils has engaged the attention of successive governments since the 1960s. But questions about the form, scope and functions of this “middle” layer gradually turned into a party-political football, with governments of different colours inclined to reverse the arrangements put in place by their predecessor. And the wider democratic ambition hinted at by the term “devolution” was largely absent from these reforms.</p>
<p>Whereas in Scotland and Wales, devolution was long ago couched in terms of democratic advance and national self-determination, in England it was largely regarded as a mere extension of central government’s approach to regional policy-making – and even the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5fe17864-ae02-11e4-919e-00144feab7de">advent of elected “metro mayors”</a> did little to change this view. But now, politicians from both main political parties have come to believe in a new, sub-national model that can be badged as England’s own version of devolution.</p>
<p>A spate of deals involving the voluntary combining of different councils were announced in 2022, including for <a href="https://www.northyorks.gov.uk/your-council/devolution">North Yorkshire</a>, the East Midlands and the North East, and again in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s 2023 <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/autumn-statement-2023-speech">autumn statement</a> for Lancashire, Greater Lincolnshire and <a href="https://www.prolificnorth.co.uk/news/autumn-statement-devolution-for-hull-tax-cuts-for-unemployed-500m-for-innovation-centres-and-ai-but-weaker-growth-predicted/#:%7E:text=and%20Jeremy%20Hunt-,Autumn%20statement%3A%20Devolution%20for%20Hull%2C%20NI%20cuts%20for%20all%2C,AI%2C%20but%20weaker%20growth%20predicted&text=Hull%20City%20Council%20and%20East,Chancellor%20Jeremy%20Hunt's%20autumn%20statement.">East Yorkshire</a>. And a report by Labour’s <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf">Commission on the UK’s Future</a>, chaired by former prime minister Gordon Brown, signalled that the party should <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/brown-commission-constitutional-reform">extend the current government’s programme</a> of English devolution.</p>
<p>This idea lay at the heart of Boris Johnson’s ambitious programme while he was prime minister for addressing the deep disparities in productivity and social outcomes that exist in England, to which he gave the grand but elusive title “levelling up”. This plan – set out in a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62e7a429d3bf7f75af0923f3/Executive_Summary.pdf">lengthy white paper</a> in February 2022 – seems, for the most part, to have fallen by the wayside now that Johnson has left the political stage. But it still marked an important staging post in the journey of the once-niche idea of English devolution. Both main political parties have signed up to this principle and have indicated they will create more devolved authorities should they win the next general election.</p>
<p>Advocates sometimes point to an extensive – though hotly contested – body of research on the positive consequences for local economies of taking policy decisions at levels closer to the people they affect. One influential theoretical support for this idea highlights what economists call the “<a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Opportunities-for-tacit-knowledge-transfer-within-a-Moloney/f1a8daa5aea06468c03a1a7142c2122661a1a281">tacit knowledge</a>” about a place, which is often vital to understanding the particular policies and initiatives that are likely to yield most benefit there.</p>
<p>What can be said with more confidence is that a lot hinges on the quality of the institutions that are created, and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00323217221136666">how well funded they are</a>.</p>
<p>Others argue that a more decentralised system of political authority is more likely to win the allegiance of, and secure more engagement from, people throughout England – in a context where <a href="https://www.ippr.org/blog/freefall-how-a-year-of-chaos-has-undermined-trust-in-politics">trust in the UK’s political class has plummeted</a>, where <a href="https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/devolving-english-government/">MPs are less popular</a> than local councillors, and where there is widespread disenchantment with the perceived bias of central government towards London and the south-east. </p>
<p>However, to what extent does the record of England’s existing “<a href="https://www.centreforcities.org/publication/everything-need-know-metro-mayors/#whois">metro mayors</a>” support this case?</p>
<h2>‘King of the north’</h2>
<p>When the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, <a href="https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1318576386949468164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1318582661317824515%7Ctwgr%5Ed6e9e68efd3b3c853ef8fce56165ad44c52f62c3%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mirror.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fking-north-andy-burnham-labelled-22878379">staged an impromptu press conference</a> in the street outside Manchester town hall to protest against the local lockdown that the UK government wanted to introduce in the north-west of England in October 2020, his stance received considerable local support – to the extent that he briefly <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/king-north-andy-burnham-labelled-22878379">acquired the nickname</a> “king of the north”. Since his election as mayor in May 2017, Burnham has led a number of high-profile initiatives on issues such as <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/mayor-hails-pioneering-housing-scheme-that-transformed-homelessness-response-in-greater-manchester-as-number-of-people-on-streets-falls-further/">homelessness</a>, and overseen the integration of health and local social care services.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Andy Burnham’s impromptu press conference outside Manchester town hall.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Similarly, it is unlikely that a backbench MP would have been able to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/04/tory-mayor-andy-street-considering-quitting-over-rishi-sunak-hs2-u-turn">wrest concessions</a> from a prime minister as did the Conservative mayor of the West Midlands, Andy Street, after he made public his <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/09/27/hs2-route-scaled-back-jeopardise-investment-andy-street/">opposition to Rishi Sunak’s decision to cancel the HS2 rail project</a> in September 2023.</p>
<p>While the responsibilities held by England’s metro mayors are, by international standards, pretty limited, they are at times able to deploy what political scientists term the “soft power” that comes from being the acknowledged leader of, and voice for, a locality. They also tend to be more independent of their own party machines than MPs are, going out of their way, when it suits them, to dissent from their parties’ London-based leaderships.</p>
<p>But it would be unwise to get too starry-eyed about a system that relies so heavily on soft power rather than the allocation of formal responsibilities. The absence of an elected legislature tasked with scrutinising and legitimating the work of these leaders – who are typically, and often not very effectively, held to account by local council leaders – is a significant further constraint on their ability to act as democratically legitimate changemakers.</p>
<p>This is very different to the model established in London, which had its <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/mayor-london-and-london-assembly">own government restored</a> by the first government of Tony Blair in 1999 following a city-wide referendum. The Greater London Authority is made up of elected representatives whose job it is to scrutinise the elected mayor, currently Sadiq Khan, and his administration. </p>
<p>In contrast, metro mayors elsewhere in England – tasked with delivering policies and overseeing funding allocations in areas of priority set by central government – are typically frustrated by the limits imposed on their own agency. Nor do they have the fiscal tools, both in terms of raising revenue and borrowing against financial assets, that are typical of many city and regional governments outside the UK.</p>
<p>The idea of having mini-parliaments across England’s regions, on a par with the legislatures established in Scotland and Wales, was dealt a fatal blow in 2004. During the course of the Blair governments, his long-time deputy prime minister, John Prescott, had pressed for the gradual conversion of the English regional development agencies Labour had created into a form of elected regional administration. But this died a very public death when <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2004/nov/05/regionalgovernment.politics">voters in the north-east overwhelmingly rejected the idea</a> – despite having been selected as the region most likely to support it.</p>
<p>Twenty years on, the suite of new city-regional authorities being created risks deepening the existing cleavage between England’s major cities and those parts of the country without a large urban metropole. Indeed, some of the devolution agreements recently announced had been stalled for years by the unwillingness of particular authorities to participate in these initiatives. The deal encompassing the cities of the north-east, for example, was held up for years by the refusal of Durham County Council to join its larger urban neighbours.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/inspiring-the-devolution-generation-in-greater-manchester-75790">Inspiring the ‘devolution generation’ in Greater Manchester</a>
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<p>The idea that establishing leadership at the level of a large city and its surrounding hinterland can improve the quality of democratic life, and create a more responsive layer of government, remains appealing for many, despite the unsteady emergence of this model in England.</p>
<p>However, amid attempts by UK politicians and administrators to present this as equivalent to the clearer and more robust forms of governance introduced in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, another important question has emerged. Namely, whether the English have come to feel some jealousy and suspicion about these new forms of government established outside England – and less enthusiasm for the union as a whole.</p>
<h2>A national grievance?</h2>
<p>The idea that England and the English need to be recognised as a distinct national entities within a multi-national union has more popular resonance in an era when debates over sovereignty, national identity and self-determination have become integral to political life</p>
<p>For some, this imperative arises from the belief that changes associated with devolution elsewhere have served to put the English majority at a disadvantage. Some express this in financial terms, arguing that England’s taxpayers have been funding the <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/barnett-formula">more generous per-capita settlements</a> awarded to Northern Ireland and Scotland. Others see it as a reflection of the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-politics-of-english-nationhood-9780198778721?cc=gb&lang=en&">revealed preference of the British political establishment</a> to appease those living in these areas, by awarding their inhabitants additional political rights while neglecting the inhabitants of England’s non-metropolitan areas.</p>
<p>Following the establishment of new parliaments in Belfast, Edinburgh and Cardiff, and the absence of any such model for England, the idea that these reforms have created an imbalance which <a href="https://www.democraticaudit.com/2013/08/15/unfinished-devolution-has-created-constitutional-imbalances-in-the-uk/">puts the largest part of the UK at a disadvantage</a> has become a familiar political sentiment. This was particularly salient when the ability of MPs sitting in Scottish and Welsh seats to vote on contentious legislative proposals that applied only to England became a <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research/research-archive/nations-regions-archive/english-question">controversial political issue</a> – as in 2004, when the Blair government introduced <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/funding-higher-education/#:%7E:text=As%20a%20result%20of%20the,2004%20Act%20was%20highly%20controversial.">controversial legislation</a> requiring students at English universities to pay some of their tuition costs.</p>
<p>The constitutional problem created by this imbalance had been aired in parliament by a number of MPs and members of the House of Lords when devolution was first introduced in the late 1990s. Some argued that one of the unintended effects of these changes might be to engender a feeling of national grievance – perhaps even a reactive nationalism – among the English. But for the most part, this prospect was ignored or scoffed at by politicians from both main political parties.</p>
<p>Soon after the new parliaments were established, however, the question of how reforms elsewhere would affect England – and whether it too needed a mechanism to signal the consent of its MPs to legislation that only affected England – moved into the political mainstream. Some campaigners and MPs suggested that only the <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/sites/constitution-unit/files/179-options-for-an-english-parliament.pdf">establishment of an equivalent English parliament</a> could address the profound imbalance created by the devolution granted to the other UK countries.</p>
<p>In 2015, the David Cameron-led Conservative government introduced a new set of rules for dealing with those parts of legislation that related to England only. Known by the acronym <a href="http://evel.uk/how-does-evel-work/">EVEL</a> (short for “English vote for English laws”), these reforms proved <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/sites/constitution-unit/files/EVEL_Report_A4_FINAL.pdf">immensely complicated to operate</a> and elicited little enthusiasm among MPs, while being almost unknown to the wider public. They were quietly abolished by Johnson’s Tory government in 2020.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tory-votes-for-tory-laws-camerons-evel-plan-to-cut-out-the-opposition-44246">Tory votes for Tory Laws? Cameron's EVEL plan to cut out the opposition</a>
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</em>
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<p>While the idea of remaking the UK along federal lines, with each part of the state having its own parliament for domestic legislation, enjoys some support and may grow in appeal, Britain’s politicians and the vast majority of its constitutional experts remain decidedly cool towards this idea. They believe that pushing in this direction could lead to the dissolution of the UK given the preponderant size and wealth of England – meaning it would have a disproportionate amount of influence within a federated UK.</p>
<p>Such a reform is unwarranted on this view, because England is already the most powerful and important part of the UK governing system, with an overwhelming majority of MPs sitting in English seats. But once the question of how and where England sits within the UK’s increasingly discordant union was raised, it would never be easy to put it back into obscurity.</p>
<h2>‘When will we get a vote?’</h2>
<p>According to some <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/englishness-9780198870784?cc=gb&lang=en&">survey evidence</a>, the people in England most likely to believe their country is losing out in the UK’s current devolution settlement are those most inclined to feel that central government is too distant from – and neglectful of – their lives. They were also the most likely to vote to get the UK out of the EU in 2016.</p>
<p>This sentiment was already a sensitive political topic by the mid-2000s, when Conservative MPs became concerned about the implications of devolution elsewhere for the English, while their Labour counterparts typically preferred to hymn the virtues of regional devolution, particularly in northern England. But how the English and their political representatives felt about these issues took on new relevance during the Scottish independence referendum of 2014.</p>
<p>Towards the end of this contest, an announcement of further devolution to Scotland was made in the form of a <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2015-01-22/the-vow-to-scotlands-been-kept-claims-cameron/">much-trumpeted “vow”</a> endorsed by the leaders of the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem parties. Whether this promise of new powers for the Scottish government made any difference to the outcome of this historic poll is highly debatable. But what was notable was the hostile reaction it elicited in different parts of England – including on the part of many Tory MPs towards their prime minister. Such was the level of annoyance it stirred, Cameron was compelled to hold a gathering at his country retreat, Chequers, to assuage the mutinous mood of these backbenchers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/migrated/news/Both%20England%20and%20Wales%20oppose%20Scottish%20Independence.pdf">Surveys have suggested</a> that a sizeable minority of the English held strong views about the outcome of the Scottish referendum – with about 20% of respondents happy for the Scots to go, and around the same number worried about the impact of Scotland leaving the UK. But another sentiment was palpable at this time. “When will we get a vote?” was a question I recall being put to me again and again by English audience members at various panel discussions over the summer of 2014. Behind it lay a sense of frustration that, in comparison with the Scots, the English were being left disenfranchised as their allegiance to the governing order was taken for granted.</p>
<p>The contrast between the narrow terms in which the “English question” was framed at Westminster and the growing appeal of powerful ideas about sovereignty, democratic control and national self-determination in this period is striking. And it formed an important prelude to the rebellion of the English majority in the Brexit referendum of 2016 when, finally, they were given a vote on an issue of constitutional importance, with profound economic and societal results.</p>
<p>Despite all that’s since been said about that Brexit vote and its impacts, the question of what happens when a national majority becomes more restive about the multinational arrangements in which it sits demands further consideration in this context. As I argue in my new book, <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/fractured-union/">Fractured Union</a>, the future prospects of the UK’s union may even depend on it.</p>
<h2>A lesson from history?</h2>
<p>One – perhaps slightly unexpected – international example worth considering here is Czechoslovakia, which split into the separate states of the Czech Republic and Slovakia on January 1 1993. Despite many differences in context – not least its long history of rule by the Communist party, and the centrifugal dynamics let loose by the party’s disintegration in 1989 – aspects of this story are highly relevant to the current situation facing the Anglo-Scottish Union in particular.</p>
<p>The break-up of Czechoslovakia did not emanate directly from nationalist demands among the populace, but was significantly determined by decisions made at the political level. Just six months prior to the vote, support for the option of splitting Czechoslovakia into two wholly independent states was as low as 16% in both parts of the country. And there is every chance that a referendum on this issue (which came close to happening) would have produced a majority for the continuation of the status quo.</p>
<p>Two decades earlier, in 1968, new legislation established to protect the Slovaks from being dominated by the Czech majority held that constitutional and other important laws had to be passed on the basis of “special majorities”. These provisions were the source of constant grumbling and some resentment on the Czech side, being perceived as anti-democratic checks upon the will of the majority.</p>
<p>Under the political control of the Communist party, these differences were overridden by the party’s interest in the preservation of the wider state. But once Communism ended and a democratic model was introduced, friction between ideas of Slovakian sovereignty and the imperatives of a federal state model accentuated the underlying tensions between these nations and the parliaments where they were represented. In some echo of the Anglo-Scottish situation, many Czechs resented a perceived imbalance at the scale of representation of the Slovaks within the federal government, and <a href="https://journals.akademicka.pl/politeja/article/view/903">questioned the disproportionate transfer of resources</a> to the poorer Slovakian territory.</p>
<p>Despite extended and fraught negotiations over the constitutional framework, the gulf in the constitutional outlooks of politicians from these territories was considerable, with both sets espousing entirely different constitutional perspectives. Agreement was finally reached on a new federal framework in November 1991, but this deal was voted down by the Slovak parliament. Its Czech equivalent thereafter declared that further negotiation with the Slovak side would be pointless.</p>
<p>At the parliamentary elections of June 1992, the main winners in both territories were the political parties least inclined to compromise with the other side. Having given up on negotiations, and with the prospect of a referendum in Slovakia on its future within the state having been abandoned too, the Czech government moved towards the idea of a <a href="https://journals.akademicka.pl/politeja/article/view/913">speedy and complete division</a>.</p>
<h2>Could it happen in the UK?</h2>
<p>Czechoslovakia’s split throws into relief the key role politicians can play in moments of constitutional crisis, as well as the corrosive effect of <a href="https://www.karlobasta.com/symbolic-state">feelings of neglect and unfairness among a national majority</a> that can build up over time. It highlights, too, the challenge of sustaining a union when politicians at central and sub-state levels hold irreconcilable constitutional worldviews, and are fishing for votes in different territorial ponds.</p>
<p>Is it conceivable that some British politicians could, at some point, seek advantage by mobilising an appeal to the English majority against the claims and complaints of the smaller nations in the UK? And might the emergence of public scepticism within parts of the Tory party towards the models of devolved government in Cardiff and Edinburgh be understood as the first signs of such a dynamic?</p>
<p>There have already been moments in the recent political past when the appeal to the defence of neglected English interests has been politically powerful – for instance, during the 2015 general election campaign when the Conservatives deployed images of Labour’s leader, Ed Miliband, sitting in the pocket of the SNP’s leader, Nicola Sturgeon. And this may well recur as a theme in future Westminster elections, particularly if the SNP is able to recover from its current downturn.</p>
<p>However, in the longer run, what will do most to determine how the disaffected inhabitants of “provincial” England feel about devolution – and the lure of greater recognition and protection for English interests – is the quality of governance, service provision and economic opportunity they experience.</p>
<p>In recent years, despite the introduction of metro mayors, there has been little success in closing the regional gaps which “levelling up” was designed to address, and there is a real prospect of yet more local authorities going bankrupt. It would be little wonder, then, if the calls for greater priority to be paid to the concerns of the English heartland grow louder in years to come.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/freedom-of-thought-is-being-threatened-by-states-big-tech-and-even-ourselves-heres-what-we-can-do-to-protect-it-220266?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Freedom of thought is being threatened by states, big tech and even ourselves. Here’s what we can do to protect it
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/mr-bates-vs-the-post-office-depicts-one-of-the-uks-worst-miscarriages-of-justice-heres-why-so-many-victims-didnt-speak-out-220513?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Mr Bates vs The Post Office depicts one of the UK’s worst miscarriages of justice: here’s why so many victims didn’t speak out
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-urgently-needs-more-imagination-competence-alone-will-not-save-us-from-this-polycrisis-193886?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Politics urgently needs more imagination. Competence alone will not save us from this ‘polycrisis’
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<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Kenny receives funding from the British Academy and (previously) the Economic and Social Research Council. His latest book is Fractured Union: Politics, Sovereignty and the Fight to Save the UK (Hurst, January 2024).
</span></em></p>Years of political turbulence, economic shocks and the failure to ‘level up’ as pledged have turned English devolution into a key political and constitutional issueMichael Kenny, Professor of Public Policy, Department of Politics and International Studies, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204572024-01-04T15:44:32Z2024-01-04T15:44:32ZSpycatcher scandal: newly released documents from the Thatcher era reveal the changing nature of government secrecy<p>I grew up in Tasmania in the 1980s. The capital city, Hobart, had a bit of a “living at the edge of the world” feeling in those days. It seemed about as far away from anywhere as you could get. So, I remember the thrill when the first hints of the “Spycatcher” scandal hit. A British spy had “secretly” been living only a few miles away in the sleepy town of Cygnet. To a child, it all felt impossibly adventurous.</p>
<p>The British National Archives has now released a <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/about/news/latest-cabinet-office-files-released/">slew of Cabinet Office papers</a> dealing with the extraordinary series of events surrounding this man and his attempts to publish Spycatcher, a memoir that promised to spill secrets on double agents and assassination plots. Margaret Thatcher, the prime minister at the time, was so concerned about the book’s contents that the UK government launched multiple legal attempts to have it barred from publication. The most famous of these cases unfolded in Australia, where Thatcher had dispatched her top civil servant to fight the former MI5 operative Peter Wright in court.</p>
<p>The documents lay bare how fearful she was about the book. In communications between government officials, we see the intensity of briefings and updates flowing into Number 10 as the court case unfolded in Australia in late 1986. The government was determined to stand by the principle that security information must remain confidential. </p>
<p>The prime minister followed the exchanges closely, as revealed by her <a href="https://cdn.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documents/release-2023-12/prem19-1952.pdf">handwritten comments across documents</a>. These ranged from brief scribbles like “Bad news” (on an update relating to potential revelation of sensitive documents in court), to noting that “the consequences of publication would be enormous” and commenting in frustration that “surely Wright himself is in breach of the Official Secrets Act?”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An archived government document discussing the Spycatcher scandal, including a margin note from Margaret Thatcher about the 'enormous consequences' of the book being released." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Thatcher’s margin notes reveal her concerns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documents/release-2023-12/prem19-1952.pdf">National Archives</a></span>
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<p>The cast of characters in this saga is in itself rather breathtaking. It begins, of course, with the elusive Wright – in my mind’s eye in the 1980s, I had expected him to be a dapper figure in a pinstriped suit. The picture that hit the press at the time instead revealed an old man in a rather incongruous broad-brimmed hat, who did not exude the requisite level of mystery.</p>
<p>Thatcher herself also looms large, as does Robert Armstrong – the head of the civil service she sent across the globe to Sydney like a gun-for-hire, in an extraordinary attempt to prevent the book’s publication. In court, Armstrong would face none other than the up-and-coming Australian barrister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/14/malcolm-turnbull-spycatcher-lawyer-prime-minister">Malcolm Turnbull</a>, appearing for Wright’s publishers.</p>
<p>Turnbull would go on to be Australia’s prime minister 30 years later, but not before eliciting from Armstrong in court his infamous description of having been <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?collection=journals&handle=hein.journals/jlsocty16&id=217&men_tab=srchresults">“economical with the truth”</a> in a letter he had written that was relevant to the case.</p>
<p>What the papers released by the National Archives provide is something rather more than just a good story, however. They provide a rare window into how the British government worked in the 1980s. They offer a marker against which to measure what has changed and what has remained the same in the conventions and traditions that underpin the nation’s political system.</p>
<h2>That was then …</h2>
<p>In the 1980s, aspects of British government could remain shrouded in mystery without expectation of public scrutiny. Even the names of the leaders of MI5 were a closely guarded secret, never mind the workings of their organisation. It was simply not the done thing to discuss issues of national security in public. </p>
<p>The institutional settings of Whitehall and Westminster were built for “governing in private”. Advice was offered and arguments made behind closed doors and away from the public gaze. This applied not just to the security agencies but the civil service in general.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5803/ldselect/ldconst/258/25804.htm">British constitutional theory</a>, the civil service was an indivisible part of the executive government. It was not an independent creature of the parliament, or indeed the wider public. The job of civil servants was to serve ministers in non-partisan ways, based on deep reserves of mutual trust between the political and administrative leaders of government. Armstrong could be sent to the Antipodes knowing that he carried with him the total trust of the prime minister, and vice versa.</p>
<p>His goal, of course, was to stop Wright’s memoir from ever seeing the light of day. In the 1980s, it was still possible for government to believe it might be able to control the spread of information. In a pre-internet age, it still made sense to try very hard to prevent the publication of a book, knowing that its contents could potentially be stopped or contained. Such ideas seem dreamily quixotic in our modern digital age.</p>
<h2>This is now …</h2>
<p>Today, the luxury of being able to govern in private, to carefully consider actions with a degree of secrecy, has given way to far greater scrutiny. Modern expectations of transparency mean that governments are now governing in public, whether they like it or not. Where once the heads of MI5 had their identities protected, we now find them striding the public stage. Stella Rimington, the director general of MI5 in the mid 1990s, published her own <a href="https://shop.nationalarchives.gov.uk/products/open-secret">autobiography</a> in 2001. Her successors give regular public speeches and updates discussing perspectives on national security in ways that would have been unthinkable in the 1980s.</p>
<p>In theory, the status of the wider civil service has not changed – it remains an indivisible part of the executive government. But the bonds of trust have begun to fray. Few of Armstrong’s successors in the civil service could claim the complete trust of a prime minister. And amid the blame games of modern government, ministers and officials can now find themselves in public disagreement, teasing apart the threads of indivisibility that previously kept them in a mutual embrace.</p>
<p>But perhaps the most dramatic change is to the information environment. The relative futility of trying to prevent information from entering the public domain is self-evident. Information – both true and false – flies into the public domain like water through a colander.</p>
<p>A modern government rarely makes the mistake of drawing attention to a set of memoirs by going to great, public lengths to try and stop their publication. Wright died a millionaire. His book was a bestseller. The irony is that he had the British government to thank for boosting his sales. Their attempt to quash what turned out to be a rather innocuous book turned it into an international cause celebre.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A government document outlining concerns about the implication of allowing Spycatcher to be published." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=186&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=186&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=186&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scandal generates book sales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documents/release-2023-12/prem19-1952.pdf">National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Spycatcher saga is a reminder that the nature of British government has changed. It shines a light on the extent to which something seen as an extraordinary public scandal in the 1980s would be seen as far less remarkable today. Modern governments are far more used to the norms of governing in public – for good or ill – in our more transparent age.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220457/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis C Grube received funding from the Australian Research Council in 2013 (grant number DE130101131) for a previous project on the public face of government.</span></em></p>Cabinet Office papers expose Thatcher’s anxiety over the famous book, and the difference between governing in the 1980s and the modern information age.Dennis C Grube, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202942024-01-03T17:39:04Z2024-01-03T17:39:04ZNausées de grossesse : les causes mieux comprises, des espoirs de traitement<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567056/original/file-20231213-19-swroox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5351%2C3500&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Les maux de grossesse toucheraient 7 femmes sur 10 à un moment ou un autre de leur grossesse.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-suffering-morning-sickness-bathroom-home-1041217495">Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Les maux qui surviennent pendant la <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/grossesse-32160">grossesse</a>, ou hyperémèse gravidique, sont fréquents et <a href="https://journals.lww.com/obgynsurvey/abstract/2013/09001/the_impact_of_nausea_and_vomiting_of_pregnancy_on.1.aspx">toucheraient</a> sept femmes sur dix à un moment ou à un autre de leur grossesse. Mais jusqu’à récemment, on ne savait pas grand-chose sur les mécanismes à l’œuvre.</p>
<p>(<em>On parle d’<a href="https://www.ameli.fr/assure/sante/themes/nausees-et-vomissements-pendant-la-grossesse/nauses-vomissements-grossesse-consultation-traitement">hyperémèse gravidique</a> quand les nausées et vomissements au cours de la grossesse atteignent une certaine gravité, ndlr</em>).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06921-9">De nouvelles recherches</a> menées par notre équipe ont montré que la sensibilité à une <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/hormones-34553">hormone</a> produite en abondance quand la grossesse se met en place, le GDF15, contribue au risque de souffrir de ces maux de la grossesse.</p>
<p>Cette maladie peut affecter la qualité de vie des femmes enceintes, même dans les situations dites bénignes. Entre 1 et 3 % des femmes <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31515515/">souffrent</a> d’une forme sévère de maux de grossesse. Les nausées et les vomissements sont si importants que les femmes perdent du poids ou se déshydratent, voire les deux. Selon une étude, cette maladie était la raison la plus fréquente pour laquelle les femmes étaient admises à <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12100809/">l’hôpital</a> au cours des trois premiers mois de leur grossesse.</p>
<p>Cette maladie est <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ppe.12416">associée</a> à des grossesses dont l’issue est plus mauvaise et ses effets se prolongent au-delà de la fin de la grossesse, certaines femmes <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21635201/">faisant état</a> d’une détresse psychologique et hésitant à <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28241811/">concevoir à nouveau</a>.</p>
<p>Le fait qu’elle apparaisse au début de la grossesse et qu’elle disparaisse invariablement quand celle-ci s’achève suggère fortement que la cause de cette maladie est liée au développement de la grossesse. Mais les détails permettant de comprendre comment et pourquoi cette maladie se déclare sont restés insaisissables. Ce manque de compréhension rend difficile la mise au point de traitements et contribue sans doute à la <a href="https://www.pregnancysicknesssupport.org.uk/documents/research%20papers/stigma-of-hg.pdf">stigmatisation</a> considérable associée à cette maladie.</p>
<h2>GDF15</h2>
<p>Le GDF15 est une hormone qui supprime la prise alimentaire chez la souris en agissant, probablement exclusivement, sur un petit groupe de cellules à la base du cerveau qui sont également connues pour induire des nausées et des vomissements. À ce titre, des recherches ont été menées autour du GDF15 dans l’éventualité d’y recourir dans le <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36754014/">traitement de l’obésité</a>.</p>
<p>Les premiers essais chez l’être humain ont confirmé que cette hormone supprime l’appétit. Ils ont montré qu’elle provoque également des <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36630958/">nausées et vomissements</a>. On sait depuis longtemps que le GDF15 est abondant dans le placenta humain et qu’il est présent à des concentrations très élevées dans le sang des femmes enceintes en bonne santé. Ces facteurs en font une cause plausible des maux de la grossesse, mais nous manquons d’éléments de compréhension précis pour dire si le GDF15 affecte la gravité des maux de grossesse.</p>
<p>Nous avons utilisé diverses méthodes pour étudier comment le GDF15 augmente le risque de survenue de maux de grossesse. Nous avons mesuré le GDF15 dans le sang de femmes enceintes qui se rendaient à l’hôpital soit parce qu’elles souffraient de maux de grossesse, soit pour d’autres raisons.</p>
<p>Nous avons constaté que les femmes souffrant de maux de grossesse présentaient effectivement des niveaux plus élevés de GDF15. Même si cela est lié au fait que le GDF15 contribue à la maladie, les niveaux de GDF15 dans chaque groupe se chevauchaient considérablement. Cela suggère que des facteurs autres que la quantité absolue de GDF15 produit quand la grossesse se développe pourraient déterminer le risque de maladie.</p>
<p>Les variations naturelles de l’ADN des futures mères contribuent au risque de survenue de maux de grossesse. Des <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29563502/">études</a> antérieures ont identifié les modifications de l’ADN à proximité de la protéine GDF15 comme étant les principaux facteurs déterminant le risque de survenue de maux de grossesse. En particulier, une mutation génétique rare (présente chez environ une personne sur 1 500), qui affecte la composition de la protéine GDF15 dans le sang, a un <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35218128/">effet</a> important sur ce risque.</p>
<p>(<em>GDF15, comme beaucoup d’hormones, fait partie de la famille des protéines. La synthèse des protéines s’opère à partir d’une information génétique présente sur l’ADN localisée dans le noyau des cellules. Une variation, appelée aussi mutation, au niveau de cette information génétique va modifier la protéine qui en résultera, ndlr</em>).</p>
<p>Pour comprendre l’impact potentiel de ce variant génétique (<em>c’est-à-dire de cette mutation génétique rare, ndlr</em>) sur les niveaux de GDF15 dans la circulation sanguine, nous avons étudié ses effets sur la protéine dans des cellules cultivées en laboratoire.</p>
<p>Nous avons découvert que la molécule GDF15 mutée restait bloquée à l’intérieur des cellules. Qui plus est, elle se colle à la GDF15 « normale » et l’emprisonne, ce qui crée un double effet qui entrave le transport de la GDF15 hors des cellules. Les personnes en bonne santé qui présentent cette mutation ont des taux de GDF15 nettement inférieurs dans le sang, ce qui est conforme à ces résultats.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Une femme enceinte assise sur le bord d’un lit a les mains posées sur son ventre." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Entre 1 % et 3 % des femmes souffrent d’une forme sévère de maux de grossesse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pregnant-woman-sitting-on-bed-holding-310309151">Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nous avons découvert que les modifications de l’ADN à proximité de GDF15, que l’on retrouve chez environ 15 à 30 % des personnes, réduisent les niveaux d’hormone présents. Ces modifications augmentent légèrement le risque de souffrir de maux de grossesse. À l’inverse, chez les femmes atteintes d’une maladie du sang appelée <a href="https://www.orpha.net/data/patho/Han/Int/fr/BetaThalassemie_FR_fr_HAN_ORPHA848.pdf">thalassémie</a>, qui ont des niveaux très élevés de GDF15 tout au long de leur vie, on relève beaucoup moins de nausées et de vomissements pendant la grossesse.</p>
<h2>Une feuille de route pour un traitement</h2>
<p>La conclusion de notre étude est claire : une prédisposition à des niveaux plus élevés de GDF15 en dehors de la grossesse réduit le risque de souffrir de maux de grossesse une fois enceinte. À première vue, cela laisse perplexe, car comment le fait d’avoir des niveaux plus élevés d’une hormone qui vous rend malade peut-il protéger contre les nausées de la grossesse ?</p>
<p>En fait, plusieurs systèmes hormonaux présentent un phénomène similaire à la mémoire dans lequel la sensibilité à une hormone est influencée par une exposition antérieure à cette hormone. Cela semble être l’explication la plus plausible pour comprendre nos résultats. Ce qui supporte cette théorie est le fait que des souris présentant des niveaux élevés et persistants de GDF15 dans leur circulation sanguine ont relativement peu réagi à une augmentation aiguë des niveaux de GDF15.</p>
<p>Nos résultats suggèrent que des niveaux plus faibles de GDF15 avant la grossesse entraînent une hypersensibilité des femmes à des quantités élevées de GDF15 libérées quand la grossesse se développe. Il existe donc deux approches évidentes pour le traitement de cette pathologie : désensibiliser les femmes au GDF15 en augmentant ses niveaux avant la grossesse ou bloquer son action pendant la grossesse.</p>
<p>Le défi consiste maintenant à développer et à tester des stratégies, permettant d’atteindre ces objectifs, qui se révèlent sûres et acceptables pour les femmes exposées à cette maladie invalidante.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220294/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Lockhart bénéficie d'une bourse de doctorat clinique du Wellcome Trust (225479/Z/22). Il est désigné comme l'un des créateurs d'une demande de brevet en cours concernant la thérapie de l'hyperémèse gravidique déposée par Cambridge Enterprise Limited (demande GB n° 2304716.0 ; inventeur : Professeur Stephen O'Rahilly).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen O'Rahilly a travaillé comme consultant rémunéré pour Pfizer, Third Rock Ventures, AstraZeneca, NorthSea Therapeutics et Courage Therapeutics. Une partie des travaux présentés dans cet article fait l'objet d'une demande de brevet en cours concernant la thérapie de l'hyperémèse gravidique déposée par Cambridge Enterprise Limited (demande GB n° 2304716.0 ; inventeur : professeur Stephen O'Rahilly). Sam Lockhart et Stephen O'Rahilly sont les créateurs désignés de ce brevet.</span></em></p>De nouvelles recherches ont permis de découvrir l’hormone qui déclenche les nausées matinales, offrant ainsi un espoir à des millions de femmes.Sam Lockhart, Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellow, Institute of Metabolic Science and Medical Research Council Metabolic Diseases Unit, University of CambridgeStephen O'Rahilly, Professor and Co-Director of the Institute of Metabolic Science and Director of the Medical Research Council Metabolic Diseases Unit, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199972023-12-19T10:55:02Z2023-12-19T10:55:02ZDoctors rank patients’ own assessment of their illness as least important in diagnosis – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566376/original/file-20231218-25-h7xrtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5703%2C3790&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-shot-older-senior-female-patient-2033537717">Ground Picture/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Medical paternalism, where “doctors know best” and patient views and opinions are considered to be of lower importance, is viewed as increasingly unacceptable. We are in an age where patient-centred care and shared-decision making is encouraged between doctors and patients, but is this actually happening?</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/kead685">study</a>, led by Cambridge University and Kings’ College London, is focused on lupus, one of the most challenging autoimmune diseases to diagnose, to manage and to live with. Over 1,000 patients and doctors worldwide took part in the study. The results showed many areas where patient reports were under-valued. </p>
<p>The doctors were asked to rank 13 types of evidence used to diagnose neuropsychiatric lupus, a type of lupus that affects the brain and nervous system. This included blood tests, observations by family or friends, and patient views. </p>
<p>Even though the doctors often acknowledged that they didn’t know much about lupus and that tests were often not accurate, they ranked their own assessments and diagnostic tests highest. Patient self-assessments were ranked the lowest.</p>
<p>Less than 5% of doctors ranked asking patients for their self-assessments (whether their disease was flaring) in the top three types of evidence in diagnostic decisions. This is despite many lupus symptoms – such as headache, hallucinations and depression – being invisible and not testable, and so only captured through self-assessments. </p>
<p>Doctors and patients gave many examples where “subjective” symptoms had been ignored or misdiagnosed. Where this happened, patient <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rap/rkaa037">trust</a> in doctors was usually lost, and some misdiagnoses had led to permanent disability and even death. </p>
<p>Almost half (46%) of the 676 patients reported never or rarely having been asked for their self-assessment of their disease activity. Many patients discussed feeling that their symptoms were not believed unless they were visible to the doctor or validated by test results. </p>
<p>One patient shared how “degrading” this felt, and added “when I enter a medical appointment and my body is being treated as if I don’t have any authority over it and what I’m feeling isn’t valid then that is a very unsafe environment”.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/crQSBKW0R10?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Neuropsychiatric lupus explained.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Objective’ doesn’t necessarily mean ‘accurate’</h2>
<p>The results of this study raise the question of why “objectivity” is often given much more weight in medicine than “subjective” patient reports and views. Part of the reason may be due to a mistaken belief that objective is similar in meaning to accurate. </p>
<p>In reality, objective tests in lupus and other rheumatology diseases can be unrevealing or even misleading. For example, brain scans, even in patients with severe neuropsychiatric lupus, are often completely normal.</p>
<p>Objective test results can be wrong and subjective self-interpretations can often be right.</p>
<p>We must also consider that if a patient is classified as doing well in objective tests (such as blood tests) but feels subjectively very unwell, is the subjective view not more important in terms of the patient’s quality of life? </p>
<p>Doctors face major obstacles in making accurate assessments due to limited resources, including short appointment times, making it difficult to discuss all the patient’s symptoms. We found in our earlier <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/kead369">research</a> that mental health symptoms in lupus and other rheumatology diseases were much more common than doctors realised. </p>
<p>Doctors are often having to make assessments with limited knowledge. They know less about a patient’s symptoms than the patient experiencing them, and this can be compounded by patients not telling their doctors about many of their symptoms due to fear of stigma and misdiagnoses. </p>
<p>Although doctors try to be as objective as possible, no human being can be wholly objective (not influenced by personal feelings or opinions). Our study found evidence that patients’ and doctors’ personal characteristics, particularly gender, may be influencing diagnosis. </p>
<p>This included male doctors being statistically more likely than female doctors to feel patients over-played their symptoms, and reports that female patients received more psychosomatic “in your head” type misdiagnoses. </p>
<p>Many of the symptoms patients told us about – such as increased nightmares, tingling all over, severe fatigue, or feeling “spaced out” before a lupus flare-up – cannot be seen or confirmed by investigations. They are also not on the formal diagnostic criteria. </p>
<h2>Patients need to be involved in diagnostic criteria</h2>
<p>Historically, doctors decided and wrote disease diagnostic criteria and designed research studies without involving patients’ views. Times are fortunately changing and there is now more research where patients are fully involved at every stage as equals. </p>
<p>Hopefully, diagnostic criteria will soon then reflect the reality of patients’ symptoms so that patients and doctors will know which symptoms to look out for and discuss together. </p>
<p>There were positive doctor-patient relationships discussed in the study interviews. For example, one patient told us “[My rheumatologist] knows and recollects every single symptom I have ever told him … he tries to put it together and listens to us so well.” </p>
<p>However, the study found patient views tended to be overlooked. This research highlights that patients may often, although not always, be “expert diagnosticians in their own right”, as one of the psychiatrists interviewed said.</p>
<p>Both views in medical relationships – patients’ depth of “lived” experience, and doctors’ breadth of “learned” experience – need to be respected and valued. This may reap many potential benefits, including quicker and more accurate diagnoses. Stronger collaborative relationships would also ensure more patients feel heard and validated, and lead to greater trust and satisfaction – for both patients and doctors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Sloan receives funding from The Lupus Trust and LUPUS UK </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rupert Harwood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Doctors dismiss patients’ ‘subjective’ symptoms over their ‘objective’ evaluation.Melanie Sloan, Researcher, Public Health, University of CambridgeRupert Harwood, PhD Candidate, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195412023-12-18T14:48:37Z2023-12-18T14:48:37ZmRNA COVID vaccines make ‘unintended proteins’ – we’ve discovered how to fix this problem<p>MRNA, a type of genetic material that provides the instructions your cells need in order to make proteins, used to be a term mainly used by scientists. But since COVID arrived many of us are now familiar with it thanks to the mRNA-based vaccines.</p>
<p>The people behind the discoveries that made mRNA-based vaccines and treatments a possibility were awarded the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobel-prize-in-medicine-awarded-to-mrna-pioneers-heres-how-their-discovery-was-integral-to-covid-vaccine-development-214763">Nobel prize</a> earlier this year. That work showed that some of the mRNA’s chemical letters that make up its alphabet need to be switched out for synthetic equivalents for this technology to be viable. </p>
<p>However, these artificial versions are causing <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/mrna-vaccines-may-make-unintended-proteins-there-s-no-evidence-harm">“unintended proteins”</a> to be made and hence immune responses to these proteins. The question is now: can we prevent this? The answer is yes we can. And it’s a straightforward fix.</p>
<p>Vaccines using all-natural mRNA don’t work. Our immune system recognises them as foreign to the body and mounts a response to remove them, just like it would to any invading germ. </p>
<p>The Nobel prize-winning work of Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman essentially gave the injected mRNA an invisibility cloak – the synthetic “letters” – preventing its detection and destruction by our immune system. This allows safe delivery of the mRNA to cells to do its job. </p>
<p>In the case of the COVID vaccines, our cells make the spike protein and our immune system makes antibodies against it, protecting us from severe disease.</p>
<p>Micro-protein factories called ribosomes read the mRNA instructions to make proteins. They read the code three chemical letters at a time. Each triplet codes for an amino acid – a single building block of a protein. </p>
<p>The ribosome moves along to the next three letters and identifies which amino acid is next to be added to the growing protein. This repeats until it reaches the end of the mRNA instructions.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/A7gSWqpXRsc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How mRNA works.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So where do the “unintended proteins” come from? They are created in the same way, but errors can occur if the ribosome reaches a string of these synthetic chemical letters in the mRNA. </p>
<p>The ribosome can slip, essentially losing its place in what it is reading. For instance, rather than reading THE CAT ATE THE FAT RAT, it reads the message as THE CAT A TET HEF ATR AT, resulting in the production of a different protein.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06800-3">recent study</a>, published in Nature, my colleagues and I revealed that these unintended proteins were produced in a third of the 21 people who participated in the study and were vaccinated with the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. Also, those people generated an immune response against these proteins.</p>
<p>Beyond the strength of the data from the original clinical trial, the safety of the Pfizer vaccine has been re-established by observing millions of vaccine recipients, and the benefits still outweigh the risks for those still recommended to receive it. So our latest study should not affect the safety assessment of existing mRNA COVID vaccines. </p>
<h2>No evidence of harm</h2>
<p>The data is clear: there is no evidence linking unintended proteins and immune responses with harm. </p>
<p>It’s important to note that humans regularly encounter unintended proteins and generate harmless immune responses, as seen with proteins produced from our food or by harmless gut bacteria. These immune responses, which occur in all of us constantly, are controlled by our immune system to prevent them from causing damage to our bodies.</p>
<p>These unintended proteins arising from mRNA vaccines are not random. We know where errors can occur in the mRNA code and can fix them to prevent issues in future mRNA-based therapies.</p>
<p>Luckily, nature provides a fail-safe we can take advantage of. With only 20 different amino acids, but 64 possible sets of three chemical letters, more than one triplet codes for a given amino acid. When designing new mRNA therapeutics, triplets prone to errors can be identified using a simple algorithm and replaced with an alternative spelling of the same code – similar to “mum” and “mom”.</p>
<p>MRNA therapies will be gamechanging for medicine. They are easy to make, can be produced rapidly and are easily modified. Most excitingly, this technology could be used to treat a wide range of diseases, including cancer. </p>
<p>Cancer treatment has been revolutionised by immunotherapy – which uses the patient’s immune system to fight the cancer, but its effectiveness varies. The main hope for making immunotherapy more successful lies in designing mRNA-based cancer vaccines that are personalised to the patient.</p>
<p>This finding raises the new possibility that unintended proteins could be generated by any mRNA therapeutic. Also, it is not possible to be sure that, in the context of cancer treatment, unintended proteins and the immune responses they trigger will be harmless. However, this discovery gives new insights into how these unintended proteins are generated and, most importantly, how modifications can be made to prevent these from arising.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219541/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Willis receives funding from Medical Research Council UK and Wellcome Trust LEAP</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Thaventhiran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>mRNA vaccines are very safe, but this problem needed to be fixed for future mRNA therapies.James Thaventhiran, MRC Investigator, University of CambridgeAnne Willis, Professor of Toxicology Department of Pharmacology, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199172023-12-14T19:10:18Z2023-12-14T19:10:18ZPourquoi notre cerveau est-il devenu aussi énergivore ?<p>C’est l’un des grands paradoxes de l’évolution. L’humain a démontré que le fait d’avoir un <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-humans-have-such-large-brains-our-study-suggests-ecology-was-the-driving-force-96873">gros cerveau</a> est la clé de son succès dans l’évolution, et pourtant ce type de cerveau est extrêmement rare chez les autres animaux. La plupart d’entre eux se débrouillent avec de petits cerveaux et ne semblent pas avoir besoin de plus de neurones.</p>
<p>Pourquoi ? La réponse sur laquelle la plupart des biologistes se sont accordés est de dire que les gros cerveaux sont coûteux en termes d’énergie nécessaire à leur fonctionnement. Et, compte tenu du mode de fonctionnement de la sélection naturelle, les avantages <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9234964/">ne dépasseraient tout simplement pas les coûts</a>.</p>
<p>Mais s’agit-il seulement d’une question de taille ? La façon dont nos cerveaux sont organisés affecte-t-elle leur coût énergétique ? Une nouvelle étude, <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi7632">publiée dans Science Advances</a>, apporte des réponses intéressantes.</p>
<p>Tous nos organes ont des coûts énergétiques de fonctionnement, mais <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2744104">certains sont peu élevés et d’autres très chers</a>. Les os, par exemple,demandent assez peu d’énergie. Bien qu’ils représentent environ 15 % de notre poids, ils n’utilisent que 5 % de notre métabolisme. Les cerveaux sont à l’autre extrémité du spectre, et avec environ 2 % du poids du corps humain typique, leur fonctionnement utilise environ 20 % de notre consommation d’énergie totale. Et ce, sans aucune réflexion particulièrement intense – cela se produit même lorsque nous dormons.</p>
<p>Pour la plupart des animaux, les avantages qu’apporterait un cerveau si énergivore n’en vaudraient tout simplement pas la peine. Mais pour une raison encore inconnue – peut-être la plus grande énigme de l’évolution humaine – les humains ont trouvé des moyens de surmonter les coûts d’un cerveau plus gros et d’en récolter les bénéfices.</p>
<p>Il est certain que les humains doivent supporter les coûts les plus élevés de leur cerveau, mais ces derniers sont-ils différents en raison de la nature particulière de notre cognition ? Le fait de penser, de parler, d’être conscient de soi ou de faire des additions coûte-t-il plus cher que les activités quotidiennes typiques des animaux ?</p>
<p>Il n’est pas facile de répondre à cette question, mais l’équipe à l’origine de cette nouvelle étude, dirigée par Valentin Riedl de l’université technique de Munich, en Allemagne, a relevé le défi.</p>
<p>Les auteurs disposaient d’un certain nombre d’éléments connus pour commencer. La structure de base des neurones est à peu près la même dans tout le cerveau et chez toutes les espèces. La densité neuronale est également la même chez l’homme et les autres primates, de sorte qu’il est peu probable que les neurones soient le moteur de l’intelligence. Si c’était le cas, certains animaux dotés d’un gros cerveau, comme les orques et les éléphants, seraient probablement plus « intelligents » que les humains.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Elephant and woman in village Surin Thailand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Les éléphants ont de plus gros cerveaux que les humains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">venusvi/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ils savaient également qu’au cours de l’évolution humaine, le néocortex – la plus grande partie de la couche externe du cerveau, connue sous le nom de cortex cérébral – s’est développé plus rapidement que les autres parties. Cette région, qui comprend le cortex préfrontal, est responsable des tâches impliquant l’attention, la pensée, la planification, la perception et la mémoire épisodique, toutes nécessaires aux fonctions cognitives supérieures.</p>
<p>Ces deux observations ont amené les chercheurs à se demander si les coûts énergétiques de fonctionnement varient d’une région à l’autre du cerveau.</p>
<p>L’équipe a scanné le cerveau de 30 personnes à l’aide d’une technique permettant de mesurer simultanément le métabolisme du glucose (une mesure de la consommation d’énergie) et la quantité d’échanges entre neurones dans le cortex. Ils ont ensuite pu examiner la corrélation entre ces deux éléments et voir si les différentes parties du cerveau utilisaient des niveaux d’énergie différents.</p>
<h2>Des résultats surprenants</h2>
<p>Les neurobiologistes ne manqueront pas d’analyser et d’explorer les moindres détails de ces résultats, mais d’un point de vue évolutif, ils donnent déjà matière à réflexion. Les chercheurs ont constaté que la différence de consommation d’énergie entre les différentes zones du cerveau est importante. Toutes les parties du cerveau ne sont pas égales, énergétiquement parlant.</p>
<p>Les parties du cerveau humain qui se sont le plus développées ont des coûts plus élevés que prévu. Le néocortex demande environ 67 % d’énergie en plus que les réseaux qui contrôlent nos mouvements.</p>
<p>Cela signifie qu’au cours de l’évolution humaine, non seulement les coûts métaboliques de nos cerveaux ont augmenté au fur et à mesure qu’ils grossissaient, mais qu’ils l’ont fait à un rythme accéléré, le néocortex se développant plus rapidement que le reste du cerveau.</p>
<p>Pourquoi en est-il ainsi ? Un neurone est un neurone, après tout. Le néocortex est directement lié aux fonctions cognitives supérieures.</p>
<p>Les signaux envoyés à travers cette zone sont médiés par des substances chimiques cérébrales telles que la sérotonine, la dopamine et la noradrénaline (neuromodulateurs), qui créent des circuits dans le cerveau pour aider à maintenir un niveau général d’excitation (au sens neurologique du terme, c’est-à-dire d’éveil). Ces circuits, qui régulent certaines zones du cerveau plus que d’autres, contrôlent et modifient la capacité des neurones à communiquer entre eux.</p>
<p>En d’autres termes, ils maintiennent le cerveau actif pour le stockage de la mémoire et la réflexion – un niveau d’activité cognitive généralement plus élevé. Il n’est peut-être pas surprenant que le niveau d’activité plus élevé impliqué dans notre cognition avancée s’accompagne d’un coût énergétique plus élevé.</p>
<p>En fin de compte, il semble que le cerveau humain ait évolué vers des niveaux de cognition aussi avancés non seulement parce que nous avons de gros cerveaux, ni seulement parce que certaines zones de notre cerveau se sont développées de manière disproportionnée, mais aussi parce que la connectivité s’est améliorée.</p>
<p>De nombreux animaux dotés d’un gros cerveau, comme les éléphants et les orques, sont très intelligents. Mais il semble qu’il soit possible d’avoir un gros cerveau sans développer les « bons » circuits pour une cognition de niveau humain.</p>
<p>Ces résultats nous aident à comprendre pourquoi les gros cerveaux sont si rares. Un cerveau de grande taille peut permettre l’évolution d’une cognition plus complexe. Cependant, il ne s’agit pas simplement d’augmenter la taille des cerveaux et l’énergie au même rythme, mais d’assumer des coûts supplémentaires.</p>
<p>Cela ne répond pas vraiment à la question ultime : comment l’homme est-il parvenu à franchir le plafond de l’énergie cérébrale ? Comme souvent dans l’évolution, la réponse se trouve dans l’écologie, la source ultime d’énergie. La croissance et le maintien d’un cerveau de grande taille – quelles que soient les activités sociales, culturelles, technologiques ou autres auxquelles il est destiné – nécessitent un <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.1991.0111">régime alimentaire fiable et de qualité</a>.</p>
<p>Pour en savoir plus, nous devons explorer le dernier million d’années, la période où le cerveau de nos ancêtres s’est réellement développé, afin d’étudier cette interface entre la dépense énergétique et la cognition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Le cerveau humain utilise 20 % de l'énergie que nous consommons, un chiffre élevé qui n’existe chez aucune autre espèce.Robert Foley, Emeritus Professor of Human Evolution, University of CambridgeMarta Mirazon Lahr, Professor of Human Evolutionary Biology & Director of the Duckworth Collection, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196632023-12-14T13:19:15Z2023-12-14T13:19:15ZWe think we have found a cause of pregnancy sickness, and it may lead to a treatment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565507/original/file-20231213-19-swroox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5351%2C3540&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pregnancy sickness is believed to affect 7 in 10 women. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-suffering-morning-sickness-bathroom-home-1041217495">Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sickness in pregnancy, or hyperemesis gravidarum, is common and is thought to <a href="https://journals.lww.com/obgynsurvey/abstract/2013/09001/the_impact_of_nausea_and_vomiting_of_pregnancy_on.1.aspx">affect</a> seven out of ten women at some time in their pregnancy. But, until recently, very little has been known about why it happens. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06921-9">New research</a> by our team has identified sensitivity to a hormone made in abundance by the developing pregnancy, GDF15, as a contributor to the risk of pregnancy sickness.</p>
<p>This condition can affect pregnant women’s quality of life, even in so-called mild cases. Between 1% and 3% of women <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31515515/">suffer</a> from a severe form of pregnancy sickness when nausea and vomiting are so severe that they lose weight or become dehydrated, or both. In one study, this condition was the most common reason that women were admitted to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12100809/">hospital</a> in the first three months of pregnancy. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ppe.12416">associated</a> with worse pregnancy outcomes and its effect lasts beyond the end of pregnancy with some women <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21635201/">reporting</a> psychological distress and being reluctant to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28241811/">conceive again</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that it develops in early pregnancy and invariably resolves when pregnancy ends strongly suggests that the cause of the sickness comes from the developing pregnancy. But the detail on how and why it happens has remained elusive. This dearth of understanding makes the development of treatments difficult and arguably contributes to the considerable <a href="https://www.pregnancysicknesssupport.org.uk/documents/research%20papers/stigma-of-hg.pdf">stigma</a> associated with this condition. </p>
<h2>GDF15</h2>
<p>GDF15 is a hormone that suppresses food intake in mice by acting, probably exclusively, on a small group of cells at the base of the brain which are also known to induce nausea and vomiting. As such, GDF15 has been under investigation as an <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36754014/">obesity therapy</a>. </p>
<p>Early trials confirm it suppresses appetite in people, but it also causes <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36630958/">nausea and vomiting</a>. It has long been known that it is abundant in human placenta and is present at very high concentrations in the blood of healthy pregnant women. These factors make it a plausible cause, but a detailed understanding of if GDF15 affects the severity of sickness in pregnancy has been lacking. </p>
<p>We used a variety of methods to study how GDF15 increases the risk of pregnancy sickness. We measured GDF15 in the blood of pregnant women attending hospital due to sickness and those attending hospital for other reasons. </p>
<p>We found that women with pregnancy sickness did indeed have higher levels of GDF15. While this was in keeping with GDF15 contributing to the condition, levels of GDF15 in each group overlapped substantially. This suggests that factors other than the absolute amount of GDF15 coming from the developing pregnancy might determine the risk of sickness.</p>
<p>Natural variation in DNA of future mothers contributes to risk of pregnancy sickness. Previous <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29563502/">studies</a> have identified changes in DNA near GDF15 as the biggest determinants of risk of pregnancy sickness. In particular, one rare genetic mutation (present in around one in 1,500 people) that affects the make-up of the GDF15 protein in the blood, has a large <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35218128/">effect</a> on that risk. </p>
<p>To understand the potential impact of this genetic variant on GDF15 levels in the bloodstream, we studied its effects on the protein in lab-grown cells. We discovered that this mutated GDF15 molecule gets stuck inside cells. What’s more, it actually stuck to and trapped “normal” GDF15 – this creates a double hit that hinders the transport of GDF15 out of cells. Healthy people with this mutation have markedly lower levels of GDF15 in their blood, which is consistent with these findings.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pregnant woman sits on the edge of a bed clutching her bump." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565574/original/file-20231213-21-z851cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Between 1% and 3% of women suffer from a severe form of pregnancy sickness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pregnant-woman-sitting-on-bed-holding-310309151">Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We discovered that DNA changes near GDF15, which are prevalent in about 15 to 30% of people, lower the levels of the hormone. These changes increase the risk of pregnancy sickness by small amounts. Conversely, women with the blood disorder <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/thalassaemia/">thalassaemia</a>, who have very high levels of GDF15 throughout life, actually reported much less nausea and vomiting in pregnancy.</p>
<h2>A roadmap to treatment</h2>
<p>The conclusion of these studies is clear –- predisposition to higher levels of GDF15 when not pregnant reduces the risk of pregnancy sickness. At first glance, this is rather perplexing because how can having higher levels of a hormone that makes you sick protect against pregnancy sickness? </p>
<p>In fact, several hormone systems exhibit a phenomenon resembling memory, where the sensitivity to a hormone is influenced by previous exposure to that hormone. This seemed like the most plausible explanation for our results. Supporting this theory, mice with persistently high levels of GDF15 in their bloodstream were relatively unresponsive to an acute surge in GDF15 levels. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that lower levels of GDF15 before pregnancy result in women being hypersensitive to the large amounts of GDF15 being released from the developing pregnancy. This poses two obvious approaches to treatment of this condition –- desensitising women to GDF15 by increasing its levels before pregnancy or blocking its action during pregnancy. </p>
<p>The challenge now is to develop and test strategies to achieve these aims that are safe and acceptable to women at risk from this debilitating condition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Lockhart is supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellowship (225479/Z/22). SL is a named creator of a pending patent application relating to therapy for hyperemesis gravidarum filed by Cambridge Enterprise Limited (GB application No. 2304716.0; Inventor: Professor Stephen O’Rahilly.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen O'Rahilly has undertaken remunerated consultancy work for Pfizer, Third Rock Ventures, AstraZeneca, NorthSea Therapeutics and Courage Therapeutics. Part of the work in this paper is the subject of a pending patent application relating to therapy for hyperemesis gravidarum filed by Cambridge Enterprise Limited (GB application No. 2304716.0; Inventor: Professor Stephen O’Rahilly). SL and NR are named creators on this patent.</span></em></p>New research has uncovered the hormone that triggers morning sickness, offering hope for millions of women.Sam Lockhart, Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellow, Institute of Metabolic Science and Medical Research Council Metabolic Diseases Unit, University of CambridgeStephen O'Rahilly, Professor and Co-Director of the Institute of Metabolic Science and Director of the Medical Research Council Metabolic Diseases Unit, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196692023-12-13T19:01:44Z2023-12-13T19:01:44ZHuman intelligence: how cognitive circuitry, rather than brain size, drove its evolution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565513/original/file-20231213-20-grbqn0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C33%2C2779%2C1837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">wikipedia/Foley</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s one of the great paradoxes of evolution. Humans have demonstrated that having <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-humans-have-such-large-brains-our-study-suggests-ecology-was-the-driving-force-96873">large brains</a> are key to our evolutionary success, and yet such brains are extremely rare in other animals. Most get by on tiny brains, and don’t seem to miss the extra brain cells (neurons). </p>
<p>Why? The answer that most biologists have settled on is that large brains are costly in terms of the energy they require to run. And, given the way natural selection works, the benefits <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9234964/">simply don’t exceed the costs</a>. </p>
<p>But is it just a matter of size? Does the way our brains are laid out also affect their costs? A new study, <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi7632">published in Science Advances</a>, has produced some intriguing answers. </p>
<p>All our organs have running costs, but <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2744104">some are cheap and others expensive</a>. Bones, for example, are relatively cheap. Although they make up around 15% of your weight, they only use 5% of your metabolism. Brains are at the other end of the spectrum, and at about 2% of typical human body weight, running them uses around 20% of our metabolism. And this without doing any conscious thinking – it even happens when we’re asleep.</p>
<p>For most animals, the benefits of serious thinking are simply not worth it. But for some reason – the greatest puzzle in human evolution, perhaps – humans found ways to overcome the costs of having a larger brain and reap the benefits.</p>
<p>All this is fairly well known, but there is a more tantalising question. Certainly humans have to bear the greater costs of our brains because they are so large, but are there different costs because of the special nature of our cognition? Does thinking, speaking, being self-conscious or doing sums cost more than typical day-to-day animal activities?</p>
<p>It’s not an easy question to answer, but the team behind the new study, led by Valentin Riedl of the Technical University of Munich, Germany, have risen to the challenge. </p>
<p>The authors had a number of known points to start with. The basic design and structure of neurons is much the same across the brain – and across species. The neuronal density is also the same for humans and other primates, so these are unlikely to be the driver of intelligence. If they were, some animals with large brains such as orcas and elephants would likely be smarter than humans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Elephant and woman in village Surin Thailand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565485/original/file-20231213-19-jr94u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elephants have larger brains than humans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">venusvi/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They also knew that across human evolution, the neocortex – the largest part of the outermost layer of the brain, known as cerebral cortex – has expanded at a greater rate than other parts. This region, which involves the prefrontal cortex, is responsible for tasks involving attention, thought, planning, perception and episodic memory – all needed for higher cognitive function.</p>
<p>These two observations led them to investigate whether there are different costs of signalling across different regions of the brain.</p>
<p>The team scanned the brains of 30 people using a technique that could simultaneously measure glucose metabolism (a measure of energy consumption) and the level of signalling across the cortex. They could then look at the correlation between these two elements and see whether different parts of the brain used different levels of energy – and if so how. </p>
<h2>Surprising findings</h2>
<p>Neurobiologists will surely ponder and explore the fine details of the results, but from an evolutionary point of view, they are thought-provoking. What they found is that the difference in energy consumption between different areas of the brain is big. Not all bits of the brain are equal, energetically speaking.</p>
<p>Not only that, but the parts of the human brain that have expanded most had higher costs than expected. The neocortex in fact demanded around 67% more energy than sensorimotor networks per gram of tissue. </p>
<p>This means that during the course of human evolution, not only did the metabolic costs of our brains go up as they became larger, but they did so at an accelerating rate as the neocortex expanded faster than the rest of the brain. </p>
<p>Why should that be the case? A neuron is a neuron, after all. The neocortex relates directly to higher cognitive function. </p>
<p>The signals sent across this area are mediated through brain chemicals such as serotonin, dopamine and noradrenaline (neuromodulators), which create circuits in the brain to help maintain a general level of excitement (in a neurological sense of the word meaning being awake, not having fun). These circuits, which regulate some brain areas more than others, control and modify the ability of neurons across the brain to communicate with each other.</p>
<p>In other words, they keep the brain active for memory storage and thinking – a generally higher level of cognitive activity. Not surprisingly, perhaps, the higher level of activity involved in our advanced cognition comes at a higher energetic cost.</p>
<p>Ultimately then, it seems the human brain evolved to such advanced levels of cognition not just because we have large brains, nor even just because certain areas of our brain grew disproportionately big, but because – at a cost – the connectivity improved.</p>
<p>Many animals with large brains, such as elephants and orcas, are highly intelligent. But it seems it is possible to have a large brain without developing the “right” circuitry for human-level cognition.</p>
<p>The results help us understand why larger brains are so rare. A larger brain can enable more complex cognition to evolve. It is not just a matter of scaling up brains and energy at the same rate though, but taking on additional costs.</p>
<p>This doesn’t really answer the ultimate question – how did humans manage to break through the brain-energy ceiling? As so often in evolution, the answer must lie in ecology, the ultimate source of energy. To grow and maintain a large brain – whatever social, cultural, technological or other things it is used for – <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.1991.0111">requires a dependable and high quality diet</a>.</p>
<p>To learn more, we need to explore the last million years, the period when our ancestors’ brains really expanded, to investigate this interface between energy expenditure and cognition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The human brain uses up 20% of the energy we consume.Robert Foley, Emeritus Professor of Human Evolution, University of CambridgeMarta Mirazon Lahr, Professor of Human Evolutionary Biology & Director of the Duckworth Collection, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2177592023-12-08T16:37:43Z2023-12-08T16:37:43ZThe disagreement between two climate scientists that will decide our future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564531/original/file-20231208-25-i2uuog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2700%2C1797&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/earth-observation-outer-space-elements-this-544968547">Vladi333/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Getting to net zero emissions by mid-century is conventionally understood as humanity’s best hope for keeping Earth’s surface temperature (already 1.2°C above its pre-industrial level) from increasing well beyond 1.5°C – potentially reaching a point at which it could cause widespread societal breakdown. </p>
<p>At least one prominent climate scientist, however, disagrees. </p>
<p>James Hansen of Columbia University in the US published <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889?searchresult=1">a paper</a> with colleagues in November which claims temperatures are set to rise further and faster than the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXDWpBlPCY8">In his view</a>, the 1.5°C target is dead. </p>
<p>He also claims net zero is no longer sufficient to prevent warming of more than 2°C. To regain some control over Earth’s rising temperature, Hansen supports accelerating the retirement of fossil fuels, greater cooperation between major polluters that accommodates the needs of the developing world and, controversially, intervening in Earth’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-dimming-the-sun-would-be-an-effective-tool-in-the-fight-against-climate-change-218670">radiation balance</a>” (the difference between incoming and outgoing light and heat) to cool the planet’s surface. </p>
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<p>There would probably be wide support for the first two prescriptions. But Hansen’s support for what amounts to the deliberate reduction of sunlight reaching Earth’s surface has brought into the open an idea that makes many uncomfortable. </p>
<p>Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania in the US and another <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/behind-the-hockey-stick/">titan of climate science</a>, spoke for many when he <a href="https://michaelmann.net/content/comments-new-article-james-hansen">dismissed solar radiation management</a> as “potentially very dangerous” and a “desperate action” motivated by the “fallacy … that large-scale warming will be substantially greater than current-generation models project”. </p>
<p>Their positions are irreconcilable. So who is right – Hansen or Mann?</p>
<h2>Earth’s radiation balance</h2>
<p>First, an explanation. </p>
<p>There are only two ways to reduce global warming. One is to increase the amount of heat radiated from Earth’s surface that escapes to space. The other is to increase the amount of sunlight reflected back to space before it lands on something – whether a particle in the atmosphere or something on Earth’s surface – and is converted to heat.</p>
<p>There are many ways to do both. Anything that reduces the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere will let more heat escape to space (replacing fossil fuels with renewables, eating less meat and tilling the soil less for example). Anything that makes the planet brighter will reflect more sunlight to space (such as refreezing the Arctic, making clouds whiter or putting more reflective particles in the atmosphere). </p>
<p>But the key difference between the two, in terms of their impact on global warming, is their response time. That is, the time it takes for a change in the factors that allow more heat to escape or sunlight to be reflected to appear as a change in Earth’s surface temperature. </p>
<p>Intervening to speed up the loss of heat from Earth’s surface cools the planet slowly, over decades and longer. Intervening to increase the sunlight Earth reflects back to space cools the planet more or less immediately. </p>
<p>The essence of the dispute between Mann and Hansen is whether reducing greenhouse gases, by a combination of reducing new emissions and permanently removing past emissions from the atmosphere, is now enough on its own to prevent warming from reaching levels that threaten economic and social stability.</p>
<p>Mann says it is. Hansen says that, while doing these things remains essential, it is no longer sufficient and we must also make Earth more reflective.</p>
<h2>When will warming end?</h2>
<p>Mann aligns with IPCC orthodoxy when he says that emissions reaching net zero will result, within a decade or two, in Earth’s surface temperature stabilising at the level it has then reached. </p>
<p>In effect, there is no significant warming in the pipeline from past emissions. All future warming will be due to future emissions. This is the basis for the global policy imperative to get to net zero.</p>
<p>In his new paper, Hansen argues that if the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases remains close to its current level, the surface temperature will stabilise after several hundred years between 8°C and 10°C above the pre-industrial level.</p>
<p>Of this, at least 2°C will emerge by mid-century, and probably a further 3°C a century from now. A temperature increase of this magnitude would be catastrophic for life on Earth. Hansen adds that to avoid such an outcome, brightening Earth is now necessary to halt the warming in the pipeline from past emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Crevices in an ice sheet." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564511/original/file-20231208-15-2uidqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564511/original/file-20231208-15-2uidqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564511/original/file-20231208-15-2uidqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564511/original/file-20231208-15-2uidqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564511/original/file-20231208-15-2uidqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564511/original/file-20231208-15-2uidqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564511/original/file-20231208-15-2uidqq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bright surfaces, like ice sheets, reflect light to space.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/deep-crevices-on-ice-sheet-greenland-1641825838">Tobetv/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>But at the same time, we must also largely eliminate emissions if we are to stop recreating this problem in the future.</p>
<h2>Still getting hotter…</h2>
<p>We are scientists who study the feasibility and effectiveness of alternative responses to climate change, addressing both the engineering and political realities of enabling change at the scale and speed necessary. </p>
<p>We find Mann’s rebuttal of Hansen’s claims unconvincing. Crucially, Mann does not engage directly with Hansen’s analysis of new data covering the last 65 million years.</p>
<p>Hansen explains how the models used by IPCC scientists to assess future climate scenarios have significantly underestimated the warming effect of increased greenhouse gas emissions, the cooling effect of aerosols and how long the climate takes to respond to these changes. </p>
<p>Besides greenhouse gases, humanity also emits aerosols. These are tiny particles comprising a wide range of chemicals. Some, such as the sulphur dioxide emitted when coal and oil are burned, offset the warming from greenhouse gases by reflecting sunlight back to space. </p>
<p>Others, such as soot, have the opposite effect and add to warming. The cooling aerosols dominate by a large margin.</p>
<p>Hansen projects that in coming months, <a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-cools-climate-more-than-expected-this-makes-cutting-carbon-emissions-more-urgent-192433">lower levels of aerosol pollution</a> from shipping will cause warming of as much as 0.5°C more than IPCC models have predicted. This will take global warming close to 2°C as early as next year, although it is likely then to fall slightly as the present El Niño wanes.</p>
<p>Underpinning Hansen’s argument is his conviction that the climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than previously reported. The IPCC estimates that doubling atmospheric CO₂ raises Earth’s temperature by 3°C. Hansen calculates it to be 4.8°C. </p>
<p>This, and the much longer climate response time that Hansen calculates from the historical record, would have a significant impact on climate model projections.</p>
<h2>Time for reflection</h2>
<p>The differences between Mann and Hansen are significant for the global response to climate change. </p>
<p>Mann says that allowing emissions to reach net zero by mid-century is sufficient, while Hansen maintains that on its own it would be disastrous and that steps must now be taken in addition to brighten the planet.</p>
<p>Brightening Earth could also reverse the reductions in reflectivity already caused by climate change. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL094888">Data indicates</a> that from 1998 to 2017, Earth dimmed by about 0.5 watts per square metre, largely due to the loss of ice.</p>
<p>Given what’s at stake, we hope Mann and Hansen resolve these differences quickly to help the public and policymakers understand what it will take to minimise the likelihood of imminent massive and widespread ecosystem destruction and its disastrous effects on humanity. </p>
<p>While 1.5°C may be dead, there may still be time to prevent cascading system failures. But not if we continue to squabble over the nature and extent of the risks.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is reaching net zero emissions by 2050 enough to halt warming? One leading scientist says no.Robert Chris, Honorary Associate, Geography, The Open UniversityHugh Hunt, Professor of Engineering Dynamics and Vibration, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.