tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/electricity-132/articlesElectricity – The Conversation2024-03-21T12:22:54Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170732024-03-21T12:22:54Z2024-03-21T12:22:54ZCalifornia is wrestling with electricity prices – here’s how to design a system that covers the cost of fixing the grid while keeping prices fair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582593/original/file-20240318-22-5gynnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1492%2C995&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As more homes like these in Folsom, Calif., add solar power, electricity pricing becomes more complicated.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaSolarPanels/cda216b3bcfe42e9bf425a353b24f812/photo">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Small-scale solar power, also known as rooftop or distributed solar, has grown considerably in the U.S. over the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341">past decade</a>. It provides electricity without emitting air pollutants or climate-warming greenhouse gases, and it meets local energy demand without requiring costly investments in transmission and distribution systems. </p>
<p>However, its expansion is making it harder for electric utilities and power grid managers to design fair and efficient retail electricity rates – the prices that households pay.</p>
<p>Under traditional electricity pricing, customers pay one charge per kilowatt-hour of electricity consumption that covers both the energy they use and the fixed costs of maintaining the grid. As more people adopt rooftop solar, they buy less energy from the grid. Fewer customers are left to shoulder utilities’ fixed costs, potentially making power more expensive for everyone. </p>
<p>This trend can drive more customers to leave the system and raise prices further – a scenario known as the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2017/09/25/three-ways-electric-utilities-can-avoid-a-death-spiral/?sh=46108d9b758d">utility death spiral</a>. One <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25087">2018 study</a> calculated that two-thirds of recent electricity distribution cost increases at California’s three investor-owned utilities were associated with the growth of residential solar. </p>
<p>With abundant sun and solar-friendly policies, California has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341#:%7E:text=We%20estimate%20that%20the%20United,MW">36% of U.S. small-scale solar capacity</a>, much more than any other state. And the state is engaged in a heated debate over <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2023/07/electricity-bills/">pricing electricity</a> in ways designed to make energy less expensive for low-income households. </p>
<p>We study <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/Intel2Grid">energy markets</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nKvcnXMAAAAJ&hl=en">public policy affecting energy and the environment</a>, and have analyzed various <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">retail electricity rate structures</a> and their economic impacts on power producers and consumers. Our key finding is that an income-based, fixed-charge rate structure of the type that California is currently considering offers the most efficient and equitable solution – if it is designed correctly.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The California Legislature approved fixed-rate electricity charges, based on income, in 2022. Now, state utility regulators are weighing a proposal that would formalize them.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Two-part power bills</h2>
<p>The debate over fixed charges began in 2022, when the California Legislature <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/utilities/bill-would-end-california-experiment-with-income-based-electric-bills">enacted an energy bill</a> that ordered state regulators to study income-based fixed charges and decide whether to adopt them by July 1, 2024. Then the state’s three largest utilities – Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas and Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric – <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/energy-division/documents/demand-response/demand-response-workshops/advanced-der---demand-flexibility-management/joint-ious-opening-testimony-exhibit-1.pdf">submitted a proposal</a> to the state Public Utilities Commission in mid-2023 that would separate retail bills into two parts: a fixed charge and a variable charge. </p>
<p>The fixed charge would be a preset monthly fee, independent of energy usage but tied to income levels, so wealthier customers would <a href="https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/02/utility-bills-reform-income-based/">pay a larger share of grid maintenance costs</a>. The variable charge would be based on the amount of electricity consumed and would cover the actual costs of electricity production and delivery. </p>
<p>Historically, these actual costs have typically ranged between <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">4 to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour</a>. Today, the average residential rate in California <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">often exceeds 30 cents per kilowatt-hour</a> because it covers fixed costs as well as electricity use.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white utility truck drives toward a transformer tower framed by hills." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Southern California Edison truck at a transformer tower in Sylmar, Calif. California utilities are burying thousands of miles of power lines in an effort to prevent a fraying grid from sparking wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaWildfiresUtility/65c4885a6bde436d9126f7b12b9d8959/photo">AP Photo/Christian Monterrosa</a></span>
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<h2>Who benefits?</h2>
<p>A two-part billing system that separates fixed costs from variable usage charges offers potential benefits for both consumers and utilities.</p>
<p>For utilities, the fixed charge offers a stable revenue stream. The companies know how many households they serve, and they can plan on the fixed amounts that those households will pay each month. Households that go solar would still pay the fixed charge, since most of them draw electricity from the grid when the sun doesn’t shine. </p>
<p>This approach provides financial stability for the utility and access to the grid for all. Consumers would benefit because with a certain amount of income guaranteed, utilities could charge significantly less per kilowatt-hour for the actual electricity that households use. </p>
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<p>One significant concern is that if electricity costs less, people may use more of it, which could undermine efforts toward energy conservation and lead to an increase in emissions. In our view, the way to address this risk is by fine-tuning the two-part billing structure so that it covers only a portion of the utilities’ costs through fixed charges and incorporates the rest into the variable usage rates. </p>
<p>Put another way, combining a lower fixed charge with a higher variable charge would ensure that utilities can still cover their fixed costs effectively, while encouraging mindful energy use among consumers. Ensuring affordable electricity for consumers, fair cost recovery for utilities and overall fairness and efficiency in the energy market requires striking a delicate balance.</p>
<p>Another argument from critics, often labeled “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3GDHaOJeIp/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==">energy socialism</a>,” asserts that higher-income households might end up <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/06/california-income-based-electricity-fees-2025">subsidizing excessive electricity use</a> by lower-income households under the income-based rate structure. In our view, this perception is inaccurate. </p>
<p>Wealthy households would pay more to maintain the grid, via larger fixed charges, than poorer households, but would not subsidize lower-income households’ energy use. All income groups would pay the same rate for each additional kilowatt-hour of electricity that they use. Decisions on energy use would remain economically driven, regardless of consumers’ income level. </p>
<p><iframe id="WCZvM" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WCZvM/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Fixed fees are too big</h2>
<p>While our research supports California utilities’ approach in principle, we believe their proposal has shortcomings – notably in the proposed income brackets. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/06/20/california-electricity-bills-income-based/70331875007/">As currently framed</a>, households with annual incomes between US$28,000 and $69,000 would pay a fixed fee of $20 to $34 per month. Households earning between $69,000 and $180,000 would pay $51 to $73 per month, and those earning more than $180,000 would pay $85 to $128. </p>
<p>The middle-income bracket starts just above California’s <a href="https://statisticalatlas.com/state/California/Household-Income">median household income</a>. Consequently, nearly half of all California households could find themselves paying a substantial monthly fee – $51 to $73 – regardless of their actual electricity usage. </p>
<p>It could be hard to convince consumers to pay significant fixed fees for intangible services, especially middle-income residents who have either gone solar or may do so. Not surprisingly, the proposal has encountered considerable <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/05/08/the-income-graduated-fixed-charges-in-california-will-harm-customers-with-low-electric-bills/">pushback from the solar industry</a>. </p>
<h2>Finding the sweet spot</h2>
<p>In response to public outcry, California lawmakers recently introduced <a href="https://legiscan.com/CA/text/AB1999/id/2908602">Assembly Bill 1999</a>, which would replace the income-graduated fixed-charge requirement with fixed charges of $5 per month for low-income customers and up to $10 per month for others. In our view, this reaction goes too far in the other direction. </p>
<p>Capping fixed charges at such low levels would force utilities to hike their energy use rates to cover fixed costs – again, risking the death spiral scenario. Our research indicates that there is a <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">range for the fixed charge</a> that would cover a reasonable share of utilities’ fixed costs, but is not high enough to burden consumers.</p>
<p>Without utility cost data, we can’t pinpoint this range precisely. However, based on <a href="https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M520/K533/520533300.PDF">estimates of utilities’ costs</a>, we believe the caps proposed in AB 1999 are too low and could end up unfairly burdening those the bill aims to protect.</p>
<p>In our research, based on a hypothetical case study, we found a sweet spot in which fixed charges cover about 40% of utilities’ fixed costs. Charges at this level provide maximum benefit to consumers, although they reduce energy producers’ profits. </p>
<p>Our findings are similar to an <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">alternative proposal</a> jointly presented by <a href="https://www.turn.org/">The Utility Reform Network</a>, a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization, and the <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/">Natural Resources Defense Council</a>, an environmental advocacy group. This plan suggests a two-part rate structure with an average fixed charge of about $36 per month. Low-income households would pay $5 per month, and those earning over $150,000 yearly would pay about $62.</p>
<p>We believe this proposal moves in the right direction by ensuring fair contributions to grid costs, while also encouraging efficient energy use and investment in clean energy infrastructure. It could act as a guide for other U.S. states searching for methods to balance utility fixed-cost recovery with fair pricing and continued growth of small-scale solar power.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to remove unsubstantiated information about the 2019 Saddleridge wildfire in California provided by AP in a photo caption.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217073/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>California is considering a controversial proposal for utilities to charge customers for electricity based partly on household income. Two scholars explain how this approach could benefit everyone.Yihsu Chen, Professor of Technology Management in Sustainability, University of California, Santa CruzAndrew L. Liu, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172732024-03-18T02:28:19Z2024-03-18T02:28:19ZEven as the fusion era dawns, we’re still in the Steam Age<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582432/original/file-20240318-30-py4kah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C36%2C5925%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/steam-turbine-rotor-1008297052">SmartS/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Steam locomotives clattering along railway tracks. Paddle steamers churning down the Murray. Dreadnought battleships powered by steam engines. </p>
<p>Many of us think the age of steam has ended. But while the steam engine has been superseded by internal combustion engines and now electric motors, the modern world still relies on steam. Almost all thermal power plants, from coal to nuclear, must have steam to function. (Gas plants usually do not).</p>
<p>But why? It’s because of something we discovered millennia ago. In the first century CE, the ancient Greeks invented the aeolipile – a steam turbine. Heat turned water into steam, and steam has a very useful property: it’s an easy-to-make gas that can push. </p>
<p>This simple fact means that even as the dream of fusion power <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a46973142/nuclear-fusion/">creeps closer</a>, we will still be in the Steam Age. The first commercial fusion plant will rely on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/magnetic-fusion-confinement-with-tokamaks-and-stellarators#:%7E:text=While%20tokamaks%20are%20better%20at,a%20prospective%20fusion%20energy%20plant">cutting-edge technology</a> able to contain plasma far hotter than the sun’s core – but it will still be wedded to a humble steam turbine converting heat to movement to electricity.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="inside a fusion torus" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even high-tech fusion plants will use steam to produce electricity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JET_vessel_internal_view.jpg">EUROfusion/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>Why are we still reliant on steam?</h2>
<p>Boiling water takes a significant amount of energy, the highest by far of the common liquids we’re familiar with. Water takes about 2.5 times more energy to evaporate than ethanol does, and 60% more than ammonia liquids. </p>
<p>Why do we use steam rather than other gases? Water is cheap, nontoxic and easy to transform from liquid to energetic gas before condensing back to liquid for use again and again.</p>
<p>Steam has lasted this long because we have an abundance of water, covering 71% of Earth’s surface, and water is a useful way to convert thermal energy (heat) to mechanical energy (movement) to electrical energy (electricity). We seek electricity because it can be easily transmitted and can be used to do work for us in many areas. </p>
<p>When water is turned to steam inside a closed container, it expands hugely and increases the pressure. High pressure steam can store huge amounts of heat, as can any gas. If given an outlet, the steam will surge through it with high flow rates. Put a turbine in its exit path and the force of the escaping steam will spin the turbine’s blades. Electromagnets convert this mechanical movement to electricity. The steam condenses back to water and the process starts again. </p>
<p>Steam engines used coal to heat water to create steam to drive the engine. Nuclear fission splits atoms to make heat to boil water. Nuclear fusion will force heavy isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium and tritium) to fuse into helium-3 atoms and create even more heat – to boil water to make steam to drive turbines to make electricity. </p>
<p>If you looked only at the end process in most thermal power plants – coal, diesel, nuclear fission or even nuclear fusion – you would see the old technology of steam taken as far as it can be taken. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-decades-of-research-are-still-needed-before-fusion-can-be-used-as-clean-energy-196758">Nuclear fusion breakthrough: Decades of research are still needed before fusion can be used as clean energy</a>
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<p>The steam turbines driving the large electrical alternators which produce 60% of the world’s electricity are things of beauty. Hundreds of years of metallurgical technology, design and intricate manufacturing has all but perfected the steam turbine.</p>
<p>Will we keep using steam? New technologies produce electricity without using steam at all. Solar panels rely on incoming photons hitting electrons in silicon and creating a charge, while wind turbines operate like steam turbines except with wind blowing the turbine, not steam. Some forms of energy storage, such as pumped hydro, use turbines but for liquid water, not steam, while batteries use no steam at all. </p>
<p>These technologies are rapidly becoming important sources of energy and storage. But steam isn’t going away. If we use thermal power plants, we’ll likely still be using steam. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="steam turbine in power plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Thermal power plants rely on giant steam turbines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industry-installations-power-turbines-49207051">rtem/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Why can’t we just convert heat to electricity?</h2>
<p>You might wonder why we need so many steps. Why can’t we convert heat directly to electricity? </p>
<p>It is possible. Thermo-electric devices are already in use in satellites and space probes. </p>
<p>Built from special alloys such as lead-tellurium, these devices rely on a temperature gap between hot and cold junctions between these materials. The greater the temperature difference, the greater voltage they can generate. </p>
<p>The reason these devices aren’t everywhere is they only produce direct current (DC) at low voltages and are between 16–22% efficient at converting heat to electricity. By contrast, state of the art thermal power plants are up to 46% efficient. </p>
<p>If we wanted to run a society on these heat-conversion engines, we’d need large arrays of these devices to produce high enough DC current and then use inverters and transformers to convert it to the alternating current we’re used to. So while you might avoid steam, you end up having to add new conversions to make the electricity useful.</p>
<p>There are other ways to turn heat into electricity. High temperature solid-oxide fuel cells have been under development <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/solid-oxide-fuel-cells">for decades</a>. These run hot, at between 500–1,000°C, and can burn hydrogen or methanol (without an actual flame) to produce DC electricity. </p>
<p>These fuel cells are up to 60% efficient and potentially even higher. While promising, these fuel cells are not yet ready for prime time. They have expensive catalysts and short lifespans due to the intense heat. But progress is <a href="https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/07/20230713-bosch.html">being made</a>. </p>
<p>Until technologies like these mature, we’re stuck with steam as a way to convert heat to electricity. That’s not so bad – steam works. </p>
<p>When you see a steam locomotive rattle past, you might think it’s a quaint technology of the past. But our civilisation still relies very heavily on steam. If fusion power arrives, steam will help power the future too. The Steam Age never really ended. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-power-the-future-elon-musks-battery-packs-or-twiggy-forrests-green-hydrogen-truth-is-well-need-both-191333">What will power the future: Elon Musk's battery packs or Twiggy Forrest's green hydrogen? Truth is, we'll need both</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreas Helwig receives funding from Federal Government Department of Education SURF and RRC research grants. </span></em></p>In the 19th century, the world ran on steam. In the 21st century, little has changed. Every thermal power plant still relies on steam as a final stage.Andreas Helwig, Associate Professor, Electro-Mechanical Engineering, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225712024-03-05T14:00:28Z2024-03-05T14:00:28ZLithium-ion batteries don’t work well in the cold − a battery researcher explains the chemistry at low temperatures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579001/original/file-20240229-20-z7oy0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2120%2C1414&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Why do batteries lose charge more quickly when it's cold? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/man-charging-electric-car-in-front-his-cabin-in-royalty-free-image/1977511649?phrase=battery+cold&adppopup=true">Halfpoint Images/Moment</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rechargeable batteries are great for storing energy and powering electronics from smartphones to electric vehicles. In cold environments, however, they can be more difficult to charge and may even catch on fire. </p>
<p>I’m a mechanical engineering professor who’s been interested in batteries since college. I now lead a <a href="https://research.drexel.edu/mem/changlab">battery research group</a> at Drexel University. </p>
<p>In just this past decade, I have watched the <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/">price of lithium-ion batteries drop</a> as the production market <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries">has grown much larger</a>. Future projections predict the market could reach <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular">thousands of GWh per year by 2030</a>, a significant increase. </p>
<p>But, lithium-ion batteries aren’t perfect – this rise comes with risks, such as their tendency to slow down during cold weather and even catch on fire.</p>
<h2>Behind the Li-ion battery</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/electrochemical-energy-storage">electrochemical energy storage</a> within batteries works by storing electricity <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/ion-physics">in the form of ions</a>. Ions are atoms that have a nonzero charge because they have either too many or not enough electrons. </p>
<p>When you plug in your electric car or phone, the electricity provided by the outlet <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-1psMHSpKs&ab_channel=TheLimitingFactor">drives these ions</a> from the battery’s positive electrode into its negative electrode. The electrodes are solid materials in a battery that can store ions, and all batteries have both a positive and a negative electrode. </p>
<p>Electrons pass through the battery as electricity. With each electron that passes to one electrode, a lithium ion also passes into the same electrode. This ensures the balance of charges in the battery. As you drive your car, the stored ions in the negative electrode move back to the positive electrode, and the resulting flow of electricity powers the motor. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing three boxes, one labeled cathode, one labeled electrolyte, and one labeled anode. Small circles representing lithium ions move to the anode to charge and the cathode to discharge." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578759/original/file-20240228-8828-q6kh1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">When a lithium-ion battery delivers energy to a device, lithium ions – atoms that carry an electrical charge – move from the negative electrode, the anode, to the positive electrode, the cathode. The ions move in reverse when recharging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/argonne/5029455937">Argonne National Laboratory</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<p>While AA or AAA batteries can power small electronics, they can be used only once and cannot be charged. Rechargeable Li-ion batteries can operate for thousands of cycles of full charge and discharge. For each cycle, they can also store a much higher amount of charge than an AA or AAA battery.</p>
<p>Since lithium is the lightest metal, it has a high <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/C3EE40795K">specific capacity</a>, meaning it can store a <a href="https://chang-lab.notion.site/How-To-Become-a-Battery-Expert-20a8edebe395403c9a158d7caca06ef4?pvs=4">huge amount of charge per weight</a>. This is why lithium-ion batteries are useful not just for portable electronics but for powering modes of transportation with limited weight or volume, such as electric cars. </p>
<h2>Battery fires</h2>
<p>However, lithium-ion batteries have risks that AA or AAA batteries don’t. For one, they’re more likely to catch on fire. For example, the number of <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/e-bike-battery-fires-keep-climbing-in-nyc">electric bike battery fires</a> reported in New York City has increased from 30 to nearly 300 in the past five years. </p>
<p>Lots of different issues can cause a battery fire. Poorly manufactured cells could contain defects, such as trace impurities or particles left behind from the manufacturing process, that increase the risk of an internal failure. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A car in a garage is on fire with the door cracked open, a firefighter carrying a hose runs towards it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578754/original/file-20240228-30-b8mmfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles have a higher risk of catching on fire when it’s cold out.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ElectricCarsBatteryFires/0624a4c4cadb4ee0be42d58b8aab0161/photo?Query=ev%20battery%20fire&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=300&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=0&vs=true&vs=true">Orange County Sheriff’s Department/National Transportation Safety Board via AP</a></span>
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<p>Climate can also affect battery operation. <a href="https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/">Electric vehicle sales</a> have increased across the U.S., particularly in cold regions such as the Northeast and Midwest, where the frigid temperatures can hinder battery performance. </p>
<p>Batteries contain fluids called electrolytes, and cold temperatures cause fluids to flow more slowly. So, the electrolytes in batteries slow and thicken in the cold, causing the lithium ions inside to move slower. This slowdown can prevent the lithium ions from properly inserting into the electrodes. Instead, they may deposit on the electrode surface and form <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xcrp.2020.100035">lithium metal</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The molecules in fluids move slower at colder temperatures – the same thing happens inside batteries.</span></figcaption>
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<p>If too much lithium deposits on the electrode’s surface during charging, it may cause an internal short circuit. This process can <a href="https://theconversation.com/lithium-ion-battery-fires-are-a-growing-public-safety-concern-heres-how-to-reduce-the-risk-209359">start a battery fire</a>.</p>
<h2>Making safer batteries</h2>
<p><a href="https://research.coe.drexel.edu/mem/changlab">My research group</a>, along with many others, is studying how to make batteries that operate more efficiently in the cold. </p>
<p>For example, researchers are exploring swapping out the usual battery electrolyte and replacing it with an alternative electrolyte that doesn’t thicken at cold temperatures. Another potential option is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2024/01/19/electric-vehicle-battery-cold/">heating up the battery pack</a> before charging so that the charging process occurs at a warmer temperature. </p>
<p>My group is also investigating new types of batteries beyond lithium ion. These could be battery types that are more stable at wider temperature ranges, types that don’t even use liquid electrolytes at all, or batteries that use sodium instead of lithium. <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/05/11/1072865/how-sodium-could-change-the-game-for-batteries/">Sodium-ion batteries</a> could work well and cost less, as sodium is a very abundant resource.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01208-9">Solid-state batteries</a> use solid electrolytes that aren’t flammable, which reduces the risk of fire. But these batteries don’t work quite as well as Li-ion batteries, so it’ll take more research to tell whether these are a good option.</p>
<p>Lithium-ion batteries power technologies that people across the country use every day, and research in these areas aims to find solutions that will make this technology even safer for the consumer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Chang receives funding from Solid Energy Systems, Inc., Electric Power Research Institute, Drexel University. Wesley Chang consults for The Electrochemical Society. </span></em></p>Electric vehicles are catching on across the US, but they’re also catching on fire in colder regions like the Northeast and Midwest.Wesley Chang, Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Mechanics, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189732024-02-21T21:59:26Z2024-02-21T21:59:26ZThermoelectric technologies can help power a zero-carbon future<p>Thermometers are an under-appreciated marvel of human ingenuity built upon an understanding of relatively simple physical principles. Mercury and alcohol thermometers rely on the volume of liquids growing or shrinking in reaction to temperature change. Contactless <a href="https://www.omega.ca/en/resources/infrared-thermometer-how-work#:%7E:text=Infrared%20thermometers%20employ%20a%20lens,absorbed%20and%20converts%20into%20heat.">infrared thermometers, by contrast, read the thermal radiation emitted by any object, from frying pans to the human body</a>. </p>
<p>While digital thermometers, such as infrared, are a relatively recent invention other types <a href="https://www.whipplemuseum.cam.ac.uk/explore-whipple-collections/meteorology/early-thermometers-and-temperature-scales">have been around for hundreds of years</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.omega.com/en-us/resources/how-thermocouples-work">There is, however, another type of digital thermometer known as a thermocouple. Thermocouples are commonly used in industrial applications</a> and leverage a natural phenomenon whereby the meeting of two different temperatures generates electrical current. This principle can be used both to measure temperatures and, more excitingly, to actually harvest useful electricity from everyday temperature changes. I am part of a team working to help make this technology a practical reality.</p>
<h2>Thermoelectric</h2>
<p>In 1821, <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=1u0ZWscprXkC&printsec=frontcover&redir_esc=y&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false">German physicist Thomas Johann Seebeck</a> observed that a nearby magnetic compass needle was deflected by a closed electrical circuit made of two different metals. Two years later, physicists <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mser.2018.09.001">Hans Christian Ørsted and Jean Baptiste Joseph reported that the interaction of the two metals, once connected in a circuit, had generated an electrical current because one was warmer than the other.</a></p>
<p>This physical phenomenon was later named the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/seebeck-effect">Seebeck Effect</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mser.2018.09.001">Interestingly, Italian physicist Alessandro Volta — in whose honour the term volt is named — had observed and explained the same phenomenon in 1794</a> using nerves from a dead frog. Volta generated an electric current using a metal wire, two glasses of water (each at a different temperature) and the nerves of the frog as an electrical bridge. </p>
<p>A grisly image, but one which foreshadowed future scientific breakthroughs.</p>
<p>Excited at the possibilities, scientists worked to exploit the findings by making and harvesting useful amounts of electric current simply by connecting two materials at different temperatures. Today we call this <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2010/explained-thermoelectricity-0427">thermoelectricity</a>, and we still use it in very specific contexts.</p>
<p>NASA has utilized the advantages of thermoelectric technology to make deep space exploration possible by coupling thermoelectric generators with radioactive material as the fuel.</p>
<p>Launches using radioisotope thermoelectric generators include the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/mission/overview/">Curiosity Mars rover in 2011</a>, <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/25181/nasas-perseverance-rover-launches-to-mars/">the Perseverance in 2020</a>, and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-dragonfly-will-fly-around-titan-looking-for-origins-signs-of-life/">the planned launch of the Dragonfly</a> <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/dragonfly-launch-moved-to-2027/">in 2027 to Saturn’s moon Titan</a>. </p>
<p>This piece of technology even breached the realm of popular culture as a result of its central role in the 2011 novel — and later film of the same name — <em>The Martian</em> by Andy Weir. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A trailer for <em>The Martian</em> starring Matt Damon. A radioisotope thermoelectric generator features heavily in the film.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Closer to home</h2>
<p>Here on Earth, <a href="https://www.globalte.com/products/generators/tegs">thermoelectric generators have been used in remote areas to generate electricity</a>. For example, <a href="https://www.sunset.com/travel/camping/camp-stove-charger-biolite">a small thermoelectric module, connected to a portable boiler or stove, can charge your phone while you’re camping at the expense of fuel</a>. This is but a small example; thermoelectric devices could do much more.</p>
<p>Human societies make excessive amounts of heat through numerous processes from cooking, industrial activity to even air conditioning and refrigeration. After these processes are finished, almost all of this heat dissipates without capturing the electricity it could provide. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-reuse-waste-energy-to-achieve-net-zero-heating-systems-209416">Why we need to reuse waste energy to achieve net-zero heating systems</a>
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<p>For example, only about one-third of the energy produced in a gasoline-powered car is used while <a href="https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/how-efficient-is-your-cars-engine">the other two-thirds is lost as heat</a>. That lost heat could be captured to power thermoelectric devices, which would <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-hev.shtml#:%7E:text=Like%20conventional%20gasoline%2Dpowered%20vehicles,the%20engine%2C%20and%20combustion%20inefficiency">dramatically improve fuel efficiency</a>.</p>
<p>We could do the same in factories and in many other places where heat is a wasted by-product of another function. And building these systems would help us <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">reach our net-zero target by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>So, why on Earth (literally) are we not using thermoelectrics to recycle wasted heat?</p>
<p>Simply put, a thermoelectric device requires a material which must conduct electricity well and conduct heat poorly. Without these characteristics the temperature difference, and generative potential, between the two sides of the device will not be maintained.</p>
<p>Copper wire, for example, conducts electricity very well but also is an excellent heat conductor. These qualities make for great wire but also leaves copper as a poor candidate in this application. </p>
<h2>Building the materials</h2>
<p>The ideal materials for thermoelectricity do not exist naturally. As such, the priority in the field of thermoelectric research is to create materials that are both efficient and inexpensive, so they can be mass-produced and widely applied — ideally at minimal resource cost. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1369-7021(11)70278-4">Some known thermoelectric material candidates include lead, however, its toxicity and environmental impacts rules it out as a viable candidate</a>. More benign alternatives must be found.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-bridge-to-nowhere-natural-gas-will-not-lead-canada-to-a-sustainable-energy-future-176734">A bridge to nowhere: Natural gas will not lead Canada to a sustainable energy future</a>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2TC02448A">Currently, a few thermoelectric materials seem to have the potential to help mitigate the climate crisis we are facing.</a></p>
<p>Along with my colleagues at McMaster University, I am working with industrial partners to help develop cheaper, more reliable new materials. Central to this is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intermet.2020.106831">understanding the changes in performance</a> between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/C8DT02521E">various materials</a>. We hope to develop materials which perform well both in the lab, and at scale. </p>
<p>All too often electricity is discussed in terms of how we can generate more. We need more plants, more fuel, more solar — more everything. We suggest that this is only half the picture. We must also learn to smartly utilize all stages of the energy life-cycle to not just generate but also store, and use thermoelectric technology to capture the electricity in that wasted heat. </p>
<p>Only by doing this can we truly make a more efficient power grid and help drive a carbon-free future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chun-wan Timothy Lo was an Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship-Doctoral (CGS-D) holder from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) during the course of his doctoral studies. Lo currently is a program member of the McCall MacBain Postdoctoral Fellows Teaching and Leadership Program from McMaster University. </span></em></p>Human societies produce huge amounts of excess heat. Turning it into electricity could play a key role in achieving a net-zero society.Chun-wan Timothy Lo, McCall MacBain Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234942024-02-13T21:10:54Z2024-02-13T21:10:54ZA major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575377/original/file-20240213-20-i4kmb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4181%2C2783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Loy Yang power station </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Half a million homes and businesses in Victoria were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-13/power-outage-victoria-loy-yang-a-down-storms-damage-transmission/103461222">left without power</a> late on Tuesday following a major power outage. The disruption occurred when severe winds knocked over several high-voltage electricity transmission towers, causing all four units of the Loy Yang A coal-fired power station to trip and go offline.</p>
<p>Victorian Energy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-news-storms-bring-down-powerlines-and-rip-apart-backyards-in-victoria/3cdd39ee-9648-4c53-80f0-14f9043539e1">described</a> the blackout as “one of the largest outage events in the state’s history”. </p>
<p>The event has prompted questions about the reliability of the state’s electricity grid. But it’s important to note these extreme winds would have seriously disrupted any power system. It has little to do with the mix of renewable energy and conventional fossil fuels. </p>
<p>As climate change worsens, we have much work ahead to ensure our electricity grids cope with severe weather events. But in this case, the fact that a complete system blackout was avoided is testament to the resilience of the system.</p>
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<h2>A day of wild weather</h2>
<p>An extreme storm, including strong winds and lightning, tore through Victoria on Tuesday afternoon. It caused two transmission lines near Geelong to collapse, prompting several generators to disconnect from the grid and cutting power to parts of the network.</p>
<p>Other customers lost power after the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) ordered “load shedding”. This involves temporarily cutting off electricity supply to some customers to keep the network stable and prevent damage.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/power-system-event-in-victoria">a statement from AEMO</a>, the storm also damaged hundreds of powerlines and power poles and restoring electricity to all customers “may take days if not weeks”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here's why</a>
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<h2>What happened at Loy Yang A?</h2>
<p>The disruption to electricity transmission caused AGL’s Loy Yang A generator to go offline. This was an automatic response known as a “fault ride-through” mechanism. It’s much like a fuse blowing if you have a short-circuit at home.</p>
<p>When large electricity loads are rapidly and unexpectedly removed from the system, electricity supply and demand are no longer matched. It’s a dangerous situation and means electricity generators can be badly damaged or even destroyed if they don’t disconnect from the network.</p>
<p>It appears that Loy Yang A was the first generator to disconnect. The effect was to reduce supply and help bring the system back into balance, preventing a system-wide outage. </p>
<p>All generators have protection systems that stop them from being damaged in these kinds of events. Loy Yang A tripped up to protect itself from permanent damage and in doing so actually kept the system stable. It did what the system is designed to do.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<img alt="coal fired power station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575379/original/file-20240213-22-ct0rma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The disruption to electricity transmission caused AGL’s Loy Yang A generator to go offline.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What part did renewables and coal play?</h2>
<p>When transmission lines fail, the whole system is affected. This includes all types of generators – wind, solar, gas, hydro and coal. The power outages on Tuesday were unrelated to the proportion of renewables and fossil fuels in the energy mix.</p>
<p>It’s possible that old coal power generators are more sensitive to transmission disruptions than newer technologies. But it’s far too early to say whether this had anything to do with Tuesday’s event.</p>
<p>Battery storage may have helped steady the grid. Batteries have ultra-rapid responses to these kinds of disuptions and can add or subtract power from the grid within milliseconds to keep the grid stable.</p>
<p>And looking ahead, one benefit of renewable energy systems is that they tend to be much more widely “distributed” geographically than coal generators. So when power lines go out, having a more distributed network actually provides more resilience.</p>
<h2>Lessons from South Australia</h2>
<p>In September 2016, wind storms in South Australia also blew over transmission lines. Cascading disconnections by generators meant the entire grid went black in a matter of seconds, causing a <a href="https://www.energyfactsaustralia.org.au/explainers/blackouts-explained/">statewide outage</a>. </p>
<p>It will take months to analyse all the data from the Victorian blackout. But it may well show that the lessons learned from SA blackout saved the Victorian grid.</p>
<p>For example, AEMO was <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemos-defence-of-we-didnt-know-underscores-case-for-change-39205/">reportedly unaware</a> about the exact settings of “fault ride-through” mechanisms on wind farms before the SA blackouts. This has since changed, and may have helped minimise the impacts in Victoria.</p>
<h2>A warmer future</h2>
<p>We know more severe weather events are predicted under climate change. It will manifest in many different ways: strong wind events, heatwaves, bushfires and floods.</p>
<p>All infrastructure, but especially energy infrastructure, is vulnerable under these conditions. It means all of us – researchers, the market operators, and generator operators – must work hard to make energy systems more resilient as we move into an uncertain future.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">What caused South Australia's state-wide blackout?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville receives funding from the RACE for 2030 CRC and the Woodside Monash Energy Partnership.
</span></em></p>The event has prompted questions about the reliability of the state’s electricity grid. But it’s important to note these extreme winds would have seriously disrupted any power system.Roger Dargaville, Director Monash Energy Institute, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224952024-02-07T19:18:08Z2024-02-07T19:18:08ZWholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573691/original/file-20240206-29-7oipkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=138%2C53%2C6989%2C4702&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wholesale power prices are falling steeply in Australia, following two years of surging prices after the Ukraine war triggered an energy crisis. <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/2024-01/Q4%202023%20Wholesale%20markets%20quarterly%20report.pdf">New data</a> shows annualised spot prices for power in Australia’s main grid fell by about 50% in 2023. That brings the cost of wholesale power down towards the levels seen in 2021. </p>
<p>Is that good news for consumers? It will be – but not yet. Energy retailers buy most of their power in advance at set prices, accepting higher average prices for less volatility. That means the cheaper spot prices won’t flow through to you for a while. But they will. </p>
<p>Here’s how the system works. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/surging-energy-prices-are-really-going-to-hurt-what-can-the-government-actually-do-196206">Surging energy prices are really going to hurt. What can the government actually do?</a>
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</em>
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<h2>How is power priced?</h2>
<p>The way we price electricity will be different depending where you live in Australia.</p>
<p>If you live in Tasmania, Western Australia, regional Queensland or in the Northern Territory, there’s no competition. The state or territory government runs the power system, and prices are set by a regulator. </p>
<p>In South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and south-east Queensland, the competitive National Energy Market applies. Here, retailers buy power on the wholesale spot market from generators and compete for your business by offering different prices and bundling electricity with other services such as gas or broadband. (Some energy companies are both generators and retailers.) </p>
<p>While the federal government doesn’t set prices in the market, it does have some involvement. In 2019, it introduced a mandatory <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/industry/registers/resources/reviews/default-market-offer-prices-2024-25">default market offer</a>, effectively setting a maximum price a retailer can charge customers. Victoria also implemented its own default offer. These changes stemmed from concerns retail competition was overly complicated and not delivering benefits to all electricity consumers. </p>
<p>Default offers were intended as a fair price for power and to work as a safety net so consumers weren’t overcharged. </p>
<p>Retailers compete in part by offering deals set below the default price. Nearly all of us have now signed up for market offers, leaving fewer than 10% of consumers still on a default offer. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="power lines and house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Wholesale prices have fallen – but there’s a wait for consumer relief.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The price of electricity in default offers is set by energy regulators, usually on 1 July each year. Competing retailers tend to mirror changes to the default offers in their market offers. That means most, if not all, consumers should start seeing lower default prices reflected in their bills from this date onwards.</p>
<p>But don’t expect falling wholesale prices to be passed on immediately or in full. Buying electricity wholesale is only around 40% of a retailer’s total cost. Retailers also pass through the costs of transmission and distribution. </p>
<h2>Ironing out fluctuations</h2>
<p>In the National Energy Market, the spot price of power <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem">changes every five minutes</a> – often drastically. Prices can be as low as negative A$1,000 per megawatt hour or as high as +$16,000 a megawatt hour if there are outages or intense demand during a heatwave. (Prices can turn negative if there’s an oversupply of power, such as when millions of rooftop solar arrays are putting energy into the grid in the middle of the day, and act as an incentive to boost demand or cut supply.) </p>
<p>You and I don’t want to be exposed to such price volatility. We rely on our retailers to do it, and they do so by taking out multi-year contracts to smooth out the price of power. </p>
<p>That means we are not exposed immediately to sudden increases in price, but it also means we do not benefit from rapid falls. Retail prices, including default offers, will respond to changes in wholesale prices when those changes are reflected in the retailers’ contract prices.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar on rooftops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On sunny days, rooftop solar can send power prices negative.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What about politics?</h2>
<p>Power prices are political. Everyone uses electricity and bill shock hurts. </p>
<p>At present, the Albanese government is under real pressure over the cost of living. Successive interest rate rises and more expensive petrol and groceries have left many of us feeling poorer. </p>
<p>Could there be direct intervention? Unlikely. Since the National Electricity Market was introduced in 1998, governments have avoided directly regulating prices. </p>
<p>When partial interventions are tried, they tend to have little impact. When the Coalition was in office federally, they introduced the so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-morrisons-big-stick-to-cut-power-bills-achieved-nothing-as-far-we-can-tell-180683">Big Stick laws</a>, aimed at forcing energy retailers to pass on cost savings. To date, the laws have gathered dust. </p>
<p>What we can expect to see are calls to action. For instance, South Australia’s energy minister recently called on retailers to <a href="https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releases/news-items/consumers-deserve-a-power-break-from-retailers">pass on price falls</a> as quickly as possible. </p>
<p>This makes headlines and can put pressure on regulators such as the Australian Energy Regulator. We can expect the pressure of the election cycle to lead to even more calls for regulators to act. </p>
<p>But regulators should respond in line with their clear guidelines, rather than in response to political pressure. After all, governments have given regulators a difficult job to do: deliver fair prices in a rapidly evolving electricity market.</p>
<p>It would be better for the long-term interests of consumers and energy suppliers if they were allowed to get on with it. </p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>As more clean energy comes into the grid, it should push wholesale prices still lower. But the energy transition isn’t as simple as substituting solar and wind for coal. Big investments in transmission and energy storage are needed to connect more renewables and maintain a reliable system. Prices could once again rise sharply if our ageing coal plants give up the ghost before there’s enough renewable generation and storage to take up the slack. </p>
<p>These challenges and risks were inevitable given the scale of our net-zero transition. But the recent trend towards lower prices should give us confidence that more investment in renewables and storage can cover the closure of coal to deliver a reliable, low-emissions future – without threatening affordability. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have interests in companies impacted by the energy transition through his superannuation fund. </span></em></p>Power prices surged two years ago – and now are falling sharply. Why does it take so long to see relief?Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212822024-02-06T15:51:10Z2024-02-06T15:51:10ZFuel poverty: as government support dries up, communities are taking action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573777/original/file-20240206-22-xvyur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4928%2C3260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cooperative in southern England installed solar panels on flats and used the revenue to fund energy-efficient improvements.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/roof-mounted-solar-panels-manchester-england-394391113">Marcin Wos/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/about-us1/media/press-releases/more-than-two-million-people-will-be-cut-off-from-their-gas-and-electricity-this-winter-because-they-cant-afford-to-top-up-citizens-advice-warns/">More than two million people</a> will be cut off from their gas and electricity this winter because they can’t afford to top up their prepayment meter. That’s according to a report from the charity Citizens Advice, which says it is helping more people than ever who cannot pay for energy.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/whoismostlikelytoliveinhomesthatarehardertokeepwarm/2023-12-14">Data</a> from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests that lone parents (75%), renters (60%), disabled adults (54%), and Black, African, Caribbean, or Black British adults (58%) are more likely to report difficulties in affording their energy payments compared to the national average of 43%.</p>
<p>Underlying all the vulnerable groups who will struggle to keep warm this winter is class. Apart from people aged 65 years and over (who are also more likely to live in homes with lower energy efficiency and so consume more gas and electricity as a result) those most affected by <a href="https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2024-01-16c.676.5">fuel poverty</a> are people who live payday to payday and have very little savings, if any. Race sometimes becomes a factor as government <a href="https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/work-pay-and-benefits/pay-and-income/household-income/latest/">figures</a> show that Black households (54%) are most likely out of all ethnic groups to have a weekly income of less than £600 (US$760).</p>
<p>Soaring heating expenses, stagnating or declining wages and poorly maintained housing have marred millions of lives with debt and poor health. <a href="https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/about-fuel-poverty/excess-winter-deaths-and-fuel-poverty/">Estimates</a> suggest that 10% of excess winter deaths are directly attributable to fuel poverty and 21.5% to cold homes.</p>
<p>So what support is available – and what is actually needed?</p>
<h2>National schemes don’t go far enough</h2>
<p>The government energy bill support <a href="https://www.gov.uk/get-help-energy-bills/getting-discount-energy-bill">scheme</a> gave every household a £400 discount on their energy bills for winter 2022-2023. This ended in March 2023. Now some households could get £150 off their electricity bill (or added to their prepayment meter) for winter 2023-2024 under the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme">warm home discount scheme</a>.</p>
<p>This discount should be automatically applied to your bill, meaning there is no need to apply for the scheme if you are getting the guarantee credit element of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/guarantee-pension-credit">pension credit</a> or are on a low income and live in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/low-income-England-Wales">England and Wales</a>. You may need to apply for it if you are eligible and live in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/low-income-scotland">Scotland</a>, however.</p>
<p>The Citizens Advice <a href="https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/consumer/energy/energy-supply/get-help-paying-your-bills/grants-and-benefits-to-help-you-pay-your-energy-bills/">website</a> has useful information on grants and benefits to help with paying energy bills in England. Your local council may have other schemes so it is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/find-local-council">worth checking</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A paper electricity bill." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573780/original/file-20240206-22-ne8gjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573780/original/file-20240206-22-ne8gjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573780/original/file-20240206-22-ne8gjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573780/original/file-20240206-22-ne8gjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573780/original/file-20240206-22-ne8gjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573780/original/file-20240206-22-ne8gjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573780/original/file-20240206-22-ne8gjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">UK energy bills have remained high for the last two years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paper-electricity-bill-cost-increasing-notice-2132985595">Jevanto Productions/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-69625-6_124-1">Research</a> I conducted with others has shown that what support is available is inadequate. People may be unaware of their eligibility for the warm home discount and struggle to contact their energy supplier, as is sometimes required in Scotland. They may also be loath to contact their local authority for information on nearby “warm spaces” – public places that anyone can use to stay warm, like libraries.</p>
<p>Eligibility itself poses a problem because people in need often miss out due to narrowly defined criteria that excludes people on marginally higher incomes or who are self-employed. Inaccurate government data and flawed disability assessments are also an issue.</p>
<h2>Warm communities</h2>
<p>Fuel poverty is a devolved policy area in the UK, meaning that powers and funding rest with local government. But our <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-319-69625-6_124-1">research</a> shows that people in poverty and ethnic minority groups often do not trust city councils and local political representatives.</p>
<p>Fortunately, others are taking action. <a href="https://communityenergyengland.org/pages/what-is-community-energy">Community Energy England</a>, a not-for-profit company, <a href="https://communityenergyengland.org/pages/who-we-are">provides</a> <a href="https://communityenergyengland.org/how-to-pages/data-digital">free</a> <a href="https://communityenergyengland.org/how-to-pages/community-energy-fortnight-2023-resources">resources</a> for people who want to start <a href="https://communityenergyengland.org/how-to-pages/getting-started-with-community-energy">community energy projects</a>. One <a href="https://communityenergyengland.org/how-to-pages/case-studies">example</a>, <a href="https://www.brightonenergy.org.uk/">Brighton Energy Co-op</a>, has invested in the <a href="https://www.brightonenergy.org.uk/home/our-projects/">installation of solar panels</a> on <a href="https://www.brightonenergy.org.uk/home/our-projects/">buildings</a>, ranging from schools to blocks of flats and even a football stadium. Money raised from selling this electricity has helped repay investors and funded insulation and other energy efficiency improvements for vulnerable people. </p>
<p>Energy efficiency experts <a href="https://www.groundwork.org.uk/greendoctor/">Groundwork’s Green Doctors</a> also give vulnerable <a href="https://www.groundwork.org.uk/greendoctor/our-partners/">people</a> (remotely and in person) useful tips on how to <a href="https://www.groundwork.org.uk/london/saving-resources/">save energy</a> and where to find discounts. Their <a href="https://www.groundwork.org.uk/london/green-doctors-help-residents/">advice</a> includes demonstrating how to put reflective panels behind radiators so that more heat is kept within rooms instead of being lost through walls.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fuelbankfoundation.org/">Fuel Bank Foundation</a> provides emergency credits for people whose prepayment meters run out. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1749827902818959515"}"></div></p>
<p>All of this work is helpful because <a href="https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2023/12/homes-hit-hardest-by-fuel-poverty-not-benefiting-from-government-scheme.page">research</a> shows that households in the areas hardest hit by fuel poverty are not benefiting the most from government programmes.</p>
<h2>More help is needed</h2>
<p>People should not be dying as a result of <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/news/fuel-poverty-charity-reveals-45-people-per-day-die-from-cold-homes/">cold homes</a> in a country as wealthy as <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true">the UK</a> and given the statistics, the government ought to implement a programme of targeted benefits for elderly people with disabilities, addressing the extra costs related to disability and care needs. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352126874_Ethnic_Poverty_Causes_Implications_and_Solutions">research</a> also indicates that higher unemployment rates, low wages, and limited career progression in low-paid sectors frequently ends in fuel poverty, particularly among people in lower socioeconomic classes and especially those from Black communities.</p>
<p>Tackling fuel poverty requires <a href="https://energyforall.org.uk/">diverse</a>, long-term solutions. The support currently offered should expand to involve community-led approaches to improve energy efficiency and help those in dire need.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tolu Olarewaju does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Energy bill discounts have failed to meet the scale of the problem, research shows.Tolu Olarewaju, Economist and Lecturer in Management, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201462023-12-22T15:47:33Z2023-12-22T15:47:33ZUK ban on boilers in new homes rules out hydrogen as a heating source<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567110/original/file-20231221-23-d9yco4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7304%2C4902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/professional-engineer-doing-boiler-inspection-home-2159556831">Stock-Asso/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Boilers will be banned in new-build homes in the UK from 2025, according to a long-awaited government consultation on energy efficiency standards in the housebuilding industry. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/the-future-homes-and-buildings-standards-2023-consultation/the-future-homes-and-buildings-standards-2023-consultation#performance-requirements-for-new-buildings">report</a> said that there is “no practical way” that installing boilers of any type will “deliver significant carbon savings and ‘zero-carbon ready’ homes”. </p>
<p>What’s more surprising is that hydrogen has also been ruled out as a potential heating source. Previously, hydrogen had been touted by both the government and the energy industry as a logical replacement for the natural gas (a fossil fuel and contributor to climate change) that is pumped through the national grid and burned in boilers throughout the UK.</p>
<p>Provided it is made without emitting carbon, typically by using renewable electricity to separate water molecules, hydrogen is a “clean” fuel. But the vast majority of the hydrogen used worldwide is produced <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/low-emission-fuels/hydrogen">using fossil fuels</a>, making it a dubious green alternative. </p>
<p>A report in March 2023 by <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1144529/hydrogen-champion-report.pdf">a UK government advisor</a> recommended blending up to 20% hydrogen into the gas grid. Some of the biggest boiler manufacturers <a href="https://www.boilerguide.co.uk/gas-boiler/hydrogen-ready/manufacturers#:%7E:text=Hydrogen%20boiler%20manufacturers%20Worcester%20Bosch,gas%20network%20would%20be%202026">called for</a> “all boilers to be hydrogen-compatible as of 2025”. And, as recently as December 2022, the government considered making all gas boilers sold to homes from 2026 capable of one day <a href="https://www.hvnplus.co.uk/news/government-proposes-mandatory-sale-of-hydrogen-ready-boilers-from-2026-14-12-2022/">burning hydrogen instead</a>. </p>
<p>Three towns, <a href="https://www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/uks-first-hydrogen-village-project-24929882">Whitby in Cheshire</a>, <a href="https://www.redcarhydrogencommunity.co.uk/">Redcar in North Yorkshire</a> and <a href="https://www.fife.gov.uk/kb/docs/articles/environment2/climate-change,-carbon-and-energy/h100-fife-hydrogen-heating-network">Levenmouth in Fife</a>, were even chosen to host trials where several homes would be heated with hydrogen.</p>
<p>Outside of the bubble inflated by the government and industry figures, few thought that using hydrogen for home heating was a good idea. Hydrogen won’t solve either of the two biggest energy challenges: cost and carbon emissions. The process of making hydrogen is significantly more expensive than pumping natural gas and there simply is not enough “clean” hydrogen available.</p>
<p>A 2022 report by Dr Jan Rosenow from the University of Oxford reviewed 32 international studies on the use of hydrogen for heating and concluded that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363913282_Is_heating_homes_with_hydrogen_all_but_a_pipe_dream_An_evidence_review">its widespread use was not justifiable</a>. “Hydrogen use for domestic heating is less economic, less efficient, more resource intensive, and associated with larger environmental impacts” than alternatives such as heat pumps, it said. </p>
<p>Heat pumps are rapidly becoming the default choice for heating (and cooling) globally. Using the same technology as a refrigerator or air conditioner, heat pumps powered by electricity extract and transfer heat <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-heat-pumps/how-a-heat-pump-works">to where it is needed</a>.</p>
<h2>Did COP28 burst hydrogen’s bubble?</h2>
<p>The timing of the consultation is intriguing. It was originally scheduled to be published <a href="https://www.edie.net/opted-for-the-least-ambitious-option-government-lambasted-over-future-homes-consultation/">in late 2020</a> but was postponed several times. It was finally released on December 13 2023, on the same day that nearly 200 countries agreed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/countries-push-cop28-deal-fossil-fuels-talks-spill-into-overtime-2023-12-12/%23:%7E:text=DUBAI,%2520Dec%252013%2520(Reuters),end%2520of%2520the%2520oil%2520age.">“transition” away from fossil fuels</a> at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai. </p>
<p>A few days prior to this on December 8, a broad range of government, industry and voluntary organisations launched a joint declaration at COP28 on the <a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/cop28-new-declaration-calls-for-green-hydrogen-to-be-prioritised-for-fossil-fuel-replacement-not-heating-or-power/2-1-1567713">Responsible Deployment of Renewables-Based Hydrogen</a>. </p>
<p>The declaration includes a pledge to prioritise clean hydrogen for “displacing the current use of fossil-based hydrogen” where a lot is already needed, or for “hard-to-abate sectors” such as heavy industry where a lot more will be needed. It went on to state that its use for heating would be “potentially cannibalising renewable electricity”. This is because you end up with only <a href="https://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2021/6/11/some-rules-of-thumb-of-the-hydrogen-economy#:%7E:text=A%20survey%20of%20the%20major,kWh%2C%20or%2067%25%20efficiency.">two-thirds of the energy in the hydrogen</a> that you started with from the electricity.</p>
<p>As for the three trial projects, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/hydrogen-may-never-heat-british-homes-after-redcar-trial-cancelled-13030237">two have already been cancelled</a> due to protests and a lack of uptake by residents. It is hard to see how the one remaining in Fife could sensibly proceed – especially as the Scottish government signed the Responsible Hydrogen declaration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Port Talbot Steelworks at sunset." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Port Talbot Steelworks in south Wales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tata-steel-plant-port-talbot-south-402633844">Chris Goddard/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the future holds</h2>
<p>This is just a consultation. In other words, a government policy document submitted for <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/consultation-paper/">public feedback</a>. There is no guarantee that the ban on hydrogen boilers will be implemented by parliament. It is probable that energy industry groups will lobby for changes through the consultation process, and ultimately it will be the politicians who decide.</p>
<p>But the direction of travel has been set. This is “<a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">the beginning of the end</a>” of the fossil fuel era according to the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in his closing speech at COP28. </p>
<p>Germany’s climate envoy Jennifer Morgan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/15/fossil-fuels-how-a-huge-gamble-sealed-cop28-deal">said</a>: “Now the signals are clear. If you’re an investor, the future is renewable. Fossil fuels are stranded assets.” Clean hydrogen will be a part of that transition but only where no viable alternatives exist.</p>
<p>Regardless of whether the recommendations of the Future Homes consultation become law, we can safely say a few things:</p>
<ul>
<li>Hydrogen will not be used for home heating in any meaningful way. Even if the government ignores the consultation, there is neither scientific nor public support for its use and it will not reduce energy costs.</li>
<li>Assume that all new-build homes will be fitted with heat pumps starting within the next few years. The reality is they are cost-effective to install and operate, especially as insulation levels are increased such that the need for space heating becomes minimal.</li>
<li>The only real alternative to heat pumps, especially for apartments, are district heat networks where hot water gets pumped around a whole neighbourhood from a central source. These are commonplace in many cold countries, so we should expect to see a lot more of them in the UK.</li>
</ul>
<p>The other certainty is that home boilers will very soon move into the realm of nostalgia.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ran Boydell receives funding from the UK and Scottish governments for research projects on the built environment. He is affiliated with the Scottish Ecological Design Association (SEDA).</span></em></p>Hydrogen will not be used to heat UK homes in the future in any meaningful way.Ran Boydell, Associate Professor in Sustainable Development, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168062023-12-05T13:17:38Z2023-12-05T13:17:38ZScientists have been researching superconductors for over a century, but they have yet to find one that works at room temperature − 3 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560888/original/file-20231121-15-k3mvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C8%2C1417%2C2095&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The search for the room-temperature superconductor continues. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/superconductivity-royalty-free-image/521405206?phrase=superconductor&adppopup=true">Charles O'Rear/Corbis Documentary via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you hadn’t heard about superconductors before 2023, odds are you know what they are now. Researchers raised eyebrows early in the year with <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/short-spectacular-life-viral-room-temperature-superconductivity-claim">claims of operational room-temperature superconductors</a>, though none has been substantiated, and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0">one paper</a> from researchers at the University of Rochester was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06774-2">retracted by the journal Nature</a> at the authors’ request in November. </p>
<p>But the hunt <a href="https://www.energy.gov/science/doe-explainssuperconductivity">for a superconductor</a> – that is, a material that can conduct electricity without resistance – that can operate at room temperature is nothing new. </p>
<p>Right now, superconductors can operate only at very cold temperatures. So, finding one that could work at room temperature without needing to be kept in a cold chamber could revolutionize everything <a href="https://theconversation.com/physicists-hunt-for-room-temperature-superconductors-that-could-revolutionize-the-worlds-energy-system-80707">from power grids</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849">medical equipment</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849">quantum computing</a>. But physicists first have to figure out how to make them work. </p>
<p>A Dutch physicist <a href="https://theconversation.com/superconductivity-at-room-temperature-remains-elusive-a-century-after-a-nobel-went-to-the-scientist-who-demonstrated-it-below-450-degrees-fahrenheit-213959">discovered the phenomenon of superconductivity</a> in the early 20th century, and since then, labs around the world have tested materials that can reach a superconductive state at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevB.50.4260">warmer and warmer temperatures</a>. </p>
<p>So, how do these materials manage to conduct electricity without resistance, and what sorts of technological possibilities lie on the horizon, with superconductor research improving every year? Here are three stories from The Conversation’s archive that explore the history, science and future of this incredible physical phenomenon. </p>
<h2>1. Physics behind the phenomenon</h2>
<p>How is it even possible to generate a current with zero electrical resistance, the basis for superconductivity? In order to do so, you must <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRev.108.1175">keep your conducting metal cold</a>. Really cold. Like, hundreds of degrees below zero. </p>
<p>“At normal temperatures, electrons move in somewhat erratic paths. They can generally succeed in moving through a wire freely, but every once in a while they collide with the nuclei of the material,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-superconductors-work-a-physicist-explains-what-it-means-to-have-resistance-free-electricity-202308">wrote Mishkat Bhattacharya</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5gCcMuMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">a physicist at</a> Rochester Institute of Technology. “These collisions are what obstruct the flow of electrons, cause resistance and heat up the material.”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sJLSL61sLZ0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Superconductive materials repel magnetic fields, making it possible to levitate a magnet above a superconductor.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Normally, the nuclei of all atoms vibrate constantly, and they can bump into each other. In superconducting materials, the electrons in the current pass from atom to atom while vibrating at the same frequency as the nuclei of the atoms in the superconducting metal. This means that instead of colliding and generating heat, they’re moving in a <a href="https://www.energy.gov/science/bes/articles/electrons-line-dance-superconductor">smooth and coordinated way</a>. And it’s the cold temperatures that allow for this coordinated movement. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-superconductors-work-a-physicist-explains-what-it-means-to-have-resistance-free-electricity-202308">How do superconductors work? A physicist explains what it means to have resistance-free electricity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. A century of superconductivity</h2>
<p>Mercury was the first material <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3490499">discovered as a superconducter</a>, by <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1913/onnes/facts/">Heike Kamerlingh Onnes</a> in 1911. His team had to cool liquid helium to -454 degrees Fahrenheit (-270 degrees Celsius) to observe the effect. They used wires made of mercury to send a current through the material, and then measured the effect of electrical resistance as “near enough null.” </p>
<p>Onnes and his team repeated the experiment several times to make sure the effect they’d observed was, in fact, superconductivity, and they also troubleshot all other possible explanations for the effect – electrical faults, open currents and so on. But they kept finding the same result, and after three years of testing, Onnes was able to demonstrate currents with truly zero resistance. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph with the resistence of Mercury on the y axis and temperature on the x axis, showing a sharp drop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The resistance of mercury as recorded on Oct. 26, 1911, by Heike Kamerlingh Onnes’ lab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Superconductivity_1911.png">Heike Kamerlingh Onnes via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Superconductivity has always been tricky to prove because some metals can masquerade as superconductors,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/superconductivity-at-room-temperature-remains-elusive-a-century-after-a-nobel-went-to-the-scientist-who-demonstrated-it-below-450-degrees-fahrenheit-213959">wrote David D. Nolte</a>, <a href="https://galileo-unbound.blog/books-by-d-d-nolte/">an author of history of science books and a physicist at Purdue</a>. “The lessons learned by Onnes a century ago – that these discoveries require time, patience and, most importantly, proof of currents that never stop – are still relevant today.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/superconductivity-at-room-temperature-remains-elusive-a-century-after-a-nobel-went-to-the-scientist-who-demonstrated-it-below-450-degrees-fahrenheit-213959">Superconductivity at room temperature remains elusive a century after a Nobel went to the scientist who demonstrated it below -450 degrees Fahrenheit</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>3. A superconductive future</h2>
<p>One of the most important applications of a future room-temperature superconductor would be decreasing the heat wasted from electronics. Not only could electronics like cellphones and computers run much <a href="https://theconversation.com/physicists-hunt-for-room-temperature-superconductors-that-could-revolutionize-the-worlds-energy-system-80707">more quickly and efficiently</a>, but on a larger scale, electric grids, power lines and data centers could decrease <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=105&t=3">their wasted heat</a>. This could be a huge win for the environment. </p>
<p>“If we succeed in making a room-temperature superconductor, then we can address the billions of dollars that it costs in wasted heat to transmit energy from power plants to cities,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/physicists-hunt-for-room-temperature-superconductors-that-could-revolutionize-the-worlds-energy-system-80707">wrote Pegor Aynajian</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=B_5QhO4AAAAJ&hl=en">a physicist at</a> Binghamton University, State University of New York. “Solar energy harvested in the vast empty deserts around the world could be stored and transmitted without any loss of energy, which could power cities and dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”</p>
<p>A type of superconductor made from a ceramiclike material <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1987/summary/">discovered by scientists</a> at <a href="https://www.zurich.ibm.com/">IBM in Switzerland</a> could be one path to a room-temperature superconductor. Already, this class of materials has been shown to <a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/high-temperature-superconductivity-understood-at-last-20220921/">work at higher – though still frigid – temperatures</a>, closer to -300 F (-184 C) than conventional superconductors like Onnes’ original mercury wires. </p>
<p>But while a room-temperature superconductor could revolutionize electronics and energy transmission, the right material still remains elusive. As Aynajian puts it, a room-temperature superconductor is quite literally “the next million-dollar question.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/physicists-hunt-for-room-temperature-superconductors-that-could-revolutionize-the-worlds-energy-system-80707">Physicists hunt for room-temperature superconductors that could revolutionize the world's energy system</a>
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<p><em>This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Claims about the discovery of a coveted room-temperature superconductor peppered the news in 2023. We pulled three stories from our archives on what superconductivity is and why scientists study it.Mary Magnuson, Assistant Science EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184272023-11-23T08:13:24Z2023-11-23T08:13:24ZThe government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here’s why that’s a good idea<p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/delivering-more-reliable-energy-all-australians">today announced</a> a scheme to underwrite the risk of investing in new renewable energy generation and storage. </p>
<p>The expansion of the national <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a> follows <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-capacity-investment-scheme-supports-nsw-deliver-1gw-cleaner-cheaper-more-reliable-energy-nsw">a successful pilot study with New South Wales</a>. The government paid A$1.8 billion for just over a gigawatt of capacity, through a combination of batteries and other storage. </p>
<p>Bowen says the scheme “underwrites new renewable generation and storage, providing certainty for renewable investors and cheaper, cleaner energy for households and businesses”. And if all goes well, the scheme will provide a financial return to taxpayers. </p>
<p>Most of the country still relies on dirty coal-fired power. Several power stations have <a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-liddell-what-to-expect-when-australias-oldest-coal-plant-closes-203548">already closed</a> and many more have flagged intentions to close. The ageing fleet is also unreliable, causing power outages. Before coal exits the system, we need to replace it. This scheme will ensure that happens well in advance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>What’s the problem?</h2>
<p>The government was not on track to achieve 82% renewables by 2030. It was clearly under pressure to do something about that. And now it has. </p>
<p>If what’s been announced today actually is built, then it’s likely we will be able to hit the target. The amount of new capacity being considered will certainly make a huge difference. So that’s 23 gigawatts of new variable renewables such as wind and solar, plus 9GW of “dispatchable” capacity, which involves storage – mainly batteries.</p>
<p>If the scheme does its job, it’s also likely to accelerate the closure of coal-fired power stations. </p>
<p>That will help us to reduce emissions but it also raises the risk of blackouts from grid instability. That’s a worry as we head into a long, hot summer. </p>
<p>We need to close the gap between closure of coal-fired power and new generators coming online to firm up the system. </p>
<p>Today’s announcement takes us to a total of 32GW nationally. Compare that to the total generation capacity of the National Electricity Market <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/national-electricity-market-fact-sheet.pdf">at about 65GW</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>How does the Capacity Investment Scheme help?</h2>
<p>Under the original scheme, the federal government has begun to run competitive tenders seeking bids for clean renewable generation projects.</p>
<p>Under the expanded scheme, successful projects will be offered contracts in which a revenue floor and ceiling are agreed with the Commonwealth.</p>
<p>This scheme will be rolled out with regular six-monthly tenders from the second quarter of the 2024–25 financial year through to 2027.</p>
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<span class="caption">If revenue earned by a project exceeds the net revenue ceiling, the owner pays the Commonwealth an agreed percentage of revenue above revenue ceiling. The Commonwealth would pay the project when revenue is below the revenue floor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span></span>
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<p>In principle, it’s a good idea for two reasons. First, it provides a much greater level of certainty for investors. Difficulty getting people to invest in the renewable energy sector is one of the reasons why we’re not on track. In this case the government will be paying directly, holding auctions to guarantee a certain revenue for those who invest in these projects. In other policy instruments it’s really the consumer who ends up paying. </p>
<p>The way it’s done, through “contract the difference”, is pretty sensible, in that the government is only underwriting the risk, rather than the full amount of money. If the revenue the project actually generates in the market is within the agreed range, the government doesn’t pay anything. </p>
<p>But if the people who invested are not getting the agreed amount of financial return, the government will pay the difference. Or most of the difference anyway, through a formula yet to be worked out – but the government will certainly be contributing towards that difference. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it’s not a one-sided arrangement. If the project generates more revenue than the agreed ceiling, that money goes back to the government. So the government’s not signing up to an open chequebook. </p>
<p>Second, this approach puts all the responsibility for reliability of the grid in the hands of the states. That is, dealing with the closure of the coal plants and making sure there’s enough capacity to replace it.</p>
<p>That’s probably a good idea, because some of the states have different views about how reliability should be addressed. Some would not want to see any gas-fired generation being used to back up renewables; others may be happy to have gas-fired power or even a hydrogen power station to back up reliability. It will be up to them now. </p>
<p>Alongside these steps federal and state governments still need to step up the pressure on building transmission lines to connect all of this new renewable capacity to the grid. However, today’s announcement does nothing to address how this will be done. </p>
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<h2>What will this do to power prices?</h2>
<p>I don’t expect it to make much difference to prices. While new renewables themselves are cheap, the transmission and storage needed to back them up will not be. So they’ll probably largely balance each other out. </p>
<p>The bottom line is we will be getting a more reliable and lower-emissions electricity sector at a relatively low carbon cost. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218427/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have a financial interest in companies relevant to the article through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>The Australian Labor government’s expanded Capacity Investment Scheme gives us a better chance of hitting high renewable energy targets. It’s not without risk but well worth the rewards.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172322023-11-09T22:35:27Z2023-11-09T22:35:27ZMaine voters don’t like their electric utilities, but they balked at paying billions to buy them out<p>Frustration with electric utilities is universal today. Whether it’s concerns over <a href="https://www.maine.gov/mpuc/regulated-utilities/electricity/delivery-rates">high rates</a>, <a href="https://www.ktvu.com/news/aging-infrastructure-missing-data-and-backlog-of-repairs-continue-to-plague-pge-new-state-report-shows">poor service</a> or a combination of both, people are constantly looking for a better answer to the systems that serve them.</p>
<p>In the Nov. 7, 2023, election, voters in Maine had a chance to consider a new model for electricity service that would replace the state’s <a href="https://mainebeacon.com/cmp-versant-once-again-ranked-last-in-residential-customer-satisfaction-survey/">two widely unpopular private utilities</a>, but they balked in the face of multibillion-dollar cost projections. </p>
<p>This decision took the form of <a href="https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/ballotquestionsnov2023.html">two ballot questions</a>. Question 3 asked whether voters wanted to create a new publicly owned power company, dubbed Pine Tree Power, to take over the existing assets of Maine’s two privately owned utilities. The related Question 1 asked whether consumer-owned electric utilities should have to get public approval before taking on more than US$1 billion in debt. Voters <a href="https://wgme.com/news/local/2023-election-results-for-maine">adopted Question 1 and soundly defeated Question 3</a>.</p>
<p>Municipal ownership of utilities is not new: Across the U.S., <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/public-power/stats-and-facts">about 2,000 communities have public power utilities</a>. In Nebraska, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=NE">all electricity providers are publicly owned</a>.</p>
<p>But private utilities <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/pge-us-sanfrancisco-assets/pge-turns-down-san-franciscos-2-5-bln-offer-to-buy-assets-idUKL3N26W40A">often fight against public takeover attempts</a> – and Maine was no exception. The parent companies of Central Maine Power and Versant Power <a href="https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/11/07/politics/maine-voters-reject-utility-takeover-after-heavy-spending-from-cmp-and-versant/">spent nearly $40 million</a> campaigning against the ballot measures, compared with $1.2 million on the pro-public power side.</p>
<p>At the University of Florida’s <a href="https://warrington.ufl.edu/public-utility-research-center/">Public Utility Research Center</a>, I work with utilities and regulators around the world to assess different ways of structuring power companies. Questions about what kinds of utilities best serve the public have <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-battle-over-control-of-pgande-means-for-us-utility-customers-126992">intensified</a> in recent years. As the Maine vote shows, people want different and sometimes competing things from their utility systems.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Maine utilities have struggled to modernize their networks and cope with increasing outages caused by climate-driven storms.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Three basic structures</h2>
<p>There are three basic ownership models for electric utilities. Investor-owned utilities, or IOUs, are owned by private shareholders, who might live next door or halfway around the world. Their stock is publicly traded, and their CEOs have a fiscal responsibility to shareholders as well as to serve their customers.</p>
<p>Municipally owned utilities, often known as munis, are owned locally, generally by the government of the city they serve. Some municipal utilities also serve customers in surrounding areas.</p>
<p>Cooperative utilities are owned entirely by their customers, much like housing or food co-ops. Initially, cooperatives tended to be located in more rural zones. Some of these areas, such as <a href="https://www.lcec.net/">southwest Florida</a>, have grown so rapidly that the term “rural cooperative” no longer applies. </p>
<p>Both munis and cooperatives operate as nonprofits. There is no consistent nationwide link between rates and ownership structure, but it is notable that five of the nine municipal and cooperative utilities in <a href="https://www.maine.gov/mpuc/regulated-utilities/electricity/delivery-rates">Maine</a> charge less then 15 cents per kilowatt-hour for residential customers, compared with 27 to 30 cents for Central Maine Power and Versant. This may have influenced voters’ perception that a municipal utility could provide power at lower prices. </p>
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<p>Municipal utilities do return a portion of their revenues to their investors, but a muni’s investor is the city it serves. According to the American Public Power Association, in 2020, public power utilities <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/2023-Public-Power-Statistical-Report.pdf">returned a median of 6.1% of their revenues</a> to the communities they served. This return allows local governments to keep taxes lower than would otherwise be necessary to provide government services.</p>
<p>These utilities are also regulated in different ways. Investor-owned utilities are regulated by state <a href="https://www.naruc.org/">public utility commissions</a>, which oversee everything from what kinds of facilities to build and where to build them to how to reflect those costs in electricity rates. </p>
<p>Municipally owned and cooperative utilities are typically regulated on a limited basis by state public utility commissions – usually on matters of safety, reliability or the utilities’ impacts on the rest of the grid. Responsibility for municipal utility rates lies with either the city council or an independent local utility board. Cooperative utilities typically set their rates through a board elected by their customers.</p>
<h2>Maine’s approach</h2>
<p>The structure proposed in Maine was a fascinating hybrid case. Pine Tree Power’s ownership would have closely mirrored that of a municipal utility, governed by a board, but its rates would have been regulated by the Maine Public Utilities Commission. It is unclear what the board’s responsibilities would have been.</p>
<p>Further, since the public utility commission would have been required to set rates according to the actual costs of providing service, it is unclear whether Pine Tree Power would have been allowed to charge rates sufficient to return revenue to the state, similar to what most municipal utilities do. </p>
<p>There was intense debate about Pine Tree Power’s potential benefits. <a href="https://pinetreepower.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/review-and-assessment-of-lei-model-2020-1.pdf">One study</a> showed that shifting from private to public power would produce significant benefits, while <a href="https://maineaffordableenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Whitepaper-Analysis-of-Government-Controlled-Power-in-Maine.pdf">another</a> showed significant costs. A <a href="https://legislature.maine.gov/doc/4350">third study</a> forecast long-term benefits but short-term costs, primarily from buying out the state’s two private utilities. </p>
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<span class="caption">Rural electrification was a central element of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. The 1936 Rural Electrification Act authorized low-interest federal loans to local cooperatives that would build and maintain power plants and lines and charge reasonable fees for membership.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.okhistory.org/publications/enc/entry.php?entry=RU007">Encyclopedia of Oklahoma History and Culture</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>In a municipalization, the cost to buy out the private utility strongly influences how much net benefit will result – and it’s not as simple as writing a check for the book value of the assets. Typically, price determination is a quasi-judicial process overseen by an arbitrator. </p>
<p>For example, when Winter Park, Florida, took control of the local assets of its power provider in 2005, the city estimated the value of the physical assets at $15.8 million. The eventual purchase price determined by an arbitrator was <a href="https://doee.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/ddoe/publication/attachments/An%20Analysis%20of%20Municipalization%20and%20Related%20Utility%20Practices.pdf">just over $42 million</a>. The city also incurred legal and technical support costs. Winter Park issued almost $49 million in bonds to cover all of the costs of the acquisition.</p>
<h2>Maine’s cost safeguard</h2>
<p>One curious element of the Maine vote that could have future impacts is the voter approval process under Question 1, which was adopted. Typically, when a community municipalizes its electric power, voters would consider an initial referendum authorizing the government to explore the possibility of purchasing the private utility’s assets, and then a second referendum when the costs of the purchase were known. </p>
<p>The second vote would be more specific – something like, “Should the City issue bonds in the amount of $200 million to finalize the purchase of the assets of XYZ Corp. for the express purpose of establishing a municipal utility?”</p>
<p>This approach is expensive to administer, since it requires two votes, and a defeat at either stage can stop the acquisition process. But it also safeguards voters, since it ensures that they have information about how much municipalizing their utility will cost before they vote to approve it.</p>
<p>Cost estimates for buying out Maine’s utilities and creating Pine Tree Power <a href="https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2023-10-05/heres-everything-we-know-about-the-referendum-to-replace-cmp-and-versant-with-pine-tree-power">ranged from $5 billion to $13.5 billion</a>, and buyout opponents – including Maine Gov. Janet Mills – <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/maine-votes-takeover-cmp-versant-pine-tree-power/696078/">strongly emphasized the potential price tag</a>. However, the fact that voters approved Question 1 might actually make a future municipalization vote more likely to pass, since voters now know they will have a safeguard of knowing the purchase price prior to their final approval. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/Cw5XjbBMfXq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Ultimately, in my view, there is no best model for utility ownership and operation. One strength of private utilities is that they are subject to clear, consistent oversight by professional utility regulators. For their part, municipal and cooperative utilities offer local control and greater flexibility to address local concerns. However, all types of power companies <a href="https://www.powermag.com/public-power-and-ious-the-same-but-different/">face daunting challenges</a>, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-grid-cybersecurity-will-be-expensive-who-will-pay-and-how-much-114137">grid cybersecurity</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-proposed-tenfold-increase-in-solar-power-would-remake-the-us-electricity-system-167605">clean energy transition</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-jobs-are-booming-but-too-few-employees-have-sustainability-skills-to-fill-them-here-are-4-ways-to-close-the-gap-193953">hiring and retaining skilled workers</a>.</p>
<p>As I see it, a community’s best strategy is to choose a model that has strengths residents value, and whose weaknesses are less important or can be mitigated in other ways. While Maine voters may not love the system they have, their fear of the unknown was apparently stronger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217232/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission. In 2018, he was principal investigator on a grant from the Jessie Ball duPont Fund to study the value of municipal utilities in a changing marketplace. That work informs portions of this piece. However, the Center maintains sole editorial control of this and any other work.</span></em></p>Power companies can be publicly or privately owned and may report to corporate boards, local governments or co-op members. But there’s no one best way to deliver electricity reliably and affordably.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2148082023-11-06T18:10:13Z2023-11-06T18:10:13ZWhy surging sales of large electric vehicles raises environmental red flags<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557707/original/file-20231106-252784-a0wdu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6016%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-cars-suvs-parked-row-on-1380375332">alexfan32/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electric cars are getting bigger and heavier. In 2019, <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/dacf14d2-eabc-498a-8263-9f97fd5dc327/GEVO2023.pdf">30% of the electric vehicle</a> (EV) models available worldwide were sports utility vehicles (SUVs). </p>
<p>Fast forward to 2022 and that figure stood at 40% – equivalent to the share of small and medium car options combined. Other large models accounted for more than 15%.</p>
<p>There’s an issue with this. Larger and heavier EVs require bigger batteries to power them. In fact, the battery of an SUV can be double the size of that in a smaller vehicle. </p>
<p>As with many other batteries, the lithium-ion cells that power the majority of electric vehicles rely on raw materials such as cobalt, lithium and nickel. In a standard 60 kWh lithium-ion battery pack designed for smaller EVs, there can be as much as <a href="https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/the-key-minerals-in-an-ev-battery/">170kg of minerals</a>, including 39kg of nickel and 5kg of lithium. </p>
<p>Batteries for electric SUVs demand that up to <a href="https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/57318397-fdd4-11ed-a05c-01aa75ed71a1">75% more raw materials</a> are extracted from the environment than this.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular#/">research</a> suggests that there could be shortages in the supply of battery materials in the future. By 2030, there could be a 55% less lithium and 8% less nickel and manganese than is needed to meet the demand for EV batteries.</p>
<p>If the demand for electric SUVs continues to increase over the coming decade, this could severely escalate the pressure on the already tight supply of critical raw materials.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Ford Mustang Mach-E All-Electric SUV." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557455/original/file-20231103-26-7cut8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557455/original/file-20231103-26-7cut8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557455/original/file-20231103-26-7cut8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557455/original/file-20231103-26-7cut8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557455/original/file-20231103-26-7cut8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557455/original/file-20231103-26-7cut8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557455/original/file-20231103-26-7cut8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More and more people are opting for larger EVs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/szczecinpolandfebruary-2021-ford-mustang-mache-allelectric-1927403225">Mike Mareen/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>But that’s not all</h2>
<p>The production of batteries is also a highly carbon-intensive process, with emissions increasing as batteries grow in size. For example, the CO₂ emissions resulting from materials processing and battery manufacturing can soar to <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/dacf14d2-eabc-498a-8263-9f97fd5dc327/GEVO2023.pdf">levels 70% higher</a> for electric SUVs compared to smaller EVs.</p>
<p>Mining activities have been linked with several negative environmental effects too. For instance, one <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2021.2388">study</a> found that lithium mining activities in the Salar de Atacama – Chile’s largest salt flat – have <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/flamingo-bird">disturbed flamingo breeding sites</a> and reduced the birds’ access to food and water. </p>
<p>Expanding mining operations to support the growing SUV market could lead to further habitat destruction, excessive water consumption, increased mining waste and heightened risks to local biodiversity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pink flamingos feeding in a lake." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557454/original/file-20231103-22-yc1vd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lithium mining has disturbed flamingos in the Salar de Atacama, Chile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pink-flamingos-salar-de-talar-atacama-1490667356">SierraLemon/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Adding to the complexity is the EU’s <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32023R1542">recent decision</a> to mandate a minimum proportion of recycled material in new EV batteries. As of 2021, regulations have required that 6% of the nickel and lithium, and 14% of the cobalt in EV batteries must be sourced from recycled materials.</p>
<p>Given the sharp upswing in battery demand, coupled with the need for more recycled materials, we could once again encounter a strained supply chain, with particular implications for larger batteries.</p>
<h2>We need clean electricity</h2>
<p>To charge larger batteries in an environmentally friendly manner will require an increased supply of low-carbon electricity. But, as the energy sources used to generate electricity are influenced by factors including availability and the dynamics of the energy market, the <a href="https://carbonintensity.org.uk/">carbon intensity</a> of the electricity supply can often vary. </p>
<p>Even if electricity grids do become cleaner, the increasing demand generated by the need to charge these larger batteries could put pressure on power grids.</p>
<p>Transmission and distribution systems were designed at a time when power plants were large and centralised, and electricity demand was relatively low. However, the energy landscape has evolved. </p>
<p>We are now moving towards decentralised energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels. These energy sources are often smaller and located in areas where electricity generation was previously absent. </p>
<p>As a result, the grid infrastructure in these locations is less developed. Electricity demand is also growing, as more people buy electric vehicles and install heat pumps. </p>
<p>The overall grid capacity might be sufficient to accommodate these changes. But there could still be periods, especially during specific times of the day or year, when the grid experiences bottlenecks. </p>
<p>For example, there may be a surplus of renewable energy generation in one location and significant demand in a distant area, but the electrical infrastructure might be insufficient to transfer power from one end to the other.</p>
<p>This exact situation often occurs in the UK. In 2022, bottlenecks in the transmission system meant Scottish wind farms were <a href="https://carbontracker.org/britain-wastes-enough-wind-generation-to-power-1-million-homes/">paid to stop generating power</a> on 200 separate occasions and gas power stations in England were paid to increase output to compensate for this. </p>
<p>Utilities companies are working to <a href="https://roadnighttaylor.co.uk/connectology/what-is-network-reinforcement/">reinforce electricity grids</a> worldwide by, for example, building more lines to transfer the additional power.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A close-up shot of a wind turbine in a field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557457/original/file-20231103-21-agxdj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557457/original/file-20231103-21-agxdj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557457/original/file-20231103-21-agxdj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557457/original/file-20231103-21-agxdj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557457/original/file-20231103-21-agxdj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557457/original/file-20231103-21-agxdj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557457/original/file-20231103-21-agxdj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The power generation landscape has evolved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-view-wind-turbine-renewable-green-2050094282">CloudVisual/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Motorists are increasingly opting for large electric SUVs. But the environmental impact of these vehicles should not be underestimated. The relentless demand for battery materials and electricity raises the question of whether SUVs will continue to be a viable green option.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More and more motorists are opting for bigger EVs – but there are several environmental concerns to consider.Laura Lander, Lecturer in Engineering, King's College LondonGrazia Todeschini, Reader in Engineering, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168912023-11-02T19:14:00Z2023-11-02T19:14:00ZIs nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?<p>In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”.</p>
<p>Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>?</p>
<p>For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion.</p>
<p>Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2>
<p>There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. </p>
<p>Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades.</p>
<p>By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure.</p>
<p><a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains.</p>
<p>In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices.</p>
<h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high.</p>
<p>But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear.</p>
<p>The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour.</p>
<p>In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear.</p>
<h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2>
<p>Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law.</p>
<p>Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards.</p>
<p>In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete.</p>
<p>Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2>
<p>Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. </p>
<p>A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world.</p>
<p>Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal?">economically insane</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reuben Finighan is a research fellow at the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>When Australia’s government and opposition argue over how to get to net zero emissions, nuclear power is the flashpoint. The argument against nuclear is stronger, but not for the obvious reason.Reuben Finighan, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164282023-10-29T01:51:39Z2023-10-29T01:51:39ZWorried economists call for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and ‘green tariffs’ to get Australia on the path to net zero<p>Australia’s top economists have overwhelmingly backed the reintroduction of the carbon price that helped cut Australia’s emissions between 2012 and 2014.</p>
<p>The government concedes that achieving its legislated emissions reduction target of <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2022A00037">43% below 2005 levels</a> by 2030 and net zero by 2050 will be <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-afr-climate-and-energy-summit">difficult</a>. With official forecasts showing Australia <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022">falling short</a>, the Economic Society of Australia asked 50 leading Australian economists what should be done to speed things up.</p>
<p>Offered a choice that included nuclear energy, accelerated investment in large-scale batteries, and a rapid phase-out of traditionally fuelled vehicles, 30 of the 50 picked a <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Infohub/CPM/Pages/About-the-mechanism.aspx">carbon price</a> of the kind introduced by the Gillard Labor government in 2012 and abolished by the Abbott Coalition government in 2014.</p>
<p>Another five said they supported an economy-wide carbon price, but wouldn’t nominate it in the survey because it would face “significant political hurdles” and would not be “politically feasible”. </p>
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<p>The Department of Climate Change told the government in December it was on track to fall short of its 2030 target of a 43% cut on 2005 levels, but that with “additional measures” it could <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022">get to 40%</a>.</p>
<p>In October this year, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen described the 43% target as “ambitious” and a “<a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-afr-climate-and-energy-summit">difficult task</a>”.</p>
<p>The scheme the economists were asked about was a “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cap-and-trade.asp">cap and trade</a>” scheme, of the type common in <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/a1abead2-de91-5992-bb7a-73d8aaaf767f/full">much of the world</a>. In these schemes, the government sets a cap on the total number of emission permits produced each year and allows users to trade them with one another to set a price.</p>
<h2>A carbon price by another name</h2>
<p>The Gillard government’s scheme was initially a <a href="https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20130418163201/https://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/an-overview-of-the-clean-energy-legislative-package/">fixed charge</a> per tonne of carbon emitted by big polluters. It was set to switch to a cap and trade scheme after three years, but ended up being abolished after two.</p>
<p>In its place, the Abbott government created a “<a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-safeguard-mechanism">safeguard mechanism</a>” that currently applies only to the 219 biggest polluting facilities in Australia. It requires each to keep emissions below a government-set baseline, and allows them to trade emissions reductions with one another.</p>
<p>The economists were asked about expanding the mechanism to make it mimic an economy-wide carbon price. In response, 42% said they wanted to boost the number of facilities it covered, and 26% wanted to tighten the baselines to push up the price.</p>
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<p>All but seven of the 50 economists wanted either an economy-wide carbon price or an expanded safeguard mechanism that would act as one.</p>
<p>Independent economist Hugh Sibly said it might well be that nuclear, hydrogen or other sources of energy were the most efficient ways of decarbonising the economy, but it would be impossible to know until Australia started charging for emitting carbon and allowed the market to work out the cheapest way of coping.</p>
<p>Half of those surveyed wanted to expedite the building of new transmission lines to link places where electricity was being produced with places where it would be needed. One-third wanted expedited investment in large battery storage.</p>
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<p>Economists including Macquarie University’s Lisa Magnani justified this by saying it was necessary for the government to move in ahead of the private sector to provide the infrastructure the private sector would need in order to decarbonise “within the time left to act seriously”.</p>
<h2>No new mines, taxes on exports from existing mines</h2>
<p>Many experts surveyed wanted bolder measures than those proposed by the Economic Society of Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556099/original/file-20231026-21-xp740a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former OECD official Adrian Blundell-Wignall wants metallurgical coal exports taxed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.oecd.org/finance/financial-markets/adrianblundell-wignall.htm">OECD</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Former OECD official Adrian Blundell-Wignall said Australia’s coal exports create almost two and a half times the emissions Australians produce domestically. </p>
<p>“What is the point of moving to net zero on the latter while we do nothing on coal exports?” he asked. </p>
<p>His proposal, aired in the <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-an-australian-coal-tax-can-help-save-the-world-20231015-p5ecba">Australian Financial Review</a>, is for Australia to tax exports of the metallurgical coal used to make steel, forcing up the price and reducing global demand. Australia has 55% of the market.</p>
<p>If higher prices brought in more tax and resulted in less burning of metallurgical coal, it would be a win-win for Australia and the world.</p>
<p>Mark Cully, a former chief economist at the Australian industry department, said Australia should follow the lead of France, Denmark and Sweden and ban new fossil fuel projects.</p>
<p>The supply restriction would push up the relative price of fossil fuels and encourage a faster global take-up of renewable energy. </p>
<h2>Impose green tariffs on dirty imports</h2>
<p>Australia should also join the European Union in implementing a green tariff, the so-called <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/12/cbam-the-new-eu-decarbonization-incentive-and-what-you-need-to-know/">Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism</a> that imposed an emissions tax on imported goods whose emissions were not taxed in the country in which they were produced.</p>
<p>Cully said too much of Australia’s concern was directed to energy, a sector where emissions are genuinely beginning to fall. In other sectors, emissions have plateaued or are even rising, making it “inconceivable that Australia can meet its 43% reduction target by 2030, let alone net zero by 2050, without other high-volume emissions sectors contributing”.</p>
<p>Frank Jotzo, director of the Centre for Climate Economics at the Australian National University, said carbon pricing has to be complemented by targeted measures aimed at industries such as transport, building, agriculture and reforestation.</p>
<p>He said Australia will soon need to back measures that suck carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere, acknowledging that many emissions will continue and will therefore need to be offset in order to get to net zero.</p>
<h2>Critical opportunity, but critical challenge</h2>
<p>University of Tasmania economist Joaquin Vespignani said state and federal governments should “invest” in the production of the so-called <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/critical-minerals-strategy-2023-2030/strategy-glance">critical minerals</a> that will be needed for decarbonisation via tax deductions.</p>
<p>Australia has more than 20% of the proven global reserves of minerals such as <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king/media-releases/australias-lithium-powering-global-energy-transition">lithium</a> that are essential for clean energy production and storage.</p>
<p>Michael Knox of Morgans Financial noted the International Agency believed the world would need to ramp up its production of critical minerals to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">three times</a> its present level by 2030. </p>
<p>Energy investment would need to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">double</a>, and electricity transmission grids would need to roll out an extra two million kilometres of wire per year.</p>
<p>The Agency described the task as <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/herculean">Herculean</a>. Knox said it was far from certain to be achieved. </p>
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<p><em>Individual responses. Click to open:</em></p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-958" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/958/3f303543efff570b151656f7eb86fe0ec2e6846b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.</span></em></p>30 of the 50 economists surveyed want a carbon price of the kind introduced by Julia Gillard in 2012 and abolished by Tony Abbott in 2014. Several say there’s little “time left to act seriously”.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153672023-10-26T14:47:09Z2023-10-26T14:47:09ZSolar power expected to dominate electricity generation by 2050 – even without more ambitious climate policies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556078/original/file-20231026-28-48xtfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6800%2C4538&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar power is likely to become the dominant electricity source worldwide by 2050.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rows-solar-panels-field-on-plateau-370794914">Mny-Jhee/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In pursuit of the ambitious goal of reaching net-zero emissions, nations worldwide must expand their use of clean energy sources. In the case of solar energy, this change may already be upon us.</p>
<p>The cost of electricity from solar plants has experienced a remarkable reduction over the past decade, <a href="https://mc-cd8320d4-36a1-40ac-83cc-3389-cdn-endpoint.azureedge.net/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Aug/IRENA_Renewable_power_generation_costs_in_2022.pdf?rev=cccb713bf8294cc5bec3f870e1fa15c2">falling by 89%</a> from 2010 to 2022. Batteries, which are essential for balancing solar energy supply throughout the day and night, have also undergone a similar price revolution, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1272-january-9-2023-electric-vehicle-battery-pack-costs-2022-are-nearly">decreasing by the same amount</a> between 2008 and 2022.</p>
<p>These developments pose an important question: have we already crossed a tipping point where solar energy is poised to become the dominant source of electricity generation? This is the very question we sought to address in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41971-7">our recent study</a>.</p>
<p>Our findings, which were obtained by plugging the latest technological and economic data from 70 regions across the globe into a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X18300129">macroeconomic model</a>, suggest that the solar revolution has, indeed, arrived. Solar energy is on track to make up more than half of global electricity generation by the middle of this century – even without more ambitious climate policies.</p>
<p>This projection far exceeds any previous expectations. In 2022, the International Energy Agency’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022">World Energy Outlook report</a> predicted that solar energy would account for a mere 25% of electricity production by 2050.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A huge solar power plant stretching towards the horizon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555797/original/file-20231025-19-oein2p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A solar power plant in Qinghai Province, China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-power-plants-look-down-above-636564578">lightrain/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Solar and storage cheapest by 2030</h2>
<p>We identified two key factors that will drive the rapid expansion of solar energy: its affordability and swift construction timeline. The construction of a solar farm usually takes just one year to complete. In comparison, offshore wind farms can take up three years to construct. </p>
<p>The faster construction of solar farms allows investors to take advantage of their cost-effectiveness sooner than they would be able to do with offshore wind farms (and many other renewable energy infrastructures).</p>
<p>We see the interplay of these factors forming a self-reinforcing cycle. As producers and installers gain more experience, prices are projected to continue their decline. This will render solar energy an even more attractive prospect for investors. </p>
<p>Our projections suggest that the average cost of generating electricity through solar energy will decrease substantially, by 60% from 2020 to 2050, even when factoring in the growing demand for energy storage.</p>
<p>Should these forecasts prove accurate, solar energy combined with storage is expected to become the cheapest option for generating electricity in nearly all regions worldwide by 2030. In that same year, it is expected to be 50% less costly than constructing new coal-fired power plants in six major regions: the EU, US, India, China, Japan and Brazil.</p>
<p>Countries that continue to construct fossil-based infrastructure run the risk of putting their electricity-intensive sectors at a significant competitive disadvantage. Consequently, we must question whether it is realistic to rely on fossil fuels for the power sector. The future appears to be beckoning in a more sustainable direction.</p>
<p><strong>Solar is becoming the cheapest option for generating electricity</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four maps showing how solar energy will become the cheapest way of generating electricity by 2030." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556067/original/file-20231026-27-4ztmyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maps showing the energy source with the lowest average cost of electricity (including necessary storage) in the 70 world regions in 2020, 2023, 2027 and 2030.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41971-7">Nijsse et al. (2023)/Nature Communications</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>But barriers remain</h2>
<p>The rapid expansion of solar is very likely, and could lead to exceptionally affordable electricity. However, several hurdles must be overcome to ensure that solar’s ascent can be sustained.</p>
<p>Solar energy is highly variable, dependent on factors like the time of day, season and weather conditions. To accommodate this variability, electricity grids must be designed with flexibility in mind. This will require extensive energy storage, an expanded network of transmission cables linking different regions, and more investment in complementary renewable energy sources like wind.</p>
<p>In a future where solar energy dominates, there will also be a substantial demand for various critical metals and minerals. In fact, the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary">predicts</a> that, by 2040, renewable technologies will account for approximately 40% of the total demand for copper, between 60% and 70% for nickel and cobalt, and nearly 90% for lithium.</p>
<p>To ensure a steady future supply of essential materials, recycling initiatives will have to be developed further. Global mining activities must be diversified too. This will help spread the risks associated with concentrating mining activities in unstable regions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view of lithium fields in a desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555800/original/file-20231025-15-cywgiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lithium fields in the Atacama Desert, Chile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-lithium-fields-atacama-desert-2341431741">Freedom_wanted/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Access to financial resources is a critical factor in sustaining the growth of solar. But, at present, the bulk of <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/resources/biennial-assessment-and-overview-of-climate-finance-flows">climate-related funding</a> is concentrated in developed or emerging economies. </p>
<p>Between 2011 and 2020, <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-A-Decade-of-Data.pdf">75% of all climate finance</a> was channelled into North America, western Europe and east Asia (primarily led by China). Africa, one the other hand, received only 5% of total global climate finance over the same period. </p>
<p>One potential avenue to bridge this funding gap is the implementation of mechanisms that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24305-3">absorb currency and investment risks</a> in developing countries, thereby unlocking international capital flows.</p>
<p>The solar revolution has arrived. Countries and regions that do not incorporate renewables into their energy risk losing their competitive edge, particularly within their industrial sectors. To remain at the forefront, nations should not just maintain their current progress but rather accelerate their efforts to integrate solar energy into their grids, supported by investments in complementary technologies.</p>
<p>By doing so, they can avoid the looming risk of new coal and gas plants becoming obsolete and financially burdensome stranded assets. The sun is rising on a new era of energy – the time to embrace it is now.</p>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadia Ameli receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 802891).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Femke Nijsse receives funding from the Children's Investment Fund Foundation and the Department of Net Zero and Energy Security. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean-Francois Mercure previously received funding from the UK's Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UKRI, Horizon Europe and the Children's Investment Fund Foundation. He currently works at the World Bank using funds from the German Department for International Development (GIZ) under the Climate Support Facility. </span></em></p>Solar energy is set for a rapid expansion – but only if several barriers are overcome, according to new research.Nadia Ameli, Principal Research Fellow at the Institute for Sustainable Resources, UCLFemke Nijsse, Lecturer at Global Systems Institute, University of ExeterJean-Francois Mercure, Associate Professor in Climate Change Policy, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124122023-10-25T20:47:55Z2023-10-25T20:47:55ZHow sustainable, liveable and resilient housing can help us adapt to a changing future<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-sustainable-liveable-and-resilient-housing-can-help-us-adapt-to-a-changing-future" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>This summer, Canada experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/yellowknife-and-kelowna-wildfires-burn-in-what-is-already-canadas-worst-season-on-record-211817">wildfires, extreme heat</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadians-are-unprepared-for-natural-hazards-heres-what-we-can-do-about-it-201863">drought and flooding</a>. Other regions of the world faced <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-new-south-wales-reels-many-are-asking-why-its-flooding-in-places-where-its-never-flooded-before-190912">similar events</a>. </p>
<p>It’s hard not to wonder if we’re <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-planning-is-now-on-the-front-line-of-the-climate-crisis-this-is-what-it-means-for-our-cities-and-towns-193452">prepared for what comes next</a> with climate change. This includes our housing, which has a critical role to play in a sustainable, liveable, and resilient future. </p>
<p>Sustainable housing provides significantly improved environmental performance compared to (most) current housing achieving <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-net-zero-and-passive-houses-can-cut-carbon-emissions-and-energy-bills-148587">zero, or near zero, carbon outcomes</a>. However, it is more than just improving energy and water performance. </p>
<p>Sustainable housing considers impact across the whole of its design, construction, use and end-of-life phases. In doing so, it reduces <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-third-of-our-waste-comes-from-buildings-this-ones-designed-for-reuse-and-cuts-emissions-by-88-147455">material waste</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/low-energy-homes-dont-just-save-money-they-improve-lives-81084">operating costs</a>, improved <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeling-frozen-4-out-of-5-homes-in-southern-australia-are-colder-than-is-healthy-205293">thermal comfort</a> and occupant <a href="https://theconversation.com/mould-and-damp-health-costs-are-about-3-times-those-of-sugary-drinks-we-need-a-healthy-housing-agenda-147743">health and well-being</a>, and it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-climate-changes-the-way-we-build-homes-must-change-too-110969">climate resilient</a>.</p>
<p>The good news is we can deliver this type of housing right now. There are many examples of innovative new sustainable housing, and retrofits of existing housing. We explore these in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-2760-9">our new book</a> and outline some examples below.</p>
<h2>Fossil-free housing</h2>
<p>Several jurisdictions have banned fossil fuel-based heating in homes. Bans are taking place at the national level across the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230206IPR72112/energy-performance-of-buildings-climate-neutrality-by-2050">European Union</a>, at the provincial level in <a href="https://transitionenergetique.gouv.qc.ca/en/residential/programs/chauffez-vert">Québec</a>, and at the local level in <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/eb1e7-new-solid-fuel-regulations-signed-paving-the-way-for-improved-air-quality/">Dublin</a>, <a href="https://www.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/852-21/mayor-de-blasio-signs-landmark-bill-ban-combustion-fossil-fuels-new-buildings">New York City</a> and <a href="https://vancouver.ca/green-vancouver/zoning-amendments-to-support-climate-emergency.aspx">Vancouver</a>. </p>
<p>These bans are in response to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement’s</a> 2050 targets and the United Nation’s <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a>, which include moving away from polluting fuels for health reasons and the need to decarbonize our energy networks. </p>
<p>Other jurisdictions are banning the use of gas completely and requiring a shift to <a href="https://theconversation.com/cooking-and-heating-without-gas-what-are-the-impacts-of-shifting-to-all-electric-homes-210649">all-electric housing</a>. Electrification is about reducing environmental impact and delivering a more affordable healthier home. </p>
<p>In Australia, bottom-up support for the all-electric home has grown significantly (as exemplified by the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/MyEfficientElectricHome/">My Electric Home Facebook group</a> which has over 100,000 members) and is putting pressure on governments. </p>
<p>For example, the Victorian State Government recently banned the use of gas for all new housing and renovations that <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-victorian-homes-go-all-electric-2024">require a planning permit from 2024 onwards</a>. However, this approach needs to also be accompanied by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-21st-century-reinvention-of-the-electric-grid-is-crucial-for-solving-the-climate-change-crisis-173631">rapid expansion in grid capacities and decarbonization of the wider energy network</a>.</p>
<h2>Location, density, and size</h2>
<p>Sustainable housing is also about the location and scale of dwellings. Some jurisdictions are increasing the density of lots to accommodate more housing in existing neighbourhoods and where existing infrastructure and amenities already exists. An example of upzoning is the <a href="https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Measures/Overview/HB2001">Oregon’s House Bill 2001</a>, which essentially eliminated single-family zoning in most cities. </p>
<p>Oregon is also famous for its <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/lcd/up/pages/urban-planning.aspx#:%7E:text=Urban%20Growth%20Boundaries%20and%20Urban%2FRural%20Reserves&text=Each%20city%20in%20Oregon%20has,needed%20to%20accommodate%20city%20growth.">urban growth boundaries</a>, which is a statewide effort to accommodate population and employment growth within urban boundaries to protect agriculture, forests and open space. </p>
<p>House size is also important. Larger houses consume more land, materials and resources, and require more energy for heating and cooling. Cities like Vancouver and Toronto have changed zoning legislation to support accessory dwelling units, such as <a href="https://vancouver.ca/people-programs/laneway-houses-and-secondary-suites.aspx">laneway houses</a>, and legalize <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/planning-development/planning-studies-initiatives/secondary-suites/overview-secondary-suites/">secondary suites</a>. </p>
<p>There are also social movements devoted to living small. From <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-people-downsize-to-tiny-houses-they-adopt-more-environmentally-friendly-lifestyles-112485">tiny houses</a> to apartments and self-contained units, these dwellings range in size from approximately 300 to 1,000 square feet. Popular social media accounts include <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/livingbigtinyhouse">Living Big in a Tiny House</a>, <a href="https://www.600sqft.com/">600sqft and a baby</a> and <a href="https://www.nevertoosmall.com/">Never Too Small</a> which offer instruction and resources — and a community — for those wanting to live with a lighter footprint. </p>
<h2>Co-living</h2>
<p>There has been an increase in people living in shared or communal accommodations in response to decreasing <a href="https://theconversation.com/cohousing-is-an-inclusive-approach-to-smart-sustainable-cities-105208">housing affordability and climate change</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.vancouverfoundation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/VF-Connect-Engage-report.pdf.pdf">loneliness</a>. </p>
<p>Such housing can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2017.1348342">reduce environmental impacts</a> through smaller dwellings and buildings, shared spaces and facilities, and opportunities for grey water filtration systems or community-scale energy projects. <a href="https://cohousing.org.uk/about-cohousing-2/">Co-housing</a> is a model of intentional community living, which includes self-contained units with shared facilities and amenities that deliver a range of wider social benefits. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Channels like ‘Living Big in a Tiny House’ champion the small homes movements while providing community for those looking to downsize their footprint.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In Germany, <a href="https://theconversation.com/reinventing-density-how-baugruppen-are-pioneering-the-self-made-city-66488">Baugruppen</a> (German for building group) refers to a practice of self-initiated, community-oriented living where residents share the responsibility of the building. Baugruppen is an approach, not a rule book, where financing, individuals and their needs inform the development. </p>
<p>In Australia, <a href="https://www.nightingalehousing.org/">Nightingale Housing</a> is a non-profit organization working to provide sustainable and higher density housing. While the developments go significantly beyond minimum construction code performance requirements, it is the provision of shared and community spaces that is <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103469">challenging business-as-usual</a> designs. These include communal laundries, productive gardens and outdoor cooking areas designed to encourage interaction with neighbours. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that our housing will play a critical role in delivering a sustainable, affordable and resilient future for households and communities. There are examples all around the world showing us the type of housing we should (and can) be delivering right now. We don’t need to reinvent the wheel. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cooking-and-heating-without-gas-what-are-the-impacts-of-shifting-to-all-electric-homes-210649">Cooking (and heating) without gas: what are the impacts of shifting to all-electric homes?</a>
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<p>Given the climate emergency and other critical issues with our housing, we need policymakers, the construction industry and households to demand more of our housing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212412/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andréanne Doyon is affiliated with the Fuel Poverty Research Network. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trivess Moore has received funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Victorian Government and various industry partners. He is a trustee of the Fuel Poverty Research Network.</span></em></p>As climate change increasingly threatens our daily lives, we must redesign our homes to better protect us and be part of the solution.Andréanne Doyon, Assistant professor, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser UniversityTrivess Moore, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138632023-10-22T19:01:21Z2023-10-22T19:01:21ZHow to beat ‘rollout rage’: the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia<p>In August, Victoria’s Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">made a decision</a> that could set a difficult precedent for Australia’s effort to get to net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>In considering the environmental effects of the proposed $1 billion <a href="https://www.willatookwindfarm.com.au/">Willatook wind farm</a> 20km north of Port Fairy in southwest Victoria, the minister ruled that the developers, <a href="https://windprospect.com.au/">Wind Prospect</a>, had to build wider buffers around the wind turbines and observe a five-month ban on work at the site over each of the two years of construction. </p>
<p>Her reason? To protect the wetlands and breeding season of the <a href="https://www.wildlife.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/91383/Brolga.pdf">brolga</a>, a native crane and a threatened species, and the habitat of the critically endangered <a href="https://www.environment.vic.gov.au/conserving-threatened-species/threatened-species/southern-bent-wing-bat">southern bent-wing bat</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The decision shocked many clean energy developers. Wind Prospect’s managing director Ben Purcell said the conditions imposed by the minister would reduce the planned number of 59 turbines <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">by two-thirds</a> and make the project “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">totally unworkable</a>”. </p>
<p>Kilkenny acknowledged that <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">her assessment</a> might reduce the project’s energy output. However, she said “while the transition to renewable energy generation is an important policy and legislative priority for Victoria”, so was “protection of declining biodiversity values”.</p>
<p>The military uses the term “blue on blue” for casualties from friendly fire. In the environmental arena we now risk “green on green” losses, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Intelligencer%20-%20August%208%2C%202023&utm_term=Subscription%20List%20-%20Daily%20Intelligencer%20%281%20Year%29">and agonising dilemmas</a> as governments try to reconcile their responses to the world’s two biggest environmental problems: climate change and biodiversity loss. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<h2>The green vs green dilemma</h2>
<p>The goal of achieving net zero by 2050 requires nothing less than an economic and social transformation. That includes extensive construction of wind and solar farms, transmission lines, pumped hydro, critical mineral mines and more. </p>
<p>Australia needs to move fast – the Australian Energy Market Operator says <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/aemo-maps-10,000km-of-high-voltage-transmission/102833156">10,000km of high-voltage transmission lines</a> need to be built to support the clean energy transition – but we are already <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/the-energy-transition-gridlocked-regulators-have-no-answers-20231009-p5eapd">lagging badly</a>. </p>
<p>The problem is that moving fast inflames what is often fierce opposition from local communities. They are especially concerned with the environmental impacts of vast electricity towers and lines running across land they love. </p>
<p>In southern New South Wales, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">organised groups are fighting to stop</a> the construction of a huge infrastructure project, <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/projects-innovation/humelink">HumeLink</a>, that seeks to build 360km of transmission lines to connect <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/">Snowy Hydro 2.0</a> and other renewable energy projects to the electricity grid. </p>
<p>Locals say the cities will get the power, while they pay the price. “No one should minimise the consequences of ‘industrialising’ Australia’s iconic locations – would we build power lines above Bondi Beach?” <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">the Snowy Valleys Council asked</a> in a submission to a parliamentary inquiry.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Clean energy developers are caught in a perfect storm, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/michelle-grattan-uphill-road-angry-locals-renewables/102887426">at loggerheads with environmentalists and landholders alike</a> over environmental conditions, proper consultation and compensation, while grappling with long regulatory delays and supply chain blockages for their materials. </p>
<p>They see a system that provides environmental approval on paper but seemingly unworkable conditions and intolerable delays in practice. Does the bureaucracy’s left hand, they wonder, know what its right hand is doing?</p>
<p>Net zero, nature protection and “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/rollout-rage-power-struggle-and-a-shocked-minister/news-story/21aeebffca06cd116d6b077ca5a02624">rollout rage</a>” feel like a toxic mix. Yet we have to find a quick way to deliver the clean energy projects we urgently need. </p>
<h2>What is to be done?</h2>
<p>The major solution to climate change is to electrify everything, using 100% renewable energy. That means lots of climate-friendly infrastructure.</p>
<p>The major regulatory solution to ongoing biodiversity loss is to stop running down species and ecosystems so deeply that they cannot recover. Among other things, that means protecting sensitive areas, which are sometimes the same areas that need to be cleared, or at least impinged upon, to build new infrastructure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>To get agreement, we need a better way than the standard project-based approval processes and private negotiations between developers and landowners. The underlying principle must be that all citizens, not just directly affected groups, bear the burden of advancing the common good. </p>
<p>As tough as these problems look, elements of a potential solution, at least in outline, are on the table. </p>
<p>These elements are: good environmental information, regional environmental planning and meaningful public participation. The government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nature-positive-plan.pdf">Nature Positive Plan</a> for stronger environmental laws promises all three.</p>
<h2>The Albanese government’s plan</h2>
<p>Australia lags badly in gathering and assembling essential environmental information. Without it, we are flying blind. The government has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Budget/reviews/2023-24/Environment">established Environment Information Australia</a> “to provide an authoritative source of high-quality environmental information.” Although extremely belated, it’s a start.</p>
<p>The Nature Positive Plan may also improve the second element – regional planning – by helping it deal with “green on green” disputes through <a href="https://www.kwm.com/global/en/insights/latest-thinking/federal-environmental-law-reform-what-you-need-to-know-in-2023.html#:%7E:text=Regional%20plans%20will%20be%20built,development%20will%20be%20largely%20prohibited">its proposed “traffic light” system</a> of environmental values. </p>
<p>Places with the highest environmental values (or significant Indigenous and other heritage values) would be placed in “red zones” and be protected from development, climate-friendly or not. </p>
<p>Development would be planned in orange and green zones, but require <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/animals-and-plants/biodiversity-offsets-scheme#:%7E:text=The%20Biodiversity%20Offsets%20Scheme%20is,gains%20through%20landholder%20stewardship%20agreements.">biodiversity offsets</a> in orange zones. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The catch is that most current biodiversity offsets, which commonly involve putting land into reserve to compensate for land cleared, are environmental failures. </p>
<p>The government has promised to tighten these rules, but advocates ranging from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/development-could-be-banned-in-certain-areas-amid-sweeping-recommendations-20230824-p5dz5t.html">former senior public servant Ken Henry</a> to the <a href="https://www.acf.org.au/what-the-governments-plan-to-overhaul-our-national-environment-laws-means-for-nature">Australian Conservation Foundation</a> are pushing for more. A strict approach would make offsets expensive and sometimes impossible to find, but that is the price of becoming nature-positive. </p>
<h2>The need for regional planning</h2>
<p>Good regional planning – based, say, on Australia’s <a href="https://nrmregionsaustralia.com.au/nrm-regions-map/">54 natural resource management regions</a> – would deal with a bundle of issues upfront. That approach would avoid the environmental “deaths of a thousand cuts” that occur when developments are approved one by one. </p>
<p>But regional planning will only succeed if federal and state governments allocate significant resources and work together. Australia’s record on such cooperation is a sorry one. Again, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is attempting a belated <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/regional-plans-transform-environmental-protection">fresh start</a>, but this will be a particularly rocky road.</p>
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<p>The third element – meaningful public participation – involves restoring trust in the system. This requires transparency, proper consultation, and the public’s right <a href="https://www.wilderness.org.au/news-events/epbc-act-must-enshrine-a-fair-say-for-community">to challenge decisions in the courts</a>. </p>
<p>Meaningful consultation requires time, expertise, and properly funded expert bodies that can build a culture of continuous improvement. Again, Australia’s record to date has been piecemeal and poor.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>These reforms – better information, planning and public participation – will take time. In the meantime, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle">precautionary principle</a> suggests a three-pronged approach to keeping us on track for net zero. </p>
<p>One, work proactively with developers to find infrastructure sites that avoid environmentally sensitive areas. </p>
<p>Two, speed up regulatory approvals. Fund well-resourced taskforces for both, as the gains will vastly outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>Three, be generous in compensating landowners where development is approved. Fairness comes at a cost, but unfairness will create an even higher one.</p>
<p>All this makes for a political sandwich of a certain kind. Why would government even consider it? </p>
<p>The answer lays bare the hard choice underlying modern environmental policy. We can accept some pain now, or a lot more later. The prize, though, is priceless: a clean energy system for a stable climate, and a natural environment worth passing on to future generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Burnett is a member of the Biodiversity Council, which has the object of communicating accurate information on all aspects of biodiversity to secure and restore the future of Australia’s biodiversity.</span></em></p>If Australia is to meet its net zero targets it must move fast and build massive industrial infrastructure. But those projects are provoking fierce hostility. Is there a way through the green dilemma?Peter Burnett, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138792023-10-18T19:05:56Z2023-10-18T19:05:56ZThe original and still the best: why it’s time to renew Australia’s renewable energy policy<p>If Australia is to meet its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=In%20June%202022%20Australia%20updated,emissions%20budget%20from%202021%2D2030.">commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a> to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, we need to cut emissions faster. Even if all current government policy commitments are achieved – an unlikely outcome given delays in implementation – emissions are still <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022#:%7E:text=Under%20a%20'with%20additional%20measures,below%202005%20levels%20by%202035.">projected to be only 40% below 2005 levels</a> by 2030. </p>
<p>Last year the federal government announced that <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/the-82-per-cent-national-renewable-energy-target-where-did-it-come-from-and-how-can-we-get-there/#:%7E:text=But%20then%20in%20December%202022,renewable%20electricity%20target%20by%202030%E2%80%9D.">82% of all electricity production</a> would come from renewable energy by 2030. This was a crucial step. To have any chance of hitting our overall emission reduction targets, we must speed up the rollout of renewable energy. </p>
<p>Several experts, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Tony Wood at the Grattan Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/clean-energy-council-releases-power-playbook">Clean Energy Council</a> are calling on governments to consider using the Renewable Energy Target (RET) to accelerate investment in new renewable supply. Why are these experts recommending the RET as a policy option?</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>A brief history of renewable energy in Australia</h2>
<p>At the turn of the century Australia had almost no wind or solar energy generation. In 2001, the Howard government recognised the potential benefits of renewables and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/august/ret-review#:%7E:text=The%20RET%20was%20originally%20introduced,on%20top%20of%20existing%20generation.">introduced the RET</a>. The target, which was expanded and reformed by the Rudd and Abbott governments, has two elements:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target">Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target</a>, which requires retailers to buy a set percentage (currently about 15%) of their energy from renewable producers through the purchase of a Large-Scale Generation Certificate</p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Small-scale-Renewable-Energy-Scheme">Small-Scale Renewable Energy Scheme</a>, which provides an upfront subsidy to households and small businesses that install their own rooftop solar panels. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Over the past two decades, the RET has been by far the most effective of all Australia’s climate initiatives. It has led to an additional 40 gigawatts (the capacity of around <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2023/april/agls-liddell-power-station-closes-after-52-years-of-operation">20 Liddell power stations</a>) of new solar and wind generation. It has lifted Australia’s renewable generation from almost nothing other than hydro (from Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro) in 2000 to nearly <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/au/?range=all&interval=1y&view=discrete-time">37% of all electricity today</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<p>Between 2011 and 2021, the RET accounted for more than half of Australia’s greenhouse gas abatement, delivering by 2021 40 million metric tonnes (Mt) out of about 75 Mt. Over a decade that’s the equivalent of retiring two very large coal-fired power stations each year (see chart below). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554168/original/file-20231017-19-s1194o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emissions reduction in Australia by policy driver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Clean Energy Regulator</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The RET succeeded for two reasons. First, its targets extend all the way through to 2030, creating certainty for investors. Second, it created a market that encourages retailers to purchase the lowest-cost large-scale generation certificates. In purchasing a certificate, the retailer pays the difference between the cost of a project and what its generated power earns on the market. </p>
<p>That approach has diversified our renewable energy mix by making it easier to compare different technologies. For example, a wind farm might cost more to build than a solar farm but it can potentially earn more on the market by generating at the right time of day or night. A greater diversity of renewable energy sources means more reliable generation. </p>
<h2>Why has the boom in renewables investment stalled?</h2>
<p>The bad news is that while investment in <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/australian-rooftop-solar-breaks-new-ground-in-2022-clean-energy-australia-report">small-scale solar photovoltaic continues to grow</a>, investment in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/worldtoday/renewable-energy-investment-stalls/102765622">large-scale renewables has largely stalled</a>. There are two main reasons why. </p>
<p>First, Australia must build more transmission infrastructure. We have great renewable energy resources but we need new transmission lines to take that energy to homes and businesses. Governments have recognised this and are prioritising new <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2022/2022-documents/a3-renewable-energy-zones.pdf?la=en">Renewable Energy Zones</a>, with the Commonwealth providing substantial funding through its <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/rewiring-the-nation">Rewiring the Nation</a> package.</p>
<p>But the second reason for the stalled investment is less well known. The
<a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target#:%7E:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20amendment,post%2D2020%20targets%20adjusted%20accordingly.">target of 33 terrawatt hours</a> under the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Australia#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20Australia%20met%20its,terawatt%2Dhours%20(TWh).&text=With%20the%202020%20targets%20being,Victoria%20and%20the%20Northern%20Territory.">largely achieved in 2020</a> and since then has not been increased. The current legislated target is about 15%, well below the government’s commitment to reach 82% by 2030. Why did governments pivot away from the successful RET policy?</p>
<p>In the late 2010s, the Commonwealth government was not interested in increasing renewable energy targets. So state governments keen to act on climate change moved away from using the RET and other market-based policies, instead creating their own policy frameworks, known as <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/industry/long-term-energy-service-agreements">Contracts-for-Difference</a>.</p>
<p>Under these frameworks, state governments hold reverse auctions and award solar and wind projects a contract for a guaranteed price for their energy for 15–20 years. </p>
<p>Government contracts-for-difference can be a useful tool to assist new technologies, such as offshore wind, to enter the market. But they have <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/enp/wpaper/eprg1901.html">significant limitations</a> when they are used to deploy mature technologies such as solar and wind. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The most obvious problem is that, in contrast to a market framework such as the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target, under contracts-for-difference the government becomes the only market for renewable energy. The government assumes the risk of any project, freeing operators from the need to efficiently locate and run their projects. If a project fails, the public pays the cost in higher power prices or taxes. </p>
<p>Moreover, when government is buying the power, it naturally often goes for the cheapest option, thereby usually favouring solar and narrowing our renewable energy mix. And a generator has no incentive to sell its electricity to households and businesses. The result is that investors hold off building new projects, waiting instead to be awarded a contract-for-difference. </p>
<p>This dynamic is stalling investment even as coal generators near the end of their useful lives and the market demand for both energy and firming capacity grows. </p>
<h2>Governments working together to get investment flowing</h2>
<p>But there is reason to be optimistic. The states and the Commonwealth all now agree on the need to rapidly decarbonise the electricity sector by deploying renewables, transmission and storage. Now the states have the opportunity to work with the Commonwealth to incorporate their different frameworks into a nationally consistent, market-based approach built on the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target. </p>
<p>The simplest approach, which would create a pivot back to market-based frameworks, would be to legislate to increase that target each year to achieve a linear growth from current renewable energy levels to 82% in 2030. </p>
<p>Under that solution, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421521005139">history suggests</a> investors would rush to capture their share of the target. Investors and energy retailers would work together to find the right mix of technologies to deliver the lowest-cost power to consumers.</p>
<p>A national 82% renewable energy target also ensures that as other <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/sectoral-decarbonisation-plans-a-welcome-priority-for-australias-government/">sectors use electrification</a> to decarbonise, they will have access to clean energy. Without a target, electrification may lead to use of high-emissions coal power. </p>
<p>Under our proposal, state governments could still pursue their own objectives, such as supporting projects in a particular region, but they could <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12457">align their policy frameworks with the RET</a> by funding the cost of Large-Scale Generation Certificates rather than entire renewable energy projects.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>If the electricity sector does not reach 82% by 2030, other sectors will have to do more to deliver our legislated 43% reduction in emissions by 2030. This is likely to be more costly and unnecessarily increase pressure on our trade-exposed industries, which would be required to reduce emissions more quickly at higher cost.</p>
<p>No Australian emission reduction policy matches the success of the Renewable Energy Target. By working together and aligning their renewable energy policies with the target, Commonwealth and state governments can get Australia’s renewable energy investment back on track, providing us with a reliable, competitive and clean electricity system by 2030 and beyond.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the EGM, Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia, which develops renewable projects and batteries. He is also a Climate Councillor.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore an Associate Professor at Griffith University and is the General Manager Policy and Regional Energy at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tahlia Nolan is the Commercial Manager Hydrogen at Iberdrola Australia, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy and batteries. </span></em></p>Of all Australia’s climate policies, the Renewable Energy Target has been the most effective. Why have Australian governments moved away from it, and how can they revive it?Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith UniversityJoel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityTahlia Nolan, PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139992023-10-17T12:20:30Z2023-10-17T12:20:30ZWhat is a virtual power plant? An energy expert explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553720/original/file-20231013-23-zo06aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C8%2C5964%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A large-scale battery storage system in Long Beach, Calif., provides renewable electricity during peak demand periods.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/weikko-wirta-aes-southland-director-of-operations-and-vice-news-photo/1243414725">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After nearly two decades of stagnation, U.S. electricity demand <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/">is surging</a>, driven by growing numbers of electric cars, data centers and air conditioners in a warming climate. But traditional power plants that generate electricity from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54559">coal</a>, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55439">natural gas</a> or <a href="https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/decommissioning-status-for-shutdown-us-plants">nuclear energy</a> are retiring faster than new ones are being built in this country. Most <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57340">new supply</a> is coming from wind and solar farms, whose output varies with the weather.</p>
<p>That’s left power companies seeking new ways to balance supply and demand. One option they’re turning to is virtual power plants. </p>
<p>These aren’t massive facilities generating electricity at a single site. Rather, they are aggregations of electricity producers, consumers and storers – collectively known as distributed energy resources – that grid managers can call on as needed. </p>
<p>Some of these sources, such as batteries, may deliver <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-3-energy-storage-technologies-can-help-solve-the-challenge-of-moving-to-100-renewable-electricity-161564">stored electric power</a>. Others may be big electricity consumers, such as factories, whose owners have agreed to cut back their power use when demand is high, freeing up energy for other customers. Virtual power sources typically are quicker to site and build, and can be cleaner and cheaper to operate, than new power plants. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-KQEt5QqPXU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Virtual power plants are more resilient against service outages than large, centralized generating stations because they distribute energy resources across large areas.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A growing resource</h2>
<p>Virtual power plants aren’t new. The U.S. Department of Energy <a href="https://liftoff.energy.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230911-Pathways-to-Commercial-Liftoff-Virtual-Power-Plants_update.pdf">estimates</a> that there are already 30 to 60 gigawatts of them in operation today. A gigawatt is 1 billion watts – roughly the output of <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/how-much-power-1-gigawatt">2.5 million solar photovoltaic panels</a> or one large nuclear reactor.</p>
<p>Most of these virtual power plants are industrial customers that have agreed to reduce demand when conditions are tight. But as growing numbers of homes and small businesses add rooftop solar panels, batteries and electric cars, these energy customers can become not only consumers but also suppliers of power to the grid. </p>
<p>For example, homeowners can charge up their batteries with rooftop solar when it’s sunny, and discharge power back to the grid in the evening when demand is high and prices sometimes spike. </p>
<p>As smart thermostats and water heaters, rooftop solar panels and batteries enable more customers to participate in them, DOE estimates that virtual power plants could <a href="https://liftoff.energy.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230911-Pathways-to-Commercial-Liftoff-Virtual-Power-Plants_update.pdf">triple in scale by 2030</a>. That could cover roughly half of the new capacity that the U.S. will need to cover growing demand and replace retiring older power plants. This growth would help to limit the cost of building new wind and solar farms and gas plants. </p>
<p>And because virtual power plants are located where electricity is consumed, they’ll ease the burden on aging transmission systems that have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/why-its-so-hard-to-build-new-electrical-transmission-lines-in-the-us.html">struggled to add new lines</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A hand points to a lighted electronic panel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553740/original/file-20231013-26-wjqdxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A battery display panel inside a model home in Menifee, Calif., where 200 houses in a development are all-electric, equipped with solar panels and batteries and linked by a microgrid that can power the community during outages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/scott-hensen-vice-president-of-floor-planning-for-kb-home-news-photo/1244677704">Watchara Phomicinda/MediaNews Group/The Press-Enterprise via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New roles for power customers</h2>
<p>Virtual power plants scramble the roles of electricity producers and consumers. Traditional power plants generate electricity at central locations and transmit it along power lines to consumers. For the grid to function, supply and demand must be <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-curtailment-an-electricity-market-expert-explains-185279">precisely balanced at all times</a>.</p>
<p>Customer demand is typically assumed to be a given that fluctuates with the weather but follows a fairly predictable pattern over the course of a day. To satisfy it, grid operators dispatch a mix of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/?id=B">baseload sources</a> that operate continuously, such as coal and nuclear plants, and more flexible sources such as gas and hydropower that can modulate their output quickly as needed.</p>
<p>Output from wind and solar farms rises and falls during the day, so other sources must operate more flexibly to keep supply and demand balanced. Still, the basic idea is that massive facilities produce power for millions of passive consumers. </p>
<p>Virtual power plants upend this model by embracing the fact that consumers can control their electricity demand. Industrial consumers have long <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/past-present-and-future-us-utility">found ways to flex their operations</a>, limiting demand when power supplies are tight in return for incentives or discounted rates.</p>
<p>Now, thermostats and water heaters that communicate with the grid can let households modulate their demand too. For example, <a href="https://neep.org/blog/smart-energy-home-blog-series-smart-water-heaters">smart electric water heaters</a> can heat water mostly when power is abundant and cheap, and limit demand when power is scarce. </p>
<p>In Vermont, Green Mountain Power is <a href="https://greenmountainpower.com/news/gmps-request-to-expand-customer-access-to-cost-effective-home-energy-storage-is-approved/">offering its customers incentives</a> to install batteries that will provide power back to the grid when it’s needed most. In Texas, where I live, deadly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102106">blackouts in 2021</a> highlighted the importance of bolstering our isolated power grid. Now, utilities here are using <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/tesla-virtual-power-plants-vpp-ercot-puc-texas-grid/691713/">Tesla Powerwalls</a> to help turn homes into virtual power sources. South Australia aims to connect 50,000 homes with solar and batteries to build that country’s <a href="https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/solar-and-batteries/south-australias-virtual-power-plant">largest virtual power plant</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wait at a propane gas station, bundled in heavy clothes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553749/original/file-20231013-15-n4pyp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People line up to refill propane tanks in Houston after a severe winter storm caused electricity blackouts and a catastrophic failure of Texas’ power grid in February 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-line-up-at-a-propane-gas-station-to-refill-their-news-photo/1231242378">Go Nakamura/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Virtual power, real challenges</h2>
<p>Virtual power plants aren’t a panacea. Many customers are reluctant to give up even temporary control of their thermostats, or have a delay when charging their electric car. Some consumers are also concerned about the <a href="https://smartgrid.ieee.org/bulletins/july-2018/security-and-privacy-concerns-in-smart-metering-the-cyber-physical-aspect">security and privacy of smart meters</a>. It remains to be seen how many customers will sign up for these emerging programs and how effectively their operators will modulate supply and demand.</p>
<p>There also are challenges at the business end. It’s a lot harder to manage millions of consumers than dozens of power plants. Virtual power plant operators can overcome that challenge by rewarding customers for allowing them to flex their supply and demand in a coordinated fashion. </p>
<p>As electricity demand rises to meet the needs of growing economies and replace fossil fuel-burning cars and furnaces, and reliance on renewable resources increases, grid managers will need all the flexibility they can get to balance the variable output of wind and solar generation. Virtual power plants could help reshape electric power into an industry that’s more nimble, efficient and responsive to changing conditions and customers’ needs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213999/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Cohan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some power plants don’t have massive smokestacks or cooling towers – or even a central site.Daniel Cohan, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139592023-10-03T12:32:41Z2023-10-03T12:32:41ZSuperconductivity at room temperature remains elusive a century after a Nobel went to the scientist who demonstrated it below -450 degrees Fahrenheit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550757/original/file-20230927-17-jys9l4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C2%2C991%2C705&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Photograph of the first Solvay Conference in 1911 at the Hotel Metropole. Heike Kamerlingh Onnes is standing third from the right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solvay_Conference#/media/File:1911_Solvay_conference.jpg">Benjamin Couprie/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 8, 1911, Dutch physicist <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1913/onnes/facts/">Heike Kamerlingh Onnes</a> scribbled in pencil an almost unintelligible note into <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3490499">a kitchen notebook</a>: “near enough null.” </p>
<p>The note referred to the electrical resistance he’d measured during a landmark experiment that would later be credited as the discovery of superconductivity. But first, he and his team would need many more trials to confirm the measurement.</p>
<p>Their discovery opened up a world of potential scientific applications. The century since has seen many advances, but superconductivity researchers today can take lessons from <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1913/onnes/facts/">Onnes’ original, Nobel Prize-winning work</a>.</p>
<p>I have always been interested in origin stories. As a physics professor and the author of books on the <a href="https://galileo-unbound.blog/books-by-d-d-nolte/">history of physics</a>, I look for the interesting backstory – the twists, turns and serendipities that lie behind great discoveries. </p>
<p>The true stories behind these discoveries are usually more chaotic than the rehearsed narratives crafted after the fact, and some of the lessons learned from Onnes’ experiments remain relevant today as researchers search for new superconductors that might, one day, operate near room temperature.</p>
<h2>Superconductivity</h2>
<p>A rare quantum effect that allows electrical currents to flow without resistance in superconducting wires, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/science/doe-explainssuperconductivity">superconductivity allows for</a> a myriad of scientific applications. These include <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/0953-2048/30/1/014007">MRI machines</a> and powerful <a href="https://home.cern/news/series/superconductors/superconductors-boost-acceleration">particle accelerators</a>.</p>
<p>Imagine giving a single push to a row of glass beads strung on a frictionless wire. Once the beads start moving down the wire, they never stop, like a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/perpetual-motion">perpetual motion</a> machine. That’s the idea behind superconductivity – particles flowing without resistance.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nT2xCfBucT4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Superconductivity happens when a current experiences no electrical resistance.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For superconductors to work, they need to be cooled to ultra-low temperatures colder than any Arctic blast. That’s how Onnes’ original work cooling helium to near <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/absolute-zero">absolute zero temperature</a> set the stage for his unexpected discovery of superconductivity.</p>
<h2>The discovery</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Heike-Kamerlingh-Onnes">Onnes</a>, a physics professor at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, built the leading low-temperature physics laboratory in the world in the first decade of the 20th century. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1913/onnes/biographical/">His lab</a> was the first to turn helium from a gas to a liquid by making the gas expand and cool. His lab managed to cool helium this way to a temperature of -452 degrees Farenheit (-269 degrees Celsius).</p>
<p>Onnes then began studying the electrical conductivity of metals at these cold temperatures. He started with mercury because mercury in liquid form can conduct electricity, making it easy to fill into glass tubes. At low temperatures, the mercury would freeze solid, creating metallic wires that Onnes could use in his conductivity experiments.</p>
<p>On April 8, 1911, his lab technicians transferred liquid helium into a measurement cryostat – a glass container with a vacuum jacket to insulate it from the room’s heat. They cooled the helium to -454 F (-270 C) and then measured the electrical resistance of the mercury wire by sending a small current through it and measuring the voltage.</p>
<p>It was then that Onnes wrote the cryptic “near enough null” measurement into <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3490499">his kitchen notebook</a>, meaning that the wire was conducting electricity without any measurable resistance.</p>
<p>That date of April 8 is often quoted as the discovery of superconductivity, but the full story isn’t so simple, because scientists can’t accept a scribbled “near-enough null” as sufficient proof of a new discovery.</p>
<h2>In pursuit of proof</h2>
<p>Onnes’ team performed its next experiment <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3490499">more than six weeks later</a>, on May 23. On this day, they cooled the cryostat again to -454 F (-270 C) and then let the temperature slowly rise. </p>
<p>At first they barely measured any electrical resistance, indicating superconductivity. The resistance stayed small up to -452 F, when it suddenly rose by over a factor of 400 as the temperature inched up just a fraction of a degree. </p>
<p>The rise was so rapid and so unexpected that they started searching for some form of electrical fault or open circuit that might have been caused by the temperature shifts. But they couldn’t find anything wrong. They spent five more months improving their system before trying again. On Oct. 26 they repeated the experiment, capturing the earlier sudden rise in resistance. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph with the resistence of Mercury on the y axis and temperature on the x axis, showing a sharp drop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549876/original/file-20230924-17-dcurwt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The resistance of mercury as recorded on Oct. 26, 1911, by Onnes’ lab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Superconductivity_1911.png">Heike Kamerlingh Onnes via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One week later, Onnes presented these results to the first <a href="http://www.solvayinstitutes.be/html/solvayconference.html">Solvay Conference</a>, and two years later he received his Nobel Prize in physics, recognizing his low-temperature work generally but not superconductivity specifically. </p>
<p>It took another three years of diligent work before Onnes had his irrefutable evidence: He measured persistent currents that did not decay, demonstrating truly zero resistance and superconductivity on April 24, 1914.</p>
<h2>New frontiers for critical temperatures</h2>
<p>In the decades following Onnes’ discovery, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1654966">many researchers have explored</a> how metals act at supercooled temperatures and have learned more about superconductivity. </p>
<p>But if researchers can observe superconductivity only at super low temperatures, it’s hard to make anything useful. It is too expensive to operate a machine practically if it works only at -400 F (-240 C).</p>
<p>So, scientists began searching for superconductors that can work at practical temperatures. For instance, K. Alex Müller and J. Georg Bednorz at the <a href="https://www.zurich.ibm.com/">IBM research laboratory</a> in Switzerland figured out that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.16.579">metal oxides</a> like lanthanum-barium-copper oxide, known as LBCO, could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.237.4819.1133">good candidates</a>.</p>
<p>It took the IBM team about three years to find superconductivity in LBCO. But when they did, their work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01303701">set a new record</a>, with superconductivity observed at -397 F (-238 C) in 1986.</p>
<p>A year later, in 1987, a lab in Houston replaced lanthanum in LBCO with the element yttrium to create YBCO. They <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.58.908">demonstrated superconductivity at -292 F</a>. This discovery made YBCO the first practical superconductor, because it could work while immersed in inexpensive liquid nitrogen.</p>
<p>Since then, researchers have observed superconductivity at temperatures <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevB.50.4260">as high as -164 F</a> (-109 C), but achieving a room-temperature superconductor has remained elusive.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart of the discoveries of new superconductors plotted as critical temperature versus year of discovery, with each discovery labeled with a shape, color and abbreviation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549878/original/file-20230924-15-nnist7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Timeline of accomplishments in superconductivity research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg">Gingras.ol/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2023, two groups claimed they had evidence for room-temperature superconductivity, though both reports have been met with <a href="https://theconversation.com/hopes-fade-for-room-temperature-superconductor-lk-99-but-quantum-zero-resistance-research-continues-211733">sharp skepticism</a>, and both are now in limbo following further scrutiny.</p>
<p>Superconductivity has always been tricky to prove because some metals can masquerade as superconductors. The lessons learned by Onnes a century ago – that these discoveries require time, patience and, most importantly, proof of currents that never stop – are still relevant today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David D. Nolte receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Superconductivity may sound like science fiction, but the first experiments to achieve it were conducted over a century ago. Heike Kamerlingh Onnes, credited with the discovery, won a Nobel Prize in 1913.David D. Nolte, Distinguished Professor of Physics and Astronomy, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111432023-09-26T15:16:39Z2023-09-26T15:16:39ZWhat’s the carbon footprint of owning pet fish? An expert explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549367/original/file-20230920-21-sqqv47.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C4464%2C2967&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One of the most popular species of fish found in tropical marine aquariums is the common clownfish (Amphiprion ocellaris).</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/unhappy-clown-fish-swims-aquarium-tank-1449838790">jflin98/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the environmental impact of having <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cats-and-dogs-affect-the-climate-and-what-you-can-do-about-it-206812">dogs and cats</a> as pets has been examined to some extent, the impact of keeping pet fish has remained unexplored – until now. </p>
<p>Dogs in particular have a significant carbon “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-about-your-carbon-pawprint-9878">pawprint</a>”. An average-size dog (weighing 10-20kg) in Europe is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz044">responsible</a> for between 349 and 1,424kg of CO₂-equivalent emissions per year – compared with between 150kg and 251kg of CO₂-eq for an average-size cat (weighing 2kg-6kg). </p>
<p>But there had never been a study examining the carbon footprint of pet fish, despite <a href="https://ornamentalfish.org/wp-content/uploads/OATA-Annual-Report-2020-21-online.pdf">4 million</a> households owning them in the UK alone – <a href="https://www.ornamentalfish.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Customer-Profile-Survey-Results-2011-2012.pdf">70% of which</a> are tropical freshwater fish.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15478">study</a> found the carbon footprint of a tropical aquarium in the UK ranges from 85.3kg to 635.2 kg of CO₂-eq per year – equivalent to between 1.6% and 12.4% of the average UK household’s annual emissions. This estimate is based on a range of scenarios including aquarium sizes between 50 and 400 litres and different tank operating conditions. But most household aquariums sold by retailers are in the 50-to-100 litre range.</p>
<p>Electricity generation is the main source of emissions from tropical aquariums. Maintaining one requires lots of electricity to power the heaters, lights and pumps. This electricity consumption is much greater in emissions terms than the CO₂ produced in transporting tropical fish from countries such as Singapore or Indonesia to the UK and Europe.</p>
<p>However, the precise carbon footprint of an aquarium varies depending on its location. For example, tropical fish kept in France have a much smaller carbon footprint than those kept in the UK, because the French electricity grid is <a href="https://ember-climate.org/countries-and-regions/countries/france/">more decarbonised</a>.</p>
<p>This also means that as electricity grids continue to decarbonise globally, and especially in Europe, the carbon footprint of keeping tropical fish will decrease.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two graphs showing the carbon emissions of keeping pet fish" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547316/original/file-20230909-48264-8gkxww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547316/original/file-20230909-48264-8gkxww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547316/original/file-20230909-48264-8gkxww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547316/original/file-20230909-48264-8gkxww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547316/original/file-20230909-48264-8gkxww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547316/original/file-20230909-48264-8gkxww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547316/original/file-20230909-48264-8gkxww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">(a) Yearly carbon emissions produced by heating different-sized aquariums in three countries (green = Poland, blue = UK, red = France) whose electricity grids have various levels of decarbonisation. (b) Yearly carbon emissions of running a 200 -litre aquarium (2000-2022) and predicted emissions for 2040 based on pledges to decarbonise electricity grids.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Perry; Journal of Fish Biology (2023)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Water consumption</h2>
<p>Water consumption is another factor to consider. Tropical aquariums are closed systems so fish waste can build up, increasing the levels of ammonia which is deadly to fish. So, fishkeepers must perform regular water changes – which means replacing the aquarium water with treated tap water or, for marine fish, water that has been purified using <a href="https://www.practicalfishkeeping.co.uk/features/what-you-need-to-know-about-reverse-osmosis/">reverse osmosis</a> (whereby water is pushed under pressure through a semi-permeable membrane). However, reverse osmosis is not efficient and produces five litres of reject water for every one litre of purified water.</p>
<p>Estimates of water consumption for tropical aquariums vary depending on aquarium size, use of reverse osmosis, frequency of water changes and amount of water replaced. Based on industry recommendations and a range of aquarium sizes, I estimated that tropical aquariums can use anywhere between 156 and 31,200 litres of water per year.</p>
<p>For example, if you have a 50-litre aquarium and you change 6% of the water <a href="https://www.fishkeeper.co.uk/faq/how-often-and-much-do-i-need-to-change-my-aquarium-water-and-clean-my-filter/">every week</a> with tap water, you would use 156 litres per year. But if you have a 400-litre aquarium and do a 25% water change every week with a reverse osmosis system, you could use up to 31,200 litres per year. </p>
<p>Clearly, these examples represent two extremes of water consumption, equivalent to between 0.2% and 30.1% of the average UK household’s annual water use. While the upper limit can sound alarming, most aquariums sit in the middle range by both water use and emissions. But, given that drought events are expected to increase under future climate scenarios, any additional levels of water consumption can quickly become unsustainable. </p>
<p>Context is also important, as estimates on energy consumption are based on the aquarium being in a 20C (68F) room. If a central heating system is on all day or it is a warm summer’s day, this will reduce the emissions generated from heating the aquarium. Alternatively, if the room is colder than 20C, those emissions will be higher – although the heat from the aquarium will also heat the room, so may be viewed as an electric radiator.</p>
<h2>Ways to reduce environmental impact of pet fish</h2>
<p>My estimates provide the first insights into the environmental impact of a popular hobby. They show that keeping tropical fish is generally a more environmentally friendly option than keeping a dog or even a cat.</p>
<p>They can also inform our decisions on how to reduce the environmental impact of keeping fish, such as: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Use renewable electricity, generated at home or by changing electricity provider.</p></li>
<li><p>Keep the water temperature as low as possible according to species guidelines. </p></li>
<li><p>Put aquarium lights and pumps on timers. </p></li>
<li><p>Only do water changes when necessary; and </p></li>
<li><p>Re-use the reject water both from your aquarium and the reverse osmosis system. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Keeping tropical fish is a great way to enjoy beautiful ecosystems in your home. Done correctly, it can also help prevent the world from becoming a little bit more tropical.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Perry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research reveals the environmental impact of keeping tropical fish as household pets – but there are ways to reduce it.William Perry, Postdoctoral Research Associate at the School of Biosciences, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123742023-09-06T20:11:52Z2023-09-06T20:11:52ZFarmers are famously self-reliant. Why not use farm dams as mini-hydro plants?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546595/original/file-20230906-29-akhiiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=178%2C125%2C3316%2C2195&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Farmers often pride themselves on their self-reliance. When you live far from the cities, it makes sense to do as much as possible yourself. Australia’s sheer size has meant many remote farms have long been off grid as it’s often simply too expensive to get a power connection. But for those still on the grid, there are now new options. </p>
<p>As solar gets cheaper, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-27/rural-properties-going-off-grid-rewewables-for-energy-security/101637758">more and more</a> farms are aiming to become self-reliant in power. But until now, getting fully off the grid has had a sticking point – solar intermittency. Solar power might be cheaper than ever, but if you don’t have storage or backup, you’re still reliant on the grid when the sun doesn’t shine.</p>
<p>Batteries are a compelling solution. But they might not offer a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125089">full day’s backup</a> and come <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125089">with concerns</a> about fire risk and waste. </p>
<p>Generators offer reliable backup. But they too <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125089">have downsides</a> – they have to be resupplied and produce harmful emissions. </p>
<p>For farmers, there’s now another option: connect one of your dams to a river – or link two dams together – to create a small pumped hydro plant to store electricity from solar to use at night. The water in your dams could offer yet another form of self-reliance.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121715">new research</a> has identified over 30,000 rural sites where micro pumped hydro could work. A typical site could produce two kilowatts of power and store 30 kilowatt hours of energy – enough to run a <a href="https://ahd.csiro.au/other-data/typical-house-energy-use">typical home</a> in South Australia for 40 hours. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="farm dam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Micro pumped hydro is surprisingly simple: two dams, a pump and a turbine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Massive to micro? Yes, pumped hydro can work on farms</h2>
<p>Pumped hydro is essentially turning hydroelectric power into a battery as well. </p>
<p>Take two reservoirs, where one is higher than the other. When you have extra solar power, you store it. How? By using the energy to pump water uphill to the top reservoir. When you need power later on, you release water down to the lower reservoir and produce electricity with a turbine.</p>
<p>At large scale, these plants are an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/abeb5b">established and efficient</a> way to store energy, though they can suffer from cost blowouts, as in the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bowen-backs-snowy-2-0-pumped-hydro-project-despite-6-billion-blowout-20230831-p5e0u7.html">Snowy 2.0 scheme</a>. Queensland’s government <a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/about/initiatives/borumba-dam-pumped-hydro">is planning</a> massive pumped hydro schemes to act as batteries. </p>
<p>Until recently, small-scale pumped hydro hasn’t made much economic sense. </p>
<p>But the steadily falling cost of solar means the numbers have changed. It’s now more cost effective to get larger arrays. And that opens up opportunities to find ways to store surplus electricity generated in daytime. </p>
<p>For farmers, another opportunity is the ability to use existing dams and reduce pumped hydro construction costs.</p>
<p>If it’s cheaper, it’s much more viable. Early research on solar-powered irrigation systems using pumped hydro suggests the payback period for this kind of energy storage could be up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114284">four times shorter</a> than for batteries.</p>
<p>What’s the catch? As you might have guessed, this solution depends on the size of existing farm dams and rivers, and topography of the land.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The steeper the slope between the two water bodies, the more useful the system will be as energy storage. To get the most out of these systems means finding the sites with the most potential value. And it’s likely the solution won’t work for farms on flat ground – you need a drop of at least 20 metres. </p>
<p>You’re probably wondering how this stacks up financially. We compared a micro pumped hydro system with 42.6kWh capacity and able to discharge 3.6kW to a commercial lithium-ion battery, the Tesla Powerwall, able to store 13.5kWh and discharge 5.0kW. </p>
<p>We found micro pumped hydro storage was 30% cheaper than a battery if locally generated solar was regularly needed overnight – such as to power a 24/7 irrigation system. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="pumped hydro" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To date, most pumped hydro plants have been larger – but they can now work on a smaller scale too. This image shows Turlough Hill pumped hydro station in Ireland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Australia has thousands of potential sites</h2>
<p>Our research is the first continent-wide assessment of potential pumped hydro farm dam sites. </p>
<p>How did we figure out how many sites would suit micro pumped hydro? The magic of maths. We used algorithms from graph theory, as these are used to model networks, and set them loose on a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/RS13020319">2021 survey</a> of 1.7 million Australian farm dams. We didn’t want to raise people’s hopes if their dams weren’t suitable, so we set the minimum capacity at 24kWh (similar to a typical home battery after efficiency losses) and with a minimum slope of 17%, to make it price competitive with a battery. </p>
<p>That’s how we came up with our figure of 30,000 promising sites, including dam-to-dam and dam-to-river sites. Dam-to-river sites are a good option if you have a dam at a reasonable elevation above a river – you can pump water uphill from the river and return it later to make power. </p>
<p><iframe id="MoC99" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MoC99/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What’s next for this approach?</h2>
<p>You can make this approach more efficient by using new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.018">all-in-one hardware</a>, such as combined turbines and water pumps, as well as integrating it with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114284">smart irrigation management</a>.</p>
<p>To be clear, this solution won’t work for every landholder. If you’re farming wheat on flat plains, you’re unlikely to have the slope needed to make it work. </p>
<p>If you’re considering getting storage to go off grid, it’s essential to consider the pros and cons of each technology and how it would suit your local conditions. </p>
<p>For instance, if you’re in a drought-prone area with limited groundwater, it may not make sense to install pumped hydro. During a drought, you may well need the water on the farm. Our research assumes 70% of the water in the dams is available for use, which does not account for droughts or irrigation needs.</p>
<p>But for some landholders, this may be the missing part of the puzzle. Wind and solar installation is skyrocketing [around the world]. This, in turn, is boosting demand for cost-effective energy storage. Given there are 30,000 suitable farm dams in Australia alone, it’s likely this technology could play a valuable role around the world – especially for farmers in remote areas or where grid connection is too expensive. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">Batteries of gravity and water: we found 1,500 new pumped hydro sites next to existing reservoirs</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Study co-author Martino E. Malerba is supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council (project ID DE220100752).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martino Malerba is supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council (project ID DE220100752)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Britz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our research has found 30,000 farm dams which could be used as energy storage. Solar by day, hydro by night.Nicholas Gilmore, Lecturer in Engineering Design, UNSW SydneyMartino Malerba, ARC DECRA Fellow, Deakin UniversityThomas Britz, Senior Lecturer, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112612023-08-20T20:04:13Z2023-08-20T20:04:13Z5 tips for getting off gas at home – for a cleaner, cheaper, healthier all-electric future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543177/original/file-20230817-23-84peqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=124%2C7%2C5052%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/induction-cooking-home-on-black-portable-1477848773">Elena M. Tarasova, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Burning gas in our homes to cook food or heat air and water has become a contentious issue. Gas is an expensive, polluting fossil fuel, and there’s mounting evidence to suggest it’s also <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/ajgp/2022/december/health-risks-from-indoor-gas-appliances">bad for our health</a>. </p>
<p>Five million existing Australian households will need to <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">get off gas</a> within the next 30 years. But for homeowners, the upfront cost can be a major barrier to action. Renters rarely get a say over the appliances installed in their homes. And apartment owners can struggle to make individual changes too. </p>
<p>In most cases it’s worth making the switch, for the energy bill savings alone. For example, analysis suggests a household in Melbourne switching from gas to electricity can save <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">up to A$13,900</a> over a decade.</p>
<p>If you’re contemplating upgrading gas appliances in your home, or even disconnecting from the gas network altogether, here are a few handy tips and resources to cut through the confusion. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2JuZgXz6zNo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Homes must switch away from gas by 2050, says policy think tank (ABC News)</span></figcaption>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keen-to-get-off-gas-in-your-home-but-struggling-to-make-the-switch-research-shows-youre-not-alone-209589">Keen to get off gas in your home, but struggling to make the switch? Research shows you're not alone</a>
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<h2>Tip 1 – Find trusted, independent information</h2>
<p>There is no shortage of information on how to make the switch from gas to all-electric appliances. The challenge is finding <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-lemon-law-to-make-all-the-homes-we-buy-and-rent-more-energy-efficient-204369">trusted and independent information</a>. </p>
<p>Not-for-profit organisation <a href="https://renew.org.au/">Renew</a> has compiled a range of <a href="https://renew.org.au/resources/how-we-can-help/efficient-electric-homes/how-we-can-help-going-off-gas/">presentations, guides, case studies and research</a>. <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/">Choice</a> provides independent reviews of household appliances, including operating costs. The Australian government’s <a href="https://www.energyrating.gov.au/">Energy Rating website</a> provides information on appliances to help consumers compare performance. Some <a href="https://www.yarracity.vic.gov.au/services/take-climate-action">local councils</a> and <a href="https://totallyrenewableyack.org.au/">community groups</a> also provide information, support and bulk-buying schemes.</p>
<p>You could also visit some of the all-electric homes open to the public for <a href="https://sustainablehouseday.com/">Sustainable House Day</a>. This can help you learn what works from people who have already made the change. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/MyEfficientElectricHome">My Efficient Electric Home</a> group on Facebook is another active and helpful forum. </p>
<p>If you are going all-electric as part of a wider retrofit, consider an independent <a href="https://www.homescorecard.gov.au/">Residential Efficiency Scorecard assessment</a>. This will help you understand what to else you can do to maximise <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-99-retrofitting-is-the-key-to-putting-more-australians-into-eco-homes-91231">thermal comfort, environmental benefits and financial outcomes</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1683654943033692160"}"></div></p>
<h2>Tip 2 – Plan your approach</h2>
<p>Once you understand what to do, the next step is planning how to go about it. Think about what is most important to your household. What is driving the change? If it’s your health, you might like to start by eliminating indoor air pollution from the gas stove. Or if you want to save money, start using reverse-cycle air conditioning to heat your home, rather than gas.</p>
<p>There are three main ways to go all-electric: </p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Replace all your gas appliances at once</strong>. Making the change quickly minimises disruption to your home. You may save money on installation costs by doing everything in one go. You will avoid ongoing fixed gas supply charges once you disconnect from the gas network, but you may be required to pay an “<a href="https://energy.act.gov.au/switching-off-your-gas-connection/">abolishment fee</a>” for permanent disconnection. That fee can vary significantly, depending on your location and gas provider. Costs <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/would-you-pay-1000-to-get-off-gas-consumer-dismay-over-disconnection-cost-20230223-p5cmw9.html">could be up to $1000 (or more)</a> but some states like Victoria have capped the price a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/fossil-gas-death-spiral-regulator-sets-exit-fee-to-socialise-cost-of-mass-disconnection/">household can be charged at $220</a>. Renters wouldn’t be able to permanently disconnect without permission from the landlord, so they would still be open to paying the daily connection fee even if they found alternative electric options for everything else. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Replace your gas appliances one at a time</strong>, as finances allow. However, there will come a point where <a href="http://www.ata.org.au/wp-content/projects/CAP_Gas_Research_Final_Report_251114_v2.0.pdf">financially you will be better off</a> replacing all the remaining gas appliances. This is largely because it will not be affordable to keep paying the daily connection cost for gas if you just have one gas appliance remaining. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Just stop using gas appliances</strong> in favour of existing electric appliances that do the same job, such as a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-traps-laid-by-the-fossil-gas-industry-for-uninformed-households/">reverse cycle air conditioner for space heating</a>. You may have – or can buy – plug-in electric alternatives, such as a microwave ovens, portable induction cooktops, air fryers and heaters. These can be a good option for renters when landlords won’t make changes.</p></li>
</ul>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cooking-and-heating-without-gas-what-are-the-impacts-of-shifting-to-all-electric-homes-210649">Cooking (and heating) without gas: what are the impacts of shifting to all-electric homes?</a>
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<p>You could even borrow portable appliances to see how they work before committing to buying your own. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Households share their electrification journey (Renew)</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Tip 3 – Access available rebates and resources</h2>
<p>Most states offer various rebates for households to reduce the upfront cost of replacing gas appliances. These could reduce costs by thousands of dollars. Some rebates also target rental housing. Here is a list of key rebates available in different states:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/about/initiatives/household-energy-savings-program">Queensland</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/households/rebates-grants-and-schemes">New South Wales</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.climatechoices.act.gov.au/policy-programs/home-energy-support-rebates-for-homeowners">ACT</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/for-households/victorian-energy-upgrades-for-households">Victoria</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recfit.tas.gov.au/household_energy/energy_saver_loan_scheme">Tasmania</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.sa.gov.au/topics/energy-and-environment/using-saving-energy/retailer-energy-productivity-scheme">South Australia</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Some not-for-profit organisations (such as the <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/services/energy-assistance/">Brotherhood of St Laurence</a>) offer financial and other support for lower-income households struggling to pay their energy bills.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-an-easy-400-a-year-ditch-the-gas-heater-in-your-home-for-an-electric-split-system-201941">Want an easy $400 a year? Ditch the gas heater in your home for an electric split system</a>
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<h2>Tip 4 – Wait for a sale or negotiate a better deal</h2>
<p>It might sound simple but you can always save money by waiting until these electric appliances are on sale. If you are buying multiple appliances you can try to negotiate a better price. Factory seconds outlets offer lower prices as well.</p>
<h2>Tip 5 – Know the issues</h2>
<p>While the shift to all-electric will likely provide many benefits there are some things you need to consider:</p>
<ul>
<li>The carbon emissions from electricity are falling fast, and many homes have rooftop solar. Combining <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">all-electric with solar panels</a> will maximise returns. </li>
<li>You may have to adjust to how new technologies operate and perform. For example, you may need <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/goodfood/tips-and-advice/do-you-really-have-to-buy-new-cookware-all-your-burning-questions-about-induction-cooking-answered-20230810-p5dvd0.html">new, metallic cookware for an induction cooktop</a> and become familiar with their fast response. Additionally, some people find heat from reverse cycle air conditioners to be drier and/or draughtier than gas heating. Floor-mounted units heat more effectively. </li>
<li>It is not just the energy performance of appliances that matters. For example, noise from heat pump hot water services can vary across different brands. They can also require more space for installation.</li>
<li>Undertaking a wider energy retrofit (for example, increasing insulation in walls, ceiling and underfloor, upgrading windows to double glazing) may mean you can buy a smaller, cheaper reverse cycle air conditioner when replacing gas heating.</li>
<li>Electric appliances also need maintenance to make sure they perform optimally. For example, reverse cycle air conditioners have filters that must be regularly cleaned. While this can be done by households, it can be hard for people with mobility issues.</li>
<li>Depending on the capacity of your electricity switchboard or wiring, extra electric appliances may require upgrades.</li>
<li>For renters, while you could use portable appliances, you may not be able to disconnect from gas completely, meaning you would still have to pay a daily connection fee.</li>
<li>Gas and electricity prices can change over time, for many reasons. For example, if fixed gas distribution costs are spread over fewer customers.</li>
</ul>
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<h2>A worthwhile investment</h2>
<p>Australian states and territories have started banning gas in new builds. Victoria and the ACT will soon require <a href="https://theconversation.com/cooking-and-heating-without-gas-what-are-the-impacts-of-shifting-to-all-electric-homes-210649">new housing and major renovations to be all-electric</a>. Others are likely to follow. </p>
<p>For people in existing housing around Australia, it can be daunting to make the switch. Many of us have grown up with gas in our homes and when one appliance breaks, the easiest thing to do is replace like-for-like. But the weight of evidence shows it’s worth taking the time to look at the alteratives and invest in upgrading to all-electric appliances. The benefits far outweigh the costs. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">All-electric homes are better for your hip pocket and the planet. Here's how governments can help us get off gas</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trivess Moore has received funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Victorian Government and various industry partners. He is a trustee of the Fuel Poverty Research Network.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears consults to and advises a number of not-for-profit organisations involved in transition from gas issues such as the Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity, Energy Efficiency Council, Renew. He has received funding from A2EP, EEC and Energy Consumers Australia for work in this area. He writes a regular column for Renew magazine, and for other websites such as Reneweconomy and thefifthestate. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicola Willand receives or has received funding for research from various organisations, including the Australian Research Council, the Victorian State Government, the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Foundation, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, the Future Fuels Collaborative Research Centre, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Centre and the British Academy. She is affiliated with the Australian Institute of Architects.</span></em></p>Thinking about getting your home off gas, but don’t know where to begin? Here’s a few handy tips to get you on your way.Trivess Moore, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT UniversityAlan Pears, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT UniversityNicola Willand, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2094162023-07-31T17:08:53Z2023-07-31T17:08:53ZWhy we need to reuse waste energy to achieve net-zero heating systems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539953/original/file-20230728-23-6n3k7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C3000%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Just generating heat is not enough. We must also capture, store, and utilize waste heat year-round and especially in the winter months.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-we-need-to-reuse-waste-energy-to-achieve-net-zero-heating-systems" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As we move toward a cleaner energy future, there is a growing push to electrify everything, from cars to home heating. While that sounds ideal, it is also much more than a matter of simply plugging in.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/power-grid-demand-electric-vehicles-1.6440595">grid is nowhere near ready to satisfy our carbon-free energy needs</a>, especially as more and more Canadians switch to electric vehicles and we wait for more carbon-free sources of electricity to supply the growing demand.</p>
<p>We’re <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/spikes-in-air-conditioning-use-with-warming-could-tax-electric-grid/">already pushing the system on the hottest days of the year to keep our electric air conditioning running</a>, mainly by supplementing with inefficient carbon-producing natural gas or coal power plants during peak demand periods.</p>
<p>If we were all relying on electrical forms of heating, electricity demand would be substantially higher on the coldest days of the year and overwhelm the grid. The solution to this problem, however, lies not in the heat we generate but the heat we reuse. </p>
<h2>The importance of heating</h2>
<p>Heating systems keep many of us alive.</p>
<p>In a cold-climate country such as Canada it takes far, far more energy to heat homes in winter than to cool them in summer. To compare the overall energy required for heating and cooling buildings we look at <a href="https://www.degreedays.net/">heating degree days (HDD) versus cooling degree days (CDD)</a>.</p>
<p>In Toronto, for example, heating degree days outnumber cooling degree days about 7-1. Consumers may not be aware of this huge disparity, since most home heating comes from burning natural gas, while most cooling comes from electricity, but if we moved all that demand to the grid, it would become apparent all too quickly.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chart representing heating degree days and cooling degree days by various key urban areas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538570/original/file-20230720-27-9p0mm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538570/original/file-20230720-27-9p0mm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538570/original/file-20230720-27-9p0mm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538570/original/file-20230720-27-9p0mm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538570/original/file-20230720-27-9p0mm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538570/original/file-20230720-27-9p0mm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538570/original/file-20230720-27-9p0mm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart representing heating degree days and cooling degree days by various key urban areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(James S. Cotton)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Air conditioning already pushes the electrical grid when cooling indoor spaces to 23 C when it is above 35 C outside, but warming our indoor spaces to 20 C when it is -40 C outside means covering a 60-degree gap.</p>
<p>If we were to move all our heating demands to the electrical grid, even with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2019.11.011">the most modern, efficient air-source heat pumps</a>, <a href="https://www.pollutionprobe.org/future-hold-natural-gas-report">peak demand would be about four to five times what it is today</a>, and that’s not a problem anyone can solve quickly.</p>
<h2>Utilize everything</h2>
<p>Fortunately, there is another option that can keep us warm without burning additional fuel. By storing the heat generated from all sources, including waste heat, and drawing from it through the coldest months of the year, our research shows we can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261923006554">use discarded waste heat</a>.</p>
<p>A huge amount of heat generated today is simply dissipated into our surroundings and wasted, and when it’s cold outside, we use new energy to make fresh heat. That doesn’t make sense.</p>
<p>A typical pizza restaurant produces <a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US10094553B2/en?oq=14%2f791980">enough leftover heat</a> every year to heat <a href="https://www.cga.ca/natural-gas-statistics/natural-gas-facts/">seven family homes</a>. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378778821004540">hockey arena creates huge amounts of heat</a> in the process of making ice and keeping it frozen. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing the different demands of heating versus cooling systems at peak demand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538571/original/file-20230720-21-61nj78.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart showing the different demands of heating versus cooling systems at peak demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(James S. Cotton)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Same for a grocery store and its many freezers and refrigerators, a factory running industrial-scale production equipment, and any large building running commercial air-conditioners. Today <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0196890423004971">we dump all that heat into the air instead of holding onto it for when we need it</a>, leading to unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>We need to start seeing the heat we make as a readily recoverable, carbon-free resource and do much more to harness it. There is already technology that can harvest and store such heat for months in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032121000290">underground thermal batteries</a> until it is needed.</p>
<h2>Integrated heat harvesting systems</h2>
<p>We can recover the heat by piping water through hot underground batteries and running those pipes into nearby buildings, like a big boiler-and-radiator system, except the boiler is <a href="https://energy.mcmaster.ca/icepick">actually an underground battery</a> charged not with electricity, but with heat.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-21st-century-reinvention-of-the-electric-grid-is-crucial-for-solving-the-climate-change-crisis-173631">A 21st-century reinvention of the electric grid is crucial for solving the climate change crisis</a>
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<p>McMaster University is preparing to put replacement back-up generators into play, <a href="https://dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/new-electric-boilers-will-reduce-campus-carbon-emissions-23-per-cent">which will supplement grid power during peak times</a>.</p>
<p>When demand is critical on the hottest days of the year, the gas-powered generators will create the extra electricity needed to operate the campus—including sensitive labs and research facilities. If we were to capture and store the waste heat produced and tie into it in the winter, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2210670723001518">we could halve their net carbon emissions into the atmosphere</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram overviewing the ICE-Harvest plan." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538828/original/file-20230723-192659-grm0uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Modular Integrated Community Energy and Harvesting System has the potential to provide winter-long heat at considerable carbon savings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(James S.Cotton)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>McMaster leads a wider research co-operative demonstration project called <a href="https://www.gridsmartcity.com/partners-sponsors-in-motion/innovation/mcmaster-ice/">Integrated Community Energy and Harvesting</a>, or ICE-Harvest, with 30 municipalities and 19 industrial partners taking part.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261923006554">In a new paper in the journal <em>Applied Energy</em></a>, we show how such localized systems use the same energy twice.</p>
<h2>Heat batteries already exist</h2>
<p>Capturing, saving and using leftover heat is an efficient solution that can be managed by localized microthermal networks. Think of it this way: the Canadian chain Pizza Pizza is <a href="https://www.ngif.ca/harvest-systems-successfully-demonstrates-waste-heat-recovery-from-pizza-pizza-ovens/">piloting a system</a> that uses heat recovered from its ovens to heat its own hot water. The chain can then sell what is left over. In the same way an arena can sell its heat to a retirement home across the street; a grocery store to a neighbouring school, and so on.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tenth-of-all-electricity-is-lost-in-the-grid-superconducting-cables-can-help-199001">A tenth of all electricity is lost in the grid. Superconducting cables can help</a>
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<p>This solution would require <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2210670723001518">new infrastructure</a>, including buried pipes to circulate heat from source to storage and from storage to user. That would be expensive to set up, but such costs could readily be spread out over decades, as previous generations did to build highways, hydro lines and gas pipelines.</p>
<p>Existing and emerging technology can measure and regulate the gathering, sharing and distribution of heat in a system where the accounts of heat producers are credited as they add to the supply and end users are charged when they draw from the supply. It is just a matter of time before industrial, commercial and institutional players realize there is value in their cooling towers.</p>
<p>These are not far-fetched ideas. They are practical and available to be implemented now and are a realistic climate action strategy. Here in the northern hemisphere, heat is a valuable resource that’s already there waiting to be tapped, and we can no longer afford to waste it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James (Jim) S. Cotton works for and owns shares in Harvest Systems Inc. He receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (CRDPJ 401203143 - 2018) and the Ministry of Research and Innovation and Science administered by Ontario Centre of Innovation (27851-2018), Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI) and Ontario Research Fund - Research Infrastructure. The author would also like to acknowledge the McMaster Energy Research Cooperative partners for their contributions: HCE Energy Inc., GridSmartCity LDC Cooperative (Brantford Power, Burlington Hydro, Energy+, ENWIN, ERTH Power, Essex Power Lines, Halton Hills Hydro, Kingston Hydro, Kitchener Wilmot Hydro, Milton Hydro, Niagara Peninsula Energy, Oakville Enterprises Corp., Waterloo North Hydro, Welland Hydro Electric Systems Corp.), Alectra Utilities, Enbridge Gas, S2e Technologies, Geosource Energy and Siemens Canada Limited</span></em></p>As the drive towards electrification advances, one fact seems clear: it is far easier to reuse waste heat for our homes and businesses than it is to generate it anew.James (Jim) S. Cotton, Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095842023-07-12T05:58:23Z2023-07-12T05:58:23ZDutton wants Australia to join the “nuclear renaissance” – but this dream has failed before<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536986/original/file-20230712-15-jfvglj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C33%2C7315%2C3382&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-must-join-nuclear-renaissance-dutton-20230706-p5dmap">called for</a> Australia to join what he dubbed the “international nuclear energy renaissance”. </p>
<p>The same phrase was used <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/australia-and-the-nuclear-renaissance/3343652">20 years ago</a> to describe plans for a massive expansion of nuclear. New <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/advanced-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx">Generation III</a> plants would be safer and more efficient than the Generation II plants built in the 1970s and 1980s. But the <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ac80b701-bdfc-48cf-ac4c-00e60e1246a0/weo2009.pdf">supposed renaissance</a> delivered only a trickle of new reactors – barely enough to replace retiring plants.</p>
<p>If there was ever going to be a nuclear renaissance, it was then. Back then, solar and wind were still expensive and batteries able to power cars or store power for the grid were in their infancy. </p>
<p>Even if these new smaller, modular reactors can overcome the massive cost blowouts which inevitably dog large plants, it’s too late for nuclear in Australia. As a new report <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/11/nuclear-power-too-expensive-and-slow-to-be-part-of-australias-plans-to-reach-net-zero-study-finds">points out</a>, nuclear would be wildly uncompetitive, costing far more per megawatt hour (MWh) than it does to take energy from sun or wind. </p>
<h2>The nuclear renaissance that wasn’t</h2>
<p>Early in the 21st century, the outlook for nuclear energy seemed more promising than it had in years. As evidence on the dangers of global heating mounted, it became clear that the expansion of coal-fired power in the 1990s – especially <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/fading-fast-in-the-us-and-europe-coal-still-reigns-in-asia">in Asia</a> – had been a mistake. </p>
<p>And despite the prevalence of slogans such as ‘Solar not Nuclear’, the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices">cost of solar</a> and wind energy was then too high to make fully renewable systems a reality. </p>
<p>The rise of Generation III and III+ designs promised to eliminate or at least greatly reduce the risk of accidents like those at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. </p>
<p>The time seemed right for a nuclear renaissance – especially in the United States. Between 2007 and 2009, 13 companies applied for construction and operating licenses to build 31 new nuclear power reactors. But all but two of these proposals stayed on paper.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-nuclear-power-secure-a-path-to-net-zero-180451">Can nuclear power secure a path to net zero?</a>
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<p>The first, in Georgia, is expected to be completed this year after running way behind schedule and way over budget. The other project in South Carolina <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/climate/nuclear-power-project-canceled-in-south-carolina.html">was abandoned</a> in 2017 after billions of dollars had already been poured into it. The same disastrous cost and time blowouts have hit new reactors in France (Flamanville, 10 years <a href="https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Further-delay-to-Flamanville-EPR-start-up">behind schedule</a>), Finland (Olkiluoto, which opened this year after a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">14 year delay</a>) and the UK (Hinkley Point C, still under construction with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/20/hinkley-point-c-nuclear-power-station-edf-delayed-covid-costs-rise">cost and time blowouts</a>).</p>
<p>China has built a trickle of new nuclear plants, commissioning three or four a year over the last decade. China currently has about 50 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power capacity. This pales into insignificance compared to the nation’s extraordinary expansion of solar, with 95-120 gigawatts of additional capacity expected this year alone. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Olkiluoto nuclear" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Finland’s new Unit 3 reactor only came online this year as part of its Olkiluoto plant after a major delay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Nuclear falls short on cost, not politics</h2>
<p>What went wrong for nuclear? Despite the claims of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/only-nuclear-energy-can-save-the-planet-11547225861">some nuclear advocates</a>, the renaissance in the 2000s did not fall short because of political resistance. Far from it – the renaissance had broad <a href="https://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2028092,00.html">political support</a> in key markets.</p>
<p>And, unlike in the 1970s where intense anti-nuclear sentiment was tied to fears of nuclear war, environmentalists in the 2000s had refocused on the need to stop burning carbon-based fuels. Anti-nuclear campaigns and protest marches were almost non-existent. </p>
<p>What stopped the nuclear noughties was a bigger problem: economics. Governments looking at nuclear saw the cost and time over-runs and decided it wasn’t worth it. </p>
<p>As megaproject expert Bent Flyvbjerg <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.7404">has shown</a>, cost overruns like these are typical. First of a kind nuclear plants offer an extreme example of the problem. To date, no Generation III or III+ design has been produced at scales large enough to iron out the inevitable early problems.</p>
<p>At the same time, other energy sources were growing in importance. The United States <a href="https://www.strausscenter.org/energy-and-security-project/the-u-s-shale-revolution/">found ways</a> of tapping its unconventional shale gas reserves. </p>
<p>All the while, solar and wind were getting cheaper and cheaper, driven by generous subsidies from European governments such as Germany and manufacturing economies of scale in China. Solar and wind production ramped up exponentially, growing around 30% a year every year since the beginning of the century.</p>
<p>In Australia, the writing was on the wall by 2007, when an <a href="https://www.sensiblepolicy.com/download/2006/2006_Umpner_report.pdf">inquiry found</a> new nuclear power would struggle to compete with either coal or renewables. A string of subsequent inquiries have come to precisely the same conclusion.</p>
<h2>Could it be different this time?</h2>
<p>To make nuclear viable these days, advocates believe, means making it safe, cheap and easy to build. No more megaprojects. Instead, build small reactors en masse on factory production lines, ship them to where they are needed and install them in numbers matching the needs of the area. </p>
<p>Advocates hope the efficiency of factory production will offset the lower efficiency associated with smaller capacity. Ironically, off-site mass production and modular installation is the basis of the success of solar and wind. </p>
<p>To date, the most promising reactor design is <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/products/voygr-smr-plants">NuScale’s VOYGR</a>. It has yet to be produced and the US company has no firm orders. It does have preliminary agreements to build six reactors in Utah by 2030 and another four in Romania. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Solar and wind are modular systems, built in factories. So you can add more capacity easily.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>If all are built, that’s still less than the capacity of a single large Gen III plant. More strikingly, it’s about the same as the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/executive-summary">new solar capacity</a> installed every single day (~710 MW) this year around the world.</p>
<p>Even with US government subsidies, NuScale estimates its power would cost A$132 per MWh. In Australia, average wholesale prices in the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics">first quarter</a> of 2023 ranged from $64 per MWh in Victoria to 114 per MWh in Queensland. </p>
<p>So why, then, is Australia’s opposition still talking about new nuclear? Dutton <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/07/peter-dutton-ramps-up-nuclear-power-push-and-claims-labor-down-renewable-rabbit-hole">claims</a> Australia’s future nuclear submarines to be built under the AUKUS deal are “essentially floating SMRs”. This is a red herring – while submarine reactors are small, they are not modular. </p>
<p>The simplest answer is political gain. Announcements like this yield political benefits at low cost. </p>
<p>The US, UK and France have decades of experience in nuclear power, even if failures outnumber successes. So yes, there is a slim chance the latest “nuclear renaissance” will succeed in these countries. </p>
<p>But in Australia, promises to create a nuclear power industry from scratch based on as yet unproven technologies and in competition with cheap renewables is simply delusional.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-opposition-wants-a-mature-discussion-about-nuclear-energy-start-with-a-carbon-price-without-that-nuclear-is-wildly-uncompetitive-184471">If the opposition wants a mature discussion about nuclear energy, start with a carbon price. Without that, nuclear is wildly uncompetitive</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority. He has given evidence to Royal Commissions and Parliamentary inquiries into nuclear power over the past decade.</span></em></p>20 years ago, solar and wind were expensive enough to make nuclear seem like an option for Australia. With cheap renewables a reality, there’s simply no point to domestic nuclear.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.