tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-sheffield-1147/articlesThe University of Sheffield2024-03-21T09:54:20Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217982024-03-21T09:54:20Z2024-03-21T09:54:20ZI’ve spent time with refugees in French coastal camps and they told me the government’s Rwanda plan is not putting them off coming to the UK<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582207/original/file-20240315-30-4n1fo5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C970%2C5326%2C3017&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Refugees in line for food outside a 'wild camp' in Loon Plage in 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Frédérique de Bels</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>I was warned by a French Egyptian not to cross the channel, not to go to the UK and to try to stay in France … But I have not escaped the police brutality from my country, smugglers from Libya, the crossing of the Mediterranean and the ‘jungle’ in France for nothing. I was determined to come to the UK. DM Boss (pseudonym), Egyptian asylum seeker</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is 7am and I’m sitting in Pierre Lascoux’s old van with his dog, Arthur, at my feet. Lascoux, a 60-year-old volunteer, has dedicated the past two years of his life to helping refugees. </p>
<p>Every morning for four weeks we have talked about the <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/12/16/in-calais-the-blind-spots-of-the-french-government-s-immigration-bill-are-laid-bare_6350192_7.html">plight of refugees</a> in the Loon Plage camp in Dunkirk’s industrial zone. Lascoux recently finished a 42-day hunger strike in order to raise awareness about the awful living conditions endured by the migrant population at the border. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Man posing with dog and child. Child's faced blurred out so as not to identify them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582601/original/file-20240318-20-fy8o7r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582601/original/file-20240318-20-fy8o7r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582601/original/file-20240318-20-fy8o7r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582601/original/file-20240318-20-fy8o7r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582601/original/file-20240318-20-fy8o7r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582601/original/file-20240318-20-fy8o7r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582601/original/file-20240318-20-fy8o7r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Volunteer Peirre Lascoux, of Salam charity, with dog Arthur helping refugees at Loon Plage camp.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pierre Lascoux</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I volunteered in French refugee camps in Dunkrik and Calais in the summer of 2023. It was part of my fieldwork and research around the concept of “hospitality” at different militarised border zones. </p>
<p>While I was in the camps I witnessed police violence and saw refugees cramming on a boat that was clearly not big enough to take them. I heard guns being fired and moved among the smuggling gangs and mafia in charge of the crossings, hearing stories from people who had been through hell in their own countries and on the journey to France. </p>
<p>Despite the relentless hardships and suffering, one thing appeared to unite them: they wanted to seek sanctuary in the UK. And headline-grabbing policies about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/05/the-tragedy-of-leonard-farruku-the-gifted-young-musician-whose-dream-of-a-better-life-ended-on-the-bibby-stockholm">floating prisons</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-many-critics-of-the-rwanda-deportation-policy-are-missing-the-point-of-why-its-wrong-221425">flights to Rwanda</a> were not going to stop them. They had come this far and they were determined to finish their journey.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Loon Plage</h2>
<p>Back in Lascoux’s van, we survey the horizon for French riot police, the Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité (CRS), who frequently come early in the morning to dismantle the camp. Faced by a mound of rubbish at the entrance (because the local authorities refuse to provide a skip), Lascoux waits every morning to provide aid to the refugees when they get thrown out. These days, the police dismantle Loon Plage every two weeks and the Calais camps every two days. </p>
<p>Lascoux lets people leave their personal belongings in his van so the cleaning company which accompanies the police doesn’t throw away all their cherished belongings. During the last evacuation the police forcibly removed Lascoux from the camp and illegally confiscated his van. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man is carried away by police." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582604/original/file-20240318-28-zrq5eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582604/original/file-20240318-28-zrq5eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582604/original/file-20240318-28-zrq5eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582604/original/file-20240318-28-zrq5eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582604/original/file-20240318-28-zrq5eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1055&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582604/original/file-20240318-28-zrq5eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1055&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582604/original/file-20240318-28-zrq5eh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1055&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pierre Lascoux being forcibly removed from Loon Plage camp by French police.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pierre Lascoux</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The camp is reminiscent of the infamous <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-calais-jungle-is-there-a-long-term-solution-views-from-france-and-britain-67352">Calais Jungle</a>, which was shut down in 2016. I will never forget the image of a group of people, whose boat had capsized, walking back to the camp in the early hours of the morning. One couple pushed a supermarket trolley with two young children who must have been younger than five-years-old and who were drenched and haggard. They must have walked at least a dozen kilometres from the beach where they had probably stayed for days before trying to climb into the rubber dinghy. Everyone there tries several times before being successful and each time they fail they have to trudge back to the camp, exhausted.</p>
<p>Loon Plage is a series of wild camps; they cannot really be called refugee camps. Refugee camps are usually places run by state organisations or charities; places where people can seek sanctuary and, <a href="https://www.unrefugees.org/refugee-facts/camps/#:%7E:text=Food%2C%20water%20access%20points%20and,services%20of%20the%20host%20community">according to</a> the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), refugees have to be provided with shelter, food, water and latrines. </p>
<p>But Loon Plage really is a “jungle”. That’s what the refugees call every wild camp along the north coast. There used to be <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/04/1006481">access to water</a>, which was originally intended for use by the fire service. But because refugees used it to wash, the police blocked it. As a result, a 22-year-old <a href="https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/1215355/article/2022-08-10/loon-plage-un-migrant-meurt-noye-dans-un-canal">Sudanese man died</a> in 2022 while trying to wash in the canal which runs adjacent to the camp. In Calais, it is not uncommon to see 1,000 litre water tanks distributed by charities like <a href="https://calaisfood.wixsite.com/home/">Calais Food Collective</a> being stabbed by the police forces or disappearing overnight. According to Rachel Read, a volunteer for Calais Food Collective: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It does not matter how hostile the state tried to make it here, they are not going to stop coming. If anything they are going to keep coming more because France is such a hostile place that they try to move through it and out.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Lascoux works for <a href="https://www.associationsalam.org/">Salam</a>, a refugee charity which was established after the arrival of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/may/23/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices1">first Kosovar refugees</a> in the 1990s. Salam recently succeeded in obtaining a water point and a skip for the Loon Plage camp following Lascoux’s <a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/occitanie/tarn/albi/40-jours-sans-manger-pour-aider-les-migrants-l-ancien-boulanger-du-sud-de-la-france-obtient-gain-de-cause-2899565.html">hunger strike</a>, which ended with his hospitalisation. Lascoux is currently regaining his strength. The last time we spoke he told me: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is a small victory but the fight must go on. It is intolerable to see human beings treated worse than animals in France in the 21st century.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>‘Stop the boats’</h2>
<p>I have been interested in the <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/98681/3/Mathieu%20Pernot%20and%20Les%20Migrants-%20Voicing%20the%20Silence%20and%20Exposing%20French%20Neo-colonial%20History%20and%20Practices..pdf">representation of migration</a> for several years, and I had already been to Calais with Franco-Swiss <a href="https://www.centrephotogeneve.ch/en/artist/elisa-larvego/">photographer Elisa Larvego</a> in January 2023 researching <a href="https://player.sheffield.ac.uk/exhibits/calais-and-out-focus">alternative representations of migration</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Barbed wire fencing surrounding coastal refugee camp." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583138/original/file-20240320-28-cw6l8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583138/original/file-20240320-28-cw6l8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583138/original/file-20240320-28-cw6l8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583138/original/file-20240320-28-cw6l8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583138/original/file-20240320-28-cw6l8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583138/original/file-20240320-28-cw6l8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583138/original/file-20240320-28-cw6l8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Video still from ‘The Going Towards’ by Elisa Larvego, 2023. Images shows the end of the harbour that has been ‘protected’ from the refugees trying to reach the lorries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.centrephotogeneve.ch/en/artist/elisa-larvego/">Elisa Larvego</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I use the term “refugee” instead of the negative term of “migrant” because on the camps there are <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/stories/unhcr-viewpoint-refugee-or-migrant-which-right">both categories</a>. But the people I met all sought refuge from desperate circumstances and should all be deserving of protection.</p>
<p>I wanted to see what was happening with my own eyes and speak with both volunteers and refugees: to hear their stories directly and gain a better understanding of these highly contentious border areas – all of which are linked to the highly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/29/uk-france-small-boats-pact-doubling-drownings-directly-linked">politicised migration argument</a> between France and the UK.</p>
<p>According to the UK government, in the year ending September 2023, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-september-2023/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-september-2023#:%7E:text=In%20the%20year%20ending%20September%202023%20there%20were%2037%2C556%20people,as%20shown%20in%20Figure%202">37,556 people arrived in the UK</a> in small boats which sailed from the northern coast of France. (There were 44,490 in 2022.)</p>
<p>According to Lascoux, in summer 2023, the population of Loon Plage fluctuated from around 300 in June to 2,000 in August, depending on appropriate weather conditions for attempting a crossing. These numbers were based on the number of meals that were distributed by Salam each day and Lascoux’s knowledge of the camp.</p>
<p>Since February 2003 and the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/273239/6604.pdf">Touquet agreement</a>, the French and British governments have operated <a href="https://homeofficemedia.blog.gov.uk/2023/04/06/the-uks-juxtaposed-border-controls/">juxtaposed border controls</a>. In return for financial compensation, France agreed to take charge of border surveillance and the regulation of illegal migration flows. Then, 20 years later, at the 36th bilateral Franco-British summit in March 2023, the UK pledged <a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/hauts-de-france/pas-calais/calais/traversees-de-la-manche-londres-investit-541-millions-d-euros-pour-securiser-la-frontiere-2730574.html">€541 million</a> (around £460 million) to France over three years to curb illegal crossings into the UK – to stop the boats.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/letzWz7_Jqo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>But it is not working. What I witnessed during my stay on the camps is that securing the borders does not prevent people from crossing – everyone crosses, it is just a matter of time. </p>
<p>Rather than stopping the boats the policy, which has seen the French police enforce “<a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/10/07/enforced-misery/degrading-treatment-migrant-children-and-adults-northern-france">zero-fixation points</a>” to prevent refugees settling anywhere, has simply led to an increase in violence by the authorities. This, in turn, has made crossing <a href="https://alarmphone.org/en/2024/01/28/the-deadly-consequences-of-the-new-deal-to-stop-the-boats/?post_type_release_type=post">more costly, violent and dangerous</a>. But violence and danger were just a daily reality inside the camps, as I was to learn. </p>
<h2>Smugglers run the camps</h2>
<p>I soon realised that the Loon Plage was run by <a href="https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/1379909/article/2023-10-01/grande-synthe-ils-partent-en-prison-pour-une-quarantaine-de-passages-illegaux-en">Iraqi-Kurdish smugglers</a>, who have also infiltrated the town of <a href="https://webdoc.france24.com/france-first-humanitarian-camp-grande-synthe/">Grande Synthe</a> and have a monopoly on boat crossings on this part of the <a href="https://www.visitpasdecalais.com/">Pas de Calais</a> coast.</p>
<p>The mafia-like organisation they belong to is structured and runs quite smoothly. Permanent “staff” run the “shops”, maintain the camp and feed the refugees who have paid for an “all-inclusive” passage. These “permanents” are people who have decided to remain in the region to control who comes and goes. The shops are small stalls at the entrance of the camp where food and cigarettes are sold. Some people, whose families have sold everything or who have more financial means, will manage to pay for the whole journey from their country of origin to the UK. This category of people do not usually stay long in camps because their journey has already been negotiated and paid for from the outset.</p>
<p>The shops are sometimes used as payment points and also act as relays for <em>les petites mains</em>, or “little hands”, the ever-changing mafia workforce. The little hands include recruiters who generally work between Calais and Grande-Synthe to recruit refugees who have arrived alone and who want to make the crossing and the “organisers” who accompany each convoy of refugees on the beach on the night of the crossing and who stay with them while waiting for the boats.</p>
<p>I learned from my interviews that the smuggling network has many recruiters working from other towns and countries in Africa and in the Middle East. They also recruit refugees to pilot the boats. It is hard to find boat pilots, so at times they get paid in addition to getting a free crossing.</p>
<h2>The permanents</h2>
<p>So during our morning visits to the camp, Lascoux and I would talk to the permanents. They are exclusively men. When women are present they are often part of a family and they only transit via the camp – they never stay. The camp can be especially brutal for women travelling alone, so associations like <a href="https://www.dunkirkrefugeewomenscentre.com/">Refugee Women Centre</a> try to relocate them to refuge houses where they are safer like at the <a href="https://maisonsesame.org/">Maison Sésame</a> in the town of Hezeele, northern France. </p>
<p>In a supermarket trolley, which they normally use to transport belongings, the shop owners set up a wood fire and two large black cast-iron kettles and heat the water for the coffee on a blackened grate. The pungent smell from the fire is due to the hydro-alcoholic gel and plastic crates they use for fuel. They ask if we want to join them for a coffee. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582208/original/file-20240315-18-ma9m6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582208/original/file-20240315-18-ma9m6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582208/original/file-20240315-18-ma9m6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582208/original/file-20240315-18-ma9m6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582208/original/file-20240315-18-ma9m6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582208/original/file-20240315-18-ma9m6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582208/original/file-20240315-18-ma9m6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Camp coffee with the ‘permanents’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Watt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These men would often come and ask me to eat with them or join them for mugs of tea. It seems nice, but it is also to check out who I am and to figure out what I’m doing there. The shop “owners” and the little hands are suspicious of everyone. </p>
<p>Human trafficking brings in huge sums of money for smugglers operating out of Paris, London and even Baghdad. But the fact that I’m volunteering for Salam to distribute meals quells some of their suspicions. As does the fact that I’m with Lascoux, who regularly brings wood, tents, blankets and clothes.</p>
<h2>The crossings</h2>
<p>There is little freedom in the camp and each refugee is attached to a recruiter, who works for one or two smugglers. The traffickers have claimed different parts of the beaches along the coast and compete with each other in order to gain more custom. Once the refugees have paid their passage (between €800 and €4,500, depending on their nationality), the smuggler allocates them a convoy “team” which often waits in the woods near the beach for several days before attempting to cross. Kevin, from Guinea, who tried to cross while I was there and whom I interviewed both in Calais and when he arrived in the UK, told me:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There were 55 people in my convoy and in the forest there were more than 250 people who waited for four days because there were five smugglers who had their group. In our group, there were women and children too, and we had nothing to eat for four days. It was raining, the weather was bad and the waves were rough. One of the boats overturned on departure.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many families and children transit via Loon Plage rather than Calais, where conditions are even more harsh due to more frequent police evacuations. DM Boss said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I tried three times to cross but only paid once. Each time we were waiting in the woods for hours and even days before the crossing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At each stage, the refugees are surrounded by the little hands, different teams for different places, who keep an eye on them and tell them what to do. The convoys are also infiltrated by the gangs to ensure that the refugees are not working for the police or informing journalists. </p>
<p>As in Loon Plage, the convoys mix nationalities and therefore prices. Sub-Saharan Africans pay less (between €800 and €1,200) than the Vietnamese or Albanians, who can pay up to €4,500 and who have arrived in the north of France as part of their own smuggling networks. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582209/original/file-20240315-16-s9emcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582209/original/file-20240315-16-s9emcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582209/original/file-20240315-16-s9emcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582209/original/file-20240315-16-s9emcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582209/original/file-20240315-16-s9emcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582209/original/file-20240315-16-s9emcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582209/original/file-20240315-16-s9emcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A young refugee walking with all his belongings in a shopping trolley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Watt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are few sub-Saharan Africans at Loon Plage and they are often recruited as the boat pilots or as recruiters, as this pays for the crossing. Making sure that a group of sub-Saharan Africans gets on board, despite the fact that they can usually only afford minimum price, allows the pilot to remain unidentified once in Dover. The pilot is often therefore a refugee who did not have any other means to pay for the crossing and who has very limited experience in steering boats.</p>
<p>This network of people trafficking can only exist and be extremely lucrative because the French and the British governments have not agreed to establish safe passages between France and the UK and are determined to invest in “securing” the border instead.</p>
<h2>The sound of gunfire</h2>
<p>It was difficult to get close to refugees in the camp because being seen talking to me could put them at risk. A few of the interviews I undertook with refugees I met in the camp took place in the UK once they had crossed. </p>
<p>Each talked about the <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/societe/flambee-de-violences-a-loon-plage-des-migrants-a-la-merci-des-reseaux-20220916_L2TWS6SD35BUNHXFWL7X27N6OM/">violence</a> at night and the fact that the Kurdish mafia is heavily armed. While on the camp I heard gunshots several times and was told they were “just shooting rats”. DM Boss, who stayed at Loon Plage for two months, confessed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I could not sleep in the tent at night, I had to get out and wait in the woods because in the evenings once the NGOs and charities are gone the smugglers and little hands talk and argue and get their guns out; so I used to wait until they went to sleep.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In May 2022, two Iraqi men <a href="https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/1184033/article/2022-05-24/grande-synthe-un-homme-tue-par-balle-et-un-autre-blesse-pres-d-un-camp-de">were shot</a> in the camp and one died from his wounds. In February 2023 another Iraqi man <a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/hauts-de-france/nord-0/dunkerque/un-blesse-grave-par-balle-dans-le-camp-de-migrants-de-loon-plage-2713962.html">was shot</a> and seriously injured. Many more incidents go unreported. </p>
<p>The Kurdish network is renowned for its efficacy, but due to the increasing police presence on the beaches, they are starting to take more risks. The coordinator of the charity Utopia 56 Grande Synthe, Fabien Touchard, explained that police violence has gradually moved from the camp to the beaches at night because it is harder for the associations (mainly <a href="https://utopia56.org/grande-synthe-3/">Utopia 56</a> and <a href="https://www.helloasso.com/associations/osmose-62">Osmose 62</a>) to witness everything that happens along the coast as far as Belgium. </p>
<p>Smugglers are taking risks with the lives of refugees, by forcing them in ever more dangerous numbers on to boats which cannot handle them in order to escape the French police. In fact, in the year ending September 2023, there was <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-september-2023/irregular-migration-to-the-uk-year-ending-september-2023">an average of</a> 48 people per small boat, which was higher than the previous year (37) and much higher than earlier years – in 2020 there were 13 per small boat, in 2019 11 and in 2018 the number was seven.</p>
<p>The boat crossings have become better organised, as risk levels have increased. For example, <a href="https://wedodata.fr/productions/lesjours-morts-calais/">397 refugees</a> have died since 1999 trying to cross the Franco-British border. And in one single incident on November 24, 2021, <a href="https://www.lepoint.fr/societe/calais-5-migrants-meurent-dans-un-naufrage-darmanin-sur-place-24-11-2021-2453649_23.php#11">27 refugees drowned</a>. Just after I left Calais, on August 12, <a href="https://www.nordlittoral.fr/182172/article/2023-08-13/six-nouveaux-morts-en-mer-et-des-disparus-au-large-de-calais-retour-sur-la">six people died</a> at sea, while on January 14 2024 <a href="https://calaismigrantsolidarity.wordpress.com/deaths-at-the-calais-border/">four Syrian refugees</a> (two young men and two children) were killed attempting a crossing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582210/original/file-20240315-30-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582210/original/file-20240315-30-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582210/original/file-20240315-30-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582210/original/file-20240315-30-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582210/original/file-20240315-30-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582210/original/file-20240315-30-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582210/original/file-20240315-30-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graffiti in Loon Plage, near the railway line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Watt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most recent victim is a seven-year-old girl, named Roula, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/they-dont-see-us-as-humans-familys-anger-at-people-smugglers-after-daughter-dies-in-boat-tragedy-13089652">who died</a> while crossing the Channel with her pregnant mother, father and her three siblings.</p>
<p>More frequent boat crossings began in 2018 after a few successful attempts were made in 2017 following the dismantlement of the Calais Jungle in 2016. They gradually replaced the crossings in lorries which had become too dangerous and almost impossible due to new technology employed by border police.</p>
<h2>Night patrols and ‘taxi boats’</h2>
<p>I patrolled the coast around Boulogne-Sur-Mer at night with <a href="https://www.facebook.com/p/Association-Osmose62-100085195519283/">Osmose 62</a>. Charity founders and volunteers Dany Patous and Olivier Moctar Barbès patrol the coast most nights before going to work. They explained how the smugglers were changing their techniques to adjust to the increased policing. The latest technique is called “taxi boat”. </p>
<p>Instead of awaiting pick-up on the beach, refugees are told to wait in the water at different locations along the coast to stop the police from chasing them. The boats then pick up the groups at sea the same night, and end up cramming in more people and taking longer, more perilous routes to Dover.</p>
<p>The night patrols, or <em>marauds</em>, are surreal. Walking through a ghost town at night, along small roads, along the coast, as well as car parks near beaches; being on the lookout for any signs of refugees and on constant alert for the police.</p>
<p>For me it was high in adrenaline and emotion because the objective was to help refugees who had failed to cross, while at the same time making sure not to reveal their presence to the authorities.</p>
<p>Before I arrived at the rendezvous point at 4am I saw a big group of refugees roaming the streets of Boulogne and I told Barbès. It was then impossible to find them again. Barbès said: “They have learned the art of making themselves invisible because of the chase with the police forces.” After patrolling the town, we drove along the coast and stopped at different beaches where we met a group of French police. They asked us for ID and told us that they were looking for a large group that was hiding in the nearby woods.</p>
<p>That night, we stopped for a group of young Syrian men who needed hot drinks and food before going back to Calais on foot. </p>
<p>Later, we watched as 40 people crammed on a small inflatable zodiac boat leaving the coast in the early hours of the morning at around 6am. We arrived just after the boat had left but the police officers present, who had not bothered chasing them, told us that the departure had been chaotic with women and children shouting. The boat had a problem with the motor and was progressing slowly in circles. It looked so flimsy and so small and was taking so long to reach the open sea that one of the police officers said that they would never make it. </p>
<p>This boat was later rescued by the coastguard because it had started sinking. They did not reach British waters this time. According to the refugees I interviewed and some volunteers, departures are extremely traumatic, because they are all fighting to get on board as quickly as possible when there is not enough space to accommodate everyone. Marie, from <a href="https://www.osrefugeeaidteam.org/projects/refugee-womens-centre-rwc/">Refugee Women Center</a>, said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is not uncommon for the little hands to throw women overboard when the boat is too crowded. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>And DM Boss told me: “I retrieved a little boy by the leg while he was being stepped on by people jumping on board.”</p>
<p>When I was in Calais I met a Sudanese refugee, a professor in political science at the University of Khartoum, with his nine-month-old baby. They had been separated from the baby’s mother and the couple’s two other children while trying to get on board a boat. He was caught by the police and had been prevented from crossing with the rest of his family. He has been staying in a refuge house ever since and has tried to cross with his baby dozens of times with no success, while his wife and other two boys are near London. </p>
<h2>The many jungles of Calais</h2>
<p>Many refugees travel between Calais and Loon Plage in order to negotiate their crossing. In Calais I interviewed around 20 volunteers and refugees in safe places but I could only interview one refugee away from the camp in Grande-Synthe and a few others in my car. </p>
<p>Since the dismantling of the big jungle, the mayor of Calais, Natasha Bouchard, has tried everything to deter refugees from arriving in the region to the extent that she managed to obtain the right to <a href="https://www.infomigrants.net/fr/post/34530/calais--larrete-interdisant-la-distribution-de-repas-aux-migrants-de-nouveau-reconduit">forbid food and water distribution</a> in September 2020. Partly because of this more arduous environment, the “jungles” in Calais are smaller and usually populated by younger men and teenagers. </p>
<p>The camps are grouped by nationality, which means that the tensions are not always as high as in Loon Plage. I informally talked with a few Afghan people who had to leave Afghanistan because they had been working for the British and American forces as translators and saw their lives put at risk after the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/10/thousands-of-afghans-who-helped-british-forces-remain-stranded-by-uk">recent withdrawal</a> of the British forces in the region.</p>
<p>I managed to interview five people from Guinea, Chad, Iran and Sudan and found a smaller camp of Francophone Africans within the Sudanese camp who did not want to be interviewed but who were proud to show me their survival skills. They were cooking when I arrived and although their tents were deep in mud they had managed to build a common area for eating with a roof made of wood and recycled tent material. </p>
<p>Most of these young men, aged between 15 and 25, had been through Ceuta or Melilla together (Spanish enclaves in Morocco) where the living conditions were even more dangerous and precarious than on the French northern border and they were talking about their journey through Morocco like they were war veterans. They had managed to climb over the three six-metre high border fences despite being wounded and under attack from both the Moroccan and Spanish police forces. They were proud and felt invincible and spoke like an army of child soldiers ready to conquer the world. </p>
<h2>Kevin’s journey</h2>
<p>Kevin, who is from Nzérékoré, a city in Guinea’s south-eastern forest region, took me to his camp after our first interview in my car. He was proud to show me that they had built a “Francophone corner” within the Sudanese camp. He introduced me to all his friends one by one who shook my hand and asked me if I wanted to stay and eat with them. They were all from different parts of West Africa – Burkina-Faso, Cameroon, Guinea, Ivory Coast – and they were proud of their journey, but were tired of staying in Calais where they had been for several months. Kevin said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I managed to climb the three walls in Ceuta with a broken hand after seven years on the road and in the desert going through Mali, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia and Morocco. I should have stayed in Spain but I needed to try for the UK. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Kevin said he came from a beautiful country, though from a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2020/09/25/they-let-people-kill-each-other/violence-nzerekore-during-guineas-constitutional">persecuted ethnic group</a>; he is from the Guerzé tribe. He told me he “had to eat stale bread and cheap jam and live in a mud bath in the north of France while France was exploiting natural resources in his country”. And yet because his country is not at war, despite the most recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/least-two-killed-guinea-anti-junta-protests-eve-coup-anniversary-2023-09-05/">military coups</a>, it was difficult for him to make a case for political asylum in France.</p>
<p>When I first spoke to him, Kevin and his “crew” had just survived another eviction. They had managed to hide their belongings along the railway tracks within the Sudanese camp. Kevin remembers suffering from the effects of “tear gas that had been launched inside the tent” a few weeks earlier. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I was asleep when they sprayed tear gas inside the tent and my lungs burnt for hours afterwards. I could not use the covers I had because of the smell. This smell is impossible to get rid off so I had to find another blanket.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The mayor’s policy since 2008 is <a href="https://www.revolutionpermanente.fr/Calais-la-mairie-depose-des-rochers-sur-les-quais-pour-empecher-les-refugies-de-s-installer">ruthless and relentless</a>: evacuated every two days and chased from any public spaces, the refugees are mentally and physically exhausted.</p>
<p>“We try crossing by trucks or by boats every night so during the day we sleep but the police usually come and force you out of your tent. You have to be quick and get all your papers with you otherwise everything is destroyed. It is scary”, said Kevin. </p>
<p>Mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, refugees in Calais often don’t have the financial means to pay for a crossing with the Kurdish mafia and thus access the Calais network of smugglers who are mostly Sudanese and North-African and who are less organised and less reliable because they use cheaper, poor quality boats and motors. Kevin told me:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This network is a lot less safe than the Kurdish one and if you fail the crossing they often keep your money.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Kevin negotiated his passage from €1,200 to €800 with Kurdish smugglers. It took him four months to make the money he needed because he told me: “I could not work as recruiter for them because all my friends are poor, they could not pay the crossing, so I had to do small jobs to save that money.” Kevin finally crossed in August 2023 with a convoy of people which left from the beach called Graveline. They had to wait for four days before setting off.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The weather was horrendous, the wind was very strong and another boat capsized under my eyes. I am still scarred from the crossing, the sea was so dangerous, I don’t think I will ever go back on a boat in my life. Everyone was shouting and crying especially the women and the children who were terrified because of the waves. Somebody wanted to jump and we had to stop him and someone else fell in the water, we just had time to catch him and drag him back on the boat. I stayed at the front of the boat with my friend and a lot of us wanted to go back, we were terrified. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Brutal evacuations</h2>
<p>Every evacuation is brutal and dehumanises the refugees a little more. Apparently, the process of dehumanisation justifies <a href="https://basta.media/controle-aux-frontieres-migrants-exiles-Calais-Briancon-couts-de-la-repression-bunkerisation-militarisation-Darmanin">the costly</a> daily harassment of refugees that was heavily criticised by the <a href="https://www.defenseurdesdroits.fr/sites/default/files/2023-10/ddd_rapport_droits-fondamentaux-etrangers_3ans-apres-calais_synthese_20181207.pdf">UN Special Rapporters in 2018</a>.</p>
<p>When I was in Loon Plage, the camp had not been evacuated for a month. One morning, I witnessed the camp evacuating itself because people could not stand the anticipation of the police forces coming to dismantle the camp. I arrived at 7am only to see a long line of people pushing supermarket trolleys full of their belongings to another part of the industrial zone along the canal.</p>
<p>They had internalised the process so much that it was just easier to “self-evacuate” instead of living with the anxiety of the police arriving in the early hours of the morning. When I asked one refugee why he was moving everything he said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I cannot stand it anymore. I am too tired, every morning I think they are going to come and they don’t come. I am moving so I can sleep better.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The evacuations are performative in the sense they fulfil the role the French government plays in order to justify the sums of money being <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/11/europe/uk-france-illegal-immigration-funding-intl-hnk/index.html">paid by the UK government</a> to secure the border – despite the fact most refugees come back to the exact same settlements after the evacuation and will cross eventually.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/12/20/what-s-in-france-s-controversial-immigration-law_6361995_7.html">new anti-immigration law</a> passed by the French parliament on December 19 2023 will do little to ease the climate of suspicion and fear which surrounds the refugee debate in both the UK and France. </p>
<p>But nobody I spoke to would be deterred; not by the brutal camp evacuations; the fear of smuggling gangs, the terror of the crossings, or even the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rwanda-asylum-deportation-plan-faces-more-delays-how-did-we-get-here-226209">promise of a flight to Rwanda</a> once landing in the UK. If anything, the violence and lack of hospitality at the French border which represent unprecedented breaches
of fundamental rights of refugees further motivates people to cross. As DM Boss told me: “I could not live in the jungle any longer, I was determined to come to the UK. I had to try.”</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/gp-crisis-how-did-things-go-so-wrong-and-what-needs-to-change-208197?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">GP crisis: how did things go so wrong, and what needs to change?</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/would-better-buildings-help-fix-the-nhs-the-story-of-britains-hospitals-from-grand-designs-to-counting-the-costs-208090?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Would better buildings help fix the NHS? The story of Britain’s hospitals, from grand designs to counting the costs</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/its-like-being-in-a-warzone-aande-nurses-open-up-about-the-emotional-cost-of-working-on-the-nhs-frontline-194197?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">‘It’s like being in a warzone’ – A&E nurses open up about the emotional cost of working on the NHS frontline</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/insomnia-how-chronic-sleep-problems-can-lead-to-a-spiralling-decline-in-mental-health-224131?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insomnia: how chronic sleep problems can lead to a spiralling decline in mental health
</a></em></p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Watt receives funding from the BA Leverhulme Small Grants and HEIF from the University fo Sheffield.</span></em></p>Despite the relentless hardships and suffering, one thing appeared to unite the refugees I met: they wanted to seek sanctuary in the UK, no matter what.Sophie Watt, Lecturer, School of Languages and Cultures, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259302024-03-18T13:44:32Z2024-03-18T13:44:32ZGlastonbury’s first K-pop group is a reflection of years of Korean government strategy<p>The 13-member K-pop boy band SEVENTEEN will make history this year as they become the first Korean group on the Glastonbury music festival lineup. While top Korean groups such as <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/bst-hyde-park-2023-when-will-blackpink-perform-on-stage-date-time-tickets/articleshow/101417692.cms?from=mdr">Blackpink</a> and <a href="https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190602000198">BTS</a> have performed in the UK before, this will be the first time the K-pop genre has featured at the world famous festival, which is held on Worthy Farm in Somerset. </p>
<p>The booking marks a major milestone in the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/South-Korean-Popular-Culture-in-the-Global-Context-Beyond-the-Fandom/Lim/p/book/9781032233710">decades-long ambition</a> of Korean creative industries to find success in the global entertainment market.</p>
<p>K-pop has reached new international heights over the past decade. Girl group Blackpink broke new ground this year when they joined <a href="https://www.nme.com/news/music/blackpink-join-spotify-billions-club-how-you-like-that-3600941">Spotify’s “Billions Club”</a> with their 2020 single How You Like That (2020), marking over one billion streams. The most famous K-pop band, BTS, are also “Billions Club” members, thanks to their songs Dynamite (2020) and Butter (2022).</p>
<p>The global success of K-Pop is the result of a clever cultural marketing strategy <a href="https://www-tandfonline-com.sheffield.idm.oclc.org/doi/full/10.1080/10286632.2018.1557646">deployed by the Korean government</a> in collaboration with the creative industries. This strategy has dovetailed with advances in the ease of access to cultural content via streaming services and social media, resulting in a <a href="https://www.investkorea.org/ik-en/cntnts/i-326/web.do">global fan base</a> in the hundreds of millions. </p>
<h2>The history of K-pop’s success</h2>
<p>It all began with the Korean government’s recognition of the <a href="https://www-tandfonline-com.sheffield.idm.oclc.org/doi/full/10.1080/10286632.2013.829052">economic potential</a> of creative content in the 1990s. South Korea was looking for ways to recover from the ravages of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. </p>
<p>Even as International Monetary Fund-imposed deregulation and liberalisation of the economy was rolled out in the 2000s, <a href="https://www-tandfonline-com.sheffield.idm.oclc.org/doi/full/10.1080/10286632.2018.1429422">the government supported</a> the film, television and music industries by maintaining a firm hand in the sector’s growth and export development. This included financial incentives for production companies and infrastructure development such as investment in high speed internet access across the country to support content production and consumption. </p>
<p>The strategy worked. The popularity of a steady stream of Korean television dramas <a href="https://martinroll.com/resources/articles/asia/korean-wave-hallyu-the-rise-of-koreas-cultural-economy-pop-culture/">began to grow in Japan and China</a>. The Korean government then invested further in infrastructure to grow the industry and take Korean content beyond the region. Today, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/60-netflix-users-watched-korean-title-streaming-service-ceo-says-rcna91180">60% of all Netflix subscribers</a> have watched Korean content on the platform.</p>
<p>The success of Korean popular culture is felt across <a href="https://keia.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/KEI_Koreas-Economy_2021_211019_Parc_2.pdf">other areas of the economy too</a>. K-pop and screen stars have struck brand deals with Korean companies, advertising items such as cosmetics, washing machines and smart phones to global audiences.</p>
<p>Korea’s cultural content market is now one of the <a href="https://www.investkorea.org/ik-en/bbs/i-308/detail.do?ntt_sn=490776">largest in the world</a> at around US$80 billion (£63 billion) in 2024, not far behind France and the UK. Its continuing growth is backed by a <a href="https://www.investkorea.org/ik-en/cntnts/i-326/web.do">multi-pronged policy</a> of financial investment, tax breaks and institutional support both in-country and via Korean culture centres in overseas cities. The government also provides financial incentives for cooperation between production companies and conglomerates such as LG and Samsung, which benefit from the success of Korean popular culture abroad.</p>
<p>The success of popular culture also lends itself to Korea’s public diplomacy. A concerted nation branding strategy implemented in the late 2000s and 2010s by the administration of <a href="https://www.ft.com/stream/100823f6-f80c-3991-9974-f56583650114">Lee Myung-Bak</a> administration aimed to push South Korea up the various nation branding indexes. Lee acknowledged the role that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357823.2018.1509299">soft power could play</a> in securing Korea’s position as a state with moderate global influence. </p>
<p>Since that time, K-Pop stars have come to play a role in Korea’s public diplomacy at forums <a href="https://theconversation.com/bts-take-a-break-worlds-biggest-k-pop-group-is-caught-between-koreas-soft-power-ambitions-and-national-security-185433">including the UN</a> and <a href="https://www.britishcouncil.org/climate-connection/be-inspired/blackpink-climate-action-cop26">COP26</a>.</p>
<h2>No ordinary K-Pop band?</h2>
<p>This is not to say that SEVENTEEN are mere cogs in a larger machine of Korean cultural content production and export. Unlike many other pop groups in their peer group, the members produce <a href="https://time.com/5868040/seventeen-k-pop-everything-to-know/">much of their own work</a>, writing songs and raps and choreographing dance routines.</p>
<p>Unusually, SEVENTEEN is <a href="https://time.com/5868040/seventeen-k-pop-everything-to-know/">made up of a number of sub-groups</a>. At times, these sub-groups record separately in order to showcase their respective skills across rap, dance and singing. As is typical of Korean cultural content, the band aims to create multiple moments of connection with audiences. </p>
<p>One example is the band’s reality TV series, <a href="https://time.com/5868040/seventeen-k-pop-everything-to-know/">Going SEVENTEEN</a>, which is a mixture of games, challenges and behind the scenes clips, released weekly on YouTube and V Live, a Korean live streaming app for celebrity content.</p>
<p>As is also common in K-Pop bands, SEVENTEEN’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66541773">membership</a> is made up of people from different countries including China and the US. This helps them <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.sheffield.idm.oclc.org/science/article/pii/S1568484922000314">connect with foreign fans</a> and ensures there is always a member able to handle international media appearances in languages other than Korean.</p>
<p>UK-based fans will be thrilled their idols are making an appearance at Glastonbury, hopefully paving the way for more K-pop at international festivals in the future. It also perhaps shows that the festival industry is responding to the increasingly global music tastes of festival-goers, bringing new acts and genres onto their stages. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/something-good-156">Sign up here</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah A. Son does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>SEVENTEEN’s performance will mark a major milestone in Korea’s decade’s long strategy to take Korean popular culture to the world.Sarah A. Son, Senior Lecturer in Korean Studies, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253822024-03-15T17:34:38Z2024-03-15T17:34:38ZElon Musk’s brain implant company offers an intriguing glimpse of an internet connecting human minds<p>Elon Musk’s <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/3/27/15077864/elon-musk-neuralink-brain-computer-interface-ai-cyborgs">company called Neuralink</a>, launched in 2016, aims to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-elon-musk-neuralink-20170421-htmlstory.html">implant a piece of technology</a> in people’s brains that would allow them to control a computer or phone by thought alone. This is otherwise known as a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3497935/">brain-computer interface</a>. </p>
<p>After years of <a href="https://theconversation.com/neuralink-put-a-chip-in-gertrude-the-pigs-brain-it-might-be-useful-one-day-145383">experimenting on animals</a>, Neuralink recently announced the implantation of one of their devices in the brain of a person.</p>
<p>Yet “neurotechnology”, of which this is a form, holds the promise of alleviating human suffering and allowing <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06377-x">people with disabilities to regain lost capacities</a>.</p>
<p>And it raises further questions. Would people without disabilities also embrace technology that directly connects with their brains and nervous systems? What would happen in future if people were able to link themselves to devices, infrastructure and even other people’s brains in a kind of brain-computer internet?</p>
<p>It’s now time to begin to think about those questions. Medical conditions such as <a href="https://www.ninds.nih.gov/health-information/disorders/locked-syndrome">locked-in syndrome</a> prevent people from communicating or moving their limbs. Neuralink’s device is initially aimed at restoring capacities to people with such conditions by controlling a computer cursor to communicate, or using a robotic arm to feed themselves. </p>
<p>However, the longer term aspirations of the company, as expressed by Musk, include the capacity to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/08/28/elon-musk-wants-to-put-a-fitbit-in-your-skull-to-summon-your-tesla/?sh=f71cac7586a9">summon a self-driving vehicle by thought alone</a>. These aspirations suggest that neurotechnology might connect people to a wide variety of technological systems currently in everyday use.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-brain-is-the-most-complicated-object-in-the-universe-this-is-the-story-of-scientists-quest-to-decode-it-and-read-peoples-minds-222458">The brain is the most complicated object in the universe. This is the story of scientists' quest to decode it – and read people's minds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are brain-computer interfaces?</h2>
<p>Brain-computer interfaces (BCI) detect the electrical activity in the brain connected to a person’s intentions. For example, if a person wants a cursor to move to the right, they might imagine waving their hand. This brain activity is decoded and converted into a command for a cursor. </p>
<p>This approach can work with a robotic arm, the lights in a smart home, a video game, or <a href="https://www.usf.edu/news/2018/mind-machine-students-to-compete-usf-first-ever-brain-drone-race.aspx">even a drone or robot</a>. A BCI can be thought of as a “universal controller”, or as the eminent neuroscientist Professor Rafael Yuste has described it, <a href="https://courier.unesco.org/en/articles/rafael-yuste-lets-act-its-too-late">an iPhone for the brain</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Elon Musk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581735/original/file-20240313-22-mv5ska.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581735/original/file-20240313-22-mv5ska.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581735/original/file-20240313-22-mv5ska.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581735/original/file-20240313-22-mv5ska.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581735/original/file-20240313-22-mv5ska.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581735/original/file-20240313-22-mv5ska.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581735/original/file-20240313-22-mv5ska.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elon Musk believes BCIs could be used to control self-driving vehicles by thought alone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paris-france-june-16-2023-elon-2318800285">Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Neurotechnology can be invasively implanted in the brain or nervous system, or come in the form of wearable technology, such as a headset or earbuds. Air traffic controllers with external headsets can have their brains monitored to alert them when their attention levels are dropping. </p>
<p>Children in <a href="https://archive-yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/mind-control-chinas-classrooms">Chinese high schools</a> have already had their brains monitored by teachers. The company <a href="https://www.brainwavescience.com/">Brainwave Science</a> even offers a product to security services and police that can monitor suspects’ brains during interrogations.</p>
<p>However, things might go even further, as forms of direct <a href="https://theconversation.com/brain-to-brain-interfaces-the-science-of-telepathy-37926">brain to brain communication</a> are being tested. Instead of calling your friend or texting them, you might one day communicate telepathically. Rudimentary forms of direct brain to brain communication between humans (and even between humans and various animals) have already been achieved.</p>
<h2>Military uses</h2>
<p>Various militaries are also interested in the potential of “super soldiers” enhanced with neurotechnology, as they could operate more effectively in challenging environments, such as urban settings.</p>
<p>This would incorporate weapon systems, sensing and monitoring the human brains of military personnel in a distributed system of battlefield control. A particularly striking example of this approach comes in the form of the <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/news/tech-design/mind-control-robots-reality">thought-controlled robotic dogs</a> that have recently been demonstrated by the Australian Army.</p>
<p>This brings to mind the fictional <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borg">Borg civilisation</a> from Star Trek, who are a similar mix of biology and machine parts. The alien Borg are individuals connected by neurotechnology that operate together as an entity. The implications of an interconnected system of humans and machines enabled by neurotechnology is something we should start to think about, along with what values <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290974852_We_Are_the_Borg_Human_Assimilation_into_Cellular_Society">that society might have</a>.</p>
<p>We can envisage all kinds of scenarios. In future, it’s possible that those who operate critical infrastructure in cities could have their brains monitored to prevent accidents. People with mobility issues might increasingly interact with devices in their home, turning lights on and off and controlling domestic robots via their brain-computer interfaces. </p>
<h2>Wider take-up?</h2>
<p>At some point, people without disabilities could also decide to dispense with handheld remote control appliances in favour of controlling devices with their brains. Prisoners and offenders in the community could be monitored in real-time to assess their <a href="https://lsj.com.au/articles/a-clockwork-orange-again/">mental states</a>.</p>
<p>In time, these separate applications might start to make connections with each other in service of enhanced efficiency, commercial expediency, and social control. Neurotech could emerge as an essential infrastructure that becomes the key interface of human relationships with technological systems.</p>
<p>What emerges from all of this? There has some been some thinking and action in relation to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cambridge-quarterly-of-healthcare-ethics/article/minding-rights-mapping-ethical-and-legal-foundations-of-neurorights/2F3BD282956047E1E67AA9049A2A0B68">the human rights</a> and broader <a href="https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/topics/research/how-will-brain-monitoring-technology-influence-the-practice-of-law">legal implications of neurotechnology</a>. But much of the debate is rather individualistic in orientation and neglects the wider societal implications of changing human relationships with technological systems. </p>
<p>Consequently, we need a discussion about the larger purpose of neurotechnology, its use and implications. This needs input from a variety of groups, such as infrastructure specialists, designers, architects, human computer interaction specialists and community groups.</p>
<p>Neurotechnology is likely to have diverse impacts across society: in the home, the workplace, the criminal justice system and networks of infrastructure.</p>
<p>Teasing out the emerging issues across these different sectors should enable us to anticipate the harms and benefits of neurotechnology. This will allow us to shape its development to support humans and the environment. </p>
<p>To paraphrase the Borg: resistance may not be futile after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allan McCay is a member of Standards Australia's Brain-computer interface committee.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Marvin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Could the technology move beyond medical applications and into wide use?Simon Marvin, Director, Urban Institute, University of SheffieldAllan McCay, Academic Fellow, University of Sydney Law School, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257032024-03-14T11:08:01Z2024-03-14T11:08:01ZHow conspiracy theories help to maintain Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia<p>As Russians head to the polls on March 15 for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-can-we-expect-from-six-more-years-of-vladimir-putin-an-increasingly-weak-and-dysfunctional-russia-224259">presidential election</a>, conspiracy theories are swirling everywhere. In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly podcast</a>, we speak to a disinformation expert about the central role these theories play in Vladimir Putin’s Russia.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/65f2bd789be413001781419f" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p></p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>As soon as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/navalny-dies-in-prison-but-his-blueprint-for-anti-putin-activism-will-live-on-223774">death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny</a> in a Siberian penal colony was announced in February, conspiracy theories about who was behind it <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPn2zQWOU70">began circulating in Russia</a>.</p>
<p>“That he was killed by his puppet masters from the west, not the Kremlin. That he was killed by them because his murder would actually make Putin look awful in the eyes of global community,” explains Ilya Yablokov, a lecturer in digital journalism and disinformation at the University of Sheffield in the UK.</p>
<p>Yablokov studies the <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Fortress+Russia%3A+Conspiracy+Theories+in+the+Post+Soviet+World-p-9781509522651">spread of conspiracy theories in post-Soviet Russia</a>, and says the stories about Navalny are the most prominent of many circulating ahead of a presidential election that looks certain to keep Putin in the Kremlin until at least 2030. </p>
<p>Yablokov tells The Conversation Weekly that Russia’s conspiracy culture has become a key tool for Putin’s regime: “Conspiracy theories are one of the few ways of keeping the society together and to prevent the change of the regime.” </p>
<p>Fear of anti-Russian conspiracy now informs many pieces of domestic legislation, such as the 2022 changes to the <a href="https://cpj.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Guide-to-Understanding-the-Laws-Relating-to-Fake-News-in-Russia.pdf">criminal code</a> that were aimed at censoring criticism of the Russian military, and in particular its actions in Ukraine. Yablokov adds:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Every possible activity that can shake up the regime and question its actions is forbidden on the grounds of an existing conspiracy against Russia and its regime.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Conspiracy theories used to exist on the margins of Russian culture. Putin typically avoided mentioning them too much, except at key political moments such as elections or Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. But now, and in particular since the Ukraine war, they have moved to the centre of political debate. </p>
<p>Listen to <a href="https://pod.link/1550643487">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast to hear Ilya Yablokov talk about Putin’s changing relationship with conspiracy theories, plus an introduction from Grégory Rayko, international editor at The Conversation in France. </p>
<p><em>A transcript of this episode will be available shortly.</em></p>
<p><em>This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Gemma Ware and Katie Flood, with assistance from Mend Mariwany. Sound design was by Eloise Stevens, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. Stephen Khan is our global executive editor, Alice Mason runs our social media and Soraya Nandy does our transcripts.</em></p>
<p><em>Newsclips in this episode were from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPn2zQWOU70">Russia Media Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgydMTmhs50">BBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJGDsOswFc">Guardian News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nYAM-Jbfh4">NBC</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAvMgUf8nyo">News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdKDrIR8ASY&t=88s">CBS Mornings</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tim9AodGLhU">Channel 4 News</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>You can find us on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free daily email here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225703/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilya Yablokov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Russian disinformation expert Ilya Yablokov tells The Conversation Weekly podcast about the president’s shifting relationship with conspiracy theories.Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251452024-03-08T13:35:18Z2024-03-08T13:35:18ZDune: what the climate of Arrakis can tell us about the hunt for habitable exoplanets<p>Frank Herbert’s Dune is epic sci-fi storytelling with an environmental message at its heart. The novels and movies are set on the desert planet of Arrakis, which various characters dream of transforming into a greener world – much like some envision for Mars today. </p>
<p>We investigated Arrakis using a <a href="https://theconversation.com/dune-we-simulated-the-desert-planet-of-arrakis-to-see-if-humans-could-survive-there-170181">climate model</a>, a computer program similar to those used to give weather forecasts. We found the world that Herbert had created, well before climate models even existed, was remarkably accurate – and would be habitable, if not hospitable.</p>
<p>However, Arrakis wasn’t always a desert. In Dune lore, 91% of the planet was once covered by oceans, until some ancient catastrophe led to its desertification. What water remained was further removed by sand trout, an invasive species brought to Arrakis. These proliferated and carried liquid into cavities deep underground, leading to the planet becoming more and more arid.</p>
<p>To see what a large ocean would mean for the planet’s climate and habitability, we have now used the same climate model – putting in an ocean while changing no other factors. </p>
<p>When most of Arrakis is flooded, we calculate that the global average temperature would be reduced by 4°C. This is mostly because oceans add moisture to the atmosphere, which leads to more snow and certain types of cloud, both of which reflect the sun’s energy back into space. But it’s also because oceans on Earth and (we assume) on Arrakis emit “halogens” that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06119-z">cool the planet</a> by depleting ozone, a potent greenhouse gas which Arrakis would have significantly more of than Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Arrakis" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580451/original/file-20240307-18-5829gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The authors gathered information from the books and the Dune Encyclopedia to build their original model. Then they added an ocean with 1,000 metres average depth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Farnsworth et al</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the ocean world is a whopping 86 times wetter, as so much water evaporates from the oceans. This means plants can grow as water is no longer a finite resource, as it is on desert Arrakis.</p>
<h2>A wetter world would be more stable</h2>
<p>Oceans also reduce temperature extremes, as water heats and cools more slowly than land. (This is one reason Britain, surrounded by oceans, has relatively mild winters and summers, while places far inland tend to be <a href="https://weatherspy.net/?city=London&city=Winnipeg&metric=1">hotter in summer and very cold in winter</a>). The climate of an ocean planet is therefore more stable than a desert world. </p>
<p>In desert Arrakis, temperatures would reach 70°C or more, while in its ocean state, we put the highest recorded temperatures at about 45°C. That means the ocean Arrakis would be liveable even in summer. Forests and arable crops could grow outside of the (still cold and snowy) poles. </p>
<p>There is one downside, however. Tropical regions would be buffeted by large cyclones since the huge, warm oceans would contain lots of the energy and moisture required to drive hurricanes.</p>
<h2>The search for habitable planets</h2>
<p>All this isn’t an entirely abstract exercise, as scientists searching for habitable “exoplanets” in distant galaxies are looking for these sorts of things too. At the moment, we can only detect such planets using huge telescopes in space to search for those that are similar to Earth in size, temperature, available energy, ability to host water, and other factors. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scatter chart of planets comparing habitability and similarity to Earth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580454/original/file-20240307-28-l1ov3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Both desert and ocean Arrakis are considerably more habitable than any other planet we have discovered.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Farnsworth et al</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We know that desert worlds are probably more common than Earth-like planets in the universe. Planets with potentially life-sustaining oceans will usually be found in the so-called “Goldilocks zone”: far enough from the Sun to avoid being too hot (so further away than boiling hot Venus), but close enough to avoid everything being frozen (so nearer than Jupiter’s icy moon Ganymede). </p>
<p>Research has found this habitable zone is particularly <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2010.0545">small for planets with large oceans</a>. Their water is at risk of either completely freezing, therefore making the planet even colder, or of evaporating as part of a runaway greenhouse effect in which a layer of water vapour prevents heat from escaping and the planet gets hotter and hotter. </p>
<p>The habitable zone is therefore much larger for desert planets, since at the outer edge they will have less snow and ice cover and will absorb more of their sun’s heat, while at the inner edge there is less water vapour and so less risk of a runaway greenhouse effect.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that, though distance from their local star can give a general average temperature for a planet, such an average can be misleading. For instance, both desert and ocean Arrakis have a habitable average temperature, but the day-to-day temperature extremes on the ocean planet are much more hospitable. </p>
<p>Currently, even the most powerful telescopes cannot sense temperatures at this detail. They also cannot see in detail how the continents are arranged on distant planets. This again could mean the averages are misleading. For instance, while the ocean Arrakis we modelled would be very habitable, most of the land is in the polar regions which are under snow year-round – so the actual amount of inhabitable land is much less. </p>
<p>Such considerations could be important in our own far-future, when the Earth is projected to form a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01259-3">supercontinent centred on the equator</a>. That continent would make the planet far too hot for mammals and other life to survive, potentially leading to mass extinction.</p>
<p>If the most likely liveable planets in the universe are deserts, they may well be very extreme environments that require significant technological solutions and resources to enable life – desert worlds will probably not have an oxygen-rich atmosphere, for instance.</p>
<p>But that won’t stop humans from trying. For instance, Elon Musk and SpaceX have grand ambitions to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship-mars.html">create a colony</a> on our closest desert world, Mars. But the many challenges they will face only emphasises how important our own Earth is as the cradle of civilisation – especially as ocean-rich worlds may not be as plentiful as we’d hope. If humans eventually colonise other worlds, they’re likely to have to deal with many of the same problems as the characters in Dune.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225145/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Farnsworth works for the University of Bristol and receives funding from NERC and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Steinig works for the University of Bristol and receives funding from NERC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate scientists have simulated Arrakis as a desert and with its long-lost oceans.Alex Farnsworth, Senior Research Associate in Meteorology, University of BristolMichael Farnsworth, Research Lead Future Electrical Machines Manufacturing Hub, University of SheffieldSebastian Steinig, Research Associate in Paleoclimate Modelling, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251942024-03-06T17:01:05Z2024-03-06T17:01:05ZBudget 2024: experts explain what it means for taxpayers, businesses, borrowers and the NHS<p><em>The spring budget of 2024 was widely seen as a chance for UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt to inject some economic optimism into British politics ahead of a general election. Would he or wouldn’t he cut income tax? (He wouldn’t.) Would he pull rabbits out of hats in a bid to convince the electorate that the Conservatives should stay in power? Here’s what our panel of experts made of his plans:</em></p>
<h2>National insurance cut only partially offsets rising tax burden</h2>
<p><strong>Jonquil Lowe, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Personal Finance, The Open University</strong></p>
<p>The big attention-grabber in the budget was a two percentage point cut in national insurance contributions for employees and the self-employed from April. It comes hard on the heels of a similar cut in January this year. </p>
<p>The government also announced a long-term, but undated, ambition to abolish national insurance altogether. However, the national insurance cut (which will cost the government <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e8578eb559930011ade2cb/E03057752_HMT_Spring_Budget_Mar_24_Web_Accessible__2_.pdf">£10.1 billion</a> in the coming year) only partially offsets the impact of the ongoing freeze in the income tax personal allowance and higher rate band until April 2028. </p>
<p>Normally these levels would rise each year with inflation. But the freeze causes what’s known as “fiscal drag”, meaning that as your earnings rise, you get drawn into higher tax bands. The higher your top rate of tax (your marginal rate), the less you get to keep of every extra pound you earn. </p>
<p>This amounts to a substantial rise in income tax, estimated to rake in an extra £35 billion a year for the government <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9687/#:%7E:text=Freezing%20tax%20thresholds%20increases%20people's,tax%20at%20a%20higher%20rate">by 2028-29</a>.</p>
<p><strong>How the national insurance cut might affect you:</strong></p>
<p>Separately, there was good news for better-off parents, with a raising, from April 2024, of the income threshold at which the government starts to claw back the amount the family gets in child benefit. The threshold will rise to £60,000 (from £50,000) and the rate at which the benefit is withdrawn will also be reduced. </p>
<p>The tax charge currently kicks in when the highest earner in the household reaches the threshold, which inherently favours couples. For example, two parents could each earn just under £60,000 (joint earnings of nearly £120,000) and keep their full child benefit. But a single person on £60,000 would start to lose theirs. </p>
<p>The government has said it will look to end this unfairness by asking HMRC to come up with a method of basing the tax charge on household income from 2026. </p>
<p>But this should sound alarm bells. Those with long memories will remember that until 1990, the UK jointly taxed married couples. The introduction of <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/1990-07-11/debates/6f8f9eac-354f-4a86-bc5e-bcb3b4e0a066/IndependentTaxation#:%7E:text=Independent%20taxation%2C%20which%20took%20effect%20on%206%20April,set%20against%20her%20own%20income%20of%20any%20kind.">independent taxation</a> was important in giving women independence and privacy in their financial affairs. </p>
<p>But as always with an election year budget, any commitments for the future depend on the outcome of that election. This time next year these matters may not be in Jeremy Hunt’s hands at all. </p>
<h2>Why the cuts to national insurance are a damp squib</h2>
<p><strong>Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, Vice Dean and Associate Professor in Economics, University of East London</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/#:%7E:text=But%20we%20expect%20output%20growth,1%E2%85%94%20per%20cent%20by%202028.">OBR expects</a> the economy to grow by 0.8% this year and 1.9% next year – that is, 0.5% higher than its <a href="https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2023/">autumn forecast</a>. Growth is then forecast to continue this trend until 2027.</p>
<p>The OBR has also forecast that inflation will go back to a 2% target level within the next few months. This means that the key Conservative priorities of tackling inflation and growing the economy are going to be met in 2024.</p>
<p>The chancellor also announced that he has been able to keep to his “fiscal rules” of national debt as a proportion of GDP falling in the next five years, and government borrowing not exceeding 3% of GDP. This will probably reassure the markets that the UK public finances are steady.</p>
<p>The chancellor went into the budget with “<a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2024-what-to-expect-from-jeremy-hunts-pre-election-tax-giveaway-224294">fiscal headroom</a>” of approximately £13 billion for pre-election giveaways (though you always want to leave some in reserve for emergency), but he increased this by announcing the reforms to the non-dom tax status. This enabled him to cut employees’ national insurance (NI) by another 2p in the pound, at a cost of £10 billion and benefiting the average worker by £450 a year.</p>
<p>When combined with the NI cut last autumn, the government can now claim to have delivered a £900 annual tax cut to the average worker. Lowering NI might also encourage people to re-enter the workforce or work more, which could boost companies in sectors that have been struggling to attract talent, such as <a href="https://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/content/news/businesses-face-record-recruitment-difficulties/#:%7E:text=Firms%20in%20the%20hospitality%20sector,health%20sector%20all%20on%2083%.">hospitality and manufacturing</a>. However, it might not have a massive impact, given that income tax thresholds remain frozen, meaning more and more workers pay extra tax each year as their wages rise with inflation.</p>
<h2>A few bonuses for a few businesses</h2>
<p><strong>Hilary Ingham, Professor of Economics, Lancaster University</strong></p>
<p>For all of the expectations around this being the last chance for the government to <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2024-what-to-expect-from-jeremy-hunts-pre-election-tax-giveaway-224294">make its economic case</a> in the year of a general election, this was a rather underwhelming budget. </p>
<p>The main event – a drop in national insurance – was <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-cut-national-insurance-income-tax-inheritance-stamp-duty-k9tx63rfq">leaked in advance</a>. And aside from that, there was little to get very excited about. Measures directed at UK businesses were rather limited, targeting specific industries and firms of a particular size. </p>
<p>One measure that will be welcomed by owners of small businesses was the VAT threshold being increased from £85,000 to £90,000, meaning that some small firms will be exempt from this tax. But the rise, a mere £5,000, is small. </p>
<p>There was also good news for the hospitality industry, with the freeze on alcohol duty – which had been due to expire – being extended until February 2025. And the <a href="https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/covid-19s-impact-arts-culture-and-heritage-sector-revealed-landmark-report">pandemic</a> tax relief given to the performing arts industry was made permanent.</p>
<p>Less pleased will be those whose businesses involve letting out holiday properties. The favourable regime they faced, which has been <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/travel/uk-ireland/budget-announcement-government-comes-after-32285856">widely blamed</a> for housing shortages in popular areas such as Cornwall and the Lake District, will be abolished.</p>
<p>But perhaps the measure which will have the widest impact for business is that the 5p cut in fuel duty will be maintained, with the duty frozen for a further 12 months. This will be welcomed given the fuel costs that business and households have faced over the last 18 months.</p>
<p>Overall though, for British companies struggling in this harsh economic climate, the news from Jeremy Hunt was rather muted. Tomorrow will be a return to business as usual.</p>
<h2>Good vaping measures – shame about the delay</h2>
<p><strong>Rob Branston, Senior Lecturer in Business Economics, University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>The new levy on vapes is a win-win-win for society. It is unfortunate that it isn’t due to happen for more than two years, though, as the new measures will only come into force on October 1 2026.</p>
<p>When they arrive, it will lead to higher prices in the shops, which will definitely help to deter the use of these products, particularly for children and young adults, who are amongst the most price sensitive. Action in this area is most welcome as vaping has been <a href="https://ash.org.uk/uploads/Use-of-vapes-among-young-people-GB-2023-v2.pdf?v=1697209531">increasing greatly</a> in recent years, notably among those who have never smoked, which is worrying as these products are <a href="https://www.lung.org/quit-smoking/e-cigarettes-vaping/impact-of-e-cigarettes-on-lung#:%7E:text=E-cigarettes%20produce%20a%20number,as%20cardiovascular%20(heart)%20disease.&text=E-cigarettes%20also%20contain%20acrolein,primarily%20used%20to%20kill%20weeds.">not risk free</a>.</p>
<p>The new tax and associated price increases are probably large enough to make a meaningful difference. A 10ml vaping refill currently costing £2.50 <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e80ba108eef600115a5621/Vaping_Products_Duty_Consultation.pdf">is predicted</a> to increase in cost to £3.70 if nicotine free, and up to £6.10 for the higher nicotine strengths.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Vapes in a shopping trolley surrounded by smoke." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580203/original/file-20240306-26-2rvdcj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580203/original/file-20240306-26-2rvdcj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580203/original/file-20240306-26-2rvdcj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580203/original/file-20240306-26-2rvdcj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580203/original/file-20240306-26-2rvdcj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580203/original/file-20240306-26-2rvdcj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580203/original/file-20240306-26-2rvdcj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the right direction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/disposable-vapes-shopping-cart-on-black-2060552477">Reshetnikov_art/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These higher prices will be a stronger deterrent if accompanied by restrictions on packaging, flavours, display and availability. The government is <a href="https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2024/01/30/creating-a-smokefree-generation-and-tackling-youth-vaping-what-you-need-to-know/">planning such restrictions</a> as part of the forthcoming tobacco and vapes Bill. This will create a broad and welcome package of measures, assuming it goes ahead.</p>
<p>One further win is that the levy will bring vapes within the government excise tax system. This should mean more oversight of retailers and manufacturers, which will hopefully make it easier to identify and take action against products that don’t comply with the rules.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-stop-teenagers-vaping-they-need-to-see-it-as-cringe-not-cool-222946">To stop teenagers vaping they need to see it as cringe, not cool</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>I also welcome the chancellor’s one-off increase in tobacco taxation, which is predicted to increase the cost of a packet of cigarettes by about £0.89. This is a crucial part of the package, since it will help to ensure that e-cigarettes remain a cheaper and less harmful alternative source of nicotine.</p>
<p>The two tax measures together are forecast to increase government tax revenues by £615 million a year by 2028-29, so they will help the government finances at the same time. </p>
<h2>Not enough to alleviate fuel poverty</h2>
<p><strong>Andrew Burlinson, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sheffield</strong></p>
<p>The recent energy-price crisis caused “<a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2022/sep/marmot-review-thousands-will-die-and-millions-will-suffer-humanitarian-crisis-fuel-poverty">epidemic levels</a>” of hardship in the UK, leading the UK to <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/42584/documents/211695/default/">spend £40 billion</a> in energy price support. However, such consumer price support did not target those in most need or protect households from future energy price shocks.</p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65ccecba1d939500129466a9/annual-fuel-poverty-statistics-report-2024.pdf">Just under</a> 40% of households (9 million) spend more than 10% of their residual income on energy, after deducting housing costs. Despite prices falling, typical consumers <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9491/CBP-9491.pdf">still pay</a> around 60% more than pre-pandemic levels.</p>
<p>The chancellor’s main move to help this situation is to confirm another extension to the £842 million <a href="https://www.gov.uk/cost-living-help-local-council#:%7E:text=You%20may%20be%20able%20to,energy%20and%20water%20bills">household support fund</a>, which is used at the discretion of local councils to help households struggling with the cost of living. While this fund is potentially more targeted than the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-price-cap">price cap</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/get-help-energy-bills#:%7E:text=You%20may%20be%20able%20to,Fund%20from%20your%20local%20council">energy bill support payments</a>, the fact that it doesn’t go directly to those in need means it is probably missed by many households.</p>
<p>Today’s announcement was quiet on reintroducing social tariffs and funding for energy efficiency, suggesting the government has gone cold on these measures since announcing them in the <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9491/CBP-9491.pdf">autumn statement 2022</a>. Either form of support could have been funded, at least partly, by the extended windfall tax on oil and gas companies. This apparent U-turn compounds the government’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/23/uk-ministers-scrap-energy-efficiency-taskforce-after-six-months">decision in September</a> to terminate its energy efficiency taskforce. </p>
<p>It risks <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/UK-housing-Fit-for-the-future-CCC-2019.pdf">another decade</a> of low investment into domestic energy efficiency, at a time when UK households are living in some of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-some-of-the-least-energy-efficient-housing-in-europe-heres-how-to-fix-this-151609">leakiest homes in Europe</a>. There’s a clear need for a large-scale rollout of energy efficiency, perhaps by extending the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/energy-company-obligation-eco">existing requirement</a> on energy companies to insulate the homes of those in fuel poverty.</p>
<p>Not only would this be consistent with the government’s energy-security agenda, it is also <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9491/CBP-9491.pdf">widely acknowledged</a> as the key to making energy affordable to consumers for the long term. Despite today’s tax cuts, <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/mwb7/ukea">real incomes</a> have eroded, and many <a href="https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate/britains-cold-homes-crisis-affecting-nearly-10m-households">households are struggling</a> to keep their homes warm. <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/all-available-charts?keyword=debt&sort=relevance">Energy debt and arrears</a> rose to record levels from £1.3 billion to £3.1 billion between 2021 and 2024.</p>
<p>This will all have a <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NEA-debt-allowance-consultation-response.pdf">long-lasting impact</a> on UK households’ physical and mental health. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324001221">My recent research</a> shows that strengthening households’ resilience to energy price shocks, particularly energy solvency issues, could improve the health and wellbeing of children and adults.</p>
<h2>99% mortgages avoided – thankfully</h2>
<p><strong>Alper Kara, Professor of Banking and Finance, Brunel University London</strong></p>
<p>The chancellor has cut capital-gains tax charges on the sale of residential property from 28% to 24% for high-income taxpayers. This may bring more supply to the housing market, assuming there are landlords out there who were hesitating to sell due to the higher capital gains payments. If so, many of these properties will be smaller dwellings, which could benefit first-time buyers by bringing down prices. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the change may also encourage potential landlords that wanted to own second properties but did not do so due to high capital gains tax. We will have to wait and see the ultimate impact of the policy on households struggling to get on the mortgage ladder. </p>
<p>Hunt has also abolished tax relief on mortgage payments for furnished holiday lets. The previous regime made holiday-lets more attractive for landlords in comparison to long-term lets. Changing the policy could discourage landlords to convert their properties to holiday lets, which should in turn make more long-term lets available in the market. This will hopefully help households struggling with increasing rental costs. </p>
<p>There were <a href="https://www.thomasduntonsolicitors.co.uk/news/is-a-99-mortgage-scheme-a-good-idea/#:%7E:text=Rumours%20of%20a%20prospective%2099,deposit%20on%20their%20first%20home.">also rumours</a> of the chancellor introducing a 99% mortgages scheme to help first-time-buyers struggling to save enough deposit to buy a home. With such mortgages, households could have bought a home with only a 1% deposit. </p>
<p>It would have been good news for first-time-buyers, though these mortgages would have probably come with higher interest payments as they would have been riskier for banks. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="'Sold' sign outside terraced house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580224/original/file-20240306-28-o6gdca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580224/original/file-20240306-28-o6gdca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580224/original/file-20240306-28-o6gdca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580224/original/file-20240306-28-o6gdca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580224/original/file-20240306-28-o6gdca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580224/original/file-20240306-28-o6gdca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580224/original/file-20240306-28-o6gdca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not sold on 99% mortgages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sold-sign-displayed-outside-terraced-house-1785988439">I Wei Huang/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The scheme would also have pushed already inflated UK houses still higher by creating more demand, putting even more pressure on the affordability of mortgages. And such deposits mean a greater risk of home owners ending up in <a href="https://www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/homes/buying-a-home/negative-equity-what-it-means-and-what-you-can-do-about-it">negative equity</a> if house prices drop, meaning the home is not valuable enough to pay off the remainder of the mortgage.</p>
<p>Overall, 99% deposits would have not solved the UK’s chronic housing affordability problem, which <a href="https://www.centreforcities.org/publication/the-housebuilding-crisis/#:%7E:text=Compared%20to%20the%20average%20European,homes%20a%20year%20is%20reached.">many argue</a> is simply because of not building enough new homes. So it’s welcome that the chancellor did not incentivise them. </p>
<h2>NHS investment in tech, but what about basic equipment?</h2>
<p><strong>Peter Sivey, Reader in Health Economics, Centre for Health Economics, University of York</strong></p>
<p>This budget did not offer any quick solutions for the ongoing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64190440">NHS crisis</a>. Despite its problems, the NHS has actually seen substantial funding growth in the last few years.</p>
<p>Over the past five years, the official “<a href="https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/overspent-and-overlooked-why-britains-politicians-need-to-talk-nhs-funding-again">NHS Long Term Plan</a>” factored in funding increases of 3.4% above inflation from 2019 to 2024. This was interrupted by the pandemic which saw a spike, then a fall, in funding. But the overall goals have been met, with spending now more than £20 billion more in real terms than in 2019.</p>
<p>There are also regular announcements of <a href="https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/funding-announced-will-only-partially-fill-nhs-financial-black-hole0">top-up funding</a> each winter. However, with the long-term plan funding increases coming to an end, the <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/articles/health-spending-planned-fall-england-and-scotland-2024-25-suggesting-top-likely">Insitute for Fiscal Studies has noted</a> that existing plans would have seen small but painful real-term cuts to funding in the upcoming financial year.</p>
<p>These have been mitigated by the announcement in the budget of top-up funding of around £2.5 billion in England. But this will see funding <a href="https://email.nhsconfed.org/cr/AQiRgxMQjuRkGPzxzkh8zy8hl2dV-r9smSrWGxi6Wj2_G7Xb99l1WiwX18B-gw">essentially flat in real terms</a>, which will feel like a cut in a health service that is treating an expanding and ageing population with increasingly expensive new health technologies.</p>
<p>The chancellor has shown he is not partial to further increases in NHS spending, stating when he was health secretary, that “money alone” was <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/healthcare/2021/10/money-alone-will-not-fix-the-nhs">not the solution</a>. That sounds fair enough, but with increasing demands on the NHS, it need real-term rises in spending just to stand still.</p>
<p>The budget also announced a big figure – £3.4 billion – for investment in technology such as improved electronic patient records. However <a href="https://email.nhsconfed.org/cr/AQiRgxMQjuRkGPzxzkh8zy8hl2dV-r9smSrWGxi6Wj2_G7Xb99l1WiwX18B-gw">there is already disappointment</a> from within the NHS that this won’t address a more pressing need for more basic investment in equipment and buildings.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Branston is a non-active member of the Liberal Democrats and receives funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies as part of the Bloomberg Initiative to Reduce Tobacco use. He also owns ten shares in Imperial Brands for research purposes. The shares were a gift from a public health campaigner and are not held for financial gain or benefit. All dividends received are donated to health-related charities, and proceeds from any future share sale or takeover will be similarly donated.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Burlinson currently receives funding from UKERC (UKRI) and previously received relevant funding from EPSRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonquil Lowe is a member of the Policy Advisory Group of the Women's Budget Group (<a href="https://wbg.org.uk/">https://wbg.org.uk/</a>).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Sivey receives funding from NIHR.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alper Kara, Hilary Ingham, and Shampa Roy-Mukherjee do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What could Jeremy Hunt do for voters ahead of a general election?J. Robert Branston, Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Business Economics, University of BathAlper Kara, Professor of Banking and Finance, Brunel University LondonAndrew Burlinson, Lecturer in Economics, University of SheffieldHilary Ingham, Professor of Economics, Lancaster UniversityJonquil Lowe, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Personal Finance, The Open UniversityPeter Sivey, Reader in Health Economics, Centre for Health Economics, University of YorkShampa Roy-Mukherjee, Vice Dean and Associate Professor in Economics, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243022024-03-05T16:10:04Z2024-03-05T16:10:04ZKylian Mbappé has trademarked his iconic goal celebration – why a pose can form part of a player’s protected brand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578872/original/file-20240229-30-v6whau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5978%2C3982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kylian Mbappé celebrating a goal with his trademark celebration. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kylian-mbappe-celebrates-goal-after-scoring-2313795107">Victor Velter/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>French football superstar Kylian Mbappé celebrates most of his goals by crossing his arms and tucking his hands underneath his armpits. It has become one of the most iconic goal celebrations in the world. </p>
<p>Mbappé, who is due to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/68346321">move</a> to Spanish giants Real Madrid at the end of this season, has already taken steps to <a href="https://en.as.com/soccer/kylian-mbappe-takes-steps-to-protect-name-and-brand-n/">register</a> a logo depicting his celebration as a trademark in several countries, as well as in the <a href="https://euipo.europa.eu/eSearch/#basic/1+1+1+1/100+100+100+100/017157355">European Union</a>. He has done the same for his <a href="https://www.tmdn.org/tmview/#/tmview/results?page=1&pageSize=30&criteria=C&basicSearch=Mbapp%C3%A9%20">surname</a>, <a href="https://branddb.wipo.int/en/quicksearch/brand/EM500000017157348?sort=score%20desc&start=0&rows=30&asStructure=%7B%22_id%22:%22af5d%22,%22boolean%22:%22AND%22,%22bricks%22:%5B%7B%22_id%22:%22af5e%22,%22key%22:%22applicant%22,%22value%22:%22Mbappe%22,%22strategy%22:%22Simple%22%7D%5D%7D&_=1708963392591&searchBy=applicant&fg=_void_&i=7">initials</a> and most famous <a href="https://branddb.wipo.int/en/quicksearch/brand/EM500000018326248?sort=score%20desc&start=0&rows=30&asStructure=%7B%22_id%22:%22af5d%22,%22boolean%22:%22AND%22,%22bricks%22:%5B%7B%22_id%22:%22af5e%22,%22key%22:%22applicant%22,%22value%22:%22Mbappe%22,%22strategy%22:%22Simple%22%7D%5D%7D&_=1708963392591&searchBy=applicant&fg=_void_&i=12">quotes</a>.</p>
<p>The black-and-white <a href="https://twitter.com/EU_IPO/status/1758470179686604921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1758470179686604921%7Ctwgr%5E6632f5e3550abb68ddc2bb93edd8d49fad4dccf5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.as.com%2Fsoccer%2Fkylian-mbappe-takes-steps-to-protect-name-and-brand-n%2F">logo</a> depicts a smiling Mbappé, celebrating in his usual fashion. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1758470179686604921"}"></div></p>
<p>Mbappé is not the only famous athlete who has looked to secure exclusive rights to their signature celebration. In 2022, Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt applied to trademark a <a href="https://tsdr.uspto.gov/#caseNumber=97552042&caseSearchType=US_APPLICATION&caseType=DEFAULT&searchType=statusSearch">logo</a> in the US showing his victory celebration pose – an application with the US trademark office that is still pending.</p>
<p>The reason well-known athletes look to trademark these poses, and other aspects of their image, is obvious. They wish to turn them into successful brands that can be used commercially in a wide range of markets. </p>
<p>Among the products covered by Mbappé’s trademark registrations are clothes, textiles, footwear, toys, video games, umbrellas, bags, jewellery, perfumery, cosmetics and toothpastes. Any products or brands that wish to use his specific logo, name or quotes will need to pay Mbappé or be granted permission by Mbappé himself.</p>
<p>But how can even the celebratory pose of a sporting star become a brand? To answer this question, we need to look at the nature and function of trademarks. </p>
<h2>What trademark law says</h2>
<p>A trademark is used in the course of trade to distinguish the goods and services of a company from those of competitors. The key, though not only, function is to indicate the commercial origin of a product.</p>
<p>Logos representing a famous athlete’s iconic pose may satisfy this requirement. Such postures can create a stronger association between the player and the products to which their image is affixed, offering a more distinctive characterisation compared with a traditional portrait-style image. Such branding allows consumers to distinguish the products from the goods sold by others, effectively functioning as an indication of commercial source.</p>
<p>For example, if we see a <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Saint-Germain-Collectable-Football-Collect-Favourite/dp/B0BJ2X2PK3/ref=sr_1_6?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.GG1cGhqjdxGCbbyM2RboACiXMD-QZ8LDKRRNro-Mv2y0n8N_T03Mk_-Hvf0edLUlOaLOrj22wTkcdWxmU5bhD4D7aCCpjqXRXyOwtxd6I2CU0qgeYAzPHkbqktN9fYgleTcbRsxLNPdBqd-JVKey-dv8mUplHkVz95fEFPTf18WIexAgZc5Y9o4q0bAA8tQxDSKNmJfpKXubWDSGyzHvWWrpcDev6PpsfQOuh66ZlnKog3FosnXDkj3ldaOX8cxRoBfVZPVVl3lGqkOQSN_uDs118QGAMCaBkl1aktkW4dc.L1hJr0klWKPAdOknhxw1gUFY6OSLcQW3EKBbYod9Xow&dib_tag=se&keywords=mbappe&qid=1709104613&sr=8-6">toy</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-Soft-Fleece-Blanket-Skin-friendly/dp/B0BL2SN57B/ref=sr_1_23_sspa?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.GG1cGhqjdxGCbbyM2RboACiXMD-QZ8LDKRRNro-Mv2y0n8N_T03Mk_-Hvf0edLUlOaLOrj22wTkcdWxmU5bhD4D7aCCpjqXRXyOwtxd6I2CU0qgeYAzPHkbqktN9fYgleTcbRsxLNPdBqd-JVKey-dv8mUplHkVz95fEFPTf18WIexAgZc5Y9o4q0bAA8tQxDSKNmJfpKXubWDSGyzHvWWrpcDev6PpsfQOuh66ZlnKog3FosnXDkj3ldaOX8cxRoBfVZPVVl3lGqkOQSN_uDs118QGAMCaBkl1aktkW4dc.L1hJr0klWKPAdOknhxw1gUFY6OSLcQW3EKBbYod9Xow&dib_tag=se&keywords=mbappe&qid=1709104613&sr=8-23-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9tdGY&th=1">blanket</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mbapp%C3%A9-Football-Birthday-Card-Anniversary/dp/B0CJYL8BNZ/ref=sr_1_27?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.GG1cGhqjdxGCbbyM2RboACiXMD-QZ8LDKRRNro-Mv2y0n8N_T03Mk_-Hvf0edLUlOaLOrj22wTkcdWxmU5bhD4D7aCCpjqXRXyOwtxd6I2CU0qgeYAzPHkbqktN9fYgleTcbRsxLNPdBqd-JVKey-dv8mUplHkVz95fEFPTf18WIexAgZc5Y9o4q0bAA8tQxDSKNmJfpKXubWDSGyzHvWWrpcDev6PpsfQOuh66ZlnKog3FosnXDkj3ldaOX8cxRoBfVZPVVl3lGqkOQSN_uDs118QGAMCaBkl1aktkW4dc.L1hJr0klWKPAdOknhxw1gUFY6OSLcQW3EKBbYod9Xow&dib_tag=se&keywords=mbappe&qid=1709104613&sr=8-27">birthday card</a> or <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Decorative-Painting-Posters-Picture-08x12inch/dp/B0CJS1HH6K/ref=sr_1_104?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.J38YBIPs5sgfYm5fJl_5IXO57eQa-d1JvSIEpEQ_SoKyEQxQaQkmRvfXZtvLWkSFqJOeapgyHqDz7WhgEsenLzr1hvHZWzTK3SU6b3wzYntbmHEg0AVDj5j0B3eCesn84wHee9kGkEFYprsqf9elUDHpV4cJStV6pfz4utYwmh8MTRQm9hscQLi8QO0f7bhrkTqt1Rq53B4o7-mbXDTNM1Z2LSUMt7E0fFZF2jiIQuWh3kjkl98DpHHMeBhqG58tTD8WiXky4eBd6td2G20VVI1VHUiDBXMHgHEwZYhGxnw.uZd71RzvHyyd1WMKQ-2E4P7RVJ0GeAdcG84Jib86ILw&dib_tag=se&keywords=mbappe&qid=1709104845&sr=8-104&th=1">poster</a> in a shop that features Mbappé’s trademarked celebration logo (or any other trademarks incorporating his image, name and initials), we will probably think those products are marketed by Mbappé himself. </p>
<p>So, if a business sells such branded goods without his authorisation, it will probably be a trademark infringement. This is because consumers would buy the product in the erroneous belief that they are official Mbappé merchandise.</p>
<p>Mbappé is a sports icon with hundreds of millions of fans and followers, including 112 million on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/k.mbappe/">Instagram</a>. Thus, his trademarks may soon become notorious to a large range of consumers, especially if he ramps up the manufacture, sale and promotion of a variety of products bearing his brand. Owners of famous brands have a higher chance of prevailing in trademark infringement cases.</p>
<p>It would then be enough for Mbappé to show that a business which has sold a replica product incorporating his pose wants to take unfair advantage of the reputation of such a trademark. The same outcome would materialise if he could show that such a product is detrimental to his brand – for example, if the replica product bearing his brand is of poor quality.</p>
<p>Other celebrities have done the same. In 2016, Australian popstar Kylie Minogue <a href="https://theconversation.com/kylie-vs-kylie-who-will-win-the-legal-battle-between-minogue-and-jenner-55682">started a battle</a> with TV personality Kylie Jenner over the trademarking of their shared first name. Minogue claimed that her Kylie brand would be tarnished if Jenner were allowed to register an identical or similar trademark, describing her as a “secondary reality TV personality”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kylie-vs-kylie-who-will-win-the-legal-battle-between-minogue-and-jenner-55682">Kylie vs Kylie – who will win the legal battle between Minogue and Jenner?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Kylie Minogue posing for a photo in front of a large crowd of cameramen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578873/original/file-20240229-28-zfu1pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578873/original/file-20240229-28-zfu1pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578873/original/file-20240229-28-zfu1pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578873/original/file-20240229-28-zfu1pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578873/original/file-20240229-28-zfu1pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578873/original/file-20240229-28-zfu1pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578873/original/file-20240229-28-zfu1pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kylie Minogue complained when Kylie Jenner filed a trademark application for her first name.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cannes-france-may-27-kylie-minogue-200809382">Andrea Raffin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Protecting free speech</h2>
<p>But there are also downsides to a trademark protection strategy based on the registration of every aspect of an athlete’s image and personality. It may limit the freedom of the public – and especially sports fans – to celebrate or criticise their icons.</p>
<p>Take, for instance, a website dedicated to Mbappé that serves as a forum where fans can exchange opinions about the player’s sporting performance and marketing activities. And let’s imagine that the website’s homepage features Mbappé’s trademarked celebration pose, his name or a famous quote prominently, and hosts fan commentaries that are highly critical of any of his activities.</p>
<p>Mbappé could, in theory, enforce his trademark rights to stop what he may consider a use of his trademark that tarnishes or even takes advantage of its reputation. This would be even more applicable if the website hosts advertising banners and sponsored sections, as Mbappé could claim that his brands are being somewhat exploited commercially.</p>
<p>But such an enforcement would unduly restrict the right of football fans to free speech. It would also unjustifiably allow trademark owners to stop their brands being used for purposes that are not strictly commercial. We should all be entitled to celebrate or criticise our favourite players by posting commentaries about their behaviour on and off the pitch, and including their iconic pose.</p>
<p>Mbappé’s trademark protection strategy is certainly legitimate and in line with the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2022/07/13/the-power-of-celebrity-brands/?sh=739fb0a4d30d">current branding trends</a> of most celebrities. But the French football star would be better advised not to enforce his trademarks against whoever simply expresses opinions and ideas about him without a strict economic purpose. </p>
<p>The risk is not only to lose the legal case, but also alienate fans who may end up disappointed about their idol’s willingness to be overly litigious.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kylian Mbappé has secured a commercial trademark for his celebration pose, and is looking to protect his name and quotes too.Enrico Bonadio, Reader in Intellectual Property Law, City, University of LondonAndrea Zappalaglio, Lecturer in Intellectual Property Law, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244162024-03-05T03:54:45Z2024-03-05T03:54:45ZHow Birmingham city council’s ‘equal pay’ bankruptcy provided cover for ongoing Oracle IT disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578244/original/file-20240227-18-lz49of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Birmingham city.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/birmingham-uk-may-24-2022-aerial-2160648401">Clare Louise Jackson|Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Birmingham city council is set to vote through a raft of budget cuts amounting to £149 million. Along with £500 million of asset sales, this amounts to what my colleagues and I, at the <a href="https://auditreformlab.group.shef.ac.uk/">Audit Reform Lab</a>, think will be <a href="https://www.localgov.co.uk/The-financial-crisis-in-Birmingham-City-Council/58912">the biggest cuts</a> any <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-in-five-councils-at-risk-of-bankruptcy-what-happens-after-local-authorities-run-out-of-money-222541">local authority</a> has ever made.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birminghams-vulnerable-kids-families-face-28552371">proposals</a> will devastate crucial statutory services, including children’s services, home-school transport, early help and adult social care. They will also include a 21% rise in council tax over the next two years and a near complete defunding of the arts.</p>
<p>A local authority cannot technically declare bankruptcy. But it can issue a section 114 notice when it is unable to balance its budget. </p>
<p>Birmingham did so, twice, in <a href="https://theconversation.com/birminghams-bankruptcy-is-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-local-authorities-across-england-are-at-risk-212912">September 2023</a>, citing “the cost of providing for equal pay claims”, which was revealed in September as being around £700 million (<a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=mpGoPXdMuDIyM5V%2fR7jZ9sRXc06X0GNchfxbMcLx9Btlp5WJqWbTqQ%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">between £650 million and £760 million</a>). This new liability <a href="https://auditreformlab.group.shef.ac.uk/financial-crisis-in-birmingham-city-council/">left the council</a> in a negative “usable reserves” position – meaning it would not have the long-term funds to cover its costs.</p>
<p>We have conducted extensive documentary analysis of cabinet and audit committee papers, financial plans, annual reports and other key documents from the past two years. We have also observed public meetings since the section 114 notice. Our investigations show that the initial announcement did not tell the full story.</p>
<p>We have found that the spiralling budget deficits cited in the section 114 notice have little to do with the equal pay issue. Instead, they are the result of a disastrous implementation of a new Oracle IT system, which is compounding a decade of austerity cuts that had already left services severely overstretched. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that the council must have known this IT disaster would have triggered a section 114 notice, but it issued the notice on equal pay claims grounds instead. This raises the important question of why.</p>
<p>What’s more, the council was told there was no reliable financial basis for the amounts of cuts being proposed. The council’s IT problems have meant it has not been able to monitor its budget effectively.</p>
<p>Birmingham city council told The Conversation that there has been extensive discussion in the public domain about the IT issue and that the council leader has spoken of the need for a public inquiry.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A public square under a grey sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578241/original/file-20240227-16-73bzhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578241/original/file-20240227-16-73bzhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578241/original/file-20240227-16-73bzhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578241/original/file-20240227-16-73bzhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578241/original/file-20240227-16-73bzhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578241/original/file-20240227-16-73bzhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578241/original/file-20240227-16-73bzhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Birmingham’s Cetenary Square with the Hall of Memory and the city library.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/white-concrete-building-under-white-clouds-during-daytime-Yp71DMkUAN8">Brian Lewicki|Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Budget overspend</h2>
<p>Since September, the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-66756555">£700 million equal pay liability</a> has been repeatedly cited, by the council and pundits alike, as the reason for the section 114 notice being issued. </p>
<p>The first point in <a href="https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/downloads/file/27684/section_114_notice">the notice</a> does cite advice from the external auditors, Grant Thornton, on equal pay. However, we have since confirmed that they were not in fact provided with the equal pay calculations until late November 2023. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=y2IImvQ%2frWoxH3eHBGDoaOURoSVIORJGBK18xZvPyYMV4myW5daBVA%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=hFflUdN3100%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=hFflUdN3100%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">the agenda</a> for the February 21 2024 <a href="https://birmingham.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/847211">audit committee meeting</a>, the auditors have still not been able to sign off on the amount of the liability five months on from the section 114 notice.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=mkrbNm5PM2UY8SRQs%2bOH04inSk7pXN6%2b5IibKKiD%2fxSXvnlsqlifcQ%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=hFflUdN3100%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=hFflUdN3100%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">cabinet papers</a> from February 27 2024 show that <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=mpGoPXdMuDIyM5V%2fR7jZ9sRXc06X0GNchfxbMcLx9Btlp5WJqWbTqQ%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">the majority of the claims</a> are unlikely to be settled until after April 2025. In other words, much of the liability relates to possible future claims, rather than current obligations. </p>
<p>None of the in-year deficit cited in the section 114 notice relates to the settlement of new equal pay claims. And none of the £149 million of cuts to services relate to any deficit created by equal pay settlements. </p>
<p>Instead, the council’s spiralling deficit, estimated at more than £300 million, appears to relate to the disastrous launch of the Oracle IT system that went live in April 2022. Originally budgeted at £40 million, the <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=57dLUgfYSn9F3fq69m9feOX2LbWPY8wqfbWgNIO0bsW241KaeDVjnw%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">latest report</a> by the head of financial planning to the cabinet on February 27 2024 showed that the Oracle finance and human resources system has now run to an astonishing £131 million. </p>
<p>On top of this £91 million overspend, a further <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=57dLUgfYSn9F3fq69m9feOX2LbWPY8wqfbWgNIO0bsW241KaeDVjnw%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">£69 million</a> of savings in 2023-24 had to be written off as planned efficiencies were not delivered. Our investigations, which have included speaking with sources in the council and reviewing cabinet and audit committee documents and council financial plans, suggest much of this was related to Oracle. </p>
<p>The savings delivery rate, for example, was 91% in the year before the Oracle programme was installed and was around 70% over the past five years. In 2023 that rate dropped to just 18%. </p>
<p>Many of the documents show the council was not able to monitor its budget effectively. An <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=uRU%2bAbtJc8BOZqvhhqUuqJJV83oeoGtllQP4l2sqyi9JCnpQt3DWKw%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">operational assessment</a> of Oracle by the auditors released in January 2024 showed that more than 70,000 transaction errors have left the council in chaos, unable to prepare basic financial information. Through the 2022-23 financial year, council tax and business rates were not being effectively collected.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=uRU%2bAbtJc8BOZqvhhqUuqJJV83oeoGtllQP4l2sqyi9JCnpQt3DWKw%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">auditors stated</a> on January 31 2024 that: “No budget monitoring reports have been provided to Directorates during 2022-23 or 2023-24”. On February 27 2024 the chief financial officer, meanwhile, <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=th2B2HbpMmFdOSZVwXgjxdNIcFGGOmU1c4tJlx%2bjKUk393Wnm7M2yQ%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">said</a>: “Reliance could not be placed on the most basic of financial information from the system, with Directorates unable to receive monitoring reports which reflected the true in-year financial position.”</p>
<h2>Political and financial consequences</h2>
<p>We have reviewed the <a href="https://www.localgov.co.uk/The-financial-crisis-in-Birmingham-City-Council/58912">exceptional financial support package</a> provided by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities. It now seems clear that by July 2023, senior executives in the council should have been aware that the Oracle disaster was set to trigger a section 114 notice. </p>
<p>We can confirm that if the council had waited for the audit of the equal pay liability to be completed, it would have in any case needed to issue a section 114 in relation to a £400 million hole in usable reserves and a projected £240 million “budget gap”. </p>
<p>These figures are over and above the £149 million of cuts the council has now identified. This means that, even if we set aside the equal pay issue, it would not have been a position to set a lawful budget. </p>
<p>This suggests that the council may have effectively jumped before it was pushed.</p>
<p>This has two important consequences. The first is political. Placing the blame on a headline-grabbing equal pay liability puts the problem at the door of the city’s trade unions and the elected Labour party leadership.</p>
<p>By contrast, accepting the section 114 notice on the basis of a failed Oracle implementation – much of which appears to have been withheld from elected members and the council’s audit committee – would have put the blame squarely at the door of the council’s senior executive team. Documents and webcasts of council committees through 2022-23 seem to show senior staff playing down the Oracle issue, with any concerns being “batted away” according to one audit committee member.</p>
<p>The second is financial. Accepting a section 114 notice on the back of the failed Oracle implementation would have fundamentally undermined the current programme of cuts. This is because, as both Grant Thornton <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=uRU%2bAbtJc8BOZqvhhqUuqJJV83oeoGtllQP4l2sqyi9JCnpQt3DWKw%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">pointed out</a> to the January 2024 audit committee, and the chief financial officer <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=th2B2HbpMmFdOSZVwXgjxdNIcFGGOmU1c4tJlx%2bjKUk393Wnm7M2yQ%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">repeated</a> in February 27 2024 cabinet papers, there is no reliable financial basis for the sums proposed.</p>
<p>To quote the external auditor’s <a href="https://birmingham.cmis.uk.com/Birmingham/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=uRU%2bAbtJc8BOZqvhhqUuqJJV83oeoGtllQP4l2sqyi9JCnpQt3DWKw%3d%3d&rUzwRPf%2bZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3d%3d=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2fLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3d%3d&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3d%3d=jUgQCaU3L68%3d&kCx1AnS9%2fpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3d%3d=T19Fn%2bcfuD0%3d&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2bAJvYtyA%3d%3d=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&FgPlIEJYlotS%2bYGoBi5olA%3d%3d=NHdURQburHA%3d&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3d&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3d">January report</a> to the audit committee: “The council is several months from having an auditable set of accounts for 2022-23. There is no reliable forecast outturn for 2023-24, or a reliable baseline cost position against which to set the 2024-25 budget.”</p>
<p>The “revenue outturn report” sets out the actual expenditure for the year. Not having this for either 2022-23 or 2023-24 means the council does not have crucial accounting information on its financial position. </p>
<p>It has also not conducted any meaningful public consultation on the cuts, nor had any independent assurance over their financial sustainability or value for money.</p>
<p><a href="https://auditreformlab.group.shef.ac.uk/accountability-crisis-at-bcc/">Our research shows</a> that these new proposed cuts could cause a cost spiral due to mounting pressures on statutory services and serious business continuity risks. It could send the council over a <a href="https://auditreformlab.group.shef.ac.uk/accountability-crisis-at-bcc/">financial cliff edge</a>.</p>
<p>It is very possible that if Birmingham city council had waited to issue a section 114 notice linked to Oracle, this would have forced central government to underwrite the council’s position until its financial position could be properly assessed. It may have delayed much of the pain until 2025-2026, by which point a new, nationwide funding settlement for local government would have been a real possibility.</p>
<p>With councils like Birmingham facing a steep rise in cost pressures, and an existing <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/17/levelling-up-housing-and-communities-committee/news/199671/government-must-tackle-4bn-council-funding-gap-or-risk-severe-impact-to-services-and-council-finances-say-mps/">£4 billion funding gap across the sector</a>, a new funding settlement for local government will be an urgent priority for any incoming government following the general election later this year.</p>
<p><em>In response to the points made in this article, Birmingham city council said: “The implementation of Oracle has been the subject of extensive discussion in the public domain.” It also highlighted that in the cabinet meeting on February 27 2024, “the council leader spoke of the need for a public inquiry into the matter.”</em></p>
<p><em>Oracle has been approached for comment.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Brackley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Birmingham’s spiralling budget deficits are the result of a decade of austerity and a disastrous implementation of a new Oracle IT system.James Brackley, Lecturer in Accounting, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248812024-03-04T13:41:26Z2024-03-04T13:41:26ZDoes the royal family have a right to privacy? What the law says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579223/original/file-20240301-20-qpf6ze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=97%2C53%2C3149%2C2107&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/auckland-new-zealand-april-11-duchess-186607307">Shaun Jeffers/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From court cases to conspiracy theories, the royal family’s right to privacy is, somewhat ironically, nearly always in the spotlight. The latest focus is Kate Middleton, Princess of Wales, whose whereabouts have been the subject of <a href="https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/a60008117/kate-middleton-health-speculation-conspiracy-theories-online/">online speculation</a> after it was announced she was undergoing abdominal surgery and would be away from public duties until after Easter.</p>
<p>This comes just weeks after King Charles <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68208157">revealed that he is undergoing treatment for cancer</a>, and a legal settlement between Prince Harry and Mirror Group Newspapers over <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68249009">illegal phone hacking</a>.</p>
<p>Interest in the personal lives of the royals and other celebrities <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1461670X.2016.1150193">is a constant</a>, driving newspaper sales and online clicks for decades. You only needs to consider the media frenzy that followed Princess Diana to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17512786.2013.833678">see this</a>, and its potentially devastating consequences. </p>
<p>From a legal perspective, the British courts have ruled that everyone – the royal family included – is entitled to a right to privacy. The Human Rights Act incorporates into British law the rights set out by the European Convention on Human Rights. This includes article 8, which focuses on the right to privacy.</p>
<p>In the years after the Human Rights Act came into force, courts ruled on a string of cases from celebrities claiming that the press invaded their privacy. Courts had to balance article 8 of the convention against article 10, the right to freedom of expression. </p>
<p>Rulings repeatedly stated that, despite being in and sometimes seeking the limelight, celebrities should still be afforded a right to privacy. Some disagree with this position, such as prominent journalist <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-harry-hacking-piers-morgan-b2336442.html">Piers Morgan, who has criticised</a> the Duke and Duchess of Sussex asking for privacy when they have also released a Netflix documentary, a broadcast interview with Oprah Winfrey and published a memoir.</p>
<p>But the courts have made the position clear, as in the case concerning Catherine Zeta-Jones and Michael Douglas after Hello! Magazine published unauthorised photographs from their wedding. The <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/190559/3/Final%20Edited%20Version%20-%20Celebrity%20Privacy%20and%20Celebrity%20Journalism-%20Has%20anything%20changed%20since%20the%20Leveson%20Inquiry_.pdf">court stated</a> that: “To hold that those who have sought any publicity lose all protection would be to repeal article 8’s application to very many of those who are likely to need it.” </p>
<p>There is no universal definition of privacy, but scholars have identified key concepts encompassing what privacy can entail. In my own research, I have argued that the <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/190559/3/Final%20Edited%20Version%20-%20Celebrity%20Privacy%20and%20Celebrity%20Journalism-%20Has%20anything%20changed%20since%20the%20Leveson%20Inquiry_.pdf">notion of choice</a> is one of these. Privacy allows us to control the spread of information about ourselves and disclose information to whom we want. </p>
<h2>Privacy and the public interest</h2>
<p>There are exceptions to these protections if the person involved had no reasonable expectation of privacy, or if it was in the public interest for this information to be revealed. There is no solid, legal definition of the “public interest”, so this is decided on a case-by-case basis.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17577632.2021.1889866">In the past</a>, the public interest defence has been applied because a public figure or official has acted hypocritically and the courts have stated there is a right for a publisher to set the record straight.</p>
<p>When it comes to medical records and information concerning health, case law and journalistic <a href="https://www.ipso.co.uk/editors-code-of-practice/">editorial codes of conduct</a> are clear that this information is afforded the utmost protection.</p>
<p>Model Naomi Campbell was pictured leaving a Narcotics Anonymous meeting and these images were published by the Daily Mirror. The court found that there had been a public interest in revealing the fact she was attending these meetings, as she had previously denied substance abuse. </p>
<p>The House of Lords accepted that there was a public interest in the press “setting the record straight”. Nonetheless, the publication of additional, confidential details, and the photographs of her leaving the meeting were a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/may/06/mirror.pressandpublishing1">step too far</a>. The House of Lords highlighted the importance of being able to keep medical records and information private.</p>
<h2>Royal health</h2>
<p>When it comes to the royals, the history of <a href="https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/a23798094/lindo-wing-st-marys-hospital-facts-photos/">publicity</a> around royal births, often posing with the newborn royal baby outside of the hospital, has set a precedent for what the public can expect about the royals’ medical information. When they choose to go against this tradition, it can frustrate both royal-watchers and publishers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-owns-the-royal-body-public-interest-in-royal-health-reveals-anxieties-about-our-rulers-221534">Who owns the royal body? Public interest in royal health reveals anxieties about our rulers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>King Charles made the choice to openly speak about his enlarged prostate to “assist public understanding”. And, as Prostate Cancer UK noted, this has worked – they noted a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/king-charles-cancer-statement-treatment-b2494190.html">500% increase in people visiting their website</a>. However, he has chosen to not to divulge information about his cancer diagnosis beyond the fact that he is receiving treatment. This is his right.</p>
<p>While revealing further information might stop speculation and rumours about his health, it is not the king’s duty to divulge private, medical information. However, if his health begins to impact his ability to act as monarch, the situation could change. </p>
<p>It might be that the press finds more information about his health without his knowledge, but unless they have a genuine public interest in publishing this information, privacy should prevail. </p>
<p>You would no doubt want your private medical information kept secret, not shared around your workplace and speculated on unless it was absolutely necessary. It is thanks to these laws and court precedent that you don’t have to worry about this. The royal family, regardless of their position, should expect the same standard.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224881/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gemma Horton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even those who seek out the spotlight have a legal right to privacy.Gemma Horton, Impact Fellow for Centre for Freedom of the Media, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234832024-02-26T17:27:10Z2024-02-26T17:27:10ZHow Tumblr raised a generation of feminists<p>Like so many millennials, my teenage years on the multimedia microblogging platform, Tumblr, introduced me to feminist politics, which inspired my burgeoning interest in gender and feminism at university. My experiences as a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44867867">Tumblr teen</a> at the height of its popularity inspired my book, <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/feminist-fandom-9798765101773/">Feminist Fandom: Media Fandom, Digital Feminisms, and Tumblr</a>, which examines the platform in the early- to mid-2010s. </p>
<p>By the end of the 2010s, <a href="https://www.youngwomenstrust.org/our-research/young-womens-feminism-and-activism-2019/">reports indicated</a> that the majority of young women identified as feminists – a far cry from the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Repudiating-Feminism-Young-Women-in-a-Neoliberal-World/Scharff/p/book/9781138274099">preceding decade</a> marked by ambivalence and unease, if not outright hostility, toward feminism. </p>
<p>From high-profile celebrities such as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyuUWOnS9BY">Beyoncé</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9SUAcNlVQ4">Emma Watson</a> declaring themselves feminists, to feminist books dominating the bestseller charts, to feminist commentary in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14680777.2020.1762236">Elle</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3167/ghs.2021.140304">Teen Vogue</a>, popular culture in the 2010s was marked by the sudden and spectacular resurgence of feminist politics. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Quarter life, a series by The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/quarter-life-117947?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">This article is part of Quarter Life</a></strong>, a series about issues affecting those of us in our twenties and thirties. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.</em></p>
<p><em>You may be interested in:</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-you-might-start-to-hate-the-influencers-you-once-loved-222659#:%7E:text=Influencers%20typically%20rise%20to%20fame,feel%20entitled%20to%20omitted%20information.https://theconversation.com/why-you-might-start-to-hate-the-influencers-you-once-loved-222659#:%7E:text=Influencers%20typically%20rise%20to%20fame,feel%20entitled%20to%20omitted%20information.?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">Why you might start to hate the influencers you once loved</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/tiktoks-mob-wife-aesthetic-is-far-from-the-harsh-reality-of-women-in-italys-world-of-organised-crime-222241?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">TikTok’s mob wife aesthetic is far from the harsh reality of women in Italy’s world of organised crime
</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/instapoetry-is-successful-and-theres-nothing-wrong-with-that-222012?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">Instapoetry is successful and there’s nothing wrong with that</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Feminism, it seemed, had lost its former reputation as an outdated and dirty word. By 2017, feminism was so central to the zeitgeist that it was declared the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/dec/13/feminism-merriam-webster-word-of-the-year">Merriam-Webster</a> word of the year. </p>
<p>Many commentators have argued that feminism’s visibility on social media was instrumental to this revival, ushering in its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/magazine/15fob-q4-t.html">fourth wave</a>. And few social media platforms received <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/style/millennials-and-the-age-of-tumblr-activism.html">quite so much attention</a> for their <a href="https://pitchfork.com/features/article/2010s-how-tumblr-culture-legitimized-queer-fandom-frank-ocean-troye-sivan-one-direction/">progressive, queer and feminist ethos</a> as Tumblr. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IyuUWOnS9BY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Beyoncé’s 2013 song Flawless declared her identity as a feminist.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since its conception in 2007, Tumblr has developed a <a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/x346d608w">reputation for its appeal to marginalised users</a>, especially LGBTQ+ youth, girls and young women, and people of colour. Widely used for sharing knowledge, community building and personal and creative expression, both Tumblr and its users readily embraced its reputation as a space committed to social justice and the <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/tumblr-reinvigorated/">open, self-governing exchange of ideas</a>.</p>
<p>Why and how, I wondered when <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/feminist-fandom-9798765101773/">writing my book</a>, did this platform in particular play such a central role in the feminist experiences and identities of so many of my millennial peers? Here’s what I found.</p>
<h2>1. Design</h2>
<p>The design and functionality of Tumblr differentiated it from other popular platforms at the time. Unlike Facebook, where explicit <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWSM/article/view/14509">identity cues</a> – including your real name, age and location – are required for use, the only identity information Tumblr required of users was their age, email address and a pseudonymous username. </p>
<p>Tumblr allowed users to have a high level of control over their visibility and the way they presented themselves. By virtue of its simplicity, customisability and (initially) <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23268743.2019.1667048">lax approach to content moderation</a>, Tumblr enabled a greater sense of privacy and freedom of expression than its more popular competitors. This made the site appealing to those hoping to explore identities, issues and interests that could be unwelcome elsewhere. </p>
<p>Tumblr’s anonymity made it feel safer for its marginalised users, inviting curiosity, experimentation and openness in those important first encounters with feminism.</p>
<h2>2. Broad definition of feminism</h2>
<p>Feminists have long <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/305361/feminisms-by-delap-lucy/9780141985985">emphasised</a> that no single or universal “feminism” exists. Few versions of feminism on Tumblr achieved the <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/empowered">height of attention</a> enjoyed by liberal, white, western, middle-class feminism. But others nevertheless found a footing there, providing insight into the relationship between feminism and anti-racism, queer liberation, anti-imperialism, anti-capitalism and more.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dSHJYyRViIU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Emma Watson’s 2014 UN speech on feminism was popular on Tumblr.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The wide variety of marginalised perspectives and voices on Tumblr combined to play an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2011.642890">educational</a> and consciousness-raising role in the lives of its users, offering more complex and critical insights into intersecting inequalities.</p>
<h2>3. Culture</h2>
<p>For many users, Tumblr’s ultimate appeal lay in its mixture of political and educational content and content that was more playful, leisure-oriented and interest-based. </p>
<p>Many of the Tumblr users I interviewed for my book described their Tumblr blogs as a highly personal repository of all of their passions and interests, from personal life to pop culture and politics. As Emily, who is now in her late 20s, recalled: “I got my Tumblr account when I was 14. I remember an acquaintance suggested it, so I checked it out, and it really offered me a place to collate all my interests. I fell down the rabbit hole pretty quickly.” </p>
<p>When we last spoke in 2018, she said that she was hesitant to leave Tumblr, describing it as a “living document of everything I’ve ever been interested in”.</p>
<p>The mixture of personal and political material on Tumblr served an important purpose for young feminists on the platform. No longer was feminism an abstract, academic and detached endeavour. Instead, it was immediate, engaging and playful, embedded into a bespoke timeline compiling users’ every interest, passion and political affinity. </p>
<h2>Decline and nostalgia</h2>
<p>Tumblr’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444820979280">controversial adult content ban</a> in 2018 was widely seen as a death knell <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/23289252-8143407">heralding its demise</a> and signalling the end of an era for a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305119867442">Tumblr feminism</a> marked by the embrace of different sexual and gender identities. </p>
<p>Yet the ban’s partial reversal in <a href="https://staff.tumblr.com/post/699744158019190784/this-is-not-a-drill-our-new-community-guidelines">November 2022</a> has ushered in hopes of a Tumblr revival. These hopes are built on <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-ae/Tumblr-p-9781509541096">Tumblr nostalgia</a>: a yearning for an imagined past of the platform centring its progressive sensibility.</p>
<p>This yearning is partially driven by doubts about whether today’s popular platforms will harbour the same feminist potential for the next generation. For example, while TikTok has shown some <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09518398.2022.2146774">signs of promise</a>, it’s also home to prominent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14680777.2023.2263820">anti-feminist</a> communities and has come under fire from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/13548565231218629">marginalised content creators</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, its focus on visibility and exposure, compared to Tumblr’s focus on pseudonymity, makes users vulnerable to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20563051211021378">networked harassment</a>, which, as many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14680777.2016.1120490">feminists</a> have noted, disproportionately impacts <a href="https://datasociety.net/library/online-harassment-digital-abuse-cyberstalking/">women</a> and gender minorities.</p>
<p>Despite its imperfections, Tumblr’s unique design, culture and sensibility combined to shape a generation of feminists in the 2010s. I don’t see any modern websites or apps that would be able to follow suit in the 2020s. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/something-good-156">Sign up here</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Briony Hannell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since its conception in 2007, Tumblr has developed a reputation for its appeal to marginalised users.Briony Hannell, University Teacher in Sociology, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239832024-02-26T13:29:57Z2024-02-26T13:29:57ZSouth Africa’s apartheid legacy is still hobbling research – a study of geography shows how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576988/original/file-20240221-30-sh4e18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Inequalities persist in the field of academic human geography.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">erhui1979</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Knowledge matters. It informs how we think about the world around us. It informs our decisions and government policies, supporting economic growth and development. </p>
<p>Knowledge is also power. Certain types of knowledge <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01436597.2020.1775487">are given more value than others</a>. This is driven by histories of privilege. In South Africa, apartheid looms large <a href="https://www.nb.co.za/en/view-book?id=9780624088547">in debates</a> about how knowledge is produced. Though it formally ended 30 years ago, it still influences whose knowledge is considered “right” and whose is sidelined.</p>
<p>And this matters in everyday lives. For instance, health and medical research and instruction used to focus on white and male bodies. This has <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03325-z#:%7E:text=Throughout%20history%2C%20racism%20and%20biases,Disease%20itself%2C%20has%20been%20racialised">directly affected</a> the provision and quality of healthcare. </p>
<p>Crucially, control over the production of knowledge provides political, economic and social power. This has real effects on education, healthcare, social policy and service delivery. </p>
<p>In a recent research paper we <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tran.12640">studied</a> how apartheid legacies continue to affect the work of universities in South Africa. In particular we looked at the outputs of the discipline of <a href="https://geographical.co.uk/science-environment/geo-explainer-what-is-human-geography">human geography</a>, which is our specialisation. It’s the study of how space and time influence economic, social, political and cultural actions. </p>
<p>We found that universities that were historically more advantaged – that is, they served mostly white students – continue to outpace the country’s other institutions in terms of research output. This was true for quantity and quality of publication outputs in journal articles and academic books and chapters. </p>
<p>Our findings show that apartheid’s legacy continues to affect academic output. This suggests that not enough has been done to address inequalities around funding, networking and opportunities for international collaboration. It means that South Africa’s academic landscape continues to reflect the views of a privileged few.</p>
<p>We examined what drove these disparities, and identified strategies to begin shifting the dial.</p>
<h2>Historical background</h2>
<p>The history of South African human geography as a discipline is inextricably linked with colonialism. It was heavily influenced by conservative religious ideas and <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315600635-3/social-change-re-radicalization-geography-south-africa-brij-maharaj-maano-ramutsindela">notions of racial superiority</a>. And <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2016.1220545">during the apartheid era</a> topics were deliberately studied with a notional “non-political” focus, or research was used to support apartheid legislation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/colonial-legacies-shape-urban-nature-why-this-should-change-156334">Colonial legacies shape urban nature: why this should change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the 1970s some research began to emerge about how apartheid policies affected Black communities. This was a first. Research had largely <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/030913258100500201">toed the apartheid government’s line</a> and not focused on the deleterious effects of segregation and oppression. </p>
<p>But, overall, universities either served white or “non-white” students. White universities were well-resourced while others were not.</p>
<p>After 1994, South Africa’s human geographers turned to policy-relevant work as the country embarked on building a democracy. They began to support post-apartheid priorities related to the economy, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0376835042000325697">small business</a> and spatial development.</p>
<h2>The same dominant hierarchies</h2>
<p>The transition from apartheid led to the opening of South African universities. The racial make-up of institutions began to change. And South African academics began re-engaging with global academia after isolationist apartheid policies were lifted and international boycotts ended.</p>
<p>However, clear resourcing differences and hierarchies remain between <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.52779/9781990995057/04">(historically) advantaged and disadvantaged institutions</a>. Consequently, the discipline remains dominated by a handful of departments. Their dominance is maintained by income generation (student fees, publication income, grants), networks – and prestige. </p>
<p>Our research shows that academics from historically disadvantaged institutions feel removed from these global and national networks.</p>
<p>We found a significant concentration of research outputs among a few (historically) advantaged institutions. This allows them to generate research income and mobilise international collaborations to fund larger projects. That allows academics to take on lighter teaching loads. And that gives them more time to conduct and publish research. </p>
<p>International collaborators are drawn by these institutions’ reputations, histories and resources. It’s easier for academics to visit international universities and participate in international funding applications. Such institutions are also able to support young human geography academics and encourage greater publication outputs in ways that under-resourced and small departments struggle to match.</p>
<p>Human geographers at historically advantaged universities have mobilised international networks to appoint overseas academics to honorary positions. These moves boost the institutions’ publication outputs – and their income from <a href="https://www.dhet.gov.za/SitePages/University%20Research%20Support%20and%20Policy%20Development.aspx">government subsidies and incentives</a>.</p>
<p>As one interviewee described it, the cycle of opportunity and prestige for historically advantaged institutions leaves</p>
<blockquote>
<p>historically Black institutions always on the back foot … the playing ground is not levelled.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>These challenges could be addressed in several ways. One approach might be for more resourced universities to support historically disadvantaged institutions in developing contacts, networks and strategic policies to attract and appoint visiting research fellows. This would open up opportunities for funding. That, ultimately, will lead to more research and knowledge being produced.</p>
<p>Many of our interviewees said that more collaboration was needed between historically advantaged and historically disadvantaged institutions. This should be encouraged. Human geographers from historically disadvantaged universities must be consulted about what kinds of support they need, rather than ideas being imposed by those from well-resourced institutions.</p>
<p>Other priorities could include stronger mentoring for early- and mid-career staff. Training is crucial, too, to develop skills in journal and grant writing. Even something as simple as institutions updating online staff profiles would be valuable. This helps to promote individuals’ research interests. It also supports network building and collaborations. </p>
<p>Perhaps, most of all, there’s a need – as one interviewee told us – to push for difficult conversations about inequalities and shortcomings to “shed light on what is missing”.</p>
<p>Ultimately, commitment is required to realise a more ethical South African human geography. The government, universities, and individual academics all have a role to play in fostering inclusion and collaboration that work beyond historical inequalities. This will help to make the sub-discipline more robust and cutting edge. And that’s ultimately beneficial to academics, students and the country at large.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223983/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The cycle of opportunity and prestige for historically advantaged institutions leaves historically Black institutions on the back foot.Gijsbert Hoogendoorn, Professor in Tourism Geography, University of JohannesburgDaniel Hammett, Senior Lecturer in Political and Development Geography, University of SheffieldMukovhe Masutha, Senior Research Fellow, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231172024-02-25T04:44:55Z2024-02-25T04:44:55ZPregnant women in South Africa should be offered social grants – it’ll save the state money in the long run<p>A baby’s <a href="https://thousanddays.org/why-1000-days/">first 1,000</a> days, from the time of conception until their second birthday, is a <a href="https://www.unicef.org/southafrica/media/551/file/ZAF-First-1000-days-brief-2017.pdf">crucial window of opportunity to optimise their potential</a> – through healthy nutrition for the mother during pregnancy, and then for the child after birth.</p>
<p>Undernutrition during this early period can cause stunting, which has major health and social effects later in life. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6860846/">Stunted children</a> may never reach their full potential, and may suffer from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022316622016893">obesity</a> and related diseases for the rest of their lives. This costs the individual their health and their future, and costs governments <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35389331/">billions in healthcare spending</a>.</p>
<p>Many studies have shown that pregnancy support grants or vouchers improve women’s nutritional status and their ability to access and benefit from antenatal care. Globally, <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_604882.pdf">around 41% of mothers with newborns receive a maternity benefit of some kind</a>. This rises to more than 80% in Europe and Central Asia, but drops to 16% in Africa. </p>
<p>Currently, pregnant women in South Africa receive no such benefits. The child support grant, which amounts to <a href="https://groundup.org.za/article/covid-grant-budget-slashed-by-r8-billion/">R510</a> (approximately $27) a month, is only paid after a child is born and has a birth certificate.</p>
<p>In South Africa, more than a quarter of children under five (27%) are <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR337/FR337.pdf#page=213">stunted</a>. Improving pregnant women’s nutritional status – and thus the health of their babies – should be high on the list of priorities for South African policymakers. It would contribute to ending childhood malnutrition, reducing poverty and unemployment and raising future generations of healthy, productive children who, as adults, will drive economic growth.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-to-change-direction-on-maternal-health-to-solve-child-malnutrition-155493">South Africa needs to change direction on maternal health to solve child malnutrition</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As health economists we wanted to establish whether extending the child support grant to pregnancy would be cost effective for the South African government.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0002781">research</a> found that it would decrease healthcare costs by R31,200 ($1,600) per baby over the first 1,000 days of life, largely as a consequence of mothers attending antenatal care more regularly and reduced neonatal complications. </p>
<p>Applied to the whole population, this would save the government about R14 billion <a href="https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0002781#pgph.0002781.ref001">(US$720 million) over the first 1,000 days</a> of children’s lives.</p>
<h2>Mothers in need</h2>
<p>A large proportion of pregnancies in South Africa (69%) occur in impoverished households. Almost half of all pregnancies (46%) occur in <a href="https://ci.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/content_migration/health_uct_ac_za/533/files/Child_Gauge_2016-pregnancy_maternal_support.pdf">female-headed households</a>. More than one third <a href="https://globalizationandhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12992-015-0122-z">(35%) of pregnant women run out of money to buy food</a>, and one quarter of them (25%) experience hunger.</p>
<p>Given that <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/media-advisories/government-activities/minister-lindiwe-zulu-launches-child-poverty-and-child#:%7E:text=The%20Child%20Support%20Grant%20has,financial%20year%20was%20R77%20billion">13 million children</a> now receive the child social grant, the number of mothers potentially eligible for a pregnancy support grant is likely to be sizeable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hunger-affects-the-mental-health-of-pregnant-mothers-82006">How hunger affects the mental health of pregnant mothers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Making healthy food choices</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.growgreat.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Grow-Great-CoCare-Maternal-Support-Study-Follow-up-Report-2022.pdf">2021 pilot study</a> by <a href="https://www.growgreat.co.za/">GrowGreat</a>, an organisation dedicated to achieving zero stunting by 2030, gave 2,618 poor pregnant women in the Western Cape province a R300 ($15.40) digital food voucher every two weeks for 16 weeks and showed that the women used the grant money to buy nutritious foods. </p>
<p>The pilot also highlighted the grant’s psychological benefits. Having the power to make healthier food choices for themselves and their unborn babies not only relieved their financial burden but also gave them hope for the future.</p>
<h2>Policy on a pregnancy support grant</h2>
<p>A pregnancy support grant has already been proposed by the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/salrc/media/20210719-prj143-dp153.pdf">SA Law Reform Commission</a> and would prioritise support for the most impoverished and vulnerable people. </p>
<p>Some people argue that the child support grant encourages women to get pregnant. Numerous <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0137352">studies</a> have shown that this is not the case. In fact, many women with children who need the grant do not access it – especially teenagers. </p>
<p>Across the globe low- and middle-income countries, such as India, Bangladesh, Mexico, Nepal, Nigeria, Kenya and Brazil, have tried to address the financial burden placed on pregnant women by providing them with pregnancy support grants. <a href="https://core.ac.uk/works/9057327">These studies</a> found that such grants promote weight gain during pregnancy, reduce maternal anaemia, increase access to services during pregnancy and childbirth, reduce maternal mortality, and prevent low-birthweight births and infant mortality. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/maternal-malnutrition-affects-future-generations-kenya-must-break-the-cycle-66075">Maternal malnutrition affects future generations. Kenya must break the cycle</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Benefits of extending the child support grant into pregnancy have the potential to enhance the lives of families and communities as well as individual children and save the South African government billions. The knock-on effects in terms of hope, motivation, learning and employment of women – and thus for the economy – are likely to be immense.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223117/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Goldstein receives funding from NIHR, UKRI, and the SAMRC. She is on the board of the Southern African Alcohol Policy Alliance SA. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aisha Moolla received funding from the UK's NIHR with additional support from the SAMRC/Wits Centre for Health Economics and Decision Science – PRICELESS SA</span></em></p>Healthy mothers mean healthy babies. Giving pregnant women cash grants could help prevent conditions such as stunting.Susan Goldstein, Associate Professor in the SAMRC Centre for Health Economics and Decision Science - PRICELESS SA (Priority Cost Effective Lessons in Systems Strengthening South Africa), University of the WitwatersrandAisha Moolla, Health economist, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240932024-02-22T19:00:50Z2024-02-22T19:00:50ZSide-effects of expanding forests could limit their potential to tackle climate change – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577038/original/file-20240221-18-mbvixi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The complex effects of planting more trees need to be taken into consideration. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-shot-above-forest-spring-season-1720654045">Mikai/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tackling climate change by planting trees has an intuitive appeal. They absorb the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the atmosphere without using expensive technology. </p>
<p>The suggestion that you can plant trees to offset your carbon emissions is <a href="https://onetreeplanted.org/blogs/stories/planting-trees-offsets-carbon">widespread</a>. Many businesses, from those selling <a href="https://eu.etnies.com/pages/buy-a-shoe-plant-a-tree">shoes</a> to <a href="https://saplingspirits.com/pages/climate-positive">booze</a>, now offer to plant a tree with each purchase, and more than 60 countries have signed up to the <a href="https://www.bonnchallenge.org">Bonn Challenge</a>, which aims to restore degraded and deforested landscapes. </p>
<p>However, expanding tree cover could affect the climate in complex ways. Using models of the Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans, we have simulated widescale future forestation. Our <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg6196">new study</a> shows that this increases atmospheric carbon dioxide removal, beneficial for tackling climate change. But side-effects, including changes to other greenhouse gases and the reflectivity of the land surface, may partially oppose this.</p>
<p>Our findings suggest that while forestation – the restoration and expansion of forests – can play a role in tackling climate change, its potential may be smaller than previously thought.</p>
<p>When forestation occurs alongside other climate change mitigation strategies, such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, the negative side-effects have a smaller impact. So, forestation will be more effective as part of wider efforts to pursue sustainable development. Trees can help fight climate change, but relying on them alone won’t be enough.</p>
<h2>What does the future hold?</h2>
<p>Future climate projections suggest that to keep warming below the Paris Agreement 2°C target, greenhouse gas emissions must reach <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-the-new-ipcc-report-says-about-how-to-limit-warming-to-1-5c-or-2c/">net-zero by the mid-to-late 21st century</a>, and become net negative thereafter. As some industries, such as aviation and shipping, will be exceedingly difficult to decarbonise fully, carbon removal will be needed. </p>
<p>Forestation is a <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/un-scales-up-climate-action-to-protect-forests">widely proposed strategy</a> for carbon removal. If deployed sustainably – by planting mixtures of native trees rather than monocultures, for instance – forestation can provide other benefits including <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0405-0">protecting biodiversity</a>, reducing soil erosion, and improving flood protection.</p>
<p>We considered an “extensive forestation” strategy which expands existing forests over the course of the 21st century in line with current proposals, adding trees where they are expected to thrive while avoiding croplands. </p>
<p>In our models, we paired this strategy with two future climate scenarios – a “minimal effort” scenario with average global warming exceeding 4°C, and a “Paris-compatible” scenario with extensive climate mitigation efforts. We could then compare the extensive forestation outcome to simulations with the same climate but where levels of forestation followed more expected trends: the minimal effort scenario sees forest cover drop as agriculture expands, and the Paris-compatible scenario features modest increases in global forest cover. </p>
<h2>Up in the air</h2>
<p>The Earth’s energy balance depends on the energy coming in from the Sun and the energy escaping back out to space. Increasing forest cover changes the Earth’s overall energy balance. Generally, changes that <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/90/3/2008bams2634_1.xml">decrease outgoing radiation cause warming</a>. The greenhouse effect works this way, as outgoing radiation is trapped by gases in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Forestation’s ability to lower atmospheric CO₂, and therefore increase the radiation escaping to space, has been <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1710465114">well studied</a>. However, the amount of carbon that could feasibly be removed remains a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz0111?intcmp=trendmd-sci">subject of debate</a>. </p>
<p>Forestation generally reduces land surface reflectivity (<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abm9684?casa_token=g8hQeCQFj38AAAAA%3A-w0gwkq7kRepSJwCuW_2iqiFqh7ACXwgb4s-9kA35UgF950MUxAiwmnhbInVZWkJg_YEye1IM47ibPo">albedo</a>) as darker trees replace lighter grassland. Decreases in albedo levels oppose the beneficial reduction of atmospheric CO₂, as less radiation escapes back to space. This is particularly important <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/35041545">at higher latitudes</a>, where trees cover land that would otherwise be covered with snow. Our scenario features forest expansion primarily in temperate and tropical regions. </p>
<p>Forests emit large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with these emissions increasing with rising temperatures. VOCs react chemically in the atmosphere, affecting the <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/1105/2021/">concentrations of methane and ozone</a>, which are also greenhouse gases. We find the enhanced VOC emissions from greater forest cover and temperatures increase levels of methane and, typically, ozone. This reduces the amount of radiation escaping to space, further opposing the removal of carbon.</p>
<p>However, the reaction products of VOCs can <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/14/447/2014/">contribute to aerosols</a>, which reflect incoming solar radiation and help form clouds. Increases in these aerosols with rising VOC emissions from greater forest cover result in more radiation escaping to space.</p>
<p>We find the net effect of changes to albedo, ozone, methane and aerosol is to reduce the amount of radiation escaping to space, cancelling out part of the benefit of reducing atmospheric CO₂. In a future where climate mitigation is not a priority, up to 30% of the benefit is cancelled out, while in a Paris-compatible future, this drops to 15%. </p>
<h2>Cooler solutions</h2>
<p>Tackling climate change requires efforts from all sectors. While forestation will play a role, our work shows that its benefits may not be as great as previously thought. However, these negative side-effects aren’t as impactful if we pursue other strategies, especially reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, alongside forestation.</p>
<p>This study hasn’t considered local temperature changes from forestation as a result of evaporative cooling, or the impact of changes to atmospheric composition caused by changes in the frequencies and severities of wildfires. Further work in these areas will complement our research. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, our study suggests that forestation alone is unlikely to fix our warming planet. We need to rapidly reduce our emissions while enhancing the ability of the natural world to store carbon. It is important to stress-test climate mitigation strategies in detail, because so many complex systems are at play. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Weber receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James A. King sits on an advisory panel for Ecologi. He receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). </span></em></p>Planting trees to remove carbon from the atmosphere will only be effective alongside other strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.James Weber, Lecturer in Atmospheric Radiation, Composition and Climate, University of ReadingJames A. King, Research Associate in Climate Change Mitigation, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235932024-02-20T14:33:22Z2024-02-20T14:33:22ZDementia can be predicted more than a decade before diagnosis with these blood proteins<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575979/original/file-20240215-26-11ceaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8736%2C5819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/patient-blood-draw-by-doctor-people-1989864818">Andrey Popov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the largest study of its kind, scientists have <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-023-00565-0">discovered</a> that a blood test detecting specific proteins could predict dementia up to 15 years before a person receives an official diagnosis. </p>
<p>The researchers found 11 proteins that have a remarkable 90% accuracy in predicting future dementia.</p>
<p>Dementia is the UK’s biggest <a href="https://dementiastatistics.org/about-dementia/deaths/#:%7E:text=The%20leading%20cause%20of%20death%20across%20the%20UK%20in%202022,in%202022%20compared%20to%202021.">killer</a>. Over 900,000 people in the UK are living with the memory-robbing condition, yet less than two-thirds of people receive a formal diagnosis. Diagnosing dementia is tricky and relies on various methods.</p>
<p>These include lumbar punctures (to look for certain telltale proteins in the cerebrospinal fluid), PET scans and memory tests. These methods are invasive, time-consuming and expensive, putting a heavy burden on the NHS. This means that many people are only diagnosed when they have memory and cognitive problems. By this point, the dementia may have been progressing for years and any support or health plan may be too late.</p>
<p>Those with undiagnosed dementia, and their families, cannot attend clinical trials, have an organised healthcare plan or access essential support. So improving dementia diagnosis would provide earlier support and give patients a longer, healthier and more prosperous life.</p>
<p>In this <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-023-00565-0">latest study</a>, researchers at the University of Warwick in England and Fudan University in China examined blood samples from 52,645 healthy volunteers from the UK Biobank genetic database between 2006 and 2010. Over the ten- to 15-year follow-up period, around 1,400 developed dementia.</p>
<p>The researchers used artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyse 1,463 proteins in the blood. They identified 11 proteins associated with dementia, of which four could predict dementia up to 15 years before a clinical diagnosis. </p>
<p>When combining this data with more regular risk factors of age, sex, education and genetics, the dementia prediction rate was around 90%.</p>
<p>These proteins found in the plasma (the liquid component of blood) are biological markers for the changes that occur in dementia sufferers over a decade before clinical symptoms first appear. They act as warning signs of the disease.</p>
<h2>Why these proteins?</h2>
<p>The four proteins most strongly associated with all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease (accounting for 70% of all dementias) and vascular dementia (accounting for 20%) are GFAP, NEFL, GDF15 and LTBP2.</p>
<p>Scientists showed GFAP to be the best “biomarker” for predicting dementia. GFAP’s function is to support nerve cells called astrocytes. </p>
<p>A symptom of Alzheimer’s disease is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8775769/#B42-ijms-23-00616">inflammation</a>, and this causes astrocytes to make a lot of GFAP. Consequently, people with dementia display increased inflammation, resulting in higher levels of GFAP, making it a prominent biomarker. </p>
<p>The study showed that people with higher GFAP were more than twice as likely to develop dementia as people with low levels. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41398-020-01137-1">Smaller studies</a> have also identified GFAP to be a potential marker for dementia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-one-in-six-indians-over-59-really-have-a-mild-brain-disorder-as-a-new-study-suggests-222650">Do one in six Indians over 59 really have a mild brain disorder, as a new study suggests?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>NEFL is the second protein that is most strongly associated with dementia risk. This protein relates to nerve fibre damage. Combining NEFL or GFAP with demographic data and cognitive tests significantly improves the accuracy of dementia prediction.</p>
<p>Proteins GD15 and LTBP2, both involved in inflammation, cell growth and death, and cellular stress, are also strongly linked to increased dementia risk.</p>
<p>But despite the study’s discovery, other scientists <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14737159.2023.2289553">warn</a> that the new biomarkers require further validation before they can be used as a screening tool.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A lumbar puncture being performed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575981/original/file-20240215-28-ncb3gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575981/original/file-20240215-28-ncb3gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575981/original/file-20240215-28-ncb3gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575981/original/file-20240215-28-ncb3gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575981/original/file-20240215-28-ncb3gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575981/original/file-20240215-28-ncb3gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575981/original/file-20240215-28-ncb3gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lumbar puncture is one of the planks of an Alzheimer’s diagnosis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/lumbar-puncture-procedures-collecting-samples-patient-791852374">Casa nayafana/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>Other initiatives are also promoting the adoption of blood tests as a widespread screening method in diagnosing dementia, including the <a href="https://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org/news/a-five-year-project-to-bring-alzheimers-blood-tests-to-the-nhs/">Blood Biomarker Challenge</a>, a five-year project aiming to use NHS blood tests to diagnose diseases that lead to dementia by looking at traces of brain proteins leaked into the bloodstream.</p>
<p>The exciting advent of new dementia drugs such as <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-converts-novel-alzheimers-disease-treatment-traditional-approval">lecanemab</a> and <a href="https://www.alz.org/alzheimers-dementia/treatments/donanemab#:%7E:text=Is%20donanemab%20FDA%2Dapproved%3F,expects%20action%20by%20early%202024.">donanemab</a>, not yet approved for use in the UK, has the potential to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease.</p>
<p>Patients seeking lecanemab or donanemab treatment would require an early-stage diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease. Alzheimer’s Research UK <a href="https://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org/news/bbc-panorama-captures-the-promise-and-challenges-of-new-alzheimers-treatments/#:%7E:text=The%20diagnostic%20tests%2C%20a%20PET,around%202%2C000%20patients%20a%20year.">estimates</a> that only 2% of patients undergo such diagnostic testing.</p>
<p>The study shows that blood tests are an effective way to detect dementia early by identifying specific proteins, providing the patient with the best possible opportunity to receive life-changing treatment.</p>
<p>Early diagnosis of dementia would result in a more effective treatment. A simple blood test has the potential to replace the costly, time-consuming and invasive tests currently used for dementia patients, ultimately improving the quality of many lives.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/playing-a-musical-instrument-or-singing-in-a-choir-may-boost-your-brain-new-study-222195">Playing a musical instrument or singing in a choir may boost your brain – new study</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rahul Sidhu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Artificial intelligence helped identify the blood proteins that are the best predictors of dementia.Rahul Sidhu, PhD Candidate, Neuroscience, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231292024-02-14T16:56:01Z2024-02-14T16:56:01ZNorth Korea steps up efforts to stamp out consumption of illegal foreign media – but entertainment-hungry citizens continue to flout the ban<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575396/original/file-20240213-26-yfm4hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C284%2C3456%2C2012&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People walking on the street in Pyongyang, North Korea, August 2012.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pyongyang-north-korea-aug-2012-local-1308095560">Chintung Lee/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Consuming and sharing foreign media in North Korea can be punishable by death. But that did not stop <a href="https://www.nknews.org/2024/02/north-koreans-consumption-of-foreign-media-grows-over-last-decade-survey/">more than 83%</a> of those who escaped the country between 2016 and 2020 using increasingly sophisticated means to access foreign music, TV shows and films before they left.</p>
<p>According to a survey report that was released by the South Korean Ministry of Unification, illegal media consumption among those who left in the five years up to 2020 increased by 15% compared with the previous five-year period.</p>
<p>Since the mid-1990s, over 34,000 North Koreans have defected to South Korea. However, North Korea closed its borders during the COVID pandemic, and since then the steady flow of escapees has <a href="https://www.unikorea.go.kr/eng_unikorea/whatwedo/support/">slowed considerably</a>.</p>
<p>The number of informants has dropped and the information they bring may be somewhat dated by the time they reach the South. But many tell a <a href="https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300217810/north-koreas-hidden-revolution/">common story</a> of huddling around a TV or laptop behind locked doors, consuming foreign media that was smuggled into North Korea on USB sticks and SD cards.</p>
<p>Escapees also tell how knowledge of the outside has changed North Korean consumer behaviour, relationships and trust in the Kim family’s regime. This has prompted North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, to adopt increasingly harsh measures to combat access to illegal media.</p>
<h2>Crackdown</h2>
<p><a href="https://en.tjwg.org/publications/">Research</a> that I conducted with my colleagues in 2019 while working for a human rights documentation NGO in South Korea found that public execution had been used by the North Korean state against people convicted of consuming or disseminating foreign media. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68015652">BBC reported</a> one such case having recently taken place. </p>
<p>Forcing friends and neighbours to <a href="https://en.tjwg.org/publications/">witness the punishment</a> of those known to them for such a crime is a powerful deterrent deployed by a state that considers outside knowledge a <a href="https://scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl/handle/1887/44120">profound threat</a> to its ideology and the control of its people. </p>
<p>Shortly after inheriting the leadership in 2011, Kim tried a number of relatively soft approaches to controlling foreign media access, alongside continued punitive measures. They included a suite of <a href="https://scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl/handle/1887/44120">information strategies</a> aimed at making North Korea appear competitive and attractive in the eyes of its citizens, capable of producing its own “popular” content to rival the <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781351104128/south-korean-popular-culture-north-korea-youna-kim?refId=31ae7775-0a75-452a-bc83-dc4d7619c047&context=ubx">mighty force</a> of the (South) “Korean Wave”. </p>
<p>More recently, the North Korean government has capitalised on its <a href="https://www.nknews.org/pro/new-dprk-border-security-and-infrastructure-revealed-by-satellite-imagery/d-chinese-border-security-hurts-north-koreans/">border closure</a> to work harder than ever to keep foreign information out of the country. In 2020, it introduced a new “Law on the Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture”. This law sets out specific punishments for both viewers and distributors of foreign media, going further than the existing criminal code. </p>
<p>At the same time, Kim has <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/k-drama-takes-dark-turn">publicly condemned</a> K-Pop (pop music originating in South Korea) as a “vicious cancer” permeating North Korean society.</p>
<h2>Changing hearts and minds</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nkmillennials.com/">Testimonies</a> published by organisations working with North Korean escapees show that consumption of South Korean television dramas has inspired young North Koreans to copy the fashion choices and catchphrases popularised by key characters.</p>
<p>North Korean escapees have also <a href="https://www.nkmillennials.com/">reported</a> paying keen attention to the settings they saw in films and dramas. Modern streets, cars and homes, with people displaying relative freedom of choice, expression and movement, all offer North Koreans a glimpse into life under capitalism.</p>
<p>These depictions profoundly contradict the state’s narrative. North Korea presents the South as a depraved hellhole where people are ideologically corrupt and languishing in poverty. </p>
<p>A recent video from North Korea shown to me by the <a href="https://www.kinu.or.kr/eng/index.do">Korea Institute for National Unification</a> shows that the new law on foreign media and culture is being accompanied by television campaigns. These campaigns harshly name and shame citizens seen wearing clothing in foreign styles, particularly with English language writing or slogans – the language of the “American bastards”. </p>
<p>A similar campaign condemns young North Koreans for showing affection in public and mimicking “western style” dating culture. Such behaviour is criticised as corrupt and destructive to North Korean societal purity.</p>
<h2>Building social bonds</h2>
<p>Consuming foreign media does more than just cause North Koreans to question their government’s claim that they live in an “ideal” society, striving to attain a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/03/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-opens-new-city-and-socialist-utopia-of-samjiyon">socialist utopia</a>. It also unsettles the government’s ability to maintain a culture of suspicion and mistrust between citizens. This could potentially <a href="https://www.nknews.org/2023/03/friendship-and-family-networks-are-key-to-getting-outside-info-to-north-koreans/">generate social change</a>. </p>
<p>When asked about his experience watching foreign media with friends and family before his escape, one North Korean man <a href="https://www.nkmillennials.com/">said</a>: “If you’ve watched it together, then no one would report it. They’d go down for it too.” For some North Koreans, consuming foreign media is an activity that builds closeness through shared indulgence in an illegal act.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="North Korean soldiers guarding a border fence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575571/original/file-20240214-28-yvw98y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575571/original/file-20240214-28-yvw98y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575571/original/file-20240214-28-yvw98y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575571/original/file-20240214-28-yvw98y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575571/original/file-20240214-28-yvw98y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575571/original/file-20240214-28-yvw98y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575571/original/file-20240214-28-yvw98y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">North Korea’s borders have been closed since January 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hyesan-ryanggang-province-north-korea-august-698336161">Stefan Bruder/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Foreign diplomats, humanitarian aid workers and tourists are not yet allowed back into North Korea following the pandemic. So, combined with many fewer escapees arriving in the South, it is difficult to know whether foreign media access and consumption has declined since 2020. </p>
<p>But the Ministry of Unification has pledged to <a href="https://www.nknews.org/2024/02/north-koreans-consumption-of-foreign-media-grows-over-last-decade-survey/">offer an update</a> in a year’s time to evaluate the effect of the new law against foreign culture and the campaign around it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah A. Son does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A survey shows the impact foreign media is having on North Korea’s residents, despite the government’s harsh crackdownSarah A. Son, Senior Lecturer in Korean Studies, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216922024-02-08T16:28:09Z2024-02-08T16:28:09ZHave Conservative councils started placing more children in care each year than Labour councils? New analysis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573757/original/file-20240206-20-u3h0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5734%2C3828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/schoolchildren-crossing-road-on-their-way-1089516491">Studio Peace/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In England, over 80,000 children are now in care, an increase of <a href="https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/children-looked-after-in-england-including-adoptions/2023">nearly one third</a> since 2010. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0145213423005781?via%3Dihub">We’ve discovered</a> that local party politics is a factor in this. Our analysis shows that, between 2015 and 2021, six or seven more children each year were taken into care in an average sized Conservative council than in an equivalent Labour council.</p>
<p>There have been big inequalities between local authorities in the rise in the numbers of children in care since the start of the Cameron-Clegg, Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010. In the north-east of England they have increased by over 60%, while in inner London they’re <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-looked-after-children">down almost 20%</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1468017318793479">Previous evidence shows</a> that the key factor is economics. Children in the most deprived 10% of small neighbourhoods are over <a href="https://pure.hud.ac.uk/ws/files/21398145/CWIP_Final_Report.pdf">ten times more likely</a> to be in care than in the least deprived 10%. </p>
<p>But, despite talk about levelling up, child poverty has risen much faster in Labour councils than in Conservative ones. This means that we would expect the number of children being placed into care in Labour councils to rise more quickly. But the actual numbers of children going into care in Labour and Conservative councils each year is more or less the same. </p>
<p>Our research controlled for poverty. We found that if two average-sized local authorities were the same in terms of poverty, income and expenditure, over five years, a Conservative council would take over 30 more children into care than a Labour council. </p>
<h2>What we did</h2>
<p>We investigated whether rates of children in care have been growing or falling across all English local authorities according to their party political leadership. </p>
<p>We then used a statistical model to predict what these trends would be likely to look like were we to imagine that child poverty, average household income, and council spending on services to prevent children being taken into care had stayed the same throughout 2015-2021, rather than growing at different rates across the country. This allowed us to focus in on the specific relationship between care rates and local party political control.</p>
<p>By focusing on differences in these trends, rather than overall numbers, we are able to isolate factors that can explain the recent dramatic increase in numbers of children in care from factors associated with longstanding differences between local authorities. </p>
<p>Once again, we found that <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/children-in-low-income-families-local-area-statistics">child poverty</a> was by far the most significant factor behind the upward trend. The greater the local increase in child poverty, the steeper the upward trend in children in care. This is, of course, mainly influenced by national policies affecting employment, wages, housing costs, benefit levels and so on. Local councils have little control over those. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young boy looking out of window" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573760/original/file-20240206-18-aw0w5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573760/original/file-20240206-18-aw0w5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573760/original/file-20240206-18-aw0w5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573760/original/file-20240206-18-aw0w5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573760/original/file-20240206-18-aw0w5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573760/original/file-20240206-18-aw0w5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573760/original/file-20240206-18-aw0w5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Child poverty is the most important factor in the rise in numbers of children being placed in care.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/small-boy-sitting-near-window-thinking-248899603">spixel/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Then we analysed changes to care numbers in more detail. In an average sized local authority, the numbers of children in care increased by around seven or eight per year between 2015 and 2021. Before controlling for child poverty, Labour and Conservative councils’ growing rates of children in care appear virtually indistinguishable. </p>
<p>However, because child poverty rose almost twice as fast in Labour councils than Conservative ones, this masked a real contrast between local authorities led by the two parties. </p>
<p>That means that, in an average size local authority, after five years we would expect over 30 more children in care in a Conservative council than a Labour council, holding trends in poverty, income and expenditure constant. Thirty additional children in care would cost a typical authority £2.5m more per year. That’s money that we think would be better spent keeping families together.</p>
<h2>Looking for explanations</h2>
<p>Three reasons might explain the difference between Labour and Conservative councils. First, Conservative and Labour councils may have different approaches to supporting families and protecting children. There may be a greater emphasis in Conservative councils on removing children at risk rather than providing support to families to prevent or mitigate risks.</p>
<p>This was the view taken by Michael Gove, when he was education secretary with responsibility for children’s services. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-failure-of-child-protection-and-the-need-for-a-fresh-start">In a 2012 speech</a> he argued that children were being left for too long in homes where they were experiencing neglect and abuse. “More children should be taken into care more quickly”, he said.</p>
<p>Second, as a result, Conservative councils may allocate a smaller proportion of their budget to family support services, or may fund different kinds of preventative services. </p>
<p>Third, it may be that Conservative councils allocate proportionately less funding to the most deprived areas within their local authority than Labour councils, resulting in less support for families and children in greatest need.</p>
<p>All these hypotheses require testing.</p>
<p>We aren’t saying that Conservative councillors want more children in care. Most councils are under huge pressures because of the rising costs of both children’s and adult social care services, driving several to bankruptcy. </p>
<p>Research shows that the steep upward trend in the numbers of children in care results mainly from national policies affecting families. It is increasingly clear that reducing child poverty, especially deep and persistent poverty, and insecure housing and low income, is the key to reducing the numbers of children in care.</p>
<p>But local actions matter too. Local councils cannot control national economic trends, but they can poverty-proof local services, make sure that the services focus on areas of greatest need and that services respond directly to family poverty by offering concrete help.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221692/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I receive funding from the Wellcome Trust for my contribution to a separate research programme. I have previously been funded by the Nuffield Foundation and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation for work on children's services, poverty and inequality.
I am a member of the Labour Party </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calum Webb receives funding from the British Academy PF21\210024; he has previously been funded by the ESRC and the Nuffield Foundation. He was formerly a member of the Labour Party.</span></em></p>We investigated whether rates of children in care have been growing or falling across all English local authorities according to their party political leadership.Paul Bywaters, Professor of Social Work, University of HuddersfieldCalum Webb, Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169482024-02-06T12:29:33Z2024-02-06T12:29:33ZYouth drinking is declining – myths about the trend, busted<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573094/original/file-20240202-29-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=122%2C57%2C5340%2C3579&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hands-holding-beer-bottles-close-204543214">Africa Studio/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Alcohol consumption among younger generations has been declining for years. And with many pubs and <a href="https://luxurylondon.co.uk/taste/drink/best-london-bars-alcohol-free-drinking/">cocktail bars</a> now catering to the sober and <a href="https://www.verywellmind.com/what-does-it-mean-to-be-sober-curious-4774971">“sober curious”</a>, it’s easier than ever to opt out. </p>
<p>Starting in the US in the late 1990s, and spreading to several other wealthy countries in the early 2000s, young people began to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33188681/">drink less</a> than previous generations, or avoid drinking alcohol altogether. </p>
<p>The proportion of 16- to 24-year-olds who report drinking alcohol in the last week fell from <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/136587/1/Oldham_Holmes_Youth_drinking_in_decline_FINAL.pdf">67% in 2002</a> to <a href="https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england/2021">37% in 2021</a>. The decline was even steeper for younger teens. In England, the proportion of 15-year-olds who have drunk alcohol in the past week fell from <a href="https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/smoking-drinking-and-drug-use-among-young-people-in-england/2021/data-tables">52% to 20% between 2001 and 2021</a>, although some of this may be due to changes in the survey methods over that period. </p>
<p>We have been researching the decline in youth drinking in <a href="https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/y-did-youth-drinking-in-decline/">England</a> and Australia, using both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckaa193">surveys</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13676261.2020.1778658">interviews</a> with young people. </p>
<p>When we present our findings to other researchers and the wider public, we find that adults are often surprised to hear that young people today drink less. In our experience, their reactions suggest a belief in outdated stereotypes of young people as irresponsible and feckless.</p>
<p>They also sometimes jump to incorrect conclusions about the reasons why young people are drinking less, projecting adults’ motives for abstaining onto young people.</p>
<h2>Why are young people drinking less?</h2>
<p>The reasons behind the decline are complex, but by analysing survey data and interviewing young people in England and Australia, we can provide some answers.</p>
<p>The change reflects a general trend in young people’s attitudes toward risk. From smoking to sex, young people – including those in early adolescence and in their early twenties – are generally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/dar.13709">more risk averse than previous generations</a>. </p>
<p>This extends to where they choose to, or feel able to, spend time. Some young people have less independent access to public spaces, like parks, than past generations because of increased restrictions on their ability to access such spaces. There is also evidence that they view socialising in such spaces with alcohol to be <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13710">unsafe and morally suspect</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/add.15611">Recent research</a> shows that drinking has become less routine and expected for young people, while not drinking has become more socially acceptable. This could be due to more efforts by governments and businesses like supermarkets to make alcohol less available to young people. </p>
<p>However, it can’t be the only explanation, as in some countries where there has been a decline in youth drinking, policies regulating young people’s access to alcohol haven’t changed. </p>
<p>Adolescents’ attitudes toward drinking have generally become more negative, while their attitudes toward non-drinking have become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2018.12.001">positive and accepting</a>. Researchers argue that this stems from a longer, more protracted transition into young adulthood, as well as young people’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00380385211008370">concerns about the future</a> and feeling a strong sense of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-4446.12964">pressure to succeed</a> in life, including economically.</p>
<p>We found most of the young people we spoke to didn’t consider peer pressure to be an important factor in their decisions to drink or not, except for a small number of university students who resented how <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13676261.2023.2190013">alcohol-centric</a> social life at university is. </p>
<h2>Misconceptions about youth drinking</h2>
<p>People we have spoken to about our research often assume that if young people aren’t drinking, they must be doing something else instead that is equally (or even more) harmful, such as smoking cigarettes or cannabis. </p>
<p>In fact, the opposite is true: <a href="https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/smoking-drinking-and-drug-use-among-young-people-in-england/2018">smoking and cannabis use</a> decreased at the same time as alcohol. There were some signs of increases in cannabis use among schoolchildren <a href="https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/smoking-drinking-and-drug-use-among-young-people-in-england/2021#data-sets">before the pandemic</a> and smoking among young adults <a href="https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-023-03157-2">after the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>But both of these – like the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/18/uk-health-expert-raises-alarm-at-epidemic-of-vaping-among-teenagers">rise in teen vaping</a> – occurred years after the decline in youth drinking was well-established. In other words, some groups of young people may be smoking cannabis or tobacco and vaping more, but they are unlikely to be doing so in place of drinking alcohol. </p>
<p>And while the rise of the internet and social media happened at the same time as the drinking decline, there is little evidence that young people are using technology in place of drinking. On the contrary, it is those who use the internet the most who also tend to <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/383/bmj-2022-073552">drink the most</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two teen girls smoking electronic vapes and seated side by side on a picnic blanket in the woods" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573097/original/file-20240202-29-61ytvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573097/original/file-20240202-29-61ytvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573097/original/file-20240202-29-61ytvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573097/original/file-20240202-29-61ytvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573097/original/file-20240202-29-61ytvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573097/original/file-20240202-29-61ytvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573097/original/file-20240202-29-61ytvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teens are not necessarily replacing alcohol with other risky behaviour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/vape-lgbt-teenagers-bisexual-lesbian-young-1535887709">Aleksandr Yu//Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is important to note that the decline in youth drinking is not the same as the growing “sobriety movement”. The latter has been behind temporary abstinence campaigns like Dry January, and helped by social media influencers, <a href="https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/body/health/a33323277/sober-celebrities/">celebrities</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8695609/">online communities</a> promoting sobriety as a way a of life. </p>
<p>Those who speak publicly about their decision to go sober usually describe how this decision was made after years of binge drinking. The sobriety movement is about adults reassessing their relationship to alcohol. This is very different from teenagers deciding, actively or passively, not to take up drinking. </p>
<p>Though at least one study has identified links between young people’s decisions not to drink and their <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9566.13237">health consciousness</a>, the general trend is not about giving up alcohol, but about not really developing a drinking habit in the first place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216948/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Fenton receives funding from Wellcome Trust (208090/Z/17/Z) for her research on the decline in youth drinking.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Pennay receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia) and the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Holmes receives funding from Wellcome (208090/Z/17/Z) for his research on the decline in youth drinking. </span></em></p>Adults are often confused about the reasons young people are drinking less.Laura Fenton, Research Associate, Public Health, University of SheffieldAmy Pennay, Research Fellow, Centre for Alcohol Policy Research, La Trobe UniversityJohn Holmes, Professor of Alcohol Policy, Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225572024-02-02T16:25:20Z2024-02-02T16:25:20ZAmerican Fiction: scathing and accurate portrayal of the obstacles black writers face in publishing<p><em>Warning: this article contains spoilers.</em></p>
<p>Drawing inspiration from Percival Everett’s 2001 novel, <a href="https://www.faber.co.uk/product/9780571370894-erasure/">Erasure</a>, Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut American Fiction follows disillusioned novelist-turned-professor Thelonious “Monk” Ellison (Jeffrey Wright) as he grapples with the challenges of the American publishing industry. Despite his clear talent, Monk continuously faces rejection for his latest novel. </p>
<p>It’s never explicitly said but it’s made pretty clear that his book is just not “black enough”. As a scholar exploring the relationship between black British literature and its intersections with the British publishing industry, I was struck by the similarities between the UK and US industries.</p>
<p>The industry continues to face global criticism and has come under constant scrutiny particularly after the Black Lives Matter protest in 2020 brought attention to the inequalities faced by black people, including the persistent lack of diversity and representation in creative industries like publishing.</p>
<p>Authors from historically marginalised communities, including black authors, repeatedly encounter obstacles to getting their work published, receiving post-publication support, or securing a safe platform that allows their voices to be heard. </p>
<h2>The struggle for authentic representation</h2>
<p>In American Fiction, Monk encounters the work of Sintara Golden (Issa Rae) who has gained major success with her novel We’s Lives in Da Ghetto, the sort of “black book” publishers want. Monk considers the book as pandering “black poverty porn” and its success drives him to the edge.</p>
<p>In one scene, Monk asks a bookseller why his books are being stocked in the African-American Studies section as they’re “just literature”. When he takes his books to sit among the general fiction, he’s confronted with a large display of We’s Lives in Da Ghetto. </p>
<p>The pigeonholing of books by marginalised authors is common. In 2010, the writer <a href="https://nkjemisin.com/2010/05/dont-put-my-book-in-the-african-american-section/">NK Jemisin wrote on her blog</a> that she wanted libraries and bookshops to stop stocking her novels in the “African American Fiction” section as she doesn’t believe such a section must exist. She went on to say that writers who find that their books are stocked in this section have a much lower earning potential after being marketed as a “black book” and rarely sell enough copies. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/i0MbLCpYJPA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>This pigeonholing reinforces the idea that only black readers find stories by black authors interesting. When framing certain stories as representative of the black experience, publishers overlook other black experiences – causing the market to be saturated with monolithic depictions of blackness. </p>
<p>The year 2020 was a perfect example of publishers commissioning “black books” to absolve themselves of guilt. A swathe of books by black authors were commissioned and aggressively marketed. As a result, books such as Reni Eddo Lodge’s <a href="https://afroribooks.co.uk/products/why-im-no-longer-talking-to-white-people-about-race-by-reni-eddo-lodge">Why I’m No Longer Talking to White People About Race</a>, a book with a target white audience by a black author, became incredibly popular during the height of the Black Lives Matter movement in 2020.</p>
<p>PEN America’s 2022 report <a href="https://pen.org/report/race-equity-and-book-publishing/">Reading Between the Lines: Race, Equity, and Book Publishing</a> found that waves of diversity, equity and inclusion efforts made by the publishing industry since 2020 have largely been temporary efforts. They engaged with these sorts of equity and diversity drives without enacting real structural change.</p>
<p>Publishing companies sought to “diversify” their catalogues, both as a marketing tactic and so that they could shape themselves as influencers of public opinion rather than be subject to it. In American Fiction, although it is not outwardly discussed, I believe these are the likely reasons for the publication of Golden’s book. It reflects an idea of blackness and black experience that publishers are all too happy to buy into.</p>
<h2>Commercial success vs. authenticity</h2>
<p>After his sister dies unexpectedly, Monk becomes the primary carer for his mother who is suffering from Alzheimer’s. In a desperate position, in need of money and support – and driven mad by the unfairness of it all – he begins to write. </p>
<p>Under the pseudonym Stagg R Leigh, Monk pens My Pafology (later renamed Fuck). It’s his answer to the absurdity of the publishing industry, replete with almost every black stereotype he could think of, including gangs, absent fathers, guns and drugs. To Monk (and initially his agent) this is an unsellable book that obviously calls out the racism inherent in the success of such books like Sintara Golden’s. </p>
<p>To his complete bewilderment, however, he’s offered a $750,000 advance from a publisher who had passed on his other work. Part of the draw of this book for many of the white decision makers he encounters is the perceived “authenticity” of the story and, under the advice of his agent, he takes on the persona of Stagg Leigh, whom he makes a convict on the run from the FBI. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Fuck quickly becomes a bestseller.</p>
<p>In the midst of all this, Monk is asked to be the diversity inclusion to judge a prestigious literary award. Fuck happens to gain a nomination and Monk is surprised to learn that Golden shares many of his criticisms of Fuck, labelling it “pandering”. </p>
<p>The conversation between the two touches on the complex issues surrounding authenticity, commercialisation, “selling out” and the definition of meaningful representation. Monk critiques Golden’s novel as “trauma porn” – a needlessly traumatic story created to shock and entertain – arguing that narratives like hers oversimplify the black experience, “flattening” black lives. </p>
<p>Black authors constantly grapple with the pressure to conform to the <a href="https://research.gold.ac.uk/id/eprint/31240/10/18752-63096-1-PB.pdf">expectations of the publishing market</a>. These are undoubtedly extreme examples, but both Monk’s and Golden’s novels are a product of this pressure. While Monk seems to feel ashamed of chasing the money, Golden sees no issue with it, arguing that she is simply writing to the market’s demand.</p>
<p>Black authors are more heavily criticised for writing books that feature stereotypically black experiences. Alex Wheatle’s <a href="https://afroribooks.co.uk/products/the-dirty-south-by-alex-wheatle">The Dirty South</a> is one such novel that, to this day, faces criticism for depicting black people as “eternal victims”. Wheatle <a href="https://www.scottishbooktrust.com/authors-live-on-demand/unheard-voices-panel">has defended himself</a> stressing that he draws inspiration from his real, everyday life and that he thinks characters should be three dimensional.</p>
<p>Monk, however, isn’t able to come to terms with his own fight against the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMkXeteb_8g">burden of representation</a>, wanting desperately to depict “true” black experience but seemingly unwilling to believe narratives that counter his own understanding of what blackness is. Without even meaning to, Monk is just as guilty of flattening the black experience due to his rejection of Golden’s work. </p>
<p>Both the British and US publishing industries face parallel challenges concerning the portrayal and treatment of black writers. American Fiction showcases these issues and highlights the industry’s tendency to pat itself on the back for small acts of perceived diversity, rather than take any meaningful action.</p>
<p>I thoroughly enjoyed American Fiction and it emerges as a clear voice among critics of an industry that has proven it is greedy for profit over inclusion and representation.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/something-good-156">Sign up here</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ellis Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Meaningful engagement with diverse writers is still a struggle for the publishing industry.Ellis Walker, PhD in English Literature, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224332024-02-02T12:54:33Z2024-02-02T12:54:33ZFour trends you’ll see in online election campaigns this year<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572490/original/file-20240131-17-d8aq6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C54%2C7063%2C4788&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Number 10</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past decade, <a href="https://www.electionanalysis.uk/uk-election-analysis-2015/section-6-social-media/the-battle-for-the-online-audience-2015-as-the-social-media-election/">social media</a> has become an essential component of <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/71/suppl_1/189/4930846">election campaigns</a>. But in 2024, the options seem endless. With a record number of elections taking place around the world, how will digital campaigning look different this year? </p>
<h2>1. TikTok is drawing a crowd</h2>
<p>In 2024, campaigners have access to more digital channels than ever. Facebook and X (formally Twitter) remain a mainstay, but campaigns will also be looking to exploit newer platforms to reach the electorate.</p>
<p>TikTok is the obvious choice, after it was so successfully used by New Zealand prime minister <a href="https://www.tophamguerin.com/work/the-digital-campaign-that-rewrote-nzs-political-playbook">Chris Luxon</a> and Jagmeet Singh, leader of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20563051231157604">Canada’s New Democratic Party</a>. UK campaigners will be tempted to follow suit in the 2024 campaign. Many Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem MPs already have their own accounts, and more aspiring politicians are joining by the day.</p>
<p>While Reform UK and the Green Party have official party accounts, the major parties have yet to join TikTok – probably because they’re focusing efforts on reaching <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/gender-gaps-in-the-2019-general-election/">older voters</a> considering switching from Tory to Labour, who are not TikTok’s natural demographic. However, we’re sure to see more new accounts springing up as the election approaches.</p>
<h2>2. Advertising beyond Facebook is more important than you think</h2>
<p>Since January, we’ve seen a lot of focus on <a href="https://archive.is/RYVqG">Facebook advertising</a>, with Labour and the Tories already spending tens of thousands on these ads. What has been less commented on is expenditure on other digital advertising channels.</p>
<p>Parties are now also using Google, YouTube and optimised programmatic advertising – where automation is used to place ads on websites aligned with a campaign’s desired target audience – to communicate with audiences online.</p>
<p>This means that large sums are already being quietly spent on things like unskippable YouTube pre-roll videos, Google search ads, and web ads on local newspaper sites, websites and message boards. These tools are highly effective at reaching particular groups of voters, with research showing that unskippable pre-rolls are more likely to be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02650487.2022.2153529?casa_token=MpT_kg8wprkAAAAA:G31YJpgCoOc93N297x3LzgdVF_R8MzyQsq462xxdYynsN0OvtJWq-hapfL37dxaPujRokGuw1Ag">noticed</a> by the intended audience. </p>
<p>For campaigns trying to connect with and grab the attention of particular audiences, these tools will be very powerful – perhaps the defining feature of the next election campaign.</p>
<p>The reason you’ve probably not heard about this is because these practices are much harder to monitor than other kinds of campaigning, because of a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3898214">lack of transparency</a>. It’s therefore going to be almost impossible to monitor how these services are using during the 2024 campaign.</p>
<h2>3. Micro-targeting no, Mumsnet yes</h2>
<p>There has been much concern in recent years about the use of microtargeted electoral messaging. This is where people receive personalised (and potentially contradictory) messages based on their personal data. However, there is little evidence that fears about this practice have been realised. Indeed, recent studies – including my own <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/data-driven-campaigning-and-political-parties-9780197570234?lang=en&cc=gb">recent book</a> – have shown that data collection and analysis is often <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/13540688221084039">unsophisticated</a>, and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/data-driven-campaigning-and-political-parties-9780197570234?lang=en&cc=gb">targeting</a> is often focused on broad groups rather than individual people.</p>
<p>Rather than seeing campaigns in 2024 develop more individualised and bespoke campaign messaging than ever before, we’ll instead see them use different platforms to connect with the types of voter their data shows to be electorally significant.</p>
<p>If they’re trying to win support from 18- to 34-year-old men, they’ll be tempted to campaign on <a href="https://www.twitch.tv/">Twitch</a> – a gaming platform which US congresswoman <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/aoc-among-us-twitch-stream/">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> used to engage that demographic group. Alternatively, if they’re looking to connect with 30- to 40-year-old women, then websites like MumsNet will be a better venue for advertising and <a href="https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/mumsnet_live_events/4468388-Webchat-about-women-mums-in-politics-with-Stella-Creasy-and-Caroline-Nokes-1st-February">web chats</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, advertising on Meta platforms such as Facebook will also be used to reach particular demographics – but alongside this tactic, we’ll see campaigners meeting voters wherever they are online. So, party campaigns will need to manage and generate content for multiple platforms.</p>
<h2>4. The playing field will not be level</h2>
<p>Digital technology is often seen as levelling the political playing field. The idea is that anyone on any budget can make a success of campaigning online if they play the game well. But the reality is that, just like offline campaigning, there are significant inequalities in campaigners’ ability to benefit from digital tools.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Keir Starmer poses for a selfie with a young woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572498/original/file-20240131-23-bln54d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572498/original/file-20240131-23-bln54d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572498/original/file-20240131-23-bln54d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572498/original/file-20240131-23-bln54d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572498/original/file-20240131-23-bln54d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572498/original/file-20240131-23-bln54d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572498/original/file-20240131-23-bln54d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young activists could help Labour’s campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/190916320@N06/53458447920/">Flickr/Keir Starmer</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Within campaign HQs, there are vastly different numbers of digital staff and huge disparities in expertise around digital tools. Labour and the Conservatives often have large digital teams for elections (a point evidenced by the number of jobs currently being advertised by <a href="https://labour.org.uk/about-us/work-with-us/current-vacancies/">Labour</a>), but parties like the Greens often have a minimal central staff. This limits their capacity to create and manage content.</p>
<p>Even at a grassroots level, we see parties having different capacities. Labour, for example, has many more <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05125/">party members</a> than others, giving them an advantage. It’s notable that Labour has been making a concerted effort to upskill its activist base, hiring large numbers of <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/the-labour-party_labours-digital-trainee-scheme-activity-7009846602764832768-gvZq/?trk=public_profile_like_view">digital trainees</a> and hosting training sessions on “creating good digital content” and developing “your digital strategy”.</p>
<p>The use of Labour’s grassroots activists in digital campaigns could be particularly useful for creating locally relevant content. Other parties haven’t rolled out such schemes at scale, leading them to rely on local pockets of expertise.</p>
<p>Of course, parties can buy external expertise to compensate for a lack of digitally savvy activists – something the Conservatives may attempt to do, especially given the recent uplift in <a href="https://bylinetimes.com/2023/11/30/government-challenged-over-massive-hike-to-election-spending-limit-which-is-set-to-benefit-conservatives/">campaign spending limits</a> which make it possible for parties to spend more than ever before. The Tories have the capacity to make such outlays, but other parties such as the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru don’t have that financial clout.</p>
<p>The digital campaign will evolve throughout 2024, but it’ll by no means be uniform across the different parties. In fact, we’re likely to see greater inequality in digital campaign activity than ever before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharine Dommett is the author of 'Data-Driven Campaigning in Political Parties: Five Advanced Democracies Compared' published by Oxford University Press.
She has previously received funding from The Leverhume Trust for the Project RPG-2020-148: “Understanding Online Political Advertising” and for the project 'Data-Driven Campaigning: Intended and Unintended Consequences for Democracy' funded by the NORFACE Joint Research Programme on Democratic Governance in a Turbulent Age and co-funded by ESRC, FWF, NWO, and the European Commission through Horizon 2020 under grant agreement No 822166. She has also previously undertaken consultancy work for the SNP and Green Party. </span></em></p>Youtube ads are money well spent – but smart campaigns will also target Twitch and Mumsnet.Katharine Dommett, Professor of Digital Politics, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219012024-02-01T12:42:39Z2024-02-01T12:42:39ZSupervised toothbrushing in schools and nurseries is a good idea – it’s proven to reduce tooth decay<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572161/original/file-20240130-23-ilrc2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5734%2C3828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/little-beautiful-african-girl-brushing-teeth-379214593">didesign021/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly a quarter of five-year-old children in England have tooth decay. In deprived areas of the country the proportion is even higher. And it isn’t just one problematic tooth – children with decay have, on average, three or four <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/oral-health-survey-of-5-year-old-children-2022">affected teeth</a>. It’s the <a href="https://www.bda.org/news-and-opinion/news/child-hospital-admissions-caused-by-decay-going-unchallenged/">most common reason</a> why young children aged from five to ten years are admitted to hospital. </p>
<p>When Labour leader Keir Starmer announced the party’s intention to expand <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/10/keir-starmer-announces-plan-for-supervised-toothbrushing-in-schools">toothbrushing programmes</a> in nurseries and schools, he <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-schools-toothbrush-dentists-b2476479.html">faced criticism</a> for planning to take away responsibility from parents and place further burden on schools. </p>
<p>But supervised toothbrushing for young children already takes place. It has been rolled out <a href="https://www.childsmile.nhs.scot/professionals/childsmile-toothbrushing/">in Scotland</a> and for <a href="https://www.gov.wales/designed-smile-improving-childrens-dental-health">deprived areas in Wales</a> and takes place in some areas in England. It is effective in reducing tooth decay, especially for children in deprived areas. It is not meant to replace brushing teeth at home, but strengthens good oral health practices.</p>
<p>As experts in dental health, we know all too well the impact poor oral health has on the lives of children and families. We are <a href="https://www.supervisedtoothbrushing.com/">leading a project</a> to improve toothbrushing programmes in nurseries and schools in England, and have recently developed an <a href="https://www.supervisedtoothbrushing.com/">online toolkit</a> to help schools, nurseries and parents as well as the NHS and local government.</p>
<h2>Painful – and preventable</h2>
<p>Tooth decay causes pain and suffering. It affects children’s daily lives, including what they eat, their speech and their self-esteem. It stops them from doing things they enjoy and can cause disrupted sleep. And tooth decay has an impact on school readiness and attendance. Children have to take time off school due to toothache and to attend <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-matters-child-dental-health/health-matters-child-dental-health">dental appointments</a>. </p>
<p>While going to hospital for dental extractions under general anaesthetic reduces the impact of decay on children’s lives, the event itself can be worrying for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sj.bdj.2014.331">children and their parents</a>. And poor oral health in childhood has lifelong consequences. Children with decay in their primary teeth are four times more likely to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28571506">develop decay</a> in their adult teeth. </p>
<p>In England, treatment of decay in children and teenagers <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hospital-tooth-extractions-in-0-to-19-year-olds-2022/hospital-tooth-extractions-in-0-to-19-year-olds-2022">cost the NHS</a> over £50 million in the financial year 2021-22. </p>
<p>Toothbrushing at school and nursery with a <a href="https://www.cochrane.org/CD007868/ORAL_fluoride-toothpastes-different-strengths-preventing-tooth-decay">fluoride toothpaste</a> for young children is a way to tackle this issue. </p>
<h2>On the curriculum</h2>
<p>Supervised toothbrushing involves children brushing their own teeth as a group during the day, overseen by nursery and preschool staff or teaching assistants. It typically takes between five and ten minutes. </p>
<p>In Scotland, the <a href="https://www.childsmile.nhs.scot/professionals/childsmile-toothbrushing/">Childsmile Toothbrushing Programme</a> is offered to all children aged three and four at nursery and to some younger nursery children as well to some older school children. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022034512470690">Research analysing the programme</a> has found it to be effective in reducing tooth decay, especially in children at greatest risk, such as those living in areas of <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/10/11/e038116.full.pdf">social deprivation</a>. In England, though, uptake of toothbrushing programmes is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41415-023-6182-1">currently fragmented</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Girl brushes giant model teeth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571198/original/file-20240124-17-217af0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571198/original/file-20240124-17-217af0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571198/original/file-20240124-17-217af0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571198/original/file-20240124-17-217af0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571198/original/file-20240124-17-217af0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571198/original/file-20240124-17-217af0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571198/original/file-20240124-17-217af0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Learning about brushing teeth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zoe Marshman</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s more, oral health is already part of children’s learning at nurseries and schools in England. The topic is included in <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62cea352e90e071e789ea9bf/Relationships_Education_RSE_and_Health_Education.pdf">statutory guidance</a> for primary and secondary schools. Similarly, promoting oral health is included in the <a href="https://www.supervisedtoothbrushing.com/_files/ugd/b03681_311d9c3dcf6c43de9dbc05336733f105.pdf">statutory framework</a> for early years settings such as nurseries. </p>
<p>Running a supervised toothbrushing scheme is one way early years settings can demonstrate they have met the requirement about oral health. </p>
<p>Supervised toothbrushing in nurseries and schools does not replace toothbrushing at home. It serves to complement home toothbrushing to help young children learn and practice good oral hygiene.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221901/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zoe Marshman, via the BRUSH project receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaborations South West Peninsula and Yorkshire and Humber through the Children’s Health and Maternity National Priority Programme, supported by the NIHR Applied Research Collaborations Yorkshire and Humber (NIHR ARC YH) NIHR200166 <a href="https://www.arc-yh.nihr.ac.uk">https://www.arc-yh.nihr.ac.uk</a>
The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the NHS or the Department of Health and Social Care. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kara Gray-Burrows, via the BRUSH project receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaborations South West Peninsula and Yorkshire and Humber through the Children’s Health and Maternity National Priority Programme, supported by the NIHR Applied Research Collaborations Yorkshire and Humber (NIHR ARC YH) NIHR200166 <a href="https://www.arc-yh.nihr.ac.uk">https://www.arc-yh.nihr.ac.uk</a> The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the NHS or the Department of Health and Social Care.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Day, via the BRUSH project receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaborations South West Peninsula and Yorkshire and Humber through the Children’s Health and Maternity National Priority Programme, supported by the NIHR Applied Research Collaborations Yorkshire and Humber (NIHR ARC YH) NIHR200166 <a href="https://www.arc-yh.nihr.ac.uk">https://www.arc-yh.nihr.ac.uk</a> The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the NHS or the Department of Health and Social Care.</span></em></p>Tooth decay is the most common reason why young children aged from five to ten are admitted to hospital.Zoe Marshman, Professor/Honorary Consultant of Dental Public Health, University of SheffieldKara Gray-Burrows, Lecturer in Behavioural Sciences & Complex Intervention Methodology, University of LeedsPeter Day, Professor of Children's Oral Health and Consultant in Paediatric Dentistry, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.