Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Individual Australians are in a recession, with per-person income slipping since mid-2022. Interest rates are falling overseas. So forget rate hikes: the RBA’s next move is likely to be down.
How do we know if prices are going up across the whole economy, or just for some products? One solution is to create an index of price changes across the entire economy – but this isn’t perfect.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Reserve Bank will decide whether to hike or hold rates next Tuesday. The
bank’s new deputy governor has offered us some clues to which way they might go.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Only one-third of the top economists surveyed give Jim Chalmers’ third budget an A or a B, down from two-thirds in 2023. Many say it left big issues unaddressed.
Investors, homebuyers and central bankers all have reason to be irritated by the latest data, and inflation isn’t licked just yet. But the numbers also show reason for optimism.
Peter Whiteford, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Unemployment and related payments for working-age people were given a welcome boost in last year’s budget. But they remain well below pensions, and far from adequate.
The real question in the minds of many economists is what the trend in inflation will be going forward, and when interest rates will begin to fall and bring relief to Canadians.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Per person, we’re spending less this year – even on this year’s much hyped Black Friday sales. If that continues over summer and inflation stays low, a rate hike in February 2024 looks unlikely.