tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/deterrence-8973/articlesDeterrence – The Conversation2023-12-04T13:28:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176402023-12-04T13:28:30Z2023-12-04T13:28:30ZCertain states, including Arizona, have begun scrapping court costs and fees for people unable to pay – two experts on legal punishments explain why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562784/original/file-20231130-19-9k4bbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Several U.S. states are eliminating criminal fines and fees for people who can't afford them. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/dollars-bills-with-law-gavel-legal-issues-royalty-free-image/1479990448?phrase=excessive+courts+costs+US&adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In today’s American criminal legal system, courts impose fines and fees as a means to punish people and hold them accountable for legal violations. </p>
<p>At times, people are sentenced to pay without incarceration, but frequently people across the U.S. are sentenced to both jail time and fiscal penalties. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1745-9133.12442">Those costs</a> are assessed by individual courts and include processing and filing charges, jury fees and fiscal penalties such as interest charges and late penalty fees. The collected money is then used to pay for costs such as the administration of court-appointed attorneys, probation, detention and diversion programs.</p>
<p>But these fines and fees are often levied without any consideration for an individual’s ability to pay – and <a href="https://www.thecharlottepost.com/news/2023/10/11/local-state/how-north-carolina-turns-the-poor-into-criminals/">can add up</a> to thousands of dollars. Given the potential consequences of legal debt on people unable to pay, including the loss of the right to vote and further criminal infractions, we conducted a <a href="https://www.rsfjournal.org/content/8/2/1/tab-article-info">multistate study</a> on the impact of fines and fees.</p>
<p>What we found is that these types of sanctions do not improve public safety or serve as an effective deterrent in reducing further crime. More troubling is that the negative consequences of fines and fees are disproportionately felt by people of color and those who are poor. </p>
<p>Because of these potential financial hardships and adverse effects, U.S. lawmakers have begun to limit the types and amounts of fines and fees that can be charged.</p>
<h2>What the research shows</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.7758/RSF.2022.8.2.01">our study of eight states</a> – California, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Washington, Georgia, Missouri and Texas – we found extreme variations in how court-imposed fines and fees were used.</p>
<p>Some states had <a href="https://www.rsfjournal.org/content/8/1/221">statutes mandating a minimum amount</a> of fines and fees to be imposed on people for specific crimes and infractions; other states did not. Some local judges sentenced people unable to pay to jail as a violation of their sentence; other judges in different counties within the same state did not. To collect outstanding debts, some states <a href="https://www.rsfjournal.org/content/8/1/82">even sued</a> formerly incarcerated people for the cost of their room and board; other states did not.</p>
<p>In Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, for instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1541204016669213">our research</a> there showed that financial burden increased the chances among juvenile offenders to commit additional crimes within two years of their initial arrests.</p>
<p>In another statewide <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/15412040231180816?journalCode=yvja">study in Florida</a>, we found that fees increased recidivism and, in particular, that Black youth with restitution fees had a higher recidivism likelihood. Our study further found that Black and Hispanic youth tended to receive higher fees compared to white youth regardless of the alleged crimes. The average fees for Black juveniles was US$709.50, and $633.30 for Hispanic youths. In stark contrast, the average fees for white juveniles was $426.50.</p>
<p>A wealth of <a href="https://www.rsfjournal.org/content/8/1/221">research has illustrated</a> how unpaid court fines and fees force people to make decisions regarding <a href="https://www.rsfjournal.org/content/8/2/57">housing</a>, <a href="https://www.rsfjournal.org/content/8/2/36">medical care</a>, education and even food and <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/pound-flesh">medication</a>. </p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-issues-dear-colleague-letter-courts-regarding-fines-and-fees-youth-and">April 23, 2023, letter</a>, the U.S. Department of Justice warned court officials and state agencies that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/22/justice-department-fines-pardons-gupta/">imposing fines and fees</a> on offenders who cannot pay may result in them losing their jobs, driver’s license, right to vote or even their home. </p>
<h2>Changes across the country</h2>
<p>Depending on the crime, Arizona juveniles and their parents faced <a href="https://www.azcourts.gov/selfservicecenter/Juvenile-Law/Vacating-Juvenile-Monetary-Obligations#Vacated">a slew of costs</a>, including probation supervision fees, family counseling services, drug and alcohol screenings and even a $25 administrative fee for court-appointed attorneys.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://legiscan.com/AZ/text/SB1197/2023">a new law</a> says they don’t have to pay any of those anymore. </p>
<p>Though the law does not put an end to fines relating to restitution charges or driving under the influence of alcohol charges, it does eliminate all fees assessed by a juvenile court — for court-appointed attorneys, probation, detention and diversion programs.</p>
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<img alt="A white woman stands in front of an American flag as she delivers a speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562549/original/file-20231129-23-wg1e6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562549/original/file-20231129-23-wg1e6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562549/original/file-20231129-23-wg1e6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562549/original/file-20231129-23-wg1e6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562549/original/file-20231129-23-wg1e6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562549/original/file-20231129-23-wg1e6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562549/original/file-20231129-23-wg1e6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has eliminated various fines and fees for juvenile offenders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/arizona-gov-katie-hobbs-gives-a-brief-speech-prior-to-news-photo/1695716056?adppopup=true">Rebecca Noble/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Arizona was not alone. Indiana, Illinois, Montana, California, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas and Virginia have also enacted similar laws that eliminate or reduce juvenile fines and fees. </p>
<p>As these states have learned, monetary sanctions do far more harm than good and inflict disproportionate hardship on those least able to pay them. </p>
<p>“These fees put unnecessary financial stress on children and their families when they should be focused on rehabilitation,” <a href="https://gilavalleycentral.net/governor-hobbs-signs-bill-relieving-arizona-families-from-excessive-legal-fees/">Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs</a> said in October 2023. “They hold individuals back at a time in their life when what they really need is help moving forward.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexes Harris receives funding from Arnold Ventures. She is affiliated with the Fines and Fees Justice Center as a board member.
Dr. Harris is the chair of the Washington State Advisory Committee to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights (non-partisan, Federally appointed). She is also the faculty regent to the University of Washington Board of Regents. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex R. Piquero received funding from Arnold Ventures to undertake the study in Florida referred to in the article. Professor Piquero receives no funding at this time from any sources and no external sources of funding were used to prepare this piece. </span></em></p>The imposition of fines and fees on people unable to pay has had a disproportionate impact on Black and Latino communities.Alexes Harris, Professor of Sociology, University of WashingtonAlex R. Piquero, Professor of Sociology & Criminology and Arts & Sciences Distinguished Scholar, University of MiamiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143932023-09-29T12:31:48Z2023-09-29T12:31:48ZSouth Africa has one of the strongest navies in Africa: its strengths and weaknesses<p><em>The deaths of three members of the South African Navy (<a href="http://www.navy.mil.za/Pages/Home.aspx">SA Navy</a>) <a href="http://www.dod.mil.za/media/statements/Pages/SANavyIncidentKommetjie.aspx">on 20 September 2023</a>, when a freak wave swept them off the deck of the submarine SAS Manthatisi, has put the spotlight on the organisation and its work. André Wessels is a military historian; his latest <a href="https://naledi.co.za/product/a-century-of-south-african-naval-history/">book</a> is A Century of South African Naval History: The South African Navy and its Predecessors 1922-2022. The Conversation Africa asked him for insights.</em></p>
<h2>How big is South Africa’s navy? How does it compare?</h2>
<p>The South African Navy has always been one of the strongest naval forces in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>Egypt has the <a href="https://naledi.co.za/product/a-century-of-south-african-naval-history/">strongest navy in Africa</a>, and Algeria is the second strongest as it has been steadily building <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/algeria/navy-modernization.htm">up its</a> naval forces. The Moroccan navy is also strong, as is the Nigerian navy, which has acquired <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/nigerian-navy-commissions-large-number-of-new-vessels/">a large number of naval vessels</a>, mostly patrol ships and smaller patrol craft. </p>
<p>Thanks to its submarine capabilities, the SA Navy can be regarded as one of the strongest on the continent. However, with its present ten “major” warships, the SA Navy is not in the same league as, for example, Brazil (about 100 ships), Russia (550), India (250) and China (600).</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/only-one-of-sa-navys-four-frigates-operational-no-submarines-serviceable/">sources</a> that are in the public domain, the SA Navy at the moment has three submarines, four frigates, one multi-mission inshore patrol vessel (with another to be commissioned in the near future, and a third under construction), one survey ship (with a new one under construction), one combat support ship, and a number of smaller craft (most of them in reserve). In terms of its number of warships, this is the smallest that the navy has been since the mid-1950s.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/money-has-little-to-do-with-why-south-africas-military-is-failing-to-do-its-job-81216">Money has little to do with why South Africa's military is failing to do its job</a>
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<p>Severe financial restrictions have put its capabilities under strain. For example, it has had to curtail anti-piracy patrols (<a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/operation-copper-extension-to-cost-r154-million/">“Operation Copper”</a>) in the Mozambique Channel due to the unavailability of ships.</p>
<h2>Can it protect the country’s territorial waters?</h2>
<p>Submarines provide South Africa with a crucial deterrent potential. And the navy can also do patrol work with its surface vessels (if they are able to go to sea). But it has a limited anti-submarine warfare capability, and is not able to project much power across long distances. </p>
<p>The government needs to gradually increase defence spending from the present less than 1% of GDP to at least 1.8%, which is what countries globally on average spend on defence. That will enable the navy to increase training opportunities, send more ships out to sea, and perhaps even acquire much-needed larger offshore patrol vessels.</p>
<p>South Africa is a maritime state, given that all its borders are on the ocean bar its northern one. The country needs a small but well-equipped navy that can defend it, underpin its diplomatic efforts, and assist other state departments in various ways.</p>
<h2>What’s its role?</h2>
<p>Geographically South Africa is a large <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/peninsula/">peninsula</a> on the strategic Cape sea route. Some <a href="https://sanavymuseum.co.za/2022/03/30/the-south-african-navy-a-very-brief-history/">90% of its trade</a> flows through its harbours. The navy must assist in ensuring the integrity of the country as an independent state, by patrolling its territorial waters and acting as a deterrent against foreign military aggression and maritime crime. Its <a href="https://sanavymuseum.co.za/2022/03/30/the-south-african-navy-a-very-brief-history/#:%7E:text=In%20accordance%20with%20the%20SA,well%2Dtrained%20and%20disciplined%20navy.">core business</a> is “to fight at sea”, with its official mission “to win at sea”. Its <a href="https://sanavymuseum.co.za/2022/03/30/the-south-african-navy-a-very-brief-history/#:%7E:text=In%20accordance%20with%20the%20SA,well%2Dtrained%20and%20disciplined%20navy.">vision</a> is</p>
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<p>The navy can also play a role in humanitarian relief operations, search-and-rescue operations and <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/EJC146027">peace support operations</a>. </p>
<p>In the course of its history, the SA Navy has performed these and many other tasks. For example, in 1993 it facilitated the <a href="https://giftofthegivers.org/disaster-response/bosnia/726/">sending of a mobile hospital and relief supplies</a> to Bosnia-Herzegovina, by <a href="https://giftofthegivers.org/">Gift of the Givers</a>, the disaster response NGO. The navy has also helped provide food and medical aid to countries ravaged by conflict or drought, for example when the combat support ship SAS Drakensberg took supplies to Bangladesh <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/EJC146027">in 1991</a>. The navy has also <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/final-voyage-for-veteran-ship-20011010">rescued the crew members</a> of many yachts that have been caught in storms or were in need of other assistance off the South African coast and elsewhere, for example during the 2014 Cape-to-Rio Transatlantic Yacht Race. </p>
<p>The navy is also responsible for hydrographic survey work along the South African coast. It maps the ocean floor so that reliable charts can be drawn up, making it safe for merchant and other ships to sail along the coast and visit ports. </p>
<p>In addition, the navy has an important diplomatic role in sending warships (<a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/EJC146027">“grey diplomats”</a>) on flag-showing visits to other countries. </p>
<p>But under <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/only-one-of-sa-navys-four-frigates-operational-no-submarines-serviceable/">financial constraints</a>, the navy has been hard-pressed to fulfil its obligations. For example, it has for several years not been able to take part in flag-showing visits to other countries because of the unavailability of ships. In general, less time has also been spent at sea. </p>
<h2>What is the history of the SA Navy?</h2>
<p>The navy can trace its history back to <a href="https://naledi.co.za/product/a-century-of-south-african-naval-history/">1 April 1922</a>, when the SA Naval Service was established. This became the Seaward Defence Force in 1939 when the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/World-War-II">Second World War</a> broke out, and the SA Naval Forces in 1942. It played a <a href="https://sanavymuseum.co.za/2022/03/30/the-south-african-navy-a-very-brief-history/">small but important role</a> in the Allied war effort against Nazi Germany, patrolling the South African coastal waters. It also sent warships to the Mediterranean and Far Eastern war zones.</p>
<p>On 1 January 1951, the Naval Forces were renamed the SA Navy. In accordance with the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230376366_5">Simon’s Town Agreement</a> (1955), the navy <a href="https://sanavymuseum.co.za/2022/03/30/the-south-african-navy-a-very-brief-history/">acquired</a> the Simon’s Town Naval Base from Britain (1957), and was strengthened by the acquisition of a number of destroyers, frigates, patrol boats and minesweepers, and later also a replenishment ship (1967) and three submarines (1970-1971). </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-military-is-set-for-personnel-reforms-why-it-matters-178064">South Africa's military is set for personnel reforms. Why it matters</a>
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<p>But by then, the ruling National Party’s apartheid policy had led to South Africa’s growing international isolation. The United Nations’ <a href="https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/south_africa/un-arms-embargo-on-south-africa">mandatory arms embargo</a> against the country (1977) had obvious detrimental consequences for the then South African Defence Force (SADF), and in particular the navy. For example, it did not receive the submarines and frigates that it had ordered from France.</p>
<p>In the meantime, the navy <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/EJC146027#page=5">assisted the other arms of the defence force</a>, in particular the SA Army’s Special Forces, during the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/namibian-struggle-independence-1966-1990-historical-background">Namibian war of independence</a>, which spilled over into Angola. The navy’s submarines and strike craft, as well as other ships, assisted the South African Special Forces <a href="https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP90-00965R000302080013-8.pdf">in operations</a> “behind enemy lines”.</p>
<p>The end of this conflict in 1989, and of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/question/How-did-apartheid-end">freedom struggle in South Africa in 1994</a>, led to a new dawn. On the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45346383?seq=4">eve of the 1994 elections</a> the SADF was renamed the SA National Defence Force (SANDF). </p>
<p>In due course the navy was transformed into a navy of and for all the people of South Africa. All cultural groups, as well as an increasing number of women, would henceforth be represented in the navy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Wessels in the years c 2012-2017 received funding from the NRF, but at the moment no longer receives any funds from the NRF. </span></em></p>South Africa is a large peninsula on the strategic Cape sea route. Some 90% of its trade flows through its harbours. The navy defends the country’s sovereignty and national interests.André Wessels, Senior Professor (Emeritus) and Research Fellow, Department of History, University of the Free StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112512023-08-16T12:27:35Z2023-08-16T12:27:35ZWar in Ukraine is a warning to China of the risks in attacking Taiwan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542624/original/file-20230814-9532-j5yrjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrators attend a pro-Ukraine rally in Taiwan in February 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-attend-the-pro-ukraine-rally-marking-the-one-year-news-photo/1247459886">Walid Berrazeg/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/is-china-planning-to-attack-taiwan-a-careful-consideration-of-available-evidence-says-no/">defense strategists warn</a> that China may use the distraction of the war in Ukraine to launch military action against Taiwan. They believe Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to gain control over the breakaway province – which has been beyond Beijing’s control since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 – before he leaves office.</p>
<p>In response to these concerns, in July 2023, the U.S. announced a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-military-aid-china-support-06e61a0e0ed787ea120f839ef59885fa">US$345 million military aid package</a> for Taiwan. For the first time, arms are being delivered to Taiwan from U.S. stockpiles under presidential drawdown authority, which does not require congressional approval. </p>
<p>Such fears have been heightened by the fact that China has stepped up its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/11/world/asia/china-taiwan-military.html">probes of Taiwan’s defenses</a> over the past year. Last month saw the release of an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-documentary-attack-invasion-chasing-dreams-4105d5f0bde59337d90f1e67d149b32c">eight-part docuseries</a> by state media broadcaster CCTV titled “Chasing Dreams” about the Chinese military’s readiness to attack Taiwan. </p>
<p><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3840337-generals-memo-spurs-debate-could-china-invade-taiwan-by-2025/">But opinion remains divided</a> over just how likely it is that Xi will launch a military action to occupy Taiwan, and whether the war in Ukraine makes such action <a href="https://globaltaiwan.org/2023/06/taiwanese-perspectives-on-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-and-its-implications/">more or less likely</a>.</p>
<h2>Factors making war more likely</h2>
<p>The main argument that the war in Ukraine makes a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely centers on the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/us-china-lessons-from-ukraine/">failure of the threat of U.S. sanctions</a> to deter Russia from invading. </p>
<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin believed that U.S. power, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26564945">weakened by the Trump presidency</a>, was <a href="https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/vladimir-putin-meets-with-valdai-discussion-club/">in decline</a>. He also knew – because <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-says-ground-troops-not-on-the-table-but-putin-would-face-severe-economic-sanctions-for-ukraine-invasion/2021/12/08/3b975d46-5843-11ec-9a18-a506cf3aa31d_story.html">President Joe Biden said so</a> – that the U.S. was unwilling to commit its own troops in combat against the nuclear-armed foe.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2021C50/">Putin saw</a> the hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 as a sign that the U.S. has lost its appetite for military intervention overseas. The U.S. relies on economic sanctions to pressure adversaries such as Iran, Russia and China. But Putin was confident that Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas would prevent it from imposing serious sanctions on Russia. He was also emboldened by the lackluster Western response to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Little-War-That-Shook-World/dp/0230617735">Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/russias-response-to-sanctions/EBC2355170FF2F318FE75AE1859D3B19">annexation of Crimea in 2014</a>.</p>
<p>It turned out that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-cuts-addiction-to-russian-energy-yet-fuel-scramble-continues-11675421544">Putin was wrong</a> about Europeans’ unwillingness to stop buying Russian energy. But he was right about the U.S. aversion to committing its own forces to defend Ukraine.</p>
<p>As with Ukraine, U.S. policy regarding Taiwan is built around <a href="https://www.hudson.org/events/requiem-dominance-new-us-strategies-deter-aggression">using the threat of economic sanctions</a> to deter China from attacking the province. However, there is also the possibility – absent in Ukraine – that the U.S. would commit its forces to defend Taiwan. The official U.S. policy is one of “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/05/25/biden-taiwan-strategic-ambiguity/">strategic ambiguity</a>” on Taiwan. Furthermore, there is the simple geographical fact that Taiwan is an island, and thus easier to defend than Ukraine.</p>
<p>For the people of Taiwan, Putin’s invasion shows that an authoritarian leader can wage war at any time, for no good reason. Ukraine has so far managed to prevent a Russian victory, but it is paying a heavy price in terms of <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/07/12/riddle-this-how-many-casualties-are-there-truly-on-both-sides-of-ukraine-war/">lost lives</a> and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-how-the-economy-has-kept-running-at-a-time-of-bitter-conflict-195312">shattered economy</a>. According to <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/05/04/the-real-lesson-of-the-war-in-ukraine-for-taiwan">some Taiwanese observers</a>, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price to preserve its political autonomy.</p>
<p>There is also the concern that the U.S. is so tied up with the Ukraine crisis that it does not have the political bandwidth to deal with Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Arms that could have been sold to Taiwan have been <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-running-out-weapons-send-ukraine">sent to Ukraine</a>. Xi may see this as an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Ukraine-crisis-a-gift-for-China-that-keeps-on-giving">opportunity that he can exploit</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Protesters hold Chinese flags and banners supporting One China policy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542633/original/file-20230814-23-kdc1v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese residents in Portugal protest U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Pelosi visited despite Beijing’s objection to all official contact between Taipei and Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/demonstrators-hold-chinese-flags-and-stand-behind-banners-news-photo/1417048089">Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Factors that make war less likely</h2>
<p>There are, however, several factors that make conflict over Taiwan less probable. Russia’s failure to achieve victory in Ukraine makes it less likely that Xi would gamble on the use of military force to occupy Taiwan.</p>
<p>The Wall Street Journal’s <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-war-in-ukraine-may-not-deter-china-bc8aae89">Yaroslav Trofimov argues</a> that “the Ukrainian war has focused minds in Beijing on the inherent unpredictability of a military conflict.” Meanwhile, Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s representative in the U.S., has said that Ukraine’s success in defending itself <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/us/politics/taiwan-ambassador-ukraine-china.html">will deter China</a> from attacking Taiwan.</p>
<p>One reason is advances in weaponry. The latest generation of drones and missiles capable of destroying aircraft, ships and tanks <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine">favors the defense</a>. This makes invasion of Taiwan more risky for China. Moreover, Russia’s weapons seem to be <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-military-equipment-losses/31847839.html">generally less effective</a> than those of its NATO counterparts – and China’s arsenal relies heavily on Russian designs.</p>
<p>Also, the Ukraine war has <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine/">unified European allies</a> behind U.S. leadership. In 2019, French President Emanuel Macron was talking about <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead">NATO being “brain dead</a>.” After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the alliance <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/world-military-expenditure-reaches-new-record-high-european-spending-surges">stepped up defense spending</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61397478">both Sweden and Finland</a> applied for membership. Finland officially joined NATO in April 2023 while Sweden awaits final ratification.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/06/08/poll-majority-of-europeans-support-neutrality-in-us-china-conflict-over-taiwan/">European Union was previously reluctant</a> to join the U.S. trade war with China. However, China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made Brussels more willing to join the U.S. in pushing back against China’s efforts to dominate key sectors of global trade. EU Commission President <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2063">Ursula van der Leyen said</a> in March 2023 that “China is becoming more repressive at home and more assertive abroad.” China is all too aware that overstepping in Taiwan would further unite nations in a trade war against Beijing.</p>
<p>The Ukraine war has also unified core Asian allies behind U.S. leadership. Taiwan, Japan and South Korea <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/03/ukraine-asia-sanctions/">joined the sanctions</a> on Russia, and Japan plans to <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/making-japans-defence-spending-sustainable/">increase defense spending by 60%</a> by 2027. In March 2022, <a href="https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4465554">Russia added Taiwan</a> to its Unfriendly Countries and Territories List, and in August 2022 <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/09/18/2003785519">Taiwan canceled visa-free travel</a> for Russians, which had been introduced in 2018.</p>
<p>It is difficult to assess how sanctions on Russia affect China’s decision calculus. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-putin-has-shrugged-off-unprecedented-economic-sanctions-over-russias-war-in-ukraine-for-now-199718">sanctions have seriously hurt</a> Russia’s economy, but have not prevented the country from waging the war. Given China’s high level of trade with Europe and the U.S., it is likely that sanctions leveled in retaliation for an attack on Taiwan would be severely damaging for the Chinese economy.</p>
<p>In launching the abortive war on Ukraine, Russia has shown itself to be weak and unstable, and therefore less useful as an ally to China. Besides the initial failure to take Kyiv, developments such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/wagners-mutiny-punctured-putins-strongman-image-and-exposed-cracks-in-his-rule-208430">the Wagner mutiny</a> illustrate the fragility of the Putin regime and must have <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-beijings-muted-response-to-wagner-mutiny-tells-us-about-china-russia-relations-and-what-it-doesnt-208700">rung alarm bells in Beijing</a>. In November 2022, Xi called for an <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-jinping-warns-vladimir-putin-not-to-use-nuclear-arms-in-ukraine-olaf-scholz-germany-peace-talks/">end to threats to use nuclear weapons</a> in an implicit rebuke to Russia.</p>
<p>The peace plan that China released in February 2023, “<a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html">Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis</a>,” insisted on the importance of respecting sovereignty while ignoring Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. It was arguably more about Taiwan than Ukraine.</p>
<p>China seemingly wants to see an end to the Ukraine war, but on terms acceptable to its ally, Moscow. China has accepted Russia’s narrative that NATO is to blame for the war, but still pays lip service to the importance of respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Those principles are central to the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter">“One China” policy</a> and Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan. China’s failure to condemn the Russian invasion puts it in a position that is riven with contradictions and makes it hard to play a role as a broker for peace. </p>
<p>There is no simple answer to the question of how the war in Ukraine has impacted Beijing’s intentions regarding Taiwan. But it has starkly illustrated to all sides that the stakes are high, and the costs of miscalculation are punitive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Rutland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Foreign policy experts are divided on whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes it more or less likely that China will launch a similar attack on Taiwan. Here are the arguments on both sides.Peter Rutland, Professor of Government, Wesleyan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042672023-04-24T06:52:22Z2023-04-24T06:52:22ZThe much-anticipated defence review is here. So what does it say, and what does it mean for Australia?<p>The Albanese government on Monday released a declassified version of the much-anticipated <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/defence-strategic-review">defence strategic review</a>, authored by former defence chief Angus Houston and former defence minister Stephen Smith.</p>
<p>The report looks at Australia’s defence equipment and resourcing, but it also looks beyond just acquisitions.</p>
<p>So what’s in the report? What were some of the political drivers of the decisions taken, and what does it tell us about Australian defence strategy in the mid-2020s?</p>
<h2>Increasing risks</h2>
<p>The review builds on the <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/about/strategic-planning/2020-defence-strategic-update">Defence Strategic Update of 2020</a>, which stressed the time we’d have to prepare for a potential conflict is reducing.</p>
<p>It highlights a shift from describing the defence of Australia in narrow, conventional military terms to a broader approach that requires a “whole-of-nation effort”.</p>
<p>It describes Australia’s strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific as one that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>faces increasing competition that operates on multiple levels – economic, military, strategic and diplomatic – all interwoven and all framed by an intense contest of values and narratives.</p>
<p>A large-scale conventional and non-conventional military build-up without strategic reassurance is contributing to the most challenging circumstances in our region for decades.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It adds that “the risks of military escalation or miscalculation are rising”.</p>
<p>It mentions that climate change complicates our challenges further. It also notes that “economic coercion” and “other actions that fall short of kinetic conflict” are impinging upon the ability of “countries to exercise their own agency and decide their own destinies”. </p>
<p>In response, the paper declares “we must sharpen our focus on what our interests are, and how to uphold them”. It focuses on the need for Australia to develop long-range strike capabilities, notably with longer-range missiles (it says we’re in the “missile age”) and advanced nuclear-powered submarines.</p>
<p>The ADF has long focused on maintaining a “balanced force” for three concentric circles: defending the continent, regional engagement, and contributions further afield as a “good global citizen”. </p>
<p>But the focus in this review shifts. It emphasises what it calls a “focused force”, with five tasks: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>defence of the nation</p></li>
<li><p>deterrence through denial (that is, deterring adversaries by reducing any possible benefits of engaging in an attack)</p></li>
<li><p>protection of economic connections</p></li>
<li><p>working with regional partners </p></li>
<li><p>and supporting the so-called rules based global order.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Four of these five tasks involve acting well beyond Australia’s shores. That’s a significant shift. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1635758223511699458"}"></div></p>
<h2>6 priorities going forward</h2>
<p>The report lists six priorities, and 62 recommendations, for defence acquisitions. </p>
<p>The first priority is acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, of which Australia already has a plan following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/aukus-submarine-plan-will-be-the-biggest-defence-scheme-in-australian-history-so-how-will-it-work-199492">AUKUS announcement in March</a>. The government recognises conventional diesel-electric submarines are now vulnerable to detection, due to advances in surveillance. Nuclear-powered subs are less likely to be spotted as they don’t have to come up for a “snort” to refuel.</p>
<p>Second is improving our precision strike capability. Guided weapons and explosives are in short supply, in part thanks to the war in Ukraine, but also because we’ve tended not to develop large stockpiles. The government also plans to invest in developing the ability to manufacture advanced munitions onshore, especially long-range guided weapons. Officials privately advise that they expect we will produce licensed versions of United States’-sourced weapons systems to equip the ADF.</p>
<p>The third priority is about supporting the second pillar of the AUKUS (the first pillar is the submarines). This focuses on acceleration of technology such as artificial intelligence, hypersonics, and longer-range precision guided munitions.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1638301318161870848"}"></div></p>
<p>Fourth is the redevelopment of Australia’s northern bases, from Cocos (Keeling) Islands ranging to the air bases and other defence infrastructure across northern Australia.</p>
<p>Fifth is investment in recruitment and retention of ADF personnel. The previous federal government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-10/defence-workforce-growing-2040-national-security/100896902">projected a nearly 20,000 increase in uniformed defence personnel</a>. The current government committed to follow through on that, with an increase of 5% per year, but there was little to show for any further surge.</p>
<p>Sixth is an emphasis on improving relations with the region, with a particular focus on Pacific Island nations.</p>
<h2>Significant adjustments</h2>
<p>The review does not abandon the army. But it significantly cuts back its planned acquisition of infantry fighting vehicles intended to replace its Vietnam War-era armoured personnel carriers. It reduces the planned acquisition from 450 to 129 vehicles.</p>
<p>What’s more, the review says Australia must cancel the planned acquisition of addition mobile (or “self-propelled”) artillery. It advocates for weapons with a longer range instead, such as “HIMARS” (high mobility artillery rocket systems), which is currently being used by Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. </p>
<p>So the army will need to make some significant adjustments.</p>
<p>The report also calls for a review into the navy surface combat fleet. Australia has been planning to construct 12 offshore patrol vessels and nine Hunter-class frigates for the coming years, but there’s expectations both numbers will be rejigged. The challenge is to get this smaller naval review done quickly. Australia’s naval shipbuilding capability atrophies quickly if left dormant and delays have already seen the naval shipbuilding industry under stress.</p>
<p>The thinking now is not just about air, land and sea forces, but also cyber and space. The report emphasises a robust cyber capability. The Australian Signals Directorate’s cyber program, called REDSPICE, is part of the mix.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/paul-keating-lashes-albanese-government-over-aukus-calling-it-labors-biggest-failure-since-ww1-201866">Paul Keating lashes Albanese government over AUKUS, calling it Labor's biggest failure since WW1</a>
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<p>The review is largely internally coherent, but there’s a dissonance between the rhetoric and the substance – noting the absence of substantial additional resource allocation. Perhaps this reflects the political headwinds faced by the Albanese government.</p>
<p>With the left wing of the ALP spooked by former Prime Minister Paul Keating’s aggressive teardown of AUKUS and defence policy writ large, coupled with calls for great expenditure on health, education and welfare, the government is reluctant to spell out how the increases in budget forecast in the review will come to fruition.</p>
<p>But it seems clear the Albanese cabinet has an acute appreciation of the security challenges butting up against the mood of a more sanguine political base.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Blaxland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘The risks of military escalation or miscalculation are rising’, according to the long-awaited report.John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021232023-03-21T19:12:28Z2023-03-21T19:12:28ZWhy is Australia buying hundreds of missiles?<p>Flying under the radar of last week’s AUKUS submarine announcement was the revelation that the United States had agreed to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-17/tomahawk-guided-missile-us-sale-to-australia-approved/102109084">sell Australia up to 220 Tomahawk cruise missiles</a>.</p>
<p>This follows Australia’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/05/australian-defence-force-to-spend-1bn-acquiring-naval-strike-missiles-and-army-rocket-systems">purchase in January</a> of “high mobility artillery rocket systems”, known as HIMARS, which have been used by Ukraine on the battlefield in response to Russia’s invasion.</p>
<p>And in 2020, the US approved the sale of <a href="https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/australia-long-range-anti-ship-missiles-lrasms#:%7E:text=This%20is%20Australia's%20first%20purchase,Lockheed%20Martin%2C%20Orlando%2C%20Florida.">up to 200 long-range anti-shipping missiles</a> (LRASM) to Australia.</p>
<p>But what are these missiles, and what purpose do they serve?</p>
<p>Do they contribute to an evolving arms race within the Indo-Pacific?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/aukus-submarine-plan-will-be-the-biggest-defence-scheme-in-australian-history-so-how-will-it-work-199492">AUKUS submarine plan will be the biggest defence scheme in Australian history. So how will it work?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are these missiles?</h2>
<p><strong>Tomahawks</strong></p>
<p>Tomahawks are long range, subsonic (that is, slower than the speed of sound) cruise missiles. They’re designed to strike targets on land at long-range, <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/12/14/the-us-navy-has-an-upgraded-tomahawk-heres-5-things-you-should-know/">around 1,600km</a>.</p>
<p>Newer Tomahawk variants, such as those being purchased by Australia, can also <a href="https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/naval-warfare/advanced-strike-weapons/tomahawk-cruise-missile">strike moving targets at sea</a>. These missiles have been used in combat over <a href="https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/naval-warfare/advanced-strike-weapons/tomahawk-cruise-missile">2,300 times</a>.</p>
<p>They will be deployed on three Australian warships, known as <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/australia-cleared-to-gain-tomahawk-cruise-missile-capability">Hobart class destroyers</a>. These ships are primarily designed to defend the navy from aerial threats such as aircraft and missiles, but adding Tomahawks would allow them to strike targets on land or sea.</p>
<p>What’s more, the Virginia class nuclear-powered submarines Australia is purchasing from the US under the AUKUS agreement are also capable of launching Tomahawks. It’s safe to assume Australia’s future AUKUS class nuclear-powered submarines will also be able to deploy Tomahawks.</p>
<p>This would provide Australia with a potent deterrent. It would mean Australia could conduct long-range precision strikes against potential adversaries, using a stealthy platform that would be extremely difficult to detect.</p>
<p><strong>LRASM</strong></p>
<p>Australia’s purchase of long range anti-shipping missiles (LRASM) is intended to increase the strike range of two types of Australia’s fighter jets. This would allow Australia to accurately strike hostile shipping at long range.</p>
<p>They will replace Australia’s ageing Harpoon anti-shipping missile. They have a range of about 560km, which is approximately <a href="https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/10/05/lockheed-anti-ship-missile-himars/">four times greater than the Harpoon</a>.</p>
<p>This capability is highly desirable given that, in the event of a regional conflict, the greatest threat to Australia is a blockade of its key trade routes.</p>
<p><strong>HIMARS</strong></p>
<p>Unlike the two missiles discussed above, high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) are artillery systems for battlefield use. They use rockets instead of shells.</p>
<p>The advantage of rocket artillery such as HIMARS is threefold:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>It can provide greater range than “conventional” artillery, which generally speaking maxes out around <a href="https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/06/16/new-army-artillery-doubles-attack-range-outguns-russian-equivalent.html">20-30km</a>. It can strike targets ranging from 70km-300km away from the launch point, depending on the munition used.</p></li>
<li><p>It’s precise, minimising collateral damage.</p></li>
<li><p>It’s highly mobile. Troops can quickly fire its munitions, and then promptly relocate, which decreases an opponent’s ability to hit it with counterfire.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Why does Australia need them?</h2>
<p>Australia has had a gap in long-range strike capabilities, arguably since it retired the F-111 long range strike aircraft in 2010.</p>
<p>The F-111 could fly <a href="https://www.boeing.com.au/resources/en-au/pdf/RAAF-100-Years/F-111-PC.pdf">up to about 6,000km</a>, but the aircraft brought in to replace the F-111 have significantly lower ranges. The F/A-18F has a range of <a href="https://www.airforce.gov.au/aircraft/18f-super-hornet">2,700km</a>, while the F-35A is even worse off, with a range of only <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/projecting-power-with-the-f-35-part-1-how-far-can-it-go/">2,200km</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, these are the ranges aircraft can fly in a non-combat environment (for example, cruising in a straight line). Their range is far lower in a combat scenario.</p>
<p>So the addition of long range, precision strike missiles allow these platforms to pack greater punch at longer distances.</p>
<p>In particular, the Tomahawks and LRASM allow aircraft and warships to launch the missiles further from potential danger. This is particularly important as countries such as China are heavily investing in military systems <a href="https://www.thedefencehorizon.org/post/china-a2ad-strategy">designed to prevent access</a> and freedom of operation in contested waters such as the South China Sea, a strategy referred to as Anti-Access/Area Denial, or “A2AD”.</p>
<p>Crucially, these missiles (within the broader context of other defence procurements) offer Australia two things. Firstly, they provide an increased deterrent in an increasingly turbulent region.</p>
<p>If Australia can hold key targets under threat, then a potential adversary is less likely to undertake a hostile action, or at the very least think more carefully before doing so.</p>
<p>It also facilitates what’s called “interoperability” with key allies such as the US, so Australian and US forces can operate more easily in a joint manner if need be.</p>
<p>Secondly, these platforms allow Australia to have our own “A2AD” capabilities. While an invasion of Australia is extraordinarily unlikely, it’s possible an adversary may try to block shipping routes to prevent our people and/or goods from free navigation (a naval blockade). Or, they may attempt to close strategic chokepoints and navigation routes to Australia’s north, such as the Malacca Strait.</p>
<p>Having the ability to strike targets at long range holds those undertaking such actions under threat, increasing the difficulty in sustaining a blockade, or making it unappealing to attempt to do so due to high potential costs.</p>
<p>Of course, these systems also come with significant costs. The purchase of approximately 220 Tomahawks will cost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-17/tomahawk-guided-missile-us-sale-to-australia-approved/102109084">A$1.3 billion</a>, while 20 HIMARS launchers and missiles attracts a bill of <a href="https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/joint/australia-purchases-himars">$558 million</a>. About 200 LRASMs costs a further <a href="https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/strike-air-combat/5557-us-approves-multi-million-australian-lrasm-acquisition-request">$1.47 billion</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-military-might-is-much-closer-to-the-us-than-you-probably-think-124487">China's military might is much closer to the US than you probably think</a>
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<h2>Contributing to an arms race?</h2>
<p>There is a question about whether these purchases contribute to a regional arms race. There’s no doubt China is rapidly building its military capabilities, and this is making other countries in the region apprehensive about the long-term purpose of such an arms build-up.</p>
<p>Even if China held no hostile intentions within the region, it’s prudent for states such as Australia to be able to defend themselves and their interests, just in case.</p>
<p>While many are decrying the enormous outlay for submarine procurement under AUKUS, and others are criticising Australia for being subservient to US interests or “warmongering”, the reality is that all states maintain offensive and defensive capabilities just in case the worst happens. In other words, we hope for the best, but plan for the worst. </p>
<p>Deterrence is a foundational concept of international relations, and these purchases are Australia maintaining its ability to deter potential adversaries. It’s not about warmongering, but about being ready just in case the worst occurs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Dwyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One key reason is to provide an increased deterrent in an increasingly turbulent region.James Dwyer, Associate Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1980902023-01-19T06:11:41Z2023-01-19T06:11:41ZOffshore wind farm construction is noisy – but gadgets used to protect marine mammals are working<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505122/original/file-20230118-22-euadqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4595%2C3061&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Harbour porpoises are the most common toothed whale in the turbine-rich North Sea.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/harbour-porpoise-phocoena-2137783321">Onutancu/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/renewable-energy/offshore-renewable-energy_en#:%7E:text=The%20deployment%20of%20offshore%20wind,the%205%20EU%20sea%20basins.">The European Union</a> had 14.6 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind energy installed in 2021, and this is projected to increase by at least 25 times in the next ten years. While an expanding renewable energy sector is necessary to replace fossil fuels and slow climate change, it must not come at a cost to <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/biodiversity-486">Earth’s embattled wildlife</a>. </p>
<p>To date, most offshore wind turbines have been built using fixed foundations, typically steel piles that are driven into the seabed with hydraulic hammers – often very large ones. The noise that pile-driving generates can be heard tens of kilometres from the source as short and sharp concussions like gunfire.</p>
<p>Sound travels much more efficiently in water than in air. Marine mammals like whales and porpoises use it to communicate over long distances, sense the environment and locate prey. This dependence on sound makes marine mammals <a href="https://doi.org/10.1644/07-MAMM-S-307R.1">particularly vulnerable</a> to the effects of man-made noise, including the noisy construction of offshore wind farms. Pile-driving can deafen, injure or even kill marine mammals at close range.</p>
<p>The harbour porpoise is the smallest and <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.606609">most common</a> species of cetacean in the North Sea, where EU countries hope to generate <a href="https://windeurope.org/policy/joint-statements/the-esbjerg-offshore-wind-declaration/">150 GW</a> of offshore wind energy by 2050. Like bats, these relatives of whales and dolphins emit clicks to echolocate almost continuously. This helps them find and identify objects, including food. Acoustic deterrents, small devices which emit pulses of sound, are used to scare marine mammals away from where wind farms are being built to protect them from the noise generated by pile-driving. Until recently though, no one was sure how well these deterrents worked.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The dorsal fins and backs of two harbour porpoises emerging from the water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505126/original/file-20230118-14-1r7n63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505126/original/file-20230118-14-1r7n63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505126/original/file-20230118-14-1r7n63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505126/original/file-20230118-14-1r7n63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505126/original/file-20230118-14-1r7n63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505126/original/file-20230118-14-1r7n63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505126/original/file-20230118-14-1r7n63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harbour porpoises, as the name suggests, are found in coastal waters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Aberdeen</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My colleagues at the University of Aberdeen’s Lighthouse Field Station and the University of St. Andrews’ Sea Mammal Research Unit developed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2022.0101">a portable acoustic recorder</a> which can detect the movements of harbour porpoises. Using an array of these recorders during pile-driving at an offshore wind farm in north-east Scotland, we showed that acoustic deterrents work – porpoises swim directly away from the pulses of sound, ameliorating the most severe impacts of construction at sea. </p>
<h2>Fighting noise with noise</h2>
<p>A range of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9080819">measures</a> have been deployed to minimise the harm from offshore wind farm construction. Acoustic deterrent devices, which are switched on before pile-driving begins, are supposed to empty the sea of marine mammals tens to hundreds of metres around the construction site, where the noise is expected to be most damaging. These <a href="https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10482">electronic devices</a> were originally developed for use in the aquaculture industry to deter seals from fish farms.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wind turbine on a yellow platform in the ocean." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505128/original/file-20230118-22-rpeyaq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505128/original/file-20230118-22-rpeyaq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505128/original/file-20230118-22-rpeyaq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505128/original/file-20230118-22-rpeyaq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505128/original/file-20230118-22-rpeyaq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505128/original/file-20230118-22-rpeyaq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505128/original/file-20230118-22-rpeyaq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Offshore wind turbine foundations are driven into the seabed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Aberdeen</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite <a href="https://doi.org/10.3354/MEPS10100">experimental trials</a>, there is limited evidence to show how well acoustic deterrents work during construction. This is, at least in part, due to the difficulties of working in the marine environment, but also because of the challenges involved in studying animals that are highly mobile, relatively rare and live most of their lives underwater and out of sight. These factors make it very hard to observe how marine mammals react to particular noises or disturbances. Fortunately, we were able to turn the dependence of harbour porpoises on sound to our advantage.</p>
<p>Recent advances in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229058">passive acoustic monitoring</a> meant that we could use a sound recorder connected to a small cluster of underwater microphones, called hydrophones, to study porpoise movements. By measuring tiny differences in the time of arrival of porpoise echolocation clicks at the four hydrophones, we identified the direction from which they were echolocating. The harbour porpoise’s echolocation beam is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1121/10.0001376">narrow and forward-facing</a>, and so from these findings, we were able to determine the direction in which they were swimming.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A drum covered in electronic devices is lowered over the side of a boat into the ocean." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505120/original/file-20230118-20-8vvg3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505120/original/file-20230118-20-8vvg3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505120/original/file-20230118-20-8vvg3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505120/original/file-20230118-20-8vvg3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505120/original/file-20230118-20-8vvg3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505120/original/file-20230118-20-8vvg3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505120/original/file-20230118-20-8vvg3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A hydrophone cluster being deployed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Aberdeen</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that when acoustic deterrents were in use, the clicks of harbour porpoises we detected indicated they were swimming directly away from the construction site. This proves that acoustic deterrent devices can make offshore wind farm construction safer. </p>
<p>We did detect responses among harbour porpoises up to 7 km from the construction site, suggesting that these deterrent devices may be almost too good at their job. Such a long-distance effect could displace animals from important feeding sites and highlights the importance of a balance between preventing injuries and minimising disturbance.</p>
<p>Our portable acoustic recorder can now improve protection for marine mammals by more accurately determining how they respond to disturbance across a wide range of habitats. It will also allow researchers to gauge the effectiveness of measures used to minimise disturbance during wind farm construction or other activities, including animal deterrents and systems for reducing the noise produced by piling at construction sites.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isla Graham received funding from Moray Offshore Wind Farm (East) Ltd. The funding body had no input in data collection, data analysis or interpretation. The aims, scope and experimental design of the study were developed by the authors to meet Moray Offshore Wind Farm (East) Ltd planning consent conditions. These were agreed by the regulator Marine Scotland Licensing and Operations Team following consultation with statutory advisors represented on the Moray Firth Regional Advisory Group (MFRAG), a stakeholder group that was established by the Scottish government to oversee the monitoring programme.</span></em></p>A new acoustic recorder could track the movements of marine mammals more accurately.Isla Graham, Research Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976492023-01-16T06:05:39Z2023-01-16T06:05:39ZWhat’s next for the anti-Nato left after Ukraine?<p>When Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, much of the political left across the western world were faced with a <a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/12/15/the-left-and-ukraine/">dilemma</a>. Unlike in 2003 – when US oil interests seemed to explain the invasion of Iraq all too neatly – this time it was much more difficult to put a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEZP_RzT2Dk">Marxist spin</a> on things. </p>
<p>The left, sections of which have <a href="https://fpif.org/russia-ukraine-nato-and-the-left/">traditionally been critical</a> of the US-led Nato alliance, was presented with an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-war-in-ukraine-a-no-win-situation-for-the-left-185564">unpalatable choice</a>: either to back a state propped up by Nato, the world’s most powerful military alliance, or to end up excusing a war of aggression. </p>
<p>The tension was in effect resolved by a split. A <a href="https://fpif.org/russia-ukraine-nato-and-the-left/">small group</a>, including the influential socialist commentator Noam Chomsky and the Marxist theorist David Harvey, continued to argue that the invasion of Ukraine was ultimately the fault of Nato for pursuing expansion into eastern Europe. In doing so, they sided with the so-called realists who had long urged the west to respect Russia’s “legitimate” <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24483306">sphere of influence.</a></p>
<p>But many other commentators on the left pledged allegiance to a newly empowered liberalism which understandably read the war as a struggle between Russian imperialism and Ukrainian self-determination. In doing so – and this is the surprising bit – many who had previously been critical of Nato (the Guardian’s columnist George Monbiot, for example) <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/02/russian-propaganda-anti-imperialist-left-vladimir-putin">ditched a long-held suspicion</a> of the Atlantic alliance. </p>
<p>Among a new coalition of liberal left Atlanticists, one soon heard <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/german-foreign-minister-annalena-baerbock-calls-for-heavy-weapons-for-ukraine/">calls for heavy weapons</a> and forms of direct military involvement. The aim was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/wanted-russian-revolution-to-topple-tyrant-putin-internal-applicants-welcome">regime change</a> in the Kremlin. Here, Nato’s expansion to the former Soviet satellites and the <a href="https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/04-april/e0403h.html">2008 membership promise to Ukraine and Georgia</a> appeared merely as Russia’s <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/02/the-left-must-stand-with-ukraine-against-putins-aggression">pretext</a> for imperial aggression.</p>
<p>Both positions have weaknesses. Realists see Ukraine only as a proxy war, liberals only as a war of liberation. </p>
<p>Veering towards <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/moral-relativism/">moral relativism</a>, realists over-confidently project a 19th-century conception of statecraft onto the present, treating the balance of power as a natural equilibrium rather than an institution that depends on the powerful trampling on the powerless. Liberals often struggle to see that Washington has long shared Russia’s <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Grand_Chessboard/ealVDgAAQBAJ">interest in</a> Ukraine as a geopolitical swing state.</p>
<p>Morally, one side wants to trade territory for peace with a ruthless and untrustworthy dictator, while the other is willing to sacrifice Ukrainian civilians, soldiers and infrastructure to ensure Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Crucially, both camps have quite different assessments of the merits of deterrence. </p>
<p>Whether under Putin or his successor, the Kremlin can still escalate further. It can ramp up mobilisation or release untapped parts of its conventional arsenal. Or it can employ nuclear weapons with varying yields. Liberals have consistently downplayed the chances of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use, whilst realists warn of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine">imminent nuclear escalation</a>.</p>
<p>On the decisive issue of deterrence, the left has long been sceptical. As British Marxist historian E.P. Thompson argued in his <a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v04/n12/jeff-mcmahan/the-end-of-the-future">1982 Zero Option</a>, deterrence had only emerged in the 1950s as a post-facto legitimatisation for the development and use of nuclear weapons. For Thompson, it was as an ideological lubricant for the arms race rather than a serious scientific theory – let alone sound policy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man dressed in a raincoat stands at a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504193/original/file-20230112-43582-u54yti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504193/original/file-20230112-43582-u54yti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504193/original/file-20230112-43582-u54yti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504193/original/file-20230112-43582-u54yti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504193/original/file-20230112-43582-u54yti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504193/original/file-20230112-43582-u54yti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504193/original/file-20230112-43582-u54yti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deterrence was dreamed up to justify nuclear proliferation according to Marxist historian, EP Thomson.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CND</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2022, the world might have edged closer to Thompson’s nightmare scenario: an unchecked political leader who fears for his regime on the one side, and an Atlantic alliance pursuing maximalist war aims on the other. </p>
<p>And yet events on the ground – particularly the extent of the Russian war crimes and the astonishing weakness of its armed forces – have helped the cause of those who favour military support for Ukraine. </p>
<p>Russia may not have responded to the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson with nuclear weapons. But none of this means that the spectre of nuclear escalation has been banished. It is likely to return if there is more bad news for Moscow on the battlefield, causing more cracks in Putin’s regime to appear.</p>
<h2>What’s ‘left’ after Ukraine?</h2>
<p>Most of the questions discussed by the left today are of the following sort: when did Putin’s Russia slide decisively into fascism – if that’s what has happened? To what degree did Nato enlargement lay the groundwork for an increasingly aggressive Russia – or doesn’t this very question excuse Russian imperialism? </p>
<p>The issue of nuclear escalation is different. Yes, tactical nuclear weapons come in different shapes and sizes – they can be detonated over military installations, civilian targets or over the sea. But ultimately the question is refreshingly binary: does Russia cross the nuclear threshold or doesn’t it? </p>
<p>If Russia does resort to nuclear weapons, it would back the argument of those who are wary of arming Ukraine. Strategists have pointed out that the use of nuclear weapons would be <a href="https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear">unlikely to bring significant advantages</a> to the Russian war effort. This is something to hold on to. But ultimately one can <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/">only speculate</a> on how such a “limited” nuclear war might unfold after a Russian first use. </p>
<p>If Russia does not employ nuclear weapons, either because the Putin regime survives a defeat, implodes peacefully or because its fortunes on the battlefield improve dramatically (neither seem particularly likely at this point), the liberal left would prove triumphant on this issue. </p>
<p>Alongside Hiroshima and Cuba, a third case will have been added to the repertoire of nuclear history. It will probably be used to demonstrate one thing only – that even an unchecked leader of a nuclear power with his back to the wall will choose not to use them. </p>
<p>This would have an unsettling implication. For if nuclear weapons simply cannot be used, whatever the context, then what would deter nuclear-armed powers from resolving conflicts among themselves via conventional military means?</p>
<p>It is clear that the ultimate verdict on the extent of Nato’s military aid (too little or too much?) depends on what happens next on the battlefield. But the question of whether Atlanticism is a natural home for a left-wing politics has yet to be decided.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Klinke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The left was split over whether Nato expansion had prompted the Ukraine invasion or whether it was an act of imperial aggression that must be opposed.Ian Klinke, Associate professor in human geography, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1870612022-07-18T20:06:28Z2022-07-18T20:06:28ZWhy China’s challenges to Australian ships in the South and East China Seas are likely to continue<p>Last week it was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-13/australian-defence-warship-tracked-by-chinese-military/101229906">reported</a> an Australian warship had, in early July, been closely followed by a Chinese guided-missile destroyer, a nuclear-powered attack submarine, and multiple military aircraft as it travelled through the East China Sea.</p>
<p>This incident followed a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/chinese-fighter-jet-intercepts-australian-surveillance-aircraft-south-china-sea/e99a9d3e-8453-4f1d-ae01-130e6681d8f8">confrontation</a> on May 26, when an Australian maritime surveillance plane was dangerously intercepted by a Chinese fighter over the South China Sea.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-05/australian-government-wont-be-intimidated-in-south-china-sea/101127204">Reportedly</a>, the Chinese fighter flew treacherously close to the Australian plane, releasing flares, before cutting across its path and dropping chaff (a cloud of aluminium fibre used as a decoy against radar).</p>
<p>While there are good reasons not to exaggerate these events, the bad news is these incidents are almost certain to continue. When they do occur, it’s important to place them within their broader historical and geopolitical context and not sensationalise them – we must not frame them as if we’re on the brink of war.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1546978011446378496"}"></div></p>
<h2>The good news: 3 reasons not to panic</h2>
<p>There are three reasons why the significance of these events shouldn’t be exaggerated. </p>
<p>First, Asia’s seas are among the world’s busiest. The warships of different navies are constantly operating in close proximity with each other and most of these interactions are professional and even courteous. This includes most encounters with the Chinese navy.</p>
<p>A second, and related, point is that both the Chinese and Australian navies have grown significantly in size over the past decade. More ships means more total days at sea, which means more opportunities for the navies to come into contact.</p>
<p>Most of these encounters are innocuous. In our research on <a href="https://www.navy.gov.au/media-room/publications/soundings-papers-indo-pacific-endeavour-reflections-and-proposals-australias-premier-naval-diplomacy-activity">Australia’s naval diplomacy</a>, for instance, the team at Macquarie University investigated <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-09/chinese-spy-ship-docks-next-to-hmas-adelaide-in-fiji/9852748">reports</a> a Chinese ship had spied on HMAS Adelaide visiting Fiji.</p>
<p>The reality, however, was the Chinese ship was deployed semi-permanently to the South Pacific as a satellite relay and regularly came in-and-out of Suva (Fiji’s capital) for supplies. It was nothing more than a chance run-in.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1288217291285397505"}"></div></p>
<p>Third, although confrontations aren’t common, they are also far from unprecedented. During the Cold War, the warships of the United States and the Soviet Union frequently sparred. Few forward deployments occurred without some contact with the opposing forces that may have included overflights, shadowing or dangerous manoeuvring. </p>
<p>Indeed, potentially dangerous interactions were common enough that in 1972 the Americans and Soviets signed the Incidents at Sea (INCSEA) <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/isn/4791.htm">agreement</a>. The agreement spelt out the “rules of the road”. The superpowers also committed to an annual meeting between their senior naval officers, with the hosting responsibility alternating between them.</p>
<p>The agreement didn’t eliminate incidents at sea, but it did create a mechanism for the two parties to vent their frustrations, voice their protests and work constructively on solutions. As the meetings were between the two nations’ top professional naval officers, there was a <a href="https://www.usni.org/press/books/incidents-sea">high degree of mutual respect</a> and a genuine attempt to make the seas a safer place for their sailors.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/japan-signals-a-sense-of-crisis-over-taiwan-this-is-why-it-is-worried-about-chinas-military-aims-164562">Japan signals a 'sense of crisis' over Taiwan — this is why it is worried about China's military aims</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The bad news: these incidents will continue</h2>
<p>The US attempted to replicate their Soviet agreement with China. In 1998, the US and China <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1999/august/military-maritime-consultative-agreement">agreed</a> to the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement, which copied many of the successful parts of the Soviet agreement, including the annual meeting between their admirals to discuss concerning incidents.</p>
<p>The challenge, however, is that the geopolitical backdrop to the US-China agreement is significantly different from its Cold War antecedent. During the Cold War, tensions at sea rose and fell just as they did on land. However, the areas where the Soviet Union attempted to assert its claims (such as the Sea of Okhotsk and the Barents Sea) were isolated and icy and generally unimportant to everyone except the Soviets. The Americans would prod there occasionally on intelligence gathering, freedom of navigation operations, or simply to rile up their rivals – but on the whole both sides understood the game.</p>
<p>In contrast, China has claimed exclusive coastal territorial sovereignty over the majority of the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and large parts of the East China Sea. These are among the most geopolitically important and busiest waterways in the world.</p>
<p>Beijing’s options for convincing regional states to recognise its claims are limited, especially when foreign navies continue to traverse these waters, dismissively ignoring China’s sovereignty declarations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-if-growing-us-china-rivalry-leads-to-the-worst-war-ever-what-should-australia-do-185294">Friday essay: if growing US-China rivalry leads to 'the worst war ever', what should Australia do?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Beijing has few options</h2>
<p>Politically, China could attempt to horse trade, such as we’ll treat you as the custodians of the South Pacific if you accept our claims to the South China Sea. Or use economic and diplomatic coercion.</p>
<p>In Australia’s case, neither of these strategies are likely to be successful as they would undermine our relationship with the US, and there’s the fear China will renege in the future. </p>
<p>This leaves tactical deterrence. Describing how deterrence works, American economist Thomas Schelling used the <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1007.3938&rep=rep1&type=pdf">analogy</a> of two people in a row boat where one starts “rocking the boat” dangerously, threatening to tip it over unless the other one does all the rowing. The threat is shared equally between them, but the boat rocker is counting on the other to back down because their appetite for risk is lower.</p>
<p>Confrontations in the air and sea are risky for both the perpetrator and the target. On 1 April 2001, for instance, a Chinese fighter <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident">collided</a> with an American signals intelligence aircraft. The American plane was forced to make an emergency landing on Hainan Island, while the Chinese plane crashed and the pilot died.</p>
<p>What China is counting on is Australia not being as risk tolerant as they are. They hope Australia will blink first. But, Australia has shown no indication it will stop deploying to the region. Indeed, the aircraft that was threatened and damaged by chaff on May 26 was one of two Australian aircraft flying out of the Philippines at the time. The Australians were not deterred and the second aircraft appears to have flown missions on <a href="https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/general/details-surface-on-china-s-dangerous-interception-of-raaf-p-8a">May 27, May 30 and June 2</a> through the same airspace as the incident occurred.</p>
<p>As China and Australia have few other options than to continue doing what they’re doing, these incidents look likely to continue.</p>
<p>When they occur, however, it’s important they’re not taken out of their historical and operational contexts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Lockyer receives funding from the Department of Defence through its Strategic Policy Grant Program. The funding supports his ongoing research on conventional maritime deterrence. </span></em></p>While there are good reasons not to exaggerate these events, the bad news is these incidents are almost certain to continue. But we shouldn’t frame them as if we’re in the brink of war.Adam Lockyer, Associate Professor in Strategic Studies, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1522072021-01-12T13:22:28Z2021-01-12T13:22:28ZExecutions don’t deter murder, despite the Trump administration’s push<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375948/original/file-20201218-15-1q1ckxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C1986%2C1488&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The federal death chamber at the U.S. Penitentiary in Terre Haute, Indiana, as seen in April 1995.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Chuck Robinson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Three more federal inmates are <a href="https://www.bop.gov/resources/federal_executions_info.jsp">slated to be executed</a> before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, though the first <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/12/us/lisa-montgomery-execution-stayed/index.html">received a stay</a> hours before she was slated to die on Jan. 12. <a href="https://www.bop.gov/about/history/federal_executions.jsp">Ten have already been put to death</a> since the Trump administration announced in July 2019 that it would <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/federal-government-resume-capital-punishment-after-nearly-two-decade-lapse">resume executions</a> after a 17-year suspension.</p>
<p>It’s not clear why the administration has done so many in such a short time after a long break. Officially it claims to be “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/federal-government-resume-capital-punishment-after-nearly-two-decade-lapse">bringing justice to victims of the most horrific crimes</a>.”</p>
<p>Capital punishment has a long history, which may even <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/530240/the-goodness-paradox-by-richard-wrangham/">extend to prehistoric times</a>, when early humans sought ways to rid their communities of incorrigible troublemakers.</p>
<p>In modern times, governments use what German social theorist Max
Weber called their “<a href="https://open.oregonstate.education/sociologicaltheory/chapter/politics-as-a-vocation/">monopoly on legitimate force</a>” to conduct executions. From my decades as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=l0YWBN8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">psychologist and biologist</a>, I identify four basic justifications governments use for killing their citizens:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2257123">Removing dangerous people</a> from society,</li>
<li>Justice (or revenge), and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780195395143.001.0001">satisfaction it can bring</a> to a victim’s family,</li>
<li><a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199592692.001.0001">Demonstrating the power of the state</a>, and</li>
<li>Deterrence, or <a href="https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/policy-issues/deterrence">discouraging others from committing heinous crimes</a> for fear they too may be executed.</li>
</ul>
<p>Death penalty advocates <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/deterrence-the-legal-threat-in-crime-control/oclc/491789667">most frequently focus on deterrence</a> – but as research including <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/threats-9780190055295">my own work</a> shows, it has not been shown to be effective.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An 18th century scene of an execution in England" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375951/original/file-20201218-21-1eqg3q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A depiction of a public execution in London in 1746.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/execution-on-tower-hill-london-1746-scene-showing-william-news-photo/464489507?adppopup=true">Guildhall Library & Art Gallery/Heritage Images/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A brief history</h2>
<p>By the end of the 18th century, England specified 220 different offenses – mostly thefts of different kinds of property – that were punishable by death. The expressed intent of England’s “<a href="https://www.nationaljusticemuseum.org.uk/what-was-the-bloody-code/">Bloody Code</a>” was deterrence. </p>
<p>“Men are not hanged for stealing horses,” wrote the Marquess of Halifax, a 17th-century British nobleman, “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/complete-works-of-george-savile-first-marquess-of-halifax/oclc/125019">but that horses may not be stolen</a>.” Nevertheless, horses were stolen, and poor people were hanged for stealing them – or a quill pen or a bolt of cloth.</p>
<p>The idea of deterrence lasted another couple hundred years: In the 1970s, economist Isaac Ehrlich claimed that <a href="http://doi.org/10.3386/w0018">every execution saved eight innocent lives</a> by preventing other murders. His hugely influential work has subsequently <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/contradictions-of-american-capital-punishment/oclc/50334054">been challenged</a>, not least because it <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/795412">relied on national trends and did not distinguish</a> between crimes in states that had, or lacked, capital punishment.</p>
<p>In 2020, the U.S. government still has the death penalty on the books for certain crimes, as do 30 states. These laws face ethical and logical criticism, such as the idea of a government killing people to reinforce the idea that people shouldn’t kill people. They also are often <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/wmbrts9&div=12">found to be unjust</a>, sometimes executing innocent people and used disproportionately in cases involving racial minorities and poor people. But most importantly, and, despite what its advocates say, capital punishment doesn’t deter murders.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view of the execution building at the U.S. Penitentiary in Terre Haute, Indiana" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375771/original/file-20201217-19-1tgavjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal executions happen inside this building at the U.S. Penitentiary in Terre Haute, Indiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FederalDeathPenaltyHistoryQA/546165ed8d924397b42e60697dc85c64/photo">AP Photo/Michael Conroy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Research and evidence</h2>
<p>Research has shown that, while there have been changes in murder rates over time, those changes aren’t related to whether a government <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aler/ahp024">has – or doesn’t have – the death penalty</a>. By far the most authoritative report to date came from the National Research Council, an arm of the National Academy of Sciences, in 2012. It found there was <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/13363/chapter/2#2">no credible evidence that capital punishment has any effect on homicide rates</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, there is no ethical way to devise a scientific experiment to test whether capital punishment deters murder. But an impressive array of correlations exists, which together are enough to make a highly credible, informed judgment. For example:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>In 1976, Canada abolished capital punishment and the U.S. restored it. <a href="http://doi.org/10.3386/w11982">Yet Canada’s murder rate remained roughly the same as that of the U.S.</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>Hong Kong and Singapore are two demographically and economically comparable city-states. Hong Kong abolished executions, whereas Singapore did not, yet <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1436993">murder rates have remained remarkably similar</a> in both.</p></li>
<li><p>New York and Texas had comparable murder statistics and execution rates as of 1992. As crime peaked nationally, the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/threats-9780190055295">two states’ responses differed</a>: Texas ramped up its executions, while there were no executions in New York from 1992 to 2003. Their results were different, too: New York’s homicide rate declined by 62.9%, far more than the drop in Texas of 49.6% over those years.</p></li>
<li><p>Manhattan, the Bronx and Brooklyn are broadly similar demographically, and also share the same police force and local and state legal systems. From 1995 to 2004, county prosecutors in Manhattan and the Bronx did not enforce capital punishment, but those in Brooklyn did. <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/threats-9780190055295">Homicides declined in all three boroughs of New York City</a>, consistent with nationwide trends, but the <a href="https://www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/crimereporting/ucr.htm">Manhattan and Bronx declines were significantly greater</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>If the threat of capital punishment were an effective deterrent, then homicides would tend to decline immediately following executions, especially those that received substantial public attention. Yet evidence indicates that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F001112878002600402">executions may actually increase the frequency of murders</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It is tempting to think that severe penalties would effectively reduce crime, with the most extreme penalty – death – reducing the most serious crime, notably murder. But there is simply no compelling evidence that it does.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our most insightful politics and election stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David P. Barash does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The most commonly used justification for capital punishment is not actually supported by evidence.David P. Barash, Professor Emeritus of Psychology, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482792020-10-18T08:59:10Z2020-10-18T08:59:10ZWhy an amnesty for grand corruption in South Africa is a bad idea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363935/original/file-20201016-23-au6zjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thuli Madonsela, professor of law and former Public Protector of South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s former Public Protector, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-south-africas-public-protector-has-set-a-high-bar-for-her-successor-63891">Thuli Madonsela</a>, provoked a political storm recently when she suggested that public servants implicated in grand corruption should be given the chance to apply for <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-10-13-a-chance-to-start-with-a-clean-slate-thuli-madonsela-urges-sa-to-consider-amnesty-for-the-corrupt/">amnesty</a>.</p>
<p>Many South Africans, weary of rampant, unchecked and unaccountable corruption, could be forgiven for asking: what on earth was she thinking?</p>
<p>Madonsela won the admiration of many South Africans because of her steely resolve in the face of malfeasance and breaches of the rules of integrity in public office. Her proposal suggested she might be going soft on corruption.</p>
<p>To be effective as the Public Protector Madonsela required many attributes, as I set out in my 2013 book, <a href="https://www.loot.co.za/product/richard-calland-the-zuma-years/lwlk-1845-g5a0"><em>The Zuma Years</em></a>. These included independence of mind, a very thick skin and a certain contrarian eccentricity that rendered her far less susceptible to the numerous attempts to intimidate her as she took on then president Jacob Zuma and his state capture network.</p>
<p>Her amnesty idea displays all of these characteristics. </p>
<p>It should be taken seriously, if only to affirm the merit of a diametrically opposed position.</p>
<p>It’s an inherently bad idea.</p>
<h2>Bad timing</h2>
<p>Madonsela’s timing is especially unfortunate. It is only in very recent times that <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/dpci/index.php">the Hawks</a>, the priority crimes investigating police unit, and other agencies of the criminal justice system appear to have recovered the institutional capacity to begin prosecuting those responsible for the deep-lying state capture project.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/opposition-parties-welcome-arrests-of-alleged-masterminds-behind-free-state-asbestos-contract-20200930">Recent developments</a> have begun to suggest that the net is finally tightening around the bigger fish that are the true architects of systematic corruption in the country.</p>
<p>This has been widely <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/politics/arrest-of-corruption-suspects-welcomed--sacp">welcomed</a>. Accountability, at last.</p>
<p>Against the grain of this public view, Madonsela, <a href="https://blogs.sun.ac.za/inaugural-lectures/event/prof-thuli-madonsela/">a law professor</a>, entered the fray to suggest that instead of being tough on the perpetrators, an olive branch should be extended.</p>
<p>This is an example of the “independent-mindedness” for which Madonsela was <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-south-africas-public-protector-has-set-a-high-bar-for-her-successor-63891">rightly acclaimed</a> during her seven-year term as Public Protector from 2009-2016.</p>
<p>It is also not only contrarian, but also eccentric in that it makes so little sense. </p>
<p>To be fair to her, she tried to clarify later that she did not mean amnesty for every perpetrator, and certainly not the big fish. Her idea is targeted at those whose “status”, <a href="https://www.702.co.za/podcasts/415/the-john-perlman-show/370859/former-public-protector-prof-thuli-madonsela-calls-for-a-corruption-amnesty-for-public-servants">she says</a>, “in the food chain is quite junior”.</p>
<p>But the first of a series of fatal flaws in her idea is about where to draw the line: on what basis should one distinguish the smaller from the bigger fish?</p>
<p>Those who had played a “minor but critical” role was how she framed her idea. There is already a problem here: is it possible for something to be both “critical” to a (criminal) enterprise and yet still “minor”? </p>
<p>I think not.</p>
<h2>Half-baked idea</h2>
<p>Madonsela confirmed that amnesty should be available on a legal rather than a moral basis. Yet, in a radio <a href="https://www.702.co.za/podcasts/415/the-john-perlman-show/370859/former-public-protector-prof-thuli-madonsela-calls-for-a-corruption-amnesty-for-public-servants">interview</a> after she’d floated the idea, and drawn a lot of flak, she added to the confusion.</p>
<p>At first Madonsela spoke of people who may have “bent the rules” unwittingly, in which case, they may well have a legal defence to criminal conduct. Later, she clarified that she intended to cover individuals with “agency”, even to the extent that their palms have been “greased with money” (which, she argued, they would have to pay back in return for amnesty).</p>
<p>If the right to amnesty was indeed to be a legal entitlement, then the terms on which entitlement to amnesty applies have to be very clearly and carefully drawn. This much has been revealed in Constitutional Court decisions concerning the legal rationality of presidential amnesties or pardons in the case of <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/1997/4.html">women convicts</a> and <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2010/4.html">perpetrators of apartheid era offences</a>.</p>
<p>Madonsela’s public policy rationale appears to be that without an inducement, the smaller cogs in the bigger wheels of state corruption may seek to hide and avoid prosecution when what is required is that they should come forward with information about the bigger fish.</p>
<p>Perhaps, then, an offer of amnesty – in effect, a legal right to indemnity from prosecution – deserves to be given serious consideration. This, especially if it is the case that the <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/66/national-prosecuting-authority-of-south-africa-npa">National Prosecuting Authority </a> is struggling to pull together the evidence to bring strong prosecutions against the most powerful perpetrators of state capture corruption.</p>
<p>But there is no evidence that this is the situation. And, moreover, there are major downsides to be weighed in the balance. </p>
<h2>The case against amnesty</h2>
<p>First of all: deterrence. </p>
<p>The fact that amnesty has been granted in the past may encourage future corrupt actors to take the risk. The corollary is that the successful prosecution of corrupt officials is likely to discourage repetition.</p>
<p>Secondly, the arguments put forward by Madonsela would, in my view, provide grounds for mitigation in sentencing – not for amnesty. One example would be “small fish” cooperating with the investigative authority and providing evidence about the bigger fish. Another example would be if someone could show that they were bullied into bending procurement rules by a superior and more powerful individual in the system.</p>
<p>Another possible avenue – common practice in criminal justice systems around the world – is the use of a “plea bargain”. Here an accused person trades information in return for facing a less serious charge.</p>
<p>Amnesty would, in effect, deprive them of this opportunity and could thereby undermine the integrity of the whole criminal justice system.</p>
<p>The other major consideration is perception – both in the eyes of key stakeholders, such as the investment community and, secondly, the general public.</p>
<p>Investors are especially eager to see if South Africa has the capacity to hold to account those who contaminated the democratic state and so undermined fair competition by enabling a rent-seekers’ paradise. It is about the strength of the rule of law. Investors want to feel confident that this is one destination where the rule of law holds and where, because of state capture prosecutions, there is less risk of a repeat.</p>
<p>And surely, above all else, the public will feel cheated if perpetrators of state capture corruption, however “minor”, get away scot-free. This, more than anything, would encourage a lawless society, steeped in a culture of impunity rather than accountability.</p>
<h2>A dangerous path to tread</h2>
<p>Attempts to trade amnesty for information about state corruption have caused conflict as well as controversy in other countries. One notable example was in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tunisia-politics-corruption-idUSKCN1BO218">Tunisia in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>But the biggest danger is that it simply sends the wrong message. This was aptly spelt out by esteemed South African artist William Kentridge reflecting on a previous attempt at taking the amnesty road in South Africa through the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/trc/">Truth and Reconciliation Commission</a> process. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>A full confession can bring amnesty and immunity from prosecution or civil procedures for the crimes committed. Therein lies the central irony of the Commission. As people give more and more evidence of the things they have done they get closer and closer to amnesty and it gets more and more intolerable that these people should be <a href="https://www.academia.edu/907785/_Learning_From_the_Absurd_Violence_and_Comparative_History_in_William_Kentridge_s_Ubu_Tells_the_Truth_">given amnesty</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Admittedly, Madonsela has a different purpose in mind than the national reconciliation ambition of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission process. But, no, Advocate Madonsela, a blanket amnesty would send the wrong message at the worst possible time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Calland is a member of the Advisory Council of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution (CASAC) and a Partner in political economy consultancy, The Paternoster Group. </span></em></p>The first of a series of fatal flaws in the idea is about where to draw the line.Richard Calland, Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1459902020-09-30T12:28:38Z2020-09-30T12:28:38ZThe urge to punish is not only about revenge – unfairness can unleash it, too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359837/original/file-20200924-18-oeo7km.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C732%2C5371%2C3095&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Everyone wants a slice of the pie.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/four-friends-eating-pizza-outdoors-partial-view-royalty-free-image/707450897">Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine you and your friend are at a party and someone orders pizza. You’re starving. You put a couple of slices on your plate and sit down at the table. Before you start eating, you excuse yourself to wash your hands.</p>
<p>On your way back from the bathroom, you look across the room just in time to see your friend grab one of the slices off your plate and start to eat it. This would probably make you mad, right? You might even feel an urge to get back at them somehow. </p>
<p>Now imagine a slightly different scenario. You and your friend are at the same party but before you have the chance to get pizza, you excuse yourself to wash your hands. While you’re gone, the pizza is served and your friend grabs a couple slices for themself but only one for you.</p>
<p>This would also probably make you kind of mad, right? But why? This time your friend didn’t actually steal your pizza, so why does it feel like they did something wrong?</p>
<p>The answer is that unfairness alone is upsetting – upsetting enough to drive people to punish those who have benefited from unfair outcomes. </p>
<p>Along with our colleague <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=u6_SEO4AAAAJ&hl=en">Nichola Raihani</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XNWktKIAAAAJ&hl=en">we</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nVi8unEAAAAJ&hl=en">recently</a> completed a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2020.06.001">psychology experiment</a> that supports this concept. The idea that unfairness alone can motivate punishment runs counter to a lot of existing research that suggests <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X11002160">punishment</a> is driven primarily by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171298">revenge</a>. </p>
<p>Why does this matter? Because understanding what motivates punishment can help shed light on the functions it serves in human societies – and possibly even why punishment evolved in the first place. </p>
<h2>Deterrence and leveling</h2>
<p>Revenge-based punishment may serve an important deterrence function – encouraging those who have harmed you to behave better in the future. </p>
<p>Inequity-based punishment, on the other hand, may serve an important leveling function – making sure you’re not worse off than those around you, potentially giving you a competitive edge – or at least preventing others from gaining too much of a step up.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A statue of Lady Justice with a sword in one hand and scales in the other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359143/original/file-20200921-22-5ph8ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Humans have been concerned with justice for ages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/statue-of-lady-justice-royalty-free-image/155419475">georgeclerk/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our study, we wanted to understand what drives people to punish others. Is it revenge, inequity or both? </p>
<p>We paired up thousands of participants who had never met in an online economic game in which they made decisions about real money. In one condition, just as in the first pizza example, one player stole money from another player. In some cases, depending on the amount of money the victim started with, stealing meant the thief ended up with more money than the victim.</p>
<p>We expected this theft would motivate victims to punish and we were right: People do not like being stolen from and would pay to punish thieves, reducing their income in the game. This evidence supports the idea that punishment is motivated by revenge.</p>
<p>However, this scenario didn’t tell us whether people also punish in response to unfairness. To test this possibility, we designed a similar situation – one that resulted in one player ending up with more than the other – but, in this case, no theft occurred. Rather, like the second pizza example, one player had a chance to gift money to the other player, at no cost to themself, or the money disappeared.</p>
<p>In these cases, a player who refused to give money to the other would sometimes end up with more money – the unfair outcome we were curious about. Interestingly, we found people were more likely to punish when they had less money than the other player – even when no theft had occurred. </p>
<p>This showed us that unfairness alone, even in the absence of a direct transgression like theft, is enough to motivate punishment. </p>
<h2>A multipurpose behavior</h2>
<p>Our new findings are exciting because they suggest that people have different motivations to punish others. Sure, people are motivated to seek revenge on those who have stolen from them, but they are also willing to punish in cases where they simply have less than others. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>This finding suggests punishment likely evolved for different uses – deterrence as well as leveling the playing field – showcasing how one behavior can serve different functions. That punishment can serve such different functions implies that both deterrence and resource leveling might have increased the genetic fitness of our ancestors. In other words, as humans evolved, people who punished to deter others or level the playing field passed on more of their genes than those who punished less.</p>
<p>So next time you’re deciding whether to take more than your fair share of pizza, maybe think twice. Otherwise you might unwittingly become the target of a hungry punisher looking for justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>During the study period, I received funding from the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR). It was an Azrieli Global Scholars award. Our lab had other external funding during this time, but it was not relevant to this project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Deutchman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Unfairness alone is upsetting enough to drive people to punish lucky recipients of unfair outcomes.Paul Deutchman, PhD Candidate in Psychology, Boston CollegeKatherine McAuliffe, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Boston CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469002020-09-29T13:11:20Z2020-09-29T13:11:20ZWill increasing fines make people comply with coronavirus rules?<p>The UK is under a new <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uks-new-coronavirus-restrictions-explained-by-a-public-health-expert-146729">coronavirus regime</a> – one in which pubs close at 10pm and businesses not deemed “COVID-secure” can be forced to close. That also means there is a new set of fines for those who break the rules, for example, by not wearing a mask in the back of a taxi.</p>
<p>Compliance with coronavirus rules has been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54320482">decreasing over time</a>, which is expected – I <a href="https://theconversation.com/complying-with-lockdown-does-become-harder-over-time-heres-why-138691">predicted</a> as much back in May. To combat this, the UK government has doubled the fine for first offences from £100 to £200, and introduced penalties of up to £10,000 for breaking isolation, in the hope that the new penalties will increase compliance with the rules. </p>
<p>But will it work?</p>
<h2>Why we comply</h2>
<p>In economics, there has been a sustained interest in the effects of sanctions on behaviour since <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-62853-7_2">at least the late 1960s</a>. In particular, the literature on <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0047272772900102">compliance in paying taxes</a>, which has interesting parallels with the domain of health. </p>
<p>Three parallels between paying tax and complying with coronavirus measures are noteworthy: </p>
<ol>
<li>The action taken (paying taxes, staying indoors, wearing a mask, washing hands) is costly for the individual.<br></li>
<li>Compliance benefits society as a whole.<br></li>
<li>Both individual and societal benefits are hard to observe.<br></li>
</ol>
<p>This last point is particularly important. When benefits are hard to observe, our perception of them becomes critically important for the question of whether we comply. For some, the perceived benefits are high, perhaps higher than the actual benefits accrued to society and the individual. For others, the perceived benefits are low, perhaps lower than the costs they must pay to comply. </p>
<p>From here, it is relatively straightforward to see that for some, the perceived benefits are high enough to outweigh the costs of compliance, and hence these people choose to comply. For others, the perceived benefits of compliance are lower than the costs, and hence they do not. So to increase compliance, the perceived benefits of doing so need to increase.</p>
<p>The problem is that perceptions are hard to shift, and require high degrees of trust and consistent communication from those asking you change your behaviour. Instead, policymakers have traditionally focused on <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=vJGHrRl1s7kC">enforcement and deterrence</a>, effectively raising the costs of non-compliance. </p>
<h2>Why deterrence doesn’t work</h2>
<p>To see why simply increasing fines may not be the best way to change behaviour, let’s <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=dh0qhqTOtb0C">follow the literature</a> and distinguish between two aspects of compliance: </p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Voluntary compliance.</strong> This is where we follow the rules even in the absence of enforcement mechanisms. This represents a high degree of cooperation and is the level of compliance that governments typically aim for. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Enforced compliance.</strong> This is when we comply with a rule solely to avoid fines. Enforced compliance typically increases adherence to only those rules that are observable and enforceable. This represents a low degree of cooperation.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>To increase enforced compliance, the government has <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2565123">three options</a>: increase monitoring, increase fines or to increase both. Increasing monitoring is very expensive as it requires, for example, extra policing. Increasing fines is the cheaper policy option, and can allow for additional monitoring over time if necessary. </p>
<p>But there are drawbacks to both these approaches. The first is that they generally apply to easily observable phenomenon such as wearing a mask at a store, but not to washing hands at home. This means that the range of behaviours you can target with enforced compliance strategies are limited. The second drawback is that these strategies can backfire and actually reduce compliance, particularly if the fines are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature01474">perceived as unfair</a>. Studies of tax payers in <a href="https://www.ntanet.org/NTJ/59/4/ntj-v59n04p817-32-audits-enhance-compliance-empirical.html">Chile, Argentina</a> and the US state of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272799001073">Minnesota</a> have all shown that increased auditing can have the unintended effect of decreasing the amount of tax paid.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487019301746">recent paper</a>, my coauthors and I used data from 44 countries to show that, when it comes to paying taxes, if citizens believe authorities can detect and sanction behaviour easily, enforced compliance increases because of the fear of being found out. In the same vein, if people believe the authorities are working in the best interest of citizens, voluntary compliance increases. </p>
<h2>Compliance and coronavirus</h2>
<p>In the absence of a vaccine, voluntary compliance remains our best defence against COVID-19. Yet <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54309603">recent protests</a> in the UK against the regulations show that there is a lot more that needs to be done to get people on board.</p>
<p>Research carried out over the course of the current pandemic has shown that people are more likely to voluntarily follow the rules when <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185265/">their perceived risk of catching the virus is high</a>, and when they believe that <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589791820300098">compliance is effective in avoiding COVID-19</a>. </p>
<p>So beyond the new coronavirus fines, the government should focus on getting people to do the right thing because they want to, wherever they are. The way to do this is to focus on communicating guidelines clearly and taking steps to gain and retain citizen trust. </p>
<p>Communication of the dangers of non-compliance needs to be clear and consistent, something that has not always been the case so far. The Dominic Cummings scandal – in which the senior government adviser was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52811168">revealed</a> to have broken the rules by driving to Durham from London during lockdown – <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-asked-people-if-they-were-breaking-lockdown-rules-before-and-after-the-dominic-cummings-scandal-heres-what-they-told-us-139994">badly damaged trust</a> in the government. Confusion over whether the government and its scientific advisers actually <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-government-emails-discussion-vallance-whitty-b551288.html">supported the idea of herd immunity</a> at the start of the pandemic has also muddied the waters significantly. </p>
<p>Fines for failing to follow the rules may bring some people into line for fear of being found out. But to really get everyone involved in preventing coronavirus by washing hands, physically distancing and wearing masks, the government needs to communicate better and try to restore trust.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sheheryar Banuri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What makes us comply with the rules? Behavioural economics holds some clues for how to enforce coronavirus measures.Sheheryar Banuri, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1440092020-08-06T10:25:48Z2020-08-06T10:25:48ZLessons from two pan-African giants on how to achieve genuine nuclear disarmament<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351524/original/file-20200806-22-119nyyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hiroshima after the US military dropped the atomic bomb on 6 August 1945. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peace Memorial Museum</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year marks the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/04/world/gallery/hiroshima-nagasaki-atomic-bomb/index.html">in 1945</a>, the only time in history that nuclear bombs have been used. </p>
<p>The atomic bombs killed tens of thousands of people instantly, with many others succumbing to horrific wounds or radiation sickness days, weeks, months and years afterwards. Subsequent generations, born to the survivors, suffered birth defects. The two cities were just about <a href="https://www.history.com/news/hiroshima-nagasaki-atomic-bomb-photos-before-after">flattened</a>.</p>
<p>For some, nuclear weapons represent a necessary evil that brought an end to World War II and have since kept major powers from repeating the <a href="https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/waltz1.htm">slaughter of such wars</a>. For others, nuclear weapons represent a moral low point in human history, falling into the same category as slavery. For this group, the only solution is to <a href="https://www.wagingpeace.org/the-challenge-of-abolishing-nuclear-weapons-2/">abolish them</a>. </p>
<p>There are at least two traditions of African thought on nuclear weapons, traceable to their most vocal exponents: <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-decades-of-debate-about-nkrumahs-pan-african-ideas-132684">Kwame Nkrumah</a>, the scholarly first president of independent Ghana, and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2014/10/15/in-memoriam-intellectual-ali-mazrui-1933-2014/">Ali Mazrui</a>, the renowned Kenyan scholar. </p>
<p>Both Nkrumah and Mazrui associated nuclear weapons with imperialism and racism, but proposed different approaches to address the problem they present. Nkrumah’s was an abolitionist non-violent approach. He argued for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament and saw nuclear imperialism as the exploitation of smaller states and indigenous people and territory for nuclear tests and uranium mining. </p>
<p>Mazrui, on the other hand, argued for nuclear proliferation before nuclear disarmament could take place. His view was that the dominant policy towards nuclear weapons afforded some states the political privilege of having them, while denying this right to others. What <em>he</em> called nuclear imperialism. </p>
<p>Nkrumah’s approach arguably became <em>the</em> African approach to nuclear weapons. As a leading member of the Non Aligned Movement, Africa’s participation in the global nuclear order was directed through the organisation in the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. Closer to home, the achievement of an <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/african-nuclear-weapon-free-zone-treaty-pelindaba-treaty">Africa Nuclear Free Zone</a> treaty in 2009 was a direct outflow of Nkrumah’s approach. </p>
<p>Mazrui’s approach never had much official traction.</p>
<p>I argue that to end nuclear imperialism, African states have to reconcile Nkrumah’s and Mazrui’s approaches to nuclear weapons. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-efforts-to-secure-a-deal-on-banning-all-nuclear-weapons-are-so-important-75484">Why efforts to secure a deal on banning all nuclear weapons are so important</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reconciling the two approaches</h2>
<p>Tackling nuclear imperialism would require African countries to sign up to the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/tpnw/">Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons</a>, or the Ban Treaty, of 2017. This treaty is a first step toward eliminating the weapons themselves and the systems of control and exploitation they make possible. African states participated in the treaty process. More than 20 have signed the treaty and five have so far ratified it.</p>
<p>It would also require African states to withdraw from the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/">Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty</a>. All African states are currently members of this treaty. But, after 50 years in existence, there is little hope that it will deliver <a href="https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/armaments/nuclear-weapons/3345-uncertainty-haunts-the-future-of-non-proliferation-treaty-and-disarmament">genuine nuclear disarmament</a>. </p>
<p>Reconciling Nkrumah’s idealism and Mazrui’s realism helps us see these treaties for what they are: the Ban Treaty is based on humanitarian concerns and the equality of states; the Non Proliferation Treaty legalises a few states’ nuclear hegemony indefinitely. </p>
<p>It is time for African states to lead in creating a new non-nuclear order.</p>
<h2>Where both of them stood</h2>
<p>An internationalist and pan-Africanist, Nkrumah saw abolition as the answer to nuclear weapons. He saw them as the “sword of Damocles” hanging over humanity. Embedded in the global peace movement of the time, he advocated for “positive action” – an outflow of Gandhiist non-violence. He attended and hosted several conferences with an anti-nuclear agenda, including an assembly in 1962 on the theme <a href="https://history.wustl.edu/files/history/imce/allman_nuclear_imperialism.pdf">“A world without the bomb”</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351533/original/file-20200806-20-1v0u78r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351533/original/file-20200806-20-1v0u78r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351533/original/file-20200806-20-1v0u78r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351533/original/file-20200806-20-1v0u78r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351533/original/file-20200806-20-1v0u78r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351533/original/file-20200806-20-1v0u78r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351533/original/file-20200806-20-1v0u78r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Kwame Nkrumah, first president of independent Ghana. Undated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although many Africans lost faith in the value of non-violence and preferred a military solution to imperialism, Nkrumah’s approach to nuclear weapons did not fade. It was enmeshed with the position espoused by the Non Aligned Movement, and was the <a href="http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/jspui/bitstream/10539/14761/1/Monyae%20M%20M%20D%201999-001.pdf">position</a> adopted by the African National Congress in South Africa in 1994.</p>
<p>For his part, Mazrui believed African states should not pursue a nuclear weapon free zone and should leave the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/">1970 Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty</a>.</p>
<p>The treaty was considered a landmark arms control agreement between the five states that had tested nuclear weapons by 1967 (the US, UK, France, Russia and China) and non-nuclear weapon states. States without nuclear weapons agreed not to acquire them in exchange for access to peaceful nuclear technology, while the nuclear weapon states agreed to give them up at some unspecified date in the future. </p>
<p>Mazrui saw the Non Proliferation Treaty as a trap that smacked of racism, where major powers got to say <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00gq1wn">“such and such a weapon is not for Africans and children under 16”</a>.</p>
<p>Mazrui was thus “advocating nuclear proliferation as the <em>only</em> realistic path to nuclear disarmament. This was a <a href="https://richardfalk.wordpress.com/category/ali-mazrui/%22">total inversion of the Western consensus</a>.” </p>
<h2>Wasted opportunities</h2>
<p>The five nuclear powers have wasted many opportunities to negotiate the nuclear disarmament that the 50-year-old Non Proliferation Treaty binds them to. Instead, key nuclear arms control treaties have been discarded and all the nuclear weapon states are <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2019/09/is-it-time-to-ditch-the-npt/">modernising their arsenals</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VeZGBXSYCmo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The global nuclear arsenal in 2020/Nuclear knowledges.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The treaty has also not stopped proliferation: four other states have since acquired nuclear weapons – Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea. </p>
<p>Mazrui was right. In practice, the treaty is at most a status quo treaty that has come to legalise a small club being able to wield nuclear weapons – what India calls <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1998-09-01/against-nuclear-apartheid">nuclear apartheid</a>. </p>
<p>The treaty is not just about separating states into haves and have nots; it is also a stick to beat the have nots into submission. </p>
<p>In the Iraq War of 2003 the US used stopping nuclear proliferation as a false premise to justify making war on that country and is today doing the same <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2019/09/is-it-time-to-ditch-the-npt/">to sanction Iran</a>. States without nuclear weapons accepted the Non Proliferation Treaty in the hope that it would deliver a world without nuclear weapons, but that hasn’t happened and their <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2019/11/taking-erdogans-critique-of-the-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty-seriously/">patience is running out</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351534/original/file-20200806-16-verhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351534/original/file-20200806-16-verhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351534/original/file-20200806-16-verhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351534/original/file-20200806-16-verhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351534/original/file-20200806-16-verhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351534/original/file-20200806-16-verhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351534/original/file-20200806-16-verhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Kenyan scholar Professor Ali Mazrui.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Photo by John Patriquin/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)</span></span>
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<p>The efforts of the majority of states that went outside the Non Proliferation Treaty forum to negotiate the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/tpnw/">Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons</a> three years ago, to make nuclear weapons illegal for all, without exception, need to succeed. The Ban Treaty will enter into force when 50 states have ratified it. The number currently stands at 40.</p>
<p>The Ban Treaty was only possible because of a broad international coalition emphasising the unacceptable humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>To end nuclear imperialism, African states have to reconcile Nkrumah and Mazrui’s approaches by not only joining the Ban Treaty, but also withdrawing from the Non Proliferation Treaty. This will signal that African states will only take part as equals in global nuclear governance where these weapons are illegal for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joelien Pretorius has in the past received funding from the National Research Foundation in South Africa. She is affiliated with Pugwash (South Africa chapter). </span></em></p>Kwame Nkrumah and Ali Mazrui associated nuclear weapons with imperialism and racism, but proposed different approaches to address the problem they present.Joelien Pretorius, Associate Professor in Political Studies, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/722392017-05-12T00:32:20Z2017-05-12T00:32:20ZGlobal ransomware attack reinforces message of Trump’s new cybersecurity order<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169038/original/file-20170511-32593-tz9b4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Locking down the federal government.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cybersecurity-network-connected-devices-personal-data-439385911">NicoElNico via shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://arstechnica.com/security/2017/05/an-nsa-derived-ransomware-worm-is-shutting-down-computers-worldwide/">cyberattack is sweeping the world</a>, infecting thousands of computers and demanding their owners pay a ransom or risk losing all their data. The threat, which has <a href="https://consumerist.com/2017/05/12/ransomware-attack-hitting-fedex-hospitals-utilities-and-more-in-at-least-74-countries/">affected the FedEx shipping company</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-39901382">several hospitals in the UK</a>, a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/telefonica-and-other-firms-have-been-infected-by-wannacry-malware-2017-5">major Spanish telecommunications company</a>, and many more, makes even more urgent the need to improve U.S. cybersecurity – both within the federal government and throughout our internet-connected society.</p>
<p>President Trump’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/05/11/presidential-executive-order-strengthening-cybersecurity-federal">new executive order on cybersecurity</a> for federal computer networks and key elements of the country’s infrastructure – such as the electricity grid and core communications networks – builds meaningfully on <a href="https://fas.org/irp/eprint/cnci.pdf">the work of the Obama administration</a>. It focuses on matters of common and bipartisan concern, meaning it is likely to avoid <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/29/512272524/of-courts-and-confusion-heres-the-reaction-to-trumps-immigration-freeze">the disquiet and disorganization</a> generated by other recent executive orders.</p>
<p>Cybersecurity is ultimately an exercise in risk management. Given the range of possible threats and the pace at which they may appear, it is impossible to protect everything, everywhere, all the time. But it is possible to make sure that the most valuable resources (such as particular networks and systems, or specific data) are properly protected by, at minimum, <a href="https://theconversation.com/before-decrying-the-latest-cyberbreach-consider-your-own-cyberhygiene-37834">good cyber-hygiene</a> – and ideally, more.</p>
<p>The executive order seeks to do just that, by calling on Cabinet secretaries and the heads of other federal agencies to follow the <a href="https://www.nist.gov/cyberframework">Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity</a>, created by the National Institute of Standards and Technology under the Obama administration. That framework also figures prominently in the <a href="https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2016/12/02/cybersecurity-commission-report-final-post.pdf">final report</a> of Obama’s Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity.</p>
<p>Three key topics of the executive order are of particular interest because they suggest significant new developments in the federal government’s approach to cybersecurity. The order rightly highlights <a href="https://theconversation.com/cybersecuritys-next-phase-cyber-deterrence-67090">cyber-deterrence</a>, the process of discouraging prospective attackers from actually trying to breach our systems. In addition, the order correctly identifies the electricity grid as needing stronger security – as well as the military’s warfighting capabilities.</p>
<h2>Stepping up cyber-deterrence</h2>
<p>One crucial element that has been largely missing from American cybersecurity efforts so far is cyber-deterrence. Just as nuclear deterrence let countries with nuclear weapons know that launching a nuclear attack would mean their own swift and sure destruction, cyber-deterrence involves making clear to prospective adversaries that attacks will either be too unlikely to succeed, or will be met by certain and severe retribution. </p>
<p>The executive order asks a wide group of senior government officials – the secretaries of Commerce, Defense, Homeland Security, State and Treasury, plus the attorney general, the government’s top trade negotiator and the director of national intelligence – to develop options for deterring cyber-adversaries (without specifying any in particular).</p>
<p>Deterrence must, by nature, be multi-dimensional: It has to include a variety of obstacles to incoming attacks, as well as potential consequences for attackers. Coordinating diplomacy, military and economic efforts will be crucial to presenting a unified front to would-be adversaries. </p>
<p>This is not to say that a one-size strategy will fit all. To the contrary, besides a robust general posture, the U.S. must also tailor its specific deterrence efforts to make sure they are effective against individual potential adversaries. </p>
<h2>Protecting the grid and the military’s warfighting capabilities</h2>
<p>The executive order also calls for additional protection of the electricity grid against cyberattacks. The potential is not hypothetical: <a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ukrainian-power-station-hacking-december-2016-report">Ukraine’s grid was attacked twice</a>, in December 2015 and December 2016.</p>
<p>And it calls attention to the military’s <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/defense-industrial-base-sector">industrial base</a>, including its supply chain – which collectively produces, delivers and maintains weapons systems and component parts that are necessities for the Department of Defense. A successful cyber-attack on key suppliers could hamstring America’s armed forces as much as a physical incursion against them on the battlefield.</p>
<p>Yet, as important as it is to identify and remedy existing vulnerabilities, the better course is always to design computer systems securely in the first place. The executive order focuses more on the former than the latter, since we must work with the capabilities and equipment we have, rather than just those we would wish to have.</p>
<h2>Basic guidance</h2>
<p>More generally, the executive order discusses and reinforces the basic principles of good cyber-hygiene. For instance, it emphasizes the significant risks to departments and agencies, and the citizens they serve, if known vulnerabilities remain unrepaired. For instance, without proper protections, taxpayer records, Social Security data and medical records <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/679877.pdf">could be stolen or fraudulently altered</a>.</p>
<p>Sadly, this is a vital issue. Recent testimony from the <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/679877.pdf">Government Accountability Office</a> documents the widespread problems government agencies have failing to install routine security upgrades and even using software so outdated the company that created it no longer supports it.</p>
<p>But the executive order also looks to a future federal government that takes advantage of cloud computing and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/internet-of-things-1724">Internet of Things</a>. The document not only calls for safeguarding existing networks and data; it declares the importance of systematic planning for future technological upgrades and advances, to manage risk effectively. Maintenance and modernization both matter, and both must be done securely.</p>
<p>Overall, the order is a solid document, with guidance that is both measured and clear. Key to its success – and ultimately to the country’s security in cyberspace – will be the relationship the government builds with private industry. Protecting the country won’t be possible without both groups working in tandem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72239/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The George Washington University Center for Cyber and Homeland Security (CCHS) receives funding in the current year (2017) from the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) in support of the Center's work on cybersecurity issues. CCHS has also been the recipient of funding from The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation, for a project on active defense against cyber threats in the private sector. Frank was Prinicipal Investigator for these projects. He is affilated with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, the National Consortium for Advanced Policing, CBS and KnowCyber.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The George Washington University Center for Cyber and Homeland Security (CCHS) receives funding in the current year (2017) from the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) in support of the Center's work on cybersecurity issues. CCHS has also been the recipient of funding from The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation, for a project on active defense against cyber threats in the private sector.</span></em></p>President Trump’s new executive order on cybersecurity signals some significant new federal cybersecurity efforts.Frank J. Cilluffo, Director, Center for Cyber and Homeland Security, George Washington UniversitySharon L. Cardash, Associate Director, Center for Cyber and Homeland Security, George Washington UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/670902016-12-13T03:55:56Z2016-12-13T03:55:56ZCybersecurity’s next phase: Cyber-deterrence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149483/original/image-20161209-31385-l5279y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can we reduce the likelihood of digital attacks?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-519713296/">Digital defense via shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cyberattackers pose many threats to a wide range of targets. Russia, for example, was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-government-officially-accuses-russia-of-hacking-campaign-to-influence-elections/2016/10/07/4e0b9654-8cbf-11e6-875e-2c1bfe943b66_story.html">accused of hacking</a> Democratic Party computers throughout the year, interfering with the U.S. presidential election. Then there was the unknown attacker who, on a single October day, used thousands of internet-connected devices, such as digital video recorders and cameras compromised by <a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/10/source-code-for-iot-botnet-mirai-released/">Mirai malware</a>, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/26/ddos-attack-dyn-mirai-botnet">take down several high-profile websites</a>, including Twitter.</p>
<p>From 2005 to 2015, federal agencies reported a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/22/federal-cyber-incidents-jump-1300-in-10-years/">1,300 percent jump in cybersecurity incidents</a>. Clearly, we need better ways of addressing this broad category of threats. Some of us in the cybersecurity field are asking whether <a href="http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-77/jfq-77_8-15_Denning.pdf">cyber deterrence</a> might help.</p>
<p>Deterrence focuses on making potential adversaries think twice about attacking, forcing them to consider the costs of doing so, as well as the consequences that might come from a counterattack. There are two main <a href="http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2015/also-in-2015/deterrence-russia-military/EN/index.htm">principles of deterrence</a>. The first, denial, involves convincing would-be attackers that they won’t succeed, at least without enormous effort and cost beyond what they are willing to invest. The second is punishment: Making sure the adversaries know there will be a strong response that might inflict more harm than they are willing to bear.</p>
<p>For decades, deterrence has effectively countered the threat of nuclear weapons. Can we achieve similar results against cyber weapons?</p>
<h2>Why cyber deterrence is hard</h2>
<p>Nuclear deterrence works because few countries have nuclear weapons or the significant resources needed to invest in them. Those that do have them recognize that <a href="http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=585">launching a first strike risks a devastating nuclear response</a>. Further, the international community has established institutions, such as the <a href="https://www.iaea.org/">International Atomic Energy Agency</a>, and agreements, such as the <a href="http://disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/npt">Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons</a>, to counter the catastrophic threat nuclear weapons pose.</p>
<p>Cyber weapons are nothing like nuclear ones. They are readily developed and deployed by individuals and small groups as well as states. They are easily replicated and distributed across networks, <a href="http://faculty.nps.edu/dedennin/publications/Berlin.pdf">rendering impossible</a> the hope of anything that might be called “cyber nonproliferation.” Cyber weapons are often deployed under a cloak of anonymity, making it difficult to figure out who is really responsible. And cyberattacks can achieve a broad range of effects, most of which are disruptive and costly, but not catastrophic.</p>
<p>This does not mean cyber deterrence is doomed to failure. The sheer scale of cyberattacks demands that we do better to defend against them.</p>
<p>There are three things we can do to strengthen cyber deterrence: Improve cybersecurity, employ active defenses and establish international norms for cyberspace. The first two of these measures will significantly improve our cyber defenses so that even if an attack is not deterred, it will not succeed.</p>
<h2>Stepping up protection</h2>
<p>Cybersecurity aids deterrence primarily through the principle of denial. It stops attacks before they can achieve their goals. This includes beefing up login security, encrypting data and communications, fighting viruses and other malware, and keeping software updated to patch weaknesses when they’re found. </p>
<p>But even more important is developing products that have few if any security vulnerabilities when they are shipped and installed. The Mirai botnet, capable of <a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/10/hacked-cameras-dvrs-powered-todays-massive-internet-outage/">generating massive data floods that overload internet servers</a>, takes over devices that have gaping security holes, including <a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/10/iot-device-maker-vows-product-recall-legal-action-against-western-accusers/">default passwords hardcoded into firmware</a> that users can’t change. While some companies such as <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/microsoftsecure/author/stevelipner/">Microsoft invest heavily in product security</a>, others, including many Internet-of-Things vendors, do not.</p>
<p>Cybersecurity guru <a href="http://www.schneier.com">Bruce Schneier</a> aptly characterizes the prevalence of insecure Internet-of-Things devices as a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/11/03/your-wifi-connected-thermostat-can-take-down-the-whole-internet-we-need-new-regulations/">market failure akin to pollution</a>. Simply put, the market favors cheap insecure devices over ones that are more costly but secure. His solution? Regulation, either by imposing basic security standards on manufacturers, or by holding them liable when their products are used in attacks.</p>
<h2>Active defenses</h2>
<p>When it comes to taking action against attackers, there are many ways to monitor, identify and counter adversary cyberattacks. These active cyber defenses are <a href="http://faculty.nps.edu/dedennin/publications/Active%20Cyber%20Defense%20-%20Cyber%20Analogies.pdf">similar to air defense systems</a> that monitor the sky for hostile aircraft and shoot down incoming missiles. Network monitors that watch for and block (“shoot down”) hostile packets are one example, as are <a href="https://www.sans.org/security-resources/idfaq/what-is-a-honeypot/1/9">honeypots</a> that attract or deflect adversary packets into safe areas. There, they do not harm the targeted network, and can even be studied to reveal attackers’ techniques. </p>
<p>Another set of active defenses involves collecting, analyzing and sharing information about potential threats so that network operators can respond to the latest developments. For example, operators could <a href="https://www.arbornetworks.com/blog/asert/mirai-iot-botnet-description-ddos-attack-mitigation/">regularly scan their systems</a> looking for devices vulnerable to or compromised by the Mirai botnet or other malware. If they found some, they could disconnect the devices from the network and alert the devices’ owners to the danger.</p>
<p>Active cyber defense does more than just deny attackers opportunities. It can often unmask the people behind them, leading to punishment. Nongovernment attackers can be <a href="https://www.scmagazine.com/avalanche-cyber-crime-platform-dismantled-eu-security-forces-praised/article/576573/">shut down, arrested and prosecuted</a>; countries conducting or supporting cyberwarfare can be sanctioned by the international community. </p>
<p>Currently, however, the private sector is <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/criminal-ccips/legacy/2015/05/18/CSIS%20Roundtable%205-18-15.pdf">reluctant to employ</a> many active defenses because of legal uncertainties. The Center for Cyber and Homeland Security at George Washington University <a href="https://cchs.gwu.edu/sites/cchs.gwu.edu/files/downloads/CCHS-ActiveDefenseReportFINAL.pdf">recommends several actions</a> that the government and the private sector could take to enable more widespread use of active defenses, including clarifying regulations.</p>
<h2>Setting international norms</h2>
<p>Finally, international norms for cyberspace can aid deterrence if national governments believe they would be named and shamed within the international community for conducting a cyberattack. The U.S. brought charges in 2014 <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-charges-five-chinese-military-hackers-cyber-espionage-against-us-corporations-and-labor">against five Chinese military hackers</a> for targeting American companies. A year later, the U.S. and China <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/06/15/inside-the-slow-workings-of-the-u-s-china-cybersecurity-agreement/">agreed to not steal and exploit each other’s corporate secrets</a> for commercial advantage. In the wake of those events, <a href="https://www.fireeye.com/content/dam/fireeye-www/current-threats/pdfs/rpt-china-espionage.pdf">cyber espionage from China plummeted</a>.</p>
<p>Also in 2015, a U.N. group of experts recommended <a href="http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/70/174">banning cyberattacks against critical infrastructure</a>, including a country’s computer emergency response teams. And later that year, the G20 issued a <a href="http://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/052516_Painter_Testimony.pdf">statement opposing the theft of intellectual property</a> to benefit commercial entities. These norms might deter governments from conducting such attacks.</p>
<p>Cyberspace will never be immune to attack – no more than our streets will be immune to crime. But with stronger cybersecurity, increased use of active cyber defenses, and international cyber norms, we can hope to at least keep a lid on the problem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorothy Denning is Distinguished Professor of Defense Analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Department of Defense or the U.S. federal government.</span></em></p>For decades, deterrence has effectively countered the threat of nuclear weapons. Can we achieve similar results against cyber weapons?Dorothy Denning, Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/678002016-10-28T07:43:59Z2016-10-28T07:43:59ZCETA: was Brexit, rather than the Walloons, behind trade deal stutter?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143513/original/image-20161027-11236-zuj8l4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s trade deal with the EU, CETA, appears to be <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37788882">back on track</a>. It has overcome its latest stumbling block, <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-the-walloons-and-why-are-they-blocking-europes-free-trade-deal-with-canada-67718">a veto by the Belgian region of Wallonia</a>, and must now be approved by the other 27 EU members.</p>
<p>CETA’s rollercoaster ride will no doubt be used by both Brexiteers and Remainers to support their pre-existing narratives. For Brexiteers, the EU’s struggle to agree a trade deal with Canada will be further proof that the UK is better off outside the EU. For those who oppose Britain leaving the EU, difficulties in finalising the Canada-EU trade agreement will likely be seen as proof of how difficult the UK will find it to negotiate a satisfactory trade agreement with the rest of the EU within the two-year time window that would follow Article 50 notification.</p>
<p>We have a different view. Based on international relations theory, we interpret the EU’s dealing with Canada as making it clear to Britain that negotiating a free trade agreement will be very long and difficult. It has raised the expected price of Brexit. CETA and the Canadian Trade Minister are merely collateral damage. </p>
<h2>Sending signals</h2>
<p>There is a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2010405?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">vast</a> <a href="http://slantchev.ucsd.edu/courses/pdf/powell-is2003v27n4.pdf">literature</a> in international relations on the themes of deterrence and signalling. This refers to how states interact and try to negotiate their interests.</p>
<p>The most famous of these is <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/20089122">“mutually assured destruction”</a>. This was the theory developed in the Cold War that the threat of a nuclear strike was enough to prevent the other side from striking, as it would lead to the annihilation of both sides. Although this particular theory of deterrence is not terribly relevant to understanding trade negotiations between capitalist democracies, a softer form of deterrence and signalling is at work. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143503/original/image-20161027-11260-1byee8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143503/original/image-20161027-11260-1byee8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143503/original/image-20161027-11260-1byee8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143503/original/image-20161027-11260-1byee8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143503/original/image-20161027-11260-1byee8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143503/original/image-20161027-11260-1byee8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143503/original/image-20161027-11260-1byee8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Madness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-245974603/stock-photo-the-dog-shot-military-personnel-observing-a-21-kiloton-atomic-test-6500-soldiers-participated-in-exercises-coordinated-with-the-nuclear-tests-of-the-buster-jangle-series-nov-1-1951.html?src=s6Wl8UQvXJuvCY-m27rXlA-1-16">Everett Historical / from shutterstock.com</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Credible commitments are a crucial part of deterrence. This is not to say that the European Commission in Brussels instructed the regional government of Wallonia to put up resistance to CETA, with a view to deterring the UK from leaving the single market. But the timing of its decision to declare CETA a <a href="http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7492">so-called “mixed agreement”</a> – and give Wallonia the power to reject the deal – supports the idea that it was trying to signal to the British government that negotiating a post-Brexit EU-UK trade deal would be far from straightforward. And, in so doing, it may be hoping to deter the UK from exiting the single market or the EU.</p>
<p>Had the EU opted for an unmixed agreement, it would have only required the approval of the EU parliament, a process involving a far smaller number of potential vetoes. This was <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2016/586597/EPRS_ATA(2016)586597_EN.pdf">highly debated</a> throughout the first half of 2016. Then, on July 5, not long after the UK’s referendum vote, <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-2371_en.htm">a press release from Jean-Claude Junker</a>, president of the European Commission, announced that the CETA agreement would be considered a “mixed one” and therefore require the approval of all EU nations – and, as in the case of Belgium, sub-national legislatures as well. </p>
<p>In choosing to declare CETA to be a mixed agreement, the European Commission must have been aware that many of the veto points across the continent were controlled by politicians increasingly aware of the rise of anti-globalisation and anti-trade sentiment <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/18/opinion/sunday/put-globalization-to-work-for-democracies.html?_r=0">in public opinion throughout the developed world</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143501/original/image-20161027-32322-17bryvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143501/original/image-20161027-32322-17bryvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143501/original/image-20161027-32322-17bryvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143501/original/image-20161027-32322-17bryvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143501/original/image-20161027-32322-17bryvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143501/original/image-20161027-32322-17bryvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143501/original/image-20161027-32322-17bryvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Happier times: Canada’s trade minister Chrystia Freeland and European Parliament president, Martin Schulz, in April 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/photosmartinschulz/26629921906">Martin Schulz/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is something that Canada’s international trade minister, <a href="http://pm.gc.ca/eng/minister/honourable-chrystia-freeland">Chrystia Freeland</a>, has been aware of. She travelled extensively around Europe, meeting with various people with influence or control over these veto points. For instance, she attended a <a href="http://ipolitics.ca/2016/09/19/germanys-social-democrats-vote-to-support-ceta/">conference of Germany’s left-leaning, Social Democratic Party</a>, addressing their concerns and getting them to greenlight the agreement. </p>
<h2>Messaging London, not Ottawa</h2>
<p>Some Canadians were, of course, somewhat taken aback by the European Commission’s eleventh hour decision to change the ratification procedure, especially since Canada’s federal government had long ago completed the arduous task of securing consent to CETA <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ceta-fishery-fund-letters-1.3803878">from Canada’s own sub-national governments, the provinces</a>. Two highly respected Canadian academics, <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/law/about/profs/de-mestral-armand">Armand de Mestral</a> and <a href="https://www.cigionline.org/person/markus-gehring">Markus Gehrin</a>, <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/eu-should-have-told-canada-years-ago-it-was-moving-the-ceta-goal-posts/article32463376/">declared</a> that the “EU should have told Canada years ago it was moving the CETA goal posts” by deeming the agreement a mixed one. </p>
<p>What some observers in Canada may have been missing was that the very recent decision to declare CETA a mixed agreement was about sending a message to London, not Ottawa. In our view, the Canadians shouldn’t take the aftermath of the European Commission’s July decision personally – it’s not about them, it’s really about Brexit.</p>
<p>So how should the UK respond to this signal that’s been sent up by the European Commission? It is clear that, going forward, any trade agreement between the UK and the EU will be a mixed agreement. Since the UK appears to be intent on leaving the EU and the single market, it may need to start thinking about how it can address the concerns of veto holders throughout the EU. At the very least, a Chrystia Freeland-style charm offensive may be in order – although this may strain the human resources of the UK’s brand new <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union">department for exiting the European Union</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67800/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The way that the EU dealt with its CETA trade deal with Canada makes it clear to Britain that negotiating a free trade agreement will be very long and difficult.Andrew Smith, Senior Lecturer in International Business, University of LiverpoolMichael Cole, Lecturer in Organisation and Management, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/551032016-02-24T18:01:10Z2016-02-24T18:01:10ZEvolution of moral outrage: I’ll punish your bad behavior to make me look good<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112802/original/image-20160224-16436-zmd3u3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Standing up for what's right can come with a cost to the individual – but also a benefit.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/fleshmanpix/9301215813">Michael Fleshman</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What makes human morality unique? </p>
<p>One important answer is that we care when other people are harmed. While many animals retaliate when directly mistreated, humans also get outraged at transgressions against others. And this outrage drives us to protest injustice, boycott companies, blow whistles and cut ties with unethical friends and colleagues. </p>
<p>Scientists refer to these behaviors as <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/S1090-5138(04)00005-4">third-party punishment</a>, and they have long been a mystery from the perspective of evolution and rational self-interest. Why should people invest time, effort and resources in punishing – even when they haven’t been harmed directly? While it’s clear that our punishment is <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-015-9466-8">motivated by moral outrage</a>, that raises the question of why we developed a psychology of outrage in the first place.</p>
<h2>Why punish, since it comes with a cost?</h2>
<p>One theory is that people <a href="http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0630443100">punish to benefit society</a>. Social sanctions from peers <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/415137a">can deter misbehavior</a>, just as legal punishment does. To take an example from daily life, if Ted decides to criticize his coworker Dan for going on Facebook during work, Dan and others will be less likely to slack off, and the company will be more productive. Perhaps, then, Ted punishes Dan to promote a successful workplace. </p>
<p>However, this logic can fall prey to the “free-rider problem”: everyone wants to be at a successful company, but nobody wants to sacrifice for it. If Ted punishes Dan, Dan might exclude him from his upcoming party. Why should Ted take this hit?</p>
<p>One reason individuals might benefit from punishing is via rewards for deterring misbehavior: Ted’s boss might reward him for promoting company productivity by criticizing Dan. </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nature16981">recent Nature paper</a>, my colleagues and I provide evidence for a different theory of individual benefits of punishment – one that can operate in conjunction with the rewarding process described above. We argue that individuals who punish can boost their reputations by signaling that they can be trusted. If Ted punishes Dan for going on Facebook, his other coworker, Charlotte, might trust that he won’t slack off if assigned to an important project.</p>
<h2>Signaling one thing by doing another</h2>
<p>To make our case, we first created a game theory model of third-party punishment as a “<a href="http://doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.2001.2406">costly signal</a>” of trustworthiness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112775/original/image-20160224-32745-k7qxx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Have a look at my plumage; you know what this dazzling display means.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/stranger123/16966900121">Shanaka Aravinda</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The concept of costly signaling originated with the <a href="http://octavia.zoology.washington.edu/handicap/honest_biology_02.html">example of the peacock’s tail</a>. Female peacocks want to mate with males who have good genes, but they cannot directly observe genetic quality. So high-quality males woo females with elaborate plumage, which they can afford to produce only because they have good genes. It’s too energetically expensive for low-quality males to produce the same kind of beautiful tails; the cost of trying to do so would be enormous, and not worth the benefit of attracting mates by (falsely) appearing to be high-quality. So beautiful tails end up being a reliable signal for genetic quality. (The same logic can be applied to <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2010.12.002">people signaling their wealth</a> with extravagant watches or sports cars.)</p>
<p>Our model is based on the idea that, just as peacocks vary in their genetic quality, people vary in their incentives to be trustworthy. Imagine that Ted and Eric are both summer interns. Ted aspires to work at the company in the long run, while Eric just wants to add a line to his resume. Both Ted and Eric wish to be selected by Charlotte for the aforementioned project (as getting selected means getting paid more), but they will behave differently if selected. Ted has the incentive to work hard – even at the cost of his weekend plans – because doing so will boost his career prospects in the company. In contrast, Eric will get the line on his resume regardless of if he does a good job, so his incentive is to slack off and enjoy his weekend.</p>
<p>In situations like this, people like Charlotte (whom we call Choosers in our model) must decide whether to trust people like Ted and Eric (whom we call Signalers) – who are either trustworthy (like Ted) or exploitative (like Eric). Choosers cannot directly tell who is trustworthy – if Charlotte asked Eric whether he would work hard, he would say yes: he wants to get the raise! Thus, Choosers must base their decisions on costly signals. Can third-party punishment be such a signal?</p>
<p>We argue that the answer is yes, because the same factors that motivate people to be trustworthy often also motivate them to deter misbehavior via punishment. For example, Ted’s drive to get ahead in the company gives him an incentive to be trustworthy to Charlotte – and also to get rewarded by his boss for punishing Dan. Consequently, the benefit of impressing Charlotte, when combined with the reward from his boss, could be enough to outweigh the cost of punishing. </p>
<p>In contrast, because Eric doesn’t value a reward from his boss very much, he might not find it worth punishing Dan to impress Charlotte. As a result, punishment can serve as an honest and reliable signal of trustworthiness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112795/original/image-20160224-18284-3hgan9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By scolding in the office, are you actually broadcasting information about yourself?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=271840250&src=id">Workplace image via www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From theory to data: economic experiments on how people punish</h2>
<p>Next, we tested this theory using incentivized experiments where we had human subjects engage in a stylized version of the scenario described above. In our experiments, a Signaler subject had the opportunity to sacrifice money to punish a stranger who had treated somebody else selfishly. Then in a second stage, a Chooser subject decided whether to entrust the Signaler with some money – and then the Signaler got to decide how much of the money to return. </p>
<p>The results? As predicted, Choosers were more likely to trust Signalers who had punished selfishness in the first stage. And they were right to do so: Signalers who punished really <em>were</em> more trustworthy, returning more money in the game. Furthermore, when Signalers had a more direct way to signal their trustworthiness to Choosers (by sharing money with a stranger, rather than punishing somebody for not sharing), they were less likely to punish – and Choosers were less likely to care whether they did. </p>
<h2>Implications for human morality</h2>
<p>Thus, we provide evidence that punishing selfishness can act like a peacock’s tail – it can serve as a public display that hints at a quality (trustworthiness) that can’t easily be observed. We help resolve the “free-rider” problem by showing that individuals who punish others benefit from an improved reputation. And we help explain why we might have developed a sense of moral outrage in the first place.</p>
<p>Our theory can also speak to why people sometimes punish wrongdoing that could <em>never</em> affect them personally, even in the future. For example, why do men condemn sexism, even though they have no personal stake in wiping it out? One explanation may be to signal to women that they can be trusted not to behave in a sexist manner. </p>
<p>The signaling account can also help explain our fiery hatred of hypocrites who punish others for behaviors they engage in themselves. Such hatred seems strange when you consider that punishment can help society by deterring misbehavior – if you’re going to behave badly yourself, isn’t it better to at least chip in by punishing wrongdoing? Yet we think hypocrites are much more contemptible than people who behave badly but do not punish others. This perspective makes sense when you consider that hypocrites engage in dishonest signaling – their punishment falsely advertises to others that they can be trusted.</p>
<p>Finally, our theory sheds light on when punishment does – and doesn’t – benefit the group and society. Punishment generally deters misbehavior: when Ted punishes Dan to impress Charlotte and get rewarded by his boss, he is likely to improve workplace productivity. But people don’t always punish in the ways that are best for society. Ted may face similar incentives to punish Dan even if Dan has already been punished by others – or if Ted (but only Ted) knows that Dan’s perceived transgression was actually a well-intentioned mistake. Thus, people may engage in disproportionate punishment, or punish accidents, for the purpose of boosting their own reputations. These examples demonstrate that if punishment evolves to benefit individuals, we should expect imperfect outcomes for society when individual and collective incentives do not align.</p>
<p>Moral outrage and third-party punishment are key features of human morality, and set us apart from other animals. Our research suggests that the drive to punish has a self-interested side, and may exist, in part, to boost our reputations. This conclusion doesn’t undermine the moral good that often results from our drive to punish, but rather sheds light on its origins and its nature.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jillian Jordan receives funding from an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. </span></em></p>It helps society function when people punish selfish acts, even at a personal cost. A new theory suggests third-party punishment also confers some benefits on the punisher.Jillian Jordan, Ph.D. Candidate in Psychology, Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/429682015-08-03T17:54:06Z2015-08-03T17:54:06ZLoss of innocence: the experience of exonerated death row inmates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/87149/original/image-20150702-11311-1wfc3xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Juan Melendez – one of 150 innocent people who have been released from death row. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.witnesstoinnocence.org/media-kit.html">Witness to Innocence</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Juan Melendez spent 17 years, eight months, and one day on Florida’s death row for a crime he did not commit, before being exonerated in 2002 when the transcript of a confession by the real murderer came to light – evidence that had been withheld by the prosecutor. Juan received no assistance and no compensation from the state of Florida in the wake of his exoneration.</p>
<p>Sabrina Butler was a Mississippi teenager convicted of murder and child abuse in the death of her nine-month-old son, Walter Dean. She was later exonerated of all wrongdoing when it was shown that Walter had probably died of a kidney condition and that the bruises on his body were the result of her and a neighbour’s resuscitation attempts. Sabrina returned to her small town where everyone knew her as the “woman who had killed her son”. No one would give her a job. The local prosecutor still maintained her guilt.</p>
<p>Greg Wilhoit was convicted in 1985 of murdering his wife after his attorney appeared in court drunk, vomited in the judge’s chambers and presented no defence. He was convicted on the testimony of rookie dental “experts” who said bite marks on his wife’s arm matched his teeth. At a retrial in 1993, the top US forensic odontologists testified that the mark could not possibly have come from Wilhoit. He was exonerated. He died in 2014 having received no compensation or even an apology from the state of Oklahoma.</p>
<p>The reasons to abolish the death penalty in the US are numerous: it does not deter; it is racially biased in application; it is used almost exclusively on the poor; it is more costly than life in prison; it is torture; and it hypocritically attempts to punish homicide by killing. </p>
<p>That said, no argument against the death penalty resonates more with Americans than the risk of executing an innocent person.</p>
<h2>Discovery of innocence</h2>
<p>Not until the late 1990s and 2000s did Americans begin to recognise the extent to which innocent people are convicted, incarcerated, and sentenced to death by our courts. This “discovery of innocence” was prompted, in part, by a new network of <a href="http://innocencenetwork.org/">innocence projects</a>, the use of DNA to exonerate the innocent, and a growing number of <a href="http://www.unc.edu/%7Efbaum/Innocence/BaumgartnerWesterveltCookPolicyResponses-2013.pdf">more public exonerations every year</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/87169/original/image-20150702-11318-14emvid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sabrina Butler was until very recently the only woman to have been exonerated and released from death row.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Witness to Innocence</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result, more than <a href="https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Pages/about.aspx">1,600 wrongfully convicted</a> individuals have been released in the US since 1989; <a href="http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/innocence-and-death-penalty">154 of those innocent individuals</a> have been released from America’s death rows.</p>
<p>As Americans have learned more about the innocent released from death row, they have become increasingly sceptical about the death penalty. <a href="http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/public-opinion-about-death-penalty">Polls</a> document that since the early 2000s Americans have serious concerns about the risk of executing an innocent person. That risk, even more so than lack of deterrence or even racial bias, remains the most powerful reason why individuals oppose the death penalty. Thus, as the public has become more aware of the innocent on death row, support for the death penalty has declined, reaching a 40-year <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/16/decline-in-death-penalty-approval_n_7081800.html">low</a> most recently.</p>
<p>In early June, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/04/north-carolina-pardons-brothers-pardoned-1983-rape-murder-of-girl">Henry McCollum and Leon Brown received pardons</a> for innocence from the governor of North Carolina after their wrongful convictions for the rape and murder of a young girl. Brown spent 10 of his 30 years in prison on North Carolina’s death row while McCollum was on death row for all 30 years. </p>
<p>In a telling twist, Justice Antonin Scalia had used Henry McCollum as the <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/scalias-perfect-capital-punishment-case-falls-apart">exemplar case</a> to justify his pro-death penalty stance two decades earlier. Like Scalia’s argument, support for the death penalty appears to be unravelling.</p>
<p>Death row exonerees, including McCollum and Brown and Melendez, Butler, and Wilhoit, are living witnesses to the damaging effects of the death penalty and the huge risk we take when we give the state the power to punish with death. And while the flaws in our machinery of death are finally receiving overdue attention, the trauma experienced by the innocent who have suffered on America’s death rows is overlooked.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86400/original/image-20150625-13011-19bybxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86400/original/image-20150625-13011-19bybxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86400/original/image-20150625-13011-19bybxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86400/original/image-20150625-13011-19bybxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86400/original/image-20150625-13011-19bybxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86400/original/image-20150625-13011-19bybxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86400/original/image-20150625-13011-19bybxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Henry Lee McCollum spent 30 years on death row in North Carolina before being cleared by DNA evidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/fanega/14968391898/in/photolist-">Pedro</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.unc.edu/%7Efbaum/Innocence/BaumgartnerWesterveltCookPolicyResponses-2013.pdf">A commonly believed myth is that exonerees receive compensation for their years wrongly incarcerated and assistance with reintegration.</a> Yet, <a href="http://www.innocenceproject.org/">our research</a> shows that many – if not most – death row exonerees return to their communities with <a href="http://www.witnesstoinnocence.org/compensation-campaign.html">little to no assistance with re-entry</a>: no job training, no help finding housing, transportation, mental or physical healthcare, no compensation of any kind. </p>
<h2>Turning the tide</h2>
<p>The public often last see exonerees on the day of their exonerations – in the courtroom or outside the prison, embraced by family or friends with tears of joy flowing. We do not see them the day after exoneration when the next leg of their journey begins: the aftermath. They must work to rebuild a life taken from them while also confronting the pain and trauma caused by years of wrongful incarceration and the torment of facing execution.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/books-life-after-death-row-exonerees%E2%80%99-search-community-and-identity">Life after Death Row: Exonerees’ Search for Community and Identity</a>, we published the first systematic study of the aftermath experiences of death row exonerees in the US. </p>
<p>Using in-depth interviews with 18 death row exonerees around the US, we explore their experiences as they return to their communities and families. They emerge into a world quite different from the one they left with limited (if any) resources to find a place to live and limited (if any) job skills to find employment. </p>
<p>They battle with employers over their felony status as their wrongful capital convictions are not automatically expunged. They require, but often do not have access to, medical and mental healthcare to address years of physical and psychological damage. They grieve family and friends lost while they were on death row, relationships lost, time lost. They struggle to manage the lack of trust, anger and depression that has festered as they sat on death row for crimes they did not commit. </p>
<p>Because of these innocent individuals released from America’s death rows, public concern about wrongful capital convictions is growing, which is turning the tide on support for the death penalty in the US. But the plight of those innocent men and women remains a problem in need of attention and solutions to restore the lives taken from them by a system that is broken.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saundra D Westervelt has received funding from the University of North Carolina Greensboro and the American Sociological Association for this research. She is a board member of Witness to Innocence, a non-profit comprised of death row exonerees around the US, and Healing Justice, a restorative justice program that aims to address the aftermath created by a wrongful conviction.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberly Cook is affiliated with the NAACP, LINC (Leading Into New Communities - prisoner reentry program), and Healing Justice Project (a restorative justice program). </span></em></p>More than 150 people have been released from death rows around the US after having their wrongful convictions overturned. Most continue to face social stigma and unemployment.Saundra D Westervelt, Associate Professor Sociology, University of North Carolina – GreensboroKimberly Cook, Professor of Sociology and Criminology, University of North Carolina WilmingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231222014-02-13T00:42:37Z2014-02-13T00:42:37ZGraphic novel versus Taliban: an asylum seeker deterrent?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41363/original/bvbnhxpv-1392204215.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The government is using a graphic novel depicting an asylum seeker's failed journey to Australia as its latest method of deterrence against boat arrivals.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">DIBP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The immigration department has added new contemporary imagery to the growing list of iconic works that surround the vexed issue of asylum seekers. Most Australians can already vividly recall <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/abc_tv/2011/07/leaky-boat-timeline.html">media</a> of the “children overboard” photographs and images from the Tampa in 2001. The latest to be unveiled is a <a href="http://www.customs.gov.au/webdata/resources/files/Storyboard-Afghanistan.pdf">graphic novel</a> depicting a journey from Afghanistan that has a detention camp as its final destination. </p>
<p>In the novel, we see a young Hazara man receiving his parents’ savings, travelling to Pakistan’s Jinnah International Airport and arriving at a port (most likely) in Indonesia. There, he gives his parents’ savings to a people smuggler only to end up in a tent somewhere in the South Pacific. End of graphic novel. </p>
<p>Shortly after then-prime minister Kevin Rudd’s announcement last July of his <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-asylum-in-australia-for-those-arriving-by-boat-rudd-16238">Papua New Guinea “solution”</a> for asylum seekers arriving by boat, the Department for Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC) – now known as the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) – released an image of a young Iranian girl appearing to be in distress at learning she would never be resettled in Australia. </p>
<p>The department <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/outrage-at-creepy-photos-of-distraught-asylum-seekers-20130722-2qe2z.html">said</a> the image was intended to be seen around the world as a warning to other asylum seekers of what may happen to them if they catch a “leaky boat” to Australia. As was <a href="https://theconversation.com/worth-a-thousand-words-the-imagery-of-asylum-seeker-politics-16310">written</a> at the time on The Conversation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The history of Australian asylum seeker policy is studded with iconic if often distressing imagery. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>While the photograph of the Iranian woman was an opportunity capitalised upon, this graphic novel is at a level of sophistication rarely used by DIBP. It is not simply a continuation of government propaganda. This is a well-researched, intelligently considered, emotionally crafted work with powerful graphics and it has a specific audience in mind. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41402/original/n36nwdwc-1392242578.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41402/original/n36nwdwc-1392242578.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41402/original/n36nwdwc-1392242578.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41402/original/n36nwdwc-1392242578.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41402/original/n36nwdwc-1392242578.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41402/original/n36nwdwc-1392242578.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41402/original/n36nwdwc-1392242578.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ‘Iranian woman’ photograph caused much controversy last year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DIAC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The graphic novel presumably targets the Hazaras, an ethnic minority who make up <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2013/03/20/explainer-who-are-hazaras">around 9%</a> of the Afghani population. When the snow melts in Afghanistan and the new fighting season starts in the spring (March/April), the Taliban will assert their position throughout the country. It will be the first season with a reduced foreign troop presence in Afghanistan. </p>
<p>Last week, it was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/04/world/asia/karzai-has-held-secret-contacts-with-the-taliban.html?_r=0">revealed</a> that Afghan president Hamid Karzai was backing away from a deal with the United States and instead was preparing to negotiate with the Taliban. With the rise of the Taliban, the Hazaras are going to be under great threat. They will be looking for safety wherever they can.</p>
<p>This iteration of the Australian government campaign to “stop the boats” began under the previous government. The graphic novel has been on the Customs website since last year, according to a department spokesman. However, having this imagery come to light only recently highlights the low-key nature of the campaign as far as the Australian mainland is concerned. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41406/original/z5fxj42s-1392244210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The graphic novel’s concluding page.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DIBP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To spread its campaign outside our Australian cocoon, a department spokesman told The Conversation that DIBP is:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… using a range of channels and languages, including television, radio and press advertising, social media, other internet-based communication tools such as blogs, as well as direct engagement through community liaison officers.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The photograph of the female asylum seeker, distressed after arriving at a detention centre, was presumably intended for Australian voters in the election campaign. It screamed “we are tough on asylum seekers”.</p>
<p>We can surmise, then, that this current campaign is not directed at Australians, safe inside our secure border. DIBP also points out that the campaign:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… will not be the mainstream advertising undertaken by the previous government, which saw full-page advertisements being taken out in major daily newspapers prior to and during the election campaign at taxpayers’ expense.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We still can, and ought to, ask the critical question. Is this method of graphic campaigning, targeting incoming arrivals in a sophisticated and visually arresting way, equal to an asylum seeker’s fear, panic and desperate need of humanitarian refuge?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phillip George does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The immigration department has added new contemporary imagery to the growing list of iconic works that surround the vexed issue of asylum seekers. Most Australians can already vividly recall media of the…Phillip George, Professor, School of Media Arts, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.