tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/military-1059/articlesMilitary – The Conversation2024-03-11T12:23:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243132024-03-11T12:23:33Z2024-03-11T12:23:33ZIs the National Guard a solution to school violence?<p>Every now and then, an elected official will suggest bringing in the National Guard to deal with violence that seems out of control.</p>
<p>A city council member in Washington suggested doing so in 2023 to <a href="https://www.fox5dc.com/news/dc-council-member-calls-for-national-guards-help-as-city-grapples-with-escalating-violence">combat the city’s rising violence</a>. So did a Pennsylvania representative concerned about <a href="https://www.pahouse.com/RepAmen/InTheNews/NewsRelease/?id=126748">violence in Philadelphia in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>In February 2024, officials in Massachusetts <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/20/metro/brockton-school-national-guard/">requested the National Guard</a> be deployed to a more unexpected location – <a href="https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/national-guard-final-ltr2024-version-6-1-1-240218-194343-65d2a61e2c19f.pdf">to a high school</a>.</p>
<p>Brockton High School has been struggling with <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/19/metro/brockton-city-councilors-request-national-guard-aid-deal-with-violence-high-school/">student fights, drug use and disrespect toward staff</a>. One school staffer said she was <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/02/22/scrambling-leadership-safety-concerns-and-a-looming-deficit-what-is-going-on-with-brockton-schools/">trampled by a crowd</a> rushing to see a fight. Many teachers <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/02/22/brockton-high-school-national-guard-request-in-national-limelight-shocking-levels-of-chaos/">call in sick to work each day</a>, leaving the school understaffed. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MTcxlxMAAAAJ&hl=en">researcher who studies school discipline</a>, I know Brockton’s situation is part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/educators-say-student-misconduct-has-increased-but-progressive-reforms-or-harsher-punishments-alone-wont-fix-the-problem-204666">national trend of principals and teachers</a> who have been struggling to deal with perceived <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/whatsnew/press_releases/07_06_2022.asp">increases</a> in <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/threats-of-student-violence-and-misbehavior-are-rising-many-school-leaders-report/2022/01">student misbehavior</a> since the pandemic. </p>
<p>A review of how the National Guard has been deployed to schools in the past shows the guard can provide service to schools in cases of exceptional need. Yet, doing so does not always end well.</p>
<h2>How have schools used the National Guard before?</h2>
<p>In 1957, the National Guard <a href="https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/stories/little-rock-nine#:%7E:text=On%20September%204%2C%20just%2024,ordered%20the%20National%20Guard%20removed.">blocked nine Black students’ attempts to desegregate Central High School in Little Rock, Arkansas</a>. While the governor claimed this was for safety, the National Guard effectively delayed desegregation of the school – as did the mobs of white individuals outside. Ironically, weeks later, the National Guard and the U.S. Army would enforce integration and the safety of the “Little Rock Nine” on <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/little-rock-school-desegregation">orders from President Dwight Eisenhower</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Soldiers with bayonets prod white men from a mob to leave the area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579072/original/file-20240301-30-49isva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579072/original/file-20240301-30-49isva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579072/original/file-20240301-30-49isva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579072/original/file-20240301-30-49isva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579072/original/file-20240301-30-49isva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579072/original/file-20240301-30-49isva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579072/original/file-20240301-30-49isva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three men from the mob around Little Rock’s Central High School are driven from the area at bayonet-point by soldiers of the 101st Airborne Division on Sept. 25, 1957. The presence of the troops permitted the nine Black students to enter the school with only minor background incidents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/three-men-from-the-mob-around-little-rocks-central-high-news-photo/514880574?adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>One of the most tragic cases of the National Guard in an educational setting came in 1970 at Kent State University. The <a href="https://www.kent.edu/may-4-historical-accuracy">National Guard was brought to campus</a> to respond to protests over American involvement in the Vietnam War. The guardsmen fatally shot four students. </p>
<p>In 2012, then-Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat from California, <a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2012-12-19/sandy-hook-shooting-sen-boxer-proposes-using-national-guard-school-security">proposed funding</a> to use the National Guard to provide school security in the wake of the Sandy Hook school shooting. The bill <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/senate-bill/3692?s=1&r=22">was not passed</a>.</p>
<p>More recently, the National Guard <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/states-call-in-the-national-guard-to-mitigate-school-staffing-shortages#:%7E:text=For%20two%20years%2C%20the%20pandemic,to%20fill%20in%20the%20gaps.">filled teacher shortages</a> in New Mexico’s K-12 schools during the quarantines and sickness of the pandemic. While the idea did not catch on nationally, teachers and school personnel in New Mexico generally reported <a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/fulfilling-the-mission-more-than-70-new-mexico-national-guard-members-step-in-as-substitute-teachers-to-keep-schools-open/">positive experiences</a>. </p>
<h2>Can the National Guard address school discipline?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://nationalguard.com/guard-history">National Guard’s mission</a> includes responding to domestic emergencies. Members of the guard are part-time service members who maintain civilian lives. Some are students themselves in colleges and universities. Does this mission and training position the National Guard to respond to incidents of student misbehavior and school violence? </p>
<p>On the one hand, New Mexico’s pandemic experience shows the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/substitute-teachers-national-guard-new-mexico.html">National Guard could be a stopgap to staffing shortages in unusual circumstances</a>. Similarly, the guards’ eventual role in ensuring student safety <a href="https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/stories/little-rock-nine#:%7E:text=On%20September%204%2C%20just%2024,ordered%20the%20National%20Guard%20removed.">during school desegregation</a> in Arkansas demonstrates their potential to address exceptional cases in schools, such as racially motivated mob violence. And, of course, many schools have had military personnel teaching and mentoring through <a href="https://www.usarmyjrotc.com/">Junior ROTC programs</a> for years. </p>
<p>Those seeking to bring the National Guard to Brockton High School <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/19/metro/brockton-city-councilors-request-national-guard-aid-deal-with-violence-high-school/">have made similar arguments</a>. They note that staffing shortages have contributed to behavior problems.</p>
<p>One school <a href="https://www.wcvb.com/article/call-for-national-guard-help-brockton-high-school-security/46855550">board member stated</a>: “I know that the first thought that comes to mind when you hear ‘National Guard’ is uniform and arms, and that’s not the case. They’re people like us. They’re educated. They’re trained, and we just need their assistance right now. … We need more staff to support our staff and help the students learn (and) have a safe environment.”</p>
<p>Yet, there are reasons to question whether calls for the National Guard are the best way to address school misconduct and behavior. First, the National Guard is a temporary measure that does little to address the <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/302346.pdf">underlying causes of student misbehavior and school violence</a>. </p>
<p>Research has shown that students <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/01623737026003237">benefit from effective teaching</a>, meaningful and sustained <a href="https://www.nasbe.org/why-school-climate-matters-and-what-can-be-done-to-improve-it/#:%7E:text=A%20positive%20school%20climate%E2%80%94where,of%20poverty%20on%20academic%20achievement.">relationships with school personnel</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2372966X.2021.1926321">positive school environments</a>. Such educative and supportive environments have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2372966X.2021.1926321">linked to safer schools</a>. National Guard members are not trained as educators or counselors and, as a temporary measure, would not remain in the school to establish durable relationships with students. </p>
<p>What is more, a military presence – particularly if uniformed or armed – may make students feel less welcome at school or escalate situations. </p>
<p>Schools have already seen an increase in militarization. For example, school police departments have gone so far as to acquire <a href="https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-schools-weapons-20140917-story.html">grenade launchers and mine-resistant armored vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>Research has found that school police make students more likely to <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/302346.pdf">be suspended</a> and to be <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/pam.21954">arrested</a>. Similarly, while a National Guard presence may address misbehavior temporarily, their presence could similarly result in students experiencing punitive or exclusionary responses to behavior. </p>
<h2>Students deserve a solution other than the guard</h2>
<p>School violence and disruptions are serious problems <a href="https://fordhaminstitute.org/national/commentary/when-students-feel-unsafe-absenteeism-grows">that can harm students</a>. Unfortunately, schools and educators have increasingly <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520284203/the-real-school-safety-problem#:%7E:text=About%20the%20Book,-Schools%20across%20the&text=Evidence%20shows%20that%20current%20school,arrests%2C%20incarceration%2C%20and%20unemployment.">viewed student misbehavior as a problem</a> to be dealt with through suspensions and police involvement. </p>
<p>A number of people – from the NAACP to the local mayor and other members of the school board – <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/20/metro/brockton-school-national-guard/">have criticized</a> Brockton’s request for the National Guard. Governor Maura Healey has said she will <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/national-guard-brockton-high-school-security-maura-healey/">not deploy the guard</a> to the school. </p>
<p>However, the case of Brockton High School points to real needs. Educators there, like in other schools nationally, are <a href="https://www.masslive.com/news/2024/02/heres-what-brockton-high-school-educators-say-they-have-been-dealing-with.html">facing a tough situation and perceive a lack of support</a> and resources.</p>
<p>Many schools need more teachers and staff. Students need access to mentors and counselors. With these resources, schools can better ensure educators are able to do their jobs without military intervention.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>F. Chris Curran has received funding from the US Department of Justice, the Bureau of Justice Assistance, and the American Civil Liberties Union for work on school safety and discipline.</span></em></p>School board members in one Massachusetts district have called for the National Guard to address student misbehavior. Does their request have merit? A school discipline expert weighs in.F. Chris Curran, Associate Professor of Educational Leadership and Policy, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247122024-03-07T13:03:42Z2024-03-07T13:03:42ZWhy Israel’s economy is resilient in spite of the war<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580093/original/file-20240306-18-g3idi5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=648%2C0%2C2356%2C2005&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/back-shot-several-soldiers-israel-army-1423050641">Melnikov Dmitriy/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Israel’s war in Gaza and more limited conflict with Hezbollah on its northern border with Lebanon is taking a toll on the Israeli economy. </p>
<p>In the final quarter of 2023, Israel’s gross domestic product (GDP) – a measure of a country’s economic health – <a href="https://www.cbs.gov.il/en/publications/Pages/2024/Monthly-Bulletin-of-Statistics-February-2024.aspx">shrank by almost 20%</a>. Consumption dropped by 27% and investment by 70%.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that these are annualised figures relative to the same period a year ago. The 5.2% drop in GDP from the third quarter was substantial, but it is likely to be a temporary setback unless the war with Hezbollah intensifies.</p>
<p>The outbreak of war disrupted <a href="https://www.boi.org.il/en/communication-and-publications/press-releases/a09-11-23/">around 18%</a> of Israel’s workforce. In October, 250,000 civilians fled or were evacuated from border communities. Meanwhile, around 4% of the workforce – some 300,000 people – were called up as reservists as Israel mobilised for its military offensive.</p>
<p>Over the next few years, the war will cost Israel an estimated <a href="https://boi.org.il/media/ruuby3mw/%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%92%D7%AA-%D7%94%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%99%D7%93-%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%95%D7%A2%D7%93%D7%AA-%D7%94%D7%9B%D7%A1%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%9D-22124.pdf">255 billion shekels</a> (£56.6 billion) due to reduced economic activity and increased expenses. But the <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Israels-ratings-to-A2-changes-outlook-to-negative-Rating-Action--PR_484801">projected rise</a> in national debt from 60% to 67% of GDP by 2025 is manageable, as is the plan to raise annual military spending from 4% of GDP to <a href="https://boi.org.il/media/ruuby3mw/%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%92%D7%AA-%D7%94%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%99%D7%93-%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%95%D7%A2%D7%93%D7%AA-%D7%94%D7%9B%D7%A1%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%9D-22124.pdf">6%</a> or <a href="https://www.calcalist.co.il/local_news/article/s15g7mett">7%</a> by the end of the decade. </p>
<p>Israel entered the war with a relatively low national debt and foreign currency reserves equivalent to about 40% of annual GDP. Its population is young and still growing, and <a href="https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2022/def20_1857/h_print.pdf">data</a> reveals that Israel has surpassed current military spending levels before. Between 1967 and 1972, military spending averaged 20.3% of GDP, rising to 28.7% from 1973 to 1975 before stabilising at 20.8% between 1976 and 1985.</p>
<p>The years following the Yom Kippur war in 1973 and through the first Lebanon war (1982–85) are often referred to as “lost years” for Israel’s economy. Per-capita GDP growth averaged <a href="https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/?lang=en">4.8%</a> in the 12 years before this period; over the following 12 years it dropped to just 0.8%. Inflation gradually rose, <a href="https://www.globes.co.il/finance/indexprice/inflation.asp?Lang=HE">peaking at 445%</a> during 1984.</p>
<p>So the question is not if Israel can weather the current storm, but whether the burden of higher military spending will be offset by budget cuts elsewhere to ensure economic growth resumes and public debt returns to a sustainable trajectory. </p>
<p>So far, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, and other members of his coalition have resisted <a href="https://economists-for-israeli-democracy.com/">advice</a> from economists to change the government’s spending priorities. They have done so for fear of upsetting the small but influential constituencies whose votes keep them in power.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Benjamin Netanyahu speaking in front of an Israel flag with his right hand outstretched." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580092/original/file-20240306-20-xvroza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580092/original/file-20240306-20-xvroza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580092/original/file-20240306-20-xvroza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580092/original/file-20240306-20-xvroza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580092/original/file-20240306-20-xvroza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580092/original/file-20240306-20-xvroza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580092/original/file-20240306-20-xvroza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benjamin Netanyahu speaking at a meeting in Berlin, Germany, in March 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/berlin-germany-20230316-prime-minister-benjamin-2276731307">photocosmos1/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Political opportunism</h2>
<p>Netanyahu has demonstrated a good grasp of market economics. As finance minister between 2003 and 2005, Netanyahu implemented <a href="https://www.nevo.co.il/FilesFolderPermalink.aspx?b=books&r=%D7%9B%D7%AA%D7%91%D7%99+%D7%A2%D7%AA%5C%D7%9B%D7%AA%D7%91%D7%99+%D7%A2%D7%AA%5C%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%98+%D7%94%D7%A2%D7%91%D7%95%D7%93%D7%94%5C%D7%9B%D7%A8%D7%9A+%D7%99">sweeping reforms</a> that lowered tax rates, <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/543634">privatised state companies</a> and raised the state pension age. He also used his tenure to curtail the country’s bloated benefits system and introduce requirements for job training.</p>
<p>Yet since the start of Netanyahu’s second term as prime minister in 2009 (the first was 1996–99), many of these reforms have been <a href="https://main.knesset.gov.il/mk/government/documents/addCoalition2009_2.pdf">scaled back or eliminated</a>, particularly the cuts to the benefits system. This benefits system disproportionately advantages the ultra-Orthodox Haredi community, whose parties form part of Netanyahu’s governing coalition.</p>
<p>Netanyahu was once again elected as prime minister in November 2022. Though a proponent of a limited role for the state, his new government included a record 34 different ministries. This was to satisfy the appetite for patronage and ministerial salaries among the different coalition partners as well as factions within his own Likud party. </p>
<p>To secure the continued support of ultra-Orthodox parties he also promised unprecedented <a href="https://www.idi.org.il/articles/49642">levels of funding</a> for religious schools and seminaries. In seminaries, grown men spend their lives studying religious texts at the public’s expense and are exempt from military service. Despite the need to fund the war and for more young men in uniform, Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, have <a href="https://www.calcalist.co.il/local_news/article/bkerxsacp">resisted</a> nearly all suggestions that these budget items be reduced.</p>
<p>Here we have a case study where political opportunism easily defeats ideology. We know what Netanyahu believes and what he understands about good economic policy, and we can isolate these from what he is willing to do to remain in office. </p>
<p>Will he choose to defray some of the costs the war will impose on the budget by eliminating wasteful spending on useless ministries? Or will he introduce policies that grow the economy by incentivising higher labour-force participation among the ultra-Orthodox community? The plan for the moment is to borrow more.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two ultra-Orthodox men holding signs written in hebrew." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580090/original/file-20240306-18-4nzv1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580090/original/file-20240306-18-4nzv1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580090/original/file-20240306-18-4nzv1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580090/original/file-20240306-18-4nzv1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580090/original/file-20240306-18-4nzv1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580090/original/file-20240306-18-4nzv1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580090/original/file-20240306-18-4nzv1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ultra-Orthodox men protesting for the release of a religious youth who was jailed for refusing to serve in the military in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/safed-israel-oct-19-2017-ultra-1026922030">David Cohen 156/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Strong civil society</h2>
<p>We may also overestimate the role politicians and governments play in ensuring a country’s success. Since its founding in 1948, Israel’s electoral system of proportional representation has yielded weak, unstable coalitions.</p>
<p>Historically, the Likud party has strongly supported the independence of the country’s judiciary. But after the last election, Netanyahu’s government introduced <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65086871">new legislation</a> that, among other things, would have given the Knesset (parliament) the power to override Supreme Court decisions with a simple majority vote. </p>
<p>Had these changes been implemented they would have further magnified the worst properties of the country’s dysfunctional (unwritten) constitution. People do not invest money in countries where court decisions can be overturned by politicians and property rights are not secure.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the weaknesses of its government institutions, Israel has absorbed millions of poor refugees from every corner of the Earth, has fought back when attacked and has defeated far larger neighbours over its 75-year history. It has done so all while transforming itself from an impoverished backwater to a first-world economy and a centre of high-tech innovation. </p>
<p>In the first nine months of 2023, hundreds of thousands of Israelis <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/12/israel-protests-judicial-curbs-supreme-court-challenge">demonstrated</a> in the streets to defend the rule of law and the independence of the country’s judiciary. Many of those same people rushed to join their reserve units on October 7 to defend the country’s borders. Others, acting without any government direction, <a href="https://www.ynetnews.com/magazine/article/bjd1lrmlp">organised relief</a> for the survivors and displaced while ministers dithered or disappeared from view.</p>
<p>Countries with strong civil societies and highly engaged populations survive and even prosper not because of their political leaders, but despite them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Ben-Gad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>War is taking a toll on Israel’s economy.Michael Ben-Gad, Professor of Economics, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243772024-02-28T13:16:42Z2024-02-28T13:16:42ZRed Sea politics: why Turkey is helping Somalia defend its waters<p><em>Somalia and Turkey recently announced that they would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-provide-maritime-security-support-somalia-official-2024-02-22/#:%7E:text=The%20agreement%20aims%20to%20enhance,against%20terrorism%2C%22%20he%20said.">expand</a> the terms of a defence agreement first signed on <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/turkiye-somalia-sign-agreement-on-defense-economic-cooperation/3132095">8 February 2024</a> to include the maritime sector. This came as tensions rose between Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia. Ethiopia is seeking access to the Red Sea <a href="https://theconversation.com/somaliland-ethiopia-port-deal-international-opposition-flags-complex-red-sea-politics-221131">through Somaliland</a>, a breakaway state of Somalia. Federico Donelli, an international relations professor <a href="https://scholar.google.com.tr/citations?hl=it&user=lH6U_44AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">whose research</a> covers Red Sea security and politics, puts this defence agreement into context.</em></p>
<h2>What’s the scope of the relationship between Turkey and Somalia?</h2>
<p>Turkey’s entry into Somalia in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/8/19/turkish-pm-visits-famine-hit-somalia">2011</a> started out as a humanitarian partnership but soon turned into a strategic one. Its support since has been economic and infrastructural and has increasingly included the military. </p>
<p>The Turkish government saw Somalia’s <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2872980">failed statehood</a> and the lack of other major international stakeholders as an opportunity to increase its popularity <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/turkey-in-africa-9780755636976/">across Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Turkey aimed to: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>gain international visibility</p></li>
<li><p>test its ability to intervene in conflict and post-conflict scenarios</p></li>
<li><p>increase market diversification into east Africa </p></li>
<li><p>cultivate its image as a benevolent Muslim middle power by promoting Islamic solidarity. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Several Turkish faith-based associations and NGOs already active in Africa became <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/189390/turkish-aid-agencies-in-somalia.pdf">directly involved</a> in development and relief projects. Major national brands, such as <a href="https://www.talpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/AID-CAMPAIGN-FOR-SOMALIA.pdf">Turkish Airlines</a>, promoted campaigns to raise funds for Somalia. </p>
<p>Within a few years, Turkey’s involvement in Somalia was portrayed by the government and perceived by the Turkish public as a domestic issue. </p>
<p>Turkey’s early efforts to bring Somalia back to the table of the international community were successful. </p>
<p>With the reopening of Mogadishu’s port and airport in <a href="https://jp.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0SA47N/">2014</a>, both managed by Turkish companies, the economic situation in Somalia improved compared to the previous decade. Turkish political elites began to present their involvement in Somalia as a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-abstract/97/4/1105/6307685?redirectedFrom=fulltext">success story</a>. This is despite some remaining critical problems, including failing to root out the terrorist organisation <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-drives-al-shabaab-in-somalia-foreign-forces-out-sharia-law-in-and-overthrow-the-government-191366">Al-Shabaab</a>. </p>
<p>Turkey took responsibility for training the Somali National Army in partnership with other stakeholders, including the European Union and the United States. It <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1C50J9/#:%7E:text=MOGADISHU%2FANKARA%20(Reuters)%20%2D,a%20presence%20in%20East%20Africa.">opened a military base</a> in Mogadishu in 2017. The base trains one of the army’s elite units, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/somalia-military-rebuilding-shows-signs-of-improvement/6856894.html">the Gorgor Brigades</a>, and serves as a Turkish military outpost in the region. </p>
<p>Al-Shabaab’s persistence has <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315557083-11/hybrid-actor-horn-africa-federico-donelli?context=ubx&refId=88b5c3af-4bc2-4a09-af0b-c8d3df34534e">convinced Turkey</a> that it needs to provide more active military support for Somalia’s development. Ankara also wants to protect its economic and political investments in Somalia. </p>
<p>Finally, behind the Turkish deal with Somalia is the politics around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato). </p>
<p>Over the past 12 months, Turkey has <a href="https://www.africaintelligence.com/north-africa/2023/10/20/washington-accepts-continuing-turkish-military-presence-in-libya,110078869-art">moved closer</a> to the United States. It’s positioned itself as an effective ally in Africa to counteract the negative effects of <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/rest-of-africa/last-french-troops-bow-out-of-africa-s-sahel-4472268">France’s withdrawal</a> – such as the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/28/russia-s-growing-footprint-in-africa-s-sahel-region-pub-89135">increasing influence of Russia</a>. Turkey’s commitment to Somalia follows its <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.tr/bilateral-relations-between-turkiye-and-libya.en.mfa">efforts in Libya</a>. </p>
<p>In both cases, Turkey has proven willing to take on the security burden that other <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm">Nato members</a>, particularly Italy, have refused to meet. </p>
<p>Turkey’s engagement in Somalia is, therefore, part of a broader foreign policy strategy to gain more autonomy in global politics. Increased relevance within Nato would help achieve this. </p>
<h2>What’s the context of the maritime defence pact between Turkey and Somalia?</h2>
<p>Turkey and Somalia began working on an agreement between November 2023 and January 2024. Turkey agreed to <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/somalia-authorises-turkey-defend-its-sea-waters-deal">train and equip</a> Somalia’s naval force and help patrol the country’s 3,333km coastline. </p>
<p>Turkey’s defence sector has had increasing influence in Ankara’s foreign policy decisions. Turkey sees itself as an exporter of defence industry products, and as a partner in training special forces and police. African countries are among the main targets for the Turkish defence sector. </p>
<p>Somalia, therefore, provides an opportunity to spread more Turkish production and items.</p>
<p>In 2022, Turkey became, along with the United States, the main backer of a <a href="https://ctc.westpoint.edu/can-somalias-new-offensive-defeat-al-shabaab/">new offensive against Al-Shabaab</a>. It provided logistical support to the Gorgor forces and air cover to the national army. This cooperation has led to the 10-year defence agreement, including maritime security, signed in February 2024. </p>
<p>Turkey and Somalia have been working on the accord for some time, but recent regional events have undoubtedly affected the announcement’s timing. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://theconversation.com/somaliland-ethiopia-port-deal-international-opposition-flags-complex-red-sea-politics-221131">Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum of understanding</a> in January 2024 is one such event. Turkey has good relations with Somaliland, but considers the territorial integrity of Somalia to be essential for its stability. </p>
<p>At the same time, the Horn of Africa’s political dynamics are shifting. <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/oped/comment/somalia-ethiopia-tensions-only-serve-to-embolden-al-shabaab-4512492">Mounting tensions</a> between Ethiopia and Somalia have led to new coalitions involving regional and extra-regional players. </p>
<p>It’s important not to oversimplify, but two factions are emerging. On one side are Ethiopia, Somaliland and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). On the other are Somalia, Egypt, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia. </p>
<p>At first, Turkey sought to mediate between the factions to defuse tensions. </p>
<p>But its agreement with Somalia reduces Turkey’s room for manoeuvre. Although the relationship with Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed appears to be unaffected, there could be negative repercussions, especially for the many <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between-turkiye-and-ethiopia.en.mfa#:%7E:text=While%20the%20number%20of%20Turkish,with%20approximately%20200%20Turkish%20companies.">Turkish economic interests in Ethiopia</a>.</p>
<h2>What is the UAE factor?</h2>
<p>When it comes to the Horn of Africa, the UAE plays a pivotal role. Turkey and Somalia each have a relationship with the Emirates. </p>
<p>From 2014 to 2020, Turkey engaged in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09592318.2021.1976573?src=recsys">bitter rivalry</a> with the Emirates in the wider Red Sea area. This was driven by the two countries’ different visions for the region’s future. </p>
<p>Relations improved from 2020. During the 2020-2022 war in Tigray, <a href="https://www.newarab.com/analysis/why-rival-powers-are-backing-ethiopias-government">both Turkey and the UAE supported the Ethiopian government</a>. </p>
<p>But recent developments in the Horn of Africa, such as the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/1/4/ambiguous-ethiopia-port-deal-fuels-uncertainty-over-somaliland-statehood">UAE-backed Ethiopia-Somaliland deal</a>, threaten to create new friction between Turkey and the Emirates. Turkey doesn’t have the political will or material capacity to sustain this. In the past three years, the UAE has supported the Turkish economy with <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1976546/middle-east">direct investment</a>, changing the balance of the relationship. </p>
<p>The situation is similar for Somalia. </p>
<p>From a commercial and security perspective, the Emirates is important in Somalia. The UAE <a href="https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/after-djibouti-failure-dp-world-heads-up-somalia-for-controversial-port-projects">manages two key Somali ports</a> – Berbera and Bosaso. It’s also moving to take over Kismayo. And the Emirates has been one of Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/new-president-somalia-new-opportunity-reconciliation">principal backers</a>. It would be risky for the Somali president to break ties with Abu Dhabi.</p>
<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>There is still much uncertainty about how the Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum of understanding and the Turkey-Somalia defence cooperation agreements will be put into practice. What’s clear is that both the UAE and Turkey are becoming more active and influential in the region. And that African dynamics within and between states are closely intertwined with regional and global trends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224377/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Federico Donelli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The persistence of the Al-Shabaab terror group has convinced Turkey it needs to provide more active military support in Somalia.Federico Donelli, Assistant Professor of International Relations, University of TriesteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239352024-02-19T18:27:05Z2024-02-19T18:27:05ZRussia’s space weapon: anti-satellite systems are indiscriminate, posing a risk to everyone’s spacecraft<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576566/original/file-20240219-22-dvgtci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C22%2C7657%2C5725&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/telecommunication-satellite-providing-global-internet-network-2375569273">NicoElNino / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a week where national security has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/12/trump-nato-russia-comments-republicans">taken centre stage in Washington</a>, the White House confirmed on Thursday that it had evidence that Russia was developing a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68309496">space-based nuclear anti satellite weapon</a>.</p>
<p>John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/15/russia-anti-satellite-weapon-space-white-house">informed reporters</a> that the White House believe Russia’s programme to be “troubling”, despite “no immediate threat to anyone’s safety”. </p>
<p>The problem is that, depending on what type of weapon this is, the consequences of using it could be indiscriminate – threatening everyone’s satellites and causing a breakdown of the vital services that come from space infrastructure.</p>
<p>The White House revelations come after House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike
Turner urged the administration, late on Wednesday, to declassify information
concerning what he called a “serious national security threat”. There were then several days <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/republican-warns-of-national-security-threat-amid-fears-of-russian-space-weapon-13071884">of comments</a> and speculation about Russia <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/u-s-officials-dont-freak-out-about-russian-nukes-in-space.html">either being ready to launch a nuclear weapon into space</a>, or deploying an anti-satellite <a href="https://spacenews.com/white-house-confirms-it-has-intelligence-on-russians-anti-satellite-weapon-but-says-no-immediate-threat/">weapon powered by nuclear energy</a>.</p>
<p>Kirby did not fully outline the nature of the threat, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/national-security-threat-update-russia-b2497015.html">but he added</a> that officials believed the weapons system was not an “active capability” and had not been deployed. To reassure those listening, Kirby said that the weapon was not one that could be used to cause physical destruction on Earth but that the White House was monitoring Russian activity and would “continue to take it very seriously”.</p>
<p>During a visit to Albania on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the news and stated that he expected to have more to say soon, adding that the Biden administration was “also conferring with allies and partners on the issue”.</p>
<p>While discussing the matter with Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar and Chinese
Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the <a href="https://securityconference.org/en/">Munich Security Conference</a>, Blinken is <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/joe-biden-ap-russia-antony-blinken-washington-b2497667.html">reported</a> to have “emphasised that the pursuit of this capability should be a matter of concern”.</p>
<h2>Denials from Russia</h2>
<p>Moscow immediately denied the existence of such a programme and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-dismisses-us-warning-about-russian-nuclear-capability-space-2024-02-15/">stated</a> that it was a “malicious fabrication” created by the Biden administration to pressurise Congress into passing the USD$97bn (£77bn) <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/12/politics/senate-foreign-aid-bill-ukraine/index.html">foreign aid bill</a>, $60bn of which was destined for Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-dismisses-us-warning-about-russian-nuclear-capability-space-2024-02-15/">told reporters</a>: “It is obvious that the White House is trying, by hook or by crook, to encourage Congress to vote on a bill to allocate money; this is obvious”. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/16/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-reported-death-of-aleksey-navalny/">At a press conference</a> on the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Joe Biden stated that there was “no nuclear threat to the people of America or anywhere else in the world with what Russia is doing at the moment”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Orbital debris" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576569/original/file-20240219-20-pya8br.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576569/original/file-20240219-20-pya8br.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576569/original/file-20240219-20-pya8br.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576569/original/file-20240219-20-pya8br.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576569/original/file-20240219-20-pya8br.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576569/original/file-20240219-20-pya8br.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576569/original/file-20240219-20-pya8br.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Space is already crowded with human-made objects and anti-satellite weapons can make the situation much worse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery/">NASA ODPO</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The president added that there was “no evidence that they have made a decision to go forward with doing anything in space either”. If Moscow did decide to go ahead with the programme it would be contrary to the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/STSPACE11E.pdf">Outer Space Treaty</a> which 130 countries have signed onto, including Russia.</p>
<p>The treaty prohibits “nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass
destruction” in orbit or stationing weapons in outer space “in any other manner”.
Anti-satellite weapons are nothing new. <a href="https://swfound.org/media/9550/chinese_asat_fact_sheet_updated_2012.pdf">China launched a
weapon</a> to destroy a non-operational weather satellite in January 2007. </p>
<p>While the temptation to launch a nuclear strike in space may seem alluring to nations looking to challenge US dominance in the domain, such actions come at huge risk. It is not necessarily the destruction of objects in space from Earth that should be the primary concern when it comes to anti-satellite weapons more generally, but the effect they have in space.</p>
<h2>Mass of debris</h2>
<p>The destruction of any celestial object creates a mass of debris varying in size from a few millimetres to several centimetres. Currently, there are hundreds of millions of tracked pieces of space debris orbiting <a href="https://earth.org/space-junk-what-is-it-what-can-we-do-about-it/">the Earth</a>.</p>
<p>The speed at which this space debris is travelling makes it a major hazard to other satellites and entities in space such as the International Space Station (ISS), which has to change course in order to avoid collisions which can cause widespread damage. The ISS has had to <a href="https://www.space.com/international-space-station-space-debris-spacex-dragon-spacecraft-arrival">changed course 32 times since 1999</a>.</p>
<p>Once space debris has been created, it is almost impossible to control the trajectory after the strike or the orbital pattern it will take around the Earth. This can put a nation’s space assets – such as its satellites – at the same risk of destruction as that of an adversary. This situation has been described in similar terms to that applied to nuclear weapons on Earth, <a href="https://www.guspaceinitiative.org/contentmaster/mutually-assured-destruction-in-low-earth-orbit">in terms of mutually assured destruction</a>.</p>
<p>If a nuclear strike were to be conducted by a nation in space with the intention of destroying satellites and also to demonstrate both an ability and willingness to use nuclear weapons more generally, it would be next to impossible to control the consequences of such an action.</p>
<p>It would be fairly certain that such a strike would have the intended effect in reducing the space capabilities of an opponent. For example, an attack on US assets could disable the satellite-based global positioning system (GPS) that is relied on by western nations. </p>
<p>There is, however, the very real possibility that it would also destroy the space assets of the nation behind the attack, as well as allies and friends of that same nation. This could lead to tensions being raised and lead to a loss of that country’s support.</p>
<p>The inability to control the effects of attacks in space, whether they originate from a weapon in space or on the Earth, makes such actions subject to a great degree of consideration and debate in all nations that are active in the space domain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223935/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Destroying satellites in space can lead to cascades that are hard to predict.Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of PortsmouthDafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229582024-02-13T12:45:09Z2024-02-13T12:45:09ZChina’s chip industry is gaining momentum – it could alter the global economic and security landscape<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574634/original/file-20240209-20-qhpgx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4977%2C3337&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cropped-image-engineer-showing-computer-microchip-151125485">Dragon Images/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s national champions for computer chip – or semiconductor – design and manufacturing, HiSilicon and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), are making waves in Washington. </p>
<p>SMIC was long considered a laggard. Despite being the recipient of billions of dollars from the Chinese government since its founding in 2000, it remained far from the technological frontier. But that perception — and the self-assurance it gave the US — is changing. </p>
<p>In August 2023, Huawei launched its high-end Huawei Mate 60 smartphone. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (an American think tank based in Washington DC), the launch <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/327414d2-fe13-438e-9767-333cdb94c7e1">“surprised the US”</a> as the chip powering it showed that Chinese self-sufficiency in HiSilicon’s semiconductor design and SMIC’s manufacturing capabilities were catching up at an alarming pace.</p>
<p>More recent news that Huawei and SMIC are scheming to mass-produce so-called 5-nanometre processor chips in <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b5e0dba3-689f-4d0e-88f6-673ff4452977">new Shanghai production facilities</a> has only stoked further fears about leaps in their next-generation prowess. These chips remain a generation behind the current cutting-edge ones, but they show that China’s move to create more advanced chips is well on track, despite US export controls.</p>
<p>The US has long managed to maintain its clear position as the frontrunner in chip design, and has ensured it was close allies who were supplying the manufacturing of cutting-edge chips. But now it faces formidable competition from China, who’s technological advance carries profound economic, geopolitical and security implications.</p>
<h2>Semiconductors are a big business</h2>
<p>For decades, chipmakers have sought to make ever more compact products. Smaller transistors result in lower energy consumption and faster processing speeds, so massively improve the performance of a microchip. </p>
<p>Moore’s Law — the expectation that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years — has remained valid in chips designed in the Netherlands and the US, and manufactured in Korea and Taiwan. Chinese technology has therefore remained years behind. While the world’s frontier has moved to 3-nanometre chips, Huawei’s <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/what-does-huaweis-homemade-chip-really-mean-for-chinas-semiconductor-industry/">homemade chip</a> is at 7 nanometres. </p>
<p>Maintaining this distance has been important for economic and security reasons. Semiconductors are the backbone of the modern economy. They are critical to telecommunications, defence and artificial intelligence.</p>
<p>The US push for <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2021/05/19/geopolitics-and-the-push-for-made-in-the-usa-semiconductors/">“made in the USA”</a> semiconductors has to do with this systemic importance. Chip shortages <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/how-the-world-went-from-a-semiconductor-shortage-to-a-major-glut.html">wreak havoc</a> on global production since they power so many of the products that define contemporary life. </p>
<p>Today’s military prowess even directly relies on chips. In fact, according to the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/semiconductors-and-national-defense-what-are-stakes">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>, “all major US defence systems and platforms rely on semiconductors.” </p>
<p>The prospect of relying on Chinese-made chips — and the backdoors, Trojan horses and control over supply that would pose — are unacceptable to Washington and its allies.</p>
<h2>Stifling China’s chip industry</h2>
<p>Since the 1980s, the US has helped establish and maintain a distribution of chip manufacturing that is dominated by South Korea and Taiwan. But the US has recently sought to safeguard its technological supremacy and independence by bolstering its <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/how-the-chips-act-is-aiming-to-restore-a-us-lead-in-semiconductors.html">own manufacturing ability</a>.</p>
<p>Through large-scale <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china/">industrial policy</a>, billions of dollars are being poured into US chip manufacturing facilities, including a multi-billion dollar <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/phoenix-microchip-plant-biden-union-tsmc">plant in Arizona</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large factory under construction on a clear, sunny day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574637/original/file-20240209-16-wo3zz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574637/original/file-20240209-16-wo3zz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574637/original/file-20240209-16-wo3zz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574637/original/file-20240209-16-wo3zz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574637/original/file-20240209-16-wo3zz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574637/original/file-20240209-16-wo3zz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574637/original/file-20240209-16-wo3zz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker, building an advanced semiconductor factory in the US state of Arizona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/phoenix-arizona-march-08-2023-ongoing-2272665185">Around the World Photos/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The second major tack is exclusion. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has subjected <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-at-stake-in-trumps-war-on-huawei-control-of-the-global-computer-chip-industry-124079">numerous investment and acquisition deals</a> to review, ultimately even blocking some in the name of US national security. This includes the high-profile case of <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2018/03/08/cfius-intervenes-in-broadcoms-attempt-to-buy-qualcomm">Broadcom’s attempt to buy Qualcomm</a> in 2018 due to its China links.</p>
<p>In 2023, the US government issued an <a href="https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/us-government-issues-executive-order-restricting-us-outbound-investment-in-advanced-technologies-involving-countries-of-concern-china/">executive order</a> inhibiting the export of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and technologies to China. By imposing stringent export controls, the US aims to impede China’s access to critical components. </p>
<p>The hypothesis has been that HiSilicon and SMIC would continue to stumble as they attempt self-sufficiency at the frontier. The US government has called on its friends to adopt a unified stance around excluding chip exports to China. Notably, ASML, a leading Dutch designer, has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/asml-halts-hi-tech-chip-making-exports-to-china-reportedly-after-us-request#:%7E:text=1%20month%20old-,ASML%20halts%20hi%2Dtech%20chip%2Dmaking%20exports%20to,China%20reportedly%20after%20US%20request&text=A%20Dutch%20manufacturer%20has%20cancelled,government%2C%20it%20has%20been%20reported.">halted shipments</a> of its hi-tech chips to China on account of US policy. </p>
<p>Washington has also <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/china-quietly-recruits-overseas-chip-talent-as-us-tightens-curbs/articleshow/103004607.cms?from=mdr">limited talent flows</a> to the Chinese semiconductor industry. The regulations to limit the movements of talent are motivated by the observation that even “godfathers” of semiconductor manufacturing in Japan, Korea and Taiwan <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2022/09/28/washington-shores-up-friends-in-the-semiconductor-industry/">went on to work</a> for Chinese chipmakers — taking their know-how and connections with them. </p>
<p>This, and the <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/154x9vt/tsmc_delays_us_chip_fab_opening_says_us_talent_is/">recurring headlines</a> about the need for more semiconductor talent in the US, has fuelled the clampdown on the outflow of American talent. </p>
<p>Finally, the US government has explicitly targeted China’s national champion firms: Huawei and SMIC. It banned the sale and import of equipment from <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/After-Huawei-5G-chip-debut-U.S.-lawmakers-call-for-tighter-export-controls#:%7E:text=After%20the%20U.S.%20government%20put,SMIC%20has%20also%20been%20blacklisted.">Huawei in 2019</a> and has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/9/15/us-republicans-demand-full-sanctions-charges-against-chinas-huawei-smic">imposed sanctions on SMIC</a> since 2020. </p>
<h2>What’s at stake?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://ig.ft.com/sites/business-book-award/books/2022/winner/chip-war-by-chris-miller/">“chip war”</a> is about economic and security dominance. Beijing’s ascent to the technological frontier would mean an economic boom for China and bust for the US. And it would have profound security implications.</p>
<p>Economically, China’s emergence as a major semiconductor player could disrupt existing supply chains, reshape the division of labour and distribution of human capital in the global electronics industry. From a security perspective, China’s rise poses a heightened risk of vulnerabilities in Chinese-made chips being exploited to compromise critical infrastructure or conduct cyber espionage. </p>
<p>Chinese self-sufficiency in semiconductor design and manufacturing would also undermine Taiwan’s “silicon shield”. Taiwan’s status as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-microchip-industry-would-implode-if-china-invaded-taiwan-and-it-would-affect-everyone-206335">leading manufacturer</a> of semiconductors has so far deterred China from using force to attack the island.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-microchip-industry-would-implode-if-china-invaded-taiwan-and-it-would-affect-everyone-206335">The microchip industry would implode if China invaded Taiwan, and it would affect everyone</a>
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<p>China is advancing its semiconductor capabilities. The economic, geopolitical and security implications will be profound and far-reaching. Given the stakes that both superpowers face, what we can be sure about is that Washington will not easily acquiesce, nor will Beijing give up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China is making chip progress despite US efforts to contain its industry.Robyn Klingler-Vidra, Associate Dean, Global Engagement | Associate Professor in Entrepreneurship and Sustainability, King's College LondonSteven Hai, Affiliate Fellow, King’s Institute for Artificial Intelligence, King’s College London, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221052024-02-09T16:50:28Z2024-02-09T16:50:28ZChina’s increasing political influence in the south Pacific has sparked an international response<p>Taiwan elected <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/taiwan-ruling-partys-lai-ching-te-wins-presidential-election">Lai Ching-te</a>, also known as William Lai, to be its next president on January 13. His election marks the continuation of a government that promotes an independent Taiwan. </p>
<p>Just two days later, the Pacific nation of Nauru <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/nauru-severs-ties-with-taiwan-switches-diplomatic-allegiance-to-china-20240115-p5exh1.html">severed ties</a> with Taiwan and transferred its diplomatic allegiance to Beijing. </p>
<p>More recently, on January 27, Tuvalu’s pro-Taiwan prime minister, Kausea Natano, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/27/tuvalus-pro-taiwan-prime-minister-kausea-natano-loses-seat-in-partial-election-results?ref=upstract.com">lost his seat</a> in the nation’s general election. Natano’s finance minister, Seve Paeniu, who is aiming for the prime ministership himself, was returned to his seat. In his campaign, Paeniu pledged to <a href="https://devpolicy.org/2024-tuvalu-general-election-a-changing-political-landscape-20240130/#:%7E:text=In%20Tuvalu%20elections%2C%20candidates%20run,both%20incumbents%20won%20re%2Delection.">review</a> Tuvalu’s relationships with China and Taiwan.</p>
<p>These examples indicate China’s growing influence in the south Pacific, a region that the world’s major powers are competing for influence over. But why is the region significant? And how are these major powers exerting their influence there?</p>
<h2>Preventing recognition of Taiwan</h2>
<p>Taiwan has been governed independently since 1949. But Beijing believes it should be reunited with the rest of China. It is not an option for states to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/04/not-about-the-highest-bidder-the-countries-defying-china-to-stick-with-taiwan">diplomatically recognise</a> both China and Taiwan – China forces them to choose. </p>
<p>For decades, the Chinese government has used a combination of carrots and sticks to pressure such states into transferring diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. </p>
<p>China has, for example, imposed significant political, diplomatic and economic sanctions on countries that continue to formally recognise Taiwan. In 2022, China curbed imports from Lithuania to <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/tough-trade-the-hidden-costs-of-economic-coercion/">punish the country</a> for allowing Taiwan to open a de facto embassy in the country.</p>
<p>But China also offers states – and their governing elites – economic and political incentives for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8">withdrawing diplomatic recognition</a> of Taiwan. It has, in the past, used its influence in the UN and other international organisations to block assistance or elect specific people to international positions.</p>
<p>Nauru’s change of diplomatic position, and the political debate unfolding in Tuvulu, should be understood as part of China’s longstanding effort to prevent and reduce recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign state. </p>
<p>But they are a significant step forward for China. Nauru has a leading position in the Pacific Islands Forum – the main political decision-making body for the region – so the country’s change of stance could lead to wider formal diplomatic changes in the south Pacific. </p>
<p>China, of course, has legitimate economic and political interests in the south Pacific too. It is a vital export market for natural resources from Pacific island states and is a key source of incoming tourism. According to <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/202205/t20220524_10691917.html">Chinese statistics</a>, total trade volume between China and Pacific island states grew from US$153 million (£121 million) to US$5.3 billion (£4.2 billion) between 1992 and 2021.</p>
<h2>Competing for influence</h2>
<p>Nauru’s decision is another diplomatic setback for Taiwan, which is now formally recognised by just 11 countries. However, this is not in itself a serious concern for the US, Australia and their allies. </p>
<p>They all formally recognise China, while at the same time maintaining close, informal links with Taiwan. Their focus is on trying to limit the depth of Chinese political and economic influence over Pacific island states and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region. The US is concerned that growing Chinese political influence may ultimately result in it enjoying significant military presence in the region.</p>
<p>The Pacific region encompasses the US state of Hawaii, multiple US territories, and is also home to several crucial US military bases. So, the US has made an effort to <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11208">enhance its diplomatic relations</a> in the region by providing financial support for initiatives around climate change adaption, sustainable fishing and economic growth. </p>
<p>However, increased tension between China and the west over the past decade has made it increasingly challenging to reign in Chinese influence. China has been asserting its primacy in and around Taiwan in the South China Sea, and has increasingly <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-military-aggression-in-the-indo-pacific-region/">exerted military pressure</a>. </p>
<p>China’s struggle for influence in the region now also includes taking opportunities to challenge previously undisputed western security dominance in the south Pacific. In 2022, China put forward a proposal for a diplomatic, economic and security agreement with the region. The agreement was, however, later <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11208">abandoned</a> due to resistance from some Pacific island nations at the urging of the US and Australia.</p>
<h2>US strategy in the south Pacific</h2>
<p>When president, Donald Trump launched a number of deals with Pacific islands including Nauru, Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands, Palau and Micronesia. However, Trump’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trump-administration-and-the-free-and-open-indo-pacific/#:%7E:text=The%20administration%20has%20rolled%20out,programs%2C%20which%20support%20these%20goals">strategy</a> for a “free and open Indo-Pacific” had limited success. This was not only due to his confrontational posture towards China, but also to his threatening and protectionist “America first” rhetoric. </p>
<p>Joe Biden’s comparatively measured diplomacy has seen more success. In 2022, the Biden administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Pacific-Partnership-Strategy.pdf">announced</a> its “Pacific partnership strategy”.</p>
<p>The initiative included a commitment of US$810 million in development aid across the Pacific island region. And in May 2023, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/25/fact-sheet-enhancing-the-u-s-pacific-islands-partnership/#:%7E:text=Last%20year%2C%20the%20Biden%2DHarris,%24810%20million%20in%20new%20assistance">stated</a> that he would work with Congress to provide over US$7.2 billion to support the region. </p>
<p>Since then, the US has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/25/statement-by-president-biden-on-the-recognition-of-the-cook-islands-and-the-establishment-of-diplomatic-relations/">recognised</a> the Cook Islands and Niue as independent, sovereign nations, increased its diplomatic footprint in the region and has committed strongly to work with the Pacific Islands Forum to promote a “democratic, resilient and prosperous Pacific islands region”.</p>
<p>The shift of diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China does not mean that Pacific island nations want to reduce their ties with the west. But the US, Australia and their allies will need to invest a lot more in diplomatic, economic and security assistance if they want to counter China’s growing influence there.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China is asserting itself in the South Pacific, prompting efforts from the US and its allies to contain its influence.Owen Greene, Professor of International Security and Development, University of BradfordChristoph Bluth, Professor of International Relations and Security, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219182024-02-05T17:12:54Z2024-02-05T17:12:54ZCanada’s military is ‘too woke?’ Hardly — it must embrace diversity to survive<p>The publication of the <a href="http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/cmj-23.3-toc-en.html">latest issue</a> of the <em>Canadian Military Journal</em> (CMJ) <a href="https://tnc.news/2024/01/08/military-white-supremacy-patriarchy-official-caf-journal/">has angered</a> some of Canada’s <a href="https://torontosun.com/news/lilley-unleashed-free-mens-room-tampons-wont-fix-troubles-at-canadian-armed-forces">right-wing</a> <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/first-reading-the-canadian-militarys-all-in-embrace-of-far-left-anti-oppression-dogma">media commentators</a>. </p>
<p>The issue on the topic of diversity in the Canadian Armed Forces <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/liberals-impose-a-culture-of-wokeism-on-the-canadian-armed-forces">was branded as “woke”</a> by the right. Furthermore, these commentators implied the military itself has been taken hostage by radical ideological “activists,” specifically the women involved with the issue.</p>
<p>The irony of this, incidentally, seems lost on the Rebel News site that decries the “activism” of others <a href="https://www.rebelnews.com/military_continues_crusade_against_whiteness_in_the_armed_forces">while labelling itself “rebel</a>.”</p>
<p>The opinion pieces are effectively political performance art, more concerned with stirring up resentment against the ruling Liberals than solving the woes of Canada’s military. </p>
<p>That the <em>Journal</em> has devoted its <a href="http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/cmj-23.1-toc-en.html">last three</a> issues to <a href="http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/cmj-23.2-toc-en.html">both education and diversity</a> in the military is <a href="https://macleans.ca/news/canada/our-militarys-disgrace-a-preview-of-our-latest-cover-story/">no surprise</a> to those <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ptsd-and-danger-among-deterrents-to-visible-minorities-joining-military-1.2849647">who have</a> been <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/sexual-misbehaviour/external-review-2015.html">paying attention</a> to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/report-of-the-independent-external-comprehensive-review.html">widepsread coverage</a> of the military’s leadership failures over the past decade, nor is it an indication of where the publication’s coverage is heading in the future. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-taking-canadas-armed-forces-so-long-to-tackle-sexual-misconduct-196869">What's taking Canada's Armed Forces so long to tackle sexual misconduct?</a>
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<h2>Improving work environment</h2>
<p>If we take this somewhat hysterical reaction in good faith, it reveals a deep-seated concern over the readiness of Canada’s military to deal with a national security emergency. It suggests that social concerns have distracted the military from its proper role to prepare for war.</p>
<p>Setting aside for the moment that Canada remains one of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-would-canada-approach-the-prospect-of-war-181106">the most secure geographical locations</a> on the planet, the idea that our armed forces are “too woke” misunderstands efforts to improve the work environment for historically underrepresented groups.</p>
<p>This effort is as central to the ability of the CAF to fight wars in the future as acquiring the latest military technology. If diverse perspectives within our own workforce are too difficult to understand, how much harder will be the effort <a href="https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2022/11/16/operationalizing-strategic-empathy">to understand</a> those of <a href="http://cftni.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Grover-John-Official.pdf">our allies</a> <a href="https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3221&context=parameters">and enemies</a>?</p>
<p>“Wokeness” emerged as a term of <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-woke-came-from-and-why-marketers-should-think-twice-before-jumping-on-the-social-activism-bandwagon-122713">political activism</a> from the <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/21437879/stay-woke-wokeness-history-origin-evolution-controversy">Black American experience in the 1930s</a>. In recent years, it has been reappropriated to mock efforts to re-examine or change cultural norms. </p>
<p>Now, criticizing something as woke only serves <a href="https://www.yorkdispatch.com/story/opinion/contributors/2023/02/22/the-war-on-woke-is-meaningless-which-is-why-its-so-popular/69931788007/">to identify and silence debate</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-woke-means-and-how-to-respond-to-it-219588">Here's what 'woke' means and how to respond to it</a>
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<h2>People are central to military success</h2>
<p>People are the foundation of all military capability. </p>
<p><a href="https://cdainstitute.ca/darrell-bricker-demographic-changes-are-shaping-caf-recruitment-future-crises/">Historically, the Canadian Armed Forces has drawn the majority of its personnel from rural Canada</a>. Demographically, this source no longer reliably <a href="http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vo8/no3/jung-eng.asp">provides sufficient numbers</a> of recruits to maintain the size of Canada’s military. Racialized minorities are now <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023008/article/00001-eng.htm">the fastest growing portion</a> of Canada’s population.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/papers/csc/csc48/mds/Timms.pdf">War is the province of hardship</a>. Training focuses on developing individual resilience to such conditions. Training also works to help team members bond and develop camaraderie, so that in the most difficult of circumstances, all will pull together in the same direction with the same effort. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/259/290/405/192/stevens.pdf">Research</a> <a href="https://www.mqup.ca/ones-we-let-down--the-products-9780228011262.php">of the kind</a> <a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781487522735/strengthening-the-canadian-armed-forces-through-diversity-and-inclusion/">highlighted in</a> <a href="https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/259/290/308/192/mann.pdf">the pages of the <em>Canadian Military Journal</em></a> shows that the norms and mores that have historically shaped Canada’s military no longer reflect the increasingly diverse population of citizens. </p>
<p>Canada’s proud military history <a href="https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/NCO-Journal/Archives/2022/February/What-Soldiers-Want/">isn’t motivating</a> <a href="https://www.queensu.ca/cidp/publications/policy-briefs/post-millennials-and-canadian-armed-forces">young Canadians to enlist</a>. Many of the institutions and traditions of service, in fact, <a href="https://www.cgai.ca/the_importance_of_people_in_defence">actually discourage</a> people to stay in uniform. </p>
<h2>Many alternate career options</h2>
<p>In my role as professor at the Canadian Forces College, I’ve heard older CAF members sometimes argue “you joined us, we didn’t join you.” This is a disastrous attitude given potential recruits and long-serving military personnel have considerable career options to choose from — often with better pay and fewer hassles and hardships that come with military life. </p>
<p>How we treat military families also has a strong impact on retention. <a href="https://jmvfh.utpjournals.press/doi/pdf/10.3138/jmvfh-2019-0003">Contemporary military families</a>, like those of Canadian society in general, no longer reflect the tradition of a single male wage-earner with a non-employed female spouse to raise the kids.</p>
<p>The criticism of the <em>Canadian Military Journal</em>’s content essentially concludes with admonishments that diversity and inclusion efforts are a silly waste of time and resources that should be devoted to “proper soldiering.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeau-and-nato-the-problem-with-canadian-defence-isnt-cash-its-culture-204252">Justin Trudeau and NATO: The problem with Canadian defence isn’t cash, it's culture</a>
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<p>They ignore the elephant in the room — institutional failures are directly relevant to the ongoing crisis. The solution, they seem to suggest, is to double down <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-barriers-diversifying-ombudsman-1.6455142">on failed policies</a> rather than engage in the hard work of making a career in the military attractive.</p>
<p>In the end, these “woke” efforts are aimed at increasing operational readiness by attracting more recruits from previously underrepresented groups, and building a diverse force representative of Canada and its values. </p>
<p>Defaulting to the same past approach is, as <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3616786/dod-addresses-recruiting-shortfall-challenges/">demonstrated by missed</a> <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/27/military-staffing-crisis-deepens-recruitment-scheme-delayed/">recruiting targets</a> of most <a href="https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/05/03/short-handed-army-to-miss-recruiting-goal-for-second-year-in-a-row/">western militaries</a>, akin to the observation that “<a href="https://medium.com/illumination/one-of-the-most-famous-quotes-is-wrongly-attributed-to-einstein-d08445ebca9f">insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.</a>” </p>
<p>It is time for change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul T. Mitchell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Efforts to improve the diversity and inclusiveness of Canada’s military do not need to compete with those maintaining military standards. In fact, each goal reinforces the other.Paul T. Mitchell, Professor of Defence Studies, Canadian Forces CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224432024-02-05T15:15:01Z2024-02-05T15:15:01ZPakistan election: the military has long meddled in the country’s politics – this year will be no different<p>Pakistan’s former prime minister, Imran Khan, has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68192196">sentenced</a> to seven years in prison after a Pakistani court ruled his marriage un-Islamic and illegal. Khan had already been sentenced to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/31/imran-khan-pakistan-former-pm-sentenced-prison-14-years-corruption-charges">14 years</a> in jail for corruption and barred from holding public office for ten years a week earlier and, a day before that, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/imran-khan-pm-sentenced-prison-pakistan">ten years</a> in prison for leaking official state secrets.</p>
<p>Khan claims that the cases against him are politically motivated. Since being <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61055210">deposed</a> in 2022, Khan has taken aim at the country’s powerful military, which has a long history of interfering in politics. He has accused the army chief, the military establishment and the US government of conspiring against him. </p>
<p>Now he argues that military leadership have orchestrated his imprisonment so he cannot run in the upcoming general election on February 8. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1810143">Members</a> of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have also been imprisoned or pressured into leaving their positions, and workers have been prevented from holding political rallies in the run up to the election. </p>
<p>The relentless harassment and intimidation of the PTI and its supporters, and the favour shown to Nawaz Sharif of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party, has led to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/30/can-pakistans-politicians-break-the-militarys-stranglehold">muted election campaign</a>. Sharif has been prime minister three times, but was ousted in 2017.</p>
<p>Khan will appeal his convictions and is likely to get some relief from the courts. But one thing is clear: the military has no intention of allowing a free and fair election on February 8.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A child at a demonstration holding aloft a picture of Nawaz Sharif." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573128/original/file-20240202-15-hgtsqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nawaz Sharif is expected to be all but escorted into an election win.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/karachi-pakistan-feb-22-pmln-holding-1031149930">Asianet-Pakistan/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Military dominance</h2>
<p>The military’s organisation, structures and practices were developed under the British (who ruled what is now Pakistan until independence in 1947). But its expansion into politics is <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/pakistan/pakistans-military-still-runs-show-imran-khan">rooted</a> in the persistent fear of war with India, its desire to control foreign policy, and its wish to protect its budgetary allocations and fiscal interests.</p>
<p>In 2022, military <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.ZS?locations=PK">expenditure</a> accounted for nearly 18% of government spending in Pakistan, making the military the best-resourced institution in the country. It is also a business conglomerate and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/may/31/books.pakistan">owns</a> millions of acres of public land. And it has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jul/11/us-aid-to-pakistan">received</a> considerable military assistance as a frontline ally of the US during its engagements in Afghanistan.</p>
<p>The military has long looked to prevent the election of anyone who might try to influence policies that diverge from its entrenched interests. In 2017, Sharif, who was then prime minister, fell out of favour with the military following <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44239582">disagreements</a> about normalising relations with India. Sharif was <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/06/21/pakistans-army-is-using-every-trick-to-sideline-nawaz-sharif">arrested</a> on charges of corruption and sentenced to ten years in jail less than two weeks before the 2018 general election.</p>
<p>Khan won that election with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-elections-weak-government-will-allow-army-to-keep-pulling-the-strings-98503">backing of the military</a>. But, despite starting his time in office by being on <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/12/why-are-imran-khans-supporters-angry-with-pakistans-military">“one page”</a> with the military and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/ex-pakistan-pm-warns-of-deepening-crisis-as-fears-of-new-election-delay-grow">ceding</a> alarming amounts of political space to them, Khan’s relationship with the military soon turned sour. Tensions exploded when Khan tried to retain Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed as the military spy chief, rejecting the nominee of army chief General Qamar Bajwa. </p>
<p>In April 2022, Khan was ousted from power in a vote of no-confidence. He accused the US of <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1682104">engineering</a> his removal and made <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/imran-khan-arrest-pakistan-military">numerous claims</a> that challenged the military directly. He alleged that the then army chief held a grudge against him, that the military had arrested and tried to assassinate him, and that the military was “above the law”. </p>
<p>Khan’s accusations culminated in his arrest on corruption charges on May 9 2023. His imprisonment has resulted in an <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-65711385">unprecedented</a> public backlash against the military. Khan’s supporters attacked state institutions and military installations, even breaching the army’s headquarters.</p>
<p>Hundreds of PTI supporters were arrested and the military <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/pakistan-military-says-will-punish-planners-of-may-9-violence">vowed</a> to “punish” them, handing many over to military courts in violation of international law. Three military officials were <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-66016331">sacked</a> for their role in the unrest. Since then, the military has by all <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/30/can-pakistans-politicians-break-the-militarys-stranglehold">accounts</a> tightened its grip over Pakistan’s politics, even <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/23/pakistans-army-chief-vows-to-keep-military-out-of-politics">publicly admitting</a> to meddling in politics.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protestors on a road kicking away tear gas shells fired by police." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573127/original/file-20240202-29-80u70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of Imran Khan protesting in Lahore, Pakistan, against his arrest. May 10, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/supporters-pakistans-former-prime-minister-imran-2304142187">Murtaza.Ali/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overdue polls</h2>
<p>Pakistan’s national elections were <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/2/pakistan-to-hold-delayed-elections-on-february-8-electoral-commission-says">supposed to be held</a> in November 2023. But they were delayed due to the need to redraw constituency boundaries following a census. Many are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66446957">sceptical</a> of this claim and have questioned the ability of Pakistan’s electoral commission to conduct fair polls.</p>
<p>The lead up to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/ex-pakistan-pm-warns-of-deepening-crisis-as-fears-of-new-election-delay-grow">delayed</a> polls has been marred by <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/asia/pakistan-election-candidate-killed-intl-hnk/index.html">violence</a>. And, though the polls are expected to go ahead, the electoral commission has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-election-panel-summons-meeting-rising-poll-violence-2024-02-01/">asked</a> for security support from the military.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the PTI has faced persistent harassment. Its website is <a href="https://www.brecorder.com/news/40285928/ptis-website-blocked-countrywide">blocked</a> in Pakistan and the party has faced legal setbacks such as <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/23/pakistan-ex-pms-party-loses-election-symbol-will-it-hurt-its-prospects">losing</a> its electoral symbol – the cricket bat – for not holding intra-party elections. The continuing harassment and intimidation of PTI supporters may also have a chilling effect on voters.</p>
<p>No election in Pakistan can be called free and fair for as long as the military establishment continues to play kingmaker. The election on February 8 is no different. </p>
<p>The military’s political engineering has ensured that it is impossible for there to be a level playing field for the parties on election day. It only remains to be seen if citizens will turn out to exercise their right to vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sameen Mohsin Ali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pakistan’s citizens will vote in a lopsided poll on February 8.Sameen Mohsin Ali, Lecturer in International Development, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215102024-01-22T14:55:11Z2024-01-22T14:55:11ZDrone-zapping laser weapons now effective (and cheap) reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570470/original/file-20240121-38659-1vateu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C3%2C589%2C363&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dragonfire laser system test firing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">UK Ministry of Defence/wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A single burst of light is precisely aimed at a tiny drone flying at breakneck speed far in the distance. Instants later, the deactivated drone crashes into the sea. Not a sound made, no human casualties, no messy explosions. A lethal, multimillion-dollar drone cleanly taken out by a shot that cost less than a good bottle of wine.</p>
<p>If you think this is a scene from a sci-fi movie, think again. Only a few days ago, a team of UK scientists and engineers successfully <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/advanced-future-military-laser-achieves-uk-first">demonstrated that this is viable technology</a> that could find its way on to the battlefield in the next five to ten years. </p>
<p>DragonFire, a £30 million technology programme launched in 2017 and involving the UK government agency Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, missiles manufacturer MBDA, aerospace company Leonardo UK and defence technology company QinetiQ, has passed its first field test by shooting down several drones off the coast of Scotland using laser beams. </p>
<p>Drones are unmanned and semi-automatic aircrafts capable of delivering deadly damage with pinpoint accuracy. They feature <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-drones-are-changing-the-conflict-both-on-the-frontline-and-beyond-211460">heavily on modern battlefields</a>, including the Ukrainian war and the commercial naval routes in the Red Sea.</p>
<p>Shooting them down is not easy and typically involves firing missiles that cost up to £1 million each. While usually effective, defensive systems of this kind are costly and carry a significant risk of causing collateral damage; if a missile misses its target, it will eventually land somewhere and still explode.</p>
<p>However, you don’t have to cause a spectacular explosion to deactivate a drone; interfering with its control and navigation systems is more than enough. This is a job that a laser beam can do. Lasers are nothing but particularly bright and directional beams of light – a particular kind of <a href="https://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/toolbox/emspectrum1.html">electromagnetic radiation</a>. A sufficiently powerful laser can interfere with any electronic device, causing it to malfunction. </p>
<p>Compared to standard missiles, a high-power laser system has a range of strategic advantages. It is surprisingly cheap to operate. Running DragonFire for ten seconds costs the equivalent of using a heater for an hour (less than £10 per shot). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="DragonFire laser system." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">DragonFire laser system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.mbda-systems.com/press-releases/dragonfire-proving-trials-underway">MDBA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lasers are also free from the risk of collateral damage. Even if a laser misses its target, it will keep on propagating upwards and eventually be absorbed and scattered in the atmosphere. A laser is a beam of light, so it only propagates in straight lines, regardless of gravity. Also, they usually cover a small area of the order of a few millimetres – they are akin to a surgical intervention.</p>
<p>Lasers are therefore the defensive weapon par excellence; they can only be used to stop incoming threats, not cause significant harm. Lasers are also far less susceptible to countermeasures. By its very nature of being a beam of light, lasers travel at the fastest possible speed: the speed of light. Once a laser beam is fired, there is nothing else in nature that can catch up with it and neutralise it.</p>
<p>Laser beams have been used on the battlefield for quite some time. They are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914719312231">mainly used for</a> tracking targets, remote sensing and precision aiming. However, this is the first time that this type of technology has proven effective in a disruptive application. </p>
<h2>Challenges remain</h2>
<p>The reason it has taken so long to develop this weapon is that to disable a drone, you need a laser beam with significant intensity.</p>
<p>However, if the laser beam is too powerful, it can strongly interact with the air in the atmosphere, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/7/918">causing it to be absorbed or scattered</a>. One needs to strike the perfect balance of beam parameters, such as its <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/schwartz/files/lecture10-power.pdf">wavelength power</a> and shape, to make sure that it can propagate over long distances without significant degradation.</p>
<p>A laser beam will also be particularly sensitive to atmospheric conditions. The presence of fog, rain, or clouds <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/7/918">can significantly affect its performance</a>. </p>
<p>Due to the increasing threat posed by drones and subsonic missiles on a global scale, the UK defence ministry is now accelerating the development of this technology, with the expectation of having it fielded on war vessels in the next five to ten years. </p>
<p>Several technical and scientific issues still need to be addressed. For example, keeping the pointing of the laser stable on a moving platform (such as a cruiser in choppy waters) is not a simple task. It is like trying to hit the bullseye on a dartboard while standing on a balance board. However, this will only affect the accuracy of the weapon, without increasing the risk of collateral damage.</p>
<p>It will also be necessary to decouple the laser system performance from the weather conditions. Water droplets and air drafts can scatter or absorb the laser, reducing its effects. One would need to precisely factor in variable weather conditions in the preparation of the beam to be fired. While this is not an impossible task, it is technically difficult.</p>
<p>A structured training programme must also be established to ensure soldiers can efficiently operate such a high-tech system. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, these first tests demonstrate the viability and efficacy of this weapon, which promises to revolutionise modern warfare in the coming years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gianluca Sarri receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), InnovateUK, and Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL). </span></em></p>Operating the DragonFire laser system for ten seconds costs the equivalent of using a heater for an hour (less than £10 per shot).Gianluca Sarri, Professor at the School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194702024-01-08T21:22:07Z2024-01-08T21:22:07ZService dogs play vital roles for veterans, but Canada’s lack of standards makes travel and access difficult<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/service-dogs-play-vital-roles-for-veterans-but-canadas-lack-of-standards-makes-travel-and-access-difficult" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>It is becoming common to see dogs assisting people with their mental health in Canadian communities. Over the past five years, our <a href="https://www.pawsitiveconnectionslab.com">research lab</a> has been studying the <a href="https://doi.org/10.21061/jvs.v7i1.194">benefits of service dogs for Canadian veterans</a> dealing with post-traumatic stress injuries and other mental health challenges. </p>
<p>Our findings align with research from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jts.22587">United States</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychres.2023.115212">Australia</a> emphasizing the valuable role of service dogs in veterans’ treatment plans. For example, service dogs can wake a veteran from a traumatic nightmare. </p>
<p>This finding also aligns with studies examining the positive effects of owning a pet on mental health. While there is a need for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274960">more research</a>, most anyone with a pet in their family can attest to some benefit. </p>
<p>Our research team is not only adding to the growing evidence about the benefits of specific tasks a trained service dog can assist a veteran with, but we are also uncovering the positive impacts of the human-animal bond. The <a href="https://www.avma.org/one-health/human-animal-bond">human-animal bond</a> is understood as a mutually beneficial relationship between people and animals. </p>
<h2>Approaches to training and standards</h2>
<p>In early 2023, our research lab identified nearly <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/629f8dcf8cbdb56e047bb866/t/642b0b527763c50e7c2be22a/1680542550706/UofS+-+Canadian+Service+Dogs.pdf">100 service dog training organizations</a> in Canada. The number is likely even higher today. This ranged from not-for-profit organizations that train a person’s pet dog to be a service dog, to for-profit organizations that provide a service dog to a veteran for a fee they are commonly asked to fundraise — this can be upwards of $30,000. </p>
<p>Considering this difference alone, it is easy to see why there is a need for service dog standards in Canada. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.scc.ca/en/standards/what-are-standards">Standards</a> are generally agreed upon rules, guidelines or characteristics for activities or their results. Basically, they offer guidance, just like a recipe to make dog biscuits would! An example of a standard for service dogs is requirements for their selection, training, safety and welfare. </p>
<p>Given that there are very different approaches among organizations in how service dogs are trained and matched with veterans, neither the service dog industry nor Canada’s federal, provincial or territorial governments have come to any consensus on what the standards should be. </p>
<p>In fact, in 2017, the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/service-dogs-ptsd-standards-1.4625484">Canadian General Standards Board</a> continued a process that was initiated by members of the service dog community in <a href="https://www.cf4aass.ca/application/files/7516/6665/7748/firstcndmilassistdogsummitreport2013finalversion.pdf">2013</a>. The aim was to reach a consensus, but it was unsuccessful and may have inadvertently increased confusion and tension in the field. <a href="https://cf4aass.ca/application/files/6616/7651/1209/consensus-_standards_-are_they_going_to_the_dogs.pdf">The need for service dog standards was identified</a> at least two decades earlier in Canada. </p>
<h2>Impact of lack of standards</h2>
<p>The lack of national standards has led provinces and territories to take <a href="https://www.cf4aass.ca/resource-one/resource-six">assorted approaches</a>, if any, to public access for service dogs. This has resulted in numerous challenges for veterans, such as <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/service-dogs-in-public">travelling between provinces</a> with their service dogs. </p>
<p>It has prompted <a href="https://policies.usask.ca/documents/procedures-student-service-animals.pdf">businesses and organizations</a> lacking expertise about service dogs to create their own policies. It has also made human rights commissions and tribunals busy with <a href="https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/2022/12/02/service-dog-user-urged-to-file-human-rights-case">complaints</a>. </p>
<p>The impact of the lack of standards extends beyond its effects on veterans with service dogs. It also affects others matched with service dogs, including first responders and current Canadian Armed Forces members, as well as other forms of service dogs who are trained to assist, like <a href="https://autismdogservices.ca/">autism service dogs</a> and <a href="https://www.dogguides.com/programs/diabetic-alert/">diabetes alert</a> service dogs.</p>
<h2>Taking action to improve veteran health</h2>
<p>There may not be consensus in Canada right now about national and/or provincial and territorial service dog standards, but we are confident the field can agree upon one thing — our commitment to improving veteran health. </p>
<p>In the meantime, we propose a shift toward practical approaches that government, service dog organizations and trainers, businesses and members of the general public can take to improve veteran health. These suggestions recognize the value of the human-animal bond. </p>
<h2>Role of governments:</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>Recognize the merits of developing standards through a process that honours the human-animal bond experiences of veterans and service dogs. Consider the guidance offered from the 2023 voluntary process undertaken by the <a href="https://www.cf4aass.ca/application/files/7216/9543/2723/CAN.HRSO-500.01-2023-A.1-EN.pdf">Canadian Foundation for Animal Assisted Support Services</a> to develop a management system for all animal-involved human support services. </p></li>
<li><p>Be familiar with the value of accreditation for organizational quality standards. In 2023, two service dog programs, <a href="https://www.canadianaccreditation.ca/accreditation/accredited-organizations/?wpv_view_count=937&wpv-wpcf-organization=audeamus&wpv_filter_submit=Submit&wpv_aux_current_post_id=932&wpv_aux_parent_post_id=932">Audeamus Inc.</a> and <a href="https://www.canadianaccreditation.ca/accreditation/accredited-organizations/?wpv_view_count=937&wpv-wpcf-organization=courageous+comp&wpv_filter_submit=Submit&wpv_aux_current_post_id=932&wpv_aux_parent_post_id=932">Courageous Companions Inc.</a>, achieved several accreditation standards (for example, Governance & Management) for the first time in Canada through the <a href="https://www.canadianaccreditation.ca/accreditation/accredited-organizations/">Canadian Accreditation Council</a>. Both Audeamus and Courageous Companions recognize the bond between a veteran and their service dog. </p></li>
<li><p>Accreditation in this case is not to be confused with service dog standards. <a href="https://www.canadianaccreditation.ca/">Accreditation typically reviews an organization’s general structures, programs and practices involving humans against the accrediting body’s standards</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>Review the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/programs/about-canada-revenue-agency-cra/federal-government-budgets/budget-2018-equality-growth-strong-middle-class/medical-expenses-tax-credit.html#wb-cont">Medical Expense Tax Credit — Service Animals</a> program that applies to veterans and consider the applicability of such a program to pets. Service dogs are specially trained to perform technical tasks well beyond what a pet can. However, recognition of the health benefits of the human-animal bond with pets is likewise important. </p></li>
<li><p>The <a href="https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/content/canadian-transportation-agency-issues-final-decision-about-travelling-emotional-support">Canadian Transportation Agency</a> can be looked to for guidance with its recent decision on how individuals being treated for a mental disability can travel in an air, rail or ferry passenger cabin with an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/pov-sorting-out-the-service-dog-confusion-ainsley-hawthorn-1.5471013">emotional support animal</a>, and specifically dogs in an approved animal carrier. These passengers are recognized by a mental health professional to have a beneficial emotional connection or bond with their pet.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Role of service dog organizations and trainers:</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>Service dog trainers embrace a <a href="https://www.saskhealthauthority.ca/our-organization/our-direction/engagement/sha-engagement-framework/trauma-informed-engagement">trauma-informed approach</a> to provide services to people with a mental health concern. The online, three-hour <a href="https://servicedogtoolkit.ca/">Connecting for Veteran Wellness</a> certificate course recognizes the role of trauma and the beneficial influence of the human-animal bond on client health. It is now available at no cost.</p></li>
<li><p>Acknowledge the interconnectedness of human and animal welfare by exploring a
<a href="https://www.animalhealthcanada.ca/work-areas/one-welfare">One Welfare framework</a> to challenge the influence of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/speciesism">speciesism</a>, the assumption of human superiority over animals, in the service dog field. This aligns with <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/h6040078">Indigenous worldviews</a> of the relationship between human, animal and planetary health.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Role of the general public:</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>Recognize the challenges veterans face when in public with their service dogs, such as being denied access to a business because of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/this-service-dog-isn-t-a-golden-retriever-or-lab-is-that-why-this-woman-wasn-t-allowed-in-an-ontario-hotel-1.6711426">stigma</a> or having a stranger <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/service-dogs-in-public">ask them to disclose their disability</a> for their own interest by inquiring about the reason they need a service dog. </p></li>
<li><p>Be informed about what service dogs do and who they are, including that they can be any breed of dog. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>A recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13193091">Canadian survey</a> by our research lab found that the Canadian public generally holds positive views of service dogs, with some groups (for example, women) more supportive than others. In this area, Canada is doing well!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colleen Dell receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and has received funding from Health Canada and Veterans Affairs Canada to study service dogs.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linzi Williamson receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR). </span></em></p>Organizations have very different approaches to training service dogs and matching them with veterans. Neither the industry nor Canada’s provinces and territories have come to a consensus on standards.Colleen Dell, Professor and Research Chair in One Health & Wellness, University of SaskatchewanLinzi Williamson, Assistant Professor, Psychology & Health Studies, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187842023-12-12T19:53:39Z2023-12-12T19:53:39ZCanada owes its veterans new mental health tools: Access to psychedelic therapies is overdue<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canada-owes-its-veterans-new-mental-health-tools-access-to-psychedelic-therapies-is-overdue" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The Canadian Senate Subcommittee on Veterans Affairs recently released a striking report entitled <a href="https://sencanada.ca/en/info-page/parl-44-1/veac-psychedelic-therapies/"><em>The Time is Now: Granting Equitable Access to Psychedelic Therapies</em></a>. </p>
<p>To address high rates of suicide and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among veterans, the report calls on Veterans Affairs Canada (VAC) to immediately implement “a robust research program funded by VAC and the Department of National Defence (DND) in partnership with Health Canada, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and all other relevant partners.”</p>
<p>With psychedelic research, Veterans Affairs Canada has a real chance to live up to its mandate “to provide exemplary, client-centred services and benefits that respond to the needs of veterans, our other clients and their families.” </p>
<p>As a psychedelics researcher with an interest in veteran health, I couldn’t be happier, especially with the Senate focus on timeliness, equity and access. </p>
<p>Not only is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372244882_Knowledge_Synthesis_in_the_Science_of_Psilocybin_Scoping_Reviews_of_Clinical_and_Preclinical_Research">my PhD on the therapeutic application of psilocybin</a>, but my father was a veteran of the Canadian Forces, as is my brother and two uncles and both of my grandfathers. I grew up on Canadian Forces bases.</p>
<h2>Canada’s veterans</h2>
<p>Lt. Col. (ret’d) Jack Shore, my father, graduate of the <a href="https://www.btb.termiumplus.gc.ca/tpv2alpha/alpha-eng.html?lang=eng&srchtxt=APPRENTICE%20SOLDIER">Soldier Apprentice Program</a> and a United Nations Peacekeeper in the <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/sites/default/files/past/onucB.htm">Congo mission</a> of the early 1960s, passed away as I was working as a guest co-editor of a special edition of the <a href="https://jmvfh.utpjournals.press/toc/jmvfh/current"><em>Journal of Military, Veteran and Family Health</em></a>. The theme of the edition is “Therapeutic use of psychedelics, entheogens, entactogens, cannabinoids and dissociative anesthetics for military members and veterans.” </p>
<p>While my Dad rarely talked about his time in the Congo, he experienced what we would now recognize as moral injury, and most likely PTSD. These conditions directly shaped our family life and upbringing. That was before Sudan, Rwanda, the Yugoslav wars and Afghanistan.</p>
<p>My childhood on bases occurred in time of relative peace, but Canada has now had a few generations of soldiers experience active combat. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://patientsmedicalhome.ca/resources/best-advice-guides/best-advice-guide-caring-for-veterans/">629,000 veterans living in Canada have rates of depression, anxiety and substance use disorder that are higher than the civilian population</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jts.21956">One in seven is living with PTSD</a>. Veterans are <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/maxbellschool/files/maxbellschool/ofha_veteran_homelessness_policy_brief_-_2023.pdf">two to three times more likely</a> to experience homelessness compared to the general population. </p>
<h2>Duty of care</h2>
<p>To veterans of the Canadian Forces and to their families, we owe a duty of care, and not just to provide services and access to novel treatments. We also have a duty to care enough to do the science well and to tackle the public policy challenges (including regulatory drug reform) necessary to provide Canadian veterans with effective care.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“It is the Government of Canada’s duty to assure veterans that it is doing everything in its power, immediately, to respect its solemn commitment to support, at any cost, those who chose to defend us with honour.” — <a href="https://sencanada.ca/en/info-page/parl-44-1/veac-psychedelic-therapies/">The Subcommittee on Veterans Affairs, Senate of Canada</a> </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The role of the VAC includes paying for the cost of health-care benefits and other services for veterans through the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/topics/benefit-plans/plans/health-care-plan.html">Public Service Health Care Plan</a> and supplemental treatment benefits. While this single-payer provider model has advantages, it relies heavily on VAC staff and managers to assess and approve plans of care. </p>
<p>Developing a psychedelics research program for veterans should be seen as a public health priority. It will most likely require an independent panel of experts and stakeholders, including veterans, to help shape the agenda in a timely manner for the VAC. </p>
<h2>Psychedelic therapies</h2>
<p><a href="https://cimvhr.ca/">The Canadian Institute for Military and Veteran Health Research</a> (CIMVHR), founded in 2010, is well positioned as the Canadian hub for military, veteran and family health research to provide the infrastructure to foster collaboration, ensure stakeholder engagement and work on the knowledge translation so necessary to rapidly developing the capacity and expertise of Canadian researchers.</p>
<p>We can build on the work of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, which is <a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05876481?term=Veteran&intr=Psilocybin&rank=1">currently conducting several psilocybin trials</a>, and the long-standing work of <a href="https://maps.org/">MAPS (Multi-disciplinary Association of Psychedelic Studies)</a> in advancing MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD towards regulatory approval. We can also listen to the experts, such as Canada Health Research Chair in Mental Health Disparities Monnica Williams, who are calling for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11469-023-01160-5">greater equity and improved inclusion of BIPOC veterans and researchers</a>. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“When we have tried everything in our toolbox but still cannot help our patients, it is truly time for some new tools.” —<a href="https://jmvfh.utpjournals.press/toc/jmvfh/9/5">Monnica Williams</a>, Canada Health Research Chair in Mental Health Disparities </p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-potential-of-psychedelics-to-heal-our-racial-traumas-218233">The potential of psychedelics to heal our racial traumas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Psychedelic ketamine appears to have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1192%2Fbjo.2021.1061">positive but short-lived outcomes</a> in the treatment of mood disorders, and ketamine clinics require evaluation given recent <a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/human-drug-compounding/fda-warns-patients-and-health-care-providers-about-potential-risks-associated-compounded-ketamine">FDA warnings</a> about risks of commercialized mental health telemedicine and take-home doses.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the Canadian public may want to reconsider the policy framework that still severely limits access to these promising compounds for researchers, clinicians and those in need. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albertas-new-policy-on-psychedelic-drug-treatment-for-mental-illness-will-canada-lead-the-psychedelic-renaissance-195061">Alberta’s new policy on psychedelic drug treatment for mental illness: Will Canada lead the psychedelic renaissance?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Veterans have taken it upon themselves to support each other and to advocate for change. <a href="https://heroicheartsproject.org/">The Heroic Hearts Project</a> helps veterans access psychedelic therapies and has long championed the potential benefits of plant medicine ceremony.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.heroicheartsproject.ca/">Heroic Hearts Canada</a>, which aims to provide Canadian veterans with equitable access to safe, effective and affordable psychedelic therapies, has recently partnered with University of Calgary for some <a href="https://www.ucalgary.ca/research/participate/study/16168/are-you-veteran-canadian-armed-forces-have-you-investigated-working-psychedelics-legally">important observational research</a>.</p>
<h2>Faster progress to medical use</h2>
<p>The time lag from drug discovery to patient care is often decades, prompting the expression “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s41231-019-0050-7">valley of death</a>” to refer to the gap between bench science and bedside care. </p>
<p>Given the real mental health needs of Canadian veterans, and the known limits on effectiveness for current standards of care, we must aim for quicker progress towards medical use, <a href="https://www.unodc.org/res/WDR-2023/WDR23_B3_CH2_psychedelics.pdf">as both the United States and Australia have done</a>. However, this progress must not be at the expense of safety and quality, and definitely not simply for commercialization. </p>
<p>Thought needs to be given to the development, evaluation and quality assurance of accessible programs for veteran-centred care, with Veterans’ voices at the table. It is time for more emphasis on psychedelics-related <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychres.2019.04.025">implementation science</a>, the study of methods to promote the uptake (and identify barriers) of research findings into routine clinical use in order to improve effectiveness of health services.</p>
<p>There is <a href="https://healthsci.queensu.ca/source/Psychedelics%2520Research/Psychedelic%2520Medicine%2520Report%2520-%2520Final.pdf">robust and mounting evidence to support regulatory approval for MDMA and psilocybin-assisted therapies</a>. Their availability and uptake by clinicians and the public is only a matter of time. </p>
<h2>The need for more diverse research</h2>
<p>Research funds now are best allocated towards large Phase 3 trials that treat wider cross-sections of the veteran community, to begin to assess the safety and efficacy of interventions such as the naturally ocurring and culturally significant psychedelic compounds <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00952990.2023.2220874">ibogaine and 5-MeO-DMT</a> <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/2d897baa8a8203979eaf5ee7deb9037e/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y">and ayahuasca</a>, and to invest in knowledge translation, program evaluation and training researchers and clinicians. </p>
<p>Apart from new biomedical research, it is time we recognized the widespread personal use of psychedelics, including among veterans, and develop safer use guidelines for psychedelics like those in place <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/substance-use/alcohol/low-risk-alcohol-drinking-guidelines.html">for alcohol</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03404169">cannabis</a>.</p>
<p>While the Senate report does not mention cannabis, it is worth noting that veterans in Canada have been <a href="https://dimensionsretreats.com/dimensions-retreats-algonquin-elevate-veterans-only/#:%7E:text=The%2520program%2520does%2520not%2520include,mind%252Dbody%2520practices%2520in%2520nature.">approved for treatment with cannabis-assisted therapy</a>. </p>
<p>This includes the use of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0269881121997099">cannabis as a psychedelic</a> and mimics the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40429-021-00401-8">preparation-session-integration protocols</a> of psychedelic therapies. This intervention is also worth rapid evaluation and possible expansion. </p>
<p>Given the pressing needs of Canadian veterans and the limitations of our current tools, the need for research on psychedelic therapies, as well as for timely and equitable access, is urgent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ron Shore worked for, and consulted to Dimensions Health Centres in 2021 and 2022; he continues to own shares in the company.</span></em></p>One in seven Canadian veterans is living with PTSD. Developing a psychedelics research program for veterans should be a public health priority.Ron Shore, Research Scientist, Queen's Health Sciences and Assistant Professor, Department of Psychiatry, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155752023-12-12T18:09:39Z2023-12-12T18:09:39ZHow to assess the carbon footprint of a war<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565190/original/file-20231212-27-xcx3jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C4%2C3095%2C1740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dubaiuae-nov-23-2023-shot-f16-2399267237">Tifa.Shoair / shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We know that <a href="https://theconversation.com/warfare-ruins-the-environment-and-not-just-on-the-front-lines-218853">war is bad for the environment</a>, with toxic chemicals left polluting the soil and water for decades after fighting ceases. Much less obvious are the <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262047487/the-pentagon-climate-change-and-war/">carbon emissions from armed conflicts</a> and their long-term impacts on the climate.</p>
<p>Colleagues and I have estimated that the US military alone contributes more greenhouse gas emissions than <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-military-is-a-bigger-polluter-than-as-many-as-140-countries-shrinking-this-war-machine-is-a-must-119269">over 150 countries</a>, but too often discussions of the links between militaries and climate change focus only on future risks to global security in climate-affected settings. There are many tepid attempts by militaries to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01763-9">green their war machines</a> – developing <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/industry/techwatch/2022/10/11/heres-what-industry-is-offering-to-meet-armys-electric-vehicle-needs/">electric tanks</a> or navy ships run on <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629816302001">biofuels</a> – yet there is very little discussion of how they contribute to climate change, especially during war.</p>
<p>Militaries are not very transparent and it is extremely difficult to access the data needed to run comprehensive carbon emissions calculations, even in peacetime. Researchers are essentially left on their own. Using an array of methods, colleagues and I have been working to <a href="https://militaryemissions.org/">open this “black box” of wartime emissions</a> and demand transparent reporting of military emissions to the UN’s climate body, the UNFCCC. </p>
<p>Here are some of the ways militaries create emissions, and how we go about estimating them.</p>
<h2>Direct and indirect emissions</h2>
<p>Some military emissions are not necessarily specific to wartime, but dramatically increase during combat. Among the largest sources are jet fuel for planes and diesel for tanks and naval ships. </p>
<p>Other sources include weapons and ammunition manufacturing, troop deployment, housing, and feeding armies. Then there is the havoc that militaries cause by dropping bombs, including fires, smoke and rubble from damage to homes and infrastructure – all amounting to a massive “carbon war bootprint”. </p>
<p>In order to account for all of this carbon, researchers must begin with basic data surrounding direct “tailpipe” emissions, known as Scope 1 emissions. This is the carbon emitted directly from burning fuel in the engine of a plane, for instance. If we know how much fuel is consumed per kilometre by a certain type of jet plane, we can begin to estimate how much carbon is emitted by a whole fleet of those planes over a certain amount of missions. </p>
<p>Then we have emissions from heating or electricity that are an indirect result of a particular activity – emissions from burning gas to produce electricity to light up an army barracks, for instance. These are Scope 2 emissions.</p>
<p>From there, we can try to account for the complex “long tail” of indirect or embodied emissions, known as Scope 3. These are found in <a href="https://ceobs.org/report-a-framework-for-military-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reporting/">extensive military supply chains</a> and involve carbon emitted by anything from weapons manufacturing to IT and other logistics. </p>
<p>To understand combat emissions better, my colleagues have even proposed a new category, <a href="https://ceobs.org/report-a-framework-for-military-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reporting/">Scope 3 Plus</a>, which includes everything from damage caused by war to post-conflict reconstruction. For example, the emissions involved in rebuilding Gaza or Mariupol in Ukraine will be enormous. </p>
<h2>Concrete problems</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/anti.13006">most recent research</a>, looking at the US military’s use of concrete in Iraq from 2003 to 2011, illustrates some of the calculations involved. During its occupation of Baghdad, the US military laid hundreds of miles of walls as part of its urban counterinsurgency strategy. These were used to protect against the damage caused by bombs planted by insurgents, and to manage civilian and insurgent movements within the city by channelling residents through authorised roads and checkpoints. </p>
<p>However, concrete also has a massive carbon footprint, accounting for almost <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00758-4#ref-CR1">7% of global CO₂ emissions</a>. And the concrete walls in Baghdad alone – 412km (256 miles) – were longer than the distance from London to Paris. Those walls caused the emission of an estimated 200,000 tonnes of CO₂ and its equivalent in other gases (CO₂e), which is roughly equivalent to the total annual car tailpipe emissions of the UK, or the entire emissions of a small island nation. </p>
<h2>Ukraine war has the carbon footprint of Belgium</h2>
<p>In Ukraine, colleagues have begun the colossal task of adding up all the above factors and more in order to calculate the carbon effects of Russia’s invasion. This work is revolutionary as it attempts to do the very difficult task of accounting for the emissions of war in almost real time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Missile in roadside" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565195/original/file-20231212-23-zhxfvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An unexploded missile in Ukraine, April 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hostomil-reg-ukraine-apr-22-2022-2148598259">Drop of Light / shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These researchers estimate the carbon footprint of the first year of the war to be in the region of <a href="https://climatefocus.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/clim-damage-by-russia-war-12months.pdf">120 million tonnes of CO₂e</a>. That’s roughly the annual emissions of Belgium. Ammunition and explosives alone for around 2 million tonnes of CO₂e in that period – equal to almost 1 billion beef steaks (150g), or 13 billion kilometres of driving.</p>
<p>A focus on conflict emissions is particularly timely given the Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars, but also because of draft legislation concerning the 27 legal principles on the <a href="https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/draft_articles/8_7_2022.pdf">protection of the environment in relation to armed conflicts</a> (Perac) that was passed by the UN general assembly in December 2022. While Perac is a major step forward, it still has little to say about greenhouse gas emissions during conflict.</p>
<p>Governments should adhere to their obligations to transparent and accurate reporting of military emissions. People are beginning to link armed conflict, greenhouse gas emissions and environmental protection, but the topic remains under-reported and unresearched – it’s time to shine a spotlight on this hidden aspect of war.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215575/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Neimark receives funding from UK Research and Innovation, Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) - Concrete Impacts Project. </span></em></p>Researchers must track everything from bomb making or jet fuel burning to the carbon cost of post-conflict rebuilding.Benjamin Neimark, Senior Lecturer, School of Business Management, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156372023-10-13T23:27:04Z2023-10-13T23:27:04ZWhere does international law fit into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?<p>Thinking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is never easy. Yet the growing number of declarations being made highlights how important it is to consider the factors involved in making an assessment of the situation under the applicable law.</p>
<p>While the solution to any conflict is political, the fact remains that any armed conflict is covered by a specific branch of international law, the law of armed conflict, also known as international humanitarian law. </p>
<p>Although international humanitarian law is sometimes thought to lack effectiveness, we must not lose sight of the fact <a href="https://aoc.media/analyse/2022/03/10/les-conflits-armes-une-zone-de-non-droit/">that its application, however minimal</a>, ensures that civilian lives are spared.</p>
<p>As a professor at Laval University’s Faculty of Law and Scientific Director of the <a href="https://www.irsem.fr/en/index.html">Institut de recherche stratégique de l'École militaire</a> (an interdisciplinary research centre for conflict and peace studies based in Paris), I specialize in international humanitarian law and am a member of the <a href="https://www.crdh.fr/en/">Paris Human Rights Centre</a> (Research Centre for Human Rights and Humanitarian Law).</p>
<h2>Classifying the conflict</h2>
<p>The first step to be taken before making any legal analysis in international humanitarian law is to classify the situation. In the present case, this qualification is open to <a href="https://lieber.westpoint.edu/legal-context-operations-al-aqsa-flood-swords-of-iron/">debate</a>. </p>
<p>There are two possible ways to characterize it. It is either a non-international armed conflict between an armed group, Hamas, and a State, Israel, or it is an international armed conflict, owing to the situation of occupation that has prevailed in the Palestinian territories since the Six-Day War of 1967. </p>
<p>In 2012, <a href="https://access.archive-ouverte.unige.ch/access/metadata/3819f7ae-9778-49d4-8415-0563efb64f10/download">I argued that despite the unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops, the territory of the Gaza Strip remained under Israeli occupation</a>. Indeed, when in 2004 the <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/131/131-20040709-ADV-01-00-FR.pdf">International Court of Justice</a> stated that Israel was obliged to apply international humanitarian law and international human rights law by virtue of its status as occupying power in this territory, Israel unilaterally withdrew its troops from Gaza in 2005, claiming to be free of its obligations. </p>
<p>I believe that for a situation in a territory to be characterized as an occupation, and, therefore, for a power to establish its authority over it, that power needs to deploy its armed forces in the territory. However, the withdrawal of these forces does not ipso facto mean there is no more occupation, as long as the State continues to control the land, sea and air borders, to issue passports to its population and to have its currency in circulation. The fact that Israel can decide to <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-cuts-electricity-supply-to-gaza/">completely cut off the electrical power supply</a> in Gaza only confirms this. </p>
<p>Since 2005, clashes and confrontations between Hamas and Israel have taken place on a regular basis. The fact that they have reached the scale demonstrated by the events of Oct. 7 is not likely to change this assessment. </p>
<h2>So, what difference does this make?</h2>
<p>None at all.</p>
<p>Whichever way one characterizes the conflict, it goes without saying that the acts of <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule1">deliberately targeting civilians</a> and taking <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule96">hostages</a> are strictly forbidden. This is even more the case when these acts are part of a pattern of violence whose principle aim is to <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule2">spread terror among the civilian population</a>.</p>
<p>In the same vein, no matter how the conflict is qualified, it is difficult to see how <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/total-siege-of-gaza-prohibited-under-international-law-un-1abc1549">declaring a “total siege” of the Gaza Strip</a> could be consistent with international humanitarian law. The “siege” is not a notion that is expressed, in extenso, in international humanitarian law. The term siege refers to restricting the movement of people and goods in a specific area with the aim of forcing enemy forces to stop fighting. </p>
<p>While a siege, as such, is not prohibited, its effects inevitably lead to violations of international humanitarian law. For example, preventing the delivery of food or the supply of water can lead to the starvation of the population living in the territory. Using famine as a method of warfare is <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule53">prohibited</a>. Similarly, restricting or preventing the movement of people means that humanitarian personnel cannot carry out their relief work in the besieged zone. But humanitarian organizations must be allowed to deliver aid to the civilian population and, according to international humanitarian law, the parties in the conflict must even <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule55">“facilitate their passage”</a>.</p>
<p>The unleashing of violence that we are seeing, including the initial acts and the response to them, is inevitably leading to massive violations of international humanitarian law and therefore to <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule156">war crimes</a>. </p>
<p>The situation raises the legitimate question of how effective international humanitarian law is. However, if, as <a href="https://msf-crash.org/en/rony-brauman">Rony Brauman</a> of Médecins sans frontières once said, “to promote international humanitarian law is to promote war” (the comment, in itself, merits conversation), promoting respect for this law in a situation such as the one in Israel and Gaza — which, whatever its nature, is undoubtedly an armed conflict — can do no harm. On the contrary, abandoning the pursuit of respect for international humanitarian law, even when it is being abused, will only lead to more chaos.</p>
<p>In this respect, it is worth remembering that third States, i.e. States which are not parties to this armed conflict, have an obligation to <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gci-1949/article-1?activeTab=1949GCs-APs-and-commentaries">“ensure respect for international humanitarian law.”</a> This means that in all its interactions with the parties to the conflict, Canada, like every other state in the world, has a duty to remind them of their obligations under international humanitarian law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215637/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Grignon is a member of the Commission Nationale Consultative des Droits de l'Homme (France), President of the Sous-commission droit international humanitaire et action humanitaire. She is also Development Director of the Osons le DIH! partnership for the promotion and development of international humanitarian law, funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>This unleashing of violence, including the initial acts and the response to them, inevitably leads to war crimes.Julia Grignon, Professeure en droit international humanitaire, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155122023-10-13T12:32:58Z2023-10-13T12:32:58ZIsrael’s Iron Dome air defense system works well – here’s how Hamas got around it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553348/original/file-20231011-19-nefrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Israel's Iron Dome air defense system launches interceptor missiles to shoot down incoming missiles and rockets.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-iron-dome-air-defense-system-fires-to-intercept-a-news-photo/451830880">Ilia Yefimovich/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Because of its unique national security challenges, Israel has a long history of developing highly effective, state-of-the-art defense technologies and capabilities. A prime example of Israeli military strength is the <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/08/02/us-army-completes-second-iron-dome-interceptor-test/">Iron Dome air defense system</a>, which has been widely touted as the world’s <a href="https://nation.time.com/2012/11/19/iron-dome-a-missile-shield-that-works/">best defense against missiles and rockets</a>.</p>
<p>However, on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel was caught off guard by a very large-scale missile attack by the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas. The group fired <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/timeline-surprise-rocket-attack-hamas-israel/story?id=103816006">several thousand missiles</a> at a number of targets across Israel, according to reports. While exact details are not available, it is clear that a significant number of the Hamas missiles penetrated the Israeli defenses, inflicting extensive damage and casualties.</p>
<p>I am an <a href="https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=0vO6w7MAAAAJ&hl=en">aerospace engineer</a> who studies space and defense systems. There is a simple reason the Israeli defense strategy was not fully effective against the Hamas attack. To understand why, you first need to understand the basics of air defense systems.</p>
<h2>Air defense: detect, decide, disable</h2>
<p>An air defense system consists of three key components. First, there are radars to detect, identify and track incoming missiles. The range of these radars varies. Iron Dome’s radar is <a href="https://www.rtx.com/raytheon/what-we-do/integrated-air-and-missile-defense/irondome">effective over distances of 2.5 to 43.5 miles (4 to 70 km)</a>, according to its manufacturer Raytheon. Once an object has been detected by the radar, it must be assessed to determine whether it is a threat. Information such as direction and speed are used to make this determination. </p>
<p>If an object is confirmed as a threat, Iron Dome operators continue to track the object by radar. Missile speeds vary considerably, but assuming a representative speed of 3,280 feet per second (1 km/s), the defense system has at most one minute to respond to an attack.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a diagram showing the trajectory of a missile along with a radar system tracking the missile and a defensive missile intercepting the attacking missile" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490224/original/file-20221017-15359-y6n97j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fundamental elements of a missile defense system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328689008_Analysis_of_the_Optimal_Frequency_Band_for_a_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_Radar_System/download">Nguyen, Dang-An et al.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>The second major element of an air defense system is the battle control center. This component determines the appropriate way to engage a confirmed threat. It uses the continually updating radar information to determine the optimal response in terms of from where to fire interceptor missiles and how many to launch against an incoming missile.</p>
<p>The third major component is the interceptor missile itself. For Iron Dome, it is a supersonic missile with heat-seeking sensors. These sensors provide in-flight updates to the interceptor, allowing it to steer toward and close in on the threat. The interceptor uses a proximity fuse activated by a small radar to explode close to the incoming missile so that it does not have to hit it directly to disable it.</p>
<h2>Limits of missile defenses like the Iron Dome</h2>
<p>Israel has at least <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/09/world/iron-dome-israel-defense-explained-intl-dg/index.html">10 Iron Dome batteries in operation</a>, each containing 60 to 80 interceptor missiles. Each of those missiles costs about US$60,000. In previous attacks involving smaller numbers of missiles and rockets, Iron Dome was 90% effective against a range of threats.</p>
<p>So, why was the system less effective against the recent Hamas attacks?</p>
<p>It is a simple question of numbers. Hamas fired several thousand missiles, and Israel had less than a thousand interceptors in the field ready to counter them. Even if Iron Dome was 100% effective against the incoming threats, the very large number of the Hamas missiles meant some were going to get through. </p>
<p>The Hamas attacks illustrate very clearly that even the best air defense systems can be overwhelmed if they are overmatched by the number of threats they have to counter.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How Iron Dome works.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The Israeli missile defense has been built up over many years, with high levels of financial investment. How could Hamas afford to overwhelm it? Again, it all comes down to numbers. The missiles fired by Hamas cost about $600 each, and so they are about 100 times less expensive than the Iron Dome interceptors. The total cost to Israel of firing all of its interceptors is around $48 million. If Hamas fired 5,000 missiles, the cost would be only $3 million. </p>
<p>Thus, in a carefully planned and executed strategy, Hamas accumulated over time a large number of relatively inexpensive missiles that it knew would overwhelm the Iron Dome defensive capabilities. Unfortunately for Israel, the Hamas attack represents a very clear example of military asymmetry: a low-cost, less-capable approach was able to defeat a more expensive, high-technology system.</p>
<h2>Future air defense systems, including high-energy lasers</h2>
<p>The Hamas attack will have repercussions for all of the world’s major military powers. It clearly illustrates the need for air defense systems that are much more effective in two important ways. First, there is the need for a much deeper arsenal of defensive weapons that can address very large numbers of missile threats. Second, the cost per defensive weapon needs to be reduced significantly. </p>
<p>This episode is likely to accelerate the development and deployment of <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11882">directed energy air defense systems</a> based on high-energy lasers and high-power microwaves. These devices are sometimes described as having an “<a href="https://www.militaryaerospace.com/home/article/14280611/highenergy-laser-weapons-ready-for-the-front-lines">infinite magazine</a>,” because they have a relatively low cost per shot fired and can keep firing as long as they are supplied with electrical power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Boyd receives funding from the U.S. Department of Defense and Lockheed-Martin Corporation. </span></em></p>If Israel’s Iron Dome is the best air defense system in the world, how did so many Hamas missiles get through? An aerospace engineer explains it’s a game of numbers.Iain Boyd, Director, Center for National Security Initiatives, and Professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125682023-09-07T22:08:14Z2023-09-07T22:08:14Z‘Male soldiers can’t help themselves’ is among many rape myths that need debunking<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/male-soldiers-cant-help-themselves-is-among-many-rape-myths-that-need-debunking" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/march-2023/judges-and-rape-myths/">Rape myths</a> are stereotypes and false beliefs associated with all forms of sexual assault. Popular rape myths include “she was asking for it,” “good guys don’t commit rape,” and “women lie about being raped to ruin men’s reputations.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/10/nsw-study-rape-sexual-assault-harassment-trials-myths-victims-stereotypes">Recent research on sexual assault trials</a> in Australia found that defence lawyers rely on, and reproduce, rape myths. But until now, it wasn’t clear if some rape myths are unique to sexual violence in the military. </p>
<p>Identifying military rape myths is essential to help reduce sexual violence committed by service members against their fellow soldiers. </p>
<p>Research focused on civilian rape myths has revealed that when rape myths are accepted, there are increased negative perceptions of rape survivors, <a href="https://theconversation.com/jurors-who-believe-rape-myths-contribute-to-dismal-conviction-rates-but-judge-only-trials-wont-solve-the-problem-205066">lower conviction rates</a>, shorter sentences for perpetrators and more police reports that reproduce rape myths. </p>
<p>It makes sense that there might be rape myths unique to the military. Sexual violence perpetrated internally in the military is distinct from civilian sexual violence in terms of how often it happens, how it can impact victims’ careers, the military justice system and public trust of — even reverence for — military institutions.</p>
<h2>The scourge of military sexual assault</h2>
<p>Sexual violence within most western military forces has been increasing despite increased attention and resources devoted to the problem. </p>
<p>In Australia, female service members have a one in four chance of being harassed or assaulted over the course of their careers. The United States Army saw a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/sexual-assault-military-report/index.html">26 per cent increase in sexual assaults</a> between 2020 and 2021. </p>
<p>The Canadian government recently <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9403493/military-sexual-misconduct-class-action-deadline/">extended the deadline for submitting claims to a sexual misconduct class-action lawsuit</a> worth almost $1 billion after more than 19,000 victims came forward with claims. </p>
<p>There is strong evidence that available data on military sexual violence is merely the tip of the iceberg. Research from several countries indicates that <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1318-1.html">more than 80 per cent of victims do not report their assault</a>.</p>
<h2>Three military rape myths</h2>
<p>To better understand if there are specific rape myths associated with public conversations about military sexual violence, I studied 30 years of media coverage of the problem in three countries: the U.S., Canada and Australia. </p>
<p>I published the results of this work in a recent book, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/good-soldiers-dont-rape/249E4FAF0D8C067E473B9C0404211F8E"><em>Good Soldiers Don’t Rape: The Stories We Tell About Military Sexual Violence</em></a>. </p>
<p>One of my biggest findings is that there are distinct military rape myths that pervade international media coverage. Here are three of the biggest ones:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Sexual violence is a natural, if unfortunate, by-product of a military culture that requires tough, combat-ready “good” warriors.</p></li>
<li><p>Women who choose to join the military should know that sexual violence is a risk because men can’t be expected to control their urges, particularly in high-pressure situations.</p></li>
<li><p>Only military leaders know how to handle the problem of sexual violence. The public often misunderstands or overreacts to the unique nature of sexual violence within defence forces. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>To be clear, this isn’t merely a media coverage problem. The media coverage reflects public conversations, including statements by military leaders and opinion pieces by prominent figures.</p>
<h2>‘Men will be men’ justification</h2>
<p>An example was in 2015, when Gen. Tom Lawson, then the Canadian chief of the defence staff, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-sexual-misconduct-due-to-biological-wiring-gen-tom-lawson-tells-cbc-news-1.3115993">suggested sexual violence would naturally be present in any institution dominated by men</a>. </p>
<p>He claimed that male soldiers are “biologically wired in a certain way … (to) believe it is a reasonable thing to press themselves and their desires on others.”</p>
<p>Another example was in 2012 in Australia, when a former Air Force pilot claimed that you cannot expect <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-will-be-women-in-foxholes-20120106-1po7m.html#ixzz1ijDYt8Uj">“testosterone to remain dormant” when men and women are “at the peak of their sexuality, then training them to be warriors … and putting them together in a semi-cloistered environment.”</a> </p>
<p>Military rape myths are similar to the rape myths associated with civilian sexual assault. Both sets of rape myths create a series of excuses that remove institutional accountability, evade the acknowledgement of a systemic and persistent institutional problem and diffuse or weaken efforts to address the problem. </p>
<h2>Gaslighting victims</h2>
<p>They also shift the blame of the problem away from perpetrators and military institutions and gaslight victims and the public.</p>
<p>They send a message that internal military sexual violence should be expected and that women’s presence in the institution is the problem, not perpetrators. Military rape myths also call into question issues raised by victims and the public by portraying concerns about military sexual violence as poorly informed or overreactions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-taking-canadas-armed-forces-so-long-to-tackle-sexual-misconduct-196869">What's taking Canada's Armed Forces so long to tackle sexual misconduct?</a>
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<p>Identifying rape myths is a first step towards unravelling them and encouraging public conversations that avoid perpetuating stereotypes that let military forces and perpetrators off the hook.</p>
<p>Dispelling rape myths should be a top priority for all national armed forces, especially like those in the U.S., Canada and Australia that claim to be implementing cultural reform aimed at addressing systemic forms of discrimination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212568/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Megan MacKenzie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rape myths dominate international media coverage of internal military sexual violence.Megan MacKenzie, Professor and Simons Chair in International Law and Human Security, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1854482023-08-20T09:27:05Z2023-08-20T09:27:05ZCivilian support for military coups is rising in parts of Africa: why the reasons matter<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543212/original/file-20230817-25-4iakmh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The clamour for coups among citizens is rising</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the night of <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/142678/togo-who-killed-sylvanus-olympio-the-father-of-togolese-independence/">13 January 1963</a>, Togo’s President Sylvanus Olympio was shot dead by rebels in the first military coup staged in Africa. A long list, as shown below, was to come. From the 1960s to the end of the millennium, there were an average of four military coups a year on the continent. By the end of the 1990s this phenomenon seemed to have faded away. </p>
<p>But since August 2020 six African nations have suffered seven coups or attempted coups. </p>
<p>First came <a href="https://theconversation.com/malis-predictable-coup-leaves-an-unclear-path-to-civilian-rule-144774">Mali</a>, in August 2020. The military took advantage of social unrest and insecurity caused by the activities of violent extremists. Mali had two coups or attempts in a nine-month span. </p>
<p>In April 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-signs-of-a-true-transition-in-chad-a-year-after-idriss-debys-death-181203">Chad</a> followed the same path. In March 2021, there was a coup attempt in Niger, and in September 2021 it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/guinea-coup-highlights-the-weaknesses-of-west-africas-regional-body-167650">Guinea’s</a> turn. A month later, it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/sudan-the-longer-the-conflict-lasts-the-higher-the-risk-of-a-regional-war-204931">Sudan</a>. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/jihadism-and-military-takeovers-in-west-africa-burkina-faso-coup-highlights-the-links-193972">Burkina Faso</a>, an attack in November 2021 led to the coup in January 2022. </p>
<p>More recently, a coup was <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-the-coup-in-niger-an-expert-outlines-three-driving-factors-210721">launched in Niger</a>, deposing President Mohamed Bazoum. Two days later, General Abdourahamane Tchiani declared himself the leader of Niger. </p>
<p>All together, that’s more than <a href="https://defishumanitaires.com/en/2019/11/27/the-sahel-is-a-demographic-bomb/">100 million people</a> being ruled by the military after power was seized violently. All are in the Sahel. This has alerted governments in the region.</p>
<p>Researchers, analysts and journalists have pointed to mismanagement, incompetence, corruption, economic crisis and state weakness as the main factors propelling military coups all over the world and, of course, in Africa. State weakness is a factor in the recent instances in Africa. They have happened partly because of governments’ failure to stem the spread of groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State all over the Sahel. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/niger-coup-why-an-ecowas-led-military-intervention-is-unlikely-211136">Niger coup: why an Ecowas-led military intervention is unlikely</a>
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<p>But there are two intertwined characteristics that differentiate Africa from the rest of the world. One is the public support of many citizens on the streets when there is a coup. The other is the society’s rising support for military rule as a form of government. Popular support for military rule has grown in the last 20 years.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02589346.2022.2072582">research</a> explored the reasons for this. I used survey data to examine whether support for nondemocratic rule was mainly due to poor institutional and economic performance or to an existing so-called authoritarian personality and culture in the region. This type of personality refers to values existing in certain societies that make them more prone to embrace authoritarian forms of government. </p>
<p>This distinction is relevant because if the reason for military rule support is cultural, then societies will continue to endorse authoritarian regimes. If the reason is institutional performance, then as long as incumbent governments perform efficiently, both politically and economically, democratic support will overcome authoritarian support.</p>
<h2>Citizen discontent</h2>
<p>I carried out a quantitative analysis using <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/">Afrobarometer</a> survey data gathered from 37 African countries, both from North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis looked for underlying factors propelling the rise in support for military rule. </p>
<p>Respondents were asked about the extent of their support for military rule as a form of government plus a number of other potential explanatory questions such as perception of corruption, governing and opposition parties performance, economy evaluation and socio-demographic issues like their level of education.</p>
<p>The data shows that from 2000 to the present, the level of support for military rule as a form of government has doubled, from 11.6% of people supporting “much” or “very much” military rule as a form of government to 22.3%. Of the 37 countries <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege">analysed</a>, there were 11 where support for military dictatorship was decreasing and 26 where this figure was on the rise. The latest <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/articles/young-africans-show-tolerance-for-military-intervention-a-wake-up-call-afrobarometer-ceo-tells-german-leaders/#:%7E:text=Afrobarometer%20findings%20from%2028%20African,if%20elected%20leaders%20abuse%20power.">Afrobarometer data</a> shows that support for democracy has fallen in the last year. Out of 38 countries, only four show decreasing support for military rule since 2000, whereas 34 show higher support for higher military rule than in 2000.</p>
<p><a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege">Support</a> for military rule was higher in “partly free” and “not free” countries than in “free” countries. (They were categorised according to the <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world">Freedom House</a> index.) </p>
<p>But there were some exceptions. In <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege">South Africa</a>, which is a constitutional democracy with regular elections, one in three South Africans supported military rule as a form of government. In democratic Namibia the level of support showed that one in four Namibians supported military rule.</p>
<h2>Reasons to support military rule</h2>
<p>The analysis points to three conclusions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>In sub-Saharan Africa, the legitimacy of military rule is mainly based on institutional performance and economic management. These are weakened by jihadist organisations rapidly expanding throughout the region. State institutions are not able to tackle their expansion throughout the region.</p></li>
<li><p>In North Africa, institutional performance plays a role but authoritarian personality plays a larger role in the support for military rule.</p></li>
<li><p>Education seems to be an antidote against authoritarianism. Those with higher level of education, according to survey data, show higher level of democratic endorsement.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The study’s findings suggest that people in sub-Saharan Africa are fed up with their governments for many reasons, including security threats, humanitarian disasters and lack of prospects. Waiting for the next elections to take place to change government does not seem to them to be a good option. Opposition parties do not seem to enjoy a better image. For the survey respondents, the solution appears to be to welcome the military to intervene.</p>
<p>If citizens perceive that politicians don’t care about them, this will invite the military to continue overthrowing civil governments, with society publicly legitimising their intervention in politics. </p>
<p>If military, political and economic solutions are not found, military coups in the region will increase and people will continue gathering on the streets to welcome them. Niger’s recent coup may not be the last one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos García Rivero is Research Fellow at the Centre for International and Comparative Politics, at Stellenbosch University, South Africa. </span></em></p>Citizen expectations of governments are not being met by most elected leaders.Carlos García Rivero, Associate Professor, Universitat de ValènciaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093322023-07-17T20:02:35Z2023-07-17T20:02:35ZRecruiting for the modern military: new research examines why people choose to serve and who makes the ideal soldier<p>The recent investigations into alleged war crimes committed by <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-australian-charged-with-war-crime-of-murder-in-afghanistan-202148">Australian</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66106980">UK special forces</a> in Afghanistan have raised urgent questions about the conduct of people serving in the military. </p>
<p>As militaries rethink their structures and the complex role they play in society, they also need to examime what types of people they should be recruiting. Who are the modern soldiers, and why do they choose to serve?</p>
<p>Some of these answers can be found in existing research that defence forces have conducted over the last half century. With the end of conscription in many Western nations, volunteer militaries began to commission studies looking at why people enlist. The findings were meant to make <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3100/RR3107/RAND_RR3107.pdf">recruitment campaigns more effective</a>. </p>
<p>We recently conducted a research project funded by the Australian Defence Force that examined these studies through a new lens of behavioural science. </p>
<p>The aim of this study went beyond just increasing recruitment numbers, though. Understanding people’s motivations for enlisting can also reveal a lot about the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/48609218">suitability of recruits for the military</a>, given the new demands they face in these roles. </p>
<p>We found that in contrast to the usual portrayal of military recruits as Hollywood- inspired, hyper-masculine mercenary types, many people enlist because of the duty of care for others and the value they place in military service. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-defence-force-must-ensure-the-findings-against-ben-roberts-smith-are-not-the-end-of-the-story-206749">Australian Defence Force must ensure the findings against Ben Roberts-Smith are not the end of the story</a>
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<h2>Recruiting for a new model military</h2>
<p>The role of militaries has changed in recent years. Today’s threats are frequently not active conflicts between nations, but rather ethnic strife within nations, terrorism and cyber warfare. Peacekeeping and humanitarian missions have also become more common than conventional warfare, with military forces frequently involved in disaster relief and recovery efforts. </p>
<p>The lines around the purpose of a military are now increasingly blurred. As a result, public sentiment and the battle for hearts and minds has become even more important, especially as technology and social media allow domestic audiences to be better informed about what happens in the field. </p>
<p>The now-deceased <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2000-05-01/postmodern-military-armed-forces-after-cold-war">sociologist Charles Moskos</a> called this the “postmodern military”. It is much leaner and more professional than the armed forces of the past, tasked with new kinds of missions, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0030438708000045">oftentimes without widespread public support</a>. </p>
<p>New model armies need new model recruits. So, what drives a person to want to voluntarily enlist?</p>
<p>We found the voluminous evidence can be neatly captured by two separate dimensions: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>intrinsic versus extrinsic motivations</p></li>
<li><p>and pro-social versus self-serving motivations. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Serving for thrills and adventure</h2>
<p><a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2000-13324-007">Intrinsically motivated people</a> do things for their own sake. For example, they might like travelling for the journey itself, rather than to reach a destination. </p>
<p>Independent of outcomes, some recruits are motivated to serve in the military by the idea of service itself. This could include having an inherent interest in the military, learning how to use high-tech machinery and a sense of adventure.</p>
<p><a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11054728">Melbourne University researcher Sara Meger</a> found many foreign fighters have been attracted to international flashpoints like Ukraine because of thrill-seeking. </p>
<p>Some people also sign up for the military out of a personal psychological need for stimulation. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-6494.1983.tb00856.x">One military study</a> shows volunteer soldiers have a greater tolerance for risk-taking than non-volunteers. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fit-for-service-why-the-adf-needs-to-move-with-society-to-retain-the-public-trust-159924">'Fit for service': Why the ADF needs to move with society to retain the public trust</a>
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<h2>Service as a means to an end</h2>
<p>On the other end of this spectrum are those who are driven purely by extrinsic motives. This means doing something in the pursuit of a separate goal, such as financial compensation, or recognition earned through medals. </p>
<p>In Meger’s interviews with foreign fighters on both sides of the Ukraine conflict, she found they were often extrinsically driven by ideology. Serving was a way to support a desired political outcome, <a href="https://hir.harvard.edu/the-latest-in-a-long-line-ukraines-international-legion-and-a-history-of-foreign-fighters/">such as Ukraine’s self-determination</a>. </p>
<p>Other British and American fighters were <a href="https://hir.harvard.edu/the-latest-in-a-long-line-ukraines-international-legion-and-a-history-of-foreign-fighters/">driven</a> by the goal of protecting Ukraine – and the Western world generally – from what they saw as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to freedom. </p>
<p>These people consider themselves freedom fighters, like <a href="https://www.thecollector.com/che-guevara-freedom-fighter-or-myth/">Che Guevara</a>, and will accept extraordinary risks and hardship. They often have military backgrounds, too.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1679513795226476544"}"></div></p>
<h2>Serving for others vs for oneself</h2>
<p>Some soldiers are driven for a pro-social reason, as in they are serving for others. These people can be motivated by altruistic reasons, such as defending one’s country and loved ones at great risk and cost to themselves. Some serve as a way to provide better support to their families. </p>
<p>On the other end of the scale are those with self-interested motivations to serve. These can include personal advancement, income, training and career opportunities. Escapism is another common motive found – many serve to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/milmed/article-abstract/153/6/325/4846832?redirectedFrom=fulltext">cope with relationship breakdown or financial or family stress</a>.</p>
<p>Extrinsic motivation and self-interest are <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-00266-003?doi=1">not the same</a>. Freedom fighters, for example, fight for an extrinsic outcome (winning a war), but might do so out of consideration for others (those who win their freedom). </p>
<p>And intrinsic motivations are not always pro-social. Adventure seekers care about fighting rather than winning, for purely selfish reasons. </p>
<p>Put together, these motivations reveal four service archetypes: the volunteer, the freedom fighter, the professional and the mercenary. But the research suggests most people will have a variety of motivations and lie somewhere between the extremes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536715/original/file-20230711-25-7uc6gy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536715/original/file-20230711-25-7uc6gy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536715/original/file-20230711-25-7uc6gy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536715/original/file-20230711-25-7uc6gy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536715/original/file-20230711-25-7uc6gy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536715/original/file-20230711-25-7uc6gy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536715/original/file-20230711-25-7uc6gy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The four archetypes of soldiers, clockwise from top right: Che Guevara, Roger Moore as Lieutenant Shawn Fynn in Wild Geese, General George S. Patton, Chinese-Australian soldier Billy Sing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So, who is the ideal soldier?</h2>
<p>How do these insights help the military? Defence forces have much to gain from recruiting volunteers with the right mix of intrinsic and pro-social motivations. </p>
<p>The psychological evidence suggests that people with intrinsic motivations <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2014-03897-001">lead to a better quality of service</a>. They are motivated by discipline, technical proficiency and professionalism, meaning they are more likely to perform in line with what society expects of them. </p>
<p>But the evidence also suggests these motivations can be “crowded out” when excessive rewards are offered. This means providing an extrinsic incentive for something <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-6419.00150">reduces the intrinsic motivation for it</a>. </p>
<p>For instance, British social policy pioneer <a href="https://www.sapiens.org/culture/blood-plasma-donation-gift-commodity/">Richard Titmuss’s</a> well-regarded analysis suggests that paying people for blood donations takes away their opportunity to demonstrate public spiritedness. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/job.322?casa_token=qZfnt-Rns0wAAAAA:oLhi0Z161_W1-P8n6tDKOVMx4PDHMz5Wvz3ZQTEQUxQ8Ojlz49djJ2r7A6ko1ruqkYi2Kxvhm8sknjA8">This was later confirmed in empircal studies</a>.</p>
<p>On the other spectrum, pro-socially oriented people are well-suited for humanitarian missions or in interactions with civilians caught up in conflict.</p>
<p>Multinational companies and organisations are already using this type of behavioural scientific research to find the best candidates for their workforce. As militaries rethink their purpose to keep up with the times, they can learn much from mulitnationals on this front. </p>
<p>In the postmodern military, recruiting isn’t just about filling the ranks anymore, it’s about finding the right fit for an increasingly challenging profession.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hoffmann receives funding from the Australian Defence Force.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lena Wang receives funding from the Australian Defence Force.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maria Beamond receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence. </span></em></p>Understanding people’s motivations for enlisting can also reveal a lot about the suitability of recruits for the military, given the new demands they face in these roles.Robert Hoffmann, Professor of Economics, Tasmanian Behavioural Lab, University of TasmaniaLena Wang, Associate Professor in Management, RMIT UniversityMaria Teresa Beamond, Lecturer in Global Human Resources Management, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2096652023-07-13T13:09:08Z2023-07-13T13:09:08Z3 takeaways from the NATO summit – and where it leaves the military alliance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537176/original/file-20230712-20641-prm6on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C47%2C3185%2C2079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Presidents Biden and Zelenskyy take to the stage.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NATOSummitBiden/cb891a9717f64b1ab201bde86fefcec8/photo?Query=nato&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=35514&currentItemNo=73">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The leaders of the 31 nations that comprise NATO made their way home on July 12, 2023, after concluding <a href="https://apnews.com/article/nato-summit-vilnius-lithuania-ukraine-6eff9f614dd01746280e43f0473b1a26">two days of highest-level diplomatic meetings</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius wasn’t just all talk – it provided an opportunity for the Western military alliance to reassess its purpose, size and structure in light of more than a year of war in Ukraine.</em></p>
<p><em>John R. Deni, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SKtbkskAAAAJ&hl=en">research professor</a> at the U.S. Army War College and author of “<a href="https://librarycatalog.ecu.edu/catalog/4809141">NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense</a>,” was in Vilnius to attend a public forum on the side of the summit. The Conversation asked him for his main takeaways form the leaders’ meeting and what it suggests about the future of NATO.</em></p>
<h2>Ukraine gets some of what it wants</h2>
<p>The headlines from the summit were largely about what Ukraine really wanted – a clearly defined timeline to membership – and how <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66183066">NATO members fell short</a> on promising that.</p>
<p>But I think that downplays what <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-offer-ukraine-security-framework-zelenskiy-asks-nato-allies-more-arms-2023-07-12/">Ukraine did achieve</a>. Germany, France and Norway pledged a significant increase in aid to Kyiv in the shape of tanks, long-range missiles and other military assistance that should be useful in Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive against Russia. Ukraine also secured further commitments to nonlethal assistance and training from NATO members.</p>
<p>And even on the issue of membership, there was progress that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy can take back to Kyiv. NATO members confirmed their commitment that Ukraine would become a member at some point and agreed to <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/nato-agrees-to-remove-membership-action-plan-requirement-for-kyiv-s-membership-ukraine/2941486">dispense with the the requirement of a memberhsip action plan</a>. The alliance similarly waived the membership action plan during Finland’s and Sweden’s bids, putting Ukraine in a select group of favored nations.</p>
<p>The summit also saw the first meeting of the <a href="https://time.com/6293378/nato-ukraine-council/">newly formed NATO-Ukraine Council</a> – a body formed to further signal NATO’s commitment to Ukraine membership.</p>
<p>Of course, this still fell short of Zelenskyy’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/nato-stops-short-of-ukraine-invitation-angering-zelenskyy">hopes of an “invite</a>” to NATO, or assurances that Ukraine would be accepted as a member as soon as the war is over.</p>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/07/11/ukraine-russia-live-war-updates/70401625007/">frustration on display</a> by Zelenskyy ahead of the meeting – and which I witnessed among some delegates at the public forum – appeared to dissipate during the summit itself. </p>
<p>In my view, Zelenskyy achieved all he could during the summit. Ukraine was embraced by NATO publicly and given clear shows of support and bilateral assistance from key members of the alliance. And that shouldn’t be overshadowed by some of the noises of disappointment or talk of Ukraine <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/urging-gratitude-weapons-uk-defence-minister-tells-ukraine-were-not-amazon-2023-07-12/">not showing enough “gratitude</a>” toward NATO members.</p>
<h2>Stronger with Sweden after Turkey relents</h2>
<p>Perhaps one of the biggest achievements of the summit occurred on the eve of the event itself, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/erdogan-proposes-letting-sweden-join-nato-in-exchange-for-a-path-for-turkey-to-join-the-eu">gave the green light</a> for Sweden to become NATO’s 32nd member.</p>
<p>Much like what happened with <a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-nato-and-the-evolving-new-world-order-what-small-nations-know-203278">Finland’s earlier successful bid</a>, Erdoğan had been holding out over what he perceived to be concerns over <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/sweden-supreme-court-approves-extradition-of-pkk-supporter-to-turkey/a-65854132">Sweden’s “harboring</a>” of members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK – an organization that Turkey, among others, has labeled a terrorist group.</p>
<p>Before announcing that Ankara would no longer stand in Sweden’s way, Erdoğan had suggested that his compliance on Sweden might be conditional on the European Union’s looking favorably on <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/europe/erdogan-turkey-nato-eu-sweden-intl/index.html">Ankara’s own bid to join the economic union</a>. But it appears that was just spitballing on behalf of the Turkish president, wanting to see what additional concessions he might gain for approving Sweden’s bid. It doesn’t appear that it was a serious suggestion – and would in any case be a nonstarter, as the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/10/erdogan-s-nato-sweden-blackmail-dooms-turkey-s-eu-membership/77728246-1f5c-11ee-8994-4b2d0b694a34_story.html">European Commission itself acknowledged</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A man in a dark suit waves in front of a blue screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537177/original/file-20230712-21-ho72pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537177/original/file-20230712-21-ho72pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537177/original/file-20230712-21-ho72pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537177/original/file-20230712-21-ho72pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537177/original/file-20230712-21-ho72pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537177/original/file-20230712-21-ho72pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537177/original/file-20230712-21-ho72pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrives at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LithuaniaNATOSummit/4aad3925341443d584bd65a03c0419e4/photo?Query=nato%20erdogan&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1006&currentItemNo=25">AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Erdoğan’s about-face on Sweden allowed him to look magnanimous on the international stage, but it was likely rooted in domestic politics. His opposition to the Nordic states’ ascension to NATO should, I believe, be viewed in the context of a reelection bid for the long-serving Turkish leader. Polls had him lagging behind the main Turkish opposition candidate ahead of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-held-onto-power-in-turkey-and-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206293">May presidential vote</a>. He knew that taking a nationalist line on Sweden’s and Finland’s perceived lax attitude toward enemies of the Turkish state would play well to his base. Since he won the election, there is no real need for him to oppose NATO membership for either country.</p>
<p>The episode does raise concern that NATO could be beholden to nationalist self-interest in the future – but this is always a risk in a consensus-based organization of sovereign countries. But the counterbalance is that the alliance’s allies rarely want to be seen as being out in the cold on key issues. It was notable that a day after Erdoğan’s announcement, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/11/hungary-signals-it-is-ready-to-join-turkey-in-approving-swedens-bid-for-nato-membership">signlaled that he too</a> would now greenlight Sweden’s bid.</p>
<h2>Back to adversary-based military planning</h2>
<p>The alliance also <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm">approved a pivot</a> in how it will conduct defense planning and how it views its strategic goals and objectives.</p>
<p>For the past 30 years, NATO planning has been geared around general threats rather than targeted at clear adversaries. That has now changed. The NATO <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm">allies approved a new set of defense plans</a> that embody this new approach to how the alliance will protect and defend its members’ security. </p>
<p>In short, it has gone back to framing its capabilities (what it needs) and operations (where and how it deploys resources) around the idea of alliance members’ having clear adversaries.</p>
<p>This change of direction has been underway for a while. But the meeting in Vilnius provided the first opportunity for heads of states to give the new pivot their formal approval.</p>
<p>It changes the way NATO goes about its business. I wouldn’t say NATO has entirely gone back to a Cold War mentality – but it’s certainly conducting its business more like the way it did during the Cold War. </p>
<p>When it comes to who the adversaries are, the NATO summit <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm">communiqué made it clear</a>: Russia is “the most significant and direct threat to allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.” Added to this was the ongoing threat of terrorism.</p>
<p>And despite concern over the growing military threat from China, the Asian giant is not identified in the summit communiqué as a primary military threat to NATO nations. When NATO looks at the challenges facing Europe, it doesn’t see Chinese militarism as an existential threat to members. It is in the realms of cyberspace and space-based operations where it views China’s threat. At the same time, the communiqué made clear that NATO is open to engagement with China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John R. Deni is a research professor at the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and an associate fellow at the NATO Defence College. He’s the author of NATO and Article 5. The views expressed are his own.</span></em></p>As Western leaders depart a crucial summit, a NATO scholar parses what went down.John Deni, Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational Security Studies, US Army War CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2082422023-07-09T11:35:15Z2023-07-09T11:35:15ZKenya at 60: six key moments that shaped post-colonial politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533521/original/file-20230622-8708-1flywg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenya's first president Jomo Kenyatta waves at a crowd. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Harry Benson/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Kenya celebrates 60 years of independence this year. As a political scientist who has <a href="https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/people/lynch/">studied</a> Kenya for the past 20 years, I consider a turning point from each decade that helped to shape the east African country’s post-colonial politics. I haven’t selected elections, assassinations or other moments that have enjoyed much coverage over the years. Instead, I turn to often-forgotten moments that shed light on the country’s key steps forward – and backwards – and the role of agency and institutions.</em></p>
<h2>1964: The Lanet mutiny</h2>
<p>In the 1960s and 1970s, governments across <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170808104534id_/http://www.jonathanmpowell.com/uploads/2/9/9/2/2992308/mcgowan_2003jmas_-_african_military_coups_1956-2001-_frequency_trends_and_distribution.pdf">Africa fell</a> to military coups and countercoups. These nations suffered the arbitrary and authoritarian rule of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/ethnic-inequalities-in-kenya/EAFC4455E840815B624147EE930C1C34">military leaders</a>. </p>
<p>Kenya managed to avoid this fate. A regiment based at Lanet in Nakuru did stage an unsuccessful mutiny in 1964. In response, Kenya’s first president, Jomo Kenyatta – as Kenyan political scholar <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-kenyan-politics-9780192887429?cc=us&lang=en&#">Musambayi Katumanga</a> has detailed – opted to keep the military small. He relied instead on various police units. </p>
<p>Kenyatta also “gradually altered the military’s ethnic composition”, which, at that time, was disproportionately composed of officers from Kalenjin, Kamba, Samburu and Somali communities. He increased the number of co-ethnic Kikuyu, Kenya’s largest and most economically dominant ethnic group. </p>
<p>These measures helped to ensure the military’s loyalty to the regime. But at a cost. The multiplication of security units undermined control and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-kenyan-politics-9780192887429?cc=us&lang=en&#">accountabiliy</a>. </p>
<p>The strategy of ethnic recruitment and promotion reinforced a sense of an ethnically biased state. It was a <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-kenyan-politics-9780192887429?cc=us&lang=en&#">strategy copied</a> by Kenyatta’s successor, Daniel arap Moi, after a <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/nation-prime/how-ochuka-coup-attempt-changed-kenya-1910656">coup attempt in 1982</a>. Kenya’s third president, Mwai Kibaki, also adopted it after the country’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2013/3/3/kenya-what-went-wrong-in-2007">2007/8 post-election crisis</a>.</p>
<h2>1976: The Change the Constitution Movement</h2>
<p>By the mid-1970s, Kenyatta was unwell. To prevent the automatic succession of his vice-president, Moi, a group of prominent Kikuyu politicians attempted to <a href="https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft9h4nb6fv&chunk.id=d0e2582&toc.depth=1&brand=ucpress">change the constitution</a>. Their efforts were unsuccessful. Power transferred peacefully to Moi upon Kenyatta’s death in 1978. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the attempt had three important legacies:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the military had once again been kept out of national politics </p></li>
<li><p>the new president was made acutely aware of the insecurity of his position</p></li>
<li><p>a popular sense grew of how a Kikuyu elite felt entitled to rule.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>1980: The crackdown begins</h2>
<p>For the first year or so, Moi largely followed in Kenyatta’s footsteps, or “nyayo” in Kiswahili. He blocked any real opposition but left space for broader political debate. </p>
<p>However, in 1980, Moi’s more authoritarian streak began to show. He banned the Nairobi University Students’ Organisation and deregistered the University Academic Staff Union and Kenya Civil Servants Union. He also ordered ethnicity-based associations to wind up their affairs in the interest of “national unity”. </p>
<p>Authoritarianism came to characterise the 1980s as people were required to follow in Moi’s footsteps. </p>
<h2>1990: Timothy Njoya’s new year speech</h2>
<p>In November 1991, the <a href="https://clubdeparis.org/">Paris Club of donors</a>, an informal group of western creditors, suspended US$350 million in aid to Kenya until political reforms were initiated. The following month, a constitutional amendment was rushed through parliament, paving the way for a return to multi-party elections. </p>
<p>This timeline could mistakenly be taken to suggest that it was donor pressure that forced constitutional reform. But there was already substantive pressure for multi-party politics from within Kenya. </p>
<p>A tidal change occurred at the dawn of 1990 when, in a new year speech, theologian Timothy Njoya <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=tmmTQgt0iXQC&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&dq=i+say+to+you+ethnic+politics+kenya+lynch+&ots=u7HbNNpU6Q&sig=Fc0hDJagdL31LFjKxkRkf8E4qkc&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=i%20say%20to%20you%20ethnic%20politics%20kenya%20lynch&f=false">speculated</a> on how much longer Kenya would be a one-party state. Opposition elements –- most notably, religious and civil society leaders, and politicians marginalised from the political centre –- became increasingly vocal in their demands for multi-party politics.</p>
<p>It was these domestic demands – together with the threat of suspended aid – that forced Moi’s hand and prompted a return to multi-party politics in the early 1990s. Still, Moi <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-kenyan-politics-9780192887429?cc=us&lang=en&#">sought to control</a> the transition. </p>
<h2>2005: The constitutional referendum</h2>
<p>In 2002, Kibaki and the National Rainbow Coalition ousted independence party Kanu in a landslide victory. This prompted a moment of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3518447">great optimism</a> in Kenya. </p>
<p>However, divisions soon wracked the coalition as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10246029.2005.9627591">reports emerged</a> of corruption scandals and ethnic bias. Promises of constitutional reform were watered down. Popular frustration showed when Kenyans rejected the draft constitution in the 2005 <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00020180601035674">referendum</a>.</p>
<p>The referendum and general elections that followed meant that Kenya was in intense campaign period for over two years. This elongated campaign drew attention to frustrated hopes. It also presented the government as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00020180601035674">from and for the Kikuyu</a>. </p>
<p>The referendum also increased confidence in the electoral commission. This meant that people paid relatively little attention to developments like Kibaki’s unilateral <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17531055.2019.1592326">judicial appointments</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, the referendum fostered a sense that the opposition would win the 2007 election unless it was rigged. Together with a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/67654/elections-ke-2007.pdf">problematic election</a> and history of unpunished election-related violence, these factors fuelled Kenya’s greatest post-colonial crisis. More than 1,000 people were killed and almost <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03056240903346194">700,000 displaced</a> in violence after the 2007 election.</p>
<h2>2011: A new chief justice</h2>
<p>The 2007/8 crisis paved the way for a new <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/sites/default/files/2023-03/The_Constitution_of_Kenya_2010.pdf">constitution</a> in 2010. Among other things, it devolved power to 47 new county governments. It also established a new bill of rights and created the supreme court. The latter has exclusive jurisdiction to hear and determine presidential election petitions, and determine appeals from the court of appeal. It also determines cases that involve interpretation or application of the constitution. </p>
<p>As the highest court in the land, the leadership of the supreme court is critical. It marked a turning point when Willy Mutunga –- a highly respected human rights advocate –- was appointed as the court’s first chief justice. Some criticise Mutunga for having <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17531055.2015.1029296">validated</a> Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto’s election in 2013. However, he also presided over <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/journals/SPECJU/2015/6.html">decisions</a> that protected the devolution of power and the bill of rights. And he oversaw <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/article/kenyas-democracy-hinges-strong-chief-justice">reforms and judicial learnings</a> that helped to establish a more independent court. Reforms that – together with his successor’s brave leadership – made the supreme court’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-election-court/kenyan-court-scraps-presidential-vote-kenyatta-calls-for-calm-idUSKCN1BC4A5">annulment of the August 2017 election</a> possible.</p>
<p>The lesson from these moments: individuals can make a difference for good or bad, particularly when they help to reshape the institutions that will outlive them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In recent years Gabrielle Lynch has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, and University of Warwick. </span></em></p>Jomo Kenyatta and his successor Daniel arap Moi set the tone for ethnic and authoritarian politics which Kenya has wrestled to free itself from in recent decades.Gabrielle Lynch, Professor of Comparative Politics, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084302023-06-25T13:51:56Z2023-06-25T13:51:56ZWagner’s mutiny punctured Putin’s ‘strongman’ image and exposed cracks in his rule<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533851/original/file-20230625-29-vp3n6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3387%2C2265&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Open defiance in Rostov-on-Don.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-poses-for-a-photo-in-front-of-the-wagner-group-news-photo/1259024080?adppopup=true">Feodor Larin/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Less than 24 hours after the mutiny began, it was over. </p>
<p>As the rebelling Wagner column <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/24/1184166949/wagner-group-moscow-halting-march-russia">bore down on Moscow</a>, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko <a href="https://www.rbc.ru/politics/24/06/2023/649746e59a79475d3216e36a?from=from_main_1">brokered a deal</a> under which Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to drop criminal charges against the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and allow him to seek asylum in Belarus. The departing Wagner <a href="https://meduza.io/video/2023/06/25/prigozhin-vyvel-naemnikov-chvk-vagnera-iz-rostova-na-donu">troops were given</a> a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006860">heroes’ send-off</a> by some residents of Rostov-on-Don – the southern Russian town they had taken control over without firing a shot earlier in the day.</p>
<p>Prigozhin gambled and lost. But he lives to fight another day – for now at least.</p>
<p>The events of June 24, 2023, had observers searching for the right term to describe what was going on: Was this a coup attempt, a mutiny, an insurrection?</p>
<p>Did Prigozhin seriously think that he would be able to enter Moscow? Perhaps he genuinely believed that Putin would accede to his <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/23/1184090744/russia-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-criminal-case">demand to fire Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu</a> and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov – two men that the Wagner group head has previously harshly criticized for their conduct of the war. </p>
<p>More radically, Prigozhin may have hoped that he would receive support from elements in the Russian military. Indeed, that seemed to be the case – his group encountered <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/leader-of-wagner-mercenaries-says-forces-entered-russian-city-of-rostov-facing-no-resistance#:%7E:text=Prigozhin%20claimed%20early%20Saturday%20that,'t%20fighting%20against%20children.%E2%80%9D">no resistance in taking over Rostov-on-Don</a> or heading north for some 350 miles (600 kilometers) through Voronezh and Lipetsk provinces – though they were <a href="https://defence-blog.com/russian-mercenary-claim-they-have-shot-down-another-military-helicopter/">reportedly attacked by a helicopter gunship</a>, which they shot down. Prigozhin claimed to command 25,000 troops, though the actual number may be half that figure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A smiling man in the back seat of a car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533853/original/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533853/original/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533853/original/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533853/original/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533853/original/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533853/original/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533853/original/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Head of the Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves Rostov-on-Don.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/head-of-the-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-left-the-news-photo/1259027097?adppopup=true">Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But while the mutiny was short-lived and its goals unclear, it will have lasting effects – exposing the fragility of Putin’s grip on power and his ability to lead Russia to victory over Ukraine.</p>
<h2>Putin’s impotence</h2>
<p>Prigozhin’s abortive insurrection has punctured the “strongman” image of Putin, both for world leaders and for ordinary Russians.</p>
<p>He was unable to do anything to stop Prigozhin’s rogue military unit as it seized Rostov-on-Don – where the Russian Southern Military Command is headquartered – and then sent a column of armored vehicles up the M4 highway toward Moscow. Putin was forced to <a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6067670?from=spot">make a televised address</a> at 10 a.m. local time on June 24 describing the revolt as a “stab in the back” and calling for harsh punishment of the mutineers. But it was the intervention of Belarus President Lukashenko that brought about an end to the mutiny, not any words or actions from Putin. Somewhat uncharacteristically, both Prigozhin and Putin exercised restraint and stepped back from the brink of civil war by agreeing on the compromise deal that allowed Prigozhin to escape punishment.</p>
<p><iframe id="AThA4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AThA4/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Exiled Russian political scientist Kirill Rogov <a href="https://re-russia.net/en/analytics/083/">has argued</a> that the most challenging development to Russia’s leaders may not be the mutiny itself, but the rhetoric that Prigozhin used to justify his actions. In an <a href="https://news.zerkalo.io/world/42087.html">interview released on social media</a> a day before taking control of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin argued that the Ukraine war was a mistake from the beginning, launched to benefit the personal interests of Defense Minister Shoigu and an inner circle of oligarchs. Prigozhin brushed aside all the ideological claims Putin has made about the war – the need to denazify Ukraine, the threat of NATO expansion – as just cover for self-interest. “Our holy war has turned into a racket,” he said.</p>
<p>Prigozhin’s words and actions have exposed the vulnerability of Putin’s grip on power and the hollowness of his ideological framing of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s place in the world.</p>
<h2>Nationalist discontent</h2>
<p>Putin’s constant refrain is that any opposition to his rule – whether it be from the Kyiv government or from protesters at home – is part of a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-kyiv-moscow-6ccaef3a9d9d5ccd370d70126db78c5a">Western plot to weaken Russia</a>. It is hard to imagine that his propagandists will be able to argue that Prigozhin is also a tool of the West.</p>
<p>Over the past 10 years, and especially since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin has ruthlessly deployed the coercive apparatus of the state to crush any liberal opposition. At the same time, radical ultra-nationalists – not only Prigozhin but also the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65179954">military bloggers and correspondents</a> reporting from the war zone – have been given a relatively free hand.</p>
<p>For the most part, they were kept out of state-controlled television broadcasts, but they have reached a wider Russian audience through social media channels such as Telegram, VKontakte and YouTube.</p>
<p>Prigozhin, a former convict who went on to provide catering for the Kremlin before founding the Wagner group, has seen his profile and popularity in Russia rise during the war in Ukraine. In May 2023 polling, he was <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-05-31/russian-public-support-for-putin-remains-high-despite-concerns-about-ukraine-war-poll">cited among the top 10 trusted political figures</a>.</p>
<p>It is unclear why Putin was tolerating the nationalists, Prigozhin included, as they increasingly questioned Russia’s war performance. It may be because the Russian president is ideologically aligned with them, or saw them as useful in balancing the power of the generals. Perhaps, also, Putin had come to believe his own propaganda – that nobody could be more nationalist than Putin himself and that Russia and Putin were one and the same thing – echoing presidential aide Vyacheslav Volodin’s <a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2595599">2014 comment</a>: “No Putin, no Russia”.</p>
<p>Certainly prior to the Wagner mutiny, there were growing winds of discontent among nationalists. On April 1, 2023, one group of prominent bloggers, including <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin">Igor Girkin</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Gubarev">Pavel Gubarev</a>, announced the formation of a “Club of Angry Patriots.” As Wagner soldiers marched toward Moscow on June 24, the club <a href="https://vk.com/krprus">issued a statement</a> of indirect support for Prigozhin. </p>
<p>Prigozhin might now be in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, where – theoretically at least – he can do less damage to Putin. But there are other discontents still in Moscow, and politically active.</p>
<p>Security services in Russia have begun raiding Wagner group offices, but it remains unclear what will happen to Prigozhin’s extensive business operations around the world. Wagner soldiers will be offered the chance to sign contracts with the defense ministry – if they did not take direct part in the insurrection.</p>
<h2>A lame-duck president?</h2>
<p>Putin has no one to blame but himself for the crisis. Prigozhin’s Wagner group was created with his blessing and promoted by the Russian president. It was a tool that Putin could use to further Russia’s military and economic objectives without direct political or legal accountability – initially in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine in 2014, then in Syria, Libya and <a href="https://theconversation.com/wagner-group-mercenaries-in-africa-why-there-hasnt-been-any-effective-opposition-to-drive-them-out-207318">elsewhere in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>It was not until July 2022 that Wagner was officially acknowledged to be fighting in the Ukraine war. But over the past six months, they have played an increasingly prominent role and have been rewarded with praise in the Russian media.</p>
<p>But as his prestige grew, so too did Prigozhin’s criticism of those around Putin. Starting in December 2022, he began openly challenging Shoigu. He avoided direct criticism of Putin, though in an expletive-laced tirade on May 9 – the day Russia commemorates the end of World War II – he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/head-russias-wagner-group-says-still-no-sign-promised-ammunition-2023-05-09/">complained about the lack of ammunition</a> for Wagner fighters and talked about “a happy asshole Grandfather,” in what has been taken to be a clear reference to Putin.</p>
<p>It <a href="https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/06/24/putin-konchilsia">remains a mystery</a> why Putin did not move to get rid of Prigozhin before now – one of the many mysteries of Russian politics over the past century.</p>
<p>Prigozhin has inflicted significant damage on his once all-powerful benefactor. Exiled Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/vladimir-putins-weakness-unmasked-yevgeny-prigozhins-rebellion">goes so far as to argue</a> that the failed mutiny has exposed Putin as a “lame-duck” president; likewise, sociologist Vladislav Inozemtsev <a href="https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/06/24/putin-konchilsia">asserts</a> that “Putin is finished.” </p>
<p>Such definitive judgments are premature, I feel. Putin is a tough and resilient politician who has faced down the most serious challenge to his authority since he came to power in 2000. But there can be no doubt that the aborted mutiny has exposed profound structural flaws in the Russian system of rule.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Rutland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Signs of discontent among Russian nationalists and Wagner had been growing before a column of paramilitaries began an aborted march on Moscow.Peter Rutland, Professor of Government, Wesleyan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071962023-06-19T19:56:21Z2023-06-19T19:56:21ZChronic sexual misconduct in Canada’s military is a national security threat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532270/original/file-20230615-15-uazzaw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5042%2C3026&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Defence Minister Anita Anand and Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre take questions from the media in January 2023 in Ottawa. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-taking-canadas-armed-forces-so-long-to-tackle-sexual-misconduct-196869">has a serious problem when it comes to sexual violence</a>.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-special-forces-leaders-warned-about-untouchable-soldiers-who-have-escaped-punishment-for-wrongdoing/wcm/0c9056dd-7498-46b3-a6a5-bd2b88caf774/amp/">a recent report</a>, the Canadian Special Operations Forces Command (CANSOFCOM), an elite branch of the Canadian Armed Forces, has exposed a troubling culture of reticence and double standards when it comes to addressing misconduct. </p>
<p>According to internal reviews conducted for senior leadership, certain elite groups within the command enjoy immunity, are shielded from accountability and are protected from the consequences of serious issues of misconduct. </p>
<p>Take for example the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-sexual-assault-1.6004040">sexual assault conviction of Maj. Jonathan Hamilton</a> involving retired Logistics Officer Annalise Schamuhn, the wife of retired special forces Maj. Kevin Schamuhn, who both had the courage to speak publicly about their story.</p>
<p>A judge found Hamilton guilty on six criminal counts in 2017, including unlawfully entering the Schamuhn residence and sexually assaulting Annalise Schamuhn on two separate occasions. Prior to sentencing, Maj.-Gen. Peter Dawe, a deputy commander in Kevin Schamuhn’s chain of command, submitted letters to the court in support of Hamilton.</p>
<p>In a CBC interview, Kevin Schamuhn said that when he confronted Dawe about it, Dawe admitted wanting to influence Hamilton’s sentence because he believed Hamilton was a “good guy” who deserved leniency. </p>
<p>When news of Dawe’s actions came to light four years later, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/special-forces-commander-on-leave-1.6011036">he was relieved of his command</a> and placed on paid leave.</p>
<p>But not long after, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peter-dawe-sexual-misconduct-review-1.6199670">Dawe was quietly reinstated</a> and appointed to help lead the CAF response to sexual misconduct reviews, further calling into question the integrity of the CAF complaint process and eroding trust within the ranks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a beige beret and military uniform speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Incoming commander of CANSOFCOM, Maj.-Gen. Peter Dawe, speaks at a Canadian Special Operations Forces Command change of command ceremony in Ottawa in April 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Patrick Doyle</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Untouchable soldiers</h2>
<p>It’s clear from this case and others that <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-special-forces-leaders-warned-about-untouchable-soldiers-who-have-escaped-punishment-for-wrongdoing">CANSOFCOM promotes a repressive culture</a> whereby the offender is often supported while the victim is forgotten or blamed.</p>
<p>Speaking up against injustice in the CAF can lead to harsh repercussions, producing an environment of secrets, stagnation and continuing consequences. CANSOFCOM’s mission statement includes <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/special-operations-forces-command/corporate/cansofcom-command-culture-statement.html">the “relentless pursuit of excellence</a>” but that doesn’t seem to apply when it comes to workplace violence.</p>
<p>This toxic culture is a longstanding problem. The Canadian government set aside approximately $800 million in 2019 to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/world/canada/military-sexual-misconduct-class-action.html">resolve class-action sexual assault lawsuits</a> launched by serving and retired military personnel. In fact, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sexual-misconduct-military-survey-1.3868377">more than a quarter of female members</a> in the CAF have reported sexual assault. </p>
<p>The CAF’s inability to exercise effective leadership and maintain focus is a serious obstacle to bringing about lasting change. </p>
<p>Defence Minister Anita Anand has pledged to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anita-anand-arbour-justice-1.6236969">“take on” bad behaviour</a>, but it’s clear that promise has yet to be fulfilled. In 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that the “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-doesnt-get-it-sexual-misconduct-1.6201648">CAF just doesn’t get it</a>” when it comes to sexual misconduct in its ranks, but he has since been mute on the subject. </p>
<p>Cultural improvements have yet to be achieved, even after <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/conduct-and-culture/sexual-misconduct-apology.html">Anand’s 2022 public apology</a> to a CAF member over abuse in the ranks, the transfer of sexual misconduct cases to civilian tribunals and the creation of the CAF’s Sexual Misconduct Response Centre and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/operation-honour-dnd-military-brewster-1.5779927">Operation HONOUR</a> that aims to combat sexual misconduct. That initiative still appears to be struggling to execute its mission.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a red coat with dark hair is seen from behind as she waves at a patrol ship in a harbour." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Defence Minister Anita Anand waves as HMCS Halifax departs Halifax in support of NATO in eastern Europe in March 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
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<h2>End the silence</h2>
<p>It’s time to end the silence. Trudeau, Anand and CAF leaders have the opportunity to lead the way when it comes to addressing issues of workplace bullying, harassment and sexual abuse in the organization. So why aren’t they?</p>
<p>These issues constitute real and immediate threats to our national security because they fracture trust and safety among those tasked with protecting Canada. These threats are coming from within the ranks. The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sexual-misconduct-canadian-forces-vance-mcdonald-1.5980394">endemic CAF culture of victim blaming</a> falls short of the basic principles of decency, honour and justice — and it’s time for real action. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman with brown hair and glasses adjusts her earpiece while sitting at a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marie Deschamps attends a committee on the external review into sexual misconduct and sexual harassment in the Canadian Armed Forces in Ottawa in May 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A multi-faceted strategy is needed to include victim aid, policy change, leadership responsibility and education like the one proposed by Marie Deschamps, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/sexual-misbehaviour/external-review-2015.html">the former Supreme Court justice who was appointed to conduct one of the many reviews into sexual misconduct in the CAF.</a></p>
<p>To eradicate sexual assault, the CAF must commit to transformative leadership and emphasize the dignity, respect and equality of those who serve — not those who offend. </p>
<p>The principle of “see something, say something” must not lead to negative consequences for the victim. CAF members are asked to serve and sacrifice on the battlefield, so why can’t they be protected from each other?</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sexual-misconduct-abuse-of-power-adultery-and-secrecy-what-i-witnessed-in-canadas-military-158345">Sexual misconduct, abuse of power, adultery and secrecy: What I witnessed in Canada’s military</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Public health issue</h2>
<p>Workplace violence is <a href="https://theconversation.com/workplace-bullying-should-be-treated-as-a-public-health-issue-190330">a public health issue</a>. The <a href="https://escipub.com/Articles/IJPRR/IJPRR-2020-01-1205.pdf">consequences of bullying, harassment and sexualized violence </a> at work have serious impacts on the physical and mental health of victims. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/workplace-bullying-should-be-treated-as-a-public-health-issue-190330">Workplace bullying should be treated as a public health issue</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meaningful and effective intervention is a necessary step in combating these issues, but to do so effectively, change needs to start at the top.</p>
<p>Perhaps it’s time for Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, to take on workplace violence. Tam is someone who gets things done. During the COVID-19 pandemic, she led Canada’s public health response and ensured widespread public health measures were put in place to save lives. </p>
<p>The mandate of the Public Health Agency of Canada includes <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html">identifying health risks to Canadians</a> — and workplace violence falls squarely within this purview as a threat to the health and well-being of all Canadians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207196/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Walker is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada (Member). </span></em></p>The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) has a serious problem with sexual violence. The military’s chronic and unresolved toxic culture puts the country’s national security at risk.Jason Walker, Associate Professor, Graduate Studies, Leadership and People Management, University Canada WestLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064722023-06-04T11:19:13Z2023-06-04T11:19:13ZCanadian police are becoming more militarized, and that is damaging public trust<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529850/original/file-20230602-21-9bila5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C53%2C4498%2C2942&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An Ontario Provincial Police tactical officer looks on from the top hatch of an armoured vehicle during protests against COVID-19 restrictions at the Ambassador Bridge on Feb. 12, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadian-police-are-becoming-more-militarized--and-that-is-damaging-public-trust" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.siu.on.ca/en/directors_report_details.php?drid=1201">Ejaz Choudry</a>, a 62-year-old Mississauga resident in the midst of a mental health crisis, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ejaz-choudry-no-charges-siu-peel-police-1.5976266">was shot dead</a> by Peel Regional Police’s Tactical and Rescue Unit in June 2020. Choudry’s death renewed public concern about police use of force and draws attention to the use of police tactical units to respond to incidents involving people in mental distress.</p>
<p>Interactions with tactical units can be among the most violent citizen-police encounters. These units rely on the use of military-like weapons, flashbangs, battering rams and a range of other specialized equipment. But the militarization of these police units is not a new phenomenon or trend. <a href="https://theconversation.com/rise-of-the-swat-team-routine-police-work-in-canada-is-now-militarized-90073">Canadian research</a> has highlighted concerns about the increasing use of tactical units at incidents that are regarded as more common or routine.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Police in grey tactical uniforms with helmets and face masks carry assault rifles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529444/original/file-20230531-22293-5nd0xx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529444/original/file-20230531-22293-5nd0xx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529444/original/file-20230531-22293-5nd0xx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529444/original/file-20230531-22293-5nd0xx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529444/original/file-20230531-22293-5nd0xx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529444/original/file-20230531-22293-5nd0xx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529444/original/file-20230531-22293-5nd0xx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">York Regional Police tactical officers attend the scene of a shooting at a condo building in Vaughan, Ont. on Dec. 18, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Arlyn McAdorey</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In October 2022, the Toronto Police Service released a podcast episode about its tactical unit, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xT_GjQuR7CQ">Emergency Task Force (ETF)</a>. A scene in the episode depicts two ETF officers brandishing and shooting assault rifles with a suppressor and wearing helmets reminiscent of those worn by military personnel.</p>
<p>Why are police, who are meant to ensure public safety, increasingly mirroring military units designed for warfare?</p>
<h2>Mirroring military units</h2>
<p>Most people would struggle to distinguish the Toronto Police’s ETF from a military unit. In my research I aim to understand the lived experiences of individuals who encounter police tactical units. After seeing ETF officers equipped similarly to military units, I began investigating how police are becoming more militarized.</p>
<p>My research, currently under peer-review, compared images of Toronto’s ETF to Canadian Armed Forces infantry and American and Canadian special forces units between 2008 and 2023. The research investigated whether police units adopted gear, like helmets, tactical pants and assault rifles, similar to those used by the military. The approach was premised on studying the similarities in equipment and weaponry between military special forces and police tactical units. </p>
<p>The findings show that, from 2016 onward, the Toronto Police’s ETF began to increasingly look more like military special forces units. This is concerning, as these specialized units are tasked with prosecuting wars and killing enemies, whereas the preservation of life is among the central aims of the police.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with dogs walks passed a black military style armoured vehicle on a snowy city street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529853/original/file-20230602-15-vwv8zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An armoured vehicle belonging to the Toronto Police’s Emergency Task Force in downtown Toronto on Feb. 13, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Tactics used on civilians</h2>
<p>Among the most troubling aspects of increased militarization is how police units are using military technology and tactics on civilians. Police tactical units often engage in nighttime or early morning raids, times when it is common to find family members, including children, at home. </p>
<p>There are instances where police <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/brantford-wrong-home-raid-complaint-1.6658940">raid the wrong home</a> or encounter individuals who are not <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-grandmother-police-no-knock-raid-1.5996378">involved in criminal activity</a>. The trauma from these encounters cannot be understated. Many of the citizens I have interviewed in my research indicate experiencing nightmares, insomnia, having flashbacks and being in a state of constant hypervigilance. </p>
<p>By adopting military technology and tactics, police are treating our cities and communities like theatres of war, and treating civilians as the enemy. The implied message of such militarized equipment is that the civilian population is a threat and war-like tactics are needed to respond to that threat. </p>
<p>Like other policing practices, the use of tactical units disproportionately affects racialized people, those living with mental illnesses and those in economically marginalized communities. The police-involved deaths of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ejaz-choudry-no-charges-siu-peel-police-1.5976266">Choudry</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/anthony-aust-no-charges-siu-police-1.6169873">Anthony Aust</a> and <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/we-will-never-stop-fighting-mother-whose-son-died-following-toronto-police-interaction-speaks-out-1.6281936">Taresh Ramroop</a> are reminders of the fatal consequences of militarized policing in Canada. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/rcmp-wet-suwet-en-pipeline-resistance-1.6254245">Tactical officers</a> have also been deployed in response to Indigenous land rights movements. This demonstrates how police rely on heavily militarized responses in numerous contexts, not just criminal activity. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-civil-rights-blockades-should-be-met-with-a-new-diplomacy-not-violence-132427">Indigenous civil rights blockades should be met with a new diplomacy, not violence</a>
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<p>These practices contribute to the dehumanization and criminalization of racialized people and those living in poverty. They encourage an “us vs. them” mentality and ultimately undermine the potential for <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cnmcs-plcng/cn32080-eng.pdf">community-based models of policing</a>.</p>
<p>Equipping police like military units, who are tasked with fighting wars and killing enemies, undermines the fundamental goal of policing: protecting people. It undermines public trust in the police and damages the very communities the police aim to serve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tandeep Sidhu receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). </span></em></p>Canada’s police services are becoming increasingly militarized. This undermines the fundamental aims of policing and fosters public distrust of police.Tandeep Sidhu, PhD Candidate, Sociology and Legal Studies, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2008072023-05-16T12:49:23Z2023-05-16T12:49:23ZSunzi, ‘shì’ and strategy: How to read ‘Art of War’ the way its author intended<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525249/original/file-20230509-29-n04lg9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C3%2C1020%2C774&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A copy of the 'Art of War' from a collection at the University of California, Riverside. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bluefootedbooby/370460130/">vlasta2/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the mid-1990s, I picked up the military classic “<a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/tzu-sun/the-art-of-war/9780465013272/">Art of War</a>” hoping to find insight into my new career as an officer in the United States Marine Corps. </p>
<p>I was not the only one looking for insights from the sage Sunzi, also known as Sun Tzu, who died over 2,500 years ago. “Art of War” has long been mined for an understanding of China’s strategic tradition and universal military truths. The book’s maxims, such as “know the enemy and know yourself,” are routinely quoted in military texts, as well as <a href="https://www.harpercollinsleadership.com/9780814433812/the-art-of-war-for-small-business/">business</a> and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/sun-tzu-and-the-art-of-business-9780199782918?cc=us&lang=en&">management</a> books.</p>
<p>Initially, I was disappointed. It seemed Sunzi’s advice was either common sense or in agreement with Western military classics. However, a few years later the Marine Corps trained me as a China scholar, and I spent much of my career working on <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Future-of-the-United-States-Australia-Alliance-Evolving-Security-Strategy/McDonald-Tan/p/book/9781032399874">U.S. policy in the Indo-Pacific</a> region. This deepened my desire to understand how leaders in the People’s Republic of China see the world and choose strategies. Looking for insight, I turned to classical Chinese philosophy and finally encountered concepts that helped illuminate the unique perspective of Sunzi’s “Art of War.” </p>
<p>Today, I am an academic researching <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=jHkVnDUAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">how Chinese philosophy and foreign policy intersect</a>. To comprehend “Art of War,” it helps readers to approach the text from the worldview of its author. That means reading Sunzi’s advice <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/deciphering-sun-tzu/">through the prism of classical Chinese metaphysics</a>, which is deeply shaped by the philosophy of Daoism.</p>
<h2>Daoist roots</h2>
<p>China’s intellectual tradition is rooted in <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/Warring_States_Period/">the Warring States period</a> from the 5th to 3rd century B.C.E., the era during which Sunzi is thought to have lived. Though a time of conflict, it was also a time of cultural and intellectual development that led to the rise of Daoism and Confucianism. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A weathered painting of an Asian man with a small beard and mustache, wearing a yellow and black robe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Sunzi’s writing has had a significant impact on both Chinese and foreign politics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sun-wu-style-name-changqing-better-known-as-sun-tzu-or-news-photo/1354436026?adppopup=true">Pictures From History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Confucian philosophy focuses on maintaining proper social relationships as the key to moral behavior and and social harmony. Daoism, on the other hand, is more concerned with metaphysics: trying to understand the workings of the natural world and drawing analogies about how humans should act.</p>
<p>Daoism views existence as composed of constant <a href="https://ctext.org/dao-de-jing#n11593">cycles of change</a>, in which power ebbs and flows. Meanwhile, the “Dào,” or “the way,” directs all things in nature toward fulfilling their inherent potential, like water flowing downhill.</p>
<h2>Helping nature take its course</h2>
<p>The Chinese word for this concept of “<a href="https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?p=AONE&u=googlescholar&id=GALE%7CA299257203&v=2.1&it=r&sid=AONE&asid=baeb9666">situational potential</a>” is 勢, or “shì” – the name of Chapter Five in “Art of War.” Almost every Western version translates it differently, but it is key to the military concepts Sunzi employs.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war/energy">Chapter Five</a> explains how those who are “expert at war” are not overly concerned with individual soldiers. Instead, effective leaders are able to determine the potential in the situation and put themselves in position to take advantage of it. </p>
<p>This is why later chapters spend so much time discussing geography and deployment of forces, rather than fighting techniques. One does more to damage an opponent’s potential by <a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war?searchu=attack#n20925%20%22%22">undermining their scheme</a> than by merely killing their soldiers. Sunzi <a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war/maneuvering#n20951">is concerned about long supply lines</a>, because they lower an army’s potential by making it harder to move and vulnerable to disruption. A general who understands potential can evaluate troops, terrain and scheme, then arrange the battlefield to “<a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war/attack-by-stratagem#n20926">subdue the enemy without fighting</a>.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Chinese painting of a battle scene, with soldiers in blue outfits, and some text in the upper-right corner." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Painting of a battle between Chinese and Vietnamese forces during the Qing invasion of Vietnam in 1788.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-1788-a-large-qing-army-was-sent-south-to-restore-le-m_n-news-photo/1354438408?adppopup=true">Pictures From History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In <a href="https://ctext.org/dao-de-jing#n11639">Daoist thought</a>, the correct way to manage each situation’s potential is to act with 無為, “wúwéi,” which literally translates as “nonaction.” However, the key idea is to <a href="https://ctext.org/dao-de-jing#n11655">disturb the natural order as little as possible</a>, taking the minimum action needed to allow the situation’s potential to be fulfilled. The term does not appear in “Art of War,” but a contemporary reader of Sunzi’s would have been familiar with the connection between nurturing “shì” and acting with “wúwéi.”</p>
<p>The importance of acting with “wúwéi” is illustrated by <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/mencius/">the Confucian philosopher Mengzi’s</a> story about a farmer <a href="https://ctext.org/mengzi/gong-sun-chou-i#n1630%20%22%22">who pulled on his corn stalks</a> in an attempt to help them grow tall, but killed the crop instead. One does not help corn grow by forcing it but by understanding its natural potential and acting accordingly: ensuring the soil is good, weeds are removed and water is sufficient. Actions are most effective when they nurture potential, not when they try to force it.</p>
<h2>From the battlefield to the UN</h2>
<p>In a Daoist understanding, leaders hoping to chart an effective strategy must read the situation, discover its potential, and position their armies or states in the best position to take advantage of “shì.” They act with “wúwéi” to nurture situations, rather than force, which could disturb the situation and cause chaos.</p>
<p>Therefore, in foreign policy, a decision-maker should attempt to make small policy adjustments as early as possible to slowly manage the development of the international environment. This approach is evident in Beijing’s use of “guānxì.” Meaning “relationships,” the Chinese term <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-misunderstood-business-concept-in-china-2011-2">carries a strong sense of mutual obligation</a>. </p>
<p>For example, the PRC waged a decadeslong effort to <a href="https://thechinaproject.com/2020/10/21/when-the-prc-won-the-china-seat-at-the-un/">take over the United Nations “China seat” from Taiwan</a>, where the Republic of China government had fled after Communists’ victory in the civil war. Beijing accomplished that by slowly building friendships, identifying shared strategic interests and accruing owed favors with many small states around the world, until in 1971 it had enough votes in the General Assembly.</p>
<h2>Trend-watching today</h2>
<p>The concept of “shì” also provides a lens for understanding <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-says-14-chinese-air-force-planes-crossed-taiwan-strait-median-line-2023-04-12/">the PRC’s increasing pressure on Taiwan</a>, a self-ruled island that Beijing claims is its own territory. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A night scene of a silhouetted tank with lit-up skyscrapers in the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Taiwanese tank used in previous conflicts and on display for tourists in Kinmen, Taiwan, is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the mainland city of Xiamen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/taiwanese-tank-used-in-previous-conflicts-and-on-display-news-photo/1480978289?adppopup=true">Chris McGrath/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Sunzi might say that discerning the current trend in the Taiwan Strait is more essential than conventional questions about comparative military strength. Several factors could push Taiwan closer to Beijing, including the island’s <a href="https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202303260003">loss of diplomatic allies</a> and the pull of the PRC’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/03/15/taiwans-continued-success-requires-economic-diversification-of-products-and-markets/">massive economy</a> – not to mention Beijing’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/23/the-world-according-to-xi">growing global clout</a> vis-à-vis the U.S. If so, shì is in Beijing’s favor, and a nudge to persuade the U.S. to stay out is all that is needed to keep the situation developing to the PRC’s advantage.</p>
<p>Or is the potential developing in the other direction? Such factors as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/world/asia/taiwan-china-identity.html">a growing sense of a unique Taiwanese identity</a> and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/02/beijing-economy-playbook-gdp-household-consumption/">the PRC’s troubled economic model</a> may make closer ties with the mainland less and less appealing in Taiwan. In that case, Beijing may see a need to appear strong and dominant so Taiwan will not be lulled into counting on support from Washington, D.C.</p>
<p>A surface reading of Sunzi can easily support an emphasis on troop deployments, intelligence and logistics. However, an understanding of “shì” highlights Sunzi’s emphasis on evaluating and nurturing situational potential. It is not that the former are unimportant, but a decision-maker will use them differently if the goal is to manage situational trends rather than seek decisive battle.</p>
<p>That “Art of War” continues to top <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books/5020/ref=zg_b_bs_5020_1">sales lists</a> demonstrates its lasting appeal. However, to be useful as a guide to understanding security policy and strategy, my experience in the Indo-Pacific region suggests one must dig into the principles that shaped Sunzi’s view of the world and continue to shape the view of leaders in Beijing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott D. McDonald receives funding from the Sara Scaife Foundation, Eisenhower Institute, Charles Koch Foundation, and Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. </span></em></p>The ancient Chinese text is considered a military classic, but Western readers often overlook its philosophical roots.Scott D. McDonald, Non-resident Fellow, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies; PhD Candidate, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2044062023-05-01T19:39:01Z2023-05-01T19:39:01ZCanadians have lots of reasons to be skeptical about increased defence spending<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523219/original/file-20230427-14-ib5ugv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6602%2C4002&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to the media during a visit with members of the Canadian Armed Forces at CFB Kingston in Kingston, Ont., in March 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadians-have-lots-of-reasons-to-be-skeptical-about-increased-defence-spending" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/19/canada-military-trudeau-leaked-documents/">Leaked documents</a> from the Pentagon have revealed what many suspected: Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has no intention of meeting the NATO defence spending target of two per cent of GDP. </p>
<p>The story is hardly surprising — the last time Canadians saw this level of spending was under Brian Mulroney’s Conservative government <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CA">in 1990</a>.</p>
<p>The report sparked a wave of <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/is-trudeau-surprised-nato-socks-dont-count-as-defence-spending">recriminations</a> over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeau-and-nato-the-problem-with-canadian-defence-isnt-cash-its-culture-204252">poor state</a> of Canada’s defence and security funding.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeau-and-nato-the-problem-with-canadian-defence-isnt-cash-its-culture-204252">Justin Trudeau and NATO: The problem with Canadian defence isn’t cash, it's culture</a>
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<p>Complaints about the country’s lacklustre spending has become something of a time-honoured tradition. Canadians are told they are ignorant and complacent to the dangers of the world and need to spend more.</p>
<p>But what if we have the script backwards?</p>
<p>What if the problem isn’t public ignorance, but rather a defence and security community that refuses to face some hard truths about Canadian politics? </p>
<p>What if, instead of simply chastising Canadians, we spoke candidly about what may be entirely valid reasons for skepticism? </p>
<p>Confronting these hard truths may just be the first step in building genuine public buy-in for defence spending that has eluded the country for decades.</p>
<h2>Threat inflation abounds</h2>
<p>For the last two decades, Canadians have seen a variety of defence and security figures dramatically inflate threats well beyond any reasonable point. </p>
<p>We were told Afghanistan was vital to fighting terrorism (it wasn’t), that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (they didn’t) and that fighting ISIS was the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/fighting-islamic-extremism-the-greatest-struggle-of-our-generation-john-baird-tells-commons-committee">“greatest struggle of our generation”</a> (not even close). But when the dust settles and these claims are revealed to be suspect, it’s understandable why the Canadian public might be skeptical.</p>
<p>The uncomfortable truth is that for many in the defence and security community and others who offer commentary — including journalists, politicians and pundits — there are strong incentives for dramatic language and apocalyptic visions because it drives clicks and boosts profiles.</p>
<p>But at the collective level, they can cause a credibility deficit that hurts their ability to speak to the public.</p>
<h2>Afghanistan’s lessons</h2>
<p>With a considerable cost in blood and treasure, the Afghanistan mission is a bitter memory for many Canadians. Despite these sacrifices, Canada <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24709480">never received the recognition</a> it craved from NATO allies. </p>
<p>That’s why it’s not surprising that in 2012, 69 per cent of Canadians believed the mission was <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26801526">“not worth the human and financial toll.”</a> With the Taliban’s eventual takeover of the country, that number is likely even higher.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pallbearers carry the flag-draped casket of a soldier from a Hercules transport aircraft." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523220/original/file-20230427-24-e42c9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523220/original/file-20230427-24-e42c9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523220/original/file-20230427-24-e42c9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523220/original/file-20230427-24-e42c9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523220/original/file-20230427-24-e42c9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523220/original/file-20230427-24-e42c9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523220/original/file-20230427-24-e42c9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pallbearers carry the casket of a soldier from a Hercules transport aircraft after arriving at the Halifax airport in April 2002. Pte. Richard Green died with three others after an American fighter jet mistakenly dropped a bomb on Canadian troops in Afghanistan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(CP PHOTO/Andrew Vaughan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lesson learned for a generation of Canadians is that there are limits to contributing to NATO simply to appear as a “good ally.”</p>
<p>The fact that we’ve embraced a polite <a href="https://macleans.ca/opinion/canada-utterly-failed-in-afghanistan-why-cant-we-say-this-out-loud/">national silence</a> and never had any real accountability for the failures in Afghanistan is a lingering disappointment. Now add to this a string of cringe-worthy <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-more-than-100-military-procurement-projects-facing-delays/">procurement failures</a> and utterly disgraceful <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/FEWO/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=11191061">sexual misconduct</a> in the military.</p>
<p>Is it any mystery why some question whether this system is worthy of more money?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-taking-canadas-armed-forces-so-long-to-tackle-sexual-misconduct-196869">What's taking Canada's Armed Forces so long to tackle sexual misconduct?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Cost-of-living crisis</h2>
<p>In 2022, food bank use was at an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/food-bank-canada-usage-1.6631120">all-time high</a> in Canada. Homeless encampments are an <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9357528/canada-homeless-encampments-housing-first-approach/">increasing</a> feature of our cities. And now the average rent in Toronto, the country’s largest city, has crossed the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/04/21/gta-rents-hit-record-3000-creating-a-very-alarming-situation.html">$3,000 threshold</a>. </p>
<p>The reality is that the cost-of-living crisis is a political juggernaut with no signs of abating.</p>
<p>For much of the Canadian public, this is by far the biggest priority. That leaves little bandwidth for increased defence spending.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A large grey house is seen on the high bank of a river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523222/original/file-20230427-28-wpn299.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523222/original/file-20230427-28-wpn299.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523222/original/file-20230427-28-wpn299.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523222/original/file-20230427-28-wpn299.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523222/original/file-20230427-28-wpn299.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523222/original/file-20230427-28-wpn299.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523222/original/file-20230427-28-wpn299.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">24 Sussex Drive, the prime minister’s official residence, is seen on the banks of the Ottawa River. Health and safety concerns led the National Capital Commission to move out staff.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, the prime minister’s residence is crumbling into a rat-infested, mouldy <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/24-sussex-drive-closed-as-rodent-carcasses-fill-the-walls-and-attic-documents-1.6342413">death trap</a>. The plane the prime minister uses is so old the seats were designed with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/macdougall-pm-plane-1.3834965">ashtrays in the arm rests</a>.</p>
<p>We live in a country where the taxpayer is considered sacred and any even remotely questionable spending is considered profane.</p>
<p>That means that unless it serves a very specific constituency, some spending is often not worth the risk of criticism for politicians.</p>
<h2>Addressing what matters to Canadians</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, other immediate issues like the effects of climate change are top of mind. More than 500 Canadians died from the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-heat-dome-sudden-deaths-revised-2021-1.6232758">2022 heat dome in British Columbia</a> alone. </p>
<p>Politicians and pundits can discuss cyber security all day long, but it won’t mean much to someone <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ont-storm-funding-1.6805007">whose roof was just ripped off in the latest derecho.</a> </p>
<p>If politicians can’t speak to how Canadians actually feel and experience insecurity, citizens won’t listen to them on defence and security issues.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean public buy-in for increased defence spending is impossible. But there must be political leadership that speaks candidly to the concerns and skepticism of Canadians. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1410054244191727619"}"></div></p>
<p>It means there needs to be real and meaningful progress on transparency and accountability — at all levels. It means exercising restraint and not sensationalizing every single danger in the news cycle. It means speaking to how Canadians actually feel and experience insecurity, rather than simply telling them what it means.</p>
<p>We can do all of this and more. Or we can go back to naively admonishing Canadians for not spending enough on defence and security. We already know how well that’s working out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204406/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Van Rythoven does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canadians are dubious about boosting defence spending for an array of reasons. It’s time for politicians and pundits not to admonish them, but to listen to them.Eric Van Rythoven, Instructor in Political Science, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040972023-04-28T12:46:41Z2023-04-28T12:46:41ZHow the US military used magazines to target ‘vulnerable’ groups with recruiting ads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523264/original/file-20230427-22-8gas0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C3840%2C2132&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ad agencies developed distinct ads for the U.S. military to reach different demographics over the years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-military-cadet-enjoys-classroom-training-royalty-free-image/1004304340?phrase=military%20recruiting&adppopup=true">SDI Productions via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In his forthcoming book, “Tactical Inclusion: Difference and Vulnerability in U.S. Military Advertising,” Jeremiah Favara, a communication scholar at Gonzaga University, examines military recruitment ads published in three commercial magazines between 1973 – when the federal government ended the military draft – and 2016. The three magazines are Sports Illustrated, Ebony and Cosmopolitan. In the following Q&A, Favara explains the rationale behind his book and discusses some of its key findings.</em></p>
<h2>Why did you decide to look at these ads?</h2>
<p>I chose to look at these three magazines because they allowed me to explore ads designed to reach different groups, namely white men, Black people and women.</p>
<p>Scholars have argued that content in Sports Illustrated – known for its racy swimsuit editions – has long been <a href="https://sunypress.edu/Books/T/The-Swimsuit-Issue-and-Sport2">designed to appeal to straight white men</a>. My own research for the book and other scholarship has found that straight white men have consistently been portrayed in recruiting ads as <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/enlisting-masculinity-9780199842827?cc=us&lang=en&">ideal service members</a>.</p>
<p>Ad agencies J. Walter Thompson and Bates Worldwide developed recruiting plans that singled out Sports Illustrated as one of the most effective publications for reaching a high concentration of potential recruits because of the magazine’s popularity with male readers.</p>
<p>Advertisers contracted by the military viewed Ebony as crucial for reaching Black recruits. That’s largely because Ebony sought to balance content focusing on <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315586861-4/presenting-black-middle-class-john-johnson-ebony-magazine-1945%E2%80%931974-jason-chambers">Black middle-class life</a> with content covering the fight for racial inequality in American society.</p>
<p>Recruiting plans for the Marine Corps and the Navy all sought to place ads in Ebony, especially as part of efforts to recruit more Black officers.</p>
<p>Since the 1960s, Cosmopolitan has played a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/016344399021003004">key role for advertisers</a> in reaching self-sufficient working women as a consumer market. The desired reader of Cosmo – young, straight white women seeking independence – was also an ideal target of military advertisers, particularly in the 1970s and early 1980s.</p>
<p>Following President Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, the military sought to <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Women_in_the_Military.html?id=Ea8MAAAACAAJ">decrease the numbers of military women</a> – an effort now known as the “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/j.ctt19gfk6m.10?seq=5#metadata_info_tab_contents">womanpause</a>” – and recruiting ads published in Cosmo tapered off. </p>
<h2>How were the ads in each magazine distinct?</h2>
<p>In the course of looking at more than 1,500 ads published in the three magazines between 1973 and 2016, I discovered interesting distinctions. Some themes – how much money you could make in the military, the educational benefits you could access, the sense of purpose the military could provide – were similar across the different magazines. But what was really distinct was how different ads portrayed different people as service members. </p>
<p>For instance, in the 1970s, the Army and Army Reserve placed ads in Cosmo that depicted the military as a way for young women – mostly young white women – to find careers and gain financial independence. The ads used headlines like “Did the last good job you wanted go to a man?” and “The best man doesn’t always get the job.” Text detailed the equal treatment – the same salaries, educational opportunities and chances for promotion – that military women would find in the military. The idea was to portray the Army as a unique site of opportunity for women. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Advertisement with four women wearing different military uniforms on the left." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523272/original/file-20230427-14-rcbmud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An ad in a 1973 edition of Cosmopolitan presents the military as a place where women can get a fair shot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cosmopolitan, August 1973</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, in the 1970s, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23337486.2018.1463759">ads published in Ebony</a> portrayed the military as a site of equal opportunity for Black men. A series of Navy ads talked about a “new Navy” where Black men had opportunities they wouldn’t have had 20 years prior.</p>
<p>In more recent decades, Ebony ads were less likely to use such explicit language of equal opportunities. Instead, they celebrated Black History Month by highlighting the accomplishments of exceptional Black service members from the past, such as the <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/who-were-the-montford-point-marines/">Montford Point Marines</a> and the <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/explore-and-learn/topics/blackwings/tuskegee.cfm">Tuskegee Airmen</a>. </p>
<h2>Were the magazine ads effective?</h2>
<p>While there is no way to know if the magazine ads – and not TV ads or other methods of recruiting – were directly responsible for increasing enlistments, my research for the book found that the publication of ads targeting Black recruits and women corresponded with high <a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/summary/summary.html">rates of enlistment</a> from those groups. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/summary/summary.html">Between 1973 and 2016</a>, the percentage of military women increased sevenfold, <a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/appendixd/appendixd.pdf">from 2.2% in 1973 to 15.57% in 2016</a>. In the same time frame, Black recruits were consistently overrepresented in the military compared with their share in the civilian population. For example, in 1980, 1990 and 2000, <a href="https://www.cna.org/pop-rep/2016/appendixd/appendixd.pdf">between 19% and 22% of new enlistees were Black</a> compared with roughly 12% to 14% of the civilian population.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Advertisement with two men to the right, one with his arm around the other man and his hand on the other's chest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523268/original/file-20230427-26-tbmiyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An ad that appeared in a 1976 edition of Ebony presents the Navy as a way for Black men to get ahead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ebony magazine, 1976</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To me these demographic changes show how, as recruiting ads were being designed to reach women and Black recruits, the military itself was becoming more diverse. </p>
<p>I am interested in exploring how ads created a certain vision of the military as what I call a tactically inclusive institution. By that I mean an institution that has been selectively inclusive of different groups but ultimately exploits the vulnerabilities of potential recruits and perpetuates state violence.</p>
<h2>What does it mean to be ‘vulnerable’ to military ads?</h2>
<p>The term is not one that I or other scholars initially decided to use to describe what the military does. It comes from J. Walter Thompson, an advertising agency that has been creating Marine Corps ads since 1946. In a 1973 proposal for an integrated research program for the armed forces, housed in the <a href="https://guides.library.duke.edu/jwt">J. Walter Thompson Co. archives</a>, one of the first stated objectives was to identify “vulnerable target groups.” </p>
<p>The agency considered those vulnerable to military recruiting as people already inclined to join the military and those who might have reservations but were seen as persuadable. Ad agencies and the military used the term “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X9902500304">propensity</a>” to describe these two groups. Propensity refers to the likelihood that individuals will serve in the military, regardless of whether or not they really want to join the military. </p>
<p>Drawing on an array of different scholars, such as <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/the-right-to-maim">Jasbir K. Puar</a>, <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/death-beyond-disavowal">Grace Kyungwon Hong</a>, <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/aberrations-in-black">Roderick A. Ferguson</a> and <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/normal-life-revised">Dean Spade</a>, I think of vulnerability as being at the center of military recruiting. One is deemed vulnerable to military service because of a lack of opportunities, resources, support or cultural capital that the military can promise.</p>
<h2>Is your book pro-military, anti-military or neutral?</h2>
<p>The book argues that military inclusion is a form of power that furthers state violence. I am interested in studying military inclusion and recruitment advertising in order to challenge and resist the violence of the military. However, there were moments that made me think of military inclusion in a more complicated way. During an event at the <a href="https://www.fulcolibrary.org/auburn-avenue-research-library/aarl-eresources/">Auburn Avenue Research Library</a> in Atlanta, Georgia, I heard a panel of Black women veterans talk about their experiences in the military. They spoke about how the military provided them with financial stability, a chance to see the world and the opportunity to buy a home. </p>
<p>Despite the violence of the military, it is also one of the best avenues for upward mobility for many Americans. It is this tension, between seeing military inclusion as an opportunity and as a risk and form of exploitation, that I grapple with in the book.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremiah Favara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US military’s switch to an all-volunteer force in 1973 led to a series of magazine ads that sought to portray military service as a way for women and people of color to move up in society.Jeremiah Favara, Assistant Professor of Communication Studies, Gonzaga UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.