tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/canada-2257/articlesCanada – The Conversation2024-03-27T17:07:01Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2265582024-03-27T17:07:01Z2024-03-27T17:07:01ZThe total solar eclipse in North America could help shed light on a persistent puzzle about the Sun<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584141/original/file-20240325-24-ot473c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/totality-during-2023-australian-total-solar-2344355767">aeonWAVE / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/types/#hds-sidebar-nav-1">total solar eclipse</a> takes place on <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/">April 8 across North America</a>. These events occur when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth, completely blocking the Sun’s face. This plunges observers into a darkness similar to dawn or dusk.</p>
<p>During the upcoming eclipse, the path of totality, where observers experience the darkest part of the Moon’s shadow (the umbra), crosses Mexico, arcing north-east through Texas, the Midwest and briefly entering Canada before ending in Maine.</p>
<p>Total solar eclipses occur roughly <a href="https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/solar-eclipse-guide.html">every 18 months at some location on Earth</a>. The last total solar eclipse that crossed the US took place on August 21 2017. </p>
<p>An international team of scientists, led by Aberystwyth University, will be conducting experiments from <a href="https://www.fox4news.com/news/2024-eclipse-dallas-crowds-traffic">near Dallas</a>, at a location in the path of totality. The team consists of PhD students and researchers from Aberystwyth University, Nasa Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, and Caltech (California Institute of Technology) in Pasadena. </p>
<p>There is valuable science to be done during eclipses that is comparable to or better than what we can achieve via space-based missions. Our experiments may also shed light on a longstanding puzzle about the outermost part of the Sun’s atmosphere – its corona.</p>
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<img alt="Eclipse shadow" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The path of eclipse totality passes through Mexico, the US and Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5186/">NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio</a></span>
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<p>The Sun’s intense light is blocked by the Moon during a total solar eclipse. This means that we can observe the <a href="https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/corona.shtml">Sun’s faint corona</a> with incredible clarity, from distances very close to the Sun, out to several solar radii. One radius is the distance equivalent to half the Sun’s diameter, about 696,000km (432,000 miles).</p>
<p>Measuring the corona is extremely difficult without an eclipse. It requires a special telescope <a href="https://www.space.com/what-is-a-coronagraph.html">called a coronagraph</a> that is designed to block out direct light from the Sun. This allows fainter light from the corona to be resolved. The clarity of eclipse measurements surpasses even coronagraphs based in space.</p>
<p>We can also observe the corona on a relatively small budget, compared to, for example, spacecraft missions. A persistent puzzle about the corona is the observation <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119815600.ch2">that it is much hotter</a> than the photosphere (the visible surface of the Sun). As we move away from a hot object, the surrounding temperature should decrease, not increase. How the corona is heated to such high temperatures is one question we will investigate.</p>
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<img alt="Solar eclipse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/solar-eclipse-diagram-1146598682">Andramin / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>We have two main scientific instruments. The first of these is Cip (coronal imaging polarimeter). Cip is also the Welsh word for “glance”, or “quick look”. The instrument takes images of the Sun’s corona with a polariser. </p>
<p>The light we want to measure from the corona is highly polarised, which means it is made up of waves that vibrate in a single geometric plane. A polariser is a filter that lets light with a particular polarisation pass through it, while blocking light with other polarisations. </p>
<p>The Cip images will allow us to measure fundamental properties of the corona, such as its density. It will also shed light on phenomena such as the solar wind. This is a stream of sub-atomic particles in the form of plasma – superheated matter – flowing continuously outward from the Sun. Cip could help us identify sources in the Sun’s atmosphere for certain solar wind streams.</p>
<p>Direct measurements of the magnetic field in the Sun’s atmosphere are difficult. But the eclipse data should allow us to study its fine-scale structure and trace the field’s direction. We’ll be able to see how far magnetic structures called large “closed” magnetic loops extend from the Sun. This in turn will give us information about large-scale magnetic conditions in the corona.</p>
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<img alt="Coronal loops." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coronal loops are found around sunspots and in active regions of the Sun.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/coronal-loops-an-active-region-of-sun/">NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory</a></span>
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<p>The second instrument is Chils (coronal high-resolution line spectrometer). It collects high-resolution spectra, where light is separated into its component colours. Here, we are looking for a particular spectral signature of iron emitted from the corona. </p>
<p>It comprises three spectral lines, where light is emitted or absorbed in a narrow frequency range. These are each generated at a different range of temperatures (in the millions of degrees), so their relative brightness tells us about the coronal temperature in different regions. </p>
<p>Mapping the corona’s temperature informs advanced, computer-based models of its behaviour. These models must include mechanisms for how the coronal plasma is heated to such high temperatures. Such mechanisms might include the conversion of magnetic waves to thermal plasma energy, for example. If we show that some regions are hotter than others, this can be replicated in models. </p>
<p>This year’s eclipse also occurs during a time of heightened solar activity, so we could observe a <a href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections">coronal mass ejection (CME)</a>. These are huge clouds of magnetised plasma that are ejected from the Sun’s atmosphere into space. They can affect infrastructure near Earth, causing problems for vital satellites. </p>
<p>Many aspects of CMEs are poorly understood, including their early evolution near the Sun. Spectral information on CMEs will allow us to gain information on their thermodynamics, and their velocity and expansion near the Sun.</p>
<p>Our eclipse instruments have recently been proposed for a space mission called <a href="https://www.surrey.ac.uk/research-projects/feasibility-study-moon-enabled-sun-occultation-mission-mesom">Moon-enabled solar occultation mission (Mesom)</a>. The plan is to orbit the Moon to gain more frequent and extended eclipse observations. It is being planned as a UK Space Agency mission involving several countries, but led by University College London, the University of Surrey and Aberystwyth University.</p>
<p>We will also have an advanced commercial 360-degree camera to collect video of the April 8 eclipse and the observing site. The video is valuable for public outreach events, where we highlight the work we do, and helps to generate public interest in our local star, the Sun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huw Morgan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The eclipse will allow scientists to get rare measurements of the Sun’s atmosphere.Huw Morgan, Reader in Physical Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244482024-03-21T20:52:25Z2024-03-21T20:52:25ZThe stakes could not be higher as Canada sets its 2035 emissions target<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583506/original/file-20240321-30-o7bta5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C0%2C5233%2C3478&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Canadian government is currently running a public consultation to help inform its 2035 emissions reductions targets.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Government of Canada is in the midst of a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2024/02/government-of-canada-launches-public-engagement-on-the-2035-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target.html">public engagement on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target</a>. </p>
<p>The timeline is short, and the stakes could not be higher. </p>
<p>According to Section 7 of the <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-19.3/fulltext.html">Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act</a> (Net-Zero Act), the 2035 milestone must be set by December 2024, <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">in time to be formally announced to other Paris Agreement members in 2025</a>. </p>
<p>The risks of delaying decisive action are huge, with the European Union’s climate change service recently warning that global average temperatures have now reached <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310">1.52 C of warming</a>.</p>
<h2>Why 1.5 C matters</h2>
<p>Section 8 of the Net-Zero Act requires the 2035 target to take into account the best scientific information available, Canada’s international commitments, Indigenous knowledge, and the recommendations of the <a href="https://www.nzab2050.ca/">Net-Zero Advisory Body</a>. </p>
<p>The scientific community is resolute that there are “<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">robust differences</a>” between <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal/">global warming of 1.5 C and 2 C</a>, including increases in hot extremes and heavy precipitation. <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/eccc/en4/En4-544-2023-eng.pdf">For Canadians</a>, extreme heat has been the deadliest impact so far, with at least 619 deaths caused by the 2021 heat dome alone. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://canadianclimat.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Executive-summary-damage-control.pdf">recent report</a> found that “in 2025, Canada will experience $25 billion in losses relative to a stable-climate scenario, which is equal to 50 per cent of projected 2025 GDP growth.” Climate change related damages could reach between $78 and $101 billion annually by mid-century if adequate action is not taken. </p>
<p>Senior climate scientist at the University of the Bahamas Adelle Thomas notes that for island states and least-developed countries <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/meeting-the-1-5-c-climate-goal-will-save-millions-of-people-and-its-still-feasible/">“‘one-point-five to stay alive’ is reality, it’s not a slogan.”</a> Here and abroad, equity-seeking groups are those worst impacted.</p>
<h2>Why participate?</h2>
<p>The federal government’s <a href="https://canada-2035-target.ethelo.net/page/how-to-participate">public engagement platform</a> is available until March 28, 2024. While not perfect — I personally felt that the questions put too much emphasis on how to prioritize actions as opposed to the pace of action and how to fairly distribute transition costs — individuals and organizations can also upload a document of their choice to contribute beyond the questions provided.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-assemblies-can-help-canada-tackle-the-climate-crisis-210843">How climate assemblies can help Canada tackle the climate crisis</a>
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<p>These submissions correspond to Section 13 of the Net-Zero Act, which allows any interested person to make submissions on how to respond to what the Supreme Court <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/18781/index.do">described</a> as “an existential threat to human life in Canada and around the world.” The Paris Agreement also envisions target-setting as a bottom-up process, and Article 12 calls on states to enhance “education, training, public awareness, public participation and public access to information.”</p>
<h2>Ongoing issues</h2>
<p>Canada’s current targets under the Net-Zero Act are a 20 per cent emissions reduction (against 2005 levels) by 2026, a 40-45 per cent reduction by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050. The 2030 target appears in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">global registry</a> of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) as Canada’s pledge under Article 4(2) of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>Several issues can be identified with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Canada%27s%20Enhanced%20NDC%20Submission1_FINAL%20EN.pdf">current pledge</a> which should be remedied in the 2035 target.</p>
<p>One of the main issues is Canada’s approach to “fair shares.” The Paris Agreement leaves it open to states to define ambition, fairness and equity in their own terms. However, there is a <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/">growing consensus</a> that Canada’s efforts are “highly insufficient.” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1970504">One study of a range of NDCs (including Canada’s)</a> points out that defining fair shares in comparison with current emissions, or business-as-usual projections, is contrary to international environmental law as such a framework “grandfathers” in existing emissions — unfortunately, <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Canada%27s%20Enhanced%20NDC%20Submission1_FINAL%20EN.pdf">Canada’s NDCs does exactly this</a>. </p>
<p>By contrast, systems and <a href="https://climateequityreference.org/about-the-climate-equity-reference-project-effort-sharing-approach/">calculators</a> do exist which allow modelling fair shares based on different assumptions about historical responsibilities and current capacity to act. Canada should explain its approach going forward, since equity is a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Another major issue with the 2030 target is Canada’s stance on emissions trading, since the current NDC “recognizes that internationally transferred mitigation outcomes could complement domestic efforts.” This statement makes it impossible to understand what part of the target will be achieved through systems transformation at home and what part will be compensated by emissions trading. This ambiguity requires urgent clarity in the 2035 target. </p>
<p>Furthermore, while the Paris Agreement allows emissions trading, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01245-w">experts warn that delaying true decarbonization may also reduce innovation and limit future options</a>. </p>
<p>A third and last issue is Canada’s approach to Indigenous-led climate policy. A full section of the 2030 target is dedicated to Indigenous climate leadership and includes references to Indigenous rights and a nation-to-nation relationship. However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2047585">scholars</a> have observed on the part of the federal government a “clear unwillingness to recognize Indigenous jurisdiction” in the implementation of climate policy in Canada. This unwillingness limits Indigenous <a href="https://afn.ca/environment/national-climate-strategy/">decision-making powers</a> over land and resources. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-nature-agreement-underscores-the-need-for-true-reconciliation-with-indigenous-nations-217427">Canada’s Nature Agreement underscores the need for true reconciliation with Indigenous nations</a>
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<p>This should be remedied, especially since “<a href="https://files.ipbes.net/ipbes-web-prod-public-files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf">Nature is generally declining less rapidly in indigenous peoples’ land than in other lands</a>.”</p>
<h2>Keeping on task</h2>
<p>Ultimately, one of the key factors in reaching the 2035 target is <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/commentary/doc/2023CanLIIDocs3169">whether the Net-Zero Act delivers strong accountability</a>. Indeed, both the <a href="https://dashboard.440megatonnes.ca/?_gl=1*v8ysbi*_ga*MTY0NTM3ODc1OC4xNzA5NTY5MjI0*_ga_DVTX0HL4Z5*MTcwOTU2OTIyNC4xLjEuMTcwOTU2OTI0MC4wLjAuMA..*_gcl_au*OTc4NDEzNzM3LjE3MDk1NjkyMjQ.">Canadian Climate Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202311_06_e_44369.html">Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development</a> have raised alarming concerns regarding the progress Canada has made towards the 2035 target — stronger accountability is essential to meet these goals.</p>
<p>In response to these many challenges, we must resist the temptation to go for a weak 2035 target and use the current process to think creatively about how it can be transformational and fair at the same time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Campbell-Duruflé receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) for his research. He serves on the Legal Committee of the Centre québécois du droit de l'environnement.</span></em></p>We must resist the temptation to go for a weak 2035 target and use the public consultation process to think creatively about how the net-zero transition can be both transformational and fair for all.Christopher Campbell-Duruflé, Assistant Professor, Lincoln Alexander School of Law, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255242024-03-21T17:53:21Z2024-03-21T17:53:21ZWhether it’s Trump or Biden as president, U.S. foreign policy endangers the world<p>Many observers of American politics are understandably terrified at the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected president of the United States in November.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/11/9/has-us-democracy-failed-for-good">The U.S.</a> is already showing signs of a <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/democracy-crisis">failed democracy</a>. <a href="https://www.citizen.org/news/twelve-years-since-citizens-united-big-money-corruption-keeps-getting-worse/">Its government</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/9/28/corruption-is-as-american-as-apple-pie">and politics</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/01/us/politics/government-dysfunction-normal.html">are often dysfunctional</a> and plagued <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/28/report-transparency-international-corruption-worst-decade-united-states/">with corruption</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-should-be-preparing-for-the-end-of-american-democracy-176930">Canada should be preparing for the end of American democracy</a>
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<p>A Trump victory would raise fears of a new level of decline into <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/us/politics/trump-rhetoric-fascism.html">fascist authoritarianism</a>. However, a second Trump presidency would not necessarily implement a foreign policy any more destructive than what is normal for the U.S. </p>
<h2>Violence part of U.S. foreign policy</h2>
<p>Since the start of the 21st century, the U.S. has unleashed enormous violence and instability on the global stage. This is a feature of American foreign policy, regardless of who’s president. </p>
<p>In 2001, in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. launched its “war on terror.” It invaded and <a href="https://theconversation.com/by-not-investigating-the-u-s-for-war-crimes-the-international-criminal-court-shows-colonialism-still-thrives-in-international-law-115269">occupied Afghanistan</a>, then illegally invaded and occupied Iraq. </p>
<p>These actions <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/">caused the deaths of 4.6 million people over the next 20 years, destabilized the Middle East and caused massive refugee migrations</a>. </p>
<p>In 2007-2008, <a href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/why-did-the-global-financial-crisis-of-2007-09-happen">the under-regulated U.S. economy caused a global financial crisis</a>. The <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2018/10/03/blog-lasting-effects-the-global-economic-recovery-10-years-after-the-crisis">associated political and economic fallout</a> <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/09/the-social-and-political-costs-of-the-financial-crisis-10-years-later">continues to resonate</a>. </p>
<p>In 2011, <a href="https://www.globalvillagespace.com/consequences-of-us-nato-military-intervention-in-libya/">the U.S. and its</a> <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/how-nato-pushed-us-libya-fiasco">NATO allies intervened in Libya</a>, <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/libya-floods-nato/">collapsing that state, destabilizing northern Africa</a> and creating more refugees. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/opinion/nato-summit-vilnius-europe.html">The U.S. tried to</a> <a href="https://harpers.org/archive/2023/06/why-are-we-in-ukraine/">consolidate its dominance in Europe by expanding NATO</a>, despite Russia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine">warning against this for decades</a>. This strategy played a role in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014 and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. </p>
<p>President Joe Biden’s administration <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/">has been accused both of helping to provoke the war</a> in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/">hopes of permanently weakening Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/why-peace-talks-but-no-peace/">of resisting peace negotiations</a>.</p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://time.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger/">Ukraine appears to stand on the verge of defeat</a> and territorial division, and U.S. Congress <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/us-congress-support-ukraine-war/677256/">seems set to abandon it.</a></p>
<h2>Fuelling global tensions</h2>
<p>The U.S. has provoked tensions with China <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/harvard-guru-gives-biden-a-d-for-china-policy/">by reneging on American commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) to refrain from having official relations or an “alliance” with Taiwan</a>. <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/proposals-for-us-action-in-s-china-sea-should-worry-everyone/">The U.S. has also been accused</a> of <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2018/06/20/us-pundits-and-politicians-pushing-for-war-in-the-south-china-sea/">encouraging conflict in the South China Sea</a> as it has <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2023/2/14/david_vine_us_bases_china_philippines">surrounded China with hundreds of military bases.</a> </p>
<p>Israel’s assault on Gaza is partly the culmination of decades of misguided U.S. foreign policy. Unconditional American support of Israel has helped enable <a href="https://www.amnesty.ca/human-rights-news/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/?psafe_param=1&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw7-SvBhB6EiwAwYdCAVW84WyFFiEvbjzsIp5pPDN5CDlYOCBM52mCC6X6HGC6u52iuTDyyxoCM7MQAvD_BwE">the country’s degeneration</a> into what human rights organizations have called <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution">apartheid</a>, as the state has built illegal settlements on Palestinian land and violently suppressed Palestinian self-determination. </p>
<p>As Israel is accused <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68550937">of using starvation as a weapon against 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza</a>, half of them children, the U.S. is fully <a href="https://ccrjustice.org/home/press-center/ccr-news/building-case-us-complicity">complicit in the Israeli war crimes</a> and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/south-african-lawyers-preparing-lawsuit-against-us-uk-for-complicity-in-israels-war-crimes-in-gaza/3109201">for facilitating a conflict</a> that is further inflaming a critically important region. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-strikes-against-houthis-risk-igniting-a-powderkeg-in-the-middle-east-221392">Western strikes against Houthis risk igniting a powderkeg in the Middle East</a>
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<p>Israel is of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/israel-strategic-liability">little to no strategic value</a> <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230804-israel-no-longer-serves-us-interest-says-ex-senior-white-house-official/">to the U.S</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3167/isf.2007.220205">American politicians contend that its overwhelming support for Israel reflects moral and cultural ties,</a> <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/11/us-ignores-israeli-war-crimes-domestic-politics-ex-official">but it’s mainly</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/politics/aipac-israel-gaza-democrats-republicans.html">driven by domestic politics</a>. </p>
<p>That suggests that for <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/5929705/us-israel-friends">domestic political reasons</a>, the U.S. has endangered global stability and supported atrocities. </p>
<h2>Biden/Trump foreign policy</h2>
<p>The Biden administration has continued many of the foreign policy initiatives it inherited from Trump. </p>
<p>Biden doubled down on <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2022/12/25/biden-escalates-the-economic-war-with-china/?sh=1f1caa1412f3">Trump’s economic</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3253917/no-end-us-trade-war-china-biden-administration-pledges-policy-document">technological and political war against China</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-american-technological-war-against-china-could-backfire-219158">Why the American technological war against China could backfire</a>
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<p>He <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/biden-administration-continues-be-wrong-about-wto">reinforced Trump’s trade protectionism</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/08/wto-flops-usa-shrugs-00145691">left the World Trade Organization hobbled</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/09/1110109088/biden-is-building-on-the-abraham-accords-part-of-trumps-legacy-in-the-middle-eas">He built on Trump’s “Abraham Accords,”</a> an initiative to convince Arab states to normalize their relations with Israel without a resolution to the Palestine question. </p>
<p>The Biden administration’s efforts to push normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/11/analysis-why-did-hamas-attack-now-and-what-is-next">is considered part of Hamas’s motivation to attack Israel on Oct. 7, 2023</a>.</p>
<p>None of this inspires confidence in U.S. “global leadership.”</p>
<p>Biden and Trump share the same goal: <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/americas-plot-for-world-domination/">permanent American global domination</a>. They only differ in how to achieve this. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/deconstructing-trumps-foreign-policy/">believes the U.S.</a> can <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/20/key-moments-in-trumps-foreign-policy">use economic and military might</a> <a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_2020_the_year_of_economic_coercion_under_trump/">to coerce the world</a> into acquiescing to American desires, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-strong-arm-foreign-policy-tactics-create-tensions-with-both-us-friends-and-foes/2020/01/18/ddb76364-3991-11ea-bb7b-265f4554af6d_story.html">regardless of the costs to everyone else</a> and without the U.S. assuming any obligations to others. </p>
<p>In office, <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/01/20/trump-the-anti-war-president-was-always-a-myth/">Trump tried to present himself as “anti-war.”</a> But his inclination to use of threats and violence reflected established American behaviour.</p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://jacobin.com/2022/10/biden-national-security-strategy-us-hegemony">follows a more diplomatic strategy</a> that tries to control international institutions and convince key states their interests are best served by accepting and co-operating with American domination. However, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/biden-warns-us-military-may-get-pulled-direct-conflict-russia-1856613">Biden readily resorts to economic and military coercion</a>, too. </p>
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<h2>Reality check?</h2>
<p>The silver lining to a Trump presidency is that it might force U.S. allies to confront reality.</p>
<p>American allies convinced themselves that <a href="https://www.policymagazine.ca/the-biden-doctrine-our-long-international-nightmare-is-over/">the Biden presidency was a return to normalcy</a>, but they’re still accepting and supporting American global violence. They’re also wilfully ignoring the ongoing American political decay that could not be masked by Biden’s defeat of Trump in 2020.</p>
<p>Trump is a <a href="https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/trump-symptom-diseased-american-democracy">symptom of American political dysfunction, not a cause</a>. Even if he loses in November, the Republican Party will continue its slide towards fascism and American politics will remain toxic.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/18/1232263785/generations-after-its-heyday-isolationism-is-alive-and-kicking-up-controversy">A second Trump presidency may convince American allies that the U.S. is unreliable and inconsistent</a>. It may undermine the mostly <a href="https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2024/03/14/how-europe-and-australia-can-end-our-slide-into-irrelevance-servility-national-press-club-of-australia-speech-13-march-2024/">western coalition that has dominated and damaged the world so profoundly</a>. </p>
<p>If Trump returns, traditional U.S. allies may recognize that their interests lie in reconsidering their relations with the U.S. </p>
<p>For American neighbours Canada and Mexico, a Trump presidency is only bad news. They’ll <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joly-us-authoritarian-game-plan-1.6939369#:%7E:text=Politics-,Canada%20mulling%20'game%20plan'%20if%20U.S.%20takes%20far%2Dright,after%20next%20year's%20presidential%20elections.">have to somehow protect themselves from creeping U.S. fascism</a>. For the rest of the world, it may herald the start of a dynamic multipolar order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Narine has contributed to Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East and Jewish Voice for Peace.</span></em></p>A second Donald Trump presidency would not necessarily implement a foreign policy any more destructive than what is normal for the United States.Shaun Narine, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235822024-03-20T16:35:50Z2024-03-20T16:35:50ZFriend-shoring: what Biden wants to achieve by trading with allies rather than rivals<p>The tendency to move production and trade away from countries considered to be political rivals or national security risks and towards allies, so-called <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0714">“friend-shoring”</a>, is a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/friendshoring-global-trade-buzzwords/">hot topic</a> among economists. The term popped up during the COVID pandemic, a time of significant disruption to supply chains, and gained further traction when Russia invaded Ukraine.</p>
<p>One of the most high-profile results of a friend-shoring policy is that Canada and Mexico have recently replaced China as America’s largest trading partners by total trade, while Mexico has overtaken China as America’s top importer (see figures below). This followed the introduction of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zhaohui-Wang-22/publication/338085025_Understanding_Trump's_Trade_Policy_with_China_International_Pressures_Meet_Domestic_Politics/links/5fdf5d53299bf140882f7481/Understanding-Trumps-Trade-Policy-with-China-International-Pressures-Meet-Domestic-Politics.pdf">Donald Trump’s trade strategy</a>, which aimed to reduce US dependence on Chinese goods – partly for political reasons and partly because of Trump’s perception of China as a rival power. </p>
<p>Joe Biden has also <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/biden-to-sign-chips-act-china-competition-bill.html">placed restrictions on trade</a> with China in an attempt to strengthen US competitiveness with China and grow the US tech industry.</p>
<p>The US <a href="https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart">raised tariffs</a> on imports from China significantly during the Trump administration. These levels remain high, making the costs of importing goods from China to the US more expensive. </p>
<p>In addition, the International Labor Organization Global Wage <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---travail/documents/publication/wcms_862569.pdf">Report 2022-23</a> shows that China has experienced the highest rate of real wage growth among all G20 countries over the period 2008-22, also pushing up the price of Chinese goods. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/08/30/what-is-friendshoring">Biden administration</a> continues to champion friend-shoring, which has further encouraged companies to shift production from China to Mexico as they weigh up geopolitical risks against differences in the costs of production. </p>
<p>While data on the number of firms relocating production is not available, the latest trade data (see Figures 1 and 2) suggests Mexico has managed to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2ca4da83-f858-4215-88e7-544adf0aa18e">capitalise</a> on the US-China rivalry.</p>
<p>Closer relationships with allies can be created by forming new trade agreements, for example, the <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement#:%7E:text=The%20United%20States%2DMexico%2DCanada%20Agreement%20(USMCA)%20entered,farmers%2C%20ranchers%2C%20and%20businesses.">US, Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA)</a>, which is more about geopolitics and friend-shoring than lowering tariff barriers as was the case of its predecessor, the <a href="https://www.trade.gov/north-american-free-trade-agreement-nafta">North America Free Trade Agreement (Nafta)</a>. </p>
<p>But the USMCA was also a product of its time. US political will had shifted towards undermining political competitors and setting out anti-China political statements that resonated with voters. </p>
<p>Trump, a <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact">consistent critic of Nafta</a>, had argued that it undermined American jobs and wages, a statement that undoubtedly played well in US industrial states experiencing manufacturing decline. A paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research suggested that far more US jobs were lost due to <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21906/w21906.pdf">competition with China</a>.</p>
<h2>Doing business with your friends</h2>
<p>Friend-shoring is a new term for something that has been around for a long time. Countries engaged in sanctions, blockades, and friend-shoring during the first and second world wars on a much <a href="https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300270488/the-economic-weapon/">larger scale</a>. </p>
<p>In 1948, the US initiated economic sanctions against the Soviet Union, a 50-year-long strategy that started with export restrictions and was solidified by the Export Control Act of 1949. </p>
<p>These sanctions, intensified after the Battle Act of 1951, were aimed at limiting strategic goods to the Soviet bloc and became a permanent fixture of cold war policy following the escalation of the <a href="https://www.americanforeignrelations.com/E-N/Embargoes-and-Sanctions-Cold-war-sanctions.html">Korean war</a>.</p>
<p>Data analysis shows how trade responds to political factors. For over sixty years, trade economists have made extensive use of <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4037001">the gravity model</a> of trade, which has provided empirical evidence that countries tend to trade more with countries geographically closer to them as well as where there is a common language, common legal system, common exchange rate regime and shared colonial history. </p>
<p>Research also shows how political distance between countries and formal military alliances affects trade. </p>
<p><strong>Value of US imports from top five trading partners in 2010-23:</strong></p>
<p><strong>US trade with countries by value:</strong></p>
<p>Governments can use trade policy to strategically support their own industries, so reducing trade with rivals can be part of a political agenda based on boosting domestic manufacturing (and jobs) rather than relying on imports. The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china/">US Chips and Science</a> Act, and in the EU, the <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/european-chips-act_en">European Chips Act</a>, are examples of policies that can inflict economic pain on adversaries while ensuring domestic production of this key component in high-technology manufacturing. </p>
<p>However, developing an industry takes time. By the time the industry is established, it <a href="https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2021/scoring-50-years-us-industrial-policy-1970-2020">may not pay off</a>, either due to falling prices caused by increased supply or an economic slowdown that suppresses demand. </p>
<p>In the case of US chips, it is particularly interesting to note that the existing industry focuses on design and production of high-quality chips. Therefore, the latest policy will see low-cost microchips, the mainstay of the Chinese chip industry, start to be produced in the US and compete with the established US high-end suppliers. </p>
<p>The US has experienced the negative effects of these types of policies before. Just consider the US support for the steel industry, a popular choice among US presidents, including the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e0219409-b863-41fb-bbcb-6be9ad6f0a4e?emailId=c8a49fc1-229a-4246-984b-42598eccb2e6&segmentId=2785c52b-1c00-edaa-29be-7452cf90b5a2">current administration</a>. Under the Trump administration, this saw <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-cascading-out-control">25% tariffs</a> imposed on steel imports, which benefited the US industry but imposed costs on steel users. </p>
<p>Countries such as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-special-relationship-australia-safe-from-trump-s-tariffs-for-now-20190603-p51tyr.html">Australia</a> were exempt from this policy, while <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-cascading-out-control">other allies</a>, such as the EU, were hit hard. Industrial policy can reduce dependence on rivals, but it’s not clear that friends always get special treatment.</p>
<p>Other policies can tie in with a friend-shoring agenda. The new generation of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/twec.13213">EU trade agreements</a> deal with issues including labour rights and environmental protection, making it clear that third countries that want to do business with the EU need to meet the same standards. The EU has also been debating new anti-forced labour legislation, so this type of legislation may also start to get more serious consideration in the UK, for instance.</p>
<p>Friend-shoring policies aren’t new, but the slogan is. Self-sufficiency at the national level can inflict short-term pain on adversaries but may hold limited benefits in the medium term. However, there is broader acceptance that businesses need to have the certainty of trading bloc friends. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/regional-trade-agreements/#:%7E:text=Regional%20trade%20agreements%20(RTAs)%20cover,World%20Trade%20Organization%20(WTO).">Half of all trade</a> currently takes place between members of trade blocs, and recent trade data for the US and Mexico (see figures above) suggests that trade blocs may become more important over time as production moves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada and Mexico have replaced China as the US’s largest trading partners, due to friend-shoring policies.Karen Jackson, Reader in Economics, University of WestminsterOleksandr Shepotylo, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257422024-03-20T15:40:03Z2024-03-20T15:40:03ZIndigenous consultation is key to the Ring of Fire becoming Canada’s economic superpower<p>Many of the 30,000 attendees of the March 2024 <a href="https://www.pdac.ca/convention">Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada convention</a> harbour a “wild desire” to extract the mineral riches of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/story/fight-heats-up-over-canadas-ring-of-fire-where-67-billion-of-rare-minerals-is-buried-07f56a23">Canada’s $67 billion Ring of Fire</a>, in the words of Johnny Cash’s well-known song of the <a href="https://www.songfacts.com/lyrics/johnny-cash/ring-of-fire">same name</a>.</p>
<p>While some might be attracted by the desire to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/ring-of-fire-trillion-dollar-claim-1.6778551">make money</a>, others could be driven by concern for our planet and the belief that the region’s minerals can help reduce carbon emissions and support a <a href="https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare_news/article_58422893-2145-5a9d-a077-b2410dee4b4a.html">just energy transition</a>.</p>
<p>As some Indigenous groups have pointed out, however, the construction of roads and mining in the Ring of Fire represents a significant disruption to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ring-of-fire-mining-may-not-benefit-first-nations-as-hoped-1.1374849">traditional ways of life and fragile ecosystems</a>. </p>
<p>Some environmental groups have argued that mining activities in the region could result in a net increase of carbon emissions due to the removal or severe degradation of the vital <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/06/canada-mining-push-puts-major-carbon-sink-and-indigenous-lands-in-the-crosshairs/">carbon sinks sustained by peat lands and trees</a>. </p>
<p>Despite the significant economic and environmental impacts surrounding the development of the Ring of Fire, this focus overlooks another crucial issue: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2017.1422418">the potential for Indigenous/non-Indigenous conflict in northern Ontario</a>.</p>
<h2>The importance of Indigenous treaties</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2022.2157105">recent study</a> on the prospects for Indigenous/non-Indigenous conflict in relation to Québec’s <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/communiques_en/2012/c20120205-nord.htm">Plan Nord</a> has compelling parallels with Ontario’s <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-ring-fire">Ring of Fire</a>. </p>
<p>Both regions are located in the mineral-rich and ecologically sensitive northern reaches of the provinces that are home to numerous Indigenous Peoples. </p>
<p>Like Ontario, Québec’s Indigenous groups have a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/oka-crisis-timeline-summer-1990-1.5631229">fraught history with government interventions</a> and are often suspicious of plans to develop natural resources. </p>
<p>Our study reveals that if an Indigenous group has signed a modern treaty, there is a reduced risk of conflict related to proposed resource developments since there’s less uncertainty surrounding land tenure rights. Given the fundamental importance of land to Indigenous Peoples, threats to these rights — perceived or real — represent an understandable source of grievance that can spark conflict.</p>
<p>Although there will likely be procurement of services from local Indigenous communities and companies in the Ring of Fire region, the vast majority of its development activities will attract non-Indigenous workers and businesses to the area. </p>
<p>Our study also demonstrates that an influx of non-Indigenous workers can produce tensions with Indigenous groups that can rapidly escalate and lead to contentious interventions by the RCMP.</p>
<h2>Uncritical media coverage</h2>
<p>Given the potential economic windfalls associated with the development of the Ring of Fire, it’s easy to assume support among local residents. Politicians at all levels have called for the rapid development of the region as part of a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-ev-battery-materials-plant-1.6519260">broader investment strategy</a> to cast Canada as a critical minerals leader.</p>
<p>These political leaders highlight the dangers of climate change to encourage companies and consumers to embrace energy sources that reduce carbon emissions. In 2020, the Canadian government announced its <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/greening-government/strategy.html">Greening Government Strategy</a> aimed at achieving net-zero operations by 2050. </p>
<p>Reducing carbon emissions is also a key element of Canada’s <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/campaign/critical-minerals-in-canada/canadian-critical-minerals-strategy.html">Critical Minerals Strategy</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, media coverage of political pronouncements regarding mineral supply chains is often uncritical.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2021.2020663">recent study</a> of ours reveals that media coverage in Canada in both French and English rarely includes the perspectives of Indigenous people. Instead, reporters prefer to focus on the more sensational aspects of roadblocks and standoffs, which tend to marginalize the position of Indigenous Peoples.</p>
<p>Little consideration is given to assessing the complex impacts of natural resource development projects on Indigenous communities. </p>
<p>Take the case of the quip by Ontario Premier Doug Ford that “<a href="https://www.timminspress.com/news/local-news/you-will-see-me-on-that-bulldozer">you will see me on that bulldozer</a>” to underscore his government’s pledge to build road access to the Ring of Fire.</p>
<p>Although <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0033">roads can certainly generate positive impacts for local communities</a> (for example, greater mobility and connectivity; better access to public services such as health care; lower prices for consumer goods), they can also lead to negative outcomes (for example, they can degrade the natural environment, they’re expensive to build and they can serve as a route for criminal networks). </p>
<p>Roads also lead to <a href="https://irpp.org/research-studies/affordable-safe-transportation-options-remote-communities/">greater inflows of people in these previously remote communities</a>. Federal and provincial environmental impact assessments of the proposed <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/northern-road-link-project">Northern Road Link</a> to the Ring of Fire are already underway, and there’s reason to believe that a regulatory green light could dramatically transform northern Ontario’s demographics — and thus increase probabilities for future conflict.</p>
<h2>Three recommendations</h2>
<p>What can be done to prevent conflict in the Ring of Fire? We propose three recommendations.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Respect existing treaties with Indigenous communities in the region. Where appropriate, negotiate side agreements that align with modern legal approaches to land use and property rights, thereby reducing uncertainty. Canadian governments could justify the investment in political capital to secure these agreements with Indigenous groups given the importance they’ve placed on promoting the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (<a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/declaration/index.html#:%7E:text=The%20Action%20Plan-,The%20United%20Nations%20Declaration%20on%20the%20Rights%20of%20Indigenous%20Peoples,Assent%20and%20came%20into%20force">UNDRIP</a>) and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/greening-government/greening-gov-fund.html">reducing carbon emissions</a> to facilitate a just energy transition.</p></li>
<li><p>The Ontario government should begin a new round of consultations with Indigenous communities and stakeholders that are inclusive, transparent, extensive and responsive. The previous round of consultations were <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ring-of-fire-first-nations-queens-park/">criticized for being rushed and perfunctory</a>. Truly consultative engagement would reduce grievances and signal to the world that sub-national governments can be global leaders in forging positive relationships with Indigenous Peoples.</p></li>
<li><p>Although the environmental impact of road construction is already mediated by regulatory <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/preparing-environmental-assessments">impact assessment legislation</a>, the effects of an influx of workers must be addressed. Federal and provincial governments — together with input from relevant Indigenous groups and municipalities — should revise existing <a href="https://wcsringoffire.ca/regional-planning-new/">urban planning</a> and <a href="https://wcsringoffire.ca/communities/">zoning by-laws</a> so that hamlets and small towns that are sure to grow do so in an economically, socially, and politically sustainable fashion. Incorporating all levels of governments in producing thoughtful urban planning measures would go a long way toward mitigating the negative impacts associated with increased migration to the region. </p></li>
</ol>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-environment-minister-is-headed-for-trouble-if-ottawa-doesnt-correct-course-on-the-ring-of-fire-175616">Canada's environment minister is headed for trouble if Ottawa doesn't correct course on the Ring of Fire</a>
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</em>
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<p>Critical minerals can serve as Canada’s <a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781487522452/corporate-social-responsibility-and-canada-and-x2019s-role-in-africa-and-x2019s-extractive-sectors/">superpower</a>, generating economic benefits domestically and boosting its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12472">reputation as an environmental leader</a> in the just energy transition. </p>
<p>But if Canada fails <a href="https://opencanada.org/resources-and-canadas-first-nations/">in the governance</a> of the Ring of Fire, and ignores the real prospects for serious conflict around the projects, these critical minerals could become Canada’s kryptonite by jeopardizing reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples and tarnishing its <a href="https://opencanada.org/canadas-long-legacy-of-multilateral-sustainable-development/">reputation abroad</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Grant has received grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Badriyya Yusuf has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She is a fellow for the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) Digital Policy Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dimitrios Panagos has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew I. Mitchell receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Ontario’s Ring of Fire could make Canada a minerals superpower, but Indigenous consultation is essential to ensure doing so does not harm reconciliation or Canada’s global reputation.Andrew Grant, Associate Professor of Political Studies, Queen's University, OntarioBadriyya Yusuf, PhD Candidate/Researcher in International Relations, Queen's University, OntarioDimitrios Panagos, Associate Professor, Political Philosophy, Memorial University of NewfoundlandMatthew I. Mitchell, Associate Professor, Political Studies, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258712024-03-15T21:14:11Z2024-03-15T21:14:11ZDoes TikTok pose a security threat to Canadians?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582280/original/file-20240315-30-xv5fae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C65%2C5472%2C3571&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">TikTok poses no more of a threat to democracy than other social media platforms.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Concerns about the threats TikTok poses to privacy and liberty were raised again, as a bill to divest TikTok of its Chinese ownership or ban it <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2318307395724">gathered steam</a> in the United States Congress. And Canada’s federal government revealed that it began investigating months ago whether foreign control of the app <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tiktok-national-security-review-1.7143574">poses a threat to national security</a>. </p>
<p>Government officials see TikTok posing a threat to Canadians in two ways: violating our personal privacy by collecting too much data, and sabotaging our democracy through misinformation and manipulation.</p>
<p>Are these threats theoretical or real? And is there any proof supporting the concerns that the Chinese government exerts control over <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/1774397D:CH">ByteDance Ltd.</a>, the Beijing-based company that owns TikTok?</p>
<p>There is good reason to believe TikTok may pose a threat to our privacy, but not to our democracy. The platform may collect too much data, but fears that China will use TikTok to misinform or manipulate us for political purposes are misplaced. </p>
<p>China doesn’t need to control TikTok to influence our elections. It can do that quite easily without this. Canada’s ongoing efforts to minimize the national security threat TikTok poses won’t neutralize the threat social media poses to democracy.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">CBC News looks into the potential ban of TikTok.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Privacy concerns are real</h2>
<p>But TikTok does pose a threat to our privacy. European regulators have <a href="https://www.priv.gc.ca/en/privacy-and-transparency-at-the-opc/proactive-disclosure/opc-parl-bp/ethi_20231025/is_20231025/">fined TikTok for collecting data</a> from users too young to provide valid consent, for misusing data and for “nudging” users toward privacy-invading conduct through default settings. </p>
<p>Class actions in Canada and the U.S. have made a <a href="https://www.priv.gc.ca/en/privacy-and-transparency-at-the-opc/proactive-disclosure/opc-parl-bp/ethi_20231025/is_20231025/">similar case</a>.</p>
<p>Cybersecurity experts have <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-tiktok-western-scrutiny-1.6760037">warned of how invasive the app can be</a>, as it tracks user location, incoming messages and which networks a user accessed. Permissions for this are buried deep in the app’s settings, but <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilsayegh/2022/11/09/tiktok-users-are-bleeding-data/">most users are unaware</a> or don’t bother to check.</p>
<p>In late March, Canada’s Privacy Commissioner and three provincial counterparts are set to <a href="https://www.priv.gc.ca/en/opc-news/news-and-announcements/2023/an_230223/">table a report on an investigation</a> into how TikTok gathers and uses our data. The Commission will most likely recommend following Europe’s lead in passing legislation to require greater transparency in the data TikTok collects and further restrictions in how they can use it.</p>
<h2>Fears that China will interfere</h2>
<p>On March 1, the federal government issued a new <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-development/news/2024/03/canada-strengthens-guidelines-on-foreign-investments-in-the-interactive-digital-media-sector.html">policy that foreign-owned platforms</a> like TikTok would face “enhanced scrutiny” under powers in the <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-21.8/index.html">Investment Canada Act</a>. Under the act, the government can impose conditions on foreign investors or companies where there are “reasonable grounds to believe” their involvement in Canada “could be injurious to national security.”</p>
<p>Cabinet ministers were <a href="https://www.canadianlawyermag.com/practice-areas/crossborder/federal-government-issues-additional-directions-for-interactive-digital-media/384566">clear and direct about their concerns</a>: “hostile state-sponsored or state-influenced actors may try to leverage foreign investments in the interactive digital media sector to spread disinformation and manipulate information.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-tiktok-western-scrutiny-1.6760037">Twenty-six per cent of Canadians now use TikTok</a>. Could the Canadian subsidiary of TikTok take measures to prevent the Chinese government from engaging in misinformation or manipulation?</p>
<h2>Why concerns are misplaced</h2>
<p>In February, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence issued a <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf">threat assessment</a> that revealed TikTok accounts run by a “propaganda arm” of the Chinese government “targeted candidates from both political parties during the U.S. midterm election cycle in 2022.”</p>
<p>But as one commentator noted in the <em>New York Times</em>, the National Intelligence report did not say <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/opinion/tiktok-ban-house-vote.html">whether TikTok’s algorithms promoted these nefarious accounts</a>. China may have used TikTok to misinform and manipulate, but it didn’t need to do so by directing ByteDance.</p>
<p>A 2021 study by the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab dug deep into TikTok’s code and data collection abilities; its findings support the view that <a href="https://citizenlab.ca/2021/03/tiktok-vs-douyin-security-privacy-analysis/">TikTok is no more invasive</a> than Facebook, Instagram or other social media platforms. </p>
<p>The study found that both TikTok and its Chinese version, Douyin, “do not appear to exhibit overtly malicious behavior similar to those exhibited by malware.” And although Douyin contains “features that raise privacy and security concerns, such as dynamic code loading and server-side search censorship,” it found “TikTok does not contain these features.”</p>
<p>This doesn’t mean that China is not able to direct ByteDance to do things that could harm Canadians. But it does support the view that China doesn’t have to bother with ByteDance — an agent of the Chinese government (or any adversary) can readily do so by posing as an ordinary user.</p>
<p>In short, fears about Chinese interference in Canadian and American elections may be warranted. But just as Russia may have used fake accounts on Facebook to interfere in the <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume2.pdf">2016 U.S. presidential election</a>, China can misinform and manipulate us by using any and all social media against us. </p>
<p>This points to the real threat to our democracy: social media we can’t control.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225871/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Diab does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>About 26 per cent of Canadians use TikTok. Regulating the app in Canada might be a better approach to avoiding external political influence.Robert Diab, Professor, Faculty of Law, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250672024-03-12T18:38:37Z2024-03-12T18:38:37ZCanada’s inaction in Gaza marks a failure of its feminist foreign policy<p><a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/assets/pdfs/iap2-eng.pdf?_ga=2.63794223.1840653675.1709657832-2101566470.1701624369">“Peace and prosperity are every person’s birthright.”</a> So opened then Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland’s introduction to Canada’s Feminist International Assistance Policy (FIAP).</p>
<p>Launched in 2017, the policy stated that Canada would take an explicitly feminist approach to international assistance, including a commitment to protecting women’s sexual and reproductive rights. Many considered it to be a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0020702020960120">forward-thinking policy that builds on the past work of NGOs and other international partners.</a></p>
<p>However, the policy also revealed shortcomings. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0020702020953424">It was criticized</a> for its <a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2020/02/10/the-growth-of-feminist-foreign-policy/">fuzzy definition of feminism,</a> its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2019.1592002">surface-level engagement</a> with the <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1229039">overlapping forms of inequality</a> women actually face and for its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orz027">neoliberal approach to feminism</a> that seeks to fix problems within the Global South, with little engagement with how these problems arose in the first place.</p>
<p>And now, as Israel’s offensive on Gaza marches on unabated and the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/29/gaza-death-toll-surpasses-30000-with-no-let-up-in-israeli-bombardment#:%7E:text=The%20death%20toll%20in%20%23Gaza,large%20majority%20women%20and%20children.">civilian death toll mounts</a>, Canada’s tepid response calls the strength and sincerity of its feminist commitments into doubt. Furthermore, the country’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-lawsuit-israel-military-exports-1.7134664">continued sale of military equipment to Israel</a> suggests where Canada’s stated feminist values conflict with other political interests leaving Palestinians by the wayside. </p>
<p>On a recent visit to Israel, Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly expressed solidarity with Israeli victims of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/oct-7-sexual-violence-united-nations-reasonable-grounds-1.7133305">sexual violence committed by Hamas</a> and announced <a href="https://x.com/melaniejoly/status/1767189501208666293?s=20">$1 million dollars</a> in support. In addition to funding, Joly also offered RCMP support to help investigate the crimes of sexual violence against Israeli women. </p>
<p>In December, Joly issued <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/joly-condemns-hamas-rapes-of-israeli-women-after-weeks-of-pressure-1.6677943">strong condemnations</a> in response to allegations of rape committed by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. </p>
<p>In February 2023, Joly <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9491196/canada-joly-ukraine-visit/">also pledged millions for Ukrainian victims of sexual assault</a> along with Canada’s support for the investigation and prosecution of sexual and gender-based violence committed during Russia’s war against Ukraine.</p>
<p>Will Canada do the same for Palestinian women affected by military and sexual violence?</p>
<h2>Palestinian women’s rights long ignored</h2>
<p>Joly <a href="https://twitter.com/melaniejoly/status/1760435093342986384?s=20">condemned</a> the sexual and gender-based violence being committed against Palestinian women in Gaza in February 2024, but without explicitly naming who the perpetrators of violence are. </p>
<p>Her statement came after <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/02/israelopt-un-experts-appalled-reported-human-rights-violations-against">United Nations experts</a> expressed alarm over “credible allegations of egregious human rights violations to which Palestinian women and girls continue to be subjected in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.” They cited reports of arbitrary executions, killings, detentions and sexual abuse of Palestinian women and girls by Israeli forces.</p>
<p>Even before the current escalation of violence, Canada’s support of Israel’s actions have long been identified as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2020.1805340">significant limitation of FIAP</a>.</p>
<p>In the policy’s peace and security section, Canada commits to advocate for the “respect and protection of the human rights of women and girls in its international and multilateral engagements.” It also says that ensuring the safety and security of women and girls is one of the key steps to ensuring peace.</p>
<p>In Gaza, this security is not being assured. Israel’s bombardment and tightened blockade has killed more than 31,000 people, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-walks-back-austins-gaza-casualty-figures-2024-02-29/">most of whom are women and children</a>. Those who survive live under constant threat and without access to basic medical aid, food and water. Over 85 per cent of the total population of Gaza — about 1.9 million civilians — <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15564.doc.htm#:%7E:text=A%20staggering%2085%20per%20cent,proposing%20that%20Palestinians%20should%20be">have been displaced</a> from their homes.</p>
<p>Palestinian women also face increased risk of sexual violence. There <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/22/claims-of-israeli-sexual-assault-of-palestinian-women-are-credible-un-panel-says">are credible</a> reports of sexual violence being used as a tool of war against both Israeli and Palestinian women. </p>
<h2>Reproductive health in Gaza in a dire state</h2>
<p>FIAP identifies a full range of reproductive healthcare <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9491196/canada-joly-ukraine-visit/#:%7E:text=Canada%20is%20pledging%20millions%20of,Russia%27s%20war%20on%20Ukraine%20nears.">as key to ensuring women and girls’ equality and empowerment</a>.</p>
<p>In Gaza, these rights are besieged daily. </p>
<p>An estimated <a href="https://prismreports.org/2024/02/13/reproductive-rights-organizations-failing-palestinians/">50,000 pregnant women in Gaza</a> are at <a href="https://jezebel.com/miscarriages-in-gaza-have-increased-300-under-israeli-1851168680">increased risk of miscarriage</a>, stillbirth and maternal death. This is in part due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uncertain-fate-of-patients-needing-life-saving-dialysis-treatment-in-gaza-220941">Israeli attacks on health-care facilities</a>. These attacks have led not only to direct casualties, but have also severely restricted access to prenatal and natal care. </p>
<p>Women are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/21/gaza-childbirth/">giving birth without appropriate medical care</a>. This puts their lives and the lives of their babies at risk, contributing to higher rates of maternal and infant death.</p>
<p>The widespread food crisis has also had dire implications for reproductive and maternal health. The <a href="https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/intensifying-conflict-malnutrition-and-disease-gaza-strip-creates-deadly-cycle">United Nations Children’s Fund has voiced concern</a> over the nutritional vulnerability of over 155,000 pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers. </p>
<p>Malnutrition can make breastfeeding difficult, if not impossible, and yet <a href="https://apnews.com/article/gaza-aid-babies-hamas-israel-war-e0f843a8f5f1af49efc45f6cb02005a6">formula has been difficult</a> (and for some, impossible) to access. This has been exacerbated by high prices and delays and restrictions on delivery of humanitarian aid. Malnutrition affects maternal health, and can also have long-term consequences for the health of mothers and their children.</p>
<h2>Canada must act</h2>
<p>After mounting public pressure, including country-wide protests, Canadian officials first uttered the word “ceasefire” in December, two months after the start of the war. They did so on Dec. 12, 2023, in a non-binding <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/un-onu/statements-declarations/2023-12-12-explanation-vote-explication.aspx?lang=eng">UN resolution vote</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Canadian exports of military equipment to Israel have not only continued, but have <a href="https://www.readthemaple.com/trudeau-government-authorized-28-million-of-new-military-exports-to-israel-since-october/">increased since October</a>. Global Affairs Canada claims these exports are only for <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/9/demands-for-canada-to-stop-supplying-weapons-to-israel-grow-louder">non-lethal equipment</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, they contribute to Israel’s military capacity. They undermine the legitimacy of Canada’s commitments to peacebuilding, and call into question whether its commitments to protecting the rights of women and girls extend to Palestinians.</p>
<p>Canada’s Feminist International Assistance Policy <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/priorities-priorites/policy-politique.aspx?lang=eng">claims to be</a> “a reflection of who we are as Canadians.” It expresses the belief that “it is possible to build a more peaceful, more inclusive and more prosperous world… A world where no one is left behind.” </p>
<p>By its own standards, Canada has a responsibility to do more than verbalize support for a humanitarian ceasefire and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2024/03/canada-announces-continued-assistance-for-people-in-gaza.html">provide humanitarian aid</a>. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/israel-gaza-london-ceasefire-ontario-families-1.7056926">delayed</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/30/canada-clarifies-its-stand-on-a-humanitarian-truce-00124372">inconsistent response</a> to Israel’s military violence in Gaza represents a failure to evenly apply its own foreign policy.</p>
<p>Canada’s current strategy of <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-aid-gaza">providing humanitarian aid</a> to assuage the effects of military violence, while simultaneously continuing to <a href="https://www.readthemaple.com/trudeau-government-authorized-28-million-of-new-military-exports-to-israel-since-october/">sell military equipment</a>, points to paradoxes within its foreign policy. An effective feminist foreign aid policy needs political action to address the root causes of poverty, violence and sexual and reproductive harm. In Gaza, this includes military occupation, violence and blockade. </p>
<p>If Canada truly wants to create a more peaceful and prosperous world, they must not leave Palestinian women behind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Potvin previously received funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mayme Lefurgey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada’s tepid response to the war in Gaza and the severe harm caused to Palestinian women casts doubt on the sincerity of the government’s Feminist International Assistance Policy.Jacqueline Potvin, Research Associate, School of Nursing, Western UniversityMayme Lefurgey, Research Fellow, Department of Sociology, University of New BrunswickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237072024-03-11T12:25:16Z2024-03-11T12:25:16ZShould people suffering from mental illness be eligible for medically assisted death? Canada plans to legalize that in 2027 – a philosopher explains the core questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580759/original/file-20240308-16-9f5ja6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C2101%2C1409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In advocates' eyes, expanding access to a medically assisted death helps people protect their autonomy at a crucial time.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-a-young-womans-hand-holding-the-hand-of-royalty-free-image/1408213220?phrase=hands+death+love+bed&adppopup=true">Eva HM/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine that you have lived with an illness for years. The suffering this illness has caused is devastating – so much that you wish to die. You no longer feel like the person you were before. You have been to see specialists, have tried the best treatments, but nothing works.</p>
<p>This is many people’s reality, and not only because of physical disorders and disease. Chronic mental illness can be just as crushing. Starting in March 2024, Canada planned to make medical assistance in death, or MAID, available to people with mental illness – <a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/cj-jp/ad-am/bk-di.html">expanding a program</a> already available to patients with terminal or chronic physical illness. In 2022, more than 13,000 people in Canada died with medical assistance, according to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/hc-sc/documents/services/medical-assistance-dying/annual-report-2022/annual-report-2022.pdf">a government report</a>.</p>
<p>In February, however, the government announced <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/news/2024/02/the-government-of-canada-introduces-legislation-to-delay-medical-assistance-in-dying-expansion-by-3-years.html">a three-year delay</a> for the controversial program, saying the health care system needs more time to prepare.</p>
<p>When it is enacted in March 2027, this new provision will make Canada one of the few countries that allow MAID for mental illness. These include <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.895387">the Netherlands</a> <a href="https://pegasos-association.com/requirements/">and Switzerland</a>. Only a minority of U.S. states, such as Maine and Oregon, <a href="https://deathwithdignity.org/states/">allow any kind of MAID</a>, though many others have debated it – and none allow it for mental illness.</p>
<p>Critics say there are inadequate safeguards and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-assisted-dying-maid-legislation-mental-health-1.5452676">a dearth of health care coverage</a> for psychiatric and psychological issues, which could prompt people to view MAID as their only alternative. They also point to the difficulty of predicting whether or not someone’s mental illness will eventually get better.</p>
<p>MAID activists believe that access to this choice for patients with mental illness is morally required. But even people <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/medical-assistance-in-dying-mental-illness-delay-1.7098313">not opposed to Canada’s new provision</a> are concerned about whether the system is ready.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.gonzaga.edu/college-of-arts-sciences/faculty-listing/detail/kulp">a philosopher</a> who specializes in <a href="https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss/1277/">end of life ethics</a> and physician-assisted death, I research a distinction that is at the heart of this debate. There is a subtle but crucial difference between being acutely suicidal – an experience that may pass – and, after long consideration, desiring death in the face of suffering. </p>
<h2>My body, my decision?</h2>
<p>Plenty of people oppose MAID – often called physician-assisted death – under any circumstances, including terminal physical illness. Some believe it <a href="https://www.cccb.ca/media-release/statement-by-the-canadian-conference-of-catholic-bishops-on-the-non-permissibility-of-euthanasia-and-assisted-suicide-within-canadian-health-organizations-with-a-catholic-identity/">violates the sanctity of human life</a>. </p>
<p>Others have qualms about asking doctors, who are normally concerned about the preservation of human life, <a href="https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2019/11/57243/">to participate in ending it</a>. In other words, they emphasize nonmaleficence, the obligation to do no harm – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1159/000509119">one of the core tenets of medical ethics</a>.</p>
<p>Many proponents, on the other hand, base their arguments on two other core tenets: beneficence – the obligation to benefit the patient – and autonomy. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195140279.003.0002">Autonomy arguments</a> usually assume that a government is only justified in restricting citizens’ liberty if exercising that liberty would cause harm to other people.</p>
<p>Advocates of physician-assisted death emphasize that ending one’s own life does not harm other people, suggesting that the government has no business curtailing the patient’s choices. Legalization ensures that citizens can make their own decisions about one of the most personal and value-laden times of life.</p>
<p>In medical ethicists’ view, in order for a person to be considered autonomous, they must be able to act intentionally and with an understanding of the potential consequences of their actions. Additionally, an autonomous person is reasonably free from undue influence – such as family members pressuring them or financial considerations that restrict their choices. </p>
<p>When it comes to physical illness, ethicists who <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/RIDMAI-2">argue that physician-assisted death is morally permissible</a> view patients as free actors exercising their autonomy if they meet several criteria: they are terminally and chronically ill, have worked with medical professionals over time and have established an unchanging desire to end their suffering.</p>
<h2>Thorny issues</h2>
<p>Experiences of mental illness, however, raise serious questions about patients’ autonomy.</p>
<p>Mental illnesses often limit a person’s ability to govern their own lives free from the effects of their illness. For instance, a patient with <a href="https://theconversation.com/mariah-carey-says-she-has-bipolar-disorder-a-psychiatrist-explains-what-that-is-94893">bipolar I disorder</a> is not fully autonomous during the middle of a manic episode. Were it not for their disease, they would be less likely to engage in the types of behaviors that characterize a manic episode, such as reckless spending or risky sexual encounters.</p>
<p>Yet this is not true for all mental illnesses, or at all times. A person with well-treated bipolar 1 disorder will have periods in which <a href="https://www.samhsa.gov/mental-health/bipolar">their symptoms are under control</a>. In fact, it is in these periods of lucidity when <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/world/canada/medical-assisted-death-mental-illness.html">some bipolar patients</a> decide their own death would be preferable to the suffering they endure. </p>
<p>Moreover, proponents of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/opinion/medical-assistance-dying-mental-illness-maid.html">extending physician-assisted death to mental illness</a> believe that the approval process can protect people who request it when acutely suicidal or who have not yet received adequate treatment.</p>
<p>In Canada’s proposed system, a mentally ill person requesting MAID must have been informed of all reasonable treatment options. They must also demonstrate a sustained desire to receive MAID, including waiting for 90 days after their application. Finally, the patient must have two doctors certify that their suffering is “<a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/other-autre/ad-am/p1.html">grievous and irremediable</a>” in any way the patient finds acceptable.</p>
<p>One key issue in preparing Canada’s health care system is whether providers have received enough training <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/publications/health-system-services/advice-profession-medical-assistance-dying.html#a7">to differentiate someone who is acutely suicidal</a> from someone who is in a frame of mind to make this decision thoughtfully. If someone is experiencing an acute desire to die that may be a symptom of their illness, most ethicists would find MAID morally impermissible. If, however, a mentally ill person <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/shes-47-anorexic-wants-help-dying-canada-will-soon-allow-it-2023-07-15/">has spent years suffering</a>, has exhausted reasonable treatment and has maintained a desire to die for some time, some ethicists believe MAID is appropriate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maria Kulp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Assessing a patient’s autonomy can be more difficult when mental illness is the main source of their suffering.Maria Kulp, Associate Professor of Philosophy, Gonzaga UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249152024-03-03T14:27:16Z2024-03-03T14:27:16ZBrian Mulroney’s tough stand against apartheid is one of his most important legacies<p>With his <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/brian-mulroney-passes-away-1.7130287">passing</a> announced on Feb. 29, Canadians have cause to reflect on the legacy of former prime minister Brian Mulroney. What will last when the great book of history is written is that Mulroney played a central role in the dismantling of apartheid in South Africa. </p>
<p>This contribution, along with Canada’s contributions to the First and Second World Wars and <a href="https://www.warmuseum.ca/learn/canada-and-peacekeeping-operations/">the creation of peacekeeping</a>, will stand among the great foreign policy contributions in Canadian history. </p>
<p>At the outset, we must acknowledge that apartheid — the system of racial separation and white domination of Blacks and others in South Africa — was <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-politics-explainer-the-end-of-apartheid-101602">brought down principally by South Africans themselves</a>. Their internal opposition to the regime, their mobilization of world opinion and action against it and their courage and moral clarity was a necessary condition for its end. </p>
<p>But the end of apartheid was accelerated by allies in the democratic West, and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-brian-mulroney-south-africa-ramaphosa/">at the head of that group stood Mulroney</a>. Indeed, there is good reason why <a href="https://macleans.ca/news/world/macleans-archives-mandelas-three-city-visit-to-canada/">Nelson Mandela made his first foreign visit to Canada’s Parliament</a> after his release from prison in February of 1990. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2015/12/08/statement-prime-minister-canada-former-prime-minister-brian-mulroney">South Africa awarded Mulroney its highest honour for foreign citizens</a> in 2015 for his “exceptional contribution to South Africa’s liberation movement and his steadfast support for the release of Nelson Mandela.”</p>
<p>It is important that we recognize this accomplishment not only for its moral merits, but because it can teach us how Canadian foreign policy — for moral and instrumental ends — can be done effectively. There are three lessons to learn (or relearn). </p>
<h2>Lesson 1: Mulroney recognized apartheid as indefensible</h2>
<p>Mulroney’s opposition to apartheid was not driven by simple domestic politics and certainly not by diasporic concerns. Opposition to apartheid was widely held in Canada in the late 1980s and it was a live issue. But it was not one that obviously favoured Mulroney politically. So, why did he oppose it? </p>
<p>First, the issue was to him one of simple justice and morality. Like his early political mentor, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1771019570">John Diefenbaker</a>, he thought the system was indefensible and immoral. It could not be redeemed by instrumental appeals to anti-Communism or whatever other realpolitik defences <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/brian-mulroney-legacy-south-africa-apartheid-1.7130982">U.S. President Ronald Reagan or U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher</a> advanced. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/brian-mulroney-champion-of-free-trade-brought-canada-closer-to-the-u-s-during-his-reign-as-prime-minister-224852">Brian Mulroney, champion of free trade, brought Canada closer to the U.S. during his reign as prime minister</a>
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<p>Second, he thought it was contrary to Canadian values, which have their roots in the founding of the country as a place dedicated to bringing different groups closer together, rather than farther apart. To maintain Canada’s credibility in the world as a <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/middle-power">middle power</a>, Canada had to act in a way that was consistent with a system of values, and not simple power. </p>
<h2>Lesson 2: Mulroney leveraged political and personal power</h2>
<p>Mulroney was a master of the multilateral system. By the late 1980s, accelerating and amplifying pressure on apartheid South Africa required ever stronger and <a href="https://www.history.com/news/end-apartheid-steps">tighter sanctions</a>. This required as many nations as possible to agree to as strong a sanction regime as possible. </p>
<p>I had the opportunity to directly ask Mulroney about his international leadership in the campaign against apartheid. As director of the <a href="https://munkschool.utoronto.ca/event/conversation-rt-hon-brian-mulroney">Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy</a>, I hosted a conversation with Mulroney in September 2022. When I asked him how he used international institutions, Mulroney said:</p>
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<p>People who say that nations only have interests, no friendships, is nonsense. … Everybody has interests but also friendships. And you can’t deal at the international level with any hostility. You gotta try and bring people (together). Canada is a middle power. We’re not a superpower. So we have to leverage our assets as best we can.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The author of this article, Peter Loewen, in conversation with Brian Mulroney on Sept. 22, 2022, at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.</span></figcaption>
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<p>By 1987 and 1988, Mulroney had managed to secure the chairmanship of three international organizations covering the majority of the democratic world: The Commonwealth, the G7 and the Francophonie. In each of those organizations, he built personal ties with leaders, reinforced by a deep appreciation for their own domestic concerns and motivations. </p>
<p>When push came to shove on <a href="https://doi.org/10.3138/jcs.25.4.17">tightening sanction regimes,</a> he had both personal power and agenda-setting power. He could put apartheid on the agenda, and he could use the depth of relationships to push and pull leaders to his own position. We have not had a prime minister since who has combined institutional power and personal connection to such an effect. </p>
<h2>Lesson 3: Mulroney played a long game</h2>
<p>Mulroney played a long(ish) game. When South African President <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/02/11/world/south-africa-s-new-era-mandela-go-free-today-de-klerk-proclaims-ending-chapter.html">F.W. de Klerk announced in February 1990 the immediate release of Mandela from a prison</a> off the coast of Cape Town, he did not simultaneously agree to dismantle the laws enforcing apartheid. </p>
<p>Despite this, by Mulroney’s telling, he was under immediate and intense <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1986/07/14/thatcher-and-mulroney-clash-on-sanctions-against-s-africa/125f7806-a7f5-46aa-85ec-8f49f8c7f991/">pressure from Thatcher</a> to support the lifting of sanctions. Mulroney refused to do so until the system of racial separation in law was dismantled. </p>
<p>The broader context is important here. The Berlin Wall had fallen the year before and the world was experiencing a menacing uncertainty. Mulroney knew that the creation of a broader <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/664d7fa5-d575-45da-8129-095647c8abe7">rules-based order</a> with greater international security, more trade and more, not less, reconciliation depended deeply on defending democratic values. Those values had to be as deeply defended in South Africa as they were in a soon reunified Germany. They could not be abandoned as soon as attention moved elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Mulroney’s legacy</h2>
<p>We can arrive at different judgments of Mulroney’s legacy. To me, it is one marked by huge success and risky failures — but always an ambition to do big, consequential things. But in the final judgment, his confrontation of apartheid married moral clarity and effective politics. If only our politics had that same leadership again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Loewen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brian Mulroney’s role in the campaign against apartheid in South Africa can teach us how Canadian foreign policy can be done effectively.Peter Loewen, Director, Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248522024-03-01T02:39:56Z2024-03-01T02:39:56ZBrian Mulroney, champion of free trade, brought Canada closer to the U.S. during his reign as prime minister<p>Brian Mulroney — Canada’s 18th prime minister who has <a href="https://twitter.com/C_Mulroney/status/1763337379165934039">died at age 84</a> — will be remembered for many things, but his most significant decision during two terms in office was to link Canada’s future with the United States.</p>
<p>Unlike Pierre Trudeau, Canada’s Liberal prime minister <a href="https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/did-trudeau-say-worse-things-better-men/">who had a rocky relationship with several U.S. presidents</a> during the 1960s, ‘70s and '80s, Mulroney was an unabashed Americanophile. </p>
<p>After all, he <a href="https://www.tourismebaiecomeau.com/histoire?lang=en">grew up in Baie-Comeau</a>, Que., a town founded by a wealthy American industrialist — Robert Rutherford McCormick — to produce cheap newsprint for New York and Chicago papers. Mulroney would at times reminisce that as a child he sang songs for McCormick to earn small monetary rewards. </p>
<h2>Negotiated Free Trade Agreement</h2>
<p>Mulroney’s admiration for American capitalism was evident in his political polices. Within a year after being <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/brian-mulroney-wins-stunning-landslide-victory-in-1984-1.4675926">elected with a large majority in 1984</a>, Mulroney stated he wanted to negotiate a free trade agreement with the United States. </p>
<p>Shortly after that, Mulroney hosted then U.S. president Ronald Reagan for what was called the <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/history-through-our-eyes/history-through-our-eyes-march-17-1985-the-shamrock-summit">“Shamrock Summit”</a> in Québec City. The two leaders, both of whom were proud of their Irish heritage, took to the stage at the summit and famously launched into a rendition of <em>When Irish Eyes Are Smiling</em>.</p>
<p>While some Canadians may have cringed at the sight of the two men warbling together, Mulroney’s close relationship with Reagan was a political asset for the Progressive Conservative leader.</p>
<h2>A second majority</h2>
<p>Mulroney and Reagan signed the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement on Jan. 2, 1988. Mulroney campaigned on the deal during Canada’s general election in November of that year and won a second consecutive majority. Some international media outlets dubbed Mulroney “<a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/brian-mulroney-ex-canadian-pm-and-father-of-north-american-free-trade-ba03b008">the Father of North American Free Trade</a>” in stories about his death.</p>
<p>The Mulroney years marked the end of a two-decade reign by the Liberals under Lester Pearson, Trudeau and John Turner. Mulroney shifted Canadian policy to the right when he negotiated the Free Trade Agreement. Other controversial policies — the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/crown-corporation#Privatization">privatization of Crown corporations</a> like Air Canada and Petro-Canada, and the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/history-of-the-gst/article_1b750dd8-dab3-5292-adbb-76cb681df763.html">introduction of the goods and services tax (GST)</a> — would last and not be undone when the Liberals returned to power under Jean Chrétien in 1993.</p>
<p>Mulroney, more than any modern day prime minister, sought to atone for the actions of his predecessor Trudeau in constitutional reform.</p>
<p>Investing enormous political capital in the <a href="https://www.historymuseum.ca/blog/meech-lake-accord-fails/">Meech Lake Accord</a> and then the <a href="https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/2019/07/charlottetown-accord/">Charlottetown Accord</a>, Mulroney tried to increase the jurisdiction of the provinces, reform the Senate and recognize Québec as a distinct society. He wanted to extensively change the Constitution and correct what was not done, or in his view done poorly, in the patriation of the Constitution in 1982 and the introduction of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. </p>
<h2>Constitutional reforms failed</h2>
<p>After pitched battles across the nation, both accords failed to meet the constitutional bar for ratification. In fact, the collapse of the accords — which had raised expectations in Québec — revived Québec separatism and <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/mulroney-dismissed-bouchard-s-influence-as-meech-lake-accord-withered-records-1.1742812">led to the rise of the Bloc Québécois</a>.</p>
<p>The failure of the accords was a lesson subsequent prime ministers — Chrétien, Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau — took to heart. None has dared to even hint at any kind of constitutional reform.</p>
<p>When in power, Mulroney led the Progressive Conservatives. After retirement from politics, Mulroney never felt at home at the renamed Conservative Party of Canada that was born with the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/5-things/flashback-friday-on-this-day-in-2003-pcs-and-alliance-united-as-conservatives-1.2607589">merger of the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance in 2003</a>. </p>
<p>During one of his last major public events in June 2023, Mulroney sat on stage with Justin Trudeau at St. Francis Xavier University, the Nova Scotia institution from which Mulroney graduated. Mulroney <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/brian-mulroney-defends-trudeau-parliament-gossip-trash-1.6882315">praised the incumbent</a> to such an extent that Trudeau said: “It’s… embarrassing when you’re speaking about me in such glowing terms.” </p>
<p>Mulroney leaves a perplexing legacy. A charismatic politician who led his party to two majority governments. A prime minister who made major and lasting changes to Canada’s economy. A successful business leader before and after his years in politics. </p>
<p>Yet, he was also a prime minister who failed to bring in constitutional reforms that seemed within his grasp and a leader who unleashed political turmoil in his home province that has had a lasting impact on the Canadian political landscape decades after he left office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224852/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The death of former Canadian prime minister Brian Mulroney will lead to a wide examination of his legacy. A lasting policy of the Mulroney regime is free trade with the United States.Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245812024-02-28T22:31:32Z2024-02-28T22:31:32ZHow climate change is messing up the ocean’s biological clock, with unknown long-term consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578761/original/file-20240228-30-1ljbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3199%2C2400&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A satellite image of a phytoplankton bloom off the coast of St. John's, N.L.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(NASA, MODIS Rapid Response)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year in the <a href="https://www.ncesc.com/geographic-faq/what-is-the-middle-and-lower-latitude/">mid-latitudes</a> of the planet, a peculiar phenomenon known as the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Phytoplankton">phytoplankton</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13858">spring bloom</a> occurs. Visible from space, spectacular large and ephemeral filament-like shades of green and blue are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052756">shaped by the ocean currents</a>.</p>
<p>The phytoplankton blooms are comprised of a myriad of microscopic algae cells growing and accumulating at the ocean’s surface as a result of the onset of longer days and fewer storms — often associated with the move into spring.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-induced-stress-is-altering-fish-hormones-with-huge-repercussions-for-reproduction-213140">How climate change-induced stress is altering fish hormones — with huge repercussions for reproduction</a>
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<p>The timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom is, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13886">likely to be altered</a> in response to climate change. Changes which will affect — for good or ill — the many species that are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-052913-021325">ecologically adapted</a> to benefit from the enhanced feeding opportunity that blooms represent at crucial stages of their development.</p>
<h2>Fine-tuned ecological adaptation</h2>
<p>Phytoplankton blooms are, in some aspects, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14650">metronomes of the annual oceanic cycles</a> around which many species’ biological clocks are synced to.</p>
<p>One example is the zooplankton <a href="https://zooplankton.nl/en/diversity/copepods/"><em>Calanus finmarchicus</em></a>, a class of micro-organism only capable of swimming up and down through the water column. <em>Calanus finmarchicus</em> usually spend the winter in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060505">diapause</a> — the marine version of hibernation — surviving on their accumulated energy reserves in the deep ocean. At the moment they deem appropriate in the spring, they raise from the abyss to graze on the bloom and reproduce.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image of a Calanoid Copepod." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An image of an individual in the Calanoid Copepod group. The Calanoid Copepod is one of three groups of animals within the general category of Copepods, encompassing around 10,000 species. The Calanus finmarchicus is a member of the Calanoid Copepods group.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Fish and shellfish, too, are adapted to this natural metronome. </p>
<p>For some species, such as shrimp, females strategically lay their eggs in the water in advance of these blooms so their young will have ample food supplies from the moment they hatch</p>
<p>As incredible as it seems, some species can “calculate” the egg incubation period so that eggs hatch on average <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1173951">within a week</a> of the expected spring bloom.</p>
<h2>A question of timing</h2>
<p>This, unfortunately, is where climate change is entering into the equation. What was normal in the past may well be changing more rapidly than marine species can adapt. </p>
<p>Zooplankton and fish larvae constitutes the bulk of what ocean scientists call secondary production. Secondary production is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/f2012-050">key trophic level</a> that links primary production (the phytoplankton using the sun’s light to produce biomass) and higher trophic levels, such as fish and marine mammals.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite image of a phytoplankton bloom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A massive phytoplankton bloom seen off the Northern coast of Norway. Phytoplankton blooms can reach thousands of square kilometres in size.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(ESA, Envisat Pillars)</span></span>
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<p>This grand relationship is known as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.08.010">trophic cascade</a>, as the zooplankton are eaten by the small fish and the small fish, in turn, are eaten by the bigger fish. A whole ecosystem beating on a clock largely determined by the timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom, hopefully in sync with the biological clocks of other species.</p>
<p>Any change to the timing of the spring bloom, for example as a result of climate change, can potentially have catastrophic consequences for the survival of zooplankton populations alongside the fishes and ecosystems which rely upon this abundant foodstuff. </p>
<p>This theory is known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2881(08)60202-3">match/mismatch hypothesis</a> and postulates that the consumer’s energy demand should “match” the peak resource availability</p>
<h2>A new understanding</h2>
<p>On the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf in the Northwest Atlantic, the spring bloom <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20102">generally starts</a> earlier in the south (mid-March on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland) and later in the north (late April on the southern Labrador shelf).</p>
<p>The south-to-north progression of the bloom was long believed to be related to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbm035">annual retreat of sea ice</a> in the region.
But with the duration and spatial extent of the sea ice season being <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/mpo-dfo/Fs97-6-3544-eng.pdf">dramatically reduced</a> in Atlantic Canada over the recent years, the relationship between sea ice and the timing of the bloom weakened.</p>
<p>I — alongside a team of researchers from across Canada — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10347">proposed a new theory</a> to explain the initiation of the spring bloom on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf. </p>
<p>Our theory points to transition from winter to spring as being key to trigger the bloom. In winter, cold and stormy conditions keep the ocean well mixed. However, the arrival of spring brings calmer winds and warming temperatures — coupled with increased freshwater flows. These conditions cause the ocean to reorganize into layers of different density — a phenomenon called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbv021">re-stratification</a>.</p>
<p>Re-stratification effectively prevents the phytoplankton cells of the upper layers from becoming easily mixed in the maelstrom of oceanic forces.
Their accumulation at the ocean’s surface creates the bloom.</p>
<p>This new mechanism successfully predicts the timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom over more than two decades. It also allows us to better understand the impacts that climate change is having upon our oceans.</p>
<h2>Ecological significance</h2>
<p>Located at the confluence of sub-arctic and sub-tropical ocean currents, the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf is naturally subjected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1807-2021">large fluctuations</a> of its climate, with impacts on the timing of the bloom.</p>
<p>Our study has shown that a warmer climate is associated with earlier re-stratification, earlier phytoplankton blooms and a higher abundance of key zooplankton species such as <em>Calanus finmarchicus</em> in the region.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-further-reducing-fish-stocks-with-worrisome-implications-for-global-food-supplies-217428">Climate change is further reducing fish stocks with worrisome implications for global food supplies</a>
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<p>This discovery opens the door to a better understanding of bloom dynamics and the oceanic conditions driving the health of the ecosystem.</p>
<p>The good news for a cold region such as the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf is that a warmer climate with milder springs, like the ones we have <a href="https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ResDocs-DocRech/2022/2022_040-eng.html">seen in recent years</a>, will lead to more and more abundant levels of phytoplankton — with clear benefits to ecosystem productivity. </p>
<p>However, for how long these changes will remain positive in a changing climate we cannot say.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frédéric Cyr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent research sheds light on the ocean’s annual ‘biological clock’ and highlights the key dynamics that make it susceptible to climate change.Frédéric Cyr, Adjunct Professor, Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of NewfoundlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229422024-02-26T20:42:20Z2024-02-26T20:42:20ZTo collaborate or confront? New research provides key insights for environmental NGOs<p>Just after dawn, volunteers for a Toronto-based NGO called the <a href="https://flap.org/">Fatal Light Awareness Program (FLAP) Canada</a> make their way along the streets of the city’s downtown core. FLAP’s mission is to limit the number of migratory birds injured or killed due to collisions with windows. These volunteers are looking for dead or injured birds that fell to the ground after hitting windows during the spring and fall migrations.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://doi.org/10.5751/ACE-00568-080206">estimated 15-30 million birds</a> in Canada alone are killed each year after hitting a window. Migratory bird populations have <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaw1313">dropped significantly</a> in the last 50 years, with window collisions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054133">identified as a main cause</a>. However collisions, can only be reduced if building owners agree, or are obliged, to make glassed surfaces less dangerous to birds.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/buildings-kill-millions-of-birds-heres-how-to-reduce-the-toll-130695">Buildings kill millions of birds. Here's how to reduce the toll</a>
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<p>To achieve change, NGOs have two choices: confront stakeholders, or collaborate with them. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. </p>
<p>Highlighting guilty parties, especially through the media, can raise awareness and make responses more likely. But aggressive approaches risk closing off opportunities to work together on solutions. Working with stakeholders may achieve mutually acceptable solutions and funding, but NGO priorities may be watered down as a result.</p>
<h2>Collaboration?</h2>
<p>How does an NGO choose between collaboration and confrontation to achieve its goals? <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2023.103885">My recent study used FLAP as a case study to help explore this critical question</a>.</p>
<p>Over three decades, FLAP has continued rescue and recovery operations to assist birds who have struck windows while also continuing advocacy work to push for meaningful change to reduce the risks posed by the windows themselves. Windows are often either <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224164">invisible to birds, or reflect nearby vegetation</a>.</p>
<p>FLAP, like many global NGOs, can often find itself in a delicate position of having to measure its calls for change with the reality of maintaining ongoing collaboration with stakeholders to carry out their core activities. For example, FLAP depends on access to the grounds around office towers to collect birds, so it was hesitant to publicly confront individual building owners. </p>
<p>Collaboration with stakeholders ensures both that FLAP volunteers are welcome to patrol and property managers also encouraged maintenance staff to store dead or injured birds they found. This collaboration had clear benefits.</p>
<p>Instead of targeting specific building owners or property companies, FLAP has largely focused on raising general awareness about the overall scale of bird injuries and deaths due to windows. Since 2001, FLAP has held an <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/pattern-made-2100-dead-birds-180958379/">annual public layout</a> of all of the dead birds collected by volunteers, <a href="https://flap.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Touching-Down-Spring-2023.pdf">with 4023</a> dead birds displayed in the 2023 layout. </p>
<p>Data about the location, time of collision and species of bird has also been recorded in a publicly available <a href="https://www.birdmapper.org/">database</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, FLAP has worked with municipal and commercial stakeholders, in developing <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/planning-development/official-plan-guidelines/design-guidelines/bird-friendly-guidelines/">best practices</a> for limiting bird-window collisions. These guidelines eventually became part of the <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/planning-development/official-plan-guidelines/toronto-green-standard/">Toronto Green Standard</a>, which included building specifications — voluntary at first, later mandatory — designed to limit bird collisions. </p>
<p>These requirements include making windows more visible to birds by applying markers, as well as reducing other hazards, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-can-help-migrating-birds-on-their-way-by-planting-more-trees-and-turning-lights-off-at-night-152573">artificial lighting</a>.</p>
<h2>Or a more assertive approach?</h2>
<p>Despite advances in awareness and policy, bird safety advocates were still frustrated with the toll on birds by existing buildings, which were not bound by the <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/planning-development/official-plan-guidelines/toronto-green-standard/toronto-green-standard-version-4/mid-to-high-rise-residential-non-residential-version-4/ecology-biodiversity/">new standards</a>. While FLAP still took a largely collaborative approach, other organizations took more assertive stances. </p>
<p>Ecojustice, an environmental law NGO, became aware of the issue in part because of FLAP’s annual bird layout. Using FLAP’s bird collision data, Ecojustice brought legal action against the owners of two buildings where particularly high collision numbers had been recorded.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-of-birds-collide-with-glass-buildings-but-architecture-has-solutions-215419">Billions of birds collide with glass buildings – but architecture has solutions</a>
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<p>The first court case <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/building-owners-not-responsible-for-deaths-of-birds-that-fly-into-it-judge-rules/article_7b6bad05-57b0-54a2-861d-158a585b1ead.html#:%7E:text=GTA-,Building%20owners%20not%20responsible%20for%20deaths%20of%20birds%20that%20fly,birds%20before%20applying%20remedial%20measures.">was dismissed</a> in 2012. However, during deliberations, the property owners did make changes to the windows to reduce bird collisions by installing window markers. Confrontation, it seems, could also yield results. </p>
<p>However, the second case brought by Ecojustice in 2013 was against a property owner that had a history of collaboration with FLAP, contributing to guideline development, providing funding and even receiving a “Bird Friendly Building” Certificate from FLAP.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://canlii.ca/en/on/oncj/doc/2013/2013oncj65/2013oncj65.html">ruling</a> in 2013 had mixed results for both sides. The judge ruled in favour of Ecojustice’s <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/birds-vs-mirrored-buildings-environmental-group-loses-case-but-wins-important-precedent/article_fb9c447e-a67c-50ae-aebc-2918ac5499ac.html">novel argument</a> that light, in the form of reflected vegetation, was a form of pollution. However, the judge also concluded that the property owners had exercised reasonable care in trying to reduce bird collisions by installing window film in areas with the highest recorded collisions. Unfortunately the collaborative relationship was also affected. </p>
<p>Following the ruling, the property owner informed FLAP that its volunteers were no longer allowed on their properties unless FLAP agreed to keep bird collision data confidential, which they did not agree to do.</p>
<h2>Key lessons</h2>
<p>FLAP has taken a mostly collaborative approach, allowing them to rescue birds and create a rigorous collision dataset. This information has contributed to new building codes, as well as prompting changes in older buildings with high collision rates. Confrontation, while rare, occurred only after collaboration did not achieve desired results.</p>
<p>Visual messages, like FLAP’s bird layout, can communicate the scale of the problem and reach a broad audience. This message can be all the more effective when people see a role in the solution, rather than feeling like helpless spectators. Collision reduction options have become <a href="https://flap.org/stop-birds-from-hitting-windows">widely available</a>, giving people a sense of agency.</p>
<p>Strong data and visual images can also attract allies who may take more direct approaches. For example, the NGO <a href="https://www.nevercollide.com/">Never Collide</a> formed in 2019 to address bird collisions in older office buildings. It used FLAP’s data to single out buildings for direct confrontation, through letter writing and shareholder pressure. One of their early victories was in 2021, when the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-countermeasures-being-installed-at-td-centre-to-reduce-bird-building/">largest bird safe retrofit in North America was installed in downtown Toronto</a>, on one of the buildings that FLAP volunteers had previously been barred from patrolling. </p>
<p>These are important lessons for building upon success in the long term.</p>
<p>In the meantime, volunteers in Toronto and other cities like <a href="https://safewings.ca/">Ottawa</a>, <a href="https://www.nycaudubon.org/our-work/conservation/project-safe-flight/collision-monitoring">New York</a> and <a href="https://www.birdmonitors.net/">Chicago</a> will be patrolling again this spring, as migrating birds return.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222942/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Abbott is affiliated with FLAP as a volunteer.</span></em></p>The experiences of bird safety NGOs show that when trying to achieve environmental goals, being on good terms with stakeholders is important, but direct action can also yield results.James Abbott, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Nipissing UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2242202024-02-25T14:20:26Z2024-02-25T14:20:26ZHere’s what we can learn from Canada’s response to inflation in the 1980s and 1990s<p>For the last two years, inflation has been at top of mind for Canadians. It is a tax on households. When prices rise, <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/08/understanding-inflation">the purchasing power of each dollar earned falls</a>.</p>
<p>This generates huge losses for the economy, as well as households on fixed incomes, and increases uncertainty, making it more difficult to plan for the future.</p>
<p>The real question in the minds of many economists is what the trend in inflation will be going forward, and when interest rates will begin to fall and bring relief to Canadians.</p>
<p>While this episode of inflation has created challenges for many, this is not the first time Canada has gone through such an experience; we have been here before.</p>
<h2>Inflation in the 1980s and 1990s</h2>
<p>Canada faced a serious inflation problem in the 1980s and 1990s when the consumer price inflation (CPI) index hit <a href="https://economics.td.com/ca-inflation-new-vintage">13 per cent in 1980 and was still at seven per cent in 1991</a>. </p>
<p>To solve this issue, in 1991, the Bank of Canada and the Minister of Finance agreed on a plan <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/agreement-inflation-control-target/">to bring inflation down to a target level</a>. Initially, this was six per cent, but this was lowered to two per cent (within a one to three per cent range).</p>
<p>The Bank of Canada <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/04/understanding-policy-interest-rate">uses the overnight rate to control inflation</a>. This rate determines the rates of government treasury bills, the bank rate and variable rate mortgages. </p>
<p>In August 1981, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/archive/ca/entry/high-interest-rates-canada-economy_ca_5fe4d080c5b66809cb30a445">the Bank of Canada pushed this rate to well over 20 per cent</a> — equivalent to a variable rate mortgage cost today of almost 23 per cent. In May 1990, the central bank increased the rate to almost 14 per cent. In both cases, the central bank brought inflation down, <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/recession">but at the cost of a serious economic slowdown</a>. </p>
<h2>The pandemic fuelled inflation</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/canada-expected-renew-policy-framework-amid-concerns-about-rising-inflation-2021-12-13">inflation target was most recently renewed in December 2021</a>. It was remarkably effective until summer 2021, when inflation exceeded the three per cent range and <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220720/dq220720a-eng.htm">peaked at over eight per cent in June 2022</a>.</p>
<p>The root cause of this inflation was not domestic like it had been in the 1990s. Rather, it was in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/inflation-stats-usa-and-world">all major Western economies</a>. </p>
<p>Canada was not alone in increasing its debt so citizens could stay home and limit the spread of infection. The Bank of Canada <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/05/our-policy-actions-in-the-time-of-covid-19/">lowered the overnight rate to 0.25 per cent</a> and intervened massively to <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/08/our-covid-19-response-large-scale-asset-purchases/">buy the government’s debt</a>.</p>
<p>Initially, <a href="https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/proof-point-fewer-supply-chain-snarls-wont-be-enough-to-lower-inflation-to-2/">it was believed these inflation increases would reverse as supply chain challenges resolved</a>, so <a href="https://amp.cbc.ca/embed/index.html?preview=0&embed_type=customhtml&content_id=1.6807771&position=0&api=prod">central banks were slow to react</a>.</p>
<p>But this assumption proved false. As the pandemic receded, Canadians began spending <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadians-savings-stockpile-is-a-300-billion-quandary-for-the">the money they had stored away during lockdowns</a>. With low interest rates, the prices of assets like houses and shares dramatically increased. The Russian invasion of Ukraine <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-effect-of-the-war-in-ukraine-on-global-activity-and-inflation-20220527.html">added another economic shock</a>. </p>
<p>By this point, high inflation had started to become entrenched in the expectations of businesses, unions and individuals. As history shows, once inflation becomes entrenched in the economy, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/10/04/how-managing-inflation-expectations-can-help-economies-achieve-a-softer-landing">it is very difficult to reverse</a>.</p>
<h2>Taming inflation</h2>
<p>The Bank of Canada, although slow to react, successfully reversed the increasing inflation trend with <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/topics/bank-of-canada">10 interest rate increases between March 2022 and July 2023</a> and by increasing the overnight rate to five per cent.</p>
<p>Inflation fell to 3.1 per cent in <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231121/dq231121a-eng.htm">October</a> and <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231219/dq231219a-eng.htm">November 2023</a>, creating optimism about returning to levels that would assure the Bank of Canada that inflation had been tamed.</p>
<p>Despite core inflation remaining stubbornly above three per cent, this relative success allowed the central bank to hold the overnight rate at five per cent, increasing the possibility of lower interest rates. </p>
<p>This confidence was confirmed with the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-january-2024-1.7119796">January CPI coming in at 2.9 per cent</a>, just inside the Bank of Canada’s operating band.</p>
<p>It’s clear that central banks must act as soon as they can to prevent inflationary expectations from becoming entrenched in the economy. Once entrenched, the economy ends up bearing significant pain to reverse it — pain that is not spread evenly across the population.</p>
<h2>Food and shelter costs</h2>
<p>Interest rates and inflation are inextricably linked and they affect households in different ways. The CPI measures the rate of inflation on a basket of goods, but not all households consume every good in the basket, and not all prices increase at the same rate. Therefore, the impact of inflation varies across groups.</p>
<p>Younger, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2023001/article/00002-eng.htm">poorer households spend a disproportionately large portion of their income on food</a>, which has seen major price increases over the last two years. Similarly, those commuting from the outskirts of metropolitan areas faced higher commuting costs when gasoline prices spiked. </p>
<p>However, the biggest anomaly is in housing costs, where increasing interest rates designed to lower inflation automatically <a href="https://www.cpacanada.ca/news/pivot-magazine/2022-02-16-housing-market">translate into higher rental costs and imputed housing costs</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-thirds-of-canadian-and-american-renters-are-in-unaffordable-housing-situations-221954">Two-thirds of Canadian and American renters are in unaffordable housing situations</a>
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<p>In its January 2024 CPI report, Statistics Canada reported that rental costs increased by 6.2 per cent year over year, while food price inflation was still up 3.9 per cent. </p>
<p>Together food and shelter costs amount to 45 per cent of the CPI, but younger, poorer households have disproportionately suffered because their price index is skewed more toward food and shelter. </p>
<h2>A waiting game</h2>
<p>The impact of higher interest rates in Canada’s mortgage market depends critically on the maturity of someone’s mortgage and rent controls.</p>
<p>Many households with variable rate mortgages, or those renewing mortgages during this period of high interest rates, <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-the-bank-of-canadas-interest-rate-hike-to-5-will-impact-canadian-households-209369">are struggling with significantly higher mortgage payments</a>.</p>
<p>Additionally, those who know they will have to renew their mortgage in the coming year are taking steps to adjust to those increases. </p>
<p>In fact, approximately 20 per cent of mortgages held by some of Canada’s biggest banks are negatively amortized, meaning homeowner payments do not cover the monthly interest charges. So, each month, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-mortgage-borrowers-td-bmo-cibc-homeowners">the amount owed on the mortgage increases</a>. Needless to say, many are urgently hoping for interest rate reductions in 2024.</p>
<p>Right now, the Bank of Canada is waiting to see what happens to inflation in the coming months before deciding whether to hold the overnight rate where it is, decrease it or increase it. This decision hinges on whether it feels the underlying or core rate of inflation aligns with its target zone. </p>
<p>The central bank is well aware that signalling a reduction too early could feed into greater consumer spending and higher inflation. So interest rates could stay where they are for several more months. While shelter and food price inflation will moderate, don’t expect actual prices to revert back to pre-pandemic levels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224220/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The real question in the minds of many economists is what the trend in inflation will be going forward, and when interest rates will begin to fall and bring relief to Canadians.Walid Hejazi, Professor of International Business, Rotman School of Management, University of TorontoLaurence Booth, Professor, Rotman School of Management, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210852024-02-22T20:50:27Z2024-02-22T20:50:27ZHow advanced genetic testing can be used to combat the illegal timber trade<p>According to <a href="https://www.interpol.int/Crimes/Environmental-crime/Forestry-crime">Interpol</a>, the organization dedicated to facilitating international police co-operation, between 15 per cent and 30 per cent of the world’s traded timber comes from illegal sources. This is an estimated annual value of US$51-152 billion dollars. </p>
<p>Illegal logging has serious consequences for the environment, the climate and the local livelihoods of the people who depend upon the affected forests. In turn, local governments are faced with losses in revenue, rising corruption and decreasing timber prices. These make it even more difficult for the legal forestry sector to remain competitive. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/illegal-logging-in-africa-is-a-threat-to-security-202291">Illegal logging in Africa is a threat to security</a>
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<p>Even in Canada, customers are unwittingly supporting this theft by buying timber with false declarations. In the face of such issues, Canadian researchers are currently developing a <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.891853/publication.html">traceability system</a> employing genomic identification technologies to help tackle the trade in illegal timber. </p>
<h2>Stemming the flow</h2>
<p>To help address poaching, the United States expanded the pre-existing <a href="https://www.fws.gov/law/lacey-act">Lacey Act in 2008</a>. Originally designed to control the illegal trade of <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/lacey-acts-effectiveness">wildlife</a>, it was adapted to help tackle the trade in illegally harvested wood. The 2008 amendments to the Lacey Act decreased the importation of illegally harvested wood into the U.S. by approximately 32 to 44 per cent. </p>
<p>In Canada, similar regulations have been put in place to avoid the exploitation of species at risk including the <a href="https://www.laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/W-8.5/index.html">Wild Animal and Plant Protection and Regulation of International and Interprovincial Trade Act</a>. But how do we know if the declarations of a wood product are accurate or correctly reported? </p>
<p>In general, identification methods can be categorized into three groups: anatomical, analytical or molecular biological techniques — each with its <a href="https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21518.79689">own set of advantages and limitations</a>. </p>
<p>Identification methods which use the aid of <a href="https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.21.00067">microscope technology</a> look for distinct characteristics of the wood anatomy including tissues and cells. It is also the group of methods most commonly used.</p>
<p>However, this method requires trained specialists, the appropriate equipment and can typically only provide meaningful conclusions at the <a href="https://www.biologyonline.com/dictionary/genus">genus level</a>. In addition, wood anatomy cannot tell us where a piece of wood comes from. </p>
<h2>Looking to genetics</h2>
<p>This is where genomics come into play. To determine the species identity and the geographic origin of a logged tree, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/35016000">researchers take advantage of evolution</a>. </p>
<p>A few key factors make genetic identification possible. </p>
<p>Firstly, there are clear genetic differences between distinct <em><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2771874/#:%7E:text=We%20define%20a%20genetic%20species,from%20the%20Biological%20Species%20Concept.">species</a></em>. Secondly, the closer the relationship between individuals — in this case trees — the more genetically similar they are, while the more removed the individuals are the less genetic information is shared.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is possible to assign an individual to a “local population” based on its genetic fingerprint, sharing parts of its genetic makeup with that population and, consequently, <a href="https://pubs.cif-ifc.org/doi/abs/10.5558/tfc2018-010">also the specific region where it originates from</a>. This method is called population genetics. </p>
<p>The power of population genetics lies in its ability to identify groups of individuals that share a certain amount of genetic information that can be used to assign individuals to a species or a geographic region. The same methods can be used for humans to find unknown relatives or trace back the ethnic origin of your ancestors. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weakening-australias-illegal-logging-laws-would-undermine-the-global-push-to-halt-forest-loss-172770">Weakening Australia's illegal logging laws would undermine the global push to halt forest loss</a>
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<p>To reliably assign individuals, a variety of genetic markers is needed, varying between species and local populations. </p>
<p>In Canada, the first successful use of genetic material to conduct forensic testing on trees was pioneered by geneticist Eleanor White who succeeded in <a href="https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/5177.pdf">tracing a wood log directly to the specific stump of an 800-year-old cedar tree in Western Canada</a> left behind after its illegal felling.</p>
<p>White’s success demonstrates the power of genomic identification in regulating the timber trade.</p>
<h2>Developing new systems</h2>
<p>Genomic sequencing in combination with genetic data analyses gained public traction during the COVID-19 pandemic, as these were used to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18314-x">identify an outbreak of a new virus variant and trace its origin</a>.</p>
<p>Current research in wood forensics is using similar tools to assign an individual to a source population with high accuracy. Since genetic analyses can be costly, genetic databases of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10297">previously studied species</a> are compiled and used as test data to determine the best and most reliable analytical method.</p>
<p>The aim is to create a simple traceability system for timber products that border officials can implement quickly and easily. This should help stop the sale of illegally harvested timber and hold those responsible to account. </p>
<p>The long-term goal is to make it more difficult to sell illegally harvested timber in Canada and thus contribute to the protection of valuable forests. In addition, traceability can certify areas in Canada which are sustainably managed, making it easier for consumers to support sustainable forest management practices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Zacharias receives funding from Génome Québec. </span></em></p>Effective use of genomic identification could revolutionize the control of the illegal timber trade.Melanie Zacharias, Postdoctoral researcher in forest genetics, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239422024-02-22T18:48:25Z2024-02-22T18:48:25ZWhat does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?<p>Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-says-he-would-encourage-russia-to-do-whatever-the-hell-they-want-to-any-nato-country-that-doesn-t-pay-enough-1.6764435">recent candid admission</a> that he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members shirking their alliance commitments predictably dominated the news cycle for several days.</p>
<p>What this veiled threat means to <a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeau-and-nato-the-problem-with-canadian-defence-isnt-cash-its-culture-204252">Canada, which perpetually fails to meet NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence</a>, is uncertain — but certainly worrisome.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeau-and-nato-the-problem-with-canadian-defence-isnt-cash-its-culture-204252">Justin Trudeau and NATO: The problem with Canadian defence isn’t cash, it's culture</a>
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<p>Even a potential Pierre Poilievre government would only <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/poilievre-says-he-would-cut-wasteful-foreign-aid-work-towards-nato-spending-target-1.6770426">“work towards”</a> meeting the target. Poilievre’s simultaneous <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-politics-briefing-too-early-to-say-how-conservatives-would-balance/">commitment to balancing the budget</a> suggests that any substantial spending increases on the Canadian Armed Forces are unlikely.</p>
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<h2>Unilateralism, not isolationism</h2>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/14/trump-foreign-policy-advisers-nato-remarks-00141287">some Republican</a> efforts <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4475656-graham-responds-to-trump-nato-comments-if-you-dont-pay-you-get-kicked-out/">to calm</a> the waters churned up by former president Trump, a <a href="https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/majority-trump-republicans-prefer-united-states-stay-out-world?utm_source=media&utm_campaign=ccs&utm_medium=atlantic">recent survey</a> conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights the decreasing Republican appetite for foreign commitments.</p>
<p>It found that a majority of “Trump Republicans” would prefer the United States was less involved in global affairs. Findings like this <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/opinion/gop-senate-ukraine-aid.html">predictably inspire</a> headlines about <a href="https://bnnbreaking.com/politics/the-resurgence-of-isolationism-in-us-politics-shadows-over-foreign-policy">American isolationism</a>. The <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-stalled-u-s-aid-for-ukraine-exemplifies-gops-softening-stance-on-russia">recent stalled funding for Ukraine</a> in the U.S. Congress reflects this development. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2017-01-20/jacksonian-revolt">According to historian Walter Russell Meade</a>, Trump pursued a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957209368">classical “Jacksonian” approach to governance</a> during his presidency: a minimalist government that aims “to fulfil the country’s destiny by looking after the physical security and economic well-being of the American people in their national home, and to do that while interfering as little as possible with the individual freedoms that makes the country unique.” </p>
<p>However, this approach is <a href="https://notesonliberty.com/2017/04/11/unilateralism-is-not-isolationism/">less about “isolationism” than it is “unilateralism</a>.” It’s in keeping with what Trump announced in his 2017 <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf">“America First” national security strategy</a> and later re-emphasized in his <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-74th-session-united-nations-general-assembly/">2019 address to the United Nations General Assembly</a> — U.S. domination unshackled by having to work with others.</p>
<p>This is evident in the Chicago poll finding that “half of Trump Republicans (48 per cent) say the U.S. should be <em>the dominant</em> world leader, while a majority of non-Trump Republicans (65 per cent) say the country should play a <em>shared leadership</em> role.” In essence, Jacksonians see no value in working with foreigners because that curtails America’s ability to make decisions solely in its own interests.</p>
<h2>What would the end of NATO mean?</h2>
<p>A bipartisan bill in the U.S. Senate passed in late 2023 <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/">prohibits a unilateral presidential withdrawal from NATO</a> without a two-thirds Senate majority or a specific act of Congress. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/">an American president could easily hobble NATO</a> by withdrawing Europe-based U.S. troops, forgoing active participation in NATO exercises and, more generally, by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nato-speech-article-5-2017-6">raising doubts about the sanctity of Article 5 of the NATO treaty</a>, which essentially assures collective defence if any member is attacked.</p>
<p>The end of NATO would mark the destruction of the post-Second World War international system and a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2538540">return to a balance-of-power arrangement</a>. In such a world, the largest powers would dictate the structures and rules under which their regional spheres of influence would be governed, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine">regardless of the wishes of the citizens of those sovereign nations</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-is-already-flustering-foreign-leaders-who-are-trying-to-prepare-for-a-possible-presidency-223767">Donald Trump is already flustering foreign leaders who are trying to prepare for a possible presidency</a>
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<p>What would this mean for Canada as part of the American sphere? While <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CAN/Year/LTST/Summarytext">most of Canada’s trade flows south</a> rather than across oceans — and although the collapse of the post-war multilateral system of relationships would normally be a disaster for a medium-sized trading nation like Canada — it would nonetheless probably be able to weather the storm thanks to its close attachment to the U.S. </p>
<p>But lacking the resources of a great power, countries like Canada rely on established norms, rules and institutions to make the world predictable and stable. These concepts are at significant risk when the great powers start acting unilaterally.</p>
<p>Remaining trans-Atlantic relationships would be of little strategic value to Canada in the face of American abuses of power. Its allies would be of no assistance in remediating <a href="https://www.britannica.com/money/mercantilism">mercantilistic behaviour</a> from the United States. Canadian governments have never been able to shift our national economy <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/free-trade-20/has-north-american-integration-resulted-in-canada-becoming-too-dependent-on-the-united-states/">away from the pull of the U.S. market</a>, and it would be increasingly impossible to do so if NATO no longer existed.</p>
<p>The worst outcome, in fact, would be the strategic confinement of Canada to the North American continent.</p>
<h2>Special relationship on life support</h2>
<p>The “special relationship” Canada once enjoyed with the U.S. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/what-special-relationship-canada-grimaces-amid-hail-us-trade-blows-2021-06-22/">has largely disappeared</a>, save for a residual sense of <a href="https://today.yougov.com/travel/articles/24068-what-america-thinks-canada-might-surprise-you">good will Americans typically reserve for Canada</a>. The Trump administration demonstrated that <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/fr/magazines/may-2020/rethinking-the-canada-us-relationship-after-the-pandemic/">no such bonhomie existed, and furthermore treated Canada with zero-sum precision</a> in its economic policies.</p>
<p>Still, the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/congress-executive-and-intermestic-affairs-three-proposals">complex and intertwined relationship</a> between the U.S. and Canada <a href="https://www.policymagazine.ca/the-hidden-wiring-of-the-canada-us-relationship/">would be difficult to disentangle</a>, and doing so wouldn’t be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2018.1542604">painless for the Americans, either</a>. The depth of the cross-border relationship might be its best defence against efforts to undo it. </p>
<p>But Canadians should not expect to be exempt from the growing mistrust within America, especially in the event of a second Trump presidency.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canada-shouldnt-always-count-on-special-treatment-from-the-u-s-93235">Why Canada shouldn't always count on special treatment from the U.S.</a>
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<p>The security of the northern border <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/republican-presidential-candidates-turn-attention-to-border-with-canada-1.6739098">continues to arouse suspicion</a>. <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/u-s-officials-say-no-indication-rainbow-bridge-vehicle-explosion-was-terrorist-attack-after-canadian-caution-1.6656266">A car accident late last year near the Niagara Falls Rainbow Bridge</a> quickly raised fears of lax Canadian border controls <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2023/11/23/some-were-quick-to-blame-terrorism-and-canada-after-fatal-rainbow-bridge-border-explosion/">by some American commentators</a>, even though those concerns turned out to be baseless. </p>
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<p>The Greek general Thucydides famously observed that “<a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191866692.001.0001/q-oro-ed6-00010932#:%7E:text=Thucydides%20c.&text=I%20have%20written%20my%20work,a%20possession%20for%20all%20time.&text=The%20strong%20do%20what%20they,weak%20suffer%20what%20they%20must.&text=Of%20the%20gods%20we%20believe,they%20rule%20wherever%20they%20can.">the strong do what they can and the weak suffer as they must</a>.” </p>
<p>An increasingly unilateral America under Trump will be far more predatory towards both Canada and Mexico. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-would-canada-approach-the-prospect-of-war-181106">Canada’s relative geographic isolation from the world</a>, which historically has kept the country remarkably secure, <a href="https://www.libraryjournal.com/review/canada-alone-navigating-the-postamerican-world-1800371">could then become something of a prison</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223942/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul T. Mitchell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada relies on established norms, rules and institutions to make the world stable. These concepts would be a great risk if Donald Trump made good on threats to disregard NATO.Paul T. Mitchell, Professor of Defence Studies, Canadian Forces CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223292024-02-20T22:35:26Z2024-02-20T22:35:26ZHow global warming is reshaping winter life in Canada<p>As we begin to emerge out of yet another mild winter, Canadians are once again being reminded of just how acutely global warming has changed Canada’s winter climate. </p>
<p>The impacts of this mild winter were felt across the country and touched all aspects of winter culture. From <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-winter-carnival-closes-palais-de-bonhomme-due-to-warm-weather-1.6764453">melting ice castles at Québec’s winter carnival</a>, to a dismal lack of snow at <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-ski-resorts-struggle-with-lack-of-snow-as-warm-weather-persists/">many Western Canada ski resorts</a>, seemingly no part of Canada was unaffected. But the change that will likely be felt most keenly by many Canadians is the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014028">loss of a reliable outdoor skating season</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion-218019">COP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion</a>
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<p>For the second year running, <a href="https://ncc-ccn.gc.ca/places/rideau-canal-skateway">Ottawa’s Rideau Canal Skateway</a> was closed for what should be the peak of the skating season. In 2022-2023, the Skateway did not open at all for the first time ever. This winter, a portion of the Skateway opened briefly in January, but continuing mild temperatures forced a closure again after only four days of skating. In Montréal, <a href="https://www.patinermontreal.ca/f/paysagee/patin-libre/sports-dequipe">fewer than 40 per cent of the city’s outdoor rinks were open</a> in the middle of February.</p>
<p>There is no obvious upside to this story. Outdoor skating in Canada is fast becoming the latest casualty of our failure to confront the reality of the climate crisis.</p>
<h2>On thin ice</h2>
<p>More than a decade ago, our research group published <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014028">our first analysis</a> of how outdoor skating was being affected by warming winter temperatures in Canada. We showed that even as of 2005, there was already evidence of later start dates, and shorter skating seasons across most of the country. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on the management of the Rideau Canal Skateway in 2023, produced by the CBC.</span></figcaption>
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<p>These conclusions were echoed by <a href="https://www.rinkwatch.org">subsequent publications from the RinkWatch project</a>, which has reported <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12878">consistent declines in skating season length and quality</a> in many Canadian cities.</p>
<p>Meanwhile in Ottawa, skating days on the <a href="https://rideaucanalskateway.com/">Rideau Canal Skateway</a> have been trending downwards over the last 20 years. In this time, the typical skating season has decreased by almost 40 per cent, a trend that is clearly correlated with increasing winter temperatures over the same period. </p>
<h2>Moving in the wrong direction</h2>
<p>Climate mitigation progress continues to be far too slow. </p>
<p>Global CO2 emissions reached their <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-co2-emissions-at-record-high-in-2023/">highest level ever recorded in 2023</a>, and average global temperatures have now reached <a href="https://berkeleyearth.org">1.3 C above pre-industrial temperatures</a>. If these trends continue, we are on track to reach 1.5 C — the lower threshold of the Paris Agreement temperature target — in <a href="https://climateclock.net">less than seven years</a>.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12878">2012 paper</a>, we estimated that suitable rink flooding days could disappear across most of southern Canada by mid-century. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab8ca8">a more recent analysis of Montréal’s outdoor rinks</a>, we estimated that the number of viable skating days in Montréal could decrease to zero by as early as 2070. </p>
<p>In hindsight, these and other similar projections may have been far too optimistic. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2465">study of Rideau canal skating days published in 2015</a>, the authors projected declining but sustained skating conditions throughout this century, even in a high future emissions scenario. The reality of the past two seasons shows that skating conditions have deteriorated far more quickly than predicted. </p>
<p>Global temperatures in 2023 were the highest ever recorded, as were winter temperatures in December 2023 and January 2024. Since 1950, winter temperatures in Canada have increased by more than 3 C, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth-220997">which is about three times the rate of global warming over this same period</a>. </p>
<p>Outdoor rinks require at least three consecutive very cold days to establish a foundation of ice, followed by enough cold days to maintain a good ice surface. Temperatures above freezing are poorly tolerated by outdoor rinks, and rain is often disastrous. </p>
<p>A few degrees of warming in January and February temperatures can be the difference between a rink that is skatable and one that is not. As winters continue to warm, the case for building and maintaining outdoor municipal rinks will become harder to justify.</p>
<h2>A stark and still changing new reality</h2>
<p>As years go by without any real progress on climate mitigation, it is becoming increasingly difficult to imagine a future in which outdoor rinks will be widely available without artificial refrigeration. Other winter activities will also be affected by changing snow conditions, but outdoor skating will likely be hit first in direct response to warming winter temperatures.</p>
<p>Wayne Gretzky famously <a href="https://gretzky.com/bio.php">learned to skate and play hockey in Branford, Ont. in the 1960s on an outdoor rink built by his father</a>. Reliable winter skating conditions in southern Ontario are already mostly a thing of the past, and are becoming more and more scarce as global warming progresses. It is increasingly unlikely that current and future generations will be able to follow Gretzky’s path. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-good-news-story-about-the-ecological-crisis-be-the-collective-grief-we-are-feeling-215658">Could the good news story about the ecological crisis be the collective grief we are feeling?</a>
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<p>This reality is both a tragic injustice for many young Canadians and an existential threat to a core aspect of the Canadian winter identity.</p>
<p>Preserving what remains of Canada’s winter skating culture will require that we rapidly step up our efforts to drive down CO2 emissions and stabilize global temperatures. Otherwise, Joni Mitchell’s “<a href="https://genius.com/Joni-mitchell-river-lyrics">river I could skate away on</a>” will become an increasingly wishful dream that soon will exist only in the lyrics of old songs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222329/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mitchell Dickau receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Global warming is melting away an iconic cornerstone of Canadian culture — outdoor skating.H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Climate Scientist, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia UniversityMitchell Dickau, PhD Candidate, Geography, Planning, and Environment Department, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237882024-02-20T21:44:04Z2024-02-20T21:44:04ZThe ArriveCan scandal: How can we avoid similar problems in the future?<p>The release of the recent report on the ArriveCan app by Auditor General of Canada Karen Hogan hit Canadians like a bombshell: the app was supposed to cost Canadians $80,000, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2308469827667#:%7E:text=Andrew%20Chang%20breaks%20down%20the,cost%20Canadians%20nearly%20%2460%20million.">but was updated 177 times and racked up a bill of at least $59.5 million, instead</a>. The company behind the scandal, GC Strategies, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/arrivecan-investigation-gc-strategies-had-dozens-of-government-contracts-now-it-s-not-eligible-for-any-1.6771612">received millions of dollars in federal contracts in less than 10 years</a>. </p>
<p>Hogan mentioned that while it was understandable that the government had to relax certain standards to be able to respond quickly to the pandemic, waiving the requirement to provide documentation for the awarding of contracts related to the creation of the app raises questions. ArriveCan collected health and contact information for people travelling outside the country during the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>Hogan’s report reveals shameless mismanagement of public funds by the Canada Border Services Agency.</p>
<p>How could this happen? As a specialist in public sector audit, I took a close look at how different factors combined to create this extreme situation. Here is what I found. </p>
<h2>Exceptional measures for an unprecedented situation</h2>
<p>The pandemic, which was exceptional and unprecedented, profoundly disrupted our daily lives and redefined our perception of what is normal on a global scale. </p>
<p>It led governments to take equally exceptional and often unprecedented measures.</p>
<p>For example, between 2020 and 2023, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/corporate/mandate/about-agency/acts-regulations/list-acts-regulations.html">Emergency Orders in Council were issued under the Quarantine Act</a> to protect public health in Canada. </p>
<p>Among other things, Orders in Council issued as part of Canada’s response to the pandemic <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-health-products/compliance-enforcement/covid19-interim-order-drugs-medical-devices-special-foods/note.html">facilitated the rapid acquisition of personal protective equipment</a>, making this an appropriate government response to the health emergency. However, these measures also led to abuses, particularly concerning the creation of the ArriveCan app.</p>
<h2>Conflicts of interest</h2>
<p>In the case of ArriveCan, the Auditor General noted several situations that seemed to show what appears to be a conflict of interest. </p>
<p>In her report, she points to shortcomings in the contract award process. She points out that Public Health Agency employees attended dinners and other events organized by suppliers. However, there is no documentation proving that these employees informed their supervisor of these interactions, as required by the Agency’s code of conduct.</p>
<p>It is important to underline that government entities must adhere to high standards of integrity and fairness in their procurement processes. As a result, even if the legislation does not explicitly state that a government entity which establishes criteria for a call for tenders is prohibited from bidding, it is likely that such actions would be considered a conflict of interest and contrary to the principles of fairness and transparency. </p>
<p>In fact, any supplier wishing to do business with an entity linked to the government, and in particular to the Government of Canada, must comply with the <a href="https://www.tbs-sct.canada.ca/pol/doc-eng.aspx?id=32627">Directive on Conflict of Interest</a> at all times and adhere to <a href="https://www.tbs-sct.canada.ca/pol/doc-eng.aspx?id=25049">the Values and Ethics Code for the Public Sector</a>.</p>
<h2>Preparation of the call for tenders and submission of bids</h2>
<p>The Auditor General found that the company that received the contract, GC Strategies, was also involved in defining the criteria used to evaluate and select the supplier. This represents a violation of the principles of fairness and transparency put forward by Public Services and Procurement Canada, while placing the company in a position of conflict of interest.</p>
<p>Calls for tenders related to government bodies must comply with certain rules and laws <a href="https://www.mccarthy.ca/en/insights/articles/deep-dive-canadas-public-procurement-law-2-part-series">requiring transparency and non-discrimination</a>. The fundamental principles of the legal framework for calls for tenders in Canada emphasize openness, fairness and transparency in the procurement processes. This means that <a href="https://buyandsell.gc.ca/for-government/buying-for-the-government-of-canada/the-procurement-rules-and-process">any tendering process must be open</a> (anyone can bid), fair (bidders and potential bidders are treated equally) and transparent (the rules are known to everyone).</p>
<p>This was clearly not the case for ArriveCan.</p>
<h2>Lack of accountability</h2>
<p>Another key issue was project management, where everyone’s responsibilities must be clearly established. The Auditor General noted major shortcomings in this area, noting that no formal agreement had been established to specify the roles and responsibilities of each party in the creation and management of the ArriveCan project. </p>
<p>Yet the <a href="https://www.tbs-sct.canada.ca/pol/doc-eng.aspx?id=32594&section=html">Government of Canada Directive on the Management of Projects and Programmes</a> clearly stipulates the need to assign the various responsibilities of a project in order to ensure accountability. This notion is also part of the <a href="https://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/ethics/pmi-code-of-ethics.pdf">Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct of the Project Management Institute</a>, the body that governs project managers. </p>
<p>These shortcomings in terms of accountability and responsibility led to ineffective reporting, as the Auditor General points out in her report.</p>
<h2>An exceptional incident, but not an isolated one</h2>
<p>Although the case of the ArriveCan app is surprising for Canadian taxpayers, with costs skyrocketing from $80,000 to nearly $59.5 million, it is not an isolated incident in the history of Canadian government projects. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/sponsorship-scandal-adscam">Sponsorship scandal</a> is a good example. Between 1997 and 2003, public funds were used to finance public relations campaigns aimed at countering the pro-sovereignty efforts of a provincial political party (the Parti Québécois), without adequate oversight of the spending or effectiveness of these campaigns.</p>
<p>There is also the example of Montréal’s Formula E pilot project in July 2017, which involved electric vehicle races held on its streets. <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/28/montreals-inspector-general-blasts-ex-mayor-denis-coderre-over-formula-e-race/">In her report on the event</a>, the Auditor General of the City of Montréal claimed that the project suffered from ineffective management, unclear allocation of roles and responsibilities, and lack of accountability. At the time, many commentators felt that the affair was partly responsible for then Mayor Denis Coderre losing his re-election. </p>
<h2>Solutions to avoid such scandals</h2>
<p>The ArriveCan affair is just the most recent example of scandals involving an outrageous use of public funds. This underlines the crucial importance of transparent governance and rigorous management of public funds in maintaining the trust of citizens and preserving the integrity of institutions. </p>
<p>As a result, governmental and paragovernmental entities should implement controls to ensure compliance with the various government policies and directives to which they are subject. </p>
<p>In addition, committees made up of members from outside the organization should be set up to evaluate different projects while ensuring proper management and effective and timely reporting on them. This would ensure that the organization’s decisions and actions are subject to impartial and thorough scrutiny, thereby promoting greater transparency and accountability among the players involved. </p>
<p>Although basic, these measures would nevertheless help reinforce accountability among various stakeholders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223788/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annie Lecompte ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The cost overruns of the ArriveCan app are exceptional, but the scandal is not unique in history. There are solutions available to prevent the excessive use of public funds.Annie Lecompte, Associate professor, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230712024-02-20T20:05:23Z2024-02-20T20:05:23ZCanada is a suburban nation because of post-Second World War government policy<p>Canada is a suburban nation, not only because of consumer preferences, but also because of federal government policy in the years following the Second World War.</p>
<p>Most post-war population growth in Canada was in the suburbs, with two-thirds of people living there in 2021, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.24908/32559">my research team’s analysis of the latest census</a>. </p>
<p>But how did Canada become a suburban nation so quickly in the post-war era? </p>
<p>To answer that question, our team spent five years in national archives exploring many thousands of files, photographs, drawings, maps and plans. </p>
<h2>No jurisdiction</h2>
<p>In the years following the Second World War, the federal government led the country’s transformation from a rural to a suburban nation, despite lacking any constitutional jurisdiction in community planning. </p>
<p>Canada’s post-war policies on urbanism were first outlined in an obscure 1944 government document known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02665433.2023.2296922">Curtis Report</a>. This report was a critical turning point for major changes in housing and community planning, setting Canada on a different course than the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/veterans-land-act">A million returning veterans</a> created a housing crisis for a country of only 11 million people, perhaps more serious than the housing shortage Canada is currently experiencing. The Curtis Report proposed a bold strategy to build a million small, affordable homes in planned communities. It was bold because Canada only had a handful of community planners and the home-building industry had collapsed in the Depression. </p>
<p>The federal government did have some jurisdiction over banking and finance, and quickly developed new financial tools that allowed many veterans to buy a small home. </p>
<p>Before the war, many houses were self-built, or financed with short-term notes similar to car loans. Thousands of Canadian families lost their homes in the Depression when they could not repay these loans. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canada-mortgage-and-housing-corporation">In 1946, the federal government established the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)</a> to insure a new form of 25-year, low-interest loan for veterans. The mortgages were soon extended to other families that were financially qualified.</p>
<h2>Relevance today</h2>
<p>Some other tools used from 1944-1959 are relevant in today’s housing crisis.</p>
<p>For example, Canadians had many good designs for small homes to choose from because the federal government’s Wartime Housing Limited organization experimented with minimum-sized homes for workers in suburban war-industry factories. </p>
<p>CMHC completed Wartime Housing Ltd. projects and created new designs for affordable small homes, such as the familiar 1.5-storey “Cape Cod” houses that were built across the country. </p>
<p>CMHC published these house designs as widely distributed pattern books. Families could choose a small home design from the book and, for a nominal sum, order blueprints for estimates from builders.</p>
<p>Many contemporary Canadian homebuilders appear to have forgotten how to build small houses for the entry-level market, opting for so-called “monster homes.” So the federal government’s December 2023 <a href="https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/politics/ottawa-to-launch-pre-approved-home-design-catalogue-bring-back-post-war-effort/article_627ffa49-f473-5f8c-8b14-945ae6bdf3bf.html">proposal to reintroduce small-home pattern books</a> is a welcome one. </p>
<p>The CMHC also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2023.2255150">influenced suburban community design preferences</a> by developing hundreds of neighbourhoods, several new towns and regulating private builders. CMHC opposed the grid subdivisions from the pre-war period and promoted modernist ideas about neighbourhood units composed of crescents and culs-de-sac centred around elementary schools. </p>
<h2>Automobile-dependent</h2>
<p>It also built neighbourhoods for federal agencies across the country, including an entire “<a href="https://doi.org/10.7202/1098366ar">model town</a>” in Oromocto, N.B., for the Department of Defence. </p>
<p>The federal government used its spending power to influence the design of these new neighbourhoods. To receive infrastructure funding in a <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2021/sixteen-projects-showcase-clts-land-assembly-solutions">Federal-Provincial Land Assembly</a>, towns had to accept CMHC’s neighbourhood design, often the first non-grid subdivision in their municipality. </p>
<p>Similarly, private developers who wanted CMHC’s valuable mortgage insurance were required to submit their subdivisions to the federal agency for approval and follow their site-planning standards. </p>
<p>As a result, Canada became a suburban nation with lots of sprawl, but it is <em>planned sprawl</em>, following principles demonstrated across Canada by the federal government. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/15385132231222853">new planning powers</a> locked in vast areas of single-family homes with zoning rules that resisted any change. Most of these older Canadian suburbs simply don’t function very well for people who are too young, too old or too poor to own and operate an automobile. </p>
<h2>Outdated idea</h2>
<p>Our research shows that <a href="https://www.canadiansuburbs.ca/interactive-map/">Canadian mass suburbanization</a> was directed by public policy and its infrastructure was heavily subsidized.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the authors of the Curtis Report couldn’t foresee the difficult environmental, social and financial consequences of mass suburbanization in 1944. </p>
<p>While single detached homes and automobiles seemed like desirable options 80 years ago, it proved physically impossible, too expensive and socially inequitable to build a large metropolis using only these tools. </p>
<p>With the benefit of hindsight, the federal government is once again using its spending power in its new <a href="https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sf/project/cmhc/pdfs/content/en/housing-action-plans-guide-for-municipalities.pdf">Housing Action Plan</a> to encourage municipalities to abandon single-family zoning and promote more flexible tools for planning 21st century communities. </p>
<p>It should consider similar conditions for its much larger transportation and utilities infrastructure programs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David L.A. Gordon received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada through Insight Grant 435-2018-0378. He chairs the Research Committee for the Council for Canadian Urbanism.</span></em></p>Following the Second World War, the federal government led the country’s transformation from a rural to a suburban nation, despite lacking any constitutional jurisdiction in community planning.David L.A. Gordon, Professor, School of Urban and Regional Planning; Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226162024-02-08T03:13:07Z2024-02-08T03:13:07ZFirst Nations people must be at the forefront of Australia’s renewable energy revolution<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003242499-10/getting-right-katie-quail-donna-green-ciaran-faircheallaigh">plentiful</a> solar and wind resources and proximity to Asia means it can become a renewable energy superpower. But as the renewable energy rollout continues, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people must benefit. </p>
<p>Renewables projects can provide income and jobs to Aboriginal land owners. Access to clean energy can also help First Nations people protect their culture and heritage, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X23000296#bbib0060">remain on Country</a>. </p>
<p>This is not a new idea. Policies in the United States and Canada, for example, actively seek to ensure the energy transition delivers opportunities to Indigenous people.</p>
<p>The Australian government is developing a <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-and-climate-change-ministerial-council/working-groups/first-nations-engagement-working-group/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy">First Nations Clean Energy Strategy</a> and is seeking comment on a <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy-consultation-paper">consultation paper</a>. Submissions close tomorrow, February 9. If you feel strongly about the issue, we urge you to have your say.</p>
<p>We must get this policy right. Investing meaningfully in First Nations-led clean energy projects makes the transition more likely to succeed. What’s more, recognising the rights and interests of First Nations people is vital to ensuring injustices of the past are not repeated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A video by author Adam Fish exploring the Eastern Kuku Yalanji community of Wujal Wujal in Queensland and their struggle for renewable energy..</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Good for business, and people</h2>
<p>Indigenous peoples have recognised land interests covering around <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2021/may/17/who-owns-australia">26% of Australia’s landmass</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">Research</a> shows Aboriginal land holders want to be part of the energy transition. But they need support and resources. </p>
<p>This could take the form of federal grants to make communities more energy-efficient or less reliant on expensive, polluting diesel generators. Funding could also be spent on workforce training to ensure First Nations people have the skills to take part in the transition. Federal agencies could be funded to support grants for First Nations feasibility studies of renewable energy industry on their land.</p>
<p>As well as proper investment, governments must also ensure First Nations people are engaged early in the planning of renewable projects and that the practice of free prior and informed consent is followed. And renewable energy operators will also need to ensure they have capability to work with First peoples. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/first_nations_can_help_australia_respond_to_the_united_states_inflation_reduction_act">First Nations Clean Energy Network</a> – of which one author, Heidi Norman, is part – is a network of First Nations people, community organisations, land councils, unions, academics, industry groups and others. It is working to ensure First Nations communities share the benefits of the clean energy boom.</p>
<p>The network is among a group of organisations calling on the federal government to invest an additional A$100 billion into the Australian renewables industry. The investment should be designed to benefit all Australians, including First Nations people.</p>
<p>In Australia, the Albanese government has set an emissions-reduction goal of a 43% by 2030, based on 2005 levels. But Australia’s renewable energy rollout is not happening fast enough to meet this goal. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/get-to-yes-or-no-as-quickly-as-possible-bowen-wants-fast-decisions-on-renewables-20240111-p5ewmj.html">called for</a> faster planning decisions on renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>To achieve the targets, however, the federal government must bring communities along with them – including First Nations people.</p>
<p>As demonstrated by the US and Canada, investing <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003242499-10/getting-right-katie-quail-donna-green-ciaran-faircheallaigh">meaningfully and at scale</a> in First Nations-led clean energy projects is not just equitable, it makes good business sense.</p>
<h2>Follow the leaders</h2>
<p>The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 made A$520 billion in investments to accelerate the transition to net zero. <a href="https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=123806">Native Americans</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003845">stand</a> to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Tribal-Guidebook.pdf">receive</a> hundreds of billions of dollars from the laws. This includes funding set aside for Tribal-specific programs.</p>
<p>Canada is even further ahead in this policy space. In fact, analysis <a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ICE-report-ENGLISH-FINAL.pdf">shows</a> First Nations, Métis and Inuit entities are partners or beneficiaries of almost 20% of Canada’s electricity-generating infrastructure, almost all of which is producing renewable energy. In one of the most recent investments, the Canadian government in 2022 invested <a href="https://www.rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1481305379258/1594737453888">C$300 million</a> to help <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222031735?casa_token=SXoJWgJwAikAAAAA:aQrTM16T_OPLQEgVk31foMzZt79T5YxOz9k3v2CEsWe8fIPPneIBw6Q0DRWIHQPzqzHNbZ0">First Nations, Inuit and Métis Peoples</a> launch clean energy projects.</p>
<p>Policymakers in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003031?casa_token=oA-q7QLSoi0AAAAA:ERC46yk_BCTFm5BnyPv9Nn2jFiFrc7XjRw_H0GKPRI_HsBq_0l8mZqxlYbim7l1zcQPAskA">both</a> <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/full/10.1139/er-2018-0024?casa_token=H26U1EGKnakAAAAA%3ALnTYxXudwDujnWnyWqUbK9Mo4R9ekhETvW7g8dthacWDox3TFSi-Jm4B4A5qpIIo1KaWEpaCU2k">countries</a> increasingly realise that a just transition from fossil fuels requires addressing the priorities of First Nations communities. These investments are a starting point for building sustainable, globally competitive economies that work for everyone.</p>
<p>As the US and Canada examples <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X22004316">demonstrate</a>, the right scale of investment in First Nations-led projects can mean fewer legal delays and a much-needed social licence to operate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewable-projects-are-getting-built-faster-but-theres-even-more-need-for-speed-221874">Renewable projects are getting built faster – but there's even more need for speed </a>
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<h2>Dealing with the climate risk</h2>
<p>First Nations people around the world are on the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620306429?casa_token=AAadBFs9XWUAAAAA:eFX4w39-yt7SjqNVXgIbHF-bCGiHu-v4UyyEF6k7Fsl_wt85KdjFXkTYBGhvA6prSPD3DnU">frontline of climate change</a>. It threatens their homelands, food sources, cultural resources and ways of life.</p>
<p>First Nations have also experienced chronic under-investment in their energy infrastructure by governments over generations, both in <a href="https://theconversation.com/many-first-nations-communities-swelter-without-power-why-isnt-there-solar-on-every-rooftop-204032">Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629621002280">abroad</a>.</p>
<p>Investing in First Nations-led clean energy projects <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/22/9569">builds climate resilience</a>. This was demonstrated by the federal government’s Bushlight program, which ran from 2002 to 2013. It involved renewable energy systems installed in remote communities in the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.</p>
<p>Bushlight’s solar power meant that communities were not dependent on the delivery of diesel. So they still had power if roads were closed by flooding or other climate disasters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">How can Aboriginal communities be part of the NSW renewable energy transition?</a>
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<h2>Australia must get moving</h2>
<p>The Biden government’s Inflation Reduction Act prompted a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-eyes-over-14-bln-green-transformation-spending-govt-2023-08-23/">swift</a> <a href="https://www.esade.edu/faculty-research/sites/default/files/publicacion/pdf/2023-05/The%20EU%20Response%20to%20the%20U.S.%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act.pdf">reaction</a> from governments around the world. But after 15 months, Australia is yet to respond or develop equivalent legislation. </p>
<p>We must urgently <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-pushed-to-create-100b-australian-inflation-reduction-act-20230907-p5e2y7">develop our response</a> and seize this unique opportunity to become world leaders in the global renewables race. That includes ensuring First Nations participate in and benefit from these developments.</p>
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<p><em>The First Nations Clean Energy Strategy consultation paper can be found <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-and-climate-change-ministerial-council/working-groups/first-nations-engagement-working-group/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy">here</a>. Feedback can be provided <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy-consultation-paper">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Fish volunteers research for the First Nations Clean Energy Network.
He received funding from the Digital Grid Future Institute at the University of New South Wales.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heidi Norman receives funding from Australian Research Council and James Martin Institute. </span></em></p>Australia lags the US and Canada when it comes to involving Indigenous people in projects on their land. With the growth of renewable energy we have an opportunity to make a fresh start.Adam Fish, Associate Professor, School of Arts and Media, UNSW SydneyHeidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214662024-02-07T21:17:33Z2024-02-07T21:17:33ZEndangered by the 49th Parallel: How political boundaries inhibit effective conservation<p>Canada is wasting scarce resources conserving species that are not endangered elsewhere.</p>
<p>Some Canadian scientists advocate for conservation efforts to focus on species unique to this country, while others argue for a more global focus. However, most ignore the fact that the U.S. – Canada border creates endangered species.</p>
<p>Scientists preserve their objectivity by excluding politics from their research. The truth is, however, that conservation science can’t help being geopolitical. We must consider the global context when designing Canadian endangered species, and biodiversity, protections.</p>
<h2>Time for a chat about Chats</h2>
<p>Take the <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Yellow-breasted_Chat/id">Yellow-breasted Chat</a>, a <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Canada_Warbler/overview">charismatic warbler</a> <a href="https://wildlife-species.canada.ca/bird-status/oiseau-bird-eng.aspx?sY=2019&sL=e&sB=YBCH&sM=p1">listed as Endangered under the (Canadian) federal Species at Risk Act (SARA)</a>. The Canadian fragment of the Southern Mountain subspecies survives in a handful of sites in B.C. along the Okanagan and Similkameen rivers. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.registrelep-sararegistry.gc.ca/virtual_sara/files/plans/rs_yellow-breasted_chat_auricollis_southern_mountain_pop_e_final.pdf">2014 federal Action Plan estimated</a> the entire B.C. population to be 170 <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/breeding-pair">breeding pairs</a>. According to the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22722057/138772425">International Union for Conservation (IUCN) Red List</a>, though, the global population is around 17 million across North America. </p>
<p>As a result the Chat’s status is “least concern”, the lowest in the IUCN ranking.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bird sings on a branch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Yellow-breasted Chat is found throughout the U.S. and Canada, with the majority populations found in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>The federal Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/species-risk-public-registry/cosewic-assessments-status-reports/yellow-breasted-chat-2011.html">says</a> the Southern Mountain subspecies “occurs at the northern edge of its range in Canada” as a peripheral to the huge American core population. </p>
<p>In other words, the Yellow-breasted Chat is listed as endangered in Canada because, in 1846, the British accepted that the <a href="https://canadiangeographic.ca/articles/the-49th-parallel-our-defining-line/">border with the U.S. should lie at the 49th parallel</a>. </p>
<h2>Endangered, or not?</h2>
<p>The question then is, should conservation efforts be dedicated to tiny Canadian populations of otherwise healthy species? </p>
<p><a href="https://soscp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Yellow-breasted-Chat.pdf">Elder Richard Armstrong’s traditional story</a> illuminates why the Chat, which his people call xʷaʔɬqʷiləm’ (whaa-th-quil lem), matters to the transboundary Nsyilxcən speaking Peoples. This story is an example of the cultural values that always <a href="https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226358338-006">shape</a> conservation laws, both in Canada and around the world, and which provide good reasons for legal protection even of treasured peripheral populations. The First Nation’s special care for the Chat, in turn, makes it more likely that COSEWIC’s listing will help. </p>
<p>Not in every case, though. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/h13010038">our recent study</a> on the conservation status of transboundary mammal species in Canada and the U.S., Cardiff University doctoral student Sarah Raymond, Sarah Perkins from the School of Biosciences at Cardiff University, and I, found just six species — including the polar bear, wood bison and two species of right whale — were listed by both COSEWIC and U.S. authorities. </p>
<p>Of 20 transboundary species listed in just one country, 17 were listed only in Canada. Fourteen of those were, like the chat, ‘Least Concern’ globally, while just one bat species, Myotis lucifugus, was universally assessed as endangered. </p>
<p>Other research supports our findings. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12430">recent study found</a> that 22 per cent of those species that straddled the U.S.-Canada border were only protected on one side – almost always in Canada. The authors, though, take it for granted that peripheral populations deserve to have high conservation status. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.03.001">study scored</a> 729 COSEWIC-listed species, subspecies and <a href="https://biologydictionary.net/population/">populations</a> to assess the global context of these conservation measures. The study questions the fact that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In many cases, … subspecies units (e.g. twelve kinds of caribou) and peripheral populations of globally secure species are being given high priority, while endemic and globally endangered species are neglected.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sometimes isolated populations, like the <a href="https://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/eswp/esr.do?id=17481">fishers</a> of the Columbia region, are valued because they are genetically distinctive, but these should be rare exceptions. Instead, Canada has so many peripheral populations marooned on the wrong side of the border that Fred Bunnell, a UBC forest ecologist, named the phenomenon <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/plants-animals-and-ecosystems/species-ecosystems-at-risk/species-at-risk-documents/cf_primer.pdf">“jurisdictional rarity.”</a> Bunnell argued that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Efforts to conserve species that are locally rare but globally common often ignore the ecologically marginal nature of habitat and population. They engage in a fight with nature.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Overcoming jurisdictional rarity</h2>
<p>I live in one of the skinny fragments of shrub steppe that snake up from the Columbia plateau in the U.S. through Osoyoos to Kamloops — an area which seems purpose-built for jurisdictional rarity. </p>
<p>Take the burrowing owl, a ground-nesting raptor with a vexed facial expression. </p>
<p>The bird, <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/plants-animals-and-ecosystems/species-ecosystems-at-risk/brochures/burrowing_owl.pdf">while protected in B.C. since 2004</a>, is mostly absent from the province. Meanwhile, the IUCN’s <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22689353/93227732">range map</a> for the burrowing owl (Least Concern), stretches from Alberta to Argentina. </p>
<p>B.C. has <a href="https://www.burrowingowlbc.org/">spent considerable resources reintroducing</a> the owl within the province. Ecologists might defend its role as a grasslands predator, and British Columbians might, given the choice, like to have the charming bird species thrive in the province. However, this choice, which is arguably ‘a fight with nature’, is never presented as a political one. </p>
<p>Public information about endangered species dodges jurisdictional rarity, leaving decisions to scientists and bureaucrats. </p>
<h2>Reframing the conversation</h2>
<p>Ontario’s Endangered Species Act (OESA) was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12483">lauded by conservationists</a> because, unlike SARA, it gave scientists the power to impose automatic listing with no political interference. </p>
<p>Doug Ford’s government defanged OESA with its <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-42/session-1/bill-108">More Homes, More Choice Act in 2019</a>, though it did include a sensible requirement that the Committee on the Status of Species at Risk in Ontario (COSSARO) consider jurisdictional rarity.</p>
<p>Scientists opposed to Ford’s pandering to property developers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2020-0064">want the legislation restored to its former glory</a>, meaning COSSARO would list species “based on their status solely in Ontario, as was formerly done.” But why? </p>
<p>Over-listing shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Scientists may feel protective towards Canadian populations they know and love, but citizens won’t want limited resources wasted on conservation of un-endangered species. Scientific and political processes <a href="https://sierraclub.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/Species-at-risk-Recovery-Report-Brief_0.pdf">gummed up</a> with peripheral species make it less likely that critically imperilled species will be saved. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/environmental-laws-in-canada-fall-short-of-addressing-the-ongoing-biodiversity-crisis-162983">Environmental laws in Canada fall short of addressing the ongoing biodiversity crisis</a>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2018-0042">Some biologists claim</a> that effective conservation needs tough laws that put scientists alone in charge of listing and protection (on public land, at least). I would argue, though, that legitimacy, not coercive power, is the most precious commodity in conservation. </p>
<p>Social science research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.11.014">shows that most Canadians, regardless of background, want species protected</a>, yet their support — vital in a vast nation like Canada — is fragile. It <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26269957">depends on a belief</a> that listing processes are democratically legitimate, and that listed species deserve protection. </p>
<p>Where good reasons exist to protect peripheral species, those arguments should be public and open to debate. </p>
<p>My field — environmental humanities — is generally better at asking awkward questions than proposing solutions. In this case, though, I have a simple recommendation: new conservation laws, such as B.C. is <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/biodiversity-habitat-management/draft_biodiversity_and_ecosystem_health_framework.pdf">considering</a>, should require that peripheral species be identified transparently, using agreed definitions, as ‘endangered in B.C.’, or ‘threatened in Canada’. If it does, I would vote for conservation of Okanagan chats regardless.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Garrard's research is funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, grant no. 435-2020-1220. Sarah Raymond's research visit to UBC Okanagan was funded by UKRI-MITACS Globalink. </span></em></p>Canada is wasting resources, and legitimacy, conserving species that are not endangered elsewhere. Transparent cross-border considerations should inform all new conservation laws.Greg Garrard, Professor of Environmental Humanities, Faculty of Creative and Critical Studies, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194472024-02-01T23:18:48Z2024-02-01T23:18:48ZNATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence to open in Montréal: What does it mean for Canadian security?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572896/original/file-20240201-29-vhq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6240%2C4156&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NATO's Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE) is set to open this year in Montréal.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/nato-climate-change-and-security-centre-of-excellence-to-open-in-montreal-what-does-it-mean-for-canadian-security" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>This year Montréal is set to become the home for the <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/nato-otan/centre-excellence.aspx?lang=eng">North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s new Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE)</a>. The CCASCOE, as the name would suggest, is set to provide specific expertise on the environment and the impacts of climate change for NATO security.</p>
<p>When announcing the new centre, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared it will “<a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2023/07/12/prime-minister-announces-additional-measures-support-ukraine">enable Canada, NATO allies, and other global partners to understand and address the serious security implications of climate change, including in the Arctic …[and]… it will contribute to Montréal’s status as a global hub for international organizations.”</a> </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_68372.htm">NATO centres of excellence (COE) system</a> provides a valuable network of expertise to support innovation, and to “assist in doctrine development, identify lessons learned, improve interoperability and capabilities, and test and validate concepts through experimentation.” </p>
<p>Amid escalating geopolitical risks, Montréal’s new centre represents a strong commitment to climate security and will be crucial to promoting a co-ordinated global response that strengthens Canada’s capacity to address climate-specific concerns. As the federal government set out in a <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/nato-otan/centre-excellence.aspx?lang=eng">recent statement</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Climate impacts may test the resilience of military installations and equipment, create harsher or more complex operational conditions, and change the nature of the strategic environment, which poses unique challenges for military and security entities charged with maintaining our security.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The new centre is specifically designed to address these evolving concerns.</p>
<h2>Climate security collaboration</h2>
<p>In June 2021, the Canadian government proposed hosting the CCASCOE at a NATO Summit in Brussels. A year later it announced Montréal as the planned host city, with Canada providing $40.4 million in “direct support” for CCASCOE as host nation over five years.</p>
<p>The CCASCOE’s founding document governs “<a href="https://www.act.nato.int/about/centres-of-excellence/">the relationship between participating countries and the Centre of Excellence</a>” and was <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/nato-otan/centre-excellence.aspx?lang=eng">signed by Canada and 11 sponsoring nations</a>.</p>
<p>NATO’s <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_68372.htm#:%7E:text=The%20overall%20responsibility%20for%20COE,CAN">Allied Command Transformation ACT</a> is responsible for establishing, accrediting and preparing the centres of excellence in co-ordination with the Supreme Allied Commander Europe. </p>
<p>The centres of excellence network provides a global array of expertise and practices that can benefit the development of the CCASCOE and facilitate information-sharing to climate change-related security capabilities. That ranges from the development of climate-related rapid response exercises to environmental disasters and other related engagements.</p>
<p>NATO has a long history of co-operation on doctrine development, which could serve as a valuable template for CCASCOE activities.</p>
<p>For instance, the Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) <a href="https://ccdcoe.org/about-us/">in Tallinn, Estonia, provides</a> “interdisciplinary expertise” through joint initiatives that include research, training and exercises. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://ccdcoe.org/exercises/crossed-swords/">Crossed Swords</a> exercise simulates adversaries’ perspectives to identify NATO’s own strengths and weaknesses. </p>
<p>Additionally, <a href="https://ccdcoe.org/exercises/locked-shields/">Locked Shields</a> is a team exercise focused on “realistic scenarios, cutting-edge technologies and simulating the entire complexity of a massive cyber incident.” </p>
<p>These existing exercises could offer the CCASCOE a helpful framework to structure engagements supported by the existing centres of excellence network. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-military-view-on-climate-change-its-eroding-our-national-security-and-we-should-prepare-for-it-65535">A military view on climate change: It's eroding our national security and we should prepare for it</a>
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<p>Another area where CCASCOE can lead innovation is through the hosting of exercises to train disaster-response capabilities for climate security challenges. An annual flagship exercise or a series of shorter practical workshops could support this leadership and help NATO members combat climate security challenges, build capacity and enhance public awareness.</p>
<h2>Developing strategies</h2>
<p>ACT’s <a href="https://www.act.nato.int/article/act-enhances-natos-understanding-of-climate-change/">Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 report</a> will update NATO’s understanding of the security implications of climate change to the alliance. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.act.nato.int/article/sfa-topics-climate/">update will highlight</a> the importance of international co-operation to mitigate climate change, given that “strategic competitors may exploit disruptive changes, undermining alliances through false narratives and weaponizing critical technologies.”</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-creating-security-threats-around-the-world-and-militaries-are-responding-173668">Climate change is creating security threats around the world – and militaries are responding</a>
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<p>At the Vilnius summit in June 2023, NATO released a series of <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_217212.htm">climate strategy reports</a>, including a climate security assessment, a collection of best practices and guidelines to measure greenhouse gas emissions for civilian and military infrastructure. </p>
<p>These initiatives emphasized the required civilian and military collaboration on climate security challenges — co-ordination that Canada and the CCASCOE are ideally placed to support.</p>
<h2>Melting Arctic, rising tensions</h2>
<p>This development occurs amid rising tensions.</p>
<p>The Arctic is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8">predicted to experience the first September free of sea ice in history as early as the 2030s-2050s irrespective of emission scenarios</a>. As a result, the Arctic will increasingly become more active and see increased demand for resource access, shipping routes and territorial claims. The increased activity and strategic significance placed on the Arctic will heighten geopolitical risk.</p>
<p>For example, in August 2023, Russia’s <a href="https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2023/04/fsb-signs-maritime-security-cooperation-china-murmansk">FSB Border Guard Service and China’s Coast Guard were reported</a> to have increased co-operation in the northern port of Murmansk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2023/06/19/russian-vtb-bank-to-finance-the-construction-of-icebreakers/">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2023/06/28/third-chinese-polar-icebreaker-will-carry-deep-sea-submersibles/">China</a> have also invested in ice-breakers designed to increase a regional presence in the north.</p>
<p>These moves present serious challenges to the NATO alliance. </p>
<p>High on the agenda at this summer’s annual NATO summit will no doubt be the development of a co-ordinated approach to support climate security innovation. And in this regard, Canada — and the CCASCOE — will likely play an active role in developing this new strategic agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219447/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan Atkinson receives funding from the Canadian Defence and Security Network and previously worked at NATO.</span></em></p>Climate and environmental insecurity is set to grow in severity as the world warms. The upcoming launch of a new NATO climate change and security centre in Montréal aims to address these concerns.Ryan Atkinson, Postdoctoral Fellow, Defence Policy, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218382024-01-30T22:36:36Z2024-01-30T22:36:36ZHow a ‘turn it off’ approach to energy conservation could benefit Canada, and the planet<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-a-turn-it-off-approach-to-energy-conservation-could-benefit-canada-and-the-planet" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The challenge for climate change communicators a couple of decades ago was conveying what the research was showing: that the burning of fossil fuels was altering the planet’s climate. That communication played a vital role in facilitating the current widespread understanding that the climate is changing and it is a crisis. </p>
<p>There remains, however, a fundamental communication challenge in moving the focus from consuming different kinds of energy to facilitating a revolution of consuming less. Recent electrical grid events in Alberta offer a compelling case study.</p>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10217359/alberta-extreme-cold-warning-january-2024/">On Jan. 13, 2024, extreme cold hit Alberta — the coldest in half a century</a>. As people turned up their thermostats to stay warm, Alberta’s power grid was put under immense strain. To avoid taking pressure off the electrical grid with rolling blackouts (rotating half an hour power outages throughout Alberta), the <a href="https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/albertans-asked-to-conserve-energy-for-2-hours-during-electric-grid-alert-1.6725104">Alberta Emergency Management Agency sent an alert to all Albertans</a>. </p>
<p>This unprecedented use of the emergency system, the first of what would be four alerts, asked Albertans <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-electrical-grid-emergency-decarbonization-1.7083664">to turn off unnecessary electricity — lights, electrical appliances and devices — and use “essentials only.”</a></p>
<p>Albertans responded. <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-power-grid-alerts-aeso-alberta">Within minutes of the initial emergency alert being issued, demand on Alberta’s power grid decreased by 150 megawatts and continued to fall</a>. <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-alberta.html">Alberta has an estimated generative capacity of around 16,330 megawatts.</a>.</p>
<p>Because many people and some businesses voluntarily switched off appliances and other electrical devices that were not needed, there was no need for the rolling blackouts.</p>
<h2>Switching off</h2>
<p>The brief experience of turning off highlighted a couple of things. First, that people are willing to change behaviours when asked. Second, the behaviour change, for some, was positive. As one Albertan <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/alberta/comments/196675j/visual_of_the_immediate_reduced_power_consumption/?rdt=41028">posted on Reddit</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Our kids made a game out of it. Showered with a candle in the bathroom, we had one small light to read books, ALL the lights off in and outside the house, no TV obviously.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another poster on the same Reddit thread offered that their 10-year-old excitedly asked that all the lights and TV be turned off and added: “It looks like the alert does work.”</p>
<p>In the aftermath, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/alberta-emergency-power-alert-underlines-challenge-of-energy-transition-on-prairies/ar-AA1mXFZm">the news has focused on critiques of Alberta’s current energy generation and how to facilitate growing energy output in the future as fossil-fuels continue to be phased out</a>. Politicians and experts wondered how the grid could be more robust and fail-safe so that there is no need to ask people to turn things off. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-electrical-grid-emergency-decarbonization-1.7083664">Critiques of solar and wind were also quickly offered</a> as were the benefits of new power generation such as <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-power-grid-alerts-aeso-alberta">Alberta’s Cascade Power Project — a 900 megawatt natural gas-fired plant</a> —
and <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-how-alberta-can-avoid-another-grid-alert">increased energy generation flexibility</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on the January cold wave produced by the CBC.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But what if the opportunity in Alberta’s power grid struggles is not about producing different kinds of energy but consuming less? </p>
<h2>Looking beyond supply</h2>
<p>The January cold wave is a critical moment to reflect upon the status quo and reimagine a system that values consuming less, not producing more.</p>
<p>Alberta’s electrical grid alerts gave us a glimpse, for a few hours, of a topic largely absent from climate communication: we are consuming too much of everything. We must use and consume less. Less energy, less stuff. We <a href="https://time.com/6341884/climate-change-consumption/">cannot consume our way out of this crisis</a>. </p>
<p>We must consume less, and Albertans proved that this is not only possible but can even be a positive experience.</p>
<p>It is also important, in the depths of an unprecedented cold-weather event, to not lose sight of the fact that globally 2023 was the warmest year on record “by far” — <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far#:%7E:text=Earth's%20average%20land%20and%20ocean,0.15%20of%20a%20degree%20C">beating 2016 (the previous record-setting year) by .15 degrees Celsius (also a record)</a>. </p>
<p>The 10 warmest years on record — since 1850 — have been in the past 10 years and this changing climate is causing extreme wildfires, tornadoes, cyclones, drought, flooding, heat and cold. Here and around the world <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">lives and habitats are indiscriminately being destroyed</a>. This is our emergency alert.</p>
<h2>A new normal</h2>
<p>Shifting to turning off and reducing consumption patterns for individuals, businesses and industry will be incredibly hard. The global economy, and related jobs, are built on consuming more. But the climate crisis, as well as growing inequality and ecosystem destruction, will make status quo levels of consumption increasingly untenable. </p>
<p>The Alberta Emergency Management Agency sent emergency alerts asking people to turn off because the alternative would have been mandatory rolling blackouts. Asking people to turn off voluntarily allowed Albertans to respond with thoughtfulness, dignity and agency. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion-218019">COP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion</a>
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<p>We, collectively across Canada and around the world, are in an emergency. The climate crisis is upon us and we have a choice. We can delay structural change and await the extreme climate crisis consequences. Or we can demand that government and industry implement the systemic changes required to avert (or at least mitigate) this catastrophe.</p>
<p>Regardless, the lessons from Alberta are clear. We could all try “turning off” from time to time — saving money, <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190320145559.htm">helping the planet</a> and perhaps reconnecting with friends and family. That, if nothing else, could be a benefit worth championing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Ellen Good does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Alberta’s experiment with voluntary ‘switching off’ was a success both in terms of saving electricity and in showcasing the power of proactive informed action to address the climate crisis.Jennifer Ellen Good, Associate Professor and Chair, Communication, Popular Culture and Film, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216992024-01-29T17:34:59Z2024-01-29T17:34:59ZWhat Canada can learn from Ireland on citizen engagement to bolster democracy<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/what-canada-can-learn-from-ireland-on-citizen-engagement-to-bolster-democracy" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canadian democracy is under pressure. Recent challenges have ranged from Ottawa’s so-called <a href="https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/idUSRTS593FA/">Freedom Convoy</a> protests in 2022, which resulted in the federal government invoking the Emergencies Act (unjustifiably, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/emergencies-act-federal-court-1.7091891">according to a recent court ruling</a>), to Ontario’s enactment of legislation reducing the size of Toronto City Council during <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ca/scc/doc/2021/2021scc34/2021scc34.html">the 2018 municipal election</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps most worrying, however, is the <a href="https://www.policymagazine.ca/canadas-growing-problem-with-trust-in-government/">consistent trend</a> that shows citizens are increasingly disillusioned with their democratic institutions. </p>
<p>This is a moment that calls out for democratic renewal. In the search for inspiration for methods of re-engaging citizens, Canada might look to Ireland. </p>
<h2>Irish inspiration</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07907184.2018.1534832">Ireland has become a trailblazer</a> internationally for integrating citizens’ assemblies into its democratic process. Citizens’ assemblies are a form of what are known as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1sr6gw9">deliberative mini-publics</a>,” representative samples of ordinary citizens who deliberate together and make proposals for reform. </p>
<p>Modern examples of deliberative mini-publics stem from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/08/us/politics/robert-a-dahl-dies-at-98-defined-politics-and-power.html">American political scientist Robert Dahl’s</a> idea of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199547944.003.0002">what he called “minipopulus”</a> in which a random cohort of citizens is tasked with deliberating on an issue with the assistance of experts. Ideally, it then produces a reasoned judgment on the best policies to pursue. </p>
<p>The judgments of the minipopulus, Dahl argued, would represent the views of the wider community if it was given the opportunity to access the best knowledge available and engage in a deliberative process. In other words, the legitimacy of the minipopulus’s views would derive from the legitimacy of democracy itself.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-deliberative-democracy-research-in-nepal-shows-it-could-spur-global-youth-voting-189204">What's 'deliberative' democracy? Research in Nepal shows it could spur global youth voting</a>
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<p>One of the world’s first citizens’ assemblies took place in Canada in 2004, in the form of the <a href="https://participedia.net/case/1">British Columbia Citizens’ Assembly</a> which deliberated on electoral reform. It set the model for the subsequent <a href="https://participedia.net/case/46">Ontario Citizens’ Assembly</a> on the same subject in 2007. </p>
<p>In each case, the assembly’s recommendations were put to referendum, but in neither case did the referendum pass. The momentum around citizens’ assemblies in Canada has since faded.</p>
<h2>Irish abortion laws</h2>
<p>The Irish experience has been different. Citizens’ assemblies in Ireland began in 2012 in response to public distrust of elite institutions following <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/great-recession/">the 2008 recession.</a> </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.constitutionalconvention.ie">Constitutional Convention</a> — an assembly including both elected representatives and ordinary citizens — was mandated to make recommendations on a range of matters, from marriage equality to the voting age. </p>
<p>In 2016, the Irish government established the first <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/overview-previous-assemblies/2016-2018-citizens-assembly/">citizens’ assembly</a> composed entirely of randomly selected citizens. Its first topic was Ireland’s constitutional position on abortion. </p>
<p>Abortion was an explosive issue in Ireland since the controversial insertion of a 1983 amendment to the country’s constitution that effectively banned abortion in most circumstances. Public demand for a referendum on the issue had been building, and the government’s decision to establish a citizens’ assembly was criticized by some as a stalling tactic.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the assembly <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/FirstReport_EIGHTAMENDMENT.pdf">ultimately recommended</a> a radical liberalization of the law to allow for abortion without restriction for the first time in Irish history. </p>
<p>Following the resounding referendum result in favour of this proposal, lawmakers enacted a new legislative framework, based around the model recommended by the assembly — an extraordinary example of tangible mini-public impact on a landmark legal reform.</p>
<h2>Not a silver bullet</h2>
<p>Of course, not all citizen processes are so impactful. Indeed, the Irish Citizens’ Assembly has produced recommendations on other topics that have not achieved the same — or any — uptake. </p>
<p>But since 2016, citizens’ assemblies have started to become part of the architecture of constitutional and policy change in Ireland. Since 2020, assemblies have taken place on <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/report-of-the-citizens-assembly-on-gender-equality.pdf">gender equality</a>, <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/ReportonBiodiversityLoss.pdf">biodiversity</a>, <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/report_dublincitizensassembly_final_lowres.pdf">models of local government</a> and <a href="https://citizensassembly.ie/assembly-on-drugs-use/recommendations/">drug use</a>. It remains to be seen how or if the recommendations will eventually result in constitutional or legislative changes.</p>
<p>Citizens’ assemblies are not a silver bullet — their impact depends on the appetite of politicians to implement their recommendations and many other factors. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-eu-citizens-assembly-could-help-to-renew-european-democracy-98894">How an EU citizens' assembly could help to renew European democracy</a>
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<p>There is, however, a strong case for revisiting citizens’ assemblies in Canada, not least the significant contemporary challenges facing Canadian democracy. The perceived failings of prior Canadian experiments with citizens’ assemblies are no reason to abandon these efforts. </p>
<p>The disappointing outcomes of the referendums that followed those processes were not attributable to a failure of citizens to deliberate and agree on reform; the reasons for failure were many, both legal and political. </p>
<p>By all accounts, the participants in those assemblies showed <a href="https://cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2008/Leduc.pdf">enthusiasm and energy</a> at becoming engaged in shaping their country’s values.</p>
<h2>Canadian opportunities</h2>
<p>A raft of areas of law in Canada are now in need of reform. The federal government has <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2023/02/government-of-canada-appoints-president-and-commissioners-to-the-law-commission-of-canada.html">outlined a range of priorities</a> for the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/law-commission-canada.html">Law Commission of Canada</a>, including racism in the law, reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, access to justice, climate change and technological changes. </p>
<p>The Irish experience has shown that citizens are capable not only of deliberating on broad constitutional issues, but technical legislative matters too. </p>
<p>What’s more, citizens’ assemblies can serve a particularly important role when elected representatives have a vested interest. That includes on topics like electoral reform because it may be unrealistic to expect politicians to substantially reform a system that resulted in their election in the first place. Citizens have no such conflicts.</p>
<p>Canada has so far avoided the more extreme attacks on democracy witnessed by its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/04/us/january-6-capitol-trump-investigation.html">nearest neighbour</a>, the United States. In the face of declining public participation, however, there is no room for complacency. A fresh approach to citizen engagement is an exciting prospect, worthy of serious consideration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seána Glennon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Canada’s nearest neighbour grapples with serious attacks on democracy, a fresh approach to citizen engagement in Canada is an exciting prospect, worthy of serious consideration.Seána Glennon, Doctoral Fellow, Constitutional Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182982024-01-18T22:00:22Z2024-01-18T22:00:22ZFlipping Indigenous regional development in Newfoundland upside-down: lessons from Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570173/original/file-20240118-27-4y6ku6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C1816&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Newfoundland and Tasmania, Australia, have been described as 'mirror islands' with striking linkages. Site of one of the field excursions during the authors' 12-day exchange to Tasmania, Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Author Provided, Brady Reid)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/flipping-indigenous-regional-development-in-newfoundland-upside-down-lessons-from-australia" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In an era of <a href="https://www.activesustainability.com/climate-change/global-boiling/?_adin=02021864894">“global boiling”</a> the Canadian government has set ambitious targets to transition towards a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">net-zero future</a> with important caveats that this transition must be <a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/canadas-net-zero-future/recommendations/">fair and inclusive</a>. </p>
<p>However, does this future include vibrant, self-determined Indigenous communities? Research shows that inadequate engagement between settler governments, corporations and Indigenous communities leads to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101897">poor indications of reconciliation</a>. </p>
<p>This is a troubling reality given the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/aboriginal-people-economic-conditions">ongoing socio-economic challenges</a> imposed on Indigenous communities across the land now called Canada.</p>
<h2>Risk and uncertainty</h2>
<p>Everywhere in Canada has unique, and equally important, developmental considerations and climate risks.</p>
<p>For regional Ktaqmkuk (Newfoundland) Mi’kmaw communities in Nujio’qonik, (the St. George’s Bay region), the uncertainty of the future is complicated by large-scale, natural resource developments. </p>
<p>A clear example of one such development is Project Nujio’qonik, billed as the <a href="https://worldenergygh2.com/about/">world’s first large-scale green hydrogen project in western Newfoundland and Labrador</a>. </p>
<p>Mi’kmaw communities and leaders, such as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/calvin-white-powwow-qa-1.6907384">Elder Calvin White</a>, led the movement for recognition of the Mi’kmaq in Ktaqmkuk post-Confederation, and continue to do so today. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://www.sac-isc.gc.ca/eng/1319805325971/1572459825339">controversial</a> establishment of the Qalipu Mi’kmaq First Nation has hampered efforts by Mi’kmaw across the west coast of Ktaqmkuk to fully realize effective stewardship and control over decisions impacting communities and surrounding territories. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Indigenous Protected and Conserved Areas are an important example of self-governance for Indigenous Peoples. Overview of IPCAs produced by the Conservation Through Reconciliation Partnership.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The complexities behind the establishment of the Qalipu Mi'kmaq First Nation continue to be <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/qalipu-enrolment-court-decision-1.6882390">challenged in court</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/outintheopen/stranger-in-your-own-land-1.4407020/mi-kmaq-communities-divided-over-federal-government-s-qalipu-band-membership-decisions-1.4407060">families remain divided to this day</a>. </p>
<p>While the situation may seem intractable there are surprising insights to be gained from the experiences of Indigenous groups halfway around the world. </p>
<h2>18,000 km away</h2>
<p>Despite being geographically poles apart, both Newfoundland and Tasmania have been described by locals and scholars as <a href="https://figshare.utas.edu.au/articles/thesis/Artists_and_the_articulation_of_islandness_sense_of_place_and_story_in_Newfoundland_and_Tasmania/23240777">“mirror islands” with striking linkages and similarities throughout history</a>. </p>
<p>Indigenous groups in both regions have fought for decades to assert their rights and agency on traditional territory and continue to push back against a shared <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/publicat/royalcomm/research/Hanrahan.pdf">history of erasure</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/winning-indigenous-aboriginal-rights-in-tasmania/11202128">extinction myths</a>. </p>
<p>Inequalities continue to facilitate patterns of uneven growth and opportunity with real impacts upon local communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/closing-the-first-nations-employment-gap-will-take-100-years-205290">Closing the First Nations employment gap will take 100 years</a>
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<p>In response to growing concerns for the future of their communities Mi’kmaw leaders Chief Joanne Miles of the Flat Bay Band and Chief Peggy White of the Three Rivers Mi’kmaq Band travelled to Tasmania with PhD candidate Brady Reid. </p>
<p>The goal of the trip was to share knowledge and learn about advances in <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/connections-to-sea-country-cultural-fisheries-program-launched-for-tasmanias-aboriginal-people/ka7rfqm5f">sustainable and culturally-grounded economic development projects within Australia</a>. </p>
<p>The exchange took place between Nov. 4-16, 2023 in Hobart, the capital city of Tasmania, with some excursions to various locations around the southern part of the island. </p>
<p>At the invite of local Indigenous leaders, Professor Emma Lee of the National Centre for Reconciliation, Truth, and Justice at Federation University and Uncle Rodney Dillon of the <a href="https://www.ilsc.gov.au/">Land and Sea Aboriginal Corporation</a> — among others — shared Indigenous regional development and recognition initiatives. </p>
<h2>Shared lessons</h2>
<p>Recognizing, renewing and supporting Indigenous management and stewardship over traditional territories and resources is a key step in re-shaping settler-Indigenous relationships. This is especially true for Indigenous communities denied access to treaty resources and rights.</p>
<p>Though not without challenges, the Tasmanian and Australian governments have <a href="https://www.frdc.com.au/supporting-cultural-fisheries-research-aboriginal-tasmanians">supported Indigenous-led research and partnership development</a>. These efforts have helped to realize an economically viable and culturally significant fisheries industry. </p>
<p>Through Tasmanian Aboriginal efforts to align supportive federal policy with state regulations, top-down strategies have transformed local reluctance into regional development opportunities. </p>
<p>Lessons gleaned from discussions with federal and state representatives in Tasmania have helped shape future strategies to realize self-determined resource governance in Ktaqmkuk.</p>
<p>The shared experiences in colonial history — and the mutual legacy of marine industries — between the islands of Tasmania and Ktaqmkuk have led to similarities in actions Indigenous Peoples can take. </p>
<p>Actions which can serve to share knowledge, collectively strengthen self-determination rights, and develop social licence strategies that favour Indigenous-led regional development while re-shaping relationships across all levels of government.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-nature-agreement-underscores-the-need-for-true-reconciliation-with-indigenous-nations-217427">Canada’s Nature Agreement underscores the need for true reconciliation with Indigenous nations</a>
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<p>While change takes time, it is incredibly important that settler government, agencies and representatives support initiatives led by Indigenous communities and do not create barriers in bureaucratic policy or procedure, especially when strong business cases are evident. </p>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>Recommendations from the <a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/">Canadian Climate Institute</a> support green policy action that improve social and economic indicators, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-needs-to-set-its-businesses-up-for-success-in-the-clean-energy-transition-206276">business interests and opportunities</a>. </p>
<p>After learning more about the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/connections-to-sea-country-cultural-fisheries-program-launched-for-tasmanias-aboriginal-people/ka7rfqm5f">Tasmanian cultural fisheries pilot</a> we kept asking ourselves, why not assert Mi’kmaw communities as leaders in regional development over our own traditional territories? </p>
<p>In making clear statements that align traditional knowledge with renewable energy policies, Indigenous Peoples are <a href="https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/news/were-facing-extinction-as-a-people-in-our-territory-indigenous-leaders-from-bay-st-george-south-and-port-au-port-peninsula-say-wind-energy-project-is-needed-100914527/">creating the terms</a> for effective and fair transitions to a better future. </p>
<p>We saw this in Tasmania, where a groundswell of support for cultural fisheries operating within commercial quota led to a fascinating and consequential shift in relationship-building. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on the solar initiatives of the Métis Nation of Alberta produced by the CBC. Indigenous People have huge potential to create the terms of Canada’s renewable energy future.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Traditional institutions, such as universities and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/fisheries.html">fishery statutory authorities</a>, remain the obvious places of collaboration. However, it was the non-traditional avenues, such as Indigenous procurement initiatives at <a href="https://www.govhouse.tas.gov.au/vice-regal-news/professor-emma-lee-national-centre-reconciliation-truth-and-justice-federation">Government House</a>, that were most surprising and fruitful. </p>
<p>Indigenous-led regional development, as a fair and equitable process, is about recognizing that Indigenous Peoples want Indigenous cultural innovation to advance all sectors of society. </p>
<p>In re-shaping settler-Indigenous relationships, the emphasis here is on how self-assertion of rights has mutual gains at its heart. If renewable energy can come together to support cultural fisheries for healthier relationships, then our unique island character is retained as a strength rather than a deficit.</p>
<p>We learned and shared invaluable knowledge from a variety of stakeholders in Tasmania that have sparked ideas and creative strategies for improved relations at home in Ktaqmkuk. </p>
<p>Importantly, we know that for effective transitions to a better future and more sustainable society, the only way forward is to respect the terms of Indigenous Peoples’ regional development goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article follows a two-week Indigenous exchange from Newfoundland, Canada to Tasmania, Australia that received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the University of Waterloo, and the Marine Biomass Innovation Project (<a href="http://www.mbiproject.ca">www.mbiproject.ca</a>). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chief Joanne Miles is the Chief of the Flat Bay Band.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chief Peggy (Margaret) White (BA, JD, LLM) is the Chief of the Three Rivers Mi'kmaq Band. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Lee is a board director of the Land and Sea Aboriginal Corporation Tasmania and is a current recipient of the Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation.</span></em></p>The lessons from Tasmania are clear. Asserting Indigenous rights in Canada can be mutually beneficial for all.Brady Reid, PhD Student, Sustainabilty Management, University of WaterlooChief Joanne Miles, Chief of the Flat Bay BandChief Peggy (Margaret) White, Chief of the Three Rivers Mi'kmaq BandEmma Lee, Professor, National Centre for Reconciliation, Truth, and Justice, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209972024-01-11T22:04:23Z2024-01-11T22:04:23Z2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In 2015, most countries, including Canada, signed on to the Paris Climate Agreement which set the objective of <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">“holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing the limit of 1.5 C to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change</a>.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/temperature-records-shattered-across-the-world-as-tourists-flock-to-experience-the-heat-210038">Temperature records shattered across the world as tourists flock to experience the heat</a>
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<p>On Jan. 9, 2024, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) announced that their <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">analysis confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record since 1850</a>, when humans began burning fossil fuels at a major scale. The global average temperature was 1.48 C warmer than pre-industrial levels and much warmer (0.17 C) than 2016, the previous warmest year.</p>
<p>The map of surface air temperature anomalies around the globe, compared to the 1991–2020 average, shows large geographical variations and that some of the warmest areas are in Canada.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A figure depicting global surface temperature anomalies in 2023." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568953/original/file-20240111-25-4zxy0w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A figure depicting global surface temperature anomalies in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(C3S/ECMWF)</span></span>
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<h2>Rising temperatures</h2>
<p>Leading scientists are <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/planet-racing-toward-dead-end-3c-temperature-rise-un-chief-warns-13011891">predicting that 2024 will be even warmer</a> as the global mean temperature continues to rise.</p>
<p>These rising temperatures are leading to more extreme weather events that impact societies around the world and across Canada. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane have continued to increase and reached record levels in 2023, reaching 419 parts-per-million (ppm) of carbon dioxide concentrations, which was 2.4 ppm higher than in 2022.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">How 2023's record heat worsened droughts, floods and bushfires around the world</a>
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<p>The CCCS also noted that, in 2023, many extreme events were recorded across the globe, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/statistically-impossible-heat-extremes-are-here-we-identified-the-regions-most-at-risk-204480">heat waves</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">floods</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/faster-disaster-climate-change-fuels-flash-droughts-intense-downpours-and-storms-213242">droughts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-wildfires-an-area-larger-than-the-netherlands-has-been-burned-so-far-this-year-heres-what-is-causing-them-207577">wildfires</a>.</p>
<p>On Jan. 10, the World Economic Forum published its <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/global-risks-report-2024-live-press-conference/">2024 Global Risks Report</a>, ranking global risks by severity over the next ten years. Extreme weather events are ranked to be the highest risk, leading to loss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss.</p>
<h2>Canada’s unique climate</h2>
<p>Climate warming is <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR_FULLREPORT-EN-FINAL.pdf">not uniform due to a range of factors, including internal climate variability and regional variations</a> in climate feedback and heat uptake.</p>
<p>In general, warming has been strongest at high northern latitudes and stronger over land than oceans. Global average temperature is greatly influenced by the oceans, which cover about 70 per cent of the planet and have large heat capacity, so they warm much slower than land areas.</p>
<p>Since Canada has a large land mass, much of which is located at high northern latitudes, warming across Canada has been about twice the global average and in the Canadian Arctic, the warming has been about three times higher. Loss of snow and sea ice reduces the reflectivity of the surface, resulting in stronger warming of ecosystems and increased absorption of solar radiation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-canadian-courts-are-taking-on-climate-change-220090">How Canadian courts are taking on climate change</a>
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<p>Surface temperatures are <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex">highly linked to the temperatures in the troposphere, which is the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere</a>. </p>
<p>The troposphere includes most of the clouds and weather and varies from 18–20 kilometres in depth at the equator to about six kilometres near the poles. This smaller depth in the Arctic can result in more warming due to the heat energy from solar radiation or other processes.</p>
<h2>Feedback processes</h2>
<p>Enhanced warming for Canada as a whole, and for the Canadian Arctic in particular, is part of a climate phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification.” The climate response to <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/radiative-forcing">radiative forcing</a> from greenhouse gases is determined by subsequent processes and feedback within the climate system. Climate feedback in the Arctic enhance the warming from greenhouse gas forcing.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A figure showing historical observations of annual mean surface temperature with Canada and the Canadian Arctic well-above the global average." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568956/original/file-20240111-23-58lg9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A figure showing historical observations of annual mean surface temperature with Canada and the Canadian Arctic well above the global average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Environment Canada Climate Research Division)</span></span>
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<p>Feedback mechanisms make different contributions to warming, depending on the region of the world. Snow and ice reflect considerable solar energy back to space. When warming melts snow and ice, this causes the now-darker surface to absorb more solar radiation and heat. </p>
<p>Another issue is that atmospheric components radiate energy back to space, cooling the climate somewhat, but in the Arctic, this cooling effect is weaker and there is a relatively larger warming response at higher latitudes. Another factor is that in the Arctic, the increase in clouds enhances warming by trapping heat near the surface. </p>
<h2>Urgent action is needed</h2>
<p>The enhanced rates of warming over Canada and the Canadian Arctic are due to a unique combination of feedback mechanisms.</p>
<p>The year 2023 demonstrated the devastating impacts of the climate extremes that can and will occur in even the best case 1.5 C climate scenario hoped for by the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Canada, and particularly our north, will warm much faster than the global mean. This reality should have the effect of motivating governments at all levels — and citizens — to reduce the historic complacency displayed by most governments around the world.</p>
<p>The time is overdue to take comprehensive and strong actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to fully implement adaptation actions to make our societies and citizens less vulnerable and more resilient.</p>
<p>Through <a href="https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/geographypub/369">enabling communities across Canada to proactively advance climate resilience</a> we can effectively reduce the risk of adverse climate impacts and prevent losses and damages during the extremes that a warming climate will bring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gordon McBean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada, and particularly the Canadian Arctic, is warming at a considerably higher rate than the global average. The consequences for Canada could be devastating.Gordon McBean, Professor Emeritus, Department of Geography and Environment, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.