tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/barack-obama-81/articlesBarack Obama – The Conversation2024-03-21T17:28:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258672024-03-21T17:28:49Z2024-03-21T17:28:49ZEven presidents need a touch of madness − in March<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582891/original/file-20240319-8644-3673sk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3735%2C2735&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Then-Vice President Joe Biden at the NCAA men's Final Four semifinal between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Syracuse Orange on April 2, 2016, in Houston. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-joe-biden-poses-for-a-picture-with-syracuse-news-photo/518788354?adppopup=true">Streeter Lecka/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Why would a president faced with lingering inflation at home and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, among other problems, take time out to participate in the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket">annual sports fan’s ritual of March Madness</a>? </p>
<p>The “madness” began this year on March 17, when a committee appointed by the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2024-03-17/ncaa-tournament-bracket-revealed-east-region">NCAA announced the field</a> of 68 college basketball teams in each of two divisions – one for men and one for women – selected to compete for a national championship. The teams are divided into four brackets and seeded from 1 to 16, from best to worst, according to the judgment of the committee. The last two surviving men’s teams play on April 8 in the championship game, and the women’s surviving teams finish on April 7. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1223099/bracket-march-madness-intention/">Tens of millions</a> of college basketball fans, including the president if he chooses, take part in the ritual of filling out brackets, a task that involves trying to predict the winning teams starting with the first round of games. </p>
<p>It’s nearly impossible for anyone to predict the winner of every game. The chance of filling out a perfect bracket has been estimated to be <a href="https://www.sdsu.edu/news/2024/03/march-madness-a-statisticians-guide-for-beating-1-in-a-quintillion-odds-of-the-perfect-bracket">1 in 147 trillion</a> attempts. </p>
<p>Following in the footsteps of <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4541434-obama-unveils-march-madness-brackets/">former President Barack Obama</a>, President Joe Biden has filled out brackets for the 2024 NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. This year, Biden is playing it safe by choosing <a href="https://twitter.com/potus/status/1770512056321548427?s=51&t=5FrDEU6h5JiRyqzLwoB_2Q">the No. 1 seeds in both tournaments to win the national championship</a>: South Carolina in the women’s bracket and UConn in the men’s. </p>
<p>Biden’s predictions are bound to improve from last year. That’s when his top pick to win the men’s tournament, the No. 2-seeded University of Arizona, was upset in the first round <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3904252-bidens-march-madness-bracket-is-already-busted/">by Princeton University</a>. </p>
<p>Biden may be participating in March Madness because he, like other presidents, enjoys the competitive nature of sports. And sports allow presidents to “cast a positive image of their presidency and speak to audiences they might not be able to reach <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">any other way</a>,” as journalist Chris Cillizza has written. In this case, Biden is taking the opportunity to carry on like a regular fan.</p>
<p>Yet, as my co-author <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_R._Morris">Tom Morris</a> and I observe in our research for a book on the relationship between sports and politics, presidential involvement in sporting events offers both risks and rewards. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holding a team jersey with the name 'Obama' on it, standing in front of a large group of men in suits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Barack Obama accepts a team jersey at the White House on May 11, 2009, from the North Carolina Tar Heels, the 2009 NCAA Division I national champions, whom Obama picked to win in his March Madness bracket.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/university-of-north-carolina-mens-basketball-head-coach-roy-news-photo/87066338?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A sports fan, not a politician</h2>
<p>Presidents have been participating in sporting events at least since April 14, 1910, when William Howard Taft threw a <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/baseball/photoessay/02.html">ceremonial first pitch</a> at the Washington Senators baseball game on opening day. And presidents routinely invite championship teams to the White House to publicly acknowledge their accomplishments.</p>
<p>But Obama, an avid basketball fan, was the first president to complete an NCAA Tournament bracket. The idea emerged near the end of the 2008 presidential campaign, when ESPN reporter <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">Andy Katz suggested to Obama</a>, “If you win, how about I come to the White House and we do an NCAA Tournament bracket.” </p>
<p>Obama agreed. After winning the 2008 presidential election, he followed through. </p>
<p>On March 18, 2009, Katz interviewed Obama about his selections on ESPN’s show “SportsCenter.” According to Katz, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/ncaatourney09/news/story?id=3991183">Obama took the job seriously</a>: “President Obama made his picks as a sports fan, not as a politician. He was knowledgeable about the teams and was even up to date on the latest injuries involving the contenders. … It was clear that he enjoyed filling out his bracket like the rest of America.” </p>
<p>Obama’s supporters cheered his participation in March Madness, while some <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2011/03/19/134599376/obama-trash-talked-for-doing-espn-brackets-during-multiple-crises">opponents criticized the move</a> as a frivolous distraction. The president surely must have better things to do; why take the NCAA Tournament so seriously? </p>
<p>But by failing to complete a bracket for the women’s tournament, Obama invited criticism that he was not taking women’s basketball seriously enough. </p>
<p>USA Today columnist <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2009/0327/ncaa-snub-obama-doesnt-pick-womens-basketball-teams">Christine Brennan</a> faulted Obama: “As the father of two athletic daughters, President Obama should know all about the importance of sports for women and girls.” </p>
<p>From that point on, Obama completed brackets for both the men’s and women’s tournaments. He was <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2010/03/17/president-picks-his-favorites-2010-ncaa-basketball-tournament">interviewed</a> about his choices for both tournaments on ESPN.</p>
<p>At least one of Obama’s brackets <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/324156-obama-continues-tradition-of-filling-out-march-madness-brackets/">is in the Smithsonian</a>.</p>
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<h2>Choosing to win</h2>
<p>During the 2012 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Mitt Romney drew a contrast with Obama by choosing not to fill out a bracket. <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/108647-romney-not-plugged-in-to-march-madness/">Romney announced</a>: “I’m not plugged in well enough this year to do that.”</p>
<p>Although Obama defeated Romney in the election, Romney ultimately proved to be a better predictor of NCAA Tournament basketball games. </p>
<p>Acting as a mere citizen three years later, Romney participated in the ESPN Tournament Challenge with what the network called an “<a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/page/instantawesome-RomneyBracket-150407/mitt-romney-march-madness-bracket-was-astoundingly-good">astounding success</a>.” He predicted all of the Final Four teams in the men’s tournament, placing himself in the top 1% of people who filled out the bracket and earning the headline, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/romney-obama-ncaa-championship-bracket-duke-wisconsin-116681">“Romney bracket crushes Obama’s</a>.” </p>
<p>Evaluating Obama’s predictions became a regular part of March Madness. Analysts not only critiqued Obama’s <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/president-obama-is-surprisingly-bad-at-picking-march-madness-brackets-110119/">relatively poor track record</a> in predicting outcomes. They also considered how those choices reflected his effort to connect with people.</p>
<p>Assessing Obama’s record over eight years, Sports Illustrated concluded: “President Obama used basketball as a way to <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2016/03/16/barack-obama-ncaa-tournament-bracket-march-madness">bond with the American people</a> but he has had ups and downs in making his NCAA tournament picks.” </p>
<h2>No March Madness for Trump</h2>
<p>After he left office, Obama the basketball enthusiast continued to fill out NCAA men’s and women’s tournament brackets. Meanwhile, his successor, President Donald Trump, declined ESPN’s invitation to complete what has been referred to as the “presidential bracket.” </p>
<p>Trump might have been too busy, disinterested in basketball or unwilling <a href="https://www.salon.com/2017/03/18/field-of-one-what-donald-trumps-decision-not-to-fill-out-a-bracket-says-about-his-media-strategy/">to associate himself with Obama</a>. Nonetheless, Trump left open the possibility of a future engagement with sports. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/trump-declines-espn-invite-to-fill-out-ncaa-bracket-on-air/">And he did correctly predict the Super Bowl winner in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>White House spokesperson <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/01/08/espn-isnt-expecting-to-interview-trump-during-the-college-football-championship-game/">Hope Hicks announced</a>: “We look forward to working with ESPN on another opportunity in the near future.”</p>
<h2>Enjoying the madness</h2>
<p>Biden has returned to Obama’s practice, though not with the same fervor or enthusiasm. In 2023, Biden submitted his brackets just a few minutes before the <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/march-madness-president-joe-biden-sneaks-in-ncaa-tournament-brackets-loses-champion-arizona-on-day-1-180322281.html">start of the first game</a>. </p>
<p>Unlike Obama, who routinely participated in pickup games and had a basketball court installed <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">on the White House grounds</a> so he could practice shooting, Biden is less enamored of basketball. After all, he grew up playing baseball and was a star receiver for <a href="https://www.thedp.com/article/2020/08/joe-biden-penn-athletics-football-archmere-2020-election-delaware">his high school football team</a>.</p>
<p>When it comes to filling out NCAA brackets, presidents may be playing politics – or they may just be taking time to enjoy the madness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Palazzolo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Filling out brackets for the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments allows a president to be just a regular Joe. Including Joe Biden.Daniel Palazzolo, Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224372024-02-01T18:09:43Z2024-02-01T18:09:43ZWhy Taylor Swift is an antihero to the GOP − but Democrats should know all too well that her endorsement won’t mean it’s all over now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572838/original/file-20240201-29-3iozq0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5973%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Travis Kelce celebrates with Taylor Swift on Jan. 28, 2024, after the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC championship game.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/travis-kelce-of-the-kansas-city-chiefs-celebrates-with-news-photo/1970250651?adppopup=true">Patrick Smith/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A pop <a href="https://people.com/travis-kelce-reveals-when-he-taylor-swift-romance-first-began-8557241">icon falling for one of the NFL’s preeminent superstars</a> may seem like a slice of Americana – a scene from a small-town high school magnified by a factor of 10 million. </p>
<p>But this is America in 2024 so, of course, nothing magical stays that way. </p>
<p>To be clear, public opinion data suggests that most Americans think Taylor Swift is <a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/taylor-swift-the-nfl/">good for the NFL</a>. But with her beau Travis Kelce’s Kansas City Chiefs heading to a fourth Super Bowl in five years, and with Swift herself reportedly preparing for a journey <a href="https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/sports/nfl/taylor-swift-super-bowl-chiefs-tokyo-japan-concert-report/3435863/">across the globe</a> to cheer him on in the big game, the right-wing talk machine has gone into overdrive.</p>
<p>Fox News host <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/10/pentagon-taylor-swift-fox-00134866">Jesse Watters suggested</a> that Swift may be a Pentagon asset used to combat online misinformation. Former GOP presidential candidate <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/01/29/vivek-ramaswamy-says-super-bowl-could-be-rigged-to-boost-taylor-swift-and-biden/">Vivek Ramaswamy tweeted</a> that he thinks Swift and Kelce are being artificially propped up by the media pending an upcoming Swift endorsement of Joe Biden. OAN referred to the couple as a “<a href="https://www.mediaite.com/media/oan-host-rails-against-americas-love-for-football-in-tirade-over-travis-kelce-and-taylor-swift-psy-op/">Massive Super Bowl Psy-op</a>,” a brainwashing campaign designed to indoctrinate citizens to an elite agenda and away from religion.</p>
<p>The idea that the Swift-Kelce romance is some sort of deep-state plot is perhaps gaining some traction in far-right circles because it lines up with other right-wing conspiracy theories and the right’s broader agenda. </p>
<h2>Swift’s NFL fandom</h2>
<p>Swift has <a href="https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-person-of-the-year-and-political-influencer-208631">endorsed Democrats</a> in the past, including Joe Biden in 2020. Kelce, while not politically outspoken, was featured in a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2023/10/02/travis-kelce-promotes-flu-covid-19-shots-pfizer/71033013007/">Pfizer ad</a> touting the COVID-19 vaccine. </p>
<p>Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe, without evidence, that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/conspiratorial-thinking-polarization-america-united-kingdom/672726/">a secret group of rulers is controlling the world</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/23/gop-voters-vaccines-poll-00117125">that vaccines cause autism</a>. While there isn’t public opinion data yet on the theories from Fox News and the right-wing echo chamber that the Swift-Kelce romance is an elaborate left-wing scheme, it contains elements of similar conspiracies for which partisan splits exist.</p>
<p>And opinions on Swift herself are similarly polarized. The singer is viewed favorably among virtually all groups in America, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/taylor-swift-transcends-americas-political-divides-barely-rcna125908">although Republicans</a> are the only group in which as many members dislike Swift as like her.</p>
<p>Taylor Swift has brought a unique element to NFL fandom. I haven’t seen fans of my hometown Buffalo Bills <a href="https://twitter.com/LavenderKelce/status/1749147389728784475">make signs</a> denigrating a pop star since they thought Jon Bon Jovi wanted to buy the team and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/bills-to-toronto-concerns-raised-by-documents-is-buffalo-being-played/">move it to Toronto</a> in 2014.</p>
<p>Yet, <a href="https://library.park.edu/scholarsatwork/matthewharris">as a political scientist</a>, I know it’s an open question whether any of this matters politically.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue blazer, white shirt and rep tie gestures with open hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572840/original/file-20240201-25-7rtsex.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Fox News host Jesse Watters has speculated, without evidence, that Swift may be a Pentagon asset.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/host-jesse-watters-as-jesse-watters-primetime-debuts-on-fox-news-photo/1552264944?adppopup=true">Roy Rochlin/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Oprah, Obama and celebrity endorsements</h2>
<p>In the background of these conspiracy theories is the possibility that Taylor Swift could <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/us/politics/biden-trump-election-taylor-swift.html">endorse Joe Biden</a>. The Trump campaign is reportedly thinking about such a possibility, with allies talking behind the scenes about a <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-more-popular-taylor-swift-maga-biden-1234956829/">“holy war”</a> against Swift, brainstorming ways of painting her as a left-wing celebrity advancing an elite Democratic agenda.</p>
<p>But how much would such an endorsement matter? </p>
<p>In political science literature, a hallmark case of the power of celebrity endorsements is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jleo/ewr031">Oprah Winfrey’s 2008 backing of Barack Obama</a>. Winfrey’s endorsement occurred during a primary in which he was taking on a more well-known opponent, Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>Winfrey’s endorsement, wrote the authors of a prominent study of the case, led participants in the study “to see Obama as more likely to win the nomination and to say that they would be more likely to vote for him.” In other words, it helped advance public perceptions of Obama’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161208321948">viability as a candidate</a>.</p>
<p>A Swift endorsement of Biden would be different. </p>
<p>Swifties are <a href="https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-person-of-the-year-and-political-influencer-208631">largely suburban and young</a>. Almost <a href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/instant-intel/taylor-swift-fandom-demographic">half are millennials</a>, and over 10% belong to Gen Z. They represent a slice of the youth vote that candidates have attempted to court for decades, and the <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017f-bcf4-d17b-a1ff-bef5e8a70000">suburbs are increasingly a battleground</a> in the country’s urban-rural divide. A Swift Instagram post in 2023 helped lead to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/22/1201183160/taylor-swift-instagram-voter-registration">35,000 new voter registrations</a> – and her ability to generate funds could also be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/us/politics/biden-trump-election-taylor-swift.html">invaluable to Biden</a>. </p>
<p>But an Oprah-like effect is less likely for a Swift endorsement of Biden, who is running as an incumbent without a serious primary challenger and his status as the Democratic nominee is certain.</p>
<p>Further, polling demonstrates that the effect of a Swift endorsement could be essentially <a href="https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/18-of-voters-more-likely-to-back-taylor-swift-endorsed-presidential-candidate-poll-shows-2024-election-voting-ballot-biden-trump-white-house-politics-travis-kelce-kansas-city-chiefs">a net wash</a>, with 18% of the public saying they’d be more likely to support a Swift-backed candidate and 17% saying they would be less likely to support Swift’s favored choice. </p>
<p>Even those numbers might be affected by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-013-9238-0">partisan-motivated reasoning</a>, where a person’s party identification colors their perceptions of information. Swift’s prior backing of Democrats and perceived liberalism might cause her supporters and detractors to use polling questions asking about a potential Swift endorsement to express support or disfavor of her, regardless of how her endorsement would actually influence their choice. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue blazer, blue tie and white shirt in front of an American flag, holding his right hand in a fist." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572842/original/file-20240201-23-hzjgww.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Swift endorsement, if it comes, could be less important than Donald Trump’s response to that endorsement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-s-president-news-photo/1965960388?adppopup=true">David Becker/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Not just a love story</h2>
<p>Essentially, a Swift endorsement might matter at the margins, but there are many, many other factors at play in a general election. That’s especially true in an election between two men who have both served as commander in chief, a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/16/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office/">rarity in American politics</a>.</p>
<p>A Swift endorsement, then, is perhaps less important in and of itself than Donald Trump’s response to a Swift endorsement of Biden. </p>
<p>Public opinion polling in the wake of Trump’s Access Hollywood remarks in 2016 showed that majorities of both women and men believed Trump had little or no <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/04/trump-respect-for-women/">respect for women</a>. But Trump actually improved his numbers among <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">women voters in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>A Swift endorsement of Biden could bring out some of Trump’s worst impulses. Perhaps the effect of his response on how voters view him could be more important than her endorsement of Biden.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The idea that the Swift-Kelce romance is some sort of deep-state plot is perhaps gaining traction in far-right circles because it lines up with the political right’s broader agenda and beliefs.Matt Harris, Associate Professor of Political Science, Park UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224102024-01-31T14:13:19Z2024-01-31T14:13:19ZMiddle East conflict: Joe Biden must weigh the risks of using force in an election year<p>The recent <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/28/politics/us-troops-drone-attack-jordan/index.html">drone attack</a> that killed three US soldiers has placed Joe Biden’s handling of the conflict in the Middle East under renewed scrutiny. Under pressure from critics demanding a hard-hitting response, the president has vowed to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/28/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-attack-on-u-s-service-members-in-northeastern-jordan-near-the-syria-border/">“hold all those responsible to account”</a>.</p>
<p>But using force in an election year is fraught with political risk.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html">Recent polls</a> suggests the US public is divided about the Gaza conflict. According to a poll last month, 39% of voters favour a continuation of Israel’s military campaign, while 44% say that Israel should stop to avoid mounting civilian casualties. <a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_Vow57W6.pdf">Another poll</a> suggests that the sympathies of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are evenly split between Israel and the Palestinians.</p>
<p>Crucially, 57% of voters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html">disapprove</a> of the president’s handling of the war. This sentiment is particularly strong among younger voters and Democrats, upon whom Biden’s hopes for reelection may depend. </p>
<p>Biden’s Republican opponents have also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/us/politics/biden-iran-drone-strike.html#:%7E:text=President%20Biden%20has%20carefully%20calibrated,killed%20three%20American%20service%20members.">lined up to lambast</a> him. Donald Trump, who looks all but certain to secure his party’s nomination for November’s presidential election, <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/donald-trump-joe-biden-us-drone-strike-iran-world-war-three-b1135418.html">attributed the recent attack</a> to Biden’s “weakness and surrender” while Nikki Haley, Trump’s only remaining Republican challenger, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/us/politics/haley-iran-drone-strike.html">suggested that</a> the US should “go after” Iran’s military leaders.</p>
<p>Facing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/29/biden-attacks-iran-mideast/">criticism</a> on all sides, the ideal <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/us/politics/us-biden-iran-drone-response.html">solution</a> for Biden is likely to be one that satisfies public demands to “do something” without alienating his base or provoking a widening of the war.</p>
<h2>Balancing risks</h2>
<p>Biden’s challenge is a familiar one. As I show in <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/war-on-the-ballot/9780231209656">my recent book</a>, presidents throughout history have taken political considerations into account when making decisions about war and peace. As both commander-in-chief and holder of the highest elected US office, presidents must balance the competing interests of national security and political survival.</p>
<p>Usually, that results in a degree of caution. Since voters bear the brunt of the human and financial costs of war, they tend not to reward incumbents who recklessly engage in conflict. So presidents have good political reasons to think twice before putting troops in harm’s way. As former president George W. Bush <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/03/20060301-3.html">once joked to troops</a> in the Middle East: “You don’t run for office in a democracy and say, ‘Please vote for me, I promise you war.’”</p>
<p>But the strength of this kind of democratic constraint can <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691164984/war-and-democratic-constraint">vary across contexts</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/reality-asserts-itself-public-opinion-on-iraq-and-the-elasticity-of-reality/2EC85066D94345C881A4ECD0EBB29848">over time</a>. <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01FKU1IIC?ie=UTF8&linkCode=gs2&creativeASIN=B01FKU1IIC&tag=slate01-21&camp=1789">Mounting casualties</a> tend to erode support for lengthy commitments, but shocking events or provocations like those that took place over the weekend can also lead to a public demand for <a href="https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:7f9516c8-ee8e-4368-a96b-f45553e277d3/download_file?file_format=application%2Fpdf&safe_filename=Pelican_2021_Justice_intuitions_and.pdf&type_of_work=Thesis">retribution</a>.</p>
<h2>Lessons from history</h2>
<p>We have been here before. Almost exactly four years ago, Trump authorised the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a senior Iranian military commander, apparently motivated in part by a desire to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/amid-confusion-and-contradictions-trump-white-house-stumbles-in-initial-public-response-to-soleimanis-killing/2020/01/07/61c9242e-3174-11ea-a053-dc6d944ba776_story.html">appear tough</a> in an election year. Trump then decided to de-escalate, declining to respond militarily for attacks on bases housing US troops in Iraq. It was a sign that his appetite for a direct conflict with Iran was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/amid-confusion-and-contradictions-trump-white-house-stumbles-in-initial-public-response-to-soleimanis-killing/2020/01/07/61c9242e-3174-11ea-a053-dc6d944ba776_story.html">moderated</a> by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13569775.2022.2029239">similar political realities</a> that now face his successor.</p>
<p>Trump’s recent criticism of Biden’s policies – including <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/28/donald-trump-brink-world-war-three/">his claim</a> on social media that “this attack would NEVER have happened if I was president, not even a chance” – conveniently fails to mention this. But it is the kind of counterfactual criticism that candidates who are challenging an incumbent have <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/war-on-the-ballot/9780231209656">often tended to embrace</a>, safe in the knowledge that they won’t be held accountable for delivering on policies that may prove unwise or unworkable. At least, not until after the election.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/war-on-the-ballot/9780231209656">my research</a> indicates that these dynamics also featured during previous conflicts involving the US. During the war in Iraq, for example, the administrations of both Bush and Obama grew increasingly anxious about additional or extended troop deployments as elections loomed. </p>
<p>More broadly, several studies find that leaders facing reelection tend to be more <a href="http://conconi.ulb.be/DP.pdf">conflict-averse</a>, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=353">entering fewer wars</a> in the months before an election than during other parts of their tenure.</p>
<h2>Ending endless wars?</h2>
<p>Whether or not a lasting <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/us/politics/israel-hamas-gaza-hostages.html">diplomatic solution</a> to the crisis in Gaza can be found remains to be seen. But from a wider perspective, the genie may already be out of the bottle. It is only a few short months since the US national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, triumphantly <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-middle-east-jake-sullivan/675580/">declared</a> that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades”.</p>
<p>On Monday, by contrast, secretary of state <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/4437128-blinken-middle-east-israel-iran/">Antony Blinken warned</a> that the Middle East faces its most “dangerous” situation since at least 1973.</p>
<p>These rhetorical gymnastics reflect a fast-moving strategic reality. But they also render hollow the political promises of successive presidents – <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/#:%7E:text=It%20was%20time%20to%20be,should%20have%20ended%20long%20ago.">including Biden</a> – to bring an end to the era of major military operations in the wider region.</p>
<p>The reality is that many of the forces deployed to the region during the fight against the Islamic State never left. The US still has thousands of troops <a href="https://dwp.dmdc.osd.mil/dwp/app/dod-data-reports/workforce-reports">stationed</a> in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. It is these forces that have been subject to periodic attacks from Iranian proxies. Over 150 such attacks have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/us/politics/biden-iran-drone-strike.html#:%7E:text=President%20Biden%20has%20carefully%20calibrated,killed%20three%20American%20service%20members.">taken place</a> since October 7. </p>
<p>Coupled with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/us/politics/houthi-yemen-strikes.html">joint US-UK airstrikes</a> against Houthi targets in Yemen, the promised response to last weekend’s attack indicates we may be entering the latest instalment of the “endless wars” from which Biden had hoped to move on. The episode therefore raises questions about the scope of the broader US military commitment in the Middle East – and whether either candidate is prepared to make clear the real strategic trade-offs implied in their promises.</p>
<p>In the meantime, we can be sure of one thing: war is very much on the ballot in November’s presidential election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222410/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Payne is a Nonresident Fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs</span></em></p>History tells us that US presidents tend to be cautious about foreign policy in an election year – especially in the Middle East.Andrew Payne, Lecturer in Foreign Policy and Security, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205182024-01-14T12:58:33Z2024-01-14T12:58:33ZDon’t count Biden out: January polls are historically unreliable<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/dont-count-biden-out-january-polls-are-historically-unreliable" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As 2024 begins, Joe Biden’s hopes of being re-elected president of the United States look shaky. Recent <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo">approval ratings have him at 39 per cent</a>, consumer sentiment on the economy sits near <a href="https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.php">a 10-year low</a> and early polls have him down about two points in a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com">hypothetical rematch with Donald Trump</a>. </p>
<p>How worried should Democrats be? </p>
<p>Several historical patterns are relevant and work in Biden’s favour.</p>
<h2>Democrats gripe, then return</h2>
<p>First, in seven of the last eight presidential elections, the Democrat has won more votes. The <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">Electoral College</a> aside, American voters lean Democratic. </p>
<p>Also, they don’t give up on a president very often. Since 1896, the only presidents to have taken over from the opposing party and then lost re-election were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/07/one-term-presidents-trump/">Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Trump in 2020</a>. Unless things are going very badly, re-election of a president is the most likely outcome. </p>
<p>Biden’s current polling doesn’t tell the whole story of his chances. For one, a poll’s timing should affect what we infer from it. Approval ratings in January of an election year don’t reflect the support that will likely exist in November. </p>
<p>Biden’s approval rating is 78 per cent among Democrats, but those numbers will likely improve by November if the re-elections of both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are any indication.</p>
<p>On Jan. 1, 2012, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">76 per cent of self-identifying Democrats approved of Obama’s job performance</a>. By the week of the 2012 election, it was 91 per cent. Ninety-two per cent of Democrats voted for him in 2012. </p>
<p>Similarly, Clinton’s <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">January 1996 approval rating among Democrats was 72 per cent</a>, but 86 per cent by the time the election was held. </p>
<p>Democrats are more likely to express dissatisfaction with their own presidents, but they return to the fold. That’s because months before an election, disapproval is an easy way for Democrats to relate their misgivings about their candidate. </p>
<p>As the year progresses, approval becomes more about the choice between their team’s candidate and the opposition. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000722">Campaigns ramp up partisanship later in an election year, and that hasn’t really begun yet</a>.</p>
<h2>Too soon</h2>
<p>Another hidden pocket of Biden support is among voters who are neither Democrats nor Republicans. Self-described independents’ approval of Biden is just under 30 per cent, but they preferred him to Trump by 52 per cent to 43 per cent <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">in 2020</a>. More than 30 per cent are likely to choose Biden this November.</p>
<p>Biden versus Trump polls this early are likely poor predictors of what’s to come, especially with a president running for re-election. The incumbent party candidate is known, while the media focuses on the debates and primaries of the other party. </p>
<p>In every January of an election year, it’s still not clear who will be the successful challenger to the president in November. Questions about hypothetical match-ups are more about a referendum on the president — whether they deserve re-election or how they compare to some possible alternative.</p>
<p>But as the year progresses and the opposition candidate is chosen, survey respondents focus more on the choice between candidates on Election Day. </p>
<p>Right now, disappointed liberals, some independents and Democrats who are worried about Biden’s age <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/kamala-harris-approval-rating-polls-vs-biden-other-vps/#:%7E:text=As%20of%20Jan.,update%20as%20new%20polls%20arrive.">(or Vice-President Kamala Harris waiting in the wings)</a> may tell pollsters they would vote for another candidate. But most will probably come back to Biden. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-bidens-ego-bring-trump-back-to-the-white-house-219469">Will Biden's ego bring Trump back to the White House?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A highly unusual election year</h2>
<p>Still, 2024 is anything but typical. </p>
<p>In a routine re-election year, it takes time for voters to form opinions about the challenger. Voters already know Trump, who’s the first former president <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/16/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office/">since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 to seek the office again.</a> Roosevelt lost, incidentally.</p>
<p>Also, a second Biden-Trump showdown would be the first rematch since <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1956_Election/">Adlai Stevenson lost for a second time to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956</a>. If Trump is the nominee, voters will have well-defined opinions of both candidates already.</p>
<p>Worries about Biden’s age will be thought of more comparatively — Trump would be older at his second inauguration than Biden was at his first. Voters can also compare Biden’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/">economic record (400,000 jobs/month) to Trump’s (176,000 jobs/month prior to the COVID-19 pandemic)</a>.</p>
<p>Also, Trump’s interweaving of campaigning for president while fighting court battles in four jurisdictions will provide a daily contrast to Biden. A recent <em>Washington Post</em> poll <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/1f428bba-56ee-4800-b00d-7fd1b0004627.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">found 56 per cent of respondents think Trump is probably or definitely guilty of criminal conspiracy</a> regarding his claims of voter fraud and efforts to overturn the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Legal experts suggest Trump <a href="https://www.salon.com/2024/01/10/dead-man-walking-experts-say-immunity-lawyer-lost-after-he-set-a-trap-for-himself/">will probably be convicted this year on some charges.</a> The Supreme Court may even disqualify him from running, though that’s less likely.</p>
<h2>Be skeptical of polls for now</h2>
<p>With 2020 as a baseline, we know a lot about how voters will choose between Trump and Biden. With strong polarization between the parties, significant movement from the 2020 results will be unlikely. </p>
<p>Biden’s victory <a href="https://www.270towin.com">by seven million votes</a> included the key states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. That was good for 306 of 538 electoral votes. </p>
<p>The president could lose several of those swing states in 2024 and still prevail. Mid-terms in 2022 brought in many new voters — younger and pro-choice — who will likely add to that small cushion.</p>
<p>There are many unknowns for 2024, and Trump is not yet the Republican nominee. But in a Trump versus Biden rematch, not much will have changed and a similar result is most likely: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles. </p>
<p>Don’t believe all the numbers just yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Lebo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.Matthew Lebo, Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2203682024-01-05T13:45:57Z2024-01-05T13:45:57ZTrump’s Iowa political organizing this year is nothing like his scattershot 2016 campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567701/original/file-20240103-21-taglo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=74%2C12%2C6094%2C5509&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump has mounted a major effort to teach people how to caucus for him.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024Iowa/18e57d55a45d41509fcc1067eb1ca80f/photo?Query=Trump%20Iowa%20Caucus%202024&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=12&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump is doing something new in Iowa.</p>
<p>The state is home to the first-in-the-nation GOP nomination event, the Iowa caucus, which takes place on Jan. 15, 2024, at 7 pm. Trump, the former president, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-leads-polls-as-iowa-caucuses-near/">holds a resounding lead</a> over his rivals. </p>
<p>What’s new for Trump in this campaign is actually old stuff – a throwback to traditional caucus campaigning. I’ve observed Iowa caucus campaigns over eight cycles, and my 2022 book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Inside-the-Bubble-Campaigns-Caucuses-and-the-Future-of-the-Presidential/Trish-Menner/p/book/9780367429782">Inside the Bubble</a>,” offers a close-up of the 2020 Democratic contest. Against that backdrop, it’s clear that the former president is taking cues from those who’ve come before him. </p>
<p>The widely accepted path to caucus success – first paved in 1976 by then-unknown Jimmy Carter on his way to the Democratic nomination and eventually the White House – is to “<a href="https://www.latimes.com/la-xpm-2011-dec-16-la-na-iowa-caucuses-gingrich-20111217-story.html">organize, organize, organize</a>,” as many campaign staff will tell you. Since then, it’s been the mantra for candidates of both parties – and this year, that includes Trump. </p>
<p>But such attention to organizing is a shift for the Trump campaign. Today, it looks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/donald-trumps-iowa-ground-game-seems-to-be-missing-a-coach.html">nothing like the scattershot</a> campaign from 2016, the only other time Trump has waged a nomination battle in the state. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A card with printing on it that asks people to sign up to work on the Trump campaign." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Commit to caucus’ cards on a table before the start of a campaign event hosted by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Dec. 13, 2023, in Coralville, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/commit-to-caucus-cards-sit-on-a-table-before-the-start-of-a-news-photo/1853187847?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Car rides, phone calls</h2>
<p>A caucus in Iowa is a first step in a series of events that will ultimately select delegates to the national convention that formally nominates the presidential candidate. Unlike a primary, in which voters go to a polling place and cast a ballot, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Caucus">a caucus is a political party meeting</a> at which people discuss the candidates and then vote. </p>
<p>Caucuses are held in each of the approximately 1,700 precincts in Iowa. Registered party members can participate in the caucuses, and attendees will signal their support by writing a candidate’s name on a piece of paper. </p>
<p>Organizing isn’t unique to Iowa caucus politics, and it means different things depending on the context. In electoral politics across the U.S., <a href="https://hls.harvard.edu/bernard-koteen-office-of-public-interest-advising/a-quick-guide-to-working-on-political-campaigns/">campaigns organize by doling out responsibilities</a> to field staff positioned across a state or electoral district. These staff, then, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Get_out_the_vote">amass volunteers to get-out-the-vote</a>, either on election day or – in some states – in an early voting window before the election. </p>
<p>A typical organizing effort in caucus politics identifies early supporters of a candidate and asks them to be the foundation for a larger volunteer structure. These volunteers engage in outreach to other potential supporters – sometimes in-person, via door-to-door canvassing or on the phone, and increasingly by sending text messages. They’ll make sure that known supporters get assistance they might need to get to the caucus, such as a car ride.</p>
<p>The personal element of organizing is well-suited to caucus politics, which poses unique challenges to campaigns. Like primaries, caucuses are within political parties, so voters can’t rely on cues like party labels to pick a candidate. Instead, a friend or family member volunteering for a candidate just might be persuasive.</p>
<p>Caucus organizers can help voters navigate a byzantine process. </p>
<p>Unlike primaries, which involve a daylong window for voting, caucuses are scheduled for a specific day at sometimes obscure locations; this year’s Jan. 15 date coincides with Martin Luther King Day. Caucuses always start at 7 p.m., and they last as long as it takes to conclude business, which is likely an hour. This process can be intimidating, and effective organization can educate supporters and help ensure they show up. </p>
<h2>Campaign bling</h2>
<p>Trump’s nod to organizing is noteworthy and is at odds with his brand, which is more focused on stirring the pot and agitating, rather than painstakingly building an infrastructure. </p>
<p>Back in 2016, reluctant Trump volunteers, unfamiliar with caucus procedures, courted Iowa supporters. And while the headquarters of rival candidates were abuzz with activity, Trump’s was deserted. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/01/us/politics/trump-iowa-caucuses.html#:%7E:text=Then%20everybody%20votes.-,Mr.%20Trump%20blamed%20his%20second%2Dplace%20finish%20in%20Iowa%20in,Iowa%20operation%20at%20the%20time.">Trump came in second</a> in that year’s caucus. </p>
<p>Now, Trump’s <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-quietly-151635443.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall">2024 field army</a> of some 2,000 caucus captains, many of whom have already gone through formal training, are the front-line recruiters in the lead-up to this year’s caucus. They carry out tasks on behalf of the campaign at events themselves. Lest this all seem overly staid, there’s bling, too – <a href="https://x.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1739702608615333942?s=20">a limited edition white and gold variant</a> of the distinctive MAGA cap for the captains.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1739702608615333942"}"></div></p>
<p>Of Trump’s GOP rivals, it’s Vivek Ramaswamy, the young biotech entrepreneur new to politics, who’s working the hardest to meet Republican activists face to face. With a schedule packed with “town hall” appearances, as many as eight or nine daily, Ramaswamy is on the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/05/03/pizza-ranch-circuit-iowa-caucuses/26844813/">Pizza Ranch circuit</a>, taking advantage of the community rooms in the Iowa-based restaurant chain with a Christian conservative corporate vision.</p>
<h2>Caucus 101 lessons</h2>
<p>Trump’s caucus events are different. They’re large rallies with hundreds in attendance – and since mid-October, most of them are billed as “Commit to Caucus” events. The events have considerable time devoted to instructing the crowd about how to caucus, which is an unusual use of time at campaign events. It’s also a little perplexing, but potentially conveys some meaning.</p>
<p>The typical rally requires attendees to register and be in place well before the event begins, perhaps 1-2 hours early. Attendees are primed with a playlist and some B-list endorsers. They have included a losing congressional candidate, Trump’s former <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665832951/who-is-acting-attorney-general-matthew-whitaker">acting attorney general</a> after he fired Jeff Sessions, and the Iowa attorney general. </p>
<p>Despite Trump’s commanding lead in the polls, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-endorsed-iowa-evangelical-leader-bob-vander-plaats-rcna126189">local GOP stars</a> – like Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and prominent Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats – are on Team (Ron) DeSantis.</p>
<p>But early in these Trump rallies, the program pivots to a Caucus 101-like presentation – how to find out where to caucus, what to do in advance and what to expect at the caucuses. </p>
<p>The other GOP candidates do this at their events to a much lesser extent, if at all. And in a heavily reported gaffe, Casey DeSantis, the spouse of the Florida governor, actually conveyed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/09/casey-desantis-ron-desantis-iowa-election-fraud">incorrect instructions</a>, saying that non-Iowans can participate in the Iowa caucuses. </p>
<p>The how-to-caucus component of Trump campaign events could be nothing more than filler, something to occupy the attention of a confined crowd forced to be in place for hours. It might even be ill-advised, patently naïve because it’s instructing not only Trump supporters, but also Republicans in other candidates’ camps. <a href="https://iowademocrats.org/2020-caucus-training/">When Democratic candidates have offered such instruction</a> in the past, it’s been behind closed doors, reserved for known supporters and closer to caucus time.</p>
<p>It’s just possible that there’s more to this, some deeper meaning in the former president signing off on an effort to build an organization. Perhaps he recognizes that celebrity will only take him so far, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/01/us/politics/trump-iowa-caucuses.html#:%7E:text=Then%20everybody%20votes.-,Mr.%20Trump%20blamed%20his%20second%2Dplace%20finish%20in%20Iowa%20in,Iowa%20operation%20at%20the%20time.">that attention to the traditional tools of politics</a> might be in his best interests.</p>
<p>In that spirit, last summer Trump’s campaign scored a big win in California, where it successfully pushed for <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2023/0801/Winner-takes-all-California-Republicans-modify-electoral-strategy">Trump-friendly processes</a> in that state’s winner-take-all presidential primary. Whether simply finding ways to modify rules to his advantage – or flat-out rigging the system – this new Trump approach is time-honored.</p>
<p>And it just might give Democrats even more cause for concern. A second term might be fueled with a little more political know-how to advance the Trump agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220368/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara A. Trish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s Iowa caucus campaign is very nuts-and-bolts. That may be a recognition that celebrity will only take him so far and attention to traditional political tools might be in his interest.Barbara A. Trish, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205092024-01-04T13:48:30Z2024-01-04T13:48:30ZHow the Iowa caucuses became the first major challenge of US presidential campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567745/original/file-20240103-27-wzffb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Guests attend a rally for former U.S. President Donald Trump on Dec. 19, 2023, in Waterloo, Iowa.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/guests-attend-a-campaign-event-hosted-by-republican-news-photo/1868318344?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first and most visible test of Republican candidate support in the 2024 presidential election is the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">Iowa caucuses</a>, which take place on <a href="https://www.iowagop.org/2024caucus">Jan. 15, 2024</a>. </p>
<p>This year, even though Democrat Joe Biden is not facing a serious challenger for renomination, the Democrats had already <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-republican-presidential-hopefuls-iowa-is-still-the-first-political-beauty-contest-198385">decided to move</a> their first test to South Carolina on <a href="https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/01/03/important-deadlines-released-sc-presidential-primary-voter-registration/">Feb. 3, 2024</a>.</p>
<p>While Iowa does not control who becomes the candidate of each party, Iowans’ choices almost always end up <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">matching the rest of the nation</a>.</p>
<p>One of the architects of the modern Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972, wrote that the significance of the caucus was unanticipated. </p>
<p>“Never in our dreams did we realize we would be ‘first in the nation,’ nor did we ever expect anyone outside Iowa would pay much attention,” retired Iowa State University <a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-2">engineering professor Richard Seagrave wrote</a>. </p>
<p>Seagrave said that it wasn’t political calculation that led to the choice to run the caucuses early in the election year. It was the “immense amount of paperwork” needed to document caucus proceedings with only a slow mimeograph machine that led to the choice of such an early caucus date.</p>
<p>“Remember that we had no ‘user-friendly’ computers or high-speed copy machines in 1972,” wrote Seagrave.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo10415852.html">significance of first-in-the-nation</a> placement did not become clear until a barely known governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">came to Iowa in 1976</a> to test the waters for a presidential run. </p>
<p>That year, “<a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-3">Uncommitted</a>” got 14,508 votes (37%). Carter came in with 10,764 votes (27%) but was declared the winner. He went on to get the nomination and win the presidency. The fact that a relative unknown – spending little money but lots of time and face-to-face campaigning – could win was surprising.</p>
<h2>Why a caucus?</h2>
<p>Before the modern system for choosing presidential candidates was invented, the mechanism since 1832 for nominating presidential candidates had been a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jah/article-abstract/61/4/1097/705185?redirectedFrom=fulltext">national political convention of each party</a>. Voters in each state convention elected delegates to the national convention. A caucus is one way state party leaders picked whom to send and whom those delegates should support.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chicago Mayor Richard Daley at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Daley’s response to violence at the convention led to major political reforms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/AP-Was-There-Chicago-Riots/1fbc4ed9150a48c982c2808f2f9faf9a/1/0">AP/Jack Thornell, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Political bosses, such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Huey-Long-American-politician">Huey Long from Louisiana</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boss-Tweed">William “Boss” Tweed</a> of New York, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/James-Michael-Curley">James Michael Curley</a> of Boston and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-J-Pendergast">Tom Pendergast from Kansas City</a>, had the real power in the 19th and early 20th centuries through their political organizations. Bosses <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/bosses-and-bossism-political">offered aid</a> – housing, medical care, food, clothing – to people before government services became common. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/bosses.htm">Pendergast once told The New York Times</a>, “When a poor man comes to old Tom’s boys for help we don’t make one of those damn fool investigations like these city charities. No, by God, we fill his belly and warm his back and vote him our way.”</p>
<p>A vestige of that political era lasted into the second half of the 20th century, when the actions of Chicago’s longtime political boss, Democratic Mayor Richard Daley, led to a profound change in the presidential candidate selection process.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">The 1968 Democratic National Convention</a> took place in Chicago, a city tightly controlled by Daley. His operatives had long seen to it that people voted for Daley and his chosen candidates.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.history.com/news/1968-political-violence">1968 was a year of violence related to race and the Vietnam War</a>. Riots disrupted the convention. <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">Mayor Daley used his police force to crush</a> the protests. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/democratic-convention-besieged-by-protesters">Daley then bullied delegates</a> to nominate <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo5826735.html">his favored candidate</a>, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, even though Humphrey <a href="https://time.com/4414685/1968-democratic-convention-reform-geoffrey-cowan/">didn’t win</a> a single primary election. </p>
<p>All of this was covered live on television. The violence and bias threatened to taint the Democratic Party.</p>
<h2>1968 provokes reforms</h2>
<p>The Democratic Party created the McGovern–Fraser Commission in 1968 in <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/mcgovern-fraser-commission-report/">response to the events in Chicago</a>. The new rules changed the party’s presidential nominating process in an attempt to make them more systematic and transparent, as well as to encourage more participation by minority groups, young people and women roughly proportional to their numbers in states.</p>
<p>It was <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2149263">these reforms</a> that launched Iowa’s caucuses in 1972.</p>
<p>In 1976, the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">Iowa Republican Party followed the Democrats</a> and began holding caucuses on the same early date. </p>
<p>That increased the visibility of the Iowa caucuses out of proportion to their actual numeric influence in the nominating convention. In 2020, for instance, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020">Iowa sent only 49 delegates</a> out of the estimated total of 4,594 Democratic delegates.</p>
<p>In fact, the caucuses are in large part a media event and a beauty contest, as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt20mvfpw">scholars Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis J. Goldford</a> have suggested. </p>
<p>One memorable caucus occurred in 2004, when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/howard-dean-s-scream-turns-15-its-impact-american-politics-n959916">Vermont Gov. Howard Dean</a>, who came in third, was cheering on his supporters as he contemplated a national campaign. But a microphone malfunction amplified his enthusiasm. What become known as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6i-gYRAwM0">“Dean Scream”</a> tanked his candidacy. </p>
<p>Another took place in 2008 when a first-term U.S. senator, Barack Obama, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/jan-2008-barack-obama-wins-2008-iowa-caucus-52099437">won the Iowa caucuses</a>, propelling him to a hard-fought nomination and two terms in the White House. </p>
<p>And in 2016, Democratic Socialist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/hillary-clinton-wins-iowa-caucuses-bernie-sanders-young-voters">Bernie Sanders almost beat Hillary Clinton</a> in Iowa. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sen. Barack Obama’s surprise win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses helped propel him to the presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Obama-2008/a48b051db43c455ba950a68b56de00d1/48/0">AP/M. Spencer Green</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How they do it</h2>
<p>On caucus night, Republican voters gather at precinct meeting places that have included schools, libraries, churches, fire stations and <a href="https://youtu.be/wU1JrPmCZTE">even people’s homes</a>. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/09/20/dnc-approves-iowa-caucuses-satellite-location-plan-2020-democrats-democratic-party/2387347001/">In 2020, Democrats also had satellite caucuses</a>, with some even held overseas. </p>
<p>There are speeches by supporters who gather into groups for each candidate. The numbers in each group are counted.</p>
<p>Once the viable groups have been declared, a complex mathematical calculation determines how many delegates are allocated to each surviving candidate. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/01/30/464960979/how-do-the-iowa-caucuses-work">Republican caucuses</a>, attendees vote and the delegates are apportioned according to the statewide results.</p>
<h2>The Iowa caucuses become a tradition</h2>
<p>The Iowa caucuses have become a political tradition because the media devotes so much attention to the candidates’ activities in Iowa and then to how they perform on caucus night. </p>
<p>Criticisms have emerged. Iowa’s small and mostly white population has subjected the caucus to the charge that it is <a href="https://fortune.com/2016/01/20/iowa-caucus-reflect-us/">not representative of the nation as a whole</a>. </p>
<p>A 2019 <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/12/19/democratic-debate-poll-says-iowa-new-hampshire-either-great-terrible/2673988001/">USA Today/Suffolk University poll</a> attested to that concern: While 57% of respondents liked that the opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire forced candidates to talk directly to voters, 52% thought that the two states didn’t reflect the nation’s diversity. </p>
<p>There is also a concern that caucuses are difficult events to participate in because voters must attend personally and at night. The turnout rate of eligible voters is low, hovering around 10%, while <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/">primaries normally have turnouts of 35% or more</a>.</p>
<p>In 2020, there was renewed debate about <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/too-much-democracy-is-bad-for-democracy/600766/">how Americans should select their candidates for president</a>. Caucuses are now generally in disfavor, with many states moving to primaries. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/be127173">originally published on Jan. 1, 2020</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen W. Schmidt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A political scientist traces the development of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses and how the small, rural state became influential in presidential politics.Steffen W. Schmidt, Professor of Political Science, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201702024-01-03T17:41:24Z2024-01-03T17:41:24ZHow Israel failed to learn from the Northern Ireland peace process<p>There is no peace in the Middle East because there is no effective peace process. This isn’t because the Palestinians and Israelis do not know how to make peace. They do. The Good Friday agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland a quarter of a century ago, provided a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/002903.pdf">clear guide</a>. They have to do what the negotiating teams, of which I was a part, did in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>The problem is Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his ally, the United States of America, who have failed to apply the lessons of Northern Ireland to Middle East peacemaking.</p>
<p>To fully understand the tragedy this represents, it’s necessary to go back in time to the negotiations that achieved the Good Friday agreement in 1997. At the time I was working, together with two other Northern Ireland-based academics, <a href="https://www.qub.ac.uk/schools/NBE/Research/research-centres-and-institutes/CentreofCanadianStudiesCCS/AffiliatedStaff/">Fred Boal</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-hadden-1397964">Tom Hadden</a>, developing a range of public polls to gauge opinion about how to achieve peace. </p>
<p>As the principal investigator on the Peace Building and Public Policy in Northern Ireland project – independent of government and funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust (JRCT) – my role was to develop relations with all the parties to the Northern Ireland peace process and act as an informal negotiator and manager of public opinion and public diplomacy. The public was kept informed through reports and articles in the local newspaper, the <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=10">Belfast Telegraph</a>. It was key to the process that people of all shades of political opinion were not only involved, but were fully informed at all times.</p>
<p>Critically, all the parties to the conflict in Northern Ireland were democratically elected to participate in the peace negotiations there, including the Irish Republican Army represented by Sinn Féin, and the Ulster Volunteer Force and Ulster Freedom Fighters represented by their political leaderships, the Progressive Unionist Party and Ulster Democratic Party respectively. </p>
<p>In all, I had to work with eight political parties negotiating and agreeing questions for public opinion polls designed to resolve issues in the formal negotiations that had yet to be settled.</p>
<h2>How ‘peace polls’ work</h2>
<p>These <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/008880.pdf">“peace polls”</a> were unlike “partisan polls” designed to underline the public’s support for a particular policy favoured by one party or another (most commonly a government). Instead, the polls – which I developed with a partner from each of the eight political parties elected to the formal negotiations – aimed to fairly and objectively measure the public’s support, from both sides, for every possible policy option across the political spectrum. The objective was to determine the precise points of common ground, where they existed, or effective compromise where it was needed for peacemaking. </p>
<p>Public opinion polls are an American invention and, fortunately for me, Bill Clinton’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and the “talks” chairman, Senator George Mitchell, took the polls very seriously and gave me every possible support. </p>
<p>When the British offered to run the polling project for the parties, the parties rebelled and insisted on working with me with JCRT funding. So I always made a point of hand delivering the reports to Mitchell and the parties the day before they were published. And each time the polling reports were published, deals got done until we reached an agreement that we knew could <a href="https://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fref98.htm">pass a referendum</a>, which was eventually held on May 22 1998.</p>
<p>The legitimacy of the Good Friday agreement was ensured by the full democratic participation of all the parties to the agreement and the people of Northern Ireland. Through public opinion polls the people gained a seat at the negotiating table, and through a referendum the deal was made.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/n_-oR5I0wWs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Colin Irwin explains peace polls and how they might have affected the Brexit referendum.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tragically, the peoples of Israel and Palestine have been prevented from learning and applying these same peace lessons to the resolution of their conflict.</p>
<h2>When it all went wrong</h2>
<p>In January 2009, the newly elected US president, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/22/hillary-clinton-obama-israel-palestine">Barack Obama, appointed Mitchell</a> as his special envoy for Middle East peace, in the hope he could bring the success of the Good Friday agreement peace process to Israel and Palestine. Expecting Obama to appoint Mitchell to this post following his successful election in 2008, I was invited to run a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/000571.pdf">peace poll in Israel and Palestine</a>.</p>
<p>I was flown to Washington in June 2009 along with my Israeli and Palestinian polling team. Presentations were arranged for us in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6q2hyaKjs0">US House of Representatives and Senate</a>, and various thinktanks to brief all the politicians and experts with an interest in Middle East peace.</p>
<p>I had been in touch with Mitchell and met him in his office at the State Department. At that time I had also been running peace polls in <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=18">Sri Lanka</a> with support from the Norwegians. They were a generous and reliable funder and had indicated they would be willing to support my work in Israel and Palestine if Mitchell wanted them to. </p>
<p>Mitchell welcomed the Norwegian offer, arrangements were made to take it up, but it all fell through – my gut feel was that the State Department wanted to have control of the research to meet their own agenda. So I did not get the funding and Mitchell eventually resigned his post without achieving peace in May 2011.</p>
<p>Of course, it can be argued that even if I had brought the lessons of the Northern Ireland peace process to Israel and Palestine I would have failed. But I had made all necessary preparations and contacts with all the parties to the conflict to make it work. I knew what I was doing – as did Mitchell when he accepted his appointment from Obama.</p>
<p>Over a period of two months of interviews to develop the questionnaire in November and December 2008 I had private meetings with all the relevant stakeholders including the then Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, and president, Shimon Peres, on the Israeli side. My pollster Mina Zemach was a good friend of Peres and had been his pollster when he led the Labour party.</p>
<p>On the Palestinian side, the non-governmental organisation organising the project, <a href="https://www.onevoicemovement.org/">OneVoice</a>, had close connections with Fatah, the political party founded by Yassir Arafat and others in the 1950s, which was at that stage dominant within the Palestinian Authority. So I arranged to meet with Hamas via an introduction from <a href="https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/ghassan_khatib/">Ghassan Khatib</a>, an independent Palestinian politician and director of the <a href="http://www.jmcc.org/index.aspx">Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre</a>. </p>
<p>Speaking with Hamas was like speaking with Sinn Féin. They had an extreme negotiating position but that is all it was: a negotiating position. Like Sinn Féin they had a legitimate grievance and said they would be happy to cooperate with the peace polls. Of course the impact of the Hamas attack of October 7 and Israel’s assault on Gaza has profoundly reshaped public opinion on all sides.</p>
<p>Violence on both sides of the Troubles that continued <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/04/02/how-murder-of-two-best-friends-spurred-final-push-for-peace-in-north/">even as the talks were progressing</a> meant that at times many thought we would never achieve a peace agreement in Northern Ireland. But such tragedies can either doom negotiations or inspire renewed effort. People have a choice. We carried on. </p>
<p>Significantly, the one key interlocutor who refused to meet with me in December 2008 was Netanyahu. He only consented to send his chief of staff. Zemach said this was because he would refuse to compromise on sharing Jerusalem as part of any peace agreement. And when he became Israel’s prime minister in March 2009 he also refused to include Hamas in any peace negotiations.</p>
<p>My experience told me that excluding Sinn Féin and the other paramilitary organisations from peace negotiations in Northern Ireland had only brought failure, while their inclusion had enabled the peace settlement. </p>
<p>Other parties essential to the success of the Northern Ireland peace process had been the centre <a href="https://www.allianceparty.org/peace_process_papers?locale=en">Alliance Party</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/1/northern-ireland-peace-deal-womens-role-finally-recognised-says-activist">Women’s Coalition</a>. </p>
<p>The politically equivalent party in Israel was Meretz, a left-wing socialist party and strong supporter of the <a href="https://peacenow.org.il/en">Peace Now</a> movement. When I met with them, like Alliance, they told me they would be pleased to be part of a fully inclusive peace process but they were excluded from negotiations as they were not part of Netanyahu’s coalition government.</p>
<p>The establishment in Washington did not have a problem with my contacts with Hamas. In 2009, I had also been working on a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=22">project in Sudan</a> with the US Institute of Peace. Although Hamas was a proscribed terrorist organisation, the Institute for Peace lawyers said it was OK for me to meet and talk with them providing I did not give them any assistance. They advised me “not to even buy them a coffee”. I took this advice. Hamas provided the coffee.</p>
<p>But without inclusive negotiations that also drew on the public’s desire for an end to the bloodshed, peace was not achieved. </p>
<p>In 2013, when I was in New York for meetings at the UN I took the opportunity to visit Mitchell at his law office and asked him why he had resigned. He said it was because he was not getting sufficient support from the State Department. I had planned to reveal this in a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/008880.pdf">book I was writing</a>. But a trusted colleague and friend advised me against it, as it could reflect badly on the former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, when she was campaigning to be president in the run-up to the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Accordingly, I watered down the quote to saying something about the lack of sufficient support in Washington. It was not untrue, but it was not the whole truth.</p>
<h2>Misplaced optimism</h2>
<p>In my optimism at the time, I thought perhaps that Clinton – if she became president – would send her husband to the Middle East as her special envoy. Bill Clinton had got very close to making an agreement some years earlier with the “<a href="https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Peace%20Puzzle/10_Clinton%20Parameters.pdf">Clinton parameters</a>”, but he ran out of time. And then Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election to Donald Trump – and so we are where we are.</p>
<p>It is just as likely that my optimism was misplaced and that Clinton and possibly Joe Biden – who has always been a very strong supporter of Israel – did not want to oppose Netanyahu for domestic political reasons.</p>
<p>When the Good Friday agreement was struck 25 years ago, both Mitchell and I thought Israel and Palestine would be our next challenge. But Al Gore, who we had hoped might set his sights on a peace deal, lost to Bush and then 9/11 happened, and the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq took all the political oxygen out of peacemaking. </p>
<p>Then, 15 years ago, we thought it would happen when Obama was elected. It should have. Another opportunity may well arrive when the present war is over, the Hamas’ attack on October 7 and Israel’s response have raised the stakes for peace considerably. Elections in the US, Israel and Palestine may also put the peace process on hold yet again. But this must not prevent people of goodwill from talking peace. And it can work, history tells us as much.</p>
<p>Sadly, Israel and Palestine are not alone in their cycles of violence and grief. All over the world the lessons of the Northern Ireland peace process are ignored. Frozen conflicts remain frozen at best and with increased frequency become unstable and violent. Over centuries, the cost of war has often been measured in “blood and treasure”. It’s fair to say that since 2009 in the Middle East and elsewhere we’ve seen “blood” in thousands of lives lost and “treasure” in billions of dollars wasted, again and again.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article originally stated that the author’s work had been funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. This was incorrect. Colin Irwin received funding from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, which is a separate entity. The error was introduced in the editing process and has now been corrected.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin John Irwin receives funding from: Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Center for Democracy and Reconciliation in South East Europe, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, OneVoice, Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (now FCDO), Economic and Social Research Council (UK ESRC), United Nations, InterPeace, Health and Welfare Canada, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), British Academy, Norwegian Peoples Aid, The Day After, No Peace Without Justice, US Department of State, Local Administrations Council Unit (Syria), Asia Foundation, Department for International Development (UK DFID), OpenAI, Atlantic Philanthropies, Universities: Dalhousie, Manitoba, Syracuse, Pennsylvania, Queens Belfast, Liverpool. Also member of the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) which promotes freedom to publish public opinion polls and sets international professional standards.</span></em></p>The main stumbling block to Middle East peace is the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.Colin John Irwin, Research Fellow, Department of Politics, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133402023-10-04T12:33:07Z2023-10-04T12:33:07ZThe Nobel Peace Prize offers no guarantee its winners actually create peace, or make it last<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551816/original/file-20231003-21-46u90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1091%2C0%2C71%2C233&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Norwegian Nobel Committee is set to announce its annual winner for the peace prize on Friday, Oct. 6, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/plaque-depicting-alfred-nobel-at-the-nobel-peace-prize-news-photo/83979203?adppopup=true">Chris Jackson/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Norwegian Nobel Committee is <a href="https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/presse/arrangementer/accreditation-announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2023?instance=0">set to announce</a> the recipient of the annual Nobel Peace Prize on Oct. 6, 2023, drawing from a pool of 351 nominees. </p>
<p>Environmental activist Greta Thunberg and Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelenskyy <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/how-is-nobel-peace-prize-decided-2023-09-29/">are reportedly two of the nominees</a>, among political dissidents, leaders and human rights activists who are up for the prize. The winner will receive a medal, US$994,000 and global recognition.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://www.sandiego.edu/peace/about/biography.php?profile_id=2091">worked in the peace-building field</a> for over 20 years to support societies as they work to prevent violence and end wars. Each year, I think I should look forward to this moment, when a champion of peace is celebrated on the world stage. But given the track record of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, I always feel some dread before the peace prize announcement. Will the award celebrate a true peace builder, or a politician that just happened to sign a peace agreement? Will it celebrate a true and historic achievement, or what happens to be in the newspaper right now? </p>
<h2>A mixed history</h2>
<p>Admittedly, the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/about/the-norwegian-nobel-committee/">Norwegian Nobel Committee</a> – made up of five Norwegians, mostly former politicians, whom the Norwegian parliament appoints for a six-year term – has made some great peace prize selections over the years. </p>
<p>South African politician Nelson Mandela, for example, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1993/summary/#">won the prize</a> in 1993 for his work to help end apartheid.</p>
<p>And Leymah Gbowee, an activist who helped bring peace to Liberia, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2011/gbowee/facts/">won the award</a> in 2011, alongside former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Yemeni women’s rights activist Tawakkul Karman.</p>
<p>Gbowee brought Christian and Muslim women together to end Liberia’s devastating 14-year civil war by using creative tactics – <a href="https://qz.com/958346/history-shows-that-sex-strikes-are-a-surprisingly-effective-strategy-for-political-change">including a sex strike</a>, in which Liberian women promised to withhold sex from their husbands until a peace agreement was signed. </p>
<p>Despite the prize’s mixed track record – and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/end-nobel-peace-prize/616300/">despite calls by some to stop giving the award</a> – I think the Nobel Peace Prize should continue. War remains one of humankind’s greatest problems, and peace is still a human achievement worth celebrating.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Leymah Gbowee wears a white shirt and marches with a long line of women, also wearing white." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leymah Gbowee, who was a joint Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2011, marches with women’s rights activists to pray for peace in Monrovia, Liberia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/liberias-joint-nobel-peace-prize-2011-leymah-gbowee-and-news-photo/1250772202?adppopup=true">Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The prize can be off-mark</h2>
<p>The Nobel Committee, in my view, does not always give the peace prize to people who actually deserve the recognition. And the prize is not a precursor to peace actually happening, or lasting. </p>
<p>Some previous awardees are head-scratchers, for peace experts and casual observers and recipients alike. For example, former President Barack Obama said that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2009/10/09/113677764/obama-surprised-at-winning-nobel-peace-prize">he was even surprised by the award</a> when he won it in 2009.</p>
<p>The committee gave him the award “based on his extraordinary efforts to <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2009/press-release/">strengthen international diplomacy</a> and cooperation between peoples.” However, Obama had been in office for less than a year when he got the prize, which is likely not enough time to do either of these things.</p>
<p>Geir Lundestad, a former secretary of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee, wrote in his 2019 memoir that he had hoped the award “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34277960">would strengthen Mr. Obama</a>” to pursue nuclear disarmament, but in the end he said that he regretted giving Obama the award. </p>
<p>Others selections, such as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, have proved embarrassing in hindsight. </p>
<p>Just one year after winning the award in 2019, Abiy ordered a large-scale military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ethiopia">a controversial political party</a> that represents the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia. </p>
<p>The war between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front resulted in tens of thousands of civilian deaths before it ended in November 2022. A <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-united-nations-africa-ethiopia-eritrea-dcb992b8389069490c8b44357500cabe">United Nations investigation</a> found in 2022 that all sides in the conflict have committed <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.shtml">war crimes</a> against civilians.</p>
<p>Berit Reiss-Andersen, the chair of the Nobel award committee, later said in 2022 that Ahmed “has a special responsibility to end the conflict and contribute to peace.” </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, such statements encouraging peace – alongside the Nobel Prize itself – have had little effect on how prize winners act. The factors that drive war or peace are complex and are unlikely to be significantly influenced by an annual award given in Norway.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A picture of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali is on display at the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, alongside other framed photos of people in a dark room with blue lighting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A photo of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is on display at the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, Norway, recognizing winners of the Nobel Peace Prize.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/picture-of-the-2019-nobel-peace-prize-laureate-ethiopian-news-photo/1175337675?adppopup=true">Stan Lysberg Solum/NTB Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Peace is long term</h2>
<p>Other Nobel awarding committees seem to understand that it takes a significant amount of time to judge whether an achievement truly merits the prize.</p>
<p>Both physicists and economists wait an average of 23 years to <a href="https://www.nature.com/nature-index/news/chemistry-fastest-path-nobel-prize">receive an award</a> after they achieve their award-winning work. </p>
<p>In contrast, American diplomat Henry Kissinger won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1973 for negotiating a <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/cease-fire-goes-into-effect">cease-fire in Vietnam that same year</a>. The cease-fire began to falter almost immediately, and Saigon, the capital of South Vietnam, fell to the North Vietnamese army in May 1975. Kissinger then unsuccessfully tried to return the prize, noting that <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/world/kissinger-nobel-peace-prize-vietnam-war-b2261492.html">“peace we sought through negotiations has been overturned by force</a>.”</p>
<p>Similarly, the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli political leaders Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin won the peace prize in 1994, one year after they signed the <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/israelopt-osloaccord93">Oslo Accords,</a> a series of agreements that set up Palestinian self-governance for the West Bank and Gaza. But by 2000, Palestinians had launched the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Israel/The-second-intifada">second intifada</a>, and widespread violence returned to the region.</p>
<p>The Nobel committee tends to award prizes to those involved in current events and doesn’t award prizes long after those events have happened. But some awards have stood the test of time, in part because they were given to individuals following long struggles.</p>
<p>Mandela, for instance, won the prize 53 years after his expulsion from university for joining a protest. This sparked <a href="https://southafrica-info.com/history/nelson-mandela-timeline/">a 53-yearlong career in activism and politics</a> that included 27 years of incarceration as a political prisoner by the government he had fought against – and later led as president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Yaser Arafat, Shimon Peres and Yitzak Rabin stand in a row and show an open book with a gold Nobel peace prize in it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palestinian leader Yaser Arafat, left, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, center, and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin display their joint Nobel Peace Prizes in 1994.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-handout-from-the-government-press-office-israeli-news-photo/51663003?adppopup=true">Government Press Office via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>It’s about peace</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel/alfred-nobels-life-and-work/">Swedish scientist Alfred Nobel</a> – the founder of the Nobel awards – said the Nobel Peace Prize should go to the person “who has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the establishment and promotion of peace congresses.” </p>
<p>The language is somewhat archaic, but the message is clear – the peace prize was designed to be about stopping war and promoting peace. </p>
<p>However, in the last 20 years, the peace prize has been awarded to those working on a variety of issues, including <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2021/summary/">freedom of expression</a>, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2014/summary/">children’s education</a> and <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2007/summary/">climate change</a>.</p>
<p>All of these are important issues that require more support and recognition – but it is not the case that freedom of expression or climate change adaptation directly leads to peace.</p>
<p>In my view, there are more than enough problems and deadly conflicts in the world whose solutions merit the award of the Nobel Peace Prize as a reflection of its original intent – to acknowledge attempts aimed at ending the scourge of war and building a sustainable peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nobel Peace Prize has recognized some legendary leaders and peace activists, but it has a mixed track record of recognizing people who actually deserve the prize.Andrew Blum, Executive Director and Professor of Practice at Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace, University of San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109542023-09-29T13:40:32Z2023-09-29T13:40:32ZSupreme Court justices’ ideologies don’t always fit ‘liberal’ and ‘conservative’ labels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550413/original/file-20230926-17-8919vk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=614%2C0%2C6579%2C3731&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is justice – and are the justices – blind to partisan politics?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/blind-justice-symbol-on-a-metallic-statue-on-a-dark-royalty-free-image/1318238966">Simple Images/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the Supreme Court is in the news for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1102305878/supreme-court-abortion-roe-v-wade-decision-overturn">overturning a long-standing precedent</a> or <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/samuel-alito-luxury-fishing-trip-paul-singer-scotus-supreme-court">violating standard</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/13/politics/clarence-thomas-billionaires-ethics-rules/index.html">judicial ethics</a>, the news is often accompanied by the description of one or more justices as liberal or conservative. </p>
<p>You’d think it would be easy to tell the difference between the two, but judicial scholars will tell you it’s more difficult than you might think. There’s more to the story than who appointed those justices and the labels given in the media.</p>
<p>The first scholar to really call attention to <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2125654">judges’ personal views, as measured by judicial ideology</a>, was political scientist <a href="https://chronicle.uchicago.edu/950511/pritchett.shtml">C. Herman Pritchett</a>. In 1941, his study on the number of dissents in the court during that term revealed a wide range of decisions, despite the fact that seven of the nine were committed New Deal supporters who had been appointed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Explanations from the legal community, such as precedent, weren’t enough to explain the rulings. </p>
<p>Even though they were viewing the same facts and working with the same laws, “It may well have been the most divided court in Supreme Court history,” Pritchett wrote at the time. His work led to a wave of scholars searching for <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/constitutional-law-changing-america-rights-liberties-and-justice">personal attitudes and judicial ideologies</a> as a determinant of Supreme Court voting behavior.</p>
<h2>Measuring ideologies</h2>
<p>One contemporary analysis of Supreme Court justices is the <a href="https://mqscores.lsa.umich.edu">“Martin-Quinn” measure of judicial ideology</a>, calculated for every justice from 1937 to 2021, developed by political scientists Andrew D. Martin and Kevin M. Quinn.</p>
<p>Their research, and work by judicial scholar Lee Epstein, shows many cases where justices crossed traditional judicial ideologies on Supreme Court rulings <a href="https://epstein.usc.edu/2021termdatareport">in the 2021-22 term</a>. </p>
<p>In June 2021, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-defies-critics-wave-unanimous-decisions/story?id=78463255">ABC News research</a> “found 67% of the court’s opinions in cases argued during the term that ends this month have been unanimous or near-unanimous with just one justice dissenting.” The report cited Jeffrey Rosen of the National Constitution Center, who credited Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett for “the project of bipartisan unanimity” during the the 2020-21 term. <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Merits-cases-by-vote-split-7.20.20.pdf">And according to SCOTUSblog</a>, an average of 48% of Supreme Court rulings from 2010 to 2018 were unanimous. Another 8% were nearly unanimous. </p>
<p>Scholars have noticed that labeling justices’ ideologies based upon their voting records in court rulings can <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2960194">involve flawed logic</a>. Are judges labeled conservative or liberal based upon their judicial ideology or how they vote? Or is their judicial ideology determined by their voting record? It’s a chicken-and-egg question of which came first.</p>
<h2>Times change</h2>
<p>Another challenge with labeling justices’ views is that politics change over time. Today’s conservative may be yesterday’s liberal. For instance, analyzing the 1908 ruling in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1900-1940/208us412">Muller v. Oregon</a>, judicial politics authors Lee Epstein and Thomas G. Walker write, “<a href="https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/constitutional-law-changing-america-rights-liberties-and-justice">the Supreme Court upheld a state law</a> that set a maximum number on the hours women (but not men) could work.”</p>
<p>“How would you, as a twenty-first century student, view such an opinion?” Epstein and Walker write. “You probably would classify it as conservative because it seems to patronize and protect women. But in the context of the early 1900s, most considered Muller to be a liberal ruling because it allowed the government to regulate business.”</p>
<p>Making matters even more complicated, it’s not always clear-cut whether a ruling is conservative or liberal in its own time. </p>
<p>Take the Supreme Court’s 1992 decision in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1991/90-7675">R.A.V. v. City of St. Paul</a>, where the court considered the conviction of a person prosecuted under a local hate-crime ordinance for burning a cross outside a Black family’s home. The justices unanimously struck down that conviction, saying it unconstitutionally restricted free speech based on the content of that speech. A liberal could view this as a victory because free speech was upheld. A conservative could also claim victory because the ruling restricts the power of local governments.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nine people in black robes, sitting in two rows against a red curtain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549680/original/file-20230921-22-5bv19h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The current Supreme Court is not always as split as its frequently cited 6-3 conservative majority might suggest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/justices-of-the-us-supreme-court-pose-for-their-official-news-photo/1243793662?adppopup=true">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
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<h2>Shifting considerations</h2>
<p>Justices are not always easy to pigeonhole, either. For instance, Gorsuch votes along conservative lines on economic issues but on more liberal grounds on issues involving Native American rights. </p>
<p>Gorsuch joined four other conservative justices in the 2022 <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-1530">West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency</a> decision striking down a power plant regulation because the EPA’s regulation exceeded the authority Congress had granted to the agency.</p>
<p>But he also wrote the majority decision in the 2020 ruling on <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2019/18-9526">McGirt v. Oklahoma</a>, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-upholds-american-indian-treaty-promises-orders-oklahoma-to-follow-federal-law-142459">upheld sovereignty promises</a> the federal government made to several tribes in 19th century treaties.</p>
<p>The justices themselves often reject the idea of judicial partisanship. In an October 2018 speech, Roberts paraphrased Kavanaugh, saying, “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chief-justice-roberts-emphasizes-supreme-courts-independence-1539735984">We do not sit on opposite sides of an aisle</a>, we do not caucus in separate rooms, we do not serve one party or one interest. … We serve one nation.”</p>
<p>A month later, then-President Donald Trump criticized Judge Jon Tigar of the U.S. District Court in Northern California <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/21/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-calls-out-trump-for-his-attack-on-a-judge-1011203">as an “Obama judge,” because of who appointed him</a>, in his ruling on migrants and asylum policies. Roberts again rejected the criticism: “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-immigration-c4b34f9639e141069c08cf1e3deb6b84">We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges</a>, Bush judges or Clinton judges,” he wrote in a statement to The Associated Press. “What we do have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them.” </p>
<p>Whether you agree with Roberts or not, it’s clearly true that judges, over the courses of their careers, generally exhibit traits that are more nuanced than just “liberal” or “conservative.”</p>
<p><em>LaGrange College undergraduates Ema Turner and Jenna Pittman contributed to the research for this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John A. Tures does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ‘most divided’ Supreme Court ever may have been in 1941, when seven of the nine justices were New Deal supporters appointed by the same president, Franklin D. Roosevelt.John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140382023-09-21T20:45:52Z2023-09-21T20:45:52ZRupert Murdoch: His Fox News legacy is one of lies, with little accountability, and political power that rose from the belief in his power − 3 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549650/original/file-20230921-26-atkrcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C18%2C4155%2C2766&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rupert Murdoch attends the 2019 Vanity Fair Oscars party on Feb. 24, 2019, in Beverly Hills, Calif.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rupert-murdoch-attends-the-2019-vanity-fair-oscar-party-news-photo/1132383737?adppopup=true">Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rupert Murdoch, 92, one of the world’s most influential modern media figures, announced on Sept. 21, 2023, that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/21/media/rupert-murdoch-steps-down-fox/index.html">he is stepping down as</a> chair of Fox Corp. and executive chairman of News Corp. By mid-November, he will no longer be at the helm of the multibillion-dollar media empire that has stirred so much controversy over decades. </p>
<p>Through Fox News, Murdoch is leaving a lasting impression on American journalism and politics. It just may not be what most people think.</p>
<p>Here are three essential reads from The Conversation about Murdoch and Fox News and how they have shaped the American media and political landscapes.</p>
<h2>1. So-called journalists can lie with near total impunity</h2>
<p>Following the 2020 presidential election, Fox hosts repeatedly – and falsely – accused Dominion Voting Systems, a voting technology company, of rigging the contest to ensure then-President Donald Trump lost his bid for reelection. Dominion challenged those lies <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2021/03/26/fox-dominion-lawsuit-defamation/">in a US$1.6 billion defamation lawsuit</a> against Fox News in March 2021.</p>
<p>The lawsuit was settled in April 2023 for $787.5 million. During pretrial testimony, Murdoch admitted that key Fox personalities knowingly lied about election fraud in the 2020 presidential election on their shows.</p>
<p>Before the settlement was reached, <a href="https://www.american.edu/soc/faculty/jwatson.cfm">John C. Watson</a>, an associate professor of journalism at American University, wrote that the case revealed a powerful truth about American journalism: In the news business, corporations can hire anyone they want and call them journalists because the profession doesn’t have standardized requirements.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/anyone-can-claim-to-be-a-journalist-or-a-news-organization-and-publish-lies-with-almost-total-impunity-202083">Anyone can claim to be a journalist</a>, irrespective of their actual function. Any business can claim to be a news organization. Functioning irresponsibly in either role is largely protected by the First Amendment and is therefore optional,” Watson wrote. </p>
<p>“Neither journalists nor the news organizations they personify have to be truthful unless they want to. Lying in the press is unethical but does not necessarily strip liars of the protections provided by the First Amendment.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anyone-can-claim-to-be-a-journalist-or-a-news-organization-and-publish-lies-with-almost-total-impunity-202083">Anyone can claim to be a journalist or a news organization, and publish lies with almost total impunity</a>
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<h2>2. Fox News’ settlement with Dominion Voting Systems was a win for all media</h2>
<p>After Fox and Dominion settled the lawsuit, each side claimed victory. Dominion, declaring that “truth matters,” said its reputation had been vindicated.</p>
<p>And Fox conceded that it had to acknowledge “<a href="https://press.foxnews.com/2023/04/fox-news-and-dominion-voting-systems-reach-settlement">the Court’s rulings finding certain claims about Dominion to be false</a>.” But the news giant also maintained that the settlement was a victory for Fox, because it reflected the organization’s commitment to the highest journalistic standards.</p>
<p>Post-settlement posturing aside, <a href="https://law.umn.edu/profiles/jane-kirtley">Jane E. Kirtley</a>, a professor of media ethics and law at the University of Minnesota, wrote that the settlement helped protect all media outlets over the long run in legal fights over their coverage.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fox-news-settlement-with-dominion-voting-systems-is-good-news-for-all-media-outlets-204095">I hold no brief for Fox</a>. But had the Dominion case gone to the jury, the inevitable appeal by whomever lost would give the Supreme Court the chance to reconsider and possibly eliminate the New York Times v. Sullivan standard that protects all news media of all political stripes,” she wrote. “At least two justices, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, have indicated they are eager to do just that, even though it has been the constitutional standard for nearly 60 years.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fox-news-settlement-with-dominion-voting-systems-is-good-news-for-all-media-outlets-204095">Why Fox News' settlement with Dominion Voting Systems is good news for all media outlets</a>
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<h2>3. Fox News’ political power is marginal</h2>
<p>Michael J. Socolow, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=YxTJsxoAAAAJ">a professor of communication and journalism</a> at the University of Maine, wrote that any evidence offered that Fox News and Rupert Murdoch created and sustain the U.S. political climate is more circumstantial than anything else.</p>
<p>Trump’s 2016 presidential election victory is a prime example, according to Socolow. Neither Murdoch nor the late Roger Ailes, Fox News’ founder, supported Trump’s candidacy.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/fox-news-isnt-the-problem-its-the-medias-obsession-with-fox-news-114954">Ailes and Murdoch were unable to stop Republicans from voting for him</a>. But this failure to persuade Republicans in 2016 isn’t really a surprise,” Socolow writes. “Fox News couldn’t prevent (former President Barack) Obama’s election, reelection or the 2018 blue wave.”</p>
<p>Fox’s real power, Socolow suggests, is the media’s characterization of the outlet as a hugely influential political force, when its actual political power is marginal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fox-news-isnt-the-problem-its-the-medias-obsession-with-fox-news-114954">Fox News isn’t the problem, it’s the media’s obsession with Fox News</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives. It has been updated in its references to Fox hosts.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was updated on September 25 to correct the dollar amount of the Fox, Dominion lawsuit.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Rupert Murdoch is a major media figure, but he may not be as influential as most people think.Lorna Grisby, Politics & Society EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2119872023-08-30T18:15:05Z2023-08-30T18:15:05ZWhy the United States will have to accept China’s growing influence and strength<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-the-united-states-will-have-to-accept-chinas-growing-influence-and-strength" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>After wrapping up a recent four-day trip to China, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a media briefing: “<a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1603">We believe that the world is big enough for both of our countries to thrive</a>.” </p>
<p>While optimistic, Yellen’s statement is far from persuasive. It doesn’t represent the tense geopolitical landscape saturated with sanctions, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-detail-plans-restricting-some-us-investments-china-source-2023-08-09/">investment restrictions</a> and containment efforts.</p>
<p>Yellen’s was one of many visits by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/world/asia/blinken-china-xi-diplomacy.html">U.S. officials</a> to China in recent months. These overtures come on the heels of concentrated American efforts against what the U.S. perceives to be China’s increasing expansion and assertiveness in Asia. President Joe Biden’s administration has made its intentions clear about maintaining the status quo in Asia, and Beijing is responding cautiously.</p>
<p>How did relations between the U.S. and China become so antagonistic over the last decade?</p>
<h2>Conflicting policies</h2>
<p>In a news conference with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in 2002, then-President George W. Bush said: “<a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/02/20020221-7.html">China’s future is for the Chinese people to decide</a>.” But the current state of relations indicates the path the Chinese chose for themselves is not sitting well with the U.S.</p>
<p>In 2009, Secretary of State <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2009a/01/115450.htm">Hillary Clinton suggested the Barack Obama administration wanted to go further than Bush had in developing the China-U.S. relationship</a>: </p>
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<p>“We need a comprehensive dialogue with China. The strategic dialogue that was begun in the Bush administration turned into an economic dialogue.” </p>
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<p>The Obama-era approach then culminated in a comprehensive pivot to <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament">the Asia-Pacific region in 2011</a> that resulted in American economic, security and diplomatic resources shifting towards the area.</p>
<p>During Donald Trump’s administration, U.S. policy priorities on China shifted back to economic relations as the trade <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade/trump-calls-china-trade-deficit-horrible-ahead-of-asia-visit-idINKBN1D15AM">deficit between the two nations</a> became a central point of contention. The Trump approach was no longer dialogue, but rather direct confrontation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-china-u-s-conflict-is-about-much-more-than-trade-96406">The China-U.S. conflict is about much more than trade</a>
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<p>Under Biden, China <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/12/fact-sheet-the-biden-harris-administrations-national-security-strategy/">is deemed a “competitor</a>.” </p>
<p>Policy choices have included reducing economic dependence on Chinese supply chains, the creation of the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/15/joint-leaders-statement-on-aukus/">Australia, United Kingdom and United States partnership known as AUKUS</a> and <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3350297/new-edca-sites-named-in-the-philippines/">gaining U.S. access to four additional military bases in the Philippines</a>. </p>
<h2>Chinese pragmatism</h2>
<p>While America’s China policy has transformed into confrontation, China’s overall foreign policy trajectory has largely been pragmatic and linear. </p>
<p>Since the 1990s, China has been explicit in its grand objective of a <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/234074?ln=en">multi-polar world</a> in which global politics is shaped by several dominant states.</p>
<p>When Xi Jinping ascended to the presidency in 2013, this aspiration became increasingly overt and assertive. A year earlier, Vice-President Xi announced China’s “two centennial goals” — one calling for China to be “<a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1277160.shtml">prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful</a>” with influence over the global world order by 2049.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in dark suits with red ties shake hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545362/original/file-20230829-16-tnyyuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Hu Jintao, left, poses with his successor Xi Jinping after Xi was elected at a plenary session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing in March 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To analyze Chinese-American relations, the metaphor of the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/">Thucydides’ trap</a> — in which a rising power challenges an existing one — may not be the most appropriate analogy. And phrases like “the rise of China” don’t do justice to China’s history. </p>
<p>China has been a great power, regionally at least, for thousands of years and was a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13010">manufacturing behemoth even in the 1750s</a>.</p>
<p>Geopolitically, the U.S. continues to retain a military and diplomatic edge over China. It has demonstrated its will and capability to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/">determine the rules of engagement in China’s own backyard</a>. </p>
<p>But even though China trails the U.S. in many areas, it doesn’t need American support as much as it used to. Astonishingly rapid development in the last two decades is probably still far from China’s most creative and innovative phase.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nato-should-tread-carefully-in-southeast-asia-where-memories-of-colonialism-linger-205261">NATO should tread carefully in Southeast Asia, where memories of colonialism linger</a>
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<h2>American limitations</h2>
<p>There are also limits to the American field of influence in the region.</p>
<p>The U.S. has failed to move beyond strengthening existing alliances and fortifying its military installations. Its geo-strategic options are also limited. If, for example, the Americans shored up Japan’s offensive capabilities or deepened their partnership with India to challenge China, they would be inadvertently creating a multi-polar world.</p>
<p>China <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/world/asia/china-us-xi-jinping.html">is not deterred</a> by American policy. It is <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/12/europe-china-policy-brussels-macron-xi-jinping-von-der-leyen-sanchez/">countering it through the art of persuasion and dialogue</a>. But it too has exhibited its limits. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/solomon-islands-signs-controversial-policing-pact-with-china">a few exceptions</a>, China has failed to convince even its neighbours of the sincerity of its intentions. A majority of Asian nations are either U.S. allies <a href="https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/04/09/pm-asean-should-remain-neutral-amid--us-china-rivalry">or neutral</a>.</p>
<p>The ongoing tit-for-tat between the two nuclear and highly interdependent powers will continue to shape their relations, which is concerning for global peace and stability.</p>
<p>Will the U.S. peacefully share global influence with China? Will China abide by its <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/201407/t20140701_678184.html">Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence</a> and its <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/zggcddwjw100ggs/jszgddzg/202208/t20220826_10754228.html">claim that it will never seek world domination</a>? It’s hard to say.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1516979705932808192"}"></div></p>
<h2>Four indicators of what lies ahead</h2>
<p>Several indicators, however, point to a somewhat balanced co-existence between the two as dominant power centres in the coming decades. </p>
<p>First, the U.S. has been unsuccessful in inhibiting China’s growth and expansion, and will likely be incapable of preventing the second-biggest economy from achieving its centennial goals.</p>
<p>Second, China is already present around the globe in terms of human capital, investment, manufactured products — and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/06/29/across-19-countries-more-people-see-the-u-s-than-china-favorably-but-more-see-chinas-influence-growing/">world public opinion about China is changing</a>.</p>
<p>Third, to use the Taoist metaphor, <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/taoism/">China is a hub that has many spokes</a> and has the capacity and will to invent many more. The hub is united and efficient; an economic downturn will only slow the social organism, not cause it to collapse.</p>
<p>When <a href="https://time.com/3901419/space-station-no-chinese/">China was barred from the International Space Station after the passage of a law by U.S. Congress</a> in 2011, for example, it constructed <a href="https://www.space.com/tiangong-space-station">Tiangong, a permanent space station</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An Asian woman and two Asian men in blue jumpsuits smile and wave standing in front of a large red and gold chinese flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545361/original/file-20230829-21-pufgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">China’s astronauts wave as they arrive to meet the media at the Jiuquan satellite launch center near Jiuquan in western China in June 2013 before later boarding a spacecraft to dock with China’s Tiangong 1 space lab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andy Wong)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Fourth, the rise of non-liberal democratic regimes and weaknesses in democracies are creating a situation where some nations are gravitating towards China while others are moving away from the U.S.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-fuelled-chaos-shows-democracy-is-in-trouble-heres-how-to-change-course-152728">Trump-fuelled chaos shows democracy is in trouble — here's how to change course</a>
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<p>That said, political reason is too often at the mercy of short-term calculations. </p>
<p>The U.S. has shown no interest in sharing world leadership, nor has China shown any interest in deviating from its global aspirations. But even though they may appear to be on a collision course, it seems likely China is going to be successful in its pursuit, and both nations will ultimately learn to co-exist and thrive. </p>
<p>Until then, one can only hope that they spare the world the chaos and ugliness of power politics and use their creative energies for the betterment of the human condition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yasar Bukan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Relations between the U.S. and China have become antagonistic over the last decade. Here’s why the relationship must change.Yasar Bukan, Lecturer in Global Politics & Political Philosophy, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049722023-08-21T12:27:19Z2023-08-21T12:27:19ZPresidential pauses? What those ‘ums’ and ‘uhs’ really tell us about candidates for the White House<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542833/original/file-20230815-19-dgdqtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3178%2C1851&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Up for debate? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-october-22-2020-news-photo/1229229316?adppopup=true">Brendan Smialowski/Jim Watson/Morrry Gash/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nine. That is the number of “uhs” that former President Barack Obama uttered in a period of two minutes during a 2012 presidential debate. Other Obama “uh” counters, such as <a href="https://www.ling.upenn.edu/people/liberman">University of Pennsylvania linguist Mark Liberman</a>, clocked him as using “uhs” and “ums” – hesitation markers known as “filled pauses” in linguistspeak – <a href="https://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=35174">roughly every 19 words</a> during one interview. </p>
<p>By comparison, former President Donald Trump rarely uses them at all – as infrequently as once every 117 words.</p>
<p>Considering Obama’s skill as an <a href="https://psmag.com/news/the-effectiveness-of-obamas-oratory">orator garners high praise</a>, while Trump’s eloquence is less often so regaled, what’s to be made of this great, uh, imbalance? </p>
<p>In ordinary circumstances, maybe not too much. </p>
<p>But heading into the Republican presidential primary debates, which <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/10/politics/first-republican-debate-who-has-qualified/index.html">kick off on Aug. 23, 2023</a>, you can bet some viewers and political commentators will be poring over every utterance of the candidates for clues about how they might perform as nominee of the party. </p>
<p>And going into the 2024 presidential race, expect more on Biden’s speech as a reflection of his competency, along the lines of the newspaper columnist who <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/05/06/when-bidens-own-people-dont-trust-him-to-speak-we-have-no-real-president/">dismissed the president as</a> the “wonderful Wizard of Ahs and Ums.”</p>
<h2>So who is prone to ‘umming’?</h2>
<p>But what if a bit of hesitation turns out to be not such a bad thing? </p>
<p>In my work <a href="https://www.unr.edu/english/people/valerie-fridland">as a linguist</a> and author of “<a href="https://abc.nl/book-details/like-literally-dude/$9780593298329">Like, Literally, Dude: Arguing for the Good in Bad English</a>,” I uncovered surprising evidence that filled pauses are not the mark of incompetence and inarticulateness they are often held to be. In fact, research suggests filled pauses often aid understanding. Studies into their use also reveal why we utter them and who is more prone to using them.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/variation-and-change-in-the-use-of-hesitation-markers-in-germanic">research on languages ranging from English to Dutch, German, Danish and Norwegian</a> has shown that “uhs” are more often uttered by men and older people, while “ums” are <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/76394539.pdf">the up-and-coming trend among women and those who don’t remember a time before TikTok</a>. </p>
<p>And then there <a href="https://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=14015">are the geographical preferences</a>. Southerners and New Englanders tend to “uh,” while Midwesterners prefer “um” – at least when tweeting.</p>
<p>Perhaps even more surprising, as someone’s education level and socioeconomic status go up, <a href="https://doi.org//10.1075/ijcl.16.2.02tot">research suggests</a> so does their rate of “umming” and “uhing.”</p>
<h2>Deliberate debate device</h2>
<p>Nonetheless, filled pauses have long been treated as the bane of public speaking and a mark of anxiety.</p>
<p>Yet psycholinguists who study speech hiccups <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010-0277(02)00017-3">suggest much the opposite</a>: Filled pauses are less about our speech struggles and more about signaling upcoming linguistic and semantic complexity. That is, “ums” and “uhs” emerge because we are doing more work in terms of planning and executing the next thing we need to say. </p>
<p>What this means is that filled pauses are found to most often occur right before speakers describe <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-818X.2008.00068.x">more abstract or difficult concepts</a> or when they use <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/002383097902200301">less familiar or uncommon words</a>. “Ums” and “uhs” also increase when speakers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/002383096500800302">start a sentence</a>, since <a href="https://doi.org/10.1006/cogp.1998.0693">they are mapping out the whole sentence structure</a>.</p>
<p>Their use also increases when <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0022-3514.60.3.362">there are a number of competing word options to choose from</a>, like when selecting among novel and politically advantageous adjectives to describe the health of the economy or an aging opponent.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a suit looks downward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542975/original/file-20230816-22-3y9yj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542975/original/file-20230816-22-3y9yj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542975/original/file-20230816-22-3y9yj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542975/original/file-20230816-22-3y9yj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542975/original/file-20230816-22-3y9yj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542975/original/file-20230816-22-3y9yj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542975/original/file-20230816-22-3y9yj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Is Republican presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis an ‘ummer’?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/florida-governor-and-2024-republican-presidential-hopeful-news-photo/1561386818?adppopup=true">Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In short, they are used in places where harder thinking is required. These are exactly the linguistic challenges that politicians face when answering debate questions requiring complex terminology and strategic word choices. </p>
<p>Sometimes “ums” and “uhs” simply buy a speaker processing time to figure out what to say when they are uncertain. Taking a verbal pause instead of a silent one makes it crystal clear that one still intends to contribute to the conversation – particularly vital in a debate where floor time is the equivalent of political gold.</p>
<h2>‘Uh … I’m talking here!’</h2>
<p>Remarkably, in addition to helping speakers come up with what they want to say, “ums” and “uhs” also do a listener a service by alerting them to the fact that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010-0277(02)00017-3">there’s going to be a delay</a> and cues them to listen up because <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03194926">something harder to comprehend</a> is coming their way.</p>
<p>This signaling helps listeners understand what you are saying. That’s because, even past our teenage years, we are still fairly lazy listeners. Adding in an “um” or “uh” can help tear the listener away from their iPhone or other distractions and alert them to the fact that something new and difficult is coming up.</p>
<p>For instance, if we had been having a conversation about dogs, and I start a new sentence by saying “The daw …” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00723.x">psycholinguistic evidence</a> tells us that your brain goes right to “dog” without even waiting to hear the rest of the word. But what if I was actually going to say donkey? Then you are thrown for a loop. But if I first inserted a filled pause, such as “the, uh, donkey,” listeners are much quicker to identify a new word in the sentence, as the “uh” seems to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1021980931292">alert us to expect something unexpected</a>.</p>
<p>Another plus? The listener would be more likely to recall that we talked about donkeys later on, as a preceding filled pause has also been shown to have a positive effect on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2006.10.010">word recognition and recall</a>. </p>
<h2>The ponderous pause</h2>
<p>So, why such a bad rap for a speech feature that signals deep thinking and helps listeners comprehend what people are saying? </p>
<p>Probably because of the company it keeps. Filled pauses have often been grouped with other features of what is termed “disfluent” speech, such as repetitions, slips of the tongue and restarts, such as “wh-what?” </p>
<p>The <a href="https://pep-web.org/browse/document/SE.006.0000A">Freudian view</a> of such speech tics as symptoms of unconscious worries and desires drove much of the early research on such features. Though <a href="https://pep-web.org/browse/document/SE.006.0000A">early psychological research</a> did not find that filled pauses strongly correlated with anxiety, the stigma stuck around and affects regular people and presidents alike.</p>
<p>For instance, Biden has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/us/politics/joe-biden-debate-gaffes.html">been called out</a> for his combined filled pauses, repetitions and restarts, which have been blamed on a number of factors ranging from age-related confusion to public-speaking anxiety. </p>
<p>While it is true that <a href="https://doi.org//10.1037/a0019424">older speakers tend to use more filled pauses</a> than younger speakers, which could be <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/language-in-the-wild/202107/language-comprehension-and-the-aging-brain">related to age-related decline</a> in working memory, Biden <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2023/01/10/normalizing-stutters-bidens-and-his-own-00077269">also has a stutter</a>, which can affect filled pause use in ways that make it hard to compare his use of them with other presidents. </p>
<p>The reality is, like it or not, we all populate our pauses from time to time. As can be seen in the Obama vs. Trump filled-pause rates, we also have a unique signature pause pattern. In other words, some of us are, to put it in the words of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02175503">one pause researcher</a>, “heavy ummers,” while others are “um-avoiders.” </p>
<p>What doesn’t change, however, is that they signal cognitive heavy lifting ahead.</p>
<p>So, as we head into the season of presidential stumping and debate, perhaps we can look past the pause when deciding how to weed out the good candidates from the bad.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Valerie M. Fridland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Long treated as a sign of anxiety or a delaying tactic, ‘filled pauses’ are a linguistic trick to signal that what you are about to say might be complicated.Valerie M. Fridland, Professor of Linguistics, University of Nevada, RenoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2104442023-08-08T19:07:18Z2023-08-08T19:07:18ZKamala Harris has tied the record for the most tie-breaking votes in Senate history – a brief overview of what vice presidents do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540877/original/file-20230802-6332-61kj04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C21%2C4690%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to cast a tiebreaking vote in the U.S. Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-kamala-harris-arrives-at-the-senate-chamber-news-photo/1500382345">Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-kamala-harris-joe-bidens-pick-for-vice-president-144122">Kamala Harris</a> became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first African American, the first person of South Asian descent</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/before-kamala-harris-became-bidens-running-mate-shirley-chisholm-and-other-black-women-aimed-for-the-white-house-143655">first</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/call-in-the-women-chrystia-freeland-and-kamala-harriss-new-roles-respond-to-the-times-144896">woman</a> to serve as vice president of the United States.</p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-tiebreaker-vote-db39d642bc423f4984b0ad7b32139ecb">she made history again</a> by casting her 31st tie-breaking vote in the Senate, matching only one other vice president’s record for such votes. <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/07/12/harris-ties-calhouns-191-year-old-record-for-breaking-senate-ties/">John C. Calhoun</a>, who was vice president from 1825 to 1832, needed all eight years of his term to reach that number. In contrast, Harris has only been in office for two and a half years.</p>
<p>If her tie-breaking continues, Harris could end up as one of the most <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3689844-why-kamala-harris-is-already-among-the-most-consequential-vice-presidents-in-history/">consequential</a> vice presidents in history, casting the deciding votes on several laws, <a href="https://theconversation.com/states-pick-judges-very-differently-from-us-supreme-court-appointments-160142">judicial nominations</a> and spending plans. However, this distinction says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.</p>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times.</p>
<p>Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Historically, ties have been rare. Since 1789, only <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/TieVotes.htm">299 tie-breaking votes</a> have been cast, and 12 vice presidents, including current President Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/VPTies.pdf">never cast a single one</a>.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-1/clause-6/succession-clause-for-the-presidency">As written, it is unclear</a> whether this meant that a vice president became the new president or was simply serving in an acting capacity. This was later clarified with the passage of the 25th Amendment, which states that “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">the Vice President shall become President</a>.” The 25th Amendment also outlines how to fill a vacancy in the vice presidency, and it provides a mechanism for the vice president to serve temporarily as president if a president becomes “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-25th-amendment-says-about-presidents-who-are-unable-to-serve-102825">unable to discharge the powers and duties</a> of his office.”</p>
<p>Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents, like presidents, can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” </p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">serve as</a> – or replace – the president, vice presidents are really only obligated to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tiebreaking vote</a> in the Senate. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” </p>
<p>However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “the vice president should be <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died, likely of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">kept the atomic bomb a secret</a> from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against Sen. John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Sen. Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” </p>
<p>Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Biden served 36 years in the Senate before leaving to become Barack Obama’s vice president. When he agreed to be Obama’s running mate, Biden said he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions were being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An ally in an increasingly divided Senate</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">Under the rules of the U.S. Senate</a>, if just one lawmaker doesn’t want a bill to advance, they can attempt to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HJuaQL3KRI">delay</a> its passage indefinitely via <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-us-states-dont-have-a-filibuster-nor-do-many-democratic-countries-156093">the filibuster</a>. A supermajority of three-fifths of the senators, or 60 of the 100, is required <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-senate-filibuster-explained-and-why-it-should-be-allowed-to-die-123551">to stop the filibuster</a> – or signal that one would not succeed – and proceed to a vote.</p>
<p>Over the years, the Senate has made <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/23/13709518/budget-reconciliation-explained">various procedural</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/nuclear-option-what-it-why-it-matters-n742076">changes</a> to the filibuster, limiting when it can be used.</p>
<p>The end result of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/filibuster-reform-short-guide">these reforms</a> is that the Senate is now empowered to do more with just a simple majority. In addition, in recent years, the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">Senate has become increasingly divided</a>. Together, this has created the conditions that have empowered Harris to cast so many tie-breaking votes so quickly, solidifying both her place in history and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-might-drop-his-vice-president-and-reasons-why-he-shouldnt-199655">her place alongside Biden in the 2024 election</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-vice-president-do-152467">article</a> initially published Jan. 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kamala Harris is on track to be one of the most influential vice presidents in history. This says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084432023-07-31T19:26:12Z2023-07-31T19:26:12ZThe world’s most powerful democracies were built on the suffering of others<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540042/original/file-20230730-17-i1imbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C3957%2C2452&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this July 2013 photo, supporters of Egypt's democratically elected President Mohammed Morsi chant slogans against Egyptian Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi at Nasr City, in Cairo, Egypt. El-Sissi removed Morsi two weeks earlier with support from the U.S. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-worlds-most-powerful-democracies-were-built-on-the-suffering-of-others" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>United States President Joe Biden has cast the conflict between the western world and its competitors <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/25/politics/biden-autocracies-versus-democracies/index.html">as a clash between “democracies and autocracies.”</a> This masks the American desire for power and the complex realities of creating democracy.</p>
<p>Democracy is supposed to <a href="https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/democracy">base a state’s legitimacy in its accountability to its people</a>. It supports people’s freedoms and human rights. What these ideals mean in practice and how to achieve them are difficult questions.</p>
<p>But it’s clear the U.S. is no longer a credible champion for, or exemplar of, democracy.</p>
<p>In fact, it has a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/17/sunday-review/russia-isnt-the-only-one-meddling-in-elections-we-do-it-too.html">long history of overthrowing</a> and undermining democracies abroad. </p>
<h2>A troubled record with democracy</h2>
<p><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/02/egypt-coup-morsi-arab-spring-us-obama-democracy-middle-east/">Barack Obama’s administration, for example, greenlit the military coup</a> that <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2023/7/7/shadi_hamid_obama_egypt_arab_spring">overthrew Egypt’s democracy and ended the Arab Spring</a> uprisings in 2013. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1677300748806246400"}"></div></p>
<p>The U.S. also has a long history of <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/american-tradition-supporting-authoritarianism">supporting authoritarian regimes</a>. It has made it clear that <a href="https://www.rolandparis.com/single-post/democracies-are-certainly-friends-of-canada-but-what-about-the-in-between-countries">being authoritarian does not impede</a> any country from joining its <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/12/fact-sheet-the-biden-harris-administrations-national-security-strategy/">coalition against China</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. itself is a failing democracy — or perhaps a better description is a <a href="https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-autumn-2020-issue-no-17/democracy-or-plutocracy---americas-existential-question">plutocracy</a> with <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014/">democratic embellishments</a>. </p>
<p>American politics <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/opinion/citizens-united-corruption-pacs.html">have been corrupted</a> <a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/168044/united-states-tax-havens-south-dakota-plutocracy">by money</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/12/republican-states-rights-restrictions/621101/">civil rights</a> are under assault, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/17/martin-luther-king-jr-march-family-activists-voting-rights">voter suppression</a> is rife and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/opinion/polarization-nationalism-patriotism-history.html">distrust and social division</a> are ubiquitous. In 2021, <a href="https://www.allianceofdemocracies.org/initiatives/the-copenhagen-democracy-summit/dpi-2021/">only 50 per cent of Americans</a> said they believed they live in a democracy. </p>
<p>Russia <a href="https://www.csis.org/blogs/strategic-technologies-blog/russia-ramps-global-elections-interference-lessons-united-states">has used social media to interfere in elections around the world</a>. China has tried to <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2023/china-target-diaspora-canada/">influence diaspora communities</a>. But there’s not much evidence these activities are co-ordinated and they pale <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/12/is-u.s.-hypocritical-to-criticize-russian-election-meddling-pub-75780">compared to the ubiquity and influence of American interference</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. has not been “defending democracy.” It’s been defending its power and privileges in an unequal global system.</p>
<h2>Western democracy’s grim origins</h2>
<p>This is not the only way the concept of democracy has been misused by the United States and other western nations.</p>
<p>Many countries in the West provide their citizens with the highest living standards and freedoms in the world. How they got there is something many conveniently forget.</p>
<p>The western world’s <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/questioning-western-nations-moral-values/">tendency to see itself as the pinnacle of civilization and morality</a> has been used to justify global domination and intervention in the rest of the world. </p>
<p>The contemporary successes of some of the most powerful democracies are the result of the subjugation and exploitation of other people both within and beyond their borders. The U.S. was <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/11/us-genocide-china-indigenous-peoples-day-columbus/">built on genocide</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2019/8/16/20806069/slavery-economy-capitalism-violence-cotton-edward-baptist">and slavery</a>. </p>
<p>Canada is only <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/trudeau-s-acknowledgment-of-indigenous-genocide-could-have-legal-impacts-experts-1.5457668">starting to acknowledge its history of cultural genocide</a>. Every European state that <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economic-impact-colonialism">practised colonialism profited</a> from that brutality. </p>
<p>The British <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2018/12/19/how-britain-stole-45-trillion-from-india">extracted more than $45 trillion of wealth from India</a> between 1765 and 1938 and <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/watch-shashi-tharoor-says-britain-has-historical-amnesia-about-colonial-empire-in-india/story-an8J11lhdYRGBxyoARxQgK.html">destroyed the country’s economy</a>. </p>
<p>The U.K.’s industrial revolution was financed by Indian plunder. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/12/2/how-british-colonial-policy-killed-100-million-indians">Tens of millions of Indians</a> died as the result of Britain’s economic policies. During the Second World War, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/29/winston-churchill-policies-contributed-to-1943-bengal-famine-study">Winston Churchill deliberately</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/4/1/churchills-policies-to-blame-for-1943-bengal-famine-study">implemented policies that created and exacerbated</a> the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03086534.2019.1638622">Bengal Famine</a> that killed more than three million Indians. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Soldiers in colourful uniforms and head gear march in unison." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540043/original/file-20230730-63311-xahusw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540043/original/file-20230730-63311-xahusw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540043/original/file-20230730-63311-xahusw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540043/original/file-20230730-63311-xahusw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540043/original/file-20230730-63311-xahusw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540043/original/file-20230730-63311-xahusw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540043/original/file-20230730-63311-xahusw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian paramilitary soldiers march during a rehearsal for the Indian Independence Day parade in Srinagar, India. India celebrates its 1947 independence from British colonial rule every August 15.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hiding the truth</h2>
<p>Western amnesia about its brutal history is deliberate. As the British Empire ended, it launched <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03086534.2017.1294256">Operation Legacy</a>, the <a href="https://jacobin.com/2016/11/british-empire-kenya-oman-ireland-state-secrecy/">destruction of millions of documents</a> detailing the full extent of British atrocities in its colonies. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Black boys stand beside a toppled statue in a black and white photo from the 1960s." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540044/original/file-20230730-3774-sx1217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540044/original/file-20230730-3774-sx1217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540044/original/file-20230730-3774-sx1217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540044/original/file-20230730-3774-sx1217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540044/original/file-20230730-3774-sx1217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540044/original/file-20230730-3774-sx1217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540044/original/file-20230730-3774-sx1217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 1961 photo, the bust of former Belgian King Leopold II lies on the ground on the Avenue General De Gaulle in Stanleyville, Congo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Belgium hid the truth of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14623520305651">King Leopold’s vicious exploitation of the Belgian Congo</a> that involved the murder of 10 million people. </p>
<p>In the U.S., the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/20/1008449181/understanding-the-republican-opposition-to-critical-race-theory">political right’s campaign</a> against <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-anti-critical-race-theory-movement-will-profoundly-affect-public-education/">critical race theory</a> stifles the historical <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/how-a-conservative-activist-invented-the-conflict-over-critical-race-theory">reality and legacy of American racism</a>. </p>
<p>Democracy is not a cure-all for human misery and inequity. For impoverished states, democracy can actually exacerbate social divisions. </p>
<p>Exactly what makes a democracy successful is unclear, <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/democracy-alone-is-no-guarantee-of-development">though it seems to lie in “good governance</a>.” What is clear is that democracies cannot simply be wished into existence. Most western states can only offer examples of democracy-building that have relied upon extreme military, political and social violence.</p>
<p>Democracy in principle is a desirable goal. Most of the world supports the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/responsibility-protect">“responsibility to protect”</a> doctrine — the idea that states bear basic obligations to their citizens. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1163/1875-984X-14010001">However</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogy045">most do not support military interventions</a> to further those ostensible goals. They are aware of the great difficulties involved in making democracy work. </p>
<p>Western states argue that only democracies are legitimate states because they are supported by the consent of their citizens. That isn’t the case for most authoritarian states.</p>
<h2>Chinese prosperity</h2>
<p>However, China — the primary target of the American “democracy versus authoritarianism” campaign — complicates the “democratic narrative.” A <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/07/long-term-survey-reveals-chinese-government-satisfaction/">meticulous, long-term Harvard study</a> found that the vast majority of Chinese citizens support their national government. Other surveys have reached the same general conclusion. </p>
<p>This support may reflect, in part, <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/05/what-the-west-gets-wrong-about-china">China’s cultural and historical norms and experiences</a> but it is mostly attributable to how much the lives of the Chinese people have improved. </p>
<p>The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has overseen 40 years of economic growth and technological development unprecedented in world history. Chinese GDP per capita <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-per-capita">increased from US$195 in 1980 to US$12,556 in 2021</a>. As many as <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/01/lifting-800-million-people-out-of-poverty-new-report-looks-at-lessons-from-china-s-experience">800 million people have risen out of poverty</a>. Like any government, democratic or not, the CCP’s legitimacy reflects its performance. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Thousands of people at a night-time celebration hold up their smartphones to take pictures of fireworks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540045/original/file-20230730-104526-61wdf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540045/original/file-20230730-104526-61wdf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540045/original/file-20230730-104526-61wdf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540045/original/file-20230730-104526-61wdf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540045/original/file-20230730-104526-61wdf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540045/original/file-20230730-104526-61wdf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540045/original/file-20230730-104526-61wdf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 2019 photo, people use smartphones to film fireworks exploding at Tiananmen Square as part of a gala evening commemorating the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andy Wong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China is <a href="http://lv.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/xwdt/202211/t20221104_10800517.htm">not, however, aggressively promoting its political model</a> around the world, unlike the West’s often violent, coercive and selective push for liberal democracy.</p>
<p>Western democracies can best help the world by doing more to live up to their highest ideals and approach their relations with the rest of the world with humility borne from historical awareness.</p>
<p>The one existential threat the entire planet faces is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/05/hottest-day-ever-recorded/">climate change</a>. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/opinion/america-china-clean-energy.html">Co-operation within the entire international community</a> is more important than ever and will require global economic and political transformation. </p>
<p>The American and western strategy of fomenting global division to maintain a harmful status quo is counterproductive at best.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Narine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Western democracies can best help the world by doing more to live up to their highest ideals and approaching their relations with the rest of the world with humility borne from historical awareness.Shaun Narine, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2103972023-07-28T14:12:58Z2023-07-28T14:12:58ZThe end of Twitter – how Elon Musk’s rebrand to X could foster the platform’s dark side<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539785/original/file-20230727-15-bugw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3988%2C2586&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/new-twitter-logo-x-twitterx-flying-2336970507">Adryan Samuel Hutagalung / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Alas, poor Twitter; we knew it well. Or, at least, we thought we did. Despite never occupying more than <a href="https://backlinko.com/twitter-users">10% of social media’s online presence</a>, western audiences are very aware of the platform. That’s not least because of the way that the mass media echoes and amplifies the controversies and outrage born on Twitter. </p>
<p>Well before the fury at current owner Elon Musk’s changes, the platform occupied a strange dual position in our consciousness. It was a place for the slow murmurings of a sleepy populace gossiping around the village well, but also a <a href="https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/hate-spreads-faster-on-twitter-evidence-from-44-news-outlets">forum for vicious, poisonous invective</a>. Birdsong calms and soothes us, but also conveys a warning: “This is my tree. Come any closer and I’ll attack!”</p>
<p>Perhaps, then, the demise of the Twitter brand was inevitable. A brand acts like a scar in the mind of a consumer, a reminder of past encounters. Allowing the “shadow side” of a brand to be expressed confuses us. It perhaps reminds us of our inner demons – to which we gave vent on the website. </p>
<p>This Jekyll and Hyde nature of Twitter has been both embraced and confronted by Musk. Instead of limiting the bile, <a href="https://www.engadget.com/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-has-already-emboldened-trolls-203418376.html">he has arguably acted in ways that have enabled its release</a>.</p>
<p>Twitter emerged from the ideas of several employees at <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-twitter-was-founded-2011-4?r=US&IR=T">the podcasting company Odeo in 2006</a>. Those employees included Jack Dorsey, Noah Glass, Biz Stone and Evan Williams. After encouraging an influential group of tech industry figures <a href="https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/advantage_aut_20_art6.pdf">to become early adopters</a>, Twitter subsequently experienced rapid growth, so that, by early 2010, <a href="https://www.macworld.com/article/202810/twitter-22.html">users were sending 50 million tweets a day.</a></p>
<p>That year, Twitter also overhauled its interface, allowing images and video to be viewed within the website for the first time. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_Twitter_by_public_figures">Celebrities started to sign up</a>, opening up new ways for fans to interact with their favourite stars. </p>
<p>But the realisation by politicians that Twitter was <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/politicians-unleashed-political-communication-on-twitter-and-in-parliament-in-western-europe/AF03501C445E752094C9B380C4E4913E">the perfect place for disseminating concise messages</a> and comments brought a whole new dimension to the site. They would eventually include the US president: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/19/us/obama-joins-twitter-universe-but-hes-not-following-you.html">Barack Obama joined the platform in 2015</a>, tweeting from the @POTUS account. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Barack Obama's Twitter page." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539926/original/file-20230728-17236-48r2yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539926/original/file-20230728-17236-48r2yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539926/original/file-20230728-17236-48r2yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539926/original/file-20230728-17236-48r2yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539926/original/file-20230728-17236-48r2yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539926/original/file-20230728-17236-48r2yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539926/original/file-20230728-17236-48r2yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Barack Obama was the first US president to stamp his mark on Twitter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/los-angeles-september-28-2017-official-723894409">Shutterstock / Pe3k</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>His successor in the role, Donald Trump, was just as enthusiastic in his use of the platform, but was much more direct in his approach, <a href="https://time.com/5099544/donald-trump-tweets-first-year/">even using it to announce policies</a>. There’s even <a href="https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/news/how-twitter-helped-trump-win-the-us-elections/">evidence</a> Twitter played a key role in his election success.</p>
<p>By this point, Twitter had well and truly become the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-digital-town-square-what-does-it-mean-when-billionaires-own-the-online-spaces-where-we-gather-182047">digital “town square”</a> Musk would later talk of when announcing his plan to buy the platform in 2022. </p>
<p>As well as creating a platform for politicians, it also played a role in political activism around the world, for example, in the Arab Spring revolutions of 2011 (although it’s precise importance <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/25/twitter-facebook-uprisings-arab-libya">has been</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2012/11/28/role-social-media-arab-uprisings/">disputed</a>). The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/26/egypt-blocks-social-media-websites">Egyptian government considered Twitter significant enough to respond by blocking it</a> along with other platforms.</p>
<p>It also became an amplifier of disinformation and misinformation. Pre-Musk, Twitter had made several efforts to crack down on this phenomenon, as well as on <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60403960">trolling</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/vidhichoudhary/2020/08/11/twitters-troll-attack-new-feature-limits-who-can-reply/">hate</a>. Among the many things levelled at Musk-era Twitter is the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-64804007">alleged reversal of these trends</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/technology/twitter-hate-speech.html">confirmed</a> <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2023-04-27/hate-speech-twitter-surged-since-elon-musk-takeover">by research</a> but <a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/171826/elon-musk-hate-speech-twitter-specific-examples">denied by Musk</a>.</p>
<h2>What X means for the brand</h2>
<p>This brings us up to Twitter’s rebranding as “X”. Rebrands come and go, some attracting opprobrium, others passing fretfully into the mists of time. Often, these adventures are underwritten by a need to draw a line under old brand associations, freeing the company to become something new, different and bigger. </p>
<p>But these can also go wrong. In 2001, with plans to expand into overseas markets, Royal Mail <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/oct/16/brands-consigned-to-the-dustbin">changed its name to Consignia</a>. A year later, after financial losses mounted, it <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/humbled-consignia-reinvented-as-royal-mail-plc-189590.html">changed the name back again</a>. </p>
<p>In other cases, rebranding allows companies to align with wider, international requirements. In the late 1990s, after 40 years in existence, the UK sweets brand Opal Fruits <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starburst_(candy)">changed its name to Starburst</a> in order to align with how the product was known abroad.</p>
<p>In the case of X, both of these vectors seem to be in play, aligning the platform formerly known as Twitter with Musk’s ambitions for an <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/26/23808796/elon-musks-x-everything-app-vision">“everything everywhere” uber-brand</a>, while creating space for growth –- both in the economic sense and the sense of an evolution into a different product.</p>
<p>X is an undefined variable. It carries connotations of buried treasure, of “tech-bro” innovation, of racy explicitness. And, more than anything, it conveys potential. The abandonment of Twitter’s brand position as light entertainment, in favour of the platform’s dark side, will surely be aided and abetted by the art deco logo.</p>
<p>Perhaps this direction, if one believes in the genius of Musk, rather than the primacy of fortune, accurately reflects our current trajectories toward ruthlessness at best or authoritarian command and control at worst.</p>
<p>Perhaps the brand, aligned closely with Musk’s other endeavours, will act less as a scar, and more of a scab – a constant reminder for the billionaire that town square gatherings this large cannot be controlled or tamed. </p>
<p>Or perhaps it will illuminate the hollowness of this form of human communication, which sometimes resembles “antisocial media”. This could free us to return to who we really are: individuals embedded in a small social group of collaborative, supportive people, seeking to flourish and grow.</p>
<p>Sometimes a fire doesn’t give you a phoenix, instead it just gives you ashes. Despite media characterisations to the contrary, we, the consumers, still have choices. We do not simply, blindly, run when we hear the whistle, jumping for the next shot of dopamine. So, whether or not Twitter is really “dead”, its continued success seems harder to guarantee.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leslie Hallam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A rebranding expert on what may lie in store for the transformed social media platform.Leslie Hallam, Course Director, Psychology of Advertising Masters Programme, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882682023-06-13T12:30:17Z2023-06-13T12:30:17ZThe overlooked story of the incarceration of Japanese Americans from Hawaii during World War II<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529104/original/file-20230530-23-br74q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C30%2C742%2C336&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A 1945 photograph of detainees at the Honouliuli Internment Camp.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://npgallery.nps.gov/AssetDetail/bedc8c747d3d46ae9ffe6368e16eb64c">courtesy of National Park Service</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the months and years following Japan’s bombing of Pearl Harbor in Hawaii on Dec. 7, 1941, the U.S. government incarcerated a large number of Japanese American civilians from the U.S. mainland. </p>
<p>Often forgotten are the Japanese Americans who lived in Hawaii and were also forced from their homes and imprisoned in Hawaii and on the U.S. mainland. </p>
<p>Their forced relocation and incarceration has been largely omitted from the dominant narrative of Japanese American internment in the U.S. during World War II. Additionally, attempts by governments to provide redress to those individuals and memorialize their treatment have been slower than for individuals interned on the U.S. mainland. </p>
<h2>Internment in the US mainland and Hawaii</h2>
<p>In February 1942, President Franklin Roosevelt <a href="https://tupress.temple.edu/books/the-rise-and-fall-of-america-s-concentration-camp-law#:%7E:text=It%20restricted%20the%20freedom%20of,it%20was%20repealed%20in%201971.">issued</a> <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/executive-order-9066">Executive Order 9066</a>, which allowed for the creation of U.S. military areas from which people could be excluded. </p>
<p>Although the executive order made no mention of any ethnic group, it implicitly <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shameful-stories-of-environmental-injustices-at-japanese-american-incarceration-camps-during-wwii-174011">targeted Japanese Americans</a> because of widespread xenophobic fear that they would spy for the Japanese government or engage in acts of sabotage within the U.S.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A crowd of men gathers behind President Franklin D. Roosevelt as he signs a paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444560/original/file-20220204-17-keykob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Dec. 8, 1941, a day after the attack on Pearl Harbor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the U.S. declaration of war against Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cabinet-members-watch-with-mixed-emotions-as-president-news-photo/514080362?adppopup=true">Bettmann/GettyImages</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result, almost 120,000 civilians of Japanese ancestry, the majority of whom were from the West Coast and were American citizens, were <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4614-9185-9">incarcerated</a> in camps by the government on suspicion that they <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295984513/judgment-without-trial/">posed a threat</a> to U.S. security on basis of their ancestry.</p>
<p>In Hawaii, which had been colonized by the U.S. in 1898, the incarceration of Japanese Americans was much smaller in scale than that on the mainland.</p>
<p>Given that Japanese Americans <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">made up</a> more than one third of Hawaii’s total population during World War II and thus a sizable <a href="https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295984513/judgment-without-trial/">wartime</a> labor force, U.S. forces incarcerated about <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii">2,000 Japanese Americans</a> from Hawaii. These people <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12695">included</a> community figures, Japanese language teachers and Shinto priests.</p>
<p>Additionally, hundreds of Japanese Americans in Hawaii, although not imprisoned, were <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">forcibly removed</a> from their homes, taken to other parts of the territory and, at times, not permitted to return to their homes.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="The official government instructions on internment of Japanese Americans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528699/original/file-20230528-200990-ntvv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the authorization of the U.S. government, the U.S. military rounded up and incarcerated Japanese Americans shortly after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-internment-of-japanese-americans-was-the-world-war-ii-news-photo/1354474652?adppopup=true">History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Honouliuli Internment Camp, known as Hell Valley among internees, <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii#:%7E:text=Bayonets%20in%20Paradise%3A%20Martial%20Law%20in%20Hawai%CA%BBi%20During%20World%20War%20II,-%2445.95&text=Hardcover%2C%20489%20pp.,Hawai%CA%BBi%20during%20World%20War%20II.">opened</a> in 1943 on the island of Oahu and was the largest confinement site in Hawaii.</p>
<p>Unlike other camps in Hawaii, it housed civilians and prisoners of war. During its three years of operation, the camp <a href="https://www.nativebookshawaii.org/products/bayonets-in-paradise-martial-law-in-hawai%CA%BBi-during-world-war-ii#:%7E:text=Bayonets%20in%20Paradise%3A%20Martial%20Law%20in%20Hawai%CA%BBi%20During%20World%20War%20II,-%2445.95&text=Hardcover%2C%20489%20pp.,Hawai%CA%BBi%20during%20World%20War%20II.">held around 320</a> Japanese American civilians.</p>
<p>The camps in Hawaii, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shameful-stories-of-environmental-injustices-at-japanese-american-incarceration-camps-during-wwii-174011">as on the mainland</a>, were crowded, monitored by armed guards and surrounded by barbed wire fences.</p>
<p>As a result of their detention, <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/japanese-americans/justice-denied">former internees have experienced</a> mental health issues alongside heightened rates of suicide and early death.</p>
<h2>Official US redress</h2>
<p>Following <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-tragedy-of-democracy/9780231129237">years of advocacy</a> by Japanese American organizations, President Jimmy Carter authorized the creation of the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/111th-congress/house-report/666/1">Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians</a> in 1980.</p>
<p>Three years later, the commission <a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/24746908">issued recommendations</a>, including that the U.S. government apologize and provide reparations of US$20,000 to Japanese American survivors, including Japanese Americans from Hawaii.</p>
<p>Despite his <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12695">initial opposition </a>to the commission’s recommendation that the U.S. government provide reparations, in 1988, President Ronald Reagan signed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/442">Civil Liberties Act</a>, which provided a formal apology and reparations of $20,000 to many former internees.</p>
<p>At the signing, <a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/remarks-signing-bill-providing-restitution-wartime-internment-japanese-american">Reagan referred</a> to Japanese American internment as a “grave wrong” that was undertaken “without trial … based solely on race.” </p>
<p>Despite this, he made no reference to the fact that the civilian camps were created and run by the U.S. government and Army, nor did he recognize that these actions constituted human rights abuses. </p>
<p>Furthermore, upon its creation, the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/442">Civil Liberties Act</a> had a significant flaw – it excluded hundreds of affected Japanese Americans from Hawaii from receiving that restitution.</p>
<p>That oversight was corrected in 1992, when <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p067648">President George H.W. Bush</a> signed into law the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/102nd-congress/house-bill/4551/text">Civil Liberties Act Amendments</a>, which broadened eligibility for restitution.</p>
<h2>Selective memorialization</h2>
<p>Since that period, U.S. government and nongovernment organizations have selectively memorialized Japanese American incarceration by designating some prison camps as national historical sites and creating mainland-centric memorials. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.njamemorial.org/visit">National Japanese American Memorial to Patriotism During World War II</a> in Washington, D.C., created in 2000, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=4111">includes multiple walls</a> inscribed with the names of all mainland camps and the number of individuals interned there, but makes no reference to specific incarceration camps in Hawaii.</p>
<p>That said, the monument, which was organized by a Japanese American NGO, does <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/japanese-american-memorial-to-patriotism-during-world-war-ii.htm">include an inscription</a> which recognizes that Japanese Americans were incarcerated in the mainland and Hawaii. </p>
<p>Additionally, between 1992 and 2008, mainland camps <a href="https://www.nps.gov/manz/index.htm">Manzanar </a>and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/tule/index.htm">Tule Lake</a> in California and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/miin/index.htm">Minidoka</a> in Idaho were designated as national historical sites or monuments by U.S. presidents or Congress. However, it was not until 2015 that President Barack Obama <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/02/24/presidential-proclamation-establishment-honouliuli-national-monument">designated</a> the Honouliuli Internment Camp a national monument. </p>
<p>This selective memorialization is unsurprising given that Hawaii, like other territories colonized by the U.S., is often <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/how-to-hide-an-empire-9781473545335">omitted</a> from accounts of American history. Nonetheless, such memorialization is problematic, as it reinforces the dominant narrative of Japanese American incarceration that <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-tragedy-of-democracy/9780231129237">focuses on</a> the mainland camps and West Coast Japanese Americans and obscures the imprisonment of Japanese Americans from Hawaii. </p>
<p>The bombing of Pearl Harbor has become <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/a-date-which-will-live#:%7E:text=December%207%2C%201941%E2%80%94the%20date,to%20them%20are%20hardly%20settled">ingrained in American memory</a> and, as a result, for many Americans, Hawaii symbolizes white American victimhood. </p>
<p>But as the incarceration of Japanese Americans from Hawaii demonstrates, Hawaii is also a symbol of human rights abuses committed by the U.S. government against Japanese Americans.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivia Tasevski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When US President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066, he paved the way for the incarceration of Japanese Americans on the mainland and HawaiiOlivia Tasevski, Tutor in International Relations and History, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2019882023-03-17T13:56:52Z2023-03-17T13:56:52ZIraq 20 years on: death came from the skies on March 19 2003 – and the killing continues to this day<p>The mass killings of Iraqis started on the night of March 19 2003 with the US-led coalition’s “shock and awe” bombing of Baghdad. They called it “<a href="https://www.cfr.org/timeline/iraq-war">Operation Iraqi Freedom</a>”.</p>
<p>Millions around the world sat transfixed in front of their TV screens, watching as bombs and missiles exploded. The reports came with the warning that they “contained flashing images”. True enough, the sky over Baghdad flashed orange and golden – but those were bombs, not flash photography. </p>
<p>The narrative of terror which began that day was to last for years. Terror from the sky, terror on the ground, terror from the foreign soldier, terror from one’s neighbour. By the time the invasion was completed, some 7,500 Iraqi civilians had been killed in the air strikes.</p>
<p>Each death was recorded by the <a href="https://www.iraqbodycount.org/about/">Iraq Body Count</a> (IBC) database, with which I have been involved for some years. Among them were <a href="https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/incidents/x025">15 adults and children who lost their lives</a> in Baghdad’s Zafaraniya area on March 30 2003:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Iraq Body Count list of deaths of people in an attack in Baghdad on March 30 2003" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515787/original/file-20230316-22-wz7abs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iraq Body Count</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the war began, the US president George W Bush vowed to “disarm Iraq and to free its people” in a live television address, shortly after explosions had rocked the Iraqi capital. US military sources <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2866109.stm">told the BBC</a> that five key members of the Iraqi regime, including its president Saddam Hussein, were targeted in these first attacks – but that it was not known whether the targets had been hit and what damage might have been caused.</p>
<p>When it came to civilian deaths, an <a href="https://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/reference/press-releases/12/">IBC dossier</a> revealed the extent of the killings between 2003 and 2005. During the invasion and in the two years that followed, 24,865 civilians were reported killed – almost half in the capital Baghdad. </p>
<p>Nearly one-third of these civilian deaths occurred during the invasion phase before May 1 2003, when Bush made his “mission accomplished” speech from the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, at the safe distance of the coast of San Diego. </p>
<p>US-led forces killed 37% of all civilian victims in the first two years. Anti-occupation forces and insurgents killed 9%, post-invasion criminal violence accounted for 36% of all deaths, and the remainder were killed by “unknown agents”. At least a further 42,500 civilians were reported wounded. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="List pf people responsible for civilian deaths in Iraq war." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516048/original/file-20230317-2026-ffgu2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iraq war: who did the killings? (2003-05).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iraq Body Count</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While mortuary officials and medics were the most frequently cited witnesses of these deaths, three press agencies (Associated Press, Agence France Presse and Reuters) between them provided more than one-third of all media reports.</p>
<h2>The aftermath</h2>
<p>Thousands of civilians have been killed each year since that first night of shock and awe. At its peak, in 2006, the <a href="https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/">conflict claimed</a> 29,027 people. At its calmest, in 2022, there were 740 deaths. </p>
<p>Two decades on, the killings continue. IBC’s 2022 security report, <a href="https://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/beyond/residual-war/">Iraq’s Residual War</a>, revealed that the country is still effectively at war. </p>
<p>In 2022, in addition to civilian killings, 521 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State">Islamic State</a> fighters were killed by the Iraqi military in joint operations with the US, and 506 members of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers%27_Party">PKK</a> (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) were killed by the Turkish military. Other conflict-related deaths included 97 Turkish and 80 Iraqi soldiers, 30 members of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Mobilization_Forces">Popular Mobilization Forces</a> (paramilitaries with links to Iran), and 23 federal police. </p>
<p>Pro-Iran parties dominate Iraq’s parliament, and more than 150,000 fighters of the former Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitary forces have been integrated into the state military. </p>
<p>In 2021, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/313615_IRAQ-2021-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf">UN High Commissioner for Human Rights</a> published a study that highlighted the severe and enduring injustices of the Iraqi justice system – based on 235 interviews with current or former detainees, as well as discussions with prison staff, judges, lawyers, families of the detainees and other relevant parties. As <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iraq-authorities-deny-prisoner-rights/2021/08/03/5f9d2c7e-f07a-11eb-81b2-9b7061a582d8_story.html">reported in the Washington Post</a>, the study detailed: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… a labyrinth of unfairness, with detainees often denied due process at every turn … Confessions frequently come through torture … [such that] detainees frequently end up signing documents admitting crimes they did not commit. Few detainees see a lawyer until they appear in court. Methods of abuse include severe beatings, some on the soles of the feet, as well as electric shocks, stress positions and suffocation. Sexual violence was also reported.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There were also <a href="https://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/beyond/residual-war/">1,352 arrests in Iraq in 2022</a> under the Terrorism Act. All these men face the death penalty.</p>
<h2>Traumatised country</h2>
<p>Since the 2003 invasion, Iraqis have been subjected to genocide, terrorism, the killing of protesters, poverty and the displacement of millions of people. When the war in Iraq officially ended in 2011 with then-US president Barack Obama <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Iraq_(2007%E2%80%932011)#:%7E:text=Full%20withdrawal%20(2011),-See%20also%3A%20U.S.&text=With%20the%20collapse%20of%20discussions,scheduled%2C%20on%2021%20October%202011.">declaring</a> the withdrawal of troops, a deeply traumatised country was left behind, with a bankrupt economy. </p>
<p>Economists say that, due to falling oil prices and the <a href="https://www.unicef.org/iraq/press-releases/children-make-majority-45-million-iraqis-risk-falling-poverty-and-deprivation-due">effects of COVID</a> on the country’s economy, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/03/961149079/in-iraqs-dire-economy-poverty-is-rising-and-so-are-fears-of-instability?t=1627992007423">Iraq’s poverty rate</a> may have shot up from 20% in 2018 to more than 30% in 2020, meaning that 12 million Iraqis were living below the poverty line. In 2019, the estimated <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/812116/youth-unemployment-rate-in-iraq/">youth unemployment rate in Iraq was 25%</a> – in a country where almost 60% of the population is <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2017/08/in-iraq-un-youth-envoy-says-young-people-are-most-valuable-force-we-have-to-shape-a-better-future/">under 25</a>.</p>
<h2>The future</h2>
<p>In July 2016, in his <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20171123122743/http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/the-report/">report</a> to the UK’s parliamentary inquiry into the Iraq war, Sir John Chilcot underlined the need for documenting the effects of military action on civilians. It was the government’s responsibility, he stated, to identify and understand the likely and actual effects of its military action. Referring to the war, he wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Greater efforts should have been made in the post-conflict period to determine the number of civilian casualties and the broader effects of military operations on civilians. More time was devoted to the question of which department should have responsibility for the issue of civilian casualties than it was to efforts to determine the actual number. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>One of Chilcot’s recommendations was that the UK government should be ready to work with others, in particular NGOs and academic institutions, to develop such assessments and estimates over time. The vast majority of civilian deaths in Iraq remain only partially documented. A respectful and humane account of all the Iraq war’s dead remains <a href="https://twitter.com/iraqbodycount/status/1625842108404727808">an unfinished task</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201988/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lily Hamourtziadou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Iraq Body Count has kept a close tally of people killed in Iraq since the invasion started in March 2003.Lily Hamourtziadou, Senior Lecturer in Security Studies, Birmingham City UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002492023-03-01T09:43:26Z2023-03-01T09:43:26ZFrom Chinua Achebe to Toyin Falola – 5 essential books Nigeria’s new president should read<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511370/original/file-20230221-22-lymjhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/nigerian-flag-with-pile-of-books-isolated-on-white-royalty-free-image/843290280?phrase=nigeria%20books&adppopup=true">Golden Brown/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Not many African political leaders are known to have publicly declared their love of reading. US president Barack Obama popularised the idea of a recommended <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2022/12/23/barack-obama-2022-favorites-books-movies-songs/10948842002/">reading list</a> and he still shares his annual choice. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/olayinka-oyegbile-1297384">a communications scholar</a> and a book reviewer, I made a short list of essential reads for Nigeria’s new president. My selection of books is based on what a new president needs to know when he takes the reins of <a href="https://businessday.ng/news/article/nigeria-more-divided-today-than-four-years-ago-report/">a deeply divided and disillusioned country</a>.</p>
<p>Nigeria has many problems. Disunity deepened under the Muhammadu Buhari government, and <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2022/07/29/controlling-nigerias-rising-population-could-reduce-long-term-inflation-report/">galloping inflation</a> has led to a <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/577603-nigerians-groan-as-fuel-scarcity-bites-harder.html">shortage of essential goods</a> and services. <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-insecurity-2022-was-a-bad-year-and-points-to-need-for-major-reforms-194554">Insecurity</a> remains a challenge too. </p>
<h2>The Trouble with Nigeria, by Chinua Achebe</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Chinua-Achebe">Chinua Achebe</a>, Nigeria’s preeminent novelist, took a break from fiction <a href="https://africanbookaddict.com/2015/05/25/the-trouble-with-nigeria-by-chinua-achebe/#:%7E:text=Even%20though%20this%20book%20was,administrations%20in%20several%20African%20nations.">in 1983</a> to write <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Trouble-Nigeria-Chinua-Achebe/dp/9781561475">The Trouble with Nigeria</a>. I recommend it first because of its slim size. Many of our leaders have a well-known disdain for anything intellectual or rigorous. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=957&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=957&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=957&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1202&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1202&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511367/original/file-20230221-20-kf5afl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1202&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Trouble With Nigeria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amazon</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The incoming president should find time to sit down and pore over the 68 pages of this book and see what Achebe has said about our country. The writer says: “The trouble with Nigeria is leadership.” Simple. The president should then ask himself how he can make a difference. Perhaps after reading this small but powerful book, the incoming president might see where he fits into the “trouble” with Nigeria and how to fix it.</p>
<h2>From Third World to First: The Singapore Story: 1965-2000, by Lee Kuan Yew</h2>
<p>I know this is a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Third-World-First-Singapore-1965-2000/dp/0060197765">big book</a>. But it earns my recommendation because it is written from experience. Achebe was never a leader of a country. Lee Kuan Yew was. As prime minister of Singapore, he led a nation that was poor, scorned and derided. But through stern determination, he led it out of the dungeon. Nigeria needs a leader like Lee, without his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/23/lee-kuan-yews-legacy-of-authoritarian-pragmatism-will-serve-singapore-well">dictatorial tendencies</a>. Nigeria has long been a subject of scorn, even among its own citizens who have decided to vote with their feet in search of better fortunes in other countries. </p>
<p>How did Lee transform his small, decrepit country into an internet economy? There is no need to reinvent the wheel for Nigeria; this has been done in Singapore. All the president needs to do is adapt it to local needs. </p>
<h2>Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson</h2>
<p>I recommend <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nations-Fail-Origins-Prosperity/dp/0307719227">this book</a> because it is simple and straightforward without economic or political jargon that might bore or scare the incoming president. Daron Acemoglu is <a href="https://economics.mit.edu/people/faculty/daron-acemoglu">an economist at MIT</a> while James A. Robinson is <a href="https://harris.uchicago.edu/directory/james-robinson">an economist and political scientist at the University of Chicago</a>. </p>
<p>The authors did a great job of synthesising the reasons why nations fail – it’s an easy read. Many have argued that Nigeria is failing or has failed because of its culture, geography, climate or ethnic composition. These authors have punctured all that. </p>
<p>The new president will get a clear picture of how to move out of the bind Nigeria is in, 62 years after <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Nigeria/Independent-Nigeria">independence</a> and <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/5278c70012.html">24 years after a return to democracy</a>. To the authors, nations find themselves where they are because of the choices made by their leaders in setting up economic and political institutions. They conclude it’s possible to break out of the poverty cycle. This is what Nigeria needs now to restore citizens’ faith in the system. It is political and economic institutions that underlie economic success. </p>
<h2>Understanding Modern Nigeria: Ethnicity, Democracy, and Development, by Toyin Falola</h2>
<p>Abiodun Alao, a professor of African Studies at King’s College London, writing a blurb for <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Modern-Nigeria-Ethnicity-Development/dp/1108837972">this book</a>, said: “Falola has brought together, under one cover, answers to all the questions anyone may want to ask about Nigeria.” </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=910&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511368/original/file-20230221-14-xabhxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1144&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Understanding Modern Nigeria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amazon</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://liberalarts.utexas.edu/history/faculty/falolaoo">Toyin Falola</a> is a Jacob and Frances Sanger Mossiker Chair in the Humanities and a distinguished teaching professor at the University of Texas at Austin in the US. </p>
<p>This is truly a magisterial book about Nigeria. In its 672 pages it covers everything about the country from colonialism to post-colonial and modern times, religious identities, fault lines, youth, popular culture and politics.</p>
<p>It is arguably one of the most detailed books about contemporary issues in the country. The new president can learn a lot from it. </p>
<h2>New York, My Village: A Novel, by Uwem Akpan</h2>
<p>Unlike the four other books, this is fiction. Why a novel? It earns its place because fiction has a way of telling some home truths that non-fiction may gloss over. In <a href="https://www.amazon.com/New-York-My-Village-Novel/dp/0393881423">this book</a> about <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Nigerian-civil-war">the Nigerian civil war (1967-70)</a>, Akpan has been able to give a voice to the minority. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511369/original/file-20230221-18-19pgjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York, My Village.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Goodreads</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nigeria has been dogged by the issue of a majority accused of lording it over minority ethnic groups. Akpan’s short stories and autobiographical pieces have appeared in various magazines locally and abroad. He currently teaches at the University of Florida. </p>
<p>In this novel, Akpan gives minorities a voice. The majority have to listen instead of ramming their ideas down the throats of others. The incoming president would gain a lot from reading this book and understanding that we must always have the patience to listen to the minority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Oyegbile does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What a new president needs to know as he takes the reins of a deeply divided and disillusioned country.Olayinka Oyegbile, Journalist and Communications scholar, Trinity University, LagosLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004242023-02-27T13:23:18Z2023-02-27T13:23:18ZAll presidents avoid reporters, but Biden may achieve a record in his press avoidance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511997/original/file-20230223-16-sysg55.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C8337%2C5541&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-walks-to-marine-one-after-speaking-to-news-photo/1245981309?phrase=Biden%20walks%20away%20from%20reporters&adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s nothing new <a href="https://www.history.com/news/presidents-relationship-with-press">about presidents avoiding the press</a>. </p>
<p>Bill Clinton was in a major scandal – based in large part on <a href="https://youtu.be/XBzHnZiSv7U">getting caught in a deception during a media interview</a> – and successfully outsourced his White House press briefings to legal counsel to avoid having his press secretary or himself <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/lanny-davis-recalls-what-its-like-to-defend-a-president-under-siege">trapped by tough media questioning</a>. </p>
<p>Barack Obama campaigned on being the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0491.2009.01451.x">most transparent president in history</a> and then <a href="https://www.hintergrund.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/us2013-english.pdf">prosecuted reporters as criminals</a>. </p>
<p>But well into the third year of Joe Biden’s presidency, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-news-conferences#Data%20Table">he has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory</a>. </p>
<p>There’s a reason that Biden – and all the other presidents – want to avoid the press: While democracy may demand such accountability from a president, press conferences definitely are risky for them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1480559083421896709"}"></div></p>
<h2>Avoidance becomes the norm</h2>
<p>It took Biden until late March 2021 to hold his first press conference, more than two months after his inauguration – the longest a new president had gone without holding a press conference in 100 years. </p>
<p>During Biden’s first year in office, he held a total of 10 press conferences. Most of those featured him reading prepared remarks and then leaving <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/19/joe-biden-media-reporters-press-conference">without taking questions from reporters</a>. When he does take questions, he tends to call on only preselected reporters from – in his own words – “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2i2FeDw2Bc">a list I’ve been given</a>.”</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of political communication and public relations</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/ijsc.2015-0003">I have found through my research that</a> public figures such as celebrities and sports stars in the age of social media are no longer concerned with answering reporters’ questions, holding press conferences or giving interviews. </p>
<p>Why should LeBron James care about reporters when he can share his unfiltered opinions freely and instantly with his <a href="https://www.instagram.com/kingjames/?hl=en">146 million Instagram followers</a> and his <a href="https://twitter.com/KingJames">53 million Twitter followers</a>? </p>
<p>Donald Trump brought this perspective to the country’s highest office, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/694755">tweeting about the presidency</a> <a href="https://youtu.be/HKzcbm2ZWCE">and ignoring</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/jtl5XK7QP38">insulting reporters to their faces</a>. </p>
<p>While Biden doesn’t trash the press the way Trump did, he hardly speaks to the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/jill-biden-joe-biden-question-reporters-classified-documents-1777060">public</a>. </p>
<p>The White House press secretary <a href="https://youtu.be/KF3x0kkWzok">routinely refuses to answer reporters’ questions</a>. Washington Post media reporter Paul Farhi wrote in January 2023 that press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre repeatedly responded to questions about classified documents found in Biden’s home and former office “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/02/02/karine-jean-pierre-biden-documents/">by essentially not responding</a>.”</p>
<p></p>
<h2>Risky business</h2>
<p>I have published studies of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2015.1120876">presidential press conferences</a>, looking at the effects of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X15600732">journalists’ asking tough questions</a>. I have explored <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1750481318766923">theories about</a> politicians’ different strategies with the press and observed the effects on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17706960">voters</a>. </p>
<p>Critics point to various motives Biden might have for avoiding the press - and even so, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/arts/television/late-night-biden-physical.html">late-night comics appear to have plenty of fodder from him</a>. But empirical evidence and my research suggest that there are multiple reasons no president should want to give a press conference. </p>
<p>Understanding those risks does not mean I am justifying press avoidance by presidents. <a href="https://grady.uga.edu/faculty/clementson/">As a former journalist and a political campaign director for both Democrats and Republicans</a>, I believe that <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/presidential-press-conferences">public servants are derelict</a> in their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F016344370202400203">duties</a> if they refuse to face the press. I’m not alone: The White House Correspondents’ Association accused Biden in 2021 of lacking “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/press-conferences-biden-administration/2021/03/12/332285e6-81e3-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html">accountability to the public</a>.” And in June 2022, a group of White House reporters officially <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/06/30/white-house-press-corps-demands-end-to-biden-event-restrictions/">complained about Biden’s inaccessibility</a> , accusing him of practices “antithetical” to the “concept of a free press,” noting that “<a href="https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/07/KARINEFINALEDITED.docx.pdf">every other president before Biden (including Trump) allowed full access to the very same spaces</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="U.S. President Harry Truman at a desk in the White House, surrounded by reporters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry Truman gives his first White House press conference, on April 17, 1945.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-truman-holding-his-first-press-conference-at-news-photo/107422994?adppopup=true">Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dodging questions – or not</h2>
<p>The first reason to avoid a press conference is that reporters may accuse the president of dodging questions. And viewers are likely to believe the allegations – regardless of what the president actually said. The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/opinions/white-house-briefings-journalists-trump-lockhart/index.html">tendency</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2002.tb02572.x">political journalists to accuse presidents</a> of deflecting questions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2010.496712">has increased</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X08322475">in recent decades</a> and has become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/016344370202400203">fairly common</a>. </p>
<p>During the 2020 campaign, Biden was <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-dodges-court-packing-questions-scotus-nomination-moves/story?id=73523933">accused of dodging questions</a> by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-politics-courts-2da741e21e49bec61f9e50a0f4ec5b45">numerous media outlets</a>. A campaign spokesperson was even <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/biden-rep-dodges-question-about-whether-his-teleprompter-use/">accused of dodging a question</a> about Biden dodging questions.</p>
<p>I ran an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">experiment testing the effects of a journalist’s accusing politicians</a> of evasion. </p>
<p>The voters in the study all saw the same questions and answers. For half of the voters, though, I edited the video to insert the journalist accusing the politician of dodging in an answer.</p>
<p>Voters who saw the journalist making the allegation believed the politician indeed dodged. Voters who saw the identical interview without the allegation of evasion thought the politician gave adequate answers. </p>
<p>What’s more: The politician shown in the experiment had not actually dodged. Voters seem to believe a reporter and disbelieve a politician.</p>
<h2>No good answer</h2>
<p>A second reason to avoid press conferences is that questions will tend to be unanswerable. As has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08824096.2020.1811659">documented</a> by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X8800700204">decades of data</a>, journalists frequently ask about divisive or controversial topics, and they word their questions in tricky ways.</p>
<p>There is no politically advantageous answer to such questions. Based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X15600732">my research</a>, journalists covering the White House tend to ask about topics that divide the country – such as abortion or gun control – for which any direct answer would offend some group of voters. </p>
<h2>You can’t win</h2>
<p>A third reason is that even if a question is not divisive, and the president answers it, many voters will still think the president is being deceptive. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17744004">I ran an experiment</a> in which I filmed an interview of a politician either dodging or answering a journalist’s question. Regardless of what the politician actually said, Republican voters thought the politician was deceptive when he was a Democrat, and vice versa for Democratic voters. </p>
<p>Simply by having a party label, a president’s press conference will likely be skewed through a partisan lens no matter what he says.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President George W. Bush speaking to the press." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President George W. Bush got defensive during his final press conference, on Jan. 12, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-speaks-during-his-final-press-news-photo/84255528?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>TMI – too much information</h2>
<p>A final reason for a president to avoid giving a press conference: The more the public gets to know a president, the more they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034379">dislike him</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">My own research</a> has revealed why a president might become more unpresidential the more he holds press conferences. The more a politician’s words inevitably diverge from voters’ feelings and experiences, the less presidential he will seem to them.</p>
<p>Altogether, presidents probably will lose stature by holding a press conference. Journalists hold the upper hand, asking questions that pose a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X08322475">rhetorical minefield</a> and wielding the power to accuse the president of evasion. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">voters will tend to believe journalists’ criticism of the president</a> even if a president honestly answers their questions.</p>
<p>Of course, if what the president is aiming for is not strategic expediency but simply fulfilling an obligation to be held accountable in his role, then the country wins when he holds a press conference – and in that way he does, too.</p>
<p><em>This story substantially updates <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-no-president-should-want-to-give-a-press-conference-157222">a story</a> originally published on March 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Joe Biden may be nicer to reporters than his predecessor, but he’s not actually responsive to the press. He has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1992542023-02-20T12:50:29Z2023-02-20T12:50:29ZPresidential greatness is rarely fixed in stone – changing attitudes on racial injustice and leadership qualities lead to dramatic shifts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510927/original/file-20230217-440-ugm5ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C72%2C1004%2C603&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A statue of Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States, sits in the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. Historians consistently have given Lincoln, the Great Emancipator, their highest rating because of his leadership during the Civil War. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/statue-of-abraham-lincoln-is-seen-in-the-lincoln-memorial-news-photo/1244410710?phrase=abraham lincoln memorial&adppopup=true">Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every American president has landed in the history books. And historians’ assessments of their performance have been generally consistent over time. But some presidents’ rankings have changed as the nation – and historians themselves – reassessed the country’s values and priorities. </p>
<p>Historians have been ranking presidents in surveys since <a href="https://home.csulb.edu/%7Eastevens/posc100/files/ratings.htm">Arthur Schlesinger Sr.’s first such study</a> appeared in Life magazine in 1948. The results of that survey categorized Presidents Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson as “great.”</p>
<p>At the other end of the ranking, Presidents Ulysses S. Grant and Warren Harding were labeled “failure.” </p>
<p>There have been numerous surveys ranking presidents since then, including a <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1962/07/29/356745922.html?pageNumber=143">1962 survey by Arthur Schlesinger Jr.</a>, which showed Jackson dropping into a “near great” category. </p>
<h2>Changing views shift rankings</h2>
<p>While the surveys point to Americans’ evolving social attitudes, with implications for our electoral politics and governance, they don’t always ask historians the same questions. Some simply ask them to rank presidents. Others ask them to also judge specific aspects of leadership, such as economic policy or international diplomacy. </p>
<p>Despite the relative stability of the ratings across surveys – especially at the top, where Lincoln, Washington and Roosevelt consistently hold sway – there have been some dramatic changes. C-SPAN’s four surveys on presidential leadership, for example, show some shifts in historians’ ranking of presidents over time.</p>
<p>Since <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2000%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2000</a>, the cable network has polled prominent historians every time there has been a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_9HaCYWGS8">change in administrations</a>. So, C-SPAN conducted surveys in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2009%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2009</a>, <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2017%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2017</a> and <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a> as well.</p>
<p>The surveys offer not only an overall ranking of presidents, but also rankings in each of the following 10 categories: public persuasion, crisis leadership, economic management, moral authority, international relations, administrative skills, relations with Congress, vision and agenda setting, pursuance of equal justice for all, and performance within the context of the times.</p>
<p>While Lincoln has ranked at the top of each survey, the two presidents who served right before him – <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/franklin-pierces-murky-legacy-as-president">Franklin Pierce</a> and <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/james-buchanan-why-is-he-considered-americas-worst-president">James Buchanan</a>, both sympathetic to slavery – and his immediate successor, white supremacist <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/johnson/life-in-brief">Andrew Johnson</a>, have consistently ranked at the bottom. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/donald-j-trump/">Donald Trump</a> debuted in C-SPAN’s 2021 survey near the bottom. He was ranked 41st of 45 presidents.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A suited man, with ear-length hair, sits with his left hand resting on a side table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510930/original/file-20230217-26-x4wapy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andrew Johnson was Abraham Lincoln’s vice president and successor. As president, he vetoed legislation designed to help African Americans during Reconstruction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrew-johnson-17th-president-of-the-united-states-1860s-news-photo/463975927?phrase=andrew%20johnson%20&adppopup=true">The Print Collector/ Hulton Archive via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is a good leader?</h2>
<p>As a <a href="https://directory.richmond.edu/bios/ggoethal/">social psychologist and leadership scholar</a> at the University of Richmond’s Jepson School of Leadership Studies, with long-standing interests in presidential leadership, I believe these surveys can be best understood in terms of psychologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(86)90042-9">Dean Keith Simonton’s model</a> of evaluating presidents.</p>
<p>He maintains that historians generally view leaders, including presidents, positively to the extent that they fit a deeply ingrained image of someone who is strong, active and good. And that image comes to mind when they think of attributes and events linked to a president that suggest he was a good leader. Examples include how long he served, whether he was a war hero and whether he was assassinated, and in that sense, was a martyr. </p>
<p>On the other hand, historians also easily recall scandals, such as <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/watergate">Richard Nixon’s Watergate</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/issues-policy/us-domestic-policy/making-teapot-dome-scandal-relevant-again">Harding’s Teapot Dome</a>. These detract from these presidents’ “good” image, as evidenced by Nixon’s and Harding’s rankings of 31st and 37th, respectively, in C-SPAN’s <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a> survey.</p>
<h2>Race matters</h2>
<p>In recent years, presidents’ positions on race and racism have been important factors in historians’ evaluations of their records. For example, Wilson’s rather startling efforts to <a href="https://millercenter.org/issues-policy/us-domestic-policy/the-debate-over-woodrow-wilson">segregate federal offices and the military</a> are becoming more widely known as scholars explore that aspect of his presidency.</p>
<p>His actions in that regard may overshadow his <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/wilson/foreign-affairs">international idealism</a>, which favored morality over materialism and has been viewed positively. He is no longer considered one of our “great” presidents. In Schlesinger Sr.’s 1948 survey, he ranked fourth of 29 presidents. But in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a>, historians ranked him 13th of 45 for C-SPAN. </p>
<p>Jackson dropped the most in C-SPAN’s surveys, from 13th in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2000%20C-SPAN%20Presidential%20Survey%20Scores%20and%20Ranks%20FINAL.PDF">2000</a> to 22nd in <a href="https://static.c-spanvideo.org/assets/documents/presidentSurvey/2021-Survey-Results-Overall.pdf">2021</a>. His commitment to <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jackson/domestic-affairs">Indian removal</a> from Southern and Midwestern states, not unique for the time, and the resulting <a href="https://cherokeehistorical.org/trail-of-tears/">Trail of Tears</a> – the forced and violent relocation of Native Americans from their homelands – are important topics in today’s political discussions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A suited man stands with a top hat in his right hand as his left hand rests on a side table dressed in a table cloth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510923/original/file-20230217-22-a24k7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Grover Cleveland, in office from 1885 to 1889 and 1893 to 1897, opposed efforts to integrate schools or give African Americans, whom he considered inferior to white people, voting rights.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-grover-cleveland-holding-top-hat-news-photo/640459089?adppopup=true">Library of Congress/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several other presidents who lost ground, including <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/the-enslaved-households-of-james-k-polk">James Polk</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/zachary-taylor">Zachary Taylor</a>, <a href="https://www.rbhayes.org/hayes/hayes-evolving-views-on-anti-slavery-reconstruction/">Rutherford B. Hayes</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/cleveland/domestic-affairs">Grover Cleveland</a>, were associated with efforts to extend slavery or with failure to protect African Americans following Reconstruction.</p>
<p>Then there is the case of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gen-ulysses-s-grants-pending-promotion-sheds-new-light-on-his-overlooked-fight-for-equal-rights-after-the-civil-war-194896">Grant</a>. Ranked at the bottom as a failure in the mid-20th century, he had the largest ranking change of any president in the C-SPAN surveys. He jumped 13 places from 33rd in 2000 to 20th in 2021. He had already moved up from second-to-last place in the 1948 and 1962 Schlesinger surveys to somewhere in the bottom quartile in 2000, to a position in 2021 where more presidents ranked worse than he did.</p>
<p>The 2021 C-SPAN survey ranks Grant sixth on “pursued equal justice for all,” behind only Lincoln, Lyndon Johnson, Barack Obama, Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter. Given the centrality of equal justice, which may overshadow whatever connection Grant may have had to scandals in his administration, such as <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/tcrr-credit-mobilier-scandal/">Crédit Mobilier</a> and the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2018/12/18/crosshairs-an-investigation-president-fired-special-prosecutor/">Whiskey Ring</a>, Grant rises in historians’ overall evaluation.</p>
<h2>Moral authority</h2>
<p>This all suggests historians have quite simple ways of evaluating presidents. We have an image of the ideal leader. Just a few pieces of information relating to that ideal make a big difference in whether we view presidents as fitting or not fitting that image. This is particularly true of our perception of how good they were. Presidents’ moral commitments speak loudly to whether or not we view them as good.</p>
<p>Interestingly, on the quality of “moral authority” in the C-SPAN surveys from 2000 to 2021, Grant’s ranking rose 14 rungs, from 31st to 17th, even more than it did on “pursued equal justice for all,” where it rose 12 rungs, from 18th to sixth. Wilson and Jackson dropped 13 and 18 places, respectively, on “moral authority.”</p>
<p>Clearly, moral judgments loom large in historians’ assessments of presidential leadership.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded man, dressed in a suit, sits with his right leg crossed over his left. His left hand rests on a book, atop a side table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510928/original/file-20230217-364-94akxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ulysses S. Grant, once ranked poorly by historians, now gets high marks. His advocacy for African American voting rights stands out among his efforts for the freedmen during Reconstruction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ulysses-s-grant-18th-president-of-the-united-states-c1869-news-photo/463975929?phrase=Ulysses%20S.%20Grant&adppopup=true">Print Collector/Hulton Archive via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George R. Goethals received funding from the National Institute of Mental Health from 1971-1983. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, the Society of Experimental Social Psychology, and the Association for Psychological Science and a member of the Society of Personality and Social Psychology and the International Leadership Association.
Dr. Goethals met Dean Keith Simonton at a professional meeting. </span></em></p>Historians change their views of presidents over time, often because of the country’s changing views on race and moral leadership.George R. Goethals, Professor in Leadership Studies, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949952023-01-12T13:21:13Z2023-01-12T13:21:13ZCongress investigates presidents, the military, baseball and whatever it wants – a brief modern history of oversight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504124/original/file-20230111-47547-2vxcga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5697%2C3795&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy walks to the speaker's ceremonial office at the Capitol on Jan. 9, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Congress/b9c29b908c04433fb3b7438eb8427703/photo?Query=Kevin%20McCarthy&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=now-14d&totalCount=722&currentItemNo=23">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After regaining a slim majority in the House of Representatives in the November 2022 midterm elections, Republicans unveiled their plans for a series of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics/gop-investigations-new-congress/index.html">investigations into the Biden administration</a>. </p>
<p>The new Republican majority – after four years in the relatively powerless minority – plans to investigate <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/house-republicans-white-house-hunter-biden/index.html">the Biden family’s connections to foreign businesses</a>, the possible impeachment of <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/five-key-house-republican-investigations-/6911266.html">Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/20/gop-afghan-probe-worries-white-house/">the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan</a>.</p>
<p>Republicans will also establish a Select Committee on China to assess the growing power of what GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy calls “<a href="https://www.republicanleader.gov/leader-mccarthy-announces-rep-mike-gallagher-as-chairman-of-the-china-select-committee/">the greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime</a>.”</p>
<p>And the House will establish a special Judiciary subcommittee to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/10/us/politics/house-republican-committee-weaponization-government.html">investigate “weaponization of the federal government</a>” and potential bias against conservatives in federal investigations. That subcommittee would give GOP Chair Jim Jordan of Ohio the power to subpoena information from ongoing Department of Justice investigations into former President Donald Trump.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-6-hearings-are-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-when-it-comes-to-important-congressional-oversight-hearings-185369">Investigations are a legitimate function of Congress</a>. But there’s another explanation from political science scholarship for all this digging for dirt: Congressional investigations aimed at the White House <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1017/s0022381613001448">can diminish the president’s approval rating</a>. And House Republicans’ legislative agenda may be frustrated by the Senate Democratic majority and the veto power of Democratic President Joe Biden – they won’t be able to pass bills. </p>
<p>So it’s unsurprising that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40263459">congressional investigations increase under divided government</a>, when Congress and the presidency are controlled by opposing parties, and decrease when the president’s party allies control Congress. </p>
<p>Oversight and investigations almost always occur at the committee level and are dictated by the majority on most panels. House Republicans have the autonomy to initiate investigations into virtually any issue they choose. </p>
<h2>A political weapon?</h2>
<p>Leaders in both parties <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/72494-how-oversight-should-work-rep-darrell-issa/">have stressed</a> that good oversight <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/04/trump-investigation-house-democrats-congress-219624/">requires diligent, nonpartisan work that prioritizes fact-finding</a> over political theater. </p>
<p>Yet each party also regularly <a href="https://schiff.house.gov/news/press-releases/rep-schiff-blasts-republican-benghazi-report-">accuses the other</a> of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-wont-talk-to-the-jan-6-committee-democrats-gop-secrets-lefitimacy-trump-weaponizing-government-power-11653597483">using oversight as a political weapon</a>. </p>
<p>Thus, to retain credibility, congressional leaders under divided government are strategic when choosing what to investigate. </p>
<p>Historically, new majorities have targeted the incumbent administration under divided government. But they have also established oversight targets that highlight pet issues, from wasteful government spending to private-sector abuses. </p>
<p>I’m <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/claire-leavitt-1351188">a scholar of government oversight</a> who worked as a fellow on the the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. Here are notable investigations pursued by four different Congresses since 1995. They show the range of congressional oversight, from baseball to the conduct of a president – and a would-be president. </p>
<h2>1. Republican takeover in the 104th Congress of 1995-1996</h2>
<p>In 1994, during President Bill Clinton’s first term, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2007/11/congress-runs-into-republican-revolution-nov-8-1994-006757">Republicans regained control of the House</a> for the first time in 40 years. They took over the Senate for the first time in eight years. </p>
<p>New House Speaker Newt Gingrich prioritized the Republicans’ reform agenda, known as the “<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/19990427174200/http://www.house.gov/house/Contract/CONTRACT.html">Contract with America</a>.” The contract emphasized Republicans’ commitment to rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in government spending, including within Congress itself. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a coat and tie sits in front of a microphone and gestures." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">House Speaker Newt Gingrich was the first Republican to lead the House in decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HouseSpeakerNewtGingrich/bd06ec65e7514f8892ad23bef050a335/photo">AP Photo/Greg Gibson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/07/18/independent-house-audit-finds-millions-wasted-controls-limited/c9dd3d37-1a38-4573-9f76-94d188fd2be6/">independent private audit</a> of the House’s accounting practices commissioned by the Republican majority revealed wasteful spending by House officers and member failure to abide by House spending rules. </p>
<p>Republicans in the 104th Congress also launched major investigations into the Clinton administration. The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held several hearings into the alleged politically motivated <a href="https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/104th-congress/house-report/849/1">firing of seven White House Travel Office employees</a>. In 1998, an independent prosecutor concluded that <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1998-11-20-9811200161-story.html">there was no evidence to charge the Clintons for wrongdoing</a>. </p>
<p>Additionally, the Senate established a special committee to investigate property investments in the Whitewater Development Corp. made by Bill and Hillary Clinton when they were governor and first lady of Arkansas. After a 13-month investigation, the Republican majority’s final report accused the Clinton administration of “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-104srpt280/pdf/CRPT-104srpt280.pdf">highly improper conduct</a>” but did not provide evidence of criminality.</p>
<h2>2. Democratic takeover in the 110th Congress, 2007-2008</h2>
<p>In the midterm elections of 2006, during President George W. Bush’s second term, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/16/house-control-by-year/">Democrats won control of both chambers</a>. </p>
<p>Democrats devoted significant attention to oversight of nongovernment organizations. <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg55749/pdf/CHRG-110hhrg55749.pdf">They investigated the use of steroids in professional baseball</a> and <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg45219/pdf/CHRG-110hhrg45219.pdf">abuses of private security contractors</a> in Iraq and Afghanistan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three men sit in suits sit at a table, with a chart behind them showing oil company profits rising over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The House Energy Independence and Global Warming Committee investigated oil company profits and other issues relating to climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/from-left-rep-jay-inslee-d-wash-and-rep-earl-blumenauer-d-news-photo/99576140">Bill Clark/Roll Call/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Democrats also investigated the Bush administration’s handling of the Iraq War, as well as intelligence failures <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/publications/110345.pdf">in the run-up to the 2003 invasion</a>. </p>
<p>The new Democratic majority also elevated issues it believed Bush had neglected. For instance, <a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/mediacenter/pressreleases_id=0045.html#main_content">accusing Republicans of “play[ing] the politics of climate change denial</a>,” House Democrats established the <a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/index.html">Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming</a>. </p>
<p>The committee held 80 hearings over the next four years to investigate, among other issues, the influence of the oil and gas industry on <a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/mediacenter/pressreleases_2008_id=0059.html#main_content">policy made by the Environmental Protection Agency</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Republican majority in the 112th Congress, 2011-2012</h2>
<p>In the 2010 midterm elections during President Barack Obama’s first term, Republicans recaptured the House majority. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obamas-2010-shellacking-is-like-bushs-2006-thumping/">Obama described it as a “shellacking</a>.”</p>
<p>House Republicans focused their attention on examining a range of issues, including <a href="https://www.congress.gov/event/112th-congress/house-event/LC3118/text?s=1&r=15">Islamic radicalization</a> and <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/impact-of-obamacare-on-job-creators-and-their-decision-to-offer-health-insurance/">the economic impacts of the Affordable Care Act</a>. </p>
<p>Republicans also aggressively conducted oversight of the Obama administration. House and Senate committees launched a major investigation into the so-called “<a href="https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/grassley-issa-release-first-part-final-joint-report-operation-fast-and-furious">Fast and Furious” gun-running operation at the Department of Justice</a>. The inquiry led to the House’s holding Attorney General Eric Holder <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2012/06/holder-held-in-contempt-of-congress-077988">in contempt of Congress</a> for failing to respond to committee subpoenas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A row of men in suits sit at a table. One leans forward and gestures with his hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Led by South Carolina Republican Trey Gowdy, second from right, the House Select Committee on Benghazi investigated a 2012 attack on a U.S. consulate in Libya.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BenghaziInvestigation/3bf01f8d31df443bafd8b865172240e5/photo">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Toward the end of the 112th Congress, Republicans also began to investigate the Obama administration’s handling of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/10/world/benghazi-consulate-attack-fast-facts/index.html">deadly terrorist attacks on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya</a>, on the night of Sept. 11, 2012. In the next Congress, Republicans established a special committee <a href="https://www.congress.gov/114/crpt/hrpt848/CRPT-114hrpt848.pdf">dedicated to investigating the Benghazi attacks</a>.</p>
<p>That investigation revealed that when she was secretary of state Hillary Clinton had used a private email server, not the government server she was required to use. The ensuing scandal may have contributed to Clinton’s <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/">loss to Trump in the 2016 presidential election</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Democrats take over House in the 116th Congress, 2019-2020</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Congress/0bf43b961da74226ab031cb7d9230c5c/photo">2018 midterm elections</a> during Trump’s term, Democrats regained control of the House. </p>
<p>The new majority quickly turned its attention to the Trump administration. In one of the first high-profile hearings of the 116th Congress, the House Oversight and Reform Committee <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rKCWG0VOYw">heard testimony from former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen</a> about, among other issues, Trump’s alleged payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of men and women in suits stands around a wooden table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democrats in the U.S. House investigated President Donald Trump’s income tax returns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-members-of-the-house-ways-and-means-committee-news-photo/1245766550">Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The House Ways and Means Committee began its quest to obtain Trump’s tax returns as part of its probe into accounting practices at the Internal Revenue Service. This investigation led to a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/supreme-court-trump-taxes-house-democrats.html">protracted legal battle</a> and culminated in a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics/trump-tax-summary-ways-and-means-committee/index.html">final report issued at the end of 2022</a> and the <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/house-ways-and-means-trump-tax-report/ee70519acd75513e/full.pdf">public release of six years of Trump’s returns</a> soon after. </p>
<p>And in the fall of 2019, the House began its impeachment inquiry into allegations that Trump had threatened to withhold military aid to Ukraine in order to <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/CDOC-116sdoc13/context">damage one of his primary political opponents, Joe Biden</a>. Trump was impeached by the House for abuse of power and obstruction of justice, though he was acquitted by the Senate in February 2020. </p>
<p>Democrats also launched major inquiries into the private sector, including into <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/10/house-democrats-find-three-year-investigation-that-drug-prices-are-unsustainable-unjustifiable-unfair/">drug-pricing practices in the pharmaceutical industry</a> and the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/13/politics/juul-house-investigation-krishnamoorthi-health/index.html">marketing of e-cigarettes to teenagers</a>. </p>
<h2>It’s all legit</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/10/house-vote-republicans-committee-investigate-government/">A Washington Post headline</a> on Jan. 10, 2023, described one of the newly announced GOP probes this way: “House Republicans form committee to investigate the government.” </p>
<p>That’s a broad brief for a committee. But the range of past investigations has shown that Congress can, essentially, investigate what it wants to investigate. Baseball one year, government the next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy. </span></em></p>The House GOP has announced a slew of investigations, including a review of the conduct of the Department of Justice and its investigations of Donald Trump.Claire Leavitt, Assistant Professor of Government, Smith CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1975842023-01-10T19:47:41Z2023-01-10T19:47:41ZDOJ probes Biden document handling – what is classified information, anyway?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503895/original/file-20230110-5012-za8i7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C23%2C5280%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What does it mean when a document is classified?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/classified-file-folder-royalty-free-image/579731538?phrase=classified%20documents&adppopup=true">Pgim/ iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Department of Justice is reviewing the discovery of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/us/politics/biden-classified-documents.html">classified documents found in an office</a> no longer used by President Joe Biden at a think tank in Washington, D.C.</p>
<p>There are superficial similarities linking what was described by Biden lawyers as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/09/biden-classified-documents-trump/">a small number</a>” of documents found at Biden’s former office and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/us/politics/trump-mar-a-lago-documents.html">hundreds of classified documents kept by former President Donald Trump</a> after he left office. The Trump case has prompted a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fearless-special-counsel-jack-smith-arrives-washington-lead-trump-probes-2023-01-04/">major Department of Justice investigation</a> into the former president’s potential mishandling of classified materials. </p>
<p>What kind of information is contained in classified documents?</p>
<h2>Controlled and restricted</h2>
<p>Classified information is the kind of material that the U.S. government or an agency deems sensitive enough to national security that access to it must be controlled and restricted.</p>
<p>There are several degrees of classification. Documents related to nuclear weapons will have different classification levels depending on the sensitivity of the information contained. Documents containing information related to nuclear weapons design or their location would be highly classified. Other information may still be highly classified but deemed not as sensitive. For example, in 2010 <a href="https://fas.org/blogs/security/2014/04/nuclearstockpile/">President Barack Obama declassified</a> the number of nuclear weapons in the U.S. stockpile.</p>
<p>In general, classified documents must be handled in a way that protects the integrity and confidentiality of the information they contain. This includes securing documents in a safe or other authorized storage container when the documents are not being used by staff. If staff members need to move them from one place to another, they must follow security protocols to do so. </p>
<p>Though classified information can be taken off the premises in the course of official duties, taking classified documents home is prohibited by <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/executive-order-classified-national-security-information">executive order</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The head of a middle-aged man peers above the U.S. presidential insignia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478983/original/file-20220812-3890-kr4gqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478983/original/file-20220812-3890-kr4gqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478983/original/file-20220812-3890-kr4gqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478983/original/file-20220812-3890-kr4gqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478983/original/file-20220812-3890-kr4gqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478983/original/file-20220812-3890-kr4gqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478983/original/file-20220812-3890-kr4gqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. President Donald Trump at White House in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-looks-on-during-a-ceremony-news-photo/1229998808?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb /AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Clearance and classification</h2>
<p>Before coming to <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/cf/faculty-and-staff/faculty.cfm?pid=1006509">academia, I worked for many years</a> as an analyst at both the State Department and the Department of Defense. </p>
<p>I held a top secret clearance, frequently worked with classified information and participated in classified meetings. For example, I dealt with information related to weapons of mass destruction and their proliferation.</p>
<p>Handling written classified information is generally straightforward. Documents are marked indicating classification levels. </p>
<p>Tens of thousands of people working for the U.S. government both directly and as contractors <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/top-secret-america/2010/07/19/hidden-world-growing-beyond-control-2/">have security clearances allowing access to classified information</a>. Many people with security clearances never handle classified material but need to be cleared so they can be present when classified information is discussed.</p>
<p>But not all of classified details describe covert operations or identities of spies. Many are rather mundane. A former colleague of mine who was a retired CIA analyst used to tell his students he would never knowingly, but almost certainly would inadvertently, share a tidbit of classified information in the classroom. It is difficult to remember many “smaller” details that are sensitive.</p>
<p>Dealing with large amounts of classified information over a career increases the possibility of accidentally sharing a small nugget. Sharing classified information knowingly, or revealing information one should know is sensitive, is a different matter. </p>
<p>Here’s how the system of classification works.</p>
<h2>Classification levels and content</h2>
<p>The U.S. government uses <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/executive-order-classified-national-security-information">three levels of classification</a> to designate how sensitive certain information is: confidential, secret and top secret.</p>
<p>The lowest level, confidential, designates information whose release could damage U.S. national security. The designation “secret” refers to information whose disclosure could cause “serious” damage to U.S. national security. The designation “top secret” means disclosure of the document could cause “exceptionally grave” damage to national security. </p>
<p>At the top secret level, some information is “<a href="https://www.commerce.gov/osy/programs/information-security/sensitive-compartmented-information-sci-program">compartmented</a>.” That means only certain people who have a top secret security clearance may view it to reduce the risk of any revelations. Just because someone has a clearance at a level that matches a document doesn’t mean the person has a need to access it. </p>
<p>This is often used for the most highly sensitive information, such as that pertaining to sources and methods – that is, how and from where intelligence is collected.</p>
<p>Several other designations indicate restricted access within the top secret and secret designations. The <a href="https://www.directives.doe.gov/terms_definitions/critical-nuclear-weapon-design-information-cnwdi#:%7E:text=A%20DoD%20category%20of%20weapon,demolition%20munitions%2C%20or%20test%20device.">Critical Nuclear Weapon Design Information</a> is a designation given to classified material related to the design and operation of nuclear weapons. This designation would be in addition to a secret or top secret designation, but is not a level of classification. For example, a person with a top secret clearance working on counterinsurgency issues would not have Critical Nuclear Weapon Design Information access.</p>
<p>It is common for written documents to contain information that is classified at different levels, and some information that isn’t even classified. Individual paragraphs are marked to indicate the level of classification. For example, a document’s title might be preceded with the marker “U,” indicating the title and existence of the document are unclassified. </p>
<p>Within a document, paragraphs might carry the markers “S” for secret, “C” for confidential or “TS” for top secret. The highest classification of any portion of the document determines its overall classification. This approach allows for the easy identification and removal of classified portions of a document so that less sensitive sections can be shared in unclassified settings.</p>
<p>A sitting president can access any classified material. </p>
<h2>Who decides?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-01-05/pdf/E9-31418.pdf">Executive Order 13256</a>, issued by Obama, spells out who specifically may classify information.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A middle-aged man is leaving a stage as he walks past an American flag and the sign of the U.S. Justice Department." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478986/original/file-20220812-12-oe65ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478986/original/file-20220812-12-oe65ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478986/original/file-20220812-12-oe65ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478986/original/file-20220812-12-oe65ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478986/original/file-20220812-12-oe65ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478986/original/file-20220812-12-oe65ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478986/original/file-20220812-12-oe65ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland after making a public statement about the search of Donald Trump’s home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/attorney-general-merrick-garland-departs-after-delivering-a-news-photo/1242440951?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Authority to take certain information – say, the existence of a weapons program – and classify it top secret is given only to specific individuals, including the president and vice president and certain agency heads.</p>
<p>Procedures for <a href="https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12356.html#part3">declassification of materials are complicated</a>. However, the president has ultimate declassification authority and may declassify anything at any time, subject to certain provisions of the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-atomic-energy-act">Atomic Energy Act</a>.</p>
<p>Deciding what information is classified is subjective. Some things clearly need to be kept secret, like the identity of covert operatives or battle plans. Other issues are not so obvious. Should the mere fact that the secretary of state had a conversation with a counterpart be classified? Different agencies disagree about questions like this all the time.</p>
<p>Mishandling classified information, especially if it is accidental, is usually handled as an administrative matter. However, more serious violations can <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/us/petraeus-plea-deal-over-giving-classified-data-to-lover.html">incur criminal charges</a> and penalties. Federal law (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1924">18 U.S. Code § 1924</a>) states that anyone who “knowingly removes such documents or materials without authority and with the intent to retain such documents or materials at an unauthorized location shall be fined under this title or imprisoned for not more than five years, or both.”</p>
<p><em>This story is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-classified-information-and-who-gets-to-decide-77832">an article that was originally published</a> on May 16, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Fields does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What are classified documents? Who gets to see them? What happens if they are released? A former State Department and Department of Defense staffer who had top secret clearance provides the answers.Jeffrey Fields, Associate Professor of the Practice of International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1964292022-12-12T18:50:36Z2022-12-12T18:50:36ZUS-Africa summit: four things African leaders should try to get out of it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500427/original/file-20221212-112104-4pofku.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">At the 2022 US/Africa summit US President Joe Biden will be building on the 2014 gathering convened by Barack Obama.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>US president Joe Biden will be hosting African leaders at this <a href="https://www.state.gov/africasummit/">week’s summit</a>, as a group. This has its advantages. The 50 African leaders have the opportunity to articulate their common interests and adopt common positions at the gathering in Washington, DC. </p>
<p>The priorities they should be focusing on are the following.</p>
<p><strong>African Union membership of the G20 group of the world’s largest economies.</strong> It is important for Africa to be represented in international conversations that concern the global economy, democracy and governance, climate change, health and security. </p>
<p>Secondly, African leaders must continue to press for <strong>two permanent seats on the <a href="https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/">UN Security Council</a>.</strong> The transnational challenges of cross-border conflict, terrorism, transnational crime, poverty and pandemics necessitate transformation of the UN through the equitable distribution of decision-making power. The UN itself recommended this <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Publications/A.59.2005.Add.3.pdf">in 2005</a>. So did the <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/ejc-aa_afrus-v10-n1-a4">Ezulwini consensus</a>, the official common African position on how to reform the Security Council, adopted in 2005.</p>
<p>Thirdly, they must press for <strong>membership of the Indo-Pacific region</strong> for African countries bordering the Indian Ocean. This is an issue for the summit because the US is a pivotal player in the region. It can help address Africa’s exclusion from this important multilateral decision-making organ, an emerging locale of <a href="https://perthusasia.edu.au/our-work/bringing-africa-into-the-indo-pacific">global economic growth</a>.</p>
<p>Fourth, they need to extract <strong>support for common African positions</strong> already taken on climate change, energy transition, asset recovery from illicit financial flows from the continent, and integration of gender equality in climate change action.</p>
<p>The leaders also need to build on the first summit, which was held under Barack Obama’s presidency <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/us-africa-leaders-summit">in 2014</a>.</p>
<p>These are lofty priorities that can benefit Africa in the short and long term. But, for these to accrue from the summit, African leaders must have a common purpose and present a united front. They must also be forthright in their commitment to good governance. </p>
<h2>What does the 2022 summit promise?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-africa-enduring-partnership/">According to the US State Department</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the summit will demonstrate the United States’ enduring commitment to Africa, and will underscore the importance of US-Africa relations and increased cooperation on shared global priorities.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is intended to build on US-Africa shared values to better:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>foster new economic engagement</p></li>
<li><p>advance peace, security, and good governance</p></li>
<li><p>reinforce commitment to democracy, human rights and civil society</p></li>
<li><p>work collaboratively to strengthen regional and global health security</p></li>
<li><p>promote food security</p></li>
<li><p>respond to the climate crisis</p></li>
<li><p>amplify diaspora ties</p></li>
<li><p>promote education and youth leadership.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Seen in this light, this summit should be assessed as an ongoing engagement. </p>
<h2>What was achieved in 2014</h2>
<p>At the 2014 summit, President Obama proposed $20 billion investments in electricity, US$7 billion in government financing to encourage US exports and investments in Africa, and an annual expenditure of US$110 million to help African countries develop peacekeeping forces.</p>
<p>A number of technical agreements were also signed. These include the <a href="https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/treaty-files/5102/download">Investment Framework Agreement</a> with the Economic Community of West African States. It provides a coordination mechanism for trade and investment issues.</p>
<p>President Obama also called on the US Congress to extend and improve the African Growth and Opportunity Act (<a href="https://agoa.info/about-agoa.html">Agoa</a>), which provides duty-free access to goods of designated African countries into the US. He also announced a new investment of US$110 million a year for three to five years to train African soldiers to battle terrorism and insurgency through the <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-peacekeeping-capacity-building-assistance/">Rapid Response Partnership programme</a>.</p>
<p>Africa indeed benefited from a number of these initiatives, although many remain unfulfilled. For example, in energy generation and distribution, the <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica">“Power Africa” project</a> became an enhanced platform for lighting up Africa. Its original mandate was to add 30,000 megawatts of cleaner and more reliable electricity generation to connect 590 million people in Africa. So far, 6,501 megawatts has been generated, providing power to 165.4 million people <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/aboutus">for the first time</a>.</p>
<p>Prior to the first African summit in 2014, Agoa, which was meant to end in 2015, was <a href="https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/trade-development/preference-programs/african-growth-and-opportunity-act-agoa">extended to 2025</a>. Since then, it has enabled African countries to export (duty free) non-oil products worth US$33 billion <a href="https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/preference-programs/african-growth-and-opportunity-act-agoa/trade-statistics">between 2014 and 2021</a>. Also, $267 million was budgeted for 2015-2017 for capacity building support for African militaries.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>The 2022 summit is expected to produce some concrete outcomes too.</p>
<p>For example, the US will continue to push the “infrastructure card” in Africa. This is generally believed to be a challenge to <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri">China’s “Belt and Road” initiative</a>, the massive infrastructure project intended to stretch from East Asia to Europe. </p>
<p>It includes the ambitious $600 billion US-led G7 <a href="https://it.usembassy.gov/g7-launches-plan-to-boost-global-infrastructure-investment/#:%7E:text=Through%20the%20partnership%2C%20the%20G7,funding%20for%20infrastructure%20by%202027">Partnership for Global Infrastructure Initiative</a>. As indicated in its Africa strategy launched in August 2022, the US proposes to</p>
<blockquote>
<p>leverage and streamline financing and co-invest to deliver game-changing projects to strengthen economies, diversify supply chains, and advance US and African national security.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The initiative will also complement new and existing efforts, including <a href="https://www.prosperafrica.gov/">Prosper Africa</a>, <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica">Power Africa</a>, <a href="https://www.feedthefuture.gov/">Feed the Future</a>, and a new initiative for digital transformation, to help close the global infrastructure gap in the continent. </p>
<p>Most of the “model projects” are already in place. These include the solar energy project <a href="https://energycapitalpower.com/angola-us-2-billion-for-solar-energy/">supported by the US in Angola</a> and the vaccine production facility <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/new-vaccine-plant-senegal-gets-75-million-euros-eib-2022-06-02/">in Senegal</a>. Another is the submarine telecommunications cables connecting Singapore and France, <a href="https://blog.telegeography.com/new-cables-are-coming-to-africa">passing through Egypt and the Horn of Africa</a>.</p>
<p>However, the continent needs to be ready to use these and other opportunities offered by superpower competition in Africa between the US, China and Russia. This is likely going to last for decades, given Africa’s global geo-strategic value. </p>
<h2>What African leaders need to deliver</h2>
<p>African leaders also need to step up.</p>
<p>Firstly, they need to answer whether the state in Africa is still fit for purpose as it was designed to be extractive and exploitative. That also produced a notion of parasitic governance which <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24017858#metadata_info_tab_contents">continues</a>. This partly explains why, decades after political independence, many African states struggle to fulfil the basic functions of a state – protecting citizens from internal and external aggression, good governance and service delivery.</p>
<p>They also need to explore and make more concrete the idea of providing cooperative regional leadership shared between sub-regional leaders in the continent such as Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Rwanda. </p>
<p>Last, Africa must invest in more research centres that study the superpowers and use the knowledge to develop both national and regional policies towards them. That way we will someday talk of Africa-US policy and Africa-China policy, instead of always the other way round. </p>
<p>These are ways to avoid Africa being cherry-picked by superpowers. Hopefully, in future, superpower leaders will visit Addis Ababa instead of 50-plus African leaders visiting one leader elsewhere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Isike does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Judging by the first summit in 2014, this one can also be expected to produce some concrete outcomes.Christopher Isike, Director, African Centre for the Study of the United States, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1943942022-11-18T16:31:46Z2022-11-18T16:31:46ZUS politics: midterm elections have handed Joe Biden a divided Congress – history tells us that’s bad for good government<p>Contrary to the expectations of many observers, the “red wave” stopped at the House of Representatives and only delivered the Republican Party a <a href="https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/house/">small majority</a>. The Senate, though, will remain under Democrat control. So the US Congress will be divided until the 2024 election and the Biden administration no longer has the numbers to get its legislative programme through without a fight – or at least, negotiation “across the aisle”.</p>
<p>And that can be a problem for US governance – sustainable solutions to major policy issues need both congressional and presidential approval. A failure to provide answers for pressing issues will further depress public opinion about the government and democratic institutions.</p>
<p>From now until January 2024, presidential influence on lawmaking is largely diminished. To become a law, a proposed bill requires first the approval of both chambers and second the signature of the president. If the two chambers are unable to agree on a common version of a bill or if the bill is vetoed by the president, the proposed policy change is not enacted and the status quo prevails. The production of laws therefore needs a higher level of bipartisan support.</p>
<p>Divided government increases the chances of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctvb937r3">political gridlock</a> and reduces the likelihood that presidential proposals will become law. It raises the chance of a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00017041">government shutdown</a> and corresponds to fewer acts of significant legislation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/ssh.2017.42">per congress</a>.</p>
<p>Two factors will make the next two years particularly difficult. The first stems from accelerating levels of polarisation among legislators. The second is the presence of presidential reelection concerns, if Joe Biden decides to run again in two years time.</p>
<p>Polarisation has reduced Congress’s capacity to legislate and, as a result, public policy <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/polarization-9780190867782?cc=it&lang=en&">is unable to adjust</a> to changing economic and demographic circumstances. As the distance between the preferred policy of legislators, less legislation is created and eventually passes Congress. Policy debate is replaced with <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2585572">acts of obstructionism</a> and <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/thomas-e-mann/its-even-worse-than-it-looks/9780465096206/">acts of grandstanding</a>, where politicians simply signal their policy position to their constituents.</p>
<p>Situations that combine polarisation, divided government and reelection motives of presidents reinforce these tendencies. Consider the 112th Congress after the first midterms during Barack Obama’s administration which ran from 2011 to 2013, or the 116th Congress which ran from 2019 to 2021, after the midterms during Donald Trump’s term of office. Like Joe Biden now, Obama and Trump faced a divided government after the midterms and both were up for reelection. The graph below shows that this resulted in particular strong falls in the number of new laws passed (25% for Obama, 22% for Trump).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494919/original/file-20221112-12923-f55zfv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494919/original/file-20221112-12923-f55zfv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494919/original/file-20221112-12923-f55zfv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494919/original/file-20221112-12923-f55zfv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494919/original/file-20221112-12923-f55zfv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494919/original/file-20221112-12923-f55zfv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494919/original/file-20221112-12923-f55zfv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The figure calculates the number of laws by congress. Switches from unified to divided government are highlighted in yellow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author calculations. Data: https://www.govinfo.gov/</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Beyond the quantity of legislation, the shift from unified to divided government during the Obama era also influenced the type of legislation enacted. The laws that passed after the midterms in 2010 were more often related to public goods, such as defence or infrastructure, rather than private legislation. Moreover, the share of bipartisan co-sponsors on passed laws grew from 38% to 47%, while minority party support in voting climbed from below 40% to about 60%. The graph below demonstrates that approved laws became more complex (3% for Obama, 8% for Trump) as they had for example more exemptions built in to attract a degree of bipartisan support.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494920/original/file-20221112-14-te8e0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494920/original/file-20221112-14-te8e0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494920/original/file-20221112-14-te8e0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494920/original/file-20221112-14-te8e0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494920/original/file-20221112-14-te8e0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494920/original/file-20221112-14-te8e0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494920/original/file-20221112-14-te8e0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The figure calculates the complexity of laws, defined as the share of sentences with contingencies, by congress. Switches from unified to divided government are highlighted in yellow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author calculations. Data: https://www.govinfo.gov/</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legislative footprint of the next congress</h2>
<p>The result of the recent midterms is likely to shape the legislative footprint of the government even more when compared to those historically comparable cases.</p>
<p>This is because of the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">extent of polarisation</a> between the representatives of the two parties in the US Congress. As this polarisation keeps increasing, we believe that the drop in the number of new laws passed will be even sharper than in the previous cases. Growing polarisation reduces the policy space on which legislators are willing to compromise and thus leads to more gridlock. </p>
<p>This naturally translates into a high chance of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/us-government-shutdown-7394">government shutdowns</a> as strongly partisan legislators are determined to undermine their opponents’ political agenda regardless of the costs. For example, the upcoming negotiations between Biden and House Republicans over raising the debt limit will be a <a href="https://punchbowl.news/archive/101822-punchbowl-news-am/">particularly thorny issue</a>.</p>
<p>Added to that, the democratic majority in the Senate and the possibility of a Biden veto makes the passage of partisan bills proposed by Republicans in the House virtually impossible. But the same thing cuts both ways – and Democrat-sponsored legislation that gets through is unlikely to include progressive social policy proposals on Bidens’ agenda – for example provisions that protect Roe v. Wade or ban assault-weapon sales.</p>
<p>There is also a likelihood that the quality of the legislation might deteriorate. Recent research suggests that excessive legislative activism by either side <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/fgb64ee3oqryab8/AAAjisWSP0lxtaMpQ-sn4SzGa?dl=0">worsens the quality of laws</a>. As this study investigates a period when congress was substantially less polarised (1973-1989), the currently much higher level and continuing rise of polarisation in the American public creates powerful incentives for legislators to demonstrate their activism to their constituents via the bills they propose. This will limit Congress’s ability to carefully improve submitted legislation.</p>
<p>Phases of divided government with reduced legislative activity have also been associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2020.51">positive reform</a> of institutions such as the civil service. But the current environment – with the severe distrust in institutions and politics that prevails – makes such efforts unlikely. </p>
<p>This could become everyone’s problem. The divided Congress is likely to mean a reduced chance of policy agreement on issues such as climate change or the US approach to the Russia-Ukraine war. It’s that serious.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The current political polarisation will make the president’s job even harder.Christoph Pfeufer, Postdoctoral Researcher in Political Economy, Bocconi UniversityMassimo Morelli, Professor of Economics and Political Science, Bocconi UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948942022-11-18T12:14:45Z2022-11-18T12:14:45ZNancy Pelosi was the key Democratic messenger of her generation – passing the torch will empower younger leadership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496096/original/file-20221118-12-4r4lvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C107%2C5964%2C3880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nancy Pelosi's stepping aside will leave the door open for others.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-nancy-pelosi-is-greeted-by-senate-news-photo/1244855354?phrase=pelosi&adppopup=true">Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The announcement by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that she will not run for another senior post opens the door for a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/us/politics/pelosi-jeffries-clark-house-democrats.html">new generation of national leaders in the Democratic Party</a>. </p>
<p>Pelosi confirmed she is <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/video/pelosi-steps-down-from-house-leadership-ends-groundbreaking-era/">stepping away from leadership positions</a> on Nov. 17, 2022, a decision that jump-starts a process that has long been desired by younger Democrats: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/17/pelosi-future-house-republican-majority/">generational change</a> and with it, potentially, new ideas to take the party forward.</p>
<p>That shift to younger leadership was shelved in February 2020. Then – after <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-calendar-isnt-helping-biden-but-his-iowa-performance-points-to-bigger-problems/">poor performances by Joe Biden in early primaries</a> – Democratic primary voters unified with astonishing swiftness behind his candidacy. The thinking was that a veteran party establishment official was needed to block Donald Trump and that the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/04/908524877/how-progressive-democrats-fared-this-primary-season-and-what-it-means">progressive agenda desired by some younger Democrats</a> might pose too great an electoral risk. </p>
<p>Turnover in the youth-challenged leadership of the Democratic House and Senate caucuses has similarly been frozen since then, with all Democratic legislative leaders over 70. As a <a href="https://batten.virginia.edu/people/gerald-warburg">professor of public policy who served as an assistant to members of leadership in both houses of Congress</a>, I understand why Democratic voters opted for stability in 2020. But now the coming change may be welcomed by Democrats and Republicans alike as an opportunity to pass the torch to a new, post-baby boomer generation with fresh ideas. Generational change may soon come on both sides of the political aisle.</p>
<h2>Power as a means, not an end</h2>
<p>Pelosi’s decision is both practical and timely. It comes as the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/16/1133125177/republicans-control-house-of-representatives">Republicans retake the House</a> with a wafer-thin majority and a divided <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/16/house-gop-analysis-congress">GOP caucus at war with itself</a>. Even former Republican speakers John Boehner and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/17/nancy-pelosi-house-speaker/">Newt Gingrich</a>, Pelosi’s longtime critics, are acknowledging her historic accomplishments, while noting her legacy will now include stepping away while at the top of her game.</p>
<p>Pelosi rose to become the most powerful woman in American history and the most effective legislator of the 21st century. She accomplished this at a time when polarization in politics meant she has endured vilification from political opponents that has had a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/david-depape-pleads-not-guilty-federal-charges/index.html">direct and violent impact</a> on her family.</p>
<p>A key to understanding the Pelosi legacy is weighing what she chose to do with her power. As I have <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3674393-pelosi-lawrence-and-the-arc-of-power%EF%BF%BC/">written elsewhere</a>, some politicians seek power fundamentally as a means to an end. For them leadership posts offer the tools needed to improve citizens’ lives or to advance an ideology. Such figures can be seen across the political divide in Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama and Gingrich. You don’t have to agree with their politics to see that they sought power primarily as a means to change policy: They had active legislative agendas.</p>
<p>Other leaders, however, seem to seek out power as part of a never-ending vanity project. </p>
<p>The history of Pelosi’s two four-year speakerships – from 2007 to 2010 and then again from 2019 to 2022 – provide evidence that she had an action agenda. Pelosi is on record repeatedly insisting that when one gains power, one should use it – and risk losing it – to promote the national interest and protect the most vulnerable. </p>
<p>Her record bears out that approach. In 2008 through 2010, she pushed controversial measures through the House, including the <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/data/troubled-assets-relief-program">TARP economic bailout</a>, the stimulus package, the Affordable Care Act, and the cap and trade climate bill – risking her political capital and imperiling the Democratic majority in the House.</p>
<p>Similarly in 2022, she pursued an ambitious legislative agenda despite concerns that it might contribute to a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/republican-wave-midterms-congress">Republican “red wave</a>” in the midterm elections. That wave did not materialize, but historically <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/republicans-win-control-of-the-us-house-with-narrow-margin">small Republican gains</a> were enough to mean she would lose the speakership of the House.</p>
<h2>Managing imperiled presidencies</h2>
<p>The longevity of Pelosi’s tenure is all the more remarkable given the fact that she worked alongside four different – and often troubled – presidencies. She <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/january-4-2007-nancy-pelosi-becomes-first-woman-elected-speaker-house-representatives/">first became House speaker in 2007</a> under the lame duck presidency of George W. Bush. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A woman in a light jacket stands behind a man in a suit as he waves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1054&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1054&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1054&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Nancy Pelosi looks on as President George W. Bush delivers the State of the Union address.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/january-2000-credit-rich-lipski-twp-washington-dc-president-news-photo/104570328?phrase=pelosi&adppopup=true">Rich Lipski/The The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Then she served that role under Obama just before his “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2010/11/03/131046118/obama-humbled-by-election-shellacking">shellacking” in midterm elections</a>; Trump through <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics-features/trump-second-impeachment">two impeachments</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/january-6-us-capitol-attack-128973">an insurrection</a>; then Biden, saddled with bitter national divisions. The Pelosi speakership was the one constant as four different presidents dealt with national threats. </p>
<p>Yet Pelosi managed to work through a deeply polarized Congress scores of bills that impacted the lives of everyday Americans. Her legislative accomplishments include her stewardship of the landmark <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/healthcare/about-the-aca/index.html">Affordable Care Act</a>. She worked with Bush to <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/02/20080213-3.html">rescue the American economy</a> in the financial crisis of 2008 – when the Republican caucus refused to provide votes needed to shore up the economy. </p>
<p>She also worked with the reluctant Trump administration to provide <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/27/950133658/trump-signs-covid-19-relief-package-after-threatening-to-derail-it">pandemic relief</a> amid a global health crisis and in early 2022 shepherded through Congress the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">largest infrastructure investment bill</a> ever. </p>
<h2>Toughness leading a divided caucus</h2>
<p>Profiles of Pelosi invariably comment on her toughness, a quality admired by both Obama and <a href="https://www.thewrap.com/boehner-pelosi-republicans/">Boehner</a>. She also led a Democratic caucus often divided by ideology, region, culture, identity politics and generational differences. Some on the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/politics/pelosi-progressives-infrastructure-biden-agenda">left suspected her</a> establishment ties. Critics on the right gleefully <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/nancy-pelosi-and-coming-battle-house-leadership/575278/">vilified her as some “San Francisco socialist</a>.”</p>
<p>Even the professorial Obama confessed he sometimes felt <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2010/02/family-feud-pelosi-at-odds-with-obama-032863">hectored by her passionate advocacy</a>. Republicans campaigned repeatedly on the simple pledge to “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/31/pelosi-attack-gop-strategist-condemn/">Fire Pelosi</a>,” spending hundreds of millions on crude ads devoid of a legislative agenda.</p>
<p>One can disagree with her positions, however, while still recognizing that Pelosi has been a fierce and effective advocate advancing her majority’s agenda.</p>
<p>The record shows that her results-oriented approach has been consistent in its goals and clear in its principles. Such clarity has provided leadership to the nation in fractured times. Her singular focus on advancing her caucus’ legislative agenda has made her the key Democratic Party messenger of her generation. </p>
<p>She has now had the courage to step back, making way for a new leaders and new ideas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerald Warburg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced she will step aside from senior leadership. It could lead to generational change in the Democratic Party.Gerald Warburg, Professor of Practice of Public Policy at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.