tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/countries-to-watch-in-2017-35636/articlesCountries to watch in 2017 – The Conversation2017-02-28T00:33:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/732772017-02-28T00:33:03Z2017-02-28T00:33:03ZNigeria<figure class="align-left zoomable">
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<p>Known as the “Giant of Africa”, Nigeria is the continent’s most populous state (<a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/overview">170 million people</a>) and one of its largest economies. It is home to over 300 ethnic groups and 500 languages.</p>
<p>Nigeria faces a number of social, economic, political and security challenges. Militant religious movements are not new in Nigeria, but the rise in 2009 of the violent Islamist movement <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-explaining-nigerias-boko-haram-and-its-violent-insurgency/">Boko Haram</a> has tested the country’s reputation. </p>
<p>When President Muhammadu Buhari was elected in 2015, anti-Boko Haram forces were deployed with regional neighbours. Since then, the Nigerian government claims to have <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35173618">“technically” defeated</a> the group by ousting them from their <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/24/boko-haram-ousted-last-remaining-stronghold-sambisa-forest-says/">“last” remaining stronghold</a> in Sambisa forest, in the north-eastern state of Borno. </p>
<p>Although this is a positive development, it is likely Boko Haram’s remaining members are on the run, dispersed into the unknown territories of the Lake Chad Basin area. The group’s location should worry security watchers and government officials. Are members dispersed across Niger or Cameroon? Have they reached <a href="https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/al-shabab">al Shabaab</a> territory in the east or that of AQIM (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) in the north? </p>
<p>Also, in 2017 a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/03/islamic-state-announces-new-leader-of-boko-haram-who-vows-war-against-christians/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks">rivalry</a> between <a href="https://www.counterextremism.com/extremists/abubakar-shekau">Abubakar Shekau</a>, Boko Haram’s most popular leader, and <a href="https://www.counterextremism.com/extremists/abu-musab-al-barnawi">Abu Musab al-Barnawi</a>, who is claimed to have been <a href="http://studies.aljazeera.net/en/reports/2016/10/split-isis-aligned-boko-haram-group-161027113247008.html">appointed by ISIS to replace Shekau</a>, could complicate insecurity in the Lake Chad region. This should be closely monitored. </p>
<p>As should Boko Haram’s actions if they emerge elsewhere. Security watchers and governments in 2017 will have to see if, for instance, the group will continue to <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/04/boko-haram-children-suicide-bombers-160412093755915.html">use minors</a> in suicide bombings as their new strategy.</p>
<p>The election of Buhari, a northerner and Muslim, has also led to a <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/08/nigeria-is-coming-apart-at-the-seamsbiafra/">resurgence of secessionist</a> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-politics-biafra-insight-idUSKBN0TJ1WM20151130">sentiments in the south</a>, which has been seen to partly represent discontent with the northern president. While militants in the Niger Delta area are <a href="http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/02/recap-mabaka-says-biafra-agitation-spear-headed-elites-not-children/">an ongoing phenomenon</a>, secessionist campaigns in the area may increase. </p>
<p>They will likely take on a religious and ethnic binary in opposition to the north.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Dan Suleiman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Known as the “Giant of Africa”, Nigeria is the continent’s most populous state (170 million people) and one of its largest economies. It is home to over 300 ethnic groups and 500 languages. Nigeria faces…Muhammad Dan Suleiman, PhD Candidate & Teaching Associate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/725002017-02-28T00:32:46Z2017-02-28T00:32:46ZPhilippines<figure class="align-right zoomable">
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<p>The Philippines <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-28/rodrigo-duterte-officially-declared-philippines-election-winner/7455682">grabbed global attention</a> in May 2016 when Rodrigo Duterte was elected president by a landslide. Often described as <a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2044475/did-philippines-trump-east-predict-americas-duterte-west">“Trump of the East”</a>, Duterte has gained international notoriety for his <a href="http://time.com/4480188/obama-whore-rodrigo-duterte-remarks/">off-the-cuff remarks</a>: from calling Pope Francis a “son of a whore” to declaring the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/24/us-philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-separation-comments">Philippines was “separating”</a> from the United States. </p>
<p>However, there is a distinction between what the president says and what he does. While Duterte has developed a reputation for his controversial speeches, his policies, for the most part, remain consistent. </p>
<p>The Philippines’ economy is doing well. Economic ministers have committed to high infrastructure spending, especially in cities outside the capital. Meanwhile, tax reforms and cutting of red tape are <a href="https://business.inquirer.net/222369/tax-reform-remains-top-priority">top priorities</a> for the government. The World Bank recently upgraded its <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/12/15/world-bank-upgrades-growth-projections-for-the-philippines">growth projection</a> for the country’s economy to 6.9% in 2017 and 7% in 2018. </p>
<p>Debates on shifting to a <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/849971/fast-track-federalism-duterte-urges-congress">federal system</a>, allowing for localised forms of governance across the islands, have also begun. And there has been talk about relaxing restrictions on foreign ownership. It will be interesting to see the precise character these reforms will take.</p>
<p>Several divisive issues will be worth monitoring. Duterte’s hardline, shoot-to-kill approach to the war on drugs has <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/01/24/deadly-milestone-philippines-abusive-drug-war">claimed over 7,000 lives</a>. After exposed corruption in the police force at the start of the year, the president ordered a dissolution of the anti-drug unit. This means the future of the bloody war on drugs is uncertain.</p>
<p>Also uncertain is the future of the peace talks with communist rebels that have been in conflict with the government for nearly five decades. After an <a href="http://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/02/03/17/timeline-govt-cpp-npa-ceasefire-breakdown">optimistic start</a> in three rounds of negotiations, the president cancelled the ceasefire agreement after military men were ambushed last January.</p>
<p>Another issue to watch is how the government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-31/china-says-situation-at-disputed-scarborough-shoal-unchanged/7982010">plans to engage with China</a> in terms of the disputed Scarborough Shoal.</p>
<p>Finally, natural disasters, particularly typhoons, continue to be the most disruptive risk to the country. Let’s hope another disaster like Typhoon Haiyan (the strongest storm that made landfall in recent history) doesn’t strike this year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Curato receives funding from the Australian Research Council for her Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE150101866) </span></em></p>The Philippines grabbed global attention in May 2016 when Rodrigo Duterte was elected president by a landslide. Often described as “Trump of the East”, Duterte has gained international notoriety for his…Nicole Curato, Postdoctoral Fellow, Institute for Governance & Policy Analysis, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/717062017-02-28T00:26:58Z2017-02-28T00:26:58ZTurkey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158621/original/image-20170227-18197-dn5rgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A supporter of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds a flag before Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Wolfgang Rattay </span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left zoomable">
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<p>Turkey tops the list of countries to watch in the Middle East. Surprising shifts in domestic and foreign Turkish policy will have an important influence on the web of complex developments in the entire region.</p>
<p>Domestically, Turkey will be shaped by the campaign and aftermath of proposed constitutional changes being put to a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38883556">referendum in April</a>. The changes propose an executive presidency that in effect removes separation of powers and installs presidential top-down control mechanisms without any checks and balances.</p>
<p>The reality is that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is looking at legalising and perpetuating the emergency powers he is already enjoying while blocking avenues for credible opposition.</p>
<p>The result is not in the bag for Erdogan, as the “no” vote appears to lead in opinion polls. Accordingly, with more than 150 prominent journalists behind bars and independent media almost completely shut down, Erdogan-sponsored media will likely trump up the “yes” vote over the 50% mark.</p>
<p>Significantly, although fear politics and a plea for political stability won Erdogan elections in the past, the same tactics are likely to push voters to “no” rather than risk an uncertain systemic change.</p>
<p>If the proposed changes are rejected, Erdogan will hardly abandon his ambition for absolute power. Turkey will increasingly become a police state. The same changes, worded differently, will likely be put to another vote at the end of the year.</p>
<p>If the changes pass, Erdogan will claim it as the victory of democracy and use this as a pretext to end all political opposition, close down what remains of independent media and seize the properties of big businesses that sponsor political opponents. He will also take steps towards claiming leadership of the Muslim world.</p>
<p>Regardless of the referendum result, the Turkish economy will continue to decline as the inevitable outcome of authoritarianism. Erdogan will blame the decline on an international conspiracy of credit agencies, which have already dropped Turkey’s credit rating to <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/09/24/moodys-turkey-credit-rating/">“junk” status</a>.</p>
<p>As Turkey continues to <a href="http://theglobepost.com/2017/01/26/russias-new-ally-turkey-bashes-nato-as-daily-routine/">drift away</a> from the Western block, its foreign policy will largely hinge on new US President Donald Trump. Interestingly, Erdogan was silent on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/trumps-travel-ban">Trump’s ban</a> on travel from seven Muslim-majority countries to the US. Erdogan is wary of Trump’s unpredictability, especially when <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-sanctions-case-against-turkish-trader-reza-zarrab-to-move-forward-1476722166">the US court case</a> of businessman Reza Zarrab has the potential to take corruption allegations about his government to the international stage.</p>
<p>Erdogan quickly <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2788489/turkey-detains-some-400-isis-suspects-in-nationwide-operation/">orchestrated mass arrests</a> of Islamic State (IS) supporters in Turkey days before the <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/new-cia-director-pompeo-to-visit-turkey-on-feb-9-in-first-visit-abroad.aspx?PageID=238&NID=109474&NewsCatID=358">new CIA director’s first foreign visit</a> to Turkey. By positioning himself as a staunch enemy of IS, Erdogan aims to win Trump as a key ally to support his plans for leadership of the Muslim world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mehmet Ozalp is affiliated with ISRA Australia.</span></em></p>Turkey tops the list of countries to watch in the Middle East. Surprising shifts in domestic and foreign Turkish policy will have an important influence on the web of complex developments in the entire…Mehmet Ozalp, Associate Professor in Islamic Studies, Director of The Centre for Islamic Studies and Civilisation and Executive Member of Public and Contextual Theology, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/724962017-02-28T00:26:45Z2017-02-28T00:26:45ZSaudi Arabia<figure class="align-left zoomable">
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<p>This year will continue to be a period of great uncertainty in Saudi Arabia. After a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36083990">deterioration of relations</a> with the United States under President Obama, the kingdom will be focused on strengthening ties with the new Trump administration.</p>
<p>Early signs, such as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-30/donald-trump-white-house-defends-us-immigration-ban/8221682">Saudi preclusion from the recent travel ban</a>, look positive. However, Trump’s erratic temperament and seeming ignorance of basic geo-strategic realities mean this is far from assured. </p>
<p>As a result, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir will likely intensify the Washington charm offensive and continue to stress Saudi Arabia’s indispensability to regional security and terrorism matters. It’s a <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/13/trump-is-going-to-regret-not-having-a-grand-strategy/">transactional language</a> that should appeal to the former property mogul. </p>
<p>Regionally, the geopolitical competition between Riyadh and Tehran is set to intensify. Saudi influence in Iraq has been overshadowed by Iran’s far more successful efforts to influence politics in the war-torn country. </p>
<p>In Syria, Iran, along with its Russian ally, has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/opinion/assad-has-won-in-syria-but-syria-hardly-exists.html">all but assured the survival of the Assad regime</a>, despite heavy investment and protestations to the contrary by Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>Saudis also remain extremely concerned about Iranian influence on their periphery in Bahrain and Yemen. This has placed the Saudi leadership on the back foot, which will likely drive it to look for new means to check what it sees as the Islamic Republic’s aspiring regional hegemony.</p>
<p>On the domestic front, Riyadh will continue to pursue the economic restructuring of the <a href="http://vision2030.gov.sa/en">Vision 2030</a> initiative to wean the population off the oil teat. Despite some elite optimism, the grandiosity of the reforms and the current political leadership’s inexperience with implementing such massive structural changes mean that the full realisation of Vision 2030 by its target date is unlikely.</p>
<p>Terrorism by Islamic State and its sympathisers will likely continue inside Saudi Arabia at low intensity, but will not prove a significant threat to the state. Despite some agitation for political and social reforms, mass protests reminiscent of 2011 remain highly unlikely in the near future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Rich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This year will continue to be a period of great uncertainty in Saudi Arabia. After a deterioration of relations with the United States under President Obama, the kingdom will be focused on strengthening…Ben Rich, Lecturer in International Relations & Security Studies, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/725692017-02-28T00:25:50Z2017-02-28T00:25:50ZSahel region, Africa<figure class="align-left zoomable">
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<p>The Sahel region of Africa is a 3,860-kilometre arc-like land mass lying to the immediate south of the Sahara Desert and stretching east-west across the breadth of the African continent. </p>
<p>A largely semi-arid belt of barren, sandy and rock-strewn land, the Sahel marks the physical and cultural transition between the continent’s more fertile tropical regions to the south and its desert in the north.</p>
<p>Geographic definitions of the Sahel region vary. Commonly, the Sahel stretches from Senegal on the Atlantic coast, through parts of Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Sudan to Eritrea on the Red Sea coast. </p>
<p>Culturally and historically, the Sahel is a shoreline between the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. This means it is the site of interaction between Arabic, Islamic and nomadic cultures from the north, and indigenous and traditional cultures from the south.</p>
<p>Concerns abound over the region’s vast spaces, often beyond the reach of the state, in an era of violent criminal and political movements operating across borders. The Sahel also suffers from ethno-religious tensions, political instability, poverty and natural disasters.</p>
<p>In recent years, the Sahel has been in the global spotlight due to famines, religious terrorism, anti-state rebellions, and arms, drugs and human trafficking. These developments are the product of both local and global dynamics. They remain substantial challenges for the region in 2017.</p>
<p>In Mali, Islamist extremism will remain a threat, despite national and international efforts to halt it. Islamist fighters may be dispersed, but not halted. The al Qaeda-affiliated al-Mourabitoun group, operating from Mali, have <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/16/world/burkina-faso-attack-al-qaeda/">recently launched attacks</a> in Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast. </p>
<p>In Mauritania, a traditional route for drug and human trafficking between South America and Europe, the existence of sub-state militant activities in the greater Sahel region, and local governance challenges, make political violence a threat in 2017. </p>
<p>In Nigeria, despite claims that Boko Haram has technically been defeated, it is very likely that the group’s remaining members are on the run. A relaunch of “the jihad” <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35121188">from elsewhere in the Lake Chad Basin</a> area is therefore highly probable.</p>
<p>There have been positive developments as well. These include an emerging consolidation of support for democratic transitions of power through popular protests, and elite-led regional diplomatic and military interventions against unconstitutional changes of government or attempted unlawful retention of power. </p>
<p>The African Union and the <a href="http://www.uneca.org/oria/pages/ecowas-economic-community-west-african-states-0">Economic Community of West African States</a> (ECOWAS) have recently opposed unlawful takeover of power in Mali and Burkina Faso. In the Gambia, ECOWAS has prevented Yahya Jammeh’s attempt to unlawfully retain power in January 2017. Peaceful protests in Mauritania also promise some democratic gains.</p>
<p>Regional governance and integration projects have continued, with ECOWAS and other bodies such as the <a href="http://www.cblt.org/en/lake-chad-basin-commission-0">Lake Chad Basin Commission</a> and the <a href="http://www.uneca.org/oria/pages/eccas-economic-community-central-african-states">Economic Community of Central African States</a> (ECCAS) offering the promise of collective action to tackle major regional challenges, although so far with mixed success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Muhammad Dan Suleiman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Sahel region of Africa is a 3,860-kilometre arc-like land mass lying to the immediate south of the Sahara Desert and stretching east-west across the breadth of the African continent. A largely semi-arid…Muhammad Dan Suleiman, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728722017-02-28T00:25:43Z2017-02-28T00:25:43ZSouth Sudan<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158641/original/image-20170228-18232-4al1n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>South Sudan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/30/sudan-results-preliminary-support">seceded from Sudan</a> in 2011 after a protracted war of independence that started in 1955. </p>
<p>One internal struggle in this war was between the Sudan People’s Liberation Army’s (SPLA) leadership, headed by John Garang and his deputy Salva Kiir, on one side, and current rebel leader Riek Machar on the other. </p>
<p>In the early 2000s, these two factions united under Garang and Kiir to put pressure on Omar al-Bashir’s Sudanese government while negotiations on an internationally supported peace agreement were underway in Kenya. That agreement was signed in 2005, and the SPLA joined Bashir in a government of national unity in Khartoum.</p>
<p>This unity did not mean everything was excellent within the SPLA, but Garang made it appear that way. However, in 2005, Garang <a href="http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese-vice-president-13-others,10893">died in a helicopter crash</a>. Kiir became the leader with Machar as his deputy. Together they oversaw the 2011 South Sudanese secession referendum that the voters overwhelmingly supported. </p>
<p>A mere two years later, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – the political party that emerged out of the SPLA – began to fracture internally. The political conflict quickly reached crisis point and turned into a military confrontation between Kiir and Machar in 2013. This raged until 2016, when they <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/27/world/africa/riek-machar-south-sudan-opposition-leader-returns-as-part-of-peace-deal.html?_r=0">signed a peace deal</a> in Ethiopia.</p>
<p>Soon after his reinstatement as vice-president, Machar <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/taban-deng-gai-south-sudan-peace-160723183414622.html">again fled</a> the South Sudanese capital of Juba following an attack on his compound that he blamed on Kiir’s forces. Most of his fellow rebels stayed in Juba and elevated his deputy, Taban Deng Gai, to the position of leader and vice-president. </p>
<p>Although Taban Deng Gai is widely accepted as the new legitimate leader, elements of the rebel movement loyal to Machar are still very active on at least three borders – Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Unless these groups are integrated into society, South Sudan’s fragile peace is unlikely to stand.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Run does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Sudan seceded from Sudan in 2011 after a protracted war of independence that started in 1955. One internal struggle in this war was between the Sudan People’s Liberation Army’s (SPLA) leadership…Peter Run, PhD Candidate and Tutor, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/726532017-02-28T00:24:55Z2017-02-28T00:24:55ZVenezuela<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158205/original/image-20170224-32705-ldhl6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Venezuela’s major crises will continue in 2017. These include ongoing economic instability, over-reliance on the price of oil, shortages of food and electricity and increasing inequality. At the core is a history of political interference in the functions of economic and government and institutions.</p>
<p>Since Nicolás Maduro became President in 2013 following the death of socialist leader Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s dependence on oil exports has brought its economy to the brink of bankruptcy. Almost <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/18/6-things-you-need-to-know-about-venezuelas-political-and-economic-crisis/?utm_term=.0c2bbd94ec0d">95% of government revenue</a> comes from oil exports. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/18/6-things-you-need-to-know-about-venezuelas-political-and-economic-crisis/?utm_term=.0c2bbd94ec0d">price of oil has declined</a> by around 50% since 2013. Government revenue has reduced to critically low levels - from an annual US$80 billion to $US30 billion. Maduro’s administration has no leverage with which to fix Venezuela’s faltering economy and appease the unhappy middle classes that are its backbone.</p>
<p>Inflation is the highest in the world. From February 2015 until November 2016, it <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/inflation-cpi%20%22%22">rose from around 80%</a> to 800%. Daily food shortages continue to foster discontent and instability at every level of society. Murder, theft and kidnappings in major cities like Caracas, Maracaibo and Valencia are frequent.</p>
<p>History suggests successful economies are built on solid and effective institutions. These <a href="http://kysq.org/docs/North_91_Institutions.pdf">induce strong economic performance</a> over time. A consensus between political parties that guarantees independence for government and economic institutions may be the only way forward. Venezuelans live in hope.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72653/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexis Sergio Esposto is managing the Australia Awards Fellowships (AAF) program titled Nation Building in Argentina: Harnessing Australia’s Experience for Sustainable Development. The program is funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT).</span></em></p>Venezuela’s major crises will continue in 2017. These include ongoing economic instability, over-reliance on the price of oil, shortages of food and electricity and increasing inequality. At the core is…Alexis Sergio Esposto, Senior Lecturer, Economics, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/718072017-02-28T00:24:48Z2017-02-28T00:24:48ZBrazil<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158234/original/image-20170224-32701-1ieuzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Brazil is the ninth largest economy in the world, yet its real potential has never been realised. Having had a strong period of economic growth from 2003 to shortly after the global financial crisis, the quality of life for millions of people was improved.</p>
<p>Over the last 15 years or so, Brazil has experienced <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1759-3441.12052/abstract">a major transformation</a>. The country of almost 200 million people had high levels of inequality, yet managed to reduce poverty in a way not seen in many other parts of the world. Even the Asian powerhouses of China and India, with their incredible economic growth, <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5080.html">had less success in this area</a>.</p>
<p>During the same period, Brazil managed to formalise the jobs of millions of Brazilians. This occurred because of economic expansion, income equalisation policies and a commodities boom. The net effect has been an <a href="http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20130928_brazil.pdf">increase in the middle class</a> by 40 million people, or 20% of the population, in nearly ten years.</p>
<p>But many of these achievements came tumbling down amid <a href="http://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/brazil">corruption scandals</a> within much of Brazil’s political elite. Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s first female president, was impeached in August last year following accusations she had failed to adhere to budgetary laws. </p>
<p>Numerous other politicians from all sectors were involved in another <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-brazils-nine-horsemen-cracked-petrobras-bribery-scandal-1428334221">major corruption scandal</a> involving the state-run oil company Petrobras, which was nearly bankrupted due to a series of embezzlements. </p>
<p>Like most nations, Brazil <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/12/26/brazils-economy-goes-out-with-a-whimper/#7deba7148116">faces a period</a> of stagnant long-term economic growth. With the <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-economy-shrinks-again-in-third-quarter-1480505019">economy expected to grow</a> by 1% at most in 2017, Brazil is likely to experience the lowest economic growth of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nations. Such poor economic performance will continue to maintain periods of economic and social unrest in a nation that continually squanders great opportunities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexis Sergio Esposto is managing the Australia Awards Fellowships (AAF) program titled Nation Building in Argentina: Harnessing Australia’s Experience for Sustainable Development. The program is funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT).</span></em></p>Brazil is the ninth largest economy in the world, yet its real potential has never been realised. Having had a strong period of economic growth from 2003 to shortly after the global financial crisis, the…Alexis Sergio Esposto, Senior Lecturer, Economics, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/717862017-02-28T00:24:40Z2017-02-28T00:24:40ZUnited States<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157631/original/image-20170221-18640-1ue5pra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Uncertainty about Trump’s capacity to respond rationally to unexpected crises makes the coming year a dangerous one for America and the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCI3O7HFXP&SMLS=1&RW=1821&RH=1219#/SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCI3O7HFXP&SMLS=1&RW=1821&RH=1219&PN=3">Kevin Lamarque/Reuters</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155813/original/image-20170207-4230-qaaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155813/original/image-20170207-4230-qaaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155813/original/image-20170207-4230-qaaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155813/original/image-20170207-4230-qaaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155813/original/image-20170207-4230-qaaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155813/original/image-20170207-4230-qaaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155813/original/image-20170207-4230-qaaqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The breakdown of established liberal democratic norms has become the theme of Donald Trump’s election to the presidency of the United States. For this reason America and the White House are likely to be at the centre of many crises that unfold in 2017. Uncertainty about Trump’s capacity to respond rationally to unexpected crises makes the coming year a dangerous one for America and the world.</p>
<p>In Europe, the fear of instability and conflict is perhaps being felt most keenly. The new president has questioned the relevance of NATO while praising Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian rule. </p>
<p>Trump has also actively resisted, even denied, the findings of his own intelligence services of Russian interference in the US election. This is unprecedented behaviour and threatens to undermine the liberal democratic norms and institutions that have been essential to maintaining European security.</p>
<p>Closer to home, Trump has consistently characterised China as a threat to US economic interests. The possibility of a trade war between the two would have devastating consequences for the global economy. New US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has threatened military intervention in the South China Sea dispute, setting the scene for a military conflict.</p>
<p>In the Middle East, Trump has threatened to undo the decades-long work of reaching a diplomatic solution to the problem of Iran’s nuclear program. Coupled with his irresponsible remarks about nuclear weapons use, the potential for nuclear proliferation is deeply worrying.</p>
<p>Yet it is domestically that Trump could have the most destabilising impact. During his first few weeks in office he attacked the democratic bedrock of a free press, intimidated federal agencies to go silent on climate change, and began to unravel Obamacare and policies aimed at reducing America’s greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Trump has issued orders for immigration restrictions that are a flagrant abuse of human rights (which have since been overturned by a federal judge). He has moved to roll back progress on health care and women’s reproductive rights. And, in general, he has displayed an emotional incoherence and disregard for facts and evidence that is seriously alarming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kumuda Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The breakdown of established liberal democratic norms has become the theme of Donald Trump’s election to the presidency of the United States. For this reason America and the White House are likely to be…Kumuda Simpson, Lecturer in International Relations, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/718882017-02-28T00:23:43Z2017-02-28T00:23:43ZIndia<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158630/original/image-20170228-18197-grue06.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>This could be a year of reckoning for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party.</p>
<p>Five states, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur are set to go to the polls in February and March. These will be the first electoral tests faced by the BJP government following its shock <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21713842-benefits-withdrawing-86-rupees-circulation-remain-elusive">introduction of a demonetisation policy</a> that withdrew more than 80% of India’s currency from circulation in the name of cracking down on “black money”. </p>
<p>The policy’s botched execution has caused extensive economic hardship and lowered India’s economic growth rate. The country’s <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/business/budget/Highlights-of-Union-Budget-2017-18/article17127298.ece">recent budget</a> offers few new ideas for how to tackle key economic problems such as stagnating private investment, exports and jobs growth. </p>
<p>The poll in Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state with a population of 200 million, will be the most keenly watched. Modi has been popular in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP’s support among poorer Hindu voters in this state helped it win the <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/A-saffron-sweep-in-Uttar-Pradesh/article11640731.ece">2014 national election</a>. </p>
<p>Yet it faces a strong challenge in the electoral alliance that has been formed between the incumbent Samajwadi Party and the other major national party, the Indian National Congress. If this partnership thrives, it may help to rally a unified opposition alliance to the BJP at a national level. </p>
<p>The Punjab election will also be closely watched as the new <a href="http://www.aamaadmiparty.org/">Aam Admi Party</a>, currently in power in Delhi, seeks to consolidate its 2014 electoral gains in the state to emerge as a national political force. </p>
<p>Internationally, India’s relations with Pakistan remain tense following what India has called its <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-escalating-kashmir-attacks-tell-us-about-modis-changing-foreign-policy-66363">“surgical strikes”</a> against militants in Pakistani Kashmir in late 2016.</p>
<p>Indian concerns about Islamist militancy and Chinese expansionism may facilitate the building of a common agenda with the new Trump administration in the US. Yet, given liberal migration policies have become central to India’s international agenda - as a means of generating revenue from remittances and job opportunities for its young population - relations with an increasingly anti-immigrant and protectionist US may well become rocky.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71888/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Priya Chacko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This could be a year of reckoning for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party. Five states, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur are set to go to the polls in…Priya Chacko, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/731232017-02-28T00:23:17Z2017-02-28T00:23:17ZAfghanistan<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158628/original/image-20170228-18227-142ridl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Zenobia Ahmed</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Afghanistan’s challenges in 2017 will not be new ones, but those that have lingered from many years of war and violence. They involve armed conflict with the Taliban and related issues of terrorism, attacks on minorities, displacement, rehabilitation of refugees, and engendering gender equality and women’s political participation.</p>
<p>The biggest challenge will come from Taliban-led extremism and terrorism. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan blame each other for providing sanctuaries to terrorists unleashing violence in their territories.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/blast-hits-pakistan-lal-shahbaz-qalandar-sufi-shrine-170216144747128.html">most recent bombing</a> of the Sufi Shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar in Sehwan, Sindh on February 16 has escalated tensions with Pakistan. The border has been sealed. The Pakistani government is protesting the attacks and demanding the terrorists be handed over.</p>
<p>Afghanistan has repeatedly pointed out that both Pakistan and Iran are sponsoring terrorism in its territories and backing the Taliban. Afghanistan looks to India as a regional ally to put pressure on Pakistan, but more political will is needed from all sides to end this cycle of violence and fight extremism and terrorism. </p>
<p>Gender equality, women’s rights movements and law reforms have gained momentum. Public discourse and activism, along with international scrutiny, continues to put pressure on the government and the legislature. The continuous demand has been to include women in the peace talks.</p>
<p>A National Action Plan for <a href="https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/wps-afghanistan_national_action_plan_1325_0.pdf">implementing UN Resolution 1325</a>, which takes practical measures to uphold women’s rights while maintaining piece and security, was approved in 2015. The plan was further developed in 2016. However, no budget allocation and concrete implementation strategies have been identified. </p>
<p>Putting this plan into action will be the big task for 2017, and international pressure from women’s groups and donor agencies will be important to support local efforts.</p>
<p>Thirty young Afghani women in hijab <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-orchestra-idUSKBN1532N2">took the stage</a> at the World Economic Forum at Davos in January and performed in an orchestra. They received death threats and accusations of bringing dishonour to their families and communities. Their music is the ultimate act of resistance and courage that shows how destinies can be shaped in Afghanistan. </p>
<p>As the Pashto proverb says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Destiny is a saddled donkey, it goes wherever you lead.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Swati Parashar has received recearch funding from DFAT.</span></em></p>Afghanistan’s challenges in 2017 will not be new ones, but those that have lingered from many years of war and violence. They involve armed conflict with the Taliban and related issues of terrorism, attacks…Swati Parashar, Senior lecturer, University of GothenburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/726672017-02-28T00:10:23Z2017-02-28T00:10:23ZPakistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158626/original/image-20170228-18232-hlmezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Imran Khan, chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) political party, addresses his supporters at a campaign rally in Lahore.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mohsin Raza</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158235/original/image-20170224-32698-14xnxjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Zenobia Ahmed</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>As Pakistan moves closer to an election next year, 2017 will be marked by a political campaign by Imran Khan and other opponents to bring the Nawaz government to a premature end. </p>
<p>They will exploit <a href="http://www.mid-day.com/articles/imran-khan-files-proof-against-nawaz-sharif-in-panama-papers-case/17759156">allegations</a> that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif misled parliament when he failed to declare all the details of family properties in the UK. They will be facing a government that came to power with an overwhelming majority in the most-populous province, Punjab. </p>
<p>The government will creatively build on accelerating economic growth in Pakistan that has so far mostly gone unnoticed. The “quiet rise” of the Pakistani economy has resulted in <a href="http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/.../pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf">PricewaterhouseCoopers predicting</a> that Pakistan’s economy will be ranked among top-20 most powerful economies by 2030, placing it ahead of Australia. </p>
<p>The government’s economic policies are showing tangible results in Punjab, especially Lahore. Government figures will exploit international analysts’ predictions to boost claims they are making a real difference in the lives of Pakistani citizens.</p>
<p>Anticipated Chinese investment of more than $US50 billion flowing from the <a href="http://www.cpecinfo.com/home">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor</a> initiative will be critical in supporting these claims and making a difference for many who have so far not seen the benefits of urban infrastructure development.</p>
<p>However, corruption and chronic skill and energy shortages will continue blunting economic development. But the more positive economic outlook and the projected economic growth rate of over 5%, with China’s help, is likely to play a significant role in creating an environment in which the Nawaz government will come out stronger against its detractors. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156884/original/image-20170215-19631-u8rbz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156884/original/image-20170215-19631-u8rbz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156884/original/image-20170215-19631-u8rbz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156884/original/image-20170215-19631-u8rbz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156884/original/image-20170215-19631-u8rbz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156884/original/image-20170215-19631-u8rbz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156884/original/image-20170215-19631-u8rbz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Imran Khan speaks to supporters at a rally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Faisal Mahmood</span></span>
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<p>Foreign policy presents a far sterner challenge to Pakistan’s leaders. Closer US-Indian security relations mean it will be difficult to raise international support on the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/10537286">Kashmir issue</a> and maintain some semblance of a working relationship with the US.</p>
<p>Equally significant will be the likely impact of the policies announced by the Trump administration against immigration from Muslim-majority states. Even if these restrictions are not imposed on Pakistani citizens, the perception that the US government is pursuing an anti-Muslim agenda is likely to energise Islamist groups. They will claim heightened relevance in shaping developments in South Asia, if not the world.</p>
<p>The spate of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/16/thirty-killed-100-injured-isis-bomb-sufi-shrine-pakistan-sindh">terrorist attacks</a> in Pakistan (eight attacks in five days across the country) in February 2017 after the country enjoying some reprieve from militancy indicates that the militant Islamist groups, including Islamic State, would attempt to destabilise the country. </p>
<p>The government will face more vocal and assertive Islamic militant groups and its attempts to counter these groups by targeting those operating from across the border in Afghanistan would also complicate its already fragile relationship with Afghanistan. It would also continue to impact upon the lives of ordinary Pakistanis, <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/860790/80000-pakistanis-killed-in-us-war-on-terror-report/">who sustained</a> more than 48,504 casualties from 2004 to 2013.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samina Yasmeen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Pakistan moves closer to an election next year, 2017 will be marked by a political campaign by Imran Khan and other opponents to bring the Nawaz government to a premature end. They will exploit allegations…Samina Yasmeen, Director of Centre for Muslim States and Societies, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/717952017-02-28T00:10:02Z2017-02-28T00:10:02ZNorth Korea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158627/original/image-20170228-18227-1erz96b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People react as they see North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a mass rally and parade in Pyongyang.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Damir Sagolj</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155817/original/image-20170207-4245-fdusxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Zenobia Ahmed</span></span>
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<p>In 2017, the Korean Peninsula retains its status as “political hotspot”, due largely to the uncertainty surrounding North Korea’s nuclear intentions. Even in the context of the country’s most recent missile test, information regarding how North Korean leader Kim Jong-un plans to exploit the country’s growing nuclear capability is scarce. We also know very little about how the new Trump administration intends to formulate US policy towards North Korea.</p>
<p>In 2016, North Korea conducted two nuclear tests and launched around two dozen missiles, some of which have the potential to carry nuclear warheads. In his <a href="http://www.ncnk.org/resources/news-items/kim-jong-uns-speeches-and-public-statements-1/kim-jong-uns-2017-new-years-address">2017 new year address</a>, Kim Jong-un indicated the further expansion of these capabilities. He said the country had “entered the final state of preparation for the test launch of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)”. </p>
<p>On January 3, the incoming US president, Donald Trump, indicated that his White House would not tolerate North Korea testing an ICBM, tweeting <a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/816057920223846400?lang=en">“Won’t Happen”</a> in response to the new year address. </p>
<p>On February 12, in an unsurprising turn of events, North Korea tested a ballistic missile. While this was <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-korea-may-not-yet-have-a-long-range-missile-but-its-progress-is-worrying-73115">not an ICBM test</a>, it does clearly indicate <a href="https://piie.com/blogs/north-korea-witness-transformation/missile-test-its-capabilities-stupid">that North Korea’s capabilities are expanding</a>.</p>
<p>Trump’s response to the the test – which occurred during Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to the US – was measured, indicating at least a willingness to listen and confer with allies when there are no good policy options. </p>
<p>The Trump administration is conducting a review of North Korea policy, and it remains an open question as to how it might respond to further developments in that country’s missile and nuclear testing program. I consider just a few possible scenarios here. </p>
<p>Trump may decide to change little. In this scenario, he would continue his predecessor’s approach to North Korea: no negotiations without serious steps towards denuclearisation. </p>
<p>North Korea’s response to this approach under the Obama administration was a series of missile and nuclear tests. In the past, these provocations have led to bolstered deterrence, further sanctions and diplomatic or economic pressure on China to take the lead in resolving tensions on the Korean Peninsula. </p>
<p>Alternatively, Trump may consider <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korean-officials-are-preparing-to-come-to-us-for-talks-with-former-officials/2017/02/19/3f853c04-f6a8-11e6-9b3e-ed886f4f4825_story.html?utm_term=.5411dbdaa8f3">entering into dialogue with the North Koreans</a>. This could be beneficial and lead back to the negotiating table.</p>
<p>Yet history tells us that any US negotiating team wishing to make progress with Pyongyang must be prepared to weather a roundabout, non-linear process. And it is hard to imagine the Trump administration taking part in the type of give-and-take style of negotiation that characterises “deal-making” with North Korea.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71795/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danielle Chubb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 2017, the Korean Peninsula retains its status as “political hotspot”, due largely to the uncertainty surrounding North Korea’s nuclear intentions. Even in the context of the country’s most recent missile…Danielle Chubb, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728782017-02-28T00:09:50Z2017-02-28T00:09:50ZIndonesia<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158631/original/image-20170228-18227-hclbs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Zenobia Ahmed</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Jakarta’s <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/tag/Jakarta-gubernatorial-election">gubernatorial election</a> is by far the most significant political event of the year in Indonesia.</p>
<p>Not only is Jakarta Indonesia’s biggest and most important city, the election matters because of the part it plays in the country’s larger political process. A key reason is that, after the presidency, the governorship has the largest single constituency in the country. Crucially, the current president, Joko Widodo, showed how a politician from outside the traditional political elite could use the post as a stepping stone to national office.</p>
<p>The election reflects a number of key political forces at play in the country. On the one hand, it is a contest between the parties and factions that compete for influence on the national stage. But many also see it as a litmus test of Indonesia’s democratic system. </p>
<p>The incumbent, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, known as Ahok, is a Christian who came into office following Widodo’s election. This is the first time he has faced election. In the build-up to the February ballot, Ahok has been subject to what many regard as a well-organised campaign to push him from office, based on concerns that he is not Muslim. </p>
<p>The governor is on trial for <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/10/24/ahok-explains-to-police-about-religious-defamation-allegation.html">religious defamation</a>, charges he claims are politically motivated. Even if he is elected, he may not be able to take office as he may be convicted.</p>
<p>Mass protests followed the allegation against Ahok last October, and there is widespread concern the election will bring social and religious divisions to the surface in the diverse nation. </p>
<p>The first round of elections was held on 15 February. Ahok <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/jakarta-governor-election-voters-set-to-return-to-polls-for-runoff-in-april-20170215-gudxtb.html">looks to have secured</a> the largest share of the vote, around 42%, but as he failed to achieve more than 50% of the vote, a run-off election will be required. Surprisingly, the second placed candidate was not Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, son of the former president but Anies Baswedan. The run-off election will be held on 19 April.</p>
<p>How the election plays out, the social tensions it reveals and the stresses it places on Indonesian democracy will have ramifications for years to come, most obviously in the 2019 presidential campaign.</p>
<p>This year also marks the 50th anniversary of ASEAN, the Southeast Asian club of states that has been central to Indonesia’s foreign policy. Under President Widodo, Indonesia has shown a greater level of ambivalence towards the institution than any previous administration. Indonesian leadership has been key to the grouping’s success and this year we will see whether or not Jakarta continues to drift away from ASEAN.</p>
<p>Finally, the year will be an important one in Indonesia-China relations. From tensions over the South China Sea to growing resentment toward Chinese investment in the country, Indonesia has increasingly strained ties with China. Many will be watching to see which way the relationship turns this year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72878/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Bisley is executive director of La Trobe Asia which has received funding from Commonwealth Government. He is also a member of the Australian Institute of International Affairs national executive which also receives funding from the Commonwealth Government. </span></em></p>Jakarta’s gubernatorial election is by far the most significant political event of the year in Indonesia. Not only is Jakarta Indonesia’s biggest and most important city, the election matters because of…Nick Bisley, Executive Director of La Trobe Asia and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728642017-02-28T00:06:01Z2017-02-28T00:06:01ZWar, conflict, economic strife: the world in 2017 is rife with hot spots, but leavened by hope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158624/original/image-20170228-18236-3g86dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some of the global pressure points in 2017. Below is the analysis of each country, grouped by region.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In all the attention rightfully given to the new US administration and Brexit, one could be forgiven for forgetting that other difficult political situations exist around the world. But they do exist, and in the uncertainty that surrounds global governance in 2017, this risk of human suffering is great.</p>
<p>One <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/04/2017-may-be-the-biggest-year-for-political-risk-since-the-end-of-world-war-ii-expert.html">London School of Economics expert</a> has said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think that this year is probably the biggest year for political risk since the end of the World War II.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As relations between the US and Russia, the US and China, the UK and the EU start to recalibrate, no-one quite knows what the many ripple effects might be. Think of bushfire season and the underlying conditions that make a fire much more likely. We are in bushfire season for foreign policy, and the emergency services are missing in action. </p>
<p>Spare a thought for new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/01/will-antonio-guterres-be-the-uns-best-ever-secretary-general">UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres</a>, who starts every day with a briefing on world crises and a dwindling budget. He has begged world leaders to make 2017 <a href="https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/new-un-chief-guterres-pledges-make-2017-year-peace">a year of peace</a>. Already, Guterres is having trouble with getting the chiefs he wants for missions, with the US <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/chief-regrets-veto-palestinian-libya-envoy-170213133120804.html?src=ilaw">vetoing</a> the Palestinian candidate for the post of Special Envoy to Libya. </p>
<p>In some cases of political upheaval, power might transfer or rights may be claimed without too much impact on ordinary people’s lives, such at the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30076941">Velvet Revolution</a> in 1989. But more often political crises have economic and social costs, especially if there is violence or long street protests. Stock markets crash, children suffer interrupted education, health and transport infrastructure are affected, nutrition suffers, expats leave, diaspora stay away, people are displaced over borders, crucial legislation is not passed, and so on. Indian economist Amartya Sen famously made the link between starvation, famine and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/01/arts/does-democracy-avert-famine.html">governance</a>. </p>
<p>So political conflict must be monitored carefully. What will it take to peacefully resolve these current situations in 2017, and what tools does the international community have at its disposal? Do some have the potential to explode into full-blown international armed conflict, and if so, what is to be done? </p>
<p>Some of these countries we are highlighting are the richest on earth. But G20 economies are experiencing a transition through elections, domestic unrest, cross-border activity and/or the impact of violent extremism (for example, France, USA, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey). </p>
<p>Some are states that have been the subject of UN Security Council attention for many years due to armed conflict that threatens the maintenance of international peace and security (such as South Sudan, Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Iraq) or where geopolitics have bedevilled the capacity of the Security Council to act through the use of the veto power by one of the Permanent Five members, such as Syria. </p>
<p>Some are what the UN calls “<a href="http://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2016/02/un-devotes-100m-worlds-forgotten-emergencies">forgotten emergencies</a>”, where the humanitarian need has outstripped resources as the world’s attention has turned elsewhere. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="http://www.unocha.org/cerf/media-centre/press-releases">UN has just scrambled</a> to find US$8 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund for humanitarian assistance for more than 2.2 million people in North Korea, including urgent nutrition assistance for 1.8 million children.</p>
<p>The UN and the government of Iraq estimate they will need US$891 million this year to support 7.3 million Iraqis. One third of the population will require international help in 2017. Up to 3.3 million people have left their homes and thousands are trapped in combat areas. </p>
<p>When crises spill over borders, complications ensue. More than one million displaced Iraqis have sought safety in the Kurdistan region, and with them 250,000 Syrian refugees that Iraq was hosting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157585/original/image-20170220-12469-h09nqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157585/original/image-20170220-12469-h09nqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157585/original/image-20170220-12469-h09nqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157585/original/image-20170220-12469-h09nqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157585/original/image-20170220-12469-h09nqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157585/original/image-20170220-12469-h09nqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157585/original/image-20170220-12469-h09nqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Syrian children play in a refugee compound in southern Lebanon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Ali Hashisho</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Other countries are facing turbulence because of a new leader or policy, such as the Philippines and Venezuela. There is some talk of Venezuela as a failed state, where the resource rich economy has collapsed with lower oil prices and produced hyperinflation of a whopping 1,660%. </p>
<p>Some are regional crises as well as domestic, such as in Ukraine and Turkey.</p>
<p>In a globalised world, all conflicts and tensions have ripple effects that impact on countries like Australia, with our open economy and mobile population.</p>
<h2>What can we do?</h2>
<p>So what should Australia do? The Minister for Foreign Affairs has called for consultations on a new <a href="http://dfat.gov.au/whitepaper/index.html">Foreign Policy White Paper</a>, so the time is right to reassess our options for dealing with crises elsewhere.</p>
<p>Australia must continue to strengthen the quality and quantum of our <a href="http://dfat.gov.au/aid/topics/investment-priorities/building-resilience/humanitarian-preparedness-and-response/Pages/humanitarian-prepraredness-and-response.aspx">humanitarian responses</a>, and continue to invest in the UN’s humanitarian architecture.</p>
<p>But we can and must invest more in <a href="http://www.un.org/undpa/en/diplomacy-mediation">preventative diplomacy and mediation</a>. Many scholars and practitioners have argued that Australia should build our negotiation and mediation capacity through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Why should the Nordics dominate mediation in our region? In October 2012, Australia’s parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=jfadt/overseas%20representation/report.htm">recommended</a> that a mediation support unit should be created within the Australian Agency for International Development, a department now amalgamated into DFAT. It may be time to revisit this idea. </p>
<p>We must also try to strengthen international norms around conflict prevention, such as the <a href="https://r2pasiapacific.org/">Responsibility to Protect</a> doctrine. </p>
<p>We should promote the roles of human rights <a href="http://www.omct.org/human-rights-defenders/observatory/">observatories</a>, the <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch">International Crisis Group</a> and other <a href="http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/early-warning">early warning</a> mechanisms. </p>
<p>For an international lawyer, the priority must go to the crime of crimes, <a href="http://genocidewatch.net/alerts-2/new-alerts/">genocide</a>. For this reason, the Australian Foreign Minister was right to formally <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/julie-bishop-presses-myanmar-leader-for-credible-rohingya-investigation-20170217-gufij8.html">inform</a> Myanmar that the recent UN <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=21142&LangID=E">report</a> on the treatment of Rohingya was disturbing enough to require a UN commission of inquiry into human rights abuses. </p>
<p>While we deal with crises, we still need to think long-term about the rules and structures of our global system. Prince Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, gave a <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=21192&LangID=E#sthash.RVzBR0Me.m48pIdci.dpuf">rousing speech</a> this week in the US about the need to uphold the global rules that are under threat through populist regimes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We need – all of us – to defend international law – international refugee law, international human rights law, international humanitarian law, international criminal law. For they – and the institutions that uphold them – are the very distillation and sum of human experience. They are not, as some would have you believe, the outcome of post-war bureaucratic doodling. They were woven together from the screams of millions who died violently or suffered horribly over many centuries. We know very well what will happen, should they be dissolved.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/global-pressure-points">Click here</a> for the analysis of the countries we have highlighted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the International Women's Development Agency as a National Board member. </span></em></p>As countries around the world deal with internal and international crises, the potential for faultlines to open is high.Susan Harris Rimmer, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Griffith Law School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728422017-02-28T00:01:26Z2017-02-28T00:01:26ZFrance<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Zenobia Ahmed</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the aftermath of the election of US President Donald Trump and the UK’s Brexit referendum, many observers are keeping a watchful eye on how presidential elections play out in France in late April and early May.</p>
<p>Like many European Union states, France has a populist party that is highly critical of the EU. National Front leader Marine Le Pen speaks at her packed rallies of a <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/marine-le-pen-prepares-for-a-frexit">French exit</a>, or Frexit.</p>
<p>France has, for some decades, been Germany’s partner in all major EU policy. This Franco-German linchpin would effectively be abolished if Le Pen wins, with serious implications for the EU. <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/02/06/le-projet-du-fn-tuer-l-europe_5075219_3232.html">An editorial in Le Monde</a> went so far as to say it would kill Europe and that Le Pen presents the EU as the source of France’s ills – and so wishes to “break Europe”.</p>
<p>Le Pen has declared herself to be anti-radical Islam. At her <a href="http://www.vox.com/world/2017/2/6/14522856/marine-le-pen-islam-populism-nativism-trump-frexit-brexit">campaign launch in February</a>, she attacked “two totalitarianisms”, namely globalisation and Islamic fundamentalism.</p>
<p>Many voters are concerned about austerity measures associated with the EU, which are perceived as undermining French desires to control their own state and economy. Youth unemployment in France is high at 26%, and overall unemployment is 10%. Some voters see Le Pen as fighting for French control of these issues.</p>
<p>Populist hyper-nationalist rhetoric is increasingly evident in contemporary France. A narrative of restoring French identity appeals in particular to the disaffected. </p>
<p>Although rival presidential candidates François Fillon, of the right-wing Republican party, and Le Pen are both linked with financial scandals, this does not seem to have had a negative affect to date on Le Pen’s campaign, perhaps because it relates to <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/01/31/france-s-le-pen-defies-demand-for-misspent-funds">paying back the European Parliament</a> and not national funding. Fillon, however, may well be obliged to withdraw his candidature.</p>
<p>One candidate who may stand a chance is Emmanuel Macron, former banker and former Socialist government finance minister. As leader of a movement called En Marche, he could be the youngest president ever. His platform is general in content and nation-building in tone, yet he could be the voice of the moderate centre. He has <a href="https://www.neweurope.eu/article/macron-praises-angela-merkel/">expressed admiration</a> for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s welcoming stance towards Syrian refugees.</p>
<p>The Socialists are divided about their candidate, Benoît Hamon, who is more left-wing than President François Hollande and much of the party. The Greens and other smaller parties are expected to garner few votes, despite a desire for change. In addition, observers are keeping an eye on Russian influence on the election.</p>
<p>The prospect of a far-right populist president is a real possibility. It is increasingly thought that Le Pen could get through to the second and final round. The key question then is: who will still be standing in the second round in May to confront her with enough credibility to win?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philomena Murray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the aftermath of the election of US President Donald Trump and the UK’s Brexit referendum, many observers are keeping a watchful eye on how presidential elections play out in France in late April and…Philomena Murray, Professor, School of Social and Political Sciences and EU Centre on Shared Complex Challenges, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.