tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/driverless-cars-11740/articlesDriverless cars – The Conversation2024-02-14T13:24:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2142082024-02-14T13:24:58Z2024-02-14T13:24:58ZBringing AI up to speed – autonomous auto racing promises safer driverless cars on the road<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575049/original/file-20240212-18-4epn1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1936%2C1165&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An autonomous race car built by the Technical University of Munich prepares to pass the University of Virginia's entrant.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cavalier Autonomous Racing, University of Virginia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The excitement of auto racing comes from split-second decisions and daring passes by fearless drivers. Imagine that scene, but without the driver – the car alone, guided by the invisible hand of artificial intelligence. Can the rush of racing unfold without a driver steering the course? It turns out that it can. </p>
<p>Enter autonomous racing, a field that’s not just about high-speed competition but also pushing the boundaries of what autonomous vehicles can achieve and improving their safety.</p>
<p>Over a century ago, at the dawn of automobiles, as society shifted from horse-drawn to motor-powered vehicles, there was <a href="https://doi.org/10.4271/890812">public doubt</a> about the safety and reliability of the new technology. Motorsport racing was organized to <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/duryea-motor-wagon-wins-first-car-race-in-u-s">showcase the technological performance</a> and safety of these horseless carriages. Similarly, autonomous racing is the modern arena to prove the reliability of autonomous vehicle technology as driverless cars begin to hit the streets.</p>
<p>Autonomous racing’s high-speed trials mirror the real-world challenges that autonomous vehicles face on streets: adjusting to unexpected changes and reacting in fractions of a second. Mastering these challenges on the track, where speeds are higher and reaction times shorter, leads to safer autonomous vehicles on the road. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Autonomous race cars pass, or ‘overtake,’ others on the Las Vegas Motor Speedway track.</span></figcaption>
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<p>I am a computer science professor who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=bj_imaYAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">studies artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous vehicles</a>, and I lead the <a href="https://autonomousracing.dev/">Cavalier Autonomous Racing</a> team at the University of Virginia. The team competes in the <a href="https://www.indyautonomouschallenge.com/">Indy Autonomous Challenge</a>, a global contest where universities pit fully autonomous Indy race cars against each other. Since its 2021 inception, the event has drawn top international teams to prestigious circuits like the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The field, marked by both rivalry and teamwork, shows that collective problem-solving drives advances in autonomous vehicle safety.</p>
<p>At the Indy Autonomous Challenge passing competition held at the 2024 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January 2024, our Cavalier team clinched second place and hit speeds of 143 mph (230 kilometers per hour) while autonomously overtaking another race car, affirming its status as a leading American team. TUM Autonomous Motorsport from the Technical University of Munich <a href="https://www.indyautonomouschallenge.com/tum-autonomous-motorsports-wins-third-annual-autonomous-challenge-ces">won the event</a>.</p>
<h2>Pint-size beginnings</h2>
<p>The field of autonomous racing didn’t begin with race cars on professional race tracks but with miniature cars at robotics conferences. In 2015, my colleagues and I engineered a 1/10 scale autonomous race car. We transformed a remote-controlled car into a small but powerful research and educational tool, which I named <a href="https://www.f1tenth.racing/">F1tenth</a>, playing on the name of the traditional Formula One, or F1, race car. The F1tenth platform is now used by over 70 institutions worldwide to construct their miniaturized autonomous racers. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://f1tenth.org/">F1tenth Autonomous Racing Grand Prix</a> is now a marquee event at robotics conferences where teams from across the planet gather, each wielding vehicles that are identical in hardware and sensors, to engage in what is essentially an intense “battle of algorithms.” Victory on the track is claimed not by raw power but by the advanced AI algorithms’ control of the cars. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">These race cars are small, but the challenges to autonomous driving are sizable.</span></figcaption>
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<p>F1tenth has also emerged as an engaging and accessible gateway for students to delve into robotics research. Over the years, I’ve reached thousands of students via my <a href="https://youtu.be/ZQg61UNbr7Q?si=Hhx9j_qZyVzOI2Tt">courses</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL868twsx7OjdnroeAUFVBGlKGnFGi9txc">online lecture series</a>, which explains the process of how to build, drive and autonomously race these vehicles.</p>
<h2>Getting real</h2>
<p>Today, the scope of our research has expanded significantly, advancing from small-scale models to <a href="https://www.indyautonomouschallenge.com/racecar">actual autonomous Indy cars</a> that compete at speeds of upward of 150 mph (241 kph), executing complex overtaking maneuvers with other autonomous vehicles on the racetrack. The cars are built on a modified version of the Indy NXT chassis and are outfitted with sensors and controllers to allow autonomous driving. <a href="https://www.dallara.it/en/dallara-usa/racing">Indy NXT race cars</a> are used in professional racing and are slightly smaller versions of the Indy cars made famous by the <a href="https://www.indianapolismotorspeedway.com/events/indy500">Indianapolis 500</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="13 people stand beside a race car in a large empty racing stadium" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575189/original/file-20240213-30-92wlnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Cavalier Autonomous Racing team stands behind their driverless race car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cavalier Autonomous Racing, University of Virginia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>The gritty reality of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/OJITS.2022.3181510">racing these advanced machines on real racetracks</a> pushes the boundaries of what autonomous vehicles can do. Autonomous racing takes the challenges of robotics and AI to new levels, requiring researchers to refine our understanding of how machines perceive their environment, make safe decisions and control complex maneuvers at a high speed where traditional methods begin to falter. </p>
<p>Precision is critical, and the margin for error in steering and acceleration is razor-thin, requiring a sophisticated grasp and exact mathematical description of the car’s <a href="https://proceedings.mlr.press/v229/ning23a.html">movement, aerodynamics and drivetrain system</a>. In addition, autonomous racing researchers create algorithms that use data from cameras, radar and <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/a36190274/what-lidar-is/">lidar</a>, which is like radar but with lasers instead of radio waves, to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/LRA.2022.3193496">steer around competitors and safely navigate</a> the high-speed and unpredictable racing environment. </p>
<p>My team has shared the world’s first <a href="https://registry.opendata.aws/racecar-dataset/">open dataset</a> for autonomous racing, inviting researchers everywhere to join in refining the algorithms that could help define the future of autonomous vehicles.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The data from the competitions is available for other researchers to use.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Crucible for autonomous vehicles</h2>
<p>More than just a technological showcase, autonomous racing is a critical research frontier. When autonomous systems can reliably function in these extreme conditions, they inherently possess a buffer when operating in the ordinary conditions of street traffic. </p>
<p>Autonomous racing is a testbed where competition spurs innovation, collaboration fosters growth, and AI-controlled cars racing to the finish line chart a course toward safer autonomous vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>My research has been funded by National Science Foundation, Commonwealth Cyber Initiative, U.S. Department of Transportation, and Leidos for the period 2018 to 2024. I am also a senior member of Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and an Academic Advisory Council member for the Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE). </span></em></p>Artificial intelligence systems that can handle the pressure of high-speed auto racing could lead to driverless vehicles that can safely manage the morning commute.Madhur Behl, Associate Professor of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201782024-01-03T17:41:19Z2024-01-03T17:41:19ZDriverless cars: stopping dead seems to be a default setting when they encounter a problem — it can cause chaos on roads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567263/original/file-20231222-23-ff5xnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3822%2C2155&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/selfdriving-3d-car-concept-person-steps-2198425187">Gorodenkoff / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While self-driving vehicles are being deployed in numerous cities globally, persistent controversies continue to challenge their deployment. </p>
<p>Recently, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67693935">Tesla recalled more than two million cars</a> after the US regulator found problems with its driver assistance system. Tesla did not agree with the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) analysis, but agreed to add new features.</p>
<p>Tesla’s autopilot system is not fully autonomous, since a human driver has to be present at all times. But autonomous, self-driving cars have already been deployed as driverless taxis, or “robotaxis”, in several US cities, including San Francisco and Phoenix.</p>
<p>Cruise, the robotaxi company owned by General Motors, recently had its <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/cruise-robotaxi-self-driving-permit-revoked-california/">operational license in California suspended</a> after just two months of fare-charging operations. The company <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-halts-self-driving-operations-regulator-safety-fears/">subsequently halted operations</a> across the US and their CEO soon departed. </p>
<p>This followed several high-profile incidents. In October, a Cruise vehicle <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gm-recall-cruise-driverless-vehicles-one-dragged-pedestrian/">dragged a pedestrian</a> to the side of the street after they were hit by another car. As the company’s website explained: “The AV detected a collision, bringing the vehicle to a stop; then attempted to pull over to avoid causing further road safety issues, pulling the individual forward approximately 20 feet.” </p>
<p>But there have also been <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-06-22/san-francisco-robotaxis-interfere-with-firetrucks-los-angeles-is-next">several reported cases</a> of self-driving cars halting in the road, including in cases where emergency vehicles were nearby.</p>
<h2>The halting problem</h2>
<p>These incidents highlight a tendency by self-driving cars to stop in the middle of the road as soon as they encounter perceived problems. As human motorists will know, is not always safe to do so and can cause even bigger problems on the road. </p>
<p>This behaviour by the car’s software goes to the heart of a deeper challenge: how can self-driving cars be designed so that their understanding of driving and behaviour on the road is as good as a humans?</p>
<p>In <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3544548.3581045">our</a> <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3567555">research</a> we brought together our experiences designing self-driving cars at Nissan, with a new approach that uses video to understand driving behaviour. We used video recordings of self-driving cars to understand the mistakes these vehicles make on the road. </p>
<p>As the incidents mentioned previously show, the perception that a self-driving vehicle has of the road is not necessarily the same as a human’s. A self-driving car constructs a simplified picture of the world from sensor data that ignores an enormous amount of detail from the real – social – world. Autonomous driving systems identify the world <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.02711.pdf">through abstract categories</a>, such as cars, bicyclists, pedestrians, trucks and so on. </p>
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<img alt="Cruise driverless car in San Francisco." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567262/original/file-20231222-21-fb8byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567262/original/file-20231222-21-fb8byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567262/original/file-20231222-21-fb8byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567262/original/file-20231222-21-fb8byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567262/original/file-20231222-21-fb8byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567262/original/file-20231222-21-fb8byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567262/original/file-20231222-21-fb8byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cruise has been operating a self-driving taxi service in San Francisco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/san-francisco-ca-usa-october-20-2380046893">Iv-olga / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Every human-shaped blob on the video stream is considered a pedestrian, lacking the differences that human drivers may rely on, such as whether a person is marching in a demonstration, or running after a bus. Our human sight is trained from childhood on and we count on others to see things the same way as we perceive them.</p>
<p>Consider the case of the pedestrian that was dragged along by the robotaxi. In the event that you may hit someone, you may not be able to directly see the person who your car has just hit, but you know that they have not just disappeared. Our sense of object persistence would lead us to stop and check if that person needs medical attention. </p>
<p>Such situations are <a href="https://qz.com/1027139/police-sirens-wind-patterns-and-unknown-unknowns-are-keeping-cars-from-being-fully-autonomous">known in the software industry as “edge cases”</a>: a relatively rare case that is not anticipated by developers. </p>
<p>A fundamental assumption underpinning self-driving cars is that the number of unusual situations is finite. But there are good reasons to think that the real world is not at all finite and that there will always be entirely new, never-before-seen edge cases. </p>
<h2>Nuanced behaviour</h2>
<p>When humans encounter a totally new situation, we use judgement about what to do. We do not just execute the action associated with the “most similar” situation in our memories.</p>
<p>Self-driving cars lack this judgement, and so can either make a guess, or resort to a supposedly neutral or safe solution: stopping. In our video recordings of self-driving cars, their most common behaviour in an unusual situation is to simply halt on the road.</p>
<p>However, stopping in the road might not necessarily be the safest choice, especially if it involves stopping in front of a fire truck. This not only blocks traffic, but it causes a hazard in itself. Our videos contain examples of this “halting” in the most banal of situations – such as a four way stop where a driver is slow in entering the junction, or where a traffic cone has been slightly misplaced. </p>
<p>For human drivers, we can solve such misunderstandings with gestures, the use of the horn, or perhaps even just a glance in a particular direction. Yet driverless cars can do none of these things. Indeed, their continual misunderstandings of human intent mean that basic problems actually arise much more commonly. </p>
<p>While we have serious concerns over the safety of self-driving cars, we are also concerned at how self-driving cars can block and disrupt traffic by their inability to deal with many ordinary traffic situations. </p>
<p><a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3567555">In a recent paper</a> we proposed some potential solutions for designing the motion of self-driving cars so that they can be better understood by other road users. We discussed five basic movement elements: gaps, speed, position, indicating and stopping. </p>
<p>Together, these elements can be combined to make and accept offers with other road users, show urgency, make requests and display preferences.</p>
<p>Whatever the future possibilities of self-driving cars, researchers need to resolve the problems before they are deployed more widely and the same ‘halting’ issues are replicated worldwide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry Brown receives funding from Wallenberg Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Systems and Software Program – Humanities and Social Science (WASP–HS). This article was co-authored with Erik Vinkhuyzen, visiting researcher at King's College London.</span></em></p>Self-driving cars still perceive what’s going on very differently to how humans do.Barry Brown, Professor of Human Computer Interaction, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198322023-12-14T07:19:47Z2023-12-14T07:19:47ZTesla’s recall of 2 million vehicles reminds us how far driverless car AI still has to go<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565486/original/file-20231213-23-nz8gpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6628%2C3726&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/empty-cockpit-vehicle-hudhead-display-digital-589267616">Metamorworks / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tesla has recalled 2 million US vehicles <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-update-software-autopilot-control-issue-2-mln-vehicles-nhtsa-2023-12-13/">over concerns about its autopilot function</a>. Autopilot is meant to help with manoeuvres such as steering and acceleration, but still needs input from the driver. It comes just a few days after a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67591311">whistle-blowing former Tesla employee</a> cast doubt on the safety of the autopilot function. </p>
<p>A simple internet search reveals several reported cases where the cars have made errors in identifying objects on the road. For instance, a Tesla car mistook an image of a <a href="https://jalopnik.com/this-billboard-that-confuses-tesla-autopilot-is-a-good-1846698527">stop sign on a billboard</a> for the real thing and <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/watch-tesla-autopilot-feature-mistakes-moon-for-yellow-traffic-light-2495804#">confused the yellow moon</a> with a yellow traffic light. </p>
<p>There have also been <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cruise-waymo-san-francisco-accident-b2396034.html">numerous recent examples of problems</a> with the “robotaxis” operating in San Francisco. It raises questions about whether the technology that enables vehicles to operate autonomously is ready for the real world.</p>
<p><a href="https://hai.stanford.edu/news/how-ai-making-autonomous-vehicles-safer">The driving force behind self-driving vehicles is artificial intelligence</a> (AI), yet current algorithms lack the human-like understanding and reasoning necessary for context when driving. This includes advanced contextual reasoning for interpreting complex visual cues such as obscured objects, and inferring unseen elements in the environment. </p>
<h2>Social interaction</h2>
<p>Furthermore, these vehicles must be capable of counterfactual reasoning –evaluating hypothetical scenarios and predicting potential outcomes. This is a crucial skill for decision making in dynamic driving situations. </p>
<p>For instance, when an autonomous vehicle (AV) approaches a busy intersection with traffic lights, it must not only obey the current traffic signals but also predict the actions of other road users and consider how those might change under different circumstances. </p>
<p>An example of this scenario is provided by a 2017 accident in which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-self-driving-car-accident-arizona-police-report-2017-3">an Uber robotaxi drove through a yellow light in Arizona in 2017</a> and collided with another car. At the time, there were questions about whether a human driver would have approached the situation differently.</p>
<p>Additionally, social interaction – an area where humans excel and robots falter – is essential. For example, on urban roads with cars parked along both sides, it’s <a href="https://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/17833869.right-way-passing-parked-cars/">not always clear who has the right of way</a> and we use social skills to negotiate a fair way to proceed. </p>
<p>At roundabouts, it’s common for several cars to arrive at once, making it <a href="https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/learning-to-drive/roundabouts/">unclear who has right of way</a>. Again, social skills allow drivers to safely pull onto the roundabout.</p>
<p>To ensure seamless coexistence with AI-driven cars, we urgently need to develop groundbreaking algorithms capable of human-like thinking, social interaction, adaptation to new situations and learning with experience. Such algorithms would enable AI systems to <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2019/predicting-driving-personalities-1118">comprehend nuanced human driver behaviour</a>, react to unforeseen road conditions, prioritise decision making that factors in human values and interact socially with other road users.</p>
<p>As we integrate AI-driven vehicles into existing traffic, the kinds of standards we’ve been using to assess and validate the success of autonomous driving systems will become insufficient. There is a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-house-panel-looks-revive-stalled-self-driving-legislation-sources-2023-07-19/">pressing need for new standards and mechanisms</a> to assess the capabilities of these driverless cars. </p>
<h2>Specific uses</h2>
<p>These new protocols should provide more rigorous testing and validation methods, ensuring that AI-driven vehicles meet the highest standards of safety, performance and interoperability (where AI systems from different manufacturers can work “understand” and work together). In doing so, they will establish a foundation for a safer, more harmonious traffic environment where driverless and human-driven cars mix.</p>
<p>It would be a mistake to write off fully self-driving cars, even without the developments which are needed. There is still a place for them, albeit not as ubiquitously as the rapid spread of Tesla vehicles might indicate. We’ll initially need them for specific uses such as autonomous shuttles and highway driving. Alternatively, they could be used in <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Japan-aims-for-nationwide-autonomous-driving-lanes">special environments with their own dedicated infrastructure</a>. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2019/08/28/steering-autonomous-vehicles-from-curse-to-blessing-via-autonomous-bus-rapid-transit/?sh=66d79eb0232c">autonomous buses could drive a predefined route with a dedicated lane</a>. Autonomous trucks could also have a separate lane on motorways. However, it’s crucial that uses focus on benefiting the entire community, not just a specific – usually wealthy – group in society.</p>
<p>To ensure autonomous vehicles are well integrated on our roads, we’ll need a diverse groups of experts to enter into a dialogue. These include car manufacturers, policymakers, computer scientists, human and social behaviour scientists and engineers and governmental bodies, among others. </p>
<p>They must come together to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-laws-to-safely-roll-out-self-driving-vehicles-across-british-roads">address the current challenges</a>. This collaboration should aim to create a robust framework that accounts for the complexity and variability of real-world driving scenarios. </p>
<p>It would involve <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/self-driving-cars-2662494269">developing industry-wide safety protocols and standards</a>, shaped by input from all people with a stake in the matter and ensuring these standards can evolve as the technology advances. </p>
<p>The collaborative effort would also need to create open channels for sharing data and insights from real-world testing and simulations. It must also foster public trust through transparency and demonstrate the reliability and safety of AI systems in autonomous vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prof Saber Fallah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Autonomous driving technology needs to be able to think and behave more like a human.Prof Saber Fallah, Director of Connected Autonomous Vehicles Lab at the University of Surrey, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133142023-09-27T16:30:33Z2023-09-27T16:30:33ZDriverless cars could be a revolution for people with disabilities – but they also have good reason to be worried<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547584/original/file-20230911-23918-hvi4ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C13%2C8751%2C5768&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-resting-while-her-car-driven-2292590045">Scharfsinn / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Like it or not, driverless cars will start to appear on our roads <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/self-driving-revolution-to-boost-economy-and-improve-road-safety">in the not too distant future</a>. In theory, fully autonomous driverless vehicles will <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gusalexiou/2021/04/11/how-passengers-with-disabilities-can-drive-the-autonomous-vehicle-revolution/">offer huge advantages</a> to people with disabilities. Too often, people with disabilities <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-disability-survey-research-report-june-2021/uk-disability-survey-research-report-june-2021">face multiple problems</a> while using public transport. They often need to rely on friends and relatives for lifts or spend too much of their limited budgets on taxis. </p>
<p>All of these issues <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/disability/bulletins/disabledpeoplesexperienceswithactivitiesgoodsandservicesuk/februarytomarch2022">interfere with the rights of a person</a> with disabilities to go shopping, to travel to work, to attend medical appointments, socialise, or go to entertainment venues. </p>
<p>Also, people with <a href="https://www.gov.uk/browse/driving/disability-health-condition">certain disabilities are not permitted</a> to drive at all, even in adapted vehicles – for example, certain visual disorders may fall into this category, depending on the degree of impairment. This could change, of course, with the advent of driverless cars, which can be used by anyone regardless of their medical condition. </p>
<p>Thousands of individuals in the UK have <a href="https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-12238191/Medical-conditions-likely-cost-drivers-licences.html">impairments that interfere</a> with their ability to drive. Driverless cars could provide door-to-door transportation and will <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2019/06/25/how-self-driving-cars-can-figure-out-parking/">probably be able to self-park</a>. They will allow passengers to read, watch TV, play video games, or sleep in comfort during the ride. </p>
<h2>Gaining independence</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/feb/14/what-disability-accessible-city-look-like">There should be no need</a> for a person with disabilities to worry about uncooperative public transport staff or discrimination from non-disabled fellow travellers. Driverless cars should allow individuals with disabilities to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/automobiles/in-self-driving-cars-a-potential-lifeline-for-the-disabled.html">travel independently</a>, whenever they want and to wherever they want. </p>
<p>Over the past few years, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856418308917?via%3Dihub">we have completed</a> a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1369847819301792?via%3Dihub">number of</a> <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2019-21947-002">studies</a> into what people in the UK who have various types of disability – such as mobility, visual, or intellectual disabilities – think about driverless cars. These studies have also looked into what might prevent individuals with disabilities from welcoming their introduction. Our findings show that similar factors seem to apply to all three forms of disability.</p>
<p>Concerns <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856418308917?via%3Dihub">mentioned by disabled people</a> regarding driverless cars usually involve safety, not being able to understand the technicalities of a driverless car and not being able to board and exit a vehicle – including not being able to escape from a damaged car. They also mention a fear of being stranded, alone and helpless after a collision, and not being able to return home following a breakdown or accident. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man who is a wheelchair user next to his car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547788/original/file-20230912-23-x93l4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547788/original/file-20230912-23-x93l4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547788/original/file-20230912-23-x93l4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547788/original/file-20230912-23-x93l4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547788/original/file-20230912-23-x93l4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547788/original/file-20230912-23-x93l4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547788/original/file-20230912-23-x93l4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-wheelchair-next-his-car-99157583">Edler von Rabenstein / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Disquiet has also been voiced regarding possible equipment failures, software malfunctions, and dangerous and irresponsible driving by other road users. As we move to a driverless future, there will inevitably be a transition period during which both autonomous and conventional vehicles will share highways.</p>
<p>Research shows that a particularly important factor in acceptance of driverless vehicles is the extent of a disabled person’s internal “locus of control”. This refers to the person’s belief in being able to control events and hence to be competent in operating a new technology such as an autonomous vehicle. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1369847819301792?via%3Dihub">low internal locus of control</a> in a person with a disability could be associated with a debilitating fear of having to use a form of transport they haven’t tried before. Research has established that people with a high internal locus of control are considerably more likely to be open to innovative ideas and are more willing to use new technologies.</p>
<h2>Prior knowledge</h2>
<p>Another major determinant of attitudes towards autonomous vehicles that is emerging from our studies is whether a person is prone to <a href="https://www.mind.org.uk/information-support/types-of-mental-health-problems/anxiety-and-panic-attacks/about-anxiety/">“generalised anxiety”</a>. This is a condition that occurs when an individual constantly feels anxious about a wide range of situations and issues rather than about one specific event. People with disabilities are <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17292480/">known to be vulnerable</a> to generalised anxiety and thus can find it difficult to control their worries. </p>
<p>These worries may extend to fears regarding the safety of new transportation methods. Our third major finding concerned the critical role of a disabled person’s <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2019-21947-002">prior knowledge of driverless cars</a>. People with disabilities are exposed to information about autonomous vehicles via television programmes, newspapers and magazine articles. But they also learn more about them through conversations with relatives, workmates or friends. </p>
<p>We found that prior knowledge often made people with disabilities more confident around driverless cars. But some of the group with prior knowledge had also decided that they disliked them.</p>
<p>So, what can be done to facilitate the introduction of driverless cars among people with disabilities? From the perspective of manufacturers and advocates, social marketing campaigns will be required both to demonstrate the minimal effort required to control a driverless vehicle and to emphasise the independence, freedom to travel, convenience, and safety.</p>
<p>Support from government agencies, charities, and other non-profit disability organisations will be crucial for those campaigns to work, considering that advertisements from the commercial manufacturers of driverless cars might not be trusted by those with disabilities. Given the <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2019-21947-002">importance of prior knowledge</a> when it comes to being happy about using an autonomous vehicle, favourable information about driverless cars will be crucial to convincing people with disabilities of the advantages of this new technology. </p>
<p>For those wishing to emphasise the benefits, careful market research will be necessary to formulate the messages most likely to appeal to disabled communities. “I can do it” messages, which demonstrate how easily a disabled person will be able to understand and operate a driverless car, will have to be incorporated into information campaigns.</p>
<p>But the path to acceptance will become smoother the sooner there is meaningful dialogue between manufacturers, government departments and disability support organisations on the best ways to design autonomous vehicles that are suitable for people with disabilities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People with disabilities are concerned about breaking down or having accidents when alone in driverless cars.Rohini Vijaygopal, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, The Open UniversityRita Kottasz, Associate Professor of Marketing, Kingston UniversityRoger Bennett, Visiting Professor of Marketing, Kingston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067012023-06-08T11:44:40Z2023-06-08T11:44:40ZHow the UK is getting AI regulation right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530101/original/file-20230605-15-wc0auf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=722%2C0%2C5505%2C3720&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Regulation must protect AI innovation while addressing risks, but what's the right balance?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-holding-hologram-projection-displaying-biometric-1341188609">ra2 studio / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest generation of artificial intelligence (AI), such as ChatGPT, will revolutionise the way we <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/deborahlovich/2023/03/22/how-exactly-will-chatgpt-change-work/">live</a> and <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/13/will-chatgpt-change-way-think-work/">work</a>. AI technologies could significantly <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2022/02/23/ai-for-social-protection-mind-the-people/">improve</a> education, healthcare, transport and welfare. But there are downsides, too: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/business/jobs-protections-artificial-intelligence.html">jobs automated out of existence</a>, <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/09/17/global-expansion-of-ai-surveillance-pub-79847">surveillance abuses</a>, and <a href="https://rm.coe.int/discrimination-artificial-intelligence-and-algorithmic-decision-making/1680925d73">discrimination</a>, including in <a href="https://hbr.org/2022/03/why-ai-failed-to-live-up-to-its-potential-during-the-pandemic">healthcare</a> and <a href="https://www.fairtrials.org/articles/news/fair-trials-tool-shows-how-predictive-policing-discriminates-and-unjustly-criminalises-people">policing</a>. </p>
<p>There’s general agreement that AI needs to be regulated, given its awesome potential for good and harm. The EU has proposed one approach, based on potential problems. The UK is proposing a different, <a href="https://www2.datainnovation.org/2021-aia-costs.pdf">pro-business</a>, approach. </p>
<p>This year, the UK government published a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-regulation-a-pro-innovation-approach/white-paper#fn:70">white paper</a> (a policy document setting out plans for future legislation) unveiling how it intends to regulate AI, with an emphasis on flexibility to avoid <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a5970b6c-e731-45a7-b75b-721e90e32e1c">stifling innovation</a>. The document favours voluntary compliance, with five principles meant to tackle AI risks. </p>
<p>Strict enforcement of these principles by regulators could be added later if it’s required. But is such an approach too lenient given the risks?</p>
<h2>Crucial components</h2>
<p>The UK approach differs from the EU’s risk-based regulation. The <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_2019/plmrep/COMMITTEES/CJ40/DV/2023/05-11/ConsolidatedCA_IMCOLIBE_AI_ACT_EN.pdf">EU’s proposed AI Act</a> prohibits certain AI uses, such as <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/05/eu-ban-on-most-harmful-use-of-ai-moves-a-step-closer/">live facial recognition technology</a>, where people shown on a camera feed are compared against police “watch lists”, in public spaces. </p>
<p>The EU approach creates <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3896852">stringent standards</a> for so-called <a href="https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/6305e5d52c28356b4fe71bac/638f76ec2912fe0355a3850e_Holistic-AI-Whitepaper-High-Risk-AI-Systems-Compressed.pdf">high-risk AI systems</a>. These include systems used to evaluate job applications, student admissions, eligibility for loans and public services.</p>
<p>I believe the UK’s approach better balances AI’s risks and benefits, fostering innovation that benefits the economy and society. However, critical challenges need to be addressed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Facial recognition in a crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530036/original/file-20230605-19-10occ9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530036/original/file-20230605-19-10occ9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530036/original/file-20230605-19-10occ9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530036/original/file-20230605-19-10occ9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530036/original/file-20230605-19-10occ9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530036/original/file-20230605-19-10occ9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530036/original/file-20230605-19-10occ9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The EU’s AI Act would prohibit live face recognition by police forces in public spaces.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cctv-ai-facial-recognition-camera-zoom-2198446519">Gorodenkoff / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK approach to AI regulation has three crucial components. First, it relies on existing legal frameworks such as privacy, data protection and product liability laws, rather than implementing new <a href="https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-039-2427?transitionType=Default&contextData=%28sc.Default%29">AI-centred legislation</a>. </p>
<p>Second, five general principles – each consisting of several components – would be applied by regulators in conjunction with existing laws. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-unveils-world-leading-approach-to-innovation-in-first-artificial-intelligence-white-paper-to-turbocharge-growth#:%7E:text=Five%20principles%2C%20including%20safety%2C%20transparency,trust%20in%20this%20revolutionary%20technology.">These principles</a> are (1) “safety, security and robustness”, (2) “appropriate transparency and explainability”, (3) “fairness”, (4) “accountability and governance”, and (5) “contestability and redress”. </p>
<p>During initial implementation, regulators would not be legally required to enforce the principles. A statute imposing these obligations would be enacted later, if considered necessary. Organisations would therefore be expected to comply with the principles voluntarily in the first instance.</p>
<p>Third, regulators could adapt the five principles to the subjects they cover, with support from a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1147045/uk_ai_regulation_impact_assessment.pdf">central coordinating body</a>. So, there will not be a single enforcement authority.</p>
<h2>Promising approach?</h2>
<p>The UK’s regime is promising for three reasons. First, it promises to use evidence about AI in its correct context, rather than applying an example from one area to another inappropriately. </p>
<p>Second, it is designed so that rules can be easily tailored to the requirements of AI used in different areas of everyday life. Third, there are advantages to its decentralised approach. For example, a single regulatory organisation, were it to underperform, would affect AI use across the board.</p>
<p>Let’s look at how it would use evidence about AI. As AI’s risks are yet to be fully understood, predicting future problems involves guesswork. To fill the gap, evidence with no relevance to a specific use of AI could be appropriated to propose drastic and inappropriate regulatory solutions.</p>
<p>For instance, some US internet companies use algorithms to <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.11491.pdf">determine a person’s sex</a> based on facial features. These showed poor performance when presented with photos of <a href="https://proceedings.mlr.press/v81/buolamwini18a/buolamwini18a.pdf">darker-skinned women</a>. </p>
<p>This finding has been cited in support of a <a href="https://www.adalovelaceinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/The-Ryder-Review-Independent-legal-review-of-the-governance-of-biometric-data-in-England-and-Wales-Ada-Lovelace-Institute-June-2022.pdf">ban on law enforcement use of face recognition technology</a> in the UK. However, the two areas are quite different and problems with gender classification do not imply a similar issue with facial recognition in law enforcement.</p>
<p>These US gender algorithms work under relatively lower legal standards. Face recognition used by UK law enforcement undergoes <a href="https://theconversation.com/facial-recognition-why-we-shouldnt-ban-the-police-from-using-it-altogether-193895">rigorous testing</a>, and is deployed under <a href="https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/R-Bridges-v-CC-South-Wales-ors-Judgment.pdf">strict legal requirements</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Driverless car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530040/original/file-20230605-23-64ny45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530040/original/file-20230605-23-64ny45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530040/original/file-20230605-23-64ny45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530040/original/file-20230605-23-64ny45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530040/original/file-20230605-23-64ny45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530040/original/file-20230605-23-64ny45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530040/original/file-20230605-23-64ny45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some AI applications, such as driverless cars, could fall under more than one regulatory regime.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-autonomous-driving-test-vehicle-251998009">riopatuca / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another advantage of the UK approach is its <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=653781">adaptability</a>. It can be difficult to predict potential risks, particularly with <a href="https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/General-Purpose-AI-and-the-AI-Act.pdf">AI that could be appropriated for purposes other than the ones foreseen by its developers</a> and machine learning systems, which improve in their performance over time.</p>
<p>The framework allows regulators to quickly address risks as they arise, avoiding lengthy debates in parliament. Responsibilities would be spread between different organisations. Centralising AI oversight under a single national regulator could lead to inefficient enforcement. </p>
<p>Regulators with expertise in specific areas such as transport, aviation, and financial markets are <a href="https://www2.datainnovation.org/2019-ftc-competition-consumer-protection.pdf">better suited</a> to regulate the use of AI within their fields of interest. </p>
<p>This decentralised approach could minimise the effects of corruption, of regulators becoming preoccupied with concerns other than the public interest and differing approaches to enforcement. It also avoids a single point of enforcement failure.</p>
<h2>Enforcement and coordination</h2>
<p>Some businesses could resist voluntary standards, so, if and when regulators are granted enforcement powers, they should be able to issue fines. The public should also have the right to seek compensation for harms caused by AI systems.</p>
<p>Enforcement needn’t undermine flexibility. Regulators can still tighten or loosen standards as required. However, the UK framework could encounter difficulties where AI systems fall under the jurisdiction of multiple regulators, resulting in overlaps. For example, transport, insurance, and data protection authorities could all issue conflicting guidelines for self-driving cars. </p>
<p>To tackle this, the white paper suggests establishing a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1147045/uk_ai_regulation_impact_assessment.pdf">central body</a>, which would ensure the harmonious implementation of guidance. It’s vital to compel the different regulators to consult this organisation rather than leaving the decision up to them.</p>
<p>The UK approach shows promise for fostering innovation and addressing risks. But to strengthen the country’s position as a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/edstacey/2022/02/16/achieving-the-national-ai-strategy-of-making-the-uk-a-global-science-superpower-will-require-the-creation-and-nurturing-of-an-ai-and-data-ecosystem/">leader</a> in the area, the framework must be aligned with regulation elsewhere, especially the EU.</p>
<p>Fine-tuning the framework can enhance legal certainty for businesses and bolster public trust. It will also foster international confidence in the UK’s system of regulation for this transformative technology.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Asress Adimi Gikay does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With fine-tuning, the approach correctly balances the risks with the need to encourage innovation.Asress Adimi Gikay, Senior Lecturer in AI, Disruptive Innovation and Law, Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2010882023-03-23T01:45:34Z2023-03-23T01:45:34ZWe were told we’d be riding in self-driving cars by now. What happened to the promised revolution?<p>According to <a href="https://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-drops-prediction-full-autonomous-driving-from-3-years-to-2/">predictions</a> <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/lyfts-president-says-car-ownership-will-all-but-end-by-2025">made</a> nearly a decade ago, we should be riding around in self-driving vehicles today. It’s now clear the autonomous vehicle revolution was overhyped. </p>
<p>Proponents woefully underestimated the technological challenges. It turns out developing a truly driverless vehicle is hard. </p>
<p>The other factor driving the hype was the amount of money being invested in autonomous vehicle startups. By 2021, it was estimated more than <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/02/04/self-driving-cars-why/">US$100 billion</a> in venture capital had gone into developing the technology. </p>
<p>While advances are being made, it is important to understand there are multiple levels of autonomy. Only one is truly driverless. As established by <a href="https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update">SAE International</a>, the levels are: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>level 0 — the driver has to undertake all driving tasks</p></li>
<li><p>level 1, hands on/shared control — vehicle has basic driver-assist features such as cruise control and lane-keeping</p></li>
<li><p>level 2, hands off – vehicle has advanced driver-assist features such as emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, auto park assist and traffic-jam assist</p></li>
<li><p>level 3, eyes off — vehicle drives itself some of the time</p></li>
<li><p>level 4, mind off — vehicle drives itself most of the time</p></li>
<li><p>level 5, steering wheel option — vehicle drives itself all the time.</p></li>
</ul>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>Why the slow progress?</h2>
<p>It’s estimated the technology to deliver safe autonomous vehicles is about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/27/how-self-driving-cars-got-stuck-in-the-slow-lane">80% developed</a>. The last 20% is increasingly difficult. It will take a lot more time to perfect.</p>
<p>Challenges yet to be resolved involve unusual and rare events that can happen along any street or highway. They include weather, wildlife crossing the road, and highway construction. </p>
<p>Another set of problems has emerged since <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmainwaring/2022/08/22/cruise-ride-hailing-goes-green-and-driverless/?sh=6a7439376843">Cruise</a> and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/19/23467784/waymo-provide-fully-driverless-rides-san-francisco-california">Waymo</a> launched their autonomous ride-hailing services in San Francisco. The US National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/16/cruises-autonomous-driving-tech-comes-under-scrutiny-from-safety-regulators/">opened an investigation</a> in December 2022, only six months after the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/03/california-driverless-taxi-cars-san-francisco">services were approved</a>. It cited incidents where these vehicles “may have engaged in inappropriately hard braking or became immobilized”. </p>
<p>The San Francisco County Transportation Authority <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/technology/self-driving-taxi-san-francisco.html">stated</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[I]n the months since the initial approval of autonomous taxi services in June 2022, Cruise AVs have made unplanned and unexpected stops in travel lanes, where they obstruct traffic and transit service and intrude into active emergency response scenes, including fire suppression scenes, creating additional hazardous conditions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In several cases, Cruise technicians had to be called to move the vehicles.</p>
<h2>What’s happening now?</h2>
<p>Active autonomous vehicle initiatives can be grouped into two categories: ride-hailing services (Cruise, Waymo and Uber) and sales to the public (Tesla). </p>
<p>Cruise is a subsidiary of General Motors founded in 2013. As of September 2022, it operated 100 robotaxis in San Francisco and had plans to increase its fleet to 5,000. Critics said this would increase city traffic. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1638001216935297025"}"></div></p>
<p>Cruise also began to offer services in Chandler (a Phoenix suburb), Arizona, and Austin, Texas, in December 2022. </p>
<p>Waymo, formerly the Google Self-Driving Car Project, was founded in January 2009. The company lost <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/11/23453262/waymo-av-driverless-taxi-phoenix-california-dmv-progress">US$4.8 billion in 2020 and US$5.2 billion in 2021</a>. </p>
<p>Waymo One provides autonomous ride-hailing services in <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/28/23617278/waymo-self-driving-driverless-crashes-av">Phoenix as well as San Francisco</a>. It plans to expand into <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/19/23410677/waymo-los-angeles-autonomous-robotaxi-service-launch">Los Angeles</a> this year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">Driverless cars: what we've learned from experiments in San Francisco and Phoenix</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Uber was a major force in autonomous vehicle development as part of its business plan was to replace human drivers. However, it ran into problems, including a crash in March 2018 when a self-driving Uber killed a woman walking her bicycle across a street in Tempe, Arizona. In 2020, Arizona Uber sold its AV research division to Aurora Innovation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-self-driving-cars-crash-whos-responsible-courts-and-insurers-need-to-know-whats-inside-the-black-box-180334">When self-driving cars crash, who's responsible? Courts and insurers need to know what's inside the 'black box'</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But in October 2022 Uber got back into autonomous vehicles by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2022/10/06/motional-and-uber-announce-10-year-deal-to-deploy-automated-vehicles-in-multiple-us-markets/?sh=44d83a84273e">signing a deal</a> with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv. Motional will provide autonomous vehicles for Uber’s ride-hailing and delivery services.</p>
<p>Lyft, the second-largest ride-sharing company after Uber, operates in the US and Canada. Like Uber, Lyft had a self-driving unit and in 2016, Lyft co-founder John Zimmer <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/lyfts-president-says-car-ownership-will-all-but-end-by-2025">predicted</a> that by 2021 the majority of rides on its network would be in such vehicles (and private car ownership would “all but end” by 2025). It didn’t happen. By 2021, Lyft had also <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/26/lyft-sells-self-driving-unit-to-toyotas-woven-planet-for-550m/">sold its self-driving vehicle unit</a>, to Toyota. </p>
<p>In 2022, Zimmer <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/20/lyft-co-founder-says-autonomous-vehicles-wont-replace-drivers-for-at-least-a-decade/">said</a> the technology would not replace drivers for at least a decade. However, Lyft did partner with Motional in August 2022 to launch <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lyft-and-motional-deliver-the-first-rides-in-motionals-new-all-electric-ioniq-5-autonomous-vehicle-301606519.html">robotaxis in Las Vegas</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lyft-motional-launch-robotaxi-service-los-angeles-2022-11-17/">Los Angeles</a>. </p>
<p>Telsa is the <a href="https://www.ev-volumes.com/">world leader in sales</a> of battery electric vehicles. It also purports to sell vehicles with full automation. However, by the end of 2022, no level 3, 4 or 5 vehicles were for sale in the United States.</p>
<p>What Telsa offers is a full self-driving system as a US$15,000 option. Buyers acknowledge they are buying a beta version and assume all risks. If the system malfunctions, Telsa does not accept any responsibility. </p>
<p>In February 2023, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/16/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-cars">found</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[Fully self-driving] beta software that allows a vehicle to exceed speed limits or travel through intersections in an unlawful or unpredictable manner increases the risk of a crash. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This led to Tesla <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/16/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-cars">recalling 362,000 vehicles</a> to update the software. </p>
<p>Another setback for autonomous vehicle sales to the public was the October 2022 announcement that Ford and VW had decided to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/26/ford-vw-backed-argo-ai-is-shutting-down/">stop funding autonomous driving technology company Argo AI</a>, resulting in its closure. Both Ford and VW decided to shift their focus from level 4 automation to levels 2 and 3.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-are-still-a-long-way-off-here-are-three-reasons-why-159234">'Self-driving' cars are still a long way off. Here are three reasons why</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1637944716321849346"}"></div></p>
<h2>So, what can we expect next?</h2>
<p>Autonomous vehicle development will continue, but with less hype. It’s being recognised as more an evolutionary process than a revolutionary one. The increasing cost of capital will also make it harder for autonomous vehicle startups to get development funds. </p>
<p>The areas that appear to be making the best progress are autonomous ride-hailing and heavy vehicles. Self-driving car sales to the public are <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/level-4-self-driving-technology-mercedes-benz/">further down the track</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil G Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council Linkage Program. </span></em></p>The autonomous vehicle revolution was, according to its proponents, meant to have transformed daily travel by now. But they underestimated the task of developing a safe, truly driverless vehicle.Neil G Sipe, Honorary Professor of Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2001592023-02-26T15:05:41Z2023-02-26T15:05:41ZCompanies oversell the self-driving capabilities of their cars, with horrific outcomes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511820/original/file-20230222-27-v0xg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C2995%2C1706&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tesla recalled hundreds of thousands of its vehicles because of issues with their self-driving features.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jay Janner/Austin American-Statesman via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-news-about-toronto-mayor-john-tory-s-affair-destroyed-his-carefully-cultivated-public-image" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In mid-February, Tesla announced the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/tesla-recalls-362758-vehicles-says-full-self-driving-beta-software-may-cause-crashes.html">recall of over 350,000 vehicles</a> — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-system-canada-1.6751370">more than 20,000 in Canada </a> — due to a problem with its “<a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_eu/support/autopilot">Full Self-Driving Capability</a>” system. This self-driving feature was found to possibly cause vehicles to misbehave when entering intersections or exceed the speed limits, posing a risk for safety.</p>
<p>This is just another instance of vehicles equipped with automated driving technology falling short of their safety expectations. In September 2022, <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/tesla-driver-appears-to-be-asleep-going-more-than-100-km-h-on-busy-ontario-highway-1.6053530">a driver on the Queen Elizabeth Way near St. Catharines, Ont.,</a> was caught asleep at the wheel of a Tesla. The vehicle appeared to be operated by a semi-automated system with no monitoring from the driver, which is in direct violation of the <a href="https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/levels-of-autonomous-driving-explained">requirements for these systems</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WRmGa6A25Lg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Inside Edition reports on two recent deadly crashes involving Teslas.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Numerous incidents involving Teslas have been <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/02/06/video-shows-tesla-driver-apparently-asleep-at-the-wheel/">reported</a> <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/tesla-driver-appears-to-be-asleep-as-car-goes-over-100-km-h-on-qew-1.6053558">recently</a>. These incidents occurred so frequently that the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-agency-working-really-fast-nhtsa-autopilot-probe-2023-01-09/">started a formal investigation in August 2021</a>.</p>
<p>Early data show that in a 12-month period, 367 crashes were reported involving semi-automated systems. Of these, 273 crashes alone involved Tesla vehicles. While these numbers are far lower than those involving <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-traffic-fatalities">all road vehicles</a>, they at least question these systems’ purported safety.</p>
<h2>Driver misconceptions</h2>
<p>Human factors research is <a href="https://www.hslab.org/research">a cross-disciplinary field of study</a> that draws from psychology, engineering and kinesiology. Applying this approach to analyzing and understanding the Tesla crashes reveals that there are several issues contributing to these incidents. </p>
<p>For years, the automotive industry has hinted at the fact that <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/27/elon-musk-is-being-investigated-by-the-sec-for-tesla-self-driving-claims/">these systems may be more capable than they actually are</a>. For example, referring to these systems with <a href="https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/adas-technology-naming">misleading names</a> — like “autopilot” or “self-driving” — may cause drivers to believe a car can drive without human interventions, while in fact it cannot. </p>
<p>Research also revealed that, when purchasing a new vehicle, about a quarter of drivers never receive any information about the assistance systems available on their vehicle from the dealership. One study found that of the customers that received assistance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100103">only nine per cent were able to test drive the systems before taking the car home</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a driver in a car looking at a phone while their laptop is on their lap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511826/original/file-20230222-22-79i90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research shows that drivers rely on self-driving features when they believe the road conditions are easy enough for the car to handle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These issues ultimately lead to drivers forming <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1064804620982711">incorrect assumptions of the car’s capabilities</a>. This, in turn, leads drivers to using these vehicles believing that they are more advanced and autonomous than they actually are.</p>
<p>Misconceptions about these systems’ capabilities are more likely to lead to unsafe behaviours when drivers believe the road and traffic conditions are uneventful enough for the system to handle. </p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/windsor-university-study-distracted-driving-1.6715465">ongoing study that is among the first in Canada</a>, our research shows that some drivers may “tune out” when operating these vehicles on seemingly uneventful roads with long straight stretches with relatively low traffic volumes. This is because drivers may be inclined to believe that these systems are sufficiently advanced to handle such simple driving tasks.</p>
<h2>Regulating self-driving systems</h2>
<p>Research has pointed at the unintended consequences of these vehicles for years, identifying how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">human and technological factors interact with semi-automated systems</a>, with lethal consequences. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ccmta.ca/web/default/files/PDF/Canadian%20Jurisdictional%20Guidelines%20%20for%20the%20Safe%20%20Testing%20and%20Deployment%20%20of%20Vehicles%20%20Equipped%20with%20Automated%20%20Driving%20Systems%20Version%202.0.pdf">In Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sec-probe-elon-musk-link-self-driving-tesla-claims_n_63d493eae4b01e92886b04cd">abroad</a>, governments are now starting to reckon with the sometimes dystopian reality of these vehicles. And they have recognized the need to advance legislative frameworks for the safe deployment and efficient regulation of these systems.</p>
<p>With the Tesla crashes, we are witnessing a push to introduce new technologies for no other reason than its availability, regardless of the impact. We have seen this in other areas, such as aviation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/human-centred-design-can-help-reduce-accidents-like-the-recent-ethiopian-airlines-boeing-737-crash-113987">Human-centred design can help reduce accidents like the recent Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 crash</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Since 2014, <a href="https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-cars">Elon Musk has promised the arrival of self-driving cars</a>. But they are not here yet. So, with this in mind, what can drivers do? </p>
<p>First, they need to be aware that none of the vehicles on the market today are actually self-driving, regardless of how pricey or advanced they seem — vehicles still require active supervision from a human driver. </p>
<p>Which means that eyes ought to stay on the road, hands must stay on the steering wheel and, more importantly, attention must be paid to the surrounding traffic and road environment at all times.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Biondi receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and the federal government.</span></em></p>Consumers need to be aware that none of the vehicles on the market today are actually self-driving — vehicles still require active supervision from a human driver.Francesco Biondi, Associate Professor, Human Systems Labs, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993192023-02-24T17:19:45Z2023-02-24T17:19:45ZDriverless cars: what we’ve learned from experiments in San Francisco and Phoenix<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511448/original/file-20230221-946-rzwh9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C175%2C3790%2C2082&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cruise, owned by General Motors, is one of the "robotaxi" companies operating in San Francisco.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/3355-19th-ave-san-francisco-ca-1576063105">Shutterstock / paulaah293</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Residents of San Francisco and Phoenix have grown used to witnessing something that, a decade ago, would have seemed magical. In some parts of these cities, at certain times, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/03/california-driverless-taxi-cars-san-francisco">cars drive by with nobody behind the wheel</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-63077437">Driverless “robotaxi” services pick up customers</a> and ferry them to their destinations with the help of cameras, sensors and software that uses artificial intelligence. Tests of fully driverless vehicles have been under way <a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/11/fully-driverless-cars-are-here/">in Phoenix</a> since 2017 <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/09/gms-cruise-begins-testing-autonomous-vehicles-without-human-drivers-in-san-francisco.html">and in San Francisco</a> since 2020.</p>
<p>Excitable videos posted online show customers embracing the novelty. But new possibilities bring new questions. While these real-world experiments are limited in scope, they could help decide the future of road transport everywhere. It’s vital that lessons are learned and the results opened to scrutiny.</p>
<p>A few years ago, when hype surrounding self-driving cars was huge, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2937316">some high-profile crashes</a> brought attention to the ethics of experimenting with new technologies in public spaces. </p>
<p>US states encouraged experimentation by dropping regulatory barriers, with cities, citizens and transport policymakers having little say. After a period of testing with safety drivers, some cars are now fully driverless. </p>
<p>While the companies learn to drive safely in complex environments, San Francisco and Phoenix are learning whether the technology is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/san-francisco-looks-hit-brakes-self-driving-cars-rcna66204">creating more problems than it promises to solve</a>.</p>
<p>Cruise (owned by General Motors) is now operating 30 driverless cars at night in all but the busiest parts of San Francisco. Just before Christmas, the company said it wanted to add more cars, operate during the day, and move into the city’s busiest downtown area. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1521554237037023232"}"></div></p>
<p>But San Francisco’s <a href="https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2023/01/2023.01.25_ccsf_23.0125_cpuc_cruise_tier_2_advice_letter_protest_002.pdf">transportation authority raised objections</a>. In the last year, Cruise cars have been involved in a number of incidents that, while not directly life-threatening, were really annoying for a city trying to go about its business. </p>
<p>A Cruise car with nobody inside was <a href="https://gizmodo.com/san-francisco-cruise-self-driving-car-police-1848777469">pulled over by police officers</a>, who were unsure what to do. To the amusement of people filming, the car then pulled away from the confused cops. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A Cruise driverless taxi pulls away from police in San Francisco.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Cruise cars have also frustrated the city’s fire department by blocking fire trucks and driving towards hoses. In one case, <a href="https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2023/01/2023.01.25_ccsf_23.0125_cpuc_cruise_tier_2_advice_letter_protest_002.pdf">firefighters were forced to smash a car’s windscreen</a> to get it to stop. The cars have impeded local buses, blocked junctions and stopped in the middle of the road, sometimes in groups. </p>
<p>Some incidents would have counted as everyday snarl-ups if a human was behind the wheel, but the absence of anyone in the car to take responsibility has made it hard for city authorities to know what to do.</p>
<h2>The streets of San Francisco</h2>
<p>In almost all cases, we only know about incidents because of online videos or reports by local people. There are few duties on the companies to report performance or admit their foibles. </p>
<p>These incidents, and the absence of accountability, are clearly trying the patience of San Francisco’s transport planners. Rather than a free-for-all, they would like to see what they call “limited deployments with incremental expansions” so that impacts can be assessed carefully. </p>
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<img alt="Waymo car" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511446/original/file-20230221-16-cpv20g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C0%2C5418%2C3634&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511446/original/file-20230221-16-cpv20g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511446/original/file-20230221-16-cpv20g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511446/original/file-20230221-16-cpv20g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511446/original/file-20230221-16-cpv20g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511446/original/file-20230221-16-cpv20g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511446/original/file-20230221-16-cpv20g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Self-driving car company Waymo is owned by Google.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/september-27-2018-sunnyvale-ca-usa-1190049946">Shutterstock / Sundry Photography</a></span>
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<p>They would also like to keep driverless cars out of the city’s busiest downtown core – and, crucially, want to see more data-sharing. This would make the self-driving experiment more democratic, but cuts against the grain of the Silicon Valley approach to <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/04/blitzscaling">“blitzscaling”</a> – growing rapidly to establish a monopoly.</p>
<p>Self-driving car companies would argue that the more cars they have and the more complex their environments, the quicker they can learn to drive. This argument is premised on the idea that robot drivers are just like human drivers, but better. In reality, self-driving cars <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/03063127211038752">are not “autonomous vehicles”</a>, as is often claimed. </p>
<p>They rely on digital and physical infrastructures that support their operation, as well as teams of humans behind the scenes doing the data-labelling, remote operation and customer support that is needed to make them appear “driverless”. These cars work best in car-friendly areas where pedestrians and other road users behave predictably. </p>
<h2>Changing the rules</h2>
<p>Even if driverless cars avoid the errors that humans make when drunk or distracted, they make different sorts of mistakes. New modes of transport do not just add another player to the game; they change the rules. When cars arrived in cities in the early 20th century, <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262516129/fighting-traffic/">pedestrians were persuaded or bullied out of the way</a> and infrastructures were remade to suit the new technology. </p>
<p>In the 21st century, many cities were spooked by the rapid disruptions wrought by ride-hail companies such as Uber and Lyft. We must avoid sleepwalking into something similar. For self-driving cars, we need a clear sense of the trade-offs. </p>
<p>There may eventually be safety benefits. But in making life easier for self-driving cars and the few people likely to benefit, we might make life harder for everyone else. </p>
<p>Competition for roadspace in dense cities is tight. As <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90846919/self-driving-cars-would-be-a-climate-disaster">transport policy expert David Zipper has argued</a>, most cities want to see fewer car trips overall, and more shared transit and physically active travel such as walking and cycling. </p>
<p>Self-driving cars could be a problem for sustainability. The more we learn from real-world uses of the technology, the greater seems the mismatch between its purported solutions and the problems facing cities.</p>
<p>The UK is less in thrall to tech companies, which provides an opportunity for a more measured discussion. In 2022, I was part of a <a href="https://driverless-futures.com/2022/08/30/cdei-report-on-responsible-innovation-in-self-driving-vehicles/">team led by the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation</a> asking what a more responsible approach to self-driving vehicle innovation would be. We advised on safety, data-sharing, transparency and ensuring that the benefits are evenly spread. </p>
<p>As self-driving cars expand to more places, the social learning that happens around them will be just as important as the machine learning that drives their computers. The experiment is taking place in public, so we must ensure that its lessons are not kept private.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Stilgoe receives funding from the ESRC, the Turing Institute and the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation. He is a fellow of the Turing institute and a trustee of the Royal Institution. </span></em></p>Trials in US cities of self-driving taxis could have implications for road users around the world.Jack Stilgoe, Professor of Science and Technology Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1852412022-06-16T20:48:49Z2022-06-16T20:48:49ZDrivers of self-driving cars can rely too much on autopilot, and that’s a recipe for disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469278/original/file-20220616-12-ui495k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2995%2C2290&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A recent investigation revealed that the autopilot in Tesla vehicles would switch off when a collision is imminent.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David Zalubowsi, File)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We were promised a very near future where autonomous machines would be serving our needs and vehicle ownership would be rendered unnecessary: robots would quickly and efficiently deliver our orders and <a href="https://theconversation.com/autonomous-vehicles-could-help-millions-of-people-catch-up-on-sleep-tv-and-work-89603">we could squeeze in a few more hours of work or sleep while being chauffeured around in self-driving cars</a>.</p>
<p>Progress has been made, at least, on some of this. University campuses and cities across North America have indeed witnessed the growing presence of <a href="https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/local/tempe/2020/09/12/autonomous-food-delivery-robots-roll-out-asus-tempe-campus/5781886002/">small food-delivery robots</a>. Likewise, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/7/23156674/waymo-via-uber-freight-autonomous-truck-deal">new partnerships have recently been announced</a> to develop and test the safety of self-driving trucks.</p>
<p>The journey toward autonomous or self-driving consumer cars, on the other hand, has arguably come to a screeching halt. In 2021, top industry experts recognized that developing safe autonomous driving systems was not as simple as it was anticipated. Among them, Elon Musk himself conceded that developing the technology required to deliver safe self-driving cars has proved harder that he thought.</p>
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<h2>Automation paradox</h2>
<p>More bad news came this week when the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released numbers that showed <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-order-crash-reporting">Tesla vehicles being responsible for nearly 70 per cent of the crashes</a> involving so-called SAE Level 2 cars. </p>
<p>Some cars are completely autonomous and are capable of driving without any input from the human driver. For example, Waymo One, in Phoenix, Ariz., is a ride-hailing service that currently deploys <a href="https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/waymo-one-autonomous-vehicle-first-ride/">autonomous cars on a test route</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update">SAE Level 2 autonomous systems</a>, like Tesla Autopilot, require human drivers to stay alert at all times, even when the system temporarily takes control of steering and acceleration. As soon as the traffic or road conditions aren’t adequate for the system to operate, control is given back to the driver who needs to take over manual control of the vehicle. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teslas-autopilot-crashes-spurred-the-feds-to-investigate-driver-assist-technologies-and-what-that-means-for-the-future-of-self-driving-cars-166307">Why Tesla's Autopilot crashes spurred the feds to investigate driver-assist technologies – and what that means for the future of self-driving cars</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.hslab.org/what">Human factors engineering</a> is a cross-disciplinary research field investigating how humans interact with vehicle technology. Its researchers have, for years, highlighted the safety risks of automated driving — especially when the system requires the driver to make up for technological shortcomings to operate safely. </p>
<p>This is the case in what is known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">automation paradox</a>, wherein the more automated the vehicle, the harder it is for humans to operate it properly.</p>
<h2>Underestimating vehicle capability</h2>
<p>Among the most prominent risks of operating SAE Level 2 cars is when drivers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1064804620982711">misunderstand the capabilities</a> of the automated system. The issue often leads to unsafe behaviours like <a href="https://abc-7.com/news/weird/2021/06/18/watch-driver-caught-reading-behind-the-wheel-of-tesla-on-i-75/">reading a book</a> or <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8270749/video-tesla-driver-asleep-at-the-wheel-bc-bridge-rush-hour/">taking a nap</a> while the vehicle is in motion.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-to-blame-when-a-self-driving-car-has-an-accident-150941">Who's to blame when a self-driving car has an accident?</a>
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<p>In 2021, there were so many reports of unsafe behaviours at the wheel of Level 2 cars, that the NHTSA required manufacturers to <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/initial-data-release-advanced-vehicle-technologies">start reporting crashes that had occurred when these systems were engaged</a>. </p>
<p>The initial findings, released in June 2022, showed that since 2021, Tesla and Honda vehicles were, respectively, involved in <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2022-06/ADAS-L2-SGO-Report-June-2022.pdf">273 and 90 reported crashes when these systems were engaged</a>. Most crashes occurred in Texas and California.</p>
<p>While these data paint a dismal picture of the safety of these systems, they pale in comparison to the over <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813298">40,000 reported fatal crashes that occurred in the United States in 2021 alone</a>. </p>
<p>As part of the same report, NHTSA itself highlights some of the <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2022-06/ADS-SGO-Report-June-2022.pdf">methodological limitations of the study</a>: from the incompleteness of some of the source data to failing to account for individual manufacturers’ total vehicle volume or distance travelled by vehicles. </p>
<p>For the skeptics, this does not spell the end of autonomous cars. It does, however, confirm that widespread deployment of safe self-driving cars is not years, but decades, in the making.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Biondi is an Associate Professor and director of the Human Systems Lab at the University of Windsor.</span></em></p>The promise of self-driving cars remains unfulfilled, as the technology still requires drivers to co-pilot the vehicles to avoid collisions.Francesco Biondi, Associate Professor, Human Systems Labs, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709612021-11-23T18:56:16Z2021-11-23T18:56:16ZThe self-driving trolley problem: how will future AI systems make the most ethical choices for all of us?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433389/original/file-20211123-19-1rrgiix.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C387%2C6790%2C3541&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is already making decisions in the fields of business, health care and manufacturing. But AI algorithms generally still get help from people applying checks and making the final call. </p>
<p>What would happen if AI systems had to make independent decisions, and ones that could mean life or death for humans? </p>
<p>Pop culture has long portrayed our general distrust of AI. In the 2004 sci-fi movie I, Robot, detective Del Spooner (played by Will Smith) is suspicious of robots after being rescued by one from a car crash, while a 12-year-old girl was left to drown. He <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0343818/characters/nm0371671">says</a>:</p>
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<p>I was the logical choice. It calculated that I had a 45% chance of survival. Sarah only had an 11% chance. That was somebody’s baby – 11% is more than enough. A human being would’ve known that.</p>
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<p>Unlike humans, robots lack a moral conscience and follow the “ethics” programmed into them. At the same time, human morality is highly variable. The “right” thing to do in any situation will depend on who you ask.</p>
<p>For machines to help us to their full potential, we need to make sure they <a href="https://www.moralmachine.net/">behave ethically</a>. So the question becomes: how do the ethics of AI developers and engineers influence the decisions made by AI? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-75-years-isaac-asimovs-three-laws-of-robotics-need-updating-74501">After 75 years, Isaac Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics need updating</a>
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<h2>The self-driving future</h2>
<p>Imagine a future with self-driving cars that are fully autonomous. If everything works as intended, the morning commute will be an opportunity to prepare for the day’s meetings, catch up on news, or sit back and relax. </p>
<p>But what if things go wrong? The car approaches a traffic light, but suddenly the brakes fail and the computer has to make a split-second decision. It can swerve into a nearby pole and kill the passenger, or keep going and kill the pedestrian ahead. </p>
<p>The computer controlling the car will only have access to limited information collected through car sensors, and will have to make a decision based on this. As dramatic as this may seem, we’re only a few years away from potentially facing such dilemmas. </p>
<p>Autonomous cars will generally provide safer driving, but accidents will be inevitable – especially in the foreseeable future, when these cars will be sharing the roads with human drivers and other road users. </p>
<p>Tesla <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/05/07/tesla-refutes-elon-musks-timeline-on-full-self-driving/#">does not yet produce</a> fully autonomous cars, although it plans to. In collision situations, Tesla cars don’t automatically operate or deactivate the Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) system if a human driver is in control. </p>
<p>In other words, the driver’s actions are not disrupted – even if they themselves are causing the collision. Instead, if the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/patricklin/2017/04/05/heres-how-tesla-solves-a-self-driving-crash-dilemma/?sh=1a3225616813">car detects a potential collision</a>, it sends alerts to the driver to take action. </p>
<p>In “autopilot” mode, however, the car should automatically brake for pedestrians. Some argue if the car can prevent a collision, then there is a moral obligation for it to override the driver’s actions in every scenario. But would we want an autonomous car to make this decision?</p>
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<h2>What’s a life worth?</h2>
<p>What if a car’s computer could evaluate the relative “value” of the passenger in its car and of the pedestrian? If its decision considered this value, technically it would just be making a cost-benefit analysis. </p>
<p>This may sound alarming, but there are already technologies being developed that could allow for this to happen. For instance, the recently re-branded Meta (formerly Facebook) has highly evolved facial recognition that can easily identify individuals in a scene.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/facebook-will-drop-its-facial-recognition-system-but-heres-why-we-should-be-sceptical-171186">Facebook will drop its facial recognition system – but here's why we should be sceptical</a>
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<p>If these data were incorporated into an autonomous vehicle’s AI system, the algorithm could place a dollar value on each life. This possibility is depicted in an extensive 2018 study conducted by experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues. </p>
<p>Through the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0637-6">Moral Machine</a> experiment, researchers posed various self-driving car scenarios that compelled participants to decide whether to kill a homeless pedestrian or an executive pedestrian. </p>
<p>Results revealed participants’ choices depended on the level of economic inequality in their country, wherein more economic inequality meant they were more likely to sacrifice the homeless man. </p>
<p>While not quite as evolved, such data aggregation is already in use with China’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-social-credit-system-punishments-and-rewards-explained-2018-4">social credit</a> system, which decides what social entitlements people have. </p>
<p>The health-care industry is another area where we will see AI making decisions that could save or harm humans. Experts are increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-be-our-radiologists-of-the-future-amid-a-healthcare-staff-crisis-120631">developing AI to spot anomalies</a> in <a href="https://www.aidoc.com/blog/5-ways-ai-can-assist-radiologists/#">medical imaging</a>, and to help physicians in prioritising medical care.</p>
<p>For now, doctors have the final say, but as these technologies become increasingly advanced, what will happen when a doctor and AI algorithm don’t make the same diagnosis? </p>
<p>Another example is an automated medicine reminder system. How should the system react if a patient refuses to take their medication? And how does that affect the patient’s autonomy, and the overall accountability of the system? </p>
<p>AI-powered drones and weaponry are also ethically concerning, as they can make the decision to kill. There are conflicting views on whether such technologies should be completely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/oct/15/dangerous-rise-of-military-ai-drone-swarm-autonomous-weapons">banned or regulated</a>. For example, the use of autonomous drones can be limited to surveillance. </p>
<p>Some have called for military robots to be programmed with ethics. But this raises issues about the programmer’s accountability in the case where a drone kills civilians by mistake.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gun-toting-robo-dogs-look-like-a-dystopian-nightmare-thats-why-they-offer-a-powerful-moral-lesson-170267">Gun-toting robo-dogs look like a dystopian nightmare. That's why they offer a powerful moral lesson</a>
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<h2>Philosophical dilemmas</h2>
<p>There have been many philosophical debates regarding the ethical decisions AI will have to make. The classic example of this is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trolley-dilemma-would-you-kill-one-person-to-save-five-57111">trolley problem</a>.</p>
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<p>People often struggle to make decisions that could have a life-changing outcome. When evaluating how we react to such situations, one study reported choices can vary depending on <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/10/24/139313/a-global-ethics-study-aims-to-help-ai-solve-the-self-driving-trolley-problem/">a range of factors</a> including the respondant’s age, gender and culture.</p>
<p>When it comes to AI systems, the algorithms training processes are critical to how they will work in the real world. A system developed in one country can be influenced by the views, politics, ethics and morals of that country, making it unsuitable for use in another place and time.</p>
<p>If the system was controlling aircraft, or guiding a missile, you’d want a high level of confidence it was trained with data that’s representative of the environment it’s being used in. </p>
<p>Examples of failures and bias in technology implementation have included <a href="https://www.iflscience.com/technology/this-racist-soap-dispenser-reveals-why-diversity-in-tech-is-muchneeded/">racist soap dispenser</a> and inappropriate <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jul/01/google-sorry-racist-auto-tag-photo-app">automatic image labelling</a>. </p>
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<p>AI is not “good” or “evil”. The effects it has on people will depend on the ethics of its developers. So to make the most of it, we’ll need to reach a consensus on what we consider “ethical”.</p>
<p>While private companies, public organisations and research institutions have their own guidelines for ethical AI, the United Nations has recommended developing what they call “<a href="https://en.unesco.org/artificial-intelligence/ethics#recommendation">a comprehensive global standard-setting instrument</a>” to provide a global ethical AI framework – and ensure human rights are protected.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Between driverless cars, autonomous weapons and AI-powered medical diagnostic tools, it seems there will be no shortage of ethically-complex situations involving AI in the future.Jumana Abu-Khalaf, Research Fellow in Computing and Security, Edith Cowan UniversityPaul Haskell-Dowland, Professor of Cyber Security Practice, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1509412020-11-30T21:55:39Z2020-11-30T21:55:39ZWho’s to blame when a self-driving car has an accident?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371603/original/file-20201126-13-87jval.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5100%2C3443&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Self-driving cars are programmed to identify and avoid risk, but in the case of an accident, who is legally responsible?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With self-driving cars <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/driverless-cars-pittis-1.5739153">gaining traction in today’s automobile landscape</a>, the issue of legal liability in the case of an accident has become more relevant.</p>
<p>Research in human-vehicle interaction has shown <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">time and again</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720819836310">that even systems</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58465-8_7">designed to automate driving</a> — like adaptive cruise control, which maintains the vehicle at a certain speed and distance from the car ahead — are far from being error-proof. </p>
<p>Recent evidence points to drivers’ limited understanding of what these systems can and cannot do (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0202-6">also known as mental models</a>) as a contributing factor to system misuse.</p>
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<p>There are many issues troubling the world of self-driving cars including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720819872034">the less-than-perfect technology</a> and <a href="https://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/autonomous-vehicles/">lukewarm public acceptance of autonomous systems</a>. There is also the question of legal liabilities. In particular, what are the legal responsibilities of the human driver and the car maker that built the self-driving car?</p>
<h2>Trust and accountability</h2>
<p>In a recent study published in <em>Humanities and Social Science Communications</em>, the authors tackle <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00644-2">the issue of over-trusting drivers and the resulting system misuse from a legal viewpoint</a>. They look at what the manufacturers of self-driving cars should legally do to ensure that drivers understand how to use the vehicles appropriately.</p>
<p>One solution suggested in the study involves requiring buyers to sign end-user licence agreements (EULAs), similar to the terms and conditions that require agreement when using new computer or software products. To obtain consent, manufacturers might employ the omnipresent touchscreen, which comes installed in most new vehicles. </p>
<p>The issue is that this is far from being ideal, or even safe. And the interface may not provide enough information to the driver, leading to confusion about the nature of the requests for agreement and their implications.</p>
<p>The problem is, most end users don’t read EULAs: a 2017 Deloitte study <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deloitte-study-91-percent-agree-terms-of-service-without-reading-2017-11">shows that 91 per cent of people agree to them without reading</a>. The percentage is even higher in young people, with 97 per cent agreeing without reviewing the terms.</p>
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<p>Unlike using a smartphone app, operating a car has intrinsic and sizeable safety risks, whether the driver is human or software. Human drivers need to consent to take responsibility for the outcomes of the software and hardware.</p>
<p>“Warning fatigue” and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">distracted driving</a> are also causes for concern. For example, a driver, annoyed after receiving continuous warnings, could decide to just ignore the message. Or, if the message is presented while the vehicle is in motion, it could represent a distraction.</p>
<p>Given these limitations and concerns, even if this mode of obtaining consent is to move forward, it likely won’t fully shield automakers from their legal liability should the system malfunction or an accident occur.</p>
<p>Driver training for self-driving vehicles can help ensure that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">drivers fully understand system capabilities and limitations</a>. This needs to occur beyond the vehicle purchase — recent evidence shows that even relying on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100103">the information provided by the dealership is not going to answer many questions</a>. </p>
<p>All of this considered, the road forward for self-driving cars is not going to be a smooth ride after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Biondi is an Assistant Professor at the University of Windsor, and consults on transportation and manufacturing Human Factors cases. </span></em></p>As self-driving cars increase in popularity, the question of legal liability remains. The driver, automobile manufacturer and software designers all have a role to play.Francesco Biondi, Assistant Professor, Human Kinetics, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1433162020-07-30T12:02:22Z2020-07-30T12:02:22ZAutonomous cars: five reasons they still aren’t on our roads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350425/original/file-20200730-17-tofe77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brussels-belgium-jan-09-2020-metallic-1619989450">Grzegorz Czapski/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elon Musk thinks his company Tesla will have fully autonomous cars ready by the end of 2020. “There are no fundamental challenges remaining,” he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53349313">said recently</a>. “There are many small problems. And then there’s the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.”</p>
<p>While the technology to enable a car to complete a journey without human input (what the industry calls “<a href="https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/tech/autonomous-car-levels-different-driverless-technology-levels-explained/">level 5 autonomy</a>”) might be advancing rapidly, producing a vehicle that can do so safely and legally is another matter. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-self-driving-cars-safe-expert-on-how-we-will-drive-in-the-future-128644">Are self-driving cars safe? Expert on how we will drive in the future</a>
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<p>There are indeed still fundamental challenges to the safe introduction of fully autonomous cars, and we have to overcome them before we see these vehicles on our roads. Here are five of the biggest remaining obstacles.</p>
<h2>1. Sensors</h2>
<p>Autonomous cars use a <a href="https://www.itransition.com/blog/autonomous-vehicle-sensors">broad set of sensors</a> to “see” the environment around them, helping to detect objects such as pedestrians, other vehicles and road signs. Cameras help the car to view objects. Lidar uses lasers to measure the distance between objects and the vehicle. Radar detects objects and tracks their speed and direction. </p>
<p>These sensors all feed data back to the car’s control system or computer to help it make decisions about where to steer or when to brake. A fully autonomous car needs a set of sensors that accurately detect objects, distance, speed and so on under all conditions and environments, without a human needing to intervene. </p>
<p>Lousy weather, heavy traffic, roads signs with graffiti on them can all negatively impact the accuracy of sensing capability. Radar, which Tesla uses, is less susceptible to adverse weather conditions, but challenges remain in ensuring that the chosen sensors used in a fully autonomous car can detect all objects with the required level of certainty for them to be safe. </p>
<p>To enable truly autonomous cars, these sensors have to work in all weather conditions anywhere on the planet, from Alaska to Zanzibar and in congested cities such as Cairo and Hanoi. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51645566">Accidents with Tesla’s current (only level 2) “autopilot”</a>, including one in <a href="https://www.torquenews.com/1083/police-tesla-autopilot-hits-not-one-two-parked-first-responder-vehicles">July 2020 hitting parked vehicles</a>, show the company has a big gap to overcome to produce such a global, all-weather capability.</p>
<h2>2. Machine learning</h2>
<p>Most autonomous vehicles will use artificial intelligence and <a href="https://iiot-world.com/artificial-intelligence-ml/machine-learning/machine-learning-algorithms-in-autonomous-driving">machine learning</a> to process the data that comes from its sensors and to help make the decisions about its next actions. These algorithms will help identify the objects detected by the sensors and classify them, according to the system’s training, as a pedestrian, a street light, and so on. The car will then use this information to help decide whether the car needs to take action, such as braking or swerving, to avoid a detected object.</p>
<p>In the future, machines will be able to do this detection and classification more efficiently than a human driver can. But at the moment there is no widely accepted and agreed basis for ensuring that the machine learning algorithms used in the cars are safe. We do not have agreement across the industry, or across standardisation bodies, on how machine learning should be trained, tested or validated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Interior of car looking out at virtual world." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350426/original/file-20200730-25-y4ho3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fully autonomous capabilities are yet to be proven.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/self-driving-car-on-road-vision-1207431013">Scharfsinn/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>3. The open road</h2>
<p>Once an autonomous car is on the road it will continue to learn. It will drive on new roads, detect objects it hasn’t come across in its training, and be subject to software updates. </p>
<p>How can we ensure that the system continues to be just as safe as its previous version? We need to be able to show that any new learning is safe and that the system doesn’t forget previously safe behaviours, something the industry has yet to reach agreement on.</p>
<h2>4. Regulation</h2>
<p>Sufficient standards and regulations for a whole autonomous system do not exist - in any industry. <a href="https://www.iso.org/standard/70939.html">Current standards</a> for <a href="https://www.iso.org/standard/43464.html">the safety</a> of existing vehicles assume the presence of a human driver to take over in an emergency. </p>
<p>For self-driving cars, there are emerging regulations for particular functions, such as for <a href="http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2020/wp29grva/GRVA-06-02r1e.pdf">automated lane keeping systems</a>. There is also <a href="https://ul.org/UL4600">an international standard</a> for autonomous systems that includes autonomous vehicles, which sets relevant requirements but does not solve the problems of sensors, machine learning and operational learning introduced above - although it may in time.</p>
<p>Without recognised regulations and standards, no self-driving car, whether considered to be safe or not, will make it on to the open road.</p>
<h2>5. Social acceptability</h2>
<p>There have been numerous high-profile accidents involving <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51645566">Tesla’s current automated cars</a>, as well as with <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/6/20951385/uber-self-driving-crash-death-reason-ntsb-dcouments">other automated and autonomous vehicles</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/finding-trust-and-understanding-in-autonomous-technologies-70245">Social acceptability</a> is not just an issue for those wishing to buy a self-driving car, but also for others sharing the road with them. </p>
<p>The public needs to be involved in decisions about the introduction and adoption of self-driving vehicles. Without this, we risk the rejection of this technology.</p>
<p>The first three of these challenges must be solved to help us overcome the latter two. There is, of course, a race to be the first company to introduce a fully self-driving car. But without collaboration on how we make the car safe, provide evidence of that safety, and work with regulators and the public to get a “stamp of approval” these cars will remain on the test track for years to come. </p>
<p>Unpalatable as it may be to entrepreneurs such as Musk, the road to getting autonomous vehicles approved is through lengthy collaboration on these hard problems around safety, assurance, regulation and acceptance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John McDermid consults to/has share options in FiveAI who are developing technology for autonomous vehicles (but are nor producing vehicles and so do not compete with Tesla). He receives funding from Lloyd's Register Foundation for work on assurance of robotics and autonomous systems; the Foundation is a charity and does not manufacture or sell autonomous vehicles. </span></em></p>Despite what Elon Musk says, there are numerous challenges to overcome in creating completely self-driving cars that work in the real world.John McDermid, Director, Assuring Autonomy International Programme, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1376842020-05-20T12:48:26Z2020-05-20T12:48:26ZAutonomous cars could revolutionise transport for disabled people – if we change the way we design<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336315/original/file-20200520-152320-1sn0g4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-man-on-wheelchair-opening-red-725071276">Andrey Popov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The move towards driverless cars isn’t just a chance for people to <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-how-youll-use-free-time-for-work-and-rest-according-to-research-113090">relax at the wheel</a>. It’s an opportunity to revolutionise personal transport in a way that offers life-changing benefits to people with disabilities.</p>
<p>But for this to happen, we need the car industry to commit to more inclusive design practices that right now are widely absent, and overcome the challenges of designing new ways to interact with autonomous vehicles. The solution could involve manufacturers drawing inspiration from diverse areas of product design to get the balance right between style and real-world user-friendliness.</p>
<p>The term “<a href="https://www.designcouncil.org.uk/bs-7000-62005-design-management-systems-managing-inclusive-design-guide">inclusive design</a>” is used to describe the consideration of the needs and abilities of a diverse range of people in the design process. The car industry has traditionally focused on designing for people with driving licences - who by definition tend to be the more able-bodied section of the population.</p>
<p>Yet people with disabilities make up a significant minority – 22% of people in the UK (13.9 million) <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/692771/family-resources-survey-2016-17.pdf">as of 2016-17</a>. Many of these people may be unable to drive today’s cars, whether due to issues such as sight loss, significant physical impairments or cognitive issues.</p>
<p>Having a disability and being reliant on public transport is fraught with difficulties. And having trouble getting around is key among the barriers <a href="https://mobilitylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NationalOrganizationonDisabilityHarrisSurvey.htm">disabled people cite</a> as stopping them taking greater part in society, whether visiting friends and family or joining a club. </p>
<p>Anyone who has had to have a difficult conversation with an older relative, encouraging them to give up driving often because of cognitive or physical decline, will understand what this can mean. So making transport more accessible is key to enabling people to improve their quality of life – whether through better economic opportunities, less social isolation or restoring dignity.</p>
<p>While autonomous cars will increasingly take away the need for people to physically drive the vehicles, there are other barriers to disabled people using cars that need to be considered. Simply getting in and out of vehicles presents difficulties to many people with physical disabilities – not just wheelchair users – and to many older people as muscle strength decreases with age. This makes thoughtful design touches such as grab handles and side steps widely beneficial. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336318/original/file-20200520-152344-1r3e1bx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Autonomous cars will provide an opportunity for a complete design overhaul.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Coventry University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Operating features that require significant effort, such as folding car seats or tailgates, can be difficult so it’s essential they are designed to work with a reasonable level of force using handles and large contact surfaces. Seat belts also present difficulties as they can be difficult to reach and insert. Restraint systems need a fresh look and a redesign using inclusive design principles to ensure they can be easily used by all in the population. </p>
<p>And for those who are wheelchair users, a simple, easy-to-use restraint system is also required. That’s assuming there’s a well-designed ramp, lowered floor and appropriate space for the wheelchair user to first enter the vehicle.</p>
<p>Self-driving cars will also introduce new challenges, such as the need for interfaces to enable passengers to select a destination or receive information about their journey. To cater for disabled people, they can’t be reliant on only one type of input or feedback. Visual displays may not be suitable for some passengers, just as voice input may be inappropriate for others.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the considerable discussion and resources going into changing personal transport through the development of self-driving cars, there’s little evidence that inclusive design is a major part of the process. This includes from regulators, who are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/trialling-automated-vehicle-technologies-in-public">updating their codes</a> to accommodate trials of autonomous vehicles, but apparently without considering how vehicle design could benefit people with disabilities.</p>
<h2>Including inclusive design</h2>
<p>It’s not difficult to design accessible cars if the needs and capabilities of a diverse population are considered early in the design process. A few car makers have adopted this philosophy, for example, <a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2016/02/ageing-suit-helps-ford-engineers-think-differently/">Ford uses a “third age suit”</a> that simulates the limited mobility, vision and sense of touch that many older people experience. </p>
<p>This helps the firm’s engineers and designers to get those important details right, such as their <a href="https://wonderfulengineering.com/fords-age-suit-lets-you-experience-life-as-a-104-year-old-man">360-degree door handles</a> that allow the door to be easily opened from the outside using the the whole arm and hand, rather than pull-up handles that require the fingers and wrist to operate them. </p>
<p>Similarly, firms in other sectors have already found ways to develop accessible interfaces. Samsung’s work in producing smart TVs accessible for blind and partially sighted people <a href="https://www.rnib.org.uk/samsung-wins-rnib%E2%80%99s-inclusive-society-award-its-accessible-smart-tv-range">received the Royal National Institute of Blind People’s Inclusive Society Award</a>. The TV can read on-screen text back to the user and provides verbal feedback about the channel, volume and programme information. It even reads aloud the on-screen programme guide. </p>
<p>The car industry has a choice to make: business class travel for a select few, or truly accessible transport for the wider population, offering dignity and an enhanced quality of life to those who face significant challenges everyday. I know which I prefer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Herriotts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Driverless cars create an opportunity for more inclusive design – so why aren’t more companies using it?Paul Herriotts, Professor of Transport Design, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1329522020-04-21T12:48:32Z2020-04-21T12:48:32ZLinking self-driving cars to traffic signals might help pedestrians give them the green light<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328812/original/file-20200417-152597-mrj2yp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=336%2C235%2C3758%2C2748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An autonomous vehicle has no driver to communicate with about whether it's safe to cross.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/father-holding-the-daughter-child-hand-behind-the-royalty-free-image/546425378">Saklakova/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Automated vehicles don’t have human operators to communicate their driving intentions to pedestrians at intersections. My team’s research on pedestrians’ perceptions of safety shows their trust of traffic lights tends to override their fear of self-driving cars. This suggests one way to help pedestrians trust and safely interact with autonomous vehicles may be to link the cars’ driving behavior to traffic lights.</p>
<p>In a recent study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=62sb4psAAAAJ&hl=en">by my team</a> at the University of Michigan, we focused on communication via a vehicle’s driving behavior to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/frobt.2019.00117">study how people might react to self-driving cars</a> in different situations. We set up a virtual-reality simulator that let people experience street intersections and make choices about whether to cross the street. In different simulations, self-driving cars acted either more or less like an aggressive driver. In some cases there was a traffic light controlling the intersection.</p>
<p>In the more aggressive mode, the car would stop abruptly at the last possible second to let the pedestrian cross. In the less aggressive mode, it would begin braking earlier, indicating to pedestrians that it would stop for them. Aggressive driving reduced pedestrians’ trust in the autonomous vehicle and made them less likely to cross the street. </p>
<p>However, this was true only when there was no traffic light. When there was a light, pedestrians focused on the traffic light and usually crossed the street regardless whether the car was driving aggressively. This indicates that pedestrians’ trust of traffic lights outweighs any concerns about how self-driving cars behave.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Introducing autonomous vehicles might be one way to make roads more safe. Drivers and pedestrians often <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/148533">use nonverbal communication</a> to negotiate safe passage at crosswalks, though, and cars without drivers can’t communicate in the same way. This could in turn make pedestrians and other road users less safe, especially since autonomous vehicles aren’t yet designed to communicate with systems that make streets safer, such as traffic lights. </p>
<h2>Other research being done in the field</h2>
<p>Some researchers have tried to find ways for self-driving cars to communicate with pedestrians. They have tried to use parts that cars already have, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/jaguar-land-rover-projection-pod-self-driving-cars/">such as headlights</a>, or <a href="https://medium.com/self-driven/seeing-the-light-our-call-for-a-standard-self-driving-car-language-to-communicate-intent-3f3628cc7b2">add new ones</a>, such as <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/driveai-launches-dallas-robot-car-pilot-with-a-focus-on-humans">LED signs on the vehicle</a>.</p>
<p>However, unless every car does it the same way, this strategy won’t work. For example, unless automakers agreed on how headlights should communicate certain messages or the government set rules, it would be impossible to make sure pedestrians understood the message. The same holds for new technology like LED message boards on cars. There would need to be a standard set of messages all pedestrians could understand without learning multiple systems.</p>
<p>Even if the vehicles communicated in the same way, several cars approaching an intersection and making independent decisions about stopping could cause confusion. Imagine three to five autonomous vehicles approaching a crosswalk, each displaying its own message. The pedestrian would need to read each of these messages, on moving cars, before deciding whether to cross.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328813/original/file-20200417-152558-1gwojoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What if all vehicles were communicating with the traffic lights ahead, even before they’re visible?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/smart-transportation-and-vehicles-moving-in-royalty-free-illustration/1207768535">elenabs/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Our results suggest a better approach would be to have the car communicate directly with the traffic signal, for two reasons.</p>
<p>First, pedestrians already look to and understand current traffic lights. </p>
<p>Second, a car can tell what a traffic light is doing much sooner by <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-v2x-communication-creating-connectivity-for-the-autonomous-car-era/">checking in over a wireless network</a> than by waiting until its camera can see the light.</p>
<p>This technology is still being developed, and scholars at Michigan’s <a href="https://mcity.umich.edu/">Mcity</a> mobility research center and elsewhere are studying problems like how to send and prioritize messages between cars and signals. It might effectively put self-driving cars under traffic lights’ control, with ways to adapt to current conditions. For example, a traffic light might tell approaching cars that it was about to turn red, giving them more time to stop. On a slippery road, a car might ask the light to stay green a few seconds longer so an abrupt stop isn’t necessary. </p>
<p>To make this real, engineers and policymakers would need to work together on developing technologies and setting rules. Each would have to better understand what the other does. At the same time, they would need to understand that not every solution works in every region or society. For example, the best way for traffic lights and self-driving cars to communicate in Detroit might not work in Mumbai, where roads and driving practices are far different.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lionel Peter Robert Jr receives funding from Toyota Research Institute (“TRI”) to assist the authors with their research but this article solely reflects the opinions and conclusions of its authors and not TRI or any other Toyota entity.</span></em></p>Pedestrians are wary of autonomous cars, but they trust traffic lights. Researchers suggest driverless cars could communicate directly with the signals to make their own actions more predictable.Lionel Peter Robert Jr., Associate Professor of Information, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1294272020-03-06T13:02:33Z2020-03-06T13:02:33ZAutonomous vehicles can be fooled to ‘see’ nonexistent obstacles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312623/original/file-20200129-92977-12wfpkc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C22%2C1219%2C896&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">LiDAR helps an autonomous vehicle 'visualize' what's around it.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yulong Can with data from Baidu Apollo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nothing is more important to an autonomous vehicle than sensing what’s happening around it. Like human drivers, autonomous vehicles need the ability to make instantaneous decisions. </p>
<p>Today, most autonomous vehicles rely on multiple sensors to perceive the world. Most systems use a combination of cameras, radar sensors and LiDAR (light detection and ranging) sensors. On board, computers fuse this data to create a comprehensive view of what’s happening around the car. Without this data, autonomous vehicles would have no hope of safely navigating the world. Cars that use multiple sensor systems both work better and are safer – each system can serve as a check on the others – but no system is immune from attack.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, these systems are not foolproof. Camera-based perception systems can be tricked simply by <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/sensors/slight-street-sign-modifications-can-fool-machine-learning-algorithms">putting stickers on traffic signs to completely change their meaning</a>. </p>
<p>Our work, from the <a href="http://vhosts.eecs.umich.edu/robustnet//about.html">RobustNet Research Group</a> at the University of Michigan with computer scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lcsu7m8AAAAJ">Qi Alfred Chen</a> from UC Irvine and colleagues from <a href="https://spqr.eecs.umich.edu">the SPQR lab</a>, has shown that the LiDAR-based perception system can be comprised, too. </p>
<p>By strategically spoofing the LiDAR sensor signals, the attack is able to fool the vehicle’s LiDAR-based perception system into “seeing” a nonexistent obstacle. If this happens, a vehicle could cause a crash by blocking traffic or braking abruptly.</p>
<h2>Spoofing LiDAR signals</h2>
<p>LiDAR-based perception systems have two components: the sensor and the machine learning model that processes the sensor’s data. A LiDAR sensor calculates the distance between itself and its surroundings by emitting a light signal and measuring how long it takes for that signal to bounce off an object and return to the sensor. This duration of this back-and-forth is also known as the “time of flight.”</p>
<p>A LiDAR unit sends out tens of thousands of light signals per second. Then its machine learning model uses the returned pulses to paint a picture of the world around the vehicle. It is similar to how a bat uses echolocation to know where obstacles are at night.</p>
<p>The problem is these pulses can be spoofed. To fool the sensor, an attacker can shine his or her own light signal at the sensor. That’s all you need to get the sensor mixed up.</p>
<p>However, it’s more difficult to spoof the LiDAR sensor to “see” a “vehicle” that isn’t there. To succeed, the attacker needs to precisely time the signals shot at the victim LiDAR. This has to happen at the nanosecond level, since the signals travel at the speed of light. Small differences will stand out when the LiDAR is calculating the distance using the measured time-of-flight. </p>
<p>If an attacker successfully fools the LiDAR sensor, it then also has to trick the machine learning model. Work done at the OpenAI research lab <a href="https://openai.com/blog/adversarial-example-research/">shows that</a> machine learning models are vulnerable to specially crafted signals or inputs – what are known as adversarial examples. For example, specially generated stickers on traffic signs can fool camera-based perception.</p>
<p>We found that an attacker could use a similar technique to craft perturbations that work against LiDAR. They would not be a visible sticker, but spoofed signals specially created to fool the machine learning model into thinking there are obstacles present when in fact there are none. The LiDAR sensor will feed the hacker’s fake signals to the machine learning model, which will recognize them as an obstacle.</p>
<p>The adversarial example – the fake object – could be crafted to meet the expectations of the machine learning model. For example, the attacker might create the signal of a truck that is not moving. Then, to conduct the attack, they might set it up at an intersection or place it on a vehicle that is driven in front of an autonomous vehicle.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a6R6P3D70cE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video illustration of the two methods used to trick the self-driving car’s AI.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Two possible attacks</h2>
<p>To demonstrate the designed attack, we chose an autonomous driving system used by many car makers: Baidu <a href="http://apollo.auto/">Apollo</a>. This product has over 100 partners and has reached a mass production agreement with multiple manufacturers including <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/01/baidu-volvo-ford-autonomous-driving/">Volvo and Ford</a>. </p>
<p>By using real world sensor data collected by the Baidu Apollo team, we <a href="https://sites.google.com/umich.edu/advlidar/">demonstrated two different attacks</a>. In the first, an “emergency brake attack,” we showed how an attacker can suddenly halt a moving vehicle by tricking it into thinking an obstacle appeared in its path. In the second, an “AV freezing attack,” we used a spoofed obstacle to fool a vehicle that had been stopped at a red light to remain stopped after the light turns green.</p>
<p>By exploiting the vulnerabilities of autonomous driving perception systems, we hope to trigger an alarm for teams building autonomous technologies. Research into new types of security problems in the autonomous driving systems is just beginning, and we hope to uncover more possible problems before they can be exploited out on the road by bad actors.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hYuvmwzqmsY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A simulated demonstration of two LiDAR spoofing attacks done by the researchers.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129427/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Driverless vehicles rely heavily on sensors to navigate the world. They’re vulnerable to attack if bad actors trick them into ‘seeing’ things that aren’t there, potentially leading to deadly crashes.Yulong Cao, Ph.D. Candidate in Computer Science and Engineering, University of MichiganZ. Morley Mao, Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1308132020-01-30T13:31:02Z2020-01-30T13:31:02ZHuawei and 5G: UK had little choice but say yes to Chinese – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312820/original/file-20200130-41507-1n548xi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Roosting time. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ukraine-kharkiv-july-2019-huawei-sign-1525160447">Repina Valeriya</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51283059">decision not to</a> ban China’s Huawei from being a supplier for its next-generation mobile network has caused ructions. US politicians are outraged, with Newt Gingrich calling it a “major defeat” for his country. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/29/johnson-faces-tory-rebellion-over-huawei-5g-plans-for-britain">In the UK,</a> there could be a Tory rebellion against forthcoming legislation on the matter.</p>
<p>In truth, the government had little choice. When you look at the background, the decision is at least understandable – and more complex than just a security issue. </p>
<p>Mobile phone networks comprise two parts: the core and the radio access network or RAN. The core handles security-sensitive aspects such as user authentication, routing calls, data and so on. The radio network consists of base stations and other networking equipment across mast sites nationwide. </p>
<p>When a user makes a call or uses the internet, a signal from their phone is picked up by a base station and is passed across the radio network to the core, where it is routed to wherever it is supposed to reach. While your call or data is encrypted, it is decrypted on the base station before being passed on - the base station can therefore see its content.</p>
<p>In the UK, the 5G equipment roll-out is well underway, with more to come. It’s difficult to get figures for the outlay by the four network operators – Vodafone, O2, EE and Three – but the radio network upgrade is certainly most of what is required and is spread throughout the country.</p>
<h2>Commercial realities</h2>
<p>Huawei has been banned from supplying the network core, but is to be allowed to supply a maximum of 35% of the radio network equipment. Let’s be clear here: the UK operators were lobbying hard for Huawei not to be excluded. </p>
<p>They are all using the Chinese company’s equipment to some extent in the 5G upgrades to their radio networks. Though they are still <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3366b9e6-428d-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c">having to rethink</a> their 5G plans because of the partial ban, they were facing huge costs and delays to rolling out 5G if the equipment had to be removed altogether. </p>
<p>This is partly because today’s 5G equipment piggybacks onto existing 4G base stations, and both the 4G and 5G kit <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190612082016/https://www.mobilenewscwp.co.uk/2019/03/25/scrapping-huawei-could-delay-uk-5g-rollout-by-up-to-two-years/">tends to have to be</a> supplied by one vendor. Banning Huawei <a href="https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/huawei-5g-ban-may-cost-uk--gb-pound-7b-say-telcos-in-panicky-report/d/d-id/750672">would therefore mean replacing</a> both 4G and 5G equipment. Vodafone alone <a href="https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/vodafone-uk-frets-over-huawei-swap-out-costs-urges-testing-of-all-vendors/d/d-id/749994">said this would</a> cost the company “hundreds of millions” of pounds. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312823/original/file-20200130-41554-1jzmvh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Turn up the base.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/base-station-network-operator-5g-4g-1202672155">Alexander Yakimov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Secondly, there are only three major radio suppliers: Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia (<a href="https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/ericsson-nokia-prepared-for-any-us-ban-on-china-made-gear/d/d-id/752342">all of which</a> manufacture in China). Excluding Huawei risked exposing operators to duopoly pricing. Partly <a href="https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/blog-post/blog-post-security-complexity-and-huawei-protecting-uks-telecoms-networks">for this reason</a>, the government commissioned a review of the telecoms supply chain in 2018. </p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/819469/CCS001_CCS0719559014-001_Telecoms_Security_and_Resilience_Accessible.pdf">The resulting report</a> last July said the government would develop a new security framework, and consult with industry on the best way forward. It also highlighted the need for more supplier competition, but there seems no easy solution. </p>
<h2>The security issue</h2>
<p>Without a doubt, the network operators’ commercial interests are potentially at odds with UK security interests over Huawei. People often worry about the threat of “backdoors” in Huawei equipment and software that would allow remote control from outside the UK, but the issue is more systematic security failings in the software that could be remotely exploited. </p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/790270/HCSEC_OversightBoardReport-2019.pdf">The 2019 report</a> of the board that oversees the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/07/china-huwaei-cell-uk-national-security-cyber-surveillance-hacking">Huawei Cyber Security Evaluation Centre (HCSEC)</a> said much of the software “lacks basic engineering competence” and “significantly increased risk to UK operators”. The board could only give “limited assurance” about managing the risks, and said Huawei’s coding practices make the “job of any code auditor exceptionally hard”. In other words, the verifiers could miss insertions or oversights that might enable security breaches.</p>
<p>Another risk is that equipment suppliers usually have authorised remote access to their hardware to provide support or fulfil a managed services contract, and the equipment needs regular software security updates and bug fixes. Security updates could be vetted by HCSEC, but this would probably be a difficult undertaking to scale. <a href="https://www.raconteur.net/business-innovation/mobiles-hidden-world-of-outsourcing">There is also a lot</a> of outsourcing in this sector, <a href="https://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/Press-Wire/three-uk-joins-telefonica-by-outsourcing-core-management-to-huawei">including to</a> Huawei, which opens up further potential for security breaches. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312824/original/file-20200130-41532-jwc00h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not ok computer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/software-developer-programming-code-abstract-computer-569834092">Vintage Tone</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK National Cyber Security Centre, which advises the government, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5bd4e754-41d4-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d">concedes the</a> risks of admitting Huawei, but thinks they can be made “acceptable” by limiting access. This may be challenging with the changes 5G may bring to mobile networks. For example, connected and driverless vehicles needing to exchange information quickly won’t route all their data traffic via the network core. </p>
<p>Instead, many 5G core functions may take place in the radio network, making it increasingly harder to define Huawei’s permitted area. And with base stations inherently connected to the network core, there is a limit to the isolation which can be put in place anyway. </p>
<h2>Risks and rewards</h2>
<p>Overall, however, the government seems to have been caught between a rock and a hard place: faced with wounding the UK network operators and slowing the 5G roll-out, it has sought a compromise. </p>
<p>To some extent, this is the consequences of deciding too slowly. Had the UK banned Huawei in 2018 like the US and Australia, the mobile operators’ 5G roll-out plans would have been at an earlier stage. The US <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/huawei-ban-full-timeline-us-government-britain-approves-non-core-5g-china-trump-ban-security-threat-mate-x/">also compensated</a> some of its networks for the costs of equipment removal. </p>
<p>The UK government is instead looking to the future. Nicky Morgan, the culture secretary, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/baroness-morgans-written-ministerial-statement-to-the-house-of-lords-on-uk-telecommunications">told the</a> House of Lords on January 28 that the government wants to attract established equipment vendors to the UK who are not already present, to support new disruptive entrants, and reduce barriers to market entry. </p>
<p>On established vendors, she may be referring to companies that make radio network equipment but don’t compete aggressively in this space: Samsung, for example. As for new entrants, there may be a hope of enticing players who supply different types of networks, such as Cisco or Juniper. There is also significant potential to innovate in 5G networks. The UK’s <a href="https://5g.co.uk/guides/what-are-5g-testbeds/">Testbeds and Trials programme</a> is enabling this and will continue to do so.</p>
<p>For the time being, the government can hardly be enjoying the fallout from its decision. To date, much focus has been on the confidentiality of communications over mobile networks, and risks of spying. A bigger issue is the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/Exiting-the-European-Union/17-19/Sectoral%20Analyses/37-Telecommunications-Report.pdf">need to</a> keep the mobile phone network running. We are in an era where everything from Uber and Deliveroo to most credit card machines <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-08/o2-s-all-day-outage-caused-havoc-in-ways-consumers-didn-t-expect">cannot function without it</a></p>
<p>The nightmare scenario is a hostile state-affiliated actor shutting down or damaging the mobile networks. It may have effectively been impossible for the UK to say no to Huawei, but the current compromise is far from ideal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130813/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greig Paul has been involved in projects funded by the DCMS/UK Government 5G Testbeds and Trials programme (including 5G RuralFirst), to explore ways to improve mobile coverage in rural areas of the UK.</span></em></p>After Theresa May passed the buck, her successor has put pragmatism first.Greig Paul, Lead Mobile Networks & Security Engineer, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1279202020-01-05T16:50:01Z2020-01-05T16:50:01ZSelf-driving cars will not fix our transportation woes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305255/original/file-20191204-70167-1sspxo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=101%2C331%2C3733%2C2427&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Widespread use of autonomous vehicles could increase or cut greenhouse gas emissions. It all depends on public policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s 2035, and you’re going to a movie. As you walk out the door, you reach for your phone instead of the car keys because you don’t have a car. Instead, you’ve ordered your ride to come to you. </p>
<p>The car that arrives has no driver or steering wheel. As you climb in, the electric motor silently comes to life, and the car whisks you into an aerodynamic peloton of vehicles, slipping through cross-traffic at intersections without stopping. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzzSao6ypE">utopian vision</a> is a <a href="https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation-executive-summary">common prediction</a> for the disruption of <a href="http://wordpress.ei.columbia.edu/mobility/files/2012/12/Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Aug-10-2012.pdf">today’s road transportation</a>. This future of autonomous, on-demand electric vehicles is tantalizing. It promises a hands-free solution to various transportation woes. </p>
<p>The prevailing belief is that a system of self-driving cars will solve several environmental and social problems without us needing to worry about messy stuff like politics, activism or changing our travel habits. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this future will almost certainly never come to pass. Self-driving cars, left to their own devices, will likely do more harm than good. To avoid that outcome, we’ll have to turn off autopilot and shape the system of autonomous mobility so that it best serves both our needs and the needs of the planet.</p>
<h2>More roads, more cars</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.wired.com/2010/04/gallery-1939-worlds-fair/">Futurama, a General Motors-sponsored diorama at the 1939 New York World’s Fair</a>, made a similar promise: fast and efficient highways would make traffic congestion and accidents a thing of the past. </p>
<p>Once these highways were actually built, however, <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">induced demand</a> quickly clogged them up, as people took advantage of the new roads to make new trips that they didn’t make before. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305254/original/file-20191204-70101-14su1wg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1939 Futurama exhibit, like today’s predictions about autonomous vehicles, promised an easy technical solution to transportation problems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Futurama_diorama_detail.jpg">(Richard Garrison/Wikimedia)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Autonomous vehicles risk a more dangerous version of the same phenomenon. Not only will efficient autonomous highways <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02513625.2018.1525197">tempt people</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2017.1291351">drive further</a>, but the ability to work — or even sleep — while travelling will make <a href="https://psrc.github.io/attachments/2014/TRB-2015-Automated-Vehicles-Rev2.pdf">people think</a> much <a href="https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/AUVSI/3a47c2f1-97a8-4fb7-8a39-56cba0733145/UploadedImages/documents/pdfs/7-16-14%20AVS%20presentations/kenLaberteaux.pdf">less of a two-hour commute</a>. </p>
<p>Cars might also become less energy-efficient as they’re modified to meet the demands of users. Passengers may run them at higher speeds because they’re safer, which consumes more energy due to aerodynamic resistance. <a href="https://www.treehugger.com/urban-design/honda-iemobi-mobile-autonomous-living-room-and-future-self-driving-cars.html">Car manufacturers</a> may also begin to design <a href="https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/10/self-driving-cars-are-we-ready.pdf">larger vehicles</a> to accommodate mobile offices and bedrooms. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remove-car-lanes-restrict-vehicles-and-improve-transit-to-reduce-traffic-congestion-127873">Remove car lanes, restrict vehicles and improve transit to reduce traffic congestion</a>
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<p>This might be mitigated somewhat by electric vehicles, but that electricity may still come from fossil fuels. Plus, bigger vehicles with bigger batteries will produce more carbon emissions as a <a href="https://www.alternativesjournal.ca/energy-and-resources/your-electric-car-really-green">byproduct of their construction</a>. </p>
<p>These processes could, theoretically, be carbon-neutral, but that may not occur quickly enough. The safe bet is to reduce the number of kilometres travelled, rather than increasing them.</p>
<p>There’s also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.02.012">the threat</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001">an empty</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9937-9">vehicle travelling many kilometres</a>. Why search for a parking spot when you could send your car home? </p>
<p>Scholars who have used computer models and other techniques to predict the environmental impact of autonomous vehicles have found the mass use of private self-driving cars could <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67216.pdf">lead to increases</a> in carbon emissions of up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001">200 per cent</a>.</p>
<h2>Robo-taxi rejection</h2>
<p>Most of the utopian visions of self-driving cars assume that they will be shared, rather than owned privately. This would be a more sustainable option. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/10/self-driving-cars-are-we-ready.pdf">people are attached to their cars</a>. They like having a vehicle that is instantly dispatchable, that they can use as a mobile storage locker, and that signals their social status. </p>
<p>Shared vehicles might also be uncomfortable. Because of the risk of vandalism and mess caused by unsupervised passengers, robo-taxis might be equipped with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5382192">hard plastic</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.09.005">bus-style seats</a>, rather than the plush upholstered interiors that motorists are accustomed to. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306514/original/file-20191212-85417-15fr1rr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Lyft self-driving car drives on the streets in Palo Alto, Calif., in December 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p><a href="https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Mobility_PeakCarOwnership_Report2017.pdf">Surveys</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2016.01.019">show</a> that if autonomous taxis cost US$1 per mile, only 10 per cent of respondents would give up their car to use them. Even if they were completely free, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2017.01.010">a quarter of motorists would still keep their cars</a>.</p>
<p>Autonomous taxis are far more likely to win over cyclists, pedestrians and transit riders. But this would likely make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2017.05.418">those people’s trips less sustainable</a>. </p>
<p>None of this will be helped by the fact that autonomous vehicle enthusiasts envision a future of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3141%2F2381-10">road systems</a> free of <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-market-based-approach-to-accommodate-user-in-Vasirani/43c28122ab2c7bae2a11e7fa427e087de01a499f">traffic lights</a>, which will rarely provide space for cyclists or pedestrians. </p>
<h2>Best-case scenario</h2>
<p>But what if your autonomous trip to the theatre looked a bit different? </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05990-7_8">model being explored</a> by <a href="https://www.bcg.com/en-ca/publications/2016/transportation-travel-tourism-automotive-will-autonomous-vehicles-derail-trains.aspx">many scholars</a> and <a href="https://e-estonia.com/driverless-public-bus-tallinn/">experiments</a> in <a href="http://www.citymobil-project.eu/">Europe</a>, the autonomous vehicle that picks you up on your way to the movie theatre would be more like a last-mile shuttle for public transit.</p>
<p>It would move slowly but comfortably, picking up multiple passengers on its way to the local transit hub, where you would board a fast and efficient light rail line. You would still arrive at the movie with time to spare. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306515/original/file-20191212-85367-166k12u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An autonomous shuttle service in Vincennes Woods, in Paris, fills the gaps in commuter transportation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>This model could supplement existing forms of sustainable mobility rather than competing with them, making car ownership less mandatory. And because owning a car <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.05.006">predisposes people towards using a car</a>, this could be a powerful way to support sustainable transportation. </p>
<p>Shared, slow, autonomous shuttles integrated with public transit and other forms of sustainable mobility would <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05990-7_8">get around a lot of the technology’s current hurdles</a>. They could, for example, drive slowly enough that there would very little risk of them hurting or killing anyone. </p>
<p>If paired with other forms of sustainable urban transportation policy, such as committed support for bike lanes, as well as fast, efficient, and cheap public transit networks, they could play a key role in helping to realize a transportation scenario with vastly reduced car use, which could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.08.020">our best shot</a> at averting the worst consequences of climate change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-vehicles-canada-tops-the-charts-for-poor-fuel-economy-115213">When it comes to vehicles, Canada tops the charts for poor fuel economy</a>
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<p>This outcome, however, will not emerge autonomously. It will require us to actively shape the mobility system through regulation, activism and planning. </p>
<p>It will require pushing back against vested interests that support dependence on private cars. And it will require us to reconsider our travel habits. </p>
<p>In short: Autonomous vehicles will not automatically drive us to a better transportation future. We’ll have to take the wheel ourselves.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Roberts receives funding from The Transition Accelerator, a research organisation devoted to understanding, envisioning, and actively developing radical low-carbon transitions in Canada. He works with them as a postdoctoral research assistant, studying low-carbon personal mobility. He has also been involved with the activist groups Extinction Rebellion, Our Time, and Courage Coalition.</span></em></p>The sweeping introduction of driverless cars could see more vehicles on the road, driving longer distances. But smart planning could solve some of transit-associated environmental and social problems.Cameron Roberts, Researcher in Sustainable Transportation, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1261112019-11-27T18:42:19Z2019-11-27T18:42:19ZDriverless vehicles and pedestrians don’t mix. So how do we re-arrange our cities?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303676/original/file-20191126-112512-2id8ki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C4000%2C2568&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Autonomous vehicles can only travel at speed at close quarters in the absence of human drivers, cyclists and pedestrians.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/search">posteriori/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Videos showing autonomous or self-driving vehicles weaving in and out of crossroads at speed without colliding suggest this technology will solve traffic problems. You almost never see pedestrians or cyclists in these videos. The reality is that they don’t fit.</p>
<p>The vision of autonomous traffic is either of a large convoy of vehicles just a metre apart moving along road corridors at 100km/h, or of vehicles in an urban setting where their sensors are picking up every pedestrian movement and slowing or stopping. In the first case, the vehicles form an impenetrable barrier to pedestrians or cyclists (who, like on a freeway, will probably be banned). In the second case, pedestrians and cyclists are able to ruin traffic flow and are <a href="https://theconversation.com/nothing-to-fear-how-humans-and-other-intelligent-animals-might-ruin-the-autonomous-vehicle-utopia-114504">likely to just take over streets</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4pbAI40dK0A?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">What’s missing from the demonstration of autonomous vehicles flowing through an intersection is the human element of cyclists and pedestrians.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nothing-to-fear-how-humans-and-other-intelligent-animals-might-ruin-the-autonomous-vehicle-utopia-114504">Nothing to fear? How humans (and other intelligent animals) might ruin the autonomous vehicle utopia</a>
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<p>It occurs to me this is a really good thing for our cities. I worried that the vision some had (mostly car makers, I suspect) was of a city completely taken over by self-driving vehicles.</p>
<p>All public transport would be gone as thousands of these vehicles scattered along every street looking for on-demand passengers. Historic centres and tram corridors would be ruined and we would no longer be able to appreciate their walkable character.</p>
<p>However, we may instead be able to take the best features of autonomous mobility technology to create cities that are more productive, liveable, inclusive and sustainable.</p>
<h2>How would we do this?</h2>
<p>The first thing is to realise that for 20-30 years cities around the world have been <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/end-automobile-dependence">getting rid of cars in their centres</a> and subcentres, drawing on the ideas of urban designers like <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/cities-people">Jan Gehl</a>. This trend includes Australian cities. These centres are where the knowledge economy workers who drive innovation want to live and work. </p>
<p>Cities are not going to easily give up their cherished walkability to thousands of self-driving vehicles. Cities mostly are planning more walkable centres with even more public transport and fewer cars; they are unlikely to yield to autonomous vehicle ideology. </p>
<p>It’s more likely cities will ban self-driving vehicles from these centres, with just one small entry and exit point to enable vehicle access. Cities will not want to kill off the economic and social golden goose of walkable centres, let alone abandon climate change plans to reduce car use.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-driverless-vehicles-should-not-be-given-unchecked-access-to-our-cities-102724">Why driverless vehicles should not be given unchecked access to our cities</a>
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<p>The second thing is that these active walkable centres are being heavily supported by quality public transport. Fortunately, autonomous technology is also being applied to transit services such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690">trackless tram</a>. These are guided but not driverless, like <a href="https://urbantransportnews.com/worlds-fastest-high-speed-driverless-bullet-train-starts-service-in-china/">high-speed rail</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-31/driverless-trains-embraced-around-the-globe-what-could-go-wrong/11155858">metros</a>, as they need drivers at times. </p>
<p>Not only could autonomous technology improve transit services, it could also take over some major road corridors that are failing at peak times. This could create an alternative rapid transit route <a href="https://theconversation.com/going-down-the-same-old-road-driverless-cars-arent-a-fix-for-our-transport-woes-50912">carrying the equivalent of six to eight lanes of traffic</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303670/original/file-20191126-112512-11owrk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The ‘movement and place’ approach</h2>
<p>Around the world and in Australia, cities are looking to make roads into combined “<a href="https://www.governmentarchitect.nsw.gov.au/guidance/movement-and-place">movement and place</a>” sites – some places will remain highly walkable and some will be just for movement but special corridors will be for both so they<a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/our-transport-future/movement-and-place-in-victoria">keep people and goods moving and are places for people to live, work and enjoy</a>. This approach gives priority to fast public transport using light rail or trackless trams combined with higher-density development around their stations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trackless-trams-v-light-rail-its-not-a-contest-both-can-improve-our-cities-125134">Trackless trams v light rail? It's not a contest – both can improve our cities</a>
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<p>The big issue on such corridors is how to get rid of cars so mass transit services have a fast, free lane to travel along as well as walkable station precincts to enter. Such a system would be much more efficient in traffic terms, but car users don’t easily give up their right to space.</p>
<p>However, the inherent problem with self-driving vehicles is that they will make a corridor impenetrable and travel through a dense precinct ridiculously slow and unpredictable. The politics will therefore shift towards a fast transit corridor along main roads together with walkable, car-free station precincts. </p>
<p>Self-driving cars can help make the fast corridor work as they are ideal for bringing on-demand passengers to the precincts where people can access local services and transfer to the fast transit line. This integrated service enables the best of both mobility solutions: fast and effective access, without destroying either the corridor or centres, and an on-demand local service as shown below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299399/original/file-20191030-154675-qyah35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Each centre will have micro-mobility options feeding into the transit system and the station precinct services. These options will provide “first mile-last mile” connectivity on demand. They include walking, electric bikes, scooters, skateboards and autonomous shuttles or cars that travel to and from the centre along a specific isolated route. </p>
<p>Certain main roads would have to be declared as clearways for autonomous electric transit, with a set of stations serving high-density centres for urban regeneration. Autonomous vehicles could reign supreme out in the suburbs that were built around the car, but would not interfere with existing or new transit corridors as well as the historic and new centres where pedestrians would reign supreme. Such is the vision of the City of Liverpool for a <a href="https://www.liverpool.nsw.gov.au/development/major-projects/fifteenth-avenue-smart-transit-fast-corridor">trackless tram route to Western Sydney Airport</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dowlQaebqRQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Liverpool City Council’s vision of an autonomous transit link to Western Sydney Airport.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This vision is not anti-autonomous vehicles. It is enabling innovations to serve us rather than being our master. We cannot simply give up our cities to cars just when we are learning to overcome such dependence. </p>
<p>To make the most of autonomous vehicles’ advantages and avoid the disadvantages, we must choose to shape our cities. Autonomous transit services with feed-in autonomous cars and micro-mobility can achieve the walkability and civility we need for a good city in the future. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">Utopia or nightmare? The answer lies in how we embrace self-driving, electric and shared vehicles</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126111/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman receives funding from the Sustainable Built Environment national research centre (SBEnrc) that works with some local and state governments on these issues.</span></em></p>Self-driving vehicles that constantly roam the streets looking for passengers could overwhelm cities. But, if kept in check, these vehicles could be useful for improving urban transport.Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1277462019-11-26T14:20:49Z2019-11-26T14:20:49ZUber’s troubles in London are nothing compared to the bigger picture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303734/original/file-20191126-112531-16m1oog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shabby cabbie?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-march-23rd-2017-photograph-610479299">Ink Drop</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The taxi app giant Uber <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/25/uber-loses-licence-london-tfl">has again lost</a> its licence in London, if only temporarily. Uber has 21 days to appeal after Transport for London (TfL) ended a probationary extension it granted to the company in September, citing a “pattern of failures” around issues such as driver security. </p>
<p>TfL has no wish to deprive Londoners of low cost convenient transport, but this decision comes as little surprise. Uber does not appear to have the controls necessary to run a wide-scale transport service and assure passengers and authorities of adequate safety standards. Despite this being one of the company’s <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519103850/d647752ds1.htm">top five markets</a> in the world by revenue, the company has shown a marked reluctance to fully cooperate with transport authorities. </p>
<p>Time and again, TfL has found that the only way to make Uber listen is to withdraw its licence and let it appeal. The authority originally <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-41358640">refused</a> to renew Uber’s licence in September 2017, citing “public safety and security” concerns. That seemed to lead to better controls – certainly judging by the <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-uber-britain/put-on-probation-uber-wins-london-licence-to-avoid-ban-idUKKBN1JK16V">concessions</a> Uber made in exchange for a 15-month probationary licence in June 2018, and then again <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/uber-only-given-twomonth-extension-to-carry-on-operating-in-london-a4244716.html">in September 2019</a> for a two-month extension. </p>
<p>Now, however, TfL <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50544283">has announced</a> new issues including the fact that over 14,000 Uber trips in London in late 2018 and early 2019 were taken by 43 drivers with fake identification. These drivers had been able to exploit a change to the Uber system that allowed them to upload their photo to a different driver’s account. Some had previously had their legitimate licences revoked, while one had been cautioned by the authorities for distributing indecent images of children. Uber <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/25/uber-loses-licence-london-tfl">has said</a> it alerted TfL to these issues in May, and claims that over the past two years, it has “fundamentally changed how we operate in London”. </p>
<h2>Where to, Uber?</h2>
<p>The latest TfL decision comes at a time when competition in ride-hailing has become cutthroat. The emergence of London competitors like <a href="https://bolt.eu/en-gb/cities/london/">Bolt</a>, <a href="http://driverapplondon.co.uk/ola-sets-its-plan-for-londons-launch/">Ola</a> and <a href="https://www.kapten.com/uk/">Kapten</a> were already making it <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/bolt-taxi-london-price-uber-app">difficult</a> for Uber to maintain its significant <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uber-fare-new-congestion-charge-london-a8857521.html">price increases</a> of recent years, while there are <a href="https://www.lyft.com/">plenty rivals</a> in other parts of the world as well.</p>
<p>All would-be competitors need to do is the same as Uber: vouchers and promotions to customers and incentives to drivers. Indeed, most taxi firms now have their own apps. Now that the market has caught up, Uber’s model amounts to little more than underpricing to customers to gain trade, while offering <a href="https://www.uber.com/gb/en/drive/rewards/">incentives</a> to drivers not to work for someone else, such as free insurance and gym passes. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, most passengers will have more than one app on their phones and taxi drivers can work for several providers at the same time. This is really just an extension of what has always been the case: the markets for both customers and drivers are highly competitive. The taxi market has <a href="https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/uber-profitability/">never been</a> very profitable and that shows no sign of changing. Plenty of people in the UK are willing to drive taxis and the only qualifications are a licence, insurance, a roadworthy car and no criminal record. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this problem for Uber is much wider than just the UK. In 2018, the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519103850/d647752ds1.htm">company made</a> adjusted losses of US$1.8 billion (£1.4 billion), compared to US$2.2 billion the year before. There is <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/4/20948213/uber-q3-earnings-report-net-loss-revenue-profit-2019">no real sign</a> of improvement <a href="https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2019/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Third-Quarter-2019/default.aspx">in 2019</a>, despite attempts to increase fares in Uber’s main markets. Whenever the company attempts to raise prices, demand drops. Uber has already had to exit <a href="https://knowledge.insead.edu/entrepreneurship/the-real-story-behind-ubers-exit-from-southeast-asia-10096">South-East Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.inc.com/associated-press/uber-yandex-merge-russia.html">Russia</a> and – though <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/08/the-real-reason-uber-is-giving-up-in-china">possibly</a> for reasons to do with state intervention – China. It is also <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/startups/newsbuzz/hail-no-more-ola-ubers-ride-growth-slows-to-a-crawl/articleshow/69641990.cms">struggling</a> in India. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303735/original/file-20191126-112522-wujy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sputtering.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/navi-mumbai-vashi-maharashtra-india-march-1350204842">Willrow Hood</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It may well be that outside North America and parts of Europe, Uber will never be profitable. In many cases, it entered markets too late. And as the ride-hailing division attempts to reduce losses, the Uber Eats takeaway delivery business is <a href="https://qz.com/1693843/uber-eats-will-lose-money-until-at-least-2024-say-cowen-analysts/">driving them</a> deeper into the red. Uber Eats exhibits similar characteristics to the ride-hailing business, subsidising the cost of home delivery to attract demand. </p>
<p>Restaurants are traditionally low-margin businesses so they are unlikely to be able to foot the bill if the customer is unwilling to pay the full delivery costs. Home delivery also has low entry barriers and switching costs, which is likely to keep it competitive in future – there are already big incumbents like Just Eat and Deliveroo. Meanwhile, other Uber initiatives such as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/26/tech/uber-jump-app/index.html">bike hire</a> and developing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/19/ubers-self-driving-car-unit-valued-at-73bn-as-it-gears-up-for-ipo">driverless vehicles</a> face strong competition, too. </p>
<h2>Environmental concerns</h2>
<p>Besides Uber’s financial difficulties, there are serious environmental issues surrounding such businesses. Taxi driver numbers in London alone <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/aug/15/sadiq-khan-wants-to-restrict-number-of-uber-drivers-in-london">have increased</a> from 60,000 to 120,000 since 2012 when Uber entered the market. Studies <a href="https://www.cityam.com/1292973-2/">show that</a> not only has this increased congestion but CO₂ has increased by 23% for the taxi industry over that time. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-promises-all-london-rides-will-be-in-electric-cars-by-2025/">Promises</a> that all Uber taxis will be fully electric by 2025 seem unconvincing, as taxi drivers themselves have to make the vehicle purchase and these vehicles are expensive – albeit Uber <a href="https://www.uber.com/gb/en/u/drive-journey-to-electric/">will provide</a> a subsidy funded by a fares increase. </p>
<p>As for Uber Eats, encouraging more people to get takeaways is not good news for carbon emissions either – at least when they are delivered on scooters or mopeds. These issues could easily turn the company into a pariah and make its battles with city authorities much harder as time goes on. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303736/original/file-20191126-112517-3u508.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Green in bag only.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gothenburg-sweden-april-11-2019-uber-1374104270">nrqemi</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>No doubt after a lengthy appeal, Uber will agree to better controls in London to get around its current difficulties. It is true that the TfL decision may embolden authorities up and down the UK and elsewhere to feel more confident about taking on Uber, but the bigger questions are really about the overall business model. Remember that this is a company that was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/technology/uber-ipo-stock-price.html">valued at</a> US$82.4 billion when its shares were listed in May. It has already sunk beneath US$50 billion: the jury is very much out on whether this can be turned around.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127746/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Colley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Uber’s London licence has been a political football for several years, but that’s not really the point.John Colley, Professor of Practice, Associate Dean, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1254432019-11-06T11:14:24Z2019-11-06T11:14:24ZFour visions for the future of public transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300236/original/file-20191105-88382-nasrla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=911%2C280%2C4153%2C2337&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/near-future-view-renewable-electrified-city-1524202889?src=0a6d1fff-e98f-435a-b20a-c212a908f828-4-32">Solveig Been/Shutterstock. </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The way people get around is starting to change, and as a professor of transport strategy I do rather wonder if the modes of transport we use today will still be around by the turn of the next century. </p>
<p>Growing up, my favourite book was a children’s encyclopaedia first published in 1953. One double page spread featured an annotated cityscape, showing all aspects of the built environment – most of which we would still be familiar with now. The various modes of transport illustrated – trains, buses, lorries, taxis, motorcycles, bikes, pedestrians and private cars – still work together as a system in fundamentally the same ways. </p>
<p>But a whole range of possible (though not inevitable) societal and technological changes could revolutionise how we travel in the coming decades. These include large-scale responses to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-rebellions-car-free-streets-showcase-the-possibility-of-a-beautiful-safe-and-green-future-124924">climate change agenda</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-good-progress-100-low-carbon-energy-is-still-a-long-way-off-for-the-uk-114949">energy sourcing and security</a>; shifting <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-uk-population-will-look-like-by-2061-under-hard-soft-or-no-brexit-scenarios-117475">demographic trends</a> (such as growing numbers of elderly people); the development of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sharing-economy-could-end-capitalism-but-thats-not-all-45203">collaborative economy</a>; the growing use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvesting-big-data-could-bring-about-the-next-transport-revolution-right-now-77261">big data</a>; and the apparent inevitability of <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-will-change-more-in-the-next-decade-than-they-have-in-the-past-century-113585">driverless cars</a>.</p>
<p>To examine what future urban transport systems might look like, I recently directed <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2018/11/apo-nid204596-1213736.pdf">a future-gazing project</a> for New Zealand’s Ministry of Transport exploring how people might be travelling in the year 2045. I helped develop four scenarios, along two axes of change. </p>
<p>The first axis considered automation – at one end, vehicles are still be driven much like today (partial automation). At the other, they’re driverless (full automation). The second axis related to how dense cities could become – one future where the population is more dispersed (like Los Angeles) and another where it is concentrated at a higher density (more like Hong Kong). With these axes in mind, I generated four possible futures for public transport, which could play out in cities across the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Choose your fighter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcus Enoch.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Shared shuttles</h2>
<p>In the “shared shuttle” city, demand responsive minibuses, Uber-style taxis and micro-modes – such as shared bicycles, electric bikes and hoverboards – to cover the <a href="https://medium.com/the-stigo-blog/the-last-mile-the-term-the-problem-and-the-odd-solutions-28b6969d5af8">“last mile”</a> to your destination are widespread. Hiring these different forms of transport is simple, thanks to seamless booking and payment systems and a thriving entrepreneurial spirit among a range of commercial, social and government transport providers. Meanwhile, new environmental regulations mean that owning a car is more expensive than it used to be, and private vehicles are restricted to the suburbs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Autonomous shuttle testing takes place in La Défense, Paris, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/la-france-september-22-2017-autonomous-721586557?src=4c5ad0f7-127e-4e21-902c-9589e16eb669-2-33">Sebastien Durand/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flexibility is a core feature of this scenario, with vehicles and services that adjust to the needs of individuals, and with how the space continually adapts to meet the needs of the city as a whole. There’s also a collaborative ethos, reinforced by the development of a more compact and high-density city, while progress toward full automation has been slow because of safety and privacy concerns.</p>
<h2>2. Mobility market</h2>
<p>Private cars still dominate urban transport in the mobility market scenario. Many citizens live and often work in dispersed, low-density suburban areas, since city-centre housing became too expensive for most to afford. Fewer people walk and cycle, because of the long distances involved. And the use of public transport has declined, since less dense transport networks mean there are fewer viable routes, though a limited network of automated trains and buses is still used for trips to the city centre. </p>
<p>Car use has fallen somewhat since the 2010s, because “active management” measures – such as pre-bookable fast lanes and tolls – are now necessary to control congestion, despite the completion of a sizeable road building programme in the recent past. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pooling resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/autonomous-wireless-remote-connected-car-sharing-1421292086?src=0a6d1fff-e98f-435a-b20a-c212a908f828-4-79">Petovarga/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead, commercially provided pre-paid personalised “mobility packages” are helping to stimulate the use of a whole range of shared mobility options, such as car-pooling, bike hire and air taxi schemes. These now account for around a quarter of all journeys.</p>
<h2>3. Connected corridors</h2>
<p>Society in this high-tech, highly urbanised world of connected corridors is characterised by perceptive but obedient citizens who trade access to their personal data in return for being able to use an extremely efficient transport system. Physically switching between different services or even different modes of travel is hassle free, thanks to well designed interchange points, and fully integrated timetabling, ticketing and information systems.</p>
<p>For instance, travellers might walk, e-cycle or take a demand-responsive minibus to a main route interchange, then board a high frequency rail service to get across town and finally take a shared autonomous taxi to their destination. Each will be guided by a personalised, all-knowing “travel ambassador” app on their smartphone or embedded chip, which will minimise overall travel times or maybe maximise sightseeing opportunities, according to their preferences. </p>
<p>Private cars are not really needed. People trust technology to deliver inexpensive and secure transport services and appreciate living close to work, family and friends.</p>
<h2>4. Plentiful pods</h2>
<p>In this future, fleets of variously-sized <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2015.1024646">driverless pods</a> now provide around three-quarters of those journeys that still need to be taken across the low-density, high-tech city. These pods having largely replaced most existing public transport services, and the vast majority of privately-owned cars. </p>
<p>People do still walk or cycle for some shorter trips. But pods are so convenient, providing affordable point-to-point journeys for those not satisfied by virtual interactions. Passengers can pay even less, if they agree to share with others. Pods are also fully connected to the internet, and are priced and tailored to meet customer needs. Ultimately, pods give people the freedom to work, learn or live where the weather is best or the houses are cheapest.</p>
<p>My research did not pass judgement as to which scenario should be pursued. But it did conclude that public transport will need to evolve to meet future challenges, and that the role of government will still be of key importance going forward, no matter which path is chosen. Personally though, if forced to choose, I think I’d favour a shared shuttle future more than the others - it just seems more sociable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Enoch was employed part-time as a Strategy Director for the duration of the PT2045 project by the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, and this article draws on data and insights gathered and derived during that period. </span></em></p>A whole range of social and technological changes could revolutionise how we travel in the coming decades.Marcus Enoch, Professor in Transport Strategy, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258742019-11-03T18:54:58Z2019-11-03T18:54:58ZHow we feel about our cars means the road to a driverless future may not be smooth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299369/original/file-20191030-138168-hq8p3r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Car owners' attachment to driving and the willingness of others to switch from public transport could confound rosy predictions for autonomous vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/adelaide-south-australia-july-27-2019-1466462240?src=srX7g0tCsTO2lfuw4YzG9Q-1-15">Steven Giles/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a reasonable expectation that autonomous vehicles will dominate the future of transport. Utopian visions suggest these driverless vehicles will lead to dramatic changes to our cities and their transportation. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles operating on a network would allow traffic to move safely and seamlessly through cities. They would use less space per vehicle. Traffic flow would be unhindered by traffic lights or other traditional driver signals. </p>
<p>More efficient transportation would use less fuel. Urban spaces could be repurposed as parking needs virtually disappear.</p>
<p>But this utopian vision depends on a range of factors. In particular, these predictions largely rely on how current car drivers respond to the advent of autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Our research</a> suggests people’s attitudes to driving and their cars could limit the predicted benefits to traffic flow and city efficiency, at least during the initial transition to driverless vehicles. </p>
<h2>What did the research look at?</h2>
<p>The research uses the city of Adelaide as a test case. We surveyed commuter preferences for the acceptance and use of driverless vehicles, as compared with their current preferences. </p>
<p>We then developed two scenarios. One is for the medium to long term, when vehicles are fully autonomous. The other is for the short-term transitional phase, during which a mix of conventional and driverless vehicles share the roads. </p>
<p>Using traffic-flow data for Adelaide, we analysed the implications of a shift towards driverless vehicles for: </p>
<ul>
<li>traffic flow</li>
<li>the number of vehicles needed to service commuter demands</li>
<li>parking</li>
<li>broader land use in the city centre.</li>
</ul>
<p>Adelaide is unusual, as a result of its <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/18907622?q&versionId=45120027">history as a planned city</a>, in having a discrete number of entry and exit points. This allows us to map more accurately average daily traffic flows into and out of the city centre. </p>
<p>Our analysis focuses on three of the city’s gateways, as shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The three Adelaide city gateways analysed for the research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We measured flows through these intersections on a typical day. Using minute-by-minute real-time data, monitored at traffic signals, we created a picture of typical traffic flows into and out of the CBD. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic flows at gateway site into and out of Adelaide city (Unley Rd/South Terrace).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adelaide City Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also surveyed commuters to discern their current transport preferences versus their perceptions of the hypothetical future. </p>
<p>Combining this information, we then describe possible outcomes of the transition to automated vehicles.</p>
<h2>What did the survey find?</h2>
<p>Below is a summary of the survey of a representative sample of 526 regular commuters into the Adelaide CBD.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We queried respondents’ willingness to carshare by taking advantage of common knowledge of real-world company Uber. </p>
<p>We also investigated respondents’ attitudes by positing a scenario in which driverless vehicles are the norm and conventional driving is a luxury. We assessed likely resistance to autonomous vehicles by considering their willingness to pay to continue to drive traditional vehicles in this scenario. </p>
<p>Key results are shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Attitudes and costs will shape transition</h2>
<p>Two observations flow from the responses. </p>
<p>First, it seems likely drivers’ prevailing attitudes to vehicle ownership may be influencing their attitudes to autonomous vehicles. For many, their car represents a status symbol. They feel a strong personal attachment to it.</p>
<p>Second, cost may be a crucial factor in take-up of driverless vehicles. As costs fall, most commuters might bow to financial pressure to shift to autonomous vehicles. However, a minority might lobby to keep a mix of driverless and conventional vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>Our analysis suggests Adelaide could reduce its current vehicle fleet by as much as 76% in the utopian driverless future. This is due to current high car dependence and long commuting times and distances at peak periods. </p>
<p>Yet some predicted benefits, notably the very large reduction in vehicle numbers and better traffic flows, might not be achieved in the near to medium term. This is due to uncertainty about how the transition to a totally driverless city will be achieved and how long it will take. </p>
<p>Key factors are commuter attitudes to driving and autonomous vehicles, the price of the technology, and consumer attitudes to car sharing. Attitudes to car ownership and driving appear to be central to how the transition will play out. </p>
<p>The survey suggests the pleasure of driving themselves, which a substantial minority of Adelaide drivers are unwilling to forgo, could limit the benefits that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2018.1466835">much of the academic literature</a> optimistically predicts. </p>
<p>Public transport may also be adversely affected as riders switch to driverlesss vehicles. This shift could increase vehicle flows in peak periods, making congestion worse during the transition to complete adoption. </p>
<p>We support the <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-vehicles-could-bring-out-the-best-or-worst-in-our-cities-by-transforming-land-use-84127">oft-suggested</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">argument</a> that large-scale adoption of driverless vehicles risks stimulating an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-driverless-vehicles-should-not-be-given-unchecked-access-to-our-cities-102724">increase in urban sprawl</a>. In the city centre, parking demand is likely to reduce greatly, allowing more diverse land uses and intensification of economic activity. But parking outside the CBD might increase, as driverless vehicles need not park near their users’ or owners’ workplace, at the expense of amenity. </p>
<p>Our analysis strongly suggests urban policy will be needed to counter the potential negative effects of introducing driverless vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raul A. Barreto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scenarios based on a survey of Adelaide commuters and analyses of traffic flows show it’s possible the congestion could get worse in the transition to driverless vehicles.Raul A. Barreto, Senior Lecturer, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/608112019-10-17T13:57:45Z2019-10-17T13:57:45ZDriverless cars won’t deliver a transport revolution – and the auto industry stands to lose out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297512/original/file-20191017-98632-i1reh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4955%2C3562&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Would that it were so simple. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/finger-pressing-push-button-start-selfdriving-643585552?src=YRyJZKs1iv1N4-HBbvWIGg-1-3">Olivier Le Moal/Shutterstock.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The breathless hype around driverless electric vehicles once promised an urban transport “revolution”, with claims that new technologies would <a href="https://www.hertz.com/blog/automotive/driverless-vehicles-could-reduce-traffic">ease congestion</a> and eliminate harmful emissions. The potential benefits of these new technologies are stimulating both activity and anxiety in the auto industry – specifically around whether the cost of investment will be justified by profits from sales of new vehicles. </p>
<p>The initial enthusiasm for driverless vehicles has gradually subsided, as the difficulties with introducing such technologies at scale in cities become better understood. As I explain in my new book <a href="https://www.agendapub.com/books/78/driving-change">Driving Change: Travel in the 21st Century</a>, the future of the car is likely to be less exciting than many suppose. Rather than a revolution, these innovations will offer gradual change, when – and indeed if – the auto industry can make it worthwhile.</p>
<p>Of course, electric motors will help to reduce tailpipe emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants. But commercial success is likely to depend on the optimal choice of battery chemistry to maximise the car’s range, while delivering long-life, lightweight and fast recharging cells. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/dyson-car-electrifying-transport-needs-a-lot-more-than-another-high-end-vehicle-125173">recent decision</a> by British inventor James Dyson to cancel his electric car project highlights the risks for new entrants. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-wont-save-the-planet-without-a-clean-energy-overhaul-they-could-increase-pollution-118012">Electric cars won't save the planet without a clean energy overhaul – they could increase pollution</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Automated systems <a href="https://www.bmwux.com/bmw-performance-technology/bmw-technology/bmw-parking-assistant-complete-guide/">can already</a> relieve drivers of tasks such as parking, and may ultimately lead to driverless travel. Yet both the performance and timing of autonomous vehicles (AVs) are very uncertain – <a href="https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf">independent observers</a> predict an extended timescale for wide deployment: perhaps the 2040s to 2050s. </p>
<h2>Safety first</h2>
<p>A key task is to agree safety standards for AVs. People are willing to accept some small risk of death or injury when at the wheel of their own car, even though <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/834585/reported-road-casualties-annual-report-2018.pdf">1,784 people were killed</a> on UK roads in 2018. But when someone else in is charge – as for rail and air travel – we demand far higher standards. AVs are potentially much safer, since they could eliminate human error that is responsible for <a href="https://www.rospa.com/rospaweb/docs/advice-services/road-safety/road-crashes-overview.pdf">95% of road accidents</a>. </p>
<p>Yet to demonstrate safe performance would require huge amounts of on-road testing, once the technology reaches an acceptable standard. Proponents <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2150.html">argue that</a> the best is the enemy of the good, so that AVs should be accepted for general use once they are better than a good human driver, with the expectation that their safety performance will improve as the technology is refined with increasing experience. </p>
<p>Within the auto industry, there’s <a href="https://corporate.ford.com/articles/products/autonomous-2021.html">a sense of inevitability</a> that driverless cars are the future. But there will need to be demonstrable benefits if the public is to pay the extra costs. Eliminating human taxi drivers could offer a substantial economic benefit: a robotic taxi summoned with an app is <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/03/05/why-driverless-cars-will-mostly-be-shared-not-owned">seen by some</a> as an alternative to owning your own car. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jAZWWFe4fAI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Yet the feasibility of robotaxis is far from clear, particularly in cities with historic street layouts and extensive kerbside parking, where narrow roads require negotiation between drivers going in opposite directions. Driverless vehicles are initially <a href="https://navya.tech/en/autonom-shuttle/">being deployed</a> in well-defined low-speed locations such as campuses, airports and business parks. Motorways where pedestrians and cyclists are excluded offer another likely location – yet getting to and from such dedicated roads would require navigation through populated streets, where driverless performance could be problematic. </p>
<h2>Still a tough sell</h2>
<p>Traffic congestion is the most intractable problem of the road system, reflecting an excess of demand for car travel in relation to road capacity in towns and cities where there is generally both high population density and high car ownership. Privately owned AVs could actually add to congestion, since they would travel without a passenger, for instance returning home after dropping people off, or cruising round the block while the owner is shopping.</p>
<p>Historic transport innovations have allowed step changes in the speed of travel: the railway in the 19th century, the car in the 20th. Increases in access to destinations, services, opportunities and choices made possible by such innovations have justified huge investments by manufacturers, public authorities and the travelling public.</p>
<p>By contrast, the new transport innovations will not increase the speed of travel. The car of the future will be electrically propelled, have extensive digital functionality and driverless options. But it’s unlikely to make much faster progress through traffic than the car of today. </p>
<p>These new transport innovations will not transform why and where people travel. Rather, they will offer incremental improvement to the quality of our journeys. As the auto industry switches to electric propulsion and develops driverless options, the lack of a transformational offering to car buyers could make it hard to recover the costs of development. </p>
<p>Drivers will take up these innovations if they offer good value. Now, the task of the auto industry is to drive down costs, to make their offerings more attractive – as it has always aimed to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Planes, trains and automobiles produced a step-change in the speed of travel – driverless and electric cars simply cannot deliver such radical improvements.David Metz, Honorary Professor of Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1212302019-08-28T11:16:44Z2019-08-28T11:16:44ZFive ways AI could make your car as smart as a human passenger<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289860/original/file-20190828-184192-zzos3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6016%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/car-head-light-motor-show-2016-396508435?src=-1-30">Sathienpong Prempetch/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Driving long distances without a passenger can be lonely. If you’ve ever done it, you might have wished for a companion to talk to – someone emotionally intelligent who can understand you and help you on the road. The disembodied voice of SatNav helps to fill the monotonous silence, but it can’t hold a conversation or keep you safe.</p>
<p>Research on <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-how-youll-use-free-time-for-work-and-rest-according-to-research-113090">driverless cars</a> is well underway, but less is heard about the work being done to make cars a smart companion for drivers. In the future, the cars still driven by humans are likely to become as sensitive and attentive to their driver’s needs as another person. Sound far-fetched? It’s closer than you might think.</p>
<h2>1. Ask your car questions</h2>
<p>We’re already familiar with AI in our homes and mobile phones. Siri and Alexa answer questions and find relevant search items from around the web on demand. The same will be possible in cars within the near future. Mercedes are integrating <a href="https://www.ausbt.com.au/hey-mercedes-new-a-class-marks-debut-of-siri-on-wheels">Siri into their new A-class car</a>. The technology can recognise the driver’s voice and their way of speaking – rather than just following a basic set of commands, the AI could interpret meaning from conversation in the same way another person could.</p>
<h2>2. From the screen to your drive</h2>
<p>Those with longer memories may remember a talking car that was a regular on TV. Knight Rider and its super intelligent KITT was a self-aware car that was fiercely loyal to Michael, the driver. Though KITT’s mounted flame thrower and bomb detector might not make it into commercial vehicles, drivers could talk to their cars through a <a href="https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/pressreleases/172082/the-future-is-now-volvo-cars-and-microsoft-enable-people-to-talk-to-their-cars">smart band on their wrists</a>. The technology is being developed to allow people to start their car before they reach it, to warm the seats, to set the destination on the navigation system, flash the lights, lock the doors and sound the horn – all from a distance with voice command.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-will-change-more-in-the-next-decade-than-they-have-in-the-past-century-113585">Cars will change more in the next decade than they have in the past century</a>
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<h2>3. Big Motor is watching you</h2>
<p>A driver alert system already exists that, through a series of audible and vibrating gestures, tries to keep the driver awake or warn them against sudden lane departure. By 2021 though, there are plans to install in-car cameras to <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/20/18274235/volvo-driver-monitoring-camera-drunk-distracted-driving">monitor a driver’s behaviour</a>. </p>
<p>If the driver looked away from the road for a period of time, or appeared drunk or sleepy, the car would take action. This might start with slowing down and alerting a call centre for someone to check on the driver, but if the driver didn’t respond, the car could take control, slow down and park in a safe place. The potential to improve road safety is promising, but there are credible concerns for what in-car cameras could mean for <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-offer-new-forms-of-control-no-wonder-governments-are-keen-98585">individual privacy</a>.</p>
<h2>4. A cure for road rage</h2>
<p>Increasingly intelligent and perceptive cars won’t stop at visual cues. An AI assistant has been developed which can pick up on the driver’s <a href="http://www.multivu.com/players/English/7988331-honda-ces-cooperative-mobility-ecosystem/">mood and well-being</a> by detecting their heart rate, eye movements, facial expressions and the tone of their voice. It’s suggested the car would learn the driver’s habits and interact with them by, for example, playing the driver’s favourite music to calm them down. It can also suggest some nice places to go – perhaps a nearby café or park – where the driver could stop to improve their state of mind.</p>
<h2>5. A butler on the road</h2>
<p>As technology is developed to monitor the mood of drivers, the next step may be cars which can <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/11/bentley-unveils-self-driving-concept-car-will-tell-bad-mood/">act to improve them</a>. Autonomous vehicles which can take over driving when drivers are stressed could change the windscreen display to show photographs or peaceful scenes. Smart glass windscreens could even black out the surroundings entirely to create a tranquil space – known tentatively in ongoing research as “cocoon mode” – where the interior is invisible from outside and the occupants can rest while the car drives. Cars might even dispense snacks and drinks on demand from refrigerated cartridges, using technology that’s under development but not scheduled to make its debut until 2035.</p>
<p>Whether for good or ill, cars are likely to change beyond recognition in the near future. It may no longer be ridiculous to think that the wildest science fiction dreams could be driving us to work in the not so distant future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Eiza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Could Knight Rider’s KITT finally be on the horizon?Max Eiza, Lecturer in Computing (Computer and Network Security), University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1213582019-08-23T12:26:24Z2019-08-23T12:26:24ZBargain-hunting robocars could spell the end for downtown parking – cities need to plan ahead now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288962/original/file-20190821-170941-22yp12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What does a future full of AVs mean for all the spaces reserved for downtown parking?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/WxZ5RWm-AEg">Kris Cros/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine a scene from the near-future: You get dropped off downtown by a driverless car. You slam the door and head into your office or appointment. But then where does the autonomous vehicle go? </p>
<p>It’s a question that cities would be wise to consider now. Self-driving cars may be on the roads within the next decade or two. </p>
<p>Automakers and specialized startups alike are aggressively <a href="https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/on-autopilot-into-the-future-the-audi-vision-of-autonomous-driving-9305/the-new-audi-a8-conditional-automated-at-level-3-9307">developing</a> automated vehicles (AVs), while government agencies <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/av/3">explore ways to reduce regulatory barriers</a>. Ride-hailing companies such as <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/07/waymo-and-lyft-partner-to-scale-self-driving-robotaxi-service-in-phoenix/">Lyft</a> and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/12/18662626/uber-volvo-self-driving-car-safety-autonomous-factory-level">Uber</a> plan to operate some AVs, but others could become private robotaxis that drop owners off wherever they like and pick them up later.</p>
<p>Without policies to encourage sharing, it’s possible there could be many private AVs on the road. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=79Ml-9YAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">We are civil</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yReyGAwAAAAJ&hl=en">and environmental engineers</a> who collaborated with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=0LqbCKAAAAAJ&hl=en">Chris Hendrickson</a>, director of Carnegie Mellon’s <a href="https://traffic21.heinz.cmu.edu/">Traffic21 Institute</a>, to <a href="https://engrxiv.org/9hqs7">examine the potential effects</a> of private AVs on cities.</p>
<p>Using Seattle as a case study, our analysis suggests that one of the biggest effects of AV technology may be on parking, as AVs leave expensive downtown spots behind in favor of cheaper parking outside the city center.</p>
<h2>Parking has a big footprint – and brings big bucks</h2>
<p>Parking takes up a lot of land in cities. </p>
<p>Researchers at UCLA estimated that about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X9701700102">5% to 8% of urban land</a> is devoted to curb parking. They estimated that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2005)131:4(233)">parking coverage</a> – the ratio of parking area to total land area - in downtown Los Angeles and Houston are about 81% and 57%, respectively.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mba.org/2018-press-releases/july/riha-releases-new-report-quantified-parking-comprehensive-parking-inventories-for-five-major-us-cities">A 2018 parking study</a> done by the Mortgage Bankers Association found that Seattle’s parking density of 29 parking stalls per acre of land is twice its population density of 13 people per acre.</p>
<p>Because driverless cars could park outside urban cores to avoid the higher parking charges downtown, they might considerably affect urban land use.</p>
<p>And there are potentially big fiscal consequences. Many cities gather a substantial amount of money from parking-related activities, with the 25 largest cities, collectively, generating <a href="https://www.governing.com/gov-data/gov-how-autonomous-vehicles-could-effect-city-budgets.html">US$1.5 billion</a> in total revenue from parking fees and taxes in 2016. </p>
<p>In Seattle, for instance, annual revenues from parking meters total about <a href="http://www.seattle.gov/financedepartment/documents/2017-09-28RevenueupdateforCouncil.pdf">$37 million</a>. In addition, Seattle also collects <a href="http://www.seattle.gov/financedepartment/documents/2017-09-28RevenueupdateforCouncil.pdf">$39 million</a> and <a href="https://www.governing.com/gov-data/gov-how-autonomous-vehicles-could-effect-city-budgets.html">$21 million</a> in annual revenues from commercial parking lot taxes and parking fines, respectively. </p>
<p>Lower demand for parking could mean <a href="http://www.seattle.gov/financedepartment/documents/2019adoptedand2020endorsed-budgetbook-final.pdf">these funds</a> – traditionally used for city operations including education, cultural resources and libraries – will need to be replaced through other sources of revenue.</p>
<h2>Simulating a city with driverless cars</h2>
<p>To gauge the potential effects of private AVs on parking, we used Seattle as a case study because data on all its off-street parking lots is available. We looked at factors including energy use, emissions, parking revenue and vehicle miles traveled (VMT), a key statistic used by traffic engineers to measure travel demand.</p>
<p>Our team obtained data from the <a href="https://www.psrc.org/parking-inventory">Puget Sound Region Council</a> on the daily occupancy and parking prices of all paid off-street parking garages and lots in downtown Seattle. We went on to identify areas outside of the downtown area with many unrestricted parking spaces, where vehicles can currently park free of charge during the day.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287929/original/file-20190813-9389-1e9bcnj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The model assumed AVs would rather travel long distances for free parking (green) than park in a paid parking lot (red), since this minimizes cost to the user.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000488">Harper et al (2018)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Then we modeled privately owned AVs searching for cheaper parking, where each vehicle makes parking decisions based on availability and total cost, including both parking fees and all operational costs of the round trip to the parking space. Each AV’s objective is to minimize cost. An AV would not become frustrated sitting in congestion or cruising to find an open curb space, whereas a human driver would.</p>
<p>We varied the operating costs of AVs per mile across a range of values, to understand how future changes either in improved technology or imposed per mile taxes might affect the results. </p>
<h2>More miles traveled, fewer parking garages?</h2>
<p>We considered a range of possible adoption rates for private AVs, from a point when few high-income early adopters have AVs to total market penetration.</p>
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<p>At low penetration rates – where anywhere from 5 to 50 percent of all cars traditionally parked downtown become automated – AVs are usually able to obtain their choice of parking space. In most cases, these are in free parking zones closest to where they drop passengers off downtown.</p>
<p>As more AVs come online, these free parking spaces closest to the downtown area fill up and cars must travel longer distances to obtain cheap parking. As market penetration rates rise, each vehicle would travel additional round trip miles in its quest for inexpensive parking.</p>
<p>With lower numbers of AVs on the road, this would have negligible impacts on the overall total miles traveled by cars in the Seattle region. But if all private cars parking downtown were AVs, the total daily miles traveled by cars in Seattle would increase by about 2.5%, with each AV traveling an additional 8.5 miles each day on average. That change, even if it sounds small, could cause congestion along heavily traveled routes depending on the time day and the mix of human-driven vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>Our simulation shows that there is enough free parking just outside downtown Seattle that AVs would no longer choose to park in downtown lots. At current prices it’s more economical to travel for free parking than to park in a paid lot. </p>
<p>Some private AV owners may rent out their car during the day as a ride-hailing service, but for others it might make financial sense to send their car home during the day and have it pick them up later. That would further increase overall vehicle miles traveled.</p>
<p><img width="100%" src="https://media.giphy.com/media/LrExHi8d0ApbT9fiB6/giphy.gif"></p>
<h2>No more parking downtown?</h2>
<p>As AVs leave downtown, parking lot revenues could decline to the point where owning a parking lot or garage would no longer be economically viable. This presents both challenges and opportunities for cities. Cities could lose a substantial amount of annual parking revenue in a future with more AVs.</p>
<p>We see a few ways that cities could strategically adapt parking requirements to prepare for additional travel by self-driving cars.</p>
<p>For example, cities could implement congestion pricing: a fee or tax paid by users to enter the urban core of the city. They could encourage more public and active transportation, like biking and walking. They could also change the rules for parking in areas where it’s now unrestricted and free, or try a combination of these options.</p>
<p>Cities could experiment with what’s called a scaled VMT tax: a fee for an AV to enter a downtown zone based on the number of miles it’s already traveled that day. This option might discourage an increase in housing sprawl with AVs and reduce the number of people using AVs to get downtown. In addition, encouraging AVs to be powered by electricity rather than gasoline would reduce the environmental impact of any additional travel.</p>
<p>Much of the land devoted to parking lots in today’s cities could be converted to parks, housing or commercial spaces, and reducing curb parking could allow for wider bike lanes or sidewalks. To take advantage of changing parking demand, cities could build adaptable parking garages that can be <a href="https://www.citylab.com/design/2013/11/its-time-design-parking-garages-car-less-future/7583/">converted to other uses</a> if they’re no longer needed. Garages with flat floors and exterior ramps, rather than interior ramps, can more easily be converted to commercial uses or housing.</p>
<p>Cities would need to look for other sources of revenues to supplement the money lost from parking taxes, revenues and tickets. Some of these resources may be recovered through VMT and congestion fees, or by replacing underutilized parking structures with new denser uses. </p>
<p>While robotaxis are not here yet, preparing now for changes in downtown parking and infrastructure could help cities respond when privately owned AVs start to hit the streets.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corey Harper is a Presidential Postdoctoral Fellow at Carnegie Mellon University and is supported by funding from the University's Provost's office and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Corey has received funding from the United States Department of Transportation and the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Constantine Samaras receives research funding from the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and Argonne National Laboratory. He is also an Adjunct Senior Researcher with the non-profit, non-partisan RAND Corporation. The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of any organization.</span></em></p>Self-driving cars may someday drop off their owners downtown and then leave to find free parking. What would that mean for cities of the future?Corey Harper, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon UniversityConstantine Samaras, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1182892019-06-13T15:11:04Z2019-06-13T15:11:04ZCars of the future that will help fight climate change – Imagine newsletter #3<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278753/original/file-20190610-52739-9b3czf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C32%2C5472%2C3604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Turning a corner. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/_s5aRlUXtyg">Jp Valery/Unsplash.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Experts <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-will-change-more-in-the-next-decade-than-they-have-in-the-past-century-113585">tell us</a> that cars will change more in the next decade than they have in the past century. And that’s probably just as well, since cars account for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">a significant proportion</a> of global carbon dioxide (C0₂) emissions. Estimates suggest there are more than <a href="https://subscribers.wardsintelligence.com/market-analysis/world-vehicle-population-41-2017">1.37 billion cars</a> worldwide, and this figure is expected to grow to <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-number-of-cars-worldwide-is-set-to-double-by-2040">2 billion by 2040</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278720/original/file-20190610-52771-qsom89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Emissions have risen drastically, in large part thanks to road transport including cars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">Figure 8, chapter 8 in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</a></span>
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<p>There are plenty of innovative ideas about how to tackle polluting emissions from cars: from hyper-efficient <a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-cars-could-cut-emissions-replace-planes-and-free-up-roads-but-not-soon-enough-115123">flying cars</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-fuels-rockets-but-what-about-power-for-daily-life-were-getting-closer-112958">hydrogen fuel cells</a> that emit only water as a byproduct. But as workable solutions for the climate crisis, these are distant prospects compared to electric and driverless cars, which are expected to be on the roads <a href="https://www.ertrac.org/uploads/documentsearch/id57/ERTRAC-CAD-Roadmap-2019.pdf">by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>In our third issue of the Imagine newsletter, academic experts offer their thoughts on how the humble car could evolve to become an unlikely hero in the global fight against climate change – if they’re charged with renewables. From China to the Caribbean, our experts explore initiatives from across the world that will revolutionise the role that cars play. </p>
<p>Whether as part of a fuel-saving, city-wide transport network, or <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/48530488/the-solar-power-charged-electric-cars-making-money">a distributed “battery”</a> for renewables, academics agree that cars of the future could form part of a powerful system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help manage climate change. </p>
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<p><em><strong>What is Imagine?</strong></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1114168">Imagine</a> is a newsletter from The Conversation that presents a vision of a world acting on climate change. Drawing on the collective wisdom of academics in fields from anthropology and zoology to technology and psychology, it investigates the many ways life on Earth could be made fairer and more fulfilling by taking radical action on climate change.</em></p>
<p><em>You are currently reading the web version of the newsletter. Here’s <a href="https://theconversation.createsend.com/campaigns/reports/viewCampaign.aspx?d=r&c=ABC789CD3C77F56A&ID=98DC86BCD112325A2540EF23F30FEDED&temp=False&tx=0">the more elegant email-optimised version</a> subscribers receive. To get Imagine delivered straight to your inbox, <a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1116320">subscribe now</a>.</em></p>
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<h2>Introducing the car, in 2030</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dan-lewis-407344">Dan Lewis</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/claude-c-chibelushi-711362">Claude Chibelushi</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/debi-roberts-711363">Debi Roberts</a> of Staffordshire University combine their expertise in industrial design, cognitive computing and transport engineering to peer into the future, and picture the car in 2030. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-will-change-more-in-the-next-decade-than-they-have-in-the-past-century-113585">Cars will change more in the next decade than they have in the past century</a>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278166/original/file-20190605-40743-1xfq6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278166/original/file-20190605-40743-1xfq6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278166/original/file-20190605-40743-1xfq6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278166/original/file-20190605-40743-1xfq6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278166/original/file-20190605-40743-1xfq6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278166/original/file-20190605-40743-1xfq6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278166/original/file-20190605-40743-1xfq6zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fast forward: Mercedes’ luxurious F015 autonomous concept car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/frankfurtseptember-20-mercedesbenz-f015-luxury-motion-719917177?src=OmsG68JHzirH26Sf6RESWw-1-3">eans/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They predict that interiors will be much more flexible, allowing customisation of colour, light, privacy and layout at the touch of a button – an exciting prospect for passengers. Beyond aesthetics, there are three major changes these experts expect will make cars more efficient and help curb pollution. </p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Electrification:</strong> Cars powered by electricity offer an alternative to polluting fossil fuels. <a href="https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/future-motoring-what-will-cars-be-25-years">Fully electric</a> vehicles <a href="http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/01/global-top-20-december-2018.html">only make up 2%</a> of the global market right now. But their price is predicted to drop below that of petrol cars by the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">mid-2020s</a>, so fully electric vehicles should be a viable choice for a wide range of drivers by 2030. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Automation:</strong> by 2030, the standard car will evolve from merely <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-to-consider-before-speed-limiters-are-added-to-cars-114457">assisting the driver</a> to taking full control of <a href="https://www.ertrac.org/uploads/documentsearch/id57/ERTRAC-CAD-Roadmap-2019.pdf">all aspects of driving</a>, in most conditions. Rural drivers will probably still own their cars, but cities may move away from car ownership to the use of on-demand autonomous vehicles, which should reduce the number of cars on the roads. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Connectivity:</strong> will minimise fuel consumption (and <a href="https://www.its.dot.gov/infographs/predicting_future.htm">improve traffic flow</a>) by allowing cars to synchronise their movement. This will be possible thanks to the <a href="https://interestingengineering.com/iot-revolution-5-ways-the-internet-of-things-will-change-transportation">ever-growing</a> internet of things. We will see sensors designed to <a href="https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2019/01/department-of-transportation-v2x-communications">recognise and communicate</a> with upgraded road signs, markings, networks of cameras, pedestrians and other vehicles.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<h2>The electric car revolution is coming</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jack-barkenbus-424492">Jack Barkenbus</a>, a researcher with the Climate Change Research Network within Vanderbilt University’s Institute for Energy and Environment, the global shift from petroleum-fueled vehicles to electric ones will come sooner rather than later. A key element of an EV’s price is the cost of its batteries, but industry analysts now suggest that <a href="https://www.theicct.org/publications/update-US-2030-electric-vehicle-cost">within five years it will be cheaper</a> to buy an electric car than a petrol-powered one. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-will-come-from-china-not-the-us-116102">The electric vehicle revolution will come from China, not the US</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="JAdSC" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JAdSC/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>China already <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries">makes more than half</a> of the world’s EV batteries, and may go on to produce <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/breakneck-rise-chinas-colossus-electric-car-batteries/">as much as 70%</a> by 2021, even as the demand for electric car batteries grows.</p>
<p>Indeed, most of this demand is coming from within China – the world’s largest automobile market. As Western countries approach peak car ownership, there are still hundreds of millions of Chinese families that <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-risky-drive-new-energy-vehicles">don’t own a car at all</a> – much less two or more. And many of them are buying EVs.</p>
<p>In 2018, <a href="http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/">Chinese sales topped 1.1m cars</a> – that’s more than 55% of all EVs sold in the world, and more than <a href="http://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global-plug-in-vehicle-sales-for-2017-final-results/">three times as many</a> as Chinese customers had bought two years earlier (for comparison, EV sales in the US that year reached just 358,000).</p>
<p><iframe id="wPf6B" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wPf6B/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Barkenbus says: “The EV revolution is coming, but it won’t be driven by the US. Instead, China will be at the forefront.”</p>
<hr>
<h2>Our cities will change as radically as our cars</h2>
<p>Most of the world’s population lives in cities, which <a href="https://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/article/navigating-urban-age-principles-innovations/">account for</a> 75% of global energy use and 76% of C0₂ emissions. As such, researchers <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop-23-three-ways-cities-are-leading-the-fight-against-climate-change-87277">have pointed to a growing focus</a> on the role cities can play in reducing emissions and helping humanity adapt to the impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>According to University of Sheffield academics <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-mayfield-128966">Martin Mayfield</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/giuliano-punzo-677371">Giuliano Punzo</a>, introducing a networked system of electric, autonomous vehicles at a city level would ease congestion, thereby reducing pollution and minimising the time people spend on the road. It would also radically change the face of cities in the future. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The average car spends <a href="https://www.racfoundation.org/research/mobility/spaced-out-perspectives-on-parking">around 90%</a> of its life parked. A shift away from privately owned vehicles towards a service – owned and run by public or private ventures – is a smart and efficient solution that’s going to revolutionise the way traffic flows through cities. But it could also have profound consequences for existing transport systems such as trains, metros and bus services. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Congestion is often caused by too many drivers all trying to take the most direct or convenient route at the same time. Only drivers who take the route early will benefit, while the rest will get caught in traffic – mathematicians call this “<a href="http://www.ams.org/publicoutreach/feature-column/fcarc-anarchy">the price of anarchy</a>”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278516/original/file-20190607-52741-oydu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278516/original/file-20190607-52741-oydu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278516/original/file-20190607-52741-oydu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278516/original/file-20190607-52741-oydu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278516/original/file-20190607-52741-oydu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278516/original/file-20190607-52741-oydu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278516/original/file-20190607-52741-oydu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Best avoided.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/LbATUWEdrPk">Antonio DiCaterina/Unsplash.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Working as a system, driverless cars will be able to distribute themselves across a range of routes to prevent traffic jams and move through the city more efficiently. This kind of system should offer further benefits over time, provided <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-will-change-more-in-the-next-decade-than-they-have-in-the-past-century-113585">useful data</a> collected by autonomous cars is delivered to local or city authorities, that can then work to improve roads as needed. </p>
<p>Even transport between cities could eventually be affected, as autonomous car networks grow. Urban planners will have to balance the value of investments in trains, buses and metros with those toward infrastructure for autonomous cars. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/car-ownership-is-likely-to-become-a-thing-of-the-past-and-so-could-public-transport-110550">Car ownership is likely to become a thing of the past – and so could public transport</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278733/original/file-20190610-52758-19pfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278733/original/file-20190610-52758-19pfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278733/original/file-20190610-52758-19pfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278733/original/file-20190610-52758-19pfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278733/original/file-20190610-52758-19pfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278733/original/file-20190610-52758-19pfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278733/original/file-20190610-52758-19pfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Closed to cars: George Street, Sydney, in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/KtJy7cZV5OQ">Laura Cros/Unsplash.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It will probably be ten to <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldsctech/115/115.pdf">20 years</a> before autonomous vehicles – and the high-speed 5G network they need to connect – are rolled out onto public roads. Meanwhile, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-we-can-reclaim-cities-from-the-car-without-inconveniencing-people-110917">academics have noted</a> that cities around the world are looking to curb car use, as a way of immediately reducing <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">C0₂ emissions</a> to benefit <a href="https://theconversation.com/londons-ultra-low-emission-zone-will-it-make-the-city-healthier-114942">the health of residents</a>, as well as the environment. </p>
<p>Professor or urban planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-kingston-672005">Richard Kingston</a>, and research fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ransford-a-acheampong-680800">Ransford Acheampong</a>, who both specialise in urban planning at the University of Manchester, suggest three measures which can reduce the reliance of city dwellers on cars – without inconveniencing them. </p>
<p><strong>1. Introduce car-free zones and charges</strong></p>
<p>Car-free zones and charges are designed to deter or restrict car use. They can range in size and nature. In some cities, such as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-going-car-free-ban-2017-8?r=US&IR=T">Copenhagen and Brussels</a>, cars are entirely banned from parts of the city centre. Other cities, such as Madrid, have introduced partial bans. </p>
<p>The entire city of Ghent, Belgium, is car free – but public transport, taxis and other permit holders may be allowed to drive through the city at up to five kilometres per hour. Elsewhere, such as in central London, charges are applied to drivers <a href="https://theconversation.com/london-congestion-charge-what-worked-what-didnt-what-next-92478">entering during peak hours</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/londons-new-charge-on-polluting-vehicles-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-76255">using polluting vehicles</a>. </p>
<p><strong>2. Provide public transport alternatives</strong></p>
<p>Residents might take a negative view of such restrictions, if they cause inconvenience or a loss of mobility. An obvious way to address these concerns is for cities to provide people with reliable, flexible and cost-effective public transport. This should pay off in the long run. </p>
<p>Evidence shows that <a href="https://espace.curtin.edu.au/bitstream/handle/20.500.11937/23589/183183_183183.pdf?sequence=2">car use is already decreasing</a> in many cities across Europe, the US and Australia. And <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/young-peoples-travel-whats-changed-and-why">young people</a> – <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2012.736426">especially young men</a> – are delaying learning to drive and are less likely to own a car than the generation before them. If fewer people are going to drive, then public transport needs to be affordable and accessible for both young and old. </p>
<p><strong>3. Reshape the city</strong></p>
<p>Cities need to offer people the opportunity to live closer to shops, employment and recreation, thereby promoting “active” travel such as walking and cycling and reducing car dependence. This can be achieved by building high density, mixed-use developments with affordable housing and excellent green spaces. </p>
<p>Developments across the globe – including <a href="https://masdar.ae/en/masdar-city/the-city/mobility">Masdar City</a> in the United Arab Emirates and <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-great-city">The Great City</a> in China – are prioritising walking and public transit over cars, while also experimenting with electric and driverless vehicles. These new developments aim to provide basic services within walking distance, create safe spaces for people to walk and provide public transit that uses clean energy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-we-can-reclaim-cities-from-the-car-without-inconveniencing-people-110917">Climate change: we can reclaim cities from the car without inconveniencing people</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A few things need to be addressed to properly unlock the potential of electric vehicles</h2>
<p>While EVs have great potential to reduce emissions, they won’t as long as they’re charged using electricity generated from the same old dirty fossil fuels. Global electricity consumption from EVs is estimated to grow to <a href="https://www.drax.com/energy-policy/electric-vehicles-will-impact-global-power-demand/">1,800TWh by 2040</a> – that’s roughly <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/736152/Ch5.pdf">five times</a> the current annual electricity use of UK. </p>
<p>If this energy isn’t sourced from renewables, however, <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-wont-save-the-planet-without-a-clean-energy-overhaul-they-could-increase-pollution-118012">academics have calculated</a> that it would mean a potentially catastrophic increase in global C0₂ emissions – even if old, polluting combustion engines are taken off the roads. As such, the transition to renewables will be a key factor in whether cars can mitigate the climate crisis. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/parakram-pyakurel-651784">Parakram Pyakurel</a>, a postdoctoral researcher in renewable energy systems at Solent University, offers some solutions to key problems, to help ensure EVs don’t end up costing the planet. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278690/original/file-20190610-52762-1wbt02e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278690/original/file-20190610-52762-1wbt02e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278690/original/file-20190610-52762-1wbt02e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278690/original/file-20190610-52762-1wbt02e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278690/original/file-20190610-52762-1wbt02e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278690/original/file-20190610-52762-1wbt02e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278690/original/file-20190610-52762-1wbt02e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Powering up.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-car-charging-front-house-1406506445?src=jaLB-HPj8E3fAKnebHVAAA-6-2">Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-wont-save-the-planet-without-a-clean-energy-overhaul-they-could-increase-pollution-118012">Electric cars won't save the planet without a clean energy overhaul – they could increase pollution</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Problem: the load on the energy grid – caused by people charging their EVs in the evening, after work – <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-potential-impact-of-electric-vehicles-on-global-energy-systems">could cause power supply issues</a> at a community or city level.</strong> These systems may need an upgrade. Or, energy suppliers could introduce a tariff that is higher during evenings and lower during times when there’s less demand. Smart charging is another solution, which uses <a href="https://crowd-charge.com/">smart systems and artificial intelligence</a> to charge more EVs when power production from local renewable sources is at a high. </p>
<p><strong>Problem: the high cost of EVs and the lack of available charging stations <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Electricity-Electric-Vehicles-and-Public-Policy-8-Key-Takeaways.pdf">could stall uptake</a>.</strong> Governments can address these obstacles by subsidising EVs, as is being <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-will-come-from-china-not-the-us-116102">done in China</a>. Even on a city level, authorities <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-we-can-reclaim-cities-from-the-car-without-inconveniencing-people-110917">can encourage people</a> to use EVs through taxes or special clean air zones, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/londons-new-charge-on-polluting-vehicles-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-76255">London’s new Ultra Low Emission Zone</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Problem: there’s a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/cobalt-potential-bottleneck-transition-electric-mobility">scarcity of precious metals</a> like cobalt and lithium, which are integral to EV batteries.</strong> Alternative designs that don’t rely on scarce elements are <a href="https://energypost.eu/will-toyotas-new-battery-design-solve-the-looming-shortage-of-vital-metals-for-renewables/">currently being explored</a> by car manufacturers. And recycling plants dedicated to processing metals and other scarce elements for reuse can be expanded.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Some countries are already showing the world what green transport systems can do</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-rogers-275269">Tom Rogers</a>, a senior lecturer in renewable energy and energy management at Coventry University, teamed up with <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/destine-gay-739022">Destine Gay</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rebekah-shirley-440192">Rebekah Shirley</a>, researchers in the West Indies and Kenya respectively, to conduct <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2018.09.006">a fascinating study</a> into the way small islands – in this case, Barbados – can provide the perfect proving ground for the transition to fully electrified transport. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278688/original/file-20190610-52771-3839y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278688/original/file-20190610-52771-3839y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278688/original/file-20190610-52771-3839y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278688/original/file-20190610-52771-3839y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278688/original/file-20190610-52771-3839y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278688/original/file-20190610-52771-3839y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278688/original/file-20190610-52771-3839y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar panels, soaking up the sun in the Caribbean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/huge-renewable-green-energy-solar-farm-495309028?src=sXlW4eZus4n7l1DL3XZ5mw-1-44">Shutterstock.</a></span>
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<ul>
<li>Several Caribbean islands are now aiming for <a href="https://theconversation.com/jamaica-leads-in-richard-branson-backed-plan-for-a-caribbean-climate-revolution-105478">100% renewable energy</a>.</li>
<li>Islands will need to store excess energy, for when demand exceeds the supply from wind and solar energy. </li>
<li>EVs act as a distributed storage system, where owners can sell electricity back to grid operators while their car is plugged in. </li>
<li><a href="https://www.drivingelectric.com/your-questions-answered/324/what-vehicle-grid-v2g-charging">Vehicle-to-grid</a> charging helps the grid meet demand when there is fluctuating electricity generation from renewables.</li>
<li>EVs can even act as mobile, back-up energy storage, to help with recovery and rescue efforts after <a href="https://www.upi.com/Record-2017-hurricane-season-cost-370B-hundreds-of-lives/7711511317614/">hurricanes</a> and tsunamis. </li>
</ul>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zero-carbon-electric-transport-is-already-in-reach-for-small-islands-115344">Zero-carbon electric transport is already in reach for small islands</a>
</strong>
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<p>Barbados is now the <a href="https://gisbarbados.gov.bb/blog/barbados-third-highest-user-of-electric-vehicles/">third highest user of electric vehicles in the world</a>. If all 132,000 vehicles currently on Barbados were electric, and vehicle-to-grid charging were adopted, that would provide a storage capacity of 0.5GWh. This would go some of the way towards the 3GWh that is needed for a <a href="http://www.energy.gov.bb/web/draft-interim-report-re-prices-and-mechanisms">100% renewable energy system</a> on Barbados. </p>
<h2>Further reading</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-cars-could-cut-emissions-replace-planes-and-free-up-roads-but-not-soon-enough-115123">Flying cars could cut emissions, replace planes, and free up roads – but not soon enough</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-once-theyre-on-the-road-human-drivers-should-be-banned-118293">Driverless cars: once they’re on the road, human drivers should be banned</a></li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/londons-ultra-low-emission-zone-will-it-make-the-city-healthier-114942">London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone – will it make the city healthier?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/some-softer-solutions-to-nairobis-traffic-pollution-problem-117676">Some softer solutions to Nairobi’s traffic pollution problem</a> </li>
</ul>
<hr>
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Academic experts on how the humble car could evolve to become an unlikely hero in the global fight against climate change.Emily Lindsay Brown, Editor for Cities and Young People, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.