tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-east-anglia-1268/articlesThe University of East Anglia2024-03-15T17:34:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257442024-03-15T17:34:08Z2024-03-15T17:34:08ZLa prochaine pandémie ? Les animaux la vivent déjà. La grippe aviaire décime de nombreuses espèces<p>Je suis une biologiste de la conservation et j’étudie les maladies infectieuses émergentes. Quand on me demande quelle sera la prochaine pandémie, je réponds souvent que nous en vivons une en ce moment, mais qu’elle touche d’autres espèces que la nôtre.</p>
<p>Je fais référence à la souche hautement pathogène de la grippe aviaire H5N1 (IAHP H5N1) qui a tué des millions d’oiseaux et un nombre indéterminé de mammifères, surtout au cours des trois dernières années.</p>
<p>Cette souche est apparue chez les oies domestiques en Chine en 1997 et s’est rapidement propagée à l’humain en Asie du Sud-Est, avec un taux de mortalité de <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634780/">40 à 50 %</a>. Mon groupe de recherche <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634780/">a été en contact</a> pour la première fois avec le virus en 2005 lorsqu’il a causé la mort de <a href="https://svw.vn/owstons-civet/">civettes palmistes d’Owston</a>, un mammifère menacé d’extinction, qui faisaient partie d’un programme d’élevage en captivité dans le parc national de Cuc Phuong, au Viêt Nam.</p>
<p>On ignore comment ces bêtes ont contracté la grippe aviaire. Leur régime alimentaire se compose essentiellement de vers de terre, de sorte qu’elles n’ont pas été infectées par la consommation de volailles malades, comme c’est arrivé pour des tigres en captivité de la région.</p>
<p>Cette découverte nous a incités à compiler tous les cas confirmés de mort par la grippe aviaire afin d’évaluer l’ampleur du péril que ce virus pourrait représenter pour la faune sauvage.</p>
<p>Voici comment un virus récemment détecté dans des élevages de volailles chinoises en est venu à menacer une partie importante de la biodiversité mondiale.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Une personne en combinaison blanche conduit un chariot élévateur à fourche transportant des dindes mortes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Le virus H5N1 est apparu dans une ferme avicole chinoise en 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/western-negev-israel-march-18-2006-111241157">ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Les premiers signes</h2>
<p>Jusqu’en décembre 2005, la plupart des infections confirmées avaient été trouvées dans quelques zoos et refuges en Thaïlande et au Cambodge. Notre étude de 2006 a montré que près de la moitié (48 %) des différents groupes d’oiseaux (ou « ordres », selon les taxonomistes) comportaient une espèce chez laquelle on avait signalé des cas de mort par la grippe aviaire. Ces 13 ordres représentent 84 % de toutes les espèces d’oiseaux.</p>
<p>Il y a 20 ans, nous avons estimé que les souches de H5N1 en circulation étaient probablement hautement pathogènes pour tous les ordres d’oiseaux. Nous avons également observé que la liste des espèces chez lesquelles on avait confirmé une infection comprenait des espèces menacées à l’échelle mondiale et que des habitats importants, tels que le delta du Mékong au Viêt Nam, se trouvent à proximité de foyers d’éclosion chez les volailles.</p>
<p>Parmi les mammifères qu’on sait avoir été exposés à la grippe aviaire au début des années 2000, on compte des primates, des rongeurs, des porcs et des lapins. De grands carnivores tels que des tigres du Bengale et des panthères nébuleuses en sont morts, ainsi que des chats domestiques.</p>
<p>Des animaux de zoo ayant mangé des volailles infectées figurent parmi les premières victimes de la grippe aviaire.</p>
<p>Notre article de 2006 montrait la facilité avec laquelle ce virus franchit la barrière d’espèce et suggérait qu’il pourrait un jour constituer une menace pandémique pour la biodiversité mondiale.</p>
<p>Malheureusement, nous avions raison.</p>
<h2>Une maladie qui s’étend</h2>
<p>Près de vingt ans plus tard, la grippe aviaire tue des espèces de <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2039158/alaska-aviaire-mammifere-infection">l’Extrême-Arctique</a> jusqu’à la <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/environnement/video/la-grippe-aviaire-a-atteint-l-antarctique-une-potentielle-catastrophe-pour-les-pingouins_230419.html">péninsule antarctique</a>.</p>
<p>Ces dernières années, la grippe aviaire s’est rapidement propagée en Europe et s’est infiltrée en Amérique du Nord et du Sud, causant la mort de millions de volailles et de diverses espèces d’oiseaux et de mammifères. Selon un <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article">récent article</a>, 26 pays ont signalé la mort de mammifères d’au moins 48 espèces différentes des suites du virus depuis 2020, date de la dernière hausse du nombre d’infections.</p>
<p>Même l’océan n’est pas à l’abri. Depuis 2020, 13 espèces de mammifères aquatiques ont été touchées, notamment des otaries, des marsouins et des dauphins, dont certaines meurent par milliers en Amérique du Sud. Il est désormais confirmé qu’un grand nombre de mammifères charognards et prédateurs vivant sur la terre ferme, tels que des cougars, des lynx, et des ours bruns, noirs et polaires, sont également affectés.</p>
<p>Le Royaume-Uni à lui seul <a href="https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/seabird-surveys-project-report">a perdu plus de 75 %</a> de ses grands labbes et a connu un déclin de 25 % de ses fous de Bassan. Le déclin récent des sternes caugek (35 %) et des sternes pierregarin (42 %) est aussi <a href="https://maryannsteggles.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bird-flu-causing-%E2%80%98catastrophic-fall-in-UK-seabird-numbers-conservationists-warn-Bird-flu-The-G.pdf">causé en grande partie par le virus</a>.</p>
<p>Les scientifiques n’ont pas encore réussi à <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article">séquencer complètement</a> le virus chez toutes les espèces touchées. La recherche et une surveillance soutenue pourraient nous indiquer dans quelle mesure il peut s’adapter et s’il peut s’étendre à d’autres espèces. Nous savons qu’il infecte déjà des humains – avec quelques mutations génétiques, il risque de devenir plus contagieux.</p>
<h2>À la croisée des chemins</h2>
<p>Du 1<sup>er</sup> janvier 2003 au 21 décembre 2023, on a rapporté 882 cas d’infection humaine par le virus H5N1 dans 23 pays, dont <a href="https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/influenza/human-animal-interface-risk-assessments/influenza-at-the-human-animal-interface-summary-and-assessment--from-4-october-to-1-november-2023.pdf">461 (52 %) ont été fatals</a>.</p>
<p>Plus de la moitié des morts se sont produites au Viêt Nam, en Chine, au Cambodge et au Laos. Des infections transmises de volaille à humain ont été enregistrées pour la première fois au Cambodge en décembre 2003. On a signalé des cas sporadiques jusqu’en 2014, puis on a observé une interruption jusqu’en 2023, où il y a eu 41 décès pour 64 cas. On a détecté le sous-type H5N1 chez des volailles au Cambodge depuis 2014. </p>
<p>Au début des années 2000, le virus H5N1 en circulation avait un taux de mortalité élevé chez les humains. Il est donc inquiétant de constater que des gens meurent à nouveau après avoir été en contact avec des volailles.</p>
<p>Les sous-types H5 de la grippe aviaire ne sont pas les seuls à préoccuper les humains. Le virus H10N1 a été isolé à l’origine chez des oiseaux sauvages en Corée du Sud. On a signalé sa présence dans des échantillons provenant de Chine et de Mongolie.</p>
<p>Des <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1256090/full">recherches récentes</a> ont montré que ces sous-types de virus étaient pathogènes chez des souris et des furets de laboratoire et qu’ils pourraient infecter les humains. La première personne dont l’infection par le virus H10N5 a été confirmée <a href="https://www.who.int/fr/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON504">est décédée</a> en Chine le 27 janvier 2024, mais elle était également atteinte d’une grippe saisonnière (H3N2). Elle avait été en contact avec des volailles vivantes qui se sont révélées positives pour le virus H10N5.</p>
<p>Des espèces menacées d’extinction ont connu des morts de la grippe aviaire au cours des trois dernières années. On vient de confirmer que le virus a fait ses premières victimes dans la péninsule antarctique <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-reaches-antarcticas-mainland">chez les grands labbes</a>, ce qui constitue une menace imminente pour les colonies de pingouins dont les grands labbes mangent les œufs et les poussins. Le virus a déjà tué des <a href="https://ccnse.ca/resources/evidence-briefs/la-grippe-aviaire-ah5n1-poursuite-de-la-flambee">manchots de Humboldt</a> au Chili.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Une colonie de manchots" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Des colonies de manchots sont déjà menacées par les changements climatiques.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/king-penguin-colony-103683413">(AndreAnita/Shutterstock)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Comment peut-on endiguer ce tsunami de H5N1 et d’autres grippes aviaires ? Il faut revoir complètement la production de volaille à l’échelle mondiale et rendre les exploitations autosuffisantes en matière d’élevage d’œufs et de poussins au lieu d’en faire l’exportation. En outre, la tendance aux mégafermes de plus d’un million d’oiseaux doit être enrayée.</p>
<p>Pour éviter les pires conséquences de ce virus, il faut se pencher sur sa source première : l’incubateur que sont les élevages intensifs de volailles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225744/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Bell ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>La grippe aviaire décime des espèces déjà menacées par le changement climatique et la perte d’habitat.Diana Bell, Professor of Conservation Biology, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258282024-03-15T14:22:33Z2024-03-15T14:22:33ZHalf the world will vote in 2024, but how many elections will be fair?<p>This year has been widely proclaimed to be the year of elections, with national elections expected in at least <a href="https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/">64 countries</a>. This means that half of the world’s population will have the opportunity to change their government, choose their representatives and indirectly shape policy. It began as a year of hope – and the prospect of democratic empowerment.</p>
<p>But so far in 2024, elections have already been marred by problems. February elections in Pakistan were riddled with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/03/shehbaz-sharif-sworn-in-as-prime-minister-of-pakistan">allegations of rigging and irregularities</a>. </p>
<p>Polls were opened in Belarus, but were labelled as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/25/belarus-elections-alexander-lukashenko-opposition">“farce”</a> by opposition parties, most of which were banned from the ballot paper. International observers <a href="https://www.osce.org/odihr/563046">have called out</a> crackdowns on human rights defenders and activists who have been “imprisoned in deplorable conditions, without the right to a fair trial”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, voters are heading to the polls in Russia, where all meaningful opposition was effectively stifled before election day. The results were declared by many as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-recap-russian-election-special-and-the-winner-will-be-vladimir-putin-225835">foregone conclusion</a> before the ballots are counted. </p>
<p>Threats to elections such as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f23c01-fa51-408e-acf5-0d30a5a1ebf2">disinformation</a>, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/reimagining-federal-election-funding/">inadequate funding of electoral authorities</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-68531799">a lack of transparency over political donations</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-reasons-britains-impending-voter-id-law-is-a-bad-idea-196436">restrictive voter identification requirements</a> have been flagged as concerns elsewhere in the world where elections are due to happen – including the UK.</p>
<h2>Summit for Democracy</h2>
<p>This should come as no surprise. The reality and wider narrative in 2024 has been that we live in an era of “democratic backsliding”. According to a recent report from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, entitled <a href="https://v-dem.net/documents/43/v-dem_dr2024_lowres.pdf">The Varieties of Democracy</a>, the global level of democracy in 2023 was back to that in 1985 – before the collapse of the Soviet Union. </p>
<p>Autocracy has been growing in eastern Europe and south and central Asia. There are also signs of democratic decline even in the older democracies such as the <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2024/03/backsliding_report_digital_v1.pdf">UK</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01442872.2021.1957459">USA</a>. </p>
<p>In response to these broad international developments, the US president, Joe Biden, launched the <a href="https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy-2021/">Summit for Democracy</a> in December 2021, claiming that the defence of democracy was “the defining challenge of our time”. </p>
<p>Political leaders were asked to make commitments to improve democracy in their own backyard. More than 100 governments made <a href="https://summit4democracy.org/commitments/">written and video commitments</a> for how they would do this. The first summit was virtual because of the pandemic, but this year, leaders are flying to Seoul, South Korea, for the <a href="https://s4dkorea.kr/?menuno=5">third Summit</a> to discuss how to improve the quality of democracy and elections in their countries. </p>
<p>There is considerable work to be done to improve elections globally. Since 2012, the <a href="https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/">Electoral Integrity Project</a>, an international academic think tank which researches how to improve elections, has published <a href="https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/global-report-2023">data on election quality</a>. The map below shows the average election quality between 2012-2022, using this data. Countries in green have the highest quality, while those in red have a lot of work to do to improve election quality.</p>
<p>Election quality is the highest in Finland (see graphic) where electoral laws are fair to smaller parties, voter registration is seamless and electoral authorities are professional. </p>
<p>Across the border in Russia, where – as we’ve heard – voters are headed to the polls, the government has almost complete control of the broadcast media which slavishly toes the government line, election results lack transparency, most prominent opposition candidates are banned from the ballot – or are either in prison, exiled, or – as in the case of Alexey Navalny – have <a href="https://theconversation.com/alexei-navalny-reported-death-of-putins-most-prominent-opponent-spells-the-end-of-politics-in-russia-223766">died in mysterious circumstances</a>.</p>
<p>But even in Finland there are areas for improvement. There is scope for better transparency in how election campaigns are funded and equal access to campaign funds. </p>
<p>Finland is not alone – money is the biggest threat to elections. Campaign finance is weakest aspect of elections around the world according to our data. The idea that underpins democracy is that everyone has an equal chance at the ballot box. So finding a way to stop the flows of money that give some candidates and parties an unfair advantage remains a central problem. </p>
<h2>Commitments missing the mark</h2>
<p>Leaders have been reluctant to use previous summits as an opportunity to make commitments to improve their elections. So far in the first two summits, only 19 countries <a href="https://commitments.summitfordemocracyresources.eu/">have committed</a> to improving the quality of their elections.</p>
<p>But some leaders have set examples by making pledges to improve the integrity of their country’s elections. In 2021, Ireland set out an extensive <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/IRELAND-Summit-for-Democracy-Written-Statement-Accessible-Final.pdf">range of commitments</a>, some of which are now a reality. This included setting up an independent <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.ie/">electoral commission</a> at a time where the independence of electoral authorities has been claimed to be under pressure in countries including <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-plans-to-take-control-of-the-independent-electoral-commission-in-another-assault-on-democratic-institutions-171366">the UK</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/07/mexico-democracy-protestst-lopez-obrador-amlo/">Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, Ireland has been addressing weaknesses in its electoral processes. As the graphic above shows, Ireland’s greatest weakness elections is its voter registration process – and the Electoral Reform Act of 2022 has set in train a process for <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/859a0-significant-modernisation-of-irelands-electoral-system-to-be-delivered-under-electoral-reform-bill/">modernising this</a>.</p>
<p>The medicine being prescribed by some governments, does not fit the problem, however. Sweden’s elections are thought to be among the fairest in the world. The country made a commitment in 2021 to <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/220126-Swedens-democracy-commitments-Accessible-Final.pdf">improve voter turnout</a>. But according to the <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58533f31bebafbe99c85dc9b/t/649dee1ee6e6c50219e9fbd9/1688071716978/Electoral+Integrity+Global+Report+2023.pdf">Electoral Integrity Project data</a>, the most important areas for improvement are party donations and transparency.</p>
<p>Most worryingly, most countries have made no promises to improve elections at all. Free and fair elections are an indispensable part of democracy. This year, as half the world votes, successful leaders need to commit to work with all partners across the political spectrum and civil society to make elections fairer in the future based on the evidence.</p>
<p>So the 2024 Summit for Democracy is an opportunity for world leaders to make concrete commitments to ensure that elections really are a moment of free expression and empowerment – rather than autocratisation, control and disempowerment. They should do this through the use of evidence and collaboration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225828/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby James has previously received funding from the AHRC, ESRC, Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust, British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, Electoral Commission, Nuffield Foundation, the McDougall Trust and Unlock Democracy. His current research is funded by the Canadian SSHRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Ann Garnett receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Defence Academy Research Programme. She has previously received funding from: the British Academy, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, the NATO Public Diplomacy Division, the American Political Science Association Centennial Centre, and the Conference of Defence Associations.</span></em></p>We are living in an era of democratic backsliding. It is becoming increasingly vital to improve the quality of elections.Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East AngliaHolly Ann Garnett, Class of 1965 Professor of Leadership, Royal Military College of CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256972024-03-15T13:32:00Z2024-03-15T13:32:00ZHaiku has captured the essence of seasons for centuries – new poems contain a trace of climate change<p>A successful haiku could be described as a half-finished poem. Originating in Japan <a href="https://www.britannica.com/art/haiku">in the 17th century</a>, the haiku uses a combination of sensory language, seasonal references, a sense of contrast and a focus on the present tense to share an experience between writer and reader. </p>
<p>It relies on the reader to “finish” the poem by employing their recollections of sensations and emotions to connect to the moment described as vividly as they do their own experiences.</p>
<p>Haiku often depict moments in a particular season by describing the behaviour of animals, the weather and the appearance of plants. With a new generation of haiku poets, there’s a whole new collection of work that reflects how seasons are changing as a result of rising global temperatures.</p>
<p>Could haiku poetry written more recently contain a trace of the changes wrought by our warming climate? That’s something one of us (Jasmin) set out to investigate by analysing haiku published in English over the last 30 years. </p>
<p>First, let’s learn how to read haiku.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Do the seasons feel increasingly weird to you? You’re not alone. Climate change is distorting nature’s calendar, causing plants to flower early and animals to emerge at the wrong time.</em></p>
<p><em>This article is part of a series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/wild-seasons-152175?utm_source=InArticleTop&utm_medium=TCUK&utm_campaign=WS">Wild Seasons</a>, on how the seasons are changing – and what they may eventually look like.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>What enables this brief poetic form to achieve its resonance is its use of negative space. A haiku is a poem in two parts – a fragment (one line) and a phrase (two lines), divided by a pause (signified by a line break or punctuation). </p>
<p>Related to the concept of <a href="https://new.uniquejapan.com/ikebana/ma/"><em>ma</em></a> in Japanese visual arts, which perceives empty space in an artwork as a positive entity, the negative space in haiku is a way in to the contemplative experience of the poem.</p>
<p>The following by Japanese poet <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matsuo_Bash%C5%8D">Matsuo Basho</a> (1644-94) is the most famous haiku ever composed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>old pond –</p>
<p>a frog leaps in</p>
<p>water’s sound</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A frog in a pond surrounded by spawn." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581926/original/file-20240314-28-a0jjk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581926/original/file-20240314-28-a0jjk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581926/original/file-20240314-28-a0jjk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581926/original/file-20240314-28-a0jjk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581926/original/file-20240314-28-a0jjk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581926/original/file-20240314-28-a0jjk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581926/original/file-20240314-28-a0jjk9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frogspawn is a harbinger of spring in the UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/common-frog-frogspawn-uk-1328083865">Lesley Andrew/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To write a different account of this same event, you could say something like a frog leapt into an old pond and made a sound. But the key distinction between the two is the negative space that follows Basho’s first line. It encourages the reader to pause, breathe and contemplate the old pond before they encounter the frog leaping and the sound of the water. </p>
<p>When our minds become still, and reflective, like the old pond, we witness the action of an animal living simply according to its nature. We perceive things just as they are. The result is an experience of interconnectedness: a realisation that we are not separate from the natural world, but a part of it.</p>
<p>In the following haiku by Basho we experience the season as both a physical setting and as a metaphor for emotional experience:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>no-one walks</p>
<p>along this road but I</p>
<p>autumn evening</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tree-lined urban path in the evening." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581927/original/file-20240314-30-dpj1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581927/original/file-20240314-30-dpj1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581927/original/file-20240314-30-dpj1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581927/original/file-20240314-30-dpj1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581927/original/file-20240314-30-dpj1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581927/original/file-20240314-30-dpj1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581927/original/file-20240314-30-dpj1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Autumn’s arrival can be felt in falling leaves and earlier sunsets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/autumn-city-night-maple-trees-alley-1950393067">S_Oleg/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a world of increasing anxiety and distraction, the negative space in a haiku affords us moments of reflection and invites us into a dialogue with the rest of the natural world. </p>
<p>It requires a sensitivity on the part of the reader, but its effect is to instil an appreciation for what surrounds us. Through a meaningful, felt awareness of the seasonal cycles, the reading and writing of haiku inspires a deeper connection to our environment.</p>
<h2>How haiku is changing</h2>
<p>I spent the summer of 2022 in my home office, consuming decades of haiku journals and anthologies, trying not to leave sweaty fingerprints on their ancient covers in the unnatural 40°C heat. As that year’s researcher-in-residence for the British Haiku Society, working on a project called <a href="http://britishhaikusociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Twisting-Point.pdf">Twisting Point</a>, I was searching for tell-tale traces of climate change in the English-language haiku archives.</p>
<p>My goal was to contrast present-day haiku against older archival ones, using the differences between them to make readers sensitive to nature’s decline and to suggest how the English-language haiku form might be evolving due to climate change. </p>
<p>I was looking at 30 years’ worth of haiku. In the UK during this time flying insect populations have <a href="https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/news/2022/may/uks-flying-insects-have-declined-60-in-20-years.html">fallen by over 60%</a>, 41% of wildlife species have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/03/populations-of-uks-most-important-wildlife-have-plummeted-since-1970#:%7E:text=In%2520addition%2520to%2520the%2520214,%252C%2520habitat%2520loss%2520and%2520degradation.">decreased in abundance</a> and the frequency of heatwaves, floods and other extreme weather have <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/uk-climate-continues-to-change-in-2021#:%7E:text=The%2520latest%2520annual%2520report%2520shows,the%2520year%2520across%2520the%2520UK.">all increased</a>. More than enough change has occurred in these three decades to manifest in the archives.</p>
<p>Yet, these changes emerge in a strange fashion. It’s hard to write about nature’s losses, and writers tend to do so unconsciously. Rather than tracking population declines in concrete terms, then, the language used around certain species has altered, becoming soaked in grief.</p>
<p>For example, over 25 years numbers of curlews, a wading bird, have <a href="https://www.bto.org/our-science/projects/breeding-bird-survey/bbs-publications/bbs-reports">halved</a> in the UK. Earlier haiku described their powerful cry “lengthen[ing] the hill[s]”; a poem written in 2022 found them “calling across wintry mudflats, haunting the wind”. Similarly, since 2000, <a href="https://butterfly-conservation.org/sites/default/files/2023-01/State%20of%20UK%20Butterflies%202022%20Report.pdf">declining butterflies</a> have moved from being a “cloud” common in the background of haiku to lone survivors “pushing against time”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wading bird in shallow water with a long, slender, curved beak." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582070/original/file-20240314-26-b83fcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582070/original/file-20240314-26-b83fcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582070/original/file-20240314-26-b83fcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582070/original/file-20240314-26-b83fcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582070/original/file-20240314-26-b83fcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582070/original/file-20240314-26-b83fcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582070/original/file-20240314-26-b83fcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Curlews use their crescent beaks to probe the soft intertidal mud for worms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/curlew-blue-nature-background-bird-eurasian-393557542">Emutan/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The archetypal seasonal words used in haiku are shifting too, disrupting centuries-long traditions of meaning and emotion. As winter has been squeezed into weeks, spring arrives earlier and frosts become tardier, snowdrops have become a symptom of the changing haiku form.</p>
<p>Here is a haiku published in the 1990s in the spring seasonal category (the traditional haiku date for spring’s beginning is February 4):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>song of a greenfinch</p>
<p>a ray of sun on cold steps </p>
<p>and a few snowdrops</p>
</blockquote>
<p>By 2022, snowdrops are emerging in December in this tanka (a slightly longer poem variety) by Ruth Parker:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Omicron triumphs</p>
<p>and sends Christmas packing – but in the garden</p>
<p>the delicate white hope</p>
<p>of snowdrops</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Small white flowers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581929/original/file-20240314-24-rorauy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581929/original/file-20240314-24-rorauy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581929/original/file-20240314-24-rorauy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581929/original/file-20240314-24-rorauy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581929/original/file-20240314-24-rorauy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581929/original/file-20240314-24-rorauy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581929/original/file-20240314-24-rorauy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Snowdrops are flowering earlier as the climate warms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/snowdrop-common-galanthus-nivalis-flowers-1319256830">Daniel Chetroni/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I was struck by how few haiku seemed to address climate change. Twisting Point became my call to arms for haiku writers. Haiku are about intense moments of perception, in which <a href="http://britishhaikusociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Twisting-Point.pdf">“the vast is perceived in one thing”</a>. But in addressing climate change so little, are English-language haiku really depicting “the vast”?</p>
<p>Since 2022 the issue has come to the fore, with The Guardian describing how Japanese haiku writers are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/14/lost-to-the-climate-crisis-japan-haiku-poets">“lost for words”</a> in the face of climate change. Meanwhile, Twisting Point is to be <a href="https://poetrysociety.org.nz/affiliates/haiku-nz/haiku-poems-articles/">republished in a journal</a> of the New Zealand Poetry Society. The call to haiku arms is growing: the vast climate crisis is upon us, and we should write about it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225697/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jasmin Kirkbride is a member of the British Haiku Society, the Association for the Study of Literature and the Environment (ASLE-UKI) and the Haiku Foundation Registry. She is also a member of the Society of Authors and Mensa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Chambers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Haiku poetry chart flowers appearing earlier and species retreating to the margins, marking climate change.Jasmin Kirkbride, Lecturer in Publishing, University of East AngliaPaul Chambers, PhD Candidate in Creative Writing, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256362024-03-13T13:11:07Z2024-03-13T13:11:07ZA próxima pandemia já chegou para os animais<p>Sou uma bióloga conservacionista que estuda doenças infecciosas emergentes. Quando as pessoas me perguntam qual será a próxima pandemia, costumo dizer que já estamos no meio de uma, mas que ela está afetando muitas espécies além da nossa.</p>
<p>Estou me referindo à cepa altamente patogênica da influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), também conhecida como gripe aviária, que matou milhões de aves e um número desconhecido de mamíferos, particularmente nos últimos três anos. </p>
<p>Essa cepa surgiu em gansos domésticos na China em 1997 e rapidamente passou para os seres humanos no Sudeste da Ásia, com uma taxa de mortalidade de <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634780/">cerca de 40-50%</a>. Meu grupo de pesquisa <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634780/">encontrou o vírus</a> quando ele matou um mamífero, um <a href="https://svw.vn/owstons-civet/">civeta de palmeira de Owston</a> (<em>Chrotogale owstoni</em>, uma espécie de carnívoro parecida com um gato selvagem), ameaçado de extinção, em um programa de reprodução em cativeiro no Parque Nacional Cuc Phuong, no Vietnã, em 2005.</p>
<p>Nunca foi confirmado como esses animais contraíram a gripe aviária. Sua dieta é composta principalmente de minhocas, portanto, eles não foram infectados pela ingestão de aves doentes, como muitos tigres em cativeiro na região.</p>
<p>Essa descoberta nos levou a reunir todos os relatos confirmados de infecção fatal por gripe aviária para avaliar o quão ampla é a ameaça que esse vírus pode representar para a vida selvagem.</p>
<p>Foi assim que um vírus recém-descoberto em aves domésticas chinesas passou a ameaçar grande parte da biodiversidade do mundo.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Uma pessoa de macacão branco opera uma empilhadeira carregando perus mortos." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">O H5N1 se originou em uma granja chinesa de aves em 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/western-negev-israel-march-18-2006-111241157">ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Os primeiros sinais</h2>
<p>Até dezembro de 2005, a maioria das infecções confirmadas havia sido encontrada em alguns zoológicos e centros de resgate de animais na Tailândia e no Camboja. Nossa análise em 2006 mostrou que quase metade (48%) de todos os diferentes grupos de aves (conhecidos pelos taxonomistas como “ordens”) tinha uma espécie na qual uma infecção fatal de gripe aviária havia sido relatada. Essas 13 ordens compreendem 84% de todas as espécies de aves. </p>
<p>Há 20 anos, concluímos que as cepas de H5N1 em circulação provavelmente eram altamente patogênicas para todas as ordens de aves. Mostramos também que a lista de espécies infectadas confirmadas incluía aquelas que estavam globalmente ameaçadas e que habitats importantes, como o delta do Rio Mekong, no Vietnã, ficavam próximos aos surtos de aves relatados.</p>
<p>Os mamíferos conhecidos por serem suscetíveis à gripe aviária no início dos anos 2000 incluíam primatas, roedores, porcos e coelhos. Foi relatado que grandes carnívoros, como tigres-de-bengala e leopardos-nebulosos, foram mortos, bem como gatos domésticos.</p>
<p>Nosso estudo de 2006 mostrou a facilidade com que esse vírus cruzou as barreiras entre espécies e sugeriu que ele poderia um dia produzir uma ameaça em escala pandêmica à biodiversidade global.</p>
<p>Infelizmente, nossos alertas estavam corretos.</p>
<h2>Uma doença itinerante</h2>
<p>Duas décadas depois, a gripe aviária está matando espécies do <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/02/polar-bear-dies-from-bird-flu-age-of-extinction">alto Ártico</a> à <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-reaches-antarcticas-mainland">Antártica continental</a>.</p>
<p>Nos últimos dois anos, a gripe aviária se espalhou rapidamente pela Europa e se infiltrou nas Américas do Norte e do Sul, matando milhões de aves domésticas e uma variedade de espécies de aves e mamíferos. <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article">Um artigo recente</a> constatou que 26 países relataram pelo menos 48 espécies de mamíferos que morreram devido ao vírus desde 2020, quando começou o último aumento de infecções relatadas.</p>
<p>Nem mesmo o oceano está a salvo. Desde 2020, 13 espécies de mamíferos aquáticos sucumbiram, incluindo leões-marinhos, botos e golfinhos americanos, muitas vezes morrendo aos milhares na América do Sul. Uma grande variedade de mamíferos predadores e necrófagos que vivem em terra agora também são confirmados como suscetíveis, incluindo leões da montanha, linces, ursos marrons, negros e polares.</p>
<p>Só o Reino Unido <a href="https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/seabird-surveys-project-report">perdeu mais de 75%</a> de seus grandes mandriões e registrou um declínio de 25% nos gansos-patola do norte (também conhecidos como atobá-boreal). Os declínios recentes nas populações de andorinhas-do-mar-de-sanduíche (35%) e das andorinhas-do-mar-comuns (42%) também foram <a href="https://maryannsteggles.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bird-flu-causing-'catastrophic-fall-in-UK-seabird-numbers-conservationists-warn-Bird-flu-The-G.pdf">em grande parte causados pelo vírus</a>. </p>
<p>Os cientistas ainda não conseguiram <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article">sequenciar completamente</a> o vírus em todas as espécies afetadas. A pesquisa e a vigilância sanitária contínua podem nos dizer o quão adaptável ele se tornará e se poderá atingir ainda mais espécies. Sabemos que ele já pode infectar humanos - mas uma ou mais mutações genéticas podem torná-lo ainda mais infeccioso.</p>
<h2>Na encruzilhada</h2>
<p>Entre 1º de janeiro de 2003 e 21 de dezembro de 2023, foram registrados 882 casos de infecção humana pelo vírus H5N1 em 23 países, dos quais <a href="https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/influenza/human-animal-interface-risk-assessments/influenza-at-the-human-animal-interface-summary-and-assessment--from-4-october-to-1-november-2023.pdf?sfvrsn=6c67e7df_2&download=true">461 (52%) foram fatais</a>.</p>
<p>Desses casos fatais, mais da metade ocorreu no Vietnã, China, Camboja e Laos. As transmissões do vírus de aves para humanos foram registradas pela primeira vez no Camboja em dezembro de 2003. Casos intermitentes foram registrados até 2014, seguidos por um intervalo até 2023, resultando em 41 mortes em 64 casos. O subtipo do vírus H5N1 responsável foi detectado em aves domésticas no Camboja desde 2014. No início dos anos 2000, o vírus H5N1 que circulava tinha uma alta taxa de mortalidade entre seres humanos. Portanto, é preocupante que agora estejamos começando a ver pessoas morrendo após o contato com aves novamente.</p>
<p>Não são apenas os subtipos H5 da gripe aviária que preocupam os seres humanos. O vírus H10N1 foi originalmente isolado de aves selvagens na Coreia do Sul, mas também foi relatado em amostras da China e da Mongólia.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1256090/full">Pesquisas recentes</a> descobriram que esses subtipos específicos de vírus podem ser capazes de passar para os seres humanos depois de terem sido considerados patogênicos em camundongos de laboratório e furões. A primeira pessoa confirmada como infectada pelo H10N5 <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON504">morreu</a> na China em 27 de janeiro de 2024, mas esse paciente também estava sofrendo de gripe sazonal (H3N2). Ele havia sido exposto a aves domésticas vivas que também testaram positivo para H10N5.</p>
<p>Espécies ameaçadas de extinção estão entre as que morreram devido à gripe aviária nos últimos três anos. As primeiras mortes causadas pelo vírus na Antártica continental acabaram de ser <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-reaches-antarcticas-mainland">confirmadas em mandriões</a>, destacando uma ameaça iminente às colônias de pinguins, cujos ovos e filhotes são predados pelos mandriões. Pinguins de Humboldt também já foram <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/30/science/birds-flu-antarctica.html">mortos pelo vírus</a> no Chile.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Uma colônia de pinguins-rei." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Colônias remotas de pinguins já estão ameaçadas pelas mudanças climáticas e, agora, pelo vírus da gripe aviária.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/king-penguin-colony-103683413">AndreAnita/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Como podemos conter esse tsunami de H5N1 e outras gripes aviárias? Reformular completamente a produção de aves em escala global. Tornar as granjas autossuficientes na criação de ovos e pintinhos, em vez de exportá-los internacionalmente. A tendência de criação de megagranjas com mais de um milhão de aves deve ser interrompida imediatamente. </p>
<p>Para evitar os piores impactos deste vírus precisamos revisitar sua origem principal: as incubadoras de granjas de criação intensiva de aves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Bell não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.</span></em></p>A gripe aviária está dizimando espécies já ameaçadas pelas mudanças climáticas e pela perda de seus habitatsDiana Bell, Professor of Conservation Biology, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223062024-03-11T17:18:48Z2024-03-11T17:18:48ZThe next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife<p>I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.</p>
<p>I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years. </p>
<p>This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634780/">around 40-50%</a>. My research group <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634780/">encountered the virus</a> when it killed a mammal, an endangered <a href="https://svw.vn/owstons-civet/">Owston’s palm civet</a>, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.</p>
<p>How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.</p>
<p>This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.</p>
<p>This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person in white overalls operates a forklift carrying dead turkeys." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580987/original/file-20240311-22-gzginr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/western-negev-israel-march-18-2006-111241157">ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The first signs</h2>
<p>Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species. </p>
<p>We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.</p>
<p>Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.</p>
<p>Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.</p>
<h2>A roving sickness</h2>
<p>Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/02/polar-bear-dies-from-bird-flu-age-of-extinction">the high Arctic</a> to <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-reaches-antarcticas-mainland">mainland Antarctica</a>.</p>
<p>In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article">A recent paper</a> found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.</p>
<p>Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.</p>
<p>The UK alone has <a href="https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/seabird-surveys-project-report">lost over 75%</a> of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also <a href="https://maryannsteggles.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bird-flu-causing-%E2%80%98catastrophic-fall-in-UK-seabird-numbers-conservationists-warn-Bird-flu-The-G.pdf">largely driven by the virus</a>. </p>
<p>Scientists haven’t managed to <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article">completely sequence</a> the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.</p>
<h2>At the crossroads</h2>
<p>Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which <a href="https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/influenza/human-animal-interface-risk-assessments/influenza-at-the-human-animal-interface-summary-and-assessment--from-4-october-to-1-november-2023.pdf?sfvrsn=6c67e7df_2&download=true">461 (52%) were fatal</a>.</p>
<p>Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.</p>
<p>It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1256090/full">Recent research</a> found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON504">died</a> in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.</p>
<p>Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-reaches-antarcticas-mainland">confirmed in skuas</a>, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/30/science/birds-flu-antarctica.html">killed by the virus</a> in Chile.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A colony of king penguins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580982/original/file-20240311-26-mmf7j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/king-penguin-colony-103683413">AndreAnita/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks. </p>
<p>To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.Diana Bell, Professor of Conservation Biology, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247242024-03-07T13:03:57Z2024-03-07T13:03:57ZAn Oscar win for Lily Gladstone would be a huge step for Native Americans in an industry that has reduced them to stereotypes<p>Killers of the Flower Moon is an unsettling and powerful historical epic. For her quiet but captivating performance as Mollie Burkhart, Lily Gladstone has rightly been nominated for best actress at the Academy Awards – making her the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Culture/lily-gladstone-oscars-history-1st-native-american-nominated-best-actress/story?id=106596566#:%7E:text=Gladstone%20is%20up%20for%20her,Killers%20of%20the%20Flower%20Moon.%22&text=Lily%20Gladstone%20has%20made%20history,be%20nominated%20for%20best%20actress.">first Native American woman</a> to compete in this category. </p>
<p>Gladstone has already won both the Golden Globe and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYSIysa2FTc&ab_channel=Netflix">Screen Actors Guild award</a> for best female actor. In her <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvdCkh1SDfQ&ab_channel=GoldenGlobes">acceptance speech</a> at the Golden Globes, Gladstone made it very clear that her success is to be shared with all Native Americans. She opened by introducing herself in her Blackfeet language, before declaring:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is an historic win. This is for every little rez [reservation] kid, every little urban kid, every little Native kid out there who has a dream, who is seeing themselves represented and our stories told — by ourselves, in our own words.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Killers of the Flower Moon, which is nominated for ten Oscars, is not an easy watch. The film, based on David Grann’s scrupulously researched <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.co.uk/books/Killers-of-the-Flower-Moon/David-Grann/9781398513341">non-fiction book</a> of the same name, recounts a bloody episode (one of many) in America’s history involving the brutal killing of Native Americans. </p>
<p>Focusing on the romance and marriage between Mollie Kyle and Ernest Burkhart (Leonardo DiCaprio), the film tells the story of how more than 60 Osages, from a tribe of Native Americans in Oklahoma, were brutally murdered for their land and oil wealth by white interlopers. Lasting from the 1910s to the 1930s, this period was known as the Osage Reign of Terror. It is a violent tale of betrayal and greed that sees the now-married Mollie Burkhart fighting to save her people and get justice for their killings. </p>
<p>Throughout the film, Gladstone portrays her as quietly dignified – communicating as much with her expressive eyes and slight movements of her mouth as with her words.</p>
<p>Off stage, in the run-up to the Academy Awards, Gladstone’s powerful advocacy for all Native Americans has demonstrated that “Indians” are not just a homogeneous historical group in period films. Winning the Oscar would be a huge moment not only for Native Americans but for the film industry too. </p>
<h2>Native histories past and present</h2>
<p>Gladstone grew up on the Blackfeet reservation in Montana. The land had been assigned to this once-powerful Plains warrior tribe by a <a href="https://www.umt.edu/this-is-montana/columns/stories/blackfeet.php#:%7E:text=In%201888%2C%20left%20with%20no,present%2Dday%20Glacier%20National%20Park.">US treaty</a> in 1888. Much smaller than the Blackfeet’s traditional homelands, the reservation signaled the tribe’s diminished economic and political power. By then, the buffalo that had been the economic and cultural foundation of Blackfeet society had been almost totally exterminated. </p>
<p>Like the Blackfeet, the Osage are also a Plains tribe. In 1872, white encroachments on their lands forced them to move from Kansas to a reservation in Indian Territory (which became part of the new Oklahoma state in 1907). But unusually, the Osage tribe bought their reservation – so when oil was discovered, tribal members owned the rights and the riches. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lvdCkh1SDfQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>More historical context in the film would have helped place this tragic story in its broader frame – in particular, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/04/06/600136534/largely-forgotten-osage-murders-reveal-a-conspiracy-against-wealthy-native-ameri">complicity of the US government in the Osage murders</a>. By designating them individually as legally incompetent and in need of white guardians to control their financial affairs, they were made vulnerable to robbery and murder.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/lily-gladstone-native-audience-killers-of-the-flower-moon-1235643824/">Gladstone says</a> she had heard about the Osage’s extraordinary oil wealth from her father. In the 1920s, they were the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1921/06/25/archives/osage-are-richest-people-greatest-per-capita-wealth-in-world.html">richest people per capita in the world</a>. But she was only hazily aware of the killings. </p>
<p>Now, both well-informed and mindful of these crimes and their legacies, Gladstone insists that her audiences must “never forget this story is recent history with a lasting impact on breathing, feeling people today. It belongs to them, and we all have so much to learn from it.” </p>
<h2>The Osage people at the heart of the film</h2>
<p>Two white men, Ernest Burkhart and his uncle, Bill Hale (Robert De Niro), dominate the action, and we are left in no doubt about their escalating crimes. But it is the power of Gladstone’s acting that constantly pulls the focus towards Mollie and her family, and so places the Osage people at the heart of the film. </p>
<p>Cinema has often depicted mythical Native Americans as spirit guides, aggressive savages or, tragically, on their way to extinction to make way for “civilisation”. But this film tells a true historical story. </p>
<p>Osage people not only acted many of the parts, they also played a vital role in how the <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/martin-scorsese-lily-gladstone-making-killers-of-the-flower-moon-1235715287/">film developed</a>. The contribution of living Osages changed the story told in Grann’s book; the central role he had given the FBI became minor as their stories were incorporated into the narrative, and then the film script.</p>
<p>The audience gets to hear the Osage language and see Osage hairstyles, food, cultural traditions and clothes. For example, Mollie’s wedding coat and feathered hat is from the Smithsonian’s holdings and was worn by an <a href="https://www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/film-tv/a45511003/killers-of-the-flower-moon-costume-designer-interview/">Osage bride in the 1920s</a>.</p>
<p>“I mean, the film is so remarkable because of how remarkable Osage people are,” <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/lily-gladstone-references-super-bowl-220040520.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANWb52uUzILGhp9Gr6_Q4Ps3uAQEJtTmaSa1RnCewf4H66XofJq9ehTgfmYl2Le8Z9YbbMw4-BoWTTCdhVhiPKwaF2_A2vloTN8Ny4g_lCclnPAnfjqc_I4QpbGCuUkTZxXVoxF_2R_AtuXGJYCVYyxycmYUyxjQFOUuCFnSMBrd">Gladstone observed</a>, “and how much they had to say about the making of it.”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EP34Yoxs3FQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Gladstone’s recent successes in her role as Mollie Burkhart has enabled her to use the podium to advocate for Native representation. This includes publicly addressing culturally sensitive issues, including the name of Super Bowl winners <a href="https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/lily-gladstone-chiefs-tomahawk-chop-native-americans-1235909668/">the Kansas City Chiefs</a>, which add to the misrepresentation of Native Americans. She has done so while also showing off stunning Native-created fashion and jewellery, highlighting their living and beautiful cultures.</p>
<p>If Gladstone is awarded the Oscar for best actress on March 10, it will not only be very well-deserved but a highly symbolic moment. And a massive shout of joy and exuberance will echo across the whole of Indian Country.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/something-good-156">Sign up here</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Fear-Segal receives funding from the AHRC for Research Project Beyond The Spectacle: Native North American Presence in Britain. </span></em></p>Gladstone has used her platform in the run-up to this year’s awards season to highlight issues affecting Native American communities in America today.Jacqueline Fear-Segal, Emeritus Professor in the School of Art, Media and American Studies, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241172024-02-28T15:33:06Z2024-02-28T15:33:06ZClimat : nos systèmes alimentaires peuvent devenir plus efficaces, plus résilients et plus justes<p>À Paris, l’édition 2024 du <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/salon-de-lagriculture-25013">Salon de l’Agriculture</a> se déroule dans un contexte particulier, entre <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-fnsea-syndicat-radical-derriere-le-mal-etre-des-agriculteurs-des-tensions-plus-profondes-222438">grogne des syndicats agricoles</a> et <a href="https://theconversation.com/colere-des-agriculteurs-ce-qui-etait-coherent-et-cohesif-est-devenu-explosif-222066">colère des agriculteurs</a>.</p>
<p>Pendant ce temps, le réchauffement planétaire continue de s’accentuer, et expose la production agricole à une augmentation des dommages dus à ses conséquences : intensification des <a href="https://theconversation.com/des-temperatures-extremes-statistiquement-impossibles-quelles-sont-les-regions-les-plus-a-risque-210342">vagues de chaleurs</a>, sécheresses, <a href="https://theconversation.com/changement-climatique-et-pluies-extremes-ce-que-dit-la-science-103660">pluies extrêmes</a>…</p>
<p>Comment y faire face ? Dans un <a href="https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/publications/accelerer-la-transition-climatique-avec-un-systeme-alimentaire-bas-carbone-resilient-et-juste/">récent rapport du Haut conseil pour le climat</a>, nous montrons qu’il est possible d’accélérer la réduction des émissions de l’alimentation et de la production agricole, en protégeant l’avenir des agriculteurs et des consommateurs, notamment les plus vulnérables. Autrement dit, un cercle plus vertueux est possible.</p>
<h2>L’agriculture en première ligne des défis climatiques</h2>
<p>Chaque dixième de degré compte et expose la production agricole à une augmentation des dommages dus aux <a href="https://theconversation.com/les-risques-de-temperatures-extremes-en-europe-de-louest-sont-sous-estimes-213015">événements météorologiques extrêmes</a>.</p>
<p>On les observe déjà en France, à travers l’intensification des <a href="https://theconversation.com/secheresse-2022-un-manque-de-pluies-presque-ordinaire-aux-effets-exceptionnels-191323">sécheresses</a> à l’origine de <a href="https://theconversation.com/changement-climatique-et-agriculture-les-economistes-alertent-sur-la-necessite-dintensifier-les-efforts-dadaptation-en-afrique-subsaharienne-218184">baisses de rendements</a> pour les cultures (dont le blé, le maïs, et les fourrages). D’autant plus que les vagues de chaleur induisent un <a href="https://theconversation.com/chaleur-et-humidite-leurs-effets-sur-notre-corps-se-font-sentir-plus-tot-que-prevu-212041">stress thermique</a> et hydrique néfastes tant pour les cultures que pour les animaux.</p>
<p>[<em>Plus de 85 000 lecteurs font confiance aux newsletters de The Conversation pour mieux comprendre les grands enjeux du monde</em>. <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=france&region=fr">Abonnez-vous aujourd’hui</a>]</p>
<p>Le réchauffement rend également les semis et les récoltes plus précoces, ce qui les expose davantage aux gelées printanières ainsi qu’à certaines maladies, par exemple les <a href="https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/laccave-10-ans-recherche-partenariat-ladaptation-viticulture-au-changement-climatique">maladies cryptogamiques (liées au développement de champignons) dans les vignobles</a>. De la même façon, plusieurs maladies touchant les animaux d’élevage <a href="https://www.anses.fr/fr/content/maladie-hemorragique-epizootique">risquent de se développer à cause du réchauffement</a>.</p>
<p>Les inondations, plus fréquentes du fait de l’élévation des températures, entraînent elles aussi de lourds dégâts, tant pour pour les sols, les cultures que le matériel agricole.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578258/original/file-20240227-26-3stevc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578258/original/file-20240227-26-3stevc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578258/original/file-20240227-26-3stevc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578258/original/file-20240227-26-3stevc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578258/original/file-20240227-26-3stevc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578258/original/file-20240227-26-3stevc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578258/original/file-20240227-26-3stevc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hersage sur un terrain inondé.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Irri Photos/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Les dommages liés au changement climatique représentent déjà des surcoûts pour les agriculteurs et les <a href="https://theconversation.com/risques-climatiques-les-tarifs-des-assurances-sont-ils-condamnes-a-augmenter-191216">assureurs</a> qui ont des <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">répercussions sur les prix et la sécurité de l’approvisionnement alimentaire</a>.</p>
<p>Et ce n’est que le début : les conséquences du changement climatique sur les rendements des cultures et de l’élevage continueront de s’amplifier avec chaque incrément de réchauffement supplémentaire. Pour y faire face, il convient de combiner plusieurs transformations pour renforcer la résilience du système alimentaire et réduire son <a href="https://theconversation.com/une-alimentation-bonne-pour-moi-et-la-planete-tout-depend-de-la-ou-jhabite-153330">empreinte carbone</a>.</p>
<h2>Des systèmes alimentaires à transformer</h2>
<p>Car pour l’heure, l’adaptation des activités agricoles aux effets négatifs du changement climatique est surtout réactive. Elle intervient en réponse à des sécheresses ou des inondations, mais n’anticipe pas les transformations des systèmes agricoles et alimentaires qui seront nécessaires au cours des prochaines décennies du fait de la hausse de la température planétaire. Par exemple, le déplacement des aires de production agroclimatiques et les conséquences de l’accélération de la montée du niveau de la mer.</p>
<p>Pour autant, les interventions pour répondre au changement climatique ne doivent pas cibler seulement l’agriculture, mais l’ensemble du système alimentaire. En effet, l’alimentation représente <a href="https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/lempreinte-carbone-de-la-france-de-1995-2022">22 % de l’empreinte carbone des Français</a>, et cette empreinte carbone ne diminue <a href="https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/publications/accelerer-la-transition-climatique-avec-un-systeme-alimentaire-bas-carbone-resilient-et-juste/">qu’insuffisamment au regard des objectifs climatiques</a>.</p>
<p>Bien que l’agriculture en France, comme dans les autres pays, représente <a href="https://librairie.ademe.fr/consommer-autrement/779-empreinte-energetique-et-carbone-de-l-alimentation-en-france.html">60 % de cette empreinte carbone</a>, d’autres activités y contribuent de manière significative principalement par des émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> :</p>
<ul>
<li><p>la transformation des aliments est à l’origine de 6 à 18 % des émissions <a href="https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/lempreinte-carbone-de-la-france-de-1995-2022">selon les méthodes</a>,</p></li>
<li><p>le commerce et la restauration de 12 %,</p></li>
<li><p>le transport notamment routier de 6 à 14 %.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578263/original/file-20240227-26-dh7oex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578263/original/file-20240227-26-dh7oex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578263/original/file-20240227-26-dh7oex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578263/original/file-20240227-26-dh7oex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578263/original/file-20240227-26-dh7oex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578263/original/file-20240227-26-dh7oex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578263/original/file-20240227-26-dh7oex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Les bovins sont de grands émetteurs de méthane, un gaz à effet de serre notoire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pour limiter l’escalade des impacts climatiques, il est indispensable d’atteindre l’objectif de zéro émission nette de CO<sub>2</sub> d’ici 2050 tous secteurs confondus.</p>
<p>Et cela, tout en réduisant fortement les émissions des autres gaz à effet de serre, comme le méthane, émis par l’élevage et la riziculture et le protoxyde d’azote émis par les sols fertilisés.</p>
<p>Cela implique de réduire l’ensemble des émissions du système alimentaire, dont l’agriculture, tout en renforçant le <a href="https://theconversation.com/pour-sauver-nos-systemes-alimentaires-restaurer-nos-sols-en-sequestrant-le-carbone-212820">stockage de carbone dans les sols</a> et dans la <a href="https://theconversation.com/mesurer-linvisible-la-dure-tache-de-calculer-le-stock-et-le-flux-de-carbone-dune-foret-212810">biomasse agroforestière</a>.</p>
<h2>Des freins systémiques à surpasser</h2>
<p>Le problème, c’est que la structure et le fonctionnement du système alimentaire actuel freinent l’adoption de pratiques agricoles et alimentaires bas carbone. Cela limite aussi la possibilité de changements transformationnels, tant du côté agricole que du côté de l’évolution de l’alimentation des consommateurs.</p>
<p>D’un côté, la transformation des pratiques agricoles se heurte aux <a href="https://www.pressesdesciencespo.fr/fr/book/?GCOI=27246100979080">difficultés économiques des agriculteurs</a> (pertes de production, inégalités et faiblesse des revenus de l’agriculture) et aux besoins de transferts de compétences (formation, accompagnement technique).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/agriculture-pourquoi-la-bio-marque-t-elle-le-pas-en-france-207510">Agriculture : pourquoi la bio marque-t-elle le pas en France ?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>De l’autre, les changements de régimes alimentaires sont fortement contraints par les environnements alimentaires proposés aux consommateurs, puisque les offres bas-carbone (par exemple, riches en protéines végétales) sont peu nombreuses, <a href="https://theconversation.com/affichage-environnemental-bio-ou-pas-comment-evaluer-limpact-ecologique-des-aliments-216505">peu visibles</a> et peu accessibles économiquement. Cela demande donc des efforts concertés des filières agricoles, des industries agroalimentaires et de la distribution.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578564/original/file-20240228-22-8fk536.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578564/original/file-20240228-22-8fk536.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578564/original/file-20240228-22-8fk536.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578564/original/file-20240228-22-8fk536.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578564/original/file-20240228-22-8fk536.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578564/original/file-20240228-22-8fk536.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578564/original/file-20240228-22-8fk536.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Certains produits importés, comme la viande, contribuent fortement à ce qu’on appelle la déforestation importée.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ted Eytan/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>En outre, une partie de cette offre alimentaire concerne des produits animaux importés, qui contribuent fortement à l’empreinte carbone de l’alimentation française, notamment via la <a href="https://theconversation.com/lutte-contre-la-deforestation-importee-en-europe-quelles-consequences-pour-des-millions-dafricains-187952">déforestation importée</a>.</p>
<p>Pour faciliter les changements, il est important de mobiliser l’ensemble du système alimentaire, des agriculteurs aux consommateurs, en passant aussi par l’agrofourniture, le conseil agricole, la formation, les coopératives, la transformation, la distribution et la restauration.</p>
<p>Or, les nombreuses interdépendances entre les maillons du système alimentaire, mais aussi la situation socio-économique du secteur (<a href="https://theconversation.com/comment-la-grande-distribution-sadapte-aux-tensions-sur-le-pouvoir-dachat-197146">inflation alimentaire</a>) et son organisation institutionnelle constituent d’importants freins au changement.</p>
<p>Cela concerne notamment les formes inégales du partage de la valeur au sein des filières, la concurrence internationale, la faiblesse des revenus agricoles, la structuration autour d’un nombre restreint de cultures et d’animaux et la concentration des acteurs de l’aval (industries agroalimentaires, distribution).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/les-producteurs-principaux-perdants-de-la-repartition-des-gains-de-productivite-de-lagriculture-depuis-1959-222780">Les producteurs, principaux perdants de la répartition des gains de productivité de l’agriculture depuis 1959</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Des options existent pourtant pour s’adapter au changement climatique tout en réduisant les gaz à effet de serre. Par exemple, la diversification des cultures permet de limiter les dommages en cas de sécheresse et cette diversification permet d’introduire des <a href="https://theconversation.com/les-legumineuses-pilier-pour-des-systemes-agroalimentaires-plus-durables-en-europe-193186">légumineuses</a> (lentilles, pois…) qui <a href="https://theconversation.com/cultiver-des-legumineuses-pour-utiliser-moins-dengrais-mineraux-et-nourrir-la-planete-197256">ne nécessitent pas d’engrais azotés</a> (moins de gaz à effet de serre émis) et qui renforcent l’offre de protéines végétales.</p>
<p>Toutefois, cette diversification nécessite le développement de <a href="https://theconversation.com/legumineuses-insectes-nouvelles-cultures-les-scientifiques-au-defi-des-futurs-systemes-alimentaires-184512">nouvelles filières végétales</a>, avec leurs silos et leurs usines de transformation. Elle implique aussi des changements en aval de la production pour mieux transformer et valoriser ces produits dans l’offre en matière d’alimentation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/les-legumineuses-bonnes-pour-notre-sante-et-celle-de-la-planete-216845">Les légumineuses : bonnes pour notre santé et celle de la planète</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Un autre obstacle concerne la forte spécialisation des bassins de production. Dans les régions spécialisées en grandes cultures, les sols ne reçoivent pas assez d’azote organique issu de l’élevage et consomment beaucoup d’engrais de synthèse, alors que dans d’autres régions les élevages peinent à épandre leurs excédents d’azote organique. Ces déséquilibres régionaux contribuent aux pertes d’azote et aux émissions de <a href="https://theconversation.com/agroforesterie-intrants-labour-comment-ameliorer-le-bilan-carbone-de-lagriculture-165403">protoxyde d’azote, un puissant gaz à effet de serre</a>.</p>
<p>Enfin, le changement climatique comme les politiques de transition risquent de faire augmenter encore le <a href="https://www.i4ce.org/publication/alimentation-durable-budget-consommateurs-climat/">coût de l’alimentation</a> et d’accroître le risque de <a href="https://theconversation.com/insecurite-alimentaire-au-dela-du-prix-des-aliments-il-faut-sattaquer-aux-obstacles-systemiques-202933">précarité alimentaire</a>.</p>
<p>Par conséquent, on ne peut réduire les émissions de l’alimentation et de la production agricole sans protéger agriculteurs et consommateurs. Cela nécessite des mesures qui portent sur l’ensemble du système alimentaire dans un esprit de transition juste.</p>
<h2>Des solutions agroécologiques à portée de main</h2>
<p>Ces freins et verrous pourraient pourtant être levés. Il faudrait notamment :</p>
<ul>
<li><p>revaloriser les revenus des agriculteurs et des éleveurs en difficulté pour soutenir et accompagner leurs changements de pratiques,</p></li>
<li><p>réorienter les dispositifs de soutien vers un cap à long terme de résilience au changement climatique, et de baisse des émissions nettes de gaz à effet de serre,</p></li>
<li><p>mobiliser les acteurs de la transformation, du stockage, du transport, de la distribution et de la restauration, afin de maîtriser l’empreinte carbone de l’alimentation.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>De nombreuses options pour l’atténuation et l’adaptation au changement climatique peuvent être déployées de manière élargie dans toutes les composantes du système alimentaire. Elles concernent :</p>
<ul>
<li><p>la gestion des terres (<a href="https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/stocker-4-1-000-carbone-sols-potentiel-france">stockage de carbone dans les sols</a>),</p></li>
<li><p>l’<a href="https://www.cirad.fr/les-actualites-du-cirad/actualites/plus-vieux/agroforesterie-et-coefficients-carbone-du-giec">agroforesterie</a>,</p></li>
<li><p>les productions végétales (gestion adaptative de l’eau, <a href="https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/ble-tendre-secheresse-nouvelles-varietes-venir">tolérance à la sécheresse et à la chaleur</a>, <a href="https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/quelle-contribution-lagriculture-francaise-reduction-emissions-gaz-effet-serre">réduction des pertes d’azote et de la fertilisation minérale</a>,</p></li>
<li><p>et les productions animales (<a href="https://gabi.jouy.hub.inrae.fr/actualites/etude-de-l-adaptation-des-bovins-au-changement-climatique">tolérance à la chaleur</a>, santé animale, additifs alimentaires et <a href="https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/methane-2030-demarche-collective-francaise-focalisee-methane-enterique">sélection pour réduire les émissions de méthane</a>).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Ces options peuvent être déployées dans le cadre de la transition <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/agro-ecologie-33625">agroécologique</a> afin de mobiliser les <a href="https://www.inrae.fr/dossiers/lagriculture-va-t-elle-manquer-deau/lagroecologie-source-solutions">régulations écologiques</a> (conservation des sols, renforcement de l’agrobiodiversité, complémentarités agriculture-élevage) au bénéfice de la production agricole, tout en bénéficiant <a href="https://www.inrae.fr/evenements/lancement-pepr-agroecologie-numerique">d’approches technologiques</a> (numérique, services climatiques)</p>
<p>La transformation des environnements alimentaires (l’environnement des consommateurs qui détermine les choix possibles), notamment la substitution de protéines animales par des protéines végétales, et la réduction du gaspillage à chaque étape sont nécessaires.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voici-trois-bonnes-raisons-de-consommer-des-proteines-dorigine-vegetale-176097">Voici trois bonnes raisons de consommer des protéines d’origine végétale</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ces actions combinées auraient des effets vertueux, en permettant de diminuer la consommation de produits alimentaires intensifs en émissions, de réduire l’empreinte carbone de la production agricole tout en évitant l’importation de produits alimentaires avec des effets d’augmentation de l’empreinte carbone importée.</p>
<p>Enfin, une importante difficulté tient au fait que les politiques agricoles et alimentaires sont aujourd’hui peu mobilisées en appui aux politiques climatiques.</p>
<h2>Un besoin de politiques plus engagées</h2>
<p>Il est clair que seule une coordination des politiques concernant l’agriculture, l’alimentation, la santé publique, le climat, la qualité de l’eau et de l’air, et la biodiversité, permettra de mener ces transformations.</p>
<p>Celles-ci doivent être menées tout en protégeant les agriculteurs français d’une forte augmentation des dommages causés par le changement climatique, en minimisant les coûts de la transition et en réduisant les risques économiques pour les acteurs du système alimentaire les plus vulnérables. Enfin, elles doivent garantir l’accès à une alimentation durable et saine pour tous les consommateurs.</p>
<p>Avec une vision partagée de l’agriculture et de l’alimentation bas carbone, adaptée au climat de demain, la France pourrait porter la réforme de la Politique agricole commune de l’Union européenne de 2028. Elle pourrait également, grâce à des lois d’orientation nationale, permettre la réduction des émissions du secteur agricole par au moins un facteur deux d’ici à 2050, <a href="https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/publications/accelerer-la-transition-climatique-avec-un-systeme-alimentaire-bas-carbone-resilient-et-juste/">comme le montre notre rapport</a>. De quoi se rapprocher le plus possible de la neutralité carbone pour le secteur agricole, en augmentant fortement le stockage de carbone dans les sols agricoles et dans la biomasse.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/que-sont-les-puits-de-carbone-et-comment-peuvent-ils-contribuer-a-la-neutralite-carbone-en-france-201420">Que sont les « puits de carbone » et comment peuvent-ils contribuer à la neutralité carbone en France ?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ceci réduirait la dépendance aux <a href="https://www.academie-sciences.fr/fr/Communiques-de-presse/communique-de-presse-foret-et-changement-climatique-menace-sur-le-puits-forestier-francais.html">puits de carbone forestiers</a>
qui sont fragilisés par le changement climatique, et à la capture et au <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-capture-et-le-stockage-du-carbone-comment-ca-marche-192673">stockage de carbone technologique</a>, qui sont des options <a href="https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/publications/avis-sur-la-strategie-de-capture-du-carbone-son-utilisation-et-son-stockage-ccus/">plus coûteuses, limitées et risquées</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224117/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Financements publics reçus par l'INRAE pour des projets que j'ai coordonné : de l'Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France) ; du programme de recherche Horizon de la Commission Européenne ; du programme KIC Climat de l'Institut Européen de Technologie ; de l'ADEME (France).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré préside le Haut conseil français pour le climat. Corinne Le Quéré a reçu des financements du programme de recherche et d'innovation Horizon 2020 de l'Union européenne dans le cadre de la convention de subvention n° 821003 (4C), du Conseil de recherche sur l'environnement naturel du Royaume-Uni sous la subvention NE/V011103/1 (Frontiers), de la Royal Society du Royaume-Uni sous subvention RP\R1\191063 (Professeur de recherche), et a reçu un don pour financer ses recherches de l'Institut virtuel de recherche sur le système terrestre (VESRI), une initiative de Schmidt Futures. Corinne Le Quéré est également membre du Comité britannique sur le changement climatique. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marion Guillou est actuellement présidente de l’Académie d’agriculture de France et membre du Haut conseil pour le Climat.
Elle fait partie de plusieurs conseils d’administration privés et publics qui ne tirent aucun bénéfice des sujets traités dans cet article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Dubuisson-Quellier est directrice de recherche au CNRS et directrice du Centre de sociologie des organisations (CNRS-Sciences Po), membre du Haut conseil pour le climat. Dans le cadre de ses activités de recherche, elle a reçu des financements de l'Agence nationale de la recherche pour le projet ANR-18-CE26-0016 sur les politiques alimentaires.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Valérie Masson-Delmotte est directrice de recherches au CEA, et a été co-présidente du groupe I du GIEC de 2015 à 2023. Elle a reçu des financements de l'European Research Council pour le projet ERC Synergy AWACA sur le cycle de l'eau en Antarctique.</span></em></p>Nos systèmes agricoles et alimentaires sont en première ligne du changement climatique. Ils pourraient être transformés pour gagner en résilience et équité, et contribuer à la stabilisation du climat.Jean-François Soussana, Directeur de Recherche, InraeCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaMarion Guillou, Retired scientist, InraeSophie Dubuisson-Quellier, Directrice de recherche CNRS, Sciences Po Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Chercheuse en sciences du climat, coprésidente du groupe de travail I du GIEC, directrice de recherche au CEA (Commissariat à l’énergie atomique), Université Paris-SaclayLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226502024-02-08T16:28:03Z2024-02-08T16:28:03ZDo one in six Indians over 59 really have a mild brain disorder, as a new study suggests?<p>India is often perceived as a country with a <a href="https://ig.ft.com/india-population/">young population</a>, while European and North American populations are regarded as ageing. Although this is true, the country’s demographics are rapidly <a href="https://india.unfpa.org/en/news/india-ageing-report-2023-unveils-insights-elderly-care-challenges-and-solutions">shifting</a>, according to a UN study. And people aged 60 and over are expected to <a href="https://lasi.hsph.harvard.edu/files/lasi/files/lasi_india_report_2020.pdf?m=1610054498">constitute 20%</a> of the population by 2050.</p>
<p>Given this trend, there have been numerous attempts – using different methods – to determine the prevalence of dementia on the subcontinent. A new study, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0297220">published in PLOS One</a>, suggests that the prevalence of dementia in India is higher than previously thought. </p>
<p>The researchers investigated the number of people with dementia in India by establishing how many people aged 60 and over in the country have a neurocognitive disorder. </p>
<p>Neurocognitive disorders – changes to cognition (thinking) because of a potential underlying brain disorder – are commonly divided into minor and major disorders. Dementia is considered a major neurocognitive disorder, while mild cognitive impairment, a common early stage of dementia, a minor neurocognitive disorder. </p>
<p>The study results showed that nearly one-sixth (17.6%) of people over 59 in India have a mild neurocognitive disorder, while 7.2% have a major neurocognitive disorder. </p>
<p>Extrapolating these estimates to the Indian population over 59 years of age (104 million) suggests that 24 million of those people have potentially mild cognitive impairment, while 9.9 million potentially have dementia. </p>
<p>There are 14.5 million people over 60 in the UK, meaning the dementia rate is about 6.5%, whereas, according to this latest study, the dementia rate in India is about 9.5%. However, the sheer size of the estimates in the study explains why the UN is paying closer attention to the ageing and dementia population in India. But how were mild cognitive impairment or dementia established in the study?</p>
<p>Mild cognitive impairment and dementia are commonly based on performance on cognitive tests and whether cognitive changes affect everyday activities. </p>
<p>For mild cognitive impairment, people will have mild cognitive changes, but they do not affect their everyday activities. Whereas for dementia, people will have cognitive changes that will affect their everyday activities. </p>
<p>Within the study, participants were asked to perform cognitive tests and their family members were asked to report changes in their everyday activities. For example, if they had slight memory changes but they did not affect their everyday activity would mean they would be considered to have mild cognitive impairment. </p>
<p>But if they had more significant memory problems and their family reported noticeable changes to their everyday activities, they then would be considered to have dementia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A busy street in Delhi, India" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574364/original/file-20240208-20-5pusnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574364/original/file-20240208-20-5pusnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574364/original/file-20240208-20-5pusnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574364/original/file-20240208-20-5pusnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574364/original/file-20240208-20-5pusnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574364/original/file-20240208-20-5pusnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574364/original/file-20240208-20-5pusnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India’s demographics are rapidly changing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/crowded-street-scene-old-delhi-india-9050353">Jeremy Richards/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shortcomings</h2>
<p>Despite cognition and everyday activity being key to dementia diagnostics worldwide, they have significant shortcomings, in particular for assessments in developing countries, such as India. </p>
<p>The main reason for this is that most cognitive tests were developed for literate populations with higher levels of formal education, whereas low formal education and illiteracy remain very prevalent in older and rural populations of developing countries. </p>
<p>For the current study, nearly half of their participants had either no formal education or were illiterate. This, therefore, creates uncertainty if the cognitive changes are because of the lower education or literacy levels of the person being tested or the first signs of dementia. </p>
<p>But what else can we do to determine if someone is either at risk or has dementia?</p>
<p>Blood might be the answer. A simple blood test to determine someone’s risk for dementia has been the holy grail in dementia research for decades. Now such blood tests have become a reality, at least in <a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/blood-test-early-alzheimer-s-detection">research studies</a>. </p>
<p>Dementia blood tests are still so new that they have not made it into the clinics, but it seems only a matter of time until these tests will be widely available across memory clinics and doctor’s surgeries. </p>
<p>Having a blood test result might remove the ambiguity of whether changes to cognition are the first signs of dementia or relate to other factors, such as level of formal education. </p>
<p>People in developing countries, such as India, will particularly benefit from such blood tests as the relevance of cognitive changes is then not as important anymore but can be used to support a diagnosis. </p>
<p>It will be interesting to see whether the estimates for mild cognitive impairment and dementia in the populations will change because of the new blood tests, as they might be more specific in determining who really has the disease or is at risk of it. A few drops of blood might change our perceptions of dementia in the future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/playing-a-musical-instrument-or-singing-in-a-choir-may-boost-your-brain-new-study-222195">Playing a musical instrument or singing in a choir may boost your brain – new study</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Hornberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A closer look at the study suggests something else might explain the high figure.Michael Hornberger, Professor of Applied Dementia Research, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226432024-02-08T16:27:56Z2024-02-08T16:27:56ZCybercriminals are creating their own AI chatbots to support hacking and scam users<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574086/original/file-20240207-26-evrzf4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5631%2C3754&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/system-hacked-warning-alert-on-notebook-2247888569">Pungu X / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence (AI) tools aimed at the general public, such as ChatGPT, Bard, CoPilot and Dall-E have incredible potential to be used for good. </p>
<p>The benefits range from an enhanced ability by <a href="https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/collection/guidelines-secure-ai-system-development">doctors to diagnose disease</a>, to expanding access to professional and academic expertise. But those with criminal intentions could also exploit and subvert these technologies, posing a threat to ordinary citizens.</p>
<p>Criminals are even creating their own AI chatbots, to support hacking and scams.</p>
<p>AI’s potential for wide-ranging risks and threats is underlined by the publication of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/generative-ai-framework-for-hmg">UK government’s Generative AI Framework</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/collection/guidelines-secure-ai-system-development">National Cyber Security Centre’s</a> guidance on the potential impacts of AI on online threats.</p>
<p>There are an increasing variety of ways that generative AI systems like ChatGPT and Dall-E can be <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/">used by criminals</a>. Because of ChatGPT’s ability to create tailored content based on a few simple prompts, one potential way it could be exploited by criminals is in crafting convincing scams and phishing messages. </p>
<p>A scammer could, for instance, put some basic information –- your name, gender and job title -– into a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ng-interactive/2023/nov/01/how-ai-chatbots-like-chatgpt-or-bard-work-visual-explainer">large language model (LLM)</a>, the technology behind AI chatbots like ChatGPT, and use it <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67614065">to craft a phishing message tailored just for you</a>. This <a href="https://securityintelligence.com/x-force/ai-vs-human-deceit-unravelling-new-age-phishing-tactics/">has been reported to be possible</a>, even though mechanisms have been implemented to prevent it.</p>
<p>LLMs also make it feasible to conduct <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10288940">large-scale phishing scams</a>, targeting thousands of people in their own native language. It’s not conjecture either. Analysis of underground hacking communities has uncovered a variety of instances of criminals using ChatGPT, <a href="https://research.checkpoint.com/2023/opwnai-cybercriminals-starting-to-use-chatgpt/">including for fraud</a> and creating software to steal information. In <a href="https://research.checkpoint.com/2023/opwnai-cybercriminals-starting-to-use-chatgpt/">another case</a>, it was used to <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-38530-8_21">create ransomware</a>.</p>
<h2>Malicious chatbots</h2>
<p>Entire malicious variants of large language models are also emerging. <a href="https://www.trustwave.com/en-us/resources/blogs/spiderlabs-blog/wormgpt-and-fraudgpt-the-rise-of-malicious-llms/">WormGPT and FraudGPT</a> are two such examples that can create malware, find security vulnerabilities in systems, advise on ways to scam people, support hacking and compromise people’s electronic devices. </p>
<p><a href="https://blog.avast.com/your-next-online-dating-match-might-actually-be-chatgpt">Love-GPT</a> is one of the newer variants and is used <a href="https://theconversation.com/online-romance-scams-research-reveals-scammers-tactics-and-how-to-defend-against-them-210124">in romance scams</a>. It has been used to create fake dating profiles capable of chatting to unsuspecting victims on Tinder, Bumble, and other apps.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Person looking at computer screens." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574095/original/file-20240207-28-aaoh6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574095/original/file-20240207-28-aaoh6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574095/original/file-20240207-28-aaoh6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574095/original/file-20240207-28-aaoh6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574095/original/file-20240207-28-aaoh6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574095/original/file-20240207-28-aaoh6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574095/original/file-20240207-28-aaoh6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The use of AI to create phishing emails and ransomware is a transnational issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cybersecurity-woman-computer-global-network-phishing-2342311683">PeopleImages.com - Yuri A</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result of these threats, Europol has <a href="https://www.europol.europa.eu/media-press/newsroom/news/criminal-use-of-chatgpt-cautionary-tale-about-large-language-models">issued a press release</a> about criminals’ use of LLMs. The US CISA security agency <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/resources-tools/resources/risk-focus-generative-ai-and-2024-election-cycle">has also warned</a> about generative AI’s potential effect on the upcoming US presidential elections.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/openai-rolls-out-imperfect-fix-for-chatgpt-data-leak-flaw/">Privacy and trust are always at risk</a> as we use ChatGPT, CoPilot and other platforms. As more people look to take advantage of AI tools, there is a high likelihood that personal and confidential corporate information will be shared. This is a risk because LLMs usually use any data input as part of their future training dataset, and second, if they are compromised, they may share that confidential data with others.</p>
<h2>Leaky ship</h2>
<p>Research has already demonstrated the feasibility of ChatGPT <a href="https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/openai-rolls-out-imperfect-fix-for-chatgpt-data-leak-flaw/">leaking a user’s conversations</a> and <a href="https://mashable.com/article/chatgpt-revealed-personal-data-verbatim-text-attack-researchers">exposing the data used</a> to train the model behind it – sometimes, with simple techniques. </p>
<p>In a surprisingly effective attack, researchers were able to use the prompt, <a href="https://not-just-memorization.github.io/extracting-training-data-from-chatgpt.html">“Repeat the word ‘poem’ forever”</a> to cause ChatGPT to inadvertently expose large amounts of training data, some of which was sensitive. These vulnerabilities place person’s privacy or a business’s most-prized data at risk. </p>
<p>More widely, this could contribute to a lack of trust in AI. Various companies, including <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/05/19/apple-joins-a-growing-list-of-companies-cracking-down-on-use-of-chatgpt-by-staffers-heres-why/?sh=fa89fd828ffa">Apple, Amazon and JP Morgan Chase</a>, have already banned the use of ChatGPT as a precautionary measure.</p>
<p>ChatGPT and similar LLMs represent the latest advancements in AI and are freely available for anyone to use. It’s important that its users are aware of the risks and how they can use these technologies safely at home or at work. Here are some tips for staying safe.</p>
<p>Be more cautious with messages, videos, pictures and phone calls that appear to be legitimate as these may be generated by AI tools. Check with a second or known
source to be sure.</p>
<p>Avoid sharing sensitive or private information with ChatGPT and LLMs more
generally. Also, remember that AI tools are not perfect and may provide inaccurate responses. Keep this in mind particularly when considering their use in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-good-is-chatgpt-at-diagnosing-disease-a-doctor-puts-it-through-its-paces-203281">medical diagnoses</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/23/two-us-lawyers-fined-submitting-fake-court-citations-chatgpt">work</a> and other areas of life.</p>
<p>You should also check with your employer before using AI technologies in your job. There may be specific rules around their use, or they may not be allowed at all. As technology advances apace, we can at least use some sensible precautions to protect against the threats we know about and those yet to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason R.C. Nurse receives funding from The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), The Research Institute for Sociotechnical Cyber Security, and The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC). He is affiliated with Wolfson College, University of Oxford as a Research Member, CybSafe as the Director of Science and Research, and The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) as an Associate Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oli Buckley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Like many technologies, AI can be subverted by cybercriminals.Oli Buckley, Professor of Cyber Security, University of East AngliaJason R.C. Nurse, Associate Professor in Cyber Security, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221952024-02-01T16:03:02Z2024-02-01T16:03:02ZPlaying a musical instrument or singing in a choir may boost your brain – new study<p>Generations of parents have told their children to practice their musical instruments. Parents have good reason to keep on top of their children’s musical education, since learning an instrument is not only associated with <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2009.00598.x">better educational attainment</a> but also <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnins.2013.00279/full#B43">cognition (thinking)</a> and even <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0003566">intelligence scores</a> in children. But does this musicality translate to better cognition later in life?</p>
<p>A <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/gps.6061">recent study</a> in the International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry investigated this question by asking middle-aged and older people to complete a questionnaire on their lifetime musical experience before completing cognitive (thinking) tests. The results showed that musical people had better memory and executive function (the ability to stay focused on tasks, plan and have self-control) than those with less or no musicality. </p>
<p>A good memory is important for playing a musical instrument, such as playing music from memory, and this seems to translate to people’s cognitive performance. Similarly, executive function is required when playing an instrument, and this too translated to improved cognitive performance. </p>
<p>This finding was similar, regardless of which instrument people played or the level of musical proficiency people acquired – although most people in the study played an instrument for only a few years of their lives. </p>
<p>What made a difference, however, was whether people still played an instrument or only played in the past, with current amateur musicians showing the highest cognitive performance of participants. </p>
<p>This makes sense as continued engagement in cognitively stimulating activities, such as playing an instrument, should result in continued brain health benefits, whereas having played the recorder for three years at primary school might not have that big an impact on our cognitive performance later in life. But how about being musical without playing an instrument?</p>
<p>Singing is a very popular musical activity as it allows joining musical groups, such as choirs, without the need to learn a musical instrument. But does singing provide the same cognitive benefit as playing an instrument? </p>
<p>According to the study findings, singing can result in better executive function but not memory, suggesting that playing an instrument has additional brain health benefits. </p>
<p>Why singing would help us with our executive function is not clear and requires further investigation. However, singing has a strong social benefit when done in choirs, and there is good evidence that being engaged in social activity is good for our brain health. </p>
<h2>The ‘Mozart effect’</h2>
<p>How about just listening to music? Does it also improve our cognition and potentially brain health? </p>
<p>Many people might remember the famous “Mozart effect”, which was based on a study published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/365611a0">Nature</a> in 1993 showing that when students were played Mozart, they scored higher on intelligence tests. </p>
<p>This led to a whole industry promising us that playing such music to ourselves or even our babies could lead to cognitive benefits, even though the evidence for the original study is still controversially discussed to this day. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pregnant woman with headphones on her stomach" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572783/original/file-20240201-29-fsngfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572783/original/file-20240201-29-fsngfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572783/original/file-20240201-29-fsngfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572783/original/file-20240201-29-fsngfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572783/original/file-20240201-29-fsngfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572783/original/file-20240201-29-fsngfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572783/original/file-20240201-29-fsngfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Playing Mozart won’t make your baby smarter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pregnant-women-listening-music-mozart-effect-1278569506">comzeal images/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sadly, the current study found no association between listening to music and cognitive performance. Cognitive stimulation depends on us being actively engaged in activities, so passively listening to music doesn’t seem to provide any cognitive benefits. </p>
<p>Playing an instrument or singing seems to have benefits to our brain health in ageing, according to the study. What is yet to be established is whether this would also help prevent future cognitive decline or dementia. </p>
<p>The study provides no evidence for this yet and it is also not clear how the findings apply to the general population, since most people in the study were female, well-educated and well-off. </p>
<p>Still, considering the overall cognitive and social benefits of learning an instrument or singing in a choir, it might be worth engaging in such cognitive stimulation as we age. Our parents would be proud of us.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-music-heals-us-even-when-its-sad-by-a-neuroscientist-leading-a-new-study-of-musical-therapy-214924">How music heals us, even when it's sad – by a neuroscientist leading a new study of musical therapy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Hornberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Listening to music, though, doesn’t have the same benefits.Michael Hornberger, Professor of Applied Dementia Research, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217892024-01-29T12:51:00Z2024-01-29T12:51:00ZOver half of charity campaigns for international causes focus on Africa – here’s why that’s harmful<p>The images used by charities and NGOs can become deeply ingrained in the memories of supporters, donors, development partners and the “beneficiaries” themselves. These stories colour what is generally known about global poverty and the developing world. </p>
<p>One of the most notorious examples was the media and charity coverage of the <a href="http://www.imaging-famine.org/papers/UK_Report_Section_1.pdf">Ethiopian famine</a> in the early 1980s. Powerful and disturbing images brought the reality of the famine into the lives of millions of British people and fast became the currency of the media and NGOs.</p>
<p>But there’s a problem with this. The use of such imagery seems to confirm rather than challenge traditional perceptions that Africa is underdeveloped and not capable of dealing with its own problems.</p>
<p>In 2021, I purchased 17 national newspapers in the UK every weekend over a period of six months. The aim was to explore whether charity adverts have changed in recent years and what kinds of characters are represented in fundraising campaigns. </p>
<p>After analysing a total of 541 fundraising images, one of the <a href="https://charity-advertising.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/charity-representations-of-distant-others-report-2024.pdf">major findings</a> was that Africa continues to be over-represented in charity adverts supporting international causes. Over half of the images (56%) focused on countries in Africa. And almost none of these images contain whole family units – rather they are set in rural areas and feature women and children.</p>
<p>But there is also evidence that charities are actively responding to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/voluntary-sector-network/2018/jan/12/charities-stop-poverty-porn-fundraising-ed-sheeran-comic-relief">previous critiques</a> of using shock tactics, dehumanisation and employing images to evoke emotions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A charity advert in a newspaper with a picture of women and children in rural Ethiopia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example of an advert by EthiopiAid in the Guardian using images of women and children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Girling</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why does it matter?</h2>
<p>By constantly focusing the spotlight on African countries, charities reinforce historical stereotypes of underdevelopment that equate Africa with poverty. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/67684/public-attitudes-april10.pdf">report</a> from 2010 that was commissioned by the Department for International Development, for instance, found that the UK public view “developing countries” as synonymous with “Africa”. They associate Africa with poverty and misery, reflecting some of the representations used in charitable appeals. </p>
<p>The consistent portrayal of these depictions in various campaigns has promoted the view among the British public that there has been little to no progress in economic and social development across Africa since the 1980s. This has contributed to the belief that Africa is a “<a href="https://academicjournals.org/article/article1379931879_Andrews.pdf">bottomless pit</a>” in terms of charitable efforts and the constant need for foreign aid.</p>
<p>But, in reality, this is not the case. Africa is developing fast. It has the world’s <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/reimagining-economic-growth-in-africa-turning-diversity-into-opportunity">youngest and fastest-growing population</a> which, by the middle of this century, is expected to hit 2.5 billion.</p>
<h2>Addressing stereotypes</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, my findings do suggest that the sector is making strides towards decolonising narratives and addressing its use of damaging stereotypes. In 2016, a study found that 34% of all <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jid.3235">British charity adverts</a> used “pitiful images” that explicitly emphasised human suffering. </p>
<p>However, by 2021, only two out of the 27 charities that placed adverts used pitiful images in their fundraising appeals. This amounted to 11% of all adverts as these charities repeatedly used such imagery over the six month study period, but it still represents a significant decline.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A fundraising appeal by Sightsavers depicting an African child suffering from trachoma." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Image from a Sightsavers fundraising leaflet which was used 20 times during the six month period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Girling</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Women and children continued to be the most popular characters in newspaper adverts. But, compared to similar studies from <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/representations-of-global-poverty-9780857722492/">2013</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jid.3235">2016</a>, there was a significant reduction in the use of images of children. In 2021, 21% of charitable campaigns featured images of children, down from 42% in 2013.</p>
<p>By 2021, 20% of all the images used in charitable campaigns were also of people characterised as professionals or leaders from developing countries. These people included doctors, nurses and other development workers, offering a more realistic view of people from Africa.</p>
<p>Several factors have prompted charities into reconsidering the potential damage of the representation they use and the stories they tell in recent years. One of the main factors is the need to decolonise narratives by reducing the use of negative stereotypes.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Black-Lives-Matter">Black Lives Matter</a> protests in 2020 were a significant catalyst in charities rapidly adopting or updating their ethical imagery policies. The protests alerted people and organisations to the injustices of colonial histories. </p>
<p>The COVID pandemic was also instrumental in charities being forced to employ local photographers and filmmakers in the countries where they deliver programmes. Travel restrictions that were imposed during the pandemic meant charities were unable to fly in their own staff.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>Images have the potential to inflict damage. So communications professionals in the charity sector must strive to diversify the characters they portray.</p>
<p>But the public has a level of responsibility too. We all need to be careful about making assumptions of other countries and cultures when viewing charity images in newspaper adverts. Photographs may not always provide a complete picture.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Girling does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Charity advertising often reinforces historical stereotypes of underdevelopment that equate Africa with poverty.David Girling, Associate Professor and Director of Research Communication in the School of Global Development, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2211662024-01-18T16:49:19Z2024-01-18T16:49:19ZAi Weiwei says art that can be replicated by AI is ‘meaningless’ – philosopher explains what that means for the future of art<p>Ai Weiwei, China’s most famous dissident and artist, has called art that can be easily replicated by artificial intelligence (AI) “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2024/jan/11/art-that-can-be-easily-copied-by-ai-is-meaningless-says-ai-weiwei#:%7E:text=Art%20that%20can%20be%20easily%20replicated%20by%20artificial%20intelligence%20is,had%20existed%20in%20their%20era.">meaningless</a>”. What I find most striking about this comment is how it manages to look both backwards into the intricate corridors of art history and forwards into the uncertain future of the art world. </p>
<p>Does Ai Weiwei mean that AI should make us rethink our appreciation of the works of art of the past? Or is AI so powerful that it should shape the mission of future artists?</p>
<p>The undertones of this double challenge are familiar to philosophers of art, who have, at times, seriously entertained the claim that art can come to an end. </p>
<h2>Exploring art’s goal</h2>
<p>Among the most famous and influential voices are <a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/hegel/works/ae/index.htm">G. W. Hegel</a> in the early 19th century and <a href="https://archive.org/details/philosophicaldis0000dant/page/n7/mode/2up">Arthur Danto</a> in the late 20th century. Both have argued that while artworks can continue to be produced in great numbers – and perhaps even in new and exciting ways – there is a sense in which the progress of art has reached its peak. </p>
<p>According to their arguments, art has “ended” because it has completed its goal. This claim might seem obscure to a contemporary audience, but what both Hegel and Danto were getting at is pretty simple. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Portrait of G.W Hegel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=781&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=781&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=781&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=982&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=982&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569322/original/file-20240115-27-vq1nzr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=982&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">G.W Hegel was a prominent philosopher of art.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georg_Wilhelm_Friedrich_Hegel#/media/File:1831_Schlesinger_Philosoph_Georg_Friedrich_Wilhelm_Hegel_anagoria.JPG">Alte Nationalgalerie</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If you think about art as having some sort of innermost goal, then you can imagine that at some point in time, that goal has been attained. Art always does something in that it has an effect. An effect on the artist creating it, on its audience and ultimately on the world. But that intended overall effect can change. </p>
<p>Danto claimed that looking into the history of art, we can extract a narrative, or a story, about how art has achieved its goal. </p>
<p>The first narrative, capturing centuries of art history from classical Greek sculpture to Renaissance paintings, was focused on verisimilitude – here art’s goal was to create realistic representations of its subject. </p>
<p>The second of art’s narratives, Danto believed, was triggered by a crisis which came from the technological advancement brought by the camera. Since art’s first goal – of creating perfect representations – had been superseded, art needed a new one. The second goal was to enquire into what art itself could be, seeking out its own limits. </p>
<p>The works of various modernist artists – such as Pablo Picasso’s The Aficionado (1912) or Wassily Kandinsky’s Bustling Aquarelle (1923), up to <a href="https://philamuseum.org/collection/object/89204">Andy Warhol’s Brillo Boxes</a> (1964) – could then be understood as a quest for establishing what it means for an object to be an artwork and asking: “What is the meaning of art itself?”</p>
<p>Writing in 1967, Danto believed that even this second goal had been fulfilled – but perhaps its repercussions haven’t quite been felt yet. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hegel-is-considered-the-hardest-philosopher-but-his-views-arent-actually-that-outlandish-196066">Hegel is considered the hardest philosopher, but his views aren’t actually that outlandish</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A third goal for art</h2>
<p>This is where I think Weiwei’s new perspective is refreshing. It seems to suggest that AI technology might be pushing us towards a new goal for art. The new challenge would be establishing what a truly digital future of art might look like – and what our human contribution to it might be.</p>
<p>We can then ask how art can be meaningful again in our AI-shaped social worlds. And what the role of the artist should be in creating this meaning. </p>
<p>Philosophers of various convictions, from <a href="https://archive.org/details/deweyjohnartasanexperience">John Dewey</a> to <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/marvelous-images-9780195177947?cc=gb&lang=en&">Kendall Walton</a>, have pointed to such a solution for a long time. We can create new meaning for art by exploring new forms of expression – by doing new things with both new and old tools.</p>
<p>Art not only adapts to new tools and technology, it does something new with them, and in that process, it has the potential to become something new itself. </p>
<p>Ai Weiwei himself touches upon this in one of his quotations in his book <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691157665/weiwei-isms">Weiwei-isms</a> (2012), when he says that art is: “About freedom of expression, a new way of communication. It is never about exhibiting in museums or about hanging it on the wall … I don’t think anybody can separate art from politics.”</p>
<p>The subtle slide here, from new forms of expression to new ways of contributing to political conversations, prompts another important question: how can art contribute to political conversations in distinctive ways? </p>
<p>In his new book, <a href="https://shop.royalacademy.org.uk/artists-remake-the-world-a-contemporary-art-manifesto">Artists Remake the World: A Contemporary Art Manifesto</a>, philosopher Vid Simoniti suggests a possible answer. He claims that art provides a distinct mode of political expression which enables audiences to reflect on central issues while momentarily setting aside binary judgments of right or wrong. </p>
<p>Art permits engagement with political matters without imposing the burden of adopting a specific stance. It is moored to the real world, but allows also for an open-ended space where new positions can be imagined, explored and inhabited. Could AI create those artistic spaces with us, or for us? Perhaps confronting this challenge could set a new goal for the digital art of the future. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/something-good-156">Sign up here</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maria Serban does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Philosophers of art have, at times, entertained quite seriously the claim that art can come to an end.Maria Serban, Lecturer in Philosophy, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181712024-01-16T14:13:09Z2024-01-16T14:13:09ZUganda’s battle for the youth vote – how Museveni keeps Bobi Wine’s reach in check<p>Uganda is one of the youngest countries in the world, with an <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2020/02/25/uganda-jobs-strategy-for-inclusive-growth#:%7E:text=Uganda%20is%20one%20of%20the,working%20age%20population%20is%20rapid.">average age of 15.9 years</a>. Young people aged below 30 make up about <a href="https://www.issuelab.org/resources/4998/4998.pdf#page=1">77%</a> of the country’s population of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=UG">47 million</a> people.</p>
<p>Young people have legitimate and wide-ranging grievances, from unemployment to disenfranchisement. Opportunities remain limited, with <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2020/02/25/uganda-jobs-strategy-for-inclusive-growth">two-thirds of Ugandans</a> working for themselves or doing family-based agricultural work.</p>
<p>Yet, young people in Uganda haven’t coalesced as an electoral bloc. This is despite the emergence of a presidential candidate who champions youth issues. In the last presidential election in 2021, those aged between 18 and 30 made up <a href="https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/oped/commentary/what-young-voting-population-means-for-2021-elections-3206502">41%</a> of the total voter roll of 18 million. </p>
<p>Robert Kyagulanyi, the 41-year-old musician-turned-politician popularly known as Bobi Wine, leads the National Unity Platform. It is Uganda’s largest opposition party, known for its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/21/young-africa-new-wave-of-politicians-challenges-old-guard">youth appeal</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/bobi-wine-has-already-changed-the-ugandan-opposition-can-he-change-the-government-150231">Bobi Wine’s run at the presidency in the 2021 election</a> highlights the reality that capturing the youth vote in Uganda is complex. And that this broad category and the role it plays in Ugandan politics is poorly understood.</p>
<p>As it is, the term “youth” lacks a clear definition. Uganda’s government defines the youth as those aged between 18 and 30. However, in practice the “youth” category is much more amorphous. It tends to <a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/13550">encompass</a> those who are no longer considered children, but haven’t yet realised the “social markers” that signify adulthood. These include financial independence, marriage and children.</p>
<p>The outcome of the 2021 elections defied expectations, given Uganda’s <a href="https://www.ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/11_2022NLFS_2021_main_report.pdf#page=135">large and underemployed youth population</a> and the emergence of Bobi Wine. In a recent <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2023.2235661">paper</a>, we examined youth political mobilisation in this election. </p>
<p>Despite widespread “youth wave” optimism, we identified diverse, embedded strategies and tactics from the ruling party, the <a href="https://www.nrm.ug/manifesto-2021-2026">National Resistance Movement</a>, that obstructed Bobi Wine’s efforts to build a powerful national youth constituency. </p>
<p>The strategies were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the structural capture of youth representation in Ugandan politics</p></li>
<li><p>diverse economic incentives for political loyalty in the form of loan schemes, grants and short-term employment </p></li>
<li><p>well-spun political narratives that draw on entrenched views of youth as beholden to their elders and the state. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>New wine, old bottles</h2>
<p>When Bobi Wine ran in the presidential election, he was aged 38. Commentators worldwide suggested his candidacy represented a <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2019/1003/A-rapper-s-quest-to-be-president">real</a> and <a href="http://democracyinafrica.org/bobi_wine_threat_museveni/">unprecedented threat</a> to Yoweri Museveni’s longstanding rule. Museveni, 79, has been Uganda’s president since 1986.</p>
<p>Bobi Wine got <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/uganda-president-wins-decisive-election-as-bobi-wine-alleges">35%</a> of the vote. This is about the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/120/481/629/6406415?redirectedFrom=fulltext">same proportion of votes</a> that has accrued to the main opposition candidates in Uganda since multi-party elections resumed in 2006. </p>
<p>For a new entrant on the political scene, this was an impressive achievement – particularly in the light of political repression and patronage that make the <a href="https://time.com/5913625/bobi-wine-uganda-presidential-candidate/">playing field far from fair</a> in Uganda. </p>
<p>Bobi Wine’s <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2020/12/uganda-stop-killings-and-human-rights-violations-ahead-of-election-day/">violent arrest</a> in November 2020 gained international attention, as did the government’s aggressive response to protests calling for his release. These resulted in the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/21/uganda-elections-marred-violence">death of at least 54 National Unity Platform supporters</a>. Security forces perpetrated <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/21/uganda-elections-marred-violence">widespread violence and human rights abuses</a> in the run-up to the election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/black-november-remembering-ugandas-massacre-of-the-opposition-three-years-on-217847">Black November: remembering Uganda's massacre of the opposition three years on</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On the eve of the election, the government ordered a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kampala-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-uganda-united-states-65942284f4e73dbf120ace23775baae4">five-day internet shutdown</a>. There were also <a href="https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/special-reports/elections/nrm-dishes-out-money-to-locals-ahead-of-polls-3248892">reports</a> of the ruling party dishing out money to potential voters, with instructions to vote for Museveni. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2023.2235661">Our research</a> reviewed Ugandan history since its independence from the British in 1962. We found that the possibility of a national youth constituency had been a concern of Uganda’s post-colonial governments. Regimes have long sought to integrate the youth into their political project, while keeping them fragmented and regionally embedded to prevent broader political mobilisation. </p>
<p>Contemporary tactics used by the ruling party to co-opt the youth converge with these historically rooted methods of regime consolidation. </p>
<h2>Splitting the youth</h2>
<p>The National Resistance Movement has an elaborate set of measures in place –from state level to the villages – to prevent youth discontent from becoming a national political threat. </p>
<p>First, the youth are organised into a “special interest group” <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41653703">reinforced through quota systems</a>. These are closely allied with the ruling party’s leadership. Political structures, such as youth MPs and representatives, absorb youth representation under regime authority and entrench regional divisions. </p>
<p>Second, the ruling party uses patronage networks and tactics to mobilise young voters. It offers economic rewards for allegiance and generous material compensation for “party-switching” – which is when supporters defect from the opposition to the National Resistance Movement, often quite publicly. Ahead of the 2021 election, Museveni <a href="https://observer.ug/news/headlines/62550-inside-museveni-s-war-on-the-ghetto">gave state appointments to popular musicians with wide youth appeal</a> who had been working closely with Bobi Wine’s party. </p>
<p>The ruling party also offers young people <a href="https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/opposition-cries-foul-as-museveni-gives-shs741m-in-cash-donations-1484578">economic incentives</a> during campaigns. These include short-term employment, loans and cash handouts. Youth are often recruited as election workers, special police constables and crime preventers. In these short-term positions, tens of thousands of youth survey their communities and share local intelligence with the authorities, acting as the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2016.1272283">state’s eyes and ears</a> at a village level. Among young, economically precarious men, this is seen as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2023.2235661">an opportunity</a>, even though they become engaged in supporting the re-election of a regime they may oppose. </p>
<p>Third, during the last election, campaign observers were optimistic about the power of social media to amplify Bobi Wine’s message and increase support. But social media is also a tool the National Resistance Movement uses adeptly. Beyond internet shutdowns and disinformation campaigns, we found that Museveni and the National Resistance Movement used social media channels to promote powerful narratives that linked social order and prosperity to a culture of gerontocracy. This refers to a system of governance in which older people dominate.</p>
<h2>What hope for Bobi Wine?</h2>
<p>Well-developed structures, practices and narratives that fragment national youth mobilisation have been seen in recent Ugandan history. In northern Uganda, for example, young people have lived through a recent history of <a href="https://theconversation.com/managing-life-after-war-how-young-people-in-uganda-are-coping-108351">devastating conflict</a> and still struggle with its legacies. </p>
<p>This, combined with long-standing regional and ethnic tensions throughout the country, means that his opponents often describe Bobi Wine first as a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article/120/481/629/6406415?login=true">political agitator</a> who could tear the country apart, not as the youth’s best chance for <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2023.2235661">political liberation and progress</a>. </p>
<p>Against this backdrop, if Bobi Wine contests in 2026, he is likely to struggle again. He may attract global media attention, but Museveni and the National Resistance Movement are familiar with his brand of <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article/120/481/629/6406415?login=trueopposition">“defiance-based” opposition politics</a>. </p>
<p>As commentators increasingly note, the big question remains whether Bobi Wine and the National Unity Platform, without experience in government and in the absence of strong links to powerful military and state players, can realistically achieve a political <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article/120/481/629/6406415?login=trueopposition">transition</a> in Uganda. </p>
<p>The overall picture is one in which the elite have long seen the youth as an important resource and potential threat – and as such fear and value them. While Uganda’s young people have real and legitimate grievances, they lack modes of political and social organisation – by long-standing design.</p>
<p><em>Arthur Owor, the director for research and operations at the Centre for African Research, is a co-author of this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218171/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Tapscott receives funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for Public Authority and International Development (CPAID) and the Gerda Henkel Foundation's Special Programme for Security, Society and the State.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Macdonald receives funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for Public Authority and International Development (CPAID). </span></em></p>Bobi Wine’s run at the presidency in 2021 had appeared to present an unprecedented threat to Yoweri Museveni’s longstanding rule.Rebecca Tapscott, Lecturer, University of YorkAnna Macdonald, Associate Professor, Global Development, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209072024-01-12T17:38:52Z2024-01-12T17:38:52ZAn international body will need to oversee AI regulation, but we need to think carefully about what it looks like<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568908/original/file-20240111-21-m8i6y7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4397%2C2925&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/technology-meets-humanity-background-modern-remake-2059473317">Rawpixel.com / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence (AI) will have serious societal impact globally. So it is more urgent than ever that state leaders cooperate to regulate the technology.</p>
<p>There have been various calls already: the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-2-november-2023">Bletchley Declaration</a> at a recent UK summit and the 11 <a href="https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/100573466.pdf">AI principles and code of conduct agreed on by G7 leaders</a>, for example. But these largely state the obvious. The real question is not whether international cooperation on AI is needed, but how can it be realised?</p>
<p>The most obvious way to secure this in a way that maximises the benefits of AI, and puts in “guardrails” – controls – to manage the significant risks posed, is to set up an intergovernmental body.</p>
<p>Indeed, one idea is to create a <a href="https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/eye-ai-could-world-tech-organization-be-means-regulate-ai">World Technology Organisation</a>. Others <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/business/artificial-intelligence-regulation-openai.html">advocate</a> for a body similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), drawing a comparison between AI and nuclear weapons in terms of the risks posed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/strengthening-international-cooperation-on-ai/">Another view</a> is to develop an institutional framework inspired by entities such as Cern, the Human Genome Project, or the International Space Station (ISS).</p>
<p>However, creating an AI or technology-specific international organisation, whatever it may be called, faces three particularly difficult challenges. </p>
<h2>Friction between powers</h2>
<p>First, with AI being a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/01/07/the-dual-use-dilemma-of-artificial-intelligence/?sh=2cc2a5366cf0">dual use</a> technology – which means it is capable of being deployed for both peaceful and military purposes – it is unlikely that the major powers would be willing to come together to form a global institution that can meaningfully police its development and use. </p>
<p>The so called <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7539dcab-faf2-43a5-8a4e-77f98afecb19">chip war</a> between the US and China is in full flow. AI technology is also the subject of intense geopolitical competition. The friction between the major powers creates serious hurdles for international cooperation on AI in particular. </p>
<p>In fact, existing international institutions built following the Second World War are already structurally affected by interstate friction. For example, the UN Security Council continues to be <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143677">paralysed on the greatest controversies of international concern</a> today. </p>
<p>The Appellate Body of the World Trade Organisation, one of the most successful international mechanisms for adjudicating on trade issues in the past, is currently dysfunctional because the US refuses to endorse judicial appointments to it. But, even before its demise, I argued that it encountered significant <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3519891">structural deficits</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="UN Security Council" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569058/original/file-20240112-19-2029sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569058/original/file-20240112-19-2029sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569058/original/file-20240112-19-2029sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569058/original/file-20240112-19-2029sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569058/original/file-20240112-19-2029sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569058/original/file-20240112-19-2029sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569058/original/file-20240112-19-2029sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disagreements in the UN Security Council have posed major challenges to resolving armed conflicts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/members-security-council-vote-adopt-resolution-2331958285">lev radin / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The major international financial institutions are also facing serious governance challenges. The G20 leaders recently <a href="http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/2005/2005bwi.pdf">called for reforms</a> to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and for their roles to become more clearly defined.</p>
<p>With existing international institutions in crisis, it is hard to imagine that a stand-alone international organisation to regulate AI can be created any time soon. </p>
<h2>What will an AI-focused organisation do?</h2>
<p>Second, even if the international community somehow agrees to create an AI or tech-specific regulating body, the question remains what will this organisation actually do? Would an AI-focused organisation seek to enhance scientific cooperation between different research groups, or will it try to coordinate AI regulation across countries.</p>
<p>Would any such organisation create a monitoring regime to ensure that only human-centric, trustworthy and responsible AI is developed? How would such a regime come into operation and carry out enforcement? Would it also be mandated to help developing and the least developed countries realise AI’s full potential? </p>
<p>Sovereignty concerns, national security, perceived national interest and, ultimately, different approaches taken to AI, mean that reaching a valuable consensus on what such an organisation should do is likely to remain elusive for some time. Already, we see different choices made on AI regulatory frameworks and deployment. While the <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A52021PC0206">EU’s AI act</a> outlaws social scoring and real-time facial recognition, authoritarian states take a different approach.</p>
<p>It is thus important not to get carried away by generalised statements by the international community, giving the impression that an international law on AI <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/biden-bletchley-and-the-emerging-international-law-of-ai/">may be emerging</a>. Hardly anyone would disagree that society needs to be protected from the risks posed by AI. Its deployment should not undermine human rights and it should be safe and trustworthy. </p>
<p>But it is the translation of such generalised principles <a href="https://theconversation.com/bletchley-declaration-international-agreement-on-ai-safety-is-a-good-start-but-ordinary-people-need-a-say-not-just-elites-217042">into specific commitments</a> made in international law that poses a significant challenge. </p>
<p>Risk assessments on AI tools may yield distinct results depending on who carries them out. Which rights ought to be prioritised – individual rights versus security interests – might differ across different countries. So would what constitutes ethical forms of AI.</p>
<h2>What role for private actors?</h2>
<p>The third main challenge in creating an international overseeing body relates to the institutional character that ought to be adopted. This includes the role that the private sector is given in any governance framework. </p>
<p>Given the very significant role of the private sector in developing and deploying AI tools, a joint public-private governance model may be the only realistic option. Presently, it is countries that are the central actors in the international community.</p>
<p>Incorporating private companies into an international governance structure that generally favours nations over everything else could pose problems. That’s a challenge that must be overcome before such an organisation is created. </p>
<p>Finally, international cooperation on AI already exists to some extent. Organisations, including the <a href="https://legalinstruments.oecd.org/en/instruments/oecd-legal-0449">OECD</a>, <a href="https://www.unesco.org/en/artificial-intelligence/recommendation-ethics">UNESCO</a> and the <a href="https://www.holisticai.com/news/iso-iec-22989-foundational-standard-on-ai-open-source">International Organization for Standardization</a> have already developed recommendations or standards in the spheres of their expertise. </p>
<p>Other bodies, such as the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_890740/lang--en/index.htm">International Labour Organisation</a> and the <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/19-10-2023-who-outlines-considerations-for-regulation-of-artificial-intelligence-for-health">World Health Organization</a> have started to consider the impact of AI in their mandates.</p>
<p>The UN has also established a <a href="https://www.un.org/techenvoy/ai-advisory-body">High-Level Advisory Body on AI</a> to undertake analysis and advance recommendations for the international governance of this technology. It is too early to conclude whether this fragmented approach can lead to a well thought out and coordinated response. </p>
<p>Until the circumstances are right for creating a standalone AI-focused international organisation, what is almost certain is that powerful actors, such as the US – where most tech-companies are based – and the European Union’s AI Act will have an outsized influence on the content of AI regulation and governance globally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rishi Gulati does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Friction between the major powers means establishing an international body is a major challenge.Rishi Gulati, Associate Professor in International Law, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205112024-01-10T14:16:14Z2024-01-10T14:16:14ZHow to keep a new year’s resolution: ask yourself why you’re doing it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568451/original/file-20240109-25-hkhp4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=87%2C21%2C6954%2C4032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/keep-going-cropped-shot-female-fitness-2167544337">PeopleImages.com - Yuri A/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is easy, in December, when surrounded by chocolate wrappers and leftover Christmas pudding, to decide to change your life when January comes around. It’s quite different when January arrives, bringing with it more darkness, more rain and possible feelings of <a href="https://www.keepingwellblmk.nhs.uk/self-help-resources/winter-pressures/january-blues">low mood</a>. </p>
<p>By now, it may well be that all the good intentions you had when browsing the Boxing Day sales for athleisure and sports equipment, signing up for gym memberships or committing to going <a href="https://veganuary.com/">vegan</a> for a month have started to fall by the wayside. </p>
<p>Our lives don’t magically change on the first of January any more than they do on any other day. Making a change takes work. </p>
<p>The key question to ask yourself when it comes to new year’s resolutions is “why”. Why have you decided to change the things you have, or to do the things you have? What has driven you to it, and why do you want to achieve it? </p>
<p>If the answer is “I don’t know”, or is related to external pressures from other people or society in general (“I feel like everyone else has joined a gym, so I should too”), then chances are the resolutions won’t be sustainable. </p>
<p>Our research, which uses self-determination theory, led us to this conclusion. This theory, grounded in psychology, tells us that motivation is key to continuing with an activity, but that motivation needs to come from within ourselves – to be what is known as autonomous or internalised. </p>
<h2>Find value in what you’re doing</h2>
<p>If you are undertaking something because you think other people want you to, or because you want validation from other people, you are unlikely to keep going. If the activity has value to you or is enjoyable, then you are more likely to persist, even in the face of difficulties and setbacks. </p>
<p>Let’s consider an example. Many of the most common resolutions relate to fitness, which is an area well served by <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/sms.13617?casa_token=p_wPzZAOXecAAAAA:GBmfJO4t0SGSINhN11SC8c3sLBNqdxthrZ3V-Wt8CkVtoWTTcncRwdm7kO2RpbIZqFYbTvrkQQPlJww">self-determination theory research</a>. </p>
<p>Some people might resolve to join a gym or take up running in January because they feel they’ve overindulged over Christmas, or because an offer pinged into their inbox and it seems like everyone is doing it. But they are substantially less likely to keep up the habit than those who make the same resolution because they feel that getting fit is important to them. </p>
<p>This second group of people have found <a href="https://ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1479-5868-9-78">value in fitness</a> which aligns with their own sense of what is important, or right for them, or likely to lead to a positive outcome which they value. People who enjoy fitness are also more likely to keep going with it. If you think about the activities you engage in in your own life, whether or not they are resolutions, this is likely to strike a chord. </p>
<h2>Meeting your goals</h2>
<p>You might have set yourself a <a href="https://selfdeterminationtheory.org/topics/application-goals/">specific goal</a> as a resolution – such as to reach a certain level in a language. Again, your success depends on how important this goal is to you. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman taking notes from laptop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568581/original/file-20240110-29-iei1pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568581/original/file-20240110-29-iei1pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568581/original/file-20240110-29-iei1pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568581/original/file-20240110-29-iei1pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568581/original/file-20240110-29-iei1pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568581/original/file-20240110-29-iei1pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568581/original/file-20240110-29-iei1pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Why have you decided to learn something new?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/focused-young-african-american-businesswoman-student-1361068373">fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Think about <a href="https://web-archive.southampton.ac.uk/www.llas.ac.uk/sites/default/files/nodes/6063/700_reasons.pdf">your reasons</a>. If it is because you think you “should” be able to speak another language, then you might not last that long – especially once the novelty has worn off and the effort required has stepped up. If you’re preparing for a trip, and you think <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5px045mw">knowing the local language</a> will help you when you are there, then you are more likely to sustain the habit – at least until the trip arrives. </p>
<p>Whether you continue beyond that is another question, as you will have met your original goal. Without another upcoming trip to the same destination, you might find that the habit you’ve created becomes harder to sustain. </p>
<p>So, with all this in mind, what can you do to ensure you keep your new year’s resolution? Well, firstly, try and make it something you enjoy. If you don’t enjoy it before you start, think about what you can do to make it enjoyable. If you’ve resolved to get fit, but the gym is not working for you, try something else – perhaps swimming, running or yoga. </p>
<p>If you want to learn a language, but it’s turning out to be <a href="https://selfdeterminationtheory.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Some-goals-just-feel-easier-Self-concordance-leads-to-goal-progress-through-subjective-ease-not-effor.pdf">hard work</a> rather than fun, try a TV series in your target language (with subtitles) or studying with a friend. </p>
<p>And make sure you’re in it for the right reasons. If you’re only doing something for other people, and not for yourself, then your motivation is likely to be poorer quality and <a href="https://selfdeterminationtheory.org/SDT/documents/2009_VansteenkisteSierensEtAl_JEP.pdf">harder to sustain</a>. A friend may have cajoled you into joining the gym, but if you start to look forward to the camaraderie of a spin class, your motivation will become more internalised. </p>
<p>And one final note. If you decide your new year’s resolution isn’t working, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4614-6806-6_8">allow yourself flexibility</a>. It’s ok to shift your goals, or put them on hold.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the answer is “I don’t know”, chances are your resolution won’t be sustainable.Abigail Parrish, Lecturer in Languages Education, University of SheffieldKimberley Jane Bartholomew, Associate Professor in Education, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196612023-12-20T16:05:46Z2023-12-20T16:05:46ZUK government facing legal action for failing to tackle climate change – but it could backfire<p>The parish of Whimpell once stood on the Norfolk coast between the village of Happisburgh and the sea. Whimpell <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/case-studies/coastal-erosion-at-happisburgh-norfolk-landslide-case-study/">disappeared into the sea</a> centuries ago thanks to coastal erosion. And now Happisburgh is facing a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-63822899">similar threat</a>.</p>
<p>Some, however, do not intend to give up without a fight. On October 17 2023, <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/wp-content/uploads/non-us-case-documents/2023/20231101_21608_complaint.pdf">a case was brought</a> against the UK government by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/01/claimants-take-uk-government-to-court-over-inadequate-climate-adaptation">two people</a> supported by Friends of the Earth, an environmental charity. </p>
<p>The first is Kevin Jordan, whose home is at risk due to coastal erosion in Hemsby, Norfolk. The second is Doug Paulley of Wetherby in west Yorkshire, who suffers from a number of medical issues that make him particularly vulnerable to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme heat.</p>
<p>Only a <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/rfriends-of-the-earth-ltd-mr-kevin-jordan-and-mr-doug-paulley-v-secretary-of-state-for-environment-rood-rural-affairs-challenge-to-the-third-national-adaptation-programme/">summary</a> of the claims has been made available publicly. But it is clear that the claimants are focusing on the UK’s most recent <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3">national adaptation programme</a> (NAP3). The NAP3 outlines the actions the government and others will take to adapt to the effects of climate change from 2023 to 2028. </p>
<p>The claimants argue that the NAP3 is not sufficiently ambitious and specific. It is also argued that there is no evidence that an appropriate assessment of the risks posed by climate change has been conducted, and that the unequal impact on protected groups has not been considered. </p>
<p>The claimants add that the government has failed to protect a number of <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/42/contents">human rights</a>, including the rights to property, life, respect to private and family life, and the prohibition of discrimination.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Crumbling cliffs at Happisburgh on the Norfolk coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566066/original/file-20231215-27-m57r9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566066/original/file-20231215-27-m57r9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566066/original/file-20231215-27-m57r9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566066/original/file-20231215-27-m57r9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566066/original/file-20231215-27-m57r9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566066/original/file-20231215-27-m57r9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566066/original/file-20231215-27-m57r9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Happisburgh in Norfolk has lost a lot of land to the sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/crumbling-cliffs-sea-erosion-happisburgh-on-417847936">Helen Hotson/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legality of the claims</h2>
<p>The preparation of the national adaption programme is required by <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/section/58">section 58</a> of the UK <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents">Climate Change Act 2008</a>. This article demands that the NAP3 sets out the objectives of the UK in relation to adaptation, as well as proposals for meeting these objectives.</p>
<p>However, section 58 does not explicitly require the government to take specific, ambitious action on adaptation to the impacts of climate change. The only indication in this law concerning the level of ambition that national adaption programmes should achieve is that adaptation objectives, proposals and policies “must be such as to contribute to sustainable development”. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that a progressive interpretation of the Climate Change Act may set an important precedent in relation to government obligation to actively adopt adaptation measures. The court, for example, may accept that the instruction that the NAP3 will “contribute to sustainable development” means that the government is obliged to adopt ambitious and specific adaptation measures, such as those requested by the claimants. </p>
<p>At the same time, it is also possible the court will understand this instruction in a very limited manner. For example, the court may clarify that the obligation to adopt adaptation measures is entirely within the discretion of the government and therefore, to put it bluntly, the government can do as it pleases. This is not an unlikely prospect given the High Court’s <a href="https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FoE-v-BEIS-judgment-180722.pdf">earlier narrow interpretation</a> of “sustainable development”.</p>
<p>The human rights arguments made by the claimants are clearer and simpler to understand. The fact that this case focuses on the government’s obligation to adapt to, rather than mitigate, climate change makes it easier to prove. The claimants don’t have to demonstrate that the UK government caused harm to their human rights, only that it has failed to protect them from the impacts of climate change.</p>
<h2>A growing trend</h2>
<p>This case is hardly a unique effort but rather part of a wider and growing trend of <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/">climate litigation</a> targeting both states and companies. Globally, hundreds of cases have been brought against states in the past two decades, with <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-jurisdiction/united-kingdom/">103</a> of them occurring in the UK.</p>
<p>A somewhat similar litigation – <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/union-of-swiss-senior-women-for-climate-protection-v-swiss-federal-council-and-others/">KlimaSeniorinnen v Switzerland</a> – is also currently before a different tribunal: the European Court of Human Rights. In this instance, a group of elderly citizens are claiming that the impacts of climate change are affecting certain human rights, including their right to life due to (among other things) climate change-related heatwaves. </p>
<p>The current UK case offers a glimpse into the potential benefits and risks that are involved in this strategy. The benefits are clear. The case has already been reported by leading media outlets and is being discussed by academics. </p>
<p>Winning the case and forcing the government to act on climate change could yet be another potential win, albeit an uncertain one given the record of climate litigation in the UK. While there have been a few celebrated cases, the vast majority of UK cases have been rejected.</p>
<p>The risks of climate litigation are equally clear. The court may clarify the meaning of the law – <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/r-finch-v-surrey-county-council/">as it has done before</a> – in a manner that those supportive of environmental action will not approve of. </p>
<p>This same risk exists in the current case. The court may limit the link between the impacts of climate change and human rights, or clarify that adaptation plan objectives could be as limited as the government wishes them to be.</p>
<p>To what extent this type of legal action will help tackle climate change in the UK remains to be seen. Given the risks discussed above, one may also question whether these cases bring more good than harm. But it’s a global phenomenon that shows no sign of stopping any time soon.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can we avoid dangerous climate change by taking government to court?Avidan Kent, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of East AngliaIrene Lorenzoni, Professor of Society and Environmental Change, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195182023-12-11T12:37:21Z2023-12-11T12:37:21ZWhooping cough cases increasing in the UK – what you need to know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564677/original/file-20231210-29-ny65no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C0%2C7904%2C5297&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/child-got-sick-virus-little-boy-1693664527">Zdan Ivan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may have read recent alarming reports of a cough that “<a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/24974770/highly-contagious-cough-fractured-ribs-whooping-cough/">lasts 100 days</a>” is “<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/health/100-day-cough-quickly-spreading-31622932">quickly spreading across the UK</a>” and can “<a href="https://nypost.com/2023/12/07/lifestyle/100-day-cough-highly-contagious-infection-that-could-fracture-ribs-soars-250-in-uk/">fracture ribs</a>”. If you didn’t look beyond the headlines, you might have missed the fact that the reports are about <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/whooping-cough/">whooping cough</a>.</p>
<p>So, what is going on?</p>
<p>Whooping cough (or pertussis) is what is known in the UK as a “notifiable infectious disease”, which means any doctor who diagnoses a case has a legal duty to report the infection to the local authority. Notifications of whooping cough are indeed much higher this year, particularly in the five months since July than at any time during the previous three years. </p>
<p>In the 21 weeks to November 27, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/notifiable-diseases-weekly-reports-for-2023">there were 716 notifications</a> compared with just 217 in the same period in 2022, 213 in 2021 and just 72 in 2020. That is more than a threefold rise this year compared with the previous year. </p>
<p>Like most respiratory infections, whooping cough was suppressed during the COVID years. Notifications for whooping cough this year are still <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/notifiable-diseases-weekly-reports-for-2023">markedly down on 2019</a> where there were 1,842 notifications over the same 21-week period. </p>
<p>What we are seeing now is a partial return to the pre-COVID situation and not an unprecedented surge in infections. (Although the reported cases represent only a <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-14-147">fraction of all cases</a> in the community.)</p>
<p>The fact that whooping cough notifications are still relatively low should not distract from the fact that infections in the 2010s were still much <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/notifiable-diseases-historic-annual-totals">higher than in the previous decade</a>. Since the mid-1950s and the introduction of a vaccine, whooping cough was <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pertussis-the-green-book-chapter-24">generally in decline</a> until this most recent decade. </p>
<h2>What is whooping cough?</h2>
<p>Whooping cough is a chest infection caused by the bacterium <em>Bordetella pertussis</em> – although another bacterium <em>Bordetella parapertussis</em> can also cause it. </p>
<p>The illness lasts for about six weeks or more and <a href="https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/967268-overview">progresses through three stages</a>. The first stage is very similar to a bad cold with a runny nose, sneezing and sore eyes. </p>
<p>The second phase, which starts after about two weeks, is characterised by bouts of intense coughing. Each bout can last several minutes and is occasionally followed by the loud whoop that gives the disease its name. Afterwards, a chronic cough can remain for several weeks.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l5SHtdczSBc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">What whooping cough sounds like.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most people eventually make a full recovery, but in babies under three months old <a href="https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/967268-overview#a6">1% to 3% may die</a>. And most children under six months will require hospitalisation. </p>
<p>About one in 50 babies under one year will <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/about/complications.html">suffer convulsions</a> and one in 150 (0.6%) will have encephalopathy (swelling of the brain). </p>
<p>Other even more serious neurological problems, such as paralysis and blindness, have been reported but are rare. In older children and adults, fainting, rib fractures, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/about/complications.html">pneumonia and urinary incontinence</a> can occur. </p>
<p>Antibiotics have limited value in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ebch.1845">treating whooping cough</a>. They can reduce the time that the patient is infectious to others, but they have limited effect on preventing symptoms. </p>
<h2>How to avoid getting it</h2>
<p>There is an effective vaccine for whooping cough that in the UK is given in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/routine-childhood-immunisation-schedule/routine-childhood-immunisations-from-february-2022-born-on-or-after-1-january-2020">combination with other vaccines</a> at eight, 12 and 16 weeks old. Then there is a booster shot given when the child is three years and four months. </p>
<p>The vaccine is also now recommended for pregnant women. This is not to protect the mother but to protect their baby during the first weeks of the child’s life before the first course of vaccine – when the infant would be at the highest risk of death.</p>
<p>Concerns about the safety of the vaccine, particularly during the 1970s, led to a significant fall in vaccine coverage and a re-emergence of whooping cough. </p>
<p>A committee of the US Institute of Medicine concluded that the evidence was “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK234367/">consistent with a causal relationship</a>” between the vaccine and acute encephalopathy, with a risk estimated at between zero and ten cases per million jabs administered. </p>
<p>However, subsequent studies suggested that many of the cases in the biggest study had a particular <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20447868/">genetic abnormality known as Dravet syndrome</a> and the whooping cough vaccine was merely bringing forward the date of onset of problems that would have happened anyway. </p>
<p>In any event, the studies reported above were of a time when whole-cell vaccines were being used (made from killed whole bacteria). Since 2004, whooping cough vaccines made with just parts of the bacterium (so-called acellular vaccine) have been used in the UK and these are associated with a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12706690/">lower risk of side-effects</a>.</p>
<h2>Far from clear</h2>
<p>The recent increase in notifications of whooping cough, as mentioned above, is due to COVID suppression measures – lockdowns, mask-wearing and hand hygiene – coming to an end. But why there were more whooping cough cases during the years 2010 to 2019 compared with the previous decade is far from clear. </p>
<p>Vaccine coverage in the years before COVID up to 2019 was <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pertussis-the-green-book-chapter-24">no lower than ten years previously</a>. <a href="https://karger.com/mpp/article/31/4/313/825084/Whole-Cell-and-Acellular-Pertussis-Vaccine">Possible explanations</a> include waning immunity, greater awareness of whooping cough among doctors (so more diagnoses), and improved laboratory diagnosis. </p>
<p>My take on the evidence is that the increasing infections in the years before COVID was down to the shift from whole-cell to acellular vaccine. Although the acellular vaccines cause fewer side-effects, they also generate <a href="https://karger.com/mpp/article/31/4/313/825084/Whole-Cell-and-Acellular-Pertussis-Vaccine">less powerful immunity</a>.</p>
<p>While both vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe disease, the acellular vaccine does not prevent mild infections that can be <a href="https://karger.com/mpp/article/31/4/313/825084/Whole-Cell-and-Acellular-Pertussis-Vaccine">infectious for others for as long</a>, so allowing the infection to continue to spread in the community. </p>
<p>The whole-cell pertussis vaccines were able to achieve herd immunity, which the acellular ones probably cannot. So the chance that young babies come into contact with an infectious older child or adult is now greater. </p>
<p>With the falling vaccination coverage in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pertussis-immunisation-in-pregnancy-vaccine-coverage-estimates-in-england-october-2013-to-march-2014/pertussis-vaccination-coverage-for-pregnant-women-in-england-january-to-march-and-annual-coverage-2021-to-2022">pregnant women</a> this puts babies at risk in their most vulnerable first weeks of life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Hunter consults for the World Health Organization. He receives funding from National Institute for Health Research and has received funding from the World Health Organization and the European Regional Development Fund.</span></em></p>Antibiotics aren’t very effective against it, but we do have a vaccine.Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194022023-12-11T01:59:03Z2023-12-11T01:59:03ZLagi, emisi CO2 energi fosil cetak rekor tertinggi tahun ini<p>Emisi karbon dioksida (CO2) global dari bahan bakar fosil terus meningkat dengan angka kenaikan pada 2023 sebesar 1,1%. Emisi tersebut mencetak rekor, dengan torehannya sebesar 36,8 miliar ton. </p>
<p>Angka ini adalah temuan dari <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/">laporan tahunan bujet karbon ke-18</a> dari <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Project</a> yang kami rilis 5 Desember lalu.</p>
<p>Emisi fosil CO2 berasal dari pembakaran dan penggunaan bahan bakar fosil (batu bara, minyak, dan gas bumi) serta produksi semen. Jika ditambahkan dengan angka pelepasan dan penyerapan emisi CO2 dari aspek alih fungsi lahan, seperti deforestasi dan reforestasi, kami menaksir aktivitas manusia akan mengeluarkan 40,9 miliar ton CO2 tahun ini. </p>
<p>Vegetasi dunia beserta laut memang terus menyerap sekitar separuh dari CO2 yang terlepas dari permukaan Bumi. Sisanya akan terperangkap di atmosfer kemudian meningkatkan pemanasan planet kita.</p>
<p>Dengan level emisi saat ini, dan dengan 50% kemungkinan, bujet karbon yang untuk membatasi suhu global 1,5°C akan habis dalam tujuh tahun, dan 15 tahun lagi akan mencapai 1,7°C. Inilah yang menyebabkan kebutuhan pemangkasan emisi saat ini menjadi amat darurat. </p>
<h2>Emisi dari sumber energi fosil terus naik</h2>
<p>Emisi CO2 dari sumber energi fosil saat ini mencapai 90% total emisi CO2 dari aktivitas manusia. Setiap sumber fosil mengalami kenaikan emisi dibanding tahun lalu:</p>
<ul>
<li>batu bara (41% dari emisi CO2 global) naik 1,1%</li>
<li>minyak bumi (32%) naik 1,5%</li>
<li>gas bumi (21%) naik 0,5%</li>
<li>semen (4%) naik 0,8%.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph showing emissions from fossil fuels, land-use changes and total emissions from 1960 to 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seluruh bahan bakar fosil mendong kenaikan emisi CO2.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Budget 2023/Global Carbon Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meskipun emisi global naik, gambaran setiap negara berbeda-beda. Ada beberapa yang menunjukkan kemajuannya dalam dekarbonisasi atau proses pengurangan emisi karbon.</p>
<p>Emisi dari Cina (31% dari total emisi global) naik 4% dengan peningkatan di seluruh sumber fosil. Pertumbuhan tertinggi berasal dari emisi minyak bumi. Kenaikan ini sebagian berasal dari pemulihan sektor transportasi yang sempat tiarap akibat pandemi COVID-19.</p>
<p>Di Amerika Serikat (14% dari total emisi global), emisi justru turun 3%. Usaha pensiun dini pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) mereka adalah penyebab terbesar pengurangan emisi. Emisi dari batu bara di AS mencapai titik terendah sejak 1903.</p>
<p>Sementara itu, emisi India (8% dari total emisi global) naik 8,2%. Emisi dari seluruh sumber fosil naik setidaknya 5% atau lebih, dengan kenaikan terbesar berasal dari batu bara (9,5%). India saat ini menjadi penyumbang emisi CO2 fosil terbesar ketiga di dunia.</p>
<p>Emisi dari Uni Eropa (7% dari total emisi global) turun 7,4%. Penurunan ini disumbang oleh cepatnya penetrasi energi terbarukan dan dampak pasokan energi akibat perang di Ukraina.</p>
<p>Di Indonesia, total emisi fosil CO2 melesat sebesar 18% pada 2022. Angka ini merupakan yang tertinggi selama 60 tahun terakhir. Cepatnya pertumbuhan sebagian terjadi karena usaha Indonesia memulihkan ekonomi pascapandemi. Sementara, sebagian lainnya adalah karena pertumbuhan pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) baru sehingga emisi CO2 dari batu bara naik pesat sebesar 33%.</p>
<p>Selama dekade 2013-2022, ada penurunan emisi fosil CO2 di 26 negara dan perekonomian mereka tetap bertumbuh. Beberapa di antaranya adalah Brasil, Prancis, Jerman, Italia, Jepang, Portugal, Rumania, Afrika Selatan, Inggris, dan AS. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Emissions by individual countries from 1960 to 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tren emisi fosil CO2 amat beragam. Ada beberapa yang mengalami kemajuan dalam proses dekarbonisasi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Budget 2023/Global Carbon Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Emisi CO2 nyaris mencapai puncak</h2>
<p>Saat emisi CO2 dari sumber fosil terus naik, emisi bersih dari aspek alih fungsi lahan seperti deforestasi (sumber emisi CO2) dikurangi penyerapan emisi dari reforestasi tampak berkurang. Walau begitu, perkiraan emisi dari alih fungsi lahan secara keseluruhan masih belum pasti dan kurang akurat dibandingkan emisi bahan bakar fosil.</p>
<p>Perkiraan awal kami menunjukkan emisi bersih dari alih fungsi lahan mencapai 4,1 miliar ton CO2 pada 2023. Emisi ini mengalami penurunan kecil tapi relatif tidak pasti selama dua dekade terakhir.</p>
<p>Tren penurunan terjadi karena berkurangnya deforestasi dan kenaikan tipis reforestasi. Penyumbang terbesarnya adalah Brasil, Indonesia, dan Republik Demokratik Kongo. Tiga negara ini menyumbang 55% dari emisi bersih CO2 global dari alih fungsi lahan.</p>
<p>Saat kami menggabungkan emisi CO2 dari aktivitas manusia (fosil dan penggunaan lahan), kami menemukan tren total emisi yang sangat kecil selama dekade terakhir. Jika hal ini benar, maka emisi CO₂ global dari aktivitas manusia tidak akan bertambah lagi, tapi tetap berada pada tingkat rekor yang sangat tinggi.</p>
<p>Emisi CO2 yang stabil dengan angka 41 miliar ton per tahun akan mempercepat akumulasi CO2 di atmosfer dan pemanasan iklim. Sementara, untuk menstabilkan iklim, emisi CO2 dari aktivitas manusia harus mencapai ke titik nol atau <em>net zero</em>. Artinya, setiap CO2 yang terlepaskan harus ditebus dengan penyerapan CO2.</p>
<h2>Alam sangat menolong, dengan sedikit kontribusi manusia</h2>
<p>Vegetasi di daratan dan lautan menyerap separuh dari total emisi CO2. Porsi ini, ajaibnya, tetap stabil selama enam dekade belakangan.</p>
<p>Selain penyerapan CO2 secara alami, manusia juga menyerap CO2 dari atmosfer dengan usaha mereka sendiri. Kami memperkirakan reforestasi permanen ataupun aforestasi (penanaman di luar hutan) selama satu dekade terakhir membantu penyerapan 1,9 miliar ton CO2 per tahun.</p>
<p>Angka tersebut setara 5% dari emisi bahan bakar fosil per tahun.</p>
<p>Sementara itu, kontribusi dari upaya penyerapan CO2 non-vegetasi lainnya masih kecil. angka nya sekitar 0,01 juta ton CO2.</p>
<p>Mesin (penangkapan dan penyimpanan karbon langsung dari atmosfer) berhasil menarik 0,007 juta ton CO2. Proyek pelapukan batuan yang ditingkatkan (<em>enhanced weathering project</em>), untuk mempercepat proses pelapukan alami agar meningkatkan serapan CO₂ dengan menyebarkan mineral tertentu, menyumbang 0,004 juta ton lainnya. Jumlah ini sejuta kali lebih kecil dibandingkan emisi bahan bakar fosil saat ini.</p>
<h2>Bujet karbon tersisa</h2>
<p>Sejak Januari 2024, bujet karbon tersisa untuk membatasi pemanasan global 1,5°C (dengan 50% kemungkinan) sudah berkurang ke 275 miliar CO2. Bujet ini kemungkinan akan habis terpakai dalam tujuh tahun jika kita merujuk pada tingkat emisi 2023.</p>
<p>Bujet karbon untuk membatasi pemanasan 1,7°C juga berkurang ke 625 miliar ton CO2, alias setara 15 tahun lagi jika kita mengacu ke tren emisi saat ini. Bujet agar suhu Bumi di bawah 2°C adalah 1.150 miliar ton CO2–atau 28 tahun lagi. </p>
<p>Pencapaian <em>net zero</em> pada 2050 membutuhkan pengurangan emisi CO2 dari aktivitas manusia ke rata-rata 1,5 miliar ton CO2 per tahun. Angka ini hampir setara dengan berkurangnya emisi 2020 akibat berbagai pembatasan saat pandemi (di bawah 2 miliar ton CO2).</p>
<p>Tanpa tambahan emisi negatif dari penyerapan CO2, penurunan emisi secara langsung mulai saat ini hingga 2050 (saat banyak negara berambisi mencapai <em>net zero</em> CO2 ataupun gas rumah kaca lainnya) akan tetap membuat suhu permukaan rata-rata global menghangat sebesar 1,7°C, melampaui batas 1,5°C.</p>
<p>Produksi energi terbarukan kini mencapai rekor tertinggi dan berkembang pesat. Karena itu, untuk membatasi perubahan fosil dan penggunaan lahan akibat perubahan iklim, emisi CO₂ harus dikurangi lebih cepat supaya pada akhirnya kita bisa mencapai kondisi nol emisi.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell menerima dana dari Program Ilmu Lingkungan Nasional - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré menerima dana dari program penelitian dan inovasi Horizon 2020 Uni Eropa berdasarkan perjanjian hibah No. 821003 (4C), dari Dewan Penelitian Lingkungan Alam PBB di bawah hibah NE/V011103/1 (Frontiers), dan dari Royal Society Inggris di bawah hibah hibah RP\R1\191063 (Profesor Penelitian). Corinne Le Quéré Mengetuai Dewan Tinggi Perancis untuk Perubahan Iklim dan merupakan anggota Komite Perubahan Iklim Inggris. Posisinya di sini adalah miliknya sendiri dan tidak mencerminkan posisi kelompok tersebut.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Peters menerima dana dari program penelitian dan inovasi Horizon 2020 Uni Eropa berdasarkan perjanjian hibah No. 821003 (4C) dan 958927 (CoCO2), dan perjanjian hibah Horizon Europe No 101056306 (IAM COMPACT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Hauck menerima dana penelitian dari Asosiasi Helmholtz, Komisi Eropa, dan Kementerian Sains dan Pendidikan Jerman (BMBF). Dia berafiliasi dengan Alfred Wegener Institute, Pusat Penelitian Kutub dan Kelautan Helmholtz.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Pongratz menerima dana dari Kementerian Pendidikan dan Penelitian Jerman (BMBF) dalam program CDRterra dan dari proyek Horizon Europe ForestNavigator dan RESCUE.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippe Ciais menerima dana dari BNP Paribas Foundation (hadiah filantropis untuk Global Carbon Altas), proyek yang didanai 4C EU Horizon2020, dan proyek Inisiatif Perubahan Iklim Badan Antariksa Eropa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Friedlingstein menerima dana dari program penelitian dan inovasi Horizon 2020 Uni Eropa berdasarkan perjanjian hibah No. 821003 (4C)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbie Andrew menerima dana untuk program penelitian dan inovasi Horizon 2020 Uni Eropa berdasarkan perjanjian hibah No. 821003 (4C) dan 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Jackson menerima dana dari CA Energy Commission, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, UNEP, dan HT LLC.</span></em></p>Kencangnya laju emisi mengurangi jatah CO2 yang bisa kita lepaskan untuk membatasi suhu Bumi 1,5°C. Dengan tingkat emisi saat ini, bujet karbon kita tersisa 7 tahun lagi.Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaGlen Peters, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloJudith Hauck, Helmholtz Young Investigator group leader and deputy head, Marine Biogeosciences section a Alfred Wegener Institute, Universität BremenJulia Pongratz, Professor of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems, Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichPhilippe Ciais, Directeur de recherche au Laboratoire des science du climat et de l’environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of ExeterRobbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloRob Jackson, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2192072023-12-08T12:27:01Z2023-12-08T12:27:01ZErotic Vagrancy: Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor biography revels in scandal and excess of Hollywood glamour couple<p><a href="https://www.waterstones.com/author/roger-lewis/136946">Roger Lewis’s biographies</a> are always rich, wayward, engrossing, idiosyncratic and above all obsessive, which seems entirely fitting for evoking the particular qualities of his latest subject – the celebrity couple to end them all, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Richard-Burton-Welsh-actor">Richard Burton</a> and <a href="https://www.biography.com/actors/elizabeth-taylor">Elizabeth Taylor</a>.</p>
<p>Lewis’s substantial <a href="https://www.waterstones.com/book/erotic-vagrancy/roger-lewis/9780857381729">new book</a>, Erotic Vagrancy: Everything About Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor, takes its title from a phrase used in a <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/usshowbiz/article-12078923/Burton-Taylors-scandal-soaked-affair-epic-Cleopatra.html">papal condemnation</a> of the couple when their affair began during the making of 20th Century Fox’s epic 1963 film <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jun/12/cleopatra-60th-anniversary-elizabeth-taylor-richard-burton">Cleopatra</a> in Rome. This served to emphasise the atmosphere of notoriety that surrounded Taylor and Burton’s relationship throughout its 20-year duration.</p>
<p>It also suggests the way they represented a new (and to the Vatican, unwelcome) approach to sexual and romantic conduct. Previous marriages were dispensed with in pursuit of this electric, ecstatic new coupling. The media pursued the couple as they criss-crossed the world on private jets and luxury yachts, hoovering up enormous diamonds and other expensive trinkets along the way.</p>
<p>But the vision of love Taylor and Burton represented was far from sweetness and light. Instead, it seems to have been a prolonged struggle of can’t-live-with, can’t-live-without, characterised by drunken arguments and bitter recrimination. The couple’s films then replayed and remixed it for duly fascinated paying cinema customers – most famously in 1966’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2016/sep/18/whos-afraid-of-virginia-woolf-edward-albee">Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?</a></p>
<h2>Jet-set celebrity glamour</h2>
<p>Lewis suggests the couple were at the vanguard of contemporary celebrity culture, while also taking care to frame them as creatures of their time – members of a long-vanished glamorous jet-set whose 1960s and ’70s haunts have all but disappeared. Lewis describes his undimmed and even growing affection for his subjects in spite of – or perhaps because of – their shameless bad behaviour, from very public fights to unfulfilled charitable promises.</p>
<p>Their love and its emotional maelstrom undoubtedly inflicted enormous harm, on others as well as themselves. And its narcissistic showiness, writ in priceless jewels and ardent gestures across a global stage, was vulgar. However, Lewis offers an incisive deconstruction and defence of vulgarity as a human quality, reframing the couple’s outrageous extravagance as a generosity of spirit, living large and leaning into their role as collective fantasy figures.</p>
<p>And he loves their films, especially the egregious flops and off-kilter experiments like <a href="https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/boom-1968">Boom!</a> (1968), <a href="https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/hammersmith-is-out-1972">Hammersmith Is Out</a> (1972) and <a href="https://screenbound.co.uk/divorce-his-divorce-hers/">Divorce His / Divorce Hers</a> (1973), discerning in their bizarre contours a fever dream of the couple’s romance.</p>
<h2>Myths and spells</h2>
<p>Burton’s journey was the more extraordinary of the two: from Welsh working-class impoverishment to full movie mega-stardom, by way of his prodigious charisma as a young actor. Lewis alleges Burton’s schoolmaster svengali and adoptive father had less than honourable intentions towards his ward, but he was the facilitator of Burton’s longed-for exit from the valleys.</p>
<p>No wonder Burton nursed a longstanding fascination with the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20170907-what-the-myth-of-faust-can-teach-us">Faust legend</a>, feeling he had sold his soul to the devil to attain worldly glory, including “the face that launched a thousand ships” in the form of the beautiful Taylor – who played the Helen of Troy role opposite her husband’s Faustus in <a href="https://kultguyskeep.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/doctor-faustus-1967-film-review/">Burton’s 1967 screen adaptation</a> of Christopher Marlowe’s play.</p>
<p>Lewis appears to identify slightly more with the Welshman’s dark moods than he does the dramas of the divine Elizabeth, a pampered princess and movie star from childhood. He is in thrall to the idea of Taylor as witch, casting a spell over Burton.</p>
<p>Lewis uses Kingsley Amis’s phrasing to characterise the star as “a wrapped-up-in-herself female” and wonders aloud if women are “generally less rational, more instinctive and immediate, than your males”. To which one can only respond: hogwash. Hogwash that depends on completely ignoring what an irrational mystic Burton seems to have been, continually invoking his alchemical mythic origin as a figure created in the bowels of the Welsh earth.</p>
<p>This is not a feminist book – there is a broadside against “rubbishy academic tracts by frightening feminists” in the author’s opening remarks on the existing Burton-Taylor literature. Lewis acknowledges the physical abuse Taylor suffered at the hands of her first husband, Nicky Hilton, while she was still in her teens, but quibbles over the dates of the pregnancy she says she miscarried after being beaten by him – not a good look.</p>
<p>He goes on to suggest that many of the actress’s subsequent health problems were psychosomatic or self-inflicted, or just simple malingering. But thankfully, these potentially misogynistic notes are counterbalanced by other moments of empathy and insight. There is full-throated celebration of Taylor, especially as she aged and gained weight, as an unruly woman who refused to adhere to the template of feminine probity and modesty. Her greed – for love, adventure, sex, food, excitement, wealth, beauty – is not censured but saluted.</p>
<p>Erotic Vagrancy is packed with details that not only make you pause and gasp, but which penetrate the core of what it means to be famous, or infamous, and in love.</p>
<p>And its wit makes it sparkle and glitter like one of Taylor’s extravagant diamonds – coruscating in the true sense of the word. The research and writing has clearly been a labour of love for Lewis, and the result is a lovingly all-encompassing celebrity biography which interrogates both celebrity and biography as concepts.</p>
<p>But it does so with levity and personality, always wearing its learning and its eloquence lightly. To invoke the title of a <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/goings-on-about-town/movies/magnificent-obsession">film starring one of Taylor’s pals, Rock Hudson</a>, this book is the result of a “magnificent obsession” with Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor, and all the better for it.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/something-good-156">Sign up here</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The scandal that engulfed the tempestuous couple from the beginning fed a media and public obsession that lasted for the rest of their lives.Melanie Williams, Professor of Film and Television Studies, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191332023-12-05T07:23:24Z2023-12-05T07:23:24ZLes émissions de CO₂ d’origine fossile ont atteint un nouveau record en 2023<p>Les émissions mondiales de dioxyde de carbone (CO<sub>2</sub>) d’origine fossile augmenteront de 1,1 % en 2023, les portant au niveau record de 36,8 milliards de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub>. C’est la conclusion du 18<sup>e</sup> rapport annuel du <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Project</a> sur l’état du <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/">budget carbone mondial</a>, que nous avons publié aujourd’hui.</p>
<p>Le CO<sub>2</sub> d’origine fossile comprend les émissions provenant de la combustion et de l’utilisation des énergies fossiles (charbon, pétrole et gaz) et de la production de ciment. Si l’on tient également compte des émissions et des retraits de CO<sub>2</sub> liés au changement d’affectation des terres, comme la <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/deforestation-23274">déforestation</a> et la <a href="https://theconversation.com/face-au-rechauffement-climatique-la-reforestation-nest-quune-partie-de-la-solution-121060">reforestation</a>, les activités humaines devraient même émettre 40,9 milliards de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub> en 2023.</p>
<p>La végétation et les océans continuent d’absorber <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-co-une-histoire-au-long-cours-chamboulee-par-les-societes-industrielles-111715">environ la moitié de toutes les émissions de CO₂</a>, mais le reste s’accumule dans l’atmosphère et provoque un réchauffement croissant de la planète.</p>
<p><em>[Plus de 85 000 lecteurs font confiance aux newsletters de The Conversation pour mieux comprendre les grands enjeux du monde. <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=france&region=fr">Abonnez-vous aujourd’hui</a>]</em></p>
<p>Au niveau actuel des émissions de CO<sub>2</sub>, le <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-the-tiny-remaining-1-5c-carbon-budget-means-for-climate-policy/">budget carbone</a> restant pour avoir une probabilité de 50 % de limiter le réchauffement à 1,5 °C sera probablement dépassé dans sept ans. Pour 1,7 °C, elle le sera dans 15 ans. Il n’a jamais été aussi urgent de réduire nos émissions.</p>
<h2>Toutes les émissions fossiles sont en hausse</h2>
<p>Les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> d’origine fossile représentent aujourd’hui environ 90 % de toutes des émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> dues aux activités humaines. Les émissions de chaque source fossile ont augmenté cette année par rapport à 2022 :</p>
<ul>
<li><p>charbon (qui représente 41 % des émissions mondiales de CO<sub>2</sub>) : en hausse de 1,1 %</p></li>
<li><p>pétrole (32 %) : +1,5 %</p></li>
<li><p>gaz naturel (21 %) : +0,5 %.</p></li>
<li><p>le ciment (4 %) : + 0,8 %.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphique montrant les émissions provenant des combustibles fossiles, des changements d’affectation des sols et les émissions totales de 1960 à 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561807/original/file-20231127-21-qxh34e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Les énergies fossiles sont à l’origine de l’augmentation des émissions totales de CO₂.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Budget 2023/Global Carbon Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bien que les émissions mondiales aient augmenté, la situation est assez différente d’un pays à l’autre : il y a quelques signes de progrès vers la décarbonisation.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Les émissions de la Chine (31 % du total mondial) ont augmenté de 4 %, avec une croissance de toutes les énergies fossiles. La croissance relative la plus élevée a été enregistrée pour les émissions liées au pétrole. Cela s’explique en partie par la reprise du secteur des transports après les arrêts dus à la pandémie de Covid-19.</p></li>
<li><p>Les émissions des États-Unis (14 % des émissions mondiales) ont diminué de 3 %. La mise hors service accélérée des centrales électriques à charbon est à l’origine de la majeure partie de cette baisse. Les émissions de charbon des États-Unis sont les plus faibles depuis 1903.</p></li>
<li><p>Les émissions de l’Inde (8 % du total) ont augmenté de 8,2 %. Les émissions de toutes les énergies fossiles ont augmenté de 5 % ou plus, le charbon étant la plus importante (9,5 %). L’Inde est désormais le troisième plus grand émetteur de CO<sub>2</sub> fossile au monde.</p></li>
<li><p>Les émissions de l’Union européenne (7 % des émissions mondiales) ont diminué de 7,4 %. Cette baisse est à la fois liée à la progression des énergies renouvelables et aux conséquences de la guerre en Ukraine sur l’approvisionnement en énergie.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Au cours de la décennie 2013-2022, 26 pays ont vu leurs émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> d’origine fossile diminuer alors que leur économie continuait de croître. La liste comprend le Brésil, la France, l’Allemagne, l’Italie, le Japon, le Portugal, la Roumanie, l’Afrique du Sud, le Royaume-Uni et les États-Unis.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Émissions par pays de 1960 à 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561808/original/file-20231127-25-kn1l9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Les performances des différents pays varient considérablement, mais il y a des signes de progrès vers la décarbonisation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Budget 2023/Global Carbon Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Le pic des émissions de CO₂ est proche</h2>
<p>Alors que les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> d’origine fossile continuent d’augmenter, les émissions nettes dues au changement d’affectation des terres (telles que la déforestation), après déduction de l’effet des <a href="https://theconversation.com/que-sont-les-puits-de-carbone-et-comment-peuvent-ils-contribuer-a-la-neutralite-carbone-en-france-201420">puits de carbone</a>, notamment joué par les forêts, semble en baisse. Toutefois, les estimations des émissions dues au changement d’affectation des terres sont très incertaines et moins précises que celles des émissions dues aux énergies fossiles.</p>
<p>Selon notre estimation préliminaire, les émissions nettes dues au changement d’affectation des terres s’élèvent à 4,1 milliards de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub> en 2023. Ces émissions font suite à une baisse légère mais relativement incertaine au cours des deux dernières décennies.</p>
<p>La tendance à la baisse est liée à la diminution de la déforestation et à une légère augmentation de la reforestation. Les plus gros émetteurs sont le Brésil, l’Indonésie et la République démocratique du Congo. Ces trois pays contribuent à 55 % des émissions mondiales nettes de CO<sub>2</sub> dues au changement d’affectation des terres.</p>
<p>Lorsque nous combinons toutes les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> provenant des activités humaines (fossiles et utilisation des sols), nous observons que les émissions totales ont très peu évolué au cours de la dernière décennie. Si cela se confirme, cela signifierait que les émissions mondiales de CO<sub>2</sub> dues aux activités humaines n’augmentent plus, mais restent à des niveaux records très élevés.</p>
<p>Or, des émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> stables, de l’ordre de 41 milliards de tonnes par an, entraîneront une accumulation rapide et continue de CO<sub>2</sub> dans l’atmosphère et un réchauffement du climat. Pour stabiliser le climat, les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> provenant des activités humaines doivent atteindre le net zéro. Cela signifie que toute émission résiduelle de CO<sub>2</sub> doit être compensée par une élimination équivalente de CO<sub>2</sub>.</p>
<h2>La planète plus efficace que la technologie pour capturer le carbone</h2>
<p>La végétation terrestre et les océans absorbent environ la moitié de toutes les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub>. Cette fraction est restée remarquablement stable pendant six décennies.</p>
<p>Outre les puits naturels de CO<sub>2</sub>, l’homme élimine également du CO<sub>2</sub> de l’atmosphère par des activités délibérées. Nous estimons que la reforestation permanente et l’afforestation au cours de la dernière décennie ont éliminé environ 1,9 milliard de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub> par an.</p>
<p>Cela équivaut à 5 % des émissions annuelles liées aux énergies fossiles.</p>
<p>Les autres stratégies basées sur autre chose que la végétation n’en sont qu’à leurs balbutiements. Elles ont permis d’éliminer 0,01 million de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub>.</p>
<p>Les machines de <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-capture-et-le-stockage-du-carbone-comment-ca-marche-192673">capture et de stockage du carbone</a> dans l’air ont extrait 0,007 million de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub> de l’atmosphère. Les projets d’altération forcée (<em>enhanced weathering</em>), qui accélèrent les processus naturels d’altération grâce à l’épandage de certains minéraux qui fixent le CO<sub>2</sub>, représentent les 0,004 million de tonnes restantes. Ce chiffre est plus d’un million de fois inférieur aux émissions actuelles des combustibles fossiles.</p>
<h2>Le budget carbone restant</h2>
<p>À partir de janvier 2024, le budget carbone restant pour avoir 50 % de probabilité de limiter le réchauffement climatique à 1,5 °C a été réduit à 275 milliards de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub>. Au niveau d’émission de 2023, ce budget sera épuisé en sept ans.</p>
<p>Le budget carbone pour limiter le réchauffement à 1,7 °C a été ramené à 625 milliards de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub>, ce qui laisse 15 ans avant l’échéance au niveau des émissions en 2023. Le budget pour rester en dessous de 2 °C, enfin, est de 1 150 milliards de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub> – soit un délai de 28 ans au niveau actuel des émissions.</p>
<p>Pour atteindre le niveau zéro d’ici à 2050, les émissions totales de CO<sub>2</sub> liées aux activités humaines doivent diminuer en moyenne de 1,5 milliard de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub> par an. Ce chiffre est comparable à la <a href="https://theconversation.com/avec-le-Covid-19-une-decrue-historique-des-emissions-mondiales-de-co-est-amorcee-133975">baisse des émissions en 2020 résultant des mesures Covid-19</a>, soit environ 2 milliards de tonnes de CO<sub>2</sub> en moins.</p>
<p>Sans émissions négatives supplémentaires pour retirer du CO<sub>2</sub> de l’atmosphère, une ligne droite qui relierait les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> du niveau actuel jusqu’à l’objectif de 2050 – date à laquelle de nombreux pays aspirent à atteindre la cible de zéro émissions nettes – conduirait malgré tout à une température moyenne à la surface du globe de 1,7 °C, dépassant la limite de 1,5 °C.</p>
<p>La production d’énergie renouvelable a atteint un niveau record et croît rapidement. Pour limiter le changement climatique et le changement d’affectation des terres, les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> doivent être réduites beaucoup plus rapidement et, à terme, atteindre le niveau zéro.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell a reçu des financements du Programme national des sciences de l'environnement - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinne Le Quéré a reçu des financements du programme de recherche et d'innovation Horizon 2020 de l'Union européenne dans le cadre de la convention de subvention n° 821003 (4C), du Conseil de recherche sur l'environnement naturel des Nations Unies sous la subvention NE/V011103/1 (Frontiers), et de la Royal Society du Royaume-Uni sous subvention RP\R1\191063 (Professeur de recherche). Corinne Le Quéré préside le Haut Conseil français pour le climat et est membre du Comité britannique sur le changement climatique. Sa position ici est la sienne et ne reflète pas nécessairement celle de ces groupes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Peters a reçu des financements du programme de recherche et d'innovation Horizon 2020 de l'Union européenne dans le cadre des conventions de subvention n° 821003 (4C) et 958927 (CoCO2) et de la convention de subvention Horizon Europe n° 101056306 (IAM COMPACT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Hauck a reçu des financements de recherche de l'association Helmholtz, de la Commission européenne et du ministère allemand des sciences et de l'éducation (BMBF). Elle est affiliée à l'Institut Alfred Wegener et au Centre Helmholtz pour la recherche polaire et marine.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Pongratz a reçu des financements du ministère allemand de l'Éducation et de la Recherche (BMBF) dans le cadre du programme CDRterra et des projets Horizon Europe ForestNavigator et RESCUE.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippe Ciais a reçu des financements de la Fondation BNP Paribas (don philanthropique pour le Global Carbon Altas), du projet financé par 4C EU Horizon2020 et du projet Climate Change Initiative de l'Agence spatiale européenne.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Friedlingstein a reçu des financements du programme de recherche et d'innovation Horizon 2020 de l'Union européenne dans le cadre de la convention de subvention n° 821003 (4C).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbie Andrew a reçu des financements du programme de recherche et d'innovation Horizon 2020 de l'Union européenne dans le cadre des accords de subvention n° 821003 (4C) et 958927 (CoCO2).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Jackson a reçu des financements de la CA Energy Commission, de la Fondation Gordon et Betty Moore, du PNUE et de HT LLC.</span></em></p>Les quantités de CO₂ que nous pouvons encore émettre tout en respectant l’objectif de l’accord de Paris se réduisent à une peau de chagrin : au rythme de 2023, nous aurons épuisé ce budget carbone dans sept ans.Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROCorinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East AngliaGlen Peters, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloJudith Hauck, Helmholtz Young Investigator group leader and deputy head, Marine Biogeosciences section a Alfred Wegener Institute, Universität BremenJulia Pongratz, Professor of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems, Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichPhilippe Ciais, Directeur de recherche au Laboratoire des science du climat et de l’environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of ExeterRobbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - OsloRob Jackson, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.