tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/whu-otto-beisheim-school-of-management-3144/articlesWHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management2021-09-17T11:23:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1648872021-09-17T11:23:52Z2021-09-17T11:23:52ZInvesting in sport is still good business for big companies (and vital for fans too)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420230/original/file-20210909-19-k0g7os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C6000%2C3341&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/stadium-lights-flashes-3d-763077928">Shutterstock/winui</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The pandemic has placed enormous pressure on sport. Major competitions and events have taken place without supporters and fans, and vital sponsorship budgets have been drastically cut. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/marketing/how-sports-sponsorship-is-upping-its-game-for-a-post-covid-world/655182.article">one report</a> the value of sponsorship across all sports went down from US$22 billion (£16 billion) in 2019 to US$12.9 billion (£9.4 billion) in 2020. </p>
<p>As one of the most important sources of income for sports organisations, such cuts could have severe consequences for the industry. Fans (and athletes) may well worry about the damage this could inflict on the future of their cherished teams and events. </p>
<p>But the game is not over for sport sponsorship. In fact, <a href="https://cdn.whu.edu/fileadmin/Faculty/Centers/Center_for_Sports_and_Management/20210712_WHU_Research_Report_Sportsponsoring_im_Wandel.pdf">our study</a> indicates it could have a bright and lucrative future. </p>
<p>We found that this is partly down to technology, which has already transformed the way sports are performed (changing the design and performance of running shoes or bikes for example) and the observance of rules (as with Hawk-Eye in tennis, or the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) in football). </p>
<p>Technology has also provided new channels and formats which have significantly changed the way fans get involved with live sports. Through social media, for example, brands have been able to drastically increase their reach and boost their global image. </p>
<p>And the trend is not over yet. <a href="https://burkhartmarketing.com/sports-marketing-changed-by-virtual-and-augmented-reality/">New developments</a> for sports fans include virtual reality goggles, augmented reality apps and digital advertising boards. All present opportunities for potential income streams for major sports organisations. There are entirely new markets emerging too. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/esports-is-the-future-of-all-sports-heres-why-121335">eSports market</a>, for instance, is still growing and provides huge potential to reach both new customers and sponsors. </p>
<h2>Emotional involvement</h2>
<p>Businesses also need to remember that even when stadiums are empty, emotions are still being generated through sport – just somewhere else. And the appetite of fans to be entertained by athletic endeavour is undiminished.</p>
<p>The pandemic has been a test for all kinds of business activity. Yet at a time of huge economic uncertainty, some companies decided to increase their sponsorship activity. For example, Just Eat Takeaway became an official partner for Euro 2020 and has <a href="https://www.thedrum.com/news/2021/06/09/how-the-euro-2020-delay-helped-just-eat-takeawaycom-cook-up-better-sponsorship">since signed up</a> with Uefa’s football competitions. And PepsiCo’s crisp brand Lay’s launched a <a href="https://www.sportspromedia.com/opinion/sponsorship-marketing-newsletter-18-02-lays-champions-league-campaign">major campaign</a> at the restart of the Champions’ League in February 2021. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bottle of beer and pizza on table in front of TV showing football game." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420231/original/file-20210909-27-c28qnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420231/original/file-20210909-27-c28qnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420231/original/file-20210909-27-c28qnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420231/original/file-20210909-27-c28qnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420231/original/file-20210909-27-c28qnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420231/original/file-20210909-27-c28qnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420231/original/file-20210909-27-c28qnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A commercial combo?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/tv-football-game-home-3d-cgi-1790242802">Shutterstock/TheVisualsYouNeed</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A key element of this kind of successful sponsorship is the ability to adapt swiftly to changes and to be close to the consumer and their emotions – wherever that may be.</p>
<p>Businesses can also benefit from the important role of sport in society that goes beyond winning or losing on the pitch. </p>
<p>Fairness and equality are values that the world of sport is expected to reflect. So backing a team or an event is a powerful way for a firm to represent its own approach to social responsibility, as McDonald’s have shown in its <a href="https://www.thefa.com/news/2018/aug/06/mcdonalds-sponsorship-renewal-020818">support for grassroots football</a> in partnership with the English Football Association. </p>
<p>This kind of approach can connect businesses to fans, and fans to sport. After all, without the money sponsorship provides, who pays for expensive events like Wimbledon or the Olympics?</p>
<p>The pandemic has also <a href="https://johancruyffinstitute.com/en/blog-en/sport-marketing/covid-19s-impact-on-the-sport-sponsorship-industry/">shown</a> the important social role that sport and funding sport can play in difficult times. Even with marketing budgets under pressure, the gradual return of sport was surely one of the most celebrated returns to normality – an outlet and focus for emotion and passion.</p>
<p>According to our study, at its best, the financial backing of sports sponsorship leads to stability, communication and entertainment, and the continued turning of the wheels of sports which are loved around the world. New players, markets and partnerships may change over the coming years – but it will stay relevant and vital, both to companies who invest in it, and the fans who appreciate the results.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164887/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The publicy available study has been commissioned by the industry association 'Vereinigung Sportsponsoring-Anbieter (VSA)'.
Lorenzo Kurras does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sascha L. Schmidt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sponsorship is key to holding some of the most popular events in the world.Lorenzo Kurras, PhD Candidate, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementSascha L. Schmidt, Professor and Director, Center for Sports and Management, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1642672021-07-19T13:47:49Z2021-07-19T13:47:49ZTokyo Olympics without crowds: will the home nation’s medal chances suffer?<p>The Tokyo 2021 Olympics will be the first Games to take place with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jul/08/tokyo-to-be-put-under-state-of-emergency-for-duration-of-2020-olympic-games">no spectators</a>. The sight of sparsely populated stadiums and arenas has, of course, become common during the pandemic – and sports economists have studied the impact this has had on athletic performance. </p>
<p>But the Olympics are different. For so many athletes, reaching the four-yearly Games is the crowning achievement of their careers. So there was bitter disappointment when at first <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-the-tokyo-olympics-go-ahead-without-a-level-playing-field-for-covid-19-vaccines-157103">international</a> and then <a href="https://theconversation.com/tokyo-2020-with-no-spectators-local-sponsors-lose-out-163450#:%7E:text=After%20much%20deliberation%20over%20whether,no%20domestic%20or%20foreign%20spectators.&text=They%20are%20part%20of%20the,International%20Olympic%20Committee%20(IOC).">domestic</a> visitors <a href="https://theconversation.com/holding-the-tokyo-olympics-without-spectators-during-covid-19-emergency-puts-the-iocs-supreme-authority-on-full-display-163702">were banned</a> from events.</p>
<p>Now all athletes in Tokyo will be performing to venues <a href="https://reut.rs/3r24QPt">largely emptied</a> of all fans. But this will be more keenly felt by Japan’s Olympic team, who would have dreamed of performing in front of their own fans. And how will the empty arenas affect their ability to capitalise on home advantage?</p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109868">supportive home audience</a> is one of the four factors to which <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-really-causes-home-field-advantage-and-why-its-on-the-decline-126086">home advantage</a> in professional sports is routinely pegged. Others include athletes not having <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/jsep.13.1.42">to travel</a>, being <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/026404102321011724">familiar</a> with home conditions and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00604.x">favourable referee bias</a>.</p>
<p>The hosts of the last three summer Olympics - <a href="https://theconversation.com/rios-olympic-legacy-six-months-on-how-has-the-city-fared-72993">Rio 2016</a>, London 2012 and Beijing 2008 - did unusually well too, gaining a higher proportion of Olympic success, as measured in medals and finalists, in both men’s and women’s events compared with the previous Games. In terms of gold medals only, Brazil went from three to seven between 2012 and 2016, Great Britain went from 19 to 29 between 2008 and 2012, and China went from 32 to 48 between 2004 and 2008.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411728/original/file-20210717-15-br2qu1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411728/original/file-20210717-15-br2qu1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411728/original/file-20210717-15-br2qu1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411728/original/file-20210717-15-br2qu1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411728/original/file-20210717-15-br2qu1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411728/original/file-20210717-15-br2qu1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411728/original/file-20210717-15-br2qu1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of Olympic points in men’s and women’s events, won by host nations of the last three summer Olympic Games, 1992-2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Uses data from the International Olympic Committee and Olympics.com. Olympic Points are summed over all men’s or women’s events in a Games according to the following: Gold=5, Silver=3, Bronze=2, Finalist=1.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3888639">have quantified</a> the general home advantage effects, throughout the modern Olympic period, from 1896 to 2016. Unlike most research to date, we have looked at both summer and winter Olympiads, and at sports held under very different conditions – with or without judges, inside or outside a venue, with many or few spectators. </p>
<h2>Modern Olympic history</h2>
<p>We looked at the percentage of all available gold medals won by the host nation for each summer and winter Games in the modern era, from <a href="https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/athens-1896">Athens 1896</a> to <a href="https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/rio-2016">Rio 2016</a>, for men’s and for women’s events.</p>
<p>In the early years the host had a substantial advantage. At the 1932 summer Olympics in Los Angeles, the US team won 28% of the gold medals available in the men’s events and 70% in the women’s events. This advantage then declined over time as the diversity of countries and athletes participating has <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010141">increased</a>, raising competition. At Rio 2016, 207 countries were represented, compared with just 37 countries in 1932.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411419/original/file-20210715-17-udeztm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411419/original/file-20210715-17-udeztm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411419/original/file-20210715-17-udeztm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411419/original/file-20210715-17-udeztm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411419/original/file-20210715-17-udeztm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411419/original/file-20210715-17-udeztm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411419/original/file-20210715-17-udeztm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of all gold medals in men’s events won by the host nation at the summer and winter Olympic Games, 1896-2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Uses data from the International Olympic Committee and Olympics.com. </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411422/original/file-20210715-17-1azh7fq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411422/original/file-20210715-17-1azh7fq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411422/original/file-20210715-17-1azh7fq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411422/original/file-20210715-17-1azh7fq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411422/original/file-20210715-17-1azh7fq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411422/original/file-20210715-17-1azh7fq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411422/original/file-20210715-17-1azh7fq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of all gold medals in women’s events won by the host nation at the summer and winter Olympic Games, 1900-2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Uses data from the International Olympic Committee and Olympics.com. </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1527002521992833">studies</a> have estimated the effect of hosting the Olympics on the success of home teams and individual athletes. Typically, they have found that it depends on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/16184742.2016.1248463">the sport</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2012-0307">athlete’s gender</a>. </p>
<p>By comparing how countries performed when hosting and when not, we estimate that hosts of the summer Olympics could expect on average a two percentage-point increase in their share of success across disciplines, for both men’s and women’s events. Assuming finalists and bronze medals were unaffected, this corresponds to Japan approximately turning every seventh silver medal into gold because they are competing at home.</p>
<p>We also found that the home advantage effect has been 50% greater at the winter than the summer Olympics since 1988 in men’s events. We found no advantage for female athletes from hosting at the winter Games. </p>
<p>Great Britain may have achieved fewer golds in 2016 compared with their home games in 2012, but the overall medal count went up, from 67 to 69. In general, we found that spillover effects of hosting the summer Games on the previous and next Olympiads are normal. </p>
<p>Compared with the year of actually hosting the summer Games, the boost in success in men’s events was one-third as large as in the previous Games, and half as large as in the next Games. But these spillover effects from hosting do not tend to appear at the winter Games.</p>
<h2>Tokyo without crowds</h2>
<p>Sports economists and psychologists have studied how the absence of fans has affected performance during the pandemic. Much <a href="https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/qjp27">attention</a> has focused on <a href="https://theconversation.com/without-crowds-football-teams-still-have-a-home-advantage-new-study-158018">football</a>, where <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102344">studies</a> have found reduced home advantage in matches played behind closed doors. </p>
<p>This is caused in part by how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109664">referees could make decisions</a> without the pressure of a home audience. Similar effects have been noted <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.01446">in rugby</a>.</p>
<p>Not all Olympic sports, however, attract a raucous crowd that inspires performances or pressures the referees. Previous <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/16184742.2016.1248463">research</a> found a significant host advantage in judged sports (such as gymnastics), but not in track and field athletics or swimming, where audiences are typically huge, but officials seldom influence outcomes. And even in stadium and arena events, Olympic crowds are typically more international and less partisan than at a Premier League football match.</p>
<p>Japan’s athletes will also still have favourable home knowledge and experience of the conditions on site (the climate, routines, and venues). These might, however, somewhat be reduced due to the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2020-test-aquatics-idUSKBN2BS26V">cancellation</a> of Olympic test events and the COVID measures on-site, which remain extraordinary compared to other years.</p>
<p>International athletes, meanwhile, will have had to travel to Tokyo. And all participants who do not live in Japan will have had to quarantine at their accommodation upon arrival for at least <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/covid-19-rules-tokyo-olympics-spectators-banned-vaccination/story?id=78225985">three days</a>. </p>
<p>Therefore, Japan is still likely to do well. A strong showing by the host nation matters. While the economic benefits of hosting are <a href="https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9781840649475.00017.xml">minimal</a> despite their <a href="https://time.com/4421865/olympics-cost-history/">ever increasing</a> costs, research has shown there are other positive benefits, from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2017.05.001">increased sports participation</a> among citizens to a sense of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2012.07.001">national pride, happiness</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2009.11.005">wellbeing</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Singleton receives funding from the Economics and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johan Rewilak receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominik Schreyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Throughout the modern Olympic period, the host nation has had a home advantage. But crowds are not the only factorCarl Singleton, Associate Professor in Economics, University of ReadingDominik Schreyer, Assistant Professor of Sports Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementJohan Rewilak, Lecturer in Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1641112021-07-07T12:25:09Z2021-07-07T12:25:09Z¿Habría tenido España más posibilidades de ganar a Italia si hubiera tirado el primer penalti?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410146/original/file-20210707-15-1ssw8ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4938%2C3294&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/saint-petersburg-russia-july-2-2021-2002181225">Shutterstock / Alizada Studios</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>La selección española quedó eliminada por la selección italiana en la tanda de penaltis en las semifinales de la Eurocopa 2020. Ambos equipos se vieron obligados a decidir el partido en esta suerte fatídica al no ser capaces de desempatar en los noventa minutos de partido ni durante la media hora de prórroga. </p>
<p>En una tanda de penaltis, cada equipo se turna para lanzarlos. Según la normativa actual, el árbitro sortea en qué portería se lanza y qué equipo será el primero en enfrentarse al portero rival. El martes por la noche, el primero en tirar fue Italia, que logró clasificarse para la gran final al fallar únicamente una pena máxima frente a los dos errores cometidos por los jugadores españoles Álvaro Morata y Dani Olmo. </p>
<p>Nuestro <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0899825621000117">estudio</a> publicado en la revista <em>Games and Economic behavior</em> plantea la siguiente pregunta: ¿Tiene ventaja el equipo que lanza el primer penalti? La teoría sigue siendo plausible y atractiva. Es coherente con la simplicidad del formato de una tanda de penaltis, una competición sencilla en la que ambos equipos se turnan para intentar marcar desde un punto fijo a 11 metros de la línea de gol.</p>
<p>Sin embargo, demostramos que este no es el elemento más decisivo.</p>
<h2>¿Ventaja para el primer tirador?</h2>
<p>El resultado de cada lanzamiento en una tanda de penaltis no es ambiguo –es gol o no– y está claro qué equipo va por delante. Dado que aproximadamente <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1257/00028280260344678">el 75% de los penaltis</a> acaban dentro de la red, el orden de los lanzadores puede ser importante porque influye en los resultados intermedios. Tirar después del rival puede suponer tanta presión para los jugadores que empiezan a procrastinar. <a href="https://www.sportbible.com/football/news-bruno-fernandes-panned-for-letting-villarreal-take-first-penalty-in-eu-20210527">Muchos</a> parecen adoptar este <a href="https://punditarena.com/football/daniel-hussey/bruno-fernandes-penalty-man-united-villarreal/">punto</a> de <a href="https://www.caughtoffside.com/2021/05/27/bruno-fernandes-penalty-error-gave-villarreal-edge-over-man-united/">vista</a>. </p>
<p>El tema ha inspirado una gran cantidad de investigaciones a lo largo de los años, y existen defensores de ambas interpretaciones. Por ejemplo, un artículo publicado en la prestigiosa <em>American Economic Review</em> señaló que disparar primero aumenta significativamente las posibilidades de ganar de un equipo, mientras que <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1516">las encuestas</a> realizadas <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.10.008">más tarde</a> no han identificado tal efecto.</p>
<p>En otros deportes, los resultados relativos a la “ventaja del primero en llegar” también son contradictorios. En el hockey, por ejemplo, se ha argumentado que tirar primero en una tanda de penaltis <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12073">no proporciona</a> una ventaja significativa. En el cricket, parece que batear primero puede incluso tener un <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02203.x">efecto negativo</a> en el resultado del partido.</p>
<p>En nuestro reciente estudio, nos preguntamos si es el derecho a determinar la secuencia de disparos, el derecho a elegir qué equipo tira primero, lo que importa, y no simplemente el hecho de que uno pueda tirar primero.</p>
<h2>Cara o cruz</h2>
<p>Para dar seguimiento a nuestra hipótesis, analizamos 207 tandas de penaltis en 14 torneos internacionales de fútbol entre julio de 2003 y agosto de 2017, incluyendo la Copa Mundial de la FIFA (10 tandas de penaltis) y la Eurocopa organizada por la UEFA (9) para las selecciones nacionales, y, en lo que respecta a los clubes, las dos copas europeas de la Champions League (30) y la Europa League (68).</p>
<p>Antes de cada tanda de penaltis, el árbitro tira una moneda al aire en presencia de los capitanes de los dos equipos. El capitán ganador puede entonces elegir entre lanzar el primer o el segundo penalti. En teoría, ir en segundo lugar podría ser una opción estratégica si se considera que el portero es mejor que el del otro equipo y tiene más probabilidades de hacer una parada.</p>
<p>Al acceder a las imágenes de vídeo oficiales, pudimos determinar qué capitán ganó el sorteo y qué decisión tomó para los 96 partidos.</p>
<p>Sorprendentemente, resultó que ir primero no era una opción dominante. Sólo el 56% de los capitanes decidieron disparar en primer lugar, mientras que el 44% restante envió a su portero a la portería primero con la esperanza de una parada temprana, quizás creyendo en una “ventaja de segundo movimiento”. En la Eurocopa, celebrada en Francia en 2016, la decisión de lanzar un segundo tiro se tomó incluso en las tres tandas de penaltis del torneo.</p>
<p>El equipo cuyo capitán ganaba el sorteo ganaba alrededor del 60 por ciento de los penaltis posteriores. Esto es significativamente mejor que el 50 % de posibilidades que cabría esperar si las decisiones de los capitanes no supusieran ninguna diferencia.</p>
<p>Además, al igual que la mayoría de las <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1516">investigaciones anteriores</a>, no encontramos ninguna ventaja en ser el primer equipo en lanzar un penalti, ya que la frecuencia de victorias de los primeros equipos en lanzar un penalti sólo es de alrededor del 51 % en estas competiciones internacionales de fútbol.</p>
<p>El orden de los lanzamientos no parece importar, mientras que el derecho a determinar la secuencia sí. Esto puede deberse a que los capitanes que ganan el lanzamiento de la moneda son capaces de evaluar la fuerza relativa de los porteros y los lanzadores de los dos equipos y entonces deciden la secuencia más favorable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164111/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.</span></em></p>Un estudio de 100 tandas de penaltis en los principales torneos muestra que el orden de los lanzamientos no es determinante.Dominik Schreyer, Assistant Professor of Sports Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementMatthias Sutter, Professor of Economics, Behaviour and Design, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective GoodsSascha L. Schmidt, Professor and Director, Center for Sports and Management, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1635832021-06-29T20:43:42Z2021-06-29T20:43:42ZTirs au but : la France aurait-elle eu plus de chances de battre la Suisse en tirant en premier ?<p><a href="https://www.lequipe.fr/Football/Actualites/La-france-eliminee-en-8es-par-la-suisse-aux-tirs-au-but-apres-un-match-de-folie/1266688">Éliminée par la Suisse</a> au stade des huitièmes de finale à Bucarest en Roumanie, la France se voyait sans doute continuer son parcours plus loin dans l’Euro-2020. D’autant qu’une qualification pour le tour suivant semblait acquise alors que les tricolores menaient 3 buts à 1. Rattrapés à quelques minutes de la fin, les Bleus ont dû jouer les prolongations. Personne n’ayant fait la différence à l’issue de ces trente minutes supplémentaires, il a fallu départager les deux équipes avec une séance de tirs au but.</p>
<p>Au cours d’une séance de tirs au but, chaque équipe tire alternativement. L’arbitre tire au sort le capitaine qui décidera laquelle sera la première à se présenter face au gardien adverse. Lundi soir, ce fut la Suisse. L’équipe qui a réussi le plus de ses cinq penalties est qualifiée. L’échec de Kylian Mbappé, cinquième tireur français face au gardien Suisse Yann Sommer a ainsi envoyé la sélection helvétique en quart de finale.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0899825621000117">Notre étude</a> publiée dans la revue <em>Games and Economic behavior</em> s’intéresse à la question suivante : l’équipe qui tire le premier penalty bénéficie-t-elle ainsi d’un avantage ? La théorie reste plausible et attrayante. Elle s’accorde avec la simplicité du format d’une séance de tirs au but, un concours simple dans lequel les deux équipes essaient tour à tour de marquer depuis un point fixe situé à 11 mètres de la ligne de but.</p>
<p>Nous montrons qu’il ne s’agit toutefois pas de l’élément le plus décisif.</p>
<h2>Avantage au premier tireur ?</h2>
<p>Le résultat de chaque tentative lors d’une séance de penalties demeure sans ambiguïté – c’est un but ou pas – et on sait clairement quelle équipe est en tête. Étant donné qu’environ <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1257/00028280260344678">75 % des penalties</a> finissent au fond des filets, l’ordre des tireurs peut donc avoir de l’importance car il influence sur les scores intermédiaires. Le fait d’être à la traîne peut mettre tellement de pression sur les joueurs qu’ils commencent à tergiverser.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sportbible.com/football/news-bruno-fernandes-panned-for-letting-villarreal-take-first-penalty-in-eu-20210527">Nombreux</a> semblent ceux qui adoptent ce <a href="https://punditarena.com/football/daniel-hussey/bruno-fernandes-penalty-man-united-villarreal/">point</a> de <a href="https://www.caughtoffside.com/2021/05/27/bruno-fernandes-penalty-error-gave-villarreal-edge-over-man-united/">vue</a>. Le sujet a inspiré de nombreuses recherches au fil des ans et des partisans des deux camps existent. Un papier publié dans la prestigieuse <em>American Economic Review</em> tend ainsi à montrer que le fait de tirer en premier augmente considérablement les chances de victoire d’une équipe, alors que des <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1516">enquêtes</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.10.008">ultérieures</a> n’ont pas identifié pareil effet.</p>
<p>Dans d’autres sports, les conclusions concernant cette idée d’« avantage au premier tireur » (« first-mover advantage » en anglais) restent également mitigées. Au hockey, par exemple, a été défendue l’idée que le fait de tirer le premier dans une séance de tirs au but n’apporte <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12073">pas d’avantage significatif</a>. Au cricket, il semble que le fait de frapper le premier peut même avoir un <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02203.x">effet négatif</a> sur l’issue du match.</p>
<p>Dans notre récente étude, nous nous sommes demandé si ce n’est pas plutôt le droit de déterminer la séquence des coups dans une séance de tirs, celui de pouvoir choisir quelle équipe tire en premier, qui importe et non simplement le fait de pouvoir tirer en premier.</p>
<h2>Pile ou face</h2>
<p>Pour donner suite à notre questionnement, nous avons analysé 207 séances de tirs au but dans 14 tournois internationaux de football entre juillet 2003 et août 2017, dont la Coupe du monde de la FIFA (10 séances de tirs au but) et l’Euro organisé par l’UEFA (9) pour les sélections nationales, et, pour ce qui est des clubs, les deux coupes d’Europe : la Ligue des Champions (30) et l’Europa League (68).</p>
<p>Avant chaque séance de tirs au but, les deux capitaines d’équipe choisissent pile ou face et l’arbitre jette une pièce en l’air. Le capitaine gagnant peut alors choisir de tirer en premier ou en second. En théorie, le fait de passer en deuxième position pourrait être un choix stratégique si le gardien de but est considéré comme meilleur que celui de l’autre équipe et plus susceptible de faire un arrêt.</p>
<p>En accédant aux séquences vidéo officielles, nous avons pu déterminer quel capitaine avait gagné le tirage au sort et quelle décision il avait prise pour 96 séances.</p>
<p>De manière surprenante peut-être, il s’est avéré que le choix de passer en premier n’est pas une option résolument dominante. Seuls 56 % des capitaines ont décidé de tirer en premier, tandis que les 44 % restants ont envoyé leur gardien dans le but en premier dans l’espoir d’un arrêt précoce, croyant peut-être à un « second mover advantage », un « avantage du second venu ». Lors de l’Euro, organisé en France en 2016, la décision de tirer en second a même été prise dans les trois séances de tirs au but du tournoi.</p>
<p>L’équipe dont le capitaine a gagné le tirage au sort a remporté environ 60 % des tirs au but suivants. C’est nettement mieux que les 50 % de chances que l’on pourrait attendre si les décisions des capitaines ne faisaient aucune différence.</p>
<p>De plus, comme la plupart des <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1516">recherches précédentes</a>, nous n’avons constaté aucun avantage à être la première équipe à tirer un penalty, la fréquence de victoire des premières équipes à tirer un penalty n’étant que d’environ 51 % dans ces compétitions internationales de football.</p>
<p>L’ordre des penalties ne semble donc pas avoir d’importance quand le droit de déterminer la séquence, lui, en revêt une. Cela peut être dû au fait que les capitaines qui gagnent à pile ou face sont en mesure d’évaluer les forces relatives des gardiens et des tireurs des deux équipes, puis de décider de la séquence la plus favorable.</p>
<p>Lors de France-Suisse, c’est d’ailleurs le capitaine de la sélection helvète Granit Xhaka qui avait gagné le tirage au sort.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthias Sutter a reçu des financements de Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominik Schreyer et Sascha L. Schmidt ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>Une étude portant sur une centaine de séances de tirs au but disputées lors de tournois majeurs montre que le fait de tirer en premier importe moins que le fait de pouvoir choisir qui tire en premier.Dominik Schreyer, Assistant Professor of Sports Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementMatthias Sutter, Professor of Economics, Behaviour and Design, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective GoodsSascha L. Schmidt, Professor and Director, Center for Sports and Management, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1630392021-06-24T15:38:43Z2021-06-24T15:38:43ZEuro 2020: penalty shootouts can be won or lost on a coin toss<p>Euro 2020 is about to get serious. After two weeks of group matches, the knockout phase of the tournament means every game is win or lose. The stakes are high, the players are tense – and for some teams, a place in the next round may well depend on the outcome of a penalty shootout. </p>
<p>These game deciders, held if neither team is ahead after 90 minutes of normal time, and a 30-minute spell of extra time, are notoriously nervy affairs. They are feared, practised, enjoyed by some fans, dreaded by others, and can make for a brutal or ecstatic match finale.</p>
<p>When it comes to how best to approach shootouts – and analyse them afterwards – one key question centres on who goes first. Does the team that takes the first penalty gain an advantage? </p>
<p>It seems like a plausible and appealing theory that fits with the simplicity of the shootout itself – a straightforward contest in which the two teams take turns to score from a fixed point 11 metres from the goal line. </p>
<p>The outcome of each move is unambiguous – it is either a goal or not a goal – and after each attempt, it is clear which team is in the lead. Given that about <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1257/00028280260344678">75% of all penalties</a> are ultimately converted as goals, the order of moves may therefore matter, as it has an influence on the interim scores. Lagging behind may put so much pressure on players that they start choking. </p>
<p>Many seem to <a href="https://www.sportbible.com/football/news-bruno-fernandes-panned-for-letting-villarreal-take-first-penalty-in-eu-20210527">take</a> <a href="https://punditarena.com/football/daniel-hussey/bruno-fernandes-penalty-man-united-villarreal/">this</a> <a href="https://www.caughtoffside.com/2021/05/27/bruno-fernandes-penalty-error-gave-villarreal-edge-over-man-united/">view</a>, but our recent research indicates that the idea, commonly referred to as “first-mover advantage”, is actually something of a myth.</p>
<p>Yet it is a myth that has inspired a fair amount of research over the years and has supporters on both sides. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.5.2548">One study</a> reported that taking the first penalty increased a team’s chances of winning significantly, while <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1516">subsequent</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.10.008">investigations</a> found no such effect.</p>
<p>In other sports too, conclusions about first-mover advantage remain mixed. In hockey, for example, it has been claimed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12073">taking the first shot</a> in a shootout does not yield a significant benefit. In cricket, it seems that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02203.x">batting first</a> can even have a negative effect on the game’s outcome. </p>
<h2>Heads or tails</h2>
<p>So what other factors might come in to play? In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0899825621000117">our recent study</a>, we asked whether it is the right to determine the sequence of moves in a penalty shootout rather than the actual sequence of moves that matters. </p>
<p>To answer this question, we analysed 207 penalty shootouts in 14 international football tournaments between July 2003 and August 2017, including the Fifa World Cup (ten shootouts), the Uefa European Championship (nine), the Uefa Champions League (30), and the Uefa Europa League (68).</p>
<p>Before every shootout we examined, both team captains would bet on the outcome of the referee’s coin toss. The winning captain could then choose whether to go first or second. In theory, going second could be a strategic choice if the goalkeeper is considered to be better than the other team’s, and more likely to make a save.</p>
<p>By accessing official video footage, we were able to determine which captain won the coin toss and what decision he made for 96 penalty shootouts.</p>
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<p>Surprisingly perhaps, it turned out that choosing to go first is not a decidedly dominant option. We observed that only about 56% of all captains decided to kick first, while the remaining 44% sent their keeper into the goal first, hoping for an early save, perhaps believing in a “second-mover advantage”. For instance, during the last Uefa European Championship in France in 2016, the decision to kick second was made in all three shootouts.</p>
<p>We also found that the team whose captain won the coin toss went on to win roughly 60% of the subsequent shootouts. This is significantly better than the 50% chance you might expect if the captains’ decisions made no difference. </p>
<p>Also, in common with most <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1516">previous research</a>, we saw no advantage in being the first team to take a penalty, with the winning frequency of first kicking teams only about 51% in these international football competitions. So the order of penalties does not matter – but the right to determine the sequence does. </p>
<p>This may be due to coin toss winning captains being able to assess the relative strengths of the two sides’ goalkeepers and kickers, and then deciding on the most favourable sequence. </p>
<p>So if shootouts become a feature of Euro 2020 – and future tournaments – keep an eye out for that coin toss. The fate of both sides could depend on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163039/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthias Sutter receives funding from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominik Schreyer and Sascha L. Schmidt do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows that winners get to choose.Dominik Schreyer, Assistant Professor of Sports Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementMatthias Sutter, Professor of Economics, Behaviour and Design, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective GoodsSascha L. Schmidt, Professor and Director, Center for Sports and Management, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1534792021-02-19T13:38:00Z2021-02-19T13:38:00ZCOVID-19 has crippled the winter sports industry – but a digital revolution will help it recover<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384240/original/file-20210215-21-su8xko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=83%2C44%2C914%2C489&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/skiing-jumping-skier-extreme-winter-sports-1187224186">Shutterstock/Artur Didyk</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was all going so well. When China sparked the greatest winter sports boom in history by trying to inspire 300m people ahead of the Olympics in Beijing in 2022, the forecast for the industry was great. The 2018/2019 season was the most successful for 20 years, as the American and European markets were thriving too. </p>
<p>Then the pandemic hit, and winter sports, like many other industries, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/01367cf5-f7d8-48ae-9410-a52cdd33f94f">were severely affected</a>. But our recent research suggests the technological developments the pandemic has also ushered in could help secure its future by changing the way elite sportspeople and amateurs approach the sports they love.</p>
<p>The pandemic’s impact has been widespread. Ski resorts, hotels, bars and tourism operators have all been affected, as have a whole range of suppliers who depend on demand from these organisations. </p>
<p>While some venues can at least remain open and maintain operations, others have had to shut down entirely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/blow-for-french-ski-resorts-as-covid-rules-hit-holiday-season">for the time being.</a>. Equipment manufacturers and retailers will be worrying about full warehouses that are <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ski/articles/how-ski-shops-are-staying-afloat-during-the-pandemic/">waiting for buying customers</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ledauphine.com/societe/2021/01/06/stations-de-ski-soit-on-ouvre-ultra-rapidement-soit-on-est-morts">Many businesses</a> will not have the financial stamina and resilience to carry on. It is clear the industry will have to adapt to survive. </p>
<p>We investigated the future of winter sports by soliciting opinions from a diverse panel of experts from 15 countries. They included industry officials, former elite athletes, managing directors of ski resorts, technology experts, equipment manufacturers, esports video game developers and media representatives. Our <a href="https://cdn.whu.edu/fileadmin/Faculty/Centers/Center_for_Sports_and_Management/2021_WHU_CSM_Future_of_Winter_Sports_vf.pdf">report</a> aimed to nurture a discussion on the future of the sector.</p>
<p>The experts, surveyed in November 2020, believe that winter sports will take at least two to three years to reach pre-COVID-19 levels (for example, in terms of live attendance at ski events). But, perhaps surprisingly, a clear majority of 30 out of 53 said they thought the pandemic would change the industry slightly for the better. And this was despite the severe, short-term challenges. </p>
<p>This positive development related mainly to rapidly advancing digitisation. In fact, our experts told us that COVID-19 may have forced the industry to improve its digital offering. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-covid-19-recovery-will-be-digital-a-plan-for-the-first-90-days">data</a> gathered during the pandemic, digitisation has been catapulted forwards in many industries and businesses, with five years’ worth of adoption of new technology happening within a couple of weeks. The most obvious examples include using the internet to work, teach or study, buy groceries or consult health professionals from home.</p>
<h2>High-tech impact</h2>
<p>Our experts emphasised that technology could also change winter sports for the better as they become increasingly high-tech. In particular, <a href="https://www.skijournal.com/creative-innovation-boosts-performance-in-these-2021-ski-models/">advanced materials</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337259240_From_Sensor_Data_to_Coaching_in_Alpine_Skiing_-_A_Software_Design_to_Facilitate_Immediate_Feedback_in_Sports">sensors</a> are due to have have a big impact over the next five years.</p>
<p>For example, in alpine skiing there are systems known as inertial measurement units which use accelerometers, gyroscopes and magnetometers to measures the body’s specific force, angular rate and orientation. This all helps to calculate and capture data about a skier’s pose and movements.</p>
<p>Our research found that such technology could have a big impact on the performance of elite athletes. For example, integrated measuring systems could allow the verification of feedback from professional skiers during training when they report issues with their skis, like when they become shaky or unstable.</p>
<p>For amateurs, sensor-based technology could help make improvements by providing on-slope feedback and <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-35048-2_11">coaching</a> on skiing technique for issues like skidding in turns (and how to avoid it). <a href="https://dlmag.com/become-a-better-skier-with-snowcookie-wearables/#:%7E:text=What%20exactly%20is%20a%20Snowcookie,a%20degree%20of%20inherent%20risk.">Smart wearable sensors</a> measuring skiers’ movement and body position could further increase both safety (by measuring fatigue) and overall experience (by improving skills). </p>
<p>Beyond performance, our experts felt the biggest impact of technology on skiers in resorts would be from smart tracking systems for live information on how busy lifts, routes and restaurants are. Contactless features, such as cashless payments, will also become the norm by 2025. In fact, many resorts might be able to provide almost entirely contactless experiences by then.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An infographic detailing different technologies used in winter sports." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379692/original/file-20210120-13-1gc2qna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379692/original/file-20210120-13-1gc2qna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379692/original/file-20210120-13-1gc2qna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379692/original/file-20210120-13-1gc2qna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379692/original/file-20210120-13-1gc2qna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379692/original/file-20210120-13-1gc2qna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379692/original/file-20210120-13-1gc2qna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our survey showed a range of benefits that technology will have on the future of winter sports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mastercard</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another area of major technical advancement that experts predict to see by 2025 comes in the form of <a href="https://www.fis-ski.com/en/international-ski-federation/apps-gaming/esports-alpine-world-ski-championships-cortina-2021">esports and gaming</a>. Although video games are unlikely to become one of the main drivers of the success of winter sports by 2025, online offers and activities will play a major role in reaching younger generations and people in areas lacking the necessary winter facilities.</p>
<p>In areas like this, simulations will have a significant impact on overall accessibility, according to 43% of our experts. They said that virtual technology will also give people with disabilities a chance to experience the sport. </p>
<p>So digitisation and new technology are providing some reasons for hope in the winter sports industry. There is still a long way to go but our experts believe that if the sector can adapt and innovate, then it will survive and perhaps even prosper in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153479/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mastercard had commissioned the reseach study which is public</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolas Frevel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A panel of winter sports experts told us that pandemic-enforced technological advances are providing hope for the shattered sector.Sascha L. Schmidt, Professor and Director, Center for Sports and Management, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementNicolas Frevel, PhD Candidate, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1468722020-10-22T14:19:53Z2020-10-22T14:19:53ZNot every football club is going under – here’s how some are improving financial results<p>COVID-19 has proven itself a devastating opponent for professional sport around the world. Major events have been cancelled or postponed, and the financial security of many athletes and teams remains bleak.</p>
<p>In football, for example, there are fears that even the top flight clubs in Europe could <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-europe-clubs/europes-top-flight-clubs-face-4-billion-euros-in-lost-revenue-due-to-covid-19-idUKKBN2482JD">lose €4 billion</a> over the next two years. Meanwhile, lower league clubs are said to be <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12083809/coronavirus-football-clubs-at-risk-of-going-bust-without-government-aid-open-letter-warns">facing an existential threat</a>.</p>
<p>The outlook remains worryingly uncertain. When will paying spectators return to the terraces and fill the stadiums again? To what extent will the vital investment of media companies and corporate sponsors – themselves facing pandemic related losses – be reduced? </p>
<p>To begin with, clubs will be concerned with managing short-term financial worries, perhaps by aiming to reduce spending on player transfers and wages. But there is also an urgent need to think about the longer-term implications for economic survival. Our <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340889378_Financial_performance_and_corporate_diversification_strategies_in_professional_football_-_evidence_from_the_English_Premier_League">research</a> indicates that one strategy football clubs should consider is diversification.</p>
<p>The idea behind diversification is simple. Instead of putting all of your financial eggs in one basket, you spread your risk among different economic sectors. </p>
<p>Currently, the fate of most football clubs depends almost entirely on their <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303752242_Europe's_Elite_Football_Financial_Growth_Sporting_Success_Transfer_Investment_and_Private_Majority_Investors">sporting performance</a>. If the team mostly wins, the financial situation improves, and if it mostly loses, the situation gets worse. Individual games can be economically devastating if they mean missing out on qualification for a lucrative tournament or relegation to a lower division. </p>
<p>Risk diversification can at least mitigate these sometimes dramatic effects by expanding either into new products – beyond replica kits and merchandise – or geographic regions.</p>
<p>Some clubs have already begun to explore this strategy. <a href="https://arsenalinnovationlab.com/">Arsenal</a> in the UK, and <a href="https://barcainnovationhub.com/">Barcelona</a> in Spain have set up “innovation hubs”, which collaborate with technology startups, for example, to explore new <a href="https://arsenalinnovationlab.com/startups-unveil-new-fan-experiences-at-arsenal-innovation-lab-demo-day/">digital fan experiences</a> using artificial intelligence and augmented reality. </p>
<p>Others have diversified by building a portfolio across different sports. The <a href="http://www.fenwaysportsmanagement.com/portfolio/">Fenway Sports Group</a> for instance, owners of Liverpool FC and the Boston Red Sox baseball team, is also involved in golf, motor sports and hurling. Recent rumours suggest that Fenway may increase its diversification activities <a href="https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/billy-beane-fsg-liverpool-investment-19093943">even further</a>.</p>
<p>There has also been <a href="https://www.espn.com/esports/story/_/id/17637299/76ers-acquire-esports-teams-dignitas-apex">widespread investment</a> in eSports teams – professional video-game players – which is expected to turn into a <a href="https://newzoo.com/insights/articles/esports-market-revenues-2020-2021-impact-of-covid-19-media-rights-sponsorships-tickets/">US$1.5 billion market by 2023</a>. On a more traditional front, some clubs, including <a href="https://www.boltonwhiteshotel.co.uk/">Bolton Wanderers</a> and <a href="https://www.millenniumhotels.com/en/london/millennium-and-copthorne-hotels-at-chelsea-football-club/">Chelsea</a>, have invested in physical assets such as hotel ownership.</p>
<h2>The international game</h2>
<p>Geographic diversification has been popular too, with an increasingly international outlook in a variety of sports, which has seen the NFL hosting <a href="https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-unveils-dates-times-for-2019-international-games-0ap3000001026723">games in Europe</a> and the Spanish Football Federation planning to stage the <a href="https://en.as.com/en/2019/11/11/football/1573484765_968013.html">Supercup in Saudi Arabia</a>. Many larger clubs have also established office locations overseas, with Juventus <a href="https://www.juventus.com/en/club/hong-kong-branch">setting up in Hong Kong</a> and European champions <a href="https://fcbayern.com/us/news/2016/08/fc-bayern-moves-into-new-madison-avenue-office">Bayern Munich</a> opting for New York. The underlying idea is to reach a broader international fan base, especially in markets where football has not exploited its growth potential yet. </p>
<p>One company, the <a href="https://www.cityfootballgroup.com/our-teams/">City Football Group</a> has taken this international approach even further by building a global portfolio of football clubs, including Manchester City, New York City and Melbourne City. This also opens up new opportunities to transfer players among clubs of the same owners.</p>
<h2>Getting results</h2>
<p>So how do all those diversification activities contribute to the financial performance of a club? To find out, we analysed a 15-year dataset of the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340889378_Financial_performance_and_corporate_diversification_strategies_in_professional_football_-_evidence_from_the_English_Premier_League">English Premier League</a> and found that moving into related business areas improves revenues and profitability. </p>
<p>A prime example is Manchester United. From 2007 to 2013, the club was at its sporting peak, winning five out of seven possible Premier League championships and one UEFA Champions League title. With success on the pitch came an increase in revenue of around <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/271665/revenue-of-manchester-united/">€110 million</a> over the same period. </p>
<p>After Alex Ferguson stepped down as manager in 2013, the team’s performance <a href="https://sportsgazette.co.uk/manchester-uniteds-decline-since-2013-what-do-the-stats-say/">deteriorated significantly</a>. Yet revenues continued to increase and are almost <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/271665/revenue-of-manchester-united/">70% higher</a> today than when Ferguson left. Interest in the club and its products – including a museum, stadium tours, business conferences, a TV channel and an eSports unit – has not declined despite disappointing results on the pitch.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A football balanced on a pile of coins against a financial report backdrop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364737/original/file-20201021-23-16aa23n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364737/original/file-20201021-23-16aa23n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364737/original/file-20201021-23-16aa23n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364737/original/file-20201021-23-16aa23n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364737/original/file-20201021-23-16aa23n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364737/original/file-20201021-23-16aa23n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364737/original/file-20201021-23-16aa23n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Moneyball?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/soccer-ball-on-financial-report-background-143046496">Shutterstock/pogonici</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is important to stress though, that diversification into new business areas works best when it is related to the core business of football. In simple terms, sports clubs are more likely to see success in operating eSports teams than they are in manufacturing, say, high-spec industrial products. The greater the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341959325_Dynamic_managerial_capabilities_firm_resources_and_related_business_diversification_-_Evidence_from_the_English_Premier_League">relatedness of an investment to the core business</a>, the easier it is for sports clubs to fully exploit new income streams.</p>
<p>When it comes to international diversification, the effects are less pronounced. While a moderate degree of internationalisation increases financial performance, extremely high levels of geographical diversification can be detrimental. The Italian club AS Roma, for instance, has been reporting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/ASR.MI/financials">negative net incomes</a> over the past years despite heavily investing abroad. This may be because of the large costs of coordinating international business activities in a range of diverse cultures and economic situations.</p>
<p>Since our data set ends before the outbreak of COVID-19, we should note that the pandemic may have changed the effects of diversification. A club investing in travel services may have suffered, while one investing in eSports may have done well.</p>
<p>Overall, though, our evidence shows that well-planned and well-executed diversification can be an effective insurance mechanism, and could help to ensure the survival of clubs in future economic crises. Unfortunately, there is no golden rule that will work for every team. But sports executives would be well advised to develop a suitable diversification strategy – it’s a tactic that could help ensure the financial survival of their club.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Diversification into related businesses can provide a firmer financial footing.Sascha L. Schmidt, Professor and Director, Center for Sports and Management, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementFlorian Holzmayer, Researcher, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementJohannes Fühner, PhD Candidate, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1386852020-05-15T10:09:47Z2020-05-15T10:09:47ZAs football returns in empty stadiums, four graphs show how home advantage disappears<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335353/original/file-20200515-138644-26g2cf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/milano-italy-23th-october-2019-uefa-1609493932">Shutterstock / Marco Canoniero</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For millions of football fans, we’ve had nothing but repeats to watch to get our fix in recent months. But starting from May 16, elite European football kicks off, courtesy of the German Bundesliga. But there will be a few differences. </p>
<p>Given that there will be a packed schedule of matches to finish before the end of July, <a href="https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/coronavirus-bundesliga-five-substitutions-relegation-season/1e2sjn7de7jlh1tepdom41ibts">teams can make five substitutions</a> rather than the normal three. But the most obvious difference will be that these matches will take place without spectators. Games will be held in empty, cavernous stadiums. These will not be neutral venues, as has been proposed for completing the English Premier League, but research shows empty grounds can effectively mean a removal of “home” advantage.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJSMS-05-2017-088/full/html">few</a> <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/dp8105.pdf">studies</a> show that home fans can influence the outcome of football matches through the pressure they put on the referee. There is evidence, for example, that referees award more injury time when the home team is losing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/0034653053970267">and less when the home team is winning</a>, systematically shortening or lengthening the game to favour the home team, and this is affected by how many fans are present.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335355/original/file-20200515-138620-us4t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335355/original/file-20200515-138620-us4t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335355/original/file-20200515-138620-us4t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335355/original/file-20200515-138620-us4t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335355/original/file-20200515-138620-us4t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335355/original/file-20200515-138620-us4t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335355/original/file-20200515-138620-us4t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Home advantage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dortmund-germany-december-10-2015-fans-351446033">Ververidis Vasilis / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most results on the effects of fans are based on changes in a few hundred or thousand fans from one match to the next. We are among a few sports economists to have studied <a href="https://www.carlsingletoneconomics.com/uploads/4/2/3/0/42306545/closeddoors_reade_singleton.pdf">the effect of playing in closed stadiums</a>.</p>
<p>Historically, most closed doors matches have been imposed on clubs and their fans as a punishment – for <a href="https://www.football365.com/news/feature-seven-big-games-to-have-been-played-behind-closed-doors-coronavirus">violence</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/29/bulgaria-ordered-to-play-next-two-matches-behind-closed-doors-over-england-racism">racist abuse</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/49910626">corruption</a>. Studying the history of European football since the second world war, we found 191 closed doors matches across the top Italian and French leagues, and in European club competitions. We found none in the English and German top leagues, and only one in Spain’s La Liga. Most of these matches were after 2002.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335178/original/file-20200514-77239-148vatu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of closed door matches in European football by competition and season since 2002/03.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Singleton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have found that the considerable home advantage in football is on average almost entirely wiped out in closed doors matches. Historically, home teams win 46% of the time in matches with fans, but only 36% of the time when there are no fans. The away team wins 26% of the time with fans, and 34% without fans.</p>
<p>These differences are primarily because the home team scores fewer goals when there aren’t any fans. The chart below shows the average differences between matches with fans and without them since 2002, with negative values implying that an outcome was smaller or happened less often in closed doors matches, and vice versa for a positive value.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335179/original/file-20200514-77230-18g7krq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The outcomes in closed doors matches vs in all others since the beginning of the 2002-03 European football season. Bands show 95% confidence intervals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Singleton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reasons for the difference</h2>
<p>The data suggests at least two reasons for the loss of home advantage. The first is that away teams get punished differently by the referee. Small changes in the number of fans in the stadium normally have small effects. But as the graph below shows, we estimate that an away team would receive 0.5 fewer yellow cards when playing behind closed doors (the X on the diagram), whereas the effect of reducing a specific stadium’s 25,000 crowd down to a 6,000 one is a mere 0.05 of a card (black line on diagram). Closed door matches have a disproportionate and strong effect on yellow cards.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335184/original/file-20200514-77276-qyhv3h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The estimated effects on how many yellow cards are awarded to the away team, depending on how many fans are present.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Singleton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second possible reason is that less injury time is awarded in matches played behind closed doors. Though, in the small sample of matches without fans we have studied so far, this difference is generally not statistically significant.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335188/original/file-20200514-77247-1l95pi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Second half injury time awarded in closed doors matches vs in all others since the beginning of the 2002-03 European football season. Bands show 95% confidence intervals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Singleton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To be clear, we are not accusing professional football referees of being consciously biased. Indeed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12106">research has shown</a> that some of the biases they exhibit are subconscious, reflecting the highly pressurised environment that they must make tight calls in. Hence, the introduction of technology like the infamous VAR is an attempt to make the game more fair.</p>
<p>Fans turn up hoping to see their team win, and so, whatever causes it, there is <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/002205103771800004">an argument</a> that some amount of home advantage is a good thing. It draws higher crowds and maintains their interest - only the diehards pay to watch their team lose every week.</p>
<h2>A different game</h2>
<p>Ultimately, our research suggests that professional football over the coming months is likely to be substantially different – not just the echoes of empty stadiums but in measurable outcomes as well. We can expect home teams to win less often. Teams with more home matches than away matches remaining in the current season might not do as well as they otherwise would have done, affecting championships, promotion and relegation. </p>
<p>The evidence also suggests that the current <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52598311">wrangling among the English Premier League’s clubs</a>, about playing their remaining matches at neutral venues, is based on a mistaken notion that home advantage wouldn’t disappear if they play some of their remaining matches in their own empty stadiums.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Singleton has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (UK) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominik Schreyer and James Reade do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The findings of one of the few studies into closed door matches.Carl Singleton, Lecturer in Economics, University of ReadingDominik Schreyer, Assistant Professor of Sports Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementJames Reade, Associate Professor of Economics, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792792017-06-15T05:36:14Z2017-06-15T05:36:14ZHow world cities moving forward on climate change leave the US President behind<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173625/original/file-20170613-1905-17oofn5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A partial map of all the cities which pledge to fight climate change, with or without Donald Trump. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.globalcovenantofmayors.org/">Global Convenant of Mayors/Google Earth</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When US President <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/01/politics/trump-paris-climate-decision/index.html">Donald Trump announced</a> that his country would be pulling out of the Paris agreement, <a href="http://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/trump-paris-climate-change-agreement-reaction/">the immediate reaction across the globe</a> was one of despair, anger and helplessness. </p>
<p>The Paris agreement is widely seen as the last opportunity for the world to unite and limit the increase in global temperature to <strong>2 degrees Celsius</strong>. How can this international agreement remain relevant when <a href="http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/who-are-the-worlds-biggest-polluters?articleId=USRTXRKSI">the world’s second-largest polluter</a> chooses to remain outside its ambit and is not willing to be held responsible? </p>
<p>This wasn’t the first time that the United States has reneged on a climate deal. George W. Bush’s government <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/8422343/ns/politics/t/bush-kyoto-treaty-would-have-hurt-economy/">had refused</a> to ratify the Kyoto Protocol (1997), which proved to be the death knell for the agreement and international cooperation at large. An entire decade was wasted with countries sparring over who was really responsible for the mess we found ourselves in, until Paris.</p>
<p>But 20 years is a long time, and between Kyoto and Paris, we find ourselves living in a completely different geopolitical and economic global framework.</p>
<p>The good news is that this time around, there might be reasons to not despair. Within the climate diplomacy framework, cities led by powerful mayors are effectively asserting themselves like nation-states and showing themselves willing to act collectively.</p>
<h2>City coalition for climate</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/01/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord">Speaking at the press conference</a> about the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement, President Trump declared that he was “elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris. Within minutes of his speech, the mayor of Pittsburgh <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/opinion/the-mayors-of-pittsburgh-and-paris-we-have-our-own-climate-deal.html">issued a statement</a> reaffirming the city’s commitment to the Paris agreement. </p>
<p>He issued an <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2017-06-02/pittsburgh-to-trump-you-dont-speak-for-us-on-climate">executive order</a> committing his city to the accord by continuing efforts to end the use of landfills, reduce energy consumption by half and develop a fossil fuel-free fleet of city vehicles. </p>
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<p>Mayor Bill Peduto was not alone. All in all, <a href="https://medium.com/@ClimateMayors/climate-mayors-commit-to-adopt-honor-and-uphold-paris-climate-agreement-goals-ba566e260097">175 mayors</a> (and counting) of the biggest cities across the country, cutting across party lines and representing 51 million Americans, reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris agreement.</p>
<p>On social media, #wearestillin quickly became viral while US mayors pledged their commitment to climate change on <a href="http://wearestillin.com">an eponymous website</a> listing all supportive cities.</p>
<p>Since Trump’s decision to pull out, US states have jumped in. On June 6, <a href="http://www.rafu.com/2017/06/hawaii-becomes-first-state-to-sign-law-aligning-with-paris-agreement/">Hawaii</a> enacted legislation in support of its Paris commitments. The same day, California independently signed an <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-california-agree-joint-fight-against-climate-change/a-39193649">accord</a> with Germany, with the aim of empowering local communities to combat climate change. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/06/12/mayors-lead-the-global-response-to-trump-s-pull-out-of-the-paris-agreement">Mayors from around the world reacted</a>, pledging their support for the Paris agreement, often <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/01/us/us-buildings-light-up-green-paris-accord-trnd/index.html">adorning their cities’ monuments with green lights</a>. </p>
<h2>Powerful, independent cities</h2>
<p>This isn’t the first time that cities have found themselves at the centre stage of international politics. In fact, historically, most global cities have preceded their respective nation-states by over <a href="https://books.google.de/books?id=1BdgAwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false">5,000 years</a>. But by the late 19th century, when the concept of the <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/41887235?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Westphalian sovereign</a> nation-state developed in modern international relations, and countries became the main actors on the diplomatic stage, the political clout of cities diminished.</p>
<p>Over the last decade, this has changed significantly. For starters, some cities have grown so big that by virtue of their economic might, they’re now able to assert themselves independently. New York’s GDP (US$1.45 trillion) is <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/economic-output-if-states-were-countries-california-would-be-france-467614">larger</a> than that of Spain (US$1.1 trillion) or South Korea (US$1.38 trillion). </p>
<p>São Paulo state in Brazil is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/10/forget-the-nation-state-cities-will-transform-the-way-we-conduct-foreign-affairs/">wealthier</a> than Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia combined, and Guangdong in China is richer than Russia or Mexico. </p>
<p>Most big cities in the world have also been able to organise themselves under a common international forum, which only further enhances their bargaining power.
<a href="http://www.iclei.org/">Local Governments for Sustainability</a> (ICLEI), <a href="https://www.uclg.org/">United Cities and Local Governments</a> (UCLG) or the <a href="http://www.c40.org/">Cities Climate Leadership Group</a> (C40) are a few such examples.</p>
<p>These hybrid and often complex networks have been particularly successful in fostering innovative modes of cooperation between the private sector and cities. </p>
<p>The private insurance industry is working with several cities across the world to <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2013/12/business-case-building-climate-resilience">identify and quantify risks</a> as well as design mitigation strategies and post-disaster financing instruments. It’s a win-win situation for both parties as the insurance industry helps develop cities’ climate resilience and, in return, gains access to new markets.</p>
<h2>City diplomacy</h2>
<p>Former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg is a strong proponent of this form of city diplomacy. He had once cheekily <a href="http://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/087-12/mayor-bloomberg-launches-new-c40-global-networks-support-sustainable-policy-generate">remarked</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We’re the level of government closest to the majority of the world’s people. We’re directly responsible for their well-being and their futures. So while nations talk, but too often drag their heels, cities act.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>True to his word, within a few hours of President Trump’s press conference, Bloomberg had managed to organise a coalition through the <a href="http://www.c40.org/">Cities Climate Leadership Group</a> (C40), which he chairs.</p>
<p>On June 2 2017, addressing a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/michael-bloomberg-meets-emmanuel-macron-drive-honour-paris-climate/">joint press conference</a> with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace, Bloomberg assured the international community that the US will meet its Paris commitment, and through a partnership among cities, states, and businesses, will seek to remain part of the Paris agreement. </p>
<p>He went a step further and pledged US$15 million, the amount that the Bonn-based secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) stands to lose as a result of Washington’s decision to pull out of the deal. </p>
<p>Accepting Bloomberg’s proposal, Christina Figueres of the UNFCCC has even promised to evolve a method for cities to be able to independently declare their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), a responsibility earlier reserved only for countries in the Paris agreement.</p>
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<p>City leaders have also been active members of the 2016-founded <a href="http://www.globalcovenantofmayors.org/">Global covenant of mayors for climate and energy</a>, an international alliance of mayors grouping 7,450 cities across the world dedicated to fighting climate change. </p>
<p>President Trump’s decision to pull out of the deal seems to have inspired action not just in American cities but also in the developing world. </p>
<h2>The cost of climate change</h2>
<p>Last week, India <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/world-doesnt-need-us-lead-climate-change-action-china-will/">announced</a> that it does not plan to build any new coal plants after 2022. It has also committed to generating 57% of its power through renewable sources by 2027, far exceeding its earlier target and three years before schedule. </p>
<p>Aided by a favourable market and falling technology costs, countries such as India and China are keen to assume global leadership.</p>
<p>Indian mayors are also particularly conscious of the financial cost of climate change. The 2015 floods that hit the southern state of Tamil Nadu and particularly the city of Chennai, caused a <a href="https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/chennai-floods-triggered-a-3-billion-loss-to-the-indian-economy/">US$3 billion loss to the Indian economy</a>. Chennai is now seeking to learn resilience strategies from other Indian cities that have faced similar disasters and adapted successfully.</p>
<p>One of them is Surat, in Gujarat, on the west coast of India. The industrial, fast-growing town has been <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/chennai-floods-a-smart-city-must-also-be-a-resilient-city/">severely affected</a> by climate change. In the last decade, Surat has experienced over 23 floods as well as an outbreak of plague in 1994. </p>
<p>But the <a href="http://citiscope.org/story/2015/what-surat-learned-preventable-flood">town has made great strides</a> towards resilience. From building early warning response systems, mapping communities vulnerable to flooding, setting up a system of evacuation shelters, securing the electricity grid, preventing vector-borne diseases and groundwater management programs, Surat has been able to drastically reduce the effects of climate change-induced disasters. </p>
<p>Globally, since 2000, climate change disasters are estimated to have cost a whopping <a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/blog/private-sectors-role-climate-change/">US$2.5 trillion</a>. The case for clean energy, resilience and sustainability is increasingly an economic one rather than purely environmental.</p>
<h2>Climate is cities’ responsibility</h2>
<p>Cities have an added incentive and responsibility to act before it’s too late. Almost all of the world’s cities are dealing with one or more of the harmful effects of climate change. After all, 90% of the world’s urban areas are in proximity to coastal land, which puts most cities at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels.
Cities also consume <a href="http://www.c40.org/">⅔ of the world’s energy</a> and are responsible for over 70% of global CO² emissions. </p>
<p>It is critical that cities have plans in place to deal with climate change and its effects, develop resilient infrastructure and have contingency plans for disaster recovery. </p>
<p>Former US president <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/31/fact-sheet-us-reports-its-2025-emissions-target-unfccc">Barack Obama had committed</a> to reducing US greenhouse gas emissions 26% to 28% by 2025, from their 2005 levels. </p>
<p>If the enthusiasm of the mayors over the last few weeks is anything to go by, President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris agreement only seems to have reinvigorated efforts, strengthened resolve and motivated local leadership to redouble efforts to tackle climate change. <a href="https://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/06/hundreds-of-mayors-governors-ceos-and-others-pledge-u-s-commitment-to-paris-climate-agreement/">Some US mayors </a> are even confident of bettering Obama’s commitment. </p>
<p>If cities, states, businesses, and civil society are able to work together and tap into networks of other cities while maintaining the right kind of momentum, Trump pulling the US out of the Paris deal might just turn out to be a blessing in disguise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nandan Sharalaya is funded by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the Institute for Industrial Organization at WHU, Otto Beisheim School of Management. </span></em></p>Weeks after Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement, powerful US cities are asserting themselves like nation-states to maintain the pact made with the world to help save the planet.Nandan Sharalaya, German Chancellor Fellow, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.