tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/mississippi-11182/articlesMississippi – The Conversation2024-03-27T12:38:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145272024-03-27T12:38:40Z2024-03-27T12:38:40ZWhy civil rights icon Fannie Lou Hamer was ‘sick and tired of being sick and tired’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582843/original/file-20240319-28-on9v8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=791%2C43%2C2850%2C2402&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fanny Lou Hamer speaks out against Mississippi's racist voting laws on Aug. 8, 1964.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/atlantic-city-nj-mississippi-freedom-democratic-party-news-photo/515450184?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It wasn’t called voter suppression back then, but civil rights activist Fannie Lou Hamer knew exactly how <a href="https://apnews.com/article/black-voters-mississippi-suppression-election-2023-90e2b6df8e3f0f2ed4141830fa1ee8f6">white authorities</a>
in Mississippi felt about Black people voting in the 1960s.</p>
<p>At <a href="https://www.harlemworldmagazine.com/fannie-lou-hamer-malcolm-x-speak-harlem-ny-1964-video/">a rally with Malcolm X</a> in Harlem, New York, on Dec. 20, 1964, Hamer described <a href="https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2019/08/09/im-sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired-dec-20-1964/">the brutal beatings</a> she and other Black people endured in Mississippi in their fight for civil and voting rights. </p>
<p>A year earlier, <a href="https://calendar.eji.org/racial-injustice/jun/9">in June 1963</a>, Hamer and several of her friends attended a voter education training workshop in Charleston, South Carolina. On their way back to Mississippi, the bus driver called the police to remove Hamer and her colleagues from the whites-only section of the bus where they had been sitting. </p>
<p>When they stopped in Winona, Mississippi, local police were waiting and promptly arrested them for disorderly conduct. </p>
<p>While in jail, Hamer told the Harlem rally, “I began to hear the sounds of licks and I began to hear screams. I couldn’t see the people, but I could hear them. … They would call her awful names. And I would hear when she would hit the floor again.”</p>
<p>After a while, Hamer said, she saw a friend pass her cell.</p>
<p>“Her clothes had been ripped off from the shoulder down to the waist,” Hamer said. “Her hair was standing up on her head. Her mouth was swollen and bleeding. And one of her eyes looked like blood. … And then three men came to my cell.”</p>
<p>Hamer was beaten, too, and sustained injuries that left her with lifelong injuries to her eyes, kidneys and legs. The experience also left her with little choice but to fight back. And fight she did, until <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1977/03/17/fannie-hamer-civil-rights-leader-dies/e27c0980-8483-4f0f-91dd-242662b87727/">her death at the age of 59</a> on March 14, 1977.</p>
<h2>Challenging the status quo</h2>
<p>The rally in Harlem was organized to support the political party that Hamer co-founded in 1964 as part of <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/freedom-summer">Freedom Summer</a>, which saw hundreds of college students travel to Mississippi and other Southern states to help register Black people to vote. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A Black woman who is smiling and wearing a dress greets a white man wearing a business suit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1319&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551869/original/file-20231003-19-qyxgqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1319&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Civil rights activist Fannie Lou Hamer meets a member of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee in 1960.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/civil-rights-activist-and-organizer-of-the-student-news-photo/513611999?adppopup=true">Afro American Newspapers/Gado/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party was a racially integrated alternative to the state’s segregationist Democratic Party. Hamer was elected vice-chair of the party and also ran for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. In addition to Hamer’s congressional campaign, one of her party’s main goals was to block the seating of the state’s five pro-segregation U.S. congressmen. </p>
<p>In 1964, <a href="https://www.usccr.gov/files/pubs/msdelta/ch3.htm">less than 7%</a> of the state’s Black population in Mississippi was registered to vote, despite the fact that nearly 40% of the state’s population was Black.</p>
<h2>LBJ’s Southern problem</h2>
<p>Hamer’s challenge of the segregated delegation couldn’t have come at a worse time for President Lyndon Johnson. </p>
<p>Locked at the time in a reelection campaign against right-wing conservative Barry Goldwater, Johnson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jan/22/we-may-have-lost-the-south-lbj-democrats-civil-rights-act-1964-bill-moyers">feared losing</a> Southern Democratic politicians and voters in the upcoming presidential election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white man is shaking the hands of a Black man as a crowd of other men stand behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568329/original/file-20240108-19-jsmytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Lyndon B. Johnson, left, shakes hands with Martin Luther King Jr. after signing the Civil Rights Act on July 3, 1964, at the White House.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-lyndon-johnson-shakes-hands-with-the-us-clergyman-news-photo/150253569?adppopup=true">AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The fight in Mississippi erupted on the national stage when television networks broadcast Hamer’s Aug. 22, 1964, testimony before the <a href="https://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/sayitplain/flhamer.html">Democratic Convention Credentials Committee</a>, which determined who was qualified to serve as a state delegate. In her bid to get the committee to recognize her political party, Hamer talked about the second-class, often violent, treatment afforded Black people.</p>
<p>“All of this is on account of we want to register, to become first-class citizens,” <a href="https://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/sayitplain/flhamer.html">she said</a>. </p>
<p>To <a href="https://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/sayitplain/flhamer.html">prevent further testimony</a> from Hamer that would further incense Southern Democrats, Johnson immediately held an impromptu press conference that would divert network television attention away from Hamer. </p>
<p>Despite Johnson’s tactics, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/fannie-lou-hamers-dauntless-fight-for-black-americans-right-vote-180975610/">Hamer’s story</a> still spread throughout the nation in part because of a series of rallies held in Northern cities, including the one in Harlem.</p>
<p>“The truth is the only thing going to free us,” Hamer said during the speech in Harlem. “When I was testifying before the Credentials Committee, I was cut off because they hate to see what they been knowing all the time, and that’s the truth.”</p>
<h2>Sick and tired</h2>
<p>Born on Oct. 6, 1917, in Montgomery County, Mississippi, Hamer was the 20th and last child of sharecroppers Lou Ella and James Townsend. She began picking cotton at the age of 6, and she would be forced to leave school shortly afterward to help her family eke out a living. </p>
<p>“We would work 10 and 11 hours a day for three lousy dollars,” Hamer once said. </p>
<p>In 1961, while undergoing surgery to remove a uterine tumor, Hamer received a hysterectomy by a white doctor without her consent. The forced sterilization was one of the things that prompted Hamer to join the Civil Rights Movement. </p>
<p>In the summer of 1962, Hamer attended her first meeting of the <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2021/02/stunned-by-her-thunder-fannie-lou-hamer/">Student Non-Violent Coordinating Committee</a>, a civil rights group of mostly Black college students who organized nonviolent protests against racial segregation and provided voter registration training. On Aug. 31, 1962, Hamer and 17 others decided to put their training to use by trying to register to vote at the Indianola, Mississippi, courthouse. </p>
<p>Of the 18 people, 16 were not allowed to take the test required for voter registration. Only Hamer and one other were allowed to take it – and both failed. These literacy tests consisted of <a href="https://jimcrowmuseum.ferris.edu/pdfs-docs/origins/ms-littest55.pdf">reading and interpreting</a> portions of the state constitution, such as the one on habeas corpus, a constitutional right to protect a person against illegal imprisonment. </p>
<p>Dejected, the group was further harassed when local police stopped their bus and fined them $100 for an overblown charge that the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/freedomsummer-hamer/">bus was too yellow</a>.</p>
<p>The insults and constant fear of violence were examples of day-to-day life for Black people in Mississippi, a story Hamer argued was tragic, unconstitutional and sadly all too well-known.</p>
<p>“And you can always hear this long sob story,” <a href="https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2019/08/09/im-sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired-dec-20-1964/">she said</a>. “For 300 years, we’ve given them time. And I’ve been tired so long, now I am sick and tired of being sick and tired, and we want a change.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marlee Bunch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fannie Lou Hamer became one of the most respected civil rights leaders during the 1960s in part because of her resistance to racist voting laws in Mississippi.Marlee Bunch, Staff K-12 Initiatives, Office of the Chancellor, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231622024-03-08T13:37:46Z2024-03-08T13:37:46ZUAW’s Southern strategy: Union revs up drive to get workers employed by foreign automakers to join its ranks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580189/original/file-20240306-16-zhfgjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=135%2C63%2C5068%2C2506&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A UAW supporter in 2017 outside a Nissan plant in Canton, Miss., ahead of a vote the union lost.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Nissan-Union/90212afb1edb40979e133f3d7931592a/photo?Query=mississippi%20uaw&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=91&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Persuading Southern autoworkers to join a union remains one of the U.S. labor movement’s most enduring challenges, despite persistent efforts by the United Auto Workers union to organize this workforce.</p>
<p>To be sure, the UAW does have members employed by Ford and General Motors at facilities in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/general-motors-strike-united-auto-workers-uaw-f16005a7b20a6f1772947957854d1017">Kentucky, Texas, Missouri and Mississippi</a>.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-uaw-idUSKBN0TN2DE20151205/">UAW has tried and largely failed</a> to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/14/business/economy/volkswagen-chattanooga-uaw-union.html">organize workers</a> at foreign-owned companies, including Volkswagen and Nissan in Southern states, where about <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/business/uaw-jobs-south-auto/index.html">30% of all U.S. automotive jobs are located</a>.</p>
<p>But after the UAW pulled off its <a href="https://theconversation.com/united-auto-workers-union-hails-strike-ending-deals-with-automakers-that-would-raise-top-assembly-plant-hourly-pay-to-more-than-40-as-record-contracts-216432">most successful strike in a generation</a> against Detroit’s Big Three automakers, through which it won higher pay and better benefits for its members in 2023, the union is trying again to win over Southern autoworkers.</p>
<p>The UAW has <a href="https://uaw.org/uaw-announces-40-million-commitment-to-organizing-auto-and-battery-workers-over-next-two-years/">pledged to spend US$40 million through 2026</a> to expand its ranks to include more auto and electric battery workers, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/business/economy/uaw-auto-workers-union.html">including many employed in the South</a>, where the industry is <a href="https://uaw.org/we-are-the-majority-workers-at-mercedes-benzs-largest-us-plant-announce-majority-support-for-movement-to-join-uaw/">quickly gaining ground</a>.</p>
<p>Based on my five decades of experience as a <a href="https://scua.uoregon.edu/agents/people/33456">union organizer and labor historian</a>, I anticipate that, recent momentum aside, the UAW will face stiff resistance from Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and the other big foreign automakers that operate in the South. The <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/uaw-chattanooga-union-drive/">pushback is also coming from Southern politicians</a>, many of whom have expressed concern that UAW success would undermine the region’s carefully crafted approach to economic development. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The back of a worker wearing a UAW t-shirt indicating employment in Brandon, Mississippi." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580185/original/file-20240306-20-vztbm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A sign of things to come?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AutoWorkersStrikeMississippi/f5cb369d2cd245a99b3081ff2af50396/photo?Query=uaw%20alabama&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=21&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=0&vs=true">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span>
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<h2>Lauding the ‘perfect three-legged stool’</h2>
<p>After the region’s formerly robust <a href="https://doi.org/10.5744/florida/9780813037950.003.0010">textile industry imploded</a> in the 1980s and 1990s because of an influx of cheap imports, Southern business and political leaders revived the region’s manufacturing base by successfully recruiting foreign automakers. </p>
<p>The strategy of those leaders reflects what the <a href="https://www.bcatoday.org/the-united-auto-workers-labor-union-must-not-do-to-alabama/">Business Council of Alabama</a> has described as the “perfect three-legged stool for economic development.” It consists of “an eager and trainable workforce with a work ethic unparalleled anywhere in the nation,” accompanied by a “low-cost and business-friendly economic climate, and the lack of labor union activity and participation.”</p>
<p>The prospect of a low-wage and reliable workforce has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/14/automakers-investing-in-the-south-as-evs-change-the-auto-industry.html">lured the likes of Nissan, BMW</a>, Mercedes-Benz, Kia, Honda, Volkswagen and Hyundai to the South in recent decades.</p>
<p>Although many of those companies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-ig-metall-agree-wage-deal-2021-04-13/">negotiate constructively</a> with unions on their home turf, the lack of union membership and the protections that go with it have proved a draw for them in the United States.</p>
<p>As journalist <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/la-xpm-2011-may-15-la-oe-meyerson-europeans-20110515-story.html">Harold Meyerson has noted</a>, these foreign automakers embraced the opportunity to “slum” in America and “do things they would never think of doing at home.”</p>
<p>The absence of union representation is a major reason why.</p>
<p>Less than 5% of workers in six Southern states are union members, and only Alabama and Mississippi approach union membership levels above 7%, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf">according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>. </p>
<p>That’s below the national average, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-10-us-workers-belong-to-unions-a-share-thats-stabilized-after-a-steep-decline-221571">slid to 10% in 2023</a>.</p>
<h2>Blaming unions for bad job prospects</h2>
<p>One way automotive employers in the South have blocked unions is by <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/59212/">portraying them as outdated institutions</a> whose bloated contracts and rigid work rules destroy jobs by making domestic auto companies uncompetitive.</p>
<p>Automotive leaders in the South argue the region has developed an alternative labor relations model that <a href="https://www.automotivedive.com/news/is-unionizing-foreign-automakers-next-uaw-strike/698260/">provides management with flexibility</a>, offers wages and benefits superior to what local workers have earned previously and frees employees from any subordination to union directives. </p>
<p>Southern automakers also draw on another powerful resource in resisting the UAW: public intervention by top elected officials.</p>
<p>In 2014, when the UAW attempted to organize a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga. Bob Corker, Tennessee’s junior U.S. senator and a former mayor of Chattanooga, weighed in as voting commenced.</p>
<p>Corker claimed he had received a pledge from Volkswagen’s management to expand production in Chattanooga <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/116653/bob-corkers-uaw-intervention-chattanooga-vw-vote-speaks-volume">if workers voted against the union</a>. </p>
<p>Three years later, Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant similarly urged Nissan workers to reject the UAW. </p>
<p>“If you want to take away your job, if you want to end manufacturing as we know it in Mississippi, just start expanding unions,” <a href="https://www.mpbonline.org/blogs/news/state-leaders-unionizing-nissan-will-not-help-mississippi/">Bryant said in 2017</a>.</p>
<p>A majority of the autoworkers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/business/nissan-united-auto-workers-union.html">heeded their conservative leaders’ advice</a> in both cases and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/02/14/united-auto-workers-lose-historic-election-at-chattanooga-volkswagen-plant/">voted against joining the UAW</a>.</p>
<h2>Making dire warnings</h2>
<p>With the UAW ramping up its organizing efforts again, Southern governors are sounding alarms once more.</p>
<p>“The Alabama model for economic success is under attack,” <a href="https://www.madeinalabama.com/2024/01/gov-ivey-unions-want-to-target-one-of-alabamas-crown-jewel-industries-but-im-standing-up-for-alabamians-and-protecting-our-jobs/">warned Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey</a>. </p>
<p>She then asked workers: “Do you want continued opportunity and success the Alabama way? Or do you want out-of-state special interests telling Alabama how to do business?”</p>
<p>Unions “have crippled and distorted the progress and prosperity of industries and cities in other states,” <a href="https://governor.sc.gov/news/2024-01/2024-state-state-address-governor-henry-mcmaster">South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster</a> declared in his Jan. 24, 2024, State of the State address. He then issued an ominous call: “We will fight” the UAW’s labor organizers “all the way to the gates of hell. And we will win.” </p>
<p>The UAW counters that union membership means workers will get predictable raises, <a href="https://uaw.org/join/#toggle-id-14">better benefits and improved workplace policies</a>.</p>
<h2>Changing context</h2>
<p>Although these arguments from anti-union politicians haven’t changed much over the years, the context certainly has.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/11/12/1211602392/uaw-auto-strike-deals-ratified-big-three-shawn-fain">UAW’s big wins on pay and benefits</a> resulting from its 2023 strike against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis have increased its clout and credibility. </p>
<p>Many automakers with a U.S. workforce not covered by the UAW – including Volkswagen, Honda, Hyundai and other foreign transplants – responded by raising pay at their Southern plants. The union justifiably describes those raises as a “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/cars/uaw-labor-toyota-honda-hyundai/index.html">UAW bump</a>.”</p>
<p>The UAW will presumably cite these pay hikes in its outreach to <a href="https://theconversation.com/next-on-the-united-auto-workers-to-do-list-adding-more-members-who-currently-work-at-nonunion-factories-to-its-ranks-217064">workers at Tesla</a> and other nonunion companies involved in electric vehicle and battery production in which the industry is investing heavily. </p>
<p>“Nonunion autoworkers are being left behind,” <a href="https://uaw.org/join/">the UAW’s recruiting website</a> warns. “Are you ready to stand up and win your fair share?”</p>
<p>The pitch continues: “It’s time for nonunion autoworkers to join the UAW and win economic justice at Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Tesla, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Subaru, Volkswagen, Mazda, Rivian, Lucid, Volvo and beyond.”</p>
<p>Some Southern autoworkers, meanwhile, have been <a href="https://uaw.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IMPROVING-WORK-LIFE-BALANCE-AT-VOLKSWAGEN.pdf">expressing concerns over scheduling</a>, safety, two-tier wage systems and workloads that they believe a union could help resolve.</p>
<p>It’s also clear they’ve been emboldened by the gains they have seen UAW members make. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Southern autoworkers applaud the union-organizing drive underway at a VW factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Revving up</h2>
<p>The UAW’s campaign is just starting to rev up.</p>
<p>In accordance with its “<a href="https://uaw.org/join/#toggle-id-6">30-50-70</a>” strategy, the union is announcing the share of workers who have signed union cards in stages. Once it hits 30% at a factory, the UAW will announce publicly that an organizing campaign is underway. At the 50% mark, it will hold a public rally for workers that includes their neighbors and families, as well as <a href="https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-motortrend-person-of-year-shawn-fain-uaw-president/">UAW President Shawn Fain</a>.</p>
<p>Once it gains support from 70% of a plant’s workers, the UAW says it will seek voluntary recognition by management.</p>
<p>A recent National Labor Relations Board ruling provides unions with additional leverage in this process. If management refuses to recognize the union’s request, the employer would then be required to seek an NLRB representation election.</p>
<p>To win, unions need a majority of those voting. Under the new rule, if management is found to have interfered with workers’ rights during the election process, it could then be <a href="https://www.nlrb.gov/news-outreach/news-story/board-issues-decision-announcing-new-framework-for-union-representation">required to bargain with the union</a>.</p>
<p>So far, the UAW has announced that it has obtained the support of more than half the workers at factories belonging to two of the 13 nonunion automakers it’s targeting: a <a href="https://uaw.org/were-taking-the-lead-over-half-of-volkswagen-workers-in-chattanooga-tennessee-sign-cards-to-join-the-uaw-in-less-than-60-days/">Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga</a>, Tennessee, and a
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/10/uaw-union-mercedes-benz-alabama">Mercedes-Benz factory near Tuscaloosa</a>, Alabama. It has also obtained 30% support at a <a href="https://thehill.com/business/4440930-hyundai-workers-alabama-uaw/">Hyundai plant in Alabama</a> and a <a href="https://labornotes.org/2024/03/toyota-workers-critical-engine-plant-launch-uaw-union-drive">Toyota engine factory in Missouri</a>.</p>
<p>I believe that the stakes are high for all workers, not just those in the auto industry.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/05/unions-south-labor-organizing-ussw-seiu-00114085">D. Taylor, the president of Unite Here</a>, a union that represents workers in a wide range of occupations, recently observed: “If you change the South, you change America.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223162/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I was briefly a UAW local union member in the 1970s.</span></em></p>Despite intermittent efforts over the past three decades, the UAW union has been unable to organize employees of foreign-based automakers in states such as Alabama and Tennessee.Bob Bussel, Professor Emeritus of History and Labor Education, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126052023-10-30T12:29:58Z2023-10-30T12:29:58ZThis course uses big data to examine how American newspapers covered lynchings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556441/original/file-20231029-19-izwm8n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=99%2C9%2C5897%2C2966&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More than 5,000 Black people have been lynched in the US.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/hangmans-noose-on-black-background-royalty-free-image/132062934?adppopup=true">Peter Dazeley/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of course:</h2>
<p>Lynching and the Press</p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>One of my students was reviewing a spreadsheet that listed total lynchings by state. She exhaled, and then, with a bit of weariness, said, “Mississippi, goddamn.”</p>
<p>She was trying to comprehend the enormity of violence against the Black population of Mississippi: 823 lynchings from 1865 to 2011, <a href="https://sites.uw.edu/lynching/#/home">according to the Tolnay-Beck and Seguin lynching inventories</a>, two of the main academic resources in this field. She is one of 13 University of Maryland journalism students digging through <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn95073194/1901-08-28/ed-1/seq-2/#date1=08%2F28%2F1901&index=0&date2=08%2F28%2F1901&searchType=advanced&language=&sequence=0&lccn=sn95073194&words=CRIME&proxdistance=5&state=Nebraska&rows=20&ortext=crime&proxtext=&phrasetext=&andtext=&dateFilterType=range&page=1">historic newspaper articles</a> and data tables this semester to learn about how U.S. newspapers covered lynching. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C4%2C1019%2C823&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photograph of a large crowd of white people looking up, many of them grinning, at tree branches where two men have been hanged, their bodies dangling from the branches." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C4%2C1019%2C823&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555440/original/file-20231023-21-ger90y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thomas Shipp and Abram Smith, both of whom were African American, were lynched by a mob in Marion, Ind., in 1930.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-lynching-of-african-americans-thomas-shipp-and-abram-news-photo/871633440?adppopup=true">Photo 12/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The class is an extension of an <a href="https://www.ire.org/announcing-the-2021-ire-award-winners/">award-winning 2021 student journalism project</a> called “<a href="https://lynching.cnsmaryland.org/">Printing Hate</a>,” published by the <a href="https://merrill.umd.edu/howard-center-for-investigative-journalism">Howard Center for Investigative Journalism</a> at the University of Maryland, which examined various case studies of lynching coverage.</p>
<p>My class is taking a much longer view of this kind of journalism, using big data tools to examine newspaper coverage of lynchings from 1789 through 1963. In the process, students will gain important insights about our country’s history. They are learning about the societal context that allowed more than <a href="https://sites.uw.edu/lynching/">5,000 mob-driven murders</a> of Black citizens to happen and how some mainstream news coverage reinforced the violent white supremacy of these events. Newspapers, for example, frequently used dehumanizing language to describe the lynching victims as “<a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn86063034/1890-10-19/ed-1/seq-2/#date1=10%2F19%2F1890&index=0&date2=10%2F19%2F1890&searchType=advanced&language=&sequence=0&lccn=sn86063034&words=Fiend&proxdistance=5&rows=20&ortext=Fiend&proxtext=&phrasetext=&andtext=&dateFilterType=range&page=1">fiends</a>” or “<a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn82015137/1881-08-23/ed-1/seq-1/#date1=08%2F23%2F1881&index=0&date2=08%2F23%2F1881&searchType=advanced&language=&sequence=0&lccn=sn82015137&words=Brute&proxdistance=5&rows=20&ortext=&proxtext=brute&phrasetext=&andtext=&dateFilterType=range&page=1">black brutes</a>.”</p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<p>The core of the class involves analyzing data from 60,000 news pages captured from the <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/">Library of Congress’ Chronicling America</a> database of historic newspapers. This project began as an academic study with my colleague <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=koSIcJ0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Sean Mussenden</a>, the data editor at the Howard Center and senior lecturer at the Philip Merrill College of Journalism. A prominent journalism historian, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TwNX-ucAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Kathy Roberts Forde</a>, at the University of Massachusetts Amherst later joined our team. </p>
<p>After working with this large dataset, I decided to offer a class so students could learn research skills, such as data and content analysis, while also learning more about history and the history of U.S. journalism.</p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>• “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/1099574431">Southern Horrors: Lynch Law in All Its Phases</a>,” by journalist <a href="https://theconversation.com/ida-b-wells-how-grassroots-support-and-social-media-made-a-monumental-difference-in-honoring-her-legacy-100866">Ida B. Wells</a>.</p>
<p>• “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/1252735793">Journalism and Jim Crow: White Supremacy and the Black Struggle for a New America</a>,” by Kathy Roberts Forde and Sid Bedingfield.</p>
<p>• “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/they-left-great-marks-on-me-african-american-testimonies-of-racial-violence-from-emancipation-to-world-war-i/oclc/778459402">They Left Great Marks On Me: African American Testimonies of Racial Violence from Emancipation to World War I</a>,” by Kidada Williams. </p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>Working with a sample of this data from newspaper lynching articles, students compared the lynching location with the location of the newspaper. It took about three weeks for the class to classify some 3,000 news articles on a Google form and sheet that I had prepared. Students’ preliminary research is exploring why some Southern newspapers would cover lynching outside the state but not in their own backyards. Students are wondering if this was a form of erasure of local history.</p>
<p>Later this semester, my students will research the tone of newspaper narratives about lynching, such as how the news coverage portrayed the mob. The one graduate student in the class, who is pursuing her Ph.D. in history, is examining lynching in the antebellum era, a period for which there is very little research on this topic available.</p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>My students write weekly reflections about the readings and coursework. This course has opened their eyes to how the news media’s negative portrayals of African Americans can support systems of white supremacy. <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/778459402">Few mainstream newspaper articles reflected Black voices</a>, except, of course, the Black press.</p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>These students will leave this class with in-depth data and content analysis skills. They will acquire a keen sensitivity to portrayals of Black Americans and other people of color in news coverage. Ultimately, we hope the course will lead to better journalism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Wells receives funding from the Social Data Science Center Seed Grant program for this research into media coverage of lynching.</span></em></p>Student journalists are using spreadsheets and databases to examine one of the darkest chapters in American history.Rob Wells, Associate Professor, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138112023-09-29T12:24:33Z2023-09-29T12:24:33ZLessons for today from the overlooked stories of Black teachers during the segregated civil rights era<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549789/original/file-20230922-24-riaeuj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=525%2C194%2C2981%2C2371&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Black schoolroom in Mississippi in 1939.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/class-in-a-schoolroom-on-the-mileston-plantation-in-delta-news-photo/615301754?adppopup=true">Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>My grandmother’s name was Mrs. Zola Jackson. </p>
<p>As one of the handful of Black teachers in Mississippi during the Jim Crow era of racially segregated public schools, she faced a daunting challenge in providing a first-class education to students considered second-class citizens. </p>
<p>Educated at Rust College, a historically Black school, in the 1940s, she taught in the small city of Hattiesburg for over 30 years from 1943-1975, the majority of which was spent in elementary classrooms at DePriest, the school for Black children.</p>
<p>Before the 1954 landmark <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/brown-v-board-of-education">Brown v. Board decision</a> that deemed segregated schools “separate and unequal,” the efforts of Black teachers went unheralded, underappreciated and virtually unknown. </p>
<p>I, too, was disconnected from their stories until I became a public school teacher teacher myself and began <a href="https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/items/126660">my research</a> on the oral histories of Black female teachers in Mississippi during the civil rights era.</p>
<p>My research revealed at least one important lesson: What Black teachers face today is not that different from what we faced in the past. </p>
<h2>In spite of it all</h2>
<p>One of the initial questions that I wanted to answer was, how did educators in the past meet the academic and emotional needs of their students with little to no resources and the constant threat of racial violence?</p>
<p>What I found was that for Black people, education was in and of itself an act of active resistance against racial disenfranchisement.</p>
<p>As education scholar <a href="https://education.illinois.edu/faculty/christopher-span">Christopher Span</a> explained in his 2012 seminal book “<a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469622217/from-cotton-field-to-schoolhouse/">From Cottonfield to Schoolhouse</a>”: </p>
<p>“To be educated was to be respected; to be educated was to be a citizen. Accordingly, countless black Mississippians willingly sought out schooling, viewing it as the foundation for self-improvement and one means for attaining social and economic parity in slavery’s aftermath.” </p>
<p>At the center of that rich and complex history were Black teachers who believed that a good education was synonymous with freedom and the desire to move beyond the confines of second-class citizenship. </p>
<p>As a result, Black teachers used classrooms to not only impart the lessons of history, but also to encourage students to be actively involved in the fight for racial equity. </p>
<p>In “<a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9780807845813/their-highest-potential/">Their Highest Potential</a>,” education scholar <a href="https://naeducation.org/our-members/vanessa-siddle-walker/">Vanessa Siddle Walker</a> wrote in 1996 that Black teachers were “consistently remembered by their former students and colleagues "for their high expectations for student success, for their dedication, and for their demanding teaching style.” </p>
<h2>Education was paramount</h2>
<p>Black teachers used many approaches to ensure student success. Here are a few that serve as lessons for today: </p>
<p>Arguably the most important, the first is developing relationships and mentorships. </p>
<p>Because teachers were part of the community during the civil rights era, it was common for them to be an extension of their students’ families. If needed, teachers made home visits, were in regular communication with families about students’ well-being and held students to high academic and behavioral expectations. Further solidifying those relationships was the fact that many of the teachers had taught several generations of families. </p>
<p>These relationships enabled teachers to use what is now known as <a href="https://online.sou.edu/degrees/education/msed/early-childhood-education/whole-child-approach-learning/">the whole child approach</a> that focuses on a student’s academic potential as well as their social and emotional needs. </p>
<p>It was understood by Black teachers that educating the whole child helped to establish foundations needed for academic and emotional growth in young students. Because of their teachers, Black students valued education and modeled their own behavior to achieve their own potential.</p>
<p>A second lesson from the past that is useful today was the emphasis on civic engagement. Back then, classrooms were places to imagine radical change. Inaction in the face of injustice was not a viable option, and there was an expectation that young people work to become leaders.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A group of Black teenagers carry American flags as they protest against the murder of a civil rights leader." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550946/original/file-20230928-25-f7cw8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550946/original/file-20230928-25-f7cw8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550946/original/file-20230928-25-f7cw8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550946/original/file-20230928-25-f7cw8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550946/original/file-20230928-25-f7cw8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1041&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550946/original/file-20230928-25-f7cw8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1041&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550946/original/file-20230928-25-f7cw8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1041&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Black teenagers in Mississippi carry American flags on Jun. 13, 1963, to protest the murder of a civil rights leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/african-american-teenagers-carrying-american-flags-protest-news-photo/1211547094?adppopup=true">Archive Photos/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Going to jail, protesting, risking one’s life and making sacrifices to help the Civil Rights Movement were all realities young people faced and were willing to endure if it meant securing equal rights. </p>
<p>A third lesson is the importance of building coalitions across racial lines. </p>
<p>Groups such as the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/african-americans/black-power/sncc">Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee</a>, the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/naacp/the-civil-rights-era.html">NAACP</a> and the <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/congress-racial-equality-core">Congress of Racial Equity</a> worked with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wnet/religionandethics/for-educators/religion-and-the-civil-rights-movement-background/">religious organizations</a> and <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-freedom-riders-then-and-now-45351758/">white students from colleges</a> during the 1960s <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/sit-ins">lunch counter sit-ins</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Freedom-Rides">the freedom rides</a>, as well as <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/march-washington-jobs-and-freedom">the 1963 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom</a>. </p>
<p>But not all coalitions were effective. During a 1967 meeting of the National Council of Negro Women, civil rights activist <a href="https://iucat.iu.edu/iub/9589559">Fannie Lou Hamer</a> criticized the educated middle-class Black alliances in Mississippi with Black ministers and white power brokers. But even still, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/mississippi-scholarship-online/book/29348/chapter-abstract/244098725?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false">she explained</a>, “the only thing we can do is to work together.”</p>
<p>Of the many lessons from the past, one handed down from my grandmother still rings true today. </p>
<p>She knew then that education was intended to be the great equalizer in America and the key to upward mobility – and she worked her entire career making sure that became a reality in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. </p>
<p>At the school where my grandmother taught, for instance, she used <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9505395/">creativity</a> to solve a critical problem: DePriest did not have a library. </p>
<p>Instead, my grandmother started her own by bringing in books from her personal collection and letting students borrow them one at a time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marlee Bunch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>During the civil rights era, Black teachers were valued members of the community and often taught generations of family members.Marlee Bunch, Staff K-12 Initiatives, Office of the Chancellor, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2038832023-05-16T12:39:47Z2023-05-16T12:39:47ZUS has a long history of state lawmakers silencing elected Black officials and taking power from their constituents<p>Some Republican lawmakers in Georgia are targeting Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, a Black Democrat representing a majority Black district, for removal from office. </p>
<p>These efforts come in the midst of Willis’ investigation and prosecution of former President Donald Trump and 18 others for their alleged conspiracy to overturn results of the state’s 2020 presidential election. </p>
<p>Before a Fulton County grand jury indicted Trump and his co-defendants, Georgia Republican lawmakers pushed through legislation to set up a Prosecuting Attorneys Qualifications Commission, which has the power to discipline or remove from office elected district attorneys whom commission members believe are not adequately enforcing Georgia law. Governor Brian Kemp, also a Republican, <a href="https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2023-05-05/gov-kemp-signs-legislation-creating-prosecuting-attorneys-qualifications">signed the legislation</a> on May 5, 2023. </p>
<p>Steve Gooch, Georgia Senate majority leader, and state Senator Clint Dixon, have said they will use the newly created commission – which will be up and running Oct. 1, 2023 – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/01/georgia-republicans-fani-willis-unseat">to investigate Willis</a>. </p>
<p>Kemp, who objects, said on Aug. 31, 2023, that he “<a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/kemp-rejects-talk-of-special-session-warns-of-risks-of-punishing-fani-willis/I4JZYJIORNACFKY2COSFE3VCSI/">hasn’t seen any evidence</a>” Willis violated her oath of office. </p>
<p>These efforts to undercut prosecutors’ authority in Georgia are not happening in a silo. </p>
<p>On Aug. 9, 2023, Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/09/desantis-suspends-state-attorney-worrell-0011044">suspended elected State Attorney Monique Worrell</a>, whom he said was too lenient with criminals. Worrell was Florida’s only Black woman state attorney. DeSantis <a href="https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/08/09/ron-desantis-andrew-bain-monique-worrell/">replaced her with Black conservative Andrew Bain</a>. </p>
<p>In Mississippi, legislators have enacted a law that would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/08/jackson-mississippi-republicans-unelected-court-system">create a new judicial system</a> covering the state’s capital city, Jackson, in place of the current county court system. </p>
<p>In effect since July 1, 2023, the move by a Republican-dominated legislature has been criticized by opponents as creating a “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/04/24/separate-and-unequal-policing-naacp-sues-mississippi-over-new-laws/11728899002/">separate and unequal</a>” court system that is not answerable to the majority-Black community it would seek to govern.</p>
<p>The law was justified by supporters as an effort to curb the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/naacp-sues-mississippi-over-state-takeover-of-jacksons-policing-and-courts/ar-AA1ahuKA">city’s crime level</a>, which includes <a href="https://www.wlbt.com/2023/01/07/analysis-second-straight-year-jacksons-homicide-rate-ranks-highest-us-among-major-cities/">one of the highest murder rates in the nation</a>. </p>
<p>But the move was the third time in recent months that state legislatures have taken highly visible actions to effectively disenfranchise Black voters: On April 6, 2023, the Tennessee House of Representatives <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2023/04/07/tennessee-house-expulsion-vote-why-were-lawmakers-expelled/70092066007/">expelled two Black members</a> who represented mostly Black districts. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=566DVVQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociologist who studies historical issues related to race, gender and social justice</a>, I have closely followed these moves by the states. Throughout U.S. history, I see three main periods of legislative disenfranchisement in which legislative bodies have voted to expel members. These events have been shown to be a form of “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5816/blackscholar.44.2.0103">white backlash</a>” working to keep <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ahr/118.2.551">Black officeholders out of power and their constituents powerless without representation</a>.</p>
<h2>Reconstruction and legislative disenfranchisement</h2>
<p>After the Civil War, the United States engaged in a brief period known as <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/reconstruction">Reconstruction</a>, which lasted from 1865 to 1877. It was a deliberate attempt to reverse the negative effects and legacies of slavery by enacting economic, political and social policies that directly benefited the formerly enslaved Black people of the South. </p>
<p>The efforts included formally <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-13/">abolishing slavery nationwide</a>, guaranteeing <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/">equal protection of the laws</a> to everyone regardless of race, and <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-15/">allowing formerly enslaved people to vote</a>. In addition, formerly Confederate <a href="https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/history-archaeology/shermans-field-order-no-15/">land was set aside</a> for newly freed Black families, and former Confederate soldiers were not allowed to vote.</p>
<p>But after Tennessee politician Andrew Johnson, who had been Abraham Lincoln’s running mate in 1864, took office upon Lincoln’s assassination, many of those provisions of Reconstruction <a href="https://www.nps.gov/anjo/andrew-johnson-and-reconstruction.htm">were reversed</a>. Former Confederate combatants were allowed to vote, and confiscated Confederate property was returned to its prewar owners.</p>
<p>In addition, Johnson and Congress made it easier for defeated Confederate states to <a href="https://www.nps.gov/anjo/andrew-johnson-and-reconstruction.htm">rejoin the Union</a>, which allowed former Confederate leaders to regain their previous positions of power in local and national governments. </p>
<p>Georgia was originally readmitted to the Union in <a href="https://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/opinion/columns/georgias-readmission-to-the-union/article_afb9fc3e-886c-5b5d-ac2f-0e975f68b32e.html">July 1868</a>. But just two months later, in September, the Democratically controlled Georgia Assembly, with a total of 196 members, voted to expel all 33 of its Black elected officials.</p>
<p>Immediately upon making themselves into an all-white legislature, the remaining assembly members enacted the infamous <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/black-codes">Black Codes</a>. These codes created a unique set of laws specific to the newly freed Blacks, including limiting the types of work they could do.</p>
<p>Collectively, the legislative expulsion of the Black officials and the imposition of the Black Codes served to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/rule-by-violence-rule-by-law-lynching-jim-crow-and-the-continuing-evolution-of-voter-suppression-in-the-us/CBC6AD86B557A093D7E832F8D821978B">effectively disenfranchise</a> the Black voters of Georgia. Senator Henry McNeal Turner, one of those expelled, defiantly <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/georgia-unique-bloody-history-voter-disenfranchisement">asked</a>: “Am I a man? If I am such, I claim the rights of a man.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A drawing of a Black man standing on a porch with people surrounding him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under the Black Codes, which were restrictive laws in the post-Reconstruction South, a Black person could be sold into what was effectively a new version of slavery if they could not repay fines or debts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/copy-of-an-illustration-showing-a-free-black-man-being-sold-news-photo/134341296">Interim Archives/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The civil rights era</h2>
<p>Another major effort to disenfranchise Black Americans came during their next major push to achieve political, social and economic equality: the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/civil-rights-movement">Civil Rights Movement</a> of the 1950s and 1960s. Opponents targeted two prominent civil rights activists who had been elected to represent their communities: Adam Clayton Powell Jr. and Julian Bond.</p>
<p>Bond was elected as a Democrat to the Georgia House of Representatives in 1965, but on Jan. 10, 1966, the Democratically controlled House voted not to seat him, citing his criticism of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08997225.1974.10555931">U.S. involvement in Vietnam and support of students who were protesting the war</a>. A year later, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Bond’s <a href="https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/182/bond-v-floyd">First Amendment rights</a> had been violated and ordered that he be seated. But for that intervening year, his constituents had no voice in their state legislature. Bond ultimately served in the Georgia Legislature for <a href="https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/history-archaeology/julian-bond-1940-2015/">another two decades</a>, before turning to teaching and activism.</p>
<p>Powell’s situation was different. He was the first African American to be elected to Congress from New York and from any state in the Northeast. Starting in 1945, he represented the district that included the majority-Black Harlem neighborhood of New York City. He became <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2783891?seq=12">one of the most important Democrats</a> in the House, but in the mid-1960s, he found himself <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Adam-Clayton-Powell-Jr">embroiled in personal and financial scandals</a>. </p>
<p>After the election of 1966, the House created a committee to investigate Powell’s actions and <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Listing/P/POWELL,-Adam-Clayton,-Jr--(P000477)/">refused to seat him</a> until the committee’s report was complete. The report found fault, but committee members were split on the proper discipline for Powell. Ultimately the whole House voted to keep him out.</p>
<p>Powell <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Listing/P/POWELL,-Adam-Clayton,-Jr--(P000477)/">sued to reclaim his seat</a>, saying the House had excluded him unconstitutionally. He also won the special election in April 1967 created by the vacancy but didn’t take his seat because of the lawsuit. The removal of Powell meant that Harlem was <a href="https://archive.org/details/kingofcatsli00hayg">the only congressional district in the nation</a> without a representative from 1967 to 1969.</p>
<p>In 1969, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-supreme-court/395/486.html">House had acted unconstitutionally</a> by refusing to seat Powell. By then, Powell had also won the 1968 regularly scheduled election and had been seated, though without the seniority and committee positions that would normally have been given to someone who had continuously been a House member. </p>
<h2>Black Lives Matter movement</h2>
<p>In the aftermath of the George Floyd killing, a <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/blacklivesmatter-hashtag-first-appears-facebook-sparking-a-movement">new social movement</a> emerged across the United States. With this new activism came another “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000460">white backlash</a>” in the form of legislative disenfranchisement.</p>
<p>In May 2022, Tiara Young Hudson, a long-serving Black public defender, <a href="https://www.cbs42.com/alabama-news/last-month-jefferson-county-voters-elected-a-new-judge-now-she-may-never-take-the-bench/">won the Democratic primary</a> for a judgeship in Jefferson County, Alabama. <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/jeffersoncountyalabama">More than half of the county’s population</a> is nonwhite. Facing no opposition in the general election, she was expected to win and take office. </p>
<p>But two weeks after the primary, a state judicial commission, divided along racial lines, <a href="https://www.al.com/news/2022/06/alabama-commission-moves-vacant-jefferson-county-judgeship-to-understaffed-madison-county-courts.html">eliminated the position she was a candidate for</a> and created a new judgeship in the majority-white Madison County. </p>
<p>Hudson immediately <a href="https://www.al.com/news/2022/07/candidate-who-won-jefferson-county-judicial-seat-sues-to-block-transfer-of-seat-to-madison-county.html">sued to block the shift</a>, saying it violated the Alabama Constitution and only the state Legislature had the authority to reallocate judgeships. In March 2023, the state Supreme Court <a href="https://www.al.com/news/2023/03/alabama-supreme-court-allows-jefferson-county-judgeship-transfer-to-madison-county.html">dismissed Hudson’s complaint</a>, effectively stripping the Black people of Jefferson County of a representative they had elected to be their voice on the state’s roster of judges.</p>
<p>And on April 6, 2023, the Republican majority of the Tennessee House of Representatives voted to expel two Black legislators – Justin Pearson and Justin Jones – for participating in a protest calling for gun legislation following yet another mass shooting. </p>
<p>Within days, both Pearson and Jones had been temporarily reinstated by processes for filling vacant seats, and subsequently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/tennessee-democrats-expelled-gop-protests-special-election-rcna97374">reclaimed their seats in special elections</a>. Their alleged violation was participating in a protest against legislature rules – but their real violation, I believe, was that they are Black. I believe that is the reason Willis is being targeted too.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on May 16, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodney Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Throughout US history, a ‘white backlash’ has worked to keep Black officeholders and their constituents out of power. Atlanta DA Fani Willis is just the latest.Rodney Coates, Professor of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2046632023-04-28T12:46:25Z2023-04-28T12:46:25ZEmmett Till’s accuser, Carolyn Bryant Donham, has died – here’s how the 1955 murder case helped define civil rights history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523323/original/file-20230427-2476-sdo2si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Carolyn Bryant Donham, left, reads newspaper accounts of the Emmett Till murder trial in 1955. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1387675173/photo/emmett-till-murder-trial.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=6AHNEtCZd-n8SzB4KlwtTrW6VqogGwjiZZGJQP187mk=">Bettmann Archive/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Carolyn Bryant Donham, the white woman <a href="https://apnews.com/article/emmett-till-carolyn-bryant-donham-1bcfff1c5a29484270d66b224422f112">who accused Black teenager</a> Emmett Till of making inappropriate advances toward her in 1955, has died at the age of 88 in Louisiana, according to a coroner’s report.</p>
<p>Nearly 68 years after Till was kidnapped, brutally tortured, murdered and then dumped into the Tallahatchie River in Mississippi, the case continues to resonate with audiences around the world because it represents an egregious example of justice denied. </p>
<p>As a historian of the <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=fLC2Ei-VvuoC&lpg=PR7&ots=97G2d6B94B&dq=davis%20houck%20till&lr&pg=PR7#v=onepage&q=davis%20houck%20till&f=false">Mississippi civil rights movements</a>, I quickly learned that most Mississippi civil rights history leads back to the widespread outrage over the Till case in the summer of 1955.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young Black boy leans against his arm and reclines on a bed in a black and white photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523324/original/file-20230427-961-uvz7nc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emmett Till is shown lying on his bed in 1954, one year before his murder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/514974304/photo/emmett-till.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=H_59CkJeGX1ESuR52wL2c8X9aDnSxek6F17MCsU0L_E=">Bettmann/Contributor</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Emmett in Money, Mississippi</h2>
<p>Fourteen-year-old Emmett arrived in Mississippi on Aug. 20, 1955, from Chicago to visit his mother’s family, who sharecropped cotton in the tiny Delta community of Money. </p>
<p>On the evening of Aug. 24, Emmett and several cousins and neighbors drove the 2.8 miles into Money to buy candy at the Bryant Grocery and Meat Market. </p>
<p>Emmett entered the store alone. He bought 2 cents’ worth of bubble gum and left. At the door Emmett let out a loud, two-note wolf whistle directed at white 21-year-old Carolyn Bryant. His cousins were terrified: Emmett had just hit the trip wire of Southern racial fears by flirting with a white woman.</p>
<p>Early on Aug. 28, several men – white and Black – took Emmett from his family’s house. Emmett’s badly decomposed and battered body was discovered three days later in the Tallahatchie River. Emmett’s uncle could identify Emmett only by a ring he was wearing that once belonged to Emmett’s father, Louis Till.</p>
<p>Two white men, Roy Bryant and J. W. Milam, were quickly arrested and later charged with murder. During a five-day trial in September, the two men were found not guilty after a 67-minute deliberation by an all-white, all-male jury. </p>
<p>Several years later, members of the jury confessed to a Florida State University graduate student, <a href="https://fsu.digital.flvc.org/islandora/object/fsu%3A277427">Hugh Stephen Whitaker</a>, that they knew the men were guilty but simply wouldn’t convict a white man of crimes against a Black child.</p>
<p>In 1956, Milam and Bryant <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/till-killers-confession/">sold their</a> “shocking true story” of what happened to Till for US$3,150 to Look magazine. For nearly 50 years, celebrity journalist William Bradford Huie’s “confession” story in Look functioned as the final word on the case. </p>
<h2>Continued interest and coverage</h2>
<p>Southern newspapers wanted immediately to forget the Till story, ashamed of the backlash caused by Milam and Bryant’s “confession.” Many Northern and Western newspapers editorialized on the case long after its conclusion. America’s Black press never quit writing about the case; it was their work, after all, helping to track down Black eyewitnesses in September 1955 that helped us understand the truth of what actually happened to Emmett Till on Aug. 28, 1955.</p>
<p>Thanks to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvijYSJtkQk&t=10s">investigative work</a> by documentary filmmaker Keith Beauchamp and others, the public has since learned that Milam and Bryant were part of a much larger lynching party, none of whom were ever punished.</p>
<p>Today, all of the people directly involved in Till’s murder are dead. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman stands with two young boys on the steps of a dilapidated looking wooden building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523359/original/file-20230428-30-kdf4gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carolyn Byant Donham stands with her sons outside the store where she first encountered Emmett Till.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/515021604/photo/mrs-roy-bryant-leaving-building-with-sons.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=jxt9tRKAN3XqOxRFUF8GovCOblOFyeY6Xw0_Z3PoVhE=">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A case that aged with Carolyn Bryant Donham</h2>
<p>The last <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/us/carolyn-bryant-donham-dead.html">20 years of Bryant Donham’s life</a> were characterized by the attempt of private citizens and law enforcement to bring her to justice for the part she played in Till’s kidnapping and murder.</p>
<p>When Bryant Donham was in her 80s and living with family in Raleigh, North Carolina, FBI investigators and federal prosecutors revisited her case and the potential for prosecuting her for Till’s kidnapping and death. One question was whether Bryant Donham recanted her previous testimony about Till’s advances and said that it was false.</p>
<p>A historian said in 2017 that Bryant Donham told him in a rare interview that the most egregious parts of the story she and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/us/carolyn-bryant-donham-dead.html">others told about Emmett Till were false</a>.</p>
<p>The Justice Department said in 2021, though, that it <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/emmett-till-carolyn-bryant-investigation/2021/12/06/8f5e8490-56d1-11ec-9a18-a506cf3aa31d_story.html">was unable to confirm</a> whether Bryant Donham actually went back on her previous testimony, and it closed the case. </p>
<p>Then, in 2022, a team of researchers – including two of Till’s relatives – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/29/emmett-till-warrant-carolyn-bryant-donham-family-arrest">discovered an unserved arrest warrant</a> for Bryant Donham in a courthouse basement. This led some legal experts to say that the 1955 document could support probable cause to prosecute Bryant Donham for her involvement in Till’s death. </p>
<p>Mississippi’s attorney general said in 2022 that the office <a href="https://apnews.com/article/arrests-mississippi-emmett-till-19176fe64ec8054188601d000ba569f2">did not plan to prosecute</a> Bryant Donham – though that didn’t stop activists from protesting outside her home that same year.</p>
<p>Recently unearthed documents also showed that <a href="https://www.mississippicir.org/perspective/carolyn-bryant-lied-about-emmett-till-did-author-tim-tyson-lie-too">Till did not put his hands</a> on her nor talk lewdly to her in the store. That was all fabricated as part of the defense’s strategy to argue that the lynching amounted to justifiable homicide. When the presiding judge, Curtis Swango, did not allow the jury to hear <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/us/carolyn-bryant-donham-dead.html">Bryant Donham’s testimony</a>, the defense pivoted to <a href="https://famous-trials.com/emmetttill/1763-nottills">the absurd claim that the body taken</a> from the Tallahatchie River wasn’t Till’s. </p>
<p>Over the past several decades, the Till case has continued to resonate, especially for a nation that still experiences the all-too-frequent and seemingly unprovoked deaths of young Black men. The Till family has had to live with an open wound for 68 years. As Devery Anderson, author of “Emmett Till: The Murder That Shocked the World and Propelled the Civil Rights Movement,” has noted, that <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/emmett-tills-accuser-carolyn-bryant-donham-dies-along-with-any-last-chance-of-justice">wound won’t suddenly go away</a> with Bryant Donham’s passing.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/emmett-tills-life-matters-99923">article originally published on July 13, 2018</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Davis W. Houck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Bryant Donham was never charged for her involvement in Till’s death, the Justice Department continued to investigate the case and consider the potential for an arrest as recently as 2021.Davis W. Houck, Professor, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2027042023-03-28T12:22:16Z2023-03-28T12:22:16ZWhy tornadoes are still hard to forecast – even though storm predictions are improving<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518829/original/file-20230331-18-ihfljb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C315%2C1649%2C1048&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A tornado touches down.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/noaanssl/47953539496">Morgan Schneider/OU CIMMS/NOAA NSSL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Meteorologists <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov">began warning about severe weather</a> with the potential for tornadoes <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php">several days before</a> storms tore across <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151138/tornado-leaves-path-of-destruction-in-mississippi">the Southeast</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/us/midwest-storms-flood-weather.html">Central U.S.</a> in late March 2023. At one point, <a href="https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1641890452562403328">more than 28 million people</a> were under a <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/tornado-ww">tornado watch</a>. But pinpointing exactly where a tornado will touch down – like the tornadoes that hit <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65072195">Rolling Fork, Mississippi</a>, on March 24, and towns in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tornado-arkansas-storm-concert-79fe2da8a6b8bd92970032530b760d20">Arkansas</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65072195">Illinois</a> and <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230331_rpts.html">multiple other states</a> on March 31 – still relies heavily on seeing the storms developing on radar. <a href="https://atmo.tamu.edu/people/profiles/faculty/nowotarskichristopher.html">Chris Nowotarski</a>, an atmospheric scientist, explains why, and how forecast technology is improving.</em></p>
<h2>Why are tornadoes still so difficult to forecast?</h2>
<p>Meteorologists have gotten a lot better at forecasting the conditions that make tornadoes more likely. But predicting exactly which thunderstorms will produce a tornado and when is harder, and that’s where a lot of severe weather research is focused today.</p>
<p>Often, you’ll have a line of thunderstorms in an environment that looks favorable for tornadoes, and one storm might produce a tornado but the others don’t. </p>
<p>The differences between them could be due to small differences in meteorological variables that aren’t resolved by our current observing networks or computer models. Even changes in the land surface conditions – fields, forested regions or urban environments – could affect whether a tornado forms. These small changes in the storm environment can have large impacts on the processes within storms that can make or break a tornado.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scientists stand near a truck outfitted with measuring devices with a dramatic storm on the horizon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517815/original/file-20230327-18-egyw14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517815/original/file-20230327-18-egyw14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517815/original/file-20230327-18-egyw14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517815/original/file-20230327-18-egyw14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517815/original/file-20230327-18-egyw14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517815/original/file-20230327-18-egyw14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517815/original/file-20230327-18-egyw14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One way scientists gather data for understanding tornadoes is by chasing storms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/noaanssl/52201476520/">Annette Price/CIWRO</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of the strongest predictors of whether a thunderstorm produces a tornado relates to <a href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/tornado">vertical wind shear</a>, which is how the wind changes direction or speed with height in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>How wind shear interacts with rain-cooled air within storms, which we call “outflow,” and how much precipitation evaporates can influence whether a tornado forms. If you’ve ever been in a thunderstorm, you know that right before it starts to rain, you often get a gust of cold air surging out from the storm. The characteristics of that cold air outflow are important to whether a tornado can form, because tornadoes typically form in that cooler portion of the storm.</p>
<h2>How far in advance can you know if a tornado is likely to be large and powerful?</h2>
<p>The vast majority of violent tornadoes form from <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/supercell">supercells</a>, thunderstorms with a deep rotating updraft, called a “mesocyclone.” Vertical wind shear can enable the midlevels of the storm to rotate, and upward suction from this mesocyclone can intensify the rotation within the storm’s outflow into a tornado.</p>
<p>If you have a supercell on radar and it has strong rotation above the ground, that’s often a precursor to a tornado. Some research suggests that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0099.1">a wider mesocyclone is more likely to create a stronger</a>, longer-lasting tornado than other storms.</p>
<p>Forecasters also look at the storm’s environmental conditions – temperature, humidity and wind shear. Those offer more clues that a storm is likely to produce a significant tornado.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/R7CD6MpTefs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">What radar showed as a tornado headed toward Rolling Fork, Mississippi, on March 24, 2023.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The percentage of tornadoes that <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/tornado-ww">trigger a warning</a> has increased over recent decades, due to <a href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/how">Doppler radar</a>, improved modeling and better understanding of the storm environment. About <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0119.1">87% of deadly tornadoes</a> from 2003 to 2017 had an advance warning.</p>
<p>The lead time for warnings has also improved. In general, it’s <a href="https://community.fema.gov/ProtectiveActions/s/article/Tornado-Alerts-and-Warnings">about 10 to 15 minutes</a> now. That’s enough time to get to your basement or, if you’re in a trailer park or outside, to find a safe facility. Not every storm will have that much lead time, so it’s important to get to shelter fast.</p>
<h2>What are researchers discovering today about tornadoes that can help protect lives in the future?</h2>
<p>If you think back to the <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0117998/">movie “Twister</a>,” in the early 1990s we were starting to do more field work on tornadoes. We were taking radar out in trucks and driving vehicles with roof-mounted instruments into storms. That’s when we really started to appreciate what we call the storm-scale processes – the conditions inside the storm itself, how variations in temperature and humidity in outflow can influence the potential for tornadoes.</p>
<p>Scientists can’t launch a weather balloon or send instruments into every storm, though. So, we also use computers to model storms to understand what’s happening inside. Often, we’ll run several models, referred to as ensembles. For instance, if nine out of 10 models produce a tornado, we know there’s a good chance the storm will produce tornadoes.</p>
<p>The National Severe Storms Laboratory has recently been experimenting with tornado warnings based on these models, called <a href="https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/wof/">Warn-on-Forecast</a>, to increase the lead time for tornado warnings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A destroyed home with just one wall standing and furniture strewn about in Rolling Fork, Mississippi, after the tornado March 24, 2023." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517845/original/file-20230328-490-c5aoro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An early warning can be the difference between life and death for people in homes without basements or cellars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-a-destroyed-neighborhood-in-rolling-fork-news-photo/1249647508">Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are a lot of other areas of research. For example, to better understand how storms form, <a href="http://people.tamu.edu/%7Ecjnowotarski/research.html">I do a lot of idealized computer modeling</a>. For that, I use a model with a simplified storm environment and make small changes to the environment to see how that changes the physics within the storm itself. </p>
<p>There are also new tools in storm chasing. There’s been an explosion in the use of drones – scientists are putting sensors into unmanned aerial vehicles and <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/aerospace/2021/12/08/designing-flying-ai-systems-study-supercell-thunderstorms-close">flying them close to</a> and sometimes into the storm.</p>
<p>The focus of tornado research has also shifted from the Great Plains – the traditional “tornado alley” – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0342.1">to the Southeast</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1641899393971265537"}"></div></p>
<h2>What’s different about tornadoes in the Southeast?</h2>
<p>In the Southeast there are some different influences on storms compared with the Great Plains. The Southeast has more trees and more varied terrain, and also more moisture in the atmosphere because it’s close to the Gulf of Mexico. There tend to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222132.1">more fatalities</a> in the Southeast, too, because <a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-that-strike-at-night-are-more-deadly-and-require-more-effective-warning-systems-132955">more tornadoes form at night</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="US map showing highest number of tornadoes in Mississippi, Alabama and western Tennessee." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517812/original/file-20230327-18-9tncri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517812/original/file-20230327-18-9tncri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517812/original/file-20230327-18-9tncri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517812/original/file-20230327-18-9tncri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517812/original/file-20230327-18-9tncri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517812/original/file-20230327-18-9tncri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517812/original/file-20230327-18-9tncri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of severe tornado days from 1986 to 2015 shows a large number in the Southeast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/">NOAA Storm Prediction Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We tend to see more tornadoes in the Southeast that are in lines of thunderstorms called “quasi-linear convective systems.” The processes that lead to tornadoes in these storms can be different, and scientists are learning more about that.</p>
<p>Some research has also suggested the start of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5285">a climatological shift</a> in tornadoes toward the Southeast. It can be difficult to disentangle an increase in storms from better technology spotting more tornadoes, though. So, more research is needed.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated March 31, 2023, with tornadoes in Arkansas and the central U.S.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202704/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Nowotarski receives funding from NSF, NOAA, DOE, and NASA.</span></em></p>Researchers are turning to computer models, drones and other methods to improve tornado forecasting.Chris Nowotarski, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1967922022-12-23T16:42:06Z2022-12-23T16:42:06ZCalling Deion Sanders a sellout ignores the growing role of clout-chasing in college sports<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501978/original/file-20221219-14-jjx1kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=140%2C39%2C5055%2C3383&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jackson State Tigers coach Deion Sanders greets right tackle Deontae Graham during the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 17, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jackson-state-tigers-coach-deion-sanders-greets-right-news-photo/1245687709?phrase=deion sanders&adppopup=true"> Austin McAfee/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most college football coaches, the move from a mid-major conference to a Power Five conference would be met with widespread praise.</p>
<p>Not so for Deion Sanders.</p>
<p>When the Pro Football Hall of Famer <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/sports/ncaafootball/deion-sanders-colorado-jackson-state.html">announced he would be leaving Jackson State University</a>, where he has coached the football team since 2020, to become head coach at the University of Colorado Boulder, many ardent fans and supporters reacted with dismay and disbelief – particularly his fans and supporters from the Black community.</p>
<p>Jackson State is one of <a href="http://www.thehundred-seven.org/hbculist.html">107 historically Black colleges and universities</a>, or HBCUs. Some HBCU alumni and supporters <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6X9YNUMECA">saw Sanders as betraying the cause of rejuvenating HBCU sports</a> and returning them to a time when football greats such as <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceJe00.htm">Jerry Rice</a>, <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PaytWa00.htm">Walter Payton</a> and <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McNaSt00.htm">Steve McNair</a> attended HBCUs as a stepping stone to professional stardom. </p>
<p>Debates about whether he was a “<a href="https://eurweb.com/2022/deion-sanders-labelled-a-sellout/">sellout</a>,” a “traitor” and a “hypocrite” quickly surfaced on social media and in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/deion-sanders-sell-experts-say-s-complicated-rcna60552">major media outlets</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1599059649889640448"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4gfj6hYAAAAJ&hl=en">As a scholar who specializes in Black culture</a>, I was struck by the ways in which this Sanders story was tied to a concept I write about called <a href="https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/18433">clout-chasing</a>. It’s a process in which cultural capital is harnessed on social media to attract media attention, likes, followers and fame. You’ll often see young people looking to launch careers as content creators described as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/12/clout-definition-meme-influencers-social-capital-youtube/603895/">clout chasers</a>.</p>
<p>Institutions, however, can also chase clout. And I saw Jackson State doing just that when it hired Deion Sanders.</p>
<h2>Black Schools Matter</h2>
<p>Over the past decade – after the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement, the spread of national anthem protests and the murders of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor – HBCUs have received more attention and investment as places for the revitalization and advancement of the Black community.</p>
<p>In 2019, Black billionaire Robert Smith promised to pay the student loan debt of that year’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/22/morehouse-grads-thrive-after-student-debt-wiped-out.html#:%7E:text=It's%20something%20400%20Morehouse%20graduates,at%20their%20commencement%20in%202019">entire graduating class at Morehouse College</a>. In the summer of 2021, the Department of Education awarded <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/17/fact-sheet-the-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administrations-historic-investments-and-support-for-historically-black-colleges-and-universities/">more than US$500 million</a> in grants to HBCUs. Finally, President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan and other forms of pandemic relief have provided <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/17/fact-sheet-the-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administrations-historic-investments-and-support-for-historically-black-colleges-and-universities/">nearly $3.7 billion in relief funding to HBCUs</a>.</p>
<p>HBCU athletic departments have also received increased visibility. Though HBCU programs have always been overshadowed by schools in conferences like the Big Ten and SEC – what are known as <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10053822-ranking-the-college-football-power-5-conferences">Power Five conferences</a> – HBCU sports have started to receive more national television coverage. Top recruits <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/hbcus-appealing-high-profile-athletes/story?id=76210979">have started taking official visits to HBCUs</a> as they weigh which school to commit to. </p>
<p>In the summer of 2020, after star basketball recruit Makur Maker spurned offers from the University of Kentucky and UCLA to attend Howard University, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/sports/ncaabasketball/black-lives-matter-hbcus-college-athletes.html">The New York Times proclaimed</a> that a movement of top Black athletes attending HBCUs was underway.</p>
<h2>A star with staying power</h2>
<p>Like many, I grew up watching Deion Sanders play professional football and baseball. I idolized him. He wore gold chains, danced his way to the end zone, wore expensive suits and – most importantly – he was a celebrity who fully embraced Black popular culture. He was also one of the first athletes to understand that he was a brand off the field. </p>
<p>His appeal transcended race, gender and class, putting him in a rarefied group that includes Michael Jordan, Serena Williams and LeBron James.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two football players anticipate a pass." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over the course of 14 seasons, defensive back Deion Sanders was elected to eight Pro Bowls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dion-sanders-of-the-dallas-cowboys-guards-j-j-birden-of-the-news-photo/466184829?phrase=deion%20sanders&adppopup=true">Focus on Sport/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Even after his <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SandDe00.htm">playing career</a> ended in 2005, Sanders’ star never dimmed. He had <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/07/deion-sanders-oprah-winfrey-reality-show">his own reality show</a> produced by Oprah, has served as a regular analyst on the NFL Network, and has acted as a pitchman for companies like Nike, Under Armour, American Airlines and Aflac.</p>
<p>Sanders has also seamlessly adapted to the social media era, regularly posting videos on Instagram to <a href="https://www.instagram.com/deionsanders/?hl=en">an audience of 3 million followers</a>. </p>
<p>Simply put, he is still one of the most famous people in the world. Like his younger counterparts with huge online followings – digital natives like <a href="https://www.instagram.com/obj/?hl=en">Odell Beckham Jr.</a> and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/melo/?hl=en">LaMelo Ball</a> – Sanders possesses an immense amount of <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/intellect/ghhs/2020/00000001/00000002/art00003?crawler=true&mimetype=application/pdf&casa_token=G0nsPOIRXqcAAAAA:6Ze57p_2E_kNntxCNSQc-b2DzuWpJ_KtqTy2MG3po7wCLDq0n28IhvClUFvj-Afz1xhgwuKNKa0">digital clout</a>. </p>
<h2>Coach Prime joins the HBCU ranks</h2>
<p>I was hardly surprised when Sanders made a quick splash in Jackson. </p>
<p>Fueled by the talents of his son, quarterback <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4432762/shedeur-sanders">Shedeur Sanders</a>, and former top high school recruit <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10059142-5-star-cb-travis-hunter-to-transfer-from-jsu-comments-on-deion-sanders-colorado">Travis Hunter</a>, Jackson State quickly attracted national attention as a HBCU powerhouse.</p>
<p>After a COVID-shortened 2020 season, Sanders, whose players affectionately call him <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10058741-coach-prime-trailer-drops-for-deion-sanders-jsu-football-docuseries-by-prime-video">Coach Prime</a>, led the school to two consecutive appearances at the Celebration Bowl, an annual game in which the champions of the two prominent HBCU conferences face off.</p>
<p>While boosting Jackson State’s profile, Sanders also presented himself as someone scholars like Brandon J. Manning have termed a “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZxJClMVBYU">race man</a>,” or a loyal member of the Black race who dedicates their life to directly contributing to the betterment of Black people. </p>
<p>Under the pretense of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxI848ELSEE">looking out for the future of HBCU athletics</a>, <a href="https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=34896671">Sanders said</a> he would be better positioned than anybody to protect the legacy of HBCUs. Black student athletes, he argued, should choose to go to Jackson State because their association with him would not only give them clout, but also the kind of attention and encouragement that they could expect to receive from a Power Five program. </p>
<p>Yet it was always going to be close to impossible to keep Sanders at Jackson State if he consistently won. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/paul_finebaum_says_nick_saban_would_lose_sleep_over_deion_sanders_as_auburns_next_coach/s1_13132_37910995">Many suspected</a> that Sanders eventually wanted to compete against top-tier programs like the University of Alabama and the University of Georgia. In fact, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz1YfvAw5Ow">during an October 2022 interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes</a>,” Sanders talked openly about listening to offers from bigger schools. </p>
<p>Despite these realities, many Black folk wanted to believe Sanders would be in it for the long haul. Now they’re dismayed, believing the momentum Sanders gave to HBCU athletics could come to a screeching halt.</p>
<h2>God changes his mind</h2>
<p>But unlike some prominent <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkqKkW2SxeE">Black cultural critics who derided Sanders’ decision</a>, I don’t think he’s a sellout. </p>
<p>Jackson State was arguably chasing some clout of its own when it hired Deion in the first place. At the time, Sanders was a coach with no experience beyond the high school level. He did, however, have plenty of experience performing – and winning – in the brightest of spotlights. Jackson State probably knew that taking a flier on an untested celebrity coach would be worth it: It would attract attention and, with it, money.</p>
<p>On the flip side, I also believe Sanders knew that he could build his coaching clout further at Jackson State by appealing to what sociologist Saida Grundy calls <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520340398/respectable">the Black respectability politics</a> and Christian values of HBCU campuses. You could see this <a href="https://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/jackson-state/2020/09/22/deion-sanders-says-why-he-took-jackson-state-job-good-morning-america/5863325002/">when he said</a> that God told him “to even the playing field” for those who attend Black schools.</p>
<p>It was a symbiotic arrangement all along: Sanders leveraged his clout to grow the program that embraced him, but he was also hoping to attract the attention of an even bigger program. </p>
<p>I believe Sanders ultimately did more good than harm in terms of raising the profile of HBCU athletics. Furthermore, one person was never going to catapult HBCUs to the prominence of Power Five programs. </p>
<p>Sanders is part of a bigger group of former professional players and coaches leading HBCU programs. Former NFL head coach Hue Jackson <a href="https://www.thenewsstar.com/story/sports/college/gsu/2022/02/15/hue-jackson-contract-grambling-state-football/6800931001/">now heads the football program</a> at Grambling State University; NFL Pro Bowler Eddie George <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/college/2021/04/11/eddie-george-coach-tennessee-state-university-football-tsu-derrick-mason/7183662002/">currently mans the sidelines</a> at Tennessee State University; and Pro Football Hall of Famer <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35330809/hall-famer-ed-reed-head-coach-bethune-cookman">Ed Reed</a> was recently named the head coach at Bethune-Cookman. </p>
<p>If Sanders was a sellout, it was only in one sense: Jackson State football games routinely sold out during his tenure, <a href="https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/10/jackson-state-keeps-producing-jaw-dropping-attendance-under-coach-prime/">shattering attendance records for the program</a>.</p>
<p><em>This article has been edited to remove the mention of Cynthia Cooper-Dyke, who no longer serves as the head women’s basketball coach at Texas Southern University.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196792/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jabari M. Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Sanders deftly played the game of Black respectability politics during his short tenure, Jackson State had motives of its own when it hired the former NFL star.Jabari M. Evans, Assistant Professor of Race and Media, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1967132022-12-20T13:36:46Z2022-12-20T13:36:46Z2022’s US climate disasters, from storms and floods to heat waves and droughts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501982/original/file-20221219-16-o96kqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=500%2C20%2C1732%2C1091&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rain and fast snowmelt sent the Yellowstone River and nearby streams raging beyond their banks in June 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/YEClimateChangePhotos2022/647437279ccf446abe297139183af11f/photo">AP Photo/David Goldman</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2022 will be remembered across the U.S. for its devastating flooding and storms – and also for its extreme heat waves and droughts.</p>
<p>The nation saw <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/2022?disasters%5B%5D=all-disasters">18 disasters</a> that caused more than US$1 billion in damage each, well above the average. The year started and ended with widespread severe winter storms from Texas to Maine, affecting tens of million of people and causing significant damages. Then, March <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/march-sets-record-tornado-reports-rcna22537">set the record</a> for the most reported <a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-climate-change-and-why-dixie-is-the-new-tornado-alley-178863">tornadoes</a> in the month – 233.</p>
<p>During a period of five weeks over the summer, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/23/flood-united-states-climate-explainer/">five 1,000-year rainfall events</a> occurred in <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lsx/July262022Flooding">St. Louis</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">eastern Kentucky</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/illinois-flash-flooding-rain-climate-change-184218523.html">southern Illinois</a>, California’s <a href="https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/news/death-valley-experiences-1-000-year-rain-event.htm">Death Valley</a> and <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/22/dallas-flooding-fort-worth/">Dallas</a>, causing devastating and sometimes deadly flash floods. Severe flooding in Mississippi <a href="https://theconversation.com/intense-heat-and-flooding-are-wreaking-havoc-on-power-and-water-systems-as-climate-change-batters-americas-aging-infrastructure-189761">knocked out Jackson’s troubled water supply</a> for weeks. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">historic flood in Montana</a>, brought on by heavy rain and melting snow, forced large areas of Yellowstone National Park to be evacuated. </p>
<p>In the fall, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneIan">hurricanes Ian</a> and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/sju/fiona2022">Fiona</a> deluged Florida and Puerto Rico with over 2 feet (0.6 meters) of rain in areas and deadly, destructive storm surge. Ian became <a href="https://apnews.com/article/floods-europe-pakistan-climate-and-environment-87a354ddc9f2333e3175d0578c50a592">one of the most expensive</a> hurricanes in U.S. history. And a <a href="https://theconversation.com/typhoon-merbok-fueled-by-unusually-warm-pacific-ocean-pounded-alaskas-vulnerable-coastal-communities-at-a-critical-time-190898">typhoon pounded</a> 1,000 miles (1,600 km) of the Alaska coast. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A girl in rain boots walks through a mud-filled yard. Damaged mattresses and other belongings from a flooded house are piled nearby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flash flooding swept through mountain valleys in eastern Kentucky in July 2022, killing more than three dozen people. It was one of several destructive flash floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/local-fire-chief-and-his-daughter-drop-off-goods-for-a-news-photo/1242236541">Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>While too much rainfall threatened some regions, extreme heat and too little precipitation worsened risks elsewhere.</p>
<p>Persistent heat waves lingered over many parts of the country, setting temperature records. Wildfires raged in <a href="https://tucson.com/news/local/photos-wildfires-in-arizona-2022/collection_6555f988-c4dd-11ec-a7da-effb4de9da49.html#1">Arizona</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/10/business/new-mexico-climate-change-wildfires-floods.html">New Mexico</a> on the background of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01290-z">megadrought in the Southwestern U.S.</a> more severe than anything the region has experienced in at least 1,200 years. </p>
<p>Drought also left the <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-low-water-levels-on-the-mississippi-river-in-2022-show-how-climate-change-is-altering-large-rivers-193920">Mississippi River so low</a> near Memphis in the fall that barges couldn’t get through without additional dredging and upstream water releases. That snarled grain shipping during the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-mississippi-river-drought-global-impact/?sref=Hjm5biAW">critical harvest period</a>. Along the Colorado River, officials discussed even tighter water use restrictions as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/17/colorado-river-crisis-conference/">water levels neared dangerously low levels</a> in the major reservoirs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing disasters, including several severe storms" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503887/original/file-20230110-13-zrsvbi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2022 had 18 disasters that exceeded $1 billion each in damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">NCEI/NOAA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The United States was hardly alone in its climate disasters.</p>
<p>In Pakistan, <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">record monsoon rains</a> inundated more than one-third of the country, killing over 1,500 people. In <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/08/01/living-through-indias-next-level-heat-wave">India</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/07/china-reports-most-severe-heatwave-and-lowest-rainfall-on-record">China</a>, prolonged heat waves and droughts dried up rivers, disrupted power grids and threatened food security for billions of people. Widespread flooding and mudslides brought on by torrential rains also killed hundreds of people <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/africa/south-africa-floods-climate-intl/index.html">in South Africa</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/death-toll-brazilian-floods-rises-57-thousands-displaced-2022-05-29/">Brazil</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/world/africa/nigeria-floods.html">Nigeria</a>.</p>
<p>In Europe, heat waves set record temperatures <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/28/human-caused-climate-change-made-uk-heat-wave-10-times-more-likely-study-says/">in Britain</a> and other parts of the continent, leading to severe droughts, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/13/europes-rivers-run-dry-as-scientists-warn-drought-could-be-worst-in-500-years">low river flows that slowed shipping</a>, and wildfires in many parts of the continent. Much of East Africa is still in the grips of a multiyear drought – the <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1131107">worst in over 40 years</a>, according to the United Nations – leaving millions of people vulnerable to food shortages and starvation. The last eight years have been the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213">warmest in over 140 years</a> of record-keeping.</p>
<p>This isn’t just a freak year: Such extreme events are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity.</p>
<h2>Climate change is intensifying these disasters</h2>
<p>The most <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">recent global climate assessment</a> from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found significant increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events, leading to more droughts and floods.</p>
<p>Extreme flooding and droughts are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5">getting deadlier and more expensive</a>, despite an improving capacity to manage climate risks, a study published in 2022 found. Part of the reason is that today’s extreme events, enhanced by climate change, often exceed communities’ management capabilities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman with her eyes closed holds a screaming 1-year-old boy in a National Guard helicopter, with a guard member standing in the open helicopter door." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A family had to be airlifted from their home in eastern Kentucky after it was surrounded by floodwater in July 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/command-sergeant-major-tim-lewis-of-the-kentucky-national-news-photo/1242203173">Michael Swensen/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Extreme events, by definition, occur rarely. A 100-year flood has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. So when such events occur with increasing frequency and intensity, they are a clear indication of a changing climate state.</p>
<h2>Climate models showed these risks were coming</h2>
<p>Much of this is well understood and consistently reproduced by climate models.</p>
<p>As the climate warms, a shift in temperature distribution leads to more extremes. For example, globally, a 1 degree Celsius increase in annual average temperature is associated with a 1.2 C to 1.9 C (2.1 Fahrenheit to 3.4 F) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf">increase in the annual maximum temperature</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man works on a car with an older mechanic in overalls standing next to him under the shade of a large beach umbrealla." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat waves, like the heat dome over the South in July 2022, can hit outdoor workers especially hard.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/community-mechanic-lloyd-bush-works-on-a-neighbors-vehicle-news-photo/1410189284">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition, global warming leads to changes in how the atmosphere and ocean move. The temperature difference between the equator and the poles is the driving force for global wind. As the polar regions warm at much higher rates than the equator, the reduced temperature difference causes a weakening of global winds and leads to a <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/global-stilling-is-climate-change-slowing-the-worlds-wind">more meandering jet stream</a>.</p>
<p>Some of these changes can create conditions such as persistent high-pressure systems and atmospheric blocking that bring more intense heat waves. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-heat-dome-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-the-weather-phenomenon-baking-california-and-the-west-185569">heat domes</a> over the Southern Plains and South in June and in the West in September were both examples.</p>
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<p>Warming can be further amplified by positive feedbacks.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202212">higher temperatures</a> tend to dry out the soil, and less soil moisture reduces the land’s heat capacity, making it easier to heat up. More frequent and persistent heat waves lead to excessive evaporation, combined with decreased precipitation in some regions, causing more severe droughts and more frequent wildfires. </p>
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<p>Higher temperatures <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">increase the atmosphere’s capacity</a> to hold moisture at a rate of about 7% per degree Celsius. This increased humidity leads to heavier rainfall events. </p>
<p>In addition, storm systems are <a href="https://thinktv.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/nves.sci.earth.hurricane/water-vapor-fuels-hurricanes/">fueled by latent heat</a> – the large amount of energy released when water vapor condenses to liquid water. Increased moisture content in the atmosphere also enhances latent heat in storm systems, increasing their intensity. Extreme heavy or persistent rainfall leads to increased flooding and landslides, with devastating social and economic consequences.</p>
<p>Even though it’s difficult to link specific extreme events directly to climate change, when these supposedly rare events occur with greater frequency in a warming world, it is hard to ignore the changing state of our climate. </p>
<h2>The new abnormal</h2>
<p>This year might provide a glimpse of our near future, as these extreme climate events become more frequent.</p>
<p>To say this is the “new normal,” though, is misleading. It suggests that we have reached a new stable state, and that is far from the truth. Without serious effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions, this trend toward more extreme events will continue. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated Jan. 12, 2023, with the release of NOAA’s billion-dollar disaster list and global temperatures for 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Millions of people around the world suffered through deadly flooding and long-lasting heat waves in 2022. A climate scientist explains the rising risks.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1907302022-10-10T12:15:54Z2022-10-10T12:15:54ZHow to steer money for drinking water and sewer upgrades to the communities that need it most<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488598/original/file-20221006-22-6iz8pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C18%2C5979%2C3989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Raw sewage bubbles up in the front yard of a home in Jackson, Mississippi, on Oct. 20, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/raw-sewage-bubbles-up-in-the-front-yard-of-a-home-in-news-photo/1236532470">Rory Doyle/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When storms like <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-ian-florida-updates-09-28-22/index.html">Hurricane Ian</a> strike, many people have to cope afterward with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/us/florida-water-hurricane-ian.html">losing water service</a>. Power outages mean that pumps can’t process and treat drinking water or sewage, and heavy stormwater flows can damage water mains. </p>
<p>Ian’s effects echoed a similar disaster in Jackson, Mississippi, where rising river water overwhelmed pumps at the main water treatment plant on Aug. 29, 2022, following record-setting rain. The city had little to no running water for a week, and more than <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/jackson-mississippi-water-crisis-prompts-lawsuit-city-siemens-2022-09-19/">180,000 residents</a> were forced to find bottled water for drinking and cooking. Even after water pressure returned, many Jackson residents <a href="https://www.wapt.com/article/jackson-residents-still-hesitant-days-after-boil-water-advisory-lifts/41272966#">continued to boil their water</a>, questioning whether it was really safe to drink.</p>
<p>Jackson had already been under a boil-water notice for more than a month before the crisis, which arrived like a slow-motion bullet to the city’s <a href="https://time.com/6209710/jackson-mississippi-water-crisis/">long-decaying infrastructure</a>. Now, Jackson and its contractors face lawsuits and a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-09/Certified_Notification%20Memo%20Jackson%20Miss-FINAL_NNMsignature.pdf">federal investigation</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This 2021 episode of ‘60 Minutes’ explores Jackson, Mississippi, residents’ frustration with their city’s long-running water problems.</span></figcaption>
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<p>We study <a href="https://uwm.edu/freshwater/people/scanlan-melissa/">water policy</a> with a focus on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/leeandrian/">providing equitable access to clean water</a>. Our research shows that disadvantaged communities <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4128452">have suffered disproportionately</a> from underinvestment in clean and affordable water. </p>
<p>However, a historic increase in federal water infrastructure funding is coming over the next five years, thanks to the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/bipartisan-infrastructure-law/">Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> that was enacted in 2021. </p>
<p>If this funding is managed smartly, we believe it can start to right these wrongs.</p>
<h2>A complex funding mix</h2>
<p>Water infrastructure has two parts. Drinking water systems bring people clean water that has been purified for drinking and other uses. Wastewater systems carry away sewage and treat it before returning it to rivers, lakes or the ocean. </p>
<p>Money to build and maintain these systems comes from a mix of federal, state and local sources. Over the past 50 years, policymakers have debated <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/96-647">how much each level of government should contribute</a>, and what fraction should come from the most prized source: federal money that does not need to be repaid.</p>
<p>The 1972 <a href="https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-clean-water-act">Clean Water Act</a> created a federal grant program, managed by the Environmental Protection Agency, to help states and municipalities build wastewater treatment plants. Under the program, federal subsidies initially <a href="https://www.congress.gov/92/statute/STATUTE-86/STATUTE-86-Pg816.pdf">covered 75% of project costs</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of water treatment tanks and gas digesters on a peninsula surrounded by ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=214&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488602/original/file-20221006-20-7tvd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Deer Island water treatment plant in Boston began operation in 1995. It treats wastewater from towns across greater Boston and discharges cleaned effluent into the Atlantic Ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Deer_Island_Waste_Water_Treatment_Plant_aerial.jpg">Doc Searls/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In the 1980s, the Reagan Administration challenged this arrangement. Conservatives argued that the grant program’s main purpose – addressing the need for more municipal wastewater treatment – had been fulfilled.</p>
<p>In 1987, Congress <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/96-647.pdf">replaced wastewater grants</a> with a loan program called the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/cwsrf">Clean Water State Revolving Fund</a>, which still operates today. The EPA uses the fund to provide seed money to states, which offer low-interest loans to local governments to build and maintain wastewater treatment plants. Congress created a corresponding program, the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/dwsrf">Drinking Water State Revolving Fund</a>, in 1996 to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/archive/epa/aboutepa/president-clinton-signs-legislation-ensure-americans-safe-drinking-water.html">fund drinking water infrastructure</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, U.S. water infrastructure now is funded by a mix of loans that must be repaid, principal forgiveness awards and grants that do not require repayment, and fees paid by local users. The larger the share that can be shifted into grants and principal forgiveness, the less pressure on local ratepayers to foot the bill for long-term infrastructure investments.</p>
<h2>What’s in the infrastructure law</h2>
<p>The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act authorizes more than <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2021-11/e-ow-bid-fact-sheet-final.508.pdf">US$50 billion</a> for water infrastructure over the next five years. This won’t close the gap in funding needs, which the EPA has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2018-10/documents/corrected_sixth_drinking_water_infrastructure_needs_survey_and_assessment.pdf">estimated at $472.6 billion</a> from 2015 through 2034 just for drinking water systems. But it could support tangible improvements.</p>
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<p>When water systems that serve low-income communities borrow money from state programs, even at low interest rates, they have to pay the loans off by raising rates on customers who already struggle to pay their bills. To reduce this burden, federal law allows state programs to provide “disadvantaged communities” additional subsidies in the form of principal forgiveness and grants. However, states have broad discretion in determining who qualifies. </p>
<p>The infrastructure law requires that <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-03/bil-srf-memo-fact-sheet-final.pdf">49% of federal funding</a> for both drinking water and wastewater infrastructure must be awarded as additional subsidies to disadvantaged communities. In other words, almost half the money that states receive in federal funds must be awarded as principal forgiveness or outright grants to disadvantaged communities.</p>
<h2>Who counts as ‘disadvantaged’?</h2>
<p>In March 2022, the EPA released a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-03/combined_srf-implementation-memo_final_03.2022.pdf">memorandum</a> that calls the infrastructure law a “unique opportunity” to “invest in communities that have too often been left behind – from rural towns to struggling cities.” The agency pledged to work with states, tribes and territories to ensure the promised 49% of supplemental funding reaches communities where the need is greatest. </p>
<p>This is an issue where the devil truly is in the details.</p>
<p>For example, under Mississippi’s definition of “disadvantaged community,” Jackson’s 2021 award for principal forgiveness was capped at 25% of the original principal. In its March 2022 memorandum, the EPA identified such caps as obstacles for under-resourced communities.</p>
<p>Mississippi appears to have responded by using a new standard for funds coming from the infrastructure law. Beginning this year, communities whose median household income is lower than the state median household income – including Jackson – will be awarded <a href="https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/resources/17153.pdf">100% principal forgiveness</a>, which makes the funding effectively a grant.</p>
<p>Additionally, the EPA discourages using population as a factor to define “disadvantaged communities.” Communities with smaller populations struggle to cover water systems’ operating costs, so that challenge is important to consider. But using population as a determining factor penalizes larger cities that may otherwise be disadvantaged. </p>
<p>For example, in 2021, when determining principal forgiveness, Wisconsin awarded a higher financial need score to communities with populations below 10,000. This penalized Milwaukee, the state’s largest city, with almost a quarter of its people experiencing poverty. </p>
<p>In September 2022, Wisconsin updated its definition to consider <a href="https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/sites/default/files/topic/Aid/loans/intendedUsePlan/SDWLP_SFY2023_IUP.pdf">additional factors</a>, such as county unemployment rate and family poverty percentage. With these changes, Milwaukee now qualifies for the maximum principal forgiveness.</p>
<p>Mississippi and Wisconsin previously relied on factors too narrow to reach many disadvantaged communities. We hope the steps they have taken to update their programs will inspire similar actions from other states. </p>
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<h2>Getting the word out</h2>
<p>In our view, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to correct decades of underinvestment in disadvantaged communities, especially with the EPA pushing the states to do so. </p>
<p>Historically under-resourced communities may not be aware of these state program funds, or know how to apply for them, or carry out infrastructure improvements. We believe the EPA should direct states that receive federal funds to help under-resourced communities apply for and use the money.</p>
<p>Recent events in Jackson and Florida show how <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/31/jackson-water-crisis-mississippi-floods/">natural disasters can overwhelm water systems</a>, especially older networks that have been declining for years. As climate change <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/">amplifies storms and flooding</a>, we see investing in water systems as a priority for public health and environmental justice across the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Scanlan is affiliated with Midwest Environmental Advocates, a non-profit environmental law center.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrian Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Congress has approved billions of dollars to fix water and sewer systems across the US. But getting that money to needy communities depends on how states define a key word.Andrian Lee, Water Policy Specialist, University of Wisconsin-MilwaukeeMelissa Scanlan, Professor and Director of the Center for Water Policy, School of Freshwater Sciences, University of Wisconsin-MilwaukeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906362022-09-21T13:01:42Z2022-09-21T13:01:42ZLooking back on America’s summer of heat, floods and climate change: Welcome to the new abnormal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485658/original/file-20220920-11061-c1zwpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C116%2C5958%2C3855&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Much of the South and Southern Plains faced a dangerous heat wave in July 2022, with highs well over 100 degrees for several days.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/johnny-bouldin-sits-outside-of-his-home-during-a-heatwave-news-photo/1410189259">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The summer of 2022 started with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">historic flood in Montana</a>, brought on by heavy rain and melting snow, that tore up roads and caused large areas of Yellowstone National Park to be evacuated. </p>
<p>It ended with a record-breaking heat wave in California and much of the West that pushed the <a href="https://theconversation.com/intense-heat-and-flooding-are-wreaking-havoc-on-power-and-water-systems-as-climate-change-batters-americas-aging-infrastructure-189761">power grid to the breaking point</a>, causing <a href="https://www.kron4.com/weather/san-jose-mayor-blasts-pge-for-heat-wave-power-outages/">blackouts</a>, followed by a tropical storm that <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-09-09/tropical-storm-kay-southern-california-mexico-heat-wave">set rainfall records</a> in southern California. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/typhoon-merbok-fueled-by-unusually-warm-pacific-ocean-pounded-alaskas-vulnerable-coastal-communities-at-a-critical-time-190898">typhoon flooded</a> coastal Alaska, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/19/climate/puerto-rico-hurricane-fiona.html">a hurricane</a> hit Puerto Rico with more than <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/fiona-rainfall-totals-in-puerto-rico-rival-hurricane-marias-downpours/1249695">30 inches of rain</a>.</p>
<p>In between, wildfires raged through California, Arizona and New Mexico on the background of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01290-z">megadrought in Southwestern U.S.</a> that has been more severe than anything the region has experienced in at least 1,200 years. Near Albuquerque, New Mexico, a five-mile stretch of the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150244/rio-grande-runs-dry-then-wet">Rio Grande ran dry</a> for the first time in 40 years. Persistent heat waves lingered over many parts of the country, setting temperature records.</p>
<p>At the same time, during a period of five weeks between July and August, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/23/flood-united-states-climate-explainer/">five 1,000-year rainfall events</a> occurred in <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lsx/July262022Flooding">St. Louis</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">eastern Kentucky</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/illinois-flash-flooding-rain-climate-change-184218523.html">southern Illinois</a>, California’s <a href="https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/news/death-valley-experiences-1-000-year-rain-event.htm">Death Valley</a> and in <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/22/dallas-flooding-fort-worth/">Dallas</a>, causing devastating and sometimes deadly flash floods. Extreme rainfall also led to severe flooding in <a href="https://theconversation.com/intense-heat-and-flooding-are-wreaking-havoc-on-power-and-water-systems-as-climate-change-batters-americas-aging-infrastructure-189761">Mississippi</a>, <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/07/14/virginia-flooding-damages-more-100-homes-and-leaves-40-people-unaccounted-for">Virginia</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/west-virginia-flash-floods.html">West Virginia</a>.</p>
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<p>The United States is hardly alone in its share of climate disasters. </p>
<p>In Pakistan, <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">record monsoon rains</a> inundated more than one-third of the country, killing over 1,500 people. In <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/08/01/living-through-indias-next-level-heat-wave">India</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/07/china-reports-most-severe-heatwave-and-lowest-rainfall-on-record">China</a>, prolonged heat waves and droughts dried up rivers, disrupted power grids and threatened food security for billions of people.</p>
<p>In Europe, heat waves set record temperatures <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/28/human-caused-climate-change-made-uk-heat-wave-10-times-more-likely-study-says/">in Britain</a> and other places, leading to severe droughts and wildfires in many parts of the continent. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/africa/south-africa-floods-climate-intl/index.html">In South Africa</a>, torrential rains brought flooding and mudslides that killed more than 400 people. The summer may have come to an end on the calendar, but climate disasters will surely continue.</p>
<p>This isn’t just a freak summer: Over the years, such extreme events are occurring in increasing frequency and intensity.</p>
<h2>Climate change is intensifying these disasters</h2>
<p>The most <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">recent international climate assessment</a> from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found significant increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events, leading to more droughts and floods.</p>
<p>A recent study published in the scientific journal Nature found that extreme flooding and droughts are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5">getting deadlier and more expensive</a>, despite an improving capacity to manage climate risks. This is because these extreme events, enhanced by climate change, often exceed the designed levels of such management strategies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A girl in rain boots walks through a mud-filled yard. Damaged mattresses and other belongings from a flooded house are piled nearby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484438/original/file-20220913-14-z0q39y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flash flooding swept through mountain valleys in eastern Kentucky in July 2022, killing more than three dozen people. It was one of several destructive flash floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/local-fire-chief-and-his-daughter-drop-off-goods-for-a-news-photo/1242236541">Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Extreme events, by definition, occur rarely. A 100-year flood has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. So, when such events occur with increasing frequency and intensity, they are a clear indication of a changing climate state.</p>
<p>The term “global warming” can sometimes be misleading, as it seems to suggest that as humans put more <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">heat-trapping greenhouse gases</a> into the atmosphere, the world is going to get a bit warmer everywhere. What it fails to convey is that warming temperatures also lead to a more violent world with more extreme climate disasters, as we saw this past summer.</p>
<h2>Climate models showed these risks were coming</h2>
<p>Much of this is well-understood and consistently reproduced by climate models.</p>
<p>As the climate warms, a shift in temperature distribution leads to more extremes. The magnitudes of changes in extreme temperature are often larger than changes in the mean. For example, globally, a 1 degree Celsius increase in annual average temperature is associated with 1.2 C to 1.9 C (2.1 Fahrenheit to 3.4 F) of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf">increase in the annual maximum temperature</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man works on a car with an older mechanic in overalls standing next to him under the shade of a large beach umbrealla." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485653/original/file-20220920-11202-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat waves, like the heat dome over the South in July 2022, can hit outdoor workers especially hard.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/community-mechanic-lloyd-bush-works-on-a-neighbors-vehicle-news-photo/1410189284">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition, global warming causes changes in the vertical profile of the atmosphere and equator-to-pole temperature gradients, leading to changes in how the atmosphere and ocean move. The temperature difference between equator and the poles is the driving force for global wind. As the polar regions warm at much higher rates then the equator, the reduced temperature difference causes a weakening of global winds and leads to a <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/global-stilling-is-climate-change-slowing-the-worlds-wind">more meandering jet stream</a>.</p>
<p>Some of these changes can create conditions such as persistent high-pressure systems and atmosphere blocking that favor more frequent and more intense heat waves. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-heat-dome-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-the-weather-phenomenon-baking-california-and-the-west-185569">heat domes</a> over the Southern Plains and South in June and the West in September are examples.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1538941467686756352"}"></div></p>
<p>The initial warming can be further amplified by positive feedbacks. For example, warming increases snow melt, exposing dark soil underneath, which absorbs more heat than snow, further enhancing the warming. </p>
<p>Warming of the atmosphere also increases its capacity to hold water vapor, which is a strong greenhouse gas. Therefore, more water vapor in the air leads to more warming. Higher temperatures tend to dry out the soil, and less soil moisture reduces the land’s heat capacity, making it easier to heat up. </p>
<p>These positive feedbacks further intensify the initial warming, leading to more heat extremes. More frequent and persistent heat waves lead to excessive evaporation, combined with decreased precipitation in some regions, causing more severe droughts and more frequent wildfires.</p>
<p><iframe id="zBAAz" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zBAAz/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Higher temperatures <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">increase the atmosphere’s capacity</a> to hold moisture at a rate of about 7% per degree Celsius.</p>
<p>This increased humidity leads to heavier rainfall events. In addition, storm systems are <a href="https://thinktv.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/nves.sci.earth.hurricane/water-vapor-fuels-hurricanes/">fueled by latent heat</a>, or the large amount of energy released when water vapor condenses to liquid water. Increased moisture content in the atmosphere also enhances latent heat in storm systems, increasing their intensity. Extreme heavy or persistent rainfall leads to increased flooding and landslides, with devastating social and economic consequences.</p>
<p>Even though it’s difficult to link specific extreme events directly to climate change, when these supposedly rare events occur with increasing frequency in a warming world, it is hard to ignore the changing state of our climate. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman with her eyes closed holds a screaming 1-year-old boy in a National Guard helicopter, with a guardsman standing in the open helicopter door." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485651/original/file-20220920-14-jz4qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A family had to be airlifted from their home in eastern Kentucky after it was surrounded by floodwater in July 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/command-sergeant-major-tim-lewis-of-the-kentucky-national-news-photo/1242203173">Michael Swensen/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The new abnormal</h2>
<p>So this past summer might just provide a glimpse of our near future, as these extreme climate events become more frequent.</p>
<p>To say this is the new “normal,” though, is misleading. It suggests that we have reached a new stable state, and that is far from the truth.</p>
<p>Without serious effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions, this trend toward more extreme events will continue. Things will keep getting worse, and this past summer will become the norm a few years or decades down the road – and eventually, it will seem mild, like one of those “nice summers” we look back on fondly with nostalgia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Millions of people around the world suffered through long-lasting heat waves and deadly flash flooding in the summer of 2022. A climate scientist explains the rising risks.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1771252022-03-24T12:15:39Z2022-03-24T12:15:39ZMarch Madness stars can now cash in on endorsements – but some limits set by states and universities may still be unconstitutional<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453994/original/file-20220323-30834-1r5d3oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C106%2C4347%2C2836&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gonzaga forward Drew Timme's mustache – and his basketball skills – helped him earn an endorsement from Dollar Shave Club.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NCAAMemphisGonzagaBasketball/f8b7de5e82334dd09a8fb4d4d2ab2a5f/photo?Query=Drew%20Timme&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=841&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Craig Mitchelldyer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March Madness is proving lucrative for some of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-is-the-media-buzz-from-a-march-madness-cinderella-run-worth-to-a-school-like-saint-peters-179742">Cinderella stories</a> and standout stars, thanks to a 2021 <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=18386472160721780784">Supreme Court ruling</a> that led the NCAA <a href="https://www.gfrlaw.com/what-we-do/insights/college-athletes-beat-ncaa-supreme-court-9-nil-allowing-endorsements">to end its longstanding ban</a> on student athletes earning money from endorsement deals. </p>
<p>Doug “Dougie Buckets” Edert, who led the Saint Peter’s Peacocks to their first ever Sweet 16 appearance <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket">on March 25, 2022</a>, has already <a href="https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2022/03/23/saint-peters-guard-signs-nil-deal-with-buffalo-wild-wings">signed deals</a> with <a href="https://twitter.com/FOS/status/1506628145910276101">Buffalo Wild Wings</a> and sports site <a href="https://twitter.com/FOS/status/1506634718321823757">Barstool</a>. Drew Timme, the mustachioed star forward at Gonzaga, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/sky-limit-march-madness-stars-150148714.html">agreed to use his whiskers</a> to sell razors for Dollar Shave Club. And Deja Kelly, a star sophomore at the University of North Carolina, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/02/16/sports/dunkin-signs-its-first-college-athletes-endorsement-deals/">became one of Dunkin’s’ first</a> college endorsements in February when she agreed to promote the brand’s doughnuts and coffee. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court ruling doesn’t mean anything goes. The NCAA’s <a href="https://www.ncaa.org/news/2021/6/30/ncaa-adopts-interim-name-image-and-likeness-policy.aspx">new endorsement policy</a> simply pushes its authority over so-called name, image and likeness deals to universities and states. And many have established their own policies both regarding what deals college athletes can enter into and, perhaps more importantly, what deals college athletes can’t enter into. </p>
<p>At least 92 universities <a href="https://businessofcollegesports.com/tracker-nil-policies-by-institution">have created rules governing</a> what kinds of deals athletes can enter into. And 25 states <a href="https://businessofcollegesports.com/tracker-name-image-and-likeness-legislation-by-state/">have passed laws</a> or issued executive orders that affect all public and private schools under their jurisdiction. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kvBKEkUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We study</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NbVWe8cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">the interaction</a> between sports and law. While many of these endorsement deal restrictions are innocuous, such as <a href="https://www.the33rdteam.com/nil-update-policy-breakdowns-for-the-five-states-that-begin-on-july-1/">requiring financial literacy classes</a>, we believe others may actually be unconstitutional.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black woman wearing a blue jersey jumps as she holds a basketball in her hands and prepares to shoot it over another woman's outstretched arm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UNC star Deja Kelly inked a deal to promote Dunkin’ doughnuts and coffee.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NorthCarolinaNCStateBasketball/a7e8c121fa8243f29f3c34e090ebb237/photo?Query=Deja%20Kelly&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=41&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/Karl B. DeBlaker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Letting ‘amateurs’ profit from their name</h2>
<p>The NCAA <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/06/15/nil-ncaa-paying-college-athletes/">had long prohibited student athletes</a> from profiting off their image. The idea is grounded in the notion that they’re amateurs, not professionals. </p>
<p>Responding to growing calls to change the policy, the college sports governing body <a href="https://www.ncaa.org/news/2019/10/29/board-of-governors-starts-process-to-enhance-name-image-and-likeness-opportunities.aspx">agreed in 2019 to do so</a> and asked regional divisions to draft new rules and restrictions. Meanwhile, states, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/california-lawmakers-voted-to-let-ncaa-athletes-get-paid-its-unclear-whats-next/2019/09/10/80d0a324-d3e6-11e9-9343-40db57cf6abd_story.html">notably California</a>, were already passing laws to allow athletes to earn money off their names. </p>
<p>In June 2021, the Supreme Court <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=18386472160721780784">ruled the NCAA couldn’t limit the kinds</a> of benefits universities offer students. That prompted the NCAA to simply drop the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2020/11/13/ncaa-nil-name-image-likeness-proposal/6281507002/">draft policy</a> governing name, image and likeness deals it had been working on rather than risk further litigation. </p>
<p>In doing so, the NCAA left it up to states or individual universities to establish their own rules. That opened the door for college athletes across the country to begin signing endorsement deals – as long as they don’t run afoul of rules at their school or in their state.</p>
<p>While the NCAA <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=10849297194755368230">is considered a private entity</a> not bound by the First Amendment, states and public schools are. That means any restrictions they place on athletes’ endorsements – a form of commercial speech <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=16793921065105715309">afforded some protection by the Constitution</a> – need to respect athletes’ free speech rights. </p>
<h2>The most problematic restrictions</h2>
<p>Broadly speaking, we see three types of restrictions that appear problematic. The first type prevents deals with brands that are rivals of one that already has a deal with a university. The second group forbids contracts with “vice” industries like alcohol and gambling. And the third prohibits partnerships with anything that might reflect poorly on the educational institution. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://governor.ky.gov/attachments/20210624_Executive-Order_2021-418_Student-Athletes.pdf">2021 Kentucky executive order</a> is an example of the first kind. The governor’s order, <a href="https://www.lanereport.com/153350/2022/03/name-image-likeness-is-now-law-in-kentucky/">now codified into law</a>, explicitly allows athletes to get paid for likeness deals unless the university determines it “is in conflict with an existing contract of endorsement, promotional or other activity entered by the postsecondary educational institution.” In other words, if the school already had an endorsement deal with a company, an athlete can’t sign one with a rival.</p>
<p>For example, athletes at the University of Kentucky, which <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/local/education/article177171821.html">is sponsored by Nike</a>, legally can’t sign up for <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/adidas-announces-new-network-that-will-allow-more-than-50000-student-athletes-to-be-paid-ambassadors-.html">Adidas’ new program to share sales</a> of its products with student athletes who drive traffic to its website if Adidas wanted to open up this program to these athletes. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://wvusports.com/documents/2021/7/8//NIL_Policy_WVU_7_1_2021.pdf?id=21271">West Virginia University policy</a> illustrates the second restriction. The school’s guidelines, released on July 1, 2021, explicitly forbid athletes from deals associated with alcohol, gambling, banned substances, adult entertainment and other “vice” businesses. </p>
<p>The third kind poses what we believe are the most glaring First Amendment issues. An example of this is <a href="https://legiscan.com/MS/text/SB2313/id/2351829">Mississippi’s state law</a>, which flatly forbids athletes from signing deals with any product or service that is “reasonably considered to be inconsistent with the values or mission of a postsecondary educational institution or that negatively impacts or reflects adversely on a postsecondary education institution or its athletic programs.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young white man wearing a saint peter's basketball jersey uses a scissors to cut the net off of a basketball hoop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=83%2C0%2C4971%2C3258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Doug Edert won an endorsement deal with Buffalo Wild Wings for his part in taking Saint Peter’s to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA college basketball tournament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MAACMonmouthStPetersBasketball/046016718b57458db7fe7ccbf2be7281/photo?Query=Doug%20edert&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2 thorny legal issues</h2>
<p>Two legal concepts reveal the problems with these restrictions: “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/prior_restraint">prior restraint</a>” and “<a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1005/overbreadth">overbreadth</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=14051829728005364054">Courts</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=10240616562166401834">are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=17571244799664973711">unanimous</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=5179591971825287612">in their</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=200006">disapproval</a> when government entities – <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=14594875101335864684">including public universities</a> – restrict speech before it happens, rather than punish speakers for objectionable and unprotected speech after it is made. </p>
<p>That’s why a prior restraint – like a policy that prevents athletes from signing certain types of endorsement deals - will be scrutinized more heavily by courts than if, say, a school simply forces an athlete to stop endorsing an objectionable product after the fact. While that doesn’t mean a prior restraint is never allowed, courts would require schools to show they have a very good reason to have the restriction.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=15763855873494372375">Courts also don’t like it</a> when restrictions on speech are written too broadly, meaning that they affect speech other than the intended target. In the university context, you can see this legal concept in action in campus speech codes. For example, a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=500746032283305681">1995 appellate court ruling struck down</a> a Michigan school’s campus speech code because it gave university officials too much power to determine what is deemed offensive – which meant they could hypothetically use the policy to restrict the most protected form of speech: political speech. </p>
<p>All three restrictions listed above could potentially be broad enough to cover political speech. But it’s the third category that poses the biggest problems because of the vagueness of language like “reasonably considered to be inconsistent with the values or mission of a postsecondary educational institution or that negatively impacts or reflects adversely on a postsecondary education institution or its athletic programs.” Virtually any endorsement an athlete might consider could be deemed “inconsistent” with the values of a university. </p>
<p>It’s not surprising that schools wouldn’t want to be linked to a provocative company or a product they consider inappropriate. But granting administrators too much editorial power over the kinds of deals athletes are allowed to sign can easily stray into the kinds of areas that the Constitution explicitly protects. And a promise to use the power responsibly <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=12907128943316010890">is unlikely to survive Supreme Court scrutiny</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, you’re asking athletes to trade their First Amendment freedoms in exchange for their newfound right to profit from their skills on the field or court. In our view, the Supreme Court is unlikely to find that an acceptable trade-off.</p>
<p>[<em>Science, politics, religion or just plain interesting articles:</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-checkoutweekly">Check out The Conversation’s weekly newsletters</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>States and universities have passed many rules governing what types of name, image and likeness deals athletes can sign. Most are innocuous, but three may violate their First Amendment rights.Sam C. Ehrlich, Assistant Professor of Legal Studies, Boise State UniversityNeal Ternes, Assistant Professor, Arkansas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1736432021-12-12T17:58:03Z2021-12-12T17:58:03ZWhy the southern US is prone to December tornadoes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437021/original/file-20211211-141178-bawm7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C17%2C2986%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damage in Mayfield, Kentucky, after a tornado swept through the area on Dec. 11, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/heavy-damage-is-seen-downtown-after-a-tornado-swept-through-news-photo/1237160787">Brett Carlsen/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On the night of Dec. 10-11, 2021, an outbreak of powerful tornadoes tore through parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Illinois, killing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/deadly-tornadoes-leave-path-of-destruction-across-six-states-its-unlike-anything-ive-ever-seen/2021/12/11/6a143b2c-5acc-11ec-b0c0-fe531874605a_story.html">dozens of people</a> and leaving wreckage over hundreds of miles. Hazard climatologists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BZn_vToAAAAJ&hl=en">Alisa Hass</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LvpAEa0AAAAJ&hl=en">Kelsey Ellis</a> explain the conditions that generated this event – including what may be the first “quad-state tornado” in the U.S. – and why the Southeast is vulnerable to these disasters year-round, especially at night.</em></p>
<h2>What factors came together to cause such a huge outbreak?</h2>
<p>On Dec. 10, a powerful storm system approached the central U.S. from the west. While the system brought heavy snow and slick conditions to the colder West and northern Midwest, the South was enjoying <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSLittleRock/status/1469653710867509249/photo/1">near-record breaking warmth</a>, courtesy of warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico. </p>
<p>The storm system ushered in cold, dense air to the region, which interacted with the warm air, creating <a href="https://www.actionnews5.com/2020/01/31/breakdown-why-instability-is-blame-thunderstorms/">unstable atmospheric conditions</a>. When warm and cold air masses collide, less dense warm air rises upward into cooler levels of the atmosphere. As this warm air cools, the moisture that it contains condenses into clouds and <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/storms/thunderstorms">can form storms</a>.</p>
<p>When this instability combines with significant <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ilx/swop-springtopics">wind shear</a> – winds shifting in direction and speed at different heights in the atmosphere – it can create an ideal setup for strong rotating storms to occur. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bFtWlWQk95Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Atmospheric instability develops when air is warm at the surface and cold at higher levels. This causes parcels of warm air to rise and form clouds that can produce thunderstorms and, in some conditions, tornadoes.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>On a tornado ranking scale, how intense was this event?</h2>
<p>At least <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/211210_rpts.html">38 tornadoes</a> have been reported in six states during this outbreak, causing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/11/us/tornadoes-midwest-south">widespread power outages, damage and fatalities</a>. The National Weather Service rates tornadoes based on the intensity of damage using 28 damage indicators from the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/efscale">Enhanced Fujita, or EF, scale</a>. Storm assessments and tornado ratings can take several days or longer to complete. </p>
<p>As of Dec. 12, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lmk/StormDamageSurveysPlannedfortheNextSeveralDays">at least</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSStLouis/status/1469735019895615488?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">four</a> EF-3 and five EF-2 tornadoes have been confirmed. EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes are considered strong, with wind speeds of 111-135 mph and 136-165 mph respectively. </p>
<p>Strong straight-line winds also occur with severe storms and can create as much damage as a tornado. After severe storms and reports of tornadoes, the National Weather Service conducts in-person storm damage surveys to determine whether a tornado or straight-line winds created the reported damage and the degree of damage. Investigators will look to see if debris is scattered in one direction, which would indicate straight-line winds, or in many different directions – the hallmark of a tornado.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing types of damage inflicted by winds and varying speeds on the EF scale." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437040/original/file-20211212-144477-7ip1da.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Expected damage from tornadoes at different levels of the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, using examples from a massive outbreak in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.weather.gov/hun/efscale_explanation">National Weather Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>One tornado reportedly traveled 240 miles across four states. Why is this unusual?</h2>
<p>Most tornadoes stay on the ground for a short amount of time and <a href="https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/faq/#:%7E:text=How%20long%20is%20a%20tornado,average%20is%20about%20five%20minutes">travel short distances</a> – <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/">3-4 miles on average</a>. Long-track and very long-track tornadoes – those that travel <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/longtrak.pdf">at least 25 and 100 miles respectively</a> – are relatively uncommon. They account for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.parco.2015.10.014">less than 1%</a> of all tornadoes in the United States. </p>
<p>Long-track tornadoes require <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00073.1">a very specific set of ingredients</a> that must exist across a wide area. These uncommon tornadoes form from a single <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/supercell">supercell storm</a> – a storm with a rotating updraft called a <a href="https://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=mesocyclone">mesocyclone</a> – that can persist for hours. </p>
<p>Significant tornadoes often stay on the ground longer than weaker tornadoes. Their tracks are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00057.1">especially long in the Southeast</a>, where significant tornadoes in the cool season move quickly, thus covering more ground. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.weather.gov/pah/1925Tornado_ss">previous record</a> for a long-track tornado was from 1925, when the F-5 Tri-State Tornado traveled 219 miles through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. The “Quad-State Tornado,” as this tornado has been nicknamed, is <a href="https://www.wnct.com/weather/quad-state-tornado-us-may-have-just-seen-1st-ever-event-of-its-kind/">expected to break that record</a>. In the coming days, the National Weather Service will confirm whether one tornado stayed on the ground for more than 200 miles or multiple tornadoes resulted from the same storm. The agency has issued a <a href="https://www.weather.gov/pah/December-10th-11th-2021-Tornado">preliminary rating of EF-3 or greater</a> for this event.</p>
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<h2>Why do more nighttime and winter tornadoes occur in the Southeast than in other regions?</h2>
<p>Spring is typically considered tornado season, but tornadoes can occur at any time throughout the year. The Southeast experiences a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.002">second peak</a> in tornadic activity in the fall and early winter, and winter tornadoes are not uncommon. </p>
<p>Similarly, tornadoes can happen at any time of the day. Nighttime tornado events are <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends">especially common</a> in the Southeast, where the <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Environmental-Characteristics-Associated-with-in-Mead-Thompson/d9faba87ac0fb33f308b656ba5584d1bda479116">ingredients for storms</a> are different and more conducive to nocturnal tornadoes than in “<a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/storms/tornadoes/where-tornadoes-happen">Tornado Alley” in the Great Plains</a>. </p>
<p>Tornadic storms in the Southeast are often powered by an abundance of wind shear. They do not rely as heavily on rising warm, humid air that creates atmospheric <a href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/bowls">instability</a> – conditions that require daytime heating of the earth’s surface and are more prevalent in the spring. </p>
<p>Forecasting for this event was <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1992.html">accurate</a> and predicted a major outbreak several days in advance. The National Weather Service’s <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/">Storm Prediction Center</a> in Norman, Oklahoma, and the affected National Weather Service local Weather Forecast Offices issued timely watches, warnings and information on how to stay safe. </p>
<p>But nighttime tornadoes can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222132.1">especially deadly</a>. More fatalities tend to occur because people often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0114.1">don’t receive warning communications</a> when they are sleeping. Storm spotting is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0245.1">more difficult in the dark</a>, and people are <a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-that-strike-at-night-are-more-deadly-and-require-more-effective-warning-systems-132955">more likely to be in more vulnerable housing</a>, such as mobile homes, at night than during the day when they are at work in sturdier buildings. </p>
<p>Having <a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-that-strike-at-night-are-more-deadly-and-require-more-effective-warning-systems-132955">multiple reliable methods for receiving warnings at night</a> is critical, since power can go out and cellphone service can go down during severe weather. Unfortunately, during the Dec. 10-11 event, some people who went to shelters were killed <a href="https://www.wlwt.com/article/kentucky-candle-factory-had-more-than-100-people-inside-when-tornado-hit/38492228#">when tornadoes struck the building</a> they were in. But timely warnings that allow people to shelter safely in a solid structure tied to a foundation or basement can mean survival during less-devastating events.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to provide the correct wind speed ranges for EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Too busy to read another daily email?</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-toobusy">Get one of The Conversation’s curated weekly newsletters</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelsey Ellis receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Natural Hazards Center.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alisa Hass does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tornadoes in December aren’t unusual in the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley states, but the Dec. 10-11 outbreak was extreme and far-reaching.Alisa Hass, Assistant Professor of Geography, Middle Tennessee State UniversityKelsey Ellis, Associate Professor of Geography, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1731562021-12-07T02:31:44Z2021-12-07T02:31:44ZWill Roe v Wade be overturned, and what would this mean? The US abortion debate explained<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435968/original/file-20211206-141979-1crmap3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=261%2C34%2C5561%2C3841&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Harnik/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case that is the most significant threat to abortion rights in the US in decades. </p>
<p>The case, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization/">Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization</a>, centres on a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/us/mississippi-abortion-ban.html">2018 Mississippi law</a> banning abortion after 15 weeks except in “medical emergencies or for severe fetal abnormality”. </p>
<p>It is part of a wave of state abortion bans passed since the 2016 US presidential election that take aim at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade">Roe v Wade</a>, the landmark 1973 Supreme Court decision that guaranteed abortion as a constitutional right. </p>
<p>So, what is this Mississippi challenge based on and could it eventually lead to the overturning of Roe v Wade?</p>
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<h2>Two issues at stake in the Mississippi case</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court, which likely won’t make a decision in the case until mid-2022, is faced with two key issues.</p>
<p>One of the central elements of Roe is that the state and federal governments cannot ban abortion before viability, the point at which a fetus can theoretically survive outside the pregnant person’s body (defined as approximately 23-24 weeks gestation). </p>
<p>The Mississippi ban falls well short of the viability threshold. As such, the Supreme Court is now considering whether <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/qp/19-01392qp.pdf">all pre-viability bans on elective abortions are unconstitutional</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-signals-shift-on-abortion-but-will-it-strike-down-roe-or-leave-it-to-states-to-decide-when-personhood-occurs-172934">Supreme Court signals shift on abortion – but will it strike down Roe or leave it to states to decide when 'personhood' occurs?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The second issue is respect for legal precedent. Since the Supreme Court was established in 1789, it has <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-supreme-court-has-overturned-precedent-dozens-of-times-in-the-past-60-years-including-when-it-struck-down-legal-segregation-168052">reversed its own constitutional precedents</a> only 145 times, or in 0.5% of cases. </p>
<p>Roe v Wade, decided 48 years ago, is sometimes described as a “<a href="https://scholarship.law.unc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1086&context=faculty_publications">super precedent</a>” decision, because the Supreme Court has repeatedly reaffirmed it. </p>
<p>Constitutional scholar <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/hunting-for-super-precedents-in-u.s-supreme-court-confirmations">Michael Gerhardt</a> defines “super precedents” as </p>
<blockquote>
<p>constitutional decisions in which public institutions have heavily invested, repeatedly relied, and consistently supported over a significant period of time. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Conservatives, including several on the Supreme Court, reject the inclusion of Roe v Wade in this definition. </p>
<h2>Why does the court’s makeup now matter?</h2>
<p>In oral arguments, Mississippi’s lawyers invited the Supreme Court to use this case to overturn Roe v Wade. Anti-abortion lawyers and activists are optimistic their arguments will fall on receptive ears. </p>
<p>In 2016, Donald Trump, like every Republican presidential candidate dating back to Ronald Reagan, campaigned on a promise to appoint “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/trump-i-will-be-appointing-pro-life-judges-789632067780">pro-life judges</a>” to the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>Despite serving only one term in office, Trump was able to deliver. He appointed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/31/us/politics/supreme-court-nominee-trump.html">Neil Gorsuch</a> in 2017, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/06/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court.html">Brett Kavanaugh</a> in 2018, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-amy-coney-barrett-trumps-pick-for-the-supreme-court-mean-for-abortion-rights-in-the-us-146931">Amy Coney Barrett</a> in 2020 to fill Supreme Court vacancies. Conservatives on the bench now have a 6-3 majority. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Donald Trump and Amy Coney Barrett" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436008/original/file-20211207-140895-1yvj449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436008/original/file-20211207-140895-1yvj449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436008/original/file-20211207-140895-1yvj449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436008/original/file-20211207-140895-1yvj449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436008/original/file-20211207-140895-1yvj449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436008/original/file-20211207-140895-1yvj449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436008/original/file-20211207-140895-1yvj449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump and Amy Coney Barrett after the Senate confirmed her nomination last October.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Semansky/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While conservative Chief Justice John Roberts is no supporter of abortion rights, he has been a swing vote on a range of issues and has an established interest in protecting the reputation of the Supreme Court. However, after Barrett was sworn in, conservatives no longer needed to appeal to him to form a majority. </p>
<p>And while <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/01/kavanaugh-who-told-senate-roe-v-wade-was-settled-precedent-signals-openness-overturning-abortion-decision/">Kavanaugh</a> claimed in his confirmation hearings to believe Roe v Wade was “settled as a precedent of the Supreme Court”, last week in oral arguments he read from a list of Supreme Court cases that overturned precedent. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-us-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaugh-and-where-does-he-stand-on-abortion-99670">Who is US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, and where does he stand on abortion?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How states have chipped away at abortion access</h2>
<p>Abortion rights have survived serious attacks before. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey">Planned Parenthood v Casey (1992)</a>, three appointees of Republican presidents sided with two liberal justices to uphold Roe v Wade, arguing “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/505/833/#tab-opinion-1959105">liberty finds no refuge in a jurisprudence of doubt</a>.” </p>
<p>That judgement reiterated the viability threshold for legal abortions, but allowed states to pass restrictions as long as they did not place an “undue burden” on the right to an abortion.</p>
<p>Since the 1990s, anti-abortion lawmakers have pushed to find the limits of an “undue burden,” pursuing laws and test cases that erode abortion access.</p>
<p>Many states now <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/overview-abortion-laws">mandate</a> 24- or 72-hour waiting periods, ultrasounds, parental consent requirements for teenagers and counselling that repeats anti-abortion claims. </p>
<p>Since 2010, conservative states have also passed hundreds of <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/targeted-regulation-abortion-providers">targeted regulation of abortion provision (TRAP) laws</a>, which <a href="https://reproductiverights.org/targeted-regulation-of-abortion-providers-trap/">place prohibitive and medically unnecessary restrictions</a> on doctors and clinics that provide abortion care. </p>
<p>This anti-abortion strategy of chipping away at Roe v Wade has been extraordinarily successful. </p>
<p>Between 2011–16, over 160 abortion providers closed or stopped offering terminations, the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-24/abortion-clinics-are-closing-at-a-record-pace">largest rate of closures</a> since 1973. Multiple states, including Mississippi, have <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/29/health/six-states-with-1-abortion-clinic-map-trnd/index.html">one remaining abortion clinic</a> in operation. </p>
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<h2>New strategy: more aggressive challenges to Roe v Wade</h2>
<p>After Trump’s victory, opponents of abortion shifted to a more aggressive strategy of directly challenging Roe v Wade. </p>
<p>Most of these recent laws, such as Alabama’s 2019 <a href="https://time.com/5591166/state-abortion-laws-explained/">near-total abortion ban</a>, have been blocked by the lower courts. </p>
<p>A new Texas law <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/05/18/texas-heartbeat-bill-abortions-law/">banning abortion after six weeks</a> is currently in effect while the Supreme Court considers whether its <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/01/texas-abortion-law-supreme-court/">unique enforcement mechanism</a>, which allows private citizens to sue anyone they think has broken the law, can be challenged in the courts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jim-crow-tactics-reborn-in-texas-abortion-law-deputizing-citizens-to-enforce-legally-suspect-provisions-167621">Jim Crow tactics reborn in Texas abortion law, deputizing citizens to enforce legally suspect provisions</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>And the partisan makeup of the current Supreme Court makes it almost certain that Mississippi’s law will stand. </p>
<p>What is not clear is whether the justices will restrict themselves to the question of fetal viability or whether they will completely overturn Roe v Wade, allowing states to ban abortion at will. </p>
<p>If the Supreme Court allows the states to ban abortion before viability, this will have a significant impact on the small number of pregnant people who seek abortions in the second trimester. </p>
<p>Generally, these people have either received a <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2019/10/13/late-abortion-women-2020/">devastating</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/19/opinion/sunday/late-term-abortion.html">medical</a> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/10/26/abortion-late-term-donald-trump-column/92691850/">diagnosis</a> or they have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1363/4521013">complex personal circumstances</a>, including domestic violence, mental illness, and/or drug addiction. These patients, as well as the doctors that provide this care, are highly stigmatised. </p>
<h2>The long-term effects of overturning Roe v Wade</h2>
<p>If Roe v Wade is overturned and abortion rights are returned to the states, access to abortion will effectively be a <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe">geographical lottery</a>. </p>
<p>Twenty-two states have laws that could be used to ban or severely restrict abortion, while 15 states and the District of Columbia have laws that protect the right to abortion. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1467944477033738246"}"></div></p>
<p>Abortion is a routine, common type of reproductive health care. Approximately <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2017/abortion-common-experience-us-women-despite-dramatic-declines-rates">one in four American women</a> will have an abortion before they are 45. </p>
<p>Despite the political controversy and polarising rhetoric, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/11/30/how-americans-really-feel-about-abortion-the-sometimes-surprising-poll-results-as-supreme-court-weighs-overturning-roe-v-wade/?sh=70180d6736c9">polling this year</a> indicated that 80% of Americans support abortion in all or most cases, and at least 60% support Roe v Wade. </p>
<p>However, while abortion is common, three-quarters of US abortion patients are <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/report/characteristics-us-abortion-patients-2014">low income</a> and more than half are <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/report/characteristics-us-abortion-patients-2014">people of colour</a>. They already face significant financial and logistical barriers in accessing this essential health care.</p>
<p>If Roe v Wade is overturned, abortion will still be safely and legally accessible for those who can afford it. The devastating consequences of such a decision will fall primarily on the shoulders of those least able to bear it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prudence Flowers has received funding from the South Australian Department of Human Services. She is a member of the South Australian Abortion Action Coalition.</span></em></p>If Roe v. Wade is overturned and abortion rights are returned to the states, access to abortion will be a geographical lottery – and the poor and marginalised will suffer.Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1729342021-12-01T20:02:50Z2021-12-01T20:02:50ZSupreme Court signals shift on abortion – but will it strike down Roe or leave it to states to decide when ‘personhood’ occurs?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435118/original/file-20211201-24-16vj4qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=99%2C0%2C5785%2C3712&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will Justices give a green light to states to decide on abortion?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/abortion-rights-advocates-and-anti-abortion-protesters-news-photo/1236932990?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Supreme Court justices signaled a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/12/01/1060508566/roe-v-wade-arguments-abortion-supreme-court-case-mississippi-law">potential major shift on abortion law </a>on Dec. 1, 2021. Hearing arguments <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392">in a case</a> that could fundamentally alter abortion rights and regulations throughout the nation, the six conservative justices who hold the majority in the highest court seemed divided: Would they overturn the core right to abortion entirely or would they allow abortion to be limited by the states to the early stages of pregnancy?</p>
<p>In either approach, the court seemed to be moving toward the position that some decisions may be left to individual states rather than established by the Supreme Court. And although Supreme Court decisions cannot always be predicted by oral arguments alone, either outcome would represent a historic move away from the landmark precedent of Roe v. Wade, which has set out Americans’ <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1971/70-18">constitutional right to abortion</a> for almost 50 years.</p>
<p>Since that 1973 decision, a powerful <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/06/13/anti-abortion-progressive-roe-v-wade-supreme-court-492506">legal movement</a> has sought to <a href="https://fedsoc.org/commentary/publications/the-gordian-knot-of-abortion-jurisprudence">overturn Roe v. Wade</a>, while abortion rights advocates have fought to protect it. </p>
<p>The arguments at the court on Dec. 1 suggest that there is a third path the justices could – and might – take. The court could focus its ruling on a narrower and more neglected aspect of the ruling in Roe: the court’s understanding of the facts of fetal personhood.</p>
<h2>Roe not a monolith</h2>
<p>There were two separate rulings in Roe:</p>
<p>1) The Constitution protects a right to privacy, which encompasses the abortion decision.</p>
<p>2) A fetus is not a person in the early stages of pregnancy. Personhood emerges around the time of viability at approximately six months, which justifies a compelling state interest at that point.</p>
<p>This is why <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/a-guide-to-abortion-laws-by-state">individual states are forbidden under current rulings from outlawing abortions in the first or second trimester of pregnancy</a>, but can make the procedure illegal during the third trimester after the viability of the fetus.</p>
<p>The ongoing debate at the Supreme Court is less about the existence of the abortion right and more about the second ruling in Roe v. Wade in 1973 – that the right is limited by the emerging <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-human-life-begins-is-a-question-of-politics-not-biology-165514">personhood of a fetus</a>.</p>
<p>The state of Mississippi has redefined the emergence of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/mississippi-abortion-law.html">personhood to be at 15 weeks</a>, not 24, and outlawed abortions before that point.</p>
<p>Everything hinges on the judgment of personhood.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young man in front of the U.S. Supreme Court holds up a model of a fetus a bit bigger than his hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432933/original/file-20211119-24-13ffkyw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-abortion activist holds up a model of a fetus during a protest in front of the U.S. Supreme Court on June 22, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-life-activist-holds-up-a-model-of-a-fetus-during-a-news-photo/1251340428?adppopup=true">Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Determining the facts</h2>
<p>When the Supreme Court considers how constitutional rights apply to the facts of our society, they are often forced to rule on what those broad <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/687394">prevailing facts</a> are. The justices could cite experts, employ their own perceptions or exercise a third option: allow diverse democratic decisions through state legislatures, an approach that could be called the <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2016/09/academic-highlight-marietta-and-farley-on-the-courts-reliance-on-social-facts-to-decide-constitutional-cases/">federalism of facts</a>.</p>
<p>In Roe, the core factual question was whether a fetus is a person – a human who holds rights and hence cannot be killed lawfully by another person.</p>
<p>The court, ruling in 1973, recognized the problem: “When those trained in the respective disciplines of medicine, philosophy, and theology are unable to arrive at any consensus, <a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep410/usrep410113/usrep410113.pdf#page47">the judiciary, at this point in the development of man’s knowledge, is not in a position to speculate as to the answer</a>.”</p>
<p>But the justices were nonetheless compelled to do so. The court ruled that “<a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep410/usrep410113/usrep410113.pdf#page=50">the unborn have never been recognized in the law as persons in the whole sense</a>.” Therefore, “the word ‘person,’ as used in the 14th Amendment, <a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep410/usrep410113/usrep410113.pdf#page=46">does not include the unborn</a>.”</p>
<p>However, the court saw the personhood of a fetus as developing during the course of a pregnancy. Therefore, “it is reasonable and appropriate for a State to decide that at some point in time another interest, that of health of the mother or <a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep410/usrep410113/usrep410113.pdf#page=47">that of potential human life</a>, becomes significantly involved.”</p>
<p>The court concluded that “with respect to the State’s important and legitimate interest in potential life, <a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep410/usrep410113/usrep410113.pdf#page=51">the ‘compelling’ point is at viability</a>.”</p>
<p>This means that in the early stages of pregnancy, abortion cannot be outlawed, but “<a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep410/usrep410113/usrep410113.pdf#page=51">if the State is interested in protecting fetal life after viability</a>, it may go so far as to proscribe abortion during that period, except when it is necessary to preserve the life or health of the mother.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two women wearing elegant clothes and standing close together outside the Supreme Court." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=912&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=912&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=912&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1146&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1146&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432934/original/file-20211119-22436-1pzunc7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1146&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Norma McCorvey, left, who was Jane Roe in the 1973 Roe vs. Wade Supreme Court case, with her attorney, Gloria Allred, outside the Supreme Court in April 1989, where they observed arguments in a case that could have overturned Roe v. Wade – but didn’t.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/STILLWAITINGDECISION/8012bf7061e5da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo?Query=Norma%20McCorvey&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=19&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why viability?</h2>
<p>There is a <a href="https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1105&context=facpub">long-standing myth</a> that the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/05/us/justice-blackmun-author-of-abortion-right-dies.html">author of Roe – Justice Harry Blackmun</a>, who had served for many years as chief counsel for the Mayo Clinic – had done copious medical research and come to the conclusion of viability as the emergence of personhood. </p>
<p>Linda Greenhouse, a longtime Supreme Court reporter for The New York Times, wrote the definitive <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780805080575/becomingjusticeblackmun">biography of Blackmun</a>, which clearly demonstrates that this was not the case. Blackmun preferred the point of quickening – when the fetus first begins to move, at around the end of the first trimester – as the emergence of personhood.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.justfacts.com/abortion.blackmun.asp">In a memo to the justices in November 1972</a>, he wrote that the end of the first trimester “is arbitrary, but perhaps any other selected point, such as quickening or viability, is equally arbitrary.” </p>
<p><a href="http://www.davidgarrow.com/File/DJG%202000%20AmLawRoevWadeLFP.pdf">He later wrote</a>, “I could go along with viability if it could command a court,” but would “like to leave the states free to draw their own medical conclusions with respect to the period after three months and until viability.” In Greenhouse’s telling, it was Justices William Brennan and Thurgood Marshall who urged viability as the court’s standard, to which Blackmun eventually agreed.</p>
<p>During the arguments to the Supreme Court on Dec. 1, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito both referenced Blackmun’s view that viability was an arbitrary line, suggesting that it could be reconsidered by the court.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<h2>The court’s options</h2>
<p>As a <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-53851-4">close observer of the court</a>, I believe the justices have three options rather than two:</p>
<p>• Maintain Roe fully, solidifying abortion rights.</p>
<p>• Overturn Roe entirely, ending all abortion rights.</p>
<p>• Focus only on the specific factual question of the Mississippi law – when does personhood emerge? – allowing individual states to determine that line for themselves.</p>
<p>Based on the justices’ questions and commentary during the oral arguments, Chief Justice Roberts appears to favor the third approach. Roberts’ first question to the solicitor general of Mississippi was about the arbitrariness of viability, citing the revelations of Blackmun’s original views. Roberts returned several times to viability as the core issue, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/01/supreme-court-mississippi-abortion-live-updates/">asking the lawyer for the Mississippi abortion provider</a>, “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2021/19-1392_gfbi.pdf#page=54">Why is 15 weeks not enough time</a>?” to obtain an abortion, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2021/19-1392_gfbi.pdf#page=102">emphasizing that</a> “the thing that is at issue before us today is 15 weeks.”</p>
<p>The question as the court deliberates is whether the more conservative justices – especially the newest member of the court, Amy Coney Barrett – will join Roberts’ limited focus, or instead rule on the constitutionality of the right to abortion.</p>
<p>Fellow conservative Brett Kavanaugh, the second newest justice, asked each speaker to respond to his position that when it comes to abortion – either the right to one or the degree to which that right is regulated – the Constitution “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2021/19-1392_gfbi.pdf#page=44">leaves the issue for the people of the states</a> … to resolve in the democratic process.”</p>
<p>In Kavanaugh’s view, seemingly shared by several other members of the court, this suggests that the decisions “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2021/19-1392_gfbi.pdf#page=78">should be left to the people</a>,” which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/01/us/abortion-mississippi-supreme-court">means that there could be</a> “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2021/19-1392_gfbi.pdf#page=108">different answers in Mississippi and New York.”<br>
</a>
If Justice Barrett joins Kavanaugh’s view, it will likely prevail and the full range of decisions about abortions will be returned to the states. If she joins with Chief Justice Roberts and focuses on viability alone, it could shift the narrower question of who decides when personhood occurs – and therefore what regulations can be put in place – to the states, rather than the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the three liberal justices – Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor – focused their questions squarely on maintaining precedent and the potential harm to the court’s reputation in appearing to be partisan. </p>
<p>But Roberts <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2021/19-1392_gfbi.pdf#page=68">countered that the court</a> “cannot base our decisions on whether they’re popular or not with the people.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172934/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan Marietta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Arguments in a case that could fundamentally alter a woman’s right to abortion were heard at the Supreme Court. Justices’ questions suggest that Roe v. Wade is on shaky ground.Morgan Marietta, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1660052021-08-27T12:30:13Z2021-08-27T12:30:13ZHow public health partnerships are encouraging COVID-19 vaccination in Mississippi, Michigan, Indiana and South Carolina<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418171/original/file-20210827-23-149hvu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6034%2C3418&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Delta Health Center worker at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination clinic in rural Mississippi in April 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/medical-workers-with-delta-health-center-prepare-to-news-photo/1315261886">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>About 18 months into the coronavirus pandemic, roughly <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total">61% of all Americans</a> have gotten at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. In some states, however, the share of vaccinated people is as low as 43.6%. There are many counties where <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/09/1014512213/covid-is-surging-in-new-hotspots-driven-by-low-vaccination-rates">numbers are even lower than that</a>, leaving them especially vulnerable to surges in coronavirus infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Here, four public health and communications experts from Michigan, Indiana, Mississippi and South Carolina explain how they are teaming up with nonprofits and other partners to encourage more people in their states and local communities to get these <a href="https://www.wpr.org/health-officials-public-countering-covid-19-misinformation-saves-lives">potentially lifesaving shots</a>.</em></p>
<p><iframe id="JOHfX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JOHfX/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>1. Closing the racial gap in Michigan’s COVID-19 vaccination</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=v-vE-asAAAAJ">Debra Furr-Holden</a>, professor of public health, Michigan State University</strong></p>
<p>Initially, Michigan was one of many states with tremendous <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7028a2.htm#">racial disparities in COVID-19 cases and deaths</a>. As a result, the state tried to make it easier for Blacks and other people of color to get tested, acquire personal protective equipment and, once vaccines became available, get vaccines.</p>
<p>But as an epidemiologist who participated in the partnerships formed between the government, academics, health care professionals, nonprofits and philanthropic funders, I’m concerned because African Americans are still disproportionately getting COVID-19 and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-california-coronavirus-pandemic-race-and-ethnicity-health-341950a902affc651dc268dba6d83264">dying from it</a>. And despite our concerted efforts, I’m troubled by the big gap between <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/">vaccination rates for Black people and white people in Michigan</a>, even if these differences <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/20/politics/texas-dan-patrick-coronavirus-black-people-vaccines-fact-check/index.html">by race and ethnicity are dissipating across the country</a> overall.</p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/">13% of Michigan residents are Black</a>, and yet 10% of the people in the state who had gotten at least one dose of a vaccine by Aug. 16, 2021 were Black, according to the Kaiser Foundation. </p>
<p>This imbalance is one reason why I helped launch the <a href="https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2021/cdc-grant-boosts-confidence-in-vaccines">National Network to Innovate for COVID-19 and Adult Vaccine Equity</a>, funded with a $6 million grant from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. One overarching goal of this project is to close the racial disparities gap in COVID-19 and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.amepre.2015.03.005">other adult vaccinations</a>, such as the flu and shingles. </p>
<p>The project is a partnership between Michigan State University, Michigan Public Health Institute, the Community Foundation of Greater Flint and Community Campus Partnerships for Health. It also partners with organizations committed to reducing African American health disparities, including the NAACP, the Rainbow PUSH Coalition and the National Medical Association.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2353&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman wearing a mask gets a COVID-19 vaccine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2353&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Takalya Faulkner receives a dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on Aug. 24, 2021 in Southfield, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/takalya-faulkner-receives-her-booster-dose-of-the-pfizer-news-photo/1234850756">Emily Elconin/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Outreach to Latinos and members of the Haitian community in Indiana</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Omolola-A-Adeoye-Olatunde-2167740203">Omolola Adeoye-Olatunde</a>, assistant professor of pharmacy practice, Purdue University</strong> </p>
<p>Marion County, which includes Indianapolis, is <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/marioncountyindiana">racially and ethnically diverse</a>, with nearly half the population identifying as people of color. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, it had Indiana’s <a href="https://feedingindianashungry.org/hunger-study-finds-food-insecurity-levels-remain-historically-high/">highest level of food insecurity</a>. As of mid-August, <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/">Black and Latino residents were underrepresented</a> among people in Indiana who had gotten at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. Roughly <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view">half of all people in Marion County</a> had gotten at least one dose by late August 2021.</p>
<p>The Purdue University Center for Health Equity and Innovation, or <a href="https://cheqi.pharmacy.purdue.edu">CHEqI</a>, where <a href="https://www.phpr.purdue.edu/directory/adeoyeo">I work</a>, partnered with the <a href="https://www.gleaners.org/learn/hunger-in-your-community/marion-county/">Gleaners Food Bank of Indiana</a> and Walgreens to <a href="https://indianactsi.org/news_/indiana-ctsi-tl1-postdoc-leads-partnership-to-give-covid-vaccines-to-hoosiers-experiencing-food-insecurity/">design and pilot</a> an initiative that gave COVID-19 vaccines to people arriving for drive-thru food distribution.</p>
<p>Across the pilot’s first six vaccination events occurring between June and August 2021, 2,787 families got food and 2,465 of the food bank’s clients were asked about their vaccination status and interest by student pharmacists. About 60% said they’d already been vaccinated; 229 of them got vaccines by Walgreens pharmacy staff, with 14% being second-dose vaccinations.</p>
<p>Nearly 60% of the people who got the pilot’s vaccines and reported their ethnicity self-identified as Hispanic or Latino.</p>
<p>Numbers of vaccinations have declined since the first events in June, but student volunteers and Walgreens staff have observed that several clients who received vaccines were previously reluctant to get them. For example, one food bank client indicated they had recently canceled a scheduled vaccine appointment due to hesitancy. Upon talking to student pharmacists and Walgreens pharmacy staff for 10 minutes, and having all of their concerns addressed, they decided to get the vaccine at a Gleaners vaccine event.</p>
<p>We will expand this model to another central Indiana location in late August 2021. There, we should be able to serve not just more Latinos, but many members of the <a href="http://www.haindy.org/hai/who-we-are/">Haitian immigrant community</a> and other food-insecure people. Later, we plan to try integrating access to donated food with other public health initiatives.</p>
<p>I believe that this collaborative model, built on longstanding trust between Gleaners and its clients, serves as a promising avenue to simultaneously address food insecurity, decrease vaccine hesitancy, increase access to COVID-19 vaccines and promote health equity in central Indiana.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People protest mandates related to COVID-19." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people in Indiana, like these at a Bloomington protest in June 2021, are leery of getting vaccinated against COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protesters-holding-placards-gather-at-indiana-universitys-news-photo/1233384515">Jeremy Hogan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Navigating the Mississippi RIVER</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lEIbjzkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">David Buys</a>, associate professor of health, Mississippi State University</strong></p>
<p>By Aug. 24, 2021, <a href="https://healthdata.gov/Community/COVID-19-State-Profile-Report-Mississippi/epqx-kmvs">44.8% of Mississippi residents</a> had gotten at least one shot of the COVID-19 vaccine. With <a href="https://abc7news.com/vaccine-finder-covid-signup-am-i-eligible-for-county-health-department/9478998/">one of the country’s lowest vaccination rates</a>, my state’s latest outbreak is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-mississippi-6fa32e24bacaf6d8f59ee74beabbffdb">filling up hospitals</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.msstate.edu/newsroom/article/2021/08/msu-partners-delta-health-alliance-mississippi-river-project-vaccination">Mississippi State University</a> is trying to increase the vaccination rate by partnering with the <a href="https://deltahealthalliance.org/">Delta Health Alliance</a>, a public health nonprofit that serves communities in Mississippi and western Tennessee. Together, we are spreading awareness about the <a href="https://panolian.com/2021/08/09/getting-vaccinated-prevents-more-covid-19-mutations/">importance and safety of getting vaccinated</a> on campus and in all 82 of the state’s counties, especially 32 counties in eastern Mississippi. </p>
<p>The new Mississippi RIVER project – RIVER stands for <a href="https://www.getyourshotms.org/about">Recognizing Important Vaccine and Education Resources</a> – includes more than 20 students and others who are paid <a href="https://www.msstate.edu/newsroom/article/2021/08/msu-partners-delta-health-alliance-mississippi-river-project-vaccination">vaccination ambassadors</a>. During the 2021-2022 school year, they are educating their classmates, answering frequently asked questions and encouraging their peers to visit pop-up clinics.</p>
<p>This partnership is funded by the <a href="https://www.hrsa.gov/coronavirus/community-based-workforce">Health Resources and Services Administration</a>, a federal agency. In turn, it is funding <a href="https://uscprssa.com/2021/08/06/fall-pandemic-preparedness-and-vaccine-incentives-at-jsu-and-msu-usm-blessings-in-a-backpack-program-jackson-free-press/">incentives for Mississippi State students</a> to get their shots, such as $250 in bookstore coupons or a chance to win a $9,000 tuition discount through a raffle.</p>
<p>Additionally, through this partnership, my university’s extension service, where I do most of my work for the state, is leveraging our reach across Mississippi, including through one-on-one conversations with community members at local workplaces, festivals and other events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in mask eyes man in suit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mississippi State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs responds to a question during a news briefing regarding his state’s COVID-19 response in Jackson, in August 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakMississippi/80b047e8140a4e6aa6df6d9f866b8eb1/photo?Query=mississippi%20AND%20dobbs&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=118&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Identifying barriers through focus groups in South Carolina</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=z_rGiRsAAAAJ&hl=en">Brooke W. McKeever</a>, associate professor of communication, University of South Carolina</strong> </p>
<p>Toward the end of August 2021, South Carolina <a href="https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-population-vaccinated-march-15.html">ranked 41st in the U.S.</a> in terms of the percentage of the population that had been fully vaccinated. According to <a href="https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-vaccination-dashboard">state health authorities</a>, <a href="https://healthdata.gov/Community/COVID-19-State-Profile-Report-South-Carolina/jw8e-8y5f">60.5% of all adults</a> had gotten at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by Aug. 20 but there are counties with much lower vaccination rates.</p>
<p>Researchers at the <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/index.htm">Prevention Research Center at the University of South Carolina</a> are working with the <a href="https://scchwa.org/">South Carolina Community Health Worker Association</a>, <a href="http://palss.org/">Palmetto AIDS Life Support Services</a> and others to increase COVID-19 vaccination throughout the state.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vice President Kamala Harris, wearing a mask, meets with several people at a pop-up vaccination clinic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and Walgreens executives visit a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination site at the YMCA of Greenville, S.C. in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-kamala-harris-ceo-of-walgreens-roz-brewer-news-photo/1323545132">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Together, we are working to learn what barriers still exist, what misinformation may be spreading in various communities, how we can increase trust and convince those who have not been vaccinated to get their shots <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-ec73ec0e4150f6dd1a2c4f8a07c5ab8b">amid an alarming outbreak</a>.</p>
<p>Based on what we learn through focus groups, we will work with community health workers to address misinformation and communicate with those who still have concerns that are keeping them from getting vaccinated. If there are other barriers, such as access to vaccines, we will address those, too. </p>
<p>We are building on a wide array of partnerships – with <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/projects/fantraining.htm">churches</a>, nonprofits, a <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/partners.htm">community advisory board</a> and <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/faculty-investigators.htm">academic researchers</a> –
to gain access to trusted individuals who can serve as important sources of health information in communities that might be difficult to reach otherwise.</p>
<p>Our Prevention Research Center is one of many throughout the U.S. that have been funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as part of its <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/vaccinate-with-confidence.html">COVID-19 Vaccinate with Confidence Strategy</a> program. We hope our work with the CDC, state agencies and local nonprofits will get more South Carolina residents vaccinated, which will help protect us all moving forward. </p>
<p>[<em>Research into coronavirus and other news from science</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-research">Subscribe to The Conversation’s new science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Debra Furr-Holden receives funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brooke W. McKeever receives funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David R. Buys receives funding from the Health Services and Research Administration via the Delta Health Alliance, Extension Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Agency, and the United States Department of Agriculture.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Omolola Adeoye-Olatunde receives funding from the Indiana Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute, Indiana Department of Health, and the Marion County Public Health Department. </span></em></p>Achieving widespread immunity to COVID-19 through vaccination requires as many people as possible to get their shots, including those who object or haven’t bothered.Debra Furr-Holden, Associate Dean for Public Health Integration, Michigan State UniversityBrooke W. McKeever, Associate Professor of Communication, University of South CarolinaDavid R. Buys, Associate Professor of Health, Mississippi State UniversityOmolola Adeoye-Olatunde, Assistant Professor of Pharmacy Practice, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1583672021-05-13T12:35:35Z2021-05-13T12:35:35ZScientists at work: Helping endangered sea turtles, one emergency surgery at a time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400089/original/file-20210511-19-1b92k70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C78%2C3012%2C2221&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kemp's ridley sea turtles are an endangered species that live and nest in the Gulf of Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2010_Kemp%27s_ridley_sea_turtle_project_at_Padre_Island_National_Seashore_(for_NRC)_(f1b41723-09a4-4933-8312-14fedb1c1b81).jpg">National Park Service/WikimediaCommons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Help! I’m fishing and just caught a huge sea turtle. She’s completely swallowed my hook.” We are two veterinarians, <a href="https://www.vetmed.msstate.edu/directory/dpm232">Debra Moore</a>, who specializes in sea turtles, and <a href="https://www.vetmed.msstate.edu/directory/jmt294">John Thomason</a>, who specializes in internal medicine. This is a call we get a lot in our work with the <a href="https://imms.org/sea-turtle-rehabilitation/">Sea Turtle Stranding and Salvage Network</a>.</p>
<p>Thirty minutes after we received this call, the Sea Turtle Stranding team arrived at the Moses Pier in Gulfport, Mississippi, to find a frantic fisherman standing next to a 65-pound female <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/kemps-ridley-turtle">Kemp’s ridley sea turtle</a>. She was lying on the pier with fishing line coming out of her mouth. After examining the turtle for injuries, the team drove her to the veterinary hospital to see if we could save this turtle’s life.</p>
<p>But why was this one sea turtle so important? </p>
<p>The Kemp’s ridley sea turtle has been <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/kemps-ridley-sea-turtle-lepidochelys-kempii-5-year-review-summary-and-evaluation">on the brink of extinction</a> for the past 40 years. Saving this one turtle, which our team named Toni, could greatly support the survival of this species.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tiny newborn sea turtle on the sand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400095/original/file-20210511-23-1167xfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Only 1% of Kemp’s ridley hatchlings make it to adulthood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lak_posht_tavallod.JPG#/media/File:Lak_posht_tavallod.JPG">Nightryder84/WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A critically endangered species</h2>
<p>Kemp’s ridleys can weigh as much as 100 pounds as adults – though they are still the smallest species of sea turtle – and can live for decades. It takes about 15 years for turtles to mature to the point that <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/kemps-ridley-turtle">they can lay eggs</a>, and a mature female can lay <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/kemps-ridley-turtle">two to three clutches of about 100 eggs</a> each nesting season. But less than 1% of hatchlings survive to adulthood, so every adult turtle is important to the overall population – especially a breeding female.</p>
<p>Kemp’s ridley turtles live primarily in coastal environments in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the past century, these gentle creatures have faced increases in pollution, oil spills and accidental catch risk from commercial fishing, as well as coastal development and crowded beaches in their nesting areas. And as Toni’s situation exemplifies, recreational fishing also poses a major threat.</p>
<p>It’s hard to count how many individual Kemp’s ridley sea turtles live in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, so biologists count nests to track the health of the population. In the early 1940s, biologists estimated there were 40,000 nests in the Gulf of Mexico. By the mid-1980s, that number had fallen to fewer than 750. Through intensive conservation efforts, nests increased to 19,000 by 2009, but the number has dropped back down to <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/kemps-ridley-sea-turtle-lepidochelys-kempii-5-year-review-summary-and-evaluation">11,000 nests in 2014</a>, the last year biologists published a nesting survey. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A female sea turtle digging a nest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400098/original/file-20210511-17-kdep2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Female Kemp’s ridley sea turtles can lay hundreds of eggs a year, so saving mature females is critical for the species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kemp%27s_Ridley_sea_turtle_nesting.JPG#/media/File:Kemp's_Ridley_sea_turtle_nesting.JPG">National Park Service Staff/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Endangered turtles need help</h2>
<p>In an effort to save these turtles, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration established the <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/sea-turtle-stranding-and-salvage-network">Sea Turtle Stranding and Salvage Network in 1980</a>. We are part of this team of veterinarians, biologists and researchers who work with the public to locate stranded turtles, give them the medical care they need and rehabilitate them for release back into the wild. The public plays a crucial role. If someone who sees an injured animal contacts our rescue team, there is a good chance we can save these turtles.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Luckily, the fisherman in Gulfport, Mississippi, knew exactly what to do. As soon as he accidentally caught the large Kemp’s ridley, he contacted the <a href="https://imms.org/sea-turtle-rehabilitation/">Institute for Marine Mammal Studies</a> (IMMS) stranding hotline. IMMS collaborates with the <a href="https://www.vetmed.msstate.edu/">Mississippi State University College of Veterinary Medicine</a>, where we work to provide top-notch medical care and rehabilitation to many marine mammals, including Kemp’s ridleys. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An X-ray showing the turtle with a hook visible near where the shell meets the neck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400096/original/file-20210511-18-b7ox4h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fishhook, seen near the top of this X-ray, was lodged in the turtle’s stomach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Debra Moore/Institute of Marine Mammal Science</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turtle care and rehabilitation</h2>
<p>That summer afternoon, the sea turtle stranding team transported Toni to the veterinary hospital nearby at IMMS. Once at the hospital, Debra and the veterinary team took an X–ray and found that the hook was lodged deep in the turtle’s stomach. Getting it out would not be easy. Debra then called John to come to Gulfport to try to remove the hook with an endoscope.</p>
<p>We passed an endoscope – a long, thin tube with a camera and a light on the end – into the turtle’s esophagus and stomach. The esophagus connects the mouth to the stomach, and in most animals it is a smooth tube. But not in sea turtles. Sea turtles have hundreds of fingerlike projections called papillae that stick out in the esophagus to trap shrimp, crabs and other food in the stomach. Using the endoscope, we could see that the point of the hook was deeply embedded in the stomach, but the other half, which contained the eye of the fishing hook, was hidden behind some papillae. We needed to be careful to avoid tearing the stomach. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GzhBoNE--L0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This video shows the esophagus of a different turtle that the team rescued after it swallowed a fishing hook.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once we got a good view of the hook, the team passed a small lasso through the scope. We needed to slide the lasso over the eye of the hook, then tighten it as close as possible to the point embedded in the turtle’s stomach – a challenging task, since the hook was lodged flat against the stomach wall and hidden by the papillae. But after four hours, our team was finally able to free the hook and pulled it out through the turtle’s mouth.</p>
<h2>Recovery and release</h2>
<p>It took almost four months, but after a complete recovery, Toni was ready to go home. Once Toni was healthy, we outfitted her with some tracking technology and released her. The hope is that she can help teach conservationists more about her species. You can track Toni and see where she is swimming by <a href="https://imms.org/track-our-turtles-3/">visiting the IMMS website</a>.</p>
<p>Rescuing this turtle, removing the hook and eventually releasing her back into the wild was an incredibly rewarding process. Everyone on the team knew that because of our efforts, Toni could go on to lay eggs and help support her species. But biologists, veterinarians and the Kemp’s ridley turtles can’t do this alone. We need the public’s help to alert our rescue team if they come across a stranded animal and – more importantly – to take steps to limit the risks these turtles face so that we wont need to rescue Toni again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Debra Moore receives funding from National Fish and Wildlife Foundation through Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Thomason does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle, every individual matters. A team of veterinarians and biologists has formed a network along the Gulf Coast to save injured sea turtles and the species.John Thomason, Associate Professor of Small Animal Internal Medicine, Mississippi State UniversityDebra Moore, Assistant Clinical Professor of Veterinary Medicine, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1584832021-04-15T12:39:46Z2021-04-15T12:39:46ZNearly 60 million Americans don’t drink their tap water, research suggests – here’s why that’s a public health problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395072/original/file-20210414-15-q3fwpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5607%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thirsty?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/kitchen-sink-with-running-water-royalty-free-image/168583229">deepblue4you/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine seeing a news report about lead contamination in drinking water in a community that looks like yours. It might make you think twice about whether to drink your tap water or serve it to your kids – especially if you also have experienced tap water problems in the past.</p>
<p>In a new study, my colleagues <a href="https://profiles.stanford.edu/anisha-patel?tab=research-and-scholarship">Anisha Patel</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Francesca-Weaks">Francesca Weaks</a> and I estimate that approximately 61.4 million people in the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.06.21255016">did not drink their tap water</a> as of 2017-2018. Our research, which was released in preprint format on April 8, 2021, and has not yet been peer reviewed, found that this number has grown sharply in the past several years.</p>
<p>Other research has shown that about 2 million Americans <a href="https://www.urbanwaterslearningnetwork.org/resources/closing-the-water-access-gap-in-the-united-states-a-national-action-plan-nov-2019/">don’t have access to clean water</a>. Taking that into account, our findings suggest that about 59 million people have tap water access from either their municipality or private wells or cisterns, but don’t drink it. While some may have contaminated water, others <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/10/12/769783763/philadelphia-promotes-tap-water-amid-national-distrust">may be avoiding water that’s actually safe</a>.</p>
<p>Water insecurity is an underrecognized but growing problem in the U.S. Tap water distrust is part of the problem. And it’s critical to understand what drives it, because people who don’t trust their tap water shift to more expensive and often less healthy options, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1468">bottled water or sugary drinks</a>.</p>
<p>I’m a human biologist and have studied <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c89wo3AAAAAJ&hl=en">water and health</a> for the past decade in places as diverse as Lowland Bolivia and northern Kenya. Now I run the <a href="https://hhd.psu.edu/bbh/research/research-labs/water-health-and-nutrition-lab">Water, Health, and Nutrition Laboratory</a> at Pennsylvania State University. To understand water issues, I talk to people and use large datasets to see whether a problem is unique or widespread, and stable or growing.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vcCXCPD4lYY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video from the South Coast Water District in southern California urges customers to choose tap water over bottled water.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An epidemic of distrust</h2>
<p>According to our research, there’s a growing epidemic of tap water distrust and disuse in the U.S. In a 2020 study, <a href="https://anthropology.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/sera-young.html">anthropologist Sera Young</a> and I found that tap water avoidance was declining before the Flint water crisis that began in 2014. In 2015-2016, however, it started to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027657">increase again for children</a>. </p>
<p>Our new study found that in 2017-2018, the number of Americans who didn’t drink tap water increased at an alarmingly high rate, particularly for Black and Hispanic adults and children. Since 2013-2014 – just before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/michigan-says-flint-water-is-safe-to-drink-but-residents-trust-in-government-has-corroded-95358">Flint water crisis</a> began – the prevalence of adults who do not drink their tap water has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.06.21255016">increased by 40%</a>. Among children, not consuming tap has risen by 63%.</p>
<p>To calculate this change, we used data from the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/about_nhanes.htm">National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey</a>, a nationally representative survey that releases data in two-year cycles. Sampling weights that use demographic characteristics ensure that the people being sampled are representative of the broader U.S. population.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A city worker loads bottled water into a pickup truck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395110/original/file-20210414-23-1ek1uge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jackson, Mississippi, residents pick up bottled water at a city distribution center on Feb. 18, 2021. Much of the city was without because of problems at its water treatment plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherDeepSouth/a0ea7533576145119a3740a170af3eb6/photo">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Racial disparities in tap water consumption</h2>
<p>Communities of color have long experienced environmental injustice across the U.S. Black, Hispanic and Native American residents are more likely to live in environmentally disadvantaged neighborhoods, with exposure to water that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12397">violates</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007361117">quality standards</a>.</p>
<p>Our findings reflect these experiences. We calculated that Black and Hispanic children and adults are two to three times more likely to report not drinking their tap water than members of white households. In 2017-2018, roughly 3 out of 10 Black adults and children and nearly 4 of 10 Hispanic adults and children didn’t drink their tap water. Approximately 2 of 10 Asian Americans didn’t drink from their tap, while only 1 of 10 white Americans didn’t drink their tap water. </p>
<p>When children don’t drink any water on a given day, research shows that they consume <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2019.0693">twice as many calories from sugary drinks</a> as children who drink water. Higher sugary drink consumption increases risk of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db271.htm">cavities, obesity and cardiometabolic diseases</a>. Drinking tap water provides fluoride, which lowers the risk of cavities. Relying on water alternatives is also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022186">much more expensive</a> than drinking tap water.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308458331426549761"}"></div></p>
<h2>What erodes trust</h2>
<p>News reports – particularly high-visibility events like advisories to boil water – lead people to distrust their tap water even after the problem is fixed. For example, a 2019 study showed that water quality violations across the U.S. between 2006 and 2015 led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905385116">increases in bottled water purchases</a> in affected counties as a way to avoid tap water, and purchase rates remained elevated after the violation.</p>
<p>The Flint water crisis drew national attention to water insecurity, even though state and federal regulators were <a href="https://shorensteincenter.org/environmental-justice-unjust-coverage-of-the-flint-water-crisis/">slow to respond to residents’ complaints there</a>. Soon afterward, lead contamination was found in the water supply of Newark, New Jersey; the city is currently <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/us/newark-lead-drinking-water-contamination-lawsuit-settlement/index.html">replacing all lead service lines</a> under a legal settlement. Elsewhere, media outlets and advocacy groups have reported finding tap water samples contaminated with <a href="https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/pfas_contamination/">industrial chemicals</a>, <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/water-quality/how-safe-is-our-drinking-water-a0101771201/">lead, arsenic</a> and <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/water-quality/more-than-25-million-americans-drink-from-the-worst-water-systems/#analysis">other contaminants</a>. </p>
<p>Many other factors can <a href="https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2016.143">cause people to distrust their water supply</a>, including smell, taste and appearance, as well as lower income levels. Location is also an issue: Older U.S. cities with aging infrastructure are more prone to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X20904431">water shutoffs and water quality problems</a>. </p>
<p>It’s important not to blame people for distrusting what comes out of their tap, because those fears are rooted in history. In my view, addressing water insecurity requires a two-part strategy: ensuring that everyone has access to clean water, and increasing trust so people who have safe water will use it.</p>
<p><iframe id="e8SWm" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e8SWm/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Building confidence</h2>
<p>As part of his proposed infrastructure plan, President Joe Biden is asking Congress for <a href="https://waterfm.com/biden-unveils-2-trillion-infrastructure-plan-water-sector-reacts/">US$111 billion</a> to improve water delivery systems, replace lead pipelines and tackle other contaminants. The plan also proposes improvements for small water systems and underserved communities.</p>
<p>These are critical steps to rebuild trust. Yet, in my view, the Environmental Protection Agency should also provide better public education about water quality testing and <a href="https://www.drinkingwateralliance.org/aqwa">targeted interventions for vulnerable populations</a>, such as children and underserved communities. Initiatives to simplify and improve water quality reports can help people understand what’s in their water and <a href="http://policyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/WaterDataPrize_Report.pdf">what they can do if they think something is wrong with it</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="gKnlV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gKnlV/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Who delivers those messages is important. In areas like Flint, where former government officials have been indicted on charges including <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2021/01/14/nine-michigan-officials-charged-flint-water-crisis/4161106001/">negligence and perjury in connection with the water crisis</a>, the government’s word alone won’t rebuild trust. Instead, <a href="https://beltmag.com/flint-community-water-lab-trust/">community members can fill this critical role</a>.</p>
<p>Another priority is the 13%-15% of Americans who rely on <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/domestic-private-supply-wells?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects">private well water</a>, which is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-04/documents/epa816f04030.pdf">not regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act</a>. These households are responsible for their own water quality testing. Public funding would help them test it regularly and address any problems.</p>
<p>Public distrust of tap water in the U.S. reflects decades of policies that have reduced access to reliable, safe drinking water in communities of color. Fixing water lines is important, but so is giving people confidence to turn on the tap.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Asher Rosinger receives funding from the National Science Foundation on an unrelated project. This work was supported by the Ann Atherton Hertzler Early Career Professorship funds, and the Penn State Population Research Institute (NICHD P2CHD041025). The funders had no role in the research or interpretation of results. </span></em></p>New research finds that tap water avoidance is on the rise in the US, especially among minorities. An expert on water and health calls for better public education about water quality and testing.Asher Rosinger, Assistant Professor of Biobehavioral Health, Anthropology, and Demography. Director, Water, Health, and Nutrition Laboratory, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1564562021-03-07T14:35:47Z2021-03-07T14:35:47ZStates drop COVID-19 mask mandates but still expect people to mask up – will they?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388141/original/file-20210306-13-19um44d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C0%2C3573%2C2257&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Texas' announced it is ending its COVID-19 restrictions. Its vaccination rate is among the lowest in the U.S., and its case numbers are still high.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/san-jose-hotel-engineering-manager-rocky-ontiveros-wears-a-news-photo/1231493646">Montinique Monroe/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://open.texas.gov/uploads/files/organization/opentexas/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf">governors of Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.sos.ms.gov/content/executiveorders/ExecutiveOrders/1549.pdf">Mississippi</a> announced that they were rescinding their statewide mask mandates and allowing restaurants and other businesses to return to 100% capacity in early March. The moves come while new infection numbers in the U.S. <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases">are still higher</a> than they were in September and just ahead of school spring breaks, known for large gatherings and crowded bars where the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103311">coronavirus can quickly spread</a>.</p>
<p>Along with <a href="https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/states-mask-mandates-coronavirus.html#Iowa">Iowa</a>, <a href="https://news.mt.gov/governor-gianforte-issues-new-directives-executive-order">Montana</a> and <a href="https://www.thedickinsonpress.com/news/government-and-politics/6846684-As-statewide-mandate-expires-North-Dakota-cities-hang-onto-mask-requirements">North Dakota</a>, which recently lifted their mask orders, these states are part of an emerging trend of some states bucking national and international public health recommendations. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/alabama-gov-ivey-lifts-statewide-covid-mask-mandate-beginning-april-9.html">Alabama</a> and <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/2021/03/06/utahs-mask-mandate-will/">Utah</a> plan to end their mask requirements in April. <a href="https://governor.wyo.gov/media/news-releases/2021-news-releases/governor-gordon-announces-removal-of-statewide-mask-requirement-lifts-all">Wyoming</a>’s governor announced on March 8 that he would drop his mask order, too.</p>
<p>Residents and visitors in these states will face a situation where masks are no longer required. Yet, many of the <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/04/gov-abbott-ended-texas-mask-mandate-without-input-from-all-his-covid-19-medical-advisors/">same governors lifting the mandates</a> are still urging people to take precautions. </p>
<p>These mixed messages can be confusing. Dropping mask mandates and capacity limits contradicts public health recommendations that were established to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/need-to-know.html">impede the spread of COVID-19</a>. Research shows the public health effect of wearing masks is clear: <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2021.02.006">Mask mandates reduce the spread of COVID-19</a>. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=G7AWX0QAAAAJ&hl=en">public</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=me4Q9y4AAAAJ&hl=en">health</a> <a href="https://temag.tamu.edu/directory/walter-t-casey/">researchers</a>, we study how changing policies have affected the trajectory of the pandemic in the U.S. The end of mask mandates and other restrictions poses three important questions about responsibility, safety and public health. </p>
<h2>What does it mean for individual responsibility?</h2>
<p>Hearing from state leaders that there is no longer a mandate to wear a mask, but that individuals should choose to wear masks and remain vigilant, can be confusing.</p>
<p>If the end of stay-at-home orders last summer and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2019.00056">resistance</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110491">health guidelines</a> over time are any indication of <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-messes-with-texas-what-went-wrong-and-what-other-states-can-learn-as-younger-people-get-sick-141563">what to expect</a>, mask wearing will fall rapidly without a mandate. The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-25/coronavirus-in-texas-covid-19-gives-greg-abbott-a-reality-check">result will likely be less compliance</a> with other practices to reduce COVID-19 spread in public places, such as social distancing, and a related uptick in cases.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Vistors, many without masks, walk the beachfront boardwalk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388144/original/file-20210306-17-vfbrpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388144/original/file-20210306-17-vfbrpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388144/original/file-20210306-17-vfbrpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388144/original/file-20210306-17-vfbrpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388144/original/file-20210306-17-vfbrpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388144/original/file-20210306-17-vfbrpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388144/original/file-20210306-17-vfbrpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Ocean City, Maryland, boardwalk filled up quickly in May 2020 after the town dropped many of its COVID-19-related restrictions. The state now has a mask mandate and doesn’t plan to lift it soon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-enjoy-the-boardwalk-during-the-memorial-day-holiday-news-photo/1214812758">Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This effect may be even stronger when residents’ <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/25/republicans-democrats-move-even-further-apart-in-coronavirus-concerns/">political affiliation is considered</a>, as ending a mask mandate could be viewed as the partisan difference between the belief in working collectively to protect each other and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/covid-vaccine-mask-conspiracies-succeed-when-they-appeal-identity-ideology-ncna1251761">the fear that mandates</a> limit individual freedoms. And if <a href="http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2100351">polling</a> about <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/anti-masking-group-tied-to-anti-vaccination-covid-19-1.5661790">vaccine hesitancy</a> is an indicator, when mask mandates are loosened, it is not unreasonable to expect <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/21546014/mask-mandates-coronavirus-covid-19">mask wearing to be cut in half</a> – <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/83-of-americans-report-that-they-always-wear-a-face-mask-when-out-in-public-according-to-new-state-by-state-survey-findings-from-slickdeals-301164658.html">or decline even more</a>. </p>
<h2>Does it mean that residents of these states are now safer from COVID-19 risks?</h2>
<p>The short answer is “no.” The message that masks are no longer required may lead to a false sense of increased safety from the virus. </p>
<p>Yet, new daily cases and hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the U.S., and particularly in Texas, were <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/texas">higher on March 1, 2021, than they were on Oct. 1, 2020</a>. Unfortunately, several more-contagious variants of the virus are also now starting to spread – <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/Houston-is-first-city-to-record-all-major-COVID-15990299.php">Houston has had cases of all the major variants</a>. Wearing masks is a known and effective barrier that reinforces the immunity gained from vaccinations or illness recovery and avoid spreading viruses.</p>
<p>While no state is fully vaccinated yet, Texas and Mississippi have an even longer way to go than most. They <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations">rank 45th and 44th</a> among states by the percentage of their population fully vaccinated. Vaccinations are also only <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/10/vaccines-alone-wont-end-pandemic/">one piece</a> of the public health response.</p>
<p>Public health guidance still recommends vaccinated people wear masks, practice social distancing and wash their hands to avoid spreading the coronavirus to those who are not protected. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00759-3">These mitigation efforts have been shown to work</a>, especially when applied consistently and broadly.</p>
<p><iframe id="lFl6N" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lFl6N/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Several studies have demonstrated a decline in infection rates from having mask mandates in place. A <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7010e3">study released March 5</a> by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that implementing mask mandates had been associated with a drop in the growth of daily COVID-19 cases within 20 days of being implemented, while allowing in-restaurant dining was associated with an increase in daily cases. Another study determined that mask mandates in 15 states and the District of Columbia helped <a href="https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818">avoid more than 200,000 cases</a> in April and May 2020.</p>
<p>“With the emergence of more transmissible COVID-19 variants, community mitigation measures are increasingly important as part of a larger strategy to decrease exposure to and reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2,” the CDC authors wrote. </p>
<h2>Why isn’t there a consistent message?</h2>
<p>Rescinding the mask order also places burdens on businesses to decide which, if any, guidelines to follow. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, education and health care have generally responded in favor of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/texas-doctors-say-gov-greg-abbott-s-decision-scrap-mask-n1259513">continuing to require masks and follow public health guidelines</a>. Some other industries and retailers took the opportunity to <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/business/2021/03/03/392771/heres-how-retail-chains-are-responding-to-texas-lifting-its-covid-19-mask-mandate/">revise their COVID-19 policies</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="ylmXy" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ylmXy/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Businesses in some areas <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/07/texas-businesses-masks-threats/">have faced</a> <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/22/texas-coronavirus-masks/">a backlash</a> for requiring patrons to wear masks when the state did not mandate it. Those that operate in multiple states may also need to address differing mask requirements and balance the public health and business cases for masks. Federal requirements for wearing masks on airplanes and certain other places can further confound business operations when patrons are unclear about the requirements and potential for penalties if they do not comply.</p>
<h2>Past experience shows the value of mandates</h2>
<p>Already, Texas is seeing the result of the state rescinding its mask mandate and gathering restrictions as <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/02/tarrant-county-ends-its-mask-mandate-after-texas-gov-greg-abbott-says-statewide-covid-19-orders-will-end-next-week/">municipalities follow suit</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>We know from earlier attempts to rely on personal responsibility, <a href="https://www.history.com/news/seat-belt-laws-resistance">like seat belt laws</a>, as well as with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/when-it-comes-to-nutrition-were-all-too-eager-to-ignore-the-evidence-heres-why/2020/02/23/d4dd8534-54a8-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html">nutrition</a> choices and <a href="https://www.who.int/bulletin/archives/78(7)902.pdf">tobacco use</a>, that some people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.glt.2020.06.003">will do the safe thing</a> only if <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.10.035">the law requires</a> it. </p>
<p>After all, people tend to follow the maxim that “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40711861">what isn’t forbidden is permitted</a>.”</p>
<p><em>This story was updated March 9 with Wyoming also planning to lift restrictions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The COVID-19 case spike in the summer of 2020 and earlier attempts to rely on personal responsibility, like wearing seat belts, showed that mandates make a difference.Murray J. Côté, Associate Professor of Health Policy and Management, Texas A&M UniversityTiffany A. Radcliff, Associate Dean for Research and Professor of Health Policy and Management, Texas A&M UniversityWalter Thomas Casey II, Associate Professor of Political Science, Texas A&M University-TexarkanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1522202021-01-05T13:09:39Z2021-01-05T13:09:39ZMississippi just got rid of its Electoral College-like election process<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377076/original/file-20210104-17-1ap1208.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=102%2C3%2C574%2C592&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Until this year, people who wanted to live here had to win not just more votes than their opponents, but more state legislative districts too.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.mdah.ms.gov/senseofplace/2010/11/03/mississippi-governors-mansion/">Mississippi Department of Archives and History</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Americans watch the Electoral College process of choosing a president continue to play out, they may be unaware that voters in Mississippi just decided to get rid of a similar system in their state.</p>
<p>Like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-invented-the-electoral-college-147083">national system of electors</a>, the Mississippi system had its roots in both <a href="https://www.mississippifreepress.org/6658/voters-could-end-mississippis-jim-crow-electoral-college-like-system-for-governor-races/">a racist election process</a> and the desire to protect the needs of rural residents from being ignored or overruled by city dwellers.</p>
<p>The state’s 1890 Constitution requires a candidate for statewide office to win not only the majority of the popular vote, but <a href="https://law.justia.com/constitution/mississippi/">also a majority of the 122 state House districts</a>. A candidate could win the statewide popular vote, but if they didn’t win the majority of the state House districts, the election would be decided by the state House of Representatives. Those representatives weren’t required to vote in accordance with the majority in their district. </p>
<p>This requirement has been cited as <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mississippi-vote-jim-crow-era-law-designed-secure/story?id=72862667">reducing the chances for nonwhite candidates</a> to be elected to statewide office. In a state where <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MS">56% of the population is white</a> – the rest are Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native or multiracial – 66% of the House districts are majority white.</p>
<h2>Rarely used and now expired</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mississippi's legislative districts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1204&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1204&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377075/original/file-20210104-17-n8buyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1204&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of Mississippi’s legislative districts based on the 2000 census.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.mshistorynow.mdah.ms.gov/articles/361/the-federal-census-why-people-are-counted">Mississippi Secretary of State via Mississippi Historical Society</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The state House has made the decision only a small number of times, and just once at the level of the governor’s race. In 1999, then-Lt. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, a Democrat, defeated Republican Mike Parker in a very tight contest. Musgrove won a plurality of the statewide popular vote, 49.6% to 48.5%.</p>
<p>But each candidate won 61 of the House districts, sending the decision to the state House of Representatives. At that time, Democrats held 84 seats, ensuring a majority. Two Republicans joined them to elect Musgrove by a margin of 86-36.</p>
<p>Twenty years later, as Election Day approached, the gubernatorial election was again considered close enough to potentially trigger this process. But ultimately, it didn’t happen: Republican Tate Reeves, then serving as lieutenant governor, beat then-state Attorney General Jim Hood, a Democrat, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-mississippi-governor-general-election.html">52% to 46%</a>. Reeves also won 74 of the 122 state House districts.</p>
<p>However, in advance of that election, four Black Mississippi residents filed a lawsuit claiming the system <a href="https://theconversation.com/mississippi-governors-race-taking-place-under-jim-crow-era-rules-after-judge-refuses-to-block-them-126296">violated their federal civil rights</a>. The Mississippi Legislature responded by asking voters whether this Jim Crow-era process should still exist.</p>
<h2>Changing the rules</h2>
<p>In the November 2020 election, Mississippi voters decided to end that process and replace it with the requirement that a candidate get a majority of the votes cast <a href="http://billstatus.ls.state.ms.us/documents/2020/pdf/HC/HC0047PS.pdf">or face a runoff election</a> if nobody gets more than 50% of the vote. In other states, this process has <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-georgias-runoff-voting-and-its-racist-roots-150356">its own racist history</a> as a way to limit Blacks’ political power. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Supported by more than 78% of the state’s voters during <a href="https://www.sos.ms.gov/About/Pages/Press-Release.aspx?pr=1160">an election with record turnout</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/mississippi/ballot-measures/">the change</a> formally <a href="https://sos.ms.gov/elections/electionresults/2020General/Statewide%20Certified%20Results/Measure%202%20-%20House%20Concurrent%20Resolution%2047.pdf">took effect this month</a>. </p>
<p>The people of Mississippi and their elected officials have sent a clear message that for statewide elections, they prefer the popular vote over a system like the Electoral College.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152220/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dallas Breen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since 1890, Mississippi has required candidates for statewide office to win not only more votes than opponents across the whole state, but also in every legislative district.Dallas Breen, Assistant Research Professor in Political Science and Public Administration, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460672020-10-28T12:25:18Z2020-10-28T12:25:18ZScientists at work: Sloshing through marshes to see how birds survive hurricanes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365956/original/file-20201027-15-1o2njm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C0%2C1280%2C931&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A clapper rail with a fiddler crab in its bill.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Gray</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When hurricanes menace the Gulf Coast, residents know the drill: Board up windows, clear storm drains, gas up the car and stock up on water, batteries and canned goods.</p>
<p>But how does wildlife ride out a hurricane? Animals that live along coastlines have evolved to deal with a world where conditions can change radically. This year, however, the places they inhabit have borne the brunt of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/26/zeta-louisiana-florida-flooding/">10 named storms</a>, some just a few weeks apart.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jJytBnoAAAAJ&hl=en">wildlife</a> <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mark_Woodrey">ecologists</a>, we are interested in how species respond to stresses in their environment. We are currently studying how marsh birds such as <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Clapper_Rail/overview">clapper rails</a> (<em>Rallus crepitans</em>) have adapted to tropical storms along the Alabama and Mississippi Gulf coast. Understanding how they do this entails wading into marshes and thinking like a small, secretive bird. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Least bittern in marsh grass" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365955/original/file-20201027-13-1op6sa3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A least bittern, one of the smallest species of heron.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Gray</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mucky and full of life</h2>
<p>Coastal wetlands are <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/habitat-conservation/coastal-wetlands-too-valuable-lose">critically important ecosystems</a>. They harbor fish, shellfish and wading birds, filter water as it flows through and buffer coastlines against flooding. </p>
<p>You wouldn’t choose a Gulf Coast salt marsh for a casual stroll. There are sharp-pointed plants, such as <a href="https://plants.usda.gov/factsheet/pdf/fs_juro.pdf">black needlerush</a>, and sucking mud. In summer and early fall the marshes are oppressively hot and humid. Bacteria and fungi in the mud break down dead material, generating sulfurous-smelling gases. But once you get used to the conditions, you realize how productive these places are, with a myriad of organisms moving about. </p>
<p>Marsh birds are adept at hiding in dense grasses, so it’s more common to hear them than to see them. That’s why we use a process known as a callback survey to monitor for them. </p>
<p>First we play a prerecorded set of calls to elicit responses from birds in the marsh. Then we determine where we think the birds are calling from and visually estimate the distance from the observer to that spot, often using tools such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_rangefinder">laser range finders</a>. We also note the type of ecosystem where we detect the birds – for example, whether they’re in a tidal marsh with emergent vegetation or out in the open on mud flats.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/y3b9fOUrdzQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Adult clapper rail calling.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Through this process we’ve been able to estimate the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1672/08-174.1">distributions of several species</a> in tidal marshes, including clapper rails, <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Least_Bittern/overview">least bitterns</a> (<em>Ixobrychus exilis</em>) and <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/seaside_sparrow">seaside sparrows</a> (<em>Ammospiza maritima</em>). We’ve also plotted trends in their abundance and identified how their numbers can change with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-018-1082-x">characteristics of the marsh</a>. </p>
<p>We’ve walked hundreds of miles through marshes to locate nests and to record data such as nest height, density of surrounding vegetation and proximity to standing water, which provides increased foraging opportunities for rails. Then we revisit the nests to document whether they produce young that hatch and eventually leave. Success isn’t guaranteed: Predators may eat the eggs, or flooding could wash them out of the nest and kill the developing embryos inside. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3E32JHYSdSU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Salt marshes shelter many types of plants, birds, animals, fish and shellfish.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rails in the grass</h2>
<p>Our research currently focuses on clapper rails, which look like slender chickens with grayish-brown feathers and short tails. Like many other marsh birds, they have longish legs and toes for walking across soft mud, and long bills for probing the marsh surface in search of food. They are found year-round along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. </p>
<p>Clapper rails typically live in tidal marshes where there is vegetation to hide in and plenty of fiddler crabs, among <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12237-010-9281-6">their frequent foods</a>. Because they are generally common and rely on coastal marshes, they are a good indicator of the health of these coastal areas. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scientist in marsh holding live Clapper Rail" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365944/original/file-20201027-14-smv7k7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ecologist Scott Rush with clapper rail, Pascagoula River Marshes, Mississippi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Woodrey</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Water levels in tidal marshes change daily, and clapper rails have some adaptations that help them thrive there. They often build nests in areas with particularly tall vegetation to hide them from predators. And they can raise the height of the nest bowl to protect it against flooding during <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/cond.2010.090078">extra-high or “king” tides and storms</a>. The embryos inside their eggs can survive even if the eggs are submerged for several hours. </p>
<p>When a tropical storm strikes, many factors – including wind speed, flooding and the storm’s position – influence how severely it will affect marsh birds. Typically birds ride out storms by moving to higher areas of the marsh. However, if a storm generates extensive flooding, birds in affected areas may swim or be blown to other locations. We saw this in early June when Hurricane Cristobal <a href="https://www.wlox.com/2020/06/09/marsh-birds-blown-by-cristobal-out-place-beach/">blew hundreds of clapper rails onto beaches</a> in parts of coastal Mississippi. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Clapper rails hiding under a breakwater" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365938/original/file-20201027-18-1okc6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clapper rails on a Mississippi beach after Hurricane Cristobal in June 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Woodrey</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In coastal areas immediately to the east of the eye of a tropical cyclone we typically see a drop in clapper rail populations in the following spring and summer. This happens because the counterclockwise rotation of the storms results in the highest winds and storm surge to the north and east of the eye of the storm. </p>
<p>But typically there’s a strong bout of breeding and a population rebound within a year or so – evidence that these birds are quick to adapt. After Hurricane Katrina devastated the Mississippi Gulf Coast in 2005, however, depending on the type of marsh, it took several years for rail populations to return to their pre-Katrina levels. </p>
<p>Now we’re radio-tagging clapper rails and collecting data that allow us to determine the birds’ life spans. This information helps us estimate when large numbers of birds have died – information that we can correlate with events like coastal hurricanes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="2020 Atlantic hurricane paths" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365873/original/file-20201027-17-x8plpi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Summary map of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, updated Oct. 27.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png">Master0Garfield/Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Losing parts</h2>
<p>Tropical storms have shaped coastal ecosystems since long before recorded history. But over the past 150 years humans have complicated the picture. Coastal development – draining marshes, building roads and reinforcing shorelines – is altering natural places that support marsh birds. </p>
<p>Clapper rails and other species have evolved traits that help them offset population losses due to natural disasters. But they can do so only if the ecosystems where they live keep providing them with food, breeding habitat and protection from predators. Coastal development, in combination with <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level">rising sea levels</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117">larger tropical storms</a>, can act like a one-two punch, making it increasingly hard for marshes and the species that live in them to recover.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Biologist Paul Ehrlich has compared species at risk to <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1313377">rivets on an airplane</a>. You might not need every rivet in place for the airplane to fly, but would you fly it through a cyclone if you knew that 10% of its rivets were missing? What about 20%, or 30%? At some point, Ehrlich asserts, nature could lose so many species that it becomes unable to provide valuable services that humans take for granted.</p>
<p>We see coastal marshes as an airplane that humans are piloting through storms. As species and ecosystem services are pummeled, rivets are failing. No one knows where or how the aircraft will land. But we believe that preserving marshes instead of weakening them can improve the chance of a smooth landing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Rush receives funding from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Woodrey receives funding from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, and the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station. </span></em></p>Birds found along the Gulf Coast have evolved to ride out hurricanes and tropical storms. But with development degrading the marshes where they live, it’s getting harder for them to bounce back.Scott Rush, Assistant Professor of Wildlife Ecology and Management, Mississippi State UniversityMark Woodrey, Assistant Research Professor, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1421372020-09-16T11:23:51Z2020-09-16T11:23:51ZHow a new way of parsing COVID-19 data began to show the breadth of health gaps between Blacks and whites<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357749/original/file-20200912-24-1w933ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=671%2C0%2C5818%2C4310&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Breaking down COVID-19 data into demographic groups helps scientists learn more about the virus.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/doctor-consoling-sad-senior-male-patient-royalty-free-image/1136848442?adppopup=true">izusek via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Physicians and public health experts know that older adults are more <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/65over.htm">susceptible to the flu</a> than those in other age groups. We also know the health of Black Americans is worse than that of almost all other groups for not only flu, but for chronic conditions and cancer. These are two examples of health disparities, or health gaps – when demographic groups show differences in disease severity. </p>
<p>As we analyze the latest data from the COVID-19 pandemic, a more complete picture on infections, hospitalizations and death rates has emerged, along with new conversations <a href="https://www.covid19conversations.org/webinars/equity">about health disparities</a>. The COVID data underscore what social scientists, epidemiologists and other public health researchers have long said: It is not enough to look at a lump sum of data about any health issue, including COVID-19, and think we have the full picture. </p>
<p>By disaggregating the data – that is, breaking the data down into subgroups, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/09/black-nursing-homes-coronavirus/">like age and race</a> – we can learn how to make the most of our limited resources. Do that, and we can better strive for a more equitable society and increased entry to a healthy lifestyle for all Americans.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.fsnhp.msstate.edu/associate.php?id=151">practitioner and scholar</a> at Mississippi State University (sometimes we call ourselves <a href="https://jphmpdirect.com/public-health-pracademics/">pracademics</a>), I am driven by compassion and science. Now, with the recent advent of faster and faster access to more and more data, collecting and analyzing disaggregated information – data about gender, ethnicity, disability and neighborhoods, along with age and race – <a href="https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2020/05/health-equity-principles-for-state-and-local-leaders-in-responding-to-reopening-and-recovering-from-covid-19.html">has become one of the biggest components</a> of public health practice. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Mississippi state senator Brice Wiggins studies the state's COVID-19 cases and deaths showing breakdowns by ethnicity and race." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358004/original/file-20200914-14-qaspre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358004/original/file-20200914-14-qaspre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358004/original/file-20200914-14-qaspre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358004/original/file-20200914-14-qaspre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358004/original/file-20200914-14-qaspre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358004/original/file-20200914-14-qaspre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358004/original/file-20200914-14-qaspre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mississippi state Sen. Brice Wiggins studies a graph showing the state’s COVID-19 cases and deaths by race and ethnicity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakMississippi/86bb5a7dd2f64249a6e9bb3a26866855/photo?Query=Mississippi%20COVID-19&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=615&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Musings from Mississippi</h2>
<p>Early in the pandemic, as the virus reached Mississippi, its <a href="https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html#Mississippi">state Department of Health</a> began reporting numbers each day. To be able to assess case and mortality rates, I linked data with the census reports of Mississippi’s population. </p>
<p>I quickly found this: The percentage of African Americans who got COVID-19 was higher than that for whites; the percentage of African Americans who died from it was also higher than that for whites. But among all people, whites were more likely to die from COVID-19 if they got it. </p>
<p>I was curious the rates would change direction between races. Because I was examining total population data – not data disaggregated by setting – I thought there might be something about a particular setting or subpopulation that was driving that odd finding. Maybe it was a specific part of the state or a certain sector of the workforce? Maybe it had something to do with long-term care facilities? That last question would be an important one. </p>
<p>After breaking down the data across settings, and looking at just the rates for people living in the community versus those living in a long-term care or nursing home facility, it all began to make sense. I found the unusual change in the data’s direction resulted from the long-term care population’s being overwhelmed with cases. In Mississippi, our long-term care residents are more likely to be white. The relationship between race and COVID-19 mortality is different between the community and long-term care facilities. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="In July, House Speaker Philip Gunn of Mississippi revealed he tested positive for COVID-19. At a drive-thru center at the state Capitol in Jackson, a medical team takes information from a person potentially affected." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358006/original/file-20200914-20-fnccu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358006/original/file-20200914-20-fnccu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358006/original/file-20200914-20-fnccu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358006/original/file-20200914-20-fnccu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358006/original/file-20200914-20-fnccu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358006/original/file-20200914-20-fnccu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358006/original/file-20200914-20-fnccu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In July, Mississippi House Speaker Philip Gunn confirmed he tested positive for COVID-19. At a drive-thru test center on state Capitol grounds in Jackson, a medical team takes information from a person potentially affected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakMississippi/409f947fb1ab4079bc47f0a4c21cb21e/photo?Query=Mississippi%20COVID-19%20drive%20thru%20tests&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=9&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>From a statistical perspective, disaggregation is important. It gives us the backing we need to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between factors like race and COVID-19 infection and mortality rates.</p>
<p>The case in Mississippi tells us that if we don’t disaggregate the data, we would have an incorrect picture of what’s happening with COVID-19. We would have probably patted ourselves on the back for not having such bad racial disparities after all. But a deeper dive into the data shows that racial disparities persist. And when we look at long-term care facilities, we find problems of a different sort.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>My experience in exploring COVID-19 cases is specific to Mississippi. We need to replicate this nationally, and with other subpopulations, including K-12, college and university settings, residential care facilities and prisons. We must also bring representatives from these populations to the table and engage them in the decision-making process. Furthermore, <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200319.757883/full/?">the data</a> should drive our advocacy for resources at the local, state and federal levels. More than ever before, we must rely on science to guide us in responding to COVID-19 and future public health crises.</p>
<p>As society eventually recuperates from COVID-19, we must not lose sight of the lessons it has taught us. Our data must be granular enough so we can know how each subpopulation is handling not just COVID-19, but chronic disease, cancer, injuries and gun violence. Then, and only then, can we improve our decision-making on health issues and make sure access to public health services and clinical care is available for everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142137/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David R. Buys receives funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, and the United States Department of Agriculture.</span></em></p>Getting the real answers on health gaps requires a deep dive into the demographics.David R. Buys, State Health Specialist and Associate Professor, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1441722020-08-25T12:23:04Z2020-08-25T12:23:04ZBiloxi’s 15-year recovery from Hurricane Katrina offers lessons for other coastal cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354254/original/file-20200823-24-ft3u3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C14%2C4789%2C3161&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A demolished miniature golf course in Biloxi, Miss., in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Sept. 15, 2005.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/broken-miniature-golf-pieces-in-the-ruins-of-biloxi-news-photo/564112973?adppopup=true">Carol M. Highsmith/Buyenlarge/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The one-two punch of tropical storms <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153825.shtml?cone#contents">Marco</a> and <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/152713.shtml?cone#contents">Laura</a> along the U.S. Gulf coast eerily echoes Hurricane Katrina’s arrival 15 years ago, on August 29, 2005. Katrina, which caused some <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events">US$170 billion</a> in damages, remains the most costly storm in U.S. history.</p>
<p>Much attention in 2005 focused on the devastating flooding that Katrina wreaked in New Orleans. But other hard-hit towns also have stories to tell. I’ve spent 15 years researching the storm’s effects in Mississippi, centering on the city of <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/biloxicitymississippi/INC110218">Biloxi</a>, home to about 46,000 people.</p>
<p>Biloxi’s <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/visitor-info/history/">history</a>, culture and economy are tied to the Gulf, driven by seafood and tourism. Its nickname is “<a href="https://www.pnj.com/story/life/2015/09/29/biloxi-the-playground-of-the-south/73052612/">the playground of the South</a>,” an allusion to local beaches and its <a href="https://biloxihistoricalsociety.org/casinos-gambling-liquor-and-vice">long history of illegal gambling</a>. </p>
<p>Today the gaming is legal: <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/visitor-info/casinos/">Eight</a> of <a href="https://www.msgamingcommission.com/reports/property_data">Mississippi’s casinos</a> are located in Biloxi. Those casinos employ <a href="https://www.msgamingcommission.com/files/quarterly_reports/MRpt7Y20-Property.pdf">over 7,200 people</a> and generate <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/statereport082020.pdf">close to $20 million annually</a> for the city.</p>
<p>In my forthcoming book, “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781793610133/Mississippi-after-Katrina-Disaster-Recovery-and-Reconstruction-on-the-Gulf-Coast">Mississippi After Katrina: Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction on the Gulf Coast</a>,” I explore Biloxi’s story and what it can tell other U.S. communities about long-term disaster recovery.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/47191375" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Biloxi residents describe the rebuilding process after Katrina in this 2012 video.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A regional tragedy</h2>
<p>As Katrina made landfall, wind, rain and storm surge devastated the Gulf Coast. Water began <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5200940">flooding New Orleans</a>, pouring through levees <a href="https://www.gao.gov/new.items/d051050t.pdf">designed to protect the city</a>. As President George W. Bush later acknowledged, his administration’s ineffective response was <a href="https://www.nola.com/news/article_9b0ff883-2078-5662-8e6b-b8296249a161.html">his presidency’s low point</a>.</p>
<p>Katrina also ravaged a wide area beyond New Orleans. Towns along the Mississippi Gulf Coast faced the storm’s <a href="https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/2018/09/16/breakdown-what-is-strongest-side-hurricane/">strongest side</a>. In <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/photosvideos/katrina-video-3/">Biloxi</a>, Katrina <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/katrina-biloxi/stats/">killed 53 people</a> and destroyed <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/residents/storm-and-flood-preparedness/hurricane-katrina-preliminary-damage-assessment/">nearly 20% of the town</a>.</p>
<p>Thousands of residents <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1209/ML12093A081.pdf">sheltered locally</a>, and many were left in <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/wp-content/static/katrina/recovery-newsletters/mailout_2005-12-01_p4.pdf">temporary housing</a> afterward. Over <a href="https://www.congress.gov/109/crpt/srpt322/CRPT-109srpt322.pdf">65,000 jobs were lost</a>. Casino closures cost Biloxi <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/resources/gaming-revenues/totals/">millions of dollars in revenues</a>. Biloxi’s population <a href="https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&met_y=population&idim=sub_county:2806220:2829700:2853520&hl=en&dl=en">dropped by 8%</a> after Katrina, a loss it never recovered.</p>
<h2>Years of challenge</h2>
<p>Biloxi and other communities weren’t out of the woods after Katrina. Other disasters followed – most notably, the 2008-2009 <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20100902a.htm">recession</a> and the 2010 <a href="https://www.wlox.com/story/31777028/effects-of-bp-oil-spill-still-felt-6-years-later/">Deepwater Horizon oil spill</a>.</p>
<p>These events prolonged Katrina’s economic pain. In 2010-2011 I met Biloxians who were still working to rebuild storm-damaged homes. Many lots sat empty, either for sale or awaiting construction. </p>
<p>Biloxians who wanted to return after Katrina told me about challenges they faced. Key issues included finding housing; covering rising costs for rebuilding; elevating structures to meet new flood requirements; paying higher insurance premiums; and waiting for the city to repair utilities and infrastructure.</p>
<p><a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/restore-biloxi/">That work is still ongoing</a>. It took six years to complete planning and secure federal funding for the Restore Biloxi Project, a $355 million effort to <a href="https://www.wlox.com/story/18429633/massive-biloxi-project-restores-damaged-water-sewer-system/">replace water, sewer and drainage systems</a> damaged during Katrina. In 2019 the city <a href="https://www.sunherald.com/news/local/counties/harrison-county/article232410692.html">sued the Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> for refusing to pay some costs for the project, now scheduled for completion in 2024. </p>
<p>Local road repairs and paving continue in the <a href="https://biloxi.ms.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BnewsMonthlyAugust2020.pdf">hardest hit neighborhoods</a>. This isn’t unusual in heavily damaged areas as attention and funding priorities change over time. But waning attention and support are critical obstacles to rebuilding neighborhoods. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1173346587436826627"}"></div></p>
<h2>Long-term recovery</h2>
<p>Long-term disaster recovery is never just about one event. It is a complex lived experience of simultaneously coping with recovery, new disasters and daily life.</p>
<p>This is especially true along the Gulf Coast, which is frequently struck by hurricanes and tropical storms. Many Biloxians I spoke with described how experiences with previous hurricanes – notably, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/mob/camille">Camille in 1969</a> – influenced their Katrina decision-making. One refrain I heard was “I didn’t evacuate for Katrina because I was okay in Camille.” In this case, <a href="https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-people-didnt-evacuate-before-hurricane-matthew-why-not-66724">past experience was a poor guide</a>.</p>
<p>Some residents supported rebuilding casinos quickly after Katrina because they remembered Mississippi’s <a href="https://www.msgamingcommission.com/about/history">legalization of casinos in 1990</a> as a key point in long-term recovery from Camille. But this perception shifted with time. Critics, such as members of <a href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/stories/group-lives-up-to-its-name-coastal-women-for-change/">Coastal Women for Change</a>, a local advocacy group, began to question <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129375373">why government officials prioritized casinos</a> over nearby homes. </p>
<p>Before Katrina, Mississippi had required casinos to be located offshore on barges as a way of confining gambling. After the storm, the state legislature amended the law, allowing casinos to be <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/weather-july-dec05-rebuilding_biloxi">rebuilt on land within 800 feet of the waterfront</a>. This decision gave casinos and other developers access to land that had been formerly housed some of Biloxi’s most racially, ethnically and financially diverse neighborhoods.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing hurricanes strikes on U.S. coasts 1950-2017." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354257/original/file-20200823-20-tnnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricanes frequently strike the U.S. Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.jpg">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Thinking small and local</h2>
<p>When communities receive disaster aid, the focus is often on large institutions like the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.redcross.org/">Red Cross</a>. But I found in my research that Biloxians had much more positive views of efforts by individuals, local organizations and small groups. </p>
<p>People told me about co-workers who sheltered them during extended waits for <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/08/28/fema-trailers-brought-shelter-problems-katrina-victims/71342988/">FEMA trailers</a>. Local groups like the Biloxi chapter of the NAACP and Coastal Women for Change helped people obtain supplies, child care and computer literacy training to apply for disaster aid. Small groups of volunteers from across the U.S. cleaned up debris. </p>
<p>Local efforts do not guarantee rapid recovery, but they are critical to people’s personal and shared recoveries and well-being. Local aid is typically on the ground first after disasters. Organizations rooted in the community may stay longer than national groups, and can shift to meet other needs. For example, Coastal Women for Change has shifted from Katrina recovery to preparedness, advocacy and recovery from other disasters. </p>
<p>Local organizations often more clearly understand and meet local needs. Church-coordinated volunteers hung sheet rock as people returned to damaged homes. The <a href="http://gccds.org/">Gulf Coast Community Design Studio</a> matched experts with locals to design homes that met personal needs. And the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency provided “<a href="http://katrinacottagehousing.org/original.html">Katrina cottages</a>” that better matched local architecture and were more hurricane-resistant than <a href="https://www.wlox.com/story/6281717/mississippi-cottages-to-replace-some-fema-trailers/">FEMA trailers</a>. </p>
<h2>What can we learn?</h2>
<p>What does Biloxi’s experience indicate for other communities ravaged by disasters, whether they are hurricanes, <a href="https://buttecountyrecovers.org/paradise/">wildfires</a> or <a href="https://wvfloodrecovery.com/">floods</a>? In my view, it shows that recovery is a long-term process that requires ongoing support, and is shaped by local history and culture.</p>
<p>Viewing recovery this way raises important questions. Who gets to make rebuilding decisions? Where does funding go? Are local needs being met?</p>
<p>State and national officials make critical decisions about funding and laws related to recovery, like allowing casinos to rebuild on land in Biloxi. National and international NGOs can bring in much needed financial aid and expertise. But when those officials and organizations fail to incorporate local needs and voices, local residents may remain frustrated and see their recovery delayed by outside decision-making, other funding priorities and competing disasters. </p>
<p>Every storm that hits the Gulf Coast is unique in some way, but some things about the recovery process are constant. As I see it, recovery starts at the local level. Involving a broad and diverse set of local residents in the process and paying attention to the community’s history are essential to ensure a full recovery.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144172/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Trivedi has received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF #1331269). </span></em></p>After the news media move on from a major disaster site, rebuilding continues for years.Jennifer Trivedi, Assistant Professor of Anthropology and Core Faculty Member for the Disaster Research Center, University of DelawareLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1331352020-03-11T15:14:15Z2020-03-11T15:14:15ZBiden’s big night with moderates, African Americans and baby boomers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319774/original/file-20200311-116270-17qu4ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Joe Biden enters a campaign event in Columbus, Ohio on March 10.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Joe-Biden/2cc81ddbdb424dbbbe52232be8e9d7ce/33/0">AP Photo/Paul Vernon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: With the race for the Democratic presidential nomination narrowed to two front-runners, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, six states went to the polls on March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington. We asked three scholars to examine the primary results.</em></p>
<p><strong>Keisha N. Blain, University of Pittsburgh</strong></p>
<p>The March 10 Democratic primary results highlight the power of the African American vote. </p>
<p>Despite Sanders’ efforts to reach African American voters, he was unable to win their vote on Tuesday night. He underperformed in several states, including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-bernie-sanders-did-on-super-tuesday-2020-2016-maps-2020-3">some he previously won in 2016</a>. At the heart of Sanders’ loss is the African American vote.</p>
<p>While African American voters are not a monolithic group, the majority lent their support to Biden on March 10. There are <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-has-black-voters-support-over-sanders-it-s-not-ncna1150576">many factors</a> that account for this decision. Many African Americans believe that Biden will <a href="https://apnews.com/ca32b175f2d249e5075bb057afa4748e">extend the legacy of former President Barack Obama</a>. Others are lukewarm towards Sanders because of what they perceive as <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/07/why-bernie-sanders-economic-message-isnt-enough-to-win-over-black-voters-118197">the senator’s emphasis on economic inequality over racial injustice</a>. </p>
<p>These concerns, among others, guaranteed Biden’s lead on Super Tuesday, and they guaranteed his lead last night. The African American vote has now paved the way for Biden’s success.</p>
<p>This is most evident in the state of Mississippi, where African Americans represented <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486936-black-voters-deliver-decisive-victory-for-biden-in-mississippi">approximately 75% of the Democratic primary vote</a>, the highest rate of any state to date. Despite a significant endorsement from <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryancbrooks/bernie-sanders-2020-mississippi-endorse-lumumba">Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba of Jackson, Mississippi</a>, Sanders managed to win only 14.9% of the black vote in Mississippi. Biden won <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/10/21171465/mississippi-primary-winner-joe-biden-super-tuesday-2?__c=1">a whopping 81%</a>.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, it is unlikely that Sanders will be able to secure enough delegates to seize the Democratic nomination. His inability to win over black voters will certainly guarantee this outcome. Much like the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-bernie-sanders-did-on-super-tuesday-2020-2016-maps-2020-3">primaries of 2016</a>, <a href="http://keishablain.com/about">I expect</a> Sanders will come close to a win – but not close enough.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319874/original/file-20200311-116270-k1hl7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sanders greets voters outside a polling location at Warren E. Bow Elementary School in Detroit, Michigan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Election-2020-Bernie-Sanders/87dc87d0f5b64e0db862b8e5328bd039/13/0">AP Photo/Paul Sancya</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Luke Perry, Utica University</strong></p>
<p>Joe Biden’s post-South Carolina <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-rolls-on-with-big-win-in-michigan-grows-delegate-lead-over-sanders/ar-BB110VXQ">dominance continued in Michigan</a>, the big prize yesterday with over <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/michigan/">one-third of the delegates in play</a> for that evening. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2012/11/12/politics/blue-wall-democrats-election/index.html">Obama carried Michigan</a> in 2008 and 2012 as part of the Democratic “blue wall” in the Midwest.</p>
<p>Biden on Tuesday won 52.9% of the Michigan primary vote, securing 53 delegates. This is 14 more than Sanders, who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/us/politics/primary-elections-michigan.html">won Michigan in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Turnout was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/in-crushing-blow-to-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-scores-big-michigan-win-idUSKBN20X162">up 30%</a> compared with the 2016 primary. Biden <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/michigan-democratic-primary-live-results/">leads all</a> of Michigan’s 83 counties except for Ingham County, which is too close to call.</p>
<p>Biden’s strongest showing was among <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/michigan-democratic-primary-live-results/">older voters</a>, besting Sanders among those 45 and older.</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/michigan/president">79%</a> of Michigan voters were over 30. Trump outperformed Hillary Clinton among this group. </p>
<p>During Obama’s second term, party affiliation among baby boomers (age 52 to 70) and the Silent Generation (age 71 to 88) shifted from evenly divided between the two major parties to decidedly Republican.</p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/">53%</a> of the Silent Generation identified as Republican in 2016, and 40% as Democrat. This was a complete reversal from 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected.</p>
<p>Republicans have already begun to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/trump-biden-clinton-age-senile-124797">frame Biden’s age, 77, negatively</a>. But Biden’s appeal to older voters in swing states like Michigan and Florida could be key to the Democrats’ future.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319875/original/file-20200311-116261-1pjsvsi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">King County Election workers collect ballots from a drop box in the Washington State primary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Washington/1f03e8f2d5f0447aac4b911818bec929/25/0">AP Photo/John Froschauer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Matthew May, Boise State University</strong></p>
<p>The results of Idaho’s Democratic primary help illustrate how much the rules of an electoral contest can shape its story.</p>
<p>Heading into Tuesday’s presidential primary, there were two unanswered questions in Idaho. </p>
<p>First, it was the first time Democratic voters would be casting ballots in a presidential primary, after decades of caucuses. How much would Democrats switching from a caucus to a primary affect voter turnout? Second, would Sanders be able to replicate <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/sanders-wins-idaho-221138">his decisive 2016 victory</a>, where he won 43 of Idaho’s 44 counties, under a primary? </p>
<p>The answers: Turnout did dramatically increase, but Sanders did not get another win.</p>
<p>The move from caucuses to a primary this year followed <a href="https://www.idahopress.com/news/local/idaho-dems-to-switch-to-presidential-primary-rather-than-caucuses/article_36285da4-e7ee-5024-91a3-ba07e91cc373.html">long wait times across the state</a> in 2016 and generally low voter turnout in the caucuses. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-democrats-move-away-from-caucuses-affect-the-2020-race/">Many states explored</a> making this move following the last presidential primary cycle, because research shows that it improves turnout. </p>
<p>While a highly contested race certainly helped, Idaho’s switch from a caucus to a primary appears to have successfully increased voter turnout. In both 2008 and 2016, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/idaho">only 3%</a> of <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/VoterReg/turnout.html">registered voters</a> in Idaho went to the Democratic caucuses.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, Democratic turnout rose to 12%, exceeding 10% of registered voters for the first time since 1994. More than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/10/us/elections/results-idaho-president-democrat-primary-election.html">107,000 voters</a> cast a ballot in the Democratic primary, easily eclipsing the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/idaho">23,000 ballots</a> in 2016.</p>
<p>With victories in <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/03/colorado-primary-president-democrats-results/">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/03/04/bernie-sanders-takes/">Utah</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/22/nevada-caucuses-biden-sanders-116719">Nevada</a>, the conventional wisdom heading into the night was that the Mountain West electorate favored Sanders. </p>
<p>As results came in, that proved incorrect. With substantially more voters participating in the primary, it made repeating the electoral landslide of the 2016 caucus more difficult for Sanders. Generally, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/03/2020-elections-caucuses-democrats-primaries-bernie-sanders-1078031">his supporters are more committed to his success</a> and thus more likely to wait in long lines to ensure that the caucus goes for him. In primaries, more casual voters are able to go in, vote and continue on with their day.</p>
<p>While Sanders won <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/idaho">78% of the caucus vote</a> in 2016, 2020 was Biden’s night. Biden <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/10/us/elections/results-idaho-president-democrat-primary-election.html">garnered 49% to Sanders’ 43%</a>, winning 38 counties while Sanders only carried five, with one county tied. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the race for the Democratic nomination narrowed to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, six more states went to the polls on March 10. We asked three scholars to interpret the results.Luke Perry, Professor of Political Science, Utica UniversityKeisha N. Blain, Associate Professor of History, University of PittsburghMatthew May, Senior Research Associate, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1262962019-11-01T21:40:57Z2019-11-01T21:40:57ZMississippi governor’s race taking place under Jim Crow-era rules after judge refuses to block them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299870/original/file-20191101-88378-15n5r7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A lawsuit alleges that the way Mississippi will elect its governor on Tuesday is racist.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit/e9d74964a6ce469bbb033ed69d0eba4d/256/0">AP/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal judge ruled on Nov. 1 that he would not stop Mississippi voters from electing a governor on Tuesday under an old, Jim Crow-era election law that a <a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6102478/Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit.pdf">civil rights lawsuit</a> argues perpetuates “white supremacy” and violates the principle of “one-person, one-vote.” </p>
<p>U.S. District Judge Daniel Jordan <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5beeefdbf407b4c074e45ec6/t/5dbc5e0e74c31f282750e68a/1572625934211/Order.pdf">wrote that he had “grave concern”</a> about the unconstitutionality of part of the law. But with the election nearing on Nov. 5, he ruled that time was too short to issue an injunction altering the state’s voting scheme for statewide officers.</p>
<p>Under the state’s current law, a successful candidate for governor of Mississippi must win an outright majority of the popular vote – and a majority of the state’s 122 House districts. </p>
<p>If no candidate does both, the state House gets to select the next governor, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Article_V,_Mississippi_Constitution#Section_141">regardless of who got the most votes</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-african-american-has-won-statewide-office-in-mississippi-in-129-years-heres-why-118319">No African American has been elected statewide since 1890</a>.</p>
<h2>Similar laws once common</h2>
<p>Four African Americans filed a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6102478-Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit.html">federal civil rights lawsuit</a> in May, asking the court to invalidate the law. Republican legislators in Mississippi defended the law, saying the plaintiffs provide “<a href="https://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/18/hosemann-gunn-say-racial-hostility-in-jim-crow-era-not-reason-to-throw-out-election-provision-today">nothing more than conjecture</a>” that they would be harmed by this election method.</p>
<p>Media coverage of the lawsuit has emphasized, as one story noted, that “no Mississippi candidate who won the most votes for a statewide office has been prevented from taking office because of the other <a href="https://www.apnews.com/3ad297610e314e4a863ebb521b98efd0">requirements</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://sites.northwestern.edu/gcohnpostar/">As a historian of 19th-century voting rights in the U.S.</a>, I believe this analysis ignores the history of anti-democratic gubernatorial election laws.</p>
<p>Mississippi now faces its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/09/03/the-trailer-mississippi-has-a-surprisingly-competitive-gubernatorial-race/5d6d2a46602ff171a5d7338d/">first close gubernatorial election</a> since <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/04/us/tight-governor-s-race-will-be-decided-by-mississippi-house-of-representatives.html">1999</a>. </p>
<p>Candidates are from three parties as well as one independent. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Attorney_General_of_Mississippi">State Attorney General</a> <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_Hood">Jim Hood</a>, a Democrat; <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Lieutenant_Governor_of_Mississippi">Lt. Gov.</a> <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Tate_Reeves">Tate Reeves</a>, a Republican; <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Bob_Hickingbottom">Bob Hickingbottom</a>, Constitution Party; and independent <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/David_Singletary">David Singletary</a> are all competing in the election. </p>
<p>In the 19th century, many states had laws similar to Mississippi’s. They were intended to entrench the rule of the party in power.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder supported the filing of the Mississippi lawsuit, saying ‘count all the votes and the person who gets the greatest number of votes wins.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit/f36cd2804dfb40adbcd61a97a952ce5c/3/0">AP/Seth Wenig</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disenfranchisement by law</h2>
<p>The gubernatorial election law dates to 1890, when it was drafted into Mississippi’s <a href="http://mshistorynow.mdah.state.ms.us/articles/103/index.php?s=extra&id=270">constitution</a> by a nearly <a href="http://mshistorynow.mdah.state.ms.us/articles/103/mississippi-constitution-of-1890">all-white convention</a>. </p>
<p>The Southern Democrats in charge of the convention were intent on <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/grant-kkk/">removing African Americans from politics</a>. The constitution they crafted subjected prospective voters to a literacy test and poll tax – <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=7aM7DwAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=mississippi%201890%20constitution&pg=PR3#v=onepage&q&f=false">effectively disenfranchising nearly all African Americans</a>.</p>
<p>They included the majority vote and state House district provision in the constitution as a backstop to preserve white control of <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/154496/mississippi-quotes-john-roberts-defend-racist-election-law">Mississippi</a>. However, voter suppression and a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/party-affiliation/by/racial-and-ethnic-composition/among/state/mississippi/">racially polarized</a> electorate have produced few competitive elections in Mississippi, ensuring that the backstop has rarely been necessary. </p>
<p>In the 19th century, many states with similar election laws had much more competitive elections. The bad results these laws produced in close contests demonstrate the worst-case possibilities of Mississippi’s system.</p>
<h2>The crowbar governor</h2>
<p>These anti-majoritarian laws in governors’ races caused what legal scholar <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=h9XiCgAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=ballot%20battles%20edward%20foley&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false">Edward B. Foley</a> termed “a veritable epidemic” of crises during the Gilded Age.</p>
<p>In West Virginia (1888), Rhode Island (1893) and Tennessee (1894), partisan legislatures overruled the voters to install governors in office who had failed to win the most votes. </p>
<p>The 1890 drama in <a href="https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-xpm-2002-11-03-0211032496-story.html">Connecticut</a> provides the worst example of these laws in action.</p>
<p>Democratic candidates running for governor won the most votes in every Connecticut election during the 1880s. But with multiple parties running, they never captured a majority. The legislature, gerrymandered to favor the Republicans, installed their candidates in office <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Connecticut">four out of five</a> times, even though they never even won a plurality. </p>
<p>In 1890, the Connecticut legislature was evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. That year’s gubernatorial election was thrown to the legislature. Deadlock ensued. In a three-way race, where the Democrat had won nearly <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1890-11-07/ed-1/seq-4/">4,000 more votes than his Republican opponent</a>, Republicans in the state Senate refused to seat him.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Morgan G. Bulkeley, governor of Connecticut, stayed on after his term ended when the legislature was deadlocked on the choice of governor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=b001044">U.S. Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though the Democrats held the moral high ground, the Republicans had the election law on their side. With the stalemate, the sitting Republican governor, <a href="https://museumofcthistory.org/2015/08/morgan-gardner-bulkeley/">Morgan G. Bulkeley</a> simply stayed in office for two more years.</p>
<p>While Bulkeley’s supporters commended him for stepping in to <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn82015483/1891-01-10/ed-1/seq-2/">“hold the fort,”</a> his unelected tenure provoked a crisis of legitimacy that ground state government to a halt. </p>
<p>When the legislature <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn82015483/1891-04-03/ed-1/seq-2/">refused to appropriate funds</a> for the state budget, Bulkeley borrowed US$300,000 ($8.3 million today) from his family’s company – Aetna Life Insurance – to pay for state <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-05-09/ed-1/seq-4/">operations</a>. Neighboring states refused to acknowledge the <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-24/ed-1/seq-4/">legality</a> of <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-25/ed-1/seq-4/">arrest warrants</a> he issued. At one point, the Democrats changed the locks on the governor’s office and Bulkeley popped them off with a <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-03-21/ed-1/seq-4/">crowbar</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-25/ed-1/seq-4/">“Nothing short of a revolution,”</a> said the disgusted governor of New York, could end the tyranny of the minority in Connecticut. </p>
<p>But Bulkeley’s methods had damaged the Republican Party’s reputation. In the regularly scheduled 1892 election, the Democrat who had won the most votes in 1890, <a href="https://www.nga.org/governor/luzon-burritt-morris/">Luzon B. Morris</a>, won an outright majority and became governor.</p>
<h2>Bad track record</h2>
<p>If the winner of the most votes in the Mississippi gubernatorial election does not also win the majority of House districts, it could set off a crisis of legitimacy in Mississippi similar to the one that took place in Connecticut in 1890.</p>
<p>If that happens <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5beeefdbf407b4c074e45ec6/t/5dbc5e0e74c31f282750e68a/1572625934211/Order.pdf">the case could return to court</a> for an expedited hearing that could overturn the challenged provision. </p>
<p>Laws that place anti-democratic restrictions on the popular vote have a bad track record in competitive elections. At best they add unnecessary complexity and instability to what should be a simple system.</p>
<p>At worst they undermine the principle of popular rule, damage voters’ faith in democracy and provoke crises of legitimacy. The Mississippi civil rights lawsuit continues after the election. If it succeeds, it will mark a repudiation of Mississippi’s legacy of racial disfranchisement.</p>
<p>If it does not succeed, then Mississippi’s legislature and governor might want to consider Connecticut’s example.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mississippi-african-american-voters-sue-over-election-law-rooted-in-the-states-racist-past-123077">an article</a> that originally ran on Sept. 23, 2019.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gideon Cohn-Postar is a Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.</span></em></p>A Mississippi law that allegedly makes it ‘more difficult for African-
American-preferred candidates to win elections’ will still be in place when voters choose a new governor Tuesday.Gideon Cohn-Postar, Graduate Student in History, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.