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Some so-called superforecasters are claimed to have predicted the course of the pandemic better than scientific experts.
Preparing for a hurricane on North Carolina’s vulnerable Outer Banks.
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New Orleans has about a 40% chance of getting hit by a tropical storm in any given year. Here’s how heat, winds and the shape of the seafloor raise the hurricane damage risk.
As the old joke goes, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
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Can political prediction models pick the election winner better than the polls, the weather or Washington’s football team?
Many of the more formal models for predicting the pandemic try to understand why changes happen – but often it can be more accurate to ignore the reasons and simply look at the data.
The global financial crisis taught us recoveries needn’t be V-shaped.
Learning from past epidemics about the long-term future of COVID-2019.
The Immaculate Conception Catholic Church lies in ruins after a magnitude 6.4 earthquake in Guayanilla, Puerto Rico, Jan. 7, 2020.
AP Photo/Carlos Giusti
Puerto Rico’s January earthquakes came after many foreshocks and have been followed by numerous aftershocks. Scientists are studying these sequences to improve earthquake forecasting.
Queenslanders have taken to the water in the face of record-breaking heat.
The summer forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology predicts a hot, dry summer.
Swordfish only – no bycatch, please.
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A new tool called EcoCast helps fishermen in the West Coast figure out where it’s best to fish that day.
Technology can only go so far in making sense of our vast and intricate atmosphere.
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The warm period will occur even on top of regular climate change.
Brrr! It’s cold in here!
Winter is here, and many farmers are still waiting on their ‘autumn break’ of heavy rain. Unfortunately, it looks like it will be a dry, warm winter – although the snow season will likely be good.
Images created by NASA with satellite data helped the U.S. Department of Agriculture analyze outbreak patterns for southern pine beetles in Alabama, in spring 2016.
Big data open-access publishing and other advances offer ecologists the ability to forecast events like pest outbreaks over days and seasons rather than decades. But scholars need to seize this opportunity.
It’s exam time. Research suggests that while some students will be pleasantly surprised by how they did on exams, a larger group will falsely believe they did much better on their exams than they did.
Research shows that many students are excessively optimistic about course grades. Those with a stronger sense of personal control are also less likely to receive the grades they expect.