tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/dan-andrews-107497/articlesDan Andrews – The Conversation2023-09-27T08:38:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144882023-09-27T08:38:15Z2023-09-27T08:38:15ZWord from The Hill: Assessing Daniel Andrews, the extraordinary Pezzullo story, senators give Qantas chiefs a hard time<p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics editor Amanda Dunn discuss Victorian premier Daniel Andrews’ exit, as well as the revelation of extraordinary texts from leading public servant Mike Pezzullo promoting his views to the Coalition government through a Liberal insider. </p>
<p>They also canvass the Senate inquiry into the Qatar Airways saga, with Qantas chairman Richard Goyder and its new CEO Vanessa Hudson given a very hard time by committee members at a hearing on Wednesday.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian premier Daniel Andrews' exit, the extraordinary story of Mike Pezzullo's text messages, and the Senate inquiry into QANTAS and the Qatar Airways saga. Catch up this week's politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143722023-09-26T04:07:36Z2023-09-26T04:07:36ZDan Andrews quits after nine years as premier of Victoria<p>Dan Andrews has announced he is quitting, after nearly nine years as premier and three election wins. </p>
<p>Andrews’ surprise announcement came early Tuesday afternoon. He said his resignation would take effect at 5pm Wednesday. </p>
<p>He told a news conference it was not an easy decision “because as much as we have achieved together, there’s so much more to do. But when it’s time, it’s time”.</p>
<p>He said recently, in talking to his family, “thoughts of what life will be like after this job has started to creep in.</p>
<p>"I have always known that the moment that happens it is time to go and to give this privilege, this amazing responsibility, to someone else.”</p>
<p>Andrews, 51, who became premier in December 2014, has been a highly controversial state leader, instigating the toughest lockdowns in the country during COVID. But despite criticisms of that, he won the November 2022 election handsomely. Andrews said he had never been focused on being “100 per cent popular”.</p>
<p>He said he came to his decision fairly recently. But it was right to “go when they are asking you to stay”.</p>
<p>“I am worse than a workaholic,” he said, with every waking moment consumed with the work. He did not know what he would do next. He wouldn’t do much for a while.</p>
<p>Andrews said when he had previously declared he would stay for the duration of this parliamentary term, “it was true then”. He had since changed his mind. </p>
<p>The state caucus will meet on Wednesday to anoint a new premier, with Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan widely favoured. Andrews said if there was a ballot he would be voting.</p>
<p>He had spoken to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who was “a bit shocked”. “I thanked him for the partnership.” </p>
<p>Earlier this year another longstanding Labor premier, Mark McGowan in Western Australia, resigned unexpectedly. </p>
<p>Albanese said Andrews was a man of “great conviction, enormous compassion, and a fierce determination to make a difference”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is stepping down after nine years in the job.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100542023-07-19T06:44:56Z2023-07-19T06:44:56ZCancelling the Commonwealth Games won’t come cheaply – Victoria now faces the legal consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538222/original/file-20230719-26-wx31ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=431%2C10%2C6096%2C4546&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The cancellation of the 2026 Commonwealth Games by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews took all stakeholders – Commonwealth Games officials, athletes, sports bodies and local government officials – by surprise. </p>
<p>The Andrews administration will likely deal with the political fallout from not honouring its contract to host the games, but there may be legal and reputational damage ahead. </p>
<p>The principal reason given for pulling out of the games was financial. The Victorian government has said that based on its projections, the costs had ballooned from the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/melbourne-games-would-have-cost-more-than-4b-andrews-20230719-p5dpdy.html">initial projection</a> of A$2.6 billion to more than A$6 billion. Such an investment could no longer be justified.</p>
<p>There were hints earlier this year that a significant reassessment of Victoria’s commitment to the games was taking place. </p>
<p>In the state budget for 2023–24, delivered in May, the treasury admitted the risks to Victoria’s economic outlook were greater than normal. The state has a growing debt burden, with net debt <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/borrowing-to-build-daniel-andrews-fires-up-over-victoria-s-growing-debt-20230525-p5db7r.html">forecast</a> to grow from about $135.4 billion in 2024 to $171.4 billion by 2026–27. </p>
<p>These projections mean Victoria’s net debt as a proportion of the state economy would, by the time the games were to take place in 2026, be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-s-debt-risks-doubling-in-a-decade-budget-office-warns-20230603-p5ddn8.html">approaching 24%</a>. This is also going to be an election year in Victoria. </p>
<p>Victoria’s debt is due in part to long periods of lockdown during the COVID pandemic, which necessitated significant public spending. In some senses, the Commonwealth Games could be said to be a victim of long COVID.</p>
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<h2>Other reasons behind the cancellation</h2>
<p>Behind the financial reasons for cancelling the games, there were a number of other factors in play. </p>
<p>First, it would be far easier in financial, contractual and reputational terms to not honour a contact with the Commonwealth Games Federation than it would be to pull out of an Olympics or a World Cup. The revenues generated by the Commonwealth Games in terms of sponsorships, broadcasting, ticketing and sports tourism are a fraction of those generated during one of the other two mega-events.</p>
<p>Second, in a sporting context, the largest sports in Victoria – Australian Rules football, the football and rugby codes and cricket – will largely be unaffected by Victoria not hosting the games. Other sports such as swimming and field hockey, for which the games are important in terms of participation, broadcasting and commercial exposure for the athletes, are easier for the government to let down.</p>
<p>Third, the blowback from regional Victoria, which was to be the hosting hub for the games, will be softened by the fact that investment commitments will still be upheld by the government. Some <a href="https://www.insideconstruction.com.au/news/victorian-government-axes-commonwealth-games-as-costs-soar/#:%7E:text=Premier%20Andrews%20said%20the%20state,provide%20a%20new%20%24150%20million">$2 billion</a> will be directed to social and affordable housing and other infrastructure commitments in the regions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-cities-hosting-major-sporting-events-is-a-double-edged-sword-76929">For cities, hosting major sporting events is a double-edged sword</a>
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<h2>A breach of contract and likely settlement</h2>
<p>However, the issue for government lawyers as they deal with the ramifications of walking away from the host contract is that, in strict legal terms, all of this context is irrelevant to the other party, the Commonwealth Games Federation.</p>
<p>In signing a contract, the Victorian government was saying it was willing and financially able to host the games. And the federation had the legitimate expectation the games would be delivered, as per the contract.</p>
<p>It is very unlikely this matter will end up in court – it will almost certainly be settled through compensation to the federation for breach of contract. </p>
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<p>On damages, Katie Sadleir, the chief executive of the Commonwealth Games Federation, <a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/world/europe/devastating-andrews-government-assured-us-on-event-says-commonwealth-games-federation-chief-20230719-p5dpcs.html">said</a> expected revenues would be taken into account.</p>
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<p>There are a series of clauses [in the host contract] that articulate the kind of cash flows that would have happened if the games had gone on. </p>
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<p>There are likely also to be discussions on compensation for the reputational damage that has been done to the Commonwealth Games brand and for the logistical nightmare of searching for a new host.</p>
<p>Commonwealth Games representatives are likely to question the government’s projections of cost blowouts and ask whether they had been exaggerated to provide cover for pulling out of the contract. The initial cost projections were in line with the costs of recent games in the Gold Coast (2018) and Birmingham (2022). </p>
<p>Plus, independent reports suggested the Birmingham games resulted in a considerable net benefit to the <a href="https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/news/article/1263/birmingham_2022_contributes_870million_to_uk_economy">English Midlands region</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, the federation is likely to stress that what the Victorian government did is highly unusual in the history of mega sporting events. </p>
<p>Another argument the federation could make: it was the government’s decision to host the games in its regional areas (thus entailing significant infrastructure costs). </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/sport/ruinously-expensive-sa-wa-rule-out-picking-up-2026-commonwealth-games-20230718-p5dp5p.html">John Coates</a>, vice president of the International Olympic Committee, this regional model was never workable without federal support. Now, the fact it proved unworkable is a loss the Victoria government must bear.</p>
<h2>Reputational damage for the games themselves</h2>
<p>There is no doubt the Victorian government is currently in an uncomfortable spot. Victoria prides itself as being the sporting centre of Australia. It hosts the Boxing Day Test, followed by the Australian Open, the Formula One Grand Prix, the AFL Grand Finals and the Melbourne Cup. There will be some collateral reputational damage associated with this decision.</p>
<p>In the longer term, the Commonwealth Games are also now in a confronting position. The games are not as popular or prominent as they once were. Although the Olympics can carry it off as a commercial juggernaut, hosting a multi-sports event once every four years is difficult to sustain with ever-increasing costs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/existential-questions-is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-commonwealth-games-209961">'Existential questions': is this the beginning of the end of the Commonwealth Games?</a>
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<p>The sports world moves on quickly and to be blunt the appeal of the Commonwealth Games is struggling to maintain the pace. Even though the cancellation was a shock on Tuesday, the attention of the Australian sporting public was soon diverted to the next Ashes cricket test and the Women’s World Cup.</p>
<p>The inaugural edition of the Commonwealth Games – then known as the British Empire Games – was held in Hamilton, Ontario, in August 1930. A month earlier, the first edition of the men’s FIFA World Cup took place in Uruguay. </p>
<p>At the time, the events were of a similar magnitude. They are not anymore. </p>
<p>There is no doubt the centenary of the FIFA World Cup in 2030 will be a genuinely global celebration. The legacy of Victoria’s aborted 2026 Commonwealth Games may well be that the 2030 centenary edition struggles even to find a host.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Anderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There will likely be a settlement between Victoria and the games organisers for breaching the contract. But the Commonwealth Games may be the ones to suffer long-term reputational damage.Jack Anderson, Professor of Sports Law, Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041912023-04-20T07:36:10Z2023-04-20T07:36:10ZThe rise of unaccountable ministerial advisors: why Victoria’s IBAC report should concern all Australians<p>This week, Victoria’s Independent Broad-Based Anti-corruption Commission (known as IBAC) <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/19/victoria-ibac-ministerial-adviser-union-contract">issued a finding</a> of “improper influence” on a public contract issued by the Victorian government in 2018.</p>
<p>IBAC did not find any “corrupt conduct” under the IBAC Act and no minister was directly involved.</p>
<p>On this basis, it might be possible to dismiss this report as the regrettable result of a complex governmental apparatus. After all, this was a small contract in the grand scheme of Victorian state spending, and you might think the news cycle should move on to focus on more important issues.</p>
<p>But this report should not be ignored. It casts important light on a growing threat to Australian parliamentary democracy: the exercise of public power by unaccountable ministerial advisors.</p>
<h2>Operation Daintree</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/publications-and-resources/article/operation-daintree-special-report">Operation Daintree report</a> investigated a $1.2 million contract between the Victorian health department and the Health Education Federation (HEF) to provide occupational violence and aggression training to health workers. The contract was signed in the hours before Victoria’s government went into caretaker mode prior to the 2018 election (the government can’t sign contracts in caretaker mode).</p>
<p>Despite having no relevant experience in this kind of training, HEF received this contract without a competitive tender process.</p>
<p>IBAC found two ministerial advisors “improperly influenced” this contract. These advisors – who are employed by the premier under Victorian law – put pressure on key public servants to award the contract to HEF.</p>
<p>Former Health Minister Jenny Mikakos <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/daintree-exposes-fundamental-weakness-in-how-victoria-is-governed-20230419-p5d1ko.html">described</a> this pressure as a reflection of the interest of the “premier’s office” in “accommodat[ing] any union concerns”.</p>
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<h2>A threat to responsible government</h2>
<p>Australian democracy is built on the concept of “responsible government” in which parliament holds governmental ministers to account through lawmaking and oversight. Although parliament doesn’t actually prosecute governmental misconduct, its role as overseer generates crucial information and publicity that holds these governmental ministers politically accountable.</p>
<p>Operation Daintree details an emerging gap in this traditional form of democratic oversight and accountability: the rise of powerful ministerial advisors. </p>
<p>Ministerial advisors are more powerful than ever at all levels of Australian government. For instance, former prime minister Tony Abbott’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, was widely regarded as one of the powerful players in the federal government at the time. One Liberal Party insider <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/pops/Papers_on_Parliament_68/Between_Law_and_Convention_Ministerial_Advisers_in_the_Australian_System_of_Responsible_Government">said of her</a>: “She’s tough, she’s a player, she makes demands, she gives directions, she bawls people out.” </p>
<p>While these advisors play an increasingly powerful role in governance, they tend to operate in the shadows. In contrast to the rigorous standards of independence for public servants, ministerial advisors are political appointees who are largely accountable only to their minister. For instance, advisors are generally thought to be <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UTasLawRw/2016/5.html">immune from testifying to parliament</a>. </p>
<p>In this position, they can <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Gridlock-Grattan-Report.pdf">operate</a> in a way they think the minister would support, while providing plausible deniability to that same minister. </p>
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<p>This problem isn’t unique to Victoria. It also emerged in the so-called “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/bridget-mckenzie-gaetjens-report-sports-grants/101627502">sports rorts</a>” scandal under former prime minister Scott Morrison. </p>
<p>In that case, Commonwealth grants were awarded to sports clubs in important constituencies in the upcoming election. The relevant minister, Bridget McKenzie, sought to <a href="https://theconversation.com/sports-rorts-shows-the-government-misunderstands-the-public-service-130796">deflect blame</a> for this allocation of money onto unnamed advisors. </p>
<p>Associate Professor Yee-Fui Ng at Monash University describes their rise broadly as <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Rise-of-Political-Advisors-in-the-Westminster-System/Ng/p/book/9781032095561">contributing</a> to the “erosion” of ministerial responsibility. </p>
<h2>Injecting accountability back into the system</h2>
<p>How can we address this increasing problem of unaccountable ministerial advisors? </p>
<p>One option is expanding the Ministerial Staff Code of Conduct to cover more of their activities. This would go some way to bringing them out of the shadows.</p>
<p>But another vital reform is to shine more light on advisors. Parliament must hold ministers – including the prime minister or premier – responsible for the actions of their advisors. This should happen through an independent parliamentary committee that has the explicit legal authority to call both ministers and their advisors to answer for their actions.</p>
<p>IBAC hints at this very solution in the report. In the report, IBAC says the Victorian parliament may hold the premier “personally responsible” for “the conduct of his staff and its consequences, where he was aware of their actions or ought reasonably to have been aware of them”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-anti-corruption-commission-actually-stamp-out-corruption-in-government-191759">Will the National Anti-Corruption Commission actually stamp out corruption in government?</a>
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<p>The obvious institution to do this would be an independent Parliamentary Ethics Committee, which IBAC and the ombudsman called for in the <a href="https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/docs/default-source/special-reports/recommendations---operation-watts-special-report---july-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=123e1e5f_6">Operation Watts report</a> in 2022. </p>
<p>This committee should have the power to call witnesses and further investigate unethical conduct that does not meet the definition of corrupt conduct. This kind of parliamentary inquiry would shine important light on bad governance and serve as a powerful deterrent for further actions like this.</p>
<p>This solution carries broader lessons, too. It suggests that improving governmental integrity – particularly the kind of so-called “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-20/victoria-ibac-corruption-report-labor-daniel-andrews-government/102242862">grey corruption</a>” at issue here – isn’t just the business of anti-corruption bodies. It also must be the business of parliament. </p>
<p>Independent committee scrutiny of unethical behaviour is just one example of parliamentary involvement. It could also include stronger legal requirements that ministers (including the premier or prime minister) respond openly to questions from parliament.</p>
<p>Overall, these reforms are critical in ensuring parliament is restored as the <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/rebuilding-victoria-s-forgotten-integrity-institution">original integrity institution</a> in Australian parliamentary democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204191/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Partlett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The report casts important light on a growing threat to Australian parliamentary democracy: the exercise of public power by unaccountable ministerial advisors.William Partlett, Associate Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1721402021-11-21T09:11:02Z2021-11-21T09:11:02ZWhy the Victorian protests should concern us all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432968/original/file-20211121-25-1xg5w10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/James Ross</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the weekend, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/travel-bubble-with-singapore-comes-into-effect-as-victoria-records-1275-new-covid-19-cases-four-deaths-20211121-p59ann.html">tens of thousands of people gathered</a> in Melbourne to protest vaccine mandates and the Victorian government’s proposed pandemic bill.</p>
<p>While the latest protests were relatively peaceful, they have followed a week of similar gatherings whose language and symbolism were at times violent. The protesters are a mix of groups, but the movement is riddled with far-right and alt-right extremists who, with their growing reach through social media and in the context of developments in the United States and Europe, pose one of the more significant challenges to Australian democracy in recent memory.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-almost-like-grooming-how-anti-vaxxers-conspiracy-theorists-and-the-far-right-came-together-over-covid-168383">'It's almost like grooming': how anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, and the far-right came together over COVID</a>
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<h2>Who are the protesters?</h2>
<p>This is not an easy question to answer because it is a complex gathering of groups.<br>
Some are simply responding to what they see as over-reach by the state on its <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-controversial-pandemic-bill-6-ways-for-the-government-to-show-it-is-serious-about-scrutiny-171600">pandemic bill</a> or its vaccine mandates. </p>
<p>However, as we’ve seen with the anti-lockdown protests during the course of the pandemic, this is a movement grounded in anger and resentment. These are people who feel a deep sense of powerlessness and frustration: they may have lost their jobs, been cut off from family and friends, and they may be deeply suspicious of, if not outright hostile to, the vaccines. To them, these protests might be empowering at a time when they feel completely disempowered and forgotten. </p>
<p>But there is no doubt that, at the heart of the protests – their ideological roots, so to speak – are extremism and conspiracy theories. An analysis of their online activity and forums, as well as the imagery and language of the protests themselves, offers plenty of evidence of this.</p>
<p>Central to it is a deep distrust of science, a strong belief in conspiracies, including the notion of “big pharma” driving public policy, and a new world order of evil “liberal elites” who abuse children and rule over global affairs.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-qanon-is-attracting-so-many-followers-in-australia-and-how-it-can-be-countered-144865">QAnon</a> is probably the best-known group associated with that thinking. There is also an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/religion/covid-conspiracies-and-conspirituality/12760976">embedded spiritual framing</a>, patriotism and most alarmingly, <a href="https://journals.uic.edu/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/10168/10065">anti-semitism that intersects</a> with these far-right narratives. </p>
<p>One of the most important features of all this is the nuance with which it is carried out. It is a movement reliant on symbolism, hand signals, and single-word slogans such as “<em>qui</em>?” (French for “who?”) to <a href="https://www.media-diversity.org/how-qui-who-became-the-new-antisemitic-slogan-of-the-far-right-and-conspiracy-theorists-in-france/">get the message across</a>.</p>
<p>This is all cloaked in patriotic symbology, with the Australian flag highly visible at the marches and patriotic folk songs sung over loudspeakers.</p>
<p>There are certainly far-right extremists at the Melbourne rallies. So why Melbourne? It may be, to a large extent, because Victoria in general, and Melbourne in particular, have borne the harshest of the lockdowns during the two years of the pandemic. But these groups are around the country, and are watching what is happening in Victoria in the hope of feeding off it. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432969/original/file-20211121-17-2ki62h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432969/original/file-20211121-17-2ki62h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432969/original/file-20211121-17-2ki62h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432969/original/file-20211121-17-2ki62h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432969/original/file-20211121-17-2ki62h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432969/original/file-20211121-17-2ki62h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432969/original/file-20211121-17-2ki62h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Anti-vaccine policy protest is central to the Melbourne marches.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/James Ross</span></span>
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<h2>What do they want?</h2>
<p>Again, this is hard to know, exactly, and there will be diverse views within the protest groups. Some want simple actions: the end of vaccine mandates or the destruction of the pandemic bill. These are, of course, legitimate democratic aims whether others agree with them or not. For some, the protest is the point, offering them a sense of solidarity and belonging.</p>
<p>However for others, including the numerous members of far right groups pictured at the protests, steering the protests toward more extreme language, actions and recruiting from among those attending are key aims. They are often supported by so-called “<a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-01-13/some-who-stormed-the-capitol-insist-what-i-did-was-journalism">citizen journalists</a>” who are themselves closely aligned with far-right ideologies.</p>
<h2>Direct from the US</h2>
<p>These protests are deeply connected to what is happening in the US, the roots of which stretch back to far-right groups gaining momentum in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-08. They were then further encouraged by the Trump campaign and presidency. Through social media, their ideas and symbolism have been transported to Australia. </p>
<p>Even a cursory glance at encrypted messaging apps reveals many of those involved in planning and coordinating the Melbourne protests draw direct inspiration from events in the United States, including the January 6 Capitol insurrection. </p>
<p>Politicians and commentators have expressed outrage at the parading of a noose at the Victorian parliament last week, yet this was drawn directly from events on January 6, when protesters <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-defends-hang-mike-pence-chant-jan-6-1256951/">threatened to hang</a> the US vice-president as a traitor. </p>
<p>Violent language at the Victorian protests, such as <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/daniel-andrews-has-slammed-the-small-ugly-mob-protesting-victoria-s-pandemic-bill/c43ee10d-3eb3-4edf-8f29-c8641d3663eb">threats to kill</a> Premier Dan Andrews, borrow heavily from far-right American literature and rhetoric, which suggests “traitors” will soon meet their end.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-qanon-is-attracting-so-many-followers-in-australia-and-how-it-can-be-countered-144865">Why QAnon is attracting so many followers in Australia — and how it can be countered</a>
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<h2>What might happen now?</h2>
<p>It’s hard to say whether this movement is growing: it’s certainly gaining momentum through these protests, and gaining a potential base of recruitment. </p>
<p>But the question is how many people at these protests would still go if they knew who they were marching alongside? </p>
<p>Certainly, counter-terrorism police will be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/far-right-protester-charged-by-counter-terror-police-amid-talk-of-killing-daniel-andrews-20211117-p599qx.html">looking closely</a> at all this activity, especially threats of violence against politicians and others. They will also be interested in attempts by far-right groups to recruit new members. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432970/original/file-20211121-17-dit8t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432970/original/file-20211121-17-dit8t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432970/original/file-20211121-17-dit8t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432970/original/file-20211121-17-dit8t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432970/original/file-20211121-17-dit8t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432970/original/file-20211121-17-dit8t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432970/original/file-20211121-17-dit8t8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Much of the rhetoric of the far-right groups involved has been transported directly from the US, given much momentum by the Capitol Riots on January 6.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/AP/JT/STAR MAX/IPx</span></span>
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<p>We now find ourselves in a highly polarised political landscape driven by two years of severe lockdown, and the politicisation of the pandemic. On the one hand, government disaster management approaches need to better account for the ways that governance in a time of crisis <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/countering-extremism-midst-coronavirus">plays into the hands</a> of violent extremists. </p>
<p>There are also important political solutions. As unlikely as it seems at this point, what we really need is a bipartisan political approach that addresses legitimate concerns while shutting down extremist and violent activity. The two have become so entangled, it is by no means an easy task, but it is an essential one.</p>
<p>The protests should have a sobering effect on leaders of good sense who care about democracy. As we head into a federal election year in 2022, we are seeing the pre-conditions for fringe politicians with extremist views to be elected and hold the balance of power in parliament, by doing or saying whatever it takes to hold that power. </p>
<p>In that respect, if developments in the United States are any measure, Australian democracy is facing one of the greatest threats it has ever known. Those of good faith need to ensure they reaffirm the fundamental values of citizenship, democracy and peace, while allowing open debate on issues of contention and concern.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josh Roose receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DP200102013) for a Discovery Project titled: 'Far Right in Australia: Intellectuals, Masculinity and Citizenship'. Josh is a member of the Addressing Violent Extremism and Radicalisation to Terrorism Research Network (AVERT) Executive. He is a member of the Australian Labor Party. </span></em></p>Much of the imagery and language of the marches has been transported directly from far-right groups in the US – and it is posing a serious threat to Australian democracy.Josh Roose, Senior Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1672182021-09-02T12:02:35Z2021-09-02T12:02:35ZGrattan on Friday: The transition to living with ‘endemic’ COVID could be rough<p>In the Orwellian world of the pandemic, Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews’s raising of the white flag on “COVID zero” was greeted positively by the Morrison government and with relief by many among the public who are at the end of their tether.</p>
<p>We’ve now officially moved into a new stage. As federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said on Thursday, “the pandemic has become endemic”.</p>
<p>In accepting Victoria couldn’t get back near zero, Andrews was following NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian, who lost control of the virus, with daily new cases in that state now running well above a thousand and rising.</p>
<p>Only weeks ago there were hopes of suppressing the outbreaks in both states. When it was becoming obvious NSW was failing, Berejiklian was criticised for not locking down early and hard enough. Andrews went hard immediately – and failed too.</p>
<p>“Living with COVID is a reality – it’s not an option,” Berejiklian said on Thursday, sending the blunt message to premiers still set on COVID-minimalism that they’d have to accept the Delta world.</p>
<p>As they will. But not for some time, if they can help it.</p>
<p>Watching Australia’s third wave escalate, the Labor states of Western Australia and Queensland are dug in, trenchantly and vociferously, behind their efforts to keep cases out. The brawling between them and the Morrison government took on an even sharper edge this week.</p>
<p>In contrast, Morrison praised the Liberal premiers of South Australia and Tasmania, who are also pursuing COVID zero, but keeping their heads down.</p>
<p>Australia’s federation is now more fractured than at any time during this crisis, in a toxic mix of policy differences and politics, exacerbated by the approaching federal election.</p>
<p>WA’s Mark McGowan must be concerned as to how he’ll eventually reintegrate his state into the rest of the country, which he accepts must happen at some point. With WA vaccination levels lagging, he’s not tying himself down but says he’ll set a date when “the time is right” (assuming he’s not mugged by a runaway outbreak). He wants to ensure vulnerable sections of the population are fully protected. The state’s isolation and insulation help him.</p>
<p>Economic imperatives for WA’s opening will strengthen, but McGowan can usually outplay the federal government on the politics.</p>
<p>Last year Scott Morrison had to make an embarrassing withdrawal from the Clive Palmer challenge (subsequently lost) to the WA border closure, after it became clear local public opinion was strongly on the state government’s side.</p>
<p>This week federal Attorney-General Michaelia Cash, who’s from WA, mused about how an action could be more successful in the changed circumstances of a vaccinated population (not that the federal government is planning to launch a case).</p>
<p>McGowan seized the baseball bat. “West Australians don’t want me to bring [the border] down now, to give in to this sort of crazy bullying by the federal government, and infect our population, lose jobs and shut down part of our economy, including the mining industry,” he said.</p>
<p>This highlights, incidentally, a point often overlooked in the heated political rows. Talk about “opening” WA and Queensland refers to opening borders. Internally, these states are “open” – unlike the shuttered NSW and Victoria.</p>
<p>McGowan is usually careful to avoid overreach. In contrast, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk went over the top when she defended her closed border with an emotive claim about the danger to young children.</p>
<p>“You open up this state and you let the virus in here, and every child under 12 is vulnerable, every single child,” she told state parliament on Wednesday. These children were “vulnerable because they are the unvaccinated”.</p>
<p>The federal government, and other critics, retorted that while young children caught the virus, very few got a severe illness, and they’ve not so far been vaccinated in other countries (although vaccination is being trialled in the US).</p>
<p>In the border wars, it’s worth remembering the big border decisions – about reopening Australia to the world – rest with the federal government.</p>
<p>There are multiple fronts – not just Australians travelling abroad and returning home, but also the admission of foreign tourists, students, workers to fill serious skill shortages, and migrants. The relaxation won’t be done all at once; even so it will be challenging – for example, needing home quarantine arrangements as well as vaccination requirements.</p>
<p>The government’s COVID strategy is built around the national cabinet “plan”, underpinned by the Doherty Institute’s modelling, and buttressed with the catchword “hope” and the promise of a great Christmas.</p>
<p>But grim realities will accompany the transition.</p>
<p>NSW is likely to reach 3,000-4,000 daily new cases this month, while Victoria is expected to rise above 1,000 daily. In NSW, the state government is bracing for the month of October to be very bad, in hospitalisations and deaths.</p>
<p>More generally, the Australian Medical Association wrote to Morrison this week warning of a looming crisis in the public hospital system.</p>
<p>“As it stands, our hospital system is not ready to cope with an easing of restrictions, even with increased vaccination rates,” the letter from AMA president Omar Khorshid said. “To prepare we must develop a detailed understanding of our current hospital capacity and model the impact of ‘living with COVID-19’, with the associated caseload increase.”</p>
<p>The AMA suggested a vaccination rate of higher than 80% of the adult population was likely to be required, “given the existing constraints on hospital capacity and staffing”.</p>
<p>With Friday’s national cabinet receiving a report on the health system and its workforce, the government appears inclined to regard the AMA pitch as part of its periodic appeal for more hospital funding.</p>
<p>But from what we’ve seen in NSW, with some hospitals coming under acute pressure, and evidence the WA system is already inadequate, hospitals are clearly a potential weak point in our defences as COVID cases rise quickly after restrictions are eased in coming months.</p>
<p>We know the Morrison government is now totally focused on getting life back to some normality. It stresses this will be done “safely”.</p>
<p>In fact, it is less a matter of opening “safely” than minimising the risks inevitable in opening. That goes beyond the state of the health system to include issues such as sub-groups in the population who might not be adequately vaccinated when the general community levels of 70% and 80% are reached. Dealing with the risks will demand more nuance than “the plan” seems to provide.</p>
<p>The government is banking on the attention of people – who are now deeply frustrated if they live in NSW or Victoria – shifting decisively off the health issues once life is freer. That, however, will depend on effective management of an unpredictable transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews’s raising of the white flag on “COVID zero” was greeted positively by the Morrison government and with relief by many among the public who are at the end of their tether.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1646992021-07-18T13:12:31Z2021-07-18T13:12:31ZView from The Hill: Morrison and Coalition sink in Newspoll on the back of rollout shambles<p>Support for Scott Morrison and the government have slumped in Newspoll, in a major backlash against the botched vaccine rollout. </p>
<p>Labor has surged to a two-party lead of 53-47%, compared with 51-49% in the previous poll in late June.</p>
<p>The Australian reports the latest result is the worse for the Coalition this term, and if replicated at an election would deliver the government a clear loss.</p>
<p>Satisfaction with Morrison’s handling of the pandemic – which now sees lockdowns in the nation’s two largest states – plunged nine points in the last three weeks to 52%. </p>
<p>As the brought-forward Pfizer supplies start to arrive, confidence in the government’s management of the rollout is negative for the first time, with only 40% believing it being handled satisfactorily. </p>
<p>Morrison’s net approval in Newspoll – plus 6 – is at its lowest since the bushfire crisis, with an eight point overall shift. Anthony Albanese’s position worsened a little – he is on net minus 8. Despite a small drop, Morrison retains a solid lead over Albanese as better PM – 51-33% </p>
<p>Both Labor and the Coalition are polling 39% on primary votes – a two point fall for the Coalition and an equal rise for Labor.</p>
<p>The poll saw an 18 point drop in satisfaction with Morrison’s handling of COVID since April. </p>
<p>Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the rollout was 53% in April and 50% in late June - in this poll 40% are satisfied with the handling and 57% are not. </p>
<p>Sky News at the weekend reported Morrison had urged NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian to strengthen the Sydney lockdown. She did so soon after.</p>
<p>The prime ministerial intervention was likely superfluous because it was already clear harsher measures were needed. But it was notable on a couple of grounds.</p>
<p>In the past Morrison strongly leaned to lockdown scepticism, praising Berejiklian as a woman after his own heart and pointing to the NSW gold standard of limiting restrictions.</p>
<p>The much more infectious Delta variant has forced a change in the positions of both leaders.</p>
<p>Also, the Morrison intervention looked like the prime minister playing himself into the sharp end of the current COVID action, which is concentrated at the state level.</p>
<p>As both the NSW and Victorian governments struggle with serious outbreaks and the detail of their lockdowns, Morrison must be frustrated with his lack of direct power – apart from repeatedly restocking the ATM.</p>
<p>That’s of course leaving aside the vaccine rollout, a federal responsibility, the mishandling of which Newspoll shows is dramatically burning the PM’s voter support. </p>
<p>Late last week, Morrison finally spoke with Pfizer chairman and CEO Albert Bouria. This call, federal sources say, had been scheduled some while ago. It is not clear whether that was before or after the PM heard of Kevin Rudd’s contact with Bouria. </p>
<p>The federal government insists the Pfizer bring-forward was entirely due to its efforts and nothing to do with Rudd. Even so, it was a bad look to be talking direct to Bouria so late in the piece, and after Rudd. It had all the appearance of catch up.</p>
<p>As things stand, Berejiklian, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and Morrison are simultaneously under a great deal of heat.</p>
<p>In dealing with COVID, as Berejiklian will attest, you can go from hero to villain very rapidly; hailed in May as “the woman who saved Australia”, she’s pilloried in July for stuffing things up.</p>
<p>Morrison is suffering the same shift in public judgement. And things are not likely to change in the near future – despite the brought-forward Pfizer supplies, there will be shortages for some time yet.</p>
<p>Of the two premiers fighting outbreaks, Berejiklian is under the greater pressure. She and Andrews took different approaches: Andrews locking down immediately and Berejiklian starting with a soft lockdown that had to be toughened (then going further on shutting construction than Andrews ever has).</p>
<p>Even if the five-day Victorian lockdown has to be extended, the situation there appears more manageable than in NSW. On Sunday, Victoria reported 16 locally acquired new cases, while in NSW there were 105.</p>
<p>Berejiklian is under siege simultaneously for not acting fast and strongly enough, and for abandoning her basic less restrictive approach.</p>
<p>The concentration of the NSW infection in south west Sydney has also complicated the situation, because (as Victoria knows) a heavily multicultural area needs particularly good communications and sensitive handling.</p>
<p>This new COVID crisis has seen another round of inter-governmental bickering.</p>
<p>Victoria seethes with retrospective resentment about how Coalition figures (federal and NSW) blamed it last year over its second wave that resulted in hundreds of deaths, mostly aged care residents.</p>
<p>Melbourne then and Sydney currently both had their crises triggered by lapses in quarantine arrangements. NSW is in a much better position to cope than Victoria was – but now the virus is more virulent, and there’s little confidence the Sydney lockdown won’t extend into August.</p>
<p>Last week the Andrews government labelled Morrison the “prime minister of NSW”, declaring that state had been treated more generously than Victoria was in its earlier lockdown this year. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg accused Andrews of “whingeing”. Andrews had a dig at NSW.</p>
<p>Andrews is always a tough operator – probably why he and Morrison have a grudging mutual respect. Last week Andrews made it clear he expected Victorian workers to get the latest full federal financial help, even though, if the lockdown were only five days, they’d fall short of fully meeting the federal conditions. Morrison complied.</p>
<p>The latest lockdowns come as polling just released by the Australia Institute, a progressive think tank, shows people’s faith in state governments’ handling of COVID at an all-time high.</p>
<p>The Australia Institute has been regularly polling the question “which level of government do you think is doing a better job of handling the COVID-19 crisis?”. Respondents were asked to choose between their state or territory, the federal government, both equally, or say they didn’t know.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411754/original/file-20210718-13-xfmub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Australia Institute</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In August last year, 31% chose their state/territory, 25% the federal government, and 32% rated the performances of both levels of government equally.</p>
<p>By April, 39% nominated their state or territory; 18% the federal government; 28% both.</p>
<p>Early this month (just as the NSW lockdown was starting) 42% rated their state or territory as the government doing better, 16% the federal government, and 24% both equally.</p>
<p>In NSW in July, 39% said the state government was doing the better job, 13% nominated the federal government; and 28% put both equally. The Victorian figures were 34%, 25% and 21%.</p>
<p>The Australia Institute interprets the response to COVID representing “a potential realignment of state-federal relations”.</p>
<p>Certainly the second year of the pandemic, like the first, is seeing the states showing little deference to the federal government when they perceive their core interests are at stake. They determine the lockdowns and, now JobKeeper has gone, NSW and Victoria have shown they are willing to play hardball to extract the best financial support for their citizens. And the Morrison government knows it will pay a political price if it is seen as a skinflint.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Support for Scott Morrison and the government have slumped in Newspoll, in a major backlash against the botched vaccine rollout.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.