tag:theconversation.com,2011:/nz/topics/oilsands-48624/articlesOilsands – The Conversation2023-10-31T20:01:45Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157702023-10-31T20:01:45Z2023-10-31T20:01:45ZHow to ensure Alberta’s oil and gas workers have jobs during the energy transition<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-to-ensure-albertas-oil-and-gas-workers-have-jobs-during-the-energy-transition" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Retraining Alberta’s oil and gas workers for the solar industry costs far less than you think. The results of our new study clearly show that a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">rapid transition to sustainable energy production is feasible</a>, as costs of retraining oil and gas workers are far from prohibitive.</p>
<h2>Probable futures</h2>
<p>The oil and gas industry has played a crucial part in <a href="http://www.revparl.ca/english/issue.asp?art=807&param=129">Alberta’s political structure</a> for decades. Alberta contains about 97 per cent of all oil stores in Canada, <a href="https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/newstop-ten-countries-with-worlds-largest-oil-reserves-5793487/">which ranks third</a> globally for oil and gas exports.</p>
<p>Over 20 per cent of the GDP and 5.9 per cent of all employment in Alberta is <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2021007/article/00003-eng.htm">tied to the oil and gas industry</a>, which employs over <a href="https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/home">35,000 people</a>. </p>
<p>However, many factors — including increasing electrification, reduction in renewable energy costs and climate policy — are aligning to annihilate Alberta’s traditional fossil-fuel focused energy industry. This raises a real concern for <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/10/15/news/canadian-fossil-fuel-jobs-about-be-cut-half-its-time-talk-about-just-transition">oil and gas workers’ jobs in the near future</a>. </p>
<h2>A confluence of events</h2>
<p>Purchases of electric vehicles (EVs) are already up 35 per cent this year after a record year, and <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/demand-for-electric-cars-is-booming-with-sales-expected-to-leap-35-this-year-after-a-record-breaking-2022">predicted to increase</a>. This indicates that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-13/peak-oil-demand-is-coming-fast-for-transportation#xj4y7vzkg">oil-based transportation is quickly coming to an end</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to lower costs of ownership, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2015.2487514">EVs can also offer electric grid support</a> by acting like mobile batteries that can help overcome the renewable energy intermittency challenge by storing wind and solar electricity for when they are needed. In addition, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2020.102050">conventional electric storage</a> <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abb216/meta">reduces electricity costs</a> while servicing the grid with intermittent generators. </p>
<p>These technologies not only help expand opportunities for renewable energy technologies, but they also electrify transportation, which directly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105086">undermines the market for the oil industry</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, the market for the gas industry is challenged by the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101764">use of electric-powered heat pumps</a>. In North America, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040834">solar-powered heat pumps have already become economically viable</a>. And for the first time in history <a href="https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Featured-Stories/US-Heat-Pump-Sales">heat pump sales outperformed conventional natural gas furnaces in the United States</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/solar-energy-cheapest-in-history-iea-renewables-climate-change/">solar electricity is now the cheapest electricity to produce</a> — and although gas-fired electricity is better for the environment and more economic than coal, <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/gas-cant-compete-with-wind-solar-and-storage-even-in-worlds-biggest-market/">gas simply cannot compete</a> with modern solar technologies. </p>
<h2>Competition in Alberta</h2>
<p>Alberta allows <a href="https://www.aeso.ca/aeso/understanding-electricity-in-alberta/continuing-education/guide-to-understanding-albertas-electricity-market/">electricity generators to sell electricity to the grid in a free market set-up</a>. When the “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/pembina-institute-report-renewable-projects-affected-by-pause-moratorium-1.6946440">pause</a>” on renewable development in Alberta is lifted, it will create a massive solar boom. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/StvW1uJcGgc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In August 2023, the Alberta government paused the approval of new renewable energy projects in response to concerns about developing wind and solar projects on agricultural land.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Currently, there is a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9918212/alberta-renewable-energy-development-pause-pembina/">backlog of over $30 billion of hugely profitable solar projects</a> in Alberta, poising the province for a historic surge in super-cheap solar power. Simultaneously, the costs for carbon emissions are becoming even more clear <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.058">in terms of money</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en16166074">human deaths</a>. This is only going to make oil and gas more expensive, whether from likely increased costs in carbon-regulated emissions or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.025">trillions in carbon emissions liabilities</a>. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/859123/most-polluting-oil-types-worldwide/">oil sands are the most polluting type of oil produced in the world today</a> — finding ways to feasibly phase them out is a key climate priority. If Canada makes good on its <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">net zero by 2050 promise</a> — essentially cutting all fossil fuel use — it is pretty clear that Alberta’s oil and gas workers will no longer have jobs. </p>
<h2>Retraining for solar</h2>
<p>An approach to keeping livelihoods is to retrain oil and gas workers for the solar industry, where there are lots of desperately needed jobs.</p>
<p>In the U.S., similar efforts are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.016">underway to retrain the 50,000 workers in the coal industry</a> to join the more than 250,000 solar workers.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I completed a study on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">exactly what that would cost</a>. Because many jobs in the solar industry require similar skill sets and training as general construction work, many oil and gas workers would be able to transfer fields with no additional training required. </p>
<p>We used the <a href="https://irecusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/National-Solar-Jobs-Census-2020-FINAL.pdf">U.S. Solar Census</a> data to examine distributions of workers that would keep the same type of work in the oil and gas industry of Alberta. </p>
<p>We put ourselves — figuratively — into the workboots of the oil workers to future-proof their careers. When our oil worker skills did not align directly with a position type in the solar field, workers were assigned one of a few different types of positions that would require the least retraining possible.</p>
<p>Multiple different retraining options were outlined — universities, colleges and online courses currently available in Alberta — to provide cost estimates for each different type of retraining: trades certification, two-year college degree, four-year university degree, graduate degree.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two workers on a roof installing panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many jobs in the solar industry require similar skill sets and training as general construction work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Retraining costs</h2>
<p>We found the total costs for retraining all oil sands workers in Alberta for the solar industry ranges between $91.5 and $276.2 million.
In context, this is a small amount of money for the energy industry — only <a href="https://ccli.ubc.ca/resource/fossil-fuel-subsidies-in-canada-governance-implications-in-the-net-zero-transition/">two to six per cent of federal, provincial and territorial oil and gas subsidies for a single year</a> would need to be reallocated to provide oil and gas workers with a new career of approximately equivalent pay.</p>
<p>Currently, Canada spends more than <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/school-of-public-policy-homeless-services-study-1.4970251">$30 billion annually to fund social services for the homeless population</a>. It makes more sense to retrain workers whose jobs are about to evaporate. </p>
<p>The costs to retrain oil and gas workers could be funded in many ways. For example, a Canadian CEO in the oil and gas sector could agree to reduce his annual salary to $500,000 and donate the rest for five years. That would be enough to retrain <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">all of Alberta’s oil and gas workers</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/iea-report-world-energy-outlook-2023-1.7005194">fossil fuels peaking soon</a>, companies could also prioritize retraining for their workers as they transition <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bakx-oilsands-renewables-enbridge-1.5980380">to carbon-free energy themselves</a>.</p>
<p>Provincial and federal governments could also provide financial incentives or compensation for the costs of retraining. And finally, workers who notice the writing on the wall could start retraining at their own expense. </p>
<p>In the end, while there are legitimate reasons to fear for long-term employment in Canada’s oil and gas sector, the resources needed to retrain the workers for the solar industry can be easily made available for this energy transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce has received research funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Defense, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). He is a founding member of Agrivoltaics Canada.</span></em></p>If Alberta prepares to transition from oil and gas to solar energy, the workforce will need retraining. New research shows that this will cost less than expected.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071952023-06-15T12:29:52Z2023-06-15T12:29:52ZWill Danielle Smith veer back to the right and towards Alberta separatism?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532000/original/file-20230614-18-8a4srx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3718%2C2766&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks to delegates at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Alta., on June 13, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With a fresh and workable majority, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is facing the choice of conforming to her moderate election stance or pushing the strategies of various quasi-separatist groups like <a href="https://www.takingbackalberta.ca/">Take Back Alberta</a> and <a href="https://www.projectconfederation.ca/">Project Confederation</a>. </p>
<p>If she opts to move from the centre to the far right again, controversies involving the federal government, government workers and environmentalists will ensue.</p>
<p>As a political scientist, former Alberta public servant, financial institution executive and university administrator and researcher, I have been watching politics in Alberta for more than 40 years. </p>
<p>At the present time, political pundits are contemplating how Smith, with a fresh mandate from <a href="https://officialresults.elections.ab.ca/orResultsPGE.cfm?EventId=101">52.5 per cent of the population</a>, will perform as premier in the months and years ahead.</p>
<p>As Alberta election day approached in May, <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/david-staples-political-makeover-2023-can-danielle-smith-pull-off-her-about-face">some commentators</a> began to suggest Smith was not only steering a centrist course during the election, <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/braid-danielle-smith-sensible-government">but would do so afterwards</a>.</p>
<p>But is that truly the case?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-danielle-smiths-remarkable-comeback-means-for-canada-206588">What Danielle Smith's remarkable comeback means for Canada</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Alberta’s economy</h2>
<p>Alberta’s place in the Canadian federation is a critical issue because it has a <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610022201&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.1&pickMembers%5B1%5D=2.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2017&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=20170101%2C20210101">disproportionate share of Canada’s exports</a> at 22 per cent. </p>
<p>Without Alberta’s energy exports, Canada’s terms of trade would turn dramatically negative and force a drastic <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202203_01%7Ea3fe116ba1.en.html">downward change in Canada’s standard of living</a>. Negative effects would show up with declining purchase power for Canadians and significantly higher costs of imported goods and services, and the machinery and equipment governments, businesses and corporations rely upon.</p>
<p>Statistics Canada reports that from 1997 to 2021, Canada ran a <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610022201&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.1&pickMembers%5B1%5D=2.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=1997&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=19970101%2C20210101">$1.05 trillion trade surplus with the rest of the world</a>. During that same period, Alberta alone <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610022201&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.10&pickMembers%5B1%5D=2.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=1997&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=19970101%2C20210101">ran a trade surplus of $1.02 trillion</a> with the rest of the world. </p>
<p>This economic reality is an ace in the hole for Alberta’s government. This is also a financial reality decision-makers in Ottawa’s departments of Finance, Environment and Climate Change, and Natural Resources are well aware of.</p>
<p>Without Alberta, Canada would incur large trade deficits and the Canadian dollar would drop like a stone. Corporate and income tax revenue to Ottawa would fall by roughly 15 to 20 per cent. </p>
<p>To reiterate, Alberta’s withdrawal from the Canadian federation would cause a huge drop in Canadians’ standard of living. This has serious implications for Canada’s system of fiscal transfers, including equalization. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A rainbow ends near a working pumpjack." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531474/original/file-20230612-206189-sgqp5h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531474/original/file-20230612-206189-sgqp5h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531474/original/file-20230612-206189-sgqp5h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531474/original/file-20230612-206189-sgqp5h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531474/original/file-20230612-206189-sgqp5h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531474/original/file-20230612-206189-sgqp5h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531474/original/file-20230612-206189-sgqp5h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A pumpjack draws out oil and gas from a well head as a rainbow shines down on it near Calgary, in May 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>American control</h2>
<p>Unlike Québec, where provincially built institutions like <a href="https://www.cdpq.com/en/about-us">Caisse de Depot</a> nurtured a francophone business class, Alberta’s key industries are <a href="https://abpolecon.ca/2022/09/07/who-owns-the-big-four/">controlled by American institutional investors</a>. Uncertainty about how Ottawa will meet its emission reduction commitments in the face of sovereigntist opposition from Alberta is a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-policy-uncertainty-and-investment-risk">big concern for those investors</a>. </p>
<p>This concern has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bakx-alberta-sovereignty-act-investment-1.6669945">reduced capital investment in the conventional oil and gas and oilsands sectors</a>. That has several implications. </p>
<p>First, capital investment in the oil and gas industry drives Alberta’s economy and creates construction and spin-off jobs. </p>
<p>Second, expanding production means more revenue for the provincial government. </p>
<p>Third, the large oilsands producers, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oil-gas-alberta-revenues-charles-st-arnaud-arc-energy-1.6647652">instead of reinvesting in their companies</a>, are raising dividends and initiating share buybacks that go mainly into foreign hands. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1596626487180169216"}"></div></p>
<h2>Confrontation with Ottawa</h2>
<p>Given Smith’s strong links to the <a href="https://www.freealbertastrategy.com/">Free Alberta Strategy,</a> her endorsement of the so-called Freedom Convoy and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/2023/05/30/journalist-to-premier-the-political-journey-of-alberta-premier-danielle-smith.html">her admiration of former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher and writer Ayn Rand</a>, we can anticipate a tumultuous legislative session this fall. </p>
<p>Three themes will likely be front and centre — confrontation with Ottawa, building economic and institutional fences around the province and the shrinking of the Alberta government through selective privatizations.</p>
<p>Smith is closely aligned with <a href="https://www.facebook.com/RobAndersonUnfiltered/">Rob Anderson</a>, one of the principle authors of the Free Alberta Strategy. The group closely co-ordinates with <a href="https://www.projectconfederation.ca/">Project Confederation</a> and the <a href="https://www.albertainstitute.ca/">Alberta Institute</a>, whose website design and separatist leanings are similar. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1666591274240196608"}"></div></p>
<p>In addition to these supposedly non-partisan advocacy groups, there is <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/what-is-take-back-alberta">Take Back Alberta, a grassroots movement that was instrumental in ousting former premier Jason Kenney</a> and now has a co-ordinated voice in the UCP executive. </p>
<p>Smith’s first budget will probably include efforts to create an Alberta Revenue Agency and possibly a provincial police or sheriffs’ force. </p>
<p>To create more financial independence, watch for measures involving creating some type of <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-free-alberta-strategy-gets-wrong-about-canadas-banking-system-197887">Alberta bank-like institution</a> and widening the powers and changing the governance levers of two provincial financial institutions — ATB Financial and the Alberta Investment Management Corporation.</p>
<h2>Starving the Alberta government</h2>
<p>Another central election promise was to amend the <a href="https://kings-printer.alberta.ca/570.cfm?frm_isbn=9780779818860&search_by=link">Alberta Taxation Protection Act</a> that requires a referendum to institute a sales tax. The amendments will add personal tax and corporate income tax increases to the list requiring a referendum. </p>
<p>This amounts to creating an institutional framework that will starve the Alberta government.</p>
<p>Efforts to shrink the size of government may include the <a href="https://abpolecon.ca/2021/02/01/are-the-ucp-good-fiscal-managers/">privatization of Alberta’s land titles office </a>, which has been <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/delays-alberta-land-titles-office-1.6451554">experiencing horrendous backlogs for years</a>.</p>
<p>By far the most important front will be Smith’s war on Ottawa.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a burgundy suit shakes hands with a bearded man. Both smile at the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531478/original/file-20230612-151816-ko7wvu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Minister of Energy and Minerals Brian Jean stand together during the swearing in of her cabinet.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Smith has <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/premier-cabinet.aspx">again taken responsibility for intergovernmental relations</a>. <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/minister-of-energy-and-minerals.aspx">Brian Jean</a>, a former Wildrose leader, federal MP and two-time failed UCP leadership candidate, has been named energy and minerals minister. He represents the oilsands capital of the world, Fort McMurray, and ran on an “Alberta First” leadership platform.</p>
<p>Smith and her cabinet are widely anticipating federal emission rules to be released over the next six months. An earlier federal reduction plan earned the wrath of both the UCP and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8719457/alberta-reactions-federal-2030-emissions-reduction-plan/">NDP Leader Rachel Notley</a>. But any credible emissions reduction plans must target the oil and gas sector, and particularly the oilsands.</p>
<h2>Compromise?</h2>
<p>There appears to be room for compromise and the federal Liberals have already committed billions of dollars in <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/consultations/2021/investment-tax-credit-carbon-capture-utilization-storage.html">tax credits to the oil and gas sector for carbon capture and storage</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/volkswagen-subsidies-stthomas-1.6816824">the Liberals and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives</a> have offered billions to promote electric vehicles.</p>
<p>How fiscally responsible governments can undertake these extraordinary measures of fiscal assistance to entities controlled in the U.S. or Europe is extraordinary. </p>
<p>It’s highly doubtful these measures will assist in strengthening or diversifying Canada’s increasingly branch plant economies. </p>
<p>In Smith’s Alberta, Albertans and Canadians are facing what some have termed a <a href="https://abpolecon.ca/2020/11/09/moment-of-truth-book-review-and-opinion/">“moment of truth</a>.” There is little doubt that Smith will push aggressively on an agenda that confronts Ottawa. With Alberta separatists inside the tent of Alberta’s UCP, 2023 will be a pivotal year for Canada’s Confederation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert L. Ascah is affiliated with Alberta's NDP</span></em></p>Newly elected Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is likely to chart a course forward that involves brawls with Ottawa. Here’s what that means for Canadian Confederation.Robert L. Ascah, Research Fellow, Public Economics, The Parkland Institute, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1994672023-02-08T20:09:25Z2023-02-08T20:09:25ZHow to win over Alberta on the ‘just transition’ to a low-carbon energy sector<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508703/original/file-20230207-17-d057td.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2179&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A pumpjack draws oil from underneath a canola field as a haze of wildfire smoke hangs in the air near Cremona, Alta., in July 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilkinson-just-transition-atlantic-electricity-1.6701409">Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson recently announced that “just transition” legislation is forthcoming</a> that will help Canadian oil and gas workers move into jobs in the low-carbon energy sector. </p>
<p>The announcement set off a firestorm in Alberta as Premier Danielle Smith said: “<a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/he-has-no-business-dictating-to-us-alberta-premier-rails-against-just-transition-1.6236507">It’s very clear what they have in mind for us is devastating. They want to shut down a quarter of our economy</a>.” </p>
<p>Rachel Notley, the province’s official opposition leader, suggested the federal government should <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-ndp-leader-wants-ottawa-to-drop-just-transition-bill-1.6718678">just take the legislation “…and basically get rid of it.”</a></p>
<p>Just transition is an important element of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/ensuring-workers-and-communities-prosper-as-we-move-to-net-zero/">Liberal party national climate policy</a> agenda. It’s in line with the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, which Canada signed along with 193 other countries. </p>
<p>The agreement considers “the imperatives of a just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs in accordance with nationally defined development priorities.” That means Canada’s national plan to address climate change and transition towards a decarbonized economy must consider and support workers.</p>
<h2>Making policy lemonade out of lemons</h2>
<p>Needless to say, the plan has had an inauspicious start, even though the details have yet to be revealed. </p>
<p>So how can the federal government salvage its just transition agenda and make policy lemonade out of the political lemon that is its relationship with Alberta?</p>
<p>It could be argued that Alberta, with its large oil and gas industry, is distinct from other provinces and territories and is unlikely to support any plan for a just transition. </p>
<p>But in the past seven years, the federal government has been able to work with provinces and territories, including Alberta, using three strategies that can increase the chances of bringing the province on board with the just transition plan.</p>
<h2>3 ways to win support</h2>
<p>First, the federal government has allowed substantial flexibility in local policy design. For example, provinces could accept a federal carbon pricing policy or develop their own equivalent policy, using a tax or a cap-and-trade system. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ucp-carbon-tax-fact-check-1.5083348">Alberta’s United Conservative Party government has fought the carbon price on fuel tooth and nail</a>, it has quietly worked with the federal government on a pricing system for industry. <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/alberta.html">Even when the UCP government changed the provincial system</a>, upon coming to power, the federal government recognized its equivalency. </p>
<p>Similar flexibility and attention to local circumstances will be required if the just transition is to be politically accepted in Alberta. Simply including the province in a broader national transition strategy isn’t sufficient.</p>
<p>Second, the federal government offered trade-offs in return for provincial support. In Alberta under Notley and the NDP, provincial support for federal climate policies <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trans-mountain-federal-court-appeals-1.4804495">was contingent on approval of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project</a>, despite its greenhouse gas emission (GHG) footprints and the opposition of environmental groups.</p>
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<img alt="A blonde woman in a white hard hat stands in front of large oil transportation pipes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rachel Notley speaks to media during a tour of Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement project in Hardisty, Alta., when she was premier in August 2017. She was in the midst of a cross-country speaking tour on the importance of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The federal government can look for additional trade-offs, particularly if Notley wins the provincial election in May. Potential options include increased support for the clean-up of abandoned oil and gas wells, investments in the province’s hydrogen industry and increasing financial incentives for carbon capture, use and storage technology.</p>
<p>Finally, the just transition plan itself must present a financial carrot to accompany the stick of a cap on GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector, which was announced last year. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-growing-cost-to-clean-up-abandoned-and-orphaned-wells-143673">The growing cost to clean up abandoned and orphaned wells</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Federal enticements</h2>
<p>The federal government has provided funding, financial incentives and investments to entice provinces and territories to back national policy goals and help them meet federal regulatory requirements. </p>
<p>But historically, there has been a gap between what Alberta deems to be fair and necessary support for its industry and what the federal government is willing to shell out. The just transition is an opportunity to bridge this gap in expectations. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/fes-eea/2022/report-rapport/chap2-en.html">The federal government’s fall 2022 economic update planned for $250 million for skills training</a> for jobs in low-carbon energy industries. However, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/liberals-unveil-2021-election-platform-promising-total-of-78-billion-for-post-pandemic-rebuild-1.5569268?cache=hshngyycpze">the $2-billion figure floated in the federal Liberals’ 2021 election platform</a> is likely closer to the mark. </p>
<p>In addition, the support of industry was key to the viability of <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/alberta-s-climate-leadership-plan-progressive-climate-policy">Notley’s provincial Climate Leadership Plan</a>. The federal government should take advantage of the reality that many in the oil and gas industry desire and accept the need for a transition to sustainable jobs.</p>
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<img alt="A sign says Mountains not Mines next to a road leading to a mountain range." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A sign opposing coal development near Longview, Alta., in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The path forward</h2>
<p>Is the just transition plan dead on arrival or is there a path to salvaging this key component of national climate policy? </p>
<p>As is often the case with public policy, the devil will be in the details. </p>
<p>As with any climate policy in Canada, considering and supporting local, economic and social realities are crucial to making the plan politically justifiable in Alberta. Doing so will also help the policy achieve equity and justice. </p>
<p>The stakes are high, and Canada and Alberta cannot afford to see the plan fail. <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1098662">The frequency and intensity of natural disasters worldwide</a> in the past few years, and a shrinking market for fossil fuels, have already spurred the transition.</p>
<p>Canada has no choice but to adapt its energy sources and industries. </p>
<p>As the 2022 <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/the-inflation-reduction-act-heres-whats-in-it">Inflation Reduction Act</a> in the United States shows, other countries have started to take this path. If Canada doesn’t plan for it, the inevitable transition will be much more disruptive — and much less just.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Boyd receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marielle Papin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada has no choice but to adapt its energy sources and industries in a ‘just transition.’ If it doesn’t, the inevitable transition will be much more disruptive — and much less just.Brendan Boyd, Assistant Professor, Department of Anthropology, Economics and Political Science, MacEwan UniversityMarielle Papin, Assistant Professor in Political Science, MacEwan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948892022-12-01T18:55:29Z2022-12-01T18:55:29ZDespite soaring profits, oil companies are not paying enough for their environmental damage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498076/original/file-20221129-24-gs4o1p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C35%2C3694%2C2485&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A pumpjack draws out oil and gas from a well head near Calgary in October 2022. There are thousands of inactive oil and gas wells in the province that have not been properly decommissioned.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/despite-soaring-profits--oil-companies-are-not-paying-enough-for-their-environmental-damage" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>At the end of the third quarter reporting season in October, the Big Four oilsands producers continued to report record profit levels. Collectively, <a href="https://www.cenovus.com/News-and-Stories/News-releases/2022/2546247">Cenovus</a>, <a href="https://investingnews.com/canadian-natural-resources-limited-announces-2022-third-quarter-results/">CNRL</a>, <a href="https://news.imperialoil.ca/news-releases/news-releases/2022/Imperial-announces-third-quarter-2022-financial-and-operating-results/default.aspx">Imperial Oil</a> and <a href="https://sustainability-prd-cdn.suncor.com/-/media/project/suncor/files/news-releases/2022/2022-11-02-news-release-earnings-q3-2022-en.pdf?modified=20221103001118">Suncor</a> earned $5.8 billion in the third quarter and $23.1 billion in the first nine months of 2022. The average return on capital during the period was almost 25 per cent. </p>
<p>The only minor hiccup was <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9246922/suncor-3q-report-net-loss-fort-hills-writedown/">Suncor’s reported loss</a> — primarily due to a <a href="https://sustainability-prd-cdn.suncor.com/-/media/project/suncor/files/news-releases/2022/2022-11-02-news-release-earnings-q3-2022-en.pdf">non-cash impairment charge of $3.4 billion</a> against its Fort Hills assets. Despite the write-down, Suncor still <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9229869/suncor-teck-deal-fort-hills-oilsands/">spent $1 billion buying Teck Resources’ stake in the Fort Hills oilsands project</a>.</p>
<p>However, apart from Suncor’s purchase, these companies are not reinvesting in their core businesses. This cash bonanza has implications for Canadian consumers, government taxation and royalty policies and environmental policy.</p>
<h2>Consumers left in the lurch</h2>
<p>Unlike bank prime lending rates <a href="https://wowa.ca/banks/prime-rates-canada">that change every six weeks or so</a>, Canadians heavily dependent on their gas-motored cars or trucks face difficult choices in balancing their budgets with higher housing costs.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000701&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.1&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2020&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=20200101%2C20210101">Statistics Canada</a>, housing accounts for more than 30 per cent of a household’s expenses, and transportation accounts for 16 per cent. </p>
<p><a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221116/dq221116a-eng.htm">Year-over-year inflation for gasoline in October 2022 was 17.8 per cent</a>. The homeowners’ replacement cost index, a proxy for the price of new homes, increased by 6.9 per cent. Mortgage interest costs <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/how-the-relationship-between-interest-rate-hikes-and-inflation-plays-out-in-canada-1.6155914">increased 11.4 per cent over last year</a> — the highest increase since February 1991.</p>
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<img alt="A person fuels up their car at an Esso gas station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498071/original/file-20221129-24-6psrvz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498071/original/file-20221129-24-6psrvz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498071/original/file-20221129-24-6psrvz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498071/original/file-20221129-24-6psrvz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498071/original/file-20221129-24-6psrvz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498071/original/file-20221129-24-6psrvz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498071/original/file-20221129-24-6psrvz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A motorist fuels up a vehicle at an Esso gas station after the price of a litre of regular gasoline reached a new high of $2.40 in Vancouver in October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Canadians who have personal vehicles, those who rely on natural gas for heating and people who have mortgages are under enormous strain. <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/07/01/ontario-gas-fuel-tax-cut-in-effect/">Ontario</a> and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-danielle-smith-inflation-plan/">Alberta</a> have reduced gasoline taxes, but these are short-term political measures that support the fossil fuel industry by maintaining demand for gas and diesel. </p>
<p>The wait times for electric vehicles is up to one year <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/10/29/want-to-buy-an-electric-vehicle-in-toronto-good-luck-star-investigation-finds-wait-times-of-up-to-a-year.html">in Toronto</a> and well into 2024 for <a href="https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/11/11/canada-electric-car-delays/">buyers in Vancouver</a>.</p>
<p>Oilsands shareholders, who are mostly foreigners, are enjoying huge profits while consumers are bearing the brunt of rising energy prices. </p>
<p>The majority of the shares <a href="http://abpolecon.ca/2022/09/07/who-owns-the-big-four/">for Canada’s biggest oil companies are held by institutional investors</a>. These Canadian institutional investors, like TD Investment Management, hold anywhere from a mere three per cent of the shares of Imperial, to nearly 20 per cent of CNRL’s shares.</p>
<h2>Big Oil isn’t reinvesting profits</h2>
<p>During the first nine months of 2022, $6.7 billion was paid out in dividends, with <a href="https://investingnews.com/canadian-natural-resources-limited-announces-2022-third-quarter-results/">nearly two-thirds by CNRL</a>. During the same period, $15.6 billion shares were repurchased. These share buybacks reward shareholders because reducing the shares outstanding means higher earnings per share for shareholders.</p>
<p>These buybacks also signal to the market that the company’s board and management feel these purchases are the best way to manage capital and cash flow. Significantly it also means that the company is not investing to either increase or sustain operating cash flow. </p>
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<img alt="A high angle shot of a building that says Suncor Energy Centre on it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498068/original/file-20221129-9456-m120p3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498068/original/file-20221129-9456-m120p3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498068/original/file-20221129-9456-m120p3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498068/original/file-20221129-9456-m120p3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498068/original/file-20221129-9456-m120p3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498068/original/file-20221129-9456-m120p3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498068/original/file-20221129-9456-m120p3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Despite Suncor’s net loss in the third reporting quarter, it still bought out Teck Resources’ stake in the Fort Hills oilsands project for approximately $1 billion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In addition to share buybacks and dividends, Cenovus, CNRL, Imperial Oil and Suncor have collectively repaid $10 billion in debt. Based on their financial statements, I estimate $32.5 billion of available cash flow was not reinvested in the business. In fact, during 2022, all four companies’ depreciation, depletion, and amortization — which measures the non-cash costs of assets aging — exceeded capital investment by about $1.5 billion.</p>
<p>According to an <a href="https://arcenergyinst.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/221115-Energy-Charts.pdf">ARC Energy Research Institute report</a>, in 2015, the Canadian industry’s after-tax cash flow was $30 billion and $55 billion was reinvested in conventional and bitumen production. In 2022, with an estimated after-tax cash flow of $152 billion, ARC Energy Research Institute estimates that only $32 billion and $10 billion will be reinvested in conventional and bitumen production, respectively.</p>
<h2>Governments are benefiting</h2>
<p>The federal and Alberta governments are enjoying a bonanza due to higher taxes on profits and royalties. I estimate the Big Four paid about $15.2 billion in royalties to provincial governments so far this year.</p>
<p><a href="http://abpolecon.ca/2022/09/02/is-oil-sands-consolidation-a-threat-to-alberta-democracy/">I have estimated that these four companies</a> will be responsible for at least a quarter of Alberta’s own source revenue (excluding federal transfers) this fiscal year. Based on financial statements from each oil company, I estimate their taxes, as a per cent of net income for the period, run from 13 per cent for Suncor (due to its write-downs) to 36 per cent for Cenovus.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-four-oilsands-companies-influence-threatens-alberta-democracy-argues-political-scientist-188567">The Big Four oilsands companies' influence threatens Alberta democracy, argues political scientist</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<hr>
<p>Some of the CEOs of the Big Four have not been shy at pointing out how much tax and royalties they are paying to governments. <a href="https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2022/11/4/canadian-natural-touts-its-economic-contribution-a/">CNRL president Tim McKay</a> and the leaders of Cenovus and Imperial Oil have also stressed the size of their companies’ contributions to government coffers. </p>
<p>The Alberta treasury’s dependence on the royalties and taxes from only four companies present a major problem, as identified by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith last year in a <a href="https://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/AF16_AB-Key-Challenges_Smith.pdf">paper for the School of Public Policy</a> when she was <a href="https://albertaenterprisegroup.com/2021/04/23/press-release-aeg-appoints-danielle-smith-president/">head of the Alberta Enterprise Group</a>. It will be interesting to see how Smith approaches this problem in next February’s budget. </p>
<h2>Environmental liabilities</h2>
<p>While the oilsands industry divests, it hopes to have federal taxpayers — and possibly those in Alberta — pay the cost of <a href="https://www.bennettjones.com/Blogs-Section/Canadian-Budget-Proposes-New-Investment-Tax-Credit-For-Carbon-Capture-Utilization-and-Storage">subsidizing carbon capture and underground storage</a>. This capital investment, now promised by the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-oil-sands-net-zero-projects/">Pathways Alliance to invest $24 billion</a>, remains the industry’s sole hope of continuing to operate past 2030.</p>
<p>At the same time, the industry has booked $10.6 billion in decommissioning liabilities for oil and gas wells, pipelines and facilities. There are <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/oil-and-gas-liabilities-management.aspx">thousands of abandoned oil wells and decommissioned pipelines</a> in Alberta alone. </p>
<p>However, annual expenditures by the Big Four to address environmental liabilities run less than $1 billion and are not separately recorded in the statement of expenses. There is a clear gap between the costs of environmental damage done by these companies and the amount they are required to mitigate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A close-up shot of a man in a suit and glasses speaking into a microphone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498072/original/file-20221129-14-blhiqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498072/original/file-20221129-14-blhiqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498072/original/file-20221129-14-blhiqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498072/original/file-20221129-14-blhiqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498072/original/file-20221129-14-blhiqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498072/original/file-20221129-14-blhiqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498072/original/file-20221129-14-blhiqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alberta Auditor General Doug Wylie speaks about the findings from an independent investigation related to the International Centre of Regulatory Excellence at the Alberta Energy Regulator in Edmonton in October 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.oag.ab.ca/news/oag-news-release-june-2021-reports/">a June 2021 news release from Alberta’s auditor general</a>:
“After six years of analysis, the department has not decided if and how the security calculation should change.”</p>
<p>The auditor general <a href="https://www.oag.ab.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/oag-aep-aer-trans-env-liabilites-fs-june-2021-report.pdf">also found a lack of clarity between the Department of Energy and the Alberta Energy Regulator</a>. The Alberta government reportedly “has not adopted a consistent ranking system for contaminated sites to determine which are a priority to clean up.”</p>
<p>The Alberta government has failed to ensure environmental liabilities are adequately accounted for and that progress is being made to <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/oilsands-tailings-ponds-growth/">address the province’s massive tailings ponds made up of byproducts from oilsands mining</a>. Incredibly, when asked about the oil industry’s record cash flows and remediation liabilities, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8254763/alberta-oil-price-spike-abandoned-well-cleanup/">former energy minister Sonya Savage stated</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The current spike in oil prices isn’t enough reason to require the industry to spend more on cleaning up the tens of thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells in the province.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a recent <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-alberta-oil-economic-boom/"><em>Globe and Mail</em> article</a> pointed out, Alberta’s present good fortune is a mirage because the industry is not re-investing. This has serious ramifications for Alberta’s rural economy, and the Fort McMurray region in particular. </p>
<p>The main driver in Alberta’s economy over the past two decades has been the oilsands industry — <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-provincial-sales-tax-is-the-solution-to-albertas-fiscal-roller-coaster-191147">if bitumen’s future is uncertain, so is Alberta’s economy</a>. </p>
<p>Alberta, like a one-company town, faces a clear and present danger. Is there a Plan B to tilt Alberta away from its bitumen addiction? How will Smith reduce reliance on oilsands royalties? These are pressing questions that must be answered by the Alberta government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert L. Ascah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Alberta government is failing to ensure environmental liabilities are adequately accounted for and that progress is being made to address the province’s massive tailings ponds.Robert L. Ascah, Research Fellow, The Parkland Institute, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1928272022-11-06T11:48:56Z2022-11-06T11:48:56ZA Canadian senator aims to end the widespread financial backing of fossil fuels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492769/original/file-20221101-19-62x1oe.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4800%2C3305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wet'suwet'en Chief Madeek reacts with his middle finger to protest the Royal Bank of Canada's funding of the Coastal GasLink pipeline and other fossil fuel investments in Toronto in April 2022.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27">United Nations climate change conference, COP27,</a> has begun in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. In the lead-up to the conference, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> report revealed <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/un-ipcc-report-1.6407534">“a litany of broken climate promises” by governments and corporations.</a></p>
<p>“It is a file of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put us firmly on track toward an unlivable world,” he said.</p>
<p>Canada is high on the list of empty pledges. The government’s COP26 commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 40 to 45 per cent by 2030 — enacted by the Canadian <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-19.3/fulltext.html">Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act</a> — is not only seen as an inadequate target, it’s also been sharply criticized for <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/">lacking the necessary action to meet its commitments.</a> That’s deservedly so, given its poor track record in meeting past targets.</p>
<p>A report commissioned by the <a href="https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/phaseout-pathways-fossil-fuel-production-within-paris-compliant-carbon-budgets">International Institute for Sustainable Development</a> has found that high-income countries like Canada must cut oil and gas output by 74 per cent by 2030 and end production by 2034 to keep global warming within 1.5 C. And yet <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/12/14/opinion/canadas-energy-regulator-turns-blind-eye-dangerous-global-warming">Canada’s national energy regulator</a> anticipates oil production will keep increasing until 2040 and decline only slightly after that.</p>
<h2>Financing oil production</h2>
<p>Despite the proliferation of climate-related disasters across Canada and around the globe, the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau bought — and continues to guarantee — <a href="https://wcel.org/media-release/new-report-projects-federal-government-will-forgive-17-billion-trans-mountains-debt">bank financing of the Trans Mountain pipeline</a>. It will carry oilsands bitumen to the West Coast. </p>
<p>The federal government also approved the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/bay-du-nord-approval-1.6410509">Bay du Nord</a> oil development project off the coast of Newfoundland, which aims to double oil production by 2030. The <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/canada-pipelines-financing-iisd-2021/">Coastal GasLink pipeline</a> across Northern British Columbia is also supported by government money.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two large industrial pipes lead to a receiving platform against a grey sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492576/original/file-20221031-22-dxg5bj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492576/original/file-20221031-22-dxg5bj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492576/original/file-20221031-22-dxg5bj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492576/original/file-20221031-22-dxg5bj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492576/original/file-20221031-22-dxg5bj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492576/original/file-20221031-22-dxg5bj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492576/original/file-20221031-22-dxg5bj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Piping is seen on the top of a receiving platform that will be connected to the Coastal GasLink natural gas pipeline terminus at the LNG Canada export terminal under construction in Kitimat, B.C., in September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Governments have turned a blind eye to the role of financial institutions that are responsible for the lion’s share of money pumped into the Canadian fossil fuel industry. </p>
<p>The Big Five banks — RBC, TD, Scotiabank, BMO and CIBC — are <a href="https://www.ran.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BOCC_2022_vSPREAD-1.pdf">among the 20 largest funders of fossil fuels globally</a> and have loaned or <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/04/27/explainer/canada-banks-funding-climate-change-fossil-fuels">invested more than $900 million in fossil fuels</a> since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement.</a></p>
<p>Roughly 20 per cent of their directors also serve on the boards of fossil fuel companies. <a href="https://www.investorsforparis.com/insuring-the-climate-crisis/">Sun Life and Manulife Insurance</a> together hold almost $20 billion worth of investments in coal companies. </p>
<p>Despite touting their questionable sustainable financing credentials, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-rbc-releases-2030-targets-to-reduce-emissions-intensity-from-carbon/">Canada’s major financial institutions have only committed to reducing the carbon intensity</a> of their fossil fuel clients’ activities. They have yet to commit to reducing absolute emissions.</p>
<p>In the public sector, <a href="https://www.edc.ca/en/about-us/newsroom/covid-19-oil-gas-support.html">Export Development Canada</a> provides oil and gas companies with considerable financing, loan guarantees and insurance. </p>
<p><a href="https://policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/news-releases/canada%E2%80%99s-biggest-public-pension-plans-still-banking-fossil-fuels">Canadian and Québec pension plans</a> hold billions of dollars in fossil fuel investments. While the Québec plan — <a href="https://www.cdpq.com/en">CDPQ</a> — has committed to divest from oil producers by the end of 2022, the Canada Pension Plan continues to explicitly rule out divestment. </p>
<h2>Senator proposes real climate action</h2>
<p>Amid this sea of hypocrisy, delusion and denialism — <a href="https://www.carbonindependent.org/119.html#:%7E:text=%22Climate%20neutral%22%20blah%20blah%20blah,their%20empty%20words%20and%20promises.">“Blah blah blah,” in the words of climate activist Greta Thunberg</a> — there are a few bright spots in Canadian Parliament. </p>
<p>One resides in the Senate. Independent Québec Sen. <a href="https://sencanada.ca/en/senators/galvez-rosa/">Rosa Galvez</a>, one of Canada’s foremost experts in pollution control, was a professor of environmental engineering at Laval University for more than 25 years before being <a href="https://newcanadianmedia.ca/politics-remains-a-man-dominated-world-senator-rosa-galvez/">appointed to the Senate in 2016 by Trudeau.</a></p>
<p>Galvez has called for ambitious and coherent government intervention to <a href="https://rosagalvez.ca/en/initiatives/climate-aligned-finance/">address the risks that financial institutions pose to climate</a> and to shield financial institutions from system failure. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1558926817200930817"}"></div></p>
<p>She’s called out conflicts of interest by bank directors who concurrently serve on fossil fuel corporate boards, <a href="https://www.theenergymix.com/2022/03/25/new-senate-bill-targets-financial-institutions-that-fuel-climate-risk/">alleging earlier this year</a>: “It’s just a big family…”</p>
<p>In March 2022, Galvez tabled Bill S-243, the Climate Aligned Finance Act, aimed at holding governments and financial institutions to account for their actions. She outlined her legislation in a keynote speech at the <a href="https://group78.org">Group of 78 conference</a> in September.</p>
<p>The act would: </p>
<p>• Hold corporate directors, officers and administrators accountable for meeting the companies’ climate commitments.</p>
<p>• Mandate corporate climate action plans and targets with annual progress reports.</p>
<p>• Ensure that boards have the necessary climate expertise and ensure no conflicts of interest exist.</p>
<p>• Align existing laws for the relevant government organizations to climate priorities, including requiring the federal supervisor, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), to mandate climate targets.</p>
<h2>Facing pushback</h2>
<p>A recent <a href="https://oxfam.qc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022-canada-banks-carbon-footprint-report.pdf">report examining the carbon footprint of banks</a> is calling for the adoption of the Climate Aligned Finance Act as soon as possible.</p>
<p>However, it faces major pushback from financial and fossil fuel corporations and from politicians and senior government officials. </p>
<p>To stand a chance of becoming law, it will require aggressive advocacy by climate-committed citizens’ groups and politicians at all levels of government. If successful, it would be an important step toward phasing out fossil fuel production in Canada in line with scientific and UN warnings.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person carrying a sign that says code red, don't cop out stands in front of a stone building with other protesters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492575/original/file-20221031-25-pqkiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5344%2C2948&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492575/original/file-20221031-25-pqkiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492575/original/file-20221031-25-pqkiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492575/original/file-20221031-25-pqkiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492575/original/file-20221031-25-pqkiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492575/original/file-20221031-25-pqkiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492575/original/file-20221031-25-pqkiep.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate protesters gather in front of the Prime Minister’s Office in Ottawa to call on Justin Trudeau to take action on climate in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Trudeau government’s climate incrementalism doesn’t inspire optimism. The record of most provincial governments inspires even less. The <a href="https://www.cgai.ca/northern_populism_causes_and_consequences_of_the_new_ordered_outlook?utm_source=National+Observer&utm_campaign=7307c7887e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_10_07_08_23&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_cacd0f141f-7307c7887e-254394997">rise of authoritarian populism</a> accompanied by climate denialism within a large segment of the Conservative base presents an even more disturbing roadblock to effective action on climate change. </p>
<p>In the 1930s, philosopher Antonio Gramsci wrote of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08935696.2019.1577616">“the pessimism of the intellect, the optimism of the will,</a>” contrasting his pessimistic analysis of the present with hope for the future.</p>
<p>With planetary survival in peril, voices like Galvez’s offer some optimism. But she’ll need Canadians to rally around her proposals — and fast.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192827/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Campbell is affiliated with. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Group of 78, Rideau Institute for International Affairs, Polaris institute</span></em></p>Sen. Rosa Galvez has called for ambitious and coherent government intervention to address the risks financial institutions pose to climate. Here’s why Canadians must rally around her.Bruce Campbell, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1885672022-08-21T13:09:26Z2022-08-21T13:09:26ZThe Big Four oilsands companies’ influence threatens Alberta democracy, argues political scientist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479744/original/file-20220817-14-7wjzag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3988%2C2520&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The oilsands have driven Alberta’s economy and finances for the past two decades.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past five years, ownership of oilsands production has become hyperconcentrated in four companies: <a href="https://www.cenovus.com/Our-company">Cenovus Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.cnrl.com/about-cnq/corporate-profile">Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL)</a>, <a href="https://www.imperialoil.ca/en-CA/Company/About">Imperial Oil Limited</a> and <a href="https://www.suncor.com/en-ca/who-we-are">Suncor Energy</a>. </p>
<p>These four producers — known as the Big Four — account for about <a href="https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/projects/bitumen-production">84 per cent</a> of Alberta’s daily production of <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/budget-highlights.aspx">3.3 million barrels of bitumen</a>, a type of <a href="http://www.fossilfuelconnections.org/bitumen">crude oil found in oilsands deposits</a>.</p>
<p>Not only that, but it is the oilsands that have driven Alberta’s economy and finances for the past two decades. According to <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/budget-2022">Alberta’s 2022 budget</a>, oilsands production will make up 87 per cent of the province’s total oil production, as conventional fields empty.</p>
<p>In the face of <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/alberta-canadas-tar-sands-is-growing-but-indigenous-people-fight-back">growing environmental concerns</a> and regulatory requirements, some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/10/shell-sells-canadian-oil-sands-as-boss-warns-of-losing-public-support">international companies have decided to exit</a> the oilsands. Between 2016 and 2019, foreign oil companies <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-deals-in-the-oil-sands-are-coming-as-canadas-biggest-energy-companies/">Chevron</a>, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/shell-in-725-billion-deal-to-sell-oil-sands-assets-to-canadian-natural/article34246700/">Shell</a>, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bp-exits-albertas-sunrise-oil-sands-project-with-sale-of-50-per-cent/">BP</a> and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/statoil-sale-of-oil-sands-assets-marks-major-departure/article33342488/">Statoil</a> sold their oilsands holdings.</p>
<p>But other major Canadian producers, like CNRL and Cenovus Energy, have doubled down. They see the emission-intensive extraction operation as a golden opportunity to dominate an <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/oil-sands-facts-and-statistics.aspx">increasingly single-industry province</a>.</p>
<p>As a political scientist who has worked in a large Alberta-based financial institution and the provincial treasury department, I am familiar with the booms and busts of Alberta’s economy and its correlation to provincial finances. The financial dependence of the Alberta government on bitumen royalties has increased enormously over the past several years. </p>
<h2>An industry flush with cash</h2>
<p>By comparing the <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/royalty-oil-sands.aspx">amount of bitumen royalties</a> and corporate income taxes from the Big Four to Alberta’s total revenue, it is possible to estimate the province’s fiscal dependency on these companies.</p>
<p>The numbers show that no province, other than perhaps <a href="https://thestrand.ca/on-the-family-that-owns-new-brunswick/">New Brunswick with its dominant Irving family</a>, comes near Alberta’s level of corporate fiscal dependency.</p>
<p>The revenue expected from the Big Four oilsands producers in 2022, assuming an average per barrel price of $115, will be a staggering $116 billion — <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/budget-2022">about 25 per cent of Alberta’s GDP</a>. </p>
<p>During the first half of 2022, <a href="https://news.imperialoil.ca/news-releases/news-releases/2022/Imperial-announces-second-quarter-2022-financial-and-operating-results/default.aspx">Imperial Oil</a>, <a href="https://www.cenovus.com/News-and-Stories/News-releases/2022/2487587">Cenovus Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.cnrl.com/disclaimer.html?redirect=https://www.cnrl.com/upload/report/156/06c531f96772/06.30.2022-q2-fs.pdf">CNRL</a> and <a href="https://sustainability-prd-cdn.suncor.com/-/media/project/suncor/files/investor-centre/quarterly-reports-2022/2022-q1-suncor-energy-quarterly-report-en.pdf">Suncor Energy</a> have reported net income of $17.1 billion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large room with industrial-sized pipes running along the length of it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479466/original/file-20220816-2787-klkyqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479466/original/file-20220816-2787-klkyqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479466/original/file-20220816-2787-klkyqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479466/original/file-20220816-2787-klkyqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479466/original/file-20220816-2787-klkyqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479466/original/file-20220816-2787-klkyqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479466/original/file-20220816-2787-klkyqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pipes are seen at the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain facility in Edmonton in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What is less understood is what this vast increase in revenue means for the Alberta treasury and, to a lesser extent, the federal government. </p>
<p>During the first six months of 2022, the Big Four paid an estimated $8 billion in royalties to the Alberta government. Most of their $6.8 billion in income tax expenses went to the federal government, with the remaining 30 per cent going to the Alberta government. </p>
<p>Since Alberta has the <a href="https://edmontonglobal.ca/alberta-lowest-corporate-tax-rate-in-canada/">lowest corporate tax rate in the country</a>, this creates an enormous incentive for these companies to create as much taxable income as possible. The taxes and royalties so far this year amount to about $10 billion, which would easily pay for Alberta’s K-12 education system.</p>
<h2>Lining the government’s pockets</h2>
<p>The concentration of economic and financial power in the Big Four means <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/ucp-leadership-race-rules">Alberta’s next premier</a> must heed the needs of these massive oilsands players. As oil prices rise, the financial dependency of the provincial treasury on the Big Four will grow.</p>
<p>Alberta’s 2022 budget <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-alberta-province-forecasts-202223-budget-surplus-oil-prices-soar-2022-02-24/">adopted a very conservative oil price estimate of US$70 per barrel</a>, which deliberately understated the expected surplus. It estimated <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-budget-province-to-post-511m-surplus-on-the-back-of-higher-oil-and-gas-prices">bitumen royalties would return $10.3 billion</a> during the fiscal year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cenovus Energy logos on display at the Global Energy Show" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479740/original/file-20220817-26-d8og33.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479740/original/file-20220817-26-d8og33.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479740/original/file-20220817-26-d8og33.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479740/original/file-20220817-26-d8og33.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479740/original/file-20220817-26-d8og33.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479740/original/file-20220817-26-d8og33.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479740/original/file-20220817-26-d8og33.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cenovus Energy is one of four major companies that produce 84 per cent of Alberta’s total bitumen production.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For every dollar above this US$70 per barrel estimate, an additional $500 million in oil royalties will flow to the government. At US$100 a barrel, an additional $9 billion in bitumen royalties would be paid, but with oil prices <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gas-prices-friday-1.6371492">averaging US$116 since April 1</a>, an additional $23 billion in oil and gas royalties could roll in.</p>
<p>Using this conservative oil price forecast, Alberta’s budget estimated its total revenue will be $52 billion. In reality, its revenue will likely be much higher. </p>
<p>The Big Four contribute about 20 per cent of Alberta’s total revenue. At US$100 per barrel, the Big Four contribute about 30 per cent of the province’s revenue and, at US$116 per barrel, the contribution exceeds 30 per cent. This gives these companies an enormous amount of control over Alberta’s finances and, by extension, politics.</p>
<h2>Pathways Alliance</h2>
<p>The Big Four’s political influence has most recently manifested in its dominant position in the <a href="https://pathwaysalliance.ca/key-oil-sands-groups-join-forces-under-pathways-alliance-banner/">Pathways Alliance</a>. This lobbying consortium — known as COSIA — consists of the Big Four, ConocoPhillips and MEG Energy. </p>
<p>According to their website, <a href="https://pathwaysalliance.ca/who-we-are/">COSIA’s purpose</a> is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from oilsands production and achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions. The Pathways Alliance sees oilsands production carrying on for nearly three decades and beyond.</p>
<p>Central to this lobby effort has been successfully convincing Ottawa to give the firms a tax credit in the <a href="https://www.bennettjones.com/Blogs-Section/Canadian-Budget-Proposes-New-Investment-Tax-Credit-For-Carbon-Capture-Utilization-and-Storage">2022 federal budget</a>. This sets a dangerous precedent — if Ottawa itself is willing to grant the wishes of the Big Four, what chance will the Alberta premier have in refusing similar requests?</p>
<p>The fiscally dependent Alberta government will continue its battles against Ottawa on behalf of the Big Four. Whether or not this is good for Alberta’s democracy, its residents and the planet is another matter entirely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert L. Ascah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Four companies contribute about 20 per cent of Alberta’s total revenue, giving them an enormous amount of control over the province’s finances and, by extension, politics.Robert L. Ascah, Research Fellow, The Parkland Institute, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1861952022-07-19T15:41:52Z2022-07-19T15:41:52ZHow Canada’s oilsands can help build better roads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473470/original/file-20220711-19-qq0gd2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C28%2C4701%2C3124&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Low-quality asphalt binder — the glue that holds roads together — can leave roads prone to cracking in cold temperatures. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-canada-s-oilsands-can-help-build-better-roads" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The future seems bleak for Canada’s oilsands. But given the world’s ongoing need for smooth, safe roads, there is hope for the industry. Asphalt binder made from oilsands bitumen is the ideal glue to hold <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180698">the world’s 40 million kilometres of roads</a> together — and it can be done sustainably, economically and environmentally.</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021">global transition to electric vehicles</a> underway, and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/07/government-of-canada-confirms-ambitious-new-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target.html">Canada’s 2021 commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030</a> to meet its Paris Agreement obligations, Canada will use less fossil fuels, especially from imports and upgraded products, including those from the Alberta oilsands. </p>
<p>About 10 per cent of Canada’s current emissions come from the extraction and upgrading of crude bitumen from the oilsands, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html#oil-gas">roughly 70 million tonnes per year</a>. Globally, about <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions-drivers-impacts.html">70 to 80 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions</a> are from burning fuels for electricity, heat and transportation, and from industry. </p>
<p>Our research group has investigated the life-cycle performance of asphalt roads for the past 30 years, providing some remarkable insights on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2022.136389">relative benefits of straight Alberta binder</a>, produced with minimal refining and without upgrading. Producing asphalt binder from Alberta crude bitumen can realistically <a href="https://albertainnovates.ca/programs/bitumen-beyond-combustion/">reduce combustion and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands by anywhere from 40 to 60 per cent</a>.</p>
<h2>Low-quality asphalt leads to more repairs</h2>
<p>Alberta bitumen is low in wax, making it highly desirable for the production of asphalt binders. The <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328569848_Asphalt_Re-recycling">low wax content means the pavement can be recycled — and recycled again</a> — supporting a true circular economy. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3396">Pavement lifespans are in decline</a> due to heavy traffic, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3390">extreme temperatures</a> and the incorrect use of reclaimed materials to rehabilitate and reconstruct old roads. The use of so-called green technologies — inexpensive, recycled engine oil, for example — <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en16/v1_310en16.pdf">offers short-term satisfaction at the expense of long-term performance</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-income-trusts-could-accelerate-canadas-energy-transition-138873">Green income trusts could accelerate Canada’s energy transition</a>
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</em>
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<p>Government transportation agencies aren’t incentivized to use stronger binders. Yet pavement cracking can be reduced <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2022.136389">by as much as 30 to 50 per cent</a> by building roads that maximize the use of straight, unadulterated Alberta binder. </p>
<p>Doing so allows municipal, provincial and state infrastructure owners around the world to reduce construction and rehabilitation budgets, <a href="https://inrix.com/scorecard/">decrease travel delays and associated costs</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118781137">improve safety</a>.</p>
<h2>Binders are complex materials</h2>
<p>Two binder components influence the lifespan of roads: asphaltenes and waxes. Asphaltenes are <a href="https://albertainnovates.ca/app/uploads/2021/05/NPUC-Asphaltene-Workshop_Yunlong-Zhang-Final.pdf">large molecules that give the binder cohesive strength</a> (the adhesive’s ability to hold itself together) and adhesive strength (the strength between the adhesive and another material), but prevent it from flowing at cold temperatures. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/ef060463b">Paraffin waxes are often a natural component of asphalt</a>, occurring in varying amounts depending on the source of the crude used to manufacture the binder. </p>
<p>The binder is a mixture of solid asphaltenes and waxes in an oily material. When the wax content is high, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2010.488730">asphaltenes tend to separate from the oils and pack together more tightly</a>. A high-wax binder is stiffer at cold temperatures, which reduces adhesion and promotes cracking. An optimal binder has minimal wax and has a more-or-less uniform composition.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A greyscale image of a 3D structure that looks like a sponge or a tangled set of roots." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473251/original/file-20220709-13-w6ouj8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473251/original/file-20220709-13-w6ouj8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473251/original/file-20220709-13-w6ouj8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473251/original/file-20220709-13-w6ouj8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473251/original/file-20220709-13-w6ouj8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473251/original/file-20220709-13-w6ouj8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473251/original/file-20220709-13-w6ouj8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Environmental scanning electron microscopy image, with lighter oils partially evaporated showing the packed asphaltenes. The rigid sponge-like structure prevents the binder from flowing at cold temperatures eventually leading to cracking, ravelling (slow disintegration) and spalling (cracking, breaking or chipping of edges).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Simon Hesp)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Poor-quality binder is costly</h2>
<p>Construction specifications for asphalt often fail to identify poor performing binders. More than a few substandard binders are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10298430802343169">currently being used in road construction in Canada</a>. Oilsands crudes have the lowest wax contents of all sources and can produce top-quality binders. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A road extending into the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473253/original/file-20220709-35533-mt9i28.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473253/original/file-20220709-35533-mt9i28.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473253/original/file-20220709-35533-mt9i28.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473253/original/file-20220709-35533-mt9i28.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473253/original/file-20220709-35533-mt9i28.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473253/original/file-20220709-35533-mt9i28.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473253/original/file-20220709-35533-mt9i28.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top performance from top-quality Alberta binder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Simon Hesp)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alberta binders of various grades perform well on their own, without additives, as long as they are used with good pavement designs. However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2022.127944">adding PET (polyethylene terephthalate) fibres from recycled plastic bottles can dramatically reinforce the asphalt</a>. </p>
<p>For example, a 12-year-old test section of asphalt in northern Ontario, constructed with top-quality binder from Alberta, and modified with 0.3 per cent of recycled PET fibre shows virtually no distress today. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2022.136389">It is expected to have an ultimate service life of about 38 years</a>; a significant improvement compared to historical 15- to 25-year performance cycles.</p>
<p>Producing asphalt binder from Alberta oilsands will not only reduce the industry’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 60 per cent, but can also extend pavement lifespan by 30 to 50 per cent.</p>
<h2>Fuel and asphalt demands are headed in opposite directions</h2>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil-inputs-and-outputs.php">about two per cent to five per cent of crude oil is made into asphalt</a>, and <a href="https://albertainnovates.ca/app/uploads/2022/04/AI-BBC-WHITE-PAPER_2022_WEB.pdf">the rest is upgraded to combustible fuels</a>. As government regulations shift to lower greenhouse gas emissions, companies that extract and/or produce crude oil will see lowered demand, and be pushed to create products that don’t need to be refined or won’t be burned. <a href="https://www.corporateknights.com/energy/could-bitumen-based-asphalt-pave-the-way-for-a-sustainable-future">Light and medium crudes cannot meet asphalt binder demand in a net-zero 2050 scenario</a>, making bitumen a strong contender for use as an asphalt binder. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180698">The world has nearly 40 million kilometres of roads, of which 65 per cent are paved</a>. Asphalt-paved roads are safer than unpaved roads, and are more economical for a greater volume of traffic. </p>
<p>The volume of unpaved roads globally presents a tremendous economic opportunity. Carbon pricing and credits will hasten the bitumen transition. Producing high-performing asphalt binders from Alberta crude bitumens — especially those extracted through <a href="https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/technical/in-situ">in-situ processes</a> that require a smaller surface area — can position the oilsands industry to remain viable. </p>
<p>Alberta has enough bitumen to supply the global road-building industry for more than 100 years if oilsands companies divert about 50 per cent of each barrel to produce asphalt binder. </p>
<p><em>Jen Kovinich, Aiden Kuhn and Alison Wong, undergraduate research assistants at Queen’s University, co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Hesp receives research funding and professional income from provincial and federal government funding agencies, producers and users of asphalt cement. Alberta Innovates is gratefully acknowledged for providing financial support to Jen Kovinich, Aiden Kuhn, Alison Wong and Haibo Ding to co-author this opinion article in the form of a Bitumen Beyond Combustion grant (AI 2515) to Simon Hesp. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Haibo Ding receives funding from Alberta Innovates and National Natural Science Foundation of China (52008352) and Applied Basic Research Project of Sichuan Province (2021YJ0533).</span></em></p>The quality of asphalt binder — the glue that holds roads together — influences their condition. Binder made from Alberta bitumen is low in waxes and could extend pavement lifespan.Simon Adrianus Maria Hesp, Professor of Chemistry, Queen's University, OntarioHaibo Ding, Assistant Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1808462022-04-14T16:48:08Z2022-04-14T16:48:08ZCanada’s new climate plan is reckless, but a better way forward is still possible<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458031/original/file-20220413-17-cb2nsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C30%2C5015%2C3062&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canada is the fourth-largest oil producer in the world, with almost all of its crude oil headed for the United States.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s new climate plan is reckless. The federal government’s Emissions Reduction Plan doesn’t meet the criteria of credible net-zero emissions plans, and it lacks any vision of a future capable of inspiring Canadians to change their lives.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/emissions-reduction-2030.html">Emissions Reduction Plan</a> is the first released under the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050/canadian-net-zero-emissions-accountability-act.html">Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act</a>. It aims to put Canada on track to reduce emissions by 40-45 per cent from 2005 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. </p>
<p>It will do neither. </p>
<p>More than 120 countries, 800 cities and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359874761_Transnational_Corporations_and_Climate_Governance_A_Case_Study_of_Amazoncom's_Net-Zero_Climate_Pledge">1,500 companies</a> have made net-zero pledges. Meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 C above the pre-industrial average requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 and fall to net zero by 2050. </p>
<p>According to climate researchers, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01245-w">credible, science-based net-zero plans</a> must: </p>
<ol>
<li>Reduce emissions as soon as possible.</li>
<li>Minimize reliance on removing emissions from the atmosphere.</li>
<li>Comprehensively address all greenhouse gas emissions. </li>
<li>Ensure an equitable approach to reducing emissions.</li>
<li>Align emissions reductions with broader socio-ecological objectives like biodiversity and habitat conservation. </li>
<li>Present an <a href="https://transitionaccelerator.ca/our-approach/">inspiring vision of a better future</a>.</li>
</ol>
<p>Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan fails to meet any of these criteria.</p>
<h2>Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan falls short</h2>
<p>The plan fails to aggressively reduce emissions in the short term. Instead, it sets an unambitious target for Canada’s <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-emissions/sources-sinks-executive-summary-2021.html">largest and fastest growing source of emissions</a>, calling for <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2022/03/2030-emissions-reduction-plan--canadas-next-steps-for-clean-air-and-a-strong-economy.html">a 31 per cent reduction from the oil and gas sector</a>, but it is not binding. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/phaseout-pathways-fossil-fuel-production-within-paris-compliant-carbon-budgets">a recent analysis</a>, to have even 50-50 odds of meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 C target, Canada’s oil and gas output must fall by 74 per cent by 2030, with a complete phaseout by 2034. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-political-opportunities-and-challenges-of-canadas-new-9-1b-climate-plan-179564">The political opportunities and challenges of Canada's new $9.1B climate plan</a>
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<p>Just a week after Canada released the plan, the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/impact-assessment-agency/news/2022/04/government-accepts-agencys-recommendation-on-bay-du-nord-development-project-subject-to-the-strongest-environmental-ghg-condition-ever.html">government approved the Bay du Nord offshore oil project</a>, which will produce about 200,000 barrels of oil per day starting in 2028, and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/bay-du-nord-approval-1.6410509">300 million barrels over its lifetime</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Image of a ship drawing oil from the sea bed via pipes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458032/original/file-20220413-3788-ijwygx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458032/original/file-20220413-3788-ijwygx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458032/original/file-20220413-3788-ijwygx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458032/original/file-20220413-3788-ijwygx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458032/original/file-20220413-3788-ijwygx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458032/original/file-20220413-3788-ijwygx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458032/original/file-20220413-3788-ijwygx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Illustration of the planned Bay du Nord floating production storage and offloading vessel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Equinor)</span></span>
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<p>The government claims that offshore oil extraction produces fewer emissions per barrel than the oilsands, but that’s a dangerous distraction. Oil is inevitably burned, which accounts for 80-90 per cent of its emissions. In a world with <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FinalDraft_Chapter03.pdf">a shrinking global carbon budget</a>, relative emissions intensity is irrelevant. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8">Absolute emissions are what matter</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-clock-reset-shows-the-world-is-one-year-closer-to-1-5-c-warming-threshold-169122">Climate clock reset shows the world is one year closer to 1.5 C warming threshold</a>
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<p>Canada’s decision is far out of line with climate science. The <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/pathway-to-critical-and-formidable-goal-of-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-is-narrow-but-brings-huge-benefits">International Energy Agency’s 2021 net-zero pathway</a>, which the <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/03/14/opinion/every-tool-toolbox-why-we-need-carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage-fight">government relies on heavily</a>, clearly explains that the world can’t afford any new oil and gas development after 2021. None. </p>
<p>Even so, the <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2021/canada-energy-futures-2021.pdf">government projects oil and gas production to continue rising until 2050</a>, at which point <a href="https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Carter-Dordi-Canadas-one-eye-shut-climate-policy-1.1-April-16.pdf">Canada will produce more oil (1.9 billion barrels) than it did in 2019 (1.8 billion barrels)</a>.</p>
<p>Underscoring the urgency of the latest warning from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/21/climate/united-nations-fossil-fuels-climate-crisis.html">UN Secretary General António Guterres remarked</a>: “The truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels.”</p>
<h2>Canada doubles-down on carbon capture bet</h2>
<p>Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan bets heavily on <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-needs-to-cut-carbon-not-try-to-capture-it-175987">costly and ineffective carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology</a> to keep emissions from the atmosphere. The <a href="https://budget.gc.ca/2022/home-accueil-en.html">2022 federal budget</a> provides a subsidy to the oil and gas industry in the form of a $2.6 billion CCUS investment tax credit — the budget’s single largest piece of climate spending. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-2022-federal-budget-says-about-canadas-commitment-to-a-green-recovery-180453">What the 2022 federal budget says about Canada’s commitment to a green recovery</a>
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<p>The government has ignored the <a href="https://cehoicka.lab.yorku.ca/files/2022/01/Letter-from-Academics-re-CCUS-tax-investment-credit_January-2022-4.pdf?x98920">advice of more than 400 independent climate researchers, including myself, about the risks of CCUS</a>. Decades of research shows that CCUS actually captures and stores very little carbon (<a href="https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/phaseout-pathways-fossil-fuel-production-within-paris-compliant-carbon-budgets">less than 0.02 per cent of energy-related emissions in 2021</a>), <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-needs-to-cut-carbon-not-try-to-capture-it-175987">remains prohibitively expensive</a> and <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2019/EE/C9EE02709B">requires more energy to operate than previously thought</a>. Renewable energy and electrification are cheaper and proven non-polluting alternatives. </p>
<h2>Canada’s ‘set-and-forget’ carbon price</h2>
<p>Canada’s plan doesn’t comprehensively address Canada’s emissions. Canada continues to rely almost exclusively on carbon pricing to reduce emissions. </p>
<p>The carbon price increased to $50 per tonne in 2022, and will reach $170 in 2030. But the plan fails to close its many loopholes. <a href="https://climatechoices.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/State-of-carbon-pricing-report-English-FINAL.pdf">An independent analysis</a> shows that due to gaps and exemptions, large emitters paid, on average, only $4.96 per tonne of carbon in 2020. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/03/26/have-economists-led-the-worlds-environmental-policies-astray">“set-and-forget” carbon price</a> will not reduce emissions if it doesn’t apply to all of Canada’s emissions. The <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/emissions-reduction-2030.html">government’s own Net-Zero Advisory Body told the government this</a>, but the government ignored its advice.</p>
<h2>Canada’s plan is unjust</h2>
<p>Canada’s plan is far from fair. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00662-3">The world could not hope to achieve the Paris Agreement if every country to adopted</a> our dangerous approach. </p>
<p>Canada considers only its upstream oil and gas emissions, ignoring the downstream <a href="https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/standards_supporting/FAQ.pdf">Scope 3 emissions</a> that come from burning the fossil fuels we export. Canada’s plan unduly shifts the burden of reducing emissions to other countries. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/planting-trees-can-help-the-climate-but-only-if-we-also-stop-burning-fossil-fuels-179549">Planting trees can help the climate, but only if we also stop burning fossil fuels</a>
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<p>Canada’s plan pays insufficient attention to broader socio-ecological objectives. While it commits additional funding to land- and forest-management initiatives, that pales in comparison to its investment in CCUS. Nor does the plan ensure that nature-based solutions will be designed and implemented in partnership with Indigenous Peoples and local communities that disproportionately bear the brunt of climate impacts. </p>
<h2>A better way forward</h2>
<p>Finally, the Emissions Reduction Plan doesn’t offer an inspiring vision of Canada’s net-zero future; it won’t motivate Canadians to fundamentally alter their lives to mitigate and adapt to climate change. </p>
<p><a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">Comprehensive demand-side strategies across all sectors</a> can reduce emissions by 40-70 per cent by 2050. While climate change demands system change, individuals also have an important role to play too, especially the wealthiest: <a href="https://wir2022.wid.world/">The top 10 per cent of emitters are responsible for close to 50 per cent of global emissions</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A car charges on a snowy street at a public charger" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458030/original/file-20220413-20-8uew48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458030/original/file-20220413-20-8uew48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458030/original/file-20220413-20-8uew48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458030/original/file-20220413-20-8uew48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458030/original/file-20220413-20-8uew48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458030/original/file-20220413-20-8uew48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458030/original/file-20220413-20-8uew48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">More than 90 per cent of cars sold in Norway are electric. In Canada, 3.5 per cent of new cars sold in 2020 were battery-powered or plug-in hybrids, with most of them registered in British Columbia and Québec.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>This requires an <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/supercharge-me/9781788215190">EPIC approach: Extreme positive incentives for change</a>. Think of the significant subsidization of electric vehicles in Norway, where 90 per cent of cars sold are electric, or <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">the dramatic cost reductions in solar and wind energy</a> due to generous government support. </p>
<p>We need much more of this: Massive mortgage discounts for owners who retrofit their homes, huge tax cuts for installing heat pumps, free — and electrified — public transit. Sector by sector, we need vastly cheaper green options. </p>
<p>But far more than this, Canadians must envision a future that is both decarbonized and desirable. This means re-imagining how we live, work, move and play, and demanding that our governments make it happen. </p>
<p>There’s still time for Canadians to come together and create a future that’s not only liveable but worth living, but our window is closing fast.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a story originally published on April 14, 2022. It clarifies that Canada produced 1.8 billion barrels of oil in 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason MacLean is a member of the board of directors of the Pacific Centre for Environmental Law and Litigation (CELL), and East Coast Environmental Law (ECELAW). </span></em></p>The recently released Emissions Reductions Plan aims to put Canada on track to reduce emissions by up to 45 per cent from 2005 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. It will do neither.Jason MacLean, Assistant Professor of Law, University of New BrunswickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1759882022-02-02T18:36:49Z2022-02-02T18:36:49ZAlberta oilpatch may face lending crunch as financial regulators worry about the risks of climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443882/original/file-20220201-15478-pjc3r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=99%2C59%2C4277%2C3245&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A recent study found oilsands producers could be four times more likely to default on loans by 2050 if global temperatures stay within 2 C of warming.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/pembina/7495467836">(Jennifer Grant/Pembina Institute)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New battle lines are being drawn between Canada’s financial regulators and Alberta’s oilpatch over the country’s climate change policies. </p>
<p>The Bank of Canada and Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) recently released a <a href="https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/eng/fi-if/in-ai/Pages/clrsk-mgm_let.aspx">pilot study</a> that looked at how prepared Canada’s financial institutions are in understanding and managing climate change risks. The study found that the creditworthiness of oilsands producers will fall dramatically over the next three decades.</p>
<p>As a political economist, I have been studying the shifts in climate change regulations for several years. The friction arising between Ottawa and Alberta is also playing out around the world. </p>
<h2>Financial resilience</h2>
<p>Financial regulators — including the <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/">Financial Stability Board</a>, the international umbrella group of central banks and banking supervisors, and the newly formed <a href="https://www.ngfs.net/en">Network for Greening the Financial System</a>, which comprises 31 central banks and regulators from around the world — are becoming increasingly concerned about the creditworthiness of borrowers exposed to the risks of climate change. These regulators worry that as climate change worsens the financial system may become more unstable.</p>
<p>The OSFI pilot study analyzed four climate scenarios aligned around the Paris Agreement to limit global warming below 2 C and the more ambitious 1.5 C goal by 2100. The focus of the analysis was the financial institutions’ exposures to 10 sectors most affected by climate change policies. These sectors included forestry, livestock, coal, crude oil, gas, refined oil, electricity, energy-intensive industries and commercial transportation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-climate-stress-test-a-sustainable-finance-expert-explains-175313">What is a climate stress test? A sustainable finance expert explains</a>
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<p>The pilot study reported findings from a sample of six large financial institutions, including the Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank Group, Intact Financial Corporation, Co-operators Group Limited, Sun Life Financial and Manulife Financial Corporation. These firms have loaned $240 billion to companies in climate-exposed sectors. Of this total, about $70-billion is to the oil and gas industry.</p>
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<img alt="A man wearing glasses at a press conference with a row of Canadian flags behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443885/original/file-20220201-19-13h4td5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443885/original/file-20220201-19-13h4td5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443885/original/file-20220201-19-13h4td5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443885/original/file-20220201-19-13h4td5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443885/original/file-20220201-19-13h4td5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443885/original/file-20220201-19-13h4td5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443885/original/file-20220201-19-13h4td5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Canada’s top central banker Tiff Macklem announced in November 2020 that Canada’s financial system needs to become resilient to climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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<p>One of the key metrics financial institutions use to calculate their loan-loss provisions — expenses set aside to cover potential losses on loans — is the probability of default, which is closely monitored by regulators. </p>
<p>The study’s key finding was that the probability of default to exposed sectors would rise over time. This was especially true in the case of oilsands producers. </p>
<p>Their probability of default was estimated to rise by at least 400 per cent by 2050 under the 2 C immediate scenario. The probability of default for other oil and natural gas producers was expected to rise by 200 per cent. In contrast, the probability of default for a renewable electricity producer is expected to fall by up to five to 15 per cent. </p>
<h2>Implications for Alberta</h2>
<p>Federal jurisdiction over banking and federally incorporated insurance companies means that federal regulators can influence how much credit flows to Canada’s oil-patch. </p>
<p>The Calgary oil industry is dependent on bank loans and the sale of bonds and shares, which makes the industry reliant on Canadian banks. This fact has not been lost on environmentalists. </p>
<p>The fossil fuel divestment movement has achieved significant notoriety over the past decade. Many financial institutions and institutional investors have joined consortia to pledge to divest oil and gas holdings. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-divestment-is-the-road-to-climate-justice-159095">Fossil fuel divestment is the road to climate justice</a>
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<p>For example, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec has stated it will <a href="https://financialpost.com/investing/caisse-de-depot-to-exit-oil-production-by-end-of-next-year-in-new-climate-strategy">unload its oil-producing holdings by the end of 2022</a> and Harvard University — and other academic institutions — has agreed to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/climate-crimes-about-this-series">divest its holdings</a> in fossil fuels. Norway’s US$1.3-trillion state pension fund has also <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-message-from-the-norway-wealth-fund-to-oil-sands-companies-clean-up/">sold off oilsands holdings</a>. </p>
<p>The OSFI-Bank of Canada report will now be used by environmentalists and the divestment movement to argue that fighting climate change now has powerful national regulators on board.</p>
<h2>Policies on climate-related disclosure</h2>
<p>Canada is the only major G7 country without a national securities regulator. Instead, the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), a group of provincial securities regulators, sets national policies to keep securities markets across Canada working smoothly. </p>
<p>The CSA recently <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canadas-climate-disclosure-rules-are-useless-unless-we-fix-the-holes/">released a set of proposed disclosure requirements</a> that would call on all corporations that issue securities to report their greenhouse gas emissions from <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/greening-government/government-canada-greenhouse-gas-emissions-inventory.html">Scope 1 (direct emissions), Scope 2 (indirect emissions, arising from consumption of electricity, heat or steam) and Scope 3 (any other indirect emissions)</a>. </p>
<p>But Alberta has steadfastly defended its jurisdiction and the Alberta Securities Commission is expected to slow progress towards standardizing the disclosure for the oil and gas corporations it regulates. </p>
<p>The study is ill-timed for Alberta, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canadian-association-of-petroleum-producers-investment-increasing-1.6322270">where the oil and gas industry may now be spending more on capital investment</a> and where Premier Jason Kenney will face a leadership review in April. And who will pay for the massive cleanup of the tailings ponds? Alberta’s auditor general keeps asking oilsands producers this question — and soon, so will their banks. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial photograph of a large rectangular lake of mining waste." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444126/original/file-20220202-21-52iad6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444126/original/file-20220202-21-52iad6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444126/original/file-20220202-21-52iad6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444126/original/file-20220202-21-52iad6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444126/original/file-20220202-21-52iad6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444126/original/file-20220202-21-52iad6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444126/original/file-20220202-21-52iad6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A tailings pond at the Syncrude oilsands facility near Fort McMurray, Alta., in July 2012. The tailings ponds in northern Alberta store about 1.4 trillion litres of waste water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
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<p>In 2019, the Supreme Court reinforced the polluter-pays principle with its <a href="https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/17474/index.do?q=GrANT+thORNTON">decision on Redwater</a>, an Alberta oil and gas company that owned more than 100 wells and pipelines when it went bankrupt. The decision said banks can no longer wiggle out of environmental liabilities when a borrower goes under. A major rupture at one of the oilsands tailings ponds — the engineered lakes that contain waste water, sand, silt, residual bitumen and petrochemical waste from the oil sands mining process — would expose some of Canada’s largest financial institutions to enormous liability if an unforeseen event like this occurred. </p>
<p>We can expect federal financial institutions and their prudential regulators to be carrying out intensive credit and supervisory reviews of both oil and gas and oilsands borrowers in the coming months. Although oil and gas producers are today enjoying healthy cash flows ultimately this means that banks will be less keen to lend to oil and gas companies and oilsands producers or raise money for oilsands expansion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175988/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert L. Ascah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Oilsands producers can expect banks to do extensive reviews of their creditworthiness over the next several months.Robert L. Ascah, Research Fellow, The Parkland Institute, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1750212022-01-20T21:03:53Z2022-01-20T21:03:53ZCanada praised for climate leadership despite scathing watchdog report on climate-policy failures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441619/original/file-20220119-27-4grq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=125%2C139%2C4515%2C3131&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is overhauling a methane-reduction program after a scathing report from Canada's environment commissioner.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the International Energy Agency (IAE) released its <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/canada-2022">update report on Canada</a> in mid-January, it was largely a summary of the Canadian fossil fuels landscape coupled with praise for the federal government’s climate policy commitments and Canada’s climate leadership. </p>
<p>Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson was clearly pleased, issuing a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/natural-resources-canada/news/2022/01/canadas-bold-policies-and-support-for-innovation-can-underpin-a-successful-energy-transition-says-new-iea-policy-review.html">statement that the IEA report vindicated the government’s climate progress</a>: “This report, in my mind, is a validation of the work that the federal government has been doing over the past six years.” The statement included a message from Fatih Birol, IEA executive director: “Canada has shown impressive leadership, both at home and abroad, on clean and equitable energy transitions.”</p>
<p>Yet it was only a few short months ago that Environment and Sustainable Development Commissioner Jerry DeMarco released a <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202111_05_e_43898.html">scathing report on Canada’s climate record</a> . Canada, he wrote, “has become the worst performer of all G7 nations since the landmark Paris Agreement on climate change was adopted in 2015. We can’t continue to go from failure to failure; we need action and results, not just more targets and plans.”</p>
<p>The commissioner’s report is blunt, and signals that it will hold the government accountable for its climate-related policy failures going forward. It methodically details multiple shortcomings of the federal government’s climate strategy and policy, including its relationships with other levels of government, and what can be done to remedy these shortcomings.</p>
<h2>The good news</h2>
<p>The IEA report wasn’t entirely favourable. It recommended Canada develop a national emissions reduction plan, including clearly defined targets for reducing emissions in the oil and gas sector, and focus on bolstering electricity production and connections between provinces.</p>
<p>Yet it danced around Canada’s most controversial climate policy shortcomings. It made no mention of the continuing investments in fossil fuel supply, <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/nrcan/files/energy/energy_fact/2021-2022/PDF/2021_Energy-factbook_december23_EN_accessible.pdf">roughly $38 billion per year</a> or its failure to establish an end-date for fossil fuel emissions, even though the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/energy-climate-change-iea-1.6030771">IEA’s own net-zero 2050 report specified the need to end investments</a> <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">in coal mines and oil and gas supply</a> projects. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2021/canada-energy-futures-2021.pdf">latest projections by the Canada Energy Regulator</a>, oil sands production currently at three million barrels per day is projected to rise to 3.9 million barrels per day by 2032 and then decline slightly to 3.4 million barrels per day by 2050. </p>
<p>The IEA report implied the planned increase in oil sands production would endanger the future safety of the planet, but it only gently pressed Canada to “further reduce the environmental impact of oilsands development in order to balance ambitious environmental targets with the economic benefits of resource development.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-better-canada-after-covid-19-launch-a-fossil-free-future-140691">How to build a better Canada after COVID-19: Launch a fossil-free future</a>
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<p>There may be several reasons why the IEA did not come down hard on Canada. It likely wanted to emphasize positive actions that Canada has taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, Canada is one of the few nations that has <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/06/government-of-canada-legislates-climate-accountability-with-first-net-zero-emissions-law.html">enacted its net-zero commitment into law</a>. Perhaps, more cynically, the agency was reluctant to alienate a major energy producer and funder.</p>
<p>There was little reaction from the Alberta government and the oil and gas industry, suggesting that the IEA report posed no threat to their production plans going forward.</p>
<h2>Reality check</h2>
<p>In contrast, the commissioner’s report, <em>Lessons Learned from Canada’s Record on Climate Change</em>, notes that despite repeated commitments to reduce emissions at multiple climate summits, <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/att__e_43902.html">Canada’s emissions have increased by more than 20 per cent since</a> 1990. Canada’s emissions continued to <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC%20Office/2021/06/REPORT_ccpa-bc-cmp_canadas-energy-sector.pdf">increase by 3.3 per cent even after the 2015 Paris Agreement</a> — the same year Justin Trudeau was elected. </p>
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<p>The report notes that Canada is among the highest carbon emitters per capita. It is the world’s fourth-largest oil producing country, after the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia. According to the report, 53 per cent of Canada’s oil is exported, and Canada’s continued oil production growth will come exclusively from the oil sands.</p>
<p>The global average of carbon emissions generated from producing oil was 19 kilograms per barrel, according to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8509754/iea-canada-oil-oilsands-carbon-footprint/">Rystad Energy</a>. But a barrel of oil from Canada’s oilsands generates nearly four times as much — 73 kilograms of carbon. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tenth-of-active-and-abandoned-oil-and-gas-wells-in-northeastern-b-c-are-leaking-127921">A tenth of active and abandoned oil and gas wells in northeastern B.C. are leaking</a>
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<p>The Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development’s report includes the following reminders and critiques:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The experience of climate change is highly unequal within Canada and internationally.</p></li>
<li><p>Canada needs to move the debate from whether the country should significantly reduce its emissions toward a discussion on how emissions should be reduced.</p></li>
<li><p>Federal investment of $12.6 billion in the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) is an example of policy incoherence in relation to moving forward on climate commitments.</p></li>
<li><p>Limited co-ordination between different levels of government has led to ad hoc or contradictory climate policy measures such as identification, assessment, measurement and management of climate related risks and opportunities. </p></li>
<li><p>The onshore portion of Natural Resources Canada’s <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-and-data/funding-partnerships/funding-opportunities/current-funding-opportunities/emissions-reduction-fund/22781">Canada Emissions Reduction Fund</a>, which offered up to $673 million per company, did not, according to the commissioner’s 2021 audit, ensure credible and sustainable reductions in the oil and gas sector’s greenhouse gas emissions or value for money spent.</p></li>
<li><p>Current securities legislation in Canada requires the disclosure of certain climate-related information such as the impact of climate change on a company or an investment fund’s returns. However, there is no standard framework for corporations to report climate-related financial disclosures in a comparable and transparent framework.</p></li>
</ul>
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<img alt="Two men sit at a table with mics and laptops in front of them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441816/original/file-20220120-8832-h5nqzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441816/original/file-20220120-8832-h5nqzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441816/original/file-20220120-8832-h5nqzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441816/original/file-20220120-8832-h5nqzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441816/original/file-20220120-8832-h5nqzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441816/original/file-20220120-8832-h5nqzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441816/original/file-20220120-8832-h5nqzx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sits beside U.S. President Joe Biden at an event about the Global Methane Pledge at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 2, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The path forward</h2>
<p>In 2022, according to the report, the environmental commissioner will share its audit work with Parliament and Canadians regarding the government’s promises to ensure it has in place strong actions to meet its climate targets. These include carbon pricing, just transition for workers and communities, hydrogen strategy, greening government operations and climate resilient infrastructure, as well as a study on climate-related financial disclosure. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-green-hydrogen-but-not-grey-could-help-solve-climate-change-162987">Why green hydrogen — but not grey — could help solve climate change</a>
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<p>The commissioner is a rare arm of government willing and able to speak truth to power. It is an independent body within the Office of the Auditor General that reports directly to Parliament. It is not subject to political manipulation. </p>
<p>Although it cannot legally obligate the government to make good on its promises, the commissioner can show the Canadian public — and the world — when government climate policies are just words on paper or unfulfilled promises.</p>
<p>In fact, in response to the commissioner’s report, Wilkinson said <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/feds-overhauling-methane-reduction-fund-slammed-by-environment-commissioner-1.5732196">he would overhaul the methane-reduction program to give it more transparency and better outcomes</a>. </p>
<p>Therein lies hope that this time it will be different.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Campbell is affiliated with the following organizations with charitable status: Canadian Centre for Policy alternatives, research associate ; executive member group of 78;</span></em></p>As one of the few countries to have enshrined net-zero into law, Canada has earned praise for its climate leadership. Yet an independent report calls out its continued failures to reduce emissions.Bruce Campbell, Adjunct professor, faculty of environmental and urban change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1692172021-10-26T15:35:57Z2021-10-26T15:35:57ZHow Canada can leave 83 per cent of its oil in the ground and build strong new economies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428076/original/file-20211022-8398-l3kdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C3%2C1062%2C456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Phasing out fossil fuels means that today's production is the peak, and that from here on out extraction and infrastructure must decline over time.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Green Energy Futures/flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Burning coal, oil and natural gas accounts for nearly <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2018-increasing-at-fastest-rate-for-seven-years">90 per cent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions</a>. If we are to have a 50 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 C, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8">more than 83 per cent of Canada’s oil reserves must stay underground</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the newly re-elected Liberal government, which has put climate change policy at the centre of its agenda, is planning a long life for fossil fuels. Instead of keeping them in ground, <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/cap-and-cut-emissions-from-oil-and-gas/">the Liberals have committed</a> to capping and reducing emissions from the sector and then offsetting any remaining emissions by 2050. </p>
<p>This would allow an indefinite future for fossil fuel production in Canada. It would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/exclusive-oil-companies-ask-canada-pay-75-carbon-capture-facilities-2021-10-07/">require massive public investments</a> in carbon capture and storage and create <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC%20Office/2021/06/CCPA%20report_Dangerous%20Distractions%20Net%20Zero.pdf">dubious accounting schemes</a> that would move emissions off the books but not stop them from being produced. </p>
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<img alt="A field of canola with pump jacks in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428044/original/file-20211022-9803-1q1pc4b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428044/original/file-20211022-9803-1q1pc4b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428044/original/file-20211022-9803-1q1pc4b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428044/original/file-20211022-9803-1q1pc4b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428044/original/file-20211022-9803-1q1pc4b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428044/original/file-20211022-9803-1q1pc4b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428044/original/file-20211022-9803-1q1pc4b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pumpjacks draw oil out of the ground in a canola field near Olds, Alta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
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<p>Through the <a href="https://www.corporatemapping.ca/">Corporate Mapping Project</a>, my colleagues and I have been investigating the power and influence of the fossil fuel industry in Western Canada. This research shows that the industry only survives the politics of the climate crisis if it convinces politicians that net-zero will work and a future without fossil fuels is especially bleak. </p>
<p>But keeping 83 per cent of Canada’s oil in the ground doesn’t mean turning the tap off over night. It means winding down the industry using our skilled trades while also building out new lines of work that will remediate the land and focus on taking care of one another.</p>
<h2>No future for Canada’s oil</h2>
<p>Much of Canada’s oil must stay in the ground because Canadian oil is harder to reach — most of it is found in oilsands in northern Alberta, making it hard to extract, process and transport — and <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-has-canada-spent-billions-of-dollars-buying-saudi-arabian-oil">heavier than the light sweet crudes being produced in places like the Middle East</a>. On a per barrel basis, Canadian oil produces <a href="https://www.theenergymix.com/2021/10/05/albertas-friendly-oil-is-most-carbon-intensive-in-new-international-index/">more greenhouse gas emissions</a>, costs more to extract and fetches a <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/03/canadas-oil-sands-industry-is-taking-a-big-hit/">lower price on international markets</a>.</p>
<p>In an era of climate action, Canada is attempting to keep its industry, which accounts for roughly <a href="https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202100700003-eng">five per cent of the country’s GDP</a>, afloat through huge public subsidies estimated at between <a href="https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Carter-Dordi-Canadas-one-eye-shut-climate-policy-1.1-April-16.pdf">$2 billion and $63 billion per year</a>. But the mirage of net-zero oil production is blind to the full life cycle of oil-related carbon emissions — it does not consider the emissions produced by consuming oil and gas, only those associated with producing the oil.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-ditch-90-of-worlds-coal-and-60-of-oil-and-gas-to-limit-warming-to-1-5-c-experts-167494">Climate change: ditch 90% of world's coal and 60% of oil and gas to limit warming to 1.5°C – experts</a>
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<p>The oil and gas that is produced in Canada will be burned domestically and internationally in combustion engines and gas-fired power plants. These “scope 3” emissions, which can account for <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/equinor-s-move-to-halve-carbon-intensity-scope-3-emissions-both-praised-panned-56984504">upwards of 90 per cent</a> of the emissions associated with the complete life cycle of oil and gas, will no longer be tolerated in jurisdictions around the world trying to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to zero.</p>
<h2>Transition takes time</h2>
<p>Phasing out fossil fuels does not mean turning off the tap tomorrow. It does mean that today’s production is the peak, and that from here on out extraction and infrastructure must decline over time, reaching close to zero production by mid-century. </p>
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<img alt="Doctors and nurses gather in a room at a hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428073/original/file-20211022-9357-nq0gw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428073/original/file-20211022-9357-nq0gw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428073/original/file-20211022-9357-nq0gw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428073/original/file-20211022-9357-nq0gw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428073/original/file-20211022-9357-nq0gw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428073/original/file-20211022-9357-nq0gw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428073/original/file-20211022-9357-nq0gw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted Canada’s nursing shortage. With an aging population the country will need more personal support workers, nurses and other health-care professionals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
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<p>This leaves time to plan appropriately and support fossil fuel workers and their communities in an orderly transition. If we start now, we have time to wind down one part of our economies while ratcheting up others like renewable energies, environmental remediation, energy efficient housing and low carbon work in the caring professions, including elder and child care, health care and education. </p>
<p>In fact for every dollar spent, the number of direct and indirect jobs created in these sectors <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC%20Office/2020/03/ccpa-bc_Winding-Down-BCs-Fossil-Fuel-Industries.pdf">far exceeds</a> those in oil and gas extraction. </p>
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<img alt="bar graphic showing that more jobs are created in education and health care than mining or oil and gas per million dollars of output" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428074/original/file-20211022-9013-1pcaxe9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428074/original/file-20211022-9013-1pcaxe9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428074/original/file-20211022-9013-1pcaxe9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428074/original/file-20211022-9013-1pcaxe9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428074/original/file-20211022-9013-1pcaxe9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428074/original/file-20211022-9013-1pcaxe9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428074/original/file-20211022-9013-1pcaxe9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Direct and indirect jobs in British Columbia per $1 million of output. Not all investments are equal. Oil and gas produces relatively few jobs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Winding Down BC’s Fossil Fuel Industries, 2020/Corporate Mapping Project)</span></span>
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<p>Some economies will be disproportionately affected — Western Canada and Newfoundland will feel the brunt of the effects. They — and rural areas — will need more support and attention.</p>
<h2>What would the phase out look like?</h2>
<p>There is significant debate about what an orderly phase out of oil and gas could look like. <a href="https://thenextsystem.org/learn/stories/out-time-case-nationalizing-fossil-fuel-industry">Some suggest the industries should be nationalized</a>, so as to stop their powerful tactics of denial and delay. In this scenario Crown corporations would preside over the wind-down, shuttering the most costly and emissions-intensive production first, and investing the proceeds of oil production in the remediation and reclamation of oil infrastructure sites. </p>
<p>Over time, the public corporations would transition from extracting oil and gas to cleaning up oil wells, mine sites and pipelines, keeping fossil fuel workers employed using their existing skill sets. </p>
<p>A recent study looked at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0337-0">how California might limit fossil fuel production to reduce carbon dioxide emissions</a>. When the state stopped approving new permits for oil wells, the natural rates of depletion of existing wells would cut production 70 per cent by 2030 and substantially lower greenhouse gas emissions globally. </p>
<h2>Cleaning up the mess</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most significant challenge in winding down the industry is how to clean up its vast infrastructure while ensuring that the public is not left to pay for it. Oil and gas companies often lease land for their infrastructure or to access their mineral rights where the surface is already being used for other purposes, such as farming and ranching, parks or private dwelling.</p>
<p><a href="https://uofmpress.ca/books/detail/fault-lines">My research on rural oil-producing communities in Saskatchewan</a> regularly turned up disgruntled landholders who were dealing with unremediated well and battery sites, and small pipelines. This infrastructure can leak oil, gas and salt water, affecting crops, emitting potent greenhouse gases and contaminating surface and ground water. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-growing-cost-to-clean-up-abandoned-and-orphaned-wells-143673">The growing cost to clean up abandoned and orphaned wells</a>
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<p>The number of inactive wells — wells that are not producing oil and need to be cleaned up — has grown precipitously in the past decade, and <a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/unpaid-oilpatch-property-taxes-have-tripled-in-two-years-rural-municipalities-say">municipalities</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/abandoned-wells-oil-gas-alberta-cost-report-1.6033830">landowners</a> are complaining of unpaid property taxes and surface leases. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aldpcoalition.com/">Alberta Liabilities Disclosure Project</a> highlights that the liabilities of the Alberta industry alone have been estimated at $58 billion to $260 billion. With only $1.5 billion held in securities, governments need to plan now for how they will recover the cleanup bill. </p>
<p>Governments could create public reclamation trusts, funded by increased oil and gas securities, royalties and taxes, that would employ oil and gas workers to clean up the industry’s infrastructure. By remediating the land they would be building the groundwork needed for the next economies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Eaton receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and is part of the Corporate Mapping Project, a research and public engagement project investigating the power of the fossil fuel industry in Western Canada, led by the University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (BC and Saskatchewan Offices) and Parkland Institute. She is affiliated with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, SaskForward, the Treaty Land Sharing Network, and is active in other social and ecological justice causes.</span></em></p>If Canada chooses to keep its oil in the ground, it doesn’t mean turning off the tap overnight. Skilled trades will be key to winding down the industry and building up new lines of work.Emily Eaton, Associate professor, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, University of ReginaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1602302021-06-22T16:42:56Z2021-06-22T16:42:56ZHow engineered bacteria could clean up oilsands pollution and mining waste<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407272/original/file-20210618-21-w0x9j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C98%2C3835%2C2368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A tailings pond at an oilsands facility near Fort McMurray, Alta., in July 2012. The estimated cost of reclaiming oilsands mines is almost $31 billion. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rampant industrialization has <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">caused our planet to warm at an unprecedented rate</a>. Glaciers are melting away and <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">sea levels are rising</a>. Droughts last <a href="https://www.drought.gov/">longer and are more devastating</a>. Forest fires are <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/climate-change-increases-risk-fires-western-us">more intense</a>. Extreme, once-in-a-generation weather events — such as <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world">Category 5 hurricanes — seem to be occurring on an annual basis</a>. </p>
<p>The environment is indeed in grave health and urgent action is desperately needed. But there is genuine optimism that solutions to some of the largest environmental challenges may finally be at hand. </p>
<p>Take, for example, the decades-long problem of oilsands tailings ponds in Canada, the <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/energy-sources-distribution/clean-fossil-fuels/what-are-oil-sands/18089">third-largest reserve of crude oil in the world</a>. The <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/tar-sands-extraction-without-strip-mining/">recovery of this oil consumes nearly threefold its volume in water</a> and leaves behind a slurry of water, solids and organic contaminants as waste. Oilsands operations are into their seventh decade, and more than a <a href="http://www.cec.org/wp-content/uploads/wpallimport/files/17-1-ffr_en.pdf">trillion litres of wastewater now resides in tailings ponds</a>.</p>
<p>But a rapidly growing collective of engineers, scientists, activists and entrepreneurs are delivering some of the biggest gains in environmental remediation in recent decades by blurring the lines between physical, biological and digital sciences. We call ourselves synthetic biologists. </p>
<p>I have extensively contributed to research, education, commercialization and regulation of synthetic biology, including as the founder of Metabolik Technologies, an environmental biotechnology venture, that commercialized a first-of-its-kind, low-energy, low-cost and sustainable solution to decontaminate oilsands tailings ponds. </p>
<h2>A quick guide to synthetic biology</h2>
<p>The underlying premise of synthetic biology is as simple as it is elegant: Nature assembles, dismantles and recycles molecules in the cleanest and most efficient manner imaginable. The unique instructions required to achieve these tasks are found in DNA. </p>
<p>Synthetic biologists investigate natural systems in order to understand these remarkable processes and then use lab-synthesized DNA to reprogram them to perform new tasks or existing tasks more efficiently.</p>
<p>Synthetic biology has been used to improve enzymes, cells and populations of cells for diverse applications <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2020.618373">such as sensing</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2672.2008.03897.x">breaking down hydrocarbons and other “forever chemicals” such as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)</a> in soil and water and <a href="https://doi.org/10.34133/2020/1016207">sequestering carbon dioxide and methane</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/toxic-long-lasting-contaminants-detected-in-people-living-in-northern-canada-141256">Toxic, long-lasting contaminants detected in people living in northern Canada</a>
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<p>Importantly, many of the protagonists and influencers of synthetic biology are the millennials and zoomers who were raised on a steady diet of Saturday morning cartoons. </p>
<h2>Once fiction, now a real solution</h2>
<p>Genetically engineered bacteria that mopped up oil spills were a staple in <a href="https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6l2xj4"><em>Captain Planet and the Planeteers</em></a>, the animated environmental superhero series that launched in 1990. Whereas two decades ago these concepts were confined to the pages of fiction, they are now a reality owing to advances in molecular biology such as CRISPR genome editing and the advent of <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ymben.2017.06.003">fully automated genomic foundries — robotic systems that conduct thousands of experiments a day — for accelerated design-build-test-learn cycles</a>. </p>
<p>Crucially, the successes of synthetic biology in the sphere of environmental remediation have not been one-off demonstrations in academic laboratories. They have been proven in the field at sizeable scales and they have taken large bites out of some of the greatest environmental challenges in the world. </p>
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<img alt="Arial image of Alberta oilsands facility" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407273/original/file-20210618-28-klp34w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407273/original/file-20210618-28-klp34w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407273/original/file-20210618-28-klp34w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407273/original/file-20210618-28-klp34w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407273/original/file-20210618-28-klp34w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407273/original/file-20210618-28-klp34w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407273/original/file-20210618-28-klp34w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Oilsands operations are into their seventh decade, and more than a trillion litres of wastewater now resides in tailings ponds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>Translating innovations to the field</h2>
<p>Tailings ponds contain organic compounds such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.107">naphthenic acid fraction compounds (NAFCs) and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are harmful to aquatic life and human health</a> and are notoriously <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2015.05.062">difficult to eliminate from water</a>. They are also teeming with microbial life. </p>
<p>These microbes do not merely survive, but thrive in the contaminated water. They sense, ingest and metabolize the toxic compounds in the water, albeit at very slow rates. My team at the University of British Columbia and our colleagues at Allonnia isolated and studied the genomics of these unique creatures and, in collaboration with Ginkgo Bioworks, are now increasing their appetite for and metabolism of the toxic compounds. </p>
<p>After validating the performance of the micro-organisms in the field, the UBC-Allonnia team designed some of the largest treatment systems of their kind to achieve the rates and scales needed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tibtech.2020.04.007">to remediate the water</a> within the timeline prescribed in Alberta’s <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/9781460121740">Tailings Management Framework</a>.</p>
<p>We will test our treatment system at the tailings ponds in early 2022 to fine-tune the micro-organisms and the reactors, and assess the risks. Some of these risks include the inefficacy or higher than expected costs of the technology, the potential damage the microbes may cause to the ecosystem and whether regulators and shareholders are comfortable with deploying engineered micro-organisms in the environment. </p>
<p>This small group of synthetic biologists succeeded thanks to the ingenuity of the approach and new models of collaboration. The team also involved oilsands operators, engineering design firms, contract manufacturing companies and regulatory experts who were able to leverage each partner’s strengths to reduce the time, expense and uncertainty of developing a practical solution.</p>
<h2>The fun has only just begun</h2>
<p>Synthetic biologists are only getting started and have now set their sights on a number of similarly large problems. One, in particular, has significant implications for our electric future.</p>
<p>Widespread adoption of <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/experts/luke-tonachel/study-electric-vehicles-can-dramatically-reduce-carbon-pollution">electric vehicles could reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector by nearly 50 per cent</a>. Unfortunately, mining the metals used in electric vehicles damages the environment.</p>
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<p>The manufacture of a single electric vehicle generates 250,000 kilograms of mining waste and 150,000 litres of an <a href="https://unctad.org/news/developing-countries-pay-environmental-cost-electric-car-batteries">extremely toxic liquid called acid rock drainage</a>, a major threat to the environment owing to its potentially <a href="https://www.earthworks.org/issues/acid_mine_drainage/">devastating effect on rivers, streams and aquatic habitats</a>. </p>
<p>Mining is wasteful and unsustainable, and the industry is in desperate need of effective solutions to treat its large bodies of waste. My new start-up company ArqMetal is developing microbial solutions to do away with tailings ponds entirely. If we and others like us are successful, we will eliminate waste, deliver decarbonization, preserve biodiversity, generate employment and achieve equitable social development. Isn’t this <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/climate/green-new-deal-questions-answers.html">what the architects of the Green New Deal had in mind?</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vikramaditya G. Yadav is an Associate Professor in the Department of Chemical & Biological Engineering and the School of Biomedical Engineering and Director of the Master of Engineering Leadership in Sustainable Process Engineering at the University of British Columbia (UBC). He founded Metabolik Technologies Inc. and was its Chief Technology Officer until its recent acquisition by Allonnia, a Bill Gates-backed environmental biotechnology company. He is also the Chief Technology Officer of ArqMetal Mining Solutions Inc., which is developing biotechnological solutions for the mining industry. He also serves on the boards of InMed Pharmaceuticals and Reazent.</span></em></p>Solutions to some of the globe’s most daunting environmental challenges may be closer than you think. Scientists are harnessing nature to clean up toxic chemicals and mining waste.Vikramaditya G. Yadav, Associate Professor of Chemical, Biological & Biomedical Engineering, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1552762021-03-10T17:32:11Z2021-03-10T17:32:11Z‘Blockadia’ helped cancel the Keystone XL pipeline — and could change mainstream environmentalism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388831/original/file-20210310-14-xe73jf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=251%2C99%2C3631%2C1757&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The direct confrontational tactics adopted by environmental activists over the past decade have transformed the global climate movement.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent comment that Canada and the United States <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-meet-the-press-vaccines-saudi-arabia-keystone-1.5931364">will move forward after the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline project</a>, the public debate on the fate of Alberta’s troubled bitumen sector still burns. </p>
<p>Back on Jan. 20, U.S. President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/executive-order-protecting-public-health-and-environment-and-restoring-science-to-tackle-climate-crisis/">reversed the approval of the project</a>, fulfilling one of his election promises. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney called the decision a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/27/alberta-leader-says-bidens-move-to-cancel-keystone-pipeline-a-gut-punch">gut punch</a>.”</p>
<p>For environmental groups, the cancellation of Keystone XL reset American climate policy that had been hit hard by the Trump administration. More crucially, it was a “<a href="https://350.org/press-release/biden-to-stop-keystone-xl/">people-powered victory</a>” following more than 10 years of grassroots action that drew on economic and legal means to stop the pipeline. </p>
<p>Their <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/environmental-groups-keep-fighting-kxl-despite-biden-s-promise-to-block-pipeline-1.5221397">sustained political pressure</a> was a notable contributing factor to Biden’s decision. Many members of the coalition against Keystone XL opted for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10612-015-9289-0">direct confrontational tactics, such as marches, mass arrests, lockdowns and blockades</a> that went beyond the strategies typically used by environmental groups. </p>
<p>Known as “blockadia,” these tactics have transformed the global climate movement in substantive ways — and it may surge once again after COVID-19 lockdowns are relaxed and lifted. </p>
<h2>The rise of blockadia</h2>
<p>Naomi Klein popularized the term “blockadia” in her book <a href="https://naomiklein.org/this-changes-everything/"><em>This Changes Everything</em></a>. She writes that blockadia is the “roving transnational conflict zone […] where ‘regular’ people […] are trying to stop this era of extreme extraction with their bodies or in the courts.” </p>
<p>Beginning with a series of small direct actions that put emphasis on social justice to the environmental movement, <a href="https://www.yesmagazine.org/environment/2013/01/12/welcome-to-blockadia-enbridge-transcanada-tar-sands/">Blockadia was a “web of campaigns” local activists launched against oilsands pipelines, including Keystone XL and the Northern Gateway</a> in the early 2010s. </p>
<p>At the time, other social movements such as <a href="https://www.yesmagazine.org/democracy/2013/01/11/idle-no-more-rises-to-defend-ancestral-lands-and-fight-climate-change-bill-mckibben/">Idle No More</a> were also using confrontational tactics to stop the flow of fossil fuels and disrupt the business-as-usual mode preferred by many big corporations. The movement established a new paradigm in mainstream North American environmentalism. </p>
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<img alt="A large group of people gather in the snow holding the flags of Indigenous nations." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388825/original/file-20210310-19-1qb4gxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388825/original/file-20210310-19-1qb4gxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388825/original/file-20210310-19-1qb4gxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388825/original/file-20210310-19-1qb4gxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388825/original/file-20210310-19-1qb4gxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388825/original/file-20210310-19-1qb4gxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388825/original/file-20210310-19-1qb4gxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Military veterans and Indigenous elders stop for a ceremonial prayer during a march to a spot near the Dakota Access oil pipeline site in Cannon Ball, N.D., in December 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David Goldman)</span></span>
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<p>Conventional environmental campaigns are marked by eye-catching celebrity environmentalism, advocacy activities targeting law makers and “not in my backyard” movements motivated by local concerns. Although blockadia has incorporated these strategies, the spread and success of it indicates three major developments. </p>
<p>First, participants of blockadia think more in terms of <a href="https://eeb.org/blockadia-map-reveals-global-rise-of-anti-fossil-fuel-blockades/">what is legitimate than what is legal</a>. Consequently, confrontational tactics and civil disobedience actions are legitimized by an “us versus them” framing. Blockadia is mobilized by a sense of planetary emergency, further radicalizing environmentalism.</p>
<p>Second, blockadia strives to combine environmental and social justice concerns. This is arguably why movements under this umbrella term have led to the formation of unexpected political coalitions. Consider, for instance, the <a href="https://truthout.org/articles/cowboy-indian-solidarity-challenges-the-keystone-xl/">alliance of ranchers and Indigenous communities formed during the fight against Keystone XL</a>, as well as the solidarity with the Idle No More movement <a href="https://doi.org/10.22230/cjc.2015v40n4a2958">non-Indigenous peoples have expressed on social media</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fridaysforfuture-when-youth-push-the-environmental-movement-towards-climate-justice-115694">#Fridaysforfuture: When youth push the environmental movement towards climate justice</a>
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<p>Third, blockadia is decentralized. Despite outspoken activists like Naomi Klein and Bill McKibben, small local organizations brought together by shared environmental concerns drive the success of blockadia. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2015.1105177">Social media</a> played a crucial role in coalition-building among these organizations. </p>
<p>In the case of transnational resistance to Keystone XL, organizations such as <a href="https://actionnetwork.org/groups/nokxl-promise-to-protect">the Promise to Protect coalition</a> are fighting together for globally minded local concerns. Their opposition is motivated by a range of things, from the threat of potential spills or the risk to local waterways, but they are all aware of the global implications of their local actions. In the words of environmental researcher <a href="https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/search/publication/8982818">Meike Vedder</a>, the rise of blockadia indicates a shift from “not in my backyard” to “not on my planet.” </p>
<h2>The future of environmental activism</h2>
<p>The collective efforts of diverse groups have not only contributed to the delays and cancellations of high-profile pipeline projects like Keystone XL and Northern Gateway, they have been growing around the globe as well. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/ca/podcasts">Click here to listen to Don’t Call Me Resilient</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://ejatlas.org/">The Environmental Justice Atlas project</a>, launched in 2015, has documented over 3,000 environmental conflicts around the globe. Many of them echo blockadia’s populist, pro-democractic push for fossil fuel divestment and a “just transition.” </p>
<p>Whether blockadia is able to fundamentally shift the dynamics of mainstream environmentalism remains uncertain. It will depend on the ability of blockadia-inspired actions to transform local concerns into broader quests for environmental and social justice. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-support-for-ambitious-climate-action-in-4-steps-155636">How to build support for ambitious climate action in 4 steps</a>
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<p>The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18922-7">temporarily decreased global carbon dioxide emissions</a> and prompted ongoing public conversations on “<a href="https://www.resilientrecovery.ca/">resilient recovery</a>.” Blockadia could bounce back when lockdown measures are lifted. </p>
<p>The key lesson offered by the Keystone XL cancellation to Canadian energy politics is: if policies won’t address populist demands for radical departure from subsidizing the oil and gas sector, the public anger on climate inaction will carry on. Although blockadia began as an anti-Keystone XL campaign, it is likely to continue to disrupt the established policy discussions on Canada’s commitment to taking action on climate change. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sibo Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A web of local environmental action campaigns launched against oilsands pipelines a decade ago helped bring an end to Keystone XL.Sibo Chen, Assistant Professor, School of Professional Communication, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481582020-12-09T21:41:47Z2020-12-09T21:41:47ZHow plants can help clean up oilsands tailing ponds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373131/original/file-20201204-23-1vjxo3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C12%2C1632%2C1259&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oilsands tailings are a mixture of water, suspended sand, clay and residual bitumen.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Dan Prat/Canva)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For every barrel of bitumen extracted in Alberta, about <a href="https://www.pembinainstitute.org/reports/oilsands-metrics.pdf">1.5 barrels of non-recyclable tailings volume are produced</a>. In 2019 alone, an estimated <a href="https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/projects/bitumen-production">1.5 million barrels of tailings were produced</a>, which would take <a href="https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/technical/mining/tailings-ponds">five to 10 years</a> to cleanup and return to the landscape. </p>
<p>As of 2017, more than <a href="http://osip.alberta.ca/map/">1.2 billion cubic metres of fluid tailings have accumulated</a> in the northern Alberta boreal forest region, enough to bury the city of Edmonton under more than 1.8 metres of fluid waste material. </p>
<p>Tailings represent the largest liability for the oilsands. An investigation by the Alberta Energy Regulator estimates the total cleanup costs of oilsands mining operations facilities is around $130 billion and <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/11/23/news/alberta-officials-are-signalling-they-have-no-idea-how-clean-toxic-oilsands-tailings">critics have voiced concerns that an economic downturn could see these costs dropped on the shoulders of taxpayers</a>.</p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://www.capp.ca/explore/land-reclamation/">oilsands operators remain committed</a> to restoring the boreal forests that have been disturbed by mining activities. As a research scientist who studies remediation and biotechnology, I work with industry and collaborators to develop solutions that will help cleanup the vast quantity of tailings currently stored in the oilsands region, including nature-based approaches to reclamation.</p>
<h2>Why is reclamation so challenging?</h2>
<p>Oilsands tailings are a mixture of water, suspended sand, clay and residual bitumen. They are the byproduct of treating crushed ore with hot water to release the trapped bitumen.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="alttext" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373132/original/file-20201204-23-1qm94mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373132/original/file-20201204-23-1qm94mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373132/original/file-20201204-23-1qm94mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373132/original/file-20201204-23-1qm94mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373132/original/file-20201204-23-1qm94mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373132/original/file-20201204-23-1qm94mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373132/original/file-20201204-23-1qm94mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oilsands tailings being pumped into a tailings pond in Alberta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Francis Black/Canva)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The tailings are stored in ponds, where the heavier material quickly settles to the bottom, freeing up water to be reused in the extraction process. The remaining fine solids, such as clay, continue to settle and increase in density until the material is dry enough to use in the reclaimed landscape — <a href="https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/technical/mining/tailings-ponds">a process that can take up to 150 years if left untreated</a>.</p>
<p>A shell of water forms around the clay particles, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1081/LFT-120003695">preventing them from interacting and allowing them to remain suspended</a>, even as larger particles settle. This suspension can be thin, like chocolate milk, or thick, like pudding. The water must be removed so that the material can be used to fill empty mining pits and support the weight of the clean sand and topsoil needed to reclaim the landscape. You can’t plant a forest on a foundation of pudding.</p>
<p>If the buried tailings are too fluid, the ground will be unstable. Several technologies are currently used to remove water from tailings such as water-separating polymers and giant centrifuges, however, these are not cost effective given the immense volume of stored tailings and still may not remove enough water for reclamation. </p>
<h2>Nature-based solutions</h2>
<p>Over the past 20 years, scientists have made considerable progress researching how nature can help solve human-caused problems such as land disturbances. This includes several studies evaluating <a href="https://doi.org/10.21000/JASMR98010104">plant growth on oilsands tailings</a> and the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267248898_Evapotranspiration_dewatering_effect_on_CT_deposits_by_grasses">potential to use plants</a> to address the <a href="https://alfalfagreen.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Done-Suncor-Paper-2011.pdf">tailings volume problem</a>. </p>
<p>Plants are highly effective at pulling trapped water from the subsurface and releasing it to the environment in a process called evapotranspiration. For example, <a href="https://clu-in.org/download/techdrct/td_hoffnagle-phytoremediation.pdf">poplars growing in soil have been reported to transpire between six litres and 757 litres of water per day</a>, depending on the size and condition of the tree. However, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27177137/">tailings are not particularly hospitable to plant growth as they can lack nutrients such as nitrogen</a> and often <a href="https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/5676110f-0176-4e24-934f-bac38d9123b7">contain hydrocarbons, naphthenic acids, salts and heavy metals</a>. </p>
<p>Oilsands operators strive to avoid introducing non-native plant species to northern Alberta to avoid further disruption to the ecosystem. This limits the selection of plants to hardy boreal species, which often don’t share the same vigour as the fast-growing, invasive species. Research suggests, however, that the addition of plant growth-promoting supplements may help overcome some of the challenges faced by native species. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="aerial view of bog and boreal forest, with a twisting creek running through it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373133/original/file-20201204-13-i836s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373133/original/file-20201204-13-i836s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373133/original/file-20201204-13-i836s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373133/original/file-20201204-13-i836s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373133/original/file-20201204-13-i836s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373133/original/file-20201204-13-i836s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/373133/original/file-20201204-13-i836s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists are evaluating new plant-based technologies that could help remove water from tailings to make them suitable to help rebuild the boreal forest in northern Alberta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jason V/Canva)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://cosia.ca/sites/default/files/attachments/2019%20Tailings%20Research%20Report_FINAL.pdf">In a recent industry-funded study</a>, which is pending publication in a peer-reviewed journal, we found that combining a protein-rich compound called hydrochar with a collection of different types of bacteria increased the nutrients available to the plants, including nitrogen, and promoted their growth on tailings. </p>
<p>The more the plants grew, the drier — and more solid — the tailings became. After 3.5 months, the plants had not only dried out the tailings, they had enriched them with organic material such as root fibres, and improved the structure of the tailings solids by secreting organic molecules. The end result were <a href="https://sites.google.com/a/ualberta.ca/iostc2018/home/Collins%20et%20al%20-%20DEVELOPMENT%20OF%20BACTERIAL%20INOCULUM%20FOR%20THE%20PROMOTION%20OF%20PLANT%20GROWTH%20ON%20TAILINGS%20MATERIAL.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1">tailings that looked more like soil than dried clay</a>. </p>
<p>This proof-of-concept study was limited to a large, outdoor greenhouse experiment, but the concept has gained momentum within the wider industry. Field trials are targeted for 2023 where native boreal plant species would be used to dry tailings in a small, experimental tailings pit prior to reclamation. Operators are also funding research that uses drones and floating islands to look at how to deploy seedlings on tailings pits being prepared for closure. </p>
<p>While there is still work to be done before the oilsands industry can use plants to remove the water from tailings, there’s still a lot of potential. A plant-based remediation strategy is a passive technology, making it a potentially cost-effective tool that could ease the liability risk faced by oilsands operators and Canadians by increasing the speed of reclamation in the oilsands region.</p>
<p><em>This is a corrected version of a story originally published on Dec. 9. The earlier story said the volume of fluid tailings could bury Alberta, instead of the city of Edmonton.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Collins receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and oilsands operators. She conducts research in collaboration with oilsands operators. </span></em></p>A new nature-based approach to managing oilsands tailings shows promise in the lab and may soon be tested in the field.Victoria Collins, Research associate, Applied BioNanotechnoloy Industrial Research group, Northern Alberta Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1497942020-11-11T15:50:39Z2020-11-11T15:50:39ZWhat Joe Biden’s climate plan means for Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368400/original/file-20201109-23-9q4xpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5395%2C3368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden speaks about climate change and wildfires affecting western states on Sept. 14, 2020, in Wilmington, Del.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The crucial words came during the second United States presidential debate on Oct. 22. In a discussion about climate change and energy, Democratic candidate <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/biden-clarifies-oil-comments-after-vowing-to-transition-to-renewable-energy/2020/10/23/6a777e38-fcaf-4e33-88ab-e17b1bdf9f5f_video.html">Joe Biden declared that he would lead a transition to renewable energy</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I would transition from the oil industry, yes.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He also promised to eliminate federal subsidies to the oil industry and move to net-zero emissions by 2050. President Donald Trump, sensing a major blunder by his opponent, called on voters in Pennsylvania, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio to vote against Biden’s energy plans.</p>
<p>The moment was noteworthy because it highlighted the new political importance of climate change and energy policy in U.S. politics. The Democratic candidate, now the president-elect, enthusiastically committed to taking action on climate change and energy transition. What’s equally significant is that Biden’s strong climate change position doesn’t appear to have hurt him in the key swing state of Pennsylvania or in the general election more broadly. </p>
<h2>Serious climate plan</h2>
<p>Although Biden’s <a href="https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/">climate plan</a> is not as ambitious as the Green New Deal advocated by the left of the Democratic Party, his plans are serious. </p>
<p>He has called for a “Clean Energy Revolution” that includes mandatory emission cuts from electric utilities and support for electric vehicles. An interesting aspect of his overall plan is a commitment to spend at least 40 per cent of funds in historically disadvantaged areas.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-stance-against-fossil-fuels-didnt-turn-away-voters-in-pennsylvania-and-other-key-states-148891">Biden’s stance against fossil fuels didn't turn away voters in Pennsylvania and other key states</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Biden’s energy revolution will be limited by several factors, however.</p>
<p>His efforts will be constrained by the Democrats’ <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/senate-2020/">failure so far to win the Senate</a> — two runoff elections in Georgia in early January will determine what party controls the chamber — combined with continued opposition from the fossil fuel industry and communities dependent upon fossil fuels.</p>
<h2>Implications for Canada</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, Biden can be expected to move ahead in response to climate science and pressure by some of his key constituencies, such as young people and progressives. This has significant implications for Canada and Canadians.</p>
<p>Any Canadians hoping for U.S. government support for the ongoing expansion of Canada’s fossil fuel infrastructure are likely going to be disappointed. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-keystone-xl-and-a-green-new-deal-could-shake-up-canadas-energy-industry-139362">Biden, Keystone XL and a Green New Deal could shake up Canada's energy industry</a>
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<hr>
<p>An example of this is the Keystone XL pipeline. Designed to bring Canadian oilsands bitumen to American refineries, its approvals were halted by former president Barack Obama in 2015 and renewed by Trump. </p>
<p>Although the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7434680/keystone-pipeline-joe-biden-oregan/">Alberta and Canadian governments continue to champion the project</a>, Biden has said he will <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/biden-kxl-interview-1.5580115">cancel regulatory authorization</a>, declaring that the U.S. has no need for oilsands crude.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People hold signs against the Keystone XL pipeline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368455/original/file-20201110-20-1majtpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368455/original/file-20201110-20-1majtpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368455/original/file-20201110-20-1majtpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368455/original/file-20201110-20-1majtpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368455/original/file-20201110-20-1majtpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368455/original/file-20201110-20-1majtpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368455/original/file-20201110-20-1majtpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Opponents of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada are seen demonstrating in sub-freezing temperatures on in October 2019 in Billings, Mont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matthew Brown)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Politically, this is a relatively painless action for Biden to burnish his climate change credentials. Canadian government and industry arguments about the need for more pipelines face an uphill battle. </p>
<h2>More competition</h2>
<p>A second implication is that Canadian industry can expect to see more competition from U.S. firms climbing on the climate change bandwagon. American companies will ramp up clean energy technologies and products. The question is whether Canadian-based industry will be up to the challenge and receive adequate government support. </p>
<p>There is some indication that even some of the most anti-environmental politicians are slowly starting to recognize the urgency to take climate action. Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-carbon-tax-tv-advertising-cost-1.5385148">vigorously campaigned against any form of a carbon tax</a> and rolled back measures supporting renewable energy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Justin Trudeau speaks at a news conference while Doug Ford appears on a screen beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368466/original/file-20201110-14-1qyst6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368466/original/file-20201110-14-1qyst6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368466/original/file-20201110-14-1qyst6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368466/original/file-20201110-14-1qyst6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368466/original/file-20201110-14-1qyst6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368466/original/file-20201110-14-1qyst6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368466/original/file-20201110-14-1qyst6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in a news conference at the Ford Connectivity and Innovation Centre in Ottawa in October 2020, joined virtually from Oakville by Ontario Premier Doug Ford.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet he also recently <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/58736/historic-ford-canada-investment-transforming-ontario-into-global-electric-vehicle-manufacturing-hub">committed $295 million</a> to the Ford car company for its plans to build electric vehicles in Ontario. </p>
<p>This realization of the significant economic opportunities offered by green technologies opens up the door to a more evidence-based discussion of how public policy can support both a green economy and economic growth.</p>
<h2>Managing the energy transition</h2>
<p>A third implication is that Canada needs to have a serious <a href="https://davidsuzuki.org/press/renewable-energy-viewed-as-most-acceptable-pathway-in-canadas-energy-transition-say-experts/">discussion about how we can manage an energy transition</a> to renewable fuels just as Biden is pledging to do south of the border. </p>
<p>The transition is coming. The question is whether Canada will turn it into an opportunity to clean our air and environment, or make the transition more difficult by delaying action and spending vast sums to maintain fossil fuel production and employment. </p>
<p>The energy transition is a challenge facing all countries, but it will be particularly difficult for Canada because so much of our economy and large regions of our country are heavily dependent on the exploitation of fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Assistance for affected communities and industries is vital, but at the moment, many politicians are more comfortable denying the necessity and inevitability of the changes that are coming.</p>
<h2>Emulate Biden plan</h2>
<p>A final implication is that programs designed to help Canadians transition to clean energy should take a leaf out of the Biden plan and <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/who-is-included-just-transition">target assistance to communities that have been historically disadvantaged</a> by industrialization and fossil fuel development. </p>
<p>Indigenous communities that have been marginalized and harmed by other people’s exploitation of natural resources, as well as racialized and poor communities exposed to dangerous environmental risks, need to be integrated into clean energy spending.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People walk through a forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368473/original/file-20201110-20-1jj5bcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368473/original/file-20201110-20-1jj5bcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368473/original/file-20201110-20-1jj5bcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368473/original/file-20201110-20-1jj5bcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368473/original/file-20201110-20-1jj5bcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368473/original/file-20201110-20-1jj5bcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368473/original/file-20201110-20-1jj5bcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People pause in a forested area along the Brunette River where trees are to be felled as part of Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, during a guided tour in Burnaby, B.C., in August 2020, led by Indigenous leaders and environmental groups.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The president-elect is committed to moving on the issue of climate change. Important parts of his electoral coalition are also adamant that he oversee a transition to renewable energy. Equally important, his policies reflect the overwhelming <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">scientific evidence</a> that aggressive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is required to avoid serious economic and social consequences. </p>
<p>Can Canada respond similarly?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert O'Brien has received funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is a member of the Green Party.</span></em></p>Biden’s strong climate change position doesn’t appear to have hurt him in the key swing state of Pennsylvania or in the general election more broadly. Here’s what it means for Canada.Robert O'Brien, Professor of Political Science, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1478182020-10-27T14:30:20Z2020-10-27T14:30:20ZThe risk of ‘peak oil demand’ for Canada’s Conservatives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365300/original/file-20201023-13-18eaiy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5245%2C3258&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole holds his first news conference as leader on Parliament Hill in Ottawa in August 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s no secret that the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) is the energy sector’s greatest ally in federal politics. The party’s opposition to carbon pricing and support for just about anything that increases the ease at which energy producers can extract, refine and transport oil has made the CPC overwhelmingly popular among voters <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-federal-election-2019-conservative-sweep-of-alberta-illustrates-deep/">in Alberta</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-conservative-win-1.5330084">and Saskatchewan</a>.</p>
<p>As long as non-renewable resources remain an important engine of economic growth and employment in Canada, the federal Conservatives may very well remain competitive. If, however, we are truly approaching <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7333595/opec-oil-demand-forecast-bp-2020/#:%7E:text=BP%20says%20it%20expects%20demand,report%20on%20the%20industry's%20outlook.">peak global demand</a> for oil, the CPC may need to rethink its electoral strategy. What that strategy might be is anyone’s guess.</p>
<p>Federal parties <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/electoral-system-and-the-party-system-in-canada-19211965/713613A87E6A3C40A15F7B4452696A07">rely on regional bases</a> of party support. The dominance of the Liberal Party of Canada over the 20th century, for example, is often understood to be a direct result of the party’s ability to leverage its electoral strength east of the Ottawa River to compensate for its volatile and ephemeral support in western Canada. </p>
<p>The Conservatives, on the other hand, have typically dominated in western Canada, winning elections when the Liberals perform poorly in Ontario and Québec.</p>
<p>A quick glance at recent federal election results by province illustrates the Conservatives’ narrow base of support. In each federal election since 2006, the CPC has won at least 85 per cent of seats in Alberta, 71 per cent of seats in Saskatchewan and a plurality of seats in British Columbia. </p>
<h2>Western popularity</h2>
<p>Though support for the CPC seems to be on the decline in British Columbia, this could not be further from the truth in Alberta and Saskatchewan. <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/results/">In 2019</a>, for example, the Conservative Party won 33 of 34 seats in Alberta, and swept all 14 seats in Saskatchewan. So why is the CPC so popular in these provinces?</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1297762038169473025"}"></div></p>
<p>Most indicators point to their position on Canada’s resource sector. Chastising the governing Liberals for imposing a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-conservative-climate-change-carbon-tax-1.5330934">carbon tax</a>, implementing more stringent <a href="https://financialpost.com/news/election-2019/how-a-liberal-or-conservative-win-could-affect-canadas-economy">regulations on pipeline developments</a> and, more recently, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/canada-banning-plastic-bags-straws-cutlery-and-other-single-use-items-by-the-end-of-2021-1.5135968">banning single-use plastics</a> at the expense of Alberta’s petrochemical industry, the Conservatives have explicitly branded themselves as the resource sector’s only friend in Ottawa.</p>
<p>As long as the CPC is able to capture at least a third of seats in Ontario and the Liberals don’t sweep Québec — a reasonable possibility at any given point in time — the Conservatives should remain competitive. So what’s the problem?</p>
<p>If global demand for oil and gas rebounds and remains robust into the future, the CPC might not have a problem. Increasingly, however, this future looks unlikely. </p>
<h2>An earlier than expected peak?</h2>
<p>Recent reports commissioned by the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-iea-calls-for-profound-changes-as-energy-growth-set-to-end/">International Energy Agency</a>, the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-opec-sees-oil-demand-plateauing-in-late-2030s-marking-a-major-shift/">Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries</a>, and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/14/global-oil-demand-may-have-passed-peak-says-bp-energy-report">British oil and gas multinational, BP</a>, have all indicated that global demand for oil could peak sooner than previously imagined. </p>
<p>Depending on several factors — such as the medium- to long-term impact of COVID-19, as well as the speed at which governments adopt clean energy policies — global demand for oil should peak sometime between the early 2020s and early 2030s. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pumpjack is seen surrounded by a golden wheat field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365301/original/file-20201023-21-18pj20n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365301/original/file-20201023-21-18pj20n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365301/original/file-20201023-21-18pj20n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365301/original/file-20201023-21-18pj20n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365301/original/file-20201023-21-18pj20n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365301/original/file-20201023-21-18pj20n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365301/original/file-20201023-21-18pj20n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An oil and gas pumpjack near Cremona, Alta., is seen in the middle of wheat field on Oct. 1, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Combined with the COVID-19 pandemic and government policies to reduce our dependence on non-renewable energy, the growing environmental movement that swept across the globe before the coronavirus may shift private investments away from oil and gas toward emerging clean energy technologies. </p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/27/climate-crisis-6-million-people-join-latest-wave-of-worldwide-protests">international climate protests</a> and long-lasting <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6540264/pipeline-protests-railways-stress/">pipeline blockades</a> are not good for business.</p>
<h2>Not necessarily doomed</h2>
<p>This is not to say that the Conservatives are doomed in the near future; <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/energy-and-economy/20062">in 2019</a>, the energy sector directly employed nearly 300,000 people and indirectly supported over 550,000 jobs, including jobs in renewables. If, however, investment in Canada’s oil and gas sector continues to decline — as it has since the end of the commodity boom in 2014 — the number of Canadians with a vested interest in the energy sector may decline with it.</p>
<p>Barring the possibility that current forecasts of the oil sector’s future are completely off base, the CPC will be forced to rebuild its brand. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, it doesn’t appear as though they’ll be able to win by casting themselves as the party of fiscal discipline or the most competent managers of the economy. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pierre Poilievre shouts in the House of Commons." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365302/original/file-20201023-17-1swq72f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pierre Poilievre’s attempts to criticize the Liberals’ financial management prowess is largely falling on deaf ears.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite Conservative finance critic <a href="https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-becoming-atm-for-trudeau-conservatives-caution">Pierre Poilievre’s efforts</a> to cast the Liberals as profligate and incompetent managers of the economy, he seems to be swimming against the current. In the midst of historically low interest rates — along with indications that they will not be rising anytime soon — <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/angrynomics/9781788212793">economists</a> and <a href="https://www.osler.com/en/about-us/press-room/2020/bank-of-canada-is-close-to-its-policy-limits-poloz-says-financial-post-bloomberg">central bankers</a> continue to urge governments not to worry about deficit spending to stimulate the economy. </p>
<p>In fact, the very people known to be most concerned about public finances are telling politicians that, in the words of <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-u-s-economy-needs-more-fiscal-support-11601995205">Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell</a>, governments should err on the side of providing too much fiscal support rather than too little.</p>
<p>Though it may be time for the CPC to rethink its brand, it’s far from clear what it should be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Abbott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent industry reports indicate that we may be approaching peak global demand for oil. If that’s the case, the federal Conservatives may need to rethink their electoral strategy.Christopher Abbott, PhD Candidate in Political Studies, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1446282020-09-16T20:36:57Z2020-09-16T20:36:57ZNew technology makes wastewater from the oilsands industry safer for fish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357071/original/file-20200908-20-imarat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C888%2C4651%2C2133&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scarecrows float in an oilsands tailings pond to keep birds from landing, in Fort McMurray, Alta., in June 2017</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the northeastern corner of Alberta, nestled among the expanses of forests and wetlands, lies a major freshwater dilemma that Canada is currently facing. </p>
<p>Just down the river from Fort McMurray, massive ponds stretch for miles, filled with toxic water. </p>
<p>For decades, the Canadian oilsands industry has been filling these ponds with wastewater from oil extraction. The purpose of these ponds is to store and reuse water, in order to reduce the amount of new water taken from the nearby Athabasca River. </p>
<p>The reuse of water for oil extraction causes tailings ponds to accumulate higher and higher concentrations of harmful contaminants. As such, the water in these tailings ponds is dangerous, and often lethal, to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2005.09.013">birds</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2015.08.022">fish</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.5620191027">frogs</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/22.17.1265">plants</a>. </p>
<p>Currently, there is enough sludge-like water to fill <a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/340-billion-gallons-of-sludge-spur-environmental-fears-in-canada">half a million Olympic-sized swimming pools</a> — and this volume continues to increase. This huge amount of wastewater has recently prompted Alberta regulators to rethink tailings pond management. </p>
<p>A new policy direction in Alberta allows — for the first time — the controlled release of water from tailings ponds <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/9781460121740">to the environment</a>. Tailings ponds will be eliminated within a certain time frame, reducing the liability of having these toxic waterbodies remain on our landscape indefinitely.</p>
<p>New regulations, which come into effect in 2022, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ottawa-and-alberta-to-set-rules-for-releasing-treated-water-by-oil/">allow oilsands companies to release 1.3 trillion litres of liquid waste into the Athabasca River</a>. These plans, along with the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alta-oilsands-monitoring-1.5673433">newly loosened regulations for environmental monitoring in Alberta</a>, raise concerns about potential harm to wildlife and people living downstream of oilsands development.</p>
<p>Wastewater from the oilsands must undergo treatment processes before it can be released. Clearly, finding technologies that can safely and efficiently clean up this wastewater is a pressing environmental and human health priority. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0053">We tested a promising new technology — titanium dioxide microparticles — that is cost-effective, sustainable and efficient for cleaning up wastewater from the oilsands in Alberta</a>. </p>
<h2>A new green technology</h2>
<p>Titanium dioxide is a common ingredient in many household products such as toothpaste and sunscreen. When placed on microparticles — tiny round objects made of glass — titanium dioxide can break down organic chemicals in oilsands wastewater. The technology can degrade chemicals with remarkable efficiency: in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020202">less than 24 hours during lab tests</a>. </p>
<p>The technology is recyclable and can be used multiple times. The microparticles float on the surface of water, making them easy to collect by skimming the surface water, and then reuse. In addition, the technology uses the energy of the sun, making it a more sustainable option compared to more energy-intensive methods. </p>
<p>Using sunlight energy, the technology creates treatment chemicals, known as radicals, from the water itself. These radicals break down the toxic organic chemicals, theoretically leaving clean water. However, we did not know if the technology reduces the toxicity of oilsands chemicals to living organisms, and so our research team set out to answer this question.</p>
<h2>Does it actually work?</h2>
<p>The ultimate test of any wastewater treatment is whether the treated products are safe for plants and animals. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0053">And so, we tested if titanium dioxide microparticles can “blast apart” toxic organic chemicals in tailings ponds — called naphthenic acids — leaving water clean for fish</a>. First, we diluted naphthenic acids to concentrations that are found in Alberta’s tailings ponds and treated them with titanium dioxide. Then, we exposed fish to these treated and untreated chemicals to see how well the technology worked.</p>
<p>What we found was fascinating. Unsurprisingly, naphthenic acids from oilsands wastewater that received no treatment were highly toxic to fish. When fish eggs were exposed to the untreated naphthenic acids, most of the eggs died before they could hatch.</p>
<p>When the naphthenic acids were treated, however, the immediate lethal effects were almost completely gone. The technology drastically increased survival of fish eggs. </p>
<p>These results are exciting, because they mean the titanium dioxide technology could potentially be used to clean up tailings ponds in Alberta. However, we also found some important information about the technology that must be considered before it can be used practically. </p>
<p>The titanium dioxide technology can be used at different intensities for cleaning the water in tailings ponds. Depending on the level of treatment, different amounts of the toxic chemicals in the wastewater get broken down. </p>
<p>In our tests, it was only when at least 80 per cent of the chemicals were broken down that the treated water was not outright lethal to fish. When naphthenic acids were only partially broken down by the treatment, we actually saw that sublethal effects, like misshapen hearts, may even increase. This means that unless the wastewater is treated thoroughly, it can still be harmful to fish.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A fish with a lump on its back." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357072/original/file-20200908-18-1yjyz7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357072/original/file-20200908-18-1yjyz7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357072/original/file-20200908-18-1yjyz7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357072/original/file-20200908-18-1yjyz7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357072/original/file-20200908-18-1yjyz7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357072/original/file-20200908-18-1yjyz7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357072/original/file-20200908-18-1yjyz7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research published in 2010 found deformed white fish caught in Lake Athabasca, near Fort Chipewyan, downstream from Alberta’s oilsands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, if this technology is used in Alberta, tailings must be intensively treated, or we run the risk of causing harm to wildlife. </p>
<p>Our research has shown that titanium dioxide microparticles are a promising technology for cleaning up the massive volumes of wastewater in Alberta’s tailings ponds. But more research still needs to be conducted, particularly studies that test the safety of this technology on different species and life stages and on more complex ecological endpoints. </p>
<p>Finally, our research serves as a warning that improper treatment of oilsands wastewater prior to its release to the environment may lead to unintended ecological consequences. </p>
<h2>Where do we go from here?</h2>
<p>There is no doubt that wastewater produced and stored by the Canadian oilsands industry is a massive and complicated issue. Though it is well established that tailings ponds pose a substantial liability to wildlife and environmental health, we have yet to see much progress in the clean-up process. <a href="https://www.aer.ca/regulating-development/rules-and-directives/directives/directive-085.html">A new policy direction in Alberta has shifted toward the elimination of tailings ponds</a>, but it is unclear if we have the proper regulations and monitoring programs to execute this elimination safely. </p>
<p>This is not a problem that is going away anytime soon. A substantial, long-term investment - both provincially and federally - must be made in research, regulations and environmental monitoring programs regarding the plan to intentionally release oilsands wastewater if we are serious about remedying the toxic legacy of tailings ponds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diane Orihel received funding for this research from Queen's University (Queen's Research Opportunities Fund) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (Grant and Contribution).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessie Reynolds receives student stipends from Queen's University (R.S. McLaughlin Graduate Fellowship and Queen's Graduate Award). </span></em></p>New regulations will allow oilsands companies to release 1.3 trillion litres of liquid waste into the Athabasca River in 2022. A new technology could clean the wastewater before it’s let go.Diane Orihel, Assistant Professor, School of Environmental Studies, Queen's University, OntarioJessie Reynolds, MSc Candidate in the Department of Biology, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1320772020-08-06T15:56:45Z2020-08-06T15:56:45ZWhy scientists intentionally spilled oil into a Canadian lake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351162/original/file-20200804-22-1pmotza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=702%2C185%2C4444%2C3109&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oil from a ruptured pipeline is vacuumed from a creek near the near the Kalamazoo River in Michigan, July 2010.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada sits on the <a href="https://www.capp.ca/energy/canadas-energy-mix/">third-largest oil reserve in the world</a>. Most of it is in the Alberta oilsands, where companies extract bitumen, a crude oil with the consistency of peanut butter. </p>
<p>To get the oil to pass through pipelines, petroleum engineers mix the oil with lighter components — usually byproducts of natural gas production — to dilute and liquefy the bitumen. This mixture is called “diluted bitumen” or dilbit for short.</p>
<p>Alberta is landlocked. To reach refineries and the international market, dilbit is transported through a network of pipelines and railways over vast stretches of land, riddled with lakes, rivers and wetlands.</p>
<p>But oil pipelines can leak or rupture, and spill their contents into the environment. In July 2010, for example, an Enbridge pipeline in Marshall, Mich., <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-06/documents/enbridge_fs_201308.pdf">spilled at least three million litres of dilbit into the Kalamazoo River</a>, of which an estimated 680,000 litres sank.</p>
<p>The issues of inland spills aren’t new. They are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01813.x">more common than marine spills</a> but often overlooked or unreported. Generally, we know much less about how oil spills affect freshwater ecosystems than the ocean and, <a href="https://www.rsc-src.ca/sites/default/files/OIW%20Report_1.pdf">when it comes to dilbit spills, we know even less</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dragongly trapped in oil" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351393/original/file-20200805-356-1njhtah.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A captive adult dragonfly trapped in the sticky surface slick of Canadian diluted bitumen from a controlled experimental oil spill in a boreal lake located in Northwestern Ontario during the summer of 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jeffrey Cederwall)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To find out, our research team carefully spilled dilbit into mini-lakes to uncover the real-world responses of the oil and its impact on aquatic life. </p>
<h2>Recreating a freshwater oil spill</h2>
<p>We created mini-lakes with 1,400 litre tanks, filled with lake sediment, water and the natural community of microscopic plankton retrieved from a lake on the Canadian boreal shield. We then spilled a scaled-down volume of dilbit — less than two litres — into the “lake.” </p>
<p>We left the tanks exposed to sunlight, temperature changes and weather while we monitored the viscosity and density of the oil slick on the surface of the water. These parameters are important for understanding when the oil might sink and how it can be cleaned up. We also tracked the oil beneath the surface, its chemical composition and its impact on the plankton living there. </p>
<p>Crude oil floats because it is less dense than water, allowing spilled oil to be skimmed off the water surface. But this isn’t always true for heavy Canadian crude oil. </p>
<p>Dilbit can sink under certain conditions, such as a turbulent river with a lot of suspended sediment and other particles. These particles can bind to the oil and make it denser, as happened on the Kalamazoo River in 2010. </p>
<p>Past research using wave tanks has suggested <a href="https://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/050/documents/p21799/85785E.pdf">dilbit would not sink</a> in a lake. Other studies in test tubes have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2017.10.156">dilbit can sink</a>, but only when vigorously mixed with much more suspended sediment than what is typically experienced in nature.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4600">Our research</a> showed that after only one day, dilbit became too viscous for conventional cleanup methods to perform well. When it rained eight days after our experimental spill, the dilbit slicks broke up and about half of them sank to the sediment in these mini-lakes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Experimental oil spill containers on day 0 and day 8" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351416/original/file-20200805-22-vlugtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison of the dilbit surface slick on Day 0 (left) and Day 8 (right). Left: The freshly added dilbit initially covers the water surface as a smooth slick. Right: Overtime the dilbit slick grew thicker, developed a surface crust and changed colour. Following heavy rain, roughly half the oil sank to the bottom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(BOREAL Study 2017)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Implications for oil spill cleanup</h2>
<p>After an oil spill into water, cleanup crews use booms, skimmers and sometimes even fire to remove the spilled oil from the water’s surface. None of this is possible if the oil sinks.</p>
<p>To clean up sunken oil, the submerged oil and sediment must be dug up. This invasive removal is both expensive and may further harm an ecosystem by removing entire communities living in the sediment and re-suspending oil back to the water column. Sinking substantially <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20120626/dilbit-diluted-bitumen-enbridge-kalamazoo-river-marshall-michigan-oil-spill-6b-pipeline-epa">increases the cleanup costs</a> and timelines and reduces recovery.</p>
<p>If the spilled dilbit gets too viscous, conventional skimmers don’t work well, but if it gets too dense it sinks.</p>
<p>Our results show that dilbit can sink in lakes given enough time, and highlight the need to consider different weather scenarios in risk assessments.</p>
<h2>Life under an oil slick</h2>
<p>Plankton are microscopic organisms that form the base of the food web that supports fish populations. They are also quite sensitive to environmental changes, such as a dilbit spill, making them an ideal group to study.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0224">We found</a> that dilbit spills reduced the overall amount of the zooplankton and algae in the water, but not all species were affected to the same degree. </p>
<p>Some algae species showed signs of recovery after the dilbit sank, but zooplankton appeared more sensitive in the long-term. Larger zooplankton are an important food for fish, so if their numbers drop for a prolonged period, fish could starve. Our initial study lasted 11 days, so we don’t know if this would occur. </p>
<p>Bacterial abundance, on the other hand, increased following the dilbit spill. The composition of the bacterial community shifted to include more oil-eating microbes, which could help mitigate some of the impact of residue oil. </p>
<p>We have seen this before in the ocean. After marine oil spills, <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5b03333">bacterial blooms of oil-eating microbes are common</a>. </p>
<p>Oil breakdown by bacteria offers a promise for some remediation following spills but is likely not a silver bullet, especially for heavy oils such as dilbit. After a dilbit spill, most of the heaviest petroleum compounds comprising natural bitumen will still likely remain, as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.04.005">oil-eating microbes prefer</a> lighter, more accessible oil.</p>
<h2>Research coming down the pipeline</h2>
<p>We know that freshwater dilbit spills may have different implications for clean up and can dramatically affect aquatic life in the short-term, but we still need to understand the long-term impacts of dilbit in a variety of environments and spill sizes.</p>
<p>In 2018, we conducted a larger study using in-lake enclosures at the <a href="https://iisd.org/ela/about/who-we-are/">IISD-Experimental Lakes Area</a>, a research facility in northwestern Ontario that’s world-renowned for hosting experiments in whole lakes. Research from these experimental lakes has shaped water quality policies, such as acid rain and phosphates, by providing more accurate answers than those that come from a lab test tube.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351384/original/file-20200805-24-1vbd26f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers carefully add dilbit into a large in-lake enclosure in Lake 260 at the IISD Experimental Lakes Area in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jose Luis Rodriguez-Gil)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, unlike typical whole lake studies, we did not just release dilbit into a single lake. By using large in-lake enclosures, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20180625-the-oil-spill-experiment-in-a-canada-lake">we created</a> seven different spill sizes, using multiple levels of oil containment to prevent an intentional oil spill from becoming a terrible accident. </p>
<p>Last summer, a <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-slick-science-how-researchers-are-preparing-for-canadas-next-major/">follow-up study</a> evaluated different oil cleanup options in a freshwater lake using similar in-lake enclosures to figure out which methods work best. Combined, the results of these studies will help inform the risk assessments for dilbit spills, cleanup methods, environmental policy and hopefully mitigate the impacts of future spills.</p>
<p>No one wants an oil spill in their backyard, but sometimes recreating these accidents through small controlled spills is the best way to understand them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Cederwall receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) LEADERS-CREATE: Program for Leaders in Water and Watershed Sustainability.
This research as conducted as part of the Boreal-lake Oil Release Experiments by Additions to Limnocorrals (BOREAL) study funded by an NSERC Strategic Partnership Grant awarded to Dr. Jules Blais (uOttawa), Dr. Mark Hanson (uManitoba), and Dr. Diane Orihel (Queen’sU). Research funding was also received by a grant and in-kind contributions from Environment and Climate Change Canada through the Oceans Protection Plan, in-kind contributions from Fisheries and Oceans Canada, National Research Council of Canada, and the IISD - Experimental Lakes Area, as well as a Research Initiation Grant from Queen’s University awarded to Dr. Diane Orihel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sawyer Stoyanovich receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). This research was conducted as part of the Boreal-lake Oil Release Experiments by Additions to Limnocorrals (BOREAL) study funded by an NSERC Strategic Partnership Grant awarded to Dr. Jules Blais (uOttawa), Dr. Mark Hanson (uManitoba), and Dr. Diane Orihel (Queen’sU). Research funding was also received by a grant and in-kind contributions from Environment and Climate Change Canada through the Oceans Protection Plan, in-kind contributions from Fisheries and Oceans Canada, National Research Council of Canada, and the IISD - Experimental Lakes Area.</span></em></p>No one wants an oil spill in their backyard. Yet to understand the real-world fate and effects of diluted bitumen — a Canadian oil sands product — that’s exactly what some scientists did.Jeffrey Cederwall, PhD Student in Biology, Queen's University, OntarioSawyer Stoyanovich, PhD Candidate in Biology, Spec in Chemical and Environmental Toxicology, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1427082020-07-29T18:33:11Z2020-07-29T18:33:11ZHow to protect yourself from media manipulation on energy issues and other contentious matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350047/original/file-20200728-29-19anb64.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C66%2C6190%2C4082&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pipe for the Trans Mountain pipeline is unloaded in Edson, Alta., in June 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When my kids were little, we would play a game during the TV commercials. </p>
<p>What was the main message, I would ask. To whom was it targeted? Did you find it convincing? Why or why not? </p>
<p>I hoped this would encourage critical thinking, build some awareness of unscrupulous messaging and wrest them from the grips of a consumer culture. Without realizing it, I was teaching them about “media frames.”</p>
<p>Frames are selective storylines intended to sway decision-makers or public opinion, often with provocative words or images. The power of framing comes from defining the terms of a debate without the audience realizing it has occurred. </p>
<p>Being aware of frames reduces our vulnerability to them. Once we can recognize frames and framing techniques, they lose their power, and we can focus on the arguments, not the frame. </p>
<h2>Manipulative or responsible?</h2>
<p>“<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/06/us/what-is-defund-police-trnd/index.html">Defund the Police</a>” is a recent example of a frame that targets racially motivated police brutality and advocates for moving a portion of police budgets to other arenas, such as mental health care. The original premise of this frame was that some police tasks should be managed by social workers or through community-building initiatives in a new model of public safety. </p>
<p>The frame was co-opted by self-professed “law-and-order” advocates to suggest the “defunders” were violent anarchists who wanted to abolish the police, threatening public safety and leading to widespread unrest. Another group adopted the defund frame with an eye to removing policing altogether, weakening its original intent and fuelling the “law-and-order” counter-frame. </p>
<p>Frames work by activating or “priming” already held feelings, ideas and values. When they have broad appeal, we see them as common sense. The “law-and-order” counter-frame builds on a deeply rooted common-sense frame that sees <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/89-652-x/89-652-x2015007-eng.htm">police as protectors</a>. </p>
<p>People skilled in the art of shaping frames can define situations, set the terms of debates, strategically mobilize supporters, hobble opponents and ultimately determine outcomes. Framing can be manipulative and unethical, necessary and responsible, brilliant and dangerous. </p>
<h2>‘Anti-petroleum extremists’</h2>
<p><a href="https://viurrspace.ca/handle/10613/5402">My research on contentious energy conflicts on Canada’s West Coast</a> found no frame was more influential in advancing a conflict narrative than one I labelled “anti-petroleum extremists.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protesters hold signs and bang drums" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350043/original/file-20200728-19-e7wmdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350043/original/file-20200728-19-e7wmdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350043/original/file-20200728-19-e7wmdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350043/original/file-20200728-19-e7wmdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350043/original/file-20200728-19-e7wmdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350043/original/file-20200728-19-e7wmdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350043/original/file-20200728-19-e7wmdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A protester holds up a ‘Stop Harper’ sign during a rally to show opposition to the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline in Vancouver, B.C., in June 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It originated in a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/radicals-working-against-oilsands-ottawa-says-1.1148310">2012 media firestorm over the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline</a>, simmered its way through some seven years of conflict over the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/timeline-key-dates-history-trans-mountain-pipeline-1.4849370">Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion</a> and is still present in <a href="https://www.web24.news/u/2020/06/alberta-government-investigation-extended.html">news releases from the Alberta government</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-urgent-need-for-media-literacy-in-an-age-of-annihilation-117958">The urgent need for media literacy in an age of annihilation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Rather than raise awareness of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-pipeline-bombings-3-years-old-with-no-charges-laid-1.985126">bombings targeting B.C. gas pipelines</a> and other <a href="https://www.statewatch.org/media/documents/news/2015/feb/can-2014-01-24-rcmp-anti-petroleum-activists-report.pdf">violent events affecting and threatening people in Canada’s oil and gas industry</a>, former prime minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government advanced a frame that portrayed pipeline opponents as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/radicals-working-against-oilsands-ottawa-says-1.1148310">foreign-funded radicals who were unfairly trying to stop major projects no matter what the cost to Canadian families</a>. </p>
<p>The frame was <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/monitor/government%E2%80%99s-anti-terror-laws-target-anti-pipeline-foes">amplified by anti-terrorism legislation suggesting pipeline protesters threatened national security</a>, documents such as <a href="https://www.statewatch.org/media/documents/news/2015/feb/can-2014-01-24-rcmp-anti-petroleum-activists-report.pdf">RCMP intelligence reports</a> that suggested protesters were under surveillance and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/academics-open-letter-calls-for-moratorium-on-political-tax-audits-1.2765967?cmp=rss">widespread audits of environmental organizations</a>. </p>
<h2>Framing techniques</h2>
<p>At least <a href="https://www.edx.org/course/framing-how-politicians-debate">five framing techniques</a> were used to create the “anti-petroleum extremists” frame. </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Identity: “Us-versus-them” frames characterize a situation to be more about the players and less about the issues. Blame was squarely placed on a stereotypical <em>them</em> with moral indignation and an intent to legitimize action to end the perceived injustice. </p></li>
<li><p>Hot values: Like all contentious frames, “anti-petroleum extremists” was embedded in “<a href="https://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/article/appreciating-values-diversity-environment-versus-economy-conflicts/">hot values</a>” more than “cold” information such as industry statistics or even “warm” stories about resource-dependent families.</p>
<p>For example, fossil fuels may be valued as sources of great wealth and progress, or derided as threats to clean air and water and planetary stability. In a framing contest, frames attached to strong values will trounce ones that are technical or narrative.</p></li>
<li><p>Masculinity: Under this frame, leadership is about decisiveness, power and strength. In feminine frames, it’s about bridging differences, establishing relationships and questioning one’s own position. </p></li>
<li><p>Breaking the monopoly on emotion: By describing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/radicals-working-against-oilsands-ottawa-says-1.1148310">environmentalists as “foreign-funded</a>,” the Harper government hijacked a common anti-oilsands frame, namely that foreign wealth had tremendous influence over Canadian energy and environmental policies. </p></li>
<li><p>Villain, victim and hero: The Harper government portrayed itself as heroic, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/radicals-working-against-oilsands-ottawa-says-1.1148310">protecting the Canadian public and important investors</a> from villanous extremists. Protesters had a similar frame, where the heroes were reasonable people with legitimate concerns safeguarding a sustainable future.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>‘No choice’</h2>
<p>As the Harper government <a href="http://www.theharperdecade.com/blog/2015/4/18/the-erosion-of-environmental-protection-and-public-environmental-information">weakened environmental laws</a> and legal decisions failed to provide relief, many people began to feel like they were running out of options. This helped spur a “<a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/green-party-leader-elizabeth-may-arrested-in-anti-pipeline-protest-1.3856341">no choice</a>” frame.</p>
<p>Many “no choice” advocates <a href="https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/02/12/Toolkit-for-Change/">did not see themselves as extremist</a> and felt they — not only the environment — were under assault, transforming the frame into an identity frame. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of people carrying flags and a banner walk down a street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350046/original/file-20200728-13-1e0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350046/original/file-20200728-13-1e0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350046/original/file-20200728-13-1e0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350046/original/file-20200728-13-1e0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350046/original/file-20200728-13-1e0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350046/original/file-20200728-13-1e0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350046/original/file-20200728-13-1e0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People leave the site of a blockade in the Mohawk community of Kahnawake, Que., in March 2020, where they were to showing their support for Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs in British Columbia who are opposed to the construction of a liquid natural gas pipeline through their traditional territory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiroz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For Indigenous people opposed to the project, the “anti-petroleum extremists” frame was another intolerable affront to First Nations and territories overly consumed by development. </p>
<p>For some other research participants, there was a sense that <em>Canadianism</em> was under attack. </p>
<p>The “no choice” frame became linked to a hot values frame with villain, victim, hero properties called “restoring democracy” in the lead up to the 2015 federal election. In this frame, moral justice trumped legal justice, since legislators and regulators were seen as aligned with industry and not worthy of trust. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-could-power-a-new-green-movement-by-talking-about-energy-change-132906">We could power a new green movement by talking about energy change</a>
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<p>“Restoring democracy” would become the most prominent frame in mainstream news, and it was this frame to which Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau first responded, promising <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2016/08/15/trudeau-government-unveils-environmental-assessment-review-panel/">extensive opportunities for public input</a>. </p>
<h2>Building frame literacy</h2>
<p>Powerful players in government and industry have ample resources and experience with media messaging. To help level the playing field, I challenge you to identify frames in media. </p>
<p>Are they being used to some political advantage? What values are evident? Are there counter-frames? What framing techniques are used? </p>
<p>Are the frames in non-profit, industry or government media? Are they in mainstream news? How frequently are you seeing them in each type of media? </p>
<p>Is there an emerging “no choice” frame, signalling a social tipping point? </p>
<p>As you build frame literacy, you will protect yourself from media manipulation — and likely have a little fun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Clermont received funding from SSHRC. </span></em></p>Villain, victim or hero? It all depends on who’s telling the story. When an audience is aware of how a story is framed, it can focus on the arguments, not the frame.Holly Clermont, Post-doctoral fellow, Environment, Community and Health Observatory, University of Northern British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1406912020-06-30T15:52:37Z2020-06-30T15:52:37ZHow to build a better Canada after COVID-19: Launch a fossil-free future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344693/original/file-20200630-103645-19klyd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C59%2C7902%2C5141&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The choices we make now will define Canada's — and the world's — future.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This story is <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/topics/canada-after-covid-19-89000">part of a series that proposes solutions</a> to the many issues exposed during the coronavirus pandemic and what government and citizens can do to make Canada a better place.</em></p>
<p>Demand for fossil fuels collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic as lockdown measures were introduced. In the second quarter of 2020, experts predict that global oil demand will be down <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/">20 per cent</a> from this time last year. Although demand is likely to recover somewhat in the next two years, some major oil company executives believe that it may <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/BP-Boss-We-May-Have-Already-Hit-Peak-Oil-Demand.html">never return to pre-2020 levels</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344923/original/file-20200630-103688-sng4zt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344923/original/file-20200630-103688-sng4zt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344923/original/file-20200630-103688-sng4zt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344923/original/file-20200630-103688-sng4zt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344923/original/file-20200630-103688-sng4zt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344923/original/file-20200630-103688-sng4zt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344923/original/file-20200630-103688-sng4zt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/ca/topics/canada-after-covid-19-89000">Click here for more articles from this ongoing series</a></span>
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<p>At the same time, the world remains “on fire” due to climate change, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. The year began with <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/3/21048891/australia-wildfires-koalas-climate-change-bushfires-deaths-animals-damage">fires ravaging Australia</a>, and in June, temperatures in the Arctic hit a <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/reported-new-record-temperature-of-38%C2%B0c-north-of-arctic-circle">record-breaking 38C</a>.</p>
<p>The world is now at a <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199662814.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199662814-e-5">critical juncture</a> — a moment of uncertainty where decisions can cause dramatic shifts in the direction a society takes. The choices we make now will define Canada’s — and humanity’s — future. </p>
<p>As governments look for ways to help the Canadian economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, they must be guided by one incontestable principle: We cannot afford to invest in and expand the fossil fuel industry any further. </p>
<h2>Why we need structural change</h2>
<p>Daily global carbon dioxide emissions fell by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/19/lockdowns-trigger-dramatic-fall-global-carbon-emissions">17 per cent in early April</a>, when lockdowns were at their peak, compared to 2019. In the U.K., the decline hit 31 per cent, while <a href="https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/covid-measures-cut-world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-nearly-a-fifth-study">in Canada</a> it reached 20 per cent. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/11/carbon-emissions-in-surprisingly-rapid-surge-post-lockdown">But emissions are now rebounding</a> — much quicker than expected — as cars and trucks take to the roads again. </p>
<p>Emissions in 2020 are expected to be down by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x">four per cent to (at most) seven per cent</a> from 2019. But this <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/cut-global-emissions-76-percent-every-year-next-decade-meet-15degc">falls short</a> of the emissions cuts needed to achieve the Paris Agreement targets — 7.6 per cent a year, every year.</p>
<p>The lockdown has demonstrated that <a href="https://grist.org/climate/the-world-is-on-lockdown-so-where-are-all-the-carbon-emissions-coming-from/">behavioural change alone is insufficient</a> to decarbonize the economy; we also need structural change that gets at the root of emissions. This means addressing the contribution of the oil sector, particularly the oil sands. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-sliding-doors-moment-what-we-do-now-could-change-earths-trajectory-137838">Coronavirus is a 'sliding doors' moment. What we do now could change Earth's trajectory</a>
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<p>While emissions from other sectors in Canada have levelled off or are declining, oil sands emissions <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/ghg-emissions/2020/greenhouse-gas-emissions-en.pdf">increased by 456 per cent</a> between 1990 and 2018. Emissions from conventional oil production have also increased, but only by 24 per cent.</p>
<p>Despite a <a href="https://www.uottawa.ca/positive-energy/sites/www.uottawa.ca.positive-energy/files/pe_in_brief_duane_bratt_web.pdf">valiant attempt</a> by the Alberta NDP government in 2015, successive provincial governments have failed to reduce oil sands emissions. And since the COVID-19 crisis, “green initiatives,” such as <a href="https://www.suncor.com/en-CA/newsroom/news-releases/1913104">Suncor’s plan to replace coke-fired boilers with natural gas units</a> at its base operations, have been <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-canada-environment-focus-idUKKBN23L06G">shelved to cut costs</a>, undermining claims from the industry that it is part of the solution. </p>
<h2>Industry crisis deepens</h2>
<p>The oil and gas industry was in trouble before the pandemic hit, but it is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/04/coronavirus-crisis-collapse-fossil-fuels-demand">now facing potential collapse</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344694/original/file-20200630-103661-6yem34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344694/original/file-20200630-103661-6yem34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344694/original/file-20200630-103661-6yem34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344694/original/file-20200630-103661-6yem34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344694/original/file-20200630-103661-6yem34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344694/original/file-20200630-103661-6yem34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344694/original/file-20200630-103661-6yem34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A flare stack at the Imperial Oil refinery in Edmonton lights the sky in December 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>For a brief period in early April and again later that month, a barrel of Alberta oil was selling for <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/10-things-you-need-to-know-as-a-barrel-of-alberta-oil-is-valued-at-less-than-a-bottle-of-maple-syrup/">less than a bottle of maple syrup</a>. Although the price has since recovered somewhat, expectations for capital expenditures have changed dramatically. </p>
<p>Now, almost <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2020/06/09/the-drilldown-capp-predicts-canadas-oil-and-gas-sector-will-see-major-drop-in-2020-capital-expenditures/">40 per cent</a> less financing is anticipated for 2020. A second wave of coronavirus infections and lockdowns could <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Second-Wave-Of-COVID-19-Could-Crush-Oil-Markets.html">send oil markets into another tailspin</a>.</p>
<p>While the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) has indefinitely deferred its long-term production forecast, Alberta has cut production by about 25 per cent, or <a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OB04_052020.pdf">one million barrels per day</a>. According to Alberta, mega pipelines are now “<a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OB04_052020.pdf">fairly empty</a>,” and Enbridge plans to use part of its aging Line 3 for <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6908626/enbridge-mainline-pipeline-crude-oil-storage-prices/">oil storage</a>. BP has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-strandedassets-analysis/bps-stranded-canadian-angolan-assets-expose-wider-industry-risks-idUSKBN23V1ZY">written off its oil sands investments</a> entirely.</p>
<h2>More subsidies won’t save jobs</h2>
<p>It’s not surprising then that the Canadian oil industry has <a href="https://www.capp.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Federal-Liquidity-Letter.pdf.pdf">redoubled its demands</a> for government support as well as the suspension of <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/6832023/oil-lobby-asks-federal-government-to-suspend-environmental-lobbying-laws-due-to-covid-19">environmental regulations</a> and <a href="https://ablawg.ca/2020/05/07/covid-19-and-the-suspension-of-environmental-monitoring-in-the-oil-sands/">monitoring requirements</a>. In April, CAPP was the <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2020/06/08/capp-most-active-lobbying-body-in-april-as-liberals-moved-forward-with-oil-and-gas-aid-package/">most active federal lobbying body</a>, recording over 40 meetings with federal officials. </p>
<p>Any government response to this lobbying isn’t a question of weighing “<a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/jobs-vs-environment">jobs versus the environment</a>”: the industry has been shedding jobs for years, while extracting more oil. From 2014 to 2019, in the midst of surging production, Canada’s oil and gas sector cut <a href="https://www.parklandinstitute.ca/the_future_of_albertas_oil_sands_industry">53,000 jobs</a> — about a quarter of the sector’s <a href="https://careersinoilandgas.com/what-is-lmi/employment-labour-data/">225,000 jobs</a>. <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/10/17/automation-vs-humanity-and-the-future-of-albertas-oil-sands_a_23563966/">Advancements in automation</a> and other changes in the industry mean that <a href="https://www.corporatemapping.ca/alberta-keystone-xl/">those jobs are not coming back</a>, even if the troubled Keystone XL pipeline is somehow built.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-keystone-xl-and-a-green-new-deal-could-shake-up-canadas-energy-industry-139362">Biden, Keystone XL and a Green New Deal could shake up Canada's energy industry</a>
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<p>While oil workers have faced unemployment and anxiety about their futures, executives and shareholders have continued to reap huge benefits. <a href="https://www.parklandinstitute.ca/boom_bust_and_consolidation">The five largest oil sands producers</a> doled out $12.6 billion in dividends to shareholders (the <a href="https://www.stand.earth/latest/Canada-climate-energy/canadas-tar-sands/who-benefits-oil-sands">majority of which are not Canadian</a>) from late 2014 to 2017.</p>
<p>As the fossil fuel sector scrambles to protect profits while shedding jobs, Canada’s clean tech sector is experiencing <a href="https://www.pembina.org/blog/canada-promotes-clean-innovation-while-creating-jobs">“explosive” growth</a>, bringing impressive earnings and jobs. Clean energy jobs are anticipated to grow to <a href="https://cleanenergycanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Report_TER2019_CleanJobsFuture_20191001_FINAL.pdf">over 550,000 in the next decade from 300,000 in 2019</a>.</p>
<h2>Stranded assets, stranded communities</h2>
<p>In May, the Canadian oil and gas industry employed roughly <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-oil-and-gas-jobs-1.5619621">163,000 people</a>, which was less than <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701">one per cent</a> of all workers in the country. But those jobs are highly geographically concentrated. As <a href="https://www.sei.org/about-sei/press-room/new-oil-projects-are-a-risky-bet-for-canada-analysis-finds/">oil assets increasingly become stranded assets</a>, Canada’s oil workers and oil-dependent communities will likewise become stranded. </p>
<p>But that doesn’t have to be our future. </p>
<p>A slight majority of Albertans appear to understand this and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cbc-news-poll-energy-transition-support-1.5533036">support a transition away from oil and gas</a>. The key conversations are about <a href="https://www.uottawa.ca/positive-energy/sites/www.uottawa.ca.positive-energy/files/pe_in_brief_marisa_beck.pdf">how and when</a> this transition occurs. </p>
<p>The question of <em>when</em> has been answered for us. If, as a country, we can agree that bailouts are not justifiable on economic or environmental grounds, then the oil price crash dictates that the transition starts now. Recent polling indicates that the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q_GzPlZD4SRvQVesPFuWAAySrO2ZhlkHAWj0dfY0lXY/edit#gid=1551531136">vast majority of Canadians</a> want the federal government to invest in a “green recovery.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344658/original/file-20200629-155345-1oxpa9a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In terms of <em>how</em> the transition occurs, redirecting the <a href="http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2020/05/G20-Still-Digging.pdf">billions of dollars</a> in <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_201904_03_e_43309.html">subsidies</a> that the federal government currently provides the fossil fuel industry to renewable energy and energy efficiency projects is a good place to start. This could create <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/how-a-post-pandemic-stimulus-can-both-create-jobs-and-help-the-climate#">far more jobs</a> while also making a contribution to our emissions reductions targets.</p>
<h2>Paths to a fossil-free Canada</h2>
<p>Beyond this, there are plenty of <a href="https://www.corporatemapping.ca/low-carbon-reboot/">good proposals</a> to bring about deep emissions reductions through everything from increased investments in <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-recovery-public-transport-is-key-to-avoid-repeating-old-and-unsustainable-mistakes-138415">public transportation</a> to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07078552.2020.1738780?journalCode=rsor20">regenerative agriculture</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344690/original/file-20200630-103653-1sb50f5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jobs created, directly and indirectly, per $10 million in government spending.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.012">(Data: H. Garrett-Peltier, Economic Modelling, pp. 439-47, 2017)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is also clear that <a href="https://www.parklandinstitute.ca/a_feminist_approach_to_albertas_covid19_response">we should invest</a> more in <a href="https://globalwomenstrike.net/open-letter-to-governments-a-care-income-now/">care work</a> — so that we have more and better-paid nurses, and <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/it-s-not-an-expense-it-s-an-investment-oxfam-canada-demands-universal-childcare-1.4423127">universal child care</a>. Jobs in this sector are <a href="http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/22131/green-new-deal-climate-labor-domestic-workers-nannies-house-cleaners">low-carbon</a> and, as the pandemic has demonstrated so vividly, essential to the functioning of our society.</p>
<p>We can also think outside the box. The pandemic response has substantially increased awareness and acceptance of previously overlooked policy options such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/job-guarantees-basic-income-can-save-us-from-covid-19-depression-133997">universal basic income</a>, <a href="https://therealnews.com/stories/why-the-green-new-deal-includes-a-jobs-guarantee">job guarantees</a>, and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-day-is-dawning-on-a-four-day-work-week-139587">shorter work week</a>. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-better-canada-after-covid-19-transform-cerb-into-a-basic-annual-income-program-140683">How to build a better Canada after COVID-19: Transform CERB into a basic annual income program</a>
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<p>Reimagining our relationship to work and focusing on outcomes that address <a href="http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/realizing-a-just-and-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels.pdf">inequality</a> and improve <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-canadians-ready-to-ditch-gdp-as-a-key-prosperity-indicator-132178">well-being</a> can help us to <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-climate-case-for-a-jobs-guarantee-1.1446107">reduce our emissions</a> as well as our reliance on the industries that can no longer offer the employment opportunities that we need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyla Tienhaara receives funding from the Government of Canada through the Canada Research Chair (CRC) program and SSHRC. She occasionally does pro-bono research work for not-for-profit environmental groups. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Janzwood has previously received funding from the Government of Canada through the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. She has conducted research for not-for-profit groups, including the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and the Council of Canadians.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angela Carter receives funding from the Government of Canada through the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. She is affiliated with not-for-profit climate/social justice organizations. </span></em></p>The oil and gas industry was in trouble before the pandemic hit, but now it faces potential collapse. A majority of Canadians want the federal government to invest in a ‘green recovery.’Kyla Tienhaara, Canada Research Chair in Economy and Environment, Queen's University, OntarioAmy Janzwood, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, University of TorontoAngela Carter, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1393622020-05-27T19:18:15Z2020-05-27T19:18:15ZBiden, Keystone XL and a Green New Deal could shake up Canada’s energy industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337731/original/file-20200526-106862-znn5sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C0%2C3952%2C3000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden has vowed to kill the Keystone XL pipeline if he is elected president in November.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Alex Panetta</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/biden-kxl-interview-1.5580115">recently reiterated his desire to stop the Keystone XL oil pipeline project</a>. “I’ve been against Keystone from the beginning. It is tarsands that we don’t need — that in fact is a very, very high pollutant,” he said.</p>
<p>This is just the latest move in a long political game with respect to Keystone XL. In 2015, Vice-President Biden supported President Barack Obama’s decision to block the pipeline. After the 2017 election, President Donald Trump restored the project. If completed, the 1,900-kilometre pipeline would carry crude oil from Alberta to Nebraska, ultimately feeding refineries on the Gulf Coast.</p>
<p>Now Biden says he would shut it down again if he’s elected president in November. Canadians need to know that he is really making three arguments against the project, which may require Canada to re-examine its energy sector strategy. </p>
<h2>‘High pollutant’</h2>
<p>Biden points to Canada’s oilsands as having “… very, very high pollutant” levels. There is some truth to this perception. </p>
<p>In the United States, the production of conventional oil and its transport to refinery gates produce <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b01255">about 7.1 grams of carbon dioxide equivalents of greenhouse gases for each megajoule of energy (CO2e/MJ)</a>. Shale oil compares favourably <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acssuschemeng.9b03136">at 3.5-14 g CO2e/MJ</a>, for production, but these figures do not include upgrading and transport, or refining. Long-term studies of Canadian oilsands surface mining suggest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b03974">range from 8.7 g CO2e/MJ to 15-23 g CO2e/MJ</a> (the latter figures include upgrading). </p>
<p>The transport of the oil product to refineries in the U.S. increases the GHG emissions of Canadian oil to between 16-33 g CO2e/MJ, depending on the distance covered and whether the product is moved through pipelines (smaller footprint) or by rail (large footprint). When taken together, this shows that greenhouse gas emissions of oilsands production, upgrading and transport are at least four times greater than U.S. conventional oil.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337994/original/file-20200527-20223-148lkk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337994/original/file-20200527-20223-148lkk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337994/original/file-20200527-20223-148lkk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337994/original/file-20200527-20223-148lkk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337994/original/file-20200527-20223-148lkk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337994/original/file-20200527-20223-148lkk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337994/original/file-20200527-20223-148lkk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden (right) has supported policies that would limit greenhouse gases and set the U.S. economy on a path to a low-carbon future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)</span></span>
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<p>Alberta and the oil industry have fought back against these negative perceptions. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers report that GHG emissions per unit of GDP have <a href="https://www.capp.ca/explore/greenhouse-gas-emissions/">declined by 20 per cent since 2005</a>, although <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/energy-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-ghgs/20063">total emissions from oilsands have more than doubled between 2000 and 2017</a>. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has invested $30 million into a “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-alberta-premier-kenney-launches-energy-war-room-to-take-on-oil/">war room</a>,” echoing past campaigns labelling oil from overseas as “<a href="https://reason.com/2011/08/10/conflict-oil-or-canadian-o/">conflict oil</a>.” </p>
<p>The scientific literature has provided Canadian producers with some arguments to support oilsands production. For example, the relatively low GHG emissions of shale oil are counterbalanced by a host of <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2018EF000809">negative impacts on water supply and quality</a>, issues of geological instability and earthquakes, and growing concern about the longevity of shale operations. </p>
<p>Yet the Canadian energy sector is still perceived as a poor environmental performer. Earlier this month, Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/why-the-worlds-largest-sovereign-wealth-funds-divestment-from-the-oilsands-could-trigger-a-bigger-fund-exodus">excluded key oilsands producers</a> from its portfolio, and BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/climate/blackrock-oil-sands-alberta-financing.html">pulled out of oilsands companies</a> in early 2020. Recent research found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09714-9">oilsands emissions may be up to 30 per cent higher than what the industry reports</a>.</p>
<h2>‘We don’t need’ that oil</h2>
<p>Biden also suggested that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/biden-kxl-interview-1.5580115">the U.S. doesn’t need Canadian oilsands</a> resources, a reflection of the dramatic shifts in U.S. oil production over the past decade. In 2010, the U.S. produced <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M">about five million barrels of oil per day</a>, but it now has the capacity to produce <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6">17.9 million barrels a day</a>. </p>
<p>A big part of this growth has been due to shale production, which grew to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43015">about 12.2 million barrels per day</a> in 2019 from just over <a href="https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_01222014.pdf">0.5 million barrels per day in 2010</a>. Canadian oil, which amounts to <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/crude-oil-facts/20064#L6">about 4.55 million barrels per day</a>, was once critical to U.S. energy security but has become less relevant.</p>
<p>The current COVID-19 situation has further decreased the U.S. need for oil. As 2020 unfolds, investors are predicting oil production drops of <a href="https://www.bruegel.org/2020/04/covid-19-is-causing-the-collapse-of-oil-markets-when-will-they-recover/">up to 2.9 million barrels per day</a> across the U.S. Much of produced oil is being stored, and oil storage capacity is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/oil-and-coronavirus-producers-trying-to-find-creative-storage-options.html">rapidly filling up</a> (or, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/05/18/belying-oils-price-volatility-cushing-has-always-had-ample-storage-space-for-us-producers-crude/#66697f2d76cd">perhaps not</a>). Regardless, demand for gasoline and other oil products has reached its <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Death-Of-US-Oil.html">lowest point since 1971</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/oil-crash-explained-how-are-negative-oil-prices-even-possible-136829">Oil crash explained: How are negative oil prices even possible?</a>
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<p>What will happen to oil demand as we exit the pandemic and the economy restarts? Some speculate that more and more people will <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/covid-19-cities-design-physical-distancing-1.5550401">work from home on a semi-permanent basis</a>, giving governments licence to <a href="https://gvcc.bc.ca/how-can-our-streets-change-in-response-to-covid/">redesign roadways</a> and increase active transit options. </p>
<p>Others warn that <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/experts-warn-of-increasing-car-use-loss-of-transit-routes-post-crisis-1.4928609">car travel may increase</a>, sparking a resurgence in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2020/05/17/why-us-oil-and-natural-gas-demand-will-rebound-from-covid-19/#2a93b7bf6a06">demand for gasoline</a> and other refined oil products, and leading to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6895263/coronavirus-public-transit-reopening/">declines in public transit use</a>.</p>
<h2>‘We’re gonna transition … to a clean economy’</h2>
<p>Biden’s comments emphasized the need to transition away from fossil fuels, echoing calls for a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/07/691997301/rep-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-releases-green-new-deal-outline">Green New Deal</a>, championed by key Democrats such as congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.</p>
<p>The Green New Deal combines a series of goals including <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/green-new-deal-resolution-calls-for-100-clean-renewable-and-zero-emission-e">100 per cent renewable energy</a>, along with full access to health care and guaranteed wages. As one of the most senior Democrats to endorse the Green New Deal, Biden could be expected to support this movement should he win the White House.</p>
<p>But the Green New Deal may be a difficult sell in the post-COVID world. While renewable energy generation costs are increasingly cheaper, it is <a href="https://energywatch-inc.com/will-lower-oil-prices-affect-renewable-penetration/">hard to compete against extremely low oil prices</a>, and upgrading the grid to deliver renewable energy may result in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianmurray1/2019/06/17/the-paradox-of-declining-renewable-costs-and-rising-electricity-prices/#486f2cee61d5">higher electricity costs for consumers</a> — something that may not be easy to manage during a major recession. </p>
<p>Very real concerns about <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190712151926.htm">energy poverty and inequality</a> must be also be addressed within a Green New Deal — and it will take time to do this right. These concerns and challenges will buy countries like Canada time to adapt their own energy sector to better serve a rapidly changing market south of the border.</p>
<p>Biden’s words should lead Canadians to pause and reflect on the direction that the energy sector is going. Canadian companies depend on the international marketplace, and that marketplace is demanding cleaner energy products. </p>
<p>The U.S. has already become a major oil producer, and it’s left Canadian companies struggling. A Green New Deal will simply serve to accelerate these trends. Without significant change, Canada’s energy sector risks being left behind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Warren Mabee receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) as well as from the Canada Research Chairs Foundation.</span></em></p>Canadian companies depend on the international marketplace, which is demanding cleaner energy products. Without significant change, Canada’s energy sector risks being left behind.Warren Mabee, Director, Queen's Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1359962020-04-29T16:37:38Z2020-04-29T16:37:38ZDisaster capitalism: Coronavirus crisis brings bailouts, tax breaks and lax environmental rules to oilsands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330882/original/file-20200427-145544-f87nf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C251%2C2802%2C1738&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alberta's new ministerial orders modify some industrial environmental reporting requirements in the province. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Jason Kenney and the Alberta government have wasted no time using the current coronavirus crisis to aggressively deregulate the Alberta oilsands.</p>
<p>Using executive powers granted under a provincial state of public health emergency, Alberta is <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jason-nixon-covid-19-coronavirus-martin-olyszynski-alberta-1.5518567">swiftly dismantling legislative, regulatory and financial barriers to oilsands development</a> and <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=69965D6D6EE7A-92F8-DD89-BBB9E1FE323BD2DD">pushing through the construction of controversial oil pipelines</a>. </p>
<p>This comes at a time when dissent has effectively been silenced. People are preoccupied with survival, discouraged from leaving their homes and banned from gathering in groups. Demonstrations are not only impossible, they are forbidden by law. </p>
<p>This is a textbook example of what Naomi Klein calls <a href="http://tsd.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine/the-book">disaster capitalism</a>: using a crisis when the normal rules of democratic procedure are suspended to push though a series of reforms that would otherwise be resisted and opposed. </p>
<h2>$15 billion bailout?</h2>
<p>Under the cover of COVID-19, <a href="https://ablawg.ca/2020/04/10/covid-19-and-the-suspension-of-energy-reporting-and-well-suspension-requirements-in-alberta/">Alberta has amended the Oil & Gas Conservation Act, Pipelines Act, Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act, Water Act, Public Lands Act</a> and the newly implemented <a href="https://www.bennettjones.com/Blogs-Section/Federal-Government-Releases-Notice-of-Intent-to-Amend-Output-Based-Pricing-System-Regulations">Technology Innovation and Emissions Regulations (TIER)</a> to mitigate against “undue hardship” to the oil and gas industry. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-development-wins-when-its-pitted-against-endangered-species-117961">Energy development wins when it's pitted against endangered species</a>
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<p>The massive federal bailout package <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ottawa-prepares-multibillion-dollar-bailout-of-oil-and-gas-sector/">originally rumoured at $15 billion</a> may, for now, be off the table, replaced by a <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/trudeau-offers-aid-to-energy-workers-while-skirting-full-bailout">$2.45 billion dollar package that includes high-risk financing for oil companies</a>. </p>
<p>Ottawa <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/alberta-premier-calls-for-more-federal-support-of-canadas-energy-sector-2020-04-21">continues to consider support for Alberta’s energy sector</a>. If industry and the Alberta government get their way, this will include the suspension of income tax payments, a troubled asset recovery program to facilitate federal purchase of equity assets in oil and gas, a massive injection of credit and the suspension or postponement of the scheduled increase to the federal carbon tax — worth between <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/corbella-if-albertas-energy-sector-dies-every-canadian-will-suffer-the-numbers-dont-lie/">$15 billion and $30 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Collectively, these measures will see billions of dollars of public finance flow to oil and gas producers and pipeline companies <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/funding-reduction-alberta-k-12-covid-1.5513803">instead of public services and institutions</a>. </p>
<p>This means <a href="https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/07/Jason-Kenney-Adds-To-Coronavirus-Crisis-With-Layoffs/">school boards will lay off teachers and education workers</a>. Thousands have already lost their jobs at universities and colleges. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-physician-pay-changes-in-effect-1.5518411">Doctor’s salaries will be cut by up to 30 per cent</a> and thousands of nurses, paramedics and heath-care workers will be out of work. </p>
<p>These measures — ostensibly a response to unprecedented crisis — are nothing new. Rather they reflect a stubborn conservative agenda of <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/report/doubling-down-with-taxpayer-dollars/">widespread deregulation and financial support for oil and gas companies</a> that have characterized provincial governance throughout Alberta’s history. </p>
<h2>‘Undue hardship’</h2>
<p>The Alberta government has <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/0cc78dea-655e-4a28-8128-5f0310399b74/resource/d26172b7-7109-418c-bfbe-e9b049076581/download/aep-ministerial-order-17-2020.pdf">suspended environmental reporting</a> and <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/70c04728-f685-42db-8a48-a82652db19fc/resource/6fef0513-e14d-4f90-bb1c-218ba0194278/download/aep-amd-temporary-relief-policy-2020-03.pdf">amended air-quality monitoring</a> requirements citing “undue hardship” for oil and gas producers, and having determined that these environmental activities are “not in the public interest.” </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330884/original/file-20200427-145518-1nxcxoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330884/original/file-20200427-145518-1nxcxoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330884/original/file-20200427-145518-1nxcxoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330884/original/file-20200427-145518-1nxcxoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330884/original/file-20200427-145518-1nxcxoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330884/original/file-20200427-145518-1nxcxoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330884/original/file-20200427-145518-1nxcxoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Jason Nixon, minister of environment and parks, chat in May 2019. Alberta has suspended environmental reporting requirements for industry under three major pieces of legislation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
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<p>Oilsands producers <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/8-environmental-responsibilities-albertas-oil-and-gas-companies-skip-covid-coronavirus/">won’t have to submit reports on how much waste water they send to tailings ponds</a> until Aug. 14, 2020. And they’re exempt from reporting when emissions from smokestacks, tailings ponds, transportation and dust exceed daily ambient air-quality limits until Dec. 31, 2020. They are also free from filing inventories of airborne emissions and air-quality monitoring reports until Dec. 31, 2020. </p>
<p>There will be no public scrutiny of the environmental impacts of the oilsands and little in place to protect people and the environment from oil and gas development until these suspensions expire. And it is possible they will be renewed. </p>
<p>Alberta has also passed a bill that amends the Oil and Gas Conservation Act and the Pipeline Act to allow the not-for-profit, industry-funded Orphan Well Association to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/expanded-powers-for-alberta-orphan-well-group-could-allow-it-to-operate-pipelines-produce-oil-1.5516689">produce and sell oil from abandoned wells and operate abandoned pipelines</a>.</p>
<p>Instead of using funds from industry levies, federal and provincial loans and grants to seal and remediate the wells and pipeline segments of bankrupt companies, newly amended legislation allows them to use this cash to start them up again and to profit from it. </p>
<p>These powers are being <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-loans-industry-funded-association-100-million-to-increase-the-pace-of-orphan-well-cleanup/">fuelled by a $100 million provincial loan</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/federal-oil-and-gas-orphan-wells-program-1.5535943">$1.7 billion of emergency relief from the federal government</a>. </p>
<h2>Pipelines propped up</h2>
<p><a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/2deef631-4dad-4b47-a20f-d31dd2cbe343/resource/366a722d-630c-4ce8-9ea5-3a22f3696bfb/download/aep-ministerial-order-15-2020.pdf">The Alberta government has amended the TIER regulations</a>, its version of the carbon tax, to make it easier for emitters to comply. It has also <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/relief-for-the-energy-sector.aspx">released hundreds of millions of dollars of public money</a> to exempt oil and gas producers from six months’ worth of levies owed to the Alberta Energy Regulator, and extended oil and gas tenures for a year. </p>
<p>Since oil and gas production, including the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/construction-on-trans-mountain-pipeline-goes-on-company-says-as-first-nations-concerned-over-covid-19-risks">construction of pipelines like Trans Mountain</a>, have been deemed an “<a href="https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2020/04/03/Oil-Sands-Workers-Deserve-Relief/">essential service</a>,” work in the oilsands continues apace with deregulation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/oil-crash-explained-how-are-negative-oil-prices-even-possible-136829">Oil crash explained: How are negative oil prices even possible?</a>
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<p>And that’s not all. As the price of Western crude select plunged to worthless levels, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/tc-energy-keystone-xl-pipeline-1.5515850">Kenney announced a $1.5 billion equity investment in the beleaguered Keystone XL pipeline</a>, owned by TC Energy, and $6 billion loan guarantee to back its construction. This is the same company that had to twice win injunctions (<a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6556771/wetsuweten-indigenous-pipeline-protest-rcmp-gun-video/">later enforced at gunpoint by RCMP</a>) against Indigenous land defenders in order to build a pipeline through unceeded territories. </p>
<p>First proposed in 2008, the pipeline has faced formidable opposition from Indigenous nations as it crossed their lands in Canada and the United States, including the Blackfoot and the Sioux, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/dakota-access-pipeline-permits-court-standing-rock">famous for holding up the Dakota Access Pipeline</a>. Indigenous opposition has always been <a href="https://fernwoodpublishing.ca/book/policing-indigenous-movements">disproportionately criminalized</a>. </p>
<p>Now, under the current states of public health emergency in provinces along the pipeline’s route, acts of land defence and environmental protests are outright illegal. There will be much less need for injunctions or militarized police raids.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135996/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Alberta has modified its environmental rules, becoming the first to do so during the COVID-19 pandemic.Chloe Alexander, PhD Candidate, Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of GuelphAnna Stanley, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1339962020-04-15T13:32:56Z2020-04-15T13:32:56ZAfter the oil shock: Canada’s energy producers need support from Ottawa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327534/original/file-20200413-99788-1ofxnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=185%2C461%2C3520%2C2185&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian oil wells will likely continue to be shut down amid weak prices despite an agreement among major oil producers to limit output. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Buried underneath today’s coronavirus headlines is another shock that may, over the long term, be more consequential to the Canadian economy: the shaky collaboration between <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/saudis-plan-big-oil-output-hike-beginning-all-out-price-war">OPEC and Russia</a> on the amount of oil they collectively dump on the global energy market. </p>
<p>Their former production alliance — cobbled together to help manage global oil prices upon which their respective economies <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/saudi-arabias-vision-2030-reducing-the-dependency-on-oil/">desperately depend</a> — broke down on <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/03/08/813439501/saudi-arabia-stuns-world-with-massive-discount-in-oil-sold-to-asia-europe-and-u-">March 9</a>. </p>
<p>Saudi Arabia began dumping 10 million barrels per day (mbd) on the export market, sparking an all-out price war. Oil prices subsequently dropped between 20 and 30 per cent, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2020/03/09/brace-yourself-for-another-33-drop-in-the-price-of-crude-oil/#302cd25d7ca3">much of it in a single day</a>. Oil-producing countries <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/business/energy-environment/opec-russia-saudi-arabia-oil-coronavirus.html">have since reached a deal to cut production in an effort to stabilize oil prices</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=836&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=836&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=836&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1051&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1051&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327538/original/file-20200413-37259-1576a3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1051&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A woman checks the stocks on the screen at the Dubai Financial Market in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on March 8, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)</span></span>
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<p>The price disruption will still hurt Canada, and the pain will fall particularly hard on Alberta, where producers are still staggering from the 50 per cent drop in prices they suffered more five years ago. At one point, the price of Alberta crude fell below $5 a barrel on global markets. </p>
<p>They also today face relentless environmental criticism for the “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/631f7726-b2b1-11e8-8d14-6f049d06439c">dirty oil</a>” they extract, bickering and indecision from provincial and federal governments, and a long consultative processes with outside stakeholders. </p>
<p>It’s no wonder major energy investors, <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/warren-buffett-reportedly-pulls-out-of-lng-project-in-quebec-due-to-challenges-in-canada">ranging from Teck Resources to Warren Buffet now shun Canada</a>, or that energy companies that once called Canada home <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/encana-leaving-canada-is-a-wake-up-call-for-all-of-us">are now leaving</a>, taking jobs, expertise and tax dollars with them. </p>
<p>Could this perfect storm force Canada out of the oil production game for good? That should not be allowed to happen. It is in Canada’s national interest to remain a significant player in oil and gas production. </p>
<h2>The case for Canadian energy production</h2>
<p>First, the world needs — and will continue to need — carbon-based energy for decades to come. Before the current coronavirus pandemic, global oil consumption measured over 100 mbd, and in the absence of aggressive policy changes, is projected to rise <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019">1.3 per cent per year until 2040, and then decrease</a>. Canada contributes 4.5 mbd to that total, and its proven reserves add stability to a volatile global market. </p>
<p>Second, eliminating Canadian oilsands production will not contribute much to efforts to fight climate change. True, oilsands production is more carbon-intensive than conventional sources. But those emissions fade to irrelevance when evaluating global totals. In 2014, <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/publications/18731">the oilsands contributed to 0.1 per cent of global emissions</a>. Most emissions continue to come from burning, not extracting, oil.</p>
<p>Third, whatever oil Canada stops producing will be replaced by <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/crude-volatility/9780231178143">others whose economies are critically dependent on oil revenue and would be happy to fill the gap</a>. Eliminating oil sands production would damage our economy, contribute little in ameliorating climate change and give a fiscal boost to other oil producers.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-is-just-the-latest-blow-to-oil-producers-133498">The coronavirus is just the latest blow to oil producers</a>
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<p>Finally, we are good at this. Canada’s strength in energy production — in engineering, finance and specialized ancillary services — took decades to build and the sector’s performance still <a href="https://www.tsx.com/listings/listing-with-us/sector-and-product-profiles/energy">matters to anyone who has a pension or exchange-traded mutual fund</a>.</p>
<p>We have also built emerging strengths in environmental, social and governance performance (ESG), which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0170840618765028">investors increasingly care about</a>. This mitigates the “<a href="https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/ross/oilcurse.html">resource curse</a>” and gives us an advantage over many international oil competitors. </p>
<h2>What should we do now?</h2>
<p>First, companies need regulatory clarity. Without this, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emj.2016.06.004">investment in technologies designed to reduce environmental footprints</a> will be choked. </p>
<p>They also need a government that values its oil industry and is committed to helping it get through the current crises and beyond. Economic help could include price supports to keep prices from falling below a certain level, direct investments in companies that could later be sold at a profit or tariffs on imported oil. Others have used such measures effectively, giving plenty of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt207g7cv">historical precedent</a>.</p>
<p>Canadian citizens can help by tempering altruism with realism. We can and should push for greener technologies and sources to take a greater portion of overall energy production. But it will take decades for green energy to fully replace carbon in the energy mix. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, carbon-based energy production generates jobs, taxes and expertise right now and Canadian oil companies can lead in ESG performance. It is OK to promote that too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133996/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Detomasi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is in Canada’s national interest to remain a significant player in the oil and gas production.David Detomasi, Associate Professor, Distinguished Faculty Fellow In International Business, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1334982020-03-17T14:15:49Z2020-03-17T14:15:49ZThe coronavirus is just the latest blow to oil producers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320862/original/file-20200316-27670-1fk4b6m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C233%2C4000%2C1892&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">COVID-19 is resulting in dramatically decreased demand for gasoline and jet fuel, but it's just the latest in a string of bad news for oil producers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the end of February, <a href="https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45">oil prices have plunged</a>, with the base price for West Texas Intermediate (the de facto North American standard) declining from more than US$50 a barrel to less than $30.</p>
<p>The story is much worse for Canadian oil producers. The price of Western Canadian Select has fallen from US$38 a barrel in February to <a href="https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45">US$16.33 a barrel on March 16</a>, a 43 per cent decline in value. </p>
<p>This is a devastating turn of events, particularly for the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-economy-covid-oil-prices-1.5496690">provinces of Alberta</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/oil-price-plunge-newfoundland-labrador-1.5491170">Newfoundland and Labrador</a>, both of which rely heavily on oil exports to drive provincial budgets. </p>
<p>Why is the situation worse for Canada — and what could we do differently?</p>
<h2>Small player</h2>
<p>Total world production of oil in 2019 was about <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php">100.6 million barrels per day</a>, with modest growth to 102.1 million barrels a day expected by the fourth quarter of 2020. Canada is a small player in this market; we produce about <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/crude-oil-facts/20064#L6">4.55 million barrels a day</a>, according to 2018 figures, from conventional, offshore and oilsands sources, with oilsands production (<a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/crude-oil-facts/20064#L6">2.91 million barrels a day</a>) being the greatest contributor. </p>
<p>By comparison, the United States produces 17.87 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia 12.42 million and Russia 11.4 million, according to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6">2019 figures</a>. </p>
<p>Because Canada is a small player, our ability to influence the market is relatively limited. We don’t really have the capacity to quickly increase production at levels that might influence global prices (something that would require at least 100,000 barrels per day of extra production). Indeed, Alberta has <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/oil-production-limit.aspx">limited production through 2020</a> to try to keep prices higher for producers. </p>
<p>The lion’s share of our oil is also marketed exclusively within North America, meaning that we are essentially trading with a single partner, the United States.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-urgent-need-for-canada-to-diversify-its-trade-106244">The urgent need for Canada to diversify its trade</a>
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<p>And the situation in the U.S. has changed dramatically — in 2010, U.S. production was only <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M">about five million barrels a day</a>, while Canadian production was <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/crude-oil-facts/20064#L6">three million barrels per day</a> in the same year. </p>
<p>Growth in U.S. oil production since 2010 has dramatically outstripped Canadian production, making our exports far less critical to overall energy security south of the border. This accounts in large part to the <a href="https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/market-insights/crude-oil-pricing-differentials-why-alberta-crude-sells-at-deep-discount-to-wti">significant discount</a> that Canadian oil receives on the U.S. market. </p>
<p><a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/what-could-happen-if-oil-prices-stay-low">Increased pipeline capacity</a> to move product, particularly to tidewater, might in the long term help to achieve better prices for Canada by increasing the number of markets we can access.</p>
<h2>A multi-year price war</h2>
<p>The rapid price declines observed over the last few weeks are notable, particularly for Canada, but global oil prices have actually been declining for the last year, and at best have been stagnant since the last big price shocks to the system in 2014.</p>
<p>By that year, the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20572">increasing production of shale oil</a> in the United States had led to oil prices falling well below US$100 a barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tried to reverse the declining trend by proposing production cuts, but the Saudi Arabians did not agree — they felt that <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030315/why-did-oil-prices-drop-so-much-2014.asp">keeping production up would squeeze higher-priced oil producers</a> (i.e. American shale producers) out of the marketplace. Lack of agreement among the member nations meant that production levels remained high. </p>
<p>Saudi Arabia’s strategy failed. Prices plummeted into the US$40 to $50 per barrel range and stayed there. Shale oil producers did not disappear and global production levels actually increased, in part because countries like Canada, facing a budget shortfall due to falling prices, <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/11/27/why-is-albertas-oil-so-cheap">pushed for more output</a> in order to make up for the shortfalls in revenues. </p>
<p>By 2016, Saudi Arabia realized that a different approach might be required and led an effort among OPEC members to <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/12/03/opec-reaches-a-deal-to-cut-production">once again cut production</a>. An agreement between OPEC and the largest independent producer, Russia, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting/opec-non-opec-agree-first-global-oil-pact-since-2001-idUSKBN13Z0J8">was a key part of this plan</a> — if Russia did not agree to make cuts, then the plan would not work. Russia came to the table — albeit reluctantly — and a pact to keep production in check was born.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320863/original/file-20200316-27670-n9on0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320863/original/file-20200316-27670-n9on0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320863/original/file-20200316-27670-n9on0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320863/original/file-20200316-27670-n9on0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320863/original/file-20200316-27670-n9on0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320863/original/file-20200316-27670-n9on0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320863/original/file-20200316-27670-n9on0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An Emirati trader passes under the stocks display screen at the Dubai Financial Market in Dubai, United Arab Emirates on March 8, 2020 as the coronavirus threatened global oil prices, airlines and Dubai’s upcoming Expo 2020 world’s fair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)</span></span>
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<p>That pact between OPEC and Russia managed to last about three years, during which global oil prices remained stagnant and production in other non-OPEC nations increased. Inevitably, discussions between OPEC and Russia led to talk of further production cuts, something that is strongly opposed by Russia, which feels such a move would support higher-priced producers, including U.S. shale oil producers. </p>
<p>Russia <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Didnt-Russia-Just-Cut-Oil-Production.html">opposed the most recent OPEC cuts</a> earlier this month. Saudi Arabia responded by actually increasing production, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/aramco-will-boost-oil-output-capacity-to-13-million-barrels-day">potentially by one million barrels a day</a> — a move guaranteed to drive global prices down further.</p>
<h2>Viral wildcard</h2>
<p>Exacerbating the long-term trends in oil prices is the impact of COVID-19. </p>
<p>The coronavirus pandemic is now anticipated to reduce oil demand in the first quarter of 2020 by <a href="https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121230-covid-19-epidemic-forecast-to-strip-global-oil-demand-to-historic-levels-in-1q2020">up to 3.8 million barrels a day</a> compared to last year. Quarantine effects are having a big impact on demand for all kinds of fuel, particularly <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/gas-prices-drop-sharply-amid-growing-uncertainty-with-oil-and-covid-19%7E1921627">gasoline</a> as people stay home and <a href="https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/capa-covid-19-aviation-impact-daily-update---09-mar-2020-516478">aviation fuel</a> as air travel is curtailed. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-oil-shock-of-2020-appears-to-be-here-and-the-pain-could-be-wide-and-deep-133293">The oil shock of 2020 appears to be here – and the pain could be wide and deep</a>
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<p>This is a dramatic decrease that will result in two things: significantly lower prices and a glut of oversupply which could take months or years to clear. </p>
<p>This means that annual oil demand for 2020 is very likely to be lower than what was observed in 2019 — and that lower oil prices are here to stay. </p>
<p>COVID-19 is a huge challenge for the whole world and Canadian oil producers, already suffering from long-term market trends, will be particularly badly hit. But when COVID-19 passes, the underlying challenges — an increasingly competitive global market — will remain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Warren Mabee receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) as well as from the Canada Research Chairs foundation.</span></em></p>COVID-19 is a huge challenge for the whole world, and Canadian oil producers, already suffering from long-term market trends, will be particularly badly hit.Warren Mabee, Director, Queen's Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1210222019-08-26T22:47:16Z2019-08-26T22:47:16ZIndigenous ownership of the Trans Mountain pipeline would safeguard the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289334/original/file-20190826-170922-1tr4itw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4748%2C3113&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pipeline pipes are seen at a Trans Mountain facility near Hope, B.C., on Aug. 22, 2019. Project Reconciliation is an Indigenous-led initiative that seeks to buy a stake in the pipeline.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/commodities/energy/trans-mountain-construction-to-restart-but-prospective-bidders-staying-on-the-sidelines-for-now/wcm/059ab720-3d7e-4b30-af12-2f5c4ea71332">Construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has restarted </a> following <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2019/06/21/trudeau-is-right-to-greenlight-the-trans-mountain-pipeline.html">the reapproval of the project by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government</a>. Proponents of the pipeline, however, say it’s <a href="https://theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-keep-your-champagne-on-ice-when-it-comes-to-building-trans-mountain/wcm/55745948-43d7-42ef-964f-24e957a3a197">too early to celebrate because the pipeline continues to face environmental and Indigenous opposition.</a> </p>
<p>As he announced the resumption, Trudeau stated that his government would be open to Indigenous ownership of the pipeline, ranging from a minority equity stake to a majority stake and all the way to 100 per cent ownership. </p>
<p>Project Reconciliation, an Indigenous-led initiative, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/project-reconciliation-trans-mountain-1.5224374">has submitted an unsolicited proposal to the government for the purchase of a 51 per cent stake of the Trans Mountain pipeline.</a> The government has responded to the proposal by <a href="https://leaderpost.com/business/local-business/ex-enbridge-exec-to-help-advise-feds-consulting-first-nations-on-trans-mountain-financial-stake/wcm/8c3c760e-33d6-4da1-9af5-d99882389294">assembling a committee of experts to advise it on selling a financial stake of the project to First Nations.</a> </p>
<p>Project Reconciliation is a direct response to one of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada’s calls that Indigenous communities <a href="http://trc.ca/assets/pdf/Calls_to_Action_English2.pdf">“gain long-term sustainable benefits from economic development projects.”</a> </p>
<p>I have been working since October 2018 with <a href="https://www.reconciliationpipeline.ca/">Project Reconciliation</a>. Its plan would use the income generated from a stake in Trans Mountain to create an Indigenous sovereign wealth fund.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-trans-mountain-green-light-could-benefit-first-nations-118864">How the Trans Mountain green light could benefit First Nations</a>
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<p>The $7.6 billion needed to acquire the stake in the project would come from a syndicated bond, essentially a loan, based on the pipeline assets and long-term contracts in place to ship oil from Alberta to the marine terminal in Burnaby, B.C.</p>
<p>It would involve neither taxpayer money nor place upfront costs on First Nations communities.</p>
<h2>Progressive way forward</h2>
<p>Some environmental and Indigenous groups continue to oppose Trans Mountain regardless of Indigenous ownership or environmental protection measures taken. But as the government works on developing <a href="https://www.burnabynow.com/news/trans-mountain-earned-48-million-over-four-month-period-1.23812222">a plan to divest Trans Mountain</a>, Project Reconciliation is presenting a progressive, constructive way forward that addresses both Indigenous and environmental concerns.</p>
<p>It involves real economic, social and cultural reconciliation with Western Canada’s Indigenous people. It will help Canada lead the world in reducing carbon emissions from oil production and transport. And it will protect the British Columbia coastline using cutting-edge Western science and Indigenous traditional ecological knowledge. </p>
<p>Michelle Corfield, my co-author, is an Indigenous woman from the Ucluelet First Nation, part of the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council on Vancouver Island, and is Project Reconciliation’s British Columbia marine and environmental adviser. We come from different backgrounds but are committed to Project Reconciliation because we believe it is the right answer to the Western Canadian pipeline impasse. </p>
<p>Not only will Project Reconciliation help bring prosperity to Indigenous communities and preserve their cultural values, it is an environmentally sound plan. It will help establish Canada as an environmentally responsible leader as the globe transitions to lower carbon.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289336/original/file-20190826-170946-4s659f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289336/original/file-20190826-170946-4s659f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289336/original/file-20190826-170946-4s659f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289336/original/file-20190826-170946-4s659f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289336/original/file-20190826-170946-4s659f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289336/original/file-20190826-170946-4s659f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289336/original/file-20190826-170946-4s659f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pipeline pipes are seen at a Trans Mountain facility near Hope, B.C., on Aug. 22, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Indigenous leadership of Project Reconciliation is committed to mitigating climate change.</p>
<p>As owners of Trans Mountain, Indigenous leadership would demand all shippers on the pipeline adhere to the highest emissions standards. It would press Canada’s oilsands industry to <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/feature/innovation-energy-oilsands-step-up-to-take-on-clean-tech-challenge">continue to develop new technologies to reduce emissions</a> and to disseminate these technologies worldwide to mitigate global climate change. </p>
<p>All of this would create international Canadian business opportunities and jobs exporting technology and know-how. </p>
<h2>Innovations in the Canadian oil industry</h2>
<p>My colleagues and I at the University of Calgary and the State University of New York have studied how the Canadian oil industry, faced with economic competitive cost pressures and social pressures to reduce emissions, is innovating in research and development and achieving technological breakthroughs. </p>
<p>These studies, published in the journal <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2017.01.002"><em>Technovation</em> </a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jengtecman.2019.08.001"><em>Journal of Engineering and Technology Management</em></a> and the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1504/IJEIM.2015.068424"><em>International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation</em> </a> show how the industry uses cutting-edge, open innovation approaches involving multiple energy companies — along with more conventional single firm research-and-development initiatives — to develop new technologies aimed at reducing emissions and costs. </p>
<p>These approaches focus on increasing the energy efficiency of oil extraction.</p>
<p>I’ve also co-authored several studies with colleagues at the China University of Petroleum-Beijing, published in the international journals <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en10050614"><em>Energies</em></a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.039"><em>Journal of Cleaner Production</em></a>, that provide peer-reviewed evidence that the Canadian oilsands industry has been actively achieving <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/5/614">measurable results of increased energy efficiency</a> and <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/ihs-report-forecasts-16-to-23-per-cent-emissions-intensity-drop-for-oilsands">reduced emissions intensity</a>.</p>
<p>The studies also show that the industry is approaching the average energy efficiency and <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/publications/18731">emissions per barrel of all global oils</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Dirty oil’ no longer applies</h2>
<p>This means that the label “dirty oil,” sometimes used by opponents to describe the oilsands, is no longer applicable. Canadian oilsands-derived <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-03-10/shale-oil-boom-leaves-the-world-awash-in-light-sweet-crude">heavy oil, much in demand</a>, is no dirtier than average oil. </p>
<p>And if Canada doesn’t supply the global market demand for heavy oil, that demand will be met by other heavy oil-producing nations, like Russia or Angola, that are not developing technologies for emissions reductions. They also have much poorer environmental and social responsibility records.</p>
<p>For more than 20 years, I have teamed up with ecologists, biologists, sociologists and economists in studying protection of ecosystems and the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/keystone-species/">role of keystone species</a> like whales. In our studies published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.8.4.381"><em>Organization Science</em></a> and the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJSE.2010.033398"><em>International Journal of Sustainable Economy</em></a>, we found that collaboration between government, university scientists, resource industries and local communities was paramount. </p>
<p>And in a study published in <a href="https://digitalcommons.colby.edu/faculty_scholarship/44"><em>Ecology and Society</em></a>, we determined that scientists often have difficulty accessing sufficiently diverse bodies of information, and the knowledge necessary to develop effective conservation policies aimed at protecting vulnerable species.</p>
<p>Recognizing that Indigenous communities could fill that void, a study I coauthored in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-004-3528-8"><em>Journal of Business Ethics</em> applied these ideas to a case study in the coastal temperate rainforest</a> of Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia. </p>
<p>In this case, a scientific panel comprised of Nuu-Chah-Nulth elders, forest scientists and management professionals achieved full consensus in 1994 on developing sustainable forest practice standards <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/natural-resource-use/land-water-use/crown-land/land-use-plans-and-objectives/westcoast-region/clayoquotsound-lud/clayoquot_lud_scientificpanelrpt_tor_principles.pdf">by drawing equally on Indigenous traditional ecological knowledge and Western science.</a> This consensus was achieved amid one of the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/clayoquot-sound">most heated and protracted environmental conflicts in Canadian history.</a> </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289337/original/file-20190826-170931-1b5l868.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289337/original/file-20190826-170931-1b5l868.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289337/original/file-20190826-170931-1b5l868.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289337/original/file-20190826-170931-1b5l868.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289337/original/file-20190826-170931-1b5l868.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289337/original/file-20190826-170931-1b5l868.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289337/original/file-20190826-170931-1b5l868.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-logging protester is carried away by RCMP after being arrested for blocking Macmillan Bloedel logging trucks at the entrance to Clayoquot Valley in July 1993.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(CP PHOTO/Chuck Stoody)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The resulting sustainable forest practice standards were later adopted by leading forestry firms operating on the coast.</p>
<p>The B.C. coastline is home to more than 135 First Nations communities. It’s important that Indigenous leaders and communities play a significant role in protecting it.</p>
<p>Project Reconciliation will train First Nations people. It will build technical capacity using the latest Western scientific techniques as well as traditional knowledge to strengthen their role as environmental guardians. </p>
<p>The initiative also supports the <a href="https://www.fnfisheriescouncil.ca/">First Nations Fisheries Council’s Marine and Environmental Response Program</a> to train and certify marine and environmental response workers in coastal First Nations communities, and to connect them to employment opportunities across the marine sector. </p>
<p>First Nations have an important environmental role to play, from operating the tugboats that accompany tankers through coastal water to monitoring and maintaining high-tech systems that ensure rigorous marine safety. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Michelle Corfield of the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council on Vancouver Island co-authored this article. She is Project Reconciliation’s British Columbia marine and environmental adviser.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span> Harrie Vredenburg is an executive board member of Project Reconciliation. He is also a member of the board of directors of Prairie Thunder Resources Ltd, representing Thunderchild First Nation's equity stake. He receives funding from the Suncor Foundation which sponsors his Suncor Chair in Strategy & Sustainability at the Haskayne School of Business at the University of Calgary. He has also received funding in the past from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and, while a professor at McGill University's Desautels Faculty of Management, from the Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies (FRQNT).</span></em></p>Project Reconciliation is a direct response to one of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s calls that Indigenous communities ‘gain long-term sustainable benefits from economic development projects.’Harrie Vredenburg, Professor & Suncor Chair in Strategy & Sustainability, Haskayne School of Business; Research Fellow, School of Public Policy, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.