tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/cairns-12073/articlesCairns – The Conversation2023-12-18T02:57:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200392023-12-18T02:57:15Z2023-12-18T02:57:15ZNorth Queensland’s record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what’s to come under climate change<p>Unprecedented rain brought by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-13/qld-tropical-cyclone-jasper-weather-pattern-warning-bom/103220130">Tropical Cyclone Jasper</a> has triggered widespread flooding in far north Queensland, forcing thousands of people to evacuate. Cairns airport is <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/weather/cairns-down-to-30-hours-of-water-supply-tinaroo-dam-to-spill/news-story/0a25a5096a1219ae031f02fd6c0ea145">closed</a>, roads are extensively damaged and residents in the city’s northern beaches are cut off by floodwaters.</p>
<p>Some rain gauges in the Barron and Daintree River catchments recorded <a href="https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/12/18/cairns-flooding">more than 2m of rain</a> over recent days, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-18/qld-record-flooding-far-north-monday/103239260">more rain is expected</a>. Water levels in the lower Barron River have <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/far-north-queensland-hit-by-heavy-rain-flash-flooding/news-story/9731b48d321bb7a60ecaf8e26c7d7dd4">smashed the previous record</a> set by devastating floods in <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/6858263">March 1977</a>. On Monday morning, the Daintree River was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/27/queensland-flooding-emergency-alert-as-daintree-river-beats-118-year-record">more than 2m</a> higher than the previous 118-year-old flood level, recorded in 2019.</p>
<p>The full impacts of the flood are not yet clear. But there’s likely to be significant damage to properties and public infrastructure, and negative effects for industries such as tourism and agriculture. Recovery is likely to take many months.</p>
<p>So let’s take a closer look at what caused this emergency – and what to expect as climate change worsens.</p>
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<h2>A ‘sweet spot’ for torrential rain</h2>
<p>Tropical Cyclone Jasper <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/99359">crossed the coas</a>t north of Cairns on Wednesday last week, tracking over the remote Indigenous community of Wujal Wujal. Damage from wind and storm surge was minimal, but Jasper still produced more than 800mm of rain across the Daintree and Mossman River catchments.</p>
<p>Late Wednesday, the cyclone was downgraded to a tropical low. It crossed southern Cape York Peninsula and headed towards the Gulf of Carpentaria. By Friday, local tourism agencies and operators <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/touring-resumes-in-tropical-north-queensland/news-story/77c2b9db23c9bac95599911f363b346e?fbclid=IwAR1kxHaWGj7xfSwmjcoe_ULs0l6Ulc-vhXLqgZYSIQUTQAX5Y156R2FAYyo">announced</a> they were back in business, inviting visitors back to the region.</p>
<p>However, by Saturday morning, a significant rainfall and flood emergency was unfolding across a 360 kilometre swathe from Cooktown to Ingham. So what happened? </p>
<p>The ex-cyclone stalled just inland from the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, creating a sweet spot for torrential rain known as a “stationary convergence zone”. Incredibly moist tropical winds collided over a narrow zone between Port Douglas and Innisfail. This effect converged with northerly winds from the Gulf of Carpentaria and southeast trade winds from the Coral Sea. Local mountain ranges created extra uplift. All this led to non-stop torrential rain for 48 hours.</p>
<p>As a result, an emergency situation rapidly grew across Cairns and the Barron River delta to its immediate north. </p>
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<h2>Townsville floods: similar but different</h2>
<p>This extreme flood event bears some similarity to that which caused <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">significant damage to Townsville</a> in February 2019. Both were associated with a stationary convergence zone caused by a stalled tropical low located to their northwest. In the case of Townsville, the tropical low did not budge for more than ten days. In that time, Townsville received the equivalent of a year’s average rainfall.</p>
<p>Otherwise, the two events are very different. </p>
<p>Firstly, the Townsville floods occurred during a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-ENSO.shtml">neutral year</a> – that is, in the absence of the climate drivers La Niña and El Niño. But the current flood event has occurred during an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">El Niño</a>, when tropical cyclones are much less likely to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/#:%7E:text=Tropical%20cyclones%20in%20the%20Australian,fewer%20during%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20years.">occur in the Australian region</a>, especially in early December.</p>
<p>Secondly, the deep tropical low that caused the 2019 Townsville floods was embedded in an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=monsoon#:%7E:text=Low%20pressure%20is%20created%2C%20which,or%20an%20%22inactive%22%20phase">active monsoon trough</a>, which sucked in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">very moist equatorial air from Indonesia</a>. But unusually, Cyclone Jasper did not form in such conditions. The monsoon trough is still to appear and form over northern Australia. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>What’s climate change got to do with it?</h2>
<p>As 2023 closes as the <a href="https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2023-shatters-climate-records-major-impacts">warmest year on record</a>, there is growing global concern about the rise of <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/climate-change-qa/impacts">extreme weather events</a> such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.</p>
<p>The atmosphere and oceans are warming due to increasing emissions of <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/what-is-climate-change/#:%7E:text=Global%20warming%20is%20the%20long,gas%20levels%20in%20Earth%27s%20atmosphere.">greenhouse gases</a>, largely caused by burning fossil fuels. This has led to a greater risk of extreme rainfall and flooding, such as the events we’re seeing now in far north Queensland. </p>
<p>For every 1°C rise in average global temperature, the atmosphere can hold <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/">an extra 7% water vapour</a>. When the right atmospheric “triggers” are in place, this extra water vapour is released as intense rainfall.</p>
<p>It’s too soon to attribute the current extreme rain and flooding to climate change. But as the world continues to warm, such events will become more frequent and severe.</p>
<p>Already, extreme flood events globally are becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">more regular</a> and their magnitude is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">breaking</a> many long-term rainfall and river flood records. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">As extreme downpours trigger flooding around the world, scientists take a closer look a global warming's role</a>
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<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, local and state authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the “new normal” of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?</p>
<p>Since the big <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/brochures/barron/barron.shtml">Barron River flood in March 1977</a>, considerable residential and commercial development has been permitted across the river’s floodplain. In many cases, these earlier developments were approved without full consideration of <a href="https://www.cairns.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/489618/Planning-Scheme-Policy-Natural-hazards-Version-2.0.pdf">future floods</a>. Many were also approved before local government planning started taking sea level rise into consideration.</p>
<p>The wider Cairns community will recover from this extreme event and will hopefully take on board any problems identified in the emergency responses. In future, emergency planning must take the effects of climate change more seriously. This includes increases in sea level, and more intense tropical cyclones, storm surges, rainfall and flooding.</p>
<p>As of this month, a climate emergency had been declared in <a href="https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emergency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/">2,351 jurisdictions and local government areas</a> around the world. As a result, many jurisdictions have developed response plans. In Australia, local governments should recognise climate change threats and risks by formally declaring a climate emergency.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian government.</span></em></p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the ‘new normal’ of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1485292020-10-22T01:06:31Z2020-10-22T01:06:31ZQueensland’s LNP wants a curfew for kids, but evidence suggests this won’t reduce crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364873/original/file-20201021-19-15pomxu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marty Silk/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One can always sense an <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-unpredictable-election-begins-expect-a-close-campaign-focused-on-3-questions-146927">election is looming</a> when law and order becomes headline news. </p>
<p>As Queenslanders head towards election day on October 31, the state’s opposition leader Deb Frecklington <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/trial-curfew-for-teens-out-late-in-townsville-and-cairns-lnp-proposes-20201021-p5674g.html">has announced</a> that, if elected, the Liberal National Party will trial a curfew for children. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-queensland-campaign-passes-the-halfway-mark-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose-148267">As the Queensland campaign passes the halfway mark, the election is still Labor's to lose</a>
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<p>In Townsville and Cairns, the LNP would introduce an 8pm curfew for unaccompanied children aged 14 and under, and a 10pm curfew for those aged 15 to 17. </p>
<p>Frecklington said under the planned six-month trial, teenagers would have to prove to police they had a reasonable excuse to be out at night, or be put in a “refuge”. Parents would be fined $250. </p>
<p>This is similar to a policy the party took to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-02/under-16s-in-townsville-face-curfew-if-lnp-wins-qld-election/9109614">2017 state election</a>. </p>
<h2>‘Dog pound for kids’</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/parties/qld-coronavirus-premier-to-provide-covid19-update/news-story/dd3298cd8665405c301dd7c08494f9bc">Labor Party</a> and <a href="https://www.qldonenation.org.au/law-and-order">One Nation</a> have both announced populist “tough on crime” policies in the run up to the election, but neither has endorsed a curfew. Labor’s <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-warned-youth-curfew-plan-could-breach-international-law-20201021-p567ci.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed">Police Minister Mark Ryan</a> labelled the LNP’s plan a “simplistic answer to a complex problem”.</p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party has warned a curfew will result in a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-21/qld-election-2020-lnp-townsville-youth-curfew-crime-plan/12789276">dog pound for kids.</a>” </p>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EAboriginal%20and%20Torres%20Strait%20Islander%20Population%20-%20Queensland%7E10003">significant proportion</a> of young people in the far north of the state identifying as Indigenous, the Greens slammed the policy announcement as a “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/queensland-opposition-draws-accusations-of-dogwhistling-with-its-youth-curfew-election-pledge">racist dog whistle.</a>”</p>
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<img alt="Beach in Townsville." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364875/original/file-20201021-19-pv5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364875/original/file-20201021-19-pv5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364875/original/file-20201021-19-pv5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364875/original/file-20201021-19-pv5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364875/original/file-20201021-19-pv5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364875/original/file-20201021-19-pv5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364875/original/file-20201021-19-pv5fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">There are three marginal seats around Townsville.</span>
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<p>There is little doubt the LNP announcement is pitched primarily at voters in and around Townsville, where <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-election-2020-live-updates-deputy-premier-miles-labels-one-nation-freaks-and-weirdos/live-coverage/a9dc27526ab3b254ce28882eb3288401">three marginal seats</a> are up for grabs — and which some commentators suggest <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-21/analysis-why-queensland-election-could-come-down-to-townsville/12759052">could decide</a> the election. </p>
<p>Youth crime in Townsville is perceived to be a problem, although some experts say <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/27/and-embellishment-the-myth-fuelling-queensland-election-debate">this is overblown</a>. Whatever the reality, tackling the perceptions is clever politics.</p>
<h2>Are curfews legal?</h2>
<p>This year, COVID-19 has reminded us governments do have the power to enact legislation that places a brake on where and when people can be out in public. </p>
<p>This is so long as there are overriding reasons in the interests of public safety, and a lockdown <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-a-high-court-challenge-of-melbournes-lockdown-succeed-heres-what-the-constitution-says-147904">is not a disproportionate</a> limitation on freedom of movement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-did-the-northbridge-wa-curfew-see-a-dramatic-drop-in-crime-87016">FactCheck: did the Northbridge WA curfew see a 'dramatic drop' in crime?</a>
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<p>So, the imposition of curfews in cities and towns around Australia has never been illegal, and indeed they have been implemented in the past. In relation to Aboriginal Australians, they were in place <a href="http://museum.wa.gov.au/explore/articles/don-t-keep-history-mystery-national-reconciliation-week">well into the 20th century</a>.</p>
<p>While Amnesty International says the proposed Queensland curfew <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-warned-youth-curfew-plan-could-breach-international-law-20201021-p567ci.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed">may breach </a> Australia’s commitment to the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/crc.aspx">Convention on the Rights of the Child</a>, this is unlikely to dislodge the zeal of politicians keen to display their “tough on crime” credentials.</p>
<h2>Do curfews work?</h2>
<p>Various studies have looked at specific curfews in the past, <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-did-the-northbridge-wa-curfew-see-a-dramatic-drop-in-crime-87016">both here in Australia</a> and in <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002716202250944">the United States</a>. </p>
<p>Evidence of their effectiveness is weak.</p>
<p>To my mind, the best evidence comes from meta-analyses, studies that amalgamate the findings of only the most trustworthy scholarship into one place. One of the most reputable meta-analysis research conglomerates in the world is the <a href="https://campbellcollaboration.org/">Campbell Collaboration</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Young people at a skateboard ramp." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364876/original/file-20201021-24-1ophfii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364876/original/file-20201021-24-1ophfii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364876/original/file-20201021-24-1ophfii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364876/original/file-20201021-24-1ophfii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364876/original/file-20201021-24-1ophfii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364876/original/file-20201021-24-1ophfii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364876/original/file-20201021-24-1ophfii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Queensland LNP wants to trial a curfew for kids and young people for six months.</span>
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<p>Their researchers undertook a <a href="https://campbellcollaboration.org/better-evidence/juvenile-curfew-effects-on-behaviour.html">systematic review</a>, up to 2014, of all the quantitative studies that had assessed the effect of a curfew on criminal behaviour and victimisation. Twelve studies met their rigorous standards. </p>
<p>According to their summary, the evidence suggests juvenile curfews do not reduce crime or victimisation. </p>
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<p>[…]all the studies in the review suffer from some limitations that make it difficult to draw firm conclusions. Nonetheless, the lack of any credible evidence in their favor suggests that any effect is likely to be small at best and that curfews are unlikely to be a meaningful solution to juvenile crime and disorder.</p>
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<h2>Are there counterproductive consequences?</h2>
<p>There is another problem for advocates of a curfew. Imposing a curfew may make matters worse.</p>
<p>For one thing, proponents are likely to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/27/and-embellishment-the-myth-fuelling-queensland-election-debate">exaggerate the problem</a>, while pretending crime issues will be solved simply by taking unaccompanied children off the streets at night. </p>
<p>But the most puzzling incongruity is there is also plenty of evidence to suggest <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-cut-australias-48-billion-crime-bill-73272">what should be done</a> to alleviate the disorder and dysfunction curfews are designed to address. </p>
<p>The evidence is clear: whatever we do must stem the flow of <a href="https://www.justicereforminitiative.org.au/youth">young offenders</a> into the justice system in the first place. By targeting and detaining the inevitable number who will flout the new law, curfews will bring about exactly the opposite. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-year-olds-do-not-belong-in-detention-why-australia-must-raise-the-age-of-criminal-responsibility-142483">Ten-year-olds do not belong in detention. Why Australia must raise the age of criminal responsibility</a>
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<p>Currently <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-are-indigenous-australians-the-most-incarcerated-people-on-earth-78528">Indigenous over representation</a> in the justice system is a national disgrace. Schemes designed to mentor and guide all young people, and Aboriginal young people especially, to enhance their life-skills and their prospects of education and employment must be prioritised. </p>
<p>There is no lack of potential guidance in this respect. </p>
<p>The recently launched <a href="https://www.justicereforminitiative.org.au/">Justice Reform Initiative</a> — of which I am a patron — boasts dozens of experts, Indigenous and non-Indigenous, who are available to guide and direct political parties to develop policies that build safe and supportive communities. </p>
<p>This is done by strengthening <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/reconnected">community connections</a>, not isolating and stigmatising their most disengaged members.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre is President of the SA Council for Civil Liberties and a Member of the State Council of the SA Labor Party.</span></em></p>The Queensland opposition wants an 8pm curfew for children under 14 and 10pm for those under 17, in Townsville and Cairns.Rick Sarre, Emeritus Professor of Law and Criminal Justice, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1250632019-10-24T19:01:38Z2019-10-24T19:01:38ZYou can’t boost Australia’s north to 5 million people without a proper plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298039/original/file-20191022-28125-1prd8ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5984%2C3341&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could Darwin one day be home to more than a million people?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/geoffwhalan/48641064733/">Geoff Whalan/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Any moves to greatly increase the population of northern Australian by 2060 could have a devastating impact on the local environment without long-term careful planning by all tiers of government.</p>
<p>That’s the finding of <a href="https://tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2019.1620302" title="The consequences of three urbanisation scenarios for northern Australia">research</a> that looked at several scenarios to increase the population of the north to 5 million people.</p>
<p>That’s an extra 3.7 million people, or an almost four-fold increase in the current population of northern Australia.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-why-congestion-charging-is-fairer-than-you-might-think-124894">Three charts on: why congestion charging is fairer than you might think</a>
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<hr>
<p>But, given the potential impact of climate change on northern Australia, we could see population movement the other way as people in the north head south.</p>
<h2>Northern exposure</h2>
<p>The region of Australia above the Tropic of Capricorn covers an area of 3,500,000km² – about 45% of Australia’s landmass – yet it houses only 5% of its population.</p>
<p>Proponents of development envisage extreme population growth because of the region’s growing geopolitical importance. </p>
<p>Northern Australia has <a href="https://adcforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/NDS14_report_web_sample.pdf" title="NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT Creating the future Australia">already been identified</a> as a “gateway to Asia”.</p>
<p>It’s also <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h8n3" title="The Nature of Northern Australia: Its natural values, ecological processes and future prospects">described</a> as the largest intact “savanna remaining on Earth […] with a rich biodiversity of international significance”.</p>
<p>Current federal government planning for northern Australia is in the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/our-north-our-future-white-paper-on-developing-northern-australia">Our North, Our Future</a> white paper, released in 2015.</p>
<p>The report adopts a pro-development stance, seeing the north as a place of economic bounty and opportunity. </p>
<p>While it is mute on issues of settlement patterns, there are statements that allude to the government’s support for significant urbanisation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We need to lay the foundations for rapid population growth and put the north on a trajectory to reach a population of four to five million by 2060.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The white paper also refers to “the development of major population centres of more than a million people”. Such cities would be around six times the size of the current largest northern city of Townsville, <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/UCL303004?opendocument">population about 180,000</a>.</p>
<h2>Three plans for growth</h2>
<p>Given the existing city planning documents do not countenance the scale of population growth projected in the white paper, we developed three scenarios for how the federal government could distribute this northern Australian population of 5 million by 2060. </p>
<h3>Scenario 1: Growth</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298027/original/file-20191022-56220-fspunk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 1: Growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Economic and lifestyle factors concentrate the increased population in the four dominant northern cities of Darwin, Cairns, Townsville and Mackay. Each would have populations of more than a million by 2060.</p>
<h3>Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298028/original/file-20191022-56198-16qw0fx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 2: Decentralised Growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The populations of Port Hedland, Broome, Kununurra, Darwin, Cairns, Bowen, Townsville and McKay will each increase by 462,000 people.</p>
<h3>Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth</h3>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298029/original/file-20191022-56242-1q6fv76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Economic opportunities see northern Australia’s growing population concentrated in Darwin, which would grow by 1.5 million people by 2060.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/requiem-or-renewal-this-is-how-a-tropical-city-like-darwin-can-regain-its-cool-102839">Requiem or renewal? This is how a tropical city like Darwin can regain its cool</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This figure is in line with the Australian government’s vision of northern cities with “more than a million people”.</p>
<h2>The fate of the north</h2>
<p>Irrespective of the scenario, our findings show population growth will not be good for the local environment without any overarching long-term planning frameworks to steer urbanisation. </p>
<p>This is particularly the case for scenarios 1 and 3 where the required increase in urban area either outstrips, or is only just commensurate with, the availability of cleared land adjacent to Darwin, Cairns and Townsville. </p>
<p>As such, population growth at the scale proposed by the white paper could result in substantial destruction, degradation and fragmentation of peri-urban ecosystems – where urban meets rural – by urban development and expanding road networks. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298034/original/file-20191022-56228-1mcel56.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 1: Growth for Darwin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Darwin’s case, in Scenario 1 the additional 925km² of urbanisation required would sprawl south of the city in a corridor to as far as Humpty Doo (1) and down to Acacia Hills (2).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298033/original/file-20191022-56215-1cto1wd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 1: Growth for Townsville.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Townsville, in Scenario 1 for growth, the additional 925km² of urbanisation would result in sprawling along the coast and around the existing centres of Giru (1) and Woodstock (2), and around Mount Surround (3).</p>
<p>While Townsville has 957km² of cleared land and theoretically could just accommodate this growth, it is likely to cause extensive damage to the local environment through land degradation and fragmentation by urban development. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298035/original/file-20191022-56224-1294zua.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario 3: Concentrated Growth for Darwin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Darwin, with Scenario 3 and concentrated growth, the urban expansion required for the city is 1,500km². This would dwarf the city’s 296km² of developable land and result in substantial clearing of remnant vegetation.</p>
<h2>Proper planning required</h2>
<p>Clearly then, if the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without any comprehensive planning, the result will be harmful for the north. </p>
<p>To avoid this fate we need a bipartisan settlement strategy (most closely resembling Scenario 2) to steer the urbanisation of northern Australia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-bank-urges-cities-to-invest-in-new-infrastructure-to-adapt-to-climate-change-124488">Global bank urges cities to invest in new infrastructure to adapt to climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Policymakers and planners should develop this strategy based on a comprehensive landscape analysis of northern Australia. If the scale of population growth envisaged in the white paper occurs without such planning, the result will be ruinous for one of the world’s last great wildernesses. </p>
<p>But the federal government should also decide whether a population of 5 million in the north is something we should aspire to at all.</p>
<p>If the worst climate change projections are borne out, we could end up with migration from cities such as Darwin to cities further south, even into the southern states.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Bolleter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government wants more people to live in Australia’s north. So we looked at three scenarios to increase the population and the results don’t always look good for the north.Julian Bolleter, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1072632018-12-10T18:55:42Z2018-12-10T18:55:42ZCities can grow without wrecking reefs and oceans. Here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248335/original/file-20181203-194953-1yx65zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cairns has lots of hard grey infrastructure but much less green infrastructure that would reduce the impacts of the city's growth.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karine Dupré</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“<a href="https://www.iyor2018.org/">What happens if the water temperature rises by a few degrees?</a>” is the 2018 <a href="https://www.icriforum.org/about-icri/iyor">International Year of the Reef</a> leading question. While the ocean is the focus, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">urbanisation</a> is the main reason for the rising temperatures and water pollution. Yet it receives little attention in this discussion. </p>
<p>In turn, rising temperatures <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-floods-we-can-pay-now-or-later-96160">increase downpours and urban floods</a>, adding to the pressures on urban infrastructure. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">Design for flooding: how cities can make room for water</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Protecting the reef as Cairns grows</h2>
<p>Cairns is an expanding Queensland city located between two World Heritage sites – the <a href="http://www.greatbarrierreef.org/about-the-reef">Great Barrier Reef</a> and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daintree_Rainforest">Daintree Rainforest</a>. While important research focuses on these sites themselves, not much is known about how the surrounding urban areas influence these natural environments. Similarly, little is known about how urban planning and design contribute to the health of the inner city and surrounding water bodies, including the ocean. </p>
<p>Cairns is a major Australian tourism destination with a unique coastal setting of rainforest and reef. This attracts growing numbers of visitors. One effect of this success is increased urbanisation to accommodate these tourists. </p>
<p>There are many opportunities to promote sustainable and socially acceptable growth in Cairns. Yet this growth is not without challenges. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li>impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise and ocean warming</li>
<li>lack of comprehensive urban infrastructure strategy</li>
<li>lack of comprehensive assessment of the benefits of integrated urban design to maximise coastal resilience and the health of streams and oceans. </li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249156/original/file-20181206-186055-r0mm58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rain gardens are common in Singapore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rogersoh/4742030401/in/photolist-8e39qR-8cTrF9-5ZVakG-6SD8Xr-dYNhd-5ZVULb-5ZVkTj-9WFvAV-d39rTQ-9WFtHH-9WJmQ1-9WFvgn-ojCd4B-8e3c2R-ojCdzB-5ZVUtA-5ZV7BU-8ur9JW-9SnZ4W-ov8N8x-9WFwY6-5ZV8Nf-c5y1kE-uLxdpo-o1nqXY-9WFwaa-ohFgoE-ot6Rgd-55jr8c-7jH9xY-2mMoCW-fVdLWn-6zSj5d-94ndL2-omyHjz-fzRSHi-oBpfnr-6dnEtg-m79GPr-FVFE9-eKdaHR-oi6UuW-einXy8-mKHUHk-5cFXGA-omswap-oV1kxp-oChdwV-oudGjB-9WFumT">Roger Soh/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As with most Australian cities, Cairns has an urban layout based on wide streets, mostly with little or no greenery. <a href="https://www.melbournewater.com.au/community-and-education/help-protect-environment/raingardens">Rain gardens</a>, for instance, are rare. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bioswale">Bioswales</a> that slow and filter stormwater are present along highways, but seldom within the city. </p>
<p>The arguments for not adding greenery to the urban environment are familiar. These typically relate to costs of implementation and maintenance, but also to the speed with which water is taken out of streets during the tropical rainy season. This is because green stormwater solutions, if not well planned, can slow down the water flow, thus increasing floods.</p>
<p>However, cities can be designed in a way to <a href="https://theconversation.com/stormwater-innovations-mean-cities-dont-just-flush-rainwater-down-the-drain-40129">imitate nature</a> with solutions that are an integral part of the urban system. This can include dedicated areas of larger wetlands and parks, which capture water and filter pollution and undesired nutrients more efficiently, reducing polluted runoff to the reef.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-planners-understand-its-cool-to-green-cities-whats-stopping-them-55753">If planners understand it's cool to green cities, what's stopping them?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Integrated urban design</h2>
<p>Integrated urban design is an aspect of city planning and design that could be further developed to ensure the whole system works more efficiently. This involves integrating the three elements that make up urban infrastructure: </p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-need-more-trees-and-water-not-less-to-stay-liveable-22166">the green</a> – parks, residential gardens, rain gardens, green roofs and walls, bioswales, etc</li>
<li>the grey – built drains, footpaths, buildings, <a href="http://www.envacgroup.com/products/our_products/envac-stationary-vacuum-system">underground vacuum
system</a>, etc</li>
<li><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Urbanism-Exploring-Connections-Between/dp/1610914058">the blue</a> – streams, stormwater systems, etc.</li>
</ol>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248338/original/file-20181203-194953-1cjc3uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248338/original/file-20181203-194953-1cjc3uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248338/original/file-20181203-194953-1cjc3uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248338/original/file-20181203-194953-1cjc3uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248338/original/file-20181203-194953-1cjc3uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248338/original/file-20181203-194953-1cjc3uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248338/original/file-20181203-194953-1cjc3uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rain garden, which absorbs rain and stores water to help control run-off from impervious hard surfaces, in Wellington, New Zealand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karine Dupré</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Urban infrastructure, therefore, can and should be planned and designed to provide <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11355-017-0346-6">multiple services</a>, including coastal resilience and healthier water streams and oceans. To achieve this, a neighbourhood or city-wide strategy needs to be implemented, instead of intermittent and ad hoc urban design solutions. Importantly, <a href="http://webpages.uidaho.edu/larc380/new380/assets/images/StormwaterFiles/images/HighPtSect.jpg">each element should coordinate with the others</a> to avoid overlaps, gaps and pitfalls. </p>
<p>This is what integrated urban design is about. So why don’t we implement it more often?</p>
<h2>Challenges and opportunities</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935117317115?via%3Dihub">Research has shown</a> that planning, designing and creating climate-resilient cities that are energy-optimised, revitalise urban landscapes and restore and support <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/natural-resources/ecosystem-services">ecosystem services</a> is a major challenge at the planning scale. To generate an urban environment that promotes urban protection and resilience while minimising urbanisation impacts and restoring natural systems, we need to better anticipate the risks and have the means to take actions. In other words, it is a two-way system: well planned and designed green and blue infrastructures not only deliver better urbanised areas but will also protect the ocean from pollution. Additionally, it helps to manage future risks of severe weather. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117305282?via%3Dihub">uncertainties of green infrastructure capacity and costs of maintenance, combined with inflexible finance schemes</a>, are obstacles to integrated urban solutions. Furthermore, the lack of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01426397.2017.1353069">inter- and transdisciplinary approaches</a> results in <a href="http://www.arj.no/2012/03/12/disciplinarities-2/">disciplinary barriers</a> in research and policymaking to long-term planning of the sort that generates urban green infrastructure and its desired outcomes.</p>
<p>On the bright side, there is also strong evidence to suggest sound policy can <a href="http://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1618866716305027?via%3Dihub">help overcome these barriers</a> through technical guides based on scientific research, standards and financial incentives. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-green-infrastructure-can-easily-be-added-to-the-urban-planning-toolkit-57277">Here’s how green infrastructure can easily be added to the urban planning toolkit</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1877343514001110">Collaborative partnerships</a> are promising, too. Partnerships between academia and industry tend to be more powerful than streamlined industry project developments. </p>
<p>Finally, and very promisingly, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935117316778?via%3Dihub">Australia has its own successful green infrastructure examples</a>. <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/community/parks-open-spaces/urban-forest/Pages/urban-forest-strategy.aspx">Melbourne’s urban forest strategy</a> has been <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935117316778?via%3Dihub">internationally acclaimed</a>. Examples like these provide valuable insights into local green infrastructure governance. </p>
<p>Cairns has stepped up with some stunning blue <a href="http://www.qldbeaches.com/cairns-esplanade.html">infrastructure on the Esplanade</a> which raises awareness of both locals and visitors about the protection of our oceans. </p>
<p>This is only the start. Together academics, local authorities, industry stakeholders and communities can lead the way to resilient cities and healthier oceans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249195/original/file-20181206-128208-ixjv4.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cairns Esplanade Lagoon helps raise awareness of the need to protect the ocean as the city grows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karine Dupré</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-green-is-our-infrastructure-helping-cities-assess-its-value-for-long-term-liveability-50528">How green is our infrastructure? Helping cities assess its value for long-term liveability</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Urbanisation is the main reason for rising temperatures and water pollution, but receives little attention in discussions about the health of water streams, reefs and oceans.Silvia Tavares, Lecturer in Urban Design, James Cook UniversityKarine Dupré, Associate Professor in Architecture, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1077892018-11-28T04:20:04Z2018-11-28T04:20:04ZSydney storms could be making the Queensland fires worse<p>A strong low-pressure system has meant severe thunderstorm and hail warnings are in effect for much of the New South Wales South Coast. At the same time, very dry conditions, strong winds and high temperatures are fuelling dozens of bushfires across Queensland.</p>
<p>The two events are actually influencing each other. As the low-pressure system moves over the Greater Sydney area, a connected wind change is pushing warm air (and stronger winds) to Queensland, worsening the fire conditions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-wind-and-heat-when-fire-seasons-start-earlier-and-last-longer-101663">Drought, wind and heat: when fire seasons start earlier and last longer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These lows over NSW are the kind we might see a couple of times a year – they’re not just regular weather systems, but neither are they massively out of the ordinary.</p>
<p>However, when combined with the current record-breaking heat in Queensland, the extra wind is creating exceptionally dangerous fire conditions. Queensland’s emergency services minister, Craig Crawford, has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-28/queensland-bushfires-deepwater-rules-beach-baffle-live-blog/10561514">warned</a> Queenslanders:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are expecting a firestorm. We are expecting it to be so severe that it won’t even be safe on the beach […] The only thing to do is to go now.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Conditions in Queensland</h2>
<p>At least 80 bushfires were burning in Queensland on Wednesday, with more than a dozen fire warnings issued to communities near the Deepwater blaze. Queensland Police Deputy Commissioner Bob Gee said that “people will burn to death” unless they evacuate the area. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1067567022236557312"}"></div></p>
<p>These fires have come during a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/2018/11/27/12/06/queensland-heatwave-records-smashed-fire-danger-health-risk">record-breaking heatwave</a>. On Tuesday Cooktown recorded 43.9°C, beating the previous November high set 70 years ago by more than two degrees. Cairns has broken its November heatwave record by <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_031011_All.shtml">five whole degrees</a>. </p>
<p>Grasslands and forests are very dry after very little rain over the past two years. Adding to these conditions are strong winds, which make the fires hotter, faster and harder to predict. This is where the storm conditions in NSW come in: they are affecting air movements across both states.</p>
<h2>NSW low is driving winds over Queensland</h2>
<p>A large low-pressure system, currently over the Hunter Valley area, is causing the NSW storms. As it moves, it’s pushing a mass of warm air ahead of it, bringing both higher temperatures and stronger winds across the Queensland border. </p>
<p>Once the low-pressure system moves across the Hunter area to the Tasman Sea east of Sydney, it will drag what we call a “wind change” across Queensland. This will increase wind speeds through Queensland and temperatures, making the fire situation even worse. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1067575858104127488"}"></div></p>
<p>This is why emergency services are keeping watch for “fire tornado” conditions. When very hot air from large fires rises rapidly into a turbulent atmosphere, it can create fire storms – thunderstorms containing lightning or burning embers. Strong wind changes can also mean fire tornadoes form, sucking up burning material. Both of these events spread fires quickly and unpredictably. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/turn-and-burn-the-strange-world-of-fire-tornadoes-11193">Turn and burn: the strange world of fire tornadoes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does this mean for the drought</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, it’s not likely the heavy rains over NSW will have a long-term effect on the drought gripping much of the state. While very heavy rains have fallen over 24 hours, the drought conditions have persisted for years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-australias-extreme-weather-103903">Trust Me, I'm An Expert: Australia's extreme weather</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The wet weather may bring some temporary relief, but NSW will need much more rain over a longer period to truly alleviate the drought. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the Bureau of Meteorology will be monitoring the Queensland situation closely. You can check weather warnings for your area on the bureau’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/?ref=ftr">website</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Yeo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bushfires across Queensland are fanned by high winds pushed north by a strong low in NSW.Claire Yeo, Supervising Meteorologist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048512018-10-21T19:17:54Z2018-10-21T19:17:54ZTurning ‘big brother’ surveillance into a helping hand to the homeless<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241170/original/file-20181018-41140-h4tf40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cairns has an extensive CCTV network, which as well as keeping homeless people under surveillance is sometimes used to help them.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/schoeband/1327913223/in/photolist-5vL2j6-dSoxsV-a7J3QM-7ZDGMB-32kUkz-a7LVVG-a7LVG5-a7J3LV-TPTjY">Andreina Schoeberlein/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Surveillance evokes fear of a “big brother” state watching our every move. The proliferation of closed-circuit television (CCTV) cameras in our cities and the emergence of big data have only deepened this fear. Marginalised groups such as people sleeping rough feel the impact most acutely, as their lack of shelter exposes them to constant surveillance. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042098018789057">recent research</a> investigated the role of surveillance in coordinating responses to <a href="https://www.qcoss.org.au/sites/default/files/H4G_Cairns_analysis.pdf">homelessness in Cairns</a>. Homelessness occurs here at twice the national rate. </p>
<p>For rough sleepers, being surveilled can result in unwanted questioning by police, being moved on, or even being arrested. We found, however, that surveillance was also used to coordinate genuinely supportive responses by local social services.</p>
<p><a href="https://ojs.library.queensu.ca/index.php/surveillance-and-society/article/view/3425">Researchers have linked</a> surveillance of the homeless to efforts by public and other agencies to ensure city centres are attractive spaces for consumers, tourists and private investors. We found surveillance in Cairns is largely directed at reducing the impact of homelessness on the city’s image. This can result in people who are homeless being excluded from safe and familiar areas where they have ready access to support.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/anti.12001">other researchers point out</a> that responses to homelessness are diverse and multifaceted. Genuine attempts to help the homeless often exist alongside exclusionary practices. Despite this, little research has been done on how surveillance practices may interface with these more supportive initiatives. </p>
<p>We argue that the exclusionary effects of surveillance on the homeless are not a <em>fait accompli</em>. It is important to challenge these negative effects and to harness the potential for surveillance to contribute to social justice. </p>
<h2>A tool to manage ‘antisocial behaviour’</h2>
<p>Driven by concerns about the fragility of Cairns’ tourism-dependent economy, surveillance is indeed used to manage and clear public spaces of people seen as disrupting the city’s image as safe and inviting. People who are homeless are disproportionately surveilled. </p>
<p>Public debate on homelessness in Cairns often centres on “antisocial behaviour” by so-called “itinerant” Indigenous people from remote communities who sleep rough in the city. Local media, politicians and business owners <a href="http://www.cairnspost.com.au/business/call-to-shift-cairns-charity-food-van-because-of-appalling-drunks/news-story/c5e28fadbb8b721920ccd0260c0b78b8">publicly lament</a> the impact on local commerce and efforts to promote Cairns as a welcoming place for visitors. </p>
<p>Acting on these concerns, local police, council and social service personnel work together to <a href="http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/cairns-police-itinerant-operation-continues-to-kick-goals/news-story/a2b9976fba96b77dc75c2411b04f01a1">manage the behaviour</a> of people sleeping rough. They do this either through enforcement – move-ons, seizing alcohol, arrest, and so one – or through efforts to remove the homeless from public view, such as taking them to the police watch house or local sobering-up facility. </p>
<p>Surveillance plays a key role in coordinating these activities. Information on the location and behaviour of homeless people is gleaned from <a href="https://www.cairns.qld.gov.au/community-environment/community-services/safety/cctv">council-operated CCTV cameras</a> and foot patrols and passed on to police and other agencies. </p>
<h2>Help with access to services and resources</h2>
<p>Yet homelessness in Cairns is not only seen as a problem of antisocial behaviour. Community activists and social services <a href="https://www.qcoss.org.au/sites/default/files/20161803_ELC%20Cairns%20site%20analysis.pdf">highlight the social and economic forces driving homelessness</a>. These range from unaffordable housing and barriers to accessing mainstream health and welfare services, to racism and the ongoing legacy of colonisation. </p>
<p>Indeed, even <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/cairns-councillor-calls-for-holistic-response-to-itinerant-issue/news-story/808a1cb1e63f3296cb6d963c000e0be8">local politicians</a> and council staff acknowledge that responses that move people on do not resolve the issues underlying their homelessness, which call for different approaches. </p>
<p>Reflecting these alternative views, Cairns has some important programs that help people overcome the practical, institutional and socio-economic barriers to exiting homelessness. For instance, the Cairns <a href="https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/servicedirectory/191-housing-homelessness/going-places-street-to-home-homeless-program">Street to Home</a> program helps rough sleepers get into permanent housing. It also provides them with health care and (re)connects them to mainstream health and welfare institutions.</p>
<p>Importantly, these initiatives are supported by the same surveillance practices that coordinate the more disciplinary and exclusionary responses. </p>
<p>CCTV camera operators provide the location of rough sleepers to outreach workers seeking to engage new clients and support existing ones. The council also uses its surveillance capacities to help service providers locate rough sleepers who have no fixed address and often no phone in urgent situations, such as when they have a limited time to accept a social housing offer or are overdue for psychiatric medications. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241179/original/file-20181018-41147-kb4r44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Surveillance is typically used to monitor ‘antisocial’ behaviour in public places but could just as easily be used to identify people in need of help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cctv-security-room-1047388429?src=fGFdv2-lM7CohNJQnywhhQ-1-17">tsyklon/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Using surveillance for progressive ends</h2>
<p>Our research shows that, as well as contributing to the policing and displacement of homelessness, surveillance can help overcome barriers that people face to accessing the resources they need to end their homelessness. This suggests that while surveillance comes with inherent dangers, such as the exclusion of marginalised groups, these are not necessary or essential functions. </p>
<p>Australian cities have invested extensive public resources in surveillance infrastructure. Greater effort should be made to harness these public assets to achieve positive social outcomes, such as enabling people who are homeless to find housing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Clarke received funding from the Queensland Department of Housing and Public Works for the research presented in this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Parsell receives funding from The Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Surveillance often results in people who are homeless being the target of enforcement measures. But a new study in Cairns shows surveillance can also be used to achieve more positive social outcomes.Andrew Clarke, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Social Science, The University of QueenslandCameron Parsell, Associate Professor, School of Social Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/868472017-11-14T19:15:49Z2017-11-14T19:15:49ZAdani aside, North Queensland voters care about crime and cost of living<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194301/original/file-20171113-27632-15wg1hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5311%2C2784&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pauline Hanson's One Nation will contest ten of 12 northern electorates.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The controversial Adani mine has dominated national debate around the Queensland election, but voters in the state’s far-north are also concerned with crime and cost-of-living pressures, energy, and water security. </p>
<p>These aren’t the only issues that concern voters, but they are prevalent because they reflect the expectations that minor party preferences will determine the election outcome.</p>
<hr>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-one-nation-on-the-march-a-change-to-compulsory-voting-might-backfire-on-labor-86923">With One Nation on the march, a change to compulsory voting might backfire on Labor</a>
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<p>One Nation will contest ten of 12 northern electorates, while Katter’s Australian Party and the Greens will contest six and 11 respectively. One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party have cut a preference deal to increase their combined influence in anticipation of a hung parliament.</p>
<p>The minor parties are unlikely to win more than one additional seat in the north despite the vulnerability of several Labor and LNP-held electorates. In fact, One Nation is polling better in southern and central Queensland than it is in the north, according to the most recent <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2017/queensland-election-2017-galaxy-poll-upsets-in-critical-seats/news-story/48731f0d61ab7ecb58f0065f3b7abd46">Galaxy poll</a>. </p>
<p>But picking up seats isn’t the only goal. Minor parties will want to influence the policies of the major parties, and they’ll want to speak to voters throughout Queensland about their policies for the north.</p>
<h2>Managing crocs</h2>
<p>Whether or not people agree with the Katter’s Australian Party’s plan to cull crocodiles, the need to take crocodile management more seriously resonates across north Queensland. </p>
<p>Despite assurances <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-31/crocodile-cull-ruled-out-by-qld-government-daintree-attack/7463722">croc populations are steady</a>, many believe the number and size of crocs found in residential and recreational areas <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/surf-life-saving-queensland-boss-says-swimmers-not-safe-from-crocodile-attack/news-story/2c08733c8984baeb31875eca3671deb3">presents an unacceptable risk</a>.</p>
<p>At least <a href="https://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/wildlife/livingwith/pdf/crocodile-attacks-queensland.pdf">two people have been killed by crocodiles</a> in Queensland in the last 12 months and two patrolled beaches in Cairns have been <a href="http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/beach-closed-after-crocodile-filmed-swimming-inside-palm-cove-stinger-net/news-story/ea378d317c5850fe98dcc1a7c721cc3e">closed to swimmers</a> in just the last fortnight. </p>
<p>Concern about croc management plays into a broader distrust of Brisbane-based governments seen to misunderstand and neglect the north in their chase for southern votes - the sort of distrust the minor parties will hope to exploit. </p>
<h2>Crime in North Queensland</h2>
<p>Across the north, the LNP is going “<a href="https://www.betterqueensland.org.au/nq-crime-action-plan">tough on crime</a>” but nowhere are they going tougher than in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/town/">Townsville</a>, with a promised youth curfew in addition to the extra police resources and legislative changes promised more generally. </p>
<p>There is a genuinely high level of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-13/townsville-police-vigilante-warning-youth-crime-rates-soar/8115002">public anxiety</a> over recent spikes in criminal activity.</p>
<p>And it is true crime is higher in the north than it is elsewhere. Offence rates for <a href="https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/">crimes against the person</a> in the Far North Queensland police district are more than double the Queensland average, and they are over twice as high again in the Mt Isa district which covers west and north west Queensland. Similar patterns are evident for <a href="https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/">public nuisance offences</a>.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/">property crime</a> rates in the far and northwest are closer to the state average. And offence rates for all crimes are closer to the state average in the <a href="https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/">Townsville police district</a>. </p>
<p>Localised and short-term spikes in the crime rate should not be dismissed but Indigenous community leaders such as <a href="http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/one-place-all-politicians-have-ignored-palm-island/news-story/52cff7382f332225f2434f29e1ac069f">Palm Island Mayor Alf Lacey</a> feel major parties are ignoring more pressing areas of need.</p>
<h2>Northern development</h2>
<p>North Queenslanders are well used to hyperbolic promises of development. The key election issues here though are local infrastructure needs, business opportunities and jobs. </p>
<p><a href="http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_SAFOUR/QLD_LFR_LM_byLFR_UnemploymentRate">Unemployment</a> in Cairns is close to the state and national average on 5.6%, but it jumps to 9.6% in Townsville and thence 30-60% in several smaller, predominately Indigenous, communities. </p>
<p>Labor’s <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20275/alpq-queensland-made-policy-document-final-pdf-002.pdf">Queensland First</a> strategy may sound like a populist appeal to potential One Nation voters. Among other things, the <a href="http://www.hpw.qld.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/QLDProcurementPolicy.pdf">strategy</a> prioritises the use of suppliers able to use local labour, allows consideration of non-economic values in tender evaluation, and sets a minimum target of 3% of expenditure to be directed through Indigenous businesses.</p>
<p>Reforming procurement processes to ensure government expenditure on roads, schools and other much-needed infrastructure provides opportunities for local business participation, employment and skills development will be popular and so a broadly similar policy has been taken up by the <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/lnps-answer-to-labors-buy-queensland-policy/news-story/65656259da779eae5359fbdaede6f5fd">LNP opposition</a>.</p>
<h2>Water and energy security</h2>
<p>All major urban and agricultural water supplies in north Queensland are at, or close, to capacity. <a href="https://www.townsville.qld.gov.au/water-waste-and-environment/water-supply-and-dams/dam-levels">Townsville</a>, for example, has been on level three water restrictions since August last year and, with storage levels dropping to 15%, is about to start pumping water from further south. </p>
<p>Five major water security projects currently proposed for north Queensland are likely to be approved regardless of who wins office. The LNP wants to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-03/queensland-election-lnp-to-get-new-queensland-dams-built/9113656">establish a Queensland Dam Company</a> to avoid excessive delays while Labor says it has already committed resources <a href="https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/premier-accuses-tim-nicholls-stealing-labors-dam-p/3256322/">to the relevant projects</a>. </p>
<p>As for energy, about <a href="http://www.advancecairns.com/files/media/original/0c4/cb3/075/renewable-energy-solutions-in-tnq.pdf">90% of electricity consumed</a> in the north is imported from central Queensland. On a cyclone prone coastline there is a clear vulnerability here and public concern about costs is also high. But <a href="http://www.advancecairns.com/files/media/original/0c4/cb3/075/renewable-energy-solutions-in-tnq.pdf">considerable investment in renewable projects</a> in the region calls into question the need for (or electoral appeal of) a new coal-fired plant.</p>
<h2>Who or what is missing in this election?</h2>
<p>The electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/cook/">Cook</a> highlights issues that deserve more prominence in this election. It’s a diverse seat that takes in the Torres Strait, Cape York, Wet Tropics and parts of the Tablelands, and all parties are putting up candidates. </p>
<p>And it’s possibly the only electorate in Queensland where all candidates are openly pursuing Indigenous voters with promises of economic development and empowerment. </p>
<p>At the state level, however, the parties are largely keeping their views on issues of concern to Indigenous Queenslanders to themselves. </p>
<p>Labor’s policy manifesto promises to establish a <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20088/alp_state_platform_2017_02.pdf">Treaty Working Group</a> to consider appropriate processes and timelines for negotiating treaties between the state and First Nation peoples. This is a substantial policy reform. Yet it has received no significant attention during the campaign. </p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party policy documents promote <a href="https://www.ausparty.org.au/page/attachment/51/20170830_kap-policy-document">Indigenous economic development</a> but, again, there is little evidence these have received any campaign attention. </p>
<p>Similarly, a 13% rise in breaches of <a href="https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/farnorth/2017/10/13/annual-statistical-review-201617-far-north-district/">Domestic and Family Violence Protection Orders</a> between 2015-16 and 2016-17 in far north Queensland suggests the safety of women and children ought to be an election issue. The policy platforms released by both <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20088/alp_state_platform_2017_02.pdf">Labor</a> and the <a href="https://www.betterqueensland.org.au/protecting-domestic-violence-victims">LNP</a> emphasise their records on responding to domestic violence but we have not seen these debated in the north.</p>
<p>Why are these issues receiving comparatively little attention? Part of the explanation is demographic.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?apps/RegionSummary/index.html&region=318021485&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&regionASGS=REGION">average Mundingburra voter</a>, for example, is Australian-born and aged between 40 and 59. Their offspring, the 17-21 are the second-largest demographic, and tend to vote the same way as their parents. It is <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/one-nation-voters-as-likely-to-have-deserted-labor-as-the-coalition-20170227-gumkjg.html">typical One Nation voter land</a>, and is the kind of electorate in which Labor is in trouble.</p>
<p>Whoever wins the 2017 Queensland election will get there on minor party preferences, and they are likely to need the support of minor parties in the house. The irony here is that the instability of minority government, if that is where we end up, will feed the disillusionment among north Queensland voters that minor parties draw on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Lockie receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Mission Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxine Newlands does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Major voter concerns for North Queensland reflect the expectations that minor party preferences will determine the election outcome.Stewart Lockie, Director, The Cairns Institute, James Cook UniversityMaxine Newlands, Lecturer in Political Science and Journalism, Researcher in Environmental Politics, Research Fellow at the Cairns Institute, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/600462016-06-13T20:13:10Z2016-06-13T20:13:10ZState of the states: 19 reasons why Turnbull and Shorten keep flying to Queensland<p><em>Ahead of polling day on July 2, our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">State of the states series</a> takes stock of the key issues, seats and policies affecting the vote in each of Australia’s states and territories. We begin today with a look at <a href="http://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-new-south-wales-and-the-issues-resounding-in-bellwether-seats-60050">New South Wales</a> and Queensland.</em></p>
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<p>There are 19 good reasons why Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have been spending so much time in Queensland. To win government, Labor needs a net gain of <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-labor-needs-19-seats-to-make-history-20160507-gop196">19 seats nationally</a> – and that’s the exact number of marginal seats being fought over in Queensland this election.</p>
<p>Stretching from far north and central Queensland to a cluster in the state’s south-east, there are 12 federal seats with <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/03/2016-federal-election-pendulum-update.html">margins of less than 5%</a>, and seven more on margins of less than 8%, which in a Queensland context can be considered marginal. Of those dozen most marginal seats, the Liberal National Party and Labor each have the edge in five, though the LNP is likely to take back Clive Palmer’s seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/fair/">Fairfax</a>. Bob Katter holds the other in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/kenn/">Kennedy</a>. </p>
<p>Our team at Griffith University chose ten of those key Queensland seats to watch closely and we have developed <a href="http://public.tableau.com/profile/sian.robinson#!/vizhome/AustralianFederalElection2016Tabs_0/Findyourelectorate">interactive profiles</a> of each one, drawing on Australian Bureau of Statistics population, income, housing and education data. </p>
<h2>Key issues and seats in regional Queensland</h2>
<p>Queensland is Australia’s most decentralised state, and the only state or territory where roughly half of its population of 4.7 million <a href="http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/pop-growth-highlights-trends-reg-qld/pop-growth-highlights-trends-reg-qld-2015.pdf">lives outside the capital</a>.</p>
<p>To understand why some election promises matter more than others in Queensland – from a now bipartisan pledge to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-13/coalition-to-match-labor-funding-promise-for-townsville-stadium/7504276">build Townsville a new stadium</a>, to spending more on the Great Barrier Reef – you need to look at the demographics of marginal seats, as <a href="http://public.tableau.com/profile/sian.robinson#!/vizhome/AustralianFederalElection2016Tabs_0/Findyourelectorate">we have done</a>.</p>
<p>Take jobs and growth. Turnbull’s much-vaunted “economic plan” aims to transition Australia from the mining boom to the new “innovation economy”. But that means quite different things to voters in the north and west of the state, where unemployment is above the state average of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features2Apr%202016?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=Apr%202016&num=&view=">6.2%</a>.</p>
<p>The state’s unemployment highest rate, almost 12%, is in Townsville, which is in the north Queensland electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/herb/">Herbert</a>, held by the Coalition’s Ewen Jones on a 6.2% margin. There, the closure of Queensland Nickel has compounded the mining downturn. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126243/original/image-20160613-29205-1jb0cg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Queensland’s regional unemployment rates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_SAFOUR/QLD_LFR_LM_byLFR_UnemploymentRate">Department of Employment, Australian Government</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Add to that the “double whammy” of negative equity in houses and investment properties bought at the peak of the boom. Those factors can also be expected to impact other Coalition seats: <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/daws/">Dawson</a>, which lies south of Herbert and includes the city of Mackay; <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/hink/">Hinkler</a>, which takes in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay; and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/leic/">Leichhardt</a>, a seat more than twice the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/D1C2967E40D51C1DCA2573C5000D9EC3?opendocument">size of Tasmania</a>, sprawling from Cairns north to the Torres Strait Islands.</p>
<p>Both leaders and their respective frontbenchers have made <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-head-north-in-battle-for-queensland/news-story/1fccc9e86f00b23487a0135279393763">frequent visits</a> to regional Queensland, particularly seats like <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/capr/">Capricornia</a>, which the LNP’s Michelle Landry holds by 0.8%. Again proving the power of incumbency, Capricornia, Dawson, Herbert and Leichhardt have all benefited from what the Australian Financial Review has dubbed “<a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-the-coalitions-17-billion-pork-barrel-strategy-20160605-gpby49">the Coalition’s $1.7 billion pork barrel strategy</a>”.</p>
<p>On Monday, after <a href="http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/coalition-pressured-as-stadium-support-builds/news-story/e345abef69b630b519a6d39b068ca5b1">months of local campaigning</a>, Turnbull <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/100m-for-a-local-stadium-thats-not-pork-barrelling-thats-a-bold-vision-says-pm-20160613-gphs1k.html">promised $100 million</a> towards a multi-purpose stadium in Townsville. That matched a <a href="http://www.billshorten.com.au/labor-will-deliver-a-new-townsville-stadium">Labor pledge</a> from last year. </p>
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<p>Turnbull used the same trip to announce a new <a href="http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/the-liberal-government-is-announcing-1-billion-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef/news-story/04a6e8c820291e74033c35a3b105678a?nk=5ccf14ef1fcd83b6bfe4a2862a38a2fe-1465788715">$1 billion Reef Fund</a> to be spent over the next decade, in contrast to Shorten’s earlier campaign pledge of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-labor-pledges-380-million-for-great-barrier-reef-20160529-gp6mmj.html">$500 million</a> over five years for additional reef funding and research. The Great Barrier Reef is a hot topic statewide for voters concerned about the environment and climate change. But in these northern seats, protecting the reef is also about protecting tourism jobs.</p>
<p>Regional Queensland is at the heart of another issue that has been simmering for months, and which is sure to raised again in today’s <a href="http://www.budget.qld.gov.au/">state budget</a>: disaster relief and recovery.</p>
<p>In 2015, much of Queensland felt the brunt of Tropical Cyclones Marcia and Nathan, especially the electorates of Hinkler, Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn, Wide Bay, Herbert and Leichhardt. But it emerged recently that the federal government has “withheld” <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/trad-calls-on-turnbull-to-stop-politics-over-disaster-funds-20160601-gp8xcm.html">$1.1 billion in reimbursement</a> funding owed to Queensland under the National Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements. </p>
<p>This issue could gain greater national attention as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-06/wild-weather-lashes-the-east-coast-of-australia/7479978">Queensland, NSW and Tasmania all assess the damage</a> from the east coast low and flooding that claimed <a href="http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/five-dead-and-more-missing-in-tamanian-floods-as-cleanup-continues-in-nsw/news-story/fae9c101007690f16214c15eeed3b20a">five lives</a>.</p>
<h2>Key issues and seats in south-east Queensland</h2>
<p>In south-east Queensland, which is home to seven out of ten Queenslanders, jobs are also a concern. But it’s a story of stark contrasts.</p>
<p>Unemployment runs as high as 11% in Ipswich (part of retiring Labor member Bernie Ripoll’s electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/oxle/">Oxley</a>) to a low of 3.1% in north Brisbane, and between 4.5-6% to the south and west of the city. In these electorates, cost of living looms among the most significant issues. Labor in particular has focused on costs of childcare, public school funding, and the government’s decision to freeze the Medicare rebate for another three years.</p>
<p>One of the most interesting electorates to watch on election night will be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/dick/">Dickson</a>, in Brisbane’s outer north, which Immigration Minister Peter Dutton holds on a margin of 6.7%. </p>
<p>Dutton wrested the seat from Cheryl Kernot in 2001, but this time he is being challenged by Labor’s Linda Lavarch, a former Queensland attorney-general. Lavarch’s ex-husband and former Keating government attorney-general Michael Lavarch held the seat from 1993-96. A national social media campaign is being waged to “ditch Dutton” by the <a href="https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/federal-election/ditch-dutton-fundraiser/time-to-ditch-dutton">activist group GetUp!</a>; by June 10, it had reportedly <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/dutton-vs-getup?utm_term=.oaQzE8wVx#.hklNkev2W">crowd-funded $190,000</a>.</p>
<p>On asylum-seekers and border security, as with managing the economy, the Coalition maintains a decisive edge with voters. This may explain why Dutton went <a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-a-menace-to-multicultural-australia-59618">so hard</a>, so early, on refugees in the opening weeks of the campaign. But Dutton’s comments may yet backfire on his leader in the inner-urban electorates of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/grif/">Griffith</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/bris/">Brisbane</a>, which the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-12/vote-compass-right-left-leaning-electorates/7501092">ABC’s Vote Compass</a> shows are Queensland’s two most left-leaning seats.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/bris/">Brisbane</a>, Teresa Gambaro’s belated decision not to re-contest the marginal inner-northern seat left the LNP scrambling to find a candidate to challenge Labor’s Pat O'Neill. O'Neill, a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-labors-pat-oneill-tears-down-army-billboards/news-story/db4cc48d880d483de8f5727110e85bf9">former Army officer</a>, has been campaigning since he was preselected in June 2015.</p>
<p>The LNP’s Trevor Evans was endorsed in April 2016. Much has been made of the contest between <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/trevor-evans-wins-brisbane-lnp-preselection-setting-up-historic-election-20160414-go6pzh.html">two “openly gay” major party candidates</a>. But it remains unclear whether economic or social issues will be of more concern to Brisbane voters. Expect the Greens’ candidate <a href="http://greens.org.au/candidate/brisbane">Kirsten Lovejoy</a> to have an impact, even more so as a result of the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-labor-to-preference-votes-to-the-greens-20160612-gphhk1.html">Labor/Greens preference</a> deal. </p>
<h2>Why Queensland is always a state to watch</h2>
<p>Historically, Queenslanders have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/preview-qld/">favoured conservative</a> or Coalition governments – making it fashionable for some on the left to describe it as a “<a href="http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/49262/79788_1.pdf?sequence=1">conservative backwater</a>”. But when it comes to politics, the more accurate adjective is “volatile”. </p>
<p>Queensland voters tend to swing harder than elsewhere, which has proved as decisive in turfing out recent Coalition governments as it has in rejecting Labor.</p>
<p>In 1996, Queenslanders were “<a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/wayne-goss-a-shy-premier-who-brought-forth-the-sunshine-20141110-11jsdr.html">waiting on their verandahs with baseball bats</a>” to oust Paul Keating’s Labor government, helping John Howard’s Coalition win all but two Queensland seats. </p>
<p>But in 2007, Queenslanders swung more dramatically against Howard’s government than any other state (7.53% to Labor) to elect “Kevin from Queensland”. Labor won seats in the Coalition heartland in the north (Dawson and Leichhardt), as well as central Queensland (Flynn), and around the outer Brisbane mortgage belt in Forde, Longman, Moreton, and Petrie.</p>
<p>In 2010, Queensland voters repudiated Julia Gillard and played a major role in driving Labor into minority government after just one term: 9 of 18 seats Labor lost in that election were in Queensland.</p>
<p>At the last federal election in 2013, Queensland turned decisively to Tony Abbott. Labor achieved a primary vote of 29.8%, winning <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/preview-qld/">just six out of 30 lower house seats</a>.</p>
<p>Then, almost as if to prove how volatile Queensland politics can be, came <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">last year’s state election</a>, in which the LNP went from winning a record majority in 2012 to losing power.</p>
<p>Whether Queensland’s unpredictable behaviour at the ballot box will be repeated on July 2 remains to be seen. With two-and-a-half weeks of campaigning to go, there doesn’t appear to be the kind of mood for change that usually accompanies big swings in Queensland. And Labor’s low base in Queensland, plus the slight margins held in traditionally Labor electorates like <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/lill/">Lilley</a> (1.3%) and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/more/">Moreton</a> (1.6%), makes it an uphill battle.</p>
<p>There is also a developing consensus that the national swings reported in published opinion polls are not translating to the <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/labor-behind-in-key-seats-needed-to-win-20160610-gpgcx4.html">seats that matter</a>. This, and historical experience, may explain why the Coalition looks less anxious in Queensland than some might have anticipated.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Catch up on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">others in this series</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Correction: Michael Lavarch held the seat of Dickson from 1993-96, rather than the neighbouring seat of Petrie as originally stated. Thank you to reader Peter Kington for pointing out the error.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has in the past received funding from the Australian Research Council and from the Australian and New Zealand School of Government.</span></em></p>To win government, Labor needs a net gain of 19 seats nationally – and that’s the exact number of marginal seats being fought over in Queensland this election.Anne Tiernan, Professor, School of Government and International Relations; Director, Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/572822016-04-06T20:13:31Z2016-04-06T20:13:31ZCoral Bleaching Taskforce: more than 1,000 km of the Great Barrier Reef has bleached<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117556/original/image-20160405-29002-1xxohfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Professor Morgan Pratchett surveys bleached corals on Australia's GBR.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cassy Thompson, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of Australia’s most important natural assets, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), is being affected by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-event-what-happens-next-56664">worst ever bleaching in its history</a>, amid warmer than average water temperatures associated with this summer’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-and-rise-of-the-2015-el-nino-41616">major El Niño event</a> and against a background trend of <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-summers-sea-temperatures-were-the-hottest-on-record-for-australia-heres-why-56906">ongoing ocean warming</a>. </p>
<p>With extensive coral bleaching having been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-08/mass-coral-bleaching-predicted-to-occur-in-2016/6838580">predicted</a> as far back as October last year, Terry Hughes at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies convened the <a href="http://www.aims.gov.au/documents/30301/2109302/JCU+Media_National+Coral+Bleaching+Taskforce+keeping+a+close+watch+on+the+Reef-low.pdf/d55d0a6a-7c16-4760-9ca2-0343e370f1b1">National Coral Bleaching Taskforce</a> to document the bleaching, both from the air and at close quarters. </p>
<p>With our survey work still ongoing, a bleak picture is emerging: more than 1,000 km of the Great Barrier Reef shows signs of significant bleaching. In the worst-affected areas, in the GBR’s previously pristine far north, many corals are now expected to die.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117633/original/image-20160406-28945-1yd9tte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bleaching, such as on this anemone, is worst in the Great Barrier Reef’s remote north.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CoralWatch.org</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Warning signs</h2>
<p>At the start of southern summer it was predicted that bleaching would be largely restricted to central and southern parts of the GBR. As it turns out, the first indications of a problem came from scientists working at Lizard Island, in the reef’s remote north. In January, Jodie Rummer of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies was studying fish near the island when she noticed that many of the hard corals, soft corals and even clams were starting to bleach. </p>
<p>Shortly thereafter, staff from the <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/">Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority</a>, undertaking routine surveys in the northern GBR, <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/media-room/latest-news/coral-bleaching/2016/coral-mortality-rises-in-remote-far-north">reported</a> that not only were many of the corals bleached on reefs near Cooktown, but some of the corals had already started dying.</p>
<p>The full extent and severity of the bleaching in the northern GBR became apparent when our colleague Terry Hughes led a team on a series of aerial surveys, similar to those carried out during the 1998 and 2002 GBR bleaching events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117634/original/image-20160406-29006-bxw3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was expected that these surveys would show that bleaching was restricted to the reefs at and around Lizard Island. But detailed aerial assessments of bleaching severity at 500 reefs have instead shown that 95% of reefs stretching between Cairns and Papua New Guinea have experienced significant coral bleaching. Only four reefs showed no evidence of bleaching.</p>
<h2>How do the surveys work?</h2>
<p>During aerial surveys, each reef is given a score from 0, indicating no bleaching, to 4, indicating that more than 60% of the corals are bleached. Comparing the results of the latest aerial surveys to those from previous bleaching episodes, it is clear that this bleaching event is far worse. </p>
<p>In 1998 and 2002, fewer than 200 reefs were assigned to the highest bleaching categories (3 or 4), compared with 450 already this year. Moreover, aerial surveys are now continuing on reefs south of Cairns, where bleaching is also being reported.</p>
<p>Extensive aerial surveys are being complemented by in-water surveys by coral biologists. By getting in the water, scientists are better able to ascertain the severity of the bleaching, establish which types of corals have been worst affected, and make predictions about what proportion of the bleached corals are likely to die. The trade-off is that they cannot cover as many locations as an aerial survey.</p>
<p>In places where both aerial and in-water surveys have been conducted, the results match very closely. Near Port Douglas, for example, where aerial surveys revealed many reefs had a score of 4 (greater than 60% bleaching), divers have confirmed that at least 75% of the corals on the shallow reef top are bleached. Similarly, reefs in this region that scored only 2 or 3 from the air show corresponding levels of bleaching in in-water surveys.</p>
<h2>The overall pattern</h2>
<p>While bleaching surveys are ongoing, a distinct pattern is emerging, whereby the severity of bleaching declines from north to south. Virtually all of the reefs in the GBR’s remote far northern section have been hit very hard. Here, virtually all of the corals, including normally very robust types, are bleached. </p>
<p>Given the severity of the bleaching, we expect that many of the corals in this region will die. This is concerning, given that the GBR’s north was considered “most pristine” in the latest <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/managing-the-reef/great-barrier-reef-outlook-report">Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117632/original/image-20160406-28945-hxszs0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bleached coral near Port Douglas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cassandra Thompson/ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Between Cooktown and Cairns – an area of the reef that is particularly important for tourism – the bleaching is much more variable. There are certainly some reefs where up to 90% of the corals are bleached and death rates are expected to be very high. But the extent of bleaching at other nearby reefs is much more moderate, enabling tourists to visit reefs that are still in good condition.</p>
<p>Further south, the extent of bleaching is even more variable and generally less severe. Ironically, the weather disturbance that persisted from Tropical Cyclone Winston, which <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/29/cyclone-winston-forces-thousands-fijians-out-of-homes">devastated Fiji in February</a>, helped to cool surface waters over the central and southern GBR, reducing the heat stress suffered by these corals. </p>
<p>Work is continuing to establish the southernmost extent of significant bleaching, but it is clear that a very large stretch (more than 1,000 km) of the GBR has been affected.</p>
<p>While the full extent of the bleaching, as well as the social, ecological and economic impacts, are yet to become apparent, this is undoubtedly the worst known bleaching event on the GBR. The National Coral Bleaching Taskforce will continue to coordinate research throughout 2016 to get a more complete picture of the severity and consequences of this event. The Taskforce is also currently monitoring thermal conditions on Western Australian reefs, which are now at their most critical time for bleaching to occur.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57282/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bleaching has hit a huge swathe of the Great Barrier Reef, with many corals in the reef’s remote northern reaches now expected to die as a result of warm waters linked to this summer’s El Niño.Morgan Pratchett, Professor, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityJanice Lough, Senior Principal Research Scientist, Australian Institute of Marine ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/302532014-09-04T20:08:58Z2014-09-04T20:08:58ZThis time is different? The local costs of Cairns’ new casino<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57365/original/tb9632yj-1409031061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The proposed Aquis casino in Cairns is likely to be underwritten by the poker machine losses of local residents.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Aquis Great Barrier Reef</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The proposed Aquis casino resort in Cairns is edging ever closer to regulatory approval. The development is <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/tony-fung8217s-aquis-great-barrier-reef-resort-a-step-closer-after-newman-government-gives-it-a-streamlined-approval-process/story-fnihsrf2-1226689811688">touted</a> by proponents as a “man-made wonder of the world” and will cost billions to develop. The Queensland government is <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/tony-fung-cleared-to-buy-cairns-casino/story-e6frg8zx-1227032049333">reportedly pushing</a> for it in order to bring gamblers to Cairns in the hope that the dollars they leave behind will stimulate the region’s economy. </p>
<p>According to the proposal’s boosters, the casino is aimed squarely at the Chinese market. The developers <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/tony-fung8217s-aquis-great-barrier-reef-resort-a-step-closer-after-newman-government-gives-it-a-streamlined-approval-process/story-fnihsrf2-1226689811688?nk=4c51facbc7cb8e30cfc3060ef17f2903">claim</a> that it will attract not only:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the Chinese mass-market middle class, but also the big-spending, high-value, ever-expanding Chinese upper class.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Those with long memories or a familiarity with the history of casino development in Australia have heard this story before. From Hobart to Darwin, casinos have been justified with hopes of attracting lucrative international tourists and gamblers, particularly from Asia. </p>
<p>Yet such hopes have rarely been realised. Australian casinos sooner or later <a href="https://theconversation.com/packers-barangaroo-casino-and-the-inevitability-of-pokies-15892">become dependent</a> on the “local” pokies market – except for the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-31/casino-canberra-cuts-stuff-and-operating-hours/5059896">barely profitable Canberra Casino</a>, from which pokies have been banned.</p>
<p>Even Melbourne’s Crown Casino, often recognised as the benchmark for an Australian casino that successfully attracts international high-rollers, is highly dependent on poker-machine revenue. A careful reading of the Productivity Commission’s <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/gambling-2009/report">estimates</a> and Crown’s <a href="http://www.crownresorts.com.au/investors-media/annual-reports">annual reports</a> shows that pokies are more important to Crown Melbourne’s bottom line than high-rollers. Profits from pokies amounted to an estimated A$376 million in 2008-09 compared to $330 million from high-rollers. </p>
<p>Outstripping both these categories is what Crown refers to as “local gaming”: $479 million in profit is taken from gamblers playing table games on the main gaming floor.</p>
<h2>This time is different?</h2>
<p>Yet with each new casino proposal, we are told that this time will be different. We went looking for evidence that the proposed Aquis casino in Cairns will attract the Asian high-rollers.</p>
<p>While Aquis has produced a 4000-page environmental and social impact statement, it has remained tight-lipped about what gambling facilities will actually be built. However, more details have been disclosed to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). The ACCC <a href="http://www.webcitation.org/6RrCT9AHs">notes</a> that the casino will offer 1500 poker machines but only 750 gaming tables. This configuration of gambling products reveals an intention to target Cairns locals. </p>
<p>Chinese gamblers rarely play the pokies. The <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?id=jTHhAQAAQBAJ&pg=PA92&lpg=PA28">“market cultivation” efforts</a> by operators in Macau to create demand for poker machines have thus far been a dismal failure. According to the <a href="http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat/2014/content.html">latest figures</a>, poker-machine gambling accounted for just 4% of gambling expenditure in Macau’s casinos.</p>
<p>Casino operators in Macau actually reduced the number of pokies they offer by over 20% between 2012 and 2014. The pokies in the Aquis casino will overwhelmingly be used by locals.</p>
<p>Putting an additional 1500 pokies in Cairns is likely to extract a staggering amount of economic resources out of the community, even when adjusting for pokie losses forgone at other pubs and clubs. Our <a href="http://criticalgamblingresearch.org/Markham_Young_Aquis_Submission.pdf">modelling</a> suggests that, on average, each adult resident in Cairns will spend an extra $240 per year on pokies, or, as a city, more than $56 million per year by 2021. </p>
<p>These do not represent the total estimated revenue generated by Aquis pokies, but the <em>extra</em> dollars that Cairns residents are likely to lose, in addition to the average $660 per year that they already spend on pokies in existing pubs and clubs.</p>
<p>More worrying still is the way these averages hide the unequal distribution of poker-machine losses in the community. According to our estimates, based on an analysis of surveys of gamblers in Queensland by the <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/95707/24-appendixb.pdf">Productivity Commission</a>, $22 million of the annual $56 million extra losses will come from just 950 problem gamblers. Around 3000 so-called “moderate risk” gamblers will lose a further $12 million per year. </p>
<p>In contrast, those who don’t report any harm from gambling will lose only $16 million. A further $8 million will be lost by those who report only one or two signs of gambling problems.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57619/original/stqsnzw9-1409207855.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Authors</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Pokies across the country <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-wins-from-big-gambling-in-australia-22930">disproportionately target</a> the poorest people in Australia. Will this time be different? While we fervently hope that the Aquis casino will succeed in only taking money from international “recreational gamblers”, freely spending their hard-earned cash in Cairns to the benefit of the local community, we doubt this will be the case. Instead, the casino is likely to be underwritten by residents of the Cairns region. </p>
<p>Just 4000 people with some degree of gambling problems are likely to spend an extra $33.5 million each year on the 1500 proposed pokies at the Aquis casino. Questions must be asked as to whether the profits from the casino, going offshore to the Hong Kong-based developers, will be worth the inevitable local costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30253/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Markham holds an Australian Postgraduate Award from the Commonwealth government. He has previously been employed on projects jointly funded by the Australian Research Council and the Community Benefit Fund of the Northern Territory. The Community Benefit Fund is financed by a levy on electronic gaming machines in hotels in the NT. He has also been employed on a project funded by the ACT Problem Gambling Assistance Fund. The fund is financed through a 0.6% levy on gross poker-machines losses in Australian Capital Territory and a $50,000 per annum payment from ACTTAB and the Canberra Casino.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Young has received funding from the Australian Research Council for a project titled "Gambling-Related Harm in Northern Australia", which was co-funded by the Northern Territory Community Benefit Fund (raised via a tax on pokie-gambling in pubs). In addition to his SCU position, he is an Honorary Fellow at the Menzies School of Health Research, Darwin, and a Visiting Fellow, Fenner School of Environment and Society, ANU</span></em></p>The proposed Aquis casino resort in Cairns is edging ever closer to regulatory approval. The development is touted by proponents as a “man-made wonder of the world” and will cost billions to develop. The…Francis Markham, PhD Candidate, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityMartin Young, Senior Lecturer, Centre for Gambling Education and Research, Southern Cross UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.