tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-glasgow-1269/articlesThe University of Glasgow2024-03-20T16:35:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254382024-03-20T16:35:47Z2024-03-20T16:35:47ZPeat Bog Soldiers: how an experimental Scottish band contributed to a concentration camp archive in Germany<p>Can a rock band make history? Not in the sense of releasing bestselling records, being garlanded with awards, or achieving notoriety through more controversial means. But rather, can a rock band actually <em>make</em> “History” with a capital H?</p>
<p>Song has always been a medium through which popular tales of the past have been recounted. Scotland, for example, has a strong tradition of folk songs dealing with historical events and figures that have indelibly marked the country.</p>
<p>These range from <a href="https://presserfoundation.org/researching-gaelic-songs-in-the-scottish-highlands/">Gaelic songs</a> about the devastating injustices of the Highland Clearances, to songs about the life of Glasgow’s most famous <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9020kjy51xo">Red Clydesider John Maclean</a>, who fought for workers’ rights during and just after the first world war.</p>
<p>So songs might well be regarded as popular history. But what if we flipped the initial question around: can history be made by a rock band? If we gathered their songs, their videos, their own words about their music, their artwork, how would it measure up against the standard output of the professional academic historian? It would certainly look, sound and feel different. But what might be lost in shifting into this new terrain? And what, if anything, might be gained?</p>
<p>These are some of the questions being explored by <a href="https://osf.io/uh2ga/">The Tenementals</a>, a Glasgow-based group of academics, artists, musicians and filmmakers, of which I am a founding member. As a professor of political cinemas with a longstanding interest in radical history and its expression in cultural form, my work looks at ways to recount radical pasts. The city of Glasgow, with its own radical past, offers a useful test case.</p>
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<p>We have been recording a series of songs that explore Glasgow’s political history, from the <a href="https://glasgowdoorsopenday.com/event/the-1820-radical-war/">Sighthill Martyrs of 1820</a>, to the <a href="https://womenssuffragescotland.wordpress.com/main-sections/suffrage-militancy-in-scotland/">militant suffragettes</a> of the early 20th century. This work spotlights the city’s reputation for protest, interrogates its ongoing entanglements with <a href="https://glasgow.gov.uk/slaverylegacy">empire and slavery</a>, and speculates on where one might find hope in the city. </p>
<p>The Tenementals is a “wild” research project which has one foot in higher education, and one foot in the city’s vibrant music scene. It is wild for a few reasons: it is largely unfunded, it moves to its own beat, and it operates outside higher education’s regulatory frameworks. </p>
<h2>Anti-fascist anthem</h2>
<p>One aspect of this wildness is that it is free to go where it has to go. When The Tenementals played a strikers’ benefit gig last year, we wanted to perform a song beyond our normal repertoire. We opted for the classic German anti-fascist anthem, Die Moorsoldaten (The Peat Bog Soldiers), which was <a href="https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/the-birth-and-long-life-of-peat-bog-soldiers-on-its-90th-anniversary/">written and first performed</a> in Börgermoor concentration camp in north-west Germany, by left-wing political prisoners in August 1933.</p>
<p>Banned from singing traditional protest songs, the Börgermoor prisoners created a six-verse song that recounted their daily experiences. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Up and down the sentries pacing<br>
No one, no one can get past<br>
Flight for freedom is sure death-dealing<br>
Fenced-in castle holds us fast</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A simple chorus separates the verses.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are the Peat Bog Soldiers<br>
marching with our spades to the moor</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A sense of defiance emerges as the verses build and it culminates in a new final chorus line:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Then, the Peat Bog Soldiers<br>
No more will march with our spades to the moor.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The song is (seemingly) simple, rhythmic and memorable. It became well known in German opposition circles, and was taken up as an anthem by the <a href="https://international-brigades.org.uk/uncategorized/international-brigade-memorial-trust/">International Brigades</a> during the Spanish Civil War. It was also was sung by the Free French Army during the second world war as a message of resistance in the darkest of times. </p>
<p>Although the song has been covered by many English-speaking artists, including Pete Seeger, Paul Robeson and Irish band-of-the-moment, Lankum, it remains relatively unknown in Britain. </p>
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<p>We asked a young Scots-German singer, Lily-Belle Mohaupt, to lead us on the night of our gig. She sang it so beautifully that we decided to record two versions: one in a new translation by ourselves, sung in English and German, and one completely in German, the full six-verse version which is rarely performed or recorded.</p>
<h2>A new connection, another history</h2>
<p>After we released the song, we were surprised to be contacted by Fietje Ausländer, former archivist at the <a href="https://www.komoot.com/highlight/603806">Documentation and Information Centre of Emsland Camps</a> (one of which was Börgermoor) in Germany, a few kilometres from the site where the song was first performed.</p>
<p>Ausländer explained the centre’s purpose is to archive materials related to the history of 15 labour and punishment camps, and that due to its national and international fame, Die Moorsoldaten has become one of the archive’s focal points. </p>
<p>Our version of the song – which includes a CD recording, a video and artwork from the promotional campaign – is now to be archived alongside other versions of the protest song which Emsland archivists have amassed over the years. One of our versions will also be included in a CD of the archive’s favourite covers scheduled for release in 2025.</p>
<p>The CD seeks to introduce the song to new audiences, illustrating the philosopher Jacques Derrida’s assertion that “archives are for the future”. These archives of radical activity create a space for solidarity between generations to develop – a place in which artists, academics and activists in the present converse with the ghosts of the past and those yet to discover these histories in the future. It is a privilege to be part of the conversation.</p>
<p>Although we set out to create a history of radical Glasgow in song, we find ourselves a small part of another history, one which sought in similar ways to fight against injustice. Our interests, though, like the prisoners who sang Die Moorsoldaten on 27 August 1933, lie in carving out radical futures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Archibald is a founding member, songwriter and singer with The Tenementals. For this work he has received funding from Creative Scotland and Glasgow City Heritage Trust.</span></em></p>A radical research project in Scotland has created a new layer of history for a concentration camp archive in Germany.David Archibald, Professor of Political Cinemas, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236982024-03-18T17:08:03Z2024-03-18T17:08:03ZThe UK government is using private tech companies to deliver public funds to asylum seekers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580124/original/file-20240306-26-4saaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Asylum seekers are brought ashore after being rescued at sea by Border Force in Dover, Kent, in September 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dover-kent-uk-22nd-september-2022-2205152061">Sean Aidan Calderbank|Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-counts-as-a-refugee-four-questions-to-understand-current-migration-debates-219735">asylum seekers</a> arrive in the UK, they are not eligible for benefits. Those who do not have anywhere else to live are provided with government-funded housing. Those who are not able to <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64edefc56bc96d000d4ed1ef/Assessing_destitution.pdf">meet essential needs</a> can access basic Home Office funds to cover food, clothing and toiletries. </p>
<p>The sums in question are paltry. As of December 2023, asylum seekers housed in self-catering facilities are given <a href="https://www.gov.uk/asylum-support/what-youll-get">£49.18</a> per week, per person. Those housed in hotels get £8.86. </p>
<p>Private tech companies are increasingly encroaching on the delivery of public funds to vulnerable people. These are distributed via a prepayment system called the Asylum Support Enablement (Aspen) card, provided by Prepaid Financial Services (PFS, a subsidiary of EML Payments Ltd).</p>
<p>This is the same technology used by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees’ refugee cash assistance programme in Greece. Research there has shown that it restricts asylum seekers’ mobility and constrains <a href="https://research.gold.ac.uk/id/eprint/26694/1/IPS-Tazzioli.pdf">what they can purchase</a>. </p>
<p>We have found similar patterns in the UK. Our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369183X.2024.2312249">recent study</a> shows this technology isolates asylum seekers from networks of financial support, compounding their already precarious financial situation. It also restricts their consumption habits, and enables the government to collect their personal purchasing data. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protestors hold up posters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580123/original/file-20240306-20-jly07k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580123/original/file-20240306-20-jly07k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580123/original/file-20240306-20-jly07k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580123/original/file-20240306-20-jly07k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580123/original/file-20240306-20-jly07k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580123/original/file-20240306-20-jly07k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580123/original/file-20240306-20-jly07k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Restrictive payment systems are part of how the hostile environment is created.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/morton-halllincolnshireuk-january-20th-2018-eighty-1277329108">Ian Francis|Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>A restrictive system</h2>
<p>Over the spring and summer of 2021, we analysed policy papers, legal reports, web pages and <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/advocacy/4788/uk-home-office-finally-responds-our-questions-about-surveillance-aspen-card-users">government Freedom of Information Act correspondence</a> related to the Aspen card.</p>
<p>We also undertook qualitative interviews and focus groups with 21 participants (all anonymised in our paper, and all based in <a href="https://migrationscotland.org.uk/policyarea/asylum-dispersal/">Glasgow</a>). These included asylum seekers who were Aspen cardholders, refugees who had used such cards in the past, and NGO staff who supported asylum seekers. We also interviewed staff at PFS.</p>
<p>As a funds management system, the Aspen card is highly restrictive. You can only use it to buy <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a8bf2a9e5274a2e87dc4057/section-4_1_-handling-transitional-cases-v1.0ext.pdf">food and other essential items</a>, mainly from the supermarkets that will accept it. Only asylum seekers whose asylum application is pending can use it to withdraw cash.</p>
<p>The card cannot be used for internet shopping. At the time of our study in 2021, it could be used for contactless payments, but that is no longer the case. Friends or family cannot add money to it and you cannot transfer money to other accounts from it. </p>
<p>Our interviewees told us it often does not work in independent shops including charity shops, cheap clothing stores, halal butchers and African food stores. As a result, they said that in Glasgow, asylum seekers often struggle to buy the warm clothing needed to manage the cold Scottish climate. They also find it difficult to access foods that suit their cultural and religious needs. </p>
<p>The Aspen card is fluorescent orange, which makes its users highly visible in public spaces – potentially exposing them to abuse. Further, in enabling the surveillance of people’s purchasing habits, the card breaches asylum seekers’ right to privacy. Our interviewees told us it makes them afraid of how their patterns of consumption might affect their right to asylum. </p>
<h2>A highly unreliable system</h2>
<p>Above all, the card often does not work. Our interviewees told us about people suddenly being left unable to withdraw money, sometimes for months at a time. As one asylum seeker explained: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The first time it happened, I went to the machine on Monday to withdraw the money, and it was telling me I had £70-something in there – but zero balance to withdraw. And I was like … I just got here, I’ve not even used the card! How is it possible that I don’t have any money to withdraw?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Home Office has contracted organisations including the charity Migrant Help and housing management company Mears to support asylum seekers with such problems. However, more often that not, they are being left to deal with these issues alone. Another asylum seeker explained: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For close to eight months, I was not receiving the complete money. But I don’t have anywhere to go, because even if you call Migrant Help or you phone Mears or the Home Office, they will not give a response to you. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Of the 16 asylum seekers we spoke with, 13 had experienced a malfunctioning card, as had their friends. The stress of relying on such an unpredictable system only compounds the extremely low level of support these people have access to in the first place.</p>
<p>At the time of our research in 2021, the UK government was giving asylum seekers around £35 per week, per person. While this has since <a href="https://www.gov.uk/asylum-support/what-youll-get">increased to £49.18</a>, such severely limited funds make it practically impossible for people to fully cover their needs, let alone save any money. </p>
<p>When a card stops working, asylum seekers are left completely destitute. Mothers are unable to buy food, nappies or toiletries. One person with a young toddler was left for five weeks without income. When their housing officer eventually told them that emergency support would be granted, they were given just over an hour to collect it. </p>
<p>When questioned about these findings, Mears referred The Conversation to the Home Office. A spokesperson for Migrant Help said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In instances of challenges with Aspen cards, we facilitate raising the issue to the attention of the payment provider, and strive to offer guidance and assistance. However, it’s crucial to note that we can’t resolve issues of this nature, as that is the responsibility of the payment provider contracted by the Home Office.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A Home Office spokesperson said: “We take the welfare of all asylum seekers very seriously, which is why we provide a weekly allowance to those who would otherwise be destitute through our Aspen card system. There are no restrictions on asylum seekers using the monetary provision to make purchases from retail outlets or withdraw cash from an ATM to buy food.”</p>
<p>The government says it records people’s use of the Aspen card, and may investigate if there are safeguarding concerns or potential breaches of the conditions of support to which the recipients have agreed (to prevent fraud). </p>
<p>Despite this, many of the interviewees we spoke with were unaware of the terms and conditions applicable to use of this card. Furthermore, precisely because they are destitute, asylum seekers have no choice but to accept whatever terms and conditions those might be. </p>
<h2>A tool of surveillance and control</h2>
<p>Prior to contracting PFS, the Home Office had reportedly <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/digitaliberties/big-brother-says-no-surveillance-and-income-management-of-asylum-seekers-through-the-uk-aspen-card/">spent around £84 million</a> on the previous card system, supplied by Sodexo. We estimate that between January <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-spending-over-25000-2020">2020</a> and December <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-spending-over-25000-2021">2021</a>, it then spent over £198 million on the PFS system. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-spending-over-25000-2020">Home Office spending data</a> shows most of this expenditure was attributed to an item labelled “cash support”. Although not explicitly stated, this is likely to refer to the emergency cash support given to asylum seekers when their Aspen card is not working. The documents show that instances of this charge spiked following the contract handover to PFS, which saw <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/02/thousands-of-asylum-seekers-go-hungry-after-cash-card-problems">thousands of asylum seekers</a> left without financial support.</p>
<p>This is concerning, not least because PFS is a preferred supplier for prepaid cards across UK government departments until at least 2025. PFS currently has <a href="https://prepaidfinancialservices.com/en/councils">agreements with</a> around 121 local councils and NHS clinical commissioning groups. It also has an agreement with <a href="https://www.crowncommercial.gov.uk/agreements/RM6248">Crown Commercial Services</a> – the largest <a href="https://www.crowncommercial.gov.uk/about-ccs">public procurement organisation</a> in the UK. (EML Payments Ltd was approached for comment regarding PFS, its subsidiary, but did not respond.)</p>
<p>Through its collection of purchasing data and constraining rules, the Aspen card serves as a tool of surveillance and control – a means through which the UK government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/hostile-environment-the-uk-governments-draconian-immigration-policy-explained-95460">“hostile environment”</a> is potentially achieved. This raises questions about the role of financial technology companies in shaping punitive digital welfare practices across the UK.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Bennani-Taylor receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nasar Meer receives funding from the British Academy, UKRI, ESRC, RSE and JPI Urban Europe. </span></em></p>Private tech companies are increasingly being used to delivery public funds to vulnerable people – and facilitate the government’s hostile environment policies.Sophie Bennani-Taylor, Doctoral Researcher at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of OxfordNasar Meer, Professor in Social and Political Sciences, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219242024-03-01T17:24:53Z2024-03-01T17:24:53ZHow a Netflix show has become a key driver behind F1’s rising popularity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578710/original/file-20240228-24-4k9yc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C40%2C3805%2C2109&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Netflix</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before the engines start revving for the start of the 2024 Formula One season, many fans will have already lapped up the newest episodes of <a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.drive-to-survive-season-6-release-date-announced-by-netflix.6ZS1GdHlVRpNc9dxA9kZ8F.html">Drive to Survive</a> on Netflix.</p>
<p>The latest series of the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0193723507304608">sports documentary</a> tells the story of last year’s competition, with cameras closely following the teams and drivers across the 22 races of 2023. A soap opera of sport, it is a story of success, failure and redemption, populated by heroes and villains. </p>
<p>Watched by millions since it launched in 2019, Drive to Survive is <a href="https://theathletic.com/3003362/2021/12/12/drive-to-survive-the-f1-documentary-that-has-changed-a-sport/">widely considered </a> to be a piece of high quality television, produced by skilled documentary makers. But it is more than just good telly. As a marketing tool for Formula One, it has been priceless.</p>
<p>The show is credited with creating a surge in the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/03/29/inside-the-numbers-that-show-formula-1s-popularity-and-financial-growth/?sh=261e56c24df6">sport’s audience</a> and crucially, driven down the average age of Formula One TV viewers from <a href="https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/f1-fans-becoming-younger-and-more-diverse-global-survey-results/6696751/">44 to 32</a>. This is a shift much valued by many <a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.formula-1-announces-paramount-as-new-official-partner-in-multi-year-deal.26ROQIhrCcuUExsBOI3RPN.html">commercial brands</a> and broadcasters, who worry that live sport on television is not attracting a <a href="https://digitalcontentnext.org/blog/2023/01/16/sports-media-is-losing-gen-z-how-can-they-win-them-back">Gen Z audience.</a></p>
<p>And it has not gone unnoticed by other sports, which are also keen (sometimes desperate) to expand their audiences and fan base, and have jumped on Netflix’s behind-the-scenes bandwagon. Golf (Full Swing), tennis (Break Point) and rugby union (Full Contact) are all now battling for viewers on the streaming service.</p>
<p>However, the success of Drive to Survive may be hard to replicate. It has glamorous locations, multiple narratives and a big cast of characters which is difficult to reproduce with individual sports. </p>
<p>And the show received huge backing from the company which <a href="https://www.libertymedia.com/tracking-stocks/formula-one-group">took over Formula One</a> in 2017, Liberty Media. </p>
<p>As we set out in our forthcoming book, <a href="https://www.peterlang.com/document/1376328">Streaming the F1 Rivalry: Sport in the Platform Age</a>, the American company’s goal since then has been clear. It wants to attract new fans to the sport, grow revenues and extend the racing calendar across the globe, but specifically in the biggest media sports market in the world – the US. </p>
<p>And in Drive to Survive, they were quick to see a golden opportunity to reach audiences beyond the traditional motor-sports fan. In fact, it was a Liberty Media executive who reached out to Netflix with the idea of promoting the sport, with the crucial element of giving camera crews access to the inner sanctum of the Formuala One paddock, the area where teams set up before a race.</p>
<p>For in many ways Formula One is a sport ill-suited to television. Visually, the skills of the drivers are partly hidden inside the car, their facial expressions impossible to read behind a helmet. </p>
<p>In other sports, the televised event is all about getting up close and personal so we can admire technique and finesse, whether it’s a Novak Djokovic forehand, or the dancing feet of Mo Salah. We also see the athletes’ raw reactions to both success and failure.</p>
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<p>In Formula One, television needs to work much harder. It relies heavily on detailed commentary, a multitude of cameras and access to communication between drivers and their engineers. There are onscreen graphics with data that attempt to make sense of a complicated sport which combines cutting edge technology with pushing the limits of human endurance.</p>
<h2>Streaming stories</h2>
<p>But even with those elements, to some viewers, watching a race might lack excitement. Drive to Survive has stepped in to make the sport more attractive by revealing the human stories, and giving audiences the chance to emotionally invest in the drivers, teams and the personal rivalries.</p>
<p>It used to be newspapers which <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21670811.2017.1281603">provided that narrative</a>. Today, while the print media still has a role, much greater importance is given to what emerges online – whether that’s through social media, on podcasts and YouTube, or on Netflix. It is those channels which provide the chatter which in turn drives interest in Formula One. </p>
<p>Liberty Media understand this because they are not in the sports business in the way that organisations like <a href="https://fenwaysportsgroup.com/">Fenway Sports Group</a> (current owners of Liverpool FC) are. Liberty Media is in the entertainment industry, and it wants to entertain. </p>
<p>But nothing in sport can be guaranteed. It thrives on the unexpected, the sense that on the day, anything can happen. It is unscripted drama, which is what <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/fcss20">differentiates elite sport</a> from other more choreographed cultural activities such as live music concerts and theatre. </p>
<p>But these values and attributes do not always sit well with broadcasters who are selling entertainment to audiences. If things become too dull and too predictable, fans and viewers may lose interest. Formula One regulations are often tweaked and changed deliberately to keep things interesting.</p>
<p>Last year the season had <a href="https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/10-things-we-learned-at-the-2023-f1-singapore-grand-prix/10522065/">exciting races</a>, <a href="https://www.sportskeeda.com/f1/news-most-boring-race-2023-f1-fans-happy-uneventful-azerbaijan-gp">dull races</a> and everything in between. </p>
<p>And while Drive to Survive may provide a pleasing appetiser, Liberty Media will be watching intently as the action unfolds on and off the track, hoping that it will prove exciting and entertaining enough to retain its old fans – and attract lucrative new ones.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221924/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Drive to Survive is one of the streamer’s most successful shows.Raymond Boyle, Professor of Communications, University of GlasgowRichard Haynes, Professor of Media Sport, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244442024-03-01T15:59:10Z2024-03-01T15:59:10ZWhat George Galloway’s win ‘for Gaza’ means for Labour’s standing with Muslim voters<p>The Rochdale byelection should have been a straightforward win for Labour. The late Sir Tony Lloyd served as a Labour member since 2017, with a majority of nearly 10,000. And yet the contest, triggered by Lloyd’s death in January, descended into chaos and controversy. </p>
<p>Now, nine years after his most recent term in parliament, the controversial former Labour and Respect MP George Galloway will represent the seat for his own Workers’ Party of Britain. </p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fc541a7f-4af2-4532-8915-e5d8262f3550">all-male list</a> of candidates, both the Labour Party and the Green Party withdrew support for their candidates following allegations of antisemitism and Islamophobia, respectively. On the ballot paper, Azhar Ali still appeared as the Labour candidate and Guy Otten as Green because it was too late to make any changes. </p>
<p>Labour’s decision to withdraw its support for Ali came after leaked recordings revealed him saying that the Israeli government knew in advance about the attacks by Hamas on October 7 2023, and that they “deliberately took the security off [to allow] that massacre that gives them the green light to do whatever they bloody want”. </p>
<p>By dropping Ali, Labour’s standing among Muslim voters, in Rochdale and beyond, took another battering. Since the start of the war in Gaza, Labour’s position on the conflict has been seen as too lenient towards Israel by many Muslim voters and Labour Muslim politicians. Across the country, more than <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240229-gaza-war-anti-semitism-uk-labour-israel-keir-starmer">60 Labour councillors</a> have resigned in protest. In November 2023, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/15/commons-gaza-vote-labour-defy-starmer-ceasefire-israel">56 Labour MPs</a> defied the party leadership to back the SNP’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. </p>
<p>The Rochdale byelection was the first where the issue of Gaza was explicitly raised on the campaign trail. Clearly, many of the area’s Muslim voters (and others) used this chance to express their anger. And Galloway, who stood on a platform of “For Rochdale. For Gaza”, did too.</p>
<p>Muslims make up 30% of Rochdale’s population. It is therefore unsurprising that Galloway decided to court this constituency in his bid to return as an MP. He successfully won elections in east London and Bradford, both of which have significant Muslim South Asian electorates, and has long advocated for the Palestinian cause.</p>
<p>In 2009 he led the Viva Palestina convoy that travelled to Gaza to provide humanitarian aid during the blockade of the strip. A later <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/charity-inquiry-viva-palestina/viva-palestina-formerly-a-registered-charity">investigation</a> by the Charity Commission found “little if any evidence that humanitarian aid was distributed to those in need” by Viva Palestina, although Galloway always disputed the inquiry’s findings. </p>
<h2>Labour and the ‘Muslim vote’</h2>
<p>There is no such thing as a cohesive “Muslim vote” in the UK. For decades, Labour remained the party of choice for many British Muslims, but this had more to do with other factors <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Muslims-and-Political-Participation-in-Britain/Peace/p/book/9780367599164">including class and race</a>. The Muslim Council of Britain has, for many years, <a href="https://mcb.org.uk/features/elections/archive/muslim-vote-2019/">encouraged Muslims to vote</a> and be part of the political process, but does not back particular candidates or parties.</p>
<p>Within Muslim communities, there is often a political divide between generations. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13676261.2020.1784855">Research</a> has revealed widespread disillusionment with electoral politics, among young Muslims in the UK.</p>
<p>Despite this, many remain politically engaged outside of formal elections, for example through <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137275165">local community organisations</a>, and calling for substantive representation which addresses mainstream and often national political issues. The older generation, in contrast, is seen as prioritising local issues and representation much more closely tied to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-856X.12057">kinship and ethnic identity</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Close up of Keir Starmer speaking at a conference" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579207/original/file-20240301-30-2ydokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579207/original/file-20240301-30-2ydokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579207/original/file-20240301-30-2ydokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579207/original/file-20240301-30-2ydokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579207/original/file-20240301-30-2ydokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579207/original/file-20240301-30-2ydokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579207/original/file-20240301-30-2ydokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Rochdale byelection result sends a message to Starmer to take Muslim voters’ concerns seriously.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cardiff-wales-united-kingdom-february-2-1712952583">ComposedPix/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Despite these caveats about the absence of a Muslim vote, history shows that Muslims will use the ballot box to send messages on both domestic and foreign policy issues. This occurred most famously in the 2005 general election, when the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsr064">Muslim protest vote against the Iraq war</a> helped to swing several constituencies against Labour. Many Labour MPs, including the then foreign secretary Jack Straw, had to fight tooth and nail to retain supposedly “safe” seats. </p>
<p>The major upset in that election was George Galloway winning the seat of Bethnal Green and Bow in east London at the expense of Labour’s Oona King, who voted in favour of UK involvement in the Iraq war. Galloway managed to overturn King’s majority of 10,057 by campaigning on an anti-war stance. Nearly two decades later, Galloway has used another war in a different constituency with a significant Muslim population to do the same.</p>
<h2>Looking to the general election</h2>
<p>In his acceptance speech, Galloway warned Starmer: “This is for Gaza. And you will pay a high price, in enabling, encouraging and covering for, the catastrophe presently going on in occupied Palestine in the Gaza Strip.” In classic Galloway oratory, he declared “all the plates have shifted tonight”, and that Labour has “lost the confidence of millions of their voters”.</p>
<p>Concern about Labour losing votes from its Muslim electors should not be overstated. <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/does-the-israel-gaza-war-create-problems-for-labour-with-muslim-voters/">Opinion polls</a> still record the party’s support as high – and during a general election voters are less likely to vote on a single issue. </p>
<p>Still, Labour will now fear losing ground to independent candidates standing in constituencies with significant numbers of Muslim voters, especially in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/10/labour-mps-facing-wave-of-independent-challengers-over-stance-on-gaza">seats</a> where MPs abstained from or voted against the SNP motion for a ceasefire in Gaza in November 2023. </p>
<p>For years, Labour has taken the support of Muslim voters for granted. Galloway’s win will certainly put pressure on Starmer and the Labour party to take voters’ concerns about Gaza seriously. The result in Rochdale may not indicate more electoral consequences for the party, but it does suggest moral ones.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parveen Akhtar has previously received funding from the British Academy and the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Peace has received funding from the British Academy, the Economic and Social Research Council and the Royal Society of Edinburgh.</span></em></p>The result sends a message to Keir Starmer about Labour’s relationship with Muslim voters.Parveen Akhtar, Senior Lecturer: Politics, History and International Relations, Aston UniversityTimothy Peace, Lecturer in Politics, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197152024-02-22T14:37:56Z2024-02-22T14:37:56ZKalahari weaver birds lay bigger eggs when they have female helpers to feed nestlings<p><a href="https://tswalu.com/">Tswalu Kalahari Reserve</a> is a protected nature reserve at the southern edge of the Kalahari desert in South Africa’s Northern Cape province. It’s an arid area with high daytime temperatures and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abe8980">unpredictable rainfall</a>.</p>
<p>One of the species that lives in this harsh environment is the <a href="https://ebird.org/species/wbswea1?siteLanguage=en_ZA">white-browed sparrow-weaver</a> (<em>Plocepasser mahali</em>). They live here in social groups of up to 12 birds. Group members stay in the same group for many years at a time. </p>
<p>Within each social group, only one pair of birds breeds: the dominant male and female (which lays one to three eggs per breeding attempt). Other group members – usually offspring of the breeding pair – engage in a number of helping behaviours, from defending the territory to feeding the nestlings of the dominant pair.</p>
<p>This is not the only species in which the breeding pair has help raising the young. <a href="https://science.uct.ac.za/fitzpatrick/research-understanding-biodiversity-evolutionary-and-behavioural-ecology/pied-babblers-and-fork-tailed-drongos">Southern pied babblers</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/biggest-bird-nests-in-the-world-are-kept-together-by-family-ties-28932">sociable weavers</a> are other examples in the Kalahari. This type of behaviour, known as cooperative breeding, occurs globally and seems to be particularly associated with arid habitats. However, it’s still not clear what benefits it offers and how it aids species to adapt to the environment.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/birds-evolve-different-body-temperatures-in-different-climates-new-study-of-53-african-species-189174">Birds evolve different body temperatures in different climates – new study of 53 African species</a>
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<p>In a long-term <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3002356#sec007">study</a> recently published in the journal PLOS Biology, covering 10 years of research (from 2007 to 2016) at the Tswalu Kalahari Reserve, my University of Exeter research colleagues and I added some evidence to help answer this question. Our study revealed that white-browed sparrow-weaver mothers lay larger eggs when they have help with nestling care. Egg size is an important trait which affects nestling survival. </p>
<p>This is the first formal evidence in birds that maternal investment in eggs changes with the availability of help. The results also counter the idea previously proposed that with more help, mothers would lay smaller eggs.</p>
<h2>Understanding correlations</h2>
<p><a href="https://peerj.com/articles/4028/">Previous studies</a> of cooperatively breeding birds have tended to find a correlation between having more helpers and laying smaller eggs. However, it was unclear whether this correlation arose from mothers changing their egg size according to the social conditions they experienced (known as “<a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2009.0267">plasticity</a>”), or if other confounding factors could be explaining the results.</p>
<p>By using a number of statistical tools, we could investigate whether individual white-browed sparrow-weaver mothers laid larger or smaller eggs depending on their social conditions. The number of helpers during the post-natal phase is strongly correlated with the number of helpers when mothers laid eggs. So mothers should have reliable information to adjust egg size based on the availability of help with post-natal care. We found that mothers laid larger eggs in the presence of (female) helpers and they also reduced their feeding rates to the offspring.</p>
<p>In white-browed sparrow-weavers, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abe8980">female helpers provide significantly more post-natal care than male helpers</a>. The fact that the number of female helpers (and not male helpers) positively predicted egg size suggests the availability of cooperative care (and not simply the presence of helpers) as the causal mechanism of our results.</p>
<p>These findings indicate it is possible that having help allows mothers to invest more into pre-natal (egg) development of her offspring, to which helpers cannot contribute directly.</p>
<h2>Helpers and benefits to offspring</h2>
<p>It is possible that the lightening of maternal post-natal investment (feeding of nestlings) allows the mother bird to invest more resources into bigger eggs, which are then more likely to hatch into nestlings that survive into adulthood. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/female-warblers-live-longer-when-they-have-help-raising-offspring-115332">Female warblers live longer when they have help raising offspring</a>
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<p>Through positive helper effects on pre-natal maternal investment, helper assistance with the post-natal care of breeders’ young in cooperative species (including our own) may thus have hitherto unknown benefits to offspring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pablo Capilla-Lasheras has received funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK) and currently works at the University of Glasgow.</span></em></p>The study shows that bird mothers can adjust egg size depending on their social conditions. This counters the idea that, with more help, mothers lay smaller eggs.Pablo Capilla-Lasheras, Research Associate in ecology, evolution and behaviour, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233652024-02-15T15:59:08Z2024-02-15T15:59:08ZVladimir Putin’s history war where truth is the first casualty<p>The Kremlin’s decision to <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kremlin-sanctions-russophobic-british-historians-ckkl0dmbv#:%7E:text=The%20Kremlin%20has%20issued%20sanctions,contribution%20to%20London's%20subversive%20work%E2%80%9D.">sanction several UK historians</a> for their allegedly erroneous coverage of Russian history shows the extent to which Vladimir Putin’s regime is doubling down on its view of Ukraine as historically Russian. Putin’s suggestion is so spurious that it requires the silencing of credible historians.</p>
<p>The world got another taste of Putin’s view of history on February 6, when the Russian leader <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOCWBhuDdDo&t=563s">was interviewed</a> by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Putin began this two-hour interview with a lengthy monologue about the medieval history of Russia and Ukraine. The thrust of his argument is that much of modern Ukraine is historically Russian, and that the very idea of Ukraine is nothing more than a Polish invention. </p>
<p>As Putin tells it, in the year 862 the people of the city of Novgorod invited a Viking called Rurik to reign over them. Two decades later, Rurik’s successor, Oleg, established himself in the southern city of Kyiv. Thus, in Putin’s view, Russia was formed in the ninth century, and it incorporated territories stretching from Novgorod, a northerly city in modern-day Russia, to Kyiv, the capital of modern-day Ukraine.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">When Tucker met Vladimir.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Already, alarm bells ring for any historian familiar with the context. First of all, Putin’s story is exactly that, a story. His account of Rurik and Oleg comes from a 12th-century text known as the <a href="https://www.mgh-bibliothek.de/dokumente/a/a011458.pdf">Primary Chronicle</a>. Written by a monk in Kyiv, it celebrated the ruling Rurik dynasty through a series of myths. The Primary Chronicle is as much a work of fiction as a history. It begins with a legend tracing the origins of the Slavic people all the way back to Noah’s Ark. </p>
<p>As far as Putin’s narrative about Rurik goes, modern scholars interpret the people behind Novgorod’s “invitation” as a literary invention. Some have even suggested that Rurik <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/css/52/1/article-p30_2.xml">may have been entirely made up</a>. Putin reeled off this unlikely story from a mythological and deeply biased work of 12th-century literature as historical fact.</p>
<p>More concerning still is Putin’s reference to the existence of Russia in the ninth century. At that time, a kingdom of sorts was emerging that historians often call <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kyivan-Rus">Kyivan Rus</a>. Kyivan Rus comprised principalities spanning part of what is now modern-day Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Those principalities were ruled over by different branches of the Rurik dynasty, who often fought with one another. The most senior member of the dynasty resided in Kyiv, the kingdom’s religious centre.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Kyivan Rus." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=936&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=936&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575941/original/file-20240215-22-v81t2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=936&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Kyivan Rus: wrongly described by Russian president Vladimir Putin as Russian.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SeikoEn/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Kyivan Rus was not “Russian”, as <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181">Putin has called it</a>. Kyivan Rus predates Russia, which began to form around Moscow only <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Formation-of-Muscovy-1300---1613-The/Crummey/p/book/9780582491533#:%7E:text=Description,core%20of%20the%20Soviet%20Union.">from the 14th century</a>. The language of Kyivan Rus was <a href="https://lrc.la.utexas.edu/eieol/oruol">Old East Slavic</a> (OES), the language from which modern-day Belarusian, Russian and Ukrainian derive.</p>
<p>Medieval texts in OES referred to Kyivan Rus as “the Rus land”. Conveniently for the Kremlin, OES words describing Kyivan Rus are often similar to Russian words describing Russia. For example, in OES “the Rus land” is “<em>ruskaya zemlya</em>”, while in Russian the strikingly similar “<em>russkaya zemlya</em>” means “the Russian land”. </p>
<p>Lexical similarities between OES and Russian allow Putin to present Kyivan Rus as Russia – failing to note that OES and Russian are different languages.</p>
<h2>Blame it on Poland</h2>
<p>Putin then skipped forward a few centuries, suggesting to Carlson that the idea of Ukraine was really invented by the Poles. From the late 16th century, part of what had been Kyivan Rus was incorporated into the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Polish-Lithuanian-Commonwealth">Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth</a>. Although this area would later become Ukraine, Putin implies that it was actually Russian, and that the Poles invented the idea that it was Ukrainian as a way of undermining Russia.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Statue of Rurik, a ninth-century Viking who allegedly ruled over a portion of what is modern-day Belarus, Russia and Ukraine in Novgorod, northwestern Russia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575943/original/file-20240215-30-pe3vzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Founder of Russia? Rurik, a ninth-century Viking who allegedly ruled over a portion of modern-day Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Дар Ветер/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Presenting “Ukrainianness” as a Polish invention overlooks the development of a unique culture that was underway in this area in the 1600s. This culture was unique in its innovation of conservative religious tradition and development of new cultural forms. </p>
<p>For example, in 1646 the Kyivan church leader <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Petro-Mohyla">Petro Mohyla</a> published a new church book that did away with certain traditions that had been practised in the region since the 11th century, such as <a href="https://www.academia.edu/38069234/Banning_Spiritual_Brotherhoods_and_Establishing_Marital_Chastity_in_Sixteenth_and_Seventeenth_Century_Muscovy_and_Ruthenia">spiritual brotherhood ceremonies</a>. His book also presented <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/815967/summary">western-inspired images</a> that stood in stark contrast to Russia’s Byzantine-style icons, introducing new and provocative ways of envisioning Christ. </p>
<p>Putin painted a picture of this area as fundamentally Russian and its people as passive, shaped by their imperial overlord Poland. In reality, the culture developing there was distinct. Like Russia, it drew on cultural models from Kyivan Rus, but in contrast to Russia, it innovated those models through cultural exchange with Europe. This was thanks to the active efforts of cultural innovators, some of whom are major figures in Ukrainian history.</p>
<p>Putin’s claim that Ukraine is historically Russian is nothing new. Ever since Russia began forming around Moscow from the 14th century, it saw itself as a continuation of Kyivan Rus. That mindset prevailed when modern Russian history was first written in the 19th century. Karamzin’s 1829 <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/jmrh/3/1/article-p1_2.xml">History of the Russian State</a>, still one of Russia’s most celebrated history books, called Kyivan Rus “Russia”. </p>
<p>So, Putin’s early history of Ukraine is part of a Russian imperialist story that has been told for centuries. Only it is exactly that, a story.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Mayhew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Putin’s argument that Russia has a historic claim to Ukraine stretching back to the Middle Ages relies on some very doubtful sources.Nick Mayhew, Lecturer in Russian, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233632024-02-13T06:12:38Z2024-02-13T06:12:38ZUAE and India are now the best places to start a business, but western countries still beat them in one key respect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575016/original/file-20240212-22-gtf8t7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Abu Dhabi is turning itself into one of the world's leading tech hubs. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/traffic-lights-on-street-abu-dhabi-264424121">Patryk Kosmider/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the best place in the world to start a new business, according to the latest annual <a href="https://www.gemconsortium.org/reports/latest-global-report">Global Entrepreneurship Monitor</a> (GEM) survey. The Arab nation is number one for the third year in a row thanks to a big push by the government into cutting-edge technology in its efforts to diversify away from oil. </p>
<p>Four out of the top five countries in the GEM rankings are in the Middle East or Asia, with India second, Saudi Arabia third and Qatar fifth – the only exception being Lithuania in fourth place. This is characteristic of a clear eastward shift in the quality of entrepreneurship ecosystems in the past five years, closely mirroring a similar shift in the world’s economic <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN20S26W/">centre of gravity</a>.</p>
<p>The UAE has made particularly steady progress, progressing from fifth on the list in 2019 to the lead ranking. Saudi Arabia has risen from 17th to third, while India is up from sixth to second, having shaken off a pandemic dip in between. </p>
<p>Western economies have slipped during the same period. So why has this been happening and what will matter most in future?</p>
<h2>How the survey works</h2>
<p>Entrepreneurship is a major driver of global economic growth. It is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0148296318304454">greatly affected by</a> a country’s regulations, education system, financial institutions and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1075425321000132">overall culture</a>. By evaluating these variables, you can get a good understanding of the entrepreneurial climate. </p>
<p>GEM captures this each year through a national expert survey that goes out to a range of entrepreneurship ecosystem stakeholders, including business leaders, government officials and academics. This year, 49 countries participated in the survey including most countries in the G20 (with exceptions like Australia that didn’t participate in the most recent survey). From this, GEM produces a rating of 13 different entrepreneurial conditions to create the annual index. </p>
<p><strong>GEM rankings 2019-2023</strong></p>
<h2>The shift to the east</h2>
<p>The explanations for the rise of eastern countries include greater government promotion of business creation, more emphasis on entrepreneurship education and changes in how business activity is viewed culturally. </p>
<p>In the UAE, for instance, there have been initiatives such as <a href="https://u.ae/en/about-the-uae/uae-in-the-future/initiatives-of-the-next-50/projects-of-the-50/first-set-of-projects-of-the-50">Projects of the 50</a>, which includes priority visas for entrepreneurs and top students, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, digital currencies and coding. It also includes pushing national adoption of leading technologies. </p>
<p>The government used Expo 2020 as a campaign to promote the Emirates as an attractive destination for business, as well as changing certain rules to make it easier for foreign investors. Notably, this included allowing for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-allow-100-foreign-ownership-companies-june-wam-2021-05-19/">100% foreign ownership</a> of companies in 2021. The <a href="https://www.abudhabi.gov.ae/en/programmes/ghadan-21">Ghadan 21</a> business accelerator programme has also been spending AED50 billion (£11 billion) in Abu Dhabi since 2019. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Abu Dhabi pavillion in GITEX Global 23" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575020/original/file-20240212-22-vdok8w.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abu Dhabi selling itself in Dubai at GITEX Global 23, the biggest tech startup event in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/govt-abu-dhabi-pavilion-43rd-gitex-2380335063">Adnan Ahmad Ali</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Saudis are also focused on diversifying away from oil, and entrepreneurship is one of the top priorities in <a href="https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/en/">Saudi Arabia Vision 2030</a>. This has seen the national enterprise development agency, <a href="https://www.monshaat.gov.sa/en">Monsha’at</a>, doing things like promoting university startups and fast-growing ventures. </p>
<p>The country has been trying to make it easier for entrepreneurs to access finance through initiatives such as the Saudi Public Investment Fund and Saudi Venture Capital Company, while there has been targeted support for <a href="https://sponsored.bloomberg.com/article/Monshaat/female-entrepreneurship-transforming-the-saudi-economy">female entrepreneurs</a>. </p>
<p>To attract foreign talent, the Saudi government also approved a <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2439341/business-economy">new residency scheme in 2019</a> and an <a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/saudi/saudi-arabia-introduces-three-month-temporary-work-visa-1.95099718">instant labour visa</a> in 2023.</p>
<p>In India, there has been a lot of emphasis on innovation in the country’s <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjUsPfI856EAxVAV0EAHXhVCAMQFnoECDgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.education.gov.in%2Fsites%2Fupload_files%2Fmhrd%2Ffiles%2FNEP_Final_English_0.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2VOhw52WTOK6owxeeFXyay&opi=89978449">New Education Policy</a>, which was introduced in 2020 to raise educational standards across the board. Many school students have also been inspired by a nationwide initiative called the <a href="https://aim.gov.in/atl.php">Atal Tinkering Lab</a>, which inculcates curiosity and design mindset through science projects, while the popular TV show Shark Tank (called Dragons’ Den in some countries) has fired up dinner-table discussions about things like “equity” and “product-market fit”. </p>
<h2>East v west</h2>
<p>The weaker performance of western economies has been very noticeable over the past five years. In 2019, four out of the top ten countries were Switzerland, the Netherlands, Norway and the US. All had lost ground by 2023, with Norway and the US no longer even in the top 15, while Switzerland and Netherlands dropped from being the top two countries to ninth and seventh place respectively. </p>
<p>The weakening of business conditions in these economies is potentially explained by the surge in inflation and higher interest rates that they have endured since the pandemic. Incidentally, the UK was ranked 21st overall five years ago and is currently 22nd. </p>
<p>Western economies are still ahead in one important respect, however. When you look at countries like Switzerland, France, Norway and Germany, over 30% of their entrepreneurs are in business services. </p>
<p>The situation is quite different among the leading eastern nations in the GEM rankings, where most entrepreneurial activity focuses on consumer services like retail, hotels, restaurants and personal services. These represent 80% of businesses in Saudi and over 70% in India, while in the UAE the most recent figure is over 60% in 2022. </p>
<p>In Saudi and India, business services such as IT and professional services are less than 10% of entrepreneurial activity overall, while in UAE the 2022 figure was less than 20%. </p>
<p>These low numbers matter because companies providing business services tend to have higher margins, greater potential for scaling and greater barriers to entry. So both in the global east and also in low-income countries, there needs to be more impetus and support for encouraging business services. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Arab walking past fountains at a big hotel in Riyadh" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575036/original/file-20240212-20-krtozg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Consumer services like hotels make up most of business activity in Saudi Arabia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s also worth pointing out that entrepreneurship education needs more attention in most countries. In 31 out of 49 economies, it was rated as the weakest of the conditions assessed in the survey. Without addressing this, many potential new businesses may never come to fruition simply because a generation of schoolchildren grew up unaware that starting a business was an important option for their futures. </p>
<p>Skills imparted through entrepreneurship education such as creativity, innovation, experimentation, a growth mindset, and overcoming the fear of failure will be fundamental requirements in a world where disruptive technologies are evolving at a breakneck pace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aileen is executive director of Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. The 2023/24 report is sponsored by Cartier Women's Initiative; The School of Management Fribourg in Switzerland; the Ministry of Economic Inclusion, Small Business, Employment and Skills in Morocco; the Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research and Innovation in Morocco; and Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco. All views expressed in this article are Aileen’s own. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sreevas Sahasranamam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The eastward shift in the Global Entrepreurship Monitor rankings over the past five years has been striking.Sreevas Sahasranamam, Professor, Adam Smith Business School, University of GlasgowAileen Ionescu-Somers, Lecturer in Entrepreneurship, Université de LausanneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210632024-02-07T17:30:28Z2024-02-07T17:30:28Z‘Digitising’ your wardrobe can help you save money and make sustainable fashion choices<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574112/original/file-20240207-28-3dsoc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=98%2C74%2C8144%2C5413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-angle-above-view-photo-stressed-1819488686">Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Spring is traditionally the season for a good clean – and maybe a clear out. Taking stock and having a bit of a declutter can <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362960760_The_cultural_practice_of_decluttering_as_household_work_and_its_potentials_for_sustainable_consumption">freshen things up domestically</a>. </p>
<p>One popular new way <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2024/jan/05/how-digitally-tracking-clothes-fashion-consumption-taking-off-online">of doing this</a> involves targeting your wardrobe by making digital inventories of your clothes – and then tracking what you wear. You note the price, brand and category of your garments (and shoes and bags) and then record how much use they get. </p>
<p>The idea is that having this information can then lead to better choices in the future, whether that’s saving money or having a more sustainable approach to fashion.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/253310/">better choices are needed</a>. The clothing industry in Europe is ranked fourth in terms of its detrimental <a href="https://wrap.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/nations-wardrobes-hold-16-billion-items-unworn-clothes-people-open-new#:%7E:text=Catherine%20David%2C%20Director%20Collaboration%20and,ambitious%20targets%20of%20Textiles%202030">environmental impact</a> after housing, transport and food. </p>
<p>Clothing is heavily underused, with the number of times a garment gets worn reportedly <a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/fashion-business-models/overview">decreasing by 36%</a> globally between 2000 and 2015. In the UK it has been estimated that 65% of women and 44% of men have clothing in their wardrobe which they <a href="https://www.saveyourwardrobe.com/blog/how-to-spend-lockdown-2.0-save-your-wardrobe/">are yet to wear</a>, while one survey found that many women consider garments worn once or twice <a href="https://cdn.businessoffashion.com/reports/The_State_of_Fashion_2019.pdf">to be “old”</a>. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Quarter life, a series by The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/quarter-life-117947?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">This article is part of Quarter Life</a></strong>, a series about issues affecting those of us in our twenties and thirties. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.</em></p>
<p><em>You may be interested in:</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-social-media-detox-may-not-be-as-good-for-you-as-you-think-new-research-217484?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">Why a social media detox may not be as good for you as you think – new research</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-men-and-women-can-improve-their-health-before-trying-to-conceive-220260?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">Four ways men and women can improve their health before trying to conceive</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/expert-advice-to-help-young-people-keep-their-new-year-resolutions-220451?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">Expert advice to help young people keep their new year resolutions</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>So while brands compete with online services to offer ever increasing amounts of clothing to consume, amid popular tools to <a href="https://theconversation.com/selling-on-vinted-etsy-or-ebay-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-paying-tax-220988">sell the clothes</a> you no longer need, we wondered whether digital tracking could make your wardrobe more sustainable.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/nimmir-2022-0009">our research</a>, we worked with Save Your Wardrobe, an app designed to help people organise and categorise their clothes. We interviewed users to find out if digitising their wardrobes led to any noticeable changes. </p>
<p>From the start, we found consumers feeling anxious and dissatisfied with their clothing behaviours and wardrobe management. There was an aspiration to better understand what was in their wardrobes and how they used their garments.</p>
<p>One woman told us: “Personally I would feel happier if I felt like I was making really thoughtful decisions [about what clothes I buy] and they weren’t coming from a place of anxiety, or a place of feeling constantly like there is some new gap in my wardrobe that I have to fill.”</p>
<p>Another said: “I think a lot about reducing the eco footprint of my lifestyle. And I think clothing is one area where I get frustrated because I don’t feel like my values line up with my behaviour.”</p>
<p>She added: “I feel like we should just consume less, but then I can get anxious and stressed out and feel like I need something, and those two things are incompatible.”</p>
<h2>Make do and mend</h2>
<p>For many, the initial process of organisation required to upload photos of garments to the app became a moment of reflection and an opportunity to challenge and change existing patterns of behaviour. The effort involved also resulted in a sense of appreciation of the clothing which was already owned. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman using phone to take photo of a shirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573796/original/file-20240206-22-vtlsxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C70%2C5193%2C3370&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573796/original/file-20240206-22-vtlsxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573796/original/file-20240206-22-vtlsxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573796/original/file-20240206-22-vtlsxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573796/original/file-20240206-22-vtlsxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573796/original/file-20240206-22-vtlsxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573796/original/file-20240206-22-vtlsxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Getting shirty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-women-taking-photo-shirts-cell-664507150">Nitiphonphat/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>An important aspect of this was the ability to quantify what was in the wardrobe – and many of the people we spoke to were surprised (or even shocked) by the amount of clothing they possessed. </p>
<p>One said: “I realised that 50% of my wardrobe is from Primark. It’s ridiculous and I was like, ‘Oh my god!’” </p>
<p>She continued: “I knew that when I go to Primark I go crazy but I didn’t have a full overview of all the things I have.” </p>
<p>Another commented: “I definitely felt more organised. Revisiting old clothes made me see what I have in my closet. That was good, because I [had been] wanting to buy something new, but realised I don’t need to.”</p>
<p>This kind of reaction was common, as users of the app came to understand – and seek to change – their patterns of behaviour around clothing. Items were rediscovered and brought back into use in a way that made owners feel they were “shopping from their own wardrobes”. </p>
<p>As they realised how much money they had spent on clothes, some pieces were put aside for repair so they could be worn again, while others were given away. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that consumption of clothing is fuelling consumer anxiety – but that using an app can help people feel more in control of their wardrobes. Tracking data about their behaviour gave consumers a sense of being more in control of their actions and where they could make changes. </p>
<p>The chance to quantify and gain insight in this way was viewed as similar to other digital solutions – like wearable fitness trackers that record data and can provide motivational encouragement. </p>
<p>Being more aware of the clothes they already owned made a difference to people’s appetites for owning more. So, with a climate change crisis, and when incomes are being squeezed by the cost of living, perhaps it’s time to ditch the shopping apps – and spend some time becoming reacquainted with the clothes you already own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deirdre Shaw receives funding from ESRC. She is affiliated with Textiles 2030. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Duffy receives funding from ESRC. She is affiliated with Textiles 2030.</span></em></p>How to really get to know your clothes.Deirdre Shaw, Professor Marketing and Consumer Research, University of GlasgowKatherine Duffy, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2220792024-02-06T12:29:37Z2024-02-06T12:29:37ZHow AI could change our relationship with religion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572802/original/file-20240201-15-4uwnfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3828%2C2149&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ai-artificial-intelligence-concept-deep-learning-1866654820">Metamorworks / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Science and faith are often kept in two distinct boxes that hardly ever intersect. However, I believe that as AI becomes more mainstream, it will fundamentally alter our engagement with faith and spirituality.</p>
<p>Let’s start by looking at what is already happening. Most ancient faith-related texts were documented in papyrus and palm leaves, many of which are difficult to access in the modern world due to two challenges. </p>
<p>First, a lot of those ancient texts that are still available are in fragments, some of which could crumble at any time. Second, for texts that have been digitised already, the language used in them is known only to a few people today and therefore the texts remain inaccessible to most.</p>
<p>AI is altering this landscape fundamentally by making access to them easy. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/12/researchers-use-ai-to-read-word-on-ancient-scroll-burned-by-vesuvius">A popular example</a> from 2023 showed how computer scientists from the University of Kentucky had used AI to reveal the contents of carbonised papyrus that was burnt in the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in AD79. </p>
<p>Scientists looked through 3D X-ray images of the papyrus. They trained AI to read letters in the scrolls based on subtle changes left in structure of the papyrus by the ancient ink.</p>
<p>The AI was able to decipher and translate the ancient Greek word for “purple” on the scroll. Other ancient texts from the Indian sub-continent, for example, are in the Sanskrit language or Grantha script, which very few people can read and understand today. </p>
<p>Here again, AI systems are using language translation and text prediction to predict missing characters in old inscriptions. Some start-ups use AI technology called small language models that are trained on <a href="https://www.mokx.org/">Sanskrit texts to create an AI-Guru (AI-tutors)</a> to guide people through these texts. AI can also be used to preserve and help to <a href="https://indiaai.gov.in/news/ai-to-help-preserve-ajanta-cave-paintings">restore faded cave paintings</a>.</p>
<h2>Misinformation problem?</h2>
<p>As with any other technology, AI comes with its challenges. The most prominent in the context of faith is likely to be misinformation and misrepresentation. We have already seen an example of this last year with the viral circulation of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-06/pope-francis-white-puffer-coat-ai-image-sparks-deep-fake-concerns">a deepfake image of the pope</a>. In that instance, it was largely meant as a bit of fun.</p>
<p>However, with <a href="https://elevenlabs.io/text-to-speech">the possibility</a> <a href="https://www.d-id.com/">of the creation</a> of deepfake images and voice cloning through AI costing as little as £10 (using existing online tools such as Eleven Labs and D-ID) we might not be too far from more worrying cases. Imagine extremist organisations using this technology to create propaganda videos with the faked words of religious leaders or to misrepresent religious symbols. </p>
<p>Similarly, language models trained on extremist views could create outputs at scale to spew venom against particular faith groups, leading to hate crimes and community tensions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Person using laptop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572807/original/file-20240201-25-begc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572807/original/file-20240201-25-begc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572807/original/file-20240201-25-begc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572807/original/file-20240201-25-begc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572807/original/file-20240201-25-begc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572807/original/file-20240201-25-begc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572807/original/file-20240201-25-begc3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Could AI actually leave us with more time for spiritual pursuits?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-typing-on-laptop-headphones-ai-2286679085">ImageFlow / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Futuristic vision of AI and faith</h2>
<p>Let’s next take a futuristic vision of AI and its intersection with faith. I would like to use the example of my Hindu faith to illustrate a 50-year future vision.</p>
<p>A key concept of the Hindu faith is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/z4848mn/revision/4">purushartha</a>, which outlines the four aims of human life: dharma (righteousness, moral values), artha (prosperity, economic values), kama (pleasure, psychological values), and moksha (spiritual values, self-actualisation).</p>
<p>In the next 50–100 years, AI is likely to become a co-pilot for all human endeavours including decision-making. For maintaining righteousness or dharma in the world, the algorithm and AI language models must be trained on data that is truthful and morally right.</p>
<p>This won’t be guaranteed unless we build this into regulatory frameworks currently being drawn up for AI. The advancement in AI will naturally accelerate humanity’s attainment of artha, or economic prosperity, as we enter a world of abundance with multiple technological convergences.</p>
<p>Based on the clamour for solutions to the growing problem of societal inequality, we could see forms of universal basic income become the norm globally. This will free up a lot of time – now spent on day jobs – for humanity to take up other pursuits. This would in the first instance be more time spent on pleasure or kama activities.</p>
<p>With more quality time on our hands, we could even see a revival in spiritual and faith-related pursuits (moksha activities). That would be an interesting outcome of AI’s growing influence on the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222079/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sreevas Sahasranamam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI could free up our time to an unprecedented degree, which will leave time for faith-based activities.Sreevas Sahasranamam, Professor, Adam Smith Business School, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221652024-02-05T14:19:18Z2024-02-05T14:19:18ZSurveillance and the state: South Africa’s proposed new spying law is open for comment – an expert points out its flaws<p>In early 2021, the South African Constitutional Court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllowed=y">found</a> that the country’s <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/">State Security Agency</a>, through its signals intelligence agency, the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-06-21-00-spy-wars-south-africa-is-not-innocent/">National Communication Centre</a>, was conducting <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/827/how-bulk-interception-works">bulk interception of electronic signals</a> unlawfully. </p>
<p>Bulk interception <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/827/how-bulk-interception-works">involves</a> the surveillance of electronic signals, including communication signals and internet traffic, on a very large scale, and often on an untargeted basis. If intelligence agents misuse this capability, it can have a massive, negative impact on the privacy of innocent people. </p>
<p>The court found that there was no law authorising the practice of bulk surveillance and limiting its potential abuse. It ordered that the agency cease such surveillance until there was. </p>
<p>In November 2023, the South African presidency responded to the ruling by tabling a bill to, among other things, plug the gaps identified by the country’s highest court. The <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/B40-2023_General_Intelligence_Laws.pdf">General Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill</a> sets out how the surveillance centre, based in Pretoria, the capital city, should be regulated.</p>
<p>I have researched intelligence and surveillance for over a decade and also served on the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">2018 High Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency</a>. <a href="https://intelwatch.org.za/2023/11/17/briefing-note-general-intelligence-laws-amendment-bill-gilab/">In my view</a>, the bill lacks basic controls over how this highly invasive form of surveillance should be used. This compromises citizens’ privacy and increases the potential for the state to repeat previous abuses. I discuss some of these abuses below. </p>
<h2>The dangers</h2>
<p>Intelligence agencies use bulk interception to put large numbers of people, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/03/everyone-is-under-surveillance-now-says-whistleblower-edward-snowden">even whole populations</a>, under surveillance. This is regardless of whether they are suspected of serious crimes or threats to national security. Their intention is to obtain strategic intelligence about <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Signals-Intelligence/Overview/">longer term external threats</a> to a country’s security, and that may be difficult to obtain by other means. </p>
<p>Former United States National Security Agency contractor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistleblower-surveillance">Edward Snowden’s</a> leaks of classified intelligence documents showed how these capabilities had been used to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN25T3CJ/">spy on US citizens</a>. The leaks also showed that British intelligence <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/12/08/british-spying-tentacles-reach-across-africa-s-heads-of-states-and-business-leaders_5045668_3212.html">spied on African</a> trade negotiators, politicians and business people to give the UK government and its partners unfair trade advantages.</p>
<p>In the case of South Africa, around 2005, rogue agents in the erstwhile <a href="https://irp.fas.org/world/rsa/index.html">National Intelligence Agency</a> misused bulk interception to <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/igreport0.pdf">spy on</a> senior members of the ruling African National Congress, the opposition, business people and civil servants. This was despite the agency’s mandate being to focus on foreign threats. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-new-intelligence-bill-is-meant-to-stem-abuses-whats-good-and-bad-about-it-220473">South Africa's new intelligence bill is meant to stem abuses – what's good and bad about it</a>
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<p>These rogue agents were able to abuse bulk interception because there was no law controlling and limiting how these capabilities were to be used. A 2008 commission of inquiry, appointed by then-minister of intelligence <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/ronald-ronnie-kasrils">Ronnie Kasrils</a>, <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/Assets/Documents/PDFs/csrc-background-papers/Intelligence-In-a-Constitutional-Democracy.pdf">called</a> for this law to be enacted. The government refused to do so until it was forced to act by the Constitutional Court ruling. </p>
<p>The government <a href="https://www.anchoredinlaw.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Answering-Affidavit-DG-State-Security-Agency.pdf">justified</a> its refusal to act by claiming that the National Communication Centre was regulated adequately through the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act39of1994.pdf">National Strategic Intelligence Act</a>. The court rejected this argument because the act failed to address the regulation of bulk interception directly. </p>
<h2>What the Constitutional Court said</h2>
<p>The 2021 Constitutional Court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllowed=y">judgment</a> did not address whether bulk interception should ever be acceptable as a surveillance practice. However, it appeared to accept the <a href="https://www.anchoredinlaw.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Answering-Affidavit-DG-State-Security-Agency.pdf">agency’s argument</a> that it was an internationally accepted method of monitoring transnational signals. But the legitimacy of this practice is <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3115985-APPLICANTS-REPLY-to-GOVT-OBSERVATIONS-PDF.html">highly contested internationally</a>. That’s because this form of surveillance usually extends far beyond what is needed to protect national security.</p>
<p>The court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllow">indicated</a> that it would want to see a law authorising bulk surveillance that sets out “the nuts and bolts of the Centre’s functions”. The law would also need to spell out in</p>
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<p>clear, precise terms the manner, circumstances or duration of the collection, gathering, evaluation and analysis of domestic and foreign intelligence.</p>
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<p>The court would also be looking for detail on</p>
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<p>how these various types of intelligence must be captured, copied, stored, or distributed.</p>
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<h2>What the amendment bill says</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/B40-2023_General_Intelligence_Laws.pdf">amendment bill</a> provides for the proper establishment of the National Communication Centre and its functions. This includes the collection and analysis of intelligence from electronic signals, and information security or cryptography. A parliamentary <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee/335/">ad hoc committee</a> has set a <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/media-statement-ad-hoc-committee-general-intelligence-laws-amendment-bill-extends-deadline-written-submissions#:%7E:text=Unfortunately%2C%20the%20timeline%20to%20process,over%206%20000%20written%20submissions.">deadline</a> of 15 February 2024 for public comment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-agency-needs-speedy-reform-or-it-must-be-shut-down-200386">South Africa's intelligence agency needs speedy reform - or it must be shut down</a>
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<p>The bill says, in vague terms, that the centre shall gather, correlate, evaluate and analyse relevant intelligence to identify any threat or potential threat to national security. But it doesn’t provide any of the details the court said it would be looking for. This is a major weakness.</p>
<p>The bill has one strength, though. It states that the surveillance centre needs to seek the permission of a retired judge, assisted by two interception experts, before conducting bulk interception. The judge will be appointed by the president, and the experts by the minister in charge of intelligence. The position is <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/AboutUs">located in the presidency</a>.</p>
<p>However, it does not spell out the bases on which the judge will take decisions. The fact that the judge would be an executive appointment also raises doubts about his or her independence.</p>
<h2>Inadequate benchmarking</h2>
<p>The bill fails to incorporate international benchmarks on the regulation of strategic intelligence and bulk interception in a democracy. These require that a domestic legal framework provide what the European Court of Human Rights <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">has referred to</a> as “end-to-end” safeguards covering all stages of bulk interception.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-watchdog-is-failing-civil-society-how-to-restore-its-credibility-195121">South Africa's intelligence watchdog is failing civil society. How to restore its credibility</a>
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<p>The European Court <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">has stated</a> that a domestic legal framework should define</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the grounds on which bulk interception may be authorised</p></li>
<li><p>the circumstances</p></li>
<li><p>the procedures to be followed for granting authorisation </p></li>
<li><p>procedures for selecting, examining and using material obtained from intercepts</p></li>
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<p>The framework <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">should also set out</a> </p>
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<li><p>the precautions to be taken when communicating the material to other parties</p></li>
<li><p>limits on the duration of interception </p></li>
<li><p>procedures for the storage of intercepted material</p></li>
<li><p>the circumstances in which such material must be erased and destroyed </p></li>
<li><p>supervision procedures by an independent authority</p></li>
<li><p>compliance procedures for review of surveillance once it has been completed.</p></li>
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<p>The bill does not meet these requirements. </p>
<p>Incorporating these details in regulations would not be adequate on its own, as the bill gives the intelligence minister too much power to set the ground rules for bulk interception. These rules are also unlikely to be subjected to the same level of public scrutiny as the bill. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zondo-commissions-report-on-south-africas-intelligence-agency-is-important-but-flawed-186582">Zondo Commission's report on South Africa's intelligence agency is important but flawed</a>
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<p>The fact that the presidency is attempting to get away with the most minimal regulation of bulk interception raises doubt about its <a href="https://www.stateofthenation.gov.za/assets/downloads/State%20Capture%20Commission%20Response.pdf">stated commitment</a> to intelligence reform to limit the scope for abuse, and parliament needs correct the bill’s clear deficiencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Duncan receives funding from the British Academy and is a director of the non-governmental organisation Intelwatch. </span></em></p>The fact that the presidency is attempting to get away with minimal regulation of bulk interception raises doubt about its commitment to ending intelligence abuse.Jane Duncan, Professor of Digital Society, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215172024-01-29T16:38:13Z2024-01-29T16:38:13ZThe battle of Waterlooplein: how Amsterdam’s Jews fought back against Nazi occupation in 1941<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571875/original/file-20240129-25-k3ae2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">German troops enter Amsterdam in May 1940.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://archief.amsterdam/beeldbank/detail/bfe87f52-1176-9c24-8d30-cb9158ac7222/media/61a38e33-7995-cb69-c801-36b391fd3954?mode=detail&view=horizontal&q=Amsterdam%20duitse&rows=1&page=6">Amsterdam City Archives/ANWL00029000013</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For his latest film, Occupied City, the British artist Steve McQueen has turned his sights on the Nazi occupation of Amsterdam, his home town.</p>
<p>McQueen’s documentary is informed by the 2019 book, Atlas of an Occupied City: Amsterdam 1940-1945, by Dutch author and film director – and McQueen’s wife – Bianca Stigter. Film critic Peter Bradshaw <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/17/occupied-city-review-steve-mcqueens-moving-meditation-on-wartime-amsterdam">has described</a> it as a “monumental survey-meditation” on daily life under German rule. </p>
<p>For just over four hours, the camera tracks through modern-day Amsterdam; the voiceover describing the horrors the Nazis perpetrated in its streets, squares and buildings. A prison yard where captured Jews were held is now an open space overlooked by the Hard Rock Cafe. The secret police headquarters is now a school.</p>
<p>I have spent four decades researching how Jews responded to Nazi oppression. As detailed in my book <a href="https://anthempress.com/individuals-and-small-groups-in-jewish-resistance-to-the-holocaust-pb">Individuals and Small Groups in Jewish Resistance to the Holocaust</a>, Amsterdam was the site of a unique act of defiance on February 9 1941, the day Dutch Nazis attacked the city’s Jewish neighbourhood.</p>
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<h2>A campaign of terror</h2>
<p>On May 15 1940, five days after the Germans invaded the Netherlands, the Dutch army capitulated and an occupation regime was instituted. </p>
<p>The Dutch adopted an uncertain but overall passive attitude, because, following five days of warfare, the German occupiers appeared to act with restraint. However, during the autumn of 1940, Jews were increasingly struck by discriminatory measures aimed at their segregation from non-Jews. This separation was enforced by a campaign of terror. From the end of 1940, Dutch Nazis participated in that campaign.</p>
<p>About 140,000 Jews lived in the Netherlands, just over 1% of the population of the small, flat country on the North Sea. Jews had been integrating into Dutch society, but economic crises and the rise of Nazism hampered this process. </p>
<p>Jews mostly resided in towns, foremost in Amsterdam. The capital counted 65,000 Jewish inhabitants, concentrated in several neighbourhoods, including the old Jewish quarter near the city centre.</p>
<p>On Sunday, February 9 1941, a group of black-uniformed Dutch Nazis accompanied by German soldiers briefly entered Amsterdam’s Jewish quarter, kicking in doors, destroying possessions and beating up people.</p>
<p>The next morning, rumours abounded that the Nazis would return. There was distress in the neighbourhood, but also resilience. The idea of defence groups was mooted. Those who had fought before or were used to street fighting took charge. A trainer from a neighbourhood boxing school assembled about 50 boxers and wrestlers in his gym. Other groups were based in pubs.</p>
<p>Lard Zilverberg was one of the defenders. He had been born in 1916 into a large Jewish family. When employed, Zilverberg worked as a sign painter. He wasn’t tall, but you couldn’t help noticing him – a hothead with fierce eyes and a fiery voice, a boxer who was fleet of foot and packed a punch.</p>
<p>On Tuesday evening, just after half past six, 40 Nazis left their headquarters. The unit marched into the Jodenbuurt, the old Jewish neighbourhood, continuing until Waterlooplein.</p>
<p>There they turned left, along the tram tracks. One Nazi was on a bike. Coming on to the square, he took a sharp left and got separated from his group at the playground in the middle of the open space. A piece of metal was thrown at the cyclist. Stones followed. His comrades started running towards him.</p>
<p>At that moment Jewish defenders emerged from doorways and unlit alleys. Knives were drawn. Men fought with rubber hoses enforced with lead. A Nazi named Hendrik Koot fell under the blows. Koot, born in 1898, was a shopkeeper and father of eight. He stood up and tried to get away, but was grabbed again. The battle was decided in minutes. The Nazis withdrew.</p>
<h2>Merciless reprisals</h2>
<p>At quarter past seven, wounded men started to arrive at a first-aid post just off the square. Koot had head injuries; the base of his skull was fractured. He was taken to hospital, where he died three days later. </p>
<p>There were Jewish casualties too. One of them had been stabbed in the chest. Another had a head wound. At quarter past nine, the last injury was treated.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the German police cordoned off the neighbourhood. They made 20 arrests among Jews who had remained on the streets, including Zilverberg. The detainees were beaten. Zilverberg, flanked by his brother Philip and another fighter, was forced to pose for a <a href="https://beeldbankwo2.nl/nl/beelden/detail/4e8a311a-025a-11e7-904b-d89d6717b464/media/7cf39639-b36a-d7fe-3584-5d5d332b1d0a?mode=detail&view=horizontal&q=zilverberg&rows=1&page=5">photo</a>.</p>
<p>German reprisals were merciless. On February 22 and 23, another 400 Jewish men were rounded up. However, two days later, the Dutch population responded with a general protest strike, which started in Amsterdam, lasting two days, then spread to other cities.</p>
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<p>All but one of the captured men were killed. Eventually, more than 100,000 Dutch Jews were deported and murdered during the Holocaust – over 70% of the country’s Jewish population, a very high percentage compared to other western European countries. But that does not imply that Dutch Jews were “led like lambs to the slaughter”, an often-repeated misconception.</p>
<p>My research has found that Jews refused to be terrorised. They fought back. They maintained their religion and culture. They protested publicly. They wrote for clandestine papers and helped distribute them, often endangering their own safety. </p>
<p>Jews disobeyed deportation orders that arrived in 1942. Despite the German might, collaboration and indifference among non-Jews, almost 30,000 Jews went into hiding (half of them were caught, showing how difficult hiding was). </p>
<p>They formed organisations to support each other. They helped people escape from deportation centres, trains and concentration camps, saving hundreds of children. </p>
<p>They tried to sabotage the deportation with firebombs. They formed or joined non-Jewish resistance groups and were among the pioneers of armed resistance.</p>
<p>The events of February 1941 ended the general uncertainty and contributed to wider resistance, which fully developed later. The battle of Waterlooplein also signified that Jewish resistance meant a fight to the death. Lard Zilverberg’s death was registered in the <a href="https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/mauthausen">Mauthausen concentration camp</a>, in Austria, on February 5 1942.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221517/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Braber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>40 years of research have shown that Jews, in Amsterdam and beyond, refused to be terrorised by Nazi oppression.Ben Braber, Honorary Research Fellow in History, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205542024-01-11T17:24:22Z2024-01-11T17:24:22ZReflectors in space could make solar farms on Earth work for longer every day<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568709/original/file-20240110-19-1lmnvi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1914%2C1077&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Viale (University of Glasgow)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you happened to be looking at the sky in Europe on a cold night on February 5 1993, there is a chance you could have seen a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/05/world/russia-s-mirror-in-space-reflects-the-light-of-the-sun-into-the-dark.html">dim flash of light</a>. That flash came from a Russian space mirror experiment called Znamya-2. </p>
<p>Znamya-2 was a 20-metre reflective structure much like aluminium foil (Znamya means “banner” in Russian), unfurled from a spacecraft which had just undocked from the Russian Mir space station. Its goal was to demonstrate solar energy could be reflected from space to Earth.</p>
<p>This was the first and only time that a mirror had ever been launched into space for that purpose. But, three decades on, colleagues and I believe it’s time to revisit this technology.</p>
<p>Unlike proposals to build <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-could-soon-be-getting-energy-from-solar-power-harvested-in-space-210203">solar power stations in space</a> and transmit energy down to earth, all the generation would still happen down here. Crucially, these reflectors could help solar farms generate electricity even when direct sunlight is not available, especially during evening and early morning hours when demand for clean energy is greatest. Colleagues and I call this concept “orbiting solar reflectors”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite with reflective material" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Znamya-2 produced a 5km-wide bright spot that travelled across Europe from France to Russia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Znamya_(satellite)#/media/File:Znamya-2.jpg">RSC Energia (РКК </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pioneering rocket scientist Hermann Oberth recognised the potential all the way back in 1929, when he <a href="https://ia600304.us.archive.org/24/items/nasa_techdoc_19720008133/19720008133.pdf">envisaged reflectors in space</a> relaying sunlight to illuminate large cities and ship routes. He predicted that these reflectors would be very large, thin and ultralightweight, and built in space by astronauts wearing diving suits. </p>
<p>Colleagues and I recently published a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117723003939">paper</a> in which we explored the possibility of orbiting solar reflectors in the near term. We think Oberth’s vision may now be achievable thanks to up-and-coming technologies such as robotic spacecraft that can manufacture and assemble structures in space. The reflectors and other materials necessary to build such large structures could be launched by modern rockets such as SpaceX’s colossal <a href="https://theconversation.com/spacex-launches-most-powerful-rocket-in-history-in-explosive-debut-like-many-first-liftoffs-starships-test-was-a-successful-failure-204248">Starship</a>.</p>
<p>Each time a reflector passes over a solar power farm, it could angle itself to illuminate the solar farm and its immediate surroundings. Each “pass” would extend the “day” of the solar farm and hence its hours of electricity generation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Reflectors in space bouncing sunlight down to earth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When the reflectors can see a large solar farm, they would steer themselves to redirect sunlight towards it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Viale, University of Glasgow; NASA (for Earth texture)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When the reflector can no longer illuminate the solar farm, it can be rotated such that it is edge-on to the Sun and no light is reflected to the ground. For this reason, we expect the potential disturbance to ground-based astronomical observations would be minimal.</p>
<h2>Illuminate a 10km area</h2>
<p>With the reflectors orbiting 900km above us – about twice the altitude of the International Space Station – we estimate that the illuminated area on the Earth would be approximately 10km across when at its brightest. Therefore, a system like this would not be aimed at individual rooftop solar panels but large solar power farms, typically located away from inhabited areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite image of solar park in desert" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Potential target? The vast Bhadla Solar Park in a desert in India is 14 km (8.7 miles) end to end.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.com/maps/@27.4967019,71.9634197,12445m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu">Google Maps</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each pass would extend energy generation by about 15 to 20 minutes around the dawn or dusk hours. This is important because those hours are when electricity demand is the highest and often exceeds the amount being generated by wind and solar, meaning coal and gas power plants are used to compensate. Reflectors may therefore help abate fossil fuel use without needing to store energy during the day.</p>
<p>These reflectors would be high enough to service multiple solar farms on the same orbit. Their orbits could even be used to inform where to build new solar farms in especially sunny regions.</p>
<p>Our proposal uses hexagonal reflectors with sides 250 metres long. Each weighs about 3 tonnes. It would currently cost a few thousand US dollars per kilogram to launch something like this into space, though costs are on a downward trend. If costs are reduced to a few hundred US dollars per kilo, then we would expect orbiting reflectors to be viable within a few years.</p>
<p>We expect these reflectors to operate for 20 to 30 years, though the carbon footprint of a system such as this is hard to estimate since spacecraft generally take a long time to design, build and operate. Further research will be needed to produce a full lifecycle assessment, but in the long run, we expect the reflectors would help generate enough clean energy to outweigh their carbon footprint.</p>
<h2>No more nighttime?</h2>
<p>Three days after the news of the Znamya-2 experiment was published in the New York Times, a reader wrote to the editor wondering whether we would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/21/opinion/l-before-we-give-up-night-altogether-120193.html">give up our nights</a>. The short answer is no. </p>
<p>Even at its brightest, we estimate that the illumination levels would last only a few minutes per reflector and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0273117721007936">not exceed an overcast day level</a>. This means that, unless you are very close to the solar power farm, the illumination may not even be noticeable most of the time, especially at dawn/dusk times when the sky is already quite bright compared to nighttime.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of earth and solar reflectors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1929 sketch by Hermann Oberth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ia600304.us.archive.org/24/items/nasa_techdoc_19720008133/19720008133.pdf">Oberth / NASA / Internet Archive</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also estimate that the reflector itself would not be visible to the naked eye unless you are close to the solar farm. These estimations suggest that the impact of these reflectors on the natural environment around the solar power farm may also be minimal, though more research is necessary.</p>
<p>When the reflectors are old or no longer needed, they could <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-sail-through-space-on-sunbeams-solar-satellite-leads-the-way-42223">“sail” on sunlight</a> into less-congested higher orbits or into a lower orbit to burn up safely. </p>
<p>Orbiting solar reflectors are still some way off. But they represent a way to connect the space and energy sectors to help accelerate the transition towards clean energy and tackle climate change.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u1w-Ty-8Kfs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How this might work (Video: Andrea Viale, University of Glasgow)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Onur Çelik and his colleagues receive funding from European Research Council. He collaborated with Dr. Andrea Viale, Dr. Temitayo Oderinwale, Dr. Litesh Sulbhewar and Prof. Colin R. McInnes in the preparation of the article and on the SOLSPACE project. SOLSPACE project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 883730)</span></em></p>Proposed reflectors would help provide clean energy when demand peaks near dawn and dusk.Onur Çelik, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Space Technology, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2107372024-01-11T16:36:54Z2024-01-11T16:36:54ZClimate disclosures: corporations underprepared for tighter new standards, study of 100 companies reveals<p>Companies and the carbon emissions that they generate are one of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">key drivers of anthropogenic climate change</a>. Because of this, however, they also hold precious potential of curbing its severity. The <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230418183423">2021 Glasgow Pact</a> stated that rigorous sustainability reporting standards that will push companies to disclose information about their impact on the environment as well as climate change’s impact on their operations are essential. For this reason, it supported the creation of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), a new branch of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation, which aims to develop a robust set of financial-related sustainability-reporting criteria.</p>
<p>In June 2023, the ISSB issued its first two standards, IFRS S1, <em>General Requirements for Disclosure of Sustainability-Related Financial Information</em> and IFRS S2, <em>Climate-Related Disclosures</em>. The second focuses solely on climate change-related issues, requiring companies to disclose information around four aspects of their activities: governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics and targets. The standard requires information about the company’s governance body responsible for oversight of climate-related risks and opportunities, as well as quantitative disclosures (in particular, greenhouse-gas emissions).</p>
<p>The standards have gained support from many global bodies, including the G7, the G20, the International Organization of Securities Commissions, and the Financial Stability Board. Although no country has yet adopted them, many are expected to endorse or require them in the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/pro-take-forget-the-sec-international-climate-reporting-standards-could-become-the-global-baseline-ea01d05a">near future</a>. Countries such as the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-sustainability-disclosure-standards">UK</a> and <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/news-and-events/news/2023/10/brazil-adopts-issb-global-baseline/">Brazil</a> are moving toward this direction. Also, the European Commission <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/news-and-events/news/2023/07/european-comission-efrag-issb-confirm-high-degree-of-climate-disclosure-alignment/">confirmed</a> that climate-related disclosures of the European Sustainability Reporting Standards exhibit a high degree of alignment with second IFRS standard, and EU-based companies will have to adopt them in 2024.</p>
<h2>Are companies ready for this transition?</h2>
<p>At the end of March 2022, the ISSB issued drafts of the two standards. <a href="https://www.accaglobal.com/content/dam/ACCA_Global/professional-insights/readiness-to-adopt-IFRS/PI-ISSB-CLIMATE-DISCLOSURE%20v7.pdf">Our study</a> explored the <em>ex ante</em> level of firms’ adherence with climate-related disclosures by capturing disclosure levels against those proposed as to be required by the draft IFRS S2 (known as ED IFRS S2). Our year of analysis was the financial year 2021, i.e., the year immediately prior to the publication of the draft. We purposely focused on 100 large international companies in sectors with high carbon emissions, comprising 50 from the chemicals and 50 from the construction materials sectors.</p>
<p>Due to their size, such companies are under increasing pressure from consumers, shareholders, regulators and NGOs to report on their climate-related risks and opportunities. To carry out our analysis, we built a research instrument based on the ED IFRS S2 and scored the firms’ publicly available reports, ranging from annual, sustainability to integrated reports.</p>
<h2>Variations in reporting</h2>
<p>Our findings indicate that, on average, the companies analysed disclose around 39% of the items they would be required to reveal under the ED IFRS S2. When we zoom into the four categories of the ED IFRS S2 “core content”, we find that companies engage much more with climate-related disclosures about their governance processes (around 60%) but much less with strategy and risk management disclosures (around 36% and 35%, respectively).</p>
<p>For metrics and targets, companies disclosed more of their climate-related targets than reporting their metrics (i.e., outcomes) with average levels around 67% and 35%, respectively. In other words, companies are found to be more vocal about their future plans (i.e., their future targets) than they are about their actual achievements so far (i.e., metrics). The moderate overall level of companies’ forecasted adherence with the draft standard does not allow us to draw a direct conclusion. Nevertheless, a closer look to the findings reveals some additional insights with important implications about the application of IFRS S2:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>It draws heavily from the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations. When we focus specifically on the “new” items (those not included in the 2017 TCFD recommendations), we find that the related average disclosure score drops to about 25%.</p></li>
<li><p>Many “new” items relate to the effects of climate-related risks and opportunities on financial statements. Our evidence indicates that climate-related disclosures appear disconnected from the financial statements. This is consistent with our <a href="https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/professional-insights/global-profession/climate-change-risk-related-disclosure-extractive-industries.html">previous studies</a> on companies from the extractives sector that report very low levels of engagement with climate-related financial disclosures in their financial statements. For example, whether climate change affects companies’ accounting policies, their financial performance, and their cash flows.</p></li>
<li><p>Companies use various locations to disclose their climate-related information with limited cross-referencing between their various reports. On average, 50% of the items disclosed are found in the annual reports, about 25% are found in sustainability reports only, and around 15% in other reports only (e.g., CDP response). The absence of cross-referencing potentially hinders the connectivity (and hence the usefulness) of the disclosures scattered among different reports.</p></li>
<li><p>About 50% of the companies have, at least, some parts of their climate-related disclosures assured by a third party. The assurance refers primarily to the metrics disclosed and to a much lower extent to the narratives.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>More challenges ahead</h2>
<p>This fast-changing corporate reporting landscape brings new challenges for companies, regulators, standard setters, and users:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Having contrasted the suggested requirements in the ED IFRS S2 and in the final version of IFRS S2, we note few differences that, however, do not alter the requirements in substance. If anything, IFRS S2 is more prescriptive and thus more “demanding” for companies.</p></li>
<li><p>Future disclosure. Based on forecasted disclosure levels, companies face considerable changes to their reporting when the two standards are adopted, or made mandatory, at a country level.</p></li>
<li><p>New standards on the horizon. The ISSB is considering a <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/projects/work-plan/issb-consultation-on-agenda-priorities/">number of other sustainability-related topics</a> such as biodiversity, ecosystems and ecosystem services; human capital; and human rights for its future standards. There is still a long way ahead for the ISSB to cover such a multidimensional topic satisfactorily. At the same time, companies may find it particularly challenging to collect all the necessary information for adequately disclosing their sustainability-related activities/impact when the full set of IFRS sustainability standards is completed.</p></li>
<li><p>Materiality. According to IFRS S1, companies shall disclose sustainability disclosures that have financial implications for them and their financial capital providers. Nevertheless, the magnitude of various climate-related risks (especially the physical ones) companies, potentially, face inherently cannot easily be reliably measured. Hence, the reliability of these disclosures may be questioned.</p></li>
<li><p>Audit and assurance. Neither IFRS S1 nor S2 requires assurance of disclosures, although they recommend verification for some items (such as the volume of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions). Nevertheless, companies are required to disclose material sustainability-related financial information which is likely to be subject to the audit process. It is unclear how the audit of this extra financially material information will be performed.</p></li>
<li><p>Integrated reporting. The intention of ISSB is to integrate financial and sustainability reporting, following the <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ir-framework/">Integrated Reporting Framework</a>. However, very few companies engage with disclosures directly connected to their financial statements. Without change in reporting, the ISSB’s purpose to provide integrated sustainability-related financial reporting standards may be undermined.</p></li>
<li><p>Standards competition. Although the ISSB has received support from many jurisdictions, other countries (namely the EU block and the US) are working on separate projects (e.g., European Sustainability Reporting Standards). While the current “polyphony” helps to improve the quality of sustainability reporting standards, companies may find themselves being subject to multiple reporting requirements. Moreover, users may find it difficult to compare companies’ performance that report against different Standards. Without global comparability, sustainability reporting may fail its very purpose.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Our research project was funded by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants in the UK.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Our research project was funded by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants in the UK</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Our research project was funded by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants in the UK
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ioannis Tsalavoutas ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>By and large, corporations who prepared themselves for new sustainability standards were more eloquent on their green plans than achievements.Diogenis Baboukardos, Associate professor in accounting, management control and economics, AudenciaEvangelos Seretis, Lecturer in accounting, University of GlasgowFanis Tsoligkas, Associate professor in management, accounting, finance & law, University of BathIoannis Tsalavoutas, Professor in accounting and finance, University of GlasgowRichard Slack, Professor of accounting, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204732024-01-11T15:54:30Z2024-01-11T15:54:30ZSouth Africa’s new intelligence bill is meant to stem abuses – what’s good and bad about it<p>When South Africa became a constitutional democracy <a href="https://www.britannica.com/question/How-did-apartheid-end">in 1994</a>, it replaced its apartheid-era intelligence apparatus with a new one aimed at serving the country’s new democratic dispensation. However, the regime of former president Jacob Zuma, 2009-2018, deviated from this path. It <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">abused</a> the intelligence services to serve his political and allegdly corrupt ends. Now the country is taking steps to remedy the situation.</p>
<p>In November 2023, the presidency published the <a href="https://pmg.org.za/bill/1197/">General Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill</a>. It proposes overhauling the civilian intelligence agency, the <a href="http://www.ssa.gov.za/">State Security Agency</a>, to address the <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">abuses</a>.</p>
<p>The bill is extremely broad in scope. It intends to amend 12 laws – including the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act39of1994.pdf">main</a> <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/a65-020.pdf">intelligence</a> <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/120224oversight_0.PDF">laws</a> of the democratic era. </p>
<p>Parliament has set itself a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/38063/">1 March deadline</a> to complete work on the bill before it dissolves for the national election expected between <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/elections/whats-new-in-the-2024-elections-electoral-amendment-act">May and August</a>. </p>
<p>I have researched intelligence and surveillance for over a decade and also served on the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">2018 High Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency</a>.</p>
<p>In my view, some of the proposals in the bill risk replacing the old abuses with new ones. The bill seeks to broaden intelligence powers drastically but fails to address <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/38207/">longstanding weaknesses in their oversight</a>. </p>
<h2>Ending abuse</h2>
<p>The bill is meant to respond to major criticisms of the State Security Agency during Zuma’s presidency. The critics include the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">High Level Review Panel</a> and the <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">Commission of Inquiry into State Capture</a>. </p>
<p>The main criticism of the panel appointed by Zuma’s successor Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 was that under Zuma, the executive <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">repurposed</a> the agency to keep him in power, along with his supporters and others dependent on his patronage. In 2009, he merged the erstwhile domestic intelligence agency, the National Intelligence Agency, and the foreign agency, the <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/AboutUs/Branches">South African Secret Service</a>, by <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/security/national-security/ssa-takes-shape-legislation-to-follow/">presidential proclamation</a>, to centralise intelligence. This made it easier for his regime to control intelligence to achieve nefarious ends. The state capture commission made <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">similar findings</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-surveillance-law-is-changing-but-citizens-privacy-is-still-at-risk-214508">South Africa’s surveillance law is changing but citizens’ privacy is still at risk</a>
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<p>The most important proposal in the bill is to abolish the <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/42/state-security-agency-ssa">State Security Agency</a>. It is to be replaced by two separate agencies: one for foreign intelligence, and the other for domestic. The proposed new South African Intelligence Service (foreign) and the South African Intelligence Agency (domestic) will have separate mandates.</p>
<p>Abolishing the State Security Agency would be an important step towards accountability, as set out in the 1994 <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/white-papers/intelligence-white-paper-01-jan-1995#:%7E:text=The%20goal%20of%20this%20White,relevant%2C%20credible%20and%20reliable%20intelligence.">White Paper on Intelligence</a>. </p>
<p>The proposed names of the envisioned new agencies have symbolic importance. They suggest a shift away from a focus on state security, or protection of those in positions of power. Instead, it puts the focus back on human security. This is the protection of broader society, as <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/white-papers/intelligence-white-paper-01-jan-1995#:%7E:text=The%20goal%20of%20this%20White,relevant%2C%20credible%20and%20reliable%20intelligence.">required</a> by the 1994 White Paper.</p>
<h2>The dangers of over-broad definitions</h2>
<p>However, the new mandates given to the two new agencies, and the definitions they rely on, are so broad that abuse of their powerful spying capabilities is almost a foregone conclusion.</p>
<p>The bill says the new agencies will be responsible for collecting and analysing intelligence relating to threats or potential threats to national security in accordance with <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/chp11.html#:%7E:text=198.,to%20seek%20a%20better%20life.">the constitution</a>.</p>
<p>The bill defines national security as</p>
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<p>the capabilities, measures and activities of the state to pursue or advance any threat, any potential threat, any opportunity, any potential opportunity or the security of the Republic and its people …</p>
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<p>This definition is extremely expansive. It allows the intelligence services to undertake any activity that could advance South Africa’s interests. This is regardless of whether there are actual national security threats. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-watchdog-is-failing-civil-society-how-to-restore-its-credibility-195121">South Africa's intelligence watchdog is failing civil society. How to restore its credibility</a>
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<p>This creates the potential for overlap with the mandates of other state entities. However, unlike these, the intelligence agencies will be able to work secretly, using their extremely invasive <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-06-21-00-spy-wars-south-africa-is-not-innocent/">surveillance</a> <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-28-the-awful-state-of-lawful-interception-in-sa-part-two-surveillance-technology-thats-above-the-law/">capabilities</a>.</p>
<p>Such capabilities should only be used in exceptional circumstances when the country is under legitimate threat. To normalise their use in everyday government functions threatens democracy.</p>
<p>Intelligence overreach has happened elsewhere. Governments are increasingly requiring intelligence agencies to ensure that policymakers enjoy <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/national-security-surveillance-in-southern-africa-9780755640225/">decision advantages</a> in a range of areas. These include bolstering trade advantages over other countries.</p>
<p>For example, whistleblower <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistleblower-surveillance">Edward Snowden’s</a> leaks of classified US and UK intelligence documents showed how the countries misused broad interpretations of national security to engage in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/25907502">industrial espionage</a>.</p>
<p>The UK government used its powerful <a href="https://www.gchq.gov.uk/">signals intelligence capability</a> to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/12/08/british-spying-tentacles-reach-across-africa-s-heads-of-states-and-business-leaders_5045668_3212.html">spy on</a> African politicians, diplomats and business people during trade negotiations. These abuses mean intelligence mandates should be narrowed and state intelligence power should be reduced.</p>
<h2>Human security definition of national security</h2>
<p>The State Security Agency used its presentation to parliament on the bill to seek broad mandates. Its <a href="https://pmg.org.za/files/231129Presentation_of_GILAB_Final.pptx">presentation</a> says it seeks to give effect to the national security principles in <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/chp11.html#:%7E:text=198.,to%20seek%20a%20better%20life.">section 198</a> of the constitution. The section states that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>national security must reflect the resolve of South Africans, as individuals and as a nation, to live as equals, to live in peace and harmony, to be free from fear and want and to seek a better life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This principle is actually based on the human security definition of national security. The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ga/">United Nations General Assembly</a> calls this freedom from fear and freedom from want. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/surveillance-laws-are-failing-to-protect-privacy-rights-what-we-found-in-six-african-countries-170373">Surveillance laws are failing to protect privacy rights: what we found in six African countries</a>
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<p>In its broadest sense, human security protects individuals from a wide range of threats and addresses their underlying drivers. These include <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231962570_Critical_Human_Security_Studies">poverty, underdevelopment and deprivation</a>. State security, on the other hand, is about protecting the state from threats. </p>
<p>If social issues are <a href="https://www.libraryofsocialscience.com/assets/pdf/Waever-Securitization.pdf">securitised</a> – or treated as national security issues requiring intervention by the state’s security services – it becomes difficult to distinguish the work of these agencies from the social welfare arms of the state.</p>
<h2>What needs to happen</h2>
<p>International relations scholar Neil MacFarlane and political scientist Yuen Foong Khong <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000147585">suggested</a> in 2006 that it was possible to address this conundrum by maintaining the focus on broader society as the entity that needs protection, rather than the state. </p>
<p>Legislators need to take a <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000147585">similar approach</a> when debating the bill. They should narrow the focus of the envisaged two new agencies to domestic and foreign threats of organised violence against society, such as genocide or terrorism. By doing so, they would still be recognising the best of what human security has to offer as an intelligence doctrine, while providing a much more appropriate focus for civilian intelligence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Duncan receives funding from the British Academy and is a director of Intelwatch, a non-governmental organisation devoted to strengthening democratic oversight of state and private intelligence. </span></em></p>The bill seeks greater intelligence powers but neglects oversight.Jane Duncan, Professor of Digital Society, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196442023-12-29T11:41:56Z2023-12-29T11:41:56ZThree-day week, 50 years on: lessons from a previous Conservative government struggling with a cost of living crisis<p>Midwinter. War in the Middle East. Energy crisis. Rising prices borne disproportionately by low-wage workers, particularly in a public sector squeezed by a “Tories in turmoil” UK government.</p>
<p>Not December 2023, in fact, but December 1973, as Britain prepared for the <a href="https://www.theblackoutreport.co.uk/2023/04/17/three-day-week-1974/">three-day working week</a> that commenced on January 1. It arose after the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), with 250,000-plus members, interrupted the usual supply of coal to power stations with an overtime ban. The union was pushing for an improved pay offer from the miners’ employer, the state-owned National Coal Board (NCB). </p>
<p>Edward Heath’s Conservative government was determined to resist the miners’ claim. Factories, offices and shops deemed non-essential, because they were not providing food, medicines or other everyday vitals, received a government directive to operate either from Monday to Wednesday or Thursday to Saturday. Domestic power was rationed too. Household demand for candles, gas and paraffin heaters, and cooking implements soared. There was also petrol rationing and a road speed-limit of 50mph. </p>
<p>The situation was unprecedented in peacetime Britain. Andy Beckett, in his excellent 2009 book <a href="https://www.faber.co.uk/product/9780571221370-when-the-lights-went-out/">When the Lights Went Out</a>, notes that economic output fell by 20%, while 1 million workers were made temporarily unemployed. </p>
<p>Despite the disruption, the miners enjoyed public support. This became evident when Heath called a general election, held on February 28 1974, seeking a fresh mandate for keeping public pay awards below the rate of inflation. A <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/background/pastelec/ge74feb.shtml">tight contest</a> ensued, from which a Labour government emerged led by Harold Wilson. His first actions included resolving the coal dispute on terms closer to the NUM’s claim than the NCB’s final offer, and ending the three-day week.</p>
<h2>What caused the crisis</h2>
<p>The crisis had been caused by the big switch in Britain’s energy market from coal to oil. Coal had been king as late as 1957, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/albion/article/abs/william-ashworth-the-history-of-the-british-coal-industry-volume-5-19461982-the-nationalized-industry-new-york-oxford-university-press-1986-pp-xix-710-9800/AF794D380C7AC27A8C47C3A3B76AAAE1">responsible for 80%</a> of energy consumed in Britain. The situation began shifting, however, with an increase in imported oil from the Middle East. </p>
<p>Oil was cheap, and its energy share shot up to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?country=%7EGBR">overtake coal in 1970</a>. Accompanied by the rise of natural gas and introduction of nuclear energy, the coal miners felt this transition was unjust. Employment in the mines had halved in the 1960s. Job alternatives in engineering and manufacturing were <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-labor-and-working-class-history/article/abs/deindustrialization-and-the-moral-economy-of-the-scottish-coalfields-1947-to-1991/73664BE8653D220C05699216805A7F24">not growing</a> quickly enough to absorb further redundancies.</p>
<p><strong>UK energy consumption, 1965-2022</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing UK energy consumption by source since 1965" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564851/original/file-20231211-19-n58nsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?time=earliest..1983&country=~GBR">Our World in Data</a></span>
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<p>A new generation of leaders including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/1999/feb/01/guardianobituaries2">Michael McGahey</a>, president of the Scottish NUM and vice-president at UK level, resolved to resist further contraction of coal while fighting for improved wages. This appealed to young miners, who were conscious of their vital social role in powering Britain’s homes and workplaces. Their sense of injustice was piqued by friends and relatives earning more in easier factory jobs, assembling cars and consumer goods. </p>
<p>They first mobilised for a <a href="https://player.bfi.org.uk/free/film/watch-miners-strike-pickets-1972-online">national strike in 1972</a>, the first <a href="https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/General-Strike-1926/">since 1926</a>. Remembered most for the mass blockade of <a href="https://www.birminghammuseums.org.uk/stories/the-battle-of-saltley-gate">Saltley fuel depot</a> in Birmingham, this won the miners a big pay increase. By the autumn of 1973, however, with inflation <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/czbi">running at 10%</a>, most of this raise had been eroded. </p>
<p>The NUM’s overtime ban and the government’s radical reaction had an important additional trigger: the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Yom-Kippur-War">Yom Kippur war</a> between Israel and various Arab states and combatants in October 1973. The oil producers’ cartel, Opec, which mainly comprised Middle Eastern countries, sought to pressurise Israel and its allies in western Europe and North America by instigating production controls. This accelerated a <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/262858/change-in-opec-crude-oil-prices-since-1960/">major price-surge</a> in oil, from US$2 (£1.59) a barrel at the start of 1972 to US$11 (£8.74) two years later. </p>
<p>The 1950s and ’60s had seen the construction of dual-fuel power stations capable of running on coal and oil. Thanks to the surge in oil prices, they began running on coal only. This gave coal a sudden and unexpected advantage which the NUM exploited. Unsatisfied by wage negotiations and undeterred by the three-day week, the union stuck to its overtime ban. At the end of January 1974, members voted overwhelmingly for a continuous strike, starting on February 9. This was what prompted Heath to call the general election.</p>
<h2>The present day</h2>
<p>What is the significance of the three-day week today? Beckett argued that it made visible two important elements of the future of work. One was extended working time, with non-essential factories and offices running 12-hour shifts on their permitted days. This anticipated the intensified work that many employees experience today. </p>
<p>Changes in the gender profile of the workforce were also prefigured. At the time, women workers were disproportionately concentrated in essential services and retail. This meant they were employed normally during the three-day week, whereas there was enforced idleness among the greater clustering of men in non-essential industrial occupations. This trend increased as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13619462.2021.1972416">deindustrialisation</a> gathered pace in the 1980s. </p>
<p><strong>UK employment rate by gender, 1971-2021</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing male vs female employment rates in UK since 1970s" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564879/original/file-20231211-22-f2abeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/280120/employment-rate-in-the-uk-by-gender/">Statista</a></span>
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<p>Two further observations can be made, reflecting back on the three-day week being related to energy and the insecurity of essential workers. First, the energy supply remains insecure. The 1973 drama, while driven by the coal dispute, was aggravated by the external shock of Opec production controls and the five-fold oil price increase. </p>
<p>Our difficulties in 2023 are similarly multi-causal, but inflation and economic insecurity have been amplified, as in 1973, by oil and gas price hikes. This is partly because of embargoed imports arising from Russia’s war on Ukraine, but also the result of prices imposed on domestic and business users by private-sector energy providers in the UK.</p>
<p>Second, workers in healthcare, transport and other public services in the early 2020s have emulated the miners in disrupting everyday economic and social life through strikes. Just as in 1973-74, this action has <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/public-largely-supportive-of-the-right-of-public-workers-to-strike-but-also-support-required-minimum-service-levels/">carried public support</a> because it targets the manifest injustice of low and falling levels of real pay among essential workers.</p>
<p>If <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47879-voting-intention-con-21-lab-44-14-15-nov-2023">the polls</a> are accurate and Labour wins the next general election, likely to be held in 2024, popular unrest arising from wage and fuel insecurity will again have helped to defeat a Conservative government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Phillips has received funding from the Leverhulme Trust..</span></em></p>Fifty years ago, an under-pressure Tory leader’s battle with a powerful union triggered the introduction of restrictions to the working day.Jim Phillips, Professor of Economic and Social History, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193472023-12-08T15:25:48Z2023-12-08T15:25:48ZEisenhower’s Atoms for Peace speech on nuclear dangers has important lessons even after 70 years<p>Seventy years ago, on December 8 1953, US president Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered a <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">speech</a> to the United Nations general assembly, setting out his concerns about “atomic warfare”. </p>
<p>In the speech, later known as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxGSfOd1Dpc">Atoms for Peace</a>, he outlined a plan for new forms of international cooperation around nuclear technology, calling for “lasting peace for all nations, and happiness and well-being for all men”.</p>
<p>In 2023, nuclear technology has been very much in the headlines, from the potential of nuclear <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9825/">threats</a> during the war in Ukraine to <a href="https://theconversation.com/oppenheimer-the-actor-the-curious-1946-film-atomic-power-featuring-the-scientist-as-himself-210498">cinematically capturing</a> the history behind the first atomic bomb in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jul/22/oppenheimer-review-christopher-nolan-volatile-biopic-is-a-towering-achievement-cillian-murphy">Oppenheimer</a>. </p>
<p>The speech is largely forgotten but it fundamentally shaped the nuclear world we live in today, and remains highly relevant to how decision-makers engage with such cross-border developments as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/19/ai-regulation-development-us-china-competition-technology/">generative AI</a>. For all their differences, when they were created both nuclear reactors and AI represented <a href="https://brandoncornett.medium.com/6-unsettling-similarities-between-ai-and-nuclear-weapons-932277f9f59e">newly emerging technologies</a> that “spurred a global race for dominance”, fundamentally challenging existing systems and with potential for both peaceful and military uses. </p>
<h2>Why the speech happened</h2>
<p>In 1953, eight years after the second world war, an armistice concluded the <a href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/korean-war">Korean War</a> (1950-1953) but the wider cold war was characterised by an accelerating nuclear arms race. US nuclear technology was <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">under tight control</a>, restricting any exports, even to wartime allies. </p>
<p>Nuclear reactors mainly created fuel for warheads. The <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/outline-history-of-nuclear-energy.aspx#:%7E:text=The%20PWR%20used%20enriched%20uranium,Nautilus%2C%20was%20launched%20in%201954.">first power plants</a> and first nuclear submarines were only just being constructed.</p>
<p>Eisenhower’s speech, and the US <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">Atoms for Peace</a> programme that followed, completely changed this, proposing a sharing of technology and nuclear material with different countries. There was <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">wide dissemination</a> of Eisenhower’s words beyond the UN. </p>
<p>Hundreds of thousands of pamphlets of the speech were sent out, printed in ten languages. US and foreign media were inundated with <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">information and advertising</a>.</p>
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<h2>Public spread of ideas</h2>
<p>One of the speech’s public legacies was encouraging wider public engagement with the idea of what “nuclear” actually was. This inspired new popular culture and educational materials promoting ideas of atomic-powered futures, such as the iconic Walt Disney 1956 <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-021-00284-1">science book</a> and TV programme <a href="https://expo.uoregon.edu/spotlight/tomorrows-scientists/feature/our-friend-the-atom">Our Friend the Atom</a>. </p>
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<p>Eisenhower’s speech called for a UN-based International Atomic Energy Agency (<a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/overview/history#:%7E:text=The%20Agency's%20genesis%20was%20U.S.,the%20International%20Atomic%20Energy%20Agency.">IAEA</a>), eventually founded in 1957, promoting peaceful nuclear use while discouraging weapons proliferation. It remains a crucial international entity in nuclear verification, nuclear safety, and promotion of peaceful uses of <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/11/06/why-does-iaea-do-what-it-does-pub-74689">nuclear technology</a>, most recently through activities such as monitoring the safety of the <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-200-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine">Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant</a> during the Ukraine war. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.neimagazine.com/features/feature60-years-of-atoms-for-peace-4164653/">Paradoxically</a>, however, Atoms for Peace also had opposite effects. The reactors and technical expertise, supplied for civilian energy or research, provided crucial foundations for proliferation. </p>
<p>The tools and knowledge were repurposed by some countries to develop their own nuclear weapons, including, in the first instance, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">India and Pakistan</a>. Israel is <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9075/">widely believed</a> to have benefited, although it continues to deny it has nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>One of the speech’s most visible impacts was in signalling, both to domestic and international audiences, a significant change in US policy towards supplying other nations with nuclear science. </p>
<p>It paved the way for the restrictive <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">US Atomic Energy Act to be revised</a> the following year, to allow sharing of technology and building of reactors in different countries. This significantly increased global development of nuclear power and nuclear research in areas from <a href="https://www.neimagazine.com/features/feature60-years-of-atoms-for-peace-4164653/">agriculture to medicine</a>.</p>
<p>However, it’s worth remembering that Atoms for Peace took place in parallel with a wider US cold war strategy of pursuing nuclear superiority. Just over a month before his UN speech, Eisenhower approved a significant expansion in America’s nuclear arsenal. </p>
<p>Warhead numbers increased from around <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0096340213501363">1,100 to more than 18,000</a> during his presidency. He also considered the potential use of nuclear weapons in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1984/06/08/world/us-papers-tell-of-53-policy-to-use-a-bomb-in-korea.html">conventional conflicts</a>. </p>
<h2>Peaceful shared plans</h2>
<p>Eisenhower also tried to set up an international <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">uranium bank</a>, with US and Soviet joint contributions from their stockpiles of “normal uranium and <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">fissionable materials</a>”. These would be contributed to a pool, shared with other countries for peaceful purposes, both to help restrict the arms race and “provide abundant electrical energy in the power-starved <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">areas of the world</a>”.</p>
<p>However, this bank was <a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/neff.pdf">never created</a>, partly because of Soviet concerns that it would continue to allow US leadership of nuclear weapons technology. Instead, bilateral agreements were struck to supply nuclear energy and materials.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, spreading “peaceful” technology, supplying nuclear reactors and material for energy and civil research, became a cold war and commercial “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00076791.2020.1845316">weapon</a>”, aiming to tie uranium and technology exports to fulfilling conditions or continued dependence on the selling countries to supply fuel.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">Are small nuclear reactors the solution to Canada’s net-zero ambitions?</a>
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<p>Ironically, this echoed one US fear which had helped motivate Atoms for Peace: the prospect of the <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">Soviet Union sharing nuclear energy</a> as a way of influencing other countries and creating alliances.</p>
<p>These developments are particular relevant today. Russian attacks on Ukraine’s <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/17/what-comes-after-russia-s-attack-on-ukrainian-nuclear-power-station-pub-86667">nuclear power plants</a> during the current war have received much attention, but what is less well known is Russia’s nuclear energy empire, with contracts and construction spanning 54 countries.</p>
<p>This has remained “largely below the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5">sanctions radar</a>”, while remaining a significant source of international influence for Russia. </p>
<h2>Nuclear’s reach today</h2>
<p>As of <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx">November 2023</a>, approximately 10% of the world’s energy was supplied from more than 400 nuclear reactors, while 40 million nuclear medical procedures are <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/house-documents/parliament-42/session-2/2021-11-02/hansard-1">performed each year</a>, using radioactive materials to diagnose or treat different diseases.</p>
<p>In 2023, policymakers continue grappling with related nuclear issues, whether proposals for new small modular <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">nuclear reactors</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/moon-rolls-royce-nuclear-reactor-concept-unveiled">nuclear power in space</a>, debates around <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/role-nuclear-power-energy-mix-reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/">potential for nuclear power</a> in addressing climate change or fears of <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/08/29/a-new-nuclear-arms-race-looms">new nuclear arms races</a>. </p>
<p>Faced with such challenges, <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">Eisenhower’s words</a>: “If a danger exists in the world, it is a danger shared by all; and equally, that if hope exists in the mind of one nation, that hope should be shared by all” seem as relevant today, as they did in 1953.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Noël Peacock is a Lecturer in History and War studies, and Co-Director of the Games and Gaming Lab at the University of Glasgow.</span></em></p>A climate of fear about international war inspired Eisenhower’s Atoms of Peace speech in 1953, his words about global peace seem relevant to global peace today.Timothy Noël Peacock, Lecturer in History, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181482023-11-21T16:54:45Z2023-11-21T16:54:45ZItaly’s far-right claim The Lord of the Rings – but they’ve misread Tolkien’s message<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560365/original/file-20231120-27-v478qj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=125%2C116%2C5865%2C3871&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Region of Mordor on the map of Middle-earth.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/region-mordor-on-map-middleearth-2307612455">Erman Gunes/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Italian prime minister <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Giorgia-Meloni">Giorgia Meloni</a> and I have precious little in common. But one important thing we share is The Lord of the Rings. Both she and I regard the J.R.R. Tolkien trilogy as a personal “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/16/tolkiens-biggest-fan-italys-giorgia-meloni-opens-new-exhibit/">sacred text</a>” which has profoundly shaped our values and our political commitments. </p>
<p>Speaking as a queer, leftist theologian, however, the tricky thing about sacred texts is this: when you come to them searching for echoes of your own beliefs, with a little digging <a href="https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/43275654/a-new-teaching-with-authority-pacific-school-of-religion">you can usually find something</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that the leader of a far-right political party and I can both come to The Lord of the Rings and find sustenance for our imaginations suggests one of two things. Either Middle-earth is wide and wild enough to admit multiple interpretations, or one of us is reading it wrong.</p>
<p>Conservative Tolkien scholars have frequently claimed the latter. As Joseph Pearce writes in his foreword to Bradley Birzer’s book <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/J_R_R_Tolkien_s_Sanctifying_Myth.html?id=TyKDAwAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">Tolkien’s Sanctifying Myth</a> (2003), it is “not merely erroneous but patently perverse to see Tolkien’s epic as anything other than a specifically Christian myth”. </p>
<p>J.R.R. Tolkien was a devout Roman Catholic. In <a href="https://bibliothecaveneficae.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/the_letters_of_j.rrtolkien.pdf">a 1954 letter</a> to the Jesuit Robert Murray, he described his trilogy as a “fundamentally religious and Catholic work”.</p>
<p>Tolkien was a particular kind of Catholic. Pre-<a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Second-Vatican-Council">Vatican II era</a> (the most recent council of the Catholic Church) and English, he shared his tradition’s deep suspicion of modernity. </p>
<p>Middle-earth, with its ranked orders of elves and angels, and distinctions between High and Low Men, was influenced by the medieval Catholic notion of the <a href="http://dimitrafimi.com/2018/12/02/revisiting-race-in-tolkiens-legendarium-constructing-cultures-and-ideologies-in-an-imaginary-world/">Great Chain of Being</a> in which God ordains natural hierarchy in the cosmos. </p>
<p>It’s because of this that some of today’s far-right claim Tolkien as one of their own, arguing that his work underwrites values such as reactionary nationalism, rigid gender roles and the use of state violence to enforce cultural homogeneity.</p>
<h2>Interpreting The Lord of the Rings</h2>
<p>In his book <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-reactionary-mind-9780190692001">The Reactionary Mind</a> (2011), political theorist <a href="https://twitter.com/CoreyRobin?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Corey Robin</a> argues that conservatism is, at its root, the defence of hierarchy. It would therefore be intellectually dishonest to deny that The Lord of the Rings could have certain right-wing interpretations. </p>
<p>If you are a neofascist, for example, looking to justify xenophobia and racism, you can latch onto Tolkien’s troubling tendency to cast nonwhite characters in the role of evil. If you are a reactionary Catholic who longs for a <a href="https://theimaginativeconservative.org/2020/11/christian-humanism-j-r-r-tolkien-bradley-birzer.html">restoration of the Holy Roman Empire</a>, you can read Aragorn’s return and coronation as justification for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/theocracy">theocracy</a>. These things are an inescapable part of the text.</p>
<p>However, if you wish to produce such a reading of The Lord of the Rings, you will have to ignore a lot of other things about the text too.</p>
<p>The fact, for instance, that the <a href="https://lotr.fandom.com/wiki/War_of_the_Ring">War of the Ring</a> requires cooperation between diverse peoples, from diverse backgrounds, with diverse goals, in order to confront a common threat.</p>
<p>Or the fact that <a href="https://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Sauron">Sauron</a> and <a href="https://lotr.fandom.com/wiki/Saruman">Saruman</a> seek to impose their will through forced industrialisation, brutal oppression of subject populations and naked violence on a mass scale – all favourite weapons of the far right. (The <a href="https://lotr.fandom.com/wiki/Ents">Ents</a> even rise up against their mechanising oppressors and drown their factories).</p>
<p>Then there’s the fact that the plot hinges around the <a href="https://lotr.fandom.com/wiki/One_Ring">One Ring</a>, an object with the power to dominate which corrupts all who seek to wield it and which must be destroyed – not deployed – in order to overcome the forces of evil once and for all.</p>
<p>And the fact that the salvation of the world is brought about not by force of arms, but by the dogged persistence and fierce love of the small and powerless, by pity for the pitiless and mercy upon the merciless. These are, to my mind, far more “fundamentally religious and Catholic” ideas than racialised hierarchy is.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="J. R. R. Tolkien" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560368/original/file-20231120-15-dwico7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">J. R. R. Tolkien in the 1920s on leaving Leeds University.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._R._R._Tolkien#/media/File:J._R._R._Tolkien,_ca._1925.jpg">Bodleian Library</a></span>
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<p>In a <a href="https://dc.swosu.edu/mythlore/vol42/iss1/3/">recent paper, I argued</a> that The Lord of the Rings is too open to interpretation – and too enchanting – to collapse into a single authoritative meaning. </p>
<p>In his foreword to the second edition of The Lord of the Rings, Tolkien defends “the freedom of the reader” against reductive readings. He was far more concerned that readers take his novel on its own terms as a work of art, rather than arrive at some objectively “correct” interpretation. There is, quite simply, no one “right” way to read Tolkien – but, in my opinion, there are wrong ones.</p>
<p>There are readings that ignore what’s in the text, twisting it to suit the reader’s own religious, cultural and political purposes. Far-right readings of The Lord of the Rings do not come from nowhere. But they are far from the only solution to the riddle of Middle-earth’s enduring power. Tolkien was savvy enough to realise that his imaginative reconstruction of a mythic past was fiction. Reactionary ideologues lack any such self awareness. </p>
<p>Far-right readings of The Lord of the Rings are therefore wrong in the sense that they are technically bad interpretations. More importantly to my mind, however, they are ethically wrong. There is nothing in Middle-earth – not even its most troubling elements – which requires readers to take it as an argument for far-right nationalism. That interpretation is a choice – and it must be resisted. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Emanuel receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC).</span></em></p>Tolkien was far more concerned that we take his novel on its own terms as a work of art than that we arrive at some correct interpretation.Tom Emanuel, PhD Candidate, English literature, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173902023-11-15T09:05:21Z2023-11-15T09:05:21ZHow governments use IMF bailouts to hurt political opponents – new research<p>Sri Lanka <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/10/19/pr23357-sri-lanka-imf-reaches-sla-on-the-review-of-sri-lanka-extended-fund-facility-arrangement">received a bailout</a> from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March amid soaring inflation, debt and a sovereign default. </p>
<p>In exchange for US$3 billion (£2.4 billion), the government committed to spending cuts and tax and financial sector reforms. These have prevented Sri Lankan wages from recovering after they fell <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sri-lanka-government-imf-austerity-deal-will-exacerbate-debt-crisis-by-jayati-ghosh-and-kanchana-n-ruwanpura-2023-09">by almost half</a> in real terms during the preceding financial crisis, leading to protests in the streets of Colombo. </p>
<p>Sri Lankans’ experience of these measures has been far from uniform. Emerging evidence indicates that the government — led by Ranil Wickremesinghe, part of the Buddhist Sinhalese majority — has concentrated the burdens primarily on ethnic minorities, <a href="https://borgenproject.org/tamil-poverty-in-sri-lanka/#:%7E:text=Poverty%20in%20Sri%20Lanka%20affects,lower%20access%20to%20essential%20services.">who are the poorest</a> in Sri Lanka and typically support the opposition. </p>
<p>The government has sought to protect the elite, which is primarily Buddhist Sinhalese, by avoiding imposing wealth taxes and only making small increases in corporation tax. It has placed the costs of austerity on low-income people by doubling the value-added tax rate to 15%. </p>
<p>It has also doubled the tax that people pay on pension-fund returns. Again, this hits poor ethnic minorities hardest because <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sri-lanka-government-imf-austerity-deal-will-exacerbate-debt-crisis-by-jayati-ghosh-and-kanchana-n-ruwanpura-2023-09">they frequently earn</a> too little to pay income tax. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this experience is part of a worldwide pattern. Our new book, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/abs/imf-lending/14E6106B4EF6D335C1C7404E4C7E5313">IMF Lending: Partisanship, Punishment and Protest</a>, shows how governments lump the burden of adjustment on opposition supporters while shielding their own backers – in other words, using IMF programmes for political gain.</p>
<h2>IMF programmes and past research</h2>
<p>Scholars have long noted that IMF restructuring programmes create winners and losers, but always in relation to different sectors of the economy. For example, the fact that programmes attempt to strengthen exports <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000078">has been shown</a> to favour farmers and business owners over urban middle-class state employees like civil servants. </p>
<p>The problem with purely comparing sectors is highlighted when you look at citizens’ experiences. One segment of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/abs/imf-lending/14E6106B4EF6D335C1C7404E4C7E5313">the survey data</a> we used in our research, covering nine countries in Africa, showed that three out of ten civil servants actually thought IMF reforms made their lives better, while a similar proportion observed no difference. </p>
<p>Admittedly this data is from 1999-2001, since none of the more recent surveys that we used asked this question, but it raises an important point: if IMF reforms are entirely bad for the civil service, why are so many civil servants upbeat about the effects? Politics is likely to be the missing piece of the puzzle.</p>
<p><strong>Citizens’ views of IMF programmes in their countries</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing how citizens viewed IMF programmes in their countries" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558596/original/file-20231109-23-r1i95d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Based on 659 civil servants from Afrobarometer (1999-2001), covering Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/survey-resource/merged-round-1-data-12-countries-1999-2001">Afrobarometer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An extensive academic literature already shows that governments often use their discretion to play politics over development loans. For example, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.04.003">recent study</a> found that projects funded by Chinese money are more likely to be undertaken in the birth region of a political leader. </p>
<p>With IMF programmes, it’s commonly assumed that they narrow borrowing governments’ policy options, but that is an oversimplification. Borrowers certainly have less overall freedom over economic policy, but they maintain broad discretion in how they implement loan conditions. Our study is the first to quantify how they use this discretion and examine the consequences for protests within the countries in question.</p>
<h2>Our study</h2>
<p>We collected individual survey data from over 100 countries from four widely used sources: <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/">Afrobarometer</a>, <a href="https://www.asianbarometer.org/">Asian Barometer</a>, <a href="https://www.latinobarometro.org/lat.jsp">Latinobarómetro</a> and the <a href="https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp">World Values Surveys</a>. It covers a 40-year timespan up to the late 2010s, with periods varying from region to region. </p>
<p>We first examined whether opposition supporters had different experiences of reforms than government supporters. Sure enough, these were indeed more negative. </p>
<p>We worried this might be because these people are more critical of their governments in general. So we compared countries which had just experienced a restructuring programme with others which had not, and found that sentiment among opposition supporters was much more negative in borrower countries. </p>
<p>The following graph provides an explanation, showing that opposition supporters in countries on IMF programmes suffer relatively more deprivation than government supporters compared to countries not in programmes. </p>
<p><strong>Partisan deprivation in IMF v non-IMF countries</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing how opposition supporters are affected by IMF programmes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559292/original/file-20231114-15-d5i0ol.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Based on 101,055 individuals from 46 countries surveyed in 2011-18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp">World Values Survey</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This “partisan gap” was also wider in countries who went through a more burdensome recent IMF adjustment, which points to the same conclusion. </p>
<p><strong>Partisan deprivation by severity of IMF restructuring</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing deprivation of opposition supporters in less and more severe IMF programmes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559293/original/file-20231114-6026-o19zre.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Based on 101,055 individuals from 46 countries surveyed in 2011-18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp">World Values Survey</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The effect on protest</h2>
<p>We expected that this highly unequal treatment would increase the chances of protest – especially when stoked by opposition politicians. This too was robustly supported across the surveys. </p>
<p>In Africa, people who reported being worse off due to the structural adjustment programme were more likely to protest. Opposition supporters as a whole were also more likely to protest, especially if the country had just experienced a more severe IMF programme. </p>
<p>Again, this data was from 1999-2001. Nonetheless, the other surveys also showed that protest was more likely among opposition supporters, especially during times of high pressure for adjustment.</p>
<h2>What can be done</h2>
<p>Scholars normally blame the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11558-020-09405-x">increase in inequality</a> caused by IMF programmes on the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0049089X18300802?via%3Dihub">loan conditions</a>, but the effects are clearly amplified by governments’ policy choices. How could this situation be improved? The IMF could require borrower countries to impose loan conditions in a non-partisan way, but would probably argue that its mandate prohibits considering domestic politics. Policing this would also be very difficult and time-consuming. </p>
<p>An alternative would be for the IMF to tame its demands on borrower countries. This would reduce the burdens that could be inflicted on opposition supporters. Economists might warn that this could encourage countries to be more financially irresponsible. Equally, however, it ought to make it more likely that adjustment programmes will be completed, thereby making the borrowing country more economically resilient for the future. It would also avoid any <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/rego.12422">adverse reaction</a> from the financial markets against a country breaking conditions. </p>
<p>Another potential avenue is to let opposition parties and civil society organisations participate in bailout negotiations. This would ensure everyone “owns” the bailout, and might even make it harder for incumbent governments to exploit policy conditions for political gain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sri Lanka is just one of a number of countries in which IMF loan conditions appear to be mainly burdening supporters of the opposition.M. Rodwan Abouharb, Associate Professor in International Relations, UCLBernhard Reinsberg, Reader in Politics, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170172023-11-06T09:28:09Z2023-11-06T09:28:09Z¿Cómo surge la vida de la materia inerte? Una nueva teoría intenta aclarar el misterio<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557441/original/file-20231023-23-dbncio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1670%2C53%2C4113%2C3934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mother-panda-her-baby-snuggling-eating-1839520114">Daniel X D/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>La física moderna puede explicarlo todo, desde el <em>spin</em> de la partícula más diminuta hasta el comportamiento de cúmulos enteros de galaxias. Pero <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-mysteries-of-physics-5-will-we-ever-have-a-fundamental-theory-of-life-and-consciousness-203127">no puede explicar la vida</a>. No existe ninguna fórmula que establezca la diferencia entre un trozo de materia viva y otro inerte. La vida parece “surgir” misteriosamente de componentes no vivos, como las partículas elementales. </p>
<p>La teoría del ensamblaje, cuyas líneas básicas han sido <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06600-9">publicadas recientemente en <em>Nature</em></a>, es un audaz enfoque para explicar la vida a la escala más fundamental. Parte de dos conceptos clave: la complejidad y la información (como la que contiene ADN). La nueva teoría permite entender cómo surgen ambos en los sistemas químicos. </p>
<p>“Emergencia” es una palabra que los físicos utilizan para explicar algo que es más grande que la suma de sus partes. Por ejemplo, cómo el agua puede percibirse húmeda cuando las moléculas individuales de agua no los son. La humedad, entonces, es una propiedad emergente.</p>
<p>Aunque es una teoría elegante desde el punto de vista matemático, sólo puede ser fiable si se pone a prueba en el laboratorio. Para que las abstracciones de la hipótesis del ensamblaje se basen en la realidad química, es esencial realizar experimentos cuidadosamente diseñados, como el que estamos llevando a cabo mis colegas y yo.</p>
<p>En el núcleo de la teoría del ensamblaje está la idea de que los objetos pueden definirse no como entidades inmutables, sino a través de la historia de cómo se formaron. Esto nos lleva a los procesos mediante los cuales se construyen configuraciones complejas a partir de bloques de construcción más simples. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554281/original/file-20231017-21-fti245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Los bloques de construcción pueden ensamblarse como el lego para crear moléculas de vida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Crédito de la imagen Dra. Anna Tanczos, Sci - Comm Studios.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La teoría propone un “índice de ensamblaje” que <a href="https://theconversation.com/life-modern-physics-cant-explain-it-but-our-new-theory-which-says-time-is-fundamental-might-203129">cuantifica los pasos mínimos</a>, o el camino más corto, necesarios para construir un objeto. Esta medida mide el grado de “selección” indispensable para producir un conjunto de objetos, en referencia a la memoria –como el ADN– necesaria para crear seres vivos.</p>
<p>Al fin y al cabo, los seres vivos no surgen espontáneamente, como el helio en las estrellas. Requieren el ADN como modelo para crear nuevas versiones.</p>
<h2>Quince pasos para crear una molécula de vida</h2>
<p>Pero ¿cómo podrían comprobarse experimentalmente estas construcciones teóricas?
Un aspecto clave de la nueva teoría <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23258-x">ya se ha probado en nuestro laboratorio</a>. Se trata de la determinación del índice de ensamblaje mediante espectrometría de masas, una herramienta analítica que permite medir la relación entre la masa y la carga de las moléculas. </p>
<p>Fragmentando moléculas y analizando sus espectros de masas podemos estimar su índice de ensamblaje. O sea, podemos ver literalmente cuántos pasos necesitan los distintos fragmentos para unirse y formar una molécula determinada. Dicho índice también puede medirse con otras técnicas, como la espectroscopía infrarroja y la espectroscopía de resonancia magnética nuclear.</p>
<p>En nuestra investigación hemos podido determinar el índice de ensamblaje para una serie de moléculas, en el laboratorio y mediante simulaciones computacionales. Nuestro trabajo demuestra que las moléculas asociadas a la vida, como las hormonas y los metabolitos (productos de las reacciones metabólicas), son realmente más complejas y requieren más información para ensamblarse que las moléculas que no se vinculan exclusivamente a la vida, como el dióxido de carbono. </p>
<p>De hecho, hemos demostrado que un índice de ensamblaje superior a 15 pasos <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23258-x">sólo se encuentra</a> en las moléculas relacionadas con los seres vivos, tal y como sugiere la teoría.</p>
<p>La hipótesis del ensamblaje también propone ideas sobre el origen de la vida que pueden someterse a comprobación. Según postula, hay un punto en el que las moléculas se vuelven tan complejas que empiezan a utilizar información para hacer copias de sí mismas –de repente requieren memoria e información–, una especie de umbral en el que la vida surge de la no vida. </p>
<p>En última instancia, puede ocurrir que sistemas no biológicos adquieran capacidad de selección y una memoria mínima (igual que el Sol formó los planetas juntando una gran cantidad de masa). Pero no es posible la existencia de organismos vivos o la tecnología que estos crean, desde el Lego a la ciencia espacial, sin altos niveles de memoria y capacidad de selección.</p>
<h2>Sopa química</h2>
<p>Tenemos previsto investigar más a fondo este origen de la vida creando una especie de sopa química en nuestro laboratorio. En dicha sopa podrían crearse moléculas totalmente nuevas a lo largo del tiempo, ya sea añadiendo diversos reactivos o por azar, mientras controlamos su índice de ensamblaje y el crecimiento del sistema. Ajustando las velocidades de reacción y las condiciones, podríamos estudiar ese fascinante punto de transición de la no vida a la vida, y averiguar si sigue las predicciones de la teoría del ensamblaje.</p>
<p>También estamos diseñando “generadores de sopa química”, que mezclan sustancias químicas simples para obtener otras complejas. Estos generadores pueden ayudarnos a comprender mejor cómo puede construirse la complejidad con la teoría del ensamblaje y cómo puede iniciarse la selección fuera de la biología. </p>
<p>Esto podría darnos alguna pista sobre cómo evolucionó la vida por primera vez, comenzando con una selección mínima y requiriendo luego cada vez más. En condiciones idénticas, ¿se construyen los objetos de forma predecible? ¿O entra en juego el azar en algún momento? Esto nos ayudaría a entender si la aparición de la vida es determinista y predecible o, por el contrario, resulta más caótica. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=212%2C53%2C7726%2C4095&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=212%2C53%2C7726%2C4095&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555340/original/file-20231023-27-sfk4bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">La vida es especial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/elephant-herd-giraffes-walking-towards-trees-2198008341">jinnawat tawong/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La teoría del ensamblaje podría aplicarse más allá de las moléculas, inspirando estudios sobre otros sistemas que dependen de combinaciones, como agregados de materiales, polímeros o química artificial. Esto podría dar lugar a nuevos conocimientos científicos o innovaciones tecnológicas. Podría revelar patrones sutiles mediante los que las moléculas por encima de un índice de ensamblaje mínimo poseen determinadas propiedades de manera desproporcionada. </p>
<p>También sería posible utilizar la teoría para estudiar la propia evolución. Los investigadores podrían explorar el papel de los fragmentos de células en el proceso de formación de una célula global, surgidos a su vez de moléculas más pequeñas que se combinan para formar aminoácidos y nucleótidos. Rastrear la aparición de redes metabólicas y genéticas de este modo podría ofrecer pistas sobre las transiciones en la historia evolutiva. </p>
<p>Rastrear cómo se ensamblan los objetos exige un seguimiento experimental preciso, pero puede merecer la pena. La teoría del ensamblaje promete una comprensión radicalmente nueva de la materia, con la posibilidad de descubrir principios universales de construcción jerárquica que trascienden la biología.</p>
<p>Las configuraciones complejas de la materia quizá no sean objetos inmutables, sino puntos de referencia en un proceso abierto de construcción que se propaga a través del tiempo. El universo puede obedecer ciertas leyes físicas, pero en última instancia es creativo.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Cronin recibe fondos de EPSRC, Templeton Foundation, DARPA, ERC, industry.</span></em></p>La vida parece “emerger” de componentes inertes como las partículas elementales. La nueva teoría del ensamblaje arroja luz sobre este profundo enigma de la ciencia.Lee Cronin, Regius Chair of Chemistry, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155572023-10-31T16:47:04Z2023-10-31T16:47:04ZWhy converting office space into flats won’t solve the housing crisis<p>The UK government is proposing to further relax planning rules as part of its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/long-term-plan-for-housing">long-term plan for housing</a>. The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities aims to extend what are known as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/permitted-development-rights">“permitted development rights” (PDR)</a> in England. This would widen a previous relaxation of planning rules to encourage developers and builders to convert empty commercial spaces into housing. </p>
<p>It is being seen as a response to multiple councils across England which have declared <a href="https://theconversation.com/birminghams-bankruptcy-is-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-local-authorities-across-england-are-at-risk-212912">bankruptcy</a> (or are warning they might). The housing crisis in England is increasingly being singled out as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/30/councils-in-england-facing-bankruptcy-as-lack-of-housing-pushes-up-costs">the most serious threat</a> to local government solvency. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, homelessness is on the rise, private tenants are increasingly priced out of the rental market, home owners are struggling to pay mortgages and councils are struggling to provide the requisite support.</p>
<p>But, <a href="http://offlinehbpl.hbpl.co.uk/NewsAttachments/RLP/RICSExtendingPermittedDevelopmentRights.pdf">research</a> shows that buildings converted into homes under PDR provide significantly worse residential quality, particularly in terms of size, amenity space and location, than homes given full planning permission.</p>
<p>The loss of local authority oversight that extending PDR would bring will only make the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/15/young-adults-uk-housing">housing quality crisis</a> worse. Furthermore, converting offices into housing is unlikely to significantly boost housing supply in line with need. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An empty city street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556685/original/file-20231030-19-1ip5mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556685/original/file-20231030-19-1ip5mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556685/original/file-20231030-19-1ip5mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556685/original/file-20231030-19-1ip5mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556685/original/file-20231030-19-1ip5mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556685/original/file-20231030-19-1ip5mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556685/original/file-20231030-19-1ip5mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COVID has resulted in some central office districts being emptier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/gray-concrete-road-between-high-rise-buildings-during-daytime-HoupC-zHlLo">Ben Garratt|Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Previous changes to planning</h2>
<p>The UK government <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN00485/SN00485.pdf">trialled</a> PDR in May 2013, primarily to encourage converting offices to housing. This was made permanent in 2016. While developers in England were previously required to submit detailed plans and apply for full planning permission for this, the changes meant they only had to notify the local planning authority.</p>
<p>Conversions of offices to housing under PDR have contributed <a href="https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTE5YWQ3MDYtZmFjMC00N2YwLWIxM2EtYWY2NTk1NjExYjgwIiwidCI6ImJmMzQ2ODEwLTljN2QtNDNkZS1hODcyLTI0YTJlZjM5OTVhOCJ9">81,282 homes (net)</a> in England since 2015. Although data for specific changes of use (from office to housing, say) is not available before 2015, overall <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/659529/Housing_Supply_England_2016-17.pdf">net change of use</a> provided approximately 12,500 homes per year before 2013. </p>
<p>After PDR was introduced, conversions of offices peaked at 17,751 in 2016-17. In 2021-2022, however, this change of use accounted for just 8,359 units (3.6%) of <a href="https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTE5YWQ3MDYtZmFjMC00N2YwLWIxM2EtYWY2NTk1NjExYjgwIiwidCI6ImJmMzQ2ODEwLTljN2QtNDNkZS1hODcyLTI0YTJlZjM5OTVhOCJ9">net additional housing</a> in England. </p>
<p>The majority of PDR conversions in England have been <a href="http://offlinehbpl.hbpl.co.uk/NewsAttachments/RLP/RICSExtendingPermittedDevelopmentRights.pdf">small-scale</a> (below 10 units). In other words, the number of homes it can ultimately provide pales in comparison to the government’s target of <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7671/">300,000</a> new homes per year.</p>
<p>Vacant office space across the UK is higher than before the pandemic, but the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cjres/article/15/3/597/6670650?login=true#386609022">picture is mixed</a>. Companies still want the <a href="https://content.knightfrank.com/research/2386/documents/en/uk-cities-2023-9882.pdf">best</a> quality office space to bolster branding, staff retention and sustainability credentials. </p>
<p>Office vacancy rates in <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/q2-2023-central-london-office-market-report">central London</a> were 9.4% in the second financial quarter of 2023. This is significantly higher than the long-term average of 5.5%. However, underlying demand remains relatively high. During the same period, the <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/q2-2023-central-london-office-market-report">highest level</a> of space under offer by occupiers since 2019 was recorded.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Office workers in front of a wall of windows." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556821/original/file-20231031-27-7p2bl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556821/original/file-20231031-27-7p2bl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556821/original/file-20231031-27-7p2bl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556821/original/file-20231031-27-7p2bl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556821/original/file-20231031-27-7p2bl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556821/original/file-20231031-27-7p2bl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556821/original/file-20231031-27-7p2bl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-specification offices in prime city centre locations are still sought after.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/person-sitting-beside-table-HXOllTSwrpM">Ant Rozetsky|Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Converting offices is not straightforward</h2>
<p>Office vacancy rates do not necessarily translate into empty buildings, or even readily convertible sections. Office conversions is also a typically <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/myths-about-converting-offices-into-housing-and-what-can-really-revitalize-downtowns/">costly</a> endeavour. </p>
<p>Large buildings are physically complex to adapt for housing, particularly in ensuring <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305900622000848#bib85">natural light and ventilation</a> reach windowless central parts of the internal floor area. Developers also have to <a href="https://lichfields.uk/media/2493/departments-to-apartments.pdf">install</a> additional cabling and piping for domestic use. There are also new requirements regarding external cladding. Many office buildings are thus not <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/empty-offices-housing-1.6736171">practical or commercially viable</a> to convert.</p>
<p>What’s more, land in central office districts remains valuable. Even if converting an office building is viable, high construction costs and interest rates mean the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230817-major-cities-are-now-with-filled-with-empty-office-buildings-what-happens-next">necessary asking price</a> for properties would likely exclude the private housing market where <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7671/CBP-7671.pdf">need</a> is greatest – that of first homes. </p>
<p>Lastly, offices tend to lack the <a href="https://re.public.polimi.it/handle/11311/1053285">features or development potential</a> that have, to date, made older, industrial buildings attractive for <a href="https://www.savills.co.uk/blog/article/227395/residential-property/why-buy-a-warehouse-conversion.aspx">conversion to luxury homes</a>. And there’s also the wider problem that <a href="https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/modus/built-environment/commercial-real-estate/office-residential-conversion.html">central</a> office districts often do not have the amenities which residents expect in their neighbourhoods either – including schools, GP surgeries, and parks.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://content.knightfrank.com/research/2386/documents/en/uk-cities-2023-9882.pdf">office markets polarising</a> as demand concentrates on high-end spaces, offices targeted for conversion by developers are likely to be older buildings in locations such as edge-of-town industrial parks. There have been well-publicised examples of councils, such as Harlow, in the south-east of England, placing social tenants in <a href="https://www.hometodiefor.co.uk/">hastily converted</a>, isolated office blocks, such as Shield House and <a href="https://www.thebrutalist.co.uk/office/terminus-house-harlow/">Terminus House</a>. </p>
<p>The resulting dire living conditions have seen such developments variously labelled <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/27/housing-crisis-planning-converting-office-blocks-homes-catastrophe-jenrick">“open prisons”</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-47720887">“human warehouses”</a> and the <a href="https://www.tcpa.org.uk/collection/campaign-for-healthy-homes/">“slums of the future”</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A public square with high rise buildings under a grey sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556816/original/file-20231031-19-hfvpgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556816/original/file-20231031-19-hfvpgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556816/original/file-20231031-19-hfvpgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556816/original/file-20231031-19-hfvpgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556816/original/file-20231031-19-hfvpgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556816/original/file-20231031-19-hfvpgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556816/original/file-20231031-19-hfvpgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harlow’s Market Square, with Adams House and Terminus House (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Market_Square%2C_Harlow%2C_Essex_-_viewed_from_the_north-west.jpg">Mutney|Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Housing of this kind, which fails to meet even basic human needs, risks further entrenching the socio-economic inequalities driving the housing crisis. This crisis is multi-faceted. It encompasses supply, affordability and quality, which are each <a href="https://www.centreforcities.org/housing/">highly localised</a>. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7671/CBP-7671.pdf">housing need</a> is highest in London and the South East where <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/housingaffordabilityinenglandandwales/2022">affordability</a> is lowest, 380,000 new homes per year are <a href="https://www.crisis.org.uk/media/239700/crisis_housing_supply_requirements_across_great_britain_2018.pdf">needed across the UK</a>, with 100,000 for social rent. </p>
<h2>Local planning is crucial</h2>
<p>Bypassing the planning process through PDR means local authorities miss the opportunity to secure <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/over-18000-affordable-houses-lost-office-residential-conversions">affordable housing</a> through <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/pas/topics/developer-contributions">developer contributions</a> in return for planning permission. It also hampers councils’ ability to ensure that new housing responds to local circumstance.</p>
<p>Local oversight of how places are created is important. Local planning authorities are best placed to coordinate the changing built environment as <a href="https://repairresearch.net/download/2174/">town and city centres</a> evolve. They also have a key role in upholding housing quality standards, and in delivering affordable housing.</p>
<p>The planning system supports this. It also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09654313.2021.1985084">does not prevent</a> underused buildings being converted into housing. In Scotland, the devolved planning system has <a href="https://www.transformingplanning.scot/planning-reform/work-packages/permitted-development/">narrower PDR</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, local authorities retain oversight of conversions, through which they can maintain housing quality standards and ensure redevelopment improves its surroundings. For example, two major shopping centres in Glasgow, the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-65755768">St Enoch Centre</a> and <a href="https://www.glasgow.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=27934">Buchanan Galleries</a>, are currently planned for conversion into mixed-use districts, including substantial housing. The City Council is an active stakeholder in each project. </p>
<p>In its <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09654313.2021.1985084">one-size-fits-all approach</a>, however, the way PDR in England is being advocated appears to be more an experiment with planning deregulation, on ideological grounds, than a long-term response to housing need. Putting the onus on a fragmented market to solve the housing crisis is likely to produce more long-term problems than solutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Employee of the University of Glasgow, with the International Public Policy Observatory.
Previously received ESRC funding for a collaborative doctoral studentship titled 'Creating well-designed places in Scotland: What does it take?'
Member of the Labour Party.
Licentiate Member of the Royal Town Planning Institute.</span></em></p>Removing local authorities’ ability to oversee how the built environment changes will not solve the housing crisis. In fact, it might make inequality worse.Robert Richardson, Research Associate in Social Sciences, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.