tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/dairy-farmers-83820/articlesDairy farmers – The Conversation2022-10-23T19:02:38Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910642022-10-23T19:02:38Z2022-10-23T19:02:38ZFloods, pandemics, wars and the market: what’s driving the price of milk<p>At the end of 2021, the cost of a litre of home-brand milk in an Australian supermarket <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-11-25/dairy-farmers-welcome-woolworths-milk-price-lift/100650118">was about $1.30</a>. It’s now about $1.60. </p>
<p>What will it cost at the end of 2022? That depends on the continued effect of flooding on prime dairy-production regions in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, as well as on global economic conditions. </p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science has projected <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/dairy#">a 28% increase</a> in the farm-gate milk price in 2022-23 – to 72.5 cents per litre, a record high. With less milk being produced, it could be even more. </p>
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<p><strong>Australia’s dairy regions</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/surveys/dairy#financial-performance">ABARES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>It’s a case of higher demand and lower supply. Production has been declining since 2014. In the first half of 2022, ABARES says milk production was about 7% lower than the same period in 2021: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>This was driven by extreme weather events: a drier than average start of the year in southern Victoria and northwest Tasmania, flooding in regions of Queensland and northern New South Wales. Also, with export prices for Australian dairy products increasing substantially at the start of 2022, less milk was available to the domestic market.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Obviously, things aren’t all rosy. Some dairy farmers face the devastation of natural disasters. All face the same post-COVID challenges as other primary producers. Russia’s war on Ukraine has help drive up <a href="https://www.austrade.gov.au/news/insights/insight-farm-food-costs-rise-due-to-higher-energy-prices">costs of inputs</a>, from fertilisers to <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/data/weekly-commodity-price-update/australian-agricultural-prices">feed</a>. Labour is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/australia-needs-workers-million-are-stuck-door-2022-08-31">hard to find</a>. </p>
<p>But for all that, the record high farm-gate price is good news for an industry
where the number of farmers has declined by a quarter in the past decade (from <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=b16a172f-6300-4ee0-918a-b235cf9da725">about 7,500</a> in 2011 to <a href="https://www.dairy.com.au/our-industry-and-people/our-regions">about 5,700</a> now).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/farm-floods-will-hit-food-supplies-and-drive-up-prices-farmers-need-help-to-adapt-as-weather-extremes-worsen-192731">Farm floods will hit food supplies and drive up prices. Farmers need help to adapt as weather extremes worsen</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Deregulation stirs the pot</h2>
<p>Until 2000, farm-gate milk prices were regulated. State and territory governments set minimum farm-gate prices that maintained farmer income. </p>
<p>This was abandoned in July 2000. With deregulation, farmers, processors and supermarkets were set free to negotiate prices. </p>
<p>In economic theory, free trade works fine when you have a large number of buyers and sellers, all with the same amount of information about what is happening in the market. </p>
<p>But in the milk industry, thousands of producers sell to a handful of milk processors, who then sell to even fewer retailers. The major supermarkets control almost <a href="https://milkvalue.com.au/australian-dairy-market/sales-trends/">60% of total milk sales</a>. </p>
<p>This is not always such a problem. It is not often you hear fresh producers screaming at supermarkets, in what is a very similar arrangement. But with the dairy industry, as noted in a <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/review-report-dairy-industry-code.docx">2021 report</a> from the Department of Agriculture, Waters and the Environment, there is a “perceived market failure”.</p>
<p>Why? It has to do with how supermarkets have used their power.</p>
<h2>Waging the milk price war</h2>
<p>To give time for the market to find an equilibrium, the Howard government introduced a “Dairy Adjustment Levy” of 11 cents per litre to support farmers through deregulation. This levy remained in place until 2008, when it was abolished by the Rudd government.</p>
<p>Then, in 2011, the “milk war” broke out. Coles had the idea of luring shoppers from Woolworths by selling milk <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/milk-wars-leave-sour-taste-in-farmers-mouths-20120120-1q9st.html">at $1 a litre</a>. Woolworths responded. Aldi joined the move. And the war kept prices artificially low for almost a decade. </p>
<p>Supermarkets put the squeeze on processors, who had little option but to accept what was offered for crucial supermarket contracts. Processors then put the squeeze on farmers.</p>
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<p><iframe id="5TukM" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5TukM/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Many decided the effort was not worth it, and quit farming. Milk production peaked in 2014 then declined.</p>
<p>Supermarkets finally abandoned $1/litre milk in 2019, under considerable public and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-23/milk-wars-whats-at-the-heart-of-dairys-battles/10838390">political pressure</a> to acknowledge that, after eight years with no increase, some rebalancing was needed.</p>
<p>During this time, overseas demand for dairy products has also been increasing, especially in Asia. Now <a href="https://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/westvic-dairy/industry-statistics/industry-reports/australian-dairy-industry-in-focus#.YzA0_nZByM9">about 32%</a> of Australian dairy production is exported – not as fresh milk, but as cheese, butter and other dairy products. (It takes about 10 litres of milk to make <a href="https://www.dairysafe.vic.gov.au/consumers/dairy-foods/cheese">1 kilogram of cheese</a>, and 20 litres to make <a href="https://www.dairysafe.vic.gov.au/consumers/dairy-foods/butter">1kg of butter</a>.)</p>
<p>On top of that, lately US and European dairy farmers have had a hard time <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/dairy#milk-production-to-increase-but-export-volumes-to-fall">with drought</a>, increasing international prices. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s Dairy Price Index increased by more <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc1189en/cc1189en.pdf">than 17%</a> from 2020 to 2021, and is expected to rise another 15% by the end of this year. </p>
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<p><strong>Australian milk production and farm-gate price</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/images/ac-sept-2022-dairy-fig-1-2.png">ABARES; Dairy Australia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The projected 28% rise in farm-gate milk prices in 2022-23 will bring the value of the Australian dairy production to a record <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/dairy">$6.2 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Which is good news for the long term sustainability of dairy farming in Australia. You might not appreciate it, but to keep dairy farmers in business, a fair price must be payed for your fresh milk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Australasian Supply Chain Institute (ASCI).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Cosby is affiliated with the CQUniversity Institute for Future Farming Systems and a dairy farmer in Victoria. </span></em></p>For Australia’s dairy farmers the worst of times are turning out to be the best of times for farmgate prices.Flavio Macau, Associate Dean - School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan UniversityAmy Cosby, Research Fellow - Agricultural Education and Extension, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1738982022-01-12T16:13:38Z2022-01-12T16:13:38ZMilk without the cow: Cellular agriculture could be the future of farming, but dairy farmers need help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440172/original/file-20220111-19-oqtgov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C21%2C1249%2C935&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dairy cows in the Fraser Valley, B.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.evanbowness.ca/cell-ag">(Evan Bowness)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/milk-without-the-cow--cellular-agriculture-could-be-the-future-of-farming--but-dairy-farmers-need-help" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>A new wave of cow-less dairy is hitting the market. In the United States, <a href="https://perfectday.com/">Perfect Day</a> is using genetically modified fungi to produce milk protein for ice cream at a commercial scale. And pre-commercial companies, like <a href="https://turtletree.com">TurtleTree</a> and <a href="https://www.bettermilknow.com">Better Milk</a>, are engineering mammary cells to produce human and cow milk in laboratories, although these remain in the early stages of development.</p>
<p>It might be some time before mammal-less dairy arrives in Canadian grocery stores. But these emerging technologies are part of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11111066">fourth agricultural revolution</a> that aims to improve food security, sustainability and agricultural working conditions. With these promises for wins on the horizon, should the diary sector be worried?</p>
<p>As researchers from the Food and Agriculture Institute at the University of the Fraser Valley, in British Columbia, we study food systems in transition. The Fraser Valley is home to 60 per cent of B.C.’s dairy farms, so we’re especially interested in the impacts cellular agriculture might have on the dairy system.</p>
<h2>Animal agriculture’s challenges</h2>
<p>Animal agriculture plays a big role in the global food system. The <a href="https://www.fao.org/animal-production/en/">Food and Agriculture Organization states</a> that animal agriculture provides roughly a third of global food protein, supports the livelihoods of over a billion people and contributes to soil fertility.</p>
<p>But animal agriculture is facing increased scrutiny, especially around environmental impacts and animal welfare issues. It is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, upwards of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su13116276">16.5 per cent of global emissions</a>, by some estimates.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Students sit near a hand sanitizer dispenser at a university." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2009, the H1N1 virus, commonly called swine flu, triggered a pandemic and caused widespread illness around the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Animal agriculture is also vulnerable to extreme environmental conditions and climate change. Recent flooding in B.C. <a href="https://fvcurrent.com/article/dead-sumas-prairie-flood/">killed well over half a million farm animals</a> and threatened to contaminate the sensitive freshwater ecosystems of the Fraser Valley with <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/11/19/latest-news/after-floods-oil-slicks-human-and-animal-waste">stored manure and agricultural chemicals</a>. And it’s a known <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/unite-human-animal-and-environmental-health-prevent-next-pandemic-un">risk factor for zoonotic diseases and pandemics</a>, such <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.117-a394">as H1N1 or the swine flu</a>.</p>
<p>One way to reduce the risks introduced by animal agriculture is to remove — or nearly remove — livestock from the food production equation. <a href="https://new-harvest.org/what-is-cellular-agriculture/">Cellular agriculture</a> uses cell cultures to produce animal products without raising livestock, hunting or fishing. While still in its early phases, this technology could help meet growing demand for animal protein, reduce environmental impacts and address animal welfare concerns.</p>
<h2>How does cellular agriculture work?</h2>
<p>Cellular agriculture makes biologically equivalent or near-equivalent foods to those produced with animals. This is different from plant-based meat and dairy alternatives, such as Beyond Burgers and oat milk, which use plant ingredients that approximate their non-vegetarian counterparts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/plant-based-doesnt-always-mean-healthy-173303">Plant-based doesn’t always mean healthy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>One approach is to use advanced fermentation, where yeasts, fungi and bacteria are genetically modified to produce proteins. The approach is similar to brewing beer, but with highly specialized micro-organisms that follow instructions that have been added to their genetic code.</p>
<p>You may already be eating products created using this technology. Thirty years ago, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the use of a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/03/24/fda-approves-bioengineered-cheese-enzyme/c4292eeb-1c74-45d2-94c3-b0eb09e4866c/">bioengineered form of rennet enzymes</a>, which is widely used in cheese making and replaces the original enzymes which were harvested from calf stomachs. </p>
<p>Today, vats of micro-organisms, genetically modified to carry the appropriate calf gene, supply rennet for about 70 per cent of cheese made in the U.S. It’s functionally identical to the original cheese-making enzymes, but it’s easier, less costly to produce and doesn’t rely on mammals.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker walks between large stainless steel tanks in an industrial food site." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food scientists can use microorganisms to grow food ingredients in large vats, eliminating the need for livestock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another approach, called tissue engineering, uses cells collected from an animal to grow meat, fish or even leather in a controlled environment. The tissues grow, but in a nutrient-rich broth called growth media in bioreactor tanks.</p>
<p>Examples include GOOD Meat’s cellular chicken nuggets, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-021-00855-1">first commercially available cellular meat product</a>, and <a href="https://www.wildtypefoods.com/">WildType</a>’s cellular salmon, which is being grown in stainless steel tanks in San Francisco. </p>
<h2>What is at stake for dairy farmers?</h2>
<p>Dairy is an important food commodity in Canada. Over 18,000 farm operators are employed at the roughly 10,000 dairy farms across the country, which together produced 9.5 billion litres of milk and <a href="https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/canadas-agriculture-sectors/animal-industry/canadian-dairy-information-centre/canadas-dairy-industry-glance">earned farms over $7 billion in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>To meet consumer demand and guarantee a fair price to the farmers, the Canadian supply management system controls dairy production volumes and the number of producers at the provincial level using a quota system. Farmers essentially buy the right to sell dairy products. Dairy farms are capital intensive and farmers often carry large debt loads, making it a difficult industry to enter. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dairy cows stay dry inside a barn at night, with flood waters outside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood waters rise outside a dairy barn near Agassiz, B.C., in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Livestock farmers in B.C. had an exceptionally challenging 2021. After a summer of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-livestock-owners-scramble-to-move-cattle-horses-caught-in-wildfire-risk-1.6107262">encroaching forest fires</a> and a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-livestock-farmers-heat-wave-1.6130043">record-breaking heat dome</a>, the year ended with <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8483965/bc-flooded-farms-weather/">catastrophic floods followed by extreme cold</a>. Fraser Valley farmers were forced to dump 7.5 million litres of raw milk in November when shipping routes were destroyed by flooding, which also killed 428 dairy cows. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-farmers-are-dumping-milk-down-the-drain-and-letting-produce-rot-in-fields-136567">Across the country, dairy farmers also dumped milk</a> early in the pandemic — more than <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8386413/canada-milk-price-increase-dairy-farmers-cdc/">30 million litres</a> in the year ending July 31, 2020, according to one analysis — when demand plummeted due to restaurant closures and other system shocks. </p>
<h2>Planning a just transition</h2>
<p>We see animal-free dairy as possibly having some environmental and food security benefits, but with some trade-offs. </p>
<p>If cellular agriculture competes with conventional dairy in Canada, what would the impact be on dairy farmers? What would happen to the cows? To the farms? To the supply management system in general? </p>
<p>Addressing these questions is critical for developing policy that enables transitions to food systems with lower environmental and carbon footprints while ensuring harms and benefits are distributed equitably — what’s known as the j<a href="https://www.rncanengagenrcan.ca/en/collections/just-transition">ust transition</a>. </p>
<p>Much of our understanding of these just transitions comes from the energy sector, where coal mines have closed and oil production is declining as renewable energy becomes more available and less expensive, changing economies and forcing fossil fuel workers to find other work. </p>
<p>Canada recently developed a just transition <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/task-force-just-transition.html">task force</a> to look for ways to reduce the livelihood disruptions that come with phasing out coal. The federal government has also recently <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/natural-resources-canada/news/2021/07/canada-launches-just-transition-engagement.html">initiated consultations</a> for just transition legislation that would direct resources to communities negatively impacted by the transition towards a low-carbon future.</p>
<p>Just transition policies for cellular agriculture could encourage farmers to transition into animal-free dairy production through infrastructure transition grants, support with licensing new technologies, biodiversity conservation and carbon credits for <a href="https://ipbes.net/glossary/land-sparing">land sparing</a>, sanctuary planning for current dairy farms and land back incentives to provide pathways for agriculture towards decolonization. </p>
<p>It’s unclear how soon Canadian dairy farmers will face competition from cellular agriculture, although some have suggested <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ind.2021.29240.ctu">U.S. beef and dairy sector revenues will decline nearly 90 per cent by 2035</a>. </p>
<p>Is it reasonable to expect Canadian dairy farmers will make way for cellular dairy? Or is up to policy-makers, industry leaders and food systems organizers to ensure this transition leads to a food system that is more sustainable, but also just?</p>
<p><em>Yadira Tejeda Saldana, research collaborations director at <a href="https://new-harvest.org/">New Harvest</a>, co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Bowness receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada and Future Skills Centre Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Newell receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada and Future Skills Centre Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah-Louise Ruder receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada and Future Skills Centre Canada.</span></em></p>Technological changes on the horizon will likely disrupt the dairy industry as we know it — plans to mitigate the risks this transition poses to farmer livelihoods and animal welfare should start now.Evan Bowness, Postdoctoral Researcher, Food and Agriculture Institute, University of The Fraser ValleyRobert Newell, Associate Director, Food and Agriculture Institute, University of The Fraser ValleySarah-Louise Ruder, PhD Candidate at the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1560912021-03-02T15:06:05Z2021-03-02T15:06:05Z‘Buttergate’ debunked: No evidence butter is harder due to palm supplements for cows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387245/original/file-20210302-17-vzg0me.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4735%2C3145&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A recent debate over the consistency of butter has led to attention on cows' feed.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent controversies over <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/dairy-farmers-of-canada-responds-to-hard-butter-controversy">the properties of butter and how dairy cows are fed</a> have become a case study in media attention and the weight of evidence behind it. Anecdotal comments about the consistency of butter snowballed into <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1865739843731">sometimes overheated discussion of dairy cows’ diets</a>. </p>
<p>To paraphrase the Anglo-Irish author Jonathan Swift, <a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/07/13/truth/">sensationalism flies and consideration comes limping after it</a>. Dairy Farmers of Canada announced a committee to consider issues related to palm-based feed supplements for cows, <a href="https://dairyfarmersofcanada.ca/en/consider-using-alternatives-palm-supplements-says-dairy-farmers-canada">but soon after pre-emptively asked farmers to consider avoiding their use</a>. </p>
<p>The problem started with a question about a perceived change in the hardness of butter and moved to whether a contentious product such as palm oil should be used in ingredients for cows’ feed.</p>
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<h2>The weight of evidence</h2>
<p>University professors and other experts are accorded some presumption of basing their comments on rigorous data and analysis when contributing to public discussion of issues. That trust must be supported by being clear about the basis for statements: What is the quantity and quality of the evidence? Is there presently a scientific consensus? What is opinion versus evidence that has at least passed the basic standard of peer review and publication in a scientific journal?</p>
<p>This controversy started over <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/article-is-your-butter-not-as-soft-as-it-used-to-be-the-pandemic-and-our-urge/">whether butter is harder</a> at room temperature than it used to be. Although that question has melted away, it’s instructive to trace this story from its start.</p>
<p>Consider the difference in value between replying to a social media post and conducting a formal survey of a representative sample of people. It’s not hard to see how you might get a very different view by asking “Does anyone else think that butter is harder?” or “Please rate your satisfaction with the texture of butter from very dissatisfied to very satisfied,” including an option for “no opinion.”</p>
<p>If we wanted to know if butter is hard or harder than it used to be, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/dairy-farmers-lobby-asks-members-to-stop-using-palm-as-it-investigates-buttergate-1.5323703">we would have to measure it</a>. That is not difficult to do, but it has not been done in this case. That might have been the end of it. Astute observations raise questions that research may answer, but without a clear question it is impossible to propose a solution.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A knife spreading butter on bread" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387025/original/file-20210301-13-141xyrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To definitively know whether the consistency of butter had changed, we would have needed to measure its consistency over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this case, the observation was made that some dairy farmers sometimes feed small amounts (about one per cent of the cow’s diet) of palm-based feed supplements to some of their cows. Presumably because butter is 80 per cent milk fat, this led to speculation that there might be an association between this feeding practice and the consistency of butter. Here, there are some data. And also some muddied waters. </p>
<p>While the terminology is possibly confusing, cow’s milk — like human breast milk — contains palmitic acid, a saturated fat. It’s 30 to 35 per cent of the many different fats in cows’ milk, whether the cows eat any palm-based feeds or not.</p>
<h2>Cows’ diets</h2>
<p>Most of what cows in Canada eat is grown on their home farm or locally: corn and alfalfa silage, corn grain and some soybean meal are staples. Dairy farmers set their cows’ diets based on <a href="https://www.merckvetmanual.com/management-and-nutrition/nutrition-dairy-cattle/nutritional-requirements-of-dairy-cattle">detailed and ongoing analysis</a> and <a href="https://dairyfarmersofcanada.ca/en/dairy-in-canada/dairy-excellence/canadian-dairy-cow-diet">formulation by professional nutritionists</a>. Veterinarians routinely monitor cows’ health, visiting dairy farms for preventive medicine every week or every other week. </p>
<p>Vegetable-based fat supplements may be included at about one per cent of a dairy cow’s total diet <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-817052-6.00009-4">to help counter the energy deficit that can occur in early lactation</a>, or to shore up the cow’s energy supply during the heat of the summer. That has been done to meet seasonally fluctuating market demands for butterfat <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2017-12924">for decades</a>.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X55YvgyPgm0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Adam Lock, an expert on dairy cow nutrition and its impact on milk fat, produced a briefing and summary of the current science.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Feeding palm-based supplements to dairy cows will change the palmitic acid content of milk to a small degree. There is no evidence of negative health implications for the cows or the people who consume the milk from these cows. </p>
<p>Cows are not fed palm oil itself but palmitic acid supplements, which may come from palm oil or by-products of palm oil processing. There is no evidence that there has been any change in the feeding of palmitic acid. In fact, the evidence based on data on the fatty acid profile of milk from cows in Québec is that the palmitic acid content of milk has not changed over the last year, and data from 2018 showed <a href="https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2021-02-24/vaches-nourries-a-l-huile-de-palme/les-transformateurs-laitiers-condamnent-la-pratique.php">less than a one per cent difference</a> in palmitic acid content in herds that did or didn’t feed supplemental fat — 33 versus 33.5 per cent.</p>
<p>There is little data on whether or how the details of cows’ diets might affect the properties of dairy food. More research is needed, <a href="https://www.lebulletin.com/elevage/non-le-gras-ajoute-a-la-ration-des-vaches-vaches-laitieres-ne-rend-pas-le-beurre-plus-dur-111519">and is being pursued on several fronts</a>. But based on the available evidence, it is improbable that feeding palm-based supplements has had appreciable effects on the properties of butter.</p>
<h2>Informed decisions?</h2>
<p>Not all decisions are, or ought to be, based on scientific data alone. We often have to make decisions in the absence of fulsome evidence, and consider our values as well as hard data. Context helps. Palm oil and its derivatives are used in many foods (check the baked goods, granola bars and hazelnut spread in your pantry, and the margarine in the fridge), cosmetics and biofuels.</p>
<p>There are concerns about the sustainability of palm oil production. Like the coffee, cocoa and forestry industries, there are established <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/industries/palm-oil">international schemes</a> to support sustainable practices in palm production. </p>
<p>Individuals or industries may well make values-based practices and purchasing decisions but they should first consider the best available scientific evidence. Otherwise we’re on a slope more slippery than butter, hard or soft.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen LeBlanc receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, and the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs. In the past 5 years, he has received research funding from Landus Coopertive (an animal nutrition company) and Elanco Animal Health Canada. He received research funding from Dairy Farmers of Ontario in 2013, and from Dairy Farmers of Canada from 2012 to 2016.</span></em></p>A recent controversy over the consistency of butter reflects the need for evidence rather than anecdotal data.Stephen LeBlanc, Professor, Veterinary Population Medicine, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1395542020-05-28T06:03:49Z2020-05-28T06:03:49ZNew Zealand government ignores expert advice in its plan to improve water quality in rivers and lakes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338141/original/file-20200528-143715-xmcx4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=69%2C158%2C6556%2C2374&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tracey McNamara/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s government has been praised for <a href="https://theconversation.com/overjoyed-a-leading-health-expert-on-new-zealands-coronavirus-shutdown-and-the-challenging-weeks-ahead-134395">listening</a> to health experts in its pandemic response, but when it comes to dealing with pollution of the country’s waterways, scientific advice seems less important. </p>
<p>Today, the government released a long-awaited <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/action-for-healthy-waterways">NZ$700 million package</a> to address freshwater pollution. The new rules include higher standards around cleanliness of swimming spots, set controls for some farming practices and how much synthetic fertiliser is used, and require mandatory and enforceable farm environment plans. </p>
<p>But the package is flawed. It does not include any measurable limits on key nutrients (such as nitrogen and phosphorus) and the rules’ implementation is left to regional authorities. Over the 30 years they have been managing the environment, the health of lakes and rivers has <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/Environment-Aotearoa-2019-Summary">continued to decline</a>. </p>
<p>For full disclosure, I was part of the 18-person <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/fresh-water/science-and-technical-advisory-group">science technical advisory group</a> that made the recommendations. Despite more than a year of consultation and evidence-based science, the government has deferred or ignored our advice on introducing measurable limits on nitrogen and phosphorus. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polluted-drained-and-drying-out-new-warnings-on-new-zealands-rivers-and-lakes-136486">Polluted, drained, and drying out: new warnings on New Zealand's rivers and lakes</a>
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<h2>Waterways in decline</h2>
<p>The declining state of rivers, lakes and wetlands was the most important environmental issue for 80% of New Zealanders in a <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/freshwater-quality-kiwis-biggest-environmental-concern">recent survey</a>. It was also an <a href="https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/pq/article/view/5684">election issue</a> in 2017, so there was a clear mandate for significant change. </p>
<p>But despite years of work from government appointed expert panels, including the technical advisory group I was part of, the Māori freshwater forum <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/fresh-water/kahui-wai-m%C4%81ori-freshwater-forum">Kahui Wai Māori</a> and the Freshwater Leaders groups, crucial advice was ignored. </p>
<p>The technical advisory group, supported by <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/fresh-water/summary-of-modelling-inform-environmental-impact-assessment-of-nutrient">research</a>, was unequivocal that specific nitrogen and phosphorus limits are necessary to protect the quality of people’s drinking water and the ecological health of waterways. </p>
<p>The proposed nutrient limits were key to achieving real change, and far from being extreme, would have brought New Zealand <a href="http://www.jlakes.org/uploadfile/news_images/hpkx/2019-01-15/1-s2.0-S1001074217308215-main.pdf">into line with the rest of the world</a>. For example, in China, the limit for nitrogen in rivers is <a href="https://cen.acs.org/environment/pollution/improve-water-qualityChina-need-cut/97/i9">1 milligram per litre</a> – the same limit as our technical advisory group recommended. In New Zealand, <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/river-water-quality-nitrogen">85% of waterways in pasture catchments</a> (which make up half of the country’s waterways, if measured by length) now exceed <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/fresh-water/australian-and-new-zealand-guidelines-fresh-and-marine-water-quality">nitrate limit guidelines</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, Minister for the Environment David Parker decided to postpone this discussion by another year – meaning New Zealand will continue to lag other nations in having clear, enforceable nutrient limits.</p>
<p>This delay will inevitably result in a continued decline of water quality, with a corresponding decline in a suite of ecological, <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Fresh%20water/kahui-wai-maori-report.pdf">cultural</a>, <a href="https://www.sbc.org.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/99419/A-Best-Use-Solution-for-NZs-Water-Problems.pdf">social</a> and <a href="https://nzier.org.nz/static/media/filer_public/d2/ce/d2cef6fa-3b58-4f11-bb0b-7b2a684ac181/nzier_public_discussion_paper_2014-01_-_water_management_in_nz.pdf">economic</a> values a healthy environment could support.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-urban-freshwater-is-improving-but-a-major-report-reveals-huge-gaps-in-our-knowledge-115695">New Zealand’s urban freshwater is improving, but a major report reveals huge gaps in our knowledge</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338149/original/file-20200528-143724-6f6ztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338149/original/file-20200528-143724-6f6ztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338149/original/file-20200528-143724-6f6ztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338149/original/file-20200528-143724-6f6ztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338149/original/file-20200528-143724-6f6ztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338149/original/file-20200528-143724-6f6ztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338149/original/file-20200528-143724-6f6ztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The government’s package includes a cap on the use of nitrogen fertiliser.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexey Stiop/Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Capping use of nitrogen fertiliser</h2>
<p>The other main policy the expert panels pushed for was a cap on the use of nitrogen fertiliser. This was indeed part of the announcement, which is a positive and important step forward. But the cap is set at 190kg per hectare per year, which is too high. This is like telling someone they should reduce smoking from three to two and a half packets a day to be healthier. </p>
<p>I believe <a href="https://www.dairynz.co.nz/news/proposed-freshwater-policies-could-cost-nz-6-billion/">claims from the dairy industry</a> that the tightening of environmental standards for freshwater would threaten New Zealand’s economic recovery are exaggerated. They also ignore the fact clean water and a healthy environment provide the foundation for our current and future economic well-being. </p>
<p>And they fly in the face of modelling by the Ministry for the Environment, which shows implementation of freshwater reforms would <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Fresh%20water/action-for-healthy-waterways-information-on-benefits-and-costs.pdf">save NZ$3.8 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Excess nitrogen is not just an issue for ecosystem health. Nitrate (which forms when nitrogen combines with oxygen) in drinking water has been <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29435982/">linked to colon cancer</a>, which is <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/conditions-and-treatments/diseases-and-illnesses/bowel-cancer">disproportionately high</a> in many parts of New Zealand. </p>
<p>The New Zealand College of Public Health Medicine and the <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-NZ/52SCEN_EVI_91358_EN19676/dd42a1bfc8f08775c45494269a7271c05173a179">Hawkes Bay district health board</a> both made <a href="https://www.nzcphm.org.nz/media/133210/final_nzcphm_freshwater_submission.pdf">submissions</a> calling for a nitrate limit in rivers and aquifers to protect people’s health – at the same level the technical advisory group recommended to protect ecosystems. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drinking-water-study-raises-health-concerns-for-new-zealanders-108510">Drinking water study raises health concerns for New Zealanders</a>
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<p>Our dependence on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser is unsustainable, and it is adding to New Zealand’s greenhouse gas footprint through nitrous oxide emissions. There is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/97071476/demonstration-dairy-farm-cuts-nitrate-leaching-30-per-cent-and-stays-profitable">growing evidence</a> farmers can make more profit by reducing their use of artificial fertilisers. </p>
<p>Continued use will only further degrade soils across productive landscapes and reduce the farming sector’s resilience in a changing climate. </p>
<p>The irony is that for a century, New Zealand produced milk without synthetic nitrogen fertiliser. Instead, farmers grew clover which converts nitrogen from the air. If we want to strive for better water quality for future generations, we need to front up to the unsustainable use of artificial fertiliser and seek more <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-regenerative-farming-can-help-grow-food-with-less-impact-123090">regenerative farming practices</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Joy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A long-awaited NZ$700 million package to clean up New Zealand’s rivers and lakes has disappointed some of the government’s expert advisers – especially a delay on setting clear pollution limits.Mike Joy, Senior Researcher; Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1355142020-04-27T18:14:04Z2020-04-27T18:14:04ZWhy we aren’t running out of food during the coronavirus pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329217/original/file-20200420-152602-1nzsmu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=251%2C0%2C4393%2C2824&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Long lines of masked shoppers wait to shop for groceries in Toronto on April 9, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We are living through a period in which many jurisdictions have shut down virtually all non-essential commerce. People are working from home or have been temporarily laid off. </p>
<p>We have seen rushes on food and grocery items like toilet paper and hand sanitizer that have resulted in some short-term shortages in stores.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-hoarding-why-you-can-stop-amassing-toilet-paper-135659">Coronavirus hoarding: Why you can stop amassing toilet paper</a>
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<hr>
<p>Some have questioned the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-perils-of-our-just-enough-just-in-time-food-system-133724">resilience of our food system</a> and whether we could run out of food. The easy answer is we are not running out of food. Our food system has proven to be robust and resilient and shortages are demand-based rather than supply-based. </p>
<p>We have cheap food. It doesn’t always feel like it, but Canadians spend among the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-map-shows-how-much-each-country-spends-on-food/">lowest proportion of our income on food</a> in the world. Canadians who don’t live in remote communities have an abundance of safe and affordable food. We also have an incredible diversity of food products available.</p>
<h2>Stores are restocking</h2>
<p>Yes, we have seen some shortages on grocery store shelves. But we have seen stores restocking regularly, and the expectation is that the system will catch up. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bdc.ca/en/articles-tools/operations/inventory-management/pages/inventory-management-build-smoother-supply-chain.aspx">just-in-time</a> process used in our food system, in fact, is not unique to food supply chains. It is based on producing and shipping product to meet expected demands. It depends on accurate forecasts and smooth delivery. </p>
<p>We have seen a significant surge in demand as people buy large quantities in anticipation of being at home for long periods of time. This was exacerbated by <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-panic-buying-britain-us-shopping/608731/">panic buying</a>, when people saw shortages in the store or heard of shortages in news reports. Products are being quickly restocked, even though they’re often snapped up quickly.</p>
<p>We will see a return to some semblance of <a href="http://www.canadiangrocer.com/top-stories/headlines/grocers-respond-to-food-shortage-fears-amid-covid-19-outbreak-93597">normality reasonably soon</a> — at least with respect to food stocks in stores. This is supported by policies at stores that are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/whats-being-done-store-shelves-1.5503594">limiting quantities</a> that people can purchase. </p>
<p>Demand for things like hand sanitizer continue to be high. Demand for other food products will probably stabilize relatively quickly, even if people continue to hold extra stock at home. Grocery stores have seen an increase in demand for food as restaurants are closed, but that simply shifts demand from food service distribution to supermarket distribution, and isn’t leading to food supply shortages.</p>
<p>We are also seeing <a href="https://www.supermarketnews.com/center-store/how-coronavirus-crisis-changing-grocery-shopping">larger individual shopping orders</a> as consumers minimize the number of times they have to go to the grocery store. </p>
<h2>Milk dumping</h2>
<p>While there have been some shortages at grocery stores, we’ve also seen reports of farmers <a href="https://www.foodfocusguelph.ca/post/a-thought-on-dumping-milk-during-covid-19">dumping milk</a> or <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241627101.html">plowing down crops</a>. </p>
<p>This is caused by the requirement for adjustments in the food system. As demand has decreased in food services, it’s increased in retail. So why is milk being dumped and why are crops being mowed down?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Milk processors have lost a significant chunk of their market during the pandemic, leaving dairy farmers with no one to take their milk and forcing some farmers to dump it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pat Sutphin/Times-News via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s because raw product needs to be diverted to new processors and products, and other products need to be diverted to different processors. Some products require packaging changes. Professional bakers buy industrial-sized bags of flour, for example, but most retailers won’t normally carry that size.</p>
<p>These adjustments take time, and for perishable products like milk and produce, storage isn’t available. These adjustments are now under way and products are beginning to flow through supply chains more normally.</p>
<h2>No border closures</h2>
<p>Food supply chains have been protected from border closures this far, and that’s expected to continue. The most important border for Canada’s food supply chain, and that of the United States too, is the Canada-U.S. border. <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CAN/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country/Product/16-24_FoodProd">More than half of our food imports</a> come from the U.S.</p>
<p>During the winter months, we import more. But fresh local produce is available to most Canadians in the warmer months.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perishables like strawberries are more readily available locally in Canada in the warmer months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Markus Spiske/Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even if the border closed, we would still not go hungry. We would have less fresh produce, but <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/foodland/page/availability-guide">we’d still have Canadian</a> apples and root vegetables in storage. We would also have frozen products available.</p>
<p>Given the sales forecasts for these items, we probably wouldn’t begin to run short until the Canadian growing season had kicked in. But there would be bread, milk, meat and cheese readily available. We might see a decrease in variety, but we wouldn’t run out of food. And there’s no indication that there’s any risk of the border closing in the short run.</p>
<h2>Food processing could be impacted</h2>
<p>One area of concern is the processing sector. There are fewer processing plants than there are both farmers and retail stores.</p>
<p>If plants close, production stops. We have seen the temporary closure of a pork <a href="https://www.realagriculture.com/2020/03/olymel-pork-plant-closure-update-industry-working-to-keep-pork-moving/">processor in Québec</a> due to COVID-19 and a big beef plant in Alberta has <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-cargill-to-temporarily-close-meat-packing-plant-at-centre-of-alberta/">temporarily closed</a>. </p>
<p>The Québec plant is reopening and the Alberta plant has shut down to mitigate the risk of employees getting sick. While there is not yet a fixed date for the Cargill plant in Alberta to re-open, it is expected to be soon. These short-term closures can cause hardships, particularly for farmers, but shouldn’t significantly affect availability on grocery shelves. </p>
<p>While the Cargill represents almost 40 per cent of the beef processing capacity in Canada, our beef industry is highly integrated with the American industry with both livestock and beef products <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Livestock%20and%20Products%20Annual_Ottawa_Canada_9-7-2018.pdf">flowing in both directions</a>. </p>
<p>Plant closures would cause losses for perishable products like milk or produce. But for meat producers, livestock can be diverted or held until processors reopen. This can cause significant losses for farmers. Prices go down with extra supply and if livestock has to be shipped further and costs go up if animals have to be held. But unless the number of closures increases dramatically and closures are enduring, we will continue to see food on grocery shelves.</p>
<p>Overall, our food system has bent but not broken in the face of unprecedented demand. We can remain confident that we will have food available as we work our way through the peaks of the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael von Massow receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food to research issues in food waste and nutrition labeling for restaurant menus. He has received funding from the Walmart Foundation to explore food waste at the household level. He has received money from the Tim Hortons Sustainable Food Management Fund to explore consumer attitudes to antibiotic use and animal welfare. He has also received funding from Longo's Brothers Markets in support of research into consumer behaviour in food retail.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alfons Weersink receives funding from Ontario Ministriy of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA) and Food from Thought, sponsored through the Canada First Research Excellence Fund. </span></em></p>Canada’s food system has bent but not broken in the face of unprecedented demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. We will continue to have enough food available.Michael von Massow, Associate Professor, Food Economics, University of GuelphAlfons Weersink, Professor, Dept of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1365672020-04-23T12:09:21Z2020-04-23T12:09:21ZWhy farmers are dumping milk down the drain and letting produce rot in fields<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329892/original/file-20200422-47799-kkz5z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C59%2C1976%2C1269&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Pennsylvania dairy farmer watches 5,500 gallons of milk swirl down the drain.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans may be surprised and confused to see farmers <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dairy-farmers-hit-hard-by-coronavirus-are-spilling-a-lot-of-milk/">dumping milk</a> down the drain or letting <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-truly-helpless-farmers-devastated-by-pandemic/">vegetables rot</a> in their fields. </p>
<p>Why would they be destroying food at a time when <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/business/food-supply-chains-coronavirus/index.html">grocery stores</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/coronavirus-pandemic-puts-strain-on-food-banks/">food pantries</a> struggle to keep pace with surging demand during the coronavirus pandemic?</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jlg_PMsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociologists</a> with a specialty in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JA9GbHAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">agriculture</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=0EfJ-0oAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">food</a>, we study how the structure of the food system affects people’s lives and the environment. Seeing food destroyed at a time when people <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/02/us-food-banks-coronavirus-demand-unemployment">are going hungry</a> highlights both short- and long-term problems with this system. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food and toilet paper have more in common than you think.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rodney Stubina/EyeEm/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A tale of two supply chains</h2>
<p>Surprisingly, the supply chain for food bears a striking similarity to that of another product that has experienced shortages: <a href="https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0">toilet paper</a>. </p>
<p>Like the toilet paper market, the food industry has two separate supply chains for consumer and commercial use. On the consumer side are grocery and convenience stores that focus on small purchases. The commercial side represents restaurants and institutions such as schools, prisons, hospitals and corporate cafeterias that purchase large quantities of foods in bulk. Ultimately, commercial institutions purchase in sizes that exceed the storage capacity of most households and food pantries.</p>
<p>While the commercial and the consumer supply chains are different, there are some commonalities: Both are complex, cover long distances and rely on just-in-time production. Both are also increasingly concentrated, meaning that there are only a <a href="https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/resource/2020/04/covid-19s-impacts-on-u-s-food-and-agriculture-webinar/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=delivra-WebinarRecording042020&utm_campaign=Webinar-042020COVID19">few companies</a> between farmers and consumers that process and distribute raw agricultural goods into edible food. For example, on the commercial side, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/01/29/sysco-feasts-on-economies-of-scale-for-strong-competitive-advantage/#162e1592245e">Sysco</a> and U.S. Foods control an <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2015/02/ftc-challenges-proposed-merger-sysco-us-foods">estimated 75% of the market</a> for food distribution.</p>
<p>These characteristics make the supply chains more <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-your-local-store-keeps-running-out-of-flour-toilet-paper-and-prescription-drugs-135786">vulnerable</a> to disruptions. </p>
<p>In 2018, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58364">over half of all U.S. spending</a> on food was on the commercial side of the supply chain. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-shutdown.html">introduction of social distancing measures in March</a> forced schools, corporate cafeterias and many restaurants to close. As a result, a lot of food intended for commercial use no longer had a buyer. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meat plant closures has created a bottleneck for processing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where the supply chains diverge</h2>
<p>To understand why this food can’t readily be diverted to consumers, let’s take a closer look at the supply chains for meat, vegetables and milk. With each category, there are different reasons. </p>
<p>Vegetable farmers, for example, have a lot of crops growing in their fields intended for commercial buyers like schools, restaurants and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/05/food-waste-coronavirus-pandemic-164557">cruise lines</a>, which are no longer purchasing these products.</p>
<p>But a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-challenges-facing-u-s-farms-get-workers-keep-them-healthy-11585660358">worsening</a> <a href="https://www.fb.org/viewpoints/another-year-of-farm-labor-shortages">labor shortage</a> makes it a lot harder to harvest or pick their crops and package them for consumers. </p>
<p>So a combination of plunging commercial demand, not enough low-wage yet skilled laborers, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/prices-of-agricultural-commodities-drop-20-post-covid-19-outbreak/articleshow/74705537.cms">falling prices</a> and a short window in which to pick vegetables means it has become cheaper to simply let them rot in the fields. </p>
<p>As for meat, restaurants <a href="https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/livestock/article/2020/04/13/restaurant-failures-slow-beefs">typically order</a> larger cuts and use more of the pricier parts like tenderloins. In contrast, much of the meat purchased on the consumer side is sold in “<a href="https://www.meatinstitute.org/index.php?ht=a/GetDocumentAction/i/93528">case-ready” packages</a>, and ground beef is far more common. </p>
<p>So in general, commercial buyers tend to buy parts of the cow or pig that consumers simply don’t prepare at home. But what’s more, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/04/22/meat-packing-plants-covid-may-force-choice-worker-health-food/2995232001/">meat plant closures</a> due to COVID-19 outbreaks are creating a bottleneck for slaughtering and processing animals, which also have a short window before they’re past their prime. As a result, producers, particularly pork farmers, are debating whether to feed and care for their animals past their prime or <a href="https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2020/04/20/plants-suspend-operations-growing">simply euthanize them</a>. </p>
<p>Milk is even more complicated when it comes to how it flows along the food chain.</p>
<p>First, there’s no stopping cows giving milk; udders that are full must be emptied daily. The only question is where that milk will go.</p>
<p>Restaurants and organizations like schools purchase <a href="https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-sends-upstate-ny-dairy-industry-into-free-fall-as-milk-dumping-soars.html">nearly half</a> of all milk, butter and other dairy products processed in the U.S. Pizzerias alone take nearly a quarter of all <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/04/best-cheeses-americans-have-an-insatiable-demand-for-pizza-cheese.html">U.S. cheese production</a>. </p>
<p>With many of these customers closed or cutting their purchases, there’s lots of excess milk. Unfortunately, processors do not have the equipment to package that milk into smaller containers for grocery stories and retail use. </p>
<p>As for converting more milk into dairy products with longer shelf lives like cheese, there was already a glut of mozzarella and other cheese plugging up <a href="https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/01/08/cheese-surplus-united-states">cold storage space</a>. And despite a rise in takeout pizza, <a href="https://www.farmprogress.com/dairy/covid-19-leads-milk-dumping-plunging-dairy-prices">overall demand for cheese</a> has “dropped like a rock,” according to trade industry sources. </p>
<p>That has left dairy farmers with little choice <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/farmers-are-dumping-milk-in-latest-blow-to-battered-u-s-dairy?sref=Hjm5biAW">but to dump excess milk</a> into manure ponds and ditches.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A quarter of all cheese makes its way to a pizza.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karl Tapales/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A longer-term problem</h2>
<p>Many states are working on short-term solutions to bridge the gap between the two supply chains.</p>
<p><a href="https://governor.nebraska.gov/press/gov-ricketts-announces-regulatory-changes-allow-restaurants-operate-pop-retailers">Nebraska</a> is temporarily allowing restaurants to sell unlabeled packaged foods to customers, <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-comfort-food-care-packages-for-texas-youth-and-families">Texas</a> is pushing restaurants to prepare food care packages for at-risk families, and many other states have changed their health regulations to allow restaurants to <a href="https://www.beefmagazine.com/beef-quality/covid-takeout-real-beef-burgers-paying-bills-restaurants">repackage products</a> into smaller quantities to sell to the public.</p>
<p>In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to begin purchasing <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/18/usdas-19-billion-covid-19-relief-farmers-and-food-banks-sparks-questions-about-who">US$3 billion in fresh produce, dairy and meat</a> to support farmers and eventually distribute it to food pantries and other organizations feeding Americans in need.</p>
<p>Although helpful in the short term, we believe a longer-term problem that needs to be addressed is how concentrated food supply chains have become, which has made them less nimble in adapting to disruptions like a health pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Ransom has received funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle R. Worosz has received funding from various USDA grant programs including the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>E. Melanie DuPuis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not as easy as you might think to divert food intended for schools and restaurants and send it to grocery stores or even food banks.Elizabeth Ransom, Associate Professor of International Affairs & Senior Research Associate Rock Ethics Institute, Penn StateE. Melanie DuPuis, Professor and Chair, Environmental Studies and Science, Pace University Michelle R. Worosz, Professor of Rural Sociology, Auburn UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1326532020-03-25T13:57:40Z2020-03-25T13:57:40ZLab-grown meat could leave marginalized people in need<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319886/original/file-20200311-116255-6l4e9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1872&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With lab meat technology still in its infancy, it's a good time to consider the social and cultural challenges that may become more amplified in North American food systems with the advent of clean meats.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the climate crisis era, one of the most revolutionary options to create more sustainable foods is lab-grown meats. These are meat products that are sometimes referred to as “clean meat” because they are grown from the stem cells taken from a live animal, but without the need for slaughter. </p>
<p>The world is facing <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">a major food and water crisis</a>, so the novelty of lab-grown meat provides an enticing and <a href="https://www.anthrodish.com/episodes/paulshapiro">seemingly sustainable solution for North American meat consumption</a>. But with this technology still in its infancy, it’s a good time to consider the social and cultural challenges that may become more amplified in North American food systems with the advent of clean meats.</p>
<p>In order for lab-grown meats to truly mark a revolution in our North American food systems, more holistic explorations of how these products would interact with consumers and food producers is needed. </p>
<h2>Clean meat & marginalized groups</h2>
<p>As a medical anthropologist, I research how our culture and environment influence our health. While access to nutritionally whole foods is important for our physical health, food is also incredibly important for <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/6/1571">our mental</a> and <a href="https://www.foodsystemsjournal.org/index.php/fsj/article/view/756">cultural</a> health as well. </p>
<p>Barriers like racial discrimination reinforce systems that keep the distribution of power unequal. This impacts access to housing, fair earnings, health care and criminal justice. Hunger is a race issue: <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-us/key-statistics-graphics.aspx">People of colour are more likely to be food insecure</a>, regardless of <a href="https://foodshare.net/custom/uploads/2019/11/PROOF_factsheet_press_FINAL.6.pdf">income and education levels</a>. </p>
<p>While food insecurity levels have fluctuated over the years <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5823283/">for Americans</a> and Canadians, <a href="https://socialinnovation.org/race-and-food-insecurity-in-canada/">Black households in Canada are almost twice as likely</a> as white households to have trouble putting food on the table. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-food-guide-is-easy-to-follow-if-youre-wealthy-or-middle-class-114963">Canada's food guide is easy to follow if you're wealthy or middle class</a>
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<p>The focus in discussions around the production of lab-grown meats is on their <a href="http://2014falleng114.pbworks.com/w/file/fetch/88945115/cultured_meat_lca_es_t_published.pdf">reduced environmental impact</a> and lower reliance on antibiotics in livestock feed. This neglects the important considerations of affordability and who will have access to lab-grown meats. </p>
<h2>Making lab meat is expensive</h2>
<p>In 2013, the first cell-based burger was unveiled by Mosa Meat and cost <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/12/mosa-meat-from-e250000-to-e9-burger-patties/">€250,000 to make</a>, or almost C$400,000.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319888/original/file-20200311-116291-qw79mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Mosa lab-meat hamburger.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mosa Meat</span></span>
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<p>While Future Meat Technology, a lab-grown meat start-up, is trying to get the price down to a commercial level, its timeline to meet this goal has changed <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/40565582/lab-grown-meat-is-getting-cheap-enough-for-anyone-to-buy">from 2020</a> to more recently aiming <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankateman/2020/02/17/will-cultured-meat-soon-be-a-common-sight-in-supermarkets-across-the-globe/#6586d4177c66">for 2022</a>. </p>
<p>Industrial livestock production focuses on producing affordable meats for growing populations. So if we want to challenge the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/04/factory-farming-destructive-wasteful-cruel-says-philip-lymbery-farmageddon-author">unethical food production in factory farms</a>, shouldn’t we also consider the impact these shifts will have on those who rely most on these cheap and accessible foods? </p>
<p>One of the main selling points for lab-grown meat is that there would be less need to clear-cut land for raising cattle and with that, less methane gas released from cows.</p>
<p>But this also means that cattle farmers may find themselves in similar trouble as dairy farmers. With <a href="https://www.fb.org/market-intel/largest-decline-in-u.s.-dairy-farms-in15-plus-years-in-2019">dairy supplies consistently outweighing demand in a shifting consumer market</a>, the dairy industry has seen a more than 50 per cent decline in licensed dairy operations in the U.S. from 2003 to 2019. Many smaller dairy operations found <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-05/dairy-farms-fall-victim-to-the-productivity-revolution">decreased demand and low prices in 2019 to be particularly challenging</a>.</p>
<h2>More collaboration needed</h2>
<p>Lab-grown meat was born of the tech world and discussions around its production are kept relatively quiet. In keeping the production of this technology closed, it perpetuates the separation between the key players who are aiming to create a sustainable food future. </p>
<p>Farmers and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01436597.2015.1029225?casa_token=fHwG9b9DJo4AAAAA:CjVAQX4s8atj6ShDVvLpaqYWvxr3gVeIdKJFWOcTyuSIfatrnKSt2z1X1WEsqiZi_pyMwu16xPxZww">land sovereigntists</a> remain important players in our food systems. They have strong <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ldr.2364?casa_token=zHPsU-C3DagAAAAA%3AU39zW6CN6hxRtPI0JA6LCfsgGL35tkM0nqrCxoCnNsfy6sdE0KE2wiKS2Hjk0JSREvh1BwnyXoVJMzD-">local and traditional knowledge of the land</a> and how to grow food while <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3184/003685012X13504990668392?casa_token=y4kKkutCcQAAAAAA:DD063Op-cFVOxYphWpLv7osRkTFVrj8JC0zUjPoSgEoGHB_t1FcnD4yXGipsnP_zCLSaZn4_3mouXw">keeping soil healthy</a>. Breaking down the knowledge silos within the food system will help to make the production and distribution of lab-grown meats more resilient. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319887/original/file-20200311-116281-151uhl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319887/original/file-20200311-116281-151uhl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319887/original/file-20200311-116281-151uhl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319887/original/file-20200311-116281-151uhl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319887/original/file-20200311-116281-151uhl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319887/original/file-20200311-116281-151uhl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319887/original/file-20200311-116281-151uhl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Calves on the Grazed Right cattle ranch near Black Diamond, Alta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
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<p>For lab-grown meat to work, it can’t be the sole solution to reducing our traditional meat consumption. Technology needs to work in support of traditional food production, in tandem with other ways of producing food — regenerative agriculture, plant-based protein production and Indigenous food sovereignty movements. </p>
<p>For example, one technology company developed a <a href="http://smartmachines.bluerivertechnology.com/">robotic weeder</a> that uses machine learning to distinguish between crops and weeds. It then sprays only the weeds with herbicides to <a href="http://cityofgenevany.com/wp-content/uploads/Bai-Ogbourne2016_Article_GlyphosateEnvironmentalContami.pdf">reduce the amount of harmful chemicals that end up on our plates</a>.</p>
<p>Using a blend of traditional food production and thoughtfully applied modern technologies will help build more adaptive and resilient food systems. This will also help us to make affordable foods for a large amount of people. </p>
<h2>Co-creating solutions in our food systems</h2>
<p>Collaborations between farmers, researchers and other stakeholders will help to amplify solutions and mitigate the challenges we face in agriculture due to climate change. </p>
<p>There are examples of these collaborations beginning to form. In southern Ontario, there is a working demonstration farm called <a href="https://www.adigidea.com/thedigidea">Ontario D.I.G.</a> where farmers can learn how to integrate their skills and knowledge with new technologies. </p>
<p>This helps those working in agriculture gain access to resources around the world and demonstrates the melding of modern and traditional technology.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-smart-cities-for-a-minute-we-need-to-talk-about-smart-farms-112187">Forget smart cities (for a minute), we need to talk about smart farms</a>
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<p>Climate change is <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0228305">already beginning to impact our agricultural systems</a>. Building resiliency through collaboration across industries may be an important part of making our food systems not only more sustainable, but more equitable. </p>
<p>If lab-grown meat is truly supposed to be the next frontier in ethical eating, it’s important to consider what ethical values are prioritized in its creation — and who is most at risk of being left behind in the race to develop it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132653/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Duignan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If lab-grown meat is truly going to be the next frontier in ethical eating, it’s important to consider who’s most at risk of being left behind in the race to develop it.Sarah Duignan, PhD Candidate, Host of AnthroDish Podcast, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.