tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-houston-870/articlesThe University of Houston2023-11-14T03:02:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168182023-11-14T03:02:16Z2023-11-14T03:02:16ZWhy Google and Meta owe news publishers much more than you think – and billions more than they’d like to admit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559209/original/file-20231114-17-yg49ll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C47%2C3946%2C2616&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a time of war and populism, the world needs quality information and credible news outlets. Local news is a part of this healthy ecology. </p>
<p>But news publishers have struggled to find ways to make money in recent years – especially as referral traffic and ad revenue from social media sites <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/technology/news-social-media-traffic.html?searchResultPosition=1">continue to fall</a>.</p>
<p>The monopoly power of large platforms, and the control they exert over news distribution, was one reason Australia’s competition authorities introduced the News Media Bargaining Code in 2021.</p>
<p>This code has prompted Google and Meta to strike deals with a number of Australian media organisations, addressing the longstanding conundrum of how to get platforms to pay for news. It has even become a template for other countries looking to compensate their own media businesses. </p>
<p>But what exactly is fair compensation in this case? <a href="https://policydialogue.org/publications/working-papers/paying-for-news-what-google-and-meta-owe-us-publishers-draft-working-paper/">Our new report</a> suggests the amounts of money Google and Meta should be paying news publishers are far greater than anyone imagined, and far more than the tech companies themselves claim.</p>
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<h2>When Australia’s bargaining code went global</h2>
<p>Australia broke new ground when it passed the <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/by-industry/digital-platforms-and-services/news-media-bargaining-code/news-media-bargaining-code">News Media Bargaining Code</a>, <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/p2022-343549#:%7E:text=The%20review%20considered%20it%20reasonable,been%20made%20without%2">successfully</a> pushing Google and Meta to reach voluntary commercial agreements with a number of media organisations. </p>
<p>It was a world-first piece of legislation, as La Trobe University Professor Andrea Carson <a href="https://techpolicy.press/australias-new-soft-power-bargaining-codes-start-to-spread-globally/">put it</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-news-media-bargaining-code-led-the-world-its-time-to-finish-what-we-started-188586">Australia’s News Media Bargaining Code led the world. It's time to finish what we started</a>
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<p>According to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, payments made under the code total about A$200 million each year. It’s no surprise <a href="https://www.poynter.org/business-work/2023/news-publishers-facebook-meta-google-money/">other governments</a> are looking at Australia’s law to find ways to get payments for their news too.</p>
<p>Indonesia, <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/big-online-platforms-pay-fair-price-local-news-content#:%7E:text=The%20Government%20will%20legislate%20to,Broadcasting%20Willie%20Jackson%20announced%20today.">New Zealand</a>, <a href="https://www.compcom.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/MDPMI_Administrative-timetable_final22.pdf">South Africa</a> and <a href="https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/google-should-pay-millions-for-swiss-news--says-study/48369030">Switzerland</a> have all considered similar laws. <a href="https://www.jftc.go.jp/en/pressreleases/yearly-2023/September/230921.html">Japan</a> conducted a study on the online distribution of news content, and in September warned tech platforms low payments to publishers <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/22/japan/fair-trade-commission-online-news-platforms-antimonopoly-law/">could violate antimonopoly laws</a>.</p>
<p>In Brazil, attempts to introduce <a href="https://www.poynter.org/business-work/2022/an-unholy-coalition-torpedoes-social-media-reform-legislation-in-brazil/">platform remuneration legislation were scuppered</a> in May after significant pressure from Google, but are currently <a href="https://techpolicy.press/brazil-diary-brasilia-tries-again-to-regulate-tech-get-platform-to-pay-for-news/">being revived</a>. </p>
<p>In the United States, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/1094">the Journalism Competition and Preservation Act</a>, which would allow collective bargaining by news publishers, was introduced by Democratic Minnesota Senator <a href="https://www.klobuchar.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/news-releases?ID=A3EDE58E-206C-4283-B1ED-3EA07DAC8EF8">Amy Klobuchar</a> in March. </p>
<p>Then, in June, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/google-meta-big-tech-journalism-fee-california-lawmakers-ec3a926252f59e589e5d48b067c7904e">the California State Assembly passed</a> the California Journalism Preservation Act, which would require large tech companies to share their advertising revenue with news outlets. However, <a href="https://a14.asmdc.org/press-releases/20230707-assemblymember-wicks-senator-umberg-reach-agreement-two-year-bill-ab-886">the bill</a> has been put <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-07-07/california-journalism-bill-on-hold-until-2024">on hold</a> until 2024.</p>
<p>Whether or not the laws pass, Google and Facebook are coming out against them, threatening to drop news from their platforms in several <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-is-giving-up-on-news-again/">countries</a>. Facebook dropped news in Canada in August, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/17/technology/facebook-google-australia-news.html">in Australia</a> in February 2021 (before bringing it back a short while later).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stuff-up-or-conspiracy-whistleblowers-claim-facebook-deliberately-let-important-non-news-pages-go-down-in-news-blackout-182673">Stuff-up or conspiracy? Whistleblowers claim Facebook deliberately let important non-news pages go down in news blackout</a>
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<p>Google and Meta suggest news isn’t core to their business and can be dropped or de-emphasised. At the same time, reports say they’re continuing to give small amounts of money to publishers. </p>
<p>In fact, interviews we conducted over the past couple of months with people working for different outlets suggest Google has recently been raising payments made to publishers worldwide, in what we think is an attempt to forestall legislation.</p>
<p>Globally, publishers have estimated what <a href="https://www.poynter.org/business-work/2023/news-publishers-facebook-meta-google-money/">they believe they’re owed</a> under platform remuneration acts similar to Australia’s. But these amounts are covered under non-disclosure agreements when publishers make direct deals with Google and Meta.</p>
<p>Our working paper is the first to estimate what Google and Meta owe US publishers. We have made our methodology public so it can be checked and replicated.</p>
<p>We found that in the US, Google and Meta owe news publishers between US$11 billion and US$14 billion per year. This is much more than the sums being paid out, which we know about through interviews and specific cases in which amounts have been made public. </p>
<h2>Sharing surplus value fairly</h2>
<p>At the core of our study and its conclusions is what economists call “surplus” – the additional value created when two sides enter into a mutually beneficial interaction. Importantly, the value generated from the interaction is larger than if the two sides were to operate in isolation.</p>
<p>Digital platforms benefit from having varied, credible and timely news content provided by publishers. This enhances user engagement and makes their platform more attractive to advertisers. News publishers benefit by finding an avenue through which they can distribute their content, thereby reaching more readers.</p>
<p>Our methodology found this additional surplus value generated from the platform-publisher interaction, and then used insights from the economics of bargaining, and from historical benchmarks, to calculate a “fair” payment owed to news publishers.</p>
<p>Our methodology is transparent and replicable, and offers the flexibility to change underlying assumptions based on the market and geography being analysed. With this report, we hope to broaden the discussion over the payments that large digital platforms such as Google and Facebook owe news publishers.</p>
<p>It’s more important than ever that deals between platforms and media businesses are fair and transparent, and that publishers stick together as they negotiate. More value is created when bargaining is collective.</p>
<p><em>The Conversation reached out to Google for comment but did not receive a response before the deadline.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our research is the first to estimate what the tech giants owe publishers. The actual sums paid out are usually covered by non-disclosure agreements.Anya Schiffrin, Senior Lecturer in Discipline of International and Public Affairs, Columbia UniversityHaaris Mateen, Assistant Professor, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153492023-10-10T16:03:32Z2023-10-10T16:03:32ZIsrael-Palestine conflict divides South African politicians – what their responses reveal about historical alliances<p>Hamas’ <a href="https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-10-10-23/index.html">brazen and deadly</a> attack on Israel on October 7 elicited varied responses within the South African political scene. These diverse reactions reflect the long history, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-and-israel-new-memorial-park-in-the-jewish-state-highlights-complex-history-199997">since before democracy in 1994</a>, of South African engagement with the Israel-Palestinian conflict. The conflict holds symbolic significance for many in the country. </p>
<p>As with the war in Ukraine, taking sides on the issue also allows the different parties to highlight their position on the struggle for or against global western dominance</p>
<p>The South African government, led by the African National Congress (ANC), <a href="https://www.dirco.gov.za/south-africa-calls-for-the-immediate-cessation-of-violence-restraint-and-peace-between-israel-and-palestine/">characterised</a> the recent events as a “devastating escalation”. However, it primarily attributed the situation to Israeli policies, including “the continued illegal occupation of Palestine land, continued settlement expansion, desecration of the Al Aqsa Mosque and Christian holy sites, and ongoing oppression of the Palestinian people”.</p>
<p>It called for</p>
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<p>the immediate cessation of violence, restraint, and peace between Israel and Palestine.</p>
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<p>It also urged Israel to embrace the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/two-state-solution">two-state solution</a> as a means of resolving the conflict. The two-state solution suggests the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-push-led-by-south-africa-to-revoke-israels-au-observer-status-is-misguided-168013">Why the push led by South Africa to revoke Israel’s AU observer status is misguided</a>
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<p>For its part, the ANC put out its own statement in the name of the party. This gave even bolder support for Hamas. The party’s national spokesperson, Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri, defended Hamas’ actions, invoking the enduring solidarity between the ANC and the Palestinian cause. </p>
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<p>It can no longer be disputed that South Africa’s apartheid history is occupied Palestine’s reality… the decision by Palestinians to respond to the brutality of the settler Israeli apartheid regime is unsurprising.</p>
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<p>The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a far-left pan-Africanist party which was formed after a split from the ANC, and is now the third largest party in parliament, <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-10-09-sa-calls-for-end-to-violence-and-peace-in-the-middle-east/">endorsed</a> Hamas’ use of violence. Drawing parallels with the anti-apartheid struggle, the party’s spokesperson squarely placed the blame on Israel.</p>
<p>Conversely, several movements offered their solidarity with Israel. The liberal Democratic Alliance, the main opposition party, vehemently <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2023/10/da-condemns-hamas-unprovoked-attack-urges-immediate-end-to-violence">condemned</a> the “unprovoked attack” by Hamas. It decried the </p>
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<p>senseless violence and all acts of terror against innocent civilians, women and children. </p>
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<p>Some centrist or traditionalist parties, such as the <a href="https://votepa.org.za/">Patriotic Alliance</a> and the <a href="https://www.ifp.org.za/newsroom/ifp-calls-for-immediate-cessation-of-hostilities-and-resumption-of-dialogue-in-israel-palestine-conflict/">Inkatha Freedom Party</a>, also <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/israel-hamas-war-sa-political-parties-divided-on-who-is-to-blame-for-deadly-violence-20231010">voiced their criticism</a> of the attacks. South Africa’s principal Jewish organisations also <a href="https://www.sajbd.org/index.php?p=media/south-african-jewish-community-stands-with-israel">extended their support for Israel</a>. </p>
<h2>Historical roots</h2>
<p>Unwavering support for Palestinian nationhood has remained a steadfast element of South African foreign policy since the ANC came into power in 1994. This stance has seen the country become one of the most prominent voices critical of Israel globally. </p>
<p>The ANC has thrown its <a href="https://bdsmovement.net/news/anc-international-conference-backs-boycott">support</a> behind the <a href="https://www.bdssouthafrica.com/about-bds/">Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions</a>, a movement aiming to replicate the iconic anti-apartheid boycott campaign. South African officials have consistently accused Israel of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/26/south-africa-calls-for-israels-proscription-as-apartheid-state">practising apartheid</a>. The country’s parliament recently <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/south-africas-parliament-votes-downgrade-diplomatic-ties-israel">voted</a> to formally downgrade the country’s relations with Israel from embassy to a liaison office.</p>
<p>I have been researching the history of the relationship between South Africa and Israel for nearly a decade. My <a href="https://search.proquest.com/openview/34de28522e0359b9d2ca887862f1e942/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y&casa_token=mfc7qIH5at8AAAAA:441hYgFkv6raDND0C7Zk68iygkPWyCeaZe8HaVA4coMR5JsmaBJu6ROeWkZ1C4pAcCDizWn_">research</a> has found that both the ANC and some pan-Africanist formations once held more complex perspectives on Israel and Zionism. </p>
<p>They generally expressed support for Jewish statehood from the 1940s to the 1960s. For instance, in the early 1960s, both the ANC and its primary rival in the anti-apartheid struggle, the Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC), considered Israel as a potential ally in their battle against apartheid. The PAC also received substantial financial assistance from Israel until 1970.</p>
<p>However, the ANC’s resentment towards Israel for its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/may/23/israel-south-africa-nuclear-weapons">collaboration with white minority rule</a> during the 1970s and 1980s, coupled with the perception of Palestinians suffering an apartheid-like oppression, has come to shape the party’s perspective on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.</p>
<p>Since the late 1960s, the ANC has cultivated strong ties with the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). By the 1980s, these ties had evolved into a strategic and operational alliance between the two movements. In recent years, with the weakening of the PLO, the ANC has <a href="https://www.sajr.co.za/humus-with-hamas-what-is-the-anc-thinking/">shifted</a> its support towards the PLO’s erstwhile rival, Hamas. The Muslim constituency in South Africa, <a href="https://alqalam.co.za/survey-shows-anc-losing-muslim-support/">many of whom are ANC supporters</a> and activists, further contributes to the party’s pro-Palestinian stance.</p>
<p>The DA’s support of Israel also has historical roots. Historically, liberal or so-called “moderate” parties and individuals in South Africa have been the most consistent pro-Israeli political voice in the country. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-and-israel-new-memorial-park-in-the-jewish-state-highlights-complex-history-199997">South Africa and Israel: new memorial park in the Jewish state highlights complex history</a>
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<p>Unlike the post-1970s ANC, many liberals have <a href="https://hsf.org.za/publications/focus/issue-40-fourth-quarter-2005/israel-is-a-democracy-in-which-arabs-vote">regarded</a> Israel as a democracy with a decent record in treating minorities. In the Western Cape, which is the only province governed by the DA, there has been a greater willingness to explore <a href="https://www.sajr.co.za/growing-agricultural-partnership-between-western-cape-and-israel/">collaboration</a> with Israel. </p>
<p>In addition, in recent decades, various Christian and traditionalist forces have also strongly tended towards pro-Israeli views.</p>
<p>South Africa last asked people for their religious affiliation in a household survey in 2013. The figures <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/pdf/hts/v73n2/01.pdf">at the time showed there were</a> just over 1 million Muslims and just over 101,500 people of the Jewish faith. More recent data indicates that the Jewish population in the country was <a href="https://www.jpost.com/jerusalem-report/what-is-the-future-of-the-jews-of-south-africa-677031">dropped</a> to about 50,000 people. The latest census puts the entire population at <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=16711">62 million</a>.</p>
<h2>Long legacy of international alliances</h2>
<p>The diverse perspectives of South Africa’s political parties on Israel/Palestine also mirror their distinct international allegiances. Having <a href="https://theconversation.com/history-may-explain-south-africas-refusal-to-condemn-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-178657">valued the assistance of the Soviet Union</a> and China in their struggle against apartheid, and nurturing deep-seated grievances against the western role in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4187823">supporting apartheid</a>, the ANC and more radical movements have tended to stand beside actors that challenge the US on the global stage.</p>
<p>This policy has been particularly evident in South Africa’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-pact-with-russia-and-its-actions-cast-doubt-on-its-claims-of-non-alignment-206020">sympathetic stance towards Russia</a>, even amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Conversely, the opposition DA has aligned itself with pro-western stances.</p>
<p>However, it’s uncertain whether most South Africans support the ANC’s approach to contemporary foreign relations issues. A <a href="https://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/news/brenthurst-survey-shows-vast-majority-of-south-africans-condemn-russia/">poll</a> from November 2022 found that 74.3% of citizens condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. </p>
<p>It is likely that the Palestinian cause enjoys higher levels of popular support. But, there are indications that views on Israel/Palestine are far from clear-cut. A <a href="https://humanities.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/content_migration/humanities_uct_ac_za/715/files/FINAL_%2520NarrativeReport_FINAL_March2017.pdf">study</a> from 2017, for instance, found that there was similar support in South Africa for both Israelis’ and Palestinians’ “rights to a homeland” (54% and 53%, respectively). But the study also concluded that actual knowledge of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was limited, with only 29% having “heard of” the conflict.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-search-of-advantages-israels-observer-status-in-the-african-union-165773">In search of advantages: Israel’s observer status in the African Union</a>
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<p>South Africa’s official stance on Israel-Palestine is one of the most critical in Africa, particularly compared to other states south of the Sahara. Over the past decade, Israel has seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-search-of-advantages-israels-observer-status-in-the-african-union-165773">increasing bilateral relations</a> with various African states. Several opinion <a href="https://globescan.com/2017/07/04/sharp-drop-in-world-views-of-us-uk-global-poll/">polls</a> indicate that public perception of Israel in sub-Saharan Africa is among the most favourable worldwide.</p>
<h2>Lingering divide</h2>
<p>South African politicians have framed the recent escalation between Hamas and Israel within the broader context of their perspectives on global dynamics. As with the war in Ukraine, the governing ANC and more radical elements unequivocally support the Palestinians – their longstanding allies. They view Hamas as representing the Palestinian cause, and perceive Israel as an apartheid state.</p>
<p>The liberal DA’s support for Israel is also shaped by historical and contemporary factors. It mirrors the enduring liberal backing of Israel in South Africa. It also allows the party to align itself with western governments that have recently expressed support for Israel.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215349/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Asher Lubotzky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Support for the Palestinian cause has remained a steadfast element of South African foreign policy since the ANC came into power in 1994.Asher Lubotzky, Scholar in Residence, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1887102022-09-13T12:32:40Z2022-09-13T12:32:40ZStudent enrollment falls at colleges and universities that are placed on probation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482156/original/file-20220831-23-n3am3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C0%2C6689%2C4466&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Colleges must notify students when they get in trouble with accreditors. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/partially-filled-lecture-hall-on-college-campus-royalty-free-image/1213739031?adppopup=true">SDI Productions via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em> </p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Whenever a college or university gets sanctioned by the agency that provides its accreditation, fewer students enroll in that school. That’s what I found in a study in which I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0895904820983034">examined whether the sanctions influence how students decide</a> which schools to attend.</p>
<p>In my analysis, I looked at whether schools given a warning or placed on probation had lower enrollment over the next six years. Using 13 years of data from 847 colleges and universities accredited by the <a href="https://sacscoc.org/">Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges</a>, I found between 5% and 10% lower enrollment after the schools were sanctioned. Additionally, the lower enrollment occurred in the second, third and fourth years after the sanction. </p>
<p>My study looked at two types of sanctions a school can face: <a href="https://sacscoc.org/app/uploads/2019/07/sanctionpolicy.pdf">warning or probation</a>. Warning is the less serious of the two and means that the school needs to address whatever concerns were identified, or risk probation. Probation means that the institution is at risk of losing accreditation without improvement.</p>
<p>There were key differences in the enrollment declines depending on the type of school. Four-year private nonprofit universities had an enrollment drop of around 7.7% two years after the less severe sanction of warning. Even though student enrollment fell after the lesser sanction, it took two years for the change to be seen. </p>
<p>In order to see if the enrollment declines were related to the sanctions, as opposed to something else, I examined the time that lapsed between those two events. Enrollment fell after the sanction, but not before it. I also explored other possible causes, such as graduation rates, which are seen as indicators of quality, but the relationship with sanctions held.</p>
<p>Public colleges and universities, on the other hand, only experienced declines after the more serious sanction of probation. Four-year public universities’ enrollment dropped by around 5.5% after probation. As with their private counterparts, the decline took two years. Two-year public colleges had a larger and more rapid enrollment reduction of around 9.4% after probation.</p>
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<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Agencies that accredit colleges and universities <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED569225">play a unique role</a> in U.S. higher education: They are meant to assure federal and state governments, as well as employers, students and the general public, that colleges are <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED569225.pdf">meeting certain threshold standards for things like faculty, curriculum, student services and libraries</a>.</p>
<p>My study shows that sanctions by an accrediting organization lead to lower enrollment. While it isn’t clear if students are using the sanctions in their enrollment decisions, the relationship demonstrates that colleges that do not comply with accreditation standards risk enrollment declines, which could lead to additional financial challenges.</p>
<p>This is particularly noteworthy given the <a href="https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-enrollment-decline/#:%7E:text=The%20college%20enrollment%20decline%20has,spring%202020%20and%20spring%202022.&text=Financial%20concerns%20stemming%20from%20the,students%20to%20change%20their%20plans.">rapid enrollment declines</a> experienced nationally since COVID-19 hit in spring of 2020 – <a href="https://www.studentclearinghouse.org/nscblog/undergraduate-enrollment-falls-662000-students-in-spring-2022-and-1-4-million-during-the-pandemic/">especially among community colleges</a>. This is consistent with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/cc.20480">other research</a> in which I found that nationally, community colleges are particularly prone to enrollment drops after sanctions.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>When colleges are placed on probation by their accrediting agency, they are required by federal law to <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/34/602.26">notify current and prospective students within seven business days</a>. But whether students are actually being notified – and whether they understand the notice – is a separate issue. Without knowing the degree to which students are getting notice, and understanding what it means, it’s difficult to say if students are consciously avoiding schools they know have been placed on probation, or if something else – such as bad press related to a scandal of some sort – might be driving their decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Burnett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Colleges must notify students when the school is placed on probation by its accrediting agency. Do students respond by staying away?Christopher Burnett, Postdoctoral Research Fellow with the Institute for Educational Policy Research and Evaluation, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1722792021-11-24T13:41:51Z2021-11-24T13:41:51ZStereotypes about girls dissuade many from careers in computer science<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433194/original/file-20211122-27-gyvft9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C2986%2C2001&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Only about 1 in 5 computer scientists are women. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/project-mc2-mika-abdalla-victoria-vida-and-genneya-walton-news-photo/871499520?adppopup=true">Rachel Murray/Getty Images for MGA Entertainment</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Stereotypes about what boys and girls supposedly like aren’t hard to find.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/12/toys-are-more-divided-by-gender-now-than-they-were-50-years-ago/383556/">Toy advertisements</a> send signals that science and electronic toys are intended for boys rather than girls. Computer scientists and engineers on <a href="https://seejane.org/wp-content/uploads/portray-her-full-report.pdf">television shows and movies</a> are often white men, like the guys on “The Big Bang Theory.”</p>
<p>Policymakers, teachers and <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/buy/2002-11235-005">parents</a> sometimes subscribe to these stereotypes, too. They might <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00049">spread them to children</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-073115-103235">Efforts</a> to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/business/google-women-engineer-fired-memo.html">combat these stereotypes</a> often focus on boys’ and girls’ abilities.</p>
<p>But as researchers who specialize in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_UmfrM8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">motivation</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JmWiiRAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">identity</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5jrePlgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">cognitive development</a>, we think society has largely overlooked another harmful stereotype. And that is the notion that girls are less interested than boys are in STEM.</p>
<p>In our peer-reviewed research – published in November 2021 in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/118/48/e2100030118">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a> – we found that these stereotypes about girls’ interest in science, technology, engineering and math – or lack thereof – are fairly widespread among young people today. We also found that these stereotypes actually have an effect on girls’ motivation and sense of belonging in computer science and engineering.</p>
<h2>Gains made</h2>
<p>Fields like math are <a href="https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf21321">close to having gender parity</a> – that is to say, roughly equal numbers of men and women – and <a href="https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf21321">women are actually overrepresented</a> in fields like biology among college graduates in the U.S.</p>
<p>Yet, the nation is still failing to diversify computer science and engineering. <a href="https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf21321">Only about 1 in 5</a> degrees in computer science and engineering go to women.</p>
<p>Our research shows that societal stereotypes linking these fields with boys and men act as a barrier that keeps girls and young women away. There have been many conversations about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/magazine/why-are-there-still-so-few-women-in-science.html">the harm caused</a> by <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1999/08/thin-ice-stereotype-threat-and-black-college-students/304663">stereotypes about natural talent</a>, which assert that men are better than women at STEM. But what might be even more detrimental for girls’ motivation are stereotypes that men are more interested than women in these activities and careers. These stereotypes may give girls the sense that they don’t belong.</p>
<h2>Probing children’s perceptions</h2>
<p>For our study, our first step was to document whether children and adolescents believe these societal stereotypes. We surveyed 2,277 youths in grades 1-12 in 2017 and 2019 about how interested they think girls and boys are in computer science and engineering. The majority of youths reported that boys were more likely than girls to be interested in these fields. Most youths – 63% – believed that girls are less interested than boys in engineering. Only 9% believed that girls are more interested than boys in engineering. These “interest stereotypes,” if you will, were endorsed by youths from diverse backgrounds, including Black, white, Asian and Hispanic youths.</p>
<p>They were endorsed by kids as early as age 6, in first grade. These beliefs about gendered interests were also more common than stereotypes about ability, that boys are more talented than girls at these fields.</p>
<p>We also discovered that these interest stereotypes were linked to worse outcomes for girls. The more that a typical girl in our study believed in these stereotypes favoring boys, the less motivated she was in computer science and engineering. This wasn’t the case for the typical boy. The more he believed in these stereotypes, the more motivated he was.</p>
<h2>Effects on motivation</h2>
<p>We also did two laboratory experiments using a gold-standard random-assignment design to see whether interest stereotypes have causal effects on motivation. We told children about two activities they could try. The only difference between the activities was that one activity – one that was randomly chosen – was linked to a stereotype that girls were less interested than boys in that activity. </p>
<p>The other activity was not linked to such a stereotype. If children preferred one activity over the other, we could infer that the stereotype caused a difference in their preferences. We found that interest stereotypes can actually cause girls’ lower motivation for computer science activities.</p>
<p>Only 35% of girls chose the stereotyped activity over the nonstereotyped activity. These stereotypes – which favored boys in this case – weren’t a problem for boys, who showed no preference. There was no gender gap when there was no stereotype – a gender gap only appeared when the activity was stereotyped.</p>
<h2>Dismantling stereotypes</h2>
<p>Why are interest stereotypes so powerful? Interest stereotypes may make girls assume: If boys like these fields more than girls, then I won’t like these fields either. They also send a clear signal about who belongs there. <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/buy/2015-37516-001">A sense of belonging matters a lot</a> for motivation, including young women in STEM fields like computer science and engineering. The lower the girls’ sense of belonging, the lower their interest.</p>
<p>But what if the stereotypes are true? On average, girls in the U.S. usually do report being less interested than boys in <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/buy/2015-37516-001">computer science</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1069072712475290">engineering</a>.</p>
<p>Whether or not these cultural stereotypes are currently true, we believe they can create a vicious cycle. Girls might miss out on opportunities because of an assumption that they are not interested or should not be interested in certain STEM fields. Unless adults deliberately send girls a different message about who belongs in computer science and engineering, we as a society discourage girls from trying these activities and discovering that they like them. </p>
<p>But the good news is that the lack of belonging that many girls feel in certain STEM feels is not permanent. On the contrary, we think it can be changed.</p>
<p>There are simple ways to send kids a different message about who likes to do computer science and engineering. Parents and other adults can check their assumptions about what toys to buy girls for their birthdays or holidays, or what summer camps they should attend. Girls can be shown examples of women like <a href="https://www.becauseofthemwecan.com/blogs/news/self-driving-startup-zoox-led-by-black-female-ceo-aicha-evans-is-purchased-by-amazon-for-1-2-billion">Aicha Evans</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEeTLopLkEo">Debbie Sterling</a> – women who are changing the world through technology and enjoying themselves while doing so.</p>
<p>It’s not enough for girls to realize that they can do computer science and engineering. In order to change the status quo, we think it’s necessary to spread the word that many girls actually want to do these things as well.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allison Master receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the U. S. Department of Education's Institute of Education Sciences. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not represent views of the Institute of Education Sciences, the U.S. Department of Education, or other funders. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew N. Meltzoff gratefully acknowledges receipt of funding from the National Science Foundation, the Bezos Family Foundation, and the Overdeck Family Foundation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not represent views of the funders.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sapna Cheryan receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Education's Institute of Education Sciences. The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily represent the views of these funders.</span></em></p>Could it be that girls aren’t pursuing jobs in computer science and engineering because society has told them that’s not what they want to do? Three scholars weigh in.Allison Master, Assistant Professor of Education, University of HoustonAndrew N. Meltzoff, Professor of Psychology, University of WashingtonSapna Cheryan, Professor of Psychology, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1633722021-07-01T15:14:33Z2021-07-01T15:14:33ZSouth African government’s handling of COVID-19: study shows declining trust<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409298/original/file-20210701-5437-1fvhyh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some of the first South African COVID-19 vaccine trial volunteers at the Baragwanath hospital in Soweto, in 2020.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Siphiwe Sibeko (Pool)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The public has been overwhelmed by a surge in misleading and false information during the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organisation has decried this <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/infodemic#tab=tab_1">“infodemic”</a>, which can lead to mistrust in health authorities and undermine the public health response. People often do not know which information to trust, making them vulnerable to disinformation. </p>
<p>New <a href="http://disinfoafrica.org/2021/06/14/working-paper-trust-in-institutions-covid-19-related-information-seeking-and-vaccination-messaging-in-south-africa/">research</a> suggests that South Africans are more likely to trust scientific sources, such as doctors and the World Health Organisation, than their own government. Most disapprove of the government’s handling of the pandemic. </p>
<p>These are the findings of an online survey we conducted to find out where people were getting their information about COVID-19 from and which sources they trusted most. We also conducted a small experiment to test people’s views on vaccinations. Both were done online, which means that the views represent only those South Africans with access to the web. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://disinfoafrica.org/2021/06/14/working-paper-trust-in-institutions-covid-19-related-information-seeking-and-vaccination-messaging-in-south-africa/">study</a>, conducted with support from the World Health Organisation’s (WHO’s) Africa Infodemic Response Alliance, showed that when it came to getting information about the pandemic, South Africans appeared to rely mostly on “traditional” media sources. On average, 74% said they got information about COVID-19 via media such as television, radio and newspapers. </p>
<p>The results also showed that approval of the South African government’s response to the pandemic had declined from a year ago, when we conducted <a href="http://disinfoafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/What-Motivates-The-Sharing-of-Misinformation-about-China-and-COVID-19.pdf">a similar study</a>. </p>
<p>The current survey showed a high level of disapproval: 61% of respondents said they “strongly” or “somewhat” disapproved of the way the government was handling the pandemic, while only 21.1% said they “strongly approved”. This has an impact on the effectiveness of messages promoting vaccination. If receivers of pro-vaccination messages disapprove of the sender of the message, they are less likely to trust the content of the message or share such messages with others. </p>
<p>The deteriorating level of trust in the government may be related to the stuttering vaccine rollout in the country, which was high on the news agenda at the time of the study. The rollout plan suffered several setbacks and the government was <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/concerns-grow-over-slow-pace-of-sas-vaccine-rollout-20210323">widely criticised</a> for not meeting its targets. The survey was also fielded at the time when the country’s health minister, Zweli Mkhize, was put on special leave while an investigation against allegations of corruption <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/breaking-news/2525292/zweli-mkhize-special-leave-corruption-probe-8-june/">was under way</a>. </p>
<h2>The research</h2>
<p>Our study consisted of two parts. </p>
<p>First, we conducted an online survey in which we asked 1,585 South African social media users what media they consumed, which sources of information they trusted most, and their attitudes towards COVID-19. We also asked them how they would evaluate the government’s response to the pandemic.</p>
<p>The second part of the study involved an online experiment with 1,180 social media users. We sought to determine how effective social media messaging strategies were in promoting vaccination, and what role the sender of the message played in how users responded to it.</p>
<iframe title="Trust in COVID-19 information sources in South Africa" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-4xAtL" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4xAtL/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="420"></iframe>
<p>The online survey showed that, overall, medical doctors and the World Health Organisation were the most trusted sources of information, followed by radio and television. News websites, family and the South African government were less trusted. But they were still more trusted than social media, friends, community leaders, celebrities and faith leaders. </p>
<p>Respondents who intended voting for the governing African National Congress (ANC) or opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) tended to trust the government’s communication more than supporters of other parties, such as the official opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA).</p>
<p>Overall, most said they consulted established news media sources like television (85.6%), radio (79.2%) and newspapers (online 58.3%, print 73.4%) more than they did social media. The exception was Facebook, which had a high usage (85.1%), followed by WhatsApp (67.5%). </p>
<p>Google was also a popular platform to obtain information from (85.3%), but other social media platforms like TikTok (19.6%), Twitter (29.2%), Instagram (26.6%) and YouTube (45.6%) were much less popular sources of information. </p>
<iframe title="COVID-19 News consumption habits in South Africa" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-9D7oA" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9D7oA/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="383"></iframe>
<p>In the Facebook experiment, participants saw one of four versions of a Facebook post that included a video encouraging citizens to get vaccinated. Each of the four versions was made to look like it had been posted from a different account. Two of these accounts were from political parties in South Africa (the ANC and DA), and two were institutional accounts (WHO and the National Department of Health).</p>
<p>All four posts included the same video, which was designed to look like a <a href="https://twitter.com/viralfacts">#ViralFact message</a> such as the ones distributed by the WHO’s Africa Infodemic Response Alliance. The video combined two common health communication messaging strategies, “humour” and “fear”.</p>
<p>We were interested in comparing how users would react to the same information coming from different messengers. Specifically, we looked at whether different messengers would result in people being more or less likely to get vaccinated. We also looked at whether users would be more or less likely to share the social media posts depending on where they came from. </p>
<p>We found that media users’ intentions to get vaccinated weren’t particularly swayed by which political party did the posting. In all cases, after seeing the Facebook ad, their intention to get the COVID-19 shot remained very high, confirming <a href="https://protect-za.mimecast.com/s/OapFCzm4GXCXP0NRSJ1Vej">findings by other researchers</a>.</p>
<p>But when it came to sharing social media posts, users were less likely to say they would share the Facebook post when they thought it came from an ANC account. Users who were told the post came from the WHO, the National Department of Health or the DA were significantly more likely to share the post.</p>
<p>The study supports <a href="https://cramsurvey.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/3.-Burger-R_Policy-Brief.pdf">others</a> showing a relatively high rate of vaccine acceptance among South Africans. It also suggests that the content of pro-vaccination messages is important for promoting vaccine acceptance. So is the sender.</p>
<h2>Implications</h2>
<p>The strong disapproval of the government’s handling of the pandemic, as well as the overall low levels of trust in the ANC, should be a warning to government communicators that crafting persuasive pro-vaccine messages is not enough. The trust deficit in the messenger also has a negative impact on people’s trust in the message itself, and people’s likelihood to share those messages.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
This work is based on the research supported by the National Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Madrid-Morales does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The strong disapproval of the South African government’s handling of the pandemic is a warning that crafting persuasive pro-vaccine messages is not enough.Herman Wasserman, Professor of Media Studies in the Centre for Film and Media Studies, University of Cape TownDani Madrid-Morales, Assistant Professor in Journalism at the Jack J. Valenti School of Communication, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1612962021-05-25T14:58:06Z2021-05-25T14:58:06ZSpotting hoaxes: how young people in Africa use cues to spot misinformation online<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402356/original/file-20210524-23-1gpb7dp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Different African countries must come up with home grown solutions to curb misinformation or disinformation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Inaccurate information on social media has become a <a href="https://en.unesco.org/fightfakenews">problem</a> in many countries around the world. Researchers know a fair deal about “fake news” in the global North, but much less about what is happening in the global South, particularly in Africa. </p>
<p>In African countries there is a <a href="https://www.internetworldstats.com/africa.htm">fast-growing population</a> of internet and mobile media users. They have the means to share information quickly and easily. But they can also spread disinformation and misinformation. According to the UNESCO Handbook for Journalism Education and Training, <a href="https://en.unesco.org/fightfakenews">misinformation</a> is information that is false, but believed to be true by the person sharing it. Disinformation is known to be false by the person sharing it.</p>
<p>Without more research in an African context, it is difficult for scholars and policy makers to come up with solutions to the specific problems of false information experienced on the continent.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23743670.2019.1627230?journalCode=recq21">study</a> found that social media users in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa were more likely to share false information online than their counterparts in the US. To overcome problems associated with misinformation and disinformation, it is crucial to understand why people do this. False and misleading information about the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, can be <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/fighting-misinformation-in-the-time-of-covid-19-one-click-at-a-time">life-threatening</a>. Political disinformation also endangers <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23743670.2020.1788295">democracy</a> on the continent.</p>
<p>Building on that study, <a href="https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/14801/3378">our team recently explored</a> why young African media users share information online. We found that users do spend some time thinking about whether the information is true. Their decision to share it (even if they know it’s untrue) depends on the topic and the type of message. We also found differences between countries which might be important when thinking about how to prevent the spread of false information. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-users-in-kenya-and-south-africa-trust-science-but-still-share-covid-19-hoaxes-157894">Social media users in Kenya and South Africa trust science, but still share COVID-19 hoaxes</a>
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<h2>Reasons for sharing</h2>
<p>In late 2019 and early 2020 we spoke to students in six African countries: Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In total, we talked to 94 university students in focus groups. We showed them some hoaxes which circulated widely on social media at the time. Two of these hoaxes were related to health, and one was about local politics.</p>
<p>In all six countries, the most common motivation for sharing (mis)information, including health-related items and news about terrorism, political violence and scams, was mainly attributed to a sense of civic duty or moral obligation. In these cases, students felt compelled to alert friends and family “just in case” the information turned out to be true. Not doing so, in their view, could hurt their relationships.</p>
<p>Humour and the use of parody also influenced sharing of political (mis)information. This corroborates a <a href="http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/bbc-fake-news-research-paper-nigeria-kenya.pdf">previous</a> study of African countries, but differs from studies in developed countries where social position and political orientation are more important factors. </p>
<p>Political motivations have often been <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-relation-between-media-consumption-and-misinformation-at-the-outset-of-the-sars-cov-2-pandemic-in-the-us/">highlighted</a> as a reason for sharing misinformation elsewhere. Our study revealed that these motivations play out differently across countries.</p>
<p>In Zimbabwe, for example, where press freedom is <a href="https://zimbabwe.misa.org/2021/05/06/zimbabwe-falls-on-world-media-freedom-index/">weak</a> and authoritarianism is still a reality, the sharing of political (mis)information was presented as a courageous act. In South Africa and Ghana, both of which have a <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1221101/press-freedom-index-in-africa-by-country/">relatively vibrant</a> media sector and a <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/02/global-democracy-has-a-very-bad-year">flawed democracy</a>, students appeared to be the least motivated to share political news. </p>
<p>A country’s political culture and media system seemed to be linked to the way users interacted with false political information.</p>
<h2>Cues to spot false information</h2>
<p>Not all social media users share false information. Some use cues to check whether what they are seeing online is reliable. This helps them decide whether to share content on social media. </p>
<p>In all countries in our study, except for Zambia and Zimbabwe, students used cues to determine what content to share. But sometimes, these cues led them to share inaccurate information. For example, a blue check next to a Twitter username was taken as a sign that the account had been verified and that the story was potentially true. For some, this was enough to convince them to share a post. Some others would investigate further. </p>
<p>Other cues mentioned included the number of followers, the lack of likes, comments, retweets and other metrics, the poor writing style, and the use of excessive punctuation. When a website’s layout looked “off”, when editing was poor, or when they had no recollection of the same story being published in mainstream news media, students would be reluctant to share it.</p>
<p>The recognition of these cues would seem to indicate that some university students are quite media literate. But being able to recognise a fake story did not always deter them from sharing it. </p>
<p>A story’s shareability, even if it was known to be inaccurate, was dependent on the topic. Stories about health and food as well as posts or tweets about scams, safety and terrorism were often shared to “create awareness”. Kenyan students said they would share stories about terror-related incidents. And Nigerian participants said they would share news about anti-African xenophobic attacks in South Africa out of a sense of civic duty and “just in case” it could be of benefit to the receiver.</p>
<p>Not many students said they would share a political story. Most of the participants lacked interest in politics, making them less likely to react to the stimulus. Students who described themselves as politically aware and engaged said they would share the news story because it aligned with their political views, or because it would spark some debate.</p>
<h2>What we recommend</h2>
<p>One important finding was that young media consumers in African countries demonstrated significant agency as they relied on cues to evaluate information. Their practices could be viewed as media literacy skills, for instance seeking out additional sources and verifying claims found on social media.</p>
<p>This supports the need for media literacy to find its way into school curricula in African countries. It provides critical thinking skills to spot misleading information online. </p>
<p>But media literacy is not the only solution. <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/26/1002243/misinformation-older-adults/">Older users</a> are also susceptible to receiving and sharing false information, often without knowing the dangers of doing so. Many of the students in our study noted that, while they would not share the content, older family members would. </p>
<p>Journalists, social media companies and governments should do their part to address this. For example <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/misinformation-threat-democracy-developing-world">big tech companies</a> must scale up attempts to flag false information, educate people and use algorithms to control misinformation. These efforts need to be targeted at different demographic groups.</p>
<p>Different African countries will still need to come up with their own solutions because of contextual differences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chikezie E. Uzuegbunam receives funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nothing to disclose </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Herman Wasserman receives funding from the National Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Madrid-Morales, Dr. Emeka Umejei, Etse Sikanku, Khulekani Ndlovu, and Melissa Tully do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Users do spend some time thinking about whether information is true; the decision to share it (even if it’s fake news) depends on the topic and the type of message.Chikezie E. Uzuegbunam, Postdoctoral research fellow, University of Cape TownDani Madrid-Morales, Assistant Professor in Journalism at the Jack J. Valenti School of Communication, University of HoustonDr. Emeka Umejei, Lecturer, Communication Studies, University of GhanaDr. Gregory Gondwe, Assistant Professor, University of Colorado BoulderEtse Sikanku, Senior Lecturer, Ghana Institute of JournalismHerman Wasserman, Professor of Media Studies in the Centre for Film and Media Studies, University of Cape TownKhulekani Ndlovu, PhD in Media Studies, University of Cape TownMelissa Tully, Associate Professor Director of Undergraduate Studies School of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of IowaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1578942021-04-06T14:35:19Z2021-04-06T14:35:19ZSocial media users in Kenya and South Africa trust science, but still share COVID-19 hoaxes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393141/original/file-20210401-15-h0pyp5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenya and South Africa have a high exposure to disinformation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread <a href="https://factcheck.afp.com/busting-coronavirus-myths">disinformation</a> circulating on social media globally. This includes false information about the virus, its origins and possible cures for the disease it causes. Much of the inaccurate information was related to China, the country where the first cases of an atypical pneumonia were reported in December 2019. This was determined in January 2020 to be caused by <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/interactive-timeline?gclid=CjwKCAjwu5CDBhB9EiwA0w6sLefKI1LGMZ2by2RTlJXHKT-PFdq9Q7YU4DPL5uqMKhNkp50WOF0BoBoC1qAQAvD_BwE#event-7">a novel coronavirus</a>.</p>
<p>Although the precise origin of the virus is still unknown, a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00865-8">major investigation</a> by the World Health Organisation found that markets that sold animals were a probable source. Alternative theories, such as that the virus escaped from a laboratory, were almost entirely ruled out. Yet, this is one of the misinformation theories that have been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/02/12/china-covid-misinformation-li-meng-yan/">circulating widely</a>. The Chinese state itself <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-beijing-only-on-ap-epidemics-media-122b73e134b780919cc1808f3f6f16e8">also engaged in disinformation</a> in an attempt to overturn the narrative.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23743670.2019.1627230">Previous research</a> has shown that media users in Kenya and South Africa believe they are often exposed to disinformation. Research has also shown that Kenyan and South African social media users are very likely to share such information, even if they suspect or know it to be false. This occurs against the background of a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/recq21/40/4?nav=tocList">steep increase in disinformation in Africa</a> in recent years, often linked to a lack of trust in the news media. </p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic provides us with a useful lens through which to study attitudes and practices of disinformation particularly as they relate to China, given the prominence the country and its leaders had in media coverage of the crisis.</p>
<h2>The research</h2>
<p>In April 2020, we surveyed 970 adult social media users in Kenya and 991 in South Africa to understand how they engaged with disinformation about China and COVID-19. We focused on Kenya and South Africa as two countries with vibrant media environments. Both countries have active online communities. In South Africa, 43% of citizens <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369118X.2020.1851387">say they regularly get their news from social media</a>, followed by Nigeria (36%) and Kenya (25%). </p>
<p>The goal of our study was to investigate the link between social media users’ attitudes towards China and their motivations to share disinformation related to COVID-19 and China. To do so, we showed participants sample hoaxes and debunked rumours related to COVID-19 and China. We then asked them whether they believed the posts were true or not, and why they would or would not share them.</p>
<p>We retrieved the four debunked social media posts from the collection of fact-checks available on the website of <a href="https://factcheck.afp.com/">AFP Fact Check</a>.</p>
<p>The findings of this project were included in <a href="http://disinfoafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/What-Motivates-The-Sharing-of-Misinformation-about-China-and-COVID-19.pdf">a paper</a> that was presented at the <a href="https://www.asc.upenn.edu/news-events/events/narratives-covid-19-china-and-world-technology-society-and-nations">Narratives of COVID-19 in China and the World: Technology, Society, and Nations symposium</a> hosted virtually by the University of Pennsylvania in March 2021.</p>
<h2>The findings</h2>
<p>We found that, at the peak of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, both Kenyans and South Africans held broadly negative views of China. They believed that China was governed less competently and honestly than the United States. Respondents appeared to acknowledge the positive impact of Chinese economic engagement with Africa, but were still relatively critical of Beijing’s policies on other domains such as its governance, respect for civic rights, protection of the environment and media freedom. </p>
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<p>Nevertheless, respondents offered resistance against certain xenophobic or racist messaging and attribution of blame to China. For example, although 39% of South Africans and 49% of Kenyans strongly supported closing their borders to foreign travellers, the majority agreed that attributing blame to China by referring to the “Chinese coronavirus” or the “Wuhan disease” was racist.</p>
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<p>These findings are important indicators of the prevailing views towards foreigners in two African countries that have often seen xenophobic conflicts. </p>
<p>The majority of South Africans and Kenyans did not believe the hoaxes or rumours, and trusted scientists. But, a significant number showed an interest in sharing the hoax or rumour posts – even if they did not necessarily believe them. For instance, 40% of Kenyans and 29% of South Africans believed the (fake) post about an alleged fight between Chinese and Kenyans on the streets of Wuhan was true.</p>
<p>The most common motivation to share these social media posts was a perceived moral or civic duty to share information (whether true or not) and raise awareness about an issue. There was also a desire to spark debate and solicit other people’s views. Many respondents also said they would share misinformation for fun or entertainment.</p>
<p>There were also some differences between the types of posts. Respondents said they were more likely to share posts about racial injustices to make a statement about their political views, for instance to highlight injustice. </p>
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<p>Overall, we did not find a significant link between negative views of China and social media users’ motivations to share disinformation about COVID-19 and China. Those who believed the posts to be true were most likely to share it out of a sense of moral duty. However, those with stronger negative views of China were not more inclined to do so than those with more positive views. </p>
<h2>Value of the study</h2>
<p>This study contributes to our growing understanding of why African media users share disinformation. The findings confirm <a href="https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/14801/3378">earlier research</a> in six African countries. That research showed that factors such as a sense of civic duty and an inclination towards humorous social media content drove the spread of disinformation.</p>
<p>Although the study encouragingly suggests that African social media users resisted disinformation they considered racist, the findings, more disconcertingly, confirm that people are willing to share disinformation even when they suspect or know the information to be false. </p>
<p>More research on these sharing motivations remains important. If organisations and fact checkers know what factors motivate people to consume and share disinformation, they can develop interventions that are better suited to particular behaviour patterns and contexts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Herman Wasserman receives funding from the National Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIHSS), project ref no BC01/2019/10.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Madrid-Morales does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers found that both Kenyans and South Africans have a broadly negative view of China, possibly amplified by the pandemic.Herman Wasserman, Professor of Media Studies in the Centre for Film and Media Studies, University of Cape TownDani Madrid-Morales, Assistant Professor in Journalism at the Jack J. Valenti School of Communication, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323742020-02-25T20:33:54Z2020-02-25T20:33:54ZÉtats-Unis : pourquoi les jeunes Noirs se suicident-ils autant ?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317073/original/file-20200225-24668-10bflbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C11%2C3776%2C2138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Les jeunes Noirs sont peut-être moins susceptibles que les autres jeunes de partager leurs sentiments de solitude ou de dépression, ce qui pourrait expliquer le fait que le taux de suicide est plus élevé au sein de cette catégorie de la population.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/depressed-teenager-sitting-gateway-missing-child-1294737016">Motortion Films/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Aux États-Unis, le <a href="https://www.aappublications.org/news/2019/10/14/suicide101419">taux de suicide est en progression chez les jeunes Noirs</a>. En 2016, puis en 2018, les statistiques nationales ont révélé que, parmi les enfants âgés de 5 à 11 ans, la <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.0465">population noire comptait le plus fort taux</a> de décès par suicide. Entre 2008 et 2012, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.0465">59 jeunes Noirs se sont donné la mort</a>, contre 54 entre 2003 et 2007.</p>
<p>En outre, l’enquête biennale sur les comportements à risque chez les jeunes, diligentée en 2015 par le Centre de prévention et de contrôle des maladies, a montré que, comparés aux jeunes Blancs non hispaniques, les lycéens noirs de sexe masculin étaient plus susceptibles d’avoir déjà fait des <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/pdf/2015/ss6506_updated.pdf">tentatives de suicide</a> ayant nécessité des soins médicaux.</p>
<p>Professeure de psychologie et directrice du <a href="https://www.uh.edu/class/psychology/clinical-psych/research/crrl/">laboratoire de recherche sur les rapports entre culture, risque et résilience</a> à l’Université de Houston, au Texas, j’ai récemment codirigé une étude suggérant qu’il <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/NMD.0000000000001026">pourrait être nécessaire d’établir de nouveaux profils à risque</a> pour améliorer la prévention du suicide, en particulier chez les Afro-Américains.</p>
<h2>Sensibilisation globale aux risques de suicide</h2>
<p>Le suicide est devenu <a href="https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml">l’une des principales causes de décès</a> aux États-Unis, dans toutes les tranches d’âge mais plus particulièrement chez les adolescents et les jeunes adultes. C’est la seconde cause de décès chez les 10-34 ans. Les parents, les enseignants et les professionnels de santé doivent être à la fois capables d’en parler et de comprendre les risques auxquels font face les enfants vulnérables, quelle que soit leur origine ethnique. Mais ceux qui travaillent avec de jeunes Noirs doivent aussi prendre en considération certaines idées reçues sur le suicide dans la communauté afro-américaine.</p>
<p>L’un de ces mythes est né il y a près de trente ans, lorsque les universitaires Kevin Early et Ronald Akers ont conclu, à la suite de leurs entretiens avec des pasteurs afro-américains, que le <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.1993.9967947">suicide était « un problème de Blancs »</a> et que les Noirs avaient l’habitude de faire face aux épreuves de la vie sans succomber à la tentation du suicide. C’est un mythe.</p>
<p>Au vu des propos que nous sommes nombreux à entendre au quotidien, et qui sont parfois véhiculés par les médias, ce point de vue sur le suicide dans la communauté noire a relativement peu évolué.</p>
<p>Plus important encore, les jeunes Noirs ayant un profil à risque sont encore plus difficiles à identifier que les autres. Une étude qualifie ainsi les jeunes issus des minorités ethniques en âge d’entrer à l’université, y compris les Afro-Américains, de <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/1099-9809.6.4.374">« suicidaires cachés »</a> car moins susceptibles de révéler leurs pensées morbides. Le passage à l’acte étant hélas un phénomène bien réel qui se produit parfois à de <a href="https://www.aappublications.org/news/2019/10/14/suicide101419">manière extrêmement précoce</a>, des efforts d’envergure sont nécessaires pour s’attaquer à ce problème de santé publique.</p>
<p>Les recherches montrent que la stigmatisation des personnes souffrant de troubles psychologiques et la crainte d’être encore davantage rejetés ou ignorés <a href="https://www.nami.org/find-support/diverse-communities/african-americans">pourraient pousser les jeunes Noirs à garder pour eux leurs idées suicidaires</a>. En outre, les professionnels de la santé publique et les spécialistes de la santé mentale n’ont pas toujours conscience du fait que les facteurs de risque suicidaire ne sont pas forcément les mêmes selon les groupes ethniques.</p>
<p>Pour simplifier, une approche unique et universelle ne convient pas pour identifier les risques de suicide. Or, peu ou pas d’actions ont été entreprises pour s’attaquer à cette crise de plus en plus grave. En tant qu’Afro-Américaine et psychologue, je me sens terriblement frustrée quand des enfants perdent la vie alors qu’ils auraient pu être sauvés.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Les jeunes Afro-Américains doivent faire face à des défis qui sont parfois épargnés aux jeunes Blancs non hispaniques.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/anxious-teenage-student-sitting-examination-school-769528084">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Les Afro-Américains ont des besoins spécifiques en matière de santé mentale</h2>
<p>La plupart des services spécialisés dans la santé mentale ne sont pas conçus pour prendre en compte les nuances culturelles et sociales. Mon équipe de recherche a démontré que les défis auxquels font face les enfants noirs, qui doivent s’adapter à un <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/1099-9809.14.1.75">double contexte culturel</a>, pourraient augmenter leur risque de développer des tendances suicidaires.</p>
<p>Les recherches menées auprès des adultes ont montré que les femmes et les hommes noirs qui géraient leur stress de manière <a href="https://uh-ir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle/10657/2357/Walker_Religious_Coping_Style_postprint.pdf">eurocentrée ou individualiste</a> plutôt que de s’en remettre à la Providence étaient davantage susceptibles d’envisager le suicide. Ce n’était pas le cas de ceux qui utilisaient des ressources spirituelles, plus ancrées culturellement, pour supporter leurs problèmes.</p>
<p>Lorsque des différences culturelles existent, les thérapeutes doivent faire preuve d’imagination pour évaluer correctement le risque de suicide de leurs patients. Par exemple, le racisme auquel sont confrontés les Afro-Américains est un facteur de stress supplémentaire pour nombre d’entre eux. De fait, leur stress et leurs problèmes psychologiques nécessitent des approches et des solutions différentes de celles qui fonctionnent pour les Blancs.</p>
<p>Dans une autre étude publiée dans la revue <em>Comprehensive Psychiatry</em>, nous avons observé <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comppsych.2019.03.001">différents schémas de risque pour les adultes noirs</a> comparés aux adultes blancs admis en psychiatrie. Nous nous sommes penchés sur les problèmes de sommeil, fréquents chez les Afro-Américains, et sur leur rapport avec le suicide : en effet, les troubles du sommeil sont un facteur de risque sérieux mais sous-estimé dans les crises suicidaires. Il s’avère qu’un sommeil de mauvaise qualité peut aggraver une crise émotionnelle. Nos recherches montrent que la difficulté à rester éveillé pour des activités comme la conduite ou les interactions sociales, indicatrice d’un manque de sommeil, sont associées à un risque quatre fois plus élevé de crise suicidaire, comparé aux crises psychologiques non suicidaires chez les adultes noirs admis en psychiatrie.</p>
<p>Nous avons également découvert que l’expérience du racisme est <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/sltb.12251">associée à des pensées suicidaires</a> chez les jeunes Noirs comme chez les adultes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">La présence d’un adulte qui l’aime et prend soin de lui est essentielle dans la vie d’un enfant. Il est également important de ne pas minimiser les sentiments de l’enfant en lui disant d’arrêter d’être triste ou de passer à autre chose.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/caring-worried-african-american-mother-holding-1417298627">fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Comment trouver de l’aide</h2>
<p>L’attention et la prévenance des adultes sont le premier rempart d’un enfant. S’il révèle qu’il pense à la mort, il est important de l’encourager à en dire plus sur ses pensées et de lui demander s’il sait qu’il pourrait mourir. Si un enfant a pour projet de se suicider, il faut demander <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/therapists/child-or-adolescent">l’aide d’un professionnel</a>.</p>
<p>Contacter le service de soutien psychologique en appelant une ligne d’écoute – en France, Phare enfants-parents au 01 43 46 00 62 – peut être une option pour les adolescents qui ont besoin d’aide pendant une crise.</p>
<p>Quand il s’agit de trouver un professionnel de la santé mentale, les parents ont besoin d’une vaste liste d’options, y compris des cliniques psychiatriques affiliées à des universités qui proposent des services fondés sur des données factuelles, selon un barème précis et des centres de soins agréés pour les personnes qui ne disposent pas d’une mutuelle santé. Quel que soit l’établissement choisi, un thérapeute qualifié peut très bien être d’une origine ethnique différente de celle de son patient.</p>
<p>Les parents ou tuteurs doivent être prêts à s’asseoir avec l’enfant, écouter et tenter de comprendre pleinement ce qui est le plus bouleversant quand un enfant fait face à une situation difficile et à un flot d’émotions.</p>
<p>Certains croient que ces statistiques alarmantes vont s’inverser d’elles-mêmes. Peut-être, mais en attendant, sauver ne serait-ce qu’une seule vie mérite de faire des efforts.</p>
<p>Avoir des pensées suicidaires ne signifie pas qu’un enfant ou un adolescent doit être hospitalisé. Cela veut dire qu’il ressent une profonde détresse émotionnelle et veut que cette souffrance s’arrête. Les adultes peuvent rechercher la cause du problème et le régler, ou aider l’enfant à y faire face. Des ressources en ligne comme Stopbullying.gov aux États-Unis (<a href="https://www.nonauharcelement.education.gouv.fr/">Non au harcèlement</a> ou <a href="https://www.phare.org/">Phare Enfants – Parents</a> en France) présentent notamment des vidéos utiles aux parents, aux enseignants et aux jeunes. Suggérer à un enfant qu’il faut arrêter d’avoir des pensées négatives ne fait qu’aggraver les choses. Un enfant qui se trouve déjà dans un état de vulnérabilité ne peut pas régler ses problèmes sans un réel soutien de la part des adultes qui veillent sur lui.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Si vous avez des idées suicidaires, appelez Suicide Écoute au 01 45 39 40 00, ou consultez leur site, <a href="https://www.suicide-ecoute.fr/">Suicide Écoute</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Traduit de l’anglais par Iris Le Guinio pour <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr">Fast for Word</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rheeda Walker ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Les jeunes Afro-Américains courent un risque accru de mourir par suicide. Les explications tiennent largement au racisme, au harcèlement et à l’aliénation dont ils font l’objet.Rheeda Walker, Professor of Psychology, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293612020-01-26T09:53:04Z2020-01-26T09:53:04ZIn 100 000 years Lake Victoria has dried up three times. It could happen again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310208/original/file-20200115-151862-1yh9nzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lake Victoria</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aleksandr Stezhkin/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lake Victoria, in East Africa, is the world’s largest tropical freshwater lake. At <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229541663_Management_issues_in_the_Lake_Victoria_watershed">68,800km²</a>, it’s also the second largest freshwater lake in the world after Lake Superior in North America. On a clear day you cannot see the other side of Lake Victoria, yet this vast body of water <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/331/6022/1299">has dried up</a> several times in the past – and it could happen again. </p>
<p>Over the past 100,000 years, the lake has completely dried up <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X19305758?via%3Dihub">at least</a> three times. Each time it was probably replaced by a vast grassland.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X19305758?via%3Dihub">found that</a> the lake could dry up again in as little as 500 years because of changes in temperature, rainfall and orbital forcing – the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis. Our predictions are based on historical and geologic data from the last 100,000 years. </p>
<p>Inadequate and conflicting data on long term weather trends make it hard to be conclusive. And we can’t be sure of how climate will change in the future due to human actions without more data. Over the past few decades, the frequency of drought in East Africa <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/51411/severe-drought-causes-famine-in-east-africa">has increased</a> but <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119068020.ch16">climate models</a> project an overall increase in rainfall over the next century for this area. </p>
<p>Previous studies on Lake Victoria’s future water levels have been done, but didn’t have evidence for past changes in rainfall or include orbital forcing.</p>
<p>Based on historical and geologic observations, our findings show that Lake Victoria can dry up very quickly with small decreases in annual rainfall. Knowing whether rainfall is going to increase or decrease over the next 100 years becomes very important. </p>
<p>Today about <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Victoria/victoria2.php">30 million</a> people in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania rely on the lake for fishing, irrigation, drinking water and, in Uganda, electricity. Lake Victoria is also the source of one of the River Nile’s major tributaries, the White Nile. About <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-future-there-will-be-more-rain-but-less-water-in-the-nile-basin-129360">250 million people</a> rely on the Nile in Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-future-there-will-be-more-rain-but-less-water-in-the-nile-basin-129360">In the future there will be more rain, but less water, in the Nile Basin</a>
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</em>
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<p><a href="https://www.tralac.org/news/article/13721-east-africa-the-fastest-growing-region-in-africa-with-people-leading-longer-and-healthier-lives.html">Huge population growth</a> is expected in the region. All these people will increasingly rely on the lake because the region <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">is warming</a> and may receive <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">less annual rainfall</a> due to global climate change.</p>
<h2>Factors that affect the lake level</h2>
<p>For our research, we needed to examine all the factors that could affect the size and level of Lake Victoria, including rainfall, temperature, evaporation and rivers flowing into and out of the lake. </p>
<p>The main inflow is the Kagera River, which drains the highlands of Rwanda and Burundi. The White Nile flows out of the lake. It also loses a lot of water to evaporation which, at the equator, is very high due to intense sunlight – <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626669809492173">almost equal</a> to the amount of rainfall falling on the lake.</p>
<p>From <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/331/6022/1299">previous research</a> we knew that the lake dried up twice, at 17,000 and 15,000 years ago.</p>
<p>To reconstruct lake levels as far back as 18,000 years, scientists examined diatoms (a type of algae) collected from the bottom of the lake to see how fresh or brackish the water used to be. Brackish diatoms indicate lower lake levels because the water becomes saltier as the water evaporates. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X19305758?via%3Dihub">new research</a> examined the chemistry of fossil soils along the edge of the lake to understand past changes in the amount of rainfall. Because the orbit of the Earth around the sun has varied, we also looked at how sunlight reaching the Earth has changed, and will change. </p>
<p>Using all this information we were able to create a model of the lake’s past, present, and future. </p>
<h2>Drying up</h2>
<p>Our findings <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X19305758?via%3Dihub">show that</a> the amount of annual rainfall in the Lake Victoria Basin must continue to be at least 75% of current rainfall amounts (105 cm each year) or the lake will disappear.</p>
<p>Once the lake has dried up rainfall needs to be at least 131 cm every year to refill the lake. Depending on other changes in the weather, this could take between hundreds and thousands of years. If there was less than 94% of today’s rainfall, it would take at least 10,000 years to refill.</p>
<p>Climate models <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">all predict</a> an increase in temperature over the next 100 years, which will affect evaporation for this region. </p>
<p>Previous drops in lake levels over the last 60 years were caused by a natural decrease in annual rainfall and by Uganda releasing more than the agreed upon water to generate electricity. We found that if previously observed natural rates of lake level fall are projected into the future, the White Nile could stop flowing out of Lake Victoria in as little as 10 years at the fastest rates. But we need more research to know just how likely this is. </p>
<h2>Delicate balance</h2>
<p>Our research shows just how delicate the balance is between rainfall and evaporation for Lake Victoria. The lake could dry up in as little as 500 years. But the consequences of falling levels for people living around it would begin much sooner.</p>
<p>For Uganda, this would mean the loss of its <a href="https://energypedia.info/wiki/Uganda_Energy_Situation#Energy_demand">primary source</a> of electricity. The White Nile also <a href="https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/5509/2018/">sustains</a> the Nile during the dry seasons.</p>
<p>In as little as 100 years, the major port cities around Lake Victoria could lose access because the lake has shrunk. Currently these cities depend on the income generated from the fishing industry and fresh water.</p>
<p>Kenya could lose all access to the lake in 400 years. This sets up a potentially dangerous dynamic between Kenya and Uganda, which already fight over fishing rights – very lucrative due to the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/migingo-island-africas-smallest-war-190217150742518.html">1 million pounds</a> of fish harvested from the lake every year.</p>
<h2>Increased monitoring</h2>
<p>There is an urgent need for a greater understanding of how rainfall will change in this region. Lake Victoria’s continued existence is directly related to rain and evaporation. </p>
<p>We need to increase monitoring of temperatures, precipitation and other weather data, such as humidity, in the region. We must also measure the water flowing into and out of Lake Victoria via all the rivers. </p>
<p>A greater understanding of the lake’s history would also improve our ability to understand any patterns in the lake drying up. Deeper drilling for sediment samples would provide information to help us predict and prepare for the potential future of Lake Victoria.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily J. Beverly receives funding from the National Science Foundation, National Geographic, and the Leakey Foundation. </span></em></p>Lake Victoria’s past is key to understanding its future.Emily J. Beverly, Assistant Professor, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270662020-01-17T13:54:47Z2020-01-17T13:54:47ZBlack kids and suicide: Why are rates so high, and so ignored?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309852/original/file-20200114-103963-k03jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C3725%2C2144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Black youth may be less likely to share their thoughts of loneliness or depression than other youth, which could be a reason for higher rates of death by suicide among black youth.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/depressed-teenager-sitting-gateway-missing-child-1294737016">Motortion Films/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.aappublications.org/news/2019/10/14/suicide101419">Teen suicide rates among black youth</a> are increasing. In 2016 and again in 2018, national data revealed that among children age 5-11, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.0465">black children had the highest rate</a> of death by suicide. For the years 2008 to 2012, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.0465">59 black youth died by suicide</a>, up from 54 in the years 2003-2007. </p>
<p>Also, the 2015 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s biennial Youth Risk Behavior Survey reported that, compared to non-Hispanic white boys, black high-school age boys are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/pdf/2015/ss6506_updated.pdf">more likely to have made serious suicide attempts</a> that require medical attention. </p>
<p>I am a professor of psychology and also director of the <a href="https://www.uh.edu/class/psychology/clinical-psych/research/crrl/">culture, risk and resilience research laboratory</a> at the University of Houston, and I recently co-authored a study that suggests that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/NMD.0000000000001026">new risk profiles may be needed</a>
for better suicide prediction in African Americans in particular. </p>
<h2>Comprehensive suicide awareness</h2>
<p>Suicide has become a <a href="https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml">leading cause of death</a> in the U.S. among all age groups, but particularly in youth and young adults. It is the second leading cause of death among 10- to 34-year-olds. Parents, teachers and professionals must be able to both talk about it and understand the risks for vulnerable children of any race. But those of us who work with black youth may also need to address some myths about suicide in the African American community. </p>
<p>For example, one such myth has its start almost three decades ago, Kevin Early and Ronald Akers’ interviews with African American pastors concluded that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.1993.9967947">suicide is a “white thing”</a> and that black people are accustomed to struggling through life challenges without succumbing to suicide. those authors concluded that black people see suicide as a “white thing” but it is a myth that black people do not die by suicide. </p>
<p>Based on anecdotal conversations that many others and I have heard in day-to-day conversations and that sometimes emerge in popular media, this opinion about suicide in the black community has shifted relatively little. </p>
<p>More importantly, black youth at risk may even be more difficult to identify than non-black youth. One study referred to college age racial/ethnic minority people, including African Americans, as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/1099-9809.6.4.374">“hidden ideators”</a> who are less likely than other youth to disclose thoughts of suicide. Because suicide is occurring and at <a href="https://www.aappublications.org/news/2019/10/14/suicide101419">shockingly young ages,</a> comprehensive efforts are needed to address this public health problem. </p>
<p>Studies suggest that stigma about mental illness and the feeling that one will be outcast further or ignored <a href="https://www.nami.org/find-support/diverse-communities/african-americans">may keep black youth from sharing their thoughts</a>. Also, public health and mental health experts may be unaware that suicide risk factors could show up differently depending on ethnic group. </p>
<p>Simply put, a one-size-fits-all approach does not work for identifying suicide risk. And little or no action has been taken to address the increasing crisis. As an African American psychologist, I find this frustrating when children’s lives are lost – lives that could be saved. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310331/original/file-20200115-134777-cyzctp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">African American youth face challenges that non-Hispanic white youth may not.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/anxious-teenage-student-sitting-examination-school-769528084">Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Unique needs in African American mental health</h2>
<p>Most mental health services are not designed with cultural and social nuances in mind. My research team has found consistently that the challenges that black kids face in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/1099-9809.14.1.75">navigating dual cultural contexts</a> may increase their risk of suicidal thoughts. </p>
<p>In research on adults, we found that black men and women who <a href="https://uh-ir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle/10657/2357/Walker_Religious_Coping_Style_postprint.pdf?sequence=1">used more Eurocentric or individualist</a> approaches that was more self-focused rather than managing stress via the belief in a Higher Power were more likely to consider suicide. This was not true for those who used more culturally meaningful, spiritual coping.</p>
<p>When there are cultural differences, therapists must be willing to “think outside of the box” to fully evaluate risk for suicide. As an example, the racism that black Americans encounter increases stress for many. Thus, their stressors and mental health issues will need different solutions and approaches than treatments that work for white people. </p>
<p>In another study published in Comprehensive Psychiatry, we observed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comppsych.2019.03.001">different patterns of risk for black adults </a>compared to white adults who were admitted for psychiatric care. We examined sleep-related problems, which are elevated among black Americans, and suicide because sleep issues are a serious but understudied risk factor for suicide crisis. It turns out that inadequate sleep can escalate an emotional crisis. Our research found that problems staying awake for activities such as driving or engaging in social activities, which reveal inadequate sleep, were associated with a four-fold greater risk for suicide crisis compared to non-suicide crisis in black adults who were admitted for psychiatric treatment. </p>
<p>We have also found that experiencing racism is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/sltb.12251">associated with thoughts about suicide</a> for black youth and adults.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310333/original/file-20200115-134814-jyx7ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A caring, loving adult in a child’s life is essential. It is also important not to downplay a child’s feelings, telling her to cheer up or get over it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/caring-worried-african-american-mother-holding-1417298627">fizkes/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to find help</h2>
<p>Caring adults are a child’s first line of defense. If a child discloses that he is thinking about dying, it is important to ask him to share more about his ideas and if he knows he might die. If a child has a suicide plan, it is time to get <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/therapists/child-or-adolescent">professional help</a>.
The Crisis Text Line at 741741 could be an option for teens who need help to cool down in a crisis.</p>
<p>When it comes to finding a mental health professional, parents need an expansive list of referral options, including university-affiliated mental health clinics that offer evidence-based services on a sliding scale and federally qualified health centers for the uninsured. Regardless of the setting, a well-trained therapist may be of a different race. </p>
<p>Parents and caregivers must be willing to sit, listen and try to fully understand what is most upsetting for a child who is experiencing a difficult situation and a lot of emotions.</p>
<p>For those who believe that the alarming statistics will eventually reverse course without any action, this may be true. In the meantime, saving one life is worth the effort.</p>
<p>Thoughts of suicide do not mean that a child or teen needs to be hospitalized. It means they are in emotional pain and want the pain to end. Adults can investigate the problem and remove it or help the child deal with it. Online resources such as Stopbullying.gov include interactive videos that are useful to parents, educators and youth. Suggesting to a child that she “get over it” is less than helpful. A child who is already in a vulnerable state cannot problem-solve without meaningful support from the caring adults in charge. </p>
<p><em>If you are having thoughts of suicide, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255 (TALK). The website is <a href="https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org">National Suicide Prevention Lifeline</a>.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rheeda Walker has received funding from The National Institutes of Health, the University of Georgia Research Foundation, the Southern Illinois University Foundation and the South Carolina Research Foundation.</span></em></p>African American youth are at increased risk for death by suicide. An expert explains why it’s important to better understand the effects of racism, bullying and alienation on black youth.Rheeda Walker, Professor of Psychology, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1294212020-01-17T13:54:15Z2020-01-17T13:54:15ZI asked people why they don’t vote, and this is what they told me<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310050/original/file-20200114-93792-1ro0ap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People have different reasons for not showing up on Election Day. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-smiling-young-female-attorney-older-345426887">Burlingham/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At least 40% to 90% of American voters stay home during elections, evidence that low voter turnout for both <a href="http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data">national</a> and <a href="https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/11/in-the-us-almost-no-one-votes-in-local-elections/505766/">local</a> elections is a serious problem throughout the United States. </p>
<p>With the 2020 presidential election approaching, <a href="https://www.thedailytimes.com/news/league-of-women-voters-to-host-brainstorming-event-on-how/article_8fb65ee3-7051-5efa-a958-5661ce4b07b5.html">directives for people to “get out and vote”</a> will be firing up again.</p>
<p>Some people might be indifferent or simply not care, but many who forgo voting have legitimate reasons. </p>
<p>Over the past decade, through my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RRyCesgAAAAJ&hl=en">extensive</a> <a href="https://andrewpegoda.com/cv/">research</a> on civil rights and oppression, through my observations of social media comments and through my conversations with hundreds of college students, I have concluded that such reasons are both important and, generally, unnoticed.</p>
<h2>1. Voter suppression</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/23/659784277/republican-voter-suppression-efforts-are-targeting-minorities-journalist-says">Republican-led efforts</a> to diminish participation in voting and voter registration have greatly contributed to the number of nonvoters. </p>
<p>Since 2010, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx">25 states</a> have adopted measures specifically aimed at making voting more difficult. Such measures include additional <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx">voter identification</a> requirements. </p>
<p>Sometimes lawmakers said these were necessary to curb illegal voting, which research shows is an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/18/us/voter-fraud.html">all-but-nonexistent</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/04/22/714950127/after-democrats-surged-in-2018-republican-run-states-eye-new-curbs-on-voting">problem</a>.</p>
<p>Some counties and states have also created confusion and uncertainty about <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/01/06/texas-and-national-democrats-suing-state-over-voter-registration/">how to initially register</a> or <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/voter-id-election-confusion">re-register</a> after a voter has moved. </p>
<p>In other cases, people might not know where to vote, due to the distribution of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/us/politics/misinformation-election-day.html">deliberately false information</a>.</p>
<p>Since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/shelby-county-v-holder/">Shelby County v. Holder</a> in 2013 that key aspects of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 were unconstitutional, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-locations/southern-us-states-have-closed-1200-polling-places-in-recent-years-rights-group-idUSKCN1VV09J">states have closed</a> over 1,000 polling locations, half of these in <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Texas-has-closed-more-polling-places-than-any-14429443.php#">Texas</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308847/original/file-20200107-123373-1v075w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2016, about four in 10 people reportedly did not vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brownstown-twp-miusa-sept-29-2016-490929688">Barbara Kalbfleisch/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Personal choice</h2>
<p>Some people decide to forgo voting.</p>
<p>I hear again and again that sometimes people make such choices because they were intimidated by friends, by family members or by people at <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/reports-of-voter-intimidation-at-polling-places-in-texas">polling places</a>. </p>
<p>When facing the complexities of races with dozens of candidates and complicated issues, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/05/in-their-own-words-why-some-people-find-voting-difficult/">others say they don’t feel</a> they know enough to make informed decisions.</p>
<p>People have also told me they worry about feeling personally responsible if they vote for a candidate or position and there are unforeseen consequences, such as cuts to important aid programs. Members of any group, but especially those of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/01/why-are-the-poor-and-minorities-less-likely-to-vote/282896/">underrepresented</a> <a href="https://medium.com/s/story/an-open-letter-to-everyone-who-wont-stop-telling-me-to-vote-21b75e28546b">groups</a>, may long to vote for desirable candidates but not feel that current candidates offer the possibility that anything will really change.</p>
<p>Individuals have shared with me that they have not voted because they do not trust a nation that they feel has lied and perpetuated systemic abuse against minorities, aggravated further by <a href="https://www.apa.org/monitor/2018/03/jn">widespread</a> <a href="https://harvardpress.typepad.com/hup_publicity/2018/07/why-gerrymandering-matters-allan-lichtman.html">gerrymandering</a> and for presidential elections, by an <a href="https://theconversation.com/whose-votes-count-the-least-in-the-electoral-college-74280">Electoral College</a> system that doesn’t weigh each vote the same. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/08/europe/french-voters-spoiled-ballots-abstained/index.html">France</a> and <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/fyi/story/nota-none-of-the-above-assembly-elections-2016-west-bengal-assam-kerala-311814-2016-03-04">India</a>, for example, people who dislike all of the candidates can formally “vote” without endorsing any candidate by selecting “none of the above.” Not having this option in the U.S. might affect turnout, too.</p>
<h2>3. Obstacles to access</h2>
<p>For others, voting may simply be too difficult.</p>
<p>I often hear of people who – even with early voting or absentee options – cannot vote because they <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2015/08/05/news/economy/poor-people-voting-rights/index.html">lack transportation</a>. They are homeless. They lack child care. They are <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/02/01/how-voters-with-disabilities-are-blocked-from-the-ballot-box">disabled</a>. They <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/11/12/a-ton-of-people-didnt-vote-because-they-couldnt-get-time-off-from-work/">work, go to school and live in different cities</a>.</p>
<p>This is even more applicable for the <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2019/demo/P70BR-163.pdf">7 to 8 million</a> in the U.S. who hold multiple jobs. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/can-i-leave-work-early-to-vote-2016-11">Laws guarantee</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/1/18016220/2018-midterm-elections-time-off-work-vote">time off</a> <a href="https://aflcio.org/2016/11/5/know-your-rights-state-laws-employee-time-vote">for voting</a> but <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/1/18016220/2018-midterm-elections-time-off-work-vote">aren’t enforceable and aren’t always workable</a>. </p>
<p>Such people are effectively disenfranchised.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310051/original/file-20200114-93792-1gj7n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In many of the biggest U.S. cities, voter turnout in mayoral elections is less than 20%.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/polling-place-vote-here-sign-on-1239383353">Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Lack of rights</h2>
<p>Only nonincarcerated, mentally competent, registered citizens of age can vote. </p>
<p>Based on 2015 data, the right to vote was not extended to an over <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015.pdf">13 million</a> people with green cards, work visas or refugee status. Given the total population of people 18 and older exceeded <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk">248 million</a> in 2015, one out of every 20 adults living, working and spending money in the U.S. was not eligible to vote. </p>
<p>Using <a href="https://doi.org/10.29158/JAAPL.003780-18">vague and inconsistent</a> language, states have also worked to <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/21/thousands-lose-right-to-vote-under-incompetence-laws">deny</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/09/04/492430780/disabled-and-fighting-for-the-right-to-vote">disabled</a> or <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/disabled-people-denied-voting-rights-group-says">mentally</a> <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/10/keeping-the-mentally-incompetent-from-voting/263748/">ill</a> people a political voice. This affects <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/21/thousands-lose-right-to-vote-under-incompetence-laws">potentially over a million people nationwide</a>.</p>
<p>As discussed in the books <a href="http://newjimcrow.com">“The New Jim Crow”</a> and in <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/race-incarceration-and-american-values">“Race, Incarceration and American Values,”</a> an additional 6 million Americans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/21/us/felony-voting-rights-law.html">cannot vote</a> because of felony convictions, an issue that disproportionately affects <a href="https://news.uga.edu/total-us-population-with-felony-convictions/">black people</a>. In some states, this disenfranchisement remains <a href="https://apnews.com/07409d1e264549f093a554b38ccd82f3">in effect for life</a>. </p>
<h2>The future</h2>
<p>Given the legitimacy of reasons why they don’t participate, nonvoters certainly shouldn’t be scolded with, “If you <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/martin-bashir/memo-americans-if-you-dont-vote-you-can/amp">don’t</a> <a href="https://www.quora.com/Why-do-people-say-if-you-dont-vote-you-cant-complain">vote</a>, you <a href="https://link.medium.com/jtQbGeVE32">can’t</a> <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/dont-vote-dont-complain_b_12254884">complain</a>.” Or with even harsher words, as one friend on Facebook put it: “If you don’t vote, everything wrong in the world is your fault.”</p>
<p>People long to be heard and deserve fair representation. Instead of bashing nonvoters, I recommend taking some deep breaths and initiating friendly conversations. Listen and learn. At a time when public trust in government is at <a href="https://www.people-press.org/2019/04/11/public-trust-in-government-1958-2019/">historic lows</a>, such conversations might even encourage someone to demand a voice.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Joseph Pegoda does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the 2016 election, more than a third of Americans didn’t vote. What might be keeping them from going to the polls?Andrew Joseph Pegoda, Lecturer in Women's, Gender and Sexuality Studies; Religious Studies; and First Year Writing, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288382020-01-03T13:49:14Z2020-01-03T13:49:14ZBuyers should beware of organic labels on nonfood products<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308336/original/file-20200101-11951-6ipelk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C44%2C5910%2C2389&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Be skeptical of organic claims on cleaning products and other nonfood goods.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/eco-blank-design-packaging-natural-bottles-1432036151">Pinkasevich/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Product labels offer valuable information to consumers, but <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-has-ceded-control-of-its-site-the-result-thousands-of-banned-unsafe-or-mislabeled-products-11566564990">manufacturers can misuse them</a> to increase profits. This is particularly true for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/organic/labeling">organic label</a>. </p>
<p>Two recent decisions by the <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/">U.S. Federal Trade Commission</a>, which protects consumers from unfair and deceptive business practices, signal that the agency is paying more attention to misuse of the word “organic” on nonfood items, such as clothing and personal care products. In my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nvnsqIoAAAAJ&hl=en">research on food and environmental policy</a>, I have found that federal authority in this area is less clear than it is for food products. In my view, the FTC’s interest is long overdue.</p>
<h2>The rules are mostly for foods</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308335/original/file-20200101-11909-111h1xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The USDA organic seal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Organic4colorsealJPG.jpg">USDA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unlike other marketing claims such as “healthy” or “natural,” “organic” is defined and regulated by the federal government. Organic food products undergo a rigorous certification process to comply with the <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/about-ams/programs-offices/national-organic-program">National Organic Program</a>, or NOP, which is administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. </p>
<p>Only agricultural products that contain at least 95% certified organic ingredients meet these standards and can display the USDA organic seal or use the phrase “made with organic products.” USDA organic certification is considered the gold standard among food labels, and has significant cachet in the marketplace. In 2018 the U.S. organic food market was <a href="https://ota.com/news/press-releases/20699">valued at US$49.9 billion</a> and accounted for <a href="https://ota.com/news/press-releases/20699">almost 6% of nationwide food sales</a>.</p>
<p>All sorts of nonfood products also make organic claims, including textiles, household cleaners, personal care products and services such as house cleaning and dry cleaning. Nonfood products are a much smaller market, but their sales jumped by 10.6% to <a href="https://ota.com/news/press-releases/20699">$4.6 billion</a> in 2018. While they may appear to promote healthy lifestyles, the word “organic” is less meaningful when used on nonfood products and more subject to abuse.</p>
<h2>Organic nonfood products with agricultural ingredients</h2>
<p>While the NOP regulates organic claims for agricultural food products, its authority over nonfood products is limited. Textiles, for example, are made from agricultural products like cotton, wool or flax. Textiles made from agricultural ingredients that are “produced in full compliance with the NOP regulations” <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_events/975753/nop-pm-11-14-labelingoftextiles.pdf">may be labeled as NOP certified organic</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308334/original/file-20200101-11939-at3xxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">USDA regulates organic claims for goods made with plant materials such as cotton.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/ajWAz">Scoobyfoo/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Personal care products can also be made from agricultural ingredients, such as flower or fruit extracts and oils. USDA allows personal care products that contain agricultural ingredients and meet the USDA/NOP organic standards to be <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_events/975753/nop_organiccosmeticsfactsheet.pdf">certified organic</a>. As a result, you can find mosquito repellent, shampoo and face cream bearing the USDA certified organic seal.</p>
<h2>Consumer confusion</h2>
<p>Beyond these limited categories, products with non-agricultural ingredients <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_events/975753/consumer_perception_of_recycled_content_and_organic_2016-08-10_-_published_on_ftc-gov.pdf">do not generally fall within the NOP program</a>, and the USDA does not regulate them. For example, the agency has no authority over cosmetics that do not contain agricultural ingredients or meet NOP organic standards. Cosmetics are regulated by the Food and Drug Administration, which has expressed little interest in policing organic claims. </p>
<p>The Federal Trade Commission can investigate and sue companies making false, misleading or deceptive organic claims, but until recently it has been <a href="https://www.ota.com/news/press-releases/19336">reluctant to do so</a>, partly to avoid duplicating the USDA’s efforts. This began to change in 2015 when the two agencies conducted a study on public understanding of organic claims for nonfood products. They found that consumers were confused about whether these claims meant the same thing as claims on food products, and did not understand that USDA had <a href="https://www.ota.com/news/press-releases/19336">limited authority</a> in this area. </p>
<p>When the agencies co-hosted a <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/events-calendar/2016/10/consumer-perceptions-organic-claims-ftc-usda-roundtable">roundtable in 2016</a> on this issue and solicited public input, they received <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/policy/public-comments/2016/08/initiative-669">hundreds of comments</a> from individuals, trade associations and other interested groups. One individual wrote: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I am deeply concerned about the flagrant misuse of the term "organic” in the personal care products industry. The term “organic” should mean the same thing whether applied to personal care products or to food. I am also very troubled that companies that deliberately mislabel their products <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/policy/public-comments/2016/09/26/comment-14">seem to go unpunished</a>.“</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The nonprofit <a href="https://www.cornucopia.org/">Cornucopia Institute</a>, which acts as an organic industry watchdog, submitted results of a survey it conducted about the word organic. One question asked consumers whether a shampoo labeled organic was certified by the USDA. Approximately 27% of respondents said yes, 55% said no and <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_comments/2016/10/00028-129259.pdf">the rest were unsure</a>. </p>
<p>The Institute urged the FTC to "harmonize label regulation
with the [NOP organic] standards in a simple way: Prevent the term ‘organic’ from being used on products and services that generally fall <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_comments/2016/10/00028-129260.pdf">outside the scope of the USDA’s National Organic Program</a>.” </p>
<p>In my view, this is unlikely to happen. But one useful step would be for the FTC to include information about organic claims in its <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/press-releases/ftc-issues-revised-green-guides/greenguides.pdf">Green Guide</a>, which is designed to help marketers avoid making misleading or deceptive environmental claims. </p>
<h2>Recent violations</h2>
<p>In 2017 the FTC stepped in for the first time to investigate deceptive organic claims on baby mattresses. According to a consent order filed with the agency, Moonlight Slumber, LLC made <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/cases/1623128moonlightslumberorder.pdf">unsubstantiated representations</a> on its mattresses, including that the mattresses were “organic.” In fact, the company’s products were made of <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2017/09/illinois-firm-barred-making-misleading-baby-mattress-claims">a majority of non-organic materials</a>, mainly polyurethane, a plastic produced almost entirely from <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/cases/1623128moonlightslumbercomplaint.pdf">petroleum-based raw materials</a>. </p>
<p>In October 2019 the FTC fined another company, Truly Organic, $1.76 million for falsely advertising its body washes, lotions, baby, hair care, bath and cleaning products as “<a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/truly-organic-not-really-says-ftc">certified organic,” “USDA certified organic,” and “Truly Organic</a>.” Despite having some ingredients that could be organically sourced, Truly Organic products either contained ingredients that were not approved by NOP or contained ingredients that were not organically sourced. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The FTC charged Truly Organic with altering documents to make it appear that the company’s products were USDA-certified organic.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nonetheless, the market for natural and organic personal care products continues to grow, as evidenced by the popularity of celebrity brands like Gwyneth Paltrow’s <a href="https://goop.com/">Goop</a> and Jessica Alba’s <a href="https://www.honest.com/">Honest Company</a>. Demand for this category of goods is projected to reach <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/11/16/p-gs-gillette-going-natural-with-pure-shave-gel.html">$17.6 billion by 2021</a>. </p>
<p>Consumers want clean, chemical-free and organic products, but they don’t always get them. Many personal care companies have been cited for <a href="https://www.ewg.org/news-and-analysis/2018/01/natural-or-organic-cosmetics-don-t-trust-marketing-claims">misleading claims</a>. As examples, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/09/07/645665387/gwyneth-paltrows-goop-agrees-to-pay-145-000-to-settle-false-advertising-lawsuit">Goop</a> and the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-honest-alba-settlement-idUSKBN18X2Y4">Honest Company</a> have settled lawsuits that accused them respectively of making misleading health claims and false advertising. </p>
<p>Instead of relying on consumers to bring these claims to court, I believe regulators should be more engaged, particularly the FTC. Without effective oversight, unscrupulous retailers have an incentive to continue cashing in on the organic seal.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Morath is a board member of the Citizens Environmental Coalition, a Houston non-profit whose mission is to foster dialogue, education, and collaboration on environmental issues in the Houston/Gulf Coast region. </span></em></p>What does it mean to call a nonfood product like lipstick organic? Federal regulators allow such claims, but have set few standards defining them.Sarah J. Morath, Clinical Associate Professor of Law and Director of Lawyering Skills and Strategies, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1218562019-09-04T17:26:51Z2019-09-04T17:26:51ZHere’s what happens when political bubbles collide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288968/original/file-20190821-170914-25tktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are you trapped in an echo chamber?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/people-hold-blank-speech-bubble-copy-642857470">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social media has transformed how people talk to each other. But social media platforms are not shaping up to be the utopian spaces for human connection <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/22/15855202/facebook-ceo-mark-zuckerberg-new-mission-statement-groups">their founders hoped</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, the internet has introduced phenomena that can influence national elections and maybe even <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/11/04/do-social-media-threaten-democracy">threaten democracy</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.voxpol.eu/follow-the-echo-chamber-measuring-political-attitude-change-and-media-effects-on-twitter/">Echo chambers</a> or “bubbles” – in which people interact mainly with others who share their political views – arise from the way communities <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/07/24/486941582/the-reason-your-feed-became-an-echo-chamber-and-what-to-do-about-it">organize themselves online</a>. </p>
<p>When the organization of a social network affects political discussion on a large scale, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/11/08/500686320/did-social-media-ruin-election-2016">the consequences can be enormous</a>. </p>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1507-6">study</a> released on September 4, we show that what happens at the connection points, where bubbles collide, can significantly sway political decisions toward one party or another. We call this phenomenon “information gerrymandering.”</p>
<h2>When bubbles collide</h2>
<p>It’s problematic when people derive all their information from inside their bubble. Even if it’s factual, the information people get from their bubble may be selected to confirm their <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/07/14/confirmed-echo-chambers-exist-on-social-media-but-what-can-we-do-about-them/">prior assumptions</a>. In contemporary U.S. politics, this is a likely contributor to <a href="https://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Eseanjwestwood/papers/ARPS.pdf">increasing political polarization</a> in the electorate.</p>
<p>But that’s not the whole story. Most people have a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180416-the-myth-of-the-online-echo-chamber">foot outside</a> of their political bubbles. They read news from a range of sources and talk to some friends with different opinions and experiences than their own. </p>
<p>The balance between the influence coming from inside and outside a bubble matters a lot for shaping a person’s views. This balance is different for different people: One person who leans Democrat may hear political arguments overwhelmingly from other Democrats, while another may hear equally from Democrats and Republicans. </p>
<p>From the perspective of the parties who are trying to win the public debate, what’s important is how their influence is spread out across the social network.</p>
<p>What we show in our study, mathematically and empirically, is that a party’s influence on a social network <a href="http://www.redistrictinggame.org/learnaboutmission2.php">can be broken up</a>, in a way analogous to electoral gerrymandering of congressional districts. </p>
<p>In our study, information gerrymandering was intentional: We structured our social networks to produce bias. In the real world, things are more complicated, of course. Social network structures grow out of individual behavior, and that behavior is influenced by the social media platforms themselves.</p>
<p>Information gerrymandering gives one party an advantage in persuading voters. The party that has an advantage, we show, is the party that does not split up its influence and leave its members open to persuasion from the other side.</p>
<p>This isn’t just a thought experiment – it’s something we have measured and tested in our research.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290178/original/file-20190829-106504-w8lqjx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People tend to talk to others who share their political views. But most people have some friends who disagree with them politically, and their echo chambers, or bubbles, collide in lots of places. Information gerrymandering occurs when there is asymmetry in how bubbles collide. In the example shown at the bottom, the blue party has split its influence, so that some members are open to persuasion from the red party.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Experimenting with bubbles</h2>
<p><a href="http://davidrand-cooperation.com/lab">Our colleagues at MIT</a> asked over 2,500 people, recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk, to play a simple voting game in groups of 24.</p>
<p>The players were assigned to one of two parties. The game was structured to reward party loyalty, but also to reward compromise: If your party won with 60% of the votes or more, each party member received US$2. If your party compromised to help the other party reach 60% of the votes, each member received 50 cents. If no party won, the game was deadlocked and no one was paid. </p>
<p>We structured the game this way to mimic the real world tensions between voters’ intrinsic party preferences and the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-things-done-washington.aspx">desire to compromise</a> on important issues.</p>
<p>In our game, each player updated their voting intentions over time, in response to information about other people’s voting intentions, which they received through their miniature social network. The players saw, in real time, how many of their connections intended to vote for their party. We placed players in different positions on the network, and we arranged their social networks to produce different types of colliding bubbles. </p>
<p>The experimental games and networks were superficially fair. Parties had the same number of members, and each person had the same amount of influence on other people. Still, we were able to build networks that gave one party a huge advantage, so that they won close to 60% of the vote, on average. </p>
<p>To understand the effect of the social network on voters’ decisions, we counted up who is connected to whom, accounting for their party preferences. Using this measure, we were able to accurately predict both the direction of the bias arising from information gerrymandering and the proportion of the vote received by each party in our simple game.</p>
<h2>Bubbles in real life</h2>
<p>We also measured information gerrymandering in real-world social networks.</p>
<p>We looked at published data on people’s <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3019414">media consumption</a>, comprising 27,852 news items shared by 938 Twitter users in the weeks leading up to the 2016 presidential election, as well as <a href="https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM11/paper/viewFile/2847/3275">over 250,000 political tweets</a> from 18,470 individuals in the weeks leading up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections.</p>
<p>We also looked at the <a href="http://www.ramb.ethz.ch/CDstore/www2005-ws/workshop/wf10/AdamicGlanceBlogWWW.pdf">political blogosphere</a>, examining how 1,490 political blogs linked to one another in the two months preceding the 2004 U.S. presidential election.</p>
<p>We found that these social networks have bubble structures similar to those constructed for our experiments. </p>
<h2>How networks produce bias</h2>
<p>The effects that we saw in our experiments are similar to what happens when politicians gerrymander congressional districts. </p>
<p>A party can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/">draw congressional districts</a> that are superficially fair – each district is contained within a single border, and contains the same number of voters – but that actually lead to systematic bias, allowing one party to win more seats than the proportion of votes they receive. </p>
<p>Electoral gerrymandering is subtle. You often know it when you see it on a map, but a rule to determine when districts are gerrymandered is complicated to define, which was a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/27/supreme-court-gerrymandering-dissent-elena-kagan">sticking point</a> in the recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/jun/27/supreme-court-gerrymandering-ruling-verdict-constutition-districting">U.S. Supreme Court case</a> on the issue. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290226/original/file-20190829-106498-13kmsfw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electoral gerrymandering often leads to congressional districts with strange and elaborate shapes. In the case Illinois District 4, shown here as drawn in 2004, the shape resembles a pair of earmuffs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Illinois_District_4_2004.png">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a similar way, information gerrymandering leads to social networks that are superficially fair. Each party can have the same number of voters with the same amount of influence, but the network structure nonetheless gives an advantage to one party. </p>
<p>Counting up who is connected to whom allowed us to develop a measure we call the “influence gap.” This mathematical description of information gerrymandering predicted the voting outcomes in our experiments. We believe this measure is useful for understanding how real-world social networks are organized, and how their structure will bias decision making.</p>
<p>Debate about how social media platforms are organized, as well as the consequences for individual behavior and for democracy, will continue for years to come. But we propose that thinking in terms of network-level concepts like bubbles and the connections between bubbles can provide a better grasp on these problems. </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander J Stewart receives funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua B. Plotkin receives funding from Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Army Research Office, and the David & Lucile Packard Foundation.</span></em></p>When the organization of a social network impacts political discussion on a large scale, the consequences can be enormous.Alexander J. Stewart, Assistant Professor of Mathematical Biology, University of HoustonJoshua B. Plotkin, Professor of Biology, University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1069462018-11-21T13:40:16Z2018-11-21T13:40:16ZStudy sheds light on scourge of “fake” news in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246627/original/file-20181121-161615-2me48u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigerians have the lowest trust in the country's media, thanks to widespread misinformation. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Ahmed Jallanzo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Concerns about “fake news” have dominated discussions about the relationship between the media and politics in the developed world in recent years. The <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1461670X.2018.1492881">extraordinary amount</a> of attention paid in scholarship and in public debates to questions around truth, veracity and deception can be connected to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-real-consequences-of-fake-news-81179">role of “fake news”</a> in the 2016 US presidential election, and US President Donald Trump’s use of the term to dismiss his critics.</p>
<p>The term “fake news” itself is <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1630/163002.htm">controversial</a> because <a href="https://en.unesco.org/news/new-handbook-journalism-education-and-training-published-fight-fake-news-and-disinformation">it’s poorly defined</a>. </p>
<p>The panic created by the spread of misinformation in general has led to introspection by journalists and a reassertion of professional values and standards.</p>
<p>The rise of <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/unisa-staffer-who-manufactures-fake-news-could-face-criminal-hate-speech-charges-20181116">false information</a> has complex cultural and social reasons. Until now, though, the phenomenon has been studied mostly as it happens in the US and Europe, with relatively <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46138284">little attention</a> to the situation in African countries. </p>
<p>This is despite the fact that disinformation on the continent has often taken the form of <a href="https://www.news24.com/Analysis/siqalo-showed-how-social-media-is-reshaping-protest-narratives-20180511">extreme speech </a> inciting violence or has spread racist, misogynous, xenophobic messages, often on mobile phone platforms such as <a href="https://www.enca.com/analysis/sad-truth-about-catzavelos-video">WhatsApp</a>.</p>
<p>To fill the gap in information about “fake news” in sub-Saharan Africa, we conducted an online survey in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa earlier this year. <a href="http://danimadrid.net/research/2018_icafrica_fakenews.pdf">Our study</a> had three goals: to measure the prevalence of disinformation, to learn who people believe is responsible for stopping fake news, and to understand the relationship between disinformation and media trust.</p>
<p>Our survey, in which 755 people took part, reused questions from <a href="http://www.journalism.org/2016/12/15/many-americans-believe-fake-news-is-sowing-confusion/">another study</a> on the topic conducted in 2016 by the US-based Pew Research Centre. In this way we are able to compare our results with those in the US.</p>
<p>Our findings suggest that African audiences have low levels of trust in the media, experience a high degree of exposure to misinformation, and contribute – often knowingly – to its spread.</p>
<h2>Findings</h2>
<p>There are five takeaways from our study.</p>
<p>First, media consumers in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa perceive that they are exposed to “fake news” about politics on a fairly regular basis. Almost half of Kenyan respondents said they often encounter news stories about politics that they think are completely made up. More alarmingly, only a small fraction (ranging from 1 to 3%) say they have never come across fabricated news. In the US, that figure is much higher (12%).</p>
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<p>Second, surveyed Africans said they shared “fake news” with a much higher frequency than Americans do: 38% Kenyans, 28% Nigerians and 35% South Africans acknowledged having shared stories which turned out to be made up. In the US only 16% did so. When asked whether they had shared stories that they knew were made up, one-in-five South Africans and one-in-four Kenyans and Nigerians said “yes”.</p>
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<p>Third, the public is seen as bearing the largest responsibility in stopping the spread of misinformation. More than two-thirds of respondents in all three countries said members of the public have a lot or a great deal of responsibility. Next came social media companies and, in last place, the government.</p>
<p>Fourth, we found that Nigeria has the lowest level of overall trust in the media of the three countries. On a scale from 0 to 100, average values were consistently below 50. </p>
<p>Declining levels of media trust are not exclusive to sub-Saharan Africa, but are <a href="https://cms.edelman.com/sites/default/files/2018-01/2018%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Global%20Report.pdf">a trend across the globe</a>. </p>
<p>By type of news organisation, Nigerian and Kenyan audiences said they trust international media more than any other. In South Africa, local media are the most trusted. A consistent pattern across countries is the lowest degree of trust in social media.</p>
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<p>Fifth, we found that those respondents who believe they are exposed to “fake news” more regularly, have lower levels of trust in the media. Because misinformation and disinformation appear to be contributing to the erosion of media trust, it is important that strategies to address the fake news phenomenon look beyond media literacy. </p>
<h2>Rebuilding trust in media</h2>
<p>Educating audiences about the dangers of fake news is not enough. Media literacy should form part of a larger, multi-pronged approach to restore trust in the media. The findings suggest that media organisations would have to work hard at rebuilding relationships with audiences.</p>
<p>Our data comes with some limitations. While we tried to sample different segments of society, because data was collected online, it is more likely to represent the point of view of urban middle classes, than those living in rural areas or with lower income levels – or both. </p>
<p>The results of this study, which is the first to explore misinformation and disinformation in multiple African countries, provide some initial evidence that can be used in designing strategies to limit the spread of fake news, and to mitigate the declining trust in the media.</p>
<p>In sub-Saharan Africa, mainstream media have long struggled to gain their independence and freedom. State control, either through ownership or suppression, over media remains strong. The high levels of perceived exposure to misinformation and disinformation, if left unaddressed, could further undermine the precarious foothold of independent media on the continent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106946/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Funding for this survey came from the National Research Foundation (Grant number 93493) and the University of Cape Town Research Committee.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Madrid-Morales does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Disinformation in Africa often takes the form of extreme speech inciting violence and spreading racist, misogynous, xenophobic messages.Herman Wasserman, Professor of Media Studies and Director of the Centre for Film and Media Studies, University of Cape TownDani Madrid-Morales, Assistant Professor in Journalism at the Jack J. Valenti School of Communication, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1005882018-07-30T05:16:39Z2018-07-30T05:16:39ZThe Laos disaster reminds us that local people are too often victims of dam development<p>On July 22, the Xepian-Xe Nam Noy hydropower dam under construction in Laos’ Attapeu Province collapsed. Flash flooding inundated eight villages, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/07/26/world/asia/ap-as-laos-dam-collapse.html">killing at least 29 people and leaving 131 officially reported missing</a>. The final number of casualties could be <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44971342">much higher</a>. </p>
<p>Disaster response activities are ongoing. The deputy secretary of the province claimed that more than <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/thick-mud-hampers-laos-flood-rescue-missing-180728110054375.html">1,100 people were still unaccounted for</a>, as of July 27. Laotian authorities are investigating whether the collapse was caused by <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/laos-dam-collapse-dam-fractured-following-monsoon-rainfall-three-times-greater-than">heavy rainfall</a>, inadequate construction standards, or a combination of the two.</p>
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<p>The dam is part of a larger joint venture between Laotian, Thai and South Korean companies, which are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/07/26/world/asia/ap-as-laos-dam-collapse.html">reportedly helping</a> with the rescue and restoration effort. The companies are also sending experts to assess the damage and investigate the cause of the disaster.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinese-hydropower-electrifies-southeast-asia-but-at-a-cost-20275">Chinese hydropower electrifies southeast Asia, but at a cost
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<p>This is not the first time that a hydropower project in Southeast Asia has been in the spotlight. It again raises <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/laos-dam-collapse-worst-dam-disasters-over-the-last-60-years">questions about the benefits of such projects</a> for local communities, considering the risks to which local people are exposed. </p>
<p>Not only do large developments interfere with ecosystems, but they often affect local communities even in the absence of catastrophe. This <a href="http://news.trust.org/item/20180725064852-5azu4/">was indeed the case</a> for the Xepian-Xe Nam Noy project, which had already cost many villagers their land and livelihoods before disaster struck.</p>
<p>As much as we tend to focus on the “natural” triggers for disaster – in this case heavy rain – the reality is more nuanced. These incidents are often also the result of flawed development, and as such they are <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/ksenia-chmutina-jason-von-meding-jc-gaillard-lee-bosher/why-natural-disasters-arent-all-that-natural">social and political disasters too</a>. </p>
<p>So, was this disaster just a terrible accident? Or is it emblematic of a development agenda that is out of sync with the needs of a healthy environment and local community? </p>
<h2>The impacts of hydropower</h2>
<p>Hydropower projects in Southeast Asia, and particularly in the Mekong catchment, have long exposed vulnerable communities to risk while developers reap the rewards. Millions of people depend on the Mekong river for water, fish, transport and irrigation.</p>
<p>Dam developers promise that their projects will deliver a wide array of benefits: renewable energy, bountiful reservoir fishing, profitable reforestation, harmonised water allocation, and better flood control. But these controversial projects often dramatically <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/Mekong-River-nations-face-the-hidden-costs-of-China-s-dams">change local livelihoods for the worse</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229539/original/file-20180727-106505-u4vhun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229539/original/file-20180727-106505-u4vhun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229539/original/file-20180727-106505-u4vhun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229539/original/file-20180727-106505-u4vhun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229539/original/file-20180727-106505-u4vhun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229539/original/file-20180727-106505-u4vhun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229539/original/file-20180727-106505-u4vhun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A map of dams on the lower Mekong.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ICEM</span></span>
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<p>We have seen this before, both in Laos and in its neighbouring countries. The Nam Song Diversion Dam, completed in 1996, <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/nam_song_report_final.pdf">affected more than 1,000 Laotian families</a> – first by removing their access to productive agricultural land and causing a severe decline in fish stocks. Since then, deliberate water surges – for electricity generation – have been blamed for three deaths and widespread loss of boats and fishing equipment.</p>
<p>The Nam Theun 2 Hydropower Project boasted rigorous social and environmental safeguards – but <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/nt2_factsheet_dec10.pdf">these soon became broken promises</a>. This project also followed a disturbing trend relating to hydropower development in Southeast Asia: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-vietnam-poverty-and-poor-development-not-just-floods-kill-the-most-marginalised-82785">dispossession of already marginalised ethnic minorities</a>. </p>
<p>In neighbouring Cambodia, the Kamchay Dam <a href="https://www.cambodiadaily.com/news/hydro-dam-does-little-for-locals-study-finds-92523/">displaced thousands of people</a>, jeopardised their livelihoods, and caused irreparable damage to the environment. The Pak Chom Dam in Thailand similarly put <a href="https://www.scribd.com/presentation/22653754/Potential-Impacts-of-Pak-Chom-Dam-on-Local-Food-Security-Loei-Province-Northeastern-Thailand">local livelihoods at risk</a>.</p>
<p>So despite providing clean renewable energy, many hydropower projects in Southeast Asia have also deepened inequality and marginalisation.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-vietnam-poverty-and-poor-development-not-just-floods-kill-the-most-marginalised-82785">In Vietnam poverty and poor development, not just floods, kill the most marginalised</a>
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<h2>People vs profit</h2>
<p>This latest disaster should therefore be seen in the context of broader criticism concerning damming the Mekong and its tributaries. </p>
<p>Some analysts have argued that local communities in the Mekong delta are being caught in the middle of a <a href="http://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/all-abs/176-a5-2-12/file">cross-border water grab</a>. Private and state-backed actors from China, Thailand, and Laos <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinese-hydropower-electrifies-southeast-asia-but-at-a-cost-20275">profit handsomely</a> from hydropower projects, but critics argue that all too often the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212608216300444">negative impacts of dams are ignored</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/27/chinas-mekong-plans-threaten-disaster-for-countries-downstream/">Local protests against development projects</a> are often suppressed, and governments regularly align with private interests to maximise profit and protect developers from any repercussions. In recent years, affected communities have <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/opinion/24666-asia-begins-to-address-the-impacts-of-development-displacement.html">made some gains</a>, but displacement and disempowerment are still rife. </p>
<p>The exploitation of the Mekong river is only likely to increase. China has a <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/Mekong-River-nations-face-the-hidden-costs-of-China-s-dams">clear energy agenda</a> and Laos aspires to be the “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44936378">battery of Southeast Asia</a>”. But while exporting much of its hydroelectric power to Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, the Laotian government <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/laos">imports the same power back at increased cost</a> from Thailand. Local people feel that something is amiss. </p>
<p>Communities from the Mekong villages of Mo Phu and Pak Paew villages <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/mekong_mainstream_damsupdate_2017_english.pdf">have been told</a> to prepare for resettlement due to the planned construction of the Phou Ngoy Dam. They face uncertainty as to the living conditions at their new location.</p>
<h2>Development isn’t always positive</h2>
<p>The World Bank ranked Laos as the <a href="https://theaseanpost.com/article/laos-hydropower-ambitions">13th fastest growing economy</a> of 2016, and the Asian Development Bank predicts that its economy will <a href="https://www.adb.org/countries/lao-pdr/economy">grow at 7% a year for the remainder of this decade</a>.</p>
<p>Hydropower is a major contributor to this economic growth. But hydropower projects promote displacement, put livelihoods and food security at risk, and destroy biodiversity and ecosystems. Without considering both international and local social and environmental costs, hydropower development exacerbates everyday struggles for many people in Southeast Asia. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1021715165111185409"}"></div></p>
<p>Many of the destructive projects on the Mekong are <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/laos">supported by</a> the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. These powerful international stakeholders should not be above criticism. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-should-we-blame-for-the-brazil-mining-dam-disaster-50521">Who should we blame for the Brazil mining dam disaster?</a>
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<p>The kind of development that is primarily concerned with profits for corporations always occurs at the expense of the most marginalised communities and individuals. All too often their voices are silenced and political accountability is absent. </p>
<p>The evidence indicates that it may <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/experts/oped/view/53494">not be so simple</a> to decouple economic growth from environmental harm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason von Meding has received funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tien Le Thuy Du is affiliated with Da Nang Institute for Socio-Economic Development, Vietnam</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giuseppe Forino does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Images of the aftermath of the Xepian-Xe Nam Noy dam collapse in Laos went around the world. But many other dam projects harm locals and the environment in less visible ways.Jason von Meding, Senior Lecturer in Disaster Risk Reduction, University of NewcastleGiuseppe Forino, PhD Candidate in Disaster Management, University of NewcastleTien Le Thuy Du, PhD Candidate in Geosensing and water management, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/916152018-03-05T11:44:10Z2018-03-05T11:44:10ZFood scholarships could help more students finish college<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206528/original/file-20180215-131013-1ggracb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hunger among college students is a growing problem.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-woman-looking-empty-pantry-seen-141828421?src=qjawE_GCIJtMpiMg6PSlsA-1-1">Steve Cukrov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s hard, if not impossible, to succeed in college if you’re hungry. Seems like such an easy concept that it’s not worth mentioning.</p>
<p>But behind that simple concept are some staggering statistics. According to the <a href="http://www.wihopelab.com/publications/Hungry-and-Homeless-in-College-Report.pdf">Wisconsin HOPE Lab</a>, more than 50 percent of community college students nationwide do not have access to healthy and affordable foods.</p>
<p>As a researcher who focuses on poverty, I believe campus hunger is a significant factor behind <a href="http://time.com/money/4981302/low-income-students-pell-graduate/">inequality in college completion rates</a>. And “food scholarships” may be a solution.</p>
<p>Some elected officials have begun to take notice. Last summer, Gov. Jerry Brown of California included US$7.5 million in his budget to develop <a href="https://www.cacities.org/Top/News/News-Articles/2017/June/FY-2017-18-State-Budget-Package-and-Trailer-Bills">“hunger-free” college campuses</a>. In December, advocates convened a <a href="https://partnersforourchildren.org/blog/poc-co-sponsors-federal-briefing-about-food-insecurity-college-campuses">federal briefing</a> about campus food insecurity on Capitol Hill, where legislators are advancing bills to make it easier for undergraduates to access the <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program</a>, more commonly known as SNAP.</p>
<p>In January, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/03/pf/college/new-york-college-food-pantries/index.html">proposed</a> requiring food pantries on all State University of New York and City University of New York campuses to create a “stigma-free” way to provide students with consistent access to healthy food.</p>
<p>In other states, such as Texas, grassroots efforts are leading the charge. These include a University of Houston and Temple University <a href="http://wihopelab.com/publications/Addressing-Basic-Needs-Security-in-Higher-Education.pdf">research project</a> with which I am involved. The project is meant to study the impact of hunger on community college students and look at possible solutions.</p>
<h2>Hunger transcends class</h2>
<p>Who are the students that don’t have access to healthy and affordable food? </p>
<p>According to Sara Goldrick-Rab, a sociology professor at Temple University and founder of the <a href="http://wihopelab.com/">Wisconsin HOPE Lab</a>, what’s making students go hungry today is different than it was in years gone by.</p>
<p>“Even though a far <a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo24663096.html">greater percentage of college students qualify for financial aid </a> than in the past, <a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo24663096.html">colleges and states have fewer dollars</a> per student to allocate to them,” Goldrick-Rab said.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo24663096.html">majority</a> of these students are financially independent and provide for others. Many are single parents. They grew up in the middle class and did not qualify for reduced-cost or free meals during their K-12 education through the federally funded School Breakfast Program and National School Lunch Program.</p>
<p>But once they graduate high school, parental support often ends and so do the programs meant to help feed them.</p>
<p>These are the students like 25 year-old Ashley Elliot at Houston Community College, who lost both parents and was left in debt, according to officials at the college. With a 3.5 GPA, Elliot is determined to finish school despite mounting financial challenges.</p>
<h2>Food scholarships</h2>
<p>Eighty-eight percent of the students at Houston Community College, polled last semester indicated that food giveaways helped them focus more on school, according to a survey by the college. This is why food scholarships are being pursued as a solution.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.houstonfoodbank.org/programs/ffc/">Houston Food Bank’s Food for Change program</a> seeks to help students by providing them with 60 pounds of food. The groceries available include seasonal produce, frozen meat, dry goods and some canned goods. Goldrick-Rab, the sociology professor at Temple University, and I are evaluating the program in a project supported by the <a href="http://wtgrantfoundation.org/">William T. Grant Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://kresge.org/programs/education">Kresge Foundation</a>.</p>
<p>We believe it’s the kind of program that could bring real change to those who need it most. At the Houston Independent School District, the <a href="http://www.houstonisd.org/achievements">largest school district in Texas</a> and the seventh-largest school district in the United States, 77 percent of children are economically disadvantaged and qualify for the reduced-cost or free breakfast and lunch programs. A number of these students graduate and enroll in community college, including Houston Community College, the second largest community college in Texas.</p>
<p>These students receive financial aid, but the fact that the <a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo24663096.html">cost of tuition is outpacing the cost of living</a> is making it difficult to make ends meet. Once in college, students who experience food insecurity are at risk for <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10668926.2013.850758">academic failure</a>, including lower grade point averages.</p>
<h2>A potential solution</h2>
<p>The impact of HCC’s Food Scholarship Program on students’ academic performance and persistence in college will be evaluated over the next two years. If the program helps students do better in college and stay in college, those outcomes could help convince lawmakers and policymakers to do more to tackle the problem of campus hunger.</p>
<p>In the meantime, students such as Ashley Elliot say it’s important for students to overcome whatever reluctance they may have to ask for help. “Asking for help took me out of my comfort zone, but it was necessary,” Elliot said. “Don’t give up if you don’t initially get the help you need. Sometimes it takes just talking to the right person.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Daphne C. Hernandez and Dr. Sara Goldrick-Rab receive funding from the William T. Grant Foundation and the Kresge Foundation.</span></em></p>It’s hard to succeed in college if you’re hungry. But more than half of community college students don’t have access to affordable and healthy food. What difference can food scholarships make?Daphne Hernandez, Assistant Professor of Nutrition & Obesity Studies, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/808732017-07-21T00:55:42Z2017-07-21T00:55:42ZThe Supreme Court made it harder for states to ban sex offenders from social media. Here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179095/original/file-20170720-10193-1oxlj46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/editorial-athens-30-may-2017-facebook-650320006?src=xGNMhzpZyEJOCbE6GmpB_Q-1-0">Kostasgr/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until recently, North Carolina law prohibited registered sex offenders from using various social media sites, such as Snapchat, Twitter and LinkedIn. </p>
<p>In June, a <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/16pdf/15-1194_08l1.pdf">landmark Supreme court decision</a> in Packingham v. North Carolina overturned that law. </p>
<p>The result is important for two reasons. One, the court addressed the role that the internet now plays in terms of citizens exercising their First Amendment rights. Two, the high court declined to defer to a state legislature’s determination that such a restriction on sex offenders was necessary to protect children.</p>
<p>As a criminologist interested in the best use of science in the law, I have <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2923115_code827096.pdf?abstractid=2923115&type=2">studied</a> the validity of these sex offender laws. </p>
<p>Generally, I have <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1580016_code468680.pdf?abstractid=1580016&type=2">challenged</a> the assumption that greater limitations are justified for sex offenders because of their purported “high risk” of reoffending. The fact is that these assertions are typically not supported by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/06/21/justice-alitos-misleading-claim-about-sex-offender-rearrests/?utm_term=.564a5161404d">studies on recidivism rates</a>.</p>
<p>Undeterred by such evidence, the North Carolina legislature enacted a new sex offender policy in 2008.</p>
<h2>The social media ban at issue</h2>
<p>North Carolina’s law <a href="http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/HTML/BySection/Chapter_14/GS_14-202.5.html">banned</a> registered sex offenders from accessing social networking sites where children under 18 can create accounts. In 2010, police <a href="https://www.themarshallproject.org/2017/02/20/the-man-arrested-for-praising-jesus#.FKH6wuUFh">arrested</a> Lester Packingham, a registered sex offender, after he posted “God is Good!” on his Facebook page. His intent appeared harmless. In the post, Packingham was merely happy a speeding ticket he had received had been thrown out.</p>
<p>Packingham appealed his conviction by challenging the constitutionality of the statute. The appeal eventually made it to the Supreme Court this year.</p>
<p>North Carolina argued the ban was necessary to prevent sex offenders from obtaining the personal information of minors. The state said that sex offenders could use this information to communicate with children and possibly to <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/15-1194-BIO.pdf">lure them for sexual purposes</a>. </p>
<p>Packingham’s lawyers <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/15-1194-petitioner-merits-brief.pdf">argued</a> that the ban was so expansive that it violated his free speech rights – and those of others to whom the ban applied. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court justices’ rejection of the social networking prohibition was unanimous – itself remarkable considering the <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/SB_unanimity_20170628.pdf">high percentage of Supreme Court decisions in recent years</a> with dissenting opinions.</p>
<h2>Not the usual deference</h2>
<p>In the past few decades, legislators across the country have passed numerous laws that apply uniquely to sex offenders. These laws include such things as sex offender registries and residency restrictions. More recently, about a dozen states have passed various types of <a href="http://www.ndaa.org/pdf/Sex%20Offenders%20and%20Social%20Networks_2013.pdf">prohibitions</a> on sex offenders using social media sites.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court has previously accepted state legislative findings that vulnerable children need to be protected from dangerous sex offenders. As a result, the high court has typically <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/01-1231.ZO.html">upheld</a> <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/521/346/case.html">sex offender-based laws</a>.</p>
<p>In the Packingham case, the Supreme Court didn’t seriously challenge North Carolina’s assertion that registered sex offenders pose a significant risk to others. What it did do was rule that the state had not shown that its broad social networking ban served the purpose of protecting potential victims. </p>
<p>The court also expressed concern that the ban interfered with freedom of speech.</p>
<h2>Social networking sites</h2>
<p>This ruling is of interest as the First Amendment’s freedom of speech guarantee has typically been applied in the physical world. Courts recognize that some of the classic places to exercise free speech rights are <a href="http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-supreme-court/491/781.html">streets and parks</a>. These physical locations represent places where people often gather to express views, protest or otherwise communicate with each other. </p>
<p>In Packingham, the court took a rather progressive stance that the internet in general – and social media sites in particular – are now the modern settings in which many Americans exchange ideas. </p>
<p>Writing for the court, Justice Anthony Kennedy observed that social media sites are now among the most important places to exchange ideas. Social networking sites, he noted, are “the principal sources for knowing current events, checking ads for employment, speaking and listening in the modern public square, and otherwise exploring the fact realms of human thought and knowledge. These websites can provide perhaps the most powerful mechanisms available to a private citizen to make his or her voice heard.”</p>
<p>The court noted that online social media sites permit users to exercise a wide variety of First Amendment rights. Even convicted criminals – including registered sex offenders – maintain some legitimate right to use the internet to engage with the world of ideas. </p>
<p>Kennedy further suggested the ban could be counterproductive because social media sites may actually foster rehabilitation by providing avenues for former criminals to successfully reenter civic life. </p>
<h2>State legislatures may try again</h2>
<p>The verdict in the Packingham case does not mean that states may never limit sex offenders’ use of the internet. The Supreme Court noted that the problem was with this overly broad prohibition. North Carolina’s ban prevented access to too many online locations, many of which offer quite legitimate forums in which people can speak and listen. </p>
<p>Thus, the Supreme Court expressly left the door open to some form of social networking ban. The justices indicated that states may well have legitimate interests in protecting vulnerable victims from known sex offenders. </p>
<p>So, can states ban sex offenders from social media? The answer is “maybe.” The trick for legislators will be enacting a law that is sufficiently narrow to protect sex offenders’ free speech rights on the internet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80873/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Hamilton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The court ruled unanimously that access to social media is an essential right.Melissa Hamilton, Senior Lecturer of Law & Criminology, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/779312017-06-06T00:24:55Z2017-06-06T00:24:55ZWe use big data to sentence criminals. But can the algorithms really tell us what we need to know?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171182/original/file-20170526-6389-1djjw9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Use of data-driven risk assessments in sentencing may be heard by the Supreme Court.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kneoh/14931652922/in/photolist-oKsCcL-7GomNn-8yTEo9-7yeMCw-aprwiN-9MVX4J-bMGwZ-bMFBR-7vzYNY-e4cAeq-5nCPgi-bMG7i-xx9XSo-bMFpa-bMGvK-bMbn94-7bo3eY-7z3WDx-oXP3gZ-6qCxCW-7GskFu-5ApJy6-ahi5G4-7KXtxw-DtvK-MLJg-MLJp-GDRLvC-HwyJuy-BNNc3-4naggU-9PURU9-9fY6o-4JUjjb-ahhVgM-6qCxTy-ahi7Ck-5oPmk7-6qCxFj-yZdd-bMJqo-bMJyb-5oPmrq-yY4z-yXK1-6qynWa-6qynUe-d7CC5-9sMTg8-p9xYAF">Karen Neoh/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2013, a man named Eric L. Loomis was sentenced for eluding police and driving a car without the owner’s consent. </p>
<p>When the judge weighed Loomis’ sentence, he considered an array of evidence, including the results of an automated risk assessment tool called <a href="http://www.equivant.com/solutions/inmate-classification">COMPAS</a>. Loomis’ COMPAS score indicated he was at a “high risk” of committing new crimes. Considering this prediction, the judge sentenced him to seven years. </p>
<p>Loomis challenged his sentence, arguing it was <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-6387-cert-petition.pdf">unfair to use the data-driven score against him</a>. The U.S. Supreme Court now must consider whether to hear <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/loomis-v-wisconsin/">his case</a> – and perhaps settle a nationwide debate over whether it’s appropriate for any court to use these tools when sentencing criminals. </p>
<p>Today, judges across the U.S. use <a href="https://epic.org/algorithmic-transparency/crim-justice/">risk assessment tools like COMPAS in sentencing decisions</a>. In at least 10 states, these tools are a formal part of the sentencing process. Elsewhere, judges informally refer to them for <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2961288_code789716.pdf?abstractid=2961288&mirid=1">guidance</a>. </p>
<p>I have studied the legal and scientific bases for risk assessments. The more I investigate the tools, the more my caution about them grows. </p>
<p>The scientific reality is that these risk assessment tools cannot do what advocates claim. The algorithms cannot actually make predictions about future risk for the individual defendants being sentenced. </p>
<h2>The basics of risk assessment</h2>
<p>Judging an individual defendant’s future risk has long been a fundamental part of the sentencing process. Most often, these judgments are made on the basis of some gut instinct. </p>
<p>Automated risk assessment is seen as a way to <a href="http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2011/09/20/riskneeds-assessment-101-science-reveals-new-tools-to-manage-offenders">standardize the process</a>. Proponents of these tools, such as the nonprofit National Center for State Courts, believe that they <a href="http://www.ncsc.org/Services-and-Experts/%7E/media/Files/PDF/Services%20and%20Experts/Areas%20of%20expertise/Sentencing%20Probation/RNA%20Guide%20Final.ashx">offer a uniform and logical way to determine risk</a>. Others laud the tools for using big data.</p>
<p>The basic idea is that these tools can help incapacitate defendants most likely to commit more crimes. At the same time, it may be <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/works/chapter9.htm">more cost-effective to release lower-risk offenders</a>. </p>
<p>All states use risk assessments at one or more stages of the criminal justice process – from arrest to post-prison supervision. There are now <a href="https://csgjusticecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Risk-Assessment-Instruments-Validated-and-Implemented-in-Correctional-Settings-in-the-United-States.pdf">dozens of tools</a> available. Each uses its own more or less complicated algorithm to predict whether someone will reoffend. </p>
<p>Developers of risk assessment tools usually follow a common scientific method. They analyze historical data on the recidivism rates of samples of known criminals. This helps determine which factors are statistically related to recidivism. Characteristics commonly associated with reoffending include a person’s age at first offense, whether the person has a violent past and the stability of the person’s family. </p>
<p>The most important predictors are incorporated into a mathematical model. Then, developers create a statistical algorithm that weighs stronger predictors more heavily than weaker ones. </p>
<p>Criminal history, for instance, is consistently one of the strongest predictors of future crime. Thus, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2555878_code827096.pdf?abstractid=2555878&mirid=1">criminal history tends to be heavily weighted</a>. </p>
<p>The tool typically divides results into different categories, such as low, moderate or high risk. To a decision-maker, these risk bins offer an appealing way to differentiate offenders. In sentencing, this can mean a more severe punishment for those who seem to pose a higher risk of reoffending. But things are not as rosy as they may appear. </p>
<h2>Individualizing punishment</h2>
<p>In the Loomis case, the state of Wisconsin claims that its data-driven result is <a href="https://epic.org/algorithmic-transparency/crim-justice/Wisc-Brief.pdf">individualized to Loomis</a>. But it is not. </p>
<p>Algorithms such as COMPAS cannot make predictions about individual defendants, because data-driven risk tools are based on group statistics. This creates an issue that academics sometimes call the “group-to-individual” or <a href="http://repository.uchastings.edu/faculty_scholarship/1036">G2i problem</a>. </p>
<p>Scientists study groups. But the law sentences the individual. Consider the disconnect between science and the law here. </p>
<p>The algorithms in risk assessment tools commonly assign specific points to different factors. The points are totaled. The total is then often translated to a risk bin, such as low or high risk. Typically, more points means a higher risk of recidivism.</p>
<p>Say a score of 6 points out of 10 on a certain tool is considered “high risk.” In the historical groups studied, perhaps 50 percent of people with a score of 6 points did reoffend. </p>
<p>Thus, one might be inclined to think that a new offender who also scores 6 points is at a 50 percent risk of reoffending. But that would be incorrect. </p>
<p>It may be the case that half of those with a score of 6 in the historical groups studied would later reoffend. However, the tool is unable to select which of the offenders with 6 points will reoffend and which will go on to lead productive lives.</p>
<p>The studies of factors associated with reoffending are not causation studies. They can tell only which factors are correlated with new crimes. Individuals retain some measure of free will to decide to break the law again, or not. </p>
<p>These issues may explain why <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2555867_code827096.pdf?abstractid=2506397&type=2">risk tools often have significant false positive rates</a>. The predictions made by the most popular risk tools for violence and sex offending have been shown to get it wrong for some groups over <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2416918_code827096.pdf?abstractid=2416918&type=2">50 percent</a> of the time. </p>
<p>A ProPublica investigation found that COMPAS, the tool used in Loomis’ case, is burdened by <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/how-we-analyzed-the-compas-recidivism-algorithm">large error rates</a>. For example, COMPAS failed to predict reoffending in one study at a 37 percent rate. The company that makes COMPAS <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/technical-response-to-northpointe">has disputed</a> the study’s methodology.</p>
<h1>Deciding on Loomis</h1>
<p>Unfortunately, in criminal justice, misinterpretations of risk assessment tools are pervasive.</p>
<p>Based on my analysis, I believe these tools cannot, scientifically or practically, provide individualized assessments. This is true no matter how complicated the underlying algorithms. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.northpointeinc.com/downloads/compas/Practitioners-Guide-COMPAS-Core-_031915.pdf">COMPAS documents</a> state the results should not be used for sentencing decisions. Instead, it was designed to assist in supervisory decisions concerning offender needs. Other tool developers tend to indicate that their tool predicts risk at a rate <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44087.pdf">better than chance</a>. </p>
<p>There are also a host of thorny issues with risk assessment tools incorporating, either directly or indirectly, <a href="http://risk-resilience.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/journal-articles/files/annurev-clinpsy-021815-092945.pdf">sociodemographic variables</a>, such as gender, race and social class. Law professor <a href="https://law.ucdavis.edu/faculty/chander/">Anupam Chander</a> has named it the problem of the “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2798402_code366600.pdf?abstractid=2795203&mirid=1">racist algorithm</a>.”</p>
<p>Big data may have its allure. But, data-driven tools cannot make the individual predictions that sentencing decisions require. The Supreme Court might helpfully opine on these legal and scientific issues by deciding to hear the Loomis case.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77931/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Hamilton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court may soon hear a case on data-driven criminal sentencing. Research suggests that algorithms are not as good as we think they are at making these decisions.Melissa Hamilton, Visiting Criminal Law Scholar, University of Houston Law Center, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/589052016-07-18T10:17:10Z2016-07-18T10:17:10ZCurbing the marijuana industry’s voracious energy appetite<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130578/original/image-20160714-23365-1pw0eql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indoor marijuana farms are becoming one of the most energy-intensive industries in the United States</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?searchterm=marijuana&keyword_search=1&page=1&inline=421629436">www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As voters go to the polls this November, at least four states will consider ballot questions on marijuana legalization. Pending proposals in [Nevada](https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative,<em>Question_2</em>(2016), [Maine](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2017) and [California](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative,<em>Proposition_64</em>(2016) would authorize recreational marijuana use, while [Floridians](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Right_to_Medical_Marijuana_Initiative,<em>Amendment_2</em>(2016) will vote on whether to allow medical marijuana use. </p>
<p>Legalization of marijuana in the United States has spread rapidly over the last few years. <a href="http://www.governing.com/gov-data/state-marijuana-laws-map-medical-recreational.html">Half of the states</a> have already legalized marijuana in some form. Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, Washington and the District of Columbia have legalized it for recreational use. And the Democratic Party platform committee recently <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/09/democrats-call-for-pathway-to-marijuana-legalization/?wpisrc=nl_wemost&wpmm=1">voted 81 to 80</a> to amend the federal Controlled Substances Act to remove marijuana from the list of Schedule 1 drugs. The stated purpose of this proposed amendment is to “provid[e] a reasoned pathway for future legalization.”</p>
<p>States with some form of legalized marijuana have implemented stringent regulatory and licensing schemes with regard to the who, what, where and how of marijuana possession, cultivation, and distribution. But policymakers have failed to address an important area: the marijuana industry’s energy and climate impacts. Although marijuana is a plant, it is not a “green” product when grown indoors. As more states – and, potentially, Congress – consider legalizing the marijuana industry, they should also adopt rules to make it more environmentally sustainable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130586/original/image-20160714-23327-1bkz6jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130586/original/image-20160714-23327-1bkz6jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130586/original/image-20160714-23327-1bkz6jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130586/original/image-20160714-23327-1bkz6jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130586/original/image-20160714-23327-1bkz6jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130586/original/image-20160714-23327-1bkz6jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130586/original/image-20160714-23327-1bkz6jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Edible marijuana products for sale in Glenwood Springs, Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kkanouse/12997503633/in/photolist-kNxB1e-n1X8zB-tUyeGH-rg5HiJ-pyekQm-rNJsNL-7PW1Um-bAf769-9E9Ydf-7jTSZg-8G6cMn-kNxuaR-myKN7e-e4a3mg-7PSHbT-iQi9jw-bnsgZh-74pNuM-e4fEzS-9tbaa6-7jTSGv-8mKhzk-nA1kYd-gaC4xa-7jTSEp-e4a2fr-s9J1VN-e4a2n2-izB69N-e4a2t8-qPymPp-7jXLJj-edtyYe-dzKJAn-8B4uXT-7jTSMv-gaCaTq-7jXLHs-7V8maW-7jTSNp-7jTT34-e4gekf-pgKVGt-7jXM5J-7jTSUD-7jXLQj-7jXLVh-kNyToy-7PW2kh-7jXLCL">Kent Kanouse/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Indoor marijuana farms are energy hogs</h2>
<p>Indoor marijuana cultivation is one of the most energy-intensive industries in the United States, generating nearly <a href="https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/02/18/812060/10160191/en/US-Marijuana-Production-Energy-Costs-Exceed-6-Billion.html">US$6 billion</a> in energy costs annually. According to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, which carries out energy planning for the Columbia River Basin states (Montana, Idaho, Washington and Oregon), growing marijuana indoors consumes <a href="http://www.nwcouncil.org/media/7130334/p7.pdf">up to 5,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity</a> per kilogram of output. For comparison, aluminum production requires about 16 kilowatt-hours per kilogram.</p>
<p>Colorado’s experience demonstrates marijuana’s large energy footprint. Since the state legalized recreational marijuana in 2014, the industry has expanded rapidly there. In 2015 legal marijuana businesses in Colorado made <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/02/11/marijuana-billion-dollars-colorado/">nearly $1 billion in sales</a>, up 42 percent from the previous year. And as marijuana businesses become more competitive and specialized, growers are moving their farms indoors to get a more controlled product. </p>
<p>Indoor cultivation requires electricity to power high-intensity lights, frequent air exchanges and ventilation, and to maintain consistent temperatures and humidity levels day and night. As a result, the state now has numerous indoor warehouses that consume huge quantities of electricity. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060036287">Experts estimate</a> that a 5,000-square-foot indoor marijuana facility in Colorado consumes six times more electricity per square foot than an average commercial business, and 49 times more than an average residence. Last year Denver officials <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/2015/07/01/marijuana-growing-spikes-denver-electric-demand-challenges-clean-power-plan/">sought guidance from the Department of Energy</a> on ways to curb the industry’s power requirements. Electricity use in Denver is rising by 1.2 percent yearly, and marijuana farms account for nearly half of the increase.</p>
<p>Colorado has set a <a href="http://energy.gov/savings/renewable-energy-standard">goal</a> of generating 30 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. Currently, however, only <a href="http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=CO">18 percent of its electricity</a> comes from renewable sources. The rest is generated from coal and natural gas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130591/original/image-20160714-23350-1b6ke24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130591/original/image-20160714-23350-1b6ke24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130591/original/image-20160714-23350-1b6ke24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130591/original/image-20160714-23350-1b6ke24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130591/original/image-20160714-23350-1b6ke24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130591/original/image-20160714-23350-1b6ke24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130591/original/image-20160714-23350-1b6ke24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/energyoffice/electricity-overview">Colorado Energy Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On-site generation systems, such as rooftop solar arrays, and community-scale energy projects cannot produce enough electricity to meet marijuana growers’ energy needs. As a result, the marijuana industry is indirectly increasing Colorado’s reliance on fossil fuel.</p>
<p>Legalization provides some energy benefits. For example, it allows indoor cultivators to connect to existing electricity grids instead of relying on carbon-intensive gasoline and diesel generators. However, these benefits are swamped by the industry’s fast-growing electricity requirements. </p>
<p>Experts estimate that nationwide, indoor marijuana cultivation accounts for nearly <a href="http://evanmills.lbl.gov/pubs/pdf/cannabis-carbon-footprint.pdf">15 million metric tons</a> of carbon emissions annually – more than the annual <a href="http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/pdf/table1.pdf">energy-related emissions</a> of South Dakota, Delaware, Rhode Island and Vermont, or the District of Columbia. Public utility commissioners across the nation are <a href="http://www.utilitydive.com/news/pot-power-how-utilities-and-regulators-are-dealing-with-the-budding-mariju/409172/">discussing strategies</a> for managing power demand from indoor pot growers. </p>
<h2>Legalize and regulate</h2>
<p>When states legalize marijuana cultivation, they establish detailed regulatory and licensing schemes governing who may sell, possess and cultivate the plant, where they may do so, and how much they must pay for licenses. Policymakers should also seize this opportunity to enact rules governing the industry’s climate and energy impacts. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130590/original/image-20160714-23323-1j2sirk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130590/original/image-20160714-23323-1j2sirk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130590/original/image-20160714-23323-1j2sirk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130590/original/image-20160714-23323-1j2sirk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130590/original/image-20160714-23323-1j2sirk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130590/original/image-20160714-23323-1j2sirk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130590/original/image-20160714-23323-1j2sirk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">California medical marijuana bottle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gazeronly/26270258070/in/photolist-G2pWtY-Hg1qbx-HfZMsx-GinkRS-Grwx1n-Hd5ugh-H7FRPu-GQLexL-GkFSkt-GQN8Y5-GkwQJ3-Hg1gSi-Hg14Qn-GkDQwz-Hd7ks1-GQLWRY-GkEJSg-GkvYNm-Hk6cN8-Hoe5Uj-Hrb9rM-HhHyXj-Hrb98v-Hoe2US-Hoe2Eo-GvCDRu-GvHH4a-Hk6cf4-Hoe4U3-Hrb9C8-Hoe4pA-HhHzmA-Hrb9fK-Hoe2xu-GvHGGP-EUfYzb-Hoe3kw-usoGJp-Hg2Cxe-Gkw9BE-Hd7xbS-Hd65VN-H7G8mm-Ha1dyM-GkwWhh-GkFpJe-Gkv8Vm-GQMXDN-Hg1HYB-H9XCB2">Scott Richard/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since indoor growers consume such enormous amounts of electricity, policymakers should start by requiring indoor cultivators to consume only carbon-free energy sources or to pay a carbon fee until such measures can be implemented. </p>
<p>Boulder, Colorado is addressing this issue by implementing <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2501126">city and county licensing schemes</a> that require indoor marijuana cultivators to use energy monitoring technology and routinely report their energy use. Growers must offset their energy use by utilizing 100 percent renewable energy, purchasing renewable energy credits, or paying a carbon fee. However, few other states or localities have followed Boulder’s lead. </p>
<p>Oregon has established <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2016/06/task_force_looks_at_energy_wat.html">a task force</a> to study energy and water use for marijuana production. The group is scheduled to report its findings to the state legislature later this summer. Preliminary indications are that the task force will call on growers to follow energy best practices, but it is unclear whether it will recommend making this policy mandatory or merely a suggestion. </p>
<p>States that do not have enough renewable energy generation to meet the industry’s electricity demands, such as in Colorado, should take a <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2501126">two-pronged approach</a>. First, they should require indoor growers to pay escalating carbon fees based on their electricity consumption. These funds should be used to support development of more efficient technology and climate-friendly electricity facilities. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130583/original/image-20160714-23342-ajsiin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130583/original/image-20160714-23342-ajsiin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130583/original/image-20160714-23342-ajsiin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130583/original/image-20160714-23342-ajsiin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130583/original/image-20160714-23342-ajsiin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130583/original/image-20160714-23342-ajsiin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130583/original/image-20160714-23342-ajsiin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Growing marijuana in greenhouses is one strategy to reduce electricity use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/s/marijuana+farm/search.html?page=1&inline=348706922">www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, legislators should also require an exponential increase in the percentage of energy consumed by indoor growers from renewable energy sources via on site generation – such as rooftop solar – or community renewable energy facilities. This two-pronged approach would ensure growers do not become complacent just paying the fee. </p>
<p>The best time to address impacts of this magnitude is before they occur, not after a major industry is already established. Marijuana production is rapidly developing into an extremely lucrative industry that can afford to manage its impacts on the environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58905/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Warren does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As more states legalize marijuana, growing pot indoors is consuming massive quantities of energy. Rules for this new industry should include requirements to use clean power or pay carbon fees.Gina Warren, Associate Professor of Law, University of HoustonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561652016-03-23T04:03:46Z2016-03-23T04:03:46ZUrbanisation in developing countries: a completely different kettle of fish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114914/original/image-20160314-11285-mjxdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many developing countries are highly urbanised but lack large industrial sectors.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Akintunde Akinleye</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The patterns of urbanisation in the developing world in the past few decades have diverged significantly from historical trends. For the developed world, significant urbanisation was associated with industrialisation. With the cities came the factories. </p>
<p>But today many developing countries, though highly urbanised, lack large industrial sectors. Nigeria, for example, has the same percentage of its population living in cities as China does.</p>
<p>In our <a href="http://home.gwu.edu/%7Ejedwab/GJV2015_JoEG.pdf">forthcoming paper</a> we find that the historically tight relationship between urbanisation and industrialisation breaks down for much of the developing world. In particular, this divergence is reflected in the large number of natural resource exporters that have urbanised without industrialising.</p>
<h2>How it happens in natural resource exporters</h2>
<p>We compared urbanisation rates to the share of manufacturing and services represented in GDP (2010). This indicates that non-resource exporting countries maintain a tight positive relationship between industrialisation and urbanisation. This is consistent with the historical association. </p>
<p>No such relationships exist for countries that rely more heavily on natural resource exports. Several resource-exporters reach 80% urbanisation rates, despite having only 20% of their GDP come from manufacturing and services.</p>
<p>The breakdown of the link between urbanisation and industrialisation is pronounced across regions. In Asia and Latin America urbanisation is tightly linked to shares of manufacturing and services in GDP. But in Africa and the Middle East no such association is apparent. Here an increasing share of natural resources in GDP is tightly correlated with urbanisation. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114917/original/image-20160314-11264-gslpq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114917/original/image-20160314-11264-gslpq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114917/original/image-20160314-11264-gslpq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114917/original/image-20160314-11264-gslpq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114917/original/image-20160314-11264-gslpq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114917/original/image-20160314-11264-gslpq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114917/original/image-20160314-11264-gslpq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Asia and Latin America urbanisation is tightly linked to shares of manufacturing and services in GDP.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Paulo Whitaker</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our paper makes these correlations more explicit, and confirms that they are robust. We used a sample of 116 developing countries observed each decade from 1960 to 2010. Our study shows that under a variety of specifications there is a statistically significant and economically meaningful association between resource exports and urbanisation rates. </p>
<p>In our preferred panel specifications, a one standard deviation increase in resource exports is associated with a 0.51 standard deviation increase in the urbanisation rate. Put more simply, it translates into roughly a 13 percentage point increase in urbanisation.</p>
<p>To confirm this phenomenon, we look for evidence of a causal link between resource-exports and urbanisation rates. We capture the effect of resource-led exports on urban growth by using new resource discoveries and international price shocks as a variable. Think of our approach as a kind of “difference-in-difference” estimation.</p>
<p>Over the study time period, countries that discovered new resources are assigned to the “treatment” group. An example is Botswana’s diamond discovery in 1968. Countries that do not experience major resource discoveries serve as the “control” or comparison group.</p>
<p>Our results are consistent with the cross-section and panel findings: resource exports do in fact cause a significant increase in urbanisation rates. The effect is not driven by a handful of extreme resource-exporters, such as Saudi Arabia. Instead, it holds across a whole range of developing nations. The size of the estimated effect is quite strong. This indicates that an appreciable shock to resource exports – from say a discovery – can raise the urbanisation rate by 10-12 percentage points over several decades.</p>
<h2>Urbanisation, jobs and poverty</h2>
<p>The effect of resources on urbanisation runs deeper than this, though. The composition of urban employment differs starkly between resource-exporters and non-exporters, holding income levels and urbanisation rates constant.</p>
<p>Using <a href="https://international.ipums.org/international/">IPUMS </a> census micro-data, labour force surveys and household survey data, we look at the sectoral composition of urban areas in a sub-sample of 88 countries. We find a key distinction in the labour allocations of resource-exporters and non-exporters.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114915/original/image-20160314-11302-1xkw3b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114915/original/image-20160314-11302-1xkw3b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114915/original/image-20160314-11302-1xkw3b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114915/original/image-20160314-11302-1xkw3b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114915/original/image-20160314-11302-1xkw3b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114915/original/image-20160314-11302-1xkw3b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114915/original/image-20160314-11302-1xkw3b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s urban centres are best characterised as</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Aly Song</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We characterise resource-exporting urban centres as “consumption cities”. This is where a large fraction of workers are employed in non-tradable services such as commerce and transportation or personal and government services. In contrast, urban centres in China or other historical cities are best characterised as “production cities”. Here a large fraction of workers are engaged in manufacturing or in tradable services, such as finance.</p>
<p>This does not imply that resource-exporting cities are necessarily poorer. Unconditionally, natural resource exporters have lower poverty rates and slum shares than non-exporters. But if we control for income levels and urbanisation rates, resource exporters appear to have higher poverty rates and slum shares. The results of our comparison suggest that the positive effect of income on living standards is lower for resource exporters. </p>
<p>To illustrate why industrialisation and urbanisation need not be synonymous, we develop a model of structural change that features two types of urban production: tradable and non-tradable goods. The basic logic is that urbanisation is driven by income effects. Any income shock will cause a shift away from economic activities in rural areas and encourage the movement of production and people into urban areas. This is true whether the income shock is caused by industrial productivity or resource revenues.</p>
<p>But the source of the shock does matter for which sector the new urban workers will be employed in. With a resource shock, there is a Dutch Disease outcome. Workers substitute away from the tradable goods sector and into non-tradable. Hence the cities grow into “consumption cities”, dominated by non-tradable employment.</p>
<p>A productivity shock in the tradable sector pulls workers into that sector and away from rural areas. This leads to urbanisation in “production cities” being dominated by tradable production.</p>
<h2>Implications for development</h2>
<p>Resource-exporting countries thus urbanise without acquiring the industrial sectors that we typically associate with development. The “consumption cities” of resource-exporters may exert an influence on future growth. Much research in the growth literature suggests that convergence is faster in industrial sectors than in services. This suggests that the source of urbanisation, while inconsequential to the level of urbanisation, may be consequential for development in the long run.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114916/original/image-20160314-11274-1tx82m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114916/original/image-20160314-11274-1tx82m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114916/original/image-20160314-11274-1tx82m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114916/original/image-20160314-11274-1tx82m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114916/original/image-20160314-11274-1tx82m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114916/original/image-20160314-11274-1tx82m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114916/original/image-20160314-11274-1tx82m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cities such as San Francisco were once</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shanghai and Lagos, for example, are cities in countries with similar urbanisation rates. But it seems unlikely that at this point Lagos contains the same potential for growth as Shanghai.</p>
<p>At the same time, resource-led urbanisation does not necessarily imply that development is impossible. Cities such as San Francisco, Denver and Houston could be considered “consumption cities” in their past. Over time, however, they have developed into what we would term “production cities”.</p>
<p>We believe there is value in showing that urbanisation is more than a synonym for industrialisation. Given the widespread reliance on resource exports, especially in Africa, a significant portion of urbanisation in the developing world over the past few decades has been driven by resources. Understanding the dynamics of resource-led urbanisation will be important for thinking about the growth of cities and the process of development. </p>
<p><em>This article is an edited extract from a <a href="http://www.theigc.org/blog/urbanisation-with-and-without-industrialisation/">blog</a> published by the International Growth Centre.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dietrich Vollrath has nothing to disclose. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Doug Gollin receives funding from the International Growth Centre and its Ethiopia Country Programme. In the past five years he has received funding from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the CGIAR. Some of his work has received indirect support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and DFID.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Remi Jedwab receives funding from the World Bank Urbanisation and Transportation Programmes and the SOAR fund and the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.
</span></em></p>Developing countries, specifically in sub-Saharan Africa, are urbanising without industrialising, a trajectory that leaves them with relatively higher poverty rates and share of slums.Dietrich Vollrath, Associate Professor of Economics, University of HoustonDoug Gollin, Lead Academic, Ethiopia team, University of OxfordRemi Jedwab, Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs, George Washington UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.