tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/liz-kendall-16829/articlesLiz Kendall – The Conversation2015-09-14T14:52:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/473082015-09-14T14:52:41Z2015-09-14T14:52:41ZHow Labour’s modernisers can survive in the party of Corbyn<p>It wasn’t supposed to be this way. After Labour’s election defeat at the 2015 general election, many Blairites <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/10/miliband-made-terrible-mistake-in-ditching-new-labour-says-mandelson">believed</a> that their shattered party needed a turn to the right to revive the New Labour electoral magic.</p>
<p>Instead, they are living a political nightmare, having lost first the country to the Conservatives and then the Labour party to Corbyn and his supporters. The result has plunged those who have always viewed themselves as the vanguard of Labour party “modernisers” into crisis. </p>
<p>As Peter Mandelson <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc778688-4cb6-11e5-b558-8a9722977189.html">has conceded</a>: “modernisers no longer carry Labour’s middle ground”. If they want to win it back, they must first take stock of what’s happened, and then overcome some seriously daunting challenges.</p>
<h2>Turn it around</h2>
<p>Before the outcome was announced, there had been rumblings of a legal challenge to the result, or even a parliamentary coup to depose Corbyn should he win. Now he’s triumphed not by a whisker, but with a landslide, the Blairites appear to realise they must be seen to accept the result. A sore loser, after all, is unlikely to win the public’s sympathy.</p>
<p>But it remains to be seen if the Blairites can accept how just how marginal they’ve become. Although Blairism still attracts the support of many MPs and senior party figures, Liz Kendall’s 4.5% showing in the leadership contest implies that enthusiasm amongst the grassroots is desperately low. </p>
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<p>So instead of spoiling for a coup, they must adapt to life under Corbyn. Several key figures, including most of Corbyn’s defeated rivals, have said they will not serve in his shadow cabinet. Yet they are unlikely to mount direct attacks on the leader in the short-to-medium term. They know that if they appear churlish or divisive, they might get some of the blame if the party fails to show signs of recovery by the end of the year. </p>
<p>Meantime, they may look for opportunities to limit the fallout from Corbyn’s reign, using the party’s structures to try and stop Labour taking positions they deem particularly harmful. That may mean trying to discourage Corbyn from <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/labour-campaign-stay-eu-benn-says-073820453--business.html">backing the campaign</a> to exit the EU in the upcoming referendum, or <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/09/13/tom-watson-jeremy-corbyn-labour_n_8128908.html">threatening Britain’s membership of NATO</a>.</p>
<p>The modernisers must also reassess their attitude to party colleagues. During the leadership campaign, the Blairites came across as loftily condescending, suggesting that anyone who thought differently was either mad or a revolutionary. Many seemed positively miserable about the influx of new Labour party members and supporters, reinforcing their image as a narrow Westminster elite concerned about their own careers above anything else. </p>
<p>Tony Blair himself was honest enough to admit that he <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/29/tony-blair-labour-leadership-jeremy-corbyn">did not understand</a> the massive wave of support for Corbyn, but this was insufficient to lead him question his own attitude to the phenomenon. A more humble approach may be called for, one which concedes that rival viewpoints are valid in a period where no section of the party yet has a convincing blueprint for how Labour might regain office.</p>
<h2>Moving on</h2>
<p>The Blairites also need to revise their whole analysis of British politics. During Blair’s premiership, the traditional left-wing vote had nowhere else to go, leaving Labour free to adapt policies to seek more votes in the South. Yet now Labour is simultaneously losing support not just to the Tories but also UKIP, the Greens and the SNP.</p>
<p>Pollster and political scientist John Curtice has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/21/pollster-john-curtice-warns-labour-majority-2020-election-improbable-politics">argued</a> that “events north of the border show the Blairite analysis of why Labour lost is frankly wholly inadequate”, and indeed, the party’s centrists have had very little to say about how to win back Labour’s lost Scottish heartlands. </p>
<p>More generally, they have struggled to set out an appealing centre-left agenda, raising suspicions that they had not really moved on from Blair’s “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/feb/10/labour.uk1">third way</a>” vision.</p>
<p>Having woefully misjudged the leadership campaign, all Corbyn’s opponents must avoid compounding this error by assuming he will quickly fail as leader. While the likes of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/13/chuka-umunna-quits-over-jeremy-corbyns-eu-stance">Chuka Umunna</a> and <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/calendar/update/2015-09-14/caroline-flint-to-return-to-the-backbenches/">Caroline Flint</a> have opted for life on the backbenches, others (among them <a href="http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9559092/the-humiliation-that-turned-andy-burnham-from-blairite-to-union-man/">one-time Blairite</a> Burnham and Tony Blair’s old flatmate, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/248271.stm">Lord Falconer</a>) have already decided that engagement is the better approach.</p>
<p>Corbyn’s dramatic surge was largely fuelled by a profound dissatisfaction with traditional Westminster politics and a thirst for bolder opposition to the Tory agenda. These issues are much bigger than Labour’s own problems, and demand fresh, daring ideas from anyone who wants to chart a different political course. So if they want to stay relevant, the modernisers may have to modernise in ways they never anticipated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart McAnulla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>They were, they thought, the party’s best hope – and they were humiliated. What next for the New Labour believers?Stuart McAnulla, Lecturer in British Politics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/474492015-09-12T11:18:47Z2015-09-12T11:18:47ZJeremy Corbyn wins Labour leadership election – so what next?<p>What began as something beyond the realms of possibility ended as an inevitability. Jeremy Corbyn’s victory in the Labour leadership election represents – depending on one’s perspective – either the rebirth of the party and the final demise of the careerists who led it astray, or, the deepest crisis in its 115-year history.</p>
<p>Corbyn secured 59.5% in the first round of voting, beating the other candidates by a significant margin. Andy Burnham took 19%, Yvette Cooper 17% and Liz Kendall 4.5%.</p>
<p>Importantly, Corbyn won across all categories of eligible voters giving him what the BBC referred to as a “rock-solid mandate”.</p>
<p>Leadership elections can normally be explained in terms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-corbyn-is-winning-and-how-labours-moderates-can-stop-him-45339">unity, electability and competence</a>, with the winning candidate being the one best able to unite a divided party and/or offer the best chance of electoral victory, while looking like a credible prime-minister-in-waiting.</p>
<p>But this Labour leadership contest was not normal. It was decided on an altogether different basis. The combination of an uninspiring line-up of candidates, <a href="https://theconversation.com/well-labour-this-is-what-happens-when-you-crowdsource-a-leadership-election-45177">new selection rules</a> and the shock of the 2015 general election defeat left Labour open to a left-wing insurgency. It appeared to come out of nowhere but was actually <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11849665/Make-no-mistake-Labour-is-at-war-with-itself.html">five years in the making</a>, with Corbyn its <a href="https://theconversation.com/jeremy-corbyn-the-accidental-labour-leader-47117">unsuspecting beneficiary</a>.</p>
<h2>How he did it</h2>
<p>Ed Miliband’s victory in the 2010 Labour leadership contest, delivered by union votes, marked the start of a new assertiveness in internal Labour affairs by the party’s affiliated trade unions. Since then, <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1235496/unite-union-threatens-to-pull-labour-support">Unite</a>, under Len McCluskey, has been forthright in demanding a strong Labour platform against austerity. Along with other unions and ginger groups such as the People’s Assembly Against Austerity, Unite has helped create a left-wing narrative against cuts that has taken root within the wider Labour Party.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/well-labour-this-is-what-happens-when-you-crowdsource-a-leadership-election-45177">new selection rules</a> opened the door to this left-wing revolt – though not before moderate Labour MPs, seeking to “widen the debate” in the leadership contest, helped Corbyn pass the nomination threshold of 15% of Labour MPs. Under the new one-member-one-vote rules, individuals could sign up as full members, as affiliated supporters for free via their unions or as registered supporters for just £3. The contest was dogged by controversy, with accusations of left-wing <a href="https://theconversation.com/whoever-wins-the-labour-partys-entryism-panic-will-come-back-to-bite-it-46637">entryism</a> as well as Tory trouble-makers applying to vote, then claims of a <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/labour-purging-supporters-jeremy-corbyn">purge</a> of Corbynites.</p>
<p>Once Corbyn was on the ballot, his allies mobilised. The potential electorate increased from under 200,000 in May to 550,000 in September. A coalition of idealistic youngsters, anti-austerity union activists and grizzled left-wingers returning to the party they quit in disgust under Blair has proved to be a large part of that dramatic increase.</p>
<p>They delivered victory to Corbyn against the odds. Much of this victory was achieved online, with Corbyn’s cyber-left supporters spreading his message, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-supporters-accused-of-launching-snpstyle-cyber-attacks-on-labour-leader-rivals-10452587.html">denouncing his opponents</a> and encouraging others to sign up to vote. This contest has been Britain’s first social media leadership election – though in the eyes of Labour moderates, it became a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/06/labour-moderates-leadership-jeremy-corbyn-tony-blair">flash-mob democracy</a>.</p>
<h2>Holding onto power</h2>
<p>During the contest, Corbyn regularly called on registered and affiliated supporters to become full party members – not least because he hopes they will provide a firm base of support now that he is leader. Only as full members will they be able to participate in Labour policy-making and in the selection of parliamentary candidates.</p>
<p>That is vital because Corbyn enjoys very little support among Labour MPs. Several big-hitters, including leadership hopefuls Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall, have already <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11859694/Jeremy-Corbyn-faces-a-dozen-shadow-cabinet-resignations-if-he-wins-Labour-leadership.html">ruled out serving</a> in his shadow cabinet. Within minutes of Corbyn’s victory, Jamie Reed, the shadow health minister, had resigned. Many others are biding their time and waiting for him to fail.</p>
<p>Certainly, Corbyn’s authority would be undermined if, say, he voted against future UK military action in Syria but a majority of his MPs backed it. The EU referendum could have a similar effect. Hence, Corbyn will need to show that he enjoys a wider mandate within the party, perhaps holding conference votes or even membership plebiscites to demonstrate that the grassroots are with him.</p>
<p>In the longer term, he will need to deal with potential threats from Labour MPs. To this end, some have raised the prospect of reintroducing <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/06/tom-watson-corbyn-supporters-mandatory-reselection">mandatory reselection for MPs</a>, harking back to a Bennite-inspired rule from the 1980s that helped left-wing constituency activists to keep moderate MPs in line. Such a move would require a change to Labour’s constitution to be passed by the party conference, but given that the unions – most of which back Corbyn – hold 50% of the votes, it would be possible.</p>
<h2>How long has he got?</h2>
<p>For Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn, the immediate future looks bleak. There’s no formal mechanism to hold a confidence vote in the leader, though an unofficial vote could be held. They would have to wait a year to challenge Corbyn for the leadership, which would require a candidate to be nominated by 20% of Labour MPs.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94565/original/image-20150912-19828-oad5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94565/original/image-20150912-19828-oad5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94565/original/image-20150912-19828-oad5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94565/original/image-20150912-19828-oad5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94565/original/image-20150912-19828-oad5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94565/original/image-20150912-19828-oad5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94565/original/image-20150912-19828-oad5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tom Watson has been elected deputy leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BBC</span></span>
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<p>That could be feasible but under the current selection rules there is no guarantee that the result of the voting among party members would be any different. Moreover, there is no certainty that Corbyn will simply fail and lose support quickly. He will have powerful backers from the unions and among the new members, as well as strategic and managerial input from a committed <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11820890/The-five-pillars-of-Jeremy-Corbyns-bid-to-run-Britain.html">backroom team</a>. Moderates will hope that the newly-elected deputy leader, Tom Watson, will prove a restraining influence.</p>
<h2>Panic on the right</h2>
<p>The Labour right finds itself in the worst situation it has ever been in during the party’s history. It is much worse than the 1980s when <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/932797.stm">Michael Foot</a> was leader. Foot was chosen by the MPs themselves and had served in the Callaghan government. Corbyn is an outsider, an inveterate rebel and a standard-bearer of the far-left. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, a section of the Labour right split away to form the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/26/newsid_2531000/2531151.stm">SDP</a>. The fate of that party is a <a href="http://labourlist.org/2012/03/labour-vs-the-sdp-31-years-on-who-was-right/">cautionary tale</a> for today’s moderates about the potential consequences of a split. But if the left remains in control, Labour’s polling plummets and the moderates find themselves in the cross-hairs of local Corbynistas looking to remove them, some may decide that an SDP-Mark II is the least-worst option.</p>
<p>In the meantime, Corbyn will need to argue his case to voters for left-wing policies that they have hitherto shunned. The government will politicise issues on which Corbyn is on the wrong side of public opinion. Corbyn supports unilateral nuclear disarmament – voters do not. The government wants to find £12 billion in welfare cuts, including reducing the benefit cap. Voters support welfare reform, but Corbyn strongly opposes it. Voters accept the <a href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/umkary60am/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Government%2520Cuts-040515.pdf">necessity for cuts</a> to reduce the budget deficit, but Corbyn and his union backers made opposition to austerity a central plank of their campaign. Corbyn favours immigration and a generous approach to asylum-seekers, but voters, despite recent events, prefer a more <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/09/06/no-increase-syrian-refugee-numbers/">restrictive policy</a>. And while a majority supports renationalising the railways, the issue isn’t deciding many votes. If nothing else, the next few years will test to destruction the theory that it’s possible to win an election from the left.</p>
<p>The Conservatives will believe that with Corbyn’s victory, all their Christmases have come at once. David Cameron has already staked a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11858320/David-Cameron-Jeremy-Corbyn-is-unfit-to-lead-the-Labour-Party.html">claim to the centre-ground</a> that Labour looks to be vacating. The Tories will present themselves as the only party that can be trusted to defend the country and manage the economy. They will paint Labour as extreme and unfit to govern, and will be enthusiastically assisted by the Conservative-supporting press.</p>
<p>Labour is entering uncharted waters. Whatever the future holds – a left-right civil war, defections and splits, attempted coups, a return to left-wing street politics of marches and demos – one thing is certain: British politics is changing in a dramatic way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47449/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Left-wing candidate storms to victory in first round of voting.Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/473782015-09-11T05:33:36Z2015-09-11T05:33:36ZCorbyn cometh: has 21st-century UK protest politics just fully bloomed?<p>The unthinkable has happened. Jeremy Corbyn <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/12/labour-announces-leadership-election-result-with-corbyn-tipped-to-win-politics-live">has won</a> the Labour leadership election by a landslide, easily taking more than the other three candidates put together. With a huge groundswell of support from the several hundred thousand people who have joined the party since the last election, the radical democratic socialist has snatched Labour from under the noses of the establishment. </p>
<p>It comes at a time when the UK <a href="http://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Audit-of-Political-Engagement-11-2014.pdf">has never been</a> more disillusioned with mainstream politics. The major parties are viewed as too similar, made up of representatives who are far-removed from the experiences of ordinary people – step forward Corbyn’s rival leadership contenders. What we are not used to is these perceptions affecting political participation. The way in which we used to register our discontent was by passively rejecting party politics. <a href="http://samples.sainsburysebooks.co.uk/9781317524328_sample_1076582.pdf">Only around</a> 1% of the electorate are members of a political party, compared to nearly 4% in 1983 <a href="http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05125">for example</a>. </p>
<p>Corbynmania may be challenging this trend, however. In an extraordinary period in the history of the Labour party, an avowedly left-wing candidate has generated a level of support and enthusiasm that <a href="http://www.versobooks.com/books/1447-ruling-the-void">we don’t tend to associate</a> with modern UK politics, or indeed with established democracies. The full implications of these events are as yet unclear but they may have sparked an appetite for a more participatory model of politics in this country. </p>
<p>At the end of 2014, Labour membership <a href="http://samples.sainsburysebooks.co.uk/9781317524328_sample_1076582.pdf">stood at</a> 193,000, having not exceeded 250,000 since 2000. Then came <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/01/how-labours-proposed-new-leadership-election-system-would-work">Ed Miliband’s changes</a> to the party rules for leadership contests, aimed at extending democratic engagement. These created a selectorate of three groups – members, supporters and trade union affiliates. </p>
<p>Supporters and full members <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/26/labour-leadership-election-party-to-check-voting-history-of-new-supporters">have come</a> to the party in large numbers, generating substantial fees in the process. Of the 554,000 eligible to vote in the current election – which is after the party’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/20/labour-leadership-election-rejected-supporters-express-their-anger">weeding out</a> of illegitimate sign-ups – 293,000 are full members (fees vary, but can be £50), 113,000 are supporters (fees £3), and the remaining 148,000 are trade union affiliates. While Corbyn has been most popular among the union sign-ups, <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/08/10/corbyn-pull-ahead/">he has</a> enjoyed widespread support among all three groups. </p>
<p>On the face of it, participation in UK politics has obviously been enhanced by the Labour leadership campaign – albeit perhaps in a shallow form given it was possible to sign up for the price of a latte. The real test of engagement will be whether these £3 supporters remain involved. Harriet Harman <a href="http://www.sunnation.co.uk/5-things-we-learned-from-harriet-harmans-andrew-marr-interview/">has suggested</a> this group will naturally convert to full membership to influence policy, but these are probably false hopes.</p>
<h2>People power</h2>
<p>The Corbyn surge may also have wider implications. The swell of enthusiasm for this radical candidate involves rejecting right-wing austerity economics, inequality and elitism, and it has the feel of a mass movement. Clearly the UK is not immune to forces that have already been evident in <a href="http://revolting-europe.com">European</a> and <a href="http://occupywallst.org">US politics</a>. The Corbyn message has appeared authentic, sincere and consistent, not labels commonly attached to politicians. </p>
<p>Perhaps even more important has been its sense of hope and optimism, reminiscent of the <a href="http://www.yesscotland.net/thankyou.html">Yes campaign</a> in the Scottish independence referendum. A positive vision can be inspiring, particularly at a time when many citizens in the UK and elsewhere are desperate for some good political news. Corbyn recognises that popular trust in politics is critical and requires nurturing. This is why he advocates a Labour party built on genuine input from the grassroots. </p>
<p>Corbyn’s campaign has taken the shape of a traditional style of politics, namely the political meeting. He has addressed more than 100 meetings and rallies, with many spillover talks and many people turned away – further echoes of the Scottish Yes campaign – and this has combined with a modern, professional and energetic online campaign. </p>
<p>What we are observing in Labour politics might even have been inspired by events north of the border. Remember that Yes backers the <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/boost-for-snp-as-membership-hits-100-000-mark-1-3725308">SNP</a> and <a href="http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/membership-surge-sets-up-strong-scottish-green-mp-campaign/">Scottish Greens</a> both experienced a dramatic increase in membership following the referendum. There <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11600345/Why-are-so-many-people-joining-the-Liberal-Democrats.html">was even</a> a rise in membership of the heavily defeated Liberal Democrats following the general election. Note the break from the past here: until recently, membership increases were associated with election success, not failure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94411/original/image-20150910-27309-amqzco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Scotland’s latest export?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=Yes%20Scotland&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=205896952">EQRoy</a></span>
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<h2>A new politics?</h2>
<p>Put this all together and it begins to look like we may be entering a new age of protest politics, born of deep disillusionment with the political mainstream. Voters on the centre-left may be persuaded that a viable alternative exists and politicians who can articulate this alternative might inspire a new generation – in a reversal of the <a href="http://www.britannica.com/topic/New-Right">politics that ended</a> the social-democratic consensus of the 1970s. </p>
<p>Then again, we must bear in mind that the politics of party membership is unrepresentative of the electorate at large. What wins an internal party debate is unlikely to win a general election. Conventional wisdom suggests this will be protest to no end. That won’t stop the Corbynistas hoping that this is the beginning of a reshaping of the ideological debate in UK politics – and perhaps even a new model of democratic politics. But for them to be right we’ll still need to see the sort of sea change that has not happened in this country for a very long time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lynn Bennie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Labour Left’s fourth choice of candidate prepares to take the party reins, he may have taken the lead from Scotland’s Yes campaign and ushered in a new age in UK politics.Lynn Bennie, Reader in Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/460972015-09-01T17:54:59Z2015-09-01T17:54:59ZWhere do the Labour leader contenders stand on immigration?<p>Two stories have dominated the British news agenda this summer – the migration crisis in Europe and the Labour leadership contest. With the vote on the latter fast approaching, it’s worth considering where the candidates stand on the former. </p>
<p>The jury is still out on why Labour failed to appeal to enough of the electorate in the 2015 election. What is certain is that it lost voters to UKIP (as well as the SNP). Again, there are probably many reasons why many traditional Labour voters plumped for UKIP but one of them is plainly that Labour failed to convince this cohort that it had a sound immigration policy. </p>
<p>With public concerns over immigration consistently rising, and neither Labour nor the Tories <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/15/health-tops-immigration-second-most-important-issu/">“winning”</a> the debate, it’s becoming clear that no centrist party knows which way to turn.</p>
<p>So what are the candidates in the Labour leadership election offering by way of immigration policies? Can they do better than Ed Miliband?</p>
<h2>Jeremy Corbyn</h2>
<p>Immigration is not among the <a href="http://jeremycorbyn.org.uk/priorities/">11 key policies</a> that front runner Jeremy Corbyn “is standing to deliver”.</p>
<p>In the upcoming EU referendum, free movement will necessarily be a big issue. Corbyn’s position on the UK’s continuing participation in the Union after negotiations is precarious. He sees a need for more trade union involvement and argues that the UK must demand reasonable levels of working rights to seal the deal. But this will not be on the table as David Cameron seeks to <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/26c75976-4fc5-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.html">negotiate</a> new terms for the UK.</p>
<p>Corbyn’s support for trade unionism means he is naturally concerned about wages for low skilled work being undercut by immigration. This is similar to Miliband’s views so we might expect Corbyn to propose something akin to Labour’s election promise to tackle the <a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/manifesto/immigration">exploitation of migrant workers</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless Corbyn has said that the debate on immigration has been <a href="http://jeremycorbyn.org.uk/articles/m-star-the-poisoned-debate-on-immigration/">“poisoned”</a>, and has criticised his party’s weak defence on the issue. He has campaigned on behalf of asylum seekers, and emphasises the important role that <a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/watch-labour-leadership-hustings">mosques</a> have played in supporting refugees. But this all means he sits awkwardly between being suspicious of internationalism while championing migration and multiculturalism. </p>
<h2>Yvette Cooper</h2>
<p>As the former shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper has more to say on immigration. Her policies are, unsurprisingly, not dissimilar to those touted by Labour in its 2015 campaign.</p>
<p>In her ministerial role, Cooper did a lot of apologising for Labour’s “mistakes” on immigration, and has <a href="http://press.labour.org.uk/post/102953239474/yvette-cooper-speech-labours-approach-to">parroted</a> the need to address the real concerns people have on immigration.</p>
<p>She has said in the past that Labour would call for the EU to provide <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30091574">dedicated funding</a> to help regions cope when their populations rise as a result of immigration. It’s a novel idea but how it would operate in practice remains to be seen. </p>
<p>Like Corbyn, Cooper claims that the challenge is to face up to the exploitation of migrant labour by making it a crime, saying that such exploitation is modern day slavery. Yet like her former leader and her fellow contenders she maintains that EU citizens should not be allowed to claim benefits for at least two years.</p>
<h2>Andy Burnham</h2>
<p>Andy Burnham seems to have the least to say on immigration, although he’s very keen on his catchphrase <a href="http://www.andy4labour.co.uk/andy_s">“freedom to work is not the same as freedom to claim”</a>. Burnham’s statements on immigration are indistinguishable from the 2015 campaign, and in many respects, those put out by the government. </p>
<p>He warns that the EU referendum risks being lost unless there are significant changes to EU migration. And – you guessed it – he also wants to ban EU citizens from claiming welfare benefits until they have worked for two years.</p>
<p>Burnham has mentioned the possibility of EU funding to plug the gap in costs to public services in areas most affected by migration, but this seems to be an afterthought lifted from Cooper. He claims that “people have legitimate concerns about immigration”, and that Labour therefore needs “real answers to these concerns”. As a prospective leader one would think Burnham should be supplying some answers but we are yet to hear what these real solutions are.</p>
<h2>Liz Kendall</h2>
<p>According to Liz Kendall, the final Labour leader contender, the solution is to reintroduce an Australian style points-based system, as people are fed up seeing migrants <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liz-kendall-says-she-wants-an-australianstyle-pointsbased-immigration-system-10328214.html">“scrambling on to lorries from Calais”</a>. Advocating the same policy as <a href="http://www.ukip.org/ukip_launches_immigration_policy">UKIP</a> tells you something about where Kendall sits on this issue. She claims that <a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/watch-labour-leadership-hustings">“terrorism and migration are global challenges”</a> and that we must “get real over controlling immigration”. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"596602886550851584"}"></div></p>
<p>Kendall has also <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11657740/Blairite-Labour-leadership-contender-Liz-Kendall-backs-taking-benefits-away-from-EU-migrants.html">talked about</a> taking tax credits away from new migrant workers, on top of restricting access to benefits and social housing. Despite this, she has repeatedly <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/06/liz-kendall-offers-tentative-support-for-cutting-benefits-for-eu-migrants/">dodged questions</a> about whether she would support restricting benefits for EU migrants – a seemingly odd move given her fairly clear position on the issue, not to mention <a href="http://www.lizkendall.org/launching-labours-plan/">her endorsement of Miliband’s pledge</a> on this. Apparently she <a href="https://twitter.com/mhallward/status/619246623890259968">hated the mugs</a> though. </p>
<p>All things considered, there is little to separate the immigration policies of the so-called New Labourites in this leadership contest. As on so many other issues, Corbyn stands apart from the pack. But his ideological vision doesn’t lend itself to producing a coherent immigration policy either.</p>
<p>Just as the narrative about Labour causing the recession became fact, with all the contenders claiming they got it wrong on immigration there is little room for any debate. Yet with Labour’s socially conservative <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/labour-are-becoming-toxic-brand-warns-jon-cruddas">voters long defected to UKIP</a>, and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-pledges-to-control-and-reduce-immigration">Tories adopting Miliband’s policies</a> unnoticed, perhaps it is time for a change in tack.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Consterdine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A run down of what each has to say on the top issue of the summer.Erica Consterdine, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Immigration Politics & Policy, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/464182015-08-20T17:03:33Z2015-08-20T17:03:33ZCorbyn may be unelectable — but so are his rivals<p>Labour Party HQ is on red alert. The election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader is seen as a real and dangerous prospect by the majority of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Countless <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33959130">party grandees</a> have warned members of the dangers of turning Labour into a protest movement and some talk openly of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33873722">suspending the contest</a>, coups and guerrilla tactics in desperate moves to stop Corbynmania.</p>
<p>Corbyn’s supporters say he has energised the leadership contest and attracted thousands of new party members and supporters. His <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11810783/Jeremy-Corbyn-My-Labour-critics-should-be-happy.html">critics</a> say he cannot secure an electoral majority at the 2020 general elections. But it is far from clear that any of the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/08/14/jeremy-corbyn-would-win-more-votes-at-general-election-poll-finds_n_7989800.html">other three contenders</a> can either.</p>
<p>So far, no one has shown that they understood the causes of Labour’s defeat in 2015 and the problems social democracies have had all over the world following the global financial crisis. Instead, they have preferred to talk about micro policy ideas, such as free childcare and sex education policies. None seem to fit into a larger narrative.</p>
<p>The truth of the matter is that the Labour Party is stuck in a very deep hole. <a href="http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/The-Mountain-to-Climb.pdf">Research</a> from the Fabian Society shows that in order to secure a majority in 2020, Labour needs to gain at least 106 seats in very different parts of the country. Considering the forthcoming constituency <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-reforming-britains-electoral-system-will-be-harder-than-ever-41631">boundary changes</a> and the advent of <a href="https://theconversation.com/2014-the-year-the-old-guard-woke-up-to-multi-party-politics-35775">truly multi-party politics</a>, that task seems like mission impossible.</p>
<p>In order to win, Labour needs to find an electoral formula that attracts Tory voters in the south of England and UKIP voters in the Midlands and north-east of England. In Scotland it needs to attract SNP voters and the south-west and English urban centres cities it needs to pull in Liberal Democrat and Green voters. None of the current contenders to the leadership of the Labour Party has so far shown that they are able to pull off this very difficult electoral trick.</p>
<h2>Reframing the debate</h2>
<p>Andy Burnham, who offers a more personable version of <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2012/07/what-milibandism">Milibandism</a>, lost his position as front runner as a result of Corbymania. Next to Corbyn he looks bland, confused (he attacks Corbyn’s lack of credibility but offers him a role in the shadow cabinet) and at times desperate.</p>
<p>Yvette Cooper looks like safe pair of hands, exudes competence and has the poise to face David Cameron at the dispatch box. But she is far from inspiring or exciting. Her <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/13/yvette-cooper-jeremy-corbyn-policies-not-credible-labour">feminist version</a> of Milibandism (her bid focuses on childcare and on tackling gender inequality and sexism) may sound sensible but it is hardly the stuff that enthuses voters.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GUC4Ux2sfvA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Yvette Cooper interview on Newsnight.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Liz Kendall is the only candidate that offers a break with Milibandism (though many of her flagship ideas come from the party’s 2015 manifesto). But she is seen as inexperienced and is paying a heavy price for her association to the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11630650/Labours-Blairites-are-rallying-around-Liz-Kendall.html">Blairite wing</a> of the party.</p>
<p>Kendall’s strategy of telling <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/06/yvette-cooper-and-liz-kendall-put-in-strong-performances-at-fabian-hustings/">“hard truths”</a> to Labour members is not paying off – as her <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/08/10/corbyn-pull-ahead">position in the polls</a> suggests. She is probably the only candidate with the capacity to attract former Conservative voters from the south of England but she could lose the party many votes in the north-east of England and English cities. Worse still, she may have no impact at all in Scotland.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92573/original/image-20150820-7243-1urure5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92573/original/image-20150820-7243-1urure5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92573/original/image-20150820-7243-1urure5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92573/original/image-20150820-7243-1urure5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92573/original/image-20150820-7243-1urure5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=938&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92573/original/image-20150820-7243-1urure5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=938&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92573/original/image-20150820-7243-1urure5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=938&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andy Burnham.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/photographicleigh/6245805143/in/photolist-avVogz-aFmF2n-aFmF7p-aFmFb2-aFnR38-8LkScg-ryDAd9-7VUtGf-5YLUH9-8ojsar-8om7m3-8VYumh-8t3C4c-fr7Edg-6M2X9i-aFsUm2-8ojs7c-8ojrNa-8onvC3-8ojrV6-8ojiPk-8onx8C-8ojrHk-9AfHVk-djgbD8-8nK98T-8onAsS-8onzt7-8ojqgB-8onyvo-8onv8E-aFmF4x-77FGNv-aFqUNx-8LkS2H-8oxK5v-aFqUZZ-aFqUSz-8onyZu-wXfU2x-aFmFea-aFmFhk-7p2Z1J-psS24M-85jp6J-8LoScs-7Tr7e4-7Tr73g-8sMuXp-85ggQT">photographic-leigh/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, Corbyn seems to have understood that there is a growing constituency of citizens that is hungry for a different style of politics and for alternatives to austerity. His problem, however, is that an equally large number of voters reject his ideas.</p>
<p>With slight differences in emphasis, Burnham, Cooper and Kendall like to present their proposals as “grown-up”, credible and in contrast to the “loony-left” politics of Corbyn, which will condemn Labour to eternal opposition. But what none of them can explain is why those supposedly responsible <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/aug/13/labour-leadership-candidates-comparison-burnham-cooper-corbyn-kendall">policies</a> have in the past decade condemned European economies to stagnation and European social democratic parties to electoral oblivion.</p>
<p>They seem to accept the narrow confines of the political debate that are set by the right. From the economy to welfare, from immigration to the relationship between state and market, they seem unable to reframe the debate.</p>
<p>None of them have anything specific to say about how they can make democracy relevant in an age of globalisation, though they all promise to “empower citizens”. So they accept that some form of austerity is the only cure for the deficit. They comply with the view that the welfare state has been made unsustainable by the workshy, that migrants are responsible for housing shortages and low pay, and that the only thing Labour can offer is some palliative relief to the inescapable realities of the world. The problem with these allegedly realistic stances is that they are not responsible and, more seriously, make Labour a redundant party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Labour Party HQ is on red alert. The election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader is seen as a real and dangerous prospect by the majority of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Countless party grandees have…Eunice Goes, Associate Professor of Politics, Richmond American International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/453392015-08-04T05:27:21Z2015-08-04T05:27:21ZWhy Corbyn is winning – and how Labour’s moderates can stop him<p>The Labour leadership election captured people’s attention when a <a href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ul79cmahd5/LabourLeadership_150721_day_one_W.pdf">YouGov poll</a> in late-July put Jeremy Corbyn in the lead. Now, he is the most popular candidate among trade unions and grassroots Labour activists, having been endorsed by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-tops-labour-leadership-vote-of-constituency-groups-10432254.html">162 Labour constituency parties</a> – ahead of Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham and Liz Kendall – and by six unions, including Labour’s two biggest affiliates, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33707321">Unite and Unison</a>. </p>
<p>Yet Corbyn’s lead is by no means unassailable. If one of the moderate candidates in the race is to deprive the veteran leftist of victory, he or she will need to address Labour’s current electoral fatalism and convince members that the party can still end up in government after the next election, provided that it remains united. </p>
<p>It’s useful to look at the Labour leadership race in the context of research on party leadership contests. One theory, developed by <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Choosing_a_Leader.html?id=Q3OFQgAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">Leonard Stark</a> and deployed by <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/electing-and-ejecting-party-leaders-in-britain-thomas-quinn/?isb=9780230219618">me and other</a> researchers, assumes that there is a hierarchy of selection criteria that guide the process of choosing a leader, and these criteria match parties’ three fundamental goals: internal unity, winning an election and implementing policy in government. </p>
<p>Selection criteria in leadership contests reflect these goals. If a party is divided, the successful candidate is usually the one who is “acceptable” to the broadest range of party opinion and can unite the party. If disunity isn’t a major problem, the strongest candidate on “electability” should win. If the candidates are indistinguishable on that, the choice will turn on “competence” – mainly in relation to running a government but also leading an opposition. </p>
<h2>Burnham the unifier, but Corbyn still on top</h2>
<p>Thanks to YouGov’s poll, we can put the theory to the test in the current Labour leadership contest. The poll asked electors eligible to vote in the one-member-one-vote ballot to state their principal reasons for supporting their preferred candidate. As the table below shows, clear differences are evident between the supporters of each candidate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89943/original/image-20150728-9853-15hj6l6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labour Electors’ Motives for Supporting Each Candidate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/94enqtd1fz/LabourLeadership_150721_day_two_W.pdf">YouGov/The Times. Notes: All figures are percentages except those in parenthesis, which indicate ranking of motives for supporters of four candidates. Supporters of each candidate are those respondents saying they would give their first-preference vote to that candidate. </a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Corbyn’s supporters – who constitute the largest group in the sample – were completely distinct from those of the other candidates. Barely any cited electability (winning in 2020) or acceptability (uniting the party) as reasons to support him. Corbyn appeals to those who want Labour to change direction completely, even if it means short-term disunity and lower electability.</p>
<p>Instead, on these figures, Burnham is the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/31/andy-burnham-interview">unity candidate</a> in the contest, and he also does well on electability and competence. Not far behind is Cooper, and she too appeals on all three selection criteria. In contrast, neither Kendall nor Corbyn is a unifier and both could <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/31/corbyn-supporters-risk-return-to-labour-splits-of-1980s-says-burnham">split their party</a>. Despite being strong on electability, Kendall’s Blairite politics are unacceptable not just to the far left but also to Labour’s soft-left mainstream. Meanwhile, Corbyn would be unacceptable to the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs. </p>
<h2>Fatalism and fresh faces</h2>
<p>So Burnham should be well-placed to win the leadership contest, but it is Corbyn who leads the race. The answer to why this is so lies in a combination of Labour’s new selection system and an incapacitating sense of electoral fatalism. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-political-parties-choose-their-leaders-41534">one-member-one-vote system</a> gives votes to party members, trade unionists who have been signed up by their unions as “affiliated supporters”, and “registered supporters” who have paid a £3 fee and confirmed their agreement with Labour’s values. A surge in membership of 68,000 since the 2015 election – a 35% increase – has brought in large numbers of left-wingers and worked <a href="https://theconversation.com/well-labour-this-is-what-happens-when-you-crowdsource-a-leadership-election-45177">strongly in Corbyn’s favour</a>.</p>
<p>This has combined together with a fatalism that has descended on the party after its May election defeat. Not only was the defeat unexpected but <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-labour-lose-and-where-next-for-the-party-41629">so was its scale</a>. There is a feeling among many inside and outside the party that it lost not only the 2015 election but also the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Add to that the sense that none of the contenders in the Labour leadership contest looks to be an obvious general election winner and it becomes understandable why electability appears such a low priority in the contest. Many Corbyn supporters may believe that their man cannot win the 2020 general election – but that neither can any of the other candidates. Voting for Corbyn then becomes a free hit: if Labour cannot become a party of government any time soon, why not make it a more effective party of opposition that takes on the Tories’ austerity agenda and unite it on that basis? </p>
<h2>Not over yet</h2>
<p>For Burnham or Cooper to defeat Corbyn, they would need to challenge this fatalism by arguing that the next election is not already lost. The Conservatives’ majority is only 12 seats. If Labour could win back just 30 of the 87 mainly marginal seats it lost to the Conservatives in 2010 (and largely failed to regain in 2015), not only would the Tories fall short of a majority in 2020, they would struggle to form a minority government. In an era when 80-90 seats are routinely won by smaller parties, including the Scottish National Party, hung parliaments are more likely than they were in the past. </p>
<p>Labour’s moderates would have to argue that it is important for the party to stay in the game in anticipation of another close election result, and not throw it away by choosing a leader who would split the party, lacks prime-ministerial credibility and has a narrow electoral appeal. It is easily forgotten that many Labour left-wingers – including Dennis Skinner – accepted this argument in 2010 when they put electability before ideology in supporting David Miliband.</p>
<p>Unity, electability and competence are the holy trinity of leadership contests. The polls suggest that Burnham is well-positioned on all three, with Cooper not far behind. To make it count, each must show the Labour party that they can unite it, probably on a moderate anti-austerity platform, and convince it that there is still all to play for at the next election. If they can do that, one of them could yet overhaul Corbyn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45339/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If anyone other than Jeremy Corbyn is to become the next Labour leader, they will have to address the party’s fatalism about 2020.Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/415662015-05-09T15:08:23Z2015-05-09T15:08:23ZAfter the deluge, contenders line up for party leadership contests<p>In the wake of the election result comes the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-political-parties-choose-their-leaders-41534">inevitable bloodletting</a> in the parties who fared badly at the hands of the electorate. By lunchtime on Friday the leaders of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and UKIP had all fallen on their swords. </p>
<p>The annihilation of the Liberal Democrats came as no surprise. Their demise started with the broken pledge over tuition fees. They were seen as a fairly unprincipled, power-hungry bunch who didn’t care whose 30 pieces of silver they took to get a share of government. The Liberal Democrats <a href="http://www.crosenstiel.webspace.virginmedia.com/ldelections/">traditionally used to do well in by-elections</a>, yet their candidates lost their deposits in almost every seat they contested since 2010. The writing was well and truly on the wall. </p>
<p>The party now faces at least a decade in the political wilderness. The SNP could learn a lesson from this. With only 35% of the Scottish vote, they too could lose seats in five years time if they fail to deliver anything of substance for Scotland.</p>
<p>The problem for the Liberal Democrats now is who can lead them back from the brink. All the likely leadership contenders were ousted on Thursday night. Gone are David Laws, Vince Cable, Danny Alexander, and Ed Davey. There is a choice between two experienced politicians; Tim Farron, former party president, and Norman Lamb, Nick Clegg’s former parliamentary private secretary.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81086/original/image-20150509-22785-1wl8bi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81086/original/image-20150509-22785-1wl8bi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81086/original/image-20150509-22785-1wl8bi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81086/original/image-20150509-22785-1wl8bi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81086/original/image-20150509-22785-1wl8bi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81086/original/image-20150509-22785-1wl8bi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81086/original/image-20150509-22785-1wl8bi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Is Tim Farron the man to rebuild the Lib Dems?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/libdems/15473191821/in/photolist-pzyrRL-pi5bB6-pzymVy-pi6gQ1-pzj9Rk-pi6mzb-pi6kR7-pi74j4-pzyp8j-pi6y6q-pi6Sh4-pxxQFb-pi71xH-defRbu-defQST-8DqnJS-kQkemq-kQk7TK-aqdf8s-aqdi7w-aqaDj6-aqdh89-aqdgcS-piAwPD-aqaCdx-aK5xS2-8DnhDe-8Dnh5e-rgbVt4-749xbH-74dtJu-6jrVkD-bpTa5J-5nxxsg-6jhiJA-66EXHR-5nxyoZ-9WcEZX-qZrw29-defPdx-8DnjVK-7KpgKo-7KpfZ9-7Kkkha-aqdekL-8LN6eT-4Nkawc-nZJzu-7KPtE8-5ntMgu">Liberal Democrats</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>For UKIP the only credible contender is Douglas Carswell, the single candidate winning a seat at Westminster. All the support gained in by-elections and in the European elections fell away in terms of seats, despite taking almost 13% of the national vote. Fate dealt them a cruel hand and it’s not surprising Nigel Farage is <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11593312/nigel-farage-attacks-electoral-system-after-election.html">calling for a change</a> to the voting system. </p>
<h2>Who’ll keep the red flag flying?</h2>
<p>The biggest leadership problem rests with Labour. For the last three years they have tried to court business and, at the same time, stay loyal to working people and the unions. Under Ed Miliband the “New Labour” values of Tony Blair were cast aside as the party shifted to the left of centre. Despite clear signs, Labour failed acknowledge they were not getting their message across to the electorate. The time has now come to decide what they stand for and whom they want to represent. Going forward Labour needs to find a clear sense of direction. Without that they cannot hope to rebuild a credible party</p>
<p>The writing was on the wall two years ago when Ed Miliband’s leadership was questioned. Instead of electing a more credible candidate to lead them into the election, the party insisted on continuing to back Ed. That was a disastrous decision and one they will regret for many years to come. At the end of the day no one would admit the party elected the wrong brother. There is something deep in the Labour psyche that puts loyalty above common sense. Ed Miliband’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/ed-stone-could-be-a-millstone-in-coalition-negotiations-41209">limestone manifesto</a> monument for Number 10, which later turned into a tombstone, was viewed by many as hubristic.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81085/original/image-20150509-22733-1dms0jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81085/original/image-20150509-22733-1dms0jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81085/original/image-20150509-22733-1dms0jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81085/original/image-20150509-22733-1dms0jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81085/original/image-20150509-22733-1dms0jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81085/original/image-20150509-22733-1dms0jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81085/original/image-20150509-22733-1dms0jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Should we be watching big brother?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/35952250@N02/4382454550/in/photolist-7Fge4d-by2YBA-bjTf5E-cJva7j-HyckF-dTtzzo-dn23LS-pk3ztm-gHNPMR-boWhXi-brqNin-e97c5X-gHPRep-e9cSY9-cJvhd5-8CRbtm-7FceJi-7zSQEn-cSjPph-dnR7Bf-6z9atm-6z9avs-6z54cn-6z98V1-6z98WC-6z54hv-6z54oM-6z54gt-6z549r-6z54dp-6z548t-6z98QA-6z54fv-br6UDP-qEzdt6-4w4omz-6rbeFj-6r74W4-6rbexQ-pvzn4i-onyH3f-m7wxgK-njVBBW-dZFrJy-oE4DNv-rQabQd-rwuyXQ-6z54bp-6z54kt-7ESFSa">Policy Network</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The party has a choice of potential candidates, but many are tainted by their unswerving pre-election allegiance to Ed Miliband. Chukka Umunna must be a prime candidate. He’s <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/blairite-group-progress-plotting-back-chuka-umunna-leadership-bid">seen as a bit of a Blairite</a> and it is questionable whether the party could make that U-turn. Yvette Cooper is ambitious – and must be a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/02/yvette-cooper-interview-labours-quiet-contender">serious contender</a>, if not the outright favourite. She is a seasoned politician who refused to be drawn on her aspirations on election night. </p>
<p>The shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt – another Blairite – has a reputation for <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2630549/Public-schoolboys-immoral-people-Ive-met-says-Labours-Tristram-Hunt.html">waging a class war on public schools</a>. As the son of a peer, Baron Hunt of Chesterton, the trade unions would no doubt find him a difficult candidate to support. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/08/andy-burnham-favourite-to-become-labour-leader-if-ed-miliband-goes">Andy Burnham is the pundits’ – and the bookies’ – favourite</a> to succeed Miliband. He was a contender in the 2010 leadership election and held a number of cabinet posts in Gordon Brown’s government. </p>
<p>Former minister, David Lammy, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/alan-johnson-labour-aspirational-voters-tony-blair">has also expressed an interest in the leadership</a>, while Alan Johnson – who served in several ministerial posts in the Blair and Brown administrations, has ruled himself out.</p>
<p>There are two outsiders. Ex-special forces soldier <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11363724/Meet-the-man-who-should-lead-Labour-after-Ed-Miliband.html">Dan Jarvis</a>, a relative newcomer, to politics is known to harbour leadership ambitions. The question is whether his New Labour tendencies would be held against him. A long-odds contender would be Liz Kendall. Her support for <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2922627/Ed-Miliband-challenged-NHS-privatisation-Liz-Kendall-shadow-health-minister-says-matters-works-using-private-sector-services.html">private providers in the health sector</a> might go against her with the unions, but their control over who leads Labour is much diminished. Last, but not least, let’s not discount the possibility that David Miliband could return to save the party. That would require a lot of Labour soul-searching.</p>
<p>The next few weeks will be as entertaining as those in the lead-up to the election. We will see infighting and machinations in all the parties, none more so than Labour. For the past five years it has had both a leadership crisis and an identity crisis. The latter must be resolved before the former can be addressed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alf Crossman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Three parties must now choose new leaders. Labour has a number of candidates jockeying for position.Alf Crossman, Senior Lecturer in Industrial Relations and HRM, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.